|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 53||24-27||Win||100||116 h 6 m||Show|
My 9* O/U play is the under Ravens/Chiefs (1:00 EST).
Baltimore comes in off a 26-16 road win over Atlanta last weekend, while the Chiefs posted a 40-33 win over the Raiders. If Kansas City is going to move ahead in the playoffs, it’s going to have to learn how to play defense at some point.
The Ravens won’t be looking to turn this one into a shootout. Instead the visitors will be hoping to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the field as play whenever possible.
And that means clock control while on offense themselves. Baltimore rookie RB Lamar Jackson has started three straight games and led his team to victory in each. He only has 540 passing yards with a weak 2/3 TD/INT, but he’s also posted a thrilling 404 rushing yards.
Overall the Ravens are averaging 24.8 PPG and allowing an NFL best 17.8.
The Chiefs are averaging 37 PPG and conceding 27.2. Mahomes has a stellar 41/10 TD/INT thus far.
I’ll point out as well that Baltimore has seen the total go under the under in four of six on the road already this year, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 23 as a home favorite.
This number is a little high, play the under.
|12-09-18||Giants v. Redskins +3.5||40-16||Loss||-105||116 h 60 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST).
The 4-8 New York Giants are looking to deliver the knock out blow to the Redskins, but I think the desperate home side keeps this one competitive.
The over-achieving Giants look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Note though that despite that New York has still dropped four of its last six on the road. QB Eli Manning has a weak 15/8 TD/INT. So far Manning has one or less TD pass in eight of his 11 games.
New York has been weak on the defensive side of the ball as well by conceding 26.3 PPG.
A win today the Skins are back above .500 and right back in the NFC playoff race. QB Mark Sanchez will get the call here, but I’m not basing my play on the veteran whatsoever. Washington has many other weapons, including Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson.
Overall Washington has been decent defensively, allowing 21.4 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that New York is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and only 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win as an underdog, while Washington is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a loss by ten points or more.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|12-09-18||Panthers -1 v. Browns||Top||20-26||Loss||-120||116 h 34 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today.
It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG.
However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG.
Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT.
The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home.
I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina.
Play on the Panthers.
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans OVER 37||Top||9-30||Win||100||56 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* play on the over Jaguars/Titans (8:20 EST).
The Jags come in off a 6-0 win at home over the Colts, while the Titans saved their season with a late 26-22 home win over the Jets.
Tennessee took the first game this year 9-6, but I’m finally expecting more of a wide open shootout on the short week between these two desperate teams.
The Jags defense stepped up with their best performance of the season last week, but consistency on the road and from game to game has been Jacksonville’s biggest problem this year.
The Titans had to rally from a 16-0 first half deficit last week and I fully expect Tennessee to keep that momentum rolling here.
And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout, as note that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in its last three in revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
This number is a little low, play the over.
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5||Top||13-28||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Skins/Eagles (8:15 EST).
To say this is a big game would be an understatement. It’s a “must win” game for both teams. A victory assures nothing, other than “being in the playoff picture” for another week, while a loss “seals the deal” on a disappointing season.
With so much on the line, I’m absolutely expecting more of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control becomes paramount in the end.
Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency. The Redskins are down to the backup QB in Colt McCoy after losing Alex Smith to injury for the year. McCoy was unspectacular in the Thanksgiving day loss to the Texans, going for 268 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Clearly Washington won’t be asking McCoy to do too much more than just manage the game today, as the visitors establish the run game and hope that their defense and special teams come up big.
The Eagles needed a late rally to salvage their season last week, pulling away for a 25-22 win over the Giants. Carson Wentz was an efficient 20 of 28 for 236 yards and a TD. RB Josh Adams was big with 84 yards on 22 carries.
But like the Redskins, the Eagles are going to be relying on their defense to come up big today and to dictate the pace of this one.
Note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in its last four road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six home games already this season.
For all the reasons listed above, play the under.
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||Top||33-30||Loss||-130||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).
This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.
LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG.
Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches.
I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.
|12-02-18||Vikings +6 v. Patriots||10-24||Loss||-115||100 h 10 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Vikings 8* (4:25 EST).
The 6-4-1 Minnesota Vikings are on the road to take on the 8-3 New England Patriots and while the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.
The Vikes are averaging 24.1 PPG. QB Kirk Cousins has a sharp 22/7 TD/INT.
The Pats are averaging 27.9 PPG. QB Tom Brady has a 19/7 TD/INT.
These teams are evenly matched. The difference comes in the trends though, as note that Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference game and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
|12-02-18||49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5||16-43||Loss||-110||100 h 10 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under 49ers/Hawks 9* (4:25 EST).
San Francisco comes in off a 27-9 loss at Tampa Bay and I think it’ll have difficulty producing much offense this week either.
Seattle enters off a much-needed 30-27 road win over Carolina and it’ll be looking to avoid a dangerous letdown here.
Overall San Francisco is averaging 20.7 PPG, while conceding 26.6. QB Nick Mullens threw for 221 yards and a TD in last week’s loss, but he also had two INTs.
Seattle is averaging 147.1 rushing yards per game, which is No. 1 in the league. Look for the home side to double down on the run game this week. Overall the Hawks average 25.1 PPG and allow 22.1.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go under in six of its last eight vs. teams with losing records, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after scoring ten points or less in its previous outing.
This number is high, play the under.
|12-02-18||Jets v. Titans -7.5||22-26||Loss||-110||100 h 50 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tennessee Titans 8* (4:05 EST).
New York enters off a 27-13 home loss to new England, while Tennessee comes in off a 34-17 setback to the Texans on the road.
Overall New York is averaging only 20.1 PPG, while conceding 25.5. QB Sam Darnold has missed the last two games with injury and he’s doubtful here. Backup Josh McCown has 276 yards and a TD last week vs. the Pats, but also a costly INT.
Tennessee had won two in a row before last week’s 34-17 loss to the Titans. Overall the Titans are averaging 17.7 PPG and allowing 20.3.
The Titans though are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six after two or more SU losses, while New York is just 2-6 ATS as an underdog this year and only 1-4 ATS on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|12-02-18||Browns v. Texans -6||Top||13-29||Win||100||116 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST).
The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it.
The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG.
The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs.
I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak.
This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points.
|12-02-18||Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5||0-6||Win||100||97 h 46 m||Show|
My 9* total is on the under Colts/Jags (1:00 EST).
Indianapolis has won six straight. Last week the Colts beat Miami 27-24. Indy’ QB Andrew Luck has 3,112 yards and a 32/11 TD/INT. RB Marlon Mack has 556 rushing yards and four TDs. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 29.5 PPG, but I think it’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball today in this unfriendly road venue.
The Jags are desperate for a win after seven straight losses. Last week Jacksonville fell 24-21 to Buffalo. QB Blake Bortles has 2,572 passing yards and a weak 13/10 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the rushing attack with 385 yards thus far. The defense has been decent for Jacksonville, but the offense is averaging only 17.9 PPG.
I’ll point out that Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following two or more SU wins, while Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
Note that Bortles is being benched in favor of Cody Kessler. With the home side clearly committed to establishing the run in an attempt to keep Luck off the field of play, look for this one to fall under the number once it’s all said and done.
|12-01-18||Northwestern v. Ohio State -14||24-45||Win||100||98 h 19 m||Show|
The third pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State 9* (8:00 EST).
Clearly this is a mismatch, so the only question remains, will the Buckeyes come in a bit complacent and take this game for granted, or will they lay the hammer down from start to finish? In my opinion, it’s going to be the second scenario.
Northwestern averages only 23.7 PPG, but it allows only 134.7 rushing yards and just 238 passing yards. The Wildcats have some big wins this year vs. teams like Iowa and Purdue, but remember they also lost 39-34 at home to Akron.
QB Clayton Thorson has a 14/12 TD/INT, along with another eight rushing TDs.
Ohio State is not assured a spot in the Playoffs, so the only thing it can control here is a posting a resounding victory. Overall the Buckeyes rank second in the nation in offense with 544.1 YPG, while allowing 161.9 rushing yards per contest. QB Dwayne Haskins has a huge 42/7 TD/INT.
I’ll point out that Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while Northwestern is just 1-5 ATS in its last six in this series.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|12-01-18||Fresno State +3 v. Boise State||19-16||Win||100||98 h 55 m||Show|
The first pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Fresno State 8* (7:45 EST).
This is the Mountain West Conference Championship game from Albertsons Stadium on Saturday night.
Since the league went to a two-division format in 2013, these two teams have combined for seven championship appearances.
Last year these teams met in the Championship game as well and Fresno State will indeed be playing with “revenge” after falling 17-14 in that one.
The Bulldogs average 36.3 PPG and they concede 13.5. QB Marcus McMaryion had 317 yards passing and two TDs in last weeks win over San Jose State.
Boise State averages 37.0 PPG and it concedes 22.3. QB Brett Rypien is averaging over 300 passing yards per game this season.
I’ll point out though that the Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. teams with winning records, while the Broncos are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. These teams met at this exact venue earlier this season and it was Boise State which came out on to top 24-17.
This is in fact a “double revenge” scenario. Grab the points.
|12-01-18||Clemson -26 v. Pittsburgh||42-10||Win||100||97 h 4 m||Show|
The second pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson 8* (8:00 EST).
Clearly this is a mismatch. So will the mighty Clemson Tigers keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and clobber the Pittsburgh Panthers into oblivion? I think the answer is a resounding: “yes!”
The Tigers are undefeated at 12-0 and a win today in the ACC Championship game secures them a berth in the Playoffs.
Overall the Tigers are out-scoring their opponents by an average of 31.7 PPG this year. Overall they average 45.7 points and concede just 14.0. QB Trevor Lawrence has a 22/4 TD/INT.
