#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64.5 Points – NC State vs Liberty, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - NC State is known to put up big points but they can't stop teams. That latter point is bad news for the Wolfpack as they now take on a red hot Liberty team that is 7-0 this season! The Flames are scoring 42.3 points per game on an average of 510 yards per contest! Liberty's offense is averaging 6.83 yards per play which ranks them in the top 20 teams in the nation this season for offensive efficiency out of more than 125 teams! NC State is allowing 456.5 yards per game and will struggle to stop an incredibly balanced Flames attack! Liberty is averaging 255 yards per game both rushing and passing! As for the Wolfback offense, they are averaging 38.8 points per game at home this season. Those 4 home games included facing two teams with winning records including a recent match-up with Miami (7-1 on the season). NC State scored 41 points against the Hurricanes! The Wolfpack are off an under (barely!) in their most recent game but that under was just their 2nd in 8 games this season! Additionally, the over is 6-1 in Liberty's 7 games this season! NC State is off of a game in which they surrendered only 22 points but that was against a Florida State team that has had major QB issues and is having a miserable season. Now the Wolfpack face Liberty QB Willis who has a TD-INT ratio of 15-1 plus has rushed for 700 yards this season too! That type of dual threat QB is going to give a bad defense like NC State's a lot of trouble. Taking a look at the Wolfpack offense again, they even slowed down last week because they had the game in hand (it was 28-3 in the 2nd quarter) but in this one a talented and confident Liberty team isn't going to wither away like the Seminoles did. That is why this one has the makings of a back and forth shootout as the Flames offense has helped lead the way to them becoming a ranked team this season! A lot of talent on that side of the ball for Liberty but now their defense will have its hands full with an equally talented NC State offense as both teams take advantage of beautiful weather conditions in this one too. The early forecast for Saturday night in Raleigh, NC is temperatures in the 50s with no precipitation and no wind either! Shootout in Raleigh! Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into upper-30's in this one and that means an easy OVER expected here!

#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 47.5 Points – San Jose State @ San Diego State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Nick Starkel is the quarterback at San Jose State.  Before "arriving" (literally!) with the Spartans, he started his career in the SEC - first with Texas A & M and then with Arkansas.  Starkel has the background to play very well in the Mountain West and he is already doing it.  Of course he goes from facing some easier competition in the first two games this season to facing a tough San Diego State defense but, the fact is, this is a solid Spartans offense that can put up plenty of points.  Last season they had one of the top passing attacks in football with 338 yards per game and this is a team that averaged 30 points per game!  The problem for San Jose State is they generally can't stop anyone.  Don't be fooled by their first two games this season as they faced struggling offenses.  San Diego State is averaging 347 rushing yards per game this season and has put up at least 34 points in each of their first two games.  The Aztecs will run all over a Spartands rush defense that was one of the worst in the nation against the run last season as they allowed 232.1 yards per game on the ground.  San Diego State has looked very strong on offense and has already scored more points in each of their first two games this season than they did in any of their regular season games last season!  That helps key this over as does the fact that San Jose State looks even better than last year's offense.  That being said, this match-up will see more points than last year's which ended up a 27-17 final.  Per our computer math modeling, more scoring occurs compared to what many are expecting in this one and that means an OVER here!

#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 64.5 Points – Ohio State @ Penn State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - PSU gave up 36 points to Indiana last week in a 1-point OT loss. It may look like the defense struggled simply looking at the score but that was not the case. In fact, the Nittany Lions limited Indiana to just 211 total yards on 3.4 YPP. On the ground the Hoosiers only averaged 1.6 YPC. Prior to IU’s final 75 yard TD drive in the final minute which tied the game, the Hoosiers had a total of 136 yards of offense. Turnovers killed Penn State in that loss leading to short fields and points for Indiana. OSU’s defense looked very solid in game 1 limiting a Nebraska offense that returned 10 starters to just 17 points. Much of the Huskers offense came from their QB’s running the ball. If you subtract the rush yards from Martinez and McCaffrey the two NU QB’s, the offense barely had 200 yards. Buckeye QB Fields played a great game but other than that, the offense wasn’t super. While Fields was their leading rusher, the OSU RB’s only rushed for 89 yards on 23 carries (3.8 YPC). That could be a problem facing a PSU rush defense that led the Big 10 last year allowing just 95 YPG and looks very good again this year. Last year these two played to 28-17 OSU win totaling just 45 points. The 2 defenses combined to hold the offenses to just 4.3 YPP in that game. Going back further, 4 of the last 5 in this series have stayed UNDER the total and this is just the 2nd time in the last 10 meetings the total has been set in the 60’s. Last year’s total was 58 which is more on par with where this one should be in our opinion. There have been 28 games played in this Big 10 series and only THREE have reached 60 or more points. With this total set at 64 at least one or possibly both teams need to get into the 30’s. PSU has allowed 30 or more in just 3 of their last 26 games. OSU hasn’t allowed 30 in 16 straight games. UNDER in the play here.

