06-08-17 |
Astros v. Royals +1.5 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kansas City Royals Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET
The Royals Jason Hammel certainly has much worse numbers than the Astros Lance McCullers on the season. However, the Kansas City righty has given up only 15 hits in 17 innings over his last 3 starts. Also, the last time times Hammel has toed the rubber against the Astros he has allowed only 8 hits in 13 and 2 / 3 innings. Though McCullers has certainly been impressive for Houston this season, he has given up 7 runs (5 earned) in 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 2 starts. The Royals have now taken 2 straight from the Astros and the hits are actually equal so far in the first three games of this 4-game set. With the way that Kansas City is swinging the bat right now they have a great shot at making it 3 straight over Houston tonight. We definitely like the added value of having the Royals at +1.5 runs here should they fall short of the upset here as we certainly don't expect the Astros to get a road rout here. Houston has been a streaky team throughout this season and also has gone 15-22 in Thursday games in recent seasons. It is getaway day as the Astros head back home after this game and we'll back a Royals team that has excelled as a home dog this season. KC is 7-2 this season in games where they are a home dog of +125 to +175 on the money line. We're grabbing the run line here at a great price considering how well the Royals have played as big home dogs this season. Bet the Kansas City Royals at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in evening action Thursday.
|
06-07-17 |
Astros v. Royals +1.5 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kansas City Royals Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Houston's long winning streak finally came to an end yesterday and now everyone is looking to grab them in bounce back mode here. Of course it is particularly tempting because the Astros have Dallas Keuchel on the mound. The Astros southpaw has put up phenomenal numbers this season. However, Keuchel's fantastic numbers have left Jason Vargas out of the spotlight in this start but what he's done in his home starts this season has been nothing short of phenomenal as well. The Royals left-hander has had one poor start at home this season but in the other 5 starts that Vargas has made at Kaufmann Stadium this season he has allowed a TOTAL of 1 run in 35 and 2 / 3 innings! That equates to an unheard of 0.25 ERA in 5 home starts. With all that said, Vargas and Kansas City here (thanks to a market move) are available at even money and +1.5 runs! Considering how well Vargas has pitched in all but 1 home outing this season, the odds are heavily in favor of a well-pitched low-scoring match-up in this one. That means we are benefiting greatly with the +1.5 runs here. The KC bullpen has a 3.68 ERA in home games while the Houston bullpen has a 3.97 ERA in road games this season. As you can see, the perceived overall pitching edge that the betting markets are grasping onto here just doesn't exist. Both Keuchel and Vargas pitched well when these teams met in a series in April but Vargas won his start and Keuchel lost his and we wouldn't be surprised to see a replay of that outcome here as this time these guys are matched up. Grab the added value with the run line because if the Royals do fall short it would not be surprising to see defeat come by just a single run in what should be a pitchers duel tonight. Bet the Kansas City Royals at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in evening action Wednesday.
|
06-06-17 |
Blue Jays v. A's +1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland A's Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET
Marco Estrada has the much better record of these two hurlers but the WHIP and ERA are very similar. With that said, we love the home dog value with Oakland in this match-up. The A's are simply a different team at home as they have averaged 5 runs per game and gone 17-12 in Oakland. The Blue Jays are just 11-16 on the road and we can lay a very manageable price to have the Athletics at +1.5 runs and protect against a one-run loss. The Blue Jays, at -1.5 runs, would be 7-13 in their last 20 games as they are 11-9 during that stretch but 4 of the wins have come by just a single run. The Blue Jays have been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. The A's have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 6 home games and pitcher Jesse Hahn should get plenty of run support here. Toronto's Estrada got absolutely rocked in his most recent start with 7 earned runs allowed in less than 4 innings of work. Jesse Hahn will be toeing the rubber for Oakland and is off a poor start too but previously allowed just 32 in 41 and 2 / 3 innings as a starter this season. Estrada has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 6 starts and we are forecasting that poor pattern to continue here. The A's, at +1.5 runs, are 4-1 at the betting window in their last 5 home games. Bet the Oakland A's at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night west coast action Tuesday.
