I love the Chiefs here in the Super Bowl.  Mahomes is just something really special and yes I know it's hard to repeat I just don't see how the Bucs can slow them down.  I will give Brady and the Bucs credit for getting here as they had to do so with 3 straight road games.  Brady if you're being honest though hasn't looked great by any stretch though.  Also these teams already met in the regular season in Tampa btw where the Super Bowl is being played and KC had their way with them.  So the final score was 27-24 but the Chiefs were up 27-3 and it felt they really just let up as they had the game in hand.  Tampa scored 2 meaningless TD's in the fourth and that's how they covered. 

We are locking this in early.  I absolutely the Packers here in this game.  Tampa was extremely lucky if you. watched any. part of the Saints game.  The turnovers left Brady with a short field and it was very misleading.  Not many times in the NFL do you see a team -4 in turnovers with still a chance to win.  Tampa and Brady dont impress me at all.  Rodgers brings something totally different to the table here this week.  The Packers defense is good enough here IMO to keep Brady and the offense in check.  They key in fact will be slowing down the running game which opens everything up for them.  I love the Packers here!!!

I just love the Saints here in this game.  Yes people will say its hard to beat a team 3 games in a row  and I understand it but its not like these series were close.  Yes, they were a while ago but were you really impressed with the Bucs last week?  I mean Washington signed a QB off the street and nearly won the game.  The Bucs defense has issues and that was shown last week.  Saints are now fully healthy which they haven't been all season.  I think we are getting a discount here. 

I will take the Packers here today.  I think too much hyper is being made from the Rams and their defense.  Yes, I know Ramsey is a stud and probably will hold Adams in check.  The only way to Rams can win or hang around is if it's low scoring and I dont that with how explosive this Packers team is.  Rams do have injury issues with Donald and Kupp who are obviously huge names to both sides of the ball.  Pack pull away here

I think we are seeing a major overreaction in the line here.  This was Steelers favored by 3.5 and. now it's 6. because of the coaching situation.  While its not ideal I get it, but you dont think the Browns would love nothing more here?  Also people are looking at last week and thinking the Steelers rested a bunch of guys and still almost beat the Browns.  Look the Browns were favored by nearly double digits and now Pitt is favored by 6?  Give me the Browns 

I love the. Ravens in a great revenge spot from last season.  Yes, I know the narrative here is that Lamar hasn't won a playoff game but I like the way the Ravens are trending here winning 5 straight and covering 6 straight.  Also I love the matchup for Lamar as the Titans have a horrible defense and he should have a hay day moving the ball.  Titans will have to. get out of their game plan which is pound Henry and I dont think that bold well.

I just have a funny feeling here in this game.  Is there a team that is more excited or motivated to be in the playoffs than Washington?  This Washington defense is nasty and I think they will cause Brady a ton of problems and force him to make some bad throws.  Alex Smith is 5-1 as a starter so that's a plus and they are catching more than a TD? The Bucs are just 4-4 ATS on the road and sure they are 5-2 SU their last 7 but all 5 wins against non  playofff teams and. 2 losses against playoff teams.

Something is wrong with this Seahawks team you can't ignore it.  They have only scored over 30 points once in the last 8 games and that was against the Jets.  I also trust Mcvay and company here and this line smells as we see a backup QB against a former Super Bowl winner only getting a FG.  the betting public will be all over the Seahawks here.  To me it's all about the defense here and with that you have to take the Rams. 

I'm going to take the Colts here in this game.  Dont get me wrong I like what Buffalo has done and they deserve credit, however now they are favored by 6.5 in a playoff game and this it totally different waters.  Both defenses are actually pretty similar but numbers. wise the edge belongs to the Colts. Rivers has also been in plenty of playoff games. so I trust the experience factor.  I'm not saying Colts win but I dont see a blowout 

It seems like the Titans are getting a ton of love because Henry and crew have gone off the last couple games.  Well those games were against the Lions and Jags two teams who are clearly done for the year.  The main thing here is that the Packers are playing for the #1 overall seed and that means a huge deal to Rodgers and them.  The Titans defense is average at best and to me I dont see how they slow down Aaron and company. 

I get that Hurts has really provided a spark to this Eagles team especially with his legs but now al of the sudden they are laying points to a division rival who is also playing well?  The Cowboys have found new life here and now all of the sudden find themselves staring down the playoffs. Cowboys D is flying around making plays creating turnovers.  I think the wrong team is favored here. 

I will lay it with the Chargers.  There is no doubt the Chargers have been one of the most frustrating teams to watch in the league this season.  They are clearly so much better than their record indicates.  Throw in the fact that the Chargers blew a huge lead @ Denver in a very gross comeback victory I think will Ladd fuel to them here.  I thought this line would be 5 or so actually so will gladly lay the short price here 

The Football is now a public team as crazy as that it to say.  Honestly though with them starting Haskins there is no way I want anything to do with him. I know the line is reflecting that he is starting but give me Teddy as the dog here.  Sharp money has came in on Carolina moving this line down.  The Panthers have lost 3 straight games by a total of just 14 points.  They have been in every game.  I think they win this one outright here.

