My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFL enters its Week 7 with THREE unbeaten teams. The 5-0 Steelers and 5-0 Titans will square off in Nashville at 1:00 ET and the lone remaining unbeaten, the 5-0 Seahawks will play at Arizona vs the 4-2 Cards. The Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football but had to place four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts and the NFL then announced on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." This Seattle/Arizona contest will now be Week 7's SNF matchup.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. He also contributes to the Seattle running game, rushing for 153 yards on 6.7 YPC with three TDs. RB Carson is the "featured" back and has 289 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs. Carlson also has 21 catches with three more TDs. Wilson has an outstanding group of receivers, as Luckett leads with 30 catches but Metcalf has become the big playmaker with 22 catches, a 22.5 YPC average and five TDs. WR Moore has 10 catches (17.3 YPC and three TDs), while TD Olsen adds 15 catches. Seattle's Achilles' Heel is a defense allowing a league-high 431.2 YPG. With scoring way up this year, at least Seattle isn't one of the NINE teams allowing 30-plus PPG (27.8).

Arizona's second-year QB Kyler Murray completed just 9 of 24 attempts against the Cowboys but two went for TDs, including an 80-yarder to Christian Kirk that gave Arizona a 21-0 lead. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a TD. He's completing 65.9% for 1,487 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. Those are not quite Wilson-like stats but he's also run for 370 yards (7.3 YPC) with six TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 4678 yards (4.6 YPC) and four TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 21 catches but he's averaging only 6.9 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 47 catches, with Kirk catching 13 passes (18.5 YPC) with three TDs. Arizona owns a HUGE edge on defense, holding opponents to about 100 YPG less than Seattle's D and to just 18.7 PPG (almost 10 PPG less).

Seattle will NOT go 16-0, so a loss is coming and it's a fact that THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. However, Seattle is coming off a bye week (covered FIVE of the last seven in that situation), while Arizona is off its MNF win at Dallas. Murray vs Dalton was a mismatch but can Murray outplay Wilson? My bet says no.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The defending Super Bowl champion KC Chiefs have opened the 2020 season 5-1 and sit atop the AFC West. However, KC is the LONE division winner from 2019 to actually lead its division here in 2020, as the season gets set for Week 7. I won't list all of the reigning division winners 'looking up' to at least ONE team in their respective divisions here but WILL discuss TWO of those seven teams, as they meet Sunday in Foxboro. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games.

The 49ers just evened their record at 3-3 last Sunday night, beating the Rams 24-16. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl last season. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned in Week 5 but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). Garoppolo 'was on the money" against the Rams, throwing three first-half TD passes, finishing 23 of 33 for 268 yards without an INT (124.3 QB rating). RB Raheem Mostert also got back in the lineup and ran 17 times for 65 yards before suffering an ankle injury and leaving the game early in the third quarter. TE George Kittle caught seven passes for 109 yards and one TD, as the 49ers offense that did most of its damage in the first half en route to a 21-6 lead. The San Francisco defense, which was last seen serving up 436 yards and 43 points in a blowout home loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, held the Rams to 311 yards, in large part by limiting QB Jared Goff, who finished with a modest 198 passing yards on just 19 of 38 completions. Jason Verrett stalled a Los Angeles Rams third quarter rally with an end-zone interception and a fourth-and-goal (allowing San Francisco to retain a 21-9) and when LA made it a one-score margin on a 40-yard TD pass from Goff with 3:24 to play, the San Francisco offense ran out the clock (Rams never got the ball back).

The New England didn't allow a TD in Week 6 but Denver's Brandon McManus kicked a franchise-record SIX field goals to lift the visiting Denver Broncos to an 18-12 victory last Sunday. The game originally scheduled for Oct 12 and was pushed back to this past Sunday due to several COVID-19 cases in the Patriots' organization. New England was unable to hold many practices over the previous two weeks, including having Friday's session canceled due to center James Ferentz being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. QB Cam Newton saw his first action since Week 3 and ran for 76 yards and a touchdown and went 17-for-25 passing but for only 157 yards with TWO interceptions. He has options at WR in Edelman (20 catches), Harry (18 catches) and Byrd (17) plus RB White has 165 catches in the last two games. Newton lead the Past with 225 rushing and has five rushing TDs but they'll need better passing number out of him. RB Sony Michel has run for 173 (6.7 YPC) in just three games but was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Denver game (status unknown at this time for Sunday). The New England D did its job vs Denver, allowing just 299 yards plus holding Denver to 4 of 14 on third downs. The Pats D was the best in the league last season but one can't and didn't expect this year's unit to hold opponents to 14.1 PPG, again. Scores are up in 2020 and the Pats are allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) and rank 9th in total D, allowing 275.9 YPG.

The 49ers and Patriots are among the NFL’s most storied franchises with 11 SB titles between them (Pats own six and the Niners five). Garoppolo would NO doubt love to get a victory over the team that drafted him (sat behind Brady from 2014-17) but Newton (a former MVP) has MUCH to prove as well. The clincher for me is, it hasn't been often that one can back Belichick (coming off TWO straight losses) at such a small 'price' and at HOME, no less! The 49ers may be 2-0 on the road in 2020 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium over the Giants and Jets (a combined 1-11).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Atlanta Falcons opened 0-5 and that start got head coach Dan Quinn fired. In my opinion, he should have been fired immediately after Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots (New England scored the game's last 31 points to win 34-28 in OT). Raheem Morris spent three seasons as head coach of the Bucs, producing a poor 17-31 record and had just been promoted to DC in Atlanta at the start of 2020. He was named interim head coach after the firing of Quinn and had to be pleased with Atlanta's 40-23 win at Minnesota last Sunday. Detroit's head coach Matt Patricia knows all about 'feeling the heat,' as he went 6-10 in his first season as head coach in Detroit (2018), before going 3-12-1 last season. The Lions ended 2019 on a NINE-game losing skid. Detroit ended its 11-game slide (2-9 ATS) with a 26-23 win at Arizona in Week 3 but lost the following week at home to the Saints. Detroit opened a 14-0 lead but the Saints then scored on their next FIVE possessions to take a 35-14 lead (Saints won 35-29). The Lions did win last Sunday, crushing the sad-sack Jags 34-16 in Jacksonville

Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has used Adrian Peterson, rookie De'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. Peterson has received the bulk of the work (285 yards on 4.1 YPC / 2 TDs) but Swift had a breakthrough performance against the Jaguars, rushing for 116 yards on 14 carries and two TDs. I'm not sure where that effort came from, as Swift had run for just 44 yards the first four games. The Detroit running game averages just 117.4 YPG. QB Matthew Stafford always puts up big numbers (he surpassed 4,000 yards passing seven straight seasons from 2011-17) but he's just 71-82-1 as a starter in the regular season plus is 0-3 in three postseason games. He's thrown for 1,240 yards through five games (on pace for just under 4,000 yards) with nine TDs and four INTs but his receiving corps seems pretty mediocre. TE Hockenson leads with 17 catches and three TDs but the WR trio of Golladay (14), Jones (14) and Amendola (12) don't scare any secondary.

Matt Ryan, like Stafford, always puts up big numbers (he entered 2020 with NINE straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards) but except for Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run, he has shown only modest success. Atlanta had a solid running game back in 2016 but the addition of Todd Gurley has not worked out as hoped. He has run for 422 yards (4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but in the big win over Minnesota last Sunday, he was a non-factor with 47 yards on 20 carries. Who was a factor for Atlanta was WR Julio Jones. It's no secret that Jones makes the Falcons a much more dangerous team. Following a strong opening-day performance against Seattle, Jones missed two games and struggled through two others with a hamstring injury. It was part of the reason why the Falcons started 0-5, However, he caught passes against the Vikings for 137 yards and two TDs. With Jones sidelined or ineffective early on, Calvin Ridley leads the team with 35 catches and five TDs. Fellow WR Gage has 25 catches and TE Hurst has 17 catches with three TDs.

Neither the Lions (28.6 PPG) nor the Falcons (30.7 PPG) play much defense, so this game will be decided by which team plays the better offensive game. My bet says that will be Atlanta, as with Jones back, Ryan has WAY more receiving 'weapons' than Stafford and this contest will NOT be decided by either team's running game. The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons plus getting that "first win of the season," should let the Falcons play with confidence. Atlanta knows it is not making the playoffs this season but being competitive the rest of the way is a reasonable goal. However, losing at home to the Lions would upset the apple cart. The 'apples stay in the cart' for at least one more game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Month is on Buf/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The New York Jets are the only remaining winless NFL team as they welcome the Buffalo Bills to MetLife Stadium for a Week 7 contest on Sunday. The Jets are last in the NFL with 75 points scored (every other NFL team has scored at least 100), which is an average of 12.5 per game. The Jets are also one of EIGHT teams allowing 30-plus points per game (30.8), meaning they are losing by an average of 18.3 PPG. It should not come as a shock that the Jets are also 0-6 ATS. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, it seemed like the perfect  opportunity for someone other than the Patriots to win the AFC East. Why not the Bills?

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th overall). He had not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and he has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He was terrific in Buffalo's 4-0 start, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, while averaging 331.5 YPG through the air with 12 TDs and just one INT. However, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games, 42-26 at Tennessee and then 26-17 at home to KC this past Monday night. Buffalo's D (allowing 28.0 PPG on the season) sure didn't help but Allen has really regressed in the two losses, completing just 58.8 percent, while averaging only 192.5 YPG passing with four TDs and three INTs.

It's really hard to make much of a case for the Jets winning this game (or any upcoming game, either), so I won't try. Sam Darnold suffered an AC joint sprain of his passing shoulder on Oct 1 against the Denver Broncos and Joe Flacco has started the past two games, a span in which the Jets have scored 10 total points. Flacco has completed just 50.6 percent of his passes in his two starts, throwing for 381 yards with one TD and one INT. His QB rating was 82.3 in a 30-10 home loss to Arizona and then a pathetic 50.0 in last Sunday's 24-0 shutout loss in Miami. Sam Darnold (shoulder) returned to practice Wednesday as a limited participant and took the bulk of the first-team repetitions. Adam Gase has yet to name Darnold as Sunday's starter but that's the likely scenario. As for Gase, he's wearing out his welcome very quickly in East Rutherford. Gase led Miami to a 10-6 record and a wild card spot in his first season (2016) but was fired after 6-10 and 7-9 seasons. You tell me why the Jets quickly signed him as their head coach but after a 7-9 record last season, this year's 0-6 start has tongues 'wagging.'

These teams met in Week 1 at Buffalo and the Bills won 27-17. The over/under in that game was 39.5 and the over was my "Featured" Sunday total of Week. The total is almost six points higher here but I'm still Goin' Over and here's why. The Bills really NEED a win here to 'stop the bleeding,' as they don't want to see their 4-0 start turn into a 4-3 record after seven games. The Dolphins are 3-3 but on a "bye week" and the Pats are 2-3 and at home to the 49ers. No reason at all for Allen not to regain his form against the Jets "D" and especially if Darnold is back, the Jets should be able to move the ball (and score!) against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 30.2 PPG over its last five games. The total is a FG higher than I had hoped for but adjustments have been made due to the league's overall high scoring so far. Buffalo averaged 30.8 PPG in its 4-0 start and I see them surpassing that average here, which should lead to this game flying over the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. As Dallas gets set to welcome the Arizona Cardinals to "Jerry's House" for a MNF game which wraps up Week 6, one could say truthfully, that the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys have attained their "high perch" only because the other three teams in the division are a combined 3-14-1! Dallas is just 2-3 and more notably, 0-5 ATS (only the 'minor league' Jets are worse, going 0-6 SU & ATS!).

The Arizona Cardinals visit Arlington at 3-2 but reside in one the NFL's toughest (meaning best) divisions. Seattle is atop the NFC West at 5-0, the Rams are 4-2 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 3-3. The Cards are led by former Heisman-winner Kyler Murray, who is completing 69.6% for 1,299 with eight TDs but also six INTs (QB rating of 90.9). Murray also makes plays "with his legs," rushing for 296 yards (on 7.2 YPC) with four TDs. Kenyon Drake is the team's top RB with 314 yards but averages only 3.7 YPC. With Murray's help, Arizona is rushing for 141.0 YPG, an excellent number. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald has 28 catches but he's no longer a playmaker, averaging just 6.8 YPC. DeAndre Hopkins is now 'the big dog' of the receiving corps, with 45 catches and three TDs. A greatly improved defense may be the biggest storyline in 2020 for Arizona, as the Cards ranked last in the NFL in 2019, allowing 402.0 YPG. However, the Cards have cut that figure to 346.6 YPG and more importantly, are allowing 20.4 PPG, after allowing 27.6 PPG in 2019.

This game is when the Cowboys formally begin life without QB Dak Prescott, whose season is over after he sustained a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle during last Sunday's game against the NY Giants. Prescott had passed for an NFL-leading 1,856 yards and was the driving force in making the Cowboys No. 1 in total offense (488.0 YPG), while ranking third in scoring (32.6 PPG) through Week 5. Stepping in will be veteran Andy Dalton (more on him in a bit). Zeke has 364 yards rushing and five TDs but is averaging only 4.1 YPC. WR Amari Cooper has 39 catches but averages just 10.9 YPC and has just one TD reception. However, Dalton also has three more VERY good options. Rookie WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 catches (14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and fellow WR Gallup has 17 catches (20.5 YPC ab]nd one TD). Then there is TE Schultz, who has 19 receptions (11.8 YPC / 2 TDs). Defense HAS been a big problem and why the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. No "Doomsday Defense" these days, as the team is allowing 404.4 YPG (29th through Week 5), while allowing 36.0 PPG (32nd of 32 teams!).

Murray has proven he can play at this level but the Arizona running game doesn't give him much cover. Take away Murray's 296 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC and Arizona RBs have contributed just 409 yards (that's 81.8 YPG) on 3.8 YPC. Making 'life' more difficult for the Cards here, is that they are playing on the road for the THIRD consecutive week. Getting back to Dalton, I expect him to "fit right in" with this talented offense. He was  9 of 12 for 111 yards in relief last week and I believe will THRIVE. He got a "bad rap" in Cincy. He took the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and had the team at 10-3 when his 2015 season ended due to an injury. Yes, Cincy lost in the wild card round in each of those five consecutive postseason appearances (Dalton was 0-4 with just one TD pass and six INTs) but c'mon. When he arrived in Cincy as a rookie in 2011, the franchise had missed the playoffs in 18 of the previous 20 seasons, winning for games or less in EIGHT of those seasons, including going 4-12 the year before he got there. Dalton turned things around to 9-7 as a rookie and then led the Bengals to 10-plus wins the next FOUR seasons. Is Dalton as talented as Prescott, no. However, don't be surprised if the Cowboys win seven or eight of their final 11 games with him starting. For tonight, Dallas wins impressively.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams went 13-3 and represented the NFC at the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (lost to the Pats) but it was the SF 49ers who went 13-3 last season and made the Super Bowl, only to lose to the Chiefs. The Rams used a two-game sweep over its California rival to capture the NFC West in 2018 and the 49ers "returned the favor" with a two-game sweep of the season series in 2019. The teams meet on SNF in Week 6 at Levi's Stadium with the Rams off to a 4-1 start, while the 49ers check in at just 2-3. Seattle sits atop the NFC West at 5-0 and even the Arizona Cards have 'thrown their hat in the ring,' by opening 3-2.

LA's Jared Goff has started strong, completing 71.7% for 1,372 yards with eight TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 108.8). He has two talented WRs in Kupp (28 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (23 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Higbee has 15 catches and a team high three TD grabs. LA sure doesn't miss RB Gurley, as the team's two-headed RB tandem of Henderson (260 yards) and Brown (213 yards) has the Rams averaging 139.6 YPG on the ground (7th), well above the 93.7 YPG (26th) the team averaged last season. The LA defense is also improved , allowing 18.0 PPG, down from 22.8 PPG last season.

The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned last week but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). RB Raheem Mostert also returned and while the 49ers were embarrassed at home by Miami, Mostert ran for 90 yards on 11 carries (he has 238 yards on 7.0 YPC on the season). TE Kittle has been back the last two games and while he had just four catches in the rout, he had 15 catches the previous week vs Philly. WR Bourne has 15 catches in playing all five games (15.1 YPC) but the 49ers need WR Samuel to return to his rookie form. Is this the week? The defense has had a drop-off (no Bosa is HUGE) but even after last week's debacle, check in allowing 22.8 PPG on 323.0 YPG (not terrible numbers, by any stretch).

Here's the bottom line. With Seattle at 5-0 (is on a bye week) and the Rams at 4-1, the last-place 49ers would fall to 2-4 with a loss in this one, with the Rams moving to 5-1. After going 7-1 SU at home last season, the 49ers  are 0-3 at home so far in 2020 and this marks their THIRD straight home game. Talk about a "must win," if San Francisco has ANY designs on making the playoffs this season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Bucs at 4:25 ET.

It's a 'Battle of the Bays' on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium, as well as a showdown between two of this era's greatest QBs, Rodgers and Brady. The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS) and come off a bye week to meet the 3-2 Tampa Bay Bucs, who struggled to finish off their drives in a 20-19 Thursday Week 5 loss at Chicago. Those surprising Bears are 4-1 and right behind the Packers in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with New Orleans and Carolina.

The Packers got good news this week, as their No. 1 WR Davante Adams will return for Sunday's game. Adams has sat out Green Bay's last two games with a hamstring injury, but had caught 17 passes for 192 yards with two TDs before sustaining his injury in a 42-21 rout of Detroit back on Sep 21. Adams has averaged 86 catches per season the last four years, while catching 40 TD passes. Getting Adams back is truly great news but with or without Adams, the Packers have had some start to the season. They are averaging a league-high 38.0 PPG, while ranking second in total offense (454.3 YPG), fourth in rushing (150.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (303.5 YPG). It's hard to argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. but Rodgers is a special QB and in 2020 he's completed 70.5% for 1,214 yards with 13 TDs and not a single INT in 139 attempts. His QB rating of 128.4 is topped by only Russell Wilson's 129.8 RB Aaron Jones is having a terrific season, rushing for 374 yards (5.8 YPC) with four TDs, while catching 15 passes for two more TDs. Green Bay's defense has been pretty mediocre in allowing 25.3 PPG but when one's offense is averaging 38.0 PPG, it's good enough for the team to have an average margin of victory of 12.7 points (now wonder the Packers are 4-0 ATS).

The Bucs signed Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract in fully guaranteed money, despite the fact that he turned 43 in August. I guess that's the going rate for a six-time Super Bowl-winning QB. The biggest post-game talk in Tampa Bay's loss in Chicago was that Brady appeared to forget the downs on his team's last unsuccessful series, Not sure if that was the case or not but things went awry for him and the offense well before then. The Bucs committed 11 penalties and its OL not only allowed Brady to be sacked three times but he was pressured on a "way too high" percentage of his 41 passes. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the first quarter, and couldn't match that for the game's remainder. I mentioned the team's inability to finish off drives at the top and that's reinforced by Tampa Bay settling for four FGs, three from inside of 40 yards. Brady's completed 64.3 % of his passes for 1,375 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs and has looked better than he did in his last couple of regular seasons with the Pats. RB Ronald Jones may not be quite as good as Green Bay's Aaron, but he has 359 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 catches, as well. WR Mike Evans has become Brady's favorite target, catching 22 passes with five TDs. Fellow WR Miller has 15 catches and averages a team-best 16.7 YPC. TE Howard (11 catches with two TDs) is sidelined but Gronk has 10 of his 12 catches this season in the last three games. Tampa's defense is allowing just 2898.2 YPG (second-best in the NFL), which is just over 80 yards less than last season's 'stop unit.' The Bucs allowed 27.8 PPG last season but that's down to a more respectable 22.4 PPG allowed in this VERY high-scoring season.

One CAN'T ignore that Green Bay's 4-0 SU and ATS mark has come against four opponents whose combined record is 5-15. Is it also noteworthy that Green Bay has failed to cover FOUR of its last five games when  returning from bye? I'm not so sure about that but I am sure that this is a HUGE game for the Bucs, which happens to be the team's LONE home game in a four-game span. It's possible that this could be the last regular-season meeting between Rodgers and Brady (they've met just TWICE before, with each winning once) and I'm backing the G.O.A.T.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

AFC North contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but this first of two meetings here in 2020 draws extra meaning because the Browns have opened 4-1 for the first time since 1994 and the 4-0 Steelers are one of just FOUR unbeaten NFL teams. The QB matchup has more than a little intrigue as well, with some believing that Baker Mayfield (at 25) is blossoming into the franchise QB the Browns have been seeking for years. On the Pittsburgh side, the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to post a QB rating of 110.4 through four games, which would be teh highest for a career that began back in 2004 (note: Baker was NINE years old in 2004!). It's also  a game between the NFL top rushing offense (Cleveland is averaging an NFL-best 188.4 YPG)  going up against the NFL stingiest rush defense (Pittsburgh is allowing 64.0 YPG on the ground.