Pittsburgh is averaging only 27.8 PPG, while allowing 27.8 as well. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success most nights. RB Qadree Ollison has 1,134 rushing yards and ten TDs this season.
I’ll pint out as well that Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Clemson is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 after two or more SU victories.
I like the Tigers to dominate on both ends of the field. Lay the points.
|12-01-18||Georgia +13.5 v. Alabama||Top||28-35||Win||100||97 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* SEC Championship Game Winner is on Georgia (4:00 EST).
This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff and I think that Georgia bettors will get a small amount of “revenge” tonight.
Alabama is 12-0 and it avenged its loss to the Tigers in the Iron Bowl last season with a 52-21 victory. Overall the Crimson Tide rolled up 500 yards of offense, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for five TDs.
Tagovailoa has an insane 36/2 TD/INT on the year. Defensively the Tide are strong too obviously, having not allowed an opponent to gain 300 total yards in its last six contests.
Georgia won’t be going down without a fight. The Bulldogs are 11-1 and they have to win this game, or this will be the end of their season (other than the upcoming bowl of course, but a playoff spot out of the question and no SEC shot.)
The Dogs though come in on top form as well, having won five straight, including a 45-21 destruction of Georgia Tech last weekend. QB Jake Fromm had three first half TD passes. Fromm has a 24/5 TD/INT.
Georgia has the defense to compete today, allowing just 17.2 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, and 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while the favorite is 0-5 in the last five meetings between these teams.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the stage is definitely set for a “nail biter.” Grab the points.
|12-01-18||Stanford -2.5 v. California||Top||23-13||Win||100||95 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF YEAR is on Stanford (3:00 EST).
Stanford enters off a momentum building 48-17 home win over Oregon State, while Cal’s also off a big victory, holding on for an upset 15-14 road victory over USC. Note that Stanford won this matchup at home last year 17-14.
This is a make-up game from a couple of weeks ago because of the wildfires.
Stanford’ QB KJ Costello had 342 yards with four TD’s and an INT in its latest win over the Beavers. The Cardinal are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re allowing 23.0.
Cal is averaging only 22.7 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 21.1 PPG. The Bears’ defense has looked sharp of late, but I think the unit gets tested in a big way here against Costello and company.
I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight after posting less than 275 total yards in its previous game, while Stanford is a solid 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 after posting more than 40 points in its previous game.
I have a hard time seeing the Bears’ offense keeping pace down the stretch. With an extra week off to prepare, I like Costello to find a way to get the job done.
Lay the points.
|12-01-18||Texas +7.5 v. Oklahoma||27-39||Loss||-105||90 h 17 m||Show|
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Texas (12:00 EST).
It’s the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game from AT&T Stadium in Texas.
Texas beat Kansas last weekend to post its position in this contest. QB Sam Ehlinger wasn’t at his best last week, going for 314 yards, two TDs and no INTs. Over the Longhorns have been sharp defensively of late though, allowing only 20.3 PPG over their last three.
Texas though is the No. 1 offense in the country, averaging 50.2 PPG.
The Sooners are averaging 53.2 PPG over their last four games, but they’ve also conceded 47.3 in that span as well. Overall though Oklahoma is averaging 31.7 PPG this year and allowing 25.2. QB Kyler Murray had 364 yards, three TDs and one INT last weekend.
I’ll point out though that Oklahoma is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 40 or more points in its previous outing, while Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 vs. teams with winning records.
The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS the last six in this series. Expect all of these strong trends to continue on Saturday afternoon.
Play on Texas.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||107 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* MAC Championship WINNER is on Northern Illinois.
Buffalo went 10-2 in the regular season and 7-1 in MAC action, while NIU went 7-5 with a 6-2 record in MAC conference play.
If recent history is any precedence though, then NIU has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met last year, it was the Huskies that posted the 14-13 road win.
The Bulls averaged 35.2 PPG this year and they conceded 24.2. In the Bulls regular season finale they ran for 332 rushing yards in a 44-14 road win over Bowling Green. QB Tyree Jackson finished with a 25/11 TD/INT.
The NIU Huskies averaged only 19.9 PPG, while limiting opponents to 20.9 PPG. The offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who had 100 rushing yards in three out of his last four games.
I’ll point out as well that NIU is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field.
The Huskies took the foot off the gas a little early to end the regular season, but NIU has the defense to keep it in this one. I’m expecting an all out war.
Grab the points.
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||Top||17-34||Loss||-105||13 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).
Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight.
The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team.
The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams.
Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average.
The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread.
So where’s the advantage?
This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well.
Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here.
Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-25-18||Packers +3.5 v. Vikings||17-24||Loss||-119||133 h 16 m||Show|
My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST).
Minnesota enters off a devastating divisional loss to Chicago. The Vikes have now lost two of their last three. Green Bay fans can empathize, as their team sits at 4-5, having now lost three of its last four.
It’s do or die for the Packers this weekend, as another loss will officially knock the team out of playoff contention. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the ions.
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a sharp 19/1 TD/INT on the year and he had 332 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s 27-24 loss at Seattle. Davante Adams was another standout with 166 receiving yards on ten catches.
The Vikes’ offense has been a disaster with QB Kirk Cousins, who has a weak 5/4 TD/INT over his last three games. Two of those INTs were returned for TDs as well. Stefon Diggs was a bright spot in the setback last week with 125 yards and a TD.
I’ll point out that Green Bay is still 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. clubs with winning records, while Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-25-18||Steelers -3 v. Broncos||17-24||Loss||-115||101 h 21 m||Show|
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 EST).
The Broncos ended the Chargers' six-game winning streak with a 23-22 win last Sunday in LA , as a TD underdog. However, at 4-6, Denver has more than a little work to do to avoid consecutive losing season for the first time in 46 years! This game marks Denver's lone home contest in a four-week span (in LA against the Chargers last week, with trips to Cincy and San Fran following the Steelers coming to town on Sunday). As for those Steelers, they visit “Mile High” having won six straight contests (who needs Bell?), following a comeback win against the free-falling Jaguars last Sunday. Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 SU on the road this season, after going 7-1 last year (that's an 11-1-1 SU run away from home!). Can't let the small impost stand in the way of taking "Big Ben" over Case Keenum!
Lay the points.
|11-25-18||Browns v. Bengals UNDER 47.5||Top||35-20||Loss||-109||126 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Browns/Bengals (1:00 EST).
The 3-6-1 Cleveland Browns would love nothing more than to punch another one into the win column and to put a nail in the coffin for the Bengals season at the same time. Cincinnati is 5-5.
The Browns remain competitive each week, thanks mostly to an above average defensive unit. Last week QB Baker Mayfield had 216 yards and three TDs, but the big star was RB Nick Chubb, who has 176 rushing yards and a TD.
After starting off 4-1, it’s do or die for the .500 Bengals. Cincinnati catches a break though facing the Browns offense which is averaging only 21 PPG. Last week QB Andy Dalton had 211 yards and two TDs in the loss to the Ravens.
From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up more as a “chess match” than a wide open “shoot out.” The Bengals will look to control this one while on offense to keep Mayfield off. The Browns will once again be relying on their defense to pull this one out for them.
Additionally note that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 21 of its last 36 as an underdog, while the Bengals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last 11 following two or more losses.
For all the reasons listed above, play the under.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-125||126 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG.
Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG.
These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well.
Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points.
|11-25-18||Giants +7 v. Eagles||22-25||Win||100||98 h 57 m||Show|
My 8* Showdown is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
I think the defending champs have now thrown in the towel on their season and I look for the surging Giants to take advantage. New York’s offense is firing on all cylinders, coming into this one off a 38-35 win over Tampa last week.
The Eagles on the other hand come in off an embarrassing 48-7 loss to the Saints. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” as well for New York, as Philly posted the 34-13 road win last month.
New York’s offense has been great of late, but the weakness has been on the defensive side of the ball. But the Giants’ defense catches a break here facing an Eagles unit which is struggling with consistency.
While New York has now won two straight, the Eagles enter having lost two straight (and three of their last four.) Philly is just 2-3 at home and it’s averaging only 20.5 PPG, while conceding 23.1.
I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while New York is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road.
Grab the points.
|11-24-18||Utah State +3 v. Boise State||Top||24-33||Loss||-114||112 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Utah State (10:15 EST).
To be the best, you have to beat the best. The 10-1 Utah State Aggies will look to dethrone the 9-2 Boise State Broncos.
The Aggies come in having won ten straight after a 29-24 win over Colorado State last weekend. QB Jordan Love has been exceptional so far this season with 25 TDs and four INTs.
But Utah State also has a pair of elite RBs in Gerold Bright and Darwin Thompson, who have combined for 1,670 yards rushing and 22 TDs.
The Aggies have been unstoppable offensively this year, averaging 500.1 yards of total offense, while posting 49.3 PPG (ranked No. 2 in the country!)
Boise State has won six straight, most recently a 45-14 victory over lowly New Mexico. QB Brett Rypien has been a standout with 3,270 yards, 28 TDs and seven INTs. On the season the Broncos are averaging 465 yards and 37.4 points per game.
I’ll point out though that Utah State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. the conference, while Boise State is only 6-15 ATS in its last 21 home games.
Finally note that the road team is in fact 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 in this series as well.
I like the Aggies’ amazing offense to be just too much for the Broncos to keep up with down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +11||24-17||Win||100||107 h 1 m||Show|
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on USC (8:00 EST).
No. 3 Notre Dame and USC collide at the LA Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night and while I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do expect a more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Note that this is a revenge game after Notre Dame crushed USC 49-14 last year. Also note the Trojans are playing for their coaches job, as Clay Helton will be fired if he loses this one.
The Irish have their eyes on the prize and they come in averaging 454.9 YPG. On the defensive side they’re conceding just 321.4 YPG.
