At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (503) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (504) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Detroit (45-41) has lost five of their last six games after their 94-93 upset loss at home against the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (54-32) took a 3-1 series lead with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will have another chip on their shoulder for this game after feeling they got jobbed by the referees for not calling a foul when Tim Hardaway got bumped in his last-second 3-point attempt. The league later admitted a foul should have been called. The Pistons have been very competitive in this series — so they are not lacking in confidence against this Knicks team. They only made 42.9% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. As it is, Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after losing at home in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two games in a row including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The Pistons did win in Madison Square Garden in Game Two of this series last Monday — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 42 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog of up to six points. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including 12 of those 19 games played on the road. New York played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Pistons to 42.9% shooting. While regression on that end of the court is likely, the Knicks are struggling to make baskets against this physical Detroit defense. New York is only making 44.7% of their shots in the four games in this series which has resulted in just 107.3 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home. Additionally, New York has only covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams winning 51-60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 opportunities to avenge a loss at home including nine of those 13 games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home as the favorite. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (503) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-22) had won four games in a row before their 95-93 upset loss on the road against the Magic as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Orlando (43-43) trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jrue Holiday is out for Boston tonight as he deals with a hamstring injury — but Jayson Tatum is probable despite his wrist injury and Jaylen Brown is expected to play despite being officially listed as questionable because of his knee. Tatum scored 36 points in Game Three while Brown added 19 points. The Celtics only made 44.6% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort for them in this series. But Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game including all seven of those games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by six points or less including all four of those games played on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Orlando pulled off the upset despite only making 41.0% of their shots. They are only making 43.5% of their shots in this series which is resulting in a mere 93.7 Points-Per-Game. Scoring is the Achilles’ heel of this season since they only make 44.5% of their shots this season which has produced only 105.2 PPG. They rank 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month is with the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (567) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (53-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 109-94 victory as a 4-point favorite at home against the Warriors on Wednesday. Golden State (50-35) had won two games in a row before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston got the proverbial money off their back by winning their first playoff game in the Jalen Green era. I expect them to play loose and with confidence tonight. After struggling in Game One, Green was sensational in Game Two by scoring 38 points from 13 of 25 shooting including an 8 of 18 clip from behind the arc. Head coach Ime Udoka has his team playing physical basketball which should translate well into the postseason. The Rockets rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the league by pulling down 36.3% of their missed shots. They outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home against teams who outrebound their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG. Golden State lacks size and does not have an effective counter to Houston’s big man Alperin Sengun. This young Rockets team will enter into this game rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games when playing for the second time in five days. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while they had played three straight games at home before tonight, Houston has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more games in a row at home. Additionally, while the books expect an old-fashioned NBA rock fight tonight with the Total set in the 203 range, that fits Udoka’s coaching style quite well when considering his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of the 21 games in his head coaching career when the Total was set from 200 to 209.5. Golden State’s Jimmy Butler is a game-time decision tonight after he suffered a pelvis injury during Wednesday’s game. He is officially listed as questionable — and we have to assume that Butler plays given his toughness. If he can’t take the court, then swell. But even if he plays tonight, he will likely not be close to 100%. As it is, the Warriors have scored only 94 and 95 points in the first two games of this series. This team lacked a reliable second scorer to help Stephen Curry which is why the organization traded for (and agreed to pay) Butler. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after playing a game where they did not score more than 100 points. The Warriors are usually overvalued by the betting public when playing at home as the favorite as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 63 games at home when playing the points including 20 of those 31 games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month is with the Houston Rockets (567) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (534) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (533) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-33) has lost two games in a row after their 117-95 loss at home against the Timberwolves as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Minnesota (50-33) has won four games in a row and nine of their last ten contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves dominated Los Angeles in Game One by shooting 50% from behind the arc after nailing 21 of their 42 shots from 3-point range. Julius Randle hit 4 of his 6 shots from downtown. Naz Reid converted 6 of his 9 shots from distance. Jaden McDaniels converted all 3 of his 3-pointers and Mike Conley made 2 of his 3 shots from behind the arc. I expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight with the belief that it is simply not sustainable for Anthony Edwards’ four teammates in the starting lineup to come close to shooting 71.4% (15-21) with their 3-point shots. The Timberwolves are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA — but that is by making 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. The Lakers should defend the arc better tonight — they rank fifth in the league by holding their opponents to 33.9% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home at Crypto.com Arena. Minnesota may be ripe for a letdown considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by 20 or more points. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last nine contests after allowing the T-Wolves to make 51.2% of their shots. And for the second straight game, the Lakers shot less than 40% from the field. If there was a silver lining, it was that Luka Doncic continued to cook against this Minnesota team after dominating them in the playoffs last season. Doncic scored 37 points on 12 of 22 shooting which included making 5 of his 10 shots from behind the arc. With the Dallas Mavericks last postseason, Doncic scored 32.4 Points-Per-Game while making 47.3% of his shots including a 43.4% clip from behind the arc in that game five-game series en route to the NBA Finals. The Lakers posted an 18-10 record in the regular season in the 28 games Doncic played for them after the blockbuster trade with the Mavericks. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after losing two games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when continuing a home stand. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (534) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (590) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (589) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (40-43) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 120-95 loss at Orlando in their initial Play-In game on Tuesday. Miami (38-45) kept their season alive with their 109-90 upset victory at Chicago as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. The winner of this game makes the playoffs and will play at Cleveland on Sunday. The loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): It is telling that the books initially made Atlanta a 1.5-point favorite before money started coming in on the Heat. I suspect that is an overreaction to how good Miami looked against the Bulls (and how bad the Hawks looked against the Magic) — and that would be a short-term overreaction. Granted, Erik Spoelstra is a great coach — but Atlanta’s Quin Snyder is no slouch either. The Hawks enjoy a situational edge playing at home with an extra day of rest while Miami has to travel for the second time this week. Atlanta only made 38.1% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 40 games. They only converted on 19.0% of their shots from behind the arc. The Hawks are better than that. Since the beginning of March, they rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also let Orlando nail 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. While defense is not this team’s strong suit, they do rank 18th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since March. Dyson Daniels is a pesky on-the-ball defender who can make life difficult for the Heat’s Tyler Herro. At home, Atlanta is making 47.6% of their shots which is generating 118.2 Points-Per-Game. They also nail 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc on their home court. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games as an underdog of up to six points. And while this is their eighth game in the last two weeks, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. Miami played their best defensive game in their last eight contests on Wednesday by holding the Bulls to 39.8% shooting. They also converted 18 of their 33 shots from behind the arc — but they are not likely to make 54.5% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win on the road. And in their last 19 games when playing for the second time in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those contests. I don’t love the offensive profile of this team — especially now that Jimmy Butler is no longer on the team. If their 3s are not falling, they lack a reliable Plan B. They rank 27th in the NBA by pulling down 26.3% of their missed shots. They rank just 24th in getting to the free-throw line. At least when they had Butler, they had a reliable go-to scorer who could cook in isolation when they needed a bucket — and he was great at getting to the free-throw line. Miami is outside the top ten in the league by averaging only 13.7 made 3s per game — and their 36.7% shooting percentage beyond the arc also ranks outside the top ten. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when favored by up to six points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 220s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when playing a team that is winning 40-49% of their games. And while the Hawks are making 47.1% of their shots this season, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their 25 games on the road against teams who convert on at least 46% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: A 10-seed in the NBA Play-In Tournament has not ever advanced to the playoffs — and I don’t think that streak gets broken tonight. The Heat won the last meeting between these teams by a 122-112 score on March 27th — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 29 opportunities to avenge a loss. The home team has won and covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (590) plus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (589). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (680) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (679) in the Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (35-3) has won 15 games in a row after their 85-65 victory against Alabama as a 7-point favorite in their Elite Eight game on Saturday. Houston (34-4) has won 17 games in a row after their 69-50 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: There is a lot to like with this Cougars team. Three of their four losses were decided in overtime. They have lost only once since November 30th. They rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. But when talking about the elite of the four remaining elite teams, I suspect the Cougars get exposed in this showdown. (1) I do have some qualms about their resume. Who is the best team they have beaten this season? The Volunteers on Sunday? Pomeroy says so —Tennessee ranks fifth overall in his Net Adjusted Efficiency numbers. But while the Vols rank third in defense, they were only 17th on offense. Houston held the Volunteers to just 15 points in the first half and 28.8% shooting overall. While head coach Kelvin Sampson’s defense deserves much of the credit if you watched the game, then it is hard to not place some of the blame on missed jumper after missed jumper by Tennessee — and that offensive performance under their head coach Rick Barnes was not an anomaly over the years. Perhaps the Cougars’ best win was against Gonzaga in the Round of 32. Pomeroy ranks them as the eighth-best team in the nation — but while they rank sixth on offense, they are just 30th on defense. Maybe it’s Texas Tech they split their two games against in Big 12 play — Pomeroy’s laptop places them 9th in the nation. But the Red Raiders are another one of those relatively imbalanced teams that ranks fifth on offense by 39th on defense. Houston’s worst loss was by five points against Auburn — and the Tigers rank third and eighth on offense and defense according to Pomeroy. The Cougars also have a five-point loss in overtime against an Alabama team that ranks fourth and 27th in Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive rankings. They also have a loss against San Diego State — and the canary in the coal mine from that game may be that the Aztecs rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which exposes my second concern with this Houston team. (2) Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc. The Cougars are one of Sampson’s better scoring teams because they rank second in the nation by nailing 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc — but their scoring can dry up if these shots are not falling. In their loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in ten of their games this season. That will not be enough made shots against Duke — as I will discuss below. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 37.6% clip which ranks 18th in the nation. Houston ranks 282nd by making only 48.4% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark drops to a 46.7% clip on the road which ranks 289th. They are scoring -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble. (3) the Cougars lacks size. Their three tallest players in their rotation are only 6’8 — including J’Wan Roberts. I expect this potential weakness to get exploited by this Duke squad whose smallest player on the roster is 6’5. The Blue Devils will have a size advantage at every position — including Cooper Flagg at 6’9 and then the underrated Khaman Maluoch at 7’2. Houston’s size disadvantage plays a role in them ranking 207th in the nation in putting their opponent on the free-throw line. The Cougars also surrender +2.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road which ranks as the 250th biggest discrepancy in the nation when compared to their home defensive efficiency. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road against teams outside the Big 12 including not covering the point spread in five of those seven games this season. It may be telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in three of their four games against teams from the ACC in the last three seasons. The one-point spread cover was in the Sweet 16 last year in their 54-51 loss against the Blue Devils as a 3-point underdog — but Duke head coach Jon Scheyer did not have Flagg nor freshmen Kon Knueppel and Maluach on his team yet. All three are projected to be future first-round draft picks in the NBA — and Flagg should be the first player in the June draft coming up. All four teams that reached the Final Four rank in Pomeroy’s all-time rankings in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency in his database that goes back to 1997 — but it remains impressive that this Duke team only trails the 1999 Blue Devils as the best all-time using his metrics. Now that does not guarantee they cover the number in this game — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning their previous game by 15 or more points including 10 of those 14 games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Duke leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But it is the play of their defense that should help them separate against this smaller Cougars squad. The Blue Devils rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stymied the explosive Alabama offense to just a 35.4% shooting percentage — and the Tide’s 0.89 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate was their third-lowest mark of the season. Duke also won the rebounding battle by a 42-30 margin. Houston ranks 11th by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils limit their opponents to rebounding just 26.7% which ranks 44th. They also rank 18th in the nation on the road with their opponent’s shooting just 29.8% from downtown. Duke has only lost once since December as the team got better when (a) Sion James was inserted in the starting lineup for Caleb Foster in an upgrade on defense and (b) the offense began running through Flagg who continues to improve in what should be his senior year of high school. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 games on the road this season. And while the elite Houston defense holds their opponents to 38.2% shooting, Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have beaten both Auburn and Alabama previously this season — and they also beat Arizona twice. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams who are winning 80% or more of their games. And while Houston is outscoring their opponents by +15.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (680) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (536) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (535). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (60-15) has won four of their last five games after their 127-122 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New York (48-27) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests after their 105-91 victory against Philadelphia as a 13-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland outlasted the Clippers three days ago despite allowing them to make 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Cavaliers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with two days of rest. They stay at home for this one where they have a 32-5 record along with an average winning margin of +10.0 Points-Per-Game. They are mostly healthy for this nationally-televised game as only Ty Jerome is out due to an injury or load management. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points . Additionally, while New York scores 116.2 PPG this season, the Cavs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are scoring 116 or more PPG including five of those six games played at home. The Knicks are outscoring their opponents vying for +4.4 PPG — and Cleveland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG including seven of those ten games played at home. New York held the 76ers to a 42.0% field goal percentage last night which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. But rim protector Mitchell Robinson is getting tonight’s game off because of load management. The Knicks are still playing without Jalen Brunson although he is expected back perhaps by the weekend. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days including six of those seven games played on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. The Knicks have been listed as an underdog only 14 times this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season on the road when listed as an underdog from 6.5 to 12 points. And in their 6 games this season against teams winning 70% or more of their games, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks want to avenge a 142-105 loss in Cleveland the last time these two teams played on February 21st. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 opportunities for revenge this season including nine of those 13 games played on the road. 10* NBA New York-Cleveland ESPN Special with the Cleveland Cavaliers (536) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (510). THE SITUATION: Boston (55-19) has won eight games in a row — as well as 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 121-111 victory at San Antonio as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Memphis (44-30) has lost twice in a row and five of their last six contests after their 134-127 upset loss against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston has amped up their intensity as they prepare for the postseason. Since the All-Star Break, they lead the NBA in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They lead the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since the break — and they have risen to rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star Game. They may play better on the road where they have a 31-7 record with an average winning margin of +11.2 Points-Per-Game. The Celtics finish out their six-game road trip tonight having covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis is in a big funk having lost 18 of their last 25 games. Since the All-Star Break, they rank just 18th in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are only 17th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since then — and they are 21st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This team also ranks just 14th in the league in efficiency on offense in the half-court — and that spells trouble against the Celtics half-court defense. The Grizzlies stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, Memphis is just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home against teams who are winning 70% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics want to avenge a 127-121 upset loss at home against the Grizzlies as a 7-point favorite on December 7th — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge including six of of those nine games played on the road. 8* NBA Boston-Memphis ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan State (306) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 73-70 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Auburn (31-5) has won four of their last five games after their 78-65 victory against Michigan as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State found a way to rally to beat the Rebels on Friday despite losing the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin. The Spartans only pulled down five offensive rebounds which is unheard of for a Tom Izzo team. Izzo dialed up a great offensive game plan against head coach Chris Beard’s “no-middle” defense. Sparty shot 50% from the field including making 18 of their 31 shots (58.1%) inside the arc. They also made a living at the free throw line by getting to the charity stripe 22 times and making 19 of those shots. It was also very encouraging to see freshman phenom Jase Richardson score 20 points and make 4 of his 6 shots from behind the arc. He struggled in the previous round against New Mexico by scoring only 6 points. Richardson is Michigan State’s best 3-point shooter with his 42.0% shooting clip — and he jumpstarted their scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup midway through the Big Ten season. If this team can make more than 33% of their 3s, they become very tough to beat given all the other things they do well. The Spartans rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking 28th by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots and ranking eighth by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.6% of their misses. Their physical style of play on both ends of the court helps them get to the free throw line — they rank 42nd in free throw rate. Furthermore, they rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.0% shooting from behind the arc. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win including 10 of those 15 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court. And while the Tigers are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG including eight of those 11 games played on the road. Auburn continues to show some cracks in their armor against good teams in their victory against the Wolverines. They trailed by a 48-39 score with 12:26 left in the second half before going on a 39-17 run to win (and cover the spread). Maybe that means the Tigers are “back” — but it said more about that Michigan team who melted in those final 12 minutes. Take away Danny Wolf’s 9 of 18 shooting — and the other Wolverines only made 12 of 41 shots (29.2%). If you watched the game, then you know it was not defense prowess from Auburn as much ugly execution in what was sloppy play by both teams. The Tigers trailed Creighton at halftime in their previous game before getting it together in the second half — but teams that continue to live dangerously after sluggish starts tend to get burned. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 second-chance Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this Auburn defense that surrenders +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 321st-worst drop-off in the nation. They ranked 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc before Michigan went 16 of 42 (38.1%) with their 2-pointers. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 164th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.5% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 games when a four-seed or better including five of those eight games since taking over Auburn. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this month.

FINAL TAKE: Matchups make fights — and Michigan State’s three best offensive strengths with rebounding, inside shooting, and getting to the free throw line are their three biggest defensive liabilities for Auburn. The Spartans outrebound their opponents by +9.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 18 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (641) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (34-3) has won 14 games in a row after their 100-93 victory against Arizona as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 games in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Alabama (28-8) has won five of their last six games after their 113-88 victory against BYU as a 4.5-point favorite in their Sweet 16 contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke torched the Wildcats by making 60% of their shots — and that was not an outlier performance when considering they made 64% of their shots against Baylor in their previous game in this tournament. The Blue Devils lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their nine games played on a neutral court, they are scoring +3.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Cooper Flagg continues to improve in his freshman season — not only did he dish out seven assists, grab, six rebounds, and block three shots, he is developing into a dynamic scorer which unlocks the last remaining part of his game for the next level by scoring 30 points including three 3s. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, Duke leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fifth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after winning their last game including in the 13 of 20 of those games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position with every rotation player being at least 6’5 — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Crimson Tide rank 54th in the nation by pulling down 34.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 46th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 26.9% of their missed shots. Alabama outrebounds their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Crimson Tide makes 48.7% of their shots — but Duke has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against opponents who make at least 45% of their shots. And while Alabama is outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Alabama broke an NCAA Tournament record by nailing 25 shots from behind the arc against the Cougars on Thursday — but defense was not the calling card of that BYU team. Not only are the Regression Gods coming tonight, but it will be very difficult for the Crimson Tide to approach that number against the length of this Duke team. Mark Sears nailed 10 shots from distance himself — but at 6’1, he will have more difficulty taking these shots unless he goes full-on Stephon Curry and steps back even farther away from the line. Duke ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.0% shooting from behind the arc. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country while ranking 37th in the nation by taking 46.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But the secret sauce to head coach Nate Oats’ approach is that this style generates easy looks at the basket. The Crimson Tide lead the nation by making 60.1% of their shots inside the arc. That’s not going to happen against Duke who leads the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1% — and that includes them ranking second by limiting their opponents to 43.2% shooting inside the arc. But the rubber hits the road given how difficult it is to get off good shots against the Blue Devils: they lead the nation with their opponents averaging 19.2 seconds per possession which is the highest mark of all 364 Division I teams. Alabama can continue to shoot early in the shot clock — but they are likely to be lesser quality shots. An additional concern with Alabama is that in their final ten games before the Big Dance, they ranked 198th by turning the ball over in 16.9% of their possessions. Now let’s talk about that Crimson Tide defense which is the weak link in this game. On paper, they look good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allows their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots which ranks 161st in the nation — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses. Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they rank 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams. The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They have surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.  

