|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-20-18||Eastern Michigan v. Ball State +3||42-20||Loss||-109||121 h 2 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ball State 8* (3:00 EST).
Ball State is 3-4 overall and 2-1 in the MAC West. The Cardinals though come in with plenty of momentum as they look to move back to .500, most recently rallying from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to knock off CMU last weekend 24-23.
EMU held on for a 28-26 win last weekend, nearly squandering a 28-3 half-time lead, struggling after QB Mike Glass left with injury.
If Glass can’t play today (and if he does, one has to wonder about his health?!), then Tyler Wiegers would fill in. Last week he was 11 of 15 for 83 yards and he’s been decent with five TDs and just one INT this season.
Ball State still needs three more wins for bowl eligibility, so the home side will clearly have the “foot on the gas” from start to finish here as it looks to take advantage of this EMU team that’s dealing with some pretty major QB issues at the moment.
Ball State has a solid receiving corps, led by Riley Neal, who has 40 catches for 546 yards.
The Cardinals are averaging a very respectable 441.4 yards of offense a game, thanks in part to them running nearly 85 play on offense per contest.
I’ll point out as well that Ball State is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing fewer than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while EMU is a horrible 9-23 ATS in its last 32 following a SU victory.
For all the reason listed above, play on Ball State.
|10-20-18||Michigan -7 v. Michigan State||21-7||Win||100||119 h 37 m||Show|
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Michigan (12:00 EST).
Michigan State traveled to Ann Arbor last year and scored the 14-10 upset victory. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time!
Michigan looks to avenge that setback and it comes into this one on top form, having posted six straight victories after an Opening season loss to Notre Dame.
Michigan State on the other hand looks poised for a classic “letdown” here in my opinion after a big win over Penn State last weekend.
Last week the Wolverines won 38-13 at home over Wisconsin. QB Shea Patterson had 124 passing yards, along with a season-high 90 yards rushing with a TD. RB Karan Higdon had 100 yards rushing as well.
The difference maker today for me though is the Wolverines’ defensive unit, which limited Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook to 100 passing yards, one TD and two INT’s. Wisconsin came into that game averaging 30.3 points and 447.3 YPG.
MSU QB Brian Lewerke managed a TD pass to Felton Davis with 19 seconds left on the clock to score the 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions last weekend. But it wasn’t pretty, as Lewerke finished with a 22.8 QB rating and he was sacked three times, while the offensive line would additionally give up seven tackles for a loss.
I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and only 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last against the conference.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Michigan.
|10-18-18||Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State||Top||20-13||Win||100||80 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF MONTH is on Stanford (9:00 EST).
Stanford comes into this one hungry and rested. The Cardinal are off their bye and they’re looking to halt a two-game slide, most recently falling to Notre Dame and Utah.
Arizona State is just 1-3 in its last four, most recently falling to Colorado.
Stanford has to be feeling more confident this week though because RB Bryce Love, who has missed the last two games with a small injury, is back and ready to go. Love already has 327 yards through four games.
With Love in the line-up, Stanford is an entirely different team and I have a hard time seeing ASU’s porous defensive front slowing him down at all.
ASU also comes in off its bye, but instead of rest leading to success, I think the opposite will be true for the Sun Devils. QB Manny Wilkins was injured in the loss to Colorado, but he’s also been given the green light today.
I’ll point out though that Arizona State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three following its bye-week and only 2-4 ATS in its last six when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Stanford is 2-1 ATS in its last three following its bye and 6-3 ATS in its last nine when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3.
The Cardinal have upcoming games against Washington and Washington State, so they can ill afford another loss.
Stanford’s recent slide is directly attributable to Love’s absence, but now that he’s back though I’m expecting a complete “180.”
Lay the points.
|10-18-18||Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||45-10||Win||100||79 h 55 m||Show|
My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST)
Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams.
Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota.
Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s.
The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s.
Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home.
I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points.
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5||30-33||Loss||-102||34 h 7 m||Show|
My 9* Total Wipeout Winner is the under 49ers/Packers (8:15 EST).
The 49ers come in off a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals. After losing starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to injury three weeks ago and sitting at just 1-4, San Francisco’s season is essentially over.
If the 49ers hope to turn things around, the last thing they can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Aaron Rodgers and company.
The Packers have been trading good starts with bad. After a 22-0 win over the Bills, they took a step back in last week’s 31-23 setback to Detroit.
But the Green Bay defense has a big opportunity to redeem itself here against San Francisco back-up QB CJ Beathard, who for the most part has struggled in his forced started role.
Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Green Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
This number is a little high, play the under.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||Top||40-43||Push||0||158 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.
KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue.
Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD.
After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well.
A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive.
Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year.
And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots.
|10-14-18||Jaguars v. Cowboys +3||7-40||Win||100||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).
I believe the more “desperate” team will win here. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott’s ability is being called into question and I believe the beleaguered pivot will respond with his best performance of the season.
The Jags come in off a tough 40-14 road loss at Kansas City and they now have to muster up the energy for another difficult road match-up this week.
Dallas enters off a 19-16 OT loss at Houston last Sunday.
The Jags are averaging only 20.5 PPG and they’re conceding 17.4. QB Blake Bortles has 1,525 passing yards and a weak 8/7 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette has struggled with a hamstring issue and it’s clearly effected the chemistry of the offense.
Dallas is averaging only 16.6 PPG and it’s conceding only 19.2. Prescott had 961 passing yards with five TDs and four INTs, while also running for 121 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot has 480 yards and two TDs.
I’ll point out though that Jacksonville is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of three points or less range.
I think Elliot and the home side defense delivers a victory for Jerry Jones on Sunday afternoon.
Grab the points.
|10-14-18||Colts +2.5 v. Jets||Top||34-42||Loss||-102||142 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others.
Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21.
Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6.
Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less.
I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points.
|10-14-18||Chargers v. Browns OVER 44||38-14||Win||100||141 h 15 m||Show|
My 8* Goin Over Total is on the over Chargers/Browns (1:00 EST).
Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful.
LA enters off a convincing 26-10 him win over Oakland, while Cleveland posted a 12-9 OT home victory over Baltimore. Last year Philip Rivers beat the Browns 19-10 at home and he’d pass for 344 yards and a TD.
LA comes in averaging 27.4 PPG and it’s conceding 26. The margin for victory is slim. Rivers though has a sparkling 13/2 TD/INT ratio.
Cleveland is averaging 22.8 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. RB Carlos Hyde now has 348 rushing yards and five TD’s.
The Browns defense looked superb last week against a poor passing game (Joe Flacco), but I think the unit will have its hands full today against Rivers’ arial assault.
Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3 and in four of its last five as a home dog of three points or less.
Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite.
I think this number is a little low, play the over.
|10-14-18||Bucs v. Falcons -3||29-34||Win||100||141 h 47 m||Show|
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger considering all of the great situational factors working in favor of the desperate Falcons today.
Atlanta is just 1-4 overall after three straight loss to the Saints, Bengals and Steelers. Tampa started the season well, but it stumbled with two straight losses before its bye week.
Now Tampa welcomes back starting QB Jameis Winston to the fold, after Ryan “Fitz-Magic” predictably came back down to Earth after a couple of big games to start the year.
The Bucs’ weakness on defense? Their pass rush and defending the pass. Jason Pierre-Paul has four sacks and nine QB hits, however Tampa is still tied for 26th in sack rate after five weeks.
Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan is still seventh in the league with 1,601 passing passing yards. The Falcons will look to take advantage of a Tampa team which has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with losing home records and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall.
I think Winston will go through some “growing pains” in his debut and I believe it’s also worth noting that the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 in this series as well.
Lay the points, play on Atlanta.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||Top||20-31||Win||100||128 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on USC (10:30 EST).
Colorado enters off a 28-21 home win over Arizona State, while USC got the better of Arizona 24-20 on the road as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Trojans have to be liking their chances today, because when these teams met last year USC would post the convincing 38-24 road victory.
I think Colorado comes in complacent after it’s 5-0 start. Overall the Buffs are averaging 37.8 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 18.4. QB Steven Montez had 328 passing with two TDs in last week’s win over Colorado State.
USC is averaging 24.6 PPG and its conceding 26.2. QB JT Daniels had 197 passing yards last week, while RB Aca’Cedric Ware had 173 rushing yards.
After two poor performances on the defensive side of the ball to Texas and Washington State, the Trojans limited Arizona to just 98 rushing yards last week.
I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records, while USC is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival.
I like USC’s improved defensive play to carry over here and I’m finally expecting the Buffs to stumble. Lay the points.
|10-13-18||Hawaii v. BYU -14.5||23-49||Win||100||128 h 5 m||Show|
Writeup: My 8* Bailout is on BYU (10:15 EST).
After three straight victories, I think the Warriors are going to finally stumble here at the national level.
The Warriors are 6-1 and the currently lead the West Division of the Mountain West Conference.
Hawaii though has won its last two games by a combined seven points. Last week it had to hold on for a much tougher than expected 17-13 win over Wyoming. QB Chevan Cordeiro was 19 of 29 for 148 with two TD’s and an INT.
BYU will be eager to get back on track here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 45-20 home loss to Utah State. QB Tanner Mangum was 27 of 46 for 270 yards with two TD’s and an INT. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on WR Dylan Collie, who had eight catches for 68 yards and a TD last week, but who had 1,300 yards receiving and nine TD’s with Hawaii before transferring last season.
BYU is deep, as four players have at least ten receptions and seven different players have a TD catch.
I’ll point out as well that the Cougars are 15-8 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games, while Hawaii is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position.
For all the reason listed above, play on BYU.
|10-13-18||Western Kentucky v. Charlotte +9.5||14-40||Win||100||121 h 23 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Charlotte 8* (3:30 EST).
While I’m not predicting an outright upset, I do think the home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Both teams come in off their bye week. WKU most recently lost 20-17 at home to Marshall, while Charlotte lost 28-7 to UAB in its latest action. This is a revenge game for the 49ers after the Hilltoppers took the only other game ever played between the schools, a 45-14 home win last October 14th.
WKU is averaging 18.6 PPG and it’s conceding 25. QB Drew Ecklels has 514 yards with three TD’s so far, while Davis Shanley has 412 yards and a TD.
Charlotte was out gained 330-271 by UAB in its loss two weeks ago. It did however own a convincing 33:37 to 26:26 time of possession advantage. Two costly turnovers proved to be too much to overcome.
The 49ers average 21.8 PPG and they concede 31.4. QB Chris Reynolds had 1,062 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while RB Benny LeMay has 414 yards with three scores on the ground.
I’ll point out though that WKU is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Charlotte is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival.
I think the week off helps Charlotte in this home situation. Grab the points.
|10-13-18||Marshall -3.5 v. Old Dominion||42-20||Win||100||121 h 23 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall 8* (3:30 EST).
Marshall enters off a 34-24 home loss to MTSU, while ODU was smashed 52-33 at FAU last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Herd have to be liking their chances this afternoon because when these schools met last year it was Marshall which posted the convincing 35-3 win at home.
Marshall is averaging 26.2 PPG and it’s conceding 26.4. Last week QB Alex Thomson had 173 passing yards with two TD’s and one INT. RB Tyler King though had a big day with 165 rushing yards. WR Tyre Brady has 427 receiving yards and five TDs.
Marshall’s lone conference win was a tight 20-17 road victory at WKU.
ODU is averaging 28.7 PPG and it’s conceding 38.7. RB Jeremy Cox was poor last week with 13 yards on eight carries. QB Blake LaRussa had 383 yards, two TDs and two INTs.
The Monarchs defense was terrible though, allowing 52 points on 605 total yards against FAU and I think Thomson and Brady will have their opportunities as well.
Additionally note that Marshall is still 8-5 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while ODU is a poor 5-10 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog and just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Marshall.
|10-13-18||Washington -3.5 v. Oregon||27-30||Loss||-100||121 h 22 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington 8* (3:30 EST).