The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 29.8 PPG, which is a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh allows (21.8 PPG). However, since losing in Week 1 by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 37.5 PPG. The Browns have scored at least 30 points in each of their four straight wins, the first time they have reached that total in four straight games since 1968 (can you say Leroy Kelly and Bill Nelson?). Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into more of a "game-manager." He's completing 61.2% for 976 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers but they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's QB position for what seemed like an eternity. Whether it's Hunt (347 yards on 5.0 YPC with 3 TDs / 11 catches with three TDs) or Chubb (335 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). WRs OBJ (21 catches with three TDs) and Landry (21 catches but zero TDs) are quality targets but late Thursday afternoon it was announced that OBJ was sent home with an unexplained illness.

Big Ben is completing 69.9% for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (see above for his QB rating). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor then topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games (Weeks 2 and 3) for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). However, he did have just 44 rushing yards with one TD in last week's win. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (21 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (15 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group that saw rookie which also features rookie Chase Claypool, who had  a breakout game vs the Eagles last Sunday. The Notre Dame product caught SEVEN passes for 110 yards with three TDs plus added a rushing tD. He now has 13 catches on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with four receiving TDs. I noted Pittsburgh's rush D at the top but will add here that the Steelers rank third in the league in total defense, allowing 301.5 PPG.

I don't know the status of OBJ but Cleveland is also dealing with the following. Mayfield came out of last weekend's 32-23 win over Indianapolis with tender ribs and was limited in practice Wednesday, saying he was "sore ... but that is why we have the rest of the week until game day." In addition to Mayfield, safeties Ronnie Harrison (concussion) and Karl Joseph (hamstring) and receiver Jarvis Landry (hips/ribs) were out Wednesday, although head coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Landry to return to practice this week. RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), who has been carrying the load with Nick Chubb hurt, was limited Wednesday.

This matchup surely qualifies as a rivalry but it sure is a ONE-SIDED one. Here's the rub. The Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 27-4-1 SU record (not much of an impost in this one!). Pittsburgh was a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2019 in home games inside the NFC North, while the Browns are a 'money-burning' 11-20 ATS in their last 31 games against their NFC foes. That includes a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a win but non-cover at home vs the Bengals in Week 2. Lay the MORE than reasonable price!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Was/NYG Over at 1:00 ET.

The 0-5 New York Giants are one of just THREE remaining winless NFL teams as the 2020 season moves into Week 6. The other two are the New York Jets (the Giants co-tenants of MetLife Stadium) and the Atlanta Falcons, who fired coach Dan Quinn at the beginning of the week. While 0-5 is 0-5, it should be noted that while the Falcons and Jets are a combined 1-9 ATS, the Giants have gone 3-2. Three of the Giants' losses have come by single digits, including a 37-34 road setback last week in Dallas against the Cowboys. First-year head coach Joe Judge said he is encouraged by his team's progress. "That's all that really matters, to be honest with you, the progress that we're making right now," Judge said after his team's latest loss. "The record will come in time. Obviously, we're not happy about the losses, that's not what we do here. But I've seen a lot of progress on all fronts and all units. We have to keep making consistent progress to keep being a better team as the year goes."

It's fair to say it's "put up or shut up" time for the Giants this Sunday, as 1-4 Washington visits East Rutherford, NJ. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but rallied to score the game's final 27 points in a 27-17 win over the defending NFC East champs. However, very little has gone right for the team since then, as Washington has lost FOUR in a row (0-3-1 ATS) since that Week 1 victory, allowing at each 30 points in each  contest (average of 31.3 PPG). Washington has seen enough of QB Dwayne Haskins (61.0%  for 939 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTS for a QB rating of 80.3), replacing him in favor of backup Kyle Allen in last Sunday's 30-10 loss to the Raiders. Allen completed 9 of 13 passes for 74 yards and rushed for a TD before he was injured on a scramble, which created an opportunity for Alex Smith to take the field for the first time since his gruesome leg injury in 2018. However, Washington is expected to turn back to Allen against the Giants after he reportedly was cleared by doctors to return. This would be his 15th career start, including 13 with the Carolina Panthers over the previous two seasons (he's 6-8 as an NFL starter). Allen can't expect much help from a running game that averages just 101.8 YPG on 3.5 YPC but RBs McKissic (17 catches) and Gibson (145 catches) have both done a nice job as receivers. Washington's lone WR of note is second-year player McLaurin, who has 29 catches, averaging 15.8 YPC.

With Barkley out for the season, the Giants know all about the lack of a running game, as New York ranks dead-last in the NFL by averaging a pathetic 79.0 YPG on the ground (3.8 YPC). The Giants are sticking with second-year QB Daniel Jones, who showed flashes of potential in 2019. He ended the season having completed 61.9% for 3,027 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. He's completing 61.0% this year for 1,111 yards (that's on pace for 3,5000 yards on the season) but he has just two TD passes and five INTs. QB rating of 70.6 is down from his rookie season, when he posted an 87.7 rating. Second-year WR Slayton has 23 catches (15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Engram has 18 catches. A huge disappointment so far is Golden Tate, who has a modest 18 catches plus is averaging only 8.1 YPC (Tate had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons (2014-17).

The Giants are third-to-last in the league in averaging only 282.4 YPG, while Washington is dead last with 263.0 YPG. So why go over? Neither team can run the ball and I expect both QBs to have solid games, maybe even their best games this season to-date. As has been widely reported, scoring has never been higher (since the 1970 merger) and linemakers have adjusted the over/under numbers up. However, as of Friday at 12 noon ET, this game has the lowest posted total of any Week 6 game. The Giants should 'smell' the chance for a "W" and I won't be even a little surprised if they are the FIFTH straight team to score 30-plus points on Washington, meaning we won't need too much help from Washington for this game to go over. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET.

The 1-3 LA Chargers are in New Orleans for a MNF contest against the 2-2 Saints. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers back in 2004 and he took over as the team's starting QB in 2006 and started EVERY game for the team over the last 14 seasons. However, the Chargers only made the playoffs in TWO of the previous 10 seasons. He left via free agency with the Chargers drafting Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the sixth pick of the 1st round in the 2020 draft as his eventual replacement. Tyrod Taylor started in Week 1, a game the Chargers won 16-13 at Cincinnati. However, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of the Taylor's lungs, while attempting to administer a shot to Tyrod Taylor's ribs. Taylor has been sidelined ever since and while the Chargers have lost three in a row, don't blame Herbert. He's completing 72.0% for 931 yards in his three starts, with five TDs, three INTs and a QB rating of 102.2 (more later).

Herbert was just 6 years old when Drew Brees left his final game for the Chargers with a career-threatening shoulder injury. A decade-and-a-half later, they're set to be on opposite sidelines on MNF. Brees has broken about every passing record that matters since joining New Orleans in 2006. However, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. He enters this game completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,006 yards with eight TDs and two INTs for a 108.7 QB rating.

The Chargers will NOT have RB Austin Ekeler for this game due to a hamstring injury and that's NOT good news. He's run for 248 yards (5.1 YPC) and has 17 catches. UCLA rookie Joshua Kelley gets the start and he's run for 174 yards, averaging only 3.3 YPC. Herbert does have excellent receivers, headlined by Keenan Allen, who has 32 catches (the last three seasons, Allen has had 102, 97 and 104 catches with six TDs receptions in each season). Mike Williams may be back for this one and that would be great news. He had 49 catches (20.4 YPC) last season and 43 catches with 10 TDs in 2018. TE Henry has 18 catches, adding to Herbert's 'weapons.'

Speaking of WRs, the Saints are still listing Michael Thomas as questionable with a groin injury that has kept him out the last three games. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. RB Alvin Kamara has been terrific, rushing for 236 yards with four TDs and grabbing a team-high 30 receptions for three TDs. Murray is an excellent backup, rushing for 184 yards with two TDs. Brees needs WRs Smith (14 catches / 2 TDs) and Sanders (14 catches / 2 TDs) to contribute more, if Thomas is not back.

Comparing the defenses shows that while the Chargers are allowing 373.8 YPG to the Saints' 334.3 YPG, LA is holding opponents to 23.8 PPG, while New Orleans is allowing 30.8 PPG (that's a full TD difference!). Herbert passed for over 300 yards in his first two starts and while he had 290 last week, he completed 20 of 25 passes with three TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 137.9. Yes, the Chargers have lost three straight but they took defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City to OT and only a dropped lateral on the final play deprived them of a golden opportunity to pull out a Week 3 win over Carolina. Last week, they led Brady and the Bucs 24-7, before losing 38-31. Meanwhile, the Saints fell behind 14-0 early at Detroit, before scoring TDs on FIVE consecutive drives. Those things happen when a team is playing the sad-sack Lions, who have lost 12 of their last 13 games, going 3-10 ATS. The Chargers will battle you all the way and are 2-0 ATS as a road dog already this season. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 last season and as the NFC's No. 6 seed, played at New Orleans (No. 3 seed with a 13-3 record) and upset the Saints, 26-20 in OT. Seattle went 11-5 last season and captured the NFC's No. 5 seed and drew the NFC East champion Eagles, who they beat 17-9. Both teams then lost road games at San Francisco and Green Bay, respectively. These same two teams meet tonight in Seattle for SNF on NBC but their respective 2020 seasons have begun quite differently. The Vikings opened 0-3 before winning their first game of the season last Sunday 31-23 at Houston, which has opened 0-4. Meanwhile, Seattle has opened 4-0 SU and ATS. 

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer has been known for his defense but this year's Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG on 426.5 YPG. QB Kirk Cousins entered the current season off two excellent seasons, completing 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs (99.7 QB rating) in 2018 and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and six INTs (107.4 rating) last season. He played OK vs Green Bay in Week 1 (19 of 25 for 259 yards with two TDs and one INT / 118.6 QB rating) but that performance was dwarfed by Aaron Rodgers' 364 passing yards with four TDs in a 43-34 Green Bay win. Cousins struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 with FIVE interceptions but bounced back in the team's road win at Houston last Sunday, going 16 of 22 for 260 yards with one TD and zero INTs (127.1 rating). RB Dalvin Cook ran for just 113 yards in Minnesota's 0-2 SU and ATS start but for 311 yards (6.4 YPC) with three TDs in the Vikings' last two games (team is 2-0 ATS). Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo but veteran Adam Thielen has 20 catches *(14.2 YPC) with four TDs and is loving the chance to mentor LSU rookie Jefferson, who has 15 catches, averaging 21.8 YPC. TE Rudolph, who has averaged 58 catches the last five years while catching 40 TDs, is off to a slow start (eight catches and one TD).

2020 has opened as "The Year of the QB" and it's hard to find anyone playing better than Seattle's Russell Wilson. He's completed 75.2% for 1,285 with 16 TDs and just two INTs (136.7 QB rating leads the NFL). He's tied Peyton Manning's record with 16 TD passes in the first four games and already has 16 completions of more than 20 yards and is averaging 9.4 YPA. RB Carson ran for just 21 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes with two going for TDs. The last three games, he's run for a solid 216 yards on 6.3 YPC. WRs Lockett (26 catches / 4 TDs) and Metcalf (16 catches / 25.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are a dynamic duo plus TE Olsen has 14 catches (one TD) and RB Carson 15 catches with three TDs. The issue has been Seattle's defense, which has allowed a league-high (meaning worst!) 476.8 YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 27.3 PPG, a figure which would likely be higher if their offense wasn't playing so well, which has kept opposing offenses off the field.

Seattle has a bye next week and would love nothing more than to head into that week off at 5-0. However, the history books tell us Seattle has NEVER started a season 5-0. As for the Vikings, a closer look at their season reveals that despite the team's 1-3 start, there's some optimism lying beneath the surface. Minnesota has been at its best inside the red zone booth offensively and defensively. The offense is tied for eighth in the NFL in goal-to-go TD rate (87.5%) and fifth in inside-the-20 TD rate (76.9%). The defense is seventh in goal-to-go TD rate (58.3%) and second in inside-the-20 TD rate (41.2%).

These teams are meeting for the FIFTH since 2015 (high number for non-division opponents), including last season in Seattle, when the Seahawks won 37-30 but were just a three-point favorite, Here, Minnesota gets a full TD and they'll get a break as CenturyLink Field (arguably the NFL's toughest home venue) will be silent outside of what gets piped through the stadium speaker system. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Panthers opened the season with back-to-back losses plus saw the team's MVP, RB Christian McCaffrey, go down with an injury during Week 2's loss. However, Teddy Bridgewater is showing promise as a long-term replacement for Cam Newton at QB, plus RB Mike Davis (in his 7th season) is flourishing as a short-term substitute for McCaffrey. The Panthers are 2-0 without McCaffrey and travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the winless Falcons (0-4). Atlanta couldn't handle Russell Wilson in Week (no other team has either) but then blew HUGE leads in losing back-to-back games at Dallas and home to the Bears. The Falcons then lost this past Monday night 30-16 in Green Bay, as Rodgers ripped them for four TD passes..

Are the Panthers emerging as a surprise contender in the NFC South? A loss here would negate that theory. Bridgewater has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,147 yards but has a modest four TD passes (also three INTs). He went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans last season when Brees missed time and enters this game 18-8 as starting QB since 2015. mike Davis has done little in his first six NFL seasons but he's started the last two weeks, gaining 130 yards on 29 carries (4.5 YPC).Bridgewater has a trio of WRs that are not bad at all, with free agent pickup Robby Anderson's 28 catches being among the leaders through four weeks, plus Moore (18 catches / 16.0 YPC) and Samuel (14 catches) also contributing. The defense allowed 65 points in opening 0-2 but has allowed just 37 points in the team's back-to-back wins.

Matt Ryan, who somehow earned the nickname "Matty Ice," despite winning NOTHING, can still throw the ball. He's passed for 1,246 yards through four games, with seven TDs and just two INTs. He's got plenty of receivers, including Julio Jones, who is one of the best when healthy. He missed the second half against Green Bay after aggravating a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous week against Chicago. He has 15 catches in 2 1/2 games and has a history of finding a way to play games after missing practice time because of injuries. Fellow WRs Ridley (21 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Gage (19 catches) are excellent options, as is TE Hurst (13 catches / 2 TDs). Todd Gurley was a key FA pickup but so far has been average (254 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC) but does have four TDs. The defense is another story, ranking 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed (34.5 per) and total yards (448.3 YPG).

The Falcons won their last four games last season to save head coach Dan Quinn's job but after an 0-4 start in 2020, Quinn's job status is again the subject of weekly speculation. It could be "win or else" here for Quinn, considering the Falcons have owned this series over the past four seasons, going 7-1 SU & ATS. That includes 29-3 and 40-20 victories a year ago. Carolina is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against NFC South opponents its last 25. The line says WIN and COVER for Atlanta and that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* AFC Game of the Month is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans win the AFC South with a 10-16 record last season, the team's FOURTH division title in a  five-year span. Houston would edge Buffalo 23-20 (OT) in the wild card round in 2019 and then went to KC, where it took a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs, before getting run over by Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC would score the game's next 41 points, on their way to a 51-31. I realize that Bill O'Brien was the team's head coach in each of the team's four division-winning seasons but NEVER warmed to him as a head coach. I was really surprised that following that loss to the Chiefs, the Texans appointed O'Brien to the role of general manager. Houston had gone the entire 2019 season with the position vacant. During the offseason, O'Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins (the team's best receiver) to the Arizona Cardinals, a move that was heavily criticized. Star defensive end J.J. Watt wouldn't address reports that he got into a verbal altercation with O'Brien in practice two weeks ago but he did say that he thought a team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback needed a change after the 0-4 start. O'Brien was fired by the Texans on October 5, 2020. Team owner Cal McNair then made Romeo Crennel the team's interim coach for the rest of this season. Crennel has been an assistant for O'Brien since 2014 and has coached both the Browns and the Chiefs in an NFL and college career spanning 50 years (more on him later).

Visiting Houston on Sunday will be the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Gardner Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He has opened his sophomore season completing 72.1 percent for 1,138 yards with eight TDs and four INTs (101.2 QB rating). The Jags have a shaky OL with Minshew being sacked 13 times. He also gets little help from his running game, which is averaging just 104.3 YPG. The team's best WR, DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), returned in Week 4, after missing Week 3's game. He had EIGHT catches last Sunday, giving him 15 (in three games), averaging 13.6 YPC with three TDs (two came last week). WRs Cole (19 catches / 10.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Shenault (16 catches / 11.9 YPC / one TD) are decent 'helpers.' The Jacksonville D is allowing 399.5 YPG and also 29.3 PPG (not good).

Watson signed a HUGE extension before the season and the Texans didn't expect an 0-4 starts. Watson is completing 65.6% for 1,092 yards with six TDs and three INTs (solid but NOT what Houston needs). He's also added very little 'with his legs,' rushing for only 58 yards (3.4 YPC) without a TD. The overall running game is a mess, as David Johnson looked good in Week 1 (77 yards on 11 carries) but he's gained only 120 yards the last three games on 40 attempts (3.0 YPC). Houston misses Hopkins but Fuller (18 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) is excellent plus veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been excellent receivers in this league. TE Akins (14 catches with one TD), is MORE than adequate. The defense allows 393. YPG and 31.5 PPG. Do I need to add a comment?

Getting back to Crennel, his head coaching record in the NFL is 'ugly.' He is 28-55 (.337) in five-plus seasons with the Browns and Chiefs but he's had an excellent history as an assistant, being part of coaching staffs that won FIVE Super Bowl titles. Parcells and Belichick may have had something to do with that. He's well-liked and while he is NOT the long-term solution for Houston, I say he's just perfect for this underachieving team, right now. Let me note that Houston may be 0-4 but the Texans opened the season with KC (4-0), Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-0). Of course, there's NO excuse for last week's loss to the previously winless Vikings. However, Minnesota was a playoff team in 2019. 

Anyway, I'm expecting a great effort from Houston and for the Jaguars to play the perfect foil. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'imploded,' going 2-10 the rest of the way. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-3 start this season means the Jags are 9-23 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-13 on the road. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Phi/Pit Over at 1:00 ET.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers got an unexpected "bye week" last Sunday, with the Titans fighting a COVID-19 outbreak. That game's been rescheduled for Oct 25 and the 3-0 Steelers get set to welcome cross-state rival the Philadelphia Eagles to Heinz Field, as one of the NFL's SIX remaining unbeaten teams. The Eagles FINALLY got into the win column last Sunday night at San Francisco but at 1-2-1 sit atop the NFL's worst division, the NFC East (Dallas and Washington are 1-3 and the NY Giants are 0-4).

I took the Eagles last Sunday night, as I'm not ready just yet to "give up" on Carson Wentz. He entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL among starting QBs (66.9) and has already thrown SEVEN interceptions. Philly has key injuries to WRs Jeffrey (out) and Jackson (questionable) but still has a terrific TE in Ertz (19 catches, to lead the team). WR Ward has stepped up with 18 catches and more importantly, RB Miles Sanders has returned to rush for 236 yards (4.6 YPC) and catch nine passes in the last three games (he missed Week 1 with an injury). He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). The Philly defense may lead the league in sacks (17) but it's allowing 26.8 PPG.

Pittsburgh has 15 sacks (in just three games) and its defense is No. 2 in yards allowed (290.0 per) and ranks fifth in points allowed (19.3 per). The 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow and "looking good!" He's completing 67.0% for 777 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 105.2). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor has topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (17 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (14 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group, which also features Claypool, who has just six catches but is averaging 25.2 YPC (one TD).

You may find this hard to believe (I sure did) but if Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will be 4-0 for the first time in 41 years! I don't think Big Ben and Co. will have much trouble at all with Philly's so-so defense and again, I'm NOT giving up on Wentz. He's scrambling more this season, gaining 102 yards on 16 carries in the past two games and has run for a TD in each of the past three weeks. You may have heard that NFL games have averaged a combined 51.3 through the first four weeks of a season, the highest since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. This total is well below the average for Week 5 games and I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

 My NFL 10* Thursday Night Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET.

