Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Taj Bradley the expected starter for the Rays and he has been a strikeout machine. Zac Gallen the expected starter for the Diamondbacks and he has been fantastic at home this season. Gallen is 7-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his 8 home starts this season! So why not a bet on Arizona here rather than the under? Well, we expect the Diamondbacks lineup to struggle with the Rays in this one. Bradley has a 2.13 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, the Rays bullpen ranks 4th for BAA and 8th for WHIP out of all 30 teams in the majors. The way we see it, the Dbacks lineup struggles here no matter who is on the mound for Tampa Bay. As for the Rays lineup, they are facing a top-notch starting pitcher here. Gallen has been strong for years and has been nearly unhittable this season at home as evidenced by his 1.00 ERA on the year at home. Entering this game, 12 of last 15 Rays road games have totaled 8 or less runs. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
|||||||
06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks and Giants both continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens are okay but not great as they rank in that middle 10 of the 30 teams in the majors based on bullpen ERA numbers so far this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.12 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 3.77 ERA on the season. As for the starters here, DeSclafani had a good April but he has not been overly impressive since and, in fact, has been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts. In those 6 starts he has allowed 22 earned runs in 29 innings! We look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard as they remain hot at the plate. Also, the Giants should pound Nelson. The Dbacks righty has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Nelson has struggled, other than one scoreless outing in this stretch, and has given up 16 earned runs on 30 hits in 19.2 innings in those other 4 starts. The Giants are off a 7-6 win over Arizona and that means a SF game totaled double digits in runs for the 9th time in 11 games. 13 of Diamondbacks last 19 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as the wind will be blowing out a good clip for this afternoon game at Oracle Park and afternoon games in San Francisco do tend to invite more scoring than chilly night games here in the summer. We look for plenty of runs today regardless of the starting pitchers so we will go with "action" on the pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon. |
|||||||
06-24-23 | Rangers -135 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -135 over New York Yankees, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Jonathan Gray is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray had allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 straight starts before he got rocked in his last start. Also, he gave up just 22 hits in just 43 innings in those 6 starts. Gray is having a fantastic season and his last start notwithstanding, has been pitching lights out. Luis Severino has been trending the opposite direction and is getting absolutely crushed in June. Severino has allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings in the month of June and opponents are hitting .349 against him this month. The Rangers are off a 4-2 extra innings win yesterday here in the Bronx and have been red hot with wins in 33 of last 50 games. The Yankees have been going the other direction with losses in 15 of 26 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts the way he has been going while Severino has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
|||||||
06-23-23 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - There is some rain in the Detroit area this morning but it is expected to move out by mid-day today so the weather should be fine for this early evening match-up. Little cool for late June standards and a light northerly breeze should also help the cause here in a park that is known for being friendly to the pitchers. The Twins and Tigers bullpen each have a WHIP that ranks them in the top ten in the majors. As for the starters here, Kenta Maeda has been very sharp in his minor league rehab appearances leading into this one. The Minnesota righty has his MLB numbers inflated this season due to just one bad start and this is is a guy that can be very tough to hit. Here Maeda will take advantage of facing a Tigers team that ranks as one of the worst in the majors at the plate with a .229 batting average and a .365 slugging percentage. As for Detroit starter Joey Wentz, he shows some ugly full season numbers to the betting markets but he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Remember he was strong last season too and he appears to be rounding into form again now. Wentz is off a fantastic start against these same Twins as he held them to just 2 hits while striking out 9 in 6.1 innings of work! That start was in Minnesota and now he gets them in his home park in Detroit. Note that the Twins are hitting .219 in road games this season. That ranks them 29th of 30 teams in the majors. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this line to 8.5 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
|||||||
06-19-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Osvaldo Bido for the Pirates and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both of the bullpens certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at ERA, the Pirates bullpen and the Cubs bullpen both rank in the bottom fourth of the league so far this season. The Cubs have won 7 of 9 games and have been hitting well during this stretch and averaging 6 runs scored in those 9 games. Look for Chicago to maintain this hotter stretch of hitting. They will be helped here by the fact they just faced Bido and the Pirates bullpen last week. Also, Pittsburgh just faced Smyly and the Cubs bullpen last week and the Pirates, season after season, do tend to hit better when at home. Pittsburgh should take advantage of facing a struggling Cubs pitcher, Smyly, in this one as he has struggled and been hit hard in his last 4 starts. The Cubs lefty has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings in this 4-game stretch! The Pirates also have a starter, Bido, likely to struggle on the mound for this one. The right-hander is a rookie making just his 2nd start and giving the Cubs a quick second look at him. He went 10-20 with an ERA in the 5.00 range in the last 3 seasons combined at the minor league level. More of the same here at home in just his 2nd MLB start. Over is the call in this one Monday evening. |
|||||||
06-18-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -118 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Blue Jays are only 20-20 in road games this season and the loss yesterday dropped Toronto to 22-28 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 23-13 in home games this season. We get line value here because Chris Bassitt has decent overall numbers on the season and is on the mound for the Blue Jays in this one. The fact is he is not pitching as well as Jonathan Gray this season plus Bassitt is known, throughout his career, for struggling more on the road than at home. His ERA throughout his career on the road has included seasons with ERA numbers of 5.12, 7.47, 4.54, 4.56, 4.00 and this season's 5.77 thus far. Basitt's road struggles have resumed this year as the season has gone along as he has been roughed up in 3 of his last 4 appearances on the road including 8 homers allowed in those 3 ugly road appearances! He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season at home where they are ranked #2 for batting average (.281) and also #1 with a .491 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6.3 RPG this season at home. They will send red hot Gray to the mound. He has allowed just 4 earned runs total in his last 6 starts! For the season Gray has an ERA of 2.32 overall and has enjoyed pitching in afternoon action as he has a 3-0 record in day starts. This is the 4th straight season that Gray has been stronger in day games than in night action. Bassitt is 0-2 with a very ugly 14.59 ERA in his 3 day starts this season. Take the Rangers |
|||||||
06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -125 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -125 over Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Los Angeles has been red hot but this is a tough spot for them and we’ll fade the Angels tonight. They won Tuesday for their 8th win in 9 games but they lost to the Rangers yesterday in the third game of this 4-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Angels to just 12-20 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 22-11 in home games this season. We get line value here because Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels in this one. The fact is he is not pitching as well as Nathan Eovaldi this season plus Ohtani is known, throughout his career, for struggling more on the road than at home. His ERA throughout his career is practically twice as high on the road compared to at home in Anaheim where he does tend to be tough. Ohtani's road struggles have resumed as this season has gone on as he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 appearances on the road! He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season at home where they are ranked #1 for batting average (.287) and also #1 with a .500 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6.6 RPG this season at home. They will send red hot Eovaldi to the mound. We look for him to bounce back after a rare tougher outing vs Rays in Tampa in his most recent start. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 2.49 and a 9-2 record. Prior to the start versus TB, in looking at his 6 starts leading into that one, he allowed 1 earned run in one of them and 0 earned runs in 4 of them! Eovaldi has been rock solid this season including an 8-0 record in his last 10 starts! Take the Rangers |
