#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win.  We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair.  We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral.  Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play.  They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency.  All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric.  The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st.  They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both.  Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season.  In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed.  We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense.  UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game).  On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe.  Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati -5.5 over UCF, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 Big 12 foes met once this season and Cincy won by 10 at UCF. A few things that stood out in that game was the fact the Bearcats dominated inside making 33 of their 49 two point attempts (67%) which should take place again here as the Golden Knights are 243rd defending inside the arc. Secondly, UCF turned the ball over at a 21% rate in that home loss and we expect a solid advantage for Cincy in the turnover department again as they rank much higher offensive (lower turnover rate) and defensively (higher turnover rate). Lastly, UCF’s leading scorer in that game (and on the season) was Hall with 23 points and he has opted out of this tournament. The Knights beat Oregon State 76-75 yesterday which wasn’t overly impressive as OSU played that game without their 3 top scorers who combine to average 41 PPG on the season. The Beavers put up 75 points on 47% shooting despite missing their 3 best offensive players which is a huge concern. UCF’s defense has been poor all season (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency) and allowed Cincinnati to put up 93 points (their 2nd highest point total of the season) on 1.22 PPP in their lone meeting. The Bearcats defense is far superior (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on offense they are the better shooting team at 45% (173rd in the country) compared to UCF’s 42% (323rd). Central Florida has a negative FG% differential, 3 point FG% differential and PPG differential while the Bearcats are positive in all of those stats. We like Cincinnati here.

#650 ASA PLAY ON Butler Pick'em over Utah, Monday at 3 PM ET - Our power ratings have Butler a few spots ahead of Utah and a 1 point favorite which is dead on with what the oddsmakers believe as well.  However, we think the Bulldogs hold some key advantages which will be the difference in this game.  First of all, Utah bad FT shooting team and in what is expected to be a tight game, that can play a huge factor.  The Utes make less than 64% of their FT’s on the season (357th out of 364 teams) and on top of that they won’t get their very often as Butler fouls very little.  Bulldog opponents have scored only 13.5% of their points from the FT line this season which is the 6th lowest mark in college basketball.  So when Utah gets there, they better take advantage and they’ve proven throughout the season they struggle at doing that.  Butler, on the other hand, hits just over 74% of their FT’s and they get there a decent amount with almost 21% of their points come from the charity stripe.  They should have a solid advantage from the FT line as well as from beyond the arc.  Both teams rely fairly heavily on making 3’s (114th and 115th in percentage of points from 3) but the Bulldogs are simply better at shooting it and defending it.  They rank 43rd in the country in 3 point FG% and 49th in the country in opponents 3 point FG%.  Utah ranks 234th and 174th respectively in those 2 key stats.  Neither team has been great when away from home but the Utes have been worse with only 1 road win (road or neutral) the entire season.  They shoot less than 40% overall away from home, less than 30% from 3 and average only 64 PPG while allowed 78 PPG.  Butler has 4 road/neutral site wins on the year and much more stable right now with long time solid head coach Thad Matta at the helm.  Utah, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Alex Jensen, but he is on the Dallas Mavs coach staff until the end of the season while this year’s interim and now soon to be leaving, head coach Josh Eilert will be coaching in this tourney.  We like Butler to win this one on Monday afternoon.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Duke -6.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday and they went crazy.  They took 66 total shots from the field and a ridiculous 51 of those were from 3.  They made 25 triples (49%) which set the NCAA tourney record.  While the Crimson Tide are a solid 3 point shooting team, they aren’t great ranking 75th nationally.  We just don’t see that as a sustainable situation here vs a Duke defense that 5th nationally in efficiency (BYU was 82nd defensively).  If the Tide need to rely a huge number of 3’s again, they’re probably in trouble.  Duke dominated Arizona more than the 100-93 final score.  They led by 19 in the 2nd half before the Cats made a final push.  The Devils shot the 3 well (made 11 triples) but dominated at the rim hitting 61% of their shots inside the arc and now facing Bama defense that isn’t great defensively inside.  Duke was extremely efficient (1.41 PPP) vs a Arizona defense that compares favorably to this Alabama defense (35th and 27th respectively in defensive efficiency).  The Blue Devils were much more well rounded on offense Thursday taking 66 shots but only 19 from deep so they aren’t completely reliant on making 3’s compared to the Tide.  Duke has been the better team all season long and is the only team in the country in the top 5 both offense and defense efficiency wise.  They are in the top 10 in the country in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, shoot FT’s better (79% to 72%), turn the ball over less (16th to 143rd for Bama), and they are the much better defensive rebounding team limiting 2nd chance points.  They had a huge lead vs a very good Arizona team and almost blew it.  We don’t think that happens in back to back games.  Lay it with Duke.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Houston -8 over Purdue, Friday at 10 PM ET - The only “sort of” advantage Purdue has in this game is the fact it’s being played in Indianapolis which is 70 miles from their campus. However, this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and not at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers) where the Big 10 tourney was located. So beyond the PU fanbase, that mitigates the home court as neither team has played here this season. The Boilers offense is predicated on the pick n roll with PG Smith and Kaufman-Renn but the problem is, Houston is by far the best PnR defense in the country. Their hard aggressive hedge with long athletes makes is very tough on opposing offenses that rely in PnR. Purdue is not great at protecting the ball and in fact they turned it over a whopping 28% of the time vs McNeese State in the round of 32. That would normally be lights out, however PU did hit 11 triples and gather 41% of their missed shots to counteract the turnovers. That won’t happen here. They will turn the ball over (Houston 18th in the nation at creating turnovers) but the Cougs are very good on the glass AND they will capitalize on the turnovers, something McNeese did not do posting a 0.91 PPP number. On the other end, Purdue’s 2 point defense is very poor (341st nationally) but they also allow a lot of 3 points attempts (262nd). That’s bad news facing a Houston offense that ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. Purdue has had the benefit of facing High Point and McNeese State (2 double digit seeds) to get to this point. Houston just faced vastly underseeded Gonzaga (top 10 team per KenPom) and controlled the entire game never trailing and leading by as much as 14 points. They led by 11 with only a few minutes remaining when the Zags made a late push losing by 5. Houston has lost ONE game since December 1st and that was in OT vs a very good Texas Tech team that is also in the Sweet 16. The Cougs 4 losses have all come by 5 points or less and 2 were in OT so conceivably their 31-4 record could be better. They are the much better team across the board in this game and we’ll lay it.

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -7.5 over Colorado State, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We’ve documented the Mountain West teams struggles historically in the NCAA tourney including dogs hitting less than 30% ATS dating back to 2001. The MWC teams are 2-2 SU and ATS so far in this tourney and their historical struggles are not the reason for this play but we mention it. We were on Maryland on Friday when it seemed the whole world was on Grand Canyon. The Terps took care of business winning 81-49 as 10 point favorites. This Maryland team is really good and underrated right now. They are the 2nd highest rated team in the Big 10 per KenPom and that conference is showing their dominance so far in the NCAA tourney. They finished 15-7 in the Big 10 however all 7 of those losses came by 6 points or less so the Terps were really close to having a fantastic conference season. They are 1 of 7 teams in the country that rank in the top 22 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland’s starting 5 is as good as any in the Big 10 and maybe the country with all 5 averaging between 12 & 16 PPG. They don’t turn the ball over (21st in offensive turnover rate) and hit their 3’s at a high level (26th in 3 point FG%). This team is very complete. We appreciate CSU’s 11 game winning streak but they’ve only played 2 NCAA teams during that stretch. They topped MWC foe Utah State, who lost by 25 points in the opening round vs UCLA, and them beat Memphis in round 1. Their win over the Tigers wasn’t surprising as CSU was favored despite being a lower seed. That’s because Memphis was drastically overseeded and playing without one of the top players and point guard Tyrese Hunter (14 PPG). The Tigers were a 5 seed but had 14 teams ranked higher than them in KenPom that received lower seeds to give you an idea of how overrated they were. Maryland has the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better rebounding team, turn the ball over at a lower rate, and shoot the 3 at a higher percentage. We like the Terps to cover and advance.

#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -5 over UAB, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a brutal spot for UAB. They just played on Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday in the AAC championship game. They lost that game 84-72 vs Memphis ending their hopes for an NCAA tournament berth. Now after 3 games in 3 days in Texas, the Blazers have to travel to Philadelphia and play a little more than 72 hours after losing to the Tigers. Just a really tough situation both physically and mentally for this UAB team. St Joes lost on Saturday in the A10 tourney vs George Mason and that tourney was in Washington DC which is only 150 miles from Philly. They were home on Saturday night and have had plenty of time to rest up and get ready for this home game. Both teams are potent offensively but St Joes has a huge edge on the defensive end. The home team Hawks rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed while UAB ranks 268th and 226th in those 2 key stats. STJ finished 8-1 at home in A10 play (6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite) with their only loss coming vs VCU the conference champion. The Blazers were just 5-5 in true road games this year with all wins coming vs teams outside the top 115 (St Joe’s is ranked 79th per KenPom). The situation heavily favors the host and they are the better team. We’ll lay it.

#708 ASA PLAY ON American -2.5 over Mount Saint Mary’s, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the experience and “age” of American here as they are one of the oldest teams in the country. They start 5 seniors (2 fifth year Super Seniors) who have all played their entire careers for American. They were rated as the 2nd best team in the Patriot league behind Bucknell but won the conference tourney including double digit wins in the semi’s and finals. Since January 5th, this team has won 16 of their last 20 games. We like the scheduling situation much better for this Eagles team. They won the Patriot League championship last Wednesday so they’ve had a full week off. Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, played last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to win the MAAC title and now have to take the road just a few days later. The Mountaineers were rated as the 5th best team in the MAAC and were tabbed as dogs in each of their 3 conference tourney games and pulled upsets in each. They caught some breaks as the 3 teams they faced in their tournament went ice cold from deep with a combined 15 of 75 three point attempts (20%). MTSM was 28 of 75 from 3 during their tourney run (37%) which is above their season average. American should have a solid advantage in turnover margin here as Mt St Mary’s turns the ball over at a rate of 22% which is 5th worst in the nation. American created turnovers al almost a 19% rate in Patriot League play which was the best in the conference and they won the turnover battle in 11 of their final 12 games. That should lead to extra possession for the Eagles which will be very important in a potential close game. These teams are pretty close offensively with American having a slightly better eFG%, a slightly better offensive efficiency, and they do make almost 77% of their FTs which could be key in this one. We’ll lay the small number with American.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas State -4.5 over St Louis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Arkansas State was the highest rated team in the Sun Belt the entire season and lost in the Conference Championship game to Troy. That game was last Monday so they’ve had more than a week to recoup and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to be hosting this game on National TV (ESPNU) as they rarely get that opportunity. It’s the first time ASU has hosted a post-season game since 1991. The Red Wolves are 13-2 at home this season and 23-5 since the start of last season. Their average score at home is 80-64 and they should easily win the shot volume stat in this game. ASU is 12th nationally in FG attempts per game as they take advantage of their opportunities by not turning the ball over (36th nationally in offensive turnover rate) and they get extra chances on the offensive boards (61st in offensive rebounding). St Louis is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they rank 308th in FG attempts per game because they turn the ball over a lot (283rd in offensive turnover rate) and they get very few offensive rebounds (337th). The Billikens have been poor on the road (4-8 record both SU & ATS) and struggle to score away from home (68 PPG). They’ve taken care of lower tier opponents, but when stepping up vs similar or higher tier teams, STL is just 1-11 SU this year (vs Quad 1 and 2 teams). This is a big home game for Arkansas State and we expect them to bring their top effort and cover this number.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -6 over Jacksonville State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Rough spot here for Jacksonville State who played for the CUSA Championship and an auto bid to the Dance on Saturday night. They lost by 12 points to Liberty ending their dream of making it to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in school history. On top of that, they played last Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the title and now are on the road again just a few days later. Georgia Tech has been off since last Thursday when they played Duke very tough losing by 8 in the ACC tourney. The Jackets had no hope of making to the NCAA tournament unless they won the ACC tourney so we expect them to bounce back nicely here. Tech has solid wins this season over both Clemson (on the road) and Louisville (at home) who tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season with a record of 18-2. Their only 2 home losses in conference play this season were vs Duke (#1 per KenPom) and Clemson (#18 per KenPom). Georgia Tech will be the 3rd highest rated team JSU has faced this season and vs top 100 team the Gamecocks are just 1-3 SU. Tech is 12-4 SU vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (JSU is 123rd) and it sounds like they are rejuvenated with 5 days off and able to play at home. We think JSU might be out of gas here and emotionally drained. Lay the points.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -4.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We faded Michigan last night and it turned out to be a poor pick.  Purdue shot the ball very poorly 34% from the field and never had a chance.  Our main concern in that game for the Boilers was defending inside the arc.  They haven’t been good at that this season, although much better as of late, and the Wolverines took advantage of that making a ridiculous 69% of their 2 point shots which led to 52% overall.  That shouldn’t happen today vs a Terp that ranks in the top 50 nationally defending inside the 3 point line.  That means Michigan may have to be hot from deep to pick up a win here and they are not a great outside shooting team ranking 17th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%.  They only shot 30% from deep last night but it didn’t matter because they were scoring at the rim as a very high rate.  The other outlier last night was Michigan only had 6 turnovers.  This is a team that has been terrible at taking care of the ball ranking 330th in offensive turnover rate.  Today we expect them to struggle vs a Maryland defense that can cause problems ranking in the top 45 nationally at creating turnovers.  The Terps destroyed an Illinois team that had been playing at the top of their game coming in.  It was a huge revenge game for the Illini after getting smoked at home by Maryland and they still went on to lost 88-65 yesterday.  To be honest it wasn’t even that close as the Terps led by almost 40 points at one point in the 2nd half.  These 2 met once this season and Maryland traveled to Ann Arbor 10 days ago and won by 5 despite shooting only 38% for the game (Michigan shot 44%).  The Wolverines also shot above their average from deep hitting 35% of their triples and still lost at home.  They turned the ball over 22% of the time in that game which is what we expect today.  Maryland is the better team across the board and we’re not going to let one data point (yesterday) for Michigan change that.  The Wolves were playing terrible over the last month plus entering the tourney and caught Purdue on a night where they shot poorly and Michigan took advantage of poor inside defense.  We’ll lay it here.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -2 over Michigan, Friday at 9 PM ET - We were on Purdue last night and while they topped USC they did not get the cover winning by 5.  We’re coming back with the Boilers tonight vs a Michigan team that was on a sharp decline to end the season.  The Wolverines lost their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 to end the regular season with their only wins coming by 3 vs Nebraska and by 2 vs Rutgers.  They’ve been extremely lucky in tight games winning their last 9 games that were decided by 4 points or less.  In fact, Michigan has not won a game by more than 4 points in 2 months while 4 of their last 5 losses have come by double digits!  They faced Purdue twice this season and got destroyed on the road (91-64) and barely escaped at home (75-73).  The Wolverines finished tied for 2nd in the Big 10 gathering a double bye for this tourney, however KenPom has them ranked as the 7th best team in the conference, well behind this Purdue team.  If we simply look at the Wolverines efficiency over the last month (since mid February), Bart Torvik has them rated as the 14th best team in the 18 team Big 10 conference.  Purdue, despite finishing behind Michigan in the Big 10 standings, is better at most of the key statistics in league play.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency (Michigan is 14th), #1 eFG% (Michigan is 8th), #1 in 3 point FG% (Michigan is 17th), defensive efficiency is almost dead even and Michigan turns the ball over the most in the Big 10 at nearly 20%.  The Boilers are comfortable playing in Indy having played last night and earlier this season while Michigan will be playing their first game here this season.  Right down the road from Purdue this will be a “semi” home game with the crowd factor and we like the Boilermakers to take care of business in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Michigan (started a 4-game losing streak for Purdue) in the most recent meeting! Payback for the Boilers in this one!

