My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 4:00 ET.

Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut  for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs). Florida also gained 196 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 395 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) but scoring 35 points doesn't help much when one's team allows 51!

The Rebels now head out on the road to play at Kentucky, which lost  29-13 last Saturday but played a very competitive game in losing at then-No. 8 Auburn.  The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like  a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards, so expect the Ole Miss offense to have a tougher time here on the road than it did last week at home.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3–only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the Regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish.

Trey Wilson started at QB for Kentucky last week and threw for 239 yards (one TD / one INT), with WR Ali catching nine balls for 98 yards, while RB Smoke ran for 62 yards on just seven attempts (8.9 YPC). However, three TOs did in the Wildcats. Kentucky should fare MUCH better against an Ole Miss defense which looked pretty helpless against Florida. Ole Miss enters having lost SEVEN straight on the road, with the Rebels last road win coming at Arkansas back in the 2018 season (note: the Razorbacks have currently lost 20 straight SEC games). The Ole Miss defense has allowed an average off 32.4 PPG in that seven-game road slide, while Kentucky plays its home opener having gone 12-3 SU at home the last two seasons. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

COVID-19 has surely impacted the Memphis season as the Tigers opened their 2020 season back on Sep 5 with a 37-24 home win over Arkansas St (Tigers we favored by just under three TDs). The program has since had to pause activities and cancel games against Houston and UTSA, so the team's second game of the current season (its conference-opener at SMU) is being played almost a FULL month after its season-opener (unprecedented break between Games 1 and 2?). Unlike Memphis, Sonny Dykes' SMU Mustangs are 3-0, after a 50-7 rout of Stephen F. Austin last week.

The Tigers lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida St, right after Memphis won the AAC championship game. That victory gave the Tigers a 12-1 record and earned the school its first-ever New Year's Six bowl berth (lost 53-39 to Penn St). Taking over for Norvell is Ryan Silverfield, whose only game as a head coach was last year's Cotton Bowl. He gets credit for keeping QB Brady White and WR Demonte Coxie at Memphis. White threw for 4,014 yards (454 vs Penn St in the Cotton Bowl), becoming only the second Memphis QB to do so. He had 33 TDs and only 11 INTs, with Coxie as his main target (76 catches / 1,276 yards / 9 TDs). What Memphis didn't count on was RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had 1,459 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) as a freshman plus added 51 catches for 610 yards with three more TDs, to opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. White completed 27 of 37 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State and  has passed for more than 7,500 yards to go along with 63 TD in his career at Memphis. Coxie had eight catches (one TD) vs Ark St but the star was TE Dykes, who caught 10 passes and two TDs, coming back off an injury that forced him to miss almost all of 2019.

SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three year s at La Tech, before getting the head coaching jog at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of  2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs He's off to a good start this season, completing 64 of 94 passes for 852 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. WRs Roberson (17 catches / 3 TDs), Gray (8 catches / 19.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and Rice (13 catches / 18.5 yPC) plus TE Granson (eight catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 26.7 YPG (6.0 YPC), led by Bentley (2380 yards / 10.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and McDaniel (293 yards on 5.0 YPC).

Why not SMU as a small home dog? After all, SMU has already played three games and Memphis head coach Silverfield admitted the team will have to rotate more players in and out in all three phases of the game. He added that "a majority" of his team is back and he is confident the players are in a good spot to play. "We feel like we are getting back where we need to be," he said. "Still not at full strength, nor will we be at kickoff. But we are getting to where we need to be to where we feel comfortable having normal practices." As for SMU's Dykes, he told MustangVision that it will be hard to get a read on Memphis given its layoff, but he pointed out that the Tigers have won a lot of games over the last three years and that they will be ready to play. "They may not have played for a while, but those guys have a lot of skins on the wall," Dykes said. "They have won a lot of football games."

In fact, Memphis has "won a lot of football games" against SMU. Last year's 54-48 win was not as close as the final score, as SMU scored two TDs (plus converted both two-point tries) in the games' final eight minutes (Memphis led, 54-32). Let me add that the Tigers' win in 2019 was their SIXTH straight over SMU, including wins of 28-18, 51-7 and 48-10 in Dallas. Note that while RB Gainwell opted-out, RB Clark gained 105 yards (5.3 YPC) in the Tigers' game vs Ark St, leading the way for Memphis to rush for 222 yards on 4.7 YPC (team averaged 186.7 YPG with Gainwell). That Ark St team Memphis beat 37-24 went into Kansas St and beat the Wildcats 35-31 as a two-TD underdog the very next week. Ask Oklahoma if Kansas St is any good? Meanwhile, SMU's 3-0 start has come against a 1-3 Texas St team (3-9 in 2019), 1-1 North Texas (4-8 in 2019) and SF Austin, an FCS school. The "price is right" for a SEVENTH straight win for Memphis over SMU, which practically guarantees a cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field last Saturday with a home contest against Kansas. Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in a 47-14 home win over Kansas. Baylor takes to the road this Saturday to face on Big-12 rival West Va, which has opened 1-1 after losing 27-13 at then-No. 15 Oklahoma State last weekend. West Virginia fell behind 17-0 in the first half and managed just one TD (Winston Wright's 70-yard scoring pass from QB Jarret Doege).

Baylor will need MUCH more from Brewer in this one, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 years the last two seasons with a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. The running game totaled 203 yards on 4.7 YPC, besting last season's average of 166.4 YPG. However, let's remember Baylor was hosting Big-12 doormat Kansas, which fell to 6-84 in conference play since 2010 (note: Jayhawks are also 2-52 SU on the road in that span against all opponents). Gaining just 352 yards against a Kansas defense that allowed 475.2 YPG last season (122nd), is NOT acceptable. Baylor's defense, which returned just two starters, wasn't tested by an inept Kansa team but that WON'T be the case against MOST (all?) of its other conference foes.

West Va QB Jarrett Doege was sacked five times vs Okla St but still managed to throw for 285 yards (70-yard TD pass to Wright, helped). West Va had a non-existent rushing game last season (973.3 YPG ranked 128th of 130 teams) but Leddie Brown ran for 104 vs Okla St and has 227 yards in the team's first two games. West Va did allow two, 100-yard runners against the Cowboys but overall, held an Okla St team that averaged 453.9 YPG last season to a modest 342 yards.

These schools have met as conference foes eight times and Baylor is 0-4 SU in Morgantown. Brewer passed for 277 yards and two TDs in 2019's 17-14 home win over West Va but back in 2018 at Morgantown, threw three INTs in a 58-14 loss. Note that while Baylor flourished with an 11-3 season in 2019, West Va was just 5-7. Yet, the Mountaineers held Baylor to season-lows in FDs (17) and total yards (287) in that three-point loss. Baylor expects to end its 0-4 run in Morgantown but as Mick Jagger once sang, "You Can't Always Get What You Want!" Home dog wins outright.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of  18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards  / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football?

The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win.

It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG).

The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. 

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. 

Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field.

Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up.

Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory.

I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Featured Sunday Total of the Week is on TB/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

Obviously, one of the NFL's biggest storylines entering the 2020 season (not counting COVID-19) was Tom Brady leaving New England (after some moderate success) and landing in Tampa Bay with the Bucs. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp were that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He also brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). However, Brady's been pretty mediocre, throwing for just 456 yards after two games with as many INTs (three) as TD passes (three). Going back to last season, Brady enters this contest having thrown interceptions in each of his last four starts, three of them being Pick-6s! As for Gronk, it would be a HUGE understatement to say he is off to a slow start in Tampa. He has just two catches for 11 yards and was held without a catch last week for just the FIFTH time in his 117-game career.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. The Broncos were outplayed by Tennessee in Week 1 but lost just 16-14 when Gostkowski missed three FGs and an extra-point. In Week 2 at Pittsburgh, Drew Lock went down with a shoulder) injury but Jeff Driskel (256 passing yards with two TDs and one INT) led an unlikely comeback despite taking six sacks and absorbing 17 hits. Denver trailed by 14 points at halftime and by 12 in the fourth quarter but was 15 yards away from a stunning upset before Edmunds came off the edge and sent Driskel to the turf one last time.

Looking at this contest, I see a much higher scoring game than the total indicates. Brady OVERDUE for a "big game," as his Gronk. As for RB Leonard Fournette, who signed with the Bucs earlier this month, he ran for 103 yards in Week 2 (on 8.6 YPC) with two TDs. Fournette may also just remember running for 225 yards on 29 carries in the Jaguars' 26-24 win at Denver a year ago. Yes, Jeff Driskel gets his first start for Denver and is seeking just his SECOND career win, which would be only 248 fewer than Brady. Fans are absent (for the most part) in 2020 but the Broncos may have a big home-field edge with teams coming in even later and having no time to adjust to the elevation. Denver is on a 9-2-1 ATS a home dog, so don't be surprised if they are in this all the way. What's more, Driskel is going against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 28.1 PPG. last season plus its pass D allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. Tampa's D may be slightly better than last year's unit but not MUCH better. I expect BOTH Brady AND Driskel to play well. This one is Goin' OVER!

Good luck...Larr

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans.

Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era,  at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games.

Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice.

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to  WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019).

Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Big Ben missed all but SIX quarters of the 2019 season with an elbow injury that required surgery. Pittsburgh waa forced to use two QBs, Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who had never appeared in an NFL game. The Pittsburgh offense scored only 13 offensive TDs in the team's final 10 games and were the only NFL team to NOT score 30 points in any game. Big Ben is back healthy in 2020 and Pittsburgh has opened 2-0.

While the Steelers failed to make the playoffs for a second straight season in 2019, the Houston Texans went 10-6 in winning the AFC South for the FOURTH time in the last five seasons. The Texans beat the Buffalo Bills in a wild card game and then jumped out to a 24-0 lead over the KC Chiefs in the Divisional Round, before the Mahomes-led Chiefs came back to win 51-31. The Texans and Titans were expected to go head to-head this season in the AFC South but while Tennessee has opened 2-0, Houston has started 0-2.

QB Deshaun Watson signed 4 a four-year, $177 million contract extension with the Texans on September 5 but has done little in the first two losses. He's thrown for 528 yards with two TDs and two INTs for a QB rating of 87.1. RB David Johnson showed signs of returning to previous form in Week 1 (77 yards on 7.0 YPC) but was held to just 34 yards on 11 carries (3.4 YPC) in Week 2. WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone (104 catches with seven TDs last season) but Watson still has an excellent set of receivers in WRs Cooks, Fuller and Cobb plus TEs Akins and Fells. Defensively, Houston has struggled, allowing 33.5 PPG. However, that may just have something to do with having had to face KC and Baltimore in the season's first two weeks (more later).

Big Ben has returned with vengeance, completing 68.5% for 540 yards with five TDs and one INT (107.1 QB rating). RB Snell was the star in Week 1 (113 yards) but Connor was healthier by Week 2 and he was the featured back with 106 yards. Pittsburgh was able to go "Back to Future" with its defense in 2019, reminding some of the old "Steel Curtain!" Pittsburgh was fifth in total yards allowed in 2019 (304.1 YPG) and was T-5th in points allowed (18.9 PPG). The team's 20 INTs was 2nd-best in the NFL and its 54 sacks ranked 1st. Pittsburgh has opened the current season allowing 18.5 PPG (T-5th) on 305.0 YPG (T-2nd), including allowing 66.5 YPG rushing to rank 1st.

However, one MUST consider the fact that the Steelers are 2-0 with wins over the Giants and Broncos, who are BOTH 0-2. Meanwhile, the Texans have faced the NFL's two-best teams in 2020, the defending champion Chiefs and the Ravens, who were the NFL's best regular season team with a 14-2 record last season. Don't be too quick to 'dish' Watson, as he's the first player to reach 10,000 yards passing (10,244) and 1,000 yards rushing (1,277) through his first 40 games in NFL history (not bad, huh?). Watson isn't exactly ready to panic with his team potentially facing its second 0-3 start in three years. "That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind," Watson said. "Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now." I expect an outright Houston win but that doesn't mean I'm NOT taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. 

The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson).

Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and  after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation).

NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET

David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' 

The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory.

Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone.

Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019.

Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Tulane/Southern Miss Over at 2:30 ET.

Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marks the first time Tulane has posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. QB Justin McMillan could be erratic but he passed for 2,444 yards (17 TDs / 10 INTs) and was the team's leading rusher with 745 yards (4.4 YPC / 12 TDs). The bottom line is this, he led Tulane to 33.1 PPG on 449.3 YPG, as both totals rank third-best in school history for a single season. New QB Keon Howard is off to a poor start, completing just 43.6% for 299 yards without a TD and one INT in Tulane's 1-1 start. The Good news on offense has been redshirt freshman Tyler Spears running for 224 yards on 7.7 YPC. Tulane's first game saw them win 27-24 at South Alabama but then lose last Saturday at home to Navy. Tulane led that game 24-0 at the half, before Navy scored the game's final 27 points with the game-winning 33 -yard FG coming at 0:00!

Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old.

The Golden Eagles had seemingly bounced back with strong effort last week at home vs La Tech, as they led 27-10 towards the end of the third quarter. However, La Tech drove 74 yards in 17 plays to score the winning TD with 14 seconds to go, stealing a 31-30 win. QB Jack Abraham has been very good, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 578 yards with three TDs and just one INT. However, the running game is non-existent, averaging 112.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 31.5 PPG on YPG 453.5 YPG.

These two schools met in last season's Armed Forces Bowl, with Tulane winning 30-13. Sure, Southern Miss is playing with revenge but it' hard to trust this year's team at the moment. Then again, Tulane clearly needs to bounce-back from its disastrous second-half collapse against Navy. The Southern Miss defense is clearly vulnerable and Tulane QB Howard is a Southern Miss transfer, who HAS to be looking forward to playing against his former team. As noted above, Southern Miss QB Abraham has looked sharp and I'm expecting a high-scoring game. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET.

Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener.

This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19).

ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards.

We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back.

With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET.

The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami.

Pitt  head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation.

That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET.

Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.

The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997.

I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.'

The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93  yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win.

As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,.

I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost).

Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day.

Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards.

Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25.

Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Ten Over at 1:00 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Wednesday afternoon Wednesday 

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

The Cowboys arrived in LA for Week 1's SNF encounter with the Rams with a new head coach for the first in a decade. Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the 2010 season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. The Rams finished with a 422-380 edge in yards, as the Cowboys were held to to just THREE points in SIX, second-half possessions in a 20-17 loss. The Atlanta Falcons opened their 2020 season at home vs the Seahawks, coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Atlanta outgained Seattle 506-383 in total yards but would end up on the short end of a 38-25 final.

"Matty Ice" (what a nickname for a QB who has never won ANYTHING) threw for 450 yards (2 TDs / 1 INT), as three receivers topped 100 yards (Jones had 157, Ridley 130 and both TDs and Gage had 114). Newly acquired RB Todd Gurley ran for only 56 yards on 14 carries. The defense was helpless against Russell Wilson, who went 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1).

Dak Prescott didn't have a poor game (25 of 39 for 266 yards with one TD and no INTs) plus Elliott ran for 96 yards (4.4 YPC). Amari Cooper had 10 catches and highly-touted rookie CeeDee Lamb had five catches for 59 yards. However, Dallas has to find a way to get into the end zone more frequently, with its offensive talent. The Cowboys are back in "Jerry's House" in Week 2 but they're on a 2-8-1 ATS run as non-division home favorites. Then again, the Falcons just 5-16 ATS over their last 21 non-division contests. Throw in the fact that Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road openers and it's Dallas which avoids an 0-2 start in 2020 with a "comfortable" win. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio).

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions.

Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards.

The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* ACC Game of the Year is on NC State at 8:00 ET.

Dave Clawson is in his seventh season at Wake Forest. He opened with back-to-back season of 3-9 but has led Wake to four straight bowls the last four years 30-22 overall0, winning three bowls in a row before last year's 27-21 loss to Michigan St. A fifth straight winning season (and bowl trip) may be asking "too much" for the Demon Deacons in 2020, as Clawson unexpectedly had to replace QB Jamie Newman (2,868 passing yards with 26 TDs and 574 rushing yards with 6 TDs), who is a graduate-transfer at Georgia. The multi-tool QB salvaged Wake's 2018 season and led Wake to a 7-1 start in 2019, before injuries set in. The Demon Deacons routed NC State 44-10 on Nov 2 and at 7-1, were ranked 19th in the AP poll. However, Wake stumbled to a 1-4 finish. Wake was originally expected to open  at Old Dominion and follow with home games against Appalachian St and Villanova but COVID-19 had other ideas. Wake instead opened against No. 1 Clemson last Saturday and offered little resistance in a 37-13 loss. Clemson 'called off the dogs' with a 37-3 lead and 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points allowed Wake to earn (?) a 'backdoor cover!'

Wake travels to Raleigh on Saturday night to take on NC State, which has yet to play a game. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's current 2020 schedule. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-20. NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters return on offense, so expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve  in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18).

Sam Hartman replaces Newman at QB for Wake but he was just 11 of 21 for 182 yards against Clemson and when he was in, Wake accounted for just THREE points. Wake's running game gained just 37 yards on 34 attempts and the passing game was severely hampered when WR Sage Surratt (66 catches for 9 TDs before getting hurt in the team's ninth game and winding up with shoulder surgery), "opted out" prior to the season. 

True, NC State St is "no Clemson" but the home team has dominated this series the last two-plus decades, going with a 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Last year's game was a "no contest," as Wake won at home, 44-10. However, Newman  had 307 yards passing and rushing, while accounting for five TDs (3 TDP and two rushing scores). As noted above, he's now at Georgia. NC St opened last season 4-0 at home but was never the same after that 44-10 loss at Wake. The Wolfpack lost their final three home games but all came vs bowl-bound opponents Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Prior to NC St's home loss to Clemson on Nov 16 of 2019, the Wolfpack were on a 15-2 SU run at home,  Note that the last time NC St hosted Wake was in 2018 and the Wolfpack were 19 1/2-point favorites. That makes Saturday's pointspread (I got NC St minus-2) look pretty tempting. "Big Play" here on the Wolfpack!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Louisville at 7:30 ET.

Mark Richt's first season at Miami was 2016 .The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after a 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin in 2018. His DC Manny Diaz had already moved on to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Miami struggled for most of 2019, going just 6-6 in the regular season. The 'Canes then lost 14-0 to La Tech in the Independence Bowl, as the Bulldogs became the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. Pretty sure Miami hasn't included that factoid on its resume.Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St.

Both schools have opened 1-0, as Miami won its 14th straight home opener 31-14 over UAB and Louisville won at home over Western Ky, 35-21.The Hurricanes lost several players to either graduation, the NFL or opting out due to coronavirus concerns. That group included leading rusher Deejay Dallas, leading receiver K.J. Osborn, leading tackler Shaq Quarterman, top cornerback Trajan Bandy and the leader in sacks Greg Rousseau, with 15.5. However, in D'Eriq King (a Houston graduate transfer), the 'Canes have an electric dual-threat QB, King passed for 144 yards and one TD and added 83 rushing yards and another TD. That performance extended his active NCAA-record streak of 16 consecutive games with at least one TD pass and one TD run. Carson stepped in as the team's featured back and gained 134 yards (7.9 YPC) while scoring two TDs. Miami's known for its "D" and the team's "stop-unit" didn't disappoint, holding the Blazers to 14 points of 285 yards.

Speaking of "playing defense," Louisville allowed three TDs in its win over Western Ky but one needs to look MUCH deeper than the final score to objectively judge the team's defensive effort. The Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western KY's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the Cardinals had a nice effort. They had four plays of more than 40 yards and junior QB Micale Cunningham completed 19 of 34 passes for 343 yards with three TDs and just one interception. WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards. However, with extra attention being paid to Atwell, fellow WRs Dez Fitzpatrick and Braden Smith each had 110 yards in receptions (four catches each, averaging 27.5 per!). RBs Hawkins and Hall combined for 137 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 YPC.

Miami rolled at home last year 52-27 over Louisville but the Cards' 2019 defense allowed 33.4 PPG (109) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). This season's D was terrific last week (see above) and while Miami's "O," led by King will be a tougher assignment, I 'love' the "revenge angle" in this matchup. After all, Miami is just 4-10 SU in road and neutral site games the last two seasons (including 0-2 in bowls, losing by a combined scores of 49-3). Miami will basically have to win here to cover and I'll take Satterfield over Diaz ANYTIME on the sidelines!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Southern Miss at 7:30 ET.

La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is entering his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marked the SIXTH consecutive season in which he'd led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH one. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. La Tech was supposed to open at Baylor last Saturday but that game was  postponed due to COVID-19. That makes this Sep 19 game at Southern Miss the school's 2020 opener.

Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was  no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. 

La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1973. Coming anywhere near 10 wins this year will be near-impossible, as the Bulldogs are currently scheduled to play just 11 games, assuming there are no more COVID issues. QB J'Mar Smith will be sorely missed, as he threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement will be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. FIVE of the team's top-six pass catchers return but none had more than Smoke Harris' 47 catches and he averaged just 7.4 YPC. Senior RB Henderson is back and he ran for 1,062 yards (5.6 YPC) and 15 TDs last season. However, the defense returns just TWO starters (nine of top-12 tacklers are gone) from a unit that allowed 21.8 PPG (30th) on 377.7 YPG (53rd).

The bright spot in Southern Miss' season-opening loss was QB Jack Abraham, who completed 69% of his passes and threw for 314 yards in 32 attempts without an INT (also didn't throw a TD). The running game remains a mess, as the team averaged just 117.5 YPG (121st) last season and was able to garner only 95 yards (2.6 YPC) against South Alabama. The defense can't be as bad as it showed vs South Alabama and I expect a big bounce-back effort by the Golden Eagles.

Southern Miss has been to 18 bowls from 1997-through 2019 (a 23-year span) and while I wouldn't typically play a team right after its head coach resigned, I almost have to believe that the players will rally around the 30-year-old Walden. Abraham had a good game passing back on Sep 3 (see above) and should 'love' going up against a La Tech defense that returns just two starters, having lost all four starting DBs. Southern Miss has had two-weeks-plus to 'stew' over that loss to South Alabama and I expect at least a two-TD margin of victory over La Tech, playing its first game of 2020. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET.

The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!).

Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a  seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons.

Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points.

The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs

These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed  by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!).

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013.

Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets.

Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season  in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached.

Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake  and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense.

The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke.

The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs.

The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see.

The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game.

These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET.

This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs.

The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016).

Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens will be forever be linked in NFL history. Cleveland owner Art Modell announced he was relocating the Browns to Baltimore and after negotiations and legal battles, an agreement was reached where Modell would be allowed to take his personnel to Baltimore as an expansion franchise (Ravens) but would leave Cleveland the Browns' colors, logos and heritage for a reactivated Browns franchise that would take the field no later than 1999. The Browns were reactivated in 1999 but the Browns have produced just TWO winning seasons in these last 21 years, with ONE postseason appearance (2002). Meanwhile, the Ravens were able to post their first winning season in 2000 (team's fifth year), capping the season by winning Super Bowl XXXV. John Harbaugh was given his first-ever NFL head coaching job in 2008 and led the Ravens to the postseason in each of his first five seasons. The number five was again 'magic,' as Baltimore won its second Super Bowl in the 2012 season (SB XLVII).

The Browns open the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). As for the Ravens, Harbaugh is still around, entering his 13th season as Baltimore's head coach.

QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looking promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!).

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPA / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG).

The Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. Jackson passed for 365 yards (59 attempts!) and ran for 143 yards but his three TOs (two INTs) was the 'story' of the game (along with Tennessee RB Henry shredding the Baltimore D for 195 rushing yards). I expect the Ravens to be highly motivated in Week 1 and the Ravens should also well-remember that the Browns won here in Baltimore 40-25 (as 7.5-point dogs) in Week 4 of the 2019 season. That was Baltimore's LAST loss of the regular season, as the Ravens won their final 12 games, including a Week 16 rematch in Cleveland by the score of 31-15 (as 9.5-point favorites). DO NOT ignore the fact that the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018, but then resuming their losing ways with a 43-13 home loss in Week 1 of 2019 against the Titans. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "Featured" Total of the Week is on NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East.

The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020.

Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota.

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions.

Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Kansas at 10:00 ET.

Coastal Carolina visited Lawrence last season on Sep 7 (2nd of the season for both schools) with the Chanticleers upsetting the Jayhawks, 12-7 as a seven-point underdog. It was hardly a classic, as neither team gained 300 yards (Coastal outgained Kansas 291-280). Kansas took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on a 41-yard TD run but NEVER scored again. CJ Marable caught a 20-yard TD pass in the second quarter for Coast Carolina (miss PAT) and then added a short TD run midway into the 3rd quarter (failed two-point conversion). Marable finished with 148 rushing and scored both TDs for the Chanticleers. There was no scoring the rest of the way, as Coastal Carolina held on for the five-point win, despite THREE missed FGs by PK Massimo Biscardi.

Coastal Carolina was scheduled to host Kansas on Sep 26 of 2020 but COVID-19 has played havoc with the schedules of schools that are playing this season. The two schools kept the meeting but Coastal Carolina has to return to Lawrence again, for this meeting. That HAS to be an advantage for Kansas, which has suffered through a decade of mediocracy fostered by David Beaty, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Les Miles went 112-32 (.778) in 11 full seasons as LSU's head coach (was fired after a 2-2 start in his 12th year), leading the Tigers to 11 bowls and two national championship games (won it all in 2007 but his 13-0 team lost to Alabama in 2011). Miles is tasked with changing the losing culture at Lawrence and said after last year's loss to Coastal Carolina that it was a game the Jayhawks should have won. "I'm not happy," Miles said. "This is not how I saw it going. This is not how our team saw it going. Our guys played with their hearts on their sleeves and did everything they could possibly do to win this game."