#131/132 ASA PLAY 8* ON Over 61 Points – Minnesota @ Maryland, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The Maryland defense was one of the worst in the nation last year finishing dead last in the Big Ten in total defense. After one game, it looks like they might be worse this season. They allowed a Northwestern team that finished 13th in the conference last year at 16.3 PPG to put up 43 last Saturday. The Cats rolled up well over 500 yards including 325 on the ground. Minnesota put up 24 points vs a Michigan defense that is light years better than this Maryland stop unit. The Gophs scored 52 last year on the Terps and bring back essentially the same offense. We anticipate Minnesota topping 40 here and wouldn’t be surprised if they push 50 again. Can Maryland get their offense going after scoring only 3 points last week vs Northwestern? We think so. First of all they’ll be facing a Minnesota defense that lost most of their production from last year and allowed 49 points to a Michigan offense that was replacing nearly everyone from a year ago. They also have up a ridiculous 9.0 YPP and over 8.0 YPC on the ground. We liked Minnesota last week due to their experienced, potent offense and hoped their newcomers on defense would hold up. They are much worse than we anticipated on that side the ball. Maryland QB Tagovailoa (yes Tua’s brother) is talented and got his feet wet last week. He threw 3 interceptions and we expect a much better game from him as he faces a defense that is a big step down from Northwestern’s. The Terp defense has allowed at least 40 points in 6 of their last 10 games and we don’t anticipate them slowing Minnesota down here. While we expect Minnesota’s offense to thrive, we could never lay 20 points with the Gophs with a terrible defense. Maryland will look much better this week on offense and the weather looks perfect for this game with light winds and no precip. We like the OVER here.

#321/322 ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER 60 Points – North Carolina State @ North Carolina, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - First off we are well aware of the injury situation for North Carolina State here. QB Devin Leary is out. However, Bailey Hockman will be in at QB and he led the Wolfpack to their win versus Wake Forest earlier this season and then came in last week against Duke and led them on a scoring drive culminated by his TD pass. Hockman can't wait for this opportunity against NC State's fiercest rival as this is a chance to redeem himself from a rough game in his other road appearance this season (at Virginia Tech). Hockman will be testing out a North Carolina defense that recently got scorched for 495 yards by Virginia Tech two weeks ago! The Tar Heels first two games this season were against Syracuse and Boston College and that helped mask some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels defense absolutely has issues and that is what the Hokies exposed two weeks ago. UNC followed up that effort by allowing 31 points to Florida State in the first half last week. Yes, the Tar Heels shut down FSU in the 2nd half but the Seminoles also seemed to try and go into protect lead mode and very nearly paid for that decision. The Seminoles still finished with 432 yards of offense and this Heels defense still can't be trusted in our opinion. However, the other side of the ball is where UNC really has no issues. The Tar Heels had 558 yards of offense against the Seminoles last week and should have scored much more than 28 points! Also, two weeks ago against the Hokies, North Carolina won the game despite allowing 45 points as they exploded for 56 points on 656 yards of offense. The Heels have a fantastic backfield as Carter and Williams ran for 214 and 169 yards, respectively, plus each had a pair of rushing TDs in that win over Virginia Tech. Also, QB Howell was 18 of 23 for 257 yards and 3 TDs in that game and then threw for 374 yards and 3 more TDs against the Noles last week. The Wolfpack defense is allowing 421.4 yards per game and was only saved last week by the fact they were facing a turnover-prone Blue Devils team. Otherwise Duke would have scored a lot more against NC State and certainly UNC won't be mistake-prone here like the Blue Devils were. The Tar Heels are averaging 7.37 yards per play on offense to rank among the most efficient offenses in the nation. After facing weaker offenses of Duke, Virginia, and Pittsburgh in their last 3 games, NC State now faces a team that is a powerhouse on offense. Keep in mind, the Wolfpack allowed 43.5 points per game their first two games this season. You can see exactly why we're expecting both teams to enjoy plenty of success lighting up the scoreboard in this one as our computer math model is forecasting a shootout. Ideal weather conditions expected for this one as well. Both teams getting well into the 30’s mean an OVER here and Tar Heels (double digit favorite here) have a good shot to get into the 40's!

