ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week

We love this situation for Maryland.  The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday.  That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game.  On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland.  Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53.  Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home.  Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few.  These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win.  The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep.  They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game.  One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home.  Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG.  Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good.  The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%).  We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%.  The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road.  They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State.  We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home.

ASA play on: UNDER 225.5 Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics, 3:30PM ET – This numbers opened slightly higher than it is right now and immediately the public bettors played Over while the Sharps bet Under. Surprisingly, the Rockets are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.9 possessions per game. Boston is the 13th slowest paced team at 99.3 possessions per game. That’s a great start for and Under bet with a Total that is higher than the league average of 222. The Rockets are 2nd in offensive efficiency this season while Boston is 10th but their scoring averages are 11th (Rockets) and 15th (Boston). The Celtics are 4th in scoring defense allowing just 106.6 points per game. Houston is 15th allowing just 111.2PPG. The Celtics are clearly gearing up for the post season and are deliberately playing slower and more conservative. In their last five games the Celts and opponents have averaged just 207PPG. Houston prefers to play lower and slower away from home as their road games have averaged 220 total points per contest. Boston will dictate the pace here and when they do that it leads to an Under. The Celtics are Under in 17 of their last twenty-two games against teams with a winning record. The line is inflated, and the value is on the Under.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a great spot for New Mexico.  They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West.  The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34.  San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%.  Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort.  The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference).  Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins.  Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play.  Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27!  Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT.  We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU.  They are still just 3-7 away from home this season.  The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home!  New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made.  Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team.  With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season.  Lay it with the Lobos

ASA play on: #570 Utah Jazz -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 9PM ET – Look at this number and tell me what your first instinct is. The Bucks as an underdog? Take the points! NOT US, we’re going contrarian here and taking the team Vegas doesn’t want us to bet, Utah! The Bucks have been red hot with a 20-2 SU streak but this is not a good spot as they are coming off a big showcase win over the Lakers last night and will letdown here. Milwaukee used a 15-2 run to close the game last night (thankfully as we had the Bucks) and expended a ton of energy to get that W. As impressive as the Bucks run has been the Jazz have been nearly as good. Utah is 17-6 SU their last 23 games and are coming off a big win a few nights back over Denver. We’re comfortable with the spread on this game as the Jazz have been favored at home by similar numbers over the better teams in the West. The Jazz are 21-6 SU the last 27 clashes with the Bucks and have COVERED 15 of the last sixteen meetings in Utah. The Jazz have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA at +6.7PPG and that comes against a tougher schedule in the West. We’ll finish with this. Why are the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA, this big of an underdog against the 6th seed in the West? Because they’re going to win this game by 8 or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits.  We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch.  We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points.  We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now.  This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss.  Rutgers is trending upward.  They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid.  That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game.  Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday.  Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run.  They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch.  Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending.  In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining.  Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win.  Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well.  Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG.  Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making.  We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington.  We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field.  Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year.  That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points.  The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis.  He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February.  Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game.  In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win.  This will be their first road game without Travis.  Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy.  They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game.  Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama.  Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that.  The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky.  Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November.  We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 157 Points - Northern Kentucky @ UW Green Bay, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

UW Green Bay has really transformed from a run & gun high scoring, poor defensive team, into a team that doesn’t score as many points as it did earlier in the year and one that plays MUCH better defense than they had been.  Despite that, the oddsmakers continue to set high totals on this team.  Keep in mind UWGB has now gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7.  Not only have they been going UNDER the total, they have been close with their last 5 games staying under the number by a combined 120 points or 24 points per game!  Each of their last 5 games have stayed under by at least 10 points.  The Phoenix allowed a whopping 88 PPG through their first 9 Horizon League games.  Since then they have given up only 71 PPG over their last 8 games, an improvement of 17 PPG.  Offensively they have scored only 69 PPG over their last 5.  On Saturday they face an NKU defense that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st at defending the 3 point line.  NKU is 1st in the Horizon in offensive efficiency, however they might be without their leading scorer Drew McDonald in this one as he sat out Thursday’s game @ Milwaukee with back spasms.  The Norse only scored 65 points in that game and they held the Panthers to just 55 points. With a first round home game in the Horizon and a top 2 seed already locked up, we’d be surprised if McDonald played here.  Even if he does, this total is set too high.  NKU is very similar to Wright State (the top 2 teams in the league) who played @ UWGB on Thursday.  Wright is #1 in defensive efficiency and #2 in offensive efficiency while NKU is #1 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency.  They both play at a similar pace.  Thursday game here ended with a final score of UWGB 70 – Wright State 67.  We see a similar type game here with it staying well UNDER this hefty total. 

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – This is an interesting matchup from our perspective as we just won a wager against the Bucks on Wednesday and also won betting on the Lakers. Tonight, we have a great combination wager with an investment on the Bucks minus the points, and a play against Los Angeles. The Bucks were up 13 at the end of the 3rd and led by as many as 17 at one point over the Kings. Sacramento forced OT but the Bucks held on for the 1-point win. This is a much bigger game with a marquee showdown against LeBron and the Lakers so don’t expect a letup in this one. Milwaukee is 22-9 SU on the road this season with the second-best average point differential in the league at +6.4PPG. The Bucks were just favored by -6.5 points in Sacramento who is better than this Lakers team, yet the line is lower. We weren’t impressed with the Lakers win over the Pelicans the other night. LeBron and his lip service talked about flipping the switch on his playoff intensity and playing with a sense of urgency but he’s not living up to the talk. Sure, he’s put up impressive offensive numbers, but his defense is horrendous and it’s obvious to see he’s lost the team and their confidence. The entire team lacked the urgency LBJ talked about in a revenge game against the Pelicans, at home, off a couple bad losses AND with a limited Anthony Davis’s role. If they don’t show up for that game, they won’t show up here. L.A. has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at plus .8PPG and are just 18-12 SU in the Forum. When it comes to efficiency these two teams aren’t close. The Bucks are 4th in OEFF compared to the Lakers 21st ranking. Defensively the Bucks are 1st in DEFF while the Lakers are 12th and falling. Los Angeles played a very weak schedule prior to the break and we’re finding out just how bad this team is now that the level of competition has gone up. The Bucks by a dozen.

ASA play on: @Sacramento Kings -3 vs LA Clippers, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley (out tonight), Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings are just 1-4 SU their last five games which is why we are getting tremendous value tonight but look at who they’ve played. Sacramento has played arguably 4 of the five best teams in the league in this current stretch. They lost by 4 combined point IN Golden State and Denver, won in OKC and then just lost by 1-point to the Bucks at home the other night in over-time. Now they step way down in talent against a Clippers team that narrowly leads them in the West for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Kings have not had good success against the Clippers in recent years but these are not the same rosters. Sacramento is 100% or perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by -3.5 or less points this season (under-valued by the oddsmakers). The Clippers traded away their leading scorer in Tobias Harris and looked as it they were going to tank the rest of the season for a better draft status but they then won 3 of five games. Looking closer we see those wins came against Phoenix, Memphis and Dallas who are a combined 63-123 SU. Based on the efficiency differentials we calculate the Kings winning by 9 in this contest. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET

Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January.  Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66.  One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points.  His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here.  Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year.  They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS).  Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play.  Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be.  Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion.  They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage).  This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team.  Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points.  We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON St Louis over Carolina, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Blues are getting healthier. Though David Perron is still out, Alexander Steen is expected back. Also, it is likely Brayden Schenn returns too as he was at practice Wednesday plus Sammy Blais was returned to San Antonio, the AHL affiliate of the Blues. While St Louis appears to be in better shape heading into tonight's game, plus getting fantastic goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Jake Allen, the Hurricanes are really hurting on their blue line. Carolina recalled defensemen Jake Bean and Haydn Fleury from their AHL affiliate because both Calvin de Hann and Justin Faulk were lost to injuries on Tuesday night. The last thing teams want at this time of year is inexperience on the blue line but that is what the Canes are now dealing with in terms of their depth. Carolina has been hot but St Louis has been even hotter. Combining that factor with the better health and better goaltending of the Blues plus the line value since they are on the road, and you have a strong spot for backing St Louis here. The Blues have only 10 regulation losses on the road this season. No team in the Western Conference has fewer regulation road losses. Adding to the value here is the fact that not only has St Louis won 4 straight in this series, they've also won each of their last 4 visits to Carolina! Those streaks each reach 5-0 tonight per our computer math modeling. Bet ST LOUIS tonight

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses.  Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington.  The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate.  They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league.  Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight.  These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home.  The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon.  The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions.  Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host.  The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home.  ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton).  After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here.  Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference).   It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team.  The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team.  Interesting line move and we agree with it.  Take Oregon.

ASA play on: #530 Indiana Pacers -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – Both teams are coming off road games last night but we like one of the best teams in the East to rebound at home with a better effort, than a Wolves team on the road again and playing out the string. Minnesota has been bad all season on the road and currently have the 7th worst road record in the NBA at 9-22 SU with an average differential of -4.7PPG (20th in NBA). When playing without rest this season the Wolves are 2-6 SU with an average differential of -3.2PPG. Indiana has the 3rd best home point differential in the league this season at plus +9.3PPG which ties in nicely to their 23-8 SU home record. The Pacers are also 8-3 SU/ATS when playing without rest this season. Karl Anthony Towns had a monster game last night in their OT loss in Atlanta with 35 points and 18 rebounds, but he’ll have a very hard time duplicating those numbers against the defensive minded center for Indiana, Miles Turner. The Wolves have just 1 road win in their last seven away from home and that came against the lowly Knicks. The Pacers on the other hand are 12-3 SU their last 15 at home and the three losses came to the Bucks, Warriors and 76ers. Of those 12 wins only ONE came by less than 8-points and ALL twelve came by 4 or more points. With the 76ers nipping at the Pacers heels in the East we like them to get this home win by 8 or more.

ASA play on: #526 LA Lakers -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:30PM ET – If you’ve read our opinions on LeBron and the Lakers you clearly know where we stand on this subject. I personally feel LeBron is a fraud and all this drama this season surrounding the trade deadline was caused by him (and his agent). He knew what the roster was going into the season but was more concerned at that time about the glitz and glam of Hollywood. You make your bed, you must sleep in it. But that’s a side point and I got distracted. When it comes to investing, we put all of that aside though as it’s about the Benjamins and how many we can take from the Books. We are betting the Lakers show up tonight as this game is on national TV and the Pelicans just beat them the other night which helped escalate all the talk in the media. The Lakers were JUST FAVORED by -6.5-points IN NEW ORLEANS and now are laying less than that here? So, what you’re telling me is that the Lakers just got 10-points worse in 5 days? Yeah, no way. The Pelicans are just 9-23 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of -1.8PPG. Digging deeper we find the Pels are just 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS versus the Western Conference. The Lakers most recent home game was a 5-point win over Houston so asking them to cover this number is not too much to ask for. With Anthony Davis having a limited role for New Orleans it only adds to our confidence in our wager as we know they won’t jeopardize his trade value by playing him late in this contest. The Lakers get revenge here and win by double-digits!

