Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Clippers really struggled offensively in Game 4 at home without Kawhi Leonard and it’s not going to get any better tonight. Even with Russell Westbrook pouring in 37-points the Clippers as a team managed just 100. The average field goal attempts in an NBA game this season was 176 and these two teams have attempted 176 or less in all four games. In the regular season the Suns were the 9th slowest paced team in the league at 98.2 possessions per game. The Clippers were the 7th slowest at 97.9. Thus far in the Playoffs these two teams are averaging 96.3 possessions per game which ranks 12th and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. The Suns get a lot of attention for their offense but in reality it’s their defense that deserves the credit. They rank 6th in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 11th in 3PT% D. The Clippers weren’t on that level but still allowed just 113.1PPG which was 12th best in the NBA. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points but Leonard had 69 of those points. Without him here this game doesn’t get to 224. |
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04-24-23 | Bucks -5.5 v. Heat | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami. |
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04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think. |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points. |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -115 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We love the situation here to back the home team Knickerbockers minus the short number. After winning Game 1 of this series, the Knicks lost badly in Game 2 by 17-points. In Game 1 most numbers were pretty even for both teams, but the Knicks enjoyed a +13 rebound night which was the difference. Game 2 saw the Cavs out-board the Knicks by 7 but the big separator was shooting as the Cavs hit 49% overall and 42% from beyond the arc. New York shot just 37% overall and 24% from Downtown. The Knicks will get great support at home tonight where they were 23-18 SU on the season with a +/- of +4.3PPG on the year. Cleveland was 20-21 SU away from home with an average margin of victory of +2.6PPG. If we look at the season series the Knicks won 3 straight after a loss way back in October. Two of those wins were by double-digits. The Cavs were just 4-9 ATS as a dog of less than +4.5 points, while the Knicks were 11-9 ATS as a favorite of -4.5-points or less. New York has won 10 of their last twelve at home and we expect them to win this game by a comfortable margin. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team! |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix. |
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04-17-23 | Warriors +1 v. Kings | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors. |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points! |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls +6 v. Heat | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 226.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s start with the average NBA total points scored in a game this regular season which was 228.6 points per game. We don’t see this game being ‘average’ based on several factors. We will start with the Hawks defense that is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.164-points per possession. That is the second worst of all the playoff teams (Kings are 25th). Since the All-Star break the Hawks have given up 121.7PPG. They rank 26th in PPG allowed, 25th in opponents FG%, but are 10th in 3PT%. The Hawks are also 19th in defensive rebounding. The Hawks beat teams by out-scoring them. Atlanta was 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.167PPP and were the 9th fastest paced team in the league. Since the break they have averaged 123.7PPG. Miami has gone through their struggles offensively this season, but they are clearly trending up to end the season. Prior to the All-Star break they were the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 108.3PPG. Since the break that average has jumped to 112.4PPG. In their last five games the Heat have the 1.251PPP which is the second highest average in the league behind the Warriors. Miami is known for their defense, but they haven’t been as good on that end of the court this season as they’ve been in past years. Case in point, last season the Heat were 5th in defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091PPP. This season the Heat are allowing 1.135PPP. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight. |
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04-09-23 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-113 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels. |
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 230 | Top | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 230 Portland Trailblazers @ LA Clippers, 4 PM ET - Both teams have games again tomorrow so it’s highly unlikely they are going to let this game turn into a fast-paced game. Especially the Clippers who still have seed positioning to play for AND need to manage minutes for older players such as Kawhi. This line is clearly too high as the Blazers just faced a Spurs team that is one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and one of the worst defensively and that total was 227. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the league and are around average in defensive efficiency. Portland has 14 players on their injury report as of today and are basically trotting out a G-league team. The Blazers offense has been hit hardest as they’ve scored 96 or less points in 3 of their last eight games and outside of one high scoring game against the Spurs, have averaged 101PPG in 7 of their last 8. With the Clippers content to get a win without exerting themselves we can’t see this game getting into the 230’s. |
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04-07-23 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - This is going to be a glorified AAU game and we don’t expect either team to play any defense in this one. The Rockets have given up 120 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and 130+ in three of those. Charlotte has been equally as bad allowing 120 or more in 4 straight games and an average of 126PPG in those four games. Houston ranks 28th in points allowed per game at 118.8, 22nd in opponents FG% and 28th in 3PT% defense. Charlotte ranks 22nd in PPG allowed at 117.5 per game, 19th in FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. The most critical defensive metric though is defensive efficiency as the Rockets are 29th in the NBA allowing 1.197PPP, while the Hornets are 20th at 1.158PPP. Charlotte has been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA all season long and the Rockets have picked up their tempo in their last five games. With nothing left to play for these two teams won’t expend any energy on the defensive end of the court and it will lead to a high scoring game. |
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04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - This game has a playoff feel as both teams could use a win here as they jockey for a better playoff position. Miami needs a win to lock in a spot in the postseason party and avoid a play-in situation. With a win the other night over Boston the Sixers still have a shot at catching the Celtics as the 2nd seed. It starts with defense for both teams as they rank 8th and 9th in defensive efficiency ratings. Both teams play slow too, with Miami ranking as the 2nd slowest team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, the Sixers are the 4th slowest. Philly is one of the most efficient offenses in the league but Miami is 25th. A big reason why the 76ers rank so high in OEFF is Joel Embiid. Embiid has struggled against the Heat averaging just 21.3PPG in the last six meetings which is well below his season average of 33.2PPG. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they’ve produced 215 and 200 total points. We expect another Under here. |
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04-05-23 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game. |
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04-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 234 | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 8:40 PM ET - You will want to watch the pregame injury report and confirm Nikola Jokic is in the lineup for the Nuggets before making this wager. The Warriors are going to play small ball here and use Draymond Green at the Center position. That means they are planning a fast-paced game and will push tempo. Golden State is the fastest paced team in the league at 101.7 possessions per game. They are 3rd in scoring at 118.3PPG. They should score at will against this Nuggets defense that is barely above average in defensive efficiency and rank 20th in opponents FG% against. Denver doesn’t play fast but they are highly efficient offensive with the 3rd best OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.180PPP. Golden State has historically been a great defensive team but that hasn’t been the case this season as they check in as the 19th worst defensive efficiency team allowing 1.149PPP. The Nuggets will put up points with their 10th scoring offense and the #1 ranked FG% unit at 50.6% and 2nd ranked 3PT% offense at 38.4%. In the two clashes between these two teams this season they have produced total points of 251 twice. We expect another high scoring game today. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points. |
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04-01-23 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:30PM ET - These two teams just met last Tuesday in L.A. with the game finishing with 241 total points. The O/U number on the game was 225 so we are getting a little extra value here. There were a few anomalies in that game as the Pelicans shot extremely well at 53% overall and they made 21 of 34 3-pointers or 62%. Those percentages were well above their season averages of 48% FG% and 36.3% 3PT%. The Clippers also had an above average shooting night at 52% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Again, both of those numbers are well above the Clippers 47.6% FG% and 38.2% 3PT%. The Clippers are about average in defensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession allowed while the Pelicans are 5th best. In their most recent 5-games the Pels have the best PPP allowed at 1.019PPP. Prior to the hot shooting game in the previous meeting the 4 clashes prior between these two teams all resulting in 219 or less points. Bet UNDER here. |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 38 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under. |
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03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - If the Playoffs where to start today this would be the 7/8 matchup play in game. In a playoff like atmosphere for both teams we like the defenses to rise to the occasion. Prior to the All-Star Break the Lakers were 25th in points allowed per game, giving up 118.2 per. The Timberwolves were better allowing 115.8PPG. Los Angeles has improved dramatically since the trade deadline and are giving up just 111PPG which is 6th best in the league. Minnesota has slipped slightly allowing 116.5PPG. Both teams were scoring more prior to the break too. The Lakers rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the season while the Wolves are 10th giving up just 1.139-points per possession. Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but recently (in their last five games) each team has slowed significantly in pace of play. Both teams are near average or below in offensive efficiency. These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 212 and 213. This game won’t be that low but it will be around 222. |
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03-30-23 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points. |
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03-30-23 | UAB -1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game. |
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03-29-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits. |
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03-28-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - The Bulls are coming off a big upset win over the Lakers on Sunday which makes this the 2nd night of a back-to-back. This is also their 3rd game in 4 days and 4th in 6. The Clippers meanwhile are coming off a home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday night. New Orleans shot ridiculously well overall by hitting 53% from the field and by making 21 of 34 3-pointers. Those numbers are clearly an anomaly as the Clippers are solid defensively. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bulls allow the 7th fewest points per game this season, rank 6th in opponents FG% and 11th in 3PT% defense. Offensively neither team is great with the Bulls ranking 20th in scoring at 113.4PPG and the Clippers 23rd at 112.8PPG. The Clippers have stayed Under at home in 19 of their last 26 games when facing a team with a sub .500 record. The Bulls are 4-1 to the Under when playing without rest and those games have averaged 218PPG. When these teams met in late January, they produced just 211 total points. Expert another UNDER here. |
