At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (533) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (534) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-31) looks to rebound from their 99-90 loss to the Suns as a 2.5-point favorite in Game One of this series on Sunday. Phoenix (52-21) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINT(S): We expected Los Angeles to be flat in Game One after getting a moment to exhale after surviving the Play-In Tournament (and the grind to avoid the ninth or tenth seed which would have required two straight victories. Anthony Davis had one of his worst games of the season by making only 5 of his 16 shots from the field with the Lakers getting outscored by 18 when he was on the floor. He will play better tonight. Los Angeles is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have veered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. LeBron James has been in this spot before where his team lost Game One in one of the first three rounds of the playoffs. His teams are 39-12 straight up in Game Twos after an opening game loss — and they are 33-16-2 ATS in those spots. Even better, since the 2012-13 season, James’ teams are 19-2 straight-up and 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 playoff games (excluding the NBA Finals) in Game Two after dropping Game One. The Lakers have been good on the road with a 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games when favored. And while the Lakers had won six in a row before this loss, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Phoenix may be due for a letdown after taking the lead in this series. They are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win. Learning how to handle short-term success may be one of the challenges this team will have to learn how to deal with given their playoff inexperience. By holding the Lakers to just 43.4% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last 14 contests. Chris Paul will likely play with his right shoulder injury — it looks like a stinger injury which will likely impact his shot. He had trouble moving his arm after the injury on Sunday. Paul is not likely to be close to 100%.

FINAL TAKE: Paul is the glue for this to offer them playoff experience — so this is a tough injury. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 home games when favored by up to six points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Lakers (533) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (524) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (523) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (47-26) looks to bounce-back from their 123-109 upset loss to the Trail Blazers in Game One of this series on Saturday. Portland (43-30) has won seven of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Nuggets have lost two games in a row to the Blazers after losing at Portland last Sunday by a 132-116 score to close out the regular season. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a win against a Northwest Division rival. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. And this remains a team that is just 13-29-2 ATS in their last 44 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when trailing in a playoff series. And in their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss a home, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (524) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (522) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-33) has lost two of their last three games after dropping the opening game of this series by a 109-107 score as a 5.5-point favorite. Milwaukee (47-26) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami was in a position to win Game One despite Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combining to make only 8 of their 37 shots from the field. The team only hit 36.4% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 32 games. They will shoot better tonight. The Heat are better than their 40-33 record after enduring a season impacted by injuries and COVID issues. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee played their best defensive game in their last 25 contests by holding Miami to just 36.4% shooting. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory at home by three points or less. Additionally, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bucks have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games playoff games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (52-20) goes into the postseason with seven wins in their last nine games after their 121-99 victory at Sacramento as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday. Memphis (40-34) has won seven of their last eight games after their upset 117-112 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should build off the momentum from last week — they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win. They have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Jazz hope that their star point guard Donovan Mitchell returns to the court tonight — he is listed as probable. Without him, the Utah Train did not derail. The Jazz won ten of their fifteen games after Mitchell’s ankle injury — and their +9.8 Net Rating over that span was tops in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating of 106.2 in their last 15 games is the best mark in the NBA. Utah is also third in the league in Offensive Rating due to a bevy of 3-point shooters. The Jazz average 43.3 shots from behind the arc per game — and they are fourth in the NBA by making 38.9% of these shots. The Grizzlies are 18th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Utah returns home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Memphis may be due for a letdown after their whirlwind week which included winning two straight single-elimination games. The team racked up the frequent flier miles — traveling from San Francisco last Sunday (after playing the Warriors to close out the regular season) back to Memphis to Los Angeles on Friday and now Salt Lake City. Playing at the higher altitude won’t help their cause either after this grueling week. As it is, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Utah swept the three-game regular-season encounters between these two teams. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (514) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (513) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-21) enters the postseason on a three-game winning streak after their 123-121 win at San Antonio as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (43-30) survived the Play-In Tournament with their 103-100 win at home against Golden State as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t like this situation for the defending champions. Getting by the Warriors absolved them from the potential embarrassment of not making the playoffs. Now they have the luxury of a seven-game series — and I think they will exhale just a little bit after being in playoff mode for the last few weeks trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win at home. The Lakers are still not in-synch on the offensive end of the court just yet. They have only registered an offensive efficiency rate above 109.8 points per 100 possessions once in their last five games — and that was against an Indiana team that has been a train wreck on defense since losing Myles Turner to a season-ending injury. For context, 109.8 points per 100 possessions are what the Lakers averaged during their injury-riddled season which was just 24th in the league — so underachieving versus that meager number even with LeBron James and Anthony Davis back on the court is not good, Bob. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games with the total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 playoff games as an underdog. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns are an offensive juggernaut that finished sixth in the NBA by scoring at a 117.7 points per 100 possession rate. They have made 47.2% or more of their shots in five straight games with a 51.0% or better mark in four of those games. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on May 9th when the Suns were upset at Los Angeles by a 123-110 score as a 7-point favorite. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Phoenix TNT Special with the Phoenix Suns (514) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (508) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (507) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (49-23) enters the postseason with two straight victories after their 128-117 victory against Orlando as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (35-i39) made the playoffs with their 142-115 win against Indiana as a 4.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philly is cruising with ten wins in their last twelve games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games. The 76ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when they have at least three days of rest — so this group should be rested and ready. The Sixers are dominant on their home court where they are 29-7 with a net +8.9 Points-Per-Game differential. They make 48.6% of their shots at home which helps them generate 117.4 PPG. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5. Additionally, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Washington made 58.1% of their shots in their blowout win against a Pacers’ team that could not play defense after losing their rim protector, Myles Turner, to a season-ending injury. The Wizards made 58.1% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. I expect a significant emotional letdown for this team after two Play-In Tournament games last week. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with two or more days of rest. The Wizards are much better than their losing record suggests because they have been hampered by injuries all season. But size remains a problem for this team — they really miss Thomas Bryant who suffered a season-ending injury early in the year. Defense and rebounding are liabilities for this team. Joel Embiid should dominate this game. While their defense and rebounding have improved, it is still middle of the pack at best — which is not great when playing the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards rank 12th in Defensive Rating over their last 15 games. They also rank 19th in Defensive Rebounding during that span. This is a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia also has not been healthy for much of the season but this team enters the postseason in as good a shape as they have been all season. Embiid is rested. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored — and the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. 10* NBA Washington-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (508) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (511) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (512). THE SITUATION: Portland (42-30) has won six of their last seven games after their 132-116 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (47-25) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss, but they avoided a first-round matchup with the Lakers which may have impacted their short-term motivation in that game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Portland is a team that was impacted by a barrage of injuries throughout the regular season. C.J. McCollum missed 25 games. Jusuf Nurcic missed the early part of the season — and his absence impacted the overall defensive numbers for this team. The Blazers hold their opponents to -8.7 Points-Per-100 Possessions below their PPP defensive average when Nurcic is off the court. Portland has been in playoff mode to close out the regular season to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Getting healthy again has helped. They have won ten of their last twelve games while posting the second-best Net Rating in the NBA over that span. The Blazers have the best Offensive Rating in the league during that stretch — but it is the defensive numbers that may be more important. While Portland ranks 29th in Defensive Rating for the season, they improved to 15th in their last 12 games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Portland has been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Portland has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. While Michael Porter has stepped up his game with the scoring burden increased on him, this is a playoff series where the Nuggets will really miss Jamal Murray who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. While Portland’s Damian Lillard and McCollum are a lethal backcourt duo on offense, they can be exploited on the defensive end of the court. Denver lacks dominant scoring threats in their backcourt without Murray — and the injury shooting guard Will Barton who will miss tonight’s game compounds this problem. Austin Rivers is also questionable with an illness so the Nuggets’ are thin at the guard position which only increases their defensive challenge in slowing down Lillard and McCollum. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And not having their top point guard in Murray has hurt the team down the stretch — they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. While the Blazers had more at stake in their contest on Sunday since the victory ensured they avoided the Play-In, it remains telling that the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Year with the Portland Trail Blazers (511) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (503) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (504) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-32) enters the playoffs having won five of their last six games with their 120-107 victory at Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Milwaukee (46-26) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 118-112 upset loss at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami is playing their best basketball of the season after enduring a regular-season hit hard by injuries and COVID issues. Jimmy Butler was load-managed for much of the season — he did not play in any of the three regular-season games against the Bucks. The Heat will be very confident in this series after disposing of Milwaukee in the playoff bubble last fall. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Miami has been reliable on the road — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home. They have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after an upset loss as a road favorite laying seven or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after a point spread loss. And while the Bucks have still won three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three of their last four. Milwaukee has not been a reliable favorite so far this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee got some measure of revenge from getting upset by the Heat in last year’s playoffs by winning two of the three meetings with Miami. The Bucks won the last encounter on May 15th by a 122-108 score — but the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (503) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (579) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (580). THE SITUATION: Memphis (39-34) has won six of their last seven games after their 100-96 win against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (39-34) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 103-100 loss at Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and a first-round date with Utah.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: I really like this spot for Memphis — a young but very talented team that has experience playing in these single elimination games from the bubble last season. We had the Spurs on Wednesday — I mentioned then that the Grizzlies have not been a reliable favorite. But they have been consistent when donning the role of the underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a dog. They will not have any pressure in this game with most of the world (and the betting public) assuming that Stephen Curry will carry his team to a comfortable victory. Ja Morant is a rising superstar. The Grizzlies also have a good interior player in Jonas Valancianas who can take advantage of the lack of size of the Warriors. The seven-footer is averaging 22.0 PPG while grabbing 15.4 Rebounds-Per-Game in his last five games. He scored 29 points against Golden State in their most recent game last Sunday. Injuries have depleted the Warriors’ depth at center so it will be Draymond Green who will likely be defending Valancianas. Green is a great defender, but he is only 6’6. Memphis will also have an edge on the boards — they lead the NBA by averaging 55.8 points in the paint per game. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a Southwest Division rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. And while Memphis has played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Golden State may have blown their playoff chances on Wednesday considering they had a double-digit lead at halftime — and they were up 98-85 with just 2:30 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They held the Lakers to just 40.7% shooting which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Now they are expected to get past the upstart Grizzlies. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Golden State struggles against teams who rebound — they have the fourth-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA and they allow the fourth-most second-chance points in the league. The Warriors are also 24th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 14.7% of their possessions — not a great trait in a favorite. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 61 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (579) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (576) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (575). THE SITUATION: Washington (34-39) lost their initial Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday in a 118-105 loss at Boston as a 1.5-point underdog. Indiana (35-38) has won four of their last six games after their 144-117 win against Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite in their first game in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington only made 43.5% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They should respond with a better shooting performance tonight. The Wizards are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Washington returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indiana made 16 of their 35 shots (46%) from 3-point range en route to their 55.2% shooting percentage in their victory against the Pacers -- that shooting mark was the best effort in their last seven games. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. And while the Pacers have nailed at least 50.5% of their shots in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight contests. Indiana is far full strength for this game. Caris LeVert is still out due to COVID quarantine protocols. Malcolm Brogdon played 21:20 minutes in his first action on the court in eleven games this month — but he is not close to 100% with his hamstring injury. As it is, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in the playoffs. Despite the blowout victory against Charlotte, the Pacers have a volatile locker room with the team griping about head coach Nate Bjorkgren after they drove out Nate McMillan last year. Scott Brooks has a better culture in place with Washington — look for the Wizards to bounce-back. 10* NBA Indiana-Washington TNT Special with the Washington Wizards (576) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (569). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (42-30) has won five in a row with their 110-98 win at New Orleans on Sunday. Golden State (39-33) has won six straight games after their 113-101 win against Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game inherits the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoffs while the loser will face the winner of the earlier San Antonio-Memphis game to determine the eighth seed.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: While the Lakers are disappointed to have to compete in the Play-In Tournament, this was a team that was always built for the postseason anyways. I am just not going to read much into their 42-30 record especially given all the time that LeBron James and Anthony Davis missed. Winning this game decisively is important — not only to get the extra days of rest by avoiding the Friday single-elimination game but also because they know how dangerous Stephen Curry can be in a close game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a win on the road. The Lakers play outstanding defense — they are second in the NBA by allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They also defend the perimeter by limiting their opponents to 36% shooting from 3-point land which is -1.2% below the league average. Los Angeles is in as good a position as possible to slow down Curry. Dennis Schroder is a pesky on-the-ball defender. LeBron James can play free safety amidst the Warriors’ attempts to pick-and-roll. Anthony Davis can play center in a small-ball lineup which gives Golden State another lengthy wing on the perimeter but without sacrificing Davis’ rim protection since he can defend the wing as well given his agility. Frank Vogel is an experienced defensive tactician as a head coach. And the roster is filled with veterans who have played the Steve Kerr motion offense designed to get Curry (and Klay Thompson) open looks. The Lakers also retain a significant size advantage against the Warriors. They controlled the boards in their three meetings against Golden State this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six straight games in their furious pace down the stretch to ensure they qualified for the Play-In Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (568). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (33-39) limps into the postseason with four straight losses after their 123-121 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (38-34) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 113-101 loss at Golden State as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio has lost ten of their last twelve games — but that does not worry me too much. Head coach Gregg Popovich has had one eye towards developing the young talent on his team for the future. This is a hard-working team with a versatile roster which will allow Popovich many options to keep his team in this single-elimination game. And with DeMar DeRozan leading the way alongside the underrated Dejounte Murray, the Spurs have veteran experience that can make big baskets. San Antonio is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least four games in a row. The days of rest should help this team as well — they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has been capable road warriors this season — they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 road games with the Total set at 220. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games against divisional rivals. Memphis has won six of their last eight games even after Sunday’s loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Grizzlies return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This Memphis team has a very bright future — but I prefer them in the underdog role right now, in general. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. This team’s clutch numbers are underwater — they have a Net Rating of -6.1 in clutch time which is just 21st in the NBA. This makes their ability to pull away in close games harder to pull off. It is telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13  home games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has dominated the last two meetings with the Spurs this season. They followed up a 129-112 upset win on the road as a 3.5-point underdog on January 30th with a 133-102 victory in San Antonio as a 4-point underdog on February 1st. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by at least 30 points. And in their last 9 opportunities at revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent, the Spurs have covered the point spread 6 times. Trust Pop tonight. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (562) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (561). THE SITUATION: Boston (36-36) limps into the postseason with five losses in their last six games after their 96-92 loss at New York as a 12-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (34-38) has won two games in a row after their 115-110 win against Charlotte as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston has been one of the biggest disappointments in the regular season with their inconsistent play. Too often this season, the Celtics’ players took games off — especially on defense. But this is a team that has been hit hard by injuries and COVID quarantining issues. Their ability to make a deep playoff run took a big hit with the season-ending injury to Jaylen Brown. But this is a veteran team with plenty of playoff experience that should be able to step up their game to secure the seventh seed tonight. Kemba Walker is finally playing better after a disappointing regular season — he is scoring 29.8 PPG on 50.6% shooting in his last four games. The acquisition of Evan Fournier at the trade deadline has been proven as he has averaged 18.6 PPG on 46.9% shooting since joining the Celtics. And with Jayson Tatum leading the way, Boston will have the best player on the court (especially at crunch time). The Celtics have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after losing five or six of their last seven games — including ten of these last eleven situations. Boston has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Celtics return home after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least three in a row away from home. Washington held the Hornets to just 39.4% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 28 games. But the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win against a divisional rival. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games after a point spread loss. Bradley Beal is not 100% with a nagging hamstring, but he will play tonight. That puts more of the onus on Russell Westbrook who is a triple-double machine — but his judgment is too often lacking in crunch-time as he tries to do too much (like test his poor 3-point shooting skills). There is a reason that the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when listed at +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Washington plays at one of the fastest paces in the league — they average 91 shots per game. But Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games in the second half of the season against teams who attempt at least 88 shots per game. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games of a playoff series under head coach Brad Stevens. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (562) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (33-39) goes into this play-in tournament game with five straight losses after their 115-110 loss at Washington as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (34-38) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 125-113 win at Toronto as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road to a Southeast Division rival. The Hornets only made 39.4% of their shots on Sunday which was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not shooting better than 42% in three straight games. Charlotte allowed the Wizards to make 48.4% of their shots as well which was still the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last three games. The Hornets have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Despite them losing seven of their last nine games, I like the direction this team is going in under their underrated head coach James Borrego. Lamelo Ball is the real deal. Terry Rozier was a great signing in the offseason who can drop 40 points on any given night. Miles Bridges is developing. Charlotte has covered the point spread in a decisive 42 of their last 66 games after losing at least two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. The Hornets are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The Pacers are playing at a fast pace in an effort to simply outgun their opponents after losing their defensive presence in the middle with the season-ending injury to Myles Turner. Indiana has scored at least 115 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. The Pacers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games as a favorite. This is a mess — riddled with injuries and filled with internal drama. The players don’t like first-year head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They didn’t like Nate McMillan either who is not doing a great job with the Atlanta Hawks. Sabonis is questionable with a quad injury. Malcolm Brogdon is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury after missing ten games this month. Even if he plays, it remains a question as to how effective he will be. Caris LeVert is out due to COVID quarantine protocols. This is not the way a team wants to approach a single-elimination game that has previously failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight postseason games.