#811 ASA PLAY ON St Joes +1.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have St Joe’s as the slightly better overall team and they are getting points in this one.  We like the fact that STJ played yesterday to get acclimated to the large NBA arena (Cap One in DC) while Dayton did not play.  Fatigue won’t be a factor in the 2nd of back to back games but it could be if they continue to win.  The Hawks won 75-70 over LaSalle in what looked like a tight game but it really wasn’t at STJ led by 21 points with just under 4:00 minutes to go in the game before the Explorers went crazy and made 5 triples in the last 3:30 of the game to make the game look like it was competitive.  LaSalle made a ridiculous 65% of their 3’s on the night and still trailed by 20+ points late.  These 2 met once this season back in January and Dayton took that game at home by a final score of 77-72.  The Flyers shot 49% from the field (42% for STJ), 42% from 3 (27% for STJ) and made 4 more FTs yet the game still went to the wire.  Dayton finished 1 game ahead of St Joes on the A10 standings (12-6 record vs 11-7) but if we look at conference only stats, the Hawks were better almost across the board.  STJ had the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better offensive and defensive eFG%, they were the much better rebounding team, and had a better PPG margin (+6.4 to +2.2) despite having 1 fewer win.  The Flyers could be getting an extra bump here because they beat the best team in the A10, VCU, to close out the regular season but the Rams played that game without one of their top players who was injured.  We like this spot for St Joes getting points.

#821 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State +7.5 over Liberty, Friday at 12:30 PM ET - Kennesaw has proven to be a tough match up for Liberty who ranks as the top CUSA team. In their 2 meetings this season Liberty won by 8 @ Kennesaw and the Owls return the favor winning by 5 @ Liberty late in the season. KSU scored 85 at Liberty which was the highest point total the Flames allowed all season. The Owls won that road game by 5 points in early March despite Liberty making 17 more FTs! KSU won the shot volume by a huge margin (+28 shots in the 2 games) in part because they dominated the boards pulling down 24 more rebounds and that should stick in this game. The Owls are tied for the top rebounding team in CUSA +11.5 per game and they rank 2nd in offensive rebounding. Liberty is the 2nd worst rebounding team in the conference getting outboarded by 6 per game. The Owls are very athletic and they are a top notch dribble creation team which gave Liberty’s defense big problems especially in the recent meeting where they hit 51% of their shots. Defensively KSU matches up well with Liberty’s offense with the Owls ranking in the top 75 nationally in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to speed Liberty up in their 2 meetings (70 possessions average) which is not the Flames game. If they are ahead late and need to hold on, Liberty makes only 65% of their FT’s which ranks 345th in the country. KSU has now played 19 conference games, including last night’s win over NM State, and they’ve been topped by more than 8 points just 3 times. This one stays tight like the first 2 meetings and we’ll take the points.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +9.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - This line is set too high in our opinion due to the fact that SMU is in must win mode to try and push back onto the NCAA bubble as they’ve fallen completely off over the last few weeks. You don’t think Cuse has the same mindset as they set out to try and win this tourney which would put them in. The fact is, the Mustangs have been in must win situations over the last month and yet they are just 3-4 SU their last 7 games and 2 of those wins came by 2 and 4 points. One of those wins was at home vs this Syracuse team with the Stangs winning 77-75 on March 4th. SMU shot 54% in that game and never led by more than 2 points. The Orange actually led that game by 12 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the game and blew it and that was on the road. Over the last month (since mid Feb), Syracuse rates as the better team ranking 48th nationally to 75th for SMU (per Bart Torvik) and we’re getting nearly double digits here! We also like that the Orange were able to already play a game here yesterday and get acclimated. They beat Florida State despite making only 2 of 14 three pointers and just 12 of their 22 FT attempts, both well below their season averages. We think Syracuse gives SMU all they can handle here in a game that should be much closer than double digits.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - KSU started the Big 12 season with a 1-6 record but they’ve since won 9 of their last 14 games including wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.  They are getting healthy with starter Hawkins is back in the line up after missing 3 games and 2 of those were losses.  Since late January, KSU rates better than this Baylor team at 29th in the country compared to 33rd (per Bart Torvik).  The Wildcats have been lock down defensively during that stretch with the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers in the country since January 24th.  It took the Cats and head coach Jerome Tang some time to get their talented transfers on the same page but now they are humming and can make a run in this tourney.  Baylor has limped into this tournament losing 5 of their last 8 games since losing starting center Ojianwuna for the season to an injury.  Two of those three wins came by 3 points.  In their lone meeting this season @ Baylor, the Bears won by 8 points but made 12 more FT’s and only had 4 turnovers in the game.  With those numbers they should have handled KSU easily by double digits but they never led that game by more than 9 points (KSU had a 12 point lead at one point).  The Bears continue to be overvalued by the markets with an 0-6-2 ATS run and a spread record of 9-18-2 on the season.  Too many points here as we give Kansas State a decent shot at winning this game outright.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +3.5 over California, Tuesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a rough spot for a Cal team that simply isn’t playing all that well. They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 games with their only 2 wins during that run coming at home vs BC and NC State, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the ACC. The Bears have been on the road since Monday, March 3rd not heading home for 9 straight days. They played, and were blown out, @ Louisville last Wednesday, then lost in 3 OT’s @ Notre Dame on Saturday now playing in Charlotte just a few days later. In their loss @ ND, the Bears never had a lead in the 2nd half but were able to push the game to OT (3 of them in fact). They had 3 starters play 50+ minutes in that loss (and one played 44+ minutes) so we’re expecting a tired team for this afternoon tilt. After a terrible start to the ACC season, the Hokies went 5-6 down the stretch with 4 wins coming on the road. That actually had 5 true road wins this season (5-5 record) while Cal was 2-11 on the road this season. One of Va Tech’s road wins came @ Cal as they topped the Bears 71-68 in their only meeting this year despite the fact the Bears outscored the Hokies by 15 points from 3 + FT line. Not an ideal situation for a Cal team that ranks outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive FG%. The Bears haven’t been favored in a road or neutral game this season and in fact the last time they were laying points away from home was in November of 2022. We don’t think they should be laying points in this one. Let’s take the points with Virginia Tech in this one.

#837 ASA PLAY ON Wofford +1.5 over Furman, Monday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just played on March 1st to close out the regular season and Furman pulled the road upset winning by a final score of 78-75. The Paladins outscored Wofford by 12 points from 3 and FT line yet the game still went to the wire. Wofford shot just 27% from deep in that game while Furman hit 40% of their triples. What kept the Terriers in the game? Rebounding. They are the top rebounding team in the Southern Conference by a wide margin ranking #1 on the offensive and defensive glass. They were +15 on the glass in that loss and pulled in 46% of their missed shots. In the first meeting the Terriers had a similar edge on the glass and shot the ball much better in a 19 point win on the road. In their 2 meetings, Wofford was +32 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 37 offensive rebounds. Despite finishing 1 game below Furman in the SoCon regular season standings, Wofford is rated as the better team (per KenPom) and getting points here. They are also coming off a blowout win yesterday with not a single player logging over 28 minutes and in their 2 games in this tourney (Sat & Sun) only 1 player played more than 30 minutes. Furman, on the other hand, had to go to OT last night vs Chattanooga and picked up a tight win vs a very good Mocs team that was playing without their 2nd leading scorer. Wofford had the better offensive efficiency numbers in conference play this year while on the defensive end the numbers for these 2 teams were almost identical efficiency wise. If they play to their averages and Wofford dominates the boards as we expect, the Terriers will win this game.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Towson -6 over Delaware, Monday at 6 PM ET - Towson won the CAA by 2 full games and topped this Delaware team twice.  One of those wins was by 10 points and the other by 5 in a game they led by 10 with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Tigers led both games by double digits while Delaware’s largest lead in either game was just 6 points.  Situationally Towson gets a huge edge here.  They are playing their 2nd game in 2 days and had 8 guys play double digit minutes yesterday while the Blue Hens are playing their 4th game in 4 days in this CAA tourney with a short bench (336th in bench minutes).  They had lost 11 of their previous 12 games entering the conference tourney and they’ve simply gotten red hot from beyond the arc.  In yesterday’s easy win over W&M, the Hens scored 100 points and shot a ridiculous 63% from deep on 29 attempts. In their 3 tourney games they are hitting just over 49% of their 3’s.  While they are a solid 3 point shooting team on the season, we expect the Hens to come back to earth here with tired legs vs a Towson defense that ranks 4th in the CAA defending the arc and held Delaware to under 32% from deep in their 2 meetings.  Towson should get plenty of extra opportunities as we expect them to dominate the glass vs a poor rebounding team that should have weary legs.  The Tigers rank in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding while the Blue Hens are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their 2 meetings Towson was +24 on the boards including +16 on the offensive glass.  They also turned the ball over at a lower rate (21st nationally in offensive turnover percentage) so the shot volume in this game should be heavily in favor of Towson.  The only downside to this game is the Tigers are not a great FT shooting team but that may not matter if this one isn’t really close late as we don’t expect it to be.  Lay it in this one.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +5.5 over Rutgers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Minnesota has been on an impressive run since mid January going 7-6 during that stretch after starting the Big 10 season 0-6. Even more impressive, they’ve been very good in the road winning 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their only road loss since January 14th was @ Michigan State who just clinched the Big 10 regular season title. The Gophs are one of just 5 Big 10 teams that have a winning record on the road for the season. Rutgers has 5 home losses already this season so they are far from invincible at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Knights have 7 conference wins and 5 have come by 7 points or less so they struggle to win by margin. They are just 4-5 SU at home vs Big 10 opponents this season with a point differential of -21. Tough to lay 2 possessions worth points with a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 300 in FG% allowed, PPG allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed (actually 299th in this stat). Minny has covered 9 of their last 13 as a dog while Rutgers is just 4-7 ATS as a chalk this season and has only been favored 3 times in Big 10 play this year so a role this team is not used to. The Gophers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and even if they don’t get a W here, we expect the game to go to the wire so we’ll take the points.

