Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins.

This is the opener of a three-game set between cellar dwellers. The Marlins broke a six-game slide with a win over St. Louis last time out. Pittsburgh enters having lost seven straight (overall the Pirates are just 6-18 in their last 24.) The visitors hand the ball to Steven Brault (2-1, 5.05 ERA) who has looked decent of late by posting a 1.72 ERA over his last three starts. The home side counters with Trevor Richards (3-6, 3.31) who is 3-1 with a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and who owns a solid 3.17 ERA in 20 career starts at home. 

Key Trends:

- Pirates are 0-7 in their last seven on the road.

- The Fish are 5-2 in their last seven home games vs. teams with losing records.

The verdict: The Marlins are also 4-1 in Richards’ last five starts. All things considered, I believe this is great line value on the home side!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under D-Backs/Nats.

Two great pitchers go head to head in this one. Everything points to a “duel” in my opinion. Arizona scored the 5-0 victory last night and I believe runs will be at a premium for both clubs this evening. The Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.54 ERA) has struggled with the Nationals in the past, but he enters on top form, most recently giving up two runs with ten K’s over six innings in a win over Toronto. The home side hands the ball to ace Max Scherzer (4-5, 2.83) who enters off a gem vs. the Padres on Saturday, going seven scoreless (note that Scherzer is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, three walks and 30 K’s over his last 21 innings, spanning a three start stretch.) Scherzer is also 29-21 with a 2.91 ERA in 72 career starts at Nationals Park.

Key Trends:

- Arizona has seen the total go under in 20 of its last 30 following a victory.

- Washington has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 vs. teams with winning records.

The verdict: I think Ray and Scherzer will battle deep into this one. Play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

This is the rubber match of a three-game set and I think the home side will build off yesterday’s 7-4 victory. Scott Kingery had two home runs yesterday for Philadelphia and he’s now hitting .324 on the season with ten doubles, one triple, seven homers and 18 RBI’s. The home side hands the ball to Zach Eflin (6-5, 2.88 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Reds last Friday. In two career starts vs. the D-Backs, Eflin owns a respectable 3.86 ERA. The D-Backs had won five in a row before yesterday’s setback and I thick they’re primed for another letdown here as well. The visitors go with Merrill Kelly (6-6, 4.12) who has looked decent of late, but who I think is simply in the wrong lace at the wrong time here. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is just 14-18 (-2.7 units) this year following a loss.

- Philadelphia is 23-11 as a favorite at home.

- The Phillies are 20-15 in their last 35 following a victory.

The verdict: I like Eflin to continue his strong run at home and to help his team score the series victory. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Padres.

Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he hasn’t been at his best over his last two starts, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15) is coming off a decent outing, giving up one run over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Fish on May 30th, but I still think he’s in over his head here. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is 9-6 (+3 units) already this year after two or more consecutive losses.

- San Francisco is only 11-20 at home.

- The Giants are a poor 19-25 vs. right-handed starters.

The verdict: Expect Paddack to go deep and for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Padres/Giants.

Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he hasn’t been at his best over his last two starts, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15) is coming off a decent outing, giving up one run over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Fish on May 30th, but I still think he’s in over his head here. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego has seen the total go over the number in four of five this year as a road favorite.

- The Padres have seen the total soar over in 12 of 18 this year in all games when the total is either 8 or 8.5. 

- San Francisco has seen the total go over in both games it’s played in so far this year off two straight home losses vs. a division rival.

The verdict: Two hungry teams. This number is low, play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Tigers/Royals.

The Royals have gone a disappointing 0-14-2 in the past 16 in this series. So far Detroit is 5-1 at home vs. the Royals, but this is the first time the teams will meet in Kansas City. Detroit won’t be lacking for motivation here though either after losing three straight series itself. Detroit goes with Spencer Turnbull (3-5, 3.01 ERA), while the home side goes with Jakob Junis (4-6, 5.63.) Turnbull has faced KC twice already this year and has given up three earned runs over 13 innings. Note that Junis is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA vs. Detroit in eight starts vs. Detroit. 

Key Trends:

- Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of seven this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Kansas City has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 this season vs. clubs with losing records.

The verdict: Both teams enter off blowout losses. I expect these pitchers to battle deep and for the opener of this series to fall well below the posted number. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles.

Toronto has lost 14 of its last 17 and it’s hitting just .161 with RISP over its last 112 at bats. Toronto hands the ball to Trent Thorton (1-4, 4.73 ERA), who will be opposed by Baltimore’s John Means (5-4, 2.67.) Means has been “on fire” for a while now and I expect him to carry that momentum over here in this favorable spot (note that Means is 4-3 with a 2.77 ERA over his last nine starts.) 

Key Trends:

- Toronto is a terrible 6-12 vs. the division. 

- The Blue Jays are only 11-20 on the road.

- The Orioles are 44-30 (+7.1 unit) in their last 77 home games with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: Considering the form of these starters and line-ups, I think that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Orioles!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under D-Backs/Phillies.

The Diamondbacks exploded for a franchise record eight home runs in yesterday’s 13-8 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice here. The D-Backs go with Jon Duplantier (1-0, 3.27 ERA) and he’s gone at least five innings in his first two starts. Philadelphia looks to snap a two-game slide by handing the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29) who has struggled over his last two starts, but who will look to rebound vs. Arizona, a club in which he’s gone a sharp 4-3 with a 2.33 ERA in nine career appearances against.

Key Trends:

- Arizona has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 after two or more straight victories.

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under in six of its last eight at home when the total is either 9 or 9.5. 

The verdict: I like these starters to battle deep and after yesterday’s slug-fest, I look for this total to fall under once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Marlins run line.

Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for St. Louis, while the visitors go with Michael Wacha (3-2, 6.30.) Alcantara comes in on top form, having allowed just one run over his past two starts, posting a tiny 0.69 ERA over his last 13 innings of work. Wacha’s had success vs. the Fish in the past, but he’s been terrible overall this year, actually losing his spot in the rotation after allowing seven runs to the Royals on May 22nd. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is just 3-7 (-6.3 units) this season after scoring one run or less.

- Miami is already 3-2 (+4.4 units) this year after three straight losses vs. a division rival.

The verdict: These starters are moving in opposite directions and the Marlins have been playing much better as team overall as well. In a contest which see being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the Marlins on the run line!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under A’s/Rangers.

Texas won 10-5 and 3-1 in yesterday’s double header. I think that Sunday’s game sets up as more of a “duel” as well. The visitors hand the ball to Frankie Montas (7-2, 2.83 ERA), who has gone 3-0 over his last six starts, most recently going six scoreless in a 4-2 win over the Angels on Tuesday (note as well that all three victories have been on the road.) Overall Montas is a solid 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five games, including two starts, vs. Texas in his career. Drew Smyly (1-4, 7.93) has been a disaster for the Rangers this year, but he catches a break here facing this “on again, off again” A’s offense. 

Key Trends:

- Oakland has seen the total dip under the number in 11 of 17 vs. teams with winning records this season.

- Texas has seen the total go under in 16 of 19 this year after two or more consecutive victories.

The verdict: I like Montas to go deep and for this total to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Toronto won two of three over the Yanks earlier in the week, but it’s dropped the first two games of this interleague contest and I think that the D-Backs lay the hammer down in the finale as well. Arizona has won 8-2 and 6-0 so far and I predict another lop-sided destruction here as well. Robbie Ray (4-3, 3.62 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Clayton Richard (0-1, 3.55.) Ray has lost two straight, despite allowing only three runs over seven innings to the Dodgers on Monday. Ray is also 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last five road starts. Richard faced Arizona three times last year and he’d go 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is already 11-7 (+4 units) this year after a win by four runs or more.

- Toronto is a terrible 1-5 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range already this season.

The verdict: I think Ray has a big advantage in this match-up and I like the D-Backs to carry over their recent momentum at the plate in this favorable matchup. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Nats/Padres.

Last night’s game ended up going “over” the number in the Padres walk off 5-4 victory, but I expect much more of a “duel” on Saturday. Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) is 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA in ten starts vs. the Friars. Eric Lauer (5-4, 4.18) is faced the Nats twice (both no decisions) and has posted a tiny 2.31 ERA. Lauer in fact comes in on top form, having allowed just five runs with three walks and 17 K’s over his last four starts (which equals to a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP.) 

