#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.

#211/212 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Indiana vs Notre Dame, Friday at 8 PM ET - Both defensive units are the best teams on the field in this game. Both are top 10 defense in YPG & YPP & Scoring D. Not only that, the defensive strengths match up very well vs each offense. The Irish want to run the ball and IU has the #1 rush defense in the country allowing just 71 YPG on the season. The Hoosiers offense ranks much higher in passing YPG compared to rushing YPG and the Notre Dame defense ranks #3 in the nation allowing just 157 YPG through the air. The Indiana offense has great scoring numbers putting up 43 PPG, however the 2 best defenses they’ve faced shut them down. Versus Ohio State, the Hoosiers had 15 points on 153 total yards, and versus Michigan they had 20 points on 264 total yards. On the other side, the Notre Dame offense faced very few high level defensive teams. They faced off vs 3 teams that ended the season in the top 30 in total defense. Army, who faced an incredibly weak schedule so their numbers on offense and defense were misleading, Miami OH, wo played in the MAC so same story, and Northern Illinois, who played in the MAC as well. Indiana, who ranks #2 in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed, will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season. Both teams are very slow paced with the Irish ranking 108th in seconds per play and Indiana ranking 104th. The weather doesn’t look great in South Bend in Friday night (windchills in the teens and 10+ MPH winds) and we think both teams struggle offensively. Under is the call.

#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.

#201/202 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Western Kentucky vs James Madison, Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Western Kentucky has multiple players in the transfer portal including 10 starters. Some of these players will play and some won’t. Starting QB Veltkamp will transfer but he is going to play in this game. However, even with Veltkamp playing down the stretch of the regular season, the Hilltopper offense fell off a cliff. The last 4 games of the season this offense scored 7, 21, 19 and 12 points. Veltkamp had only 4 TD’s during that stretch with 3 interceptions with WKU averaging just 309 YPG. Now this offense, which will most likely be shorthanded, faced a JMU defense that ranks 25th in total defense and 16th in YPP allowed. The Hilltoppers only faced 3 defenses this season that ended the year ranked in the top 50 in total defense and they averaged 12.6 PPG in those games. While we think James Madison’s defense will be tough to crack here, the Dukes offense will struggle. They will be starting their 3rd string QB Billy Atkins in this game who has thrown 1 pass the entire season. In his 4 year career at JMU, Atkins has completed only 29 passes and his career completion percentage is just 49%. We look for the James Madison offense to rely heavily on the run here (28th in the country in carries per game) which should shorten this game eating clock. The WKU defense ranks 11th nationally vs the pass so the obvious game plan for the Dukes is ground and pound. The Hilltopper didn’t have great total defense numbers but they were very good at keep teams off the scoreboard. They held 10 of their 13 opponents to 21 points or less. The weather doesn’t look great in Boca Raton with rain and 10+ MPH winds expected. Take the Under here.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Nebraska vs Iowa, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The weather will be cold in Iowa City on Friday night (temps in the low 20’s at kickoff) but very light winds so the offenses should be able to use their full arsenal both on the ground and through the air. Iowa was historically an Under team, however this year that has changed dramatically. The Hawkeyes 9-2 to the Over this season and they are averaging 29 PPG which is up from 15 PPG last season. At home they’ve put up at least 40 points (by themselves) 4 times including 3 Big 10 games. They are facing a Nebraska defense that hasn’t been great down the stretch. Last week they allowed 25 points to Wisconsin but it could have been worse as the Badgers averaged 7.4 YPP in that game. The Huskers have allowed at least 6.0 YPP in 4 straight games and over their last 5 games they’ve allowed an average of 31 PPG. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers played outstanding last week with 44 points on almost 500 yards vs a Wisconsin defense that allowed 16 points to Oregon a week earlier. New OC Dana Holgersen took over just a few weeks ago and their offense is taking shape nicely as he and the players get accustomed to what needs to be done. QB Railoa has really started to play well under Holgorsen completing over 70% of his passes in each of the last 2 games for nearly 500 yards through the air. A huge weight was lifted off Nebraska’s shoulders last week as their win over Wisconsin got them to bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. They can play loose here and be aggressive on offense. These to Big 10 rivals have gotten to at least 41 points in 10 of their last 11 meetings with the only exception being last year when Iowa had the worst offense in the nation (both total offense and scoring) and the total was set at 25 points. We look for both teams to get to at least 20 here which puts it Over the total.

#181/182 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER 44.5 Points - Air Force at Nevada, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This O/U number reflects the Air Force team we saw early in the season that struggled to move the football offensively and put points on the board. AF scored 7 or less points in 3 of their first five games and couldn’t get their vaunted running game going. They’ve made a QB change and the offense has taken off the last two weeks against Fresno State and Oregon State. Against Fresno, who ranks 14th in YPP defense, they ran it for 344 total yards at 4.3 yards per carry and put up 38-points. Last week against OSU they amassed 409 total yards and 28-points. This Air Force offense will face limited resistance from a Wolfpack D that is 96th in rushing yards allowed per game and 102nd in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. Nevada should put up points in this game too and they rank 45th in rushing yards per game at 178.5 and yards per rush at 4.8 per carry. Air Force is 89th in rushing yards allowed per game and 101st in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. The Wolfpack have put up 21-points in recent conference games against Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State who all rank significantly higher than Air Force defensively. These two teams did not meet last season but the two prior they scored 68 and 80-points. This game won’t get to those numbers but it will get over 45-total points.

#363/364 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Over 57.5 Points - Kansas vs BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We were on Kansas last week and mentioned they are playing very well right now especially on offense. They proceeded to put up 45 points on 532 yards vs a solid ISU defense. They’ve really kicked it in gear on that side of the ball averaging 36 PPG over their last 4 games. Their lowest point total during that stretch was 27 vs KSU but had over 400 yards of offense so that point total should have been higher. In their last 4 games KU has averaged 452 YPG on 7.2 YPP. Impressive to say the least. The problem with the Jayhawks is their defense. Last week they led big vs ISU (38-13 in the 3rd quarter) but the KU defense let the Cyclones score 3 TD’s in the final 20:00 minutes of game time. ISU averaged over 7.0 YPP in the game. KU’s defense has allowed at least 29 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only exception being Houston who ranks 127th in total offense. BYU’s offense wasn’t great last week vs a solid Utah defense (22 points) but prior to that they had scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games. In last week’s game they were playing a Utah offense that can’t score and was down to their 3rd string QB so BYU wasn’t pushed to score a bunch of points (BYU won 22-21). The Cougars average 34 PPG on the season ranking them in the top 30 nationally. These teams have combined to go 12-6 to the Over this year with BYU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 5 and KU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last year they met in Kansas and put up 65 total points with the total set at 56.5. Weather looks perfect in Provo on Saturday night with temps in the mid 30’s but almost no wind. This one is a shootout and we like the Over.

#317/318 ASA PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points – Wyoming vs Colorado State, Friday at 8 PM ET - The season long stats for Wyoming’s offense aren’t impressive but you can throw out the first month of the season because this team is moving the ball and putting points on the board as of late. The Cowboys have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 28 PPG during that 5 game stretch. That success should continue vs a CSU defense that ranks 104th in total defense. We expect the Rams to also put up solid offensive numbers vs a Wyoming defense that also ranks outside the top 100 (115th) in total defense this season. CSU’s offense has scored at least 31 points in 3 of their last 5 games and they’ve reached at least 21 points in 6 of their last 8 games, most of those vs teams with better defenses than this Wyoming squad. CSU has reached at least 55 total points in 3 of their last 5 games and Wyoming games have gotten to at least 50 points in 4 of their last 5. With 2 defenses ranked outside the top 100 and good weather on tap (temps in the 30’s but almost no wind) these teams should fare well offensively. Both are easily capable of topping 21 points which should get us to this Over.

#385/386 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points Wyoming vs New Mexico, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total due to recent results (last weekend) from these 2 teams. This total sits at 60 to 61 points as of this writing on Friday and our power ratings say this total should be 66. NM games are averaging 73.5 total points and that includes last week’s game where they lost to CSU 17-6. That game was very misleading as the Lobos put up over 450 yards on 6.0 YPP but had 4 turnovers. 3 of those turnovers were inside CSU territory taking away potential points for the Lobos. The 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards and both averaged 6.0 YPP which should result in a much higher scoring game. Prior to last week’s game New Mexico had scored at least 50 points in 3 straight games. They rank in the top 10 nationally in total offense and they play fast (14th nationally in offensive plays run per game). They should have big time success vs this Wyoming defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, AND pass defense. The Wyoming offense has poor overall numbers this season, but they are definitely trending up. After not topping 17 points in any of their first 4 games, the Cowboys have now reached at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week vs a Utah State defense that ranks almost identical to this New Mexico defense (those teams rank 132nd and 131st in total defense), Wyoming put up almost 500 yards on 6.4 YPP. They scored 25 points but it should have been more as they settled for 4 FG’s (6 total FG’s in the game between the 2 teams) and fumbled deep inside USU territory. The Cowboys were one of the slower paced teams in the country last year but under their new regime they are playing much faster this season. The weather looks perfect in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon with temps on the 60’s and very little wind. These teams have combined to play 16 games this season and 11 of those have gone Over the total. Both defenses rank outside the top 100 in pretty much every key category as we mentioned. Last year these 2 combined to score 61 points, yet both defenses had much better numbers than this year’s stop units. The projected score on this game based on the point spread (NM -7 to -8 range) is New Mexico 34.5, Wyoming 26.5. We’re confident both top those projected totals in this game. Over is the play.

#315/316 ASA PLAY ON Under 48.5 Points - Georgia State vs UConn, Friday at 7 PM ET - UConn’s defense is locked in right now allowing a total of 70 points over their last 5 games (14 PPG).  They rank 17th nationally in YPP allowed and they’ve allowed more than 23 points only once this season.  That defensive success shouldn’t change here vs a Georgia State offense that is averaging only 22 PPG (107th nationally).  The Panthers have topped 21 points only twice this season vs FBS opponents which isn’t overly impressive as 4 of the 6 FBS defenses they’ve faced rank below 100th in total defense.  This will be the best defense Georgia State (76th in total offense) has faced this season. On the other side of the ball, UConn has struggled offensively scoring 22, 20, and 17 points (offensive points) over their last 3 games.  They are averaging just 328 YPG in their last 3 that includes 2 opponents whose defense ranks outside the top 90.  The Huskies last 3 games have averaged 37 total points and with windy weather expected on Friday night, we look for a lower scoring game.  Under is the call.

#139/140 ASA PLAY ON OVER 60.5 Points – Kent State vs Western Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both offenses should have lots of success here. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Kent State ranks dead last in total defense allowing well over 500 YPG and WMU is much better ranking 127th giving up over 450 YPG. Kent has played 6 games this season vs FBS opponents and they’ve allowed at least 37 points in 5 of those games. The only team that didn’t reach that mark was BG last week, who had 27 points but only punted 3 times in 12 offensive possessions (missed FG & shut out on downs a few times). If we subtract their game vs FCS St Francis, the Golden Flashes have allowed 49.7 PPG (dead last in the NCAA). How are they going to slow down this WMU offense who is averaging 42 PPG in conference play (averaging 31.4 PPG overall)? Last week the Broncos put up 48 points and almost 500 yards on a Buffalo defense that was allowing 24.6 PPG entering the game. WMU’s defense, on the other hand, was terrible. The Bulls lit them up for 41 points and 550 total yards. That was a Buffalo offense that ranked 133rd nationally (out of 134 teams) entering the game averaging 244 YPG. Kent’s offensive numbers aren’t good overall this season, however those numbers are very misleading because they were shutout by Tennessee & Penn State, 2 of the top defenses in the nation. In MAC play, this Kent offense has looked solid averaging 25 PPG. They struggled last week vs Bowling Green, the top defense in the MAC and top 30 nationally, but prior to that they scored 30+ on Ball State and EMU. Weather looks good in Kalamazoo on Saturday with decent temps and light winds. These teams have met 5 times since 2012 and they’ve averaged more than 66 total points in those games. Take the Over.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON Under 54.5 Points – Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion at 7 PM ET - These 2 defenses don’t have great season long stats, but they’ve been playing lights out as of late.  ODU has held each of their last 2 opponents to 14 points and the only 2 teams that have topped 23 points on this defense are Virginia Tech and Coastal Carolina.  Last week’s defensive performance vs Texas State was very impressive holding the Bobcats to 14 points (they average 35 PPG – 20th nationally) on just 4.9 YPP (they average 6.4 YPP – 20th nationally).  Georgia Southern has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 points or less.  The only team since September 1st that has topped 23 points on this Panther defense is Ole Miss, one of the best offensive teams in the country.  Last week they completely shut down a James Madison team holding them to 14 points (they average 39 PPG – 10th nationally) on 253 total years (they average 436 YPG – 26th nationally).  Both of these offenses rank outside the top 100 in YPP so we’re not expecting either defense to slow up in this one.  The tempo stats for the season have both of these teams on the top 40 in seconds per play, however both have really slowed their pace over the last few games with both ranking outside the top 40 over the last 3 games.  The Sun Belt teams have faced each other twice, both games in the last 2 seasons, and both went under totaling 37 and 51 points.  Under is the call on Thursday.   

