At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). THE SITUATION: Army (11-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-71 upset loss to Navy as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. American (12-7) has lost four games in a row after their 62-61 loss at Colgate as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army is one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. They actually are even more effective at shooting the basketball when they are playing on the road in hostile environments. When playing in another opponent’s gyms, the Black Knights rank 2nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.9%. They rank 39.3% of their 3-pointers in true road games, ranking 18th in the nation, and they are making 58.9% of their shots inside the arc in their eighth true road games, ranking 5th in the nation. American does not play great defense on their home court — they rank 239th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 50.4% when playing at home and both of their opponent 3-point and 2-point field goal percentage ranks 209th or worse in the nation. Army has a 5-3 record when playing in a hostile environment on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straights on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road with the total set in the 130s. Army also thrives in keeping their opponents off the offensive glass — they rank 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 24.2% of their missed shots. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 47 games in January. They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, Army has covered the point spread all 7 times. American has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by three points or less against a Patriot League rival. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Furthermore, American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They return home where they are 5-2 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 130s. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: American will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at Army on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (549) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (550). THE SITUATION: Denver (33-14) had their nine-game winning streak snapped in a 101-99 upset loss against Oklahoma City as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (26-21) has lost four games in a row after their 100-96 loss at Miami as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Denver gets back Nikola Jokic who has been confirmed to be returning to action tonight after missing the last two games to a hamstring injury. Without Jokic on Sunday against the Thunder, the Nuggets only made 43.9% of their shots which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 32 games. Denver is an elite offensive team — especially with Jokic leading the way — they rank 2nd in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss to a Northwest Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Denver’s play on the other end of the court has been their biggest weakness — but don’t look now but head coach Michael Malone has this group playing the 6th best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 15 games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans held the Heat to just a 43.7% shooting percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. New Orleans is dealing with their share of injuries as well with both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the shelf. The Pelicans have a 7-6 record when playing without both of these players which is a testament to C.J. McCollum's talent and head coach Willie Greene’s commitment to defense. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE:  New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to New Orleans to play the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (549) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (538) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (537). THE SITUATION: Utah (24-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 117-106 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 5-point favorite on Friday. Charlotte (13-34) has won two games in a row after their 122-118 win at Atlanta as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah only made 42.0% of their shots against the Nets which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 games. They also allowed Brooklyn to nail 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 47 of their last 73 games after an upset loss a home when they were favored — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. Utah has a 15-9 record at home where they have a +4.6 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 48.1% of their shots which has them generating 120.6 PPG. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Charlotte nailed 50.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. Charlotte’s previous game was a 122-117 win in Houston on Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after winning their previous two games by six points or less. The Hornets were on a five-game losing streak before winning these last two contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where they have an 8-18 record with a -5.2 net PPG differential. They allow their home hosts to make 48.6% of their shots which has resulted in these home teams scoring 120.1 PPG. Charlotte is also dealing with some injuries with LaMelo Ball being questionable with an ankle injury and Cody Martin being doubtful with a foot injury. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in Utah against the Jazz. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with Utah Jazz (538) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Richmond Spiders (890) minus the point(s) versus the VCU Rams (889). THE SITUATION: Richmond (11-8) has won four of their last five games after their 64-57 win against Rhode Island as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday. VCU (14-5) has won four in a row and nine of their last ten contests with their 83-55 win against UMass as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPIDERS MINUS THE POINT(S):                                                                   Richmond held the Rams to just 38.9% shooting which was actually the worst defensive effort in their last three games. The Spiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while Richmond has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Spiders now have a 9-1 record on their home court with a +14.0 net point differential. They are making 47.0% of their shots on their home court — and they rank 30th in the nation by nailing 58.0% of their shots inside the arc at home. They are also holding their opponents to 37.6% shooting at home which is resulting in their guests' 58.8 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. VCU played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Minutemen to 29.2% shooting this week. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points versus an Atlantic 10 rival. But now they go back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season while making only 42.2% of their shots. VCU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. The Rams lead the Atlantic 10 by nailing 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc — but that mark plummets to a 33.9% clip when they are playing away from home in all their games this season. Now they face a Spiders defense that limits their guests to 27.5% shooting from 3-point range when playing at home, ranking 42nd in the nation. And while VCU leads the conference by forcing turnovers in 25.8% of their opponent’s possessions, Richmond only turns the ball in 16.0% of their possessions at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams face a tough matchup against Chris Mooney’s team that protects the basketball while playing at a grindingly slow place — and who plays tough half-court defense on their home court. VCU’s Plan A is to hit their 3s which is more of a challenge when playing on the road. Their Plan B is to force turnovers which the Spiders are good at defending against. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of up to three points. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Richmond Spiders (890) minus the point(s) versus the VCU Rams (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Riverside Highlanders (795) plus the points versus the Cal-Davis Aggies (796). THE SITUATION: UC-Riverside (13-6) has won four games in a row after their 83-78 win in overtime against Cal Poly-SLO as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Cal-Davis (11-70 has won four games in a row as well with their 78-70 win at Cal-San Diego as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HIGHLANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Riverside allowed the Mustangs to make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. But the Highlanders have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread victory. UC-Riverside goes back on the road where they have an 8-4 record this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Highlanders match up well with the Aggies. They lead the Big West Conference by nailing 40.1% of their 3-pointers — and this shooting proficiency helps them rank 3rd in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Cal-Davis is last in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 40.2% of their 3-pointers — and they are also last in the Big West with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.6% against conference opponents. And while the Aggies lead the Big West by pulling down 37.3% of their missed shots, UC-Riverside leads the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding just 20.7% of their missed shots. Cal-Davis made 50.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But the Aggies are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win against a conference rival in their last contest. Furthermore, Cal-Davis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning four games in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 1-5-3 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Highlanders have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the UC-Riverside Highlanders (795) plus the points versus the Cal-Davis Aggies (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cal State-Fullerton Titans (908) minus the points versus the Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (907). THE SITUATION: CS-Fullerton (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-79 loss at Cal-Davis as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. CS-Bakersfield (6-11) ended their two-game losing streak in a 56-52 upset win against Cal-San Diego as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: CS-Fullerton allowed the Aggies to make 45.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. The Titans have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game in three days. They return home where they have a 7-1 record with a +13.2 net point differential. CS-Fullerton should play their defense much better tonight as they limit their guests to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in only 60.9 Points-Per-Game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is the first meeting between these two teams — and it is a good matchup for CS-Fullerton. The Titans lead the Big West Conference with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 47.1% — and the Roadrunners are 10th in the conference with an opponent free throw rate in Big West play. CS-Fullerton will get to the charity stripe a lot tonight — and they are nailing 76.3% of their free throws in conference play. The Titans also pull down 32.0% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking 4th in the Big West. CS-Bakersfield allows conference opponents to rebound 30.2% of their missed shots, ranking 7th in the Big West. CS-Fullerton is also nailing 37.3% of their 3-pointers in conference play, ranking 3rd in the Big West right now. On their home court, the Titans are making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. CS-Bakersfield made 42.6% of their shots on Saturday to end their losing streak — and that was actually the best shooting effort from them in their last seven games. But the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. CS-Bakersfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield ranks 345th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — they had scored just 48 points in each of their two previous games before their upset victory on Saturday. But the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after scoring 65 or more points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 this season with a -9.4 net PPG differential. They only make 38.3% of their shots on the road which is translating into just 55.4 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the  Cal State-Fullerton Titans (908) minus the points versus the Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (907). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 69-67 upset loss to Iowa State as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 56-46 win at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU allowed the Cyclones to nail 52.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They should rebound tonight as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Big 12 opponent. They are also 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Jamie Dixon has one of the most experienced teams in the nation — they rank 3rd in Division I with 77% of their minutes back from the club that took Arizona to overtime in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs play with a style that travels well to hostile environments. They rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Not only does this team create extra-scoring possessions, but they also play outstanding defense. TCU ranks 255th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are led by a superb point guard Mike Miles, Jr. who leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. The Horned Frogs have won all five of their games on the road this season while making 47.0% of their shots.  — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win including their last four contests after covering the point spread. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when playing their second game in five days. Interim head coach Rodney Terry is doing a fine job with this team — but the firing of head coach Chris Beard certainly hurts this squad. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games since Beard was suspended (and later fired when police pressed battery charges against him for what he did to his wife). If there is a flaw to this team, it is that they foul too much — they rank 246th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, while Texas ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark plummets to 112th in the country in defensive efficiency when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. TCU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (654) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (653). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (9-7) has won three of their last four games after an 81-79 victory at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Illinois (10-5) has won two of their last three games after their 79-69 victory against Wisconsin as a 7.5-point favorite on   Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Fighting Illini won their first game against a conference opponent over the weekend as they took full advantage of a Badgers team playing without their best player and leading scorer Tyler Wahl. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Now they go back on the road where they have just a 2-4 record away from home while getting outscored by -5.5 net Points-Per-Game. They only make 43.6% of their shots on the road. The Illini have talent — but they are way too loose with the basketball. They rank 292nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.7% of their possessions with four of their rotation players each turning the ball over at least 20% or more of their possessions. It gets worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 22.3% of their possessions, ranking 320th in the nation. Illinois lives and dies with the 3-pointer as well — they rank 25th in the nation by attempting 45.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Fighting Illini only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 131st in the country. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 130s. Nebraska returns home after playing their last two games on the road where they are 6-1 this season. They have beaten Iowa at home — and their lone loss at home was in overtime against a loaded Purdue squad that ranks 6th in the nation using the metrics at KenPom. The Cornhuskers outscore their guests by +13.6 net PPG while nailing 47.2% of their shots. They hold these visitors to 38.4% shooting which translates into only 61.7 PPG — and they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Nebraska has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 6 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. 20* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (654) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (568). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (18-22) has won two in a row and three of their last four games after a 120-109 victory against Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (21-20) has lost two of their last three games after a 102-101 loss to Brooklyn as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat are a M*A*S*H* unit right now with a host of injuries. The biggest loss for this team is Bam Adebayo who is out with a wrist injury. Miami scores -2.2 points per 100 possessions without Adebayo on the court — and they allow +1.4 points per 100 possessions without him. Adebayo is the foundation for what this team wants to do on both ends of the court — and they are already struggling to score points this season as they rank 24th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This team is missing several other important players including Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson among others. The Heat are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a point-spread win. They stay at home where they are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games when favored. Oklahoma City should be energized tonight as they play on national television for the first time since September 2020 (the COVID year when NBA teams played in the bubble). This could be a national coming-out party for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they are a decisive 45-22-3 ATS in their last 80 games after a point spread win. Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City looks to avenge a 110-108 loss at home to the Heat on December 14th when they rallied from a 21-point 2nd quarter deficit to just fall short of winning that game as a 2.5-point underdog. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 8 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (10-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-73 upset loss to SE Missouri State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee State (9-6) has won three of their last four games after a 94-69 victory against Arkansas-Little Rock as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: SIU-Edwardsville allowed SE Missouri State to nail 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 39.2% shooting which results in only 61.3 Points-Per-Game for their guests. SIU-Edwardsville has a 5-1 record at home with a net point differential of +15.9 net PPG. They have covered 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. The Cougars pulled down 32.7% of their missed shots, ranking 67th in the nation. They now face a Tigers team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their misses, ranking 244th. Tennessee State made 58.9% of their shots in what was a season-high shooting effort for them this season. They nailed 14 of their 25 shots from behind the arc. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a game where they hit 13 or more of their 3-pointers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. Additionally, Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road for the first time since December 3rd after playing seven straight games at home. They are just 1-4 on the road while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG. They only make 39.2% of their shots on the road and just 28.4% of their 3-pointers which translates into just 62.8 PPG. They are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games on the road — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Tennessee State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more straight games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN News Game of the Month with the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (17-14) has lost two of their last three games after their 125-111 upset loss to Washington as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Denver (21-11) has won four games in a row -- and seven of their last eight — with their 128-125 win in overtime against Phoenix as a 4-point favorite on Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento was flat on Friday night as they probably looking ahead to getting a few days off for the holidays. They only made 44.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Even worse, they allowed the Wizards to nail 55.7% of their shots in what was the defensive effort of the season. The Kings should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. Furthermore, Sacramento has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after an upset loss this season. Head coach Mike Brown is doing a great job with this team — but he needs to get his group to reinvest their efforts on defense after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Kings have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after their last opponent shot 55% or better from the field. They will be without Domantas Sabonis tonight who is dealing with a thumb injury — but they still have De’Aaron Fox and the role players are better when playing at home. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning two or more in a row. Now after completing a four-game home stand, Denver goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against the Kings — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Kings in Sacramento. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). THE SITUATION: Golden State (15-18) has lost two straight games — and five of their last six — after their 143-113 loss at Brooklyn as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 125-100 win at Phoenix as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State head coach Steve Kerr called out his team for their bad play after allowing the Nets to make 64.3% of their shots on Wednesday. That was the worst defensive effort for the defending NBA champions all season. The team remains without the injured Stephen Curry — but his absence does not come close to explaining this poor effort against Brooklyn. Klay Thompson got the night off in that game — and he will be back on the court tonight. The Warriors have been inconsistent from night to night — but after that bad effort and with this game on at the prestigious prime-time Christmas Day slot, expect a spirited effort from this proud group even without Curry. Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by 10 or more points. The extra days off will help — as will returning home after playing their last six games on the road. The Warriors are a disaster on the road where they are just 3-16 — but they have a 12-2 record back on their home court. Granted, Curry’s 45% shooting percentage from behind the arc on their home court plays a role in Golden State’s better play at home, but the team’s young players perform much better in their friendly and familiar confines. The Warriors are 48-23-2 ATS in their last 73 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. And while the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Memphis finishes up their four-game road trip for this contest. While the Grizzlies have a 13-2 record at home, they are just 7-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by -3.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to shoot 47.0% from the field. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played at Golden State against the Warriors. Even without Curry and the injured Andre Wiggins, the reigning champions should bring their A-Game tonight. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). THE SITUATION: Portland (17-15) has lost three of their last four games after a 101-98 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (19-11) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 105-91 win against Memphis as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has been upset twice this week in Oklahoma City on Monday and Wednesday — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road playing their third game in five days. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 110 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing their last game Under the Total with that game finishing far below the 236-point total. We had the Blazers on Wednesday and recognized they the team had been playing better with star Damian Lillard back from injury. Lillard only scored 16 points on Wednesday — but in his previous seven games this month, Lillard was scoring 32.6 Points-Per-Game. He was leading a scoring attack that is nailing 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 119.8 PPG before their flat effort against the Thunder — but they were still covering the point spread at the 2:29 minute mark of the fourth quarter. Against fellow Northwest Division opponents, Portland is still making 50.8% of their shots and scoring 120.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting six points or less. Portland has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Nuggets raced out to a 55-40 halftime lead against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after taking a 15-point or better lead into halftime. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Denver continues to struggle with their play on defense despite their strong effort against Memphis — they allow their opponents to make 48.7% of their shots which results in them giving up 114.0 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points . They may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with an ankle injury. But Michael Porter, Jr. may return to the court after missing time with a heel injury — although he may need some time to get rid of the rust. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when Porter returns to the court after missing the prior game which was a victory for Denver.