Key Trends:

- Washington has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two straight one run losses.

- San Diego has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 17 after two straight wins by two runs or less.

The verdict: After last night’s “slug-fest,” expect these competent hurlers to go deep. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) is 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA in ten starts vs. the Friars. Eric Lauer (5-4, 4.18) is faced the Nats twice (both no decisions) and has posted a tiny 2.31 ERA. But after dropping the first two games of this series, I think Washington responds finally in this important contest. And the numbers/trends support that! 

Key Trends:

- Washington is 49-31 (+9 units) after two or more consecutive losses.

- San Diego is still 47-84 (-15.5 units) the L2 years as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: Lauer’s been great of late, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Lay the reasonable mid-sized price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals.

The Cards came into this series sitting 2.5 games back of the Cubs. The Cards lost yesterday’s opener 3-1, but I think they’ll bounce back on Saturday night. The home side goes with the volatile Jon Lester (4-4, 3.32 ERA), while the visitors go with Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.76.) Flaherty may be only 1-2 in six games vs. the Cubs, but he sports a very respectable 3.70 ERA in those contests. Yes Lester is 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA in 18 career starts vs. St. Louis, but I think he’ll have a hard time following in Cole Hamel’s footsteps. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is still 6-1 (+5. units) this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- The Cardinals are already 5-1 (+4.1 units) this year after scoring four runs or less in three straight games (and 40-15 in the same position over the L2 years.) 

- Chicago is a money-burning 11-11 (-2.2 units) this season vs. the division.

The verdict: I think the revenge minded Cardinals bounce back in this important game!

Ricky’s 6* play on the LA Dodgers.

The Giants won 2-1 as a massive underdog last night, but I think LA bounces back in this favorable pitching match-up on Saturday night. The home side goes with Jeff Samardzija (3-4, 3.61 ERA) who had a decent start to open June after a terrible May. The Shark has a 1-4, 3.59 ERA lifetime record vs. the Dodgers over nine appearances. Rich Hill (2-1, 2.25) gets the nod for the visitors and he enters off a gem, limiting the Phillies to no runs over seven innings with nine K’s on Sunday (note that Hill is 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA in 14 career starts against San Francisco as well.) 

Key Trends:

- LA is 13-7 (+2.2 units) this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher.

- San Francisco is just 7-12 (-2.9 units) this year as a home underdog.

- The Giants are a poor 7-12 vs. southpaws this season.

The verdict: Look for Hill to easily out duel the volatile Samardzija and lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/Mets.

I had a big underdog play on the Rockies last night and they came through with the 5-1 victory. I think another “duel” is in order on Saturday night between Steven Matz (4-4, 3.97 ERA) for the Mets, vs. Jon Gray (5-4, 4.11) for the Rockies. Matz looks to bounce back after after allowing five runs over six innings in a loss to the D-Backs, while Gray earned the win over the Blue Jays last time out, going seven scoreless. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado has seen the total go under in four of five already this season after allowing two runs or less over two straight games.

- The Mets have seen the total dip under in four of five already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5.

The verdict: These pitchers have struggled vs. their respective opponents tonight in the past, but I think the stage is set for a “duel” finally. This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Giants on the run line.

Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 8.08 ERA) goes for the home side. Clearly he won’t be lacking for motivation as he tries to turn his career around tonight. Clayton Kershaw (5-0, 3.20) gets the nod for the visiting side, as the crafty veteran continues to find ways to win despite not being the same pitcher he was three or four years ago. But note that LA has an OPS that is 52 points lower vs. southpaws than righties this season, which sets up well for the focused Pomeranz (note as well that Pomeranz faced the Dodgers in his season opener and gave up only two runs over six innings.) 

The verdict: Bruce Bochy’s team won’t be in the playoffs this year, but I think it rallies in the opener of this one. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I’m going to lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the Giants on the run line!

Ricky’s 9* play on on the Colorado Rockies.

I’ve made a play on the Mets in each of their last two games (both wins,) but I think the home side takes a step back here despite sending its ace to the hill. Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.49 ERA) goes for the home side, while the visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (4-4, 5.33.) Note though that New York is just 9-16 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Colorado comes in on top form. The Rockies opened the year by going 3-12, but Colorado has since gone 29-17, including 13-11 vs. clubs with a record of .500 or better. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado is 15-11 (+17.6 units) in its last 26 as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range.

- New York is 13-16 (-5.6 units) this season following a victory.

The verdict: Both teams enter of victories. Each starter has enjoyed success vs. their opponent today, but I think the above trends swing the value in favor of the surging visiting side. Play on the Rockies!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Texas Rangers.

These teams have split the first two games of this three game set, but I think the home side is worth the price of admission in the finale. Texas carries its momentum over from last night’s 2-1, 12-inning victory. Texas has now won six of its last eight. The home side goes with Arial Jurado (2-2, 2.43 ERA) who has performed well of late and who won his only start vs. the O’s, giving up two runs over five frames. The visitors go with David Hess (1-7, 7.36) who got shelled for seven runs over four innings in his last start vs. the toothless Giants.

Key Trends:

- Baltimore is just 4-18 vs. teams with winning records.

- Texas is now 9-3 (+5.2 units) this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher.

The verdict: I like Jurado to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins.

Miami is rolling and I look for it to continue that momentum this afternoon. The Fish aim for the three game sweep today after yesterday’s 8-3 victory. The Marlins are 13-5 over their last 18. Miami is red hot at the plate, outscoring the Brewers 24-3 over the first two games. I find no reason for that trend not to continue today. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA), who already has 80 K’s over 61 frames of work this year. The home side goes with Freddy Peralta (2-2, 5.68), who’s last three appearances have been in relief.

Key Trends:

- Miami is now 9-8 (+9.7 units) this season as an underdog in the +175 to +200 range.

- Milwaukee is now just 3-5 in its last eight vs. southpaws.

The verdict: I think Smith will out duel Peralta, who was called into action in an over night change for Brandon Woodruff and I expect the Marlins hot play at the plate to carry over as well. Great value on Miami!

Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Last night’s home starter Dakota Hudson will make this Thursday afternoon start. Hudson (4-3, 3.94 ERA) went 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts in May. Note that over Hudson’s last three outings he’s pitched at least six frames and given up two runs or fewer. Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.97) was scheduled to start last night as well for the Reds, but he’ll also get pushed over. Note that he was a poor 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in the month of May.

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is just 5-11 (-4.3 units) this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- The Cardinals are 11-3 (+6.8 units) this year with a home money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: Recent form displayed by these starters makes the Cardinals well worth the price of admission this afternoon!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

I had a play on the Mets last night and I think they’ll lay the hammer down here as well. New York will try to win this series by handing the ball to Zack Wheeler (5-3, 4.68 ERA), while the visitors go with Shaun Anderson. Jason Vargas worked a complete game in last night’s 7-0 victory, giving the Mets’ bullpen a much-needed break. This is an important angle working in favor of the home side this afternoon. 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is now just 9-13 as a road underdog.

- New York is now 6-3 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: I like Wheeler to take a page out of Vargas’s book and as mentioned off the top, the Mets bullpen comes in fresh here. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Mets.

I had a play on the Mets yesterday and while that pick came up short, I think the home side bounces back on Wednesday. After three-straight victories I believe the Giants have a predictable letdown here. The visitors go with Tyler Beede (0-1, 7.82 ERA), while the home side goes with Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.46.) This is Beede’s seventh major league appearance and fifth start. Vargas though comes in under the radar in my opinion. Note that he most recently allowed one run over seven innings in an unfortunate 2-0 loss to the Dodgers (and also note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in five career starts vs. San Francisco.) 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is still just 4-9 (-4.1 units) as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- New York is 15-9 at home this year.

- The Mets are already 9-3 this season after having lost five or six of their last seven games.

The verdict: I think Vargas is the correct call in this matchup. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Sox/Nats.

Despite both Dylan Covey (1-4, 4.73 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (1-6, 4.47) having gotten out to such inconsistent starts to the 2019 campaign, I still think that this number is a little high. The Nationals have now won three straight, but they had to rally from a 5-0 deficit to win yesterday’s opener 9-5. Note as well that Sanchez comes in off his best start of the season, going six shutout innings in a win over the Braves on May 29th (note that Sanchez has a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts.) Covey was 0-10 with a 5.99 ERA over his previous 14 starts dating back to last season, but he also comes in off a “gem,” walking one and striking out five and allowing one run over six innings in a win over the Indians on Friday.