#125/126 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64 Points – North Carolina @ Florida State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - First off we are well aware of the injury situation for Florida State here. QB Jordan Travis is dealing with a hand injury. He has participated in practice this week and was listed as the starter on the depth chart and we do expect him to play here. However, even if he does not start then it will be former starter James Blackman back in the starting role. At home and with a chance to redeem himself from a rough beginning to the season (which cost him his starting job), Blackman would be likely to respond big here given the opportunity. The Seminoles also lost WR Tamorrion Terry to a season-ending injury in the Notre Dame game. Though he was off to a great start for the Noles this season, Terry wasn't even listed as a starter early this season and had worked his way into that role. Would FSU love to have Terry? Of course! But even without him there is plenty of WR talent on this Florida State team and they will be testing out a North Carolina defense that just got scorched for 495 yards by Virginia Tech last week! The Tar Heels first two games this season were against Syracuse and Boston College and that helped mask some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels defense absolutely has issues and that is what the Hokies exposed last week. However, the other side of the ball is where UNC really has no issues. That is why they won last week's game despite allowing 45 points as North Carolina exploded for 56 points on 656 yards of offense. The Heels have a fantastic backfield as Carter and Williams ran for 214 and 169 yards, respectively, plus each had a pair of rushing TDs in the win over Virginia Tech. Also, QB Howell was 18 of 23 for 257 yards and 3 TDs and now takes on a Noles defense that is allowing nearly 70% completion percentage on the season. The Seminoles defense having major issues with 39.3 points per game allowed the last 3 games and the Tar Heels are averaging 7.56 yards per play on offense to rank among the most efficient offenses in the nation. The Noles, on the other hand, allowing 6.49 yards per play on defense to rank among the least efficient defenses in the nation. On offense however Florida State plays at a fast pace (76.5 offensive plays per game) and did put up 26 points on a Fighting Irish defense that had allowed a total of only 13 points in its first two games combined! You can see exactly why we're expecting both teams to enjoy plenty of success lighting up the scoreboard in this one as our computer math model is forecasting a shootout. Ideal weather conditions expected for this one as well. Both teams getting well into the 30’s mean an OVER here and Tar Heels (double digit favorite here) have a good shot to get into the 40's or 50's!

#313/314 ASA 8* PLAY ON OVER 58 Points – NC State @ Virginia, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET

Virginia only scored 23 points last week but that was against Clemson!  In fact, the Cavaliers moved the ball very well in that game and had 25 first downs and over 400 yards of offense.  The Cavs were done in by two interceptions but that was an impressive effort against one of the best teams/defenses in the nation.  Virginia entered that game off a 38-point outburst in a win over Duke.  We like what we have seen from the Cavaliers offense early this season.  The issue for the Cavs here will not be on offense however.  It will be on defense where Virginia has concerns as they try to stop NC State.  The Wolfpack are off an upset win at Pittsburgh last week.  The Panthers have a very strong defense and their defensive line causes a lot of disruption and yet NC State managed to put up 30 points in their outright win as a two touchdown underdog.  The Wolfpack have averaged 33 points per game in their first 3 games this season.  However, the NC State defense has issues as they have allowed an average of 39 points per game this season.  The key for the Wolfpack is an explosive offense and they got Leary back last week after he missed the first game and only played part of the second game of the season.  Leary had over 300 yards passing versus a tough Panthers defense plus threw for the game winning TD (his 4th of the game!) with under a minute to go in the contest.  This Wolfpack offense, especially with Leary back under center, is loaded with confidence right now.  Even without him they scored plenty in their first two games this season.  The issue for NC State here is they have injury issues on defense (a number of them) and are on the road for this one and we just don't see Virginia having any problems scoring in this game.  Leary stays hot for the NC State offense but the Cavaliers have been balanced on offense and will keep an injury-depleted Wolfpack defense on its heels.  Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into the 30’s in this one and that means an OVER here!

ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER: Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #303

There is a tropical system off the gulf coast of Texas but the rain and significant winds from that system are not expected to move into the Houston area until the morning hours of Friday. In other words, the conditions for this game should be just fine and allow both offenses to function fully. Though it is the first game of the season for the Cougars, they have a dangerous offensive attack that returns nearly everyone from last season's team. The issue for Houston tonight will be trying to stop a Green Wave team that put up 38 points on them in last year's match-up and that comes into this one rested off a bye week that was preceded by a 66 point outburst in their prior game. Indeed, Tulane can put up plenty of points here (averaging 39 ppg on the season) but will struggle to stop the Cougars potent attack. Houston averaged 31 points per game last season but allowed 34 points per game. Per our computer math modeling this game will get well into the 60s and there is a solid probability for 70+ points in this one. Tulane has shown the ability both to come back this season (Southern Miss game saw them down 14-0 early) but also blow huge leads (Navy game saw them waste 24-0 lead). In other words, no lead safe either way in this game and plenty of scoring expected. Bet the over in this Thursday evening match-up.

#145/146 ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER 62 Points – Ole Miss @ Kentucky, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We were on the Ole Miss OVER last week when they played host to Florida and we’re right back on it again this week.  Lane Kiffin is the new head coach for the Rebels and he knows offense and loves to play fast.  They put up over 600 yards (7 YPP) on what was supposed to be a solid Florida defense coming into the season and ran nearly 80 offensive plays.  The two teams last week combined for almost 1300 yards and 86 points.  Not only that, the teams took some time to get moving offensively as the score was just 7-0 with under 4:00 minutes to go in the first quarter and they STILL almost reached 90 points.  While the Ole Miss offense looks very good, the defense obviously did not allowing 51 points with Florida scoring points on all 5 of their 2nd half possessions.  For the game, the Gators scored points on 9 of their 11 possessions and had to punt the ball just once the entire game.  For the game Florida averaged nearly 9.0 YPP!  We look for Kentucky’s offense to be very good this season.  Last year the Wildcats offense was run based as they had to move a WR (Bowden) to QB after starter Terry Wilson was injured early in the season.  Wilson is back at QB and we expect Kentucky’s offense to be much more balanced this season.  Last week they ran the ball 40 times and passed 38 times which is the balance we expected.  Last Saturday they only scored 13 points @ Auburn, however they put up nearly 400 yards and they had PLENTY of chances to put points on the board vs a very solid Auburn defense.  In fact, the Wildcats threw an interception in the endzone going into score, fumbled at the Auburn 15 yard line, fumbled at the Auburn 30 yard line and turned the ball over twice on downs.  So as you can see, they left some serious points off the board last week.  Their defense, on the other hand, allowed 29 points and the Tigers pushed into Kentucky territory on 7 of their 10 possessions.  Both of these teams are in the top 20 in offensive snaps per game after one week so as we mentioned we expect a fast paced game.  Both teams will be facing defenses that are inferior to the opponents they faced last week so offense should be the name of the game here.  These 2 SEC opponents have met just once since the 2011 season and that was a 37-34 final (71 total points) in 2017.  With Kentucky favored by 6 and the total set at 61.5, the oddsmakers expect a 34-28 type final here.  We agree the Cats will get into the 30’s however we do not see Kentucky holding Ole Miss below 30.  Both teams in the 30’s mean an OVER here!

ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER: Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #419

Very nice weather (light winds, mild temperatures, partly cloudy skies) expected in this one early Saturday afternoon in Oxford, MS and the offenses should flourish at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Florida averaged 33.2 points per game last season and their passing attack (300.8 yards per game) ranked 16th in the nation. Senior QB Kyle Trask is back for the Gators and his passing yardage last season (despite starting only 10 games) was the most for a Florida QB since Tim Tebow in 2007 when he won the Heisman. The Gators head coach, Dan Mullen, previously coached at Mississippi State so he is familiar with attacking the Rebels defense as that is a big rivalry. Ole Miss returns only 4 starters on defense and the Rebels struggled against the pass last season allowing 278.3 passing yards per game to rank 120th in the nation! That spells trouble in this match-up for Ole Miss but their offense just might bail them out! The Rebels do return 8 starters on that side of the ball and made a change at offensive coordinator. Last year they were a run-heavy team but will employ more of the passing game this season under new OC Jeff Lebby. He was the offensive coordinator at UCF last season. UCF's offense ranked 5th in total yardage and true freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel accumulated 3,653 passing yards plus 29 touchdowns. Lebby will have the Rebels attack looking much different than it did under Rich Rodriguez. Lebby is the OC under new Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin as he returns to the SEC. He had been a head coach at Tennessee and an offensive coordinator at Alabama. Kiffin has two solid QBs - Corral and Plumlee - to choose from and you're going to see a lot more passing with the Ole Miss attack this season. Look for a fast-paced high-scoring SEC shootout in this one. Bet the over in this early Saturday afternoon match-up.