I think too much is being made of the Giants and what they have to play for.  They were in a great spot last week and failed to show against the Browns.  Jones is a big time question as well and it doesn't matter to me if he goes or not.  The Giants offense is struggling big time as they haven't scored over 20 points in each of the last 4 games.  Baltimore on the other hand is starting to click right now scoring 37,47,40 their last 3 games.  I think they put it on the Giants here. 

I will take the points here with the Raiders.  This Miami team does have a lot to play for yes but the love they are getting is simply too much here.  The look ahead line last week here was Raiders -2 and now it has flipped 5 points.  There is no reason for that big of adjustment here.  Raiders dont have a great defense but the Miami offense isn't exactly anything to brag about.  Carr is playing and I trust Gruden here not letting this team totally collapse down the stretch. 

I just dont understand this line at all.  We have a 3rd string QB starting for the Niners who are one of the most injured teams in the league that literally have nothing to play for and the Cardinals on the other hand have everything to play for.  Clearly this line doesn't make much sense as it should be higher.  Cards offense lead by Murray I think will have a field day while I see the Niners really struggling on the offensive end.

I just dont get the love for the Bucs.  This team quite frankly doesn't pass the eye test at all.  They were very lucky last week as the refs gave them a couple huge calls and yet they still couldn't pull away from the Vikings.  The Bucs are laying the same number the road as they were. last. week and this is a division rival.  Falcons would love. nothing more than to spoil the Bucs season.  I know Atlanta hasn't been great but they clearly better than their record indicates.  Also Jones their RB is out for the game as well 

There is zero reason right now for the Niners to be favored especially on the road.  They have had two great spots back to back and came up short big time.  The Niners season is now lost following those two bad losses hard to imagine where their head is.  I think all the injury issues as well is a huge concern.  The Cowboys here I will take my chances as they are. coming off a win on the road.  Dallas losing to Washington and Baltimore recently doesn't look quite so bad now either.  I think there is still some fight left in this team.  

I really like the Seahawks here in this spot for several reason.  First, the love for Washington is pretty high right now as they have won 4 straight games.  The thing is though Smith is banged up and probably won't play and Haskins is clearly a guy that no one trusts at all.  Seattle still can win their division and definitely wont be looking past this red hot team.  I really feel like we are getting a good discount here with them because of Washington's success.  

I will take the Texans here in this game.  Colts off a big road win over Raiders and Texans off an ugly loss vs Bears.  2 weeks ago though people are quick to forget that the Texans should have won the game outright if it wasn't for a fumble on 1st and goal inside the 5 yard line.  Texans get Cooks back at WR so that is a big help.  I think they still have a sour taste in their mouth from that game and this is too many points.  The Colts also missing some defensive players including Slay their best corner and Leonard their best all around player on defense who really makes them go.

I think this is a discount here with the Vikings.  Yes, they didn't cover last week but their kicker was 0-4 in the game which had a huge part to do with it.  Also the refs really cost them twice on crucial plays in the game giving the Bucs points both times.  Bears getting a lot of love for their performance last week.  I had them over the Texans but that game in an outlier as it was their best showing all season.  I like to fade teams off their best effort.  Vikings much better overall team 

I really like Denver here in this spot.  The Bills are going to be extremely popular here and are getting a little too much love for my liking right now.  Buffalo is off a huge home run win over Pitt and now a big travel spot.  This Denver team clearly hasn't quit at all on the season and it showed again last week with a nice road win as a dog.  I think they will be able to run the ball here muck it up a little.  I also think Bills D is overrated and I see Lock playing a very good game. 

This series for whatever reason has always been close.  I think the Lions are definitely live here.  They will get back Swift and Golliday who are crucial for this team.  Prior to the Packers covering earlier this season Detroit has covered every game going back to 2017.  This series is just close like mentioned and this is too many points.  Detroit can hang some points here now with Stafford and a healthier squad.  

I'm going against the grain here for sure with the Eagles.  Simple here for me as I think Hurts will provide a spark to this team in general.  Wentz has flat out put this team in horrible positions with all his turnovers.  I know the Saints D is good but I also wonder how much interest they have here with the Chiefs on deck.  Philly's D is underrated and Im still not blown away with Hill at  QB.   I like the Eagles to keep it close here

I will take the Bears here in this matchup.  The Texans are coming off just a deflating loss as they had it 1st and goal inside the 5 to win the game vs the Colts their division rival.  They fumbled the snap lost the ball and the game was over.  I think that is a devastating blow to this team.  Also, throw in the fact that Watson is literally throwing to practice squad players at. WR now is a big concern.  Another huge factor is we have a dome team playing outside. in miserable weather.  I trust the Bears D to shut them down in a. ugly game. and get the win. 

I will take the Chiefs here in this game.   I think the betting public will now be writing them off since they. haven't covered for over a month.  Yes, they have a huge game next week but with their red zone performance. last week I think they will get it right.  Miami has been on a hot run sure but most of that is because of their defense.  I don't see Mahomes giving them any gifts like they have been getting.  Miami has struggled on offense, look last week playing a horrible defense in Cincy and can't get to 20 points.  I think this is a statement game and the Chiefs are back in the hunt to claim the 1 seed for the AFC

I will take Denver here.  I think both of these teams are very equal and Carolina has been a favorite twice this season and both of those meeting they lost outright.  Carolina is dealing with players being out like McCaffrey, Samuel, Moore.  They are thin at RB and WR.  They are getting respect because of their bye week.  Denver I had last week vs the Chiefs and they covered.  The week before you throw out because they didn't have a QB.  But 2 games ago they beat the red hot Miami Dolphins.  I think this team is still playing hard.  