Key Trends:

- Chicago has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last 11 interleague contests when the total in the contest is 10.5 or higher.

- Washington has seen the total dip under the posted number in 12 of its last 19 home games when the total is 10.5 or higher.

The verdict: These improving starters battle into the latter frames and this one stays well below this sky-high number. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Fish have been playing better of late, but I think they’ll come up short here in this clear mismatch on the mound. Marlins’ starter Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.99 ERA) is the biggest Jekyll and Hyde hurler in the game, posting a 1.84 ERA in five starts at home, compared to an atrocious 8.26 ERA in six road starts. Milwaukee counters with Chase Anderson (3-0, 3.31 ERA) who is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts vs. Miami. 

Key Trends:

- Miami is just 10-17 vs. teams with winning records.

- Milwaukee is already 3-0 this year as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range.

The verdict: Based upon Lopez’s horrible road record, I think Anderson could/should in fact be a much bigger/larger fav in this particular matchup. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

The Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.01 ERA) goes up against the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.90) in this one. Both teams have been terrible so far this season. But after earning just their second series win in their last nine tries on Sunday by beating Baltimore, I think the Giants have a predictable letdown here. I think the starters are a “wash,” but the difference is in the numbers/trends.

Key Trends:

- As note that San Francisco is just 10-21 (-9.1 units) as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range.

- The Giants are just 7-16 (-8.4 units) this year after a victory.

- New York is 5-2 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

- The Mets are 4-1 in their last five when playing with a day off.

The verdict: I think the hungry home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

The Twins are 40-18 on the year and at some point, they’re going to come crashing back down to Earth. I think that slide begins tonight. The hosts won’t be lacking for motivation either after dropping ten of their past 14. The visitors go with Devin Smeltzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who gave up three hits while striking out seven without walking a batter over six scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Brewers in his MLB debut last Tuesday. Like the Twins, I think there’s only one way Smeltzer’s performance can go after that gem. The Tribe go with Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.67) who is 2-0 over his last three starts and who owns a 1-0, 4.58 ERA record in four career appearances vs. the Twins. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota 51-57 the L2 years after playing four or more straight road contests.

- Cleveland is already 9-5 (+4.3 units) after having lost three of its last four games this season.

The verdict: I like Bieber to bounce back at home and I look for Smeltzer to take a big step back. Lay this very reasonable price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Detroit Tigers.

The Rays are over-priced here in my opinion. Yes Blake Snell (3-4, 3.06 ERA) is better than Ryan Carpenter (0-2, 7.58), but Tampa enters having lost three straight. Snell has an 0-1 record in two career starts vs. the Tigers. Carpenter comes in off his best start since being called up from Triple-A, allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Orioles. 

Key Trends:

- Tampa Bay is 40-44 (-7.4 units) the L2 years after a loss by two runs or less.

- The Tigers are already 5-3 (+4.1 units) this season after playing six or more consecutive road games.

The verdict: After playing nine straight on the road, I think the hungry Tigers off great value to steal Game 1 of this series from the over-priced visiting side. Play on Detroit!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

Pittsburgh just played 27 games in 27 days. It then had Monday off. Now the Braves come to town and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. The Braves’ Max Fried (7-3, 3.19 ERA) will be opposed by the Pirates’ Steven Brault (2-1, 5.87.) Brault’s been decent in a starters role early (1-0, 5.54), but over 19 career trips to the hill in the big leagues he’s gone a pedestrian 3-4 with an elevated 4.87 ERA. He comes off a decent outing vs. the Reds, but I think he’s in over his head here. Fried’s three start win streak came to an end after allowing four runs over six innings vs. the Nationals, but I think he settles down here again in this favorable position. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is already 4-0 as a road favorite of -125 or higher this season.

- The Braves are 10-5 (+4.1 units) vs. southpaws this year.

- Pittsburgh is just 4-8 as a home underdog. 

The verdict: I think Brault struggles vs. this hard-hitting Braves’ line-up. At the same time, there’s no reason not to think that Fried can’t get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Phillies/Padres.

This is an important series for both teams. The Padres are in a “free fall” right now, having lost five of their last seven, including two in a row to the lowly Marlins. The Phillies sit atop the NL East. The visitors look to keep the good times rolling, while the home side is eager to get off the schneid. Unfortunately for both line-ups they run into a couple of red hot hurlers on the mound and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect them to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola is is 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA over his last five starts, while Padres’ starter Eric Lauer is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his last three contests. 

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 24 on the road.

- San Diego has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 29 at home.

- The Padres have seen the total go under in four of their last five as a home dog.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Red Sox/Yankees.

David Price (2-2, 2.83 ERA) goes up against CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) in this one. Price has been historically destroyed by the Yanks, but he comes into this one top form going 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. Sabathia has plenty of success though vs. the Red Sox, who went a poor 2 for 14 with RISP yesterday. 

Key Trends:

- Boston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 vs. teams with winning records.

- New York has seen total go under in seven of its last ten vs. southpaws.

The verdict: I expect these competent veterans to battle deep into the latter innings. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Padres.

Tyler Richards (2-5, 3.82 ERA) and Matt Strahm (2-4, 3.21) are a “wash” here in my opinion. Miami’s been playing a lot better of late, but I think the Padres salvage the finale and take this three-game series vs. their lowly visitor. San Diego needs a win to prevent from falling below .500 at home and I expect it to make the most of this favorable match-up.

Key Trends:

- Miami is still only 9-19 as a +150 or higher underdog this year.

- San Diego is 12-7 in its last 19 as a home favorite of -125 to -175.

The verdict: Everything points to a lop-sided destruction in this one. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under under Mets/Diamondbacks.

Arizona won 6-5 in 11 innings yesterday, breaking a five-game losing streak. The Mets have lost four of six on their seven-game road trip and they’ll be desperate here as well. The visitors go with Steven Matz (4-3, 3.44 ERA)w, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly (4-6, 4.83.) Matz has posted two straight quality starts and he’s not given up more than three runs in any of his past six starts. Kelly has struggled of late, but note that he’s 2-2 with a sharp 2.64 ERA in five starts at Chase Field this season. 

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 day games.

- Arizona has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 vs. teams with losing records.

The verdict: I think these competent starters battle deep and after yesterday’s marathon, all signs point to a lower-scoring “duel” on Sunday afternoon. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Cards.

St. Louis is desperate to make up ground vs. the Cubs and it has a chance to sweep this three-game series today. The home side goes with Adam Wainwright (4-5, 4.94 ERA), who enters off a loss to Philadelphia, allowing four runs over six innings with a season-high ten K’s. Wainwright is 15-11 with a 4.16 ERA in 46 games vs. Chicago. The visitors won’t be rolling over though obviously as they try to salvage the finale. The Cubs go with Cole Hamels (4-1, 4.02) who is 4-5 with a tiny 2.67 ERA in 14 career starts vs. St. Louis. 

Key Trends:

- The Cubs have seen the total go under in six of nine already this year after having lost four or five of their last six games.

- The Cardinals have seen the total go under in seven of ten already this season with a home money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: I think these veterans battle deep into the latter frames and I expect this total to stay well below the number. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

The visitors go with Max Scherzer (2-5, 3.26 ERA). The Nationals come in with plenty of momentum after winning six of their last eight, including yesterday’s 5-2 win. Note that Washington is 9-1 in its last ten at Great American Ball Park. Scherzer has been the victim of some back luck this year, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart (note that Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati.) The Reds go with Sonny Gray (2-4, 3.54) who has been sharp of late, but who owns a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA in four career starts vs. the Nats.

Key Trends:

- Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road games following a win by two runs or more.

- Cincinnati is just 3-6 (-2.4 units) this season as a home underdog.

The verdict: Look for Scherzer to finally get the support he’s been lacking and expect the Nationals to keep the foot on the gas. At least for one more game!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.71 ERA) faces off against Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.78) on Saturday night and I think the home side is the correct call in this matchup. Greinke enters on fire, having posted a 2.14 ERA in the month of may, not giving up more than three earned runs in any of his past 11 outings. Note that deGrom owns a 5.33 ERA in five outing with Wilson Ramos working as catcher as well this season. 

