ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Air Force Falcons vs Washington State Cougars, Friday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #235

This is a match-up where both teams are going to see their defense struggle against a dangerous style of offense their simply not use to seeing. It is going to be a major challenge for the Cougars to try to stop the Falcons option attack and we also are projecting Washington State's all-out aerial assault to give the Air Force defense fits in this one. The Falcons averaged 292.5 yards per game on the ground this season and that includes many games (Mountain West action) against teams that are familiar with defending the option. The Cougars averaged 444.3 passing yards per game this season and Air Force hasn't faced a team with this prolific of a passing attack all season. Washington State was slowed down at Washington in their season-ending rivalry game. However, prior to that the Cougars had only two tough games on offense and both were against two high-quality defenses - Utah and California. In their other 9 games this season Washington State has averaged scoring 47.1 points per game! This is not an easy team to slow down as Air Force will quickly find out! The Falcons had a low-scoring season finale win over Wyoming - a team that trends under - but, prior to that, Air Force had gone through an 8-game stretch which saw them average 36.9 points per game. The Falcons will feast on a Cougars defense that has allowed 494 yards per game in its last 9 games. While the Air Force defense does have some impressive numbers on the season, they now face the #1 ranked (444 yards) passing team in the nation. The Cougars, before playing their biggest rival to close the season, had seen 4 straight games go over the total. Also, Falcons bowl games have gone over in 9 of 14 which makes sense as they almost always face teams not use to defending their style of attack. In this case you have a match-up where both teams present match-up problems. In bowl practice sessions leading up to this match-up, Washington State and Air Force could not properly simulate the offenses their going to face here and that increases the likelihood that both defenses will struggle badly in this one. Bet the OVER in this Friday late night match-up

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET

The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225

This game is in Detroit and while some may think Pitt is not all that excited to be here, we would disagree. Our word is the Panthers are really focused on getting their first bowl win since 2013 and head coach Pat Narduzzi is emphasizing just that. There is a massive gap defensively in this game. Pitt ranks 11th in the nation in total defense allowing only 302 YPG on just 4.4 YPP. Meanwhile EMU ranks 92nd in total defense (428 YPG) and allows over 6.0 YPP. EMU’s offensive stats look impressive averaging 29 PPG until you did deeper. The fact is they’ve only faced TWO defenses currently ranked in the top 20 Buffalo & Kentucky, and they scored 14 and 17 points in those games. They did most of their damage vs a slate of bad defenses including 7 of their opponents who ranked 79th in total defense or lower. Here they will face the best defense they’ve seen this year. Offensively for Pitt, their struggles have been in the red zone. They are averaging nearly 380 YPG (only 25 YPG less than an EMU team that has played vs a terrible defensive schedule) but they are only averaging 20 PPG. They are only averaging 18 yards per point which speaks to their red zone struggles. We think that changes here as they face one of the worst defenses they’ve seen this season and one that is terrible stopping teams in the red zone. EMU has allowed their opponents to score 33 TD’s in their 45 red zone trips this year which is 7th worst in the nation. They also struggle to put pressure on the QB (100th in sacks per game) so Pitt QB Pickett should be able to get comfortable and have a big game. On the flip side, the Panther defense leads the nation in sacks averaging over 4 per game which will be a big problem for an Eagle offense that relies heavily on the pass. Oh and if Eastern Michigan thinks they can run on Pitt, the Panthers have allowed only 2.9 YPC on the year which is the 8th best mark in the country. The MAC is 2-1 SU & ATS this year in the bowls but historically they’ve been terrible. Entering this season the MAC has only won 16 of their last 62 bowl appearances outright with a spread record of 20-40-2 during that stretch. Pitt is the much better team here and they seem to be focused on the task at hand which should lead to a big win here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PMET