FINAL TAKE: Portland will be looking to avenge their 121-120 loss at home to the Nuggets in a heartbreaker on December 8th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Underdog of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (541) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (542). THE SITUATION: Portland (17-14) has lost two of their last three games after a 123-121 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Oklahoma City (13-18) has pulled off two straight upset victories after their win to begin the week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland has had two days in Oklahoma City to stew about that loss to the Thunder. This is the fifth game in a seven-game road trip — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their third game on the road in a five-game stretch. The Blazers have been playing better with star Damian Lillard back from injury. In his last seven games this month, Lillard is scoring 32.6 Points-Per-Game. He is leading a scoring attack that is nailing 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 119.8 PPG. Against fellow Northwest Division opponents, Portland is making 51.0% of their shots and scoring 123.1 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by three points or less against a divisional rival. The Thunder continue to defy expectations by covering the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Oklahoma City gets this rematch at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Thunder allow Northwest Division rivals to make 49.5% of their shots which translates into 120.9 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 opportunities for revenge against an opponent that scored 110 or more points against them. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (541) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (530) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (529). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (21-11) has won four games in a row after their 122-99 victory against Utah as a 7-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (22-8) has won two games in a row after their 128-119 upset win at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. They are also 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point-spread win. The Cavaliers play their fourth game at home during their six-game home stand having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their two previous games at home. Cleveland is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games on their home court — and they are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win — and they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win. They are also 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point-spread victory. The Bucks did make 55.6% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the best shooting mark in their last 11 contests — but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. That effort came on the heels of them making 53.3% of their shots in their previous game against Utah — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after shooting 50% or better in two straight games. While the Cavaliers have only been on one airplane flight in the last ten days amidst their home stand, the Bucks are racking up their frequent flyer miles during that span. Since December 11th, Milwaukee has flown to Houston -- then back home -- then to Memphis -- then back home before going south to New Orleans and now back up to Cleveland for this contest. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks trail the Cavaliers in Adjusted Net Rating this season with their +3.7 mark behind Cleveland’s league-leading +6.3 clip. Granted, Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton has missed much of the season — but Cleveland has been without Jarrett Allen for much of the year. Middleton is out again tonight with his knee issues. Allen is in good form — the Cavs hold their opponents to just a 22.2% rebounding mark on the offensive glass with Allen on the court. Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 117-102 loss in Milwaukee on November 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (530) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped with an 81-70 loss at West Virginia as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (5-4) has won three of their last four contests after their 68-57 win against Presbyterian as a 9-point favorite on December 11th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB lost for just the second time this season after losing to Toledo on a neutral court. They have bounced back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while the 50.0% shooting percentage of the  Mountaineers on Saturday was the Blazers’ worst defensive effort of the season, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a loaded team that returns six of the top nine players from last year’s group that won 27 games and lost to Houston in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. UAB has one of the best backcourts in the nation with high-scoring returning guard Jelly Walker now joined by LSU transfer Eric Gaines. They return home where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +31.2 points. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home with a 37.6% clip from behind the arc — and that is translating into 93.8 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 36.6% shooting on their home court which results in 62.6 PPG. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a loss on the road. Covering 16 or so points is a difficult challenge — but UAB plays a style that produces blowouts against inferior competition. They play at a blistering pace which is the 4th quickest in the nation. They force turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions (#91st in the nation) with four players in the top-80 percentile in steal rate — and the Gamecocks turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions, ranking 239th in the nation. They also crash the glass by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 183rd in the nation. The Gamecocks are rebuilding after firing head coach Frank Martin in the offseason after an 18-13 record and what they considered a disappointing 8th-place finish in the SEC. Only 15.4% of the minutes return from that team — and while two starters are back, they combined for under 25 minutes per game between them. The new head coach is Lamont Paris who built a strong program at Chattanooga. He brought in a handful of transfer players and recruited five-star G.G. Jackson to the school — and while Jackson oozes with potential, he is still only 17 years old. South Carolina upset Clemson early in the season — but they have lost to Colorado State, Davidson, Furman, and George Washington. They beat an overmatched Presbyterian team while shooting a season-high 49.1% from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. But they allowed the Blue Hose to make 52.2% of their shots which was the fourth opponent of theirs this season that made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams who are winning 60% or more of their games on their home court. In their six road games, South Carolina has lost four times with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only making 39.4% of their shots which is generating just 61.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to nail 49.8% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The real question for this game seems to be what UAB’s winning margin will be. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a double-digit underdog — and the Blazers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when laying 10 or more points. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (574). THE SITUATION: Boston (21-7) looks to snap a two-game losing streak after their 113-93 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 4.5-point favorite last night. Los Angeles (11-15) ended a three-game losing streak with their 124-117 win at Detroit as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston may have been still shaken up from losing to Golden State on Saturday as they failed to earn a small measure of revenge against a Warriors team that beat them in the NBA Finals. The Clippers are a tough match-up for them because of all the quality wing defenders they can throw at Jayson Tatum — especially with Kawhi Leonard back on the floor for them. But the Lakers are not nearly as strong a defensive team as the Warriors or Clippers. The Celtics have bounced back to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while Boston has suffered upset losses in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics only shot 43.4% from the field last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. They remain the top offense in the league scoring at a historic 119.7 points per 100 possession rate. They stay on the road where they are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They have been without Al Horford in the last four games — and they miss the size and intangibles he brings to the floor as a veteran leader. But the Lakers lack the size — outside of Anthony Davis — to take advantage of the absent Horford. Too often, Davis gets lulled into playing on the perimeter rather than playing the traditional center role for the Lakers. Los Angeles nailed 54.8% of their shots against the defensively-deprived Pistons — that was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 59 games after a straight-up win. Now after being on the road since December 2nd, they return home to play for the first time since November 30th. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after being on the road for seven or more days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Lakers are playing better basketball with Davis showing more effort and Russell Westbrook embracing a role off the bench leading the second unit — but this team has still failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Five of their last nine victories have been against San Antonio (three) and Detroit (two). Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against the Lakers. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (568) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (567). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (19-7) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 97-92 upset loss at Houston as a 10-point favorite. Golden State (14-13) ended a two-game losing streak with a 123-107 upset win at home against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee comes off their worst shooting performance of the season as they made only 36.7% of their shots which was a season-low while making only 28% of their 3-pointers. But the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Now they return home where they are making 47.7% of the shots from the field. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Bucks are slumping a bit on offense — but their defensive effort remains outstanding as they have held their last five opponents to 101.6 Points-Per-Game on a 42.6% shooting percentage. Milwaukee should step up tonight on national television against the reigning NBA champions. They are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Golden State held the Celtics to just 43.7% shooing which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win. Golden State demonstrated their championship potential against the Celtics — but we have seen these glimpses from them before this year before they took a step back to the lackluster selves they have demonstrated too often this season. The Warriors had won five of six games at the end of last month — but then they hosted an Indiana team playing without Tyrese Halliburton and Myles Turner and Stephen Curry played his worst game of the season in an 8-point loss as an 11-point favorite. Now Golden State begins a six-game road trip where they are just 2-10 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games away from home. Going into last week (before their loss at Utah), the Warriors were just 15th in the league in Adjusted Offense Efficiency on the road -- but they were even worse on the other end of the court where they ranked second-to-last in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Before that Jazz game (please forgive me for not updating the data yet), Golden State was allowing -12.8 points per 100 possessions more when on the road versus their defensive numbers at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors are catching the Bucks at the wrong time tonight after their effort against the Rockets. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Golden State-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (568) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (506) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (505). THE SITUATION: Indiana (13-16) has lost four of their last five games after their 121-115 loss at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday. Washington (11-14) has lost four in a row after their 115-111 loss at Chicago as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana should bounce back to play better as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, the Pacers return home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They may be without Myles Turner who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. But the Wizards are undermanned as well with both Bradley Beal and Will Barton out tonight with injuries. Washington made 48.8% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, the Wizards are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Washington looks to avenge a 127-117 upset loss at home to the Pacers on October 28th as a 5-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Wizards are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games at Indiana against the Pacers. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Indiana Pacers (506) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-9) has lost two in a row after their 121-106 loss at New Orleans as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (12-11) has won three of their last four games after their 130-111 win against Phoenix as a 3-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver made 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets rank 5th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after shooting 50% or better from the field in at least three straight games. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss. They are banged up a bit with Michael Porter out and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope along with Jeff Green questionable with injuries — but they are scoring at a 118.1 points per 100 possession rate without Porter on the court this year. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Dallas held the Suns to just 43.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games off a win at home. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last contest. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be looking to avenge a 98-97 upset loss at home to the Nuggets as a 10-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss where they were laying 7 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month is with the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (554) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (553). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-10) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 116-113 upset win at home against Golden State as a 1-point underdog on Tuesday. Detroit (5-18) has lost three in a row after a 140-110 loss to New York as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Mavericks are very reliant on Luka Doncic who has been spectacular this season — but they lack reliable secondary scoring options. In games like this when playing a bad team or a team undermanned due to injuries, Doncic tends to coast — and the team underachieves. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when favored.       They come off that upset win against the Warriors but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a win at home. And while Dallas has covered the point spread just twice in their last 14 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Rebounding is another concern — they rank 29th in the NBA in Rebounding Rate. They have been outrebounded in five straight games and 10 of their last 11 contests. Now they go on the road where they are just 1-7 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Detroit allowed the Knicks to make 56.2% of their shots which was a season-worst mark. They also allowed New York to pull down 61.2% of the available rebounds which was also a season-worst mark. The Pistons should work harder on defense and in crashing the boards after that embarrassing effort. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Detroit is undermanned themselves with Cade Cunningham out indefinitely with a shin injury and Jaden Ivey questionable with a knee. But Isaiah Stewart did return to the court on Tuesday — and the Pistons pull down +3.1% more rebounds when he is on the court. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after losing three in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against Western Conference opponents. 10* NBA Dallas-Detroit NBA-TV Special Detroit Pistons (554) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). THE SITUATION: Indiana (10-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-101 loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Brooklyn (9-10) has won three of their last four games after a 112-98 victory as a 2.5-point favorite at Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana played their worst game of the season on Wednesday. Their 38.5% shooting percentage was the worst offensive effort of the season. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 61.0% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive performance of the new season. But Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. While many expected this team to tank after beginning a rebuild when they traded Domantas Sabonis midseason last year, they are playing well. They may have the Rookie of the Year in Benedict Mathurin who they drafted as the sixth pick in the NBA draft from Arizona. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a dynamic floor general and scorer for the team. And while they may still deal Myles Turner and Buddy Hield for draft assets before the trade deadline, those are two nice complementary players in the meantime. Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning two of their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games this month. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The laptops like them a lot as they rank 11th in the league in net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. They rank 8th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they host a Nets team that can lack effort on defense and ranks 19th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacramento scored 153 points against them earlier this month. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a divisional rival — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Brooklyn is 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. This team is playing better under new head coach Jacques Vaughn — and Ben Simmons’ productivity has improved. But Simmons is still an issue for the team since he can lack aggressiveness on offense to avoid getting fouled — and the team lacks interior size on defense. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games with the Total set in the 230s. And in their last 40 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana looks to avenge a 116-109 loss in Brooklyn to the Nets on October 31st — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when they have the opportunity for revenge. The Nets were 7.5-point favorites in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Pacers. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (578) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (12-4) has won two of their last three games after their 119-111 win against Portland as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. Chicago (7-10) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 121-107 upset victory against Boston as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee opened the season with nine straight victories despite playing with an injured Khris Middleton. A rash of short-term injuries played a role in their losing three of four, but the Bucks are getting healthy again (besides for Middleton) — and they were 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with an average winning margin of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8  home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Chicago continues to play without Lonzo Ball — and veteran guard Goran Dragic is out with an injury which leaves them thin at the point guard position. The Bulls have played two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez defending the rim, Milwaukee leads the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is a bad matchup for an undermanned Bulls team that ranks only 20th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Bucks. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (578) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State (659) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (660) in the Maui Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 88-77 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite in their opening game in the Maui Invitational. Arizona (4-0) beat Cincinnati yesterday in this tournament by a 101-93 score as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State has been an elite defensive team under head coach Brian Dutcher — but scoring has been an issue. Their efficiency on offense improved in the second half of the season last year which helped them earn an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs returned most of the core of that team led by their leading scorer from last year Matt Turner. San Diego State brought in several transfer players who have already provided the team with additional scoring boosts. Darrion Trammel, a transfer from Seattle, has scored 20 or more points twice this year including 21 points against BYU. Jaedon LeDee, a transfer from TCU, scored 23 points against BYU. After making at least 51.0% of their shots in two of their first three games, the Aztecs made 50.8% of their shots against the Buckeyes last night. They are scoring 81.0 Points-Per-Game on 48.5% shooting -- and they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Led by the reigning Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year in big man Nathan Mensah, they remain elite on defense as well by ranking 9th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 50% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have played a challenging non-conference schedule which has included a 7-point win against BYU and a 12-point win at Stanford in their last game before this tournament. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has made at least 54.5% of their shots in all four of their games after nailing 80% of their shots in the second half last night against the Bearcats en route to a 62.3% shooting clip for the game. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. Second-year head coach Tommy Lloyd has a loaded roster again this season with six players averaging double-digits. But they have demonstrated some weaknesses. They are turning the ball over in 21.8% of their possessions, ranking 284th in the nation. The Aztecs force turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 79th in the nation. Arizona is also allowing their opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 312th in the nation. San Diego State is not crashing the glass on offense as they have in the past — but they are nailing 40.5% of their shots from 3-point land, ranking 23rd in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: This will be a clash of styles with Arizona leading the nation in Adjusted Tempo while scoring 104.3 PPG. But San Diego State ranks 331st in the nation in opponent possession length. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB San Diego State-Arizona ESPN Special with the San Diego State (659) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (545) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (546). THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-5) looks to bounce back from a 102-92 loss at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (7-6) has won two of their last three games after a 119-106 win against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis only made 39.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the lowest shooting percentage for them since their opening game of the season. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. Memphis should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 straight games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. And in their last 28 games after a point spread loss, they have covered the point spread in 20 of those contests. They will be without Desmond Bane and Zaire Williams tonight but Jaren Jackson, Jr. is expected to make his season debut tonight. He should have an instant impact to help improve the play on defense for this team. He was a first-teamer on the All-Defensive team last year after leading the league with 2.3 blocks per game. The Grizzlies held their opponents to 106.0 points per 100 possessions with Jackson on the court last year. Memphis has been a disappointment on the defensive end of the court so far this season — but they have been better as of late. They have held their last five opponents to 106.6 Points-Per-Game on 45.1% shooting which is a significant improvement over the 113.4 PPG and 45.8% opponent’s field goal percentage numbers they have posted for the season. And the Grizzlies still have Ja Morant who is scoring 28.1 PPG and dishing out 7.0 assists per game. Morant is nailing 41.0% of his shots from behind the arc — if he continues to come close to that mark, he will be unstoppable on the offensive end of the court. Memphis has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 46 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s. New Orleans might be without Zion Williamson tonight as he is listed as questionable with his right ankle injury. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans allowed the Rockets to make 50.6% of their shots on Saturday which continued a disturbing trend on defense. The Pelicans have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* NBA Memphis-New Orleans TNT Special with the Memphis Grizzlies (545) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (540) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (539). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (5-3) looks to rebound from a 143-100 loss to Toronto as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after a 109-101 win at Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite San Antonio seemingly tanking this season with the hopes of winning the NBA draft lottery so they can win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, head coach Gregg Popovich has his team playing hard. Led by Keldon Johnson, the Spurs have an intriguing group of young players. But they come off their worst game of the season against the Raptors where they shot a season-low 39.4% from the field. And with Toronto nailing 53.8% of their shots, San Antonio played their second-worst game of the season from a defensive field goal percentage perspective. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 125 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington tonight. Leonard is already implementing injury management for his knee issues and Covington is ill. The Clippers' victory against the Rockets finished Under the 223.5 total — and Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after playing an Under in their last game. They stay on the road having failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their previous game on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with San Antonio Spurs (540) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (506). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-4) has lost three of their last four games after a 115-108 loss to Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Chicago (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 108-99 upset win at Brooklyn as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Hornets have started the season undermanned with both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier out with injuries. Head coach Steve Clifford, in his second stint with the team after losing his job after the 2018 season, still has Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington — and he is getting nice contributions from Kelly Oubre and former lottery pick Dennis Smith, Jr. Clifford has this group playing hard with victories against two playoff teams last year in Golden State and Atlanta. Charlotte is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road. Chicago is also dealing with several injuries. Lonzo Ball is out for the first few months of the season undergoing rehabilitation with his knee. The Bulls had a 27-13 record with Ball healthy last season — but they fell off to a 19-23 mark when he was unavailable to play last year. Zach LaVine is questionable as he engages in injury load management early this season — he played 37:13 minutes last night against the Nets. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing without rest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-2) has lost two games in a row after a 124-115 loss at Indiana as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Washington (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 117-107 loss at Cleveland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has been a disappointment so far this season with two bad losses on the road after a sluggish effort at home against Orlando that they still pulled out by four points in their season-opener. But this should still be a feisty team that competes for one of the Play-In spots in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Pistons have one of the brightest young stars in the game in Cade Cunningham — and their two first-round draft picks last June, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran, have looked good so far this season. The team added two veterans in the offseason in Bojan Bogdanovich and Nerlens Noel to complement these players. Detroit shot only 38.9% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage for them so far this season. Head coach Duane Casey has done a nice job overseeing the offense of this young team — the Pistons lead in the league with 47.5% of their shots coming from the rim. But Detroit is only making 52.5% of these shots which is the lowest mark in the NBA. The Regression Gods should be making an appearance sooner than later for the Pistons and their shooting - and now they play a Wizards team that appears to have taken a step back on defense in the offseason. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. All three of the Pistons' games have finished Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing three straight Overs. Detroit was a reliable team on the road in the final few months of last season. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Washington has Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy and playing together for the first time since they acquired Porzingis last season. The Wizards brought in Will Barton and Monte Morris in the offseason — but the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope takes away one of their best defensive players from last season. Washington has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Washington returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They are just 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have struggled with their defensive play as they are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix (526) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (525). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (0-0) begins the new season coming off their 123-90 Game Seven loss at home to Dallas that ended that Western Conference Semifinals series. Dallas (0-0) looks to build off reaching the Western Conference Finals where they lost to Golden State in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a tumultuous offseason for Phoenix. Head coach Monty Williams benched DeAndre Ayton in that Game Seven loss to the Mavericks since he can be a liability on defense against four-out 3-point shooting teams. That relationship appears to still be less than ideal. The organization still decided to match the offer sheet extended to him by Indiana — and move I found reasonable. Then there is the controversy regarding owner Robert Sarver with him concluding to sell the team given his sketchy behavior — and that might serve to rally the team together since the Wicked Witch of the West is leaving. Most importantly, this was still a 64-win team that disappointed last year — and they have the opportunity to get this season going with positive energy while exacting a measure of revenge against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year. This group lost Javale McGree in the offseason (who signed with Dallas) but they get Dario Saric back after he was injured in the playoffs. While we should take preseason numbers with a grain of salt, it certainly is encouraging that Chris Paul averaged 10 assists-per-game in the exhibition season despite playing only 25 minutes per game. They last played a week ago in a 105-104 loss at home to Sacramento — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games last year when playing with three or more days of rest. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Dallas finished their exhibition season on Friday in a 115-101 win at Utah. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with three or more days of rest. This team will be tested early learning to live life without Jalen Brunson who signed with the New York Knicks in the offseason. Spencer Dinwiddie is being asked to step up as the second scorer behind Luka Doncic. They do lose Dinwiddie’s scoring punch off the best with him now in the starting rotation. Head coach Jason Kidd gets  Tim Hardaway, Jr. back who was injured in the playoffs last year — but the scoring chemistry of this team may be a work in progress. Kidd is missing some key rotation pieces tonight with Davis Bertrans out with a knee injury and Max Kleber questionable with an illness. This team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — their upset win in Game Seven against Phoenix was the lone exception during that final stretch of road games last season.