|
06-04-17 |
Cardinals +1.5 v. Cubs |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* St Louis Cardinals Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET
The Cubs have won the first two games of this 3-game divisional set but the Cubbies still are not hitting. Chicago has been held to 6 hits or less in 7 of their last 8 games. In those 7 games of futility at the plate the Cubs have averaged only 4 hits per game. That is 4 HITS not 4 RUNS per game and the point is that the Cubs are going to have trouble getting much separation from the Cardinals in this one. The Cards are desperate to avoid a sweep and they could give Kyle Hendricks some trouble here. Hendricks gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Padres in his most recent start. Michael Wacha toes the rubber for St Louis in in this one and has been "up and down" this season but does have a respectable 3.99 ERA on the season. Also, Wacha pitched well in his last start against the Cubs and that was also here at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are just 5-7 in their last 12 games and only have 3 wins by 2 more runs or more in those dozen games. We'll grab the added value on the run line in this one as we can lay small juice to get the +1.5 runs as we challenge the Cubs slumping bats in this one. The Cardinals, at +1.5 runs, are 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Great line value here with that 73% in-season trend working in our favor for this one. Bet the St Louis Cardinals at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in evening action Sunday..
|
06-02-17 |
White Sox +1.5 v. Tigers |
|
5-15 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago White Sox +1.5 Runs over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET These two teams have already met 9 times this year with the White Sox winning 6 of those games. It really hasn’t been very close with the Sox outscoring the Tigers 51-31 in those 9 games. Fulmer is on the hill for Detroit and while his numbers are impressive with a 2.65 ERA, the Tigers have lost both games he’s started vs Chicago this season. That includes a 3-0 loss over the weekend. Fulmer also has been a better pitcher on the road this year where he has allowed just 12 earned runs in 43 innings compared to giving up 10 earned runs in just 25 innings at home. Detroit may still be recovering from a long and unusual 10 game road trip in which they played 11 games. The Sox send Holland to the hill who actually has better numbers than Fulmer on the season. He has an ERA of just 2.37 and in his last two starts Holland has allowed just 2 earned runs in 14 innings of work with 14 strikeouts. The lefty has allowed only 3 earned runs in his 12.1 innings of work vs Detroit this year. He faced this Tigers line up just last weekend and allowed only 1 earned run over 6 innings of work. In that series over the weekend the Sox took 3 of 4 and their arms had Detroit’s offense struggling all weekend with a whopping 49 strikeouts. That continues tonight as Detroit his just .236 vs lefties and averages only 3.8 RPG. That’s not enough offense to pull away here and we like the WHITE SOX +1.5 runs.
|
05-31-17 |
Rockies +1.5 v. Mariners |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
11 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET
The Mariners took the first two games in this series in Colorado and now the "home and home" inter-league battle heads to the Pacific Northwest for two more games. Don't be surprised if the Rockies turn the tables on the M's here. Certainly we like the value of the +1.5 runs (and only have to lay a small price to get it) but we would not be surprised to see the upset in this game. Antonio Senzatela has been a pleasant surprise this season and is already 7-1 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his 10 starts. The Rockies have been road warriors this season as they are already 18-8 away from home. The Mariners have lost their last 3 home games by a combined score of 26 to 3. Seattle will have James Paxton toeing the rubber in this one and he has solid numbers this season but his most recent start, which was also at home, saw him give up 5 hits AND issue 5 walks in just 5 innings of work. Colorado is 14-6 when off of a loss this season and this is the right pitching match-up for them to bounce back after losing back to back games for the first time in over two weeks! The Mariners are a money-burning 14-21 in night games this season. Seattle is only 4-7 in their last 11 games and 2 of their last 5 wins have come by just a single run. The Rockies (at +1.5 runs) would be 8-2 in their last 10 games and we're laying a little juice for the run line here because, if the Rockies do fall short, we would expect it to be a tight one-run loss as Senzatela continues his strong season! Bet the Colorado Rockies at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night West Coast action Wednesday.