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana can go home for the summer with a loss, winch may look appealing since they are going nowhere in the first round of the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Charlotte upset the Pacers in the last meeting by a 114-97 score on April 2nd as a 5-point underdog — but Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (571) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (572). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (47-22) had their eight-game winning streak snapped with their 103-94 upset loss at Indiana on Tuesday. Miami (38-31) has won three straight as well as six of their last seven games with their 129-121 win at Boston as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Philly made only 43.7% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The 76ers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. Philadelphia is also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. I waited to pull the proverbial trigger on this play for the late news on the status of Joel Embiid who is questionable with an illness. The word tonight is that he will play. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 210s. Miami comes off a victory against the Celtics with the Heat making a season-high 59.3% of their shots. They also nailed 16 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. It will be hard to keep up that high level of efficiency in their shooting — especially if Jimmy Butler is not available tonight. Butler is questionable after suffering an eye injury on Tuesday. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Heat are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games with the Total set in the 210s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Miami will be looking to avenge a 125-108 loss at Philadelphia on January 14th. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Philadelphia-Miami TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (571) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (552) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (551). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (38-31) has won four of their last five games after their 125-124 win against the Wizards as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Washington (32-37) has their two-game winning streak end with the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Wizards made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc on Monday while making 51.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Expect a visit from the Regression God’s to Hotlanta tonight for a team that makes only 36.3% of their 3-pointers who will be without Bradley Beal again who is out with a hamstring injury. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game straight-up. The Wizards have played six straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least three straight Over. Not having Beal and his 31.4 PPG will hurt this Washington team that made their game on Monday much closer than expected due to a furious fourth-quarter rally. The Wizards trailed by a 96-79 score after the third quarter before making 17 of their 24 shots in the final twelve minutes while watching Atlanta make only 8 of their 23 shots. Washington outscored the Hawks by a 45-29 margin in the fourth. But the Wizards have still lost ten of their eleven games this season playing without Beal while posting a -10.7 Net Rating in those games. Washington scores 115.7 points per 100 possessions with Beal on the court — but those numbers decline to them scoring 104.7 points per 100 possessions without Beal. In their ten games without Beal this season, the Wizards have an Offensive Rating of 103.5. Atlanta should learn their let-up in the fourth quarter on Monday. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home by three points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after a win against a Southeast Division rival. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. Atlanta should shoot better from 3-point land after making only 10 of their 30 shots from behind the arc on Monday. The Hawks need to tighten up on defense after allowing the Wizards to shoot 51% which was on the heels of them allowing the Pacers to nail 62.1% of their shots. Those two efforts were the worst defensive performances in their last six games. Atlanta stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 home games when favored. And in their last 10 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Washington averages 116.6 PPG while allowing 118.8 PPG — and the Hawks thrive in higher-scoring games. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 106 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 106 PPG. 10* NBA Washington-Atlanta ESPN Special with the Atlanta Hawks (552) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (572). THE SITUATION: Memphis (33-33) has lost three of their last four games with their 111-97 upset loss at Detroit as a 9-point favorite on Thursday. Toronto (27-40) has lost two in a row as well as five of their last six contests with their 131-129 loss to Washington as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis allowed the Pistons to make 53.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 18 contests. Memphis should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering an upset loss by 10 or more points. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. This team plays hard for head coach Taylor Jenkins. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. Additionally, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Raptors have lost six of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Toronto has likely played themselves out of reach to qualify for the play-in tournament with this recent slide. Their defense is letting them down — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.6% of their shots which has resulted in their opponent’s averaging 115.4 PPG. Head coach Nick Nurse is giving Fred VanVleet and Kevin Lowry the night off for rest — and OG Anunoby is out with a calf injury to leave the roster thin for tonight’s game. The Raptors have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set in the 220s — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 128-113 loss at home to Toronto on February 8th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (563) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (564). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (31-34) has lost five games in a row with their 126-94 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Sacramento (29-37) has won four games in a row after their 104-93 win at Indiana as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS MINUS THE POINTS: San Antonio made only 40.2% of their shots on Wednesday which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last 37 games. The Spurs have bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. San Antonio was outworked on the glass against the Jazz as they got out-rebounded by 18 rebounds. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after being out-rebounded by at least 15 rebounds in their last game. San Antonio was blasted by Utah in the first game of their two-game series by a 110-99 score back on May 3rd — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row by double-digits. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing at least four in a row. They stay on the road where they are 12-4-1 ATS In their last 17 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored. Sacramento has fake to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as an underdog getting at least six points. They return home where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings are not at full strength with De’Aron Fox in COVID quarantine, Tyrese Haliburton out indefinitely with a knee injury, and Harrison Barnes doubtful with a hip injury. The Kings are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Antonio Spurs (563) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (554) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (553). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (32-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 120-99 loss at home to Chicago as a 4.5-point underdog last night. Orlando (21-45) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 132-96 loss at home to Boston as a 12-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 49 games after losing two of their last three games. And while Charlotte has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Despite their recent disappointing play, the Hornets are getting healthy again with Lamelo Ball and Malik Monk returning to action. They are still without Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges — and Devonte Graham is out tonight with a knee injury. But this team plays hard for their underrated head coach James Borrego. Charlotte stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home by at least 20 points. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 30 points. They are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Since trading away their best players at the trade deadline, this franchise is in tank mode. They entered the week with the second-worst offense in the NBA since the trade deadline — and they are a M*A*S*H* unit tonight. Six players have been declared out tonight including Otto Porter, Michael Carter-Williams, and Wendell Carter. As it is, this team is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte usually takes care of business against the lesser teams in the league — they are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games under Borrego against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (554) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (545). THE SITUATION: The Clippers (44-22) ended their three-game losing streak with a 105-100 victory at home against Toronto as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Lakers (37-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 93-89 upset win against Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. The Clippers (44-22) ended their three-game losing streak with a 105-100 victory at home against Toronto as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Clippers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while that game finished below the 217.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after playing their last game Under the Total. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at the Staples Center. The Lakers held the Nuggets to just 43.9% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Lakers are the technical road team but they are playing on their shared home court with the Clippers at the Staples Center. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games at home with the Total set in the 210s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. They will be missing two important pieces to their offensive attack with both LeBron James and Dennis Schroder out for this game.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (529) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (530). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (31-33) has lost four games in a row after their 110-99 loss on the road against the Jazz as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Utah (47-18) has won three of their last four games with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio has bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. The Spurs stay on the road where they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. They will be without Trey Lyles and Derrick White tonight but the head coach Gregg Popovich has a role for every player on his roster. Yet San Antonio's five of their last seven losses have been by six or less even after Monday’s 11-point setback. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored. Utah remains undermanned in their backcourt with Donovan Mitchell out with his ankle injury — and Mike Conley has been downgraded to out tonight with his lingering hamstring issue.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 30 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 20* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Antonio Spurs (529) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (514) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (513). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-22) has lost three games in a row with their 110-104 upset loss to Denver as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Toronto (27-38) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 121-114 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has bounced back to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after an upset loss. And while the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have allowed their last three opponents to make at least 47.3% of their shots — but they then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored. Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. The Raptors stay on the road for this second game at the Staples Center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (514) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (505) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (506). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (42-22) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 117-114 loss on the road against the Bucks on Sunday as a 2-point underdog. Milwaukee (40-24) has won two in a row and five of their last seven games with that win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn made only 42.7% of their shots on Sunday after shooting just 42.1% of their shots on Friday — both these marks are far below the 49.2% mark they enjoy for the season. They should shoot better tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Nets have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have allowed at least 113 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games after allowing their last three opponents to score at least 110 points. Brooklyn stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. The Nets have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games this season — and they will have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving suiting up tonight. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning five or six of their last 7 games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to 6 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They will be without Jeff Teague with an abdominal injury.

FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (505) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (577) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (578). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (31-32) has lost three in a row after their 113-111 loss to Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog yesterday. Utah (46-18) has won two of their last three games with their 106-102 win against Toronto as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Spurs have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win. And in their last 8 games played without rest, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 6 of these contests. They go back on the road where they hare 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Spurs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Jazz has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be without Trey Lyles who is dealing with an ankle injury — but Dejounte Murray has been upgraded to probable. Michael Conley has been downgraded to out tonight which leaves the Jazz thin in their backcourt with Donovan Mitchell out with his ankle injury. The Spurs will be motivated to avenge a 130-109 loss at home to Utah on January 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the San Antonio Spurs (577) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (549) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (550). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (43-21) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 128-109 loss to Portland as a 3-point underdog. Milwaukee (39-24) has won two of their last three games with their 108-98 win at Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn was without Kevin Durant on Friday as he was given the night off by head coach Steve Nash with the team playing without rest. Durant did play three games last week — so he has back in the mix. The Nets only made 42.1% of their shots against the Trail Blazers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. They also allowed Portland to make 51.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Nets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Nets have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee held the Bulls to just 38.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. Milwaukee returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by up to six points. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams who are wining at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 125-123 upset loss to the Nets on the road as a 3.5-point favorite on January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 110 points. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. 10* NBA Brooklyn-Milwaukee ABC-TV Special with the Brooklyn Nets (549) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-21) has lost two games in a row with their 109-101 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (42-21) has won four in a row after their 121-111 win against Toronto as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Kawhi Leonard has missed the last three games due to a foot injury — but he expects to play tonight in this crucial game for seeding in the Western Conference playoffs. As it is, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 55 games after a point spread loss. Their loss to the Suns finished well below the 220 point Total — and LA has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games at home after playing an Under in their last game. They return home to the Staples Center where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 road games after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three games in a row at home. The Nuggets are undermanned in their backcourt and at wing with Will Barton and Monte Morris out — and Jamal Murray is already out the season with his torn ACL.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will have revenge on their minds from their 101-94 upset loss at home to the Nuggets on April 1st — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 59 games when motivated to avenge a loss. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (519). THE SITUATION: Memphis (31-30) has lost two in a row after their 130-109 upset loss to Portland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Orlando (19-43) ended a six-game losing streak with their 109-104 upset win at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis made only 42% of their shots on Wednesday which was tied for the lowest shooting effort in their last 18 games. The 48.9% field goal percentage of the Trail Blazers was also the highest opponent’s shooting mark in their last five games. They should bounce-back with a strong effort. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on their home court. They are relatively healthy right now — Jalen Jackson remains out and Grayson Allen is doubtful as he deals with a hand injury. By April 2021 NBA standards, only two missing players is considered very healthy. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Orlando made 50.6% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 21 games. And by holding the Cavaliers to 40.2% shooting, they played the best game on defense in 31 contests. But the Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games after losing at least two of their last three games. Orlando will be without seven of their players tonight with Otto Porter, Terrence Ross, and Michael-Carter Williams all declared out. This is a team that is full-tank mode after they traded away their veterans at the trade deadline.

FINAL TAKE: Orlando is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and Memphis has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games as a favorite. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (513) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (514). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (34-29) has lost two games in a row with their 127-83 loss at Philadelphia as a 9.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (41-21) has won two in a row with that victory against the Hawks.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: I needed to wait on the injury update this evening for Atlanta — they are just riddled with injuries right now which goes a long way to explain their 44-point loss to the 76ers on Wednesday. The Hawks announced at 6 PM ET that Trae Young will be available to play which is an upgrade to his being listed as questionable throughout the day. Clint Capela is also available to play — and Tony Snell is probable as well after missing a bunch of time with his ankle injury. Atlanta is still banged up — but the availability of these three players makes a big difference for this team that is getting around 7 points (as of this writing). The Hawks played one of the worst games of the season on Wednesday. Their 33.3% shooting percentage was the worst effort in their last 41 games. They allowed the Sixers to make 53.9% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Atlanta has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Atlanta stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing two games i a row on the road. Philadelphia may be due for a letdown after such an easy win — they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Hawks to just 33.3% shooting. But the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Philly has won two games in a row after their 121-90 victory against an Oklahoma City team that is a glorified collection of G-Leaguers. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after winning two in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two in a row by 10 or more points at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after covering their last two games as a favorite. The Sixers have made 54.7% and 53.9% of their shots in the last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after shooting at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Philly stays at home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as a favorite. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, they are 1-4-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by at least 30 points to their opponent. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Atlanta Hawks (513) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (509) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (510). THE SITUATION: Toronto (26-36) has lost two of their last three games after their 116-113 loss at home to Brooklyn as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver (41-21) has won three in a row after their 114-112 win against New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets will be undermanned tonight playing without a day of rest with Will Barton and Monte Morris out with injuries — and they are already without Jamal Murray who suffered a season-ending injury. Denver is left thin in the backcourt particularly at point guard. As it is, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three in a row on their home court. Denver does stay at home for their fourth straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home court. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. Toronto made only 39.6% of their shots on Tuesday against the Nets which was the worst shooting percentage in their last four games. They will be without Fred VanVleet who is getting the night off and Gary Trent, Jr. who has a foot injury, but Jalen Harris has been upgraded to probable. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Toronto has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be looking to avenge a 135-111 upset loss to the Raptors as a 1.5-point favorite on March 24th. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when looking to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread when motivated by revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (509) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (583) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (584). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-20) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 120-103 upset loss at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix (43-18) ended their two-game losing streak with a 118-110 win at New York as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers made only 40.6% of their shots on Monday in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last six games. Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, LA has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Clippers have also been consistent in bounce-back situations as they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 54 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 55 games after a point spread defeat. They allowed the Pelicans to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 23 games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games on the road after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Head coach Tyron Lue has an undermanned group tonight with Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka out indefinitely with injuries, and Patrick Beverley remains on the shelf with a hand injury. Nicolas Batum is questionable with a shoulder injury. But the good news is that Paul George has been upgraded to probable with his foot injury. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Phoenix made 54.2% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Suns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home for the first time since April 17th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 home games after playing at least their last seven games on the road. Phoenix may not be at full strength either with Jae Crowder and Dario Saric questionable with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite — and the Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Phoenix to play the Suns. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (583) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (553) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (554). THE SITUATION: Portland (32-28) has lost five games in a row after their 120-113 upset loss to Memphis as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (29-31) has won three games in a row with their 131-112 victory at Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland made only 37.1% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Blazers were upset in both their games at home against the Grizzlies over the weekend — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two games in a row. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Portland has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Pacers made 54.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 10 contests. They also allowed held the Magic to just 39.6% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last 48 games going all the way back January 14th. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. The Pavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They will be without Domantas Sabonis who is out with a back injury.