FINAL TAKE:  The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing the Suns in Phoenix. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Phoenix (526) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) tips off their season following a disappointing 33-49 season. Golden State (0-0) begins the defense of their NBA championship after beating the Boston Celtics in the finals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Warriors are probably a bit overvalued to begin the season. Head coach Steve Kerr conceded that his team is not in midseason shape yet — so the starters are not likely to play more than 30 minutes tonight. Golden State lost several of their bench players from last year with Gary Payton, Jr., Otto Porter, Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, and Damion Lee all moving on to new teams. The team also has the distraction of ring night as they celebrate last year’s title in front of their fans. While the Warriors will be celebrating their past, the Lakers should be very anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouths from last year’s embarrassment. LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have benefited from getting the summer off — so they should be rested and ready. The Lakers have a dominant 75-33 straight-up record when James and Davis are healthy and playing together. The addition of Patrick Beverley will help this team — and I have always thought that using Russell Westbrook off the bench to anchor the second unit was the best way to use his talents at this point in his career. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing at Golden State.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors crushed the Lakers the last time these two teams played on April 7th with a 128-112 win at home. Making an early statement is much more important to Los Angeles than it is for Golden State who will still be thinking about last season with the ring ceremony. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (528) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (527) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after a 104-94 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4-point underdog on Monday. Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after winning three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: I rewatched Game Five last night because I had to look away from the pain as to how bad the Celtics were playing. I did not pay close attention as to how Boston quickly rallied in 3rd quarter. And I studied what happened with Marcus Smart before the refs rewarded Jordan Poole's flop that helped cement Golden State's 4th quarter momentum swing. The refs injected themselves in the game, but Smart was flopping earlier and then whining for calls which is just not going to happen on the road (and by a player who lacks a title, despite being the reigning Defensive Player of the Year). I think Boston dug themselves too big a hole to win Game 5, but, wow, they still could have covered if they could have just been given the room to rebound before the refs started giving the Warriors 3-point swings (and Smart being on tilt did not help, of course). That Poole 3-pointer at the buzzer to end the third quarter certainly played a role in re-establishing the momentum for Golden State — and laid the foundation for Smart losing focus by doing his best Neymar impersonation by flopping around before Poole gets away with his flop. Very frustrating. That all said, Boston is close — and they deserve credit for making eight straight 3-pointers after missing their first 12 in the game to take a four-point lead late in the third quarter after such a nightmare start to the game. This team is resilient as they demonstrated throughout the playoffs which included avoiding elimination by winning on the road in Game Seven at Miami and in Game Six at Milwaukee (before winning that Game Seven). It is going to be a rabid crowd in Boston tonight with their last game at home this season — and that city knows how to inject themselves into an urgent playoff game. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — including seven of their eight games after a loss in this postseason. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Additionally, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 105 points in two straight games. The Celtics lost Game Four by a 107-97 score in their previous game at home — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 straight playoff games when trailing in a series. The Celtics' lack of urgency in handling and passing the basketball has been infuriating to watch at times. They have yet to learn that every playoff possession demands finer attention to detail — when Golden State turns the ball over, it is usually a function of their attempt to be aggressive (and is more forgivable). Too many of Boston’s 18 turnovers on Monday were a product of lackadaisicalness. But that was tied for most turnovers they had committed in their last nine games and tied for the second-most in their last 62 games. The Celtics should tighten things up in this department tonight — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after committing at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent in their last game. The Warriors only committed six turnovers in Game Five which was tied for the fewest turnovers they committed all season going back to Game Three of the regular when they also only had six turnovers at Sacramento on October 24th. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games when playing their second game in five days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the opportunity to close out the series. They are also just 1-3-1 in their last 5 games at Boston.

FINAL TAKE: I thought this was going to be a seven-game series before it started — and I still feel that way. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 opportunities to avenge two straight losses to their opponent. 10* NBA Golden State-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (528) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 40% of their shots on Friday after nailing 48.7% of their shots on their home court in Game Three. Jayson Tatum had an off night — while he scored 23 points and made 4 of his 8 shots from behind the arc, he was just 8 of 23 from the field overall. The Celtics got out-worked on the boards. After dominating the Warriors in Game Three by out-rebounding them by a 47 to 31 margin, they let the smaller team grab 55 boards to their 42 boards on Friday. Don’t blame Robert Williams III who pulled down 12 rebounds and had a +/- rating of +6 when he was on the court. The silver lining for Boston was that the Time Lord played 31:27 minutes in Game Four despite his nagging knee injury — and now he gets two days off to prepare for Game Five. Boston has been consistently reliable after subpar efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The extra day of rest should help as this series gets back to the two days off between games. Boston is the younger team and the extra day should help them be fresh again where they can use their energy to get back to controlling the boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest. The Celtics have been one of the best teams playing away from home all season — and in the postseason. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston is also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State got yet another superman effort from Stephen Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting on Friday. Can he keep carrying the Warriors in seemingly every game? As we predicted, head coach Steve Kerr gave Kevon Looney more court time on Friday to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Wednesday. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end — so Boston head coach Ime Udoka should have his team prepared to expose this liability. A lingering concern for the Warriors is that Draymond Green continues to provide little as well — he missed six of his seven shots for 2 points in Game Four after scoring only 2 points in Game Three. Green’s +/- rating on Friday was 0 — and the Warriors simply cannot win this series if they are not outscoring the Celtics when he is on the court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road by 10 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is comfortable playing the Warriors in their building as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road against them. And in their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home to their opponent, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make. But, first and foremost, Golden State needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. He should play better tonight and help his team get into a better offensive flow after dishing out three assists and scoring two points in Game Three. As a point forward, he generates 6.1 Assists-Per-Game with that mark rising to a 7.1 clip in the playoffs. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. The Celtics also took 24 shots from the free-throw line on Wednesday was seven more attempts than what Golden State got after the officials were on notice about the Green drama after Game Two. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 50 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 home games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home with the Total set in the 210s. Another concern for Boston tonight is the health of Robert Williams III. The Time Lord was great in Game Three with the Celtics outscoring the Warriors by 21 points with him on the court. But this will be the first time since Game Seven against Miami last round when Williams will be playing on just one day of rest. The knee injury that has slowed him down for months may give him troubles tonight — he was only able to play 14:42 minutes in that crucial game against the Heat on May 29th, almost two weeks ago.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA Friday Television Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-38) looks to rebound from their 107-88 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston accomplished what they needed in Game One by winning that game and seizing home-court advantage. Head coach Ime Udoka may have kept a few of his planned tricks in this series up his sleeve in Game Two. The Celtics may have been dealing with some fatigue after needing seven games to get by both Miami and Milwaukee in earlier rounds of the playoffs. The two full days off between games will help as this team returns home. Boston has covered the point spread after all 6 of their previous losses in the postseason -- and they have an averaging winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game in those six contests. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Boston needs to tighten things up in protecting the basketball after committing 18 turnovers in Game Three. The Celtics average 13 turnovers per game on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in the playoffs after committing at least 14 turnovers in their previous game this postseason. Stephen Curry scored 14 of his 29 points off turnovers in Game Two — so his scoring will probably go down if — and when — Boston turns the ball over fewer times tonight. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the playoffs after a straight-up win this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on the road in these playoffs after a straight-up win. The Warriors are 10-1 at home in the postseason — but they are just 3-4 on the road straight-up. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when playing for the second time in five days. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opportunity to take the Celtics with the narrative that Boston has played poorly on their home court with “just” a 5-4 record in these playoffs. They still have a 33-17 record with a +6.7 PPG at home this season. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games since March after a loss. And in their two games in the playoffs played at home after a loss, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Game Two of that series by 23 points before beating Miami in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals by 20 points. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to host the Warriors at TD Garden. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (520) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (519) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (65-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 120-108 upset loss at home to the Celtics in the opening game of this series. Boston (64-37) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State seemed a step slow and at times appeared fatigued on Thursday after having a week off from dispatching Dallas in five games. They only made 44.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting mark in their last six games. And in allowing the Celtics to make 50.6% of their shots, the Warriors played their worst game on defense in their last 13 contests. They should be back in basketball shape and speed for Game Two — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing their second game in five days. Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after a straight-up loss. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when trailing in a playoff series. And they are still 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Boston’s 50.6% shooting percentage was their best shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics thrived by them nailing 21 of their 41 shots (51.2%) from behind the arc. But Boston’s top two shooters — Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — only made 3 of their 13 combined shots from 3-point range. Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Daniel Theis combined to nail 18 of their 27 shots (67%) from 3-point range — just a tremendous accomplishment for a group where just Pritchard and Theis made more than 33.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season yet, tellingly, they averaged fewer 3-point attempts per game than the trio of Horford, Smart, and White in the regular season. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston got what they wanted in their trip to Golden State by seizing home court advantage — so their sense of urgency may not quite be the same as the Warriors. Golden State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games a home when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. And while the Celtics also upset the Warriors by a 110-88 score on March 16th at the Chase Center in their last meeting in the regular season despite being a 2-point road underdog, Golden State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games when motivated by revenge in two straight upset losses to their opponent. 20* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (520) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (517) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (65-33) has won five of their last six games after their 120-110 victory at home against Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite last Thursday to close out that series in five games. Boston (63-37) won their third game in their last four with their 100-96 victory on the road in Miami as a 3-point favorite to take that series in seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State holds all the cards for the opening game of the NBA Finals. They have been able to rest at home all week — and they have the benefit of their core players having already played in five NBA Finals with three championships since 2015. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the points spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Golden State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have won all nine of their games at home in the playoffs — and they are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 range. Head coach Steve Kerr’s team is also getting close to full strength again with reports that Gary Payton II. will be active tonight and Otto Porter, Jr. practicing yesterday. Boston is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 Game Ones of a new series.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State split their two regular-season games with the Celtics but lost the last meeting between these two teams by a 110-88 score as a 2-point underdog on March 16th. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss against their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series by forcing the decisive Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: It is telling that Boston has been identified as the favorite tonight despite the historical success of home teams in Game Sevens. The Celtics have the better numbers in most categories in this series: Offensive Efficiency, assist percentage, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, fast break points, made 3-pointers, and free throw attempts. The only areas where the Heat have the edge over the Celtics are in points off turnovers, second-chance points, and points in the paint. Boston went into the locker room trailing by a 48-46 score — and then somehow Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to take only seven shots from the field in the second half in the 8-point loss. I expect that to be corrected by this duo playing in their sixth Eastern Conference Finals series in their young careers. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread after all five of their losses in the postseason. They have an average margin of victory in the playoffs after a loss by +12.1 Points-Per-Game — and they beat Miami by 20 and 25 points after their two previous losses to them in this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. Interestingly, while the Celtics have just a 5-4 record at home in the playoffs, they have a 6-2 straight-up record on the road including two victories in Miami in this series. Boston is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when favored. Miami got a surprising performance from Jimmy Butler on Friday as he scored 47 points while converting 16 of 29 shots from the field and nailing four 3-pointers (not really his game). This was surprising not because I have any doubts about Butler’s talents but because he seemed to be so negatively impacted by the knee inflammation that kept him out of the second half in Game Three. Butler scored only 19 points on 7 of 32 shooting in Games Four and Five combined. I just remain skeptical that Butler can put two superhuman performances in a row on that bum knee — especially when he played 45:57 minutes on Friday. Kyle Lowry has also been slowed with his hamstring but stepped up to score 18 points on Friday after scoring only 3 points on 1 of 12 shooting in Games Four and Five. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J. Tucker have also been slowed by injuries in this series. And then there is Tyler Herro who has not played since injuring his groin in Game Three. The Heat lose -2.8 points per 100 possessions with Herro on the court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games playing without him. Even if he tries to take the court tonight, his effectiveness remains very much in doubt considering his injury usually puts NBA players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. I don’t the Heat — I am just skeptical that they can come close to replicating the performance in Game Six given their injury situation. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 102-82 loss as a 7-point underdog on Monday. Boston (61-36) has won four of their last six games while evening this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami shot only 33.3% from the field in Game 4 which was the worst shooting percentage for them all season. They should shoot better returning back home where they make 47.6% of their shots. The Heat have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on their home court after not scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Heat have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 games at home as an underdog, they have covered the point spread 4 times. Miami has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Boston played their best defensive game in Game Four by holding the Heat to 39.7% shooting. But the Celtics are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. And while Boston has only attempted 70 and 78 shots from the field in Games Three and Four, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not attempting more than 80 shots in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries play a big role tonight for both teams. After not playing on Monday, Marcus Smart remains questionable with an ankle injury. Robert Williams III is questionable with the nagging knee injury he has been dealing with throughout the postseason. Miami has five players listed as questionable including Kyle Lowry. But Jimmy Butler is not even on the injury list after dealing with knee inflammation in Game Three on Saturday. Only Tyler Herro on the Heat injury report did not play in Game Four so I do expect most of these players to take the court tonight. Miami has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (568) minus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (567) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after their 109-100 upset loss as a 3-point favorite at home against the Warriors on Sunday. Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Jason Kidd is not likely to let his team give up tonight just because they fell behind 3-0 in this series. Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 24 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 19 of these contests. The Mavericks got outrebounded by a 47 to 33 margin in Game Three — and they have been outrebounded by at least 13 boards in each game in this series. Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being outrebounded by five or more boards in three straight games. The Mavericks have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored. I was wrong about Dallas winning and covering in Game Three — but I still claim that we should not underestimate this team. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Luka Doncic should lead his team to the victory tonight — especially if he can get some help from his teammates. Doncic made 11 of his 23 shots on Sunday en route to his 40-point night. His teammates only made 19 of their 52 shot attempts for a 36.5% clip. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Golden State-Dallas TNT Special with the Dallas Mavericks (568) minus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (566) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (565) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston (60-36) looks to rebound from their 109-103 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Miami (63-33) has won four of their last five games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston started slowly in Game Three as they trailed by as many as 26 points in the second quarter before rallying to make it a game in the second half. After losing home-court advantage, they should play better tonight. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Celtics need to tighten things up by doing a better job of protecting the basketball after committing 23 turnovers. The Heat only turned the ball over eight times giving them a big +15 edge in the turnover department. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent in their last game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +10 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog in the playoffs — and the Celtics are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries are central to the storyline tonight. The Heat will be without Tyler Herro tonight after he injured his groin on Saturday. Jimmy Butler claims he will play after missing the second half of Game Three with his nagging knee injury — but he may not be 100%. Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III are both listed as questionable — but Smart did play after twisting his ankle in Game Three and head coach Ime Udoka says Williams III is improving. Most importantly, Jayson Tatum is listed as probable after injuring his shoulder on Saturday. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight playoff games when trailing in the series. 20* NBA Miami-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (566) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-37) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 126-117 loss on the road against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State (63-32) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas was in reach to pull the upset in Game Two — they entered the fourth quarter trailing by two points and remained within four points with under four minutes to go before getting outscored by a 19-14 margin the rest of the way. The Mavericks allowed the Warriors to nail 56.1% of their shots (14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc) which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Dallas against the Mavericks. And in Dallas’ last 28 games when given the opportunity for same-season revenge, they have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals (561). THE SITUATION: Miami (62-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 127-102 upset loss as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (60-35) has won three of their last four games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After taking Game One by 11 points, Miami was flat on Thursday. They only made 44.2% of their shots which was was lowest mark in their last five games. They only made 10 of their 34% (29%) shots from 3-point range. And in allowing the Celtics to make 52.1% of their shots, they played their worst defensive game in their last four contests. Head coach Erik Spoelstra will have his team ready to play tonight. The Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit upset loss. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. Miami is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Boston was on fire in Game Two from behind the arc as they made 20 of their 40 (50%) shots from behind the arc. Their 51.2% field goal percentage was tied their best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But the Celtics are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 opportunities to host the Heat in Boston.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 10* NBA Miami-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (647) plays the points versus the Golden State Warriors (648) in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-36) look to rebound from their 112-87 loss on the road to the Warriors in the opening game of this series as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State (62-32) has won four of their last five games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas was flat on Wednesday. They started slow by finishing the first quarter trailing by a 28-18 score — and it was pretty much downhill from there. The Mavericks underachieved on both ends of the court. They allowed Golden State to nail 56.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in the last six games. Their 36.0% shooting percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last 30 games. They only made 11 of 48 (23%) of their shots from behind the arc and ended the game with an Offensive Rating of 90.6. Dallas should shoot the basketball better tonight. They have made 45.1% of their shots in the postseason with a 37% clip from behind the arc even after Wednesday’s disappointing effort. The Mavericks have generated an Offensive Rating of 112.7 in these playoffs. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. On the road, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. Golden State enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games with the 56.1% clip on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Warriors have a high-ceiling when they are playing at their best — but consistency has been a problem for them as they have tended to get too lackadaisical in protecting the basketball. They ranked 13th of the sixteen playoffs teams after the first two rounds with a 15.8% turnover percentage. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games when favored. And in their last 8 playoff games when leading in the series, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against them in Golden State. And in their last 27 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden TNT Special with the Dallas Mavericks (647) plays the points versus the Golden State Warriors (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (543) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (544) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-35) lost their fourth game in their last seven contests with a 118-107 loss on the road against the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Miami (62-32) has won three in a row and seven of their last nine while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston started fast on Tuesday by seizing a 62-54 halftime lead — but playing undermanned and on short rest finally caught up with them as they got outscored by a 39-14 margin in the third quarter. The Celtics allowed the Heat to nail 48.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Boston missed their quarterback on defense — and the 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year — in Marcus Smart who missed the game with a foot injury. The Celtics were also without Al Horford due to COVID protocols — and he is doubtful tonight to clear quarantine. Not having Horford tonight does not help — but head coach Ime Udoka did get over 28 good minutes from Robert Williams III with the Time Lord scoring 18 points and adding 9 rebounds. Williams III did not play much in the closing games of the previous series with Milwaukee with his nagging knee injury. Williams III is largely responsible for the Celtics’ dramatic improvement on defense midseason which eventually elevated them to the best Defensive Rating in the NBA. They have held six of their last eight opponents to no better than 43.5% shooting. Boston should play better tonight in a decisive Game Two which would give them home-court advantage if they can steal the game. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Boston has been a great road team this season that is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games away from home — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games as an underdog. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has nailed at least 48.3% of their shots in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has some injury issues coming into play for tonight’s game. Kyle Lowry remains out with a hamstring injury — and his absence might leave the team without a reliable complementary scorer to Jimmy Butler. P.J. Tucker is dealing with an ankle but he is listed as probable. But a looming problem is the hamstring injuries to guards Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. These two are playing more since the playoff series with Philadelphia because Duncan Robinson is a liability on defense. Both played over 30 minutes on Tuesday — and Robinson did not get on the court.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have won the last two meetings between these two teams going back to the regular season — but the Celtics have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 52 games when playing with double-revenge. Boston has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in Miami against the Heat. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (543) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (540) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (539) in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (61-32) won their third game in their last four contests after closing out their six-game series with Memphis with their 110-96 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Dallas (60-35) won their fourth game in their last five contests with their 123-90 upset victory in Phoenix as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State beat the Grizzlies by 14 points on Friday despite making only 39.4% of their shots from the field in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. They should play shoot better tonight as they covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home after a double-digit victory. And while the Warriors have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Golden State’s strong defense was on display in Game Six as they held the Grizzlies to just 35.4% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games at home after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. The extra days off can only help this veteran team — they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with at least three days of rest. On their home court, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 opening games to a new playoff series when they are playing at home but not a double-digit favorite. They do expect to have Otto Porter, Jr. back for this series after being out with a foot injury — so that helps the bench. Dallas enters this series with two fewer days of rest having played on Sunday — and they have played two more games in the postseason with 13 games already under their belts. The Mavericks nailed 56.8% of their shots in their blowout win at Phoenix which was the best shooting effort in their last 64 games. And by holding the Suns to just 37.9% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last eight contests. Their 33-point win in Game Seven came on the heels of their 113-86 upset win at home against Phoenix in Game Six. An emotional letdown now is likely after this team pulled themselves off the brink of elimination twice in a row. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. In both those games, Dallas raced out to big halftime leads of 15 and 30 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after taking double-digit halftime leads in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas did win three of the four games between these teams in the regular season series including the most recent two games against the Warriors. These two teams last played on March 3rd when the Mavericks won by a 122-113 score as a 2-point favorite at home — but Golden State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when avenging a loss on the road. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden State TNT Special with the Golden State Warriors (540) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (536) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (535) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (61-32) has won six of their last eight games after their 99-90 upset win at Philadelphia as a 2-point underdog on Thursday that ended that series in six games. Boston (59-34) beat Milwaukee by a 109-81 score as a 5-point favorite on Sunday to take that series in seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami will be rested and ready on their home court for this opening contest. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest — including eleven of these last fifteen situations. The Heat should build off the momentum of their series win against the 76ers as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset victory on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Miami returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 63 playoff games when they were the favorite under head coach Erik Spoelstra, they have covered the point spread 43 times. The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry who remains out is a hamstring injury — but the Celtics may not have Marcus Smart who is listed as questionable with a sprained foot. Smart missed a game in the last round against the Bucks — head coach Ime Udoka may err on the side of caution by not playing him to give him two more days of rest and recovery. Boston got the short end of the stick when compared to Dallas who also played on Sunday but get an extra day before starting their series with Golden State. The Celtics have the difficult challenge to travel to Miami on a 48-hour turnaround to begin this series. They did beat Milwaukee by decisive 13 and 18 point margins in the final two games of that series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after two double-digit victories in a row. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Finals going back to the Bubble when they lost to the Heat.

FINAL TAKE: Boston won the three-game regular-season series between these teams — but they got upset at home against Miami by a 106-98 score in the most recent meeting between these teams on March 30th as a 5-point favorite. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (536) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (528) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (527) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (71-23) looks to rebound from their 113-86 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 2-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (59-35) has won three of the last four games in this series to force a decisive Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix was flat in Game Six after taking a 3-1 lead in this series with a 30-point victory in Game Five. They only made 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc which was the worst shooting mark in their last 14 games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a double-digit upset loss. And in their last 7 games when favored, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Dallas played their best game on defense in their last seven contests by holding Phoenix to 39.7% shooting. And their 45.5% shooting percentage on Thursday was the best shooting mark in their last four contests. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset victory by double-digits as a home underdog. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. They travel back to Phoenix where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games there against the Suns.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road to their opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games when avenging a loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Dallas-Phoenix TNT Special with the Phoenix Suns (528) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (524) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (523) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (58-34) forced a decisive seventh game in this series with their 108-95 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (58-35) has lost two of the last three games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston should build off their momentum this afternoon back on their home court. They are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Boston has only played 7 games this season on their home court with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range — and they covered the point spread 5 times. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the playoffs as a favorite. Milwaukee lost at home by double-digits despite being favored for just the fifth time this season on Friday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. The Bucks are winning the rebounding battle in this series after pulling down 49 boards in Game 6 while the Celtics had 42 boards. Milwaukee has outrebounded Boston by at least six rebounds in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after outrebounding their last four opponents by at least five rebounds. The Celtics, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after getting outrebounded by at least five rebounds in five straight games. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on the road as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The obstacles simply appear to be too much for the defending NBA champions. The team misses Khris Middleton — and Giannis Antetokounmpo is being asked to carry this team with none of his teammates stepping up to offer reliable help (especially on offense). The Bucks have not made more than 43.5% of their shots in four straight games. Boston, on the other hand, has posted an Offensive Rating of 113 or better in five of their last six games after their flat effort in Game One. The Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against Milwaukee — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when hosting the Bucks. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (524) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (517) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (60-32) looks to rebound from their 134-95 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Memphis (62-31) snapped a two-game losing streak in the win to pull within 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State might have the highest ceiling in the entire league regarding how dominant they can play. Head coach Steve Kerr wants his team to play at a frenetic pace with aggressive defense and flashy passes because this style facilitates a tenor where — if and when they nail a few 3s in a row — the result is a momentum swing that serves as a knockout punch. That is exactly what happened in Game Three when they blasted the Grizzlies by a 142-112 score. But the flip side of this style is that they can get too careless and carefree in their approach — and that is what happened on Wednesday. Being too aggressive can be dangerous against this Memphis team that thrives when creating extra scoring possessions by forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. The message from Kerr for tonight’s game will likely be to just rein in the sloppiness with the basketball — and work harder. Golden State committed 14 turnovers in the first half which played a big role in them trailing at halftime by a 77-50 score. But the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after trailing by 20 or more points at halftime. And while their 22 turnovers were 13 more than what Memphis committed, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after losing the turnover battle by at least 10. The Grizzlies held the rebounding advantage by a 55-37 margin — but Golden State has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. Golden State should play better on defense as well after allowing the Grizzlies to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Warriors are holding Memphis to just a 50.8% effective field goal percentage while they are generating a 54.3% effective field goal percentage. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they are 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Memphis may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after forcing at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent in their last game. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis managed to prove they are more than just Ja Morant on Wednesday — but, of course, it will be difficult for them to remain competitive in this series without him. They did post a 20-5 record in the regular season in their 25 games when he was injured — but only 12 of those games were against teams that made the playoffs. Golden State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION:  Boston (57-34) has lost two of their last three games in this series after a 110-107 upset loss at home to the Bucks on Wednesday. Milwaukee (58-34) took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston lost a heartbreaker on Wednesday — they had a six-point lead with just over two minutes to go on their home court. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a crucial second free throw late — but Bobby Portis pulled down the offensive rebound and scored the go-ahead winning basket. The Celtics still had a chance to score — but then Jrue Holiday made two crucial blocks to ice the game for the defending NBA champions. Excruciating for this Boston team — but this is a veteran group despite the young ages of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who already have tons of playoff and Game Seven experiences. They should be resilient and respond tonight. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston did shoot 51.2% from the field on Wednesday — but they only made 10 of their 31 shots (32%) from behind the arc so they are not coming off an outlier effort from distance. Back on the road, they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a dog overall. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home after a straight-up win. Milwaukee outrebounded the Celtics by a 49-36 margin which was the third-straight game where they won the rebounding battle in this series by at least six boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outrebounded by their last three opponents by at least five boards. The Bucks got another superhuman performance from Antetokounmpo in Game Five as he scored 40 points on 16 of 27 shooting. But he missed Khris Middleton who plays such a crucial role in the offensive attack for this team. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Milwaukee is just 14-14 in their last 28 games without Middleton — and they are just 12-15-1 ATS in those contests. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their45 games on their home court this season. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by no more than six points. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Boston may get Robert Williams III back for this game which will help their defensive efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston will be confident tonight — they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Bucks and they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Underdog of the Year is on the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (58-35) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing on the road to the Suns by a 110-80 score as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (71-22) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas could not hit the side of a barn on Tuesday as they made just 38.0% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 27 games. The Mavericks only hit 8 of their 32 shots from behind the arc. They should shoot much better from behind the arc back at home after a subpar 25% shooting clip from 3-point range. Dallas has made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home in the playoffs. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. Back at home, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog — an they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix posted a Defensive Rating of 85.1 on Tuesday in their best defensive effort of the season. The Mavericks’ 38.0% field goal percentage was the Suns’ lowest opponent’s shooting mark in their last 10 games. But Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Golden State was flat after winning the third game in their series with a game still in hand back on their home court — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix has a Chris Paul problem with the point guard experiencing his third straight subpar game. He is scoring only 8 Points-Per-Game in the last three games while committing 13 turnovers. Even in the blowout win in Game Five, the Suns only outscored the Mavs by +8 points when he was on the court. Blame Jalen Brunson. Usually it is Paul who bullies and out-physicals his counterparts at guard. Brunson is a pit bull who is making life very difficult for Paul while making him exert tons of energy. Now Phoenix goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. The Suns are nailing 39.4% of their shots from behind the arc in the playoffs when playing at home — but they are making just 32.5% of their shots from distance on the road in this postseason.