FINAL TAKE: When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (27-9) has won five games in a row after their 91-79 upset victory as a 3-point underdog in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Auburn (30-5) has won three of their last four games after their 82-70 victory against Clemson as a 9-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn is beginning to show some cracks in their armor which may make it very hard to easily beat (and cover point spreads) good opponents like Michigan — especially given the Wolverines’ size down low. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this defense that surrenders +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 330th-worst dropoff in the nation. They rank 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 186th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. The Wolverines outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 16 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including three of those nine games played on the road. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after when playing with five or six days of rest. They got by Creighton last week by making 46.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But both Johni Broome and Dylan Caldwell struggled against the Bluejays’ Ryan Kalkbrenner who is a taller seven-footer. Broome only scored 8 points on 4 of 13 shooting while Caldwell scored just 6 points and pulled down four rebounds. Now here comes Michigan twin-towers with both Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin presenting matchup problems at 7’0 and 7’1 respectively. The Wolverines limit their opponents to taking just 22.9% of their shots at the rim which is in the lowest three percentile in the nation. Their opponents only make 59.0% of these shots at the rim which ranks in the lowest 20% as well. Michigan is playing outstanding defense after holding the Aggies to just 38.0% shooting. They have held five of their last seven opponents to not better than 38.7% shooting. On the road, they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wolf and Goldin combined for 37 points and 31 rebounds against a stout Texas A&M frontline. Those two will be challenged by the Tigers’ tough frontline — so it may come down to the play of guards. The Wolverines have won all seven of their games when point guard Trey Donaldson scores at least 16 points. Michigan ranks 15th in the nation by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc and they rank 76th by pulling down 33.4% of their misses — so they can exploit the cracks in Auburn armor on defense. The glaring weakness for this Wolverines team is that they rank 324th by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions. But they have lowered that turnover rate to 17.9% in their last ten games which ranks 255th over that span. And the Tigers only rank 232nd in the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 15.8% of their opponent's possessions. Michigan is battle-tested after beating Maryland along with Wisconsin and Purdue for a second time in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Their 13 wins by four points or less this season can be seen as a negative — but it prepared them for this moment. Auburn is outscoring their opponents by +14.4 PPG — but the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 or more PPG. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Michigan has covered the point spread in all 7 of their tournament games played on a neutral court this season.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when a four-seed or better including five of those seven games since taking over Auburn. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (27-8) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-64 victory against Drake as a 7.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Arkansas (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 75-66 upset victory against St. John’s as a 7-point underdog on Saturday in their second-round game of the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks benefited from a Red Storm team that could not hit the side of the barn Saturday afternoon as they only made 28.0% of their shots from the field. That was the best defensive effort for them all season — but it may be more of a statement about that Rick Pitino team and their lack of scoring options. Arkansas has scored two straight upset victories in this tournament after upsetting Kansas in their opening-round game. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Head coach John Calipari expects to get Adou Thiero back from injury tonight — but I still suspect their bubble gets burst tonight. I appreciate that his team has played better lately after enduring injuries for much of the year — but I still don’t like the profile of this team since they don't generate additional possessions and their shot volume is low. They rank 231st in the nation by pulling down 28.1% of their missed shots — and they rank 150th by forcing turnovers in only 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — especially if their opponent is not missing their shots. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 7-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15-2 record against their remaining opponents. They have beaten two Sweet 16 teams in Michigan and Kentucky — but they have lost to six teams who made the Sweet 16 with setbacks against Ole Miss twice, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. On the road, they surrender +2.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Their perimeter defense is of concern in those games with their opponents making 34.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 169th in the nation. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams outside the SEC. Texas Tech may get 3-point shooter Chance McMillian back tonight who is listed as questionable with his upper body injury. I am assuming he does not play and will be pleasantly surprised if he can take the court for the first time in this tournament for head coach Grant McCasland. The Red Raiders rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 37th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics — and since 2021, all but one National Champion ranked in his top 21 in offense and top 44 in defense. Texas Tech is one of 12 teams remaining in the field that meet those baseline standards — and the Razorbacks' offense which ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency keeps them out of that group. McCasland’s team is led by floor-spacing big man J.T. Toppin and pass-first point guard Elijah Hawkins. Another power rankings system other than Pomeroy’s puts them seventh in the nation — and they are ninth in the country in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. For comparison's sake, Arkansas ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers. They rank third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +5.2 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Red Raiders are a great road team because they generate extra scoring possessions and protect the basketball. They rank 59th in the nation by pulling down 33.9% of their missed shots. They rank 24th by only turning the ball over in just 14.5% of their possessions. They are also proficient with their 3-point shooting. Texas Tech ranks 31st in the nation by making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 58th by taking 44.9% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Raiders have beaten Houston, BYU, and Arizona who all made the Sweet 16 — and they only have three losses against Sweet 16 teams with two losses to Arizona and a setback to Houston. The Razorbacks make 46.4% of their shots and hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on the road this season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (33-3) has won 13 games in a row after their 89-66 victory against Baylor as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (24-12) has won four of their last five games after their 87-83 win against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Sunday night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke was dominant against the Bears last Sunday. They nailed 64.4% of their shots and scored at an incredible 1.51 Points-Per-Possession rate. Cooper Flagg appears completely recovered from the injury that kept him out of the ACC Championship Game. They have won their first two games in the Big Dance by 67 combined points. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, they lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning their last game by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position — they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 44th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 27.2% of their missed shots. Arizona outrebounds their opponents by +8.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wildcats hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — but Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against opponents holding their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. And while Arizona is outscoring their opponents by +9.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They overcame a near-disastrous 19-4 deficit to the Ducks early in that game — and Caleb Love scored 29 points in the victory. The Wildcats go as Love goes — but he can be enigmatic. On the road, Arizona scores -5.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which ranks as the 306th worst dropoff in the nation. They also fall to 50th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. Duke holds their opponents to 61.7 PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Blue Devils’ 69-55 upset victory against the Wildcats in Tucson on November 22nd as a 1.5-point underdog. Duke’s size was too much for Arizona as they won the rebuilding battle by a 43-30 margin and held Love to 3 of 13 shooting with him making only 1 of his 9 shots from behind the arc. The Blue Devils have improved significantly since that game — the offense now runs through Flagg and Sion James replaced Caleb Foster in the starting lineup in a boost to the offense. At 6’4, Love will likely struggle with the size of James and Tyrese Proctor who are both 6’6. The Wildcats lost 7’2 Motiejus Krivas to a season-ending injury in early December — and the rotation of Henri Veesar and Tobe Awaka has not been less effective in his absence but they lost size in the necessary adjustment. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (612) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (611) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (17-17) has won three of their last four games after their 85-83 upset victory at SMU as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. North Texas (26-8) has won three of their last four games after their 65-63 victory against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State is a dangerous team that upset Iowa State earlier in the season. After playing their second-round game in this tournament on the road, they return home where they have a 13-3 record — and they score +8.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Oklahoma State has a good team profile since they work hard at generating extra possessions. They rank 36th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank 88th by pulling down 32.9% of their missed shots. They also rank 19th in free throw rate — and this is a particular weakness for the Mean Green. North Texas ranks 293rd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and it gets even worse on the road where they rank 332nd in the nation in that metric. This contest will be a contrast in styles. Oklahoma State plays at the 16th fastest rate in the country with their games averaging 71.6 adjusted possessions. The Mean Green’s games average 60.4 adjusted possessions which is the second-fewest in the nation. Playing at home, I think the Cowboys will be able to coax this game to play out the way they want it because North Texas turns the ball over in 18.1% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 197th. The Mean Green also ranks 285th in the nation by only making 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they are scoring -7.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. North Texas is a very good defensive team that just held the Red Wolves to 36.9% shooting — but that was the best defensive effort in their last three games. The Mean Green have not covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cowboys allow their opponents to make 45.7% of their shots — but North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (612) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (611). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (865) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (866) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (23-11) has won two of their last three games after their 71-64 upset victory against North Carolina as a 1-point underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Iowa State (25-9) has won three of their last four games after their 82-55 victory against Lipscomb as a 14-point favorite in their opening game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State nailed 58.3% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing for the second time in three days. The season-ending groin injury to their floor, general Keshon Gilbert, will probably catch up with this Iowa State team tonight. He was their second-leading scorer at 13.4 Points-Per-Game — and he was adding 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. The Cyclones had a 2-3 record in the five games he missed late in the season. Iowa State wants to force turnovers as they rank 12th in the nation with a 21.9% defensive turnover rate — but good luck accomplishing that against this Rebels team that ranks third in the nation by turning the ball over in only 13.0% of their possessions. Despite shooting the ball pretty well from distance, the Cyclones only generated 28.8% of their points from 3-pointers so I worry about how this team will play the math game if they are not able to generate additional pressure from forcing turnovers. Iowa State does not play great half-court defense either — especially on the road where they surrender +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 166th in the nation on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. On the road, they allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road and 50.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 227th and 125th in the nation respectively. Mississippi should build off the momentum of upsetting the Tar Heels as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up win. Ole Miss is certainly battle-tested after surviving the SEC meat-grinder this season. The Rebels beat Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play while also registering impressive victories against BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play. This is a balanced team that ranks 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they score +4.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions. Iowa State turned the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions in conference play since the beginning of February — and most of those games were when they still had Gilbert at the point. Look for head coach Chris Beard to amp up the fast pace that the Rebels like to play to challenge the depth of the Cyclones who deployed a short bench even before the Gilbert injury. The Cyclones do outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds Per Game — but Mississippi has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. Iowa State outscores their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but the Rebels have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including eight of those eleven games on the road. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court as an underdog or a pick ‘em. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (865) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (28-7) has won four of their last five games after their 77-62 victory as an 18.5-point favorite against Wofford in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. UCLA (23-10) has won three of their last four games after their 72-47 victory as a 6-point favorite against Utah State in the Round of 64 of the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: This situation did not particularly stand out at first glance (a common theme today — I do like tomorrow’s card much better, FYI) — but upon my final deep dive late this afternoon, I have concluded that this is a very bad matchup for what is otherwise a good Bruins team. In theory, UCLA is a dangerous underdog since they will slow the game down and do the things I look for in creating extra scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. The Bruins rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also pull down 32.8% of their missed shots which ranks 91st in the nation. But the Volunteers are a tough foe who are well-versed in what head coach Mick Cronin’s team will attempt to do. Tennessee is not going to mind the slow pace at all since they love playing grinders with their big bodies and perhaps the most physical defense in the country. They protect the basketball by turning the ball over only 15.8% of the time which ranks 85th in the nation. Admittedly, the Volunteers' defensive rebounding numbers are not great with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their missed shots — but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. For the record, Tennessee held Auburn — and a better offensive rebounding team than UCLA — to rebounding only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. What worries me about the Bruins even more is that their defense has lagged lately. Over the last month, their opponent’s effective field goal percentage dropped to 175th in the nation. Defense is the weakness of this UCLA team — and scoring is typically the Achilles’ heel for Barnes’ teams at Tennessee. They rank 128th on the season with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. The problem is their defense inside the arc where they rank 187th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 51.1% of their 2-pointers. UCLA did hold the Aggies to 30% shooting on Thursday in what was the best defensive effort in their last 27 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the 6 games this season when they held their opponent to no higher than 33% shooting. In the 22 games with Cronin as their head coach when they held their opponent to no better than 33% shooting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 5 games on the road this season after a win by 15 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 25 games in Cronin’s tenure when they were on the road for the second time in three days. On the road, the Bruins surrender +1.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions with the problem continuing to be their interior defense. They rank 290th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 55.0% of their shots inside the arc. But of even greater concern is UCLA’s scoring decline away from home as they are scoring -8.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. While they rank 52nd when playing at home by making 57.1% of their shots inside the arc, they plummet to a ranking of 230th on the road by hitting only 48.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 150s. This UCLA team also loses hidden points from the free throw line. They only rank 190th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. And when they are on the line, they rank 231st by making just 70.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. The Volunteers see their opponents make 73.7% of their free throws which ranks 269th — so they will be pleasantly surprised to see the Bruins miss a few more of these shots. UCLA also ranks 209th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and Tennessee ranks 31st on the road in getting to the free throw line. In expected close games, spotting a defensive juggernaut like the Vol's shots and points on the free throw line is a recipe to not cover the point spread. This is the second-best offensive team in Barnes’ era at Tennessee as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 61st in the nation. They rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. And this scoring attack is trending up with the recent emergence of Jordan Gaines who has scored 15.5 Points-Per-Game in the last six contests. But the play on the other end of the court continues to be the strength of the Volunteers. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank third in opponent effective goal percentage — and they also rank third by holding their opponents to just 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The teams who shoot better closer to the basket have a better chance against this Tennessee team — and that is simply not UCLA. The Volunteers look to reach the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and tenth time with Barnes at the helm — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: The Volunteers are battled-tested having gone through the gauntlet of the SEC this season that produced a record 14 teams into the Big Dance — and they also registered high-quality non-conference victories against Louisville, Baylor, and Illinois. They are one of just five teams to beat Auburn this season. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams outside the SEC. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: St. John’s (31-4) has won 10 straight games after their 83-53 victory against Nebraska-Omaha as an 18.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Arkansas (21-13) has won four of their last five games after their 79-72 upset victory against Kansas as a 5-point underdog in their first-round contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED STORM MINUS THE POINTS: Say what you want about Rick Pitino, but the guy is a fantastic basketball coach. In his second year at St. John’s, his team has won 20 of their last 21 games — and their four losses were by a combined 14 points. The weakness of his team is shooting — but his style of play compensates for that by being one of the best squads in the country in generating shot volume. They do not waste their chances — they rank 61st in the country by turning the ball over only 15.5% of the time. They get tons of second-chance scoring opportunities by ranking ninth in the nation by pulling down 37.4% of their missed shots. And they may be the best defensive team in the country. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they claim the top spot in the country in that metric when playing on the road where they surrender a whopping -7.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank sixth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and now they face a Razorbacks team that had turned the ball over in ten straight games before playing the Jayhawks on Thursday. St. John’s has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win including nine of those thirteen games played on the road. The Red Storm have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games including seven of those eight games on the road. Arkansas does make 46.5% of their shots — but St. John’s has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots including six of those nine games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Big East. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win including five of those eight games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. Head coach John Calipari’s team is nearly the polar opposite of the Johnnies since they do not rely on shot volume. They rank 244th in the nation by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots — and they rank 135th by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — and that is a recipe for disaster against such a good defensive team like the Red Storm. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 6-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15- 2 record against their remaining opponents. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against opponents outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when favored. 10* CBB Arkansas-St. John’s CBS-TV Special with the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (25-8) had won four games in a row before their 81-80 upset loss to Michigan as a 4-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Saturday. Grand Canyon (26-7) has won three games in a row after their 89-82 victory as a 4.5-point favorite in the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: Maryland is disappointed in not winning the Big Ten tournament — but this is still a team poised to make a deep run in the Big Dance. The “Crab Five” has one of the best starting units in the country. It starts with their frontline of Derik Queen and Julian Reese who are two bruisers at 6’10 and 6’9 and both around 250 pounds. Queen has become a double-double machine after pulling off at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in eight of his last ten games. These two big men are flanked by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and SeltonMiguel who combined to nail 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc in the final ten games of the regular season. Maryland allowed Michigan to make 47% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. But the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games under head coach Kevin Willard after losing to a fellow Big Ten rival. Maryland is a balanced team that does many things well that should keep them protected from getting upset in these early rounds. They rank 27th in the nation by nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They are also above average by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They protect the basketball as well by turning the ball over just 14.5% of the time which ranks 22nd in the nation. On defense, the Terrapins rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 37th. They are also strong at defending the perimeter by ranking 25th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from behind the arc. They also have a hidden strength regarding when they take shots and when their opponents take shots. Generally, teams that are quicker to launch a shot attempt are taking better quality shots since those opportunities become more sparse as the shot clock continues. Maryland ranks 29th in the nation by averaging 16.1 seconds per shot — and their opponents average 18.0 seconds per shot attempt which is the 262nd slowest mark in the nation. On the road, the Terrapins improve their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking from 25th overall to 14th best in the nation — they are scoring +5.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Their 37.6% shooting from behind the arc on the road ranks 17th. Maryland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road, They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set at 150s. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Head coach Bryce Drew’s team upset Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64 last season but his club this year does not have as impressive a profile — and the Terrapins are much less vulnerable than that Gaels team was. The Antelopes do generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and attempting to force turnovers — but Maryland will make it tough to accomplish those tasks. But a big weakness of this Grand Canyon team is that they rank 295th on the road by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions — and that is a significant problem against the Terrapins. They also only make 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which ranks 331st in the nation. The Antelopes score -3.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They also rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road which may be fine for the WAC but it is another vulnerability against an opponent like Maryland. The Terrapins hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. The Antelopes have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games outside the WAC.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has covered the point spread in 20 of their 31 games under Willard when laying double-digits including in nine of those 13 occasions this season. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (780) minus the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (779) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (21-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 85-73 loss to Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Baylor (19-14) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-74 loss to Texas Tech as a 6.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Mississippi State made only 36.4% of their shots last week against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 14 contest. The Bulldogs should bounce back on the offensive end of the floor this afternoon since they are a good offensive team. They rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have good size which helps them rank 44th in the nation by making 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 57th in the nation by pulling down 34.1% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounding travels — and Mississippi State ranks 26th in the nation on the road by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots. And while they can struggle with their focus when playing defense, their intensity does ratchet up when playing on the road where they are surrendering -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 37th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range. And in their last 15 games on the road against teams outside the SEC, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. Mississippi State is the type of team that Baylor struggles against. Twelve of the Bears’ 14 losses were against teams ranking in the top 25 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor is a mediocre defensive club this season. They rank 129th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 49.8% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 234th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.2% of their missed shots. The Bears rank 56th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 108th in that metric when playing on the road where they are surrendering +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 314th on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.9% of their missed shots. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. The Tigers make 45.1% of their shots — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court including all four games when favored by six points or less or listed as a pick ‘em. 10* CBB Baylor-Mississippi State CBS-TV Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (780) minus the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (779). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-San Diego Tritons (769) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (770) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-San Diego (30-4) has won 15 games in a row after their 75-61 victory as a 5.5-point favorite against UC-Irvine in the championship game of the Big West Conference Tournament last Saturday. Michigan (25-9) has won three games in a row after their 59-53 upset victory against Wisconsin in the championship game of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRITONS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine outlasted the Anteaters on Saturday by holding them to 35.1% shooting which was actually their worst defensive effort in their last five games. UC-San Diego has held five straight opponents to no better than 37.3% shooting — and those five opponents have made only 39.1% of their shots resulting in 61.6 Points-Per-Game. The Tritons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games including twelve of those fifteen games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after beating a fellow Big West Conference rival including seven of those nine games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning three or more games in a row. UC-San Diego ranks second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and they lead the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This is a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines since they rank 328th in the nation by turning the ball over 19.8% of the time. And while Michigan’s size helps them outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Tritons have covered the point spread in 12 of their 13 games this season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. On the road, UC-San Diego has a 17-2 record with an average winning margin of +17.9 PPG. They hold their opponents to -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They rank 13th in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. When on the road, they are limiting their opponents to making just 39.1% of their shots resulting in 61.6 PPG. The Tritons also rank 17th in the nation on the road by making 55.8% of their shots inside the arc. This is a team with a great profile to pull off upsets in the Big Dance. They make the most of their possessions by ranking sixth in the nation by turning the ball over just 13.4% of the time. They also rank eighth in the nation by taking 49.6% of their shots from behind the arc. UC-San Diego has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. The Wolverines do make 47.4% of their shots — but the Tritons have covered the point spread in 13 of their 15 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Michigan benefited from the Badgers only making 22.1% of their shots on Sunday — that was their best defensive effort of the season which may speak more about Wisconsin’s poor shooting than their defense. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after beating a fellow Big Ten rival. There have been 19 times in head coach Dustin May’s coaching career when his team held an opponent to no better than 33% shooting — and they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those following games. On the road, Michigan is scoring -1.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. It is telling that the Wolverines only outscored their conference opponents by +0.4 PPG which betrays their 17-6 record.