#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 57 Points – Georgia vs Texas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We anticipate both teams getting to at least 30 points here so we’ll roll with the Over. Texas has now scored at least 30 points in 18 of their last 20 games while UGA has put up at least 30 on the scoreboard in 20 of their last 24 games. Both offenses are in the top 20 in YPP and they both love air it out with UGA ranking 9th nationally in YPG passing and Texas ranking 11th. The QB’s in this one are high level with UGA’s Beck and the Horn’s Ewers ranking as 2 of the top 5 signal callers in next year’s draft. Defensively Georgia has fallen off rather drastically from recent editions. The Dogs currently rank 39th in total defense and 67th in YPP allowed (FBS opponents only). They have already allowed 2 opponents to top 30 points this season including last weekend vs a Mississippi State offense that entered the game ranked 99th in scoring at just 20 PPG (they put up 31 on UGA). Prior to this season, the Bulldog defense had allowed only 2 opponents to top 30 points since the start of the 2021 season. Quite a drastic drop off this year. They allowed 41 @ Alabama this season and the Texas offense is better than the Tide so the Horns should have plenty of success here. The Longhorn defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense but they’ve played NOBODY with an offensive pulse this season. The best offense they’ve faced this far is UTSA (ranked 71st in total offense) and the average rating of the offenses they’ve faced is 100th (total offense). This spot is very similar to last weekend when Ohio State entered their game vs Oregon as the #1 ranked defense nationally but had played a very weak schedule of offenses as well (98th for an average). The Ducks put up 30+ points on that #1 defense last week. We see a similar outcome here. Weather looks perfect in Austin on Saturday night and this is a have to “keep up” offensively game in our opinion. High scoring.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We think both teams have a great shot at reaching 30 points so our call is the Over in this one.  WKY is averaging 26 PPG on the season but they were shutout in week 1 vs Alabama so that number is a bit misleading.  If you take away the Bama game, the Hilltoppers are averaging 34 PPG.  They love to pass the ball (21st in pass attempts per game) and they average 280 YPG through the air which plays directly into SHSU’s defensive weakness.  The Bearkats are allowing over 20 completions per game (102nd) and while their overall passing yardage allowed isn’t terrible (64th), they’ve faced a very weak set of passing offenses to date.  The only 2 passing offenses they’ve encountered that currently rank inside the top 70 in passing YPG are Texas State, who threw for 326 yards, and Hawaii, who threw for 252 yards.  WKY’s QB Veltkamp is having a very solid season completing 70% of his passes with nearly 1,200 yards through the air.  He should pile up solid numbers here.  Sam Houston’s offense has been in a tear.  They have scored at least 31 points in 5 of their 6 games this season.  They are one of the best running teams in the nation (12th in rushing YPG & 5th in rushing attempts per game) and should do well here vs a Western defense that is allowing 162 YPG rushing (96th).  WKY’s defense is also allowing 6.0 YPP on the year which ranks them 108th in that category.  The Hilltoppers rank in the top 35 in tempo (seconds per play) and SHSU ranks in the top half of college football in that stat.  The weather looks perfect in Huntsville, TX for this one with temps in the 60’s and light winds at game time.  Lots of points expected and we’ll grab the Over.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 55 Points – Troy vs South Alabama, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - This Sun Belt rivalry has been a low scoring series and we don’t see that changing tonight.  Over the last decade these 2 have a record of 7-2-1 to the Under with the average total points scored just 40.  The last time these 2 topped tonight’s total (currently 55) was back in 2013, which is actually the only time this game has topped 55 points.  Troy’s offense lost pretty much everyone from last year and they have struggled to say the least.  They rank 110th in total offense and are averaging only 20 PPG (112th).  If we subtract their game vs FCS Florida A&M, the Trojans have not topped 26 points in any game this season.  South Alabama’s defense doesn’t have great numbers, however much of that is because of 2 games vs LSU where they allowed 42 points and North Texas (5th nationally in total offense) where they allowed 52 points.  In their other games the Jaguars have allowed 14, 16, 18, and 27 points.  South Alabama’s offense is solid (32nd in total offense) but if we subtract their game vs FCS Northwestern State where they scored 87, yes 87 points, the Jags are averaging just 26 PPG.  Troy loves to play a slow paced game (outside the top 100 in seconds per play) and they know they need to run the ball and keep this one low scoring to have a chance.  South Alabama is not a fast paced team (56th in tempo) so we don’t expect many offensive possessions in this game.  Under is the call.  

#115/116 ASA PLAY ON Over 45.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern’s pass defense is one of the worst in the nation (110th) and we expect them to get torched here by Maryland’s passing game which ranks 17th averaging over 300 YPG through the air.  Last week the Cats faced Indiana in Evanston in windy conditions right on Lake Michigan (NW temporary stadium is right on the lake) and despite those conditions the Hoosiers put up 41 points and over 300 yards passing.  The Terps offense ranks in the top 35 averaging 452 YPG and they have not been held below 24 points this season (they average 33 PPG).  NW starting QB Lausch has made some real noticeable progress since taking over for previous starter Wright a few weeks ago.  Lausch struggled in his first road start vs Washington (who has a top 10 defense) but looked really good last week vs the Hoosiers.  In that game Lausch threw for 243 yards and 2 TD’s in less than ideal conditions (windy).  NW put up 24 points in that loss.  We expect Lausch to have more success on Friday evening vs a Maryland defense that ranks 120th defending the pass allowing 270 YPG.  When these 2 met last year the total was set in the high 40’s and they flew over the total with 60 points.  These teams have faced off 4 times since Maryland joined the Big 10 and all 4 have totaled at least 46 points with an average of 55 total points.  The weather looks perfect in College Park on Friday night with temps in the low 60’s and light winds.  Over is the call.  

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Louisiana Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here in this CUSA battle.  MTSU ranks 98th in YPP on offense while La Tech ranks 119th.  They average 16 PPG and 19 PPG respectively. They only game in which MTSU topped 21 points was vs FCS Tennessee Tech and even in that game the Blue Raiders tallied only 328 total yards.  In this match up, they are facing a very solid La Tech defense that ranks 30th nationally in total defense and 23rd in YPP allowed at just 4.5.  The only team that topped 20 points vs this LT defense this season (in regulation) was NC State and even in that game the Wolfpack only had 23 offensive points (they scored a defensive TD for 30 points).  The Bulldogs have held every opponent to under their season PPG average this year including NC State if you subtract the defensive TD by the Wolfpack.  Offensively this Tech team is not good.  The only game in which they topped 325 total yards was vs FCS Nicholls State and in that game they only scored 25 points.  They have not topped 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents this season.  Last week, they faced an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 and the Bulldogs only put up 17 points (17-10 win).  MTSU’s defense ranks very low as well, however La Tech has struggled against every defense they’ve faced, good or bad.  The MTSU defense actually has a bit of momentum as well holding a potent Memphis offense to 24 points in their most recent game.  We don’t think either team gets into the mid 20’s here so Under is the play.    

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Over 58 Points – New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Two terrible defenses in this game will lead to a higher scoring game. These 2 rank 111th and 126th in total defense and 120th and 121st in scoring defense. The Jax State offense is rolling right now and should have their way vs this NMSU defense 30+ points in every game this season (minus their one FCS opponent). In their most recent game, the Aggies gave up 50 points and almost 600 yards to arch rival New Mexico. JSU has put up 141 points in their last 3 games alone (47 PPG) and they averaged over 500 YPG in those games. That shouldn’t change on Wednesday vs one of the worst defensive teams in the country. New Mexico State should also have offensive success in this game. Their offensive numbers aren’t great this season (19.6 PPG) but they’ve only faced one defense this season outside the top 100 (same range as JSU) and the Aggies put up 40 points in that game vs New Mexico. They also put up 24 points vs Liberty who has a top 35 defense. The Aggies strength on offense is their running game (155 YPG rushing) and that plays directly into JSU’s defensive weakness as they rank 118th defending the run. Jacksonville State plays as a very fast pace (9th in seconds per play) and NMSU is in the top half of the country in tempo. We should get plenty of offensive snaps in this game and with poor defensive teams, we’ll call for the Over in this game.

#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected.  Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP.  They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st).  The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season.  In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points.  The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB.  Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points.  The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State).  They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game.  Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air.  When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Let’s play Over in this one.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points - Illinois vs Nebraska, Friday at 8 PM ET - It’s the start of Big 10 play for these familiar foes and we look for a low scoring, grinder in Lincoln.  The last 2 seasons these rivals have generated 35 and 27 total points.  Both defenses are very good this season with Nebraska allowing a total of 20 points combined in their 3 games this year while Illinois has allowed 26 combined points in their 3 games.  They each shutdown the good offenses they’ve faced this season with Nebraska giving up just 10 points on 260 yards vs Colorado while Illinois gave up 17 points on 327 yards vs Kansas.  Nebraska looks improved offensively, however they’ve faced some suspect defenses (UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa).  Despite that, the Huskers rank just 56th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In their game vs the Buffs, who do not have a good defense, the Huskers scored 21 offensive points (they had a pick 6 for their 28 points) and just 334 yards.  Freshman QB Raiola has been solid but he now faces a legit defense in his first Big 10 game.  Illinois is in the same boat offensively facing some not so great defensive teams (Eastern Illinois, Kansas, and Central Michigan).  Despite that, the Illini only rank 74th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In one legit game vs Kansas, the Illini scored 16 offensive points (they had a pick 6 to get to 23 points), and they did not reach 300 total yards.  Both offenses are very slow paced with Illinois ranking 121st in seconds per play and Nebraska 115th.  Lots of defense in this one and we grab the Under.

#209/210 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Notre Dame vs Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Defenses should dominate here especially in the trenches.  Notre Dame and A&M have veteran defensive lines and the weak spot of each opposing offense in on the line.  Notre Dame is banged up on the offensive line and will not start a single upper classmen.  Two freshmen will start on the left side of the line and the total number of career college starts for this group is less than 10!  They are facing a veteran A&M defensive line that most have ranked in the top 5 nationally.  New Irish QB Leonard will be running for his life on Saturday and we don’t see any help from Notre Dame’s rushing attack.  Last year’s leading rusher Estime (1,300 yards) is gone and his “green” offensive line will be facing a defense that finished in the top 15 in rushing YPG and YPC allowed.  On the other side, A&M’s offense will also have problems here vs an Irish defense we have rated in the top 10 entering the season.  They also have a top 10 defensive line facing an Aggie offensive front that struggled last season and has 3 new starters this year.  A&M starting QB Wiegman was injured early last season and has only started 8 games in his career.  Both offenses have new OC’s so each are implementing a new system which can take some time to perfect.  The head coaches in this game, Elko for A&M and Freeman for ND, are both defensive minded.  From camp reports both defenses are well ahead of the offenses coming into this game and we look for low scoring, grinder here.  Take the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 56.5 Western Michigan at Wisconsin, 9 PM ET - The number on this game opened slightly higher at 56.5 and has since moved down in some books to a current line of 56. That spread on this game is 24 which means the oddsmakers are projecting Wisconsin to score 40 and Western Michigan 16. We don’t think either team gets to that number based on last season’s results. Wisconsin returns 71% of their defensive production from a unit last season that allowed 344YPG (35th), 5.0YPP (26th) and 20.2PPG (19th). This Badgers defense held 7 opponents to 17 or less points in 2023. Offensively the Badgers will rely on their running game which averaged 4.6YPR last season (38th) and 160RYPG (60th). Wisconsin had the 22nd rated 3rd down conversion percentage in college football last season which means extended drives for the Badgers offense. Wisconsin did not score 40+ points in a game last season and averaged 23.5PPG (87th) and lacked big plays with an offense that averaged 5.2YPP (79th). UW averaged just 6.1YPP passing which ranked 117th. Western Michigan returns 7 starters from last season’s defense and added a few power conference transfers. This Bronco defense was not very good a season ago, ranking 100th or worse in several key categories, but should be improved this season with the returning experience. Offensively we don’t see this Bronco putting up many points in this opener. WMU was 92nd in scoring a year ago at 22.6PPG, 107th in YPP at 4.8 and lacked explosiveness either running or passing. Clearly the dominant team in this matchup is the Badgers and we are betting their 5-1 home Under streak continues here.

ASA play on UNDER 55.5 SMU at Nevada, Saturday, 8 PM ET - Nevada won just 2 games a season ago and has a futures market of 2.5 wins this season. That alone tells us just how bad this team will be again in 2024. The Wolfpack have many deficiencies including an offense that averaged just 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th) last season. They return starting QB Lewis but that’s not a great thing considering he threw for just 1,313 yards last season with 2 TD’s to 6 INT’s and had a passer rating of 33.3. The Wolfpack will rely on their running game with two returning starters in the backfield. This Nevada offense produced 14 or less points in 6 games a year ago and our projections have them scoring around that number here. SMU has 8 starters returning on offense that scored 36.4PPG a year ago (10th) and averaged 446YPG (18th). But they weren’t necessarily a big play offense ranking 37th in Yards Per Play at 6.0. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th) and will use their advantage in the trenches against a Wolfpack defense that had problems stopping the run a year ago. SMU allowed just 19.2PPG a season ago while allowing just 4.5YPP (7th). Nevada will be better defensively with new coach Jeff Choate, but the Pack will struggle to score. SMU has no reason to run the score up late in this game and will look to stay healthy. It all adds up to an UNDER bet.

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON Under 55.5 Points – Florida State vs Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We expect both offenses to run the ball a lot in this game which will keep the clock running and shorten the game.  FSU averaged 32.8 PPG last season but we expect a decent drop off this year, especially early in the season.  That’s because the Noles lost nearly all of their production from last year and will rely on transfers at the skill positions learning a new system.  Their new QB is DJ Uiagalelei who had previous stops at Clemson and Oregon State.  He’s not overly accurate, completing only 57% of his passes last year which ranked him outside the top 90.  He’s working with 2 transfer receivers from Alabama and LSU who logged very little time last season.  HC Norvell has said he wants to rely on the running game more this season and we expect that here.  Georgia Tech loves to run the ball.  They led the ACC in rushing last season and they averaged nearly 40 carries per game.  They return 4 starters on the offensive line, their mobile QB King is back and their top RB returns.  More of the same this year for Tech as they keep it on the ground.  They’ll be facing an FSU defense that allowed less than 20 PPG a year ago and while they did lose some key defenders, they’ve recruited very well (and some key transfer portal additions on defense) so we don’t look for much of a drop off on that side of the ball.  Tech’s defense was not good a year ago.  They did upgrade at defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci from Duke who had the Blue Devils in the top 20 in scoring defense last year.  This game is in Ireland and the long travel hasn’t helped the offenses in past games played here.  In fact, there have been 4 games played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin and the average points scored in those games has been 48.8.  Under is our lean on Saturday.  