FINAL TAKE: Luka Doncic is going to be tough to eliminate — and the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the  Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (510) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (509) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. Memphis (61-31) has lost the last two games in this series after their 101-98 loss on the road to the Warriors on Monday. Golden State (60-31) took a 3-1 lead in this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Despite not having Ja Morant in Game Four, Memphis remains resilient by being in control for most of the contest before finally surrendering the lead with two minutes left to go. It was a heartbreaking loss for this team that will likely be without Morant for the rest of the postseason. But on the other hand, the Grizzlies posted a 20-5 record during the regular season playing without an injured Morant. Tyus Jones was very effective in the starting lineup replacing Morant in those 25 games. He scored 12.7 Points-Per-Game while dishing out 6.6 Assists-Per-Game and adding 3.2 Rebounds-Per-Game in those games. It is tough to claim that Memphis is actually better when playing without Morant. But their Offensive Efficiency in those 25 games was 117.8 which compares favorably to their Offensive Rating of 114.3 overall. It is fair to say that the Grizzlies perhaps improve on the other end of the court when playing without Morant as defense is the least effective part of his game right now. Memphis was sixth in the league in the regular season by allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions — but they improved that mark by giving up just 104.0 points per 100 possessions in the 25 games played without Morant. And despite the close loss to the Warriors on Monday, the Grizzlies can certainly play better tonight even without Morant. They only made 9 of their 26 shots (26%) of their shots from behind the arc en route to a 41% field goal percentage. But Memphis worked hard on defense as they held Golden State to just a 40% shooting clip. The Grizzlies’ season may end tonight — but they should give offer a good fight. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. They rerun home where they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 46 games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread. And while they have only covered the pint spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. The Warriors are only making 32.6% of their shots from behind the arc in this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And in their last 11 games when up 3-1 in the series, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Grizzlies (510) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (504) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (503) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (70-22) is on a two-game losing streak in this series after their 111-103 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (58-34) evened the series at 2-2 with their two-game sweep in Games Three and Four on their home court.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix struggled to score baskets in Dallas — but now they return home where they scored 121 and 129 points in the first two games of this series. Only having Chris Paul play for 23 minutes on Sunday before he fouled out did not help their cause. But the Suns have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games after a point spread loss. Back on their home court, Phoenix has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 44 shots from behind the arc on Sunday — and that 45% clip from 3-point range generated 33 points from distance than the nine 3-pointers made by the Suns. But the Mavericks made only 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Dorrian Finney-Smith had a career game by scoring 24 points in Game Four — all from 3-point land where he nailed 8 of his 12 shots. I am not expecting history to repeat itself for Finney-Smith on the road. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games against the Suns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Phoenix.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road where they were favored. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (504) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-32) lost both games on the road against the 76ers after a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (57-35) has evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Sixers to make 54.4% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst defensive effort in their last 30 games. To compound matters, the Heat continue to struggle with their 3-point shooting. After making only 7 of 30 shots from behind the arc in Game Three, Miami converted on just 7 of their 35 shots from downtown. It’s tough to give too much credit to the Philly defense for this ineffectiveness either — the Heat missed 19 of their 24 shots from 3-point range that were uncontested or lightly contested shots. I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance for Miami tonight after making only 21.5% of their shots from behind the arc in the two games in Philadelphia. Back at home, the Heat convert 37.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Granted, Duncan Robinson is not playing significant minutes in this series since he will be a defensive liability against James Harden -- and that removes one of the best 3-point shooters in the Miami rotation. But the other Heat players should see more of their 3-pointers drop moving forward and back at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games on the road. Back at home, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 playoff games when favored. Philadelphia’s 54.4% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort in this series. They nailed 16 of their 33 (48%) of their shots from behind the arc. Joel Embiid made one of those 3-pointers — it was a bank shot from the top of the arc. Pretty fortunate after not even attempting a 3-pointer in Game Three. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He had missed nine straight 3-pointers going into Sunday with his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. With Embiid not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable to play off him when he drifts to the perimeter. Harden played his best game in the postseason with 31 points on 8 of 18 shooting while nailing 6 of his 10 shots from downtown. I am not a believer — heck, I have never been a big believer in Harden in the playoffs when the refs call fewer fouls and the pressure is higher — he looks like he is moving in slow motion. His good game on Sunday might have enabled some bad habits tonight. As it is, the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. Now they go back on the road where they made just 14 of their 64 (21.9%) of their 3-pointers. Having a healthy Embiid back helps Philly’s balance on offense — but they are still facing a Heat team that holds their guests to just 33.7% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Miami to play the Heat. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Miami has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is on the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (581) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-33) looks to bounce back from their 103-101 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (57-23) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston only made 36.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the fourth-lowest shooting effort of the season for them. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They stay on the road where they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games — and they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee may have the lead in this series but there are cracks in the armor. Giannis Antetokounmpo carried the team in Game Three with 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. This team misses Khris Middleton and the 20.1 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Bucks were third in the NBA in the regular season by scoring 1.15 Points-Per-Possession — but that scoring efficiency has dropped to a 1.0 PPG clip in this series. They are making only 27.9% of their 3-pointers. Jrue Holiday is being asked to pick up the slack from the absence of Middleton — an exile he scored 25 points on Saturday, he took 30 shots from the field and made just 11 of them. He is making only 37.1% of his shots in this series. Since 2020-21, Milwaukee is 13-13 in the 26 games they have played without Middleton — and they are 11-15 ATS in those contests. Their Offensive Efficiency drops from 117.3 points per 100 possessions when Middleton is on the court to 113.4 points per 100 possessions when he is not playing. These are ominous signs for a team that is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bucks — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Milwaukee against the Bucks. 10* NBA Boston-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (581) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-31) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 99-79 upset loss on the road against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-35) made this a 2-1 series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami only made 35.1% of their shots in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last 72 games. The Heat appeared out-of-synch with the surprise decision by the Sixers that Joel Embiid was ready to take the court again after passing the concussion protocol (and despite his orbital injury that had him wearing a protective mask). But it was more than just the return of Embiid — Miami could not hit the side of a barn on Friday. They missed 8 of their 10 uncontested shots. They only converted on 29.8% of their jump shots despite the deeper metrics indicating their expected field goal percentage was 48%. The Heat simply need to execute better tonight — better passing and better shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits despite being a road favorite. They stay on the road where they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games as a dog. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia plays their best defensive game of the season by holding the Heat to just 35.1% shooting. The Sixers nailed 16 of their 33 shots from behind the arc for a 48.5% shooting clip. But the troubling aspect for Philadelphia is that they only scored 99 points despite enjoying so much success from distance. The 76ers’ posted only a 111 Offensive Rating in Game Three — and their efficiency actually dropped to scoring 107 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the court. Embiid scored a respectable 18 points but he did not attempt a 3-point attempt. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He has missed nine straight 3-pointers — and his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. If Embiid is not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers' offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable playing off him when he drifts to the perimeter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after losing two of their last three games. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 200 to 209.5.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points on the road. 25* NBA Sunday Night Special Feature with the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (577) minus the point(s) versus the Dallas (578) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (70-21) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 103-94 loss as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (57-34) still trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix only shot 44.7% from the field in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Suns had made at least 50% of their shots in eight straight games before Friday. They should shoot closer to their 52.6% field goal postseason percentage this afternoon. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Suns have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, Phoenix has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Dallas played their best defense of the series on Friday — but while they ranked sixth in the league with their Defensive Efficiency Rating under first-year head coach Jason Kidd, they fell to 14th in Defensive Efficiency in the second half of the season. The Mavericks also have rebounding liability in this series after getting outrebounded by a 45 to 36 margin in Game Three. Dallas has been outrebounded in four straight games by at least nine boards — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after getting outrebounded by at least five rebounds in three straight games. Luka Doncic had a monster game on Friday by scoring 26 points and adding 13 rebounds and dishing out 9 assists. But his teammates only converted 29 of their 65 shots from the field for a 44.6% shooting percentage.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 meetings with the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against them in Dallas. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Phoenix-Dallas ESPN Special with the Phoenix Suns (577) minus the point(s) versus the Dallas (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (58-31) looks to rebound from their 106-101 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (61-29) evened the series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was flat after seizing home-court advantage in the opening game of this series despite not playing with the suspended Draymond Green in the second half in Game One. The Warriors made only 42.1% of their shots from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last eight games. They missed 31 of their 38 shots from behind the arc for a low 18% field goal percentage from 3-point range. Back at home, Golden State should play much better. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games after a straight-up loss. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have a 34-10 record on their home court — and their numbers probably betray how good they will perform at home moving forward since the team was rarely at full strength with the Big Three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson playing together again. And then there is the new emerging “Death Lineup” (PTSD?) which includes All-Star Andrew Wiggins and rising star Jordan Poole. That group overwhelmed Denver in the first two games of the Western Conference Quarterfinals when the Warriors outscored the Nuggets by an average of 18 PPG while scoring 124.5 Points-Per-Game on 53.6% shooting from the field in both games. Golden State was not as prolific on their home court in Game Five of that series in a 102-98 victory — but let’s give them a pass in that game since they were in control of the series (and did still win the game). The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Memphis risks being a bit rusty in this game after the mid-series hiatus since Tuesday to accommodate the television schedule moving forward. They are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games. And while this is just their fourth game in the last 11 days, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games when playing not more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis played their best game on defense by holding the Warriors to a 42.1% shooting percentage in their last five games. But they only made 39.6% of their own shots — and it could have been worse if it was not for Ja Morant who put his team on his back by scoring 47 points while adding 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Morant nailed 15 of his 31 shots from the field — but his teammates only made 21 of 60 shots for a troubling 35% shooting percentage. The Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks tonight after he got suspended for his hard foul on Gary Payton, Jr. and elbow injury that will keep him out indefinitely. Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Golden State against the Warriors.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-34) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 129-109 loss on the road to the Suns as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (70-20) has won four straight games and five of their last six.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS (OR AS A PICK ‘EM): Dallas looked outmatched in their two games in Phoenix — but Luka Doncic had his way in both games. Doncic has scored 80 points in this series after posting 45 points on Wednesday — and he added 12 rebounds and 8 assists in the losing effort. The Mavericks have made 41% of their shots from 3-point land in each of the first two games of this series — but head coach Jason Kidd’s team made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc in their six-game series with Utah last round. Dallas should play their best game of the series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points on the road. Dallas allowed the Suns to nail 64.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Phoenix shot 50.5% from the field in Game One of this series as well — but the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots in their last two games. Dallas returns home for the first time since April 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Mavs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix posted the seventh best field goal percentage in the history of the NBA playoffs with their 64.5% shooting clip on Wednesday — and it was their best shooting effort of the season. I do expect an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Suns made 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home during the regular season —  but that mark drops to a 35.4% clip when playing on the road. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win at home. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games and six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (534) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (533) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (60-29) looks to rebound from their 117-116 loss at home to the Warriors as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (58-30) has won ten of their last eleven games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis blew a golden opportunity to take a 1-0 lead in this series after Draymond Green got ejected just before halftime for a dubious flagrant-two foul. The veteran Warriors rallied around each other after the controversial call was made. And now the Grizzlies will be undermanned for this contest with Steven Adams and Killian Tillie out for tonight — and Desmond Bane is questionable with a back injury. But depth is one of the strengths of this team with their bench ranking fifth in the NBA by scoring 38.9 Points-Per-Game. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. Memphis remains a bit underappreciated still despite earning the second seed in the Western Conference and posting a 20-5 record despite playing without their best player in Ja Morant when he went down with an injury. This is a deep team loaded with young talent — and they have a reliable Plan B and C if their shots are not falling. The Grizzlies led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots — and they pulled down 16 offensive rebounds on Sunday. They were fourth in the league by forcing turnovers in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of concern for the Warriors as their turnover rate of 15.0% during the regular season was the second-worst in the NBA. Golden State committed 18 turnovers in Game One. Memphis joined Phoenix as the only two teams in the league to rank in the top six in both Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. They allowed the Warriors to make 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. They host this game where they have a 32-13 record — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games as a home dog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They are also 5-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread loss. And while the Warriors have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors start this game on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in Memphis against the Grizzlies. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Grizzlies (534) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (532) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (531) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (55-32) looks to rebound from their 55-32 upset loss at home to the Bucks as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (56-32) took a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Many observers are overreacting to the Celtics' 12-point loss on Sunday by suggesting that the oddsmakers and much of the betting public overreacted to their four-game sweep of the Brooklyn Nets last round. Settle down, Sparky. Three things can be true at once: the Nets were overrated, the Celtics are very good, and that is not a shocking development that the reigning NBA champions won a playoff game (many of these same observers made it a daily habit to pretend they would be better basketball coaches than Mike Budenholzer). Boston had been on a five-game winning streak before the loss — and they shot a season-low 33.3% from the field on Sunday. The Celtics have still won 30 of their last 37 games. They should shoot much better tonight. Boston has covered the point spread 9 straight games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss. Marcus Smart is questionable tonight as he deals with a stinger in his shoulder and a more concerning quad injury he suffered later in Game One — his potential absence keeps me from upgrading this play to a 25* rating. But even without Smart tonight, Boston should play much better at home — they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the playoffs when favored. Milwaukee may be due for a letdown after outscoring their last four opponents by +20.5 Points-Per-Game. This recent run came after the injury to Khris Middleton which triggered a sense of urgency for this team — but this is the first game they are playing since that setback when they can let up a bit having retaken home-court advantage. Remember — they were sluggish in the first two games against Chicago before losing Middleton. As it is, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win as an underdog. And while they have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. By holding the Celtics to 33.3% shooting, they played their best game on defense in their last five contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 35% of their shots. Give Budenholzer credit for shifting the early moment in Game One to his side by installing a full-court press that got the Celtics out of their rhythm and get into their half-court offense too late in the shot clock. That is something that Boston head coach Ime Udoka should fix for Game Two. But the Celtics played good defense against the Bucks who only made 41.1% of their shots en route to a mere 101 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo turned the ball over five times. Jrue Holiday made some 3s — but he missed 10 of his 15 shots from inside the arc. Milwaukee has outrebounded their last four opponents by at least six boards after enjoying a 54-48 edge on Sunday against the Celtics. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after outrebounding their last four opponents by at least five boards. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I would feel worse about the potential loss of Smart if the Bucks had a healthy Middleton — but Jayson Tatum can shift over to defend Holiday with Robert Williams III roaming to offer help with Al Horford on Antetokounmpo. Boston has still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Bucks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last opportunities to host Milwaukee. 20* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (532) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (524) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (523) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (68-30) has won three of their last four games after their 115-109 victory at New Orleans as a 3-point favorite to end that series in six games on Thursday. Dallas (56-32) has won four of their last five games with their 98-96 upset win at Utah as a 1-point underdog to end that series in six games on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix is back to full strength with Devin Booker’s surprise return to the court in Game Six on Thursday. The Suns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after a win on the road. Phoenix did allow the Pelicans to nail 50% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns overcame that shooting effort by making 60% of their own shots from the field which was the fifth straight games where they shot at least 50%. Phoenix has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four straight contests. Back on their home court, the Suns have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 34 home games when favored by six points or less. Phoenix has covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Dallas had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory on the road by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And while the Mavericks have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has won nine straight games against the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 meetings against them. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to host Dallas in Phoenix. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (524) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-30) has won four of their last five games after beating Atlanta by a 97-94 score as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (57-30) has won six of their last eight games with their 132-97 victory at Toronto as a 1.5-point favorite on Thursday to end that series in six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has a long injury list for this game which is keeping me from upgrading this play to a 25* rating. Kyle Lowry remains out with a hamstring strain. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris, and Caleb Martin are all questionable with various ailments. The update this afternoon is that Butler and Herro are expected to play with the other players still a game-time decision. The Heat have depth — and Bam Adebayo — so they should be fine tonight. Adebayo should have a big game against a 76ers team that is without Joel Embiid as he recovers from a concussion. Miami has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Heat have played three straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after playing an Under in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games, Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in the playoffs when favored. And in their last 6 opening games to a new playoff series, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The 76ers come off one of their best games of the season. They made 58.0% of their shots in their series-clinching victory against the Hawks which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. They held Atlanta to just 39.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 18 contests. But the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road by 20 or more points. Without Embiid, head coach Doc Rivers has the choice of some less than enviable options to play at center. Matisse Thybulle is not a threat on the offensive end of the court which will allow the Heat to play off him and offer help to James Harden. Georges Niang did not have a good series against the Raptors. And while Rivers could go small by playing Paul Reed at the five, that would leave Philly very vulnerable against Adebayo. As it is, the 76ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Sixers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Miami against the Heat. And while the 76ers upset the Heat in their last meeting by a 113-106 score as an 8-point underdog on March 21st, Miami has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points. 