The Packers have been treading on thin ice for quite some time and now and we think it catches up with them here.  They are 11-3 on the season but they have been outgained by their opponents 371 YPG to 336 YPG.  They rank 21st in the NFL in total offense and 23rd in total defense.  Those simply aren’t the numbers of an 11 win team.  Last week a struggling Bears offense outgained Green Bay by 123 yards but the Packers pulled out an 8 point win.  That was the 7th time this season GB has been outgained yet still won the game.  Aaron Rodgers is barely completing 50% of his passes over the last 3 weeks and Green Bay has been held to 24 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games.   It’s really tough to keep winning when you’re getting consistently outplayed on the stat sheet.  Especially on the road vs a solid team.  Minnesota is 6-0 at home with all but one win coming by at least 10 points.  Their average margin of victory here in Minneapolis is 13.5 points.  In the first meeting the Vikes rolled up 421 yards and held GB to just 335 but the Packers squeaked out a 21-16 win.  Minny QB Cousins, while most wouldn’t expect it, is having a better year the Rodgers.  He’s completing 70% of his passes (63% for Rogers), with 3,481 yards (Rodgers slightly less at 3,463), 25 TD’s (24 for Rodgers) and a rating of 111.1 (Rodgers is at 100.4).  If the Vikings lose here they give Green Bay the NFC North title.  A win by Minnesota extends us to next week to determine who wins the division.  The fact is the Vikes are better on offense (ranked 9th to 21st for GB), better on defense (14th to 23rd), and the better scoring team (7th to 14th for the Packers).  They are also a terrific home team winning 16 of their last 19 home games with 15 of those 16 wins coming by at least a TD.  Under Zimmer the Vikings are 28-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or less.  This has been a tough place for Green Bay to play as their last win in Minnesota was back in 2015.  Lay it with the Vikings here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay ready to respond after a 3-1 loss at Washington Saturday.  However, the Lightning are likely to be challenged by the high-scoring division rival Panthers in this one.  The last meeting between these clubs was a tight 2-1 Bolts win but low-scoring games like that have been the exception rather than the norm in this series.  In fact, prior to that low-scoring win, the over was on an 8-1 run in match-ups between these rivals.  The Lightning did register 48 shots on goal in that 2 to 1 win and they'll be blasting pucks on net throughout this one as well.  Prior to their 3-1 loss at Washington Saturday, Tampa Bay's last 3 games had all totaled 7 or more goals.  The Panthers last 3 games have averaged a total of 8 goals.  Florida is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and the Lightning rank right behind them.  Both these hockey clubs rank in the top 5 in the league for goals per game.  Per our computer math model, 8 goals likely here and we're expecting a very high-scoring battle in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Lightning game in early evening NHL action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211

This will almost absolutely be a situation of a team that wants to be here (Marshall) vs a team that had their sights set much higher this year (UCF). The Knights have played in back to back New Year’s Day bowl games facing Auburn & LSU and now they get stuck in the Gasparilla Bowl facing Marshall. Because of what they had done over the last few years, we felt UCF was overrated for much of the year and their spread record coincided with that thought as they were just 2-7 ATS their last 9 games of the season. Because of who they are, the oddsmakers had to set the lines a bit higher than they should have and UCF was unable to cover the inflated numbers. That’s what we have here. Should they be a huge favorite in a bowl game they probably don’t even want to be in? No. The Knights are definitely the superior team but Marshall is no slouch. Marshall returned a number of key players from a team that went 9-4 last year and had high expectations. They also have 30 kids on their roster from Florida so they will be extremely motivated to play well here in Tampa vs a top notch team. They started slow losing 3 of their first 5 games but the Herd closed the season winning 6 of their final 7. The Herd beat 5 of the 8 bowl teams they’ve faced this season. Their defense is solid allowing only 362 YPG and just 3.7 YPC on the ground. On offense Marshall will run the ball and try and control the clock keeping UCF’s fast paced offense on the sidelines. We think they can do just that vs a Knight defense that allowed over 170 yards rushing in 5 of their final 9 games. The Herd can throw it if need with mobile QB Isaiah Green who threw for 2,200 yards on the season. UCF relies heavily on the pass as they put it in the air 426 times this season which ranks them on the top 30. The weather could be a big factor in slowing down their aerial attack as 20 MPH winds are in the forecast. Marshall head coach Doc Holliday has been a fantastic bowl coach with a PERFECT 6-0 SU and ATS record. That includes an easy win here at the Gasparilla Bowl last year beating USF 38-20. Dating back to 1997, Marshall is an amazing 12-1 SU in bowl games. Will they win this one? Probably not but we expect them to battle and keep it within this huge pointspread.

ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona +9.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks continue to win but also continue to play close games with 10 of their 11 wins coming by 8 points or less.  Their miniscule +26 point differential means they have an average winning margin of +2 PPG.  Seattle’s injuries are also mounting and we think this will be a very tough game for Seattle.  Starting DE Clowney and starting safety Diggs are both doubtful.  Starting DT Woods has also just been suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s PED policy.  The Seahawk defense ranks 27th overall and 30th in pass defense and we have no doubt that Arizona will be able to score points and keep up in this one.  The Cards picked up some confidence last week putting up 38 points vs Cleveland in a win with QB Murray hitting 9 different receivers for receptions.  Seattle won the first meeting but the stats were almost identical with each team running 55 offensive snaps and the Seahawks outgaining the Cards by just 19 yards.  Arizona is now 4-1-1 ATS this year as a road dog while Seattle is just 4-2 SU at home this year with their wins coming by 1, 1, 6 in OT, and 7 points.  Their once vaunted home field advantage has dissipated as the Seahawks are just 10-11-1 ATS their last 22 home tilts.  Seattle has a massive game with San Francisco so while a win is needed, a look ahead is not out of the question.  This NFC West division game stays close

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 112 Points - South Carolina @ Virginia, Sunday at 3 PM ET on ABC

South Carolina likes a fast paced game but that won’t be happening here.  UVA is the slowest paced team in the nation and they will control their tempo at home.  The Cav defense is simply phenomenal ranking 1st nationally in defensive efficiency.  They allow just 0.73 points per possession on the season.  They have allowed a grand total of ONE team to top 55 points this year and in their 10 games they’ve held 8 opponents to 47 points or less.  South Carolina is not a good shooting team (231st in eFG%, 304th in 3 point %, and make only 60% of their FT’s) and we have a hard time seeing them reaching 50 points here.  On the other side, the Gamecocks are solid defensively ranking in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 in eFG% defense.  Like South Carolina, the Cavs are not a good shooting team.  They rank 317th in eFG% and 349th (3rd from the bottom) in 3 point percentage.  Despite their 9-1 record, Virginia has topped 61 points just ONCE the entire season and that was when the put up 65 points on a James Madison defense that ranks 313th nationally in defensive efficiency.  There will be very few 3-pointers made here and with the grinder pace this should be very low scoring.  With the spread set at UVA -11.5, the expected outcome is approximately 62-51.  Will UVA top 60 points?  Odds are they will not.  Will South Carolina get into the 50’s?  We don’t think so.  Take the UNDER here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

There will be plenty of points scored here between these two AFC North rivals. In the last meeting these two teams combined for 65 total points which easily eclipsed the total of 47. Baltimore put up 395 total yards in that game while the Browns put up a season high 530 yards and their second highest scoring output of 40-points. Baltimore has plenty to play for with revenge and an opportunity to clinch the 1st seed in the AFC with a win. The Ravens have the #1 efficiency offense in the NFL, #1 in yards per point scored (12.2) and first in scoring offense averaging 33.7PPG. The dynamic Baltimore offense has scored 40+ in four of their last six game and could easily get to that number here against a Browns D that is in the bottom half of the NFL in efficiency ratings. Cleveland just gave up 38-points last week to a Cardinals offense that was averaging just 20.9PPG (22nd) going into that contest. The Browns offense has been trending up since mid-November as they averaged just 19PPG prior to November 12th but have since averaged 25.2PPG. Cleveland does average 5.7 yards per play which is 14th in the NFL and we know they have enough weapons on offense to put up 21 or more in this contest. When you combine these two teams away/home Over/Under records this year they are a profitable 9-5 for the season. This game goes OVER the total rather easily.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213

We feel the wrong team is favored in this one. Our power rating have FIU as a 1-point favorite here and they are getting nearly a FG. Arkansas State comes in with a 7-5 record and one of the worst defenses in America. They rank 127th nationally (out of 130 teams) in total defense allowing 481 YPG and 122nd in rush defense allowing 224 YPG. Versus bowl teams this season ASU was just 1-4 SU and they were outgained by 177 YPG and outscored by 18 PPG in those games. Offensively they are a very pass heavy team ranking 14th nationally in passing yards, however this looks like a bad match up for them. FIU’s defense allows only 178 YPG through the air (6th nationally) and if they can slow down the Red Wolves through the air, they are not a great rushing team averaging only 3.6 YPC. FIU is much more balanced on offense and we anticipate them running very well on this porous Arkansas State defense. If they can control the ground game, they should win this game. FIU head coach Butch Davis (formerly the head coach at Miami FL & North Carolina) is a fantastic bowl coach. He has a 7-2 ATS record in bowl games and last year he led the Panthers to a 35-32 win over a very solid Toledo team as a 7-point dog. He did so without his starting QB James Morgan who was unable to play in that game and is excited to get his opportunity this year vs ASU. The Red Wolves head coach Blake Anderson is on the other end of the spectrum with just a 1-4 SU & ATS bowl record. We’ll take the better coach, better running game, and better defense as an underdog here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET

Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today.  While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother.  Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120.  However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category.  The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings.  They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100.  The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings).  The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion.  Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer.  We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201