#710 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -6 over Duquesne, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Saturday at home and they delivered with a huge 98-67 win over Loyola Chicago, a team that ranks 10 spots higher than this Duquesne squad per KenPom. The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 13-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 6-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense and 2nd in eFG% defense. The Billikens sit at 10-7 in league play and the Dukes are just 8-9 despite playing the easier schedule. Duquesne is just 2-7 SU on the road this season and they struggle to score averaging just 67 PPG away from home on 42% shooting. That’s not a great recipe vs STL at home who averages nearly 80 PPG and shoots 48% overall and 38% from deep. Duquesne is coming off their biggest game of the season hosting 1st place VCU a game they lost by 9. Could be a letdown spot for them in their final game of the season and away from home. STL should have some extra incentive after losing @ Dayton on Tuesday, a game they led by 13 at halftime. The Billikens are the better shooting team (FG% and PPG), the better defensive team (FG% and PPG allowed) and they should have a distinct edge at the FT line as the Dukes send teams to the charity stripe a lot (last in the A10 in opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line). Let’s lay it with St Louis at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON WVU -7.5 over UCF, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We faded UCF on the road last Saturday @ TCU and came up with a nice win with the Frogs winning by 9. We’ll go against the Golden Knights again on the road where they’ve been flat out bad this season. They are 2-7 SU on the road this season and they’ve lost 6 straight road games and they’ve won only 3 of their last 11 games. Those 3 wins all came at home vs Utah, Oklahoma St, and KSU who all have losing records in the Big 12. We expect UCF to be flat for this somewhat meaningless game after they won on Senior Night at home on Wednesday. That was their big game. The Knights are most likely going to be seeded in the 12 to 13 range for the upcoming Big 12 tourney. WVU has lots of motivation in this one. It’s their home finale and they will honor 6 seniors playing their final game. They also can ill afford a loss as they attempt to make the NCAA tourney and they are currently seeded around a 9 or 10 seed by most bracketologists so far from a lock. They face a UCF offense that is not a great shooting team (320th in FG%) and this WVU defense is a terrible match up for them as they allow only 58 PPG at home on 39% shooting. Huge defensive edge for the Mountaineers in this game as they rank 16th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCF ranks 16th in the CONFERENCE (dead last) in defensive efficiency. The Knights will also be without 2 key players on Saturday with starting guard Ivy-Curry (13 PPG) and key reserve Mikey Williams both injured. A bad shooting team that is also not good defensively makes it really tough to win on the road. We think the Knights will be simply playing out the regular season here and focusing on the Big 12 tourney while WVU will have lots of motivation. Lay it.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee -15.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - South Carolina is locked into the #16 seed (last) in the SEC tourney with a 2-16 conference record and nothing to play for in this game. Our guess is they are as flat as a pancake in this one playing away from home with nothing really to play for as next Wednesday starts their “new” season. On top of that, the Gamecocks have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. They are 0-8 SU on the road in SEC play and 1-9 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Boston College who currently sits with a 4-15 record in the ACC. Their average score on the road PPG margin this year is -16 PPG allowing 80 PPG while scoring just 64 PPG. Here are some the South Carolina’s road results this season…lost by 30 @ Missouri, lost by 23 @ Kentucky, lost by 21 @ Florida, lost by 35 @ Mississippi St, lost by 20 @ Oklahoma and the Vols are rated higher than all of those teams with the exception of the Gators. Every road loss they’ve had this season has been by double digits with the exception of their game @ Vandy. The Vols will be very motivated on Senior Day coming off a 2 point loss @ Ole Miss. Head coach Rick Barnes called his team out for being “soft” in that game and UT guard Jordan Gainey didn’t disagree. “We’re a tough group of guys,” Tennessee senior guard Jordan Gainey said after the game, “and whenever we get out toughed, it’s personal. It felt more personal than anything because they did the things we usually do.” Bad news for South Carolina who will really struggle offensively in this game. The Vols allow just 60 PPG at home on 37% shooting and they will bring extra energy to this one. On top of that, the Gamecocks upset Tennessee here last year (SC was MUCH better a year ago) and the Vols haven’t forgotten that one. A win here locks up a double bye in the SEC tourney for Tennessee and this has the makings of a blowout. The Vols take out their frustrations in the home finale and roll to a huge win.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -4 over Purdue, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the Illini on Sunday as a dog @ Michigan and they rolled to an easy 20 point win. As we mentioned in our analysis for that game, we feel Illinois is undervalued as they approach the end of the regular season. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season however they Illini are now getting healthy. They finally had everyone back in the line up last week and they blasted both Iowa and Michigan by 20 points. They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. The Boilers are coming off back to back home wins vs UCLA & Rutgers but on the road it’s been a different story this season. They are 5-5 SU away from home but as of late they’ve lost 3 in a row away from home @ Michigan, @ Michigan St, and @ Indiana. The Boilers average 85 PPG at home on 1.24 PPP but on the road that drops like a rock in the ocean with an average of 70 PPG on 1.05 PPP. Their defense has been a sieve inside the arc ranking 337th and dead last in the Big 10 defending inside. That’s a problem vs a full strength Illinois team that has been great inside ranking 14th nationally in 2 point FG%. That inside advantage for the Illini will also pay off on the boards where they rank inside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding with Purdue ranking outside the top 150 in both. PU will have to be red hot from deep to have a chance here and we like Illinois to win and cover in their home finale.

#306504 ASA PLAY ON Radford -3.5 over Presbyterian, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 Big South rivals split 2 games this season with Radford winning on the road by 13 and Presbyterian winning on the road on Feb 22nd by 7. In the most recent meeting @ Radford in late February PU averaged 1.27 PPP, way above their season average of 1.05 PP and made 27 of 32 FT’s (84%) which was unlikely from a team that shoots 69% from the foul line this season. Presbyterian also outrebounded Radford, the much better rebounding game. So there were definitely some outliers in their most recent match up and the better team, Radford has some extra motivation after losing at home late in the season. Radford finished 4th in the conference but is rated by KenPom as the #2 team in the Big South behind only High Point, the 1st place team in the conference. 6 of Radford’s 7 conference losses came by 7 points or fewer with their only loss by more than that margin was vs High Point, the best team in the league. PU finished with a losing Big South record at 7-9 and over half of those losses (5) were by double digits. Radford ranks 2nd in the Big South in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the top 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting almost 40% of their triples. They also hit nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play and almost 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (15th nationally). The most recent match up had a number of outliers including a bad FT shooting team Presbyterian hitting 12 more FT’s than Radford, and if everything plays to the averages here, Radford covers this number.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +6.5 over Robert Morris, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is the team #1 seed Robert Morris did not want to see in the Horizon League tourney. Wright State finished 8-12 in the conference but they are much better than their record and a dangerous team in this tourney. They are a fantastic offensive team that ranks 14th nationally in FG% and 6th in the country in 3 point FG%. They’d have a much better record but they’ve lost a bunch of really close games with a 3-9 SU record this year in games decided by 6 points or less. 9 of their losses this season have come by 4 points or fewer or in OT. In their 2 games vs Robert Morris this season, Wright State won by 2 at home and lost by 3 on the road and last season the Raiders won both games big by 25 & 30 points. RM is a very solid overall defensive team but their Achilles heel is defending the arc where they rank 214th nationally. WSU shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc in their 2 meetings combined and that’ll be a problem for RM again in this game. Wright just hit 14 of 30 from 3 point land on Monday in their round one 98-85 win over IU Indy. The Colonials do come into this tourney winning 13 of their last 14 games, however their one loss during that stretch was vs this Wright State team. It’s not a great match up for the #1 seed Robert Morris and we look for another close game. While Robert Morris has the better record this season, Wright State has been the better program with 9 consecutive winning seasons prior to this year while the Colonials are sitting on their first winning season since 2020. Take the points.

#681 ASA PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on Illinois +3 @ Michigan on Sunday and the Illini destroyed the Wolverines 93-73. We’re on the Terps tonight, a team that rates better than that Illinois team and they sit 15 spots higher than Michigan in KenPom’s rankings. The Terps are surging winning 9 of their last 11 games with both of those losses coming by 3 points vs Ohio St and Michigan St. The Wolverines are trending down losing 2 of their last 4 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming by 2 points vs Rutgers and by 3 vs Nebraska. As we’ve stated in our other Michigan write ups, this team has not won a game by more than 4 points since January 12th. They are now in 2nd place in the Big 10 behind MSU, but their PPG margin in conference play in barely above water at +0.9 PPP which is 7th in the league. Maryland is 4th in the conference in that state at +6.8 PPG. The knock on the Terps early in the season was they couldn’t win on the road. That narrative is now gone as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 road games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 3 points @ OSU in a game Maryland led by 17 points. The Buckeyes first lead in the 2nd half in that game was with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Maryland is simply the better team, and not by a small margin, across the board in this game. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively, shoot it better from 3, turn the ball over at a much lower rate (Michigan is last in the Big 10 in offensive turnover percentage), and Maryland is better from the FT line. Michigan has a huge revenge game on deck @ MSU and they remain a money burner as a favorite with a 3-11 ATS record in Big 10 play. We like Maryland to win this game outright.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - UVA began the ACC season with a 1-6 record and they’ve since gone 6-5 to pull into a tie with FSU and Pitt with a 7-11 conference mark. FSU is headed in the other direction losing 8 of their last 11 games with a lame duck (retiring at the end of the season) coach Leonard Hamilton and they’ve played below their expected efficiency in 4 of their last 5 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Cavs are the much better 3 point shooting team ranking in the top 25 nationally at almost 38% while FSU struggles from deep (280th nationally). They make an average of only 6 triples per game which ranks 327th and on the road they make closer to 5 per game. Adding fuel to the fire, the Noles are a poor 3 point defensive team ranking 12th in ACC games giving up almost 37% from deep. Needless to say, we expect the home team to have a big advantage from beyond the arc in this game. The Noles are just 2-8 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming @ Miami, the worst team in the ACC. Their other win came by 2 points @ Wake Forest in a game they trailed by 16 points with just 8:00 remaining and outscored the Deacs 28-9 from that point on. FSU wants to play fast and when they’ve faced the slowest paced teams in the ACC and forced them to play in a half court game, they haven’t done well. There are 5 teams in the conference that rank 250th or lower nationally in adjusted tempo (UVA, Clemson, NC State, Va Tech, and Notre Dame) and FSU has a record of 1-4 SU in those games. UVA is one of the slowest teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and they will force the Seminoles to play at a pace they do not like. If this is close late, the Cavs have made nearly 78% of their FT’s in ACC play. It’s their final home game of the season and we expect a huge effort from UVA. Not so sure about FSU on the road. Lay it.

#628 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -9 over Miami, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Tech should have a huge motivation edge in this game as they played their final home tilt of the season and they are fighting to stay in 8th place to avoid the first day games (seeds 10 thru 15 play the first day).  A win tonight would give the Yellow Jackets their 10th ACC win for the first time in the last 4 seasons.  They have 13 home wins and have won 5 in a row at home.  They’re coming off a 87-62 win here over the weekend vs NC State and they’ve easily handled the lowest rated teams in the conference here at home.  The 5 lowest rated teams in the league are Miami, NC State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse and GT is 3-0 at home vs that grouping winning by an average margin of +18 PPG.  Keep in mind Miami is the worst of all of those teams.  On the other side of the court, Miami was just eliminated from the ACC tourney with their blowout loss @ UNC over the weekend so they have nothing to play for.  The Canes have been terrible all season (2-16 ACC record) and if they decide to bring the intensity for one final game, our guess would be it is this weekend when they host NC State and have a chance to end the season with a home win.  The Canes are 0-9 SU on the road losing by an average of 15 PPG.  Their defense has been atrocious ranking 363rd in opponent FG% and 364th defending the arc and that’s out of 364 D1 teams.  Miami has to be distracted with interim coach Bill Courtney gone after these final 2 games and rumors swirling about who will be the next head coach (sounds like Duke assistant Jai Lucas has the inside track).  They may also be without starting C Kidd (12 PPG and 7 RPG) who has an injured ankle and missed their game over the weekend.  The Canes are 9-20 ATS and this one has blowout potential.

ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.

#676 ASA PLAY ON TCU -3 over UCF, Saturday at 4 PM ET - TCU has played #1 most difficult Big 12 schedule to date. UCF has played an easier schedule (5th SOS in conference) yet TCU has the better record at 8-9 in Big 12 play compared to 6-11 for UCF. We’re catching the Horned Frogs on a good bounce back spot at home coming off back to back road losses @ Cincinnati and @ WVU. Now they are back home where they have a 13-2 record with some impressive wins over high level opponents including Texas Tech, BYU, and Xavier. The Golden Knights are off back to back home wins after a 7 game losing streak. Their recent home wins vs Utah and Kansas State were both down to the wire with margins of 4 points. The Utes are the 3rd lowest rated team in the Big12 and fired their coach following that tight loss. KSU went on a nice run winning 6 in a row but have since lost 4 straight and played at UCF without key starter Hawkins (11 PPG and 7 RPG). Now Central Florida goes on the road where they’ve been terrible 2-6 record and they’ve lost 5 straight away from home. TCU will be extra motivated for this one of their worst losses of the season was @ UCF losing 85-58 as a 4 point dog. The Frogs shot 20 triples in that game and made ONE! They were outscored in that game by 43 points from the 3 point line + FT line. Just one of those games where everything went wrong for TCU. The Knights are a poor shooting team ranking 312th in FG% and on the other end they rank dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Not a good recipe for success on the road. We’ll lay the small number here with the Horned Frogs.