|||||||
06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Twins have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .223 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Minnesota ranks 7th with a 3.50 ERA while the Brewers rank 22nd with a 4.29 ERA. Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak. That included an ugly series sweep at home at the hands of the league-worst Athletics. Then, the manner of loss yesterday in the Brewers 5th straight defeat will be really tough to come back from. Milwaukee led that game 5-3 going to bottom of the 9th but then allowed 4 runs including 2 on a walk-off homer that finished them off. The Brewers are in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Milwaukee's 33 losses this season have included 29 by at least a 2-run margin! The Twins 34 wins have included 27 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor a Twins win coming by a multi-run margin. Minnesota has won 15 of 25 home games since late April. The Brewers have lost 13 of 20 road games over roughly the same time frame. As for the pitching match-up here, the Brewers Colin Rea has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 3 road starts! The Twins counter with Bailey Ober and he has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .200 batting average in his 9 starts this season. The Brewers 5-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and 12 of the last 13 losses for Milwaukee have been by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
|||||||
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games. |
|||||||
06-12-23 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Zack Greinke for the Royals. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at WHIP, the Reds bullpen is ranked 18th out of 30 teams and the Royals bullpen is ranked 29th so far this season. The Reds have won 12 of 20 games and have been hitting well in recent weeks. Prior to yesterday's 4-3 victory staying under the total, Cincinnati had 15 of 19 games total at least 9 runs during this hotter stretch of hitting. Though KC has not been hitting well they have been on the road. The Royals do tend to hit better when at home. Though the Royals might be the worst team in baseball, their .404 slugging percentage at home does rank them in the middle of the pack, 14th, in MLB so far this season. KC should take advantage of facing a struggling Reds pitcher, Weaver, in this one as he has had only 2 good starts out of 9 this season. In his other 7 starts, Weaver has allowed 32 earned runs in 35.2 innings! The Royals also have a struggling starter, Greinke, taking the mound for this one. The veteran right-hander is 1-6 with a 4.59 ERA this season and just got roughed up at Miami. More of the same here at home. Over is the call in this one Monday night.
|
|||||||
06-11-23 | Royals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 112 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #5 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 17-10 record and 3.34 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 9-14 record and 4.86 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 8-32 in games against teams with a winning record this season! Baltimore is 21-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 46 losses this season have included 39 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Gibson has a 7-3 record and 3.87 ERA this season! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings over his last 4 starts! The Royals counter with opener Carlos Hernandez but Mike Mayers is expected to get the bulk of the work here. This is another reason we like action on the starting pitchers. Hernandez, the past two seasons, has an 0-8 mark and 6.29 ERA. As for Mayers, he has made only 4 appearances so far this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 road outings. The first one, walks were an issue and now in his most recent outing he got crushed at Miami. Orioles enter this game with wins in 13 of 18 games against Central Division opponents this season. Of last 25 wins, 20 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this one on a 5-game losing streak and have lost 23 of last 30 on the road. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
|||||||
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available. |
|||||||
06-08-23 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 or 8.5 Runs – Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - Both teams have been struggling at times of late to score runs and you have two red hot starting pitchers on the mound and two rock solid bullpens as well. Toronto has won 9 of 12 games but actually scored 3 or less runs in 4 of last 6 wins! In last 7 games at home in Toronto, the Blue Jays have had only one big game at the plate. In the other 6 games they have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game. The Astros are 4-4 last 8 road games. They have often struggled to score many runs on the road in recent road trips. Overall, in last 4 games whether home or away, Houston has been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of the 4. Even off B2B losses in this series, the Astros have allowed an average of only 3 runs in their last 6 games on the road. As we mentioned above, very solid bullpens supporting these two starters and both appear primed for big starts here. Framber Valdez is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. Overall he has been dominant as Valdez allowed 4 earned runs in 1 of his dozen starts this season but allowed a total of only 15 earned runs in the other 11 starts! Taking a look at the Jays Jose Berrios, he is red hot! Berrios was 7-2 at home last season and he has a 2.22 ERA in his 4 home starts this season. Also, the overall numbers for Berrios are impacted by 3 tougher road starts including his very first 2 starts this season. Other than those 3 (again, all on the road and a couple from two months back!) he has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs in 9 starts! This game has the makings of a 3-2 final and could even finish as a 2-1 pitchers duel. The pitching dominates again in this series in Thursday's game. We are going strong with the Under in this one.
|
|||||||
06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, Game 3 Weds 8:30 PM ET - We’ve hit our two Side wagers on the first two games of this series and will now bet the Over/Under in Game 3. We like UNDER the Total and expect a lower scoring game. In the opener these two teams combined for 197 total points on 175 FG attempts. Miami had a poor shooting night and only attempted 2 FT’s in the game. In Game 2 there were only 153 field goal attempts, yet the game creeped Over the Total of 216 when 219 points were scored. The big reason that Over cashed was incredible shooting by the Heat in the 4th quarter. Miami made 7 straight FG’s to start the 4th on their way to a 36-point quarter. Both teams also shot well above expectations in Game 2 so expect a regression in Game 3. As far as the pace of play is concerned these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league during the regular season ranking 2nd slowest (MIA) and 8th (DEN). Both of these teams have averaged fewer possessions per game in the postseason too. The Nuggets head coach Malone and veteran Jeff Green called out their team defensively after Game 2 so expect a much better effort on that end of the court here. BET UNDER! |
|||||||
06-07-23 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 11.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - This total is just too much. We understand it based on the lack of experience of the Reds starter here and the fact that the Dodgers starter has struggled this season plus yesterday's game totaled 17 runs. However, it is simply too much especially when you take a closer look at the team and starting pitcher aspects and why this number is inflated. The Reds, prior to yesterday, had averaged just 3.7 runs scored in their last 6 games. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's 9-8 loss in Cincinnati in Game 1 of this series, had scored an average of 4.5 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Reds are expected to start rookie Brandon Williamson here and the lefty has held opponents to a .215 batting average against in 2023 thus far. This should be a solid duel here in this one as the Dodgers are expected to start Noah Syndergaard this evening. The LA right-hander is off a tough start and has been rumored to have his starting spot on the line due to struggles this season. However, all the runs against him were with two outs each time in his most recent outing against the Nationals last week. Syndergaard pitched better than his line shows but gave up some bigger hits with 2-outs. Look for Syndergaard to bounce back here. He had allowed 16 hits in 15 innings in his 3 starts prior to that one. The fact is, with less than 2 outs he was unscored on in his last start. We think the savvy 8-year vet is going to step up his game here and give the Reds trouble and this large total gives us a lot of wiggle room here! Let’s take the Under in this one.