USC is 5-6 and will need to pull off an upset to become bowl eligible. The Trojans have nothing to lose and they’ll be especially motivated after falling to UCLA last weekend. Offensively USC is averaging just 138.1 YPG. Defensively the Trojans have been decent overall, allowing 211.5 YPG through the air and 168.8 YPG on the ground.
I’ll point out as well that Notre Dame is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range and only 2-3 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records, while USC is still 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more SU losses.
For all the reasons listed above, play on USC.
|11-24-18||Rutgers v. Michigan State OVER 37||Top||10-14||Loss||-109||106 h 45 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Rutgers/MSU (4:00 EST).
There’s absolutely nothing on the line here for either team. Rutger is 1-10 and it has nothing to lose, as it’ll be opening up the playbook to try and score an improbable outright upset.
The Scarlet Knights have lost seven straight on the road. QB Artur Sitkowski has 1,158 passing yards, four TDs and 18 INTs. The ground game has been decent by averaging 136.4 PPG.
While the offense has been poor, the defense has been downright terrible, allowing 33 PPG.
Michigan State is already bowl eligible, but it’ll be looking to end its season strong for its seniors after splitting its last four games. QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi have combined for ten TDs and 11 INTs. The ground game is averaging 120.6 YPG and the defense is conceding 18.7 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Rutgers has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while MSU has seen the total go over in three of its last four vs. teams with losing records and in four of six as a favorite this season.
With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to soar over sooner, rather than later.
|11-24-18||Arizona State v. Arizona +2||41-40||Win||100||103 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 9* play on Arizona (3:30 EST).
Arizona State looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its three-game win streak was snapped at Oregon last weekend.
Arizona has nothing to lose here and it’ll be eager to get back on track on seniors night after a blowout loss to high-flying Washington State.
After last week’s 31-29 loss at Oregon last Saturday, the Wildcats have now officially been eliminated from Pac 12 Championship Game contention. And with that sad fact weighing heavily, I do indeed expect a predictable letdown here from the visitors in this difficult road venue.
Besides, there’s no question that this one “means more” to Arizona, which still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The home side will be risking life and limb today to try and secure a victory and I believe this will in fact be the difference maker in the end.
Additionally note that ASU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite, while Arizona is 4-2 ATS at home and a perfect 3-0 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona.
|11-24-18||Michigan -3.5 v. Ohio State||39-62||Loss||-110||99 h 3 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan 8* (12:00 EST).
The winner of this contest will compete in the Big 10 Title Game. Michigan enters off a 31-20 home win over Indiana, while Ohio State enters off an exhausting and improbable 52-51 OT road win over Maryland. Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for Michigan after Ohio State won this game 31-20 on the road last season.
In fact, Ohio State has won six in a row in this series. Overall the Wolverines are averaging only 26.6 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 13.5.
With a chance to avenge last year’s loss and to de-rail Ohio State’s National Title hopes, I think Michigan finally gets over the hump here. Overall the Buckeyes are averaging 41.6 PPG and conceding 24.6.
I’ll point out that the Buckeyes though are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after scoring 40 points or more in their previous game, while Michigan is a solid 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 following an ATS loss.
Defense wins the day. Play on Michigan.
|11-24-18||Florida -5 v. Florida State||41-14||Win||100||99 h 3 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Florida 8* (12:00 EST).
Florida comes in off a 63-10 home win over Idaho and I look for the Gators to lay the hammer down on both ends of the field this afternoon as well. FSU comes in off a much tighter than expected 21-20 home win over BC and I think it’ll predictably stumble here in the “step up” in competition.
Note that this is a revenge game as well for the Gators after the Seminoles took this matchup 38-22 last season.
Florida is averaging 33.9 PPG and it’s conceding just 21. QB Feleipe Franks had 274 yards passing and three TDs last week.
FSU is averaging only 22.6 PPG and it’s conceding 30.6. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deondre Francois has a poor 14/10 TD/INT.
Additionally note that FSU is a poor 3-9-2 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records, while Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Gators.
|11-24-18||Purdue -4 v. Indiana||28-21||Win||100||99 h 3 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Purdue 9* (12:00 EST).
Purdue enters off a 47-44 triple OT loss to Wisconsin, while Indiana fell 31-20 at Michigan.
If recent history is any precedence, though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances for a bounce back here as last year they’d take this game 31-24.
Purdue is averaging 32.3 PPG and it’s conceding 27.8. QB David Blough has a sharp 22/7 TD/INT. The Boilermakers still need one more victory to become eligible.
Indiana is averaging 26.9 PPG and it’s conceding 30.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success.
QB Peyton Ramsey has a weak 18/12 TD/INT.
Note as well that Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS win, while the Boilermakers are interestingly 21-6 ATS in their last 27 after posing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Look for the desperate/hungry team to pull away down the stretch. Play on Purdue.
|11-23-18||Washington v. Washington State -3||Top||28-15||Loss||-106||86 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Washington State (8:30 EST).
The winner of this game will play in the Pac 12 Championship game next weekend and in my opinion. home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest.
WSU comes in with a ton of momentum with seven straight victories. The Huskies have been playing well as well, with back-to-back wins over Stanford and Oregon State.
Jake Browning and the Huskies have three losses this year, so they won’t be going to the Football Championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can win out, but I think they’ll fall flat against a surging WSU team which plays with triple revenge, having fallen to Browning three times already.
The Cougars now have the best offense in the Pac 12, averaging 40.5 PPG. No other team in the conference is putting up more than 35.5.
WSU most recently obliterated Arizona 69-28, with QB Gardner Minshew throwing for seven TD passes.
So far Minshew has 36 TDs and just seven INTs.
Note as well that Washington State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records, while Washington is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on WSU.
|11-23-18||Oklahoma v. West Virginia +1.5||59-56||Loss||-109||86 h 58 m||Show|
My 9* Big 12 DECIDER is on West Virginia (8:00 EST).
Oklahoma comes in having won five in a row. The Sooners have already punched their ticket to the Big 12 Championship game, so a win or loss today means nothing in that regard.
The Mountaineers though need to win this game, plus have Texas lose this weekend, and if that happens, then WVU will be playing Oklahoma next week as well.
Oklahoma won last week, but it wasn’t pretty in the 55-40 victory over lowly Kansas.
In fact note that the Sooners have dropped to seventh in scoring in the Big 12. The offense is amazing behind QB Kyler Murray, but clearly the Mountaineers are going to have their opportunities on that side of the ball as well.
WVU is out to atone for a 45-41 setback to Oklahoma State, a rare poor defensive effort. QB Will Grier was sharp though, finishing with 364 yards and two TDs.
Note that WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records.
For all the reasons listed above, play on WVU.
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +4.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-110||69 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).
The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday.
Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th.
The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here?
The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year.
Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak.
While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -3||Top||51-54||Push||0||14 h 60 m||Show|
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).
I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game.
KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.)
LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here.
Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday.
The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front.
KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.
Play on LA.
|11-18-18||Vikings v. Bears -1||20-25||Win||100||150 h 24 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).
The Vikes smashed the Lions 24-9 in Week 9 before their bye week and suffice it to say, I believe they come to this difficult venue with some “rust.”
Chicago on the other hand destroyed Detroit 34-22 and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over here as well.
Additionally note that this is a “double revenge” game for the Bears after Minnesota took both contests last season.
Overall the Vikings average 24.6 PPG, while conceding 22.7. QB Kirk Cousins has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 17/5 TD/INT.
The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re conceding only 19.4. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 2,304 passing yards and a 19/7 TD/INT.
I’ll point out though that Minnesota is still just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division, while Chicago already 2-0 ATS against the division this season and now 3-1 ATS after two or more SU wins.
Lay the points and expect a blowout.
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||Top||7-48||Loss||-114||127 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s do or die for the defending champs.
The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs.
Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined.
Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG.
New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here
Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG.
I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points.
Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary.
I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-18-18||Panthers v. Lions UNDER 52||19-20||Win||100||143 h 6 m||Show|
My 9* O/U Total is the under Panthers/Lions (1:00 EST).
Carolina is out to atone for its 52-21 loss in Pittsburgh last week. Detroit is also out for a little redemption after its 34-22 loss in Chicago last Sunday.
Overall the Panthers are averaging 26.8 PPG and they’re conceding 25.8. Carolina is still second in the NFC South, but after giving up 457 yards last weekend, the worst of the season to date, clearly Carolina will be out for a better performance today against the incredibly one-dimensional Lions.
Detroit’s defense wasn’t actually all that bad in last week’s loss, giving up 348 total yards. Overall though they’re allowing 27.1 PPG, which is ranked 28th in the NFl. The offense has been an issue as well this year for Detroit, as Matt Stafford has a poor 16/8 TD/INT and overall the unit is averaging only 22.4 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after two or more SU losses.
This number is a little high, play the under.
|11-18-18||Cowboys v. Falcons -3||Top||22-19||Loss||-120||143 h 5 m||Show|
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though.
It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today.
Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD.
The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team.
The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches.
I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points.
The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||123 h 16 m||Show|
This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
I think the Titans predictably stumble here after their epic win over New England last week.
The Colts and the ever-improving Andrew Luck continue to get little respect, as they come into this one on top form with three straight victories.
Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota has sure looked a lot better of late as well, leading his team to back-to-back victories. Last week Mariota had 228 yards and two TDs against the Pats. Prior to this two-game sure though he had six TDs and eight INTs.
Luck has been the beneficiary of a revamped offensive line and he’s now playing arguably the best ball of his entire career. Luck or Mariota in College, who would you take? Last week Indy had 366 yards and 29 points on Jacksonville.
I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is still just 9-13 ATS in its last 22 on the road and a horrible 2-8 ATS in its last ten after two or more SU wins, while Indy is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts.
|11-17-18||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida||Top||13-38||Loss||-109||126 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Cincinnati (8:00 EST).
This is a big game for both teams. The Bearcats are 9-1 and the UCF Knights are 9-0.