#672 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -2.5 over Loyola, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met two weeks ago and we were on Loyola -2.5 in that game and picked up a win with the Ramblers winning by 9. However, it was much closer than that final score as the game was actually tied with 3:00 minutes remaining. Loyola shot a higher percentage in that game and made 50% of their 3’s (12 of 24). We don’t expect a repeat performance from deep for Loyola as St Louis leads the conference defending the arc allowing only 30% on the season (A10 games). The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 12-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 5-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense AND defense. The Ramblers have a losing record on the road in conference play (3-4 SU) and their 3 road wins have come vs LaSalle, Richmond, and Davidson. The first 2 are the lowest rated teams in the A10 and Davidson has a 6-9 league record. Loyola has a negative point differential on the road this season while STL is outscoring their opponents by +11 PPG at home. The Ramblers offense is averaging just 0.985 PPP on the road (1.08 at home) while allowing 1.042 PPP (they allow 0.933 at home). Quick revenge for STL in a game that was close for 37 minutes on the road just 2 weeks ago. Lay it.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -7.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Ole Miss is in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses including a 30 point setback at #1 Auburn on Wednesday night. It was an embarrassing performance, especially on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to score 1.50 PPP while shooting 60% from the field. A definite outlier as the Mississippi defense on the season allows 0.95 PPP (21st nationally) and just 42% from the field. You can bet that head coach Chris Beard, a defensive specialist, will have this team ready to go full speed ahead on Saturday. They are facing a down trending Oklahoma team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and the Sooners are coming off a gut wrenching 1 point home loss vs Kentucky who scored the go ahead bucket with only a few seconds remaining. After that tough loss OU goes on the road where they’ve been really poor this season with a 1-6 record. Their numbers drop off a cliff away from home where they have lost by an average of 17 PPG while scoring just 66 PPG and giving up 83 PPG. The Sooners are shooting only 39% away from home and all but 1 of their SEC road losses have come by double digits. We expect with the Ole Miss defense being completely focused here that the Oklahoma offense will really struggle in this game. The Rebs should also get plenty of extra possessions in this game as they rarely turn the ball over (#2 nationally in offensive turnover percentage) while OU coughs the ball up quite often ranking 14th in the SEC in that key stat. Ole Miss needs a ‘get right’ game as they’ve dropped to a projected 8 seed in the NCAA after their rough 3 game stretch. The Rebels win by double digits.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over UCLA, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue at the bottom of the market and in a must win spot after 4 straight losses. 3 of those losses were on the road and their 1 home setback during this stretch was vs Wisconsin who rates as the Big 10’s best team per KenPom. The Boilers were favored by more vs the Badgers (-6) than they currently are vs UCLA (-5 at the open) despite Wisconsin being ranked 20 spots higher than the Bruins per KenPom. Another recent comparison was UCLA’s trip to Illinois where they were 7 point dogs and now only 5 vs Purdue despite the Boilers being the higher rated team. We’re getting some home value with PU because of their losing streak. The Bruins game @ Illinois looks like a down to the wire affair if you simply look at the final score which was 83-78 but the fact is the Illini led that game by 16 points with 4:00 minutes remaining and never trailed once in the contest. UCLA is 4-4 on the road this season and 2 of those wins were short trips to lower tier Big 10 teams USC and Washington. When they’ve had to make long travel going east, the Bruins have losses @ Illinois, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska, and @ Maryland. On the road averages only 68 PPG (they average 80 PPG at home) on just 0.994 PPP (they average 1.177 PPP at home). The Boilermakers are 28-2 SU at home since the start of last season and Mackey Arena is widely respected as the most difficult road venue in the Big 10. UCLA has never made the trek to Mackey so unfamiliar territory for the Bruins. These 2 are tied in 4th place in the conference with 11-5 record, however Purdue has played the more difficult slate and they have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. We like the desperate Boilers to win and cover at home on Friday night.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers +10.5 over Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Too many points here as the Wolverines tend to play close games win or lose. Michigan is tied for 1st in Big Ten (with MSU) with 13-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was nearly a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. It’s also not an ideal spot for the Wolverines as they’ve already beaten Rutgers and have a HUGE game on deck with Illinois so a look ahead is highly possible. In that first meeting Michigan won on the road by 3 points but Rutgers played without their leading scorer Dylan Harper (5th leading scorer in the conference) who averages just under 20 PPG. Speaking of Harper, the Scarlet Knights are obviously much better with him in the line up and he’s been in and out all season with injuries and illness. They are 7-10 in Big 10 play, however when Harper is healthy they are 6-6 so a .500 SU record. Rutgers has been very competitive with a PPG margin in the conference of -4 PPG and of their 14 losses (14-14 overall record) the Knights have only lost 2 of those games by more than 14 points. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-9 ATS. We think Rutgers will give Michigan all they can handle here and we’ll take the generous points.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State -2.5 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - This is the Beavers final home game of the season which should bring some extra motivation to this contest. Not that extra motivation is needed as a loss @ USF earlier in this season will take care of that. In the first match up, the Dons won at home 81-70 as a -4.5 point favorite. The box score for San Francisco was ridiculous as they shot 60% overall for the game and 59% from beyond the arc hitting 13 of 22. They’ll have a tough time getting anywhere near those numbers tonight as USF shoots just 41% on the road and 32% from deep barely averaging 1.00 PPP. Along with the Dons hitting everything in sight in the first meeting, OSU was just 1 of 9 from beyond the arc (11%) so they were outscored by a whopping 36 points from beyond the arc and lost by only 11 points on the road. At home, OSU has been outstanding offensively hitting 51% of their shots, 40% of their 3’s and averaging 1.18 PPP which is top 30 in the nation (for home teams). The Beavers poor offensive numbers from the first meeting should rise dramatically at home tonight. The one thing OSU did have an advantage on offense in that meeting was at the FT line where they made 21 to USF’s 14. We anticipate the Beavs will have an advantage again tonight as they get to the FT line more than any team in the WCC (percentage of points from the FT line) while USF sends opponents to the line more than any team in the conference. When Oregon State gets there, they make 80% in WCC play. They are 15-2 at home (14-2 ATS) with their only losses coming vs Oregon (by 3 points) and St Mary’s who already clinched the WCC Title. San Franciso has a losing road record (4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS) and a negative point differential away from home on the season. This number is too small and we’ll take advantage of the value with the home team. Take Oregon State.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over BYU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Great spot for ASU to pull the upset here. The Devils had lost 6 in a row, including 3 vs top 12 teams (KenPom) and they finally picked up some momentum with a solid 12 point win @ Kansas State over the weekend. Because of their losing streak, we’re still getting some value here despite the solid road win. BYU recently played @ WVU and @ Cincinnati and the Cougs were 2 point dogs in those 2 games vs teams that rate almost identical to Arizona State but now they’re laying 4 on the road in this game (opening number). It’s a terrible spot for BYU playing their 2nd straight road game after pulling off a big upset @ Arizona late on Saturday night. It was a crazy, controversial ending with BYU getting fouled with just 3 seconds remaining and hitting both FT’s to win by 96-95. The Cougars went crazy on the offensive end hitting 55% overall and 45% of their 3’s (made 13 triples). They also averaged a ridiculous 1.37 PPP, this from a BYU team that is averaging 1.06 PPP on the road this season. Defensively they continued to struggle allowing 1.36 PPP and 54% from the field for Arizona. Not all that surprising as BYU allows opponents to hit nearly 50% and 40% from 3 away from home. They rank 11th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 3 point FG% allowed. BYU has a losing road record (4-5) and they are getting outscored by an average of 5 PPG. Not only do they have a negative point differential on the road, they also have a negative PPP differential (efficiency) and a negative FG% and 3 point FG% differential. We think ASU has a great shot to pull this upset. Take the points.

#631 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech +9 over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Pitt isn’t playing well enough to be nearly a double digit favorite in this game.  They have won just 4 of their last 13 games and none of those wins have come by more than 11 points and that 11 point win came at home vs Syracuse who is rated as the 3rd worst team in the ACC.  They rank 357th in Haslam Metrics Momentum category (out of 364 teams) solidifying how poor they’ve been playing as of late.  The Panthers are just 2-5-1 ATS as a home favorite in conference play losing 3 of those games outright and they’ve already lost 6 games SU as a chalk this season.  They are ranked 74th nationally per Bart Torvik metrics however since mid January the Panthers are ranked just 131st (14th in the ACC during that stretch) while Georgia Tech is in the top 100 during that time.  During that stretch since mid January Pitt ranks 97th in offensive efficiency, 193rd in defensive efficiency, and 356th defending the 3 point shot.  Tech has won 4 of their last 6 games including topping 2 of the ACC’s best teams, Clemson & Louisville.  The Jackets defense has been very good all season ranking in the top 85 and this month they rank 58th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve done a great job of not fouling ranking #1 in the ACC in opponents percentage of points from the FT line.  We think Tech keeps this game very close and we’ll take the points.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Florida State +3.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Heels have won 3 straight which may look to some like they are surging but those wins came vs Syracuse, NC State, and UVA, all ranked outside the top 100 and 2 of those wins were at home. Their 1 road win during that stretch came by 6 points @ Syracuse (5-11 record in conference play) in a game they outscored the Orange by 27 points from beyond the arc and it was still a down to the wire (2 point game with 40 seconds remaining). Despite that road win vs one of the ACC’s lowest rated teams, the Heels have been poor away from home. They are 0-7-1 ATS away from home this year and lost 4 in a row SU on the road before beating the Cuse. UNC has a losing record on the road and they are getting outscored by 4 PPG away from home. Offensively the Tar Heels average 1.15 PPP (efficiency) at home and that drops to 1.04 on the road. Defensively they allow just 0.96 PPP at home but that jump drastically to 1.09 PPP on the road. FSU has won 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 losses during that stretch coming vs Louisville and Clemson, 2 of the top 3 rated teams on the ACC. Their 8 points loss @ Louisville on Saturday (easy cover for FSU) was fairly impressive to be honest as they were -26 points in that game from the 3 point line and FT line combined and still kept it close vs a very good team on the road. The Noles are 10-4 at home this season with a +7 PPG margin. While UNC’s numbers fall off on the road, FSU’s are much better at home especially on defense where they allow just 0.94 PPP which is the 3rd best mark in the conference. The Noles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and are top 25 in block shot percentage and top 55 in creating turnovers (defensive turnover percentage). We think FSU has a great shot to pull the upset here (not even sure it’s an upset if they do). Take the points.

#858 ASA PLAY ON UCF -2.5 over Utah, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We’re absolutely catch UCF at the bottom of the market after they have lost 7 straight games. We’re also catching Utah off 2 huge home wins over Kansas & Kansas State and now going on the road where they’ve been terrible this season. This isn’t just any road game as the Utes make their furthest trek of the season (over 2,300 miles) to Orlando. Utah is 1-6 SU on the road this season and they are losing those games by an average of 15 PPG. They shoot just 39% on the road while hitting only 28% of their triples and averaging a paltry 61 PPG on only 0.932 PPP. It’s going to be tough for them to keep up with a UCF offense that averages 79 PPG on the season. While the Golden Knights have been in a funk, they are 10-5 at home and all 5 of those losses have come vs teams that rank at least 20 spots higher than Utah per KenPom including high level opponents Houston, BYU, Kansas, and Iowa State. UCF has played the most difficult strength of schedule in league play while Utah has faced the 11th most difficult slate yet still has a losing record in the Big 12. If this game was played a month ago, we’d be looking at UCF laying 2 or 3 more points. We like them to break their losing streak at home on Sunday afternoon.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Razors are coming off 2 tight road losses vs top 10 teams losing at Auburn by 7 and @ Texas A&M by 8. They had won 3 of 4 prior to that and Arkansas is now in must win mode at home as they sit squarely on the bubble. This is their final regular season “statement” type game for the NCAA tournament committee as their 4 remaining conference games are vs Texas, South Carolina, Vandy, and Mississippi State all ranked outside the top 25 per KenPom. Head coach John Calipari has already said that every game from here on out is a tournament game for his team. They catch Missouri in a huge letdown spot after they upset Bama at home on Wednesday. They caught the Tide in a letdown spot as Alabama was coming off a home loss vs Auburn when the two rivals were ranked #1 and #2 in the AP Poll. On top of that, the Tigers already beat Arkansas handily at home by 18 points so another reason to possibly overlook this game. That first meeting @ Missouri was the Razors 5th consecutive loss as they were playing as poorly as they have all season. However, since that loss, the Razorbacks have been playing much better topping their projected efficiency and 6 of their last 8 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Tigers really thrive on making 3’s and getting to the FT line with very little coming inside the arc (325th nationally in percentage of points from 2 point land). The Arkansas defense matches up nicely in that regard as they keep opponents off the FT line and defend the arc very well (37th nationally). This one has upset written all over it. We’ll take the points with Arkansas.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Portland State -2.5 over Weber State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Weber State has been playing terrible basketball since losing 2 key senior starters in the last month. They lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer and they have won only 2 of their last 11 games and after losing their 2 key seniors, the Wildcats are playing more underclassmen than any other team in the Big Sky. It’s not as if they’ve had a home court advantage this season with just a 1-6 SU record at home in conference play and 1-9 overall at home vs D1 opponents. Their one win came by 4 points vs Northern Arizona who is 6-9 in conference play. The Wildcats have the worst defense in the Big Sky allowing 1.13 PPP and today they are facing a Portland State team that has the best defense in the conference allowing 0.99 PPP in Big Sky games. PSU ranks #1 defensively in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and defensive turnover rate. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Idaho State on Thursday but still sit in 3rd place in the conference despite playing the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule in the league. They have been solid on the road with 5 wins which is more wins than Weber has at home. These 2 met already this season and PSU rolled to an easy 74-56 win dominating the glass (+13 boards) while holding Weber St to just 0.86 PPP and 35% from the field. Not only that, the PSU defense did that when Weber was a full strength prior to their 2 key injuries. The Vikings averaged 1.14 PPP on 49% shooting and that success should continue on offense. They rank 31st nationally hitting 48% of their shots and facing a Weber State defense outside the top 300 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. This line is light as it factors in the Wildcats playing at home where they haven’t been winning. We’ll take the much better team laying this small number.

#885 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +3.5 over Michigan, Friday at 8 PM ET - Huge game in Michigan on Friday as the Wolverines sit in first place in the Big 10, a half game ahead of Sparty. The Wolverines have been extremely fortunate with 9 of their 12 Big 10 wins coming by 4 points or less. Their last 7 wins have come by margins of 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, and 3 points with 4 of those 7 wins coming vs teams ranked in the bottom half of the conference. We think their tight game luck runs out tonight. Despite being just behind the Wolverines in 2nd place, MSU is the better team. If we look at Big 10 games, the Spartans are more efficient offensively (3rd in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan), more efficient defensively (1st in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan) and they rank #1 in offensive rebounding, FT% (80%), percentage of points from the FT line, eFG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. Michigan State has been a dog just 5 times this season and they are 3-1-1 ATS in that role winning those 3 games outright. They have a very solid 16-9-1 ATS record on the season. Michigan, on the other hand, has gone 7 straight games without covering as a favorite and they are 2-9 ATS as a favorite in conference play. The one thing MSU does not do well is shoot the 3 but they shouldn’t be at a huge disadvantage in this one as Michigan ranks only 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG% and they are facing MSU’s defense who ranks #1 defending the arc. This one should be tight so we’ll grab the points.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Elon +2 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Elon is 7-7 in the CAA yet opened up as favored over first place Towson who is 13-1? That line is telling you who you should side with here. Elon’s most recent home game was an embarrassing loss to NC A&T which gave the last place Aggies their only conference win of the season thus far. The Phoenix bounced back nicely after that terrible loss topping the highest rated team in the CAA (UNC Wilmington) 81-70 on the road on Saturday. Now they get a chance to redeem that home loss vs the first place team in the conference. It’s a nice match up for Elon as their defense has been lights out ranking 16th nationally in FG% allowed (39%) and 45th in the country allowing just 31% from beyond the arc. They are facing a Towson offense that shoots just 41% on the season (340th in the country) while scoring only 68 PPG (307th). The Tigers have 1 loss in conference play but they’ve been quite fortunate winning a number of very tight games. In fact, their record in CAA games decided by 7 points or less or in OT is a perfect 9-0 and overall for the season in that role (all games) they are 13-3 in that situation. This team has won 12 straight, many were decided in the final few minutes, and they are due for a loss. This is not a great match up for Towson and we think they go down here. The Phoenix have the 2nd best spread mark in the CAA at 15-9 ATS and we like them to get it done at home tonight.