Windy conditions expected in Nassau for the Bahamas Bowl.  As a result, the running game is going to be the key factor in determining the winner of this game as the wind will be a challenge for the passing attack.  That being said, while both teams do run the ball well, the run defense of the Bulls definitely holds the edge over the run defense of the 49ers.  Buffalo is running for 254.3 yards per game this season while Charlotte is running for 213.3 yards per game this season.  While there is a difference there in favor of Buffalo, the run defense variance is where you really see an edge for the Bulls.  The 49ers are allowing 190.8 yards per game on the ground this season while the Bulls are allowing only 95.3 rushing yards per game on the season!  Buffalo has been to recent bowls, including last season, but has come up empty and certainly has extra motivation here as a result.  For Charlotte, on the other hand, it could be a case of just being happy to be here.  This the first ever bowl for the Niners.  Even though the 49ers finished the season on a 5-game winning streak, 4 of the teams they beat finished the season with a losing record.  Charlotte, earlier in the season, had a stretch where they faced 4 teams that are bowl teams and they lost all 4 games by a combined margin of 101 points!  The Bulls finished the season winning 5 of their last 6 games and faced multiple bowl teams during this stretch.  With the better defense and the better ground game, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a Bulls win by double digits in this one.  Lay the points with Buffalo in what should be a blowout in afternoon action

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight.  

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche over Carolina Hurricanes, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET

The Avalanche are offering tremendous line value here. This is a classic over-reaction by the marketplace based on situational viewpoint. This is a back to back spot for the Avalanche but they enter this game on a 9-1-1 run. Included in the 9-1-1 run is a perfect 2-0 mark when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. On deck for Colorado is the same Blackhawks team that they just beat so there is no lookahead here. In fact the Avalanche are going to be very focused here. Why? The Avs moved into the Pepsi Center for home games 20 years ago. Since that time they had NEVER lost to the Hurricanes in regulation of a game. That is, until last season! The Hurricanes not only beat the Avalanche but shut them out 3-0 at the Pepsi Center. The Avalanche haven't forgotten and they are one of the best teams in the NHL this season and are particularly dangerous again with all key players back on the ice. Keep in mind Gabriel Landeskog and MIkko Rantanen had missed quite a bit of a time. With those guys back the Avs are as strong as they have been all season and that showed again in last night's 4-1 win at Chicago. While the Hurricanes are also playing well of late this is the final game of a 5-game road trip. Sometimes you'll see a team slip up in a spot like this because they've already had a successful trip and they're already thinking ahead to getting back home and facing an Eastern Conference foe rather than this non-conference match-up tonight. A big key here is likely to be the netminding also. The Hurricanes are likely to go with Petr Mrazek and he has a losing record on the road this season and has allowed 3 or more goals in 6 of his past 8 starts away from home. The Avs used their back-up goalie last night so that means Philipp Grubauer will get the start tonight. He had a rare tough start in his last game (versus the Stanley Cup champion Blues) and can't wait to get back on the ice. Grubauer has allowed an average of just 2 goals per start this season when off a game in which he allowed 4 or more goals. Also, at home this season he allowed 3 goals in his most recent start (a 7-3 win) and 2 or less goals in 4 of 6 home starts that preceded that one. Grubauer and the Avalanche are very tough on home ice and are being undervalued here. Per our computer math model, Colorado gets payback for the rare home shutout they were handed by Carolina late last season in March. In home games with a total set at 6 or more goals, the Avalanche have won 9 of 12 games this season. When the Hurricanes are off B2B wins by a multiple goal margin this season they have gone 0-3. After B2B blowout wins, that is the situation Carolina is in here and we look for the Canes to remain winless in that situation on the season. Bet Colorado Avalanche for a Top Play in NHL action Thursday