|
|||||||
06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 131 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - With yesterday's 9 to 6 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 9-3 run over their past dozen games. This includes 4 straight wins. Also, 8 of the 9 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin! Kansas City certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 18-42 on the season and with 12 of their last 13 losses by 2 or more runs. The Royals enter this match-up having gone 6-27 in games against teams with a winning record this season! They are 5-11 against left-handed starters and face a tough one here as Jesus Luzardo expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.05 ERA so far this season, he had a 3.32 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here and he does have a 3.35 ERA at home this season. As for the expected Kansas City starter, Zack Greinke, he has been decent this season but is 0-10 the last two seasons combined in his road starts. Throughout his career, Greinke is known for struggling more on the road than at home and that has been the trend with him again this season. Also, going against Greinke here is the fact that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like KC that struggles at the plate plus ranks just ahead of Oakland in terms of having a league-worst bullpen. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a solid comeback price in the +130 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
|||||||
06-05-23 | Panthers +124 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
#45 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers +120 over Vegas Golden Knights, Monday at 8 PM ET - If you watched Game 1 you know that there were some fortunate bounces of the puck that favored Vegas. The Golden Knights got some breaks and, overall, we liked what we saw from Florida in that one even though they came up short in game with a deceiving final score of 5-2 as it was certainly much closer than that score would lead you to believe. Florida is now in a strong play on position as they have been so strong off losses including 3-1 in this post-season. Dating back to the regular season, the Panthers went 6-2 last 8 times in the regular season games when on the road and coming off a loss in their prior game. This is a well-coached team with plenty of veteran personnel on its roster too. They will be ready to respond here and we don't expect so much "puck luck" for the Golden Knights in this one as they certainly had some good fortune in Game One. Note that Florida wanted to establish physicality in game one and they did but they took it a little too far and they know they will not win many games when allowing 7 power play opportunities. The Golden Knights converted 2 of them and the Panthers had 0 power plays goals in the game. Certainly this was a big difference in the game. 5 on 5 Florida played very well and Vegas also got some huge saves from goalie Adin Hill. Give him credit as he has been strong in this post-season in a big surprise after other goalies got hurt. However, why was he not the #1 goalie in Vegas before the injuries? Exactly and this is why we feel a breakdown could soon be forthcoming and things start to unravel. All of the above factors are leading to value here. Also, because the Panthers are, of course, on the road for this Game 2 revenge spot in this series we get a great price. Grab the small underdog comeback price with the road underdog here. |
|||||||
06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points. |
|||||||
06-04-23 | A's v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
|||||||
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1. |
|||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 in a number of books in early market activity which is giving us extra value. We get a lower total here because of George Kirby's long-term numbers and the fact these are two solid bullpens but one must also look at what these clubs, particularly the Yankees, have been doing offensively of late. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. The Yankees are red hot at the plate and have scored exactly 10 runs in 3 straight games. Also, New York's road games have seen them score an average of 6.1 runs last 10 games and they have won 6 straight and 8 of last 9 when away from home. The Yankees are hot and Kirby enters this one off a very rough home start in which he allowed 4 homers! New York has really been slugging the ball so don't be surprised if Kirby struggles again. He also was hit harder at home last year just as has been the case this season. As for Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, his ERA and batting average against numbers have both been worse when on the road compared to at home. Schmidt enters this one with a 5.58 ERA on the season and opponents hitting .301 against him. The Mariners, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Wednesday night. |
|||||||
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15. |
|||||||
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Saturday 8:30 PM ET - These two teams just shot 51% against each other and still only managed 207 total points in the last game. The reason why was the slow deliberate pace by both teams with a combined 157 field goal attempts. The field goal attempts in the first two games were below league average with 166 attempts in Game 1 and 172 in Game 2. The NBA average for FGA per game this season was 176. In Games 3 & 4 they attempted 179 and 162. During the regular season the Heat owned the 9th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.135-points per possession. Boston was 3rd giving up 1.115PPP. In the Playoffs the Celtics are allowing 1.130PPP which is obviously very good, but Miami has been better yet allowing just 1.117PPP which is 4th best. Also, in the postseason both teams’ pace of play has slowed. Two big injuries will also have an impact on the total points scored by these teams. Malcom Brogdon has issues with his shooting arm and may not play. If he does how effective can he be shooting? The big loss for the Heat is Gabe Vincent who has been outstanding in the playoffs. Vincent is averaging 13.5PPG in this series and has provided Miami with another 3-point threat (11 of 22 from Deep vs. Boston) with Tyler Herro on the bench. Both defenses will play at a peak level in this game and expect both teams to favor a much slower tempo. Bet UNDER! |
|||||||
05-25-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami. |
|||||||
05-24-23 | Hurricanes +100 v. Panthers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
#15 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-105) over Florida Panthers, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The Panthers 1-0 win over Carolina Monday was their first shutout victory of the post-season and the first-ever playoff shutout for Sergei Bobrovsky in his career. The Panthers had only 2 home ice shutouts in the entirety of the regular season. Each time they lost their next game and those defeats were by identical 4-2 scores. All 3 wins in this series for Florida have been by 1 goal and the first two were OT victories. Carolina outshot Florida 32 to 17 in the Game 3 loss. A key player, Barkov, for the Panthers was knocked out of that game early and never returned. He could be back tonight but will not be 100%. The Hurricanes are a determined group with a determined hard-nosed head coach that knows how to get the best out of his players. This series has been tight all the way through and the Panthers are very fortunate to be up 3 games to 0 in this one. The Canes will not quit and have largely avoided losing streaks of more than 2 games this season. This is their first 3-gamer of the post-season and it is the perfect spot to back them for a bounce back. Carolina also won the shots on goal battle in Games 1 and 2 of this series and has had a 70 to 43 edge in shots on goal in games 2 and 3 combined. This has simply been a crazy series as it seems unfathomable that Florida could be up 3 to 0 when you see how this one has played out on the ice. The Hurricanes have to be happy with their level of play yet they have fallen just short of the victory in all 3 games. The determination level and relentlessness of the Canes will be off the charts in this one. Coach Rod Brind'Amour has had his team ready and is one of the best in the business when it comes to preparing his team in the toughest of situations. Down 0-3 but knowing they just need 1 win here and then this series could "turn on a dime", we have no doubt the Hurricanes will be getting some high quality shots and screened shots plus will take advantage of power play chances (likely to get more opportunities tonight), and the result will be a solid road win. Carolina Hurricanes Money Line is the play in this one! |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 216 | Top | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET Game 4 - All three games of this series have gone Over the total. That’s somewhat surprising considering they have been below the league average in field goal attempts in 2 of three games. But hot shooting by the Heat has been the driving factor. Miami is 26th in the NBA in shooting percentage at 46% and 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. In this series they shot 54%, 46% and 57% in the three games. They have also shot over 52% in two of the three games from beyond the arc. Boston had one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season, but they are giving up 1.142-points per possession in the Playoffs. Off that embarrassing Game 3 blowout I’m betting the Celtics Stars Tatum and Brown will come out firing in this elimination game. The Over has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. The O/U line is low again so grab the value with Over. |
|||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers. |
|||||||
05-21-23 | Stars +106 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