I like the No. 7 Washington Huskies to pull away down the stretch in Oregon to take on the No. 17 Ducks.
Washington enters off a potentially dangerous victory over UCLA last week, avoiding the “trap” and at least securing a solid 31-24 outright road win.
Oregon had its bye week, but before that it got the better of Cal 42-24 on the road on September 29th.
If recent history is any precedence, then Washington has to be liking it chances this afternoon, because when these teams played last year the Huskies would smash the Ducks 38-3.
Washington is averaging 29.2 PPG and it’s conceding only 13.7. Last week QB Jake Browning had 265 passing yards with one TD and one INT. Overall he has 1,508 passing yards and a 9/5 TD/INT.
Oregon is averaging 45.6 PPG and it’s conceding 24.4. QB Justin Herbert had 225 yards and two TDs in the victory over Cal on Sept. 29th.
I’ll point out though that Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival, while Oregon is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as an underdog.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington.
|10-13-18||Nebraska +5.5 v. Northwestern||31-34||Win||100||118 h 55 m||Show|
My 9* Eye Opener is on Nebraska (12:00 EST).
Nebraska will need to run the table to earn a bowl bid and while that obviously isn’t going to happen, I still believe that Scott Frost will have his troops ready to play as they look to get off the schneid and break the 0-5 slide.
In fact the Huskers have lost nine straight dating back to last year.
Note that that slide started with a loss to these very Wildcats.
With a chance to avenge that setback and to finally punch one into the win column, I’m expecting this contest to come right down to the wire.
Besides, Northwestern is primed for a letdown here after last week’s upset win over MSU, a victory which snapped a three-game skid of its own.
Last week Nebraska fell 41-24 to Wisconsin. The defense has been the major issue to this point, allowing 39.2 PPG so far. QB Adrian Martinez though is starting to trend in the correct direction and I think that progression gets carried over.
Northwestern enters off the shocking 29-19 win over MSU last weekend. The run game was once again a disaster though, posting just eight positive yards. QB Clayton Throson had a mixed back with 373 yards and three TDs, but also two INTs. Overall he has a weak 6/5 TD/INT.
These teams are evenly matched in my estimation. But I’m banking on all of the external motivating factors working in favor of the visitors to be the difference here.
Grab the points.
|10-13-18||Florida v. Vanderbilt +7.5||37-27||Loss||-129||118 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Vanderbilt (12:00 EST).
I think the No. 14 ranked Gators come in a bit complacent here and get caught looking past the hungry Commodores. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect a much tighter than expected battle.
Vandy has played a very difficult schedule to open the campaign, with two Top 10 opponents in Georgia and Notre Dame. Next week the Commodores are at No. 18 Kentucky.
The Gators come in content after back-to-back wins over ranked foes, most recently knocking off LSU 27-10. QB Feleipe Franke was just 17 of 27 though for 161 yards, one TD and one INT. Overall the Gators are averaging 34 PPG and conceding 14.8.
The Commodores were humbled by Georgia 41-13 last week. QB Kyle Shurmur was only 14 of 28 for 169 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. The Commodores though would run for 138 yards. Overall though Shurmur owns a respectable 9/4 TD/INT. Overally Vandy averages 25.2 PPG and it concedes just 24.
I’ll point out as well that Florida is still just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite an interestingly, 0-6 ATS in games played on turf, while Vandy 3-0 ATS in its last three as home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|10-11-18||Eagles -3 v. Giants||Top||34-13||Win||100||77 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).
While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week.
Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines.
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards.
New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s.
Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home.
The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York.
Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests.
I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints OVER 52||19-43||Win||100||35 h 10 m||Show|
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Skins/Saints (8:15 EST).
The Saints will be opening up the playbook today in an attempt to get QB Drew Brees at least 201 passing yards. Brees is on the cusp of becoming the league’s all time passing leader and I look for the veteran pivot to put on a show in front of the home town crowd today.
So that means that the 2-1 Redskins, who come out rested after their bye week, and QB Alex Smith will be forced to match pace. And that suits Smith just fine. So far the veteran has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 767 yards with four TD’s and one INT.
Smith has gotten plenty of help as well from RB Adrian Peterson, who is enjoying a resurgence in the Nation’s capital, so far with 236 yards and three TD’s.
Brees so far has 75.8 percent of his passes so far this year to go along with 1,295 passing yards with eight TD’s and no INT’s.
He’s going to benefit greatly today as well from the return of bruising back Mark Ingram. The combo of Ingram and Alvin Kamara makes the Saints offense extremely dangerous, as opposing defenses are forced to stay honest.
I’m not expecting a lot of defense being played by either side. Not that New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 31 games after a straight up victory of more than 14 points, while Washington has seen the total go over nine of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range.
This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout, one which is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry team’s has its hands on the ball last.
Play the over.
|10-07-18||Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans||16-19||Win||100||152 h 4 m||Show|
My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:20 EST).
Both teams got back into the win column last week. Each will be as equally hungry this week for another victory. I’m expecting an all out war until the final whistle.
Dallas enters off a 26-24 home win over Detroit last week to even its recent at 2-2. RB Ezekiel Elliot was unstoppable, going for 152 yards rushing, four catches for 88 yards and also a TD. QB Dak Prescott was 17 of 27 for 255 yards and two TD’s.
On the defensive side, Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence had three sacks last week.
Houston is still on the ropes despite last week’s victory, sitting at 1-3. DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT in an exhausting 37-34 OT win over Indianapolis. De’Andre Hopkins had 169 yards and a TD.
I’ll point out though that Houston has really struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-6 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival (also note that it’s a poor 8-9 ATS In its last 17 at home), while Dallas has in fact excelled in this position by going 10-7 ATS in its last 17 on the road (despite being 0-2 ATS this year) and 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records.
This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one which comes out on top. Grab the points.
|10-07-18||Rams -7 v. Seahawks||Top||33-31||Loss||-114||148 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).
To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right?
Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point.
However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that.
Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s.
Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8.
Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s.
Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3.
The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams.
|10-07-18||Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 52.5||10-26||Win||100||148 h 51 m||Show|
My 9* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Chargers (4:05 EST).
Oakland comes in off a 45-42 home win over Cleveland, while LA held on for a tough 29-27 victory over San Francisco.
After both teams played to higher-scoring “shoot-outs” last weekend, I’m expecting a much more defensive “chess match” in Week 5.
Raiders’ RB Marshawn Lynch had a big game against the Browns, going for 130 yards. He now had 300 yards rushing and three TD’s. LA is 18th against the run, so look for Jon Gruden to establish the run game throughout tonight.
The weakness in Oakland is on the defensive side, but I think the unit bounces back this weekend.
The Chargers can’t be happy with the way they performed last week, facing the 49ers and a back-up QB as a 14 point fav, they barely held on for the victory.
Philip Rivers continues to be a bright spot for the Chargers, he has 11 TD’s and two INT’s.
I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten against teams with losing records, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in ten of its last 13 against the division.
This number is a little high, play the under.
|10-07-18||Falcons +3.5 v. Steelers||17-41||Loss||-115||145 h 47 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
Both teams are desperate for a victory and I’m expecting an all out battle until the end.
Atlanta is 1-3 overall and it’s coming off consecutive home losses to New Orleans and Cincinnati. The Steelers have struggled as well this year, most recently coming off a humbling loss at home to the Ravens.
Atlanta is 28th in the league on the defensive side of the ball, but it did look somewhat better in the second half of its 37-36 loss to the Bengals. The offense took a step back last year, but it’s now the team’s strength.
Matt Ryan and company will be given the green light here today obviously to test this suspect Steelers’ secondary.
The Steelers have been dealing with on field and off field issues all year. Note that Pittsburgh isn’t going to have star RB Le’Veon Bell back until Week 8 against Cleveland and his backup James Conner is averaging just 3.7 YPC.
With such a one-dimensional offense, the Falcons’ defense definitely catches a break this week.
I’ll point out as well that ATL is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position.
Grab the points.
|10-07-18||Giants +7 v. Panthers||Top||31-33||Win||100||145 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs.
Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week.
The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground.
Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG.
Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range.
I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York.
|10-06-18||California v. Arizona -1.5||17-24||Win||100||130 h 48 m||Show|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Arizona (10:00 EST).
I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
Arizona QB Khalil Tate has struggled somewhat this year, but I think he’ll have his opportunities tonight against the Golden Bears.
Cal looks ripe for the picking here after its first loss of the season in a 42-24 home defeat to No. 19 Oregon. The Golden Bears would go on to commit five turnovers in the setback. Cal utilizes a two QB system, but both Mcillwain and Garbers struggled against the Ducks defensive pressure. In all they combined for two fumbles and four INT’s.
Overall Cal comes in averaging 28.5 PPG, while conceding 25.
The Wildcats are averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 28.4. Tate was 16 of 33 for 232 yards, two TD’s and one INT in last week’s 24-20 loss to USC. RB JJ Taylor remains a standout with 527 yards rushing and three TD’s so far (5.9 YPC.)
I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after scoring 21 points or less in its previous contest.
I like Tate to bounce back here. Play on Arizona.
|10-06-18||Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia Tech||45-23||Win||100||128 h 10 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Notre Dame 8* (8:00 EST).
Notre Dame is undefeated so far this season and I think the Irish carry over that momentum over at least one more game. Last week ND defeated a good Stanford team.
Virginia Tech is 3-1, its lone loss was a big upset to ODU.
In the victory over the Cardinal, ND QB Ian Book was 24 of 33 for 278 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. WR Miles Boykin had 11 catches for 144 yards.
The Hokies were a 6.5 point underdog in Duke last week, but they ended leaving with a 31-14 outright victory. QB Ryan Willis had 332 yards and three TD’s.
Note though that the VT defense is suspect, especially after allowing 632 yards of offense to the Monarchs just two weeks ago.
I’ll point out as well that the Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, while ND is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a three games or more unbeaten streak.
VT is still without starting QB Josh Jackson to injury. I think his backup is going to struggle against this focused and talented Notre Dame defense though. Lay the points with confidence.
|10-06-18||Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5||Top||14-20||Win||100||127 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on Texas A&M (7:00 EST).
Kentucky comes in off back-to-back wins and I think it’ll get caught complacent after victories over then No. 14 Mississippi State and last week’s 24-10 effort over South Carolina.
Texas A&M bounced back last week from a loss to Alabama by beating Arkansas 24-17.
Kentucky comes in ranked as the No. 13 team in the country after starting the year 5-0. The defense has been the biggest difference this season Mark Stoops’ team. However, I think that unit is going to be tested by the Aggies up-tempo offense today in this difficult road venue.
Texas A&M might have two losses already, but it’s been against Alabama and Clemson (and note that in the setback to the Tigers, it came down to final moments.) In last week’s win RB Trayveon Williams was a stand out with 152 rushing yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out as well that Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS win and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 played on grass, while Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 in its last nine following a SU victory.
I think Kentucky will indeed finally come up short in College Station. The Wildcats aren’t running the table this year and I look for the perfect start to come to an end here.
I’m laying the points.
|10-06-18||Northern Illinois -3.5 v. Ball State||24-16||Win||100||123 h 50 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Northern Illinois 8* (3:00 EST).
NIU will look to keep the foot on the gas here after a 2-0 start in the West Division of the MAC. Ball State ended a three-game skid with a win over lowly Kent State last weekend.
NIU took out EMU 26-23 last week. The Huskies’ defense is limiting teams to just 348.6 YPG though, which ranks 41st nationally. The offense leaves everything to desire, but NIU catches a break this week facing Ball State.
Last week the Cardinals hammered Kent State 52-24, but the Flashes are just terrible defensively. So far Ball State’s numbers are skewed because of a dominant offensive performance against an FCS opponent to start the year.
