ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10  of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win.  

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Carolina over Washington, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

It is difficult to go up 3-0 on a team in a series and this is particularly true on the road. The Islanders managed to pull it off yesterday at Pittsburgh but we don't expect a repeat here. The only other series that is 3-0 is the Blue Jackets / Lightning shocker and Columbus was at home for yesterday's game to make it 3-0. As noted, that entire series has been a shocker. With 5 of the other 7 series guaranteed to be 2-1 the odds certainly are in favor of that being the case here as well. The Hurricanes outshot the Capitals 29-18 in Game 1 but lost. Then they lost Game 2 in overtime. The fact is that Carolina has been "right there" with Washington ever since that ugly first period in Game 1 but they have nothing to show for it. Look for the Hurricanes to make up for that here as they've been playing better than the 0-2 series deficit shows. Carolina has won 15 of its last 21 home games. Washington is 19-21 (-7.4 units) this season after game in which they scored 4 or more goals. The Hurricanes have been very strong on home ice as that 15 of 21 record reflects and the home fans have waited a long time for this playoff opportunity and it will be a great atmosphere for the home team in this one. Carolina's power play is 3 for 4 in its last two home games. Washington's power play has been held without a goal in 8 of its last 10 games. Bet Carolina in early evening NHL action Monday.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG.  The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version.  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts.

ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET

This is a battle of southpaws Friday night in Seattle as the Mariners Wade LeBlanc goes to battle with the Astros Wade Miley. We don't expect either pitcher to fare well in this match-up. Houston is hitting .308 against lefties this season and that ranks them #1 in the American League. The Mariners slugging percentage is an incredible .663 against left-handed hurlers this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Astros bats are heating up as they've won 6 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Seattle sticks have been red hot all season and continue to show no signs of slowing down. The Mariners rallied for the 7-6 win at Kansas City yesterday afternoon and that was their 10th victory in their last 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs per game this season. Both lineups are very confident at the plate because they've been scoring plenty of runs and they've been winning. Of course that leads to the ultimate level of high confidence at the plate and neither one of these hurlers is overpowering. Miley gave up 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone road start this season. In his last start at Seattle the lefty struggled and could not complete 5 innings while allowing 3 earned runs in that short start. The way the Mariners are swinging the bats we don't expect this start to go any better. LeBlanc is facing a tough match-up here as the Astros have seen plenty of him and have been very successful against him. The southpaw made 6 appearances (4 starts) against Houston last season and compiled a 6.75 ERA and a .315 BAA. Only 1 of the Mariners 15 games this season has resulted in an under! We see every reason to believe Seattle's strong trending to the over continues tonight. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late night action Friday

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points!

ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers.  The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight. 

ASA play on: OVER 216.5 NY Knicks @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – There won’t be much defense played in this game so each team should put up points in a rematch from April 1st. These two teams squared off just a few days ago and put up 218 total points in Madison Square Garden. The Bulls shot over 44% as a team while the Knicks hit 50%. That’s not a surprise given just how bad both franchises have been on the defensive end of the court this season. Both allow over 1.13 points per possession which ranks them 25th (Bulls) and 27th (Knicks) in defensive efficiency rankings. The Bulls have been especially bad their last five games by allowing 1.195PPP and 117 points per game. The Knicks have had some poor offensive showings in their last ten games but 8 of their last ten have come against playoff caliber teams. When the Bulls have played at home this season their games have averaged just under 218PPG while the Knicks on the road have averaged just over 218PPG. These two teams have locked up their positioning for the lottery so there is no reason for them to not to try tonight, like they have done for the second half of the season. The Bulls have gone Over the number in 6 straight games when hosting a bad team like the Knicks with a winning percentage less than .400 on the road. Both teams are trending a little slower than their season pace but we feel there will still be enough opportunities here to get both teams in the 110 range. Bet OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -115 on the money line over Texas Tech, Monday at 9:20 PM ET

You’ve heard us mention this before but the value here is absolutely on UVA.  We realize Tech is on a great run but our numbers had this game at -3.5 in favor of Virginia.  If we play this on the money line that a full possession+ of value.  Here’s one way to look at it.  In the Elite 8 Texas Tech was a 5-point underdog vs Gonzaga and on Saturday they were a 2.5 point dog vs Michigan State.  Now UVA is only laying 1 to 1.5 points?  The Cavs are better than both of the previous teams we mentioned in our power ratings and others (Ken Pom).  But because UVA has had some tight wins and Tech has now covered 8 of their last 9 games and the oddsmakers almost have no choice but to set this lower than it should be.  Even with the number off in favor of Virginia, almost 60% of the bets have come in on Tech because most bettors remember what they see most recently.  The fact is the Cavs have been the better team the entire season.  Much is made of Tech’s defense, which is great (#1 in efficiency), but let’s not pretend they have a huge edge on that side of the court vs Virginia.  The Cavs defense ranks 5th in efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense, and 3rd in 3 point FG% defense.  So on that end, these teams are very close in our opinion.  Offensively, however, Virginia has a fairly significant season long edge.  They rank 3rd in offensive efficiency (Tech is 28th), 19th in eFG% (Tech is 55th) and 9th in 3 point FG% (Tech is 66th).  A key situation that’s not being talked about very much is the health of the Red Raiders Tariq Owens.  This 6’10 shot blocker is one of the top interior defenders in the nation and he is nowhere close to 100%.  He was in a boot on Sunday and while we expect him to try and play, we can’t imagine he’ll be all that effective.  If he’s not in the game much tonight, that’s a huge edge to the Cavaliers.  Again, this comes back to where the number should be and where it is.  This number, as we said above, is set at Virginia -1 or -1.5.  We are playing this one on the money line at -120 (some are at -125).  That would be our recommendation as we simply need Virginia to win. 

ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league.  Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET

We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans.  Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so.  However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State.  We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here.  If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite.  So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans.  Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency).  However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke.  We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense.  We do give MSU a decent edge offensively.  They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%.  The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga.  The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part.  They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%.  Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed.  We expect MSU to shoot better in this game.  Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here.  They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games.  We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities.  While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game.  The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005.  While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech.  Those teams usually don’t move on.  In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever.  Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999).  We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game.  Take the Spartans on Saturday.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Milwaukee Bucks, 5PM ET – The thought process for this game is pretty straight forward. The Bucks literally have nothing left to play for with the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs. The Nets control their own destiny but need to win to get a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We wouldn’t make this bet if we still didn’t have value in the number though and based on these teams recent meeting, we get it here. The Bucks were just favored by -1.5 points in Brooklyn earlier this week so the natural swing would have them -9 or -10 in this game. The line opened -8.5-points but dropped immediately to where it is now. That tells us one HUGE factor in this game. MVP Giannis won’t play. We know he wants too but the Bucks would be stupid to play him here, especially with a tender ankle. Milwaukee is already short handed with several starters and key contributors out with injuries so covering any kind of spread is going to be tough. Plus, the Bucks are off a big come from behind road win in Philly AND just beat this Nets team earlier in the week. Brooklyn in the way more desperate team here and worth a bet.

ASA play on: @Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – The Bucks win last night have assured Milwaukee the best record in the East and overall NBA so the Raptors main concern is being healthy going into the post season. Charlotte still has an outside shot at making the playoffs but essentially needs to win out and get help from other teams. These same two teams just met a few weeks ago and the Raptors were favored by 11.5 points at home. The Hornets won that game 115-114. As you can see the line adjustment here by the oddsmakers is too great. Based on that last game the Hornets should be a slight favorite here. Revenge doesn’t work here for Toronto as it’s a meaningless game to them. Charlotte has been very good at home this year with a 24-15 SU record and a home differential of +4PPG. The Hornets have won and covered two straight as a home dog as they recently beat Boston at home as a 4-point dog and San Antonio as a 4-point dog. Charlotte is also 4-1 SU at home their last five games and the one loss was by 4-points to Philly. Toronto has won 5 straight games, so their sense of urgency is not the same as it is for Charlotte. The value in the line is key here along with the team that is more desperate. Grab the points!

ASA play on: OVER 228 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – These two teams clearly have nothing left to play for so expect a lack of effort on the defensive end of the court tonight. That means plenty of good opportunities on the offensive end of the court and lots of scoring here. These two teams have not been good defensively to begin with as the Kings rank 19th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Cavs are dead last. If we look at the last five games the Kings are allowing 1.233 points per possession (29th) while the Cavs are giving up 1.242PPP which is last. Obviously, this proves our point on how these defenses are trending with nothing to play for. Sacramento is allowing over 119PPG their last five games; the Cavs are giving up 122.6PPG. On the season the Cavs average 87.7 field goal attempts per game but in their last three games they are averaging 94 attempts per game which leads to more scoring here, especially against a Kings D that lacks motivation. Sacramento just played three games against playoff teams from the West but prior to that had played two games against teams similar to the Cavs (Pelicans, Mavericks) and those games finished with 239 and 246 total points. Expect a fast-paced game with plenty of great shot opportunities which leads to an EASY OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Lipscomb +1.5 over Texas, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

From a straight value perspective, Lipscomb is definitely worth a look here.  They are +1.5 in this game vs Texas.  For comparison’s sake, the Longhorns were +1.5 on Tuesday when they faced TCU here at Madison Square Garden.  Looking at power ratings (Ken Pom) Lipscomb is actually rated as a better team than TCU (#39 while TCU is #43).  That tells us this number should be similar to Tuesday’s TCU – Texas game but it’s a full 3-point difference.  We were on Texas on Tuesday as we felt the situation was perfect.  The Horns were in revenge mode vs their Big 12 and in state rival after losing at home to TCU just a few weeks earlier in their regular season finale.  The loss by the Horns pretty much eliminated them from any at large bid consideration for the NCAA.  That gave UT some major motivation on Tuesday and they handled TCU winning by 14.  The Frogs shot as poorly as they have in a long time making only 28% of their shots and just 19% from beyond the arc.  While this is now the NIT Championship game, don’t be surprised if Texas is a bit flat vs no-name Lipscomb.  The Horns had their big game on Tuesday.  On the other hand, this is a program changing game for Lipscomb.  They have proven more than worthy to be here winning ALL of their NIT games on the road (@ Davidson, @ UNC Greensboro, and @ NC State).  Texas played all of their NIT games at home until Tuesday’s neutral court match up with TCU.  Speaking of TCU, on a sidenote this Lipscomb team beat TCU by 9 on the road earlier this year.  Back to this game…We don’t expect the Longhorns to shut down Lipscomb’s offense as they did with TCU a few days ago.  That’s because the Bisons shoot well from every level (21st nationally in eFG%) and make nearly 76% of their FT’s as well.  Defensively the Bisons are very good at defending the 3 point line (allowing 32% which is 47th nationally) which is a good match up for them here as Texas shoot a lot of 3’s.  The Horns pick up almost 37% of their points from beyond the arc which is 61st most nationally.  If they struggle from 3, which they could here vs this defense, they are in trouble.  Lipscomb is a veteran team with 5 upperclassmen in the starting line up.  They went to the NCAA last year and lost in UNC.  These upperclassmen have been very successful with a 72-30 record over the last 3 seasons.  Also keep in mind, this team was favored by 6-points in the Atlantic Sun Championship game but lost to Liberty.  That’s the same Liberty team that beat Mississippi State in round one of the Big Dance and then gave Va Tech all they could handle in the round of 32.  Taking on a below .500 Big 12 team (in conference play) in a potential letdown spot is worth a long look.  We like Lipscomb to win the NIT Championship.

ASA UNDER 238 Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET – At first glance you might want to be the Over here, but the numbers support Under the total. These two teams just met in Philly and combined for 256 total points so Over bettors will want to go that route. The Sixers are without Embiid here and potentially Jimmy Butler too. Those two players combined for 52 points in the most recent meeting. That’s a ton of points the 76ers will have to replace on the offensive end of the court.  Atlanta is coming off a game in San Antonio last night which is significant as the Hawks games average just 224 total points per game when Atlanta is not rested. That’s dramatically lower than their season average of 231 total points per game. The Hawks offense has slowed in their last three games as they’ve scored 111, 122 (in regulation vs. the Bucks) and 98 points respectively. The 76ers are essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the East so It’s more important to get rest and stay healthy which means different rotations and unfamiliar lineups together on the floor. That adds up to less scoring. The Sixers also have Milwaukee on deck, so I doubt they’ll be 100% focused on Atlanta tonight, even though the Hawks recently beat them. Even if we look at basic season averages the Hawks games at home average 234 total points while Philly averages 227 on the road. Both numbers are much lower than the posted number tonight. When we crunch the numbers with our math model we project just 229 total points in this contest. BET UNDER!