A little too much love here on the Patriots.  So yes they embarrassed the Chargers but should we really upgrade them for that?  Cam is really struggling right now and lets face it the Patriots offense is going to struggle against maybe right now the best defense in the league.  I trust Mcvay and company here to get it done.  This team is looking to win their division so they have plenty of motivation.  

I think the Niners all of the sudden are extremely motivated here with a win over their division rival I the Rams last week.  This team still has a legit shot to make the playoffs believe it or not.  The Niners as well know has been a team banged up by injuries everywhere.  Well, now they are getting healthier and do have weapons on offense against an average Bills D at best.  Bills going across country here and they are getting a ton of respect because of their record.  I just think the Niners here are a team to back down the stretch.

I like Denver here in this spot Sunday night.  First, I could make the case they they are the most motivated team in the league following what took place with with them and the league last week with their QB situation.  I think that really fires them up for this especially against a division rival.  Also worth noting last week when the Broncos faced the Saints with a WR at QB the line was just a couple more points than now.  Chiefs are clearly a public team and I would make the case this is a let down spot for them following two big road game vs Raiders and Tampa now with two big ones on deck with Miami and Saints.  The total here is also 50.5 which everyone will be betting the over giving me more confidence the books know the low score here providing extra value with Denver 

I like the Cardinals here as now they opinion of them has changed here.  The look ahead line here was a PK and now both teams lose but the Rams get the love and are favored by 3?  I'm not buying this type of reaction.  I think Murray is healthy this week and the Cardinals were pretty unlucky last week @ New England or else I think they are favored here.  This game matters to the Cardinals more here as both teams would have the same record if AZ won.  I know both teams are motivated but to me these teams are equal and I will take AZ

I will take the Browns here in this game.  The Browns are in a role I much prefer them in and that is as a dog.  I think the narrative here is that they are a overrated 8-3 team and while I do believe that I think the Titans though you could make the same case about.  Titans off a huge road division win.  Also the Browns bring in the best running game in the league and I fully think they can control this game.  Also what do the Titans love to do is run the ball as well making less possessions favoring the big dog here.  Browns get Garrett back and we all know the difference he makes on that DL.

So the Raiders here were flat out embarrassed last week scoring just 3 points and got blown out by the Falcons.  I think this is a great bounce back spot for them here as they are very much alive in the playoff race for the AFC.  The Jets were in a great spot last week getting Darnold back and facing a division rival but flat out laid an egg.  Raiders have been a much better road road team this season with a 4-2 record SU and ATS.  Raiders in a great spot and I think we do see the effort following the horrible performance last week

I like the Dolphins here really to put the hammer down the Cincy.  The Bengals had a kickoff return last week and a late one after Jones went out for the Giants.  The fact that they covered they are getting some respect.  I know book makers wouldn't make Dolphins a 2 touchdown favorite but I don't think we all know how bad this Cincy team is now.  Their season is shot and quite frankly you will see their lines get bigger and bigger.  

I'm taking the Colts here in this game.  I think they will be extra motivated here following an ugly loss to the Titans who clearly had revenge on their mind.  The Colts here have a great advantage of running the ball and also return players from the Covid list last week.  Texans lost some key players in Roby on defense but their biggest player outside of Watson in their WR Fueller.  He meant so much to that offense I dont think they are adjusting enough for his loss.  

This will definetly be a sharp vs public type of game here.  Everyone now has teen Tom Brady in two prime time games simply wet the bed. They will for sure run to grab the Chiefs here based on those. results.   The Chiefs just aren't as good as anyone is making them out to be.  They have now survived back to back close games to the Panthers and Raiders and really could have easily lost both of those.  Chiefs are just 3-2 ATS on the road.  Also the Chiefs don't present a rush defense like the Rams did where Brady will have more time to pick them apart. 

I like the Broncos here in this spot.  They showed me something last week facing a red hot Dolphins team.  Yes, the Saints won and covered as the Falcons and Ryan were an absolute no show. However, I wasn't extremely impressed with Hill at all and just think since they covered this line is inflated.  The Saints only scored 24 on a very bad Falcons defense.  Denver is much better here and also the Saints have the Falcons again next week.  Weird spot for the Saints to be in here, I will take the points with Denver.

yea, the Cardinals haven't looked great the last few weeks and were extremely lucky against the Bills.  I think though we are getting a very cheap price here with them.  Murray is still having a great year and with the Patriots result last week it tells me they have thrown in the towel on the season.  That Texans team is flat out horrible and the Patriots were a no show.  Cardinals have a lot riding on their season and following a Thursday night loss with extra time to prep here I think they win this one and cover the short number.