|
05-30-17 |
Reds v. Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
110 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Toronto Blue Jays Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Blue Jays J.A. Happ will be on a pitch count here but the Blue Jays bullpen can handle it the rest of the way and Happ rates a big edge over the Reds starting pitcher here. For Cincinnati it will be Asher Wojciechowski on the mound and his only MLB experience as a starter was 3 starts back in April of 2015 that saw him go winless with a 9.75 ERA. Each of the last 3 seasons in the minors Wojciechowski has finished with an ERA of 4.74 or more each year. That is at the minor league level and now he faces a red hot and confident Blue Jays team that just exploded for 17 runs on 23 hits yesterday. This will not be a good situation for Wojciechowski on the road. Cincinnati is 3-7 against left-handed starters this season and on a 16-32 run in inter-league action. We'll lay the 1.5 runs with the Blue Jays as the Reds have lost 11 of their last 16 games and 8 of the Reds last 10 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Blue Jays have won 6 of their last 7 games and 8 of their last 11 wins have come by 2 runs or more. Bet the Toronto Blue Jays at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
05-29-17 |
Cubs -1.5 v. Padres |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Monday at 4:40 PM ET
The Padres are off of an upset win at Washington Sunday afternoon and now take the long flight back home for an afternoon game the next day. It certainly is a tough scheduling situation for San Diego while the Cubs were already in southern California facing the Dodgers yesterday. Though the Cubs lost that game and suffered a rare sweep at the hands of Los Angeles, this looks like an ideal bounce back spot. Of course that is why Chicago is a high-priced favorite here on the road but we can avoid laying the big price by grabbing them on the run line in a spot that has the proper ingredients for a blowout win. Not only does the scheduling situation favor the Cubs, they have a massive pitching edge here. Chicago will have Kyle Hendricks toeing the rubber and he is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA in his last 6 starts. The Padres will have Jarred Cosart on the bump and he had a shortened outing in his most recent start as he was very ineffective and also took a line drive off of his foot. That means this situation doesn't exactly look promising for Cosart considering he also had a poor, very short outing in his only career start against the Cubs too. In his 4 starts this season Cosart hasn't yet reached the 75 pitch plateau. In terms of the "risk" of laying the extra 1.5 runs here, the Padres last 9 losses have all come by more than 1 run! 6 of the Cubs last 7 wins have come by 2 runs or more. Also, Hendricks is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his 5 career starts against San Diego. We look for more domination on Memorial Day. Bet the Chicago Cubs at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in late afternoon action Monday.
|
05-28-17 |
A's v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
5-9 |
Win
|
125 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
Even with their win over the Yankees on Friday the A’s entered Saturday’s action having the fewest road wins (7) of any teams in the majors this season. Oakland was 7-15 on the road entering Saturday’s game in the Bronx where the Yankees had gone 15-7 this season before the 4-1 home loss Friday evening. As you can see, there is some tremendous home/road value here for this Sunday afternoon match-up and, additionally, the Yankees have a big pitching edge in this one. Andrew Triggs was great for the A’s in April but he’s quickly come back down to earth in May and also is coming off of his worst start of the season as he allowed 6 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings against the Red Sox in his most recent outing. At the other end of the spectrum, Michael Pineda is 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA this season and he’s been particularly strong at home and in day games. In the Bronx this season, Pineda has a 4-1 mark with a 2.18 ERA this season. In afternoon action, the Yankees right-hander is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 4 starts! As you can see, the Yanks have big edges here and we can get line value here by grabbing them on the run line. We’ll avoid laying the big money line price and lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees. Entering Saturday’s action, 20 of the A’s last 24 losses came by 2 runs or more. 17 of the Yanks last 20 wins have come by 2 runs or more! Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees on the Run line early Sunday.
|
05-24-17 |
Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
Biggest favorite on the board today on the money line but by taking the run line here we get a very manageable price on the #1 pitcher in baseball this season and this has the makings of a home rout. The Red Sox lost the most recent start Chris Sale made but it certainly wasn't his fault. The ace left-hander continues to dominate and has a 2.19 ERA on the season with an incredible 95 strikeouts in 65 and 2/3 innings. In his last two starts against Texas, Sale has struck out 27 while allowing 0 runs and only 5 hits in 15 completely dominant innings. The Rangers have been hot but they've now lost 2 of their last 3 and Martin Perez will prove to be no match for Sale. The Rangers are 0-3 in the road starts Perez has made this season and he has a 1.77 WHIP away from home. The point is that his ERA this season could easily be much higher than it is because he has been hit quite hard on the year and this is particularly true away from home. The Rangers are only 8-14 away from home this season and 5 of their last 6 overall losses have come by a margin of 4 runs or more. The Red Sox are a long-term 68-21 as a home favorite of -250 to -330 but what about covering the 1.5 runs? Since April 30th, Boston has 11 wins and 10 of them have come by 2 runs or more. We have every reason to believe Sale dominates the Rangers again and this one turns into a blowout in favor of the home team at Fenway Park! Bet the Boston Red Sox at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Wednesday!
