At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (40-29) has won eight of their last nine games after their 6-2 victory in the opening game of this series on Friday. Los Angeles (41-28) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have now scored 29 combined runs in their last four games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have played 45 of their last 63 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog including 12 of those 16 games this season. Additionally, they have played 28 of their last 34 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range including nine of those 10 games this season. They have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams winning 54-62% of their games. They have also played 22 of their last 30 road games Over the Total against fellow NL West opponents including all four of these games this season. Roupp gets the ball looking to build on his 4-4 record along with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 13 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.79 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 3.50 — so the likely only question is exactly how much he is overachieving right now. He has a great curveball — but his arsenal lacks a complementary pitch and relying on the curve can be hit-or-miss. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts — but in his eight starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.02 ERA along with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .258. He faces this Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers this season — and they continue to lead MLB in those categories since May 1st. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 22 of their last 34 games at home Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 18 of their last 27 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total at home when priced in the -151 to -200 range including six of those eight games this season. They counter with Kershaw who has a 1-0 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in five starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not paint an optimistic picture with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.80 and 4.44 moving forward. His xERA also sits at 4.67 based on his 2025 numbers. In his two starts at home this season, he has been rocked for an 8.31 ERA along with a 1.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306 as compared to his 1.50 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when the southpaw gad a 3.86 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and a .262 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road but a 5.27 ERA along with a 1.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .345 in three starts at home.

FINAL TAKE: Kershaw faces a Giants team that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (13) and the Edmonton Oilers (14) in Game Two of the Stanley Cup finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (59-36-5) has lost two of their last three games after dropping the opening game of the Stanley Cup finals by a 4-3 score in overtime on Wednesday. Edmonton (61-33-5) has won five games in a row and 13 of their last 15 contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Five combined goals were scored in the first 23:17 minutes of the game including one goal from a Panthers power play that was triggered by a delay of game penalty resulting from a failed Oilers challenge of the previous Florida goal. I appreciate that only one goal was scored between these two teams from that early moment in the second period through the 19:29 mark in the first overtime session when Leon Draisaitl scored the game-winner on a power play. But I do not think the tone of this series will suddenly embrace the second half of Game One. Both of these teams are rested and full of energy which will help them execute their aggressive forechecking games — and this style of play tends to either generate scoring chances or make themselves vulnerable to counter-attacks the other way. These two teams have played 8 of their last 12 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games in Edmonton Over the Total. The Oilers are an offensive machine right now. They have scored 20 combined goals in their last four games with at least four goals in each of those contests. They are getting balanced scoring with now 20 players with at least one goal in the postseason after defenseman Mattias Eckholm got in on the action in the third period to tie the score at 3-3. They have eight players with five or more goals. They entered this series leading all teams in the playoffs by scoring 4.06 Goals-Per-Game — and they came off scoring on 38% of their power play chances against the Hurricanes. At home, Edmonton scored 4.71 Goals-Per-Game in the first three rounds of the playoffs while converting on 56.3% of their power play chances. The Oilers have now played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total against teams who are winning 51-60% of their games. They have also played 5 straight home games Over the Total in the Stanley Cup Finals going back to last season. But they surrendered 10 combined goals in the Game Twos against Los Angeles and Vegas this postseason before recording a 3-0 win at Dallas in Game Two of the Western Conference finals. Stuart Skinner has been feast or famine in these playoffs — as he was last season. In his last two games, he has a .878 save percentage. He has two shutouts in Edmonton’s last two losses in the postseason — but in his last five starts off a win in these playoffs, he has allowed 13 goals with a .906 save percentage. The season-ending injury to defenseman Zach Hyman certainly does not help matters. The Oilers have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. They have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Florida has now played 13 of their 18 playoff games this postseason Over the Total. The Florida offense is operating at a high level as well — especially on the road where they entered this series scoring 4.80 Goals-Per-Game in their previous ten road games this postseason. They converted on 42.9% of their power play opportunities in those ten road games. The Panthers have 19 different players who have scored goals in these playoffs — and they have 10 players with at least 11 points. Florida has played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total in the Stanley Cup finals. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been up-and-down in this postseason as well. In his last two games, he has allowed seven goals and has a .899 save percentage in those games. In his last five playoff games this postseason following a loss, he has allowed 16 goals while posting a .886 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* National Hockey League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (13) and the Edmonton Oilers (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (555) and the Indiana Pacers (556) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: New York (61-38) has won two of the last three games in this series after their 111-94 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Indiana (60-36) still leads this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Knicks’ head coach Tom Thibodeau initially thought it would be a good idea to embrace the Pacers' fast pace and run up-and-down the court with them in this series. They lost Game One in overtime by a 138-135 score. But after dropping the first two games at home in this series, Thibodeau has finally come around to the notion that he needs the Knicks cannot simply try to outscore Indiana to win this series but that his team will have to do some things on defense. He expanded his rotation by getting Delon Wright and Landry Shamet into the mix — they both have played at least 20 combined minutes in the last three contests after neither played in Game Two and Wright was on the court for just 26 seconds in Game One. Wright and Shamet are both solid contributors on the defensive end of the floor who do not offer much offensively. But Thibodeau needs them out there to not exhaust his top-seven man rotation — and he is desperate for defensive help with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns on the court together since they were getting torched with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 150.0 when playing together in the first two games of this series. Thibodeau also inserted Mitchell Robinson in the starting lineup for Josh Hart in Game Three to switch the rotations up to get more defense on the court when Brunson and Towns are playing together. The defensive adjustments continued in Game Five with the Knicks (finally) picking up on Tyrese Haliburton closer to half court to offer more harassment against him and coax him to pass the rock. Haliburton only took seven shots on Thursday with just two of them coming from behind the arc. New York is also more aggressively defending Haliburton after made shots on the offensive end of the court to stop Indiana from responding quickly by pushing the ball up the court. The Knicks held the Pacers to 40.5% shooting and just a 33.3% mark from behind the arc as they continue to find schematic answers for what Indiana wants to do with the ball in their hands. And Thibodeau seems to appreciate that a slower pace better serves his team’s interests. New York has held Indiana to 100 and 94 points in two of the last three games in this series — and two of the last three games have seen just 205 and 206 combined points scored. The Under is 3-1 in the last 4 games in this series. Thibodeau’s teams have played 8 of their 13 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series including three of the four games as head coach of the Knicks. New York made 49.4% of their shots on Thursday which was their best shooting effort since Game One of this series. But don’t underestimate this Pacers defense that ranked ninth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since January 1st through the end of the regular season. Haliburton should play better after his off-night. But Aaron Nesmith playing through an ankle injury may continue to be limited offensively after missing seven of his eighth shots from the field in Game Five. Indiana has played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when playing a team winning 60-70% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: In the last 57 games in the NBA Conference Finals with the Total set at 216.5 or higher, 34 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (555) and the Indiana Pacers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Inter Milan (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Inter Milan reached the finals of the UEFA Champions League with a 4-3 victory against Barcelona in extra time on May 6th which pulled out a 7-6 win in the aggregate score. Paris Saint-Germain reached the finals with their 2-1 win at home against Arsenal on May 7th which secured their 3-1 aggregate score victory. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Inter Milan is unbeaten in their last six matches after a 2-0 win at Como to close out their Serie A competition last Friday. The Nerazzurri are a defense-first team with a great backline led by Benjamin Pavard and Alessandro Bastoni. They also have an outstanding goalkeeper in Yann Somomer who had +1.44 Goals Saved Above Expectation in their second-leg match against Barcelona. His .828 save percentage in Champions League matches in 2024-25 was the best for all keepers who played at least eight matches. Inter Milan did engage in some high-scoring matches in the Knockout Stages of the Champions League — but that may speak more to the aggressive natures of Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals of this tournament. The Nerazzurri had eight clean sheets in their first nine matches in the Champions League this year before the second leg of their Round of 16 contest against Feyenoord. On the road, they have resisted clean sheets in three of their last six matches in the Championship League. And while they have scored at least two goals in their last three Championship League matches on the road, they had previously not scored more than one goal away from home in five straight Championship League contests. In their last six contests in Serie A, Inter Milan has registered only 9.55 expected goals. Paris Saint-Germain has won four games in a row across all competitions after their 3-0 victory against Reims in the Coupe de France last Saturday. In their last six matches in Ligue 1 play, les Parisiens have only surrendered 5.55 expected goals. They led the French top flight by only giving up 35 goals and 36.39 expected goals. In their eight contests in the Champions League Knockout Stage matches this year, PSG registered four clean sheets. They also boast one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma. PSG scored only one goal in three of their last five road matches in the Champions League.

FINAL TAKE: Champions League finals tend to be cagey affairs with the match being played on neutral grounds under intense pressure. Given Inter Milan’s defensive counter-attacking tactics, this match will probably open as a grinder. PSG presses, but they do not want to fall behind against this veteran squad. The last six championship contests in the Champions League have seen less than 2.5 goals. Look for that trend to continue in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Inter Milan (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (550) in Game Five of the Western Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (78-19) has won four of their last five games after their 128-126 victory on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (58-38) trails in this series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder nailed 50.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests. They also made 16 of their 37 (43%) shots from behind the arc. Oklahoma City has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less including seven of those 10 games this season. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow Northwest Division rival including five of those six games played at home. Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last 16 contests by allowing the Thunder to make 50.5% of their shots. These two teams have played the last three games in this series Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row including seven of those nine games this season. They have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row including four of those five games this season. Minnesota shot 57.3% and 51.2% in their two games at home in this series — and they nailed 18 of their 41 shots (44%) from behind the arc in Game Four. But on the road in Game One and Two of this series, the Timberwolves only made 34.9% and 41.4% of their shots from the field. The Thunder should certainly play better on defense back at home where they are holding their opponents to 43.4% shooting including a 34.2% clip from behind the arc which has resulted in just 106.3 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their 7 road games in the postseason Under the Total. They have also played 9 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 4 playoff games when facing elimination, they have played 3 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge including nine of those 14 games this season. After three straight Overs in this series and a Game Four when both teams shot 50% or better from the field and 40% or better from behind the arc, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA  Conference Finals Total of the Year with  Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (63) and the Florida Panthers (64) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Carolina (55-34-6) has dug themselves a 0-3 hole in this series after their 6-2 loss on the road against the Panthers on Saturday. Florida (58-35-4) has the opportunity to sweep this series tonight having won seven of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have been overmatched physically in this series — and they have only scored four combined goals in the three games in this series. They have been competitive for much of the series before giving up goals that seemed to open up the proverbial floodgates. Game Three was tied going into the third period before The Panthers scored five straight goals to put the game away. Head coach Rob Brind’Amour probably made an ill-advised move by shaking things up by benching goaltender Frederik Andersen for Pyotr Kochetkov for Game Three. Granted, one of the reasons I was high on backing Florida in Game Three was the subpar play they were getting from Andersen in this series. But Kochetkov has shown little to suggest he could succeed in these circumstances — so his surprise start on Saturday was a development that I could even entertain given how juicy it would be. Andersen will certainly be back between the pipes for Game Four. I suspect he plays his best game of the series (and I am not going to be surprised if the Hurricanes break their 14-game losing streak in the Eastern Conference finals. Andersen posted a 1.19 Goals-Against Average with a .937 save percentage in the second round of the playoffs against Washington — and he enjoyed a 1.36 GAA and a .937 save percentage before this series started. The Hurricanes have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. They have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Florida has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total at home after a win at home by three or more goals. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after scoring six or more goals in their last game. The Panthers only generated 3.32 expected goals in Game Three — it was Kochetkov’s -2.68 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark mostly coming in that disastrous third period. Sergei Bobrovsky has fully become his alter-ego “Playoff Bob” where he plays at a very high level. In his last six games, he has allowed only seven combined goals with a .950 save percentage. Florida has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference finals.

FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three or more goals including six of those nine games played at home. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (63) and the Florida Panthers (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508) in Game Six of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (74-17) has won three of their last four games after their 112-105 win at home against the Nuggets as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver (56-37) looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-2 in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder lead the NBA in the regular season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.6 — and they have been even better in the postseason with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.1. They are holding their playoff opponents to 40.8% shooting which has resulted in just 103.6 Points-Per-Game. But Oklahoma City is scoring -4.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in the postseason — and that still accounts for two outlier performances when they scored 131 points in their opening game against Memphis last round and Game Two in this series against Denver when they scored 149 points. Like with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics, these 3-point-reliant teams are seeing their efficiency from behind the arc decline in the postseason. While the Thunder made 36.7% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, they are only making 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a win against a fellow Northwest Division opponent. Furthermore, the Thunder have played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored by six points or less. And in their last 10 road games against teams winning 60-70% of their games, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. The Nuggets played their worst defensive game in the last three games in this series by allowing Oklahoma City to make 50% of their shots. After shooting 50% from the field in the regular season, Denver is making only 45.2% of their shots in the playoffs which is resulting in 107.4 PPG which is -11.8 PPG below their average in the regular season. But they are also surrendering -5.1 PPG in the postseason while playing at a slower pace. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to a divisional rival. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams winning 70% or more of their games. Additionally, Denver has played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total in the postseason — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games in the second round of the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 12 of their last 18 playoff games Under the Total including seven of those nine games played on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in the second round of the playoffs. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578) in Game Four of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (55-35) has won five of their last six games after their 102-97 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Golden State (54-39) has lost the last two games of this series to fall behind by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Minnesota continues to play outstanding defense in the postseason as they held the Warriors to just 43.2% shooting on Saturday. They are holding their opponents to the playoffs to just 43.3% shooting which is resulting in 98.9 Points-Per-Game. After ranking sixth in the NBA in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they are third in that metric in the postseason while surrendering -4.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. But the Timberwolves are making only 44.3% of their shots in the playoffs which is resulting in only 105.5 PPG. Minnesota has played all 4 of their games in the postseason Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days (Minnesota closed out their first-round series with the Lakers on April 30th). Golden State only managed 97 points despite getting 33 points from Jimmy Butler and a surprising 30 points from Jonathan Kuminga. Frankly, they were not a dynamic scoring team even with Stephen Curry leading the way. In their two games since his hamstring injury in Game One, the Warriors have posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 100.0. For comparison's sake, Washington was last in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that number was 105.8. With Butler on the court in this series, they are registering an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 104.7 — below the Wizards in the regular season. The loss of Curry is devastating — the Warriors had an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 105.0 in the regular season when he was off the court which was -13.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when he was on the court. But on the other hand, Golden State had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.1 in the regular season when Curry was off the court which was -7.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when he was on the court. In their last five games in the playoffs, the Warriors are holding their opponents to 43.9% shooting which is resulting in 102.2 PPG. But they are only making 43.0% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in just 99.8 PPG. Golden State has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game including seven of those 11 games played at home. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: In the 19 playoff games under head coach Steve Kerr when Golden State was trailing in the series, they have played 13 of those games Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (577) and the Golden State Warriors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (69) and the Edmonton Oilers (70) in Game Three of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (54-25-11) has lost the first two games of this series after their 5-4 loss in overtime on Thursday. Edmonton (54-31-5) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights are in this predicament because they are simply not getting good goaltending from Adin Hill. In Game Two, he allowed five goals on 37 shots — and he posted a -1.52 Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) mark. In Game One, he allowed four goals on 28 shots with a substandard -1.52 GSAx clip. He is playing far below what the analytics indicate is mid-tier goaltending. Hill ranks 20th of the 26 goaltenders to appear in a postseason game this year by averaging -0.62 GSAx per 60 minutes. In his eight playoff games this postseason, he has a 3.16 Goals-Against-Average and a .874 save percentage. I simply do not think the form he was in during the Golden Knights Stanley Cup run two years ago is suddenly going to reappear. He was more effective at home during the regular season with a 2.40 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 28 games — but in his 22 games on the road, he had a 2.52 GAA and a .902 save percentage. The Vegas defense takes a hit tonight due to the injury of defenseman Brayden McNabb. But their scoring attack does get their leading scorer, Pavel Dorofeyov, who scored 36 goals in the regular season. Even without Dorofeyov in the last four games, they have scored at least three goals in four of their last five games. They will hit the ice desperate to avoid a 3-0 deficit. The Golden Knights have played 14 of their last 22 road games Over the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games. Edmonton has played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after winning on the road in their last game including seven of those last 10 occasions. They have not been getting great goaltending either from Calvin Pickard — and he has been declared out due to the injury he suffered late in Game Two. Stuart Skinner will be between the pipes again tonight after getting benched in Game Two of their previous series against the Los Angeles Kings. Frankly, Skinner was a disaster by allowing 11 goals in those first two games. He posted a 6.11 GAA and a .810 save percentage before getting benched — and he had -4.7 GSAx in those two games. He ranks second to last in the postseason with a -2.61 GSAx per 60-minute mark. In the regular season, he was mediocre at best with a 2.81 GAA and a .896 save percentage. Not having defenseman Mattias Ekholm is not helping the Oilers' cause in suppressing goals. But the Edmonton offense is clicking as they have scored at least four goals in five of their last six games. Even better, they are getting production from all four of their lines. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were only involved in the overtime goal in Game Two. The Oilers have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 5 straight Overs in the third game of a best-of-seven series. Head coach Bruce Cassidy’s teams in his coaching career have played 13 of their 21 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the playoff series including three of those four games since taking over the Golden Knights’ job. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (69) and the Edmonton Oilers (70). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (54-33) extended this series to a sixth game with their 131-116 victory at home against the Warriors as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (52-36) had won two games in a row but still can close things out given their 3-2 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After shooting only 44.3%  and scoring 101.8 Points-Per-Game in the first four games of this series, the Rockets’ offense exploded with a 55.1% shooting clip on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They have only enjoyed a better shooting percentage five times this season — and they have scored more than 131 points just seven times this season. They nailed 13 of their 30 shots from behind the arc — and that 43% shooting slip from 3-point range was well above their 35.4% clip with 3-pointers this season. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods. As it is, Houston has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after scoring 111 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rockets go back on the road, where they have played 12 of their last 20 games under the total against teams that have won 51-60% of their games. Head coach Ime Udoka has seen his teams play 17 of their 29 games in the postseason finish Under the Total including four of their five games when facing elimination in the series. The 131 points that Golden State surrendered is tied for the fourth most points they have given up all season. They have only let five opponents shoot better than 55.1% from the field all season. Head coach Steve Kerr should tighten things up on defense tonight. After the All-Star break, his team ranked third in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to close out the regular season. The Warriors have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Additionally, Golden State has played 13 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-70% of their games. And while the Rockets outrebound their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Warriors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG. Despite the Over on Wednesday, these two teams have played 11 of their last 17 meetings Under the Total including five of the last seven games played on Golden State’s home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 126 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where they allowed their opponent to make 52.4% or more of their shots from the field. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (579) and the Miami Heat (580) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (67-18) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series with their 124-87 win against the Heat as a 5-point road favorite on Saturday. Miami (39-48) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. Cleveland now attempts to close out this series on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in April including four straight games this month. They have also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the opening round of the playoffs including five of those last six games on the road. And in their last 4 games on the road when leading in a playoff series, they have played 3 of those games Under the Total. Miami played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Cavs to make 53.5% of their shots. The Heat should play better on defense tonight — but they just lack options when it comes to the other end of the court. Miami is scoring only 99.7 Points-Per-Game in this series. The Heat have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games at home when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5. point range. Miami has also played 4 straight Unders at home in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (579) and the Miami Heat (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 p.m. ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (555) and the Milwaukee Bucks (556) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (52-32) has won nine of their last ten games after a 123-115 victory at home against the Bucks as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (49-36) had won eight games in a row before falling behind 0-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers shot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday to take the second game of this series. Indiana has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Now they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog from 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog in that range. Additionally, the Pacers have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee got Damian Lillard back on the court after he was out for a lengthy period of time with an injury — but he only converted 4 of 13 shots from the field and just 2 of his 8 shots from behind the arc en route to 14 points. He should play better tonight now that he has knocked some of the rust off. The Bucks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. As it is, they are nailing 50.