#9 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars +105 over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 3 PM ET - If you watched Game 1 you know that there were some fortunate bounces of the puck that favored Vegas. The Golden Knights got some breaks and, overall, we liked what we saw from Dallas in that one even though they came up just short in the 4-3 OT loss. Dallas is now in a strong play on position as they have been so strong off a loss. 22-11 is the combined score of the 5 victories that the Stars have in this post-season when they enter a game off a loss. 18-9 is the combined score of the 4 victories that Dallas had following each of their last 4 regular season losses. We are now moving into the latter third of May and you have to go all the way back to mid-March to find the last time the Stars were dealt B2B losses. We like the Stars to play a very tight-checking game here and be a little more physical than they were in Game 1. The last 9 times they were off a loss they allowed an average of only 2 goals per game while they scored 4.4 goals per game. This is a well-coached team with plenty of veteran personnel on its roster too. They will be ready to respond here and we don't expect so much "puck luck" for the Golden Knights in this one as they certainly had some good fortune in Game One. A key goal also happened for Vegas in the 3rd period on a play when the Stars goalie got bowled over and had no chance on the play. All of these factors are leading to value here. Also, because the Stars are on the road for this Game 2 revenge spot we get a great price. Grab the small underdog price with the road underdog here |
|||||||
05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET Game 3 - These two teams had an incredible shooting night in Game 1 and produced 258-total points between them. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. In Game 2 we got a game that was much more predictive of what these two teams really are. They combined for 211 total points on 171 field goal attempts. The Lakers came back to Earth with a 44% shooting night and 8 of 30 Game 3 from beyond the arc. Denver was close to their season averages of 44% overall and 37% from deep. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. If you paid close attention to Game 2 then you saw what we saw which was too very fatigued teams from the intensity and higher altitude in Denver. The Lakers defense at home in the postseason has been outstanding as they have held all of their opponents to 104 or less points in regulation time. This will be another low field goal attempt game and stay UNDER the total. |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15. |
|||||||
05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 2 - Everyone just watched these two teams produce 258 total points in Game 1 of this series. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. The Lakers defense just held the Warriors to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should make adjustments to limit Jokic and Murray from scoring 30+. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last eight. Don’t expect Anthony Davis to have a repeat performance of 40 points and it’s unlikely they get 40 combined from Reaves and Hachimura. |
|||||||
05-17-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener. |
|||||||
05-17-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started. As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight. San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here. Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season! He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win. Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games. Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count. 26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Padres on the run line in this one. |
|||||||
05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 222.5 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 1 - With more money and tickets on the Over you would expect this line to go up, but it didn’t and one respected Sports Book is even carrying 222 on this game. That has us liking the Under even more coupled with our standard statistical projections. The Lakers just faced a Warriors team that was the fastest paced team in the NBA during the regular season AND was the 2nd highest in scoring and the series averaged 222.5PPG. Now the Lakers face a Nuggets team that was 23rd in pace of play a t98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. When the Nuggets have been at home in the Playoffs thus far they have stayed Under 223 total points in 4 of six games. The Lakers defense just held a Warriors team to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should be up for the challenge of slowing this Nuggets team down. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last seven. Our model projects 216 total points here. |
|||||||
05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers. |
|||||||
05-12-23 | Royals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday. 23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
|||||||
05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks. |
|||||||
05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 212 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - The five games in this series have finished with 234, 208, 216, 214 (in regulation) and 218 total points. The Celtics had scored 114 or more in each game, up until the last one when they managed just 103 points. Boston had a poor shooting night in Game 5 by hitting just 40% overall and 32% from deep. Boston shoots 47.5% as a team overall and 37.7% from the 3-point line. The one game in this series that has stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixes offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 213 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem. |
|||||||
05-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 135 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
#22 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights lost goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury in Game 3 of this series. Vegas then brought in Adin Hill and he was great in relief but the Knights' skaters really came out flying in that game and something seemed amiss with the Oilers all night long even though they were on home ice. That said, now a still-recovering Brossoit (he also had hip surgery recently) will be getting the start for Vegas or Hill will be making the first post-season start of his NHL career. There is a big difference between coming on in relief in a game in which your team also gets a big lead for you versus getting the start. Hill would be entering this game with a 0-0 score of course and having plenty of time to think about making his first-ever playoff start, etc. That is a much different "animal" per se and we know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the embarrassing Game 3 loss. We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights have the injured Brossoit, first P/O start Hill, or rusty Jonathan Quick as their choices here. The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 7-0 the last 7. As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers win in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and BOTH their home wins in this post-season (against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 10 to 5 aggregate on those two games. The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 19-4 last 23 games before that Game 3 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 8-0 last 8 times when off a loss. Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here. |
|||||||
05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS. |
|||||||
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process. |
|||||||
05-08-23 | Knicks +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer. |
|||||||
05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 214.5 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214.5 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 3:30 PM ET - The three games in this series have finished with 234, 208 and 216 total points. The Celtics have done their jobs offensively scoring 114 or more in each. The one game that stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixers offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. James Harden has been especially bad in the last two games, scoring just 12 and 16-points after scoring 45 in Game 1. We predict James will get back on track at home in this pivotal Game 4. Embiid scored 30-points in his second game back from injury and should be even better with a couple games now under his belt. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. 5 of the last eight meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 214 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem. |
|||||||
05-07-23 | Yankees -115 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -115 over Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here because the Rays have Javy Guerra listed as a starter but he is just an opener and Josh Fleming is expected to get the bulk of the work. That being said, perhaps Tampa Bay changes their mind and uses Fleming as a starter and Guerra comes in later. That is why we select action here and we look for the Yankees to pick up another win after rallying for the 3-2 win yesterday. The Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. He has been absolutely dominant this season with a 5-0 record and a 1.35 ERA. This will be his first start against the Rays this season but last year he had a 1.07 ERA in his 4 starts against Tampa Bay. Cole allowed just 13 hits in 25 innings while striking out 35 in those 4 outings versus Tampa. Look for more dominance today and the key here is that whoever the Yankees have on the mound is likely to get plenty of run support today too. Guerra has struggled with command of his pitches and is walking too many batter again this season just like last season. Fleming suffered a foot contusion in most recent outing. He is expected to be ready here but he struggled with too many walks in 2 of his last 4 starts. He has been a little "off" at times this season and remember he had a 6.43 ERA last season and a 5.09 ERA the year before that. We are not sold on Fleming and we expect the Yankees to build momentum here after the key win yesterday. Tampa Bay has been great this season but there are not many times you are going to be able to bet the Yankees with Cole on the mound (particularly when he is rolling like this!) at a -120 price. The point is that we get line value here because of the Rays ultra strong start to this season. Keep in mind, New York has won 11 of 15 day games this season and the Rays, though certainly still hot overall, have lost 3 of last 7 games at home. Yankees get the win this afternoon. |