|
05-23-17 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) over St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET
The Cardinals won on Sunday but that was preceded by 4 straight losses. Also, the Cards were off yesterday and they are 2-9 this season (and a long-term 19-34) when playing after a day off. In their games against left-handed starters this season, St Louis has been held to just 3.9 runs per game and a paltry .224 batting average in going 3-5 in those contests. The Cardinals face a tough one tonight too as it is Clayton Kershaw getting the call for the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 7-2 in his starts and 6 of those 7 wins have been decided by a margin of 2 runs or more. The Dodgers are very pricey on the money line tonight but, by laying the 1.5 runs, we are getting an excellent low price in a game that LA should dominate. The Dodgers sticks are facing Lance Lynn and the Cards right-hander has given up 10 runs (8 earned) in his last two starts as he has not been as effective as he had been earlier this season. Lynn gave up 6 hits in 5 innings when he last faced LA while Kershaw gave up only 1 hit while striking out 11 in 8 scoreless innings the last time he faced STL. Huge pitching edge here and 12 of the Dodgers last 13 wins have come by at least 2 runs so we have no problem laying the 1.5 runs here. The Dodgers have a long-term record of 52-27 in home games with a total set at 7 runs or less. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night West Coast action Tuesday!
|
05-22-17 |
Royals v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
120 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
Jason Vargas toes the rubber for the Royals tonight and he has some great numbers on the season but he got rocked by the Yankees in Kansas City last week (6 earned runs in 4 innings) and that does not bode well for him in terms of what to expect in this rematch. In fact, the Yankees slugging percentage of .484 while averaging 6.5 runs per game (these 2 stats in home games this season) rank them as one of the dangerous lineups in MLB to face in their own stadium. While the Yanks should continue pounding the ball here, the Royals bats are unlikely to do as much damage against the Yanks Michael Pineda as they did at Kaufmann Stadium last week. The Royals slugging percentage on the road this season is a paltry .354 and KC has averaged just 3.4 runs per game away from home. They'll prove to be no match for Pineda who is 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA and sparkling 0.83 WHIP in his 4 home starts this season. Of course we don't advocate laying big juice in money line sports and that is why our play here is on the run line. Instead of laying a big price with the Yanks we are going for the nice plus money return here (currently +120) by laying the 1.5 runs with New York. 7 of of Kansas City's 9 losses this month have come by a multiple run margin. As for the Yankees, their win yesterday was a 1-run win but 15 of their 17 prior wins all came by two runs or more. We expect another home rout for the Yanks in this one. Bet the New York Yankees at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Monday!
|
05-17-17 |
Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET
A lot of nice value with low price to lay to have the +1.5 runs on the home dog Giants here. San Francisco continues to play the Dodgers tough and, in fact, with yesterday's win the Giants have now won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Also, two of San Francisco's last 3 losses have come by just a single run. That is why we like having the extra line value of the +1.5 runs here in what should be a pitchers duel this afternoon at AT & T Park. The Giants have won 6 of 9 games versus the Dodgers this season and Johnny Cueto has a strong 2.94 ERA in his 15 career outings versus the Dodgers. Even though LA's Clayton Kershaw has a lower ERA versus the Giants, the Dodgers ace southpaw did give up 4 runs (3 earned) on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in a 6-inning effort that ended in defeat against Cueto and the Giants earlier this month. Though Kershaw and the Dodgers would surely like to get revenge here, LA is likely to struggle just to win this game and it certainly is unlikely that the Dodgers will win it by 2 runs or more. Los Angeles is only 9-12 in road games this season. San Francisco is 50-24 in their last 74 May games and they are heating up again this month! The Giants are 6-2 in Cueto's 8 starts this season and one of those two defeats came by just a single run. Great value with the +1.5 runs here as that would have produced a 7-1 record in Cueto's 8 starts this season. Bet the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in day game action Wednesday!