RB C.J. Marable (1085 YR on 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs / 38 catches with three TDs) will again be the focal point of the Chanticleers' offense plus benefits from four OL returning. Payton and Carpenter both made starts at QB last season and while both return, redshirt freshman McCall may push for a starting job. Coastal Carolina allowed 30.5 PPG (85th) and the defense may not be any better in 2020.

Kansas sure has its weaknesses but junior RB Pooka Williams (1,061 YR / 5.3 YPC) is KU's first offensive player to earn 1st-team All-Big 12 status in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Stanley (24 TDs / 11 INTs) graduated and senior MacVittle (who red-shirted LY) is expected to play. The good news is that the team's top-two receivers return in Parchment (65 catches / 7 TDs) and Robinson (45 catches / 8 TDs).The Kansas D ranked 120th in scoring D (36.1 PPG) and 122nd in total D (475.2 YPG), which is fairly typical of that unit's performance the last decade.

Most close to program say that Kansas is probably two recruiting classes away from respectability but "The Hat" knows how to coach and knows more than a little about "revenge games." The Jayhawks will play only 10 games in 2020 and the school's nine-game conference schedule begins in two weeks (Sep 26). A loss here would be a devastating way to open. I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Western Ky at 8:00 ET.

Western Ky began the transition to NCAA Division I FBS as an Independents, in 2007 and was considered a reclassifying school for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to NCAA rules. Western Ky QB legend Willie Taggart returned to his alma mater as head football coach in 2010. The Hilltoppers went 2-10 in their first year under Taggart but he is credited with getting WKU's football program back on track after posting back to back 7–5 regular seasons in 2011 and 2012. The school wasn't invited to a bowl in 20011 but in 2012 the school's first FBS-level bowl game invite came the Little Caesar's Bowl. Taggart left WKU to accept the head football coach position at South Florida, prior to that bowl contest. Bobby Petrino stayed for one season but then Jeff Brohm posted an outstanding 30–10 record from 2014-16. He left for Purdue and Mike Sanford would last two disappointing seasons. Tyson Helton got the job for 2019 and he won C-USA Coach of the Year (9-4 season, including a bowl win).

Louisville has rich FB tradition but after Lamar Jackson left for the NFL, the team flopped to 2-10 in 2018. However, Scott Satterfield left Appalachian St and restored some glory to program, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St..15 starters return, including QB MicaIe Cunningham (2,065 passing yards & 22-5 ratio plus 482 YR / 6 TDs), leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 RY / 5.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and WR Tutu Atwal (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs). The defense HAS to get better, as Louisville allowed 33.4 PPG (109th) on 439.9 YPG (102nd).

Western Ky has 16 starters back including NINE from a defense that allowed just 20.1 PPG (22nd) on 335,5 YPG (24th). The unit's top-6 top tacklers are back. RB Gaej Walker is back after gaining 1,208 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs. Starting at QB will be Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome (7 career starts). These teams met in Nashville last season, with Louisville winning handily, 38-21. However, Western KY finished the season on an 8-2 run after that loss, including a 23-20 bowl win over Western Michigan. What has me playing on the Hilltoppers here is that they went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season, giving them a two-year run of 8-1-1 as road underdogs. That's an 89% winning situation. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Charlotte/App St Over at 12:00 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Wednesday evening.

My 10* Game of the Week is on Navy at 8:00 ET.

The 2020 college football season will surely be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its original schedule have decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and has scrambled to patch together a 2020 schedule that at the moment contains just EIGHT games, only two of which were on the school's original schedule (Houston and North Alabama, an FCS school). The first two games on BYU's 2020 schedule are contests against two of the nation's three service academies. The Cougars open Labor Day evening at Navy and play their second game Sep 16 at Army.

BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. Would BYU 'take back' that contract extension if it could?

Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. Perry is gone but senior Dalen Morris takes over triple-option and had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons. Navy returns its top-three RBs, including FB Jamlae Carothers (734 yards on 6.6 YPC and 14 TDs) and will once again feature a 'deep' group of RBs. Defensively, Navy was greatly improved last season, as after allowing 33.5 PPG on 426 YPG in 2018, the team allowed just 22.3 PPG last season (skewered by allowing 52 in a loss at Notre Dame) on 314 YPG (ranked 16th among FBS schools).

Getting back to BYU, the Cougars dealt with numerous injuries to last season's offense, including to starting QB Zach Wilson. Wilson was recovering from shoulder surgery early in the 2019 season but is healthy and set to go. All five OL starters return but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019 (team averaged just 159.1 YPG on the ground). Three standout WRs all graduated. but the good news is that TE Mark Bushman decided to return for his senior year. He had 44 catches last season with four TDs (has 125 catches in his career). BYU's defense allowed a credible 25.5 PPG last season and will return seven starters.

BYU's 'patchwork' 2020 schedule opens this cross-country trip to Annapolis and the game was not announced until August 6th, the Cougars have not had a lot of time to prep for Navy’s triple option. As MTSU learned on Saturday at Army, that can be 'deadly!' Now BYU is a MUCH better team than MTSU but also, Navy is a MUCH better team than Army. no 42-0 blowout here but at this 'price,' Navy is my Game of the Week!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NCAAF 2020 Opener is on Army at 1:30 ET.

Middle Tenn St was expected to open its season Sep 5 at Duke, coming off a 4-8 season. 2019 was an aberration for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU had been bowl-eligible in NINE of the last 10 seasons. However, in the era of COVID-19, plans tend to change more often than not. The Blue Raiders will instead open their 2020 season by traveling to West Point to take on the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army is coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-8 season in 2019 (more later) but talk about changing plans! Of the first SEVEN schools on Army's original 2020 schedule (from Sep 4 through Oct 24) the Black Knights won't play a SINGLE one. The biggest 'loss' being Oklahoma's first visit to Michie Stadium (on Sep 26) since 1946 being canceled. And so it goes. Army does have a 12-game season scheduled, beginning with a first-ever meeting with MTSU.

MTSU's Rick Stockstill enters his 15the season in Murfreesboro and he's led the Blue Raiders to EIGHT bowl games, although the school has gone just 2-6 SU and ATS. QB Asher O’Hara was an adequate passer last season (62.7% / 2,616 YP / 20-8 ratio) and he was also MTSU's best runner. He gained 1,00 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring nine TDs. The problem was, NO other RB reached 300 yards rushing. MTSU added two Power-5 transfers at the RB position but both opted out. Defense has never been a MTSU strength and after allowing 29.9 PPG last season, maybe it's a good thing that only THREE starters return.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, left the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018.

However, much like MTSU, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season.

Army has 13 starters back, including SEVEN from a defense that allowed 23.0 PPG on 342.0 YPG. Starting QB Hopkins is gone but both Jabari Lewis and Christian Anderson made starts last year. Lewis is the likely starter, after making five starts. Army's rushing attack averaged 297.2 YPG last season on 5.2 YPC and should give the MTSU defense fits, as Stockstill's "D" hasn’t faced the option since a 24-6 loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl (note" Navy ran for 366 yards on 5.5 YPC). Making matters worse, this trip to West Points wasn’t added to MTSU's schedule until August 10. With COVID-19 limiting all teams prep time last spring and this summer, properly preparing for the option seems like 'a bridge too far.' Don't forget, MTSU went 0-6 SU on the road last season, losing on average by 16.8 PPG. I'm expecting a COMFORTABLE Army win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month (Super Bowl LIV) is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended the regular season on a 12-game winning streak to enter as the AFC's No. 1 seed at 14-2. San Francisco survived in Week 17 at Seattle, holding on (by inches) for a 26-21 win at Seattle to finish 13-3 and earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. If the two No. 1 seeds had advanced to the Super Bowl, we were looking at a replay of Super XLVII (nicknamed the Harbaugh Bowl), when Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 to win the 2012 title. However, the Ravens were upset by the Titans, so on Championship Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl I loomed, if KC could win (as expected) over Tennessee and the Packers could upset the 49ers. KC held up its end but Green Bay (much to my chagrin) were NO match for San Francisco. The leaves us with the 49ers looking to match the Pats and Steelers with the franchise's SIXTH Super Bowl title, after becoming only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games. The 1999 St Louis Rams also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. Not to be outdone in "the history" department, the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl 50 years after last appearing in one. The Chiefs played in and won Super Bowl IV 16-7 over the Vikings, the final Super Bowl prior to the AFL-NFL merger. That 50-year span sets a record for longest stretch between Super Bowl appearances for any club (note: As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs also played in Super I, losing to Lombardi's Packers, 35-10).

San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Niners D has been "back in form" in the postseason, holding the Vikings to 147 yards and just seven FDs (Minnesota was 2 of 12 on 3rd downs and 0 of 2 on 4th downs). The Packesr did gain 358 yards in teh NFC championship game but trailed 27-0 at the half and two 4th-quarter TD drives accounted for 167 of the team's total of 358 yards. San Francisco averaged 29.2 PPG on the season (2nd) and its running game, second-best to only Baltimore's in the regular season at 144.1 YPG, has led the way in the playoffs.The 49ers controlled the game vs the Vikings with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards) and then 'exploded' vs the Packers by rushing for 285 yards (6.8 YPA). Mostert set a team playoff record with 220 yards and four TDs. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession but finished just 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT vs Minnesota. He was no more than a 'spectator' in the win over Green Bay, going 6 of eight for 77 yards (no TDs or INTs).

KC has thrilled its fans in reaching this season's "ultimate" game. The Chiefs fell behind Houston 24-0 but then scored a TD on SEVEN consecutive possessions in a 51-31 win. They then fell behind Tennessee 10-0 and 17-7, before again taking control. KC scored 28 straight points to open a 35-17 lead and win, 35-24. Leading the way is the NFL's most exciting (best?) QB, Patrick Mahomes. His performances have been dazzling, as he's completed EXACTLY 23 of 35 passes in both wins, throwing for 615 yards with eight TDs and not a single INT. He's also been KC's leading rusher (106 yards / 7.1 YPA), including a SPECTACULAR 27-yeard TD scamper right before the half vs the Titans. RB Damien Williams has been acquitted himself quite well, rushing for 92 yards (three TDs) while adding seven catches and one TD. TE Kelce was a 'beast' vs Houston (10 catches for 134 yards and three TDs) but then took a 'backseat' to WRs Watkins and Hill vs Tennessee. Watkins caught seven passes for 114 yards and one TD, with Hill adding five catches and two TDs. KC's D struggled during the first part of the season but held opponents to just 11.5 PPG during the team's six-game winning streak to end the regular season. KC's defense was hit hard by Houston early but shut down the Texans in the second half, allowing just SEVEN points. It was deja vu all over again against Tennessee, as the Titans were also held to just seven second-half points. More notable, Titans RB Henry came into the AFC championship game averaging 196.0 YPG rushing (7.1 YPA) in his previous three games but KC completely shut him down, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries (3.6 YPA).

Kansas City has won EIGHT straight games, all by SEVEN points or more, with its average winning margin being 16.1 PPG. Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo (a glorified game-manager) is a "no-brainer." Yes, San Francisco's running game is superb but the Chiefs are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry during their last six games plus Kansas City has limited long completions and the Niners' WRs leave a  lot to be desired (TE Kittle is the biggest threat). What's more, KC's pass rush has been greatly upgraded with the return from injury of premier DT Chris Jones and the late-season signing of veteran DE Terrell Suggs.

Mostert had a game for the ages against the Packers in the NFC championship game and NO WAY he comes ANYWHERE close to that kind of performance, here. I'm not going to 'beat up' on Jimmy G but c'mon, him vs Mahomes? The only QBs the 49ers faced who can be compared to Mahomes this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The Saints scored 46 points against the 49ers, the Falcons scored 29 points at San Francisco and won, while the Seahawks averaged 24 points and were inches away from a TD that would have given them a season sweep. Garoppolo doesn’t have the arm, touch, mobility and craftiness Mahomes possesses. Garoppolo also doesn’t have the speed and depth the Chiefs have at the WR position. This could get 'ugly' for San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, they will become only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games.The Niners lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the year in Week 3 of the 2018 season and 'limped' to a 4-12 record. However, the team is now ONE win away from joining the 1999 St Louis Rams who also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. That said, the Packers have a pretty good story themselves, as Packers opemend teh 2019 season off back-to-back losing seasons (7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in 2018), for the first time since 1990 and 1991. At the start of the current season, Green Bay playing in the NFC championship game was only slightly more far-fetched than San Francisco doing so

These teams played earlier this season in Week 12 in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers lost a fumble on Green Bay's first possession, setting up a two-yard TD drive that gave San Francisco the lead. The Niners then broke it open with long TD passes to Deebo Samuel late in the second quarter and to George Kittle in the third quarter of a 37-8 win. Rodgers threw for just 104 yards (career-worst 3.2 YPA) and got sacked five times. The loss left Green Bay at 8-3 but the Packers would end the regular season by winning their last FIVE games, allowing just 14.2 PPG to claim the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Niners were 10-1 after that win and went 3-2 the rest of the way, holding the Seahawks inches away from a TD in the fianl seconds of Week 17, claiming the NFC's top-seed. San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG.

However, San Francisco's defense humbled the vikings last weekend (Saturday), holding Minnesota to 147 total yards in a 27-10 win. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession and finished 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT. San Francisco's running game ranked second to only Baltimore's in the regular season and controlled the game with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards). Getting back to the San Francisco D, Minnesota was held to just seven FDs and was 2 of 13 on third downs plus 0-2 on fourth down tries. Green Bay played last Sunday and dominated Seattle in the first half, taking a 21-3 lead. The Packers led 28-10 in the late 3rd quarter but Russell Wilson NEVER gives up. Seattle cut it to 28-17 and then to 28-23, before missing a two-point try. Seattle only got the ball back ONCE after that (four plays) plus Rodgers converted two HUG third downs late, sealing the win.

These two franchises have combined for NINE Super Bowl titles and have a rich history when it comes to the playoffs. This will be their EIGHT meeting in the past 25 postseasons, three more than any other rivalry. In fact, the only other matchup to occur more often is Cowboys-Rams, which happened nine times. So here we are. I doubt anyone thinks the 49ers will rout the Packers again. Then again, maybe some do. Count me as one who DOES NOT!

Taking Jimmy G over Kirk Cousins is one thing but over Aaron Rodgers in an NFC title, while laying a TD? As of Friday afternoon, there were 7.5s galore. Rodgers had an off year, but threw for 4,002 yards (Jimmy G had 3,978) with 26 TDs and just four INTs (Jimmy G's ratio was 27-13). In the Division Round, Rodgers was 16-of-27 for 243 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (113.7 QB rating), while Jimmy G was 11-of-19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT (74.7 rating). San Francisco's running game has better depth but Green Bay's Aaron Jones (1,084 rush yards, 474 receiving yards and 19 total TDs) will be the best RB of the field. Kittle's a terrific TE and gets the edge over the aging Jimmy Graham but the best WR on the field (by far!) is Davante Adams, who had eight catches for 180 yards (2 TDs) vs Seattle. San Francisco's D gets the edge but I don't think by much. Remember the Niners' second-half troubles and Green Bay's D finishing by allowing 14.2 PPG its final five games. Is shutting down Kirk Cousins proof it can be done to Rodgers/. Especially, when Rodgers not only has great motivation to "make up for" for his Week 12 'nightmare' plus he also has to realize his Super Bowl 'window' is closing.

One final reference to Green Bay's Week 12 loss at San Francisco. Discount that contest and know that the Packers were 8-0 SU  & ATS against EVERY other above-.500 team they faced in 2019. I'm grabbing the points and hoping we see a Super Bowl I rematch, Green Bay-Kansas City (note: I have NO play on Ten/KC on Sunday).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Clemson at 8:00 ET.

Clemson is playing in the national championship game for the FOURTH time in five years and comes in as not only the defending champs but with a 29-game winning streak. However, Clemson is the No. 3 seed and will play the role of underdog when it takes on No. 1 LSU. No one could seriously argue against LSU being the No. 1 seed (and favorite). That claim was punctuated by its 63-28 rout of No. 4 Oklahoma in the semifinals (more shortly). Clemson edged No. 2 Ohio St 29-23 in the other semifinal, a game which could have gone either way.
Joe Burrow and the LSU offense 'steals' most (if not all) of the headlines but Clemson’s offense is similarly dangerous. QB Trevor Lawrence has 3,431 passing yards with 36 TDs and just eight INTs. FIVE of his INTs came in Clemson's first three games, meaning he threw just THREE over his last 11 games, while throwing 31 TDs (he has 22 TDPs and zero INTs in 180 pass attempts over his last seven games). Lawrence also has 514 rushing yards with eight TDs. RB Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards / 8.0 YPA / 18 TDs) as well as 32 catches (1,932 scrimmage yards, 22 combined TDs). Etienne caught three passes for 98 yards and two TDs against Ohio St. Higgins has 56 catches (19.9 YPC / 13 TDs) and Ross 61 catches (12.9 YPC / 8 TDs). Clemson's D ranked first in the nation during the season in both scoring D (10.6 PPG) and total D (224.7 YPG). Clemson did allow Ohio St to gain 516 yards but Ohio St's 23 points were more than 25 points less that the team's nation's-best average of 48.7 PPG.

Joe Burrow was the runaway Heisman winner and entered the game against Oklahoma leading the nation's No. 1 offense (554.5 YPG), while averaging 47.8 PPG (3rd-best). All Burrow and LSU did was score 49 points in the first half against the Sooners, as Burrow threw for seven TDs (four to WR Justin Jefferson). Burrow would add a rushing TD in the second half of the 63-28 victory, finishing with 493 passing yards and eight total TDs. Burrow will enter this game completing 77.6% for 5,208 yards with 55 TDs and only six INTs. LSU’s is the first team in history with a 5,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher (Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1,304 / 6.6 YPA / 16 TDs), and two 1,000-yard receivers (Ja’Marr Chase 1,559 / 20.8 YPC / 18 TDs & Justin Jefferson 1,434 / 14.1 YPC / 18 TDs). Edwards-Helaire was nursing a hamstring injury and carried just twice for 14 yards vs Oklahoma  but he's had two weeks to get healthy. Lost in LSU's offensive 'explosion' was the fact that the team's oft-criticized defense held Oklahoma to 322 yards, far below its 554.2-yard average coming into the game.

Is LSU the "irresistible force" which can't be stopped? Clemson's offense averaged 46.5 (4th) during the season on 547.7 YPG (3rd), so don't sell it short. Then there's that Clemson D and if any unit can somewhat hold Burrow and Co. in check, it would be Clemson's.  Note that Clemson had out-gained 28 consecutive opponents before being out-gained by 99 yards by Ohio State.It's hard not to like (love?) Ed Orgeron but Clemson's Dabo Swinney reign of postseason 'terror' began with a 25-24 win over LSU in the 2012 Peach Bowl. Clemson's game-winning points came with just 1:18 to play against Ohio St and its D then sealed the win with an end zone INT with just 37 seconds to play. With that win, Swinney pushed his bowl mark to 9-2 SU and postseason ATS record to 10-1 since 2012. Throw in the fact the No. 1 seed has not won the national title in the first five years of the College Football Playoff and Clemson plus the points looks even better. In fact, top seeds have twice bowed out in the semifinals and are 0-3 in the title game. Make that 0-4. "Orange is the new Black?" How about "Clemson is the new Alabama!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

The 13-3 Green Bay Packers rebounded from 6-9-1 season in 2018 to earn the NFC's No. 2 seed. That gave teh Pack a first round bye and now a home game against the 5th-seeded Seattle Seahawks, who got past the injury-depleted Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, 17-9. Seattle win last Sunday gave them an NFL-best 8-1 record on the road, as do-everything QB Russell Wilson threw for 325 yards and a TD plus added a team-high 45 on the ground. Aaron Rodgers is nearly 10 years removed from his lone Super Bowl title but the 36-year-old feels Green Bay is poised to make another run at the championship.

Wilson was te driving force behind the Seattle offense all season, as he threw for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just six INTs (106.3). He was backed by a strong running game for most of the season (137.5 YPG ranked 4th) but one-by-one, Seattle RBs got hurt and last Sunday, Homer and Lynch ran for just 19 yards on 17 carries. Lockett was Wilson's favorite target during the season (82 catches / 12.9 YPC / 8 Tds but Sunday it was Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs), who was the star. The second-round WR set an NFL postseason rookie record with 160 yards receiving on seven catches, including a 53-yard TD in the third quarter. "It was fun and it was scary at the same time. The way the season's been going, this team, you know I didn't want this to be our last time playing football," the 22-year-old said. Seattle's defense is no longer referred to as "the Legion of Boom," as it allowed 24.9 PPG (22nd) but the D held Philly to just three FGs and 282 total yards, while getting SEVEN sacks!

Rodgers was NOT great in 2019 but he did top 4,000 yards (4,002) and had 26 TDs compared to just FOUR interceptions. RB Aaron Jones had a breakout season, rushing for 1,084 yards (4.6 YPA / 16 TDs) plus caught 49 passes for 474 yards with three TDs. WR Adams played in just 12 games but led the way with 83 catches. FIVE more players caught between 34 and 49 passes, as Jones led that group while TE Jimmy Graham had just 38 receptions in 2019 to mark his lowest total since his rookie year in 2010. The Green Bay offense was middle-of-the-pack all season, averaging 23.5 PPG (15th) on 345.5 YPG (18th). The defense more than held up its own, allowing 19.6 PPG (9th).

For all Seattle's road success this season, the Seahawks have lost EIGHT straight at Lambeau Field and are 1-9 all time in the Packers' stadium. Wilson is 0-3 as a starter at Lambeau with a passer rating of 60.4. Wilson has completed just 55 of 96 his passes (57.3%) for 604 yards with SIX interceptions and just three TDs. What's more, Seattle lost a heart-breaker at home on Dec 29 against the 49ers (could have won NFC West with a win) and then had to fly cross-country to play the Eagles in a Sunday afternoon playoff game. The Seahawks returned to the West Coast after that win and now flies to the Midwest to face Green Bay. That kind of traveling can take a toll. One more thing, the forecast calls for a kickoff temperature in the low 20s, but a potential winter storm is shaping up to arrive in the region Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and up to 10 inches of snow.NONE of this helps the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature' LEGEND Play is on the SF 49ers at 4:35 ET.

Neither the Vikings nor 49ers were in the postseason last year but are two of FOUR teams left in the NFC as the meet at Levi's Stadium on Saturday in the Divisional Round. The Vikings finished 10-6 to earn the No. 6 seed in the NFC and last Sunday, knocked the 13-3 Saints out of the playoffs with a 26-20 OT win in New Orleans. RB Dalvin Cook gained 130 yards from scrimmage (94 yards on the ground with two TDs), after missing the last two regular-season games with a shoulder injury. Kirk Cousin, with a reputation for NOT winning in prime time or against the league's better teams, passed for 242 yards without an interception. He finished with 242 yards and in OT, threw a "perfect" 43-yard pass to Adam Thielen that set up his four-yard game-winning TD pass to TE Rudolph. It was Minnesota's first road playoff win since Jan 9, 2005 (2004 season), when the Vikings beat the rival Packers at Lambeau Field in the wild-card round. The Vikings now get to play top seed San Francisco on Saturday.

The 49er were just 4-12 last season, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season in Week 3. However,  Garoppolo was healthy all season (more later) and the 49ers rode their defense and a 'soft' first-half schedule to open the season 8-0. The 49ers' 5-3 record in the second half was good enough for them to finish 13-3 and via tie-breakers, earn the NFC's top seed. A closer look at San Francisco' second half reveals a heart-breaking 30-27 home OT loss to Seattle (49ers had multiple chances to win), a 20-17 loss at Baltimore (which ended the season on a 14-game winning streak) and a "are you kidding me" 29-22 loss to the Falcons in Week 15 (need to see it to believe it!). Tfive wins came over Arizona, a rout of the 13-3 Packers, a "Game of the Year" 48-46 win at New Orleans, a 34-31 win over last year's NFC champs (Rams) and a thrilling 26-21 win at Seattle, avenging that OT loss and clinching the No. 1 seed. DON'T sell the 49ers short.

Kirk Cousins completed 69.1 % of. his passes this season, throwing for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs (career high 107.4 QB rating). Dalvin Cook (1,135 rushing yards /  4.5 YPA / 13 TDs) plus caught 53 passes for 519 yards. He's one of the league's best all-purpose backs and one only need to look at Minnesota's MNF Week 16 loss to Green Bay (Cook sat out) to see his value. Diggs led the team in receptions (63), YPC (17.9) and tied for a team-high with six TDs. Thielen was able to play in just 10 games and caught a modest 30 passes (also six TDs) and his value was on display last Sunday (when healthy), as he caught seven for 129 yards. TE Rudolph (39) and his backup Smith (36) both contributed, with Rudolph tying Diggs and Thielen with six TD catches. The Minnesota D doesn't get enough credit but it allowed just 18.9 PPG (6th-best). Just ask Brees about the Viking D, which held him to 208 yards and a QB rating of 49.6 (note: Not counting Week 2 when Brees left after five attempts, the future HOFer had QB ratings of over 100 in EIGHT of 10 starts!).

Garoppolo is 21-5 as a starter in the NFL (19-2 with the 49ers) and that's been his 'calling card." I've questioned his talent before but he's thrown for more yards than Cousins (3,978), while also completing 69.1% His 27-13 ratio is not far off Cousin's and his QB rating is 102.0. The 49ers don't have a RB in the class of Cook but the trio of Mostert, Brieda and Coleman took turns contributing throughout the season, as San Francisco's 144.1 YPG ground was second to only Baltimore all-time record of 3.296 rushing yards (206.0 YPG). TE Kittle (85 catches / 5 TDs) is the team's best pass-catcher but Samuel (57 catches / 14.1 YPC) and Sanders, are capable. Sanders caught 36 passes in 10 games (after being acquired from Denver) and remember, he averaged 85 catches for 1,200 yards and 20 TD catches from 2014-16 with the Broncos. Yes, San Francisco's D dropped off in the second half, after allowing only 11.0 PPG through its first seven games but when all the dust had settled, San Francisco ranked second in total D (281.8 YPG) and 8th in scoring at 19.4 PPG.