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03-26-23 | Nets v. Magic -2 | Top | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic -2 vs Brooklyn Nets, 6:10 PM ET - The Orlando Magic catch the Nets in a favorable scheduling situation as Brooklyn is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile the Magic have been off since the 23rd. Orlando likes to play fast and will dictate tempo here as the rested home team. The Magic are averaging 100.1 possessions per game over their last five games which is 6th fastest in the NBA. Brooklyn has faced a gauntlet of playoff caliber teams in Miami, the Cavaliers twice, Denver and Sacramento so the mental and physical fatigue will catch up to them here. Orlando clearly hasn’t quit on the season as they’ve won 3 of their last four games and also played the Suns and Lakers well in 6-point and 3-point road losses. Orlando has covered 5 straight games overall. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State OVER 134.5 | Top | 56-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – San Diego State vs Creighton, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - Creighton’s offense has been rolling in the NCAA tourney scoring 72, 85, and 86 points. Their last 2 games they averaged 1.21 PPP and 1.24 PPP vs Baylor and Princeton reaching 161 total points in each of those wins. Since March 1st the Blue Jays have averaged 82 PPG on 1.20 PPP which ranks them 16th nationally during that time period. The Aztecs averaged 73 PPG on the season and they just put up 71 points on Alabama who has the 3rd most efficient defense in the nation. Bama only had 64 points but had a brutal night from beyond the arc making just 3 of 27 (11%) and that game and they put up only 0.86 PPP. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 35% in the game and it still reached 135 total points despite that brutal offensive effort. We expect the Aztecs offense to play much better here vs a Creighton defense that allowed 75 points to Princeton on Friday and has given up at least 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Creighton games have totaled at least 135 points in 11 straight games. The Jays will want to play fast and while San Diego State is a slower paced team, when they fast an up tempo team on Friday (Bama) the 2 teams combined for 140 shot attempts and 42 FT attempts. This total is set too low in our opinion and we’ll take the Over. |
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03-25-23 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 225 | Top | 131-110 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 New Orleans Pelicans @ LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - In recent times this has been a low scoring series. In their last four meetings the most points produced in a game was 219, the other three finished with 206 or less. The Pelicans play solid defense and have held their last two opponents to 96 and 84 points. That’s not a huge surprise considering they own the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.126-points per possession allowed. The Pelicans have also held their last five foes to an average of 43.8% shooting. The Clippers also know a little something about defense. LA is 12th in DEFF ratings and they hold opponents to 47.1% shooting which is 12th. In their last 7 games the Clippers defense has allowed 105 or less points five times. Neither team is a great shooting team ranking 11th and 16th in team FG%. The Clippers will dictate tempo here and they prefer a slower pace. New Orleans is average in pace of play. It all adds up to a big Under winner Saturday. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State OVER 144 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 144 Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State, 6:10 PM ET - Our predictive analytics have this game finishing with 151 or more total points as we expect both teams to score in the high 70’s or above. Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats is a dynamic point guard that sees the floor extremely well and can shoot it too. He had 20-points and 19 assists in K-State’s win over Michigan State. KSU wants to play fast with the 43rd highest Adjusted Tempo rating in the nation and on average it takes them just 16.5 seconds to hoist a shot. The Wildcats rank 35th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. They also own a 52.2EFG% which is good for 82nd. Florida Atlantic is also very capable of point up points in a hurry with an offense that was 26th in OEFF at 1.146PPP. The Owls were average in Adjusted Tempo, but their average possession length was considerably faster. FAU has an EFG% of 54.3% which is 26 in the nation and they rank 45th or better in both 3PT% and 2PT%. Looking at the Owls most recent 13 games we find they scored 90 or more points four times. They scored 70+ in 10 of their last thirteen games. Kansas State has scored 73 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. KSU averaged over 76PPG and that’s with a majority of those games coming in Big12 play where 6 of the top 27 defensive efficiency teams reside. We love the spot for a shootout! Easy OVER! |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Texas -4 vs. Xavier, 9:45 PM ET - Texas is a team very capable of winning it all this year, Xavier is not. The Longhorns come from the best conference in the country and have played the 7th toughest schedule this season. Despite playing their brutal schedule the Horns rank 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.164-points per possession. Defensively they rank 10th allowing just .917PPP. They are top 56 in both offensive and defensive EFG%. Texas is 16-6 SU their last 22 games and the six losses came on the road in a hostile Big 12 environment. Xavier has a pair of unimpressive wins to get here as they beat Kennesaw State and a play in team in Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the 7th most efficient offense in college hoops and are 62nd defensively. Our metrics tell us their strength of schedule isn’t as good some experts may suggest. They have some early season losses to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. As we mentioned, Xavier has solid defensive efficiency numbers but they did allow 74.5PPG on the season which ranked them 305th. Texas had a +10.6 average scoring differential which was 11th in the nation. We predict a double-digit win here. |
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03-24-23 | Pacers +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +11.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - These teams have met twice this season and it’s evident the Pacers match up well with the Celtics. Indiana won here in late December as a +9.5-point underdog and then took the C’s to overtime and lost by 4-points in late February. The current injury report says Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton should be ready to go against Boston Friday night. Indiana has 3 quality road wins on their resume in their last ten games as they won at Chicago, in Milwaukee and at Toronto. The Pacers have a 9-3 ATS record when tabbed a dog of +7.5 or more points. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but they are coming off a long 6-game West Coast Road trip and have lost 2 of their last three at home. Boston’s average home differential is impressive at +9PPG but that’s not enough to get a cover here. Indiana is the desperate team here fighting for the 10th spot and play in game in the East. Grab the points. |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama UNDER 138 | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 138 San Diego State vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM ET - We get two different styles of play here as the Tide want to play fast with the 5th fastest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, while San Diego State is 263rd in that same category. Both teams are somewhat similar offensively with the 18th most efficient offense for Bama and the 70th for the Aztecs. What each team does exceptionally well is play defense. San Diego State allows .908-points per possession which is 6th best in the nation. They own the 28th best EFG% defense and are 4th best in defending the 3-point line. As good as the Aztecs are, the Tide are better. Bama is 3rd in DEFF allowing .881PPP, rank 1st in EFG% defense, 3rd in 3PT% defense and 1st in FG% D. These two teams have trended to the Under when playing good competition or teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. In that scenario, the Aztecs have stayed Under in 6 straight, Alabama is 5-1 Under in their last six in the same situation. Bet UNDER! |
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03-23-23 | Thunder v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here. |
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03-23-23 | Gonzaga v. UCLA -120 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA Bruins -120 vs. Gonzaga, 9:45 PM ET - We like the Bruins and their defense to get it done against the Zags. UCLA ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .878-points per possession. They held opponents to 31% 3PT shooting (29th) and 46.6% on 2-pointers which ranked 38th. They owned the 20th best EFG% defense at 46.5. Gonzaga does own the #1 ranked offense in terms of efficiency at 1.235PPP, but that number is inflated from playing in the West Coast Conference. The Bruins won’t be intimidated by the Zags offense as they recently held a very good Arizona offense, averaging 82PPG, to just 59 points. UCLA also owns a very good offense that is 21st in OEFF at 1.155PPP. The difference is the Zags aren’t on the Bruins level defensively as Gonzaga ranks 75th in DEFF. Gonzaga plays a tough early season schedule every season and this year was no different. They suffered 3 losses to quality teams such as UCLA when they lost to Baylor close and were blown out by Texas and Purdue. Gonzaga has won 11 straight games but 7 of those came against teams ranked 100th or worse. UCLA is 14-1 SU their last fifteen games with a +/- of +12.8PPG. UCLA is on a 5-1-1 ATS run their last seven, Gonzaga is on an 0-7 ATS streak in NCAA tournament games. |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest. |
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03-22-23 | Suns v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +1.5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - This is a meaningful game for both teams as the Suns are fighting for the 4 seed in the West, which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are just trying to get in. Los Angeles has been MUCH better defensively with LeBron out of the lineup as they are allowing just 110.5PPG since the All-Star break. That’s significantly lower than the 118.2PPG (25th in NBA) prior to the break. The Suns defense has slipped a little since the break and are giving up +2 more PPG than they did pre-All-Star break. The Suns will be without their starting center Deandre Ayton who can defend Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Without Ayton the Suns don’t have an answer for AD who is capable of carrying this Lakers team (five 30-point games in last ten). The Suns aren’t a great road team at 15-21 SU away with a negative -0.6PPG differential. The Lakers have an average +/- at home of plus nearly 3PPG. Both teams need a win, but the Lakers are the more desperate team here. |
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03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Vanderbilt pick’em over UAB, 7 PM ET - We have to side with Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores at home against the UAB Blazers. Vandy finished the season strong with 12 wins in 14 games and just survived a scare against Michigan. The Dores have several impressive wins on their resume with 2 over Kentucky, they beat Tennessee, Florida twice, Mississippi State and Auburn. The overall schedule strength of Vandy is 32nd in the nation and they still have impressive efficiency numbers, ranking 24 in OEFF and 148 in DEFF. UAB is no slouch and have played extremely well themselves with 14 wins in their last sixteen games but 12 of those were against teams ranked outside of the top 100 per Ken Pom. In fact, 6 of those W’s came against teams ranked 200th or worse. Vandy was 14-5 SU at home in the tough SEC, UAB was 6-5 SU away. |