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 122.8 Points-Per-Game. But they are also letting their last five opponents make 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 120.6 PPG. Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 32 home games Over the Total when favored. They have also played  21 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points including 14 of those 19 games played at home. They have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored by six points or less. And in their last 5 home games against teams winning 60-70% of their games, they have played 4 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 15 of their last 23 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (555) and the Milwaukee Bucks (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (545) and the Memphis Grizzlies (546) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (70-15) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 118-99 victory as a 14.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (49-37) has lost five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies managed to hold the Thunder to just 43.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. Their play on defense remains inconsistent since Tuomas Iiasalo took over as the interim head coach in late March. In the 13 games he has been the head coach, Memphis has surrendered at least 117 points eight times — and they have given up 131 or more points in four of those contests. Perhaps more importantly to get back into this series, the Grizzlies have to shoot better than the 42.9% they shot on Tuesday. That was an improvement over their 34.4% field goal percentage in Game One of this series. Returning home should help where they are making 49.0% of their shots which is resulting in 123.4 Points-Per-Game. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after losing on the road in their last game. They have played 4 straight Overs on their home court since Iiasalo took over — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, Memphis has played 22 of their last 32 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has played 14 of their last 23 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. The Thunder have played three straight Unders — but they have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row under head coach Mark Daigneault including 10 Unders in those last 13 situations. Oklahoma City is making 48.0% of their shots this season which is resulting in 120.1 PPG — and they have nailed 48.7% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 126.8 PPG. The Thunder have played 14 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when avenging a loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (545) and the Memphis Grizzlies (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (515) and the Houston Rockets (516) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-34) has won eight of their last 11 games after their 121-116 win against Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite in their Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday. Houston (52-30) has lost three games in a row after their 126-111 loss at home to Denver as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors rank seventh in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but since the All-Star break, they have risen to third in that metric thanks to the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. They have held their last five opponents to 46.0% shooting which has resulted in just 107.0 Points-Per-Game. This is Golden State’s fourth game since April 11th — and they have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when rested and playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when listed as an underdog of up to six points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Rockets outrebound their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Warriors have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who outrebound their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG including four of those five games played on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home after a straight-up win at home. This is just their fifth game in the last two days — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. The Rockets are an elite defensive team that imposes their will from a very physical style of play. Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Tari Eason are elite defensive talents. Houston ranks fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 10th in steals, 11th in deflections, and 13th in blocks. On their home court, they are limiting their guests to 44.9% shooting which is resulting in just 107.5 PPG. The Rockets have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams just played on April 6th in a game that had a playoff atmosphere since seeding in the Western Conference remained very much at stake. Houston pulled off a 106-96 upset victory as a 5-point underdog on the road — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (515) and the Houston Rockets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Los Angeles Lakers (508) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (49-33) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-105 victory against Utah as a 23-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (50-32) had won two games in a row before their 109-81 loss at Portland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by rim protector Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to fifth in that category when playing on the road. They also play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league by averaging only 97.95 possessions per game. With the week off while the Play-In Tournament took place, they will begin this series rested and ready. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 5 of their 7 games this month Under the Total. The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks last postseason — and head coach Chris Finch has had almost a year to reconsider how to defend against Doncic if given the opportunity again. Doncic torched the T-Wolves by scoring 32.4 Points-Per-Game while nailing 43.4% of the 10.6 shots from behind the arc he averaged in that series. But Minnesota should be in a better position to defend Doncic this year since the Lakers lack the size that Dallas had in that series. The Timberwolves should defend Doncic coming off the pick-and-roll better this time — and Gobert should have more free reign to protect the rim. Since joining the Lakers, Doncic is not attacking the rim as much as he did with the Mavericks — and his shooting percentage has dropped from 46.4% with Dallas this season to 43.8% with Los Angeles. The addition of Doncic has not made a significant impact on their efficiency on offense. Since the All-Star break, they are only scoring +0.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than their season average. Trading away Anthony Davis has contributed to the Lakers becoming a mostly jump-shooting team. They rank only 17th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home since the All-Star Break. Trading Davis for Doncic has not impacted Los Angeles' play on defense — they are surrendering -0.2. fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break when compared to their season-long Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. At home, the Lakers rank tied for ninth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. Los Angeles also plays at the 11th slowest pace in the NBA — so this should be a lower-scoring game.

FINAL TAKE: Only 213 combined points were scored in the last meeting between these two teams in a 111-102 victory for the Lakers at home at Crypto.com Arena. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Los Angeles Lakers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (577) and the Orlando Magic (578) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (40-42) has won three games in a row after their 117-105 upset victory against Orlando as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Orlando (41-41) saw their five-game winning streak snapped with that loss on the final day of the regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The line is telling us a lot for this game since it is just the third game all season for the Hawks when the Total was below the 220 mark. Since Quin Snyder took over as their head coach, Atlanta has only had 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s — and 4 of those games finished Under the Total. The Hawks are not a good defensive team — they allow their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots which is resulting in 119.3 Points-Per-Game that they are giving up. But much of their issues on defense is simply an issue of effort as their group prefers to try to win shootouts. Look for their effort and energy on defense to be better now that they are in the postseason — and they have been playing better on that end of the court lately. They have held their last five opponents to 46.2% shooting which has resulted in 115.4 PPG which is -3.9 fewer PPG than their season average. They allowed the Magic to make 45.5% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after pulling off an upset victory. Orlando has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing at home in their last game. They have also played all 5 of their games Under the Total after an upset loss to a fellow Southeast Division rival since Jamahl Mosely took over as their head coach. The Magic are an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank second in that metric since the beginning of March. They also lead the league in defensive rebounding and second in second-chance points allowed per 100 possessions. Orlando has played 20 of their last 33 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. The Hawks score 118.2 PPG — and the Magic have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams who score 116 or more PPG. Orlando has also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams who are giving up 116 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t want to read too much into Sunday’s game between these teams since nothing was at stake and both head coaches rested their key starters. But the Magic did allow Atlanta to make 53.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 17 games. I expect Mosley to use that effort to refocus the defensive commitment of his team tonight. In the 11 games in his tenure when Orlando was avenging an upset loss on the road, 9 of those games finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (577) and the Orlando Magic (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (569) and the Golden State Warriors (570). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-32) has won seven straight games after their 101-100 victory at Sacramento as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Golden State (48-33) has won two of their last three games after their 103-86 victory at Portland as a 15.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: On the final day of the NBA regular season, this is the contest that has the most at stake for both teams as the winner clinches a spot in the top six in the Western Conference playoffs and avoids the play-in tournament. The Clippers have raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles leads the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 15 games. They have not allowed more than 106 points in five of their last seven games — and four of those opponents did not score more than 100 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 105.8 Points-Per-Game. The Clippers have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Golden State leads the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since they picked up Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline. They have not allowed more than 106 points in four of their last five games as well as six of their last nine contests. They have held their last five opponents to 45.4% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG. The Warriors have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against who are winning 60-75% of their games including six of those nine games played at home. The Clippers have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (569) and the Golden State Warriors (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:50 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (701) and the Houston Cougars (679) in the National Championship Game of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida (35-4) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-73 victory against Auburn as a 2-point favorite in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Houston (34-4) has won 18 games in a row after their 70-67 upset victory against Duke in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We were on Duke against the Cougars on Saturday — and despite getting that call wrong, much of my concern about this Houston team played out as  I expected. As I wrote for that Report: “Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc.” Sure enough, the Cougars only made 13 of their 39 shots from inside the arc for a rough 33.3% shooting percentage. Houston ranks 292nd by making only 48.0% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark drops to a 46.1% clip on the road which ranks 283rd. They are scoring -2.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But the Cougars are one of head coach Kelvin Sampson’s best scoring teams because they lead the nation by nailing 39.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they nailed 10 of their 22 shots from behind the arc against the Blue Devils at a 45.5% clip. Can they come close to that tonight? The Gators rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. The other area where Houston dominated was on the offensive glass as they pulled down 18 offensive rebounds on a remarkable 46.2% of their missed shots — despite Duke’s significant size edge. Credit goes to box-out fundamentals this team has been taught —  but the Cougars once again are at a size disadvantage since the Gators have four players in their forward rotation that are taller than 6’8 which is how big Houston gets on their front line from their regulars. Florida ranks 133rd in the nation with their opponents rebounding 29.0% of their missed shots — but that number is reflective of head coach Todd Golden’s desire to play at a fast pace and get up-and-down in transition from their opponent's missed shots. Given what the Cougars did to Duke, Golden may have his team focus more on limiting second-chance opportunities. They limited Auburn to pulling down only 25% of their missed shots despite the Tigers ranking 50th in the nation in offensive rebounding (34.2%). In the SEC Tournament Championship Game, they held Tennessee to rebounding only 17.4% of their missed shots despite the Volunteers ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding (35.6%). Clearly, Florida can frustrate great offensive rebounding teams if they want to — but the choice to do it requires them to slow the pace of the game down. Houston’s scoring can dry up if their 3s are not falling and they are not getting second-chance looks. In their regular season loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in 11 of their games this season after only making 37.7% of their shots against Duke. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 38.0% clip which ranks 15th in the nation (still great, but no longer the best). To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble — and they were fortunate to get past the Blue Devils with some fortunate whistles late in the game. But Houston stole that game because they held Duke to only eight points in the final eight minutes of the game and just 39.6% shooting (and 67 points) despite the Blue Devils leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Cougars lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 80% or more of their games. Florida allowed the Tigers to make 43.9% of their shots which was the highest opponents’ field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Gators' offense does take a step back if they get stuck in a half-court slog. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 24th with their effective field goal percentage of 55.1% while ranking no higher in 29th in their 2-point/3-point shooting splits. The half-court offense does not create enough catch-and-shoot scoring opportunities which is critical when facing this Cougars defense. They only had 11 of those catch-and-shoot chances against Auburn and missed eight of those shots. But Florida’s half-court defense remains elite. They rank ninth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% while ranking in the top 22 in both 2-point/3-point defensive shooting splits. The Gators can get caught in slogs. There were only 64 possessions in their 64-44 loss to Tennessee on February 1st. South Carolina slowed them down in conference play as well in a 70-69 victory for Florida with only 65 mutual possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Sampson wants to slow this game down to a crawl — and I think he will win the tempo battle. The Cougars rank 350th by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging 61.7 possessions per game. The Gators hold their opponents to 40.1% shooting — and Houston has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting including eight of those 12 games played on the road. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (701) and the Houston Cougars (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (681) and the Auburn Tigers (682) in the Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida (34-4) has won ten straight games after their 84-79 victory against Texas Tech as a 7-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. Auburn (32-5) has won four games in a row after their 70-64 victory against Michigan State in their Elite Eight game in the Big Dance last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Gators only shot 43.9% from the field against the Red Raiders which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. That they still managed 84 points because head coach Todd Golden’s team emphasizes shot volume when they have the basketball. They rank 59th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions — and they rank fifth in the nation by pulling down 38.9% of their missed shots. Florida also plays at a very fast pace — they average 16.3 seconds per possession and their games average 69.8 possessions per game with those marks ranking 43rd and 59th in the nation. Overall, the Gators rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are scoring +4.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home or true road games. But when playing away from home, they are also surrendering +5.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home. Florida has played 14 of their last 22 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Over the Total when favored. The Tigers hold their opponents to 40.6% shooting — and the Gators have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. Auburn outrebounds their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Florida has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Gators are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 Points-Per-Game — and Florida has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including 12 of those 17 games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. Auburn held the Spartans to 34.4% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row including nine of those 13 games played on the road. On the road, they are scoring +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions — but they are also surrendering +5.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions in those games. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and Johni Broome claims he is 100% for this contest after injuring his wrist late in the game on Sunday. Florida takes 63 shots per game — and Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who generate 62 or more shots per game. The Tigers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their 13 games Over the Total on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em with Bruce Pearl as their head coach. And while the Gators are outscoring their opponents by +15.7 PPG, Auburn has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers want to avenge a 90-81 loss to the Gators playing at home as an 11-point favorite on February 8th — and they have played 12 of their 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss with Pearl as their head coach. 25* CBB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (681) and the Auburn Tigers (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (673) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (674) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (28-9) has won 16 of their last 17 games after their 80-73 upset victory against Loyola-Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the NIT on Tuesday. UC-Irvine (32-6) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 69-67 upset victory against North Texas a 1-point underdog in their semifinal match in this tournament on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Anteaters made 49.0% of their shots in their upset victory against the Mean Green which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. UC-Irvine ranks just 169th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and they are making only 45.4% of their shots on the season. The Anteaters have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 14 of their last 21 games on the road Under the Total against teams outside the Big West Conference. They are holding their opponents to -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road which is the 46th biggest drop off in the nation. In their six games played on a neutral court, they are holding their opponents to -6.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which is the 12th biggest drop in the nation. Led by 7’1 rim protector Bent Leuchten, UC-Irvine ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 14th in that metric when playing on the road. The Anteaters thrive with their half-court defense by ranking seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and they rank second in the nation by holding their opponents to a 42.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. This contest will be strength-versus-strength since Chattanooga is an outstanding pure-shooting defense that ranks 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% — and they rank ninth in the nation with a 57.9% mark inside the arc. Leuchten’s presence down low should frustrate much of what the Mocs want to do on offense. Chattanooga’s scoring attack is led by two small guards, Trey Bonham and Honor Hoff, who draw out defenders because they shoot a ton of 3s. This opens up space for Bash Wieland to freely slash to the basket — but Leuchten will be waiting for him tonight. The Mocs rank 44th in the nation by making 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc — but that mark drops to 34.9% when they are on the road which ranks 92nd in the nation. Chattanooga ranks 54th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do score -5.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 73rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and their net drop off in offensive efficiency is the 291st worst in the nation. But the Mocs so play better defense on the road. They rank 262nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall — but they improve to 154th in that category on the road by surrendering -11.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which is the fifth-best improvement in the nation. The Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +9.2 Points-Per-Game — and Chattanooga has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games in tournament settings Under the Total. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (673) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (511) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (512). THE SITUATION: Chicago (33-41) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 120-119 upset loss at home against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma City (62-13) has won nine games in a row after their 132-111 victory against Indiana as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls held the Mavericks to 46.5% shooting which is just below their 46.7% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season — but it was also the best defensive effort in that metric in their last five games. They rank 24th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Chicago is making 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 128.2 Points-Per-Game — that is +10.8 PPG above their season average. They rank fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in those last five contests. The Bulls have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 19 of their 31 games on the road this season Over the Total. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 14 games on the road Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They are making 48.7% of their shots at home which is resulting in 122.6 PPG. In their last five games, they are nailing 50.0% of their shots which is resulting in 124.4 PPG. Overall this season, they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Thunder have played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Furthermore, they have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Over the Total when favored by double-digits.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City won the last meeting between these two teams on October 26th by a 114-94 score on October 26th. The Bulls have played 12 of their last 19 games on the road Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (511) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (647) and the Houston Cougars (648) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (30-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 78-65 victory against Kentucky as a 4.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Houston (33-4) rides a 16-game winning streak after their 62-60 victory against Purdue as an 8-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tennessee allowed the Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in that game which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee is once again an elite defensive team that ranks third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They present a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they lead the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. That mark does decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers have an elite perimeter defense that ranks second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranks 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they are scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Boilermakers. That effort continues a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts may not be close to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. They remain the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They are holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting which is resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee has only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also has an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play (more on that below). The Volunteers rank 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number does speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stop the opponent’s offensive rebounding. but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston has played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they have played 13 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. But the money stat regards their opponent’s average length of possession since it tends to reflect their opponent’s frustration for settling for a bad shot. The Volunteers and Cougars rank 351st and 354th with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (647) and the Houston Cougars (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (637) and the Houston Cougars (638) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (24-11) has won three of their last four games after their 76-62 victory against McNeese State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston (32-4) rides a 15-game winning streak after their 81-76 victory against Gonzaga as a 5-point favorite on Saturday in their second-round game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars made 46.8% of their shots against the Bulldogs which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. More surprisingly, they saw Gonzaga make 50% of their shots against them which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 contests — and just the fourth time all season that an opponent made 50% or more of their shots against them. Houston remains the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank fourth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.0%. They rank fifth in the nation with their opponents making only 44.3% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank 23rd by holding their opponents to 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. They are holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting which is resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. On the road, they are surrendering -2.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. But they are also scoring -4.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Boilermakers are a tough matchup for the Cougars’ scoring attack. The teams that give Purdue trouble can pound them inside given their lack of size. The Boilermakers rank 341st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 56.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Houston does not have a regular rotation of players taller than 6’8 — and they rank 272nd in the nation by making only 48.8% of their shots inside the arc. On the road, they only make 47.2% of their 2-pointers which ranks 271st in the nation. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they lead the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. That mark does decline to a 37.7% clip when playing away from home, ranking 19th. Purdue has a very good perimeter defense that ranks 33rd in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.0% shooting from deep. The Cougars also crash the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play (more on that below). The Cougars have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when the total is set in the 130s including playing eight of those nine games played on the road. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Purdue has played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. Of concern in the Boilermakers’ win against McNeese State was that All-American point guard Braden Smith committed eight turnovers against the Cowboys’ pressure defense. He is turning the ball over in 18.5% of his touches. Now here comes a Houston defense that ranks 18th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They are as aggressive as any team in the country in trapping the ball-handler on ball screens with double-teams — and that will force Smith to execute at a high level in getting the ball to Trey Kaufman-Renn. Purdue does rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are scoring -6.