|
05-16-17 |
Rays +1.5 v. Indians |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET
A lot of nice value with low price to lay to have the +1.5 runs on the road dog Rays here. Jake Odorizzi gets the start for Tampa Bay and he has a sparkling 2.61 ERA this season with an outstanding 0.81 WHIP as he continues to be tough to hit. The Indians have Danny Salazar on the mound and certainly he has some good long-term history but he has struggled this season. Salazar has a 5.20 ERA on the year and he has often been having to work out of the stretch as he has a 1.57 WHIP this season. Too many base runners via both hits and walks in recent starts have plagued the Cleveland right-hander. The Rays are 13-8 when off of a loss and yesterday's 1-run loss was the 3rd time in their last 6 defeats that their loss has come by just a single run. This is why we like having the additional value of the +1.5 runs here. Taking a look at Cleveland, they are only 10-10 in their last 20 games and only 4 of the 10 wins have come by more than a single run. That translates to a 16-4 record if you had played against Cleveland with +1.5 runs in each of their last 20 games. Considering all that as well as the fact that the Rays have a big pitching edge here, you can see why we like Tampa on the run line in this one. The odds makers are forecasting decent run production in this game and this a significant item to note here because Cleveland is 24-40 in their last 64 games that have had a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the Indians to add another loss to that record today but we're grabbing the +1.5 runs here as some added insurance on the road dog. Bet the TAMPA BAY RAYS at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Tuesday!
|
05-15-17 |
Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday at 10:15 PM ET
A lot of nice value with low price on having the +1.5 runs on the home dog Giants here. San Francisco has won 3 of their last 4 games but also 2 of their last 3 losses have come by just a single run. On the run line at +1.5 runs the Giants would be on a perfect 5-0 run at the betting window. Matt Cain will be on the bump for the G-men tonight and he is 2-0 in his 3 home starts this season with a rock solid 1.12 ERA! Cain loves pitching at home and he's also enjoyed success against the division rival Dodgers in recent starts. Cain's last 3 starts versus the Dodgers have seen him allow a total of just 4 earned runs in a solid 17 innings on the mound. LA will have Brandon McCarthy toeing the rubber tonight and he has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts against SF. Also, McCarthy was hit hard in most recent start as he gave up 4 earned runs on 8 hits in an outing that lasted only 5 innings against the Phillies about two weeks ago. McCarthy had been on the disabled list with a dislocated shoulder. Even though the injury was to his non-throwing shoulder we do not expect him to come back and be 100% on the mark in his first start. Although the Dodgers have been hot recently a lot of that had to do with playing a home-heavy schedule. On the season the Dodgers have a losing record in road games and we like the additional value of the +1.5 runs with the division rival home dog in this one. Based on home/road dichotomy the Giants have the pitching edge in this one. We look for Cain to throw another gem at AT & Park. Bet SAN FRANCISCO at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night West Coast action Monday!
|
05-13-17 |
Rays v. Red Sox -1.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET
We look for the Red Sox to bounce back after a tight loss yesterday but Boston is a large favorite on the money line. We get around that by playing them on the run line here as there is only a small price to lay to have the Red Sox at -1.5 runs and there is plenty of reasoning behind expecting them to win this game by 2 runs or more. Blake Snell toes the rubber for the Rays this afternoon and he his winless in his 7 starts this season. The Tampa left-hander has been hit hard in his recent starts with 22 hits allowed in 15 innings over his last 3 starts. He will prove to be no match for the Red Sox Chris Sale. Boston's ace southpaw has been a strikeout machine with 73 K's in 52 innings on the mound this season. The Red Sox are 5-2 in his starts this season while the Rays are just 2-5 in Snell's 7 starts this season. Sale has been particularly dominant in his last two starts with only 7 hits allowed in 14 innings and Boston has won those 2 games by a combined score of 22-8. That is part of the reason we feel comfortable laying the 1.5 runs. Another reason to feel comfortable is the fact that Boston's 18 wins this season have featured 13 victories by 2 runs or more. In fact, each of the Red Sox last 6 wins have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. 14 of the Rays 20 losses this season have come by 2 runs or more. Tampa Bay is only 4-8 against lefties this season. The Red Sox are 3-1 this season (and 30-10 their last 40) when they are a home favorite of -175 to -250. Of course we're not laying the big price here but you can see by those odds that the Red Sox have a high probability to win here and when they win they often win big. As for the Rays, when they lose, odds are they get beaten badly. Sale over Snell gives a dominating edge to the home team here. Bet the RED SOX at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early afternoon action Saturday!