Cincinnati has won four of its last five on the road and QB Desmond Ridder has 1,897 passing yards and a sharp 15/5 TD/INT. Note that Ridder has two or more TD passes in six of his last eight games. The ground game is averaging whopping 235.8 YPG, led by Michael Warren II with 1,082 yard and 17 TDs.
Overall the Bearcats are allowing just 14.9 points and 279.8 YPG.
The Knights’ McKenzie Milton has 2,309 yards passing and a 21/5 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 271.4 YPG and the defense is conceding 21.8.
I think the Bearcats will have their chances today. They’re already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog. UFC though is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records.
UCF may ultimately win this one outright, but I look for Ridder and company to take this one down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|11-17-18||Tulsa +5 v. Navy||29-37||Loss||-108||122 h 51 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (8*) Tulsa (3:30 EST).
Neither team has anything to play for now except pride as each sits at just 2-8. Note though that Tulsa plays with revenge here after the Midshipmen beat the Golden Hurricane 31-21.
Tulsa fell flat 47-21 to Memphis last weekend. Corey Taylor II is the focal point of the offense and he so far has 748 rushing yards and seven TD’s on the ground. Defense has been the weak point for Tulsa all season.
Navy has struggled with offensive consistency of late. The Midshipmen rank last in the country in passing with only 64.7 YPG average, while ranking third in the country in rushing with 295.7 YPG.
Defensively the mids are in fact pretty poor as well, ranked 105th in yards allowed and 95th against the run.
Additionally note that Tulsa is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a conference rival, while Navy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position.
I’m grabbing the points and expecting a very competitive battle.
|11-17-18||West Virginia -5.5 v. Oklahoma State||41-45||Loss||-107||122 h 51 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (8*) WVU (3:30 EST).
Oklahoma State comes in off a near upset over Oklahoma and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. In fact the Cowboys have now lost two in a row.
And that’s bad news facing a surging WVU team which has won its last three over TCU, Texas and Baylor.
West Virginia QB Will Grier so far has 2,961 yards, 31 TDs and eight INTs. Grier has thrown for 300-plus yards over three straight starts, most recently going for 343 with three TDs and an INT against the Horned Frogs.
Oklahoma State came up just short 48-47 last week and I think it’s primed for a letdown. QB Taylor Cornelius had 501 passing yards and three TDs, but the defense was a disaster show, allowing 702 yards to the Sooners.
Note that WVU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following a win of more than 20 points, while Oklahoma State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS victory.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|11-17-18||Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss +2.5||Top||20-21||Win||100||122 h 51 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (9*) Southern Miss (3:30 EST).
Southern Miss comes in off a a near upset of UAB and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.
Louisiana Tech enters off a victory over lowly Rice, but I think the Bulldogs come up short here.
Bulldogs’ QB J’Mar Smith had 314 yards with one TD and two INTs last week. But Louisiana Tech is going to have its hands full with this Golden Eagles team which just pushed the mighty Blazers to OT.
QB Tate Whatley and the offense managed 23 points last week and note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a favorite in the +1.5 to +3.5 points range.
I think the Southern Miss defense is the difference maker, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Play on Southern Miss.
|11-17-18||USC v. UCLA +3.5||27-34||Win||100||102 h 56 m||Show|
My 9* play in on UCLA (3:30 EST).
I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
USC enters off a 15-14 home loss to Cal, and I think it suffers a predictable letdown here after that upset. UCLA enters off a tight 31-28 road loss to ASU on Saturday.
USC is averaging 26.9 PPG and it’s conceding 26.6. QB JT Daniels has 1,986 passing yards with 11 TDs and eight iNTs.
UCLA won’t be playing in a bowl, but it won’t be going down without a fight in the first season of the Chip Kelly ear. Last week the Bruins were edged 480-439, and they come into this one averaging 21.9 points, while allowing 33.3.
I’l point out that USC is just 2-4 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival and only 7-8 ATS in its last 15 on the road, while UCLA is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 off a loss against a conference rival and 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more SU losses.
For all the reasons listed above, play on UCLA.
|11-16-18||Memphis -8 v. SMU||Top||28-18||Win||100||104 h 42 m||Show|
My 10* AAC West Showdown is on Memphis (9:00 EST).
Memphis is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while SMU is 5-5 and needing one more win to punch its ticket. The Tigers won’t be satisfied with simply making a bowl game though and they’ll love nothing more than to prolong the Mustangs chances for another week. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting a decisive Memphis win.
The Tigers have won two straight, but they’ll be cautious here as they’ve lost three of their last four away from friendly confines. QB Brady White so far has 2,512 passing yards and a sharp 22/3 TD/INT. Overall Memphis is allowing 30.5 PPG.
SMU has won two in a row and three of its last four at home, but with the step up in competition, I believe the Mustangs predictably stumble here. William Brown and Ben Hicks have combined for 23 TD passes and five INTs. The Mustangs are even worse defensively than Memphis though, allowing 36.8 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games and that the favorite is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series.
The Tigers have scored more than 30 points five straight games and I look for that trend to carry over here.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3 v. North Texas||Top||38-41||Push||0||80 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Florida Atlantic (9:30 EST).
FAU enters off a 34-15 drubbing of WKU and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Mean Green though enter off a tough 34-31 loss against ODU last weekend and I believe it’ll stumble again here as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then FAU has to be liking its chances for another big victory tonight, because when these teams met last year it was FAU that posted the 69-31 home win.
FAU has in fact won two in a row. The Owls don’t really rely on QB Chris Robison, who has an admittedly poor 8/10 TD/INT. He was very sharp last week though by completing 17 of 21 for 231 yards. But the FAU offense revolves around RB Devin Singletary, who already has 1,169 rushing yards to go along with 20 TD’s.
Overall the Owls are averaging 31.1 PPG and they’re conceding 31.3.
North Texas is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.3, but last week it looked poor in the road loss to ODU. QB Mason Fine had 240 yards and two TDs and he still has an amazing 23/2 TD/INT on the year, but after last week’s collapse, I think the hungry Owls will have their opportunities today to pull off the outright upset.
Note that FAU is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while UNT is just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year and already 0-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-15-18||Packers +3 v. Seahawks||Top||24-27||Push||0||58 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST).
This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end.
So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams.
Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores.
It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.)
Grab the points.
|11-14-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois||Top||13-7||Win||100||55 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I believe this is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.
NIU is rolling after back to back wins over Toledo and Akron, while Miami Ohio kept its bowl hopes alive with an impressive victory over Ohio last Wednesday.
The Redhawks have no time to dwell on that win though as they have to keep the foot on the gas if they want to reach the promised land. Special teams came up big for Miami Ohio last week, as it would block a punt in the end zone for a TD. The defense also posted a second half fourth quarter safety.
NIU is getting great play from RB Tre Harbison, who had 21 carries for 139 yards last week. QB Marcus Childers though hasn’t been spectacular and I think he’ll struggle against this aggressive and improving Miami Ohio defense.
Note as well that Miami Ohio is already 3-0 ATS tho shear off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is still only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favourite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The Redhawks look vastly improved defensively last week and another effort like that could have them scoring the outright upset tonight. That said, in a contest which I envision being decided late, I’ll grab the points.
|11-12-18||Giants +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||27-23||Win||100||36 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST)
These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night.
San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side.
Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.)
The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense.
Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak.
Grab the points.
|11-11-18||Cowboys v. Eagles -6||27-20||Loss||-109||151 h 4 m||Show|
My 9* Sunday Night Magic is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).
Golden Tate makes his debut with the Eagles on Sunday night and I think he and Carson Wentz will be too much for the struggling Cowboys to handle.
After a slow start, the defending champs now sit one game behind the Redskins for the NFC East lead. Washington is now suffering through injuries, so the door is now open for the Eagles to put the foot on the gas and re-gain command.
Dallas comes in reeling, it’s dropped two straight, most recently a listless 28-14 setback on Monday to Tennessee. WR Amari Cooper had five catches for 58 yards and a TD.
Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 243 yards and two TDs, but he was also sacked five times and he’d go on to throw an INT in the end zone as well.
The Dallas defense looked horrible as well, allowing Tennessee to convert 11 of 14 on third down. Also note that the Cowboys committed two turnovers for a second straight game.
Wentz dominated the Cowboys last year in two games, going for 413 yards, four TDs and zero INTs.
The Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win and after dropping their last two games at home, I expect Philadelphia to lay the hammer down here early and often.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|11-11-18||Falcons -4 v. Browns||16-28||Loss||-105||144 h 47 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
Cleveland isn’t going to the playoffs. The Browns have already won a couple of games this year, which is clearly a vast improvement over last season’s winless squad.
But the Falcons come in on top form and I believe that momentum is going to be carried over.
After a 1-4 start, Atlanta has now won three straight.
The Falcons are averaging 28.5 PPG and they’re allowing 28.3. The offense is averaging 338 YPG through the air. QB Matt Ryan has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 19/3 TD/INT ratio.
Cleveland has “improved” over last year’s inept squad, but the numbers still aren’t great. Overall Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense is averaging 21.1 PPG, while the defense is conceding 27.4.
I’ll point out as well that ATL is a sharp 9-4 ATS in its last 13 following two or more SU victories, while Cleveland is just 6-23 ATS in its last 29 after two or more consecutive SU losses.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons.
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +4.5||Top||51-14||Loss||-110||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).
The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here.
New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs.
The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory.
Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs.
From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive.
Grab the points.
|11-11-18||Redskins v. Bucs UNDER 51.5||16-3||Win||100||144 h 45 m||Show|
My 8* O/U top play is the under Redskins/Bucs (1:00 EST).
Washington will be eager to get back on track here after a 38-14 setback at home to Atlanta, while the Bucs are also out for some redemption after a 42-28 blowout road loss in Carolina last weekend.
