My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Texas A&M at 3:30 ET.

The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday, with 6-2 Auburn getting ranked No. 13 and 6-2 Texas A&M settling in right behind at No. 14. As fate would have it, the Tigers will be in College Station this Saturday to take on the Aggies, a contest which is essentially an elimination game in the SEC West. Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC) trails Alabama (7-1, 4-1) for the division lead, with Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2), Ole Miss (6-2, 3-2) and Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2) all fighting to stay in the race as well. However, only Auburn and Alabama control their destinies to earn a spot in the SEC title game on Dec 4. If Auburn and Alabama win the rest of their league games heading into their meeting on the final day of the regular season on Nov 27, the winner of the Iron Bowl would head to Atlanta to play top-ranked and East Division champ Georgia. That said, this is definitely a "marquee matchup," as the Tigers and Aggies have both turned their seasons around after coming close to taking major steps backward this season.
Auburn QB Bo Nix is an enigma in my mind, although his numbers are pretty good in 2021. He's completing 62.2% for 1,764 yards with a modest nine TDs but has also thrown just two INTs (a big deal). He's done all that with an underwhelming receiver corps, as Auburn does not have a single player with as many as 30 catches, after EIGHT games! However, the Tigers do have a running game, averaging 197.6 YPG (35th) on 5.5 YPC. The tandem of Bigsly (666 yards / 5.3 YPC / 7 TDs) and Hunter (530 yards / 7.7 YPC / 3 TDs) have been steady producers all season. Auburn typically plays good defense and this year's team is allowing 19.8 PPG (25th).

Texas A&M was ranked 7th in the nation when it lost 20-10 to Arkansas on Sep 25 and 15th when it lost its next game, 26-22 at Miss St. The Aggies fell out of the rankings but turned their season around with a 41-38 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9. A 35-14 win at Missouri and a 44-14 win over South Carolina have followed and as noted above, the Aggies are now No. 14 in the 1st CFP rankings. QB Calzada (just 55.3% for 1,364 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs) is no star but like Nix, he is backed by a strong running game. Spiller (761 yards / 6.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Achane (608 yards / 7.1 YPC / 5 TDs) lead a running attack that averages 188.3 YPG. A&M has no superstars among its receiving corps but WR Smith has 31 catches for six TDs and TE Wydermyer has 25 catches, averaging 14.1 YPC with four TDs. A&M's defense is actually better than Auburn's allowing 16.1 PPG (5th).

A&M felt it was 'robbed' of that 4th CFP berth last season but knows a 'Final 4' appearance is NOT in the cards here in 2021, after two losses. However, A&M can still cap an impressive season if it keeps winning, not to mention spoil Auburn's shot at entering the Iron Bowl with a chance at the SEC West title (see above). A&M has played the tougher sked (#26 vs #53) and while Auburn is on a 10-18 run as a road underdog, A&M is 15-7 ATS at home since 2018, including 4-0 here in 2021. Auburn caught a 'tired' Ole Miss team last Saturday but that will NOT be the case here, as A&M is off a bye. A&M wins comfortably, by double digits!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Air Force at 11:30 am ET.

Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights opened 4-0 in 2021 but if one looked more closely, the teams Army beat had a combined 3-13 (.188) SU record. However, Army has lost three straight since its perfect start, most recently to Wake Forest in a 70-56 final. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons opened the 2021 season 6-1 (lone loss was 49-45 at Utah St), before losing 20-14 to a then-unbeaten SD State team. The two service academies meet Saturday at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, with kickoff scheduled 30 minutes before high noon ET.

Both teams own dominant running games, as Army rushes for 312.3 YPG (3rd) on 4.9 YPC, while Air Forces average 318.4 YPG (1st) on YPC. Neither team is effective throwing the ball and basically, passes are not a real part of either team's playbook. The big difference between the two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, as Army is allowing 27.7 PPG (80th), while Air Force is holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG (7th). Even more impressively, Air Force ranks THIRD nationally in allowing just 281.6 YPG.

Air Force was 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS from 2006-16 but Army has won THREE of the last four meetings (also 3-1 ATS) but I won't ignore the fact that Air Force is a MONEY-MAKING 23-8 ATS over its last 31 non-conference games. The winner here claims the Commander-in-Chief's trophy and my bet says that Air Force takes it. Lay the short price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights Play is on Boston College 7:30 ET.

A pair of 4-4 teams square off Friday night when the Virginia Tech Hokies and Boston College Eagles meet Friday at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Both have arrived at 4-4 taking different paths. Va Tech opened its season with a 17-10 upset of preseason No. 10 North Craolina and sat 3-1 before losing THREE in a row to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, ALL at home. Va Tech ended its three-game slide with a 26-17 road win at Ga Tech. Boston College, in Jeff Hafley's second season (6-5 in his first), opened 4-0 but has since lost ALL four of its ACC games to fall to .500. The slide began with a near-upset of Clemson but the last three wins have come by scores of 33-7 (NC St), 28-14 (Louisville) and 21-6 (Syracuse).

Virginia Tech is led by QB Braxton Burmeister, who is a true double threat. He has completed just 54.3% of his passes for 1,495 yards with nine TDs and only three INTs. Burmeister also has 272 rushing yards with two TDs. RB Blackshear and Thomas have combined for 660 yards and seven TDs, as Tech averages 160.1 YPG rushing (74th). Turner (34 catches / 17.7 YPC / 2 TDs) and Robinson (31 catches / 10.4 YPC / 4 TDs) are the best WRs. The offense averages a modest 24.0 YPG (24th) but the defense is solid, allowing 22.4 PG (45th). However, Tech was always known as one of the nation's top defense (and specials teams, as well) but that's no longer the case.

BC's QB is Grossel (57.8% for 1,216 yards with six TDs ands seven INTs), who is clearly no star (was bench in the Syracuse loss). Garwo leads the team with 689 yards rushing (5.9 YPC / 5 TDs) but the Eagles only average 155.3 YPG on the ground (78th). Flowers (35 catches / 14.6 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Barry (18 catches / 16.0 YPC / 3 TDs) are the best of the receiving corps. BC averages 25.6 PPG (84th) but its defense is holding opponenst to 20.8 PPG (33rd) on 346.9 YPG (42nd).

Justin Fuente came to Va Tech after a couple successful season at Memphis but after a going 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seaosns, the Hokies are just 18-16 the last two-plus seasons (his 'seat' is getting 'hot!'). Va Tech 'limps' in 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and BC is 7-3 ATS the last 10 in this series plus 10-3-1 its last 14 times as a home dog (goes back into the 2016 season. 'Bow Wow!' Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC Attack is on Kent St at 7:00 ET.

MACtion began Tuesday night with three games and continues tonight with two more, as the Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Kent State Golden Flashes from Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio. NIU is led by third-year head coach Thomas Hammock, who went 5-7 in his first season and then 0-6 in the COVID-shortened 2002 season. However, NIU had nine starters back on offense and 10 on defense and the Huskies enter this contest on a five-game winning streak that has them at 6-2 overall, including 4-0 in the MAC-West. Kent's Sean Lewis is just 34 (youngest head coach at the FBS level) and after going 2-10 in his first season, led Kent to a Frisco Bowl win in 2019, as the team finished 7-6. Kent played just four games in 2020 (1-3) but while the Golden Flashes are just 4-4 in 2021, they are 3-1 and atop the MAC-East. This could be a MAC title game preview.

QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,321 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 232.8 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group and has five TDs). RBs Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) and Ducker (478 yards / 5.4 YPC) are the top producers. NIU's weakness is the team's defense, which is allowing 31.5 PPG (104th) on 420.4 YPG (98th).

QB Dustin Crum has better numbers than Lombard, completing 62.3% for 1,770 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs. He's run for 368 yards and six TDs, adding to a running game that's averaging 220.1 YPG on the ground (17th). Cooper (558 yards / 4.7 YPC / 5 TDs) and Williams (378 yards / 4.9 YPC / one TD) are the top-two RBs. Cephas (50 catches / 6 TDs) is the top receiving threat, while fellow WRs Johnson and Abram have combined for 58 catches and three TDs. Like with NIU, Kent's defense struggles, allowing 33.4 PPG (113th) on 475.1 YPG (123rd).

As noted above, this could be a preview of the MAC title game but the path to that championship game is much easier for NIU than it is for Kent St. NIU is off a thrilling 39-38 win in its last game, the team's FIFTH straight victory (4-1 ATS). The Huskies are already bowl-eligible, something Kent still needs two wins to achieve. Kent looked decent in its most recent action, pulling away for a 34-27 win at Ohio as a five-point favorite but while NIU has some 'breathing room' (letdown situation?) Kent has NO such luxury with two road games up next. The Golden Flashes are 3-0 at home but just 1-4 on the road, so this becomes almost a "must-win!" Both defenses struggle but both has excellent running games. The difference? Kent's QB play with Crum over Lombard. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET.

The hiring of Mike McCarthy prior to the 2020 season was viewed as a "big deal" for Dallas. "America's Team" won THREE Super Bowl titles in a four-year span from 1992 through 1995 but has had little to show over the next 2 1/2-decades. QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending-injury in the team's fifth game in 2020 and even though the NFC East winner (Washington) was just 7-9, the Cowboys fell short with a 6-10 record. Entering this season, Dallas had made just 10 playoff appearances in the last 25 seasons, with zero appearances in the NFC championship game, no less a Super Bowl appearance or win.

However after losing on a last-second FG at Tampa to open the current season, the Cowboys have won FIVE in a row and at 5-1, have separated themselves from the rest of the NFC East (all other three teams are 2-5). Dallas plays Sunday night in Minneota against the 3-3 Vikings. Minnesota hired Mike Zimmer back in 2014 and after a 7-9 first season, he then made the playoffs THREE times in the next five seasons (11, 13 and 10-win seasons), before going 7-9 in 2021. Minnesota has opened 3-3 this season and could really use a win here.

Prescott is clearly fully recovered, as he is completing 73.1% for 1,813 yards with 16 TDs and four INTs (115.0 QB rating). He's been greatly aided by a Dallas rushing attack that averages 164.3 YPG on the ground (2nd). "Zeke" is back (521 yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs), aided by Pollard (366 yards on 6.0 YPC). Prescott has excellent WRs in Lamb (33 catches / 15.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Cooper (30 catches / 12.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Shultz keeps getting better (31 catches / 3 TDs).

Minnesota's Kirk Cousins always puts up excellent numbers and this year is nor different. He's completing 69.5% for 1,769 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs (105.4 QB rating). In his previous three seasons with Minnesota, he's had a 91-29 TD/INT ratio and averaged 4,055 YPG passing per season. RB Cook had 1,557 rushing yards in 2020, after gaining 1,135 in 2019, but has played in just four games in 2021 and has 366 yards on 4.6 YPC and two TDs. He did have his best game of the season in Minnesota's 34-28 win in OT vs Carolina. His RB partner Mattison has played in all six games, gaing 268 yards. WRs Jeferson (41 catches and 3 TDs). Thielen (37 catches with 5 TDs) and Osborn (26 catches with 2 TDs), are joined by TE Conklin (22 catches) to give Cousin plenty of targets.

Both defenses are mediocre, as Dallas allows 24.3 PPG (23) and Minnesota 22.8 PPG (13th). However, Minnesota’s defense has held THREE of its last four opponents to 17 points or less. I'll admit that the Cowboys are a lot better than I thought they'd be this year AND a road victory at this tough venue would prove Dallas is indeed for real. Both teams are off a bye week but I'll note that Dallas has gone just 3-8 ATS after recent bye weeks. I realize that the Vikings are not much of a home dog (I got plus-2.5 points on Wednesday) but note that the Vikings are on a 19-7-1 ATS run as a home dog. Minnesota wins but as always, getting a few points is a bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on TB/NO Over at 4:25 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by Friday afternoon by 3:00 ET

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NE Patriots at 4:05 ET.

The Pats lost Tom Brady to Tampa Bay for the 2020 season and while New England fell to 7-9, everyone knows that Brady led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win (his seventh). New England had hoped Cam Newton could regain his MVP form but that was NOT the case and in the 2021 draft took Alabama QB Mac Jones (more on him in a bit). The Pats outplayed but lost to the Dolphins in Week 1 and after a win over the Jets, got thumped at home 28-13 by the Saints. The Pats travel to LA for a game with Chargers, coming off their best effort of the season, albeit against the haliess Jets.

The Chargers eked out a win at Washington in Week 1 and then lost 20-17 at home to Dallas, falling on ag FG in the game's final play. LA then upset the Chiefs in KC, earned an impressive 28-14 home win over the Raiders (MNF) and won a 47-42 shootout against the Browns. LA's three-game winning streak was snapped in a big way, losing 34-6 at Baltimore by the Ravens. At 4-2, LA's bye week (Week 7) came at a good time.

Thrashing the Jets is not a reason to start printing playoff tickets but the Pats may be just 2-2 after a 1-2 start but the two loses came when a last-second game-winning FG (against the Bucs and Brady) hit the left goal post on the game's final play and the other loss came 35-29 (in OT) to the Dallas Cowboys, who are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS. Mac Jones (70.4% for 1,779 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs) continues to show growth with a season-best 307 yards passing against the Jets and two TDs. He did not throw an interception for the first time in five games, further distancing himself from a three-interception game Sep 26 against the New Orleans Saints. The Patriots were also 8-for-8 in the red zone the past two games, another sign that Jones is starting to feel comfortable with New England's complex offense. Harris (437 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TDs) has been solid at RB but the Pats are only averaging 95.4 YPG rushing (23rd). WR Meyers (41 catches but just 9.5 YPC) is joined by Bourne (22 catches / 15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Agholor (19 catches / 14.5 YPC / 2 TDs). I guess New England would love to have Gronk back but TEs Henry and Smith have a combined for 41 catches with 5 TDs. Belichick always puts a good defense on the field and the Pats are allowing 20.0 PPG (6th).

Justin Herbert is in his second season and has been lauded for his play so far. He's completing 65.4% for 1,771 yards with 14 TDs and just 4 iNTs but the Chargers were outplayed in all three phases at Baltimore in Week 6. Herbert threw for a season-low 195 yards and completed only 56.4% of his passes (also a season-worst). All-purpose RB Ekeler (356 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC / 5 TD plus 27 catches for 3 TDs) was held to SEVEN yards rushing (added 4 catches for 48 yards). Like New England, LA's running game is weak, averaging 94.7 YPG (25th). Herbest has All-Pro level receivers in Allen (39 catches / one TD) and Williams (35 catches / 15.1 YPC / 6 TDs) plus TE Cook (22 catches / 2 TDs) is very solid. The defense has looked pretty bad at times and is allowing 25.0 PPG, which ranks 22nd of 32 teams.

New head coach Brandon Staley is viewed as a major upgrade from the fired Anthony Lynn but he surely has NOTHING on Belichick. There is little doubt that the Chargers will remember losing 45-0 at New England last Dec 6 but the Patriots are off their best game of the year and I think they can keep the momentum rolling here. RB Harris has a chance to become the first New England running back since Corey Dillon in 2004 to have three straight 100-yard rushing games and has to LOVE his chances against the Chargers rush D, which is allowing a league-worst 162.5 YPG.

Mac Jones is equaling some milestones Justin Herbert accomplished last season with the Chargers. Jones is the third rookie with at least 170 completions in his first seven starts, joining Herbert and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow. He also has five straight games with at least 225 passing yards and a TD, which was also accomplished by Herbert, Houston's DeShaun Watson and Dallas' Dak Prescott. Jones may just turn out to be the best QB taken in the 2021 Draft (Sorry, Trevor). I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened with a 23-16 upset at Buffalo in Week 1 but then lost THREE in a row, However, the Steelers have rebounded to win two in a row to get back to 3-3. The Browns led KC almost the entire game in Week 1 but lost a close one. The Browns have since won four of six. The AFC South is a talented division in 2021, as the Bengals and Ravens are each 5-2.

Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 252.5 YPG so far and his career average in 239 games is 258.3 YPG. He has just seven TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 88.0 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 388 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) and has added 34 catches, which is tied for 1st on the team, In Pittsburgh's two wins, he's run for 203 yards and a TD plus caught eight passes and another TD. The Steelers answered a sluggish start to the season by winning their two games before heading into the bye week. The Pittsburgh players showed a little 'pep in their step' in Wednesday's practice but WR Chase Claypool had a hunch as to why. "It might be because of the bye week that we have more energy and more fun, or it's because we're playing the Browns," Claypool said. "Either way, we're having more fun out there." Claypool (22 catches / 16.3 YPC / 3 TDs) is expected back after missing Pittsburgh's last game and will join fellow WR Johnson (34 catches / 3 TDs). This is NOT a great Pittsburgh D but it's solid, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 35.2 YPG (13th).

Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. Mayfield rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), throwing just six TDs with three INTs. The Cleveland running game is No. 1 in the NFL at 170.4 YPG. Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC with four TDs) missed the team's last two games but is back here. However, Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs) missed last week as well and remains out. However, D'Ernest Johnson erupted for 146 yards with a TD in his first career start a week ago Thursday and is ready to support Chubb. Cleveland's receiving corps is far from healthy, as Hunt actually leads the team with 20 catches. TE Njoku has 17 catches, averaging a healthy 16.7 YPC but has just one TD catch. The Cleveland defense is allowing only 295.6 YPG (2nd) but allows more points than one would expect (23.6 PPG ranks 18th).

Mayfield returns here after his injured left (non-throwing) shoulder and torn labrum kept him out of Cleveland's 17-14 victory over the Denver Broncos back on Oct 21. Chubb, who has missed Cleveland's last two games, is also back. Many are down on Pittsburgh but I'm a fan of Mike Tomlin, who has consistently gotten the most out of the hands he's been dealt. Heading into last year's playoff game, the Steelers had dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Can you say "pay back?" Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 7:30 ET.

North Carolina went 8-4 last season and despite losing some key offensive performers (more later), the Tar Heels returned Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howll and 10 defensive starters. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll, the school's highest preseason ranking since being ranked No. 7 at the start of the 1997 season (in Mack Browns' first tenure at Chapel Hill). However, the Tar Heels 'limp' into South Bend unranked with a HUGELY disappointing 4-3. Notre fDame opened 10-0 last season before losing 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC championship. The Irish still made CFB's 'Final 4,' but lost 31-14 to Alabama in a contest in which the final score hardly reflected Alabama's domination of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly's team entered the current season with just three returning starters on offense and six on defense but was ranked No. 9 in the preseason (name recognition helps, huh?) The Irish have struggled at times this season (more below) but are currently 6-1 and hold down the No. 11 spot in the AP's latest poll.

QB Howell has excellent numbers (61.6% for 1,851 yards with 18 TDs and 6 INTs plus 494 rushing yards with 5 scores), despite losing WRs Brown (55 catches / 20.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Newsome (54 catches / 6 TDs), as well as a pair of 1,000-yard RBs. Carter ran for 1,245 yards on 8.0 YPC with 9 TDs and Williams for 1,140 yards on 7.3 YPC and 19 TDs! RB Chandler has 588 yards on 5.5 YPC with 7 TDs and along with Howell, has the Tar Heels averaging 199.1 YPG on the ground. Sophomore WR Downs caught just seven passes last year but has 60 this season (13.8 YPC / 7 TDs), while TE Morales has 16 catches but 4 TDs. Despite 10 returning starters on defense, the Tar Heels are allowing 28.9 PPG, only slightly less than last season (29.4 PPG).