Kudos to Minnesota for winning at New Orleans but should we now ignore this factoid? The  Vikings visit Levi Stadium (outdoors, unlike New Orleans' dome), having gone 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16 road games against a winning team in an outdoor stadium!! The San Francisco pass DS was No. 1 in allowing only 169.2 YPG, while Minnesota's downfield pass coverage has had more than just occasional  problems this season. South Carolina rookie Deebo Samuel and vet Emmanuel Sanders allow Garoppolo to look downfield more (plus use TE Kittle over the middle) and that's why the 49ers were able to average 29.2 PPG, second to again, only Baltimore. "I'm just glad Kirk can't win big games, apparently," Rudolph 'crowed' after his game-winning TD grab against the Saints. "We proved that one wrong today." My bet is that Rudolph will 'eat' those words come Saturday evening!

Good luck...Larry

My NFC 10* Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks (moneyline) at 4:40 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'rescued' their season by winning FOUR straight games to end the regular season, all against division rivals. The Eagles beat the Giants twice, the Redskins once and the Cowboys in a key Week 16 showdown, giving them the NFC East (Least?) title with a 9-7 record. Philly is the No. 4 seed and that means the team draws the NFC's No. 5 seed, which is the 11-5 Seattle Seahawks. Seattle would have secured home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs had tight end Jacob Hollister crossed the goal line on his fourth-down catch in the waning moments of a 26-21 loss to San Francisco last Sunday. Seattle's stupid five-yard penalty shortly before that, was an even bigger flub! Anyway, a matter of a few inches now results in an approximate 2,400-mile trek from the Emerald City to the City of Brotherly Love.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson has had a remarkable season, considering (more in a bit). He's thrown for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs, giving him a 106.3 QB rating. Wilson 'keeps ticking' despite devastating injuries to the team's running game. Chris Carson (1,230 yards / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs), Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise have all endured season-ending injuries over the last three weeks. Marshawn Lynch was summoned from retirement and rushed for 34 yards and a TD last Sunday, while rookie Travis Homer added 62 on the ground and caught five passes for 30 yards. Russell's top targets are Lockett (82 catches / 8 TDs) and second-year player Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs). The offense NEEDS to produce, as Seattle's once-proud defense is a mere shell of its former self, allowing 24.9 PPG (22nd) on 381.6 YPG (26th).

The Eagles know "all about" playing through injuries. WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are all done for the season (Jackson only played three games). TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (58 catches / 5 TDs) have stepped up "big time" but Ertz missed last Sunday and is no better than questionable for this game. Rookie RB Miles Sanders  (818 rushing yards / 50 catches for 509 yards) had a terrific season but hurt his ankle last Sunday (he is listed as probable and says he will play). RB Boston Scott (practice squad) "saved the day" last Sunday vs the Giants, scoring three TDs in the second-half of Philly's "must win" 34-17 victory over the Giants. Carson Wentz has endured all season, throwing for 4,039 yards with 27 TDs and just seven INTs. Philly's defense has gotten healthier week by week and ended the regular season allowing 22.1 PPG (15th) on 331.7 YPG (10th).

Carson Wentz was forced to watch from the sideline as Nick Foles became a local legend, leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the franchise's first Super Bowl title two years ago. Wentz was a spectator again last season when Foles rallied the Eagles to three straight wins, an unlikely playoff berth and a wild-card victory. Wentz avoided injuries while seemingly everyone around him went down, set franchise passing records and led the Eagles (9-7) to four consecutive wins down the stretch and their second NFC East title in three seasons. Now, it's "his time." However, the Eagles finished Week 17 missing seven starters on offense. Philly's here only because the NFC East is a 'joke.' the team's four-game winning streak, all against division rivals, came over the the 4-12 Giants (the twice), the 3-13 Redskins and the dysfunctional 8-8 Cowboys. Meanwhile, Seattle lost out on the NFC's No. 1 seed by a "matter of inches" and posted a NFL-best 7-1 road record this season. Seattle won 17-9 at Philly in Week 12, giving Russell Wilson a 4-0 career record over the Eagles. What changes here? NOTHING!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.

The New England Patriots jumped out to an 8-0 start but were humbled 37-20 at Baltimore in a SNF game in Week 9. The Pats managed to win FOUR of their next six games (just 3-3 ATS) and were all but penciled in for a first-round bye, as all they needed was to beat lowly Miami at home in their regular-season home finale to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC. However, as a 17.5-point favorite, the Pats lost 27-24 and now New England will play in the wild-card round for the first time since 2009. Coming to Foxoboro on Saturday night will be the 9-7 Tennessee Titans, who saw their season 'turn' when former Heisman-winner Marcus Mariota was benched in favor of former Miami QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans' 16-0 loss at Denver left the team at 2-4 but Tannehill's play at QB coupled with the running of  Derrick Henry, saw Tennessee go 7-3 (6-3-1 ATS) over its final 10 games to earn the AFC's final playoff spot.

Tannehill finished the regular season completing 70.3 percent for 2,742 yards with 22 TDs and six INTs, as his QB rating of 117.5 was tops among all QBs. Rookie A.J. Brown caught 52 passes for a 20.2 YPC average with eight TDs. RB Henry topped 100 yards in FIVE of his last six games. He sat out Week 16 but returned in Week 17 to run for 211 yards with three TDs in the 35-14 win at Houston that nailed down the AFC's No. 6 seed. Henry averaged 149.3 YPG over his final five game to surpass Cleveland Nick Chubb to lead the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards (5.1 YPA / 16 TDs). FYI...He averaged 146.3 YPG in his last four contests of 2018 (it's becoming a tradition!). The Tennessee D allows 20.7 PPG (12th) but its pass D is shaky, allowing 255.0 YPG to rank 24th.

There is NOTHING shaky about the New England defense, as despite its late collapse vs Miami last Sunday, the Pats finished No. 1 in the NFL in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG). New England has needed its defense in 2019, as its offense has fallen off. Brady did throw for 4,057 yards with 24 TDs and just eight INTs but his QB rating of 88.0 was far below his usual standards. Edelman had 100 catches but the receiving corps, as a whole, is one of the worst of Brady's career (RB White had 72 catches and was the ONLY other player with more than 30 catches). Michel ran for 912 yards (just 3.7 YPA) and no other RB had more than 302 rushing yards. The Pats rank 18th with 106.4 YPG rushing on 3.8 YPA.

Many are calling for the Pats to struggle here but I'm NOT one of them. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowl rings in eight seasons with New England under coach Bill Belichick and said, "This is about the Titans and our preparation to go up there and face a team that’s won three Super Bowls in the last five years. They’re 8-0 at home (in the playoffs) in that span. They’ve got the No. 1 defense. They’ve got the best coach. They’ve got the best QB. So it’s quite a challenge.” Well said. Ryan Tannehill saw plenty of New England during his tenure with Miami and he has few good memories. It's early January in New England and in a Brady vs Tannehill QB matchup, as well as a HC matchup of Belichick ( SIX Super Bowl rings and 31 playoff wins) vs Vrabel (1st-ever postseason game as a head coach), am I really going to "step in front of" the Pats? Oh by the way, New England is coming off a loss (not just ANY loss but a near-historic one) and they are a remarkable 43-17 ATS (that's 71.7%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. In a tribute to Archie Bunker, I'll say "Case Closed!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 4:35 ET.

The 10-6 Houston Texans have won the AFC South title in in 2019 for the FOURTH time in the last five season but Bill O'Brien's team has just ONE playoff victory in its three postseason appearances. Houston wrapped up the AFC South title with a Week 16 victory in Tampa Bay, allowing head coach O'Brien to rest QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins during the team's regular-season finale against Tennessee, one in which the Titans won going away, 35-14. The Buffalo Bills matched Houston with a 10-6 mark, good enough to earn the AFC's top wild card spot. It marks Buffalo's second playoff appearance in three seasons, after a playoff drought that lasted 17 years. The Bills had the No. 5 seed wrapped up heading into Week 17 and QB Josh Allen received an early exit in Buffalo's 13-6 home loss to the Jets. The Bills travel to Houston in search of the franchise's first playoff win since a 37-22 win over Miami in a wild card game back on Dec 30, 1995. The Bills have lost all FIVE postseason games since that victory.

Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio. However, he has also run for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. Allen has helped the Bills rushing game average 128.4 YPG (8th). Vet Frank Gore (599 yards but just 3.6 YPA) was the main man erarly on but the Bills have begun to lean on RB Devin Singletary and the rookie has paid dividends with 775 yards on 5.1 YPA. Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (72 / 14.7 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (67 / 6 TDs). The Bills' bread and butter resides with their defense, which is allowing 16.2 PPG (2nd) on 298.3 YPG (3rd).

Houston QB Deshaun Watson is looking for his first playoff win after struggling in his playoff debut last season, a 21-7 loss to the Colts. When he's on, he's quite superb but he too often reminds us of Jameis Winston (that may be too cold!). Watson has completed 67.3% for 3,852 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He's also run for 413 yards and seven TDs. The preseason injury to Lamar Smith was supposed to cripple Houston's running game but Carlos Hyde has run for 1,070 yards (4.4 YPA), as Houston is right behind Buffalo in rushing for 125.6 YPG (9th). WR DeAndre Hopkins (104 catches / 7 TDs) was just named 1st-team All Pro and the really good news is that Will Fuller V (49 catches in 11 games) returned to practice this week after injuring his groin in Week 16. Note that the Texans own an 8-3 record and have averaged 26.3 points in games in which Fuller has played this season, as opposed to a 2-3 mark with a 19.6 point average in contests that he has missed. Houston's D is NOT a strength, as the Texans have allowed 24.1 PPG (19th) on 388.3 YPG (28th). However, J.J. Watt will return to the field a little more than two months after surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle in Saturday's game. Watt was a rookie in the 2011 playoffs when his spectacular performance against the Cincinnati Bengals led the Houston Texans to the first postseason win in franchise history. That game was tied at 10-all in the second quarter when Watt tipped a pass from Andy Dalton and grabbed it for an interception, which he returned 29 yards for a TD to put Houston on top for good. The DE also had four tackles, a sack and a quarterback hit in the 31-10 victory.

If one believes in "omens" (good or bad), Watt's return spells G-O-O-D news for the Texans. The Buffalo D is top-notch but the Bills haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their last four games. Allen is a gutty guy but the Bills just have too many offensive limitations to back them in a road playoff game at this price. With Baltimore awaiting the "lucky winner" of this one, maybe bowing out here won't be all that bad. I say the "unlucky winner' with be the home team and the final comes with more than enough "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Jan Game of the Month is on Sou Miss at 11:30 a.m. ET.

This year's Armed Forces Bowl (at Fort Worth, Texas) features 6-6 Tulane of the AAC and 7-5 Southern Miss of C-USA. However, Tulane and Southern Miss were once both members of C-USA, and this "Battle for the Bell" series owns a 30-game history. Southern Miss own a 23-7 record in the rivalry, which is being contested for the first time since 2010. It pits a pair of schools separated by just 113 miles of interstate highway. The Green Wave stumbled at the end with losses in FIVE of their final six games, including the last three, but will make their second consecutive bowl appearance after a four-year absence. The Golden Eagles miss out at an opportunity at the C-USA crown by dropping their final two games but are returning to bowl play after being left out last season despite reaching the six-win threshold.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FIVE of its last six (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win here to replicate last season's 7-6 mark. Dual-threat QB McMillan has 2,229 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs but leads the team in rushing with 704 yards (4.6 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as FIVE more RBs chip in between 240 and 569 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 11th by averaging 251.4 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG) but the "stop unit" allowed 35.2 PPG on the road, a big reason Tulane went just 1-5 away from home.

The Golden Eagles turned the ball over a total of EIGHT times in their final two regular-season games, falling 28-10 at home to Western Kentucky and 34-17 at FAU. QB Jack Abraham has thrown for 3,329 yards with 18 TDs and 15 INTs. He has two solid WRs in Jones (66 catches) and Watkins (55 catches / 18.6 YPC). The running game is a true weak link, averaging only 122.8 YPG (118th) on 3.6 YPA. However, Southern Miss has averaged 27.8 PPG (74th) on 411.3 YPG (59th). The defense has played reasonably well, allowing 350.3 YPG (36th) and 25.9 PPG (54th).

It's my belief that Southern Miss meeting rival Tulane is a motivating bonus factor. The schools faced each other every season from 1979-2006, then again for a home-and-home in 2009 and 2010. The Golden Eagles were left out of the bowl season last year despite a 6-5 record (note: their schedule last season was trimmed to 11 games when a September contest was canceled as Hurricane Florence threatened the Atlantic Coast). However, 'bowling' has been a "regular thing" for Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles mad 17 bowl appearances in the 21-year span from 1997-2017. That's in stark contrast to Tulane, which needs a win here for just its THIRD winning season in the previous 17 seasons!

There is a GREAT chance that Tulane's outstanding ground game (see above) will NOT be effective against a Southern Miss rush D allowing just 111.8 YPG (18th) on  3.4 YPA! I also really like the "bowl experience" that Southern Miss holds over Tulane. QB Jack Abraham has had more than a month to get over a 34-17 loss at Florida Atlantic in the finale, one in which he threw FOUR interceptions and was sacked three times However, let's NOT ignore that he became just the THIRD quarterback in school history to pass for 3,000 yards in a season in 2019 and has completed 70 percent of his passes in two seasons as a starter! He''ll face a Tulane defense that allowed an average of 35.7 PPG in going 1-5 over its last six contests. Throw in the fact that  Southern Miss has won the last SIX meetings between the one-time rivals and taking a TD seems awfully 'juicy' to me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Cincinnati at 3:00 ET.

The Cincinnati Bearcats suffered a 42-0 road loss at Ohio State early in the season and didn't lose again until back-to-back games at Memphis to end the season. Cincy lost 34-24 at Memphis on Nov 29 and then met the Tigers on Dec 7 in the AAC title game (again in Memphis), falling 29-24 on a late TD.  Third-year head coach Luke Fickell, leads Cincy into this year's Birmingham Bowl, seeking a second straight 11-win season.  Steve Addazio was the first BC coach to get the Eagles to a bowl in SIX of seven seasons but was abruptly fired following their upset win at Pitt in the regular season finale. Yes, BC was a 'bowl regular under Addazio but he was only 42-42 in his tenure (team never won more than SEVEN games in any season) and was 1-3 in bowl games (last year’s bowl was cancelled to due inclement weather). BC has hired Ohio State’s DC Jeff Hafley to take over next season but promoted WR coach Richie Gunnell to serve as the interim head coach for this contest.

If that wasn't enough turmoil, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has also left the program to serve in the same role at Northwestern plus more notably, star running back AJ Dillon, who rushed for 1,685 yards (5.3 YPA) and scored 14 TDs this season, has declared for the draft. He is sitting out this game, so backup David Bailey will see a larger role, after rushing for 816 yards (5.8 YPA) and seven TDs. Sophomore QB Dennis Grosel in now in charge, after junior Anthony Brown was injured halfway through the season. Both have similar TD-to-INT ratios (Brown's was 9-2 and Grosel's is 9-3) but while Brown completed 59.1% of his passes, Grosel is completing just 48.6%. The team's leading receiver has only 27 catches and one wonders how BC's offense will fair (without Dillon) against the Cincy D (more later). As for BC's defense, the Eagles are allowing 31.7 PPG (96th) on a whopping 480.3 YPG (125th!).

The Bearcats also rely on a strong ground game behind junior Michael Warren, who has back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons with 33 TDs on the ground in that span. He's run for 1,160 yards (4.8 YPA / 14 TDs) this season, while fellow RB Doaks has also compiled 499 rushing yards (5.3 YPA). QB Desmond Ridder returned from a shoulder injury for the AAC title contest but completed just 16-of-36 passes. However, he ran for 113 yards and a TD in the loss, giving him 545 rushing yards on the season. Cincy is averaging 197.6 YPG on the ground (33rd). Ridder has thrown for 2,069 yards (17 TDs / 9 INTs) but like with BC, Cincy's leading receiver has only 36 catches. The Cincy D checks in allowing 21.7 PPG, good enough to rank 30th.

Taking a closer look and the 2019 season, BC opened and closed the season with upset wins over bowl teams Virginia Tech and Pitt, but didn’t beat another bowl invitee in the remaining 10 games. Meanwhile, nationally-ranked Cincy, which had a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl had it defeated Memphis in the AAC title game, only lost two games prior to that, at Ohio State and at Memphis, when QB Desmond Ridder was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Ridder returned for the AAC title game and the Bearcats led that one until Memphis scored the game-winner with 1:14 remaining. The Cincy defense comes in allowing 21.7 PPG but a closer look reveals that it allowed 35.0 PPG in its three losses (Ohio St and Memphis, twice), while in the team's 10 wins, allowed only 17.7 PPG. I see no reason for why the Cincy D won't contain a BC offense playing without its marquee player (Dillon) and with a QB completing less than 50 percent of his passes. Blowout alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rose Bowl play is on Oregon at 5:00 ET.

Oregon (preseason No. 11) opened its season on Aug 31 with a game at "Jerry's House" against Auburn (preseason No. 16). The Ducks dominated play in to the late third quarter (led 21-6) but the Tigers would hold Oregon scoreless over the game's final minutes, while scoring the game's final THREE touchdowns (game-winner came with NINE seconds remaining). Oregon would fight its way back near the top of the rankings by winning its next NINE games (37.9-to-13.4 PPG) and was No. 2 when it lost 31-28 at Arizona St on Nov 23. That ended the Ducks' CFP hopes but a dominating 37-15 win over Utah in the Pac-12 championship game earned Oregon a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Wisconsin  opened the season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll and started the season 6-0, while 'pitching FOUR shutouts!' The Badgers were ranked 6th in the AP poll (defense was allowing 4.8 PPG!) when they lost 24-23 at Illinois on Oct 19, as four TD favorites. Wisconsin lost 38-7 at then-No. 3 Ohio St the following Saturday, ending any hopes the Badgers had of a CFP berth. The Badgers did fight back to take the Big Ten West but in a rematch with the Buckeyes on Dec 7, Wisconsin fell 34-21, getting outscored 27-0 in the second half. The 'consolation prize' is this trip to Pasadena.

Wisconsin is ranked 8th as it meets 6th-ranked Oregon and is in search of a SIXTH straight bowl victory, which has followed a four-game postseason skid.Leading the way for the Badgers is junior RB Jonathan Taylor, who has 1,909 rushing yards (6.4 PPA and 21 TDs). He's just 91 yards away from joining Troy Davis (Iowa St) as the only players in FBS history to run for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He enters with 6,080 career rushing yards and could be playing his final college game, as he wrestles with the decision to turn pro.Oklahoma St's Chuba Hubbard an for 158 yards in his bowl game, giving him 2,094 on the season. Doing the math, Taylor needs 186 yards to become the first player since Texas' Ricky Williams to lead the nation in rushing in back-to-back years. QB Jack Coan has thrown for a modest 2,541 yards but has made mistakes (just four INTs, while throwing 17 TDs) but his only receiver with more than 30 catches is Quentez Cephus (52 / 16.2 YPC / 6 TDs).

Oregon has a very good running game (185.8 YPG ranks 42nd) led by Verdell, who has 1,171 yards on 6.5 YPA and eight TDs. Fellow RB Habibi-Likio may have just 337 yards but he's scored 10 TDs. However, the key to Oregon's offense (35.9 PPG ranks 15th) is QB Justin Herbert, who has thrown for 3,333 yards with 32 TDs and only five INTs. He turned down a chance to be a high first-round pick in the NFL Draft last winter and he enters the final game of his college career as the nation's active leader with 95 career TD passes. WRs Johnson (55) and Redd (50) each have seven TD catches. As for the Oregon D, it is actually allowing less points than Wisconsin's D on the season, checking in at 15.9 PPG to Wisconsin's 16.1.

Speaking of that Wisconsin D, it's become quite ordinary since yielding only 4.8 PPG on a paltry 174 YPG in its 6-0 start. Wisconsin has allowed an average of 25.7 PPG over its last seven games, including a combined 72 points in two losses to Ohio State, as well as allowing a season-high 493 yards of total offense at Nebraska on Nov 16.Bottom line is that the Oregon defense is every bit as good as Wisconsin's (maybe better?) and has 19 INTs (2nd-most in the nation entering the bowl season), which boosted Oregon to 8th in the country in turnover margin. After Utah got embarrassed last night by Texas (Longhorns won 38-10, as seven-point underdogs), Oregon should be motivated to restore some Pac-12 pride. Herbert goes out a winner, making his return for his senior season worth it.'

Good luck...Larry

10-2 Navy (No. 23 in the CFP rankings) will take on unranked on Kansas State (8-4) in the Liberty Bowl on Tuesday. The two programs are used to playing in bowl games, as Navy will be appearing in its 15th bowl game in the last 17 years, while Kansas State will make its ninth bowl appearance in the last 10 seasons. 2018 was a bit of an anomaly for both schools, as neither played in a bowl game. Navy went just 3-10 and Kansas St 5-7 finished 5-7 in the swan song of iconic coach Bill Snyder, who retired for a second time after the season. Ken Niumatalolo led the Midshipmen to biggest turnaround of any FBS program from last season, while Chris Klieman, who led North Dakota St to four FCS national championships over the previous five seasons, guided the Wildcats to a tie for third place in the Big 12, the school's best finish in conference play since 2014.

The Wildcats are led by QB Skylar Thompson (2,191 passing yards and 402 rushing yards), who accounted for 22 TDs (12 passing, 10 rushing) this season and became the fourth player in school history with more than 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards on the ground. Gilbert is the team's leading rusher (698 yards / 5.2 YPA / 6 TDs) for a running game averaging 190.5 YPG (37th). The team's top-two pass-catchers are Schoen (35 catches) and Knowles (22) but both have excellent averages of 16.2 and 15.9 YPC. The Wildcats are averaging 30.7 PPG (54th) and the Kansas State defense allows 21.5 PPG (28th). Most impressively, the defense has been VERY opportunistic, ranking No. 1 nationally in third-down efficiency (25.9%), while holding 11 of 12 opponents below their season scoring averages.

Perhaps no team in the country has its fortunes tied to one player more than Navy, which features dual-threat QB Malcolm Perry Perry shattered a few single-season school records on his way to the 304-yard performance against Army, boosting his rushing total to 1,804 yards to eclipse the mark previously held by Napoleon McCallum, while also establishing a new standard with 2,831 yards of total offense. Perry's ninth consecutive 100-yard rushing performance and 10th of the season are also school records. RB Carothers is also a threat with 712 yards and 14 TDs. Overall, Navy averages a nation-best 363.8 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPA with 51 rushing TDs. Perry's outstanding game vs Army overshadowed a stellar effort by the defense, which limited Army to 148 yards of total offense. Navy allowed 33.5 PPG on 426.0 YPG last season but in 2019, has allowed just 22.8 PPG (38th) on 326.3 YPG (22nd).

Navy has won four of its last five bowl games and while this will be Klieman's first FBS bowl game, he has lots of postseason experience by winning four of the previous five FCS titles not to mention serving as an assistant to Craig Bohl for another three Bison FCS title winners. I respect K-St and Klieman but preparing for the Navy option is no easy task. Contrary to popular opinion, a couple of extra weeks is not always enough. It should also be noted that Niumatalolo has used extra prep times wisely in recent bowls, covering his last FIVE.

Is Navy the play? I like the Midshipmen but I 'LOVE' the Over in this one. I noted above the great improvement this year by the Navy D but look deeper. When you do, you'll find that Navy allowed 35.6 PPG against the five bowl teams it payed this season, while holding the other seven opponents to just 13.6 PPG. That's quite a disparity. Yes, the Kansas St defense has had a very good year but again, trying to slow down Perry and the Navy option is often like 'chasing windmills.' This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Va Tech at 12::00 ET.

7-5 Kentucky and 8-4 Virginia Tech meet Dec 31 in the Belk Bowl at Charlotte, N.C. The Wildcats were just 4-5 after a 17-13 home loss to Tennessee back on Nov 9 but ripped off THREE straight wins to earn a bowl bid for the FOURTH straight season under head coach Mark Stoops. Lynn Bowden, Jr., a WR turned QB, took over under center for Kentucky at 2-3 and finished 5-2. The Hokies have a similar story, as Herndon Hooker was inserted at QB with the Hokies at 2-2 and the sophomore led the team to SIX wins in its next seven games. Va Tech met Virginia on Nov 29 and a win would have earned them the ACC Coastal Division title but the Cavs beat the Hokies 39-30, ending a 15-game losing streak in the series. No doubt the Hokies were disappointed by that loss but Va Tech is making its 27th straight bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the nation

Bowden, an AP All-American who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation's most versatile player, is the ONLY player in the country to lead his team in rushing and receiving, and averages 8.2 YPA, while producing five straight 100-yard ground games to end the season, capped by a career-high 284 yards and four TDs against Louisville. He finished the season with 1,235 rushing yards, 1,136 of which he gained in the final seven games, and 11 rushing TDs. Kentucky also has a trio of RBs who have between 515 and 757 yards rushing, giving the Wildcats the 4th-best ground game in the nation at 274.8 YPG (6.4 YPA). Don't expect much out of Kentucky's passing game though, as Bowden has completed just 46.8 percent of his passes for 330 yards (two TDs and two INTs). Stoops is a defensive guy and Kentucky is allowing only 18.4 PPG (12th).