#724 ASA PLAY ON Washington State +12.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re absolutely catching value on Washington State here as we get them at the bottom of their market so to speak. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games which has driven this line quite a bit higher than in should be in our opinion. 5 of those 6 losses during that stretch for the Cougars came on the road and their 1 home loss was by 5 vs a very good St Mary’s team that beat Gonzaga already this year. To give you an idea of the line value, in that loss vs St Mary’s the Cougars were +6 at and now plus more than double that vs a Gonzaga team that lost by 4 vs the Gaels. Along with that, Gonzaga has been overvalued by the oddsmakers all year with a 10-17 ATS record. Wazzu is 9-2 at home (losses by 1 and 5 points) this season and their home splits are much better than their road numbers. They already rank 12th nationally hitting almost 49% of their shots overall, but at home that number jumps to 52% and they average 88 PPG in Beasley Coliseum, which is by the way sold out for this game. We feel it’s going to be difficult for the Zags to pull away from this really solid offensive team. 5 of Gonzaga’s 7 losses have come away from home (road or neutral) and in the first meeting with Washington State this year, the Zags were favored by 17 at home and won by 13. Now they are laying close to the same number on the road. In that first meeting Wazzu played without starter Watts (13 PPG) and he is now back and healthy. In that win, Gonzaga shot 56%, made 48% of their 3’s and made 7 more FT’s. Also, keep in mind that the Zags have a look ahead game on Saturday with St Mary’s who beat them a few weeks ago. We think Washington State brings everything they have in this game and it stays closer than most think. Take the points.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota State -6.5 over North Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota State has been unbeatable at home this year with a 12-0 SU record (7-2 ATS) and all but one of those wins has come by double digits.  They just faced the 2 teams currently battling them for 1st place in the Summit League, Omaha and St Thomas, and beat those 2 teams by 13 and 16 points respectively.  The Jackrabbits are shooting 53% overall at home, 39% from deep, and winning by an average score of 90-69.  While SDSU just easily took care of Omaha and St Thomas, North Dakota State is 0-5 SU vs those 3 teams (including SDSU) who sit in the top 3 spots in the conference.  The Jackrabbits already beat North Dakota State by 10 on the road this season limiting the Bison to just 7 of 30 (23%) from beyond the arc.  Not a huge surprise as South Dakota State is the #1 team in the Summit defending the arc.  NDSU is a team that relies more than any other team in the country on scoring from beyond the arc and if they aren’t hitting from deep they are in trouble.  While the Bison may struggle offensively here, don’t expect SDSU to have any problems on that end of the court.  NDSU ranks outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and they are allowing 78 PPG away from home.  The Bison simply aren’t playing well right now as they faced the 2 worst teams in the Summit at home last Thursday and Saturday (Denver & Oral Roberts – both ranked outside the top 300) and went to OT with both (ultimately winning 2 tight games).  We like South Dakota State to get another double digit home win tonight.

#615 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3.5 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue off a bad home outing vs Wisconsin and Michigan State off an upset win @ Illinois. We really like this situation for the Boilers. Their 10 point home loss on Saturday vs a red hot Wisconsin team was a game where the Badgers simply couldn’t miss hitting 62% of their shots overall and 40% of their triples. The Boilers, who thrive on creating turnovers (#1 in the Big 10) only forced 3 turnovers by the Badgers. Deadly shooting and almost no giveaways led the Badgers to that win on the road. Purdue’s other 2 Big 10 losses went to the wire losing by 3 vs OSU and by 2 vs Michigan. The Spartans shouldn’t be able to exploit the Boilers from deep as they are simply not a good 3 point shooting team as they rank 353rd nationally making only 29% of their triples this season (350th in made 3’s per game). They also turn the ball over a lot (15th in the Big 10 with a 17% turnover percentage) so that also plays directly into the Boilers defensive strength of creating giveaways. PU should have a big advantage from deep ranking 26th nationally hitting 38% of their 3 balls. While they are off an upset win @ Illinois, the Spartans have cooled off drastically after their 9-0 start to the conference season losing 3 of their last 5 games including a setback at home vs Indiana, the Hoosiers only win in their last 7 games. We like looking for really solid teams off bad performances and that’s what we’re getting here with Purdue. Not only that, they are underdogs so we have some cushion here. We like Purdue to keep this very close and have a shot on the road win (5-2 SU on the road in the Big 10 this season).

#306545 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -3.5 over Eastern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Lipscomb sits in 1st place in the Atlantic Sun and they are easily the best team in the league ranking 86th nationally per KenPom.  No other team in that conference ranks above 114th.  We’re getting the best team in the league with some extra motivation as they lost at home vs EKU just a few weeks ago.  In that game the Bisons shot only 39% which is well below their season average of 48% in league play which ranks them #1 in the conference.  EKU ranks 9th defensively in the ASun in FG% allowed at 46% so it’s not as if they are a lock down defensive team.  It was just one of those games for the Lipscomb offense.  Speaking of #1, here are the stats that Lipscomb leads the Asun in…FG%, scoring margin (+12.4 PPG), defensive FG%, defensive 3 point FG%, defensive scoring (allowing 67 PPG), and defensive rebounding.  8 of their 11 conference wins have come by double digits and none by less than 5 points.  On the road this team has only lost once in league play vs Northern Alabama who is tied with Lipscomb for 1st place in the conference.  The Bison were favored by 9.5 in their loss vs EKU and now we’re getting them at a low number because they are on the road.  Great value as this team is outstanding on the road and EKU doesn’t  have a great home court advantage (already 3 home losses this season).  All 3 of those losses came vs teams ranked 112th or lower, well below this Lipscomb team.  EKU is 10-4 in the conference but they rank middle of the pack in the league (5th per KenPom) and they have a negative FG% differential and 3 point FG% differential in conference games.  Lipscomb is the much better team and extra motivated for this one.  We’ll lay it.

#857 ASA PLAY ON Utah State +6.5 over New Mexico, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played just over 2 weeks ago and USU was favored by 4 at home in that game. They lost big, which is a rarity, and now we’re getting value here with the Utes getting a full +6 at the opener. USU’s loss at home vs the Lobos was by far their worst performance of the season. They lost 82-63, shot just 38% and from beyond the arc the Utes were 5 of 31 (16%) and made only 10 of 23 FT’s. That’s from a team that leads the Mountain West in conference games hitting over 37% of their triples. Just one of the games where nothing was going in which happens even to the best teams from time to time. We don’t expect a repeat performance from Utah State who is one of the best shooting teams in the nation (5th nationally in FG%) and they lead the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. All those factors along with the fact they rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the MWC in offensive turnover rate) is why this team is so good on the road. They have a near perfect 7-1 record away from home with their only loss coming by 3 points. They have already topped some really good teams on the road including San Diego State, St Mary’s, and Nevada. The Utes shoot better on the road than they do at home (51% on the road) and they are allowing just 68 PPG away from home. The Lobos sit in 1st place in the MWC and USU is one game behind them so this is a big one. New Mexico is very good but this is too many points for a team that is also very good and has some extra incentive after getting embarrassed a few weeks ago. USU is 22-3 on the year with a 2 point loss, a 3 point loss, and then their poor performance vs the Lobos. The Utes have actually won 9 of the last 16 @ New Mexico and we think this one goes to the wire. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Western Kentucky -2 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - WKY had a needed week off since playing last Saturday as they look to get some players back in the lineup. Last Saturday they battled valiantly with just 8 players available at 1st place Jacksonville State before losing 85-83. The Hilltoppers blew a 19 point lead in that game simply running out of gas in the 2nd half due to the short line up. It looks like starter Kalambay (9 PPG) will return after missing last week with an illness and key bench player Edelen could be back as well. WKY is 11-2 at home this season with their only conference home loss coming vs Jax State who as we mentioned sits in 1st place. MTSU will be playing their 3rd straight road game and they are 3-3 away from home in CUSA play with their wins coming by 1, 2, and 4 points. They are coming off a road upset win @ Kennesaw State where they shot 50% from the field and still only won by a single point. Despite their 5-6 league record, Western Kentucky is still rated as the 3rd best team in CUSA behind only Jacksonville State and Liberty who are in 1st and 2nd place. The Toppers have played the strongest strength of schedule in the league and have 3 wins over teams ranked in the top 5 in CUSA including a win @ Liberty who is ranked #1 (per KenPom). They’ve only played 4 home games thus far in their 11 game conference slate. These teams met a month ago @ MTSU and the Blue Raiders won 71-57 with WKY shooting only 33% from the field and 20% from deep. It was by far their worst offensive output of the entire season and we like them to bounce back tonight at home where they are averaging 84 PPG. If this one is tight as the line suggests, FT’s could be a key and WKY hits 76% from the stripe in CUSA play while MTSU makes only 65%. We’ll lay this small number.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Tarleton State +5.5 over Seattle, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Huge quick revenger for Tarleton who just played @ Seattle 10 days ago and lost 91-54 as a 9 point dog. Seattle shot lights out in that game hitting 57% of their shots overall (they average 42%) and 60% of their triples hitting 15 of 25. Seattle scored a ridiculous 1.54 PPP which is WAY above their season WAC average of 1.04 PPP. The Texans strength is their defense so you can bet they’ll put some extra emphasis on that end of the court and won’t let that happen again. Tarleton hasn’t been great on the road but at home they’ve been very feisty winning 8 of 10 overall (average margin of +11 PPG) with just 1 home loss in WAC play on Thursday by just 4 points vs Grand Canyon, the highest rated team in the conference. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a poor road team. They have yet to win on the road in WAC play and just lost by 16 @ Abilene Christian on Thursday night now 48 hours later they are on the road again. Seattle is shooting just 39% away from home and losing by an average margin of -7 PPG so don’t expect them to make everything in sight as they did at home 10 days ago vs this TSU team. As a road favorite the Redhawks are now 0-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS their last 11 in that role. Tarleton, on the other hand, is 3-0 ATS as a home dog this season winning 2 of those games outright. TSU won both meetings last year before getting clobbered a few days ago and you can bet they’ll be more than ready for this rematch. We like Tarleton to win this game outright so we’ll take the points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -2.5 over St Louis, Friday at 7 PM ET - Loyola is 12-1 at home this season where they average 1.078 PPP compared to 0.972 on the road. Going back to last season they’ve won 19 of their last 20 home games. They’ve been outstanding defensively at home as well allowing 0.934 PPP on 40% shooting giving up only 64 PPG. Their only home loss came back in early January vs VCU who is by far the highest rated team in the A10 (per KenPom) currently sitting with a 20-5 record. The Ramblers have played 2 other top 5 A10 teams here at home and beat them both (St Joes and St Bonnies). St Louis began the conference season winning 5 of their first 6 games but they’ve been heading in the wrong direction for a few weeks now losing 4 of their last 6. They have not been a good team away from home with a 3-6 record both SU and ATS and 2 of their 3 wins came vs Fordham and Richmond, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. They average less than 1.00 PPP on the road (0.985) while allowing nearly 1.10 PPP. Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Billikens coughing it up over 20% of the time in A10 play (dead last) and they’ve turned it over more than 20% in 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight they face a Loyola defense that ranks in the top 100 nationally creating turnovers which should lead to some extra possessions for the Ramblers. We think STL continues their road struggles and Loyola gets the win and cover.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +5.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Ole Miss is in a rough spot here having just come from behind late to win @ LSU and they have a revenge match with arch rival Mississippi State on Saturday. The Rebels had to come from 11 down with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game as a 6 point chalk @ LSU to win by 2 points on a tip in at the buzzer. The final score of 72-70 was the only time that Mississippi led in the second half and that was vs an LSU team that is ranked lower than South Carolina per KenPom. Now the Rebs have to face a South Carolina team that is 0-10 SU in SEC play so don’t be surprised if they aren’t fully focused on this game. They better be because the Gamecocks, despite their record, have been very competitive at home vs the top teams in the SEC. They’ve faced the toughest home schedule in SEC play having already faced the 4 teams in 1st or 2nd place in the conference along with Mississippi State who is ranked 31st nationally per KenPom. The only non-competitive game in that stretch was vs Bama way back on January 8th Since then they lost to Auburn by 3, Texas A&M by 4, Florida by 1, and in OT vs Mississippi State. Just prior to the SEC conference slate the Gamecocks beat Clemson here at home and that’s a Tiger team that just beat Duke and UNC and sits in 2nd place in the ACC. This team is more than capable of pulling off this upset and it’s a perfect situational spot for them to do so. We’ll take the points.