ASA play OVER 219 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10”30PM ET –A big factor in the number movement tonight is the pace of play as both teams are playing much slower than normal at this time. In their last five games the Warriors are currently 26th in pace, while Denver is 28th.  That pace of play has forced the oddsmaker to over-correct this total and the value clearly lies with the OVER. In fact, these same two teams met less than a month ago and the Total on that game was 235 which means nearly 15-points of adjustment? You’ve heard the term buy low and sell high which is exactly what we are doing tonight. In the game on March 8th these two teams combined for 227 points. Denver is coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season and should rebound here with a much better showing. The Warriors defense isn’t what it has been in the past as they currently rank 15th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.10 points per possession. Offensively though the Warriors are the best in the NBA with an offensive efficiency at averages 1.161PPP and 117.7 points per game. Denver is a top 10 defensive team in the NBA but also the 5th best offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 47% on the season as a team and average 111PPG. The value in the number is the key here and it also helps that 12 of the last sixteen meetings have gone Over the number. This game finishes with 228 or more points. BET OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas +1.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET

Our power ratings have Texas favored by 1 point on a neutral court so the line value is with the Horns in our opinion.  On top of that, this is a double revenge spot for Texas who lost both games to TCU this year.  They lost a tight game on the road 65-61 back in January.  They then lost a huge home game to TCU just a few weeks ago, a game they really needed if they wanted a chance for an at large NCAA tourney bid.  The Horns blew it at home shooting just37% while allowing TCU to make 54% of their shots.  Worse yet, Texas shot just 21% from behind the arc while the Frogs made over 50% of their 3-pointers.  Just an all around poor shooting effort for the Longhorns.  Also make note, the Horns top player, Kerwin Roach, did not play in that regular season finale vs TCU but has since come back to score 8, 12, 21, and 14 points since that loss.  UT was 1-4 during Roach’s 5-game suspension and they are 3-1 since he came back with their only loss to Kansas in the Big 12 tourney.  Roach will be in the line up on Tuesday.  Also note that Texas was favored by 7 in that meeting just a few weeks ago and now they are an underdog on a neutral court which is a huge over adjustment in just a few weeks time.  After that loss, Texas head coach Shaka Smart was fairly blunt and straight to the point.  "I've never been as disappointed as I am right now," said Smart, who is 66-65 overall at Texas, and 31-41 in the Big 12. "I know our players are a better than they played today, I know we're a better team than we played today. It doesn't matter, you've got to go do it."  The Longhorns had no idea they’d get another shot at TCU and we expect them to play with an emotional edge here.  Both teams come in having won all 3 of their NIT games at home.  Despite their two losses to TCU, the Longhorns were the better team all season long.  They have a higher power rating, they finished with a better Big 12 record, they were better both offensively and defensively in efficiency (Big 12 games).  If it’s a tight game late and comes down to FT’s the Horns made 75.6% of their freebies on conference play while TCU made just 68%.  Texas was close to having a much better record than 8-10 in the Big 12 as 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less.  TCU, on the other hand, finished 7-11 in league play and 7 of their 11 losses came by 9 points or more.   We definitely feel Texas is the better team and with the added motivation we expect them to get the win on Tuesday night.     

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 80PM ET – The Blazers are battling for the 3rd or 4th seed in the West and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota is gearing up for the offseason and a little R&R.  Portland lost a key piece to their team when center Nurkic was lost for the season due to a horrific leg injury but Enes Kanter was brought in as an insurance policy if something like this happened. Without Nurkic the Blazers still outrebound Detroit 68-52 in their last outing despite losing. Kanter delivered 20 points and 15 rebounds in 34 minutes for his first double-double since taking over the starting spot. Kanter isn’t Nurkic, but the dropoff isn’t as dramatic as you might think. Minnesota has their own injuries to worry about. The Wolves are without Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington who are all major contributors. Portland had won 8 of nine games before a loss in Detroit and we expect a bounce back here. The Blazers are 18-9 SU off a loss this year and considering the low nature of this number we expect a SU and ATS win. Portland has some poor early season road numbers but have since improved to 9th in overall road differential at -.1PPG. Again, that’s marginal considering tonight’s circumstances. Portland is on a 10-3 ATS road run and we like them here against a team like Minnesota that has called it a season.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We like the line and money indicators early on here and feel the move on the line is to attract Piston’s backers. We won’t bite and will side with the more desperate Pacers at home off a loss at home. Both are fighting for seeding position in the East but the Pacers are in 5th right now, tied with Boston who holds the tie breaker over them. Despite how Detroit is currently playing, we can’t ignore their 14-24 SU road record or their -3.4PPG differential which was 19th worse in the NBA. Indiana has been fantastic at home this season with a 28-10 SU record and the 3rd best home point differential of +8.9PPG. Indiana played poorly in their last home game against the Magic and will bounce back here. The Pacers are 10-4 SU at home this year off a loss, 3-1 when at home and off a home loss. Earlier this season the Pacers beat the Pistons at home by 37 and we feel they win this game big again, especially considering the Pistons will be without Blake Griffin in this one.

ASA Washington Wizards +11 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – Washington is officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they continue to play hard with Bradley Beal leading the way. It certainly helps that a few newcomers from the trade deadline are still trying to impress coaches and management. The Wiz are coming off a game a few nights ago in Utah and took the Jazz to the wire before losing 124-128. If they bring that same energy tonight this will be another easy cover. These same two teams recently met in Washington with the Nuggets winning by 5-points. Denver is in a tough spot here as they are coming off two huge road games in Houston and at OKC and have MUCH bigger games on deck with Golden State and then San Antonio. The Nuggets are battling the Warriors for the #1 seed in the West, so they’ll get caught looking ahead to that game, especially since they recently beat this same Wizards team. Denver isn’t playing their best basketball of the season right now with an average negative differential of -6.4PPG in their last five games. Washington has covered 4 of the last five in the series and get another cover here. Grab the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5 PM ET

Duke really shouldn’t be here.  They’ve had back to back games go to the wire and each time their opponent (UCF & Va Tech) have missed layups at the buzzer to either win or tie.  Now they face a veteran MSU team that is better than both of those opponents and has won their first 3 tourney games by an average of 16 PPG.  Sparty has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 2 points.  While Michigan State is peaking right now, we’re not so sure we can say the same about Duke.  They are 9-3 their last 12 games and nearly half of those wins (4) have come by 2 points or less.  Looking at season long numbers a strong argument could be made that the Spartans are simply a better team overall.  They are definitely a better shooting team ranking 13th in eFG% while Duke ranks 52nd in that category.  The Spartans are the much better 3-point shooting team making 38% from beyond the arc (21st nationally) compared to just 30% for Duke (329th nationally).  They also make 75% of their FT’s compared to Duke’s 68%.  Defensively they are much closer with MSU ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense while Duke ranks 9th in that category.  Rebounding edge also goes to Michigan State with a +9.5 rebounding margin compared to Duke’s sitting at +6.0.  MSU is great on the offensive boards (21st) while Duke struggles on the defensive boards (240th).  The Devils will also potentially be without their 3rd leading scorer, Cam Reddish, who has a bad knee and will be a game time decision.  This one also falls into the same system we had yesterday with Texas Tech.  Elite 8 underdogs of +4.5 or less who are also the lower seed are now 20-8 SU and 19-7-1 ATS dating back to 2003.   Our power ratings have this game even so getting 2-points is some solid value. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Purdue, Saturday at 8:49 PM ET

Purdue has simply shot the lights out the last 2 games beating Villanova & Tennessee and shooting 54% from the field in the process.  They’ve hit a ridiculous 31 of 61 from 3 point range for 51%.  Even with that performance, they needed a stupid foul by UT on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and then OT to beat the Vols.  Can they keep that red hot shooting in tact here?  We highly doubt it.  After facing 2 decent but not great defenses (UT ranked 42 in defensive efficiency & Nova ranked 81st) the Boilers now face a defense that definitely can slow them down.  UVA ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 5th in eFG% defense, and 2nd in 3-point FG% defense.  Purdue lives beyond the arc and now they face a team that allows their opponents to make just 28% on the season.  No way Purdue continues their 50% barrage from deep here.  UVA has kind of done the opposite.  While Purdue has needed huge offensive performances to move on, the Cavs have not played very well offensively yet they continue to win.  On Thursday they shot just 35% overall and a very poor 27% from 3-point range, yet still beat a red hot Oregon team by 4 points.  This UVA team is definitely capable of breaking out offensive as they rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency, 20th in eFG%, and 7th in 3-point FG%.  They may just break out here vs a Purdue defense that allowed Tennessee to make 50% of their shots on Thursday.  If Virginia gets their offense going here, we think they will, we don’t see how Purdue can win this game.  This is a bad match up for

ASA 10* play on: Detroit Pistons -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:00PM ET – These same two teams just met in Portland where the Blazers won by 5. Detroit was in the middles of a 5-game road trip while the Blazers had 2 days rest. Now the roles have flipped. The Pistons are home and rested, Portland is off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights.  The Pistons recently played three of the best teams in the West on the road (Denver, Golden State and this Portland team) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to that road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams and they just beat another in the Magic. Detroit is 24-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Portland had center Nurkic in their most recent win over Detroit, but he has since been lost for the season with a horrible leg injury. Without Nurkic and another starter McCollum the Blazers depth will be tested in this back-to-back situation. Detroit is playing with revenge and have done extremely well at home against teams with winning records (6-0 ATS run). Portland now 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest. Lay the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas Tech +4.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET

What a match up we have in this one.  It’s the #1 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Gonzaga) vs the #1 defense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (Texas Tech).  We like the top defense to keep this very close so we’ll take the points.  We were on Florida State +8 vs Gonzaga on Thursday as we felt the Noles defense would slow down the Zags while doing enough offensively to keep it close.  Well we were half right as FSU held Gonzaga to just 40% shooting.  The problem was, the Seminoles shot just 39% and make only 3 of their 20 three point attempts (15%).  The game ended with the Zags winning 72-58, however it was much closer than that.  It was actually just a 4-point lead for Gonzaga with less than 3:30 remaining and FSU went on to make only 1 of their final 7 shots.  The Seminoles also started fouling with 2:00 minutes remaining leading to 7 points from the FT for Gonzaga in the final minutes.  If Gonzaga struggled offensive vs FSU they will definitely have problems against Tech.  The Red Raiders held a very good Michigan team to only 44 points on 32% shooting on Thursday on their way to a 19 point blowout win.  They are playing fantastic basketball winning by margins of 15, 20, and 19 points in the Big Dance.  They have covered the spread by more than 40 points in those 3 games combined.  They have held those 3 opponents (Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, and Michigan) to just 35% combined shooting.  Gonzaga simply isn’t accustomed to facing top notch defensive teams in the WCC and it showed on Thursday vs FSU.  We expect Tech’s offense, which has shot 48% in the tourney, to cause some problems for the Zags.  Tech also falls into a very strong historical spot here.  Since 2003, Elite 8 underdogs of 4.5 points or more and if they are the lower seed are 17-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%)!  That falls right on Texas Tech in this one.  We think Tech has a great shot to win so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 143 Points - Duke vs Virginia Tech, Friday at 9:40 PM ET

These two played a few weeks ago and the total was set at 143.  They went over by 6 points with Va Tech winning 77-72.  Even with that, this total opened 145 and has been bet down to 143 which is telling.  If you look closely at their only meeting a few weeks ago, both teams played lights out offensively with VT averaging 1.21 PPP and Duke averaging 1.14 PPG.  Both teams shot 62% inside the arc and they combined to make 38 free throws so a lot of clocked stopped, free points.  Even with that the game was still at 143 (73-70) with 20 seconds remaining in the game.  Va Tech (332nd in tempo) made sure it was a slow paced game as each team had just 50 FG attempts.  Expect the same tonight as the Hokies know they can’t get into a running game with Duke and expect to win.  The Devils shoot very few 3’s and they are poor shooting team from deep (30% from 3) so they won’t have many threes.  Va Tech does like shooting 3’s but they are playing a Duke defense that allows only 29.8% from beyond the arc this season so don’t expect the Hokies to light it up from deep.  Neither team fouls very much so we don’t expect 38 made FT’s as they had a few weeks ago.  These teams, both being in the ACC, know each other very well and have gone UNDER the total in 14 of their last 17 meetings.  Duke has now gone under the total at a rate of 24-10-2 this year and going back further they are 36-17-2 to the UNDER their last 55 games.  These two are also playing their first game in Capital One Arena in Washington DC so unfamiliar surroundings could lead to a rough shooting night as well.  Two very good defenses (Duke 6th in defensive efficiency & VT 19th) and a slow paced game add up to an UNDER play tonight. 