You may just have heard that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady in the offseason hoping the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback could help them end a 12-year playoff drought. The 43-year-old Brady saw his production dip in his 20th and final season in New England but was able to sign a two-year, fully guaranteed $50 million contract with the Bucs. He was 'off' in Tampa Bay's season-opening loss at New Orleans, as he had two badly-thrown INTs, one of which was returned for a TD in a 34-23 loss. However, he's led the Bucs to THREE straight wins since that defeat, completing 65.5% with nine TDs and just two INTs. The Bucs have averaged 32.3 PPG in their winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 13 points!

The Bucs are in Chicago Thursday night for a game with the Bears, who opened the season 3-0, before struggling badly on offense in a 19-11 Week 4 loss at home to the Colts. The game wasn't as close as the final indicates, as the Bears trailed 19-3 before scoring a TD (and added a two-point conversion) with just 1:35 left in the game. Nick Foles replaced the obviously overrated Trubisky in Week 3 vs the Falcons, rallying the Bears from a 26-10 deficit to a 30-26 win. Foles threw three TD passes in the final 6 1/2 minutes of that contest but couldn't get the Bears into the end zone last Sunday until just under two minutes to go. In fairness, the Colts do own the NFL best defense early on in NFL 2020, allowing league-lows in points (14.0 per) and total yards (236.3 per).

Brady lost his favorite target in 2020, as TE Howard was lost for the season in last week's game. However, stepping in at TE will be a familiar face to Brady, Rob Gronkowski. WR Evans has loved the acquisition of Brady, grabbing 17 receptions with five TDs. Also, Miller (15 catches / 16.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Godwin (11 catches / 13.0 YPC / 1 TD) also not exactly slouches. RB Jones is off a very good season and is rounding into form with 253 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 12 catches. Brady loves to use his RBs as receivers and Sean McCoy (nine catches) and Leonard Fournette (seven catches) are reaping the benefits.

Foles played a Super Bowl for the ages when he led the Eagles to a 41-33 win against the Patriots (and Brady) in Super Bowl LII. He was the game's MVP completing 28-of-43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns plus caught a 1-yard TD pass on the “Philly Special" trick play that ranks as one of the most famous plays in NFL history. However, Foles has NEVER reached those heights again and will likely NEVER do so again. The Bears have a modest running game and it was all but completely shut down by the Colts, who held them to 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other than Allen Robinson (25 catches / 13.2 YPC / 2 TDs), the Bears have no receivers of note.

Yes, the Bears opened 3-0 but those wins came over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who have combined to go 1-11 SU. I doubt Brady is thinking "Super Bowl revenge" against Foles, but one never knows. What we do know is that when Brady overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 last week, he became the NFL's all-time regular-season victories leader (222), regardless of position. In the Bears, Brady will face a team that's never beaten him, as he's 5-0 with 1,595 passing yards, 14 TD passes and just four interceptions against Chicago. All in all, the Bucs seem like a strong play as a small road favorite in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season and opened the 2020 season by taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1. However, NOTHING has gone right since that time. Washington would score that game's final 27 points, as the Eagles lost 27-17 to a team that went  3-13 in 2019 and has lost both games this season since beating the Eagles by 15 and 14 points (allowed 30 and 24 points). The 49ers were in last year's Super Bowl and held a 20-10 lead over KC with under 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, the Chiefs 'exploded' for three TDs in just a five-minute span, for a 31-20 victory. The Niners were upset at home in Week 1 by the Arizona Cardinals 24-20, as a seven-point favorite. San Francisco has rebounded with back-to-back wins the last two Sundays 31-13 and 36-9 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium against the pathetic Jets and Giants (a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS).

Philly QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL at 63.9 and has already thrown six interceptions. RB Miles Sanders missed Week 1 but has returned to rush for 190 yards (5.0 YPC) and one TD, while catching seven passes for 48 yards. He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Wentz has a dynamic TE duo, Ertz (15 catches / one TD) and Goedert (13 catches / one TD). However, the Philly defense HAS to improve, as the Eagles have not forced a SINGLE turnovers on defense through 13 quarters this season (Eagles did recover a fumble on a punt return last week).

Jimmy G got hurt in Week 2 and remains out. Nick Mullens started in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 for 343 yards with one TD and zero INTs (108.9 QB rating). Top RB Mostert remains out and McKinnon gets the call again. He's gained 139 yards (6.9 YPC) with two TDs so far but had just 38 yards on 14 attempts in Week 3. The Niners have dealt with key injuries this season, including Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, CB Richard Sherman, 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, RB Mostert and No. 1 receiver Deebo Samuel. The good news is that Kittle and Samuel will be back this week. The bad news is that TE Jordan Reed (11 catches with two TDs) joined RB Tevin Coleman on injured reserve.

"Right now we're not a very good football team," Philly head coach Doug Pederson said. "We're not very smart. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. We're leaving touchdowns on the field offensively, and we're just not executing." I'm NOT ready to give up on Wentz. Facing an 0-3 start for the first time since 1999 last Sunday, Wentz drove the Eagles 75 yards in the final three minutes. He picked up nine yards on third-and-6 to the Bengals 19 and then ran in from the seven with a head-first dive into the end zone. Elliott's extra point tied it with 21 seconds left. However, neither team could do anything in overtime. San Francisco has been a  poor home favorite, going just 7-17-1 ATS in that role its last 25 tries. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET.

The Buffalo Bills are one of seven NFL teams still unbeaten (3-0) and will travel to Las Vegas in Week 4 for a game with the 2-1 Raiders. The Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead last Sunday at home against the Rams but then got 'bailed out' by a 'phantom' defensive pass-interference call that allowed Josh Allen to complete a three-yard TD pass with 15 seconds to go (Bills won 35-32). Meanwhile, the Raiders lost for the first time in 2020, falling 36-20 in New England to the Pats. 

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. Buffalo has won its first three games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Most would say that QB Josh Allen has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career in 2018 and 2019 but as I've noted before, he did become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. What all will agree upon is that here in 2020, he's taken his game to another level. He's completing 71.1% for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 124.8). The acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs (formerly of the Vikings) has been HUGE. Diggs has 20 catches and two TDs plus along with returning WRs Beasley (15 catches / 15.4 YPC) and Brown (10 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Allen has quite a trio. A concern is Buffalo's defense, which after allowing just 16.2 PPG in 2019, has allowed 25.7 PPG after three games of 2020.

Jon Gruden is in his second stint with the Raiders, with a stop in between in Tampa Bay with the Bucs (won the Super Bowl in his first season back in the 2002 season) and a VERY successful career in the TV booth. The Raiders were just 4-12 in his first season (2018) and 7-9 last season, However, the Raiders are now playing out of Las Vegas and things are looking up, although they do play in the AFC West with the KC Chiefs. QB Derek Carr has looked VERY good through three games, completing 74.0% for 784 yards with six TDs and zero INTs in 100 attempts (QB rating of 116.4).  RB Josh Jacobs had a terrific rookie season (1,150 yards on 4.7 YPC with 7 TDs) and while his start is more modest in 2020 (252 yards on 3.7 YPC with 3 TDs), this guy is "a player!" TE Waller is Carr's top target with 20 catches (just one TD) but he's averaging only 7.9 YPC (that HAS to improve). Defense has not been a Las Vegas strength, as the Raiders are allowing 30.0 PPG on 406. YPG.

I have great respect for the Bills but the Raiders beat the Saints in their only previous game in their brand-new stadium, 34-24 back in Week 2 on MNF. Buffalo's defense allowed Miami to score 28 and the Rams to score 32 (no one counts team's win over the Jets) and Carr and the Raiders can match scores with Allen and the Bills. I'm backing the home dog, as the Bills suffer their first loss of 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Bal/Was Over at 1:00 ET.

Here's part of what I wrote in taking KC over Baltimore when those two teams met last Monday night. "It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG)." I closed with this. "The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson is 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, TWO of those losses have come against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points."

The result was a 34-20 KC win, Jackson completed just 53.6% of his passes for 97 yards and ran for 83 but with zero TDs. The Baltimore defense gave up 35 points and 29 FDs, while allowing 517 yards. Now other than playing home games in Maryland, there are few similarities between the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Football Team. Washington finished 3-13 in 2019, the worst record in the NFC and is nothing more than a rebuilding team in 2020. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but scored the game's final 27 points. Washington had eight sacks and forced three TOs, while its scoring drives covered 45, 20, 26, 48 and 20 yards. Since that Week 1 win, Washington's allowed 30 and 34 points in losses to Arizona and Cleveland.

The Ravens entered Monday night on an 11-1 ATS run in which they have averaged 34.8 PPG. I see no way that Baltimore won't top that average in this contest, against a weak Washington defense. That means Washington won't have to contribute too much for this contest to 'go over!' That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

The Cowboys opened the 2020 season with a new head coach for the first time in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade.  Dallas welcomes the Browns to "Jerry's House" on Sunday just 1-2, with each of its first three games being decided in the final minute. A questionable offensive PI call prevented Dallas an opportunity to kick a game-tying FG at the end of its Week 1 game at the Rams (lost 20-17) and then Dallas overcame a 39-24 deficit at home to the Falcons in Week 2, scoring the game's final 16 points inside the last five minutes of the 4thb quarter (game-winning FG in a 40-39 victory came at 0:00). Dallas then overcame a 30-15 deficit at Seattle to take a 31-30 lead, only to see Seattle score with 1:47 to go. Down 38-31, Dallas drove to Seattle's 26-yard line, when Prescott was picked off to end the game.

We ALL know the plight of the Cleveland Browns, who won just four games from 2015-17.However, Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes, Nick Chubb ran for two more scores and the Browns moved over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 34-20 win Sunday over the Washington Football Team in Week 3. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has the Browns 2-1 for the first time since 2011. It's also the first time they've had a winning record since Week 14 in 2014, as Cleveland had gone 90 consecutive weeks without a winning record. As the ad once said, "Is it Real or is it Memorex?"

Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Mayfield has thrown for a modest 564 yards in three games (5 TDs / 2 INTs / QB rating of 91.5), as Cleveland's running game has been terrific. Chubb has 292 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs, while Hunt has 204 yards (5.2 YPC), giving the NFL's third-best rushing total (170.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC).

Speaking of RBs, Dallas' Zeke Elliott, a two-time rushing champion, has a modest 219 yards on YPC. Dallas QB Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle setting career highs for yards and attempts. However, Dallas lost. Prescott has topped 400 yards passing his last two games (is averaging 396.0 YPG on the season) but is that really helping? Better balance is a MUST plus the Dallas defense has been dreadful the last two weeks, allowing 39 and 38 points

The Cowboys have failed to cover 10 of their last 12 as a non-division home favorite but backing the Browns on the road is NOT an option. Yes, they own a winning record (2-1) for the FIRST time in 91 weeks but is that really a 'buy' sign? Cleveland's two wins have come over 0-2-1 Cincinnati (2-14 in 2019) and 1-2 Washington (3-13 in 2019) and come in  5-36 SU on the road since the start of the 2015 season (also: Browns are 6-15 ATS their last 21 vs NFC foes). Cowboys "get this one right" and win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The 1-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 1-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Saints come in off back-to-back losses, having lost consecutive games for the first time in THREE years. As for the Lions, they are well familiar with consecutive losses but Detroit just ended an 11-game, 11-month losing streak with last Sunday's 26-23 upset of the Cardinals in the desert (game-winning 39-yard FG came on the game's final play).

The Saints had hoped that WR Michael Thomas would return from a groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but he was ruled out late Friday. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. He's been missed, although Brees is completing 70.2% for 760 yards with six TDs and just one INT (106.2 QB rating). In fact, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. RB Alvin Kamara didn't agree to a contract extension until right before the opening of the 2020 season but he enters this game leading the Saints in rushing with 153 yards and three TDs plus also leads the team in receiving with 27 catches for 285 yards and three TDs (he owns NFL-high six TDs from scrimmage).

The Lions finally ended an 11-game slide with last Sunday's win. The Lions were outgained 377-322 by the Cardinals, as the game's key stat was Detroit picking off Arizona QB Kyler Murray three times, while the Detroit offense did not turn the ball over even once. Matt Stafford had a solid game (270 yards passing with two TDs) but Detroit is still struggling to run the ball. Adrian Peterson is the team's featured back but Detroit ran for just 90 yards against the Cards, averaging 3.3 YPG. A.P. has 209 yards rushing (4.9 YPV) but does not have a rushing TD and the team comes in rushing for only 105.7 YPG. Detroit's defense is allowing 30.7 PPG on 409.3 YPG (both totals rank near the bottom of all NFL teams).

Embattled Detroit head coach Matt Patricia could really use  two straight victories, as Green Bay and Chicago are both 3-0 atop the NFC North. "It's a huge difference between being 2-2 and the alternative," Lions running back Adrian Peterson acknowledged. He's got that right. Getting back to New Orleans, the Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). The Saints sure don't want to fall to 1-3 and New Orleans does enter this contest having gone 12-4 (75%) ATS its last 16 as a road favorite. As for the Lions, they did eke out a win last week but as noted, that ended an 11-game losing streak in which they were 2-9 ATS. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

It's NOT exactly Brady vs Brees like in Week 1, when the Bucs played the Saints but  Sunday's Week contest between the Jags and Browns will feature Garner Minshew vs Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He opened his sophomore season completing 73.8 percent for 787 yards with six TDs and three INTs (101.3 QB rating). You may just have heard about Burro, last year's Heisman winner who led LSU to a 15-0 season and the national championship, then was the overall No. 1 pick by the Bengals. He has opened his rookie season completing 64.5 percent for 821 yards with five TDs and just one INT (more modest 89.0 QB rating). Both QBs have shaky offense lines, leading Minshew to be sacked 10 times and Burrow has suffered 14 sacks. Neither QB gets much help from their respective running games, as the Jags are averaging 109.3 YPG on the ground, while the Bengals are averaging a woeful 79.3 YPG.

The Jags no longer have RB Fournette, who topped 1,000 yards rushing in TWO of his three seasons with the Jags, including 1,152 last year.  Rookie James Robinson has become the team's featured back and has 210 yards on the ground with all three of the team's rushing TDs on a solid 4.9 YPC. He's also added 10 catches for 129 yards. So far, he's been a better-than-expected replacement. Good news for the Jags is that DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), is expected to play, after missing last week's game (7 catches / 15.6 YPC / 1 TD). Fellow WRs Cole has 15 catches and to TDs but averages only 9.9 YPC, while Shenault has 11 catches and one TD but averages only 9.5 YPC. The Jacksonville D is allowing a middle-of-the-pack 364.3 YPG but also 28.0 PPG.

Cincy RB Mixon has 164 yards rushing (about 70% of the team's total, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. Bernard is listed as a RB but has just TWO carries on the season and he's basically a receiving option out of the backfield (12 catches) in 2020. WR Boyd leads with 21 catches and former star Green has 13 catches but a sad 8.9 YPC average. His first five seasons he averaged 983 catches per, topping 1,000 yards in each while hauling in 45 TDs. If Burrow can't get him back in form, Green may soon be an ineffective player. The Cincy D is allowing 392.3 YPG but a few less points than Jacksonville's D, at 24.7 PPG.

It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'implode,' going 2-10 the rest of the wat-y. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-2 start this season means the Jags are 9-22  since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-12 on the road. The Bengals made FIVE straight postseason appearances under QB Andy Dalton from 2011-15 but lost each time in their first playoff game. FOUR straight losing seasons followed, including 2019's 2-14 disaster. That gave them the No. 1 pick, which the team used to take Burrow.

How will the "Burrow era" play out? TBD. The Bengals have plenty of weaknesses but they've been in ALL three games, losing 16-13 at home to the Chargers in Week 1 (led 13-6 in the 4th quarter), 35-30 at Cleveland in Week 2 and almost beat the Eagles last Sunday in Philly, settling for a 23-23 tie in OT (Eagles tied the game on a 75-yard TD drive with 21 seconds to go).  I REALLY like what I've seen from Burrow and I'm betting that Week 4 will 'be the charm,' as Joe gets his first NFL win as a starting QB.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of  18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards  / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football?

The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win.

It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG).

The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. 

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. 

Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field.

Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up.

Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory.

I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Featured Sunday Total of the Week is on TB/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

Obviously, one of the NFL's biggest storylines entering the 2020 season (not counting COVID-19) was Tom Brady leaving New England (after some moderate success) and landing in Tampa Bay with the Bucs. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp were that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He also brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). However, Brady's been pretty mediocre, throwing for just 456 yards after two games with as many INTs (three) as TD passes (three). Going back to last season, Brady enters this contest having thrown interceptions in each of his last four starts, three of them being Pick-6s! As for Gronk, it would be a HUGE understatement to say he is off to a slow start in Tampa. He has just two catches for 11 yards and was held without a catch last week for just the FIFTH time in his 117-game career.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. The Broncos were outplayed by Tennessee in Week 1 but lost just 16-14 when Gostkowski missed three FGs and an extra-point. In Week 2 at Pittsburgh, Drew Lock went down with a shoulder) injury but Jeff Driskel (256 passing yards with two TDs and one INT) led an unlikely comeback despite taking six sacks and absorbing 17 hits. Denver trailed by 14 points at halftime and by 12 in the fourth quarter but was 15 yards away from a stunning upset before Edmunds came off the edge and sent Driskel to the turf one last time.

Looking at this contest, I see a much higher scoring game than the total indicates. Brady OVERDUE for a "big game," as his Gronk. As for RB Leonard Fournette, who signed with the Bucs earlier this month, he ran for 103 yards in Week 2 (on 8.6 YPC) with two TDs. Fournette may also just remember running for 225 yards on 29 carries in the Jaguars' 26-24 win at Denver a year ago. Yes, Jeff Driskel gets his first start for Denver and is seeking just his SECOND career win, which would be only 248 fewer than Brady. Fans are absent (for the most part) in 2020 but the Broncos may have a big home-field edge with teams coming in even later and having no time to adjust to the elevation. Denver is on a 9-2-1 ATS a home dog, so don't be surprised if they are in this all the way. What's more, Driskel is going against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 28.1 PPG. last season plus its pass D allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. Tampa's D may be slightly better than last year's unit but not MUCH better. I expect BOTH Brady AND Driskel to play well. This one is Goin' OVER!

Good luck...Larr

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans.

Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era,  at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games.

Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice.

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to  WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019).

Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET.

Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.

The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997.

I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.'

The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93  yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win.

As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,.

I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost).

Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day.

Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards.

Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25.

Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Ten Over at 1:00 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Wednesday afternoon Wednesday 

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio).

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions.

Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards.

The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET.

The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!).

Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a  seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons.

Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points.

The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs

These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed  by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!).

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013.

Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets.

Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season  in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached.

Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake  and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense.

The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke.

The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs.

The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see.

The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game.

These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET.

This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs.

The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016).

Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "Featured" Total of the Week is on NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East.

The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020.

Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota.

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions.

Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month (Super Bowl LIV) is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended the regular season on a 12-game winning streak to enter as the AFC's No. 1 seed at 14-2. San Francisco survived in Week 17 at Seattle, holding on (by inches) for a 26-21 win at Seattle to finish 13-3 and earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. If the two No. 1 seeds had advanced to the Super Bowl, we were looking at a replay of Super XLVII (nicknamed the Harbaugh Bowl), when Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 to win the 2012 title. However, the Ravens were upset by the Titans, so on Championship Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl I loomed, if KC could win (as expected) over Tennessee and the Packers could upset the 49ers. KC held up its end but Green Bay (much to my chagrin) were NO match for San Francisco. The leaves us with the 49ers looking to match the Pats and Steelers with the franchise's SIXTH Super Bowl title, after becoming only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games. The 1999 St Louis Rams also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. Not to be outdone in "the history" department, the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl 50 years after last appearing in one. The Chiefs played in and won Super Bowl IV 16-7 over the Vikings, the final Super Bowl prior to the AFL-NFL merger. That 50-year span sets a record for longest stretch between Super Bowl appearances for any club (note: As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs also played in Super I, losing to Lombardi's Packers, 35-10).