#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game.

#275/276 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 36 Points – Iowa vs Tennessee, Monday at 1 PM ET - We don’t see either of these teams getting to 20 points as we anticipate a full blown defensive battle. We know how poor Iowa’s offense has performed this season. They rank dead last in the nation in total offense average 240 YPG and put up only 16 PPG. They scored more than 15 points only once in their last 7 games and were shutout in the Big 10 Championship game vs Michigan. The Vols have some opt outs on both sides of the ball, but their defense is deep and talented. They finished in the top 15 nationally allowing opponents only 3.2 YPC which means Iowa will probably have to try and find success through the air which we don’t anticipate happening. The Hawkeyes finished 130th in passing YPG (123 YPG) and QB Hill, who took over after starter McNamara was injured, completed less than 50% of his passes and had only 5 TD’s in his 9 starts. Iowa’s defense, on the other hand, is outstanding. They finished in the top 5 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense (13 PPG). Even vs a high powered Michigan offense in the Big 10 Title game they held the Wolverines to 13 first downs and 213 total yards. The Tennessee offense wasn’t nearly as potent as it was last season (41st in scoring after finishing #1 in the nation last year) and they will be without a number of key components including starting QB Milton. Starting at QB in this game will be true freshman Iamaleava who only attempted 26 passes this season all in mop up duty blowouts vs poor teams. We don’t see him having much success vs this Iowa defense meaning Tennessee will need a big day on the ground vs the Hawkeye defense that allowed 3.0 YPC (4th nationally). Defenses dominate this one and Under is the play.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis.

#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game.

#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner.

#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds.

#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up.

#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation.

#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over.

#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one.

#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect.

#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call.

#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here.

#353/354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 55 Points - Appalachian State at Old Dominion, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We expect a high scoring game between these two Sun Belt schools. Last season when these same two teams met, they produced only 41-points, but they amassed 892 total yards with App State converting 7.8 yards per play, ODU was just under 6.0YPP. Neither defense is very good as Old Dominion ranks 89th in yards per point defense, App State is worse, ranking 98th. The Mountaineers really struggle to stop the run allowing 5.4 yards per rush (123rd) and they haven’t faced a rushing attack as good as this ODU’s. In fact, you could argue App State’s rush D is even worse than the number indicated as two of the offenses they’ve faced this season rank 94th or worse. Old Dominion is 19th in the country in rushing yards per attempt at 5.4 and should gouge this Neer’s defense overland. On the flip side, ODU struggles to stop the pass and Appalachian State is very capable of hitting big plays with their passing attack. App State is averaging 11.7 yards per completion and average 266.7 passing YPG. The Monarchs rank 114th in opponents’ completion percentage at 64.9%, 100th in completions and 86th in passing YPG allowed. Those numbers come against a soft schedule of teams that don’t pass well too. These offenses both rank top 50 in yards per play offensively and ODU is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. App State isn’t slow either as they average a play run every 24.87 seconds which is 44th fastest. Easy call on the Over in this one.

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – James Madison vs Marshall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - JMU’s offense has been on a tear averaging 35 PPG on the season. If you take out their game vs a top notch Troy defense (16-14 final score), the Dukes have scored more than 30 in every other game with an average of 38 PPG. They should have big time success here vs a Marshall defense that has allowed 35, 48, and 41 points over their last 3 games and 2 of those opponents rank 84th (Old Dominion) and 109th (NC State) in total offense. The Herd defense put up solid numbers in their first 3 games of the season but their opponents were University of Albany (FCS), East Carolina (127th in scoring), and Virginia Tech (78th in scoring). Marshall is going to have to put points on the board to keep up in this game. We think they will. They are averaging 420 YPG and just over 30 PPG. The Herd offense is trending up with 106 points scored in their last 3 games (35 PPG) while averaging 447 total yards vs 3 defense that combined to allow an average of 380 YPG. Marshall’s strength offensively is throwing the ball averaging 265 YPG and completing almost 69% of their passes (21st nationally). They are facing a JMU defense who’s weakness is defending the pass allowing 310 YPG through the air which ranks them 129th out of 133 teams. Last week they “held” a potent Georgia Southern offense to 13 points, however the Eagles threw for over 300 yards but threw 3 interceptions in JMU territory including at the 15 and 23 yard line. GSU had plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Marshall games are averaging 59 total points this season and JMU games are averaging 56 total points. This is set to low and we like the Over.

#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 57 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Liberty, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - MTSU has been facing all out passing teams as of late and that is their weakness defensively. 3 of their last 4 opponents are pass first offenses (CSU, La Tech, and WKY all rank 110th or lower in rush offense) while MTSU’s defense ranks outside the top 110 in pass defense. Now they face a Liberty offense that runs the ball more than pretty much anyone in the country. The Flames are 4th nationally in rush attempts per game and rushing play percentage. First of all that eats clock and secondly MTSU has been very solid vs the run. They are allowing 135 YPG rushing and only 3.9 YPC. Only 1 team has topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Blue Raider defense and that was Alabama in their season opener. They held SEC opponent Missouri to just 2.4 YPC and Jacksonville State (14th nationally in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. Liberty will have success but we don’t think it will be easy. Offensively MTSU is not great to say the least. They rank 79th in YPP and 108th in scoring averaging only 22 PPG. Those numbers look even worse consider their last 5 opponents have been Murray State (FCS), Colorado State (131st in total defense), Western Kentucky (128th in total defense), Jacksonville St (67th in total defense), and La Tech (64th in total defense). Now they face a Liberty stop unit that ranks 18th nationally in total defense and 24th in YPP allowed. The Flames are giving up only 17 PPG and they’ve allowed just 35 total points their last 3 games. MTSU will struggle on offense in this one. Because they are primarily a running team, Liberty is very slow paced (117th in pace) as they like get ahead and control the tempo. That’s how we see this game playing out. Liberty games are averaging 53 total points per game and MTSU games are averaging 54 total points, both less than this current number. We see this game ending the high 40’s making Under the play.

#183/184 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Boise State vs Colorado State, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - We were on CSU vs Utah State Over last week and while the Rams offense didn’t perform as we expected, their defense did. CSU allowed the Aggies to roll up 44 points on 639 total yards! That side of the ball will be another huge concern here vs a Boise offense that can be every bit as explosive as Utah State. The Broncos have now topped 30 points in 4 straight games and their QB rotation of Green (dangerous dual threat) and Madsen (solid passer) has been tough to defend the last 2 games alone putting up 67 total points and over 1,000 yards! Boise’s offense has been a thorn in CSU’s side to say the least scoring an average of 42.3 PPG over the last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome on Saturday. The problem the Broncos have had is on the other side of the ball. Their defense stinks. They rank 132nd (out of 133) allowing opponents to average almost 7.0 YPP. They’re terrible defending the pass ranking 125th nationally which is a big problem here facing a CSU offense that averaged 352 YPG through the air (4th best in the country). Boise is allowing 34 PPG on the season including giving up 31 points on 439 total yards to a bad San Diego State offense that ranks 122nd in scoring and averages 16 PPG. The only team that didn’t reach at least 27 points on this defense was UCF who had 18 points but also ripped off 530 total yards of offense which would normally yield 35 points based on UCF’s yards per point numbers this season. The Rams offense had one of the worst performances last week at USU and the game still almost hit 70 total points. They only ran 52 offensive plays in the game (Utah State ran 84 plays) and turned the ball over 5 times. CSU had 17 points in the first quarter and either turned the ball over on downs or had a turnover on 4 of their final 5 possessions. Prior to last week the Rams has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and we expect them to top that again here. Weather looks good in Fort Collins for Saturday night and we expect both teams to get into the 30’s here. Take the Over.

#189/190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers continue to set UCLA totals too high (4-1 Under this season) as this is not the offensive juggernaut and poor defensive team they’ve been the last few seasons. In fact, the Bruins are now the exact opposite. Defense is absolutely the strength of this team. UCLA’s stop unit ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and YPC allowed. They have not given up more than 17 points in any game this season and they’ve allowed a grand total of 5 offensive TD’s in 5 games this season! Last week they held a very potent Washington State, who came into the game averaging 40 PPG on 472 YPG, to just 10 offensive points on 216 total yards. Offensively the Bruins are breaking in a new freshman QB Moore and vs FBS teams this season they are only averaging 23 PPG, more than 2 full TD’s down from last year’s numbers. And this year’s numbers have come against 3 defenses ranked 91st, 92nd, and 117th in total defense. The only good defense UCLA has faced is Utah (ranked 22nd in total defense) and the Utes held them to 7 points. Saturday’s opponent, Oregon State, will be the 2nd best defense UCLA has faced this season at 39th nationally. Oregon State’s offense has had some high scoring outputs but similarly to UCLA, they haven’t played a great slate of defenses. They’ve faced just 1 stop unit ranked in the top 60 in total defense this season and that was Utah once again (ranked 22nd) and that game ended 21-7 in favor of Oregon State. With the spread at -3.5 to -4 in favor of the Beavers, the final projected score in this game is in the 29-25 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals. Under here.

#179/180 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57 Points – Fresno State vs Utah State, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the CSU vs Utah State Over last week and cashed nicely. We’re coming right back on the Over with USU at home again this week. The Aggies offense is humming right now to say the least. They put up 44 points last week on 639 total yards and were quite balanced doing it (387 yards passing / 252 yards rushing). In their last 3 games the USU offense has tallied 114 points (39 PPG) on nearly 1,600 total yards. Senior QB Legas, who began the season as the starter, stepped in for an injured Hillestad and has been outstanding with almost 600 yards passing and 7 TD’s in the last 6 quarters! They’re taking on a Fresno defense that’s not nearly as good as their overall numbers in our opinion. They rank in the top 15 in total defense but they’ve faced just an atrocious set of offenses to date. They’ve faced 4 FBS offenses this season that rank outside the top 95 in total offense including 3 that rank 110th or lower. That includes a Kent offense that ranks dead last nationally in many categories including total offense. The best FBS offense they’ve faced this season is Purdue (63rd in total offense) who hit them for 35 points. FCS Eastern Washington also had 30+ points on this defense. We look for USU to be successful putting points on the board. The Aggies will be the highest ranked offense Fresno has faced this season. Fresno’s offense should be successful as well. The Bulldogs had scored at least 27 points in every game this season prior to last week’s 19 point output vs a very good Wyoming defense that struggled with Texas & Texas Tech but has shut everyone else down. The USU defense ranks outside the top 100 allowing 33 PPG and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in every game this year including vs Iowa and UConn who rank 131st and 108th respectively in total offense. Because they are so potent offensively and struggle on defense USU games are averaging 70 total points this season. These teams have combined to play 12 games this season and 9 have gone Over the total and we expect another high scoring game on Friday Night.

#117/118 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – SMU vs East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU’s offense is bad. They have not topped 14 offensive points in any game this season with the exception of their game vs FCS Gardner Webb. The Pirates did have 28 points vs App State, however 14 of those points came from defensive fumble returns for TD’s. Minus their game vs Gardner Webb, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 129th nationally out of 133 teams. They’ll be facing an SMU defense that has been very good this season allowing opponents to average only 4.9 YPP ranking them in the top 30. The only team that really played well vs SMU offensively was TCU who put up 34 points. Even when they faced Oklahoma, the Mustangs defense held the Sooners to 28 points and 365 total yards which was a season low in yardage for OU. We expect ECU to struggle again on offense. On the other side of the ball, SMU’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are averaging just 25 PPG vs FBS opponents after putting up 36 PPG last season. On a YPP basis the Stangs rank just 73rd averaging 5.3 after ranking in the top 35 last year at 5.9 YPP. ECU’s defense has at least been respectable, unlike their offense, ranking 72nd nationally allowing 387 YPG despite playing very good offenses Michigan & App State so far this season. ECU games have topped 50 total points only once in 5 games this season. SMU games have topped 52 points only once in 5 games this season. With SMU tabbed as a 12 point favorite the projected score is right around 31-19 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals so we’ll go Under in this one.