Va Tech has no stars but a decent running game that's averaged 172.9 YPG (53rd). Hooker is nothing like Bowden but he did rush for 306 yards and five TDs. He's passed for 1,445 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He likes to spread the ball around, with Tre Turner, Damon Hazelton and Tayvion Robinson accounting for 92 receptions for 1,434 yards and 12 TDs (no receiver has more than 33 catches). Defense has always been a Va Tech trademark and this game marks the final one for DC Bud Foster. He followed head coach Frank Beamer from Murray State before the 1987 season and has been in Blacksburg ever since. That includes the last 24 years running the defense under Beamer and Justin Fuente, who replaced Beamer after the 2015 season. After a rough start, Foster's unit peaked in November, allowing 9.3 PPG and pitching two shutouts, before giving up 39 points to Virginia. Va Tech's only other loss in its 6-2 closing run was 21-20 to Notre Dame.

Color me sentimental but Foster has a had a month to prepare for Kentucky's one-dimensional offense. Foster's defenses have posted 36 shutouts and have collected the most sacks (893) and second-most interceptions (393) in the FBS since 1996. I say Va Tech "wins one for the Gipper!" You get my drift, right?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Western Kentucky at 12:30 ET.

Western Kentucky was coming off a 3-9 season in 2018 and had a first-time head coach (Tyson Helton) to open 2019. Things couldn't have looked worse when the Hilltoppers opened the season with with a 35-28 home loss to FCS Central Arkansas (as a 10 1/2-point favorite) but by the end of November, the team had made a major turnaround. WKU went 8-4 and is now in its SIXTH bowl in eight seasons. Waiting in Dallas for the Hilltoppers for the First Responders Bowl is 7-5 Western Michigan, which is appearing in its fifth bowl game in the last six years and second straight under third-year head coach Tim Lester.

The Broncos' are averaging 34.2 PPG (25th) behind QB Jon Wassink (2,904 yards / 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio) and RB LeVante Bellamy, who leads the nation in rsuhing TDs (23), while gaining 1,412 rushing yards (9th) on 5.7 YPA. WRs Mixon and Moore have combined for 95 catches but just five TDs. TE Ricci has 47 catches and a team-high eight TDs. The defense is allowing 26.2 PPG (57th) on 414.6 YPG (82nd).

Starting QB Steven Duncan went down with a foot injury early on for WKU and graduate-transfer QB Ty Storey started the last nine games, throwing for 2,209 yards and 12 TDs and just five INTs. It helps that Storey was throwing to a pair of receivers that each earned all-conference honors in Lucky Jackson (77) and Jahcour Pearson (71), one of just four duos in the country to have at least 70 catches each. RB Gaej Walker was second in C-USA with 1,115 rushing yards (4.9 YPA / 8 TDS), reaching the 100-yard plateau seven times. The offense is averaging a modest 25.6 PPG (90th) on 380.0 YPG (87th) but the defense is top-notch, allowing 20.1 PPG (21st) on 337.8 YPG (29th).

Yes, WKU lost its opener against a FCS school but then defeated four C-USA bowl teams plus power-five opponent in Arkansas. Ty Helton was named the C-USA Coach of the Year, an award his father, Kim, won as head coach of Houston in 1996, the first father-son duo to win the award in the conference’s history. Western Kentucky comes in having won its last three games, including a 45-19 victory over Arkansas. WKU was 7-2 SU and ATS with Storey as its starter and I think that the Hilltoppers are undervalued in this matchup. Western Michigan hasn't played since it frittered away a chance to play for the MAC title (Nov 26) when it lost 17-14 at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite. Frankly, Western Michigan failed to impress in a softer MAC West and enters this contest with a putrid 1-8 bowl record that includes last year's 49-18 thumping at the hands of BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. WMU falls to 1-9 all-time in bowls, as WKU wins handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 NFC West is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West title is on the line when the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-3) visit the second-place Seattle Seahawks (11-4) on Sunday night. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a victory but a Seattle win would give the Seahawks the division title as they won the first meeting with the 49ers. That first meeting was a Week 10  MNF "classic," in which the Seahawks won 30-27 in OT (FYI...I had Seattle as my Nov Game of the Month!). The stakes are clearly high, as the 49ers will either be the NFC's top-seed (getting home field all the way and earning a bye next weekend), or they will be the No. 5 seed, which would mean a road game next weekend at the NFC East winner (Dallas of Philly). Meanwhile, a season sweep would assure Seattle of at least the No. 3 seed, avoiding a road game next weekend vs that NFC East winner.

Jimmy Garoppolo has gained his "rep" by producing a 20-5 record as an NFL starter, not by putting up 'monster' passing stats. However, he has thrown 27 TD passes against just 13 INTs this season, while throwing for 3,693 yards. If he can throw for 307 yards against Seattle, he would  to join Jeff Garcia (franchise-record 4,278) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (two 4,000-yard campaigns) as the only San Francisco QBs to reach 4,000 yards in a single season. San Francisco is averaging 30.2 PPG (2nd-most) and Jimmy G has had lots of help from his running game this season,as three RBs have battled injuries to rush for between 533 and 715 yards. As a team, only the Ravens (Lamar and Mark) have run for more YPG than San Francisco's 145.1. San Francisco's WRs are nothing more than average (kudos to Jimmy G for making due), although TE Kittle (78 catches) is one of the best in the business. San Francisco's defense has fell off lately (more in a bit) but it enters this final game of the regular season allowing 277.4 YPG (2nd) and 19.3 PPG (8th).

Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a strong contender for MVP honors for most of the season but Lamar Jackson's play  has left all contenders "in the dust." That said, Wilson has thrown for 3,877 yards with 29 TDs and just five INTs, while rushing for 313 yards with three more TDs. For most of the season, he's been buoyed by an excellent rushing attack, led by Chris Carson (1,230 / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs). However, Seattle's RB situation is a mess after starter Carson (hip) and reserve C.J. Prosise (arm) were hurt last week to join main backup Rashaad Penny (knee) on the injured list. Seattle signed two former team members in Marshawn Lynch (2010-15) and Robert Turbin (2012-14) to support new starter Travis Homer. I guess Curt Warner was NOT available! Seattle's defense no longer bears the moniker "Legion of Boom," as the unit is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) on 380.5 YPG (26th).

OK, so what's the play, you ask? Yes, Seattle is banged up but let's go back and take a look at that "dominant" San Francisco defense. After allowing only 11 points per game the first seven contests, the Niners have given up 26.5 points PPG over their last eight contests (that's the NINTH-worst total in the league during that span!). Feeling a little better about my Seattle pick? How about trying this stat on? First, let me note that Seattle's home field is one of the loudest in the NFL and Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in it for the first time, as he missed last season's visit because of a torn ACL. How have the 49ers fared in the Great Pacific Northwest? Not so well. The 49ers have lost EIGHT straight visits to Seattle, including the 2013 NFC Championship Game! Seattle gets to stay home next week with a win and would earn the No. 2 seed if the Packers lose (earning a bye) and the No. 1 seed if the Saints lose, as well (hardly likely). As for  the 49ers, I expect them to lose, which means they are off to Dallas or Philadelphia. 

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC West) is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos and Raiders met in Week 1 of the 2-019 season, in the second half of a MNF doubleheader. Oakland won 24-16 in that contest as a 2 1/2-point home dog (I had the Raiders, capping a 4-1 opening week!).  Here's how I opened my analysis of that contest.

Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12.

The Raiders enter this contest 7-8 and the Broncos at 6-9. However, thanks to the Steelers and Titans each losing in Week 16, the Raiders actually have a chance (more like a 'prayer') of earning the AFC's No. 6 seed. Here goes. To reach the playoffs, the Raiders need to beat the Broncos and get lots of help. That is; losses by the Titans and Steelers, a win by the Colts and a least a win by the Patriots, Bears, Chargers or Lions. Best of luck. However, NOTHING matters if the Raiders lose.

The Raiders still have a playoff 'prayer' because they beat equally forlorn Chargers 24-17 last Sunday, QB David Carr is completing 71.1% for 3,663 yards with 20 TDs and eight INTs (101.1 QB rating) but he has yet to throw for 300 yards in a SINGLE game this season. He's a "dink-and-dunker"  and other than Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs) he's got little to work with. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (from Alabama) has been terrific, running for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPA) and seven TDs but he missed last week's game with a shoulder injury and had surgery to treat a skin injection on his leg Wednesday. Hard to imagine him playing here. DeAndre Washington was a 'savior' last week filling in for Jacobs with a season-high 106 yards from scrimmage (do NOT expect a repeat effort, here!). Darren Waller is second in the league among tight ends with 1,038 yards and third with 84 receptions. He's the first Oakland TE to record 1,000 yards in a season since Todd Christensen in 1986. However, the team's two starting WRs Renfrow (43) and Williams (42) COMBINED to catch just one more catch than Waller. The Oakland defense has been near the bottom of the league all season and enters Week 17 ranked 27th in allowing 26.9 PPG.

The Broncos opened 0-4 (1-3 ATS) but since those early woes, Denver has gone a competitive 8-3 ATS. The signing of Flacco turned out to be a bust plus Brandon Allen hardly looked ready for "primetime." However, as the saying goes, "the third time's the charm!" Drew Lock, a second round pick from Missouri, is the first rookie in franchise history to win THREE of his first four starts. Lock is completing 64.8 percent of his passes with six TDs and three INTs. It appears he has all the tools to lead the franchise moving forward. RB Lindsay (958 / 4.7 YPA / 7 TDs)  will reach 1,000 yards on Sunday plus his backfield partner, Freeman, has 500 rushing yards and 42 catches. Similar to Oakland, Denver has a single pass-catching threat. In this case, it's WR Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs). The Fangio-coached defense has gotten healthier week-by-week and enters this contest ranking 10th in both points allowed (20.1 PPG) and yards allowed (327.2 YPG).

Why would anyone want to trust Oakland in this one? Heading into its game last Sunday vs the sad-sack Chargers, the Raiders had lost FOUR in a row by an average of 21.7 PPG. Try these stats on for size. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s and that has usually spelled doom for QB Derek Carr and the Raiders. Carr has lost NINE straight starts when it has been below 50 degrees. He owns a 65.9 passer rating in those games, compared to 94.7 in all others. As noted above, Fangio has this Denver defense playing "up to snuff" and one wonders if the unit did not suffer a bout with mono early in the season, just maybe the Broncos would have had an 8-8 or 9-7 season. We do KNOW that the Broncos are 6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS the last seven times hosting Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Shocker is on the NY Giants at 4:25 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles returned from their Week 10 bye to lose THREE in a row. At 5-7, Philly's postseason chances seemed dim. However, the Eagles have vaulted to the top of the NFC East by putting together a season-high three-game winning streak in defeating each team in their lackluster division. Philly's 17-9 win last Sunday against Dallas means the Eagles can wrap up the NFC East title with a win at the New York Giants. The Giants are just 4-11, after their 41-35 OT win last Sunday against the Redskins. If history is a guide, the Eagles are in good shape. They've beaten the Giants SIX straight times and in 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a "down" year but, he's thrown for 3.3750 yards on the season with 26 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 910 yards and six TDs and just one interception in wins over the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys. He's done all that (the last three weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (54 catches / 5 TDs) have been terrific but Ertz's availability for Sunday's game is in question after he sustained a broken rib against the Cowboys. "He is progressing, getting better. We'll keep monitoring him each day," head coach Doug Pederson said. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9 with an injured shoulder. However, he is expected to gain clearance to return to the backfield following a six-game absence. He'll be welcomed back but Miles Sanders has rolled up 328 scrimmage yards and three total TDs in his last two games. He has 766 rushing yards and 1,276 yards from scrimmage, with both totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (327.3 YPG) and 16th in scoring D (22.5 PPG).

The Giants ended a nine-game losing streak with 36-20 win at home in Week 15 over the Dolphins (Eli's last game with the Giants?) and then last Sunday, with rookie Daniel Jones back at QB, won 41-35 (OT) at Washington, as Jones (23 TDs / 11 TDs) passed for 352 yards with five TDs (zero INTs). More big news coming out of the Giants' last two wins is the return to "elite form" for RB  Saquan Barkley. He's run for 301 yards and three TDs in the back-to-back wins and now has 911 yards (4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) on the season, along with 49 catches. New York's WRs are finally healthy and Jones, Barkley and Co. will test Philly's improving defense. The Giants D is vulnerable (27.8 PPG ranks 29th), so it will be up to New York's offense to win this one.

The Giants gave the Eagles all they could handle when the teams three weeks ago, losing in overtime after being ahead by two TDs. In that one, the Giants had
old man Eli at QB plus Barkley not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain (was held to just 66 yards).  For this one, Barkley is back to 100 percent and Daniel Jones is fresh off a confidence-boosting effort last Sunday (see above for both). NOTHING has come easy for Philly this year and note that in the team's three-game winning streak, they needed to come back against both the Giants and Redskins, before slipping past the incompetent Cowboys. The Eagles' playoff fate is in their hands but a Philadelphia loss, coupled with Dallas win over Washington on Sunday, will spell the end of the Eagles' season. I see that as a very likely scenario.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Jax Over at 4:25 ET.

The abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck near the end of this year's preseason was a jolt to the Colts, who were coming off a 10-win season which also included a wild card win at Houston. However, the Colts would open the 2019 season 5-2, including wins over eventual division winners KC and Houston. QB Jacoby Brissett played MUCH better than expected and Marlon Mack led one of the league's best running games. Indy's good fortune did not last though, as the Colts lost SIX of their next seven games, before beating hapless Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. Indy now hopes to win here at Jacksonville, to finish 8-8.

The Jags "gave up" on Blake Bortles and signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract in March but Foles broke his left clavicle in the first quarter of the team's Week 1 game. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and completed his first 13 passes (finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs). Minshew was reasonably effective at QB and the Jags reached the mid-point of the season at 4-4 but has since lost SIX of seven, winning only in Week 15 at Oakland 20-16, after trailing 16-3 at the half. The 5-10 Jags will finish with a losing record for the EIGHTH time in nine seasons. "A very disappointing year," head coach Doug Marrone told reporters. "It's difficult when a team is not doing well. You want your team to be doing well so your fans can have some pride and joy. ... I'm truly sorry that I've let so many people down and that I couldn't have done a better job."

The Colts were embarrassed  34-7 on MNF at New Orleans two weeks ago but ended a four-game slide by routing Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. However, let's note that the Panthers have lost SEVEN in a row. Brissett is completing 61.6% for 2,780 ayrds (18 TDs / 6 INTs) but his recent struggles have cast some doubt on his future as the team's starting QB. He has completed just 52.5 percent of his passes with 8.9 yards per completion over his last two games. Running backs Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins combined for 179 rushing yards and a pair of scores in the win over the Panthers and despite missing some time late in the season, Mack has run for 1,014 yards (4.4 YPA / 6 TDs), giving him his first 1,000-yard season. The Colts are averaging 133.2 YPG, giving them the league's 4th-best rushing attack. Indy's best receiver T.Y. Hilton has been fighting injuries all season (just 42 catches and 5 TDs) but he is active for this one. Indy's defense has been "average' all season, allowing 22.3 PPG (15th) on 346.4 YPG (16th).

Nick Foles came back from that Week 1 injury but did not play well. Minshew's fast start created some buzz in Jacksonville but his play has been a bit more uneven since he regained the starting role from Nick Foles at the beginning of the month. Minshew completed just 13-of-31 passes in last week's 24-12 loss at Atlanta, but he does have five TD passes and just one interception in four December starts. Will the Jags 'eat' Foles' contract and go with Minshew (2,976 pasing yards with a 18-5 ratio plus 337 rushing yards on 5.4 YPA) in 2020. We don't hear much about Leonard Fournette these days but he's had quite a season, rushing for 1,152 yards (4.3 YPA & 7 TDs) plus he's caught 76 passes. Second-year WR Chark has also 'flown under the radar,' catching 69 passed with eight TDs. The Jacksonville defense checks in allowing 25.1 PPG (22nd) on 382.1 YPG (27th).

Indy head coach Frank Reich has made one thing clear since his team was eliminated from the playoffs by New Orleans on Monday Night Football on Dec 16; "There's nothing meaningless about finishing this season with back-to-back wins and avoiding their second losing season in three years." Frank Reich is 8-3-1 ATS in division games and his teams can be counted on for a full effort. As for the Jags' Doug Marrone, he may not be back. Personnel chief Tom Coughlin was identified as the franchise's biggest problem and was fired on Dec 18. Marrone could really use his Jags to bring their "A game" in this one. He can't count on his D (see above) and note that Jacksonville has given up an average of 469 YPG over the last three weeks. For the Jags to win (even compete) here, they will need to score, That's why I'm saying "O-V-E-R!"

Good luck...Larry

 

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

lt's called the "Battle of Ohio" but the winner of this Week 17 game between the 6-9 Browns and 1-14 Bengals wins nothing more than a "booby prize." The Cleveland Browns dropped their last two games, clinching another playoff-less campaign despite high expectations and have not made the playoffs since 2002 (last won a playoff game when Bill Belichick coached them past the New England Patriots in the 1994 divisional round). Their streak of 17 seasons without a playoff appearance is the longest active one in the league. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals clinched the worst record in the NFL and the No. 1 draft pick with its 38-35 overtime loss at Miami last week. The Browns posted a 27-19 home win over the Bengals in Week 14 and now own a three-game winning streak in the series, after dropping the previous six meetings.

Baker Mayfield had an excellent rookies season (27 TDs / 14 INTs / 93.1 QB rating) and expectations were high for him and the Browns enter the 2019 season (Cleveland was featured on SI's NFL preview edition). However, Mayfield has 19 INTs and 18 INTs with a 79.1 QB rating entering this final game. The Browns opened 2-6, with Mayfield throwing seven TDs and 12 INTs. A three-game winning streak followed (Mayfield d has seven TDs and just one INT) but the Browns have lost THREE of the their last four, with Mayfield throwing five TDs and INTs. It's not like he doesn't have quality offense 'weapons,' as RB Chubb (1,453 yards / 5.1 YPA / 11 TDs  / 35 catches) is closing in on the league's rushing title. Chubb leads Carolina's Christian McCaffrey by 92 yards and has a chance to clinch the title against a Bengals defense that has struggled against the run. WRs Landry (81 catches / 5 TDs) and OBJ (71 catches / 3 TDs) are a talented duo but the fact that they have combined to catch just eight TDs is troubling. To add insult to injury, Beckham (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday.

Cincinnati has been at the bottom of the league all season but the team is still putting in the effort. Cincy scored 16 points in 29 seconds to force overtime last week (lost 38-35 in OT), as QB Andy Dalton threw four TD passes without an interception. Dalton (3,304 yards 15 TDs a& 13 INTs ) has one year left on his contract, so he could be playing his final game for the team that made him a second-round draft pick in 2011.Then again, the Bengals could keep him to mentor a new QB through a rookie season. The Bengals placed WR A.J. Green (ankle) on IR Monday, officially ending a season in which he did not play a snap after suffering the injury in the preseason. Boyd (85 catches / 5 TDs) has been the team's top receiver and RB Joe Mixon is set to surpass 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season (he has 975). It's hard to hide the fact that Cincy ranks last in scoring (16.4 PPG), while allowing 26.5 PPG (25th).

Cleveland hasn't finished with a winning record since going 10-6 in 2007. Since then, the Browns have gone 4-12 and 5-11 three times, won seven games twice, and had a three-year stretch of 3-13, 1-15 and 0-16. Their streak of 17 seasons without a playoff appearance is the longest active one in the league. As for Cincinnati, the Bengals  wrap up their fourth straight losing season. They haven't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the fifth-longest streak of postseason futility in the NFL's century-old history. During that 29-year span, they've had only seven winning seasons. Some "Battle of Ohio," right? That said, the Bengals have secured the top overall draft pick and would love nothing more than to beat the Browns. Why not take some points with the Bengals? The dysfunctional Browns have lost and failed to cover their last FIVE road games!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.

What a difference the No. 1 vs No. 2 spot in the final CFP rankings meant. LSU was able to leap-frog Ohio St after the Tigers dominated the Bulldogs, while the Buckeyes fell behind Wisconsin 21-7 at the half in the Big Ten championship game, before dominating the second half to win, 34-21. No. 1 LSU drew Oklahoma in the semifinals, where the Tigers are just about a two-TD favorite, while No. 2 Ohio St gets Clemson. The defending champs will take the the field in this year's Fiesta Bowl on a 28-game winning streak. Like LSU, Ohio St would have been a double-digit favorite against the Sooners, but instead the Buckeyes will take the field Saturday night  against Clemson as small underdog. It’s the second time in four years that Clemson and Ohio State have squared off in a semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl, with the Tigers routing the Buckeyes 31-0 in 2016.

Clemson is trying to become the first repeat national champion since Alabama rolled to back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012. The knock on the Tigers is their relatively weak schedule and that 21-20 'squeaker' at North Carolina back on Sep 28 (the Tigers 'escaped' when the Tar Heels failed to convert on a two-point conversion try with just 1:17 remaining in the game). However, the Tigers have surged ever since that 'scare,' rolling to eight wins, while outscoring their opponents 51.9-to-9.8 PPG (no wonder Clemson was 7-1 ATS in that stretch). QB Lawrence did not play well early, throwing five TDs and five INTs in his first three games. However, he finished the season with 34 TDs against just eight INTs, throwing 20 TDs and not a single INT in his last six games (147 attempts). RB Etienne (1,500 yards / 8.2 YPA / 17 TDs) leads a running game that perfectly balances Lawrence's passing game. Clemson averages 294.8 YPG passing and 252.9 YPG rushing, while scoring 46.5 PPG (4th). The Clemson D ranks first in the nation in allowing 10.6 PPG on 244.7 YPG (also No. 1).

Anything you can do, I can do better," is what Ohio St responds with. QB Fields has thrown for 40 TDs and just one INT on the season (308 attempts), while RB Dobbins has rushed for 1,829 yards (6.5 YPA) and 20 TDs. Ohio St's pass/rush balance is VERY similar to Clemson's and the Buckeyes are scoring 48.7 PPG, tops in the nation. Ohio St can't quite match Clemson's defensive numbers but the Buckeyes come awfully close. Ohio St is allowing 12.5 PPG (3rd), on 247.9 YPG 95th).

The superlatives for both teams are endless but for me, it comes down to this. Clemson's dominating season saw them play just ONE team which ended the season in the final CFP rankings, and that was Virginia, at No. 24. Seriously, does ANYONE think that Virginia, which lost 35-20 to Notre Dame and 62-17 to Clemson, while also losing 17-9 to a 6-6 Miami team and 28-21 to a 7-5 Louisville team, is a 'top-notch" football team? Ohio St basically mirrored Clemson's numbers, while beating Wisconsin twice (current No. 8), Penn St (current No. 10) and Michigan (current No. 14), not to mention a 10-3 Cincinnati team (current No. 21), 42-0! Ohio St has been an underdog just SEVEN times since 2012 and is 7-0 SU. Make that "crazy eights!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener (Camping World) is on Iowa St at 12:00 ET.

Notre Dame (10-2 / No. 15 in the CFP rankings) meets 7-5 Iowa State Dec 28 in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fl at 12 noon ET. Both football programs have been around for more than a century (fair to say that Notre Dame has a more storied history) but will meet for the first time. The Fighting Irish are making their NINTH bowl appearance in 10 seasons but a hard-fought 23-17 loss at Georgia back on Sep 21 and then 45-14 blowout loss at Michigan on Oct 26, ended any "Final Four" talk for Notre Dame before the season moved to November. However, the Irish closed with FIVE straight wins, averaging 43.8 PPG in going 4-1 ATS. Iowa State owns wins over Texas and TCU plus its five losses came by a total of 21 points, including one-point losses to ranked opponents Iowa and Oklahoma (were two-TD underdogs against the Sooners), as well as a two-point loss to Baylor. Notre Dame enters the contest with an 18-19 record in bowl games, while Iowa State is 4-10 in bowl appearances.

QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season in 2018 as freshman, after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland. Purdy completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,250 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs while playing in 10 games. The sophomore was the starter this season from Week 1 and enters this contest completing 66.3% with 3,760 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs (he also has eight rushing TDs). Jones leads the team with 72 catches (only two TDs, though) but TE Kolar has seven TDs among his 48 catches and WR Pettway six TDs among his 51 catches. RB David Montgomery (1,216 yards and 13 TDs) is now playing for the Bears and this year's running game is not as good. Hall leads the team with 842 yards on 5.0 YPA with nine TDs. The offense is averaging 34.1 PPG (26th) but ISU's defense is allowing 25.3 PPG (52nd) on 362.2 YPG (44th). That's a slight drop-off from 2018, when it allowed 22.9 PPG on 349.0 YPG.

Notre Dame features senior QB Ian Book, who could elect to come back for a fifth season in 2020. Book struggled at times early on but threw for 12 TDs without an interception in the last three games to finish with 2,787 yards with 33 TDs and just six INTs. Book added 516 rushing yards (4.9 YPA) and four TDs. He's become the first Irish QB to throw for 2,500 yards, rush for 500 and pass for at least 30 TDs in a single season. RB Jones (722 yards on 5.4 YPA and 5 TDs) helps ND's running game average 178.3 YPG (46th). WR Claypool is the team's best pass-catcher, with 59 (15.1 YPC) and 12 TDs. The Irish average 37.1 PPG (13th), while their defense allows just 18.7 PPG (13th) on 325.6 YPG (21st).

On paper, one could argue the Notre Dame side fairly easily, but not I. Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame team played in the CFP semifinals last season (lost 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl to Clemson) plus was in Fiesta and Citrus Jan 1 bowls in two of the previous three seasons, facing CFB 'blue-bloods' LSU and Ohio State in those games. My guess (bet) is that this Dec 28th game holds little allure for Notre Dame and I have NO intention of overlooking the fact that Brian Kelly comes into this game having covered just TWICE in 11 career bowl games.