FINAL TAKE: Portland will be looking to avenge a 111-87 upset loss to Indiana on January 14th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Portland Trail Blazers (553) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (536) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (535). THE SITUATION: Detroit (18-43) has lost three games in a row after their 115-109 loss at Indiana as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Atlanta (34-27) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five after their 111-104 upset win against Milwaukee as a 6-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit only made 40.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 games. The Pistons have bounced back to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a straight-up loss. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Pistons have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game. Detroit has still played their last two games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while the Pistons have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after losing at least six or seven of their last eight games. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upsets — both without Trae Young — as they defeated Milwaukee at home by a 118-103 score getting 6.5-points on Friday. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after two straight upset wins at home. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 48 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Hawks are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing without rest. And while Atlanta has scored at least 105 points in 15 straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games after scoring at least 105 points in at least three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be without Trae Young once again tonight with the ankle injury he incurred last Wednesday against the Knicks. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Detroit Pistons (536) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (530) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (529). THE SITUATION: Golden State (30-30) has won two of their last three games after their 118-97 upset victory against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday. Sacramento (24-35) has won two of their last three games as well with their 128-125 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Stephen Curry had 32 points to carry Golden State to the upset win against the Nuggets. Curry is enjoying a monster month. In 12 games, he is scoring 38.2 PPG on 52.9% shooting from the field and a 47% clip from behind the arc. He is also averaging 6.4 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.6 Assists-Per-Game in April. Curry will be the best player on the court — by far — tonight. The Warriors stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Sacramento made 58.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. And while Sacramento has scored at least 110 points in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 110 points in four straight games. Furthermore, the Kings have the worst Defensive Rating in the NBA. They have allowed their last two opponents to make 52.9% and 56.7% of their shots — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to both make 50% of their shots. Sacramento has allowed 107 points in 13 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Kings have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing their second game in five days. Sacramento will be without their best player tonight with De’Aaron Fox who is in COVID quarantine. Fox has been a one-man wrecking crew in the fourth quarter when the Kings win — he scored 30 points against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. This team is also still without Marvin Bagley III who is still out with a hand injury. Sacramento has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento crushed the Warriors in the last meeting between these two teams by a 141-119 score on March 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (530) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (519) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (520). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (42-17) looks to bounce back from a 99-86 upset loss at Boston as a 1-point underdog on Thursday. Brooklyn (40-20) has won two of their last three games with their 109-104 win against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix made only 40.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games, and far below their 48.7% field goal percentage for the season. The Suns have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. This Suns team continues to be under-appreciated this season. The addition of Chris Paul took this team to another level. Devin Booker is an emerging superstar. Head coach Monty Williams usually pushes the right buttons — and he has a good bench from which to make moves. Phoenix is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Phoenix is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Nets held the Celtics to just 40.4% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their last six games. Brooklyn has played two straight Unders —but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after winning two of their last three games. Kevin Durant and Tyler Johnson are probable to play this afternoon (with James Harden still out with his hamstring issue) — but Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix looks to avenge a 128-124 upset loss at home to the Nets as an 8.5-point favorite on February 16th. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (519) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (511) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (35-24) has lost two games in a row with their 115-110 loss on the road to the Mavericks as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Dallas (32-26) has won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should play well tonight as they look to stave off the Mavericks from catching them in the Western Conference playoff race. They are currently 2 1/2 games ahead of Dallas for fifth place in the standings — two positions clear of having to engage in play-in games. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. LA has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game. They did get Anthony Davis back on the court on Thursday — he played 17 minutes but missed eight of his ten shots from the field. He should play better and for more minutes tonight. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Dallas had failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games after a point spread victory. The Mavericks have allowed at least 110 points in seven straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after allowing at least 110 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. Dallas appears to be undermanned in this game with the biggest news being that Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with an ankle injury. The Mavericks drop significantly when they do not Porzingis taking some of the pressure off Luka Doncic. The underrated Max Kleber and Josh Richardson are also questionable with injuries. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Mavericks. 10* NBA Lakers-Mavericks ABC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Lakers (511) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (505) plus the points versus Indiana Pacers (506). THE SITUATION: Detroit (18-42) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-91 loss at San Antonio as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Indiana (27-31) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 122-116 win against Oklahoma City as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit should play better tonight — what they lack in talent, they usually make up for with effort under head coach Duane Casey. The Pistons are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 24 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Detroit has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Pistons have lost six of their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. And while this is Detroit’s third game on the road since Wednesday, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing their third game in four days on the road. Rodney McGruder and Dennis Smith are out tonight, but the Pistons get back their best player in Jerami Grant who has been upgraded to probable with his quad injury. General manager Troy Weaver drafted well as Isaiah Stewart are Saddiq Bey both listed in NBA.com’s top-ten rookies of the season — and the team has back Killian Hayes, the number seven pick in last year’s draft back from being injured for much of the season. This trio of first rookie first-round draft picks offers this franchise an intriguing core of talent. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing with two days of rest. And while they have allowed at least 106 points in twelve straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 105 points in five straight contests. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Domantas Sabonis is getting the night off for rest — and this team is already without Myles Turner and T.J. Warren to season-ending injuries. Injuries may explain why the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit will have revenge on their minds after losing to the Pacers in Indiana by a 116-111 score as a 7.5-point favorite on March 24th. The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Year with Detroit Pistons (505) plus the points versus Indiana Pacers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (517) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (518). THE SITUATION: Utah (42-15) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 127-1115 loss to the Lakers at the Staples Center as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (35-22) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah only made 41.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 33 games. They also allowed the Lakers to make 51.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Jazz have not covered the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight contests. Utah has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell indefinitely after he injured his ankle on Saturday — so his teammates will have the challenge of stepping up without him. Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert have been upgraded to probable to play tonight. Utah has still won four of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last 17 games with their 51.6% field goal percentage. They also enjoyed their best defensive game in their last six games by holding the Jazz to 41.6% shooting. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as they continue to play without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAK TAKE: Utah has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Jazz (517) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (39-17) has won four games in a row after their 106-103 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Golden State (28-29) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 119-114 loss at Boston as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia only made 42.2% of their shots against the Clippers which was the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 home games after a point spread setback. Philly stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 220s. Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are both questionable tonight — Simmons is under the weather and Harris is dealing with a knee. George Hill has been upgraded to questionable with the thumb injury that has kept him out. But Philly still has a healthy Joel Embiid — and the Warriors lack players who can cover the big man. Golden State is thin at center with James Wiseman and Eric Paschall out the season with injuries. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Golden State has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games even after not covering against the Celtics — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Warriors may not have Stephen Curry tonight as he is questionable with an ankle. Curry might be playing the best basketball of his career — so his absence will likely be a game-changer. Kelly Oubre is also questionable with the wrist injury that has kept him out. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 trips to Philadelphia to play the 76ers. 10* NBA Golden State-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (504) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (574) plus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (573). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (27-28) has lost four games in a row after their 130-115 loss at Brooklyn as a 12-point underdog on Friday. Portland (32-23) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 107-106 upset win at San Antonio as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte is a M*A*S*H unit right now — but the Trail Blazers will once again be without Damian Lillard tonight as he is out with his hamstring injury. The Hornets allowed the Nets to make 55.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 games. But Charlotte has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Their loss to the Nets was preceded by a bad 13-point loss at home to Cleveland where they were laying three points. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. The Hornets are missing three starters in Gordon Hayward, LeMelo Ball, and Malik Monk — and P.J. Washington and Devonte Graham remain questionable with injuries that kept them out against Brooklyn. But this group still has a healthy Terry Rozier and Mykal Bridges — and head coach James Borrego usually gets the most out of his talent. They are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games at home as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 220s. Portland was without Lillard on Friday in their upset win against the Spurs. But C.J. McCollum and company may suffer an emotional letdown after exceeding expectations without their leader. The Trail Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Portland has also been playing without big man Zach Collins who is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Blazers average 91 shot attempts-per-game — and the Hornets have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games against teams who average at least 88 shots-per-game. After two double-digit losses, the Hornets should play hard tonight — even if they are dealing with a depleted roster. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (574) plus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (569) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the New York Knicks (570). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (25-31) has lost two in a row after their 117-115 upset loss at Washington as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. New York (30-27) has won five games in a row with their 117-109 upset win at Dallas as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New Orleans made only 41.2% of their shots on Friday against the Wizards which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Washington to make 46.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. New Orleans has suffered two straight upset losses as they got stunned by these Knicks at home in the Big Easy by a  116-106 score as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Pelicans have covered the point spread 11 of their last 16 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting upset as the favorite in two straight games. And while New Orleans has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. New York made 51.2% of their shots on Friday — including 14 of their 28 shots from 3-point range — in their upset win against the Mavericks. That was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. We had Dallas on Friday — and I am reticent to to immediately fade the Knicks again today. But, I won’t avoid betting against New York simply because of the disappointing results on Friday. The fact remains that (A) the Knicks’ performance on Friday was an outlier, and (B) the evidence for the play-New Orleans side of this equation is strong. And, the evidence remains solid that New York is due for an emotional letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. And while the Knicks have covered the point spread in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in at least seven straight games.

FINAL TAKE: New York will be without Alec Burks who is in COVID quarantine. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (569) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the New York Knicks (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). THE SITUATION: Dallas (30-24) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 114-113 win at Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. New York (29-27) has won four games in a row with their 116-106 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Luka Doncic saved Dallas against the Grizzlies with a stumbling buzzer-beating 3-pointer to end the game (although he was probably fouled on the play — so he may have been given free throws to win the game). Doncic will be the best player on the court tonight — and Kristaps Porzingis will likely be the second-best player. The Unicorn has been on fire as of late with a 22.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average in his last ten games along with a 10.2 Rebounds-Per-Game mark on 50% shooting from the field and a 38.6% mark from downtown. Porzingis got Monday off at home against the 76ers in a game where the Mavs got blown out — but he returned on Wednesday with 21 points against the Grizzlies. Injuries and COVID slowed down this team early — but they are pretty much healthy again and playing much better basketball on both ends of the court. The Mavs have won seven of their last ten games. This team played at a historic level on offense last season — they were due to regress in that area this year. Defense has been the concern for this team — and they rank fifth-best in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Southwest Division rival. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 home games as a favorite, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. New York is a team due for an emotional letdown after pulling the upset on the road against the defensively-challenged Pelicans. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset win as a road underdog. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games this season after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Knicks have covered point spread expectations in seven straight games after their upset win against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after going on a seven-game point spread cover run. Tom Thibodeau’s team is just 12-17 on the road this season. And while they rank 3rd in the NBA in Defensive Rating as the team takes to Thibodeau’s defensive philosophy, they are just 22nd in the league in Offensive Rating.

FINAL TAKE: Defense goes only so far against talent such as Luka Doncic — as he showed with that game-winner on Wednesday. The Mavs are particularly dangerous when Porzingis is healthy and playing well. The Mavs won easily against the Knicks on April 2nd in a 99-86 victory. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (582) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (581). THE SITUATION: Portland (31-22) has lost three of their last four games after their 107-98 loss to Miami as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Boston (28-26) has won five of their last six games with their 105-87 upset win at Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing three of their last four games. And while the Blazers have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston held the Nuggets to just a 36.4% field goal percentage which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season. But the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 15 points. Furthermore, Boston is just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They are just 11-16 on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams will be without big men — the Celtics’ Evan Fournier is in quarantine and the Blazers’ Zach Collins is out with an ankle. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (582) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (581). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (567) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568). THE SITUATION: Denver (34-19) had their eight-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 105-87 upset loss to Boston as a 3.5-point favorite. Golden State (25-28) has won two of their last three games with their 125-109 win against Houston on Saturday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS minus the points: Denver made only 34.6% of their shots yesterday in what was the worst shooting effort for them all season. I am happy with my decision to pass on the Nuggets yesterday — and this sets up a good situation tonight. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Nuggets go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State shot 53.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Golden State is also 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a double-digit victory. The Warriors stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Jamal Murray did not play last night for Denver as he deals with a knee injury — he is questionable tonight. But Golden State is dealing with injuries as well with Kelly Oubre, James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall all out tonight with injuries. The Warriors will be looking to avenge a 114-104 loss at Denver on January 14th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (567) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (554) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (553). THE SITUATION: New York (27-27) has won two in a row with their 102-96 win against Toronto as a 3-point favorite yesterday. Los Angeles (33-20) has won two of three games after their 126-101 upset victory at Brooklyn on Saturday as an 11.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers were on fire on Saturday — they nailed 50.5% of their shots in their upset win against the Nets. They are making only 46.6% of their shots in their last five games (even after that effort) as they continue to play without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I expect an emotional letdown for this Lakers’ team after shocking Brooklyn. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing their fourth game in seven days on the road. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. New York is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a point spread win including covering their last four games after a point spread cover. The Knicks have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 4 games playing without rest, New York has covered the point spread all 4 times. They beat the Raptors despite making only 39.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. This team has bought-in to first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau’s template of toughness and effort on defense. They are fourth in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season while ranking second-best in Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They are outscoring their last five opponents by +10.0 PPG. They stay at home where they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. New York has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 home games when listed in that range. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (554) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (560) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (559). THE SITUATION: Dallas (29-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 119-117 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 6-point favorite last night. Philadelphia (36-17) has won four of their last six games with their 117-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: I committed to this play this afternoon after seeing that Maxi Kleiber was upgraded to probable after missing time with a leg injury. Because Kristaps Porzingis played almost 36 minutes last night, head coach Rick Carlisle may give him the night off to rest his back for “load management” reasons. If Porzingis plays, let’s consider it a bonus — but I have to assume he will not take the court. The Mavs’ getting Kleiber back tonight helps with their front-court depth. Dallas is much better than their record. Injuries and COVID hit this team hard early in the year which contributed to their 8-13 season — but they have since put up an impressive 21-10 record. Defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group over the last two seasons — but they have won six of their last eight games while ranking third in the league in Defensive Rating over that span. In these last eight games, the Mavericks rank fourth in the NBA in Net Rating. They lost focus on defense last night by allowing the Spurs to make 54.2% of their shots which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. They have still held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting which has generated just 102.4 PPG. Dallas should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks stay at home where they have won eleven of their last fifteen games still even after last night — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 26 home games as an underdog getting up to six points, Dallas has covered the point spread 17 times. Philadelphia made 46.8% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 54 road games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game. The 76ers are playing better on the road this year with a 16-12 record — but they remain dominant at home with a 20-5 mark. Philly may have one eye on the plane ride home with this being their final game in a four-game road trip. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing their last three games on the road. Philadelphia is 10-23-2 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas may be without Porzingis — but they still have Luka Doncic and a very nice roster which always gives them a chance to win (when not decimated with injuries). The Mavericks will be looking to avenge a 111-97 loss at Philadelphia on February 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (560) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (549) minus the point(s) versus the Portland Trail Blazers (550). THE SITUATION: Miami (27-25) has won five of their last six games after their 110-104 win against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. Portland (31-21) has won six of their last nine games after their 118-103 win against Detroit as an 11-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games on the road after a win where they did not cover the spread. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Miami has survived a six-game losing streak — they got healthy again during this recent run. This team is particularly good when Jimmy Butler and Andre Iguodala are both healthy and on the court — as they are now. Entering the week (two games ago), The Heat was +11.7 points-per 100 possessions in their last 22 games with Butler and Iguodala on the court at the same time. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Portland had lost three of their last four games before their win against the Pistons. By holding Detroit to 44.6% shooting, the Trail Blazers played their best game on defense in their last three games. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 15 points. The Blazers stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. Portland has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Trail Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Portland is still with big man Zach Collins who is out with an ankle injury. Miami is without the recently acquired Victor Oladipo who is dealing with a knee injury and KZ Okpala who is in quarantine. The Heat lost at home to the Blazers on March 25th by a 125-122 score — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities this season to avenge a close loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Miami Heat (549) minus the point(s) versus the Portland Trail Blazers (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (513). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (32-19) has lost two of their last three games are their 116-101 loss at Dallas as a 2.5-point underdog last night. Charlotte (26-24) has won two of their last three contests after a 113-102 victory at Oklahoma City as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee should respond with a strong effort tonight — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games at home after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while Milwaukee’s five starters logged in 164:26 combined minutes last night, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after their five starters played at least 160 combined points the day before. The Bucks only shot 38% from the field last night which was the worst shooting effort of the season for a team that makes 48.6% of their shots. Milwaukee has not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread six or seven of their last eight games. The Bucks return home for just one game during a ten-game stretch. Milwaukee has played their last six games on the road — their last game at home was March 27th. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games at home after playing at least their last seven days on the road. Milwaukee outscores their guests by +8.4 PPG when playing at home with an 18-7 record. Charlotte held the Thunder to just 43.5% shooting on Wednesday which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by double-digits on the road. Charlotte stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. We had Charlotte on Wednesday despite them being down three starters in Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, and LeMelo Ball. The Hornets play hard for head coach James Borrego which is why I was comfortable with them taking care of business against a Thunder team severely lacking in quality players. But Charlotte is only 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is not at full strength either with Giannis Antetokounmpo questionable with the knee injury that has kept him out the last three games. The recently acquired P.J. Tucker is also questionable with a calf issue. But the Bucks’ remained stacked with talent including Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday (who recently signed an extension with the team). Milwaukee looks to avenge a 126-114 upset loss to Charlotte on January 30th as a 9-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when avenging an upset loss where they were a road favorite laying at least 7 points. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Milwaukee Bucks (514) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (573) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (574). THE SITUATION: Detroit (15-36) has lost two of their last three games after their 131-119 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Sacramento (22-29) has lost four in a row with their 116-106 upset loss at Minnesota on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Kings have been consistently inconsistent this season. Sacramento has a five-game winning streak and they won seven of eight games earlier this season — but they have also suffered losing streaks of at least three games four times this season including a nine-game losing streak in mid-February. The Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. And in their last 11 games after a loss of at least three games, the Kings have failed to cover the point spread 9 times. Head coach Luke Walton has failed to get his team to play with effort on defense. Sacramento is last in the league in Defensive Rating — despite their holding the Timberwolves to just 41.8% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. They have allowed at least 115 points in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 110 points in four straight games. The Kings return home where they are allowing their opponents to score 119.5 PPG with them these visitors making 49.6% of their shots. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. The Kings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Detroit allowed the Nuggets to make 59.1% of their shots on Tuesday in what the worst defensive effort of the season. The Pistons have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss while covering the point spread in 8 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread loss. The Pistons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. What this team lacks in talent, they make up for in playing hard for head coach Duane Casey. Balance on offense has helped them score 110.6 PPG over their last five games with them making 47.3% of their shots over that span. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are without Jerami Grant tonight as he deals with a knee injury, but the Kings will be without Marvin Bagley who is dealing with a hand injury. Detroit will be motivated to avenge a 110-107 loss at home to Sacramento on February 26th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 opportunities this season to avenge a same-season loss at home. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Detroit Pistons (573) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (555) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (556). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (25-24) has lost two of their last three games after their 116-86 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (20-30) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 132-108 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are simply savaged by injuries right now — but Charlotte still has some quality NBA players. The Hornets are missing three starters in Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, and LeMelo Ball to injuries. They still have Terry Rozier and Malik Bridges — and Bismack Biyombo, Devonte Graham, and P.J. Washington are solid role players. Head coach James Borrego is doing a fantastic job with this team to keep them in the playoff race. This is a winnable game — and Borrego will have them ready to play. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by double-digits. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Charlotte has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Hornets are a dominant 20-5-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Head coach Mark Daigneault has even less talent at his disposal with his current active roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been their Mr. Everything — but he is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Luguentz Dort is one of three players currently dealing with the concussion protocol (not sure how that epidemic happened). The franchise already went into unofficially “tank” mode by shutting down Al Horford for the rest of the season and trading away George Hill at the deadline. Aleksej Pokusevki was the leading scorer for the Thunder on Monday — this is a very depleted group of players. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Thunder have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. OKC has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will have revenge on their minds after losing at home to Oklahoma City by a 109-107 as a 3-point underdog on December 26th. The Thunder will have none of their five starters and just two of the ten players who took the court in that game. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Charlotte Hornets (555) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (544) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (543). THE SITUATION: Golden State (23-27) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight after their 117-111 loss at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (32-17) has won three in a row with their 129-128 win at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less. Milwaukee made 53.8% of their shots on Saturday — and they have made at least 53.2% of their shots in three straight games. But the Bucks have then failed to cover the point spread after shooting 50% from the field in at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Milwaukee plays their fifth game in a six-game road trip — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two in a row on the road. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing tighter third game on the road in five days. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when favored. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Milwaukee is vulnerable to teams that hit 3-pointers. They allow their opponents to make 37.6% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 24th in the NBA. They also allow their opponents to attempt 38.8% of their shots from 3-point range, the 28th highest mark in the league. Golden State makes 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc at home — and they are 7th in the NBA with 42.2% of their field goal attempts coming from 3-point range. The Warriors have Stephen Curry back in the mix — he returned to the court on Sunday where he scored 37 points against the Hawks. He had missed six of the team’s last nine games with his latest ailment being a tailbone injury. This team is much better with Curry leading the way with Draymond Green. They tend to play up or down to their competition. Golden State has covered the point spread in 47 of their last 75 home games in the second half of the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG (Milwaukee: +6.3 PPG). The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State will be looking to avenge a 138-99 loss at Milwaukee on December 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 51 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (544) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: In assessing this potential National Championship matchup for the last few months, I presumed I would take Baylor plus the points in a matchup between two teams that I considered roughly even. The events from Saturday make the Bears’ play a bit better. Gonzaga having to expend more physical and emotional energy by playing an extra five minutes against the Bruins. This game with UCLA also continued to expose some flaws with this, albeit, great Bulldogs’ team. Their half-court defense is not elite. They allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bulldogs were also a bit loose at times with the basketball — taking ill-advised chances — which might be the result of a team that has become overconfident from winning all their games. There is a reason that the last team to finish a season undefeated was during the Jimmy Carter Administration (granted, his last year in office). And the flip-side of this coin is that overconfidence can suddenly become insecurity when threatened. The pressure of making history make become a factor for Gonzaga. It is one thing for Jalen Suggs to make an improbable from 35-feet when the game is tied— it is another to make winning shots when missing the shot risks infamy for the shooter. As it is, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And while the Zags had covered the point spread in their previous four games before not coming close to covering the point spread against UCLA, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Baylor should build off their momentum from their easy victory against a good Houston team. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by at least 10 points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road when playing their second game in three days. What I like about this Bears team is that they have multiple ways to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Leading the nation in 3s, while ranking top-six in offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers is a great formula for winning a National Championship. The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games under head coach Mark Few.

FINAL TAKE: I think the laptops may actually be undervaluing this Baylor team -- their three-week COVID pause took them a few weeks to recover and get back to playing in their earlier form. This Bears team is playing much better in April than they were in February. And this group will likely have a chip on their shoulder installed as an underdog for the first time all season. Baylor has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog under Drew. 25* CBB Game of the Year on the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (504) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (503). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Clippers (32-18) have lost two straight games after their 101-94 loss to Denver as a 2-point favorite on Thursday. The Los Angeles Lakers (31-18) come off a 115-94 upset win at Sacramento as a 4.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Clippers have suffered two straight upset losses at home as their loss to the Nuggets was preceded by an upset loss to Orlando despite being an 11.5-point home favorite. The Clippers are without Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka — but they still have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Losing to Denver is excusable — but the loss to the Magic was from a loss of focus. The Clippers should be very motivated to hand the Lakers (and their roommates at the Staples Center) the loss as they look to pass them in the Western Conference standings. They only made 41.2% of their shots against the Nuggets which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after suffering two straight upset losses at home. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a point spread loss. The Clippers have responded to the 21 points spread losses this season by covering the point spread this season 13 times. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Lakers made 47.8% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. This team is taking advantage of their opportunities to beat the lesser teams in the league while LeBron James and Anthony Davis are out. They are 3-5 without their two superstars with their other two wins against Cleveland and Orlando. But four of their five losses during this stretch were against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win. And while this team has played five straight Unders, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least four straight Unders. Additionally, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will be getting Rajon Rondo into the mix after the recent acquisition from Atlanta practiced with the team yesterday. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. 10* NBA Lakers-Clippers’ ABC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Clippers (504) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga has won all four of their NCAA Tournament games by at least 16 points — and they should continue to roll against the Bruins. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all four of their games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots against USC after they made 59.6% of their shots against Creighton — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. UCLA may be due for a letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five games in a row. The Bruins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. UCLA only had 12 team assists against the Wolverines after generating only 12 team assists against Alabama in their previous game. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 12 team assists in two straight games. The Bruins too often have resorted to Johnny Juzang playing “hero ball” to bail them out. The lack of ball movement will get them burned against Gonzaga. Frankly, UCLA has been pretty fortunate to make it this far in this Big Dance. They survived overtime against Michigan State and Alabama. Michigan had many opportunities to score a final basket to either force overtime or win the game in regulation. The Wolverines made only 6 of their 11 free throws. The Crimson Tide made just 11 of their 25 free throws. In their Round of 64 game against BYU, the Cougars made only 9 of 16 free throws. None of their five opponents have shot better than 33% from 3-point land — Michigan was 3 of 11 (27.2%), Alabama was 7 of 28 (25%), Abilene Christian was 4 of 19 (21.0%), BYU was 3 of 19 (15.8%), Michigan State was 6 of 18 (33%). Now UCLA faces a confident Gonzaga team that makes 37.1% of their 3-pointers.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in all 4 games in this NCAA Tournament. UCLA is due for a letdown and have been fortunate to survive — while the Zags are a machine. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston has only played one team this season ranked in the top-20 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy — that was Texas Tech back on November 29th. But the Cougars did defeat the Red Raiders by a 64-53 score. Baylor played Texas Tech twice this season — they beat them twice by 8 and 15 point margins. The laptops project this to be a 1-point game with one of the systems I track protecting Houston as the small favorite (Pomeroy has Baylor by 1-point). I think the market is wrong — the Bears have been a public team all season, and bettors are backing Baylor against this Cougars team from the unheralded American Athletic Conference. Houston should relish in their role as the underdog for the first time since that November game against the Red Raiders. They should shoot better than 32.3% of their shots as they did against the Beavers which was the lowest shooting mark of the season for them. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after a point spread loss. Houston’s defense should keep them competitive in this game. They have held their last five opponents — all NCAA Tournament teams — to 55.4 PPG on a 36.3% field goal percentage. The Cougars lead the nation with an opponent effective field goal percentage of 43.3% while ranking in the top-11 in 2-point and 3-point defense. Baylor outlasted the Razorbacks while making 48.4% of their shots which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. The Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering at least three of the last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after winning at least 18 of their last 20 games. Baylor also allowed Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which resurrected concerns about the play of their defense that took a step or two back in February after their three-week pause because of COVID. Teams can shoot on the Bears — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.9% which is just 120th in the nation. 

FINAL TAKE: It strikes me how similar both these teams are. They both are top-seven in the nation in offensive rebounding. Houston is second nationally by pulling down 39.8% of their missed — and Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.6% of their misses. Both force turnovers in at least 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions. While the Bears lead the nation in 3-point shooting, the Cougars are 11th in opponent’s 3-point shooting defense. This is going to be a tough matchup for a Baylor team that is supposed to be awaiting coronation for a championship game date with Gonzaga on Monday. Houston has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (516) minus or plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (515). THE SITUATION: Boston (23-24) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Monday in their 115-109 upset loss to New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (24-21) ended their two-game losing streak with a 127-106 win at Oklahoma City as an 11.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Boston only made 43.0% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed New Orleans to make 50% of their shots which is tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven contests. The Celtics have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Jaylen Brown did not play on Monday as he deals with a hip injury. He was listed as questionable for tonight’s game — but this news late this afternoon is that he will be able to take the court tonight. That update was what I needed to change this situation from Yellow Light to Green Light. Boston has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas made 53.1% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Mavericks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. Dallas will likely still be without starting center Willie Cauley-Stein who has missed the last six games due to COVID quarantine. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 110-107 upset loss to Dallas as a 2.5-point underdog on February 23rd — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 20* NBA Dallas-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (516) minus or plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). THE SITUATION: Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan held the Seminoles to just 40% shooting — and that was the highest opponent field goal percentage against them so far in this Big Dance. The Wolverines are an outstanding defensive team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held Florida State to under 60 points for the first time all season. Michigan also had their offense clicking by making 49.2% of their shots against a tough Seminoles’ defense whose length was supposed to overwhelm the Wolverines. Juwan Howard has this team operating an NBA-style offense with pick-and-rolls designed to create mismatches and open players. Everyone in the rotation is a competent scorer. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines are averaging 81.7 PPG in this tournament with the 76 points against Florida State being their lowest scoring output. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players on this team. Brandon Johns took his spot in the starting lineup — he scored 14 points with six rebounds on Sunday. Johns gives the team more of a post-up presence alongside freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson as opposed to Livers who thrived on the perimeter as a slasher and 3-point shooter. He is averaging 10.7 PPG in this tournament. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — and he has scored 33 points in the last two games. Michigan has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. UCLA scored 23 points in the overtime session to smother the Crimson Tide in overtime on Sunday — but that additional energy may come back to haunt them on short rest for this game. Head coach Mick Cronin has survived this season despite losing his best player, Chris Smith, to a season-ending injury in late December. And forward Jalen Hill did not make the trip to the bubble with this team which further depleted the depth of this team. The Bruins have played one extra game in this tournament with their play-in game First Four victory against Michigan State in another overtime game. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UCLA has allowed only 29 and 21 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Bruins are playing better on defense after a bad first half against the Spartans — but this is still an area of weakness. While UCLA ranks 54 in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 92nd in that metric when playing on the road. They allow their opponents to make 49.1% of their shots inside the arc away from Pauley Pavilion, ranking 155th in the nation. Overall, the Bruins rank 13th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they fall to 31st in that metric on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan is one of three teams — joining Gonzaga and Baylor — who rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA is outside the top ten in both categories. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court as an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Michigan has covered the point spread in 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court — and they are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. 25* CBB TBS-TV Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (657) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). THE SITUATION: USC (25-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 82-68 win against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Gonzaga (29-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC should enter this game with confidence — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a double-digit victory. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. While they held the Ducks to just 37.7% shooting, that was the highest field goal percentage that USC has allowed in this tournament. Andy Enfield’s team has held their last five opponents to just 36.1% shooting. With the 7’0 freshman Evan Mobley patrolling the middle, the Trojans’ defense can help them be a Giant Killer tonight. USC leads the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.5% shooting inside the arc. The Trojans are red-hot with their shooting as well — they have shot at least 50% from the field in four straight games. They have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games. USC has two other characteristics of successful Giant Killers. First, they can make 3-pointers. The Trojans hit 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 60th nationally. Second, they get second-chance scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. USC is 12th in the nation by rebounding 35.4% of their missed shots. Gonzaga made 59.6% of their shots on Sunday in their win against the Bluejays which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Bulldogs are rolling — but the personality of the team suggests they are due for a letdown while perhaps being a bit overvalued by the betting public. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all three of the tournament games, winning all three by at least 16 points. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their four games this season after going at least 3-1 ATS in a fora-game stretch. And while Gonzaga has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Zags have scored at least 83 points in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: USC took some time to gel — but with four transfer players along with the freshman Mobley, they are peaking at the right time. USC has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the USC Trojans (657) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). THE SITUATION: Baylor (25-2) has won seven of their last eight games with their 62-51 win against Villanova as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (25-6) has won three in a row with their 72-70 victory against Oral Roberts as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor endured an outlier performance with their 3-point shooting on Saturday. Despite being (now) second in the nation with a 40.8% shooting percentage from the 3-point range this season, the Bears only made 3 of 19 (15.8%) shots from behind the arc against the Wildcats. Davion Mitchell missed all three of his shots from 3-point range despite entering the game as a 46% shooter from 3-point land. Jared Butler missed eight of his nine shots from behind the arc despite being a 39.9% shooter from distance. Don’t be surprised if Baylor ignites from behind the arc tonight. What is so impressive about this team is that they pulled away to win (and cover the point spread) anyways. Scott Drew had his team bypass 3-point shooting for scoring in the paint in the second half against the Villanova zone defenses — and they shot 53% in the final 20 minutes of the game. Even if the Bears’ 3s are not falling, they thrive in getting second-chance opportunities — they rank sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. They also generate more scoring chances by forcing turnovers — they rank third in the nation in forcing turnovers in 24.8% of their opponent’s possessions. And Baylor plays stifling half-court defense that was on full display against the Wildcats as they held them to just 37.5% shooting in the second half with them missing all nine of their 3-point attempts. Throw away any remaining concerns about the Bears’ defense that struggled after a three-week COVID pause in February: Baylor has held their three opponents in this tournament to just 56.3 PPG on 41.3% shooting. This is a great sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Bears have not allowed more than 63 points in this Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. Baylor has won all three of their NCAA Tournament games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Arkansas once again skirted danger by falling behind by double-digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying for the win. The Razorbacks cannot afford to do that for the fourth straight time against this Baylor team — the Bears will start hitting more 3s and the lead will be 20. Arkansas was able to pull away from Colgate, but they survived two-point victories against Texas Tech and then Oral Roberts on Saturday. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row by three points or less. And in their last 10 games after winning three in a row, Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, but they fall to 39th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. Let’s put a microscope on that. Arkansas has the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, but they fall to 43rd in that metric on the road. Looking even closer, while the Razorbacks held their opponents to just 27.9% shooting from behind the arc at home, ranking 31st in the nation, their opponents make 39.1% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 317th nationally. Baylor is the wrong opponent for them playing outside Fayetteville. And while Arkansas wants to force turnovers with their full-court press, the Bears’ four-guard lineup only turns the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions away from Waco, ranking 42nd nationally. The Razorbacks only make 32.6% of their 3-pointers away from home, ranking 187th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Elite 8 Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (567) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (568). THE SITUATION: Memphis (21-22) has lost two in a row with their 126-110 loss at Utah as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (13-32) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 129-107 upset win at Minnesota as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis only made 40.2% of their shots, which is the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They should bounce-back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Grizzlies stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Houston made 54.3% of their shots on Saturday in their win against the Timberwolves which was the best shooting effort in their last 30 games. But the Rockets have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a favorite. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (567) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (656) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (655). THE SITUATION: Houston (27-3) won their tenth straight game with their 62-46 victory against Syracuse as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (20-12) has won nine of their last ten games after their 65-58 upset win against Loyola-Chicago as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston easily defeated the Orange despite making only 38.3% of their shots from the field and just 7 of their 26 shots from behind the arc.