#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 62 Points – Colorado State vs Utah State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two very fast paced teams here so we’ll have plenty of opportunities on offense. USU ranks 6th nationally in seconds per play and CSU ranks 11th in that category. Both average over 70 offensive plays per game and on the other side of the ball both defenses rank in the top 30 in opponent offensive plays per game with USU allowing 73 opponent snaps per game and CSU allowing 84! So we know we’ll be looking at a lot of offensive snaps here and we have no doubt both teams will be very successful on that side of the ball. The Aggies have been very good offensively with the exception of their games vs Air Force & Iowa, 2 of the top defenses in the country. In their other 3 games they’ve scored 78, 38, and 34 points and now they face a Colorado State defense that ranks 125th in total defense allowing 40+ points in 2 of their 4 games. The Aggies did lose their starting QB Hillstead last week but he is a freshman and was not the starter at the beginning of the season. Their backup QB Legas was the starter for the first 2 games this year, is a senior, was last year’s starter, and has thrown for 600 yards this season. He came in last week for an injured Hillstead and threw for over 200 yards and 3 TD’s in less than one half of play. On the flip side, CSU averages 6.6 YPP (top 30 nationally) and they’ve scored 30+ in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Rams are facing a Utah State defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense as well. Both teams air it out and neither runs the ball much. CSU ranks 4th nationally in pass attempts per game and 3rd in YPG through the air while averaging only 26 carries per game (128th). USU ranks 19th in pass attempts per game and 35th in YPG passing while only averaging 30 carries per game (111th). On the defensive side the Rams rank 132nd out of 133 teams in pass defense and Utah State ranks 94th in that stat so we don’t look for either offense to change their style here. Offensive strengths playing directly into defensive weaknesses for both teams. Colorado State games are averaging 60 PPG this season and they’ve topped 60 total points in 3 of their 4 games. Utah State games are averaging 71 total points this season and EVERY team they’ve played has been slow paced, all ranked outside the top 90 in seconds per play. These teams have played 9 combined games this season with 7 going Over the total. Both easily get into the 30’s here and we wouldn’t be at all shocked if both push 40 or higher. Weather looks perfect for this game in Logan Utah and we look for LOTS of scoring.

#355/356 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 45.5 Points – Kent State vs Ohio, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Ohio’s defense has been outstanding this year ranking 12th nationally allowing just 4.3 YPP. The Bobcats have played 5 games this season and allowed 7, 7, 10, 10 and 20 points in those games. On Saturday they face a Kent offense that has been brutal this year scoring 3, 6, 6, and 10 points in their 4 games vs FBS opponents and they rank dead last (133rd) averaging 3.4 YPP. The Golden Flashes have scored a grand total of ONE TD in their 4 FBS games. Ohio isn’t much better offensive ranking 113th averaging 4.6 YPP. We’re confident Kent will do very little on offense vs this high level Ohio defense. So how will the Kent defense stack up vs the Bobcats? Their defense has actually be solid with the exception of 2 games this year vs UCF and Fresno State, two top 25 scoring offenses. Ohio’s offense is nowhere near the level of those two offenses. Versus their other 3 opponents, Kent allowed 10, 23, and 28 points. Facing a solid SEC team @ Arkansas, the Razors scored only 21 offensive points on 308 total yards. We anticipate Ohio getting a lead here and then slowing the pace keeping the clock running with their rushing attack (38 rushing attempts per game – 36th nationally) and grinding out a win. Speaking of pace, both of these MAC teams play very slow with Ohio ranking 119th in plays per second and Kent ranking 80th. The spread and total suggest a 35-10 type final and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under here.

#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Over 59.5 Points – South Carolina vs Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - FAST! That’s what this game is going to be like with more than the normal number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee is the 2nd fastest paced team in college football with a play run every 19.8 seconds. South Carolina prefers to play fast also with the 19th fastest paced offense. The Vols run 73 plays per game, SC runs 70.3 which are both more than average in college football. Last year when these two teams met, they produced 101 total points and over 1,100 total yards of offense. The Gamecocks offense with QB Rattler can move the chains as evidenced by their 8th ranked passing offense averaging 340PYPG. He is completing 73.4% of his pass attempts at a 9.8 yards/attempt clip and owns the 15th best QB rating in college football. Tennessee has impressive pass defense statistics, but they haven’t faced a team that ranks higher than 50th in passing yards per game. The Vols are going to put up points in this game against a suspect Gamecocks defense. SoutH Carolina just gave up 30-points to Mississippi State and over 500-total yards of offense to the Bulldogs. The week before they gave up just 24-points to Georgia which was misleading considering the Dawgs had 470-total yards of offense. Tennessee is 24th in YPG, 31st in YPP at 6.6 and average 35PPG. The Vols tend to score more at home as they average 45PPG at home since 2021 and last season they scored 53.7PPG at home. This game has a shootout written all over it.

#191/192 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 45.5 Points – Georgia vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Neither offense is peaking right now in our opinion. Auburn’s offense has been brutal in their 2 games vs Power 5 teams this season. Versus Cal they scored only 14 points and vs Texas A&M it was just 10 points. Facing those 2 teams, the Tigers had a total of 430 yards (in both games combined) on just 3.5 YPP. The Auburn QB Thorne, transfer from Michigan State who wasn’t good with the Spartans, has thrown for 138 total yards in those 2 games. That won’t get it done here vs the best defense he’s played and a team that’s held Auburn to 14 points or less in each of the last 6 meetings. UGA is still breaking in a new QB Carson Beck and a different system under new OC Bobo. They’ve put up some big points but they’ve faced mainly poor defenses including UAB (130th in total defense), South Carolina (122nd) and Ball State (102nd in total defense). The only SEC defense they’ve faced, and not a great one at that, was South Carolina who held the Bulldogs to 24 points. UGA only had 3 points at halftime in that game and Auburn will easily be the best stop unit they’ve faced (32nd in total defense). It’s also Georgia’s first road game which will make it tough for the offense to play at a peak level. As good as the Bulldogs offense has been over the last 4 or 5 seasons, they’ve averaged just 24 PPG their last 5 trips to Auburn. The last 10 times these SEC rivals have met, they totaled 44 points or fewer 8 times. We see another low scoring game here and we grab the Under.

#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – Cincinnati vs BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - BYU held their first 2 opponents to 16 combined points and it looks like they may have regressed allowing 31 and 38 points in their last 2 games vs Arkansas and Kansas. Not the case in our opinion. A closer look reveals they only gave up 24 offensive points in each of those 2 games vs high level offenses. KU last week scored 2 defensive TD’s and was held to just 351 total yards by this BYU defense. A week earlier Arkansas had an 88 yard punt return in the box score. We expect defensive success here for BYU vs a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 total points in their last 2 games vs Miami OH & Oklahoma. If we subtract their 66 point effort vs FCS Eastern Kentucky, the Bearcats are averaging just 19 PPG under their new head coach Satterfield and new OC Brendel who came over from Va Tech who finished 118th in scoring last season. So while we feel BYU will have the edge when Cincy has the ball, we feel the Bearcats will have the same advantage when they are on defense. BYU’s offense averages just 4.5 YPP (109th nationally) this season vs their 3 FBS teams they’ve faced. While it looks like their offense has lit it up the last 2 weeks scoring 38 points vs Arkansas and 31 vs Kansas, the fact is they had 280 total yards vs the Razors and 366 vs KU. They were extremely fortunate to score the points they did based on their offensive yardage output. They face a solid Cincy defense that has allowed 21 points or less in 3 of their 4 games including holding Oklahoma to 20 points last Saturday. That’s an Oklahoma offense that averaged 58 PPG in their first 3 games of the season. Neither offense is fast paced (both middle of the pack in seconds per play) both struggle to convert on 3rd downs (both outside the top 90) which makes it difficult to extend drives. We like the Under here on Friday Night.

#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 36.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We realize this total is very low for a college game but it’s warranted in our opinion. Sam Houston State’s offense is bad and there is no other way around that. They have scored a total of 10 points in 3 games this year and they rank dead last in CFB in total offense averaging just 148 YPG. Yes you read that correctly. The Bearkats have 24 total first downs in 3 games. We don’t look for a turnaround here as they are facing a JSU defense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in YPP allowed and shut out Eastern Michigan 21-0 last week. The Gamecock defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents this year to 14 points or fewer. The Sam Houston State defense did give up 38 points last week to a potent Houston offense, however prior to that they held BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 points in their first 2 games. To put those SHSU defensive efforts into perspective, Air Force has scored 49, 45, and 32 in their other 3 games while BYU scored 41, 31, and 27 vs their 3 other opponents. While Jacksonville State’s offense is better than Sam Houston’s not existent offense, the Gamecocks are far from a juggernaut scoring 17, 16, and 21 points in their 3 games vs FBS opponents. Looking even deeper, those 3 opponents currently rank 76th, 96th, and 106th in total defense vs FBS opponent so it’s not as if JSU has played a gauntlet of great defenses. Neither team has a potent passing attack as they rank 129th and 124th in YPG passing and both love to run the ball which eats clock. JSU is 4-0 to the Under this year by an average of almost 19 PPG. SHSU is 2-1 to the Under this year. The projected final score here based on the total and the line (JSU -6.5) is 22-15 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under is the play.

#377/378 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Ohio vs Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Ohio’s defense has been lights out this season holding their 4 opponents to a combined 47 total points. If we subtract defensive TD’s, they’ve allowed 40 total points or just 10 PPG. Last week vs Big 12 Iowa State they allowed 7 points on a TD with 4:00 minutes to go in the game and ISU had just 38 yards rushing on 1.7 YPC. They rank to 15 nationally in total defense and top 25 in yards per point allowed. The Ohio offense leaves a lot to be desired. They are slow paced (92nd in plays per second) and if we subtract their 27 point “outburst” vs FCS Long Island, they’ve scored 13, 17, and 10 points. The Bobcats rank 115th in YPP offensive efficiency averaging only 4.3 YPP despite facing defenses that allow 6.4, 5.1 and 4.0 YPP. Bowling Green has an offense that is struggling and they’ve slowed their pace this season. Their offense is dead even with Ohio’s averaging only 4.3 YPP this season and after ranking 84th in plays per second last season they’ve dropped to 126th in that stat this season. Their defense isn’t great but they’ve improved allowing 350 YPG vs FBS opponents this year (Liberty & Michigan) after allowing 418 YPG last season. Last week they held a very good Michigan offense to just 312 total yards. This one shapes up to be a low scoring, grinder. Under is the play.

#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Army vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - Last year UTSA’s offense was the strength of their team, this year it’s definitely been the defense. The offense has struggled with a new offensive coordinator scoring only 37 points combined in their 2 games. Defensively they’ve allowed only 30 points on the season in 2 games and their run defense has been fantastic allowing only 2 YPC which will come in handy vs Army on Thursday. The Cadets also have a new offensive coordinator and while they are trying to throw the ball more often (27 pass attempts in 2 games) the fact is they don’t have the personnel to be very successful through the air and they are still a heavy run team (50 rush attempts per game – 5th nationally). Army continues to be a very slow paced team as well averaging only 1 play every 34 seconds which is the 3rd slowest pace in the nation so far this season. If we throw out last week’s result when they faced a bad FCS team (Delaware State), Army scored only 13 points vs UL Monroe and their only TD in that game was scored by their defense. That was facing a ULM defense that ranked 108th last season in total defense. On the other side of the ball, the Cadets only allowed 17 points in that game vs ULM with both Warhawk TD’s coming in the final 6:00 minutes of the game. UTSA has faced the Army offense 3 of the last 4 seasons, including holding the Cadets to 3.2 YPC last season, so they know how to defend it. Last year was a high scoring game in OT, however the previous 2 totaled 42 and 44 points. We like this one to stay Under the total.

#325/326 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Washington State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 met last year and Wazzou won 17-14 in a lower scoring game but the script flips this weekend in Pullman. Last year the Badgers offense was fairly pedestrian ranking 74th nationally in scoring (25 PPG) and 89th in total offense (357 YPG) yet still put up over 400 yards on this Cougar defense. Multiple mistakes (3 turnover & 11 penalties) kept their scoring output much lower than it should have been. Last week, under new OC Longo who came over for UNC, the Badgers rolled up 38 points (dropped TD pass would have made it 45) and over 500 yards vs a Buffalo team that had a winning record last year and won their bowl game. Wisconsin also is a much more up tempo team this year under Longo and they ran 71 snaps last week. Their defense, as we suspected, looks like they’ve taken a step back. They lost their top 2 pass rushers and they weren’t able to put any pressure on Buffalo QB Snyder with 0 sacks on the day. This week they face a very accomplished passer in Cam Ward (451 yards passing last week) and he is very elusive. If UW couldn’t get any pressure at home vs a MAC team, we doubt they bother Ward much this week. Wazzou has a new OC Arbuckle who came over from Western Kentucky, one of the fastest paced teams in college football last year. They showed last week that’s the way they will play this year as well with 87 offensive snaps, 3rd most of any team last weekend, in a 50-24 win over Colorado State. Defensively Washington State allowed a CSU team, that averaged 13 PPG last season (127th nationally) to put up 24 points last Saturday. Both defenses are facing much tougher situations this week and we’re not sure either will be able to stop the other’s offense. We like Over the total here.

ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 55.5 Stanford @ Hawaii, Friday 11 PM ET - This line opened at 58.5 total points but has since been bet down to the current number of 55.5. We like Under in what shapes up to be a low scoring game. Hawaii and Timmy Chang are expected to play fast with their uptempo offense but that is not what we saw in Week 0 when they faced Vanderbilt. The Warriors ran a play every 29.4 seconds which is dramatically slower than their pace a year ago of 23.9 plays per second. In fact, the 29.4 plays/second in last week’s game would have ranked them 126th slowest last season. Hawaii ran 60 plays last week against Vandy and produced 391 total yards of offense. The Rainbow Warriors defense was better than expected against the Commodores as they allowed 297 total yards on 56-plays. Hawaii was 113th in scoring a year ago at 19.4PPG. Stanford comes into this season in complete rebuild mode with a young roster and new coaching staff. They lack experience at the QB position and return just 3 starters on that side of the football. This Cardinal team averaged just 19.5PPG a season ago which was 109th in the nation. Defensively the Cards return 9 starters and should be improved from a season ago when they allowed 34.2PPG (115th). But also remember those stats came against a schedule that featured six of the top 30 scoring teams in college football last season. Hawaii is in a tough travel situation and playing conditions aren’t ideal with high winds expected for this game. The Under trend continues in Week 1.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 56.5 Hawaii @ Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM ET - There will be some contrasting styles of play of display Saturday when the Rainbow Warriors take on the Commodores at Vanderbilt. Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang wants to play fast with his Run and Shoot offense as the Warriors averaged 72.2 plays per game a season ago which was 29th most. Even though the Warriors played fast, it didn’t translate to a lot of scoring. Hawaii was 124th in points per drive, 121st in Yards Per Point Scored at 18.3, 102nd in Red Zone Attempts per game at 2.9 and 103red in offensive TD’s per game. Hawaii also averaged just 4.9 Yards Per Play which ranked 98th in the nation. Hawaii returns 5 starters on that side of the football and even though they want to play fast, it will be tough sledding against a SEC defense. Hawaii had some terrible defense statistics a year ago allowing 34.7PPG but they also faced some top ranked offenses such as Western Kentucky, Michigan and Fresno State. Vanderbilt wants to run the football, dominate possession time, and grind down opponents. The Dores were 119th in pace of play a season ago and also struggled to put up points. Vanderbilt was 120th in points per drive, 79th in Yards Per Point scored at 14.8, 103rd in Red Zone Attempts per game and 86th in offensive TD’s per game at 2.6. Vandy averaged just 5.1 Yards Per Play last season. The Commodores gave up 36PPG last season but take a look at the gauntlet of offenses they faced: Wake Forest, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee who were all some of the highest scoring teams in college football. Last season when these two teams met, they combined for 73 total points. Vandy scored on a 87-yards rushing TD and had two fumble returns for touchdowns. Vanderbilt will again rely on their running game here as they did last season when they gouged the Warriors for over 400-rushing yards.