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03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 236.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - When these two teams met earlier this season they produced total points of 202 and 228. Our analytics suggest another game in the mid 220’s. When it comes to defense there aren’t many teams playing better than the Clippers, who are allowing 1.118-points per possession in their last five games. One of the three other teams that rate better than the Clippers in that 5-game stretch is the Thunder. OKC is 1st in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the last five games at 1.062PPP. LA is the home team here and they will dictate tempo or pace which should be slow. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the NBA this season. The Thunder average 121.1PPG at home which is the second highest average in the league. But on the road that average dips to 114.1PPG. The Clippers are the 4th lowest scoring team in the league when playing at home at 111.4PPG, but also give up just 109.8PPG. 12 of the last sixteen meetings on this court between these two teams has stayed Under the number. |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 134.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 134.5 Wisconsin @ Oregon, 9 PM ET - The Ducks are dealing with injuries with several starters missing both NIT games thus far. Reports are they will have All-Pac 12 starting center N’Faly Dante back for this game against Wisconsin and potentially Jermaine Couisnard. Those are important pieces for a Ducks team that was 53rd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .979PPP. Oregon held opponents to 66.7PPG on the season on 41.7% shooting. The Ducks just faced UCF who is very similar to Wisconsin when it come to pace of play as the Knights averaged 64.8 possessions per game which was 307th in the nation. This Badger team is even slower yet, ranking 342nd at 63.5 and it takes them on average 19.6 seconds per possession to get a shot up (348th). Wisconsin also knows a little something about defense ranking 27th in the country in DEFF allowing just .950-points per possession. The Badgers were a very poor shooting team on the season at 41.7% (317th) and scored just 65.2PPG. Bucky is coming off a game at home where they shot 54% overall which is unlikely to happen again, especially on the road. Oregon has an adjusted tempo of 66.7 which ranks them 205th so they prefer a slower pace also. The bet here is UNDER. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 226 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:10 PM ET - The pace of play should be very slow in this contest as the 76ers are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA and the Bulls are 14th. On the season these two teams are also both stout defensively with the 5th and 6th ranked defensive efficiency units allowing 1.128-points per possession. In each teams last five games they have been even better defensively allowing just 1.108PPP (Bulls) and 1.102PPP (76ers). Both teams defend the 3-point line well too ranking 4th and 12th in 3PT% defense. Chicago is coming off a game against the Heat which finished with 212 total points and 162 total field goal attempts. Philly recently played a game against the Cavaliers in which there were only 160 FGA’s but the Sixers put up 118 points on unusually high shooting percentages of 52% overall and 47% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have some favorable road Under numbers while the 76ers have one of the lowest total points average when at home. |
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03-20-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Charlotte | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin. |
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03-19-23 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Orlando Magic @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - The Lakers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Magic have been eliminated for quite some time. The young Magic have had flashes of being a viable team, but recently the grind has started to catch up with them. Orlando is 3-6 SU their last nine games but are coming off a win over the Clippers. For the season the Magic are right around league average in pace of play and defensive efficiency ratings. They rank 26th in offensive efficiency though, averaging just 1.120PPP. For the season the Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams in the league, but with LeBron out they run the offense through Anthony Davis which has led to a slower pace of play. Case in point is their pace of play in the last five games of 96.9 possessions per game which ranks 22nd slowest in the NBA. It’s no coincidence that the Lakers defense has been much better without LeBron too as they allowed over 118PPG prior to the All-Star break and are giving up just 111PPG without him on the court. In their last five games the Lakers hold the 11th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Both teams defend the 3-point line extremely well ranking 8th (Magic) and 2nd (Lakers) and neither shoots it well from Downtown. Orlando ranks 24th in the league in 3PT% at 34.6%, while the Lakers rank 27th at 33.9%. No chance these two teams get to more than 230 total points. |
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03-19-23 | Creighton +1.5 v. Baylor | Top | 85-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call. |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 140.5 Points – Michigan State vs Marquette, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - We were on the Under in the 1st round game Vermont vs Marquette and we’ll stick with that in today’s Golden Eagles match up with Michigan State. After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. In Friday’s NCAA opener they limited Vermont to 61 points on 0.97 PPP. All 4 of those defensive efforts were impressive and this Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. After struggling defensively their final few games of the regular season, MSU head coach Tom Izzo made it clear to his team they needed to pick it up on that end of the court. They took that to heart and held a good USC offense that averages 73 PPG to just 62 points on Friday. Even after the game Izzo stressed how his team won because they played better defense. Both defenses force opponents into long possessions with Marquette opponents taking 18.7 seconds per possession (7th best in the nation) and MSU opponents taking 18.3 seconds per possession (38th). MSU ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency and while Marquette struggled early in the season on that end of the court, they actually rank 22nd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Offensively Marquette likes to play fast although they’ve slowed down considerably as of late. They’ve averaged just 68 PPG in regulation in the post season (conference & NCAA) and MSU will slow this game down (Sparty 304th in adjusted tempo). Neither team is great at offensive rebounding (both ranked outside the top 220) and neither scores many points from the FT line (both outside the top 300 in % of points from the charity stripe). We project this game to land in the mid 130’s and we love the value on the Under. |
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03-19-23 | Liberty v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 127.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 127.5 Points – Northwestern vs UCLA, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Two slow paced teams, UCLA 235th and NW 309th in adjusted tempo, that play very good defense. UCLA ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats rank 19th. The Bruins allow just 60 PPG (7th nationally) while NW gives up only 62 PPG (20th). More recently, since February 1st both of these defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in efficiency. NW has allowed less than 70 points in 14 of their last 16 games while UCLA has allowed less than 70 in 12 of their last 14 games. Since losing @ USC on January 26th, the Bruins have held 11 of their last 14 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP. Offensively neither team is overly efficient away from home this season. Both barely average 1.00 PPP on the road and neither is a great shooting team. Northwestern ranks 316th in eFG% and UCLA ranks 155th. The Bruins score very little from beyond the arc (333rd in % of points from deep) and while NW takes more 3’s, they only shoot 32% from out there (275th). Lastly neither team gets to the FT line very often so we don’t look for many freebies in this game. This will be a grinder that should stay Under barring any late fouling (scramble) situations. |
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03-18-23 | Wolves v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 224 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors, 7:10PM ET - This line opened 228 and has bet down to the current number and we love the added value with an Over bet here. Minnesota is coming off a double-overtime game last night in Chicago and have been a slight Over team when playing without rest. The Wolves O/U record when coming off a game the night before is 6-5 but those games have averaged 240.5PPG. On the season the Wolves games have averaged over 231 total points. When playing away from home the Wolves games average slightly more at 232.1PPG. Toronto is very consistent with their scoring as they average right around 224 total points from game both home and away. The Raptors offense has clicked in two straight games with 125 versus the Nuggets and 128 last time out against the Thunder. Minnesota shoots it at a 49.1% rate which is 4th best in the NBA and the Raptors defense allows opponents 49.2% which ranks 28th worst. Toronto is on a 6-1 Over streak, while Minnesota is 5-1 Over their last six road games versus teams with a +.600 or better record. Bet OVER HERE! |
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03-18-23 | Duke -3 v. Tennessee | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play. |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU. |
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03-17-23 | Wizards v. Cavs -6 | Top | 94-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here. |
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03-17-23 | Vermont v. Marquette UNDER 144.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
#743/744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 144.5 Points – Vermont vs Marquette, Friday at 2:45 PM ET - After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. All 3 of those defensive efforts were impressive, especially the final 2 as both UConn and Xavier are ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. This Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. They are facing a Vermont offense that ranks 98th in efficiency, however they haven’t faced many top tier defensive teams this season. Their conference, America East, doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The only top 70 defenses they’ve faced all season were St Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Yale. The Catamounts scored 53, 57, 50, and 44 points in those games respectively. Vermont is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (313th in adjusted tempo) and they know they have to slow this game down to have a chance. They were solid defensively this season ranking #1 in the conference in efficiency. Neither team is very good on the offensive glass which will mean very few 2nd chance points. Neither team fouls very much and when it comes to percentage of points at the FT line they both rank outside the top 325. Vermont makes this a slow paced game and Marquette’s defense continues to shine. Under here. |
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03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier OVER 154 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
#787/788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154 Points – Kennesaw State vs Xavier, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Two fast paced teams going at it here in game where we should see lots of offensive possessions. Both rank in the top 100 in offensive possessions per game while Xavier is 39th nationally in adjusted tempo and Kennesaw State is 121st. The Musketeers rank 12th in the country in scoring averaging 82 PPG while the Owls aren’t far behind averaging 76 PPG (89th in the nation). On the other end of the court, neither of these teams is all that great defensively. When it comes to guarding the 3 point arc, both are poor ranking outside the top 230 and they are facing offenses that are very good at hitting from deep with Xavier making 39.5% (3rd in the nation) and KSU making 37% (34th in the nation). The Owls defense ranked 212th this season in eFG% allowed despite the majority of their games coming in a conference (Atlantic Sun) that had only 3 teams ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Xavier’s defense has been shaky all season allowing 74.5 PPG (305th nationally). These 2 have been cashing Overs all season long with a combined record of 40-24-2 to the Over. Should be an exciting game to watch if you like offense. High scoring and we like the Over. |
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03-16-23 | Kings v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings! |
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03-16-23 | Auburn v. Iowa UNDER 152 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