ASA play on: #526 Sacramento Kings +6.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET – The Sacramento Kings have been VERY good to us this season as we’ve won nearly every time we’ve bet on or against them. The Bucks continue to hold the best record in the NBA at 46-14 SU and the public has taken notice. Most of the tickets and money tonight has been bet on the Bucks. That’s perfect for us as it gives us added value with the up-and-coming Kings.  Milwaukee is 14-6 SU against the West this season but just 10-10 ATS which tells us they haven’t been good versus the West as a favorite. The East has improved dramatically but the West is still deeper from top to bottom. Proof of that is Sacramento’s 14-5-1 ATS record (14-6 SU) against the East and they are currently 9th in the West. The Kings recently played 3 games against three of the best teams in the West on the road. They lost to the Warriors by 2, Denver by 2 and beat the Thunder. They return home off a road loss, facing a public team like Milwaukee which will have their full attention. The Bucks have a solid +6.6 points per game road differential this season, but that number is inflated by some blowout road wins over the weaker teams in the East (+14PPG in 6 games against the likes of Chicago, Washington, Orlando, Atlanta, New York and Cleveland). Sacramento is 9-1 SU their last ten home games, prior to that they were home dogs to Golden State and Denver, and they lost both by just 4-points each. This is an easy call with the young Sacramento Kings at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Northern Iowa +2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

Loyola continues to get way too much respect this year in our opinion.  This is not the team that made it to the Final 4 last season but they continue to be wagered as such.  They have been bet up to a road favorite in this game vs a team that is 9-7 in MVC play and one game out of first place behind Loyola, Missouri State, and Drake.  We’ve faded the Ramblers on the road a number of times this year with very good success.  That includes just a few days ago when we sided with Southern Illinois -1 at home vs Loyola and they Salukis went on to win 63-53.  The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU their last 5 road games with their lone win during that stretch coming @ Valpo by a final score of 56-51.  It was a game that Valpo led 9 with 7:00 minutes remaining and went on to score just 8 points the remainder of the game.  Now they are on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days facing perhaps the hottest team in the MVC.  Northern Iowa has won 4 consecutive games, all by double digits.  One of those wins was a 63-43 trouncing of Missouri State (tied with Loyola & Drake for 1st place) on the road.  Just before their 4 games run UNI lost a very tight game @ Drake (another 1st place team) in a game that had 19 lead changes.  So the Panthers have played the other 2 first place teams recently, beating one handily on the road and taking the other to the wire on the road.   Now they get to face their 3rd first place team but they get to do it at home on Senior Night with a chance to potentially move into a tie for first place with a win.  UNI is confident and playing their best basketball of the year.  They have outscored their last 5 opponents by an average score of 70-60 while making 47% of their shots and holding their opponents to 41%.  On the season they rank #2 in offensive efficiency in MVC play while ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency.  While Loyola does rank 1st in offensive efficiency, they are 8th in defensive efficiency and 10th (last) in eFG% defense.  Last year’s Loyola team ranked 1st in both of those defensive categories.  As we said, this team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s squad though people continue to think they are.  When these two faced off @ Loyola earlier this year NIU took the Ramblers to the wire losing 61-60.  Now the Panthers are playing much better than they were at that time and they are at home.  We have now doubt that Northern Iowa is the better team right now and they are getting points at home.  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +12 over LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a fantastic situational spot to go against this young LSU team.  While this is a very good Tiger team, keep in mind they play 4 freshmen in their 7 man rotation.  They are coming off back to back overtime games as well heading into this one.  On Saturday, they played host to Tennessee in a game with huge SEC implications.  The Vols led almost the entire game and did lead the entire 2nd half until 1:20 remaining when LSU was able to tie it.  The game went to OT and the Tigers won on a crazy end of game situation in which a Tennessee player was called for a foul going for an offensive rebound on his end of the court with 0.6 seconds remaining in a tie game.  The Tigers were in no position to win the game as they ball was not even in their offensive zone when the foul was called.  LSU made both FT’s and won in OT 82-80.  They are bound to have a letdown here after that win which was preceded by another OT game (loss to Florida) as we mentioned.  Not only that, they are facing a team they beat by 15 points earlier this year.  You can bet this freshmen laden team will have trouble bringing their “A” game tonight.  A&M is playing much better then than were when these two faced off in January.  Despite their 12-14 overall record, the Aggies have quietly won 4 of their last 5 games and have played 6 solid outings in a row.  In their game vs LSU in January, the Aggies shot just 33% overall and 3 of 21 from deep (14%).  Even with that horrible offensive performance, A&M still only lost by 15 which would be fairly close to this number tonight.  While LSU is 12-2 in SEC play, they’ve won only 3 of those by more than 10 points.  The Tigers last 7 games have all been decided by 5 points or less.  This is a bit of a dangerous game for LSU vs a surging A&M team that has now covered 7 of their last 8 road games.  The Tigers will most likely get this win at home in the end, but it should be much closer than most think. Take the points here.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Montreal at Detroit, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Canadiens are expected to have Jonathan Drouin back in the lineup tonight. Either way, this is a great spot to expect plenty from Montreal in the offensive zone. The Canadiens are off a tough 2-1 loss at Florida last night as they did manage 35 shots on goal. In fact Montreal has now totaled 110 shots on goal in their last 3 games. That is an average of 37 shots per game and, prior to the low-scoring loss to the Panthers, the Canadiens had scored 3 or more goals in 4 straight games. We are expecting each team to get at least 3 goals tonight and, of course, that would guarantee at least a 4-3 final at worst. Though we expect the Canadiens to score well in this one there are issues likely for them between the pipes. That is because their #1 goalie, Carey Price, was between in the crease last night. That means either Price has to go in the 2nd night of a back to back (which is not easy and rarely occurs) or Antti Niemi will be getting the call. The over is a fantastic 11-4-1 in Niemi's 16 starts this season! He has particularly struggled on the road where he has an .878 save percentage. He is likely to be opposed by the Red Wings Jimmy Howard tonight but he has been dealing with an illness. When Howard has played recently he has struggled. He has a poor .860 save percentage in his last 4 games (3 starts). If Jonathan Bernier gets the call in between the pipes the Detroit netminder has a rough .868 save percentage in his 5 divisional games (4 starts) this season. The over is 3-1 in those 4 starts. The Red Wings have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of their past 7 games. There have been no unders (3-0 and one push) the last 4 times the Canadiens have played the 2nd game of a back to back. The Red Wings have a number of trends supporting this play as well. Detroit's over is 11-6-1 when revenging a home loss, 12-6-1 when off a defeat by a multiple goal margin in their prior game, and 11-5-1 this season when entering a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Bet the OVER in Detroit early Tuesday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This game is MUCH, MUCH bigger for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes sit at 17-10 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play.  Most NCAA projections have them barely in the tourney right now (10 seed or so).  After this game they play back to back road games and then close with Wisconsin here.  They simply cannot afford to lose this game vs Iowa.  A win would be a resume builder vs a solid (but overrated in our opinion) Iowa Hawkeye team.  OSU has lost 3 of their last 4 games but two of those games were on the road vs top tier Big Ten opponents Michigan State & Maryland.  Their most recent home game was a 14-point win over Northwestern.  The Bucks struggle at times to score but they are much better at putting the ball in the basket at home where they average 75 PPG on 48% shooting.  They should also have a chance to thrive offensively tonight due to their opponent as the Iowa Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency.  OSU is much better on that end of the court ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and they gave the Hawkeyes some problems in their first meeting.  That game vs OSU was just one of five games this season that Iowa was held to a offensive efficiency rating of below 100.  Even though the Hawks had problems with this Buckeye defense in Iowa City, they still won by 10 due to a +10 advantage in made FT’s for the game (+14 in FT attempts).  OSU also had season high 21 turnovers in that game which contributed to a number of Iowa points.  Ohio State point guard CJ Jackson sat out last weekend’s loss @ Maryland but he did practice on Sunday and seems likely to play tonight which will give this team a boost.  Iowa looks to us like a team that is faltering a bit right now.  They are 10-6 overall in the Big Ten but their last 5 games have been shaky at best.  Those games include a tight 5-point win @ Indiana, a 1-point home win vs Northwestern (buzzer beater), a 2-point miracle buzzer beater win @ Rutgers, a loss at home vs Maryland, and a OT win last weekend at home vs Indiana.  Their road wins in league play have come against Rutgers (miracle shot), Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State – 4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the Big Ten.  Last year OSU was laying -14.5 on this court vs Iowa and now we’re looking at -3 to -3.5 just one year later.  The unranked Buckeyes are favored by a possession or more vs #22 Iowa?  Hmmm…  We like Ohio State here.

ASA play on: #568 Miami Heat -8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET – The Suns are obviously one of the teams currently in the NBA that are “not tryin for Zion”. Phoenix has lost 17 straight games and 24 of their last 26. They have some ugly road losses in that stretch too. In their two most recent road games they’ve lost to the Hawks by 8 and the Cavs by 13 who are two of the other worst teams in the league. The last time the Suns won a road game was back on December 26th in Orlando and 11 of their last fourteen road beats has come by 8 or more points. The Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and currently sit a game-and-a-half behind Charlotte for the 8th and final spot. Miami has lost two straight with the most recent being an upset at home to a hot Detroit team, so I expect them to bounce back here. Phoenix has an average differential on the road of -13PPG which is the worst number in the NBA and if the Heat can’t beat the Suns at home by double-digits who can they beat that badly at home? We will go contrarian here and lay the points with Miami when most will stay away from this bet.

ASA play on: #555 Orlando Magic +9.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 3:35PM ET – This is a great spot to play on the Magic and against the Raptors. Orlando went into the All-Star break on a solid streak by winning 5 straight games and 7 of their last eight games overall. They then came out of the break and were upset by the Bulls as an 8-point chalk. That will have them refocused here in Toronto. The Raptors may not be dialed in here today for the following reasons. One, they are coming off a huge home win versus the Spurs which was DeRozan’s first game back in Toronto, along with Leonard facing his former team. Two, the Raptors have a HUGE game on deck against Boston. Three, the Raptors beat the Magic by 29-points earlier this year so it will be easy to overlook them. In their last eight road games the Magic’s largest negative differential was -10-points in OKC. Their other road losses have come by 5, 4 and 5-points. The Raptors have one of the best home records in the NBA at 25-5 SU with a +8.1-point differential but clearly that differential won’t get the cover here. Toronto is just 8-15 ATS when laying 9 or more points this season. Grab the generous points and Orlando in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers (35-23 ATS). Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Thunder have similar numbers offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings, but OKC is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th) and score 113.6PPG which is 9th in the NBA. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 44% shooting and that includes two games against the other two best teams in the West, Denver and Golden Stage. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma City who has allowed opponents to hit nearly 47% of their attempts in their last five.  The Kings were recently a 7-point dog in Denver (who we rate better than OKC) and lost by just 2 points. Sacramento was just +12 in Golden State and took the Warriors to the wire, losing by just 2. The Kings last four road games have been decided by 2, 2, 4 and a 3-point win. OKC is coming off a double OT game last night versus Utah which saw Westbrook play 42+ minutes, George 50+, Adams 47+. The Thunder were a 4-point favorite last night and their isn’t much difference between the Kings and Jazz currently. The Kings 6-1 ATS steak versus the Thunder improves by a ‘W’ tonight. Grab the points!