#686 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -6 over Iowa, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - This Rutgers team can be handicapped really as 2 different teams. One with their star freshman Dylan Harper in the line up (he is projected as a top 5 NBA Draft Pick) and one with him out of the line up. He is back and at 100% and they are much better with him playing at full strength. He had a few games he attempted to play but wasn’t near 100% and only played 10 to 15 minutes. If we look only at games he played significant minutes and was healthy, in those games Rutgers is 4-4 in Big 10 play (5-8 overall Big 10 record) including home wins over Illinois and UCLA. Iowa, on the other hand, is on the other end of the health spectrum. They lost their top big man Freeman (17 PPG & 7 RPG) for the season a week ago and he’s missed the last 2 games (both losses). The Hawkeyes starting PG Thelwell also suffered an ankle injury vs Wisconsin and he didn’t practice this week so he’s very questionable for this game. We’re not sure how much energy Iowa will have left in the tank here. They just lost back to back home games vs Purdue and Wisconsin. They put a lot of energy and effort into that Wisconsin rematch after losing to their rival 116-85 in Madison earlier in the season. Now they go on the road after that disappointing home stand and they’ve been really bad on the road losing 4 of their 5 conference games away from home by double digits. Iowa’s strength is their offense and those numbers drop drastically on the road where they have a -17 PPG margin. Defensively they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and they allowed an average of 95 PPG on the road! This smells like another Iowa double digit road loss so we’ll lay it with Rutgers at one of the tougher home venues in the conference.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas +3 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Horns have back to back huge home games vs Bama & Kentucky as they sit near the NCAA bubble and need a few big wins down the stretch to make sure they get in. We like the value here and the situation for Texas. The Horns are 3-3 in their last 6 games and those losses were all fairly tight with margins of 3, 8, and 8 points. Of their 7 SEC losses, 5 have come by 8 points or less. They are facing a Bama team that has won 6 in a row and 9 of their 10 SEC games. The Tide seem to be a bit overvalued right now as they are laying -5 in this game @ Texas (opening number) and they were just +1.5 @ Mississippi State less than 2 weeks ago. That’s an MSU team that is ranked pretty much dead even with Texas in most metrics (KenPom, Haslam, etc…). We’re getting a 6.5 point swing from less than 2 weeks ago and the situation highly favors Texas with Bama facing arch rival Auburn (#1 and #2 in the AP Poll) coming up on Saturday. That game is already being discussed as one of the bigger games in the state of Alabama’s history. A lookahead spot for the Tide who haven’t been all that dominant on the road in SEC play. Since winning @ South Carolina (worst team in the SEC with 0-10 record) by 20 back in early January, Bama’s last 4 conference road wins have come by margins of 6, 5, 4, and 4 points. When facing the 2 highest rated teams in the SEC (per KenPom) at home this season, Auburn & Tennessee, the Longhorns took them to the wire losing by 5 and 4 points. This is a much more important game for Texas and we’re most likely into for another tight game. The Horns get one of the key players, Tramon Mark (10 PPG), back here after he missed Saturday’s loss @ Vandy. Take the points as we feel Texas has a decent shot at the upset here.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -1.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Wolverines have been waiting for this rematch since their embarrassing 91-64 loss @ Purdue on January 24th. Michigan’s other 4 losses this season came by margins of 1, 2, 2, and 3 points so their Purdue setback was by far their worst of the season. The Boilers shot 55% in that home game while averaging just under 1.30 PPP which is well above their season average of 1.18 PPP in Big 10 play. Michigan shot just 37% and averaged 0.90 PPP which is well below their full season average of 1.18 PPP. Purdue jumped out to a 32-11 lead just 10 minutes into the game and things snow balled from there. Now we get the Boilers on the road where their numbers drop off drastically. They are 5-0 on the road in Big 10 play, however those wins have come vs Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington, Iowa, and Oregon with the first 4 listed being the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference per KenPom and the Ducks are currently just 5-8 in league play. An easy road schedule to say the least. Even with that, the Boilermakers average just 71 PPG on the road (85 PPG at home) on 1.068 PPP compared to 1.217 at home. Michigan is undefeated at home this season (11-0 record) winning by an average of +20 PPG. The Wolverines are shooting 51% overall, 39% from 3, and averaging 1.162 PPP on their home court. A win here vaults them over Purdue into 1st place in the Big 10. The Wolves strength on offense is inside the arc with two very good 7 footers (Wolf & Goldin) where they rank 5th nationally in 2 point FG% at 60%. That happens to be Purdue’s defensive weakness ranking 285th in 2 point defense. Michigan defensively ranks in the top 40 in both 3 point and 2 point FG% while ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. We don’t see Purdue duplicating their red hot shooting in this rematch and we like Michigan to get the win and cover.

#847 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +3 over Villanova, Sunday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January with XU winning by 6 despite Nova shooting better from the field.  The Wildcats have not played well since mid January going 2-5 SU over their last 7 games.  They are just 2-2 at home since January 10th with losses to Georgetown and Creighton and their 2 wins were both by 2 points vs Providence and UConn.  There only 2 comfortable wins in Big East play were vs Seton Hall and DePaul, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the league.  During that same span, Xavier has kicked it into high gear and won 5 of their last 7 games.  Their only losses during that stretch came on the road in OT vs first place St John’s and @ Creighton who has now won 9 straight games.  The Musketeers also have an impressive win @ Marquette during this run.  Since January 10th, Xavier ranks as the 32nd best team in the nation and the 3rd best in the Big East behind only St Johns & Creighton (per Bart Torvik Analytics).  Nova ranks as the 7th best team in the conference during that stretch.  The Cats love to shoot the 3 and they do it well ranking #1 in the Big East in 3 point FG% and percentage of points from deep.  However, XU matches up perfectly defensively with this Villanova offense as they rank #1 in the Big East defending the arc allowing just 30%.  XU is no slouch from beyond the arc either hitting almost 39% on the year good for 17th nationally.  They outscored Villanova from deep in the first meeting (10 three’s made to 8) and if they do that again it will be very tough for the Wildcats to win this game as Nova relies so heavily in the triple and they do not get to the FT line (320th in percentage of points from the charity stripe).  This has been a tightly contested series with each of the last 6 meetings decided by 8 or fewer points with 4 of those coming by 4 points or less.  We expect a tight one in Philly on Sunday so we’ll grab the points with Xavier.

#774 ASA PLAY ON UMKC -3 over North Dakota, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UMKC has lost 8 straight games after winning their first 2 in Summit League play yet they are still a favorite of more than a possession here which should tell you something. Their last 7 losses have come by margins of 7, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6 and 6 points so they’ve been really close to breaking through. Five of those eight games were on the road and their 3 home games during that stretch were vs the top 3 teams in the Summit (South Dakota State, St Thomas, and North Dakota State). Those are the only 3 teams in the conference that rank inside the top 200 per KenPom and despite losing those 3 games, UMKC took them all to the wire losing by 1, 3, and 6 points. Now they finally get a shot at a low level conference team at home and we think the Roos will take care of business here. In their other 2 games vs lower level Summit opponents at home they won by 14 vs South Dakota and by 23 vs Oral Roberts. The get a North Dakota team that is 2-9 on the road this season losing by an average score of 82-73. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a road loss on Thursday @ Omaha in a game they shot 54% overall (their season average is 43%), 56% from beyond the arc (their season average is 32%), and 80% from the foul line (they average 71%) and still lost. Now they are facing a very solid UMKC defense that ranks 2nd in conference play in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. On the other end of the court, North Dakota is terrible defensively ranking 349th nationally in defensive efficiency, 362nd in eFG% allowed, and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. In the first meeting in mid January, North Dakota shot 47% (41% for UMKC) and made 6 more FT’s but won by just 4 points (game was tied with 1:00 minute remaining). We like UMKC to break their losing streak and pick up a win and cover on Saturday.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +4.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU is playing their best basketball of the season winning 4 in a row including 2 road games @ Iowa State and @ Arizona State. Going back even further, they’ve played above their efficiency expectations in 6 of their last 7 games (per Haslam Metrics). This is a very dangerous team right now and this is their biggest game of the year. They lost by 10 points @ Kansas and the Jayhawks shot 55% from the field in that win. We don’t expect that here from a KU team that already has 4 road losses while shooting just 43% overall and 30% from deep on the road this season. The Jayhawks actually have a losing record in true road games this season (3-4 SU) and their 3 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 per KenPom. KU has lost 5 of their last 7 games ATS while KSU has covered 7 in a row. There is a lot of talent on this KSU team with big time transfers McDaniel (from Michigan), Hawkins (from Illinois), and Hausen (from Villanova) and they are finally all starting to mesh as a team. The Cats are always sky high for their home game vs KU and they’ve won outright each of the last 2 seasons here as a dog. They are 7-3 ATS this year as a home dog and we think they have a decent shot to pull another home upset vs the Jayhawks. Take the points.

#794 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tonight OSU has a chance to avenge their worst loss of the Big 10 season which came @ Maryland back on December 4th.  The final score of that game was 83-59 with the Terps winning easily.  The Buckeyes other 5 losses in conference play have come by a total of 20 points or an average of just -4 PPG.  The Terps have been a poor road team this season with a 2-4 record with their 2 wins coming @ Indiana by 1 point on a last second 3 point shot and @ Illinois when the Illini were dealing with injuries and were also dealing with the flu at the same time.  Maryland ranks 353rd in Haslem Metrics away efficiency stat and defensively they allow 1.044 PPP on the road compared to 0.833 at home.  They already have Big 10 road losses @ Oregon, @ Northwestern, and @ Washington, who all currently have losing records in conference play and combine for an 11-22 SU Big 10 record.  The Buckeyes have won 3 of their last 4 games, including a win @ Purdue, and they sit squarely on the NCAA bubble.  They are in must win mode, especially at home, and they’ve won 4 straight at home vs the Terps.  We’ll lay the small number in this one.

#705 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +9.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Vols who played a huge revenge game on Saturday hosting Florida who beat them by 30 points earlier in the year. The Vols got their revenge rolling the Gators by 20 points holding Florida to 0.69 PPP and just 4 of 27 from beyond the arc. It was actually Tennessee’s 3rd huge game in a row after losing to Auburn and Kentucky prior to getting back on track Saturday. They played that game without PG Ziegler as he’s having knee issues. It looks like he’ll be back here but not 100%. Not much is being said about Missouri but the Tigers have been sneaky good this season. They are coming off a blowout 27 point road win @ Mississippi State and they also topped Florida on the road this year giving the Gators their only home loss. Not only is that Florida’s only home loss, they’ve dominated teams at home (besides Mizzou) winning every other game by at least 18 points. The Tigers are 17-4 on the season and they only team to beat them by double digits was #1 Auburn on the road a game Missouri lost by 16. In SEC play Mizzou has better PPP margins (per 100 possessions) and they are 5-2 ATS as a dog this season covering vs high level opponents including Auburn, Kansas, Florida, and Illinois. Too many points here in a game we expect will be close throughout.

#722 ASA PLAY ON Central Florida -2.5 over Cincinnati, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ll take another shot with UCF tonight. We were on them Saturday here at home vs BYU and they came up short losing by 6. BYU shot 11% better than UCF from the field and 13% better from beyond the arc in that game. It was tight throughout with each team’s largest lead being 7 points. Now we’re getting UCF with a similar spread at home (-3 open and -1.5 vs BYU) but the Cougars are much better than this Cincinnati team. We’re getting some solid value on the host here. As we mentioned in our analysis on Saturday, the Golden Knights have been playing well, just struggling to get over the hump. Their last 5 losses have all come vs top 30 teams and 3 of those were vs top 10 teams (per KenPom). And 4 of those losses came by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points. Their win during that stretch was a blowout 28 point win over TCU and their opponent tonight, Cincinnati, is much closer to TCU than the other teams UCF has been losing to. The Bearcats are struggling to say the least. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games with 5 of those 8 setbacks coming by double digits. They just lost by 13 at home vs a WVU team that had lost 5 of their previous 7 prior to Sunday’s win @ Cincy. The Bearkats now make a quick turnaround on the road after playing on Sunday while UCF is still at home and played a day earlier on Saturday. The Golden Knights have played the #1 strength of schedule in the Big 12 play (Cincy #8 SOS) and yet they have a better conference record (4-6 compared to 2-8 for the Bearcats) and they have better efficiency margins in league play. UCF finally gets to play a lower half Big 12 team (they’ve only played 1 since January 8th and rolled TCU) and we think they take advantage and pick up a home win and cover tonight.

#701 ASA PLAY ON Troy +1.5 over James Madison, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Troy is rated by KenPom as the 2nd best team in the Sun Belt at this point of the season behind only Arkansas State. The Trojans are 8-3 in the league and their 3 losses have come by a combined 8 points and they led by double digits on 2 of those setbacks. They’ve shown they can get it done on the road with a 3-1 record away from home in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming @ South Alabama by 1 point. JMU is on a nice 4 game winning streak but those opponents all sit near the bottom of the conference power rankings (ODU twice, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State). Versus upper tier teams in conference play the Dukes are just 2-4 SU with their 2 wins coming by 3 & 5 points. Troy has much better efficiency numbers in conference play outscoring opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions while JMU is outscoring their opponents by 1 point per 100 possessions. Troy has better conference PPP numbers both on offense and defense and they are 2nd in the league at creating turnovers. The Trojans also rank #1 in the Sun Belt in assists per FG made while the Dukes rank 14th. Troy is simply the better team and they have a winning road record on the season.

#666 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +3.5 over Boise St, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - UNLV is in must win mode at home after losing 4 straight games to go from 5-2 in MWC play to 5-6.  However, all of those games went to the wire with a 2 point loss vs Wyoming, 2 point loss vs New Mexico, 5 point loss @ Utah State and a 6 point loss @ Nevada.  In their loss @ Nevada on Saturday, the game was tied with just over 1:00 minute to go and the Wolfpack scored the final 6 points of the game.  Prior to their losing streak the Rebels beat San Diego State on the road and Utah State at home, 2 of the top 3 rated teams in the Mountain West per KenPom.  Versus the top 3 teams in the league (SDSU, New Mexico, and Utah State) the Rebels are 2-2 and their losses have come by 2 and 5 points.  This team has shown they can beat anyone in this conference and we like them to knock off Boise tonight.  The Broncos are 0-3 vs those top 3 teams and they haven’t been great on the road with a 2-4 record and their wins came by 2 points @ San Jose State and by 9 points @ Wyoming, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  They are ranked 358th out of 364 teams in road efficiency per Haslam Metrics and they have a negative point differential in their 9 games away from home (road and neutral).  UNLV is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this season and 7-0 ATS in that role since the start of last season.  We’ll call for the Rebels to get the much needed home win on Tuesday.

#601 ASA PLAY ON Marquette +3 over St Johns, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We like the Golden Eagles to bounce back after losing at home vs UConn on Saturday. The Huskies won that game 77-69 and looking at the stats it was amazing Marquette was even able to keep it that close. UConn shot 60% overall and 63% from 3 point range. Marquette shot 40% overall, 32% from deep, and missed 10 FT’s yet it was still a 6 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Marquette missed 7 shots in the last minute alone. Just one of those nights. They’ve done a great job of bouncing back off a loss as the Golden Eagles have only lost consecutive games twice since the start of the 2022 season, a span of 95 games. This year they’ve won each of their 3 games following a loss by double digits. St John’s is 19-3 overall and 10-1 in the Big East but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in conference play. They’ve won 8 straight games since losing to Creighton back on December 31st but none of those wins have come vs the top 4 teams in conference play. Their only game vs a top 4 team (per KenPom ratings) in league play this entire season was a loss to Creighton. Not only that, many of those wins at home were tight beating Providence by 2, Xavier in OT, Georgetown by 5, and Butler by 8. The Johnnies thrive on creating turnovers that lead to extra possessions but that will be tough here vs a Marquette team that is very strong at the guard position and ranks #1 nationally in offensive turnover percentage. St Johns opponents have turned the ball over at a 20%+ clip in 4 of their last 5 games and that won’t happen here. The Johnnies are a poor shooting team ranking 10th in the Big East in eFG% and dead last in 3 point FG% in league play at 24%. They also make less than 70% of their FT’s. Marquette’s defense is off a poor showing but for the season they are very high level (16th nationally in efficiency) so they match up well with St John’s. The Golden Eagles have won 6 straight in this series and we expect a close game here so we’ll take the points.