Key Trends:

- The Mets are just 6-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this season.

- Arizona is already 9-5 (+4.7 units) this season after having lost four or five of its last six games.

The verdict: Arizona comes in desperate to break a five-game slide after New York scored two runs in the eighth inning in Friday’s 5-4 series opening victory. I expect Greinke to outlast deGrom and I look for the D-Backs to finally “get off the schneid.” Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 9* play on the over Astros/A’s.

The A’s are expected to welcome back Khris Davis tonight as they’ll look to avenge last night’s last 3-2 loss. The Astros hand the ball to Justin Verlander (8-2, 2.38 ERA), who has struggled vs. Davis throughout his career in Houston, allowing the slugger to go 6 of 11 (.545) with a double and four home runs among six hits. The home side goes with Brett Anderson (6-3, 3.86) who is 1-3 with a 6.97 ERA over five games, including four starts vs. the Astros. 

Key Trends:

- Houston has seen the total go over in 17 of its last 29 as a -150 or higher favorite.

- Oakland has seen the total go over in six of its last eight as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: I think this one sneaks over late. Play the over!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Detroit Tigers. 

The Tigers lost the services of slugger Miguel Cabrera in yesterday’s 8-2 victory at Atlanta, but I think the visitors still offer great value to pull off the upset here vs. what I feel to be an overpriced Mike Soroka and Braves team on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers have won three straight. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.18 ERA) who has thrown better than that his win/loss record would indicate, as he’s given up two earned runs in three of his last four outings. Soroka (5-1, 1.07) hasn’t given up more than one earned run in eight starts this year. He’s been unbelievable, but I think these numbers are unsustainable and I believe that regression is imminent.  

Key Trends:

- Detroit is 7-5 (+7 units) in its last 12 as road dog in the +150 to +200 range.

- The Braves are a poor 4-5 (-4.3 units) as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: I think Soroka finally suffers a letdown here and I expect the hungry Norris to take advantage. Play on the Tigers!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Texas Rangers.

Lance Lynn (6-4, 4.66 ERA) has looked much better over the last month and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here vs. Homer Bailey and the Royals on Saturday afternoon. Bailey (4-5, 5.79) opposed Lynn last month and was rocked for six runs off eight hits and four walks over four innings of work. Lynn would give up one run off six hits with one walk over seven innings in the 16-1 victory. 

Key Trends: 

- Kansas City is 7-16 (-5.9 units) as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Texas is 17-9 (+13.1 units) at home.

The verdict: In this mismatch of epic proportions, I look for the Lynn and the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday’s upset loss and wrap up another series victory. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres.

This is a big game and series for the Padres tonight with ten straight in front of the home town crowd. Miami is just 8-17 on the road this year. The Fish hand the ball to Caleb Smith (3-2, 3.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Joey Lucchesi (3-3, 4.25). Over his last three starts Lucchesi has posted a 2.84 ERA and tiny 0.684 WHIP. Smith has enjoyed success against the Friars in the past, but that was then and this is now. I think the Padres make the most of this favorable matchup.

Key Trends:

- Miami is just 10-24 this season following a loss.

- San Diego is 13-6 (+7.8 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest.

The verdict: I think Miami’s inconsistencies on the road continues vs. the focused/determined Padres. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Cards.

Two pitchers who would gladly use a “mulligan” on their early 2019 performance collide on Friday night. Motivation won’t be lacking from either and I believe that fact will help in driving tonight’s total under the posted number. Chicago makes its first trip to St. Louis this season after sweeping the Cards in three games at home earlier in the year. Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.76 ERA) comes in off his strongest outing of the year for the Cards, holding the Braves to three runs over seven frames while striking out a season-high nine and walking none. Also note that Mikolas is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in six career games vs. the Cubs. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 already this season after allowing two runs or less.

- St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 20 following a victory.

The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the White Sox.

There’s no taking the foot off the gas for the White Sox, who sit one game behind the Tribe for second place in the standings. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trent to continue here. Chicago has won six of its last 11, while the Indians have lost eight of 12. Also note that Indians’ starting pitcher Trevor Bauer is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA over his last five starts. White Sox’ starter Dylan Covey is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA lifetime vs. Cleveland.

Key Trends:

- Note though that the Indians are just 6-7 (-4.2 units) already this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher.

- The White Sox are already 5-3 (+3.6 units) after scoring eight or more runs this season.

The verdict: I like the surging home side to continue its progression and take advantage of the scuffling Bauer. Play on the White Sox!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Rangers.

Starting pitching hasn’t been a point of strength for either club this year, but both Danny Duffy and Ariel Jurado have been “better than advertised” so far this season and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel” again on Thursday night, after the Royals 4-2 win on Thursday. Duffy (3-1, 3.12 ERA) and Jurado (1-2, 2.28) have been bright spots on poor rotations and I find no reason not to expect them to continue to progress in this match-up.  

Key Trends:

- KC has seen the total go under in nine of 12 already this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- The Rangers have seen the total go under in six of nine as a favorite of -110 or higher this year.

The verdict: This can still be a higher-scoring game and stay “under” this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Reds.

Washington goes with Patrick Corbin (5-2, 2.85 ERA) to open this series. The Nationals have won five of six and have found their stroke at the plate, but I think they’re over-valued in this spot and I think that regression is ultimately imminent. Note that Corbin is 2-3 with a pedestrian 3.94 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds (he gave up a season-high six runs off eight hits over six innings in his most recent start vs. them back on May 30th, 2018.) The Reds go with Tyler Mahle (1-5, 4.15) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Cubs on Saturday (allowing three home runs.) Mahle’s had his difficulties vs. the Nationals as well, facing them once and giving up six runs over two innings. 

Key Trends:

- Note though that Washington is just is still just 2-5 (-3.6 units) this year with a road money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- Additionally note that Cincinnati is 5-1 (+5 units) this year when playing with a day off. 

The verdict: Both teams have been hitting the ball well, but the numbers and situation favor the under dog home side in my opinion. Play on the Reds!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Colorado Rockies.

Kyle Freeland (2-6, 6.71 ERA) has struggled for the Rockies this season, but Colorado has already taken the first three games of this series and I believe they carry over that momentum here. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to rookie right-hander Taylor Clarke (1-0), who I believe will be in over his head here in this difficult road ballpark. Note that Arizona is just 6 of 28 with runners in scoring position over the first three games of this series.

Key Trends:

- Arizona is just 4-7 (-2.8 units) this year in revenging a one run loss to an opponent.

- Colorado is already 8-2 (+5 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I like the Rockies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup. All things considered, a very fair price. Lay it!

Ricky’s 9* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cards come in desperate to salvage the finale of this three-game series. St. Louis was 19-10 over March and April, but it’s only 7-18 in May. The Cards’ Dakota Hudson (3-3, 4.22 ERA) comes in off a career-high seven innings tossed in a win over the surging Braves on Saturday. Overall he’d allow five hits and two runs. Hudson now has four quality starts in May and a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. Jerad Eickhoff (2-2, 3.86) posted a tiny 1.50 ERA over his first five starts, but he’s since posted a 9.75 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. The stage is set for the slight upset. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is 12-8 in its last 20 when revenging for or more straight losses vs. an opponent. 

- The Phillies are a poor 7-9 (-3.3 units) already this season after two or more consecutive victories.

The verdict: I like Hudson to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the desperate Cardinals!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Will Aaron Nola “look past” the Cardinals tonight? Bryce Harper had two doubles and two RBI’s in yesterday’s 4-3 series opening victory and I think Nola and the home side carry that momentum over here. Nola (5-0, 4.53 ERA), posted a terrible 6.84 ERA over his first five starts, but has since posted a 2.76 ERA over his last six trips to the hill. After the slow start to the 2019 campaign, clearly Nola can’t “look past” anyone at this point. Note that Nola is 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA in five lifetime meetings vs. the Cards. His counterpart his 22-year old Genesis Cabrera, who makes his major league debut tonight (was 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis.) 

Key Trends:

The Cards are just 4-10 this year as a road dog.

- The Phillies are 18-9 as a home favorite.