Washington is averaging just 20 PPG this year, as it’s been the defense doing the “heavy lifting” most weekends, allowing a respectable 21.5 PPG. QB Alex Smith has 1,867 passing yards and a 9/3 TD/INT, while RB Adrian Peterson has 604 rushing yards on the season.
TB is averaging 28.6 PPG and it’s allowing 34.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. But the Bucs catch a break this week in my opinion facing a Redskins offense that’s still trying to find itself.
While these are normally two higher-scoring teams, I’ll point out that the Redskins have seen the total go under the number in six of their last eight as an underdog, while the Bucs have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 14 following two or more consecutive SU losses.
This number is a little high, play the under.
|11-11-18||Jaguars v. Colts -2.5||Top||26-29||Win||100||127 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.
Both teams are 3-5.
Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league.
The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records.
The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|11-10-18||California +5 v. USC||Top||15-14||Win||100||130 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on California (10:30 EST).
Both teams need one more win to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a war to the end in this one.
Cal will be hungry here to get back on track after it fell 19-13 to WSU this past weekend. A bright spot in the setback was the play of QB Chase Garbers, who had 127 yards, one TD, one INT and another 67 yards on the ground. Cal is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.9.
USC looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after it broke its two game slide last time out with a 38-21 win over Oregon State. Aca-Cedric Ware had 205 rushing yards and three TDs.
Overall the Trojans are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re conceding 27.9.
I’ll point out as well that Cal is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 14 points or less in a conference loss in its last outing, while USC is only 2-6 ATS In its last eight after scoring 37 points or more in a conference contest in its previous outing.
Ultimately I think the Golden Bears’ elite defense keeps them in this one late and as stated off the top, I’m expecting a competitive battle until the final moments.
Grab as many points as you can, play on Cal.
|11-10-18||Oregon v. Utah -3.5||Top||25-32||Win||100||122 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Utah (5:30 EST).
Both teams enter at 6-3, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done.
The Ducks broke their two-game slide with a 42-21 win over UCLA last time out, punching their sixth win of the year and eligibility. Oregon was actually out gained by UCLA 496-492, but the Ducks would benefit from recovering three turnovers.
Overall Oregon is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s led by QB Justin Herbert, who has 22 TDs and six INTs. The Ducks’ defensively allow 27.6 PPG.
The Utes average 30.3 PPG and they concede only 19.1. RB Zack Moss has 11 TD’s on the year while averaging over 121 YPG.
The Ducks bounced back after consecutive losses on the road, but I think they’ll struggle again here in this difficult venue. Utah lost starting QB Tyler Huntley last time out, but behind Moss and a 17th ranked defensive unit, I believe the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Lay the points.
|11-10-18||Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -2.5||22-52||Win||100||99 h 9 m||Show|
My 8* ACC (Coastal) Showdown is on Pittsburgh at 3;30 ET.
What has happened in Blacksburg in 2018. The Hokies opened 2-0 and were ranked 13th when they lost 49-35 at Old Dominion (as a 4-TD fave), allowing the Monarchs to run up 632 yards (Frank Beamer must be steaming somewhere). Va Tech is 4-4 overall (3-2 in the ACC Coastal) and has allowed 43.5 PPG in those four losses. In contrast, Pitt has won three of four (5-4 overall but 4-1 in ACC play) and now leads the ACC Coastal, after the team's 23-13 (at +7.5) upset at Virginia.
A number of final thoughts. Pitt who has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings with Va Tech, including seven outright upsets (note: Pitt is the small favorite here). The home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and note that the Panthers have won their last four ACC home games (Miami last year plus Ga Tech, Duke and Syra this year). Pitt ran for 254 yards in the upset of Virginia (Hall had 229) and the Panthers (averaging 230,8 YPG on the ground on the season) will go up against a Va Tech rush D that has allowed 219 or more rush yards in each of the team's last three games.
I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|11-10-18||Washington State -6 v. Colorado||31-7||Win||100||99 h 7 m||Show|
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Washington St at 3:30 ET.
Wash St fell out of the Ap top-25 after losing the Holiday Bowl 42-17 to Mich St. The Cougars were picked fifth in the Pac-12 North by some and naturally were unranked. However, the Cougars entered the poll at No. 25 after opening 5-1 and after back-to-back wins over ranked opponents Oregon and Stanford (plus last week's squeaker over Cal), Wash St is ranked No. 10. As for the Buffs, Colorado opened 5-0 to reach No. 19 in the AP poll but in a repeat of last year, have collapsed. Colorado jumped out to a 3-0 start in 2017, only to go 2-7 in Pac-12 play. The team welcomes Wash St to Boulder on a four-game slide, allowing 41 and 42 points in its last two games.
Colorado blew a 31-3 lead against Oregon St in its most recent home game, before losing 41-34 in OT. Then in last week's game at Tucson, as Arizona finished with a 566-383 yardage edge in the Wildcats' 42-34 win. The Cougars control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North and could still possiibly be in the mix for a CFP berth. Meanwhile, the Buffs are 'in the tank.' I'll back the Cougars. In last year's meeting (in Pullman), Wash St won 28-0, out-gaining the Buffs 406-174. Note that Wash St enters a PERFECT 4-0 ATS on the road in 2018. Make that 5-0, here!
|11-10-18||Ohio State v. Michigan State +3.5||26-6||Loss||-108||119 h 3 m||Show|
My 9* Champs Classic play is on Michigan State (7:00 EST).
While MSU lost some players to the NBA in the offseason, Tom Izzo still has plenty of talent in center Nick Ward (12.4 PPG, 7.1 boards) and point guard Cassius Winston (12.6 PPG, 6.9 assists).
Last year the Spartans dominated teams on the boards by over 14 per game discrepancy. They also led the country in field goal percentage offense at 49.6.
KU always has a lot of talent, but it comes in with a young group this year. Point guard Devon Dotson averaged 28.5 PPG and 5.3 assists and Providence Day School. The Jayhawks averaged 81.4 PPG last season, but the defense was nothing to write home about by allowing 71.9.
I’ll point out as well that Kansas is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 vs. the Big Ten, while Michigan State has always fared well in this match-up, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight in this series.
The Spartans boast the more experienced line-up and on Opening Night, I believe that will be the difference. Grab the points.
|11-09-18||Fresno State v. Boise State +3||Top||17-24||Win||100||106 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boise State (10:15 EST).
Fresno State is 8-1 overall and 5-0 MWC play with a one-game lead over SDSU, who it hosts next weekend. Can anyone say “look-ahead/letdown” spot?! The Bulldogs come in off seven straight wins, most recently destroying UNLV 48-3 on the road last Saturday.
Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in MWC action and it’s still in the mix as well, sitting one game back of No. 18 Utah State for the Mountain Division lead. The Broncos come in on top form as well, winners of four straight, they’ll now look to pull off the slight upset and play spoiler.
The Bulldogs look strong on both sides of the ball, as they’ve given up just three TDs and 36 points in MWC play.
Boist State QB Brett Rypien had 214 yards and a TD in last week’s win over BYU. So far he has 24 TD passes this year. The Broncos are also among the best in the nation defensively, with 12 fumbles recovered thus far.
I’ll point out as well that Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Fresno State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after five or more SU victories.
This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points.
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers -3.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||80 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).
Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday.
Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday.
Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week.
So where’s the advantage?!
Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-07-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5||Top||28-30||Win||100||54 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Miami Ohio (7:00 EST).
Ohio has won four straight and I think it’s going to suffer a letdown here against the hungry RedHawks, who enter having lost two in a row.
The Bobcats most recently enter off a 52-14 win over Ball State and a 59-14 road victory over WMU as a three-point underdog. AJ Ouellette and Maleek Irons combined for 188 yards rushing and three TDs in last week’s victory.
And while Miami Ohio has had to endure injuries this year, it’s not going down without a fight today as it still looks to become eligible. While the defense struggled in last week’s loss to the high-powered Bulls, the offense was firing on all cylinders once again and I expect the unit to bring the same intensity in this important/crucial game as well.
I’ll point out as well that the RedHawks are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 following a conference game (including 4-0 ATS this year) and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as an underdog, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range.
Grab the points and expect a “nail-biter.” Play on Miami Ohio.
|11-05-18||Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys||Top||28-14||Win||100||79 h 16 m||Show|
This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).
Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.”
Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well.
Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well.
Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range.
Grab the points.
|11-04-18||Packers v. Patriots -6.5||17-31||Win||100||133 h 4 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST).
With a chance to smash the Packers out of contention further, I think Tom Brady will get the better of Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night.
Green Bay comes in off a disheartening setback to the Rams, covering the spread, but ultimately coming up short on the SU outright upset. The Pats meanwhile beat the Chiefs at home before then crushing the Bills on the road last Monday.
Rodgers was held to just 286 passing yards and one TD last week. The Packers looked pretty good defensively, but having to perform at such a high level on back to back weeks on the road against such elite level offenses is going to be just too much for Green Bay’s unit to handle in my opinion.
The Pats’ defense looked awesome last week, holding the Bills out of the end zone. Brady continues to dominate and he’s going to have his way with this “gassed” Packers secondary in my opinion.
I’ll point out as well that New England is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 following an ATS win and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against teams with losing records, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road.
Rodgers and the Packers are in the wrong place at the wrong time in trying to hope for a bounce back. Brady is playing like a man on a mission right now and I think he can smell the blood in the water.
Lay the points.
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints UNDER 60||Top||35-45||Loss||-109||148 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Rams/Saints (4:25 EST).
What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams?
Clearly high-flying, explosive offenses would be right up at the top. LA is 8-0 and New Orleans is 6-1.
Both teams have been the “cream of the crop” this season, but I’m expecting more of a “chess match” on Sunday afternoon.