#307/308 ASA 8* PLAY ON UNDER 48.5 Points – Ohio U @ San Diego State - Saturday at 7 PM ET - Two slow tempo teams here will lead to a lower scoring game. Ohio was ranked 103rd in seconds per play last season and SDSU was 119th. The Aztecs passing game was atrocious last season ranking outside the top 100 in passing YPG, completions per game, and attempts per game. New OC Lindley wants to pass more this season, however we’re not sure he has the horses to do that. They lost their top 2 WR’s and the SDSU QB Mayden, who was actually a safety last year before they transitioned him to QB mid-season, was OK at best (59% completions with 12 TD’s and 10 picks in his 8 starts). He faces an Ohio defense that was not good the first half of last season (allowed 40 PPG thru first 6 games) but played great the 2nd half of the season (allowed 19 PPG their final 8 games) after getting acclimated to new DC Nowinsky’s schemes. Now in their 2nd year under this system, we expect the Bobcat defense to play very well. On the other side, Ohio’s offense will struggle with this very good SDSU defense that finished in the top 15 nationally in both total defense and YPP allowed. Bobcat QB Rourke was solid last year but is coming off an ACL tear last November and will have to ease his way back into things. The 2 top tier defenses he faced last season (Penn St & Iowa St) held Ohio to 10 points each. Last year the Aztecs played host to Toledo, who beat Ohio in the MAC Championship game, and held the Rockets potent offense (averaged 31 PPG last year) to just 14 points (17-14 final score). San Diego State has played 48 games since the start of the 2019 season and only 8 of those games have topped 50 total points. Let’s go Under here.

#283/284 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 53 Points – Penn State vs Utah, Monday at 5 PM ET - Both of these offenses are capable of putting up big points. Utah averages 40 PPG while PSU averages 35 PPG on the season. The Utes put up at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season and PSU scored at least 30 in 10 of their 12 games. Both defenses had very good overall seasonal numbers, however those were bolstered by facing a number of weak offenses. Utah was involved in 6 games this season vs top 35 offenses. In those games the Utes defense allowed an average of 30 PPG in those games. PSU has faced 2 offenses ranked in the top 35 (OSU & Michigan) and they allowed 44 & 41 points in those 2 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 35 nationally for comparison’s sake. Both are also very balanced and tough to defend as neither are one dimensional. Two of the top cover corners in CFB will be missing in this game with Porter opting out for PSU and Phillips for Utah. That should absolutely help both passing attacks in this one. We have 2 experienced, high level QB’s competing and both dual threat which will make it tough on the opposing defenses. Utah’s QB Rising has thrown for 5,500 yards & 45 TD’s while rushing for 900 yards in his career. PSU’s Clifford has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career with 84 TD’s while rushing for more than 1,000 yards. The weather was originally looking slightly rainy but the new forecast as of Sunday says light winds (less than 5 MPH) with rain holding off until late in the game if it rains at all. 53 total points is too low and we’ll take the Over.

#279/280 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 64 Points - Tulane vs USC, Monday 1 PM ET - This game has all the makings of a shootout with both teams putting up big offensive numbers. The Trojans were the 3rd highest scoring team in college football this season at 41PPG. Tulane was far behind as they put up 35PPG which ranked 21st. USC puts up on average nearly 500YPG (5th most), pass for 325YPG (5th) and run it for 174YPG which ranks 51st. The Green Wave have some impressive offensive statistics of their own as they average 434YPG (34th), throw it for 236YPG (58th) and run it for 197YPG (31st). Defensively the Trojans rank 101st in YPG allowed and 112th in passing YPG given up at 266YPG. But they are not quite as bad as those numbers as they play in the higher scoring Pac12. Tulane has some deceiving defensive numbers as they rank 32nd in YPG allowed 18th against the pass and 73rd versus the run, but those numbers come against a weak AAC. In games that Tulane has been involved in recently they have combined for 60 or more points in 5 of their last seven games. On the season they are 7-6 to the Over. USC has a 10-3 Over record this season and 7 of their last ten games have finished with 60 or more points. Both offenses will shine here in a high scoring affair.

#243/244 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - Lots of uncertainty in this game with tons of opt outs and transfer portal situations for each team. We do know this, neither starting QB will take the field and their back ups aren’t great. Wisconsin will most likely split time between senior Chase Wolf who has thrown 31 career passes and freshman Myles Burkett who played briefly in 2 games this season attempting 5 total passes. The Badgers will rely heavily on their running game, as per usual, and their top RB Allen is still banged up. Oklahoma State will go with either Gunnar Gundy or Garret Rangel who combined to complete barely 50% of their passes with more interceptions than TD’s this season when in relief of starter Spencer Sanders who is out here. When Gundy was in the game vs Big 12 opponents OSU ran 54 total plays for 177 yards (3.2 YPP) and scored 10 points. Rangel started and finished 2 Big 12 games and OSU averaged 17.5 PPG (both losses) in those 2 games vs Kansas & WVU who both rank outside the top 100 in total defense. Now they are facing a Wisconsin team that is always good defensively and will be playing with a little extra motivation as their DC Jim Leonhard will be coaching his final game for the Badgers. OSU scored 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and will struggle vs a Wisconsin defense ranked 13th nationally. The Badgers put up 16 points or fewer in each of their last 3 games and that was with starting QB Mertz in the line up. The Cowboy defense struggled early but played better down the stretch leading to 5 straight unders to close out the regular season. Their overall numbers aren’t great defensively, however they were facing high powered Big 12 attacks week in and week out and this Wisconsin team is nowhere near that especially at the QB position. We expect both offenses to struggle and we’ll take the Under.

#231/232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 58.5 Points – Wake Forest vs Missouri, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is being played in Tampa and the weather looks decent with temps in the low 50’s at kickoff and light winds. Wake’s offense is easily the strength of their team. The average 37 PPG and they’ve been held under 30 points only twice this season vs NC State & Louisville. Those are 2 top 35 defenses and Wake moved the ball well on both (400+ yards in both games) but had a ridiculous 11 turnovers in those 2 games alone which took away MANY scoring chances. Even with that the Deacs still scored 21 points in both of those games. They are facing a solid Mizzou defense that ranks near those 2 stop units, however the Tigers will be depleted on that side of the ball. Both starting DE’s who lead the team in sacks will not play in this game and they are very thin at safety with a few not playing. The Tigers had solid defensive numbers but when they played high potent teams they struggled at times and the teams they slowed down were the lower tier offensive teams in the SEC (Vandy, Auburn, Kentucky). Wake’s defense was not good. They rank 94th overall, 95th in scoring defense, and 116th vs the pass. They’ve allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games and 7 of their 11 games vs FBS opponents this season. Missouri’s QB Cook is a duel threat (2500 yards passing and 550 rushing) and WF has struggled with those type of signal callers. Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, Liberty, and UNC all have duel threat QB’s and they torched WF for an average of 41 PPG. The Deacons had only 3 totals all season set below 60 and 2 of those went well Over the total and the one that went under was close (under by 3 points) and should have gone Over based on the total yardage. We confident that WF will score in this game and Mizzou will be able to keep up vs a poor defense. Over.

ASA top play on 10* - #227/228 OVER 43 Air Force vs. Baylor, Thursday 7:30 PM ET - We are betting Over on this game and expect both teams to get into the 20’s. The number itself stood out to us immediately when we looked at past results for both teams and the lines that were posted on those contests. For instance, Air Force played San Diego State the last game of the season and the O/U was set at 43. San Diego State isn’t on the same planet offensively as Baylor as the Aztecs were 109th in scoring (21PPG), 116th in total YPG and 119th in passing. AF also played Colorado State at the end of the season, who is worse than SDST offensively and that O/U was also 43. The Bears averaged just under 34PPG with an offense that ranked 37th in YPG gained, 61st in passing and 33rd in rushing. Baylor played in one game this season that had a Total below 52 and that was against Iowa State. ISU’s defense is significantly better than an overrated Falcons defense. Air Force is 1st in the nation defensively in YPG allowed 1st against the pass, 8th versus the run and allowed just 13.3PPG. BUT the vast majority of the teams they’ve faced have been horrible on offense making the Falcons defensive statistics very misleading. Baylor wasn't as good defensively this season (recently fired D-coordinator) after allowing 26.6PPG on the season and being near average in most defensive categories. The Bears allowed 29 plus points in the last four games of the season.

#225/226 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Western Kentucky vs South Alabama, Wed at 9 PM ET - This game is being played in the Louisiana Super Dome so we’re getting perfect conditions for scoring. WKU has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation ranking 10th in total offense and 2nd in passing offense while averaging 36 PPG. QB Austin Reed entered the transfer portal but after only a few days decided to come back to the Hilltoppers so he will play in this game. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards with 36 TD’s this season. USA’s defense is rated very highly (11th nationally) but they’ve played an extremely easy slate of offenses this season. The average ranking of the offenses they faced this season was 82nd and they faced 5 offense ranked outside the top 100. The 2 top tier offenses South Alabama faced were UCLA and Georgia Southern who scored 32 and 31 points respectively. As far as pass offenses go, the Jags only faced 1 ranked inside the top 30 and now they take on the 2nd best passing offense in the nation. South Alabama doesn’t get much pub for their offense but they were very good. They averaged 32 PPG on the season and they scored at least 27 points in every game but 2 this year. They only defense that really slowed them down was Troy who was ranked as a top 10 stop unit. WKU ranks 70th in total defense and 5 of their last 9 opponents scored at least 30 points vs this defense. South Alabama is very balanced on offense and should have plenty of success in this game. Both teams are more than capable of getting to 30+ points here and we’ll grab the Over.

#213/214 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Rice vs Southern Miss, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - We do like USM to win this game but we’re very wary of laying nearly a TD with a team that simply doesn’t score many points so the Under is our play in this one. Southern Miss ranks 94th in points scored and outside the top 100 in total offense. If we throw out their game vs FCS Northwestern State where they put up 64 points, the Eagles topped 27 points just once all season and over their last 8 games they only topped 23 points one time. Defensively they are solid holding teams to an average of 23 PPG on the season. They should be able to control this Rice offense that scored just 34 total points over their last 3 games and those games were vs defenses ranked 124th, 90th, and 70th, all well below this USM stop unit. That offensive ineptness coincided with their starting QB McMahon getting injured and the Owls having to use an inexperienced QB. It looks like freshman Padgett will get the start at QB in this game and he has attempted only 40 passes this year completing just 50% of those throws. Neither of these teams play up tempo ranking 69th and 118th in plays per second so we look for a slow paced game without many possessions. The weather in Mobile on Saturday could be rainy and we expect a low scoring game here. Take the Under.

#203/204 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 55.5 Points – Troy vs UTSA, Friday at 3 PM ET - Troy has fantastic overall defensive numbers but they’ve faced an easy slate of offensive opponents. The last 8 opponents they’ve played rank 49th, 120th, 112th, 89th, 86th, 40th, 115th, and 109th in total offense. That means the teams they’ve faced since October 1st have an average rank of 90th in total offense. Now they face a UTSA team that ranks 9th in total offense and has scored at least 30 points in every game but 1 this season. The Roadrunners have scored 40+ points in over half their games this season (7). UTSA has a veteran QB Harris that is one of the better “unknown” QB’s in the nation. They rank 12th nationally in passing YPG and Troy hasn’t faced a proficient passing offense since October 1st when WKY put up over 400 yards through the air on the Trojans. We expect UTSA to be successful offensively in this game. Same goes for Troy. They struggled offensively at times this year but found their rhythm at the end of the year scoring 45, 48, and 34 points over their last 3 games. The Trojans will be facing a UTSA defense that ranks 90th in total defense and 101st vs the pass where Troy has been proficient averaging 253 YPG through the air. Weather looks great in Orlando on Friday afternoon and we expect a lot of offense. OVER is the play in the Cure Bowl on Friday.