#751/752 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 152 Points – Iowa vs Auburn, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET - We’ve discussed Iowa’s massive offensive dichotomy when playing at home compared to on the road many times this season. Their offensive efficiency numbers drop for 1.22 PPP at home to 0.99 PPP on the road or neutral site. They average a ridiculous 20 fewer points away from home (89 PPG at home / 69 PPG on the road). Lastly their shooting numbers on the road are 41% overall and only 28% from deep. The Hawkeyes are facing a very good defense here in Auburn. The Tigers 5th nationally defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 28.8%. They also rank 12th in eFG% defense and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cats allowed just 67 PPG and we expect Iowa to struggle offensive as they often do away from home. Iowa’s defense isn’t great by any means, however the Auburn offense isn’t either. They rank outside the top 300 in 3 point FG% making only 31% and the Tigers rank just 248th in eFG%. They’ve also slowed down their pace dramatically compared to past seasons. This year they sit 165th in adjusted tempo after finishing in the top 55 the previous 2 seasons. Iowa will want to play fast but Auburn will want to slow this one down a bit. Iowa’s road games average 141 total points and Auburn’s road games averaged 142 total points. Unless both teams shoot lights out, we don’t see this getting into the 150’s. This is an unfamiliar venue for both teams and we’ll call for the Under here. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - C of C will be a very popular underdog play on Thursday as they step into this game with a 31-3 record. That’s an impressive run for sure, however the Cougars have played a very easy schedule this season – ranked 305th strength of schedule. They have played ONE top 100 team since late November and they lost that game at home vs Hofstra. The Cougs didn’t waltz through their conference tourney erasing a 2nd half deficits in both games to win close vs UNC Wilmington and Towson. San Diego State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season. Meanwhile, SDSU has played the 34th most difficult schedule this season facing 20 opponents currently ranked in the top 100 per KenPom. The Aztecs were 11-6 vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents this season while C of C was 2-1. The Cougars are a deep team that rotates 10 players to wear opponents down and they shoot a bunch of 3’s (37% of their points come from beyond the arc – 28th nationally). The problem here is, they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team (210th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they won’t be able to wear down a deep and talented Aztec team (30th in bench minutes). SDSU is also a fantastic defense ranked 10th in the country in efficiency and 7th in 3 point FG% allowing opponents only 29% from deep. By comparison, the Cougs have ONE defense ranked in the top 100 in their conference, the Colonial. That was UNCW who ranks 97th and played C of C in the conference championship game and held them to 0.98 PPP and just 23% from deep in a very close Cougar win. If we look at the KenPom ratings, C of C would rank 6th in the MWC, a conference San Diego State won by 2 full games. The conference records of these 2 teams was almost identical despite playing in much tougher league. SDSU finished 18-3 in the Mountain West (6th best conference) and College of Charleston finished 19-2 in the Colonial (26th best conference) – conference tournament wins included. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Aztecs had a +20.2 PPP margin this season while the Cougars were +11.8. We like the value with San Diego State vs the popular underdog. |
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03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls +1.5 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - We like this Kings team and hope they make some noise in the Playoffs but today we are on the home team Bulls as a small dog. We like the scheduling advantage for the Bulls who have been off since last Saturday. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games 13 straight games against teams in the Playoff hunt. They are coming off a big game against the Eastern Conference leading Bucks. The big difference between these two teams is defense. Chicago owns the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.128-points per possession. With the new addition of defensive minded Pat Beverly they are allowing 1.103PPP in their last three games. Sacramento has the 3rd worst DEFF allowing 1.209PPP on the season and 1.230PPP in their last three games. Granted, the Kings have a decided edge offensively, but given the scheduling we like the home defensive dog. Chicago’s 9th ranked FG percentage defense can limit the Kings 2nd best shooting offense. Sacramento ranks 29th in FG% defense and the Bulls are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 49%. Back the Bulls! |
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03-15-23 | UCF +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 55 m | Show |
#713 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCF +3.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - One thing we know for sure is UCF is jacked for this game. They haven’t faced the state big boy since the 2012/13 season and the motivated Knights are good enough to pull the upset here. Central Florida had a disappointing season finishing 8-10 in the AAC despite ranking as the 4th best team per KenPom behind only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati. This team is better than their overall 18-14 record would indicate. Their adjusted efficiency margin was +12.6 points per 100 possessions which would indicate their record should be better than it is. They are solid on both ends of the court ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Golden Knights also play a very slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo) which could be a problem for the Gators who like to play fast. We would anticipate UCF slowing this game down giving them the best chance to win. Florida had much higher expectations entering the season and really played worse as the year progressed. They started the season ranked 35th by KenPom and ended the year ranked outside the top 60. The closed the season losing 7 of their last 10 games with their only wins coming vs Ole Miss, UGA, and LSU, 3 of the 4 SEC teams ranked outside the top 100. They really struggled after losing leading scorer & rebounder Colin Castleton in late February winning 2 of 8 games without him in the line up and he remains out. We’re not so sure that this Florida team is all that excited to be in the NIT this season. Both defenses are very solid holding opponents to less than 0.98 PPP. Offensively, UCF is the better shooting team. The Knights have the better offensive efficiency numbers, they make 36% of their triples (83rd nationally compared to Florida who ranks 291st in that statistic) and they make 77% of their FT’s. When facing the best teams in the AAC, the Knights played well losing to NCAA #1 seed Houston by 6 & 11 points while beating Memphis the first meeting and then getting nipped by 2 and 5 points in their other 2 vs the Tigers. In the non-conference this team nearly beat Miami FL (lost by 2) and Missouri (lost by 2). We like their chances here at the upset and we’ll take the points. |
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03-14-23 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 233 | Top | 116-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* UNDER 232.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - Both teams are playing their second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights so fatigue becomes a factor. That should lead to less possessions and scoring opportunities as both will regress in pace of play here. When these two teams met in Milwaukee in late February, they combined for 182 field goal attempts (slightly more than league average) but produced just 205 total points. When it comes to pace of play the Suns are one of the slowest in the league at 98 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Milwaukee plays faster ranking 11th overall, but given the schedule we expect them to play at the Suns preferred tempo tonight. Both teams can defend as the Bucks rank 3rd overall in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.108-points per possession. The Suns rank 8th at 1.129PPP. When the Bucks have faced an above .500 team this season those games have averaged 224.8 total points per game. When the Suns have faced a team of the same caliber (above .500) those games have averaged 222.5PPG. We expect both defenses to shine tonight. Bet UNDER! |
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03-14-23 | Bradley v. Wisconsin UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
#675/676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Bradley vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We have 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country facing off in Madison on Tuesday night. The Braves rank 289th in adjusted tempo and Wisconsin ranks 348th. Defensively both of these teams make opposing offenses work hard for a decent shot. Opponents vs the UW defense have an average possession time of 18.3 seconds (325th) and the Bradley defense allows opponents an average possession length of 18.7 seconds (357th). Offensively these teams rank 345th (Wisconsin) and 319th (Bradley) in possessions per game out of 363 teams. The fact is, there just won’t be many opportunities for the offenses in this game. And when there are, both defenses are solid. Wisconsin ranks 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Bradley ranks 51st (1st in the Missouri Valley Conference). Neither teams is adept on the offensive glass while both are very good defensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points will be minimal. We should also see very few FT attempts in this game as both Wisconsin and Bradley rank outside the top 340 in percentage of points from the charity stripe and when they get there both only shoot in the mid 60% range. We don’t see either of these teams topping 65 points in this one and we’ll grab the Under. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#669 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M CC -3.5 over SE Missouri State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We see this as a potential mismatch in Tuesday’s NCAA tourney play in game. Texas A&M CC was here last year and lost to Texas Southern so they are not simply happy to be here. They expected to be back and are set on winning this game. The Islanders are very experienced returning all 5 starters from last year’s game that lost in the play in round. That group has an overall record of 46-22 the last 2 years. They did lose one of their key players, Terrion Murdix, in their conference championship game last week and he is out for the season. He’s a very well liked teammate and we expect the others to rally around this injury and play with a little extra on Tuesday. They were the best team in the Southland Conference all season long finishing in first place in the regular season, winning the conference tourney to get here and ending the year #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play. The Southland Championship game was last Wednesday so the Islanders have had a week off to get ready for this one. SE Missouri State, on the other hand, just played 4 consecutive games (Wed – Sat) in the OVC tourney in Indiana and now with only 2 days off they are on the road and at it again. Unlike A&M, this team was not the best in their conference this season. They finished tied for 3rd place with 2 other teams and the Redhawks were barely positive in their PPP margin in league play this season. This is also a program that is not used to being in this situation as their last winning record was way back in 2014. They haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2000 and we’re guessing they might be just happy to be here as it was not expected this season. TAMU-CC is a very good offensive team averaging 81 PPG and they rank 38th nationally in 3 point %. They are facing a defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 77 PPG (337th nationally). We look for a win & cover for the Islanders on Tuesday. |
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03-13-23 | Suns +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