San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Niners D has been "back in form" in the postseason, holding the Vikings to 147 yards and just seven FDs (Minnesota was 2 of 12 on 3rd downs and 0 of 2 on 4th downs). The Packesr did gain 358 yards in teh NFC championship game but trailed 27-0 at the half and two 4th-quarter TD drives accounted for 167 of the team's total of 358 yards. San Francisco averaged 29.2 PPG on the season (2nd) and its running game, second-best to only Baltimore's in the regular season at 144.1 YPG, has led the way in the playoffs.The 49ers controlled the game vs the Vikings with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards) and then 'exploded' vs the Packers by rushing for 285 yards (6.8 YPA). Mostert set a team playoff record with 220 yards and four TDs. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession but finished just 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT vs Minnesota. He was no more than a 'spectator' in the win over Green Bay, going 6 of eight for 77 yards (no TDs or INTs).

KC has thrilled its fans in reaching this season's "ultimate" game. The Chiefs fell behind Houston 24-0 but then scored a TD on SEVEN consecutive possessions in a 51-31 win. They then fell behind Tennessee 10-0 and 17-7, before again taking control. KC scored 28 straight points to open a 35-17 lead and win, 35-24. Leading the way is the NFL's most exciting (best?) QB, Patrick Mahomes. His performances have been dazzling, as he's completed EXACTLY 23 of 35 passes in both wins, throwing for 615 yards with eight TDs and not a single INT. He's also been KC's leading rusher (106 yards / 7.1 YPA), including a SPECTACULAR 27-yeard TD scamper right before the half vs the Titans. RB Damien Williams has been acquitted himself quite well, rushing for 92 yards (three TDs) while adding seven catches and one TD. TE Kelce was a 'beast' vs Houston (10 catches for 134 yards and three TDs) but then took a 'backseat' to WRs Watkins and Hill vs Tennessee. Watkins caught seven passes for 114 yards and one TD, with Hill adding five catches and two TDs. KC's D struggled during the first part of the season but held opponents to just 11.5 PPG during the team's six-game winning streak to end the regular season. KC's defense was hit hard by Houston early but shut down the Texans in the second half, allowing just SEVEN points. It was deja vu all over again against Tennessee, as the Titans were also held to just seven second-half points. More notable, Titans RB Henry came into the AFC championship game averaging 196.0 YPG rushing (7.1 YPA) in his previous three games but KC completely shut him down, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries (3.6 YPA).

Kansas City has won EIGHT straight games, all by SEVEN points or more, with its average winning margin being 16.1 PPG. Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo (a glorified game-manager) is a "no-brainer." Yes, San Francisco's running game is superb but the Chiefs are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry during their last six games plus Kansas City has limited long completions and the Niners' WRs leave a  lot to be desired (TE Kittle is the biggest threat). What's more, KC's pass rush has been greatly upgraded with the return from injury of premier DT Chris Jones and the late-season signing of veteran DE Terrell Suggs.

Mostert had a game for the ages against the Packers in the NFC championship game and NO WAY he comes ANYWHERE close to that kind of performance, here. I'm not going to 'beat up' on Jimmy G but c'mon, him vs Mahomes? The only QBs the 49ers faced who can be compared to Mahomes this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The Saints scored 46 points against the 49ers, the Falcons scored 29 points at San Francisco and won, while the Seahawks averaged 24 points and were inches away from a TD that would have given them a season sweep. Garoppolo doesn’t have the arm, touch, mobility and craftiness Mahomes possesses. Garoppolo also doesn’t have the speed and depth the Chiefs have at the WR position. This could get 'ugly' for San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, they will become only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games.The Niners lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the year in Week 3 of the 2018 season and 'limped' to a 4-12 record. However, the team is now ONE win away from joining the 1999 St Louis Rams who also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. That said, the Packers have a pretty good story themselves, as Packers opemend teh 2019 season off back-to-back losing seasons (7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in 2018), for the first time since 1990 and 1991. At the start of the current season, Green Bay playing in the NFC championship game was only slightly more far-fetched than San Francisco doing so

These teams played earlier this season in Week 12 in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers lost a fumble on Green Bay's first possession, setting up a two-yard TD drive that gave San Francisco the lead. The Niners then broke it open with long TD passes to Deebo Samuel late in the second quarter and to George Kittle in the third quarter of a 37-8 win. Rodgers threw for just 104 yards (career-worst 3.2 YPA) and got sacked five times. The loss left Green Bay at 8-3 but the Packers would end the regular season by winning their last FIVE games, allowing just 14.2 PPG to claim the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Niners were 10-1 after that win and went 3-2 the rest of the way, holding the Seahawks inches away from a TD in the fianl seconds of Week 17, claiming the NFC's top-seed. San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG.

However, San Francisco's defense humbled the vikings last weekend (Saturday), holding Minnesota to 147 total yards in a 27-10 win. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession and finished 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT. San Francisco's running game ranked second to only Baltimore's in the regular season and controlled the game with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards). Getting back to the San Francisco D, Minnesota was held to just seven FDs and was 2 of 13 on third downs plus 0-2 on fourth down tries. Green Bay played last Sunday and dominated Seattle in the first half, taking a 21-3 lead. The Packers led 28-10 in the late 3rd quarter but Russell Wilson NEVER gives up. Seattle cut it to 28-17 and then to 28-23, before missing a two-point try. Seattle only got the ball back ONCE after that (four plays) plus Rodgers converted two HUG third downs late, sealing the win.

These two franchises have combined for NINE Super Bowl titles and have a rich history when it comes to the playoffs. This will be their EIGHT meeting in the past 25 postseasons, three more than any other rivalry. In fact, the only other matchup to occur more often is Cowboys-Rams, which happened nine times. So here we are. I doubt anyone thinks the 49ers will rout the Packers again. Then again, maybe some do. Count me as one who DOES NOT!

Taking Jimmy G over Kirk Cousins is one thing but over Aaron Rodgers in an NFC title, while laying a TD? As of Friday afternoon, there were 7.5s galore. Rodgers had an off year, but threw for 4,002 yards (Jimmy G had 3,978) with 26 TDs and just four INTs (Jimmy G's ratio was 27-13). In the Division Round, Rodgers was 16-of-27 for 243 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (113.7 QB rating), while Jimmy G was 11-of-19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT (74.7 rating). San Francisco's running game has better depth but Green Bay's Aaron Jones (1,084 rush yards, 474 receiving yards and 19 total TDs) will be the best RB of the field. Kittle's a terrific TE and gets the edge over the aging Jimmy Graham but the best WR on the field (by far!) is Davante Adams, who had eight catches for 180 yards (2 TDs) vs Seattle. San Francisco's D gets the edge but I don't think by much. Remember the Niners' second-half troubles and Green Bay's D finishing by allowing 14.2 PPG its final five games. Is shutting down Kirk Cousins proof it can be done to Rodgers/. Especially, when Rodgers not only has great motivation to "make up for" for his Week 12 'nightmare' plus he also has to realize his Super Bowl 'window' is closing.

One final reference to Green Bay's Week 12 loss at San Francisco. Discount that contest and know that the Packers were 8-0 SU  & ATS against EVERY other above-.500 team they faced in 2019. I'm grabbing the points and hoping we see a Super Bowl I rematch, Green Bay-Kansas City (note: I have NO play on Ten/KC on Sunday).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

The 13-3 Green Bay Packers rebounded from 6-9-1 season in 2018 to earn the NFC's No. 2 seed. That gave teh Pack a first round bye and now a home game against the 5th-seeded Seattle Seahawks, who got past the injury-depleted Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, 17-9. Seattle win last Sunday gave them an NFL-best 8-1 record on the road, as do-everything QB Russell Wilson threw for 325 yards and a TD plus added a team-high 45 on the ground. Aaron Rodgers is nearly 10 years removed from his lone Super Bowl title but the 36-year-old feels Green Bay is poised to make another run at the championship.

Wilson was te driving force behind the Seattle offense all season, as he threw for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just six INTs (106.3). He was backed by a strong running game for most of the season (137.5 YPG ranked 4th) but one-by-one, Seattle RBs got hurt and last Sunday, Homer and Lynch ran for just 19 yards on 17 carries. Lockett was Wilson's favorite target during the season (82 catches / 12.9 YPC / 8 Tds but Sunday it was Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs), who was the star. The second-round WR set an NFL postseason rookie record with 160 yards receiving on seven catches, including a 53-yard TD in the third quarter. "It was fun and it was scary at the same time. The way the season's been going, this team, you know I didn't want this to be our last time playing football," the 22-year-old said. Seattle's defense is no longer referred to as "the Legion of Boom," as it allowed 24.9 PPG (22nd) but the D held Philly to just three FGs and 282 total yards, while getting SEVEN sacks!

Rodgers was NOT great in 2019 but he did top 4,000 yards (4,002) and had 26 TDs compared to just FOUR interceptions. RB Aaron Jones had a breakout season, rushing for 1,084 yards (4.6 YPA / 16 TDs) plus caught 49 passes for 474 yards with three TDs. WR Adams played in just 12 games but led the way with 83 catches. FIVE more players caught between 34 and 49 passes, as Jones led that group while TE Jimmy Graham had just 38 receptions in 2019 to mark his lowest total since his rookie year in 2010. The Green Bay offense was middle-of-the-pack all season, averaging 23.5 PPG (15th) on 345.5 YPG (18th). The defense more than held up its own, allowing 19.6 PPG (9th).

For all Seattle's road success this season, the Seahawks have lost EIGHT straight at Lambeau Field and are 1-9 all time in the Packers' stadium. Wilson is 0-3 as a starter at Lambeau with a passer rating of 60.4. Wilson has completed just 55 of 96 his passes (57.3%) for 604 yards with SIX interceptions and just three TDs. What's more, Seattle lost a heart-breaker at home on Dec 29 against the 49ers (could have won NFC West with a win) and then had to fly cross-country to play the Eagles in a Sunday afternoon playoff game. The Seahawks returned to the West Coast after that win and now flies to the Midwest to face Green Bay. That kind of traveling can take a toll. One more thing, the forecast calls for a kickoff temperature in the low 20s, but a potential winter storm is shaping up to arrive in the region Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and up to 10 inches of snow.NONE of this helps the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature' LEGEND Play is on the SF 49ers at 4:35 ET.

Neither the Vikings nor 49ers were in the postseason last year but are two of FOUR teams left in the NFC as the meet at Levi's Stadium on Saturday in the Divisional Round. The Vikings finished 10-6 to earn the No. 6 seed in the NFC and last Sunday, knocked the 13-3 Saints out of the playoffs with a 26-20 OT win in New Orleans. RB Dalvin Cook gained 130 yards from scrimmage (94 yards on the ground with two TDs), after missing the last two regular-season games with a shoulder injury. Kirk Cousin, with a reputation for NOT winning in prime time or against the league's better teams, passed for 242 yards without an interception. He finished with 242 yards and in OT, threw a "perfect" 43-yard pass to Adam Thielen that set up his four-yard game-winning TD pass to TE Rudolph. It was Minnesota's first road playoff win since Jan 9, 2005 (2004 season), when the Vikings beat the rival Packers at Lambeau Field in the wild-card round. The Vikings now get to play top seed San Francisco on Saturday.

The 49er were just 4-12 last season, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season in Week 3. However,  Garoppolo was healthy all season (more later) and the 49ers rode their defense and a 'soft' first-half schedule to open the season 8-0. The 49ers' 5-3 record in the second half was good enough for them to finish 13-3 and via tie-breakers, earn the NFC's top seed. A closer look at San Francisco' second half reveals a heart-breaking 30-27 home OT loss to Seattle (49ers had multiple chances to win), a 20-17 loss at Baltimore (which ended the season on a 14-game winning streak) and a "are you kidding me" 29-22 loss to the Falcons in Week 15 (need to see it to believe it!). Tfive wins came over Arizona, a rout of the 13-3 Packers, a "Game of the Year" 48-46 win at New Orleans, a 34-31 win over last year's NFC champs (Rams) and a thrilling 26-21 win at Seattle, avenging that OT loss and clinching the No. 1 seed. DON'T sell the 49ers short.

Kirk Cousins completed 69.1 % of. his passes this season, throwing for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs (career high 107.4 QB rating). Dalvin Cook (1,135 rushing yards /  4.5 YPA / 13 TDs) plus caught 53 passes for 519 yards. He's one of the league's best all-purpose backs and one only need to look at Minnesota's MNF Week 16 loss to Green Bay (Cook sat out) to see his value. Diggs led the team in receptions (63), YPC (17.9) and tied for a team-high with six TDs. Thielen was able to play in just 10 games and caught a modest 30 passes (also six TDs) and his value was on display last Sunday (when healthy), as he caught seven for 129 yards. TE Rudolph (39) and his backup Smith (36) both contributed, with Rudolph tying Diggs and Thielen with six TD catches. The Minnesota D doesn't get enough credit but it allowed just 18.9 PPG (6th-best). Just ask Brees about the Viking D, which held him to 208 yards and a QB rating of 49.6 (note: Not counting Week 2 when Brees left after five attempts, the future HOFer had QB ratings of over 100 in EIGHT of 10 starts!).

Garoppolo is 21-5 as a starter in the NFL (19-2 with the 49ers) and that's been his 'calling card." I've questioned his talent before but he's thrown for more yards than Cousins (3,978), while also completing 69.1% His 27-13 ratio is not far off Cousin's and his QB rating is 102.0. The 49ers don't have a RB in the class of Cook but the trio of Mostert, Brieda and Coleman took turns contributing throughout the season, as San Francisco's 144.1 YPG ground was second to only Baltimore all-time record of 3.296 rushing yards (206.0 YPG). TE Kittle (85 catches / 5 TDs) is the team's best pass-catcher but Samuel (57 catches / 14.1 YPC) and Sanders, are capable. Sanders caught 36 passes in 10 games (after being acquired from Denver) and remember, he averaged 85 catches for 1,200 yards and 20 TD catches from 2014-16 with the Broncos. Yes, San Francisco's D dropped off in the second half, after allowing only 11.0 PPG through its first seven games but when all the dust had settled, San Francisco ranked second in total D (281.8 YPG) and 8th in scoring at 19.4 PPG.

Kudos to Minnesota for winning at New Orleans but should we now ignore this factoid? The  Vikings visit Levi Stadium (outdoors, unlike New Orleans' dome), having gone 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16 road games against a winning team in an outdoor stadium!! The San Francisco pass DS was No. 1 in allowing only 169.2 YPG, while Minnesota's downfield pass coverage has had more than just occasional  problems this season. South Carolina rookie Deebo Samuel and vet Emmanuel Sanders allow Garoppolo to look downfield more (plus use TE Kittle over the middle) and that's why the 49ers were able to average 29.2 PPG, second to again, only Baltimore. "I'm just glad Kirk can't win big games, apparently," Rudolph 'crowed' after his game-winning TD grab against the Saints. "We proved that one wrong today." My bet is that Rudolph will 'eat' those words come Saturday evening!

Good luck...Larry

My NFC 10* Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks (moneyline) at 4:40 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'rescued' their season by winning FOUR straight games to end the regular season, all against division rivals. The Eagles beat the Giants twice, the Redskins once and the Cowboys in a key Week 16 showdown, giving them the NFC East (Least?) title with a 9-7 record. Philly is the No. 4 seed and that means the team draws the NFC's No. 5 seed, which is the 11-5 Seattle Seahawks. Seattle would have secured home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs had tight end Jacob Hollister crossed the goal line on his fourth-down catch in the waning moments of a 26-21 loss to San Francisco last Sunday. Seattle's stupid five-yard penalty shortly before that, was an even bigger flub! Anyway, a matter of a few inches now results in an approximate 2,400-mile trek from the Emerald City to the City of Brotherly Love.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson has had a remarkable season, considering (more in a bit). He's thrown for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs, giving him a 106.3 QB rating. Wilson 'keeps ticking' despite devastating injuries to the team's running game. Chris Carson (1,230 yards / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs), Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise have all endured season-ending injuries over the last three weeks. Marshawn Lynch was summoned from retirement and rushed for 34 yards and a TD last Sunday, while rookie Travis Homer added 62 on the ground and caught five passes for 30 yards. Russell's top targets are Lockett (82 catches / 8 TDs) and second-year player Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs). The offense NEEDS to produce, as Seattle's once-proud defense is a mere shell of its former self, allowing 24.9 PPG (22nd) on 381.6 YPG (26th).

The Eagles know "all about" playing through injuries. WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are all done for the season (Jackson only played three games). TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (58 catches / 5 TDs) have stepped up "big time" but Ertz missed last Sunday and is no better than questionable for this game. Rookie RB Miles Sanders  (818 rushing yards / 50 catches for 509 yards) had a terrific season but hurt his ankle last Sunday (he is listed as probable and says he will play). RB Boston Scott (practice squad) "saved the day" last Sunday vs the Giants, scoring three TDs in the second-half of Philly's "must win" 34-17 victory over the Giants. Carson Wentz has endured all season, throwing for 4,039 yards with 27 TDs and just seven INTs. Philly's defense has gotten healthier week by week and ended the regular season allowing 22.1 PPG (15th) on 331.7 YPG (10th).

Carson Wentz was forced to watch from the sideline as Nick Foles became a local legend, leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the franchise's first Super Bowl title two years ago. Wentz was a spectator again last season when Foles rallied the Eagles to three straight wins, an unlikely playoff berth and a wild-card victory. Wentz avoided injuries while seemingly everyone around him went down, set franchise passing records and led the Eagles (9-7) to four consecutive wins down the stretch and their second NFC East title in three seasons. Now, it's "his time." However, the Eagles finished Week 17 missing seven starters on offense. Philly's here only because the NFC East is a 'joke.' the team's four-game winning streak, all against division rivals, came over the the 4-12 Giants (the twice), the 3-13 Redskins and the dysfunctional 8-8 Cowboys. Meanwhile, Seattle lost out on the NFC's No. 1 seed by a "matter of inches" and posted a NFL-best 7-1 road record this season. Seattle won 17-9 at Philly in Week 12, giving Russell Wilson a 4-0 career record over the Eagles. What changes here? NOTHING!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.

The New England Patriots jumped out to an 8-0 start but were humbled 37-20 at Baltimore in a SNF game in Week 9. The Pats managed to win FOUR of their next six games (just 3-3 ATS) and were all but penciled in for a first-round bye, as all they needed was to beat lowly Miami at home in their regular-season home finale to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC. However, as a 17.5-point favorite, the Pats lost 27-24 and now New England will play in the wild-card round for the first time since 2009. Coming to Foxoboro on Saturday night will be the 9-7 Tennessee Titans, who saw their season 'turn' when former Heisman-winner Marcus Mariota was benched in favor of former Miami QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans' 16-0 loss at Denver left the team at 2-4 but Tannehill's play at QB coupled with the running of  Derrick Henry, saw Tennessee go 7-3 (6-3-1 ATS) over its final 10 games to earn the AFC's final playoff spot.

Tannehill finished the regular season completing 70.3 percent for 2,742 yards with 22 TDs and six INTs, as his QB rating of 117.5 was tops among all QBs. Rookie A.J. Brown caught 52 passes for a 20.2 YPC average with eight TDs. RB Henry topped 100 yards in FIVE of his last six games. He sat out Week 16 but returned in Week 17 to run for 211 yards with three TDs in the 35-14 win at Houston that nailed down the AFC's No. 6 seed. Henry averaged 149.3 YPG over his final five game to surpass Cleveland Nick Chubb to lead the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards (5.1 YPA / 16 TDs). FYI...He averaged 146.3 YPG in his last four contests of 2018 (it's becoming a tradition!). The Tennessee D allows 20.7 PPG (12th) but its pass D is shaky, allowing 255.0 YPG to rank 24th.

There is NOTHING shaky about the New England defense, as despite its late collapse vs Miami last Sunday, the Pats finished No. 1 in the NFL in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG). New England has needed its defense in 2019, as its offense has fallen off. Brady did throw for 4,057 yards with 24 TDs and just eight INTs but his QB rating of 88.0 was far below his usual standards. Edelman had 100 catches but the receiving corps, as a whole, is one of the worst of Brady's career (RB White had 72 catches and was the ONLY other player with more than 30 catches). Michel ran for 912 yards (just 3.7 YPA) and no other RB had more than 302 rushing yards. The Pats rank 18th with 106.4 YPG rushing on 3.8 YPA.

Many are calling for the Pats to struggle here but I'm NOT one of them. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowl rings in eight seasons with New England under coach Bill Belichick and said, "This is about the Titans and our preparation to go up there and face a team that’s won three Super Bowls in the last five years. They’re 8-0 at home (in the playoffs) in that span. They’ve got the No. 1 defense. They’ve got the best coach. They’ve got the best QB. So it’s quite a challenge.” Well said. Ryan Tannehill saw plenty of New England during his tenure with Miami and he has few good memories. It's early January in New England and in a Brady vs Tannehill QB matchup, as well as a HC matchup of Belichick ( SIX Super Bowl rings and 31 playoff wins) vs Vrabel (1st-ever postseason game as a head coach), am I really going to "step in front of" the Pats? Oh by the way, New England is coming off a loss (not just ANY loss but a near-historic one) and they are a remarkable 43-17 ATS (that's 71.7%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. In a tribute to Archie Bunker, I'll say "Case Closed!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 4:35 ET.