20* NBA Philadelphia-Miami TNT Special with the Miami Heat (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (516) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (515) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (60-28) has won four of their last five games after beating Minnesota on the road by a 114-106 score as a 1.5-point favorite to end that series in six games on Friday. Golden State (57-30) has won nine of their last ten games with their 102-98 victory against Denver as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: I think Memphis enters this series a bit underappreciated still despite earning the second seed in the Western Conference and posting a 20-5 record despite playing without their best player in Ja Morant when he went down with an injury. This is a deep team loaded with young talent — and they have a reliable Plan B and C if their shots are not falling. The Grizzlies led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots. They were fourth in the league by forcing turnovers in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of concern for the Warriors as their turnover rate of 15.0% during the regular season was the second-worst in the NBA. The flip side of when Stephen Curry gets its going is that he can be loose with the basketball. Memphis’ bench scored 38.9 Points-Per-Game during the regular season, the fifth-best mark. They joined Phoenix as the only two teams in the league to rank in the top six in both Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. They are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. They host this game where they have a 32-12 record — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a home dog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They are also 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread win. The Warriors start this game on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Memphis against the Grizzlies. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Memphis Grizzlies (516) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (55-31) is on a five-game winning streak after completing their four-game sweep against Brooklyn with a 116-112 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Milwaukee (55-32) has won seven of their last nine games after dispatching Chicago in five games with their 116-100 victory against the Bulls as a 12.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bucks tend to start slow in a new playoff series under head coach Mike Budenholzer. They have finished below the oddsmaker’s team total listed for them in nine of their last 10 Game Ones in the playoffs. They have underachieved their expected field goal percentage in those games by an average of 5 percentage points. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 Game Ones when playing on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest since their last game. While the Bucks were able to take their game to another level against the Bulls without Khris Middleton, they will miss their second-leading scorer against the Celtics. The Milwaukee halfcourt offense can get stagnant when playing without Middleton — and Budenholzer has a problem in the minutes in this series when he needs to spell either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jrue Holiday and not have them on the court together. The Bucks open this series on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games as an underdog overall — and they are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 playoff games as an underdog. Boston only made 47.2% of their shots in Game Four against the Nets which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a division rival. And in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest, they are 3-1-1 ATS. Boston hosts this game where they are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against the Bucks — including 4 straight point spread covers when playing at home. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINT(S): Memphis only made 41.5% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — but they still found a way to win. The Grizzlies controlled the glass by outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53 to 42 margin including 18 boards on the offensive glass. They also forced 23 turnovers. Creating additional scoring opportunities as a Plan B for a poor shooting night has been integral to Memphis’ surprising success this season. The Grizzlies led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots. They were also fourth in the NBA by forcing turnovers in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions. While forcing turnovers is not an effective strategy at the NBA level given the quality of the ball carriers, Memphis has made this dynamic an important component in this series as they lead all teams in the playoffs by forcing turnovers at an 18.3% clip, a very-high mark in the NBA. The Grizzlies should shoot better tonight after only hitting 7 of their 28 shots from 3-point range — they were a 35.2% team from 3-point range in the regular season. Jaren Jackson, Jr. was, once again, in foul trouble as he played only 17 minutes before fouling out. Depth is one of the other areas where Memphis has an edge. Desmond Bane has stepped up to score 28.3 Points-Per-Game with at least 25 points in the last three games — and he has nailed 18 shots from 3-point range in those games. Ja Morant struggled for most of Game Five with only 12 points after the first three quarters — but he poured in 18 points in the fourth quarter. If that version of Morant returns tonight, the Grizzlies should win this game comfortably. Minnesota has demonstrated they have trouble handling playoff pressure by blowing big leads. They handed back a 26-point lead in Game Three despite playing on their home court. And then on Tuesday, they entered the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves had an 11-point lead that they squandered. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. Minnesota remained competitive in Game Five because they held the Grizzlies to 41.5% shooting — but that was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. The T-Wolves rank just 10th in the postseason in offensive rebounding (24.8%) and eighth in forcing turnovers (14.9%). If their shots are not falling, their Plan B is not as compelling.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has demonstrated that they are the better team when they can bring their “A” game. After a flat effort in Game Five, look for the Grizzlies to end this series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (564) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (563) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (40-49) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-97 loss on the road against the Suns as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (67-20) has taken a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 40% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But this remains a team much better than their record after a slow 1-13 start to the season. Brandon Ingram is a rising superstar in the league and the trade for C.J. McCollum has transformed the team. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by double-digits. New Orleans has a decisive edge in this series on the boards. They won the rebounding battle by a 47-40 margin in Game Five which was actually the closest the Suns have come to matching the Pelicans on the boards in this series. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning the rebounding battle by at least five rebounds in three straight games. They return home to an energetic crowd where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win at home. And in their last 38 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last game, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of these contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix remains without their best scoring option in Devin Booker who is out for at least the rest of this series. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 62 games when playing with revenge for a same-season loss. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (564) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (556) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (56-30) had their eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in their 126-121 upset loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 4.5-point underdog. Denver (49-37) trails in the series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State should rebound with a strong effort tonight to close out the series. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home after a loss. The Warriors allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 28 games. Golden State made 50% of their shots — but that was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Denver simply cannot stop the Warriors' offensive attack. The Nuggets were 19th in the league after the All-Star break by allowing 115.4 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games. Golden State should play better on defense tonight. They were second in the NBA in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 107.7 points per 100 possessions — and they were third in half-court defense by holding their opponents to 91.2 points per 100 possessions. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 home games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games — including seven of their nine games this season — after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games when avenging an upset loss on the road where they were favored. Denver is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Warriors in Golden State. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (556) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (544) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (543) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (66-20) looks to rebound from their 118-103 upset loss on the road against the Pelicans as a 2-point underdog on Sunday night. New Orleans (40-48) evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after an upset loss. Even without the injured Devin Booker, the Suns made 50.6% of their shots on Sunday. The Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four straight games. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 playoff games when favored. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games on the road after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as a home underdog. New Orleans’ defense is an issue in this series since the Suns are consistently making 50% of their shots. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing their last four opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (544) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-28) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on the road to the Timberwolves by a 119-118 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (49-38) has evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota had most things go right for them in Game Four. They made 47.3% of their shots from the field — their best shooting effort since Game One — and nailed 18 of their 36 (50%) shots from behind the arc. After losing the free throw attempt battle by at least four shots in each of the first three games of the series, they took 40 shots from the charity stripe on Sunday — and they converted 31 of these shots which were six more than all of Memphis’ attempts from the free-throw line. Karl Anthony-Towns exploded with 33 points while steering away from the foul problems that plagued him in the previous two games. Ja Morant only scored 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting. Yet despite all these fortunate events, Minnesota only won the game by one point. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset win at home. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Taylor Jenkins ripped the referees after the game for the foul disparity — look for the Grizzlies to once again win the free throw attempt battle back on their home court. Morant should play better back at home as well. He has a 52.3% effective field goal percentage with a 40.4% shooting clip at home as opposed to his 46.6% effective field goal percentage and 29.6% mark from 3-point range on the road. Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (533) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (49-37) staved off elimination on Saturday with their 110-102 upset win against Philadelphia as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (54-32) still holds a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto pulled out Game Four despite only making 42.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They made just 8 of their 34 shots from behind the arc — so they should make more than 24% of their shots from 3-point range tonight. The Raptors will be without Fred VanVleet tonight as he is dealing with a hip injury — but they may be better off without him when considering the liability he has been on defense in this series. The 76ers are scoring at a 128.6 points per 100 possession rate with VanVleet on the court. They are getting outscored by -29.1 points per 100 possessions in this series with VanVleet on the court. The healthy return of Scottie Barnes in Game Four really helps this Toronto team. The rookie pulled down 11 boards while playing 25:34 minutes. Head coach Nick Nurse can rely on Barnes and Siakam Pascal to be the primary ball handlers. The Raptors score at a 128.9 points per 100 possession with Barnes and Pascal on the court together — and the duo is still scoring 124.4 points per 100 possessions even when not joined by VanVleet on the court. More importantly, Toronto holds their opponents to scoring at a 111.4 points per 100 possession rate with Barnes and Pascal on the court but without VanVleet. A benefit of not having VanVleet on the court is that Nurse can put five players on the court that are already comfortable in switching the players they are defending. The Raptors had been on a four-game losing streak before their win on Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing for the second time in five days. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Philadelphia played their best defensive game in their last 13 contests by holding the Raptors to 42.0% shooting. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing their last two games on the road. The 76ers return home where they have covered the point spread in just 10 of their last 16 games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Joel Embiid will play tonight — but his shot seems to be impacted by the injured thumb on his right hand. He missed 9 of his 16 shots including his only 3-point attempt on Saturday.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Toronto has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (533) plays the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527) in Game Four for their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (39-48) looks to rebound from their 114-111 loss at home to the Suns as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Phoenix (66-19) took a 2-1 lead in the series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should bounce-back and play well tonight. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing their second game in five days. The Pelicans were certainly in position to win the game — despite making only 11 of their 32 (34%) shots from behind the arc. New Orleans should continue to dominate the boards tonight as they have this entire postseason. The Pelicans have outrebounded each of their five playoff opponents by at least nine boards while winning the rebounding battle by at least ten rebounds in each of the first three games in this series. New Orleans has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 rebounds. Phoenix rallied to make 50.6% of their shots playing without the injured Devin Booker who will remain out for at least the next two weeks. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-38) has lost six of their last eight games after their 111-81 loss at home to the Bucks as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (53-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: We were not surprised that the Bucks stepped up to play their best game in this series in Game Three in response to Khris Middleton’s MCL strain in Game Two which will keep him out the rest of the series. But with the knowledge that the defending champions gained that they can raise their level of play and blow this Chicago team off the court, do they resort back to the lackadaisical group that was sluggish in the first two games of this series? Milwaukee swept the Bulls in their four regular-season games by a +14.7 net Points-Per-Game average. But they only made 40.5% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games before losing Game Two with their mild improvement in shooting to a 45.8% clip. Sloppiness with the basketball played a large role in the first two games — they committed 21 turnovers in Game One before committing 15 turnovers in Game Two. The Bucks were better in protecting the basketball on Friday with them only turning the ball over nine times. But with point guard George Hill still out with an abdominal injury, don’t be surprised if these turnover issues rear its ugly head again. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. Milwaukee made 47.3% of their shots without Middleton in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Bucks are likely to have trouble consistently getting baskets without Middleton who was scoring 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Milwaukee was fifth in the NBA by scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time — but that clip drops to 109.7 points per 100 possessions when playing without Middleton on the court. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% range. Chicago has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing two of their last three games. After a sluggish second half to the season, the Bulls have more closely resembled the team that opened the campaign with a 27-11 record. Getting Alex Caruso back from injury has made a big difference as he is the team’s best player on defense. The team certainly still misses Lonzo Ball — but their team dynamic may be better served to compete under the pressure of playoff basketball. They have a savvy veteran in DeMar DeRozan who silenced his critics that he disappears in the playoffs from his past experiences with Toronto and San Antonio by scoring 41 points in their upset win in Game Two. Chicago only made 9 of their 34 shots from behind the arc on Friday for a 26% shooting percentage en route to a 39.3% mark for the game. They should shoot better in Game Four on their home court again where they make 48.3% of their shots including 36.8% of their shots from 3-point range to generate 113.4 PPG. The Bulls had a 27-14 record while covering the point spread in 25 of their 41 games on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had their worst shooting game in 35 contests in Game One of this series by making just 40.5% of their shots. Rather than tightening things up, the Bucks were flat — particularly on defense — in Game Two against a team they had beaten in all five of their meetings this season. It is not uncommon for reigning NBA champions to become complacent. But now after that embarrassing result at home and now the series-ending injury to Khris Middleton, Milwaukee has lost the luxury of thinking they can take things for granted. The loss of Middleton is tough — but head coach Mike Budenholzer has credible options to turn to in Bobby Ports, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez remain as core pieces to this championship team. And the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring 30 Points-Per-Game in this series on 53.8% shooting while averaging 17 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Led by Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee should play their best game of the series tonight with this new sense of urgency. As it is, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored. This veteran team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win against a Central Division rival. Now the Bulls return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 72 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog this season. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against the Bulls in Chicago. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss where they were at least a 7-point favorite. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (571) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (50-34) looks to rebound from their 110-104 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (53-31) has won five of their last six games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah allowed the Mavericks to make 47.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Jazz have still held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage which has resulted in them giving up 99.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The extra day of rest should help Utah as they are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they have a 29-12 record with a net point differential of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. The Jazz are a scoring juggernaut at home where they make 48.0% of their shots and 36.4% of their 3-pointers which generates 116.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when playing for the second time in five days. Utah is also 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games on their home court. The Jazz do have a matchup problem on defense with the Mavericks’ small-ball lineup with five outside shooters since Rudy Gobert is not an effective perimeter defender. But the flip side of this coin is that Utah is dominating the glass in this series. Utah has won the rebounding battle by at least 19 boards in three straight games after out-rebounding Dallas by a 50-31 margin on Monday. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 57 games after out-rebounding three straight opponents by at least 10 boards. Luka Doncic has been upgraded to questionable to play tonight with his calf injury — but the reports this afternoon remained pessimistic that he would play. Even if Doncic plays, how effective he will be able to be with an injured calf remains a significant question. Without Doncic on Monday, the Mavericks stepped up to nail 22 of their 47 shots from behind the arc. Maxi Kleber made 8 of his 11 shots from 3-point range — despite making only 18% of his 3-pointers scene the All-Star break. Dallas makes only 34.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road so they are not likely to come close to replicating that performance. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season on the road with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. The Mavericks have also fueled to cover the point spread 3 of their last 4 playoff games when the series was tied.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (570) plus the point(s) versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (48-37) looks to bounce back from their 124-96 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Memphis (57-27) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota only made 39.5% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 27 games. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road by double-digits. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Memphis shot 47.8% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 25 road games when playing for not more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Memphis is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road. They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 20* NBA Memphis-Minnesota TNT Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (570) plus the point(s) versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (566) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (565) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-31) has won four of their last five games after their 93-86 victory as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (46-37) has lost five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee beat the Bulls by 7 points despite only making 40.5% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games. They only made 18.9% of their shots from behind the arc after the first quarter which is almost 50% below their 36.5% clip from 3-point range for the season. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games when leading in the series. Chicago played their best defensive game in their last 26 contests by holding Milwaukee to 40.5% shooting — but defense was a big problem for this team after injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Bulls allowed their opponents to score 117.9 points per 100 possessions which was the sixth-worst mark in the league. Chicago does have Caruso back — but they miss Ball. The Bulls also allow their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the regular season which was the worst mark in the NBA. Chicago double-teamed Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game One — but the Bucks did not punish them by nailing their 3s. Don’t be surprised if the Bucks respond to double-teams on the Greek Freak by scorching the nets from distance tonight. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has now lost 17 of their 18 games against the Bucks in the Antetokounmpo era — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Milwaukee. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Milwaukee Bucks (566) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-36) has lost three straight games after losing on the road to the 76ers by a 112-97 score as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (53-31) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: It may look tough to back Toronto after losing the first two games of this series by 20 and 15 points. Injuries have played a role. Scottie Barnes is still listed as doubtful tonight with his ankle injury but Gary Trent, Jr. should play after playing 10 minutes on Monday. He was not effective but the two additional days of fluids should help him play better tonight after a case of the flu. The Raptors still lack the size to deal with Joel Embiid with Barnes out — but in head coach Nick Nurse, I trust, to get this team playing better back on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. Toronto has not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a three-game losing streak. The Sixers have made 51.2% and 52.2% of their shots in this series — but the Raptors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to nail at least 50% of their shots. Back at home, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. And while the 76ers have won their last four games by at least 12 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. Philly held the Raptors to just 42.7% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But now this team goes back on the road where they have not been as effective. They are not likely to continue a 32 to 17.5 free throw attempt average as they have enjoyed in the first two games in Philadelphia. The Sixers will probably see fewer of their 3-pointers fall in Toronto as well — while they are nailing a red-hot 49% of their shots from behind the arc in this series, they should come closer to their 36.7% shooting percentage from 3-point range moving forward. Philly will not have Matisse Thybulle tonight since he is not vaccinated against COVID which precludes him from traveling to Canada. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto against the Raptors. 25* NBA Round One Eastern Conference Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (553) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (554) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-47) looks to rebound from their 110-99 loss on the road to the Suns in the opening game of this series on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Phoenix (65-18) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans was perhaps due for a clunker after surviving the Play-In Tournament last week. They only made 37.