ASA play on 8* UNDER 60 Eastern Michigan at Kent State, 6 PM ET - Let’s get some early action down on the first MAC game of the day on Wednesday night when EMU travels to Kent State. Kent State has an explosive offense that is 38th in the nation in total YPG and 19th in rushing but Eastern allows just 5.3-yards per play which is 57th. KSU averages 24.9PPG which is 77th in the country, EMU scores an average of 26.1PPG (72nd). Eastern lacks an explosive offense as they average just 4.9YPPL which ranks 99th. Kent State is hovering around the national average for YPPL at 5.5. This game will feature a heavy dose of the running game for Kent State who averages 43.4 rushing attempts per game which is 15th most in college football. EMU averages 37.9 RAPG which is 51st. Eastern has not had a total of 60+ points set on any of their games this season. Kent State has only gone Over the total in 1 of their last seven games and that was against Toledo who scored 52-points against them. The Under has hit in 3 straight meetings between these schools and 5 of the last seven.

#181/182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points – Kansas State vs Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There seems to be huge games every single weekend in the Big 12 and this Saturday is no exception when Kansas State takes on Baylor. Big 12 games this season have averaged 60PPG and these two teams have a combined Over record of 10-2 in conference play. The O/U on this game currently sits at 52.5 which is the second lowest number set by the Oddsmakers this season on both teams. The only games these two teams have played in with a lower number was against Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but also one of the best defensively. Looking closer at Baylor’s offense we see they’ve started to click with four straight games of 35+ points. The Bears have the 27th most efficient offense in college football, average 12.7 yards for every point scored (17th), 34.5PPG and 5.7-yards per play which is 43rd. Kansas State’s offense is 23rd in OEFF, average 6.2YPP (24th) and score 30.1PPG on the season. Baylor converts 44.25% of their 3rd downs and can extend drives. K-Stare has a red zone scoring percentage of 90.32% so when they get inside the 20-yards line they put up points. We are not ignoring the fact that the Wildcats have some solid defensive numbers, but they have also given up 34-points to Texas, 38 to TCU, 28 to Texas Tech and 34 to Oklahoma. The Bears are also good defensively, but they too have had a few lapses defensively allowing 35 to Oklahoma, 43 to West Virginia and 36 to Oklahoma State. Weather at game time in Waco looks perfect with temps in the 40’s and very light winds. This game gets to 59 or more points.

#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – Baylor vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Baylor just continues to pile on points week after week and this OU offense is better than their season long numbers which are still quite good. The Bears are 15th nationally averaging 38.5 PPG and they’ve put up at least 30 in all but 2 of their 8 games this season. They should continue that success here vs an Oklahoma defense that has been a sieve all season long ranking 114th in total D. Throw out their first 3 games vs Kent, UTEP, and Nebraska, and this Sooner defense has allowed 41, 55, 49, 42, and 13 points in Big 12 play. Last week their defense looked like they may have played pretty well holding Iowa State to 13 points, however the Cyclones gained 374 total yards including 300+ through the air. That’s an ISU offense that ranks dead last in the Big12 in total offense and scoring. This week is a whole different animal vs a Baylor offense that ranks 3rd in the conference in both scoring and total offense. Oklahoma’s offense is averaging a more than respectable 33 PPG on the season. However, they played 2 games without their starting QB Gabriel and in his absence they scored only 24 total points in those 2 games. With Gabriel in the lineup, the Sooners are averaging 40 PPG! The Baylor defense stepped up last week holding Texas Tech to 17 points (45-17 final) but prior to that the Bears were allowing 31.5 PPG in league play. We’re getting some value with this total. Last week OU’s game at ISU had a total set at 58. Now only 3 points higher despite Baylor being MUCH better offensively and worse defensively with Iowa State ranking #1 in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense. Let’s take the Over in this one.

#193/194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Wyoming vs Hawaii, Saturday at 12 Midnight ET - We have 2 of the worst offenses in college football in this game and we do not see them reaching 50 points. Hawaii ranks 115th in total offense (out of 131) and Wyoming ranks 114th. If we subtract games vs FCS opponents and any OT points, Wyoming is averaging 21 PPG which would rank them outside the top 100 and Hawaii is averaging just 17 PPG ranking them 115th. Both teams are slower paced as well with Wyoming ranking 108th averaging 1 offensive snap every 27 seconds and Hawaii averages 1 play every 25 seconds which is 54th nationally. Needless to say this should be a slower paced game without many offensive snaps. Defensively Wyoming is quite solid. They rank 55th in total YPG allowed and give up only 5.3 YPP. The Cowboys have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their last 2 opponents, Utah State & New Mexico, have very similar offensive numbers to Hawaii and Wyoming held them each to just 14 points. Hawaii’s defense does not have impressive year long numbers. However, they played some very impressive offenses early in the season including Michigan & Western Kentucky and gave up piles of yards and points in those games so the year long numbers aren’t overly accurate. As of late and playing lower tier offenses comparable to Wyoming, the Hawaii defense has been impressive. They have allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games including 16, 16, and 17 points the last 3 weeks after they had their bye back on October 1st. Last year these 2 faced off and scored 52 points and both offenses were drastically better than this year’s versions. We just don’t see either team doing much offensively here and we’ll grab the Under.

#151/152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 54 Points – Old Dominion vs Georgia State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We have this total set closer to 60 points and feel there is some solid value on the Over in this one. The Old Dominion offense is humming right now but this total doesn’t suggest that. This total seems to be set based on their year long numbers rather than their recent run. After averaging 18 PPG through their first 3 games of the season, ODU has put up an average of 31 PPG over their last 4 games. They are averaging 433 YPG during that 4 game stretch which would place them 35th nationally in total offense if we were to use those 4 games only. However, because of their early season struggles, they rank 72nd in total offense. It’s also possible this total is set lower than it should be in our opinion based on ODU’s game last week vs the high scoring Georgia Southern Eagles. The 2 teams combined to score 51 points despite the total being set at 66. That result was very misleading as the 2 teams combined for 861 total yards on 6.1 yards per play. There were 20 offensive possessions in that game and only 4 punts. In that game the 2 teams combined for 3 missed FG’s and 4 times they were shut out on downs. The Georgia State offense has been solid all year. They are averaging 28 PPG and that includes a 14 point performance vs South Carolina to open the season. Five of their last six totals have been set at 60+ points and the only won that was not was their game vs Army (was set at 54) and the Cadets run the ball 55 times per game and are one of the slowest paced teams in the country. That game was the only Georgia State game that landed below 59 points in their last 6 outings. Both offenses will have success here. The defenses are bad ranking 114th and 116th nationally (out of 131) in total defense. Unlike their game vs Army, ODU is a fast paced team ranking 20th in seconds per play and Georgia State ranks 10th in that category. With the spread set a GSU -3 the expected outcome of this game is 29-26. We like both teams to top their expected team total and wouldn’t be surprised of both got to 30 in this one. Over is the play.

#363/364 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 58.5 Points - Eastern Michigan vs Ball State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Let’s start with the defenses in this game, or should we say the lack of defense. In terms of basic scoring defense these two units rank near the bottom of college football in points allowed per game with EMU giving up 32.7PPG (113th) while Ball State allows 29.3PPG (89th). Both teams allow 5.3-Yards Per Play which is slightly above the national average, but these two teams have played the 124th and 119th easiest schedule. Ball State is 95th in Yards Per Point defense allowing 1-point for every 13 yards gained. EMU is 120th in YPPT defense giving up a point for every 11.6 yards gained. The offenses for both teams have had some highs and lows this season. Eastern Michigan has scored 30 or more points in 3 games against FBS schools but are coming off 10-points last week against Northern Illinois. UNI dominated the time of possession with their running game (287-rush yards) that is 29th best in the nation, which limited the Eagles offensive opportunities. That won’t be the case here as Ball State is 83rd in rushing at 133.7RYPG. Ball State is averaging 25.7PPG on the season but 30.3PPG in conference play. Pace of play favors a high scoring game here also with Ball State ranking as the 8th fastest paced team in college football, Eastern ranks 42nd. Historically this has been a high scoring series with 5 of the last six meetings going Over the total and 13 of the last sixteen overall.

#101/102 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 47 Points – Louisiana vs Marshall, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Louisiana offense has been struggling all season and it’s not a big surprise. After losing QB Lewis and a number of key offensive players, they ranked 113th in returning offensive production entering the season and it has showed. The rank outside the top 100 in total offense, rushing offense and passing offense. They’ve had one good offensive output this year vs Eastern Michigan in early September, but since then they’ve scored 21, 17, and 17 points their last 3 games vs Rice, UL Monroe, and South Alabama. The Rajun Cajuns scored a defensive or special teams TD in 2 of those 3 games so their offense is really averaging just 13.6 PPG over their last 3 games. They’ll be facing a really good Marshall defense in this game (ranked 12th nationally in total defense) so we don’t look for much offense from Louisiana. They are allowing just 15 PPG on the season and held Notre Dame to 21 points in an upset in South Bend in September. Offensively Marshall runs the ball, a lot. They average 45 rushing attempts per game ranking them 10th nationally. The ULL defense is solid vs the run allowing just 133 YPG on the ground. Neither team has an explosive passing attack ranking 99th and 105th in passing YPG. As you might expect when looking at the stats, neither team has a high level passing QB and both teams have rotated 2 QB’s this season. We expect a lot of running in this game which eats clock. Both defenses stop the run very well (Marshall is 3rd nationally in rush defense & ULL is 46th) so this could very well turn into a grinder. Marshall games this season are averaging 45 total PPG and Louisiana games are averaging 46 total PPG. We like the UNDER in this one.

ASA play on 8* OVER 57.5 Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers, 7:30 PM ET - In Friday night's action we like OVER the total in the Houston/Memphis game. These two teams met last year with Houston winning 31-13. The Cougs put up 462-total yards in the game compared to the Tigers 322. The difference this year is that Houston isn’t near as good defensively as they were a season ago. Last year the Cougars were 16th in Yards Per Play defense at 4.9 and gave up just 22PPG. This season they allow 5.5YPP (65th) and 34PPG (98th) respectively. This Memphis offense is more than capable of putting up points in this game as they rank 25th in scoring at 34.4PPG. The Tigers rank 17th in Yards Per Point offense at 11.7 so they score with bigger plays and not time-consuming drives. Memphis will also have a hard time stopping this Houston offense that is putting up 31PPG and 391YPG. The Tigers have given up 32+ points against the three good offenses they’ve faced this season and have allowed 28 or more points in 6 of their last eight games dating back to last season. Houston should be able to exploit a Memphis pass defense that is 123rd in the nation allowing 288-passing yards per game. An average college game this season finishes with 58 total points. This game is going to be higher scoring than ‘average’ given the pace of play and offensive/defensive advantages. BET OVER!

#211/212 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – Indiana vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in college football so we expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game. Indiana runs a play every 17 seconds which is 1st in the nation and Nebraska every 22 seconds which is 15th nationally. The defenses in this match up should provide lots of scoring opportunities to their opponents. The Husker defense has been brutal all season long. Throwing out their game vs FCS North Dakota, the Nebraska defense is allowing 42 PPG on the season vs Northwestern, Georgia Southern, and Oklahoma. Each of those teams scored their season high in points (minus FCS games) vs this Nebraska defense. Even a fairly pedestrian NW offense put up 31 points and over 500 yards! They rank outside the top 100 in scoring, rush & pass defense. The Huskers did fire their defensive coordinator after allowing 49 points to Oklahoma and appointed Bill Busch, their special teams coordinator to call plays on the defensive side of the ball. We don’t think it will matter. If the Huskers were EVER going to rally and play tough on defense it was after they fired head coach Frost going into their game vs Oklahoma. They fell flat again on that side of the ball giving up almost 600 yards. The Hoosier offense has been a bright spot this year averaging over 400 YPG and 29 PPG. Even vs 2 top tier defenses (Illinois & Cincinnati) both in the top 11 nationally in YPP allowed, the Hoosiers scored 23 and 24 points. On the other side of the ball the Indiana defense has not been good allowing 75 points in their last 2 games vs WKU & Cincinnati. Last week the Bearcats had 38 points at halftime before calling off the dogs in a 45-24 win. While their defense has been poor, the Nebraska offense has moved the ball this year averaging 455 YPG which ranks them 31st nationally. QB Thompson, a Texas transfer, has been solid averaging 250 YPG passing on 65% completions. He should shred an IU defense that has allowed almost 700 yards passing the last 2 weeks. Last year these 2 met in Indiana and the final score was 38-31 with almost 1,000 yards of total offense. We anticipate a fast paced, high scoring game in Lincoln on Saturday.

#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 57.5 Points - Cincinnati vs. Tulsa, Saturday at 7PM ET - There seems to be quite a bit of action on Tulsa in this matchup, but we feel the value is on the OVER. Last year when these two met they produced 48-points but Tulsa was stopped on 8 downs inside the 12-yard line in the last two minutes. The key to this bet or not is the status of Tulsa QB Brin who left last weeks game against Mississippi with an ankle sprain. The early reports are that he is available and will play Saturday but be sure to double-check prior to kickoff. Brin is 4th in passing yards per game this season at 358PYPG, 8th in passing TD’s and is completing 63% of his passes. Cincinnati may be without their top cornerback Bush here which also benefits Tulsa’s passing attack. On paper, the Bearcats have a solid pass D but inside the numbers tells a different story. Last week UC faced a pass-first team in Indiana and allowed 280-passing yards which is well above their season average of 182 (28th). That lofty national ranking is largely due to playing Arkansas, Miami OH and Kennesaw State. Arkansas and Miami rank 104th and 124th respectively in Pass O. Cincinnati is going to score their fair share in this game also. The Bearcats are 14th in passing yards per game, 39th in total yards per game and 16th in scoring. Tulsa’s defense has given up an average of 31.8PPG which ranks them 99th in the country. Lastly, both teams prefer to play fast with Cincinnati ranking 45th in plays per second, Tulsa ranks 25th. Lots of possessions means plenty of scoring here.