The 10-6 Houston Texans have won the AFC South title in in 2019 for the FOURTH time in the last five season but Bill O'Brien's team has just ONE playoff victory in its three postseason appearances. Houston wrapped up the AFC South title with a Week 16 victory in Tampa Bay, allowing head coach O'Brien to rest QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins during the team's regular-season finale against Tennessee, one in which the Titans won going away, 35-14. The Buffalo Bills matched Houston with a 10-6 mark, good enough to earn the AFC's top wild card spot. It marks Buffalo's second playoff appearance in three seasons, after a playoff drought that lasted 17 years. The Bills had the No. 5 seed wrapped up heading into Week 17 and QB Josh Allen received an early exit in Buffalo's 13-6 home loss to the Jets. The Bills travel to Houston in search of the franchise's first playoff win since a 37-22 win over Miami in a wild card game back on Dec 30, 1995. The Bills have lost all FIVE postseason games since that victory.

Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio. However, he has also run for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. Allen has helped the Bills rushing game average 128.4 YPG (8th). Vet Frank Gore (599 yards but just 3.6 YPA) was the main man erarly on but the Bills have begun to lean on RB Devin Singletary and the rookie has paid dividends with 775 yards on 5.1 YPA. Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (72 / 14.7 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (67 / 6 TDs). The Bills' bread and butter resides with their defense, which is allowing 16.2 PPG (2nd) on 298.3 YPG (3rd).

Houston QB Deshaun Watson is looking for his first playoff win after struggling in his playoff debut last season, a 21-7 loss to the Colts. When he's on, he's quite superb but he too often reminds us of Jameis Winston (that may be too cold!). Watson has completed 67.3% for 3,852 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He's also run for 413 yards and seven TDs. The preseason injury to Lamar Smith was supposed to cripple Houston's running game but Carlos Hyde has run for 1,070 yards (4.4 YPA), as Houston is right behind Buffalo in rushing for 125.6 YPG (9th). WR DeAndre Hopkins (104 catches / 7 TDs) was just named 1st-team All Pro and the really good news is that Will Fuller V (49 catches in 11 games) returned to practice this week after injuring his groin in Week 16. Note that the Texans own an 8-3 record and have averaged 26.3 points in games in which Fuller has played this season, as opposed to a 2-3 mark with a 19.6 point average in contests that he has missed. Houston's D is NOT a strength, as the Texans have allowed 24.1 PPG (19th) on 388.3 YPG (28th). However, J.J. Watt will return to the field a little more than two months after surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle in Saturday's game. Watt was a rookie in the 2011 playoffs when his spectacular performance against the Cincinnati Bengals led the Houston Texans to the first postseason win in franchise history. That game was tied at 10-all in the second quarter when Watt tipped a pass from Andy Dalton and grabbed it for an interception, which he returned 29 yards for a TD to put Houston on top for good. The DE also had four tackles, a sack and a quarterback hit in the 31-10 victory.

If one believes in "omens" (good or bad), Watt's return spells G-O-O-D news for the Texans. The Buffalo D is top-notch but the Bills haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their last four games. Allen is a gutty guy but the Bills just have too many offensive limitations to back them in a road playoff game at this price. With Baltimore awaiting the "lucky winner" of this one, maybe bowing out here won't be all that bad. I say the "unlucky winner' with be the home team and the final comes with more than enough "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 NFC West is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West title is on the line when the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-3) visit the second-place Seattle Seahawks (11-4) on Sunday night. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a victory but a Seattle win would give the Seahawks the division title as they won the first meeting with the 49ers. That first meeting was a Week 10  MNF "classic," in which the Seahawks won 30-27 in OT (FYI...I had Seattle as my Nov Game of the Month!). The stakes are clearly high, as the 49ers will either be the NFC's top-seed (getting home field all the way and earning a bye next weekend), or they will be the No. 5 seed, which would mean a road game next weekend at the NFC East winner (Dallas of Philly). Meanwhile, a season sweep would assure Seattle of at least the No. 3 seed, avoiding a road game next weekend vs that NFC East winner.

Jimmy Garoppolo has gained his "rep" by producing a 20-5 record as an NFL starter, not by putting up 'monster' passing stats. However, he has thrown 27 TD passes against just 13 INTs this season, while throwing for 3,693 yards. If he can throw for 307 yards against Seattle, he would  to join Jeff Garcia (franchise-record 4,278) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (two 4,000-yard campaigns) as the only San Francisco QBs to reach 4,000 yards in a single season. San Francisco is averaging 30.2 PPG (2nd-most) and Jimmy G has had lots of help from his running game this season,as three RBs have battled injuries to rush for between 533 and 715 yards. As a team, only the Ravens (Lamar and Mark) have run for more YPG than San Francisco's 145.1. San Francisco's WRs are nothing more than average (kudos to Jimmy G for making due), although TE Kittle (78 catches) is one of the best in the business. San Francisco's defense has fell off lately (more in a bit) but it enters this final game of the regular season allowing 277.4 YPG (2nd) and 19.3 PPG (8th).

Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a strong contender for MVP honors for most of the season but Lamar Jackson's play  has left all contenders "in the dust." That said, Wilson has thrown for 3,877 yards with 29 TDs and just five INTs, while rushing for 313 yards with three more TDs. For most of the season, he's been buoyed by an excellent rushing attack, led by Chris Carson (1,230 / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs). However, Seattle's RB situation is a mess after starter Carson (hip) and reserve C.J. Prosise (arm) were hurt last week to join main backup Rashaad Penny (knee) on the injured list. Seattle signed two former team members in Marshawn Lynch (2010-15) and Robert Turbin (2012-14) to support new starter Travis Homer. I guess Curt Warner was NOT available! Seattle's defense no longer bears the moniker "Legion of Boom," as the unit is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) on 380.5 YPG (26th).

OK, so what's the play, you ask? Yes, Seattle is banged up but let's go back and take a look at that "dominant" San Francisco defense. After allowing only 11 points per game the first seven contests, the Niners have given up 26.5 points PPG over their last eight contests (that's the NINTH-worst total in the league during that span!). Feeling a little better about my Seattle pick? How about trying this stat on? First, let me note that Seattle's home field is one of the loudest in the NFL and Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in it for the first time, as he missed last season's visit because of a torn ACL. How have the 49ers fared in the Great Pacific Northwest? Not so well. The 49ers have lost EIGHT straight visits to Seattle, including the 2013 NFC Championship Game! Seattle gets to stay home next week with a win and would earn the No. 2 seed if the Packers lose (earning a bye) and the No. 1 seed if the Saints lose, as well (hardly likely). As for  the 49ers, I expect them to lose, which means they are off to Dallas or Philadelphia. 

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC West) is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos and Raiders met in Week 1 of the 2-019 season, in the second half of a MNF doubleheader. Oakland won 24-16 in that contest as a 2 1/2-point home dog (I had the Raiders, capping a 4-1 opening week!).  Here's how I opened my analysis of that contest.

Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12.

The Raiders enter this contest 7-8 and the Broncos at 6-9. However, thanks to the Steelers and Titans each losing in Week 16, the Raiders actually have a chance (more like a 'prayer') of earning the AFC's No. 6 seed. Here goes. To reach the playoffs, the Raiders need to beat the Broncos and get lots of help. That is; losses by the Titans and Steelers, a win by the Colts and a least a win by the Patriots, Bears, Chargers or Lions. Best of luck. However, NOTHING matters if the Raiders lose.

The Raiders still have a playoff 'prayer' because they beat equally forlorn Chargers 24-17 last Sunday, QB David Carr is completing 71.1% for 3,663 yards with 20 TDs and eight INTs (101.1 QB rating) but he has yet to throw for 300 yards in a SINGLE game this season. He's a "dink-and-dunker"  and other than Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs) he's got little to work with. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (from Alabama) has been terrific, running for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPA) and seven TDs but he missed last week's game with a shoulder injury and had surgery to treat a skin injection on his leg Wednesday. Hard to imagine him playing here. DeAndre Washington was a 'savior' last week filling in for Jacobs with a season-high 106 yards from scrimmage (do NOT expect a repeat effort, here!). Darren Waller is second in the league among tight ends with 1,038 yards and third with 84 receptions. He's the first Oakland TE to record 1,000 yards in a season since Todd Christensen in 1986. However, the team's two starting WRs Renfrow (43) and Williams (42) COMBINED to catch just one more catch than Waller. The Oakland defense has been near the bottom of the league all season and enters Week 17 ranked 27th in allowing 26.9 PPG.

The Broncos opened 0-4 (1-3 ATS) but since those early woes, Denver has gone a competitive 8-3 ATS. The signing of Flacco turned out to be a bust plus Brandon Allen hardly looked ready for "primetime." However, as the saying goes, "the third time's the charm!" Drew Lock, a second round pick from Missouri, is the first rookie in franchise history to win THREE of his first four starts. Lock is completing 64.8 percent of his passes with six TDs and three INTs. It appears he has all the tools to lead the franchise moving forward. RB Lindsay (958 / 4.7 YPA / 7 TDs)  will reach 1,000 yards on Sunday plus his backfield partner, Freeman, has 500 rushing yards and 42 catches. Similar to Oakland, Denver has a single pass-catching threat. In this case, it's WR Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs). The Fangio-coached defense has gotten healthier week-by-week and enters this contest ranking 10th in both points allowed (20.1 PPG) and yards allowed (327.2 YPG).

Why would anyone want to trust Oakland in this one? Heading into its game last Sunday vs the sad-sack Chargers, the Raiders had lost FOUR in a row by an average of 21.7 PPG. Try these stats on for size. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s and that has usually spelled doom for QB Derek Carr and the Raiders. Carr has lost NINE straight starts when it has been below 50 degrees. He owns a 65.9 passer rating in those games, compared to 94.7 in all others. As noted above, Fangio has this Denver defense playing "up to snuff" and one wonders if the unit did not suffer a bout with mono early in the season, just maybe the Broncos would have had an 8-8 or 9-7 season. We do KNOW that the Broncos are 6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS the last seven times hosting Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Shocker is on the NY Giants at 4:25 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles returned from their Week 10 bye to lose THREE in a row. At 5-7, Philly's postseason chances seemed dim. However, the Eagles have vaulted to the top of the NFC East by putting together a season-high three-game winning streak in defeating each team in their lackluster division. Philly's 17-9 win last Sunday against Dallas means the Eagles can wrap up the NFC East title with a win at the New York Giants. The Giants are just 4-11, after their 41-35 OT win last Sunday against the Redskins. If history is a guide, the Eagles are in good shape. They've beaten the Giants SIX straight times and in 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a "down" year but, he's thrown for 3.3750 yards on the season with 26 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 910 yards and six TDs and just one interception in wins over the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys. He's done all that (the last three weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (54 catches / 5 TDs) have been terrific but Ertz's availability for Sunday's game is in question after he sustained a broken rib against the Cowboys. "He is progressing, getting better. We'll keep monitoring him each day," head coach Doug Pederson said. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9 with an injured shoulder. However, he is expected to gain clearance to return to the backfield following a six-game absence. He'll be welcomed back but Miles Sanders has rolled up 328 scrimmage yards and three total TDs in his last two games. He has 766 rushing yards and 1,276 yards from scrimmage, with both totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (327.3 YPG) and 16th in scoring D (22.5 PPG).

The Giants ended a nine-game losing streak with 36-20 win at home in Week 15 over the Dolphins (Eli's last game with the Giants?) and then last Sunday, with rookie Daniel Jones back at QB, won 41-35 (OT) at Washington, as Jones (23 TDs / 11 TDs) passed for 352 yards with five TDs (zero INTs). More big news coming out of the Giants' last two wins is the return to "elite form" for RB  Saquan Barkley. He's run for 301 yards and three TDs in the back-to-back wins and now has 911 yards (4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) on the season, along with 49 catches. New York's WRs are finally healthy and Jones, Barkley and Co. will test Philly's improving defense. The Giants D is vulnerable (27.8 PPG ranks 29th), so it will be up to New York's offense to win this one.

The Giants gave the Eagles all they could handle when the teams three weeks ago, losing in overtime after being ahead by two TDs. In that one, the Giants had
old man Eli at QB plus Barkley not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain (was held to just 66 yards).  For this one, Barkley is back to 100 percent and Daniel Jones is fresh off a confidence-boosting effort last Sunday (see above for both). NOTHING has come easy for Philly this year and note that in the team's three-game winning streak, they needed to come back against both the Giants and Redskins, before slipping past the incompetent Cowboys. The Eagles' playoff fate is in their hands but a Philadelphia loss, coupled with Dallas win over Washington on Sunday, will spell the end of the Eagles' season. I see that as a very likely scenario.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Jax Over at 4:25 ET.

The abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck near the end of this year's preseason was a jolt to the Colts, who were coming off a 10-win season which also included a wild card win at Houston. However, the Colts would open the 2019 season 5-2, including wins over eventual division winners KC and Houston. QB Jacoby Brissett played MUCH better than expected and Marlon Mack led one of the league's best running games. Indy's good fortune did not last though, as the Colts lost SIX of their next seven games, before beating hapless Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. Indy now hopes to win here at Jacksonville, to finish 8-8.

The Jags "gave up" on Blake Bortles and signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract in March but Foles broke his left clavicle in the first quarter of the team's Week 1 game. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and completed his first 13 passes (finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs). Minshew was reasonably effective at QB and the Jags reached the mid-point of the season at 4-4 but has since lost SIX of seven, winning only in Week 15 at Oakland 20-16, after trailing 16-3 at the half. The 5-10 Jags will finish with a losing record for the EIGHTH time in nine seasons. "A very disappointing year," head coach Doug Marrone told reporters. "It's difficult when a team is not doing well. You want your team to be doing well so your fans can have some pride and joy. ... I'm truly sorry that I've let so many people down and that I couldn't have done a better job."

The Colts were embarrassed  34-7 on MNF at New Orleans two weeks ago but ended a four-game slide by routing Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. However, let's note that the Panthers have lost SEVEN in a row. Brissett is completing 61.6% for 2,780 ayrds (18 TDs / 6 INTs) but his recent struggles have cast some doubt on his future as the team's starting QB. He has completed just 52.5 percent of his passes with 8.9 yards per completion over his last two games. Running backs Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins combined for 179 rushing yards and a pair of scores in the win over the Panthers and despite missing some time late in the season, Mack has run for 1,014 yards (4.4 YPA / 6 TDs), giving him his first 1,000-yard season. The Colts are averaging 133.2 YPG, giving them the league's 4th-best rushing attack. Indy's best receiver T.Y. Hilton has been fighting injuries all season (just 42 catches and 5 TDs) but he is active for this one. Indy's defense has been "average' all season, allowing 22.3 PPG (15th) on 346.4 YPG (16th).

Nick Foles came back from that Week 1 injury but did not play well. Minshew's fast start created some buzz in Jacksonville but his play has been a bit more uneven since he regained the starting role from Nick Foles at the beginning of the month. Minshew completed just 13-of-31 passes in last week's 24-12 loss at Atlanta, but he does have five TD passes and just one interception in four December starts. Will the Jags 'eat' Foles' contract and go with Minshew (2,976 pasing yards with a 18-5 ratio plus 337 rushing yards on 5.4 YPA) in 2020. We don't hear much about Leonard Fournette these days but he's had quite a season, rushing for 1,152 yards (4.3 YPA & 7 TDs) plus he's caught 76 passes. Second-year WR Chark has also 'flown under the radar,' catching 69 passed with eight TDs. The Jacksonville defense checks in allowing 25.1 PPG (22nd) on 382.1 YPG (27th).

Indy head coach Frank Reich has made one thing clear since his team was eliminated from the playoffs by New Orleans on Monday Night Football on Dec 16; "There's nothing meaningless about finishing this season with back-to-back wins and avoiding their second losing season in three years." Frank Reich is 8-3-1 ATS in division games and his teams can be counted on for a full effort. As for the Jags' Doug Marrone, he may not be back. Personnel chief Tom Coughlin was identified as the franchise's biggest problem and was fired on Dec 18. Marrone could really use his Jags to bring their "A game" in this one. He can't count on his D (see above) and note that Jacksonville has given up an average of 469 YPG over the last three weeks. For the Jags to win (even compete) here, they will need to score, That's why I'm saying "O-V-E-R!"

Good luck...Larry

 

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 21-13 in Week 15, upping their record to 11-3 (tied with New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle for the NFC's best record). The Packers are a long-shot to get the No. 1 seed but are the favorite to win the NFC North. A win over the Vikings on Monday night will clinch the division for Green Bay but even with a loss, the Packers would still win the NFC North by beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 17 (the Lions are currently 3-10-1). The Vikings routed the Chargers 39-10 in LA last Sunday and enter this contest 10-4 and all but assured of at the least, a wild card spot. The only way Minnesota doesn't clinch a wild card spot would be by losing their last two games (host the Bears in Week 17), while the LA Rams win their final two games, at San Francisco on Saturday and at home in Week 17 to the Cardinals. Assuming that the Packers lose here but win at Detroit, the Vikings will be relegated to a wild card spot.   They could only earn the No. 5 seed (a great position, as the five-seed will play the NFC East champ, either Dallas or Philly) if the 49ers OR Seahawks lose out and the Vikings win out. That sets the stage for this MNF contest. Confused?

The Packers may be 11-3 but they seem to have a patent on “winning ugly” in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,463  yards with 24 TDs and just two INTs (in 474 attempts) but similar to Tom Brady, he just hasn't "looked right' in 2019. The Packers rank just 21st in total offense (336.6 YPG) and 14th in scoring (14th). RB Aaron Jones has been Rodgers' "main' man," rushing for 830 yards (4.4 YPA) while scoring 14 TDs. He's also caught 45 passes for three more TDs. Adams leads the team with 63 catches (just 4 TDs) but no other WR has even HALF as many receptions as Adams. Defensively, the Packers are allowing 371.3 YPG (to rank 23rd) but the team has fared better in the category of points allowed (20.2 PPG ranks 9th).

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has often been criticized but he's completing 70.5 percent on the season with 25 TDs and just five INTs (111.1 QB rating ranks fourth-best). RB Cook (1,175 RY / 4.5 YPA / 13 TDs plus has added 53 catches for 519 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs. He hurt his should again last Sunday and there are conflicting reports surrounding his availability for this game. He's listed as doubtful but Cook has said "Im playing." WR Stefon Diggs has 60 catches (17.9 YPC / 5 TDs) and fellow WR Thielen played last week and had three catches (he has 30 catches but six TDs in nine games). Minnesota has two-headed TE combo (Rudolph and Smith) and the duo has combined for 71 catches and eight TDs. The Vikings offense has played well all season, ranking seventh in scoring (27.0 PPG) and their defense also ranks seventh in allowing a modest 18.5 PPG.

The Packers will likely win the division but the Vikings GUARANTEE themselves a wild card spot with a win here. Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 at home and as noted earlier, Rodgers (like Brady), just seems 'off.' The Packers enter this contest averaging only 19.6 PPG their last six contests and Rodgers enters the game averaging just 189.8 YPG passing in that span. Meanwhile, the oft-maligned Cousisns has thrived since the Vikings installed a moving pocket for him, after the team went 2-2 in September. Minnesota is 8-2 since then, with Cousins throwing 22 TDs and just three INTs, posting QB ratings of over 100.0 SEVEN times. Never thought I'd ever say this but....I'm taking Cousins over Rodgers in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Battle 4 NFC East is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

The NFC East boasts a rich and decorated history but 2019 will NOT go down as a memorable season, unless one wants to focus on the moniker, "NFC Least." The Cowboys, Eagles Giants and Redskins have 'earned' that title, as the four teams are a combined 20-36 (.357), with Dallas and Philly 'leading' the way at 7-7.The Cowboys got a much-need 44-21 win last Sunday, snapping the team's second three-game losing streak of the season. Meanwhile, the Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back wins over the division's two bottom teams, needing OT to beat the Giants in a Week 15 home MNF contest and a fumble return for TD on the game's final play to get past the Reskins, 34-24 in Washington (the Eagles had just scored the go-ahead TD with 26 seconds remaining in the game). Dallas can clinch the division title with a win, while an Eagles win puts Philadelphia in control of its own destiny.