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 73 games. They missed 45 of their 72 shots from inside the arc. But this remains a team better than their record after starting the season by losing 13 of their first 14 games. The Pelicans slowly improved under rookie head coach Willie Green — and they were transformed after acquiring C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. Even after Sunday, New Orleans has a 14-6 record when McCollum and Brandon Ingram are healthy and on the court together. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 games when playing their third game on the road in the last five days. There were two encouraging developments for New Orleans Sunday night. First, they dominated the boards against the Suns — they outrebounded them by a 55 to 35 margin with 25 second-chance opportunities on the offensive end of the court. New Orleans has out-rebounded their three postseason opponents by at least nine rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting out-rebounding their last three opponents by at least five rebounds. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on the road. Phoenix is great — but they will be quite content to win this game by one point. The question is whether or not they will cover the 10 or so points they are being asked to lay. Despite racing out to a 53-34 halftime lead and despite nailing 53.8% of their shots — the best shooting effort in their last six games, they only won Game One by 11 points. And that brings up the second encouraging aspect from Sunday night’s game: despite such a slow start and overall underwhelming effort, New Orleans was still around in the game before the Suns pulled away to cover the point spread late. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games when favored, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 60 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (553) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-27) has lost four of their last five games after their 130-117 upset loss to the Timberwolves in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Minnesota (48-36) has won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis’ lack of playoff experience may have caught up with them in their opening game in the playoffs this postseason against a Timberwolves team that got through the Play-In Tournament. But the Grizzlies remain a talented and deep team that was just one of two teams in the NBA to post a top-six ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. They have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots — and they missed 20 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Memphis locked up the second seed before the regular season ended — and now it is the time for them to ramp up their intensity again under head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies have Ja Morant back — and Jenkins is one of the best young coaches in the game. They should respond with a strong effort to even this series at 1-1. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 51 games after a loss by double-digits. They still have a 30-11 record on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Minnesota got what they needed with the victory in Game One to seize home-court advantage in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. I appreciate that Minnesota is better than their record after enduring a regular-season dealing with injuries and COVID issues. But they too are inexperienced in the postseason. Don’t be surprised if their effort is underwhelming tonight. As it is, the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in Memphis. 25* NBA-TV Game of the Year is on the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (531) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should have a big edge in terms of energy tonight with the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest between games. And while the Suns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. After reaching the NBA Finals last year before losing to Milwaukee, Phoenix has covered the point in 13 of their last 18 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has won four of their last six games after their two victories this week in the Play-In Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Pelicans were favored and covered the point spread in both their Play-In games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games when favored. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Suns. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (530) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (529) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-31) had their three-game winning streak snapped on the final day of the regular season last Sunday in a 133-115 loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point underdog. Chicago (46-36) ended a four-game losing streak with a 124-120 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee rested their starters against the Cleveland in a soft-tank job to drop back to the third seed — and avoid the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs. The reigning NBA champions should be rested and ready for this contest. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Milwaukee is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Chicago may be due for a letdown because they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a poking spread victory. The Bulls started the season hot with a 27-11 record. Injuries and the cooling-off of DeMar DeRozan after a red hot start in a Bulls’ uniform contributed to the team only 19-25 the rest of the way — including an 8-15 mark since the All-Star break. Chicago does have Alex Caruso back after he missed much of the second half of the season to injury — but while he helps their cause on defense, they are still without Lonzo Ball who played an important role in slowing down their opponents before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bulls rank 25th in the NBA since the All-Star break by allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.5% of their shots last week which was the fifth time in their last six games that they have allowed an opponent to nail at least 50% of their shots from the field. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has dominated Chicago in the Giannis Antetokounmpo era with just one loss back in December of 2017 in their last 17 clashes. The average margin of victory for the Bucks this season in their four victories against the Bulls was +14.7 points — and they won their last two games against them by +24.5 PPG. 20* NBA Chicago-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (530) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (528) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (527) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-29) had their six-game winning streak snapped on the last day of the regular season last Sunday in a 125-111 upset loss at Orlando as a 7-point favorite. Atlanta (45-39) claimed the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs with their 107-101 win at Cleveland as a 2-point favorite in their Play-In game on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami is rested and fully healthy again with Bam Adebayo off the COVID list and P.J. Tucker recovered from the calf injury that kept him out of the final regular-season games. The Heat have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And while their loss to the Magic did not impact their playoff position (and they rested key players), they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Miami hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Miami is usually a reliable favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games in the playoffs when laying the points. Atlanta had to survive two must-win games in the Play-In Tournament this week — so they may be ripe for an emotional letdown after surviving that two-game gauntlet. As it is, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up victory. If there was a dark cloud in their win on the road against the Cavaliers on Friday, it was that Clint Capela suffered a knee injury that will keep him out this afternoon. With John Collins still out with a foot injury, Atlanta is very thin upfront. They are also without a spark-plug scorer off the bench in Lou Williams. While the Hawks have a 28-14 record at home, now they go back on the road where they are just 17-25. They score -3.0 PPG away from home versus their season average while shooting 45.9% from the field which is down from their 47.1% mark overall. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Miami to play the Heat. 20* NBA Atlanta-Miami TNT Special with the Miami Heat (528) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (524) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (523) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (53-29) enters the postseason on a five-game winning streak after their 128-107 victory at New Orleans as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (48-34) has lost two of their last three games after a 146-141 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6-point favorite to end the regular season on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State expects Stephen Curry to rejoin the team tonight after he missed time with his foot injury. The Warriors were outscoring their opponents by 10 Points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court. He is scoring 25.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 6.3 Assists-Per-Game and 5.2 Rebounds-Per-Game. Remember, when Curry and Draymond Green were both healthy at the beginning of the season, the Golden State raced out to an 18-2 start — and they had the best record in the NBA on January 3rd. Injuries then hit this team with Curry and Green missing extended time — and they went 10-20 from February to March. But Klay Thompson has returned to the court and looked pretty good on April 2nd when he nailed 14 of 28 shots en route to 36 points against Utah. This will be the first time that the Big Three of Curry, Thompson, and Green will be playing together in the postseason in three years. Head coach Steve Kerr’s team has also seen the emergence of Jordan Poole with the former Michigan standout scoring 25.8 PPG with 6.2 Assists-Per-Game and 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game while nailing 37.4% of his shots from behind the arc since Curry went down with his injury in March. The Warriors should be fresh with the week off — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Golden State has also covered the points spread in 29 of their last 41 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Denver held the Lakers to just 46.8% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Nuggets have still allowed their opponents to score 118.1 points per 100 possessions in the last two weeks to end the regular season. Defense is a weakness of this team — they rank 19th in the NBA since the All-Star break by allowing their opponents to score 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Nikola Jokic is likely to win his second-straight Most Valuable Player award later this year — but the Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still on the shelf with injuries. This will be the first time that Nokic will battle against Green this season who did not play in the four regular-season meetings due to injury. In 18 career games defending Nokic, Green has held the superstar to just 15.7 PPG on 47.9% shooting from the field. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Golden State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 20* NBA Denver-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (524) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-26) enters the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after their 139-110 loss to Boston as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (47-36) has won four of their last six games after their 109-104 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves orchestrated a dramatic comeback by rallying from a six-point deficit entering the fourth quarter by outscoring the Clippers by a 31-20 margin despite playing most of that final 12 minutes with Karl Anthony-Towns. After the game, Patrick Beverley partied like it was 1999 in front of the home fans after sticking it to his former team. Anthony Edwards scored 30 points and D’Angelo Russell added 29 points. After that accomplishment, I am expecting a big emotional letdown with this team now in the official playoffs. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a victory by six points or less. The Timberwolves are a tough out at home where they have a 27-15 record. But on the road, Minnesota is just 20-21 while allowing their opponents to make 48.4% of their shots. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, they may be without Taurean Prince for this game who is questionable with a knee injury. The former Baylor star scored 10.5 Points-Per-Game while averaging more than 20 minutes per game off the bench since the All-Star break. Memphis has rested all week licking their chops for their opponent to survive the Play-In Tournament — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They rested their starters last Sunday in a game where they only made 38.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. But the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. Memphis has been dominant at home with a 30-11 record — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 41 games. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team has Ja Morant back in the mix after he missed extended time in the second half of the season. Memphis is real good — only they and Phoenix finished the regular season ranked in the top-six and Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 119-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite on February 24th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in Memphis. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (511) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (37-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 113-103 win against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite in their first play-in game on Wednesday. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their five-game winning streak end with a 109-104 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog in their first play-in game on Wednesday. The winner of this game plays at Phoenix in Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals on Sunday.

UPDATE: I released this play before the news this afternoon that Paul George is out for tonight with COVID. Obviously, if you are already down with New Orleans getting 3-4 points, this is fortuitous news. I still consider this a 10* play on the Pelicans even as a small road favorite against a Clippers team without George. I do not think New Orleans laying points against the Clippers without George is a stronger play (so do not recommend upgrading the investment).

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch the eighth seed in the Western Conference and the right to host the first play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer scored 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots in the regular season for his new team— and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. Against the Spurs, McCollum led the way with 32 points on 12 of 23 shooting while adding 7 assists and 6 rebounds. He offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 16 games together this season, they now won ten of those contests. Ingram scored 27 points on Wednesday. The Pelicans will be a tough out in this game even playing at Crytpo.com Arena. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles has Paul George back — but he is being asked to carry this team with Kawhi Leonard. We got a glimpse of the old self-proclaimed “Playoff P” on Wednesday with the Clippers getting outscored by a 31-20 margin to blow their 84-78 lead after the third quarter — and that all occurred despite Karl-Anthony Towns fouling out early in the final quarter. Los Angeles may win this game — but George was not dominant in clutch time against the Timberwolves. The Clippers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest. They host this play-in game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 119-100 score — but the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 58 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (511) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 115-108 loss at Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog in their first Play-In game on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-39) won their eighth game in their last ten games with a 132-103 victory against Charlotte as a 5-point favorite in their first Play-In game on Wednesday. The winner of this game seizes the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and plays at Miami on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed the Nets to make 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst defensive mark in their last 11 games. But after digging themselves a hole early with a 20-point deficit after the first quarter, the Cavs did keep fighting to stay competitive and cover the point spread. Darius Garland was outstanding as he nailed 13 of his 24 shots en route to 34 points. Cleveland is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread win. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have dropped six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Returning home will help this team where they were 25-16 this season (as opposed to their 19-23 record on the road). They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games as an underdog. Cleveland also may get Jarrett Allen back for this game — and that would be a big shot in the arm for this team. The Cavaliers already got rookie big man Evan Mobley back earlier this week — and if they can also get Allen back on the court after missing 19 games from a finger injury, they have their dynamic duo in the middle which makes them a very difficult team to score against. With Allen on the court, Cleveland allows -3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game — and he clearly wants to play given that the Cavs’ season could end tonight with a loss. Even if Allen does not play, Cleveland should stay competitive in this game with a real chance to extend their season. Having a veteran like Rajon Rondo playing alongside Garland should help in this one-and-done playoff game. Atlanta comes off one of their best games of the season. They held the Hornets to just 37.8% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 35 games. They also nailed 52.1% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage in their last seven contests. Trae Young scored 24 points but only on 8 of 24 shooting. Five other players scoring in double figures helped compensate for Young missing seven of his eight shots from behind the arc. Interestingly, the deeper analytics projected that the Hawks would typically only win that game against the Hornets by six points based on the expected points from the quality of shots taken. A letdown looks likely for this team — and this is a group not playing at full strength who has not been nearly as effective on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta thrives at home where they have a 28-14 record — but they are just 16-25 on the road. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by up to six points. Injuries continue to keep this team undermanned. Lou Williams is out and now Bogan Bogdanovich is questionable with an ankle. But it is the likely absence of big man John Collins for the 18th straight game that looms most ominous in this matchup. Atlanta needs his size against Mobley and potentially Allen in the middle. The Hawks have managed to out-rebound their last three opponents by at least ten boards after winning the rebounding battle against the Hornets by a 54-41 margin. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have won the last three meetings between these two teams — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge. The recent success against Cleveland — and their easy one on Wednesday — may work against this Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (36-46) enters this game coming off two straight losses after a 128-107 loss to Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Antonio (34-48) has lost three in a row after their 130-120 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday to determine the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch hosting this play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer is scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots — and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. McCollum offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 15 games together this season, they won nine of those contests. Ingram was dealing with a hamstring injury last week but he has been upgraded to probable alongside Jonas Valuncianas, Devonte Graham, and Herbert Jones who should all be good to go. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in Net Rating while ranking 10th in the league with their Offensive Rating and ninth with their Defensive Rating. They did allow the Warriors to make 60.5% of their shots on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. Additionally, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Spurs are solid but unspectacular. They rank 17th in Net Rating for the season with an Offensive Rating that is 17th in the NBA and a Defensive Rating that is 16th. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks 19th in Net Rating, placing 17th still in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating. Their .414 winning percentage would not have been good enough to reach the Play-In Tournament last season, but they were the beneficiaries of the second-half collapses by the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has gotten the most out of his roster. But New Orleans holds a significant talent edge now that they have McCollum playing alongside Ingram. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (43-39) has won three straight games after their 124-108 win against Washington as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (43-39) has won seven of their last nine contests with their 130-114 victory at Houston as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game plays at Cleveland on Friday to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte enters the playoffs playing perhaps their best basketball of the season. In their last 15 games, they rank second in the NBA in Net Rating. The emergence of P.J. Washington has given them an alternative strong lineup to make up for Gordon Hayward once again being on the shelf with an injury. The Hornets have closed out the regular season by winning 13 of their last 18 games despite Hayward being out with his injury. Charlotte is an elite scoring team that ranks sixth in the NBA by averaging 114.8 points per 100 minutes (non-garbage time) — and they have risen to second in the league in Offensive Rating in their last 15 games. Their 54.8% effective field goal percentage and their 37.0% mark from behind the arc both rank seventh in the league. The Hawks’ perimeter defense can be shaky — they rank 25th in the NBA by allowing their opponents to make 36.4% of their 3-pointers and they have allowed their opponents to nail 36.9% of these shots since the All-Star break. The Hornets have made at least 52.2% of their shots in each of their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a Southeast Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing their second game in five days. They have been reliable on the road where they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Charlotte is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games as an underdog. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots on Sunday against the Rockets which was the best offensive effort in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win on the road. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with two days of rest. The Hawks are not at 100% for this game with John Collins still out with a foot injury — and Lou Williams has been declared out for tonight with a sore back. Even without Collins, Atlanta has out-rebounded their last two opponents by 16 and 10 boards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 rebounds.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte qualified for the Play-In Tournament last year where they got crushed by Indiana by 27 points. They should learn from that experience — and they won ten more games this season. Trae Young may carry the Hawks to the victory — but with the Hornets having three leaders on the court in LeMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier, they should keep this game close (if they don’t pull the upset). 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (502). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-38) snapped a three-game losing streak to conclude their regular season with a 133-115 victory against Milwaukee as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Brooklyn (44-38) has won four in a row after their 134-126 victory against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Granted, Brooklyn has a 36-19 record with a healthy Kevin Durant — that is a 53-win pace which would have tied them with Miami for the top record in the Eastern Conference. And the Nets are 11-6 straight-up this season when Durant is playing with Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn is better than their record — and they have even stepped up their play on defense in the last two weeks where they rank 11th in Defensive Rating. But the most consistent thing about this team all season has been their inability to cover spreads. The market is overrated this team as they continue to wait for them to simply flip the switch — and this dynamic has not changed with Durant and Irving both available to play. The Nets are just 7-10 ATS in the 17 games these two stars have played together. At home in the Barclays Center, Brooklyn is an ugly 6-26-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 26 home games when favored. Irving did miss most of those games given his refusal to get a COVID vaccine — but since New York City lifted the vaccine requirement for city employees, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 home games with Irving on the court rather than smirking from the stands where the vaccine requirement did not extend. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after a point spread loss. This is a flawed roster after their Big Two with Ben Simmons and Joe Harris still our for this game. Cleveland is not the same team as they were earlier in the season given the injuries to Collin Sexton and Jarrett Allen. They have lost 17 of their last 26 games since the Allen injury who plays a crucial role in their defense. But this team still has two promising young players in Darius Garland and rookie Evan Mobley — and they have a rising head coach in J.B. Bickerstaff. The question is not “will the Cavaliers win this game?”, it is “will they keep it in single digits?” — and they are playing with house money with everyone discounting their chances. Even with a loss, Cleveland gets to host the Atlanta-Charlotte winner in the second Play-In game which gives them a back door to continue their postseason. They beat a Bucks team that was resting their starters — but the Cavaliers have still covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Having a healthy Mobley again who missed time in the last few weeks helps the Cleveland cause on defense. While Allen is important, the Cavaliers have a Defensive Rating of 108.9 with him off the court — and that would rank 5th best in the NBA. Brooklyn’s offense is elite with Durant and Irving — but they have not been quite as prolific against top-ten defenses.