#555 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Suns have owned this series winning all 3 meetings this season and none have been particularly close with margins of victory being +9, +11, and +12. On top of that, the Suns were only at full strength for 1 of those games with Booker, Ayton, and Paul missing time and Steph Curry scored 50 points in one of those games and Phoenix still got the win. Phoenix is still waiting for the return of Kevin Durant from the unfortunate injury when he was warming up for his home debut, but they are healthy otherwise and have been solid with an 8-3 record since Devin Booker returned to the lineup from an injury. Their overall record of 37-30 doesn’t paint an accurate picture as Phoenix was just 11-16 in the 27 games Booker missed. Since the All Star break, the Suns are 5-2 but lead the NBA in efficiency differential at +9.9 while the Warriors are 10th at +2.8. We’re also getting a well rested Suns team as they’ve played just 7 games since the All Star break while Golden State has played 10 games. We like the situation here with Golden State off huge OT win vs Milwaukee (minus Giannis) on Saturday while were getting Phoenix off a loss on Saturday vs Sacramento. The Suns have performed very well coming off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record dating back to early January. The Warriors have been very tough at home this season but we still like the points here and expect the Suns to have a solid shot at the win, if not we anticipate a close game. |
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03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -4.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Quick revenge here for Bama. This is who they wanted in the finals and this is who they got. In the season finale A&M played host to Bama and we were on the Aggies in that game. It was a perfect storm to grab the home team as the Tide had just beaten arch rival Auburn to clinch the SEC title and now were on the road in a somewhat meaningless game. We were actually impressed with Bama’s resolve in that game (considering the circumstances) as they fell behind by 15 and battled back to take the lead with under 5 minutes remaining in the game before ultimately losing 67-61. The difference in that game? Free Throws! A&M made 27 of their 28 FT’s in that game while the Crimson Tide made only 10 freebies. Despite the huge discrepancy from the line and the game being on the road, Alabama was able to keep it close down the stretch. The controlled the boards in that game (+10) and gathered 35% of their misses to give them a number of 2nd chance opportunities. Alabama is easily the best team in the SEC and probably the best team in the country when they actually show up and play like they are capable. They should do that today with the A&M loss still fresh in their minds (9 days ago). They rank #1 in the SEC in offensive & defensive efficiency as well as offensive & defensive eFG%. Bama has 5 losses on the season with 4 of those coming vs teams inside KenPom’s top 20. The Aggies have 8 losses, all vs teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 20 with 2 coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Alabama is simply the better team and very motivated here. Lay it. |
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03-11-23 | Bucks v. Warriors OVER 240 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on OVER 240 Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors, Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - We expect a very high scoring game between these two teams on Saturday. The Warriors season long statistics are somewhat misleading as they’ve dealt with major injuries to their superstars. Even with that being the case they are still 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 118.1PPG. Golden State is 4th in effective FG% shooting at 56.8% and 4th in overall 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee is 15th on the season in offensive efficiency at 1.148-points per possession but in their last five games they rank 3rd at 1.251PPP. The Bucks are averaging 115.8PPG on the season and have put up 127PPG in their last three games. The Bucks have maintained a top defensive efficiency rating this season but the Warriors have not, ranking 17th. Golden State simply wants to outscore their opponents which is why they rank 1st in pace of play at 102 possessions per game. The Bucks will play fast too as they rank 12th pace at 100.1. When these two teams met earlier this season they combined for 239 total points. Last year when these two teams met in Cali they produced 231 total points. We are betting this game will be a shootout. |
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03-11-23 | Kent State v. Toledo OVER 148.5 | Top | 93-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 149 Points – Kent State vs Toledo, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - In the MAC Title game we have 2 fast paced, extremely efficient offenses which should lead to a high scoring game. Toledo ranks 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are #1 in the MAC. The Rockets have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 17 games! They are in the top 5 nationally in PPG, FG%, and 3 point FG%. They also hit 77% of their FT’s as a team. On the other end of the court, Toledo struggles. The rank outside the top 250 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. Kent ranks 4th in the MAC in offensive efficiency and they average 76 PPG on the season. The Golden Flashes have been on quite a roll offensively as well putting up at least 70 points in 10 straight games. Kent’s defense is much better than Toledo’s ranking 1st in the MAC in efficiency, however, they’ve held some of the poor offensive teams in the conference in check but the top teams have put up points vs the Flashes. The 4 most efficient offenses in the league minus Kent’s offense were Toledo, Akron, Ball St, and Ohio, and they averaged 72 PPG vs this Kent defense. In yesterday’s games, Toledo topped Ohio 82-75 despite shooting only 44% combined from the field. Kent topped Akron 79-73 and those 2 teams combined to make only 41% of their shots. We expect both teams to shoot better than those numbers today and this game gets at least into the 150’s. |
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03-11-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -6.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on OSU 2 days ago vs Iowa and picked up a nice win. Yesterday we switched gears and took Michigan State over Ohio State and came up short. MSU, the top 3 point shooting team in the Big 10, made 3 of 16 from deep for just 19%. The Buckeyes made 10 three pointers and hit 53% from beyond the arc (+21 points from 3) and that was the difference. The Buckeyes have been a bit fortunate with their opponents missing from the arc in this tourney. Wisconsin, Iowa, and MSU combined to make only 11 of their 55 three point attempts (20%). OSU played their game yesterday without their leading scorer Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG) who tweaked his knee vs Iowa the day before. The OSU medical staff is doing some tests on Friday night to decide if he’s OK to go on Saturday. The Bucks rose to the occasion and played very well without their top player which often happens in the first game dealing with the injury. If Sensabaugh can’t play Saturday it will make it really tough on this team. Even if he can go and isn’t 100%, this is a very difficult spot for the streaking Buckeyes. They are playing their 4th game in 4 days while Purdue is playing just their 2nd. Down another player yesterday, the Buckeyes played 4 of their 5 starters 35+ minutes. Now they face a Purdue team that has been the best in the Big 10 all season long. The Boilers are a huge team facing a fatigued OSU squad that isn’t very deep up front after losing top big man Zed Key in mid February. Purdue should definitely control the boards in this game (#1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Big 10) and that should lead to a number of extra possessions. In their match up in late February, a 27 points Purdue win, the Boilers crushed OSU on the boards (+23) and they gathered more than 45% of their misses in both games. PU also fouls less than any team in the league and gets to the FT line more than any team in the conference. Unless the Buckeyes shoot lights out again, we just don’t see them hanging in this one. Lay it with the Boilermakers as they pull away in the 2nd half. |
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03-10-23 | Hawks v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 114-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +1.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from Wednesday night when the Hawks beat the Wizards by 2. Statistically the game was about as even as it gets with the Hawks benefitting from +10 free throw attempts. Washington was in a tough scheduling situation having played the night before and they were playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta won’t have that scheduling advantage and are also playing into immediate revenge. Washington is 15-16 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Atlanta is 13-19 SU when coming off a win, 4-10 SU when away off a W. The Hawks have a losing road record of 15-20 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. Washington has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with Atlanta and will get a big home win here. |
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03-10-23 | Duke -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over Miami FL, Friday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met back in February in Miami we were all over the Canes and picked up an EASY win. Miami was a 3 point favorite in that game and rolled the Devils 81-59 in an embarrassing performance by Duke. It was a perfect spot to fade the Blue Devils as they had just beaten UNC at home 2 days earlier and had to go on the road and play another game just 48 hours later. Duke followed that up with a spirited performance in an OT loss @ UVA and have since won 7 in a row. This team is peaking right now and we’re not so sure about Miami. Over their last 5 games Duke is winning by an average score of 78-64 hitting 50% of their shots while holding their opponents to 38% shooting. Yesterday they absolutely obliterated a very solid Pitt team by the final score of 96-69! Because of that they were able to spread their minutes out with 15 guys logging minutes and 10 of those playing double digit minutes. Meanwhile Miami went to the wire with Wake before winning 74-72. That’s been a theme for the Hurricanes down the stretch as they’ve been fortunate to come out on top in a number of games. In their last 4 games they held on to beat Va Tech by 6, lost to Florida State (2nd lowest rated team in the ACC), beat Pitt by 2, and then topped WF by 2. The Miami defense has allowed 78 PPG and 48% shooting by their opponents over the last 5 games. This game is in Greensboro so it will be a HEAVY Duke crowd. Two teams heading in opposite directions here and one should be ultra motivated after getting destroyed in their most recent meeting. Lay the small number with Duke. |
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03-10-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -3.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - We were on OSU yesterday vs Iowa and we love the way the Buckeyes are playing right now. That being said, we feel this is where their run comes to an end. This is a really tough spot for OSU playing their 3rd straight day and 4th game in 7 days while MSU has been resting since Saturday. Speaking of last Saturday, Michigan State played host to the Buckeyes in their home finale and won 84-78. Sparty led that game by 9 at half and OSU got to within 3 for about 10 seconds in the 2nd half but never got closer than 5 beyond that. That was the 2nd meeting between these 2. In the first meeting @ Ohio State, the Spartans rolled to a 62-41 win. The Bucks have shot extremely well the first 2 games of this tournament hitting 52 of their 103 shot attempts for 50.5%. They’ve also made 42% of their 3 point attempts in those 2 games. We would expect facing a very solid and rested MSU defense (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) that tired legs will most likely bring those shooting percentages down quite a bit in this game. The Buckeyes have also benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents, especially from beyond the arc. In their opener Wisconsin made only 4 of 22 from 3 point land and yesterday Iowa was 4-17. That’s a combined 8 of 39 for only 20%. It’s not as if OSU has a fantastic 3 point defense as they rank 11th in the conference allowing almost 36%. Today they face the best 3 point shooting team in the Big 10 with MSU making 41.5% from deep in league play. With potential tired legs defensively, we expect the Spartans to have a number of open looks. This is also a Michigan State offense that is peaking down the stretch scoring 80 or more points in each of their last 4 games. This one might be close into the 2nd half but we look for MSU to pull away down the stretch as they take advantage of OSU’s fatigue. If Sparty needs to make FT’s to salt this one away, they are #1 in Big 10 play hitting 78.5% from the stripe. This is a small number to lay in this situation and we’ll take the Spartans. |