Notre Dame is off a solid 31-16 win over USC last Saturday but the Irish have lost to their toughest opponent (24-13 at home to now-No. 2 Cincinnati) plus have won THREE games by just three points, over FSU in OT, Toledo and Va Tech. The team's 41-13 win at Wisconsin looks great on paper but Notre Dame actually trailed 13-10 in the fourth quarter of that contest. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special. He's completing 63.5% for 1,397 yards with 11 TDs and four INTs plus gets very little help from a running game that averages 106.7 YPG (117th!), after averaging 211 YPG on the ground last season. TE Mayer leads the team with 37 catches with WRs Austin and Davis hauling in just 22 and 20, respectively. The defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (not bad) but also not up to the standards of the previous three seasons (19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG).

Here's the rub. This game is really a 'must-win" for North Carolina. The Tar Heels host 7-0 Wake Forest (No. 13) for a Homecoming game next Saturday and then play at 6-1 Pitt (No. 17) the following weekend. Those games won't mean much if the Tar Heels fall to 4-4 here. Not many teams have gone into South Bend and come away with a win in recent years (Bearcats are the exception) but this Howell-led offense is MORE than capable of outscoring the Coan-led offense, which gets NOTHING from its running game. Upset Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SEC Game of the Week is on Miss St at 7:00 ET.

The Kentucky Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryany era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. The Wildcats got last weekend off (probably a good thing) and Saturday night travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi St Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2). 

Kentucky head coach Mike Stoops is in his 9th season with Kentucky and he's well ahead of pace to become his best team since arriving in Lexington. QB Will Levis is completing 67.2% for 1,326 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs, despite a very mediocre cast of receivers. WR Robinson has 49 catches with five TDs but no other player has more than 17 receptions. However, Levis is helped by a strong running game averaging 190.9 YPG (41st), led by Rodriguez (755 yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs). The Kentiucky defense is first-rate, allowing 19.3 PPG (24th) on 321.0 YPG (22nd).

A Mike Leach offense always centers around its QB and Will Rogers is filling the bill VERY nicely. He's completing 73.5% for 2,546 yards with 18 TDs and seven INTs. In stark comparison to Kentucky, Miss St has SIX players with 25 receptions or more, with WR Polk (58 catches / 6 TDs) leading the way and RB Marks catching 49. Marks has just 194 yards rushing and that's the Bulldogs' 'kryptonite,' as Miss St averages 48.7 YPG on the ground (2.5 YPC), LAST among the 130 FBS teams. Defensively, Miss St allows just five more YPG than Kentucky but about a TD more per game (25.7)

The Wildcats have dropped their last five games in Starkville and Kentucky hasn't beaten the Bulldogs in Mississippi since 2008. I'm not sure the bye week will help Kentucky end its woes on Halloween weekend in a venue that's become a 'House of Horrors (see above). Let me add that Miss St has outscored Kentucky 115-36 in its last three wins here in Starkville. Throw in that recent series history also shows that the home team is 6-0 SU & ATS and the Bulldogs are the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin (12:00 ET).

Iowa's Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by four points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa opened the season No. 18 in the AP's preseason poll and ripped off SIX straight wins, three over ranked teams. Iowa was the nation's No. 2 ranked team when it saw its 12-game winning (10-2 ATS) streak end with a 24-7 at Purdue on Oct 16. The 6-1 Hawkeyes had a welcome bye last Saturday and visit Camp Randall on Saturday to face 4-3 Wisconsin.

Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers had already lost TWICE and fallen out of the top-25. The Badgers lost 38-17 at home to Michigan to open October to fall to 1-3. Head coach Paul Chryst is in his seventh year at Madison and entered the season 56-19 with six bowl appearances (5-1) but the 2021 season was on the verge of slipping away. However, the Badgers have rebounded to win THREE in a row, including last Saturday's impressive 30-13 road win over then-No. 25 Purdue (fresh off its win over Iowa).

Iowa relies on an outstanding defense, which is allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) on 301.1 YPG 12th), while forcing a nation-best 16 takeaways. Those takeaways have helped a poor Iowa offense to average 28.0 PPG. Iowa is averaging only 311.1 YPG (120th), including 116.9 YPG (103rd) on the ground. QB Spencer Petras completes just 59.5% for 1,333 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. RB Godson is solid (586 yards on 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but as a team, the Hawkeyes average a woeful 3.1 YPC. TE LaPorta is the only player with more than 20 catches, with 28 receptions and two TDs.

Wisconsin QB Mertz is having a terrible season, completing 55.9% for 945 yards with two INTs and seven INTs. However, during the team's three-game winning streak, he's avoided missteps, throwing just one INT in 42 attempts. He's stepped out of the way and Wisconsin's two  outstanding RBs (Mellusi and Allen) take over. Wisconsin has run for 879 yards in its three wins (293.0 YPG), with Allen topping 100 yards in all three and Mellusi in two of the three. On the season, Mellusi has 692 yards on 6.2 YPC with 4 TDs and Allen 428 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs. The Wisconsin D has been strong all season but in its three wins, has allowed only 27 total points. Wisconsin rush D ranks 1st in the nation, allowing only 53.3 YPG.

Sure, after a bye week and a loss to Purdue, Iowa will be primed for a bounce back but Camp Randall is the WRONG place at the WRONG time for that to happen. Running the ball against Wisconsin seems like too big of a hill to climb and Petras is NOT the type of QB to win it with his arm. The 'savior' for Iowa would be for its defense to force Wisconsin into mistakes (TOs) but Wisconsin has not fallen prey to that these last three weeks.

Wisconsin has won SEVEN of its last nine vs Iowa and it's Homecoming at Camp Randall. A Wisconsin win and the Badgers will be 3-2, tied with Iowa in the Big Ten West, plus will own the tiebreaker. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC Game of the Week is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET.

The defending champions Bucs are 6-1 (just 3-4 ATS) but many may feel that Tampa Bay is still the NFL's best team. However, the Thursday Night game between the 6-1 Packers (6-1 ATS) and 7-0 Cards (6-1 ATS) features a matchup of teams that are also staking a claim as being the NFL's best team (I can hear Dallas bettors crying, we are 6-0 ATS!). The Packers were steamrolled 38-3 by the Saints in Week 1 but have won SIX in a row both SU and ATS. However, Green Bay got some VERY bad news at the beginning of the week that WR Davante Adams.was placed on the COVID-19 list. As for the Cardinals, they are 7-0 for the first time since 1974 when they resided in St Louis and were guided by coaching legend Don Coryell.

Rodgers endured the worst loss of his professional career in that Week 1 loss (133 passing yards with zero TDs and two INTs) but has since thrown 15 TD passes with just one INT in Green Bay's last six wins, He's completing 68.3% for 1,710 yards with 15 TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of 108.2. RB Aaron Jones is a true dual threat, rushing for 404 yards (4.5 YPC / 2 TDs), while catching 26 passes (2nd-most on the team) for another four TDs. That said, Green Bay is averaging only 102.0 YPG on the ground (19th). Adams has 52 catches (14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) but with him out, other than Jones, no other player has more than 15 catches. The Green Bay defense has been very solid, allowing 20.9 PPG (8th) on 331.8 YPG (7th). 

Rodgers is an "all-timer" at QB, something Arizona's Tyler Murray is building a case to become. He's completing 73.5% fro 2,002 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs (116.8 QB rating). The running game is underappreciated but is averaging 136.6 YPG (5th), featuring two solid RBs. Edmonds has 397 rushing yards (5.8 YPC / 0 TDs) and Conner has 336 yards. He averages just 3.8 YPC (two full yards less than Edmonds but has scored SIX touchdowns!). Even with a 100% Adams, the Cards' receiving corps is much better and WAY deeper than that of the Packers. Hopkins (33 catches / 7 TDs) and Kirk (30 / 4 TDs) have now been joined by AJ Green (24 catches / a team-high 16.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Purdue rookie Moore (26 catches). What's more, Arizona recently traded for TE Ertz (3-time All -Pro with Philly), and he caught three passes in his first game last Sunday, one for a 47-yard TD. I noted that Green Bay's defense was solid but Arizona's has played as well as any in the league, allowing 316.7 YPG (4th) and 16.3 PPG (best in the league!).

Arizona's offense averages 32.1 PPG (4th), EIGHT points higher than Green Bay's. One can recap the comparison of defenses above. Speaking of COVID-19 issues, Packers also will be without defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who is in COVID protocols. That leaves Green Bay missing its defensive mastermind as it attempts to slow down an Arizona offense averaging 32.1 PPG. It isn't 100 percent that Adams will miss but fellow WR Lazard also landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and he WILL miss Thursday's game. That means, unless Marquez Valdes-Scantling can come off injured reserve (he's missed the last four games with a hamstring injury), the Packers could be without their top three wideouts vs Arizona.

Yes, the line has 'jumped' upon the above news but NOT enough to get me off the Cards. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.

The Drew Brees era came to a close last season in New Orleans and the Saints are second-to-last in the NFL with 169.4 YPG through the air, well off the standard set by Brees and Co. The Saints are currently 3-2 and will likely be playing for a wild card berth as their 'ticket' into the postseason (The Tampa Bay Bradys are 6-1 to lead the NFC South). That said, compared to Seattle, New Orleans is 'cruising' in 2021. The 2-4 Seahawks are faltering at a level rarely seen over the past decade, as Seattle entered the current season having made the postseason in NINE of Pete Carroll's 11 seasons with Seattle, including EIGHT of nine times since Russell Wilson became the team's starting QB in his rookie season.

QB Jameis Winston has just 892 passing yards but has 12 TD passes, and only three INTs (in 116 attempts) for a QB rating of 108.1 (his career QB rating is 86.1!). RB Kamara (368 yards on 3.9 YPC / just one TD) is also the team's leading receiver with 15 catches. However, WRs Harris (12 catches ) and Gallaway (13 catches) have modest reception totals, they've averaged 19.7 and 17.1 YPC, respectively. Defensively, the Saints are allowing just 18.2 PPG (4th-best).

Seattle's woes have a lot to do with the loss of QB Russell Wilson (72.0% with 10 TDs and one INT plus a QB rating of 125.3) to a finger injury and starting RB Chris Carson (232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs with neck troubles that have forced him to miss the last two games. Geno Smith started last week at QB and completed 23 of 32 for 209 yards with one TD and zero INTs but he's NO Wilson! You think? Smith's fumble while being sacked in overtime led to Pittsburgh's winning score. Collins was the featured back and ran for 101 yards (5.1 YPC) and a TD. WRs Metcalf (31 catches / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Lockett (27 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) are excellent but that's when Wilson is the one throwing to them. Getting back to Collins, he came out of last Sunday's game 'beat up!'

However, Seattle's offense is not Carroll's biggest concern. It's a defense that's allowing 433.2 YPG, dead-last in the NFL (32nd). After giving up more than 450 total yards in four straight games (that tied an NFL record), the Seahawks were better last week holding the Steelers to 345 yards. However, Seattle still hasn't held an opponent under 100 yards rushing (can you say a breakout game by Kamara?) and continues to get very little out of its pass rush (had zero sacks against Pittsburgh in the OT loss). The Saints are coming off their bye week and more than a few players will be back from injuries.

New Orleans has been VERY kind  to its backs on the road, going 36-15 ATS in its last 51 as the visiting side. The Saints will have no mercy here on the struggling home team in this one. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SNF Magic Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

Week 7's SNF features two teams badly in need of a win. Indianapolis is 2-4 but plays in the weak AFC South. Tennessee leads at 4-2 but has to host the Chiefs on Sunday, off its MNF thriller over the Bills. In contrast, San Francisco is 2-3 and is stuck in the NFC West, which features the NFL's only unbeaten team (Arizona at 6-0) and the LA Rams, who are 5-1. That said, the team that loses here will see its playoff chances headed for 'life support,' even though the season has yet to reach its midpoint. The Colts have been consistently inconsistent this season but they're off a big 31-3 win over lowly Houston at home. The 49ers are hoping to bounce back after they lost 17-10 at Arizona in their latest matchup. That came two weeks ago, so they're now fully rested after their bye week, which really came at an opportune time early in the season.

Carson Wentz, the former Philadelphia Eagles QB was acquired in the offseason that reunited him with Frank Reich, who was Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for Wentz's first two NFL seasons (2016-17). Wentz looked like he was headed to stardom when he threw a career-high 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2017 but his production went down after Reich departed to become the Colts' head coach. Wentz had just 16 TD passes and a career-worst 15 interceptions in 2020, losing his starting job to Jalen Hurts. However, reunited with Reich has worked out well, with Wentz completing 64.2% for 1,545 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (102.4 QB rating. In fact, Wentz is looking to throw multiple TD passes for the FOURTH straight game Sunday night. RB Taylor started poorly but has averaged 99.3 YPG over his last three, after rushing for 145 yards with two TDs vs Houston. WR Pittman leads with 31 catches but the bad news is that TY Hilton, who returned from a neck injury with four catches for 80 yards in his 2021 debut, has been ruled out. The Indy defense is solid, allowing 21.8 PPG (11th).

San Francisco was on the verge of a QB controversy but Trey Lance, who started against Arizona, sprained his left knee in that game and was ruled out Friday. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting QB, as he returns from a calf injury that caused him to miss the Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "During the bye week, we made great strides," Garoppolo said Wednesday. "It will get better every day. Right now, it feels great." Jimmy G has completed 66.1% for 925 yards with five TD sand two INTs. Is he San Francisco's QB of the future? Not sure! The team's running game has been devastated by injuries but has still managed to average 122.0 YPG (12th). It won't help Jimmy G that George Kittle, the best TE outside of Kelce, remains out but WR WR Deebo Samuel had 71 yards from scrimmage and his fourth career TD run in Week 5 loss to Arizona, plus has at least five catches in four of five games this season (31 catches / 17.7 YPC / 3 TDs). The Nick Bosa-led defense (Bosa has five sacks, the most through five games for the franchise since Bryant Young had six in 2005) is allowing a modest 329.8 YPG (6th) but 23.8 YPG (16th)?

Here's two contrasting trends. The 49ers are a horrific 0-9 their last nine as a home favorite (aren't they due?) but 11-5 ATS in non-conference games. Sometimes, when a team is rolling and on a win streak, a "bye week" can throw a proverbial "monkey wrench" into their well-oiled chemistry, but in this case, the bye came at a great time for a San Francisco team that opened 2-0 but has now lost THREE straight. "We could easily be sitting at 5-0 right now," 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. "Obviously, we're not. We're 2-3 but we go back and revisit every loss, you can find some good in that. There were some things where we could have won some games but we didn't take advantage of the situations." He may be exaggerating a little but the 49ers are NOT a sub-.500 team. Lay the short price as San Francisco moves to 3-3.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL "Featured" O/U is Det/LAR Over at 4:05 ET.

The 0-6 Detroit Lions will be in Los Angeles on Sunday to take on the  5-1 LA Rams. QB Jared Goff, who the Rams made the overall No. 1 pick of the 206 Draft will be back in LA to face his former team for the first time since the Rams engineered a trade last offseason that brought QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams from the Lions. The move to secure Stafford has gone well, as the Rams sit at 5-1,  just below the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. As for Goff's move to Detroit? Not so much! The same cannot be said for the Lions. Detroit is 0-6 and still looking for its first win under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. Speaking honestly (rare for any coach or manager these days), Rams head coach Sean McVay said the handling of Goff's departure wasn't exactly a smooth process. "I wish there was better, clearer communication," McVay said. "To say that it was perfectly handled on my end, I wouldn't be totally accurate in that. I'll never claim to be perfect, but I will try to learn from some things that I can do better, and I think that was one of them without a doubt."

Goff is completing 66.8% for 1,505 yards with seven TDs and four TDs. He doesn't have much to work with as the running game averages 91.8 YPG (23rd). RB Swift is the team's leading receiver (34) and TE Hockenson checks in with 32. Neither player averages as much a 10.0 YPC! The Detroit defense gave up 76 points in its first two games but then held opponents to just 20.7 over its next three. However, Joe Burrow  and the Bengals scored 34 points against them last Sunday and now the Lions face ex-teammate Stafford, who could easily wind up with a career season.

That's saying something, as Stafford had thrown for more than 4,000 yards in EIGHT different seasons. However, he's completing 69.5% through six games for 1,838 yards (that puts him on pace for about 5,200 yards in this 17-game season) and he's thrown 16 TDs against just four INTs. His QB rating of 116.6 is almost 16 points higher than his career average of 90.8. The Rams running game is no bargain (103.5 YPG ranks 21st) but Stafford has a pair of excellent veteran WRs in Kupp (46 catches / 7 TDs) and Woods (29 catches / 3 TDs), a second-year WR in Jefferson who has 17 catches (had just 19 in his rookie season) and a quality TE in Higbee (22 catches and two TDs). The LA defense is allowing 21.2 PPG (10th) and won't feel threatened against a Detroit offense averaging only 18.2 PPG.

Then again, I'm predicting that Goff has his best of the season here, against the team that "done him wrong!" Goff is going to have his hands full with this aggressive Rams pass rush, but I don't think he'll go down without putting up a fight. That said, Stafford appears to be "a man on a mission" this year (finally on a team with a real chance to make some 'noise' in the postseason) and I have a hard time seeing the Lions slowing him down on his own field. With these two highly motivated QBs going head-to-head, all signs point to this total blasting past the posted number sooner, rather than later. It's Goin' Over. BE THERE!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

It's Week 7 and Sunday's game between the 4-2 Bengals and 5-1 Ravens at Baltimore means a win by Cincy ties the two teams atop the AFC Central (with Cincy owning the tiebreaker) but a win by Baltimore moves the Ravens two games ahead of the Bengals. The Bengals have looked good so far but they will have to overcome recent history that reveals that since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB midway through 2018, the Ravens are 5-0 against the Bengals. That said, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is taking nothing for granted. "The (Bengals') whole team is one of the best teams in the National Football League right now," Harbaugh told reporters. "There's no question about it -- just watch them play. ... We've got our hands full."

I couldn't agree more with Harbaugh. Joe Burrow, who actually made LSU's Ed Orgeron look like a 'real' head coach, went 19-for-29 for 271 passing yards, with three TDs and an interception last week to guide the Bengals past winless Detroit. In doing so, he became the second first- or second-year QB ever to throw for multiple TDs in each of the first six games of a season, joining Dan Marino (not bad company!). Burrow is completing 70.7% for 1,540 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs. He has the best RB on the field Sunday in Joe Mixon (480 yards on 4.3 YPC with 3 TDs) plus owns a good receiving corps. WR Chase has 27 catches, averaging 20.5 YPC with five TDs. Boyd and Higgins are solid possession receivers and TE Uzomah has 14 catches (11.8 YPC / 3 TDs). Cincy's real improvement is on defense, as the Bengals are allowing 18.5 PPG (5th) on just 331.0 YPG (8th). The Bengals ranked 26th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last season.

Baltimore lost RBs Dobbins and Edwards before the season started but Baltimore still averages 155.2 YPG on the ground (4th). That's because Lamar Jackson has run for 392 yards on 6.1 YPC with five TDs, Jackson is having an excellent season throwing the ball as well, completing 67.5% for 1.686 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. TE Andrews (34 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) leads the team in receptions but WR Brown has 32 catches (15.2 YPC / 5 TDs). The defense is not quite as dominating as years past but is allowing a modest 20.7 PPG (7th) in 359.3 YPG (18th).

