10-22-24 |
UTEP v. Louisiana Tech OVER 48.5 |
Top |
10-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). THE SITUATION: UTEP (1-6) snapped their six-game losing streak to start the season with a 30-21 upset victory as a 7-point underdog last Wednesday. Louisiana Tech (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after a 33-30 loss in overtime at New Mexico State last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent going into their bye week at the end of last month. Third-year head coach Sonny Cumbie took advantage of that reset by benching junior Jack Turner and turning to redshirt freshman Evan Bullock at quarterback. Louisiana Tech responded by scoring 48 points in a 27-point victory at home against Middle Tennessee. Their 30 points were not enough to stave off the upset loss to the Aggies last week — but the Bulldogs have played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss in their last game. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games in October Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Conference USA rivals. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. On paper, the Bulldogs are playing much better defense than they did last season. They have held four of their six opponents to 23 or fewer points — and they rank 19th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. But they have benefited from an easy strength of schedule so far with four of their opponents ranked 117th or worse in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating system. UTEP generated 372 yards and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week in their nine-point upset win against the Golden Panthers. The Miners go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is generating 254.5 passing Yards-Per-Game this season — and UTEP has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. The Miners are giving up 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bulldogs have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 |
Top |
15-37 |
Loss |
-111 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-24 |
Yankees v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: New York (99-70) had won four games in a row before their 7-5 loss in ten innings on the road against the Guardians on Thursday. Cleveland (96-73) had lost the first two games in this series before that victory yesterday to make this a 2-1 series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games at home. Williams gets the ball tonight after posting a disappointing 3-10 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 16 starts in the regular season. The right-hander posted a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 starts in his rookie campaign last season — but an elbow injury set him back and played a significant role in his sophomore slump. He has not pitched since September 22nd so getting almost the month off may help him regain his rookie form tonight. The deeper sabermetrics suggested he should have seen better results. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.14. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.19 and 4.12 moving forward from his 2024 numbers. Cleveland has played 12 of their 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record with Williams on the mound. They have also played 11 of their 17 games Under the Total with Williams starting in a night game. He faces a Yankees team that ranked 18th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York has played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total on the road. They counter with Gil who had a 15-7 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 29 starts in the regular season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts as compared to his 3.57 ERA in 15 starts at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when Gil is starting against a team winning 54-62% of their games. He faces a Guardians team that ranks 21st and 16th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of the starting pitchers tonight will get pulled early if they are not effective — and both bullpens are outstanding. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. New York’s bullpen has a 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in their last seven games. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-24 |
Bills v. Jets UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
23-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-24 |
Tigers v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 1:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Detroit (90-78) had won two games in a row in this best-of-five series before their 5-4 loss at home in Game Four on Thursday. Cleveland (94-71) forced this climactic fifth game with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have only scored ten combined runs in their four games in this series. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. The Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games on the road, the Under is 4-0-1. The Total is set at 6 because the likely American League Cy Young Award winner takes the mound in this one. Skubal had an 18-4 record in the regular season with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 31 starts. While the deeper sabermetrics rarely project even lower ERAs than ones in that range, his underlying numbers remain quite good. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.70. In his two starts in this postseason, he has not given up an earned run with a 0.62 WHIP. In his last seven starts including his two in these playoffs, the left-hander has a 1.01 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. In those 44 2/3 innings, he has struck out 49 batters and has only issued three walks (not a typo). This game was moved up to the afternoon with rain expected in Cleveland later this evening — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Skubal on the mound for a day game. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after allowing four or more runs in their last game. The Guardians return home where the Under is 14-1-1 in their last 16 games at Progressive Field. Boyd gets the ball after pitching 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in his start in Game Two of this series. In his eight starts in the regular season after coming off the injured list for most of the season, the left-hander has a 2-2 record along with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His xERA was 3.10 in those eight starts. He was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in four starts as opposed to his 3.26 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in four starts on the road. His teams in his career have played 9 of his last 12 starts at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog with him on the mound. Furthermore, Boyd had a 1.74 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in his two starts in the daytime this season. He faces a Tigers team that ranked 28th in MLB in the regular season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With everything on the line in this fifth game and the off day on Friday, both managers will have full disposal of every pitcher on the roster (including the starting pitchers) for this one — and they will be throwing as hard as possible (now more than ever). Cleveland has played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 49 |
Top |
36-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-24 |
Yankees v. Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: New York (96-69) has won three of their last four games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (89-78) looks to avoid elimination tonight by trailing this best-of-seven series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 10-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 15 games after a win. The Under is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams from the AL Central. Cole gets the ball looking to build on his 8-5 record in the regular season along with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts. He looks to bounce back from a subpar effort in Game One of this series when he allowed four runs (three earned runs) in five innings of work. The right-hander surrendered one earned run or less in four of his last five and seven of their last nine contests. In his last ten starts in the regular season, he had a 2.25 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP to regain his form as one of the best starting pitchers in MLB after dealing with injuries earlier in the year. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with Cole on the mound and the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Cole is making his 16th start in the postseason tonight after posing a 3.07 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in those 91 playoff innings. Kansas City has played 48 of their last 75 games Under the Total after a loss — including eight Unders in their last nine games following a loss. They have played 22 of their last 37 games at home Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. Furthermore, the Royals have played 24 of their last 37 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when listed in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Wacha who has a 13-8 record along with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. After an up-and-down start, the right-hander has posted a 2.72 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in his last 22 starts in the regular season. He has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.89 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts as opposed to his 3.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have played 4 straight Unders when he is their starting pitcher trailing in a playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have scored 11 runs apiece in the first three games of this series to continue hitting slumps last month. Kansas City ranks 29th and 30th in MLB in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York ranks 18th in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers (after ranking in the top-ten or better in both those categories in every prior month for the rest of the season). 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-24 |
Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (96-69) looks to avoid elimination and force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five series after losing Game Three by a 7-2 score on Tuesday. New York (93-75) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. They turn to Suarez for Game Four -- he has a 12-8 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 27 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.96 and 3.70 moving forward. In his six starts during the day, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has struggled in the second half of the season as he dealt with a back injury. In his last 11 starts, he had a 6.53 ERA and a 2.24 WHIP — and in his last four starts, he was saddled with a 7.80 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. He faces a Mets team that ranks third in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. Both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA at 4.06 and 3.92 moving forward. The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound. They have also played 22 of their last 36 games at home at Citi Field Over the Total. The left-hander faces a Phillies team that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 36 of their last 53 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB National League East Playoffs Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-24 |
Saints v. Chiefs UNDER 43 |
Top |
13-26 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-24 |
Texas Tech v. Arizona UNDER 64 |
Top |
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-24 |
Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-69) completed their two-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in the wildcard round of the MLB playoffs with a 5-4 victory on Wednesday. Los Angeles (98-64) has won five games in a row to conclude their regular season after a 2-1 win at Colorado last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games after winning their previous contest. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Over is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. They have also played 37 of their last 60 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Yamamoto gets the ball tonight with a 7-2 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.44. He has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in ten starts as compared to his 2.06 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total with Yamamoto on the mound. He faces a Padres team that ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has played 24 of their last 40 games Over the Total as an underdog. They counter with Cease who has a 14-11 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts. He has been at his best at home at Petco Park where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.83 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks third and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 32 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams using a right-handed pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NL West rivals. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-24 |
Mets v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (919) and the Milwaukee Brewers (920) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: New York (90-73) has won three of their last four games after taking the opening game of this best-of-three wildcard series with their 8-4 victory. Milwaukee (93-70) has lost two games in a row as they try to keep their season alive.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not giving up more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 26 of their last 41 road games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Brewers are outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Runs-Per-Game, New York has played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more RPG. Manaea takes the mound with his 12-6 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.75. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.97 and a 4.04 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 16 starts on the road. Interestingly, his xFIP at home is 3.34 but that mark rises to a 4.77 xFIP when he is pitching on the road. He has a K%-BB% rate of 21.3% when pitching at home — but that ratio drops to just 11.6% when on the road. Manaea pitched better in the second half of the season after he adopted Chris Sale’s arm angle in his delivery. But in his last start of the regular season, he got hit hard — and it was against this Brewers team that had great success against his best pitch which is his sinker. Milwaukee scored six runs against him (five earned) in 3 2/3 innings while banging out seven hits against him. Manaea has only pitched 3 1/3 innings in the postseason — but he has been rocked for a 24.30 ERA in those appearances. His teams have played 20 of their last 33 road games Over the Total when he is on the mound as an underdog up to +150. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 43-31-8 in their last 81 games at home. They counter with Montas who has a 7-11 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 30 starts. His xERA only drops slightly to 4.71 — so he is not a regression candidate. He has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 4.95 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in 14 starts as opposed to his 4.75 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 16 starts on the road. He has only pitched one inning in the postseason in his career. He faces a Mets team that ranks 11th and 15th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won the last two meetings between these two teams — and Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB National League Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (919) and the Milwaukee Brewers (920) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-24 |
Seahawks v. Lions UNDER 47 |
Top |
29-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.
FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. First-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer needs to get this defense on the same page after the early reviews were great when they held Cleveland to just 230 yards and 17 points in their opener. Getting an appearance from the Regression Gods regarding their Red Zone defense will help immensely. Dallas’ opponents have scored touchdowns on 90% of their trips inside their 20-yard line this season. The NFL average tends to be in the 55% range regarding touchdown proficiency once in the Red Zone. The Browns had the worst Red Zone defense last season with opponents scoring touchdowns in 71% of their trips inside the Cowboys’ 20-yard line — so that 90% clip is, thankfully for Dallas fans, unsustainable. Dallas ranked fifth in the league by only giving up 299.7 total Yards-Per-Game last season — and they ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Facing the new Saints offense that is leaning heavily into pre-snap motion and play-action passes in Week Two before the always difficult task for NFC teams in playing Lamar Jackson who presents such a unique threat with his legs probably explains the slow start on that side of the ball. As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The concerns about the offense are more troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength of this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants' defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Quarterback Daniel Jones posted a Passer Rating of 110 last week — but let’s not read too much into that since Pro Football Focus assigned him the third worst grade last week ahead of just Anthony Richardson and Skylar Thompson. Jones is another QB with disparate home-road splits — but Jones tends to play better away from the New York fans at MetLife Stadium. In his career 32 games on the road, Jones has a 91.2 QBR while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 213.2 passing YPG — and he has 39 touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions. But in his 31 career games at home, his QBR drops to 78.6 with a 63.6% completion percentage and a 202.9 passing YPG mark — and he has thrown 27 touchdown passes while throwing 28 picks.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-24 |
Rangers v. A's OVER 7 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (973) and the Oakland A’s (974) listing both starting pitchers Cody Bradford and Brady Basso. THE SITUATION: Texas (74-83) has lost four of their last five games after their 5-4 loss on the road against the A’s last night. Oakland (68-89) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have surrendered at least five runs in four straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after losing their previous game. The Over is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 38-46% range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in that 38-46% range. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. Bradford gets the ball looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 3.59 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts). The deeper sabermetrics suggest he has been overachieving a bit. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.72 and 3.81 moving forward. He has been at his best at home, he enjoys a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 — but in his four games on the road, he has been saddled with an 8.10 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310. The last time he pitched away from Globe Life Field, Bradford got rocked in Arizona for eight runs in just 3 2/3 innings. He faces an A’s team that ranks 11th in MLB at home in weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Basso who has a 1-0 record with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings from six appearances which includes three starts. Two of his three starts have been against the Chicago White Sox — and his third was against Detroit, so he has faced a very favorable schedule in his first three professional starts. He relies on four pitches with his change-up the least used after his curveball and slider. His four-seamer only hits 93 miles per hour -- and the deeper analytics suggest he has overachieved with it so far. In his 67 2/3 innings in Triple-A in the summer, he had a 4-3 record along with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. While his xFIP lowers to 4.26 during that span, that is not an encouraging number when now having this Rangers team that ranks eighth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 15 of their last 20 games in September Over the Total — and Oakland has played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (973) and the Oakland A’s (974) listing both starting pitchers Cody Bradford and Brady Basso. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-24 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
Top |
6-3 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (954) listing both starting pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (77-79) has won four games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 2-0 win at Kansas City on Sunday. Arizona (87-69) has lost two games in a row after their 10-9 loss at Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Birdsong gets the ball looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.67 ERA along with a 1.37 WHIP in six starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.55 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his eight starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks first and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in both those categories since July 1st and August 1st. Arizona has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run — and they have played 6 straight games at home after losing their previous game by only one run. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. They counter with Rodriguez who has a 3-3 record in eight starts along with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 5.32. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.05 ERA along with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in four starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants club that ranks 11th and 13th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 30 of their last 44 games Over the Total against NL West rivals — and San Francisco has played 29 of their last 49 divisional games Over the Total. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (954) listing both starting pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-24 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 41-10 loss at Arizona as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco is likely missing three important pieces to their dynamic offense with running back Christian McCaffrey on the injured list, wide receiver Deebo Samuel declared out for this game, and tight end George Kittle listed as doubtful. That takes away three of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “jokers” where he can comfortably line them up in multiple offensive positions to stress the defense. Shanahan still has wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — but they are not as formidable without those other three versatile players on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy has already taken eight sacks this season. Expect a game plan similar to what the 49ers deployed against the New York Jets when they rushed for 180 yards — this game should be about smash-mouth football for the Niners after they gave up 403 yards to the Vikings last week. This remains a good 49ers defense that is only allowing 334.5 Yards-Per-Game this season. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Los Angeles is decimated with injuries. With the offensive line depleted and quarterback Matthew Stafford missing his top two wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams are likely to focus on running the ball behind Kyren Robinson and rookie Blake Corum to protect the offensive line (run blocking is easier to execute) and their veteran quarterback. The injuries have left this Los Angeles offense punchless — they are generating only 316.0 YPG this season which is resulting in 15.0 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to an NFC West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-24 |
Arsenal v. Manchester City UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Arsenal (200197) and Manchester City (200198). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W3-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 victory against Tottenham last Sunday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Manchester City (W4-D0-L0) has won their first four matches in the EPL this season with their 2-1 victory against Brentford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in a busy stretch of matches while missing key players in their respective attacks. Arsenal is without the injured Martin Odegaard who is one of their best attacking players in transition. The Gunners have scored only six goals in their four EPL matches so far this season. They come off a scoreless draw at Atalanta on Thursday in their opening match in the UEFA Champions League. They managed only 0.8 expected goals (xG) in that match. They generated just 0.7 xG in their EPL match against Tottenham last week — but their defensive play remained outstanding. The Hotspurs engage in an aggressive pressing attack — but manager Mikel Arteta’s squad limited them to just 0.7 xG. This was an even greater accomplishment when considering they played the match without suspended midfielder Declan Rice. Arteta’s defensive schemes are brilliant in cutting off passing lanes — and he has the benefit of the best center-back defensive pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel. The Gunners have only given up one goal in EPL action so far this season. Arteta is often content to play a defensive structure that defends the low block while generating offensive from counter-attacks. This formula has led to lower-scoring matches as their last six matches across all competitions have seen no more than two combined goals scored. The Gunners have clean sheets in five of those last six matches. Man City comes off a goalless draw against Inter Milan on Wednesday in their opening match in the Champions League. The Cityzens were frustrated by Inter Milan’s deep low block that they are likely to encounter again in this match. Manager Pep Guardiola is missing the injured Kevin DeBruyne who is one of the best passers in the world. While Phil Foden is fit to make his first start in the EPL this season, his strengths are with more with his scoring prowess rather than feeling the dynamic Erling Haaland up top. They were unable to generate a shot with an xG of over 0.10 after the first ten minutes of that match. And Haaland only managed three shots in that match without DeBruyne on the pitch. Man City has scored 11 goals in EPL action — but their xG drops to 9.0 in those four matches. But the Cityzens have only concerned three goals — and they lead the EPL with just 3.54 expected Goals Allowed (xGA). Arsenal forward Kai Havertz is developing into a very cagey forward up top for Arteta which Guardiola must take into account. Havertz is a whiz at winning aerials which helps the Gunners retain possession. His threat in transition must be taken into account as well — and that will limit Man City from getting too aggressive in their pressing attack.