CBB PLAY ON Washington State +1.5 over Utah, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - WSU is flying a bit under the radar right now due to their overall season record of just 11-15.  First off, four of those losses came when the Cougars were without Robert Franks who is one of the top players in the Pac 12.  Franks is back and playing his best basketball of the season averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 contests.  He leads the Pac 12 in scoring at 22 PPG and the 6’9 senior also averages almost 8 RPG.  The Cougs are 4-9 in league play, however Franks missed the first 3 conference games due to an injury so with him in the line up they are a respectable 4-6 in Pac 12 play.  WSU is playing their best basketball of the season right now winning 3 of their last 4 games.  They’ve done so playing against some of the top teams in the league beating ASU (#2 rated team in the Pac 12) on the road, beating Arizona on the road, losing to Washington (by far the #1 team on the league) by just 2 points and they topped Colorado here on Wednesday.  Over their last 5 the Cougars are averaging 78 PPG and winning by an average margin of 6 PPG.  They are also well rested as they had a full week off from Feb 9th to Feb 16th and have only played 2 games since.  Utah comes in trending downward losing 4 of their last 7 games.  They are one of the youngest teams in the Pac 12 starting 3 freshmen who seem to be hitting a wall.  That includes 2nd leading scorer Timmy Allen (12 PPG) who was out due to a back injury in the Utes 62-45 loss @ Washington on Wednesday.  He will be a game time decision for this one.  Utah, unlike WSU, is not rested as they will be playing their 4th game in 10 days.  When these two met in January, the Utes rolled to an 18-point win shooting 55% to just 35% for WSU.  Keep in mind, Franks, who was spoke about above, was out for the Cougars in that game.  He makes a huge difference on both ends of the court.   The host has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and these are two completely different teams than the ones that met over a month ago.  Washington State keeps playing well and they get the win at home.

ASA NBA play on: #529 Utah Jazz +4 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35PM ET – The Jazz knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last season and OKC has gotten their revenge on Utah twice already this season. With this being the 3rd meeting of the season that ‘revenge’ angle has worn off. Last night we liked Boston and the points over Milwaukee because of the edge with a good coach and extra time to prepare which is much like tonight’s contest with Quin Snyder and the Jazz. Utah is one of the better road teams in the NBA with a 14-15 SU record and a differential of +.2 which is 7th best in the league. They have been especially good off a loss with a 15-9 SU record, 14-3 ATS their last seventeen in that situation. Overall, as a dog in this price range the Jazz are 7-4 ATS this season. Oklahoma is clearly a team that could come out of the West (as is Utah) and they’ve been red hot of late with a 12-2 SU run, but only five of those wins have come against teams with an above .500 record. The line on this game is very inviting to bet OKC which has a ton of public money and tickets, so we’ll obviously bet the other way. Take Utah plus the points!

ASA play on: #507 Boston Celtics +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics who sit 4th in the East but are tied with Philly. Clearly the top 4 spots in the conference get home court in the first round which makes this final stretch of the regular season critical. Boston has had their issues on the road against good teams, but they do have a positive road differential of +2.8PPG which is the 5th best number in the NBA. The C’s come into this game having won 12 of their last fifteen games and have only been a road dog of 5 or more points just two times this year. We are not over-looking Milwaukee’s 14-2 SU run or their home point differential, but the situation clearly favors the dog here. Boston has the best coach in the game in our opinion and with the added rest and lack of distractions from the All-Star game he’ll have the perfect game plan for this game tonight. Boston has covered 9 of the last twelve meetings with the Bucks and they’ll keep this close throughout and I’m not surprised if they win outright.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record?  Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite.  That would be a mistake in our opinion.  App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward.  They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games.  Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball.  They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points.  It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT.  They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington.  That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them.  They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch.  They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%.  Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion.  They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4.  All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games.  Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play.  Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt.  Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games.  GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home.  They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable.  Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74.  App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79.  These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Northwestern @ Ohio State, Wed at 8:30 PM ET

These are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten (OSU 11th & Northwestern 14th) and both are currently in big time slumps on that end of the court.  Northwestern has made only 37% of their shots over the last 5 games and they are averaging just 57 PPG during that span.  They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) averaging just 60 PPG.  Over their last 6 games the Cats have topped 56 points just once and that was vs an up tempo Iowa team (2nd in Big Ten tempo) that is poor defensively (14th in conference in defensive efficiency).  Ohio State hasn’t been much better.  Over their last 5 games the Buckeyes have made only 42% of their shots and they are averaging 61 PPG.  They have been held to 56 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games.  OSU ranks 12th in the Big Ten (conference games) in scoring putting up only 64 PPG.  Defensively these teams are far ahead of the offenses.  They both rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 nationally in eFG% defense.  Both teams are slower paced (257th and 298th nationally) and neither gets to the FT line very often (12th and 10th in the Big Ten in FTA/FGA).  Ohio State may also be a bit undermanned tonight as starting guard CJ Jackson (13 PPG) injured his ankle over the weekend @ Michigan State and is not at 100%.  He may play, but it looks like he will be limited if he does.  We don’t see either of these struggling offenses getting back on track tonight and we envision a defensive grinder.  This total opened at 124 and has pushed up to 128 and we agree with the oddsmakers number.  The value is on the UNDER here and we’ll play it. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Clemson -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We think the Tigers come into this one a bit undervalued.  They are just 15-10 on the season and only 5-7 in league play.  However, they are 4-3 their last 7 games and their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 1, and 2 points all on the road.  They took a very good Louisville team to the wire on the road Saturday only to see the Cards win by a point.  This Clemson team is better than their record.  They returned 4 starters from last year’s team that finished 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16.  They are now backed into a corner at home in a must win spot.  They are 4-1 in ACC play at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Virginia.  The Tigers are fantastic defensively (13th nationally in defensive efficiency) but they have struggled on offense at times.  At home they seem to play much better on that end of the court shooting 47% and averaging 72 PPG here at Littlejohn Coliseum.  FSU comes in a bit overvalued in our minds after winning 7 straight games.  Keep in mind the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule thus far in the ACC yet they still are only 8-4 in league play.  With all of Clemson’s close losses, the Tigers could also be sitting with a similar record if a few bounces had gone their way.  FSU has just played the 2 worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech & Wake, their last 2 games winning each big giving them a false sense of security.  The Noles also have a huge game on deck with North Carolina so a look ahead wouldn’t be surprising especially playing a Clemson team they already beat in Tallahassee this year.  Florida State is 3-3 on the road in ACC play but two of those losses have come to lower tier teams Pitt & Boston College.  Last year Clemson, with basically the same line up, beat FSU here by 13 points as a 3-point favorite.  Now they are laying only 1 point in a must win spot.  The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and this is a MUCH bigger game for Clemson.  We’ll side with the Tigers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We had been very successful this season when playing on or against Bama heading into last Saturday.  We felt the Tide were in a great spot at home vs Florida and they laid an egg as the Gators blew them out in Tuscaloosa.  We’ll come back with the Crimson Tide here and expect a very good performance off that embarrassing home effort.  Head coach Avery Johnson was livid with Saturday’s effort and said he’d do whatever it takes to win, including benching players that don’t put forth the effort needed.  The players go the message as starting guard John Petty stated yesterday, “I guarantee you’ll see a whole nother team coming out on Tuesday.”  Bama is officially on the NCAA bubble and a loss here would be devastating.  As expected, the Tide have struggled to beat the top teams in the SEC on the road, however the lower tier teams they’ve proven they can beat.  The 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC, by a fairly wide margin, are Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mizzou.  The Tide have played 2 of those teams on the road this year beating both Mizzou and Vandy by double digits.  A&M started the SEC season losing 8 of their first 9 conference games.  Then last week they beat Mizzou & Georgia, two of the worst teams in the SEC, to get to 3-8.  Over the weekend they blew a double digit lead vs South Carolina and lost by 7.  That could very well be a demoralizing loss for this team and lingers into this match up.  The Aggies have had no home court advantage this year losing 6 of their last 8 home games.  They sit right near the bottom of the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency (13th & 14th).  Bama also has a bit more incentive here as they led A&M for 37 of the 40 minutes in Tuscaloosa but lost by 1-point on a off-balance, banked in 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Bama is the better team and they a lot of motivation here for the reasons discussed.  Where this line sits they really only have to win the game so we’ll take Alabama.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Bradley +4.5 over Drake, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The Braves came into the season with very high expectations with the majority of their key contributors returning from a 20-13 team.  After going just 8-10 their first 18 games including 0-5 to start Missouri Valley play, this talented team was definitely headed in the wrong direction.  That all turned around on January 20th when this team pulled the upset at Southern Illinois to pick up their first conference win.  They are now 7-2 their last 9 games, including 4 road wins.  Their offense struggled early in the year but over their last 8 games this team has made 47% of their 3-pointers (3 best in the nation during that stretch) and 49% of their shots overall.  That has catapulted this team that already had a very good defense (2nd in MVC in defensive efficiency & eFG% defense) and they are at the top of their game right now.  Their most recent two games were wins over 2 of the best teams in the league as they topped Loyola Chicago at home and then won @ Illinois State over the weekend.  The oddmakers have not caught up to this team as the last 8 times they’ve been an underdog, they’ve won 6 of those games outright.  Drake is tied for first place in the conference and just picked up their 20th win by holding on at home to beat Valpo by 5 over the weekend.  It’s their first 20 win season since 2007 so a bit of a letdown after achieving that major goal wouldn’t be a shocker.  Unlike Bradley, the Bulldogs aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year.  They are 4-2 their last 6 games, however all 4 of those wins have come by 6 points or less.  Their point differential over their last 5 games is dead even as they are averaging 74 PPG and allowing 74 PPG.  They already won @ Bradley back in early January when the Braves were faltering.  Bradley attempted 11 more shots in that first match up but made only 31% overall and only 20% from beyond the arc.  They are playing much better now and we expect a solid performance from the Braves who have a little extra motivation due to that first match up.  The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright and we give Bradley a great shot to win here.  There is a reason the 20-win, 1st place team is only favored by 4 facing the team that is 7-7 in conference play.  Take Bradley.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Vegas at Colorado, Monday at 9:05 PM ET

The over is 5-0 in the Golden Knights last 5 games. Vegas had been on a losing skid and so they made some line changes to spark the team and it worked out very well as they won 5-1 over visiting Nashville Saturday. Now the Golden Knights take to the road and they carry extra confidence from generating 50 shots on goal and scoring 5 goals against the Predators. The issue tonight for Vegas will be between the pipes. Though Malcolm Subban had a great start for the Golden Knights Saturday, Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to be back between the pipes tonight. Fleury's last 3 starts were all losses and Vegas allowed an average of 5 goals per game in those 3 defeats. Ever since the calendar turned the page to 2019, Fleury has not been the same netminder he was in the first 3 months of this season. Should Vegas surprise and go with Subban again, we would gladly challenge him to come up big again in consecutive starts. Subban has not been used in back to back starts this entire season. The Avalanche are known for their dangerous top line of Rantanen, MacKinnon, and Landeskog. With Vegas playing a more aggressive style again, this is likely to lead to some end to end action in this game with swift moving of the puck creating solid scoring chances and some breakdowns on defense. The Avalanche know all about defensive breakdowns as they have lost 6 straight home games and allowed an average of 4.7 goals per game in those 6 defeats! The Avs are off a rare home shutout but, even with recent struggles, Colorado entered that game having averaged 3 goals per game in their prior 12 games. With consideration to all of the above factors, we see no reason that each team won't get to at least 3 goals here and, of course, the game can't end 3-3! Great value with this over at 6 even for Monday night. Prior to the home shutout versus the Blues Saturday, the over was 6-2 in Colorado's previous 8 home games. The over is 4-1 in the Golden Knights last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The over is 8-2 this season when the Avalanche scored a goal or less in their prior game. This is a revenge game for the Avs and that is a situation that has seen the over go 77-54 long-term including 19-11 this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado Monday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois +9.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - On Fox Sports 1