FINAL TAKE: May’s teams in his coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. The Tritons have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season played on a neutral court. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-San Diego Tritons (769) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (765) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (766) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (30-3) has won seven games in a row and 18 of their last 19 contests after their 63-48 victory against Bradley as a 4-point favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 9th. Missouri (22-11) has lost four of their last five games after their 95-81 loss to Florida as an 8.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Drake head coach Ben McCollum has constructed a style of play that is ideal for a mid-major to pull off upsets in the NCAA Tournament. They play at the slowest pace in the country — both the 22.0 seconds they take per possession and the 58.9 adjusted possessions they average per game represent the slowest marks in the nation. They also emphasize generating more possessions. They rank 10th in the nation by forcing 22.1% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 17th in the nation by pulling down 36.0% of their missed shots. This approach has been effective as they beat both their power conference opponents this season, Vanderbilt and Kansas State. Drake has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against opponents winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Tigers outscore their opponents by +10.7 Points-Per-Game, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games this season against teams who were outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Drake will play this game with confidence and should build off their momentum since they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating a fellow conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning two or more games in a row. Their style of play travels since it is not dependent on shooting the ball well. The Bulldogs have a 16-1 record on the road with an average winning margin of +8.6 Points-Per-Game. They score +2.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road — and they hold their opponents to -2.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. Drake has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. They have also covered the point spread in all 6 of their games this season as an underdog. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs since the Tigers are an offensive-focused team that can lose focus on defense. Missouri wants to go at a fast pace — the 16.5 seconds they average per possession ranks 55th in the nation. They make 48.5% of their shots which results in 84.5 PPG — but Drake has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Expect the Bulldogs to win the tempo battle which will frustrate this Missouri. The Tigers do crash the glass to get extra scoring possessions as they rank 66th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. But Drake defends its defensive glass as they rank 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 25.8% of their missed shots. I don’t think Missouri flips the switch after stumbling into this tournament since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after losing their last game. And while they have played nine straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They allowed the Gators to make 61.8% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort of the season. While I often think outlier efforts like that warrant a visit from the Regression Gods, the Tigers have seen six of their last nine opponents make at least 50% of their shots. Their last five opponents have made 50.2% of their shots resulting in 90.4 PPG.  Missouri ranks 71st in the nation and ninth in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 300th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.2% of their missed shots. They rank 239th in the nation in defensive free throw rate — and Drake ranks 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. On the road, the Tigers allow their opponents to make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 81.8 PPG. They surrender +2.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 350th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and they rank 339th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 324th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 56.9% of their shots inside the arc. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Underdog of the Year is with the Drake Bulldogs (765) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (766). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (710) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (709) in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (19-15) had won two games in a row before their 94-89 loss to Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Xavier (21-11) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 89-87 loss to Marquette as a 2.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is a high-ceiling but low-floor squad. They have 15 losses this season — but they are also quite battle-tested after a grueling SEC campaign that features 14 teams that made the Big Dance. The Longhorns do have three high-profile victories against Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M — and all three of those accomplishments are more impressive than anything the Musketeers have done this season. Texas has four capable scorers who average double-digits led by freshman Trey Johnson who scores 19.8 Points-Per-Game. After only taking eight shots in their loss to the Volunteers last week, head coach Rodney Terry should make sure the team works their offense around him tonight. The Longhorns allowed the Volunteers to make 50% of their shots in that loss which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. But Texas has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up loss. In one of the power rating systems I examine, the Longhorns rank 49th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency — and they rise to ranking 31st in the nation using those metrics when playing on the road. They improve to 39th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they surrender -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their improved defensive play on the road comes from their perimeter defense which ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 140s. I do concede that I don’t love the profile of this team. They can be too reliant on midrange shots with their four scorers working in isolation. Terry does not have his team operate from the 3-point or the rim philosophy as ardently as many of his peers. But he has recruited talent especially Johnson who could be a top-five lottery pick in the NBA draft later this summer. At least the Longhorns usually get the most out of their possessions since they rank eighth in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.4% of their possessions. Texas is also not great at creating extra possessions from forcing turnovers or pounding the offensive glass — although their 29.8% offensive rebounding rate is better than Xavier’s mark. But the Musketeers profile is even worse. Xavier ranks 316th in the nation by pulling down 25.2% of their missed shots. They also ran 147th in the country by forcing turnovers in only 17.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Granted, they rank sixth in the country by making 38.6% of their shots from behind the arc — but if these shots are not falling, their best Plan B to get points is to get to the free throw line, which is a precarious way to live. In their three games played on a neutral court, the Musketeers only made 35.9% of their 3s. Xavier enters the Big Dance playing its best basketball of the season — but competing in the Big East is not nearly the same as the meat grinder that was the SEC this year. Their only Quad One victory this season was against Marquette — but the Longhorns played 12 games against ten SEC teams since the beginning of 2025 that rank higher according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. The Musketeers rank 37th in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers — and they drop to 54th in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road — and they surrender +2.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Interior defense is the issue — which is why I think the playmakers of the Longhorns will have success. Xavier ranks 99th in near proximity Points-Per-Possession allowed — and they rank 201st on the road by allowing their opponents to make 53% of their shots inside the arc. In the last month of the regular season despite their winning run, the Musketeers ranked 254th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with the culprit being this interior defense as their opponents made 55.6% of their shots inside the arc. Xavier has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games in March including 4 of their 5 games in the Big Dance with Terry as their head coach. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (710) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (709). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (562). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (55-13) has won nine of their last 10 games after their 113-107 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Milwaukee (39-28) has won two straight games after their 126-119 victory against Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win on the road. Three have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. They continue the road trip they started on Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for the third time in five days. The Thunder are tough to beat because they are so good on defense. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are even better now that Chet Holmgren is healthy and back on the court. With Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, they have twin towers protecting their rim — and usually at least one of them is on the court at all times. Oklahoma City leads the NBA by giving up only 43.6 Points-Per-Game inside the paint. But this team also works very hard on the defensive end of the court. They also lead the league by contesting 19.1 shot attempts per game from behind the arc — and that represents just under 50% of the 38.8 shot attempts their opponents take per game. The Thunder do have some players questionable tonight with Jalen Williams being the biggest name — but they have a good bench to help out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road when favored by up to six points. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 230 or higher including covering the point spread in 8 of those 9 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams from the Eastern Conference including 10 of those 15 games on the road. Milwaukee nailed 54.4% of their shots against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against fellow Central Division rivals. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They are still playing without Bobby Portis who is in the middle of his long suspension. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 230s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 70% or more of their games including failing to cover the point spread in all 4 of those games played at home. The Thunder are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 PPG — and the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG including failing to cover the point spread in 6 of those 7 games played at home. And while Oklahoma City is only giving up 107.0 PPG, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not surrender more than 108.0 PPG including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 games played at home.  

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder won the last meeting between these two teams by a 125-96 score on February 3rd. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (638) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (637) in the Championship Game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (25-7) has won 10 straight games after their 68-55 victory against Seattle as a 3-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Friday. Grand Canyon (25-7) has won eight of their last nine games after their 75-66 victory against Cal-Baptist as an 8.5-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Frankly, Utah Valley is a team that only wanted to endorse when playing at home during the regular season given how disparate their home/road splits are. But Grand Canyon shares a similar profile of playing much better at home than on the road. I like this situation for the Wolverines — and I think the market is either undervaluing them or overvaluing the Antelopes in this spot given the point spread. This is a team that has won 20 of their last 21 games — they have lost only one time since December 14th. They lead the WAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 18th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line which is a reliable way to score baskets. Utah Valley is also a very good defensive team. They rank ninth in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. And led by the 6’10 Carter Welling, they also rank 15th by blocking 14.2% of their opponent’s shots. They are also one of the best teams in the nation in preventing 3-point shots. They rank 23rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking only 33.0% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to the 39.0% national average. The Wolverines should build off their momentum since they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after beating a fellow WAC rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in three days or less. They handcuffed Seattle last night to just a 36.4% field goal percentage — they have held their last five opponents to just 35.2% shooting which has resulted in only 59.4 Points-Per-Game. They have also nailed 49.8% of their shots over that span resulting in 77.2 PPG. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing for the second time in three days or less. I don’t like the matchup for the Antelopes. Admittedly, I do like teams who create extra possessions. The Antelopes lead the WAC by rebounding 33.4% of their missed shots — and they rank fourth in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.7% of their opponent’s possessions. But the Wolverines are stingy in both these aspects of the Four Factors. They rank second in the WAC by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 28.0% of their missed shots — and they also rank second in the conference by only turning the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions. Given that is so to score inside against Utah Valley, Grand Canyon may have to rely on their 3-point shooting tonight — but they rank 335th in the nation on the road by making only 29.0% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 311th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.1% of their possessions. The Antelopes have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 140s. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to 41.1% shooting overall, Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season meetings after the Antelopes won the rematch at home by a 75-57 score on February 1st — but Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Utah Valley Wolverines (638) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UC-San Diego Tritons (866) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (867) in the Semifinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-San Diego (28-4) enters the Big West Conference Tournament on a 13-game winning streak after closing out their regular season with a 68-577 victory at UC-Davis last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (21-12) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 78-72 upset victory against CS-Northridge as a 4-point underdog last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRITONS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-San Diego should just continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win including ten of those thirteen games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after beating a fellow Big West rival. This is their second game since last Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing for just the second time in eight days. The Tritons are a reliable road team with a 15-2 record away from home with an average winning margin of +13.0 Points-Per-Game. They excel in basketball characteristics that travel well. They are second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponents’ possessions — and they lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.8% of their opponents’ possessions when playing on the road. This is an area where the Gauchos are vulnerable since they rank 259th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.3% of their possessions. UC-San Diego also plays tough half-court defense on the road by holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting which is resulting in 63.9 PPG — and they are surrendering -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Third, the Tritons lead the Big West by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc in conference play. Converting these reliable shots helps them rank 16th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%. UC-San Diego has covered the point spread 13 of their last 16 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Additionally, I am comfortable laying the double-digits despite this game being played on a neutral court since they have covered the point spread in 12 of their 16 games this season when laying 10 or more points. UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six of those seven games played on the road. I don’t like the profile of this team in tournament play since they live-or-die by the 3-point shot. The Gauchos are dangerous because they rank fifth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Tritons have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams making 37% or more of their 3s. And while UC-Santa Barbara has a 46.9% field goal percentage overall this season, UC-San Diego has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams who make 45% of their shots including all seven of those games on the road. If the Gauchos are not making their 3s, then they lack a reliable Plan B. UC-Santa Barbara ranks 261st in the nation by pulling down only 27.1% of their missed shots — and they are only rebounding 26.1% of their misses in conference play. Furthermore, they rank 157th by forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their opponents’ possessions — and that mark drops to 17.0% in conference play. On the road, they are making only 43.8% of their shots which is resulting in 69.4 PPG — and they are scoring -2.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road. The Tritons hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting this season — and UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are not allowing their opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. And while UC-San Diego is outscoring their opponents by +18.3 PPG overall, the Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Santa Barbara got swept by the Tritons this season after a 77-63 loss on the road as a 10-point favorite on January 23rd. They only made 5 of their 23 shots (21.7%) of their 3s in that game — and they turned the ball over 15 times representing 22.1% of their possessions. In UC-San Diego’s 84-76 win on the road in December, the Gauchos turned the ball 18 times on 26% of their possessions. 25* CBB Big West Conference Game of the Year with UC-San Diego Tritons (866) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Colorado Bears (630) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (843) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (24-8) has won five games in a row after their 76-52 victory against Weber State as an 11.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Sunday. Montana State (15-17) has won three games in a row after their 80-60 upset victory against Idaho State as a 1.5-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): We were on Idaho State last night — but they ran into a buzzsaw in this Montana State team who shot a season-high 63.5% from the field. And the Bengals could not hit the side of a barn either as they only made 33.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in the Bobcats' last 29 contests. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods tonight after Montana State played their best game of the season. As it is, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a straight-up win. I do not like the profile of this team since they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Montana State ranks 351st of 364 Division I teams by only rebounding 21.0% of their missed shots — and that mark drops to 20.7% in conference play. They also rank 298th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark drops to 14.3% in conference play. The Bobcats have a 4-14 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG. They are only making 44.4% of their shots on the road resulting in just 69.1 PPG — and they are scoring -3.1 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. They also allow their opponents to make 45.2% of their shots on the road — and they are surrendering +5.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog (all of which were on the road). Northern Colorado has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Bears rank seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. Northern Colorado has been lax with their play on defense when playing at home this season — they rank 352nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home but still have a 10-2 record in those games. They do tighten things up on the defensive end of the court when on the road as they are surrendering a whopping -13.5 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road versus playing at home. The Bears have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Montana State wants to avenge a 73-66 loss on the road at Northern Colorado as a 6-point underdog — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for revenge. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Northern Colorado Bears (630) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (843). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Idaho State Bengals (844) minus the point(s) versus the Montana State Bobcats (843) in the Quarterfinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Idaho State (15-14) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in an 82-79 upset loss at home against Northern Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Monday. Montana State (14-17) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 win against Idaho as a 5-point favorite last Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): Idaho State allowed Northern Arizona to make 57.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. But the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. Despite the loss, this team has made 47.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 78.2 Points-Per-Game which is +3.4 PPG above their season average. Idaho State also ranks seventh in the nation by pulling down 38.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the nation by rebounding 39.6% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They are outscoring their opponents by +2.5 PPG when playing on the road. They also rank second in the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. They are surrendering -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they covered the point spread in all five of those games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Montana State played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Vandals to just 36.7% shooting last week. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have to cover the point spread in all five of those games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a fellow Big Sky rival. I do not like the profile of this team since they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Montana State ranks 357th of 364 Division I teams by only rebounding 21.1% of their missed shots — and that mark drops to 20.7% in conference play. They also rank 307th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 15.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark drops to 14.3% in conference play. The Bobcats have a 3-14 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG. They are only making 43.4% of their shots on the road resulting in just 68.4 PPG — and they are scoring -3.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. They also allow their opponents to make 46% of their shots on the road — and they are surrendering +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog (all of which were on the road). They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning 51-60% of their games (all of which were on the road).

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games but the Bobcats won the most recent meeting by a 74-69 score as a 4-point home favorite on February 15th. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games this season when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Idaho State Bengals (844) minus the point(s) versus the Montana State Bobcats (843). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (812) plus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (811) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (23-9) has won four games in a row after their 77-74 victory against Marshall as an 8.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. South Alabama (21-10) closed out their regular season on a two-game winning streak and five wins in their last six games after a 65-42 victory against Louisiana as a 12.5-point favorite back on February 28th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: South Alabama may be the underdog in this game but they have the advantage of getting more than a week off after claiming the top seed in the Sun Belt Conference tournament. Long layoffs like that can negatively impact some teams — but I think it will energize this Jaguars’ team given their style of play. South Alabama ranks 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions. This skill helped them lead the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just 31.9% shooting in their final regular season game last week. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 18 of 26 games under head coach Richie Riley when they held their last opponent to no more than 55 points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after holding their last opponent to no higher than 33.3% shooting. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. And in their last 9 games after a win by 15 or more points, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. Away from home, they are surrendering -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home. They rank tenth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. They also have the 15th-best defensive free throw rate when playing on the road. They also rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are scoring +1.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Forcing turnovers is a skill that travels — and South Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em under Riley. Arkansas State is outscoring their opponents by +9.9 Points-Per-Game — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. This is a battle of styles with the Red Wolves playing at the second-fastest pace in the conference and averaging 64 shots per game. South Alabama plays at the slowest pace in the Sun Belt Conference — and they usually win the tempo battle as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. Arkansas State surrenders +12.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road rather than at home — and they are giving up +4.3 more PPG when playing on the road above their season average. They rank 314th in the country in putting their opponents on the free throw line when playing on the road. They only make 42.1% of their shots when playing on the road as that clip is brought down by ranking 283rd in the nation by making only 30.5% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em under head coach Bryan Hodgson — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their 4 games played on a neutral court this season.  