FINAL TAKE: Only one goal was scored in the two EPL matches between these two sides last season. In the opening match on October 8th at the Emirates, Arsenal won by a 1-0 score despite generating just 0.5 xG. Man City was without DeBruyne in that match — and they only managed four shots on target and a mere 0.4 xG. In the rematch on March 31st at the Etihad Stadium, it was a scoreless draw with Arteta’s 4-4-2 scheme limiting the Cityzens to just 1.0 xG. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200197) and Manchester City (200198). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
31-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 52 |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-24 |
Dolphins v. Bucs UNDER 37.5 |
Top |
14-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (111) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (112). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-0) has won their opening two preseason games this month after their 13-6 win at home against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tampa Bay (1-1) comes off a 20-7 loss at Jacksonville as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Mike McDaniel has indicated that some starters will play tonight — but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are on the injured list so they are not likely to play. Given that, I suspect quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will probably not see much — if any — action tonight. These two teams had a joint practice on Wednesday — so Tagovailoa has already faced the first-string Buccaneers defense this week. Besides, McDaniel still has to settle the battle for the backup quarterback between Skylar Thompson and Mike White so playing both players for a half makes sense to help resolve that position battle. But Miami only managed 288 yards of offense in their victory against the Commanders. Tagovailoa completed all five of his passes and threw a touchdown pass before leaving the game. Thompson completed 8 of 15 passes but often looked antsy in the pocket. White completed 11 of 20 passes. Neither quarterback is completing even 50% of their passes in the preseason. Thompson has completed 16 of his 34 passes for just 156 yards. White has completed 15 of 34 passes for 142 yards. The Dolphins have only scored 16.5 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games — and they generated just 276.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Miami’s defense has played well — they have only given up 19 combined points in their two exhibition games. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Bowles has indicated that the starters will play in the first quarter tonight. These starters have not taken the field yet in the preseason. So while Baker Mayfield will lead the offense tonight, the play-calling will be vanilla after the joint practice on Wednesday. Kyle Trask will likely be the next quarterback to get snaps. He has been solid (but not spectacular) by completing 24 of 39 passes for 252 yards. But he has only played in three regular season games in relief and has thrown only ten passes in those contests. Jon Wolford is the third-stringer. He has completed 19 of 32 passes for 183 yards. Overall, the Buccaneers are only scoring 12.0 PPG in the preseason with Trask and Wolford taking the snaps. They are generating just 298.5 YPG. The Tampa Bay defense has only given up 34 combined points.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under McDaniel — and the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under Bowles. With the more exotic offensive looks likely practiced in the joint scrimmage on Wednesday, this exhibition game is mostly for the backups to get out of the game with injuries. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (111) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-24 |
Bills v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 |
Top |
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (415) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (416). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-1) lost their opening preseason game by a 33-6 score at home against Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (0-1) also lost their first preseason game in a 20-12 loss at home against Houston as a 3-point underdog last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams played an opponent that had an initial preseason game under their belts since the Bears faced the Texans in the opening Hall of Fame Game back on August 1st. Given that, the Steelers defense was impressive in holding Houston to just 255 total yards of offense. The Texans have one of the better quarterback rooms as well with veterans Davis Mills, Case, Keenum, and Tim Boyle backing up C.J. Stroud. Stroud played in that game as he completed 2 of his 4 passes before taking a seat on the bench for the backups. The Steelers also limited Houston to just 80 rushing yards in the game on 2.96 Yards-Per-Carry. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 preseason games under the head coach Mike Tomlin Under the Total. The Steelers have held their last five opponents in the preseason to just 11.2 Points-Per-Game. On the other side of the ball, Tomlin indicated that new quarterback Russell Wilson “will be a participant” in this game after he did not play last week. But I don’t expect the former Denver quarterback to take too many snaps tonight behind a work-in-progress offensive line that may have three rookies in the starting lineup. Veteran center Nate Herbig started last week but he had problems connecting with new quarterback Justin Fields who fumbled two snaps. Not sure who to blame for those snafus. Fields was sacked twice as well and he continues his disturbing trend of hanging on to the ball too long. Fields led the NFL last season in Seconds Per Pass Attempt — many of the sacks he took with Chicago were probably his fault. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott indicated that his starters will play into about half of the second quarter before giving way to the backups. Quarterback Josh Allen took the field against the Bears last week, but he only took eight snaps and threw just three passes. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over midseason for Ken Dorsey, the Bills are going to run the ball more and impose their physical will on their opponents. Allen is not going to pass the ball a lot in this one. McDermott wants better execution in the running game after they generated only 2.96 Yards-Per-Carry and gained just 77 rushing yards. Expect Buffalo to play better on defense after allowing the Bears to gain 340 yards including 141 rushing yards from 30 carries. Remember, Chicago had that Hall of Fame Game under their belts so the Bears’ offense had already competed against hostile competition this month.
FINAL TAKE: In this battle between AFC rivals, expect the offensive game plans to be even more vanilla than even the typical exhibition game. These two teams already played a joint practice on Thursday, so this follow-up exhibition will be about working on the execution of the plays deployed in that scrimmage. Lastly, there is a 91% chance of precipitation in Pittsburgh tonight. With the Thursday injury to linebacker Matt Milano on the mind of both head coaches from their joint scrimmage, look for both teams to be cautious hoping to escape this contest without further injuries. 25* NFLx AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (415) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-24 |
Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (55-68) has lost three games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Phillies in the second game of their weekend series. Philadelphia (72-50) has won three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road. Gore gets the ball amidst a brutal slump for the left-hander. For the season, Gore has a 7-10 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last nine starts since June 25th, he has been saddled with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Gore was pitching great early in the season with his four-seam fastball reaching 97 miles per hour. But his velocity has dropped to 94-95 MPH which is a big problem for the hurler who throws his fastball more than 50% of the time. Gore’s deployment of his secondary pitches is inconsistent, especially with his command. He is dealing with mechanical issues which is compounding his problems. He has been putting an average of two hitters on base per inning since the beginning of July. Early in the season, he was saddled with a sky-high BABIP with him experiencing bad luck with the batted balls put into play against him. But now his expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.57 — so we are past those expectations for positive regression. And while he has a 4.35 ERA in his 15 starts at home, that mark rises to 4.72 on the road. He faces a Phillies team that crushes left-handed pitching. Philadelphia ranks third and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers — and they rank second in those categories over the last month since July 15th. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring fewer than four runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. Additionally, the Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Sanchez who is another young pitcher who was performing great early in the season but has since experienced some rough times. For the year, he has an 8-8 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 23 starts. In his last seven stars, he has been saddled with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. His strikeout rate has dropped as he has only 25 punchouts in his last 38 innings. Fatigue might be the cause of his decline this summer. The 131 1/3 innings he has logged in this season are already 32 more innings than his previous career high back last year. He had a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP last season but in his final 52 innings since the beginning of August, those numbers rose to a 4.15 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: Washington ranks last in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers — but the breakout of rookie phenom James Woods has significantly altered that dynamic. In the last month since July 15th, the Nationals rank third in MLB in both those categories. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-24 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: New York (60-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with an 11-8 victory on the road against the Red Sox. Boston (55-48) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored 18 combined runs in their last two games — and they have Jazz Chisholm at the top of the lineup tonight after they acquired him from Tampa Bay on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last contest — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing six or more runs in their last game. And in their last 16 games on the road, the Bronx Bombers have played 12 of these games Over the Total. Rodon gets the ball hoping to come close to replicating his best start of the season when he allowed only one run and struck out ten in seven innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. The left-hander has been inconsistent this season — and his most recent performance may speak more about the Rays’ anemic lineup. He has a 10-7 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 21 starts — but in his previous six starts before facing Tampa Bay, he was saddled with a 0-5 record with a 9.67 ERA. Rodon has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.61 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.00 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 13 starts. Now he pitches in Fenway Park with the ominous Green Monster looming over his right shoulder. Boston has scored at least six runs in seven straight games — but they have surrendered seven or more runs in six of those seven contests. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least six runs in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing seven or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Houck who has an 8-6 record along with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.81. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.42 and 3.25 moving forward. The left-hander has lost some effectiveness with his slider and splitter which has led to a reduction in his strikeout rate. In his last six starts, he has a 4.50 ERA with only 25 strikeouts and 14 walks in those 33 innings. In his 15 1/3 innings this month, he only has nine strikeouts. He has already surpassed his career high in innings pitched so fatigue may be the issue. Of further concern is that opposing hitters have an expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .352 against him in their last 100 plate appearances which is far above his xwOBA of .304 for the season. Houck has not been as effective at home either where he has a 2.96 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 11 starts as opposed to his 2.38 ERA and a .209 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. He faces a Yankees team that ranks third in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-24 |
Cubs v. Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
9-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (981) and the Kansas City Royals (982) listing both starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo. THE SITUATION: Chicago (49-56) has lost three games in a row after their 6-0 loss on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (57-47) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs got shutout for the second time in their last three games — they have scored only two runs over that stretch of games. They have not scored more than three runs in seven straight games — and they have scored two runs or less in six of those six contests. Chicago has played 5 straight Unders after losing their previous game. They have played 6 straight Unders after scoring three runs or less in their last game. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total. And in their 24 games in Interleague play, the Under is 16-7-1 this season. Imanaga gets the ball looking to build on his 8-2 record along with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 18 starts. The breakout Japanese star slumped for a few weeks while giving up too many gopher balls — but he has righted the ship after allowing only seven earned runs in his last four starts. In his last two starts, he has a 0.69 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. A 2.86 ERA may be too ambitious to expect the rest of the way — but his expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.40. That will work — especially against a vulnerable Royals lineup. Imanaga has a 2.51 ERA in his eight starts on the road — and he sports a 2.51 ERA when pitching at night. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 21 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when favored. They counter with Lugo who has a 12-4 record along with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 21 starts. Lugo is another starting pitcher who is outperforming his baseline numbers — but even if he approaches his xERA of 3.86, that’s not too shabby. The veteran 34-year-old may be one of the exceptions to the fielding independent data that tends to not like pitchers who rely on generating soft contact rather than getting whiffs. Lugo is a master of deception who is now throwing nine different pitchers to keep batters off balance. But then again, his punchouts are up in his last six starts — he has struck out 43 batters in those 39 2/3 innings to cross the strikeout-per-inning threshold. He comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run at home against the Chicago White Sox. He has been more effective at home where he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts as opposed to his 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. Granted, dominating the White Sox is what every pitcher is supposed to do — but Lugo has only allowed one earned run in his last three starts at home. In those last three home starts, Lugo enjoys a 0.43 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. The Cubs rank a middling 14th and 15th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 18th and 20th in those categories against right-handed pitchers (home and road) this month.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 16 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing at Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City. 25* MLB Interleague Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (981) and the Kansas City Royals (982) listing both starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-24 |
Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
10-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. THE SITUATION: Seattle (53-51) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 loss at home to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday. Chicago (27-78) has lost 11 games in a row after a 2-1 loss at Texas yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in tailspins for the same reason: they can’t hit. The Mariners have lost three games in a row while scoring just one run in each contest. They have not scored more than two runs in seven of their last eight games. They were having enough trouble generating runs before Julio Rodriguez suffered a high-angle sprain last weekend. The team did just trade for Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay but he will not join the team before tomorrow. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after failing to score more than one run in their last game. But the Mariners are getting great pitching. Kirby gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 7-7 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last ten starts, the right-hander boasts a 2.06 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP. In his last five starts on the road, he sports a 2.03 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics validate his season-lone ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at exactly 3.20. Both his SIERA and xFIP which rely on fielding independent data project his ERA at 3.27 each moving forward. He has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last ten starts when he gave up three earned runs against Toronto on July 7th. Chicago has not scored more than four runs in 12 straight games — and they have scored three runs or less in 11 of those games. They have two runs or less in nine of their last 11 contests — and they have scored two runs or less in six of their last seven games with four of those games seeing one run or less scored by them. The White Sox have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Thorpe who has a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in seven starts. The rookie right-hander has endured one bad start at Arizona when he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He has given up only six earned runs in his other six starts — and he has registered five straight Quality Starts. Tonight’s game will be just his third start at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA along with a 0.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .122. He should have success against this Seattle team that ranks 28th and 27th this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White rank last in MLB this season at home against right-handed pitchers — and this is a mark that has remained remarkably consistent since they are also last in these categories since May 1st and since June 1st. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-23-24 |
Angels v. Mariners UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-57) has won two games in a row after their 3-1 come-from-behind victory on the road against the Mariners last night. Seattle (53-49) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Halos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Soriano gets the start looking to replicate his last start which was against these Mariners back on July 13th when he allowed only one run and struck out five in six innings of work. That was an improvement from his first outing against them on May 31st when he gave up four runs in six innings. The rookie right-hander has the edge in this third matchup because of the not-so-dirty secret about this Seattle team: they can’t hit fastballs. The Mariners rank 28th in MLB by scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six contests. They rank 28th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 28th and 24th in those categories since the beginning of the month. To compound matters, the Mariners will be without Julio Rodriguez again with him being placed on the injured list earlier today with a right ankle sprain. Soriano has an opposing hitter ground ball rate of 60.2% which is one of the highest marks in MLB. He issues too many walks but he should be confident that he can simply throw strikes tonight. He has a 5-7 record this season with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 games (15 starts). In his last five starts, he has demonstrated improvement by producing a 3.41 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been more effective away from home where he sports a 3.09 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten appearances as opposed to his 4.78 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven games at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last game. The Mariners have also played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total when playing at home including 13 of their last 19 contests at home at T-Mobile Park. Seattle has held nine of their last ten opponents to four runs or less — and they have a great chance to extend that streak with Gilbert on the hill. The right-hander has a 6-5 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.87 WHI) in 20 starts. In his last eight starts since the beginning of June, he enjoys a 2.10 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. That WHIP is no typo — in his last 55 2/3 innings of work, he has given only 33 base hits and issued a mere five bases-on-balls. He should pitch well against this Angels team that ranks 26th in MLB by scoring 4.1 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six games. Los Angeles ranks 27th and 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they have dropped to 28th in both those categories this month.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against AL West rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against the Angels. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-24 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
Top |
6-9 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Boston (53-44) has lost three of their last five games after their 7-6 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (58-41) has won the first two games of this series after their on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. Crawford gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 6-7 record along with his 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.69. Both his SIERA and xFIP that emphasize fielding independent data project his ERA to be at 3.85 and 4.06 moving forward. He faces this Dodgers lineup that ranks eighth and sixth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Paxton who has a 7-2 record along with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper numbers are screaming regression for this left-hander. His xERA sits at 4.83. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.54 and 5.37 respectively moving forward. The Regression Gods have already made their presence felt regarding Paxton since he has a 6.13 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in his last seven starts since June. The Red Sox rank 11th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: After last night, these two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-24 |
Colombia v. Argentina UNDER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
120 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762) in the finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W4-D1-L0) reached the championship match in this tournament with their 1-0 victory against Uruguay on Wednesday. Argentina (W4-D1-L0) beat Canada by a 2-0 score to win their Semifinals match on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Colombia was down a man for the entire second half to Uruguay but they still held La Celeste to just 0.8 expected Goals (xG) in that match. Los Cafeteros have been outstanding on defense all tournament. They have only surrendered two goals in their five matches — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 2.5 surfing that span. Colombia has scored 12 goals — but their xG drops to 8.5 in their five matches. They will not have right back Daniel Munoz after he was issued a second yellow card in the Uruguay match — and he plays a key role in their attack. Munoz is one of the most active players in their counter-attack in transition. He has also scored two of their 12 goals in this tournament. Argentina is winning low-scoring matches. They have only scored eight goals in their five matches. But the key for La Albiceleste since winning the 2022 World Cup has been the play of their defense. Argentina has conceded only one goal in this tournament. They have a 0.59 non-penalty kick xGA per 90 minutes in this event. They also play elite transition defense which is where Colombia is most dangerous.
FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey, lower-scoring affairs — and with the Copa America going straight to a penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes without a 30-minute extra-time period, both sides may be cautious late in the second half to take their chances in that season. These two teams last played in a World Cup qualifying match in February of 2022 which was a low-scoring contest that Argentina won by a 1-0 score. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-10-24 |
England v. Netherlands UNDER 2 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: England (W2-D3-L0) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament with their 5-3 victory in a penalty shootout against Switzerland after that match remained unresolved in a 1-1 score after 120 minutes last Saturday. The Netherlands (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-1 victory against Turkey in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Signal Iduna park in Dortmund, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England only managed 0.6 expected Goals (xG) against Switzerland which may be a surprise to those listening to Landon Donovan’s commentary of the match who lauded the Three Lions supposed new found aggressiveness despite their few shots on target. While less reliance on the aging Harry Kane was probably a step in the right direction, opponents are quickly double-teaming Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka when he gets the ball on the right wing. In hindsight, less reliance on Kane and more development of the attack around Saka, Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, and Manchester City’s Phil Foden (who Pep Guardiola thought was the best player in the English Premier League) would probably be preferable tactics — but it is hard for these veteran national team managers to move off the reliable strikers on their squads given the limited training time they have. The dirty little secret regarding Southgate is that learned early on in his tenure as England’s national coach in 2016 that he could not trust the back line. His conservative tactics developed from that conclusion — he is content to win low-scoring affairs where perhaps his attacking talent can steal a game late. The Three Lions have not allowed more than one goal in any of their five matches in this event. They have surrendered only 3.59 expected Goals (xG) in regulation time in their five matches. England is particularly effective in defense in transition with their midfielders quickly rolling back and against set pieces. Those are areas where the Dutch score most of their goals. But the result of these conservative tactics is a lackluster attack. The Three Lions have scored one goal or less in four of their five matches in this tournament. Even worse, they have generated less than 1.0 xG in four of their five contests. They have only 3.8 xG in regulation time in their five matches at this tournament. Here comes the Netherlands who only managed 1.0 xG against a suspect Turkish defense that had surrendered at least 1.4 xG in their previous four matches. The Crescent-Stars are not a good defensive side — but they still frustrated the Dutch with their attempt to press. The Oranje have talent — but it may be the skill of their players that overcome the outdated tactical strategies of manager Ronald Koeman. After trailing by a 1-0 score, the Dutch rallied from a goal on a set piece before Turkey surrendered an own-goal in the 76th minute. The Netherlands have not generated more than 1.4 xG in three of their five matches. And it has been a relatively easy schedule for the Oranje. They scored two goals against Poland before getting blanked against France. They scored two goals in a loss against an aggressive Austria team before a dream Round of 16 draw against Romania which they beat, 3-0. The defense has been solid. Outside the match against the Austrians, they have had two clean sheets and held those two other opponents to just one goal.
FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, these are two cautious teams who are loath to make mistakes now competing against a mirror image of themselves. Since their opening match against Portugal, the Netherlands have managed 0.6 xG or less in the first half of their last four matches. Both of these managers want this match to be the first one to score wins. And if this game gets tied at 1-1, we should survive regulation time (and settle for the push) with both managers contest for extra time where perhaps they can create Big Chance scoring opportunities. 25* Euro 2024 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-24 |
Canada v. Argentina UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D2-L1) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament by beating Venezuela by a 4-3 mark on penalty kicks after a 1-1 result in regulation time on Friday. Argentina (W3-D1-L0) defeated Ecuador in a shootout by a 4-2 margin after a 1-1 score in regulation on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada only generated 0.9 expected Goals (xG) against a Venezuela side that allowed 2.8 xG to a struggling Mexico team in the Group Stage of this tournament. Les Rouges have scored only two goals in their four matches at this event. And while they have generated 5.8 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will continue to be without Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing better and better defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next five matches. Only Argentina and now Venezuela has scored on them in this tournament. They have given up only three goals in their last five matches — and they have conceded just once in their last three contests. Argentina took a 1-0 lead in the 36th minute against Ecuador last Thursday — but they only managed 0.8 xG against La Tri who had surrendered at least 1.0 xG in two of their three Group Stage matches. And when La Albiceleste conceded a goal in the first minute of stoppage time, it was the first goal scored against them in their four matches in this tournament. But since winning the 2022 World Cup, only three sides have generated at least 1.0 xG against them. These two teams faced off in their opening match in Group A play with Argentina winning by a 2-0 score. It was a high-event match with 29 combined shots by both teams. Canada did find success in frustrating La Albiceleste with their pressing in the mid-block which took away the middle for Argentina. After a scoreless first half, Argentina scored in the 49th minute which put Les Rouges in an urgent situation. La Albiceleste scored their second goal in the 88th minute.
FINAL TAKE: Canada scored a goal in the first half for the first time against Venezuela across all competitions in 2024. They have still not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. Canada manager Jesse Marsch would love to take his chances in a shootout. His team is playing better defensively than they were in their previous match against Argentina on June 20th. He may elect his team to play more cautiously this time around and bank on the speed of midfielders Alphonso Davies or Jonathan David getting scoring opportunities in transition. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-06-24 |
Turkey v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Turkey (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 2-1 victory against Austria on Tuesday. The Netherlands (W2-D1-L1) advanced from the Round of 16 with a 3-0 victory against Romania on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: If styles dictate fights, the tactics of Turkish manager Vincenzo Mantella are instigating higher-scoring matches. The Crescent-Stars are playing on the front foot in this tournament — and it makes sense given the young talent at Mantella’s disposal. Two 19-year-olds, Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenas Yildiz, played a significant role in their victory against Austria — and now they get their captain back after Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu was suspected for that match due to yellow cards. Turkey has scored seven goals in their four matches. Mantella unleashed Guler against the Austrians as he was given the freedom to roam and potentially attack when facing a press. But this young team has played loose when it comes to over-aggressiveness — and this has led to yellow cards and plenty of scoring chances for their opponents. The Crescent-Stars have been whistled for 18 yellow cards already which is the second most in the history of this event. They have also surrendered six goals — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) sits at 8.0. Austria generated 3.1 expected Goals (xG) against them — but not for the outstanding goalkeeping of Mert Gunok, Turkey gives up a few more goals in that match. The Crescent-Stars have allowed 1.4 xGA in each of their four matches — and that included a match with Czechia where they gave up 1.6 xGA despite having a man-advantage from a red card issues to the Czechs in the 20th minute. Mantella has proven himself a great tactician — so I expect Turkey to score. They build possession out of the back — and they are then willing to attack vertically with long balls over the top. But they are getting beaten by the opponent’s press — and their aggressiveness risks perhaps getting a man sent off or, even worse, penalty kicks. That might be a ticking time bomb for them. The Netherlands have scored seven goals in their four matches. Against Romania, they generated 50 touches inside the Romanian area which broke a national team record for them at this event. The Oranje have scoring talent — Atletico Madrid’s Memphis Depay, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo, Borussia Dortmund’s Donyell Malek, and Liverpool center-back Virgil Van Dijk who can play up the pitch. The tactics of manager Ronald Koeman have been criticized as too passive and vanilla — but the individual talent on the pitch has still been able to shine (perhaps Koeman is crazy like a fox in this regard?). The Netherlands has a great chance to score multiple goals against this suspect Turkish backline. But they can get caught up in high-scoring affairs as evidenced by their 3-2 loss to the Austria team that the Crescent-Stars just beat.
FINAL TAKE: I’ll send out a second cliche — game scripts play a huge role regarding the over/under in international soccer, especially in the Knockout Stage. All four of Turkey’s matches have seen a goal scored in the first 30 minutes -- and in the Quarterfinals, and early goal places the losing side in an urgent situation. Each of the Crescent-Stars matches have seen at least 3.45 combined expected Goals. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three scored in regulation time. 25* Euro 2024 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-24 |
Canada v. Venezuela UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738) in the Quarterfinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D1-L1) claimed second place in Group A after their 0-0 draw with Chile on Saturday. Venezuela (W3-D0-L0) clinched first place in Group B with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada has only scored one goal in this tournament. And while they have generated 4.1 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will miss Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing good defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next four matches. Only Argentina has scored on them in this tournament. After that 2-0 loss, the Canucks have only given up 1.2 xG in their last two matches. Chile managed just 0.5 xG on Saturday. Venezuela scored three goals on 2.0 xG to complete their Group Stage — but that Reggae Boyz team was mentally checked after being eliminated from the Knockout Stage and playing for a lame-duck manager. They have scored six goals in this event — but two of those goals came with a man-advantage in the second half against Ecuador after getting that edge in the 22nd minute in the first half. La Vinotinto has only 4.8 xG relative to their six goals — and the context in two of their matches needs to be considered. They only had 1.2 xG when they played Mexico. But the defense has been solid — they have only conceded one goal in their last four matches across all competitions. They are getting outstanding goalkeeping from the veteran Rafael Romo who has only given up that one goal despite a 3.6 post-shot expected goals allowed projection. Venezuela is missing a key player as well — winger Darwin Machis who plays professionally for Capiz is suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card against Jamaica last week.