It’s hard to win on the road consistently in the NFL, but so far the Rams are a perfect 4-0 away from friendly confines. QB Jared Goff has 2,425 passing yards and a 17/5 TD/INT. The ground game has been extremely strong as well, averaging 153.1 yards per game, with Todd Gurley leading the charge with 800 yards and 11 TDs thus far. Look for the dynamic back to play a pivotal role in the Rams offense today (as he does each week.) Aaron Donald has been a standout defensively with ten sacks.
The Saints’ have won six straight QB Drew Brees has 1,990 yards and a sharp 14/1 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 108 yards per game, with Alvin Kamara leading the way with 408 yards and seven TDs.
Note that LA has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in three of four on the road already this season, while New Orleans has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU/ATS victories and in five of its last six against teams with winning records.
For all the reasons listed above, play the under.
|11-04-18||Lions v. Vikings UNDER 51||9-24||Win||100||144 h 30 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Lions/Vikes 8* (1:00 EST).
Both teams are desperate for a victory. Both teams enter off losses. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run-and-gun “shootout.”
Detroit lost 28-14 at to Seattle, while Minnesota fell 30-20 at home to the Saints.
Detroit is averaging 24.4 PPG and it’s allowing 26.6. Clearly that’s not going to get the job done going forward. QB Matt Stafford had 310 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s loss, but he also had a costly INT and a fumble. Note that the Lions traded WR Golden Tate to the Eagles this week.
The Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. QB Kirk Cousins has a 16/4 TD/INT. Despite allowing 30 points to the Saints last week, the Vikes’ strength still remains on the defensive side of the ball.
I’ll point out that Detroit has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 13 against the division and in 7 of its last ten as a fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
This number is a little high, play the under.
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns +9||37-21||Loss||-115||144 h 30 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns 8* (1:00 EST).
Kansas City has been nearly unstoppable this season, but I think the Chiefs will get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today.
KC comes in off a 30-23 home win over Detroit, while Cleveland lost 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week.
The Chiefs are averaging a whopping 36.2 PPG, but they’re allowing 25.6. Patrick Mahomes has a 26/6 TD/INT thus far.
The Browns are averaging 21.1 PPG and they’re conceding 26.2. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,471 passing yards and a positive 8/6 TD/INT. No. 1 receiver Jarvis Landry has 18 catches over his last two games.
Note though that KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Cleveland is already 3-1 ATS at home this year.
The Browns have been competitive in front of the home town crowd this season and I expect that trend to carry over here. Grab the points.
|11-04-18||Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins||Top||6-13||Loss||-133||144 h 29 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST).
These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler.
Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air.
Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall.
I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records.
Grab the points.
|11-03-18||California +10.5 v. Washington State||Top||13-19||Win||100||130 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on California (10:45 EST).
After four straight wins, I think that WSU comes in a big complacent vs. its lowly opponent, enough of a letdown anyways to let the hungry visitors sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
WSU had a one-half game lead over Washington and it’ll be difficult not to get caught “looking ahead” to The Apple Cup.
Cal’s on the edge of eligibility as well and it’ll be eager to pull off the upset. The Golden Bears haven’t been to a bowl game since losing to Air Force in the 2015 Armed Forces Bowl.
But the Golden Bears are poised for a return after last week’s 12-10 upset of then No. 12 Washington last Saturday. QB Chase Garbers returned two games ago and since then he’s gone 33 of 49 for 387 yards, three TDs and zero INTs.
It won’t be easy obviously facing Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense, but after a slim 41-38 win at Stanford last Saturday, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot
Not surprisingly, Cougars’ QB Gardner Minshew leads the nation in passing yards and is fifth in TD passes.
I’ll point out though that Washington State is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-03-18||Stanford v. Washington -9||23-27||Loss||-110||128 h 52 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Washington (9:00 EST).
Sanford comes in off a 41-38 home loss to WSU, while Washington fell 12-10 at Cal.
Note that this is a “revenge” game for Washington after Stanford posted the 30-22 home win over the Huskies last year.
Stanford comes in averaging 26.5 PPG and allowing 23.2. QB KJ Costello had 323 passing yards and four TDs but it still wasn’t enough last week. RB Bryce Love has been dealing with an ankle injury all year and he had just 71 rushing yards.
Washington is averaging 26.6 PPG and it’s conceding just 15.2. That’s eighth overall in the country. QB Jake Browning was benched and then put back in the game last week, he’d finish with 148 yards, a TD and an INT. Overall he has 2,049 passing yards and a 12/8 TD/INT.
The Huskies have given up just 25 points total the last weeks though and I think the home side’s defensive unit will be the difference maker again here today as well.
Additionally note that Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with winning road records, while Stanford is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against games with winning records.
The Cardinal have lost three of their last four and I think they stumble again here in this difficult venue. Lay the points.
|11-03-18||Alabama v. LSU +14||29-0||Loss||-109||127 h 53 m||Show|
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on LSU (8:00 EST).
I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this big game.
It’s No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 LSU from Tiger Stadium on Saturday night and in my opinion, this one’s going to end much closer than what the oddsmakers would like us to believe.
Alabama enters off a 58-21 win over Tennessee, while LSU pulled away for a convincing 19-3 victory over Mississippi State.
To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Alabama has won seven straight in the series, including a 24-10 home win last November.
The Crimson Tide are averaging 54.1 PPG and they’re conceding 15.9. QB Tua Tagovailoa had four TD passes last week and he so far has an amazing 25/0 TD/INT ratio.
LSU is averaging 30.4 PPG, but it’s conceding just 15.1. LSU relies primarily on its strong run game to generate offense.
Note though that LSU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 against the conference, while Alabama is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five when allowing 275 total yards or less in its previous game.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m expecting a competitive battle until the end. Grab the points.
|11-03-18||Syracuse -4 v. Wake Forest||41-24||Win||100||119 h 54 m||Show|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Syracuse (12:00 EST).
The Orange come in off a 51-41 home win over NC State and I expect them to carry that momentum over here.
Wake Forest enters off a 56-35 destruction of Louisville, but I believe it’ll have its hands full against this surging Syracuse offense.
Note as well that this is a revenge game for the Orange after Wake Forest recorded the 64-43 road victory last year.
Syracuse comes in averaging 43.6 PPG and conceding 28.6. QB Eric Dungey had 411 yards and three TDs last week. So far he has 1,844 yards and a strong 13/4 TD/INT.
Wake Forest gave up 532 total yards and 35 points to a weak Cardinals offend last week. So far the Demon Deacons are averaging 33.4 PPG and conceding 36.8. RB Matt Colburn had 243 yards and three TDs last week.
Note though that the Demon Deacons are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home and 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, wile Syracuse is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU win and 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.
After scoring 51 points against an elite Wolfpack offense, I have a hard time seeing the Demon Deacons slowing down this juggernaut. Lay the points.
|11-03-18||Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 60||Top||16-77||Loss||-115||114 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Louisville/Clemson (12:00 EST).
Louisville is just 2-6. In the loss to Wake Forest most recently QB Jawon Pass had 358 yards and a TD.
Clemson is 8-0. Most recently the Tigers destroyed FSU, as QB Trevor Lawrence had 314 yards and four TD’s.
The Cardinals have had a difficult schedule so far, but giving up 56 points to the Demon Deacons clearly can’t be sitting well with the team.
Clemson has to be careful though, as it will have to avoid “looking past” its lowly opponent today to its game against Boston College.
After that though it’s clear sailing for the Tigers, with games against Duke and South Carolina to finish the season. A perfect campaign is definitely plausible for Clemson, but “staying in the moment” is clearly paramount.
At two wins, Louisville won’t be invited to a bowl game this year, but it’ll be playing for pride none-the-less this afternoon.
Note that the Cards have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Clemson has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite of 31 points or more and in five of its last six home games where the total is between 56.6 and 63.
I’m banking on more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” Play the under.
|11-02-18||Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia||Top||23-13||Win||100||103 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Pittsburgh (7:30 EST).
Pittsburgh comes in off a shootout victory over Duke and I look for the Panthers to carry that offensive momentum over here against Virginia, which comes in contented off three straight victories.
The Panthers most recently pulled away for a 54-45 win over the Blue Devils. V’Lique Carter had 137 yards rushing and two TD’s, while Qadree Ollison had 149 yards and a TD as well.
The Cavs enter off the 31-21 victory over UNC, but this is s spot in which Virginia has done terribly in for bettors over the years, going just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after playing a conference game. Note that the Cavs are also just 3-4 ATS in their last seven off a win against a conference rival.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has excelled in this spot by going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think it goes right down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|11-01-18||Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||3-34||Loss||-121||81 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST).
The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend.
Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards.
The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs.
Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year.
Grab the points.
|11-01-18||Ohio v. Western Michigan -2||Top||59-14||Loss||-104||80 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET.
WMU's 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo ended the Broncos' six-game winning streak and dropped them one game back of Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC's West title. However, WMU still controls its own destiny, Win here at home vs Ohio plus Nov 13 at Ball St (currently a 3-6 team) and the Broncos will host Northern Illinois on Nov 20 with the winner qualifying for the MAC championship game.
First things first, let's talk Ohio U. The Bobacats are 5-3, including 3-1 in the MAC East, one game back of 4-0 Buffalo. However, the Bobcats have back-to-back road games here at WMU and then against the school's long-time rival, Miami-Ohio. After that, it's a home date with Buffalo, which is arguably the MAC's best team (7-1 overall). Note that Ohio is just 1-3 away from home, allowing an average of 33.3 PPG in its three losses, with its lone win coming 27-26 at Kent (go-ahead score came with about 1 1/2 minutes left), which is just 1-7 overall (0-4 in MAC play).
I’ll point out that Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while WMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after posting more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.
Bottom line is that oddsmaker' overreacted to WMU's shocking 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo and bettors have piled on. Almost ALL the money is on Ohio but I expect a comfortable Western Michigan win.