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03-09-23 | Rockets v. Pacers -9 | Top | 125-134 | Push | 0 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9 vs Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston is 2-12 SU their last 14 games and the two wins came against the worst team in the league the Spurs. Recently the Rockets beat the Spurs twice but prior to that stretch they had lost 11 in a row. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. After beating the Spurs the Rockers were trounced at home by the Nets by 22. Houston has the 2nd worst overall average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. When playing away from home the Rockets get beat by an average of 11.3PPG. The Pacers are playing much better again with their All-Star PG Haliburton back in the lineup. They have won 3 of their last five games and one of those two losses came against the 76ers. Indiana is still fighting for a playoff spot and have enough talent on the roster to win this game by double digits. The Pacers have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Rockets in Indianapolis. |
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03-09-23 | Arkansas -125 v. Auburn | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
NOTE: Line has moved since completing our write-up on this one so we are now going money line (-125) here with this play after Arkansas previously was a +1 in this one: #761 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +1 over Auburn, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Razors are undervalued entering this tourney having lost 5 of their last 7 games. Those results have made them an underdog in a game we feel they should be favored. Arky finished the SEC regular season with an 8-10 record yet KenPom has them rated as the 3rd best team in the league (19th in the country) behind only Alabama & Tennessee. Our power ratings are in line with that as well. This is one of the more talented teams in the SEC (3 potential NBA draft picks) and now they have new life as we start a new season and they make their run to try and solidify their spot Big Dance (currently projected as 9 or 10 seed). Their star freshman Nick Smith (#1 recruit in the country) missed 13 games from late December to early February and he is now back and healthy. He’s scored 24 points or more in 3 of his last 4 games. While we think Arkansas is undervalued, we have Auburn as an overvalued team right now. The Tigers are off a huge home win over Tennessee to close out the season, however the Vols were playing their first game without their starting PG who is now out for the year. Prior to that win, Auburn was 1-6 SU vs the 5 highest rated teams in the SEC per Ken Pom. That lone win was vs this Arkansas team way back in January when the Razorbacks were without Nick Smith. Arky dominated the boards in that game (+13) but shot poorly hitting only 12% of their 3’s in the loss. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules on the season and despite having a worse record, Arkansas is the much better shooting team (93rd nationally eFG% / Auburn is 235th) and while Auburn is very good defensively, the Razors have better efficiency numbers on that end of the court as well (16th nationally). Wrong team getting points here in our opinion and we’ll take the value with Arkansas. |
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03-09-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan -3 | Top | 62-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -3 over Rutgers, Thursday at 12 PM ET - A bubble showdown game here early on Thursday. Rutgers was all but in a month ago but the Knights have proceeded to lose 6 of their last 8 games with their only wins coming by 1 point vs Wisconsin and by 3 points vs PSU. Their offense has been non-existent scoring 60 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games and they are now officially the worst shooting team in the Big 10 (dead last in eFG%). Rutgers declined started when they lost key starter Mawot Mag (8 PPG & 5 RPG) who was one of the top defensive players. He is out for the season. This poor shooting team is facing a Michigan defense that has played very well down the stretch and the Wolverines now rank #1 in the Big 10 in eFG% defense. Offensively they are solid as well ranking 4th in the Big 10 in efficiency and they are 2nd in the league in scoring (conference games). Michigan enters this game of back to back tight OT losses on the road @ Illinois and @ Indiana. Prior to that they had won 6 of 8 and were very close to winning 8 of 10 had they been able to pull the upsets on the road vs top tier conference teams to close out the season. These 2 faced off @ Rutgers at the end of February and the Wolverines dominated in a 13 point win. They did so with one of their top players, Jett Howard, on the bench with an injury and he is now back and healthy. Michigan held Rutgers to just 45 points in that game on 0.74 PPP. They also had an advantage on the boards and fewer turnovers. Both of these teams need a win desperately to remain in consideration for the NCAA tourney and Michigan was the much better team over the last month or so. If they can win @ Rutgers, a very tough place to play, and win handily without one of the top scorers, they should do the same here. Lay the small number with the Wolverines. |
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03-08-23 | Raptors v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 10:10 PM ET - Now that the Clippers “got the monkey off their backs” with a win over the Grizzlies we like them to continue to trend up as they adjust to the addition of Russell Westbrook. LA had lost 5 straight prior to their most recent win but all 5 of those L’s came against top teams in the West. Now they face an average team with a below .500 record from the East. Toronto is 12-21 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit neither of those teams compare to this Clippers team. Los Angeles is 16-15 SU at home with a +/- of +1.2PPG. Neither team shoots it overly well overall with the Raptors hitting just 45.5% of their field goal attempts (26th), while the Clippers make 47.1% good for 17th. Where the Clippers do excel though is from beyond the arc with the 6th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Toronto is second-to-last in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 37.7%. The Clippers have an added day of rest while the Raptors played 2 nights ago in the higher altitude of Denver. Buy low on the Clippers tonight! |
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03-08-23 | Stanford v. Utah | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah pick-em over Stanford, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like the Utes quite a bit heading into the Pac 12 tourney. We think they are undervalued after losing their last 5 games of the season. The fact is they haven’t been healthy down the stretch but they are at full strength for this game. Starting guards Madsen and Worster have missed a number of games down the stretch which has really affected this team. Madsen missed 7 in a row before returning for the season finale @ Colorado while Worster missed 2 straight vs UCLA & USC before coming back in that same game. The Utes lost that game running into a buzzsaw in Boulder which was Colorado’s home finale. Those 2 players combined for 24 points in their 69-60 loss @ CU to close out the season but the team shot poorly at just 33%. With 1 game at full strength under their belts, we look for a solid performance on Wednesday. Utah has a great defense. They rank 33rd nationally in defensive efficiency, 7th in eFG% defense, 17th in 3 point FG% defense, and 11th in 2 point FG% defense. Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense & 3 point FG% defense along with ranking 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency. Offensively the Cardinal really rely in making 3 pointers offensive with 36% of their points coming from deep (2nd in conference play). We mentioned how good Utah’s 3 point defense is so that’s going to be a problem for Stanford. These 2 met once this year and Utah was at full strength and dominated that game which was @ Stanford. These 2 split their meeting this year with each winning on the opponent’s home court. Here the difference. In the first meeting @ Stanford, the Utes were at full strength and dominated for much of the game despite the 71-66 final score. Utah led by 16 with 8 minutes to go in the game. When the played in Utah, the Utes were without Madsen and lost a tight game despite shooting just 39% while the Cardinal lit it up at 53% from the field and 56% from 3 point land. Utah is the better team and they just need to win this one based on the spread. We’ll take it. |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 131.5 | Top | 65-57 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
#679/680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points – Ohio State vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect a slow paced, defensive battle as most Big 10 match ups tend to be. Wisconsin is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation averaging only 65 possessions per game (347th). OSU averages just 68 possessions per game which is 259th in the nation. Wisconsin’s defense is very solid allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (26th nationally) and while OSU’s isn’t quite as good (125th nationally) they should be able to limit a Badger offense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 in scoring and eFG% and 12th in offensive efficiency. Wisconsin has scored 65 points or fewer in 16 of their 20 Big 10 games this season and we don’t expect them to be great on offense tonight. The Badger rely very heavily on the 3 point shot and they’re not great at it ranking 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%. They don’t shoot well at the rim or inside the arc period ranking 328th hitting only 46% of their shots. OSU, on the other hand, doesn’t shoot many 3’s (26% of their points coming from deep – 12th in the Big 10) and their top inside scoring, Zed Key is injured so that will affect their inside game. Finally we don’t expect many trips to the FT line in this game as both rank inside the top 80 nationally in not fouling while both offenses rank outside the top 300 in % of points from the FT line. In their only meeting this season these 2 totaled 125 points and we see s similar outcome here. Let’s not forget that his is at the United Center in Chicago which is a large NBA venue that can be tough on shooters. Under is the play. |
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03-07-23 | Nets -6 v. Rockets | Top | 118-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Most experts wrote the Nets off after the trade deadline when they dealt Kevin Durant to Phoenix and Kyrie Irving to Dallas. But Brooklyn is 5-5 SU their last ten games and still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Nets are starting to gel offensively and building around Mikal Bridges who has scored 30+ points in four games since joining Brooklyn. The Nets are off two wins over the Celtics and Hornets and have a winning road record of 17-16 SU for the season. Brooklyn is 3rd in overall FG% offense, 3rd in 3-point shooting and 18th in scoring (granted those numbers include KD and Kyrie). The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston has won 2 straight over the 16-win Spurs but had lost 11 straight going into that home-and-home. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. Houston has the 2nd worst average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. Houston is just 9-22 SU with a negative +/- of minus -4.4PPG at home this season. Lay the points with the short road favorite here. |
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03-07-23 | Hornets +10 v. Knicks | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +10 @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of those plug your nose bets, but several key indicators have us on the Hornets. The red-hot Knicks have covered 10 of their last twelve games but now they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread. New York has only been favored by 10 or more points once this season and they failed to cover in a 3-point win over the Spurs. With more tickets and money flowing in on the Knicks this line moved from -9.5 to minus -10, and is now getting bet back by the Sharps. The Knicks have played a brutally tough schedule of late, including an OT game against the Celtics last time out. They are about to embark on a West Coast trip so it will be easy for them to look past the struggling Hornets here. Charlotte had won 5-straight games, lost PG Ball to a broken ankle, then lost three straight. Charlotte is 7-5-1 ATS this season when tabbed a double-digit underdog. NY is 21-25-2 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. This is one of those games where the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Knicks, so bet contrarian and take the ugly underdog! |