FINAL TAKE: Canada has not scored a goal in the first half in 2024 across all competitions — but they have not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-24 |
Colombia v. Brazil UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726) in the Group Stage of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D0-L0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals after their 3-0 victory against Costa Rica on Friday. Brazil (W1-D1-L0) won their first match in this event with a 4-1 victory against Paraguay on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is going to be a lower-scoring match with both sides resting or not risking a second yellow card in this contest. Colombia is already in with their two victories — and Brazil is all but in with only miraculous results from Costa Rica putting their second-place finish in Group D in doubt. The Selecao have a +3 net goal differential in their first two matches after settling for a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica in their opening match. Costa Rica now has a -3 net goal differential after their three-goal loss to Colombia — so they would have to overcome a six-goal deficit to Brazil in their potential victory against Paraguay. By the way, Paraguay is a -0.5 goal-line favorite in that match despite having lost their first two matches. Even if the Selecao were to lose tonight by a surprising 3-0 score, Costa Rica would still need to score at least three goals tonight. Costa Rica has registered a mere 0.1 expected goals in their two matches combined — and they have yet to register a shot on target in this tournament. Brazil manager Dorival Junior can rest easy. And he certainly does not want to risk Real Madrid star forward Vinicius Junior taking the pitch tonight since he risks a suspension for the Quarterfinals if he receives a second yellow card tonight. As it is, the Brazilian attack looked sluggish against Costa Rica in that scoreless match. They did get going against Paraguay finally after going scoreless in those first 30 minutes — but that may speak more to the quality of the Paraguayan defense. The good news for the Selecao is that their defense has been quite good in this tournament after some shaky results against Spain and Mexico in friendlies earlier this year. In their last friendly on June 12th against the United States, they held the Stars and Stripes to one goal. In their two Copa America matches, they have given up only 0.9 expected goals. Colombia is likely to rest players as well since little is at stake — so Liverpool striker Luis Diaz, forward Jhon Cordoba with a yellow card in hand, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez who suffered a knock against Costa Rica are likely to play. Los Cafeteros have scored five times in this tournament — but their expected goals fall to 3.6 xG. Colombia is a strong defensive club that has conceded only one goal in this event — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 0.9. They have not conceded a goal in six straight matches across all competitions since playing Mexico in a friendly on December 16th. They have not allowed more than one goal in five of those last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-event match between these two sides. There have been only four combined goals between these teams in their last three clashes. The last time these teams met, Colombia won by a 2-0 score on November 16th last year in a World Cup 2026 qualifying event where both teams were starting their A-teams — and that was a 1-0 game before Los Cafeteros scored twice in the final 15 minutes. In their two previous matches in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers, only one goal was scored. 25* Copa America Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-24 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: Toronto (35-42) has lost six games in a row after their 6-5 loss at Cleveland yesterday. Boston (42-36) has won seven of their last eight games after their 7-4 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. Bassitt gets the ball tonight with his 6-6 record along with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 15 starts. After struggling in April with opposing hitters posting a .327 batting average against him in six starts which resulted in a 5.33 ERA and a 1.89, he has been outstanding in his last nine starts. Since the beginning of May, Bassitt has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The right-hander endured a slow start last season as well where he ended April with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP — and he ended the year with a 3.60 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP. He held the Red Sox to just two earned runs in six innings in his last start. That game was played in Toronto where Bassitt has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts — but those numbers drop to a 3.00 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .253 opponent’s batting average in his seven starts on the road. In his last three starts on the road over 18 innings, he has a 0.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 19 strikeouts. The Blue Jays have played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Boston has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have not committed a fielding error in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two or more games in a row without an error. They turn to Houck tonight to build on his 7-5 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not call for much regression either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.93 moving forward — and those numbers will work! In his last four starts at home, he has a 2.17 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and he has not given up more than one earned run in three of those four appearances at Fenway Park.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Sox only score 4.3 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 17 of their last 22 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-24 |
Mets v. Cubs OVER 8 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. THE SITUATION: New York has lost two of their last three games after their 8-1 loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (37-40) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. New York continues their road trip tonight having played 22 of their last 32 games away from home Over the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Severino gets the start looking to build on his 4-2 record along with a 3.52 era and a 1.20 whip in fourteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home as well where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in eight starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has a 4.86 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237. Last season, Severino was saddled with an 8.14 ERA along with a 1.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in eleven appearances with ten starts. The Mets have played 5 of Severino’s 6 road starts this season Over the Total. Despite their meager scoring numbers, the Cubs do rank 16th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a win by six or more runs. They counter with Assad who has a 4-2 record along with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is another prime regression candidate like Severino. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.07 and 4.04 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.07. Assad has not been as effective at home at Wrigley Field for the Cubs either in his career. In 113 2/3 innings, he has a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in 112 innings on the road. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks second and third in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank second in both those categories since May 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-24 |
Panthers v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-101 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (21) and the Edmonton Oilers (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-29-8) had won six games in a row — but they have now dropped two games in a row after their 5-3 loss at home to the Oilers. Edmonton (63-35-7) can force a decisive Game Seven with a victory tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida has been anemic in even generating scoring chances in the power play in this series. The Panthers have scored only once in their 16 opportunities with a man advantage — and they have failed to score a goal in 19 of their last 20 power plays. But the Panthers' defensive-first approach has still been mostly effective. They have limited the Oilers to just 6.8 High Danger Chances and 17.6 Scoring Chances per game — and those numbers are actually lower than the 8.1 High Danger Chances and 18.0 Scoring Chances they are allowing in the postseason. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky gave up four goals in Game Five — but Florida did hold Edmonton to just 23 shots in that game. He went into that game with a 1.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage following a loss in these playoffs. If not for the short-handed goal by the Oilers early in the third period, Game Five might stay a lower-scoring contest. Instead, Edmonton took a 2-0 lead early in the second period and the game script changed with the Panthers trailing by multiple goals. Still, outside of the scoring fest in Game Four, Florida has only given up four goals at five-on-five in this series. And they have still stopped 18 of the 21 Oilers’ power plays. The Panthers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game at home where both teams scored three goals. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where eight or more goals were scored. Florida has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two games in a row. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two or more days of rest. Edmonton returns home where they generated 9.0 High Danger Chances and 24.0 Scoring Chances per Game — and those numbers were lower than the 13.1 High Danger Chances and 27.9 Scoring Chances per Game they averaged in the regular season. Goalie Stuart Skinner has gained confidence as this series has moved on — as he did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. He has stopped 52 of the last 56 shots he has faced in the last two games for a .929 save percentage. The Oilers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two more goals. Tonight’s game is just the fifth time all season that Edmonton has scored five or more goals in two straight games — and they have played 3 of those 4 previous games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (21) and the Edmonton Oilers (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-24 |
Panthers v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (17) and the Edmonton Oilers (18) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-28-8) has won six games in a row after their 4-3 victory on the road against the Oilers on Thursday. Edmonton (61-35-7) trails by a 0-3 margin and looks to stave off Lord Stanley’s Cup being raised on their home ice tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky did give up two goals in the third period in Game Three — but the Panthers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period in their last game. Bobrovsky has been sensational in this series with a .953 save percentage and +4.53 Goals Saved Above Expectation. The Florida Power Play Kill Unit has also been elite as they have stopped all ten of the Oilers’ chances with the man advantage. The Panthers have stopped 90.2% of their opponent’s power plays in the postseason which is the second-best mark in the playoffs. Florida has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a win by one goal — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road by just one goal. They have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after playing a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. In their last 11 games on the road with the total set at 5.5, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. The Panthers have scored at least three goals in each of the games in this series — but they have then played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Oilers’ goaltender Stuart Skinner has struggled in this series — but Florida is also scoring on an unsustainable 15.7% of their shot attempts that reach the net. Edmonton is at its best when limiting shot attempts to help put Skinner in a better position to succeed. They only had four goals in the final three games of their series against Dallas to rally from a 2-1 deficit to take that series in six games. The Oilers had stopped 34 straight opponent power plays before the Panthers scored with the man advantage in Game Two — but they have still stopped eight of the nine opportunities with the man advantage for Florida in this series. They lead all playoff teams with an opponent Power Play Kill rate of 93.1% in the postseason. But Edmonton is struggling to score against the Panthers' physical style of play that emphasizes forechecking. The Oilers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring three goals or less in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 13 of their last 17 playoff games when leading in the series — and they have played 6 of their last 9 Game Fours in a series Under the Total. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (17) and the Edmonton Oilers (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-14-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
84-122 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (79-20) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 106-99 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (62-40) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 205 combined points scored in Game Three were the most points scored in this series. The Celtics have not allowed the Mavericks to score more than 99 points in the first three games in this series. Boston’s diversity of defensive talent is making things very difficult on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Nothing is coming easy for Doncic who has been guarded primarily by Jaylen Brown or Derrick White — although Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum have both defended him at times. Head coach Joe Mazzulla has been comfortable not double-teaming him when he is coming off pick-and-rolls given the good defensive players he has on the court. Irving comes off his best game in the series by scoring 35 points, yet Holiday and White had been doing a great job slowing him down. He made only 35.1% of his shots in Games One and Two without a made 3-pointer. The Celtics are also doing a great job defending the perimeter and taking away 3-point shots. Dallas has not taken more than 27 shots from behind the arc which was in Game One — and critics were concerned even then since taking only 32.6% of their shots from 3-point range had been their lowest percentage in the playoffs. But then the Mavericks took 26 shots from behind the arc in Game Two before attempting 25 shots from 3-point land in Game 3. The Celtics are doing a particularly good job taking away corner 3s. After taking 13% of their shots from the plum corner spot behind the arc in the playoffs coming into this series, the Mavs have taken only 4.9% of their shots from the field from the corner 3 spot. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in two straight games. They have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 37 of their last 53 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range including their last six games at home. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. While the Celtics are playing great defense, they have not exploded on the other end of the court. Credit Dallas’ play on defense that has not given up more than 107 points in this series. The Mavericks did rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. Boston has won ten games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning seven or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-24 |
Stars v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Edmonton Oilers (4) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-27-11) has lost the last two games of this series after their 3-1 loss at home to the Oilers on Friday. Edmonton (60-32-7) has won five of their last seven games to take a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars have lost their scoring punch in these last two games. After generating 2.92 to 3.68 expected goals (xG) in Games One through Three, they only managed 1.95 xG in Game Four before registering just 1.95 xG in Game Five. They have only scored three combined goals in those two losses. Some of their key players are in slumps right now. Despite his hat trick in Game Three, Jason Robertson has not scored in his other last 13 games — and he has no points since scoring those three goals. Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene have no points in this series as well. Dallas has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road after a game where they did not score more than one goal — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a loss on their home ice. They have played 20 of their last 26 games on the road after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. The Oiler's strategy of protecting their goalie Stuart Skinner with a smothering defense that is limiting shot attempts has stymied the Stars. They have not generated more than 22 shots in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after playing three or more games where they did not put more than 24 shots on net. Edmonton has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. They have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. Additionally, the Oilers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two or more goals. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Edmonton’s tactics have helped Skinner. In his last seven stars, he has a 1.92 Goals-Against-Average and a solid .908 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 7 of their last 11 sixth games in a playoff series Under the Total — and the Stars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in Game Six of a playoff series. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Edmonton Oilers (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-24 |
Rangers v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (1) and the Florida Panthers (2) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (65-28-4) finds themselves on the brink of elimination with two straight losses in this series after their 3-2 setback at home on Thursday. Florida (63-27-8) has won seven of their last ten games while taking a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers are simply not generating enough offense in this series. They have not scored more than two goals in four of the five games in this series. They have generated only 23 shots in four of their last six contests. They had been surviving from their potent Power Play that scored on 26.4% of their opportunities in the regular season and in 40.0% of their chances with the man advantage in the first six games in the postseason. But in their last nine games, they have only scored twice in their last 24 Power Play chances for a woeful 8.3% success rate — and they are scoring only one of their 14 chances with the man advantage in this series. At five-on-five even strength in the playoffs, they rank only 12th of the 16 teams in expected Goals-For Percentage. One of the issues is that they simply do not have enough viable goal scorers. They have scored 11 goals in this series with just three players — Alexis Lafreniere, Barclay Woodrow, and Vincent Trocheck — accounting for nine of these goals. The Rangers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. And while they have surrendered at least three goals in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in three straight games. Don’t blame goalie Igor Shesterkin — he has a .934 save percentage in this series after stopping 34 of the 36 shots he faced on Thursday. He leads all postseason goaltenders this season with +12.2 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation (GSAx). In the last two games, he has stopped 25 of the 28 High-Danger Chances from the Panthers. New York has played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Florida has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. They have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last two games. Additionally, they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Panthers are dominating the shot attempts battle. They have outshot the Rangers by at least 10 shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outshooting their last three opponents by at least eight shots per game. They have generated at least 37 shots in those three games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after attempting at least 33 shots in three or more games in a row. And despite the help their defense is providing in limiting shots, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is playing well with a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage in this series. He has not given up more than two goals in 12 of his 16 starts this postseason. The Panthers have played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when leading a playoff series — and the Rangers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Finals. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (1) and the Florida Panthers (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-24 |
Borussia Dortmund v. Real Madrid UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202) in the UEFA Champions League Final. THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund reached the Champions League Final with their 2-0 aggregate victory against Paris Saint-Gemain last month. Real Madrid outlasted Manchester City with their 4-3 aggregate victory in the Semifinals. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium in London, England.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tactics make fights -- and both of these sides prefer to play in a defensive midblock position. They both prefer to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of these head coaches is going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top can create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach will be to goad Dortmund into a country attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. This will be a cagey affair -- and I don't think the approach from either side changes if they give up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal will be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent. Both of these sides see their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they gave up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals. eal Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also has the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022.