|
04-04-17 |
Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Diego Padres Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET
The Padres got thoroughly embarrassed on opening day in a 14-3 loss yesterday in LA. Don't be surprised if Tuesday's Game 2 in this series plays out much differently than yesterday's 14-3 final. Teams often respond off of a beating and the Padres have gone 15-12 the past two seasons when off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The key here is we can strengthen our winning odds because we can get the Padres at +1.5 runs by taking them on the run line and there is very nearly zero juice to have the +1.5 runs. With this being a night game and the penchant that both these clubs have for playing tight low-scoring ball games in the heavy west coast air of Southern California at night, we expect a much tighter ball game tonight. The Dodgers have gone just 48-46 the past two seasons against southpaw starters and that has cost their backers -15.7 net units. On the run line at -1.5 the Dodgers have a losing record against lefties and Clayton Richard managed to scatter hits and allow just 1 earned run in his last start at Dodger Stadium on September 2nd. He's certainly capable of repeating that performance here on Tuesday night. The Dodgers have Kenta Maeda on the mound and, after a hot start last season he had a 4.25 ERA after the All Star break as hitters adjusted to him in his rookie season. Richard had a 2.52 ERA with the Padres in 11 games (9 starts) and we look for another strong outing from him here. Bet the PADRES at +1.5 on the Run Line in late night West Coast action Tuesday night!
|
11-01-16 |
Cubs v. Indians +1.5 |
|
9-3 |
Loss |
-130 |
5 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cleveland Indians Run Line (+1.5) vs Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8 PM ET
The last time Jake Arrieta was on the hill for the Cubs was the only time in this series that Chicago has won a game by more than a run. The series is 3-2 Indians but playing Cleveland at +1.5 runs in each of the 5 games would have netted a 4-1 record and that looks like a great value here in Game 6 with the Indians offered on the run line at a very fair price. Before Arrieta beat the Indians earlier this series, the Cubs had actually lost 10 of his last 17 starts. The Indians will have Josh Tomlin toeing the rubber this evening and the Indians have won 7 of his last 8 starts. Tomlin has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts. The Cubs have been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 6 games and, overall, have averaged just 7 hits during this stretch. The Indians have hit .284 in home games this season and came into Game 5 having reached double digits in hits in 2 of the first 4 games. Look for the Indians to make the most of this opportunity to close out this series in Game 6 and, if they do fall short, it should be by just a single run. In the Cubs last 20 games they've only managed 8 wins by more than a run. The rest of the games were losses or victories by a margin of just one run. The oddsmakers set a total of 7 on this game and the Cubs have won only 6 of 15 road games this season that had a total set at 7 or less. The Indians have won 4 of 6 home games this season with a total set at 7 or less. Bet the Indians +1.5 runs on Tuesday evening on the RUN LINE.
|
10-15-16 |
Dodgers v. Cubs -1.5 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
113 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line -1.5 runs vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET
The Cubs are 14-2 in Jon Lester's home starts this season and the Dodgers are known for struggling at the plate against left-handers this season with a 22-25 mark against southpaws compared to a 72-48 mark against right-handers. Of course the biggest key here is that this isn't just "any" left-hander either as it is a dominating southpaw toeing the rubber at Wrigley Field tonight. Lester is 11-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his 16 home outings this season. He has given up just 1 earned run in 15 innings against the Dodgers this season. He should get plenty of run support here too, which is what makes the run line (laying the -1.5 runs to get a plus money return) so attractive here. The Cubs hitters should pound a struggling Kenta Maeda. The Dodgers right-hander is 0-3 with an 11.17 ERA in his last three starts. We can get a +115 return with the Cubs at -1.5 runs and this is a great value spot based on the sizable pitching advantages in addition to home field edge. Bet the CUBS on the run line in Game 1 of the NLCS Saturday!
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10-09-16 |
Rangers +1.5 v. Blue Jays |
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6-7 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Rangers Run Line (+1.5) @ Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET
The Rangers are trying to avoid elimination and they have a good shot at doing just that but we'll grab the run line here as there is excellent line value being offered with the +1.5 runs available at a pick'em price. While it was certainly disappointing for the Rangers to fall short in Game Two at home and drop into an 0-2 hole in this series, they simply were "done in" by the long ball. Texas actually outhit Toronto 13 to 6 in the game. Tonight we expect the Rangers to again hold the edge in hits but, this time, that success at the plate should translate to the scoreboard as well. Aaron Sanchez gets the start for the Blue Jays and this year was his first year as a full-time starter. That said, this is his first-ever playoff start. Texas will have Colby Lewis toeing the rubber in this one and he has a 2.38 ERA in 9 career playoff outings including 8 starts. Also, Lewis went 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his 9 road starts this season. The Rangers right-hander also held the Blue Jays to just 5 earned runs in his 14 innings over two starts against them this season. The Jays Sanchez has not enjoyed the same success against the Rangers as he has given up 9 earned runs in his 13 and 2 / 3 innings versus Texas this season. Though Sanchez has a great record on the season, Toronto is only 5-5 in his last 10 starts and 2 of those 5 wins came by just a single run. The Rangers are 8-4 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Blue Jays are 11-7 in their last 18 games but 4 of those wins came by just a single run so Toronto is on a 7-11 run when laying 1.5 runs. BET the RANGERS +1.5 runs on Sunday evening on the RUN LINE.