Dallas QB Prescott has thrown for 4,334 yards (2nd-best to Tampa Bay's Winston) with 26 TDs and 11 INTs. He's been dealing with a sprained right shoulder that limited him in practice this week but he declared that he'll "be good to go on Sunday," choosing to NOT add any additional drama surrounding this high-stakes game. WRs Amari Cooper has 71 catches and is averaging 15.1 YPC with eight TDs. Fellow WRs Gallup (56 / 16.3 YPC) and Cobb (45 / 15.0 YPC) give Dallas three receivers all averaging 15-plus yards per catch (that's impressive). RB Ezekiel Elliott had 117 rushing and 43 receiving yards (along with two TDs) in the Cowboys' 44-21 romp over the Rams and checks in with 1,188 yards on the season (4.4 YPA / 11 TDs). The current  Dallas D does not remind anyone of "Doomsday" Part 1 or 2, but the Cowboys rank seventh in total D (323.6 YPG ) and 12th in scoring D (20.6 PPG).

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a poor year and he sure was awful in when the Eagles lost 37-10 to the Cowboys in Week 7 at Dallas (he tossed an interception and had two of Philadelphia's three lost fumbles). However, he's thrown for 3,431 yards on the season with 25 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 591 yards and five TDs without an interception in wins over the Giants and Redskins. He's done all that (the last two weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TE  Zach Ertz is headed to his third straight Pro Bowl with 84 catches and six TDs (47 receptions for 544 yards and five TDs have come over the last six games). The team's second TE, Goedert, has 45 catches and four TDs. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9. Miles Sanders had 172 scrimmage yards (122 rushing, 50 receiving) in the Eagles' 37-27 victory over Washington last Sunday to boost his season total to 1,120 (687 rushing), with both  totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (328.5 YPG) and 19th in scoring D (23.4 PPG).

No matter how many times the Cowboys disappoint, they still seem to have plenty who will say that Dallas will nail down the NFC East title, here. I'm NOT one of them. Wentz has battled through a tough season and enters this contest with at least one TD pass in 17 straight games, the longest streak of any QB. The Cowboys do not own a SINGLE win against a team that is currently "in" the playoff field and has lost to playoff-bound teams New Orleans, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England and Buffalo. Lose here and the Cowboys will likely make Philly a playoff team in 2019. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

 

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Oak/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.

The 6-8 Oakland Raiders and the 5-9 Los Angeles Chargers have nothing to play for entering Sunday's meeting in Carson, Ca. The two longtime AFC West rivals are both coming to the end of disappointing seasons. The Raiders have lost their last FOUR games, including this past Sunday's 20-16 defeat to the Jags. The Raiders led 16-3 at the half but the Jags rallied to score the game's final 17 points, handing the Raiders a loss in their final home game in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Chargers have dropped FOUR of their last five, including last Sunday's 'ugly' 39-10 home loss to the Vikings, as Rivers threw three INTs plus lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

Oakland QB Derek Carr has completed a career-high 70 percent of his passes for 3,372 yards with 19 TDs and eight INTs but hasn't recorded a 300-yard outing this season. In fairness to Carr, he's got a very average (I'm being VERY kind) group of WRs, with TE Waller leading the team with 80 catches. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (1,150 rushing yards, 4.8 YPA and seven TDs) has been outstanding but will sit out the game with a shoulder injury. Oakland's defense is allowing 27.6 PPG (28th) on the season, after allowing an average of 34 points during their four-game slide.

Sure, Rivers went over the 4,000-yard mark for the 11th time during last week's 39-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings (4,055 on the season) but he's thrown 11 INTs in LA's last five games (1-4 slide) and on the season, has almost as may INTs (18) as TD passes (21). RB Melvin Gordon ran for 885 yards on 5.1 YPA with 10 TDs last season, while adding 50 catches and another four TDs. However, he held out early in the season and enters this game having rushed for just 551 yards (4.0 YPA / 5 TDs) plus has a modest 30 catches. His backfield partner Ekeler has 500 yards (4.2 YPA / 3 TDs) and also 78 catches (2nd-best on the team) with a club-high 8 TDs. WR Keenan Allen (1,046 yards, five touchdowns) was selected to his third straight Pro Bowl with his third straight 90-catch season and is 13 away from surpassing the career-best 102 he caught in 2017. LA's defense has been solid, allowing 20.7 PPG (13th) on 307.6 YPG (5th).

The Los Angeles Chargers will bid farewell to their temporary home of three seasons on Sunday, playing their final game at Dignity Health Sports Park, before they move into SoFi Stadium for the 2020 season. The 27,000-seat facility used mainly for soccer hasn’t been much of a home-field advantage, as visiting team fans have drowned out local fans. Last week’s game against Minnesota was dominated by Vikings fans in the lower deck. The same is expected on Sunday with a large percentage of Raiders fans still in Los Angeles. This could be the final home game for Rivers and Gordon, with both being in the final year of their contracts. Both have also struggled in what has been a disappointing season. When the Chargers played in Oakland (Nov 7), the Raiders won 26-24 but Gordon rushed for a season-high 108 yards. Rivers did not fare well, passing for just 207 yards with two TDs and three INTs. However, I expect Rivers to exploit a decimated  Raiders secondary (remember: Oakland has allowed 34.0 PPG during its four-game slide) but I also expect the Raiders to stay close, as the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS when favored in 2019. That translates into an O-V-E-R, this meaningless contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC East) is on the NE Patriots at 4:30 ET.

The 10-4 Buffalo Bills and 11-3 New England are both in the postseason but there still is plenty at stake when the AFC East rivals square off Saturday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. New England, clinched a record 11th consecutive trip to the playoffs last week but the Pats can wrap up the division title and has a chance to earn a first-round bye with a win against the visiting Bills. History is sure on New England's side, as following a hard-fought 16-10 victory at Buffalo in Week 4 the Pats have won SIX straight against the Bills and 34 of the last 39! However, the Bills would argue, that was THEN and this is NOW. Buffalo has won FOUR of its last five, including road victories at Dallas and Pittsburgh, and holds a two-game edge for the fifth seed in the AFC and still has a shot at the division title with two wins and two losses by New England. However, that's NOT likely, as the Pats host the 3-11 Dolphins in Week 17.

Head coach Sean McDermott has done an excellent job with the Bills,as he has Buffalo in the postseason for the second time in his three years, after Buffalo had missed the previous 17 seasons. Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 59.3% for 2,876 yards with an 18-9 TD/INT ratio. He also has run for 467 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from a being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (28) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons plus has two more games to add to that total. Allen helps the Bills rushing game (see above), while rookie Singletary (729 yards / 5.4 YPA) and the ageless Gore (573 yards / 3.6 YPA) join him to give the Bills the NFL's fifth-best rushing attack (134.9 YPG). Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (71 / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (60 / 11.2 YPC / 6 TDs). The Buffalo D is playing as well as any the last month, limiting THREE of four opponents to 15 points or less and now ranks second in points allowed (15.9 PPG) and third in total D (291.9 YPG) on the season.

That said, NO team has played better defense in 2019 than the Pats. New England ranks first in scoring D (12.9 PPG) , as well as total D (268.4 YPG). The defense has been the key to a season in which Tom Brady has looked 'old,' the running game has never really produced with any consistency and the receiving corps has struggled with injuries and basically, a lack of quality talent. Brady has thrown for 3,565 yards with 21 TDs (his 17th straight season of at least 20) and seven INTs, hardly one of his better seasons. The running game ranks 19th, averaging only 101.8 YPG (Michel has 742 yards on just 3.6 YPA). Edelman (92 catches / 6 TDs) continues to play like the Energizer Bunny but other than RB White, who has 65 catches, the remaining group of New England receivers leave a lot to be desired. However, despite ranking 18th in total offense (349.9 YPG), the Pats are finding a way to average 26.6 PPG (8th-best).

Here's the bottom line. Gillette Stadium opened in 2002 and has been a 'house of  horrors' for Buffalo, as the Bills have won just TWO of 17 visits there. One of the victories occurred when Tom Brady was serving a suspension and the other time being when Brady just played a half. I gave kudos to Buffalo's McDermott earlier (with good reason) but he's 0-5 vs the Patriots, losing by an average margin of  15.6 PPG. As noted earlier, the Patriots are averaging 26.8 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 28th in passing and are 22nd in points (20.8), having scored 17 or fewer points in HALF of its 14 games. What's more, the only teams the Bills have beaten that now own a winning record are the 8-6 Titans and the 8-6 Steelers (reminder: Pats are 11-3). Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans 'cooled off' the red-hot Titans last Sunday in Nashville, edging Tennessee 24-21. The victory gives the Texans a 9-5 record and they can clinch the AFC South division for the FOURTH  time in five seasons on Saturday afternoon when they visit the suddenly streaking Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose four-game winning streak is the team's longest since a five-game run in 2016.

QB Deshaun Watson was selected to the Pro Bowl for the second straight year, as he nears another 4,000-yard campaign. When on, Watson is among the very best in the league but he's been known to be inconsistent. Watson is completing 67.8% for 3,668yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs, while adding 376 rushing yards (5.0 YPA) and seven more scores. WR DeAndre Hopkins joins him as a Pro Bowl selection. He has 99 catches with seven TDs and needs one catch to record his third career 100-reception season. Fellow WR Fuller is a terrific partner but has struggled with injuries (not sure about his availability for this one). TEs Akins and Fells each have 31 catches with Fells tying Hopkins for a team-high seven TD receptions. RB Hyde (1,030 yards / 4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) has been a 'savior,' stepping in when Lamar Smith was lost for the year in the preseason. Houston is hopeful that defensive lineman J.J. Watt (pectoral), who has been out since Week 9, could return in the postseason. Houston's defense has been up-and-down without him, allowing 23.6 PPG (19th) on 379.4 YPG (28th).

The Bucs were just 3-7 after 10 games but as noted above, have won FOUR in a row but need to win these last two weeks for just their SECOND winning season in the last nine years. QB Jameis Winston continued his hot streak in last week's 38-17 win at Detroit, passing for 458 yards and four TDs. Tampa Bay owns the NFL's third-ranked offense (400.1 YPG), led by the league's top-ranked passing attack (308.8 YPG). Winston became the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 450 yards in consecutive games (vs Indy in Week 15 and against Detroit in Week 16). He leads the league with 4,573 passing yards on the season and could become just the 12th player in league history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. WR Goodwin leads the team with 86 yards (15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) but is nursing an ailing hamstring. What's more, Mike Evans (67 catches / 17.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is now on injured reserve. The running game is woeful, averaging 91.4 YPG (3.5 YPA), ranking 28th. The defense is allowing 350.1 YPG (15th) but 28.4 PPG, which ranks 30th.

With the pressure is off at 3-7, the Buccaneers put together a four-game win streak. Big deal. Those victories have been against the Lions, Colts, Jags and Falcons, who take a combined record of 19-36-1 (.348) into Week 16. Winston may have 30 TD passes but he also has 24 INTs, SIX more than any other QB. Watson is an elite QB with dual threat  skills, while Winston just could wind up with a 30-30 season (TD-INT). The Buccaneers are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS at home this season and I see little reason for them to 'spoil' Houston's chance to clinch its division.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Madness Play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.

Drew Brees threw for 325 yards and five TDs (zero INTs) last Sunday, leading the Saints to 46 points. However, the 'kicker' is that New Orleans allowed the 49ers to score 48 points while rolling up 516 yards. The loss dropped the Saints (along with the Seahawks) one game behind the 49ers in the race for the NFC's  No. 1 seed . However, the Saints (as well as Seattle) got some help on Sunday from the Falcons, who beat the 49ers 29-22 in San Francisco. Seattle won its Sunday game at Carolina and is now 11-3 and owns the tie-breaker over San Francisco in the NFC West The 10-3 Saints reside in the NFC South but can now tie those two NFC West teams at 11-3 atop the NFC along with 11-3 Green Bay (tie-breakers pending) with a win over the visiting 6-7 Indianapolis Colts, who enter having lost FIVE of their last six.

The Colts were once 5-2 but they're now one loss from playoff elimination. QB Jacoby Brissett has done a good job at QB (was thrust into the starter's role with the abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck), completing 63.2% for 2,496 yards with 18 TDs and just six INTs. However, he threw for a pair of TD passes for the first time since Sep 29 in last Sunday's 38-35 setback to Tampa Bay. Brissett has been greatly hampered by the fact that four-time Pro Bowl selection T.Y. Hilton has missed five of his last six games with an ailing calf, after sitting out only four games in first seven seasons. Hilton has played in just seven games this season (35 catches / 10.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and will be a game-time decision here. Third-year RB Marlon Mack returned last week and played with a broken hand (900 yards / 4.4 YPA) but had just 38 yards on 13 carries. Here, he will face a New Orleans rush defense allowing just 94.Y2 YPG (4th). Indy's defense has been shredded for 69 points the last two games and can't be looking forward to seeing Drew Brees.

The Saints went 5-0 while Drew Brees was out with a thumb injury early this season. but while Bridgewater deserves kudos for the job he did, it's GREAT to have Brees back. After last week's game, he's completing 72.5% on the season with 17 TDs and just four INTs (109.5 QB rating). RB Alvin Kamara's offensive numbers haven't been up to his lofty standards but he's got 612 rushing yards (4.4 YPA) and has added 68 catches. He's ably helped by Murray, who has 533 yards (4.7 YPA) with five TDs. WR Michael Thomas has shown no sign of a letdown, as he made 11 catches for 134 yards last week to join Antonio Brown as the lone NFL players to have more than one season with 120-plus receptions and 1,400-plus receiving yards. Thomas has 121 catches  for 1,424 yards (7 TDs) and he and Brees will exploit an Indianapolis' pass defense that allowed Tampa Bay's Winston to throw for 456 yards and four TDPs last Sunday.

The Saints really need a win here to join Seattle and San Francisco at 11-3, as those two will meet in Week 17, where one HAS to lose. The Saints have NOT been as dominant at home recently (as in the past) but this Indy team is 'limping' to the finish line. The Saints will honor the 10-year anniversary of their only Super Bowl win, by bringing members of the 2009 team together for a reunion prior to the game. New Orleans posted a 31-17 victory over Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV. Another 14-pont margin, at a minimum, is expected here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.

The 9-4 Buffalo Bills had a three-game winning streak come to an end in a 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and are staring at a tough two-game road stretch as they try to lock up a playoff spot. The Bills are currently the No. 1 wild card team but they must  visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and  then  have to travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. The 8-5 Steelers are surging with wins in THREE straight and SEVEN of their last eight, but the red-hot Titans are also 8-5 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker), after winning FOUR in a row. If the Titans beat the Texans earlier today, the loser of this game will be 'sweating.'

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has make great strides in his second season, as he'thrown foir 2,737 yards (17 TDs / 8 INTs) plus run for 439 yards and eight TDs. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (27) and 12 rushing TDs (16) in his first two seasons plus has three more games to add to that total. However, he struggled against a tough defense last week, completing just 17 of 39 (43.6%) for a modest 146 yards (QB rating of only 62.6). Buffalo's running game is averaging 135.3 YPG (5th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks second in points allowed (16.3 per) and third total D (296.8YPG).

The Steelers lost their first three games and Big Ben was lost in Week 2, for the season. However, using a combination of Mason Rudolph and Devlin "Duck" Hodges at QB, Mike Tomlin has his team right in the playoff hunt. Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts with last week's 23-17 triumph over Arizona. "He's been able to gain more traction and gain more exposure," Tomlin told reporters of Hodges, who is completing 71.3 percent of his passes and went 16-of-19 for 152 yards and a touchdown last week. Some good news could be coming Hodges' way, as RB James Conner (shoulder) and wide-out JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) both returned to practice this week. Kudos to the jobs Rudolph and Hodges have done but Pittsburgh's turnaround has been fueled by its defense, which has allowed  just 14.6 PPG over its last five games.

The 'knock' on Buffalo has been that the only team with a current winning record that the Bills have beaten is Tennessee (8-5, after four straight wins). As for Pittsburgh, while Baltimore's John Harbaugh is likely to be named coach of the year, Mike Tomlin deserves serious consideration. His Steelers opened 0-3 and again, Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. However, the Steelers have won EIGHT of 10 since that 0-3 start, losing only in OT at home to Baltimore and 21-7 at Cleveland. This is Pittsburgh's final home game of the season and a win here plus a win at the Jets in Week 16 would get them to 10 wins, meaning its Week 17 game at Baltimore may not need to be won. We saw Allen struggle last week vs Baltimore's D (at home) and here on the road, Pittsburgh's D should again give him fits. Pittsburgh lost two of its first three home games (by two points to Seattle and in OT by three to Baltimore) but is 5-0 SU and ATS in its other five home games (has won FOUR straight), holding those opponents to 13.2 PPG. Steelers get the win.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

The 8-5 Los Angeles Rams are two games better than the 6-7 Dallas Cowboys but they face an uphill climb to make the playoffs with just three games remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are below .500 and mired in a three-game losing streak, but currently are tied for the NFC East lead with Philadelphia, while owning the tiebreaker due to a 37-10 Week 7 home win over the Eagles. LA's postseason chances appeared to be on 'life-support' following a 45-6 drubbing by Baltimore in Week 12 but the Rams have rebounded with lopsided victories over Arizona and Seattle to move within one game of Minnesota for the sixth seed in the NFC. In contrast, the Cowboys have lost THREE in a row and badly need a win here, as they travel to Philadelphia next Sunday

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC) but they managed only 35 points in a three-game stretch (1-2),  before erupted for 62 points in back-to-back victories in Weeks 13 and 14. Jared Goff threw for 717 yards and four TDs in the two wins, after posting QB ratings of 51.2, 69.9 and 62.0 with five INTs and zero TDs while averaging only 209.3 YPG passing in from Weeks 10 through Week 12. Is the Rams' offense back? Maybe but I'm not sure? Gurley is NOT the same player he was last season, WR Woods has just one TD reception all season and fellow WR Cooks' miserable season continued against the Seahawks, and his limited playing time (27 of 70 offensive snaps) is another concern to add to the list. He's been held to just 12 receptions for 162 yards over the past seven games (note: he's averaged 80 catches for over 1,200 yards the last five seasons).

Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards (4,122) while Ezekiel Elliott (1,071 yards) and Amari Cooper (1,054 yards) each rank fifth in their respective categories, marking the first time Dallas has a 4,000-yard passer along with a 1,000-yard rusher and receiver. However, while Dallas is averaging an NFL-high 430.8 YPG, the Cowboys' average of 25.7 PPG ranks just 9th-best. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has been reasonably consistent all season and enters this contest allowing 20.5 PPG (12th) on 326.2 YPG (8th).

I realize the Cowboys are in a funk but a win here gives them a chance to clinch the NFC East next Sunday. The Rams' win over Arizona hardly proves anything and while the Rams dominated a strong Seattle team last Sunday, the Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. My bet says the Cowboys "come up big," while the Rams playoff hopes all but disappear with a loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.

The 9-4 Minnesota Vikings hope to move closer to a playoff spot when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Minnesota is one game ahead of the LA Rams in the battle for the NFC's second wild-card spot but also stands just one game behind Seattle for the No. 1 wild card spot, as well as one game behind the first-place Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. As for the 5-8 Chargers, they have already been eliminated from playoff contention, missing the playoffs for the EIGHTH time in the last 10 seasons.

Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter recorded three sacks in last Sunday's 20-7 victory over the Detroit Lions, raising his season total to 12.5 and career count to 52.5 (note: he's the youngest player, at 25 years, 40 days, in NFL history to reach 50 career sacks. He's the star of a defense that has allowed 14 or less points in five games and enters this contest allowing 19.2 PPG (7th). Dalvin Cook (1,108 RY / 4.6 YPA / 13 TDs plus 50 catches for 503 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs, while WR Stefon Diggs (56 catches / 997 yards / 17.8 YPC / 5 TDs) will top 1,000 receiving yards on Sunday. That will make them the first Minnesota duo since RB Adrian Peterson (1,383 rushing) and Sidney Rice (1,312 receiving) in 2009 to each top 1,000 yards. QB Kirk Cousins is often criticized but he's s completing 70.1 percent on the season with 24 TDs and just four INTs (112.0 QB rating ranks third-best).