FINAL TAKE: Only six combined goals have been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four have seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Unde 2.UCL Finals combined goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
05-31-24 |
Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7 |
Top |
9-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Arizona (25-31) has lost four games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road to the Mets in the opening game of this four-game series. New York (23-33) snapped their three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have only scored nine combined runs in their last six games — and they have not scored more than two runs in five of those contests. Arizona has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less in two games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. Montgomery gets the ball looking to build on his 3-2 record along with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.70 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in three starts as opposed to his 6.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .329 in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent last year when he pitched for Texas and St. Louis. While Montgomery had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his 17 starts at home for those clubs, he was better away from home where he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 15 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that ranks 21st and 16th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has scored eight combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than three runs during that span. The Mets have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total at home after a win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games at home after a victory by two runs or less. They are scoring only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .204 batting average, a .276 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .603. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total at night. They counter with Severino who has a 2-2 record along with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hand has been better at home where he owns a 2.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in six starts as compared to his 5.16 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in four starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 27th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They are only scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, they are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .200 batting average, a .250 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and the Mets have played 35 of their last 49 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-24 |
Royals v. Twins UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (34-22) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Twins in the second game of this series. Minnesota (30-24) has won two straight games and six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. They are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .227 batting average, a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .630. Lugo gets the start looking to continue his outstanding season — he has an 8-1 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last six starts, he sports a 1.52 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 41 1/3 innings with 47 strikeouts and just eight walks. I don't think this elite level of performance is sustainable -- but he will still be pitching well even if his ERA regresses to his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.74. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 0.75 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .145 in five starts as opposed to his 2.72 EA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .261 in six starts at home. His teams have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home against AL Central rivals. They are scoring only 3.8 Rruns-Pe-Game at home with a .227 batting average along with a .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .689. They counter with Ober who will have revenge and redemption on his mind after the Royals rocked him for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his opening start of the season on Mach 31st. The right-hander has a 5-2 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts -- and he sports a 3.02 ERA in his last nine starts after that opening disaster. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging. His xERA from Statcast which incorporates exit velocities and hard-hit rates is 3.41. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.58 and 3.92 moving forward. Ober has pitched better at home where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .167 in four starts as opposed to his 5.52 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .252 in six starts on the road including his previous start against the Royals. The Twins have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with Ober as their starting pitcher in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams struggle against right-handed pitching. The Royals rank 29th in both weighted On-Base Average and weighed Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Twins rank 24th and 20th in weighted On-Base Aveeragee and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-28-24 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 212 |
Top |
105-100 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (64-32) has lost six of their last eight games after their 116-107 loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (61-36) has won five games in a row and seven of their last eight to take a 3-0 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks took Game Three despite allowing the Timberwolves to make 50.6% which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. But they also nailed 55.9% of their shots which was their best shooting performance in their last 44 games. Dallas has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where they shot 55% or more of their shots. The Mavs are due a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their shooting in this series. While they are making 58.1% of their shots, their expected field goal percentage which measures their shot location relative to league shooting averages is just 53.0%. The Mavericks have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after winning on their home court in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning five or more games in a row -- and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total at home after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Furthermore, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s -- and they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. They have also played 33 of their last 50 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last six contests by allowing the Mavericks to make 55.9%. of their shots. They did nail 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting performance in their last nine contests. The Timberwolves have not covered the point spread in this series -- and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. All three games in this series have finished Over the Total -- and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
05-27-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 223 |
Top |
105-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (75-20) has won six games in a row after their 114-111 victory on the road as a 7-point road favorite on Saturday. Indiana (55-44) has lost four of their last six games while dropping the first three games in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This decision is largely a contrarian reaction to the fact that both of these teams have played five straight Overs coming into this Game Four. But there is more. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported at 5 PM ET that he thinks that it is “unlikely” that Tyrese Haliburton will attempt to play tonight with him being listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. While Haliburton wants to play, management sees the big picture with their franchise player and will unlikely want to risk a more serious injury with this series all but decided. We were on the Pacers in Game Three despite not having Haliburton play. They made 50.5% of their shots and built a 15-point lead. They had an eight-point lead late in the game — but they managed to blow that advantage to lose for the third straight time in this series. Losing their best player is bad enough, but the other resulting concern is that Indiana’s shot profile is simply unsustainable to score 111 points (even when playing at a fast tempo). Haliburton plays a critical role in the spacing in their half-court offense for their 3-point shooting. They only made 4 of 20 shots from behind the arc on Friday — not only is a 20% clip not going to get it done, but neither is taking only 21% of their shots from the field from 3-point range in 2024. The Pacers took 46% of their shots from midrange — and only 32% of their shots came at the rim. Overall, the Pacers only took 54% of their shots either at the rim or behind the 3-point line. They stayed competitive in the game because they shot 59.2% inside the arc — but that is simply not sustainable especially when not attacking the rim. Boston has arguably been outplayed in two of three games in this series. They need to use this game to play harder on defense. Indiana has shot at least 50.5% from the field in each game in this series. The Celtics have allowed four straight opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing four or more straight opponents to make at least 47.5% from the field. Boston has played five straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing five or more Overs in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. FINAL TAKE: The Celtics are outscoring their opponents by +11.1 Points-Per-Game this season — and that helps trigger an empirical angle supporting the Under that has been 76% effective. In games with the Total set at 220 or higher, when a team is outscoring their opponents by at least +6 PPG and has played five or more Overs in a row, that game finished Under the Total in 32 of these last 42 situations. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
130-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with their 116-103 victory as a 5-point favorite at home on Friday. New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 17 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread victory. They have played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a win at home by 10 or more points. Now they go back on the road where they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s. Additionally, the Pacers have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total in a road game in the playoffs where they could potentially close out the series. New York has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Knicks return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when playing with revenge from a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-24 |
Canucks v. Oilers UNDER 6 |
Top |
1-5 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (25) and the Edmonton Oilers (26) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vancouver (51-26-10) has won two of the last three games to take a 3-2 series lead. Edmonton (55-30-7) returns home looking to stave off elimination and force a Game Seven. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is becoming a defensive series with each of the last two games only seeing five combined goals scored. Vancouver goaltender Arturs Silovs has not allowed more than three goals in the last three games in this series as he gets more comfortable between the pipes for this team playing for the injured Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith. He has a .918 save percentage in the last three games in this series. The Canucks are doing a good job of limiting the scoring chances of the Oilers. They rank second of the seven remaining NHL teams in the playoffs in High Danger Chances allowed. Vancouver has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. Edmonton has played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total this season when following a loss on the road by just one goal. The Oilers have also played 26 of their last 45 games Under the Total following an Under in their last game. Stuart Skinner returns as Edmonton’s starting goaltender after getting benched in Game Three. He has struggled — but getting the time off should help his physical and mental state. He did play better at home in the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.49 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage in 32 starts. FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 8 of their last 13 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and the Canucks have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (25) and the Edmonton Oilers (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-24 |
Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (63-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 104-92 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (57-36) can close things out tonight given their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder allowed the Mavericks to make 52.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City ranked fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season — and they have still held five of their last seven opponents to no higher than 42.9% shooting. The Thunder have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they rank just 11th of the 16 teams that made the playoffs with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 103.6. They are making only 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc against the Mavericks in this series. The Thunder have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last six games by making 52.6% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 34 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset victory. Dallas has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. The Mavs have won five of their last seven games — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they rank only 10th of the 16 playoff teams in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this postseason. Dallas has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Yea with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-24 |
Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-124 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Dallas Stars (10) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (55-29-7) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 5-1 loss at home to the Stars on Monday. Dallas (59-24-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 3-1 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche got shellshocked an hour before the puck dropped on Monday with the news that Vareri Nichushkin got suspended for six months for what appears to be another substance abuse violation for the troubled Russian. He was leading the team with nine goals in the postseason. He missed time for some sketchiness in last year’s playoffs — and this may be the final straw for him with the organization. But his absence leaves Colorado without their fourth-leading scorer in the regular season. The Avalanche was also without top blue-line defenseman Devon Toews who was ill and missed Game Four — he should be back on the ice tonight. Colorado has scored only one goal in each of their last two games — and their recipe for success is likely to be more defensive-minded to protect their embattled goaltender Alexandar Georgiev after giving up nine combined goals in their last two games. The Avalanche have surrendered at least three goals in five straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in five or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by two or more goals. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row at home. Colorado has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Dallas has not given up more than two goals in seven of their last nine games. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger who has a .923 save percentage in 11 postseason games — and he has registered +4.8 Goals Saved Above Expectation in those games. The Stars have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row by more than one goal. Dallas has scored at least four in each of their last three victories which have all been by multiple goals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring four or more goals in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Stars have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning on the road by two or more goals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two or more games on the road by more than one goal. FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Dallas Stars (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-24 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-101 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (1) and the New York Rangers (2) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (57-24-10) staved off elimination on Saturday with their 4-3 victory at home against the Rangers. New York (61-25-4) had won nine games in a row — and they can end this series tonight given their 3-1 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have allowed at least three goals in six straight games — but they registered their first power-play goal in this series in the third period when Brady Skejc beat the Rangers’ goaltender Igor Shesterkin to win this game and extend their season. Carolina has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Over the Total when facing potential elimination. Frederick Andersen will likely get the nod in goal for the Hurricanes again tonight. After stopping only 22 of the 25 shots he faced on Saturday, he has just a .874 save percentage in this series. In the regular season, he was much better at home where he enjoyed a 1.39 Goals-Against-Average and a .946 save percentage in ten starts. What makes this start ominous for the struggling goaltender is that he had a 2.72 GAA and a .906 save percentage in six starts on the road in the regular season — and he has a .871 save percentage in his two previous games at Madison Square Garden in this series after allowing four goals in both Games One and Two. The Hurricanes have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 51 of their last 82 road games Over the Total after a win at home against a Metropolitan Division rival. New York has scored at least three goals in ten straight games. The Rangers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in five or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by just one goal — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, New York has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored three or more goals. They return home to MSG where they are averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game — and they scored four goals apiece in Games One and Two (as mentioned above). The Rangers have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or higher. Igor Shesterkin has been great in the playoffs — but his home/road splits have been consistent this season. He had a 2.51 GAA and a .912 save percentage at home in the regular season — and those numbers are in the same range as his 2.66 GAA and .913 save percentage on the road. FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up four or more goals. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when they potentially could close out the series — and the Hurricanes have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Over the Total when attempting to avoid elimination. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (1) and the New York Rangers (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-24 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
115-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-28) won their first game in this series with their 117-90 victory as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Minnesota (62-27) had won six games in a row before that loss — they hold a 2-1 lead in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets enjoyed their best overall shooting game in over a month. Their 53.7% shooting percentage from the field was their best mark in their last ten games. They made 14 of their 28 shots (50%) from behind the arc. They scored at a 112.4 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court which was their most efficient clip in the postseason by 11 points. They scored 37 points in the third quarter alone. Head coach Michael Malone made two key adjustments to unlock the offense: (1) he had Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon dribble the ball up the court to ask less of Jamal Murray and (2) he emphasized getting the ball across mid-court in two to three seconds to quicker get into their half-court offense. It worked — but now the onus is on the Timberwolves’ head coach Chris Finch and his coaching staff to determine their counter move with the two days of preparation. Furthermore, the ongoing concern for this team is their lack of depth combined with their lingering injury situation. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson are all questionable with injuries -- and even if they play, their continuing effectiveness will be a concern. Denver also increased their intensity on defense. The biggest tactical change was that Jokic was less concerned with defending the paint to instead use his length to disrupt things on the perimeter. The Timberwolves only made 10 of their 33 shots (30%) from behind the arc despite attempting 45% of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road against an Atlantic Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Denver has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota will not be as sluggish as they were in Game Three — but they ranked a mediocre 12th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half-court. Jokic daring Karl-Anthony Towns to attack the glass may be worth the risk since KAT so often becomes passive and settles for outside shots. Towns only scored 14 points on a mere seven shots from the field on Friday. The T-Wolves should play much better on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. And while Game Three finished Under the Total, the Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 43 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-24 |
Golden Knights v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (25) and the Dallas Stars (26) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (48-31-9) forced a decisive Game Seven with their 2-0 victory at home against the Stars on Friday. Dallas (55-24-9) had won three games in a row in this series before that setback. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights staved off elimination — but they are still struggling to score goals, especially at even strength five-on-five. While Noah Hanifan broke up a scoreless game at the 9:56 minute mark of the third period, the final goal was an empty netter from Mark Stone with 19 seconds left in the game. Vegas has only scored two goals in each of their last four games. The Golden Knights have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in two or more games in a row. But they did get great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 23 shots he faced on Friday. Since taking over between the pipes in Game Five, Hill has a 1.52 Goals-Against-Average along with a .938 save percentage. His 6’6” frame makes him an imposing presence in front of the net. Going back to the Vegas championship run last year, Hill has a 2.09 GAA and a .933 save percentage in 18 games (16 starts). He has three shutouts in the postseason after Game Six — and his two other shutouts were against this Stars team in their playoff series last year. The Golden Knights have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a shutout victory. Furthermore, Vegas has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game. They have also played 4 of their 6 games Under the Total this season after a loss on the road by two or more goals. They have still won 15 of their last 20 games — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more games in their last 20 contests. Don’t blame Jake Oettinger for the Game Six loss since he stopped 28 of the 29 shots he faced. After an inconsistent regular season, Oettinger has been great in this series — he has a 2.10 GAA and a .921 save percentage in the first six games with a +2.0 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation mark. This will be his third start in a Game Seven — he posted a 1.78 GAA and a .956 save percentage in those prior two games. The Stars have played 3 of their 4 games at home this season Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. They have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout situations. FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a shutout loss to their opponent. 25* NHL TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (25) and the Dallas Stars (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-05-24 |
Magic v. Cavs UNDER 196 |
Top |
94-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
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At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (50-38) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 103-96 victory at home against the Cavaliers as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (51-37) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic took Game Six despite allowing the Cavaliers to make 48.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Orlando finished the regular season ranked third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In this series, they have held Cleveland to just 44.0% shooting which has resulted in only 94.2 Points-Per-Game. But the Magic are only making 43.4% of their shots in this series resulting in just 101.3 PPG themselves. Their shooting has been worse on the road where they have only made 38.1% of their shots including 25.2% of their 3s in their three games in Cleveland in this series. The Magic are scoring just 90.7 PPG in those three games while scoring more than 86 points only once. Orlando has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while the Magic have eight fewer personal fouls in each of the last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after committing at least five fewer personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games. Cleveland enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last seven games by making 48.8% of their shots on Friday. But the Cavaliers have not scored more than 104 points in this series — and they have not scored more than 97 points in five of the six games. Cleveland has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where neither team scored more than 105 points. The foul situation in the last two games has helped Orlando take 16 and 10 more shots at the free throw line as well — and the Cavaliers have played 24 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where they took at least 10 fewer shots at the charity stripe.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-04-24 |
Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (13) and the Boston Bruins (14) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-30-10) has won three of the last four games in this series after their 2-1 victory at home on Thursday. Boston (50-23-15) has lost the last two games of this series after taking a 3-1 lead after Game Four. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have survived because of great goaltending from Joseph Woll. Since taking over last in Game Four, he has stopped 54 of the 56 shots he has faced for a .964 save percentage. In his seven career games in the playoffs, Woll has a 1.78 Goals-Against-Average and a .933 save percentage. But Toronto’s scoring attack is still missing-in-action. They have only scored seven combined goals in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two goals in any of those games. Auston Matthews has not scored since Game Two as he battles an illness. While he should play tonight, he is not close to 100%. The Maple Leafs have scored only one time from their 20 power play opportunities in this series. Toronto has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in three straight games. They have played 23 of their last 38 games Under the Total after their last game finished Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing an Atlantic Division rival in their previous game — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after playing a divisional rival three times in a row. Boston is struggling to score as well — they have only two combined goals in their last two games. The prospect of blowing another 3-1 series lead seems to have impacted this team because they looked tight and skittish on the ice in the last two games. The Bruins blew a 3-1 series lead in the first round last year against Florida. David Pastrnak scored 47 goals and added 63 assists in the regular season — but he has only two goals and two assists in this series. Boston is also getting great goaltending from Jeremy Swayman who has a 1.60 GAA and a .947 save percentage in his five starts. The Bruins have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal to an Atlantic Division rival. They have also played 26 of their last 43 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in five days. FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-03-24 |
Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Vegas Golden Knights (4) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (55-23-9) has won three straight games in this series after their 3-2 victory at home against the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Vegas (47-31-9) looks to avoid elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series after winning Games One and Two.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights scoring attack has been stymied by the stout Stars defense. They have scored two goals in each of their last three games. Six of their 13 goals have been on the Power Play — there seven goals at even strength five-on-five are the second fewest in the postseason. Vegas is simply finding it difficult to find open spaces to then generate good shots on the Stars’ goaltender Jake Oettinger. The deeper metrics are ugly. The Golden Knights rank 15th of the 16 playoff teams in expected Goals-For (xGF). They are averaging only 6.6 High Danger Chances per game. They are only converting on 6.2% of their shot attempts. The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing on the road by just one goal in their last game. They return home to T-Mobile Arena where they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total following a game on the road. Vegas did get a good game from Adin Hill between the pipes — he stopped 22 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. He replaced Logan Thompson who was playing fine in this series — especially in Game Three where he almost stole the game single-handedly for the Golden Knights. Head coach Bruce Cassidy commented that he made the change to Hill because of his experience in high-pressure playoff games from the previous Stanley Cup title last year when he was their goaltender. In his 17 career games (15 starts) in the playoffs, Hill has a 2.22 Goals-Against-Average and a .930 save percentage. Dallas has only three goals in each of their three straight victories -- and they have then played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have won 15 of their last 19 games — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more games in their last 20 games. Goalie Jake Oettinger has been outstanding in this series. He stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. For the series, he has a 2.31 GAA and a .911 save percentage — and he has been at his best after giving up four goals on 15 shots in Game One. In his last three games, Oettinger has stopped 112 of the 120 shots he has faced for a .933 save percentage. He has also been great in clutch time in this series — he has stopped all 56 shots he has faced in the third period and overtime.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total in potential close-out games. Vegas has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Vegas Golden Knights (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-03-24 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 209 |
Top |
101-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-34) has lost six of their last eight games after their 123-93 loss at home to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Dallas (53-34) has a 3-2 series lead with the chance to close out the series tonight. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Mavericks to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 contests. They miss Kawhi Leonard who remains an outstanding defender — but head coach Ty Lue will demand a better effort from his players on that end of the court. Leonard will miss tonight’s game as well as he, as always, manages his knee problem — and the Clippers also miss his scoring. Los Angeles has not scored more than 93 points in three of the last four games in this series. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. And in their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Los Angeles has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine games by nailing 54.0% of their shots. The Mavs should continue to be tough to score on in this series. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Dallas has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a win on the road by 10 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-02-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
118-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset loss in overtime at home to the 76ers as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Philadelphia (50-38) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It took overtime for Game Five to finish Over the Total — that game was tied at 97 at the end of regulation. The Knicks made 46.5% of their shots which was their second-best shooting effort in this series. But New York’s 3-point shooting has collapsed. After only making 7 of their 27 shots from behind the arc, they shot just 10 of their 36 shots from 3-point range on Tuesday — that’s a 27.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land in their last two games. The Knicks have not shot better than 43% in three of the five games in this series. But they are playing tough defense led by O.G. Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein. They are holding the Sixers to a low 54.8% shooting percentage at the rim. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Philadelphia only made 48.1% of their shots at the rim on Tuesday. And despite them making 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) from behind the arc, they only scored at a 110.9 points per 100 possession rate. For comparison's sake, the 76ers scored at a 116.3 points per 100 adjusted possession rate in the regular season — and their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Game Five would rank 26th in the league if extended for the entire season. Joel Embiid deserves credit for taking the court — but he is so banged up with several maladies including his chronic left knee and now Bell's palsy. He needs rest — and he simply is not in the physical state to take his game down low. Instead, he is trying to survive out on the perimeter — but in his last two games, he is making only 36.8% of his shots including just a 20% shooting mark from behind the arc. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Sixers have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-pint range. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-38) avoided the sweep and snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets with a 119-108 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Denver (60-26) had won four games in a row before that loss. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with a calf injury. Murray scored 21.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while dishing out 6.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is one of their best deep threats by making 42.5% of his 3s. Reggie Jackson will take his likely take his place in the starting lineup — but he is banged up with an ankle injury and has been battling an illness for more than a week. Denver needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Lakers to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Nuggets have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they have played 9 straight Unders against teams from the Pacific Division opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last five contests by making 52.2% of their shots. They got 22 points from D’Angelo Russell — but his scoring remains erratic after he put up a doughnut in Game Three. The Lakers have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after an upset win by double-digits. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they scored only 103 and 99 points in the opening two games of this series. They did hold the Nuggets to just 107.5 PPG in those contests. The Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first round of the playoffs. FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 27 of their last 45 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 potential close-out games in the playoffs. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-28-24 |
Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 217 |
Top |
113-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-35) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 121-118 loss in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Indiana (49-37) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks will likely be without Damian Lillard tonight after he first twisted his ankle in Game Three before later wrenching his Achilles in the fourth quarter. While Lillard declared that he expected to play after the game, he was in a walking boot yesterday and was listed as doubtful. Milwaukee probably does not want to risk Lillard aggravating that injury the way Golden State did with Kevin Durant a few years ago. The team is already without Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doubtful to return from his calf injury. Even if one (or both) of these players take the court, neither is likely to be close to 100%. Khris Middleton stepped up with 42 points on Friday — but now he is being asked to carry the team on offense which is not his strength. Lillard scored 28 points in Game Three. With Lillard out, head coach Doc Rivers will likely turn to Malik Beasley who is an improvement on the defensive end of the court. Beasley’s size makes him an interesting choice to defend Tyrese Haliburton — and that would allow for their top defender Patrick Beverley to clamp down on Andrew Nembhard. One thing that seems certain is that Rivers will continue to do everything he can to get this game into “mud” as he declared before the series started. After the 97 mutual possessions (adjusted possessions per 48 minutes) in Game One, there were 92.5 possessions in Game Two before just the 89.2 adjusted possession rate in Game Three which includes the pace in overtime. That game went into overtime with the score tied at 111 — helped by Lillard’s 28 points. The Bucks have played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indiana only made 13 of their 49 shots from behind the arc for a 27% shooting percentage. Tyrese Halliburton does not appear to be at 100% as he recovers from the injuries that slowed him down during the regular season — he missed 11 of his 12 shots from downtown. The Pacers' bench scoring production is down as well. After leading the NBA by getting 46.8 Points-Per-Game from their bench in the regular season, the second unit is only scoring 23.3 PPG in this series, down -23.5 PPG. Indiana has played 4 of their 6 games this season Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 42 of their last 63 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 8 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in 14 days, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with double revenge including six of those last nine circumstances. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-24 |
Predators v. Canucks OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (77) and the Vancouver Canucks (78) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Nashville (47-31-5) has lost two games in a row after dropping Game One of this series by a 4-2 score on Sunday. Vancouver (51-23-9) has won three of their last four games. REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Predators continue to struggle in slowing down their opponents’ scoring attack as they have conceded at least four goals in three straight games. Goalie Juuse Saros is in a slump after allowing three or more goals in three of his last four starts. In his final six starts in the regular season this month, he was saddled with a 3.18 Goals-Against-Average with a .904 save percentage. Nashville has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Predators have also played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a loss by more than one goal. And while they ended the regular season with a 4-2 loss at Pittsburgh, Nashville has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row by more than one goal. This is their fifth game in the last two weeks — and they have played 6 straight Overs on the road when playing for no more than the fifth time in 14 days — and they have played 24 of their last 37 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Vancouver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Over the Total after a win by more than one goal. They have played 24 of their last 39 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. First-string goaltender Thatcher Demko remains out with an undisclosed injury. Casey DeSmith is between the pipes for the Canucks tonight — but he had a meager 3.14 GAA and a .877 save percentage in his last 14 games in the regular season after the All-Star break. Vancouver has played 3 of their last 4 games at home Over the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Predators have lost five straight games to the Canucks with Vancouver scoring at least four goals in three straight games against them. Nashville has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge against their opponent while giving up at least three goals in both losses — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (77) and the Vancouver Canucks (78). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 |
Top |
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers may be rusty with the three full days off since their game against the Pelicans — and they only made 41.7% of their shots in that game. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have fresh legs which will help them on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game where they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their two previous games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Denver comes into the postseason to defend their NBA title on a hot streak regarding their shooting. The Nuggets have shot at least 50.5% from the field in their last three games — and they have played five straight games where they nailed at least 48.9% of their shots. But Denver has then played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in five straight contests. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. This will be the fifth game this season that Denver will be playing with three or more days of rest after their last contest — and they have played 3 of those first 4 games Under the Total. After playing their last two games on the road, the Nuggets return home — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing their two previous games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has won the last eight meetings between these two teams after the Nuggets’ 124-114 victory as a 1-point favorite in Los Angeles on March 2nd. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 211 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. But head coach Mike Brown has his team playing much better on the defensive end of the court — and they are also playing at a slower pace to compensate for their now very thin bench. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests. In their last 10 games, Sacramento’s pace has dropped to just 96.55 adjusted possessions per game which is the third-slowest in the NBA during that span. But while Sacramento ranks 14th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season, they have risen all the way up to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. The Kings have held their last five opponents to 45.7% shooting which has resulted in 106.2 Points-Per-Game — and that is -2.2% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Kings have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total in April including seven of their nine games this month. New Orleans now has their own significant injury news to deal with after Zion Williamson injured his left calf late in the game on Tuesday which will keep him out for tonight’s contest. He led the way with 40 points in the loss to the Lakers — and the Pelicans will very much miss his scoring tonight. But Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Brandon Ingram is healthy again — but he does not appear to be close to 100% yet. He only played 25 minutes on Tuesday and was not on the court in crunch time in the fourth quarter. He scored only 11 points on 4 of 12 shooting — and he has averaged just 12 PPG in his two games back in action. As it is and even with Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense has slowed down in the half-court to close out the regular season. While they ranked 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half court during the regular season, they dropped to 18th by scoring only 97.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in their final ten regular season games. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record, they have played 15 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win in Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on April 11th. Sacramento has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-24 |
Predators v. Penguins UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-4 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (39) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (40). THE SITUATION: Nashville (47-29-5) has won two games in a row after their 6-4 victory against Columbus on Saturday. Pittsburgh (37-31-12) has lost two of their last three games after a 6-4 loss against Boston on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game involves two teams with similar profiles. Both teams still have something at stake in the playoff races. Both teams were struggling for most of the season before a veteran leader put his teammates on his back to orchestrate a furious late-season postseason push. Both teams have played higher-scoring teams lately — but those recent results may point to a lower-scoring affair tonight. The Predators have clinched one of the final two wildcard spots in the Western Conference. They are three points ahead of Vegas for the seventh seed — but this is Nashville’s final game of the regular season while the Golden Knights have a game in hand so the Predators need some result to help them avoid dropping to the eighth seed. Led by Roman Josi, Nashville has a 20-4-3 mark in their last 27 games. The Predators got their scoring attack going against the lowly Blue Jackets on Saturday — but they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after scoring four or more goals in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after scoring six or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Nashville has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a win by two or more goals — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after a game where eight or more combined goals were scored. The Predators beat Chicago on the road in their previous game by a 5-1 score — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by more than one goal. They have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. Juuse Saros will be between the pipes tonight. He has a solid 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .910 save percentage in 24 starts on the road — and he enjoys a 2.67 GAA and a .913 save percentage in his 23 starts after the All-Star break. Nashville has played 22 of their last 31 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Pittsburgh has two games remaining in the regular season this week — and they need points as they currently trail three times that are one point ahead of them in the logjam for the final wildcard slot in the Eastern Conference. Led by Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have a 7-1-3 record in their last 11 games. Pittsburgh has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Penguins have allowed 11 combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 18 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. Alex Nedeljkovic will be their goalie tonight — he has a 2.71 GAA and a .909 save percentage in his 18 games at home this season. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on November 28th with the Predators winning in Nashville by a 3-2 score. The Penguins have played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge. With both teams playing with playoff intensity, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (39) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
99-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-09-24 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
102-87 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 146 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-24 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 226 |
Top |
106-108 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-24 |
Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
67-84 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 155 |
Top |
52-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (29-8) has won seven straight games after their 72-69 upset victory against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Connecticut (34-3) has won ten games in a row with their 82-52 victory against San Diego State as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden Arena in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Illini played their best game on defense in their last five contests by holding the Cyclones to just 39.7% shooting from the field. But defense is not a staple for this Illinois team that ranks 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are still allowing +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the 316th worst drop in efficiency when compared to a team’s defensive efficiency when playing at home. They rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their 19 games away from home — and that is not simply a function of playing in hostile environments since they also rank 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their eight games played on a neutral court. To make matters worse for head coach Brad Underwood, it is very difficult to prepare for Huskies’ head coach Dan Hurley’s complex offensive sets — especially with only one day to prepare. The Illini only made 42.1% of their shots against the tough Iowa State defense — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Fighting Illini are a powerhouse on that end of the court. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games — and they also lead the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They score +12.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the biggest jump in the nation. They make 47.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.6 Points-Per-Game on the road which is +1.4 more PPG than their season average. But they allow their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots including 36.1% of their 3s resulting in 78.1 PPG which is +4.9 PPG above their season average. Illinois has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. UConn made 46.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Huskies are scoring 82.7 PPG in this Big Dance despite only making 30.6% of their 3-pointers. They make 36.2% of their 3s on the season while ranking number in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, they fall to second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, just behind the Illini. They outrebounded the Aztecs by a 50-29 margin — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by +20 or more boards. But the Huskies have played four straight Unders on the strength of their defense and they have not allowed more than 58 points in those four games. A few things about this Under trend. UConn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have won all four of those games by at least 16 points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who score 84 or more PPG. On the road, they are also giving up +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions than when they are at home. The Huskies have a great roster but they probably lack the player who can slow down the Illini’s Terrence Shannon.