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10-08-16 |
Giants +1.5 v. Cubs |
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2-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5) @ Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET
With yesterday's 1-0 win, the Cubs are now 13-5 in their last 18 home games. However, that was the 7th one-run win out of those 13 victories. That makes the Cubs an ugly 6-12 at -1.5 runs in their last 18 home games. That is why there is clearly value here in having the Giants at +1.5 runs in what could be either another tight win for the Cubs or even an outright upset win for the Giants. San Francisco has Jeff Samardzija toeing the rubber for this one and he has pitched very well this season and 7 of his last 9 road starts have been decided by just a single run. We are expecting another tight well-pitched ballgame just like we saw last night but it would not be a surprise to see the Giants get the upset win. The added value is there with the +1.5 runs though. The Cubs have lost 2 of the last 3 home starts Kyle Hendricks has made and Chicago also has lost each of his last two starts against the Giants. Amazingly, 6 straight Cubs/Giants games have been one run games. We wouldn't be surprised to see that streak reach 7 in a row tonight. We'll grab the RUN LINE at +1.5 runs here as we expect an upset win or another tight, one-run loss for the Giants in this one Saturday.
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09-25-16 |
Cardinals v. Cubs -1.5 |
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1-3 |
Win
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134 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5) vs St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET
The Cubs are playing in their regular season home finale and it's a big Sunday night match-up with the Cardinals. Even though the Cubs have already clinched home-field for the post-season they certainly don't want to disappoint the home fans in their final regular season home game on the schedule. That said, we expect the Cubs lineup to be quite solid for this game. Even if the Cubs do rest a few regulars here - since they've already locked up the NL Central division title and home-field edge in NL playoffs - the fact is they will have a huge edge on the mound tonight. Chicago opened up as a fairly pricey money line favorite in this game but the line has dropped a little and, by taking the run line, we actually have the ability to get a plus money return (in the +125 to +135 range) on the Cubs -1.5 runs. Jon Lester has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All Star Break and, most recently, has produced 10 straight quality starts. In these games he has gone 7-0 with a 1.05 ERA. The veteran left-hander has also fared very well at home this season with a 9-2 record and 1.86 ERA. The Cardinals Carlos Martinez will prove to be no match for him. Martinez has given up 13 earned runs in the 17 innings over his last 3 starts against the Cubs. To put that in perspective in terms of the mismatch today, Lester has given up only 2 earned runs in the 14 innings over his last 2 starts against the Cards. The Cardinals are on an 8-9 run and 7 of the 9 losses have come by a margin of at least 2 runs! In fact, those 9 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 5 runs! As for the Cubs, 9 of their last 10 wins have come by at least two runs. Also, Chicago has gone 23-7 in Lester's starts this season and 17 of the 23 wins have come by at least 2 runs. We'll grab the plus money odds on the RUN LINE here as we expect a blowout win for the Chicago Cubs at -1.5 RUNS Sunday.
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09-20-16 |
Reds v. Cubs -1.5 |
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1-6 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
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ASA Tuesday MLB 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8 PM ET: The Cubs got back on track with a 5-2 win over the Reds yesterday. Even if the Cubs continue to rest some regulars here and there - since they've already locked up the NL Central division title - the fact is they will have huge edges in certain situations and this is one of them. Chicago opened up as a 3 to 1 money line favorite in this game but the line has dropped a little and, by taking the run line, the juice is very reasonable (-125 to -135 range) on the Cubs -1.5 runs. Jon Lester has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All Star Break and, most recently, has produced 9 straight quality starts. In these games he has gone 7-0 with a 1.02 ERA. The veteran left-hander has also fared very well at home this season with an 8-2 record and 1.91 ERA. The Reds Josh Smith will prove to be no match for him. This is his first start of the season as he has been working out of the bullpen. In fact, Smith threw 62 pitches in a relief effort on Saturday. Having already been a bit stretched out in that game, this will likely be a rather short outing for him and could turn into a "bullpen day" for the Reds and Cincinnati has one of the worst bullpens in the league. The Reds are on an 8-14 run and all 14 losses have come by a margin of at least 2 runs! As for the Cubs, 6 of their last 7 wins have come by at least two runs. Also, Chicago has gone 22-7 in Lester's starts this season and 16 of the 22 runs have come by at least 2 runs. We'll lay the small price on the RUN LINE here as we expect a blowout win for the Chicago Cubs at -1.5 RUNS Tuesday.