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03-07-23 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON Notre Dame +7.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Irish had a rough season to say the least with a 3-17 Big East record. However, there have been signs of life down the stretch and they start a new season tonight. ND upset Pitt one week ago today in their home finale and then fell flat on Saturday @ Clemson. That was somewhat understandable as their game @ Clemson was pretty much meaningless as the Irish were already locked into the 14 seed while the Tigers were still fighting for a double bye. It’s one of the few games this year that Notre Dame was blown out. Despite their 17 losses, they were in most of their games and could have a much better record. 11 of their 17 conference losses came by 8 points or fewer and 5 of those were 1 possession games (lost by 3 or less). 5 of their last 7 losses down the stretch were close including losing to this Va Tech team by 6 points on February 11th. The FT disparity in that game was the difference with the Hokies making 20 FT’s to just 6 for the Irish. That was an aberration in our opinion as neither of these teams gets to the FT line all that often (ranked outside the top 330 in % of points from the charity stripe) and neither fouls very much (both in the top 50 nationally in % of points allowed from the FT line). Other than that key stat, there wasn’t anything else that stood out as a big advantage in that game for either team as most were fairly even. VT was far from stellar in the weak ACC this year finishing with a record of 8-12 in league play. They enter this tournament on a modest 2 game winning streak over FSU & Louisville, the 2 worst teams in the ACC. We’ll keep an eye on ND freshman guard JJ Starling, one of the top freshmen in the conference, as he’s missed a few games with a knee bruise. If he plays it’s a bonus as we like Notre Dame at this number whether he’s in or out. Take the points. |
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03-06-23 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota State UNDER 142 | Top | 89-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
#875/876 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 142 Points – North Dakota State vs South Dakota State, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - This will be the third time these 2 have faced each other this year and the first 2 meetings had drastically different results in regards to the total. The first meeting NDSU won 65-59 for 124 total points scored. The 2nd meeting SDSU won 90-85 for 175 total points scored so the difference between the 2 meetings was a whopping 51 points. The interesting part here was the 2nd meeting in which they scored 175 points was just a month ago and despite that high scoring affair, this total opened 143 and has dropped to 141. We agree with the move. The first meeting was much closer to the norm for these 2 teams. Only 124 total points scored yet both averaged over 1.00 PPP in that game. South Dakota State averaged 1.01 PPP and they average 1.05 so not a drastic difference. North Dakota State actually eclipsed their average despite the low scoring game averaging 1.10 PPP in the win and their season average is 1.04. In the 2nd meeting that totaled 175 points both were WAY over their season averages on the offensive end. SDSU averaged a whopping 1.38 PPP in that game while NDSU put up 1.31 PPP. The combined to shoot almost 57% from the field (both average 45%) and they made 46% of their 3’s (they average 33% and 34% on the season). Both of these defenses drastically underperformed in that game as they rank 2nd and 3rd in the Summit in defensive efficiency. You can bet after their most recent meeting both coaches have stressed defense heading into this game. Both teams are poor offensive rebounding teams (ranked outside the top 300) and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t see many 2nd chances in that regard. We also anticipate minimal FT attempts in this game as neither foul much and offensive neither get to the line very often (outside the top 200 in % of points scored at the FT line). Both defenses showed up in their opening game of this conference tourney allowed 68 (NDSU) and 55 (SDSU) points with both of their games staying Under the total by a combined 30 points. Neither averages 70 PPG away from home this year and we think this game stays in the 130’s. Take the Under. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6 vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - Denver has the 2nd best overall record in the NBA and the best home record at 29-4 SU. They win at home by an average of +11.9PPG which is best in the league. In their three most recent home games they were favored by similar numbers over three Western Conference teams that rate better than Toronto and they won all three by 9+ points. Toronto is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. As an away dog the Raptors are 11-9 ATS. As a home favorite the Nuggets are 20-10-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +4.2PPG. Toronto was recently +7.5 points at a similar Cleveland team and lost by 25-points. The Nuggets last played March 3rd so they have extra rest and a rest advantage. When playing with a rest advantage the Nugs are 11-4-1 ATS. When playing on 2 or more days off they are 9-3 ATS this season. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit which doesn’t impress us. The Nuggets have plenty to play for which is the #1 record overall (trail the Bucks by 1-game) which would mean home court advantage if they make the Finals. |
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03-06-23 | Hawks +3 v. Heat | Top | 128-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over the Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a quick rematch game for both teams as they just played Saturday in Miami with the Heat winning 117-109. Only 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings so it takes on an added importance for both teams. On Saturday, Miami held slight edges shooting at 51% compared to 47% overall and 37% to 30% from beyond the Arc. The Heat won that game by 8-points despite the Hawks two leading scorers Dejounte Murray (21PPG) and Trae Young (26.7PPG) being held to 10 and 7-points respectively. We are betting those two have much better games tonight. Miami has a winning record at home but their +/- is 24th in the league at +0.8PPG. As a home favorite, the Heat own the 2nd worst winning percentage in the NBA at 25.9% ATS with a 7-20-2 spread record. Atlanta has a losing road record at 14-19 SU but it should be much better based on the fact they own the 11th best average MOV at -1.9PPG. As a road dog this season, they are .500 or 11-11 ATS. We like the Hawks here plus the points in this immediate revenge game. |
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03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -5 vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of our favorite scheduling situations as we get an elite team in the NBA off a loss laying a short number, at home and playing with recent revenge. Boston is coming off a home loss to the Nets, a game in which they led by as many as 28-points. That result, plus the fact they just lost to the Knicks on Feb 27th will have them focused and motivated here. In their recent loss to New York the Celtics were favored by -2-points and are now laying just a few more at home. Boston is 25-8 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 8.7PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The C’s have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 11th best defensively. The Knicks are playing well right now with 8 straight wins but it hasn’t come against an overly difficult schedule and the win against the Celtics came with Boston’s Jaylen Brown sitting out. NY has some solid road statistics with top 10 OEFF and DEFF rankings but are in a bad situation here with a very soft spread. The Knicks don’t shoot it as well as the Celtics and both have very comparable defensive statistics so we expect that edge to be the difference here. Bet the value and Celtics in this great situation. |
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03-05-23 | Maryland v. Penn State -3.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - We faded Maryland on the road earlier this week @ Ohio State and picked up a win and we’ll do it again today. The Terps stink on the road. No 2 ways around it. They have a grand total of 2 road wins this year and those came @ Minnesota, by far the worst team in the Big 10, and @ Louisville, by far the worst team in the ACC. Those 2 teams have combined record this year of 12-46! As expected based on their road record, the Terps key numbers drop off a cliff when they travel. At home their offense averages 1.15 points per possession and on the road they put up only 0.97 PPP. They average only 62 PPG on the road this season and if we throw out their game @ Minnesota, who has the worst defense in the Big 10, Maryland has been held under 60 points in 5 of their 7 conference roadies. PSU is playing their home finale and in must win mode. They are currently sitting just outside the NCAA field according to most analysts and can’t afford a home setback today. PSU has some momentum coming off an impressive road win @ Northwestern earlier this week. They also should have some extra incentive in this home finale as they lost their most recent home game, 59-56, vs Rutgers and the Nittany Lions blew a 19 point 2nd half lead in that one. Their offense has been exceptional this season at home averaging 78 PPG on 1.15 PPG and hitting over 40% of their 3’s. In their meeting a few weeks ago in Maryland, the Terps came away with a 74-68 win and in that game they made 18 FT’s to just 2 for PSU and it was still a tight game. This is just a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-04-23 | 76ers +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Yeah, we know…how can you bet against the Bucks who have won 16 straight games? Philly has a lineup that can compete with Milwaukee and Joel Embiid will put forth extra effort in a marquee matchup with Giannis. The Sixers are coming off a loss in Dallas and they’ve been good in this situation with a 6-2 record in their last eight games when coming off a loss. Overall, the 76ers are 12-9 ATS when off a loss and they have an average +/- in those games of +5.5PPG. Philly is 14-14 ATS on the road this season, but they do own a positive differential at +1.9PPG. Granted the Bucks are 27-5 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.4PPG, but the underdog has covered and won outright in 3 of the last four meetings. Grab the points with the Sixers. |
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03-04-23 | Connecticut v. Villanova +2.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova +2.5 over UConn, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nova is flying under the radar right now but they are playing as well as anyone in the Big East. The Cats have won 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve pushed their Big East record to 10-9 after starting just 4-8. Their top player, Justin Moore, missed the first 20 games of the season and since he’s come back and gotten acclimated to his teammates, they’ve played very good basketball. When Nova faced UConn earlier this season, Moore was not yet in the lineup and they hung tight losing by 8 on the road. In that game the Huskies were +6 at the FT line and +15 from beyond the arc yet even with those big advantages it was just a 2 point game with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. UConn is very talented but they’ve been up & down this year. They are entering this one on a 4 game winning streak but they’ve only been a .500 team on the road. The Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 on the road, however those 3 wins came vs St Johns, DePaul, and Georgetown, the 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. The one solid team they played on the road during that stretch was Creighton and they lost that game. Prior to winning 3 of 4 on the road, Connecticut had lost 4 in a row away from home and they average 10 PPG fewer on the road this season. They’ve also faced the easiest strength of schedule in Big East play yet they have 7 conference losses. This game is expected to be close based on the spread so free throws could be key. We look for the host Wildcats to have a solid advantage at the stripe as they get their often with 20% of their points coming from freebies (78th nationally). UConn fouls more than any team in the conference with their opponents scoring 24% of their points from the stripe. On top of that, Villanova makes 83% of their FT’s as a team this season. We like the Wildcats to win their home finale and getting points is a bonus. |