FINAL TAKE: UConn attempts 24 shots from behind the arc per game — and Illinois has played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against winning teams — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-29-24 |
Creighton v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 |
Top |
75-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (25-9) has won five of their last six games after their 86-73 victory in double-overtime against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (26-8) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 62-58 win against Texas as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bluejays only made 38.7% of their shots against the Ducks last weekend — but they did convert on 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) of their shots from 3-point range (many of them in the second double overtime period to ruin our Oregon play). Creighton lives and dies by their 3-point shooting — they rank seventh in the nation by taking 48.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Their reliance on 3s could spell trouble when facing this stout Volunteers defense that ranks 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.9% of their 3-pointers. The Bluejays score -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — that discrepancy is the 352nd worst split in the nation. The problem for Creighton is they lack a Plan B if their 3s are not falling. They are dead last in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They only rebound 26.2% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. They are the only team left in the Big Dance that has a negative Shot Volume mark relative to what they surrender. But head coach Greg McDermott’s squad is a good defensive team that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacrificing offensive rebounding allows the Bluejays to get back on defense — and not going for turnovers limits the fouls they commit. They have the best defensive foul rate in the nation. They play great half-court defense by ranking 10th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.2%. The focus on defense is to get their opponent off the 3-point line — they rank sixth in the nation with their opponents only taking 27.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Made 3s consist of only 25.1% of their opponent’s points which is the 336th lowest mark. Creighton has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tennessee has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. This Volunteers team was supposed to be different and not offensively challenged given the emergence of Dalton Knecht. But Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combined to miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc. These primary scorers may be feeling the pressure to compensate for the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. His struggles are impacting the flow of the offense — not only did Tennessee only make 33.8% of their shots against the Longhorns, but they had more turnovers than assists. Creighton will give the Vols the midrange — but Knecht only connects on 39% of his midrange jumpers. Tennessee will rely on its defense that held Texas without a 3-pointer for 24 straight minutes on Saturday. The Volunteers rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their 44.1% opponent’s effective field goal percentage ranks fourth in the nation — and they hold their opponents to 44.1% shooting inside the arc. Tennessee has played 30 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of their games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 |
Top |
96-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-24 |
Drake v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (28-6) has won five straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after upsetting Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game as a 3-point underdog on March 10th. Washington State (24-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 58-52 loss to Colorado as a 2-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs nailed 51.7% of their shots in their upset victory against the Sycamores 11 days ago which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. With the extended layoff between games, their shooting may be rusty tonight — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests — so head coach Darian DeVries will likely have his team tighten up on that end of the court. Drake struggled on the defensive end of the court in hostile environments where they had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 103.9 — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their seven games on neutral courts of 97.8 this season was in line with their 98.5 defensive efficiency clip when playing on their home court. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, Drake has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders and 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Drake scores -2.7 fewer Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they do not engage the things to increase their scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. They force turnovers in just 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 142nd. They rank 186th in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not gotten great point guard play from sophomore Conor Enright or freshman Coby Colby who split time — it is why DeVries has resorted to deploying his son, Tucker, as a point forward. But that may not be effective against the outstanding half-court defense of the Cougars. Drake can’t get mired into being too reliant on outside shooting where they do make 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. Washington State ranks 51st in the nation by holding their opponents to a 31.6% shooting clip from behind the arc when playing away from home — and they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Myles Rice is their only player who has the skills to create Despite their loss to the Buffaloes last week, they held them to just 43.1% shooting. They surrender -3.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they also only score 69.7 PPG on the road which is -4.7 fewer PPG than their season average — and the -8.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road represents the 342nd worst drop in scoring efficiency when compared to their home numbers. Head coach Kyle Smith is going to slow this game to a crawl — the Cougars rank 315th in the nation with only 64.9 adjusted possessions per game. Washington State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. And while the Bulldogs make 47.9% of their shots, the Cougars have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to be a rock fight given the lack of scoring options for both teams. Washington State has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 Points-Per-Game — and Drake has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-24 |
Colorado State v. Virginia UNDER 121 |
Top |
67-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers tend to get into rock fight contests — especially against teams unfamiliar with their brand of the pack line defense. Virginia ranks seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also like to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. They rank 352nd in the nation by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 362nd in the nation by averaging 59.9 adjusted possessions per game. Head coach Tony Bennett has had his team slow things down even more lately. In the Cav’s last three games, they have averaged 21.0, 21.5, and 22.6 seconds per possession. For some context, Air Force was the slowest team in the nation averaging 20.5 seconds per possession — so Bennett has his team going even slower than that. Virginia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while this is their third game since Thursday, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Virginia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Colorado State has played 8 straight Unders after winning four of their last five games. And while the Rams have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then played 4 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in four or more of their last five games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. But the Rams’ 46.4% shooting percentage and 72.4 PPG scoring mark away from home are 2.4% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. They score -4.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They rank 241st in the nation by making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc away from home — and their inability to make 3s will make solving the Virginia pack line defense very difficult. They are led by point guard Isaiah Stevens — but he has a difficult challenge tonight when he will be guarded by Reece Beekman who is a glove defensively. Colorado State has played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when on a neutral court — and Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-24 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky UNDER 145 |
Top |
71-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UTEP (18-15) has won five straight games after their 65-63 upset win against Sam Houston State as a 5-point underdog yesterday afternoon. Western Kentucky (21-11) has won two games in a row after their 85-54 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTEP only made 43.7% of their shots yesterday — but they held the Bearkats to just 41.2% shooting while holding them to just 53 points. The Miners have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Conference USA opponent — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less this season. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 9 games played with one day or less of rest, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. UTEP only makes 41.3% of their shots on the road resulting in just 65.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.7% and -7.2 PPG below their season averages. They rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road which is the 262nd worst drop in the country. But the Miners also rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are giving up -1.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. A key dynamic for this contest is that UTEP leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. The Hilltoppers play at the fastest pace in the nation — but the pressure the Miners present will slow down their attack. Western Kentucky ranks 262nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. UTEP has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. Western Kentucky wants to build off their strong defensive effort yesterday after limiting the Blue Raiders to just 31.0% shooting in their 31-point victory. The Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. And while they made 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc yesterday, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. Western Kentucky has scored 85 or more points in their two tournament games this week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have scored at least 79 points in five straight games — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Hilltoppers’ fast pace makes Overs tempting when considering them but they only make 45.4% of their shots on the road resulting in 77.7 PPG — and those numbers are -1.4% and -3.0 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They are also giving up -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Western Kentucky has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Western Kentucky won on their home court by a 90-80 score on February 15th. The Miners have played 5 of their 6 opportunities to avenge an earlier loss this season Under the Total. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-24 |
Alabama A&M v. Texas Southern UNDER 136 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-112 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504) in the Semifinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama A&M (12-21) has won three of their last four games after their 75-63 upset victory against Alcorn State as a 3-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Wednesday. Texas Southern (15-15) has won six of their last seven contests after their 72-62 victory as a 3-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Alabama A&M has pulled off two straight upsets relying on their defense. After holding Southern University to 37.2% shooting last Saturday in their 66-56 victory, they limited Alcorn State to just a 37.0% field goal percentage in their upset victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. Alabama A&M has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contest. But the Bulldogs rank only 356th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Granted, we are talking about a SWAC team in what is not one of the strongest conferences in the nation. But they rank just 10th in the SWAC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they fall to 11th in that metric when playing on the road. They are making only 40.6% of their shots on the road including just 25.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 66.4 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But back to their defense which has held their last five opponents to 64.4 PPG from 39.7% shooting from the field — and those marks are -11.0 PPG and -2.7% below their season averages. They lead the SWAC by limiting their opponents to making only 41.7% of their shots inside the arc. SWAC opponents are making only 38.5% of their shots against them overall — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in conference play. Furthermore, Alabama A&M has played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas Southern comes off their best defensive game of the season after limiting Jackson State to a 32.3% shooting percentage yesterday. While I often think that is a mark screaming out for the Regression Gods, in this instance I suspect it is reflective of the tough defense this team has embraced under head coach Johnny Jones as they enter the postseason. That game finished Under the 140.5-point total — and the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their previous game. Texas Southern is second in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference in that metric when playing on the road. They also rank a very respectable 60th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. On the road, Texas Southern holds their opponents to -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But unfortunately for them, they also score -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They only make 39.3% of their shots including 29.1% of their 3-pointers away from home resulting in just 65.8 PPG — and those marks are -2.1% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. Their last five-game scoring numbers are up — but that comes from three games on their home court where they scored at least 79 points in each game while generating 84.0 PPG. But in their last three games away from home, they have not scored more than 77 points. The Tigers have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern won the only previous meeting between these teams this season in an 85-69 victory at home. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-24 |
San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 150.5 |
Top |
77-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
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At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (23-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-51 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. Gonzaga (24-6) has won eight straight games after their 70-57 upset victory at Saint Mary’s as a 3.5-point underdog on March 2nd. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. They stepped up their play on defense by holding the Pilots to just 32.7% shooting — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55% of their shots in their last contest. Additionally, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points against a West Coast Conference rival. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. And they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They are making 45.7% of their shots on the road resulting in 71.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.3% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in those road games. But on the other end of the court, they are holding their opponents to just 42.2% shooting with a 32.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.9 PPG. The Dons rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to the eighth-best defense in the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on the road ranking 21st in the nation — and they are giving up -8.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Gonzaga made 51.7% of their shots against the Gaels which was the worst shooting effort in their alt three games — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have won six straight games by 13 or more points — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 13 games on the road after winning four or more games in a row, they have then played 11 of these games Under the Total. The Bulldogs are scoring 80.3 PPG away from home with a 49.6% field goal percentage — but those numbers are still -5.3 PPG and -2.3% below their season averages. They hold their opponents to 42.7% shooting and 69.9 PPG on the road — and they are giving up -3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. Interestingly, head coach Mark Few has his team playing at a slower pace lately — they are averaging 1.3 fewer possessions per game in their last ten games. The Dons are outscoring their opponents by +12.3 PPG — and Gonzaga has played 7 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 161.5 |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). THE SITUATION: Arizona (88-65) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 88-65 victory as a 9.5-point favorite as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. USC (13-17) has won two games in a row after their 81-73 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 51.9% of their shots against the Bruins which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 51.8% of their shots in their last five contests. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 90.3 Points-Per-Game. They have scored 85 or more points in four straight games as well as nine of their last 11 contests. But they have also allowed 75 or more points in five of their last eight contests as well. They play at a very fast pace — they average only 15.1 seconds per possession which is the eighth quickest mark in the nation. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while this is just their second game since February 28th, they have then played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. Arizona stays on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +4.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they are also giving up 80.6 PPG on the road — and the +8.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are giving up away from home represents the 342nd biggest jump in the nation. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. USC has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Trojans have scored 163 combined points in their last two games — and they are making 48.6% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 77.8 PPG. But they have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Sun Devils enjoyed a 50% shooting clip against them on Thursday. USC has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the Trojans rank 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total on their home court. USC has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won the first meeting on January 17th by an 82-67 score as a 20.5-point favorite — and the Trojans have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Rhode Island v. Fordham OVER 146.5 |
Top |
58-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). THE SITUATION: Rhode Island (11-19) has lost seven games in a row after their 69-57 loss at home to George Mason as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Fordham (12-18) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after a 66-64 loss at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Rhode Island made only 29.4% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting performance of their season. That game finished well Under the 142.5-point total — but these Rams have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Rhode Island has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots resulting in 84.0 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they rank 337th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots and 37.3% of their 3-pointers when on the road resulting in 81.9 PPG. They are surrendering +5.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road — but they are also scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home as well. They rank 35th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home — and Fordham allows their guests to make 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Rhode Island has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Rhode Island should also get plenty of points from the charity stripe as they lead the Atlantic 10 in free throw rate — and Fordham is last in the conference in putting their opponent on the line. Fordham has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Their loss against the Minutemen on Wednesday finished Under the 143-point Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Fordham ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they rank 222nd in the nation in that metric. They allow their opponents to guests to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 73.7 PPG — and they are giving up +9.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They are also scoring +3.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The hosting Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs at home when playing 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-68 score as a 2.5-point underdog on January 24th — and Rhode Island has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-24 |
Utah State v. San Jose State OVER 144.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). THE SITUATION: Utah State (24-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six after their 72-60 victory against Air Force as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. San Jose State (9-21) has lost five games in a row after their 68-50 loss at UNLV as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies rank 11th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they lead the Mountain West Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Utah State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win at home by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 60 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 76.4 Points-Per-Game while giving up 72.5 PPG. They rank second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but sit just eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they are giving up +8.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road in hostile environments. The Aggies have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss where they did not score more than 60 points — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. And while their loss to the Runnin’ Rebels finished Under the 138.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Spartans return home where they are nailing 47.8% of their shots resulting in 76.1 PPG — and those marks represent a +6.2 PPG and a +3.1% bump over their season averages. But they are also allowing their guests to make 47.4% of their shots including 39.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG which is +2.2 PPG higher than their season defensive average. San Jose State scores +8.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions when at home which ranks 29th in the nation in the biggest jump. They also allow +4.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home, ranking 307th worst in the country. The Spartans have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation as they rank 281st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 331st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% which does not bode well against a great shooting team like the Aggies. Utah State made 60% of their shots including a 6 of 12 mark from behind the arc en route to their 82-61 victory against the Spartans at home on January 30th — and San Jose State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-24 |
North Carolina-Asheville v. Radford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
71-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (19-11) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 78-77 upset loss at home against Gardner-Webb as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Radford (15-15) had their two-game winning streak end in a 58-57 upset loss at Charleston Southern as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots in their loss last week which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. UNC-Asheville has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after an upset loss to a Big South rival. And while that game with Gardner-Webb finished Over the 1553.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last contest. The Bulldogs lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9% — and they rank 22nd in the nation by making 37.5% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 75.9 Points-Per-Game -- fueled by the sixth-best free throw rate when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 47th in the nation by making 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. But UNC-Asheville ranks 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 307th in that nation in that metric when playing on the road in hostile environments. The adjusted +8.3 points per 100 possessions they allow in hostile environments represents the 339th worst spike in the country. They are giving up 78.8 PPG in those games. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. The Highlanders make 46.5% of their shots — and UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams making 45% or more of their shots. Radford made only 41.8% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They still rank third in the Big South in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five games. More surprisingly, they held Charleston Southern to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Highlanders rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in the Big South in that category. Radford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they are scoring 76.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting — and those marks are +3.4 PPG and +3.0% above their season average. The Highlanders rank 14th in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court. But they also rank 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and the +5.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions they allow represents the 318th biggest jump when assessing home court play. Radford has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Bulldogs average eight made 3s per game, the Highlanders have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Radford has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-01-24 |
Old Dominion v. Georgia Southern OVER 152.5 |
Top |
75-92 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (7-23) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 89-64 loss at Appalachian State as a 14.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (7-23) has won two of their last three games after their 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Old Dominion plays at a fast pace — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per Game while ranking 46th in their Average Possession Length. They have been playing even quicker in conference play as they lead the Sun Belt with 72.5 Adjusted Possessions per Game while averaging 16.2 Seconds per Possession. The Monarchs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Old Dominion ranks 214th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to ranking 312th in the nation in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Furthermore, they rank 233rd in the nation in their drop in Adjusted Net Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.3% of their shots resulting in 82.5 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 73.2 PPG in those road games. The Monarchs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rises by 5.5 points when they are playing in hostile environments — and that bump ranks as the 38th biggest jump in the nation. Old Dominion has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their games. Georgia Southern played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Thundering Herd to 73 points. The Eagles rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But by making 56.9% of their shots in that game on Wednesday, they made at least 50.9% of their shots for the third time in their last four games. Georgia Southern has scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 80.0 PPG. They have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. They have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a victory by ten or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they are making 47.1% of their shots including 41.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.5 PPG. They are scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and that rise in efficiency is the sixth largest for home courts in the nation. Georgia Southern has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion only makes 41.9% of their shots but they average 62 shot attempts per game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-24 |
Towson v. North Carolina A&T UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