Yes, this is Baltimore's third straight home game but this is a different Cincy team than the Ravens have faced in recent years. Joe Burrow is "special" and the defense is GREATLY improved. Baltimore crushed the Chargers last Sunday but back in Week 5 (MNF), Baltimore needed a 16-3 4th quarter to get into OT vs the Colts, before winning with a TD in OT. This is a "statement" game for Cincy. Are the Bengals real or are they 'Memorex?' Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 7, find themselves 3-3 and tied for last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Good news is that the Chargers and Raiders are just 4-2 and the 2021 season features 17 games. The Titans opened the season losing 38-10 at home to the Cardinals and the loss was a bit of a shocker. SIX weeks later, Arizona is the NFL's lone unbeaten at 6-0 (5-1 ATS). Tennessee has won four of five since, losing only 27-24 in OT at the Jets (now that REMAINS a head-scratcher!). KC is off 31-13 win at Washington, while Tennessee is off an impressive 34-31 home win Monday night over the Bills.

Patrick Mahomes is completing 69.0% for 1,887 yards with 18 TDs and eight INTs. Those are impressive numbers but let me point out that his eight INTs in six games (242 attempts) compares VERY poorly to his total of just 11 INTs the last two seasons combined (1,072 attempts). KC's running game took a hit with Edwards-Helaire (304 yards of 4.7 YPC) missing last week and now being placed on IR. Mahomes still has the best WR/TE combo in the league in Hill (46 catches / 5 TDs) and Kelce (38 catches / 4 TDs). KC's defense is struggling, ranking 28th in both scoring D (29.3 PPG) and total D (410.5 YPG).

Tennessee QB Tannehill (63.4% for 1,467 yards) has just six TDs and four INTs. His two-best WRs (Jones and Brown) are both hurting and their status will become available no sooner than Saturday. However, RB Henry continues to prove he can 'carry' Tennessee's offense. He had just 58 yards (on 3.4 YPC) in the Week 1 loss to Arizona but he's run for 100-plus yards in FIVE straight (averaging 145.0 YPG). He has three TDs in the last two games, giving him 10 on the season. Defensively, the Titans are only slightly better than the Chiefs, ranking 24th in allowing 26.8 PPG on 384.0 YPG.

Here we go. A combination of turnovers (Kansas City leads the NFL in giveaways with14) and shoddy defense from Kansas City has contributed to the Chiefs being just 3-3. An interesting note is that Kansas City has gone "over" its projected season win total seven years straight coming into the 2021 season, so to keep that streak alive it'll now have to "run the table." More notably, going back to the middle part of the 2020 season, Kansas City's win and cover still makes them just  3-11 ATS its last 14 games (79% "go-against").

Until Kansas City can show any type of consistency from week to week, I have a hard time trusting the Chiefs, especially on the road against Tennessee (which is NO Washington). Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Losers Day Out play is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

Atlanta joined the NFL in 1966, the same year Miami entered the AFL. The Falcons have been to just ONE Super Bowl (2016) and blew a 28-3 lead. The Dolphins won back-to-back Super Bowls ('72 & '73) and have NOT won one since. 2-4 Atlanta is at 1-5 Miami on Sunday in what I'm dubbing a "Losers Day Out" play. The Falcons are 2-3 but note that the wins have come over the Giants and Jets, who are a combined 2-9. Miami won at New England in Week 1 but has since lost FIVE in a row (1-4) The Falcons have played the Dolphins just three times in Matt Ryan's career (Atlanta is 1-2) but note that in each meeting, Miami's had a different QB lead them. That trend will continue Sunday, as Tua Tagovailoa has never faced Atlanta. Previous Miami QBs that Ryan has gone up against are Chad Pennington (2009), Ryan Tannehill (2013) and Jay Cutler (2017).

Let's start with Ryan. and one of the silliest nicknames anyone has ever given someone who has NEVER won anything, "Matty Ice." Are you kidding me? Yes, Ryan has thrown for better than 4,000 yards in 10 straight seasons but the ONLY time he led his team to a Super Bowl was in the 2016 season, when the Falcons lost in OT after leading 28-3 in the third quarter. Ryan is completing 69.1% for 1,332 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs but his receiving corps is not what it used to be. Rookie TE Pitts (24 catches) could be a future star but WR Patterson (25 catches / 11.8 YPC / 4 TDs) is NO Julio Jones. As for the running game, Atlanta averages just 3.7 YPC on 91.0 YPG (24th). The offense is averaging only 21.0 PPG, which does NOT bode well with a defense allowing 29.6 PPG (30th).

OK, the Dolphins can match Atlanta's ineptitude both offensively AND defensively. Miami is averaging only 16.5 PPG (29th), while allowing 29.5 PPG (29th). Yes, the Dolphins were beaten by Jacksonville 23-20 in London Last Sunday, allowing the Jags to snap a 20-game losing streak. However, Tua returned against the Jaguars and did some good things, completing 33 of 47 passes for 329 yards and two TDs, as the Dolphins converted on 9 of 17 third-down plays.  It doesn't help that Miami ranks dead-last in rushing at 71.5 YPG (3.7 YPC). Miami's top playmakers right now are TE Mike Gesicki and rookie WR Jaylen Waddle. Gesicki has 30 catches for a team-high 342 yards and one TD, while Waddle has a team-high 37 catches for 301 yards and three TDs (note: his 8.1 YPC is FAR below what was expected.

Miami does have the disadvantage of coming home from London WITHOUT a week off and Atlanta does come in off a bye but that won't deter me from playing the Dolphins in this one. Let me note that Atlanta was a horrific 1-11 ATS vs non-conference opponents from 2017-19 and has done better in 2020 and the early part of 2021 (4-1 ATS), but I want NO part of them laying points here. Miami was 10-6 SU last season and ended the year going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its final six home games. Of course, the Dolphins are clearly NOT the same team they were in 2020 but a loss here and one can 'put a fork' in Miami's 2021 season. I won't beat a dead horse." This is my last try on Miami.

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* CFB Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET.

USC/Notre Dame is the greatest intersectional rivalry in CFB history. The schools had met in every season since World War II before this long standing rivalry took a one-season break due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. "It's baaack!" in 2021, as No. 13 Notre Dame (5-1) hosts an underachieving USC team that opened 15th in the AP's preseason poll but is currently unranked with a 3-3 record. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 47-36-5, as after after winning SEVEN straight in the series, the Trojans have lost SEVEN of the last 10, including four straight in South Bend.

USC is no longer referred to as "Tailback U," as the Trojans are averaging a modest 129.8 YPG on the ground (93rd), although RB Ingram (419 yards on 5.7 YPC) is a solid player. QB Kedon Slovis was often mentioned as a Heisman hopeful coming into the season but has NOT played like one. He's completing 64.0% for 1,519 yards but has a modest 9-5 TD/INT ratio. He does own an outstanding WR in Drake London, who can make a case for being the best WR in the nation. He has 64 catches for 832 yards and five TDs.  His reception total ranks second nationally and the yardage ranks fourth. The USC defense is pretty mediocre, allowing 27.3 PPG (79th) on 382.2 YPG (69th).

Notre Dame's lone blemish this season came in a 24-13 home loss to then-No. 7 Cincinnati on Oct 2 (Bearcats are now No. 2 in the nation!). Notre Dame is off a bye (so is USC), eking out a 32-29 win at Virginia Tech 32-29 in its most recent game  Head coach Brian Kelly said that Jack Coan (62.1%  for 1,208 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs) would be the starting QB against USC but that Tyler Buchner also would see action. Coan began the season with 366 yards and four TDs against Florida State but has seen his yardage drop in all of the ensuing games. He threw for 108 yards against Virginia Tech while splitting time with Buchner (113 yards). Notre Dame's running game is worse than USC's, averaging only 96.2 YPG (119th) on a pathetic 2.9 YPC. The Irish do have some quality receivers in TE Meyer (32 catches / 3 TDs) plus WRs Austin and Davis, who each have 18 receptions while both are averaging over 17.0 YPC with a combined five TD catches. Notre Dame's defense is not bad (24.3 PPG and 360.7 YPG allowed) but it's clearly NOT in the class of a defense that allowed 19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG the previous three seasons.

USC could surely use a big victory during a season that has been overshadowed by the firing of Clay Helton after a loss to Stanford in Week 2. Donte Williams is serving as interim coach while athletic director Mike Bohn works on making a hire to lead the program. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly reacted by saying, "USC is going through a coaching change. We understand that, but this team plays extremely well against Notre Dame. It's a rivalry game, and they've played very well on the road. I'm sure that's because they can get away from the distractions that they're dealing with on a day-to-day basis. So, we expect to get the best version of USC, which will be a very good football team."

I agree with Kelly (never thought I'd say that!). USC has lost all three Pac-12 home games but has won 45-14 at Washington St and 37-14 at Colorado. Those teams are NOT Notre Dame but note that THREE of Notre Dame's five wins have come by three points plus its wins over Purdue and Wisconsin were VERY deceiving final scores (if you don't believe, look it up!). The Irish are just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2020, while USC has played well coming off a loss for quite a while now, going 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 following a SU loss. This game always means a lot to both schools but I HAVE to believe this one "means more" to USC.

Trojans running back Vavae Malepeai (who?) made it clear his team plans to go into South Bend and come out with a victory. "There's a lot of history behind this game," Malepeai said. "We're putting it on our shoulders to make sure we get that job done." Hell, earlier I agreed with Brian Kelly (who I can't stand), so I may as well agree with someone I never heard of. Take the points. "Fight On!"

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd play of my STP is an 8* on Ga Tech at 7:30 ET.

The Cavaliers (5-2, 3-2 ACC) scored on all six first-half possessions and cruised to a 48-0 blowout of the Blue Devils last Saturday, while the Yellow Jackets (3-3, 2-2) seized the lead with 51 seconds left in a 31-27 win against Duke in their most recent game (Oct. 9). Virginia lost 59-39 to North Carolina and then 37-17 to Wake Forest but has ripped off three straight wins since, nail-biters over Mia-Fl (30-28) and 34-33 over Louisville, prior to the beatdown of Duke. Ga Tech gave then-No. 6 Clemson all it wanted in a 14-8 loss, before shocking then-No. 21 North Carolina, 45-22. Ga Tech is off a bye week

The Yellow Jackets have lost their last three games on Cavaliers' home field, and 12 of 14 since 1992. However, head coach Geoff Collins hopes that is about to change. Back on Oct 9 against Duke, QB Jeff Sims led a clutch six-play, 88-yard drive in the final two minutes, capped by a 36-yard TD pass. Sims finished with 297 yards on 12-of-25 passing with three scores and two interceptions. He has accounted for 10 TDs (six passing, four rushing) in his last three games and is now the clear starter at QB. "Jeff's a big-time player," Collins said. "Obviously, we want to eliminate those early turnovers moving forward, but he's a big-time player. ... The guys have faith in him." Ga Tech has a trio of quality RBs and the team averages 169.0 YPG (61st)

UVA's offense is centered around QB Brennan Armstrong, who has completed 63.8% for 2,824 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs. WR Kemp has 48 catches but averages inluy9.9 YPC (he does have four TDs). Fellow WR Wicks has 32 catches and averages 21.2 YC with six TDs while TE Woods has 23 catches and five TDs. The running game offers little help, averaging 119.9 YPG (10st). UVA's defense allows 24.4 PPG (to Ga Tech's 25.7 PPG) but is giving up way too many yards (413.1, which ranks 94th). UVA has the better QB but as Ga Tech coach Collins points out, Sims is making his mark and his confidence (and the team's) is growing.

Ga Tech is more than capable of sneaking up on UVA, which has a trip to BYU up next for the Cavaliers (note: UVA head coach Bronco Mendenhall left BYU for UVA after the 2015 season, having taken the Cougars to 11 bowls in his 11 seasons at Provo). Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd play of my STP is an 8* on La Tech at 7:00 ET.

Clemson (No. 3), Iowa St (No. 7) and North Carolina (No. 10) were all ranked in the AP's preseason top-10 but are all currently unranked (and own a combined SEVEN loses), yet UTSA has opened 7-0 (3-0 in C-USA) and with road wins at Illinois and Memphis, Roadrunners are ranked for the first time in program history, at No. 24. Can't make this stuff up! The question UTSA must answer Saturday night when the Roadrunners visit Ruston, La., for a C-USA matchup with Louisiana Tech is, "can they handle success?". UTSA surely had no problem with Rice last Saturday, blanking the Owls 45-0. Second-year coach Jeff Traylor called it the team's most complete game. "It was by far the best game we have played in all three phases," he said. "This was a big game with a lot of pressure on those kids. Those kids understand the pressure. They came out and played as good as I have seen them play." This is the 11th year of the Roadrunners' program, which was started in 2011 under former Miami coach Larry Coker. He went 26-32 in five years and was replaced by Frank Wilson, who posted a 19-29 mark from 2016 to 2019 and took the school to its first bowl game. Traylor came aboard in December 2019 after serving as running backs coach at Arkansas and posted a 7-5 mark last year, guiding the program to its second bowl appearance. A third bowl game is all but assured now.

Louisiana Tech is just 2-4 (1-1 in C-USA), after a 19-3 conference loss last week at surprising UTEP. The Roadrunners are the second ranked team Louisiana Tech has played in 2021, In that one, the Bulldogs could have forced overtime at N.C. State before a final-snap interception allowed the Wolfpack to close out a 34-27 win in Raleigh back on Oct 2. "It doesn't get any easier," Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz said. "It's going to be a great challenge for us. I'm glad we have the opportunity to come back home." Holtz knows more than a little bit about winning, as he led La Tech to SIX consecutive bowl wins from 2014-2019, before losing 38-3 to Ga Southern in last year's New Orleans Bowl.

UTSA's offense is led by QB  Frank Harris, who has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 1,600 yards, with a 14-3 touchdown-interception ratio. RB McCormick has rushed for 778 yards on 4.7 YPC with six TDs (team averages 18.0 YPG on the ground to rank 48th). A trio of WRs, Joshua Cephus, Zakhari Franklin and De'Corian Clark, have combined for 113 receptions and accounted for 14 TDs. UTSA's defense is allowing just 19.1 PPG (22nd) on 323.3 YPG (31st) and is greatly helped by having forced 14 turnovers.

La Tech averages 28.3 PPG, led by QB Austin Kendall, who has thrown for 1,342 yards and 10 TDs in five games, with eight INTs (he's completing 59.5%). He has a mediocre receiving corps and the Bulldogs' running game averages only 123.8 YPG (98th).The La Tech defense is allowing 31.0 PPG (99th) on a whopping 457.3 YPG (118th).

Clearly, La Tech does NOT match up well on paper but we all know games are NOT played on paper. The Bulldogs, particularly under Skip Holtz own a fairly impressive history. Look how close La Tech came to NC St on the road (see above). This marks the Bulldogs first home game since a 24-17 conference victory over North Texas back on Sep 25. Note that last season, that UTSA was only able to eke out a 27-26 victory in San Antonio and that Louisiana Tech owns a 7-2 lead in the all-time series, First-ever game as a ranked team and the Roadrunners draw a La Tech team that is 5-0 when hosting UTSA, winning by a margin of 19 PPG! 'Bow Wow!' Take the points. Upset Alert? Just maybe.

Good luck...Larry

The first play of my STP is an 8* on Clemson at 3:30 ET.

Clemson began the season ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but opened with a 10-3 loss to then-No. 5 Georgia. The way the Bulldogs have played here in 2021 (now a unanimous No. 1), that loss is nothing to be ashamed of. However, when the Tigers visit  Pittsburgh for the first time in program history on Saturday, Clemson will come in 4-2 and unranked, while the Panthers are 5-1 and ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. The last time Pitt won 10 games was back in 2009, while Clemson came into the current season having won 10-plus games in every season since going 6-7 in 2010.

That said, Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi isn't buying the perception that the Tigers are a mere shell of their former self. "They're obviously a great football team," Narduzzi said. "I know they're not tops in the country right now, but they are talented. They're one of the top scoring defenses in the country." Narduzzi is correct on that count, as the Tigers are allowing 12.5 PPG (2nd) and have allowed only two rushing TDs this season. However, Clemson's offense is quite another story, as after averaging 44.3, 43.9 and 43.5 PPG behind Trevor Lawrence the previous three seasons, Clemson QB Uiagalelei has NOT been ready for primetime. Clemson is averaging just 20.5 PPG, ranking 113th in the nation. Say it Ain't so, DJ!

The QB of note in this game will be Pitt's Kenny Pickett, who is completing 69.8% for 1,934 yards with 21 TDs and just one INT. WR Addison has 34 catches (17.2 YPC / 9 TDs) plus TE Krull checks with just 17 receptions but five TDs. Pitt's defense is not quite in Clemson's class but the Panthers are allowing just 20.0 PPG (34th) on 319.3 YPG (26th). That's nothing to shake a stick at, as my grandfather used to say.

Clemson will enter this game as an underdog in an Atlantic Coast Conference game for the first time since 2016 and that should add plenty of motivation (the good old chip on the shoulder kind). It's also worthy of noting that Pittsburgh beat the Tigers in Clemson 43-42 midway through the 2016 season, a year in which the Tigers went on to win the national championship that season. Clemson has won 31 straight home games since that loss and has dominated both meetings against Pitt since, winning 42-10 in the 2018 ACC Championship Game and 52-17 last season at Clemson.

Clemson is 0-6 ATS and Pittsburgh is 5-1. Something tells me those trends reverse here. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 3:30 ET.

BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and opened 5-0 in 2021, including notable wins 26-17 over then-No. 21 Utah (ending a 9-game losing streak in "The Holy War") and 27-17 over then-No. 21 Arizona St. However, the Cougars come to Pullman off back-to-back losses, 26-17 at home to Boise St and 38-24 at Baylor. Washington St  played just four games in 2020's COVID season, winning its opener and then going 0-3 SU and ATS, while allowing 42.0 PPG. It was Nick Rolovich's first season at Washington St, after he led his alma mater (Hawaii) to a 28-27 record in four years but with three Hawaii Bowl berths (2-1). Rolovich is a former QB, well-liked and the Cougars expected him to revive the program. Wash St opened just 1-3 but then beat Cal (21-16), Oregon St (31-24) and Stanford (34-31) to reach 4-3 (is on a 4-0 ATS streak0. However, as all have to know by now, he was dismissed from his head coaching position, along with four assistants (more later).

BYU averaged 43.5 PPG last season (down to 26.7 in 2021), while allowing only 15.3 PPG (up to 23.0 in 2021). QB Jaren Hall got hurt and Baylor Romney filled in nicely (80.0% with 5 TDs and zero INTs) but Hall is back and it's hard to blame him for the two losses, as he threw for 302 and 342 yards. He's completing 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and just 5 INTs, plus has run for 188 yards on 6.3 YPC. RB Allgeier is a tough inside runner and has 675 yards on 5.0 YPC and nine TDs. BYU always has receivers and this year's team in no different with Pau'u (31 catches / 4 TDs), Gunner Romney (26 catches / 17.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Nacua (20 catches on 22.62 YPC).

Washington St QB deLaura has completed 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs. He also has some 'sweet' WRs in Harris (44 catches / 5 TDs), Jackson (37 catches / 4 TDs) and Stribling (24 catches / 4 TDs). However, the Washington St running game averages just 111.7 YPG (114th) on 3.7 YPC with the lone notable contributor being Borghi (421 yards on 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs). The Cougars are scoring 25.7 PPG and allowing 25.7 PPG.