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their 48.8% shooting percentage drops to 45.5% on the road which is resulting in 71.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season average. The biggest drop-off comes from their 3-point shooting. While they rank sixth in the nation by making 41.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, they only make 35.5% of their 3s on the road which ranks 66th in the nation. The Cougars make 45.7% of their shots — and the Boilermakers have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. They have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total against teams winning  80% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: This game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Purdue ranks 304th by averaging 18.8 seconds per possession — and they rank 299th with their games averaging 65.1 adjusted possessions. The Cougars rank 345th by averaging only 19.5 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (637) and the Houston Cougars (638). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (619) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (620) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kent State (24-11) has won five of their last six games after their 77-75 upset victory at Stanford as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Loyola-Chicago (24-11) has won five of their last six contests after their 77-76 upset victory at San Francisco as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Flashes allowed the Cardinal to make 45.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Kent State led the Mid-American Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Golden Flashes had not played since Tuesday of last week before Sunday’s game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. Kent State is an excellent offensive rebounding team — they rank 24th in the nation by pulling down 35.6% of their missed shots. Their second-chance opportunities reset the shot clock — and longer possessions are a great recipe for Unders. They also defend the perimeter by ranking 49th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.3% shooting from behind the arc — and the Ramblers led the Missouri Valley Conference by hitting 36.7% of their 3s. The Golden Flashes amp up their play on defense when playing on the where they hold their opponents to 39.4% shooting which is resulting in 65.9 Points-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to a whopping -14.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 16th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 24th by limiting their opponents to 47.2% shooting inside the arc — and they rise to seventh in the nation on the road with their opponents making just 29.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But they are only scoring 41.3% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 69.4 PPG. They rank 223rd in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -6.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions away from home. Kent State has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Loyola-Chicago makes 45.7% of their shots from the field — but the Golden Flashes have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. And while the Ramblers hold their opponents to 41.7% shooting, Kent State has played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage no higher than 42%. Loyola-Chicago has played 13 of their last 20 games at home Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Ramblers only made 40% of their shots on Sunday which continues a disturbing trend as they are only making 41.7% of their shots in their last five games. But they held the Dons to 37.5% shooting — and their last five opponents have made only 36.9% of their shots resulting in 64.6 PPG. Loyola-Chicago returns home where they are surrendering -3.5 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. The Ramblers have played 17 of their last 27 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 8 home games against teams winning 60-80% of their games, they have played 6 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Loyola-Chicago has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and the Golden Flashes have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the MAC. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (619) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Liberty Flames (801) and the Oregon Ducks (802) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Liberty (28-6) has won five games in a row after their 79-67 victory against Jacksonville State as a 5.5-point favorite in the Conference USA Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. Oregon (24-9) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 74-64 loss to Michigan State as a 6-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Flames nailed 60% of their shots against the Gamecocks to claim that title — and it was the fifth straight game where they made at least 50.9% of their shots. Liberty has made 55.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 83.4 Points-Per-Game. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They are second in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4% — and they rank 11th or better in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. What is striking about this Liberty squad is that their shooting numbers go up when playing away from home. They lead the nation on the road with a 59.8% effective field goal percentage. They rank third in the nation on the road by making 40.3% of their shots from behind the arc and 59.2% of their shots inside the arc respectively. While they rank 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency overall, they rise to a rank of 36th in that metric when playing on the road — and they are scoring +10.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Their 50.3% field goal percentage on the road is resulting in 75.5 PPG. On defense, the Flames rank 42nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with their opponents making 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in 62.9 PPG — but their last five opponents are scoring 69.6 PPG against them. Liberty surrenders +4.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Flames have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total in March. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral court, Liberty has played 6 of those games Over the Total. Oregon has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game. The Ducks rank 52nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with a generic style of play where they do not thrive in any one area — but they are above average in all the key categories. Head coach Dana Altman has a significant matchup advantage in this contest that he is likely to continually exploit. At 7’0, Nate Bittle is scoring more than 14 PPG — and he should be able to score at will against the Flames’ center Owen Aquino who is only 6’8. On the road, Oregon improves their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking to 40th in the nation while scoring +1.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They also surrender +1.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Ducks have played 4 straight Overs when the Total is set in the 130s. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: In Altman’s tenure at Oregon, the Ducks have played 22 of their 30 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games in the first round of a tournament Over the Total with Altman as their head coach — including 5 of their 7 Round of 64 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Liberty Flames (801) and the Oregon Ducks (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Furman Paladins (719) and the North Texas Mean Green (720) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Furman (25-9) had won six games in a row before their 92-85 loss against Wofford as a 1-point favorite in the Southern Conference Tournament on March 10th. North Texas (24-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 66-56 loss to UAB as a 2.5-point favorite in the American Athletic Conference Tournament.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Paladins have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including 5 of their 7 games this season. They travel to Denton for this opening round game — and they rank 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road where they are surrendering +2.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They are also scoring +5.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road based on very good shooting. They rank 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage on the road with a 55.6% mark. They rank in the top 43 on the road in both 2-point and 3-point shooting including a rank of 26th by making 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Furman has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog including six of those nine games this season. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. The Paladins come into this game hot with their shooting — they have made 50.4% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 84.6 Points-Per-Game. Furman has played 7 straight Overs in March going back to last season. And while the Mean Green holds their opponents to 41.0% shooting, the Paladins have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42%. North Texas only made 32.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games. The Mean Green has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They earned the right to host this game with a two-seed in the NIT. They are scoring 48.0% on their home court which has resulted in 71.8 PPG — and they are scoring +7.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions on their home court. While they rank 47th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they plummet to 130th in that metric when playing on their home court — and they are surrendering +9.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home. North Texas has played 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 130s. They have played 7 of 10 their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Paladins make 45.7% of their shots, the Mean Green has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas has played 6 straight Overs at home when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB NIT First Round Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Furman Paladins (719) and the North Texas Mean Green (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (671) and the San Diego State Aztecs (672) in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (22-13) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 74-71 loss against Duke in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament as a 7-point underdog on Friday. San Diego State (21-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 62-52 loss to Boise State as a 1.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Diego State is a very good defensive team — but this game should go Over the Total for two primary reasons: North Carolina plays at a very fast pace and they can’t play defense. The Tar Heels average 70.4 adjusted possessions per game while averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — those marks rank 34th and 40th in the nation. And they are an elite offensive team that is playing its best basketball on that end of the court right now. They score 80.8 Points-Per-Game and rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 12th in the metric in their last ten games. In their last nine regular season games, they ranked ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage — they made 42.6% of their shots from behind the arc and 55.3% of their shots inside the arc. But in the last month of the regular season, North Carolina ranked 262nd in opponent effective field goal percentage with those foes making 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 338th in the nation. They also play the 20th-worst defense in terms of Points-Per-Possession against the ball handler coming off screens in the pick-and-roll. The Tar Heels rank 70th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they surrender +1.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Aztecs do hold their opponents to 37.8% shooting — but North Carolina has played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams outside the ACC including 18 of those 22 games played on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games this season against non-conference opponents Over the Total including six of those seven games played on the road. San Diego State mostly played teams in the Mountain West Conference that played at slow paces — only Fresno State and New Mexico averaged 69.2 or more possessions per game. In those four games, the Aztecs scored 75.5. PPG. They only made 38.3% of their shots in their loss to the Broncos which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including four of those five games played on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing to fellow Mountain West Conference opponents including all three of those games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. This Aztecs’ team is not as good defensively as some of head coach Brian Dutcher’s recent squads. They rank 290th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and I like Overs in games when a team will score their share of points when the clock is stopped. And while the national average for 3-point shot attempts per field goal attempt is 39.0%, they rank 354th in the nation with their opponents launching 47.3% of their shots from behind the arc. San Diego State’s strong interior defense may compel the Tar Heels to rely on their good outside shooting. The Aztecs also rank 347th when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.6% of their missed shots. They are surrendering +3.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But they are also scoring +2.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their good defenses under Dutcher, San Diego State has played 8 of their last 13 games in tournament play Over the Total. North Carolina has played 16 of their last 24 games on a neutral court Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. The Tar Heels have also played 6 of their last 9 games in the Big Dance Over the Total. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (671) and the San Diego State Aztecs (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (45) and the Minnesota Wild (46). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-22-7) has won five games in a row after their 1-0 victory against Nashville on Saturday. Minnesota (37-25-5) has lost four of their last five games after a 5-1 loss against St. Louis on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have now shut out two straight opponents — and they have only allowed one goal in their last three games. They are simply playing fantastic defense right now as they have held four of their last five opponents to one goal or less. They have held their last five opponents to 1.4 Goals-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a win including 12 of those 16 games on the road. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win at home including 6 of those 8 games on the road. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. They have played 6 of their 8 games this month Under the Total

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (635) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (636) in the Championship Game of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (28-5) has won six games in a row after their 96-78 victory against Cal-Poly as a 10.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. UC-San Diego (29-4) has won 14 games in a row after their 69-51 win against UC-Santa Barbara as an 11-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Anteaters nailed 55.7% of their shots last night which was actually their worst shooting effort in their last three games — but now they face a Tritons team that had held them to just 38.8% and 38.2% shooting in their two previous meetings this season. UC-Irvine has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest with seven of the eight games played on the road finished Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on the road for the second time in three days or less. The Anteaters rank just 152nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — so those 96 points last night were an outlier despite them playing at a fast pace. UC-Irvine is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank second in the country by holding their opponents to just 43.0% shooting inside the arc. They also rank fourth in the nation in defensive free throw rate. On the road, they improve their ranking to tenth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering -6.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road rather than at home. They rank third in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 44.3% shooting inside the arc — and they also rank eighth by limiting their opponents to pulling down 24.2% of their missed shots. UC-Irvine has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road. We were on UC-San Diego last night — and they rewarded us by holding the Gauchos to just 26.7% shooting in a 69-51 victory. The Tritons rank 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they led the Big West Conference in that metric in the regular season which was even better than the Anteaters’ mark. They held conference opponents to just 39.3% shooting — and they have held their last five opponents to 35.9% shooting which has resulted in only 59.4 Points-Per-Game. UC-San Diego combines this outstanding half-court defense with elite ball-hawking skills to limit their opponents’ scoring opportunities as they rank second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponents’ possessions — and they lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponents’ possessions when playing on the road. On the road, they are surrendering -2.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They also score -0.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Tritons have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when favored. UC-Irvine does make 45.8% of their shots — but UC-San Diego has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. The Tritons shoot 46.5% from the field while holding their opponents to 39.7% shooting overall this season. The Anteaters have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total against opponents who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting — and they have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total against teams who shoot 45% or better and hold their opponents to 42% or worse shooting.

FINAL TAKE: I mentioned above about UC-Irvine’s struggles to make baskets in their two previous games against UC-San Diego. The Tritons enjoyed an outlier shooting effort by making 53.7% of their baskets in an 85-67 victory against the Anteaters on February 8th — but they only made 31.1% of their shots in a 60-52 loss against them on January 11th. UC-San Diego ranks 271st in the nation by averaging only 65.7 possessions per game — and they have been successful in winning the pace battle against UC-Irvine who did not score than 67 points in either game. Lastly, the Tritons have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Big West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (635) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (811) and the Dayton Flyers (812) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Joseph’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games after their 75-70 victory against LaSalle as a 12.5.-favorite yesterday in this tournament. Dayton (22-9) has won four straight contests after their 79-76 upset victory at VCU as a 10-point underdog last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hawks only made 37.5% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 10 contests. For that matter, they held the Explorers to just 41.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. Saint Joseph’s has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They rank second in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Even after yesterday’s subpar shooting effort, they are still scoring 81.0 Points-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they are also giving up 73.0 PPG in that span. On the road, they are scoring +3.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home — but they are also surrendering +1.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions in those games. The Hawks have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 4 straight Overs when playing in March. They should find plenty of success scoring close to the basket against the Flyers. Saint Joseph’s ranks second in the Atlantic 10 by making 53.8% of their shots inside the arc. This is an area of vulnerability for Dayton — they rank 244th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 52.3% of their 2-point shots. The Flyers have been even worse in conference play with their A-10 rivals making 54.2% of their shots inside the arc against them, ranking 13th in the conference. Dayton has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow conference opponent. This is their second game since last Tuesday — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days including all five games Over the Total that were played on the road. The Flyers rank 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 18th in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 17th in the nation by making 37.8% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. They are scoring +7.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Dayton ranks 136th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to a ranking of 175th in that category when playing on the road. They are surrendering +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their interior defense is the main culprit as they are allowing their opponents to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road which ranks 316th in the nation. The Flyers have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played six of those seven games on the road Over the Total. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of those seven games played on the road. They have also played  15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Dayton won the lone meeting between these two teams back on January 24th by a 77-72 score — and Saint Joseph’s has played 9 of their last 10 revenge opportunities Over the Total. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (811) and the Dayton Flyers (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (631) and the Montana Grizzlies (632) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Idaho (14-18) has won two of their last three games after their 80-70 upset victory against Portland State as a 4-point underdog in their Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Montana (23-9) has won 12 of their last 13 games after their 74-65 victory against Northern Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vandals held the Vikings to just 37.5% shooting yesterday in what was their best defensive effort of the season. But Idaho has played 4 straight Overs on the road after pulling off an upset win in their last game. That was an outlier performance for a team that ranks 347th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they maintain that ranking when playing on the road. Their opponents are making 48.1% of their shots on the road this season which is resulting in 77.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are surrendering +4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The biggest problem is their interior defense as they rank 289th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. But they also are scoring +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 82nd in the nation on the road by making 35.2% of their 3-pointers — and the Grizzlies rank 344th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Idaho has played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Montana held the Lumberjacks to 38.7% shooting on Sunday which was their best defensive performance in their last three games. They still rank 256th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Grizzlies have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games away from home Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow Big Sky Conference rival. On the road, they are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots which results in 79.2 PPG. They drop to 278th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering +10.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. But they also make 49.0% of their shots on the road while ranking 12th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 55.3%. Montana ranks ninth in the nation on the road by making 57.1% of their shots inside the arc — and they also rank 26th in the nation on the road in getting to the free throw line (and I like investing in Overs when a team scores points when the clock is not running). They are making 50.8% of their shots in their last five games — and they are making 51.5% of their shots in conference plays. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Idaho wants to avenge a 72-67 loss on the road to Montana as a 5-point underdog on January 20th — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (631) and the Montana Grizzlies (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (757) and the Troy Trojans (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (15-19) has won four games in a row after their 61-56 upset victory against Appalachian State as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Troy (20-10) has won three games in a row after their 70-58 victory at Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Monarchs have stepped things up significantly on the defensive end of the court recently. They held the Mountaineers to 34.6% shooting last night. After allowing Marshall to shoot 57.7% from the field against them on February 25th, Old Dominion has not allowed their last four opponents to make more than 37.1% of their shots including in the last three days of this tournament. The Monarchs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. But Old Dominion can’t shoot. They have only made more than 40% of their shots once in their last six games. For the season, they rank 359th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. They only make 45.2% of their shots inside the arc and 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc — those marks rank 346th and 350th in the nation respectively. On the road, they are scoring -1.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home. They are giving up -5.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road as well. The Trojans hold their opponents to 41.0% shooting — and the Monarchs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42.0% shooting. Old Dominion has also all 6 of their games on a neutral court this season Under the Total. Troy has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The Trojans rank 34th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are surrendering -8.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Their interior defense is particularly tough on the road as they rank eighth in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 45.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. But Troy scores -10.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total. Troy does pound the offensive glass — they rank fourth in the nation by pulling down 39.0% of their missed shots and that mark rises to 40.0% in conference play. For that matter, Old Dominion ranks second in the Sun Belt by rebounding 36.6% of their missed shots. Contests between two good offensive rebounding teams help our Under since both teams are likely to extend their possession with second or more scoring chances — and that is a formula for fewer overall possessions in the game.

FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs have played 7 straight games Under the Total when the Total in set in the 130s — and four of these games were played away from home. The Trojans have played 6 straight Unders when playing on the road with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (757) and the Troy Trojans (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Long Beach State 49ers (785) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (786). THE SITUATION: Long Beach State (7-23) has lost 13 games in a row after their 70-60 loss at UC-Irvine as a 16.5-point underdog on Saturday. UC-San Diego (26-4) has won 11 games in a row after their 100-55 victory against CS-Fullerton as a 27-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tritons made 52.9% of their shots on Saturday — they are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games which is resulting in 85.2 Points-Per-Game. UC-San Diego has played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total after a win against a fellow Big West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing a game where they did not allow more than 55 points. The Tritons lead the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and Long Beach State ranks 350th in the nation by turning the ball all over in 21.8% of their possessions. That should lead to many easy-scoring opportunities for the Tritons. They are scoring +2.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. They rank second in the Big West by both making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc and by nailing 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, they are shooting 47.5% from the field when playing at home which is resulting in 85.0 Points-Per-Game. They are also given up +1.7 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — so UC-San Diego is not a team that seems a dramatic drop-off in their opponent's scoring when they are playing on their home court. The Tritons have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home — and they have 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. And while the 49ers are getting outscored by -6.7 PPG, UC-San Diego has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. Long Beach State has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a Big West rival — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Over the Total after a loss to a fellow conference opponent. They rank 321st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are giving up +2.0 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Their opponents are making 47.5% of their shots when they are on the road resulting in 76.1 PPG. One of their problems is that they rank 327th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 37.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They also rank 360th in the nation on the road with their opponents rebounding 39.5% of their missed shots. The 49ers are also scoring +2.0 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Long Beach State has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road. The Tritons make 47.0% of their shots and hold their opponents to 40.5% shooting — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who make 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no higher than 42% from the field.