Los Angeles established season highs for points, total offense (525 yards) and first downs (27) against Jacksonville in last Sunday's 45-10 win. Rivers has thrown for 3,748 yards and is almost assured of eclipsing 4,000 passing yards for the 7th straight season and for the 11th time in the last 12. However, he's thrown 15 INTs putting him on pace for the third-most in any of his seasons. WR Allen has 81 catches but fellow WR Williams has 40 catches with just one TD, after catching 10 last season.  RB Gordon has played in just nine games (only 523 yards on 4.0 YPC), while backup Ekeler has 481 yards (4.3 YPA) plus a 73 receptions (team-high 8 TD catches). LA's defense is allowing just 19.3 PPG and ALL eight of the team's losses have come by seven points or less.

Yes, the Chargers are MUCH better than their 5-8 record, as they own a plus-38 point differential. However, LA's late-game execution has doomed them repeatedly all season. In contrast, the Vikings pulled out a pair of narrow victories in November, helping their playoff push which has seen them win SEVEN of nine with Cousins throwing 21 TD passes against just two INTs in that nine-game stretch. The Vikings have only lost at KC and Seattle in their last nine games and as noted above, the Chargers have found ways to lose games all season. No "margin" to worry about here and I believe the Vikings win quite handily.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Chi/GB at 1:00 ET.

The Bears and Packers will meet for the 200th time Sunday at legendary Lambeau Field. The forecast at kick-off as the team's renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry is 17 degrees with a wind chill factor of eight, according to the National Weather Service. The high is expected to be 19, nine degrees below average for Dec 15 in Green Bay. The Bears have won THREE straight and FOUR of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot at 7-6, while the 10-3 Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. These teams opened the 2019 season with the Packers winning 10-3 at Chicago back on Thursday, Sep .

The Packers were out-yarded by the Bears in that opening week win when Chicago QB when Trubisky was playing terrible. However, Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak. "He has continued to gain confidence and trust with himself and then with his teammates," QB coach Dave Ragone told the Chicago Tribune. "Hopefully that continues the rest of the season. But you've seen the progress. Things have been clearer. Sharper." Veteran WR Allen Robinson (76 catches / 7 TDs on the season) has been the beneficiary of Trubisky's solid play, recording 19 catches for 265 yards and four TDs during the 3-0 run. Rookie RB David Montgomery (just 680 RY on 3.5 YPA) is also "coming around," with 161 rushing yards the last two games, while averaging 4.5 YPA.

Green Bay is averaging a pedestrian 18.8 points during its last five games, despite meeting the Redskins and Giants during this time frame. Those issues were clearly evident in a sluggish 20-15 home victory over a three-win Washington team that gave Green Bay all it could handle last Sunday. "I just know we're not where we need to be as a football team," head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters this week. "I still think ... I'm optimistic we can get there." Green Bay had 167 passing yards and 174 rushing yards in last week's win, after posting 243 and 79, respectively, in a victory at the New York Giants the previous Sunday. There is a sense that the offense needs to find its identity for the stretch run. Aaron Rodgers has a terrific 23-2 TD-to-INT ratio on the season but he's had a QB rating of over 100.0 in four different games this season, but also four with under 90.0. He has clearly become highly reliant on RB Aaron Jones (779 YR on 4.4 YPA with 12 TDs plus 45 catches with 3 TDs) in first-year coach Matt LaFleur's offense but Jones has four games with at least 150 yards from scrimmage and five with fewer than 50.

No doubt the Bears are playing better and Green Bay is not a "complete" team but Rodgers is 18-5 as the starter against the Bears and including the playoffs, the Packers have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with their bitter rivals. Yes, the Bears have won FOUR of five but the wins have come over the QB-less 3-9-1 Lions (twice), the 2-11 Giants (currently on a 9-game losing skid) and the 'imploding' Cowboys. It will be cold in Green Bay but sunny and we get to go "over" a very low number. I sure don't trust the Bears but on "current form," I am beginning to have some faith in Trubisky. That said, Rodgers is overdue for a "big game" and why not here against the team's most-hated rival and one that Green Bay has dominated the last decade (see above). This one is Goin' Over (no 10 FGs in this one, like last week's 'nightmare' with the Dolphins/Jets)!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.

San Francisco's defense is allowing a league-low of 250.9 YPG and ranks second in points allowed at 15.3 PPG. It held up well against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week, allowing just 20 points but still lost. I've always been somewhat skeptical of QB Jimmy Garoppolo but he's had a very good season, completing 69.0% for 2,896 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs (he's registered a QB rating of at least 110.2 in five of his last six games). He's done all this with a mediocre group of WRs, although TE Kittle (54 catches) is a "big time" performer. The running game averages 148.0 YPG, which ranks second-best to only Baltimore (Ravens are averaging a 'monster' 207.8 YPG). Keeping its RBs healthy as been a major issue, as Breida, Mostert and Coleman have all been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.

This has been some impressive season for the Saints, as when Brees missed five games due to a thumb injury, Bridgewater stepped in to go 5-0 as starter. Brees is back and while he's not quite the "Brees of old," he's completing 73.8% with 12 TDs and just four INTs (104.4 QB rating). WR Thomas has 110 catches and has been the "go-to" guy for both Brees and Bridgewater. The Saints miss Ingram (now with Baltimore) but in Kamara (587 yards on 4.7 YPA plus 64 catches) and Murray (464 yards on 4.4 YPA) make up a quality RB duo. The New Orleans D has been plenty good enough, allowing 20.7 PPG on 323.4 YPG.

Here's the rub. The 49ers opened 8-0 but in that span, they beat just ONE team with a winning record at the time of the game (Rams were 3-2). They are 2-2 their last four, losing to now 10-2 teams Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS their last 10 and have extra rest and preparation time (played on Thanksgiving), while the 49ers are off a physical road loss to Baltimore. To combat that, instead of flying home after last week's game in Baltimore, the 49ers opted to spend the week in Florida instead to avoid more cross-country flights and another time change (will it help?). It can't hurt but this is an off-surface and different environment for the 49ers playing on carpet inside a dome. In the end, Drew Brees owns a HUGE edge on Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, making the Saints a STRONG play at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins opened 0-7 but in Week 9, broke through for their first win, 26-18 at home over the NY Jets. The Dolphins upset the Colts the following week (Brissett was out for Indy) but then lost convincingly to the Bills and Browns. However, Miami played its best game of the year last week in beating the Eagles 37-31 as a 10-point home underdog. The Dolphins  now get a rematch with the Jets at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands. The Jets know all about bad starts, as they opened 0-4 and 1-7. The Jets looked great in winning three straight from Week 10 through 12 but threw in a major 'clunker' in Week 13 (naturally!). After scoring 34 points in each contest during their three-game winning streak, the Jets lost 22-6 at then-winless Cincinnati (0-11). New York totaled just 271 yards with two FGs, reminding all that they are the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!

Miami,erupted for season-high totals in points and yards (408) in its 37-31 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a season-high 365 yards and three TDs. Former first-round WR DeVante Parker continued his hot stretch with seven catches for career-high totals in yards (159) and TDs (two) against the Eagles. He has 20 catches the last three games and a team-high 53 on the season. Fitzgerald is pretty much counted on to produce the points for Miami, as the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in averaging 62.8 YPG on 3.1 YPA (the team's leading rusher has all of 201 yards!). Defense is a problem as well, as Miami is allowing 31.4 PPG, ranking dead-last in that category, as well.

Sam Darnold can 'feel Fitzgerald's pain,' as the Jets are one notch above the Dolphins, as their running game ranks 31st with 72.6 YPG (3.3 YPA). Good thing New York signed Le'Veon Bell, huh? Sam Darnold, who overcame a bout of mononucleosis earlier in the season, turned a season-high 48 passes against the Bengals into just a 58 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating -- totals that were his second-lowest of 2019 (239 yards without a TD or INT). However, let's NOT ignore that he entered last week's game having averaged 279.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and just ONE INT in leading the Jets to 34 points in each outing (all wins). By the way, Darnold's working with a pretty mediocre cast of receivers, and I'm being kind.

Here's the 'dope.' Both QBs are on "do it alone missions" but the good news is that they face VERY vulnerable opposing pass Ds. The Dolphins have allowed 29 TD passes, while intercepting just EIGHT passes in 395 attempts. Then there is Miami's non-existent pass rush, which has a league-low 16 sacks. Want a comparison? No other team has fewer than 20, with Carolina leading the league with 46!. The Jets pass D is not quite as bad, allowing a more modest 19 TD passes but the Jets only have seven INTs in 447 pass attempts against.

The weather will not be quite as nice as it was in Miami when the teams met back on Nov 3rd but no rain or snow in the forecast (zero percent chance of precipitation) with kickoff temperatures around 40 degrees (good football weather). As noted above, Fitzpatrick has no running attack so the game plan is "just air it out!" Throw early and often, as the Miami defense can't stop anyone (see above for a reminder). Darnold has to be 'licking his chops' looking at Miami's defense on film and he's got some "making up to do" off last week's 'ugly' effort at Cincy and that Week 9 loss at Miami. In that one, Darnold threw a TD pass about five minutes into the contest and then Miami's dreadful D held the Jets out of the end zone the rest of the game. The Jets will score on the Dolphins, who will surely keep up enough for this game to 'fly' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota  atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row  since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019).

The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best).

MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2!

I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However,  Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added  two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning  record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much!  One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home.

Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17.

The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010.

Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and  a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd).

There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0%  for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games).  DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th.

Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett  back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Ten/Ind Over at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season. What could be different here? The Titans have produced 842 total yards over the past two games and are averaging 29.4 PPG over the last five, third in the NFL during that span behind only Baltimore (39.3) and San Francisco (30.8). Tannehill is also tied for third in the NFL with Lamar Jackson in passer rating (111.4), behind only Minnesota's Kirk Cousins (114.8) and Seattle's Russell Wilson (112.1). I won't buck Indy and the team's domination of the Titans in this venue, nor will I 'step in front of' Indy's ATS record its last 10 against a wining team. However, for the Colts to keep those streaks 'alive,' they will have to outscore the Tannehill and Henry-led Tennessee offense, playing with supreme confidence. My play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS  (90%) the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS (again, 90%) the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland would go 2-6 through the season's first eight games, as QB Mayfield, who energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), regressed in Year 2. He completed only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3 in the team's first eight games. However, the Browns were able to snap a four game losing strek in Week 10 (19-16 ay home over the Bills0 and have followed with two more home wins, 21-7 over the Steelers and 41-24 over the Dolphins. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but after a 1-4 start, surged  into playoff contention by winning FOUR of their next five. Better-than-expected QB play from Mason Rudolph and improved defensive play led the way.  However, the Steelers lost 21-7 at Cleveland in Week 11 (you may just have heard about "the brawl") and followed with a less-than-impressive 16-10 victory at the winless Bengals in Week 12. As the team's get set for  a quick "rematch," the Browns are 5-6 and the Steelers 6-5. both teams are both fighting for a wild-card spot and the winner of Sunday's game will have the upper hand in a tight race that features five teams within ONE game of the No. 6 slot in the AFC.

In Cleveland's three-game winning streak, Mayfield has seven TDs and just one INT and is coming off his best game of the season last Sunday, completing 70.6% for 327 yards with three TDs and just one INT for a 118.1 QB rating. He has excellent skill players in RB Chubb (1,117 yards / 5.0 YPA / 7 TDs / 30 catches) plus WRs Landry (59 catches / 14.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and OBJ (54 catches / 14.4 / 2 TDs). However, the Browns' D is no better than average, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 338.5 YPG (14th).

Mason Rudolph had not exactly been 'filling Big Ben's shoes" but he was playing well enough for Pittsburgh to win. However, he played poorly in that Thursday night loss in Cleveland (four INTs and a QB rating of 36.3) and was just 8-of-16 for 85 yards and a interception before being replaced against the Bengals. Rookie QB Devlin "Duck" Hodges followed Rudolph and was 5 of 11 for 118 yards with a TD and zero INTs. Rudolph will be on the sidelines for Sunday's game, as here's what Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said. "We met as a staff, we decided that we're going to start Duck this week," he told reporters. "Really, the decision is clear for us. ... I thought he provided us a spark in-game. I'm hopeful that he's capable of continuing to provide that spark as we step into this stadium." Hodges was effective but hardly overwhelming in a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers back on Oct 13 while filling in for an injured Rudolph. Still, he's won over teammates with his confidence and won over his coaches by avoiding the kind of killer mistakes that have dogged Rudolph recently.

Yes, the Browns have won THREE in a row (I had  them in their Week 11 win over the Steelers) but I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs. Cleveland's been a 'dog' franchise for quite some time now and now that there's a 'sliver of hope,' I expect the Browns to return to "being the Browns." It's a wide-open AFC wild-card race but through all its ups-and-downs in 2019, Pittsburgh currently holds the last spot. This is a HUGE rivalry and expect an electrified atmosphere Sunday at Heinz Field, on the heels of "the brawl." The Browns have been the 'betting choice," as Pittsburgh opened a three-point favorite but now it's Cleveland in the role of a road favorite in Pittsburgh, where the Browns haven't won since 2003 (you read that right!). As bonus, it's Mike Tomlin on the sidelines over a seemingly clueless Freddie Kitchens. It's 'Duck Season', not 'Wabbit Season' today in Pittsburgh.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The New Orleans Saints are 9-2 and own a four-game lead in the NFC South. However, the Saints still have much to paly for, as they are battling the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks for the NFC's No. 1 seed (note: 8-3 Green Bay and Minnesota lurk). New Orleans have survived an injury to its future Hallof Fame QB, as Teddy Bridgewater stepped in and the team never 'blinked.' Now, Brees is back as the Saints enter their playoff 'push.' As for the Falcons, doesn't it seem like their Super Bowl appearance (2016 season) was more like 10 years ago? Atlanta 'limps' into this Thanksgiving night game 3-8, including 1-4 at home. Thursday night's game is a rematch of a Week 10 contest in New Orleans. The Saints were riding a six-game winning streak when they were blindsided by the visiting Falcons, 26-9. It marked the first time New Orleans failed to score a TD at home with Brees operating the offense since he came to the Saints in 2006.

The Saints are in command in the NFC South but the team's defense is trending in the wrong direction. New Orleans had  held FIVE straight opponents to fewer than 260 total yards but the Saints have allowed an average of 334.0 YPG over their last three games, with the 351 total yards they surrendered to the Panthers last week marking their highest total since Week 3. Drew Brees and the offense took a one-game 'hiatus' in the above-mentioned loss to the Falcons but put up 418 total yards last week as Brees threw three TD passes for the second straight game (Saints have scored 34 points in back-to-back games after scoring NINE in that loss to the Falcons). Brees is completing 75.7% of his passes and while Ingram is in Baltimore these days, RBs Kamara (526 rushing yards on 4.6 YPA plus 60 catches) and Murray (462 yards on 4.5 YPA) give him enough 'cover.' On the season, New Orleans' D is allowing 20.9 PPG (13th) on 321.3 YPG (10th).

Matt Ryan passed for 300-plus yards in each of Atlanta's first six game but the Falcons won just ONE of the six. He's averaged a more modest 230.8 YPG passing the last four contests, with Atlanta going 2-2. Is passing less 'the ticket.' Not really, as the Falcons have the second-worst running game in the NFL, averaging 72.9 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPA). Atlanta's 26-9 shocker of the Saints in New Orleans was followed by a 29-3 win at Carolina but anything idea that Atlanta had 'righted the ship,' came crashing down in last Sunday's 35-22 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons surrendered 446 total yards and had a hard time getting the run game going with 57 rushing yards (note: TB entered that game at 2-8 ATS, the worst pointspread record of an NFL team).

Atlanta's upset win at New Orleans in Week 10 was one of NFL 2019's most improbable wins (sacked Brees SIX times) but forewarned is forearmed. The Saints are 4-0 SU & ATS on the road this season and come into this contest an NFL-best 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in road games since 2016. Atlanta was once an excellent home team but no more. The Falcons beat Philly 24-20 at home in Week 2 but they have since lost FOUR in a row at home, allowing 30.8 PPG. "Matty Ice" (what a fraudulent nick-name) gets out-dueled by Brees in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

All the NFL's top teams won on Sunday, as the 49ers and Pats moved to 10-1, while the Seahawks and Saints (just barely) moved to 9-2. Monday night, the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens will bring their six-game winning streak (NFL's longest current winning streak) to LA in an effort to "Keep up with the Joneses!" Baltimore has DOMINATED in its last four victories, winning 30-16, 37-20, 49-13 and 41-7, as QB Lamar Jackson has catapulted himself into the top-tier of MVP candidates (more later). The Rams welcome the Ravens to the LA Coliseum with a 6-4 record. They are badly in need of a win, as they are 'stuck' in the same division as the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks. The Rams won the NFC West in both 2017 and 2018 (on their way to a Super Bowl berth) but they haven't looked like the same team here in 2019.

Jackson has "the whole league talking about" his recent efforts. He ripped apart the NFL's stingiest defense with his arm and legs, accounting for three TDs and directing a dominant running game in a 37-20 victory on SNF over the Pats in Week 9. He's coming off a four-TD performance in Baltimore's 41-7 rout of Houston last Sunday, becoming the first NFL quarterback to produce at least 2,000 yards passing (2,258 with a 19-5 ratio) and 700 yards rushing (781 on 6.7 YPA with six TDs) through the first 10 games of a season. RB Mark Ingram (667 yards on 4.9 YPA and a team-high eight rushing TDs) joins Jackson to give Baltimore the NFL's best rushing attack (203.1 YPG on 5.7 YPA). The Baltimore D is not the vintage defense of the 'Ray Lewis era" but allowing 19.6 PPG works just fine when the offense is averaging an NFL-high 34.1 PPG!

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC). However, the Rams enter Monday night  having failed to score at least 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time under head coach Sean McVay. After following his breakout year of 2017 (28-7 ratio with a 100.5 QB rating), Jared Goff threw 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (101.0 rating) in leading the Rams into the Super Bowl in 2018. However, through 10 games this season, he's got an 11-10 ratio and a QB rating of 82.1. His production is off due to nagging injuries to WRs Woods (86 catches in 2018) and Cooks (89 catches), who have just 45 (in nine games) and 27 (in eight games), this season. It also hasn't helped that RB Gurley (525 yards with 7 TDs and 18 catches for one TD) is FAR from the player he  was in 2018 (1,251 yards on 4.9 YPA and 17 TDs / 59 catches for 4 TDs). The good news is, both Robert Woods (personal) and Brandin Cooks (concussion) are expected back for this contest. LA's defense has improved this season (allowed 24.0 PPG in 2018 but ranks 11th in allowing 19.6 PPG in 2019) and DT Aaron Donald was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after registering two sacks, four QB hits and a pass deflection in the Rams' 17-7 victory over Chicago last Sunday night.

Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here by going against the red-hot Ravens but I will take the home dog Rams. This isn't your father's NFC West (remember 2010 when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record?). The Rams' only path into the 2019 postseason is via the wild card. I'm not sure the Rams. chances are very good there either but those chances will all but disapear with a loss here. As Winston Churchill once opined, "If not now, when? If not us, who?" That's LA's mentality coming into this contest and Monday night home dogs have always held a special place with long-time handicappers/bettors.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 8-2 Green Bay Packers visit the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, with the Packers atop the NFC North and the 49ers leading the NFC West. However, both teams face stiff challenges from division rivals. The Packers look over their shoulder and see the 8-3 Vikings lurking, while the 49ers have the 8-2 Seahawks right on their coattails. This primetime game has major homefield advantage and wild-card positioning at stake. The Packers are coming off a Week 11 bye but are sure to remember their last trip to the West Coast, a 26-11 Week 9 loss at the LA Chargers, as a four-point road favorite. As for the 49ers, they welcome the Packers to Lev's Stadium off three straight games against NFC West rivals, beating Arizona twice, 28-25 and 36-26, sandwiched around a 27-24 loss in OT to the Seahawks (MNF classic).

Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,718 yards (he owns two, 400-yard passing games) with a superb ratio of 17 TD passes against only two INTs. Rodgers no longer enjoys an elite receiving corps but RB Aaron Jones has had a 'breakout year." He is tied for the NFL lead with 14 TDs (11 rushing, three receiving) and has 943 scrimmage yards (589 rushing, 354 receiving). WR Davant Adams (39 catches in six games) is still dealing with a toe injury but he's had a week off and has played in Green Bay's last two games, catching SEVEN balls in each contest. The Green Bay defense ranks 28th in yards allowed (384.7 per) but 14th in points allowed, at a more modest 20.5 PPG. The key being, the  team's plus-9 turnover margin (16 takeaways against just seven giveaways).