Teams respond in one of two ways after a coaching change. They either rally and dig deep for a victory, or they fall flat on their face. Nick Rolovich was loved by his players but he took a public stance against being vaccinated for COVID-19, in spite of a state mandate that applies to public education workers. He's no longer a state employee. Do the players feel abandoned by Rolovich? Are they upset with the school? I guess we'll find out. BYU has played the tougher schedule and knows a loss here (off back-to-back losses) and the team's season would be in a severe downward spiral (plenty of motivation here for the Cougars). I'm a big fan of BYU head coach Kelani Sitake and right now, Washington St is basically coach-less. I'm laying the short price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Kansas St at 12:00 ET.

Chris Kleiman led Kansas St to an 8-5 season in his first year at Kansas St but fell to 4-6 last year. Kansas St opened the 2021 season 3-0, including solid wins over Stanford 24-7 at a neutral site) and 38-17 at Nevada. However, the Wildcats have opened Big 12 play 0-3, allowing 101 points (33.7 PPG) , in losing to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Iowa St. Texas Tech began with a 38-21 over Houston (neutral site) and was 3-0 when it got pounded 70-35 by Texas. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 23-20 win at West Va but then lost 52-31 at home to TCU, before beating Big 12 'punching bag' Kansas, 41-14. Head coach Matt Wells is in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. The Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons but this year's team is 5-2.

Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson is 44 of 64 for 526 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in two games since returning from a knee injury. For him to be effective, he needs balance and the running has shown promise (162.5 YPG ranks 69th), with RB Deuce Vaughn rushing for 543 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC and 5 TDs (he's also the team's leading receiver with 23 catches, adding two more TDs). The defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (60th) on 355.2 YPG (52nd), despite struggling against big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders average 168.6 YPG on the ground (63rd) with Thompson (314 yards on 5.0 YPC and 6 TDs) plus Brooks (284 yards on 8.1 YPC with 4 TDs). QB Tyler Shough averaged 218 passing yards per game before breaking his collarbone in the Sept 25 loss to Texas but backup Henry Colombi has stepped right in, averaging 264.5 YPG over the past four games. The Texas Tech defense is allowing 31.4 PPG (102nd) on 386.4 YPG (75th).

Kansas St is on a three-game slide but note Oklahoma St and Oklahoma are both unbeaten, while Iowa St was ranked No. 7 in the preseason (pretty tough three-game stretch). For one, Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is not buying the fact that Kansas State is struggling. "K-State has beat us (five) years in a row," Wells said. "They're tough; they're physical. I have a lot of respect for Chris Kleiman. I think Skylar Thompson is gritty and tough. He has a lot of moxie. Deuce Vaughn is one of the best in the country, and they've got some guys in the special teams that keep you up at night."

Great situation for Kansas St to get back in the win column after a rough three-game stretch. Kansas St has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Texas Tech since 2011. What changes here? Nothing.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on UCF at 7:00 ET.

Ryan Silverfield was hired by Mike Norvell as an assistant at Memphis to begin the 2016 season. He was elevated to assistant head coach in 2019, and was named interim head coach when Norvell left to take the head coach position at Florida State. he promoted to head coach on December 13 and debuted in his first college game as head coach against Penn State in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic (lost 53-39). He led the Tigers to an 8-3 season in 2020 (first as a head coach), including a 25-10 win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, which marked Memphis' 7th straight bowl appearance.

UCF joined Division I FBS in 1996 but the Knights were just 46-44 after eight seasons. George O'Leary took over in 2004 and the school went 0-11 but posted a winning record in SEVEN of the next 10 seasons, winning 10 games in 2007 and 2012, 11 in 2010 and 12 in 2013 (12-1 season left them No. 10 in the final AP poll). Things fell apart in 2015, as the team went 0-12 (O'Leary was fired after opening 0-8). "To the rescue" came Scott Frost, who in his second season (2017), went 13-0 as UCF finished No. 6 in the final AP poll, Frost used that season as a springboard to take the Nebraska job (How's that worked out Scott?). Josh Heupel took over and led UCF to a 12-2 season in 2018 and 10-3 in 2019, before falling to 6-4 in 2020. Heupel has moved on to Tennessee and taking over is Gus Malzahn, who was fired after last season by Auburn after eight years at the school.

Memphis has been all over the map as far as its game-to-game consistency has been concerned this season. The Tigers opened the year with three straight victories, but then lost to UTSA, Temple and Tulsa over the following three weeks. Memphis improved to 4-3 with a win over Navy, which is just 1-5 but its lone win has come over UCF. QB Henigan has completed 60.8% for 1,253 yards with 16 TDs and four INTs. RB Thomas has 642 yards rushing (6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) plus Henigan's top-two targets are WR Austin (50 catches / 17.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and TE Dykes (27 catches / 16.3 YPC / 5 TDs). The offense averages 35.9 PPG (23rd) but allows 30.4 PPG (96th) on 426.6 YPG (100th).

Gus Malzahn's team has been bombarded with injuries in the early going but this guy is a quality coach and I don't expect last week's 56-21 loss at now-No. 2 Cincinnati to keep this team down. QB Dillon Gabriel is sidelined by an injury and is missed but freshman Mikey Keene is capable. RBs Richardson (317 yards / 6.1 YPC / one TD) and Bowser (295 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) lead a strong running game averaging 204.2 YPG (129th). Like Memphis, the UCF defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 32.2 PPG (107th0. I'm a fan of Malzahn. During his eight seasons at Auburn, he was 68-35, including THREE wins over Alabama plus made a trip to the 2013 national championship game where the Tigers lost 34-31 to FSU when the Seminoles scored with 13 seconds 

Neither team is going to beat you with its defense, but the Tigers' inconsistencies from one week to the next makes them untrustworthy here. What does matter is, series history and the home field advantage. UCF had won 13 straight over Memphis before losing 50-49 at Memphis in 2020. Methinks, UCF remembers. UCF was 21-0 SU at home from 2017-19, before going just 2-2 last season. Throw in UCF's 3-0 home record in 2021 and that's 26-2 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season. At this price, UCF is a HUGE play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET.

The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals!

Denver seems to have found a QB in Teddy Bridgewater, who is completing 70.2% for 1,514 yards with 10 TDs and four INTs (100.9 QB rating). Bridgewater threw the ball 49 times last Sunday for 334 yards and three INTs but his three INTs really hurt (note: he had just ONE interception after five games / 149 attempts). Bridgewater is dealing with a foot injury and he said the foot was stepped on during Sunday's game. Bridgewater was limited in practice on Tuesday but is expected to play. RBs Gordon (332 yards on 4.7 YPC and Williams (300 yards on 4.6 YPC) give Denver a solid running game, while WRs Sutton (33 catches / 14.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Patrick (25 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) plus TE Fant (30 catches / 9.1 YPC / 3 TDs) give Bridgewater good options. The defense has been excellent, ranking 4th in both points allowed (18.3 PPG) and total defense (314.7 YPG).

Cleveland's Baker Mayfield insisted his injured left shoulder wasn't a problem and that he planned on playing Thursday night. However, he has been ruled out and will miss his first game since taking over the Browns' starting QB role in Week 3 of the 2018 season. His 51 consecutive regular-season starts was the fourth-longest active streak among QBs (the Browns are hoping Mayfield will avoid season-ending surgery). What's more, the Browns lead the NFL with 168.5 YPG on the strength of RBs Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC / 5 TDs). However, Chubb will miss his second straight game due to a calf injury plus Hunt was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with his own calf injury sustained against the Cardinals. Hunt is also Cleveland's leading receiver (20 catches), leaving starter Case Keenum (more in a bit) with TE Njoku (15 catches / 17.7 YPC / 1 TD) as his top target. The Cleveland defense allows just 307.7 YPG) to rank 2nd but the Browns are allowing 25.2 PPG (22nd)! It sure hasn't helped that the Browns have forced just three takeaways, ranking 29th.

Case Keenum has made 62 NFL starts and owns a 75-47 TD/INT ratio but has gone 27-35 in those starts. Note that includes an 11-3 mark in 2017 with the Vikings, otherwise his record as a starter falls to 16-32 (.333). I had a big play on the Browns last Sunday and at first blush, hesitated playing against them here. However, not only is Mayfield out but so are BOTH Chubb and Hunt. It's a 'bridge too far to back Cleveland here.

Going back to the 1991 season, the Broncos have beaten the Browns in 12 of the last 13 meetings plus Denver has covered in five of its last as a non-division road underdog. Interestingly, the Browns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Thursday night contests. Do either of these ATS stats really matter?! Well, I'll argue that they certainly don't hurt! Both teams play in a tough, competitive divisions and the loser here will see its season slipping away. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET.

Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020.

Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season).

The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs).

Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd).

On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets.

QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.

Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?).

Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG.

The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th.

I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 9* Featured Sunday O/U is on LV/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

Las Vegas opened the season with three straight victories, beating the Ravens 33-27 in overtime, the Steelers 26-17 and the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime as well. However, the Raiders then lost a Monday Nighter 28-14 at the LA Chargers, before last week's 20-9 home loss to the Bears. The Raiders travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos, who have had a similar start to the season. The Broncos also won their first three games, beating the Giants 27-13, the Jaguars 23-13, and the Jets 26-0. However, Denver has struggled the last two weeks, falling 23-7 to the Ravens and 27-19 to the Steelers. Both teams are 3-2, ONE game behind the 4-1 Chargers and ONE game up on the Chiefs 9KC has won the AFC West FIVE straight years!).

QB David Carr got off to an excellent start but had his worst effort of the season at home vs the Bears, throwing for just 206 yards without a TD and one INT. RB Jacobs, off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, has not been healthy and last week had just 48 yards on 15 carries. The Raiders are averaging only 78.6 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th. Carr had been playing VERY well before last Sunday, averaging around 350 YPG with eight TDs and three INTs. TE Waller is tied for the team lead (28 catches) with WR Renfro, while WRs Ruggs 17 catches / 20.5 YPC) and Edwards (13 catches / 18.2 YPC) can 'stretch' the field. The Las Vegas defense is allowing 24.0 PPG.

Denver has found a QB in Teddy Bridgewater, who is completing 68.8% for 1,180 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 106.1). Gordon (282 yards / 4.7 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (247 yards / 4.2 YPC / one TD) give Denver a decent running game (118.6 YPG ranks 12th), while WRs Sutton (25 catches / 15.1 YPC) and Patrick (22 catches / 13.7 YPC) are solid at WR. TE Fant adds 21 receptions and two TDs The Denver defense is much improved, holding opponents to 15.2 PPG (2nd) on 292.4 YPG (3rd0.

For a number of reasons, I think this posted O/U number is just a little too low here. I think this is a great situational play. Of course, 'the elephant in the room' is the resignation of Jon Gruden (you just MAY have heard!). The Raiders are having to deal with the fall out of that fiasco and I think the organization will rally on the field this weekend. These types of situations either go one of two ways, as the team will rally, or fall flat on its face. I believe Derek Carr will step up here, off not just one, but two subpar performances. He has passed for a total of 402 yards in the last two weeks, 33 yards fewer than he had in the season opener. The Broncos are in a similar slide after starting the year with three wins. They, too, have struggled to find consistency on offense, particularly on third downs where they have gone 5-for-26 over the past two games.

These teams combined to score 63 and 49 points in their two meetings last season and this mid-40s over/under sets up perfectly to go O-V-E-R! Finally, note that Las Vegas has seen the total go over in EIGHT of its last 11 off a straight-up and against-the-spread road loss after being held to 10 or fewer points as well.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET.

Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North.

Murray has completed 70 percent or better of his passes in his last four games, completing 75.2% on the season for 1,512 yards with 10 TDs and four INTs (113.0 QB rating). He's also a dangerous threat to run, with 110 yards on the ground, while adding three TDs. Edmonds (270 yards / 5.5 YPC) and Connor (201 yards on just 3.2 YPC but with five TDs) lead a running game averaging 128.0 YPG (8th). Murray is blessed with proven targets like DeAndre Hopkins (23 catches / 13.6 YPC / 4 TDs), Chris Kirk (21 catches / 13.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and A.J. Green (16 catches / 16.3 YPC / 2 TDs) plus rookie Rondale Moore (21 catches / 12.9 YPC / 1 TD). The Arizona D is allowing just 19.0 PPG (6th) and with the NFL's fourth-highest scoring offense (31.4 PPG), the Cards' point-differential of plus-12.4) trails only the Buffalo Bills ().

Mayfield is not the focus of the Cleveland offense, as Chubb (523 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs) and Hunt (295 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) lead the NFL's best rushing offense at 187.6 YPG. Hunt is also the team's leading receiver with 17 catches but WR Njoku is rounding into form with 14 catches on 18.6 YPC with five TDs. OBJ has played the last three weeks and has nine catches (13.8 YPC) with one TD. Mayfield threw for a season-high 321 yards in Cleveland's season-opening 33-29 loss at KC but while Cleveland won its next three games, Mayfield averaged only 204.7 YPG passing. He had his best game of the season last week in completing 23 of 32 for 305 yards with two TDS and no INTs but it came in a 47-42 loss. The Cleveland defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (11th) on an impressive 298.8 YPG (that's 4th-best).

Mayfield's best two games in 2021 have come in losses. That NEEDS to change and I love the way this one sets up for Cleveland this weekend. The Cardinals are the NFL's lone unbeaten team (4-1 ATS) and travel cross-country for this non-conference game, before returning home for a 'cream puff' game against the Texans. I think Arizona finally has its letdown here. Cleveland HAS to be motivated, after last week's 47-42 loss at the Chargers. It was an amazing loss, as the Browns scored 42 points, had 532 total yards and zero turnovers. In fact, Cleveland is the first team in NFL history (including the playoffs) to lose when having either 40 points and zero turnovers OR 40 points, 500 yards and zero turnovers.

The Browns have won five of their last six home games, Mayfield would LOVE to beat Murray mano a mano and as I mentioned above, the Browns have to be in a foul mood off that loss last week.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!'

After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold.

The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return.

No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos.

While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET.

The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke.

Mahomes has looked mortal so far but only by the impossible standards he's already established. Can we call it an 'off year' when he's completing 69.2% for 1,490 yards with 16 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 106.1). RB Edwards-Helaire had gotten off to a solid start (304 yards rushing on 4.7 YPC) but has been placed on IR. WR Hill (37 catches / 4 TDs) and TE Kelce (30 catches / 4 TDs) make for a dangerous duo but Hill is banged up and is listed as questionable. Then there is the KC defense, which has allowed 30-plus points in every game this season. The Chiefs rank last in scoring defense (32.6 PPG) and 31st (of 32 teams) in total defense (437.4 YPG).

The Washington defense played well last season, especially down the stretch, and was the key to them reaching the playoffs. However, Washington is allowing 31.0 PPG (31st) on 407.8 YPG (27th) through five games this season. QB Taylor Heinicke has had his moments this season (64.2% for 1,298 yards with eight TDs and five INTs) but recently, his storyline of going from taking college classes online to becoming an NFL starter is over. RB Gibson (313 yards / 4.0 YPC / 3 TDs) is OK but neither him nor the team's leading receiver (McLaurin), are 'special.' McLaurin has 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 3 TDs).

On an interesting note, Kansas City has gone "over" its projected season win total seven years straight coming into the 2021/22 campaign, so to keep that streak alive it'll now have to "run the table." Hard to imagine the Chiefs falling to 2-4 with a loss here but the Chiefs continue to "play down" to the level of their competition, as evidenced by the fact that they're just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs teams with losing records. More notably, going back to the middle part of the 2020 season, KC is a money-burning 2-11 ATS their last 'unlucky' 13 games, meaning it's an 85% "go-against" in this game. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET.

Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona.

Washington saw head coach Chris Petersen retire after the 2019 season, having gone 55-26 in six seasons (six bowls). Jimmy Lake took over (his first-ever head coaching gig) in 2020 and was 3-1 in a COVID-riddled season. Washington was expected to contend for the Pac 12 North title (some had them the favorite) but the Huskies opened with an embarrassing 13-7 home loss to Montana (FCS), then fell 31-10 at Michigan in Week 2. The Huskies then smashed Arkansas State 52-3 and beat California 31-24, before then falling to Oregon State 27-24 in their last outing before their bye.

UCLA's Thompson-Robinson is a talented dual threat at QB, passing for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He has added 242 rushing yards and four TDs, UCLA has a strong running game, averaging 224.5 YPG (18th), led by RBs Charbonnet (566 yards / 6.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and Brown (442 yards / 6.3 YPC / 4 TDs). The defense is nothing special, allowing 26.5 PPG (75th) on 401.0 YPG (83rd).

Washington QB Morris is average, throwing for 1,262 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. The running game offers little help, averaging 116.6 YPG (105th), led by McGrew (just 188 yards but averaging 4.9 YPC and 6 TDs). The Washington offense averages a modest 24.8 PPG (92nd) but the defense is strong, allowing 19.6 PPG (29th) on 326.8 YPG (35th).

The Pac-12 North leader is 2-1 Oregon St, so the 1-1 Huskies are far from 'done,' with seven conference games remaining. Off a bye week (note: UCLA is on a 7-2 ATS run off a bye), a win here is almost a MUST! Washington's last-second, 27-24 loss at Oregon State back on Oct 2 still 'stings!'. UCLA has gone 2-0 on the road in 2021, although one win came at Arizona, which has lost 17 in a row? However, I will not ignore the fact that entering this season, the Bruins were just 5-21 SU on the road since 2016! In that same time frame, Washington is 28-6 SU in Husky Stadium. A SU win here virtually guarantees an ATS win. Take Washington.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET.

Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that!

Danny Gonzales took over at New Mexico in 2020 and because of COVID missed spring practice and then the MWC originally decided not to play in 2020. When the league did decide to return, the New Mexico governor decided to ban athletics, so the Lobos never played a single game in New Mexico. The team started 0-5 but did win its final two games, 17-16 over Wyoming (+18) and 49-39 over Fresno St (+12). 17 starters returned for 2021 and the Lobos opened with home wins over Houston Baptist and New Mexico St. However, they've followed with three straight losses, as CSU comes to town for the school's Homecoming game. 

Rams QB Centeio has thrown for 1,039 yards with five TDs and just one INT plus has run for 203 yards. Bailey (260 yards) and Vivens (232 yards) join Centeio with over 200 yards, as CSU averages 170.8 YPG on the ground. However, the Rams are averaging a modest 22.4 PPG (107th). The good news is that the defense is allowing only 22.0 PPG (23rd) on 328.8 YPG (36th).

Trey Wilson is the Lobos starter at QB, passing for 1,058 yards with seven TDs and four INTs. He's got a pair of solid RBs in Dumas (284 yards on 5.0 YPC) and Cole (3231 yards on 3.6 YPC) but the offense is averaging only 15.2 PPG (128th) on 282.7 YPG (125th). The defense is allowing 27.5 PPG (84th).

OK, Colorado St has won 10 straight over New Mexico (8-2 ATS) but the Rams had trouble finishing off drives against San Jose St (settled for SIX field goals) plus CSU's best RB (Bailey) is questionable for this game. The Rams take the field Saturday night for the first of three road games in a four-game stretch and it's HARD to ignore that CSU is just 4-12 SU in its last 16 road games. Yes, the Rams may win (making it 11 straight over New Mexico) but it will NOT be a 'walk in the park." I just think this is too many points for this Colorado State team to be giving up on the road to a 'hungry' New Mexico side looking form its first ATS win of 2021, after an 0-6 start. I'm expecting a very tight battle until the final whistle. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured Saturday O/U is on Toledo/Central Michigan Over at 3:30 ET

Toledo and Central Michigan are both 3-3 (1-1 in the MAC), as both teams meet Saturday in Mount Pleasant hungry for a win. Toledo smashed Norfolk in its opener 49-10, but then it suffered back-to-back losses, falling 32-29 at Notre Dame (excellent effort) and then 22-6 to Colorado State. The Rockets then bounced-back with victories over Ball State and UMass, before last week's 22-20 loss to NIU (a 'killer,' as the Huskies kicked the game-winning FG with 26 seconds remaining). CMU lost 34-24 to Missouri in its opener, before hammering Robert Morris 45-0. The Chips then lost to LSU 49-21, beat FIU 31-27 and lost 28-7 to Miami Ohio. Last Saturday's 30-27 win over Ohio came with CMU scoring the game's final 10 points.