At 9:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). THE SITUATION: USC (24-7) has won five of their last six games after their 85-51 win against Kansas as a 1-point favorite last Monday night. Oregon (21-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 95-80 upset win against Iowa as a 5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this USC team — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks them 6th in the nation. It starts on defense where the Trojans lead the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting inside the arc. Head coach Andy Enfield has length that makes it difficult on opposing shooters. Evan Mobley is a rising star — the 7’0 freshman center patrols the paint and helps USC block 13.6% of their opponent’s shots, 18th best in the nation. The Trojans should build off the momentum of their 34-point win against the Jayhawks as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. USC made 57.1% of their shots against what had been an improving Kansas defense. That was the third straight game that the Trojans made at least 50% of their shots — and it was the fourth time over a six-game stretch where they shot at least 50% from the field while never shooting less than 47.2% during that span. The personality of this team suggests they will continue to build off this success. USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after shooting at least 47% from the field in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games. And while the Trojans nailed 11 of their 18 shots from 3-point land against the Jayhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after shooting at least 50% from 3-point range in their last game. Oregon probably pulled off the best win of their season by upsetting the Hawkeyes last week. We had the Ducks in that game after benefitting from getting a bye from not playing a VCU team that has to cancel because of COVID protocols. Those turn of events not only kept the Oregon players rested but it allowed for the coaching staff to get a jump on preparing for Iowa rather than decompressing from a Saturday night game. Oregon versus VCU was my favorite situation from the Round of 64 — so I feel robbed that we didn’t get the chance to profit from it. And that sentiment should demonstrate that I like this Ducks team — just not in this spot. Oregon has won twelve of their last fourteen games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Oregon is not a great defensive team. They rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they plummet to 103rd nationally in defense when playing on the road. Head coach Dana Altman deploys several zone defenses that can be tricky to adjust to for those opponents unfamiliar with them — but that will not be the case against this USC team. Half-court defense is a particulate concern — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.1% which is 238th in the nation. Oregon is also reliant on 3-point shooting — they are 14th in the nation by converting 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Ducks may become reliant on their 3s against the stout Trojans’ interior defense. But while Oregon averages 22 shots from distance per game, USC has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams who average at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Ducks outscore their opponents by +7.3 PPG as well — but the Trojans have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored on a neutral court. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (645) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (646). THE SITUATION: UCLA (20-9) won their third straight game in the Big Dance with their 67-47 victory against Abilene Christian as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Alabama (26-6) has won eight in a row after their 96-77 win against Maryland as a 6-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is contrarian play — going against an Alabama team off an outlier performance against a UCLA team that appears to be a bit undervalued. The odds have been pushed up to the Crimson Tide laying 7 points in many spots despite the laptops projecting around a four-point spread. That’s just a guide for me — but getting close to a field goal of value for a single-digit underdog in the Big Dance is always intriguing. Alabama made 53% of their shots against the Terrapins which was the best shooting performance in their last ten games. They also made 16 of 33 shots from behind the arc — despite shooting only 31.1% of their 3-pointers in their previous nine games combined. It is more likely that the Tide shoot closer to the number they have been in their previous nine games. The Crimson Tide have outrebounded their last three opponents by at least 7 boards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 6.0 RPG. Alabama will not own the boards against UCLA as they have in their last three games — the Bruins led the Pac-12 by holding their opponents to rebounding only 24.5% of their missed shots. UCLA has improved their play on defense after a rough opening half against Michigan State in the play-in (ruining our Under). The Bruins held Abilene Christian to just 29.8% shooting while keeping them at just 47 points. UCLA has covered all three of their NCAA Tournament games which is a good sign for them tonight since they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. The Bruins are also 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread win. Head coach Mick Cronin will need to slow this game down to get Alabama out of their rhythm — and that is his preferred style given his years of overseeing a grinding style as the coach of Cincinnati. This team has more offensive threats than his Bearcats’ teams — UCLA is making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this Big Dance.

FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. If the Tide shoots 50% from 3-point land again, it will be a rout — but that is true for any team left in the tournament. The problem with launching so many 3s as Nate Oats’ team is that when the pressure mounts, the 3s start clanking more and more off the rim. I am reminded of the Houston Rockets missing 27 straight 3-pointers in a Game Seven against Golden State in the NBA — and they had James Harden. 10* CBB UCLA-Alabama TBS-TV Special with the UCLA Bruins (645) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). THE SITUATION: Michigan (22-4) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their gritty 86-78 victory against LSU as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Florida State (18-6) has won three of their last four games after their 71-53 upset win against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was resilient to take the Tigers’ best punch but still rally from a 9-point deficit to defeat an LSU team that is loaded with talent and playing at a high level. Juwan Howard displayed his coaching acumen making many in-game adjustments that changed the momentum. And the Wolverines had several role players step up to make big shots. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players. Eli Brooks led the team with 21 points with the senior making several clutch baskets. Transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — he responded with 21 points himself. Michigan has played worse this season in the times when Brooks has been hurt rather than Livers — his role on the team is more vital this season given the emergence of freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson at center. Brandon Johns took Livers' spot in the starting lineup — he had a solid 7 points with 5 rebounds in 27 minutes. Johns is a former five-star recruit under John Beilein who can create his own shot as more of a post-up player than Livers. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The offense was clicking even without Livers with the Wolverines making 53.8% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wolverines scored 82 points in their opening-round game against Texas Southern — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Only Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan rank inside the top-ten in Adjusted Efficiency in both offense and defense. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored. I take a backseat to no one in my respect for Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton. We had them in their upset in against Colorado — but that was likely an outlier performance. The Seminoles made 52.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Michigan may be catching Florida State at the right time. This is the best 3-point shooting team in Hamilton’s tenure at Florida State — but they have hit only 6 of their 26 shots (23.0%) 3-pointers in the Big Dance which may be a harbinger of things to come under tournament pressure facing elite defenses. As it is, the Seminoles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Florida State has flexed their muscles on defense by holding their first two opponents to 53.5 PPG in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after not allowing their last two opponents to score more than 55 points. Florida State has balanced scoring and a deep bench — but I am not sure they have a reliable go-to scorer in the half-court when they need a basket. The Seminoles rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they fall to 31st in that metric when playing on the road. And while their length on defense will disrupt Michigan, they lack a post-defender who can handle Dickinson down low. The 7-footer will likely be a difference-maker in this game — especially on the boards. The Seminoles allow their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Florida State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan is 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games played on a neutral court — and they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Florida State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (648) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (647). THE SITUATION: Houston (26-3) has won nine straight games after their 63-60 win against Rutgers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Syracuse (18-9) has won five of their last six games after their 75-72 win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston point guard Dejon Jarreau is dealing with a hip injury — but he practiced on Thursday, and he has been upgraded to probable to play in this game. I am expecting Jarreau to be around 75% effective. The Cougars should play well tonight after dodging a bullet against the Scarlet Knights. Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a point spread loss. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in all six of these situations this season. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Orange have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least six straight games. Additionally, while Syracuse has been outshot by 20 and 18 shots in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after getting outshot by at least 20 attempts in two straight games. The Orange get dominated on the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 34.2% of their missed shots, ranking 340th in the nation. North Carolina rebounded 53.3% and 56.5% of their missed shots in their two games against the Orange. Granted, the Tar Heels are the number one team in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Cougars are the second-best team in the country by rebounding 39.9% of their misses. Syracuse’s plan is to make 3-pointers — they have averaged 11.5 made 3-pointers per game in their last six contests. They have made 15 and 14 shots from behind the arc in their previous two games. Can they keep that up tonight? Against a Houston team that is 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.3% from behind the arc? As it is, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in the last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: If Syracuse makes another 14 or so 3-pointers, they will likely cover the point spread tonight. But teams who live by the 3, usually and eventually die by the 3. Houston has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as a favorite. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Houston Cougars (648) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (624) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (623). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (24-6) reached the Sweet 16 with their 68-66 win against Texas Tech as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Oral Roberts (18-10) has won seven in a row with their 81-78 upset win against Florida as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oral Roberts has been on a magical run pulling off two upsets as a 15-seed. I expect the bubble to burst for the Golden Eagles tonight. Oral Roberts has won fifteen of their last twenty games — but this is a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty. The Golden Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after pulling off two straight upset victories. They survived two close games settled by three points against Ohio State and Florida — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by six points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. This team has some glaring weaknesses. It starts with their defense as they rank 239th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Florida made 55.2% of their shots against them — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 55% from the field. They also are weak in defending their defensive glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, ranking 332nd in the nation. The Buckeyes and Gators pulled down 39.3% and 35.1% of their missed shots against them. Oral Roberts was out-rebounded by 17 and 13 boards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting out-rebounded by at least ten boards in two straight games. Arkansas has advanced despite not playing very well in their previous two games — they had to rally from a double-digit deficit on both occasions. The Razorbacks only shot 27% from behind the arc in those two games — and they averaged just 1.09 and 1.00 Points-Per-Possession. They did not even register a steal against the Red Raiders which was a first in program history. Arkansas averages 1.12 PPP in Adjusted Efficiency while ranking 63rd in the nation by stealing the ball in 10.6% of their opponent’s possessions — so they should see better days on both fronts. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the total set in the 150s. Arkansas has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a meeting between these two teams on December 20th which Arkansas won by an 87-76 score. The Razorbacks fell behind by 10 points but rallied to win despite only making 4 of their 24 shots from 3-point range. Arkansas dominated the offensive glass by pulling down 49% of their missed shots — and they outscored the Golden Eagles by a 57-36 margin in the second half. Eric Musselman is well-equipped to make adjustments from that game — he already inserted Jaylin Williams in the starting lineup for the 7’3 Connor Vanover who is more versatile in defending the perimeter. And their 6’7 center Justin Smith is one of the most versatile defenders in the nation. 10* CBB Oral Roberts-Arkansas TBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (624) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (622) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Villanova (18-6) reached the Sweet 16 with an 84-61 victory against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor got their defense working as they forced 14 Badgers’ turnovers representing 21.9% of their possessions. The Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory. Baylor is a reliable favorite because they multiple ways to generate more scoring possessions even if their 3-pointers are not falling — and they lead the nation by making 41.5% of their 3-pointers. The Bears are third nationally by forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.7% of their missed shots. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Villanova comes off one of the best games of their season on Sunday. They made 15 of their 30 shots from behind the arc en route to a 55.4% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (626) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (625). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (26-4) has won eight in a row with their 71-58 win against Illinois as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Oregon State (19-12) has won eight of their last nine games with their 80-70 upset win against Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Field House in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS MINUS THE POINTS: Will Loyola-Chicago suffer a letdown after defeating their in-state rival that dodges them in non-conference play? Maybe — but maybe not. It is the Ramblers that has the most recent Final Four run back in 2018 of the two-state programs. Cameron Krutwig was a significant piece on that team — and is now a senior leader of this group. Looking to the team trends, Loyola has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a win by 10 or more points. This is a team that thrives off momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win, and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while the Ramblers have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least four straight games. This is a balanced team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Loyola leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). THE SITUATION: Memphis (18-8) has won three of their last four games after defeating Boise State by a 59-56 score as a 4-point favorite in the NIT Quarterfinals on Thursday. Colorado State (20-6) has also won three of their last four games after their 65-61 upset win against North Carolina State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday in their NIT Quarterfinals contest. This game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis advanced despite making only 42.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Penny Hardaway’s team should build off their momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Memphis had covered the point spread in seven straight games before not covering against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row. Hardaway has been criticized for his coaching — but the former NBA star has overseen the development of his team rising to be number one in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Memphis has played two straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Hardaway’s team has played better away from home — while they rank 50th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 31st in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in games with the total set in the 130s. Colorado State may be due for a letdown after rallying in the second half to defeat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Despite the win, they are scoring only 68.8 PPG over their last five games with a 40.6% field goal percentage over that span which is a dropoff of -5.5 PPG from their season average where they are making 46.9% of their shots. Colorado State has been more effective at home at Fort Collins where they rank 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. When away from home, the Rams fall to 87th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The biggest problem is with the play of their offense — consistent with the decline in their recent five games. While Colorado State ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 134th in that metric on the road. Protecting the basketball has been an issue — they turn the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions, ranking 205th nationally. Memphis forces turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 28th nationally.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on a neutral court as a dog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB NIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-19) has lost three in a row after their 134-101 loss to the Clippers as a 6.5-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (29-16) has won three in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: We had San Antonio last night as a 10* play. The Clippers raced out to a 41-29 lead at the end of the first quarter — but the Spurs rallied to pull within six points midway through the second quarter where the game yo-yoed back-and-forth until LA pulled away midway through the third quarter. Head coach Gregg Popovich called off the proverbial dogs in the fourth quarter with his starter not playing the final eight minutes. While it is dangerous to chase losses, it is also foolish to automatically dismiss profitable opportunities only because of a previous lost bet. Tonight’s situation is stronger as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. This is a team that has been on a five-game road trip — and now they have lost the first two games of a nine-game homestand. The Spurs have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. This is their second game of a nine-game homestand — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after losing at least two in a row. This is an underrated team that has intriguing young talent along with DeMar DeRozan who is playing at a very high level. As always under Gregg Popovich, this is a well-coached team that plays smart. San Antonio leads the NBA with the lowest turnover rate in the league — and they have the fifth-lowest foul rate. The Spurs are also playing better defense as of late. They had held their previous five opponents to 105.6 PPG on 45.2% shooting which is -4.5 PPG below their season average — before last night’s mulligan. They also were making a healthy 47.9% of their shots during that five-game span before shooting just 45.9% last night which was the worst shooting margin in their last four games. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog. Los Angeles shot 55.7% from the field last night which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. Yet the Clippers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning and covering the point spread in at least two straight games as a favorite. The Clippers have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE:  The Clippers will still be without Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley who are dealing with injuries. San Antonio hopes to get Lonnie Walker IV and Rudy Gay back tonight after they missed last night’s game with injures. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points.