The verdict: All things considered, this line could/should be much larger in my professional opinion. I’m laying the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the San Francisco Giants.

After falling 11-3 in yesterday’s series opener, I like Madison Bumgarner (3-4, 4.10 ERA) and the visiting Giants to bounce back on Wednesday. Bumgarner is likely finally on the trading block and he’ll be out to audition today for clubs who are in the running at the midway point. Bumgarner most recently gave up two runs over six innings vs. the Braves on Thursday, generating a season-high 17 swinging strikes. The home side counters with Pablo Lopez (3-5, 5.40) who has pitched better at home than on the road, but who I think is still over-matched here. 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is already a perfect 3-0 (+3.4 units) this season after having lost six or seven of its last eight games.

- Miami is just 9-21 (-10.2 units) as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range this year.

The verdict: I think Bumgarner gets the better of Lopez. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds.

The Pirates are going with Steven Brault out of the bullpen to start this one today because of necessity. Brault (1-1, 7.11 ERA) will have to face the red hot Reds’ slugger Derek Dietrich, who has four home runs over his last two games. The Reds won 11-6 yesterday and I believe they carry that momentum over here. Cincinnati hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 4.99), who comes in off an outing to forget, allowing four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Cubs. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is 42-64 (-12.6 units) the L2 years as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Cincinnati is 8-4 (+2.2 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: Admittedly DeSclafani has struggled at times this year and while Brault has enjoyed success vs. the Reds in the past, this is a “different” Cincinnati team and I think he’ll struggle in this difficult situation. This one has blowout written all over it my opinion, lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs.

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that one came up short, I think that the visitors offer great value to bounce back here vs. the depleted Astros, who will once again be without the services of sluggers Jose Altuve, George Springer and Aledmys Diaz. Houston goes with a rookie right-hander as well in Corbin Martin (1-1, 4.97 ERA), who most recently allowed four runs off six hits over 3 1/3’s innings in a 4-0 loss to the White Sox. The Cubs counter with Jon Lester (3-3, 2.68) who has struggled over his last two starts, but who is 1-0 with a 4.10 ERA in two career starts vs. the Astros.

Key Trends:

- Chicago is 29-19 L2 years in interleague contests.

- The Cubs are 24-12 in their last 36 vs. right-handed starters.

The verdict: I think Lester settles down and takes advantage of this spot and I look for the “hungrier” visiting side to step up and avenge yesterday’s setback. Play on the Cubs!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Kansas City Royals.

I’m calling for the upset here. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito (6-1, 2.77 ERA) is in arguably his best form ever as a pro. It’s hard to find too many faults with Giolito right now obviously, but the spot light is now on the hard-throwing southpaw. Brad Keller (3-5, 4.43) comes in under the radar, most recently allowing two runs over seven innings in an 8-2 win over the Cardinals in his last start for the Royals. Note as well that Keller is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts vs. the White Sox. Giolito has fantastic numbers vs. the Royals as well (but who doesn’t!), but I think regression is imminent. 

The verdict: As far as underdog plays on the board Tuesday, I think this one offers the best overall value, with Keller being a clear “X-factor.” Play on the hungry Royals!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

After winning two of three at Chicago over the weekend, I think the Reds take a step-back in this double-header Monday. Sonny Gray (1-4, 3.78 ERA) gets the call for the home side and he’s 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA lifetime vs. Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller makes his major league debut here after going 5-0 with a 3.45 ERA in Triple-A Indianapolis, striking out 56 batters over 47 innings of work. The Pirates won’t be lacking focus after losing five of their last six.

Key Trends:

- The Pirates are 7-2 in their last nine road games following a three games or more losing streak.

- Cincinnati is just 2-6 in its last eight home games following a win by five or more runs.

The verdict: I think Keller and the hungry visiting side are the correct call in Game 2!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

Neither of these starters instills much confidence. The Indians go with Jefry Rodriguez (1-4, 4.08 ERA), while the home side goes with Rick Porcello (3-4, 4.45). I had a play on Boston in its victory in Houston last night and I think it carries that momentum over here vs. a struggling Indians team which has lost six of seven, scoring more than three runs in just one of those contests. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is just 2-5 in its last seven as a road dog of +150 or higher.

- Boston is 13-8 as a home favorite this year.

The verdict: I like Porcello to settle down at home. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under D-Backs/Rockies.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Zack Greinke. The Diamondbacks’ ace is 12-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 31 regular season appearances vs. Colorado and he’s 5-1 in 12 starts at Coors Field.

Key Trends:

- Arizona has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 “day” games.

- Colorado has seen the total dip under in 33 of its last 53 at home when the total is set at either 10 or 10.5. 

The verdict: Colorado sends the competent Jon Gray to the hill tonight. This number is a bit high in my opinion, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

I had a play on the Red Sox in the finale of their three-game set vs. the Astros last night (after taking Houston in the second game of that series.) The Astros are banged up, as Aledmys Diaz, George Springer, Jose Altuve and Max Stassi are all on the IL. I think the door is wide open for the hungry Cubs and crafty veteran hurler Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA), who is 8-6 with a 3.99 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Houston.

Key Trends:

- Chicago is 15-8 in May.

- The Cubs are 29-18 L2 years in all interleague contests.

The verdict: Houston’s Gerritt Cole has historically had a lot of success vs. Chicago, but note that he’s coming off back to back crummy outings. This is a great situational play on the hungry visiting side. Cubs win, cubs win, cubs win!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals on the run line.

The Nationals came into this series struggling, but with a chance to sweep this four game set, I think Max Scherzer delivers the goods. Scherzer got crushed by the Marlins on April 20th, allowing seven runs over 5 1/3’s innings of work. That’s not been the norm throughout his career though as he’s still a sharp 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA lifetime vs. Miami (that includes going 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA last season).  

Key Trends:

- Miami is just 7-16 on the road.

- The Marlins are only 6-12 vs. teams with losing records.

- Washington is still 34-16 in its last 50 as a -200 favorite or higher.

The verdict: Expect the hungry home side to keep the foot on the gas in this favorable spot. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Braves/Cards.

When I put out a total on an MLB game, I primarily base it upon the starting pitching. Not many would argue with you if you stated that Julio Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA) is currently in the best overall form in the entire league right now. Indeed, Teheran has posted a minuscule 0.79 ERA over four May starts. He’s also 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA lifetime  against Saint Louis. Joe Flaherty (4-3, 4.19) has pitched into the fifth inning and hasn’t given up more than three runs in four starts so far in May.

Key Trends:

- Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5.

- St. Louis has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 22 following a victory.

The verdict: With these two starters expected to fight each other deep into the latter innings, all signs point to this one staying well under the posted number!

Ricky’s 9* play on the under Mariners/A’s.

These teams are moving in opposite directions. The A’s are looking for an eighth straight victory, while the M’s have lost the first five games of their six-game trip. The A’s want to keep the momentum rolling, while Seattle is desperate to salvage the finale of its road trip. Oakland sends Brett Anderson (5-3, 4.14 ERA) to the hill and he’s 8-5 with a 2.38 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Seattle. The Mariners counter with Mike Leake (3-5, 4.73) who is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in nine starts vs. the A’s. 

Key Trends:

- Seattle has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after two straight road losses vs. a division rival.

- Oakland has seen the total go under in 15 of 24 at home already.

- The A’s have seen the total go under the posted number in six of seven this year following a one run victory.

The verdict: I think these starters battle into the latter frames. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

I had a play on Houston yesterday, part of my winning five-game MLB report. But I think that Astros ace Justin Verlander (8-1, 2.24 ERA) finally has a letdown here. He struck out a season high 12 batters last time out. Verlander is 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA over 18 career starts vs. Boston. The visitors go with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 5.43 ERA) who is 0-3 with a 9.9 ERA over three career starts vs. Houston, but note that prior to losing at Toronto on May 21st, the Red Sox had won each of his previous seven starts. It’s been unfortunate timing for Rodriguez in his earlier match ups vs. Houston, but the trends today support a bounce back finally.  

Key Trends:

- As note that Boston is already 9-0 (+9.0 units) this season alone with double revenge and two straight losses vs. an opponent. 

- It’s also interesting to note that Houston is just 1-3 (-6 units) in its last four after scoring four runs or less in four straight games.

The verdict: I think the situation sets up great for an upset. Play on Boston!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Houston Astros. 