I am really shocked this opened this low.  Last week the Vikings opened up a 7 point favorite vs the Cowboys and I had Dallas as they won outright.  Well now you're telling me that this Panther team without McCaffrey and possible a backup QB are better than Dallas?  No way I'm buying that at all.  Cook is going to have a field day against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.  I know Thelin is on the Cover list but it shouldn't matter.  I really love this bounce back spot for Minnesota as they still have a legit chance at the playoffs. 

I had the Colts last week as they won and covered against the Packers in OT.  The Titans also won and covered abasing the Ravens in OT.  I really like these quick division revenge games.  These teams met just two games ago on a Thursday and the Colts really took it to them.  I think everyone will jump back on board them here.  The Titans still put up 157 on the ground vs this good Colts defense so I think the score was pretty misleading.  Tannehill played a horrible game which is what cost them.   This is a FG either way at most and wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won at their place this time around 

Alright the Chargers finally got win and now. lets back them here.  Every single game they have lost has been one possession.  The Chargers you could make the case for here that they are the best 3-7 team ever.   This team has talent across the board and I think will present problems for the Bills and their weak defense.  Buffalo coming off their bye probably feeling pretty fat and happy right now with a 7-3 start.  Their whole division just lost last week so giving them more cushion.  This isn't a Bills team I think should be laying near touchdowns to many teams at all.  They also play a. ton of close games as 6 of their. last 7 have been by one possession.  

I'm taking the Jets here in this game.  If you have watched the Dolphins since Tua has been starting you know they have been pretty lucky since a lot of their touchdowns have came fro their defense.  Tua got benched last week but now are starting again.  There. is plenty of film out and I think with this being a division game the Jets will be motivated.  Jets were also skinned 24-0 in the first meeting which I think provides a little extra edge as well. 

I was on the Cowboys last week as they beat the Vikings straight up as a 7 point underdog.  The thing here is now Dalton is back healthy and more comfortable.  This  Cowboys team still has a ton of talent and that was on full display.  They beat literally one of the hottest teams in the league and that says something.  This Cowboys team still believes they can win this division and why not. I'm going to ride the momentum here of that win and believe it carries over here.  Dallas had their worst game of the season vs the. Football Team in scoring 3 points.  Cowboys out for some revenge on Thanksgiving.

I really like the Chiefs here in this spot Sunday night.  They have had this game circled on the schedule since they lost to them.  In. fact it has been the only. team to lose as a double digit favorite this season.  We all know Andy Reid is by far the best coach in the league or world for that matter off the bye.  The. Chiefs will be taking big time shot down the field to. expose that Raiders secondary.  I think they build a lead and that changes the Raiders gameplay as they want to control it on the ground again.  Mahomes and company make a statement win.

I like the Colts here in this game.  This is a team I really haven't looked to back much because of Rivers, but I think they are underrated right now.  This defense can flat out play and they are playing with a ton of confidence.  I think the Packers are extremely overrated and it proved last week as they struggled with a horrible Jags team.  Their defense is an issue but in large part it hasn't been shown because of their level of competition.  Indy can control the game on the ground here which I think is the key.  Also give me the way better D ,Colts win this game and cover the short number.

I like the spot here for the Cowboys.  yes, their defense is awful but I believe this is the ultimate sell high spot on the Vikings right now.  They have won and covered 3 straight games and all of these were against division teams.  Cowboys are off the bye now and do have some players healthy on defense.  I could really see the Vikings struggling out of the. gate here on the short week.  This is also one of those games that a lot of people will be picking in survivor pools.  If you follow that closely you know that in recent weeks teams that will be most selected have flat out struggled big time win the game example Packers last week.  Cowboys are a live dog 

I know Darnold is out in this game but I the Chargers laying double digits?  This is simply just too many points here. The Jets have covered 2 of their last 3 games and I have to question where the heads of the Chargers are after yet another single digit loss and essentially being eliminated from the playoffs last week.  Also the Chargers were favored by 8 over the Jags and covered but that was extremely misleading as the Jags lead that game late in the 3rd.  I wouldn't be shocked here if the Jets did something crazy and won this game.  They dont wanna be that team that has zero wins so I still think they will put forth an effort.

I will take the Patriots on the ML here.  I had them last weekend as they won outright as a 7 point underdog to the Ravens.  I just think this is a match up advantage here big time for New England.  They love to run the ball and there is no better team to run it against as the Texans. are dead last against it in the league.  We have also seen how Cam has played against bad defenses like Seattle he looked like a world beater and the MVP from old.  I think we see that again here in the matchup and the Patriots still believe they have a chance at the playoffs.  The Texans I remind you have two wins but against one team and that is the Jags.