#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54 Points – Northern Illinois vs Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that stood out to us immediately was the pace of play for both teams. Kentucky takes 29.2 seconds to run a play which is the 123rd slowest tempo in college football. NIU plays at the exact same pace. UK is 111th in plays per game at 62.5. No. Illinois is 107th at 63-plays per/game. With a limited number of plays that means you need big plays to score a lot of points. UK is 78th in Yards Per Play at 5.3, NIU is 49th at 5.9. Kentucky hosted another MAC team in Miami OH earlier this season and that game finished with 50-total points. MIA OH was predicted as the best team in the conference in preseason rankings and they managed just 290-total yards of offense and 13-points against the Cats. Northern Illinois has given up 38-points in each of their last two games, but those big numbers came against the 14th highest scoring team in CFB and the 26th highest. Both teams have big conference games on deck so expect a sluggish game throughout.

#361/362 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 63 Points – Duke vs Kansas, Saturday at 12 PM ET - No this isn’t a college hoops match up of top 5 teams but it is a game with 2 solid offenses and 2 bad defense that should keep the scoreboard lighting up. Kansas HC Leipold is an offensive genius and has turned around every program he’s taken over. His UW Whitewater teams (Division 3) won 6 National Championships in his 8 years. He took over a Buffalo program that had a losing record when he came in and in his final year the Bulls had just 1 loss and was averaging 44 PPG. He has this Kansas team playing great offensively as they’ve scored 56, 55, and 48 points in their 3 games. They are coming off back to back road upsets @ West Virginia and @ Houston. They should have a field day vs a Duke defense that has OK overall numbers but they are very deceiving. The Blue Devils shut out Temple 30-0 to pad their defensive stats but the Owls have scored a grand total of 14 points vs their 2 FBS foes this season. In their 31-23 win over Northwestern, they allowed the Wildcats to gain over 500 total yards and the Cats blew numerous scoring opportunities. The Duke offense has looked very good scoring at least 30 points in every game this season. They face a Jayhawk defense that has played 2 FBS foes (WVU & Houston) and they’ve allowed 72 points in those 2 games combined. Both offenses look drastically better than last year’s which both finished outside the top 100 in total offense. Despite that, when these 2 met last year they put up 85 total points and over 1,100 total yards in a 52-33 Duke win. The weather in Lawrence looks perfect for a high scoring game on Saturday with temps around 80 degrees and very light winds. This one should be a shootout.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 57 Points – Florida State vs Louisville, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Louisville has been in 2 lower scoring games thus far, however the total yardage accumulated in those games tells us they points scored should have been much higher. In the Cardinals season opener vs Syracuse the 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards but scored just 38 total points. That means the 2 teams scored an average of 1 point for every 21 yards gained which is well below the college average of 1 point scored for every 14.7 yards. In their 2nd game vs UCF the total was set at 62 and the two combined to score just 34 points. However, as with their season opener, the yardage was quite high at 760 total yards which equates to 1 point for every 22 yards gained. The Louisville offense has crossed into opponents territory 11 times already this season and scored just 3 TD’s. We expect those numbers to ramp up considerably as this is a team that averaged 32 PPG last year and they have one of the top QB’s in the ACC Cunningham. We’ve been impressed with the FSU offense that has over 1,000 yards in 2 games. We expected them to put up big numbers vs Duquesne which they did but they also were impressive vs LSU with nearly 400 yards on 5.5 YPP. We expect LSU to be one of the better defenses in the country this year. The Noles had 24 points in their game vs the Tigers but it could have been much more as they missed a FG, fumbled at the LSU 1 yard line, and were shut out on downs at the LSU 8 yard line. These 2 ACC teams have met 8 times since 2014 and 6 of those meetings have totaled at least 59 points and all 8 have totaled at least 52 points. The last 3 meetings have all had totals set above 60 points so we’re getting some value here at 57. Perfect weather in Louisville for this game and Over is the call.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 52.5 Penn State @ Purdue – Thursday Sept 1 8 PM ET - These two haven’t met since 2019 – Penn State has won 8 straight going back to 2006. 15-3-1 SU since 1951. FINISH TO LAST YEAR - Penn State finished last season with a Bowl loss to Arkansas (10-24). Purdue off a Bowl win over Tennessee 48-45. QUARTERBACK PLAY - Both teams have experience at the QB position with 6th year players. Aidan O’Connell for Purdue completed over 71% of his attempts last year (did throw 11 INT’s). He threw for over 370 yards 6 times last year including a pair of 500+ yard performances. Sean Clifford will be the Nittany Lions starter this season. Clifford has a chance to finish his PSU career as the #1 QB in passing yards, TD’, pass attempts and completions. Penn State also has RB Lee back and a talented WR corps but must replace the O-line. Penn State averaged 23.9PPG but should also score against the Boilermakers who also have misleading defensive numbers from a year ago. PURDUE DEFENSE MISLEADING STATS FROM LAST YEAR (Similar schedule to PSU) - Purdue allowed 29 or more points in the second half of the season to Michigan State, Ohio State and Tennessee. PURDUE OFFENSE IS GOING TO SCORE: Purdue was 22nd in total yards per game offensively (440.3YPG) and averaged 29.1PPG. PENN STATE DEFENSE OVER-RATED: The Lions must replace 7 of last year's top 11 tacklers from their defense that allowed just 17.3PPG (6th best) and their defensive coordinator. PSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading based on their schedule. The Lions faced 5 teams that ranked 107th or worse in total offense last season. KEY OFFENSIVE NUMBERS FOR BOTH: Both teams ranked top 31 in 3rd down conversions a year ago, so both have the ability to keep their offenses on the field. Purdue was 22nd in plays per game at 76.2, Penn State was 29th at 74.1. Purdue 21-14-2 OVER at home since 2016. Purdue 67% returning production – Penn State 65%

#299/300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska @ Dublin, Ireland, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - We expect the defenses to control this opener in Ireland. Nebraska made a change at offensive coordinator with Mark Whipple coming in from Pitt. They also have a new QB in Texas transfer Casey Thompson. While we expect the offense to look solid as the year progresses, early in the season will be an adjustment learning the new system. Whipple had 1st round pick Kenny Pickett as his QB at Pitt which helped open things up as he watched the offense improve by nearly 100 YPG last season compared to their 2020 numbers. Prior to Pickett taking off, the Pitt offense averaged just 331 YPG their previous 3 seasons combined. Our word is Whipple wants to run the ball quite a bit if possible and his mantra has been “don’t lose the game with mistakes” especially early in the season. That tells us he will be fairly conservative. We expect NW’s offense to struggle as they averaged just 16 PPG last year which ranked them 125th nationally. They were held to 14 points or less in 7 of their 9 Big 10 games. Their QB Hilinski started 5 games last year but wasn’t great completing just 54% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 4 interceptions on the season. Nebraska’s defense held NW to 7 points last year and was solid ranking 36th nationally holding their opponents to 5.2 YPP. We expect them to be better this year. The NW defense was bad last year. They allowed 6.3 YPP after giving up just 4.8 YPP the year prior. In fact, 3 of the 4 years prior to last season, the Wildcat defense ranked in the top 25 nationally in YPP allowed. Head coach Fitzgerald is a great defensive coach and we expect a big jump from that unit this year. NW will attempt to make this a slow paced, grind it out game. That’s what we anticipate with points hard to come by. Play the Under.

#285/286 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Kansas State vs LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this game. KSU’s defense ranks 64 spots higher than their offense (37th to 101st) and LSU’s defense ranks 34 spots higher than their offense (63rd to 87th). Both defenses were playing very well down the stretch with KSU holding each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less and LSU held their last 4 opponents to an average of 17 PPG – which included Bama, Arkansas, and A&M. The Tigers have had a number of opt outs and transfers on both sides of the ball. They are still very talented and fast on defense but the biggest impact will be at QB. They are left with 2 walk on QB’s who’ve never played in a game so their offense can be expected to struggle big time vs a solid KSU defense. They are also a poor running team ranking 117th nationally and lost their top RB after the season so these QB’s will have to play way above their head for LSU to put significant points on the board. While the Cats do have their full complement of offensive players for this one, they were far from explosive ranking outside the top 100 in total offense. They are also the 3rd slowest paced team in all of the bowl games so that should eat clock as well. We think the LSU defense will be fine here and will keep the Wildcat offense in check. The LSU offense with no scholarship QB will have problems. Under is the play.

#275/276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points - Penn State vs Arkansas, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Penn State had a solid defense this year (34th in total defense) but they won’t be even close to full strength here. That’s because they had 5 starters opt out on that side of the ball. Some of their top defensive players that combined to account for over 300 total tackles, 36.5 for loss and 12.5 sacks defensively. On top of that PSU lost their defensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Virginia Tech. We expect Arkansas to have very good success offensively here. The Razors averaged 31 PPG on the season and scored at least 30 in 4 of their last 5 including putting up 35 points on Alabama. Their PPG season number was skewed as well after putting up 0 points vs Georgia, the best defense in the country, take that game out and they averaged 35 PPG. Defensively the Razorbacks were shaky this year. They finished 69th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed and PSU finished 22nd in passing offense. Arkansas had some solid defensive performances in the non-conference slate but once they hit SEC play they allowed 30 PPG. Both teams like to play fairly fast with PSU 12th in pace of play for bowl teams and Arkansas is 25th. With Razors favored by 2 the projected score here is 25-23. Our projections have both teams topping those numbers. Take the OVER here.

#253/254 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Oregon vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9:15 PM ET - Both defenses are playing this game missing a number of key players. Oregon has over 30 guys out due to injuries, opt outs, etc… including 14 in the defensive 2 deep. That includes DE Thibodeaux who is one of the top pass rushers in the nation. The Ducks are actually moving OL to the DL so they have some depth for this game. Oklahoma will be without 3 starting defensive lineman and 4 of their front 7 are not playing in this game. Both offenses have a few guys out but nothing compared to the defenses. Both offense are capable of putting up big numbers as Oklahoma averaged 38 PPG and Oregon averaged 31 PPG this season. Since Williams took over at QB for the Sooners (final 7 games of the season), they have topped 50 points 3 times and been held below 28 just once. They closed out the season scoring 28 vs ISU and 33 vs Oklahoma State, two of the top 8 defenses in the nation. The only Pac 12 team that really slowed down the Ducks offense was Utah. Throw out those 2 games vs the Utes and Oregon put up at least 30 points in 8 of their other 11 games. Now with each offense close to full strength and facing depleted defenses, we anticipate both teams getting into the 30’s in this one.

#221/222 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59 Points – Kent State vs Wyoming, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Kent has one of the top offenses in the country (8th in total offense) and one of the worst defenses in the country (122nd in total defense). They also play at an extremely fast pace ranking behind only Western KY and Ole Miss when it comes to other bowl teams. Throw out their game vs FCS VMI and this defense has allowed at least 30 points in 9 of their 11 games while the offense has scored at least 30 in 7 of their last 8 games. The Wyoming offense struggled at times this year but that should all change today facing the worst defense they’ve seen this year. Mid season with Chambers at QB, the Cowboys went on a 3 game stretch scoring just 14, 0, and 3 points facing all defenses much better than Kent including 2 in the top 30. That stretch really affected their overall offensive numbers. Wyoming made the switch at QB to Williams and he averaged 25 PPG in his 5 starts. They had great offensive success in their 2 games in the non-conference vs MAC teams the Cowboys scored 50 vs Northern Illinois and 45 vs Ball State. Both teams run the ball very well (Kent 4th nationally / Wyoming 27th) and that is a weakness of both defenses (Kent 106th nationally / Wyoming 95th). Both teams will run at will here opening up the passing game for big plays. This game is in Boise and the weather looks great with temps in the mid 30’s and little wind. Both are cold weather teams so temps in the mid 30’s won’t affect either side. Our projections have both teams topping 30 points which puts this one OVER the total.

#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52.5 Points – Appalachian State vs UL Lafayette, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In this match up we have the 2 best defenses in the Sun Belt (#1 & #2 in total defense and scoring defense) squaring off. These two met earlier this year and ULL won the game 41-13 which was by far the worst performance by the App State defense this year. They will be motivated for this one. In that game the teams combined for only 665 total yards and ULL had 4 explosive plays that totaled 139 of those yards. ULL also scored 4 TD’s on drives of 39 yards or less after Mountaineer turnovers. There were 73 rushing attempts and just 51 pass attempts in that game. Rushing the ball eats clock as we know and we expect much more of the same in this game. ASU averages 41 carries per game and ULL averages 40 per game. Since that loss App St has played 6 games and allowed just 14 PPG and 242 YPG. If you subtract their season opener vs Texas in which the ULL defense allowed 38 points, the Cajun defense has allowed an average of just 16.7 PPG and nobody has topped 27 points on this team. Both teams are slower paced ranking 70th or lower nationally so we don’t foresee a lot of offensive possessions. With ASU favored by 3 the projected final here is around 28-25. We don’t project either team getting to those numbers and we like the UNDER.

#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 72.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met already once this season and it was an absolute shootout. UTSA came out on top 52-46 so almost 100 points scored in that one. It wasn’t a fluke as there wasn’t a single non-offensive TD in that game. All points were earned by the offenses. The 2 teams combined for more than 1,200 yards in the game! As crazy as it sounds, it could have been higher scoring that it was. Believe it or not there were FIVE punts in the game, a missed FG, one shut out on downs in opposing territory and 2 interceptions thrown inside the opponents 25 yards line which would most likely have led to scores. There were 166 offensive snaps in the game (a lot!) and we expect nothing different as these are 2 of the faster paced teams in college FB (WKU in top 10 and UTSA in top 30). The Hilltoppers have scored 40+ points in 7 of their last 8 games including rolling up 52 last Saturday on a Marshall defense that came into the game ranked 23rd nationally allowing just 21 PPG. UTSA’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season and they are averaging 37 PPG on the year. This game is being played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio so the playing conditions will be perfect for both offenses. With WKU favored by 3 the projected final score is 38-35. Our numbers have both teams eclipsing those numbers as this one goes OVER the total.