These two met back in January and Wisconsin (-4) won the game 72-60 and looking at the final stats it wasn’t surprising.  The Badgers shot over 50% overall and 50% from beyond the arc.  They also hit 81% at the FT line.  Illinois, on the other hand, made just 35% of their shots and a paltry 19% from deep.  Even with that, the game was not a blowout.  It landed right around where tonight’s number sits.  Since that game the Illini have played very well winning 5 of their last 6 games heading into tonight.  It’s not as if they are beating all lower tier Big Ten teams either as they’ve knocked off Michigan State, Maryland, and Ohio State during that stretch.  The Illini have really turned up the heat defensively as their pressure defense ranks #1 in the Big Ten at creating turnovers.  While Wisconsin is normally tight with the ball, they did cough it up 17 times @ Illinois or 25% of their possessions which is very high.  To give you an idea, that number would rank them dead last in the Big Ten by a lot.  Those turnovers led the Illinois taking 15 more shot attempts, the problem was they shot so terribly they couldn’t take advantage of it.  We think that changes tonight as the Illini have played very well offensively as well shooting 46% and averaging 77 PPG their last 5.  The Badgers are off back to back huge games vs Michigan & Michigan State, both went to the wire and they lost both.  UW’s offense has not topped 69 points in their last 6 games and they are only averaging 59 PPG their last 5.  While their defense has been very good, we don’t see them completely shutting down Illinois tonight.  We see Wisconsin having a tough time pulling away in a lower scoring type game.  The Badgers should win this one, however we think it will be fairly close.  Take the points.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

These two just met on February 9th with Seton Hall coming away with a 63-58 win.  The Jays offense was outright abysmal in that game yet they still took the Hall to the wire.  Creighton, who ranks 5th nationally in eFG% offense and 9th nationally in 3-point FG%, shot just 30% from the field and only 28% from deep in that game.  They were a ridiculously bad 6 of 22 in that game at the rim (layups) and again, even with that performance, it was a 1-point game with 10 seconds remaining.  The Jays are finally back home after a 3 game road trip that saw them go 0-3.  They hit a shooting slump during that 3 game span, but as stated all were on the road.  Even during their offensive slump, they Blue Jays were competitive during that road trip losing in OT @ Villanova, losing in OT @ Xavier, and then losing @ Seton Hall by 5.  Their defense has been playing very well and keeping them in games.  Now what happens when their offense breaks out and they shoot it like they are capable?  We’d say an easy win and we expect that today.  Creighton shoots much better at home hitting over 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers.  The game before they left on their 3 game road trip the Jays beat Xavier here by 22 points.  Seton Hall has won 3 of their last 4 but all of those wins were at home.  On the road it’s been a different story for this team.  After winning their Big East road opener at Xavier, the Pirates have gone on to lose 5 straight away from home.  They are averaging just 67 PPG on the road while Creighton puts up over 80 PPG at home.  The home team has won 5 straight in this series and the last two games here in Omaha saw the Jays win by 17 & 14 points.  We expect Creighton to break out of their mini slump and shoot very well at home today.  That leads to an easy, quick revenge win over Seton Hall.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both.  We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play).  ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us.  We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73.  We’re back on Arizona State here.  We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State.  They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton.  It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good.  If not, they tend to play down to their competition.  ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah.  In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs.  They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line.  Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game).  That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP.  That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win.  It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it.  The Devils will be ready here.  Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12.  Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon.  Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above).  Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona.  It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona.  This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten.  The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12.  The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now.  We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga.  They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley).  San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few.  So why are they just 5-5 in league play?  Injuries.  Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January.  Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game.  That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters.  They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine.  San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out.  This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season.  BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued.  They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC.  However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight.  The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively.  Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy.  Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13.  Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13.  Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year.  The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego.  This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Ottawa at Detroit, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Senators Craig Anderson would likely have gotten this start in goal tonight but he has been downgraded to doubtful for this game due to an eye injury he suffered in the gym. That means Anders Nilsson will be between the pipes tonight for Ottawa and he is coming off a horrific 3rd period in the loss to Carolina Tuesday that is the type of collapse in a game that can impact the mentality of a netminder in his next start. Nilsson is not the normal #1 for the Sens and he also struggled in his most recent road start. The Senators lost 5-3 at Pittsburgh in the most recent road start for Nilsson. Twice in Nilsson's last 3 road starts Ottawa has given up 4 or more goals. The Senators will be looking to atone for a poor performance against the Hurricanes in the offensive zone Tuesday. Prior to scoring just 1 goal against the Canes, the Sens had scored 4 or more goals in 3 straight games! The Red Wings are off a big dog upset win at Nashville Tuesday as they allowed only 2 goals. However, Detroit had allowed an average of 4 goals per game in their 3 prior games. The Wings have allowed 14 goals in Jimmy Howard's last 4 home starts and he is expected to get the call tonight. The Senators have revenge here and the over is 21-10 this season in their revenge games. Also, Ottawa's O/U is 13-6 this season when they are off a defeat that came by a multi-goal margin. In road games with a total set at 6 or more goals, the Sens O/U is 16-8-1 this season. There have been 7 special teams goals scored in the Red Wings last 4 games. Ottawa's penalty killing unit only killed off 2 of 4 opportunities in the Carolina game. The Senators power play unit however is 2 for 4 on the power play in their last two road games. With special teams and the goalie situation helping us tonight, this one should see 7 or more goals scored! Bet the OVER in Detroit Thursday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 144 Points - Illinois @ Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET

These two met earlier this year and with the total set at 143.5, the final score was OSU 77-67 pushing the game OVER by a half point and landing exactly on the set total for this evening.  However, neither team was special on offense in that game as the two combined to make just 39% of their shots.  From 3-point land the combined to make only 12 of 36 for just 33%.  So how did they get to 144 points in that game?  Free throws were a big factor as they combined to make 46 from the charity stripe.  We don’t expect that to change much tonight as these teams send their opponents to the FT line more than any other in the Big Ten (Illinois ranks 14th in the league and OSU ranks 13th).  However we do expect the other offensive aspects of the game (shooting) to improve from their last meeting.  The Illini are playing very well right now, especially on offense.  They are the fastest paced team in the Big Ten and they have scored 99, 79, 78, 75, and 71 points their last 5 games.  That includes 79 in a win vs Michigan State and 78 in a win over Maryland, the 3rd and 4th most efficient defenses in the Big Ten.  While the Illinois offense is playing the best they have all season, the defense remains an issue.  They put pressure on opponents but they foul A LOT as we mentioned above.  They rank 14th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense, 10th in 3-point FG% defense, 13th in 2-point FG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency.  They allow 76 PPG in conference play which is tied with Iowa for worst in the Big Ten.  OSU is off an offensive clunker @ Indiana on Sunday a game in which they won 55-52.  The Bucks put up only 0.93 points per possession in that game while holding Indiana to a terrible 0.88 PPP.  They should look much better tonight at home where they shoot 48% and average 77 PPG and they are facing the worst defensive team in the conference.  Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 76-68 type win for OSU.  We think both teams eclipse those projected numbers and this goes OVER.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -1 over Arizona State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We were on ASU on Saturday night as they were a small favorite vs an undefeated (in Pac 12 play) Washington.  We thought the game set up very well with ASU coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to Washington St while UW was off a rare win @ Arizona.  On top of that a few of the Husky players were under the weather.  The game worked out as planned with the Devils rolling up a double digit win.  Now off that huge home win we’ll fade them here on the road.  Colorado is playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won 3 straight including back to back road wins @ UCLA & @ USC.  The Buffs have won 4 of their last 6 games and one of their losses came by 2 points to Oregon State in a game they led at half and was back and forth down the stretch.  They could easily on a 5-1 run right now.  CU is 8-2 at home this year and they’ve won 26 of their last 32 games here at the Coors Event Center.  Their offense has been MUCH better at home where they are shooting 49% and scoring 83 PPG and if you remove their one outlier road performance (95 points @ Air Force) the Buffs average just 68 PPG on the road.  Arizona State has been all over the board this year.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State this season.  They’ve also lost to Princeton, Washington State, and Vanderbilt.  Their losses to Princeton & Washington State came after huge wins over Kansas & Arizona.  We see a pattern here and would be surprised if the Sun Devils are at their best tonight after giving Washington their first conference loss.  These two met back in early January and CU played one of their worst games of the season in a 83-61 loss.  The Buffs shot 33% for the game while ASU hit nearly 58% of their shots.  That should give Colorado a little extra motivation tonight.  Just a few weeks ago the Buffs were laying -3 here vs Washington, easily the best team in the Pac 12.  Now they are laying just -1 vs Arizona State.  The host has covered 11 of the last 12 and we like Colorado to pick up another win.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Sacramento +7.5 over Denver, Wednesday at 9:05 PM ET

The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Nuggets have similar numbers defensive when it comes to efficiency ratings, but Denver is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th). Denver had lost 3 in a row on a road trip then came home and caught the Heat in a perfect letdown situation the other night for a solid home win. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 43% shooting. The same can’t be said for Denver who has allowed opponents to hit over 48% of their attempts in their last five. Sacramento hasn’t had much success in Denver, but they are a completely different team right now playing with confidence. Grab the generous points with the Kings who will keep this close throughout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado State +3 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPN2

SDSU is simply not trustworthy as a road favorite.  This team isn’t nearly as good as past editions yet the continue to get respect as if they are.  The Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the road in MWC play with their only win coming @ San Jose State who is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 342nd out of 351).  They have been a terrible road favorite this year as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games outright when laying points on the road.  Their most recent was last week when they were favored in this range @ New Mexico and lost by 13 (we were on New Mexico in that game).  It’s also a bad spot for SDSU as they are off a huge home win over Utah State (2nd ranked team in the MWC) and they have a big home revenger on deck vs Boise State this weekend.  Colorado State is just 4-7 in league play however they’ve faced the toughest schedule in league play.  Nearly half of their games have come against the top 3 teams in the league as they’ve already faced Nevada twice, Fresno twice, and Utah State once.  Of their 7 conference losses, 5 have come against the top 4 teams in the league.  The Rams are 3-2 at home in Mountain West play with their only losses coming to Nevada (best team in the league and one of the best in the nation) and by 2 points to Boise State (5th rated team in the conference).  They’ve also beaten Fresno (8-3 in conference play) here at Moby Arena.  San Diego State is ripe to go down AGAIN as a road favorite and we’ll be on Colorado State in this game. 