ASA play on: UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET – Minnesota was in the top half of the league in scoring this season but in their last eight games they’ve averaged just 106PPG which is six full points less than their season average. The Wolves are an ‘average’ team in terms of pace of play at 100.1 possessions per game and they’ve shot just 43.5% their last five games. Scoring will be tough tonight against a Warriors team ramping up their defense for a run at another Championship. Golden State has allowed an average of 108PPG (3-points less than reg ssn) their last five games and held foes to just 43.2% shooting. The Warriors are the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season but in their last five games they are the 25th slowest. These two teams met just 10-days ago, and the Vegas number was 229.5 and the two teams combined for just 224 total points. The number on this game hasn’t been adjusted enough based on that previous outcome. Minnesota has a ton of injuries (Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington) and the current roster just isn’t capable of scoring 115 here. Not that this matters much (we base our decisions on stats not trends) but these two teams have stayed below the Total in 25 of their last thirty three meetings.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee -1 over Purdue, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

We were on UT last weekend and they jumped all over Iowa and at one point had a 25-point lead and they were up 21 at half.  The Vols came out in the 2nd half and were tentative and absolutely played to protect the lead rather than staying aggressive.  They went on to beat Iowa by 6 in OT and we’re pretty sure they learned their lesson.  Tonight if they get a lead, which we expect them to do, we do not look for them to back off.  They are facing a Purdue team that is very efficient offensively (5th in the country) but relies way too heavily on 1-player as we’ve discussed in the past.  Carsen Edwards has taken nearly 35% of Purdue’s shots this season and 41% of their shots thus far in the NCAA tourney.  If he is off, this team is in trouble.  He was not off in their most recent game last weekend as the Boilers plastered Villanova with Edwards scoring 42 points on 21 shot attempts.  He was struggling heading into that game shooting just 27% overall his previous 4 games.  Tennessee has a number of athletic defenders they can run at Edwards so we expect him to struggle a bit in this one.  As good as the Boilers are on offense, the Vols are better.  They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted efficiency and 21st in eFG%, both better than Purdue.  They are much tougher to guard with 5 players averaging more than 10 PPG which is the opposite of Purdue.  While the Boilers rely on making 3-pointers, the Vols are one of the top interior teams in the country with 55% of their points coming from inside the arc (25th nationally) and they make nearly 56% of their 2-pointers (20th nationally).  Sometimes deep shooting doesn’t travel quite as well so we trust a team that will be more reliable inside the arc.  If Purdue is red hot from 3 and Edwards goes off, UT is in trouble.  We don’t expect that to happen so we’ll side with Tennessee to win this one.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:00PM ET – Orlando is off a HUGE win over Miami which vaulted them into 8th in the East and we expect a letdown here. In the game against the Heat, the Magic shot below 42% as a team but had a huge rebounding advantage over Miami. They won’t have that advantage here against a Pistons team that is 13th in the league in total rebounds. We laid -4.5 points the other night with the Heat who were 8th in the East at the time, so we’ll lay less points with a better Detroit team at home and off a few losses. The Pistons just played three of the best teams in the West (Denver, Golden State and Portland) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to their current road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams. Another indicator of line value here is the spread on two of those home games when they were favored by -1.5 points over the Raptors and -2.5 over the Pacers. Granted, the Magic are hot right now, but they’re not nearly as good as those two team but are in a similar price range. Orlando has won six in a row but four of those W’s came against Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis. Orlando won 5 of their last six games at home and now travel to Detroit who is 23-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential.  Prior to this current hot streak, the Magic had lost 4 straight on the road and are 2-5 SU their last seven away with all five losses coming by more than tonight’s spread.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 230 Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET – These two teams have nothing to play for and we feel it shows tonight, especially on the offensive end of the court. Even when we look at general, all season numbers we see the Wizards games averaged 231 total points per game while the Suns games averaged 223PPG. Washington has scored 108 or less points offensively in 4 of their last five games and 113 or less in all five if you exclude OT in the game against the Bulls. The main reason is a much slower pace of play in their last five games. During the rest of the season the Wiz were the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA but in their last five they are 23rd slowest. Washington is also the 8th worst offensive efficiency team in the league over that 5-game span. Phoenix has really dipped offensive of late as they’ve scored 103 or less points in 6 of their last seven games. Over a 5-game span the Suns have the worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA as they score just 1.029 points per possession. Phoenix and their opponent have totaled more than 230 points in just 2 of their last twelve games. Washington and their foe have totaled 230 or more points in just 2 of their last eight games but one of those was an OT affair. Based on the math and current trending numbers this game finishes with just 218 total points. BET UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 163 Points - Coastal Carolina @ DePaul, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Two red hot offensive teams going at it tonight in Chicago.  DePaul loves playing at home where they average 81 PPG on 48% shooting.  They are one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 49th in offensive efficiency and 74th in eFG%.  In their last 4 home games the Demons have scored 92, 101, 100, and 97 points.  We expect more of the same tonight as they face a Coastal Carolina team that is allowing 79 PPG on the road this season.  DePaul loves to play fast (69th in tempo) and CC will do the same (77th in tempo).  Not only does Coastal play fast, they can score in bunches as well.  They average 77 PPG on the season and they’ve topped 90 in 4 of their last 8 games.  They are coming off a game @ WVU in which they put up 109 points which was the most every vs a Bob Huggins team.  They also allowed the Mountaineers to score 91 so the defense was far from stellar.  CC should have very good success tonight offensively against a DePaul team that was the worst defense in the Big East this year ranking 282nd nationally in eFG% defense.  The Blue Demons have allowed 85 PPG over their last 10 games with all but 2 of those opponents topping 80 points.  Both teams played on Monday so a 48 hour turnaround will only make these defenses worse in our opinion.  This line sits at DePaul -8 which suggests a final score of 86-78 or right in that range.  We like both teams to surpass their projected score for tonight and we like the OVER.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 176.5 points - FIU @ UW Green Bay, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

Two of the fastest paced teams in the nation and two terrible defenses lead to a high scoring track meet in this one.  FIU is #1 in the nation in tempo getting a shot up every 14 seconds!  UWGB is far behind as they rank 10th in tempo hoisting a shot an average of every 14.8 seconds.  Both defenses are terrible with UWGB ranking 340th in scoring defense (out of 351 teams) and FIU ranks 337th.  The Phoenix rank 284th in eFG% defense and FIU ranks 276th in the same category.  On offense, Green Bay has scored 80+ points in 11 of their 15 home games this season and FIU allows more PPG (81 PPG overall / 86 PPG on the road) than any defense GB has faced this season.  The same can be said for FIU.  The worst scoring defense they have faced this season will be UWGB (82 PPG allowed).  These two have each played one game in the CIT thus far with FIU beating Texas State 87-81 and UWGB topping East Tennessee State 102-94.  Both high scoring games combining to go OVER by 55 points, yet the opponents were much different.  Each were slow paced teams with much better defenses yet they still put up big numbers offensively.  Texas State is ranked 305th in tempo and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.  ETSU ranks 203rd in efficiency and 112th in defensive efficiency.  We like both teams to get to 90 points here which would send it OVER the total.

ASA play on: OVER Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – There was a big line move on this game as the opening total was quite a bit higher than the current number, but it wasn’t money that moved the line, it was injuries. The Celtics will sit Kyrie Irving tonight (maybe Tatum) but that shouldn’t have as big an impact on the move as it did. The reason being, the depth of the Celtics has proven to be a problem all season long as they simply have too many great players and not enough minutes to go around. Irving’s back up Rozier is a starter for at least half of the teams in the NBA. Cleveland is playing well right now and a lot of that has to do with two things. One, the return of Kevin Love who is coming off a 20-point, 19-rebound game on Sunday in Milwaukee.  Love has seven double-doubles in his 15 games since returning from a foot injury. Two, the emergence of Cavs rookie Collin Sexton. Sexton has scored 20+ points in 8 of his last nine games. The trending numbers that support our Over wager here are obvious. On the year, the Cavs are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA, 26th worst offensive efficiency team and last in defensive efficiency. But if you look at their most recent five games (with Love) they are playing the same tempo, but they are averaging 1.174 points per possession (9th) and are allowing 1.207 point per possession which is worse than their (worst) league average. In other words, scoring much more efficiently and allowing more points rather easily. Boston has similar trending numbers: 14th reg ssn in pace at 99.6, 7th last five games at 100.7. Offensive efficiency numbers are slightly lower their last five games but it’s a consistent number. Defensively is where the Celtics have struggled. On the season they are the 7th best defensive efficiency unit allowing just 1.078PPP but in their last five games they allow 1.175PPG which is 24th in the NBA. The Cavaliers have played two games against a Bucks team that is like the Celtics and Vegas posted numbers of 223 and 225.5 on those two contests. Boston has had 16 straight games where the Total has been 220 or higher. The value in the number is too great to pass on. Bet OVER!

ASA play on: UNDER 226 Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – There are some indicators here that favor the Under as it pertains to public money and line fluctuation and we like what we are seeing. Brooklyn is coming off three straight games against teams from the West that like to play fast. The Kings are 2nd fastest, Lakers 3rd and Clippers are 8th in tempo in the NBA. That’s not the case with the Blazers that rank 18th in that category. That means the home team is going to dictate the style of play here. Recently when the Blazers have played two road games against similar teams to the Blazers the two games resulted in just 212 and 204 total points. In their last five games the Nets are shooting under 42% as a team but holding opponents to less that 44%. In their last five games the Nets and their opponents are averaging 222 total points. The Blazers in that same 5 game stretch are totaling 224 points. Portland prefers to play slower at home as they are the 10th slowest team when playing at home. In their most recent home game, the Blazers and Pistons combined for 229 total points, but the two teams attempted just 163 total field goal attempts which is 15 less than league average. The Nets are now on a 5-0 Under run when coming off a win while Portland is on an 8-1 Under run against teams with an above .500 record. These same two teams met in Brooklyn just over a month ago and combined for 212 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Vegas at St Louis, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

Marc-Andre Fleury might be back with the Golden Knights for tonight's game. However, couple of key factors even if the Vegas goaltender does return tonight. He has been out with a lower-body injury plus his wife just gave birth to their third child on Friday. Not only are there injury and distraction issues for Fleury, he has lost his last two starts against St Louis as the Blues have gotten to him for 9 goals in those two games! Additionally the veteran netminder could be a little rusty if he gets the call as tonight would be his first start since March 15th. If Malcolm Subban gets the start, he is 2-7 with a 3.47 GAA in his road starts this season. You can see why the Blues should score well here. St Louis has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 4.8 goals per game with the over going 4-0-1 in those contests. The Golden Knights are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Red Wings. Vegas managed just two goals in that game. The 4 most recent times that Vegas was off a game in which they've been held to two goals, their next game has gone over all 4 times! 1 of those games totaled 8 goals and the other 3 each totaled 9 goals! With this total at a 5.5 we've got great line value here considering the situation. We expect plenty of goals tonight based on our computer math model. Bet OVER

ASA play on: UNDER 219.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – This game has meaning for both teams as the Celtics are battling for home court in the first round of the playoffs but currently sit 5th in the East. San Antonio sits safely in 8th in the West but are only a game out of 5th which would mean going to Portland instead of say Denver or Golden State. With plenty to play for we expect a defensive game which results in a lower total. We’re seeing the Spurs settling into playoff intensity as they’ve now gone Under the total in 8 of their last ten games. In their last six games the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals to 221 or less four times. San Antonio is 22nd in the league in pace of play on the season averaging 98.5 possessions per game. In their last five games the Spurs tempo has slowed even more to 96.8 possessions per game which is 5th slowest. Boston has also preferred to play slower all season long with the 17th slowest tempo in the NBA. The Celtics have the 6th best overall defensive efficiency rating for the season as they allow just 1.077 points per possession. The Spurs haven’t been great defensively on the season, but they have been their last five games allowing just 1.057PPG over that stretch of games. In their last three home games against similar teams from the Western Conference (Denver, Houston and Portland) the Celtics and those opponents have scored 219, 219 and 189 total points. When playing without rest this season the C’s games have averaged just 214.2PPG. After blowing an 18-point lead last night the Celtics will be much more focused on the defensive end of the court. The bet here is UNDER THE TOTAL!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Virginia Tech -8.5 over Liberty, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET

We think the line value is on Va Tech here.  The power rating difference between Va Tech & Liberty is in the exact same range as the difference between Duke vs UCF along with UNC vs Washington.  While those spreads sit at -13 and -12 respectively, the Hokies are laying only 9.  We used Va Tech vs St Louis in the first round and the Hokies were up 40-18 at half but got complacent in the 2nd stanza and won by 14.  We mentioned in that analysis we feel VT is underrated.  They rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are one of only 8 teams that can make that claim and the other 7 teams are all #1 or #2 seeds.  Liberty trailed for much of their opener vs Miss State but made a bunch of 3’s late for their comeback 4-point win, which was their largest lead of the game.  They are facing an MSU defense that isn’t great and they are terrible at defending the 3 (254th nationally) so it was a solid match up for the Liberty offense.  They won’t have nearly as much success today vs a very athletic and active VT zone defense.  Tech also received a huge boost on Friday when starting PG and leader Justin Robinson returned after missing 12 straight games to end the season.  Robinson gave them a solid 28 minutes (9 points) and should play even better today with a game under his belt.  Liberty got their big comeback win on Friday, their first every tourney win.  Today we think they are in big trouble vs a VaTech team that is the best team they’ve played this season.  Similar to what happened to Murray State yesterday (we were on FSU in that game) we see a potential blowout here.  Take Va Tech.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-7.5) over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET

We played against Iowa on Friday vs Cincinnati and it looked great early on as Cincy jumped out to a 13 point first half lead.  The Bearcats still led by 5 at halftime and then Iowa shot the lights out in the 2nd half.  For the game the Hawkeyes shot almost 55% including 11 three pointers.  The Hawks don’t score all that effectively inside (46% of their points – 281st nationally) and Tennessee is great defensively inside the arc allowing teams to shoot just 44% (14th nationally).  That means Iowa better be making their 3’s again to stay in this game and we just don’t see them shooting like that again vs this talented Tennessee team.  Let’s not forget that the Vols could have easily been a #1 seed and they were ranked #1 in the nation for much of the season.  This line does not reflect that as they are laying just -8 vs an Iowa team that sans their performance yesterday, simply wasn’t playing well losing 6 of their previous 8 games, with 4 of those 6 losses coming by double digits.  The Vols can score from all levels as they are very good inside the arc but have shooters that can score from deep.  They prefer to score inside which turns into a terrible match up for Iowa’s defense.  UT hits 56% of their shots from 2-point land (19th nationally) and they score 56% of their points inside the arc (20th nationally).  Iowa’s interior defense has been poor all season as they allow opponents to make almost 54% of their shots inside the 3-point line (309th nationally).  The Vols should feast inside and as we said they are more than capable from deep as well making 36% of their 3’s.  They also make 77% of their FT’s so if they get to the line they will take advantage there as well.  UT is better offensively (3rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) and much better defensively.  Iowa had their out of the ordinary shooting game on Friday and they come back to earth here.  That leads to a double digit win for UT.

ASA play on: #528 Portland Trailblazers -5 over Detroit Pistons, 10PM ET – First we’ll apologize for an abbreviated analysis today. The NCAA Tourney has us extremely busy. But rest assured we’ve done all the work as usual with our handicapping process but are limited with time for write ups. Both teams have plenty to play for as they battle for better position in their perspective conferences. We are aware of Detroit’s current 15-5 SU record but they haven’t been a good road team all season long with a 14-21 SU away mark. The Pistons road point differential of -3.2PPG is 16th in the league and a big reason why is their offensive struggles away from home (23rd in road OEFF ratings). Portland has been fantastic at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and an average differential of +8.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating on their home court this season, averaging 1.170 points per possession. Taking a closer look at Detroit’s road results we see they’ve struggled against good teams on the road. Against playoff teams recently they lost at Miami by 34, Brooklyn by 28, San Antonio by 12, at Boston by 8 and at Utah by 6-points. Portland has had some impressive home wins lately against some of the best teams in the West and most recently beat a Pacers team at home by 8 who is rated better than the Pistons in the East. Even without McCollum we like the Blazers to get a double-digit home win here. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Villanova +4 over Purdue, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET

Our power rating has Purdue favored by 2 in this game so we feel we’re getting a full possession of value.  We went against the Boilers on Thursday and missed by a half point.  ODU was +12.5 in that game, trailed by 9 with 4:00 remaining and made one shot the rest of the way losing by 13.  We still contend Purdue is overrated right now.  They didn’t play great down the stretch losing twice to Minnesota and playing a number of close games on the road down the stretch losing @ Maryland and barely beating Indiana & Nebraska.  The Boilers rely way too heavily on one guy.  Carsen Edwards.  He took 611 shots leading into last night’s game where he was 7 for 23 (30%).  He shooting just barely over 25% his last 4 games combined as he is clearly wearing down.  The problem with Thursday’s game is ODU is a poor shooting team and they struggled to score so they could not take advantage of Edward’s struggles.  We thought it would be a very low scoring game and ODU could keep it within the 12.5 points which they almost did despite shooting just 26% for the game and 24% from beyond the arc.  Purdue won’t get that luxury with Nova.  The Boiler defense goes from defending the 240th most efficient offense to the 16th most efficient with Villanova.  Both teams shoot a lot of 3’s and both shoot them pretty well.  Nova defends the arc better which should help here.  The Cats are more balanced and led by 2 seniors (Booth & Paschall) who started on last year’s National Championship team.  They are led by possibly the best coach in college basketball, Jay Wright who’s won 2 of the last 3 National Championships, and you can bet they’ll be prepared here.  This team knows how to get it done at tourney time and we think they’ll win this game outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida State -4.5 over Murray State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

The value is absolutely on FSU here.  They are favored by 4.5 to 5 which is the same number Marquette was favored over Murray State.  FSU power rates to the 16th best team nationally while Marquette is 31st.  The Eagles were faltering at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 coming into the Dance.  Because people saw what Murray did to an overrated Marquette team, they are now the talk of the town.  FSU is a different animal.  While Marquette had nobody that could guard Ja Morant, the Noles have plenty of big perimeter defenders with all starters measuring 6’4 or taller.  Not only are they big (12th tallest team in the nation) they defend very well (11th nationally in defensive efficiency).  This will be the best defense the Racers have faced this season.  Don’t expect them to shoot 53% from the field as they did they did the other night vs a Marquette defense that had no chance to contain Morant.  FSU can get it done offensively as well (32nd in offensive efficiency) with 7 players that average between  7 PPG and 13 PPG.  The Noles should control the boards as well in this one.  They are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation while Murray ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding.  Not that FSU needed any extra motivation but they have it here.  One of the leaders, Phil Cofer who is currently injured, lost his father on Thursday after their win and you can guarantee this team will play as hard as they have all season on Saturday.  Murray State is a very nice story but to give you an idea of where they stand, based on power ratings, they would be the 10th best team in the ACC, just behind Syracuse.  They had a nice win on Thursday which was a perfect situation for them playing a faltering team with nobody to slow down Morant.  FSU is a different animal and we like the Noles to roll here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET

This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney.  The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in.  First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned.  They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days.  They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%).  Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games.  Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses.  Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally.  The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG.  They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury.  He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates.  With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range.  We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here.  Take Virginia Tech tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 166.5 Points - Iona vs North Carolina, Friday at 9:20 PM ET

We see this game playing out very much like yesterday’s game between Gonzaga and Farleigh Dickinson.  It was a game the Zags jumped out big and led 53-17 at halftime.  In the 2nd half with a large lead, the Zags shut it down and coasted to an 87-49 win (146 points).  FDU really struggled to score against the longer, more athletic Zags.  We see Iona having the same problem here.  If the Gaels were a prolific 3-point shooting team or really good shooting team period, then we wouldn’t be on this under.  But the fact is, Iona was an average shooting team in a bad defensive conference.  They rank 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage.  That’s in an MAAC that was terrible defensively with 9 of their 11 teams ranking 200 or lower in defensive efficiency.  Now Iona faces a UNC defense that ranks 10th nationally in that category.  We feel Iona will struggle to get good shots and struggle to score in this game.  UNC will score and they’ll run.   That’s what they do.  However, that’s what Gonzaga likes to do as well and you saw how that game turned out.  UNC could score 50 or more by halftime but the in the 2nd half we look for them to slow the game down a bit, substitute players, and make sure they are fresh for Sunday, similar to what the Zags did yesterday.  We don’t think Iona gets to 70 in this game.  We look for low 60’s based on our numbers.  If that happens UNC has to get to 100 for this to have a chance.  Even if the Heels keep the pressure on, which we can’t imagine they will, and get to 95, Iona would have to get to 72 to get this game over the number.  We just don’t see that happening.  With UNC favored by 22 the oddsmakers see this score around 94-72.  We think neither team reaches that number.  Take the UNDER. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 142 Points - Georgia State vs Houston, Friday at 7:20 PM ET

This play is backed by a longtime trend that involves a #3/#14 seed which is 12-30 to the Under the last 42 times it’s applied. This Houston Cougars team isn’t the Phi Slama Jama team of the early 80’s, that was built on transition and outscoring opponents. This Cougars team is tenacious defensively with the 13th overall defensive efficiency rating and the #1 EFG% defense. Houston is the 2nd best team in nation in defending the 3-point shot and 5th against 2-pointers. The Cougars also protect the rim with a team that ranks 20th in the country in block percentage. On the year Houston held opponents to just 36.7% shooting and 61.2PPG. Georgia State allowed 1.026 points per possession this year which is above average by national standards, but it was their D late in the season which has us excited for this Under. In their last five games the Panthers have held opponents to just 37% shooting and an average of 65PPG. And three of those five games came against the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is an efficiency conference overall that likes to play fast. In their two Sun Belt tourney games the Panthers combined for just 105 points with Texas State and 137 with UT Arlington. The bet here is UNDER the total. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET

We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt.  The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points.  We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in.  They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented.  If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1.  They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG.  We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney.  They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league.  The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT.  The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process.  The MAC is proving us correct thus far.  The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette.  Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12.  Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11.  The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40.  Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS!  We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET

We love this match up for Cincy.  The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston.  They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record.  They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish.  Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch.  It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February.  They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game.  We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here.  Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense.  Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively.  Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games.  That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP.  Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again.  The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding.  This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away.  Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league.  It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney.  The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding.  They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET

ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games.  ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%.  While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number.  This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION

ASA play on: #589/590 UNDER 218 Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM  - During the regular season the Pistons are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA but in their last five games they are actually THE slowest paced at just 93.9 possessions per game. On the year the Pistons have the 11th best defensive efficiency rating while Phoenix is 29th or second to last. But the Suns have been much better defensively in their past five games allowing just 1.113 points per possession which is 15th best in the league. Detroit has really struggled to shoot the basketball of late as they are averaging below 40% their previous five games. In eight of their last ten games the Pistons have allowed 108 or less points to opponents. The Suns have allowed 111 or less in 5 of their last nine. The Pistons just allowed 126 points to the Cavs so their will be a concentrated effort to be much better on that end of the court. In fact, when the Pistons have allowed 125 or more points in a game, in their next contest the Under is 6-1. Phoenix has also played Under in 5 straight home games. The bet here is UNDER the total.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 131 Points - St Marys vs Villanova, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET

St Mary’s won WCC tourney by beating Gonzaga 60-47.  Nova won the Big East tourney winning their 3 games by margins of 11, 4 in OT, and 2 points.  Zags averaged 90 PPG on the season and St Mary’s held them to 69 & 47 points their final 2 meetings of the season.  Gaels held 6 of their final 8 opponents to 65 points or less and they play very slow ranking #347 in tempo out of 351 teams.  Villanova plays very slow as well (#333 in tempo) so not many possessions in this game.  Nova relies heavily on the 3-point shot with almost 43% of their points coming from beyond the arc (9th most nationally).  The Gaels defend the 3 well so that should make it tough on Nova's offense.  Neither team fouls very much so we don't expect many points from the charity stripe in this game.  Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers and both protect the ball well offensively so we won't see many steals and run outs here.  We expect this game to be a grinder with the winner scoring in the low 60's.  UNDER is the play.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET

This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo).  This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree.  A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team.  The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall.  They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida).  The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating).  They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation.  Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion.  Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season.  Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%.  Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub.  Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney.  They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference.  Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking.  Take the Gators
 

OVER 149.5 Murray State vs Marquette, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET (Hartford, CT)

Murray State can score as they average 81 PPG.  Guard Ja Morant will be a first round NBA pick and he is averaging 24 PPG.  He’s not the only Racer that can score as they have 3 others that average more than 10 PPG.   You’d think with good guard play Murray State shoots a lot of 3’s but they don’t.  They score almost 54% of their points inside the arc which is 60th nationally.  They also shoot 57% inside the arc which is the 2nd best percentage in the nation.  Marquette is the opposite.  They shoot a lot of 3’s and they make them at a 39.3% clip (9th nationally).  Markus Howard, the Hauser brothers, and Sacar Anim ALL shoot over 40% from deep.  They struggle to score inside with most of those points coming off 3-point misses.  Murray State’s defense looks like they match up well as they give up only 28% from beyond the arc which is good for 4th best nationally.  However, that might be exaggerated due to their easy schedule (270TH) which also plays a part in their inflated defensive efficiency numbers of .987 points per possession. Murray State ranks 97th in tempo or pace and get a shot up every 16.4 seconds which is 64th.  Marquette is 119th in tempo and get a field goal attempt every 16.9 seconds for 96th. Both teams are top 50 in EFG% offense meaning they don’t need a lot of attempts to efficiently score. It all adds up to an EASY OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 134 Points - Bradley vs Michigan State, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET

After starting the conference season 0-5, Bradley rallied and finished in 5th place in the MVC this year with a 9-9 record.  They won the MVC tourney winning 3 games in 3 days last weekend, 2 of those as an underdog.  The Braves scored just 61, 53, and 57 points in those 3 and were able to win all 3.  Scoring has been a problem for Bradley scoring just 66 PPG this season finishing 8th in the 10 team league.  This team hasn’t gotten to 70 points since February 9th.  Braves play very slow (#299 in tempo) and rely on their defense which was #1 in the Missouri Valley in eFG% defense.  Bradley will have a tough time getting their offense moving in the right direction vs MSU defense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in eFG% defense.  It’s easily the best defense Bradley has faced this year.  To give you an idea, the top rated defense in the MVC is Loyola and they rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency, basically 90 spots below Michigan State.  Only 1 of MSU’s last 11 opponents has topped 70 points.  This should be a grinder and UNDER is the play.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State -2 over St Johns, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET

These two were heading in opposite directions down the stretch.  ASU won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of red hot Oregon who has now won and covered 8 games in a row.  The Devils played the Ducks tougher than anyone on the Pac 12 tourney losing by 4 in overtime.  That’s rather impressive as the Ducks beat all of their other 3 opponents in the Pac 12 tourney by double digits including beating regular season champ Washington by 20 points.  They were also the much more consistent team this year finishing alone in 2nd in  the Pac 12 with a 12-6 record.  St Johns, on the other hand, is sitting in this position mainly due to their 14-1 start to the season.  That gave them quite a buffer and they needed it as they went 7-11 the rest of the way.  The Johnnies have lost 5 of their last 7 games including setbacks at the hands of DePaul, Providence, and Xavier (twice) all non-NCAA tourney teams.  Their top scoring guard Ponds is shooting only 42% from the field his last 5 games and it looks to us like he is starting to wear down after carrying the load for much of the season.  Ponds is a slight 6’1 and 175 pounds and the physical Big East has taken it’s toll.  He’s been held below his scoring average (20 PPG) in 7 of the last 9 games.  ASU gets to the line as much as any team in this tourney with over 22% of their points this year coming from the charity stripe (21st nationally).  That’s bad news for St Johns as they foul A LOT.  Expect the Sun Devils to live at the foul line tonight.  Another huge advantage for ASU will be on the boards ranking 38th nationally in rebound margin compared to the Johnnies who are 337th in that category.  That should lead to a number of extra opportunities in this game.  In a potential close game if ASU can get some extra shot attempts up due to their rebounding advantage and end up at the FT line more often, that will make a huge difference.  ASU was in this play in game last year and lost to Syracuse so a little extra motivation for them along with the familiarity of playing in this situation.  The Johnnies haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2000 and they may just be happy to be here.  Lay the small number with Arizona State.

ASA play on: Washington Wizards -2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Somebody in the Bulls front office needs to sit down head coach Jim Boylan and ask him what the hell he is doing? The Bulls currently sit a game and a half in front of the Cavs for a better chance at securing a better pick in this year’s draft. In any event, the Bulls return home off a 3-game road trip and are off a win in their previous game so expect a letdown here. Chicago has NO home court advantage as they own the worst point differential in the league on their home court of -8.7PPG. Chicago is the least efficient offensive team in the league at home and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency. Granted the Wiz have been a horrible road team but they are still mathematically alive for the 8th seed in the East and have something to play for. Washington comes into this game off a loss and a horrendous shooting night by Bradley Beal so expect a concentrated effort here. Washington has won 3 of their last five games overall and are a healthier unit coming into this game. We like the added incentive of a few former Bulls (Portis and Parker) who were traded to the Wizards at the trade deadline, facing their previous team. Both have played much better since the deal and both were instrumental in a 9-point win here earlier this month. Take the better team with more to play for in this match up and lay the short number.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Indiana Pacers, 10:30PM ET – We’re not being stubborn here, we’re betting numbers and value, and the best value on the board today is the Clippers. Yes, we’ve lost with them twice in a row, but they had both games covered until very late in the game before the Bulls and Nets got back door covers. The Clippers are playing great right now and look like a tough out in the Western Conference playoffs this year. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6-1 L7. In their last five games, which includes a loss, they have an average point differential of +4.4PPG. Those ten wins in this current run for the Clippers have come by an average of 12.1PPG and ALL but one of those victories were by more than tonight’s spread. The Pacers are in a tough spot here coming off a close loss in Portland last night, playing their 3rd in four nights (which includes a game in the higher altitude of Denver) and 4th game in six days. Their last three games have come against the much tougher Western Conference too. Both teams are fighting for a better seeding spot in their Conference, but the Clippers have been at home, are rested and should be focused off two straight close wins. The Pacers 22nd ranked road defensive efficiency unit catches up to them here against a Clippers offense that ranks 1st in efficiency their last five games.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Calgary over Columbus, Sunday at 9:05 PM ET

The Flames are offering great value on home ice. Calgary enters this game having won 12 of their last 15 games on home ice. While the Flames have been particularly hot on home ice, the Blue Jackets have lost 3 straight on enemy ice. Perhaps even more concerning about all the losing away from home is the fact that Columbus totaled only 1 goal in those 3 road games! Going further back, the Jackets have scored a total of only 8 goals in their last 6 road games. Columbus has lost 14 of its last 26 games overall and is feeling the pressure of possibly missing the post-season. Conversely, Calgary is currently in the top spot in the Pacific Division and actually got some help when Vegas won at San Jose last night. The Flames are coming off a loss at Winnipeg but entered that game having won 10 of its last 14 games. Calgary has won 23 of 36 (including 8 of 12 this season) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Blue Jackets have lost 8 of their last 12 games against teams that are currently in playoff position and the Flames are one of the top teams in the league. Bet CALGARY

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Hofstra +9.5 over NC State - Tuesday at 7 PM ET on ESPN2

You have to wonder what NC State’s motivation level will be here?  They were expecting to get into the Big Dance and their Athletic Director was complaining after the snub.  Keep in mind they were in the NCAA tourney last year so it will be tough for the returning players to get overly excited about the NIT.  We’re guessing the mindset of the Wolfpack players tonight won’t be great.  There is more to it than that however.  This is a dangerous match up for NC State.  Hofstra is a very good team that finished the season 27-7 and at one point during the season won 16 consecutive games.  They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is excited to be playing a Power 5 team in the opening round.  Hofstra is a very good offensive team scoring 83 PPG which makes it very tough to blow this team out.  Only 2 of their 7 losses came by more than 10 points and their worst loss of the year was a 14 point setback.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG% and 12th in 3-point FG%.  They get to the line a lot with over 21% of their points coming from the charity stripe and when they do they hit 80% as a team (2nd best in the nation).  Hofstra also protects the ball very well turning it over only 14% of the time which is the 4th fewest in the country.  That’s a bad mix for an NC State defense that pressures the ball, thrives on turnovers, and fouls a lot.  The Wolpack weren’t a great home team this year losing 4 games while Hofstra is comfortable on the road where they were 12-6 this year (away & neutral).  This game is being played at Reynolds Coliseum which is actually not the normal home court for NC State but home to the women’s basketball program.  The men only played one game here this year and that was way back on Dec 5th.  We like Hofstra to give NC State all they can handle tonight and easily cover this spread.

ASA play UNDER 221 Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – With money and tickets coming in on the Over here, yet the line fluctuated down, we will bet Under here. The line was set higher than it should have been from the opener as the Celtics have played five straight higher scoring games. But those five games have come against the Hawks, Kings (twice), Lakers and Clippers who are all ranked top 10 in pace. The tempo tonight is going to be much slower as the Nuggets are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.9 possessions per game. In their last five games the Nugs are playing even slower yet at just 94.5 possessions per game. Both teams are top ten in offensive efficiency but also top 11 in defensive efficiency. Prior to their most recent two home games against the fast-paced Kings and Hawks (1st and 2nd) the Celtics had played three straight Unders at home against Houston, Washington and Portland. Houston and Portland have some similar characteristics as Denver tonight. These two teams average fewer total points per game overall on the season, Denver averages 217 total points per game on the road while Boston averages 222 at home.  The Nuggets have stayed under in 6 straight road games against the good teams in the league with a winning percentage of .600 or better. When these same two teams met in early November the total was set at 209.5 so you can see for yourself the value with tonight’s number. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: LA Clippers -6 over Brooklyn Nets 9PM ET – We were counting the Clippers as a “winner” in their last game against the Bulls, as they were up 15-points late, but then let the backdoor cover happen. Count that as a lesson learned which won’t happen here against the Nets, especially with the smaller number. Prior to their two most recent games, the Clippers had won 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG, and they’ve hit 6 of their last seven, all by a margin of more than today’s spread. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.4PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been good their past five games as they rank 7th in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +5.4PPG. They also have the best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span as they average 1.184 points per possession. The Nets are in a touch scheduling situation here as they played last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd straight road game against a playoff team from the West. Brooklyn was a +7.5-point dog in OKC, plus 9 in Utah and those two teams are within two games of the Clippers in the West. The Nets lost both games by 12 and 16 points. Brooklyn is pretty much entrenched in the 6th – 8th seed in the East so this game isn’t as important to them. The Clippers on the other hand are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed in the West which would be home court in the first round so they have way more to play for. Brooklyn is just 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET

MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game.  These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title.  The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control.  “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game.  MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten.  That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome.  Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one.  In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings.  We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions.  MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%.  Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27.  Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here.  MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half.  Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes.  The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here.  We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season.  We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship.

ASA play on: #514 Denver Nuggets -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET – At first glance this line looks high considering the Pacers are a top 4 seed in the East and fighting for their playoff seeding lives. But Denver also has a lot to play for as they sit just one game behind the Warriors for the top overall record in the West. The Nuggets are one of a handful of teams that can win the NBA Championship and as they have 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league and are 12th in DEFF. Their efficiency numbers at home are even better yet and they win on their home court by an average of 11.2PPG which is the second-best number in the league. The Pacers have some solid road efficiency numbers and an average road differential of -.3PPG which is 9th best but that clearly won’t get a cover today in Denver. When we evaluate the spread on this game, we can compare the Pacers last two road games in Philly and Milwaukee where they were +6 and +10 but got blown out in each. Denver is coming off a very close home win over a bad Dallas team which should serve as a wake-up call here. The Nuggets are 15-8 SU against the East this season and against comparable Eastern Conference teams at home they’ve beaten Philly by 16, Toronto by 8 and Boston by 9. They did lose to the Bucks at home, but Milwaukee is on another level. In usual fashion we will play contrarian here and go opposite of the money. BET DENVER MINUS!