Meanwhile, Mike Campbell came from Toledo to take the Iowa St job back in 2016. He was just 3-9 that first season but this marks a THIRD straight bowl appearance for the Cyclones for the first time since 2000-02. What's more, Iowa St was 5-2 ATS as an underdog in 2018 and has gone 2-0 ATS as an underdog in 2019. I'm taking any points available but expect an outright win by the Cyclones.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Holiday Bowl Blowout is on Iowa at 8:00 ET.

I'm calling this year's Holiday Bowl, "Rose Bowl Light," with the Pac 12's USC Trojans (8-4) taking on the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3). The Holiday Bowl sure has a Rose Bowl 'feel' but it also serves up a 'battle' between USC's "Air Raid Offense" against Iowa's defensive prowess. USC ranks 5th in the nation averaging 335.9 YPG passing, leading to 33.2 PPG (36th) Iowa counters with a defense which ranks FIFTH in allowing just 13.2 PPG on 304.6 YPG (12th). Looking closer, Iowa is allowing only 184.2 passing YPG, which ranks 11th. The Holiday Bowl venue seems perfectly suited to USC, with its large alumni base in Southern California and San Diego just a short drive away. However, Iowa supporters are well-known for traveling to bowl games and who wouldn't want to escape the snow and cold temperatures of the upper mid-west for a few days of sun and fun?

After losing 30-27 to Notre Dame for the 3rd straight year back on Oct 12, things didn't look good for USC or its head coach, Clay Helton. However, USC survived a season-ending injury to starting QB J.T. Daniels and a concussion to backup Kedon Slovis, among a laundry list of other injuries,ton win FIVE of its last six and finish 8-4 (22nd in both the AP and CFP rankings). Slovis has completed 71.8 percent for 3,242 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs. He's blessed with three WRs who all have at least 68 catches. Pittman leads the way (95, 1,222 yards, 11 TDs) with both Brown and Vaughns each catching 68 balls with six TDs. Remember when USC was nicknamed "Running back U?' No longer, as the Trojans are averaging only 126.3 YPG on the ground (113th) and their leading rusher has just 466 yards! The defense has plenty of question marks, allowing 27.8 PPG (66th) on 415.3 YPG (83rd)

NO ONE questions Iowa's defensive numbers (see above) but the Hawkeyes are averaging a modest 23.9 PPG (99th) on YPG (98th). QB Nate Stanley entered this season with a 52-16 TD-to-INT ratio in his previous two but threw for only 2,738 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs (truly underwhelming). Three RBs have rushed for between 414 and 590 (on 5.0 YPA) but still, Iowa is averaging a modest 139.5 YPG on the season (9th). That said, Stanley's a senior leader and fully capable of "coming up big'" against a mediocre USC defense. The Hawkeyes have ridden their physical style to the cusp of 10 wins for what would be the sixth time in coach Kirk Ferentz's 21 seasons at the helm.

USC's four loses have come by 10.5 PPG, while Iowa three losses have come by a margin of just 4.7 PPG.  More notably, those loses have come 10-3 at Michigan (current CFP No. 14), 17-12 at home to Penn St (current No. 10) and 24-22 at Wisconsin (current No. 8). I believe DEFENSE wins over offense and I'll take Ferentz over Helton any day of the week. Don't be surprised by a 10-15 point Iowa win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on North Carolina at 12:00 ET.

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a five-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. North Carolina won its final two games to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6 and  returns to a bowl game for the first time since 2016, looking for its first bowl win since 2013.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and then Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as that school's head coach and he leads the Owls into their FIFTH straight bowl, off an 8-4 season. The highlight of Temple's season was its 30-28 home win over Memphis, the Tigers' only loss of the season, who at 13-1 will play Penn St in the Cotton Bowl (New Year's Six game).

North Carolina relies heavily on freshman QB Sam Howell, who set several single-season school records on his way to being named Rookie of the Year in the Atlantic Coast Conference. He threw for 35 touchdowns with seven interceptions to go with an ACC-leading 3,347 passing yards. He's got some quality WRs in Brown, who caught  a modest 46 passes but averaged 20.6 YPC and had 11 TDs, as well as Newman (64 catches & 8 TDs) and Corrales (36 catches but 6 TDs). A pair of RBs, Carter (919 yards / 5.8 YPA) and Hill (848 yards / 5.6 YPA) , lead a rushing attack that averages 184.0 YPG. Along with Howell's passing, North Carolina has averaged 469.0 YPG (14th), although the Tar Heels are averaging 31.3 PPG 49th), which is less than one would expect with the yardage they've gained.

Temple averages 27.4 PPG (77th), behind QB Russo (just 58.6% completions with 21 TDs and 11 INTs) and a two-headed running attack featuring Davis (900 yards / 5.1 YPA) and Gardner (585 yards / 4.1 YPA). Russo has a quality trio of WRs, in Blue (87 catches but just four TDs), Mack (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and Wright (47 catches / 5 TDs). Temple's D allowed 23.5 PPG (43rd) on 365.0 YPG (46th) but most impressively ended the regular season ranked third nationally in red-zone stinginess.

Temple's senior class is the third-winningest group in program history with 33 victories. "I've really enjoyed my first season here at Temple and only wish that I can spend more time with this outstanding senior class," Owls head coach Rod Carey said.However, here's the rub. As noted above, Carey led the Northern Illinois to five bowls in six years and let me add that he also coached the Huskies in the Orange Bowl (2012 season), after Dave Doeren left to take the NC State job. What do all those bowl games have in common? The Huskies lost EVERY one! Should his 'luck' change here in 2019? I don't see it. Other than Memphis, who did Temple beat. Here's a list of the other seven. Bucknell (FCS), Maryland (3-9), ECU (4-8), USF (4-68), UConn (2-10), Tulane (6-6) and Ga Tech (3-9).

“Our No. 1 goal when we returned last year was to send the seniors out the right way,” Mack Brown said. “Everything we did, from spring practice to summer workouts to fall camp, was with an eye on winning enough games to get these seniors to a bowl game. Now, when this group looks back on their careers, they'll be able to say they helped get the program on the right track and finished with a bowl game. I'm just so happy for everyone involved in our program, but especially, that group of young men.” so far, North Carolina's "highlight of the year" was a 21-20 loss to Clemson (you know, the winners of 28 in a row), when the Tar Heels failed on a two-point conversion with 1:17 remaining in the contest. A win here will replace that game at "the No. 1 spot" and would be the 'cherry on top' of Mack Brown's "Carolina return." That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on La Tech at 4:00 ET.

Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016), which included a 31-14 bowl win over West Va. Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 (as a 12-point favorite) and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC championship game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin. Richt's DC Manny Diaz had already moved to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Is it really a surprise Miami had such a disappointing season (more in a bit).

The 6-6 'Canes meet the 9-3 La Tech Bulldogs in the Independence Bowl on Dec 26 in Shreveport, La. The Bulldogs play in C-USA and were 6-2 in the West Division, but lost a tie-breaker to UAB, which went on to lose the C-USA title game 49-6 playing FAU in its home stadium. However, unlike Miami, La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is finishing up his seventh season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marks the SIXTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game.What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH of the last five! Should I stop right here? C'mon, you know me better than that.

The Hurricanes' roller-coaster season mirrors the up-and-down play of QBs Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry, both of whom have had their chances but struggled with inconsistency and ineffectiveness. Diaz declared the battle open for the starting job in the Independence Bowl when Williams faltered in the final two games after seemingly turning the corner during a three-game winning streak in late October and early November. A weak offensive line didn't much help Miami's QBs, nor Miami's sad-sack running game that ranked dead last in the ACC (116.5 YPG). Adding insult to injury, leading rusher DeeJay Dallas (693 yards) will not play in this contest. Defense has long been a cornerstone for the Hurricanes but, despite ranking 13th in the country (307.6 YPG), the unit too often failed to get critical stops late in games. Miami's D allowed  57 points in its final two games, with consecutive 'ugly' defeats at local rival and non-power 5 school Florida International (30-24) and ACC foe Duke (27-17), which had come into the game with just two conference victories.

Louisiana Tech struggled down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Marshall (31-10) and UAB (20-14), before coming back to defeat Texas-San Antonio 41-27 in the regular-season finale. Senior QB J'Mar Smith missed the losses to Marshall and UAB, as he was suspended for violating athletic department policy. However, Smith returned for the finale and tossed three TD passes against UTSA. Despite sitting out two games, Smith enjoyed a career year while throwing for 2,814 yards and 17 TDs with just four INTs, earning the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year award. La Tech averages 34.0 PPG (29th) and after an opening 42-14 loss at Texas, the defense only allowed more than 30 points just twice

Breaking it down, both Miami's offense and defense has been erratic all season, so why should we expect them to turn things around here? Miami's offense should have problems vs a La Tech D that ranked THIRD in the nation in stopping opponents inside the red zone, giving up scores just 64.7 percent of the time. As for La Tech and its offense, the Bulldogs have won the last NINE game started by QB Smith. The Hurricanes have played in just one marquee bowl game since a 2005 , losing that Peach Bowl appearance 40-3 to LSU. That loss began a stretch that's seen Miami win just TWO of its last 11 bowl appearances and as noted above, Holtz has led La Tech to FIVE straight bowl wins the last five seasons! Dig deeper and we find that La Tech is 18-8-1 as a dog since 2014 and that the underdog has gone 9-3 ATS in Miami's 12 games this season. Ruston is just under 70 miles from Shreveport, so the Bulldogs should have great support, while is there any reason to expect Miami to be interested? Surely, the school's recent bowl efforts provide none

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 21-13 in Week 15, upping their record to 11-3 (tied with New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle for the NFC's best record). The Packers are a long-shot to get the No. 1 seed but are the favorite to win the NFC North. A win over the Vikings on Monday night will clinch the division for Green Bay but even with a loss, the Packers would still win the NFC North by beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 17 (the Lions are currently 3-10-1). The Vikings routed the Chargers 39-10 in LA last Sunday and enter this contest 10-4 and all but assured of at the least, a wild card spot. The only way Minnesota doesn't clinch a wild card spot would be by losing their last two games (host the Bears in Week 17), while the LA Rams win their final two games, at San Francisco on Saturday and at home in Week 17 to the Cardinals. Assuming that the Packers lose here but win at Detroit, the Vikings will be relegated to a wild card spot.   They could only earn the No. 5 seed (a great position, as the five-seed will play the NFC East champ, either Dallas or Philly) if the 49ers OR Seahawks lose out and the Vikings win out. That sets the stage for this MNF contest. Confused?

The Packers may be 11-3 but they seem to have a patent on “winning ugly” in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,463  yards with 24 TDs and just two INTs (in 474 attempts) but similar to Tom Brady, he just hasn't "looked right' in 2019. The Packers rank just 21st in total offense (336.6 YPG) and 14th in scoring (14th). RB Aaron Jones has been Rodgers' "main' man," rushing for 830 yards (4.4 YPA) while scoring 14 TDs. He's also caught 45 passes for three more TDs. Adams leads the team with 63 catches (just 4 TDs) but no other WR has even HALF as many receptions as Adams. Defensively, the Packers are allowing 371.3 YPG (to rank 23rd) but the team has fared better in the category of points allowed (20.2 PPG ranks 9th).

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has often been criticized but he's completing 70.5 percent on the season with 25 TDs and just five INTs (111.1 QB rating ranks fourth-best). RB Cook (1,175 RY / 4.5 YPA / 13 TDs plus has added 53 catches for 519 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs. He hurt his should again last Sunday and there are conflicting reports surrounding his availability for this game. He's listed as doubtful but Cook has said "Im playing." WR Stefon Diggs has 60 catches (17.9 YPC / 5 TDs) and fellow WR Thielen played last week and had three catches (he has 30 catches but six TDs in nine games). Minnesota has two-headed TE combo (Rudolph and Smith) and the duo has combined for 71 catches and eight TDs. The Vikings offense has played well all season, ranking seventh in scoring (27.0 PPG) and their defense also ranks seventh in allowing a modest 18.5 PPG.

The Packers will likely win the division but the Vikings GUARANTEE themselves a wild card spot with a win here. Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 at home and as noted earlier, Rodgers (like Brady), just seems 'off.' The Packers enter this contest averaging only 19.6 PPG their last six contests and Rodgers enters the game averaging just 189.8 YPG passing in that span. Meanwhile, the oft-maligned Cousisns has thrived since the Vikings installed a moving pocket for him, after the team went 2-2 in September. Minnesota is 8-2 since then, with Cousins throwing 22 TDs and just three INTs, posting QB ratings of over 100.0 SEVEN times. Never thought I'd ever say this but....I'm taking Cousins over Rodgers in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Battle 4 NFC East is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

The NFC East boasts a rich and decorated history but 2019 will NOT go down as a memorable season, unless one wants to focus on the moniker, "NFC Least." The Cowboys, Eagles Giants and Redskins have 'earned' that title, as the four teams are a combined 20-36 (.357), with Dallas and Philly 'leading' the way at 7-7.The Cowboys got a much-need 44-21 win last Sunday, snapping the team's second three-game losing streak of the season. Meanwhile, the Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back wins over the division's two bottom teams, needing OT to beat the Giants in a Week 15 home MNF contest and a fumble return for TD on the game's final play to get past the Reskins, 34-24 in Washington (the Eagles had just scored the go-ahead TD with 26 seconds remaining in the game). Dallas can clinch the division title with a win, while an Eagles win puts Philadelphia in control of its own destiny.

Dallas QB Prescott has thrown for 4,334 yards (2nd-best to Tampa Bay's Winston) with 26 TDs and 11 INTs. He's been dealing with a sprained right shoulder that limited him in practice this week but he declared that he'll "be good to go on Sunday," choosing to NOT add any additional drama surrounding this high-stakes game. WRs Amari Cooper has 71 catches and is averaging 15.1 YPC with eight TDs. Fellow WRs Gallup (56 / 16.3 YPC) and Cobb (45 / 15.0 YPC) give Dallas three receivers all averaging 15-plus yards per catch (that's impressive). RB Ezekiel Elliott had 117 rushing and 43 receiving yards (along with two TDs) in the Cowboys' 44-21 romp over the Rams and checks in with 1,188 yards on the season (4.4 YPA / 11 TDs). The current  Dallas D does not remind anyone of "Doomsday" Part 1 or 2, but the Cowboys rank seventh in total D (323.6 YPG ) and 12th in scoring D (20.6 PPG).

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a poor year and he sure was awful in when the Eagles lost 37-10 to the Cowboys in Week 7 at Dallas (he tossed an interception and had two of Philadelphia's three lost fumbles). However, he's thrown for 3,431 yards on the season with 25 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 591 yards and five TDs without an interception in wins over the Giants and Redskins. He's done all that (the last two weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TE  Zach Ertz is headed to his third straight Pro Bowl with 84 catches and six TDs (47 receptions for 544 yards and five TDs have come over the last six games). The team's second TE, Goedert, has 45 catches and four TDs. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9. Miles Sanders had 172 scrimmage yards (122 rushing, 50 receiving) in the Eagles' 37-27 victory over Washington last Sunday to boost his season total to 1,120 (687 rushing), with both  totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (328.5 YPG) and 19th in scoring D (23.4 PPG).

No matter how many times the Cowboys disappoint, they still seem to have plenty who will say that Dallas will nail down the NFC East title, here. I'm NOT one of them. Wentz has battled through a tough season and enters this contest with at least one TD pass in 17 straight games, the longest streak of any QB. The Cowboys do not own a SINGLE win against a team that is currently "in" the playoff field and has lost to playoff-bound teams New Orleans, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England and Buffalo. Lose here and the Cowboys will likely make Philly a playoff team in 2019. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

 

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Oak/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.

The 6-8 Oakland Raiders and the 5-9 Los Angeles Chargers have nothing to play for entering Sunday's meeting in Carson, Ca. The two longtime AFC West rivals are both coming to the end of disappointing seasons. The Raiders have lost their last FOUR games, including this past Sunday's 20-16 defeat to the Jags. The Raiders led 16-3 at the half but the Jags rallied to score the game's final 17 points, handing the Raiders a loss in their final home game in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Chargers have dropped FOUR of their last five, including last Sunday's 'ugly' 39-10 home loss to the Vikings, as Rivers threw three INTs plus lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

Oakland QB Derek Carr has completed a career-high 70 percent of his passes for 3,372 yards with 19 TDs and eight INTs but hasn't recorded a 300-yard outing this season. In fairness to Carr, he's got a very average (I'm being VERY kind) group of WRs, with TE Waller leading the team with 80 catches. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (1,150 rushing yards, 4.8 YPA and seven TDs) has been outstanding but will sit out the game with a shoulder injury. Oakland's defense is allowing 27.6 PPG (28th) on the season, after allowing an average of 34 points during their four-game slide.

Sure, Rivers went over the 4,000-yard mark for the 11th time during last week's 39-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings (4,055 on the season) but he's thrown 11 INTs in LA's last five games (1-4 slide) and on the season, has almost as may INTs (18) as TD passes (21). RB Melvin Gordon ran for 885 yards on 5.1 YPA with 10 TDs last season, while adding 50 catches and another four TDs. However, he held out early in the season and enters this game having rushed for just 551 yards (4.0 YPA / 5 TDs) plus has a modest 30 catches. His backfield partner Ekeler has 500 yards (4.2 YPA / 3 TDs) and also 78 catches (2nd-best on the team) with a club-high 8 TDs. WR Keenan Allen (1,046 yards, five touchdowns) was selected to his third straight Pro Bowl with his third straight 90-catch season and is 13 away from surpassing the career-best 102 he caught in 2017. LA's defense has been solid, allowing 20.7 PPG (13th) on 307.6 YPG (5th).

The Los Angeles Chargers will bid farewell to their temporary home of three seasons on Sunday, playing their final game at Dignity Health Sports Park, before they move into SoFi Stadium for the 2020 season. The 27,000-seat facility used mainly for soccer hasn’t been much of a home-field advantage, as visiting team fans have drowned out local fans. Last week’s game against Minnesota was dominated by Vikings fans in the lower deck. The same is expected on Sunday with a large percentage of Raiders fans still in Los Angeles. This could be the final home game for Rivers and Gordon, with both being in the final year of their contracts. Both have also struggled in what has been a disappointing season. When the Chargers played in Oakland (Nov 7), the Raiders won 26-24 but Gordon rushed for a season-high 108 yards. Rivers did not fare well, passing for just 207 yards with two TDs and three INTs. However, I expect Rivers to exploit a decimated  Raiders secondary (remember: Oakland has allowed 34.0 PPG during its four-game slide) but I also expect the Raiders to stay close, as the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS when favored in 2019. That translates into an O-V-E-R, this meaningless contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 5:30 ET.

The Camellia Bowl on Dec 21 in Birmingham, Al features 6-6  Florida International and 7-5 Arkansas State. FIU is 'bowling' for the THIRD straight season, all under current head coach Butch Davis (1-1 SU & ATS), despite going 3-5 in C-USA (tied for the third-worst record in the 14-team league). Meanwhile, Arkansas St is headed to a bowl game for NINTH straight year, including SIX in a row under head coach Blake Anderson, although he's only 1-4 SU & ATS in the postseason,.

FIU became bowl-eligible on Nov 23, when the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory, a 30-24 home win over Miami (Panthers were a three-TD underdog). Senior QB James Morgan has thrown for a modest 2,248 yards with just 13 TDs but he has not made many mistakes (three INTs in 319 attempts). FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (802 yards / 4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and Maxwell (609 yards / 5.3 YPA and 8 TDs). The receiving corps is led by Shemar Thornton and Tony Gaiter IV, who combined  to make 97 catches for 1,189 yards and nine TDs. The FIU defense allows 26.7 PPG (61st), doing much better against the pass (178.5 YPG ranks 6th), than the run (205.1 YPG ranks 111th)..

Arkansas State has battled adversity on and off the field this season, as head coach Blake Anderson's wife died from breast cancer Aug 19. On the field, junior QB Logan Bonner sustained a season-ending injury to his throwing hand in Week 4, after passing for 1,052 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. However, redshirt freshman QB Layne Hatcher went 5-3 after taking over for Bonner, throwing for 2,553 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs (his pass efficiency rate of 173.5 ranked first in the SBC). Hatcher was named the SBC's  Freshman of the Year. He's blessed with an outstanding trio of WRs, starting with Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year (senior WR Omar Bayless). Bayless has 84 catches for 1,473 yards with 16 TDs (his yards and TD totals rank second to only LSU's Ja'Marr Chase). Kirk Merritt had 64 catches for 763 yards and 11 TDs, despite playing in Bayless' shadow, while Jonathan Adams Jr. (58 receptions, four scores) provides Hatcher a solid third option. The Red Wolves' D is a liability, allowing 34.8 PPG (117th) on 481.9 YPG (127th).

Basically, the Red Wolves need to outscore their opponents to win. I expect them to do just that, here. FIU was blessed with SEVEN home games this season (went 6-1) but went 0-5 on the road, while allowing 40.4 PPG. This is NOT a road game but it's NOT a home game, either. Arkansas St entered its final game of the regular season on a four-game winning streak (averaging 38.0 PPG) but then 'got caught napping' in a 34-30 loss to South Alabama, which ended a nine-game losing streak. I respect Butch Davis but I do not believe FIU can match Arkansas St score for score and this program gets some extra kudos for appearing in its NINTH straight bowl game. As noted above, the Red Wolves are just 1-4 SU & ATS under Anderson in bowl games but it would be a nice story for Anderson to cap the season with a bowl win, after losing his wife Wendy, just before the the season opened. Christmas comes a few days early for Anderson and his team.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC East) is on the NE Patriots at 4:30 ET.

The 10-4 Buffalo Bills and 11-3 New England are both in the postseason but there still is plenty at stake when the AFC East rivals square off Saturday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. New England, clinched a record 11th consecutive trip to the playoffs last week but the Pats can wrap up the division title and has a chance to earn a first-round bye with a win against the visiting Bills. History is sure on New England's side, as following a hard-fought 16-10 victory at Buffalo in Week 4 the Pats have won SIX straight against the Bills and 34 of the last 39! However, the Bills would argue, that was THEN and this is NOW. Buffalo has won FOUR of its last five, including road victories at Dallas and Pittsburgh, and holds a two-game edge for the fifth seed in the AFC and still has a shot at the division title with two wins and two losses by New England. However, that's NOT likely, as the Pats host the 3-11 Dolphins in Week 17.

Head coach Sean McDermott has done an excellent job with the Bills,as he has Buffalo in the postseason for the second time in his three years, after Buffalo had missed the previous 17 seasons. Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 59.3% for 2,876 yards with an 18-9 TD/INT ratio. He also has run for 467 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from a being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (28) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons plus has two more games to add to that total. Allen helps the Bills rushing game (see above), while rookie Singletary (729 yards / 5.4 YPA) and the ageless Gore (573 yards / 3.6 YPA) join him to give the Bills the NFL's fifth-best rushing attack (134.9 YPG). Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (71 / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (60 / 11.2 YPC / 6 TDs). The Buffalo D is playing as well as any the last month, limiting THREE of four opponents to 15 points or less and now ranks second in points allowed (15.9 PPG) and third in total D (291.9 YPG) on the season.

That said, NO team has played better defense in 2019 than the Pats. New England ranks first in scoring D (12.9 PPG) , as well as total D (268.4 YPG). The defense has been the key to a season in which Tom Brady has looked 'old,' the running game has never really produced with any consistency and the receiving corps has struggled with injuries and basically, a lack of quality talent. Brady has thrown for 3,565 yards with 21 TDs (his 17th straight season of at least 20) and seven INTs, hardly one of his better seasons. The running game ranks 19th, averaging only 101.8 YPG (Michel has 742 yards on just 3.6 YPA). Edelman (92 catches / 6 TDs) continues to play like the Energizer Bunny but other than RB White, who has 65 catches, the remaining group of New England receivers leave a lot to be desired. However, despite ranking 18th in total offense (349.9 YPG), the Pats are finding a way to average 26.6 PPG (8th-best).

Here's the bottom line. Gillette Stadium opened in 2002 and has been a 'house of  horrors' for Buffalo, as the Bills have won just TWO of 17 visits there. One of the victories occurred when Tom Brady was serving a suspension and the other time being when Brady just played a half. I gave kudos to Buffalo's McDermott earlier (with good reason) but he's 0-5 vs the Patriots, losing by an average margin of  15.6 PPG. As noted earlier, the Patriots are averaging 26.8 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 28th in passing and are 22nd in points (20.8), having scored 17 or fewer points in HALF of its 14 games. What's more, the only teams the Bills have beaten that now own a winning record are the 8-6 Titans and the 8-6 Steelers (reminder: Pats are 11-3). Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Total of the Week is on Central Michigan/SD State Over at 2:00 ET.

9-3 San Diego State is going to its 10th straight bowl and 9th in a row under head coach Rocky Long. Aztecs are headed to Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque for the New Mexico Bowl. Long still has plenty of ties in New Mexico, as he was the Lobos' starting QB from 1969-1971 and then was the head coach at his alma for 11 years (1998-2008), leading New Mexico to five bowl appearances. San Diego State won six of its final eight games and waiting the Aztecs will be the 8-5 Central Michigan Chippewas, who lost 26-21 to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC championship game on Dec 7. However, Central Michigan made the biggest turnaround in the nation this season under Jim McElwain, who took over as head coach last December after John Bonamego was fired following a 1-11 season. McElwain was named MAC Coach of the Year after leading the Chippewas to an 8-5 record and their 10th bowl game in the last 14 years. 