#808 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -5 over Washington State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Nice revenge spot here for USF after losing by 11 @ Washington State in early January. The Cougs shot 49% (USF shot 42%) and hit 37% of their triples (USF shot 30%). The thing that stood out most from that box score was Washington State attempted and made 18 more FT’s than San Fran and still only won by 11. That doesn’t match up with the season long stats of these 2 teams as USF actually attempts 21 FT’s per game while Wazzu attempts just 19. We expect those numbers to even out or even push to the Dons favor at home tonight. SF is a perfect 13-0 at home this season winning by an average score of 80-64. They’ve won 11 of those 13 home games by more than tonight’s spread which is currently -5. WSU is on a tough stretch right now playing some of their worst basketball of the season falling short of their expected efficiency numbers in 5 of their last 7 games. Since January 4th the Cougars have a 2-5 record with their only wins during that stretch coming vs San Diego and Portland, 2 of the 3 lowest teams in the WCC. The other team in that trio of lowest rated teams, Pacific, beat Wazzu twice during that stretch including on Thursday night. Now the Cougars have to travel again (their 3rd road game in the last 4) and play a very good team on the road just 48 hours after losing @ Pacific. They haven’t been a very good road team with a 3-4 record and Haslem Metrics has WSU ranked 306th on the road in their home vs road metric. USF ranks 28th in that same metric at home. We like San Fran to win and cover this game at home staying perfect on their home court.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Appalachian State -11 over Georgia State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We expect a huge bounce back from a App State team that just lost at home on Wednesday night as a double digit favorite. In that 1-point loss vs Old Dominion, the Monarchs shot 49% overall and 43% from deep, well above their season averages of 40% and 28% respectively. And that was vs a very good defensive team in App State who 18th nationally in eFG% allowed and 8th nationally in 3 point FG% allowed. ODU was the first team in Sun Belt play to top 70 points vs the Mountaineers. Just an aberration in our opinion and we can expect App State to be very focused here, especially on the defensive end. Not only do we catch ASU in a good spot, we are getting Georgia State in a great fade situation after they pulled off an upset @ Marshall on Thursday night as a double digit dog. Similar to ODU vs App State, the Panthers shot WAY above their averages vs Marshall in that Thursday night win. Georgia State hit a ridiculous 62% of their shots and 50% of their triples. They average 43% and 32% on the season. Prior to that upset win, GSU was 0-7 on the road this season with 6 of those losses coming by at least 14 points. In their other road games vs top 5 teams in the Sun Belt (per KenPom) the Panthers lost @ Troy by 20 and @ Arkansas State by 26. App State ranks as the 3rd best team in the conference so similar competition to Troy and Arkansas State. Huge defensive edge for App State here as they rank 63rd nationally in defensive efficiency while Ga State ranks 323rd. The Panthers also rank dead last in the Sun Belt in eFG% defense and are getting outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions in league play (ASU is outscoring their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions). The Mountaineers have an extra day to prepare for this one after playing on Wednesday compared to Ga State on Thursday and we like the host to win big here.

#726 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara +4.5 over St Mary’s, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - St Mary’s is officially overvalued after winning 8 straight games. They are in a difficult situational spot after playing @ Washington State on Saturday and now on the road again tonight. Not only that, but it’s also the Gaels 4th road game in their last 5 games and they have their biggest home game of the year on Saturday hosting Gonzaga. They are 8-0 in WCC play but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in the conference and have not played any of the top 4 rated teams in the league (per KenPom) until tonight. STM’s road wins in conference play prior to beating Wazzou on Saturday came @ Portland, @ San Diego, and @ Pepperdine, 3 of the 4 worst teams in the WCC. Their 80-75 win over Washington State on Saturday was impressive but the Gaels also needed to overcome a double digit 2nd half deficit. In that tight win, St Mary’s shot 57% overall, 41% from 3 and 93% from the FT line, way above their season averages of 46%, 34%, and 70% respectively yet still needed a solid comeback late to win that game. Santa Clara is 6-3 in WCC play but they’ve faced the much more difficult schedule already facing San Francisco twice, Oregon State twice, Washington State, and Gonzaga. That 6 games vs the top 6 teams in the league while St Mary’s has played 2 such games (vs Wash St and San Francisco). The Broncos are coming off a loss @ Oregon State on Saturday but back home where they are 4-0 vs WCC opponents this season including a 28 point win over Washington State and a 23 point win over San Francisco. And let’s not forget Santa Clara’s road win @ Gonzaga just a week and half ago. The Broncos are the better shooting team (FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%) and this is their biggest game of the season at home. St Mary’s has been coasting vs mainly lower tier competition and this will be their toughest game since losing at home vs Utah State on Dec 22. With the Zags on deck for St Mary’s we see a letdown spot and Santa Clara pulling the upset.

#732 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -6 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for the Rebels.  They are coming off 3 straight losses and they catch Texas off a 22 point come from behind home win over rival Texas A&M.  The 3 straight losses for Ole Miss, who had won 9 of their previous 10 prior, came @ Mississippi State in OT, at home by 1 point vs A&M in a game the Rebs led by double digits in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with under 25 seconds remaining, and then @ Missouri on Saturday by 8.  In their loss @ Mizzou, the Tigers made 11 threes in that game (6 for Ole Miss) and made 28 FT’s to 13 for the Rebels.  That means from the 3 point line + free throws, Missouri had a +30 point advantage and still only won by 8 points at home.  This is one of the top teams in the SEC and extra hungry for a home win (9-1 at home) after 3 straight setbacks.  Texas comes in and might be physically and emotionally spent after their win over A&M on Saturday.  They trailed 51-29 with 17 minutes remaining in the game and expended a massive amount of energy to get back in the game and win on a shot with only a few seconds remaining.  They made 11 more FT’s than the Aggies and still needed late heroics to win that game.  Texas played that game without 2 of their top 6 rotation guys, which was impressive, but made that comeback even more draining on this game.  Arthur Kaluma (14 PPG & 8 RPG) and Chendall Weaver (7 PPG & 5 RPG) were both out of the line up on Saturday and it looks like Weaver definitely won’t play here and Kaluma is questionable at best.  The Horns have played 3 conference road games beating Oklahoma on the road by 4 and getting blown out by 20+ points @ Florida and @ A&M.  Ole Miss has played the tougher strength of schedule this season and they have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively.  Their defense ranks 10th nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers at the 6th highest rate in college basketball.  You think Ole Miss coach Chris Beard wants this one a little more than any other game they’ve played?  He was canned by Texas after the 2021/22 season.  He led the Horns to a 22-12 record that season including a win in the NCAA tourney but was fired because of a domestic abuse charge.  The spot doesn’t get much better for Ole Miss and we’ll lay it.

#620 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -7.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has lost 4 straight games with 3 of those losses coming vs teams rated in the top 6 nationally per KenPom.  3 of those 4 games were on the road and their lone home game was a 2 point loss vs Auburn, the #1 team in the country.  That was UGA’s only home loss of the season.  Their most recent loss on Saturday @ Florida was an embarrassing effort and by far their worst loss of the season (89-59 final) giving the Bulldogs some extra incentive for this one.  After that rough stretch of opponents, the Bulldogs are happy to be back home and facing the lowest rated team in the conference, South Carolina who sits with an 0-7 record in the SEC.  The Gamecocks have been fairly competitive at home but on the road they’ve lost 2 of their 3 games by 20+ points.  They are in a really rough situational spot here coming off 2 down to the wire SEC home losses including an OT setback vs Mississippi State on Saturday.  After expending lots of energy (both physical and emotional) in those 2 home games only to come up short in both, we wouldn’t be surprised if SC doesn’t have much left in the tank for this one.  The Gamecocks offense has been really poor in SEC play averaging just 61 PPG and ranking dead last in offensive efficiency.  Facing a UGA defense that ranks 20th nationally in defensive efficiency won’t be much help for this offense.  SC also turns the ball over more than any other team in the conference (24% turnover rate).  Georgia’s 2 home wins in the SEC have come vs Kentucky and Oklahoma, both much better teams than South Carolina, and the Dogs beat both those teams by double digits.  Georgia is a good team in desperation mode and we look for another double digit home win on Tuesday.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Needless to say IU is in a must win spot here at home. Following this game the Hoosiers go on a stretch that includes Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, and UCLA in their next 5 games. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and we’re catching some value with them because of that. They should also have some added incentive as their last home game was a 94-69 loss vs Illinois. An embarrassing effort and now they get a chance to redeem themselves in front of their home crowd. After that loss, the Hoosiers did travel to Ohio State and pick up a win as a dog and then lost @ Northwestern on Wednesday in a game they led at half but allowed the Cats to roll up 54 points in the 2nd half. Head coach Mike Woodson has stressed that defensive collapse this week and we look for a solid effort on that end of the court from the Hoosiers. IU got NBA prospect Reneau (13 PPG & 6 RPG) back in the line up @ Northwestern after missing 5 straight games. He was a bit rusty but now with a game under his belt we expect him to be more involved on Sunday. The Hoosiers are catching Maryland off a huge upset @ Illinois on Thursday (IU with an extra day having played on Wednesday) and now on the road again a few days later. In that blowout win @ Illinois one of the Illini’s top players, big man Ivisic (13 PPG & 8.5 RPG) was announced out just prior to game time with an illness. The Illini didn’t respond well and Maryland ran them off the court hitting 50% of their shots for the game. That sets this one up nicely situation wise along with pushing this number higher than it should be in our opinion. Prior to that win, the Terps were 0-4 in true road games this year including losing 2 of those games as a favorite (@ Washington and @ NW). Despite their loss most recent home loss vs Illinois, the Hoosiers are still 11-1 SU at home this season. This one is tight in our opinion so we’ll take the points with the home team.

#796 ASA PLAY ON California -9 over Miami FL, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We were on Stanford over Miami on Wednesday night and picked up an easy win with the Cardinal winning 88-51.  As we stated on Wednesday, it looks like the Canes have already packed it in for the season.  They have now lost 14 of their last 15 games and since their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December, they haven’t won a game (0-7 SU).  Miami’s last 3 losses have come by margins of 35, 43, and 37 points and their only single digit loss since January 1st was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  They are not only losing, they aren’t even coming close to covering on many nights and their season spread record is now 3-16 ATS.  They face a Cal team that has some solid momentum after back to back wins including topping a solid Florida State team by 9 points on Wednesday.  Not only did they win that game (as a dog), they did so with their leading scorer, Stojakovic (19 PPG), out due to illness.  It looks like he’ll be back here and the Bears should be at full strength.  Cal’s offense has been very efficient this season (top 75 in offensive efficiency) and they are averaging 80 PPG at home.  That should continue tonight facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 343rd in scoring defense allowing 80 PPG.  The Canes are only averaging 64 PPG on the road and they’ve been held to 54 or less in their last 2 road games.  Looks like blowout potential here with Cal.  We’ll lay it.

#790 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Xavier has been playing really well as they try to get themselves back into NCAA tourney consideration (12-8 overall record). They have won 3 of their last 4 games, including upsetting Marquette on the road. Their 1 loss during that stretch was in OT on Wednesday @ St Johns, who is in first place in the Big East with an 8-1 record, and XU held a 16 point 2nd half lead in that game. The Musketeers led that game by 10 at half and St Johns led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half before the game went to OT. Xavier ranks 91st nationally in Haslam’s Momentum metric since January 1st while UConn ranks 305th. The Huskies simply aren’t playing well right now. They are 6-2 in Big East play but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the conference (9th SOS out of 11 – Xavier has played the #1 SOS in Big East play) yet only 1 of their wins has come by more than 8 points. Their last 2 games were both at home where they lost to Creighton and squeaked by Butler 80-78 in OT. UConn’s defense has not been good this year (ranked 132nd in efficiency) and their 3 point defense has been really poor, ranking 341st in the country. That’s not a good match up for this Xavier team that hits over 38% of their triples which is good for 23rd best in the nation. These 2 met already this season in December and XU took the Huskies to OT on the road before losing 94-89. The Musketeers took Connecticut to the wire on the road in that game despite missing leading scorer & rebounder Zack Freemantle (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and he is back in the line up and has been playing very well. We expect XU to have a solid edge from the 3 point line again as they make almost 42% of their triples. We also look for them to have a plus margin at the FT line as UConn fouls a lot (opponents scoring 25% of their points from the FT line in Big East play which is dead last for the Huskies defense) and XU makes 78% of their freebies. This revenger sets up nicely and we’ll lay this small number.

#762 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -3 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - La Tech is 3-4 in CUSA play and MTSU is in 1st place at 5-1 yet the Bulldogs are a 3 point favorite in this game. Read the market as they say which is telling us La Tech is the right side here and we agree. While LT hasn’t won a conference road game yet, they are a perfect 3-0 at home in CUSA play and they’ve already topped the 1st (Liberty) and 4th (Western Kentucky) rated teams in the league (per KenPom) by 5 and 10 points respectively here in Ruston. Sandwiched in between those 2 impressive wins were 2 points losses @ Jacksonville State and @ Kennesaw State, who both sit tied for 2nd place in the conference. As we mentioned MTSU is in 1st place in the league and they are 2-1 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins came vs FIU, by far the lowest rated team in the conference, and vs Sam Houston State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the conference. Their win over SHSU was on Thursday night and it was down to the wire with the Blue Raiders winning 77-75. In that game SHSU missed a layup as time expired which would have sent the game to OT. Middle Tennessee shot a 47% in that win (43% for Sam Houston) and they made 12 of 26 triples for 46% which was well above their season average of 32% (219th in 3 point FG%). Even with that, this one came to the wire vs a lower tier CUSA team. That won’t happen again in this game as La Tech ranks 25th nationally defending the arc allowing just 29%. The Bulldogs are much better than their 3-4 conference record (La Tech is rated 3rd best team in the league per KenPom) and they are in a must win spot at home if they want to have a chance to move up toward the top of the CUSA standings. Tech also has some extra incentive here as they finished 22-10 last year but were surprisingly knocked out of the Conference USA tourney by this MTSU team who finished 14-19 last season. Let’s lay it with the home team.