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama swept the two regular season games between these two teams — and it should fire up this Jaguars team that they are the underdogs in this third matchup. The Red Wolves only committed five turnovers in the first meeting — but South Alabama shot 50% from behind the arc in a 76-62 win at home. In the rematch, the Jaguars pulled off a 60-56 upset victory as an 8-point road underdog on February 19th by forcing 19 turnovers in 28.8% of Arkansas State’s possessions. The nature of conference tournament play does not offer Hodgson much time to make adjustments from South Alabama’s defensive pressure in that second game. The Red Wolves have had two opportunities to avenge an upset loss this season — and they failed to cover the point spread in both games. They have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games in their two seasons under Hodgson when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the South Alabama Jaguars (812) plus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (842) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (841). THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-8) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after an 80-57 victory at Air Force on Tuesday. Colorado State (21-9) has won six games in a row after their 83-56 victory against San Jose State as a 16.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: This is one of the better squads for Boise State under head coach Leon Rice. They have a legitimate point guard again after bringing in San Jose State’s Alvaro Cardenas who is averaging 6.8 Assists-Per-Game. The offense is led by the 6’8 Tyson Degenhart who is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game. Rice also decided to lift the redshirt of freshman Pearson Carmichael who was the two-time basketball Player of the Year in Oregon because the team needs his outside shooting — he is making 35.9% of his 3-pointers. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up victory. They return home where they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They enjoy a 13-1 record at home with an average winning margin of +21.6 PPG. On defense, they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while holding their opponents to -11.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. Colorado State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting — but Boise State ranks 44th in the nation by holding their guests to just 29.6% shooting when playing on their home court. Rice’s defensive approach is to deny shots at the rim and limit transition opportunities. The Broncos rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 22.6% of their missed shots. They also rank 19th in the nation on their home court in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +9.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Led by Degenhart, they rank 11th in the nation at home by making 60.2% of their shots inside the arc. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 40.4% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last five contests. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a straight-up win at home. And while Colorado State has beaten up on their lesser competition, their best win this season was at home against this Broncos team on January 22nd in a 75-72 victory as a 1-point underdog. Boise State is outscoring their opponents by +10.3 PPG — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. I don’t love the profile of this team because they lack a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. They rank 269th in the nation by rebounding only 26.9% of their missed shots. They rank 195th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.0% of their opponent’s possessions. Granted, they are a good shooting team that is making 47.6% of their shots — but the Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. Boise State also outrebounds their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +5.0 or more RPG. The Rams go back on the road where they have a 7-7 record and get outscored -0.9 PPG. They allow their opponents to score +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. But it is their shooting that really suffers when they are away from home as they score -6.0 fewer PPG and -10.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. While they nail 39.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home, that mark plummets to a 31.2% clip when playing on the road which ranks 250th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 19.7% of their possessions on the road which ranks 294th in the nation — so that does not help their cause. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when playing with revenge on their mind. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year is with the Boise State Broncos (842) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alcorn State Braves (306510) minus the point(s) versus the Texas Southern Tigers (306509). THE SITUATION: Alcorn State (9-19) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 71-55 victory against Prairie A&M as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Texas Southern (13-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 67-52 loss at Jackson State as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINT(S): The records of teams competing in the Southwest Athletic Conference need to be taken with a grain of salt. Alcorn State opened their season with 14 straight losses — but the first 13 games were all on the road against teams outside the SWAC. Analytics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Braves’ non-conference schedule as the sixth most challenging in the nation. This is a team much better than their record — as evidenced by a loss in overtime at South Alabama earlier in the season. They have won nine of their last 14 games — and they have won five of their last seven contests. In their last five games, they are making 48.8% of their shots which is resulting in 74.8 Points-Per-Game. The Braves have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on their home court. And while this is their second game since February 22nd, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing for the second time in eight days. This is just their eighth game at home all season — they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +12.4 PPG. They rank second in the SWAC in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Alcorn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games when favored this year. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Texas Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They stay on the road where they have a 4-12 record with an average losing margin of -10.0 PPG. They rank sixth in the SWAC in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road in conference play. They rank 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they only rank 11th in that metric in conference play. They are only making 40.3% of their shots on the road resulting in 68.3 PPG. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Alcorn State is a good offensive rebounding team that ranks third in the SWAC by pulling down 35.1% of their missed shots — and Texas Southern ranks 10th in the conference by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 33.3% of their missed shots. The Tigers play at the third-fastest pace in the SWAC and they average 62 shots per game. The Braves have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. And while Texas Southern is a good defensive team that holds their opponents to 40.6% shooting, Alcorn State has covered the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42.0% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves want to avenge a 66-57 loss at Texas Southern as a 9.5-point underdog on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Alcorn State Braves (306510) minus the point(s) versus the Texas Southern Tigers (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) plus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (576). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (32-29) lost for the fourth time in their last five games after their 117-116 upset loss at Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (28-32) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 125-108 victory against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota allowed the Jazz to make 51.1% of their shots which was tied for the second-worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. Anthony Edwards did not play in that game serving his one-game suspension. He is listed as questionable for this contest with a calf injury but with him not being ruled out this early evening, I am making the educated guess that he will get back out on the court after not playing on Friday. Rudy Gobert is out tonight with a back injury and Julius Randle is questionable with a calf injury. Here’s hoping the allure of a nationally televised game will be enough to get both Edwards and Randle to play tonight. Even if one or both of them do not play, I still like the situation for the T-Wolves. They should play better on defense tonight after their effort against the Jazz — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after suffering an upset loss on the road. This is their third game since Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing for the third time in four days. Additionally, the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as a dog getting up to six points. Phoenix may be without Bradley Beal tonight who is questionable with a calf injury. The Suns made 59.5% of their shots in what was their best shooting effort of the season. They converted 21 of their 40 shots (52%) from behind the arc — so a visit from the Regression Gods is very likely for this team. As it is, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home after a straight-up win at home. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games at home when favored. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to six points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games with the Total set in the 230s. Minnesota makes 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who make at least 37% of their shots from behind the arc. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home against teams who shoot 37% or better from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have lost both their meetings with the T-Wolves this season after a 121-113 loss at home as a 1-point favorite on January 29th. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) plus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle University Redhawks (784) plus the point(s) versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (783). THE SITUATION: Seattle University (11-16) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-48 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Grand Canyon (21-6) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 85-71 victory against UT-Arlington as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Redhawks stay at home where they have a 9-4 record with an average winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank second in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the home court in conference play. They lead the WAC by making 52.9% of their shots inside the arc. Seattle does several things quite well. They rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line. They rank 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down just 26.5% of their missed shots. They rank 43rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark rises to a 22.7% clip in conference play. The Antelopes are vulnerable in this department as they rank 318th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions when playing on the road. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after beating a fellow WAC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. The Antelopes are scoring -7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks want to avenge an 83-74 loss at Grand Canyon as a 10-point underdog on January 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Seattle University Redhawks (784) plus the point(s) versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (783). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (764) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (763). THE SITUATION: Texas (16-12) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 86-81 loss in overtime at Arkansas on Wednesday. Georgia (17-11) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 88-83 upset victory against Florida as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas allowed the Razorbacks to make 46.6% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 20 of their 30 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Rodney Terry. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Despite their 12 losses this season, Texas remains on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament — but they need to start registering some victories for the win column again. They have three impressive wins against Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M on their resume. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Longhorns have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 41.1% shooting which is resulting in 67.8 PPG. They are also making 49.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 83.8 PPG. They rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are scouring +7.2 more points per 100 possessions when at home. Texas has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played in March. Georgia nailed 53.8% of their shots in their upset win against Florida which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also played their best defensive game in their last three contests after holding the Gators to 40.9% shooting. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They go back on the road where they have a 3-8 record with an average losing margin of -9.4 PPG. They are only making 40.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. While they rank 31st in the nation at home in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 122nd in the nation when on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 26.6% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which drags down their effective field goal percentage to 48.7% — those marks rank 357th and 345th in the nation respectively. They are also too loose with the basketball by turning it over in 22.5% of their possessions on the road. Furthermore, Georgia allows their opponents to pull down 40.1% of their missed shots on the road, ranking 336th in the nation. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB SEC Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (764) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (763). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (842) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (841). THE SITUATION: Portland State (16-12) has lost two games in a row after their 60-58 upset loss at Weber State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Montana State (12-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in an 89-85 upset loss against Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 41.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 contests. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. They return home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +20.1 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is resulting in 60.1 PPG. They also make 51.3% of their shots at home which is resulting in 82.2 PPG. Portland State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. Even if the Vikings are not shooting the ball well, they have other ways of generating possessions. Portland State leads the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank second in the conference by pulling down 19.8% of their missed shots. Montana State struggles to generate extra possessions. They are last in the Big Sky by forcing turnovers in just 14.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and they also rank last in the conference by pulling down only 21.3% of their missed shots. The Bobcats made 53.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are just 2-13 this season with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. They are only making 42.2% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 68.3 PPG. They also allow their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 75.7 PPG. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings look to avenge a 74-73 loss on the road against the Bobcats as a 3.5-point underdog on February 1st. Portland State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Portland State Vikings (842) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (696) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (695). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (20-7) has lost two games in a row after their 77-69 upset loss against Tennessee as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Vanderbilt (18-9) snapped a three-game losing streak in a 77-72 win against Mississippi as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M only made 39.0% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Aggies are not a great shooting team — but they lead the nation in offensive rebounding by pulling down 41.8% of their missed shots. They should dominate the Commodores on the glass tonight since Vanderbilt ranks 171st in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road. Texas A&M combines these second-chance scoring opportunities with a stout defense that ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Aggies play for the second time since last Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have a 12-2 record with an average winning margin of +15.7 Points-Per-Game. They lead the nation by rebounding 45.1% of their missed shots. They also rank 11th at home in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they limit their guests to 37.0% shooting which results in only 61.2 PPG. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Vanderbilt made 46.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. They also held the Rebels to 41.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and tied for the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Commodores are not a good defensive team — and that makes this matchup with the Aggies even more perilous for them. They rank 74th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their last five opponents made 49.3% of their shots against them resulting in 78.6 PPG. Against SEC competition, they have allowed their conference rivals to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 79.2 PPG. Vanderbilt has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win against an SEC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference foe. They go back on the road where they have a 5-7 record with an average losing margin of -4.3 PPG. They drop to 90th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road with the problem being their half-court defense. The Commodores rank 350th in the nation on the road with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 59.1% They rank 359th on the road with their opponents making 40.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 342nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making 58.1% of their shots inside the arc. Overall, Vandy allows their opponents to make 51.5% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 78.8 PPG. But they are only making 44.5% of their shots on the road including just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores thrive on defense by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 33rd in the nation. But the Aggies are even better in that area as they force turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 30th in the nation. Texas A&M is vulnerable to being too loose with the basketball as they rank 245th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. But when playing at home in the rugged SEC this season, the Aggies are turning the ball over in just 15.0% of their possessions. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Texas A&M Aggies (696) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (846) minus the points versus the UMKC Roos (845). THE SITUATION: South Dakota State (18-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 77-68 upset loss against North Dakota State as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. UMKC (10-17) has lost two games in a row after their 78-66 upset loss against Nebraska-Omaha as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JACKRABBITS MINUS THE POINTS: South Dakota State only made 39.4% of their shots against the Bison on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. They should shoot the basketball better this afternoon. The Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games this season following an upset loss. South Dakota State is 12-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +18.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in 70.4 PPG. They also nail 51.9% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 88.5 PPG. The Jackrabbits ranks tenth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.6% of their home court. They are converting 60.4% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 14th in the nation. South Dakota State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. UMKC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games this season after suffering an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss to a fellow Summit League rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two games in a row. On the road, they have a 2-12 record with an average losing margin of -8.4 net PPG. They are only making 38.4% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are also allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 72.8 PPG. Where the Roos are particularly vulnerable against the Jackrabbits is their interior defense. UMKC ranks 309th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 54.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank 310th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 56.3% of their 2-pointers. The Roos do rely on crashing the glass as they rank second in the Summit League by pulling down 35.2% of their shots in conference play. But good luck to them for getting second-chance scoring opportunities against this South Dakota State team that leads the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.1% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: UMKC wants to avenge a 65-64 loss at home against South Dakota State as a 4-point home underdog back on January 23rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in their 2 opportunities to avenge a loss at home this season. The Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games at home this season when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when laying double-digits. 10* CBB UMKC-South Dakota State CBS Sports Network Special with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (846) minus the points versus the UMKC Roos (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Morgan State Bears (306634) plus the points versus the Howard Bison (306633). THE SITUATION: Morgan State (11-14) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 92-78 upset win at UNC-Central as a 9-point underdog on Monday. Howard (11-15) won for the third time in their last four contests in an 86-82 win against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Morgan State has won four of their last six games — and they should build off the momentum of their victory earlier this week. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset victory against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 1st where they have an 8-3 record with an averaging winning margin of +15.0 net Points-Per-Game. They are nailing 53.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 87.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to 40.4% shooting at home. They rank second in the MEAC with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.8%. They rank second in the conference with their conference visitors only making 49.8% of the shots inside the arc. They also rank 58th in the country by holding their guests to just a 29.8% clip from behind the arc — and their MEAC rivals are shooting only 29.4% from 3-point range on their home court. Morgan State has covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 boarded games at home this season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em including four of those five circumstances this season. The Bears rank 58th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line when playing at home. And while they sacrifice defensive rebounding for getting out on the fast break, the Bison are last in the MEAC by pulling down only 26.7% of their missed shots. Both of these teams play at a fast pace — these two combined for 79 possessions each in Howard’s 100-95 victory back on January 11th. More on that game below — but the Bison’s lack of size will probably be a problem in this rematch. Howard does not have a starter over 6’6 — and only one of their players in their regular rotation is taller than that. Morgan State has two players in their rotation at 6’9 or taller — and they rank third in the conference by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots. The Bison rank 318th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots — and their conference opponents are rebounding 34.7% of their missed shots. Howard nailed 55.9% of their shots in their win on Monday which was the second-best shooting effort in their last nine contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after beating a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a win against an MEAC foe. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival. They go back on the road where they are just 3-10 with an average losing margin of -10.8 PPG. They are allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots on the road resulting in 81.6 PPG. They rank 350th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road with their opponents making 36.3% of their 3s and 58.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 271st and 331st in the nation. The Bison are the top offensive team in the MEAC but they only make 34.8% of their shots from downtown when away from home. Their fast pace leads them to get too loose with the basketball — they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions on the road. Morgan State is third in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.8% of their opponent’s possessions when playing at home. Howard has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Howard outlasted the Bears last month by shooting 60.0% of their shots and nailing 9 of their 12 shots from behind the arc in what was their second-best shooting effort of the season. But Morgan State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road including all five of those circumstances this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Morgan State Bears (306634) plus the points versus the Howard Bison (306633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wright State Raiders (872) minus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (871). THE SITUATION: Wright State (13-15) has lost two games in a row after their 79-68 upset loss at Green Bay as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northern Kentucky (12-15) has lost two of their last three contests after their 92-70 loss at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: There are not many things more humiliating in college basketball this season than losing to Green Bay who have been an utter disaster under the guidance of the devastatingly under-qualified rookie head coach Doug Gottlieb who did not even have the sense of self to quit his day job as a loudmouth radio host at Fox — but Wright State did gift the Phoenix their third victory of the entire season on Sunday. They shot only 39.3% from the field in that setback which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Head coach Clint Sargent certainly had an attentive locker room in practice this week. As it is, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after an upset loss to a fellow Horizon League rival. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after losing two games in a row. This team has lost both its games that got decided in overtime — and they have lost another five games decided by three points or less. Only one of their victories has been by three points or less — so Sargent’s team probably is better than their overall record under .500 suggests. They return home where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +9.8 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 41.7% shooting from the field — and they are giving up -4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home than on the road. They also nail 49.9% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in 80.4 PPG. Wright State is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. They rank 14th in the nation by making 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark improves to a 40.8% clip when playing at home, ranking ninth best in the country. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. Northern Kentucky has lost eight of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to a Horizon League rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 gams after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. They stay on the road for the third straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last two games on the road. On the road, they have a 3-9 record with an average losing margin of -8.7 PPG. They only make 40.4% of their shots when on the road — and they rank 293rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency away from home. They also allow their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 76.3 PPG. Of particular concern is their perimeter defense as the Norse rank 351st in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who make 37% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Norse want to avenge a 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite on January 18th. Northern Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Wright State Raiders (872) minus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (871). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (14-11) has lost three games in a row after their 87-77 upset loss at home against Middle Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Sam Houston (10-16) snapped a seven-game losing streak in a 78-76 win against Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 38.6% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Hilltoppers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while they had won three games in a row before this recent losing streak, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +10.7 Points-Per-Game. The Hilltoppers are holding their guests to just 39.9% shooting which is resulting in 73.1 PPG. They rank 26th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.6% when playing at home — and they rank tenth in the nation by limiting their visitors to just a 26.5% clip from behind the arc when playing at home. This presents a major problem for the Bearkats since they only hit 46.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road, ranking 302nd in the nation. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when continuing a home stand. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games this season against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Sam Houston ended their seven-game losing streak by making 53.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. But the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 79.1 PPG. They only make 42.9% of their shots on the road. Overall, they have a 3-13 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.2 PPG. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 150s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range including all seven of those games this season. Western Kentucky plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They rank third in the nation by averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession — and their games rank sixth in the country by averaging 72.9 possessions per game. The extra possessions help favorites cover when laying the points. And while the Hilltoppers limit their opponents to 41.4% shooting, the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams with a 75-66 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on January 25th — and Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. 10* CBB Sam Houston-Western Kentucky ESPNU Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). THE SITUATION: Maine (16-9) has won eight of their last nine contests after their 73-50 victory against UMBC as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Vermont (14-11) has won three straight games after their 79-59 victory against New Hampshire as a 14.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Maine should build off their recent momentum in this showdown between the second and third-place teams in the America East conference. The Black Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after beating an America East rival including six of their seven contests this season. This is a dangerous team that does a couple of things very well to put them in a position to win all of their games. First, Maine ranks 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions — and that clip rises to a 23.0% mark in conference play. The Catamounts are vulnerable in this area as they rank 184th in the nation by turning the ball on 18.4% of their possessions when they are playing away from home. Second, the Black Bears lead the America East by making 39.5% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a 40.1% clip when playing at home which is the 17th-best percentage in the nation when it comes to home courts. Vermont ranks 295th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3s when they are playing away from home. Maine has a strong home-court advantage where they have an 8-1 record with an average winning margin of +23.2 net Points-Per-Game. According to one of the power ranking metrics I use, the Black Bears rank 207th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to a 143rd rank when playing on their home court. They are making 51.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 80.9 PPG — and they are scoring +7.3 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also holding their guests to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in only 57.7 PPG — and they are giving up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on their home court. Maine has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last seven games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. The Black Bears enjoy a strong situational edge in this contest after getting the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight days. Vermont has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with just one day of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. The Catamounts made 46.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. But this is not a good offensive team that ranks 331st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 42.2% of their shots which is resulting in 66.2 PPG — and it gets even worse when they are playing on the road where they only shoot 38.4% from the field and score just 60.4 PPG. They are scoring -8.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Vermont ranks 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they drop to 272d in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have a 5-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. The Catamounts have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 130s including all three of their games on the road this season. Vermont leads the America East in defense rebounding percentage — but that is not a helpful tactic against Maine who only pulls down 20.5% of their missed shots in conference play since they sacrificed second-chance opportunities for getting back on defense.