Bradley and Finn have both been used at the QB position by Toledo (combined 7-1 TD/INT ratio) but it was Finn who passed for two TDs last week. Fin is by far the better runner, gaining 281 yards on 7.0 YPC with four TDs. RB Koback ran for 1,187 yards last year with 14 TDs (includes two TD catches) and has 455 yards on 5.2 YPC with five TDs this season. CMU has also used two QBS in Sirmon and Richardson but it's Richardson who has thrown for 859 yards the last three games with six TDs and two INTs.

Toledo averages 28.5 PPG and CMU 28.0 PPG but Toledo owns the much better defense, holding opponents to 17.5 PPG to CMU allowing 27.5 PPG. Toledo has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two MAC-West schools and I expect the Rockets to get a MUCH-needed win off last week's crushing loss to West-leader Northern Illinois (2-0). However, shutting down CMU won't be easy with Richardson playing very well (see above) and RB Nichols (591 yards on 5.1 YPC) adding excellent balance to the CMU attack.

This game has "Shootout" written all over it. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET.

4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game.

Pitt comes to town off a satisfying 52-21 win over Georgia Tech. QB Kenny Pickett is having an OUTSTANDING season, having completed 72% of his passes for 1,731 yards with 19 TDs and one INT. interceptions. Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis each have 200-plus rushing yards for a running game that's averaging 169.0 YPG on the ground. WR Addison has 29 catches, averaging 18.1 YPC and his nine TD grabs are tied for 1st among FBS players. Pittsburgh is averaging 52.4 PPG and has scored at least 41 points in all five of its games, which is the longest stretch in program history. The defense is allowing 22.6 PPG (49th), which 'works well' when the offense is averaging 50-plus points.

Virginia Tech is led by QB Braxton Burmeister, who is a true double threat. He has completed 58.8% of his passes for 930 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Burmeister also leads the team in rushing with 193 yards and has added two rushing TDs. As has been typical over the years, the Hokies have been strong defensively this season, allowing an average of just 18.6 PPG (24th).

Getting the job done on the road in Blacksburg is a lot easier said than done, despite Pickett being an amazing talent. It's hard to imagine Pitt "looking past" the Hokies on Saturday, but with home games upcoming against Clemson and Miami next, the possibility definitely exists. The last time these longtime rivals were both unbeaten in conference play when they met came back on Nov.2, 2002, when they were both 3-0 in the Big East. I'm going to grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.

Michigan State is coming off a 31-13 win at Rutgers. The offense has been sparked throughout the season by freshman RB Kenneth Walker III, who leads the nation in rushing with 913 yards (7.1 YPC) and nine TDs. QB Peyton Thorne has provided more than just a little stability, completing 62.4% for 1,575 yards with 14 TDs to two INTs. The offense is averaging 36.7 PPG (27th) with excellent balance, passing for 26.9 YPG and rushing for 219.2 YPG. The defense allows just 19.3 PPG (27) but there may be a concern in the fact that the stop-unit is also allowing 420.4 YPG (94th!).

Michael Penix Jr suffered a separated AC joint in his throwing shoulder during Indiana's 24-0 loss at Penn State on Oct 2 and is not likely to play in this one. Jack Tuttle, who went 1-1 as a starter last season and has passed for 564 yards and 3 TDs in three seasons at Indiana, will likely play. Honestly, the Hoosiers may be better off without Penix in the short term. The running game has shown little, averaging 127.2 PPG (100th) and the offense is scoring a modest 23.8 PPG (99th). The defense checks in allowing 28.2 PPG (90th).

So why take the Hoosiers? MSU has had a very favorable schedule so far, getting wins against four underachievers in 2021 like Northwestern, Miami-Fl, Nebraska and Rutgers. The team is on the road for the second straight week with a bye on tap and then it's the team's "Game of the Year" at home vs Michigan on Oct 30. Naturally, the last thing MSU wants is to be coming off a loss heading into the Michigan game but I believe the Spartans are vulnerable here. Indiana is a MUCH better team than it's shown and has played the more difficult schedule. Michigan State has beaten Indiana in 10 of the past 12 meetings but lost at home 24-0 to Indiana last season. 17 starters are back from that Indiana team and the Hoosiers are coming off a bye week. This a HUGE game for Indiana's season and it's Homecoming! I'm telling you, the Michigan St defense can be had! This home dog may just 'bark' VERY loudly on Saturday. Take the points. 

 
Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET.

Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games.

To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10.

Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th).

Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET.

Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise.

The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss.

SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th).

Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category).

I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend.

This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina.

Brady leads the NFL with 1,767 passing yards, completing 66.2% with 15 TDs and just two INTs for a QB rating of 108.5. Speaking of interceptions, he also has an ongoing franchise record of 203 consecutive passes without one. "What he does is crazy, especially at his age and with the level of play that he has been able to sustain for such a long time," Buccaneers WR Mike Evans told reporters. "It's unreal and I don't think we will ever see it again." Evans has 29 receptions (4 TDs), tying him with Godwin for most catches. Antonio Brown has 20 catches and three TDs, while TE Gronk has 16 catches and four TDs. However, Gronk has missed the last two games and along with Godwin, is questionable for this game. Brady, who has a thumb injury (but he's Superman, right?), is having a great season despite getting little help from a running game that is averaging only 82.0 YPG (26th). The Tampa Bay defense was great during last season's Super Bowl run but this year's unit ranks 1st in allowing 45.8 YPG rushing but 32nd in yards allowed passing (314.4).

The Eagles have decided that Jalen Hurts is their No. 1 QB and he' showing promise. He's completing 64.8%, averaging 324.2 YPG plus has seven TDs and three INTs. He's also a dangerous runner, gaining 256 yards on 6.0 YPC with three TDs. RB Sanders is solid, with 214 yards on 4.5 YPC. Heisman-winner Smith has 325 catches but is averaging a less-than-impressive 12.5 YPC. Watkins has 13 catches and an excellent 20.5 YPC. Philly has two good TEs in Goedert (15 catches) and Ertz (14), which is good news with Goedert currently sidelined. The defense is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) but matches up well here vs Brady, allowing just 194.8 YPG through the air, third-best in the NFL.

Brady expressed concern about the short preparation time to dissect a Philadelphia defense that features three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay and two stellar defensive linemen in six-time Pro Bowler Fletcher Cox and breakout star Javon Hargrave. Slay intercepted two passes and CB Steven Nelson picked off one as Philadelphia recovered from a 15-3 deficit late in the second quarter to win 21-18.

Philadelphia's 21-18 road victory over Carolina essentially saved its season last weekend. Philadelphia's defense looked great in that one, holding Sam Darnold's offense to just 177 passing yards, to go along with three interceptions (Eagles also posted three sacks). Tampa Bay may be a little tired and note that the Bucs are 0-2 ATS on the road this season, losing by 10-points at the Rams and 'escaping' with a two-point win in New England, when the Pats' potential game-winning FG hit the left goal post.  Note that since Brady's come on board, the Bucs are also just 4-6 ATS as a road favorite with a plus-4.3 spread differential. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!

Josh Allen just keeps getting better, completing 63.1% for 1.055 yards with 9 TDs and 2 INTs (also adds 129 yards rushing on 5.4 YPC with one TD). The running game improved this season, averaging 145.3 YPG (5th), with Singletary (259 yards on 5.3 YPC and a TD) and Moss (147 yards on 4.2 YPC with 3 TDs) both contributing. A trio of WRs give Allen plenty of options. Diggs has 26 catches and Beasley 25, while Sanders has become the team's best deep threat (16 catches averaging 16.8 YPC). Buffalo is averaging 33.5 PPG on 404.0 YPG (6th)

KC's offense takes a backseat to no one, matching Buffalo by averaging 33.5 PPG on 427.5 YPG (2nd). Patrick Mahomes hasn't had a drop-off, completing 72.3% for 1,219 yards with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. KC's running game is also improved (130.3 YPG on 5.1 YPC to rank 8th), as Edwards-Helaire has run for 291 yards on 5.0 YPC. WR Hill (30 catches / 15.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and TE Kelce (24 catches / 13.0 YPC / 3 TDs) are two of the NFL's VERY best plus the newly acquired Josh Gordon has been elevated to the active roster, Gordon was an All-Pro in 2013 with Cleveland but has not played since 2019 and has served six suspensions imposed by the NFL during his checkered career. Supposedly, Gordon looks fit and ready. A rebirth? He's in the perfect situation for just that.

The HUGE difference between the two teams heading into this game is DEFENSE! While the Bills rank 1st in points allowed (11.0 PPG) and total defense (216.8 YPG), KC ranks 31st in both points allowed (31.3 PPG) on 437.8 YPG). The Bills have also forced a league-best 11 takeaways and just became the first team to 'pitch' two shutouts in a season's first four games since Baltimore did so in 2000 (note: Ravens won the Super Bowl that year!)

OK, so why take KC? Note that Buffalo's quality of opponents is hardly makes up a "murderer's row." Pittsburgh is 0-3 since beating the Bills, Miami is 0-3 since winning a Week 1 game, Washington is 2-2 but BOTH wins have come on last-second 'miracles' and Houston is 0-3 since a Week 1 over 0-4 Jacksonville. KC's big second half last week at Philly could be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Chiefs. KC plays two straight on the road after this game (at Washington and Tennessee), making this game VERY important for a team that currently is behind all three of its AFC West rivals (KC has won the division each of the last FIVE seasons!). The Bills offer a great challenge and it's my belief the Chiefs 'answer the call!' Lay the short points and expect a comfortable cover.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* "Featured" Sunday O/U is on Cle/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.

A pair of 3-1 teams meet Sunday in Los Angeles, as the Browns take on the Chargers. Kevin Stefanski took over as Cleveland's head coach last season and led them to an 11-5 record, the team's first winning record since 2007 (ending a 12-year drought of sub-.500 seasons). More importantly, the Browns made the postseason, ending a 17-year drought. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers in the wild card round, before falling to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Cleveland opened 2021 with a hard-luck 33-29 loss at KC but has won three in a row since to put them in a three-way tie atop the AFC North with Baltimore and Cincinnati (all 3-1).

The Chargers dumped head coach Anthony Lynn after last season (12-20 in 2109 and 2020) and hired Brandon Staley. He's made a BIG difference already, as the Chargers are also off to a 3-1 (currently are in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Raiders). Los Angeles won 20-16 at Washington in Week 1, before falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!). However, the Chargers have been 'cooking' with an impressive 30-24 victory at KC in Week 3 and then a 28-14 Week 4 MNF win at home against the previously unbeaten Raiders!

Both teams are 'hungry' for a win, playing in highly competitive divisions. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield really stepped up last season, completing 62.8% for 3,356 yards He's completing 65.5% this season for 935 yards, which is an average of 233.8 YPG (last year's average was 222.7 YPG). However, he had a 26-8 TD-to-INT ratio last season but it's just 2-2 after four games in 2021. The offense has relied more on the one-two RB duo of Chubb (362 yards on 5.2 YPC) and Hunt (234 yards on 5.4 YPC). Cleveland enters No. 1 in the NFL by averaging 177.0 YPG. 'Flying under the radar' is the Cleveland D, allowing 16.8 PPG (4th) on 250.3 YPG (2nd).

Justin Herbert of LA outplayed Derek Carr Monday night, completing 25 of 38 for 222 yards with three TDs and no INTs. He's completing 68.9% on the season for 1,178 yards with nine TDs and three INTs. RB Ekeler ran for 117 yards (one TD) plus caught a TD pass. This all-purpose back has run for 283 yards on 5.7 YPC with four TDs plus has 18 receptions and one TD. WRs Allen (28) and Williams (23) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (12 catches) is solid. The LA defense is not quite in Cleveland's class but is allowing just 18.5 PPG (7th) on 332.0 YPG (9th).

So why go over? The Browns are on the road for a second straight week and are coming off their worst offensive effort of the season, a 14-7 win at Minnesota. Cleveland gained a season-low 327 yards vs the Vikings, after averaging 410.0 YPG while scoring 28.7 PPG its first three games! Mayfield is way OVERDUE for a big game and up against Herbert (who is "the REAL deal"), should rise to the challenge. Could we see two "gun-slingers" go toe-to-toe in this one? My bet says, "Yes we can!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET,

My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT.

The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. 

The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th).

The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets  little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th).

The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. 

The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss.

Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th).

Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry.

Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET.

A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS.

USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. 

Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th.

USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st).

Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET.

Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky.

How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St.

QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG!

Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries!

Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET.

2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17.

Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1.

The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd).

Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd).

Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us."

After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win.

This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday.

Good luck...Larry

The third play of my STP is an 8* on Southern Miss at 7:00 ET.

Remember the days when Southern Miss went to 11 bowls from 1997-2008, winning SEVEN? More recently, the Golden Eagles went 12-0 in 2011 but then 0-12 in 2012, followed by 1-11 and 3-9 seasons. From 2015 through 2019 the school went 'bowling' FOUR times but then went 3-7 in 2021. That's the situation Will Hall stepped into in 2021, getting his first head coaching gig. Southern Miss has opened 1-4 this season, with the lone win coming 37-0 over Grambling.

Southern Miss welcomes UTEP to Hattiesburg on Saturday and the Miners check in at a surprising 4-1. I say surprising for a reason, this marks head coach Dana Dimel's fourth season at El Paso and the Miners were 1-11, 1-11 and 3-5 in his first three. I'm not sure that UTEP is NOT doing it with mirrors. The fact that it's 3-0 at home helps, as UTEP's 30-3 win at New Mexico St back on Aug 28 was a shocker. I say that because the Miners entered that road contest just 3-26 on the road since the start of the 2016 season.

Southern Miss showed a lot of fight in last week's 24-19 loss at Rice, as freshman QB Jack Lange took over and threw for 304 yards and a TD (his three picks were the difference-maker). However, a check of the history book reveals that Southern Miss has outgained UTEP in ALL 10 meetings between the schools as C-USA members and by an average of almost 200 YPG (188 to be exact!). UTEP is a 'phony' 4-1 team and Southern Miss exposes just that in this contest.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on San Jose St at 3:30 ET.

San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans then bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. Last weekend against New Mexico State, SJSU earned a 37-31 win, led by 193 yards passing and three TDs from QB Nick Nash, while RB Tyler Nevens had 22 carries for 115 yards and a TD.

Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and has opened 1-3 this season. The Rams began with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that!

CSU had last Saturday off but I don't think it will help much here against a San Jose St team that is NOT as good as it was last season but is significantly better than this Colorado St team. The Spartans are a small underdog but this will NOT be called an upset! If Vandy can win here (ending an 11-game slide), why not SJSU!

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd play of my STP is an 8* on UMass at 3:30 ET.

Connecticut was 1-11 in 2018 and 2-10 in 2019, before deciding not to play in 2020. The Huskies returned for 2021 and have opened 0-6 SU but one could argue they are improving, UConn opened 0-3 ATS but has gone 3-0 ATS its last three games, including a 24-22 loss to Wyoming (as a 31.5-point dog) and 30-28 to Vandy (as a 14.5-point dog).

UMass was off a 1-11 season in 2019 and initially decided not to play in 2020. The school changed its mind but shouldn't have bothered, as the Minutemen went 0-4 losing by scores of 41-0, 51-10, 24-2 and 45.0. Like UConn, UMass has yet to win in 2021, going 0-5. However, while UConn has been competitive its last two, UMass's closest margin of defeat has been a 14-point loss to Eastern Michigan.

UConn looks like the slightly better team but I just can't trust them laying points on the road. UConn scores just 16.5 PPG (125th), while allowing 39.7 PPG (125th). It's  much the same with UMass, which is averaging 14.6 PPG (128th) and allowing 47.2 PPG (130th). I HAVE to go with the home team here, against a UConn team that's 3-23 SU on the road going back to the start of 2016 an is laying points in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6.

The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good!

That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense.

A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG.

Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. 

Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9.

Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. 

Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. 

It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET.

The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs.

Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second  OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory.

QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games.

QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021.

The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.

Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'

Brady passed for 379 yards and four TD passes when the Bucs eked out a 31-29 win over the Cowboys in Week 1. Tampa Bay then pulled away for a 48-25 victory over the Falcons in Week 2, as Brady threw for 270 yards and FIVE touchdowns! Yes, he passed for 432 yards in Week 3 at the Rams but he had just one TD pass and facing a 'real defense,' the Bucs offense looked pretty ordinary. Tampa Bay has a non-existent running game, averaging 56.3 YPG (3.5 YPC) to rank 31st of 32 teams. The defense that completely shut down Mahomes and KC in the Super Bowl, despite returning all 11 starters, has looked VERY ordinary. I'm being kind here, as the Bucs rank both 27th in points allowed (29.3 PPG) and total defense (402.0 YPG).

The Pats lost at home 17-16 in Week 1 to the Dolphins, despite outplaying Miami in all aspects, New England rebounded with a 25-6 win on the road vs the Jets but so what? The Pats then got humbled (don't remind me!) at home last Sunday, losing 28-13 to the Saints. The Patriots turned to Cam Newton to replace Brady last season but Newton was then released in favor of rookie Mac Jones prior to the start of this regular season. Jones was fine in his first two starts, averaging 233.5 YPG passing and even though he had just one TD pass, he didn't throw an INT in 69 attempts. However, Jones and company took a step back in Week 3's home loss to the Saints. Jones finished with 270 yards passing and a TD but he also had three INTs!. Like Tampa Bay, New England's running game is poor, averaging 91.7 YPG (24th) on 3.9 TYPC. However, a Belichick-coached team can always play defense and the Pats are allowing just 17.0 PPG (5th) on 282.3 YPG (also 5th).

Motivation abounds for both sides in this one but I'm betting that the New England pass D, which is allowing just 159.7 YPG (2nd-best), gives the Pats a chance for the outright upset. The Pats are allowing just 57.8% completions and opposing QBs own a passer rating of 65.9, the second-lowest of any NFL team. This one comes right down to the wire. Grab the points, as the play is New England.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.

Ben Roethlisberger has 801 passing yards through Week 3 but has just three TDs and three INTs. He needed 58 attempts to throw for 318 yards vs the Bengals! The running game is a weak link, as Pittsburgh is averaging just 53.0 YPG to rank dead-last in the NFL. Alabama rookie RB Harris has run for just 123 yards on 3.1 YPC but has caught 20 passes! Big Ben does have three quality WRs in Claypool, Johnson and Smith-Schuster. The Pittsburgh D is about average so far, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 354.7 YPG (13th).

Green Bay and Rodgers have rebounded big time the last two weeks, beating Detroit 35-17 (MNF Week 2) and San Francisco 30-28 in SNF Week 3. Rodgers has bounced back with six TD passes and no INTs in 60 pass attempts, posting QB ratings of 145.6 and 113.2. RB Jones gained just NINE rushing yards in Week 1 but has 149 yards the last two weeks (2 TDs) plus eight catches for three TDs. WR Adams (25 catches) is among the best in the NFL. Green Bay's D is nothing special (I'm being kind), allowing 27.7 PPG (14th).