#648 ASA PLAY ON George Washington +1 over St Louis, Saturday at 2 PM ET - GW in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses. 2 of those were road losses, including an OT setback vs George Mason who is 6-1 in the A10, and then a home loss to a red hot Duquesne team. The Revolutionaries were 9-0 at home prior to their Duquesne setback and we look for them to get back on track here. St Louis steps in having won 3 in a row but this team has not been impressive on the road this season. The Billikens were 0-3 SU on the road entering conference play and they have won 2 A10 road games but those game @ Fordham and @ Richmond, the 2 worst teams ni the conference who have a combined league record of 2-10. The one good team the played on the road in A10 play was @ VCU and St Louis lost that game by 16 points. They Billikens rank 247th in Haslam Metrics home vs road category while GW ranks 69th at home in that metric. St Louis relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (40th nationally in percentage of points from deep) but they are running into a very good 3 point defense here as the Revolutionaries rank 30th nationally allowing opponents to make only 29% from beyond the arc. GW should also get a number of extra possessions creating turnovers ranking in the top 70 in the country creating giveaways on 19% of opponents possessions while STL turns it over a lot (247th in offensive turnover percentage). George Washington is a bit weak on the boards but that shouldn’t hinder them in this game as the Billikens are as well ranking 327th in offensive rebounding percentage. St Louis has two huge home games on deck next week vs VCU and Dayton (the 2 highest rated teams in the conference) so they might be peaking ahead to those games. They are also playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 games and we think they get beat here. We’ll take George Washington at home.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -2.5 over Penn State, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re catching Iowa at the bottom of the market here as they are coming off 3 straight losses including a setback vs Minnesota on Tuesday night. Because of that we’re getting the Hawkeyes at a cheap price at home tonight in a must win game. They lost @ USC and @ UCLA, which wasn’t surprising, leading into their poor performance vs the Gophers. In their 72-67 loss vs Minnesota, the Hawks made only 3 of 21 triples (14%) and averaged just 1.00 PPP. Those numbers were WAY down from their season averages of 38.7% from 3 which is 15th best nationally and 1.19 PPP which is 19th best nationally. We expect a bounce back from a team that is 10-2 at home (only other loss was vs #3 Iowa State) as they have been very solid at home shooting 53% from the field, 40% from deep, while averaging 91 PPG. They are facing a PSU team coming off a home win over Rutgers earlier this week, but the Nittany Lions are 0-3 SU on the road in Big 10 play and just 2-11 SU on the road in conference play since the start of last season. In their road games, Penn State’s numbers have dropped off drastically scoring 14 fewer points while shooting a lower percentage overall and from 3 point range. The Nits will also be without a key player, starter Puff Johnson (10 PPG and 5 RPG) who won’t play in this one due to an injury. Iowa was favored by 9 here last year and now we’re getting them at just -3. Take the Hawkeyes to win and cover at home.

#781 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina A&T +12.5 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - North Carolina A&T is 0-7 SU on CAA play which is why this number is set higher than it should be according to our power ratings. Despite their losses, they’ve been competitive in conference play with all of their losses coming by 11 points or less. Towson, on the other hand, is 10-9 on the season but they do not have a single win the entire season by more than 11 points (vs D1 opponents) and their lone 11 point win came in OT. Their average margin in CAA play this season is +3.8 points. The Tigers have been favored by double digits just twice this season and failed to cover both games winning each by just 4 points. Both of those teams, Morgan State & Stony Brook, are rated lower than this A&T team per KenPom. Towson is a poor offensive team averaging just 66 PPG while ranking 350th in FG% and 327th in 3 point FG%. Tough to cover big numbers when you’re a poor shooting team that struggles to score points. NC A&T is by no means a great team but they do a few things well that should keep them close here including not turning the ball over (5th nationally in offensive turnover rate). When comparing the Aggies to Towson, they shoot a better overall percentage, a higher 3 point FG% and FT%. They average 74 PPG on the season and have scored at least 63 in all but 2 games. If A&T gets to that number here, that should be enough to cover this lofty number. Towson has won 4 straight games (overvalued) and they have a rematch with Northeastern on deck. Don’t be surprised if they overlook this winless conference team that we think will give them a battle. Take the points.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Stanford -10 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - It looks like Miami may have thrown in the towel.  The Canes have lost 13 of their last 14 games and just lost 117-74 at HOME vs SMU.  Their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December and since he left the team they’ve lost 6 in a row with 5 of those losses coming by double digits.  Their only non 10 point plus loss during that stretch was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  Not only are they not winning, they aren’t covering with a spread record of 3-15 ATS on the season which is the 2nd worst mark in college basketball.  They continue to play without their leading scorer Nijel Pack who has missed the last 8 games due to an injury.  This is a tough spot for a struggling team making the long travel west for the first time this year and playing a game at 11 PM ET.  Stanford has some really solid momentum coming off a win @ North Carolina on Saturday.  The Cardinal have won 3 of their last 4 games and they have a 4-3 record in ACC play despite playing only 2 home conference games thus far, both double digit wins.  They are 9-1 overall at home with 7 of those wins coming by 10+ points.  Stanford is facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 338th in scoring defense allowing 79 PPG.  The Cardinal average 80 PPG at home and should top that number facing by far the worst defense they’ve seen in ACC play.  Miami goes down big again.

#717 ASA PLAY ON Murray State Pick'em over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for Murray State (rated the 4th best team in the MVC) coming off back to back losses.  They lost @ UIC in 2 OT’s and then ran into a red hot Bradley team, who currently has a 16-3 record, in a home loss on Saturday.  In that loss on Saturday vs Bradley, the Braves shot 53% overall, 39% from deep, and made 89% of their FT’s   The Racers have been very good on the road this season already topping both Drake and Northern Iowa (ranked #1 and #3 in the Missouri Valley).  Metrically (Haslam Metrics) has Murray State rated as the 20th best road team in the nation.  They average more PPG, shoot a higher FG%, and a higher 3 point FG% on the road this year when compared to their home stats.  They are taking on a Southern Illinois team that has won 3 straight but 2 of those wins came vs Missouri State who sits at 0-9 in conference play and one of those wins was in OT.  SIU already has 3 home losses this season including 2 in MVC play.  The Salukis have played the easier conference slate (only faced 1 of the top 4 teams thus far) yet Murray State (faced each of the top 3 teams) has better league efficiency numbers on both ends of the court.  The Racers also get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points from the stripe #1 in the MVC) and SIU does not (14% of their points from the FT line – last in the league).  When the Salukis do rarely get to the line, they only make 62% in league play (Murray State makes 73%).  We like the better team in a bounce back spot to win this game on the road.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas -2 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Longhorns are in desperate need of a conference win as they sit at 1-4 in SEC play. They’ve had a really rough schedule to start the season already having faced Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M, 4 of the top 5 rated teams in the league. In their home games vs Auburn (#2 nationally per KenPom) and Tennessee (#6 nationally per KenPom) the Horns were extremely competitive losing by 5 & 4 points respectively. Missouri, on the other hand, sits at 4-1 in league play but they’ve already faced the 3 lowest rated teams in the SEC (Vandy, LSU and Arkansas). They do have an impressive conference win over Florida by 1 point but they were also rolled by 16 points vs Auburn. While we feel Texas is undervalued right now, we also feel that Mizzou is overvalued coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak with 3 of those coming at home. The Tigers have only played 3 true road games this season (1-2 record) and they’ve played all but 3 games this year (out of 18 games) in the state of Missouri. Going back to the start of last season, the Tigers are just 1-11 SU on the road in SEC games and their one win came by a single point. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but they are facing a Texas offense that only turns it over 14% of the time (14th nationally) so that edge should be nullified in this game. The Tigers have also been shooting lights out in SEC play (41% from 3) which isn’t sustainable while Texas (ranked 28th in 3point FG% on the season) has made only 29% in conference play so almost a full 10% points below their season average. We expect both to regress toward their averages which would benefit Texas at home in this one. Very small spread here for the host and we’ll grab the Longhorns.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +4 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on Duquesne (+1.5) on Saturday over St Bonnies and picked up an easy 18 point outright win with the Dukes. This team continues to be undervalued because their overall record is just 9-9. However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 7-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6. The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early. Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 25th overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics well ahead of the 2nd best team during that stretch which is VCU (53rd). During that stretch they rank 31st nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight Dayton ranks as the 161st best team since December 11th with a 4-4 record during that stretch. Even more recently, since January 1st the Flyers are 1-3 and rank 251st nationally. This team is simply not playing well. Their lone win this month came at home on Saturday vs Loyola Chicago and that game went to OT before Dayton won by 2 points on a half court alley oop play at the buzzer. The Flyers made 12 more FT’s in that game (Loyola only made 9 FT’s and Dayton 21) and it still took OT at home to get a win. Dayton has now lost 7 straight games vs the spread but they continue to be overvalued as a road favorite here vs a team that is simply playing much better than they are right now. Our power rating has Duquesne as a favorite here so we’ll grab the value on the home team.

#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 12 PM ET - The Huskers are in a slump right now losing 3 straight games and their defense during that stretch has been atrocious. They have allowed 97, 104, and 85 points their last 3 games vs Iowa, Purdue, and Rutgers. They’ve been a very poor road team over the years (including this season) but the red flag for this team was losing at home vs Rutgers earlier this week. That broke a 20 game home winning streak vs a Rutgers team that had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and were winless in true road games prior to topping the Huskers. On the road Nebraska has played 3 games in league play and lost by 37, 36, and 10 points and they are just 5-18 SU in Big 10 road games over the last 2+ seasons. This season they average 12 PPG fewer on the road and they shoot 5% lower from 3 point land (just 30% in road games). Maryland is undefeated at home in conference play and their lone home loss was by 4 points vs Marquette back in mid November. The Terps have much better efficiency numbers in conference play as they rank in the top 8 both offensively and defensively while Nebraska ranks 15th and 16th in Big 10 play in those metrics. The Huskers are 1-5 SU @ Maryland and their last 2 losses have come by 22 and 19 points. Win and cover here for the Terps.

#818 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Oregon State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Great spot to fade Oregon State here after they pulled a huge home upset in OT over Gonzaga just 48 hours ago. The Beavers shot nearly 60% from the field in that game (Zags shot 42%) yet the game still went to OT. Now they have a quick turnaround on the road where they are 1-3 SU in true road games this season and 3-34 SU their last 37! They face a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 28 home games (8-0 this year) and we’re getting a cheap number here with the Dons. This is Oregon State’s first trip ever to play @ San Francisco which makes it a tough spot as well. The Beavers overall offensive numbers have been very good as they average 1.15 PPP but in their 4 true road games + 3 neutral site games, they’ve been held to 1.03 PPP or lower in 5 of those games. We think they’ll struggle offensive on the road again vs a San Fran defense that allows opponents to shoot just 40% overall and 27% from deep at home while holding opponents to 64 PPG. The Dons average 81 PPG at home this season and we think OSU struggles to keep up here. Lay the small number with San Francisco at home.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky.  The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night.  A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG).  Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team.  With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams.  They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits.  A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season.  LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5.  The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12.  LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points.  Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC.  Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom).  The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.  That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding.  The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight.  A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win.  We look for the Aggies to win this one going away.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9.  However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6.  The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early.  Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics.  During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency.  Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall.  The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days.  They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer.  The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3.  St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here.  Take the points.

#886 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -7 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Buckeyes showed some serious fight on Tuesday night getting down by 17 points at half @ Wisconsin and coming back in the 2nd half to only lose by 2. That’s back to back 2 point losses for OSU (Wisconsin & Oregon) and we like them to bounce back with a big effort at home tonight. They are facing an Indiana team that has played only 2 true road games this season, both in conference play, and they lost those games by 25 @ Iowa and by 17 @ Nebraska. IU is just 3-8 SU on the road in Big 10 play since the start of last season and offensively they scored just 62 and 68 points in their 2 road games this season. The Hoosiers are coming off an embarrassing 94-69 loss at HOME on Tuesday vs Illinois in a game they were dominated from start to finish. They are struggling on offense (60 and 69 points their last 2 games) with leading scorer Reneau about to miss his 5th straight game. We think they’ll struggle on that end of the court again tonight vs a OSU defense that ranks in the top 30 on both efficiency and eFG% allowed. At home the Buckeyes are limiting opponents to just 66 PPG and they just held a potent Wisconsin offense (13th nationally in efficiency) to 70 points on the road which is 14 points below their season average. OSU is better on both ends of the court (offensive and defensive efficiency) and if they can get their offense going at home, where they average 86 PPG, Indiana will be in trouble in our opinion. Lay it with Ohio State.

#836 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +1.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern lost their first home game of the season on Sunday vs a red hot Michigan State team and we expect them to bounce back with a win in this game. MSU shot 50% overall and from 3 point land in that 10 point win while the Cats shot just 36% and only 20% from deep. In that game, NW was a 2-point dog and now we’re getting them in the same range vs a Maryland team that simply isn’t as good as MSU right now and they’ve been poor on the road this season. That loss dropped the Wildcats to 8-1 at home this season and let’s not forget this team beat Illinois here earlier this season. The Terps have played only 3 true road games this season and lost all 3 @ Purdue, @ Washington, and @ Oregon. They’ve played one of the easier strength of schedules in the Big 10 (214th SOS) and vs top 100 teams Maryland has a 3-4 SU record. Northwestern has won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Maryland and the 1 they lost here was in OT. Since the start of last season, NW has been a home dog 5 times and covered 4 of those games. Last year they were favored by 4.5 at home vs Maryland and now a dog so we like the value here. Take the Cats to win outright at home tonight