FINAL TAKE: The Catamounts won the first meeting between these teams by a 55-49 score as a 2-point home favorite back on February 1st — but the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when avenging a loss. 25* CBB America East Game of the Year with the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (892) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (891). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (12-14) has lost two games in a row after their 69-66 loss at home to San Diego State as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Nevada (14-10) has won three games in a row after their 94-69 victory against Fresno State as a 16-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. They start at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State is a good shooting deep from behind the arc — they rank 74th in the nation with a 36.1% shooting percentage from 3-point land while improving that mark to a 37.4% clip in conference play which ranks second in the Mountain West Conference. The Wolf Pack are vulnerable against good outside shooting teams as they rank 337th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Nevada made 61.3% of their shots against the Bulldogs on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them all season. This is the Wolf Pack’s second game since last Tuesday, February 4th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight or more days including failing to cover the point spread in four straight games on the road under those circumstances. Nevada is just 4-6 on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s. The Wolf Pack thrive in defending their defensive glass — they rank 18th in the nation in rebounding percentage on that end of the court. But this will not help when playing the Spartans who sacrifice pounding their offensive glass for getting back on defense. And while Nevada leads the Mountain West Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions, Nevada only turns the ball over in 16.5% of their possessions in conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolf Pack won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 18th by a 75-64 score — but San Jose State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge including six of their last seven games when they are playing on their home court. 8* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (892) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (832) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (831). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (20-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 85-67 upset loss at home against UC-San Diego as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. UC-Santa Barbara (16-8) has won three games in a row after their 76-72 win against Hawai’i as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine comes off their worst game of the season on Saturday. They allowed the Tritons to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They only made 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contest. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of the 4 games in the last two seasons after giving up 85 or more points in their last contest. UC-Irvine is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are holding their opponents to 38.9% shooting which is resulting in 66.0 Points-Per-Game. They also rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 25.7% of their missed shots. They stay at home where they have an 8-1 record this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.9 PPG. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. UC-Santa Barbara allowed the Rainbow Warriors to make 52.1% of their shots on Saturday which was the third time in their last four games where they gave up 49.2% or worse shooting from the field. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after beating a Big West Conference rival in their previous game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row including failing to cover the point spread in those last five circumstances. They go back on the road where have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 140s. UC-Santa Barbara leads the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — but the Anteaters also lead the conference in defensive effective field goal percentage while ranking 12th in the nation overall with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.5%. When playing at home, UC-Irvine ranks second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 38.2% shooting inside the arc. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who are not giving up more than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine is outscoring their opponents by +9.8 PPG — and UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including all four of those games this season. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games at home against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (832) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). THE SITUATION: Illinois-Chicago (15-10) has suffered three-straight upset losses after a 79-67 loss at Southern Illinois as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (12-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 74-56 win at Valparaiso as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Maybe playing the role of the underdog will get Illinois-Chicago going again. They have already pulled off two impressive upset victories against Yale and Drake this season. They only make 41.5% of their shots against the Salukis which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Flames have been a better team playing away from home this season. One of the power rankings systems I consider ranks them 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — but they improve to ranking 98th in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an 8-5 record on the road with an average winning margin of +2.7 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +5.9 points per 100 possessions when playing from home while holding their opponents to -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They rank 21st with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9% away from home — they rank 50th by making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc and 30th with a 55.2% shooting clip inside the arc. They also rank 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 26.0% of their missed shots when they are playing on the road. Illinois-Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as a dog or as a pick ‘em. Murray State nailed 49.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held the Crusaders to 35.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last eight contests. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after playing on the road in their previous game. Murray State has been a better team on the road this season where they rank 130th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 251st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they play at home. They are just 5-5 on their home court where they rank 209th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their guests are making 52.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 274th in the country. They are giving up +3.0 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and they are scoring -5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games at home including 7 of their 9 games this season. Three have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Murray State has not been a reliable favorite lately since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when favored including 10 of their last 15 games when laying the points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. And while Illinois-Chicago is making 47.4% of their shots, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games against teams making 45% or more of their shots from the field.

FINAL TAKE: The Flames won the first meetings between these two teams in a 97-93 victory at home as a 3-point favorite on January 15th — and Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southeastern Louisiana Lions (306661) plus the points versus the Incarnate Word Cardinals (306662). THE SITUATION: Southeastern Louisiana (14-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 81-79 victory against Lamar as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Incarnate Word (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 67-65 loss at McNeese State as a 15.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Southeastern Louisiana should continue their recent stretch of playing good basketball in the Southland Conference. The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory against a fellow conference rival. On the road, they have a winning 8-6 record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road. Southeastern Louisiana ranks 50th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.5% of their opponents’ possessions. They also rank 43rd in the country by holding their opponents to a 30.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Furthermore, in conference play, the Lions rank second in getting to the free throw line — and the Cardinals rank eighth in the Southland Conference in defensive free throw rate. Southeastern Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s. Incarnate Word held McNeese State to a 49.2% shooting percentage on Monday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last five games. The Cardinals have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.9% of their shots. They rank 10th in the Southland Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.1% while ranking 11th in both opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting inside the arc. They are pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking fourth, but the Lions lead the Southland Conference by holding their opponents to rebounding just 28.6% of their missed shots. Incarnate Word has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their eight games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Southeastern Louisiana won the first meeting between these two teams by an 86-63 score as a 3-point favorite at home on January 25th. Under head coach Shane Heirman, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 opportunities to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Southeastern Louisiana Lions (306661) plus the points versus the Incarnate Word Cardinals (306662). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (744) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (743). THE SITUATION: Texas (15-7) has won three of their last four games after their 89-58 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (13-8) has won two of their last three games after their 89-79 upset victory as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas managed to blowout the Tigers over the weekend despite allowing them to make 45.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Longhorns nailed 56.3% of their shots to easily win that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after hitting at least 55% of their shots in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. And in their last 5 games at home after a win by 15 or more points, they have covered the point spread in 4 of those games. Texas returns home where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of +21.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 39.2% shooting on their home court which is resulting in just 63.5 PPG. They are also nailing 51.7% of their shots from the field at home which is resulting in 85.3 PPG. The Longhorns rank 18th in the nation by making 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and they face a Razorbacks team that ranks 325th by allowing their opponents to make 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games last home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 140s. Arkansas made 55.2% of their shots on Saturday against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-up victory. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.6 PPG while sporting a losing 4-5 record. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. In SEC play, they are only making 39.0% of their shots which is resulting in 67.4 PPG which is -9.4 fewer points than their season average. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Razorbacks are outscoring their opponents by +8.2 PPG — but Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Longhorns are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — and Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams who are scoring +8.0 or more PPG including five of their last seven games on the road. 10* CBB Arkansas-Texas ESPN2 Special with the Texas Longhorns (744) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (743). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Idaho State Bengals (884) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (10-10) has won two games in a row and four of their last six contests after their 87-71 victory against Idaho as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Northern Colorado (16-6) has won two games in a row and ten of their last 11 contests with an 87-69 victory against Northern Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINT(S): Idaho State should build on their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They stay at home where they have a 6-2 record with an average winning margin of +10.4 net Points-Per-Game. One power rankings system I look at places the Bengals as the #217th team in the nation — but they rise to #176 when playing on their home court. They are scoring +3.6 more points per 100 possessions on their home court while giving up -3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting which results in 64.4 Points-Per-Game. Idaho State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation as they pull down 40.1% of their missed shots. And while the Bears allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow their opponents to make 45.0% or more of their shots from the field. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game in their last five contests by holding Northern Arizona to just 40.3% shooting. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. Northern Colorado has a 10-1 record when they are playing at home — but they are just 6-5 when playing away from home where they are scoring -6.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They are great shooting team inside the arc that ranks sixth in the nation by making 60.1% of their 2-pointers. But the Bears lack a Plan B — especially on the road. They rank 335th on the road in getting to the free-throw line. They only pull down 23.5% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 326th in the nation. They nail just 29.9% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 293rd. And they only force turnovers in 16.9% of their opponent’s possessions on the road, ranking 176th. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of rather last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And while Idaho State outrebounds their opponents by +10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals look to avenge a 93-92 loss on the road against the Bears on January 4th as an 8-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Idaho State Bengals (884) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (828) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (827). THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-56 loss to Memphis as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Tulsa (9-12) has lost three of their last four contests after their 78-68 loss to UAB as a 7-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane only made 36.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. They should shoot better this afternoon considering they are making 45.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 79.3 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home for this one where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +16.1 net Points-Per-Game. Tulane has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. The Green Wave ranks 131st in the nation in net efficiency according to one power ranking system — but they rise to 104th in the nation when they are playing on their home court. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions when at home. Even better, they are limiting their guests to -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home. Tulsa held the Blazers to a 44.6% shooting clip on Wednesday which was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. But the Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They go back on the road where they have lost six of their eight games this season — and they are getting outscored by -9.0 PPG. Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s. The Golden Hurricane is making only 38.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 69.6 PPG. They are scoring only 94.5 points per 100 possessions on the road which not only ranks 344th in the nation but also -11.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than their scoring efficiency on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 8* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tulane Green Wave (828) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). THE SITUATION: BYU (13-6) has won two games in a row after their 80-52 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (13-6) has won two games in a row as well after their 76-61 win at Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has seen two recent developments that are very encouraging for them moving forward. First, freshman forward Egor Demin broke out on Saturday with 15 points, five rebounds, and seven assists. The potential lottery pick in the NBA draft demonstrated his potential in November but hit a wall the last two months. He takes on the role as a point forward who can facilitate the offense of the Cougars’ balanced scoring attack. Second, BYU has played much better on defense since Mawot Mag was inserted into the starting lineup for the thin freshman jump shooter Kanon Catchings. Mag is a 6’7 senior who offers the team a more physical presence. BYU has held their last four opponents to 1.00, 0.99, 1.02, and 0.87 Points-Per-Possession which is far below the 1.04 PPP average scoring efficiency in the Big 12. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games after a win by 15 or more points. BYU’s improved play on defense deserves attention since they are already such a good offensive basketball team. They are scoring 80.4 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. After making 58.5% of their shots against Colorado, they nailed 57.1% of their shots against the Bearcats — and it was the third time in their last four games they made at least 51.9% of their shots. Two of the Cougars' losses this season were in overtime including their most recent loss against Utah. They stay at home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +26.3 net PPG. They are making 51.1% of their shots at home which is resulting in 87.4 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 38.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.1 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This is a great matchup for them. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Bears crash the glass — but the Cougars rank fourth in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 23.0% of their missed shots. They also rank 34th by pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 224th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.8% of their misses. BYU also ranks 26th by nailing 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home — and the Bears rank 331st by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of the shots from behind the arc. Baylor enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last three games against the Utes despite only making 43.9% of their shots — they failed to make more than 39.7% of their shots in their previous two games. Two of their wins this season were in overtime — so while these teams have identical records, it could easily be different results. They were down to a six-man rotation on Saturday given a concussion to Jeremy Roach and an ankle injury to Langston Love. Both players are questionable to play tonight — so the Bears may be reduced to a six-man rotation against tonight in another high-altitude game on short rest. As it is, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Bears are 12-1 at home — but they are just 5-5 on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG. They rank 323rd away from home with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.0% — and they rank 348th by allowing these opponents to make 38.8% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: BYU is outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG — and they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court. Baylor ranks 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Bears are outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-3) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 84-80 upset loss at UC-Riverside as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Hawai’i (12-7) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-66 loss at UC-Davis as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine allowed the Highlanders to make 45.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. They had held their previous five opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they are holding their guests to 34.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.7 Points-Per-Game. They have won all six of their games at home by an average winning margin of +23.0 PPG. They also generate +4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on their home court. UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in all 5 of their boarded home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130s. This is a terrible matchup for the Rainbow Warriors. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation — but UC-Irvine does not prioritize crashing the glass. Hawai’i ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line — but the Anteaters rank third in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Rainbow Warriors rank 38th in the nation by making 56.3% of their shots inside the arc — but UC-Irvine ranks fourth in the nation on their home court with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.5% — and they rank second in the nation with their opponents only hitting 38.8% of their shots inside the arc at home. Hawai’i outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Anteaters have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. UC-Irvine outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 RPG — and the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including 4 of their last 5 games on the road. To compound matters, Hawai’i ranks 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions — and it gets even worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 23.4% of their possessions which is the 350th worst rate in the nation. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including five of those seven games this season.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season at home laying 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying 3.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Month with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). THE SITUATION: James Madison (9-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-66 loss at Appalachian State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Marshall (10-8) has won three of their last four contests after their 81-69 victory against Georgia Southern as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: James Madison comes off what was probably the worst game of their season. They only made 34.8% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games and second-lowest of the season. They allowed the Mountaineers to nail 53.8% of their shots as well which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Dukes should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 39.3% shooting which is resulting in 64.5 PPG — and they are making 48.7% of their shots at home which is generating 80.5 PPG in front of their home fans. James Madison has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Dukes are a good rebounding team that is outrebounding their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. They rank 77th in the nation by pulling down 33.7% of their shots. They also rank 39th by holding their opponents to 26.3% of their missed shots. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all seven of those games played on the road. The Thundering Herd thrives at 3-point defense — but that is not an area of strength for the Dukes. Marshall shot 50% from the field in their win against Georgia Southern which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games this season after winning at home in their last game. The other thing that Marshall does well is getting to the free throw line where they lead the Sun Belt Conference and 41st in the nation. But they are last in the conference by converting on only 62.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. Interior defense is a concern for this team as they are last in the Sun Belt with their opponents making 55.9% of their shots inside the arc. They have lost all six of their true road games by an average losing margin of -12.8 PPG. They are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.0% of their shots which is resulting in 79.5 PPG — and they are only making 39.0% of their shots and scoring 66.7 PPG. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games as an underdog including five of their six games this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd won the first meeting between these two teams with an 80-78 victory as a 1-point home favorite on January 9th — but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is with the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (559) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (560). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-18) has lost two games in a row after their 114-110 upset loss as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Milwaukee (18-16) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 128-104 victory at Toronto as a 7-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks nailed 57.3% of their shots against the Raptors which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 contests. Milwaukee has been in a scoring slump as they had not made more than 46.4% of their shots in their previous four games despite their field goal percentage for the season being 47.6%. The Bucks have been in a funk since winning the NBA Cup — they have gone just 4-5 overall since beating Oklahoma City in the finals in Las Vegas. Head coach Doc Rivers has moved Khris Middleton to the bench. Much of Milwaukee’s malaise has been because of their inconsistency. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games at home after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 20 or more points. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 220s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Victor Wembanyama has probably already become an All-NBA first-team player in his second season in the league. His offensive skills continue to grow — and he is the best defensive player in the league. The Spurs are becoming an elite defensive team — in their last nine games, they rank third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — and San Antonio has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the San Antonio Spurs (559) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (529) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (530). THE SITUATION: Miami (17-16) suffered their second-straight upset loss at home against Utah as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Sacramento (17-18) has won four games in a row after their 129-99 upset win at Golden State as a 3.5-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: In their first game since Jimmy Butler was suspended for publicly asking for a trade after President of Operations Pat Riley declared he was not on the market, the Miami players did not show up in an embarrassing 36-point loss against the lowly Jazz. They only made 43.8% of their shots which was the worst effort in their last five games. They also allowed Utah to nail 52.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. Head coach Erik Spoelstra should have his group refocused and ready to compete tonight as they begin a West Coast road trip. As it is, the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have played three straight Overs — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They begin this road trip after playing their last three games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after playing their last three games at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 road games against Western Conference opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Sacramento has won four games in a row under interim head coach Doug Christie after Mike Brown was fired on December 27th. They made 51.7% of their shots yesterday despite playing without De’Aron Fox out with a gluteus injury. He is doubtful to play tonight. Their recent run has been fortunate since three of their victories came against teams without their star players. They got Memphis without Ja Morant. They got Philadelphia without Joel Embiid. They got Dallas without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for the second time in back-to-back days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win on the road. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after beating a fellow Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a win against a divisional opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game. Sacramento returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 220s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to six points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games against teams from the Eastern Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has the additional motivation to avenge a 111-110 upset loss at home to the Kings as a 1-point underdog on November 4th. The underdog has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when they are on the road for these contests. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Miami Heat (529) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (546) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (545). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (28-6) has won eight games in a row after their 116-98 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 12-point favorite last night. New York (24-10) has won nine games in a row after their 119-103 victory against Utah as a 12.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: I am not too concerned about Oklahoma City playing without a day of rest since they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after not giving up more than 100 points in their last contest. This is their fourth straight game at home where they have a 14-2 record while outscoring their opponents by +13.5 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to just 103.8 PPG. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record. And while the Knicks are outscoring their opponents by +8.3 PPG, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 home games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games this season against teams from the Eastern Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against Eastern Conference foes. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They continue to play without the injured Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso — but they just keep rolling. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson tonight who is listed as questionable with a calf injury. They nailed 55.3% of their shots against the Jazz which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. They also held Utah to a 40.6% field goal percentage which was the second-best defensive performance in their last 14 games. They have benefitted from a soft schedule during their current winning streak with just San Antonio, Minnesota, and a banged-up Orlando team (twice) having winning records during that stretch. Their remaining opponents have been a tour against last place teams Washington (twice), New Orleans, Toronto, and the Jazz. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games on the road this season with the Total set in the 220s. And while the Thunder make 49.5% of their shots this season, the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a field goal percentage of 46% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who are winning 75% or more of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a 75% or better winning percentage. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (546) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (548) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (547). THE SITUATION: Houston (22-10) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 110-99 win against Dallas as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston (25-9) has won two games in a row after their 25-9 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 home games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after beating a fellow Southwest Division rival at home. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. They stay at home where they have a 12-5 record with an average winning margin of +9.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 43.5% shooting which is resulting in 104.8 PPG. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 games at home including 11 of their 17 home games this season. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 220s. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games as an underdog. And while the Celtics are outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG, Houston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG. The Rockets will be without Amen Thompson who is serving out a suspension — but the Celtics' list of potential absences are more significant. Al Horford is not playing for load management. Both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable with nagging injuries. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after winning their last game on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road after a victory by six points or less. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the league as they hold their opponents to 106.4 PPG — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams who are not giving up more than 108 PPG. Furthermore, Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Don’t  Need the Points (but we will take the points) with the Houston Rockets (548) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711) in the Jumpman Invitational. THE SITUATION: Michigan (8-2) had won seven games in a row before their 89-87 upset loss to Arkansas as a 4-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic on December 10th. Oklahoma (10-0) has won their first ten games of the season after their 80-65 victory against Oklahoma State on a neutral court in Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan is a talented team under first-year head coach Dusty May. The Wolverines currently rank 22nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. They are also battle-tested with five of their ten games being played away from Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor. Their two losses to Wake Forest and then the Razorbacks were by four combined points. Their signature win was in Madison against Wisconsin in a true hostile environment — and Pomeroy ranks the Badgers as his 35th team in the country. They also beat Iowa which ranks 45th by Pomeroy. The Wolverines lost to Wake Forest in Greensville. They won their multi-team event in Fort Myers. May got the Michigan job by achieving great success at Florida Atlantic including a run to the Final Four two years ago. His style of play is effective because it prioritizes seizing additional possessions. The Wolverines rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 54th in the nation. These tactics create a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. But the Wolverines are an efficient team on offense. They present one of the most challenging starting lineups in the country with two seven-footers. Danny Wolf is a 7’0 transfer from Yale and the 7’1 Vladislav Goldin came over with May from FAU. These two already have terrific chemistry together and this is one of the main reasons why Michigan is making 61.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. The Wolverines are turning the ball over more than they should be — their 21.4% turnover rate is the 335th worst in the nation. This is worrisome against a Sooners’ team that ranks 19th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponent’s possessions — but that is why the point spread is so low. I am not as concerned about this because the source of their turnovers is from their big men rather than their guards — so they are not quite as vulnerable to full-court presses which is important since the top two steal artists for Oklahoma in their starting five are guards. The Wolverines also play outstanding defense — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arkansas nailed 50% of their shots against them which was Michigan’s worst defensive effort of the season. While Wake Forest made 46.4% of their shots against them in May’s second regular season game as head coach, no other team made more than Iowa’s 41.6% shots against them. May’s teams in his coaching career have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after giving up 85 or more points in their last game. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Oklahoma’s best win this season was against an Arizona team that Pomeroy ranks at 30th. Their second-best victory was against a Louisville team that Pomeroy ranks 59th. Pomeroy rates the Sooners’ strength of schedule at 315th in the nation with five of their opponents ranking 266th or worse. For comparison's sake, Pomeroy ranks the Wolverines’ schedule as the 48th most difficult so far this season with five of their opponents in his top 101 teams — and they have only played one team ranked worse than 231rd according to his metrics. I suspect this is the game where Oklahoma’s bubble is burst on their unbeaten season as they do not match up well with Michigan. They rank 254th by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. They also rank 204th with their opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc. Their ability to force turnovers will be mitigated by the Wolverines’ significant size edge with two twin towers. The Sooners do not have a player in their starting five taller than 6’7 — and while head coach Porter Moser has three players 6’10 or taller on his bench, relying on them may not be the optimal strategy. Michigan out-rebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wolverines rank 52nd in the nation by assisting on 58.7% of their field goals — and they average 17 Assists-Per-Game. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average 16 or more Assists-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: May’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games in his career against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (540) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (539) in the Finals of the NBA Cup. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (20-5) has won five games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 111-96 victory against Houston as a 5.5-point favorite in their Semifinal match in the NBA Cup on Tuesday. Milwaukee (14-11) has won three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests after their 110-102 win against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the NBA Cup on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: The Bucks stepped up their play on defense against the Hawks by holding them to 42.7% shooting — but that was their best defensive effort in their last eight contests. Milwaukee is playing better basketball lately — and getting Kris Middleton back from injury certainly helps. They are better than their 13th ranking with an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +1.7. But even in their recent 12-game run, they only rise to tenth in the league with an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +5.0. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games away from home with the Total set in the 210s. Oklahoma City held the Rockets to just 36.5% shooting on Saturday. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will not make it easy on the Milwaukee shooters. They give up the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions — and the Bucks rank just 26th in the league in creating points in the paint. The Thunder also does a great job in defending the pick-and-roll which Milwaukee leans heavily on with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — they give up the fewest 3-point attempts in those situations. They also surrender the fifth fewest made 3-pointers in the NBA. Oklahoma City is holding their opponents to just 103.5 Points-Per-Game — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams who are not allowing more than 108 PPG. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. They are also 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams from the Eastern Conference. And in their last 6 games in December, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests.  