ASA play on: UNDER 231 Golden State @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30PM ET – This is clearly the biggest game on the card today and a marquee matchup between two Titans in the Western Conference. The number set by Vegas is significantly higher than what our math model suggests which is not a huge surprise considering the two teams involved. This will be the third time these two teams are meeting this season and the first two clashes had Totals set of 220 and 223. Both games stayed Under those numbers with combined points of 208 and 218. These are two of the top 10 teams in terms of pace of play this season BUT in their last five games both are playing slower than season averages. That change in style has led to 6 straight Unders for Golden State and 8 of their last ten. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game Under run and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last ten. Golden State has been a defensive juggernaut the past few seasons, but their defensive efficiency has dropped off significantly this season. Even with that dip though, they are 12th in the league in points allowed per game on the road this year. OKC has the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league as they allow just 1.063 points per possession.  The Thunder’s last three home games have finished with 212, 194 and 204 total points being scored. Without scoring machine Kevin Durant in this game for the Warriors we expect to see a scoring dip for the Warriors (scored just 106 in Houston last game). The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings between these two teams on this floor, 17-5 Under the last 22. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year

We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely.  They are a team that if motivated is very good.  They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia.  They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle.  Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential.  This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated.  One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11.  USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19).  ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long.  They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games.  Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting.  Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost.  They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1.  ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game!  Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining!  ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining.  Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both.  However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games.  Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4.  Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3.  Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off.  There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st.  Take Western Kentucky.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10:30PM ET – We successfully played against the Clippers in their last game against the Blazers as they were in a tough scheduling situation. Now with rest, we expect them to return to the form that saw them win 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG. Included in that five-game winning streak the Clippers beat a similar team to the Bulls, the Knicks, by 21-points when they were favored by 10. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the post season in their last game and it clearly looks like they’ve quit on the season. The Bulls are just 1-5 SU their last six games and the last three losses have come by 8, 23 and 16 points. Their most recent defeat was at home to the Lakers by 16 and the other LA team isn’t nearly as good as this one. Chicago has the 6th worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -7PPG, rank 28th in offensive efficiency on the road and 17th in road defensive efficiency. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.3PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been really good their past five games as they rank 2nd in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +8.2PPG. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span. The Bulls have not covered a came in their last six road contests against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600 and will nothing to play for here, the Bulls get beat by double-digits. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year

This line looks like a trap to us.  The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th?  Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above.  We like Colorado here.  Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team.  Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those.  The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games.  Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT.  Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8.  During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford).  Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field.  The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league.  They are confident and dangerous right now.  Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 127 Points - Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Friday at 3 PM ET

This is a low number for a total but we don’t expect these two to get there.  Nebraska is playing their 3rd game in 3 days so shooting legs will be an issue.  They are a very thin team with only 6 scholarship players remaining.  The Huskers were already a slow paced team but due to their limited numbers they have gone very slow in this tourney with just 105 and 101 shot attempts (both teams combined) in their first two games in this tourney.  They’ve totaled 128 & 130 in those games and now they face the slowest paced team and the top defense in the Big Ten so we expect lower numbers than the first two games today.  We had a winner on the UNDER yesterday in the Nebraska – Maryland game as they scored 129 but that was very deceiving as the game was on pace to score less than 115 for much of the game.  They combined for 52 points in the final 10:00 minutes and it still only reached 130.  Wisconsin will be playing their first game in this tourney so we look for them to struggle shooting the ball at the United Center.  The Badgers have gone 12 straight games without scoring 70 points in regulation and we don’t expect it here.  The Nebraska defense has held their first 2 opponents in this tourney to 61 points each so we anticipate mid 60’s at best for Wisconsin.  The UW defense has held their Big Ten opponents to just 60 PPG (first in the conference) and we’d be shocked in the Huskers got out of the 50’s in this game.  Wisconsin’s defense has not allowed more than 67 points in ANY of their last 15 games (in regulation) and over half of those opponents (8) did not top 60 points.  In their lone meeting this year @ Nebraska, the oddmakers set the total at 128 which is nearly where we sit here in a much different circumstance.  The Huskers were full strength in that game and it was in at Pinnacle Arena which is much more conducive to shooting well.  Even with that the two combined to score only 113 combined points.  We would lean Wisconsin in this game but with the spread sitting at -8 currently, that could be a bit dangerous in a low scoring game.  We feel the UNDER is the much better way to go here.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – This isn’t a good spot for the Thunder as they are off a game last night and have a HUGE game on deck with the Warriors. OKC was lucky to cover last night as the Nets outplayed them for 85% of the game but didn’t get calls late. The Thunder took a lead with 6-minutes to play which then pushed to double-digits and eventually a cover. The Thunder starters logged big minutes last night and OKC’s depth is a concern playing back to back nights. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but the Pacers situation is a little more desperate as they are just 2-3 SU their past five games. The Pacers have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +8.7PPG which can be attributed to their #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit at home allowing just 1.015 points per possession. You can see for yourself the value in this line as the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were favored by 1-point. It looks very easy to take the Thunder on the road here as they are one of the best teams in the West but we’re not about to bet the way Vegas wants us to. Play Indiana at home minus the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -2 over Minnesota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

We’ll ride the red hot team here and that is Penn State.  There is a reason the Nittany Lions with a record of 14-17 are favored over a Minnesota team that is 19-12 and fighting for an NCAA bid.  PSU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 winning 7 of 10 down the stretch after starting the conference season 0-10.  Even when they lost their first 10 conference games they were very competitive for the most part with 7 of those losses coming by 7 points or less or in OT.  They tied for 10th in conference play but they are power rated as the 6th best team in the Big Ten behind only Michigan St, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland.  PSU’s only losses since February 1st came @ Ohio State by 4 back when the Buckeyes were actually still playing fairly well, @ Purdue who won the Big 10, and @ Wisconsin by 4.  They’ve been fantastic defensively down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to just 63 PPG on 38% shooting.  They held all 5 of those opponents to 1.00 point per possession or less which is simply great defense.  That defense will be a problem for a Minnesota offense that is shooting barely 40% of their last 5 games and averaged only 60 PPG in road games this season.  Unlike the surging Lions, Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games down the stretch.  They are currently in the Big Dance in most projections but the Gophs do have some pressure on them to not go out right away in the Big 10 tourney giving the committee a reason to possibly leave them out.  PSU is playing loose and with house money.   These two met once this season in Minnesota when Penn State was in the midst of their 10 game losing streak.  Despite that the Lions almost won on the road losing 65-64 blowing an 11 point second half lead.  PSU is playing much better than they were at that time while Minnesota has dropped a notch.  They have one of the top players in the league with Lamar Stevens  (20 PPG) who is very tough to guard inside the paint.  He should eat up a Minnesota defense that ranks 12th in the Big Ten at defending inside the arc allowing 50% shooting by opponents.  Penn State gets the win and cover here.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135 Points - Nebraska vs Maryland, Thursday at 3 PM ET

We were a bit unlucky with our UNDER play in the Big Ten last night as Northwestern vs Illinois landed on 122 on regulation (we had UNDER 135.5) but went over the total in overtime.  The other Big Ten game yesterday (Nebraska vs Rutgers) totaled 129 to both games failed to reach 130 in regulation.  As we stated yesterday, the United Center is a tough venue for shooting, especially when teams have not played here.  The last 2 times Chicago hosted the Big Ten tourney the average points scored were 121 and 133.  Nebraska shot just 40% yesterday vs Rutgers and made only 3 of 15 from beyond the arc.  Today the thin Huskers (just 6 players played 10+ minutes) face a much tougher Maryland defense that is very long inside.  The Huskers will have massive problems scoring inside due to the Terps length which means they’ll have to make 3’s which is tough in this venue.  On top of that the Huskers aren’t a good 3 point shooting team in general hitting just 32% in Big Ten play this year (9th in the conference).  NU benefitted yesterday from going to the line 32 times and making 23 which won’t happen today.  Maryland will slow this game down (13th in the Big Ten in tempo) and we anticipate they’ll struggle shooting in their first game at the UC.  The Terps aren’t a high scoring team to begin with and playing here won’t change that.  Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 70-65 type game.  Here’s the problem, Maryland has scored more than 70 points only ONCE in their last 12 games.  This is the third time these two have faced each other this year so they are very familiar with each other which will make it tough to score.  In their first meeting they totaled 142 points but combined to shoot 47% overall and 43% from beyond the arc.  In their most recent meeting they totaled just 105 in a 60-45 Maryland win.  This one should be low scoring and we don’t see it getting out of the 120’s.  Take the UNDER.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -1 over Florida State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET

Tech won easily yesterday beating Miami by a final score of 71-56.  They jumped out to a 23-8 lead midway through the first half and never trailed in the game.  Because of that, they didn’t have to expend any extra energy and were able to get used to the surroundings and shooting back drop at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.   We think that gives the Hokies an advantage over FSU in this game.  The Noles won 12 of their last 13 games, finished 4th in the ACC one game ahead of Va Tech, are ranked higher in the polls than the Hokies, yet they are underdogs in this game?  There is a reason for that.  FSU played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC this year facing UNC, Duke, and UVA each only once (lost all 3).  Over their final 5 games, FSU was 4-1 but was not overly impressive.  They were blasted by 18 @ UNC, came from 10 down at home to beat Notre Dame (3-15 ACC record) by 7, held on at home to beat NC State by 5, and came from 7 down at half @ Wake (lowest rated team in the ACC) to win by 8.  Their other game during that stretch comes into play here.  That’s because it was a home game for FSU vs this Va Tech team.  The Hokies led by 14 at half and blew the lead losing in OT.  That gives VT some extra motivation here as they were hoping to get this rematch.  The Hokies are one of the top shooting teams in the ACC (2nd in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point %) and they are facing an FSU team that defends the paint well but struggles to defend beyond the arc (12th in the ACC allowing 35% from deep).  VT should also get their fair share of points at the charity stripe as FSU fouls a lot (14th in FGA/FTA) and Tech hits over 78% from the line as a team.  We think both of those things play a huge role here as we expect Va Tech to shoot well again on Wednesday and gets the revenge win.

ASA play on: UNDER 230 Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets, 9:30PM ET – We hope these same two teams meet in the Playoffs as it will be a fantastic series. In one of our more recent picks we talked about betting Houston right now to win the NBA Finals. The lessons learned from last season will have them ready and they’re as dynamic as any team in the NBA. Bet that Future wager before you lose all value. On to tonight’s bet. We don’t see these two teams reaching this O/U number tonight. The Rockets are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, the slowest in the NBA the past 5 games at just 95.2 possessions per game. Golden State is not as fast as most think ranking 10th overall in the league. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined to score exactly 230 total points in Golden State. When they last played in Houston though they totaled just 193 total points. Tonight’s game is going to have a playoff feel to it and last year in their 7 game playoff series these two teams AVERAGED 206PPG. Without Kevin Durant in the lineup the Warriors aren’t going to be their fluid offensive selves. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 136 points - Northwestern vs Illinois, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

These two in-state rivals just met on March 2nd with Illinois winning 81-76.  The total in that game was set at 136 and it went over by 21 points.  Despite that result from just 11 days ago, the oddsmakers again opened the total at 136 and it has dropped at some spots.  Hmmm.  We agree with the move and like the UNDER in this one.  In their game 11 days ago the teams combined to attempt only 112 shots which isn’t a crazy high amount.  The problem is, they MADE 50 free throws in the game.  Not attempted, but made.  That’s a ridiculously high amount and was nearly one third of the points scored in the game.  To give you an idea of how high that is, Iowa leads college basketball averaging 18 made FT’s per game.  So even if you have 2 Iowa’s play and make their average that’s only 36.  That puts that number in perspective.  Needless to say we don’t expect them to come anywhere near that number tonight.  Northwestern is the worst offensive team in the league.  They average just 60 PPG in conference play.  They have been held below 60 points in 8 of their last 12 games.  They may also be without one of their top offensive players as Vic Law (15 PPG) and even if he does play we can’t imagine he’ll be 100% after a pretty serious looking shin injury last Saturday.  Illinois will want to play this game at a fast pace but NW knows they can’t win this game if that’s how it plays out.  The Cats will want to slow this tempo down and usually if a team wants to play slow they get the pace they want.  If Illinois doesn’t get the pace they want, they aren’t great in the half court.  They shoot just 43% in league play and against the 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, & Michigan) the Illini got to 70 points just once in five games.  Northwestern is very solid defensively (19th nationally in defensive efficiency) and while the Illini can struggle on that end of the court, we don’t think the Cats are potent enough offensively to take advantage of it.  The United Center in Chicago has always been a tough shooting venue for college teams.  It’s a huge arena and the back drop makes it tough.  The last two Big 10 tourneys played here were in 2013 and 2015 and the average points scored in those tournaments was 121 and 133 respectively.  We like the UNDER in this one.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – The public money has flowed in on the Thunder yet the oddsmakers are reluctant to move this line any higher than it is. That tells us they over-compensated on the Thunder from the get-go. Brooklyn has earned their spot in the East with a great second half of the season surge with a 27-15 SU streak since early January. Most recently the Nets have won 4 straight games overall and 3 of their last four on the road. OKC has hit a hiccup here in the final stretch of the regular season which has seen them go 4-6 SU their last ten games. Granted, the injury to Paul George certainly didn’t help. But the Thunder haven’t been their usual self at home with a 2-2 SU record their last four games but the two wins came by a combined 5-points. The Thunder home differential is +6.5PPG which is 9th best in the league. Brooklyn is around ‘average’ or 16th in the NBA with a road differential of -2.7PPG. The Nets differentials in their past five games are outstanding as they are +9.2PPG, have shot over 45% as a team and held foes to under 38% shooting which is fantastic. OKC has struggled shooting it of late as they’ve hit just 42.3% in their last five games. The Nets have covered 5 of the last six here and will grab the cash as a dog in this setting.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +1.5 over Nebraska, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These two teams were heading in opposite directions over the last half of the Big Ten season.  Rutgers has improved throughout the season and they’ve become a very dangerous opponents.  After starting just 1-6 in Big 10 play, the Knights went 6-7 down the stretch.  A few of those losses as well were close to being wins (lost by 2 in miracle shot at buzzer vs Iowa, lost by 1 to red hot PSU team, lost in OT vs Illinois).  The Huskers, on the other hand, started the Big 10 season with a 3-3 record and then went downhill fast from there.  They were just 3-11 over their last 14 games and 2 of those 3 wins came by 1 point and 2 points.  Their most recent win at home last Sunday was a bit of a miracle as they trailed a plummeting Iowa team (Hawkeyes had lost 3 straight games by 20, 20, and 16 points) by 8 points with 45 seconds remaining.  Nebraska then proceeded to make 3 three pointers in the final 40 seconds to push the game to OT where they won by 2.  Fortunate to say the least at home vs a team that was playing terrible basketball coming in.  The Husker defense has been abysmal this year ranking 14th in defensive efficiency (conference games), 14th in 3-point defense, and they’ve allowed at least 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. Their offense hasn’t been much better averaging just 63 PPG since they lost starter Isaiah Copeland for the season 11 games ago.  Despite their win last Sunday, they looked to us down the stretch like a team that was ready for the season to be over.  Their head coach Tim Miles is most likely gone at the end of the season and the vibe around the program is negative right now.  Rutgers is the exact opposite.  The team is improving and their head coach Steve Pikiell has this team at 7 conference wins after they ended with only 3 each of the last 2 years.  Their lone meeting this year was a Rutgers win (76-69 final score) and that was when Nebraska still had Copeland in the line up.  We think Rutgers should be favored here and we like the Knights to win this game.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -3 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET

Love this spot for Boise.  They are in revenge mode here after throwing up a stinker at home vs CSU at the end of February.  The Broncos lost that game 76-62 which was their worst home loss of the season.  We considered CSU in that game but didn’t pull the trigger as Boise was in a terrible spot and we could see a flat performance coming for that game.  That’s because the Broncos were off a brutal 3 game stretch in which they played 3 of the top 4 teams in the MWC (Utah St, Fresno St, and San Diego State) all to the wire and lost all 3.  Watching their game vs CSU we could see the Broncos were burnt out both physically and mentally after their grueling stretch in which they had a legitimate shot at 3-0 but ended up 0-3.  The Rams shot almost 60% in that game while Boise shot just 39%.  If you simply look at BSU’s results down the stretch in looks like they were struggling.  That is not the case.  The did lose 6 of their last 7, however 5 of those 6 losses came down to the final seconds of each game.  Their loss margins in those games were 1, 2, 6, 4 in OT, and 7 in OT with four of those setbacks coming on the road.  This team is MUCH better than their 7-11 MWC record.  They are 12-19 on the season yet they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 71-68!  Despite finishing tied for 7th with 2 other teams, the Broncs power rate as the 5th best team in the MWC behind only Nevada, Utah St, Fresno, and San Diego St.  CSU was in a fantastic spot on Saturday in their home finale facing a UNLV team with absolutely nothing to play for (already locked into a first round game vs San Diego State).  Despite that, the Rams couldn’t get it done at home and lost by 5.  After beating Boise in late February, the Rams went on to lose their final 3 games, 2 coming at home.  One of their top shooters, Anthony Masinton-Bonner (11 PPG), might miss this one as well with an Achilles injury.  Boise has the advantage of just playing at the Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas losing to UNLV by 4.  CSU has not played here since January 3rd.  We like Boise here to pick up a win and cover.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -2 over LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET -  Let’s first address the fact that the Clippers are playing well and clearly haven’t quit since the trading deadline. It’s a testament to Doc Rivers and his staff keeping this team together and playing for each other. But we must fade them in this situation. The Clippers are coming off a blowout win over the Celtics last night and now face a stiff test against the Blazers. Portland has fallen from the 3rd seed in the West to the 5th (no home court in the first round) and have just a 2-game lead on the Clippers. Portland is just a half-game behind the Thunder for 4th in the Western Conference. The Blazers recently had a solid road trip going 6-2 SU with quality wins over playoff bound: Boston, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Charlotte who is currently 1.5 games out in the East. The Clippers have gotten two good wins at home in their last two games over Boston and OKC but prior to that their three most recent home wins were against the Knicks, Mavs and Suns who have a combined 56-145 SU record. Portland comes into this game with 2 days rest while the Clippers played last night so fatigue becomes a factor here. The Clippers are just 3-5 ATS as a dog in this price range while the Blazers are 7-4 ATS as a small favorite. The Trailblazers are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings and get a much-needed win tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +8 over UL Monroe, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court.  Their most recent meeting was @ UL Monroe in late February a game in which ULM won by 6.  App State dominated the boards (+10) which led to 11 more shot attempts.  However, Monroe shot the lights out hitting 51% overall and a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc.  Even with Monroe hooting 7% above their season average and almost 20% above their seasonal 3-point average, the game went to the wire.  The largest lead ULM had in the 2nd half was 8-points (which is tonight’s spread) until there was under 1:00 minute remaining and ASU was forced to foul.  The spread then pushed to 10 but App State was able to pull within 6 to close out the game.  We feel Appalachian State is a bit undervalued here.  If you look at their conference record it tells you they are 6-12 on the year.  However, they began the season 0-6 and went 6-6 from that point on.  Of their 12 Sun Belt losses, 8 came by 7 points or less so they were competitive in a majority of their conference setbacks.  The Mountaineers were 2-3 on the road since January 25th with their losses coming by 3 at Texas State (2nd rated team in the Sun Belt), by 10 at UT Arlington (4th rated team on the Sun Belt) and by 6 at Louisiana Monroe.  The Warhawks finished the regular season with a 9-9 conference record but they were just 5-7 over their last 12 games.  Of their 9 Sun Belt wins, only 2 came by more than 10 points and both were vs Arkansas LR who finished tied for last in the league.  ULM is the WORST defensive team in the Sun Belt in both defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% allowed.  Tough to lay this many points with a team like that in a do or die setting where both teams should bring their best.  We see this one playing out very similar to their meeting a few weeks ago and another down to the wire contest.  Take the points. With Appalachian State.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego +5 over St Mary's, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a very unique situation which we feels favors San Diego.  The Toreros have already played 3 games in the WCC tourney while this will be St Mary’s first.  San Diego blew out Portland, Santa Clara, and a very good BYU team on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Those games were all at the same venue which is the Orleans in Las Vegas.  Thus, not only is San Diego playing very well, they are used to this stadium.  If this was their fourth game in four days, we’d obviously leave this game alone, however they had yesterday off.  Meanwhile, St Mary’s drew a bye into the semi-finals and hasn’t played a game period since March 2nd.  To have 9 days off at this point in the season, potentially ruining your season long rhythm as a team is not a good thing in our opinion.  We expect the Gaels to be a bit off tonight because of the long layoff.  San Diego is one of the most veteran teams in the nation starting 4 seniors and 1 junior.  Their record this year (21-13) is actually a bit deceiving as they had 2 key players miss 9 combined games through the middle of the conference season.  They finished 7th in the league but we view them as a top 4 team in the WCC and so do most power rankings.  This type of team is very dangerous come tourney time as they are better than most think and playing with nothing to lose.  On top of that, their talented seniors know this is their last go around and now they are just 2 wins away from the Big Dance.  Their defense has been absolutely stellar in this tourney holding all 3 opponents to under 0.80 points per possession, including 3rd seeded BYU who they thumped 80-57 on Saturday!  Their 3 wins in the WCC tourney have come by margins of 23, 20, and 17 points.  St Mary’s is solid but down from past year’s in our ratings.  They are beatable especially in this spot.  The Gaels won both games vs San Diego this year however in 1 of those the Toreros were not at full strength.  That should give this red hot, veteran San Diego team extra motivation tonight.  We think they have a solid shot at the upset and getting +5 here is a nice cushion.  Take San Diego. 

ASA play on: UNDER 226 Boston Celtics @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET – The betting markets came in with money on the Over here but the oddsmakers adjusted their number down, inviting more Over tickets. We will play contrarian and invest UNDER! The Clippers are 4-1 Under their last five games and those five games came against some of the fastest paced teams in the league. L.A. played OKC, LAL and Sacramento who are top 4 teams in the NBA when it comes to tempo. The Celtics come into this contest with the 18th slowest paced offensive in the league and that’s led to 6 Unders and just 1 Over in their last seven games. In their most recent game against the Lakers, the two teams combined for 227 Total points, but again that was versus a faster Lakers team that doesn’t play defense. The Celtics have the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.067 points per possession. Boston has played 4 straight games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams and the highest output was 227. The Clippers have held their last five opponents to an average of 41.4% shooting and 108PPG. With both teams jockeying for playoff position we expect a tighter game than usual. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: UNDER 223 Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET – The Pistons are the 26th slowest paced team on the season while Brooklyn is 11th fastest. Both teams are 17th or worse in offensive efficiency and both are 14th or better in defensive efficiency. So how do you assume they’ll score more than the league average in total points tonight? We don’t! If we look at how these teams have done recently, we find the Nets have the 7th most efficient defense in their last five games while Detroit is 10th best. The Pistons scoring is up dramatically their last five game but let’s factor in their schedule. They’ve played the Bulls twice; Minnesota and Cleveland and those teams are 27th or worse in defensive efficiency their last five games. The Pistons are on a strong Over run right now at 8-2 their last ten but examine what those numbers were that Vegas set. Seven of those eight Overs had totals of 222 or less, meaning an over-correction on tonight’s game, especially with Detroit coming off a game where they put up 131. Brooklyn is a team that plays fast against fast teams, slow against slower teams. In recent games when the Nets have played similar teams (Heat, Spurs) to the Pistons they’ve totaled 205 and 186 points. When Detroit is playing without rest this season those games have averaged 212.7PPG and that’s about where this one ends up. BET UNDER!

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Flyers are -270 favorites on the money line. Of course, we're not going there! However, there is great value with Philadelphia by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line. That line is a available at even money and there is plenty of solid support for the expectation of this game being a Flyers win by two or more goals. The Senators have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The average margin of defeat for Ottawa in those 10 games was 2.4 goals. The Flyers have won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Each of Philadelphia's last 4 victories have come by a margin of 3 goals. The Sens went into "fire sale" mode at the trade deadline and their recent level of play reflects that. Conversely the Flyers are fighting hard and very much alive in the playoff race. Philly has won 2 of its last 3 meetings with the Senators and both of those victories came by a margin of 2 more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and no juice) with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASA play on: #511 Houston Rockets -9 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET – We’re going to give you some added advice with this bet Sunday and that’s a future bet on the Rockets to win it all this season. Don’t wait to bet it either as you’ll steadily lose value as the season wears on. The Rockets are playing lights out right now with a 7-game winning streak as they climb the standings in the West. The Rockets have been impressive with three straight double-digit wins over three of the best teams in the East. They also have a 6-point win in Golden State in this stretch of games. So even though we are laying a premium price on this game as a 9-point road favorite it’s justified. The Mavs look like they’ve called it a season with four straight losses and just one win in their last ten games. In their last nine losses all but one has come by 10 or more points. The Mavericks have beaten the Rockets twice this season, so they won’t take them for granted here. Houston is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the point with the Rockets today!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 141 Points - ETSU vs Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET

These two met twice this year and both games were grinders for the most part.  The final scores were both very deceiving as they put up 141 points in their first meeting and 154 in the 2nd meeting.  The first game was on pace to go well under the total for the vast majority.  In fact, the two teams had 124 combined points with just 1:40 remaining in the game.  They scored 17 points from that point on to get to 141.  If you divide the game up into 10 minute segments these two scored 33, 29, 33, and 46 points so you can see they went crazy late.  In the second meeting the game was tied at 64-64 in regulation but went to OT where they ended up with 154 points.  The points per possession numbers in that game were very high with both teams averaging more than 1.10 PPP yet they still only reached 128 in regulation.  These are two of the top defensive teams in the SOCON (2nd and 4th in defensive efficiency) and the tempo shouldn’t be overly quick here with Wofford ranking last in tempo in the conference and ETSU ranking 6th.  Both defenses have played better down the stretch than even their overall numbers indicate with Wofford allowing 60 PPG over their last 5 games on 41% shooting by their opponents while ETSU has allowed 67 PPG on 41% shooting during the same span.  With the season on the line for both in this do or die game, we expect the defenses to play as hard as they have all season.  Play the UNDER in this game.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis -8 over Tulsa, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