I’ll point out as well that Ball State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while NIU is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games against teams with losing home records.
I think the Huskies’ tough defensive play is the difference in this one. Lay the points.
|10-06-18||Boston College +4 v. NC State||Top||23-28||Loss||-102||120 h 23 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (12:30 EST).
Boston College bounced back from its first loss of the year to secure a convincing 45-35 win over Temple at home last Saturday, which was a potential “trap” for the Eagles. With that “land-mine” out of the way, I think BC will at the very least, keep this one competitive down to the final moments.
NC State comes in a tiny bit complacent, still unbeaten after hammering Virginia 35-21 at home last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game as well for Boston College after NC State won 17-14 on the road in the last matchup on November 11th, 2017.
BC is averaging 43.2 PPG and it’s conceding just 26.8. QB Anthony Brown has 861 passing yards with 12 TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 652 yards rushing with six TD’s.
NC State is averaging 34.3 PPG and it’s conceding 15.3. QB Ryan Finley has 1,313 yards with eight TD’s and one INT. RB Reggie Gallaspy II has 220 yards and five scores.
I’ll point out though that BC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while NC State is only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival.
I think the Eagles’ high-flying offense finally tests this NC State Wolfpack defense. Look for this one to be decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last and grab the points.
|10-06-18||Syracuse -5.5 v. Pittsburgh||37-44||Loss||-106||120 h 10 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Syracuse 8* (12:20 EST)
Syracuse enters off a 27-23 loss to No. 3 Clemson, while Pitt returns home after a humbling 45-14 beatdown loss to No. 13 UCF last Saturday.
The Orange average 44.2 PPG and they concede 21.4. Last week Syracuse took the loss despite allowing only one turnover, while forcing three. QB Eric Dungey so far has 1,013 yards with nine TD’s and two INT’s, while Moe Neal has 367 yards on the ground and two scores.
The Panthers average 22.4 PPG and they concede 32. QB Kenny Pickett has 743 years, five TD’s and four INT’s (he also has 111 rushing yards and two more scores.) Qadree Oillison has 404 yards on the ground with four more scores.
I’ll point out though that Pitt is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The Orange gave Clemson everything it could handle and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points.
|10-05-18||Utah State +2.5 v. BYU||Top||45-20||Win||100||107 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* RIVALRY ROUT is on Utah State (9:00 EST).
Utah State comes in fresh off its bye and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the handful of points. In their previous game the Aggies posted a 42-32 home victory over Air Force.
BYU returns home dejected after its listless 35-7 road loss to Washington.
If recent history is any precedence, then Utah State has to be loving its chances here today, as note that it would destroy BYU 40-24 at home in last year’s matchup.
Note that Utah State also managed to score 31 points against a strong Michigan State team in Week 1. QB Jordan Love had 356 passing yards and two TD’s in the win over the Falcons two weeks ago.
The Aggies also feature a strong run game with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for over 550 yards already.
Utah State’s defense has also been decent. Overall the Aggies are averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing 23.8.
BYU is averaging 21.4 PPG and it’s conceding just 20.6. Its two-game win skein came to an end in last week’s setback to No. 11 Washington. QB Tanner Mangum was 18 of 21 for 160 yards. He has 772 passing yards and a weak 3/2 TD/INT.
RB Squally Canada so far has 335 rushing yards and five TD’s to lead the offensive side of things for BYU.
The Cougars outstanding defensive play has led to victories over Arizona and Wisconsin already this season, but I think the unit will stumble here against this high-octane Aggies unit, which comes in rested as well.
I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, while Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Aggies.
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||24-38||Win||100||82 h 3 m||Show|
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST).
I had a play on New England last week in its 38-7 win over the Dolphins.
A short week is tough on both teams, but doubly so for the road side. The Pats come in off a confidence building win and they’ll be out to build off that victory and take advantage of this favorable spot against a dejected Colts team which comes in off a 37-34 OT loss to the Texans.
The Colts rallied from a 28-10 hole, but in the end it wasn’t enough and after that heart-breaker, I don’t believe the team has had enough time to collectively re-group to face New England. QB Andrew Luck has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s so far, but he’s also been sacked nine times.
Pats’ QB Tom Brady has 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He’s been sacked six times. Note that the offense gets a major boost here as well with the return of main WR Julian Edelman from his four game suspension.
TY Hilton is listed as questionable for the Colts and if he does manage to suit up, one has to wonder what type of form he’ll be in?
I’ll point out that the Colts are a poor 12-15 ATS in their last 27 as the underdog, while the Patriots are a superb 29-12 in their last 41 as the favorite.
For all the reasons listed above, play on New England.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||35 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST).
The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage.
I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion.
Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight.
Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year.
Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter.
Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24.
I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.
|09-30-18||Ravens +3.5 v. Steelers||26-14||Win||100||133 h 32 m||Show|
My 9* MAGIC is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).
Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over Tampa Bay, but I think it’ll take a predictable step back here.
Baltimore lost to Cincinnati, but it bounced back big last week against the Broncos and I look for it to carry that momentum over here.
Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has struggled so far this year, but he now faces a porous Pittsburgh defensive front which is allowing 122.3 YPG on the ground to opposing offenses. QB Joe Flacco continues to look great at times and poor in others.
Pittsburgh managed to put together its best effort of the season in last week’s victory over Tampa Bay. WR Antonio Brown had 50 yards receiving and a TD.
Ben Roethlisberger looked great last week, but he’s always had his hands full with the Ravens’ pass rushers.
Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home and only 5-7 ATS In its last 12 against the division, while Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3.
I think the Ravens take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.
|09-30-18||Browns +3 v. Raiders||42-45||Push||0||147 h 36 m||Show|
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST).
I had a play on the Browns last Thursday night and I think they’ll keep this one competitive here as well.
Cleveland comes in off its first win in two years against the Jets after Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor.
Oakland on the other hand is ripe of the picking, dejected and still searching for its first win of the season. Jon Gruden is rich, but he obviously can’t be happy where his team is currently sitting.
Last week Mayfield was 17 of 23 for 201 yards. He didn’t throw a TD, but I think he’ll have plenty of chances today against this suspect Raiders’ secondary.
Oakland has given up an average of 374.3 yards and 28 points on average this year. QB Derek Carr has averaged 312 passing yards per game, but note that he has three more INT’s than he does TD’s to this point. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a bright spot with 170 yards and three scores.
I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home. The Browns don’t have too many positive ATS stats after such a long losing streak, but as mentioned off the top, I do absolutely feel that the pieces are in place for Cleveland to continue progression across the board.
Grab the points.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).
It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point.
Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.)
I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though.
The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3.
Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.)
Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats.
|09-30-18||Lions +3 v. Cowboys||Top||24-26||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here.
Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990.
Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR.
The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7.
Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT.
Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record.
Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points.
|09-30-18||Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38||12-31||Win||100||144 h 32 m||Show|
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jets/Jags (1:00 EST).
It’s an important game for both teams. I think this total will eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch.
New York comes in off a 21-17 loss to Cleveland. The Jets had a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on down the stretch.
Overall though the Jets have been competitive this year, averaging 25.7 PPG and conceding 19.3. Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TD’s and five INT’s through three games.
Jacksonville beat the Patriots and then it fell flat in last week’s 9-6 loss to Tennessee. QB Blake Bortles had 155 yards passing. So far the Jags are averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing just 14.7.
I’ll point out though that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 at home, while New York has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records.
These are two under-performing offenses which come in with something to prove. Play the over.
|09-29-18||USC v. Arizona UNDER 61||Top||24-20||Win||100||110 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under USC/Arizona (10:30 EST).
Arizona has won back to back gams, including a 35-14 victory over Oregon State to open Pac-12 play last Saturday.
The Wildcats will be tested by USC, which is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Pac-12 play. Last week JT Daniels threw for 241 yards and three TD’s in his team’s 39-36 come from behind win over WSU.
After that emotional victory though, I do definitely feel that the Trojans are poised for a bit of a letdown this week. Tyler Vaughns was another standout last week with 64 receiving yards and a TD. The run game was strong as well, posting 155 overall.
Arizona RB JJ Taylor rushed for a career-high 284 yards last week, and he had scoring runs of 62 and 40 yards. QB Khalil Tate has been turned into more of a pocket passer this year; last season he rushed for 1,411 yards and so far this season he has 73 total yards.
But the Wildcats’ defense was the most impressive thing to me last week, holding Oregon State to a season-low 238 yards. Arizona had been horrible defensively before that, but it was a big step in the right direction and I think the unit has a big opportunity to build off that performance against what I believe to be a “gassed” Trojans’ offense.
I’ll point out as well that USC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as an underdog.
I think the stage is set for more of a defensive battle. Play the under.
|09-29-18||Marshall v. Western Kentucky +6.5||20-17||Win||100||107 h 49 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Western Kentucky 9* (7:30 EST).
Marshall comes in off its first loss of the year in a setback against NC State last week. The Thundering Herd broke a three-game losing streak in this series last year, but I think WKU will bounce back and revenge that loss with its first home victory over the season.
Marshall allowed 377 passing yards last week. QB Isaiah Green has been very lacklustre as well to this point, coming in sporting a 6/3 TD/INT ratio.
WKU won’t be taking anything for granted. After a tough 0-3 start, the Hilltoppers now look to build off last week’s solid 28-20 win over Ball State.
WKU’s defense has made big strides in just two games and I think that momentum gets carried over here.
I’ll point out as well that Marshall is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while WKU is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog in the same points range.
I don’t think home field can be overlooked as a factor working in favor of WKU here either. Grab the points.
|09-29-18||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-17||Win||100||125 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Iowa State (7:00 EST).
Both teams are hungry for its first conference victory. TCU comes in dejected off two straight losses, most recently to Ohio State (40-28) and Texas (31-16) this past weekend.
Iowa State on the other hand enters off a confidence building 26-13 home win over Akron, snapping a two-game slide to Iowa (13-3) and Oklahoma (37-27).
If recent history is any precedence, then Iowa State has to be liking its chances today, because last year it upset TCU 14-7 on the road.
Iowa State turns to QB Zeb Noland, who has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 636 yards and one INT in three games. In the loss to Oklahoma he had 360 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Cyclones are allowing just 21 PPG and 3.46 YPC.
The defense posted ten tackles for a loss, four sacks, seven pass breakups, four QB hits and also forced two fumbles in the victory over Akron.
TCU QB Shawn Robinson turned it over three times and also lost a fumble in last week’s setback. Robinson finished 17 of 28 for 197 yards, one TD and two INT’s. So far he has five TD’s and six INT’s. The offense is averaging 443.8 YPG, while the defense is conceding 22.5 PPG.
I’ll point out though that TCU is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on the road.
I think the Cyclones’ defense keeps them in this one late. TCU QB Robinson is struggling with turnovers, which doesn’t bode well facing this talented Iowa State unit.
I also think Noland continues his progress as well. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m grabbing the points and expecting a “nail-biter.”
|09-29-18||Hawaii v. San Jose State +13.5||44-41||Win||100||106 h 18 m||Show|
My 8* DISCOUNT BLOWOUT is on San Jose State (7:00 EST).
San Jose State comes in desperate as it’s so far winless to this point. Hawaii has so far exceeded expectations, most recently coming off a win over Duquesne in Week 3. In its last road game though Hawaii lost by a TD to Army.
Warriors’ QB Cole McDonald had five TD’s and one INT in Hawaii’s win over the Dukes. In the loss to Army though the Warriors gave up 303 rushing yards and four TD’s.
San Jose State has been downright terrible, especially on the defensive side in conceding an average of 525.3 yards per game. Offensively it’s been decent. Last week QB Josh Love had 237 yards, one TD and two INT’s in the loss to Oregon.