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City is outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG this season — and the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are getting outscored by +3.0 or more PPG. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Oklahoma City ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma City Thunder (540) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 117-106 loss at home against Houston as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (12-10) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 141-111 upset win at Atlanta as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver unquestionably played their best game of the season against the Hawks. They nailed 62.9% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort of their season — and they also played their best defensive game of the year by holding Atlanta to just 40.6% shooting. A letdown is likely tonight since the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a win by 20 or more points. They have not won two or more games in a row since November 10th. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home for the first time since December 3rd. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and four of those games were on their home court. Nikola Jokic has been playing great — but he needs more help. Depth is a big concern for this team — and both Jamal Murray and Christian Braun are questionable with injuries tonight. Los Angeles plays at a slow tempo which can frustrate many of their opponents who want to play at a fast pace. The Clippers rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the league by holding their opponents to pulling down only 26.2% of their missed shots. Ivika Zubac is pulling down a career-high 12.2 Rebounds-Per-Game this season. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last game at home. Their loss to the Rockets completed a four-game home stand — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after playing three or more games in a row including covering the point spread in five of those six occasions this season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after playing three or more games in a row. Defense travels — and the Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of up to six points. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road against teams winning 51-60% of their games. Los Angeles will be without Terance Mann and Derrick Jones tonight due to injuries — but James Harden has been upgraded to probable to take the court tonight.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are 2-0 this season against the Nuggets after their 126-122 upset win against them at home as a 3-point underdog on December 1st. The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 straight games between these two teams — and Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306533) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (306534). THE SITUATION: Maine (6-5) had won two games in a row before their 87-72 loss at Fordham as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Duquesne (2-7) has won two of their last three games after their 80-66 win against Delaware as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: As long as Doug Gottlieb is still at Wisconsin-Green Bay, the title of most unqualified head coach in Division I college basketball is taken — but the Dukes’ rookie head coach Dru Joyce III would be a contender for this moniker. After being an assistant at Cleveland State for four years, Joyce III was promoted to associate head coach at Duquesne in the last two years before he replaced the retiring Keith Dambrot in the offseason. Joyce’s father and brother are both high school coaches in Ohio. Oh, and Joyce is a close friend of LeBron James after being teammates together on the same high school team. The results are not encouraging so far. After losing their first seven games, the Dukes finally got off the Schneid with victories against Old Dominion and Delaware — although both those teams only rank 327th and 232nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. The offense lacks movement and too often devolves into a “my turn, your turn” slog. Duquesne ranks 271st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win at home. This is their second game since December 3rd — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing for the second time in eight or more days. At home, Duquesne has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Maine only made 39.4% of their shots against the Rams on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Fordham to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They should play better tonight -- and the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after losing on the road in their last game. This is their second game since December 3rd as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for just the second time in eight or more days. Maine is a solid team in the third season under head coach Chris Markwood. The Black Bears ranked 51st in returning minutes (from a 15-16 squad) — and they rank 86th in Division I experience. They have quality wins against Elon and Brown, which currently rank 145th and 176th in Pomeroy’s rankings (for comparison's sake, Maine ranks 220th and Duquesne ranks 218th in those rankings). The Black Bears rank in the top half of Division I by ranking 126th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They thrive in forcing turnovers — they rank 37th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. The Dukes are vulnerable since they are turning the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions, ranking 192nd. Duquesne likes to force turnovers as well at a 20.1% rate — but Maine ranks 106th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.3% of their possessions. The Dukes turn the ball over 12 times per game — and the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not turn the ball more than 14 times per game. Maine has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record including four of their five games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Additionally, it will not hurt that the Black Bears rank third in the nation by converting on 81.5% of their free throws.

FINAL TAKE: Maine makes 45.5% of their shots while holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots and limit their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with Maine Black Bears (306533) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (306534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). THE SITUATION: UConn (5-3) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 99-45 victory against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 40.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baylor (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 91-60 victory against New Orleans as a 38-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn suffered a disastrous three-game run in the Maui Invitational last week — but those losses deserve context. They lost in overtime against Memphis after some controversial officiating. The refs then played a role the next night in a one-point loss against Colorado. After those two emotional losses, they came out flat in their third game in three days against a Dayton team that ranks 32nd in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Unquestionably, head coach Dan Hurley has some work to do with his team’s play on the defensive end of the court after all three of those teams made at least 50% of their shots — losing Donovan Clingan, Tristan Newton, and Stephon Castle from last year’s team is a challenge. But now Hurley has had a week to get to work on fixing these issues. They held Maryland-Eastern Shore to just 30% shooting which was a season-best for them defensively. Perhaps this team is due for a visit from the Regression Gods? They do rank 27th  in the nation by keeping their opponents off the 3-point line as just 32.5% of their opponent’s shots from behind the arc — but these opponents are nailing 36.3% of these shots, ranking 298th. And while the Bears rank 38.1% of their shots from 3-point range, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are making at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Additionally, UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 43 games after beating their previous opponent by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after scoring 85 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing 55 or more points. Back on their home court, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games including four of their five games at home this season. This is a good matchup for UConn. Baylor struggles on the defensive of the court where they rank 74th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bears’ opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%, ranking 231st. They are allowing their opponents to make 41.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 355th. They are also letting their opponents make 52.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 209th — and the Huskies rank third in the nation by making 63.9% of their 2-pointers. UConn feasts on teams like this. Baylor allows their opponents to make 47.4% of their shots overall — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Baylor has lost to their two best opponents, Gonzaga and Tennessee. Their best win was against St. John’s — and it took two overtimes. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home as the dog. And while the Huskies are giving up only 63.3 Points-Per-Game, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are not allowing more than 64 PPG. UConn should have a big edge on the glass tonight. While the Bears rank 10th in the nation by pulling down 39.5% of their missed shots, the Huskies rank 21st by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.8% of their misses. But on the other end is where UConn should dominate. They rebound 35.9% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 211th by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.6% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies will be without Alex Karaban tonight which is not ideal — but they still have the depth edge against the Bears’ thin rotation that only goes seven or maybe eight deep. UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 42 games against teams outside the Big 12. 20* CBB Baylor-UConn FS1-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (520) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (519). THE SITUATION: Portland (7-12) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after their 121-114 loss at Indiana as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Sacramento (9-10) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 115-104 upset win at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland is probably better than their current record. They have split their last eight games despite playing a tough schedule over that stretch — and they have recently upset both Houston and Minnesota. Overall, they have faced the third-hardest schedule in the league. They have also played 11 of their 19 games on the road. Portland is just their ninth game on their home court this season where they are 4-4 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting five or more points. They have pulled off upsets at home in three of their last four games when getting five or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They may not have Scoot Henderson who is listed as questionable with an injury — but they did get DeAndre Ayton back after he missed much of the month to injury. Rookie Donovan Clingan stepped up in his absence as a defensive specialist and shot-blocker. The Blazers are also getting a great contribution from Shaedon Sharpe who is scoring a career-high 18 Points-Per-Game. Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two or more games in a row. Sacramento made 48.9% of their shots in their upset win against the Timberwolves which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Their 115 points was the highest scoring output for them since November 16th. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after pulling off an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win on the road. Sacramento has only played the 26th most difficult schedule in the league which makes their below .500 record even more troubling. They are the only team in the NBA to have had only one game against one of the top ten teams in the league — everyone else has played a top ten team at least three times. The Kings acquired DeMar DeRozan in the offseason — but adding him into the mix has only contributed to their reliance on midrange shooting. They are in the bottom ten in both 3-point shooting and 3-point shooting rate. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: Portland wants to avenge a 111-98 loss at Sacramento as a 13-point underdog back on October 28th. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games when avenging a same-season loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season on the road. The last time these two teams played in Portland, the Blazers won by a 130-113 score back on December 26th. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month is with the Portland Trail Blazers (520) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (551) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (552). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (8-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-108 upset loss against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (9-7) has won three games in a row after their 104-93 upset win against Orlando as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Sacramento only made 43.5% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games and second worst mark for them all season. De’Aaron Fox had scored 109 combined points over the weekend against Minnesota and Utah — this team should benefit from getting three full days off before tonight’s game. They are also getting Domantas Sabonis back after he missed some time to injury. The Kings have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games this season following an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after an upset loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a loss by six points or less. The Kings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles made 49.4% of their shots in their upset win against the Magic which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. This will be their eighth game in the last 14 days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when playing for the eight or more time in the last 14 days. They will be without Norman Powell tonight as he deals with a hamstring injury. He is their leading scorer this season with a 23.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average — he is nailing 49% of his shots and 49% of his shots from behind the arc. The Kings are scoring 116.9 PPG — and Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home against teams scoring 116 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers upset the Kings in Sacramento in the previous meeting between these two teams by a 107-98 score as a 6.5-point road underdog on November 8th. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities to avenge a loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (551) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (547) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (548). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 122-120 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (8-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 127-116 upset win at Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas has lost two games in a row by a combined three points after their 114-113 loss at Phoenix on Friday. The Mavericks enjoyed a 23-9 record in clutch time last season which is defined as games within five points with five minutes to go in the fourth quarter. But so far this season, Dallas has lost four of their five games that qualified for clutch time. A visit from the Regression Gods was expected, but these things should even out in the end. The Mavericks are better than their .500 record — and their ranking seventh in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in non-garbage time is a good barometer of where they are. They allowed the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the second-highest opponent field goal percentage they have allowed this season. Dallas should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after a straight-up loss on the road. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after a loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 road games as an underdog of six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Golden State nailed 50.6% of their shots against the Thunder which was their best shooting mark in their last four games and their third-highest field goal percentage all season. The Warriors have played five straight Overs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. Head coach Steve Kerr is using his entire bench — and he has this team play better on the defensive end of the court. Steph Curry is also back after missing a few games due to injury. But Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games in November.

FINAL TAKE: This will be Klay Thompson’s first game back at the Oracle Center since he left the Warriors in the offseason — so he will have some personal revenge on his mind. He joined a Dallas team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Golden State. Led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks should still score their share of points against the new-look Warriors' defense. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (547) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (540) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (539). THE SITUATION: New York (3-4) has lost two games in a row after their 121-116 upset win at Atlanta as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Milwaukee (2-6) snapped a six-game losing streak with their 123-100 win against Utah as a 10-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York should respond with a strong effort tonight after their upset loss against the Hawks. The Knicks have bounced back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up loss on the road. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Knicks return home for the first time since October 28th to play just for the third time this season. Expect a big game from Jalen Brunson tonight in Madison Square Garden. He has scored at least 36 points in his last three meetings against the Bucks and their drop coverage defensive tactic. New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Milwaukee made  51.2% of their shots last night which was the best scoring effort in their last seven contests. They also held the Jazz to just 42.9% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last five games and tied for their second-best defensive performance of the season. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when playing a second game in back-to-back days. Additionally, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog. This team misses the injured Khris Middleton.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games against teams winning 25-40% of their games. 20* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (540) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (507) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (508). THE SITUATION: New York (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped in their 109-97 upset loss at Houston as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 123-93 loss at home against Boston as a 10-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 38.6% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should bounce back tonight. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Hawks stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 home games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as an underdog. And in their last 40 games in the first half of the season, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread 32 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Atlanta against the Knicks. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Knicks (507) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (553) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (554). THE SITUATION: Orlando (3-1) has won three of their first four games this season after their 119-115 win against Indiana as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Chicago (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 126-123 upset win at Memphis as a 5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Orlando should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after beating their previous opponent by six points or less. The Magic ranked third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the offseason to give them a reliable 3-and-D player in the starting lineup. After ranking 27th in 3-point rate last season, Orlando is not taking 42.5% of their shots from behind the arc. Caldwell-Pope entered the season with a career 36.9% shooting from 3-point range. The Magic have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored in the 3.5-9.5 point range. The Bulls are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game this season with them surrendering 120.5 Points-Per-Game. Orlando has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams getting outscored by -3.0 or more PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road against teams getting outscored by -3.0 or more PPG. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games against teams who are allowing 116 or more PPG. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after an upset win on the road. Head coach Billy Donovan has his team playing at a faster pace — and they are taking their shots quicker in relation to the shot clock now than they do not have to accommodate DeMar DeRozan’s midrange shooting. They are averaging 94 shots per game this season — but the Magic have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams taking 93 or more shots per game. The Bulls are struggling on the defensive end of the court. They lack the size and the physicality to keep up with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Their increased tempo is costing them on the other end of the court as they rank 28th in the NBA in Transition defense. They are also bottom-five in shots allowed at the rim in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at the rim. To compound matters, they will not have Lonzo Ball tonight due to injury which takes away one of their best defensive players. Orlando led the NBA last season in shots at the rim rate — and they are fifth in that category so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Magic have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against the Bulls — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against them in Chicago. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (553) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Utah Jazz (538) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (537). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-3) remains winless to start the season after their 110-102 loss at Dallas as an 11.5-point underdog last night. Sacramento (1-2) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 111-98 victory at home against Portland as a 13-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ PLUS THE POINTS: Utah is probably tanking the season with the draft pick they owe the Oklahoma Thunder being a top-ten protected pick — and the chance to draft Duke’s Cooper Flagg is very enticing. But stealing a victory tonight should be attractive for this team tonight. Led by Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz have some talent — and they typically exceed expectations when playing at home. Utah has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 42 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games at home as an underdog. Additionally, the Jazz have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home in the first half of the season when the pressure to tank is not as great. Sacramento’s slow start this season makes their 0-5 preseason mark a bit more concerning. They acquired DeMar DeRozan in the offseason — but transitioning him into the starting lineup has run into some stumbling blocks relation to chemistry and cohesion. Dealing away Harrison Barnes in that trade might have removed one of the underrated glue players as well. The Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game including their last six games on the road after not allowing more than 100 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games when playing without rest.

FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Utah Jazz (538) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (545) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season on Wednesday in a 123-111 setback at New Orleans as a 5-point underdog. Milwaukee (1-0) won their opener with a 124-109 victory at Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: There is a lot that head coach Billy Donovan can clean up for this Chicago team tonight. They turned the ball over 21 times against the Pelicans. They allowed New Orleans to take 56% of their shots at the rim — and the Pelicans made 80% of those shots. The Bulls only made 40.0% of their shots from the midrange — and they only hit 27.3% of their shots from behind the arc (non-heaves). Still, Chicago took a higher percentage of their shots at the rim which was the likely byproduct of moving on from DeMar DeRozan who took his midrange game to Sacramento. The Bulls still have Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic as the foundation of this team. They acquired Josh Giddy in the offseason and drafted Matas Buzelis in the first round of the NBA draft. Chicago has been very reliable in situations like this under Donovan. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread 4 straight road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Milwaukee had consistency issues last season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points including four of those last five circumstances. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is not at full strength with Khris Middleton out for this game with an ankle injury. Gary Trent is also questionable with an injury. As it is, the Bucks are just 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games when playing with one day of rest. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (545) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (509) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (79-21) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped in their 122-84 upset loss as a 1-point road favorite on Friday. Dallas (63-40) still looks to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 36.2% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 54 games. They also got out-rebounded by a 52 to 31 margin to the Mavericks. The Celtics simply got outworked and outplayed — and they have had the tendency to take their foot off the gas pedal from time-to-time. But they have also been resilient after playing a clunker. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more rebounds in their last game. And while all four games in this series have finished Under the Total, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Dallas played their best game on offense in this series by making 50.5% of their shots. And by holding Boston to 36.2% shooting, they played their best game on defense in their last 48 contests. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after an upset win on their home court. And in their last 6 games after an upset win by 10 or more points, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has suggested that Kristaps Porzingis could take the court tonight in special circumstances — but I am not buying it. While they are clearly a better team when Porzingis is healthy, they remain the best team in the NBA even without him. Back at home, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 210s. 25* NBA Monday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (508) plus (or minus) the points versus the Boston Celtics (507) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-40) has lost the first three games of this series after their 106-99 upset loss as a 3-point favorite at home on Wednesday. Boston (79-20) has a commanding 3-0 lead while riding a 10-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: I expect Dallas to win Game Four on their home court to avoid getting swept. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 41 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 34 of their last 50 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss at home. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Dallas did get more from Kyrie Irving who stepped up to score 35 points after making only 13 of his 37 shots from the field run the first two games of this series. Mavericks backers can point to 2016 when he only scored 36 points on 36 shots in Games One and Two of the NBA Finals against Golden State before returning home and beginning a three-game run where he scored 35 Points-Per-Game on 55.6% shooting and a 50% clip from behind the arc. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning nine or more games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 99 points in this series, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 playoff games when up 3-0 in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is getting outclassed in this series — but they did post a 15-1 record to close out the regular season once Kidd moved to a starting lineup of Luka Doncic and Irving along with Derrick Jones, Jr. and their two trade deadline acquisitions, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington — and they ranked second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during that span. They cruised through the Western Conference playoffs with a 12-5 record including a series against number-one-seeded Oklahoma City and a Minnesota team that dethroned Denver. They are better than their season-long record — and they should avoid the sweep tonight. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games when avenging a same-season loss. 8* NBA Boston-Dallas ABC-TV Special with the Dallas Mavericks (508) plus (or minus) the points versus the Boston Celtics (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (506) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-29) has lost three of their last four games while trailing in this series by an 0-2 margin. Boston (78-20) has won nine games in a row after their 105-98 victory at home against the Mavericks as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: This point spread is fishy — and it looks very easy to take the Celtics. This is just the fourth time all season that Boston has been made an underdog by the books — and the first time since April 9th. The injury to Kristaps Porzingis is not an adequate explanation either since Dallas was initially installed as a -1.5 point favorite — and yesterday’s news that Porzingis might be out moved the line only a point. The Celtics were around 7-point favorites in Game Two — so the implication is that the books are assigning the Mavericks 8.5 or so points for having the home-court edge (or 4-4.5 points when accounting for Boston’s loss of home court). For comparison’s sake, the point spread swing was only six points from when Dallas was a 1.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves in Game Four last round to them being a 4-point road dog in Game Five at Minnesota. At this point, some bettors may see this as an opportunity to take the Celtics because of the perceived point spread value. I tend to fall in the other camp — my instincts tell me that the books are flagging that the Mavericks are the preferred side. Call it “contrarian” to the point spread value perspective. It is of interest that the two previous times in 2024 when Boston was an underdog, they lost on the road by double-digits to Milwaukee — and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were healthy for those games. Then there is the injury to Porzingis. He has sustained a “torn medial retinaculum with an associated dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg.” The medical opinions are wildly divergent about this rare injury — some doctors are claiming that they expect him to play through the injury. The medical opinion I trust concludes surgery is likely and that he will not play in the rest of the NBA Finals. The Celtics have indicated that will not risk further injury either — so I don’t think he will play. His absence takes away the team’s best rim protector. And he was an offensive spark plug in the first half in Game One. As it is, Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning nine or more games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 98 points in this series and 102 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when leading in a playoff series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Dallas needs much more from Kyrie Irving who has made only 13 of his 37 shots from the field. Mavericks backers can point to 2016 when he only scored 36 points on 36 shots in Games One and Two of the NBA Finals against Golden State before returning home and beginning a three-game run where he scored 35 Points-Per-Game on 55.6% shooting and a 50% clip from behind the arc. Hopefully, everyone got Dallas at +7.5 points in Game Two — but that game should have been closer except for Payton Pritchard’s miracle 3-pointer at the logo to end the third quarter and then the terrible non-call double-block on P.J. Washington with less than a minute left that could have made that a one-basket game. Resiliency has been a hallmark of this team that has a 10-5 straight-up record the last two playoff seasons following a loss in the postseason — and they have a 5-2 straight record off a loss in this postseason. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Threes in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas posted a 15-1 record to close out the regular season once Kidd moved to a starting lineup of Doncic and Irving along with Derrick Jones, Jr. and their two trade deadline acquisitions, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington — and they ranked second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during that span. They cruised through the Western Conference playoffs with a 12-5 record including a series against number-one-seeded Oklahoma City and a Minnesota team that dethroned Denver. They are better than their season-long record. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a same-season loss. And while they have lost all four games against the Celtics this season, Dallas has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to end a three-game losing streak to their opponent. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (506) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (503) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 107-89 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 6.5-point underdog on Thursday. Boston (77-20) has won eight straight games while taking a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas got blitzed right out of the gate with the Celtics breaking an NBA Finals record by ending the first quarter with a 17-point lead at 37-20. The Mavericks are vulnerable to starting a new playoff series slow — they had not covered the point spread in five of their last six opening games to a new series and lost Game One to both the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The week off between games and playing on the road probably did not help matters. And Boston saw the return of Kristaps Porzingis who came off the bench to energize the team with 11 points in the first quarter. Dallas attempted to make some runs — but this game was over before it barely started. Now for Game Two, head coach Jason Kidd has some adjustments to make — but the Mavs simply playing better will go a long way. They only made 41.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 7 of 27 shots from behind the arc — and those 27 shot attempts from 3-point land were their second fewest all season. Their 26% shooting percentage from 3-point range was their worst shooting percentage from deep in the postseason — and their players not named Luka Doncic only made 3 of their 15 shots from downtown. The offensive effort will be better in Game Two. Kidd has called on more player movement and more ball movement to get Doncic and Kyrie Irving from getting lulled into playing one-on-one isolation ball. Dallas only had nine assists in the game — and they assisted on just 22.5% of their made field goals. Irving led the team with a mere two assists. The Mavericks assisted on 59.6% of their made baskets in the regular season — so they should be much better in this area in Game Two. The Celtics played Doncic and Irving straight up without offering help when they switched off pick-and-rolls. If Dallas can simply attack this approach with more aggressiveness, they should get better scoring opportunities for Doncic and Irving — and that will open up more 3-point shooting. On defense, Dallas should have a better plan in defending the Celtics’ 3-point shooting. Resiliency has been a hallmark of this team that has a 10-4 straight-up record the last two playoff seasons following a loss in the postseason — and they have a 5-1 straight record off a loss in this postseason including upset victories in Game Two against the Clippers and Thunder following a Game One loss. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after a double-digit loss. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing for the second time in five days. On the road, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games on the road including five of their last six games this postseason. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road against teams from the Eastern Conference. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series. Boston’s biggest challenge has been fighting complacency — but remember that their 12-2 march to the NBA Finals was against three teams all dealing with significant injuries. How this team will handle pressure basketball in the playoffs against a worthy opponent remains a question. As it is, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games following a playoff win by double-digits. They played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Mavs to 41.7% shooting. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 102 points in their last game. And while they have not allowed more than 105 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when leading in a playoff series.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas posted a 15-1 record to close out the regular season once Kidd moved to a starting lineup of Doncic and Irving along with Derrick Jones, Jr. and their two trade deadline acquisitions, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington — and they ranked second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during that span. They cruised through the Western Conference playoffs with a 12-5 record including a series against number-one-seeded Oklahoma City and a Minnesota team that dethroned Denver. They are better than their season-long record. The Celtics have won all three meetings between these two teams with the last two victories being by 18 or more points. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a same-season loss -- and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging two straight double-digit losses to their opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to end a three-game losing streak to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (503) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (502)
minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (76-20) has won seven straight games after completing their four-game sweep against Indiana with a 105-102 win on the road as a 7.5-point road favorite back on May 27th. Dallas (62-37) has won six of their last seven games after their 124-103 upset win at Minnesota as a 4.5-point underdog that ended that series in five games last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston has a huge advantage in Game One tonight since they are rested having not played since May 27th. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when playing with three or more days of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. And while rust is always a concern given such a long layoff, they are not facing an opponent still locked in with playoff intensity who just finished off a long series. The Mavericks may be rusty as well having the last week off since eliminating the Timberwolves. Boston also gets Kristaps Porzingis back for this game — and his return gives the team one of their three best players back in the mix. Without Porzingis in these playoffs, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Dallas played their best defensive game in their last three contests by holding the Timberwolves to 42.7% shooting last Thursday. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after pulling off an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit upset win as a road underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is outscoring their opponents by +11.1 Points-Per-Game — and the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games in the second half of the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 or more PPG. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 44 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (502) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (511) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (61-37) had won five games in a row before their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (65-32) still trails by a 3-1 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: After dominating the Timberwolves in crunch time in the first three games in this series, Dallas looked poised to pull out another one on Tuesday when Luka Doncic got fouled while converting a long three-pointer late in that game. But Doncic missed the free throw and the T-Wolves pulled out the victory. Credit Minnesota for making some defensive adjustments and finally playing better in the clutch — but perhaps being down 0-3 in the series took away the pressure that had been impacting them. The Mavericks only shot 42.0% from the field in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They made only 14 of 40 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they missed 12 of their 17 open 3-point attempts. Dallas should shoot better tonight. They should also play better defense after allowing the Timberwolves to make 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 12 games. The Mavericks allowed Minnesota to make 50.6% of their shots in Game Two — but they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. They have demonstrated their resilience by covering the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have still won seven of their last nine games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Dallas goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog. Minnesota played their best defensive game in this series by holding the Mavs to 42.0% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 22 games by making 52.7% of their shots. Karl-Anthony Towns played his best game in the series — by far — by scoring 25 points on 9 of 13 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc including three in the fourth quarter. Towns has struggled in clutch time — and he has been inconsistent when playing at home in these playoffs. In his last five playoff games at home since the second round, Towns is scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game on 32.3% shooting and just a 29.6% clip from behind the arc. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a win by six points or less. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (511) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (64-32) has lost six of their last eight games after their 116-107 loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (61-36) has won five games in a row and seven of their last eight to take a 3-0 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last six contests by allowing the Mavericks to make 55.9%. of their shots. They did nail 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting performance in their last nine contests — so that is encouraging. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after losing three of their last four games. And while they have lost six of their last eight games, the Timberwolves have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games with the Total set in the 210s. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when facing elimination in the playoff series. Dallas nailed 55.9% of their shots which was their best shooting performance in their last 44 games. The Mavs are due a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their shooting in this series. While they are making 58.1% of their shots, their expected field goal percentage which measures their shot location relative to league shooting averages is just 53.0%. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after shooting 55% or better from the field in their last game. They have made at least 48.8% of their shots in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making at least 47% or more of their shots in five or more games in a row. All three of the games in this series finished Over the Total — and the Mavs have lost 27 of their last 42 home games after playing an Over in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 62 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 8* NBA Minnesota-Dallas TNT Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (503) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (504) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION:  Minnesota (64-31) got upset for the second straight time in this series with their 109-108 upset loss as a 6-point favorite on Friday. Dallas (60-36) has won four straight games while returning home with a 2-0 series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota has lost both games in clutch time with their stars struggling to make key baskets while Luka Doncic takes care of business when he has the basketball. But it is unlikely that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will combine to make only 9 of the 33 shots they combined to take on Friday. The Timberwolves are only making 53.8% of their shots at the rim in this series. Their shooting percentage of 51.2% is significantly off from their expected field goal percentage of 55.1% when measuring league averages from where they are taking their shots. The Timberwolves have been reliable when playing on the road. Minnesota has won and covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games on the road this postseason. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games after a point spread loss. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when playing no more than the fourth time in ten days. Towns, in particular, has been a road warrior. He is scoring 23.2 Points-Per-Game on the road in these playoffs while nailing 49% of his 3-point shots. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have lost five of their last seven games, they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games as an underdog. Dallas held the T-Wolves to just 41.2% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset victory -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Dallas has played three straight games that finished Over the Total. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games at home after playing an Over in their last game -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after playing two or more Overs in a row. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss at home -- and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year is with the Minnesota Timberwolves (503) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (55-43) has lost the opening two games of this series after their 126-110 loss on the road against the Celtics as an 8.5-point underdog on Thursday. Boston (74-20) has won five games in a row and nine of their last ten contests. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tyrese Haliburton has been declared out for tonight’s game due to the hamstring injury he suffered in the third quarter in Game Two. Despite this turn of events, I’m investing in Indiana tonight. First, we are betting numbers, not teams. The books had already adjusted the line because of the injury — Boston opened as a 6.5 road favorite which was just two points off what they were laying at home in Game Two. The confirmation that Haliburton will not play tonight has led to the Celtics laying another point or so with -7.5s out there now. The loss of Haliburton has probably been overstated. While he was spectacular in the first half of the season (and the Play-In Tournament), he simply has not been the same since suffering a hamstring injury in January. Since January 8th in the regular season, Haliburton’s scoring dropped to 16.9 Points-Per-Game on 45.4% shooting from the field and a low 32.3% clip from behind the arc. With Haliburton out, the onus is on his teammates to step up. Pascal Siakam should continue to enjoy a great series against a Celtics team that lacks a rim protector with Kristaps Porzingis still injured. Siakam is scoring 26 PPG on 62.5% shooting from the field — and he is adding 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game. The Pacers’ role players play better at home — they are an unbeaten 6-0 at home this postseason with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG. They are scoring 119.2 PPG at home in the playoffs. This team can certainly work harder on defense after allowing Boston to make 53.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Additionally, Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 41 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games after a point spread loss. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Furthermore, Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. Boston may be undermanned tonight as well with Jrue Holiday questionable with an illness. The Celtics’ 53.4% shooting on Thursday was their best shooting performance in their last seven games. Boston has not done much to slow the Pacers’ offense down — Indiana has shot 52.4% and 53.5% from the field in both games. The Celtics have played four straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. After playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after winning there or more games in a row on their home court. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (551) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (552) in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (58-36) has won four of their last five games after their five games after their 117-116 ivory against Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Saturday to end that series in six games. Minnesota (64-29) has won two games in a row with their 98-90 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog at Denver on Sunday winning that series in seven games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas beat the Thunder despite allowing them to make 47.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Dallas has one extra day of rest than what the T-Wolves have which should help them out tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when playing for only the second time in the last five days. The Mavericks made 52.6% and 51.2% of their shots in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Dallas has been a good road team all season — they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games as an underdog of up to six points. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after their upset victory on the road to dethrone the defending champions. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. They host the first two games in this series -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 home games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota won three of the four regular season meetings between these two teams after taking the last game between these two teams by a 121-87 score at home as a 13-point favorite on January 31st. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 10* NBA Dallas-Minnesota TNT Special with the Dallas Mavericks (551) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (550) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (549) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (72-20) has won 10 of their last 12 games after their 113-98 victory against Cleveland as a 15.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Indiana (55-41) has won four of their last five games after their 130-109 upset victory in New York as a 2.5-point underdog in Game Seven of that series on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pacers made 67.1% of their shots on Sunday in a stunning display which was the best shooting effort in their last 57 games and second-best performance of the season. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making 60% of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a victory by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after a double-digit victory. Indiana’s rally from a 3-2 series deficit started by beating the Knicks by a 116-103 victory in Game Six — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points. Boston allowed the Cavaliers to make 48.1% of their shots while ending that series in five games which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games — so they should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. The Celtics will also benefit from getting almost a full week off — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. Boston hosts the first two games of this series at their TD Garden where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have a big edge with their play on defense in this series — they allow only 107.9 Points-Per-Game while the Pacers allow their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots. Boston has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games in the second half of the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 48% or higher — and Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not allow more than 108 PPG on the season. 10* NBA Indiana-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (550) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-29) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 115-70 loss on the road against the Timberwolves on Thursday. Minnesota (63-29) has won seven of their last ten games while evening this series at 3-3. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver earned a mulligan in this series after rallying from losing the first two games of this series with three straight victories by a combined 50 points. The Nuggets only made 30.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort of their season — and their 70 points were also a season-low. But Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by ten or more points to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Nuggets started Game Six slow by trailing at the half by a 59-40 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. Minnesota played their best defensive game of the season by holding Denver to 30.2% shooting. But the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games on the road after playing a game at home where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. And while Minnesota had not covered the point spread in three straight games before Game Six, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (542) minus the points versus the the Indiana Pacers (541) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series after their 116-103 loss as a 5-point underdog on the road on Friday. Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with that triumph.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York should play better this afternoon after blowing their opportunity to end this series on Friday. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 41 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 26 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 17 of these contests. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 49 games after a point spread win. The Pacers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set from 200 to 209.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when averring a double-digit loss on the road. 8* NBA Indiana-New York ABC-TV Special with the New York Knicks (542) minus the points versus the the Indiana Pacers (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (532) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (63-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 104-92 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (57-36) can close things out tonight given their 3-2 series lead. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City allowed the Mavericks to make 52.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City ranked fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season — and they have still held five of their last seven opponents to no higher than 42.9% shooting. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. The last two games in this series have seen only 196 combined points scored in each game — and Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last six games by making 52.6% of their shots. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory in their last game. They return home where they rank only 10th of the 16 playoff teams in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this postseason.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games when playing with revenge. 8* NBA Oklahoma City-Dallas ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (525) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-29) has lost three straight games in this series after their 112-97 loss as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver (64-28) has taken a 3-2 series lead.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 55.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. After Denver took 47% of their shots at the rim — and made 73.5% of these attempts — look for Rudy Gobert to go back to protecting the rim and daring Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to beat them with their shooting in a hostile environment. The last three games in this series have finished Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing their last game. The youth and depth of this Minnesota team should help them tonight since they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in ten days. Denver's offensive explosion continued in Game Five as they nailed 55.0% of their shots making it their third straight game where they made at least 53.7% of their shots. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games after making 55.0% or more of their shots in their last game. They have covered the point spread in their last three victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a double-digit win at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 35 opportunities when motivated by revenge. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-36) has lost the last two games of this series after their 121-89 loss on the road to the Pacers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (53-40) has won six of their last nine games while evening this best-of-seven series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks are a M*A*S*H unit right now with O.G. Anunoby now out indefinitely and enjoying Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and Bojan Bogdanovic in street clothes for this team. But if there is a silver lining to a loss by 32 points, it is that the starting five got benched and rested for this crucial fifth game. Returning home to a raucous Madison Square Garden, expect an inspired effort from Jalen Brunson and company. New York has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Knicks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing two games in a row on the road. New York only made 33.7% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. They also allowed the Pacers to make 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 35 contests. Games Three and Four finished Under the Total — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Indiana played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Knicks to 33.7% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last ten games by nailing 56.8% of their shots. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games after a point spread win. Indiana is dealing with their own injuries — most notably, Tyrese Haliburton has been slowed with back spasms and a right ankle. This might be the game he needs to exhale after leading his team to two victories at home. The Pacers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 210s. 