I'm adding the Football team here in this game today.  Cincy was in a great spot last week off their bye and flat out failed to show. Yes, the Football team got down. @ Detroit by 21 but clearly there is a lot of fight left in them and that is what you're looking for with these kind of teams. late in the season.  They fought back tied it and had a chance to win.  Also worth noting is the fact that the Football team has such a much better defense and they will be coming at Burrow left and right as he has one of the worst OL in the league

Coming later

So we are seeing the lowest total on the board this week and getting a dog of more than touchdown?  Yes, we. can all agree the.  Patriots are down and they needed a. comeback against the Jets as. everyone witnessed.  Alright, flip this situation and ask yourself. do you like what you. have seen from Baltimore on offense so far? I think it's safe to say that Baltimore can score around mid 20's.  To me if that's the scenario, then worst case that the Patriots are live for a back door even if they only have 14 points.  I trust Bellichick here in a prime time game to have his team ready

I grab this one early as I think the Rams needed the bye week more than any team in the league last week.  Their travel schedule has been flat out terrible as they went to the east coast 4 different times already.  The bye week should have them fresh and hungry here against their division rival.  We are also seeing an historical horrible defense from Seattle and they show no signs of getting any better.  Give me the Rams here in this spot. 

I like the Bengals here in this spot.  We all can clearly agree that Pitt is no where. near as good as their undefeated record.  Last week they struggled big time. against a pathetic Cowboys defense.  The Steelers offense has scored over 300 the last 3 games and I think this is difficult here for them coming off three 3 straight road games as well.  Cincy is fresh off their bye and had a big win going into their. bye week.  I look for the momentum to carry them. here.  Burrow is the real deal and he will move the. ball on them.  

I believe this is a great spot now to back the Cardinals.  I also think the betting public will be all over the Bills here.  So last week the Cardinals should have beat the Dolphins and because of last weeks results we will draw some public attention.  Buffalo is in an extremely tough spot here coming off their big win over the Seahawks.  We also shouldn't be surprised by the Bills offense last week as the. Seahawks have literally the worst defense in the league and it's not close.  I like the Cardinals to bounce back in a big way here

Everyone right now seems to love the Dolphins.  Yes, they have been a nice surprise to say the least.  I. just think now we are seeing them in a role that they are use to being in.  This will only be the 2nd time all season that they have been favored and it was against the Jets the first time.  Yes, the Chargers have lost several close games but I think they rise to the occasion here.  Miami has multiple injuries at RB and WR.  I also think the fact that Miami keeps scoring defensive TD's has them inflated.

Alright this is a big time bounce back spot here for Detroit.  They  have lost.  back to back games but right now IMO they are playing the worst team in football in the Football team with the. fact that Alex Smith is now their starting QB.  This offense is just brutal and while. Smith's comeback story is nothing short of phenomenal but he has looked flat out terrible and simply isn't mobile.  Detroit here isn't eliminated from playoff contention yet and I think they bounce back with a big one in a great spot.

I love the Bucs here Sunday night.  They clearly had this game circled as we saw their no show performance on Monday night against the Giants.  I love this spot for the Bucs because they have this game circled as. they lost week 1 and it was Brady's fault as he threw. the pick 6 that sealed the game.  I also think the betting public will love that. Thomas and Sanders will be back this week so they think the Saints will score well I dont it see it that way.  The Saints O and Brees check downs dont scare the Bucs.  I trust Bucs in the revenge game 

I like the Cardinals here in this game.  I like people are going to big time overreact to what they saw vs the Rams last week.  The Dolphins were very lucky having multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns.  The offense couldn't get over 200 total yards for the game.  Now, they dont have a running game at all with cluster injuries at that position.  AZ coming off the bye week and the look ahead line last week was 6.  There is no reason to downgrade the Cardinals for not playing.  I think they roll here in this spot.  

I think the betting public will love them some Raiders here this week.  Yes the Raiders have surprised a lot of people this season but I also think they are over valued here as the look ahead line was the Chargers -3 last week.  So with Vegas winning and Chargers losing in horrific fashion no one will want the Chargers who could easily be above 500 here.  I think this is the ultimate rally the troops game as the coaches will be preaching they still have a chance at the playoffs if they win this game which they do.  A loss here would mean season over.  max effort here for the Chargers. 

I like the Panthers here in this game.  First, they return their stud CMC and he clearly matches up very well against the Chiefs here as they struggle against the run.  The Chiefs I doubt are that interested here as their bye week is looming.  Carolina and Teddy will take. care of the ball which is. why he covers. so well as a dog.  They have the longer week to prepare here coming off Thursday night.  I see Carolina scoring in the 20's which will be enough to cover here easily.  

I like the Titans here which won't be a popular pick by any means.  Let's look at it as the Bears are 5-3 and 5-3 ATS and everyone loves their defense as it keeps them in games.  I think oddsmakers are clearly tilting their hand here to what they feel about the Bears.  The Bears also have big time cluster injuries on their OL that is already one of the worst in the league.  Titans are undervalued here and they do score 30 ppg.  With the Titans losing to the Bengals last week everyone will write them off.  I love them this week.  Bears also off an OT loss which is more difficult 

I know this is an ugly one here but I will take the Bears.   First, no one will want anything to do with. them after the Monday showing where they didn't score a TD on offense.  Well, this line is clearly inflated here and the Saints are no good.  What the Saints love to do the Bears D will be able to control in Karmara.  I also think worth noting that the Bears were pinned deep a handful of times inside their own 5 which is difficult for any team.  Great bounce back spot and I think the Bears really put forth a big effort.