84-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). THE SITUATION: Towson (17-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-56 loss to the College of Charleston as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina A&T (7-22) has lost seven straight games after their 83-67 loss at Monmouth as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers allowed the Cougars to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games — and the 72 points they gave up was the most they had allowed in five straight contests. Towson still leads the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting from the field resulting in only 61.4 Points-Per-Game. The Tigers should tighten things up on defense tonight — they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 15 or more points. But Towson can struggle to score points. They rank 227th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are just eighth in the conference in that category. They go back on the road where they are only making 38.4% of their shots resulting in just 62.3 PPG. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored by double-digits. UNC A&T only made 28.3% of their shots on Saturday — but that was only their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last five games in a span where they have not shot better than 38.2% from the field. In their last five games, the Aggies are making only 32.4% of their shots resulting in just 57.6 PPG. They are last in the Colonial Athletic Association and 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The 67 points they scored was their highest total in their last nine contests. UNC A&T has then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 45.1% shooting resulting in 68.5 PPG — and those marks are -3.2% and -9.7 PPG lower than their season averages. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams can shoot the basketball. Towson ranks 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.7% and UNC A&T ranks 355th with an eFG of 44.2%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and the Aggies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-24 |
Pittsburgh v. Clemson OVER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (18-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 79-64 victory at Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Clemson (19-8) has won five of their last six games with their 74-63 win against Florida State as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers held the Hokies to just 40.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court — especially in the interior where they rank 13th in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 53.3% of their 2-point shots. And in their true road games, they allow their home hosts to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 329th in the nation. The Tigers' big man P.J. Hall should have a big night — he is scoring 18.7 Points-Per-Game while making more than 68% of his shots in the paint. Clemson ranks 38th in the nation by making 54.4% of their shots inside the arc. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points on their home court. Additionally, while Pitt has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Panthers rank just eighth in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. But Pitt can put up points as they take advantage of most of their possessions and launch tons of 3s. They rank 18th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.2% of their possessions. They also rank 25th in the nation by taking 45.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they are scoring 72.9 PPG — and they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring +9.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road when compared to their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 41.4% shooting, Pitt has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. Clemson held the Seminoles to just 36.9% shooting on Saturday on the heels of limiting Georgia Tech to a 30.2% field goal percentage last Wednesday — but they have then played 6 straight Overs after holding their last two opponents to no higher than 37% shooting. They only made 44.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Tigers are still making 49.8% of their shots in their also five games — and they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Clemson has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a double-digit win at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they are allowing +1.9 more points per possession per 100 possessions in adjusted numbers — and that number ranks 245th in the largest home/road discrepancy. They are scoring 80.3 PPG at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, Clemson has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in February. And while the Panthers are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh looks to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Clemson as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 3rd — and they have played 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. The Panthers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-24 |
Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
69-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). THE SITUATION: Coppin State (2-22) has lost eight games in a row after their 68-66 loss to Norfolk State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Howard (12-15) has won three of their last four games after their 78-72 victory against Morgan State as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are far away from being one of the best teams in college basketball — and it starts with their offense where they rank last in Division I in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank third to the bottom in Division I with their effective field goal percentage of 40.3. They only made 32.7% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss — and while I like to fade outlier shooting efforts like that in a team’s next game, that shooting performance was only tied for their sixth-lowest mark of the season. Coppin State has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They only scored 24 points in the first half on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where the adjusted efficiency numbers project them to score -10.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do when playing at home. They are only making 36.0% of their shots away from home including 26.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 53.3 Points-Per-Game. Coppin State has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. If there is one thing that the Eagles do well, it is force turnovers — they rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Bison are vulnerable in this area since they turn the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 350th in the nation. Taking away Howard’s scoring opportunities should keep the score of this game down. Coppin State also plays at a slow pace — their games average 66.4 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Howard has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to just 42.9% shooting including a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. And while the Bison are a good shooting team at home, they are going to lose possessions to this Eagles team because they turn the ball over in 22.4% of their possessions when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Howard has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have been favored by double-digits three previous times this season — and all three games finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Howard won the first meeting between these two teams on January 29th by an 81-66 score — but Coppin State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Eagles have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Kings v. Clippers UNDER 239 |
Top |
123-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Wright State v. Oakland OVER 159.5 |
Top |
96-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). THE SITUATION: Wright State (16-12) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 93-78 victory at Detroit Mercy as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Oakland (19-10) has won four games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 63-43 win at Robert Morris as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders nailed 53.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the fifth time in their last six games where they shot 50% or better from the field — and they have scored 85 or more points in four of their last five games. But they allowed the Titans to make 51.7% of their shots which was the third time in their last four games where their opponents made at least 50% of their shots. Wright State is an Over Machine because they shoot great and play at a fast pace but can’t stop anybody on the other end. The Raiders rank second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% — and they rank in the top 11 in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. But they also rank 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponents post a 56.6% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking 354th in the nation. Wright State ranks 28th in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession — and they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Raiders have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three contests. While this is their second game since last Saturday, they have also played 11 straight Overs when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay on the road where they average slightly more 73.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 17th in the nation. They make 51.8% of their shots on the road along with 41.0% of their 3-pointers (which leads the nation) resulting in 85.1 Points-Per-Game. But they allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 84.0 PPG. Wright State has played 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Oakland only made 34.5% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst shooting of the season — but they also held the Colonials to just 28.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort of their campaign. While that final score flew Under the 147-point total, the Grizzlies have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have played 15 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after winning four games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they made 47.6% of their shots including 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 82.2 PPG. They also average 69.2 adjusted possessions per game at home which is +1.9 possessions above their season average. But the Grizzlies defense takes a step back when they are playing at home. While Oakland ranks 146th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second in Horizon League play, those numbers drop to 253rd in the nation and eighth in the conference when they are playing at home. The collapse comes from their interior defense as they allow their guests to make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 308th in the nation — and Wright State ranks ninth in the nation by making 56.4% of their 2-pointers when playing away from home. Oakland has played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total in February.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders want to avenge a 74-60 upset loss at home to Oakland back on February 10th in their worst shooting game of the season where they made only 33.8% of their shots including just 5 of their 28 (17.9%) shots from behind the arc. Wright State has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149 |
Top |
68-92 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (12-17) has won two games in a row after their 89-70 victory at Pacific as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Francisco (21-7) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss at Saint Mary’s as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Waves held Pacific to just 41.9% shooting on Wednesday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last eight games. But Pepperdine continues to struggle with their half-court defense as they rank 350th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.2% — and they allow their opponents to make 54.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 327th. The Wave have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They have averaged a whopping 90 points in their last two games with both those contests combining for 160 points — and they have played 7 straight Overs after playing two games in a row where 155 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they allow their opponents to make 53.6% of their shots resulting in 84.4 Points-Per-Game. Pepperdine allows their opponents to nail 48.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 362nd in the nation. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 60.4% away from home ranks 362nd in the country. The Wave have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. They should be able to generate offense against the Dons tonight by getting to the free-throw line. Pepperdine ranks second in the West Coast Conference in getting to the charity stripe — and San Francisco ranks 295th in the nation and ninth in the West Coast Conference in putting their opponents on the line. The Wave have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has played 6 straight Overs at home after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dons are one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 19th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. Led by 6’9 Jonathan Mogbo, they should have their way inside against the weak interior defense of the Wave as they rank eighth in the nation by making 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. After playing their last two games on the road, San Francisco returns home where they make 52.1% of their shots resulting in 84.7 PPG. They also rank 50th in the nation by nailing a healthy 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco won the first meeting between these two teams by an 80-74 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 8th. Pepperdine has played 21 of their opportunities for revenge Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Jets v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (25) and the Chicago Blackhawks (26). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (34-15-5) has won four of their last five games after their 6-3 victory against Minnesota on Tuesday. Chicago (15-39-3) has lost two games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after a 3-1 loss against Philadelphia on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets lead the NHL in goals allowed when playing at five-on-five full strength. It all starts with goalie Conner Hellebuyck who is on pace to win another Vezina Trophy. He has a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 40 games — and he has a 2.21 GAA and a .927 save percentage in five starts this month. Winnipeg has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a win by three or more goals. They have also played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a win where they scored more than five goals. The Jets have scored three or more goals in three straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. Winnipeg goes back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or lower. They have also played 10 straight Unders against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Furthermore, the Jets hold Central Division rivals to only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game. Chicago is last in the NHL by scoring just 2.07 Goals-Per-Game. They only have two players who have generated 30 or more points — and just four of their players have 20 or more points on the season. In their last five games, they are scoring only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they are scoring just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game against division rivals. The Blackhawks have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They have also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have lost their last two games by multiple goals, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row by two or more goals. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or lower. And while the Jets are outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game, Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. Petr Mrazek is their confirmed goaltender tonight — and he has been very good when playing at home where he has a 2.47 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 20 starts.
FINAL TAKE: There have been only ten combined goals in the previous three meetings between these Central Division rivals this season. Winnipeg won the last meeting between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 11th — and the Blackhawks have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (25) and the Chicago Blackhawks (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-24 |
NC-Greensboro v. Wofford OVER 139 |
Top |
58-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (18-8) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 76-61 win at The Citadel as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Wofford (15-11) has won two in a row and three of their last four contests after their 73-60 upset win at Mercer as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held the Bulldogs to just 39.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But UNC-Greensboro remains a below-average defensive team — they rank seventh in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But what this team does well is shoot 3s — they rank eighth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, in their last ten contests, they are nailing 42.3% of their 3-pointers, ranking third in the country. The Spartans have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 26 of their last 39 games on the road Over the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Their game against The Citadel finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are making 37.9% of their 3-pointers to help them score 72.1 Points-Per-Game. UNC-Greensboro has played 28 of their last 42 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Wofford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Terriers have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Wofford converted 10 of their 24 (41.7%) of their shots from behind the arc against the Bears on the heels of nailing 11 of their 26 (42.3%) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. And while the Terriers have not allowed more than 64 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. Despite these recent results, Wofford is not a great defensive team — they rank eighth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even worse for this matchup, they rank 329th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and conference rivals are nailing 37.5% of their 3s. UNC-Greensboro makes 10 shots from distance per game from 25 shots from behind the arc on average. The Terriers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more 3s per game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against opponents who make eight or more shots from behind the arc per game. Wofford is a good shooting team as well — they rank 38th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They return home where they are making 50.1% of their shots including 37.9% of their 3s resulting in 82.5 PPG. The Terriers have played 15 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans won the first meeting between these two teams by an 82-59 score as a 6-point home favorite back on January 20th — and Wofford has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-16-24 |
Siena v. St. Peter's UNDER 128.5 |
Top |
53-75 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). THE SITUATION: Siena (4-20) snapped their seven-game losing streak in a 68-63 victory at Manhattan as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Saint Peter’s (11-11) has lost four games in a row after their 64-62 loss to Fairfield as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only made 41.5% of their shots against the Jaspers — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last four games. They had not scored more than 61 points in their previous six games — and they only topped 52 points in five of those six contests. Siena is one of the worst-scoring teams in the country. They rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 353rd of the 362 teams in Division I with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. To make matters worse, they turn the ball over in 24.4% of their possessions, ranking second to last in the nation — so they do not even get a shot off in one of every four possessions. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while their game with Manhattan finished far below the 139.5 point total, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Siena stays on the road where they are only making 41.9% of their shots and 21.9% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points including five of these last six circumstances. Saint Peter’s made 41.8% of their shots against the Stags last week which was their best shooting performance in their last six contests — they had not made more than 38.3% of their shots in their previous five games. The Peacocks rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 355th with an effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. But this team can play defense — they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking second in that metric in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Critical in this matchup, they rank 24th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponents’ possessions — so Siena is likely to struggle to score much more than even 50 points in this one. Saint Peter’s has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have outshot their last two opponents by 11 and 14 attempts — and they played 19 of their last 21 games Under the Total after attempting at least 10 more shots from the field than their opponent in two straight games. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. Uncharacteristically, they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots from the field — but now they stay at home where they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while limiting their guests to only 63.7 PPG. But the Peacocks’ offense is even worse at home where they rank 359th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their 42.0% effective field goal percentage. Saint Peter’s makes only 37.1% of their shots including 29.9% of their 3-pointers when playing at home resulting in just 65.2 PPG. The Peacocks have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints average 67.0 adjusted possessions per game which is below the 67.7 national average — and the 18.6 seconds per possession that average ranks 307th in the nation. The Peacocks rank 341st in the nation in both their 63.8 adjusted possessions per game and the 19.4 seconds per possession they average. These two teams played on January 28th when Saint Peter’s won by a 63-52 score as a 10-point favorite — and Siena has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-15-24 |
Idaho State v. Eastern Washington OVER 144.5 |
Top |
82-88 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (11-14) has won three games in a row after their 68-65 victory as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Eastern Washington (16-8) has won three in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests after their 87-79 loss to Idaho as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — and they rank 19th in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. They should pour on the points tonight against a Bengals defense that ranks 273rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 332nd in the nation. Eastern Washington has scored 78 or more points in three straight games along with 177 combined points in their last two contests. The Eagles have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. They stay at home where they make 55.0% of their shots including 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 89.7 Points-Per-Game. Eastern Washington has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Idaho State has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. The Bengals had covered the point spread in their four previous contests — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Idaho State goes back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in February. They have also played 21 of their last 27 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Bengals have also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played four of their five games this season.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Eastern Washington’s 79-67 win on the road as a 5.5-point favorite on January 20th — and Idaho State has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-11-24 |
49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-25 |
Win
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100 |
164 h 12 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams. They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT: I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.
BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).
Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).
Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.
BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:
(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.
(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-24 |
Kennesaw State v. Lipscomb OVER 169.5 |
Top |
95-101 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
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At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). THE SITUATION: Kennesaw State (13-11) has lost five games in a row after their 85-69 loss at Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Lipscomb (15-10) has won two games in a row after their 90-88 win against Queens University as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls scored their fewest points in 22 contests in their loss on Thursday. Kennesaw State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss against an Atlantic Sun rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Owls rank 320th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have given up at least 85 points in five straight games. Kennesaw State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 81.5 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing their opponents to make 48.0% of their shots including 36.8% of their 3-pointers away from home which is resulting in 86.1 Points-Per-Game. Kennesaw State has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Lipscomb has scored 81 or more points in seven of their last nine games after nailing 52.2% of their shots on Thursday — and that was the fifth time in their last seven games that have shot 51.7% or better from the field. But the Bisons allowed the Royals to shoot 50% from the field as well which was the fifth time in their last seven games where their opponent shot 50% or better. In their last five games, their opponents are making 50.3% of their shots resulting in 81.4 PPG. Lipscomb has played 7 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after playing at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. On their home court, the Bisons are making 54.8% of their shots and 42.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.9 PPG. But they are giving up 77.1 PPG when playing at home where they rank 358th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Lipscomb has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is approaching the 170 mark for good reasons — both of these teams struggled to play defense while Kennesaw State plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Owls lead the nation by only averaging 14.0 seconds per possession. They rank sixth in the nation with 73.9 adjusted average possessions per game — and that mark rises to 76.3 adjusted possessions per game when away from home, ranking second in the nation. Lipscomb plays at above-average pace as well — so they will be happy to accommodate the fast pace given how good they are on offense. The Bisons rank 62nd in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession. They rank 108th in the nation with 69.0 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 70.6 adjusted possessions per game when they are playing at home. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-30-24 |
Blue Jackets v. Blues OVER 6.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (61) and the St. Louis Blues (62). THE SITUATION: Columbus (15-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss at Seattle on Sunday. St. Louis (26-20-2) has won five games in a row after their 4-3 victory against Los Angeles on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues have scored four goals in four straight games — but they have also conceded three goals in each of their last four games during their current winning streak. Since Drew Bannister took over for Craig Berube as head coach on December 13th, St, Louis has scored 2.95 Goals-Per-Game in those 19 games which is right at their 2.9 Goals-Per-Game average for the season. But they are surrounding 4.0 Goals-Per-Game since Bannister took over which is well above their 3.2 Goals-Per-Game average for the season. The Blues have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by one goal. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored four or more goals. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in four or more games in a row. Goalie Jordan Binnington has played better lately — but he has still allowed three goals in each of his last two starts. For the season, he still owns a 2.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .907 save percentage. Columbus has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. The Blue Jackets have surrendered nine combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Elvis Merkilins will be between the pipes for them tonight — he has a 3.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .867 save percentage in his four starts this month. In his 13 starts on the road, he has a 3.73 GAA and a .889 save percentage. Columbus has played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games against teams from the Western Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Blues have seen seven or more combined goals scored in five of six and seven of their last nine games — and the Blue Jackets have seen seven or more combined goals in four of their last seven games. Columbus won the last meeting between these two teams on December 8th — and St. Louis has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (61) and the St. Louis Blues (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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