I love Baylor here this week.  Iowa St is 4-0 for first time in over 20 years.  I think they are a sleeper to make the playoffs but Campbell laying this number just isn’t a spot you want to back them.  Baylor was favored over BYU last week and now neat a full two touchdown dog.  This a bug bounce back spot here.  Iowa St wins but this is close.

Everyone and I mean everyone is on Michigan this week.  They are coming off back to back very tough wins and now a tough travel spot here to Washington I think is the perfect spot to fade them.  Washington is down there is no doubt about it, but this spot here feels like the season saver win in a way.

Utah St off to a bad start but two losses came to USC and Utah.  They are now off the bye and I believe this number is crazy inflated.  They were a shorter dog to Utah.  Recent results are playing a factor here in this line. 

Georgia off the huge emotional comeback loss to Bama I believe is a great spot to back Auburn here.  Coming off that type of comeback and given this number is just too high.  Auburn off back to back losses feels like a great spot to back them here

This line really jumps out to me.  Va Tech off a big effort against Miami and covering as a big dog.  Now they are favored by over a touchdown going clear across the country.  Stanford ended up getting blown out if you look at the final, but this game was 17-7 at half.  Stanford started the game also with three straight turnovers just gifting them points.  

Iowa is off their bye and that doesn’t matter to me as we know they dont shake up anything off that.  Ohio St does have a look ahead to Oregon but this is just a bad matchup.  The only way Iowa can cover here is if the defense creates some turnovers. Iowa is known for their defense but if on the field for so long then I think it will be extra difficult and ultimately will wear down.  Ohio St hangs a number

Love the value here with UCLA  This team has played 3 straight tough game in Indiana, LSU, and Oregon.  They covered against Oregon and LSU in both smaller numbers than 28.  Penn St has a big look ahead next week @USC.  The travel spot is the only thing that has me worried.  I believe the number is baked in because of that though.

I think this BYU team is underrated and being over looked.  Still not getting respect despite covering the first three games this season.  This is a tricky place to play late at night also.  I also believe Kansas St is being crazy over valued because of that blowout win over Zona last Friday.

Norman will be rocking here for this game.  The betting public loves the Vols with their crazy high score at offense.  I think a great spot to fade in a tough spot.  The Sooners and Arnold will be ready.   Unfamiliar territory here also for Tennessee and I believe that matters 

I backed this South Florida team at Bama and it was a one score game with less than 8 minutes left.  Bama late had a couple one possession scores and made it look worse than it was.  Miami is a good team with a high powered offense but South Florida can contain them.  I love that the Bulls have been tested already

I mean it’s now or never right for Florida St.  The fact they are 0-3 favored or a 3-0 team pretty much sums it up for me.  Norvell has a ton of pride in himself and I dont be he will let them quit.  FSU wins this game by 10

Wrong team favored here.  Arkansas 2 weeks ago took Oklahoma St to OT on the road and that loss looks really good at the moment.  I think they were downgraded too much following last weeks close game vs UAB.  It was a look ahead game to this one.

I will Arkansas St here.  Yes, they gave an all out effort last week at Michigan and covered but this is a veteran team and I think they believe they can win here.  Iowa St is off the bye week and a win over rival Iowa the week before.  I believe they sleep walk here and just do enough to get the W

One of classic sandwich spots I look for.  Kentucky off a heart breaking loss to Georgia with Ole Miss on deck.  I also love that this is an early start following that loss Kentucky.  They still might have the hangover.  

I’m taking Kansas here and I believe they will be focused.  They are back to back losses to UNLV and Illinois but those teams haven’t lost yet.  Kansas I’m trusting they will be highly motivated here following those and to get on track entering conference play.  

I’m taking ODU here this game.  First you have to significantly upgrade their performance vs South Carolina almost beating them based upon what the Gamecocks did last week vs Kentucky in a play I had South Carolina.  VA Tech to me is a tough one still as most thought they would be a sneaky ACC team but then they lose to Vanderbilt in the first game.  Good value on ODU

I’m taking the point here with Nevada.  I don’t necessarily like them for the upset but i think given the spot the Gophers will be looking ahead to rival Iowa and putting this game in cruise control.  Most will overlook the Wolfpack here because they are 1-2.  Their two losses have came by a combined 8 points.  Gophers aren’t a high scoring offense either.  I see a 24-13 type of game

I faded Bama last week as South Florida was my top play easy winner.  I will fade them again here as people are giving this Bama team way too much respect.  It’s clear they are down and now on a true road test I believe this is a perfect spot to fade.  Wisconsin is going to be like Nebraska both 2nd year coaches and they will continue to improve as the season goes.  Too many points for Bama here.