The Spartans will look to take advantage of a complacent Hawaii team, as note that the Warriors are a poor 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after passing for more then 450 total yards in its previous game and only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against a team with a losing record at home.
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to end a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points.
|09-29-18||Utah v. Washington State +1||24-28||Win||100||105 h 19 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State 8* (6:00 EST).
Utah played Washington two weeks ago and lost 21-7. It comes in off its bye and I think it’ll stumble here as well. Prior to the setback to the Huskies, the Utes managed just 17 points on the road against NIU.
Utah turned the ball over three times in the loss to Washington. QB Tyler Huntley is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt with a 4/2 TD/INT.
And that doesn’t bode well facing a Cougars defense which is allowing less than 160 yards passing per game so far this season.
WSU QB Gardner Minshew already has 1,547 yards, 11 TD’s and just three INT’s over four games. The Cougars come in out gaining opposing teams by an average of 222.5 YPG.
Note as well that WSU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven at home, while Utah is interestingly just 5-13 ATS in it last 18 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in its previous contest.
Huntley looks horrible this year and I think he’ll struggle to keep up to this high-flying Mike Leach offense. Play on Washington State.
|09-29-18||Nevada +7 v. Air Force||28-25||Win||100||103 h 19 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Nevada 8* (4:00 EST).
Nevada enters off a 66-43 road loss to Toledo, while Air Force most recently feel 42-32 at Utah State.
Note that this is a revenge game for Nevada after it fell 45-42 at home to Air Force last year.
The Wolfpack is averaging 40.8 PPG and it’s conceding 39.5. To a Taua was a bright spot in the loss to the Rockets last week, posting 170 rushing yards and three TD’s.
Air Force is averaging 32.3 PPG and it’s allowing 25. QB Isaiah Sanders has already rushed the ball 44 times in two games. Last week the Falcons’ defense allowed 489 yards to Utah State.
I’ll point out as well that Air Force is just 8-24 ATS in its last 32 following a SU loss, while Nevada is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records.
The Wolfpack passing game ranks 28th in the country, which doesn’t bode well for this struggling Falcons’ secondary.
Grab the points.
|09-29-18||Army v. Buffalo -8||42-13||Loss||-115||99 h 20 m||Show|
My 9* Eye Opener is on Buffalo (12:00 EST).
I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish, as I don’t think Army will be able to keep up with Buffalo’s high-flying offense.
Army comes in dejected off a 28-21 setback in Oklahoma, while the Bulls come in off a confidence building 42-13 smash job on the road over Rutgers.
Note that this is a revenge game as well for Buffalo after it fell 21-17 to the Black Knights last year.
Army came up short in OT last week. The option went for 339 yards on 78 carries. QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr had just 40 yards and two INT’s, but he had 125 yards rushing and two TD’s on the ground. The defense was decent, allowing 335 yards to the Sooners.
Army has averaged 25.2 PPG and it’s conceded 24.2 so far this season.
Buffalo has averaged 40.2 PPG and it’s conceded just 20. The Bulls had 445 yards of offense last week, including 182 on the ground. Jaret Patterson had 104 yards with two TD’s. QB Tyree Jackson had 263 yards and three TD’s last week and overall the passing game is ranked 44th in the nation.
I’ll point out as well that Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight at home, while Army is a poor 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS victory.
I think Army has a letdown here after last week’s near upset. Look for Buffalo to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover.
Lay the points.
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Push||0||79 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST).
Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6.
Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2.
Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game.
Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here.
The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes.
There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.)
Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult.
LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season.
The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times.
Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Grab the points, play on the Vikes.
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs||Top||30-27||Win||100||36 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going.
Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here.
And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3.
The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2.
Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs.
Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance.
The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less.
Play on the Steelers.
|09-23-18||Patriots v. Lions +7||Top||10-26||Win||100||151 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST).
An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week.
And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend.
Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension.
New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback.
So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet.
Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers.
Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season.
I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record.
Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously.
As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit.
|09-23-18||Bengals +3 v. Panthers||21-31||Loss||-108||144 h 52 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).
Cincinnati comes in off a confidence building 34-23 home win over Baltimore last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Carolina comes home off a deflating 31-24 road loss in Atlanta.
Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 265 passing yards with four TD’s. Dalton so far has 508 yards and a 6/1 TD/INT ratio. RB Joe Mixon has been lost to injury, meaning that veteran RB Giovani Bernard is “the next man up.” AJ Green had a monster game last week and so far the offense has posted 34 points in each of its first two victories.
The Bengals’ rush defense is ranked fourth in the league after two weeks, as Geno Atkins already has three sacks. Overall Cincinnati has given up an average of 23 PPG early.
Cam Newton had 335 passing yards with three TD’s for the Pantehrs last week and so far he has a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Newton has plenty of weapons to utilize, but TE Greg Olsen remains out with injury.
Carolina has relied on its run game early, which doesn’t bode well facing the Bengals’ tough run unit. So far Carolina has averaged 20 PPG and conceded 19.5.
I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite.
I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points.
|09-23-18||Giants v. Texans OVER 41||Top||27-22||Win||100||144 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Giants/Texans (1:00 EST).
I’m expecting these two under-achieving and desperate/hungry NFL teams to open up the playbook and put some points on the board this afternoon.
New York enters off a 20-10 road loss to Dallas, while Houston lost 20-17 at Tennessee.
The Giants are desperate here, as it’s virtually impossible to even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards last week, but he was sacked six times. New York has to open up the playbook today, it does not have the luxury of sitting back and hoping that things will start to click (averaging just 14 PPG over the first two, ranked 30th overall.)
The New York defense has been a bright spot, but the unit faces an equally as hungry 0-2 Texans team today that’s out to make a statement in front of the home town crowd.
QB DeShaun Watson had 310 passing yards in last weeks setback, with two TD’s and an INT. The Texans have also looked decent defensively in the early going, conceding 23.5 PPG.
Admittedly these are two teams which do not play to many “overs,” but the overall “situation” that each finds itself in coming into this one points to more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a ground-and-pound “chess match” in my opinion. This number is a little low, play the over.
|09-23-18||Raiders +3 v. Dolphins||20-28||Loss||-100||144 h 51 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST).
I don’t like either of these teams particularly, but I think the Dolphins are getting the job done right now with smoke and mirrors and I look for the hungry visiting side to keep it close.
Oakland comes in off a tough 20-19 setback to Denver on the road, while Miami comes home contented off its 20-12 road win over the hapless Jets.
The Raiders beat the Fish 27-24 in Hard Rock Stadium last year and I think a similarly hard fought battle is in the cards here as well.
Oakland was blown out by the Rams in Week 1, but it looked a lot better in Week 2, despite the losing effort. It’s all or nothing though for the Raiders in Week 3, as virtually no team can even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3.
Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 298 yards and a TD, but it wasn’t quite enough last week.
But I do think it will be enough this week against a complacent 2-0 Miami team. This sets up as a classic “trap” game early in the season for the Dolphins and I think they’re going to fall right in.
Note that Miami is a terrible 16-45-3 ATS in its last 64 home games against teams with losing road records, while Oakland is a solid 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss.
The Dolphins have struggled against the pass this year, so the door is open for Carr to shine and deliver the goods in this crucial situation. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright win obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.
Play on the Raiders.
|09-23-18||Packers v. Redskins +3||17-31||Win||100||144 h 50 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST).
Green Bay comes in off a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Minnesota at home and now has to contend with a desperate Redskins team which enters off a 21-9 home loss to Indianapolis.
Washington is ranked tops in the league against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for injured QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been superb in the early going, but one has to question the veterans health early, as he wore a brace in the match-up with the Vikes last weekend. Overall the Packers are averaging 26.5 PPG and allowing 26.
The Redskins are averaging 16.5 PPG and they’re allowing 13.0. Alex Smith had 292 yards through the air last week in a losing cause, but he now gets to face a Packers’ secondary which allowed Minnesota to throw for over 400 yards.
Washington’s numbers are skewed. While averaging only 16.5 PPG, note that they’re still ranked 12th in total offense, including 14th in passing and 8th in rushing.
The numbers don’t add up and I think we’ll see a massive correction here for the under-achieving Redskins.
With the Bills at home next week, look for Rodgers and company to fold up their tents early in the Nation’s capital on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points.
|09-22-18||Wisconsin v. Iowa +3.5||28-17||Loss||-110||127 h 40 m||Show|
My 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT is on Iowa (8:30 EST).
Wisconsin comes in off a stunning loss to BYU and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well.
The Badgers fell 12 spots in the AP Top 25 after a 24-21 upset loss to BYU at home last weekend.
Johnathan Taylor was a standout with 117 rushing yards, but overall the team went just 4 of 13 on third down. QB Alex Hornibrook had 190 passing yards, but he also had a costly INT which the Cougars turned into a TD.
Iowa comes in confident sitting at 3-0 after hammering Northern Iowa 38-14 last Saturday. The Hawkeyes gave up the two TD’s in the final ten minutes of garbage time as well.
QB Nate Stanley was 23 of 28 for 302 yards and two scores, while Mekhi Sargen had two TD’s while rushing for 72 on the ground. Overall Iowa would finish with 545 yards of offense.
I’ll point out as well that Wisconsin is interestingly just 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game, while Iowa is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory.
This is a big time revenge game for the Hawkeyes as well, who have lost five of the last six in the series, including the last three at home by a combined 11 points.
Iowa catches Wisconsin at the most opportune of times. Grab the points.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +2.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-110||126 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Oregon (8:00 EST).
Stanford comes to the Pacific Northwest off a 30-10 home win over UC Davis, while Oregon comes in off a tougher than expected 35-22 home victory over San Jose State.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Ducks after they were smoked 49-7 by the Cardinal last year.
Stanford QB KJ Costello had two TD’s but also two INT’s last week. So far he has 729 passing yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinal have looked very strong defensively so far, allowing an average of just 7.7 points over the first three games.
However, there’s no question that Stanford faces its stiffest test yet.
Oregon is also 3-0. So far the Ducks have scored an average of 52 PPG, good for eighth in the country. The defense has been the weak point, but it’s still been pretty good, allowing an average of 20 PPG over the first three.
Stanford features an elite defense, but I think that unit will be on its heels all afternoon long. The Ducks come in with a chip on their shoulder and I look for their combination of high-flying offensive firepower and above average defensive play to be just too much for satisfied Stanford to keep up to down the stretch.
Play on Oregon.
|09-22-18||Western Kentucky +3 v. Ball State||28-20||Win||100||121 h 21 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Western Kentucky (3:00 EST).
Western Kentucky will be desperate to get off the schneid today after starting the season with losses to Wisconsin, Maine and Louisville.
Ball State is the perfect opponent to get untracked against as it comes in struggling as well with consecutive setbacks to Notre Dame and Indiana.
WKU looked a lot better against the Cardinals last week though and I think it can carry that all around momentum over into this one. QB Davis Shanley threw for 240 yards and a TD in a losing cause last week, and he also ran in for a score as well after coming in off the bench. He’s the “X factor” in this play for me and I look for him to be a big time difference maker this afternoon.
After an “oh-so-close” 24-16 setback at Notre Dame on September 8th, the Cardinals came back down to Earth in a 38-10 loss at Indiana last Saturday.
QB Riley Neal was 12 of 24 for 115 yards and overall the Cardinals committed eight penalties for 75 yards.
I’ll point out that WKU is 3-0 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 in the same position.
While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in the end. Play on WKU.
|09-22-18||Boston College -6.5 v. Purdue||Top||13-30||Loss||-110||118 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (12:00 EST).
I had a big play on Purdue last week (my 35-Club Play signature release), but this weekend I’m going against the winless Boilermakers.
Purdue has lost its three games by a combined eight points. I have a hard time seeing the Boilermakers keeping up to the Eagles though, who have averaged 52.7 PPG in the early going. The BC defense has been sharp as well, holding the opposition to just 340.7 yards per game average.