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Toronto at Colorado, Tuesday at 9:05 PM ET

The over is 18-4-3 in Frederik Andersen's last 25 starts for Toronto. The Maple Leafs last 12 visits to Colorado have resulted in the over going 9-2-1. Toronto is ready to respond after a loss at New York on Sunday that saw the Maple Leafs pepper the Rangers with shots on goal but only 1 of 56 lit the lamp! The Leafs previously had scored an average of 5 goals per game in their 3 prior games and you can see the 1 goal scored against the Blueshirts was truly an aberration. Toronto continues to give huge effort and should be rewarded for that tonight but the Avalanche are likely to match the Leafs goal for goal. Andersen's last two starts against the Avs have resulted in a pair of Colorado wins with the Avalanche averaging 5 goals per victory! The Avs are off a 2-1 loss at Boston but previously Colorado allowed 4.7 goals per game in their 6 prior games. The Avalanche allowed at least 4 goals in all 6 games! Also, prior to the loss to the Bruins, the Avs had scored 3 goals in 3 straight games. Back on home ice and fighting to stay alive in the playoff race, the Avalanche will give a huge effort here. Couple that with the Leafs also coming in off a low-scoring loss where they certainly deserved better and you have the perfect situation for a barn-burner here in a non-conference match-up with end to end action. The over is 7-2 this season when the Avalanche are off a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. You can see that the Avs should respond tonight. As for the Maple Leafs response, Toronto has had 15 losses this season where they allowed 4 or more goals. After the first 14 of those, the Leafs very next game saw them score an average of 4.5 goals per game. In 10 of the 14 games the Leafs scored at least 4 goals and in only 1 of the 14 did the Maple Leafs fail to score at least 3 goals. The set-up here is ideal for a strong offensive output from BOTH hockey club tonight and each will be relentless with pressure and determination in the offensive zone. Bet the OVER in Colorado Tuesday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -5.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9:00  PM ET

These two met just 2 weeks ago and Bama -2 came out on top 83-79 (we were on Bama in that game).  The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner at home in this one and this has become pretty much a must win spot.  MSU if off 2 straight down to the wire home losses vs two of the top three teams in the SEC.  Last week they lost in OT by 4 points to LSU and over the weekend they were ousted by a red hot Kentucky team by 4 points.  The Bulldogs were in a position to win both of those games but did not.  Now at 4-6 in league play, they need this win for their NCAA hopes.  Mississippi State has lost 4 of their last 6 games but those setbacks were vs Kentucky (twice), LSU, and this Alabama team on the road.  That is a tough stretch and the losses were not surprising.  After this game, MSU leaves for a 2 game road trip after this game so a loss could be devastating.  Bama comes in off 2 straight wins, however unlike MSU playing the top of the conference teams, the Tide beat Georgia & Vandy, the two lowest rated teams in the SEC.  They are 2-5 in road games this season with their only wins coming @ Vandy (lowest rated team in the SEC) and @ Mizzou in OT (4th lowest rated team in the SEC).  This is Alabama’s 2nd road game in 4 days after beating Vanderbilt on Saturday.  The Tide might also be without two key big man reserves tonight (Reese & Smith) who played key roles in their win over MSU a few weeks ago.  We think this sets up very nicely for the Bulldogs and we’ll lay the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Our power ratings have the Terps favored by 1 in this game so we’ll take the value as they are getting 2.5 points.  The closest comparison we can use was when Maryland was at home vs Wisconsin just a few weeks ago and the Terps were favored by -3.5 in that game.  This line is currently a full 6-points from where that line was released despite the fact that the Badgers and Boilers are dead even in our power ratings (even on a neutral court).  Maryland is just happy to be playing a home game (where they are 5-0 SU in Big 10 play) as they’ve been on the road for 5 of their last 6 games.  They’ve played just one home game since January 14th.  The Boilers, on the other hand, have been at home for 3 of their last 4 games.  They have played 5 conference road games this year and they are 3-2 in those games with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime.  However, on the road against the top 6 conference teams, Purdue has a 1-2 record with their only win @ Wisconsin in OT.  Tonight they face the 5th rated Big 10 team on the road and they have faced a top 6 team on the road since January 11th.  Purdue relies too heavily on the 3-pointer (40% of their points which ranks 14th nationally) and too much on 1 player Carsen Edwards.  While they have been very good, we have a feeling those two things will catch up with them on the road vs good teams.  The fact is Maryland is actually a better 3-point shooting team (#1 in the Big Ten at 39.7%) and they are facing a Purdue defense that doesn’t defend the arc very well allowing 37% (12th in the league).  The Terps are also the best rebounding team in the league by quite a large margin (+9 rebound margin) and they have been plus rebounds in every Big Ten game this season.  That should give them extra opportunities at home tonight and if they can slow down Purdue’s perimeter game, they should win this game.  If it comes down to FT’s down the stretch, also keep in mind Maryland is the best FT shooting team in the Big 10 at 76.3%.  These two met in early December when this young Maryland team was still finding their way and they almost pulled the upset in West Lafayette losing by 2.  Tonight they get the home win.  Take Maryland.

ASA play on: #568 Denver Nuggets -9.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – From a scheduling standpoint you couldn’t ask for a better situation to play on Denver and against Miami. The Heat are off a demoralizing loss at Golden State yesterday, playing tonight without rest in the higher altitude and this is their 3rd game in four nights. Denver on the other hand just suffered a 3-game road losing streak and saw their lead over OKC for the second spot in the West shrink to just 1 game and now trail Golden State by 3.  Denver has the leagues best home record of 23-4 SU and the second-best home differential of 12PPG. Prior to beating Portland on this current road trip, the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential (+.4), BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Miami is 4-3 SU when playing the second night of a back to back but this situation is different considering what they are coming off and where they play tonight. Miami was just +13.5 points at Golden State and +7 in Portland so you can see for yourself this line is too low based previous spreads. Denver is nearly equal to Golden State and we feel this line should be -11.5 or -12 at the very least. In fact, the Nuggets were recently -10 against Philly at home and are laying less here. The Nugs are on a 20-8 spread run at home and have covered 4 of their last five versus teams with winning road records. The bet here is clearly Denver!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times.  IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8.  OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6.  The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games.  They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State.  Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing.  IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers.  Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4.  Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska).  The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG.  Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%.  OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team.  The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation.  IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here.  We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win. 

ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN

Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right?  The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4.  We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago.  Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60.  The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game.  It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012.  Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State.  That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances.  This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few.  With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61.  This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington.  We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean.  Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even.  The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be.  As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12.  They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road.  Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed.  The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall.  Take Arizona State at home.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings -3 over Miami Heat, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and we’re not about to abandon them in this situation. Sacramento had won 3 straight at home against Atlanta, Philly and San Antonio before a blowout loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. In other words, two quality wins over playoff teams in the 76ers and Spurs. The letdown game against the Rockets is excusable as the players were dealing with rumors of potential trades, along with a big win over the Spurs in the previous game. Now they are home, off a bad loss against an average team from the East (West has dominated the East overall this season).  Miami meanwhile is coming off a big upset win in Portland as a 7-point underdog. Prior to that win the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential, BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight at home and 10-4 SU their last fourteen with the four losses coming against the best teams in the West (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets).  Easy call here with the Kings at home minus the short number.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET

We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats.  They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5).  They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses.  On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records.  The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC.   Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference.  They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4.  Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate.  The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4.  That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team.  They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee.  The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here.  Cincy is vulnerable on the road.  They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league).  Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it.  The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt

The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion.  They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida).  LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss.  Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4.  Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win.  It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally.  The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost.  We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road.  Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race.   They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday.  The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark.  MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits.  We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in.  Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas.  We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.

ASA play on: OVER 230 Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – This will be the third meeting of the season between these two teams with one game staying Under the total with 219 points, the most recent finished Over with 246 total points. Washington’s defense has been atrocious of late allowing 130 or more points in three of their last five games. Overall the Wizards D (or lack of) is 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.129 points per possession. The Bucks have the best overall DEFF in the NBA at just 1.037PPP. But this game goes Over the total because both teams want to play fast. The Bucks are the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA at 102.9 possessions per game, while the Wizards are the 8th fastest at 101.2. Milwaukee is the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 117.2PPG while the Wiz are 9th at 113.1PPG. We can easily see the Bucks getting to the 130 range here which means the Wizards have to essentially top 100.  Bet the OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135.5 Points - Maryland @ Nebraska, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

These two met in early January and the total was set at 137 and the final score was Maryland 74, Nebraska 72 which eclipsed that total.  Despite that result, this total is set lower than their first meeting which is very interesting and we agree with the move.  We expect a much lower scoring game this time around.  In the first meeting both teams shot fairly well as they combined to make 47% of their shots and 44% of the 3-pointers.  Neither team averages those shooting numbers on the season and the large difference came from deep where Maryland shoots 37% on the season and Nebraska just 34%.  In that game the Terps averaged 1.14 points per possession while Nebraska came in at 1.11.  The Huskers offensive numbers have fallen off drastically over the last few weeks as they have not put up 1.00 points per possession in any of their last 5 games.  They lost a key scorer Isaac Copeland 2 games ago and they have scored 51 vs Wisconsin & 64 vs Illinois (the least efficient defense in the Big Ten) their last 2 games.  Now facing a Maryland defense that ranks 4th in the Big Ten (conference play) allowing opponents to shoot just 41% and also holding opponents to 32% from deep will be a problem for the Huskers.  The Terps also rank 3rd in the Big Ten allowing only 65 PPG.  Despite their struggling offense, Nebraska does get it done on the other end of the court ranking 5th in the league in FG% defense with just 2 of their last 7 opponents topping 70 points.  The Terps offense has gone into a bit of a lull as well averaging just 65 PPG over their last 5.  Neither teams plays at a fast pace with each ranking in the 250 range in adjusted tempo so we don’t expect a large number of possessions in this one.  This one turns into a grinder and goes UNDER the total.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2

The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno).  They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that.  They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State.  The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s.  That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here.  Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State.  The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season.  They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams).  It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59.  Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31.  In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part.  They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58!  That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1.  In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66.  San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot.  SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back  to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite.  Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN

Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU.  They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile.  Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today.  Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at.  KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum.  Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season.  The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage.  This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games.  They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road.  It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury.  The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight.  Take Kansas State.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Vancouver at Washington, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Both teams are off low-scoring losses and that actually sets this one up perfectly to be a high-scoring shootout. One of the keys is that the Canucks are in a back to back and their current back-up goalie, Thatcher Demko, got hurt in the morning skate yesterday. That resulted in Vancouver having to call up Mike DiPietro (from Ottawa of the Ontario Hockey League) to be the back-up. The Canucks want to avoid using DiPietro if they can help it so Jacob Markstrom is expected to get the start again tonight after having played a full game at Philadelphia last night. Not only is this a back to back situation for Markstrom, he has produced an interesting stat this season. When he plays with 3 or more days of rest between games he is a fantastic 9-1-2 with a 2.04 GAA and .934 save percentage. However, anytime Markstrom plays with 2 or less days of rest he is 10-13-3 with a 3.15 GAA and .897 save percentage. Big difference as you can see and there is also a noteworthy stat relating to Washington's goalie for tonight's game as well. Braden Holtby is 4-9 with a poor .871 save percentage in non--conference games this season. The over is 10-2-1 in his non-conference starts! The over is 14-6-2 in all of the Capitals games against Western Conference opponents this season. Also, the Capitals are 6-0 to the over in Tuesday games this season. Vancouver is 36-22-5 to the over when off a game in which they were held to 1 goal or less. The Capitals are off a 1-0 shutout loss but their 4 prior games not only went over the total, the games averaged a total of 10.5 goals per game. This should be a very entertaining non-conference match-up played at strong tempo Tuesday night. The Canucks Alex Edler injury from last night also leaves their defense short-handed tonight. Bet the OVER in Washington early Tuesday evening.