|||||||
05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3 | Top | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3. |
|||||||
05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits. |
|||||||
05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
#56 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Dallas lost Game 1 due to allowing a shocking 4 goals in the 1st period. The Stars entered the 2nd period down 4-2 and battled back to send the game to overtime only to lose in OT. That said, Dallas did build some momentum after the shocking start to that game and we expect a big bounce back effort here. The Stars have been so strong off a loss. In fact, Dallas is a fantastic 9-1 last 10 times when off a loss. Also, 9 of last 12 Stars wins have been by a multi-goal margin. Amazingly, all 9 of those victories - including 3 of them in their first round series win over Minnesota - were by at least a 3 goal margin. Seattle has been exceeding expectations after their huge upset first round series victory over the Avalanche. However, they come back down to earth here in this one as the Stars defensive play and netminding will be on point after that 5-4 OT loss in the first game. 6 of last 7 Kraken losses have been by at least 2 goals. Also, Seattle's last 2 losses in the Colorado series were by a combined score of 10 to 5. We think this one sets up very well for Dallas to respond huge at home after that ugly first period did them in on Tuesday. Of course the Stars a huge money line favorite for a reason but we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Dallas for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.
|
|||||||
05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one. |
|||||||
05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one. |
|||||||
05-02-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six. |
|||||||
05-02-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 11-7 | Win | 110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season! Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP! The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season. The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago. Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season. This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA! In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games. Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win. What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season. Every loss leads to a losing streak. KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak. Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
|||||||
05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Monday, 10 PM ET - The O/U on game 1 of this series was the same Total it is here at 227.5 and the two teams combined for 232-points. We expect another similar outcome in Game 2. These two teams combined for 185 field goal attempts in the opener which is 9 more than the regular season average for the entire NBA. Phoenix has the 7th best 3PT% in the league but connected on just 7 of 23 attempts for 30%. The Nuggets scored 125 points on 48% shooting and 43% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect a dramatic change in Denver’s output but do expect the Suns to score more. Phoenix did average 113.6PPG on the year and rated the 13th best offensive efficiency. Phoenix is on a strong 7-1-1 Over streak their last 9 games, Denver is over 4 of their last 5 overall. The last five meetings between these two teams has averaged 244PPG. This game isn’t getting to that number, but based on pace and efficiency ratings this game goes OVER the Total. |
|||||||
04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points! |
|||||||
04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points. |
|||||||
04-29-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
#11/12 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Goals - Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Maple Leafs have lost 10 straight times when they have a chance to eliminate an opponent in the post-season. The run continued now in this series with the Game 5 loss to the Lightning which has extended this series to Game 6 down in Tampa Bay. However, though that may seem like it would warrant a play on the Bolts here, we like the total so much more. In fact, we love this total. That's because this season's Toronto team was different. They won a lot of tight low-scoring games in the regular season. As for this veteran Lighting team with multiple championships, they certainly know plenty about winning tight low-scoring games. So this one absolutely has the look and feel of a tight low-scoring game. Keep in mind that Game 5 was the first potential elimination game in this series and it was just a 2-1 game in the 3rd period before a Leafs player bumped into his own netminder and that led to the Lightning goal that gave them a 3-1 lead. Then, if not for an empty netter, the game would have ended at a 3-2 final. Of course the 4-2 final we saw Thursday suits our purposes here just fine but the point is that the game could have easily been a 2-1 or 3-2 type final and we are looking for a real grinder here. If Tampa Bay was able to get the kind of game they wanted in Toronto's barn in Game 5 you know they certainly are going to be able to the same down in their own arena tonight. That said, this will be a game all about protecting leads and playing a safe and measured game. It is an elimination game and we saw a real change in the way Game 5 flowed compared to the earlier games in the series. The Lightning eliminated Toronto from the post-season last year so they know how to slow them down and create the game flow they want. That is not to say that it is easy but this Lightning team has proven more than capable on more than one occasion. Tampa is so well coached too. Also, the Maple Leafs are playing with so much pressure to end their playoff series' losing streak. They'll be squeezing the sticks a little too tight again tonight as a result and this one should be quite the low-scoring battle. Because of the current trending of this series, prior to Game 5, the number is just too big here and so we love the value with the total of 6.5 set on this game as that is also based on long-term reputation rather than the current way these teams are playing! Under is our play here. |
|||||||
04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235.5 | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235.5 Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Kings were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season allowing 1.169-points per possession which ranked 25th. In the playoffs they are allowing just 1.130PPP which is 11th best. What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact they are facing the Warriors and one of the best offenses in the league. During the regular season the Warriors O averaged 1.164PPP which was 8th. The Kings offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the postseason also going from 1.195PPP to 1.100PPP. De’Aaron Fox who has a fractured finger on his shooting hand was not 100% in Game 5, but still managed 24 points on 9 of 25 shooting. Fox has scored 27% of the Kings points in the playoffs and clearly didn’t shoot it well last time out. These two teams combined for 239 total points in Game 5 which barely crept over the number in the late stages of that game. We expect both defenses to rise to the occasion tonight and predict a game in the mid-220’s. |
|||||||
04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here. |
|||||||
04-27-23 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 which is giving us extra value. The weather will be decent by Detroit standards for April. We get a lower total here because of Kyle Gibson's numbers and the fact the Tigers are not great offensively. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. Detroit actually hits better at home than they do on the road. Also, the Orioles have been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season on the road. The Tigers also just faced Gibson and he shut them down in Baltimore. However, now they will get a quick second look at him and he has struggled on the road in recent seasons. This has been a marked dichotomy for Gibson and it has already continued for him early this season in that he is better at home than on the road. Also, the last few times he has pitched at Comerica Park in Detroit, they have been complete disasters as Gibson has been hit very hard. As for Tigers starter Joey Wentz, he just faced the Orioles and it did not end well. Now Baltimore's lineup gets to quickly see him again and Wentz is likely to get hit very hard in the rematch as well. The Tigers have played 8 home games this season and, other than one outlier which was a 1-0 win, the 7 other home games averaged totaling 10 runs per game! The Orioles also have a rare outlier with a 1-0 shutout win on the road but have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their other 10 road games this season. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening. |
|||||||
04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done. |
|||||||