I had my SNF Magic play on Green Bay but this is a tough spot for them here. Pittsburgh is 1-2 and looking to bounce back from a listless 24-10 loss to Cincinnati last Sunday, one in which the Steelers had a 21-12 advantage in FDs and 312-268 advantage in yards. The Bengals, Browns and Ravens are all 2-1 in the AFC North and at 1-2, Pittsburgh can ill-afford a 1-3 start.

The Steelers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 tries and a road underdog (24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 when playing the role of underdog), so I'm taking the points. Upset Alert? Just maybe.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET.

Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET.

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday.

QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd).

The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus  added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!).

Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Car/Dal Under at 1:00 ET.

This Week 4 matchup between the Panthers and Cowboys features a contest between two FIRST-PLACE teams. The 3-0 Panthers sit atop the NFC South (take that TB 12), while the 2-1 Cowboys lead the NFC 'Least,' as its only winning team. BOTH are a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Carolina Panthers are surely one of the NFL's biggest surprises, while the Cowboys lone loss came at Tampa Bay (on a FG in the closing second). Dallas followed that tough loss with back-to-back wins, receiving kudos after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Panthers have won their first three games for the first time since 2015, when they played in the Super Bowl behind MVP Cam Newton. Carolina is led this season by NY Jet castoff Sam Darnold, who is completing 68.2% for 888 yards with three TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 99.0). He entered this season with a 45-39 TD-to-INT ratio and his career QB rating is 80.2. Darnold has been a real bright spot but look at the Carolina defense. It ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (191.0 YPG), passing yards allowed (146.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (245.0 YPFG), while ranking 2nd in points allowed (10.0 PPG).

"Dak is Back" for Dallas, completing 77.5% for 878 yards with six TDs and two INTs, after completing 21 of 26 for 238 yards with three TDs and no INTS last Monday night in a 41-21 win over the Eagles (his QB rating was 143.3 in that game!). He's got plenty of offensive 'weapons,' in WRs Lamb and Cooper plus TE Schultz (trio has a combined 51 catches and 5 TDs). RBs Elliott (199 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TDs) and RB Pollard (183 yards on 6.8 YPC and one TD) are both contributing. However, the Dallas defense is allowing 402.0 YPG.

Those Carolina defensive numbers are great and this is by far, the best defense Dallas has seen this year. The last thing Carolina wants to do is get into a shoot-out with Dallas and with do-everything RB McCaffrey sidelined, the Panthers are without their biggest and best offensive threat. Yes, the Dallas D is giving up a lot of yards (see above) but under new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, it's allowing a much better 23.0 PPG (13th), by forcing a league-best eight turnovers.

Carolina has played three straight unders to open the season and this number seems a little high to me. Expect Dak to struggle vs Carolina's defense and for Dan Quinn's defense to hold Carolina at bay, as he's very familiar with the Panthers from his days as Atlanta's head coach. Go Under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14).

The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th).

Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

The third play of my STP is an 8* on Mississippi State at 7:00 ET

Texas A&M had won NINE straight over Arkansas but head coach Jimbo Fisher's Aggies are licking their wounds after being pushed around in a 20-10 loss to Arkansas last Saturday. A&M had opened 3-0 but the school's first loss dropped them to No. 15 in the AP poll. "We did not play well, consistently," Fisher said this week about the loss to the Razorbacks. "As I always try to say, it's doing ordinary things better, becoming more fundamentally sound in how we do things and becoming much more consistent." A&M is back home on Saturday and set to host 2-2 Mississippi St, led by head coach Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have played some tough competition already. They managed a 35-34 win over Louisiana Tech in its opener, by scoring the game's final 21 points. They then won at home 24-10 over NC State, before a tough 31-29 loss at Memphis. A 28-25 home loss to LSU last weekend has Miss St at 2-2.

A Mike Leach offense always centers around its QB and Will Rogers is filling the bill. He's completing 75.1% for 1,454 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. However, the running game adds just just 62.8 YPG (129th) on 3.3 YPC. On the A&M side, backup QB Zach Calzada took over for injured starter Haynes King (broken right leg) earlier this season and the sophomore signal caller struggled against the physical Arkansas defense, finishing with just 151 passing yards and an interception in the loss. One way for Fisher to protect Calzada is to run the football more effectively with RBs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane. The two combined to average 5.3 yards a carry against Arkansas. On the season, A&M is averaging 169.3 YPG (57th). Defense is A&M's strength though, as the Aggies are allowing only 9.3 PPG (9th) on 291.5 YPG (23rd).

The Bulldogs had a 29-14 FD edge last week vs LSU but gave up two long pass TDs, falling behind 21-3 (lost by just a FG). The schools have met 14 times and while A&M has won two straight, the series is tied 7-7. Mississippi State has twice knocked off a ranked Texas A&M team in recent years, beating No. 16 Texas A&M in 2018 and the No. 7 Aggies in 2016, although both games were played in  Starkville.

A&M figures to bounce back from last week's loss but don't be too sure. I like the Bulldogs to keep this one competitive, keeping the score much closer than expected. Grab the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET.

Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.

UAB returned to FBS play in 2017 and entered this season with a 34-16 record. The Blazers opened with an easy win over Jacksonville St (neutral field) but then got crushed at Georgia, 56-7. However, the team has won back-to-back road games since, at North Texas and Tulane. UAB gets its first home game of the season in brand new Protective Stadium (more in a bit).

Liberty is led by QB QB Malik Willis. He passed for 2,260 yards (20-6 ratio) plus ran for 944 yards (6.7 YPC / 14 TDs) last year and has opened well again this year, with 818 passing yards (10-0 ratio) plus 274 rushing yards (5.4 YPC with 4 TDs). Ironically, it was his fumble with under four minutes to go, which led to St0yracuse's game-winning FG. The Flames rush for 184.0 YPG (48th) and their defense is STRONG, allowing 15.3 PPG (14th) on 251.8 YPG 98th).

Tyler Johnston Opened as the Blazers' starting QB but threw three INTs in the blowout loss to Georgia. Dylan Hopkins replaced him during the North Texas win, completing 6 of 7 for 202 yards and three TDs. Hopkins started for just the sixth time in his career last Saturday at Tulane, completing 18-for-26 for 240 yards and three more TD passes. UAB has a pair of solid RBs in McBride (282 yards / 5.4 YPC) and Brown (221 yards / 4.4 YPC). UAB's defense is better than average, allowing 20.8 PPG (51st) on 326.5 YPG (48th).

However, the bottom line is this. Liberty's loss at Syracuse was a real downer and the Flames have to shake that off here, against a very good UAB team that is playing its first home game of the season in the school's brand new Protective Stadium.  All UAB has done in home games since its 2017 'rebirth' is go 21-1 SU and 15-5-2 ATS.

Liberty's flame is snuffed out here, as the Blazers win comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

The second play of my STP is an 8* on Washington State a t ET.

A couple of 1-3 teams collide here with Cal coming in as a solid home favorite over Washington St (more in a bit). Both teams have struggled defensively, with the Cougars allowing 29.8 PPG (99th) and Cal allowing 29.3 PPG (93rd). The Washington St defense allows 415.0 YPG (94th) and the Cal defense 417.8 YPG (96th)

Both teams saw potential Pac-12 victories slip through their grasp last weekend. Cal was down seven points in OT in the extra session and drove to the Washington two-yard line, where Damien Moore fumbled at the goal line, preventing the Golden Bears from potentially either tying the score with a PAT or going for the road win with a two-pointer. As for Washington St, the Cougars  held a 13-10 lead into the final five minutes at Utah before giving up two late scores in a 24-13 defeat.

The home team has won the last five meetings in the 102-year-old rivalry and Cal may be slightly the better team on paper but Cal is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite and more notably, 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Justin Wilcox. Give the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET.

Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie).

It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th).

The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and  Air Force (3-1 start).

Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13!

Good luck...Larry

The first play of my STP is an 8* on Texas Tech at 3:30 ET.

Texas Tech opened the season 3-0 but then allowed 70 points (on 639 yards) in a 70-35 loss at Texas last Saturday. Starting QB Tyler Slough (an Oregon transfer) broke his left collarbone last week and will be out for at least six week. Stepping in was Henri Colombi, who threw for 324 yards with TD throws of 40, 69 and 75 yards. Columbi will get his first start of 2021 in this contest and will surely be confident, after he made a start in 2020 at home against West Va last season, completing 22 of 28 for 169 yards with a TD pass, a TD run and no INTs in a 34-37 win. 

West Va won five straight in this series from 2014-2018 but Texas Tech has won and covered the last two. West Va has a vet QB in Doege (62.4% for 889 yards with a 6-4 ratio) and a quality RB in Brown (321 yards on 4.9 YPC with 5 TDs) and does come in having gone 7-0 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. West Va does have a HUGE defensive edge, allowing 16.8 PPG to Tech's 33.5 but last week's results, set up an interesting situation.

While Tech was blown out by Texas, West Va took highly-ranked Oklahoma to the wire in a 16-13 loss. The Sooners won the contest on a game-winning FG on the game's final play. The Sooners haven't come close to looking like a top-10 team and I believe are overrated. Meanwhile, despite losing by five TDs, Tech gained 520 yards on Texas. The Red Raiders are just 1-10 SU on the road since the start of the 2019 season but I'm expecting a let down by West Va off the Oklahoma game and WANT the points with Texas Tech.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye Opener is on Michigan (12:00 EST).

Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers have already lost TWICE, and fallen out of the top-25. Wisconsin is NOT alone. In fact, the list is pretty long of preseason top-25 teams no longer in the latest rankings (Sep 26). No. 7 Iowa St, No. 10 North Carolina, No. 14 Miami-Fl, No. 15 USC, No. 16 LSU, No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Washington, No. 21 Texas, No. 23 ULL, No. 24 Utah and No. 26 ASU, also join Wisconsin. That's a "baker's dozen" of 13 teams!

Meanwhile, coming off a 2-4 COVID-19 shortened season in which Michigan was just 2-4, many were surprised that Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh survived. In fact, he's done more than just survive, as his Wolverines have opened 4-0 and are currently ranked No. 14. How about this for a stat. Michigan has opened 4-0 (and has yet to be behind in any game so far), for the first time since 1973! Michigan gained 789 rushing yards in 2020's six games (131.5 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but has already run for 1,163 through its first four games of 2021, an average of 290.8 YPG on 6.3 YPC). RB Corum has 475 yards (6.9 YPC and 7 TDs) and fellow RB Haskins has 322 yards (5.3 YPC and 6 TDs). QB McNamara has thrown for a modest 534 yards and three TDs but has yet to be intercepted in 53 attempts. Michigan's D is allowing just 11.8 PPG (4th) on 303.3 YPG (32nd).

Wisconsin's 41-13 loss at Soldier Field last Saturday against Notre Dame was deceiving, as the Badgers led 13-10 in the early 4th quarter, before the Irish scored the game's final 31 points (one score came a 96-yard KO return and two more on INT returns). However, what's not deceiving is that in its two 'tests' in September, the Badgers have scored just THREE points in the 4th quarter of each game. Remember QB Graham Mertz completing 20 of 21 for 248 yards with 5 TDs in his first-ever start (Oct 27 of 2020)? Metz is unrecognizable these days, throwing FOUR interceptions against Notre Dame. The Wisconsin offense has scored just 23 points vs Penn St and Notre Dame and as noted, Michigan's D has been terrific. Wisconsin imploded in the fourth quarter last weekend, finishing just 1 of 14 overall on third downs while also posting a whopping five turnovers.

Wisconsin's D has been excellent, as Notre Dame's defense and special teams scored 21 of the 41 points last Saturday and is allowing just 210.3 YPG, ranking 2nd in the nation. However, Wisconsin will need to bring its "A game" vs Michigan and I don't see that happening against a rejuvenated Michigan team. Could this be the year Harbaugh finally beats Ohio St? I'm getting ahead of myself. Go Big Blue!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET.

Minnesota hired PJ Fleck off his excellent run at Western Michigan (remember the 'Row the Boat' team of 2017 that went 12-0 before losing in the Cotton Bowl?).In his second season with the gophers, Minnesota went 7-6 after a bowl win and then in 2019, went 11-2 with a bowl win that left them 10th in the final polls. 2020 was a tough year for all (3-4) and Minnesota has opened just 2-2 here in 2021. The Gophers visit Purdue, coming off the worst FBS over FBS upset since 2012 last week, losing 14-10 as a 31-point favorite to Bowling Green. Things CAN'T get worse from here, right?

Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and moved to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. Purdue takes a 3-1 record into this game, losing only 27-13 at now-No. 9 Notre Dame.

Tanner Morgan has played well at times for the Gophers the last few seasons but was just PUTRID vs Bowling Green, completing 5 of 13 for 59 yards with two INTs and a lost fumble. However, RB Treyson Potts, ran for 141 yards and has 474 yards on the season (4.9 YPC / five TDs). The defense has held its own, allowing 21.3 PPG (55th) on 272.8 YPG (14th). However, winning the defensive battle against Purdue won't be easy, as the Boilermakers are allowing 14.3 PPPG (8th) on 301.0 YPG (29th). QB Plummer has completed 69.5% for 840 yards with seven TDs and no INTs but Brohm benched him one series into the third quarter last week. Aidan O'Connell entered and later guided the team 94 yards on 10 plays to score the game's lone touchdown in the fourth quarter of an unimpressive 13-9 win over Illinois. O'Connell completed 6 of 8 passes for 89 yards on the game-winning drive, including a 14-yard TD pass with 5:44 left. Brohm has declined to name a starter for Saturday.

The Boilermakers are off to their best start since 2012 and are on the cusp of going 2-0 in league play for the first time since 2010. All this, despite losing their top-two running RBs to injuries along with their top receiver, David Bell (21 catches with three TDs), who was in concussion protocol against Illinois and his status here is up in the air. Getting back to that running game, Purdue is averaging 92.5 YPG on 2.9 YPC!

Here's the bottom line. I like Minnesota to bounce back off that humbling loss to Bowling Green and why not? After all, the Gophers have won SEVEN of the last eight against Purdue, including the last time the team met here at Purdue (2019), when Morgan completed 21 of 22 for 396 yards and four TDs (how's that for a confidence-builder). This seems like a GREAT spot to take Minnesota, as Purdue has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six Ben Ten games. Minnesota gets the outright win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET.

BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's  win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll.

Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st).

Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB Game of the Week is on Virginia at 7:30 ET.

Virginia and Miami are both 2-2 but this is the ACC opener for Miami, UVA has beaten William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14, while losing to ACC rivals North Carolina 59-39 (allowed 699 yards!) and 37-17 to Wake Forest (Demon Deacons are 4-0).  As for Miami, the 'Canes have lost 44-13 to Alabama at a neutral site and 38-17 to Mich St at home. Miami 'escaped; at home 25-23 over Appalachian St (on a FG with about two minutes left) and then routed Central Connecticut St 69-0 (should that even count?).

Bronco Mendenhall led BYU to 11 bowls in 11 seasons and after a 2-10 season in his first year at UVA, led the Cavs to three straight bowls before 2020's 5-5 finish. The ACC Coastal was considered wide-open in 2021 but the Cavs are pretty much out of it, after an 0-2 start. UVA has a very talented QB in Brennan Armstrong, who has thrown for 1,705 yards, 13 TDs and three INTs (UVA is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 403.5 YPG). However, the ground game is averaging only 114.8 YPG (110th) and the team doesn't have a RB with 100 yards on the season, after FOUR games.

Unlike UVA, Miami was ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but has joined 12 other preseason top-25 teams that are no longer ranked, before October. The 'Canes have a talented dual-threat QB in D'Eriq King. He has passed for 767 yards (3 TDs / 4 INTs) but has just 96 yards rushing. He has greatly underachieved, as Miami was able to score just 30 points (15.0 PPG) in games vs Alabama and Mich St. King missed Miami’s win over Central Connecticut State, an FCS program, last Saturday due to a shoulder injury he sustained during the Hurricanes’ loss Michigan State the previous weekend. He is among multiple starters who are questionable for UM’s ACC-opener versus Virginia on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium.

Second-year freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke started against Central Connecticut State while splitting reps with true freshman Jake Garcia. Van Dyke went 10 of 11 for 270 yards and three TDs in his first start at the collegiate level, while Garcia went 11 of 14 for 147 yards and two TDs, and had a 45-yard run in his first college game. “First we’re trying to see D’Eriq’s availability,” head coach Manny Diaz said when asked about UM’s quarterback situation versus the Cavaliers. “I mean he’s improving and feeling better every day and was able to move around a little bit [on Monday] so we’ll see where he’s at with that.”

King or no King, I want no part of Miami. I believe UVA behind QB Brennan Armstrong can give Miami's defense fits (it has allowed 41.0 PPG against Alabama and Mich St, while its offense has scored just 15.0 PPG against that duo). Miami is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games and  not counting last Saturday's game vs an FCS school. Miami's been a HUGE underachiever. How did Miami 'earn' a No. 14 preseason ranking? Upset alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET.

The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.

Jalen Hurts has played well at QB for the Eagles, completing 67.2% for 454 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in 58 attempts. He's also the team's leading rusher with 144 yards, averaging 8.5 YPC (he had 82 rushing yards and a TD on the ground vs San Francisco). Hurts has been the focal point so far for Philadelphia this season but he's overshadowed a really good defense, one which is conceding just 11.5 PPG (3rd) on 283.0 YPG (6th).

Hurts' counterpart is Dak Prescott, who will be playing his first home game since his gruesome ankle injury at AT&T Stadium last October. Prescott had a HUGE game vs Tampa Bay (403 passing yards with three TDs) but threw for a more modest 237 yards in the win over the Chargers. However, the Cowboys had to be thrilled to see their running game produced 198 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. However, the Dallas defense is a concern. Dallas allowed 29.6 PPG in 2020 and while it is allowing 24.0 PPG through two games of 2021, the Cowboys are allowing 419.5 YPG (29th of 32 teams).

Looking closer at the matchups, Philly's Hurts has to 'love' the idea of facing a Dallas pass D that is allowing 346.0 YPG through the air (32nd). Hurts has plenty of weapons that will be able to exploit a weak (and injured) Dallas defensive line. Add in the fact that the Philly offense has zero giveaways through two games, which is also a GREAT sign for Philly backers. Meanwhile, Dak will go up against a strong Philly defense (see above), that is allowing only 162.5 YPG passing (4th-best). This is the best defense that the Cowboys have seen this season.

Take the points but expect a SU Philadelphia which will make them the 1st-place Eagles by Tuesday morning.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8).

The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly.

San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game.

Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday.

The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite.

San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Sea/Min Under at 4:25 ET.

1-1 Seattle pulled away for a 28-16 win at Indianapolis in Week 1 but then blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at home last Sunday in a 33-30 OT loss to Tennessee. Minnesota is 0-2 but is just two plays away from being 2-0. The Vikings lost 27-24 in OT at Cincy in Week 1 and at Arizona last Sunday, missed a 37-yard FG on the game's final play.

The Vikings are at home for the first time in 2021 this Sunday against Seattle. QBs Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are both off to great starts with Wilson completing 74.1% for 597 yards with six TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 146.9 is No. 1). Cousins is completing 71.6% for 595 yards with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 112.9. The duo has combined to attempt 135 passes through the season's first two weeks and neither has thrown a SINGLE interception.