25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 75-61 win against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Colorado State (19-6) has won two of their last three games with their 75-73 win against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite last Friday. This quarterfinals match in the National Invitational Tournament is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State nailed 58.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort of the season. That typically is a red flag for me as an outlier effort that is due for regression. But that was the fifth time in their last seven games that NC State has made at least 50% of their shots. This is a team peaking in March — despite losing their top-scorer, Devon Daniels, to a season-ending ACL tear at the end o January. Kevin Keatts kept coaching — and he has redesigned the offense to rely more on his frontcourt. Junior forward Jericole Hellems has averaged 13.8 PPG in his last 13 games. 6’10 senior D.J. Funderburk led the team with 21 points against Davidson. Four of the Wolfpack’s best graded net efficiency performances have taken place since February 6th. The team trends suggest the strong effort last week is a sign of good things to come for this team — they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. And while the Wolfpack’s with the Wildcats finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing an Under. NC State also tends to play better on the road. While they rank 93rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 27th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road fueled by a ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Another metrics projection system I consider ranks the Wolfpack as the 11th best team in the nation on the road. Colorado State has played their basketball at home in Fort Collins where they have an edge given their familiarity with the higher altitude. The Rams rank 64th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home — but they fall to 90th nationally in that metric on the road. The biggest dropoff away from home is the performance of their offense. While Colorado State is 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 124th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. This is not a great matchup for the Rams either given their propensity to commit turnovers. Colorado State turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, the 222nd worst mark in the nation. They were even worse in the Mountain West Conference with a turnover rate of 21.9%, ninth-worst. The Wolfpack forced turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 40th nationally. Colorado State has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but not only have the Rams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in three straight games. Despite protecting the basketball better as of late (albeit against opponents not as adept at forcing turnovers as NC State), the top-five performances this season for Colorado State, in terms of efficiency, all took place before February.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite or picks ‘em — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (576) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (575). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-18) saw their three-game losing streak snapped on Monday in a 100-97 upset loss to Charlotte as a 5-point favorite. Los Angeles (28-16) has won two in a row as well as four of six after their 119-110 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio should respond with a strong effort as an underdog after being flat in their first game at home after a five-game road trip. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. This is their second game of a nine-game homestand — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after losing two in a row. This is an underrated team that has intriguing young talent along with DeMar DeRozan who is playing at a very high level. As always under Gregg Popovich, this is a well-coached team that plays smart. San Antonio leads the NBA with the lowest turnover rate in the league — and they have the fifth-lowest foul rate. The Spurs are also playing better defense as of late. The 105.6 PPG they have allowed over their last five games on 45.2% shooting which is -4.5 PPG below their season average. They are also making a healthy 47.9% of their shots during this five-game span. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Clippers have covered the point spread in their last games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games as a favorite. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering four or five of their last six. Even despite their good recent stretch, they have allowed their last five opponents to 49.8% shooting from the field.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Antonio Spurs (576) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (14-12) advanced to the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational with their 82-71 win against Bellarmine as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (18-7) won their semifinals game against Stetson with a 77-72 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. The CBI is being played at a neutral court at Oceans Center in Dayton Beach.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Pepperdine had high expectations to begin the season with four starters back from the group that finished 16-16. Lorenzo Romar has talent on his team — led by senior Colbey Ross who is averaging 17.6 PPG and junior Kessler Edwards who added 17.5 PPG. The Wave suffered close losses to good teams last season — including 2-point losses to Gonzaga and Arizona. It was more of the same for Romar’s team this season with an early triple-overtime loss to UCLA (when the Bruins still had a healthy Chris Smith) and a 5-point loss to San Diego State. The Wave then endured a front-loaded schedule in the West Coast Conference given COVID cancellations — they still played Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s twice and BYU three times (including the conference tournament) but did not benefit from getting to load up on the bottom half of the conference. Pepperdine did defeat Saint Mary’s and BYU in the regular season — but they lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Cougars in the West Coast Conference tournament, despite a spectacular effort from Ross. The Wave should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Pepperdine has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Wave are playing their best basketball of the season now in March with four wins in their last five games. They have scored at least 77 points in each of their last five games while averaging 81.4 PPG with a 48.5% shooting clip over that span. Pepperdine has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Wave have also been more effective on the road. While Pepperdine ranks 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 66th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150. Pepperdine is also 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Coastal Carolina has the burden of playing without rest after a game that required overtime — and, as it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Chanticleers have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Overs. This is a big step-up in competition for this team whose best opponent this season was a Wofford team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks at 126th in the nation — and they lost by 11 points. Pomeroy ranks Pepperdine as the 105th team nationally. Twenty-two of the 25 teams Coastal Carolina played this season are ranked 211th or lower by Pomeroy.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Wave have covered the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court as a favorite. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-30) had their two-game losing streak with a 100-86 loss to Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (19-23) has lost nine of their last thirteen games after their 140-113 loss at Milwaukee as a 7-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit made only 4 of their 25 shots from behind the arc against the Bulls with their 39.0% shooting percentage being the lowest mark in their last six games. And the 46.2% field goal percentage that Chicago managed was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Pistons should play better tonight for head coach Dwane Casey who is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Pistons have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss at home. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Casey is doing a great coaching job with this team with the organization looking ahead to the NBA draft. His players consistently play with effort — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Rodney McGruder is out tonight and Wayne Ellington is questionable — but Casey still has several rag-tag players that are proving quality minutes. Jerami Grant is enjoying a breakout season with his chance to demonstrate his offensive skills on top of his elite defensive talent. Deion Wright has been a surprise. Dennis Smith is showing flashes of the promise that made him a top-ten draft pick by the Knicks. Mason Plumlee has been solid. Indiana is not at full health with two starters, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner, questionable with back and ankle injuries, respectively. The Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And while Indiana has scored at least 105 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight contests. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries continue to hold this Pacers’ team back. Missing T.J. Warren all season has been a big blow to their offense whose limitations were why they did not retain Nate McMillan as their head coach. They recently got Caris LeVert into the mix — but potentially not having Brogdon and/or Turner really hurts after both were out against the Bucks. Brogdon has been the team’s leading scorer in his previous eight games with a 22.5 PPG scoring average while nailing 54.3% of his shots and 48.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Turner has been a pleasant surprise this year after being on the trading block to begin the season. Even if both players get cleared to play tonight, Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (822) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (821). THE SITUATION: Kansas (21-8) has won four straight games after their 93-84 win against Eastern Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. USC (23-7) has won four of their last five games after their 72-56 victory against Drake as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Kansas is getting back to complete health after their COVID shutdown during the Big 12 tournament. Their freshman, Jalen Wilson, a rising star, was cleared to leave quarantine after missing Saturday’s game — he will be available for this game. Center David McCormack seemed in fine form after the long pause as he scored 20 of his 22 points in the second half. McCormack will have the responsibility of slowing down the Trojans’ Evan Mobley. The Jayhawks may have been a step slow on defense after their return from quarantine as they allowed Eastern Washington to make 50% of their shots which was tied for the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last ten games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — including all four of those circumstances this season. The Jayhawks trailed the Eagles by a 46-38 score at halftime — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Kansas has won nine of their last ten games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after winning their last ten. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in three days. And in their last 30 games with the Total set in the 130s, Kansas has covered the point spread in 20 of those games. USC was outstanding against Drake — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. And while the Trojans had not covered the point spread in three straight games before covering against the Bulldogs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread only once in their last three games. USC nailed 8 of their 15 shots from behind the arc to help their 50% field goal percentage for the game. The Trojans have made at least 48.3% of their shots in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making at least 48% of their shots in three straight games. USC is 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they drop to 49th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when on the road. They held Drake to just 29.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: In Bill Self, I Trust — at least in this virtual pick ‘em. He is the best in the business in drawing up plays — and he is elite in making second-half adjustments. USC only makes 65.4% of their free throws, ranking 328th in the nation — and I hate that part of their game in a contest expected to be so close. Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with Kansas Jayhawks (822) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). THE SITUATION: Florida State (17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 64-54 win against UNC-Greensboro as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado (23-8) has won seven of their last eight games after their 96-73 win against Georgetown as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Fascinating situation here with metrics guru Ken Pomeroy projecting Colorado as a 2-point winner with another analytics guru I peruse projecting the Bufaloes as a 4-point winner. Yet the numbers I lean most heavily on — that values home/road splits the most — has Florida State a 1-point favorite which correlates with what the oddsmakers are thinking. I am with the oddsmakers in this one. While Colorado is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, ranking 7th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they drop to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency while ranking 21st on offense and 38th on defense. And the Buffaloes come off a wild outlier performance on Saturday where they torched the nets against a helpless Hoyas team by nailing 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. Colorado made a season-high 60.7% of their shots in that game — but I fully expect that the Regression Gods will be making an appearance tonight. The Seminoles are 26th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. Their ability to use all five players on the court to switch off makes it very difficult on opponents. They are the tallest team in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. Colorado is led by star guard McKinley Wright — but he’s just 6’0 who will likely struggle against the length that Florida State deploys. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Then there is head coach Tad Boyle. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 postseason games under Boyle including four of their last five games in the Big Dance. Florida State did not make a 3-pointer on Saturday against the Spartans — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone when they make their appearance tonight. The Seminoles are sixth in the nation by making 39.0% of their 3-pointers, so they will start falling. Florida State only pulled down five offensive rebounds in that game as well — no wonder I passed on that situation. The Seminoles are 16th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 65 points. And in their last 6 games where it was just their second game in eight days, the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: I think Leonard Hamilton is the most underrated head coach in any sport in the country. His teams tend to be overvalued as big favorites — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or dog up to three points. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (826) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (825). THE SITUATION: Michigan (21-4) has won two of their last three games after their 82-66 win against Texas Southern on Saturday as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (19-9) has won five of their last six games with their 76-61 victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan will miss the senior leadership of Isaiah Livers who is likely not available for the NCAA tournament with the stress fracture in his foot — but his loss is being overstated by the pundits and betting public with the Wolverines falling to just a 4-point favorite in many spots. The Wolverines were significantly worse last year when they had to play without Livers — but there is a substantial difference between that team and the one that will take the court tonight. This group is more mature and more seasoned with another year under Juwan Howard’s guidance. Howard is a fantastic coach. And this Michigan team has freshman phenom, Hunter Dickinson. It will be junior Brandon Johns who will take Livers spot in the starting lineup — and the junior has improved significantly since last season. Johns is a former five-star recruit, so it’s not like he is a scrub. The loss of Livers’ shooting means players like Mike Smith need to step up. Smith was a prolific scorer in the Ivy League before transferring to Ann Arbor where he embraced the role of distributor. He did lead the team in scoring with 18 points on Saturday. Michigan has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. LSU seems to be peaking in their support by the betting public right now with five wins in their last six games. They held the Bonnies to just a 33.3% shooting percentage which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage in their last 26 games. While I appreciate that this is a talented roster, I am not convinced they figured things out to finally discover consistency. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 60 of their last 99 games on the road after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 15 points. They are thin inside as they allow their opponents to make 50.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they allow their opponents to pull down 32.4% of their missed shots, 320th in the nation. Dickinson is going to have a field day in the middle — and, frankly, so is Johns, who is more of a post player than Livers. And there is a big discrepancy between Howard and Will Wade who does not coach defense. LSU ranks 191st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: LSU is just 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Michigan is 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court as a favorite — and they are 11-4-2 ATS in the Big Dance as a favorite. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (826) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (825). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). THE SITUATION: Oregon (20-6) advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday after VCU pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID case. The Ducks saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in a 75-64 upset loss to Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Iowa (22-8) defeated Grand Canyon by an 86-74 score as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not worried about how the cancellation of Friday’s game impacted the Ducks — I see it as just another day of rest that should help with their legs in the second half. Oregon only made 41.7% of their shots against the Beavers in the Pac-12 Championship Game — far below their 47.2% shooting percentage for the season. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits in a game where they were laying at least 7 points. Oregon was hit pretty hard by COVID which interrupted their season twice. And those circumstances were in addition to them dealing with some injuries with Eric Williams banged up for much of the season and Will Richardson out until early February with a thumb injury. The Ducks have won eleven of their last thirteen games since February 6th while exceeding point spread expectations in five straight games before getting upset in the Pac-12 tournament. Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Ducks tend to play better on the road this season. While they rank 56th in Adjusted Net Efficiency in Eugene, they improve to 40th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. They have a dynamic set of players that ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court. Iowa made 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best scoring effort in their last 16 games. But the Hawkeyes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Iowa is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — but they are held back on defense given the limitations of Luke Garza in the interior. The Hawkeyes ranked 60th in the nation and seventh in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This suspect play on defense explains why they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Furthermore, Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While I don’t put too much stock into conference performance after three days in the Big Dance, I certainly have observed how well the Pac-12 is doing — and how disappointing the Big Ten has been. Oregon has the better head coach this afternoon — and not only are the Ducks 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games, but they have covered 6 straight games in the Big Dance under Dana Altman as the underdog. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games when favored under Fran McCaffrey. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (812) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (811). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (21-8) has won four of their last five games after their 69-60 win against Liberty as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Oregon State (18-12) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-56 upset win against Tennessee as a 9-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have coved the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in nine of their last ten games, that bodes well for them moving forward as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least six of their last seven games. And they defeated the Flames despite only making 40.4% of their shots which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 11 games. Liberty made only 37.5% of their shots in that game — and Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Oregon State has pulled off four straight upsets with their 70-56 win against Tennessee as a 9-point underdog. The Beavers held the Volunteers — missing their best post player in John Fulkerson who did not play because of his concussion from the SEC tournament — to just 33.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. Trying to defend Cade Cunningham will be a stiffer test than the Volunteers who too often disappeared on offense. Oregon State upset Colorado to win the Pac-12 tournament — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning at least four games in a row. Oregon State’s zone defense under head coach Wayne Tinkle holds opponents to just 30.9% shooting from behind the arc — but the Cowboys are not reliant on shooting 3s. Only 31.7% of their field goal attempts are from behind the arc which is the 299th lowest mark in the nation — and just 24.5% of their points come from made 3-pointers, the 315th lowest mark in the nation. But Oregon State is vulnerable in the interior with opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 263rd in the nation. Oklahoma State was second in the Big 12 by making 52.6% of their 2-point shots. They should get to the line tonight — they ranked 2nd in the Big 12 in free throw rate, and the Mean Green ranked 298th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. North Texas also allows their opponents to pull down 29.4% of their missed shots, 235th in the nation — and the Cowboys pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. Head coach Mike Boynton has many ways for his team to score points against the Beavers’ zone defense.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (812) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). THE SITUATION: Villanova (17-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 73-63 win against Winthrop as a 6-point favorite on Friday. North Texas (18-9) has won five games in a row with their 78-69 upset win in overtime against Purdue on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas has now pulled off two straight upsets that needed overtime as they pulled off the same to defeat Western Kentucky to win the Conference USA tournament. I suspect the bubble bursts for the Mean Green tonight. Before their victory against the young Boilermakers on Friday, the best team that North Texas had beat was probably Louisiana Tech that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 74th best team in the nation. They lost by double-digits against Arkansas and West Virginia earlier in the season — and they lost to 8 points to North Texas. Grant McCasland is a great coach, and it is a nice story for this team. But they turn the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions — and that number rises to 20.6% of their possessions on the road, ranking 238th in the nation. They also do not get many freebies as they rank 283rd in free throw rate. Turnovers and lack of free throws are giving too many scoring opportunities to a Wildcats team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Texas did hold the Boilermaker stock 36.2% shooting which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last three games. But not only have they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make better than 37% of their shots but they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 37%. As expected, Jay Wright made adjustments to his schemes with the eight days he had since losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Georgetown. With point guard Collin Gillespie out the rest of the season, Wright had the offense structured around senior Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who is having an All-American worthy season. He scored 22 points on Friday. Sophomore Justin Moore is a rising star who can handle the point guard duties. This is Jay Wright. This is still Villanova. The program is loaded with talent. There is a reason this team has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when favored in the NCAA Tournament. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. In their two previous upset losses before the tournament, the one against Providence was after Moore suffered an injury that kept him out of the second half. Their upset loss to Georgetown then was by one point against a Hoyas team that looks much better ten days later. Don’t overreact to one close loss.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games when playing on a neutral court — and North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB TNT Game of the Year with the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (808) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Griffins (807). THE SITUATION: Florida (15-9) has won two of their last three games with their 75-70 upset win against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Oral Roberts (17-10) pulled off the upset of the tournament with their 75-72 triumph against Ohio State as a 15-point underdog on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: After pulling off the upset win against the Buckeyes, I suspect it is time for the bubble to burst for the Golden Griffins. Oral Roberts upset won the Summit League title game by a 75-72 score against North Dakota State in another nail-biter — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Before beating Ohio State, the Golden Eagles’ best win was against a South Dakota State team that metrics guru ranks at 114th in the country. They have suffered double-digit losses to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. Florida should be ready to roll as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. And while the Gators’ upset win against the Hokies was their first point spread cover in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They should have plenty of success hitting 3s against this Oral Roberts team that allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their shots from downtown, 237th in the nation. Florida hits 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by a rising superstar in Tre Mann, the Gators should overwhelm these upstarts.

FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the postseason — including three of their last four appearances in the NCAA Tournament. Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Oral Roberts-Florida truTV Special with the Florida Gators (808) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Griffins (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (18-12) has won two of their last three games after their 85-62 upset win against North Carolina as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Baylor (23-2) has won five of their last six games after their 79-55 win against Hartford as a 25.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin played one of their best games of the season in their upset win against the Tar Heels. They made 13 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. Regulars know that I typically want to fade teams coming off outlier performances. While it is one of the factors I look at, it is not a controlling variable. I do not expect the Badgers to replicate that effort. However, I do take heart that Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. Greg Gard’s team has a psyche that feeds off positive or negative vibes — this is why I value team trends. Frankly, I thought this Wisconsin team was overvalued in December — but I find them undervalued now after bettors shied away from them after they lost six of eight games heading into the Big Dance. I still think it is somewhere in the middle. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games on the road after losing four of five of their last six games. The laptops love this Wisconsin team — they rank 12th by Ken Pomeroy, and they rank 11th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Gard’s system attempts to control the tempo with a slow-pace — they rank 319th in pace this season. This helps them keep games close — they are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor held Hartford to just 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 10 games. The Bears have struggled on the defensive end o the court — they entered the Big Dance just 180th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the last three weeks of the season. The COVID pauses they have endured have taken away important practice time where Scott Drew can address footwork issues. I think Baylor should play better defense in their tournament run — but this is not likely to be peak-Drew defensive intensity. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. But the Bears have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. These team trends tell me that Baylor is primed to experience some nervy moments this afternoon. They have generated at least 16 more shots than their last two opponents — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after attempting at least 10 more shots than their opponents in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has five battle-tested seniors with tons of chemistry, cohesion, and experience. I think they will be a tough-out — and have thought so for months if they were in a situation like this in the tournament. Baylor is great — but these favorites with National Championship aspirations can succumb to the pressure in situations like this (see Illinois). What do the team trends say? The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Wisconsin is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under Gard in the Big Dance — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. 10* CBB Wisconsin-Baylor CBS-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET On Sunday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (809) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (810). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (25-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 71-60 win against Georgia Tech as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Illinois (24-6) has won eight straight games with their 78-49 win against Drexel as a 19.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS PLUS THE POINTS: Loyola outlasted the ACC Tournament champions in their opening-round game despite shooting 47.2% from the field which is pretty good but still their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Ramblers are an outstanding shooting team that ranks 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4%. Loyola should build off the momentum from that win as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread win. The Ramblers are ranked 10th in the nation by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy — and they perform similarly by other analytics projections. I am trusting the laptops a bit on this one. Loyola has the pedigree of a team that should be very competitive against an, albeit, outstanding Illini team. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are second in the country in limiting their opponents to rebounding just 20.7% of their missed shots. They have the fifth-lowest opponent free-throw rate. They nail a healthy 35.9% of their 3-pointers. They play at the 305th slowest pace in the nation — fewer possessions lulls the opponent into their style which can be very dangerous for favorites with national championship aspirations. The Ramblers also play better on the road where they have the sixth-best Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Illinois was nearly flawless against the Dragons on Friday — it will be tough for them to maintain that high, high level of play. They held Drexel to 30.6% shooting which was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 23 games. The Fighting Illini have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Their 57.1% shooting percentage was their best mark in their last 25 games. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. They only committed five turnovers on Friday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not committing more than five turnovers in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 39-21 lead at halftime, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 15 points in their last game. Additionally, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing their second game in three days. The only negative thing I can say about this Illini team is that they are not great at the free-throw line — and that might help down the stretch for the Ramblers to keep things close. Illinois makes 68.6% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 244th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Loyola is a live dog who would love to upset their in-state rival who will not put them on their non-conference schedule. The Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament including a Final Four run in 2018 under head coach Porter Moser. They will be confident — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (809) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (788) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (787). THE SITUATION: BYU (20-6) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference in an 88-78 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 9th. UCLA (18-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 86-80 win in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog against Michigan State in the play-in game on Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU had a second half lead late in the game before the undefeated Bulldogs pulled away — but they have probably played the number one team nation closer than any of their other opponents which includes Iowa, West Virginia, and Virginia. They should respond with a confident and resilient effort. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. BYU has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The Cougars are a balanced team who have been more effective away from Salt Lake City. While they rank 51st in the nation i Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They are 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 25th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the total set in the 130s. UCLA may be due for a letdown after rallying from a 14-point deficit to eke out the win against the Spartans in overtime. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 79 points in their last two games, they  have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Their star player, Johnny Juzang, twisted his ankle late in the game on Thursday — he is questionable for this one. His loss would be tough to overcome — this group already lost Chris Smith in late December two a season-ending injury, who bypassed the NBA draft last spring. The Bruins played their best basketball at home where they ranked 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They fall to 60th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road with a big decline in their effectiveness on defense. UCLA ranks 149th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their rank of 60th when at home. Furthermore, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games played on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 20* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the BYU Cougars (788) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (787). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (506) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (505). THE SITUATION: Memphis (18-20) lost their fourth game in five contests last night in a 116-103 upset loss at home to the Warriors as a 7-point favorite. Golden State (22-20) has won two in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Warriors were without Stephen Curry last night who was not able to play because of a bone bruise he suffered near the end of their game Wednesday with Houston. Jordan Poole and Damian Lee stepped up to combine to nail 7 of their 14 shots from behind the arc to score 46 points to fill the void left by Curry. A letdown is likely tonight as Golden State is just 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 games after a win by at least 10 points. The Warriors have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, Golden State is just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games played without rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Memphis has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: While Memphis is still without Jaren Jackson who has not played this season, they are otherwise healthy. Curry is out again for the Warriors. While the NCAA Tournament grabs most of our attention, we don’t want to let this rock-solid situation pass us by. 20* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (506) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (781) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (782). THE SITUATION: St. Bonaventure (16-4) has won three in a row as well as six of their last seven games after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament with a 74-65 win against VCU as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. LSU (18-9) lost in the finals of the SEC tournament in an 80-79 loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BONNIES PLUS THE POINTS: With five-straight point spread covers, many basketball observers think this LSU team has “found another gear”. Maybe. Will Wade’s team has the talent to hang with any team in the nation. The problem has been their discipline and focus — and I am very worried about them entering the NCAA Tournament feeling themselves after a good week in the SEC tournament. LSU played their best basketball at home where they were 11-2 while ranking 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. But the Tigers were just 7-7 on the road with a +0.6 net points-per-game differential — and they fall to 44th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home. The biggest area of concern is the decline in their play on defense away from Baton Rouge. While LSU ranks a mediocre 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 218th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Defensive rebounding is the main source of these troubles. The Tigers rank 325th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.8% of their missed shots. They have allowed their last four opponents to get at least 15 second-chance scoring opportunities — and Arkansas and Alabama pulled down a whopping 40% of their missed shots. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 15 offensive rebounds in two straight games. This is a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Enter St. Bonaventure who ranks 30th in the nation by pulling down 33.6% of their missed shots. This is a young-but-talented team that returned all five starters (albeit one transferred after losing his starting gig) from last year’s group that finished 19-12 last year. Head coach Mark Schmidt has overseen at least 18 wins in seven straight seasons — but this is just his team’s second appearance in the Big Dance during that span. After winning the Atlantic 10 regular season and conference titles, the Bonnies will be confident and anxious to prove themselves on this stage. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a win against a conference opponent. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning three of their last four games. The Bonnies are an outstanding defensive team that has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They are fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to 60.1 PPG. A slow tempo helps — they operate at the 319th slowest-rate in the nation. I expect this plodding pace to frustrate LSU who wants to run — and tempo showdowns tend to favor the slower team. But it not just fewer scoring opportunities as to why the Bonnies are outstanding on defense. St. Bonaventure ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% is the 14th best in the nation. Furthermore, while the Bonnies rank 45th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they rise to 17th best in the nation in that metric when on the road. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Defense travels — St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 8 straight games played on a neutral court. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as a favorite. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Tip-Off with the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (781) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (729). THE SITUATION: Villanova (16-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 72-71 upset loss to Georgetown as a 6-point favorite in the Big East tournament last Thursday. Winthrop (23-1) has won seven straight games after their 80-53 win against Campbell to win the Big South conference tournament on March 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Winthrop is a trendy upset pick tonight by the same folks who wanted to build a shrine to Jay Wright after he won his last NCAA Tournament a couple of years ago. The Wildcats suffered a big blow with the season-ending injury to their senior point guard leader, Colin Gillespie. But the cupboard ain’t bare in Philadelphia — and Wright has had over a week to fine-tune how he will live life without Gillespie. Point guard duties go to sophomore Justin Moore who is a rising star. Villanova has been upset twice in a row — they were stunned by Providence, 54-52, in their final regular-season game before the Big East tournament. Moore was injured in that game and did not play in the second half. He is healthy again — but it contextualizes that loss. The Wildcats have a star player in Jeremiah Robinson-Earl as well. Villanova is 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread loss. They are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Does Winthrop feel the pressure of expectations with this golden opportunity to topple a nouveau-blue blood without their floor general? They have covered the point spread in their last three games with victories by at least 21 points in all three games. Yet the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning three in a row all by double-digits including failing to cover the point spread in all three of those situates this season. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. This team plays at the 11th fastest tempo in the nation — that is a good way to blowout lesser teams, but it goes against the Giant Killer principles since more possessions allow for more opportunities for the Regression Gods to correct outlier performances (or, in the other words, more possessions helps favorites and teams with more talent). Winthrop’s strength of schedule is simply not impressive: their best win is against a Furman team that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 92nd team in the nation. Only three of the Eagles’ opponents (representing four games) rank in Pomeroy’s top 207 teams! Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight NCAA Tournament games. Villanova has covered the point spread in 7 straight NCAA Tournament games when favored. Trust Jay Wright. 20* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (750) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (749). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (23-4) won the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Syracuse (16-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 72-69 loss to Virginia as a 5.5-point underdog last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning two of their last three games. The Orange were 13-1 on the home court this season — but they were just 3-9 away from the Carrier Dome where they were outscored by -2.9 PPG. The deeper metrics are pretty ugly. Syracuse ranked 38th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when at home but they drop to 58th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. The vaunted Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone is supposed to take over to perplex teams in March. But while the Orange ranked 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 206th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency wen away from the troubling sightlines at the Carrier Dome. Their opponents made 35.6% of their 3-pointers away from the Carrier Dome, ranking 227th nationally. Perhaps it just took some time during a pandemic for Boeheim to teach his complicated principles this season? In their last ten games, Syracuse’s opponents made 35.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 214th nationally. San Diego State makes 37.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 27th best in the nation. They also pull down a healthy 29.9% of their missed shots, 109th nationally, so they should be able to exploit the open space in the key which is the vulnerability of the 2-3 zone. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a double-digit win. And while San Diego State has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Aztecs played better on the road this season. While they ranked 19th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home (not bad!), they rise to 10th in the nation with that metric on the road. Defense travels — they are 10th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just 60.6 PPG on 38.8% shooting, ranking 8th, and 7th respectively. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court when favored by 6 points or less. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Diego State Aztecs (750) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (727) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (728). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (17-12) has lost four of their last five games after losing to Iowa by a 62-57 score as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina (17-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 69-66 loss to Florida State as a 3-point underdog in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin only made 38.6% of their shots against the Hawkeyes which was the worst effort in their last four games. The Badgers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. The pundits were too high on this team early in the season enamored with the Badgers returning five seniors that all scored at least 8.7 PPG from a group that shared the Big Ten title. The Wisconsin starting five is older than the Chicago Bulls’ starting five. But the problem with having so many seniors is that none of them were talented enough to leave early for the NBA. There is a talent issue with the Badgers which explains why they lost nine games against teams ranked ahead of them in the AP poll. Now, these same pundits feel burned by their early love for Wisconsin and jumped off the bandwagon. But this remains a scrappy, veteran team that is battle-tested and remained loved by the laptops. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Badgers’ 12th best in the nation while ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wisconsin is 9-4-3 ATS in their last 16 games on a neutral court as an underdog. North Carolina tends to underachieve when playing after an extended break. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread when playing their second game in eight days. And while North Carolina has pulled down at least 42 rebounds in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rebounding at least 41 boards in three straight games. The Tar Heels live off the glass — they lead the nation by pulling down 41.3% of their missed shots. The problem is that they miss too many shots. They rank 248th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.5% — and they make only 31.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th, with Roy Williams still playing 1980s-style basketball. North Carolina averages only 5.6 made 3-pointers per game, which was 13th in the ACC. They also turn the ball over in 20.5% of their possessions, 256th nationally, which mitigates their offensive rebounding. It is telling that this is Williams’ third-worst offensive unit in his 18-year tenure with the program. While the Tar Heels rank 60th in the nation and second in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 82nd nationally while crashing to 12th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This North Carolina team is very young — they rank 330th in team experience while starting two freshmen guards. The experience of this Ohio State team — who remains very good and consistently competed against teams better than the Tar Heels every week in the Big Ten — should make a big difference. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Wisconsin-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (727) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (748) minus the points versus the Liberty Flames (747). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (20-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game in a 91-86 loss to Texas as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (23-5) won the Big South tournament by defeating Northern Alabama by a 79-75 score as a 13-point favorite on March 7th. This game is being played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Liberty is a trendy underdog pick in this game because they are outstanding at shooting the basketball. They are 10th in the nation by making 38.8% of their shots. However, most of this good work was done at home with the friendly rims bought by Jerry Falwell, Sr. The Flames nail 44.5% of their 3-pointers at home which is the third-best mark in the nation. But they only make 35.4% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking just 81st nationally. Liberty plays at a slow pace which is good for Giant Killers as it can trap big favorites into some anxiety-ridden moments. The problem for the Flames is they have no Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling (expect “shoot more 3s” — they are 15th in the nation in 3-point attempt ratio). Liberty is 298th nationally by pulling down 23.2% of their missed shots, and they are 261st in forcing turnovers in just 173.% of their opponent’s possessions. This team had a chance to shoot their way into upset wins against Purdue and Missouri this season but lost by 13 and 9 points respectively. Liberty ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 79th in that metric away from campus. They do play a “pack-line” defense — but too often basketball pundits assume the warrant is in the claim when making that assertion. Not all “pack-lines” are built the same, or everyone would be copying the Virginia defense (and Liberty is not Virginia). The Flames have covered the potion spread in 6 of their last 8 games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys allowed the Longhorns to make 49.1% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Cowboys rank 35th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 29th nationally when playing on the road. The Liberty backline plays a little farther out to ward off 3s — but that is not Oklahoma State’s primary focus on offense. Cade Cunningham can create his shot that drives this offense — he is the straw that stirs the drink. What Liberty player is defending the number one pick in the NBA draft? Ultimately, the Cowboys have fared well against opponents that profile like the Flames. Liberty averages 10 made 3s on 26 attempts per game. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch at least 21 shots from distance per game, and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. And while the Liberty packline holds their opponents to just 41.0% shooting, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Maybe Liberty makes close to 40% of their 3s to keep this game close — or pull the upset. Oklahoma State is ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their opponents to making only 31.7% of their 3s. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. A good way to beat a Giant Killer is to counter them with NBA talent. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (748) minus the points versus the Liberty Flames (747). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (738) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Virginia Tech (737). THE SITUATION: Florida (14-9) enters the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four games after their 78-66 loss to Tennessee as a 6.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the SEC tournament last Friday. Virginia Tech (15-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-71 loss to North Carolina as a 0.5-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament last Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S):  Florida played one of their worst games of the season against the Volunteers — they allowed Tennessee to make 46.