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings||30-20||Loss||-117||150 h 27 m||Show|
My 9* Sunday Night Football Magic is on the Minnesota Vikings (8:20 EST).
New Orleans enters off a tough 24-23 road win over Baltimore and I think it’ll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue and against one of the league’s other great defensive units.
Minnesota is back on track after a shaky start to the campaign, most recently destroying the Jets 37-17 on the road last weekend. These teams met in the playoffs last year and the Vikes won 29-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result here as well.
New Orleans has averaged 42.0 PPG in the early going, but the unit struggled for most of last week in Baltimore. And it’s not going to get any easier in Minnesota. The Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league, but they’re ranked 28th against the pass, which doesn’t bode well facing Kirk Cousins and a Vikes offense which has suddenly “found” itself.
Minnesota is ranked 13th in total offense and last week it gave up just 263 total yards to Sam Darnold and the Jets.
Note as well that the Vikes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with winning road records.
I think Drew Brees and the Saints finally have a letdown. Play on the Vikings.
|10-28-18||Jets v. Bears UNDER 46.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||143 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Jets/Bears (1:00 EST).
The 3-4 Jets are at Soldier Field to take on the 3-3 Bears on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium.
Last week the Jets lost to the Vikes and rookie QB Sam Darnold had 206 yards, one TD and three INTs, while Isaiah Crowell managed only 29 yards.
Last weekend the Bears fell to the Pats in a shootout, as QB Mitch Trubisky had 333 yards, two TDs and two INTs.
These two normally offensively challenged teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this year, including last weekend, which makes it important to note that the Jets have in fact seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shoot-out.” Play the under.
|10-28-18||Seahawks v. Lions -2.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-115||143 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest.
I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG.
Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT.
Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory.
Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.)
I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum.
Lay the points.
|10-28-18||Ravens v. Panthers +2||21-36||Win||100||124 h 59 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
After a big come from behind win over the Eagles on the road last weekend, I think the Panthers carry that momentum over here in this non-conference matchup at home against the Ravens, who enter off a loss to the Saints.
Baltimore’s defense has been superb this year, allowing only 14.4 PPG, but I think it comes in “gassed” and deflated this week after the late collapse last week against New Orleans. QB Joe Flacco continues to be consistently inconsistent and I don’t see that trend changing this week either in what is a very difficult road venue.
Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 269 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s come from behind victory for the ages. Newton was unbelievable, but so too was the Panthers’ defense when it needed to be down the stretch.
Note that Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Baltimore is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
For all the reasons listed above play on the Panthers.
|10-28-18||Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5||24-18||Loss||-115||140 h 39 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9:30 AM EST).
A “trip across the pond” is just what the doctor ordered for the Jags to get back on track in my opinion, while I believe this trip will have a detrimental effect on the struggling defending champions.
Philadelphia comes in off a deflating 21-17 home loss to Carolina and I believe it’s ripe for the picking here.
Jacksonville enters off a second straight loss in a 20-7 setback to Houston in its latest action.
Philadelphia has dropped three of its last four and it’s averaging 22 PPG and conceding 19.7. QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic in his time on the field with a 10/1 TD/INT over five games.
Jacksonville got off to a great start in Week 1 over the Patriots, but overall it’s averaging only 16.6 PPG. The defense has been a strength of the Jags, conceding only 20.9 PPG.
The Jags have the No. 1 pass defense in the league, which doesn’t bode well for Wentz.
Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS as an underdog in the same points range.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|10-27-18||Texas v. Oklahoma State +3||Top||35-38||Win||100||127 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Oklahoma State (8:00 EST).
While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last.
Texas held on for a 23-17 road win over Baylor last time out and I think the Longhorns finally have a letdown here in this difficult venue and after five straight victories. QB Sam Ehlinger so far has 1,534 yards passing with an 11/2 TD/INT, while completing 65.7 percent of his passes, while RB Keontay Ingram so far has 403 yards rushing. Overall Texas is averaging 30.7 PPG.
Oklahoma State is the “hungrier” team here no doubt after losing three of its last four, most recently a 31-12 setback to K-State.
Cowboys’ QB Taylor Cornelius though is a difference maker, as he already has 2,009 passing yards and a decent 16/8 TD/INT. Overall OKS is averaging 493 total yards of offense per game, along with 39.4 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while Oklahoma State is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog.
As stated off the top,while I do in fact believe the outright win is very possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Play on Oklahoma State.
|10-27-18||Boise State v. Air Force +10||48-38||Push||0||125 h 27 m||Show|
My 9* Under The Radar Rout is on Air Force (7:00 EST).
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely think that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers would like us to believe.
Boise State comes in complacent after back-to-back victories, while Air Force comes in having gone 2-1 in its last three, most recently holding on for a win over UNLV.
BSU QB Brett Rypien is still 0-2 in his last two trips to Falcon Stadium, including a 27-20 setback in November 2016.
The Air Force offense is being overlooked here in my opinion. Its still ranked just 106th in the nation, but last week QB Isaiah Sanders had four TD’s and the offense rolled up 572 yards. Sanders had 217 yards passing with a TD, along with 173 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground.
I’ll point out as well that Boise State is just 3-5 ATS in it last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 after two or more SU victories, while Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival.
Grab the points.
|10-27-18||Kentucky v. Missouri -6.5||15-14||Loss||-110||103 h 8 m||Show|
My 8* Unranked vs Ranked Money-Maker is on Missouri at 4:00 ET.
It's been a great start to the season for Kentucky, Mark Stoops' sixth year at Lexington. His teams went 12-24 (4-20 in the SEC) in his first three but he led the Wildcats to bowl games in each of the last two (Kentucky lost both bowls, finishing 7-6 each season). So, this year's 6-1 start (4-1 in the SEC!), is quite notable, as is the school's AP ranking of No. 12. Kentucky entered the top-25 back on Sep 23, for the first time since the 2007 season. Kentucky is allowing 12.8 PPG (second-best among all FBS schools) but the offense is a concern, as the Wildcats have gained just 178 yards (in a 20-14 OT loss at A&M) and 298 yards (in a 14-7 home win over Vandy) over the last two weeks
Meanwhile, Missouri snapped a four-game slide with last week's 65-33 win over Memphis. The Tigers had opened the season 3-0 and while they are just 4-3 overall, note that the team is averaging an impressive 49.0 PPG in its wins. Sure, Kentucky's D presents a formidable challenge but Barry Odom's team owns an outstanding offense (501.1 YPG & 38.6 PPG) plus has a great chance for an eight-win season with a victory here. Florida is up next but the Tigers finish with games against Vandy, Tennessee and Arkanasas. Those three schools are-currently 8-15 overall, including 1-11 in SEC play. However, first things first. Missouri enters this contest on an 11-4 ATS run in its last 15 regular season games, including 4-0 ATS at home here in 2018. There's a reason the 4-3 team is favored over the 6-1 team, ranked No. 12 in the nation. Lay it with Missouri.
|10-27-18||Georgia -7 v. Florida||Top||36-17||Win||100||122 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Georgia (3:30 EST).
A couple of 6-1 teams collide from EverBank Field in Jacksonville Florida on Saturday afternoon.
The Gators have won five in a row and they moved to 4-1 in conference play after a 37-27 victory over Vanderbilt. QB Feleipe Franks has 1,406 yards with 15 TDs and five INTs, while only completing 56.6 percent of his passes. Overall Florida is averaging 34.4 PPG.
The Bulldogs come in off their first loss of the year, a 36-16 setback to LSU. Georgia though has had its bye week to filter and process the loss and I think the extra time off will prove to be very beneficial for the Bulldogs.
With their first loss out of the way and with a full week to process and refocus, it could in fact be the best thing that could have happened for Georgia this season. So far QB Jake Fromm has 1,409 yards passing with a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the Bulldogs are averaging 39 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Florida is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 2-3 ATS in its last five games played on a neutral field, while Georgia is 5-3 ATS in it slast eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on a neutral field.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Georgia.
|10-27-18||Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6||17-31||Win||100||118 h 29 m||Show|
My 8* EYE-OPENER is on Northwestern (12:00 EST).
Northwestern won’t be going down without a fight today. The Wildcats come on on a three game win steak, most recently taking care of business in what could have been a trap game against lowly Rutgers last week.
Wisconsin comes in off a 49-20 beatdown of Illinois.
Northwestern’s defense will keep it in this one, it comes in conceding just 24.6 PPG. QB Clayton Thorson has been good as well with 1,900 passing yards and nine TDs to go along with another two rushing TDs. He does have seven INT’s and overall the offense is averaging just 24.3 PPG.
Wisconsin is allowing 20.0 PPG and it’s averaging 33.0. RB Jon Taylor has 1,109 yards rushing with eight TDs.
But note that the Badgers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six as a favorite, while Northwestern is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog.
I think Northwestern takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points.
|10-26-18||Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College||Top||14-27||Loss||-104||102 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* ACC Game Of The Month is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST).
Miami Florida comes in off a stunning loss to Virginia and suffice it to say, I think the Hurricanes take out their frustrations on the Eagles.
Last week Miami fell 16-13 on the road and it’ll now try to steamroll a BC side which comes in off a satisfying 38-20 victory over Louisville last Saturday.
The Hurricanes are making a permanent move back to QB Malik Rosier, after freshman K’Kosi Perry completely underwhelmed last week. Perry was just 3 of 6 for 20 yards with two INT’s. Rosier would come in in the second half and throw for 170 yards and an INT.
Miami’s offense has plenty of issues, but the senior Rosier should bring back some steady calm to a unit which desperately needs it. The Hurricanes defense though remains one of the best in the country, among the leaders in almost every defensive category.
BC’s offense revolves around its running attack, which averages 226.9 YPG. Last week RB David Bailey and Ben Glines combined to run for 219 yards and two TDs. But BC struggles are on the offensive side of the ball, while the defense remains a strength of the team.