ASA play on: #542 Sacramento Kings +2 over San Antonio Spurs, 10PM ET – We’ve won a lot this year playing on the Kings and will add to your bankroll with another wager on them tonight. Sacramento is a young, fun and exciting team on the rise in the NBA this season. The Kings sit 9th in the West and are just 1-game behind the Clippers for the 8th and final playoff spot. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home on the season and have won 6 straight on their own floor. Prior to the 6-game home winning streak they had lost two games to the Warriors and Nuggets (arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA) by 4-point each. Now they face a Spurs team that is just 10-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is right around the league average. Not to mention, that most of the Spurs 10 road wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league. In fact, only 3 of the Spurs 10 road wins came against teams with winning overall records. San Antonio is just 4-3 ATS as a small favorite in this price range, the Kings are 6-3 ATS as a small dog in this price range. Sacramento keeps the positive momentum rolling after a big home win over the 76ers on Saturday with another home win here. Take Sacramento!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 136 Points - Louisville @ Virginia Tech, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - On ESPN

After the game Va Tech played on Saturday, we had a feeling this total would be set too low and then bet under by many anyway.  That’s exactly what happened.  This total should be 140 according to our power ratings yet it opened 137.  It has since been bet down to 136 as of this writing early on Monday afternoon.  I’m sure you are all aware of the Va Tech – NC State game over the weekend.  If not, the final score was Va Tech 47, NC State 24.  Yes that was the final score.  The Wolfpack made just 9 field goals for the game in 54 shot attempts!  From beyond the arc they were 2 of 28.  The Hokies weren’t a whole lot better making 16 of their 45 shots.  The two teams combined to make only 12 FT’s.  It was just one of those games more so than a great defensive performance.  The fact is VT hasn’t been a great defense in ACC play.  Even with Saturday’s performance they rank 8th in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% defense.  They actually have better numbers offensively in ACC play ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and #1 in eFG%.  They have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their 9 ACC games.  If you throw out last Saturday’s result, which was an aberration, VT’s total points scored in their other ACC games was 185, 158, 152, 147, 143, 134, and 101.  That last number (101) was vs Georgia Tech who has a very solid defense but the worst offense in the ACC (15th in the conference in offensive efficiency).  Now Tech will face a Louisville offense that ranks 2nd in the ACC in offensive efficiency.  The Cards are averaging 77 PPG on the road this year and they’ve scored at least 79 points in 7 of their 9 ACC games.  This line, as we mentioned, has been over adjusted too much.  Last year these two met twice and the totals were set at 152 & 148.5.  This has been a higher scoring with 4 of the last 5 meetings going OVER as they combined to score 184, 180, 174, 143, and 141 in their 5 meetings since they began their ACC series.  As you can see, any of those outputs go over this number fairly easily.  We realize VT’s Robinson is out tonight but we still think this is set too low.  Take the OVER.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 56.5 Points - New England vs LA Rams, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

Rams defense has been great in the post-season.  They have allowed just 98 yards rushing in two games against 2 of the better running teams in the NFL (Cowboys & Saints).  They held both teams under 2.3 YPC.  During regular season Rams allowed 6 YPP but in playoffs just 5 YPP.  They held Dallas to 22 points and a very potent New Orleans offense to just 23 points last week on the road.  New England has shut down 2 of the better offenses down in the 1st half holding Chargers to 7 points and KC scoreless.  We expect Belichick will have a game plan to slow down the Rams offense early as well.  In those match ups the Pats got out to big leads and forced the opposing offenses to play hurry up and catch up which resulted in some higher scoring 2nd halves.  We don’t see that happening here.  We see a close game (6 of New England’s last 8 Super Bowls have been decided by 4 points or less) with the defenses controlling the tempo.  Another key here is we expect both teams to rely heavily on the run.  The Pats have averaged 41 carries per game in their 2 playoff wins while LA has averaged 37 carries per game in their 2 playoff games.  Both teams have solid kickers that can make them from 50+ in the dome so we think both will settle for FG’s rather than being overly aggressive and going for it on 4th down.  These two QB’s have only thrown 3 TD passes combined in their 4 post-season games (Brady 2 & Goff 1).  With think this game will start slow offensively with a low scoring first half.  If the game stays close as we expect, we just don’t see either team going wild on offense in the 2nd half.  We look for both defenses to play well and control the tempo and we’ll lean UNDER in the Super Bowl

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH

These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss.  The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog.  It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points.  Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place.  They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team.  Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for.  This is the Birds biggest home game of the season.  Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.  They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season.  Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season.  They want this one badly.  ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup.  They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG).  They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season.  The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6).  They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48).  Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively.  Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode.  Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games.  It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2.  We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.

ASA 10* play on: OVER 234 Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00PM ET – We get two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA in this matchup with the 76ers averaging 101.8 possessions per game (7th) while the Kings are 2nd at 103.4 possessions per contest. That means we get an up-and-down affair with two teams that want to transition. The Kings average 21.4PPG fastbreak points per game (1st) while the 76ers average 15.5 (9th) fastbreak points per game. The 76ers are better defensively, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency but the Kings are 21st. This will be a sneaky great game tonight that will end with 240 or more total points. BET OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET

These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road.  That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings.  The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining.  UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots.  Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line.  The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team.  That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then.  In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team.  They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting.  Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%.  The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG.  UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots.  The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG.  UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass.  Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here.  The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation.  We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.

ASA play on: UNDER 215.5 Boston Celtics @ NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET – The Knicks just made their blockbuster move by trading Porzingis to the Mavs to free up cap space for next summer’s free agents.  That deal will have an impact on tonight’s game as New York loses 35PPG with Tim Hardaway Jr, Trey Burke and Courtney Lee also leaving for Dallas. The Knicks won’t have DeAndre Jordan tonight and newly acquired Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr are questionable. Even if they do play how acclimated will they be to the Knicks offense and other players? New York is already the 4th least efficient offense in the NBA this year and they average just 1.058 points per possession. The Knicks are 12th in pace of play but again, they don’t score a lot of points because they are not efficient. Boston is 20th in tempo or pace by averaging 99.3 possessions per game. They have the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league by allowing just 1.056PPP. Boston has a much bigger game on deck against the Thunder so don’t expect them to be interested in playing an up-and-down affair against the lowly Knicks. The Celtics are 5-2 Under their last five road outings against teams with worse than .400. The Knicks are on a 5-0 overall Under run, 5-0 Under versus the East their last five.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH

We love the way this one sets up.  WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA.  They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion.  They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now.  If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league.  They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss.  They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily.  It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA.  The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY.  That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers.  Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play.  Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half  (7) of the league.  Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss.  One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1.  We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least.  Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play.  They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB.  UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem.  The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight.  We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.

ASA play on: UNDER Utah Jazz @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:30PM ET – This will be the fourth and final meeting of the regular season for these two teams and the first three meetings all finished with less points than tonight’s Total. Those games finished with 213, 213 and 210 total points. Tonight’s game has all the feel of a playoff like atmosphere with these two teams jockeying for position in the West. Granted, scoring is way up this year in the NBA but in the last ten meetings these two teams have not combined for more than 215 total points and that game was an over-time affair. Portland has recently played in some higher scoring games but those came against some of the fastest paced teams in the NBA. That’s not the case tonight as these two teams are both in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to tempo or pace. Portland’s overall strength is their offense but defense is Utah’s strength so those essentially cancel each other out. The Blazers recent trend is Under when playing a team with an above .500 record with a 5-0 run. The Jazz have that exact same record of 5-0 Under when playing a winning team too. The numbers all point towards a lower scoring game here in the 210 range. BET UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion.  They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play.  The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice.  They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston.  This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road.  Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year.  They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season.  The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend.  Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%.  Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep.  Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally).  They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally.  Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road.  Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games.  Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits.  We like Tulsa getting points at home here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

This is a massively important game for Butler.  They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East.  They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton.  The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion.  They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette.  Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season.  They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th.  They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year.  Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting.  After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight.  However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East.  Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings.  On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win.  The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot.  They have very little inside game.  36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play.  The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench.  Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here.  The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette.  We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team.  That should tell you something.  Butler is the side here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry.  Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so.  However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home.  They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road.  They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point.  Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance.  UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play.  They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play.  The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points.  They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well.  They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC.  While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league).  UNLV should be able to take advantage of that.  This line is too high in our opinion.  Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St).  Those results set this one up nicely for the home team.  Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5.  Now they are laying nearly double digits.  Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday.  So Kentucky’s the play here right?  It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle.  First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite.  Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here.  In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game.  Not once.  Their biggest lead was 11.  Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena.  UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend.  Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck.  Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU.  In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT.  This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky.  This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits.  Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here.  We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win.  The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend.  Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining.  The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark.  Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor.  It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition.  Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama.  They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next.  The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here.  They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago.  The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy.  MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field.  We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding).  They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc.  We really like Alabama in this spot.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons +8 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – The Bucks are coming off a loss in Oklahoma City and haven’t lost two consecutive games this season. BUT they must win this game by 8 or more points, and we don’t think they’ll do that. Let’s talk about value here first. The Bucks hosted the Pistons on January 1st and were -10 points at home. In mid-December the Bucks were a -3-point favorite in Detroit and won 107-104. You can see for yourself the over-adjustment the oddsmakers have made on tonight’s number. Milwaukee also has a MUCH bigger game on deck in Toronto and may get caught looking past a team they just beat by 23 a few weeks ago. Detroit is well rested here with their last game being on January 25th in Dallas. They are 21-27 SU on the season and It’s becoming a dire situation if they want to make the playoffs this season. Of their 27 losses this season, fourteen have come by 8 or less points. They have an overall negative differential of -2.6PPG on the season, +.1 at home. The Bucks have failed to cover 4 straight games which is a sign the lines are catching up to them. The Pistons are the play here and they will get their 7th cover in their last nine games.

ASA play on: OVER 231.5 Atlanta Hawks vs L.A. Clippers, 10:30PM ET – We used Under on the Clippers game yesterday and either pushed or won that wager but will flip here and play OVER tonight against the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season, allowing 1.124 points per possession which is 24th in the NBA. The Clippers aren’t much better as they give up 1.111PPP which ranks 22nd. The Hawks have given up 120 or more points in 5 of their last seven contests. Atlanta is the fastest paced team in the NBA and they’ll look to play up-tempo tonight against the Clippers who are playing the second night of a back-to-back. When in this scheduling situation (playing without rest) the Clippers are 6-2 to the Over and those games have averaged 236 total points per game. When playing at home the Clippers games have averaged 225 total points per game and now, they face the fastest paced team that doesn’t play defense. L.A. is also a top 10 team in terms of tempo, so they’ll gladly play the Hawks tempo. Our Math Model projects 237 or more total points.

ASA 10* play on UNDER 210 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls, 3:30PM ET – Yes, we know this is not a marquee game on Sunday and not a contest many will want to watch but we’re more concerned about winning than who’s playing. These two teams have stopped “tryin” for “Zion” and are clearly playing for the #1 pick in next year’s draft. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these two teams and all three thus far have finished with less than today’s Total of 210. They’ve scored 192, 204 and 197 total points in the three clashes. They are two of the slowest teams in the NBA with the Cavs being the second slowest and the Bulls being the 9th slowest. Chicago is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings while the Cavaliers are the 8th worst in that same category. In other words, both play very slow and they have a hard time scoring points. Did we mention they are 28th and 29th (out of 30) ranked teams in the NBA when it comes to EFG percentage. Both teams have several key injuries to starters so we can’t see them topping 205 total points in this contest. BET UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record.  Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record.  The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops.  That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers.  This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above.  That’s too easy.  While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall.  Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home.  They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season.  Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home.  Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago.  Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home.  First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago.  Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch.  That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win.  Both teams took 64 shots and made 31.  Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona).  The rebounds were pretty much dead even.  The difference?  Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona.  We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield.  The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.