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03-04-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M -1.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -1.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Crimson Tide have been trending down as of late. Lots of obvious distractions going on right now and last 3 games Bama has looked shaky at best and 2 of those games were at home Over their last 3 games they nearly lost @ South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. Bama won that game by 2 points in OT and despite making 10 more FT’s than the Gamecocks, it was tight throughout. Following that performance the Tide were forced to come from down double digits at home vs Arkansas in a 3 point win. Most recently, on Wednesday hosting Auburn, Bama trailed for most of game and came back from 17 down with under 10 minutes remaining and won in OT. How important is this game to Bama? They already clinched SEC title with their win over arch rival Auburn earlier this week. This is pretty much a meaningless game as they close out the regular season. A&M has been playing outstanding basketball winning 7 of last 8 and they are a PERFECT 8-0 at home in SEC play. While they are locked into 2nd place, the Aggies will bring the heat here in their final home game of the season and facing off against the #1 team in the SEC. At home A&M has a PPG margin of +13 and their defense is allowing just 60 PPG. Bama, on the other hand, has seen a big dip in their road splits vs home splits. They average 12 PPG less on the road and efficiency drops way off on road from 1.18 PPP at home to 0.99 on the road. We like the Aggies to win this game at home. |
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03-03-23 | New Mexico -2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Friday at 11 PM ET - When healthy, the Lobos are as talented as any team in the Mountain West despite their 8-9 league record. Their star point guard Jaelen House missed back to back games earlier this month and since his return New Mexico is 2-2. However, taking a closer look at those games reveals they’ve played very well over their last 4. The 2 wins were both by double digits vs San Jose State & Fresno State. The 2 losses were vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference and New Mexico was in solid position to win both. They led by 13 @ Boise last week and shot only 37% from the field yet still had a shot at the win. The Lobos then faced #1 seed San Diego State over the weekend and again led by 13 in the 2nd half and the Aztecs led for a grand total of 3 minutes in the 2nd half but hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 2. The New Mexico offense is a terrible match up for this CSU defense. In the first meeting which was a NM blowout win, the Lobos scored 88 points on 1.28 PPP. The Rams rank dead last in the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing 1.12 PPG and 10th in eFG% allowed. They also have one of the worst 3 point defenses in the country (ranked 306th) while New Mexico is the best 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% of their triples in league play. The Lobos have averaged 85 PPG since House returned and they should have their way offensively tonight. It’s CSU’s final home game but they’ve been less than spectacular with a terrible 2-6 record at home in conference play. The Rams only 2 home wins in conference play were vs Wyoming and Fresno who have a combined MWC record of 10-25. CSU will be seeded anywhere from 7 to 11 for the upcoming conference tourney which means they’ll play on the first day no matter what. This game is huge for NM as a win sets them up to possibly get the 5 seed and avoid the play in round. We’ll take the much better team in a near pick-em game tonight. |
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03-03-23 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points per game. This game is NOT going to be ‘average’ according to our Math Model. The 3-point line will have a huge impact on this game. The Celtics attempt the 2nd most 3-pointers in the league at 41.9 per game. They also make 37.9% of those attempts which is 5th best in the NBA. Brooklyn has a very tough time defending the 3-point line as they allow opponents to make 37.6% of their attempts which is 29th or second to last in the NBA. Boston is coming off a game against the Cavs who own the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and that game finished with 230 total points with Boston scoring 117. Now they face a Nets team that is 20th in DEFF allowing 1.149PPP. The Nets have also struggled on the defensive end of the court recently, allowing an average of 125PPG over their last five games. We will need the Nets to score in this game too and they should. Brooklyn owns the 12th best offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.152-points per possession. The Nets are also playing faster with their recent roster change as they average 100.8 possessions per game in their last five games which is up from their season average of 98.6. These two teams met on Feb 1st and Boston came away with a 139-96 win. The Over has cashed in 6 of the last seven meetings in Beantown. We predict an easy Over in this one. |
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03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are two different teams when they have PG LaMello Ball in the lineup and when they don’t. Ball like to push tempo and play in the open court so possessions naturally go up. Charlotte is the 7th fastest paced team on the season overall but without Ball expect a more deliberate attack moving forward. While we are on the subject of pace, the Magic are the 17th slowest paced team in the NBA at 98.8 possessions per game. These two teams are both bottom 6 in the league when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Magic averaging 1.115-points per possession (25th) and Charlotte averaging 1.011PPP which is 29th. Both teams struggle to score with poor shooting at 20th or worse in the league in FG% and 3PT%. Both teams have seen their scoring numbers dip in their last five games compared to their season averages. These teams met in early February and produced 232 total points, but the Hornets had both Ball and Washington in the lineup, who are out tonight. That game didn’t have a ton of possessions at 174 which is around league average. In the other two meetings this season they produced total points of 217 and 206. With both teams limited offensively we expect a low total in this outcome. |
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03-03-23 | Akron v. Kent State -4 | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent State -4 over Akron, Friday at 7 PM ET - Revenge is in place for the 2nd place team in the MAC (Kent) in their home finale. A win here and a Toledo loss @ Ball State and the Golden Flashes can finish in a tie for 1st place. A win here and the worst they finish is in 2nd place. Kent traveled to Akron 1 month ago as a 1 point road favorite and lost the game 67-55. Now we’re only laying -5 (opening number) at home which is a nice value based on the spread when they met in early February. The Flashes, who average 1.11 PPP in MAC play this year, put up just 0.89 PPP in that loss which was by far their worst offensive performance of the MAC season. In fact, Kent has put up at least 1.00 PPP in every other conference game but 1 this season. In the loss, Akron made 20 FT’s while Kent made only 7 which turned out to be the difference in the game. Since that loss, they have won 6 of 7 games and their home court advantage has been terrific with a perfect 14-0 record this year. They average 83.6 PPG at home which is nearly 30 more than they scored @ Akron last month. They also shoot 48% at home while putting up 1.13 PPP we expect a much better offensive performance tonight. This is their home finale (and season finale) and with revenge along with celebrating 4 key seniors, we expect Kent to bring their best on Friday night. Since beating Kent, the Zips are 4-3 and struggled to beat Ball State in their home finale. The Cardinals led by double digits midway through the 2nd half and Akron battled back for the win. They have a .500 record on the road, but score only 68 PPG and average less than 1.00 PPP away from home (0.97 PPP). Facing a motivated Kent defense that ranks #1 in the MAC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and turnovers created will be tough for the Zips. Kent is the better team and extra motivated for this one. We’ll lay it with the Golden Flashes at home in their finale. |
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03-02-23 | Washington State v. Washington +1.5 | Top | 93-84 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
#770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Wazzou is off back to back road wins @ Stanford and @ Cal and now playing their 3rd straight away from home. Despite their 2 road wins over the last week, the Cougars have been terrible on the road this season. They have a record of 3-8 in true road games and they are averaging only 62 PPG this season away from home while making only 38% of their shots. Washington State’s offensive efficiency drops from 1.08 PPP at home to 0.97 PPP on the road. We’re also catching them as an overvalued road favorite because they’ve won 5 straight games. The fact is 4 of those 5 wins have come against the 4 lowest rated teams in the Pac 12. We’re getting the Huskies as a dog in their home finale and they are playing better winning 3 of 4. At home they are 12-5 on the season and their 3 home losses in conference play have come vs UCLA, Arizona, and USC, the 3 top teams in the Pac 12. The Huskies are set to close out their regular season with a revenge win over their arch rival. In their meeting earlier this season, Wazzou held on to win a tight game 56-51. In that game the Cougars outscored Washington by 12 points from beyond the arc and by 5 points from the FT line yet it was a down to the wire game. WSU relies very heavily on shooting well from 3 as almost 40% of their points come from deep. Problem for them here is, Washington is very good at defending the arc allowing 29% on the season which is good for 14th nationally. On top of that Wazzou only hits 32% of their triples on the road this season. Thus we do not expect the Cougs to have another big advantage from deep which will hurt them in this game. As expected, the dog in this huge rivalry has covered 8 in and 20 of the last 27. We like Washington to win this one outright. |
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03-02-23 | Pacers -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs had lost 16 straight games prior to a win in Utah in their last game out. We expect them to return to their losing ways again tonight versus a surging Pacers team vying for a Playoff spot. Not only did San Antonio go on a straight up losing streak they also have just 3 covers in their last seventeen games. Indiana has won 3 of four including an impressive win over the Mavericks last time out as a +8.5 point underdog. The Spurs are bad on both ends of the court ranking last in defensive efficiency, last in points allowed per game, last in overall FG% defense and 3PT% D. It’s not much better for them on the offensive end of the court where they rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 20th or worse in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% defense. The Pacers should take advantage of the Spurs defense with their 11th ranked 3PT shooting offense that hit’s 36.4% of their attempts. San Antonio has failed to cover in 4 straight home games and the Pacers are on a 4-0 spread streak on the road against sub .400 teams. The Pacers have also covered 4 straight in San Antonio. |
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03-02-23 | Appalachian State v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Alabama -3.5 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Early start here in the Sun Belt Conference tourney. We really like this South Alabama team and think they can make a run in this tournament. After starting the Sun Belt season with a 2-7 record, they Jags hit their stride winning 7 of their last 9 games in conference play. They are much better than their 9-9 Sun Belt record. The Jaguars PPP differential (conference play) is the 3rd best in the league behind only Marshall and Louisiana who finished with overall records of 24-7 and 23-7 respectively. This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is very balanced. Defensively they rank 1st in PPG allowed and eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency. Offensively they rank #1 in the Sun Belt in eFG% and turn the ball over only 15% of the time, the least in the conference. They were 3rd in the conference in PPG margin (+5.6) while App State was 8th at (+0.0 PPG) despite each finishing with a 9-9 record. The Mountaineers are not a great shooting team (258th nationally in eFG%) and they only average 65 PPG in conference play. If this one comes down to FT’s App State is not in a good spot ranking dead last in the Sun Belt making just 65% from the line. In their lone meeting this year, South Alabama won by 17 points despite taking 12 fewer shot attempts. The FT attempts were nearly dead even (11 to 10) so it wasn’t as if USA had a huge edge from the line to make up for the fewer shot attempts. They dominated more than the final score might indicate. This game is being played in a neutral site in Pensacola, FL which is only 55 miles from Mobile, AL, home of South Alabama. We like the Jaguars to make run in this tourney and it starts on Thursday morning. Lay it. |