I’ll point out though that Miami is 21-15 ATS in its last 26 after giving up less than 20 points in its previous game, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series overall as well.
I think the change of QB for Miami will in fact prove to be a good move andI look for the Hurricanes superior defense to then deliver the knock out blow.
Lay the points, play on Miami.
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans -7||Top||23-42||Win||100||79 h 28 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST).
These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week.
The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville.
Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times.
The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week.
Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well.
Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans.
|10-25-18||Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5||Top||51-24||Loss||-110||79 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* MAC Attack is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET.
No upsets here in my opinion, as I look for the first place WMU Broncos to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night.
Toledo comes to town off a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while Western Michigan enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action.
Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Broncos after the Rockets scored the 37-10 home win in the series last season.
Toledo is averaging 39.3 PPG and it gave up 326 passing yards to Buffalo last weekend. QB Eli Peters has a 6/2 TD/INT. Note that the defense is allowing 34.3 PPG.
WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s conceding 28.4. QB Jon Wassink already has 1,980 passing yards with a strong 16/6 TD/INT.
I’ll point out as well that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win over more than 20 points, while Toledo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.
In conclusion, this year's Toledo team hardly looks bowl-bound. The Rockets have been to 11 bowls since 2001 and to SEVEN in the previous eight seasons. However, last year's 11-3 record seems as 'far away,' as Toledo lost its second straight and dropped to 3-4 (1-2 MAC) on the season. Toledo was outgained by Buffalo 463-to-295 in yards, while committing four turnovers in the 31-17 loss. Toledo has struggled on the road this season going 0-2, while allowing 77 points, and will 'limp' into this game 0-4 ATS in its last four overall (also checks in at 0-3 ATS to begin MAC play).
Meanwhile, Tim Lester's second season at Toledo is going well. He had a tough act to follow (P.J. Fleck led WMU to a 13-1 season and a New Years' Six bowl game in 2016) but 2017's 6-6 record is a thing of the past. The Broncos opened 2018 with back-to-back losses (to Syracuse and at Michigan) but enter this contest on a six-game winning streak (4-0 start in MAC play) in which the team has averaged 41.0 PPG. WMU's balanced offense (249.4 YPG passing and 220.2 YPG rushing) will allow the Broncos to win this game with "room to spare!'
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -4||Top||20-23||Loss||-102||37 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST).
It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season.
The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr.
The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards.
Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense.
Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes.
Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion.
I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons.
|10-21-18||Bengals +6 v. Chiefs||10-45||Loss||-115||149 h 47 m||Show|
My 9* Sunday Magic is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:20 EST).
This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top and because of that, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Cincinnati will be hungry to get back into the winners circle here after a 28-21 loss at home to Pittsburgh, while KC looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its 43-40 loss in New England last Sunday night.
The Bengals are averaging 29 PPG and they’re conceding the 23rd most points. QB Andy Dalton has 1,674 passing yards and a respectable 14/7 TD/INT.
The Chiefs are averaging 35.8 PPG, but they’re 32nd in the league in total yards allowed per game.
I’ll point out as well that the Bengals are already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is still only 1-3 ATS in its last four against the AFC North.
After a hard-fought loss to the Pats, I think the Chiefs are “running on empty.” I like the Bengals high-flying offense to keep this one competitive. Grab the points.
|10-21-18||Cowboys +2 v. Redskins||Top||17-20||Loss||-115||145 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).
Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement.
Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one.
Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well.
The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers.
Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2.
The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries.
I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory.
Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game.
The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings.
Grab the points.
|10-21-18||Patriots v. Bears UNDER 49.5||38-31||Loss||-109||142 h 31 m||Show|
My 9* Total is on the under Pats/Bears (1:00 EST).
New England enters off a high-scoring shoot-out victory at home over the Chiefs and I think it’ll be more conservative here in this difficult road venue Sunday afternoon.
Chicago sports one of the best defensive fronts in the league with pass rusher Khalil Mack leading the charge.
The Pats now also have a legitimate RB threat in Sony Michel, who I expect to see a lot of action today. Last week he had 106 rushing yards with two TD’s.
Last week the Dolphins’ Brock Osweiler had 380 passing yards and two TD’s against Chicago. But performances like that have been few and far between for the Bears’ defense and a return to form in this important game and on home field is imminent in my opinion.
I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 26 as an underdog and in 11 of its last 17 at home.
For all the reasons listed above, play the under.
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs -3||Top||23-26||Push||0||142 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST).
Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts.
Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team.
For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD.
Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack.
The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here.
Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road.
I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|10-21-18||Panthers +4.5 v. Eagles||21-17||Win||100||141 h 29 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
Carolina comes in off a 23-17 loss to the Redskins on the road, while the Eagles enter off a 34-13 road win over the Giants (I had Philly in that one.)
Note that this is a revenge game for Carolina as Philadelphia won 28-23 on the road last year.
Overall the Panthers are averaging 24.2 PPG and conceding 22.8. RB Christian McCaffrey has 349 yards and he leads the fourth ranked rushing unit in the league. In last week’s loss Cam Newton was solid in defeat with 275 yards, two TD’ and an INT.
Philadelphia looked a lot better last week, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into the victory over the hapless Giants. Newton and the Panthers are an entirely different “animal.”
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was a stand-out last week with 278 yards, three TDs and no INTs. Overall Philadelphia is averaging 22.8 PPG and conceding 19.5.
I’ll point out thought agh Carolina is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Philadelphia is only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
The Panthers desperately need a road victory to keep pace with their division and I think they catch the defending champs “flat footed” here. Grab the points.
|10-21-18||Nevada v. Hawaii -3.5||Top||40-22||Loss||-105||130 h 1 m||Show|
My 10* ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT on Hawaii (11:55 EST).
Nevada is 3-4 overall and 1-2 in Mountain West play. It most recently lost its second straight, most recently a 31-27 setback to Boise State.
The Wolfpack were out gained by a whopping 506-386 margin. QB Ty Gangi was just 24 of 42 for 204 yards, two TDs and an INT.
Overall Nevada is averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 33.6.
Hawaii on the other hand is 6-2, including 3-0 in Conference action. The Warriors come in off a 49-23 non-conference loss to BYU this past Saturday (I had the Cougars in that one!) WR John Ursua had 89 yards and a TD. QB Cole McDonald has 26 TDs and three INTs on the year.
Overall Hawaii is averaging 36.5 PPG and it’s conceding 32.
I think Nevada is overmatched on both sides of the ball today. The Wolfpack also come in with zero momentum and they’ve been struggling away from friendly confines as well.
The Warriors can smell the blood in the water in my opinion (note as well that Hawaii is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 48 points or more in its previous contest.)
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|10-20-18||Ohio State v. Purdue OVER 66||Top||20-49||Win||100||99 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Ohio State/Purdue (7:30 EST).
The second ranked and unbeaten Ohio State Buckeyes have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Dwayne Haskins.
Ohio State is so far 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten, most recently pulling away for a convincing 30-14 win over Minnesota.
Haskins was 33 of 44 for 412 yards and three TDs. Coach Urban Meyer though thinks his team can play even better:
“I don’t think we played particularly well today. We’ll know more when we get a film grade, and I’ll let you know on Monday how they played,” Meyer said post-game. “We gave up three sacks. We have to keep Dwayne upright. Short yardage is not a strength. Red zone is not a strength, and running the ball is not a strength. That’s something we’ve got to get figured out.”
Purdue is 3-3 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, but it comes in on top form, having won three straight.
Most recently the Boilermakers come in off a 46-7 win over Illinois this past Saturday. QB David Blough was 25 of 36 for 377 yards and three TDs and Purdue would roll up 611 yards of total offense, including 150 rushing yards from DJ Knox.
During the win streak Blough has been unstoppable, going for 1,001 yards and seven major scores.
I’ll point out that Purdue has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 14 as a home underdog and in six of its last eight after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game, while Ohio State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight as a road favorite and in ten of its last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more.
Two teams firing on all cylinders offensively collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a “shootout.” Play the over.
|10-20-18||Akron -4 v. Kent State||24-23||Loss||-108||122 h 32 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Akron 8* (3:30 EST).
Akron comes in hungry after dropping its third straight, most recently a 24-6 setback at Buffalo last weekend. A date against hapless Kent State is just what the doctor ordered for the Zips to get back on track though, as the Golden Flashes come in having lost five straight.
And if recent history is any precedence, then Akron has to be liking its chances today as it’s taken three straight in the series, including a 24-14 victory last season.
Akron is averaging 23.2 PPG and it’s conceding only 26.4. QB Kato Nelson struggled in last week’s loss, going just 12 of 29 for 115 yards and an INT. Overall though he has 980 yards passing, seven TDs and six INTs.
Kent is averaging only 23 PPG and it’s conceding a whopping 36.6. QB Woody Barrett has 1,560 passing yards, to go along with seven TDs and eight INTs.
Akron has its issues, but this a big opportunity which I believe it will make the most of. I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Akron is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|10-20-18||SMU v. Tulane -7||27-23||Loss||-102||122 h 32 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Tulane (8*) (3:30 EST)
This is an important game. Houston is going to likely win the conference, but the victor of this contest will be solidly in the second position.
To say this is a “revenge” game for Tulane though would be a bit of an understatement, as SMU has won six of the last seven in the series.
SMU has had a week of to ponder its 48-20 beatdown at the hands of UFC. Overall the Mustangs are allowing 39.7 PPG.
Last week Tulane fell 37-21 to Cincinnati (who has since cracked the Top 25). Overall the Green Wave are averaging 379 YPG.
I’ll point out though that SMU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye, while Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 36 points or more in its previous contest.
Despite some of the QB issues that Tulane is going through, I think the Green Wave finds a way to get the job done at home in this crucial contest.
Lay the points.