Houston held on for a 4-3 win last night and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Astros go with Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.59 ERA), who posted a third straight victory on Monday by going five scoreless vs. the White Sox, giving up two hits and recording nine K’s (note that Peacock definitely comes in on top form, posting a minuscule 0.53 ERA and 24 K’s compared to only five walks over his past three starts.) The Red Sox go with David Price (2-2, 3.29) who has been a bright spot on the pitching staff this year. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Price, I just think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Key Trends:

- Boston is just 3-6 (-3.5 units) this season when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

- Houston is 14-5 (+6.4 units) as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range this year.

The verdict: Peacock is arguably the best pitcher in all of MLB right now and at this price at home, I think he’s the correct call in this matchup. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Braves/Cards.

The Braves go with rookie Mike Soroka (5-1, 1.01 ERA) and the Cardinals go with Dakota Hudson (3-3, 4.40). Atlanta won the series opener 5-2 last night and I think that with these two hungry “studs” squaring off on Saturday, that runs will once again be at a premium.

Key Trends:

- The Braves have seen the total go under in 20 of their last 32 vs. right-handed starters.

- St. Louis has seen the total go under in 40 of its last 60 at home when the money line is set between -125 and +125.

The verdict: Expect these two young starters to throw deep into the latter frames. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. 

The Mariners welcome back slugger Kyle Seager to the line-up and I think they’ll find a way to pull off the minor upset on Saturday night. The M’s come in focused after losing four straight. The A’s come in complacent after winning seven straight. Seager though will help an infield that’s made a league worst 57 errors, as he’s already a two-time gold glove winner. The M’s go with Yusei Kikuchi (3-1, 3.43 ERA), while the home side goes with Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.05). Note that Kikuchi is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts vs. Oakland, while Fiers is a terrible 2-2 with a 6.36 ERA in ten starts vs. Seattle.

Key Trends:

- Seattle is still 8-4 (+4.4 units) in its last 12 off two straight road losses vs. a division rival.

- Oakland is only 2-5 (-3.8 units) in its last seven after six or more straight victories.

The verdict: I like Kikuchi to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the Mariners!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cubs.

After last night’s crushing ninth inning loss, I think the home side bounces back here. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (1-5, 3.51 ERA) and clearly he’s thrown a lot better than what his win/loss record would indicate. Note though that Mahle was just 7-9 with a 4.98 ERA last year, including just 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.06) gets the call for the Cubs and he’ll be looking to get back on track after allowing five runs over four innings vs. the Cards on Saturday. Darvish has traded good starts with horrible ones this year. 

Key Trends:

- The Reds are just 4-10 (-4.8 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- The Cubs are still 9-2 (+6 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I think Mahle finally takes a step back and I like the veteran Darvish to get back on track in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Yanks/Royals.

Last night’s game was postponed due to inclement weather. JA Happ gets the nod for the visitors in the opener of this double-header, while Jakob Junis gets the nod for the home side. Junis is 3-5 with a 5.69 ERA, while Happ is 3-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Happ though is 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA lifetime vs. KC. Junis enters off his best star of the year, giving up four earned runs over seven innings with six K’s vs. the Angels on Saturday. I think these hungry starters are going to battle deep. 

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak.

- The Royals have seen the total dip under in nine of their last 12 home games as an underdog in the +125 to +200 range.

The verdict: I think the shift to the double-header today is a distraction and I believe these hungry starters will take advantage. This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Giants on the run line.

Arizona comes in on a five-game losing streak. Clearly Robbie Ray is in much better form than his counterpart Drew Pomeranz, but I simply think this is a bad “spot” for Ray. The Diamondbacks have hit the panic button and they’ve moved Ray up a spot in the rotation because of an injury to Zack Greinke. Pomeranz won’t be lacking for motivation here as he’s fighting for a spot. I think the door is open for a much more competitive battle than what this line would suggest. 

Key Trends:

- The Diamondbacks are already just 1-3 (-2.4 units) this year after scoring four runs or less in four straight games.

- The Giants 15-12 (+6.3 units) this season following a loss.

The verdict: I had a play on the Orioles on the run line at home to the Yanks last night, a game which they ended up losing 5-4 in extras. In what I expect to be another tight affair here, I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs. Play on the Giants run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Let’s call these two struggling “gas cans” a wash on the mound tonight. The Braves go with the struggling Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 6.91 ERA), while the home side goes with the struggling Miles Mikolas (4-4, 4.88). Both have been terrible all year and each comes in off a crummy outing. But after dropping two of three in Atlanta just last week, I think the home side comes in focused and delivers in the revenge scenario.

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is just 2-7 (-4.2 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- St. Louis is 9-2 (+6.3 units) this year at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: I think “revenge” works in this one. Look for Mikolas to get the better of his counterpart at home and lay what I think to be a very reasonable mid-sized price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

I think the Marlins will stumble here after winning six straight. Washington won’t be lacking for motivation clearly after losing five straight, including allowing the Mets to rally in the eighth inning last night to complete a four-game sweep with the 6-4 victory. The Marlins go with Pablo Lopez (3-6, 5.06 ERA), who comes in off a decent start but who is 0-1 with a ballooned 7.59 ERA in two career starts vs. the Nationals. Washington goes with Kyle McGowin (0-0, 6.00) who has pitched 10 2/3’s innings over six major league games, posting a 5.91 ERA and striking out 11 batters. 

Key Trends:

- Miami is still just 7-14 as a road underdog this year.

- Washington is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: I think the Marlins are playing over their heads right now and I’m not going to read too much into the Nationals’ current slump. Look for these trends to start going the other way effective immediately. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* run line play on the Baltimore Orioles.

I had a play on the Orioles as a massive underdog at home on the money line vs. the Yanks yesterday afternoon and that pick came up just short. New York has now 11 straight games at Camden Yards. Dylan Bundy has had varying success vs. the Orioles though out his career, but he comes in off three straight strong outings. Tanaka has been solid this year and he’s done well vs. the O’s throughout his career, but he returns for the first time off a short stint on the DL. It’s a factor which I thin the hungry home side uses. 

Key Trends:

- New York is still just 3-4 (-3.8 units) this season off four straight victories vs. division rivals.

- Baltimore is already 5-2 (+6 units) this year after four or more consecutive losses.

The verdict: The outright isn’t out of the question in my opinion. That said, I’m going to recommend to play this one on the run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the White Sox on the run line.

The Astros improve to 9-1 in their last ten without slugger Jose Altuve in the line-up after yesterday’s 5-1 win. I simply feel though that Gerritt Cole and the home side are over-priced here and I think grabbing the hungry Sox and Ivan Nova at “plus money” on the “run line” is a savvy investment. Nova is 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA over seven road starts, compared to 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA at home.

Key Trends:

- Chicago is 13-9 (+7.2 units) in all “night” games this year.

- Houston is just 2-3 (-3.6 units) this season after allowing four runs or less in five straight games.

The verdict: I’m grabbing the 1.5 runs and expecting a much tighter affair than what this lien would suggest. Play on the White Sox on the run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Nats/Mets.

Yesterday’s game flew well above the posted number in the Mets much needed 6-5 victory, but I think runs will be much harder to come by with Max Scherzer (2-5, 3.72 ERA) and Jacob DeGrom (3-5, 3.98) on the mound on Wednesday night. Scherzer is 10-5 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. the Mets. DeGrom is 8-4 with a 2.50 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Nationals. These two faced off on Opening Day and the Mets won 2-0. 

Key Trends:

- Washington has seen the total go under in interestingly four of its last five off two consecutive close losses by two runs or less to a division rival.

- New York has seen the total go under in four of five after two or more consecutive victories.

The verdict: Everything points to a classic “duel” after yesterday’s slug-fest. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles

Yes the Yanks won 11-4 yesterday, but I still think that veteran pitcher CC Sabathia is overpriced in this particular matchup. Baltimore has lost nine straight at home in this series, so it won’t be lacking for motivation. Dan Straily (1-3, 8.51 ERA) has clearly been a disappointment, but he too won’t be lacking for motivation. Ultimately I believe that Sabathia’s numbers are unsustainable over the long-term and I expect regression sooner, rather than later. And that leaves the door open for the hungry dog in this matchup. 