04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Clippers really struggled offensively in Game 4 at home without Kawhi Leonard and it’s not going to get any better tonight. Even with Russell Westbrook pouring in 37-points the Clippers as a team managed just 100. The average field goal attempts in an NBA game this season was 176 and these two teams have attempted 176 or less in all four games. In the regular season the Suns were the 9th slowest paced team in the league at 98.2 possessions per game. The Clippers were the 7th slowest at 97.9. Thus far in the Playoffs these two teams are averaging 96.3 possessions per game which ranks 12th and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. The Suns get a lot of attention for their offense but in reality it’s their defense that deserves the credit. They rank 6th in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 11th in 3PT% D. The Clippers weren’t on that level but still allowed just 113.1PPG which was 12th best in the NBA. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points but Leonard had 69 of those points. Without him here this game doesn’t get to 224. |
|||||||
04-24-23 | A's v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Ken Waldichuk for the Athletics. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. The Angels bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack - not awful but not great either. The Athletics bullpen however is much worse. Really some of Oakland's bullpen numbers are hard to believe as they are so off the norm (K:BB ratio for example). Oakland ranks dead last for bullpens so far this season including a 6.99 ERA. The Angels are 5-3 L8 home games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games plus they took 2 of 3 at Oakland earlier this season and averaged 6.7 runs in the 3 games. We'll see plenty of runs here! Oakland has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 road games but their problem is they can stop no one! The A's have allowed 8 runs per game this season which is unreal considering we are 22 games into the season. The A's pitching, including their beleaguered bullpen, has been truly dreadful. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in all 3 of his starts this season and has allowed 12 earned runs in his three outings even though those starts have totaled only about 12 innings combined. The A's Waldichuk has allowed 11 earned runs in about 9 innings in his two road starts and the Angels have some hitters who have enjoyed success against him. Over is the call in this one Monday night. |
|||||||
04-24-23 | Bucks -5.5 v. Heat | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami. |
|||||||
04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think. |
|||||||
04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -115 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We love the situation here to back the home team Knickerbockers minus the short number. After winning Game 1 of this series, the Knicks lost badly in Game 2 by 17-points. In Game 1 most numbers were pretty even for both teams, but the Knicks enjoyed a +13 rebound night which was the difference. Game 2 saw the Cavs out-board the Knicks by 7 but the big separator was shooting as the Cavs hit 49% overall and 42% from beyond the arc. New York shot just 37% overall and 24% from Downtown. The Knicks will get great support at home tonight where they were 23-18 SU on the season with a +/- of +4.3PPG on the year. Cleveland was 20-21 SU away from home with an average margin of victory of +2.6PPG. If we look at the season series the Knicks won 3 straight after a loss way back in October. Two of those wins were by double-digits. The Cavs were just 4-9 ATS as a dog of less than +4.5 points, while the Knicks were 11-9 ATS as a favorite of -4.5-points or less. New York has won 10 of their last twelve at home and we expect them to win this game by a comfortable margin. |
|||||||
04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one. |
|||||||
04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#1/2 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Toronto needs to respond on home ice here to avoid an 0-2 hole in this series. Certainly the Maple Leafs have the firepower on offense to do just that. The problem is that their goaltending just can not be trusted. Matt Murray is still out (concussion recovery) which means little-used Joseph Woll is the only option behind Ilya Samsonov right now for Toronto. That said, Samsonov is getting the start again tonight but he allowed 6 goals in the Game 1 loss to the high-powered Lightning. This is why we like the over so much here. We are confident that the Leafs are going to come out strong in this critical Game 2 match-up but how can anyone trust their goaltending? Year after year it is a problem for Toronto and ends up being their downfall in the post-season. That said, let's not forget that game one was a 3-2 game with 6 minutes to go in the 2nd period before the Leafs fell apart. The point is they can come out and compete hard here but they are going to have to score plenty to top the Lightning here. Don't be surprised if each club scores at least 3 goals here as this one flies over the total. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals in last 9 games dating back to late March. 13 of the Maple Leafs last 16 home games have totaled at least 6 goals and those games have averaged 7 goals! Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is a great goalie but he was not as dominant this season and also has allowed 13 goals in his last 3 starts. Over is our play here. |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team! |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
#58 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Every single game between these teams in the regular season was won by the road team as the visitors won all 3. Also, all 3 were decided by just a single goal. So why this play? It is because now the post-season has arrived and the cream rises to the top and we look for Avalanche and their post-season experience plus home ice edge to help lead the way to a big win here over a Seattle club in the post-season for the first time. The Kraken lost their final two games of the regular season each by a multi-goal margin. There were tight games in yesterday's first day of playoff action but the Kraken have had 11 straight games decided by a multi-goal margin and we like Colorado here. The Avalanche have won 8 of last 10 playoff games on home ice. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Avalanche carry their post-season confidence and dominance from last year right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the value play here. |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix. |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the power-hitting of these two clubs coupled with the westerly wind direction and a cool (but not cold) evening at Yankee Stadium is likely to lead to a slugfest here! Look for the Angels to build off yesterday's win at Fenway Park but they also used up a ton of bullpen in that game. A long rain delay in that early game at Boston after Ohtani pitched the first two innings meant that Angels had to use a lot of bullpen for the final 7 innings of that game. That one was a 5-4 LA win and we look for even more runs to be piling up in this early evening game in the Bronx Tuesday. The Yankees bullpen has been solid this season but the Angels are 5-4 L9 road games and have scored an average of 7 runs in the 5 wins and allowed an average of 7 runs in the 4 losses. We'll see plenty of runs here! The Yankees will take advantage of a mediocre LA bullpen that got a lot of work yesterday. New York has averaged scoring 5 runs per game this season and had averaged scoring 6 runs in their first 9 victories this season before a 2-0 pitchers duel win with Cole on the mound Sunday. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in both his starts this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled only about 8 innings combined. The Yankees Schmidt also has struggled in all 3 starts this season and he has an 8.44 ERA and has been hit at a .340 clip so far this season! Schmidt has allowed 3 homers in less than 11 innings of work this season. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening. |
|||||||
04-17-23 | Warriors +1 v. Kings | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors. |
|||||||
04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points! |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1. |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Mets v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – New York Mets @ Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Shintaro Fujinami for Oakland and Carlos Carrasco for the Mets. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as we look for today's match-up to pick up right where yesterday's game left off. That one was a 17-6 Mets win and we look for the runs to keep piling up in this day game in Oakland. The Mets have scored an average of 7 runs in their 8 wins this season. In New York's 5 most recent losses, they have allowed an average of 7.4 runs per game. That is why, win or lose, Mets find themselves in a high-scoring game Saturday the way we see it. Oakland opened the season with a 2-1 win. Since then, 10 of their 13 games have totaled double digits in runs. Those 13 games have averaged 13 runs per game! We only need 10 to be a winner here and 9 is a push. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Fujinami has more walks than strikeouts this season and has allowed 13 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled less than 7 innings combined. Carrasco also has more walks than strikeouts and he has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his two starts though he failed to complete 5 innings in either start. Carrasco has allowed 3 homers in less than 9 innings of work this season. The Mets bullpen has been middle of the pack so far this season while the Athletics relievers ERA ranks 29th out of 30 teams so far this season. Over is the call in this one Saturday afternoon.