I believe this is the buy low spot on Florida St. Yes, they have had a brutal start to the season losing two conference games as double digit favorites.  They are coming off the bye week which was much needed for them.  I’m trusting Norvell to have them ready with a massive bounce back

Another game I like the spot.  This is big brother coming to town here.  Tulsa just lost to a good ArKansas St team but covered in doing so.  Oklahoma St went into OT last week vs Arkansas.  I really question how good Arkansas is as most have them as a 5 win team at max.  Oklahoma St Beni g ranked plays a factor in this line also.

I love Daniel’s the new Commanders QB but he isnt set up for success out of the gate.  They already traded his best offensive weapon in Dotson.  Commanders D is a weak area also.  The Bucs are a veteran group and Baker isn’t getting any respect here.  Off the radar game for week 1 but Bucs win easy 

I’m really down on this Saints team and I don’t believe they have done a lot for improvements.  Derek Carr isn’t the answer and his struggles in the red zone are so bad.  Carolina will be an interesting team but I’m trusting some major improvement in Bryce Young.  They have surrounded him with better weapons and OL protection.  Division rivals as dog week 1 are so profitable.  Saints laying more than a FG to anyone would you like it.

Wrong team is favored here in my opinion and  maybe I’m missing something.  Look the Vikings have household names across the board leading with Jefferson.  Are people forgetting it’s Sam Darnold favored on the road.  I don’t get this at all.  Giants did lose Barkley yes but have great WR weapons.  I still have doubts on Vikings defense, but it’s mainly playing against Darnold as a road favorite.

I’m laying here with the Falcons week 1.  Yes, there are plenty of questions especially seeing if Kirk is healthy and ready to go.  The Steelers and Tomlin getting respect because they were a playoff team and Tomlin is great as a dog.  I believe we see a whole different Falcons team this season with a new coach and actually getting the play makers involved.  Russell Wilson is starting and we have seen the decline year after after year now.  

Favorite game of the week.  There is so much love and hype surrounding this Texans team.  They deserve a lot of credit going from worst to first and yes Stroud is the real deal.  Favored by a FG on road against healthy division rival? No chance.  This is saying they would be a touchdown favorite.  The love is out of control.  Richardson is healthy and the Colts defense is solid.  Texans are team with targets on their backs this season.  Colts win outright

Love the spot here for this Utah St team.  The Aggie’s are nothing special here but this is a play against USC and the spot.  USC was in a dog fight last week vs LSU and they won.  I give them a ton of credit as they looked improved a ton on defense.  However, I wasn’t impressed with LSU and strongly believe that team is vastly overrated.  Throw in the ultimate sandwich spot with USC having their first big 10 on deck vs Michigan, 28.5 is too many 

It’s definitely not my style to lay massive points but I believe Oklahoma puts a number on Houston.  I faded Houston last week taking UNLV in an easy winner.  The Rebels are a solid Mountain West team but bring no where the fire power OU has on offense.  The Sooners had no issue hanging 51 last week and I don’t see any reason how they don’t score over 40 against a very bad Houston team.

This line has gotten out of hand.  Remember teams are never are great as they look and bad as they look in week 1.  Tennessee destroyed Chattanooga covering a massive number and North Carolina St didn’t look great.  However first road game for the Vols and the Wolfpack are my sleeper in the Acc.  NC won 9 games last season so they aren’t a complete joke.  The betting public has inflated this number way too much

I love South Florida here this week.  This team is my pick to win the American.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 7 games.  They held this Bama team to 17 points last year so the familiarity helps here.  Bama also is getting a ton of respect for their shut out over WKU.  I love the spot here also as Bama has Wisconsin and Georgia on deck. 