The Chippewas rely on an offense that averages 31.9 PPG (44th) on 444.4 YPG (27th). Quinten Dormady took over after Central Michigan lost starting QB David Moore to an NCAA suspension after he tested positive for a banned substance. He's passed for 2,148 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs. He's got a solid trio of WRs led Pimpleton (All-MAC 1st team), who led the conference in both receptions (73) and receiving yards (771). RBs Ward (1,082 / 6.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and Lewis (977 yards / 5.5 YPA / 11 TDs) give Dormady excellent 'cover.' CMU's defense is average, allowing 26.8 PPG (62nd), although DE Sean Adesanya led the MAC with 14.5 tackles-for-loss and was second in sacks with seven. LB Troy Brown led the team in tackles (78) and interceptions (three) plus ranks second in the MAC with 14.0 tackles-for-loss.

It's 'being kind' by saying that the Aztecs feature an uninspiring offense, as SDSU comes in averaging 19.0 PPG (119th). Senior QB Ryan Agnew (11 TDs / 5 INTs) missed the Aztecs’ 13-3 win over BYU on Nov. 30 due to a left calf injury but is expected to return for the bowl game.The team's rushing game is virtually non-existent, averaging 135.3 YPG (99th) on 3.3 YPA. Washington is SDSU's leading rusher and he's gained only 500 yards (3.3 YPA). However, the Aztecs' D is allowing only 12.8 PPG (4th) on 288.7 YPG (5th). The team's rush D allows just 72.4 YPG (2nd) and ranks ninth with 15 INTs. LB Kyahva Tezino, CB Luq Barcoo plus DJ Myles Cheatum and Cameron Thomas were all Mountain West first team selections. Tezino leads the Aztecs in tackles (96) and QB hurries (22), while Barcoo is tied for the national lead in total interceptions (eight), pass breakups (16) and recorded 51 tackles.

SD St has had a roller-coaster of a season that included wins over UCLA, Fresno State and BYU but all featured losses to Utah State, Nevada and Hawaii. The Aztecs will need to get creative to keep pace with a Central Michigan offense that's averaged 37.6 PPG since Dormady took over as its starting QB. The Chippewas have a well-designed offense and the weather looks fine (sunny and in the 40s at kick-off is the forecast). It's true that there are times when one wonders if SDSU's offense will EVER score but the Aztecs did average 19.0 PPG. Remember, this over/under total is the LOWEST of all 41 bowl games and if the Aztecs can hit their season average, this game will 'fly' over. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans 'cooled off' the red-hot Titans last Sunday in Nashville, edging Tennessee 24-21. The victory gives the Texans a 9-5 record and they can clinch the AFC South division for the FOURTH  time in five seasons on Saturday afternoon when they visit the suddenly streaking Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose four-game winning streak is the team's longest since a five-game run in 2016.

QB Deshaun Watson was selected to the Pro Bowl for the second straight year, as he nears another 4,000-yard campaign. When on, Watson is among the very best in the league but he's been known to be inconsistent. Watson is completing 67.8% for 3,668yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs, while adding 376 rushing yards (5.0 YPA) and seven more scores. WR DeAndre Hopkins joins him as a Pro Bowl selection. He has 99 catches with seven TDs and needs one catch to record his third career 100-reception season. Fellow WR Fuller is a terrific partner but has struggled with injuries (not sure about his availability for this one). TEs Akins and Fells each have 31 catches with Fells tying Hopkins for a team-high seven TD receptions. RB Hyde (1,030 yards / 4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) has been a 'savior,' stepping in when Lamar Smith was lost for the year in the preseason. Houston is hopeful that defensive lineman J.J. Watt (pectoral), who has been out since Week 9, could return in the postseason. Houston's defense has been up-and-down without him, allowing 23.6 PPG (19th) on 379.4 YPG (28th).

The Bucs were just 3-7 after 10 games but as noted above, have won FOUR in a row but need to win these last two weeks for just their SECOND winning season in the last nine years. QB Jameis Winston continued his hot streak in last week's 38-17 win at Detroit, passing for 458 yards and four TDs. Tampa Bay owns the NFL's third-ranked offense (400.1 YPG), led by the league's top-ranked passing attack (308.8 YPG). Winston became the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 450 yards in consecutive games (vs Indy in Week 15 and against Detroit in Week 16). He leads the league with 4,573 passing yards on the season and could become just the 12th player in league history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. WR Goodwin leads the team with 86 yards (15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) but is nursing an ailing hamstring. What's more, Mike Evans (67 catches / 17.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is now on injured reserve. The running game is woeful, averaging 91.4 YPG (3.5 YPA), ranking 28th. The defense is allowing 350.1 YPG (15th) but 28.4 PPG, which ranks 30th.

With the pressure is off at 3-7, the Buccaneers put together a four-game win streak. Big deal. Those victories have been against the Lions, Colts, Jags and Falcons, who take a combined record of 19-36-1 (.348) into Week 16. Winston may have 30 TD passes but he also has 24 INTs, SIX more than any other QB. Watson is an elite QB with dual threat  skills, while Winston just could wind up with a 30-30 season (TD-INT). The Buccaneers are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS at home this season and I see little reason for them to 'spoil' Houston's chance to clinch its division.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Madness Play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.

Drew Brees threw for 325 yards and five TDs (zero INTs) last Sunday, leading the Saints to 46 points. However, the 'kicker' is that New Orleans allowed the 49ers to score 48 points while rolling up 516 yards. The loss dropped the Saints (along with the Seahawks) one game behind the 49ers in the race for the NFC's  No. 1 seed . However, the Saints (as well as Seattle) got some help on Sunday from the Falcons, who beat the 49ers 29-22 in San Francisco. Seattle won its Sunday game at Carolina and is now 11-3 and owns the tie-breaker over San Francisco in the NFC West The 10-3 Saints reside in the NFC South but can now tie those two NFC West teams at 11-3 atop the NFC along with 11-3 Green Bay (tie-breakers pending) with a win over the visiting 6-7 Indianapolis Colts, who enter having lost FIVE of their last six.

The Colts were once 5-2 but they're now one loss from playoff elimination. QB Jacoby Brissett has done a good job at QB (was thrust into the starter's role with the abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck), completing 63.2% for 2,496 yards with 18 TDs and just six INTs. However, he threw for a pair of TD passes for the first time since Sep 29 in last Sunday's 38-35 setback to Tampa Bay. Brissett has been greatly hampered by the fact that four-time Pro Bowl selection T.Y. Hilton has missed five of his last six games with an ailing calf, after sitting out only four games in first seven seasons. Hilton has played in just seven games this season (35 catches / 10.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and will be a game-time decision here. Third-year RB Marlon Mack returned last week and played with a broken hand (900 yards / 4.4 YPA) but had just 38 yards on 13 carries. Here, he will face a New Orleans rush defense allowing just 94.Y2 YPG (4th). Indy's defense has been shredded for 69 points the last two games and can't be looking forward to seeing Drew Brees.

The Saints went 5-0 while Drew Brees was out with a thumb injury early this season. but while Bridgewater deserves kudos for the job he did, it's GREAT to have Brees back. After last week's game, he's completing 72.5% on the season with 17 TDs and just four INTs (109.5 QB rating). RB Alvin Kamara's offensive numbers haven't been up to his lofty standards but he's got 612 rushing yards (4.4 YPA) and has added 68 catches. He's ably helped by Murray, who has 533 yards (4.7 YPA) with five TDs. WR Michael Thomas has shown no sign of a letdown, as he made 11 catches for 134 yards last week to join Antonio Brown as the lone NFL players to have more than one season with 120-plus receptions and 1,400-plus receiving yards. Thomas has 121 catches  for 1,424 yards (7 TDs) and he and Brees will exploit an Indianapolis' pass defense that allowed Tampa Bay's Winston to throw for 456 yards and four TDPs last Sunday.

The Saints really need a win here to join Seattle and San Francisco at 11-3, as those two will meet in Week 17, where one HAS to lose. The Saints have NOT been as dominant at home recently (as in the past) but this Indy team is 'limping' to the finish line. The Saints will honor the 10-year anniversary of their only Super Bowl win, by bringing members of the 2009 team together for a reunion prior to the game. New Orleans posted a 31-17 victory over Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV. Another 14-pont margin, at a minimum, is expected here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.

The 9-4 Buffalo Bills had a three-game winning streak come to an end in a 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and are staring at a tough two-game road stretch as they try to lock up a playoff spot. The Bills are currently the No. 1 wild card team but they must  visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and  then  have to travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. The 8-5 Steelers are surging with wins in THREE straight and SEVEN of their last eight, but the red-hot Titans are also 8-5 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker), after winning FOUR in a row. If the Titans beat the Texans earlier today, the loser of this game will be 'sweating.'

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has make great strides in his second season, as he'thrown foir 2,737 yards (17 TDs / 8 INTs) plus run for 439 yards and eight TDs. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (27) and 12 rushing TDs (16) in his first two seasons plus has three more games to add to that total. However, he struggled against a tough defense last week, completing just 17 of 39 (43.6%) for a modest 146 yards (QB rating of only 62.6). Buffalo's running game is averaging 135.3 YPG (5th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks second in points allowed (16.3 per) and third total D (296.8YPG).

The Steelers lost their first three games and Big Ben was lost in Week 2, for the season. However, using a combination of Mason Rudolph and Devlin "Duck" Hodges at QB, Mike Tomlin has his team right in the playoff hunt. Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts with last week's 23-17 triumph over Arizona. "He's been able to gain more traction and gain more exposure," Tomlin told reporters of Hodges, who is completing 71.3 percent of his passes and went 16-of-19 for 152 yards and a touchdown last week. Some good news could be coming Hodges' way, as RB James Conner (shoulder) and wide-out JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) both returned to practice this week. Kudos to the jobs Rudolph and Hodges have done but Pittsburgh's turnaround has been fueled by its defense, which has allowed  just 14.6 PPG over its last five games.

The 'knock' on Buffalo has been that the only team with a current winning record that the Bills have beaten is Tennessee (8-5, after four straight wins). As for Pittsburgh, while Baltimore's John Harbaugh is likely to be named coach of the year, Mike Tomlin deserves serious consideration. His Steelers opened 0-3 and again, Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. However, the Steelers have won EIGHT of 10 since that 0-3 start, losing only in OT at home to Baltimore and 21-7 at Cleveland. This is Pittsburgh's final home game of the season and a win here plus a win at the Jets in Week 16 would get them to 10 wins, meaning its Week 17 game at Baltimore may not need to be won. We saw Allen struggle last week vs Baltimore's D (at home) and here on the road, Pittsburgh's D should again give him fits. Pittsburgh lost two of its first three home games (by two points to Seattle and in OT by three to Baltimore) but is 5-0 SU and ATS in its other five home games (has won FOUR straight), holding those opponents to 13.2 PPG. Steelers get the win.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

The 8-5 Los Angeles Rams are two games better than the 6-7 Dallas Cowboys but they face an uphill climb to make the playoffs with just three games remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are below .500 and mired in a three-game losing streak, but currently are tied for the NFC East lead with Philadelphia, while owning the tiebreaker due to a 37-10 Week 7 home win over the Eagles. LA's postseason chances appeared to be on 'life-support' following a 45-6 drubbing by Baltimore in Week 12 but the Rams have rebounded with lopsided victories over Arizona and Seattle to move within one game of Minnesota for the sixth seed in the NFC. In contrast, the Cowboys have lost THREE in a row and badly need a win here, as they travel to Philadelphia next Sunday

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC) but they managed only 35 points in a three-game stretch (1-2),  before erupted for 62 points in back-to-back victories in Weeks 13 and 14. Jared Goff threw for 717 yards and four TDs in the two wins, after posting QB ratings of 51.2, 69.9 and 62.0 with five INTs and zero TDs while averaging only 209.3 YPG passing in from Weeks 10 through Week 12. Is the Rams' offense back? Maybe but I'm not sure? Gurley is NOT the same player he was last season, WR Woods has just one TD reception all season and fellow WR Cooks' miserable season continued against the Seahawks, and his limited playing time (27 of 70 offensive snaps) is another concern to add to the list. He's been held to just 12 receptions for 162 yards over the past seven games (note: he's averaged 80 catches for over 1,200 yards the last five seasons).

Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards (4,122) while Ezekiel Elliott (1,071 yards) and Amari Cooper (1,054 yards) each rank fifth in their respective categories, marking the first time Dallas has a 4,000-yard passer along with a 1,000-yard rusher and receiver. However, while Dallas is averaging an NFL-high 430.8 YPG, the Cowboys' average of 25.7 PPG ranks just 9th-best. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has been reasonably consistent all season and enters this contest allowing 20.5 PPG (12th) on 326.2 YPG (8th).

I realize the Cowboys are in a funk but a win here gives them a chance to clinch the NFC East next Sunday. The Rams' win over Arizona hardly proves anything and while the Rams dominated a strong Seattle team last Sunday, the Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. My bet says the Cowboys "come up big," while the Rams playoff hopes all but disappear with a loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.

The 9-4 Minnesota Vikings hope to move closer to a playoff spot when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Minnesota is one game ahead of the LA Rams in the battle for the NFC's second wild-card spot but also stands just one game behind Seattle for the No. 1 wild card spot, as well as one game behind the first-place Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. As for the 5-8 Chargers, they have already been eliminated from playoff contention, missing the playoffs for the EIGHTH time in the last 10 seasons.

Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter recorded three sacks in last Sunday's 20-7 victory over the Detroit Lions, raising his season total to 12.5 and career count to 52.5 (note: he's the youngest player, at 25 years, 40 days, in NFL history to reach 50 career sacks. He's the star of a defense that has allowed 14 or less points in five games and enters this contest allowing 19.2 PPG (7th). Dalvin Cook (1,108 RY / 4.6 YPA / 13 TDs plus 50 catches for 503 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs, while WR Stefon Diggs (56 catches / 997 yards / 17.8 YPC / 5 TDs) will top 1,000 receiving yards on Sunday. That will make them the first Minnesota duo since RB Adrian Peterson (1,383 rushing) and Sidney Rice (1,312 receiving) in 2009 to each top 1,000 yards. QB Kirk Cousins is often criticized but he's s completing 70.1 percent on the season with 24 TDs and just four INTs (112.0 QB rating ranks third-best).

Los Angeles established season highs for points, total offense (525 yards) and first downs (27) against Jacksonville in last Sunday's 45-10 win. Rivers has thrown for 3,748 yards and is almost assured of eclipsing 4,000 passing yards for the 7th straight season and for the 11th time in the last 12. However, he's thrown 15 INTs putting him on pace for the third-most in any of his seasons. WR Allen has 81 catches but fellow WR Williams has 40 catches with just one TD, after catching 10 last season.  RB Gordon has played in just nine games (only 523 yards on 4.0 YPC), while backup Ekeler has 481 yards (4.3 YPA) plus a 73 receptions (team-high 8 TD catches). LA's defense is allowing just 19.3 PPG and ALL eight of the team's losses have come by seven points or less.

Yes, the Chargers are MUCH better than their 5-8 record, as they own a plus-38 point differential. However, LA's late-game execution has doomed them repeatedly all season. In contrast, the Vikings pulled out a pair of narrow victories in November, helping their playoff push which has seen them win SEVEN of nine with Cousins throwing 21 TD passes against just two INTs in that nine-game stretch. The Vikings have only lost at KC and Seattle in their last nine games and as noted above, the Chargers have found ways to lose games all season. No "margin" to worry about here and I believe the Vikings win quite handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

The 10-3 Seattle Seahawks will travel to Charlotte to take on the 5-8 Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Seahawks had a five-game winning streak snapped with last week's 28-12 loss at the Los Angeles Rams and are one game behind the first-place San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, while holding the top wild-card spot. Carolina won FIVE of six after an 0-2 start but at 5-3, has dropped FIVE straight games. That led to the firing of ninth-year head coach Ron Rivera earlier this month, with Perry Fewell being named interim coach for the remainder of the season

The Seahawks have posted EIGHT straight winning seasons under coach Pete Carroll and with a win on Sunday, can clinch a playoff berth for the SEVENTH time in eight seasons. QB Russell Wilson has thrown 26 TD passes while being intercepted just five times but after posting a 118.2 QB rating through his first nine games, Wilson is at just 82.7 over the past four (4 TDs and 4 INTs during the stretch). Seattle's had a excellent set of complementary RBs with Chris Carson (1.057 yards on 4.3 YPA and 5 TDs) as the primary option and Rashaad Penny (370 yards on 5.7 YPA and 4 TDs) as the change of pace. However, Penny suffered an ACL injury on his first offensive touch last Sunday against the Rams and is through for the season. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is no more, as Seattle is allowing 24.7 PPG (23rd) on 335.5 YPG (26th)

Fewell said that Kyle Allen, who has thrown 12 interceptions over the past seven games, will remain the QB over third-round pick Will Grier. Just maybe, the Panthers actually do miss Cam Newton. Newton underwent foot surgery earlier this week and there are no guarantees he will be back with Carolina for the final season of his contract. Then there is Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has 1,220 rushing yards and 726 receiving yards and is looking to join Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig as the only players in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He needs 274 yards receiving in the last three games to join that elite club. The Carolina defense is allowing 27.7 PPG (5th-most) on 373.9 YPG (9th-most).

The Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. I don't make too much of Seattle's loss at the Rams. The Seahawks have won seven of the 10 regular-season meetings with the Panthers and are 4-0 at Carolina in the regular season during the Russell Wilson era. Let's NOT forget that Seattle was 6-0 SU on the road prior to last Sunday OR that Carolina has been outscored on average 31.2-to-18.2 PPG during its current five-game slide. Seattle clinches a playoff spot with a win, as Carolina's slide continues.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Chi/GB at 1:00 ET.

The Bears and Packers will meet for the 200th time Sunday at legendary Lambeau Field. The forecast at kick-off as the team's renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry is 17 degrees with a wind chill factor of eight, according to the National Weather Service. The high is expected to be 19, nine degrees below average for Dec 15 in Green Bay. The Bears have won THREE straight and FOUR of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot at 7-6, while the 10-3 Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. These teams opened the 2019 season with the Packers winning 10-3 at Chicago back on Thursday, Sep .

The Packers were out-yarded by the Bears in that opening week win when Chicago QB when Trubisky was playing terrible. However, Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak. "He has continued to gain confidence and trust with himself and then with his teammates," QB coach Dave Ragone told the Chicago Tribune. "Hopefully that continues the rest of the season. But you've seen the progress. Things have been clearer. Sharper." Veteran WR Allen Robinson (76 catches / 7 TDs on the season) has been the beneficiary of Trubisky's solid play, recording 19 catches for 265 yards and four TDs during the 3-0 run. Rookie RB David Montgomery (just 680 RY on 3.5 YPA) is also "coming around," with 161 rushing yards the last two games, while averaging 4.5 YPA.

Green Bay is averaging a pedestrian 18.8 points during its last five games, despite meeting the Redskins and Giants during this time frame. Those issues were clearly evident in a sluggish 20-15 home victory over a three-win Washington team that gave Green Bay all it could handle last Sunday. "I just know we're not where we need to be as a football team," head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters this week. "I still think ... I'm optimistic we can get there." Green Bay had 167 passing yards and 174 rushing yards in last week's win, after posting 243 and 79, respectively, in a victory at the New York Giants the previous Sunday. There is a sense that the offense needs to find its identity for the stretch run. Aaron Rodgers has a terrific 23-2 TD-to-INT ratio on the season but he's had a QB rating of over 100.0 in four different games this season, but also four with under 90.0. He has clearly become highly reliant on RB Aaron Jones (779 YR on 4.4 YPA with 12 TDs plus 45 catches with 3 TDs) in first-year coach Matt LaFleur's offense but Jones has four games with at least 150 yards from scrimmage and five with fewer than 50.

No doubt the Bears are playing better and Green Bay is not a "complete" team but Rodgers is 18-5 as the starter against the Bears and including the playoffs, the Packers have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with their bitter rivals. Yes, the Bears have won FOUR of five but the wins have come over the QB-less 3-9-1 Lions (twice), the 2-11 Giants (currently on a 9-game losing skid) and the 'imploding' Cowboys. It will be cold in Green Bay but sunny and we get to go "over" a very low number. I sure don't trust the Bears but on "current form," I am beginning to have some faith in Trubisky. That said, Rodgers is overdue for a "big game" and why not here against the team's most-hated rival and one that Green Bay has dominated the last decade (see above). This one is Goin' Over (no 10 FGs in this one, like last week's 'nightmare' with the Dolphins/Jets)!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Pats at 4:25 ET.

The New England Patriots opened the season 8-0 but a Week 9 loss at Baltimore (37-20) ended the team's run at replicating the 16-0 regular season they accomplished back in . Now, as team welcomes the KC Chiefs to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, last Sunday's 28-22 loss at Houston leaves the Pats at 10-2, tied for teh NFL's best record with the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks and Ravens),. However, the pats have lost their grip on the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs Ravens own the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win). The Patriots look to rebound from their second loss in four weeks and clinch their 11th consecutive postseason berth against visiting Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs suffered a pair of narrow defeats to New England last season, 37-34 in the regular season (MNF in New England) and a 37-31 home loss in the AFC championship game , one that kept them from reaching the Super Bowl. However, the 8-4 Chiefs can clinch the AFC West title with a win (would also need an Oakland loss) and in the process, could end the Patriots' 18-game home winning streak.

QB Patrick Mahomes 'exploded' on the scene in 2018, throwing for 5,097 yards with 50 TDs and just 12 INTs (113.8 QB rating) to win the league's MVP award. He opened strong again in 2019, throwing for 1,510 yards (377.5 per) in KC's 4-0 start with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, KC then lost back-to-back home games to the Colts (19-13) and Texans (31-24). The following week in Denver (on a Thursday night), Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap that kept him sidelined for the next two games. He returned in Week 10 at home against the Titans and while he threw for 446 yards, KC lost 35-32. The Chiefs have won two in a row since (sandwiched around a bye week), but Mahomes has thrown for just 182 and 175 yards in those wins. Mahomes sure doesn't get much help from his running game, with Darrel Williams going on injured reserve and Damien Williams (rib) still not practicing. The leaves veteran LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson to carry the load, which they haven't done very well. KC is averaging 94.5 YPG (24th). The defense has started to play better but KC still can't stop the run, allowing 141.3 YPG, third-worst in the NFL.

Tom Brady know all about not getting much support from his running game. New England barely averages more rushing yards than KC (96.3 YPG) but the Pats are averaging a pathetic 3.5 YPA, to KC's 4.2. New England's offense continues to sputter and only two late TD passes from Brady last week enabled the team to surpass 20 points for the first time in the last four games. Yes, Brady has 18 TD passes against six interceptions but he has barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes over the last three games and has not registered a QB rating of at least 100.0 since Week 5 at Washington. Since opening with seven TDs and zero INTs in his first three games, Brady's ratio is just 11-6 over the Pats' last nine games, as he's thrown one or zero TD passes SIX times. However, New England's defense has been superb, allowing an NFL-low 12.1 PPG on 258.0 YPG (2nd).

Here's the bottom line. Mahomes has not looked the same in his last two games and while New England's and Brady's recent play have caused some to say, "the Pats are finally becoming human," this is NOT the spot to go against them. The Patriots have lost to the Ravens and Texans, failed to cover against the Cowboys and only scored 17 points in beating the Eagles in their last four games (have averaged just 18.0 PPG in that span). However, the two losses have come on the road, NOT here in Foxboro. New England has won 22  straight home games (including the postseason), with 19 coming by SIX points or more. Want more? New England is coming off a loss and the Pats are a remarkable 42-16 ATS (that's 72.4%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.

San Francisco's defense is allowing a league-low of 250.9 YPG and ranks second in points allowed at 15.3 PPG. It held up well against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week, allowing just 20 points but still lost. I've always been somewhat skeptical of QB Jimmy Garoppolo but he's had a very good season, completing 69.0% for 2,896 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs (he's registered a QB rating of at least 110.2 in five of his last six games). He's done all this with a mediocre group of WRs, although TE Kittle (54 catches) is a "big time" performer. The running game averages 148.0 YPG, which ranks second-best to only Baltimore (Ravens are averaging a 'monster' 207.8 YPG). Keeping its RBs healthy as been a major issue, as Breida, Mostert and Coleman have all been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.

This has been some impressive season for the Saints, as when Brees missed five games due to a thumb injury, Bridgewater stepped in to go 5-0 as starter. Brees is back and while he's not quite the "Brees of old," he's completing 73.8% with 12 TDs and just four INTs (104.4 QB rating). WR Thomas has 110 catches and has been the "go-to" guy for both Brees and Bridgewater. The Saints miss Ingram (now with Baltimore) but in Kamara (587 yards on 4.7 YPA plus 64 catches) and Murray (464 yards on 4.4 YPA) make up a quality RB duo. The New Orleans D has been plenty good enough, allowing 20.7 PPG on 323.4 YPG.

Here's the rub. The 49ers opened 8-0 but in that span, they beat just ONE team with a winning record at the time of the game (Rams were 3-2). They are 2-2 their last four, losing to now 10-2 teams Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS their last 10 and have extra rest and preparation time (played on Thanksgiving), while the 49ers are off a physical road loss to Baltimore. To combat that, instead of flying home after last week's game in Baltimore, the 49ers opted to spend the week in Florida instead to avoid more cross-country flights and another time change (will it help?). It can't hurt but this is an off-surface and different environment for the 49ers playing on carpet inside a dome. In the end, Drew Brees owns a HUGE edge on Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, making the Saints a STRONG play at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins opened 0-7 but in Week 9, broke through for their first win, 26-18 at home over the NY Jets. The Dolphins upset the Colts the following week (Brissett was out for Indy) but then lost convincingly to the Bills and Browns. However, Miami played its best game of the year last week in beating the Eagles 37-31 as a 10-point home underdog. The Dolphins  now get a rematch with the Jets at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands. The Jets know all about bad starts, as they opened 0-4 and 1-7. The Jets looked great in winning three straight from Week 10 through 12 but threw in a major 'clunker' in Week 13 (naturally!). After scoring 34 points in each contest during their three-game winning streak, the Jets lost 22-6 at then-winless Cincinnati (0-11). New York totaled just 271 yards with two FGs, reminding all that they are the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!