FINAL TAKE: The lone Nets point spread cover at home with Irving playing was against this Cleveland team in a 118-107 victory as an 8-point favorite on April 8th. But Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Cleveland-Brooklyn TNT Special with the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (557) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (558). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-52) has lost three straight games after their 117-98 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog yesterday. Phoenix (64-17) has won two of their last three contests after a 110-105 upset win at Utah as a 3-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has the number one seed in the NBA playoffs locked up — so they have nothing to play for tonight. Head coach Monty Williams has confirmed that he is resting his key players — so Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder, and Cameron Payne are not playing tonight. We played the Suns earlier this week under similar circumstances — but we were getting the points in that one. Phoenix as a double-digit favorite playing the backups is too much to ask — even against the Kings. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Sacramento had been playing pretty well for head coach Alvin Gentry playing out the string before this recent three-game slide. The Kings are now locked with the seventh-worst record in the league — so they might as well play hard tonight. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games playing without a day of rest. Gentry has been using these games in the final few weeks of the season to get as much playing time to their rookie Davion Mitchell who has validated their investment in a first-round pick in him. The Kings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. They have not covered the point spread in three straight games while allowing each of these opponents to make at least 48.8% of their shots. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last three opponents to shoot at least 47% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings will have motivation to avenge a 127-124 loss at home to Phoenix on March 20th. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Suns. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (557) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (589) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (590). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-16) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 121-110 victory at home against the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Los Angeles (39-40) has won three of their last four games after their 119-100 victory against New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a small value play on Phoenix as I think the market has overvalued the impact of the Suns’ potentially resting their starters tonight. The logic is this: since Phoenix has locked up the best record and top seed in the NBA, there is no reason for head coach Monty Williams to play his best players on the back end of games in back-to-back days. Maybe … probably. Although Williams rested his starters on Sunday in what ended up being a 117-96 loss at Oklahoma City as a 14.5-point favorite. Williams does not want his team to go on complete autopilot since flipping the switch may be easier said than done. And there was speculation that the starters would not play last night — but they did. I can see Williams playing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton for 25 or so minutes to keep them in rhythm against playoff-caliber competition. And I am comfortable with the B team led by Aaron Gordon and Bismack Biyombo — after opening as a 3-point road favorite, the market pushing the line to the Suns getting 6 or so points looks like an overreaction to me. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when getting the points. The thing is about the Clippers is that they have nothing to play for either — they are locked in the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs. They are just waiting to see who they will face in the Play-In Tournament. There is a desire to get Paul George minutes after being injured and on the shelf for months — but that does not mean it is likely he logs in 40 minutes tonight. They are also likely to still be without Norman Powell who is doubtful with an injury. Los Angeles held the Pelicans to just 40.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games when playing with two days of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing their second game in five days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (589) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (590). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: David McCormack may have played the best game of his career on Saturday by making 10 of 12 shots in the field en route to his 25 points. He dominated the Wildcats inside and took full advantage of their lack of size. But McCormack has been enigmatic his entire career — he has a high ceiling but his biggest challenge has been maintaining consistency from game to game. McCormack is emblematic of this entire Kansas team: when they are playing at their best, they look unbeatable. But too often this Jayhawks team gets in their own way as they seem to lose focus. After trailing Miami (FL) 35-29 at half-time in their Elite Eight, Kansas has probably their best 60 consecutive minutes all season. But, frankly, I will pay to see if they can nail 13 of 24 (54%) of their 3-pointers as they did against Villanova. The Jayhawks had only made 33% of their shots from behind the arc in their 11 previous games on a neutral court before Saturday. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after nailing at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. This Jayhawks team was flat in the first half against the Hurricanes last weekend. They struggled against an injured Creighton team playing without their best two players. They let Providence back in their Round of 32 game despite the Friars not being able to hit the side of a barn for most of that contest.

Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into Saturday in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Duke game). What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on Saturday who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: I will not be surprised if Kansas does not play as well as they did on Saturday. But even if they play at the same high level as they did in the second half against Miami (FL) and Villanova, I still expect North Carolina to be very competitive. The Jayhawks will not be able to dominate the offensive boards like they did the Wildcats by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots. North Carolina ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.6% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog.  I think North Carolina wins straight-up — but I do not recommend “sprinkling” (such a lame phrasing for throwing one’s money away) any money on them with the money-line. Why forego the insurance that is the 4 or so points they are getting in this game? If you want to make more money, then parlay the Tar Heels (with the points) with my totals play for this game. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (552) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (551). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-49) has won two straight games and four out of their last five after their 122-117 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Friday. Golden State (49-29) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 111-107 upset victory against Utah as a 2-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento is closer to qualifying for the play-in game than they are to being one of the bottom-four teams in the league with more ping pong balls for the June NBA draft. They are only 3 1/2 games behind San Antonio for tenth place in the Western Conference while being 6 1/2 games above Oklahoma City in the bottom four. This team is playing hard for head coach Alvin Gentry — even without the injured De’Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis. Fox being out alongside the trading of Tyrese Halliburton to Indiana in the Sabonis deal has opened the for rookie Davion Mitchell to play plenty of minutes at guard for the Kings. The former Baylor star and first-round draft pick has responded by scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game and dishing out 8.7 Assists-Per-Game. Now after completing a five-game road trip, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Sacramento is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Golden State made 47.6% of their shots against the Jazz which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after losing two of their last three games. Golden State remains without Steph Curry who is out with a knee injury. The Warriors score 114.9 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court while outscoring their opponents by +10.9 points per 100 possessions — but without Curry on the floor, they only score 104.9 points per 100 possessions while getting outscored by -3.7 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread 4 straight games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games when favored by up to six points. Additionally, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has won the last four meetings between these two teams after their 136-114 win against the Kings on February 3rd. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 meetings with the Kings — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Sacramento. The Kings have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (552) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considers the Tar Heels the best team in the nation in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also rank North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th. What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against the Peacocks. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. We have backed Duke in their last two wins (and covers) against Arkansas and Texas Tech — but I hate this spot for them. I suspect this the game that the enormous pressure this young team has in carrying the legacy of head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final games before retirement. I heard some pundits comment that the pressure was higher in their final home game at Cameroon Indoor against this Tar Heels team with all the alumni in the house. While I appreciate there was pressure then, to suggest that a regular-season game on the second Saturday in March presented more pressure than a Final Four is ludicrous. And, by the way, this team did not handle that pressure very well in that 94-81 loss. The team trends point to this being a letdown spot for Duke. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have scored at least 78 points in each of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. The Blue Devils have some issues. They only rank 45th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they fall slightly to 51st in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. It is their half-court defense that is the biggest weakness as their opponents have a 47.0% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking just 48th in the nation. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. These teams share more than having campuses within eight miles of each other. The profile of both teams is dynamic offenses with athletes that crash the glass on both ends of the court — and while neither team forces turnovers, they both rank in the top seven in the nation in opponent foul rate. But it is North Carolina that ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.2% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Duke has the revenge angle here from that 13-point loss as an 11-point favorite — but the historical numbers in the NCAA Tournament regarding teams looking to avenge a same-season loss favor the team that won the previous game. Admittedly, that is from a limited sample size over many years — but it suggests that the market might be overvaluing Duke as if the revenge angle means they “really, really” want to win as opposed to just “really” wanting to beat UNC. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — including failing to cover the spread in three of those four opportunities this season. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home under Coach K. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. All four of Villanova’s other starters are very good — and the team does not miss a beat when Caleb Daniels comes off the bench. Depth is an issue for head coach Jay Wright — but that has been a challenge all year despite dealing with injuries and COVID issues all season. Wright uses a smaller bench by choice, John Wooden-style. Look for the team to rally together for this game and play quite well. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Villanova has held their last two opponents to 55 or fewer points, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 55 points in two straight games. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. The Jayhawks had been listless of many of their NCAA Tournament games against probably the easiest draw of all the four teams in New Orleans this weekend. They do come off the best 20 minutes of basketball they played in the Big Dance when they steamrolled the Hurricanes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Bill Self’s Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games in the Big Dance. In Jay Wright, I Trust to at least keep this one a coin flip at the end. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (27-12) has won 11 of their last 12 games with a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Tuesday. Xavier (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Buzz Williams complained loudly about the tragic injustice it was that his Texas A&M team did not get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament after beating Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship game. It’s shame this small private school scarping for money can’t catch a break — especially after losing nine of ten games during a midseason slump. No one is feeling sorry for Texas A&M — and often teams that feel robbed from an at-large bid then fall flat in the NIT. Credit goes to Williams for keeping his team focused as they have beaten all four of their opponents in this tournament by at least 12 points. Now with one game away from taking the title, look for another strong effort from the Aggies. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The calling card for this team is defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while rising 10th in the country in that metric over their last ten games. After limiting the Cougars to just 34.5% shooting on Tuesday, they have held their last five opponents to no better than 39.3% field goal percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing at last three straight opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Xavier made 53.1% of their shots in their victory against the Bonnies which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Xavier has faced turmoil all season. After an 11-2 start to their Big East campaign, they lost 11 of their next 17 conference games which cost them a spot in the Big Dance. After beating Cleveland State in the first round of the NIT, the program let head coach Travis Steele. Assistant coach Jonas Hayes took over on an interim basis with the university re-hiring Sean Miller after his tumultuous run at Arizona. The team also lost their fifth-year senior point guard Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury in their second NIT game against Florida. This leaves the Musketeers short-handed with just a six-man rotation. Scruggs was the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 11.7 Points-Per-Game — and he led the team by dishing out 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. He is critical in protecting the basketball against pressure as well — in that game against the Gators where he got injured, Xavier turned the ball over 18 times representing 24.0% of their possessions. Now they face a Texas A&M team that is eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Aggies’ depth is also a strength as they rank 23rd in the nation in bench minutes with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Williams will be able to throw waves of players and pressure at a Xavier team missing their floor general.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year is on the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (39-37) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 113-109 loss to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (34-42) has won four games in a row with their 109-104 upset victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has been playing well — despite that loss to the Nuggets. They have won seven of their last nine games and appear entrenched to at least qualify for the Play-In games for the postseason as they are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the eighth spot by one game. After struggling to replace the injured Gordon Hayward’s contributions, they are getting solid across-the-board play from P.J. Washington. The former Kentucky star is scoring 11.3 Points-Per-Game this month while adding 4.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 3.1 Assists-Per-Game and making 35.4% of his shots from 3-point range. The Hornets are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. Furthermore, Charlotte is 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York is starting to play better now that they have likely buried their shot at making the playoffs. They are 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the tenth spot in the Eastern Conference. In their upset victory against the Bulls, they held Chicago to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games, and tied for the best performance on that end of the court in their last ten contests. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Injuries remain an issue for this team. They are without Cam Reddish, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker with the latter put on the shelf because he does not fit head coach Tom Thibodeau’s plans. Nerlens Noel and Quentin Grimes are both out tonight with injuries — and Evan Fournier is questionable for reasons listed as “personal”. This team is going nowhere this year — and taking some days off down the stretch as they softly tank appears likely. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be motivated to avenge a 121-106 loss at home to the Knicks on March 23rd. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (27-9) has won nine of their last ten games with their 73-66 upset win against UCLA as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Saint Peter’s (22-11) won their tenth game in a row with their 67-64 upset win against Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina was considered a top-15 team in the nation in the preseason — and after a sluggish start to the season, they are peaking at the right time now in March. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Saint Peter’s has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament despite losing all three games using the expected baskets from the analytics department at Shot Quality. The Peacocks were able to handle the Boilermakers' size — but that may speak more about Purdue than it does them with hindsight. Saint Peter’s is going to have their hands full dealing with Armando Bacot and Brady Manek. Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing their second game in three days. The Peacocks' fortunes have extended to the free-throw line where they ranked 234th in the nation by making 70% of their shots at the charity stripe. In the NCAA Tournament, the Peacocks have made 60 of their 73 shots from the free-throw line. They got to the line 21 times against Purdue where they made 19 of their freebies (90.4%) — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. Getting to the free-throw line is Saint Peter’s game as they rank 17th in the nation in free throw rate — but the Tar Heels do not foul as they rank 8th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. This Peacocks team remains below average on offense with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 216th in the nation. They only make 46% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 314th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions, ranking 298th. Eventually, these characteristics catch up to big underdogs. And while they rank 71st in the nation by pulling down 31.4% of their misses, North Carolina is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 21.4% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Peter’s will continue to play good defense — but they will need an outlier effort on offense from behind the 3-point line to stay competitive with this surging Tar Heels team. 20* CBB Saint Peter’s-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 66-61 victory against Providence as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (26-10) has won six of their last seven contests with their 70-56 win against Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas can be a frustrating team to watch — but they have a significant talent edge in this game which should shine through in the end. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least two in a row without covering the point spread as a favorite. Kansas is playing well on the defensive end of the court. They have not allowed a tournament opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots after holding the Friars to just 33.8% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% of their shots. The Jayhawks are a bit better than their metrics suggest now that Remy Martin is healthy again and fully in the mix. He has scored double-digits in five straight games while leading the team with 58 points so far in this tournament. Kansas is efficient on offense as they usually take good shots — they rank fifth in the nation with a 1.27 Points-Per-Possession in Shot Quality. The Jayhawks' big edge in this game is their offensive rebounding. Kansas ranks 35th in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots — and the Hurricanes allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots, ranking 271st in the nation. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory by double-digits. They have played three straight Unders — but the Hurricanes have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Miami has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Hurricanes are a potent offensive team that does not turn the ball over while shooting 55.0% inside the arc. They force turnovers on defense which facilitates their transition offense. But this is not a good defensive team in the half-court. Miami ranks 114th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 283rd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They allow their opponents to make 52.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 299th in the country — and this will likely be the source of their demise against the Jayhawks.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.