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (515) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (516) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (62-27) was on a 10-game winning streak before losing the last two games in this series after their 105-101 loss on the road against the Mavericks on Saturday. Dallas (56-35) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma City should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after playing a game where neither team scored more than 105 points in their last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 38 road games as an underdog of up to six points. The strong play they have demonstrated on the defensive end of the court should help them tonight — they are holding their playoff opponents to just 41.1% shooting which is resulting in only 96.7 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their previous game by four points or less. Luka Doncic only scored 22 points on 7 of 17 shooting (41.1%) shooting — and he missed three of his four shots from behind the arc. With Doncic still nursing a sprained right knee and now a sore left ankle issue, his effectiveness will continue to be a question — and don’t underestimate the struggles he may have on defense. A less than full-strength Doncic is a problem for a Mavericks team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more Points-Per-Game. The Thunder are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG this season. 

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (515) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (511) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-27) had won six games in a row before their 117-90 loss to the Nuggets as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Denver (62-28) won their first game in this series but still trail by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play much better on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. They also made only 43.7% of their shots in what was the worst shooting performance in their last 12 contests. The T-Wolves have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss by double-digits. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last ten games with their 53.7% shooting clip. They also played their best defensive game in their last games by holding the T-Wolves to 43.7% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against a Northwest Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 20 or more points against a division opponent.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Denver-Minnesota ABC-TV Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (505) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (62-26) had their ten-game winning streak snapped in a 119-110 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (55-35) has won five of their last seven games while evening this series at 1-1. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City has been playing great basketball this postseason — it is telling that the Mavericks’ 46.7% shooting percentage was the worst defensive performance in their last seven games. Head coach Mark Daigneault has some adjustments available to him. Look for the Thunder to be more focused on pressuring the Mavericks off the 3-point line and coaxing them to rely on Luka Doncic in the half-court. Doncic rebounded on Thursday by scoring 29 points on 11 of 21 shooting — but he remains hampered by a nagging right knee injury. Expect Aaron Wiggins to continue to get more playing time for Josh Giddey as well — Oklahoma City was outplayed by -20 points in the 13 minutes he played in Game Two. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They had covered the point spread in four straight games before Thursday’s nine-point loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They should continue to benefit from all the time off they earned after sweeping New Orleans in the first round — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. Oklahoma City has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 road games as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas got a surprising shooting performance from P.J. Washington who nailed 7 of his 10 shots from behind the arc on Thursday. But Kyrie Irving’s 9 points from 2 of 8 shooting is cause for concern — especially when considering how important Game Two was for them with Doncic not 100%. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset victory. And while that final score flew Over the 217.5-point Total, Dallas has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (505) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-80 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (62-26) has won six games in a row as they return home with a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves entered this series feisty to dethrone the defending NBA champions who ousted them from the playoffs last season. Anthony Edwards is generating comparisons to Michael Jordan. Slow down. I still expect this to be a long series. Denver lost a close game in the opener of this series — and they were simply flat in Game Two perhaps thinking they could casually flip the switch. They only made 34.9% of their shots which was the second worst shooting effort of their season and lowest field goal percentage in their last 73 games. Nikola Jokic was too passive on Monday as he often deferred to his teammates on offense. After receiving the Most Valuable Player Award on Wednesday after that embarrassing effort in Game Two, expect a very aggressive Joker tonight. And look for the Nuggets to get back to playing harder on defense — especially in transition where they have surrendered points at a whopping 190 points per 100 possession rate. Championship lethargy is nearly undefeated — but Denver has also demonstrated consistent resiliency after bad efforts in the Jokic era. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games and in five of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The four days off this week should help them readjust mentally to the challenge of this series — and it should help players like Jamal Murray get healthier. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. They have allowed the T-Wolves to make 52.4% and 50% in both games in this series — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. More activity on defense should help — after forcing 14 turnovers that generated into 26 points in Game One, the Nuggets forced 12 turnovers in Game Two but only got two points from them. More focus and attention on the restricted area should also pay dividends. After averaging 29 shots per game in the restricted area last round against the Lakers, they are averaging 27.7 shots per game in the restricted area this round but making only 54.5% of these shots. Minnesota won Game Two even without Rudy Gobert who missed the game due to the birth of his child. But a letdown may be coming now — the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in the previous 3 times in the last three years they were riding a six-game point spread cover run. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Holding Denver to just 34.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last 34 games. The Regression Gods are probably due to make an appearance regarding their shooting in this series as well. They are making 40.4% of their 3s against Denver — and they are nailing 49% of their midrange jumpers including 50% of their long midrange shots which leads all teams in the second round of the playoffs. The Timberwolves return home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home when favored by up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (502) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-40) has lost three of their last four games after their 130-121 loss on the road to the Knicks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (56-34) has won four of their last five games while taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made a healthy 51.6% of their shots — but that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Of greater concern is that they allowed the Knicks to nail 57.0% of their shots in what was the worst defensive performance in their last 44 games. Expect the Pacers to play better on that end of the court tonight — and look for head coach Rick Carlisle to give more minutes to T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin since they are two of the team’s better defensive players. The Knicks made 53.7% of their shots in Game One — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Their last three opponents are averaging a 51.0% shooting clip against them — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after allowing their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. New York enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 18 games by making 57.0% of their shots. They were fortunate to nail 67% of their contested shots — but they did only make 44% of their uncontested shots so perhaps the magic changes now away from Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making 55.0% or more of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their 3 games this season when they scored 130 or more points. They are becoming a M*A*S*H unit now — Mitchell Robinson suffered a season-ending injury in Game One and O.G. Anunoby is out tonight from an injury on Wednesday. Even Jalen Brunson is questionable tonight with a right foot injury. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 opportunities for revenge. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Indiana Pacers (502) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (553) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-27) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-99 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Minnesota (61-26) has won five games in a row after that triumph. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver allowed the Timberwolves to nail 52.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nuggets should play better tonight after that wake-up call which cost them a home-court advantage in this series. Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss at home. And while the Nuggets have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. Minnesota enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 12 games by making 52.4% of their shots. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in five or more games in a row. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after winning three or more games in a row. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning five or more games in a row. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 home games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when avenging an upset loss at home. 20* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (556) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (555) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (54-34) has won nine of their last 11 games after upsetting Philadelphia by a 118-115 score as a 3-point underdog to end that series in six games on Thursday. Indiana (51-38) has won eight of their last 11 games after their 120-98 win against Milwaukee as a 6-point favorite to end that series in six games on Thursday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pacers held an undermanned Bucks team to just 42.2 % which was their best defensive effort in their last 13 games. They also made 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting performance in their last four games. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory by 20 or more points on their home court. Furthermore, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s. Indiana has a depth advantage in this series — but with both teams playing with four days of rest, the Knicks’ seven-man rotation should not be an issue tonight. New York has great chemistry led by their Villanova trio of Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo. When those three former Wildcats join O.G. Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup, they have a strong Adjusted Net Efficiency margin of +15.1. And when Miles McBride replaces Anunoby to play with those four, the Knicks post a +33.1 Adjusted Net Efficiency which is the second-best mark for any group of five who have played at least 200 minutes together. New York has covered the point spread in 51 of their last 85 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

FINAL TAKE: Indiana won two of the three meetings between these teams in the regular season — but New York won the only time the current starting lineups went up against each other in a 109-105 victory at Madison Square Garden on February 1st. The Pacers won the final time these two teams played back on February 10th by a 125-111 score at MSG — but the Knicks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing with revenge from a loss by double-digits. 10* NBA Indiana-Milwaukee TNT Special with the New York Knicks (556) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (530) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (529) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-26) has won five of their last six games after their 108-106 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (60-26) has won four games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against the Phoenix Suns with a 122-116 victory as a pick ‘em on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver only made 31.4% of their shots from behind the arc in their series against the Lakers. They shoot 38.4% from 3-point land when playing at home — and they converted on 39% of their 3s in the playoffs against the Timberwolves last year. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games at home after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 17 games when playing with three or more days of rest, Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. Minnesota controlled the offensive glass against the Suns — they grabbed 36% of their missed shots in that series. But the Timberwolves pulled down only 21.6% of their missed shots against the Nuggets in their playoff series last year. Minnesota had it easy against Phoenix — but this is now a big step up in competition. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Denver won the series in five games against the Timberwolves last season — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new playoff series when their starting five is healthy. 10* NBA Minnesota-Denver TNT Special with the Denver Nuggets (530) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (527) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (528) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-34) has lost six of their last eight games after their 123-93 loss at home to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Dallas (53-34) has a 3-2 series lead with the chance to close out the series tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers allowed the Mavericks to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 contests. They miss Kawhi Leonard who remains an outstanding defender — but head coach Ty Lue will demand a better effort from his players on that end of the court. They should shoot better than 37.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games in this series. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games when trailing in the playoff series. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine games by nailing 54.0% of their shots. And they played their best game on the other end of the court in their last three games by holding the Clippers to a 37.9% field goal percentage. The Mavericks were red-hot down the stretch by winning 16 of 18 games before tanking the final two regular season games since their spot as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs was clinched. But only one of their 16 victories during that stretch was against a top-six seed in either conference — and that upset win at home against Denver required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from Kyrie Irving to steal that game. Dallas is below .500 with a 25-28 straight-up record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (527) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (511) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset loss in overtime at home to the 76ers as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Philadelphia (50-38) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after playing their previous game at home. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after an upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after an upset win as a road dog. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win against a divisional rival. 

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 8* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the New York Knicks (511) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (50-38) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 115-92 upset loss on the road to the Bucks as a 5-point road favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (51-36) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana allowed the Bucks to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also let them shoot 51.1% from the field in Game Four — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after allowing their last two opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. The Pacers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss to a Central Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a divisional opponent. Additionally, Indiana has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit setback. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable as he deals with back spasms but he should continue to play through the pain. Despite being without the injured Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, Milwaukee enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last eight games with their 52.4% field goal percentage. Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis both scored 29 points — and even Patrick Beverley stepped up with 13 points and 12 rebounds. But with Antetokounmpo and Lillard not likely to the court again tonight, it is difficult to expect these players to approach those numbers again. As it is, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 46 of their last 68 games after an upset win against a Central Division opponent. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their 41 games this season. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when avenging a same-season loss. Additionally, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Indiana TNT Special with the Indiana Pacers (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (505) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (506) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (52-34) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-111 upset loss at home to the Clippers on Monday. Los Angeles (53-33) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Mavericks may have gotten complacent in Game Four with the news that Kawhi Leonard would not play due to his right knee. Los Angeles raced out of the gates to take a huge 30-point lead in the first half and went into the locker room with a 66-49 lead. Dallas battled back and almost stole the game — but they dug themselves too big a hole. They should start this game much better and play better on defense. They allowed the Clippers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. The Mavericks have been resilient after bad losses as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in five days. Dallas goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting game in their last nine contests by making 53.7% of their shots. Paul George and James Harden combined to make 11 of their 15 shots from behind the arc — but they are not likely to repeat a 73% shooting percentage from 3-point range. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win on the road including those last five circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after enjoying a halftime of 15 or more points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when playing with two days of rest. They will once again be without Leonard who is still nursing his right knee. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games at home as the dog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games on the road when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (505) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (570) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (569) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (50-36) has lost two games in a row in this series after their 112-89 loss on the road to the Magic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Orlando (49-37) has evened this best-of-seven series at 2-2. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed Orlando to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Magic made 51.1% of their shots against them in their 38-point victory in Game Three on Thursday as well — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 50% or better shooting from their opponent in two games in a row. Cleveland should play better tonight after getting blown in both games in Orlando. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a loss by 15 or more points. And in their last 7 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Cleveland has not scored more than 97 points in this series — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 105 points in four or more games in a row. They return home where they rank 10th in the NBA in the regular season in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they make 48.6% of their shots on their home court including 37.7% of their 3s resulting in 113.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games as a pick ‘em or as a favorite of up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after losing of their last three games. Orlando enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 25 games by making 55.8% of their shots on Saturday. But the Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Orlando has a 31-11 record when playing at home — and their +2.2 Adjusted Net Efficiency margin at home ranks 12th in the league. But it is a different story on the road where they drop to 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency rating of -3.5. They fall to 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road where they score -2.5 fewer PPG and make -1.5% fewer shots. Their play on defense is not as good on the road either as they allow their home hosts to make 48.3% of their shots resulting in 111.3 PPG which is +1.1% and +3.7 PPG above their season average. Overall, the Magic have an under .500 18-26 record away from home where they get outscored by -3.8 PPG. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. 

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge motivations. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Cleveland Cavaliers (570) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (555) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (59-26) has won the first three games of this series as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 126-109 victory on the road against the Suns as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. Phoenix (49-36) hopes to stave off elimination trailing 3-0 in this series. 

REASONS TO THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has won all three of the games in this series by 12 or more points. If they were significant road favorites tonight, I might have been persuaded to take the Suns in a save-face spot to avoid getting swept with some point-spread insurance. But with the market moving on Kevin Durant (once again), let’s jump on the better team in a pick ‘em situation (or even as an underdog in some spots). As it is, the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning two or more games in a row by double-digits. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The T-Wolves outrebounded the Suns by a 50-28 margin on Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrebounding their last opponent by 20 or more rebounds. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when not playing for more than the fourth time in ten days. And in their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 210s, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Additionally, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. 

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games as a pick ‘em or as an underdog getting up to six points. 8* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves (555) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (553) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (553) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (49-37) has won six of their last eight games after their 121-118 win in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Milwaukee (50-35) lost for the fourth time in their last five games and now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight after he first twisted his ankle in Game Three before later wrenching his Achilles in the fourth quarter. While Lillard declared that he expected to play after the game, he was in a walking boot yesterday and was listed as doubtful. Milwaukee does not want to risk Lillard aggravating that injury the way Golden State did with Kevin Durant a few years ago. The team is already without Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doubtful to return from his calf injury. Khris Middleton stepped up with 42 points on Friday — but now he is being asked to carry the team on offense which is not his strength. Lillard scored 28 points in Game Three. As it is, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road as an underdog. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games when playing for the second time in five days. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Indiana TNT Special with the Indiana Pacers (553) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-38) looks to avoid getting swept in this opening-round series after their 112-105 upset loss as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Denver (60-25) has won seven of their last eight games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles faces a near-impossible task to overcome a 3-0 deficit to the reigning NBA champions. But this one is for pride to avoid getting swept by the Nuggets in two straight postseasons and at least go into the offseason with their 11-game losing streak against them snapped. LeBron James will demand a big effort from his team — and his history demonstrates that he does not take a knee when his team is attempting to avoid a sweep in a playoff series. In those four previous playoff games when his team was down 0-3, James has scored 29.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 8.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and 9.5 Assists-Per-Game in 44 minutes per contest. The Lakers only made 5 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Thursday — expect them to shoot better than 19% from 3-point range. They also allowed the Nuggets to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 105 points. If there is one vulnerability of this Nuggets team (outside their depth), it is that they can get complacent. Becoming a little too dependent on the dopamine rush of digging themselves out of a big deficit tends to be a problem for defending champions — and Denver seems to crave this euphoria when playing this Lakers team. Los Angeles held a double-digit lead once again in Game Three after owning a 59-44 halftime lead in Game Two and enjoying a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter in Game One. The Nuggets are going to assume they can simply flip the switch once again. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven boards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding four straight opponents by five or more rebounds. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as a favorite of less than 11 points. The 12th time’s the charm for the Lakers tonight. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (541) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (50-35) had won four of their last five games before their 121-83 loss on the road against the Magic as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Orlando (48-37) had lost five of six games before the victory to now trail in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland may have been overconfident in Game Three after dominating the first two games of this series. They allowed the Magic to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games Even worse, the Cavaliers only made 39.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 48 games. They should play better this afternoon. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by ten or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road by ten or more points. Orlando played their best defensive game in their last 11 contests by holding the Cavaliers to 39.0% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting game in their last nine contests by nailing 51.1% of their shots. After only making 23.6% of their 3s in Games One and Two, Orlando managed to convert on 13 of their 37 shots from behind the arc for a 35.1% shooting mark. Unfortunately for the Magic, Thursday’s performance looks like an outlier for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games this month. Additionally, while Orlando has not allowed more than 96 points in the last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last ten days. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (541) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.