|
|||||||
04-14-23 | Bulls +6 v. Heat | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire. |
|||||||
04-13-23 | Hurricanes v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#13/14 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Goals - Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game in the playoff standings. Carolina needs a win to capture the Metropolitan Division. They control their own destiny since they have one more point than the New Jersey Devils. Florida needs a win to avoid finishing as the 2nd wild card and facing the Boston Bruins in the first round. Like the Hurricanes, the Panthers control their own destiny since they are only one point behind the Islanders and New York played their final game of the regular season last night. So if the Panthers win they avoid facing a Bruins team that had a record-breaking NHL season. That said, this game tonight absolutely should play out as a tight defensive playoff-like battle. The Hurricanes were the 2nd best team this season in terms of goals allowed and have two great goalies in Andersen and Raanta. The Panthers could soon get their top goalie Bobrovsky back but with the way Lyon has been playing, how can Bobrovsky even be re-inserted as the #1? Lyon is a stellar 6-0-1 with a 1.55 GAA and .952 save percentage in his last 7 starts for Florida! The Panthers have allowed just 1.4 goals per game in regulation time of their last 7 games! The Hurricanes 8 of last 9 games have totaled 5 or less goals! Carolina has allowed an average of only 2 goals per game last 7 games! These teams are both already playing play-off hockey! Low-scoring battle should be on tap here as these teams both have been getting strong goaltending and stellar defense of late. We look for 5 goals here at most but certainly 6 seems like would be the maximum given the importance of this game in the standings and the current trending of these two clubs and so we love the value with the big total set on this game based on Florida's long-term reputation rather than the current way they are playing! Under is our play here. |
|||||||
04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one. |
|||||||
04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 226.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s start with the average NBA total points scored in a game this regular season which was 228.6 points per game. We don’t see this game being ‘average’ based on several factors. We will start with the Hawks defense that is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.164-points per possession. That is the second worst of all the playoff teams (Kings are 25th). Since the All-Star break the Hawks have given up 121.7PPG. They rank 26th in PPG allowed, 25th in opponents FG%, but are 10th in 3PT%. The Hawks are also 19th in defensive rebounding. The Hawks beat teams by out-scoring them. Atlanta was 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.167PPP and were the 9th fastest paced team in the league. Since the break they have averaged 123.7PPG. Miami has gone through their struggles offensively this season, but they are clearly trending up to end the season. Prior to the All-Star break they were the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 108.3PPG. Since the break that average has jumped to 112.4PPG. In their last five games the Heat have the 1.251PPP which is the second highest average in the league behind the Warriors. Miami is known for their defense, but they haven’t been as good on that end of the court this season as they’ve been in past years. Case in point, last season the Heat were 5th in defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091PPP. This season the Heat are allowing 1.135PPP. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight. |
|||||||
04-09-23 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-113 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels. |
|||||||
04-08-23 | Flyers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
#21/22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 Goals - Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Flyers are expected to start Carter Hart here. He has played sparingly the past two weeks and so he could be rusty. This would be just the 2nd start for Hart in two weeks. Also, he is struggling on the road. He is known for being stronger on home ice and that has been the case again with recent road struggles putting a highlight on the home/road dichotomy. Hart has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in his last 6 road starts. The Flyers have been eliminated from post-season contention for quite some time now but Philly would love nothing more than to put a dent in the playoff hopes of the Islanders. To do that though, Philly will have to score well. Their defense has been weak of late overall and it has been part of a rough season for Philadelphia. The Flyers have allowed at least 4 goals in 5 straight games - all losses - and the average allowed was 4.4 goals. This total at 5.5 is just too low. The Flyers will put up a fight and should enjoy some success in the offensive zone but just will not be able to stop the Islanders. New York enters this game off a 6-1 win and has scored at least 5 goals in 3 of last 4 home games. The Islanders averaged 6 goals scored in those 3 home games. They will pressure Philly early and often in this game but should allow a few goals along the way too. Over is our play here.
|
|||||||
04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 230 | Top | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 230 Portland Trailblazers @ LA Clippers, 4 PM ET - Both teams have games again tomorrow so it’s highly unlikely they are going to let this game turn into a fast-paced game. Especially the Clippers who still have seed positioning to play for AND need to manage minutes for older players such as Kawhi. This line is clearly too high as the Blazers just faced a Spurs team that is one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and one of the worst defensively and that total was 227. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the league and are around average in defensive efficiency. Portland has 14 players on their injury report as of today and are basically trotting out a G-league team. The Blazers offense has been hit hardest as they’ve scored 96 or less points in 3 of their last eight games and outside of one high scoring game against the Spurs, have averaged 101PPG in 7 of their last 8. With the Clippers content to get a win without exerting themselves we can’t see this game getting into the 230’s. |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - This is going to be a glorified AAU game and we don’t expect either team to play any defense in this one. The Rockets have given up 120 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and 130+ in three of those. Charlotte has been equally as bad allowing 120 or more in 4 straight games and an average of 126PPG in those four games. Houston ranks 28th in points allowed per game at 118.8, 22nd in opponents FG% and 28th in 3PT% defense. Charlotte ranks 22nd in PPG allowed at 117.5 per game, 19th in FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. The most critical defensive metric though is defensive efficiency as the Rockets are 29th in the NBA allowing 1.197PPP, while the Hornets are 20th at 1.158PPP. Charlotte has been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA all season long and the Rockets have picked up their tempo in their last five games. With nothing left to play for these two teams won’t expend any energy on the defensive end of the court and it will lead to a high scoring game. |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 3:05 PM ET - Extra rest is not exactly welcome this early in the season. Lineups are trying to get their timing going at the plate. Starting pitchers are trying to get settled into their regular routine. That said, this is a very tough spot for the Reds and particularly Hunter Greene. Cincinnati was supposed to play the Cubs Wednesday in the finale of that series but it was rained out. Then the opener of this series with the Phillies was rained out. Greene started the season opener for Cincinnati so he was supposed to pitch on more typical rest Wednesday but did not. Then Thursday's game was rained out and, remember, the Reds had an offday last Friday too. So they have played just 4 games in the past 7 days. The hitters are impacted and Greene is definitely impacted here. As for Wheeler, he pitched Saturday so he is in good shape here. Wheeler struggled in his first start this season, as did Greene, but Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a bad Reds team here. This is Cincinnati's first road game and the Phillies first home game this season. Reds were 29-52 in road games last season. On the year last season, 77% of the Reds losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a 53-36 run in home games including 20-7 last 27. Phillies 6-1 L7 against the Reds and 4-0 L4 at home and the 6 wins by an average victory margin of 3 runs. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler on good rest over Greene on too much rest, the defending NL Champs over one of the worst teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!