Key Trends:

- New York is already only 4-5 (-1.4 units) this year after three or more straight victories.

- Baltimore is already 3-0 (+5.2 units) this season off a loss by six runs or more to a division rival.

The verdict: I’m expecting the Yanks to have a letdown here. Play on the O’s!

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres.

The Padres look to sweep this series from the Diamondbacks, who continue to struggle with offensive consistency. Eric Lauer (2-4, 5.24 ERA) goes for San Diego, while Merrill Kelly (4-4, 4.21) gets the nod for the visitors. Lauer is 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona. He’s struggled twice against them this season, but he enters off his best start of the year by allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Pirates on Thursday. Kelly has also struggled in two starts vs. the Padres with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  

Key Trends:

- Arizona is just 2-5 (-2.7 units) this year already off a one run loss vs. a division rival.

- San Diego is still 4-0 this season after scoring four runs or less in six straight games.

The verdict: I like San Diego to keep the momentum rolling here and give the slight nod to Lauer on the bump. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Overnight pitching change. The over night change because of yesterday’s cancellation favors the home side here. Both teams are struggling with offensive consistency, but I think Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.93 ERA) has a sizeable advantage over his counterpart Brad Keller (2-5, 4.66) this afternoon. 

Key Trends:

- Kansas City is a poor 5-14 as a road dog this year

- The Royals are 16-27 the L2 years in all interleague contests.

- St. Louis is still 8-5 this season vs. clubs with losing records.

The verdict: The Royals have to deal with the interleague rules, and with shifting things around after yesterday’s cancellation. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side and Wacha and it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Reds/Brewers.

This one’s a “no brainer” in my opinion. These aren’t only two of the best in the NL on the mound this afternoon, it’s two of the best in all of MLB. Luis Castillo (5-1, 1.90 ERA) of the Reds goes against Zack Davies (5-0, 1.54) of the Brewers. Cincinnati came out on top in yesterday’s series opener, but everything points to a classic “duel” on Wednesday afternoon. 

Key Trends:

- Reds have seen the total go under the number in 16 of 23 on the road overall.

- Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 11 of 16 vs. the division already.

- Milwaukee has seen the total go under in 22 of 32 this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125.

The verdict: I have no reason to believe that either of these “locked in” hurlers will falter here. Expect each to battle into the latter frames and play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Marcus Stroman. He’s my “key angle” for this game. In a rebuilding season, Stroman has been a bright spot early on. Of yesterday’s 12-2 loss, I think Stroman offers great value to help his team bounce back here facing Eduardo Rodriguez. Stroman is 1-6 with a 2.95 ERA, while Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA. Note as well that slugger Vlad Guerrero Jr. had a day off on Monday, but is expected back here. 

Key Trends:

- Boston is is 10-11 (-6.1 units) this year as a road favorite.

- Toronto is a money-making 7-6 (+3.5 units) vs. southpaws this season.

The verdict: Great value on the hungry home dog!

Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres

The desperate home side has lost six of its last seven. Thankfully its ace Chris Paddack comes to the mound. It won’t be easy facing the hard-hitting visiting side and Luke Weaver, but I believe the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is an important series as well as San Diego hits the road for series in Toronto and at the Yankees. Paddack is 3-2 with a 1.99 ERA, while Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.16. San Diego is already 4-3 vs. the D-Backs this year and I look for them to extend that streak. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is just 9-11 (-3.7 units) this year already after two or more consecutive home games.

- San Diego is 6-4 (+1.7 units) this season after a loss by two runs or less.

The verdict: Lay the price on the hungry home side and expect a break out performance!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

Chris Sale (1-5, 4.24 ERA) has returned to form of late for Boston and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Sale is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts in May with 41 strikeouts and only one walk over his last 21 innings of work. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. Houston. His counterpart Wade Miley (4-2, 3.51) is just 2-2 with a ballooned 7.13 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. 

Key Trends:

- Houston is just 2-5 (-8.2 units) this year after five or more consecutive road games.

- Boston is 6-1 (+4.3 units) this season as a home favorite between -150 and -200.

The verdict: I like Sale to easily get the better of his counterpart. Great price on the home side here!

Ricky’s 10* BEWARE OF DOG on the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta has won four straight and I expect it to carry that momentum over here and to give Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 8.02 ERA) his first win of the year. Brandon Woodruff (0-3, 8.02) gets the nod for the Brewers. Foltynewicz is 2-2 with a very respectable 2.90 ERA in five starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff has never faced the Braves and while he’s personally in better current form than Foltynewicz, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is is only 11-13 on the road.

- The Brewers are just 2-7 (-5.8 units) with double revenge in two straight losses vs. an opponent.

The verdict: I think the momentum in which the Braves have created is real and I expect it to carry over here. Play on Atlanta!

Ricky’s 6* play on the New York Mets.

I think Noah Syndergaard (3-3, 4.74 ERA) and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this one. Syndgaard comes in off a strong outing as well, beating Washington by allowing only two runs over eight innings. Note that he’s also 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Fish. His counterpart Sandy Alcantara (1-4, 5.11) is 0-1 with a 6.34 ERA vs. the Mets this season. 

Key Trends:

- The Mets 4-0 (+4.2 units) already this year in revenging a shut out loss vs. an opponent.

- The Marlins are just 2-5 in their last seven after shutting out a division rival.

The verdict: This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Twins/ Mariners.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- The starting pitchers. While Twins’ ace Jose Berrios (6-2, 3.05 ERA) comes in off a terrible outing, he’s still pitched into the sixth inning in nine of ten games this year. He’ll be opposed by Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 4.50), who is 0-0 vs. the Twins in five career match ups, despite posting a 1.26 ERA (giving up only seven hits and two runs over 14 1/3’s innings). 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota has seen the total go under in ten of its last 14 after playing two or more consecutive road games.

- Seattle has seen the total go under in six of its last ten as a home underdog of +125 or more.

The verdict: Everything points to a classic “duel.” Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 14-6 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (3-1, 1.16 ERA), while the home side counters with Stephen Strasburg (3-3, 3.63). Lester hasn’t given up a single run in his last three starts, which is clearly unbelievably impressive. However, I think it’s a run which is clearly unsustainable. Strasburg has quietly been dominating for a while now as well, going 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA with 47 K’s over his last 34 1/3’s innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- The Cubs are just 3-6 this year as a road dog still.

- Washington is 26-18 in its last 44 after allowing eight or more runs in its previous contest.

The verdict: I think the hungry home side is the correct call here. Lester takes a step back and Strasburg continues to progress. All things considered, a great price. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cardinals/Rangers.

I feel this total is much too high considering the talented hurlers on the mound. Also note that the Cards are in a major drought right now, having been outscored 21-5 in losing their last three games. St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson (2-3, 4.61 ERA) comes in off a decent outing vs. Pittsburgh, allowing three runs over seven innings of work. Despite being 0-2 in May, he’s posted a 3.18 ERA. He’ll be opposed by Ariel Jurado (1-1, 1.50) who makes his first start of the season. In his last appearance he gave up two runs over three innings to Kansas City.

Key Trends:

- The Cards have seen the total go under in six of their last eight after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games.

- The Rangers have seen the total go under in four of five already this year ager scoring seven or more runs in two straight games.

The verdict: I expect these hungry starting pitchers to throw deep into this one. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

After falling 8-6 in yesterday’s series opener, I like the Mets to bounce back here on Saturday. Miami looks poised for an immediate letdown after breaking its seven game slide. I give a big nod to Mets’ starter Steven Matz (3-2, 3.86 ERA) over his counterpart Pablo Lopez (2-5, 5.93). Lopez faced the Mets on May 10th and was shelled for ten runs and a career-high ten hits over three innings. 

Key Trends:

- The Mets are already 2-0 this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite.

- The Marlins are only 2-7 vs. southpaws this year.

The verdict: I think we’re getting fantastic value on Matz in this matchup. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Antonio Senzatela has been far better on the road than at home this year (big surprise considering his home field is Coors!), but I still think that Aaron Nola is the “correct call” in this matchup. Nola got out to a terrible start to 2019, but he’s been “lights out” since by giving up just six runs over his last 21 1/3’s innings of work (Nola is also 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Colorado, while Senzatela is a pedestrian 0-1 with a 5.01 ERA in his lone start vs. Philadelphia.