Considering Seattle's defense ranks 30th in allowing 434.0 YPG and Minnesota is allowing 420.0 YPG (28th), maybe this is a 'dead-nuts' Over! Then again, maybe the Over is not such an easy call. The Seahawks have won SIX straight regular-season games against the Vikings, including a 27-26 victory last year in Seattle on a 6-yard TD pass from Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf with six seconds remaining. In fact, I think we'll witness another tight battle here as well, but I also expect a lower final combined score.

The Vikings have played two consecutive games decided by a FG attempt on the game's final play, with the Vikings coming out on the 'wrong' side of the make and miss. An 0-3 start all but ends any playoff hopes Minnesota brought into the season and Seattle sure wants/needs to move to 2-1, as the other three teams in the NFC West have all opened 2-0. Seattle is at the 49ers next week and the is home to the Rams the following week.

Expect a competitive game and a final score that stays Under the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET.

The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.

Las Vegas QB Derek Carr is off to a terrific start, passing for 817 yards in the two wins with four TDs, just one INT and a QB rating of 104.1. Miami's Tua Tagovailoa threw for 207 yards (one TD / one INT) plus ran for a TD in the win over the Patriots but then left the Buffalo game after just four pass attempts due to an injury. It turns out that he has fractured ribs and Miami will play without him on Sunday. Jacoby Brissett replaced Tua in the Buffalo game and threw for 169 yards and an interception on 24 of 40 passing after Tua left. His performance came on short notice but with a week to prepare, I expect a much better performance from Brissett. In fact, I don't see a big drop-off from Tua to Brissett.

Raiders head coach Jon Gruden said RB Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is "very questionable" for Sunday's game. In 2020, Jacobs became the first Raiders RB since Marcus Allen in 1983-85 to post consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Without Jacobs, who missed the Steelers game, the Raiders are relying on Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber. Good luck with that. Drake has 13 carries for just 20 yards (1.5 YPC) and Barber has 13 carries for 32 yards (2.5 YPC). What's more, the Raiders started a pair of backup guards against Pittsburgh and then lost right tackle Alex Leatherwood to an oblique injury

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Does the fact that the Raiders have lost SEVEN of their past eight games against the Dolphins mean all that much? I'm not sure but it's surely not a positive for Las Vegas. The Raiders have now crisscrossed the country for their first three games and note that the Raiders have won each of their first two games SU as underdogs. Las Vegas finished last season losing ATS in its last FOUR tries as a favorite! Meanwhile, the Dolphins had covered SIX in a row as an underdog before last Sunday and are on a current 6-0 ATS run following a SU loss! Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Super 26 Rematch is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET.

This is not exactly a rematch of Super Bowl 26, when Washington bested Buffalo 37-24. Washington has opened with back-to-back home games, losing 20-16 to the LA Chargers and then beating the Giants 30-29 in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Most will remember that Washington got a "second chance" to kick the game-winning FG as time expired, when the Giants went offside on the first try (a miss). The second time was a charm!

Washington is on the road Sunday to face the Bills, who are off a 13-3 season in 2020 in which they made it all the way to the AFC championship game where they lost to the Chiefs. Buffalo led Pittsburgh 10-0 into the 4th quarter in Week 1 but allowed 17 points, losing 27-16 to the Steelers. However, Buffalo handed the Dolphins a 35-0 beatdown in Miami in Week 2. 

QB Taylor Heinicke had to come in early in Week 1's game, replacing an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he just wasn't able to get the job done. However, he completed 34 of 46 for 336 yards (two TDs / one INT) in the win over the Giants. RB Antonio Gibson has run for 159 yards on 4.8 YPC. Washington's defense led the NFL in allowing 18.5 PPG and also allowed the fewest YPG (281.9) last season. Expectations ran high for the team's D in 2021 (led by an imposing front-four) but so far, the unit has underachieved.

Josh Allen had a career season in 2020, completing 69.2% for 4,544 yards with 37 TDs with just 10 INTs (107.2 rating). However, while he threw 51 passes in Week 1, he led the Bills to just 16 points. In Buffalo's 35-0 domination at Miami in Week 2, he was more of a bystander (17 of 33 for 179 yards with two TDs and one INT), as Buffalo's D held the Dolphins to 216 total yards, 13 FDs and ZERO points. Buffalo welcomes Washington to town allowing 11.5 PPG on 234.0 YPG (both figures rank 2nd in 2021).

My feeling here is that Washington comes in under the radar. Ron Rivera's defense bent, but didn't break vs the Giants, who threw everything they had at their NFC East rivals. I'm a big Josh Allen fan but Old Dominion's Taylor Heinicke just may be MUCH better than anyone ever anticipated. Don't give up on Washington's D just yet plus note that Washington is on a 10-5-1 run as a road dog. Grab the TD or more.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET.

Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.

The Pats began Year 2 without Tom Brady with a 17-16 home loss against Miami in Miami. Rookie QB Mac Jones finished 29-for-39 with 281 yards and a TD in his NFL debut. The Patriots outgained the Dolphins by 134 yards, converted 11 of 16 third-down attempts and controlled the clock, 36:43-23:17, yet somehow, the Pats found a way to lose by ONE point. It was a different story in Week 2, as the Pats beat the Jets for the 11th straight time, 25-6. The Pats' D dominated the Jets offense (six points on 260 yards) led by rookie QB Zach Wilson, who was picked off FOUR times plus was sacked FOUR times. Mac Jones has thrown for a modest 467 yards with one TD pass but he's completing 73.9% with zero INTs in 69 attempts. As for that New England defense, it's allowing just 11.5 PPG (3rd) on 297.5 YPG (5th)

The Saints are ranked 32nd in total offense (225.0 YPG and in passing yards (115.5 YPG( plus outstanding all-purpose RB Alvin Kamara has not come close to looking like the player of the last few seasons. With the Saints' first game being moved to Jacksonville (see above), this becomes their THIRD straight game away from home. The Patriots haven't seen a breakout performance from their young QB yet, but he's also made almost zero mistakes to this point, which absolutely points to his potential moving forward.

Expect New England to pull away for a comfortable win and COVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET.

The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest.

"Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.

Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W."

Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51?

The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET.

FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams.

FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force.

It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs.

In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season.

Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET.

Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.

Western Kentucky has opened 1-1, beating UT-Martin 59-21, before losing a tough one 38-35 at Army. Head coach Tyson Helton is in just his third season at Bowling Green, going 9-4 with a bowl win in 2019 and 5-7 with a bowl loss in 2020. The Hilltoppers are led by QB Bailey Zappe, a four-year starter at Houston Baptist. Zappe has thrown for 859 yards on the season, with 10 TD passes against only two interceptions (he had a 15-1 ratio last season in four games). An issue for Western Ky moving forward may be the fact that the team has averaged just 75.5 YPG on the ground (3.4 YPC).

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has uncharacteristically (and admittedly) struggled to open the season. Penix returned healthy to start the season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 202 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and note that Indiana was 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix started at QB and 4-5 when other QBs started under center. Penix has a modest 448 passing yards, four TDs and his SIX interceptions are a Big Ten-high (note: he threw just four INTs in seven games last season).

This will no doubt be a big game for WKU (hosting a Power-5 school) and the Hilltoppers do come in off a "bye week," However, I wonder if the extra week off somehow negatively affects the early chemistry that Zappe has developed with his new teammates. Indiana jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Cincinnati last Saturday but turned the ball over four times and went just 3-of-6 in red zone chances. Overall, the Hoosiers have turned the ball over SEVEN times in three games, with ALL seven turnovers coming in its two losses to powerhouses Cincinnati and Iowa.

I'm not ready to discount Indiana just yet. Look closer at the team's defensive numbers. The Hoosiers are allowing 28.7 PPG but are allowing only 297.3 YPG (34th). Sure, Indiana travels to No. 6 Penn St next Saturday but there is no way the Hoosiers will overlook Western Ky. A loss here pretty much dooms the Hoosiers' 2021 season. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET.

Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23).

Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. 

Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. 

This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year.  Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Clemson at 3:30 ET.

Nick Saban's success at Alabama is unmatched but in "second-place" is Clemson's Dabo Swinney. He has led Clemson to 10-plus wins in 10 consecutive seasons and the Tigers have made the 'Final 4' in the last six CFP, winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Clemson is the ONLY team in the country to make the playoff each of the last six years. Of course, Clemson began the season without the record-setting tandem of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, both of whom were selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the NFL draft last spring. That said, Clemson was still No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll. However, the Tigers were totally shut down in 10-3 to then-No. 5 Georgia (now No. 2) in the season opener. A 49-3 pasting of South Carolina St proved little but a close call last week in a 14-8 victory against upstart Georgia Tech, has 'tongues wagging!' 

Clemson fell to No. 6 in the AP poll after the Georgia loss (first time out of the top-4 since 2017) and after last Saturday's close call vs Ga Tech, Clemson is down to No. 9. The Tigers travel to Raleigh on Saturday to take on the Wolfpack of NC St, who have opened 2-1. However, the two NC St wins have come in home games over USF (45-0) and Furman (45-7), while the Wolfpack lost at Miss St on 9/11, scoring only 10 points vs a Miss St defense that has allowed  34 points (La Tech) and 31 points (Memphis) in its other two games.

These schools had played every year since 1971 until the series was suspended last season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. No. 9 Clemson hopes to continue its recent mastery over North Carolina State on Saturday. The Tigers have won 15 of the last 16 meetings against the Wolfpack, including EIGHT in a row.  Clemson is right around a 10-point road favorite in this one and that may seem high at first glance but note that Clemson has outscored NC State 96-17 in the previous two games (2018 and 2019). OK, DJ Uiagalelei is no Lawrence and has struggled. He's completing only 59.3 percent of his passes for 475 yards with one TD and two INTs. Filling in for Lawrence last season, Uiagalelei passed for 342 yards in his first career start against BC and then followed that by passing for 439 yards at Notre Dame (most passing yards ND has ever allowed to an opposing QB). He finished with 5 TDs and zero INTs in 117 attempts for the season. Where's that guy? Freshman RB Will Shipley has had an instant impact with 168 yards and four TDs the last two games. I'll get to the Clemson defense in a minute.

Devin Leary is completing 67.3% for 754 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while RB Knight has 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. The NC State defense is allowing just 10.3 PPG (5th) on 261.0 YPG (15th) but remember USF and Furman hardly represent quality opposition. The Clemson offense is averaging just 22.0 PPG on 322.7 YPG but that's only because the Tigers scored 49 points vs South Carolina St. Against Georgia and Ga Tech, the Tigers have scored just 17 points! Could this be the year NC State finally gets a "W?"

Not so fast. I'm NOT buying into the belief that the Clemson offense is this inept and I expect a long overdue "breakout" game from Uiagalelei and Co. plus there is NOTHING wrong with the Clemson D. Clemson is allowing 7.0 PPG (2nd) on 266.7 YPG (19th) and the Tigers have the only FBS defense in the nation that has not allowed an offensive TD this season. NC St was unsuccessful moving the ball (and scoring) against the defensively-challenged Miss St D and even here at home, I don't expect them to have much success against Clemson's elite defense.

I look for the Tigers to finally break out offensively and to dominate all phases of the game, as they done for the last 1 1/2-decades against the Wolfpack. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET.

Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3.

Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games.

Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th)

The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC).

Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET).

LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.

Mike Leach's first season at Starkville was 2020 and he made his SEC coaching debut by shocking defending champion LSU 44-34, as the Bulldogs accumulated an SEC record 632 yards of total offense. However, Miss St won just two more regular season games (over 0-9 Vandy and 5-5 Missouri), before winning the Armed Forces Bowl 28-26 over Tulsa to finish 4-7. Miss St scored 21 points in the last 12 minutes to win 35-34 to open the season against La tech (a comeback that marked the largest in school history) and then won 24-10 at home against NC State. However, the Bulldogs lost 31-29 at Memphis last Saturday (missed a 2-point try with 1 1/2-minutes left) and now hosts the revenge-minded Tigers, who have gone 25-4 SU against them since 1992.

This figures be a 'wild one' between two quality QBs, as LSU averages just 85.7 YPG on the ground (3.0 YPC) and Miss St 45.3 YPG (2.7 YPC). LSU's Johnson has thrown for 864 yards (three games) with 11 TDs and two INTs, while Miss State's Rogers has thrown for 1,093 yards with eight TDs and one INT, after completing a school-and SEC-record 50 passes against Memphis (he had 419 passing yards!).

Sure, LSU is playing with revenge but what do we really know about the Tigers? They are outplayed at UCLA plus what do home wins over McNeese St and Central Michigan mean? Mike Leach loves a good old-fashioned shootout! This is a VERY 'live' home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My Friday Night Lights Play is a 9* on Middle Tenn St at 6:30 ET.

Middle Tennessee State won its opener over Monmouth 50-15 but then fell 27-13 to UTSA this past weekend, after losing 35-14 to Virginia Tech previously. Charlotte opened with two home wins over Duke (31-28) and Gardner-Webb (38-10) but the 49ers are coming off their first loss of 2021, losing 20-9 at Georgia St (BTW...Ga St was my 10* Group of 5 Best of the Best!).

MTSU has nine returning starters on offense and 10 on defense. Both Hockman and Cunningham have played at QB but it looks like Cunningham will be taking over. Head coach Rick Stockstill pulled QB Hockman vs UTSA, after he started just 5-12 for 41 yards (0 TDs / 1 INT). The Blue Raiders trailed 27-0 and Chase Cunningham threw for 150 yards with two TDs and no INTs, as the MTSU offense didn't get going until he entered (too late). Charlotte jumped out to a 7-0 lead against Ga St but was outscored 20-2 the rest of the way, getting held to just 276 total yards.

Somehow Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win) but I'm not even a little impressed with the 49ers. I realize that MTSU is playing a THIRD straight road game but 3rd straight on the road but last year the Blue Raiders upset Troy while playing their 3rd straight road game. In fact, the Blue Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games and 4-1 ATS following a SU loss. Meanwhile, Charlotte is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss.

A loss pretty much derails MTSU's season but a "W' puts them on track for bowl eligibility. Charlotte's defense has been a major issue for the 49ers, who entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes get exposed here. Take the points but this is NOT an upset.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic 'Best Bet' is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

Kansas City hosted the Browns in Week 1 (a rematch of a postseason matchup last year) and trailed from the opening kick-off until Mahomes led two fourth-quarter TD drives to give KC a 33-29 non-covering win. The Ravens opened Monday night in Las Vegas, where they lost a 33-27 OT thriller to the Raiders.

Mahomes passed for 337 yards with three TD passes and no INTs and he's now a PERFECT 11-0 in September games with 35 passing TDs and zero interceptions (unreal!). However, the KC defense wasn't able to slow the Cleveland offense, as Mayfield passed for 321 yards plus allowed the Browns to run for 153 yards (5.9 YPC).

The Ravens' RB corps has been decimated by injury but led by Lamar Jackson's 86 yards (7.2 YPC), Baltimore ran for 189 yards (5.6 YPC). Jackson completed 19 of 30 for 235 yards with one TD and no INTs.

The Chiefs are the most talked about and analyzed team in the NFL. Even more so than the Bucs. Even the most casual NFL can tell you the strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters for Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-20 on this field last season and deserve to be favored. However, let's return to the teams' Week 1 games. The Chiefs looked shaky for three-quarters last week, while the Ravens looked pretty good darned for three-quarters. However, KC won when the Browns 'woke up and remembered they were the Browns. As for the Ravens, they led 17-10 after three quarters, but an uncharacteristic meltdown in the fourth quarter saw them give up 17 points, before then losing by six more in OT.

Bottom line? Kansas City likely shouldn't have won last week and Baltimore likely shouldn't have lost. A loss by Baltimore here drops them to 0-2 with the next two games on the road. Note that Baltimore has covered its last five regular season games as an underdog. Can you say SIX in a row.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The 1-0 Chargers welcome the 0-1 Cowboys to Los Angeles on Sunday, looking to start a season 2-0 for the first time since 2012. The Chargers escaped with a 20-16 road victory at Washington in Week 1, while the Cowboys lost a 31-29 heart-breaker at Tampa on Opening Night (on a last-second FG) and now look to avoid starting a season 0-2 for the first time since 2010. 

Dak Prescott was 42 of 58 for 403 yards, three touchdowns and an INT in the Cowboys Week 1 loss. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers last weekend. Neither QB got any help from his running game, as Dallas ran for only 60 on 3.3 YPC (Elliott had just 33 yards) and Los Angeles ran for 90 yards on 3.1 YPC (Ekeler led with 57 yards).

The big difference was on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas forced Tampa into four takeaways but still allowed 31 points on 431 yards. As for the Chargers' D, it held Washington to 16 points on only 259 yards.

Prescott looked great in his first game back from a gruesome, season-ending leg injury last year. However, in the end, the Cowboys' poor offensive ways from last season carried over and in the end cost the team a victory. In comparison, LA converted 14-of-19 third down attempts. The 14 third-down conversions were the most by any team in the last decade in a single game. That number included Herbert and the offense converting four straight third downs to seal the victory at the end of the game.

Both teams have tough games coming up. The Cowboys host the Eagles next Monday, while the Chargers travel to KC to face the Chiefs. Here's what I see in LA from the Chargers. The team is healthier, has an upgraded offensive line, improved special teams and solid coaching now with Brandon Staley in for Anthony Lynn. Herbert passed a major test against an aggressive Washington defense in Week 1 and now he faces likely one of the worst units in the entire league. I don't see any regression happening for Herbert, especially not against this weak Cowboys defense, which will be playing without its top pass-rushers. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence fractured his foot in Wednesday's practice

The Cowboys are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games (going back to late 2019) and I don't see them 'sneaking' under the number again this week at a MUCH-improved Chargers team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.

The Cardinals looked great in their 38-13 destruction at Tennessee in Week 1 over the Titans. However, I think it's possible they just may get caught a little too contented here against a dangerous Vikings team looking to bounce back from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Cincinnati.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was 36 of 49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns (both to Adam Thielen, who caught nine balls). RB Dalvin Cook was "off his game with just had 61 yards (3.1 YPC) and a TD, while adding four catches for 43 Yards.

The Vikings D allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 261 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) plus allowed Joe Mixon 127 yards rushing. The defense will have to play MUCH better, as Kyler Murray is the best combination passer/runner among all NFC quarterbacks. He threw for 289 yards at Tennessee with four TF+D passes plus ran for a fifth score. Hopkins and Kirk are two outstanding WRs and each caught a pair of TDs.

That said, the Vikes had to deal with a couple of unlucky bounces at the end of their game with Bengals. As long as Kirk Cousins isn't playing in prime time, he's usually very solid. He was last week as well in the loss, but either way, I do think Minnesota can keep this very competitive again.

Arizona is unfamiliar with being as home favorite, as it has happened just NINE time since the start of the 2018 and guess what? Thar cards are just 2-7 ATS in that roll. Yes, I have to point out that Minnesota's Week 1 loss is the team's EIGHTH consecutive ATDS loss going back to Week 11 of 2020.

My answer to that is this team is TOO talented for that to continues and I say this a "perfect" spot for not just an ATS win but a SU one. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET.

Cincinnati held on for dear life in an emotional 27-24 OT win over the Vikings in Week 1. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter, including a game-tying 53-yard FG (0:00) to send the game into OT. However, Cincy did eke out the win. Meanwhile, the Bears 'took it on the chin' in LA in the season's first Sunday night game, losing 34-14. It was just 13-7 at the half but the Rams won the second half 21-7, as Stafford threw for 321 yards and three TDs in his LA debut.