|
|||||||
04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - This game has a playoff feel as both teams could use a win here as they jockey for a better playoff position. Miami needs a win to lock in a spot in the postseason party and avoid a play-in situation. With a win the other night over Boston the Sixers still have a shot at catching the Celtics as the 2nd seed. It starts with defense for both teams as they rank 8th and 9th in defensive efficiency ratings. Both teams play slow too, with Miami ranking as the 2nd slowest team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, the Sixers are the 4th slowest. Philly is one of the most efficient offenses in the league but Miami is 25th. A big reason why the 76ers rank so high in OEFF is Joel Embiid. Embiid has struggled against the Heat averaging just 21.3PPG in the last six meetings which is well below his season average of 33.2PPG. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they’ve produced 215 and 200 total points. We expect another Under here. |
|||||||
04-06-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 7.5 or 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their opening starts. Expected starters are Chris Sale for Red Sox and Spencer Turnbull for Tigers. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Tigers are allowing 6 runs per game on the season and the Red Sox are allowing 6 runs per game as well. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Sale got hammered at home by the Orioles in his season opener. Keep in mind, he has not logged much MLB action since the 2019 season. He still carries a certain reputation in the marketplace but is not exactly the same pitcher he once was. Sale had a 4.80 ERA and a .288 BAA in spring training and has been homer prone, including his regular season opener, so far in 2023. As for Turnbull, he had a 4.50 ERA and was decent in spring training but then got rocked by the Rays in his regular season opener. The total on this game is low considering and we like the downward move from an 8.5 to a 7.5 as we are going to challenge these starts and these bullpens to turn things around here. We just do not see that happening. Historically, Turnbull has struggled much more in day games than night games and this is an early start in Detroit today. Also, Turnbull trying to come back from Tommy John surgery and missed last season. Tigers offense slow out of the gate this season but this is their home opener and that should get them going. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in the scoring department this season and should bounce back off yesterday's disappointing home loss. Over is the call this afternoon.
|
|||||||
04-05-23 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation. |
|||||||
04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here. |
|||||||
04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game. |
|||||||
04-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 234 | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 8:40 PM ET - You will want to watch the pregame injury report and confirm Nikola Jokic is in the lineup for the Nuggets before making this wager. The Warriors are going to play small ball here and use Draymond Green at the Center position. That means they are planning a fast-paced game and will push tempo. Golden State is the fastest paced team in the league at 101.7 possessions per game. They are 3rd in scoring at 118.3PPG. They should score at will against this Nuggets defense that is barely above average in defensive efficiency and rank 20th in opponents FG% against. Denver doesn’t play fast but they are highly efficient offensive with the 3rd best OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.180PPP. Golden State has historically been a great defensive team but that hasn’t been the case this season as they check in as the 19th worst defensive efficiency team allowing 1.149PPP. The Nuggets will put up points with their 10th scoring offense and the #1 ranked FG% unit at 50.6% and 2nd ranked 3PT% offense at 38.4%. In the two clashes between these two teams this season they have produced total points of 251 twice. We expect another high scoring game today. |
|||||||
04-02-23 | 76ers +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points. |
|||||||
04-01-23 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:30PM ET - These two teams just met last Tuesday in L.A. with the game finishing with 241 total points. The O/U number on the game was 225 so we are getting a little extra value here. There were a few anomalies in that game as the Pelicans shot extremely well at 53% overall and they made 21 of 34 3-pointers or 62%. Those percentages were well above their season averages of 48% FG% and 36.3% 3PT%. The Clippers also had an above average shooting night at 52% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Again, both of those numbers are well above the Clippers 47.6% FG% and 38.2% 3PT%. The Clippers are about average in defensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession allowed while the Pelicans are 5th best. In their most recent 5-games the Pels have the best PPP allowed at 1.019PPP. Prior to the hot shooting game in the previous meeting the 4 clashes prior between these two teams all resulting in 219 or less points. Bet UNDER here. |
|||||||
04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 38 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under. |
|||||||
03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - If the Playoffs where to start today this would be the 7/8 matchup play in game. In a playoff like atmosphere for both teams we like the defenses to rise to the occasion. Prior to the All-Star Break the Lakers were 25th in points allowed per game, giving up 118.2 per. The Timberwolves were better allowing 115.8PPG. Los Angeles has improved dramatically since the trade deadline and are giving up just 111PPG which is 6th best in the league. Minnesota has slipped slightly allowing 116.5PPG. Both teams were scoring more prior to the break too. The Lakers rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the season while the Wolves are 10th giving up just 1.139-points per possession. Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but recently (in their last five games) each team has slowed significantly in pace of play. Both teams are near average or below in offensive efficiency. These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 212 and 213. This game won’t be that low but it will be around 222. |
|||||||
03-30-23 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points. |
|||||||
03-30-23 | UAB -1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game. |
|||||||
03-29-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits. |
|||||||
03-28-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans. |
|||||||
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday. |
|||||||
03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - The Bulls are coming off a big upset win over the Lakers on Sunday which makes this the 2nd night of a back-to-back. This is also their 3rd game in 4 days and 4th in 6. The Clippers meanwhile are coming off a home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday night. New Orleans shot ridiculously well overall by hitting 53% from the field and by making 21 of 34 3-pointers. Those numbers are clearly an anomaly as the Clippers are solid defensively. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bulls allow the 7th fewest points per game this season, rank 6th in opponents FG% and 11th in 3PT% defense. Offensively neither team is great with the Bulls ranking 20th in scoring at 113.4PPG and the Clippers 23rd at 112.8PPG. The Clippers have stayed Under at home in 19 of their last 26 games when facing a team with a sub .500 record. The Bulls are 4-1 to the Under when playing without rest and those games have averaged 218PPG. When these teams met in late January, they produced just 211 total points. Expert another UNDER here. |