Miami,erupted for season-high totals in points and yards (408) in its 37-31 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a season-high 365 yards and three TDs. Former first-round WR DeVante Parker continued his hot stretch with seven catches for career-high totals in yards (159) and TDs (two) against the Eagles. He has 20 catches the last three games and a team-high 53 on the season. Fitzgerald is pretty much counted on to produce the points for Miami, as the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in averaging 62.8 YPG on 3.1 YPA (the team's leading rusher has all of 201 yards!). Defense is a problem as well, as Miami is allowing 31.4 PPG, ranking dead-last in that category, as well.

Sam Darnold can 'feel Fitzgerald's pain,' as the Jets are one notch above the Dolphins, as their running game ranks 31st with 72.6 YPG (3.3 YPA). Good thing New York signed Le'Veon Bell, huh? Sam Darnold, who overcame a bout of mononucleosis earlier in the season, turned a season-high 48 passes against the Bengals into just a 58 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating -- totals that were his second-lowest of 2019 (239 yards without a TD or INT). However, let's NOT ignore that he entered last week's game having averaged 279.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and just ONE INT in leading the Jets to 34 points in each outing (all wins). By the way, Darnold's working with a pretty mediocre cast of receivers, and I'm being kind.

Here's the 'dope.' Both QBs are on "do it alone missions" but the good news is that they face VERY vulnerable opposing pass Ds. The Dolphins have allowed 29 TD passes, while intercepting just EIGHT passes in 395 attempts. Then there is Miami's non-existent pass rush, which has a league-low 16 sacks. Want a comparison? No other team has fewer than 20, with Carolina leading the league with 46!. The Jets pass D is not quite as bad, allowing a more modest 19 TD passes but the Jets only have seven INTs in 447 pass attempts against.

The weather will not be quite as nice as it was in Miami when the teams met back on Nov 3rd but no rain or snow in the forecast (zero percent chance of precipitation) with kickoff temperatures around 40 degrees (good football weather). As noted above, Fitzpatrick has no running attack so the game plan is "just air it out!" Throw early and often, as the Miami defense can't stop anyone (see above for a reminder). Darnold has to be 'licking his chops' looking at Miami's defense on film and he's got some "making up to do" off last week's 'ugly' effort at Cincy and that Week 9 loss at Miami. In that one, Darnold threw a TD pass about five minutes into the contest and then Miami's dreadful D held the Jets out of the end zone the rest of the game. The Jets will score on the Dolphins, who will surely keep up enough for this game to 'fly' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.

The SEC has been the dominant conference for quite some time now and the question after the winner of this year's title game is crowned will be, "Will there be ONE or TWO schools from the SEC in CFP 2019's 'Final 4?' Georgia lost just one game in 2019 (a 20-19 two-OT shocker at home to South Carolina) but its resume also includes wins over three teams in the top-12 at the time of those games. The 4th-ranked 11-1 Bulldogs bring a defense to Atlanta allowing just 10.4 PPG (2nd) on 247.0 YPG (4th) to face a 12-0 LSU team (No. 1 in the AP and No. 2 in the CFP rankings) , which owns wins over then-No. 9 Texas, then-No. 7 Florida, then No. 9 Auburn and then-No. 3 Alabama on its list of 'victims.' The LSU offense ranks both second in scoring (48.7 PPG) and in total yards (560.4 YPG). This is LSU's first appearance in the SEC title game since 2011, while Georgia is in it for the third consecutive season.

The Georgia offense is hardly pedestrian, as it averages 32.9 PPG on 420.6 YPG. QB Jake Fromm is a three-year starter who owns a 21-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2019 and a 75-16 ratio in his career (he's 34-6 as a starter). However, WR Lawrence Cager (ankle surgery) is out plus freshman WR George Pickens is suspended for the first half Saturday (both Cager and Pickens have 33 catches, tied for a team-best). Junior RB D’Andre Swift ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing yards (1,203 yards on 6.2 YPA with 7 TDs), leads a rushing attack averaging 200.0 YPG on 5.7 YPA. He left last week’s 52-7 rout of Georgia Tech with a left shoulder injury but he's listed as probable against LSU.

LSU's Joe Burrow is the first player in SEC history to pass for 4,000 yards (setting a conference record with 4,366 yards) and at least 40 TDs (44), Burrow passed for 352 yards and three TDs in last week’s 50-7 rout of Texas A&M and is currently the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman. and he ranks second nationally in passing yards, touchdowns, passing yards per game (363.8) and passing efficiency (203). WR Ja’Marr Chase has 70 catches and leads the country with 17 TD receptions, while ranking second with 1,457 yards (20.8 YPC) Junior WR Justin Jefferson  has 81 catches and has hauled in 13 TDs. RB Edwards-Helaire has run for 1,233 yards (6.8 YPA and 16 TDs),  to lead a running game which averages 170.4 YPG on 5.0 YPA. The defense is allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) but has looked a little shaky at times late in the season.

Maybe I'm 'nuts' going against LSU's Burrow but this Georgia D will be the best unit LSU has faced all season. Talking about the LSU defense, it has allowed 38 points to both Vanderbilt and Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Mississippi. Georgia KNOWS it has to win here or it will miss the 'Final 4.' I WANT the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin turned things around quickly though, winning NINE of 10 to capture the C-USA East at 7-1 (9-3, overall).

Bill Clark was UAB's head coach in 2014 (6-6) but the school shut down the football program in 2015 and 2016. Clark remained as head coach when the school resumed play in 2017, going 8-5 after a 41-6  Bahamas Bowl loss to Ohio. However, UAB won the C-USA West title last year (7-1) and then beat Middle Tenn St in the title game, 27-25. That led to a 37-13 win over Northern Illinois  in the Boca Raton Bowl to finish 11-3. The Blazers are back in the C-USA championship game again, after going 9-3 (6-2 in league play), advancing over La Tech (also 6-2) due to a 20-14 home win over the Bulldogs on Nov 23.

Things did not look good for UAB when it opened November with a 30-7 loss at Tennessee and followed with an 'ugly' 37-2 loss at Southern Miss. However, the Blazers finished with THREE straight wins. Two were over 1-11 UTEP and 4-8 North Texas but that Nov 23rd home win over La Tech, turned out to be the tie-breaker. Starting QB Tyler Johnston went down with a knee injury in early November (he did make a brief return in last Saturday’s West-clinching win at North Texas) and freshman backup Dylan Hopkins has barely been serviceable in relief. In his four starts, he's completed 37 of 68 (54.4%) for 483 yards with two TDs and three INTs. That's NOT good enough when one's team is averaging a modest 161.2 YPG rushing, with the team's leading rusher (Brown), accounting for only 462 yards on 3.9 YPA.  UAB's defense will have to "win it," as the Blazers are allowing just 18.5 PPG (15th) on 271. YPG (5th).

Keeping FAU's offense in check will be a tough job, as during the Owls' 9-1 run (7-3 ATS) run their last 10 games, they've averaged 37.4 PPG. QB Chris Robison has emerged as an effective game-manager for Kiffin, passing for 3,125 yards with 22 TDPs and just five INTs. FAU's running game is no better than UAB's (it averages 155.1 YPG) but as already alluded to, FAU has regularly put points on the board in its closing run (held under 30 points just ONCE in its last 10 games).

UAB was able to win 27-25 at Middle Tenn St in last year's title game, after losing 27-3 to the same Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro only the week before. There’s no similar quick-rematch angle in 2019 and while QB Johnston has not yet officially been ruled out for UAB, I don't think UAB can "keep up" with FAU here at home, where the Owls have averaged 37.2 PPG under Kiffin. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008 and the Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 11-1 Mountaineers enter this year's SBC championship game (played at Boone, NC in the Mountaineers' own Kidd Brewer Stadium) ranked 20th in the AP poll and 21st in the CFP rankings. Their opponent will the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, just like last year in the SBC's inaugural title game. ULL is 10-2 on the season and will be trying avenge not only last years 30-19 title-game loss but a 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian St back on Oct 9 of this year. That said, the "revenge angle" hasn't worked well for ULL, which has lost all SEVEN meetings with App St since 2014.

ULL features three RBs with 750 or more rushing yards. Elijah Mitchell (1,007 yards / 6.0 YPA /  14 TDs) leads the pack, followed by Raymond Calais (833 yards / 7.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Trey Ragas (762 yards / 7.5 YPA / 11 TDs). The trio combines for the nation's 6th-best rushing game (274.2 YPG). Junior QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,450 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. ULL enters averaging 38.8 PPG (12th) plus owns a defense allowing just 17.8 PPG (11th) 

Appalachian State averages 38.9 PPG (11th) led by QB Zac Thomas, who has thrown for 2,427 yards with 24 TD passes and just six INTs this season (he is 21-3 as a starter). The Mountaineers don't run quite as well as ULL but RB Darrynton Evans has rushed for 1,250 yards and 16 TDs this season, adding three more scores as a receiver plus returning a KO for a TD. Like ULL, App St's defense has held opponents in check, allowing 18.8 PPG (18th) on 321.2 YPG (19th).

First-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz had big shoes to fill with the departure of predecessor Scott Satterfield to Louisville but he's delivered "big time," as Appalachian State's 11-1 record is the best 12-game mark in Sun Belt Conference history.  What's more, the team is coming off arguably its most complete effort of the year in a dominating 48-13 beatdown of Troy. QB Thomas has 45 TDPs and only 10 INTs the last two-plus years and his backfield mate, RB Evans, has compiled 2,437 rushing yards and 23 TD over last two campaigns (note: Evans recorded 218 all-purpose yards, including 111 rushing and a 97-yard kickoff return in the 2018 Sun Belt title game). As good as App St has been against conference opponents (42-7 in Sun Belt games), I won't discount ULL in this one. The Ragin’ Cajuns haven't lost since that 17-7 Appalachian State win back on Oct 9. It's been SIX straight wins since, averaging 39.5 PPG. Then again, the Mountaineers have won all seven matchups since 2014 (when they joined the SBC) by an average of  20.5 points and 22.8 at home. I'm staying away from an ATS pick but will be "all over' the total in this one. NO WAY we will see another 17-7 game, like back on Oct 9. Both teams have excellent defense but their respective offenses will be the dominant units in this game. App St is averaging 43.7 PPG at home this season and for ULL to 'hang,' the Ragin’ Cajuns will have to score. This one is Goin' Over! 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys enter this game with identical 6-6 records but while the Bears sit two games out of the sixth and final NFC playoff , the Cowboys actually lead the NFC East by one game and for all intents and purposes, remain in control of their playoff destiny. The Cowboys have seen a 3-0 start to the 2019 season go 'south, as Dallas followed its 3-0 start with an 0-3 skid and after back-to-back wins over NFC East rivals Philadelphia and New York, has lost THREE of four (Cowboys enter on a two-game slide). The Bears opened 3-1 but then lost FOUR in a row. However, Chicago has kept its slim playoff hopes alive by winning THREE of four (more on that, in a little bit).

Dallas was held to just three FGs by the Pats in a four-point Week 12 road loss and then surrendered 23 unanswered points to the Bills in a 26-15 defeat at home on Thanksgiving. Dallas has the No. 1 offense in the NFL at 432.8 YPG, as Dak Prescott has passed for an NFL-best 3,788 yards with 23 TDs, 11 INTs and three rushing TDs. RB Ezekiel Elliott has 990 yards rushing (4.4 YPA and 7 TDs)  plus WR Cooper has 64 catches (15.2 YPC) for 7 TDs. However, Dallas couldn't get in the end zone at New England plus repeatedly came up empty after scoring on the opening drive vs Buffalo. With over 430 YPG of offense, Dallas should be scoring more than 25.8 PPG (ranks 8th). The Dallas D has done a decent job, ranking 8th in both points allowed (19.7) and yards allowed (321.6).

Chicago's defense has again been strong in 2019, as the Bears are allowing just 17.3 PPG (4th) on 319.7 YPG (7th). However, the Trubisky-led offense has averaged only 17.7 PPG (27th) on 281.8 YPG (29th). However, Trubisky got untracked against on Thanksgiving by throwing for a season-high 338 yards to go with three scores (he directed a winning 90-yard  drive at Detroit). WR Anthony Miller had a breakout game with a career-high nine catches for 140 yards while fellow WR Allen Robinson added eight receptions for 86 yards and a score. Rookie RB David Montgomery had 75 yards rushing on only 16 carries, after he was limited to 40 yards or less in FIVE of his previous seven contests (he's Chicago's leading rusher at 594 yards, averaging 3.5 YPA for a  team averaging only 79.3 YPG on the ground)

Are we really seeing a Trubisky turnaround? He is 94 of 145 for 979 yards, eight TDs, four INTs and a 91.1 rating in the past four games. However, the three wins have come against last-place teams like the Lions (twice) and the Giants (Detroit & New York are a combined  5-18-1). Crunching the numbers further, we find that Tubisky has a 124.4 QB rating in two games against the Lions this season and a passer rating of  72.1 versus the rest of  the league! I'm sure no fan of Dallas or beleaguered head coach Jason Garrett but while the Coboys haven't done too well beating good teams, they have been able to get past the beatable ones (save the Jets). "Talk is cheap right? We've talked a lot," QB Prescott said. "We've talked a bunch and got ourselves right to where we are. In a moment like this I say hell with the talking and I'm going to do more. I'm going to work harder and if you're a young guy looking for somebody to figure it out, how to do it, yeah, look at me and some of these other guys because that's exactly what we're doing -- putting our head down focusing and doubling down on ourselves." Dak CAN and WILL be able to beat the Bears and Trubisky.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota  atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row  since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019).

The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best).

MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2!

I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However,  Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added  two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning  record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much!  One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home.

Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17.

The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010.

Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and  a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd).

There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0%  for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games).  DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th.

Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett  back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Ten/Ind Over at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season. What could be different here? The Titans have produced 842 total yards over the past two games and are averaging 29.4 PPG over the last five, third in the NFL during that span behind only Baltimore (39.3) and San Francisco (30.8). Tannehill is also tied for third in the NFL with Lamar Jackson in passer rating (111.4), behind only Minnesota's Kirk Cousins (114.8) and Seattle's Russell Wilson (112.1). I won't buck Indy and the team's domination of the Titans in this venue, nor will I 'step in front of' Indy's ATS record its last 10 against a wining team. However, for the Colts to keep those streaks 'alive,' they will have to outscore the Tannehill and Henry-led Tennessee offense, playing with supreme confidence. My play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS  (90%) the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS (again, 90%) the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland would go 2-6 through the season's first eight games, as QB Mayfield, who energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), regressed in Year 2. He completed only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3 in the team's first eight games. However, the Browns were able to snap a four game losing strek in Week 10 (19-16 ay home over the Bills0 and have followed with two more home wins, 21-7 over the Steelers and 41-24 over the Dolphins. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but after a 1-4 start, surged  into playoff contention by winning FOUR of their next five. Better-than-expected QB play from Mason Rudolph and improved defensive play led the way.  However, the Steelers lost 21-7 at Cleveland in Week 11 (you may just have heard about "the brawl") and followed with a less-than-impressive 16-10 victory at the winless Bengals in Week 12. As the team's get set for  a quick "rematch," the Browns are 5-6 and the Steelers 6-5. both teams are both fighting for a wild-card spot and the winner of Sunday's game will have the upper hand in a tight race that features five teams within ONE game of the No. 6 slot in the AFC.

In Cleveland's three-game winning streak, Mayfield has seven TDs and just one INT and is coming off his best game of the season last Sunday, completing 70.6% for 327 yards with three TDs and just one INT for a 118.1 QB rating. He has excellent skill players in RB Chubb (1,117 yards / 5.0 YPA / 7 TDs / 30 catches) plus WRs Landry (59 catches / 14.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and OBJ (54 catches / 14.4 / 2 TDs). However, the Browns' D is no better than average, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 338.5 YPG (14th).

Mason Rudolph had not exactly been 'filling Big Ben's shoes" but he was playing well enough for Pittsburgh to win. However, he played poorly in that Thursday night loss in Cleveland (four INTs and a QB rating of 36.3) and was just 8-of-16 for 85 yards and a interception before being replaced against the Bengals. Rookie QB Devlin "Duck" Hodges followed Rudolph and was 5 of 11 for 118 yards with a TD and zero INTs. Rudolph will be on the sidelines for Sunday's game, as here's what Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said. "We met as a staff, we decided that we're going to start Duck this week," he told reporters. "Really, the decision is clear for us. ... I thought he provided us a spark in-game. I'm hopeful that he's capable of continuing to provide that spark as we step into this stadium." Hodges was effective but hardly overwhelming in a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers back on Oct 13 while filling in for an injured Rudolph. Still, he's won over teammates with his confidence and won over his coaches by avoiding the kind of killer mistakes that have dogged Rudolph recently.

Yes, the Browns have won THREE in a row (I had  them in their Week 11 win over the Steelers) but I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs. Cleveland's been a 'dog' franchise for quite some time now and now that there's a 'sliver of hope,' I expect the Browns to return to "being the Browns." It's a wide-open AFC wild-card race but through all its ups-and-downs in 2019, Pittsburgh currently holds the last spot. This is a HUGE rivalry and expect an electrified atmosphere Sunday at Heinz Field, on the heels of "the brawl." The Browns have been the 'betting choice," as Pittsburgh opened a three-point favorite but now it's Cleveland in the role of a road favorite in Pittsburgh, where the Browns haven't won since 2003 (you read that right!). As bonus, it's Mike Tomlin on the sidelines over a seemingly clueless Freddie Kitchens. It's 'Duck Season', not 'Wabbit Season' today in Pittsburgh.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 start and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FOUR of its last five (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win at SMU to avoid falling to 6-6 (after that promising 5-1 start). Sonny Dykes has done in less than two seasons, what his SEVEN predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982.The Mustangs opened 8-0, rising as high as No. 14 in the AP poll (15th in the CFP rankings) but SMU welcomes Tulane to Dallas having lost TWO of their last three. It's tough to be too hard on SMU though, as the losses have come by SIX points at 10-1 Memphis and by seven at 8-2 Navy.

Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.

9-2 SMU's chance at a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game was lost in falling at Memphis and Navy but the team still has a shot at its first 10-win campaign since 1984. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams) will try to hit double figures in the win column when they close the regular season by hosting Tulane on Saturday. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams), could not overcome the team's D allowing 140 points (46.7 PPG) over its last three games (lone win came 59-51 over East Carolina).Then again, the Mustangs took a 21-10 lead into the half against Navy but were outscored 25-7 after the break and failed to put up points over the final 12 minutes. QB Shane Buechele (3,446 yards with 30 TDs and just eight INTs owns a big-time WR in Proche (95 catches with 13 TDs) plus WR Roberson an TE Granson have combine for 77 catches with 14 TDs. RB Jones has rushed for 1,124 yards on 5.3 YPA with 19 TDs (also two TD catches).

Kudos to Sonny Dykes and the job he has done at SMU and a 10-win season (how about an 11-win one with a victory here and in a bowl game) would be quite something for a program that was 1-11 and 2-10 in back-to-back seasons not too long ago (2014 & 2015). Tulane has not gotten the job done on the road (see above) and why should that change here, after its season has basically fallen apart? The Mustangs own a four-game winning streak in the series, winning with teams nowhere-near as good as this 2019 edition. SMU is 5-0 SU at home, averaging 48.6 PPG with an average margin of victory checking in at 18.0 PPG. Does laying 3-4 points seem like "too much" to you? It doesn't to me.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET.

Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday  to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one

Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' 

So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.

FAU and Marshall entered the 2019 season as the two favorites to win C-USA's East. FAU has won FOUR in a row to take over first-place with a 6-1 record, while Marshall and Western Kentucky are one game back at 6-2. Marshall is coming off a 24-13 loss to Charlotte, a victory that allowed the 49ers to become bowl-eligible for the first time since joining the FBS is 2015. The good news for Marshall is, the Thundering Herd own wins over FAU and Western Ky, so if they can win here and the Owls lose at home to Southern Miss (FAU is a nine-point favorite), Marshall would represent the East in next Saturday's championship game. Marshall welcomes 6-5 FIU to Huntington, the week after that school's first-ever win over a Power-5 school. The Panthers upset Miami-Fla 30-24 last Saturday as a 21-point home dog.

FIU is scoring 26.5 PPG (83rd) and allowing 26.4 (58th). QB James Morgan tossed two TD passes and the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory against Miami. However, while Morgan has not made many mistakes (two INTs in 282 attempts), he's completing a modest 58.2% for just 2,012 yards with 12 TDs. FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (750 yards / 5.0 YPA / 8 TDs) and Maxwell (589 yards / 5.4 YPA and 7 TDs) plus a receiving corps without a notable player. Marshall QB Green is no better than Morgan, completing 58.4% for 2,115 yards with 13 TDs and nine INTs. Like Morgan, his receiving corps lacks a "play-maker" but Marshall will own the best offensive player on the field in RB Knox (1,138 yards / 5.4 YPA / 10 TDs).

Marshall can't count of FAU losing but it can win here and then wait to see what happens tonight in Boca Raton. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! He's built a winning program and while Marshall is 1-5 ATS at home, it is 5-1 SU, averaging 31.8 PPG. FIU's win over Miami was a HUGE deal (most agree it was the program's most significant victory) and win or lose here, the Panthers' bowl destination will not be affected. Coming off the Miami win, how does one NOT go against a team that is 0-4 on the road in 2019, getting outscored 43.0-to-17.2 PPG!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ will earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl game. No. 18 Memphis is currently the highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings and it will host No. 19 Cincinnati on Friday. The winner of this game will host the AAC championship game on Dec 7. If Memphis wins on Friday, it will be rematch with Cincinnati. However, if the Bearcats win, they will host the title game but if Navy beats Houston (Midshipmen are currently favored by 8.5 points ), Navy, NOT Memphis, would be Cincy's opponent. Got all that?

Cincinnati has only one loss this season, against the nation's No. 2 team, Ohio State (No. 1 in CFP rankings) in its second game of the season. The Bearcats enter this contest on a NINE-game winning streak but THREE of their last four wins have come by three, three and two points. Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder has played the last two games with a shoulder injury, as the Bearcats have failed to pass for more than 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1997 (had 78 yards against USF and 62 against Temple). However, Cincy's passing game hasn't been much all season, averaging just 179.5 YPG (110th). RB Warren (939 yards / 4.8 YPA / 11 TDs) is joined by two other RBs with 400-plus yards on the season, as Cincy's running game ranks 34th (197.3 PPG). Cincy's defense is allowing just 19.9 PPG (23rd) and that includes two games in which it allowed 42 (Ohio St) and 43 points (East Carolina?).

Memphis owns the best offense Cincy has faced since Ohio St. The Tigers are averaging 42.2 PPG (8th) behind the passing of QB Brady White (67.1% for 3,074 yards with 30 TDs and seven INTs) and the running of Kenneth Gainwell (1,294 yards on 6.8 YPA with 12 TDs). Memphis enters with a streak of FIVE consecutive contests of 40 or more points and three straight games with more than 510 yards of total offense. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl?

Anything less than a New Year's Six one, at this point, would be a disappointment. To accomplish that, Memphis will have to beat Cincy here and again, NEXT Saturday. Here's the good news. Memphis is 5-0 SU at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-24.4 PPG. What's more,under Norvell, Memphis is 13-1 SU and ATS (that's 93%), in the month of November (home or away), averaging 49.1 PPG. I'm NOT stepping in front of this 'train!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The New Orleans Saints are 9-2 and own a four-game lead in the NFC South. However, the Saints still have much to paly for, as they are battling the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks for the NFC's No. 1 seed (note: 8-3 Green Bay and Minnesota lurk). New Orleans have survived an injury to its future Hallof Fame QB, as Teddy Bridgewater stepped in and the team never 'blinked.' Now, Brees is back as the Saints enter their playoff 'push.' As for the Falcons, doesn't it seem like their Super Bowl appearance (2016 season) was more like 10 years ago? Atlanta 'limps' into this Thanksgiving night game 3-8, including 1-4 at home. Thursday night's game is a rematch of a Week 10 contest in New Orleans. The Saints were riding a six-game winning streak when they were blindsided by the visiting Falcons, 26-9. It marked the first time New Orleans failed to score a TD at home with Brees operating the offense since he came to the Saints in 2006.

The Saints are in command in the NFC South but the team's defense is trending in the wrong direction. New Orleans had  held FIVE straight opponents to fewer than 260 total yards but the Saints have allowed an average of 334.0 YPG over their last three games, with the 351 total yards they surrendered to the Panthers last week marking their highest total since Week 3. Drew Brees and the offense took a one-game 'hiatus' in the above-mentioned loss to the Falcons but put up 418 total yards last week as Brees threw three TD passes for the second straight game (Saints have scored 34 points in back-to-back games after scoring NINE in that loss to the Falcons). Brees is completing 75.7% of his passes and while Ingram is in Baltimore these days, RBs Kamara (526 rushing yards on 4.6 YPA plus 60 catches) and Murray (462 yards on 4.5 YPA) give him enough 'cover.' On the season, New Orleans' D is allowing 20.9 PPG (13th) on 321.3 YPG (10th).

Matt Ryan passed for 300-plus yards in each of Atlanta's first six game but the Falcons won just ONE of the six. He's averaged a more modest 230.8 YPG passing the last four contests, with Atlanta going 2-2. Is passing less 'the ticket.' Not really, as the Falcons have the second-worst running game in the NFL, averaging 72.9 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPA). Atlanta's 26-9 shocker of the Saints in New Orleans was followed by a 29-3 win at Carolina but anything idea that Atlanta had 'righted the ship,' came crashing down in last Sunday's 35-22 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons surrendered 446 total yards and had a hard time getting the run game going with 57 rushing yards (note: TB entered that game at 2-8 ATS, the worst pointspread record of an NFL team).