FINAL TAKE: Long Beach State wants to avenge an 80-54 loss at home against the Tritons on January 16th — and they have played 6 of their last opportunities for revenge Over the Total. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Long Beach State 49ers (785) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (786). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacred Heart Pioneers (719) and the Manhattan Jaspers (720). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (14-15) has won three of their last four games after their 83-62 win against Fairfield as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Manhattan (15-12) has won two games in a row after their 85-79 win against Niagara as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pioneers have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference rival. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a victory on their home court by 20 or more points. Sacred Heart plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They rank 45th in the nation by averaging only 16.3 seconds per possession — and they rank 46th in the nation by averaging 70.4 possessions per game. In conference play, they rank second in both those categories. The Pioneers rank second in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they also rank 295th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they drop to 345th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are allowing +11.2 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Their opponents are making 46.6% of their shots when they are playing on the road which is resulting in 79.5 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 327th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.8% in their games away from home. But they also rank 25th in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Sacred Heart has played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Additionally, the Pioneers have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Manhattan has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Jaspers lead the MAAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they also rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stay at home where they drop to 350th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they also lead the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. Manhattan is surrendering +4.1 more points per 100 possessions when at home as opposed to being on the road. The Jaspers have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaspars look to avenge a 74-72 loss at Sacred Heart on February 2nd — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Sacred Heart Pioneers (719) and the Manhattan Jaspers (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Le Moyne Dolphins (306567) and the Central Connecticut Blue Devils (306568) in the Quarterfinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Le Moyne (9-22) has lost four games in a row after their 85-79 loss at Stone Hill as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Central Connecticut (23-6) has won 12 games in a row after a 55-48 victory at Wagner as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Devils are the top seed in this conference riding the nation’s longest active winning streak — and this bestowed them the right to host all of their games as long as they advance in this tournament. They only made 37.8% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. But Central Connecticut has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of those 8 games following a victory Over the Total when playing at home. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow Northeast Conference rival — and they have played 5 of these 6 games Over the Total when playing at home following a win against a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total following a win on the road. They return home where they are making 49.8% of their shots which is resulting in 78.3 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +5.6 more PPG when playing at home — and they lead the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are scoring +2.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — but they are also surrendering +5.7 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. The Blue Devils have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. They have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs as a double-digit favorite. Le Moyne has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road after a loss to a Northeast Conference rival. And while they have played nine straight Overs, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Dolphins rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they are a solid offensive team that has made 48.1% of their shots in their last five games. Le Moyne leads the conference in both getting to the free throw line and their 54.2% effective field goal percentage. The Dolphins have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Le Moyne wants to avenge an 84-75 loss at Central Connecticut as a 12.5-point underdog on February 27th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Le Moyne Dolphins (306567) and the Central Connecticut Blue Devils (306568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (847) and the UTSA Roadrunners (848). THE SITUATION: Rice (13-16) has lost five of their last six games after their 84-72 loss at Memphis as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. UTSA (10-17) has lost six games in a row after their 96-89 loss at East Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls only made 41.4% of their shots against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Rice has played 6 straight Overs after losing on the road in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing to a fellow American Athletic Conference rival in their last contest. The Owls are 10th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and now they face a Roadrunners team that ranks 355th in the nation in opponent free throw rate so Rice should get the charity stripe plenty of times in this one. Points being scored when the clock is stopped is a great formula for the Over. The Owls stay on the road where they actually lead the nation in getting to the free -hrow line. They rank second in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They also lead the conference by making 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But Rice also ranks 11th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. One of their biggest problems on defense is they rarely force turnovers which means their opponents are usually getting shots off against them. They rank 339th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.1% of their opponent’s possessions — and they are only forcing turnovers in 11.9% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. The Owls have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage in the 20-40% range — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UTSA allowed the Pirates to make 52.6% of their shots last Sunday. The Roadrunners’ last five opponents are making 47.8% of their shots against them which is resulting in 80.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank 10th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UTSA has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up loss. They have also played  8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. The Roadrunners return home where they are scoring 80.3 PPG fueled by nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play which is the second-best mark in the conference. But UTSA also ranks 327th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.3%. Additionally, they rank 352nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.2% of their missed shots. Rice is a good offensive rebounding team that ranks 60th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. The Roadrunners have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. They have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. And in their last 10 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games, UTSA has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Rice is avenging a 90-84 upset loss at home against the Roadrunners on January 14th as a 4-point favorite — and they have 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (847) and the UTSA Roadrunners (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Delaware Blue Hens (767) and the College of Charleston Cougars (768). THE SITUATION: Delaware (12-17) has lost four straight games and nine of their last ten contests after their 78-65 upset loss at home against Hofstra as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Charleston (21-8) had their two-game winning streak end in a 64-55 upset loss at Drexel as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Hens made 47.2% of their shots in what was their third straight upset loss on Saturday — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 47.0% of their shots on the season which is resulting in 76.7 Points-Per-Game. They also allowed the Pride to make 52.6% of their shots although that was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. Their last five opponents are making 50.2% of their shots against them. Delaware ranks 343rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Blue Hens have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 straight Overs after suffering an upset loss. They go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.4% of their shots resulting in 80.0 PPG. They drop to 354th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are giving up +6.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road rather than at home. But Delaware is one of the better offensive teams in the country. They rank 52nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% — and that clip rises to 54.9% in conference play. They also rank 36th in the nation by making 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc. They are scoring +8.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than when at home. The Blue Hens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And in their last 9 games with the Total set in the 150s, Delaware has played 6 of these games Over the Total. Charleston only made 37.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Cougars have (somehow) only played 4 games at home in the last three seasons following a loss — and they have played 3 of these games Over the Total. They return home where are making 46.7% of their shots resulting in 82.9 PPG. They rank seventh in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are scoring +7.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. But they are also giving up +2.5 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Charleston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. They have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a fast pace. Charleston ranks 79th in the nation by averring only 16.7 seconds per possession — and the 70.5 adjusted possessions per game that they average ranks 45th most in the country. Delaware ranks 41st in the nation by averaging 16.2 seconds per possession — and the 70.7 adjusted possessions per game mark ranks 37th in the nation. When two teams meet who like to play fast, the pace often gets even quicker as they look to out-run each other. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Delaware Blue Hens (767) and the College of Charleston Cougars (768). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:37 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (23) and the Los Angeles Kings (24). THE SITUATION: Vegas (34-17-6) has won three games in a row after their 3-1 win against Vancouver on Saturday. Los Angeles (30-18-6) has won four of their last five games after a 5-3 win against Utah on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 10 games on the road when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Vegas has played 12 of their 19 games in the second half of the season Under the Total as they tighten things up on defense — but injuries impacting their scoring attack have also played a role. Center William Karlsson remains out — he has only played 38 games this season with seven goals and 11 assists but he remains a valuable veteran who can anchor the third line. Don’t underestimate the loss of defenseman Shea Theodore to the scoring attack as he has assisted on 41 goals and added seven goals himself. The Golden Knights are scoring only 2.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five games — but they have given up only 2.2 goals in those five contests. They also hold their Pacific Division rivals to 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. Adin Hill is their likely goaltender tonight after he stopped 33 of the 34 shots he faced against the Canucks on Saturday. He has a 2.59 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage this season but is playing his best goaltending right now. In his last two starts in January, he posted a .919 save percentage by stopping 57 of the 62 shots he faced. In his three starts this month, he has a 2.02 Goals-Against-Average and a .922 save percentage. He has +10.5 Goals Saved Above Expectation on the season. Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 51-60% of their games. And while the Kings only give up 25.5 Shots-Per-Game, the Golden Knights have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against opponents who are not surrendering more than 26.5 Shots-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win on their home ice. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home when playing for the second time in five days — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last fourteen days. The Kings stay at home where they are only giving up 2.3 Goals-Per-Game. Vegas is outscoring their opponents by +0.6 Goals-Per-Game — and the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against opponents who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. Darcy Kuemper is their confirmed goaltender tonight. He has a 2.22 GAA and a .918 save percentage this season — and in his 11 starts at home, he sports a 2.08 GAA and a .924 save percentage. He boasts +11.3 Goals Saved Above Expectation. The Kings are scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game against Pacific Division rivals. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games. And while the Golden Knights generate 30.9 Shots-Per-Game and convert on 27.4% of their Power Plays, Los Angeles has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams averaging 29.5 or more Shots-Per-Game and converting on 17.5% or more of their Power Play chances. Vegas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams using a goalie with a .915 or better save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Knights want to avenge a 6-3 loss in Los Angeles to the Kings on October 30th — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by three or more goals. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (23) and the Los Angeles Kings (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (761) and the Northern Colorado Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Idaho (12-15) has won two of their last three games after their 83-78 upset victory at home against Northern Arizona as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Northern Colorado (20-8) has won three of their last four games after their 95-76 victory against Eastern Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vandals held Northern Arizona to just 40.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. But Idaho still ranks 349th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an upset victory. They stay on the road tonight — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total after playing their previous game on the road. They rank 348th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home where they are surrendering +4.5 more points per 100 possessions than at home. They are allowing their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 77.6 Points-Per-Game. But the Vandals are a good offensive team that ranks third in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 95th in the nation in effective field goal percentage — and they rains 3-point attempts by ranking 18th in the nation by taking 48.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they rank 66th in the country by making 35.6% of their shots from downtown. Idaho has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their 15 games away from home this season Over the Total. Northern Colorado nailed 66.7% of their shots on Thursday — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points including five of their six games this season. Furthermore, the Bears have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. Northern Colorado is a dynamic scoring machine that leads the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% based on them making 58.5% of their shots inside the arc which is the ninth-highest mark in the country. At home, they are making 54.5% of their shots which is resulting in 86.1 PPG — and they score +5.8 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 60.3% with them ranking 10th by nailing 40.6% of their 3-pointers and ranking eighth by making 61.5% of their shots inside the arc. But the Bears may get lackadaisical on defense when playing at home where they rank 320th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They give up +11.2 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Their guests make 55.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 340th in the nation. More importantly against this Vandals team, they allow their visitors to make 36.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 301st in the nation. Northern Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. They have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Idaho has allowed their last five opponents to make 48.4% of their shots which has resulted in 78.4 PPG — and they allow their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots for the season. The Bears have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 45% or more of their shots including six overs in those eight games this season. The Vandals have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Over the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Colorado is avenging a 77-76 loss at Idaho as a 4-point favorite back on January 23rd. The Bears have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (761) and the Northern Colorado Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (737) and the Utah State Aggies (738). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (12-15) has lost three games in a row after their 73-58 victory as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Utah State (22-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-79 loss at New Mexico as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans only made 38.8% of their shots last Friday which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. San Jose State has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total after losing their last game. And while this is their second game since last Tuesday, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last eight days. San Jose State struggles on the defensive end of the court where they rank 210th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and ninth in the Mountain West Conference. On the road, they are allowing their opponents to make 46.9% of their shots which is resulting in 73.8 Points-Per-Game — and they drop to 256th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road by surrendering +5.1 more points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home. On the road, they are also scoring +5.7 more points per 100 possessions than at home — and while they rank just 195th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they improve to 70th in that metric when playing on the road. They are nailing 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road, ranking 23rd in the nation — and the Aggies struggle in defending the perimeter when playing at home as will be shown below. The Spartans have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Utah State has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.5% of their shots which has resulted in 79.4 PPG. They rank 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 18th in the nation and tops in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. At home, they improve to 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency where they score +5.6 more points per 100 possessions than on the road. They are making 51.1% of their shots at home resulting in 87.9 PPG. The Aggies thrive inside the arc where they rank seventh in the nation by making 58.8% of their shots -- and they make 60.2% of their 2-pointers when playing at home. They also lead the Mountain West Conference by making 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. But Utah State allows their guests to make 54.6% of their shots from inside the arc and 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 328th and 289th in the nation respectively. Their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency drops to 190th in the nation when playing at home where they give up +7.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home than on the road. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total when the Total is set in the 140s. They have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a losing record — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when favored by double-digits. And while the Spartans allow their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots, Utah State has played 5 straight Overs against teams who allow their opponents to make 45.0% or more of their shots from the field.  

FINAL TAKE: San Jose State wants to avenge an 85-78 loss at home to the Aggies as a 9.5-point underdog back on January 7th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when playing with revenge on their minds. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (737) and the Utah State Aggies (738). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). THE SITUATION: Central Arkansas (7-20) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 84-83 upset win in overtime at home against North Florida as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Queens University-Charlotte (16-11) has lost two of their last three games after their 86-80 loss in overtime at Eastern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears held North Florida to 37.3% shooting which was their second-best defensive effort in their last 24 contests. Central Arkansas has played 4 straight Overs on the road after pulling off an upset victory. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. The Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation that ranks 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 12th in the Atlantic Sun Conference in that metric. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 82.4 Points-Per-Game which is +5.0 more points per 100 possessions than what they are allowing at home. In conference play, they are allowing their home hosts to make 42.9% of their 3s and 62.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 11th and 12th in the Atlantic Sun. They are also scoring +8.7 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. While they do not shoot the ball well, they do rank third in the conference by pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. Central Arkansas has played 19 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total including eight of their last 13 games this season. They have played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Queens University has scored 80 or more points in four of their last five games — and while two of those games went into overtime, they scored at least 72 points in regulation time in those two games. In their last five games, they are making 50.4% of their shots which has resulted in 80.6 PPG. The Royals have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including seven of their last 10 games Over the Total this season. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss in conference play — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Sun rival. And while Queens has played three straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They return home where they are making 45.8% of their shots resulting in 82.3 PPG which is +5.5 more PPG than their season average. They rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home against Atlantic Sun rivals. But they also rank eighth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency against conference opponents — and they are giving up +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. The Royals have played 15 of their last 22 games at home Over the Total including seven of their last 10 games. They have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home with the Total set in the 140s. Central Arkansas surrenders 77.4 PPG this season — and Queens has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who give up 77 or more PPG. They have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears want to avenge a 64-47 loss at home to Queens back on February 5th in an outlier low-scoring game for both teams. The Royals’ lone game in their last five where they did not score at least 72 points in regulation or 80 points overall was that contest. And those 47 points were the fewest that Central Arkansas scored all season — they only made one of their 21 shots from behind the arc in that game. The Bears score 70.0 PPG this season — and they should make more 3s tonight against this Queens' team that ranks 10th in the Atlantic Sun by allowing their guests to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Bears have played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). THE SITUATION: Delaware State (13-10) has won five games in a row after their 90-69 victory against Howard as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Norfolk State (17-8) has won five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 75-63 victory at Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Delaware State has made 48.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 91.4 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which is resulting in 78.3 PPG which is +6.9 more points than their season average. They rank 309th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are surrendering +8.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They are also scoring +2.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Hornets have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Part of Delaware State’s problems on defense is that commits too many fouls. They rank 319th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. The Hornets pull down 35.9% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Spartans rank 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.6% of their missed shots. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They lead the MEAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their last five games, they are making 51.1% of their shots which has resulted in 84.0 PPG. At home, the Spartans are making 53.4% of their shots which has resulted in 86.8 PPG. They are scoring +2.4 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. They rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are surrendering +7.9 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home. And while they have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1%, the Hornets have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Delaware State wants to avenge a 73-64 loss at home against Norfolk State on January 6th. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 revenge opportunities Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). THE SITUATION: Troy (16-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 74-56 victory at UL-Lafayette as a 10-point favorite on Thursday. Arkansas State (19-7) ended their two-game losing streak with a 101-67 victory against Southern Mississippi as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 gamers Under the Total after a win of 15 or more points. Troy ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay on the road where they rank 37th in the nation in that metric. They are holding their opponents to -5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.2% shooting inside the arc when playing on the road. They are holding their opponents to 41.3% shooting on the road which is resulting in just 63.7 Points-Per-Game. But they are only making 40.6% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.8 PPG. They only make 27.3% of their shots from behind the arc on the road, ranking 350th in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 46.8% on the road ranks 288th. The Trojans have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Troy does lead the nation by pulling down 41.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road — and that serves to slow the game down since they extend their possession with a reset shot clock more than two times per five possessions. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home Under the total after beating a conference opponent. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank fourth in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank 40th in the nation in that metric when playing at home. They are holding their guests to just 38.2% shooting when playing at home which is resulting in 63.8 PPG — and they are giving up -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when at home versus playing on the road. The Red Wolves rank 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and that mark improves to a 43.2% percentage when they are playing on their home court, ranking 11th in the nation. They hold their visitors to just a 25.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking fifth lowest in the nation. But this team possesses just a 49.9% effective field goal percentage on offense this season which ranks 276th in the nation. Arkansas State has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored.  