San Francisco's lone blemish in 2019 has been that MNF loss to Seattle, a game the 49ers could have easily won. San Francisco's offense has been led by the steady, if unspectacular play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (68.8% for 2,478 yards with 18 TDs and 10 INTs), plus the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack (149.0 YPG). The good news is that star TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) returned to practice Thursday and the 49ers are hopeful he will available after missing the past two games with knee and ankle injuries. The San Francisco offense is not viewed as prolific but it does rank second in scoring at 29.5 PPG. San Francisco's D ranks second to only New England's in points allowed (15.5 PPG) and yards allowed (253.0 YPG). The 49ers lead the NFL with 39 sacks, as DEs Arik Armstead (eight) and Nick Bosa (seven) lead the charge.

Let me "take apart" what I just noted about the 49ers. I've always maintained that Garoppolo's gaudy W-L record as a starting QB (17-3, including 2-0 with the Pats) conceals the fact that he's not much better than an average QB. Note that EIGHT of his 18 TD passes have come in two games against the Cardinals (over a three-game span), who rank 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2019. Now, let's take a closer look at that SF running game over that recent three-game span. The Niners relied heavily on their running game in averaging 181.1 YPG through the first seven contests but with nagging injuries to both Breida and Mostert, that aspect of the offense has gone missing the past three weeks. San Francisco has been held to 74.0 YPG (third-worst in the NFL during that span), averaging 2.9 YPA. Moving on to San Francisco's D, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. San Francisco has allowed 25, 27 and 26 points its last three contests, beginning with the game in which Alexander got hurt in.

This game against the Packers begins a grueling three-game stretch for the Niners. San Francisco follows this with two more against teams currently in first place with trips to Baltimore (8-2) and New Orleans (8-2). If the Ravens and Saints don't lose before facing San Francisco, the 49ers will be the first team in the Super Bowl era to play three consecutive games this late in the season against teams with a winning percentage of at least .800, according to ESPN. The 49ers' season could turn 'sour,' VERY quickly. 'Forgiving' the Packers their Week 9 loss at the Chargers (it was a non-conference road game, which does not factor into tie-breakers in the NFC standings), the Packers have won 10-3 at Chicago, 34-24 at Dallas (led 28-0) and 31-24 at KC. Any points here are a bonus, as I expect the Packers to win, outright!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The Patriots were held to 17 points at Philadelphia last Sunday but despite Tom Brady's admitted "frustration" with his team's offense, the Patriots won 17-10 and at 9-1, own the best record in the AFC. The win helped New England's opponent this Sunday, as the Eagles fell to 5-5, meaning that the Cowboys' 35-27 win at Detroit allowed 6-4 Dallqa to assume sole possession of first place in the NFC East.As Brady put it, "I came out of the womb as a Niner fan, so I've really not liked the Cowboys ever since." It's been more than 20 years since "the triplets" of Aikman, Irvin and Smith helped propel the Cowboys to their most recent Super Bowl win and since he entered the league in 2000, Brady has taken out his childhood frustrations on them, winning each of his four meetings against them as the Patriots' starting QB.

Dallas ranks first in the league averaging 446.0 YPG and is averaging 28.6 PPG (4th). QB Dak Prescott has been terrific, completing 67.7% for 3,221 yards (Dallas is No. 1 in passing yards) with 21 TDs and nine INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. WR Amari Cooper (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) has been very good plus fellow WRs Gallup (42 / 16.1 YPC) and Cobb (35 catches / 14.1 YPC), not to mention ageless TE Whitten (41 catches), provide Prescott with plenty of options. RB Elliott has 833 yards (4.3 YPA and 7 TDs). Defensively, Dallas ranks 7th in both points allowed (19.7 per) and total D (322.1 YPG).

Brady is having a sub-par season by his standards (63.7% with 14 TDs and 5 INTs for a 90.1 QB rating) and a mediocre receiving corps plus a poor running game (Pats average just 91.0 YPG to rank 24th), sure don't make his job easier. Leading rusher Michel has a modest 515 yards and is averaging only 3.3 YPA. However, somehow, the Pats rank third in the NFL by averaging 28.7 PPG. Leading the way all season has been New England's defense, which ranks 1st in points allowed (10.8 PPG) and 1st in total D (249.9 YPG). The Patriots have given up only NINE total TDs on defense in 2019, FOUR of which came in their 37-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 9. New England has yet to allow a red-zone TD at home this season and own an NFL-best 28 takeaways (its 37 sacks rank third).

Here's the key. Just how good are the Cowboys? The team's six wins have come over the Giants (two), Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles and Lions. NONE of those teams currently own a winning record. The Eagles are 5-5 but the Lions are 3-6-1, the Giants and Dolphins are both 2-8 plus the Redskins are 1-9. Are you kidding me? The four losses have come against the 8-2 Packers and Saints, the 7-3 Vikings and even the 3-7 Jets. New England has won 17 in a row at home and a victory Sunday would give them 17 straight 10-win seasons, breaking an NFL record shared with San Francisco. More notably, the Pats enter this game on a 16-4 ATS run at Gillette Stadium (that's 80%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Year is on Jax/Ten Over at 4:05 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. The Titans welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to Nashville on Sunday, looking for a FOURTH win in five games (details to come). The Jags opened the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but then would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles and played reasonably well (61.2% for 2,285 yards with 13 Tds and four INTs) but Foles returned to field last Sunday. The Jags were routed 33-13 by the Colts, although Foles completed 33 of 47 for 296 yards with two TDs and one INT.

The 4-6 Jags defeated the Titans 20-7 at home back in Week 3. Minshew played well with two TDs and zero INTs (a modest 204 passing yards) but it was Jacksonville's defense which played the starring role, sacking Mariota NINE times. Foles is back but the Jags can't ignore their running game like vs the Colts (29 yards on nine carries!), as when used, Fournette is a quality multi-purpose player. He's rushed for 854 yards (4.7 YPA) and has 47 catches! WR Chark is having an excellent season with 51 receptions, averaging 15.6 YPC plus hauling in eight TDs. The once-proud Jacksonville defense has allowed 59 points in back-to-back losses to Houston and Indy, allowing 216 yards rushing in a 26-3 loss to the Texans and 264 in last week's 33-13 loss to the Colts.

The Titans have an excellent RB in Henry and unlike Fournette (who has just one TD!), Henry has EIGHT rushing TDs (832 yards on 4.4 YPA) plus two TD receptions, despite just 13 catches. Henry is a major contributor (more in a bit) but the insertion of Tannehill at QB is what has sparked the Titans' turnaround. Tannehill was named the starting QB for Week 7.Four games later (Tennessee is 3-1 and averaging 26.3 PPG), Tannehill has led the Titans to the top spot in the league in red zone offense, scoring TDs on all 10 red zone trips. For the season, the Titans have scored TDs on 72% of their red zone trips.In the first six weeks, the offense was settling for FGs when it reached the red zone. In Marcus Mariota's six starts, when Tennessee averaged just 16.3 PPG, the Titans averaged 1.3 TDs in 2.5 red zone visits per game. Mariota's red zone QBR was 17.0, according to ESPN Stats & Information. However, in the past four games under Tannehill, Tennessee has averaged 1.8 TDs in the same amount of visits. Tannehill's red zone QBR is 97.1. Additionally, Tannehill's completion percentage in the red zone is 70.6%, compared to Mariota's 46.2%.

All these above stats have me 'all over' the OVER is this game.I love what Tannehill's been able to do plus getting back to Henry, he ran for a season-best 188 yards in a 35-32 victory over Kansas City on Nov 10, before the Titans had a bye. The team returns to the field refreshed and let me remind all that Henry ran for a career-best 238-yards with four TDs against the Jaguars last December, including a memorable 99-yard TD. Throw in the fact that Foles has a full week of practice behind (expect a good game from him) and this posted total WAAAAY to low!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"

The Broncos looked to be on the verge of a second straight victory last week but then squandering a 20-point lead in a 27-23 loss at Minnesota. WR Courtland Sutton had five catches for 113 yards and added a 38-yard completion.Sutton is working with backup quarterback Brandon Allen (now Denver's starter), who is completing just 49.2 percent of his passes with three TDs and one interception in two starts.The now injured Flacco was a a bust and while RBs Lindsay (651 yards / 4.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Freeman (405 yards / 4.0 YPA) are both quality backs, Denver ranks just 16th with 113.1 YPG on the ground. Through 10 games, Denver has averaged only 17.2 PPG (27th) on 321.6 YPG (25th). First-year head coach Vic Fangio  was known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos' D is allowing 19.7 PPG (8th) on 310.8 YPG (4th).

Josh Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (23) and 12 rushing TDs (15) in his first two seasons (still has six games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.3% for 2,175 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 331 yards and seven TDs. He was named the AFC's offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 256 yards and three TDs, as well as adding 56 yards and a rushing TD in last week's 37-20 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo's running game is averaging 128.7 YPG (8th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks 3rd in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total D (304.1 YPG).

The criticism of Buffalo is that its seven wins have come against teams entering Week 12 with a combined record of 15-55. The next five opponents are 31-19, and include three division leaders; Dallas (6-4), Baltimore (8-2) and New England (9-1). Fair enough but don't the 3-7 Broncos fall right into Buffalo's 'wheelhouse' of losing teams? Inept quarterbacking gets most of the attention but there are reports of internal strife caused by gruff first-year head coach Vic Fangio. Team Chemistry can’t be too good, after the Broncos ended a consecutive game streak of 99 contests in which a team ahead by at least 20 points at the half, didn't win! VERY fair price on the Bills in this one. Denver is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019 (lone win at the Chargers, who have NO home field edge), extending the team's road woes to 5-16 SU the last two-plus seasons.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET.

Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak.

Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th).

There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th).

The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West.

There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season.

Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points.

OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Arz/SF Over at 4:05 ET.

San Francisco entered last Monday night's game as the NFL's lone unbeaten but fell 27-24 (OT) in one of 2019's most exciting games. The 49ers look to rebound from that loss when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The two NFC West rivals will be meeting for teh second time in three weeks, as the 49ers won 28-25 at Phoenix in a Week 9 Thursday game on Halloween. It may come as a surprise to many that Arizona had beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times,prior to taht contest.

Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ saw his team open 0-3-1 in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7. However, to be fair, those three wins came over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 4-24). The Cards have followed their three-game winning streak by losing 31-9 at New Orleans, 28-25 at home to San Francisco and 30-27 at New Orleans. Kyler Murray (last year's No. 1 pick) has lived up to expectations, completing 63.9% for an average of 290.4 YPG through the air. He has 12 TD passes and just five INTs in 360 attempts (great stat for a rookie!). He also leads the team in rushing, gaining 351 yards on 5.9 YPA. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald leads the team with 50 receptions for 556 yards despite slowing down, while second-year WR Christian Kirk is on the rise, after catching six passes for career-highs of 138 yards and three TDs in last week's loss to Tampa Bay (he's missed three games but has 40 catches and counting). On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona has struggled most of the season, allowing 28.1 PPG (27th) on 412.5 YPG (31st).

The 49ers were overdue to lose but now the test is to bounce back. Jimmy Garoppolo's stats do NOT match Murray's as he's averaging 231.9 YPG passing (Murray averages 60 more YPG) and his ratio of 14-8 is surely no better than Murray's 12-5. Let's not even mention that Garoppolo has 33 rushing yards to Murray's 351 (OK, I did!). Of course, Garoppolo 'hangs his hat' on his 14-3 record as a starting QB (as well he should). A cause for concern is TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) could miss his second straight game with knee and ankle injuries, while WR Emmanuel Sanders (13 for 161, two TDs in three games with the team) will be a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury during Monday's loss. The 49ers are averaging 161.8 YPG on the ground (2nd) but were held to just 87 yards by Seattle (3.2 YPC). However, it's hard to imagine San Francisco NOT running the ball well against the Cards. Despite Monday's loss, the 49ers still come in allowing just 14.6 PPG on 251.6 YPG, ranking second in the league in both categories.

What to expect? The San Francisco D is terrific but as I noted in taking Seattle Nov Game of the Month) last Monday, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense (note: San Francisco has allowed 52 points its last two games). I noted above that Garoppolo stats don't quite measure up to his gaudy W/L record as a starter but I won't ignore that he had no problem against this Arizona defense just 18 days ago, ripping them for 317 yards and four TD passes (all by the end of the start of the 4Q). I noted Arizona's sad-sack defense numbers already but will add that in losing THREE in a row, the Cards have allowed 31, 28 and 30 points. I see little reason why the 49ers won;t score easily on Arizona here (30-plus points) but will add that the Cards never gave up in that Week 9 loss to San Francisco, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter to earn the 'back door' cover. I will not be taking the points in this one but I will go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7.

Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history.

Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th).

Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start.

The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st).

Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions.

I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!'

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record.

No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th).

While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307).

Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10.

The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th).

Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th).

Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins!

Good luck..Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start.

Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough.

The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins."

So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season..

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Buf/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home.

OK, I am NOT about to take the Browns but don't they have to be 'juiced' playing just their second game in Cleveland since Week 3. Buffalo does not have a prolific offense but scoring against the Browns has come fairly easy for most opponents. Yes, Buffalo has a terrific D but the Browns have to believe that if they are to have a chance to win, they will HAVE to find a way into the end zone. The low Over/Under number makes this a game that's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row.

My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win.

The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team."

LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG).

Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG.

Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three.

This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have opened 8-0 behind a suffocating defense that is No. 1 in scoring D (7.6 PPG) and total D (234.0 YPG). New England also leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks. The Pats are No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-17) and have incredibly allowed just 15 third-down conversions in 96 attempts. Brady is not having a vintage season (64.7% for 2,251 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs), while New England's running game is averaging only 95.2 YPG (23rd). However, the Pats lead the NFL with an average of 31.2 PPG. Bill Belichick's team is seeking its first 9-0 start since 2015 when it visit Baltimore for NBC's SNF. The Patriots are 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings (6-1 with Brady) with the Ravens, but Baltimore has posted a pair of playoff victories at New England in that span.

The Ravens are 5-2 and lead a division (AFC North) which features three sub-.500 teams (Steelers are in 2nd-place at 3-4). The Ravens were off last week and QB Lamar Jackson threw for a season-low 143 yards in a 30-16 Week 7 win at Seattle. However, he ran for 116 yards and a TD. It was his third 100-yard game of the season to boost his team-leading total to 576. Jackson is the only QB to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards (1,650) and rush for 500 (576 on 6.9 YPC with 3 TDs) in the first seven games of a season. Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards (4.7 YPC) and seven TDs. That duo has Baltimore leading the NFL in rushing yards (204.1 YPG on 5.5 YPC) and only New England is averaging more than Baltimore's 30.6 PPG. However, the team's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era, allowing 22.3 PPG on 349.7 YPG (both averages rank 16th).

I could go on and on listing superlatives about New England. The Patriots have already squared off and WON against four QBs drafted in the first round in 2018 and will now face a fifth member from that class in Jackson. What's more, New England has won 21 straight against first- or second-year QBs but as noted above, Lamar Jackson is literally, in a "class by himself" (see above). I noted Baltimore's top-ranked rushing offense above and will add that the Pats allowed 159 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) last Sunday against the Browns. Could Baltimore run the ball and keep it away from Brady. Teams can't "win'em all" and it's tough to ignore that under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 9-2 SU coming off a bye week. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Cle/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, as they were expecting to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season enters its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-5, after losing their THIRD consecutive game 27-13 at New England last Sunday. The Browns visit Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos. Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos D is allowing 18.9 PPG (4th) on 304.5 YPG (4th) but the team's offense (15.6 PPG, ranking 28th) has kept them from doing any better than 2-6.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 57.6 percent with 6 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 67.8. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (738 yards on 5.5 YPC with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry, who have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play. The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (22nd).

Denver QB Joe Flacco was diagnosed with a herniated disk in his neck after last Sunday's 15-13 to the Colts, a contest in which he complained about the team's conservative play-calling. Whether or not Flacco was right, we know that he has failed to eclipse more than 213 yards passing in each of his last four games and has thrown just six TDs (five INTs) on the season. Denver's running game is averaging only 110.0 YPG (16th) but the Broncos do own a pair of quality RBs in Lindsay (492 yards / 4.5 YPC) and Freeman (359 yards / 4.1 YPC). Flacco's herniated disk will sideline him six weeks at a minimum, so the Broncos will turn to Brandon Allen, a fourth-year pro from Arkansas who will make his first start since Jan 2, 2016, against Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.

Allen becomes the SIXTH different starting QB for the Broncos since the start of the 2016 season (Elway sure KNOWS a QB when he sees one!). "First of all, Brandon is a very intelligent dude,” RB Phillip Lindsay said. “I’m excited to see what he has to offer. I think he’s going to move around a lot, and I think he’s going to take shots and stuff.” Speaking of Lindsay, he joins Freeman as a solid 1-2 RB Denver combo that will face a Cleveland rush D allowing 143.3 YPG on the ground (29th). I expect Denver to be successful against Cleveland's sad-sack defense but I also see a good (possibly excellent) performance from Mayfield, now that Browns realize 2019 we be another in a long line of disappointments. This VERY low Over/Under number gives us a strong play on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday.

The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back.

Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th).

KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1).

Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco.

Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs.

In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1).

At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5.

Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th).

Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways.

Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS).

San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22.

Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success.

Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7.

Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th).

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182).

Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Total of the Month is on NYJ/Jax Over at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were in Cincinnati last Sunday to take on the winless Bengals. The Jags had forced just ONE turnover in their first six games but got the Bengals to cough up the ball FOUR times, as they snapped a two-game slide with a 27-17 win. The 3-4 Jags return home this Sunday to face the 1-5 Jets, who are coming off an embarrassing 33-0 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday, a contest in which they turned the ball over SIX times. Seems like the perfect set-up for the Jags to even their record at 4-4.

Sam Darnold made a "triumphant return" for the Jets against Dallas in Week 6, as he led New York to its first win of the season, 24-22. The second-year pro from USC completed 23 of 32 for 338 yards with two TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 113.8. However, his "15 minutes of fame" lasted all of one week, as he completed 11 of 32 for 86 yards with four INTs against the Pats, 'earning' him a QB rating of 3.6. He also lost a fumble plus failed to control a high snap that wound up as a safety for the Pats. To add insult to injury, sideline microphones caught him saying he was "seeing ghosts" after his third INT.. "I just gotta see the field a lot better," Darnold told reporters. "That's kinda what that means. It was a rough day out there, rough night out there, and obviously I gotta be better and learn from the mistakes. But we will get better." Can the Jets get any worse? One positive in the Jets' loss to the Patriots was RB Le'Veon Bell's season-high 70 yards on 15 carries, against a New England defense that ranks 1st in points allowed (6.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (223.1 YPG).

"It's what Jaguar defense is all about," linebacker Myles Jack told reporters after the win at Cincy. "We create turnovers. We play physical. We've been playing good defense. We just haven't been able to get those turnovers that we needed. So, once we're able to create that, I feel like it puts our offense in easier situations, do their thing, and allow them to get into a rhythm. It's a great feeling, man. It's a great feeling to see that ball going the other way." Nick Foles, who suffered a broken clavicle in the first game of the season, finally returned to practice on a limited basis this week but he is not eligible to come off injured reserve until Week 9. That means the QB duties will remain with rookie Gardner Minshew, who has 10 TD passes and just TWO interceptions in six starts. He is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,697 yards. He's ably complemented by a rushing attack averaging 140.1YPG (5th) on 5.1 YPC. The ground game is led by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette, who has 715 yards on 5.0 YPC.

I do NOT see the New York defense, which allows 26.0 PPG (23rd), reigning in Minshew and Fournette. However, I HAVE to believe Darnold is capable of a bounce-back. This over/under is tantalizingly low and just like my Sep Total of the Month (Jax/Den Over 37.5, which ended 26-24), I'm Goin' Over with the Jags in this one against the Jets.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET.

There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later)..

The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?).

The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014.

OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points.

The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters.

Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st).

Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!).

Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Cin Over at 1:00 ET.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, as Jacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception. The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd).

Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st).

The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL). The Jags will score against this D and look for Cincy's Dalton to "air it out." He has a non-existent running game, so what's Plan B? This game goes OVER this modest number easily.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee.

Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th).

The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives."

Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.”

The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th).

However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd).

Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2).

Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1.

Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season.

Good luck...Larry