Key Trends:

- Colorado is just 2-5 (-3 units) this year already following a one run loss.

- The Rockies are only 4-9 (-5.1 units) after two or more straight losses.

- The Phillies are 9-4 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: Look for Nola to continue his progression in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price! 

Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Fatigue. I think it’s a factor here for the Twins after their 8-7 extra innings win over the Angels yesterday. The Mariners had the day off after sweeping a two-game set from the A’s. Michael Pineda and Erik Swanson has both struggled this year, so I’ll call that department “even” tonight. The difference is in team conditioning and in the numbers. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is just 3-7 in its last ten following a road game in which it scored eight or more runs in, while also winning the contest.

- Seattle is 5-1 (+5.2 units) this season off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners!

Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Dodgers.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Kenta Maeda. He’s 4-2 with a 4.03 ERA this year and he’s gotten significantly better as the season has worn on. So far he has a sharp 34:18 K:BB over his last 38.2 innings of work and note that he’s 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home thus far.

Key Trends:

- San Diego is still just 11-12 vs. the division this year.

- The Dodgers are 18-6 as a home favorite.

The verdict: Look for LA and Maeda to take this one decisively and lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Eduardo Rodriguez. The Boston starter has been on fire of late. While just 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA overall, Rodriguez has gone 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA over his last six starts. All Boston victories. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado is just 3-7 this season as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

- The Rockies are only 1-4 this year after a win by two runs or less (won 5-4 in extras last night).

- The Red Sox are 93-54 (+26.9 units) the L2 years following a loss.

The verdict: I like Rodriguez to carry over his recent form here and I think that Marquez and the Rockies take a step back here after last night’s extra innings win. Lay the reasonable mid sized price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant.

- Patrick Corbin. No big surprise to learn that my “key angle” for this contest comes on Nats’ starter Patrick Corbin (3-1, 3.20 ERA) so far this year, including 2-1 in all “night” contests.

Key Trends:

- The Mets are just 8-11 (-4.5 units) this season after a win.

- The Nationals are 3-5 (-4.9 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 

The verdict: I think Corbin is the correct call here over his younger counterpart (Font). Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Padres on the run line.

As good as Clayton Kershaw was, I think he’s overmatched here facing the red hot Chris Paddack. Paddack (3-1 ,1.55 ERA) went eight scoreless vs. the Mets in his last start. Kershaw (2-0, 3.31) gave up four runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Braves in his last outing.

Key Trends:

- San Diego is 10-6 as a road dog this year.

- LA is only 2-4 in its last six after shutting out its opponent.

The verdict: I think these two starters battle deep. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I’m going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Pirates’ Joe Musgrove (1-4, 4.20 ERA) squares off against the Diamondbacks Luke Weaver (3-1, 2.98) in this one. Weaver is coming off back-to-back seven inning performances and in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh he’s 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Musgrove has been shelled for 14 runs over his last 5 2/3’s innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 3-5 (-1.3 units) as a road dog in the +105 to +150 range.

- Arizona is 15-10 in all night games.

The verdict: Momentum. The D-Backs come in with a lot of it after five straight victories. I think that Weaver is well worth the price of admission in this one!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cards/Braves.

Two competent hurlers square off in this National league contest on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-3, 4.32 ERA), while the home side sends Mike Foltynewicz (0-2, 5.94). 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis has seen the total go under in three of four already this season after allowing eight or more runs.

- Atlanta has seen the total go under in 30 of its last 45 after three or more consecutive wins (took three of four vs. the D-Backs over the weekend.)

The verdict: I think Foltynewicz finally gets his act together here in this favorable spot. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Mike Fiers. Fiers (3-3, 5.48 ERA) comes in off his second career no-hitter in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Tuesday. Despite the great effort, Fiers still owns the poor overall 5.48 ERA and I think he suffers a predictable letdown here. His counterpart Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.54) most recently allowed one run off three hits with ten K’s and one walk in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. 

Key Trends:

- Oakland is just 5-13 on the road.

- Seattle is 11-3 (+8.3 units) vs. clubs with losing records this year.

The verdict: A great spot bet in my opinion, as I think Fiers definitely suffers a letdown after his no-hitter last time out. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

Ricky’s 8* play on the White Sox on the run line.

The Indians’ Shane Bieber has been the victim of some back luck of late. I think that trend continues here. Reynaldo Lopez has struggled, but the White Sox have been getting decent production at the plate of late and I think the hungry home side keeps this one competitive late. So far these clubs have split six meetings this year.

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 6-9 (-7.1 units) vs. the division.

- The Indians are only 6-7 (-2.9 units) after allowing four runs or less in four straight. 

- Chicago is 11-6 (+7.7 units) in all “night” games.

The verdict: I think Cleveland stumbles again. Lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Jose Berrios. He should definitely be a bigger favorite in this matchup in my opinion. Both teams come in off losses, but Berrios (6-1, 2.53 ERA) has arguably been the hottest pitcher so far in 2019. He faces Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 4.70) who was just rocked for eight runs over 4 2/3’s innings vs. the Tigers on Wednesday.

Key Trends:

- LA is just 8-12 on the road this year.

- Minnesota is 13-7 at home.

- The Twins are 11-3 (+8.8 units) this year following a loss.

The verdict: I like Berrios to continue his red hot start. Great value, lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Astros/Tigers.

This is the opener of a three-game set. Detroit’s been competitive. Tonight’s starting pitchers have been better than advertised and I believe that they’re going to battle each other deep into the latter frames. Brad Peacock (3-2, 4.30 ERA) just went seven scoreless vs. Kansas City, while Detroit hands the ball to its ace Matt Boyd (4-2, 2.86.) Boyd has posted seven straight quality starts, going 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in that span.

Key Trends:

- Houston has seen the total go under the number in five of six already this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -100 to -150.

- The Astros have seen the total go under in 12 of 19 on the road overall this season.

- Detroit has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 as an underdog this year.

The verdict: As stated off the top, I believe these starting pitchers battle deep into the latter frames, helping to result in a lower-scoring affair. Play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Dodgers.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Inept offense. Max Scherzer (1-4, 3.78 ERA) has looked a lot better of late, but the Nationals continue to struggle at the plate, as evidenced by yesterday’s 5-0 setback. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler (4-0, 4.95) comes in off a strong outing vs. the Braves on Monday, allowing three runs with eight K’s over seven innings. 

Key Trends:

- Washington is just 6-14 (-12.6 units) in all “night” games this year.

- LA is 9-4 (+3 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I like Buehler to match Scherzer. Lay the short price with confidence on the hot hitting home side!

Ricky’s 9* play on the San Francisco Giants.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Reds’ starter Anthony DeSclafani’s issues with the Giants. He owns a lifetime 6.08 ERA vs. the Giants and I think he’ll struggle here as well. San Fran starter Jeff Samardzija is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and after yesterday’s 7-0 loss in the series opener, I think he and the home side offer terrific value to bounce back on Saturday. 

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is just 7-14 on the road this year.

- The Reds are only 13-18 vs. right-handed starters this year.

- San Fran is a money-making 11-9 (+4.5 units) this season in all “night” games.

The verdict: I think the shape money is on Samardzija. Play on the Giants!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Mets on the run line.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Mets starter Jacob deGrom. MLB handicapping is all about the starting pitchers and when releasing a “run line” play, I base it primarily on or against one of the starters. For this one I’m basing it primarily on deGrom, who after a slow start to 2019 has returned to form, giving up just two runs over his last 14 innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- Miami is just 4-9 as a road dog of +150 or higher this season.

- New York is 33-20 in its last 53 as a favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: Look for New York to build off yesterday’s convincing victory and lay the 1.5 runs!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Pirates/Cards.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Current form of today’s starters. Jordan Lyles (has had MAJOR issues with the Cards in the past, but he comes in with a 2-1, 2.20 ERA record. St. Louis is in a major hitting slump currently, so Lyles has an opportunity to take advantage. Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas (4-2, 4.02) has given up just one run over his last two starts (Nats and Phillies.) This contest has “duel” written all over it!

Key Trends:

- The Pirates have seen the total go under the number in nine of 16 on the road already this year.

- The Cards have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 12 as a favorite.

The verdict: Expect these competent hurlers to battle deep. Play the under!