Taking Northern Illinois here this weekend catching a massive number.  Look I wasn’t impressed with ND at all.  If A&M had just an average QB they win that game fairly easily.  Nail is one of the better teams in the Mac and they will be up for challenge.  NIU defense can keep it close.  I see a 35-17 type of game

I like the Gamecocks here this week catching too many from a Kentucky who is very similar.  South Carolina has won the past two meetings and even though it’s on the road I still believe they will hang.  We are getting little extra value because of how bad SC looked in game 1 Vs Old Dominion.  I expect them to look a lot sharper against a SEC opponent 

I am taking Cuse here in this game.  First, I was against Cuse last week in a winner vs Ohio.  I think because of that we are getting some value.  The most important reason is because we are getting crazy overreacting here with Georgia Tech.  Look give them credit but with how bad Florida St looked again that win doesn’t hold near enough wait it did.  Cuse would have been favored here at beginning of season.  Too much bias here with GT

This game wasn't really on my radar until Georgia Tech pulled that shocking upset last week over Florida St on the game winning FG.  Huge win for the Yellow Jackets, but teams that come out of the gate like that and now less a far less opponent, it screams a little let down situation here and this is asking Georgia Tech to blow them out.  I wasn't impressed with the offense granted FSU defense has something to do with it.  Georgia St won 7 games last season and return 11 starters.  I don't like this team but given the spot here and the amount of points this is great value for the dog.

This one really stood out to me here in a classic dog spot I love to play early in the season.  We are getting a ton of points with a very good and experienced team in Fresno St.  They won 9 games last season and return 14 starters with 8 being on offense.  Michigan is a big question mark to me this season losing literally everyone from the National Title game.  Yes, they have the talent but it will be a whole new system with Harbaugh leaving and that is just difficult.  The experience that Fresno has on offense here is key against a solid defense.  I see this being a two touchdown game.

Until Notre Dame starts winning the big games, I can't back them.  I also think they are overrated coming into the season.  Just 8 returning starters from last season granted some transfers will fill some void of that.  I like Freeman as HC but they don't win the big games.  This is a huge test for them on the road @ the 12th man in Texas A&M.  The Aggies here are one of my sleepers in the SEC also.  A big reason for them being underrated to me is the fact that Jimbo is finally out the door.  He held the talent on this team back so bad.  They were 7-6 with 3 losses to Bama, Ole Miss & Tennessee by a combined 14 points.  Fresh start with team will do wonders and I think they make a big opening weekend statement 

Maybe this is a square dog here ere week 1 with the Rebels traveling pretty far here to play Houston, but I like this team and what first year Coach Odom did with the Rebels making the MW title game.  They return 11 starters and this is by no means a hostile environment here in Houston.  The Cougars to me are the worst team in the Big 12.  They return 6 starters from a team that went 4-8.  I do like the hire of Willie Fritz, but in first year coaches taking over a bad team it simply takes time.  Rebels win this outright.

I think Georgia Southern is a sneaky team here in the Sun Belt this season especially since James Madison has left.  This will be the third season for Clay Helton who has completely gutted the old system of play.  He knows this is a massive game and he returns 8 starters on defense which I really like for them here.  Huge opportunity game to make a statement.  I like the Eagles to make this a competitive but also fun game to watch.  

The Bobcats won 10 games last season, but they have lost a ton.  Their stud QB which seemed like forever was Rourke and he's no longer there.  They aren't getting the respect though here facing a bottom tier ACC team in Syracuse laying this many points?  Case lands Mccrod the QB transfer from Ohio St, but is that really going to make a difference?  Ohio will for sure take a step back this season, but out of the gate against an very questionable Cuse team?  This is too many points. 

I am really high on the Hurricanes this season.  They return a total of 10 starters but a lot of transfers with a ton of experience.  Cam Ward their starting QB is one who will right away step in a help them in an area they were lacking.  Cristobal's time here hasn't been a success so far but I believe they take massive steps forward this season given that the ACC is down as a whole.  

Florida does return 14 starters but this team won 5 games last season and two of the 5 were against Charlotte and McNeese St.  I think Napier is in over his head here and believe he doesn't make it through the season as HC.  I don't like this Florida team at all, it will be one I'm looking to fade often and early.