Joe Burrow was solid (20 of 27 for 261 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) plus RB Mixon was a pleasant surprise with 127 rushing yards. However, the Cincy 2ndy was riddled by Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two INTs without an INT despite 49 attempts. As noted above, Chicago's 2ndy wasn't any better than Cincy's. Veteran Andy Dalton is the Chicago starter at QB and he did not play well in his Chicago debut. However, the Bears did run for 134 yards (5.2 YPC) with Montgomery getting 108 on 6.8 YPC.

Taking a look at this game reminds me that the worst thing bettors can do is to overreact at the beginning of the season. Not every team that struggles in Week 1 will continue to do so (and vice versa). Being successful in the NFL is much like handicapping the NFL, as making adjustments from week to week is crucial. The good news for the Bears? The NFC North is wide open, as Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay also all lost. The Packers looked pathetic.

The Bengals on the other hand, are at their arch-nemesis Pittsburgh next week, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Jaguars. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a solid great situational play, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a 20 points or greater SU loss in its previous outing. What's more, Cincy head coach begins his third season with the Benagls and over the first two, the Bengals are just 2-14 SU on the road. Not much to 'cover' here and I expect Dalton to lead the Bears to a VERY satisfying win, that would at worst, leave them tied for the division lead. Small steps.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Featured Sunday Total is on SF/Phi Over at 1:00 ET.

A couple of confident 1-0 teams collide in Week 2 and everything points to a shootout, rather than a chess match.

San Francisco got an excellent game from QB Jimmy G (17 of 25 for 314 yards with one TD and zero INTs) and opened up a 38-10 lead in the 3rd quarter at Detroit last Sunday, However, the Lions scored 23 points in the final 16 1/2-minutes of the game to get the 'back-door' cover. That second half defense collapse doesn't bode well heading to Philadelphia to face Jalen Hurts and this high-flying Eagles offense.

Philadelphia only had a 15-6 halftime lead over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday, but it dominated the second half en route to a 32-rout. QB Jalen Hurts looked sharp, finishing with 264 passing yards and three TDs, to three different receivers also had 62 rushing yards. RB Miles Sanders is healthy (that's BIG deal) and he added 74 rushing yards plus 39 receiving yards.

Shutting down Atlanta is one thing, but doing the same to the 49ers will be much more difficult.

San Francisco posted an 8.0-yard average while on offense. It did lose a couple fumbles (still scored 41 points) but it punted only twice and it conceded just a single sack.

Making this an over play is that the San Francisco pas D allowed Detroit's Jared Goff to throw for 338 yards and three TDs. This game will be competitive and VERY high-scoring.

The play is the over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC East) is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott took over the Bills in 2017 and promptly ended Buffalo's 17-year postseason drought. As he enters fifth season as Buffalo's head coach, he's led the Bills to THREE playoff appearances in his first four seasons, including falling just ONE win shy of the team's first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season in 2020 when they lost the AFC championship game 38-24 at KC. Miami's Brian Flores begins his third season with the Dolphins and his team just missed a playoff berth in 2020, finishing 10-6. Optimism was running high in Miami entering 2021, especially for a franchise that has made just TWO playoff appearances in the previous 19 years!

The teams got off two different starts in Week 1, as the Bills were upset 23-16 at home by the Steelers, while the Dolphins ruined Mac Jones' NFL debut with a 17-16 win in New England. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, seven coming on a blocked punt TD return. Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2021 but looked no better than OK, throwing for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) but that came on 51 attempts! In the end, Allen led his team to just 16 points!

Tua Tagovailoa had 202 passing yards, one TD, and one INT last week He got little help from a running game that was held to just 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC). The Miami defense allowed Jones to throw for 281 yards (no INTs) and RB Harris had 100 yards on the ground but in the end, the Pats could only muster 16 points (the one stat that matters MOST!).

It might be easy to call for a Buffalo bounce back after a humbling home loss to the Steelers in Week 1, but the Bills may just be the most overhyped team in the league. My call here is for Miami to earn a second straight AFC East win, as the Dolphins jelled in the second half of last season and opened 2021 with a win over Belichick in his backyard last Sunday. Miami left backers smiling down the stretch of 2020, covering SIX straight at home, winning FIVE of them SU (lone loss, but an ATS win, was against KC).

Josh Allen is NO Patrick Mahomes and how sweet would a Miami win be? The Dolphins were the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 and a "W" in this one would move them to 2-0, with the Bills falling to 0-2. That's what I expect and any points are just a bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB Week 3 Marquee is on Arizona St at 10:15 ET.

Both Arizona St and BYU have opened 2-0. The Sun Devils haven't really been tested, rolling at home 41-14 over Southern Utah and 37-10 over UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU opened with a 24-16 win in Las Vegas over Arizona and then followed with a 26-17 'Holy War' win over Utah in Provo (ended a 9-game losing streak in the rivalry).

Arizona QB Jayden Daniels is a dual threat and most recently had 125 yards in the win over UNLV. He leads the team in rushing ( 165 yards on 8.7 YPC), as ASU averages 256.0 YPG on the ground, averaging 5.9 YPC. The competition hasn't been stout but the Sun Devil's defense has been terrific, allowing just 12.0 PPG on 189.5 YPG (4th-best in the nation)

BYU surprised all by going 11-1 in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. QB Jaren Hall has BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson) and while he's thrown for a modest 347 yards in two games, he has five TD passes and zero INTs (has also added 128 rushing yards on 9.8 YPC), BYU's defense has allowed a modest 16.5 PPG but has allowed 38.3 YPG, almost 200 yards more per game than ASU's.

I had a HUGE play last Saturday night on BYU in its Holy War' win over Utah (10* Rivalry Best of the Best) but I don't expect lightning to "strike twice" for Hall and BYU here in this "let down" spot for the Cougars off their win over the Utes. ASU is No. 19 and BYU No. 23 but just ONE school will be ranked come Sunday afternoon and that's ASU!

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd play of my STP is on Oklahoma St at 9:00 ET.

I like the 2-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys to pull away down the stretch in this Week 3 matchup.

 Boise State has opened  1-1 but it's a pitiful 123rd in the FBS in averaging only 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. The Cowboys on the other hand concede 3 yards per carry, which ranks 41st in the country.

 The Broncos have looked decent early throwing the ball, averaging 301.5 passing yards per contest, which ranks 23rd in the nation.

However, the Cowboys have been decent in defending the pass in the early going as well, allowing 229 yards passing, which ranks 84th. Boise St QB Hank Bachmeier has been OK, as he has four touchdowns to just one interception but he's not in the class as recent Boise St QBs.

The Cowboys are averaging 244 yards passing per game, which ranks 53rd, and they're also 60th in the FBS in third-down percentage.

QB Shane Illingworth has 315 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception for Oklahoma State.

 The Cowboys won't be taking anything for granted today after two straight close calls. Oklahoma State is 2-0 straight up, but it's 0-2 against the spread. However, I think the Cowboys can build off their 28-23 win over Tulsa last week.

 The Broncos stumbled late against UCF and then hammered UTEP 54-13. Boise St steps up in competition this weekend. and I believe the Broncos will struggle again. Laying points to this Big 12 team is too much to ask. I'm going to grab the points with Oklahoma State.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is on Utah at 7:00 ET.

The Utes saw their nine-game winning streak in the "Holy War" end last Saturday, losing 26-17 at BYU (Regulars know BYU was My 10* Rivalry G.O.Y.). 1-1 Utah visits SD State this Saturday and the Aztecs have opened 2-0. However, SDSU's two wins have come over New Mexico St (0-3 TY, 1-1 LY and 2-10 in 2019) and Arizona, which own the nation's longest-active losing streak of 14 in a row!).

Utah's a big favorite on the road in this non-conference matchup, but in my opinion, not nearly big enough. First, these teams used to be MWC league rivals, before Utah 'jumped' to the Pac-12 for the 2011 season. Then there is this tidbit that many may not know. SD St is playing its "home games" this season in Carson, Ca, 115 miles from campus (plan is for the school's new stadium will be ready for the 2022 season).

Utah QB Charlie Brewer is better than he's shown so far and I expect a "breakout game" here vs a SDSU team that has played two 'cupcakes!' and this Utes offense which has won four of their last six on the road. Utah has a strong ground game averaging 190.5 YPG. Bernard has 181 yards (10.1 YPC)a nd Thomas 133 yards (7.0 YPC).

SDSU will have a difficult time moving the ball against a tough Utah defense which is conceding 21.5 points and 325 yards in the early going. QB Jordon Brookshire has just 259 passing yards, two TDs and an INT for SDSU so far. However, SDSU also has a strong run game, as it has averaged 261.5 YPG over its first two games (Greg Bell has 285 yards on 7.5 YPC). SDSU also has a strong defense, one which has allowed an average of 12 points and 301 yards per game but again, LOOK at the competition!

The schools haven't met since 2010 but note that Utah is 7-1 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings. I expect Utah's bigger lines to wear down SDSU as the game wears on. Catching Utah off its loss to BYU spells 'bad news" for SDSU. "B-L-O-W-O-U-T Alert!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Group of 5 Game of the Year is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET.

The Charlotte football program was created in 2008 and gained FBS status in 2013. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. However, Charlotte has opened 2-0 in 2021, while Ga St sits at 0-2.

Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win), before hammering Gardner-Webb 38-10 as a 22.5 point favorite. QB Reynolds has thrown for a modest 427 yards but his running game is averaging 230.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC ((leading rusher Camp has just 107 yards). Defense has been a major issue for Charlotte, as the 49ers entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes haven't reared its ugly head yet this season, but it's coming (note: The 49ers allowed 352 rush yards (8.0 YPC) against Duke in the opener.).

Georgia St was routed 43-10 at Army on Sep 4 and then last Saturday was in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing at North Carolina, which was coming off a season opening loss to Va Tech. NC's Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howell threw for 352 yards (three TDs) and ran for 104 yards with three TDs. The Tar Heels won 59-17. We just played a talented North Carolina team, and for two-and-a-half quarters, we fought and we scrapped and we clawed to try to hang in there," Panthers' head coach Shawn Elliott said earlier this week. "About six or seven minutes left in that third quarter, it was still a two-possession ballgame, but then it got away from us. So there were some positives, but obviously, no one in our football program is feeling good about where we are right now."

Ga St opened the season with 11 returning starters on offense and eight on defense and will NOT face that kind of offensive talent here. The Panthers almost NEED to win this one, as a trip to Auburn is up next (0-4 start?). I think Charlotte's 2-0 start is a little bit of a 'mirage' and I expect an EASY win for the home side. After all, Charlotte is just 8-26 SU on the road the last six seasons and this is its first roadie of 2021.

I like betting on motivated teams and there's NO question that the Panthers fit the bill and this contest is a big step down in competition, plus they got back some missing starters last week.

That's the play.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Northwestern at 4:00 ET.

Both teams enter at 1-1, but I feel that this is a matchup which favors Northwestern. The Wildcats are the slight favorite here on the road, but I feel they could be much bigger ones.

Northwestern is led by QB Hunter Johnson, who has 341 yards passing in the early going, with four TDs and just one INT. Evan Hull has 213 rushing yards and two TDs for the Wildcats.

Gunnar Holmberg has 498 passing yards, one TD and no INTs for Duke (he also has 24 rushing yards and two TDs scored on the ground.) Mataeo Durant has carried the ball 44 times for a team-high 296 yards and six major scores.

Northwestern was 7-2 last season after a bowl win over Auburn, ending as the AP's 10th-ranked team. Yes, the Wildcats returned only eight starters but I firmly believe they are a much stronger team than Duke, which was only 2-9 in 2020.

Northwestern lost its season opener to Michigan St but the Spartans look like they'll be a top-25 team. Duke lost its opener at Charlotte and a 45-17 win over NC A&T means little. I'm not reading too much into Duke's early numbers, as its level of competition has skewed them on both sides of the ball.

Pat Fitzgerald has had some career at Northwestern, leading the Wildcats to 10 bowl bids in the last 13 season (Northwestern has won its last four bowl games). Including this game, northwester has four Beatable foes over the next five weeks (one bye). Could this be the "start of something big?" Just maybe. For this one, lay the small spread.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

The Hokies shutdown UNC, upsetting the then-10th Ranked Tar heels 17-10 on Sep 4. Va Tech then won 35-14 (-20) last Saturday over Middle Tennessee St. West Virginia QB Braxton Burmeister doesn't have much arm strength (only 311 passing yards in the 2-0 start) and he's now lost the services of TE James Mitchell for the season to injury. What's more, Burmeister is also the team's leader rusher, despite gaining only 94 yards on the ground.

West Va lost its season opener 30-24 at Maryland as a small road favorite (note: I had the Terps!) but then rolled 66-0 over Long Island. OK, I won't make much of that win. That said, QB Doege rates a huge edge over Burmeister, passing fir 536 yards in two games (he had a 14-4 TD-to-INT ratio last season). RB Leddie Brown has run for just 104 yards in his first two games but remember, he had 1,010 rushing yards last year (5.1 YPC).

This marks Va Tech's first road game and note that the Hokies are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Meanwhile, since the start of 2020, the Mountaineers are 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) at Milan Puskar Stadium. Let me note that the lone non-cover was 21-point win over Kansas, laying 21 1/2-points.

Lay the short points and expect a comfortable cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Illinois at 9:00 ET.

Maryland's opened the season 2-0, after playing just five games last season (2-3). The Terps upset West Va in 9/4 at home 30-24 and then routed Howard 62-0 last Saturday (again at home). QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown six TDs (zero INTs). The defense posted a shutout last weekend, after holding West Va to a modest 20 points. However, for me, this is a classic case of not "overreacting" to early numbers (more in a bit).

Illinois finished 2-6 last year, firing head coach Lovie Smith after seven games. The Illini hired Bret Bielema, who was terrific at Wisconsin but a flop at Arkansas. He took over a program that last posted a winning season in 2011! The 2021 season got off to an excellent start, as Illinois upset Nebraska at home 30-22 on Aug 28 but the team has since lost 37-30 at home to UTSA (9/4), before getting routed 42-14 on 9/11 at UVa. Peters was the returning starter at QB but was injured early vs Nebraska and has not returned. Artur Sitkowski has stepped in and has six TDs and just one INT (don't blame him!).

There will be NO lack of motivation here for the Illini, as a loss just could send Bielema's first season at College Park spiraling out of control. I believe Maryland is nowhere near as good as its 2-0 start and with games coming up against Iowa (10/1) and at Ohio St (10/9) coming up soon, I expect the Terps to get 'exposed.' Hey, why not start that process right here, as the Terps are just 3-11 SU on the road the last three seasons. Does that sound like a team that is supposed to be a road favorite of a TD or more?

"Bow wow" The Illini 'bark' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC 'Least' Game of the Month is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET.

The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9, earning the division the moniker of NFC 'Least.' In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. How did things go in Week 1? The Eagles won impressively 32-6 in Atlanta and the Cowboys lost 31-29 at Tampa Bay on a last-second FG, but Washington and New York both lost (0-2 ATS).

The Giants travel to D.C. off a 27-13 home loss to Denver, a game in which QB Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard TD run with no time left on the clock. Washington's defense was the reason it won the division last season but that D allowed the Chargers to gain 424 yards and most notably, to convert 14 of 19 third down attempts. Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury early on (3 of 56 for 13 yards) and it looks as if Taylor Heinicke (from the FB powerhouse of Old Dominion) will be Thursday night's starting QB. It's a short week but I like the Giants. Daniel Jones looked OK, as he had 267 passing yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions (37 attempts. However, the Giants NEED a return to form by Saquan Barkley (10 carries for 26 yards).

The Giants have 'owned' this series lately, winning the last FIVE (4-1 ATS). Want more? The Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road, while the Washington Football team is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six when playing the role of favorite. I expect an outright but grab as many points as you can, The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic play is on Bal/LV Under at 8:15 ET.

Baltimore has a really good team. It has a dynamic offense that averaged 29.3 points per game last year.

The offense is run by LaMar Jackson, who had 2,757 yards, 26 TDs, and nine INTs last year. He also led the team with 1,005 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

But how will Baltimore adjust after losing Marcus Peters, J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to injury ALL in the last week?!

That's obviously the big question Baltimore was one of the best on the defensive side of the ball last season, finishing by conceding just 18.9 PPG.

This tough Ravens' defense will be tasked to slow down Derrick Carr, who had 4,103 yards passing, 27 TDs, and nine INTs last year. Las Vegas also has a strong run game with Josh Jacobs, who had 1,065 rushing yards and 12 major scores last year.

If Jon Gruden is going to make the playoffs with his new team for the first time in four years, clearly Las Vegas has to address its issues on the defensive end, a unit that conceded 29.9 PPG last year.

I don't think Harbrough wants to let Gruden and the Raiders control the tempo. Baltimore wants to wear this home side down and win the war in the trenches and with great field position created by its defense.

There are many different variable factors at play here that make me believe we'll see a low-scoring defensive game, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The play is the under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Chicago Bears.

Both teams are starting new quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford is going to have his hands full now that he's out of the dome in Detroit and amidst the difficult NFC West.

Andy Dalton will get the call to start off with in Chicago, with Justin Fields as a very capable backup ready to step in if needed.

I think the Bears veteran can match Rams' new QB Matthew Stafford's performance (who will face his former team the Lions in Week 7.) The Rams also have to still fill the void left by Cam Akers, who was lost to a torn Achilles.

Granted, the Rams have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball, but I'm not convinced that Stafford is going to be able to seamlessly fit into this West Coast offense and Conference overall.

The Rams also have to transition for a tricky non-conference road game at Indianapolis next weekend, before then returning home to host the defending champs.

The Bears on the other hand have a very manageable early schedule, which sees them return home to face the Bengals next, followed by the Browns and Lions.

All games are important in a 17 game season, but the Bears will be looking really good if they can manage to pull off a road upset here.

One final thing, Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NFC road games as an underdog in the +6.5 to +8.5 points range.

I'm not calling for the outright. But everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

As such, grab as many points as you can.

Good luck...Larry

My AFC 10* Game of the Month is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET.

Both teams are predicted to do well this season. Obviously, that's no surprise for KC but it looks as if Cleveland has finally "turned the corner." The Chiefs have exceeded their O/U season win total eight seasons in a row.

 They're a +445 favorite to win Super Bowl 56 and +234 leader to repeat as conference Champion.

These teams played here last season in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Kansas City had to hold on for dear life in the 22-17 victory. Chiefs' star QB Patrick Mahomes left that one early with an injury.

What I do definitely think can't be ignored though, is that the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series, including the playoffs.

 Cleveland has gotten progressively better each of the last five seasons and that progression is going to continue this year. Especially on the defensive side of the ball, as it concentrated heavily in that department in the offseason, signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II at No. 26 overall.

 This is a big contract year for Browns' QB Baker Mayfield. He'll benefit from a 100% healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will once again be contending at the end of the season. Of course, they will be. I won't try and bash Kansas City, it's obviously one of the best in the entire league and as long as Mahomes stays healthy, a Super Bowl victory is definitely a very real possibility again.

However, KC went just 8-11 ATS last year including the playoffs.

 Anything can happen in Week 1. It's unpredictable. The bottom line is, I think that Mayfield has the offense around him to keep pace with Mahomes.

 In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck...Larry