FINAL TAKE: These two played on January 11th when the Red Wolves made 9 of their 23 shots from behind the arc and the Trojans nailed 10 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in Arkansas State’s 84-78 victory. Look for the Regression Gods to appear with both teams not shooting as well from distance tonight. The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Red Wolves are outscoring their opponents by +9.5 PPG, Troy has played 5 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arkansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Saturday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). THE SITUATION: Marist (16-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-71 upset loss against Iona as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Siena (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 61-59 upset loss at Rider on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road against a fellow Metro Atlanta Athletic Conference rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home after a loss to a conference foe. Siena returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Saints rank 254th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are surrendering 73.0 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are giving up +2.4 more points per 100 possessions at home as opposed to on the road. They are scoring 77.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are scoring +5.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and that dynamic should extend the length of this game since the Red Foxes rank ninth in the conference in defensive free throw rate. Siena has played 5 straight games Over the Total when playing at home and is listed in the +/- 3-point range. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Red Foxes rank 188th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% when playing on the road based on the strength of their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation by nailing 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Marist has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are attempting to avenge a 72-67 loss at Marist back on January 31st — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). THE SITUATION: Dayton (16-8) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 73-68 loss to VCU at home as a 1-point underdog on Friday. Fordham (11-12) has won three of their last four games after their 80-79 upset win against Rhode Island as a 1.5-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Flyers held the Rams to 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games and tied for their best defensive performance in their last 20 contests. They also only made 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Dayton has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their 7 games after a loss this season Over the Total. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on they go back on the road where they are giving up 74.7 Points-Per-Game which is +5.7 more PPG than their season average. While they rank 145th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall this season, they fall to 174th in that metric when playing away from home. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions on the road — and they are also scoring +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Flyers rank 53rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency overall this season — and they improve to ranking 27th in that metric when playing away from home. They lead the Atlantic 10 Conference by making 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 20th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-pointers when away from home. The Rams struggle with their perimeter defense when playing at home where they rank 327th in the nation by allowing their guests to nail 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Fordham also ranks 13th in the Atlantic 10 in defensive free throw rate — and Dayton ranks third in the Atlantic 10 in getting to the free throw line. The Flyers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total played in February. Fordham only made 43.5% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Rams have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after an upset victory. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. Fordham stays at home where they are scoring 81.9 PPG which is +6.1 more PPG than their season average. They are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. And while the Rams rank 14th in the Atlantic 10 and 225th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they fall to 243rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They are giving up +2.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home as opposed to on the road. Fordham has played 20 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total including 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total this season — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. In conference play, the Rams are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots which is resulting in 79.9 PPG. While the national average for possession length is 17.6 seconds, Fordham ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents averaging only 16.7 seconds per possession — a hidden metric that helps explain why they have played three straight Overs. The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Fordham has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Dayton has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What did the four teams that reached the Conference Championship Games all have in common? Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City were the top four teams in the NFL in fourth-down success rate as each of them converting on at least 70% of their fourth-down attempts. The Chiefs and the Eagles are not shy about going for it on fourth down — and I expect both head coaches to be very aggressive in this game. This aggressiveness should result in fewer punts with both offenses likely to generate points on each of their drives. However, the flip side of this equation is that the occasional failure to convert on fourth down could create short fields for their opponent. Philadelphia gained 459 yards of offense against the Commanders despite quarterback Jalen Hurts being less than 100 percent with the knee injury he suffered the previous week against Green Bay. I worried that his passes would sail high with his front left leg not completely stable. Instead, he completed 20 of 38 passes for 246 yards. With two weeks of rest and recovery, he should be closer to full health. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after a victory by two or more touchdowns. They have played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC. In regards to Kansas City, we were on the Over in the AFC Championship Game. In that Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points with the offense as healthy as they have been all season. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Eagles hold their opponents to 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing more than 5.7 YPA. Philadelphia is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Part of the dynamic in Kansas City’s 12-0 record in one-score games this season is they score just enough points to outlast their opponent. Against a healthy Eagles offense that scored 35 points against them in the Super Bowl two years ago, I suspect that head coach Andy Reid will conclude that it will take at least 30 points to win this game — and that will impact the game script (just like it did in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills). In Reid’s head coaching career in the playoffs when his team was the number one seed and facing a number two seed (like against Buffalo two weeks ago), 4 of those 5 playoff games finished Over the Total — including all three of those games with the Chiefs. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (15-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-79 upset loss to Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (16-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 92-82 loss at home against Auburn as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Razorbacks to make 55.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mark Pope should get his team to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court tonight. Kentucky has played 6 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points this season — and those six opponents averaged only 71.8 Points-Per-Game with four of those teams shooting no better than 41.8% from the field and only one shooting better than 43.9%. Going back to his previous tenure at Utah, Pope’s teams have played 8 of their 10 games in his coaching career Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Pope’s focus is mostly on the offensive end of the court — but he does have this Kentucky team playing good perimeter defense. The Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road where they are holding their opponents to 27.6% shooting from behind the arc which is the tenth-best mark in the country. Kentucky does not have a proven true point guard healthy for this showdown tonight with LaMont Butler doubtful with an injury — he is scoring 13.2 Points-Per-Game and adding 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Kerr Kriisa would be the backup point guard but the former West Virginia and Arizona transfer is also out with an injury. The Wildcats are shooting 48.5% from the field this season which is resulting in 87.2 PPG — but those numbers drop to 43.0% shooting on the road which is resulting in 76.1 PPG. They score -8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home — but they do at least give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. Kentucky has played 7 of their 11 games this season Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and this includes all 4 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. In Pope’s 21 games on the road in his coaching career with the Total set in the 150s, 14 of those games finished Under the Total. Ole Miss allowed the Tigers to make 48.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Rebels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Ole Miss ranks 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay at home where they are holding their guests to 39.8% shooting which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are giving up -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also scoring -13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road — and they may be undermanned tonight as well. Senior guard Matthew Murrell is questionable with an injury — he is their second-leading scorer with his 11.2 Points-Per-Game clip. As it is, the Rebels rank just tenth in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Mississippi has played 8 of their 10 games at home this season Under the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Ole Miss’ Chris Beard is known as a defensive guru in his nine seasons as a head coach — and this is just his ninth game in his career when the Total was set in the 150s in a home game. In those 8 home games with the Total set from 150 to 159.5, 5 of them finished Under the Total. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (16-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 72-63 upset loss to South Dakota State as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. St. Thomas (17-6) has won two games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 86-71 victory against Oral Roberts as a 13-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 37.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 contests. That performance was truly an outlier for a team that tanks second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. North Dakota State leads the nation by nailing 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are no slouches inside the arc where they rank 24th by making 56.8% of their shots. But on the other end of the court, they rank just 280th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bison have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss. They have paled 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. On the road, they are making 48.0% of their shots — including 42.5% of their 3-pointers which also leads the nation — resulting in 81.5 Points-Per-Game. More importantly, they are scoring +6.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home. They are also allowing their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 75.1 PPG. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. North Dakota State has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. St. Thomas made 57.1% of their shots last Wednesday which was the 12th time this season when they made at least 50% of their shots. The Tommies rank third in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. They are making 39.0% of their shots from behind at the arc and 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking eighth and ninth in the nation. But like their opponents this afternoon, they are a below-average defensive team that ranks 251st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. St. Thomas has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They stay at home where they are making 51.3% of their shots resulting in 91.3 PPG. They rank second in the country by making 43.4% of their shots from behind the arc. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home — but they are also surrendering +9.0 more points per 100 possessions in their home games. Their guests are nailing 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 330th worst mark when assessing home court splits. The Tommies have played 17 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in February. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: In their last 22 games against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field, St. Thomas has played 15 of these games Over the Total — and they have played seven of their last nine games Over the Total under these circumstances. 25* CBB Sunday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (14-8) has lost three games in a row after their 62-58 upset loss at home against UL-Monroe as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday. UL-Lafayette (6-15) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 70-61 upset victory at Texas State as an 11.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars got upset by the Warhawks in two straight games despite being a double-digit favorite in both contests. Dissecting what happened in those losses is straightforward. Head coach Richie Riley has two main ways for his team to generate offense: fast break opportunities coming off turnovers and 3-point shooting. South Alabama leads the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and they maintain that clip for all their games which is the 38th-best mark in the nation. The Jaguars matched that 20.8% mark in their first meeting with UL-Monroe last Monday which resulted in 14 turnovers — but they only made 10 of their 39 (25.6%) shots from behind the arc in a 77-66 loss. In the rematch, South Alabama made 40.4% of their shots overall which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they still only made 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. Perhaps even worse, they only forced eight turnovers from just 12.9% of the Warhawks’ possessions in scoring just 58 points. The Jaguars have not scored more than 66 points in four straight games. But they do play good half-court defense when not forcing turnovers. UL-Monroe shot 38.3% from the field in Thursday’s game which was the best shooting effort against South Alabama in their last six games. The Jaguars rank 20th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. They lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference by holding their opponents to just 28.5% shooting from behind the arc. South Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 37.2% shooting which results in 62.3 Points-Per-Game. In terms of adjusted efficiency, they are giving up -6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when away from home than at home. But they are only making 40.4% of their shots on the road which is generating only 66.0 PPG. Furthermore, they are scoring -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. They rank eighth in the nation by attempting 50.1% of their shots from behind the arc this season — but on the road, they are only converting on 31.0% of these shots which ranks 252nd in the nation. The Jaguars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in hostile environments this season. They have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, South Alabama has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their gamers. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in February. UL-Lafayette made 43.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Like UL-Monroe, UL-Lafayette should limit the Jaguars' scoring opportunities on the fast break. They rank second in the Sun Belt by only turning the ball over in 13.7% of their possessions in conference play. They also do a good job of defending the perimeter. When playing at home, their guests make only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 122nd, but they do an even better job of getting their opponents off the 3-point line. They rank 35th in the nation by limiting their visitors to taking just 33.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. South Alabama is vulnerable against good outside shooting teams — they allow their opponents to take 59.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the nation. But the Ragin’ Cajuns only make 31.5% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home which ranks 276th in the nation. In their 12 games at home, they are making just 39.3% of their shots resulting in 64.6 PPG. UL-Lafeyette has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on their home court including eight of their 11 games this season. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: This game should be played at a slow pace which should contribute to what shapes up as a rock fight. South Alabama’s games average 63.2 adjusted possessions per game which ranks 345th in the nation. Their half-court defense makes it tough on their opponents who are averaging 18.9 seconds per possession which is the sixth-highest rate in the country. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 204th in the nation with their games seeing 66.6 adjusted possessions — and their opponents are averaging 18.2 seconds per possession which ranks 327th. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-20) has won three of their last four games after their 128-116 win at San Antonio as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (12-32) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after a 104-83 upset loss at home against Brooklyn as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hornets shot a season-low 33.7% from the field against the Nets. While I often consider low shooting efforts like that simply an outlier due for a visit from the Regression Gods, in this case, I suspect it is a canary in the coal mine given the injuries that this team is enduring right now. Brandon Miller is already out the season with a wrist injury — he was scoring 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Now LeMelo Ball is out with an ankle injury — he is scoring 28.2 PPG and adding another 7.3 Assists-Per-Game. To compound matters, Mark Williams is also out with a foot injury which takes away his 15.5 PPG scoring average. The Hornets simply lack reliable scoring threats. Charlotte has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Hornets stay at home where they are only making 42.1% of their shots which is resulting in 105.7 PPG — but they play solid defense on their home court by holding their opponents to just 108.7 PPG. They have played 18 of their last 23 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight Unders at home against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Charlotte has played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles nailed 52.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed San Antonio to make 48.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Clippers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. This is their third straight game on the road since Monday — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Los Angeles is scoring only 108.5 PPG — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road. The Hornets are getting outscored by -5.0 PPG this season — and the Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams getting outscored by -3.0 or more PPG.  

FINAL TAKE: In 13 games, the Clippers are holding their Eastern Conference opponents to just 42.2% shooting which is resulting in 101.8 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total in non-conference play. The Hornets have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home in non-conference action. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). THE SITUATION:  Longwood (16-6) has won three games in a row after their 80-54 win against USC Upstate as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Gardner-Webb (8-12) has lost three of their last four games after a 61-53 upset loss against UNC-Asheville as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Longwood played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding USC Upstate to just 37.0% shooting — and the 54 points they surrendered were the fewest of the season. But the Lancers had given up at least 74 points in five straight games before that performance. Longwood has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. The Lancers are scoring 78.6 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored at least 77 points in six straight contests. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.8% of their shots which is resulting in 76.2 PPG which is +5.5 PPG above their season average. They are also scoring 107.0 Points Per 100 Possessions away from home which is +5.9 Points Per 100 Possessions above their scoring rate at home. Longwood has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total away from home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Lancers scoring attack is at their best when they are getting to the free throw line — they rank fifth in the nation in free throw rate. The Runnin’ Bulldogs pressure the basketball — they rank 21st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.7% of their opponents’ possessions. But the flip side of this aggressiveness is that they rank 254th in defensive free throw rate. When these styles of teams clash the result is either a turnover or a foul over 50% of the time — and that means plenty of scoring opportunities either on the fast break or at the charity stripe (when the clock is stopped). Gardner-Webb only made 32.0% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They also held UNC-Asheville to 36.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last eight days. They stay at home where they are making 47.7% of their shots resulting in 77.4 PPG. They are also scoring +5.7 more Points Per 100 Possessions when playing at home as opposed to playing on the road. Gardner-Webb has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while they are making 46.2% of their shots on the season, the Lancers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Longwood has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in games with the Total set in the 140s — and Gardner-Webb has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think this is another playoff shootout between these two heavyweights where both quarterbacks will throwing haymakers and scoring touchdowns by the fourth quarter — and there is very good evidence that this kind of games go Over in conference championship games in my Final Take. This is the fourth playoff showdown between these two teams in the Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes saga — and the first three games saw 62, 78, and 51 combined points scored. These two teams did play on November 17th in the regular season with Buffalo winning by a 31-20 score. In head coach Andy Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, his teams have played 11 of their 16 opportunities to exact same-season revenge Over the Total. The Bills are going to get their points again. They are scoring 30.7 Points-Per-Game this season while reaching the 30-point threshold 13 times and the 27-point threshold 14 times. They have scored 28.3 PPG in the four playoff games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Chiefs allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and the Bills have played 14 of their last 18 games away from home against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of their passes. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Overs away from home against teams winning 75% or more of their games. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days — and, at the very least, that produces a game script friendly to the Over. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — but it has impacted the Chiefs’ inside rushing attack. Running back Isiah Pacheco generates 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry with Thuney at left guard — but at left tackle, Pacheco is only generating 2.8 YPC. Reid knows those numbers — and he knows that the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. That’s Over country. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. If they needed to score more points in those games, they would have. The Chiefs have had three games at home this season with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. All three contests went Over: 27-20 versus Baltimore; 26-25 versus Cincinnati; 30-24 versus Tampa Bay. Those games seem similar to this one — albeit with Kansas City probably needing to score even more points to survive and advance.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these heavyweights are going down without a fight. Reid has played four games in his coaching career where his team was the number one seed playing the number two seed in a conference championship game — and the Over is 3-1 in those two games with a 2-0 mark with the Chiefs. The Bills have played 5 of their 8 playoff games Over the Total as a number two seed (never the top seed) under head coach Sean McDermott. Here’s the kicker: in the last 19 Conference Championship Games between the top two seeds, the Over is 13-5-1. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-7) has won three of their last four games after their 95-79 upset win against Wright State as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky (9-11) has lost four games in a row after their 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers allowed the Raiders to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 contests. Milwaukee still ranks third in the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their opponents to 44.7% shooting when playing on the road in hostile environments. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They stay on the road where they are holding their opponents to -4.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than they are giving up when they are playing at home. But they are scoring -8.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in hostile environments than at home. They are scoring 74.5 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -4.6 fewer PPG than their overall scoring average. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games when favored or a pick ‘em including all four of those games this season. They have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January. The Panthers lead the Horizon League by pulling down 42.5% of their missed shots in conference play — and second-chance opportunities contribute to lower-scoring games since both teams end up with fewer overall possessions. Milwaukee also leads the conference in getting to the free throw line — but the Norse lead the Horizon League in defensive free throw rate so the Panthers are not likely to reach the 24 shots per game from the charity stripe they average. Northern Kentucky has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite to a Horizon League rival. This is their second game since last Wednesday — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 41.4% shooting which results in 65.7 PPG. They give up -5.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions at home versus on the road in hostile environments. The Norse has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 130 to 139.5. But scoring is an issue for this Northern Kentucky team that makes only 42.2% of their shots resulting in 69.3 PPG — and they are only scoring 71.7 PPG when playing at home. They rank ninth in the Horizon League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are only making 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc this season — and the Norse have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 31% of their 3-pointers. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (15-26) has lost six games in a row after their 123-109 loss at Milwaukee as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (26-16) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after a 113-100 victory at Orlando as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best defensive game of the season two days ago by holding the Magic to just 37.3% shooting. Now returning home as a double-digit favorite against a banged-up Sixers team, their attention to detail on defense may not be as sharp tonight. But Denver should continue to flex their muscles on the other end of the court where they are clicking on all cylinders. They made 51.9% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They have made at least 51.7% of their shots in six of their last seven games. The Nuggets are healthy right now — and Jamal Murray is probable to play tonight despite a nagging calf injury. Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. The 76ers are allowing their opponents to nail 48.9% of their shots — and the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. And while Philly only scores 107.5 Points-Per-Game, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are not scoring more than 108 PPG. The 76ers allowed the Bucks to make 49.4% of their shots which was actually their best defensive effort in their last four games. Their three previous opponents all made at least 53% of their shots against them. Philadelphia is banged up with Joel Embiid and Jared McCain out tonight with injuries — and Paul George is listed as questionable. Not having Embiid as a rim protector hurts the Sixers’ defensive efforts. In their last five games, their opponents are making 52.0% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season average. Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. And while the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by +4.6 PPG, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +3.0 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-5) has won six games in a row after their 23-20 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (15-2) comes off the bye last week after ending their regular season with a 31-9 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on January 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have high-powered offenses — and both these teams are aggressive on fourth downs. The high-risk/high-reward tactics of going for it on fourth down leads to more scoring either from extending drives or offering short fields to their opponent when the conversion attempt fails. The Commanders were three-of-five on fourth down last week against the Buccaneers — and it led to 14 points. For the season, Washington has converted 23 of their 28 (82%) fourth down attempts — and it has generated an additional 129 points for them. Having Jayden Daniels helps — and it is often on fourth downs when the threat he presents with his legs comes to fruition. The Commanders rank fourth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play. They have scored points on 50% of their possessions this season. They have scored at least 26 points in ten of their games. Washington has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Commanders' defense has played better lately as they rank in the top ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders in their last six games of the regular season. But they enjoyed a favorable schedule during that span against backup quarterbacks for Dallas (twice), New Orleans, and Tennessee, and a rookie quarterback for Atlanta. The only quarterback they faced during that span who was a Week One starter was Jalen Hurts — and Philadelphia scored 33 points against them. Washington has played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing on short rest. Detroit has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points. With head coach Dan Campbell proudly splitting kings at the blackjack table, the Lions rank second in the NFL in Fourth Down Conversion Rate. They also rank second in Third Down Conversion Rate and seventh in Red Zone Touchdown Rate with offensive coordinator and future head coach Ben Johnson calling the plays. Detroit ranks third in the league in Expected Points Added per play — and they have scored points on 51.6% of their possessions. They have scored at least 31 points in ten straight games — and they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games. However, the defense ranks in the bottom five in Defensive DVOA in the final six weeks of the regular season, and they ranked 30th in that metric over the final three weeks. Looking at Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed, they ranked 28th in that metric since Week 13. Against teams ranking in the top ten in Offensive DVOA, they surrendered 27.8 Points-Per-Game. Green Bay, Buffalo, and San Francisco scored 31, 48, and 34 points against them in games since December. And while the defense looked great against the Vikings, I think that speaks more to the state of the Minnesota offensive line along with Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again than it does about the quality of this defense. Opponents have completed 69.3% of their passes against them on first down — so I suspect that will be the game script for the Commanders to throw on first down which will lead to more passing and more stoppage of the clock. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against winning teams.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including five of those six games this season. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Chargers to just 261 yards of offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and their last two opponents have only scored 26 combined points against them. Houston has an outstanding defense that is balanced. They rank sixth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and seventh in the league in Opponent EPA per pass attempt. Defensive end Willie Anderson has taken his game to the next level. In his last six contests, the second-year pro has five sacks, 12 hits on the quarterback, and six tackles for loss. The Texans rank third in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. But the Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Under head coach DeMeco Ryan, the Texans have played 12 of their 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. The Chiefs offense is likely to start this game sluggish after not playing a meaningful game since Christmas Day. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. Kansas City has played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: In Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, Kansas City has paled 33 of their 44 home games Under the Total when favored by at least seven points. The weather will not help the scoring with the temperature in the low-20s — and the wind is over 10 miles per hour. 25* NFL AFC Divisional Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). THE SITUATION: Providence (9-9) had won two games in a row before their 84-64 loss at Creighton as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Villanova (11-7) has lost two games in a row after a 69-63 loss at Xavier as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 43.1% of their shots against the Musketeers — and their 63 points were the second-fewest that they have scored all season. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home again for the first time since January 8th. They are making 51.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 81.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home. Villanova lives by-the-3 and dies by-the-3 — and things shape up for them very well tonight to score a pile of points. They rank fourth in the nation by making 41.1% of their 3-pointers — and now they host a Friars team who ranks 320th in the nation away from home with their opponents making 38.1% of their shots behind the arc. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Villanova ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are only 169th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Providence ranks 106th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they are not likely to slow the Wildcats down tonight. They allowed the Bluejays to make 51.6% of their shots which was the second bad defensive game they have played in their last four games after UConn made 56.3% of their shots against them less than two weeks ago. But the Friars only made 38.2% of their shots against Creighton which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. Providence has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to a Big East rival. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. The Friars should score their share of points by crashing the glass tonight. They rank 39th in the nation by pulling down 35.2% of their missed shots — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Wildcats. Villanova ranks 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.6% of their missed shots — and their Big 12 opponents have pulled down 29.2% of their misses. Providence has played 10 of their last 15 games away from home Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a dog this season. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And in their last 12 games in January, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Friars are holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting this season — but Villanova has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). THE SITUATION: Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Don’t read too much into the Commanders' narrow win against the Cowboys where they only gained 269 yards of offense. Washington had nothing to play for in that game having already qualified for the postseason — and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did not play the entire game. The Commanders had scored at least 30 points in three of their four previous games. They are scoring 28.5 Points-Per-Game with the various metrics measuring offensive strength validating how good they are at putting up points. They rank sixth in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank fourth in Expected Points Added per play. They rank sixth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They also rank in the top five in Points-Per-Drive — and lead the NFL by scoring 2.8 Points-Per-Possession when playing on the road. But Washington is also giving up 373.9 total Yards-Per-Game on the road which is resulting in 25.0 Points-Per-Game. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total as a dog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. They have played four straight Overs — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. Washington gives up 137.5 rushing YPG — and Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. The Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while Tampa Bay averages 250.4 passing YPG, Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are averaging 235 or more passing YPG. The Commanders generate 5.0 YPC themselves — and the Bucs have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Additionally, head coach Todd Bowles has seen this team play 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against a team with a better record.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Daniels is certainly more comfortable and confident over four months later after his professional debut. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak after their 19-17 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (12-5) has won four games in a row after their 35-10 win against Cleveland as a 20-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens continued their defensive resurgence in the second half of the season by holding the Browns to just 230 total yards of offense. After struggling early defending the pass, head coach John Harbaugh brought back veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a special advisor to first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That brain trust decided to move Kyle Hamilton to the free safety position during their bye week — and this tactical change has transformed their defense. Baltimore had the following defensive rankings through the first ten weeks of the regular season: 25th in Points-Per-Game allowed; 27th in Total Yards-Per-Game allowed; 32nd in Passing YPG allowed; 30th in opponent 3rd Down Rate allowed; tied-20th in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage allowed; 26th in opponent Passer Rating allowed. Since Week 13, the Ravens' defense ranked number one in six of those categories. They have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held those last four opponents to 10.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional opponent. Now comes the postseason where quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past — and he admitted this week that he gets very amped up for these games which may be impacting his performances. And he faces a Steelers team that has done a good job of containing him over the year. In his regular season career, Jackson has completed 64.9% of his passes and averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 102.0 Quarterback Rating. In the playoffs, Jackson’s QBR drops to a 75.7 mark with him completing only 57.4% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He has only six touchdown passes in his six playoff games — and he has been sacked 26 times. The corollary of Jackson’s great winning percentage against NFC opponents is that a very familiar opponent like Pittsburgh who plays against him at least twice a year defends him quite well. In his eight career starts against head coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, he has a QBR of 73.1 while completing only 58.0% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He averages only 160.5 passing YPG in his career against Pittsburgh with eight TD passes by nine interceptions — and he has been sacked 23 times. To compound the challenge for Jackson in this game, he will be without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers who averaged 14.3 Yards-Per-Reception for 1059 receiving yards this season. In his two games against Pittsburgh this season, he has thrown for 207 passing yards in each game but only completed 55.3% of his passes. Pittsburgh managed only 193 total yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The midseason decline of quarterback Russell Wilson is real, and it is spectacular. In his first seven starts since taking over for Justin Fields, he averaged 254.9 passing YPG by completing 64.8% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while posting a 103.9 Passer Rating. But during this four-game losing streak, he has averaged only 174.5 passing YPG and completed just 61.8% of his passes with four TD passes and two interceptions — and he has posted an 81.3 Passer Rating. Opposing defenses have caught up to his moon-ball or bust approach in the passing game. As I picked up in his tenure in Denver, Wilson has mastered stuffing his stats as best he can with these deep shots peppered with very few passes in the middle of the field — and he takes too many sacks. But as long as his interception numbers stay relatively low and his completion percentage is solid — at the expense of being a Check-Down Charlie — he remains relevant and in line to getting yet another overpriced contract. In his two starts against Baltimore this season, he has taken seven sacks. Wide receiver George Pickens seems checked out himself with only one catch and three bad drops last week. The Steelers are scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last four games while never scoring more than 17 points in those games. The three previous NFL teams entering the playoffs having not scored more than 17 points in four straight games once again did not eclipse 17 points in their playoff game. During their four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in both Expected Points Added per play and Expected Points Added per dropback in the passing game. Running back Najee Harris averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry in his two games against the Ravens this season. The Steelers have played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 5 of their 7 games under head coach John Harbaugh in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes’ explosive offense may get most of the attention but it is their defense that I consider the most underrated unit in this contest. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards last week from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. Oregon went into that game scoring 35.9 Points-Per-Game. The Buckeyes pass rush was ferocious last week as they registered 13 tackles for loss. Defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have taken their games to another level in the playoffs by combing for 7.5 sacks, 16 Quarterback Pressures, and seven batted down passes. Knowles decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. In the playoffs, they have held their two opponents to -7 fewer points than even the bullish SP+ ratings projected. The 3.8 Yards-Per-Play allowed in the playoffs is also the lowest of all qualifying teams. The Longhorns offensive line may not be at full strength given the knee injury of right tackle Cameron Williams. He has practiced all week after not playing last week against the Sun Devils. Regardless, he was the weak link in Texas’ two losses to Georgia this season. Left tackle Kelvin Banks is good — but he can’t block both Tuimoloau and Sawyer. The Longhorns scored only 15 and 19 points against the Bulldogs — and they only managed to score 17 points against a Texas A&M team that also had an elite defensive front. Ohio State has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Texas scores 34.4 Points-Per-Game — and the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams scoring 37 or more PPG. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season — and he will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They hold their opens to 111.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game —  and Ohio State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 120 rushing YPG. The Buckeyes score 36.4 PPG and generate 263.4 passing YPG. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. Ohio State gives up only  246.4 total YPG — and in their 7 games under Sarkisian playing a team that does not allow more than 310 YPG, 5 of those games finished Under the Total. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of those 11 games Under the Total when played away from home. In their 6 games played on a neutral field under head coach Ryan Day as a favorite, 4 of those games finished Under the Total. In the 6 games Texas has played under Sarkisian as an underdog, 4 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both teams should score their share of points tonight. No one has been able to slow down the Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty. San Diego State did everything they could to tempt Boise State into avoiding handing him the ball and relying on quarterback Maddux Nelson — but Jeanty still rushed for 149 yards from 4.8 Yards-Pe-Carry against stacked boxes. Jeanty ran for 192 yards from 7.7 YPC early in the season against Oregon. On paper, the Nittany Lions rank fourth in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — but they are only 45th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed in 43% of their carries. But digging deeper, those numbers may be propped up by the softer opponents on their schedule. USC ran for 186 yards against them before Ohio State rushed for 176 yards two weeks later. In the Big Ten Championship Game, Oregon rushed for 183 yards against them. Say what you want about Boise State not having the same level of talent on their offensive line (although injured center Mason Randolph returned in their last two games) — but Jeanty does so much of his work after the first contact. Almost 1900 of his 2497 rushing yards this season were after contact. The Broncos deploy outside zone reads much like the Ducks, as opposed to the inside zone, reads that SMU relied on. If Jeanty has success and can approach or eclipse the 176 rushing yards mark by the Buckeyes, that should unlock the Boise State passing attack. USC, Ohio State, and Oregon generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Play and scored 31.7 Points-Per-Game against this Nittany Lions defense. The Broncos rank fifth in the nation by scoring touchdowns in 76.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. They generate 251.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Penn State has played 4 straight Overs against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Boise State has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. The Nittany Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by 28 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs away from home after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 8 straight games away from home Over the Total when the Total is set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Penn State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Boise State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). THE SITUATION: Detroit (13-2) rebounded from their loss to Buffalo with a 34-17 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (6-9) has lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 29-17 upset loss at Miami as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total is set at 50 or higher, there are many routes for the game to finish Under the Total. A few stalled red zone drives. Turnovers. Long drives that burns significant time off the clock. One particular dynamic for this game is the prospect that the Lions head coach Dan Campbell will ultimately decide to rest his key players on offense. I’ll get to that in the Final Take. After giving up 382 yards to the Bears last week, Detroit needs to use this game to find some answers and develop some momentum on defense — so I do not expect any let up on that side of the football. The Lions did enjoy +2 net turnover margin against Chicago — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while Detroit has played three straight Overs, they have then played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, they have played 7 of those games Under the Total. San Francisco has been playing better defense lately since the return of safety Talonoa Hufanga. They have held their last three opponents to just 281.7 total Yards-Per-Game since his return. The Niners rank fifth in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The 49ers can be run on — they ran 24th in Run Defense DVOA. I suspect that the Lions will run the ball to get backup running back Craig Reynolds plenty of reps because they will need to use him in the postseason to give Jahmyr Gibbs some help — and that should mean longer drives (which also gets Detroit out of this game faster). San Francisco has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 276.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 19.1 Points-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Lions are generating 6.4 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and San Francisco has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.65 or more YPP and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA. The 49ers have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog under head coach Kyle Shanahan.

FINAL TAKE: I could be wrong — but I just don’t think Campbell is going to keep Jared Goff and other essential offensive players on the field for the entire game. I know he claimed that he was going to use all his starters throughout this game even if a win would not help their playoff positioning. After Minnesota’s (infuriating) two-point victory against Green Bay (+1.5) yesterday, the Lions take the top seed in the NFC playoffs only by beating the Vikings on Sunday. If Hendan Hooker plays a significant amount of time at quarterback tonight with backups on offense, then the final score hitting 50 becomes very difficult. Even if Campbell defies all logic and reason and plays his offensive first-string all night, I think the game stays below 50 combined points — but after losing two +3.5 underdogs in overtime this weekend, I am in no mood to risk my money solely on the prospect that Dan Campbell will resist his machismo. On the other hand, if I endorsed and invested in the Over tonight — only to see Goff and company on the sidelines before the end of the first quarter, I would be apoplectic (especially after watching two favorites win games in overtime from touchdowns to cover -3.5 point spreads). The Regression Gods do even things out in the wash … sooner or later. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (593) and the Golden State Warriors (594). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-114 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Golden State (15-13) has lost four of their last five games after their 111-105 upset loss against Indiana as a 6-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers nailed 54.1% of their shots on Monday which was the highest shooting effort in their last 15 games. But they allowed the Pistons to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. Despite that subpar defensive performance, Los Angeles has still held their last five opponents to just 43.8% shooting which resulted in 104.6 Points-Per-Game which is -9.2 fewer PPG than their season average. But the Lakers are only making 45.3% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 106.6 PPG which is -5.6 fewer PPG than their season average. Rookie head coach and former podcaster J.J. Reddick was supposed to be an offensive guru for this team after espousing so many philosophies on the subject in his previous job (such as “shoot more 3” — so cutting edge!). But after posting an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.4 last year, that mark has dropped to 111.5 for Los Angeles this season. On the road, the Lakers are making only 45.2% of their shots resulting in 107.4 PPG which is -3.8 fewer PPG than their season average. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in that range. They have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their contests. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are relatively well rested after the NBA Cup time off two weeks ago with this being their fourth game since December 15th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Golden State is playing for just the fourth time since December 15th as well — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The team acquired Dennis Schroder to boost their scoring attack — but he has been a dud so far by averaging just 7.7 PPG and not even reaching double digits once in his first three games with the team. Steph Curry may be starting to show his age — in two of his last three games against Indiana and Memphis, he scored only 12 combined points on 2 of 20 shooting with 13 missed shots from behind the arc on 15 attempts. In their last five games, the Warriors are only making 43.4% of their shots resulting in 106.8 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Head coach Steve Kerr is getting good defensive play from his team that ranks ninth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank seventh in half-court defensive efficiency. Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (593) and the Golden State Warriors (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 34-17 win against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (9-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win versus an AFC North rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after a victory against a divisional rival. Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17. Houston only managed 311 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Chiefs. Their offense is missing two key pieces with guard Shaq Mason out with an injury and wide receiver Tank Dell suffering his terrible season-ending leg injury that may end his career. But the Texans' defense should keep them competitive in this game as they lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston should keep Baltimore’s Derrick Henry in relative check. They rank second in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards Allowed — and they stuff opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage 19% of the time. They held Detroit’s dynamic duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry from 31 attempts earlier this season — and De’Von Achane to just 3.4 YPC. The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that range. Lastly, the Texans have played straight home games Under the Total when the Total set is set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (12-2) has won ten games in a row after their 27-13 win against Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (9-5) has won two games in a row after their 20-19 victory at New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The stout Eagles defense held the Steelers to just 163 yards of offense last week. During their ten-game winning streak, Philadelphia has 14 takeaways and has held their opponents to just 15 Points-Per-Game. Since rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup for a base nickel defense, this unit has been outstanding. There usually is a learning curve when players first begin working for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but his concepts in his first year with the Eagles are beginning to gel — and he is unlocking the talents of the young players drafted from Georgia that had been underachieving a bit until now. After ranking tenth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders through Week 10, they have since risen to number one in that category. Philly lead the league by giving up only 172 passing Yards-Per-Game and they rank seventh in rushing defense by giving up 102.2 rushing YPG. They are one of just four defenses since 2010 to have not given up more than 2500 passing yards and 1500 rushing yards after Week 14. The Eagles have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a road favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Washington’s defense continues to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They have held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders have since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards. Their defense thrives at home where they are only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they given up when playing on the road. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes against the Saints but for only 226 yards which was the second most passing yards he has thrown for in the last six games. The narrative that the league catches up to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes in the second half of the season — and that he fails to adapt — continues to see evidence supporting it grow. When Daniels faced this Eagles defense for Thursday Night Football on November 14th, he only threw for 191 yards and generated just 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt which was his second-lowest mark in any game he finished this season. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Washington has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, in Quinn’s head coaching career, his teams have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total as a home dog — and his teams have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won the first meeting with the Commanders by a 26-18 score last month — and Washington has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Quinn’s teams have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset win against SMU as a 2.5-point underdog in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Texas (11-2) had won five games in a row before their 22-19 upset loss in overtime against Georgia as a 3-point favorite on December 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Sarkisian has reigned in his offensive play-calling as the season has moved on — this appears to be a reflection of his thoughts on quarterback Quinn Ewers. Since his 43 attempts in the Longhorns' first meeting with the Bulldogs on October 13th, Ewers did not throw more than 37 times in his next five games — and he averaged only 31 attempts per game during that stretch. But in the rematch against Georgia, Ewers was asked to throw the ball 46 times because the running game did not get any traction against the Bulldogs’ defensive front. Texas only gained 31 rushing yards from 28 carries. Ewers did throw for 358 yards but he also threw two interceptions. He has nine interceptions on the season. In the overtime session, Sarkisian was dialing up safe but frustratingly ineffective fade routes — and that seemed to be indicative of a lack of trust in Ewers. Too often, Ewers floats his throws. He also struggles to throw the ball to make his receivers separate and get open. These weaknesses in his game limit the viable options Sarkisian can use in his playbook. Ewers lacks mobility as well. It is telling that the Longhorns did not score more than 20 points in three of their last four games. But their defense remains elite. They limited Georgia to just 277 yards of offense. The 22 points they gave up (after overtime) were the third most points they have surrendered all season. They held ten of their opponents to 17 points or less. For the season, they only gave up 249.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 12.5 Points-Per-Game. Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Clemson only gained 326 yards of offense in their upset win against SMU. The Tigers' offense has hit a wall when facing top-level competition. In their two games against SEC opponents, Georgia and South Carolina, they only scored 17 combined points. They failed to score more than 24 points on five occasions this season.  Clemson generated 454.9 total YPG which resulted in 35.5. PPG — but those numbers drop by -70.9 YPG and -8.2 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow ACC rival. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Mustangs — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Clemson’s defense remains very good led by several talented sophomores. They held eight of their opponents to no more than 20 points. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns score 33.6 PPG — and Clemson has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. Texas has played 5 straight Unders against teams who score 31 or more PPG. 25* CFB Playoff First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-5) has won four games in a row after their 31-13 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-17 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers had averaged 27 Points-Per-Game during a five-game stretch until running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending torn MCL injury. Los Angeles has since scored only 17 points in each of their three games since losing him for the year. They generated only 206 yards of offense last week in their blowout loss to the Buccaneers. In his last four games, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked once in every nine dropbacks — and he is now dealing with an ankle injury that is slowing him down. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Los Angeles should bounce back on defense after getting carved by Baker Mayfield in explosive plays. They are still only giving up 17.6 Points-Per-Game which is tied for the best mark in the league. They rank ninth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less between games. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Denver only gained 193 yards last week despite scoring 31 points. One of their touchdowns came from a 50-yard fumble recovery. Rookie Bo Nix only threw for 130 yards in that game — and he has five interceptions in his last two weeks after throwing three picks against the Colts. Now the Broncos' offense will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin who is out with an injury — and head coach Sean Payton has been relying on him as his go-to back in crunch time lately. Much of the success of the offense this season against the bottom-tiered defenses in the league. In their five games against teams that rank in the top 13 in Defensive DVOA, they are only scoring 13.2 PPG. Their offensive numbers are propped up by scoring 30 PPG in their other nine games against the bottom 19 teams in Defensive DVOA. Denver’s defense has been outstanding this season as they lead the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. They have given up the fewest explosive plays this season — and their 14.8% stuff rate of opposing rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage is the fifth-best mark in the league. The Broncos are surrendering only 17.6 PPG — and Harbaugh-coached NFL teams have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 19.0 PPG. Denver has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, in Payton’s head coaching career, his teams have played 13 of their 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home against divisional rivals. They have played 12 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against division opponents when favored. These two teams have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-11) has won three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests after their 110-102 win against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the NBA Cup on Saturday. Oklahoma City (20-5) has won five games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 111-96 victory against Houston as a 5.5-point favorite in their Semifinal match in the NBA Cup on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks stepped up their play on defense against the Hawks by holding them to 42.7% shooting. Head coach Doc Rivers has this group playing better on the defensive end of the court. While they rank 13th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rise to eighth in the league in that metric over their last 15 games. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, they will have a size edge in this contest. With $500K on the line in a game that will not count in the regular season standings, look for another strong effort on defense from this team. It is telling that Milwaukee had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total away from home against teams from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City held the Rockets to just 36.5% shooting on Saturday. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will not make it easy on the Milwaukee shooters. They give up the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions — and the Bucks rank just 26th in the league in creating points in the paint. The Thunder also does a great job in defending the pick-and-roll which Milwaukee leans heavily on with Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — they give up the fewest 3-point attempts in those situations. They also surrender the fifth fewest made 3-pointers in the NBA. Oklahoma City wants to make this a track meet and generate scoring opportunities in transition — but they are not very efficient in those situations as they rank just 23rd in effective Field Goal percentage (eFG). Rivers knows this and will have his team focus on protecting the basketball and making this a half-court game. The Thunder rank just 14th in eFG when playing in the half-court. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total following a straight-up win. This is their third game since December 8h — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home. And in their last 8 games as an underdog or a favorite of up to 5.5 points, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: In the knockout games in the NBA Cup this season, the average combined score has been only 208.9 points — and all five games played on a neutral court in Las Vegas in the Semifinals or Finals of this tournament going back to last year have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-13 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 42-21 win against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears gained only 162 yards of offense last week against the 49ers’ defense. Interim head coach Thomas Brown simply has too much on his plate after first being elevated to be the interim offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron before taking over the head coaching duties when Matt Eberflus was sacked. His primary responsibility should be to prepare his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams since he is the future of the franchise. Chicago has scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. On the road, they are generating only 283.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Williams averages only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt when on the road which ranks 30th in the league. The Vikings rank in the top-ten in deploying zone defenses against pass under defensive coordinator Brian Flores — and Williams ranks 30th in Passer Rating when facing zone defenses. Williams is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season after getting sacked seven times last week — and now this offensive line has to try to protect him against a Minnesota defense that blitzes almost half the time in passing situations. To compound matters, center Ryan Bates and running back Roschon Johnson are out tonight with injuries — and running back D’Andre Swift is questionable. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against divisional rivals. Minnesota is only allowing 18.5 PPG — and their defense ranks number one according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the Vikings rushing attack only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per play — and their offensive line has taken a step back since Cam Robinson replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 34 games played in Prime-Time, they have played 22 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams with a 30-27 victory in Chicago as a 3-point favorite on November 24th. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th. Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Seattle enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Packers average 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams generating 7.0 or more YPA. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Geno Smith has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road. Smith is completing 71.5% of his passes with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions on the road with a 96.9 Passer Rating — but when at home, he is completing 67.8% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and ten interceptions with an 84.5 Passer Rating. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (75) and the Dallas Stars (76). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (14-14-2) has lost two of their three games after their 4-3 loss against San Jose on Thursday. Dallas (17-11-0) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-1 loss against Nashville on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars are underachieving with their scoring attack this season. They have failed to score more than two goals in five of their last six games. They are only scoring 2.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Their defense and goaltender Jake Oettinger are keeping them competitive in the Western Conference. They had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before their loss to the Predators. Dallas has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their previous game on home ice — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after playing their previous game at home. They are only giving up 1.8 Goals-Per-Game on home at the American Airlines Center. The Stars have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Oettinger has a 14-7-0 record this season with a 2.46 Goals-Against-Average and a .911 save percentage. He has played far better at home where he has a 2.08 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 12 games at home as opposed to his 3.02 GAA and a .889 save percentage in nine starts on the road. Oettinger has a +4.1 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark so far this season. St. Louis has been playing better defensively since Jim Montgomery took over as their head coach on November 24th. In their eight games since, they have given up only 20 goals for a 2.5 Goals Allowed per Game mark. But the Blues are only scoring 2.7 Goals-Per-Game this season. St. Louis has played 34 of their last 49 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 5 of their 7 games this season Under the Total after losing at home in their last game. Jordan Binnington is between the pipes tonight. He has an 8-11-0 record with a 2.98 GAA and a .896 save percentage — but he has been better away from home this season. While he has a 3.31 GAA and a .882 save percentage in ten starts at home, those numbers improve to a 2.70 GAA and a .907 save percentage in his 11 starts on the road. Binnington has a solid +2.1 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark so far this season. The Blues have played 30 of their last 49 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher — and they have played 16 of their last 24 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game and outshooting them by +3.0 Shots-Per-Game. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. They have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams who outshoot their opponents by +3.0 or more Shots-Per-Game including four of those five occasions this season — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total against teams who outshoot their opponents by +3.0 or more Shots-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these Central Division rivals this season — and they have played 9 of their last 11 clashes Under the Total. The Blues are scoring only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game against division opponents this season  — and the Stars are only scoring 2.7 Goals-Per-Game against division rivals. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (75) and the Dallas Stars (76). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. Los Angeles finally has a healthy offensive line to give quarterback Matthew Stafford more time to find wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since Week Eight, the Rams ranks third in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play after ranking in the bottom half of the league before that with their wide receiver room not at full strength. They are scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven games and have scored at least 26 points in four of those games. But Los Angeles is also giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. They have seen 51.7 combined points scored on average in their last seven games — and they have seen 57 combined points scored on average in their last four contests. In a game between two teams desperate for the victory tonight, both teams should score (at least) in the 20s and playing with scoring urgency in the fourth quarter. The Rams' defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when not playing with extended rest — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total when not playing with extended rest. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. But the 49ers defense has struggled lately by allowing 35 and 38 points before holding the Bears to 13 points. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable to play with a hip and oblique injury. San Francisco has played five games against teams who rank in the top in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are allowing 30.4 PPG against those five opponents with each of those teams scoring at least 24 points. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a home favorite of up to seven points. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in December — and the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-3) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 34-24 upset loss at home against Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite last Thursday. Army (10-1) rebounded from their loss against Notre Dame two weeks ago with a 29-24 win against UTSA as a 6-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall knows how to prepare his teams to defend against the triple option offense. In his three games against service academy teams going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Troy, his teams have given up only nine combined points with two shutout wins on the road. That mark includes a 35-0 victory at Navy three weeks ago in a game where they held the Midshipmen to only 100 rushing yards from 35 carries. Not only has his defense prepared for the triple option recently, but the coaching staff can use that experience to adjust for this contest. Army generates 312.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Sumrall’s teams have played all 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Sumrall’s teams have also played 10 of their 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 4 of their 5 games on the road Under the Total when laying up to seven points. The Green Wave holds their opponents to 3.72 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank seventh in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 29th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They rank in the top 15 in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed — and they lead in the nation in Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Rate Allowed after thwarting 16 of the 23 fourth down attempts by their opponents this season. Tulane is holding their opponents to just 304.7 total YPG which has resulted in just 18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave run the ball on offense as they have the 10th lowest pass rate in the FBS. Tulane has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Army ranks eighth in the nation by allowing only 15.1 PPG — and they are limiting their opponents to 295.5 YPG. The Black Knights have played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. And while the Green Wave averages 214.3 rushing YPG, Army has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 310 YPG. Furthermore, the Black Knights have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their 18 games under head coach Jeff Monken against teams winning 75% or more of their games. And in their last 15 games in December, Army has played 10 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not be conducive to passing the football with the temperatures dropping into the 20s and winds at 9 miles per hour. As it is, Army scores 32.7 PPG — and Tulane has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. The Green Wave averages 6.7 Yards-Per-Attempt and 430.7 YPG —  and the Black Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 425 or more YPG and 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The biggest storyline for this NFC North showdown is the injury situation. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. I do expect the Lions to keep scoring. They lead the NFL in Points Per Drive and Pass Success Rate. They are fourth in Expected Points Added Per Play. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 121.7 Passer Rating in his last ten games — and he has always thrived when playing indoors. I expect this game to be a barn-burner between two good teams. Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Lions have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. In their last 28 games at home, Detroit is scoring 32.3 Points-Per-Game — and those games generated 54.6 combined PPG. The Packers are scoring 26.5 PPG with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG — and the Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who outscore their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Green Bay is missing two defensive starters with cornerback Jaire Alexander and middle linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out tonight with injuries. That hurts a defense that already ranks 19th on the road in Points Allowed Per Drive. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games over the Total after a win at home. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an earlier loss in the season — and the Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This was a tricky one to handicap since my initial take was to lean to the Over since both these teams tend to play in higher-scoring games. But both the weather and injuries play a big role in assessing the over/under number for tonight’s game. It will be cold with the temperatures dropping into the mid-20s. There is a 77% chance of precipitation so some snow is likely — but snow often helps the offense since it impairs the ability of defenders to react to playmakers. Dan Marino was quoted as saying: “If it’s snowing, I’m throwing.” Wind can be a problem. The afternoon forecast for this evening projects winds at 11 miles per hour which is not too bad. But wind gusts of up to 29 MPH are also expected — and that is a problem. The biggest argument that convinced me to endorse the Under is the injury situation. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to play tonight — but I do not like what is going on with the mysterious shoulder injury that kept him out of last week’s game. He may not be close to 100%. The 49ers are also without two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Brooks out. The loss of Williams is devastating as he is the best left tackle in the world. In the two games Purdy played without Williams last season, he had two touchdown passes and four interceptions — and the Niners only scored 17 points in both games. Their offense has already been slowed down by the season-ending injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Running back Christian McCaffrey is back after missing the first eight games of the season — but he does not appear to be at full strength as he is generating only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry and has yet to score a touchdown. The Niners are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game since McCaffrey returned — and they have scored no more than 18 points in three of their last five games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is dealing with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, with the biggest loss being Nick Bosa. Given all this, I expect Shanahan to shorten this game by running the football and leaning heavily on McCaffrey to carry the offense. Shanahan has not found himself in a situation like this often — and the past results are telling. In his career as the head coach for San Francisco, there have been 23 games when the 49ers were on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points — and 16 of those games finished Under the Total. The 49ers have played 16 of their 24 games in the Shanahan era Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, in their 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points under Shanahan, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Buffalo is dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable. Their defense may be bolstered with the return of linebacker Matt Milano who has yet to play this season — he is listed as questionable. The Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last six games. They are allowing only 286.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. San Francisco is averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 384.8 total YPG this season. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who generate 5.65 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect the 49ers to rely on their ground game which generates 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry against a vulnerable Bills defense that surrenders 4.78 YPC. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against these teams. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 34-15 win against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-10 victory against San Francisco on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather will not be conducive for offensive firepower tonight. Temperatures are expected in the 20s in Green Bay during the game with the wind chill dipping into the single digits. Winds will be around 15 miles per hour with gusts eclipsing 20 MPH. With wind like that, the passing game and field goal attempts will be impacted. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold in his career — he has lost all four of his starts when the temperature is below 40 degrees. He has completed only 54.5% of his passes in those four games with four touchdown passes and five interceptions — and he has a low 68.2 Passer Rating in those games. In the three games in cold weather where wind was also a factor, Miami only scored 39 combined points. While the weather is getting much of the headlines for tonight’s game, I think the defenses for both teams deserve more attention in this non-conference showdown. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 19 points in three straight games. They held the Patriots to just 269 total yards last week. While they rank 11th this season in Expected Points Added per play, they rise to fifth in that metric in the last three weeks. They rank fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt this season. They have improved in stopping the run as well. They have held opposing rushers to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Five. Overall, they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 21.5 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 19.0 PPG. Miami has played 4 of their 5 games on the road this season Under the Total. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an AFC East rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a game against a division rival. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Green Bay held the 49ers to just 241 total yards last week. They have only given up 29 combined points in their last two contests. At home, the Packers are holding their guests to just 285.7 total YPG which is resulting in just 18.3 PPG. Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense this season — and they have held their last five opponents to just 190 passing YPG. They also lead the NFL with 22 takeaways. Don’t underestimate quarterback Jordan Love’s discomfort in the cold — he is not Brett Favre when it comes to thriving in these conditions. He has a 2-2 record straight-up in his four starts under 40 degrees. Love only completed 13 of 23 passes last week for 163 yards. He ranks 32nd in the league by completing only 61.8% of his passes — and he ranks 32nd in Passer Rating on third down. To compound matters, he will be without wide receiver Romeo Doubs tonight due to injury. Head coach Matt LaFleur has adapted to Love’s accuracy (and interception) issues by leaning on the run and embracing a ball-control offense. The Packers rank 30th in the NFL in pass-rate versus the league expectation — and they rank 29th in pace of play. Green Bay has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Thanksgiving night game has seen 11 of the last 17 games finish Under the Total by an average of 4.2 PPG — and in the last 11 Thanksgiving night games with the Total set at 43 or higher, 8 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Dallas Mavericks (554). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7) has won five of their last six games after their 145-118 upset win at Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Dallas (10-8) has won five of their last six contests after their 129-119 upset victory at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks scored the most points in the regular season that did not go into overtime since 1980. After nailing 60.9% of their shots against the Nuggets, it is reasonable to expect the Regression Gods to appear — but the drop-off should not be significant because this New York scoring attack is cooking. The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns is opening up scoring lanes for his teammates. They have many scorers who can create their own shot. O.G. Anunoby scored 40 points on Monday — he is scoring 19.1 Points-Per-Game from 52.4% shooting and a 42.2% mark from behind the arc. Jalen Brunson is finding the right balance between being a scorer and a distributor. They have made at least 56.0% of their shots in three of their last four games — and they have scored 134 or more points in three of their last four games. Overall, the Knicks rank second with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.9. Only Cleveland and New York rank in the top-three in the league in both 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. They rank third in midrange shooting. They also maximize their possessions by leading the NBA with the lowest turnover margin. So, yes, I think the high-scoring is sustainable — and they have scored 123 or more points in five of their last seven games. The Knicks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. This is their fourth straight game on the road and third game since last Friday — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing the third game on the road in the last five games. They have also played 7 of their 10 games on the road Over the Total this season. Dallas made 50.0% of their shots against the Hawks on Monday — it was the third time in their last four games that they shot 50% or better from the field. They have scored at least 118 points in five straight games. But they have also given up 119 or more points in four of their last five contests. They are putting up these offensive numbers despite being without Luka Doncic has missed the last three games due to injury. Head coach Jason Kidd has his team playing a faster tempo without Doncic who prefers a slower style of play to set up his isolation game on offense. In their last three games, they have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.3 — but they also have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 112.8. Naji Marshall has been a pleasant surprise by scoring 20 or more points in all three of those games. Dallas will want to continue to push the pace tonight with the hopes of creating switches so Kyrie Irving is being defended by Brunson. On the other hand, the Knicks will push the pace as well to create the opposite matchup with Brunson being guarded by Irving. The Mavericks are playing for the third time since Sunday — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four games. They have also played all 7 of their games this season Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are outscoring their opponents by +5.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Knicks have played 8 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total against teams who are getting outscored by +3.0 or more PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Dallas Mavericks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-2) has won six games in a row after their 26-18 victory against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite back on November 14th. Los Angeles (5-5) has won four of their last five games with their 28-22 victory at New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Commanders to just 264 yards of offense last week. They lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.1 total Yards-Per-Game. It often takes some time for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to get his units up to speed in his first year with a new group — but the young but talented Philly defense is learning quickly. Since their bye week in Week Six, they lead the NFL by allowing only 13.8 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up just 211.3 total YPG. The Eagles lead the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game during that span. They have also surrendered the fewest explosive plays of both 10 or more and 20 or more yards. Their defense also ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN’s numbers — and Los Angeles is still dealing with injuries on their offensive line. Now coming off extra time since playing the Thursday game last week, Fangio should have his defense rested and ready for the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford offense. On the road, Philadelphia has held their home hosts to just 270.5 total YPG which has resulted in only 16.7 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Los Angeles is another team that has steadily improved on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week Three, the Rams' defense ranks third in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. They play better defense at home at SoFi Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 315.8 total YPG which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. While Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL by allowing 2.8 points per opponent drive, they improve to fifth in the league when playing at home as they hold their opponents to just 1.8 points per drive. The Rams also rank third in the NFL with a pressure rate on the quarterback in 38% of their opponent’s dropbacks — and this is an area where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vulnerable. Hurts averages 9.7 YPA when throwing in a clean pocket — but that number drops to just 5.7 YPA when under pressure which ranks 25th in the NFL. And while the Eagles' offensive line has the reputation of still being an elite unit without their now-retired center Jason Kelce, they are allowing Hurts to be pressured in 42% of his dropbacks. The Philly offense has been elevated with the acquisition of running back Saquon Barkley. They average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry as a team which is generating a league-leading 174.3 rushing YPG. But the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 18-16 upset win as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (2-8) has lost two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 35-14 upset loss at New Orleans on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I know it is ugly to invest in the Under when the number drops into the 30s — but that is kind of the point. The public likes to bet the Over as it is — and banking on the Over looks even easier when the number is this low. Keep in mind, since 2020 the Under is 35-15-1 in NFL games when the Total is set no higher than 37. Now I am not a zombie to empirical trends like this. For me, it is a starting point rather than an ending point. When then considering the weather forecast tonight, the case strengthens for expecting a very low-scoring game. There is a 90% chance for precipitation with the temperature dropping into the 30s — so even snow is a possibility. These conditions likely mean conservative game plans from both teams. For the Steelers, that means plenty of running the football and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much and risk turning the ball over. As it is, this has been the approach with Wilson under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh is passing the ball 7% below baseline NFL expectations given the down-and-distance situation — and they are passing the ball 11% less on first down relative to NFL expectations. Wilson has been successful with his moonball deep passes to wide receiver George Pickens — but there are a few reasons to suspect this connection will be stymied tonight. The weather will make it more difficult to complete long bombs. Pickens will also likely struggle against Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward who ranks second of 117 qualifying cornerbacks by holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 44% completion percentage when he is targeted. The Steelers are scoring more since Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback — but the offense has not been efficient. Pittsburgh ranks just 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per play with Wilson with the offense too often simply boom-or-bust with his moon shots. They rank outside the top-15 in both EPA per pass attempt and EPA per rushing attempt — so even the notion that Wilson’s play-action game has unlocked running back Najee Harris is disputed by the deeper analytics. Furthermore, Wilson has not been effective in the Red Zone — he has completed only 29% of his passes inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Not only is that his lowest completion percentage in the Red Zone in his career, but it is almost 20% lower than his number last year in Denver which was one of the reasons that Sean Payton concluded that it would be better to pay him $50 million to play elsewhere. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Ravens — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. Cleveland has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games. While the offense has been better since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson who suffered a season-ending injury, the former Florida State and Tampa Bay quarterback has not fared well when playing in cold weather. In his five career starts when the weather was below 50 degrees, his teams have scored only 15.3 Points-Per-Game and never more than 20 points. Now Winston faces a Steel Curtain defense that is holding their home hosts to just 279.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.6 Points-Per-Game. The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Even with the low-number, the evidence leads the Under tonight — especially since either one of these teams could struggle to reach double-digits. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals — and the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-10) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 104-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Dallas (7-7) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 121-119 upset win at Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks were without Luka Doncic against the Thunder — but they did get back P.J. Washington in that game who is one of their best defensive players who they were without due to injury during their four-game losing streak. Dallas nailed 11 of their 27 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage — and it was the first time they shot better than 33% from 3-point range in their last seven games. They were also very fortunate to get to the free throw line 36 times from which they scored 30 of their points. The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Doncic is questionable again tonight with his right knee contusion — and head coach Jason Kidd may elect to rest him against the M*A*S*H unit that is this Pelicans team right now. For the purposes of this play, I am assuming Doncic goes — but I will be more than content if he does not play. Dallas scores -5.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the court this season — and they allow +0.4 more points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. The Mavs rank eighth in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.0 — and they improve to third in the league when playing at home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.8. Dallas has played 8 of their 10 games at home Under the Total this season — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have also played 8 of their 10 games Under the Total this season when favored. New Orleans does not have healthy guards on their active roster right now. Overall, they are without Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, DeJounte Murray, Jose, Alvarado, Herb Jones, and Jordan Hawkins. Head coach Willie Green’s response to the lack of ball-handlers and play-makers is to slow the pace down. They are averaging only 93.70 adjusted possessions per game in their last five games which is the slowest rate in the NBA. Brandon Ingram is the primary ball-handler with the burden of the offense on his shoulders. They rank 29th in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 102.8 in their last five games. But the play of their defense has improved with the slower pace. While they rank 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 117.2 this season, they rank 12th with a 112.2 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last five games. Their last three games have seen no more than 203 combined points — and two of those three games saw no more than 195 combined points scored. The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have seen the Under go 20-10-1 in their 31 games as a double-digit favorite with Kidd as their head coach including 9 Unders in their last 12 games at home when laying ten or more points. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-31 loss at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog back on November 7th. Los Angeles (6-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-17 win against Tennessee as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred grinding style of play that emphasizes the Chargers rushing attack usually dictates the tone of the game. Their games are averaging just 33.8 combined points scored per game — and the 44 combined points scored last week was their highest combined point total of the season. They rank just 20th in the league in Big Plays. The commitment to run the football has helped keep their talented defense fresh — and first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continues to be outstanding coaching up the defense after serving in the same capacity for Harbaugh the previous two seasons at Michigan. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 13.1 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up only three rushing touchdowns. This defense ranks third in the league in the following categories: 3.4 Sacks-Per-Game; Adjusted Net Passing Yards Allowed; Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They rank fifth in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They rank sixth by holding their opponents to just 302.1 total YPG. Nick Bosa’s name was removed from the injury report this week — and while Khalil Mack is listed as questionable, he has declared that he expects to play. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win at home. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing their last game on a Thursday. The Bengals' defense has been playing better lately as they had held four straight opponents to 314.8 YPG before their rematch with the Ravens last week. Trey Hendrickson is expected to play tonight despite dealing with a neck injury. Don’t be surprised if they slow down the Chargers’ ground game since they rank sixth in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Chargers are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 PPG — and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. Los Angeles allows their opponents to generate 4.7 YPC — and Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are scoring 27.0 PPG and giving up 26.2 PPG — and the Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who allow 24 or more PPG. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only gained 242 yards of offense last week with rookie phenom Jayden Daniels only completing 17 of 34 passes for just 202 yards. He gained just five yards on the ground on three carries and no scrambles. One dynamic I have been on alert for is how this Washington offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would continue to develop in the second half of the season. Kingsbury earned the reputation as the head coach in Arizona as someone who did not continue to innovate and adapt in the second half of the season. Defensive head coaches catchup to his concepts — and his Cardinals’ teams saw a reduction in offensive production in the second half of the season. Daniels is only averaging 195.5 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last two games — and he has thrown for no more than 219 yards in six of his nine starts. But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. His teams have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in Weeks 10 through 13. Philadelphia held the Cowboys to only 2.6 Yards-Per-Play last week which resulted in just 146 yards of offense. The young Eagles defense appears to be maturing under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have not allowed more than 23 points in five straight games — and they have held four of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. Philly enjoys the third lowest opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they rank 11th in the NFL Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. And while the Commanders generate 153.5 rushing YPG, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the Milwaukee Bucks (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (5-7) has won two of their last three games after their 123-121 upset win in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog last night against Miami in the NBA Cup. Milwaukee (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 99-85 victory against Toronto as a 9-point favorite last night in their opening game in the NBA Cup.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons are challenged with the dreaded back-to-back which requires travel to Milwaukee today — and they enter this game undermanned. Both Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Simone Fontecchi are expected to suit up tonight. Losing Hardaway in particular takes away one of their best scoring threats from the outside. As it is, Detroit has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. The Pistons allowed the Heat to make 46.5% of their shots last night which was actually their worst defensive effort in their last six games. Consistent effort and better play on the defensive end of the court have been the primary focuses of first-year head coach J.B. Bickerstaff taking over a team that was too often lax in both areas last season. Detroit ranks a solid 14th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to fifth in the league in that metric in their last six games. In their five games on the road, the Pistons are holding their home hosts to just 44.9% shooting which is resulting in only 102.8 Points-Per-Game. Detroit has played all 5 of their road games this season Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. However, scoring remains an issue for this club. They rank 20th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and on the road, they are making only 45.6% of their shots which is resulting in just 103.4 PPG. Milwaukee shot a season-low 40.4% from the field last night and they will be without Damian Lillard tonight as he recovers from a concussion. The Bucks will miss the 26.0 PPG and 6.6 Assists-Per-Game he is generating this season. The Bucks offense is struggling — they rank 21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Too often, the movement is not as crisp as it could be and the effort has been less than 100%. Bobby Portis’ decline symbolizes their problems. He is scoring only 12.5 PPG this season from 45.4% shooting and a 26.7% clip from behind the arc are all the lowest marks in his five seasons with the team. But after starting the season with only one win in their first six games, they are starting to play better in their last four contests with the biggest improvement being from their defensive effort. After holding Boston to 40.7% shooting in their previous game, they held the Raptors to 34.9% shooting last night. They rank 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season — but in their last four contests, they rank fifth in the league while holding three of their four opponents to no better than 42.9% shooting. All four of those games finished Under the Total — and Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 4 of their 5 games at home this season Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 14 games against each other Under the Total when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with UUnder the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the Milwaukee Bucks (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have a good young defense that is underrated and getting healthier. They lead the NFL in sacks, hits on the quarterback, and interceptions. They rank second in the league with a pressure rate of 29.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Since returning from their bye week in Week Seven, they rank second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 339.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Rams have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. Miami is without right tackle Austin Jackson — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision with a wrist injury he re-aggravated on Friday. He says he “will try” to play tonight — but the signs are not looking good. Even if he takes the field, he will probably not be 100% since catching the football requires using one’s wrist. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expectation. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road after allowing 30 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Rams are giving up 360.1 total YPG, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games under head coach Sean McVay. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In the three games that Flacco has played this season, the Colts have scored 81 combined points for a 27.0 Points-Per-Game average. Those three games saw an average of 53 combined points scored. For the season, he has seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He was never very mobile — so there could be concern about him facing the blitz-heavy Vikings defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But Flacco brings plenty of savvy with him — and he knows he has to get the ball out early and attack the blitz. He is averaging only one sack per 21 throws this season which is much better than Richardson’s sack rate despite his great mobility. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed. They should also get plenty of production from running back Jonathan Taylor who returned from his three-game absence by rushing for 105 yards on 20 carries. The Minnesota run defense has been exposed lately as they surrendered 250 rushing yards in their last two games. The Colts' defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have suffered two straight upset losses, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. This Flores defense is showing signs of vulnerability lately having surrendered 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Vikings are giving up 263.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 235 or more passing Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 28.7 PPG at home this season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as a home favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans held the Colts to just 303 yards of offense in their three-point victory last week. While quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention for this team, the Houston defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans is outstanding. The Texans rank second in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. General manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level on that side of the ball. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair came over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgraded Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. So far this season, Houston already has 27 sacks — and they have another 54 hits on the quarterback and 52 tackles for loss. Now they face the aging Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 13 times in his last five games while taking another 39 hits to the quarterback over that span. The Texans are allowing only 280.3 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG in their four games on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. Now the Texans go back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. To compound matters, Stroud will be without his top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. The Texans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York held the Patriots to only 247 yards last week but discovered another way to lose. The Jets are generating only 310.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.8 Points-Per-Game. But the New York defense is giving up only 286.8 total YPG — and they are holding their visitors to just 228.0 YPG at home which is resulting in their guests scoring only 12.0 PPG. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing at home. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored — and Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-0) remained undefeated this season after their 28-18 upset victory at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-5) has lost three games in a row after their 20-15 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the 49ers’ offense to joust 310 yards. But the Kansas City offense only managed 329 yards of offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes of that game. Patrick Mahomes only passed for 154 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The team did acquire wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this week which will help — but he will not immediately replace the production of injured wideout Rashee Rice. The defense is carrying this team. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to 306.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 18 points in four straight contests. They rank fourth in DVOA defense using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and now he faces a limited Raiders offense that he prepares against twice a season. Kansas City has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, while the Chiefs have played four straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks Five through Nine. Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in three straight games as they learn to live life without wide receiver Davante Adams. They are scoring just 15.3 PPG in those last three games. For the season, the Raiders are generating just 296.7 total YPG which is resulting in 17.7 PPG. Their offense ranks 29th in DVOA. With second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell injured, it will be Gardner Minshew back under center — he has a career-low 73.2 Quarterback Rating this season. But the Las Vegas defense has been solid under head coach Antonio Pierce. They held the Rams to just 259 yards last week — and they are giving up only 316.9 total YPG this season. Pierce knows this Chiefs offense — he was the interim coach last Christmas when the Raiders upset Kansas City by a 20-14 score. Minshew was responsible for four turnovers last week in a game that Las Vegas ended with a -3 net turnover margin — and Las Vegas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Raiders are giving up 26.1 PPG — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders against teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Kansas City is generating 350.3 YPG which is resulting in 24.3 PPG — and Las Vegas has played 4 straight Unders against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who generate 350 or more YPG. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Lastly, KC has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings surrendered 31 points last week which was the second time all season they have given up more than 17 points this season. When not playing the Lions or Green Bay, then Minnesota is only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense ranks number one in the NFL in both Run Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. On the road, the Vikings are surrendering just 319.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. Los Angeles only generated 259 yards last week with one of their touchdowns coming from a 33-yard fumble recovery. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). But the team did not activate starting tackle Joe Noteboom from the injured list — and the porous offensive line has played a big role in holding back their offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 114 throws. They have scored more than 20 points only once this season. But the defense continues to improve — especially since Week Five after cornerback Tre’Davious White was benched. The Rams held Green Bay to just 323 total yards two weeks ago before limiting the Raiders to 317 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total. And while the Vikings are allowing 260.8 passing YPG, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 235 or more passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). THE SITUATION: UTEP (1-6) snapped their six-game losing streak to start the season with a 30-21 upset victory as a 7-point underdog last Wednesday. Louisiana Tech (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after a 33-30 loss in overtime at New Mexico State last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent going into their bye week at the end of last month. Third-year head coach Sonny Cumbie took advantage of that reset by benching junior Jack Turner and turning to redshirt freshman Evan Bullock at quarterback. Louisiana Tech responded by scoring 48 points in a 27-point victory at home against Middle Tennessee. Their 30 points were not enough to stave off the upset loss to the Aggies last week — but the Bulldogs have played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss in their last game. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games in October Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Conference USA rivals. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. On paper, the Bulldogs are playing much better defense than they did last season. They have held four of their six opponents to 23 or fewer points — and they rank 19th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. But they have benefited from an easy strength of schedule so far with four of their opponents ranked 117th or worse in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating system. UTEP generated 372 yards and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week in their nine-point upset win against the Golden Panthers. The Miners go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is generating 254.5 passing Yards-Per-Game this season — and UTEP has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. The Miners are giving up 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bulldogs have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total  with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: New York (99-70) had won four games in a row before their 7-5 loss in ten innings on the road against the Guardians on Thursday. Cleveland (96-73) had lost the first two games in this series before that victory yesterday to make this a 2-1 series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games at home. Williams gets the ball tonight after posting a disappointing 3-10 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 16 starts in the regular season. The right-hander posted a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 starts in his rookie campaign last season — but an elbow injury set him back and played a significant role in his sophomore slump. He has not pitched since September 22nd so getting almost the month off may help him regain his rookie form tonight. The deeper sabermetrics suggested he should have seen better results. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.14. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.19 and 4.12 moving forward from his 2024 numbers. Cleveland has played 12 of their 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record with Williams on the mound. They have also played 11 of their 17 games Under the Total with Williams starting in a night game. He faces a Yankees team that ranked 18th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York has played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total on the road. They counter with Gil who had a 15-7 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 29 starts in the regular season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts as compared to his 3.57 ERA in 15 starts at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when Gil is starting against a team winning 54-62% of their games. He faces a Guardians team that ranks 21st and 16th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Both of the starting pitchers tonight will get pulled early if they are not effective — and both bullpens are outstanding. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. New York’s bullpen has a 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in their last seven games. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Detroit (90-78) had won two games in a row in this best-of-five series before their 5-4 loss at home in Game Four on Thursday. Cleveland (94-71) forced this climactic fifth game with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have only scored ten combined runs in their four games in this series. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. The Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games on the road, the Under is 4-0-1. The Total is set at 6 because the likely American League Cy Young Award winner takes the mound in this one. Skubal had an 18-4 record in the regular season with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.92  WHIP in 31 starts. While the deeper sabermetrics rarely project even lower ERAs than ones in that range, his underlying numbers remain quite good. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.70. In his two starts in this postseason, he has not given up an earned run with a 0.62 WHIP. In his last seven starts including his two in these playoffs, the left-hander has a 1.01 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. In those 44 2/3 innings, he has struck out 49 batters and has only issued three walks (not a typo). This game was moved up to the afternoon with rain expected in Cleveland later this evening — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Skubal on the mound for a day game. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after allowing four or more runs in their last game. The Guardians return home where the Under is 14-1-1 in their last 16 games at Progressive Field. Boyd gets the ball after pitching 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in his start in Game Two of this series. In his eight starts in the regular season after coming off the injured list for most of the season, the left-hander has a 2-2 record along with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His xERA was 3.10 in those eight starts. He was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in four starts as opposed to his 3.26 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in four starts on the road. His teams in his career have played 9 of his last 12 starts at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog with him on the mound. Furthermore, Boyd had a 1.74 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in his two starts in the daytime this season. He faces a Tigers team that ranked 28th in MLB in the regular season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: With everything on the line in this fifth game and the off day on Friday, both managers will have full disposal of every pitcher on the roster (including the starting pitchers) for this one — and they will be throwing as hard as possible (now more than ever). Cleveland has played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: New York (96-69) has won three of their last four games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (89-78) looks to avoid elimination tonight by trailing this best-of-seven series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 10-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 15 games after a win. The Under is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams from the AL Central. Cole gets the ball looking to build on his 8-5 record in the regular season along with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts. He looks to bounce back from a subpar effort in Game One of this series when he allowed four runs (three earned runs) in five innings of work. The right-hander surrendered one earned run or less in four of his last five and seven of their last nine contests. In his last ten starts in the regular season, he had a 2.25 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP to regain his form as one of the best starting pitchers in MLB after dealing with injuries earlier in the year. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with Cole on the mound and the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Cole is making his 16th start in the postseason tonight after posing a 3.07 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in those 91 playoff innings. Kansas City has played 48 of their last 75 games Under the Total after a loss — including eight Unders in their last nine games following a loss. They have played 22 of their last 37 games at home Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. Furthermore, the Royals have played 24 of their last 37 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when listed in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Wacha who has a 13-8 record along with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. After an up-and-down start, the right-hander has posted a 2.72 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in his last 22 starts in the regular season. He has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.89 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP  in 14 starts as opposed to his 3.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have played 4 straight Unders when he is their starting pitcher trailing in a playoff series.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have scored 11 runs apiece in the first three games of this series to continue hitting slumps last month. Kansas City ranks 29th and 30th in MLB in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York ranks 18th in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers (after ranking in the top-ten or better in both those categories in every prior month for the rest of the season). 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (96-69) looks to avoid elimination and force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five series after losing Game Three by a 7-2 score on Tuesday. New York (93-75) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. They turn to Suarez for Game Four -- he has a 12-8 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 27 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.96 and 3.70 moving forward. In his six starts during the day, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has struggled in the second half of the season as he dealt with a back injury. In his last 11 starts, he had a 6.53 ERA and a 2.24 WHIP — and in his last four starts, he was saddled with a 7.80 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. He faces a Mets team that ranks third in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. Both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA at 4.06 and 3.92 moving forward. The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound. They have also played 22 of their last 36 games at home at Citi Field Over the Total. The left-hander faces a Phillies team that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 36 of their last 53 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB National League East Playoffs Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-69) completed their two-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in the wildcard round of the MLB playoffs with a 5-4 victory on Wednesday. Los Angeles (98-64) has won five games in a row to conclude their regular season after a 2-1 win at Colorado last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games after winning their previous contest. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Over is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. They have also played 37 of their last 60 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Yamamoto gets the ball tonight with a 7-2 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.44. He has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in ten starts as compared to his 2.06 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total with Yamamoto on the mound. He faces a Padres team that ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has played 24 of their last 40 games Over the Total as an underdog. They counter with Cease who has a 14-11 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts. He has been at his best at home at Petco Park where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.83 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks third and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 32 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams using a right-handed pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NL West rivals. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Best of luck for us — Frank.