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Even worse, they made just 34.5% of their shots which was a season-low. The Gators have not covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. This is a team that has handled adversity all season — including overcoming the loss of their best player, Keyonte Johnson, when he had that scary collapse on the court early in the year. Sophomore point guard Tre Mann developed into perhaps the Most Valuable Player in the SEC this season. This team plays great defense for head coach Mike White — they rank 36th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by them blocking 14.4% of their opponent's shots, 12th best in the nation. The ceiling is pretty high for this team — they have defeated Tennessee, West Virginia, and LSU this season. I like this spot for them to erase the bad memories of their recent slide with a victory this afternoon. This team ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at both home and on the road — so this is not a team like Michigan State who played significantly better on their familiar home court. The Gators improve to 29th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road as compared to their 64th ranking in that metric when playing at home. Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games on a neutral court as a favorite of three points or less to a pick ‘em (in case they move to a favorite before tip-off). I hate this situation for Virginia Tech — they have played only one game since February 27th and have just three games under their belts in the last six weeks! A two-week COVID pause before the ACC tournament is the reason that this team has been so inactive. The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. Virginia Tech has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Hokies were tops in ACC play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but while they ranked 54th nationally and led the ACC in that metric when playing at home, they dropped to 77th nationally and sixth in ACC play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. The Hokies have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 first-round games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Florida Gators (738) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Virginia Tech (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (717) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA did not have their best player, Johnny Juzang, in the regular-season finale against USC, and he was only able to play 24 minutes against the Beavers in that overtime loss in the Pac-12 tournament. With an additional seven days off since that game, Juzang should be in better condition this game. The Bruins are on a four-game losing streak, but all four of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams with the Trojans winning on a last-second shot (even without Juzang) and Oregon State forced overtime with a buzzer-beater in regulation. The loss to the Beavers does not look as bad now that they won the Pac-12 tournament either. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Bruins only made 42.9% of their shots against Oregon State which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Despite that effort and not having Juzang in the USC loss, UCLA is still making 50% of their shots in their last five games. Michigan State really missed Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Head coach Tom Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of his shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. The Spartans pulled off their upset wins against Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State on their home court. Michigan State ranked 35th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home at the Breslin Center where they were 12-3. But the Spartans are 3-9 on the road where they are outscored by -10.8 PPG. They plummet to ranking 117th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road — and they were 13th in the Big Ten in that metric away from home. Sparty also ranked 13th in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road in Big Ten play. They rank 71st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home but just 151st in that metric on the road. They rank 27th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home but fall to 99th on the road. This is not a good team away from home which is a testament to the inexperience Izzo brought back this season. That is not a good sign for Izzo when considering his teams have not covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. Michigan State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored. UCLA has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UCLA Bruins (717) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-7) has won six straight games after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament with their 71-63 victory against Morgan State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 13th. Appalachian State (17-11) has won four in a row after taking the Sun Belt conference tournament title with their 80-73 victory against Georgia State as a 7-point underdog on March 8th. This play-in game in the First Four earns the 16th seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE NORFOLK STATE PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State found lightning in a bottle in the Sun Belt tournament with three straight upset victories against Texas State, Coastal Carolina, and then the Panthers to claim the title. They limped into the conference tournament with six losses in their previous seven games. I expect an emotional letdown for the Mountaineers now. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after an upset victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Appalachian ranks 217th in the nation in the advanced metrics I rely on — yet in their most recent ten games, they fall to 236th during that span. They only made 43.6% of their shots against Georgia State but that was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Mountaineers struggle to score baskets. They are making just 37.8% of their shots in their last five games. They rank 227th nationally with a 3-point shooting percentage of 32.6% while ranking 283rd in the nation by making just 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. Their shooting struggles intensify when playing away from home where they make just 39.3% of their shots. And while they rank 192nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 241st in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Appalachian State played better at home this season where they ranked 193rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 239th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Norfolk State ranks 208th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and while they rank 252nd when playing at home, they improve to 182nd nationally when playing on the road. They only made 42.4% of their shots in winning the MEAC Championship Game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Spartans are still making 46.6% of their shots in their last five games. This is a good shooting team that ranks 32nd in the nation by making 37.4% of their 3-pointers. This is also a team this improving on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 37.6% shooting which resulted in only 58.4 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 65 points. Norfolk State has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They are led by a do-it-all senior point guard in Devante Carter who scores 15.5 PPG while adding 5.3 RPG and 4.0 APG. The Spartans have balanced scoring with six players scoring at least 7.6 PPG. Overall, this team has a nice pedigree to advance (and earn the right to lose to Gonzaga on Saturday).

FINAL TAKE: Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Game of the Year with the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Southern Tigers (716) plus the point(s) versus Mount St. Mary’s (715). THE SITUATION: Texas Southern (16-8) won the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament with their 80-61 upset win against Prairie View A&M as a 1.5-point underdog on March 13th. Mount St. Mary’s (12-10) has won four in a row after winning the Northeast Conference tournament with their 73-68 upset win at Bryant on March 9th. This play-in game for a 16th seed is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: I leaned to Texas Southern — but with the steam all on Mount St. Mary’s which was pushed the oddsmakers to install them as a small favorite this afternoon, the value is now on the Tigers. The conventional wisdom is that in this battle of styles, the Mountaineers will coax Texas Southern into a slower-pace. Maybe … but I still expect the Tigers to outscore Mount St. Mary’s even in a lower-scoring game. Texas Southern is long and fast — and their athleticism could simply overwhelm the Mountaineers. They will have the best player on the court in Michael Weathers. The former Oklahoma State transfer is averaging 16.5 PPG with 5.2 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 2.2 steals-per-game. The Tigers are battle-tested from a non-conference schedule that included Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Auburn, and BYU. They have won nine straight games as well as 14 of their last 15. Texas Southern is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have scored at least 80 points in two straight games and in four of their last five games — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Texas Southern ranks 227th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 175th in that metric when playing on the road. Mount St. Mary’s ranks 212th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 281st when on the road. The Mountaineers play elite defense with a frontline that boasts three players at 6’9. They rank 15th nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. Duly noted. But while they have an overall opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5%, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Mount St. Mary's struggles to score baskets. While they are 239th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 281st nationally when playing on the road. Even if this is a low-scoring game, the Mountaineers will need to score. Texas Southern uses their athleticism to help them make 45% of their shots — and Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: A weakness of Texas Southern is that they can be sloppy with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.5% of their possessions, ranking 295th nationally. Yet Mount St. Mary’s does not try to force turnovers as they rank 308th in the nation with a defensive turnover rate of 16.4%. The Mountaineers only forced 8 turnovers against Bryant — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not forcing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral court. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Southern Tigers (716) plus the point(s) versus the Mount St. Mary’s (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). THE SITUATION: Dallas (20-18) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-99 loss against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (26-15) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Clippers on Monday — and this is a good opportunity to zig-zag with the Mavs. Dallas was held scoreless in the last 3:15 minutes of that game while missing all five of their shots. They only took five free throws all game. Luka Doncic had an off-game for him by making only 9 of 23 shots from the field including just 4 of 11 from 3-point range. The Mavericks allowed the Clippers to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. While under-the-radar, Dallas has played much better on defense as of late under head coach Rick Carlisle. Over their last ten games, the Mavericks rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Finally getting healthy has helped after this team has dealt with a host of injuries and their share of COVID issues. When Carlisle can start Doncic with a healthy Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, and Maxi Kleiber, they have won nine of those thirteen games. In their last 15 games, Dallas is 11-4 while ranking sixth in the league with their Net Efficiency Rating. They should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They host the Clippers again where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Los Angeles’ enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last five games by making 50% of their shots. But the Clippers have been consistently inconsistent — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are not at full strength with Patrick Beverley out with a knee injury and Serge Ibaka questionable with a back issue.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (546) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (545). THE SITUATION: Memphis (17-19) has lost three in a row after their 122-99 loss at Phoenix as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Miami (22-18) has five in a row as well as eleven of their last twelve after their 113-98 victory against Cleveland as an 11.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat have found their form again after getting back to near full health. But their 49.4% shooting percentage last night was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by at least 15 points. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread cover as a favorite. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Miami is dealing with some injuries again. Avery Bradley is out with a calf injury. Andre Iguodala is dealing with a hip. Maurice Harkless is ill. Memphis only made 43.7% of their shots against the Suns which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after a point spread loss. And while Memphis has lost four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Grizzlies return home where they are just 8-12 — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 35 home games as an underdog getting up to 6 points. The Grizzlies have faltered on defense by allowing their last two opponents to make 56.6% and 57.5% of their shots — but they still rank 9th in the NBA in Adjusted Efficiency. The Grizzlies are second in the NBA by forcing turnovers in 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Heat are tied for second-to-last in the league turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis should have Justise Winslow for this game — he is listed as probable with his hip. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (546) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a 61-57 upset loss to North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Saint Mary’s (14-9) last played on March 8th when they lost to Gonzaga by a 78-55 score as an 18.5-point underdog in the West Coast Conference tournament semifinals. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky took the Mean Green to overtime despite making only 34.0% of their shots in what was a season-low. And while they held North Texas to just 39.3% shooting, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Head coach Rick Stansbury’s team should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Conference USA rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. The Hilltoppers are led by an NBA prospect in junior Charles Bassey who scores 17.7 PPG and pulls down 11.5 RPG. They will be without senior Carson Williams who is out for this game due to personal reasons — but the senior was only scoring 7.5 PPG, and Stansbury’s team is blessed with depth. Western Kentucky beat Alabama earlier in the season so the potential is high for this team. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games as an underdog. Saint Mary’s may have more trouble getting up for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Gaels made only 36.1% of their shots against the Bulldogs -- but they have not shot better than 39.5% of their shots in five straight games. Saint Mary’s replaced their top three scorers from last season — and they simply were not a good shooting team this year. After ranking 4th in the nation by nailing 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc last year, the Gaels plummeted to 328th nationally by making only 29.3% of their 3-pointers. The problem for Randy Bennett is that the Hilltoppers interior play is the strength of their defense with Bassey patrolling the paint. Western Kentucky limited their opponents to just 45.8% shooting inside the arc, 38th best nationally. As it is, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after not shooting better than 40% in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after not shooting better than 40% in four straight contests. To compound matters, the Gaels played their best when at home where they were 9-3 and ranked 40th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Saint Mary’s had a losing 5-6 record away from home while dropping to ranking 115th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Their offensive numbers tell the story: while ranking 128th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they are 269th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Gaels lack quality wins — their highest-profile win was against Colorado State who is in the NIT. They had troubling losses to Pepperdine and Santa Clara. The oddsmakers are relying on statistical projection models that are vulnerable because of the lack of a large sample size of non-conference play that can help accurately gauge relative conference strengths. I suspect Saint Mary’s gets exposed in this game as being just not very good. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in the postseason. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games as an underdog playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT First Round Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (532) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (531). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (28-12) won their sixth straight game with a 99-96 win against New York as a 7-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (25-14) has won four in a row as well as nine of their last ten with their 133-122 victory at Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philly is without Joel Embiid for a few weeks as he deals with his knee injury — but this remains a talented team even without his MVP-level contributions this season. Tobias Harris scored 30 points in the win on Monday — and Ben Simmons takes on a more of a central role when Embiid is off the court. Head coach Doc Rivers has done a great job with this team that general manager Daryl Morey has assembled. The Sixers beat the Knicks despite making only 41.1% of their shots which was the lowest shooting percentage in their last nine games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they are 18-3 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court. Additionally, the 76ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 home games with the total at 220 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last contest. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 12 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while this is Milwaukee’s third game on the road since Saturday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their third game in five days on the road. The Bucks are just 10-9 on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (532) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). THE SITUATION: Portland (22-16) has lost two of their last three games with their 114-112 upset loss at Minnesota on Sunday as a 5-point favorite. New Orleans (17-22) comes off a 135-115 upset victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Pelicans made a whopping 65.4% of their shots against the Clippers which was a season-best for them. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games on the road after pulling off an upset victory by double-digits as an underdog of at least 6 points. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — so maintaining a basic level of consistency has been a problem for first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy. Additionally, the Pelicans do not fare well with a likely scoring-fest on the horizon. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. With this game featuring two of the bottom three teams in the NBA in Defensive Rating and the total opening at 240(!), this does not bode well for the Pelicans. This team struggles on defense despite having the coaching wizardry of Van Gundy who coached a pretty good Orlando team in the 1990s. New Orleans is third-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their 3-pointers. Here comes the Blazers who are second in the NBA with a 46.5% mark from behind the arc and by generating 42.2% of their points from 3-point shots. The Pelicans go on the road where they are just 5-12 this season while allowing their home hosts to make 48.4% of their shots which results in 116.5 PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Portland only made 43.8% of their shots in their embarrassing upset to a Timberwolves team that has a strong claim in being the worst in the league. That was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Trail Blazers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in four days. And while Portland has allowed at least 106 points in six straight games, they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. They do get a shot in the arm with the expected return of C.J. McCollum who has been out for the last 25 games with a foot injury. In his 13 games this season, the star guard averaged 26.7 Points-Per-Game while contributing 5 Assists-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with Zach Collins and Jusef Nurkic still out and Harry Giles III upgraded to questionable tonight. Yet after a slow 10-9 start to the season, the Blazers have still won twelve of their last nineteen with Damian Lillard leading the way while getting nice help from Gary Trent and Carmelo Anthony. Portland returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without J.J. Reddick who is dealing with a neck injury — losing his 3-point shooting will not help Zion Williamson’s attempt to have his 2-pointers count more than the 3-pointers from Lillard and McCollum. The Pelicans were upset by the Blazers on February 17th by a 126-124 as a 4.5-point home favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA TNT Tuesday Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (25-15) has lost four of their last five games after their 135-116 upset loss at New Orleans as a 6-point favorite last night. Dallas (20-17) has won five of their last six games after their 116-113 upset victory at Denver as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst defensive game of the season yesterday by allowing the Pelicans to nail 65.4% of their shots. They made only 45.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Clippers should play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Clippers have coved the point spread in 42 of their last 60 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss at home. Playing without rest should not be a problem for this team as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. The Clippers need to reverse their recent slide — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. LA has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. They stay on the road where they are now 12-9 but with an average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by double-digits as a road dog. The Mavericks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Dallas is playing much better basketball now that they are healthy again after dealing with a handful of players in quarantine — but they remain not very good on the defensive end of the court. They rank 24th in the NBA in Defensive Rating — and they tend to not do well when getting dragged into high-scoring games. The Mavericks have seen at least 219 combined points scored in three straight games. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing two straight games when at least 215 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Mavericks return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will remember suffering their worst loss in franchise history on December 27th in a 124-73 loss at home as a 3-point favorite. LA was without Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley in that game — and Serge Ibaka played only eight minutes. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Mavericks. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month on the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658) in the championship game in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (21-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 68-67 upset win against Michigan as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Illinois (22-6) has won five in a row with their 82-71 win against Iowa as a 3-point favorite yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State won yesterday despite making only 35.1% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last three games and their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Buckeyes are making 46.2% of their shots away from home — and they rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Chris Holtmann’s team can score. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes have also covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in five days. This is a veteran, battle-tested team — they have won 30 of their last 41 games with 32 of those games in the rugged Big Ten over the last two seasons. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when getting up to 6 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in a victory against a Big Ten opponent in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 45-37 halftime lead yesterday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games on the road after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Illinois has covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these games. The Illini ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they fall to 26th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. This team also makes only 68.8% of their free throws, ranking 247th nationally. If Illinois is leading in this game, the Buckeyes may still be able to scratch out a point spread cover by playing the fouling game. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament championship games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season showdowns with Ohio State winning in Champagne by an 87-81 score on January 16th before getting upset in Columbus on March 6th by a 73-68 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 61 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.