Boston College’ QB Anthony Brown has 626 yards, nine TD’s and zero INT’s so far. WR Kobay White has 163 yards receiving and RB AJ Dillon has 432 rushing yards and five TD’s. Dillon had 185 yards on 33 carries against Wake Forest.
Purdue is scoring an average of 27.7 PPG. QB David Blough was 39 of 55 for 572 yards, three TD’s and an INT in last week’s tight setback.
Note though that the Boilermakers are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games against teams with a winning road record, while BC is 7-1-1 ATS in its last eight nine after a SU victory.
I love BC to kick Purdue while it’s down. Lay the points.
|09-22-18||Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +8||56-27||Loss||-106||118 h 12 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wake Forest (12:00 EST).
Notre Dame has beaten Michigan, Ball State and Vanderbilt and each game has been close (24-17, 24-6 and 22-17.) Wake Forest started the year 2-0, but it comes in hungry to return to form off a loss to Boston College last Saturday.
Notre Dame beat Vandy despite getting out-gained 420 yards to 380 last week.
Wake Forest has been no “push over” early, scoring 23, 51 and 34 points so far, most recently coming out on the short-end of last week’s 41-34 shootout loss to BC.
The Demon Deacons though posted 298 yards on the ground, including 117 from Matt Colburn. QB Sam Hartman already has 834 yards and six TD’s (although he also has five picks.) Overall the offensive line has given up just five total sacks this year as well.
Additionally I’ll point out that Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS in its last ten against Independents and 4-1 ATS its last five at home against teams with winning road records, while Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a SU victory.
I can’t see the Fighting Irish’ offense pulling away from the talented Demon Deacons. Grab the points.
|09-21-18||Washington State +3.5 v. USC||Top||36-39||Win||100||106 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK is on Washington State (10:30 EST).
Washington State comes into this Friday night contest on top form, still unbeaten after destroying Easter Washington 59-24 at home Saturday.
USC comes in deflated after losing its second straight, most recently a listless 37-14 setback on the road in Texas.
The Cougars will be feeling confident here as well, because when these teams played last year on September 29th, it was WSU which left with the 30-27 home win.
So far Washington State is second in the nation in passing with 421 yards per game. Overall the team is averaging 43.7 PPG and conceding just 14.3. QB Gardnew Minshew already had 1,203 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s. He also has 30 rushing yards another score on the ground. James Williams has 137 yards on the ground and four TD’s.
The Trojans are averaging just 274 yards per game and just 20 PPG scoring average, which is ranked 114th. The defense hasn’t been great either, conceding 25 PPG. QB JT Daniels has 817 yards, one TD and three INT’s.
I’ll point out that the Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.
I have a hard time seeing USC slowing down the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Washington State has proven to be extremely tough defensively in the early going as well. Grab the point, play on the Cougars.
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns -3||Top||17-21||Win||100||80 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST).
New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami.
Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2.
Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue.
The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s.
Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well.
I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest.
I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points.
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||79 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (7:30 EST).
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the table is set for a a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in primed for a letdown after its first win of the season, a massive 35-14 upset on the road over Maryland.
Note that this is a revenge game for Tulsa after the Owls took the latest match-up 43-22 on November 25th, 2017.
Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and conceding 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards with four TD’s and three INT’s on the year.
Temple is averaging 27 PPG and it’s conceding 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s so far, while Anthony Russo has 252 yards and a TD on the season.
I’ll point out though that Tulsa is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while Temple is already 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite.
I think Temple has a classic letdown here after its big upset on the road. Well, enough of one anyways to let the Golden Hurricane to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the sizeable spread that they’ve been afforded.
Grab the points.
|09-17-18||Seahawks v. Bears OVER 43||17-24||Loss||-105||27 h 53 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the over Hawks/Bears (8:15 EST).
Neither team can sit back and hope the other one makes the first mistake. Neither can afford that luxury as each comes in desperate after starting the season 0-1.
The Seahawks are going to have to open up the playbook today after losing WR Doug Baldwin to injury in last week’s 27-24 setback at Denver. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards on seven carries, while TE Will Dissly had three catches for 105 yards and a TD.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a decent game with 298 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s.
The Bears couldn’t hold on in Green Bay in Week 1, falling 24-23 in the end (after having a 24-6 halftime lead.)
Chicago won’t be making that same mistake twice though as I expect the Bears’ offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. QB Mitchell Trubisky had 171 yards, while also running for 32 yards and a TD.
The Bears looked great defensively in the first half (when QB Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with injury), but the unit didn’t look especially impressive in the second and in the eventual collapse.
I’ll point out as well that the Seahawks have seen the total go over the number in on their last two Monday Night Football games, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of their last eight following a divisional contest.
This one has all the makings of a wide-open shootout. Play the over.
|09-16-18||Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5||Top||13-20||Win||100||131 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Giants/Cowboys (8:20 EST).
The Giants lost 20-15 at home to the Jaguars in Week 1, while the Cowboys fell 16-8 at Carolina.
These two division rivals come into Week 2 desperate for a victory, as 90% of teams which have started 0-2 in the NFL over the last 30 years have failed to make the playoffs.
Giants’ rookie RB Saquon Barkley had 106 yards and a TD last week. QB Eli Manning though was ineffective, going for 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT.
As mediocre as the New York offense looked though, was as decent as the defense performed, limiting the Jags to just 305 total yards of offense. Keep your eyes on Janoris Jenkins, who led the team in tackles and had an INT as well.
Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott was 19 of 29 for 17 yards, while also losing a fumble in Week 1. In all Prescott was sacked six times. Note that dating back to last year Prescott has thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. RB Ezekiel Elliot can’t do it by himself, as the Dallas offense has now turned completely one-dimensional.
Note that the Giants have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 23 as an underdog, while the Cowboys have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 20 as the favorite. This number is a little bit high, play the under.
|09-16-18||Patriots v. Jaguars OVER 45||Top||20-31||Win||100||127 h 42 m||Show|
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Pats/Jags (4:25 EST).
Both teams come in off victories and each of those contests went “under” the number.
Jacksonville has one of the most talented defenses in the league and New England’s unit isn’t far behind.
All of that said though, I think that the visitors are going to push the pace of this one from the outset in an attempt to get the home side out of its comfort zone and in the end, I look for this total to sneak above this fairly low number once it’s all said and done.
Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 277 yards and three TD’s last week. The defense looked sharp at home, but it’ll have a more difficult time this week I think in trying to slow down the combination of Leonard Fournette (or TJ Yeldon if Fournette can’t go. Yeldon had 69 yards last week), and Blake Bortles. Bortles had 176 yards, a TD and an INT in his team’s 20-15 road win over the Giants.
I’ll point out as well that despite being considered one of the best defensive clubs in the league, the Jags have seen the total go over the number in three of their last four as a home dog of three points or less and in nine of their last 15 in front of the home town crowd overall.
This is a big time revenge game for the Jags. They’ve lost 11 of 12 in the all time series, including a 24-20 setback in the AFC title game in January. The Jags need to take the fight to the Pats today.
This one has the feel of a “shootout” to me. Play the over.
|09-16-18||Colts +6 v. Redskins||21-9||Win||100||123 h 29 m||Show|
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can.
The Colts come in off a 34-23 home loss to Cincinnati and they are the “hungrier” side here, as Washington returns home complacent after its 24-6 road win against Arizona.
Indianapolis looked good for three quarters last week, but in the fourth it would give up 14 points. QB Andrew Luck looked decent though, going for 319 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall the Colts looked good offensively against a solid defensive club.
Indianapolis was also decent defensively, as one of the Bengals’ TD came via the defense.
Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD’s for the Redskins last week. Adrian Peterson had 96 yards rushing and overall the unit posted 182 on the ground. Washington looked sharp defensively in holding Arizona to just 213 total yards, but the unit clearly faces a much stiffer test against Luck, Ty Hilton and company.
I think the Colts’ more competent passing game brings Washington’s defensive numbers back down to Earth. Indianapolis played well enough to win last week, but shot itself in the foot with costly turnovers and penalties.
Look for a less rusty Luck to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Play on the Colts.
|09-16-18||Panthers v. Falcons -5||24-31||Win||100||123 h 28 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
Divisional match-ups are always the most important in the NFL and for the most part, it almost always means more to the home side.
And there’s no question that that’s the case today, as Carolina comes in at 1-0, while Atlanta is 0-1.
The Panthers came out on top of the Cowboys 16-8 last week, forcing Dallas to go 0 for 5 on third down in the first half.
The Dallas offense though is still trying to find itself, while the Atlanta offense is a well-oiled machine. And that machine mis-fired in the Week 1 loss at Philadelphia, as there were three trips inside the red zone which resulted in zero points. QB Matt Ryan was 21 of 43 for 251 yards, no TD’s and one INT.
I’ll point out though that Carolina is just 2-4 ATS in its last six “dome” games and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division, while Atlanta is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 dome games and 7-5 ATS in its last 12 against divisional foes.
I look for the “hungrier” team to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points.
|09-15-18||Missouri v. Purdue +8||Top||40-37||Win||100||122 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on Purdue (7:30 EST).
Missouri comes in a tiny bit complacent after two straight victories, most recently throttling Wyoming 40-13 at home last Saturday.
Purdue though comes in desperate as it’s dropped two in a row, including a shocking 20-19 setback at home to Eastern Michigan as a 16 point favorite last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances tonight as when these teams met last year, it was Purdue that came away with the 35-3 road victory on September 16th, 2017.
Missouri is so far averaging 396 YPG, averaging 45.5 PPG. QB Drew Lock has 687 yards with eight TD’s so far this season. Overall the Tigers are allowing just 13.5 PPG early, but clearly the unit faces a stiff test today against the hungry and determined Boilermakers.
So far Purdue is averaging 23 PPG, as David Blough has 122 yards passing and 36 rushing, while co-QB Elijah Sindelz has 283 yards, two TD’s and three picks. The defense has been a bright spot though, allowing only 25.5 PPG.
This is a great situational play in my opinion. I think Missouri comes in complacent here in this non-conference matchup as it gets caught looking ahead to its conference schedule.
Purdue does not have that luxury at all though obviously and I think the intensity in which the Boilermakers play with today will turn out to be the difference. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in a much closer than expected battle.
|09-15-18||South Florida -9.5 v. Illinois||25-19||Loss||-109||118 h 16 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on South Florida (3:30 EST).
Lovie Smith and the South Florida Bulls get ready to invade Illinois at Solider Field on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, the visitors are going to run away with this one.
USF comes in off a confidence building upset over Georgia Tech last week, led by QB Blake Barnett, who had 207 yards and two TD’s through the air, while another 86 rushing yards and two more major scores on the ground. Tyre McCants had ten catches for 104 yards.
The Illini come in off a victory over Western Illinois last weekend, but the victory came at a cost, as QB AJ Bush suffered a leg injury in the first quarter and did not return. MJ Rivers looked decent in his place going 9 of 16 for 105 yards and two TD’s. However note that the team also lost WR Edwin Carter in the second half.
I’ll point out as well that USF is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 40 or more points in its previous game and 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while Illinois is just 9-23 ATS in its last 32 following an ATS victory.
The Illini lost their starting QB and now have to deal with one of the most dangerous two way teams in the country. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points with confidence.
|09-15-18||LSU +9.5 v. Auburn||22-21||Win||100||118 h 5 m||Show|
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on LSU (3:30 EST).
It’s an important early season SEC West match-up on Saturday and in my opinion, we’re going to witness a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. And if recent history is any precedence, then LSU has to be loving it chances today because when these teams played last year it scored the 27-23 home victory.