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09-18-16 |
Padres v. Rockies -1.5 |
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3-6 |
Win
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115 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
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ASA Sunday MLB 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line -1.5 runs vs San Diego Padres @ 4:10 ET: Chad Bettis will be toeing the rubber for the Rockies this afternoon and he has a 1.57 ERA in his last three starts with a sparkling 0.57 WHIP! Bettis has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in the six starts he has made against the Padres in his career. The Rockies are 10-2 in home starts made by Bettis this season and 9 of the 10 wins (including 8 in a row) have come by at least two runs. That is why the run line with the Rockies makes our play list today as Bettis should continue rolling and also get plenty of run support. San Diego will have Jarred Cosart on the mound and he is winless in his 11 starts this season and has compiled a 6.66 ERA away from home. The Padres are 3-8 in his starts this year and San Diego is an ugly 5-18 in Sunday games this season. Yesterday's shutout loss was the 7th time in their last 12 games that the Padres have been held to 3 runs or less. The Rockies are rolling at the plate with an average of 7 runs per game in their last 5 games. We'll grab the line value here by laying the 1.5 runs with Colorado on the RUN LINE Sunday.
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09-09-16 |
Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 |
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1-4 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
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ASA Friday MLB 9* Miami Marlins +1.5 runs -125 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7 ET Friday: Even though Clayton Kershaw will be on the mound for the Dodgers tonight, Jose Fernandez will be toeing the rubber for the Marlins this evening and this run line is offering particularly strong value with the home dog in this one. Of course we could play Miami on the money line and have some plus money returns available here but, in the event this game turns into a pitchers' duel that is decided by a single run it is well worth it at this price to have the +1.5 runs with the Marlins. The Dodgers Kershaw may not be 100% percent as this is his first start since a long stint on the disabled list. Also, Miami has been fantastic (a 21-10 record) against left-handed pitching this season! The Marlins Fernandez has been simply phenomenal at home this season. He is coming off of a rare, rough outing on the road but has been a different pitcher when on his home mound this season. Fernandez is 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA in his home starts this season. Also, Fernandez, when off of a start where he has allowed 4 earned runs or more, has responded by compiling a 1.41 ERA in his next start. This has has happened just 6 times this season and, in his very next start Fernandez has given up a total of only 6 earned runs in 38 innings! Fernandez current hot streak at home has seen him allow just a single earned run or less in 9 of his last 11 starts! Even when the Marlins do lose with Fernandez on the mound the games have been tight with 6 of the last 8 losses by just a single run. We'll grab the Marlins +1.5 runs on the RUN LINE Friday.
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09-07-16 |
Red Sox -1.5 v. Padres |
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7-2 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
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ASA Wednesday MLB 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 runs -135 @ San Diego @ 9 ET: The Red Sox will have southpaw ace David Price on the mound and he is back in top current form. Price has given up only 5 earned runs on just 15 hits in 27 innings over his last 4 starts. Overall, the Red Sox left-hander has had 5 straight quality starts. Boston has not only won all 5 of those starts, the margin of victory has been at least 4 runs in all 5 wins with a 7-run win on average! Currently tied at the top of the AL East division with Toronto, this spot is certainly magnified for Price and he is a "big game" pitcher. As for the Padres, they are merely "playing out" the season and they will have a struggling right-hander toeing the rubber tonight. Jarred Cosart gets the start for San Diego. Even though he had not been giving a lot of earned runs recently, the floodgates finally opened up in his most recent start. Cosart gave up 7 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. There had been signs this was coming though as Cosart had given up 13 hits in 10 and 2 / 3 innings over his two prior starts. Cosart now faces a Red Sox team whose last 6 wins have all come by at least two runs. Also, the Padres have lost by at least 2 runs in 15 of their last 18 defeats. That said, there is great line value here with BoSox on the run line as this win should come by at least two runs and we can lay minimal juice by grabbing Boston and David Price on the run line at -1.5 runs Wednesday night.
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