I will take Seattle here in a nice bounce back spot.  I was against them last week on the Sunday night game and they lost in OT.  The thing is though they could have easily covered if it weren't for the personal foul on the field goal that resulted in a first down.  They also had a TD called back in OT.  So they had several things go against them in covering and off a loss I trust Wilson.  I think San Fran is getting a ton of respect here for the last two weeks beating the Rams and Patriots.  San Fran still has a ton of injuries and I like Seattle in this spot.

This line here is one of the biggest knee jerk reactions we are seeing.  So I had Denver and lost last week but the Chiefs have 3 defensive/special teams TD which is super lucky.  In fact Denver out gained KC for the game.  The Chargers were 8.5 point favorites over the Jags last week and Jacksonville was actually leading late in the third so with the Chargers covering it was misleading on their end.  So they are saying that if this game were played in @ LA that the Chargers would be favored by nearly the same as the Jags?  No way not buying it.  Denver bounces back here.  Herbert is good but being a road favorite now against a division rival?  Denver is the play here

The Titans. just suffered their first lost to the Steelers but this team is vastly overrated IMO.  Let's look at their first 3 wins.  They beat the Broncos by 2, Jags by 3 and Vikings. by 1.   I mean these are bottom team who they barely beat.  Also they were favored by 3 @ Minnesota and I think this Bengals team is better than them right now.  The Bengals should have won last week as the Browns scored with just seconds left in the game.  Burrow is the real deal and the Titans D isn't anything special.  This is simply way too many points here

This will clearly be a sharp/square game here.  Everyone and their mother will be all over the Steelers here as they are undefeated.  I just love this situation for the Ravens coming off the bye week.  It's interesting to me how really not many are talking about this team at all right now.  I'm not taking anything away from Pitt but lets look at the lines.  The Titans were favored by 1.5 over them and you are telling me that the Ravens are. only 2 points better than Tennessee?  I dont buy that clearly.  I think Ravens win this easily

I believe this is the buy low spot on the Bills.  They didn't look good at all last week vs the Jets but that game was extremely misleading as the Bills outgained them by over 200 yards but couldn't find the end zone.  I just think the Patriots had the perfect situation last week and quite simply failed to respond.  They were coming off a bad loss to the Broncos at home and had the chance to respond vs the Niners and failed to. against all the. injuries. they have.  Buffalo I believe shows this division is now theirs in a big way

This is just a great spot here to back the Dolphins.  I know many will have questions about why make this. move to Tua so early considering the Dolphins have a legit chance to make the playoffs.  To me it shows the confidence they have in him.  I also think this is the worst spot for the Rams here.  First, they are on a short week coming off the MNF win over the Bears, but their travel schedule has just been brutal as this is their 5th time on the east coast of the season which is a ton. They have their bye week following and I think this is the ultimate let. down spot here.  Miami will be more motivated coming off their bye.

I will take the Cardinals here as they were flexed to the Sunday night game.  Seattle is getting way too much respect here for me.  So oddsmakers are saying that the Cardinals would be 6.5 or more point dogs @ Seattle suggesting that AZ is worse than the Vikings?  No way that is the case.  Seattle has been very very lucky to say the least.  Murray will expose this very bad defense with some big time plays. This is way too many points here.  This game will easily be one of sharp vs square games 

I really like the Broncos here in this game.  This team showed me a lot last week going into New England and winning outright.  In fact the game wasn't even as close as the final score might indicate.  They have the injury bug but are now getting some pieces back on defense which is key vs the Chiefs.  This is a short week for KC against a division rival and throw in the fact it's suppose to snow a lot, I think Denver can really keep this close.

I'm going to lay it here with the Patriots in a great bounce back spot.  This team was simply flat last week and you can blame a lot of that on not being able to practice and prepare and it clearly showed.  This Niners team is coming off a big win over the Rams but exactly how good are the Rams?  There is no one that Belichick can prepare more for than a QB that he use to have.  Both teams are battling some injuries but I do trust Cam and Belichick more here

Coming later

I like the Browns here in this spot.  I think most will be scared to back the Browns here as they were blown out against the Steelers last week.  I think this is the perfect spot and match up for them here.  The Browns love to establish the run and no better team to do so than against the Bengals.  The Bengals did cover in the first meeting with a gross and meaningless backdoor.  Bengals are banged up right now and I like the bounce back spot here for the Cleveland 

I like Carolina here as the Saints are still getting way too much respect for me.  Yes, they are off their bye week but laying over a TD against a division rival seems crazy.  I was against the Panthers last week as the Bears came in and won outright.  Well the Saints dont present that much of a problem on defense and Teddy should have no issue moving the ball.  I think we get an all out effort here from Carolina give me the points.