LSU comes in off a 31-0 home win over SE Louisiana. QB Joe Burrows had two TD passes in the victory RB Nick Brossette has 262 yards rushing over two games, which includes 125 against a touch Miami Hurricanes defense. The LSU defense has been a difference maker early and I believe it will be again here, holding the Hurricanes to just 17 points in Week 1.
Auburn enters off a 63-9 win over Alabama State last weekend. QB Jarrett Stidham had 113 yards and he so far has a 2/0 TD:INT. The run game posted a whopping 429 total yards, but clearly the unit faces its stiffest test of the young season.
Auburn was challenged by a top notch defense in Week 1 vs. Washington and it managed only 21 points in that one. The Tigers did hold the Huskies to just 16 points though in the victory.
I’ll point out as well that Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while LSU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games against a team with a winning home record.
I think this is going to be nail-biter, so I’m going to grab all these points.
Play on LSU.
|09-15-18||Hawaii v. Army -6||21-28||Win||100||115 h 32 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Army (12:00 EST).
Hawaii comes in complacent here in my opinion after starting the year 3-0 with victories over Rice, Navy and Colorado State.
Army lost to Duke in its opener, but then the Black Knights bounced back with a win over Liberty last week.
Hawaii QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s in the 43-29 win over Rice last week. Fred Holly III had 100 yards and two scores on the ground.
Army rushed for 449 yards last week behind its triple-option attack, with Darnell Woolfolk leading the way with 96 yards and two TD’s. The Black Knights have won eight in a row at home and I’m expecting that trend to continue here. Nine different players had rushing attempts for Army last week and six of those had at least 32 yards, including five with over 60.
I’ll point out as well that despite it’s early success, Hawaii is still a horrible 1-6 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the same points range.
I think Hawaii finally stumbles here after it’s unrealistic/unsustainable start. Lay the points.
|09-13-18||Ravens -107 v. Bengals||23-34||Loss||-107||79 h 4 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).
Baltimore opened the season with a 47-3 destruction of Buffalo and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.
The Bengals also won sizeably, but it wasn’t quite as easy, needing a big second half to pull away for a 34-23 finish over Indianapolis on the road.
The Ravens shutout Cincinnati 20-0 last year and they come in rested as most of their starters, including QB Joe Flacco, were able to rest after going up huge on the Bills. Flacco was 24 of 34 for 236 yards and three TD’s in under three quarters of play. The Ravens defense also looked sharp, holding Buffalo to just 70 passing yards and 83 rushing yards.
Andy Dalton was 21 of 28 for 243 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Joe Mixon had 94 yards and a TD on 17 carries. AJ Green had six catches for 92 yards, but the Bengals struggled agains the pass by allowing 305 yards.
I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 against the AFC North and 5-1 ATS in its last six Week 2 contests.
Beating the “new look” Colts and Andrew luck in his first game back is one thing, but knocking off this fresh Bengals side which comes into the season firing on all cylinders is quite another.
I’m expecting a rout and big defensive performance from the visitors. Play on the Ravens.
|09-13-18||Old Dominion v. Charlotte +2||Top||25-28||Win||100||24 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Charlotte (6:00 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end.
ODU is so far winless on the year with setback to Liberty and FIU, while Charlotte opened with a victory over Fordham, before then dropping its second game against a surging Appalachian State team.
The Monarchs have looked horrible. Last week QB Steven Williams and Blake LaRussa combined to go 13 of 19 for 237 yards and two TD’s in the first half, but then went just 6 of 18 for 66 yards the rest of the way.
Charlotte also uses two QB’s. This week we can expect to see a lot of Hasaan Klugh, who was mainly featured as a runner last weekend.
The 49ers got some great individual defensive play in the blowout setback to the Mountaineers, as safety Ben Deluca had 11 total tackles.
I’ll point out as well that Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference tilts, while ODU is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests and a dismal 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 following a SU loss.
The Monarchs are banged up and their offense is stuck in neutral. Meanwhile the 49ers have looked a lot better through all three phases. This one has ATS blowout written all over it. Play on Charlotte.
|09-13-18||Boston College -5.5 v. Wake Forest||Top||41-34||Win||100||76 h 14 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boston College (7:30 EST).
An important early ACC clash favors the visitors on Thursday night in my opinion.
BC enters off a 62-14 smoke-job over Holy Cross last weekend, while Wake demolished Towson 51-20. Note that this is a revenge game for the Eagles after Wake recorded a 34-10 victory at Boston College last year.
Eagles’ QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter last week and he threw four TD’s. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. So far BC has looked fantastic on both sides of the ball over its first two games.
Wake Forest has won its first two games as well. QB Sam Hartman had 242 passing yards and two TD’s last week, while the defense held Towson to just 65 rushing yards.
However note that the Demon Deacons have struggled against the pass early, as evidenced by the 345 passing yards they gave up last week.
I’ll pint out as well that Wake Forest is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards, while BC is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven conference tilts.
The Eagles have the superior pass defense, a unit which finished 22nd in the country last year. I think that’ll be the difference tonight. Lay the points, play on Boston College.
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +3||Top||33-13||Loss||-100||1046 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST).
Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas.
|09-09-18||Bears +9 v. Packers||Top||23-24||Win||100||178 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).
This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes.
Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year.
QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel.
On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after.
Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games.
Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late.
No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points.
|09-09-18||Seahawks +3 v. Broncos||24-27||Push||0||174 h 42 m||Show|
My 8* BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).
Note that this is a rematch of the 2014 Super Bowl.
The Seahawks were long seen as strictly a “home team,” but last year they went 5-3 on the road and 9-7 overall.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson is a difference maker though and I think he’ll keep his team competitive in this one as well. Last year Wilson had 3,983 passing yards and 34 TD’s. He also led the Hawks rushing with 586 yards and three more scores.
The Hawks’ offense got better by drafting Rashaad Penny from San Diego State. The defense finished 11the last year and it has many new faces this season. Still. the Hawks are expected to be competitive on that side of the ball as well.
The Broncos’ defense was poor last year too though, allowing 290 yards per game. Note that Denver was just 4-4 at home last year and 5-11 overall. The Broncos were also just 1-3 against NFC teams.
Is Case Keenum the answer for Denver under center? Last year he had 3,547 yards and a 22/7 TD/INT for the Vikes, but one has to wonder how much gas is left in the tank, especially in the the thin air of Mile High.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home.
While the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I’m going to grab the points.
|09-09-18||Steelers -5.5 v. Browns||21-21||Loss||-105||172 h 42 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).
The Cleveland Browns may have been the most talked about team in the NFL over the offseason.
When a team finishes 0-16 there's nowhere to go but up. However, realistically speaking, it will be quite an accomplishment for the 2018 Cleveland Browns to avoid a last place finish in the AFC North for an EIGHTH consecutive season. Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson is 1-31 SU in his two seasons with Cleveland, going 7-24-1 ATS (22.6%). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin doesn't have a losing season on his head coaching resume in his 11 years.
Bottom line is this. The last time the Browns won their Week 1 opener was back in 2004 when they beat the Ravens 20-3. The Browns welcome Pittsburgh to Cleveland on Sep 9 on a 13-game Week 1 losing streak, going just 3-10 ATS (average loss being 11.6 PPG) since that 2004 Week 1 win. The fact that the Steelers are 23-3 SU vs the Browns the last 13 seasons means I will not be too concerned about laying less than a TD, even on the road.
NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is an 8* on the Pit Steelers.
|09-09-18||49ers +7 v. Vikings||16-24||Loss||-140||170 h 20 m||Show|
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco 49ers (1:00 EST).
While I’m not predicting an outright upset, I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers did in fact win this one in Week 1.
San Francisco was just 6-10 last year, but it enters with high hopes with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Over six games he’d post 1,560 yards and a 7/5 TD/INT.
Garoppolo will be keying on Marquise Goodwin, who finished with 962 receiving yards last season. The 49ers averaged 20.7 points last year, but they’e expected to take a big step forward with Pierre Garcon and Trent Taylor as other offensive standouts.
The defense allowed 23.9 points and it should only be better with the addition of CB Richard Sherman.
The Vikes signed Kirk Cousins in the off-season and he’ll have plenty of targets to utilize, including Stefan Diggs, Adam Theielen and Kyle Rudolph.
The Vikes defense allowed just 15.8 PPG last year and the unit will be a strength again this season.
San Francisco has nothing to lose though and it won’t simply roll over. The Vikes’ were a dominant team in 2017, but I think that regression could come in 2018. Even with Cousins.
I’m banking on this one being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points. Play on San Francisco.
|09-09-18||Bengals v. Colts OVER 46.5||34-23||Win||100||170 h 19 m||Show|
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM on the over Bengals/Colts (1:00 EST).
These are two teams loaded with people who have something to prove this year. Cincinnati was 7-9 last season, while Indianapolis was 4-12. When these teams played in October, the Bengals came out on top 24-23.
Andy Dalton is back under center for Cincinnati, last season he had 3,320 passing yards along with a 25/12 TD/INT. Joe Mixon is the No. 1 RB this year after posting 626 rushing yards in 14 games. The Bengals were decent defensively, allowing just 21.8 PPG and the addition of new defensive co-ordinator Teryl Austin should only make the unit better in 2018 (note though that the Bengals were 30th against the run the last year.)
Andrew Luck is back under center for the Colts this season as well. In 2016 he had 4,240 passing yards and a 31/13 TD/INT.
Last year Indianapolis was poor defensively, allowing 25.3 PPG. The unit made a couple moves in the off-season, including drafting LB Darius Leonard in the second round, but it’s expected to once again be a weakness for the team this season as well.
With two veteran QB’s looking to regain their once dominant form, all signs point to this one flying over sooner, rather than later.
Play the over.
|09-09-18||Titans v. Dolphins OVER 45||Top||20-27||Win||100||170 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is the over Titans/Dolphins (1:00 EST).
Last year Tennessee finished 9-7, beating KC 22-21 in the Wild Card round before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional.
Miami was 6-10 last year and missed the playoffs. These teams played last season and the Titans come into this one playing with revenge after falling 16-10 in Miami last October 8th. While that total stayed well below the number in that one and while neither side is known for its explosive offense, I still feel this number is a little low as I expect each to open up the playbook.
Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards, 13 TD’s and 15 INT’s last year. He also had 312 rushing yards and five more major scores on the ground. Derrick Henry had 744 rushing yards and five TD’s last year and he’ll be splitting time with Dion Lewis, who came over from the Pats.
Miami will be looking to make it to the playoffs this season as well. Ryan Tannehill suffered a torn ACL during the preseason last August and the Fish would never recover after that. Tannehill is back this season though and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Frank Gore, who had 961 yards for the Colts last year.
The biggest question now for the Dolphins remains on the defensive side of the ball.
The question marks for each are indeed on the defensive side of the ball, which leaves the door open for these offenses to shine. This number is low, play the over.
|09-08-18||Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -1||Top||21-0||Loss||-105||145 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
Cincinnati is 1-0 and Miami Ohio is 0-1. I look for the home side to lay everything on the line today though as it looks to get off the schneid.
The Bearcats come in off a highly satisfying 26-17 road win over UCLA as two TD underdog. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? The Bearcats had 305 yards of offense and they also conceded about 305 yards on defense. Desmon Ridder was just 13 of 24 for 100 yards.
The Redhawks were small dogs when their game kicked off against visiting Marshall in Week 1 and Miami Ohio would wind up falling 35-28. The Redhawks though had 445 yards of offense and I expect the unit to build off that performance.
QB Gus Ragland was 25 of 46 for 357 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Jack Sorenson was key in the passing game with three catches for 106 yards and a major score.
It’s difficult to win on the road and even more difficult to cover in back to back weekends away from friendly confines. The Bearcats are improved from last year’s poor team, but not that much. Look for the “hungrier” home side to find a way to get the job done.
Play on Miami Ohio.
|09-08-18||Fresno State +2.5 v. Minnesota||14-21||Loss||-110||145 h 44 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Fresno State (7:30 EST).