ASA 10* play on: OVER 228 Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – We’ve made mention of this several times and will revisit again here. The Hawks are the fastest paced teams in the NBA at 104.4 possessions per game. They are one of the worst defensive efficiency teams in the league ranking 26th. In other words, they want to play fast which is added scoring opportunities AND they allow their opponents to score a ton of points. That’s perfect against this Portland team that is average in pace of play and defense, but they have the 8th most efficient offensive in the NBA at 1.124 points per possession. The Blazers have played some similar teams to the Hawks in terms of pace of play recently and those games ended with some very high totals. The Hawks have allowed 113 or more points in 6 of their last seven with only the lowly Bulls managing 101 in their most recent game. In five of their last nine games the Trailblazers have scored 120+. Based on rest and the scheduling situation we predict a very high scoring game here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET

The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win.  In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games.  They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71.  Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game.  Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference.  No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play.  Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up.  This is a must win for Stanford.  They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion.  First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida.  Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego.  In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference.  Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal.  One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall.  It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving.  CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire.  Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford).  We really like the match for Stanford as well.  Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc.  The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference).   On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league).  This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win.  Take Stanford.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record.  That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now.  They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant.  They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points.  The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire.  This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here.  They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year).  Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year.  UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion.  The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road.  They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night.  Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday.  Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one.  These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU.  The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one.   UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average).  The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET

This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation.  There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU.  The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season.  They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76.  It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4.  We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title.  Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points).  Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide).  That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels.  Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents.  They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc).  That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to.  Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team.  The Rebs dominated that game 82-67.  Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points - Butler @ Creighton, Friday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

These two met a few weeks ago and Butler topped the Blue Jays 84-69.  That game totaled 153 points which is the exactly where this total is set.  This one opened 156 and has dropped most likely due to the results of the first game.  Now that it’s down in the 153 range will jump on the OVER.  These two teams are very adept at shooting the 3-pointer with Creighton ranking 4th nationally making 42% of their shots from deep while Butler is no slouch hitting 37% which is 46th nationally.  Not only do they both shoot it well, they both shoot the 3 a lot with Creighton ranking 7th in point distribution from deep while Butler ranks 54th.  As we mentioned above, these two teams got to this total (153) a few weeks ago however they shot very poor from 3-point land in that game combining to make just 18 of 57 attempts (31%).  You see where we’re going here.  Even though neither team came near the percentage they normally shoot from beyond the arc, they still made it to tonight’s posted total.  Neither team defends the arc very well with Creighton ranking 304th in 3-point percentage allowed and the Bulldogs rank 173rd in that category.  We have to assume they will shoot much better tonight which should push this OVER the total.  When Creighton plays at home, they shoot it so well (51% overall & 46% from deep) that teams have to score points to keep up because it’s very difficult to slow them down.  They Jays average 85 PPG at home and in their two Big East home tilts they’ve combined to score 168 vs Villanova and 210 in OT (170 in regulation) vs Marquette.  In their 10 home games overall this season they Blue Jays have averaged 161 combined points.  Based on the spread, the oddsmakers expect a final score of 78-75 in this game.  However, the winning team in Creighton games has reached at least 80 points in 15 of their last 16 games.  They only game the winner didn’t reach 80 was when the faced Providence and that final was 79-68.  We have to think, based on those numbers, that at least one of these teams get to 80 points and we wouldn’t be shocked if both topped 80.  Butler has reached at least 151 combined points in 7 of their 8 Big East games so it’s not all Creighton here.  We look for a high scoring game that goes OVER tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a revenger from a game played @ St Marys back on January 5th.  The Gaels were favored by 6 in that game and now favored on the road just a few weeks later.  Based on that first number, BYU should be a 2 point favorite here.  The first game was an 88-66 blowout win for St Marys which is a contributing factor to why they are now favored on the road.  The loss should have BYU extra motivated here as they played very poorly shooting just 40% from the field (55% for St Marys) and just 6 of 17 from 3-point land.  After losing their WCC opener @ San Francisco, the Gaels have ripped off 4 straight wins – 3 of those coming at home.  Their only road win in conference play was @ Loyola Marymount who is 2-3 in league play.  Overall St Marys is just 1-2 in true road games and 3-5 in road/neutral games.  BYU is 9-1 at home and just happy to be back at the Marriott Center as 7 of their last 9 games have been played away from home.  The Cougs are 4-2 in WCC play and this is a huge game for them kicking off a 3 game homestand which includes a date with Gonzaga.  They are winning their home games by an average score of 83-67 and they really step in up defensively at the Marriott Center holding opposing teams to just 39% from the field.  Provo has proven to be a very tough place for teams to come in and win as BYU has won 37 of their last 40 games here.  It’s not often we get BYU as a home dog and we’ll jump on it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CONERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH

These two teams have very similar records with Western Kentucky coming in at 10-9 (3-3 on Conference USA play) while Southern Miss sits at 11-8 (3-4 in CUSA play).  However, we feel WKY is the much better team and we’re getting some solid value laying only a point or two in this game.  Western’s 3 conference losses have come by 1, 1, and 3 points.  Two of those losses came at the hands for Old Dominion (rated #1 in CUSA) & Marshall (#4 in CUSA), two of the top 4 teams in CUSA (Western is the #2 rated team in the conference).  USM’s conference losses have come by 18, 15, 8, and 3 points.  The Eagles wins have come by 3, 5, and 7 points with two of those games played against Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte, two of the three teams in CUSA.  Southern Miss has 11 wins as we mentioned however ZERO of those wins have come against teams ranked inside the top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team ranked inside the top 150 and that game took place on November 11th (win over SMU).  Nine of their eleven wins have come against teams ranked 200 or lower including 3 vs non-division 1 opponents who are not ranked at all.  The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have beaten Wisconsin, St Marys, Arkansas (on the road) and West Virginia (neutral site).  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency in conference games) over the Eagles who are a poor defensive team (13th in CUSA defensive efficiency in conference games).  WKY should also have a large advantage on the boards as USM is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.  The Eagles are the shortest team in the nation with only one regular contributor taller than 6’5.  Their rebounding margin in their 7 conference game is -36 while WKY is +36 on the boards in their 6 league games.  Western has dominated this series winning 4 straight all by double digits including last year’s wins by 16 & 17 points.  Southern Miss has not had a big home court advantage with a record of just 20-18 SU @ Reed Coliseum since the start of the 2016 season (minus non-division 1 opponents).  Because of USM’s +.500 record this year vs terrible competition, we’re getting WKY as the lowest number they’ve laid in this series since 2013.  Hilltoppers cruise here.      

ASA play on: Over 223 Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Strong indicators suggest Over in this game between the Hawks and Bulls Wednesday night. More tickets have been bet on the Under, yet the number has risen steadily throughout the day. These are two of the worst teams in the NBA but they’ll score points here. Both have played tough schedules so their season statistics are worse than they should be. The Hawks want to play fast, they are the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season at 104.6 possessions per game. Chicago is slightly below average in terms of pace at 98.7 but they’ve played Over in 7 of their last nine games, mainly due to a horrible defense. Chicago has given up 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, 117 plus in 6 of nine. The Bulls are 22 of 30 teams in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.115 points per possession. Atlanta is even worse defensively allowing 117.8PPG on the year with a DEFF rating of 1.124PPP (26th). The Hawks have allowed 120+ in 4 of their last five games. This total is slightly higher than league average (221) so it’s not like we’re asking these two teams to score more points than normal. We’ll go against public money here and BET OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UMass -3.5 over St Bonaventure, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

A few weeks ago we grabbed St Bonnies at home vs St Joes as a Top Play and the Bonnies won in a rout.  We felt they were undervalued as their record was poor but they were getting some players back and finally at full strength.  Since that win they are just 1-2 with their only win coming against Fordham who is 0-5 in league play.  The Bonnies also now have some more injurie issues and they are in a terrible situational spot here.  They are coming off a double OT loss at home on Saturday to Dayton.  It was a game St Bonaventure led by 10 in the 2nd half and felt they should have won making this an emotionally tough spot for them on the road.  They were down 2 starters in that game (Kaputo & Poyser) both with concussion issues leaving this team very thin.  They have almost no bench right now leaving their starters to play 50, 48, 47, 46, and 35 minutes on Saturday.  On top of that the Bonnies are 0-6 this year in true road games and if you add in their neutral site games, they are 1-9.  They are also 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 true road games.  UMass is 0-5 in league play yet favored by 3.5 here which is a buy sign in our opinion.  They are better than their A10 record as they’ve been very competitive with some of the top teams in the league losing by 3 @ St Louis (currently 5-0 in first place in A10), by 5 @ Dayton (4-1 in the A10), and by 5 to a red hot George Mason team (5-1 in the A10).  The Minutemen have been competitive against the best teams in the league and they’ve played the toughest conference schedule already having faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic 10. This is now a huge home game for them as they see an opportunity for their first win in conference play.  Lay the small number with UMass here. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams.  That’s what we have here.  The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels.  Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that.  That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing.  However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama.  We are in that group as well.  This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide.  They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win.  Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here.  Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona.  Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset.  The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee.  Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss.  A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits.  Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight.  Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday.  Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight.  He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field.  In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field.  He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot.  He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength.  The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100.  They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them.  The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.

ASA play on: UNDER 227 Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – We always like to be opposite of the public which is the case on this Under as more tickets have been placed on the Over and yet the line has dropped. There is a lot of value in this number too as these same two teams squared off on January 4th with a Total set of 223.5. They combined for 220 total points which would be fine with us tonight and get us the money. Let’s address the Thunder’s current 6-1 Over run which may concern the casual bettor. In five of their last seven games the Thunder have faced some of the fastest paced teams in the NBA. In fact, five of those teams rank 12th or faster in the entire league and two of those games were against the fastest and second fastest paced teams in the league. Tonight the Thunder get the Blazers who are the 19th slowest paced team in the league. OKC has the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers at home and overall on the season allowing just 1.049 points per possession. Portland has been on a strong road Under run recently with 8 of their last ten road contests staying below the Total and all 8 finished with less points than tonight’s number. The clincher for us is how these teams do when coming off a game the night before. When playing without rest the Thunder average 215 total points per game while Portland games average 208PPG. Both of those numbers get us an easy win here. The Under is 4-1 the last five meetings. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: #526 Portland Trailblazers +5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – Let’s double up on our NBA profits today with a late game winner on this Western Conference showdown. Earlier today we cashed with a wager on the Under in the Pistons vs. Wizards game. We like the Blazers here for several reasons including double-revenge from two losses to the Jazz in late December. Portland is playing well right now have faced a tough schedule coming into this game. In their last four games on the road the Blazers have gone 2-2 SU with wins at the Warriors and Kings, two losses in Denver by 3 and at Sacramento by 8. In the game at Denver they were +4.5 points and at the time the Nuggets had the best overall record in the West. Now they are catching more points against the 7th seed Jazz? The over-correction by the oddsmakers is due to the Blazers current 6-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled by that number. Utah’s last six wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (Cavs and Bulls), a 19-win Magic team, a 20-win Pistons team, the Lakers without LeBron and the Clippers. We’re not impressed. The Jazz have some injuries at guard right now which is a strength for the Blazers with Lillard and McCollum, who combined average 46PPG, over 8 RPG and nearly 9 assists per game. The Blazers are quietly on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with plenty of motivation here after a pair of losses late last month. Grab the points!