I like the Bucs here.  I know most will be in love with the Packers here sitting undefeated and coming off their bye week.  Throw in the fact Tampa lost in the prime time game Thursday against the Bears and most people lost money with them. But, the biggest thing here is that last week Tampa was -3 in this game now just based on one game we are seeing near a 6 point move?! That's crazy to me.  Packers have beat the Lions, Vikings, Saints and Falcons.  Which one of those wins impress you?  Exactly none of them

I will go back with the Bengals here.  I lost last week with them but if you told me Baltimore would score 27 I would have bet Cincy covers that game easily.  Well, they failed to show up on offense here. Rivers shouldn't be laying more than a TD against anyone right now.  I just really like the bounce back spot here for Cincy.  Colts have faced a very easy schedule so far and I think that has inflated their defensive numbers.  Burrow bounces back with a solid game here

The Lions season here isn't lost quite. yet.  They know this is the game that they have to win if they have any hopes here and with coming off the bye week I expect a big effort.  The Jags defense is in for a long day here against Stafford.  You just have to wonder where the Jags heads are after losing back to back road games to winless teams at that time in Cincy and Houston.  It's a long up hill battle for the Jags and give me the desperate team

I like the Bears here in this matchup.  I think Carolina is now riding a little too hot as they have won 3 straight games as an underdog and now they are favored and begging for action.  I just worry about this Carolina offense against a very good D and that is exactly what the Bears bring in here.  Chicago might have their issue on offense but Carolina doesn't have a good D and I think Foles will take care of that.  Bears win this game outright

This line is just too high.  I get it the Eagles haven't looked by any means but I think they will be big time motivated here.  First, they actually gained new life with the Dak injury as now the Eagles are the front runner for the division.   Throw in the the fact the Ravens are coming to town and the Eagles know the importance of this game.  They are getting healthier as well. Ravens offense just isn't clicking right now this year ranking 24th in the league.  I think its smart to look the opposite way here getting more than a TD at home.

Late add info coming 

I really think this Chargers team is a lot better than most want to believe or give credit for.  They should have beaten the Chiefs and Bucs letting leads slip away in both games.  I’m not impressed at all with the Saints and Brees.  They can sure put up points still but they don’t look the same when you watch them. 

I think the Browns here are the right side.  I'm not overreacting to last weeks big win over Dallas as their offense came alive.  The Colts have played one of the weakest schedules in the league and lets not forget they did lose to the Jaguars. The Browns are playing with some major confidence right now winning 3 straight.  I know the Colts D is ranked #1 but I think that is a fluke because of who they have played.  Big statement win coming from the Browns this week

I had the Dolphins last week in a losing effort but they were clearly the fight side vs Seattle.  They covered 90% of the game but a mistake late cost them the cover.  This 49ers team is just really messed up right now.  They looked flat out horrible Sunday night vs the Eagles.  While I know jimmy G is back, I know he isn't 100%.  The Dolphins will move the ball and score here against the banged up defense of San Fran.  

I'm taking the Falcons here in this game.  Yes, they are 0-4 but they should be an was 2-2 right now and because of that we are getting good value.  Falcons last week were 3.5-4 point favorites and now this line has dropped big time.  Carolina has won back to back games as a dog and no one wants any piece of the Falcons right now.  Atlanta has won 4 straight in this series.  

I'm taking the Redskins here in this game for several reasons.  The Rams are in one of the toughest travel spots you could ask for.  They are currently playing their 3rd game on the East Coast in 4 weeks.  That is extremely hard for a team. Throw in the fact that I dont think they will be that motivated here as well.  I actually think the Redskins will be motivated because they switched QB's finally and are starting Kyle Allen who will be an upgrade.  This Washington defense is the real deal and can contain the Rams. 

The Bengals here are being very much under valued.  Burrorw has made this team a competitive team and while they may not win a lot of games they will be in a lot of games.  I love the Cincy is coming off their first win of the season giving them plenty of confidence.  Lamar Jackson is also a little banged up right now and definitely isn't 100% here.  Jackson also hasn't covered at home vs the Bengals either.  

Grab this one now as well.  I had the Bills last week in a winner and will. back them again here.  They were just dominating the Rams up 28-3 then some. questionable calls and the Bills pulling their foot off the pedal lead to a crazy comeback but the Bills ended up covering.  The main thing is here is that the Raiders are banged up pretty bad with injuries on defense which they were already weak but losing several OL is a huge concern.  Buffalo is the real deal 

I'm doing this game early here.  I had the Panthers last week in a winner as they won SU as a 6.5 point dog vs the Chargers.   I think now they are getting too much respect.  They were +4 in turnovers and still couldn't pull away which is a concern on offense.  The Cardinals lost to the Lions but. the Cards were -3 in turnovers and still had a chance to win.  I just think this line makes zero sense based on the fact that the Raiders were -3 @ Carolina and won and covered and that was with a healthy McCaffrey.  You're telling me that the Cardinals are actually worse than Oakland considering that McCaffrey is out.  I'm not buying it.

I simply don't believe the Bucs are a TD good over a quality opponent especially with a quality defense like the Chargers have.  Tampa is getting some respect now because they have covered back to back games.  Well, last week they covered against the Broncos who are so banged up.  The week before was extremely lucky as Fournette housed a long run for them to cover against Carolina.  People are quick to forget that SD took the Chiefs down to the wire two weeks ago.  I simply dont think we have seen enough from Brady and company to be laying this amount.  Chargers are live here

I'm taking the Texans here in this game.  I think most will be scared as both teams here are 0-3.  The Texans however have played the toughest schedule in the league losing to the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers.  Vikings have lost to Packers, Colts and Titans.  Vikings defense is so banged up right now and with the whole practice issue this week due to the cover I think that is a big red flag for them here.  This is a get right game for the Texans 

Let's take the Dolphins here tomorrow.  First, Seattle is in a tough spot here with the travel situation and also coming off back to back tough games  against Dallas and Patriots.  The Seahawks are just so injured especially on the defensive side of the ball you can't. trust them.  They weren't even good with the healthy players.  Miami and Fitzpatrick can move the ball on these guys and I like the extra time they have had here playing Thursday the previous week.  