Fresno State annihilated Idaho 79-13 last Saturday and while clearly the Bulldogs will face a much stiffer test this time around, I still think that the visitors high-octane offense will prove to be too much for the Gophers to keep up to down the stretch.
Fresno State posted 486 yards total offense last week, including 239 and seven rushing TD’s on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion had 207 yards passing, while Romelio Harris had 47 yards on four carries. The Bulldogs would go on to allow 307 yards, including 205 through the air.
Minnesota enters off a 48-10 win over New Mexico State last Thursday.
The Golden Gophers went up 35-10 at half time and then cruised to relatively easy victory on the second. The Gophers allowed just 38 rushing yards, but note they’d get torched through the air by allowing 271 passing yards. QB Zack Annexstad was just 16 of 33 for 222 yards and two TD’s.
I think Minnesota is going to be in for a shock today though facing McMaryion and company. The Fresno State dual threat offense proves to be too much for Minnesota to keep up with down the stretch. Grab the points.
|09-08-18||Memphis v. Navy +3.5||21-22||Win||100||141 h 40 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Navy (3:30 EST).
Memphis comes in complacent here in my opinion after its 66-14 home win over Mercer in its season Opener. Navy on the other hand comes in desperate after falling 59-41 in Hawaii last weekend.
Also note that this is a revenge game for the Midshipmen after they lost 30-27 to the Tigers last year.
Memphis QB Brady White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and five TD’s last week. RB Darrell Henderson went for 76 yards, while Damonte Coxie had four catches for 79 yards. Last year the offense was a force, averaging 45.5 PPG, but the unit will take a step back with a few new faces at key positions this season.
The Tigers were horrible defensively though in 2017 by conceding 32.5 PPG and I think they’ll have their hands full today with this revenge minded and winless Navy side.
Navy utilizes three different QB’s, as Malcom Perry, Garret Lewis and Zach Abey will once again all see time under center today. Last year Perry had 1,182 rushing yards and he had 108 in the loss to Hawaii. The Midshipmen averaged 30.5 PPG last season and while they only allowed 26.3 PPG on the defensive side, clearly the unit has some work to do after stumbling against Hawaii’s arial attack.
But Navy always plays tough at home and after the Week 1 setback, this becomes a “must win” for all intents and purposes for the Midshipmen. Last year the Tigers allowed an average of 191 rushing yards per game and last season Navy led the nation in rushing.
Grab the points, play on Navy.
|09-08-18||Colorado v. Nebraska -4.5||Top||33-28||Loss||-110||141 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM on Nebraska (3:30 EST).
Colorado is 1-0, while Nebraska opens up its 2018/19 campaign after its game was postponed last week. The Buffs enter off a 45-13 win over Colorado State, but note that they’ve lost four of their last five on the road.
Last week QB Steven Montez had 33 yards, four TD’s and an INT in the win over the Rams. The ground game looked strong as well with 258 yards, with Travon McMillan leading the charge with 103 yards and a TD. The defense looked sharp, but clearly the unit faces a much more difficult task in Week 2.
Nebraska’s Week 1 contest was postponed due to poor weather, so the Huskers come in with a ton of anticipation and energy. After losing four straight home games, you can bet the team will be looking to reverse their fortunes here. Nebraska features an experienced offensive line.
The defense was a weak point last season, but it returns many starters and it’s expected to take a big leap in the right direction this year.
Note as well that the Buffs have failed to cover in six of their last seven as a underdog of three points or more on the road. Nebraska’s advantage in the trenches turns out to be the difference though.
Lay the points, play on Nebraska.
|09-08-18||Arizona +4.5 v. Houston||18-45||Loss||-110||137 h 6 m||Show|
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Arizona (12:00 EST).
Clearly the outright win is not out of the question here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points in the end.
Arizona comes in “hungrier” here after falling 28-23 to BYU last week. The Wildcats will be focused and desperate to break a three-game road slide. QB Khalil Tate had 197 yards and a TD last week. The ground game produced 129 yards and JJ Taylor leads the way so far with 85 yards and a TD.
Houston came out on top of Rice 45-27 last week and while the Cougars have won ten of 12 at home, I think they’re going to stumble here against this hungry visiting side. Last week QB D’Eriq King had 320 yards and three TD’s. The Houston ground game had 257 yards, but the defense was pretty unremarkable considering the opponent.
As mentioned off the top, I think Arizona is the “hungrier” side in this one. I also think that Arizona has the much better QB.
These two major factors collide making the Wildcats the correct call. Grab the points.
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +21.5||Top||42-12||Loss||-110||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on SMU (8:00 EST).
I’m grabbing the points on the big hungry home dog on Friday night.
The Horned Frogs come in complacent after their 55-7 season opening win over Southern. Conversely, the Mustangs do indeed come in hungry after falling 46-23 to North Texas on the road. Note that this is a revenge game as well for SMU after it fell 56-36 on the road at TCU last year.
Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it looked pretty good against a weak Jaguars defense last week. Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s. The Horned Frogs have three strong RB’s including Darius Anderson, who had 768 rushing yards last year. Last season the Horned Frogs allowed just 19 PPG and the defense will be a strength again this year.
SMU clearly has its hands full. And recent history is not in its favor either as it comes in having lost six straight in this series.
But I’m not calling for an outright, straight-up victory here. I just think that SMU has improved enough this season to be much more competitive this time around. The Mustangs averaged 37.8 PPG last year, but they’d also concede 36.7. QB Ben Hicks had 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Last season he had 3,500 passing yards and a strong 33/12 TD/INT.
As mentioned above, the outright win is not on the table here whatsoever. I do think though that this improved SMU side can catch TCU a bit complacent this season and I look for it keep this one interesting until the third quarter.
Grab the points, play on SMU.
|09-06-18||Falcons v. Eagles OVER 46||Top||12-18||Loss||-100||272 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Falcons/Eagles (8:20 EST).
I’m expecting some offensive fireworks between these hungry teams on Opening night.
When these teams last met on January 13th in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, it was Philadelphia who came out on top of the lower-scoring 15-10 affair.
Atlanta will be out to avenge that setback and to set a tone early after a difficult 2017/18 campaign. The Falcons certainly won’t be “sitting back” and looking for the Eagles’ methodical offense to make the first mistake.
Instead the Falcons will be pushing the pace from start to finish in this one as they try to play to their strengths on offense.
Last year Matt Ryan missed Julio Jones from the 2-yard line in the closing moments of the playoff loss to the Eagles. Rayn had 4,095 passing yards, 20 TD’s and 12 INT’s last year. Note though that ATL led the league in dropped passed with 30. Despite the “down” season for everyone, the offense is loaded with talent, including Jones and Mohammed Sanu.
Atlanta was decent defensively last year as well, conceding just 19.7 PPG. Deion Jones led the team with 138 tackles and three picks.
If Carson Wentz doesn’t suit up for the Eagles, obviously Nick Foles is the next best thing. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. TE Zach Ertz and WR Nelson Agholor will be leaned upon here with Alshon Jeffery shelved with injury. Fortunately for the offense, it has arguably the best line in the league.
The defense was decent for Philadelphia last year, but the losses of DL Beau Allen and DE Vinny Curry to free agency are significant.
I think it’s worth to note that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six games in the month of September, while Philadelphia has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven “Thursday night” contests. Do either of these stats really matter? Well, it certainly doesn’t hurt.
I’m expecting a wide open “shoot-out,” play the over.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||Top||24-3||Win||100||35 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Virginia Tech (8:00 EST).
Virginia Tech was dominant on the defensive side of the ball last year, but it’s going to have to make adjustments with many new faces throughout the unit this season. The Hokies though return their starting QB and I think he’ll help his team keep this one competitive.
Last year Virginia Tech finished 9-4 in the regular season. Florida State was 7-6.
The Hokies return QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last season. Overall the offense averaged 28.2 PPG last season, but that mark is expected to go up with Jackson’s expected progression.
The defense allowed just 14.8 PPG and while many of the key pieces are gone from the unit that posted those numbers, note that safety Reggie Floyd is back after he finished third on the team with 72 tackles, while also posting three INT’s.
The Seminoles welcome back Deondre Francois as their QB, as he missed most of late year with injury. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Cam Akers to start, as he finished with 5.3 YPC average.
FSU allowed just 21.2 PPG last year and the defense should be a strength this year as well.
However, as mentioned off the top I think that Jackson is going to have his opportunities tonight.
I’ll point out as well that FSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, while VT is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
Bank on a much closer than expected battle and grab as many points as you can. Play on Virginia Tech.
|09-02-18||Miami-FL v. LSU OVER 46||Top||17-33||Win||100||32 h 50 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the over Miami/LSU (7:30 EST).
It’s No. 8 vs. No. 25 at AT& Stadium in Dallas in a beginning of season Sunday night game. Last year the ‘Canes were 10-3, while the Tigers were 9-4.
I think these two hungry teams battle tooth and nail and I look for this total to sneak above the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Last year Miami Florida averaged 29.1 PPG and it should be even better this season with the return of senior QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 passing yards.
The Hurricanes gave up just 21 points last year and the defense is poised for another big campaign in 2018/19 as well.
However LSU won’t be rolling over here and I think that the duo of Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow have enough talent under center to keep this one competitive. Note that the Tigers averaged 27.2 PPG las year and they conceded 18.9.
These teams come in off decent defensive campaigns, but I think this first game has “shootout” written all over it. Note that Miami has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten neutral field games when the total in the contest is between 45.5 and 49, while LSU has seen the total eclipse the number in six of its last ten in the same position.
This number is low, play the over.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame +2||Top||17-24||Win||100||315 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Notre Dame (7:30 EST).
Michigan comes into the 2018/19 season ranked No. 14, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 12. The Wolverines finished 8-5 last year, capped off with a disappointing 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The Irish were 10-2 last year and they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl.
Michigan went 0-3 in conference play against ranked teams last year, getting smashed 97-43 collectively. The Wolverines were sloppy too, committing 21 turnovers on the season, leaving them -4 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio.
Shea Patterson had 2,259 passing yards for the Wolverines with 17 TD’s and nine INT’s over seven games. He was injured and Brandon Peters would come in to go for 672 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 994 yards and 11 TD’s last season.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly reached the double-win plateau for a third-straight time under his reign last season. Last year the offense averaged 34.2 PPG, ranked 24th in the FBS. The offense returns nine starters, meaning it should only be better this season. The defense was the strength though and it will be again, finishing 31st in the country last year by allowing just 21.5 PPG.
As good as Patterson looked before his injury last year, the Irish still have the better, more experienced offense in this matchup. I think Notre Dame comes out firing on all cylinders and uses its superior defense/offense to come out on top of what should be an entertaining affair. Play on the Irish.
|09-01-18||SMU v. North Texas -3||23-46||Win||100||314 h 19 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on North Texas (7:30 EST).
SMU was 7-5 last year, before getting crushed by Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl, while UNT went 9-5 overall and lost to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after they fell by 22 points at SMU last year.
Sonny Dykes is now head coach for SMU. The Mustangs averaged 36.2 PPG last year, led by QB Ben Hicks who had 33 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Xavier Jones, Braeden West and Ke’Mon Freeman combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards. The defense was terrible though, allowing 38.6 PPG, and it’s going to be a weak point against this season as well.
After going 1-11 in 2015, the Mean Green went 9-5 last year, winning the Conference USA’s West Division. QB Mason Fine is among 17 returning starters. Last year UNT averaged 35.5 PPG and Fine threw at least three TD strikes in three of the last five games during the 2017 season.
I’ll point out that North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while SMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road.
North Texas is on the rise and I expect it to come out and put the foot on the gas from start to finish. And that doesn’t bode well for this questionable Mustangs’ defensive unit.