We can’t imagine that Senior Night will mean more to any other team in the nation than Memphis.  That’s because the Tigers start 5 seniors who will all be playing their final regular season home game on Saturday night.  The Tigers have locked up the 5 seed in the upcoming AAC tourney and while some may view that as a negative (motivation?) we view it as a positive in this spot.  They already know where they sit for next week’s conference tourney so they can go out and just play with no pressure whatsoever.  They will have plenty of motivation with their seniors leading the way.  The Tigers also out to avenge their worst loss of the conference season, a 96-79 setback @ Tulsa.  We were on Tulsa in that game as it set up perfectly for the Golden Hurricane.  They were at home off 3 straight losses vs the 3 top teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  They were also catching Memphis going on the road after upsetting UCF by 20 points.  The game played out just as we thought it would with Tulsa winning outright as an underdog.  Memphis is playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses coming in tight games @ UCF and @ Cincinnati (by 2).  They’ve had a full week to get ready for this home finale vs a Tulsa team that has played a very easy schedule down the stretch.  They’ve faced ECU & Tulane, the two worst teams in the conference, both twice since February 14th.  The other two teams they faced during that stretch both turned into double digit losses vs Temple and Wichita State.  Tulsa is just 3-7 on the road this year and they’ve won only twice @ Memphis in the last 16 meetings.  We like Memphis to roll up a big win at home on Saturday.  Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: #574 Minnesota Timberwolves -7 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET – Are you asking yourself, why are the T’Wolves favored by 7-points in this matchup? We feel the number isn’t high enough and our computer analytics predict a double-digit win by Minnesota. Despite a disappointing overall season, the Wolves are 21-10 SU at home with a +/- differential at home of +5.4PPG (12th in NBA). They have some solid home wins of late over OKC by 11, Sacramento by 7, Houston by 10, LA Clippers by 10 and a 1-point loss to Denver. The Wolves home/road dichotomies are drastically different which is why they are an attractive bet here. The other part of the equation here is Washington on the road and playing without rest on the road for the second consecutive night. The Wiz are 9-25 SU away from home this season with a +/- differential of MINUS -8.3PPG WHICH IS 4TH WORST in the NBA. The Wolves will put up plenty of points here against a Wizards defense that is 28th in the NBA in road shooting percentage defense against and last in the league in points allowed per game away from home at 119.1PPG. This is also a quick revenge game for the Wolves as they were just beat in Washington by the Wizards 135-121 earlier this month. Washington is just 2-8 ATS the last 10 here and it gets a loss worse after tonight. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday.  We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year.  However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss.  They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games.  While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record.  They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots.  9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads.  They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference.  They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen.  They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive.  They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12.  Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT).  The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here.  When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts!  KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale.

ASA play on: #555 Utah Jazz -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – We are going contrarian here, as we like to do, and bet against the hot Grizzlies who have covered 3 straight. In fact, we just bet on Memphis the other night when they covered against Portland but let’s examine that game which has solid indicators for our bet against them here. Portland was wrapping up a brutal stretch of 7 road games and were favored by -5.5 at Memphis. The Blazers led by 16-points in the game but ran out of gas late and Memphis grabbed the upset home win. Now Utah comes into this game, who we rank higher in our metrics, laying less than Portland was the other night. Plus, Memphis is coming off a satisfying win over Portland and in for a letdown. Memphis 16-17 SU at home on the season with an average differential of plus + .1PPG which is 22nd worse in the NBA. Their home offensive efficiency numbers are awful as they average just 1.051 points per possession – last in the NBA! Utah is 16-16 SU on the road this year but they have the 7th best road differential in the NBA at plus +.7PPG. The Jazz shoot it well on the road this year with the 9th best road field goal percentage at 46.4%. The Jazz have recently beat a hot New Orleans team on the road by 10, won in Denver by 7, lost in OT by 1 at OKC (one of best home courts in NBA) and lost by 7 at Golden State. Now they step WAY down in talent to face a ‘fat’ Grizzlies team. Memphis is 2-3 SU their last five at home with the wins against Portland (tough spot) and the fading Lakers. They lost to Chicago, the Clippers by 6 and San Antonio. Utah wins this game by double digits!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 140.5 Points - Illinois State vs Drake, Friday at 7 PM ET

These two have played twice this year with neither game coming near the posted total.  In their first match up the total was posted at 143 and they combined to score 124 points.  Their more recent game was on February 24th and the oddsmakers dropped that total to 141 and they combined to score just 127.  They weren’t terrible offensively as the two teams combined to shoot 45% over those 2 outings yet they still were very low scoring.  That’s two meetings that went under the total by 33 combined points and it wasn’t as if both teams shot terribly.  Now they’ve dropped this total to 139 but that’s not nearly a big enough adjustment in our opinion.  Unless both surprisingly go off and hit 50%+ we don’t see this getting close to 1140.  These two know each other very well and their third meeting should be no different than their first two meetings.  They are playing at a neutral site in St Louis that has not been conducive to scoring.  Last night the two MVC tourney games here totaled 132 and 125 points.  Only one team out of four in yesterday’s play in games shot better than 40%.  Drake will be playing their first game at this venue and Illinois State shot just 36% here last night vs an Evansville team that ranks 9th in the MVC in defensive efficiency.  Long term the MVC tourney UNDERS have been big time money makers.  Since 2005 the UNDERS in MVC tourney games here in St Louis are 85-44 (66%)!   

ASA play on: #547 Indiana Pacers +10.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET. Well, we hit two more NBA plays last night which adds to our incredible NBA 84% winning streak of 21-4. It just goes to show how dialed in our math model is right now. Tonight, the numbers are crunched, and we like the double-digits with Indiana over Milwaukee. Yes, we are aware of the Bucks average point differential which is best in the NBA at +9.1PPG overall, +12.8PPG at home but this is not a good spot for them. Milwaukee has lost two straight, which hasn’t happened all season, and most bettors will look at this game and say it’s a ‘bounce’ back situation for a good team. But we are contrarian here and see another angle to this game which is fatigue and pressure is starting to get to a young Bucks team. The Bucks have shot under 39% in their last two games and now face a Pacers team that is 5th in the NBA in defensive FG% against at 44.8%. The numbers are starting to catch up to Milwaukee which is evident in their 1-3 ATS run as a home double-digit chalk. Speaking of double-digits, the Pacers haven’t been a dog of 10 or more points this season. Indiana has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +.8PPG with a 17-14 SU road record. The Bucks own the best defensive efficiency number in the league, but Indiana is second and more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. Grab the points with the Pacers!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Minnesota at Tampa Bay,Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Lightning are the best team in the NHL and their 12-1 run their last 13 games shows just how dangerous they can be in the offensive zone. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4.3 goals per game during their 12-1 hot streak. . The Bolts are hosting the Wild early Thursday evening and Minnesota is enjoying a recent resurgence. The Wild are on a 7-game points streak (5-0-2) as they have not lost a game in regulation in any of their last 7 games. Of course that streak is expected to come to an end here at Tampa Bay but certainly not without a fight. Minnesota has scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last 5 road games. Going further back, the Wild have scored 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 11 road games. Of course if each team gets to 3 goals here we have ourselves a winner as this total is set at 6 goals and would have to then land on at least 7. Minnesota has been struggling on the penalty kill and has allowed 11 power play goals in their last 11 games. The over is 12-7 this season when the Wild are off a division game. The over is 16-8 this season when the Lightning are off a non-conference game. The last two games between these teams have resulted in an average of 8 goals scored and our computer math model is forecasting the final score in this one to land on 7 or 8 goals. Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay early Thursday evening

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR

UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55.  The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half.  Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight.  The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game.  This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting.  Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena.  Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record.  However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight.  Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less.  They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight.  In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%.  That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense.  They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line.  40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC.  That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games.  This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation.  A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go.  We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight.

ASA  play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We’ve said this exact same thing the past two games that we’ve played against the Lakers, but the LeBron charade is pretty much over. He is solely responsible for the Lakers demise this season. He clearly doesn’t have the leadership skills to command the respect of his teammates and it’s always been a matter of time before his teams see through him. I’m not saying he’s not one of the most gifted players in the league as he is. But his ego has gotten the best of him and it’s infected the rest of the team, coaching staff and organization. And now that he’s quit playing hard for the season this team is obviously done. It’s been easy money betting against Los Angeles, so we’ll do it again. According to our rankings we have Denver as a top 5 team in the league with an offensive efficiency rating that is 3rd best in the league, a defensive efficiency that is 11th. Even on the road they have solid efficiency numbers ranking in the top half of the league in both OEFF and DEFF despite a .500 overall road record. The Nuggets have the 7th best point differential in the league right now in their past five games at +4.4PPG. The Lakers are in a free-fall with a 10-20 SU record their last 30 games, 1-5 their last six. Since the return of LeBron from injury the Lakers defense has been one of the worst in the league. In their last five games the Lakers are allowing 1.143 points per possession which is 22nd in the NBA and have a negative differential of minus -5PPG. Denver comes into this game having lost three straight and will play at a peak level against the high-profile Lakers. Denver by a dozen or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65.  We’re right back on the Lobos at home here.  We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year.  New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process.  Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game.  The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other.  The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge.  They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall.  The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351).  On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise.  They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs.  Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81.  That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play.  New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play.  They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late.  The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games.  They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games.  That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired.  We like New Mexico to win their home finale.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET

These two met one time this season and we remember it well.  We were on Western KY at home favored by 6.  We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win.  UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points.  The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run.  After that, they trailed for most of the game.  WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points.  The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line.  We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here.  Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road.  Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out.  They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70.  On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points.  They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency.   The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season.  Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG.  In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY.  A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY.  We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around.

ASA play on: #532 Detroit Pistons -5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We like the situation here to bet the home team Pistons for several reasons.  Minnesota is coming off a high-profile game last night against a division rival the OKC Thunder and are also playing their 3rd game in four nights. This will also be the Wolves 4th road game in their last five, 6th in their last eight. The Wolves are just 2-7 SU when playing without rest with a negative differential of nearly 4PPG. The Wolves are all but officially eliminated from the post season as they are 6-games back with 19 to play.  Detroit on the other hand is rested, playing well and fighting for the 6th seed in the East. The 6th spot is critically important to the Pistons as that would mean a potential first round matchup with the Pacers (if the season ended today). Detroit is 8-2 SU their last ten games and have won 5 straight at home by an average of 12.2PPG. Included in those five W’s are victories over the Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets. Detroit is looking at three very winnable games in a row but need to get this win tonight first. The Wolves have the 10th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.1PPG and a big reason why is their road defense which is 27th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.161 points per possession. The Pistons have covered 7 in a row against the T’Wolves, make it 8!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points?  We agree with the number.  Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why.  Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season.  They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home.  The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3.  Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference.  Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%.  They were also plus on the boards during that stretch.  Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents.  The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season.  They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points.  The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time.  They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio.  Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road.  That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2

We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night.  This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday.  A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance.  “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.”  OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season.  Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title.  Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday.  The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record.  That has been the theme for this young KU team this year.  They really can’t be trusted on the road.  They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points.  Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here.  These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63.  The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go.  Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game.  Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team.  OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season.  This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team.  We’ll take the home dog.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +6 over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET – If you’ve followed us for any length of time you know how much we like to be on the ‘uglies’ or contrarian Sides in the NBA. A general rule of thumb we’ve lived by for the past 30 years is to not be on the team Vegas wants you to bet. The Blazers look way too good to be true in this match-up, so we’ll take the ugly Grizzlies at home plus the points. Memphis has a defensive minded backcourt with Avery Bradley and Mike Conley that can defend or neutralize the Blazers strength, Lillard and McCollum. Granted, the Grizzlies had a different roster at the time but two months ago when these two teams met in Portland the Blazers were essentially favored by the same number as today’s game. I could argue the Grizzlies are a better team after the trade for Bradley and Valanciunas. Portland is fighting for a top 4 placement in the West and have a much bigger game on deck with Oklahoma City AND this will be their 7th straight road game so how focused are they? The Blazers have a losing road record this season and a negative differential of -1.7PPG which is 13th in the league. Memphis has a losing home record on the season, but their average differential is minus -.2PPG which clearly gets us a cover here.  Despite a disappointing season the Grizzlies still have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and they can keep this game close throughout. The obvious bet here is Portland…SO TAKE MEMPHIS!

ASA play on: LA CLIPPERS +4 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – I wouldn’t bet the Lakers with someone else’s money right now. Since LeBron tried to orchestrate the trade for Anthony Davis the team has gone in the tank. The drama that follows LeBron everywhere he goes is a HUGE distraction and he’s just not a player that others want to follow. A lot of talk, but he doesn’t back it up. His playoff intensity has been embarrassing on the defensive end of the floor and he hasn’t inspired the younger players to another level.  In their last five games the Lakers have a negative differential of -6.6PPG, have allowed an average of 121PPG on 48.7% shooting by foes. Four of those last five games have come against non-playoff teams New Orleans twice, Phoenix and Memphis. The Clippers on the other hand made a big move at the trade deadline but have not given up on the season. The Clips have a positive differential their last five games of +.8PPG and three of those five games were on the road against playoff caliber teams in Sacramento, Utah and Denver. The Clippers have covered 4 straight in the series and they’re clearly the team that is still playing hard. Grab the points with the Clippers.