ASA play on: OVER 221.5 L.A. Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET – The value with this bet is obvious as they just met a few weeks back and Vegas had a total set of 226 on the game. That contest finished with 233 total points scored and this game will be similar. In their last five games the Clippers defense has allowed 118.4PPG with opponents making nearly 48% of their FG attempts. L.A. is the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA and will look to push the tempo here. San Antonio doesn’t play as fast as the Clippers but they are much more efficient offensively averaging 1.130 points per possession (6th best in NBA). Surprisingly, the Spurs are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings as are the Clippers. Two of the three meetings this season have gone Over the Total as have 5 of the last six. Bet OVER the total here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 149 Points - South Dakota @ Nebraska Omaha, Sunday at 7:00 PM ET

UNO is the most efficient offense in the Summit League and they play fast.  The Mavs have scored at least 80 points in every league game and they’ve topped 90 in three of their five Summit League games.   Going back even further Nebraska Omaha has scored at least 80 in 8 straight games.  They are facing a South Dakota defense that has allowed at least 70 points in all 5 of their Summit League games.  Now they face the #1 offense in the league and a team that shoots nearly 52% from the field at home.  We expect UNO to put up at least 80 here.  Defensively, Omaha is bad.  While they can score points, they also can’t stop anybody.  They rank 323rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 330th in eFG% defense.  The Mavs allow 80 PPG on the season.  In conference play they are allowing 82 PPG and 4 of the 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 239th or lower in efficiency.  In other words, everyone is scoring on Omaha.  This total is set at 149 which means the oddsmakers are looking for a 77-72 type final score.  We just don’t see it being that low scoring.  As we stated we expect Omaha to get to at least 80 and we wouldn’t be surprised if South Dakota pushed upper 70’s to low 80’s here.  This is the lowest total set in this series in the last 10 meetings.  These to have topped 150 in 6 of their last 7 meetings.  Another high scoring game here and we take the OVER here.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS).  We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday.  Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat.  LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff.  That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground.  In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday.  That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that.  If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long.  Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career.  The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games.  Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road).  The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games).  They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game.  We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch.  If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games.  Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards).  We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit.  The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more.  Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game.  It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday.  Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in.  This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team.  They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road.  Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog.  After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well.  They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT.  WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half.  They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9).  They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record.  The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win.  That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column.  We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati.  They are not playing at the top of their game right now.  After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games.  They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home.  Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above.  They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG.  Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to.  This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog.  The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog.  They do the same here.  Wichita pulls the upset.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: NY Islanders at Washington, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Islanders are now coached by Barry Trotz. The former Capitals coach left Washington just a few weeks after leading them to the Stanley Cup Championship in June. This will be his first return trip to DC since becoming coach of the Islanders. Suffice to say emotions will be running high and we expect plenty of goals in this one. The Islanders tried to play their "style" when these teams met in New York earlier this season and it did not work out for them as they lost 4 to 1. This game will play out quite differently with more shots on goal and plenty of quality scoring chances. Considering the goaltending situation for this one, those quality chances are likely to lead to plenty of goals. Braden Holtby might finally be back in the crease tonight for the Caps but he is returning from an eye injury and is likely to be a little rusty and not necessarily 100% comfortable yet after taking a stick to the eye recently against Columbus. As for the Islanders netminding situation, they are in the 2nd game of a back to back and that means Thomas Greiss is likely to get the start. He is the back-up netminder for New York and each of his last 4 starts have resulted in games totaling at least 6 goals every single time. The Caps back-up, whom could get the start again tonight here is Phoenix Copley. He has struggled badly in recent appearances. Copley's last 3 starts have resulted in Capitals opponents totaling 14 goals! As we noted above, the prior game this season totaled 5 goals and that resulted in an under. However, the 4 prior meetings went 3-1 to the over with the 3 overs averaging a total of 8.7 goals per game. The Capitals have had 2 days off since wrapping up a 3-game losing streak in which they scored a total of only 4 goals. Washington is hungry to get back on track and will be very aggressive in the offensive zone tonight. The Islanders seek revenge after scoring just 1 goal on their home ice in the first meeting between these teams this season. New York enters this game playing their best hockey of the season. The Islanders have won 13 of their last 16 games and have scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in those 16 games. The Capitals are averaging 3.4 goals per game this season and you can see why the forecast we have for this game is that it will end with no less than 7 goals being scored! Bet the OVER tonight.

ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for OSU.  They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0.  Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game.  OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State.  The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win.  The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU.  Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year.  They play very hard and play excellent defense.  Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road.  They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs).  Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game.  Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them.  This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins.  They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3.  Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game.  Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win.  Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt.  Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here.  This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do.  Take the Buckeyes.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 164.5 Points - IUPUI @ UW Green Bay, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET

UWGB is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation (8th nationally in tempo) and IUPUI loves to play fast as well (87th in tempo).  The Phoenix average 80 possessions per game (5th nationally) and IUPUI averages 74 possessions per game.  While that comes out to 154 possessions, those numbers include games vs slower paced teams so we expect more than 154 possessions in this game.  If those numbers turn out to be accurate, we’ll need these teams to average just a bit more than 1.00 point per possession which we expect them to easily accomplish.  Both have poor defenses with UWGB ranking 295th in adjusted defensive efficiency and IUPUI comes in at 212th in that category.  They also both tend to send their opponents to the line a lot which rolls up free points with the clock stopped.  In UWGB games, at least one team has reached 90 or more points in 5 straight games.  The Phoenix defense has allowed 91 PPG in their 5 Horizon League contests.  Even UW Milwaukee, who ranks 253rd nationally in scoring put up 82 points on Green Bay.  On a points per possession basis, the GB defense has allowed 1.23, 1.28, 1.14, 1.18, and 1.14 PPP in their Horizon League games.  On offense they’ve averaged 88 PPG in those 5 conference games and put up well over 1.00 PPP in each.  As we stated above IUPUI’s defense isn’t much better as they’ve allowed 77 PPG in their 5 league games.  Offensively they’ve been a bit more up and down, however when the Panthers play fast paced teams with below average defenses they have put points on the board.  In this one, IUPUI will absolutely have to score points to keep and and they will against a bad GB defense.  These two teams have combined to play 32 games and 22 of those have gone OVER the total.  With this spread sitting at GB -3 and a total of 164.5 or 165, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 84-81 or somewhere in that vicinity.  We expect at least one of these teams to push 90 or break that barrier with the other at least in the 80’s  OVER is the wager here.

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Calgary Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Sabres are on a Western Canada road swing and playing for the 4th time in 6 nights. Buffalo enters this game having lost 3 straight. The Flames scheduling situation is much better as they are on home ice and playing for the first time since Sunday! Calgary enters this game having won 7 of their past 8 games. The Flames have scored an average of 5 goals per game during this red hot 8-game stretch. Of course that is part of the reason that Calgary is a 2 to 1 money line favorite on home ice for this one. That said, the way to get value out of a situation like this is with the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Flames bettors get a plus money return of approximately +120 with Calgary. The Sabres have scored an average of just 2 goals per game in their last 9 games. Seeing the numbers above it is no wonder as to why our math modeling is projecting a dominating 5-2 home win for the Flames in this one. Calgary is one of the top teams in the NHL and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. The Sabres had a hot streak earlier this season that was quite exciting for Buffalo of course. However, reality is now setting in as normalcy has returned for Buffalo. The Sabres have lost 15 of their last 21 games. Buffalo's last 11 losses have come by an average margin of 2.2 goals per game and another loss by a multiple-goal margin is in the forecast here. The Flames last 9 wins have come by an average margin of 2.7 goals per game. In road games with an O/U of 6 or more goals, the Sabres have lost 14 of their last 17 games. The Flames have won 5 of 6 games this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and Calgary has won 10 of 13 games this season when coming off a divisional game. We predict this one turns into a home blowout. Laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money return with Calgary is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State  +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice.  They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire.  Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points.  Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here.  Getting points will be valuable.  ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points.  Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining.  This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference.  We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion.  They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night.  The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting.  Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight.  ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more.  We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one.  That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency).  They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games.  We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers.  We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week.  Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck.  Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday.  They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight.  On top of that, this team struggles on the road.  They have played just 2 true road games  this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points.  They were FAVORED in both.  They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots.  Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games.  They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts.  A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend.  In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1.  They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home.  Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost.  The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home.  Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion.  We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes.  Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record.  The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win.  We expect they’ll play very well in this game.  The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland.  Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league.  Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season.  The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home.  We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook.  That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team.  The Hawks did come from 7 points  down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits.  The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season.  Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU.  The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark.  Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday.  The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games.  PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One

Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion.  Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end.  They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton.  Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle.  First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime.  Not once.  On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds.  Yes you read that correctly.  Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation.  We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close).  Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year.  They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games.  They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots!  The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that.  Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points.  They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again.  The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games.  Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles.  G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year.  Hoyas in this one outright.

NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 130.5 Points - Wisconsin @ Maryland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One

This total opened 137 and we were considering a small play on the OVER at that point.  Now that it has dropped all the way to 131 as of this writing, we’ll definitely jump on this one and play the OVER.  These are two solid shooting teams who are very efficient offensively.  The Badgers shoot 49% on the season while Maryland has hit 48% of their shots.  Both rank in the top 27 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  Many think of Wisconsin as a low scoring team but that’s really not the case.  They are averaging 75 PPG on the season while the Terps average 77 PPG.  Sure they’ve both had a few stinkers offensively but for the most part these two teams have put points on the board.  Maryland has put up at least 74 points in 7 straight games.  They’ve been held under 70 points in just 3 of their 17 games this season and they are the only team to post 70+ this year vs Virginia who ranks 1st in the nation in scoring defense.  The Badgers have played 16 games and been held under 70 points just 5 times.  Both defenses have had some very good performances, however when they’ve faced good offenses they have given up points.  Wisconsin has played 6 top 50 offenses (adjusted efficiency) and they are allowing 70 PPG on those contests.  Maryland has also faced 6 top 50 offenses and they are giving up 71 PPG in those games.  Where this line and total sit, the expected outcome is right around 67-64 in favor of Maryland.  We think at least one of these two teams and possibly both get to 70 which will be enough to push this game OVER the total.

UNDER 217 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET – Our math model projects less than 210 total points in this game and we couldn’t agree more. On the season these two teams are both slower than league averages with Portland ranking as the 13th slowest paced team in the league, Denver is the 4th slowest. In their most recent five games the Blazers have slowed to the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.8 possessions per game while the Nuggets are the 2nd slowest at 96.5 possessions. Last year when these two teams squared off in Denver they produced totals of just 170 and 205. The Blazers defense has been solid their last five games with the 7th best defensive efficiency numbers (1.066PPP) over that span of games. On the season the Nuggets are a top 10 defensive efficiency unit allowing just 1.078PPP, and they are better at home allowing just 1.049PPP. The Nugs are coming off a game last night in Phoenix and when they’ve played without rest this season their games have stayed below the number 5 of six times. Portland has played in two straight higher scoring games but they came at home against bad defenses. Different story here…BET UNDER!