Lay the points, play on North Texas.
|09-01-18||Marshall v. Miami-OH -2.5||35-28||Loss||-113||312 h 20 m||Show|
My 8* Situational Blowout is on Miami Ohio (3:30 EST).
Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.
|09-01-18||North Carolina +8.5 v. California||17-24||Win||100||311 h 49 m||Show|
My 8* Situational Stunner is on North Carolina (4:00 EST).
Am I calling for an outright upset here? I am not.
I do think though that the Tar Heels will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
UNC turns to QB Nathan Elliot, who had 926 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s after taking over the starting job half way through last year.
Elliot is a dual threat QB (had 134 yards on the ground) and he’s expected to take a major step forward this season. Elliot’s favorite target will surely be Anthony Ratliff-Williams who had 630 receiving yards. Note that Jordan Brown and Michael Carter would combined for nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 337 receiving yards.
The Golden Bears jumped out to an early 3-0 start last year, but then a rash of injuries led to a 2-7 finish. QB Ross Bowers is back, along with RB Patrick Larid and four dynamic WR’s.
Both teams have big bounce back expectations this season and I think they’re much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
In a tight battle, grab as many points as you can.
Play on UNC.
|09-01-18||Washington +3 v. Auburn||16-21||Loss||-120||311 h 36 m||Show|
My 8* AFTERNOON ROUT is on Washington (3:30 EST).
Auburn won the SEC West last year, but Georgia won the Conference and Alabama went on to capture the National title.
Washington went to the Fiesta Bowl last season where it fell to Penn State. QB Jake Browning is back for his senior year to lead a team which went 10-2. Browning completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards, 19 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Myles Gaskin had 1,380 rushing yards and 21 TD’s. The offensive line will be a a strength as it’s a unit with has a collective 97 starts worth of experience.
Auburn returns three of four defensive line starters from last year as the Tigers ranked 11th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 PPG.
Auburn’s question marks are on offense though. QB Jarrett Stidham simply doesn’t have the same repertoire as Browning in my opinion and despite how awesome the Tigers should be on the defensive side of the ball, I think the visitors high-flying offense will prove to be just too much for them to keep up to. Grab the points, play on Washington.
|08-31-18||Colorado State v. Colorado -6.5||13-45||Win||100||293 h 57 m||Show|
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado (9:30 EST).
Colorado State is already 0-1 to open the 2018/19 campaign and I think it’ll struggle here as well.
Colorado will look to take advantage and to keep the Centennial Trophy for a fourth straight season.
The Rams looked horrible in their 43-34 home loss to Hawaii last weekend, falling behind by a whopping 30 points at one point. QB KJ Carta-Samuels had 537 yards, five TD’s and an INT in the loss. Colorado State had 653 yards of total offense, but it committed 12 costly penalties on the night.
The defense was a disaster though, allowing 418 passing yards and 617 total yards.
In 2016 Colorado had ten wins, but last year it went just 5-7. Clearly the Buffs are hoping for a much better result in 2018/19.
QB Steven Montez is back for his second season, last year he had 2,975 yards and 18 TD’s. He also rushed for 338 rushing yards and completed almost 61 percent of his passes.
RB Phillip Lindsay had 1,474 yards and 14 TD’s in 2017. The Buffs also feature three competent receivers in Kabion Ento, Juwann Winfree and Jay McIntyre, who had 28 catches for 396 yards last year.
Colorado was poor defensively last year, but new LB’s Drew Lewis and Rick Gamboa should help the unit make strides this season.
I’ll point out that Colorado is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five in this series, while Colorado State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site affairs.
I believe the stability that Colorado has at QB winds up being the difference in this one. Lay the points.
|08-31-18||Syracuse -6 v. Western Michigan||Top||55-42||Win||100||291 h 41 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Syracuse (6:00 EST).
This is the first meeting ever between the teams. Syracuse will be looking for a better result early this season after going 4-8 last year. Western Michigan was 6-6.
The Orange are expected to compete for a Bowl position this season as they have eight starters back on offense and six on defense.
Syracuse QB is senior Eric Dungey, who had 2,495 yards, 14 TD’s and nine INT’s last season. The Orange had a more difficult schedule last year, so coach Dino Baber is expecting major progression in his third-year running the show. Defensively the team was a bit of a mess, but the ACC is unforgiving. However as mentioned above, the defensive unit should also be improved with six starters returning.
Overall the Orange were ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense last year and 106th in total defense.
WMU was 6-6 last year, but it wasn’t enough to get a bowl invite. The defense was horrible as well and it returns just five starters this season. The only way the unit can go is up this year, but the defensive side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak area.
The offense returns eight starters, including QB Jon Waasink, who had 1,411 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s last season. RB Javion Franklin, who had 1,200 yards rushing last year is gone though and he really did make opposing defenses “honest.”
Last year WMU was ranked 79th in the country in scoring and 55th in total yards allowed.
It’s the ACC vs. the MAC. I think Syracuse has the better and more competent QB in this matchup. The Orange were a well-oiled offensive machine last year and I believe they’ll be too much for WMU to hang with down the stretch.
Lay the points, play on Syracuse.
|08-30-18||Northwestern v. Purdue -3.5||31-27||Loss||-102||268 h 43 m||Show|
: My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:00 EST).
These Big Ten Conference West Division foes battle on Opening night. Northwestern finished 10-3 last year and with a victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl, while Purdue went 7-6, capped off with a 38-35 victory over Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl.
Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers, as the Wildcats have won four straight in the series, including a 23-13 home victory last November.
Northwestern was 7-2 in league play last year and it finished 57th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 PPG. The defense was also solid by conceding 20.1 PPG. QB Clayton Thorson was an unimpressive 2,844 yards with 15 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season. Jeremy Larkin had 503 yards and five TD’s on the ground.
Jeff Brohm turned Purdue around last year and I think he’ll take the team a step further in 2018/19. Note that the Boilermakers had five straight losing seasons before last year’s winning one. Note as well that all five starters on the offensive line are back, which is huge, especially in the early going.
Purdue also features two fantastic QB’s and a large stable of competent RB’s. If the defensive side of the ball can figure things out, then the Boilermakers really will make some serious noise this season.
Last year Purdue put up 25.2 PPG, as Elijah Sindelar had 2,099 yards with 18 TD’s and seven INT’s. David Blough had 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Markell Jones would contribute 566 yards on the ground and a TD.
The revenge factor, combined with the dynamic QB duo of Sindelar and Blough make the home side the correct call in this Week 1 match-up. Lay the points, play on Purdue.
|08-30-18||Wake Forest v. Tulane +7||23-17||Win||100||268 h 37 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Tulane (8:00 EST).
Wake returns 15 starters this year, with nine on the offensive side of the ball. Last year The Demon Deacons here 8-5 and finished averaging 35.3 points. True freshman QB Sam Hartman has won the job at QB position though and suffice it to say, I expect the rookie to struggle in his first game.
While Wake is loaded with offensive talent, the defense remains a bit of a question mark. Just as it was last year too.
The Green Wave return nine starters on offense last year as well. Tulane averaged 27.5 points last year. The option offense took a few games to get going, but note that the Green Wave were a perfect 4-0 when putting up 250 yards or more on the ground last season. QB Jon Banks enters his senior year and as the second leading rusher from a season ago.
Ultimately I believe that Tulane has a very real shot at winning this one outright. The Green Wave’s offense is just as dynamic as Wake’s and I think it’ll give the visitors everything they can handle tonight. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Play on Tulane.
|08-25-18||Hawaii +14 v. Colorado State||Top||43-34||Win||100||660 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Hawaii (7:30 EST).
Two flawed teams go at it on opening day as the Rainbow Warriors try to keep things together around a new quarterback and the Rams are hoping for a completely rebuilt defense to figure things out until newcomers can gain enough experience to compete on a high level. The Hawaii QB figures to be strong-armed Cole McDonald, who at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds has the look of a solid QB, if not the resume. McDonald will resurrect the run-and-shoot offense that was abandoned last season, and he should have some opportunities against Colorado State, which gutted its defense (including the coaches) and is starting from scratch. But the tide goes both in and out in this one, as the Rainbow Warriors’ inexperience on offense (the O-Line and running game are starting over) could find it a challenge against even the Rams’ porous D. Hawaii has lost seven straight in this series, including a 30-point (51-21) drubbing last season on the island. With both programs struggling to gain traction, go with Hawaii to at least cover the 14 in a game that could be sloppy.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 48||Top||41-33||Loss||-102||323 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Eagles/Patriots (6:30 EST).
The 15-3 Philadelphia Eagles get ready to battle the 15-3 New England Patriots in the Super Bowl and in my opinion, all signs point to a defensive battle.
Philadelphia comes in off a 38-7 thrashing of the Vikings, while New England got the better of Jacksonville 24-20 on Championship Sunday.
As good as the Eagles looked offensively last weekend, it was their defense which once again carried the load. So far Philadelphia has given up a total of two passing TD’s and zero rushing TD’s over its two playoff games. The Eagles’ aggressive unit would force Vikes’ QB Case Keenum to throw 20 incompletions. In fact, Philadelphia has allowed just 156 total rushing yards over its last two games.
As good as Eagles’ backup QB Nick Foles looked last weekend, clearly the Super Bowl is an entirely different “animal.” Regression seems imminent in my opinion, no repeat performance on Super Sunday for Foles.
New England can put points on the board, especially in the playoffs. Note that QB Tom Brady has a 5/0 TD/INT over his two playoff games thus far.
But the Pats also looked fantastic defensively last weekend, giving up just six points to the Jags in the second half. I expect that momentum to get carried over. New England would also go on to post three sacks, while holding RB Leonard Fournette to an average of just 3.2 YPC.
I think the extra time off between games has a detrimental effect on these offenses and I expect these “under the radar” defensive units to step up and become the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a little high, play the under.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -4||41-33||Loss||-107||145 h 50 m||Show|
My 8* Super Bowl Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 6:30 ET.
Nearly two decades of NFL dominance will be on display when the Patriots play in their 8th Super Bowl this coming Sunday. And when the confetti falls sometime around 10 p.m. Eastern time at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Roger Goodell will once again trudge to the makeshift platform on the 50 yard line and hand another trophy to Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
An entire generation of football fans has known the NFL only when it has been dominated by the New England Patriots. Many will groan as the Patriots march to their 6th championship, wondering how a dynasty is possible in a league where salaries are capped and the draft rewards the worst teams.
The Eagles are a nice team. They seemingly have the Giants-like type of defense that twice defeated Brady – an attacking four-man front matched with solid corners. They have a feel-good story of backup QB Nick Foles coming off the best game of his life in the NFC Championship Game and Foles will be going against a Pats defense that gives up a lot of yards. They also have an effective running game that includes LeGarrette Blount, who will never have to pay for another drink in Philly if he can defeat NE one year after helping the Pats win the Super Bowl.
But while the pieces are there for Philadelphia, it won’t be enough. Just like it wasn’t enough in 2005, when the Eagles came up just short against the Pats in the 39th Super Bowl. New England has too much experience, too much preparation and too much focus.
How’s this for a stat? Next Sunday will be the Patriots’ 8th Super Bowl of the decade and they have not scored a single point in the first quarter of any of them? Does it matter in the slightest if the Patriots fall behind next Sunday? Ask the Falcons if you don’t know the answer.
Barring a disabling injury to the oldest player on the field tomorrow, the Patriots will win this one – and cover the 5-point spread while doing it. They have the best coach and the best quarterback and in a game where the talent gap is often measured in millimeters, most of the time that’s enough.
Quite simply, the Patriots know how to win these games and unlike the Eagles they will be prepared for every possible situation. And while they would never admit it even under torture, they probably already know what they’re going to say when Goodell once again forces a smile and hands them the Lombardi Trophy. Play on New England.