#147/148 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 53.5 Points – Army vs Liberty, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We won’t see many offensive opportunities in this game as Army is slowest paced team in the nation and Liberty ranks 92nd in pace. On top of that we’ll see A LOT of running the ball which eats clock and shortens the game. Army is 2nd nationally averaging 60 rushing attempts per game and Liberty is averaging 41 per game (30th). We have 2 very good defenses in this game as well with both ranking in the top 15 in total defense. Liberty entered last week’s game vs UL Lafayette allowing just 18 PPG and it looks like they had a total meltdown on that side of the ball with the Cajuns scoring 42 points. That wasn’t the case as ULL had only 296 total yards and Liberty gave them a number of short fields with a -6 turnover margin in that game. Even though they played decent on defense, giving up their highest point total of the season will motivate this Liberty defense heading into this week. Let’s remember the week prior to their ULL game this Liberty defense allowed just 27 points to a potent Ole Miss offense. Army has had 4 games that have scored more than this total (53) vs WKY (7th in pace, 9th in offense, 110th defense), UConn (14th pace, 111th defense), WF (4th pace, 9th offense, 110th defense) and Bucknell (63-10 final). So all of Army’s higher scoring games were vs fast paced teams with poor defenses. That won’t be the case this week. For comparison, Army’s total vs WF was set at 54. Their total vs Western KY was set at 52. As we stated above those are fast paced teams with very good offense and defenses ranked below 100. Based on that, this total should be set in the 40’s. Our number has it at 47 so we think there is definite value in the Under.

#391/392 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 65 Points – Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - The Rebels have really upped their defensive performance as of late holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 19 points or less. Those 3 opponents were Texas A&M, Liberty, and LSU whose offenses are all far superior to Vandy. The Commodores rank 123rd in total offense and 128th in scoring offense averaging only 15 PPG. Take out their games vs the 2 defenses they’ve faced ranked lower than 100th (Mizzou & UConn) and Vanderbilt is averaging only 11.5 PPG. They will struggle offensively vs this Ole Miss defense that is playing much better than their season long stats indicate. Offensively the Rebels have slowed WAY down compared to early in the season. They have not topped 31 points since October 9th which has resulted in 5 straight Unders. Mississippi has a huge game on deck Thursday (Thanksgiving) with rival Mississippi State so they don’t want to do anything to jeopardize their performance in that game. Nothing special on offense from them here and if they get a comfortable lead as the point spread suggests they will we expect them to sit key players, including banged up QB Corral, in the 2nd half at some point. Of Vandy’s last 36 road games, 26 have gone Under the total and we expect another one here.

#353/354 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 53.5 Points - UL Lafayette @ Liberty, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The defenses for both teams are stingy and tough to score on. Liberty is 13th in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 18.7PPG. UL Lafayette is right behind them allowing 19.2PPG which ranks 17th. On average it takes teams 18.3 yards to score a point on ULL which is 13th best in the nation. Liberty is 28th in Yards Per Point defense at 16.1. The Flames defense is allowing 4.6-Yards Per Play on the season which ranks them 13th, Lafayette allows 5.0YPPL which is 32nd. You get the picture, this game is all about the defenses. Liberty is 101st in the country in pace of play, Lafayette is 66th. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 6-1 Under run, Liberty has stayed Under 6-3-1 on the season.

#325/326 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 66 Points - Virginia @ Pittsburgh, Saturday at 3:30PM ET - The first aspect that stands out here is how fast both these teams play. Virginia ranks 36th in pace of play and has ranked as high as 28th. Pittsburgh is 17th in POP averaging 2.52 plays per minute. We also have two of the best offenses in college football squaring off as UVA ranks 5th in total yards per game (518YPG), while Pitt is 2nd at 533YPG. They are also both top 5 in passing yards per game and have big play capability with their passing attacks averaging 8.1-Yards Per Pass Attempt (Virginia 37th) and 8.8YPPA (Pittsburgh 19th). Last week the Cavs produced just 3-points against Notre Dame, but they were missing one of the best QB’s in college as Brennan Armstrong was out. Anderson is expected back for this game. Pittsburgh may have the best QB in the country with Kenny Pickett who is completing 67% of his passes for over 3,500 yards and 32 TD’s to 4 INT’s. Pitt just faced North Carolina and Vegas set a Total of 72 points. UNC and Virginia are very comparable offensively, but the Tar Heels are much better defensively. The Cavaliers at 98th in scoring defense, giving up 31PPG on the season and rank 120th in yards allowed. Pittsburgh has a weakness on defense and it’s against the pass as they allow 242PYPG which ranks 87th. If Armstrong is under center for Virginia, this sets up as a QB shootout. Bet Over.

#339/340 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 68 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for MSU’s defense. Sparty ranks DEAD LAST in the country in pass defense allowing 351 yards per game through the air and 111th in total defense. They are facing an OSU offense that is rolling right now and ranks #1 nationally in total offense and #6 in pass offense. This Buckeye offense just put up 59 points and 624 yards last week vs Purdue who came into the game as the 20th ranked defense in the nation. It could have been much worse as Ohio State had 52 points with 11 minutes still remaining in the 3rd quarter in that game. And that was vs a top 20 defense and now they face a bottom 20 defense on Saturday. While MSU’s defense stinks, they can score points. They are averaging 31 PPG in Big 10 play which is 2nd in the conference behind OSU who is averaging 48 PPG. Even vs the 2 top defenses they’ve faced this year (Michigan & Purdue) the Spartans scored 37 and 29 points respectively. This total seems high at 68 but let’s compare it to OSU’s total last week when the faced Purdue. That number was 65 and the Boiler defense is FAR superior to and MSU’s offense is ranked 40 spots higher than Purdue’s, yet this total is only 3 points higher. Weather looks great in Columbus with high temps in the upper 40’s with very little wind. Shootout here and we like the Over.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 66 Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 8:30PM ET - If you enjoy MACaction and a lot of scoring you will love this contest tonight. Both teams have plenty to play for with identical 6-4 SU records so energy will be high for this “Michigan” rivalry. Let’s start with the Eastern defense which has been atrocious in the past few weeks. Last week, EMU allowed 8.1-yards per play to Ohio U who averages 6.1YPPL on the season and gave up 34-points to a Bobcats averaging 24PPG on the year. The Eagles allowed 8.6YPPL, 672 total yards to Toledo the week before and 49 points. While we are talking about defenses, Western Michigan has given up 31 or more points in 5 straight games, in 3 of those they allowed 40 plus. WMU has racked up some gaudy offensive numbers in recent weeks with 533, 445, 398 and 648 total yards of offense in their last four games. The Broncos will have success on the ground against an EMU defense that gives up 195-rushing yards per game and ranks 107th in that department. Overall the Eagles give up over 430YPG which is 103rd in the nation. WMU is 29th in yards per game at 443.8 with 195 of those yards coming via the 34th ranked rushing attack. Ohio is the highest scoring team in the MAC and 22nd highest scoring team in the nation at 33.9PPG. Last season when these two teams met they combined for over 1,000 total yards of offense and 95-total points. The bet here is OVER.

#187/188 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – South Carolina vs Missouri, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Mizzou has a very good offense and terrible defense. They have allowed at least 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that did not reach 35 was Vanderbilt and Mizzou allowed a bad Commodore offense to 28 in that game. FCS team Southeast Missouri State put up 28 points on this defense which ranks 122nd and total defense and 116th in YPP allowed. Offensively, this team can score points. Their only 2 poor offensive performances this year were vs Georgia & Texas A&M who rank 2nd and 7th nationally in YPP allowed. If we subtract those 2 games, Mizzou is averaging 38 PPG on the season. Starting QB Bazelak missed last weekend’s game @ UGA but has been practicing this week so we expect him to go. The South Carolina offensive numbers for the season aren’t great. However, the Gamecocks seem to be peaking late in the year on that side of the ball right now putting up 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games including last Saturday beating Florida 40-17. On top of that, Missouri will be the worst defense they’ve faced this season. South Carolina has a middle of the pack type defense this year ranking 53rd nationally. However, in SEC play they have allowed 30 PPG with 3 teams getting to at least 40 points. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Columbia, MO on Saturday with light winds and no precipitation in the forecast. We like the OVER in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Toledo vs Bowling Green, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - Last week both of these teams went WAY over the total in their games which sets this week up nicely for the Under. Bowling Green beat Buffalo 56-44 going over the posted total by 48.5 points! Toledo came up short vs Eastern Michigan losing 52-49 which went over the posted total by 46.5 points! Both games were way outside the norm for these teams and they oddsmakers are simply very rarely that far off. Even with those results, this week’s total opened at 51.5 points and was immediately hammered by pro money pushing it down to 50. The Rockets last 4 totals were set at 54, 54, 53.5, and 51.5 so very similar to tonight’s number vs BG. However, those 4 games were vs offenses that rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th in the MAC. Bowling Green’s offense ranks dead last in the conference. Throw out their worst game of the season last year vs EMU, and this Toledo defense allowed 15 points vs WMU who averages 29 PPG, 23 points vs CMU who averages 30 PPG, and 20 points vs NIU who averages 32 PPG. Even after their terrible effort last week, the Rockets still rank 1st in the MAC in points allowed and 2nd in yardage allowed. BG will struggle on offense. The Falcons defense is the strength of their team as well. They rank 4th in the MAC in total defense and they are #1 in the league in pass defense. Toledo’s huge scoring effort last week was an outlier as they averaged just 24.7 PPG in MAC play leading into last week. Prior to last week Toledo had played in 6 straight games that went Under the total. BG is 5-4 to the Under this year. Both are slow paced teams (82nd and 88th nationally) so possessions might be limited. Take the UNDER in this one.

#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 68 Points - App State vs Arkansas State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We will start with pace of play, or the number of plays run per minute in our analysis here. Arkansas State is the 11th fastest paced team in college football at 2.63 plays per minute. Appalachian State is 58th at 2.32PPM. App State plays slightly slower, but they make up for it with the 46th best Yards Per Point average at 13.6 while ranking 29th in Yards Per Play at 6.3. The Mountaineers are top 20 in total yards per game, top 38 in both passing and rushing YPG and average 34.8PPG which is 27th in the nation. Appalachian State has put up over 500YPG in 5 of their last six games. Last weekend, App State put up 521 total yards and 59 points against a UL Monroe team that is better than this Arkansas State defense. The Wolves stop unit (we use that term loosely) is 130th in total yards allowed per game, 122nd in passing yards allowed, 129th in rushing D and 128th in points allowed at 42.4PPG. Arky State has given up more than 50 points 4 times this season. The Red Wolves can play offense though averaging over 408YPG, rank 10th in passing yards per game and score 27.5PPG on the season. App State is down defensively compared to past editions and rank slightly above average in most key categories.

#345/346 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 44 Points – Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - Minnesota loves to play slow and eat clock. They are the 2nd slowest paced team in the nation only ahead of Army. They average just 1.86 plays per minute. The Gophs also run the ball nearly as much as any team in the country. They average 47 carries per game which is the 5th most nationally. Running the ball keeps the clock moving which favors the Under. They are facing an Illini defense that has been solid. They have not allowed more than 24 points in any of their last 6 games and they’ve allowed an average of 16.8 PPG (in regulation) over those 6 contests. The problem for Illinois is on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored a grand total of 8 offensive TD’s in their 6 conference games and if we remove defensive scores and OT game, Illinois is averaging 12 PPG in Big 10 play. It won’t get any better here as Minnesota’s defense is VASTLY improved over last season. They are allowing just 5.0 YPP (30th nationally) and if you take out their season opener vs Ohio State, the Gopher defense is giving up just 15 PPG on the year. This one should be a good old Big 10 grinder and we like the Under.

#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points - Georgia vs Florida, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The World’s largest Cocktail party takes place this weekend when Georgia and Florida meet for their annual showdown. According to our computer analytics you can bet and expect a lower scoring affair. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses we’ve seen in quite a few years and put up some eye-popping statistics thus far. The Dawgs are allowing just 1-point scored for every 31.8 yards gained. To put that into perspective, in the last ten years no team has finished the season at 24.5YPPT or better. Georgia just faced three SEC teams that were top 50 in scoring per game, and they gave up a total of just 23 combined points in all three. Florida has solid overall offensive numbers, but they haven’t faced a defense like Georgia’s. In fact, the two closest defenses the Gators have faced this season are Alabama’s and Kentucky’s who allow a full 100-more yards more per game than Georgia does. Florida scored 29-points on Bama (who is down defensively by their standards) and put up 440 total yards. That equates to 1-point for every 15-yards gained which is roughly the national average. Against Kentucky, the Gators managed 382 yards and 13 points. Georgia allows just 209YPG on the season and holds opponents to just 3.4 Yards per Play (1st) so don’t expect Florida to move the ball successfully against this stop-unit. The Bulldogs are very pedestrian offensively and prefer to wear their opponents out with a power rushing attack that averages 193 yards per game. Florida has some solid defensive numbers overall (give up just 21.1PPG, and 16YPPT) and are especially good against the pass. Georgia plays at one of slowest paces in the country ranking 117th in pace of play. Florida isn’t much faster, ranking 73rd. These two teams played in a higher scoring game a year ago with Florida putting up 44 points and 571 total yards. That’s not happening this year and expect this game to revert to the low scoring contests like 2015-2019 which finished with 30, 34, 49, 53 and 41-points. The Under is now 7-3 the last ten meetings.