Atlanta's upset win at New Orleans in Week 10 was one of NFL 2019's most improbable wins (sacked Brees SIX times) but forewarned is forearmed. The Saints are 4-0 SU & ATS on the road this season and come into this contest an NFL-best 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in road games since 2016. Atlanta was once an excellent home team but no more. The Falcons beat Philly 24-20 at home in Week 2 but they have since lost FOUR in a row at home, allowing 30.8 PPG. "Matty Ice" (what a fraudulent nick-name) gets out-dueled by Brees in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

Sure there are state bragging rights involved in this year's "Egg Bowl" (always are) but Mississippi State has added motivation entering  its regular-season finale against its bitter rival on Thanksgiving night. The Bulldogs have made a bowl appearance in a school-record NINE consecutive seasons and can extend that streak to an an 10 when they host Ole Miss on Thursday night. As for Ole Miss, the Rebels can do no better than match last year's disappointing 5-7 season by earning a fifth win in 2019 with a victory over their bitter rival.

Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag was removed on November 26, 2017 and he became the 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) put some pressure on Luke. Luke didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. However, Ole Miss checks in at 4-7, including 2-5 in the SEC. The Rebels' hopes tonight will rest on rest freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee, who already has rushed for 989 yards and 11 TDs. In his last game (11/16 vs No. 1 LSU), he ran for a season-high 212 yards and four rushing TDs. RB Jerrion Ealy also set a season high with 141 yards rushing on only 13 carries vs the Tigers. Ealy is part of a trio of RBs who have for for between 481 and 640 yards on the season, accounting for 15 TDs. Ole Miss ranks 7th in the nation in rushing, averaging 261.5 YPG on 5.6 YPC. MacIntyre has not done much to improve the Rebels' defense, as Ole Miss enters this final game of the season allowing 27.0 PPG (62nd).

Miss St is just one win shy of bowl-eligibility but the Bulldogs 'limp' into this contest having dropped FIVE of six before routing overmatched FCS foe Abilene Christian 45-7 last weekend. Speculation regarding the status of Miss St head coach Joe Moorhead  is swirling, if the bowl streak ends Thursday. "We have to do two things: make sure we play well and keep the Egg here in Starkville," Moorhead said. "If we do that, then we will extend the season and get to play in a bowl game." RB Kylin Hill is the SEC's leader rusher (1,215  yards on 5.8 YPA and 11 TDs) and needs 176 yards to match the school's single-season record. The QB situation has been in flux all season, as Tommy Stevens has thrown for fewer yards (934) than backup Garrett Shrader (1,062). MSU must avoid another slow start, as teh Bulldogs have scored a combined 13 points in the first quarter of their six losses. The Bulldogs' D is slightly worse than the Rebels, allowing 28.8 PPG (75th).

Joe Moorhead (only previous head coaching job was at Fordham) was hired as the head coach at Mississippi State before the 2018 season, replacing Dan Mullen who had been with Mississippi State for nine seasons before being hired by the University of Florida. (Mullen led MSU to a bowl in his final EIGHT seasons at Starkville). Moorhead looks a poor fit at MSU, as this season's 2-5 SU & ATS record in SEC games attest. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has played much better in the SEC, going 6-1 ATS (lone non-cover was a seven-point loss to A&M as a six-point underdog). There has NOT been a home field edge in recent Egg Bowls, as the visiting team has won and covered each of the last four years. Look for Ole Miss to 'spoil' Miss St's bowl aspirations in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

All the NFL's top teams won on Sunday, as the 49ers and Pats moved to 10-1, while the Seahawks and Saints (just barely) moved to 9-2. Monday night, the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens will bring their six-game winning streak (NFL's longest current winning streak) to LA in an effort to "Keep up with the Joneses!" Baltimore has DOMINATED in its last four victories, winning 30-16, 37-20, 49-13 and 41-7, as QB Lamar Jackson has catapulted himself into the top-tier of MVP candidates (more later). The Rams welcome the Ravens to the LA Coliseum with a 6-4 record. They are badly in need of a win, as they are 'stuck' in the same division as the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks. The Rams won the NFC West in both 2017 and 2018 (on their way to a Super Bowl berth) but they haven't looked like the same team here in 2019.

Jackson has "the whole league talking about" his recent efforts. He ripped apart the NFL's stingiest defense with his arm and legs, accounting for three TDs and directing a dominant running game in a 37-20 victory on SNF over the Pats in Week 9. He's coming off a four-TD performance in Baltimore's 41-7 rout of Houston last Sunday, becoming the first NFL quarterback to produce at least 2,000 yards passing (2,258 with a 19-5 ratio) and 700 yards rushing (781 on 6.7 YPA with six TDs) through the first 10 games of a season. RB Mark Ingram (667 yards on 4.9 YPA and a team-high eight rushing TDs) joins Jackson to give Baltimore the NFL's best rushing attack (203.1 YPG on 5.7 YPA). The Baltimore D is not the vintage defense of the 'Ray Lewis era" but allowing 19.6 PPG works just fine when the offense is averaging an NFL-high 34.1 PPG!

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC). However, the Rams enter Monday night  having failed to score at least 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time under head coach Sean McVay. After following his breakout year of 2017 (28-7 ratio with a 100.5 QB rating), Jared Goff threw 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (101.0 rating) in leading the Rams into the Super Bowl in 2018. However, through 10 games this season, he's got an 11-10 ratio and a QB rating of 82.1. His production is off due to nagging injuries to WRs Woods (86 catches in 2018) and Cooks (89 catches), who have just 45 (in nine games) and 27 (in eight games), this season. It also hasn't helped that RB Gurley (525 yards with 7 TDs and 18 catches for one TD) is FAR from the player he  was in 2018 (1,251 yards on 4.9 YPA and 17 TDs / 59 catches for 4 TDs). The good news is, both Robert Woods (personal) and Brandin Cooks (concussion) are expected back for this contest. LA's defense has improved this season (allowed 24.0 PPG in 2018 but ranks 11th in allowing 19.6 PPG in 2019) and DT Aaron Donald was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after registering two sacks, four QB hits and a pass deflection in the Rams' 17-7 victory over Chicago last Sunday night.

Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here by going against the red-hot Ravens but I will take the home dog Rams. This isn't your father's NFC West (remember 2010 when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record?). The Rams' only path into the 2019 postseason is via the wild card. I'm not sure the Rams. chances are very good there either but those chances will all but disapear with a loss here. As Winston Churchill once opined, "If not now, when? If not us, who?" That's LA's mentality coming into this contest and Monday night home dogs have always held a special place with long-time handicappers/bettors.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 8-2 Green Bay Packers visit the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, with the Packers atop the NFC North and the 49ers leading the NFC West. However, both teams face stiff challenges from division rivals. The Packers look over their shoulder and see the 8-3 Vikings lurking, while the 49ers have the 8-2 Seahawks right on their coattails. This primetime game has major homefield advantage and wild-card positioning at stake. The Packers are coming off a Week 11 bye but are sure to remember their last trip to the West Coast, a 26-11 Week 9 loss at the LA Chargers, as a four-point road favorite. As for the 49ers, they welcome the Packers to Lev's Stadium off three straight games against NFC West rivals, beating Arizona twice, 28-25 and 36-26, sandwiched around a 27-24 loss in OT to the Seahawks (MNF classic).

Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,718 yards (he owns two, 400-yard passing games) with a superb ratio of 17 TD passes against only two INTs. Rodgers no longer enjoys an elite receiving corps but RB Aaron Jones has had a 'breakout year." He is tied for the NFL lead with 14 TDs (11 rushing, three receiving) and has 943 scrimmage yards (589 rushing, 354 receiving). WR Davant Adams (39 catches in six games) is still dealing with a toe injury but he's had a week off and has played in Green Bay's last two games, catching SEVEN balls in each contest. The Green Bay defense ranks 28th in yards allowed (384.7 per) but 14th in points allowed, at a more modest 20.5 PPG. The key being, the  team's plus-9 turnover margin (16 takeaways against just seven giveaways).

San Francisco's lone blemish in 2019 has been that MNF loss to Seattle, a game the 49ers could have easily won. San Francisco's offense has been led by the steady, if unspectacular play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (68.8% for 2,478 yards with 18 TDs and 10 INTs), plus the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack (149.0 YPG). The good news is that star TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) returned to practice Thursday and the 49ers are hopeful he will available after missing the past two games with knee and ankle injuries. The San Francisco offense is not viewed as prolific but it does rank second in scoring at 29.5 PPG. San Francisco's D ranks second to only New England's in points allowed (15.5 PPG) and yards allowed (253.0 YPG). The 49ers lead the NFL with 39 sacks, as DEs Arik Armstead (eight) and Nick Bosa (seven) lead the charge.

Let me "take apart" what I just noted about the 49ers. I've always maintained that Garoppolo's gaudy W-L record as a starting QB (17-3, including 2-0 with the Pats) conceals the fact that he's not much better than an average QB. Note that EIGHT of his 18 TD passes have come in two games against the Cardinals (over a three-game span), who rank 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2019. Now, let's take a closer look at that SF running game over that recent three-game span. The Niners relied heavily on their running game in averaging 181.1 YPG through the first seven contests but with nagging injuries to both Breida and Mostert, that aspect of the offense has gone missing the past three weeks. San Francisco has been held to 74.0 YPG (third-worst in the NFL during that span), averaging 2.9 YPA. Moving on to San Francisco's D, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. San Francisco has allowed 25, 27 and 26 points its last three contests, beginning with the game in which Alexander got hurt in.

This game against the Packers begins a grueling three-game stretch for the Niners. San Francisco follows this with two more against teams currently in first place with trips to Baltimore (8-2) and New Orleans (8-2). If the Ravens and Saints don't lose before facing San Francisco, the 49ers will be the first team in the Super Bowl era to play three consecutive games this late in the season against teams with a winning percentage of at least .800, according to ESPN. The 49ers' season could turn 'sour,' VERY quickly. 'Forgiving' the Packers their Week 9 loss at the Chargers (it was a non-conference road game, which does not factor into tie-breakers in the NFC standings), the Packers have won 10-3 at Chicago, 34-24 at Dallas (led 28-0) and 31-24 at KC. Any points here are a bonus, as I expect the Packers to win, outright!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The Patriots were held to 17 points at Philadelphia last Sunday but despite Tom Brady's admitted "frustration" with his team's offense, the Patriots won 17-10 and at 9-1, own the best record in the AFC. The win helped New England's opponent this Sunday, as the Eagles fell to 5-5, meaning that the Cowboys' 35-27 win at Detroit allowed 6-4 Dallqa to assume sole possession of first place in the NFC East.As Brady put it, "I came out of the womb as a Niner fan, so I've really not liked the Cowboys ever since." It's been more than 20 years since "the triplets" of Aikman, Irvin and Smith helped propel the Cowboys to their most recent Super Bowl win and since he entered the league in 2000, Brady has taken out his childhood frustrations on them, winning each of his four meetings against them as the Patriots' starting QB.

Dallas ranks first in the league averaging 446.0 YPG and is averaging 28.6 PPG (4th). QB Dak Prescott has been terrific, completing 67.7% for 3,221 yards (Dallas is No. 1 in passing yards) with 21 TDs and nine INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. WR Amari Cooper (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) has been very good plus fellow WRs Gallup (42 / 16.1 YPC) and Cobb (35 catches / 14.1 YPC), not to mention ageless TE Whitten (41 catches), provide Prescott with plenty of options. RB Elliott has 833 yards (4.3 YPA and 7 TDs). Defensively, Dallas ranks 7th in both points allowed (19.7 per) and total D (322.1 YPG).

Brady is having a sub-par season by his standards (63.7% with 14 TDs and 5 INTs for a 90.1 QB rating) and a mediocre receiving corps plus a poor running game (Pats average just 91.0 YPG to rank 24th), sure don't make his job easier. Leading rusher Michel has a modest 515 yards and is averaging only 3.3 YPA. However, somehow, the Pats rank third in the NFL by averaging 28.7 PPG. Leading the way all season has been New England's defense, which ranks 1st in points allowed (10.8 PPG) and 1st in total D (249.9 YPG). The Patriots have given up only NINE total TDs on defense in 2019, FOUR of which came in their 37-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 9. New England has yet to allow a red-zone TD at home this season and own an NFL-best 28 takeaways (its 37 sacks rank third).

Here's the key. Just how good are the Cowboys? The team's six wins have come over the Giants (two), Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles and Lions. NONE of those teams currently own a winning record. The Eagles are 5-5 but the Lions are 3-6-1, the Giants and Dolphins are both 2-8 plus the Redskins are 1-9. Are you kidding me? The four losses have come against the 8-2 Packers and Saints, the 7-3 Vikings and even the 3-7 Jets. New England has won 17 in a row at home and a victory Sunday would give them 17 straight 10-win seasons, breaking an NFL record shared with San Francisco. More notably, the Pats enter this game on a 16-4 ATS run at Gillette Stadium (that's 80%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Year is on Jax/Ten Over at 4:05 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. The Titans welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to Nashville on Sunday, looking for a FOURTH win in five games (details to come). The Jags opened the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but then would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles and played reasonably well (61.2% for 2,285 yards with 13 Tds and four INTs) but Foles returned to field last Sunday. The Jags were routed 33-13 by the Colts, although Foles completed 33 of 47 for 296 yards with two TDs and one INT.

The 4-6 Jags defeated the Titans 20-7 at home back in Week 3. Minshew played well with two TDs and zero INTs (a modest 204 passing yards) but it was Jacksonville's defense which played the starring role, sacking Mariota NINE times. Foles is back but the Jags can't ignore their running game like vs the Colts (29 yards on nine carries!), as when used, Fournette is a quality multi-purpose player. He's rushed for 854 yards (4.7 YPA) and has 47 catches! WR Chark is having an excellent season with 51 receptions, averaging 15.6 YPC plus hauling in eight TDs. The once-proud Jacksonville defense has allowed 59 points in back-to-back losses to Houston and Indy, allowing 216 yards rushing in a 26-3 loss to the Texans and 264 in last week's 33-13 loss to the Colts.

The Titans have an excellent RB in Henry and unlike Fournette (who has just one TD!), Henry has EIGHT rushing TDs (832 yards on 4.4 YPA) plus two TD receptions, despite just 13 catches. Henry is a major contributor (more in a bit) but the insertion of Tannehill at QB is what has sparked the Titans' turnaround. Tannehill was named the starting QB for Week 7.Four games later (Tennessee is 3-1 and averaging 26.3 PPG), Tannehill has led the Titans to the top spot in the league in red zone offense, scoring TDs on all 10 red zone trips. For the season, the Titans have scored TDs on 72% of their red zone trips.In the first six weeks, the offense was settling for FGs when it reached the red zone. In Marcus Mariota's six starts, when Tennessee averaged just 16.3 PPG, the Titans averaged 1.3 TDs in 2.5 red zone visits per game. Mariota's red zone QBR was 17.0, according to ESPN Stats & Information. However, in the past four games under Tannehill, Tennessee has averaged 1.8 TDs in the same amount of visits. Tannehill's red zone QBR is 97.1. Additionally, Tannehill's completion percentage in the red zone is 70.6%, compared to Mariota's 46.2%.

All these above stats have me 'all over' the OVER is this game.I love what Tannehill's been able to do plus getting back to Henry, he ran for a season-best 188 yards in a 35-32 victory over Kansas City on Nov 10, before the Titans had a bye. The team returns to the field refreshed and let me remind all that Henry ran for a career-best 238-yards with four TDs against the Jaguars last December, including a memorable 99-yard TD. Throw in the fact that Foles has a full week of practice behind (expect a good game from him) and this posted total WAAAAY to low!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"

The Broncos looked to be on the verge of a second straight victory last week but then squandering a 20-point lead in a 27-23 loss at Minnesota. WR Courtland Sutton had five catches for 113 yards and added a 38-yard completion.Sutton is working with backup quarterback Brandon Allen (now Denver's starter), who is completing just 49.2 percent of his passes with three TDs and one interception in two starts.The now injured Flacco was a a bust and while RBs Lindsay (651 yards / 4.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Freeman (405 yards / 4.0 YPA) are both quality backs, Denver ranks just 16th with 113.1 YPG on the ground. Through 10 games, Denver has averaged only 17.2 PPG (27th) on 321.6 YPG (25th). First-year head coach Vic Fangio  was known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos' D is allowing 19.7 PPG (8th) on 310.8 YPG (4th).

Josh Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (23) and 12 rushing TDs (15) in his first two seasons (still has six games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.3% for 2,175 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 331 yards and seven TDs. He was named the AFC's offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 256 yards and three TDs, as well as adding 56 yards and a rushing TD in last week's 37-20 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo's running game is averaging 128.7 YPG (8th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks 3rd in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total D (304.1 YPG).

The criticism of Buffalo is that its seven wins have come against teams entering Week 12 with a combined record of 15-55. The next five opponents are 31-19, and include three division leaders; Dallas (6-4), Baltimore (8-2) and New England (9-1). Fair enough but don't the 3-7 Broncos fall right into Buffalo's 'wheelhouse' of losing teams? Inept quarterbacking gets most of the attention but there are reports of internal strife caused by gruff first-year head coach Vic Fangio. Team Chemistry can’t be too good, after the Broncos ended a consecutive game streak of 99 contests in which a team ahead by at least 20 points at the half, didn't win! VERY fair price on the Bills in this one. Denver is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019 (lone win at the Chargers, who have NO home field edge), extending the team's road woes to 5-16 SU the last two-plus seasons.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET.

California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West.

Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). 

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.

USC earned back-to-back road wins at Arizona State and Cal and moved into the College Football Playoff rankings for the the first time this season at No. 23. The Trojans are 7-4 overall and at 6-2 in the Pac-12 South, they are just a half-game back of Utah, which has two games left. USC only has this game with UCLA remaining, so a win would leave USC at 7-2 in conference play. That means Utah would need to win its last two games (Utes will be huge a favorite in both), because USC's 30-23 over Utah gives the Trojans the tie-breaker.All that said, Clay Helton's future as USC head coach is anything but settled (rumors of a possible Urban Meyer or James Franklin hiring are swirling).

UCLA visits the LA Coliseum 4-6 (4-3 Pac-12) and would need to win here and at home to Cal next weekend just to become bowl-eligible. UCLA was on a 4-2 SU (4-1-1 ATS) run after an 0-3 SU & ATS start to 2019 but last Saturday in Salt Lake City, got steamrolled 49-3 loss by Utah. After a 3-9 (3-6 Pac-12) record in his first season at Westwood, Chip Kelly would be hailed as a hero with closing wins over crosstown rival USC and a home win over Cal.

The Bruins have won FOUR of the last seven meetings with the Trojans, including a 34-27 victory last season at the Rose Bowl when Joshua Kelley ran for a series-record 289 yards. Kelley currently ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing behind Utah's Zach Moss, who holds an average-per-game lead of 106.1 to 104.3. Kelley has 939 rushing yards (4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and is trying to become the first Bruin since Paul Perkins in 2014 to lead the Pac-12 in rushing. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has had an erratic season but it's hard NOT to remember him passing for five TDs and running for two in UCLA's amazing 67-63 comeback win at Wash St back on Sep 21. UCLA's defense is a mess, allowing 33.7 PPG (111th) on 442.0 YPG (105th).

Freshman Kedon Slovis began the season as USC's third-string QB but due to injuries, he's played most of the season and has put up impressive numbers. He turned in his third 400-yard passing game of the season in last week's 41-17 win at Cal, completing 29-of-35 passes for 406 yards, four TDs and no interceptions against a Bears defense that had allowed just nine passing scores all season. He's completing 70.8% with 24 TDs and just nine INTs. on the season. He has three "big-time" WRs, who have all caught 60-plus passes for a combined 20 TD receptions. The best of the group is Michael Pittman Jr, who has 82 catches and nine TDs. However, for a school once called "Running Back U," USC is averaging 126.1 YPG rushing (111th), on 4.1 YPA. The USC defense is at best average, allowing 27.1 PPG (64th) on 403.9 YPG (70th).

Embattled head coach Clay Helton has plenty of motivation here but rumors seem to point to the fact that he's "OUT" at the the end of the season, no matter what. I expect expect UCLA to "play hard" against this hateful crosstown rival and noting that Clay Helton is only 5-10 ATS his last 15 as a home favorite, has me taking about two TDs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. The 2019 Bears survived four "close calls' to open 9-0 and appeared well on their way to win No. 10 and sole possession of first place in the Big 12 but somehow blew a 25-point lead in a stunning 34-31 loss to Oklahoma last Saturday. Baylor must regroup and resume its pursuit for a Big 12 title and a spot in the conference title game. The Bears need one win in their final two games to play for the league championship and they can clinch that spot by beating visiting Texas on Saturday afternoon.

Texas opened 10th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its second game 45-38 to then-No. 6 LSU. The Longhorns won three straight after that but then lost their annual game with then-No. 6 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, 34-27. A two-point win over Kansas was followed by a 37-27 loss at TCU. However, Texas eked out a 27-24 home win on Nov 9 against then-No. 16 Kansas St, getting Texas back in the polls (19th in the CFP rankings). However, Texas lost another "close one" last Saturday at Iowa St, losing 23-21 on a last-second FG. The Longhorns are now 6-4 (4-3 in the Big 12) and only hold a faint chance of reaching the league title game.

QB Sam Ehlinger rallied the Longhorns with a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter last week and broke the school single-season record held by Colt McCoy with his sixth game with at least three TD passes. Ehlinger has 27 TDs and just eight INTs on the season, with WR Devin Duvernay hauling in eight TDs (87 catches). The problem for Texas against Iowa St was that the team ran for just 54 yards (Texas is averaging a modest 161.9 YPG which ranks 68th). Defensively, Texas has struggled all season, allowing 29.9 PPG (84th) on 449.4 YPG (110th).

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer ran for two TDs and threw for two, as the Bears opened up a 31-10 halftime lead over Oklahoma, but Baylor did not score in the second half, and ran only 15 plays on its last four possessions. Brewer has completed 66.8% for 2,532 yards with 18 TDs and just five INTs on the season. RBs Lovett and Hasty each have just over 500 yards, as Baylor averages 180.7 YPG on the ground (45th). WR Mims is Baylor's most dangerous pass-catcher with 50 catches on 15.3 YPC for 10TDs. Baylor is averaging 34.9 PPG (26th) and allowing 20.5 PPG (24th)

Baylor is the better team but I'm not buying Matt Rhule saying, "Our team learned a lot from that game," after the game. "They learned, No. 1, what we can be - for the first half we looked like not just a top-10, but a top-five team in the country. Then, secondly, the second half showed us what we still have to do." Texas has won FOUR straight against Baylor and eight of 11 at Baylor since the schools joined the Big 12. Throw in that Tom Herman is now 15-4 ATS as an underdog with Houston and Texas and I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.

UCF totaled just one loss in 2017 and 2018 (none in AAC play) but the 2019 season has not unfolded the way the Knights had hoped. First came last-second l35-34 loss at Pitt on Sep 21, which ended UCF's 27-game regular season winning streak, followed by a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati on Oct 4, which ended the school's 19-game AAC winning streak. UCF fell for a THIRD time in 2019 when it went scoreless in the fourth quarter and gave up the lead in a 34-31 setback at Tulsa last week (note" Tulsa entered the game 2-7 on the season). The Knights will try to bounce back from that loss when they visit Tulane on Saturday. The Green Wave let a promising start to the 2019 season (Tulane opened 5-1) and a chance at a spot in the AAC championship slip away with losses in THREE of their last four games, after losing 29-21 at Temple last Saturday.

Freshman QB Gabriel is completing 60.6% for 2,806 yards for UCF, throwing 24 TDs against just seven INTs. WRs Davis (59 catches / 18.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and Nixon (41 catches / 17.2 YPC / 7 TDs) have each had excellent seasons. Four RBs have gained between 401 and 609 rushing yards for the Knights, as UCF averages 220.2 YPG (19th) on 5.1 YPA. UCF's defense has allowed a modest 23.6 PPG (41st) on 348.6 YPG (34th) but I'll look a little closer, in a bit.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! As noted, after a 5-1 start, a second straight winning season looked like a sure thing. However, Tulane is 6-4 entering this contest and after hosting UCF (Tulane is a home dog), the Green Wave will have to visit SMU (Mustangs are currently 9-1 and sit 21st in the AP poll and 25th in the CFP rankings). QB Justin McMillan is a true dual-threat, passing for 1,806 yards (13 TDs) and rushing for 552 yards (12 TDs). However,he was awful in last Saturday's loss at Temple, completing just 11-of-27 passes for 103 yards. McMillan is Tulane's leading rusher but five RBs have gained between 221 and 459 yards, allowing Tulane to rush for 255.4 YPG (11th) on 5.6 YPA. Tulane is averaging 34.9 PPG (27th) and allowing 25.8 PPG (55th)

Getting back to UCF, the Knights are averaging 44.8 PPG (7th) but the defense has struggled badly in each of its losses. UCF has allowed an average of 32.0 PPG in those losses. Tulane already has six wins (bowl eligible) but still needs one more 'W" to insure a winning regular season. Tulane sure won't want to have to win at SMU on Nov 30, so that makes this game a little more important. Yes, UCF is having a 'down year' at 7-3 but a win over the Knights would mean a great deal to the Green Wave program. What's more, Tulane is a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS at home in 2019 (outscoring opponents on average, 45.0-to-16.8 PPG), and a victory on Saturday would give Tulane an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1998! I want the points with his very 'live' home 'dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET.

Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak.

Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th).

There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th).

The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season.

Good luck...Larry