The betting public will be all over the Chiefs here.  When you can grab points with someone like Mahomes and the reigning Super Bowl champs.  KC was extremely lucky to come away with a win Sunday afternoon against the Chargers and their rookie QB in Herbert.  Chargers outgunned the Chiefs by over 50 yards for the game.  I think the Ravens defense will be able to get after Mahomes just like the Chargers did.  I also have a lot of concerns regarding the. Chiefs defense as they are giving up 6.4 yards per play.  They have yet to face an offense like Lamar and company.  I think Baltimore runs up and down the field on them.

The Cowboys are worth a look here as now a lot of momentum has shifted with their crazy comeback against the Falcons. I know, their defense isn't very good at all and they are missing some key players but so is Seattle.  I had Seattle last week in a winner but had to sweat it out as New England and Cam had no problem moving it up and down the field.  Well, this Cowboys team has a ton of firepower on offense.  If all else fails this will set up for a perfect back door situation if we even need it.  I think Dallas is a live dog here.

Interesting game here.  The Panthers suffered a major blow losing their all everything in McCaffrey.  While you can't simply replace a player like that I do think we are getting some extreme value here.  The Panthers had the Bucs on the ropes and actually should have covered as Tampa housed a 50 yard run while just running out the clock.  Carolina also had a rough game with 4 turnovers so the fact they were even in it tells me they are better than people are giving them credit for.  I also think the betting public will be all over the Chargers because of last week as they took the Chiefs down to the wire.  I see this game being played a ton on the ground which means less possessions less big plays and ultimately a lower score keeping the dog alive here.  

This is just one of those weird lines to most.  The Bears are 2-0 and the Falcons are 0-2 yet Atlanta is favored by more than a FG.  Clearly they are telling you they don't believe at all in the Bears and their record.  I clearly dont either.  Bears should have lost week 1 to the Lions as Swift dropped a wide open TD with just seconds left.  Then the Bears get lucky and face the Giants as Barkley tore his ACL in the 2nd quarter yet they could barely pull away.  I think Atlanta has faced two of the best offenses in Seattle and Dallas in the NFC and the Bears won't pose as big of threat.  Atlanta really gave that game away @ Dallas as they were by far the better team.  If the Falcons have any chance at the post season they quite frankly can't lose this game.  I think Atlanta exposes this fraud team in the Bears

I'm going to take the Bills here in what I feel is a big discount.  This Buffalo team isn't getting any respect at all plain and simple.  Their offense with Allen right now is just lighting it up going for over 500 and 400 total yards in both games.  I'm not taking anything away from the Rams as they look improved and I did back them in week 1 against Dallas.  The Bills defense is legit here and will create plenty of pressure.  This is also back to back east coast road games for the Rams which is a difficult task for West coast teams.  

So we have the classic 2-0 team here vs the 0-2 team.  So many will hate on the. Texans and their coach in O'Brien and while I'm not a fan of him either I do think you can semi excuse them.  Look, they lost to the Chiefs and Ravens who IMO are the two best teams in the league so can you really fault them?  Also the Texans held Mahomes and Jackson to 380 yards passing combined.  Thats extremely impressive.  Throw in the fact that this team is desperate and I think we get a huge effort and the relief of competition should help them as well.  Steelers lets face it have faced the Giants and a banged up Bronco team.  

I really like the Raiders here tonight.  I'm just not sold on the Saints here at all especially seeing how the Bucs have looked which was their week 1 opponent.  Brady threw a pick 6 which ultimately was the deciding factor.  Brees IMO has a noodle arm now and just can't throw the ball down the field like he use too.  Throw now in the mix that Thomas is out tonight.  I also think the Raiders playing in Vegas is big even though no fans I still the energy will be high.  

I love the Seahawks here in this game.  I was on them last week vs Atlanta and they came through really controlling the whole game.  I think they are a legit Super Bowl contender especially coming from the NFC.  Wilson has weapons and that is a scary thing with him.  Atlanta did have some big plays but they also do that to a lot of teams with their stud WR's.  I am not putting anything into stock with what the Patriots did.  They covered vs Miami but Fitzpatrick was absolutely horrible and the fact Miami still had a chance to cover before another interception late in the end zone.  Cam's success came on the ground and that won't happen here against Seattle.  His days of making plays with his arm are over.  I think Seattle. rolls here

I like the Falcons here in this matchup.  First, I was against Dallas last Sunday night in a winner and McCarthy just doesn't do it for me.  The offense failed to do anything given all the talent they have.  Falcons came up short against Seattle but they did put up 500 yards of offense.  I think Ryan will expose their secondary here with Ridley and Jones.  Also Dallas suffered some big injuries here as well. Jarwin their TE done for the year, Vander Esch is out and so is starting OL Erving.  Simply to many points for Dallas to be laying here