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET

We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here.  C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season.  The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak.  They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm.  There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season.  That would be a mistake.  ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen.  The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year.  Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most.  In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41.  They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining.  They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games.  LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams.  They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU.  Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle.  This game should be tight and we take the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON New York Islanders over Nashville Predators, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Predators are in a tough back to back spot here.  Also, they used Juuse Saros between the pipes in last night's win over the Rangers.  He actually has been playing better than Pekka Rinne of late but it will be Rinne getting the start tonight most likely since this is a back to back spot.  Rinne has allowed 4 goals in back to back starts and, in fact, has allowed 4 or more goals in 7 of his last 10 starts.  In those 7 starts Rinne has allowed an average of 4.6 goals per game!  The Islanders play a very controlled-type game that tends to frustrate opponents.  It was very early last season when the Islanders had both their meetings with the Predators and that was when head coach Barry Trotz was still working in his systems with New York in the earliest stages of his first season as the new head coach.  Of course as the season went on the Islanders got stronger but they did suffer an early season sweep at the hands of Nashville and they are looking for payback here.  The Islanders have a big rest edge here as they enter this game having had 2 days off while the Predators are in a back-to-back.  The Islanders have won 3 straight games and they have won 9 of 11 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games.  Also, the Islanders have won 6 of 7 this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games.  In home games with a total set at 5.5 goals, the Islanders are on a 25-8 run!  The stingy defense of the Islanders is why they lead the league with fewest goals allowed at 72 on the season.  The next closest team has allowed 80 goals.  The Predators, on the other hand, had allowed 3 or more goals in 5 of 6 games preceding last night's 5-2 win over the Rangers.  Nashville is 0-3 the last 3 times they've entered a game after allowing 2 or less goals in their prior game.  Not only a home ice edge and situational edge for the Islanders here, they also hold an edge in terms of special teams play as they have the better penalty kill and much better power play stats so far this season in comparison with the Predators.  Bet New York Islanders for a Top Play in NHL action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Western Illinois +2 over Eastern Illinois, Monday at 8 PM ET

This line opened with EIU favored by 2 points and with a massive 86% of the tickets coming in on that side, the line dropped to -1.5 at many spots.  That says that despite only 14% of the tickets in on WIU, heavy money came in on that side to move the number.  We agree with the move.   Western Illinois is just 2-6 yet they’ve been competitive in all but one game and that was @ Indiana to open the season.  The remainder of their losses were all decided by 7 points or less.  The Leathernecks are playing their best basketball right now.  They are 2-2 over their last 4 games with one loss coming by a single point and the other by 4 points @ Evansville who is 8-3 and won @ Kentucky this year.  Also 3 of those 4 games were on the road.  They haven’t played a home game since November 23rd and they’ve had 10+ days to get ready for this big home revenge game.  They lost 2 games to EIU last year and both went to the wire losing by 2 in OT and by 7.   Four of the five starters for Western in that game are back and they’ve been waiting for this one.  While they’ve been resting and preparing for this game, Eastern Illinois is off 2 huge wins at home vs UWGB last week and vs UW Milwaukee on Saturday.  While we like this EIU team quite a bit this year, this is a tough spot in a quick turnaround situation.  Despite their record, Western Illinois is very solid fundamentally as they rank 5th nationally in turnover percentage, 11th in 3 point shooting percentage, and #1 in FT percentage hitting nearly 89% as a team.  We like WIU to win this one at home so we’ll take the points here. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +1.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 4 PM ET

This line opened Vikings -3 and the vast majority of bets have come in on Minnesota this week (currently 77%) yet the line dropped off the key number of 3 down to -2.5.  That tells us that despite the heavy tickets on the Vikes, the heavy money has come in on the Chargers and we agree LA is the play here.  Let’s not forget this Charger team is much better than their 5-8 record and they were in the AFC Championship game last year with many of the same players on the team this year.  They are +71 YPG on the year and +0.8 YPP.  Their point differential is also +38 on the year which makes them one of only 2 teams with a losing record that is plus in the point differential (Indy is +1).  They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents and all of their 8 losses have come by 7 or less.  They are off a confidence boosting 45-10 win @ Jacksonville last year.  Their last 2 home games they whipped Green Bay 26-11 outgaining the Packers by 258 yards and a 7 point loss vs KC in a game they outgained the Chiefs by 130 yards.  Minnesota is coming off a division win over the Lions and they have a gigantic game vs the Packers on deck.  It is their 2nd trip to the west coast in the last 3 weeks (lost by 7 @ Seattle two weeks ago).  Minnesota has been great at home (6-0 record) but they are just 3-4 on the road with their wins coming against the Giants, Lions, and Cowboys, all losing teams.  While the Chargers are also a losing team, we feel they are the top below .500 team out there and this is a dangerous spot for Minnesota.  We think LA wins this game outright.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET

The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Michigan -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 12PM ET

Great spot for the Wolverines here.  They are coming off a loss @ Illinois on Wednesday and they are now back at home where they are 5-0 winning by an average margin of 88 to 69.  They’ve played an extremely tough schedule (10th most difficult in the nation so far) and they’ve already beaten 5 top 60 teams including Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa, Iowa State, and Creighton.  Their only losses on the season were @ Illinois and @ Louisville.  They play host to the Ducks here in what will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season.  They’ve played a few neutral site games including losses to North Carolina & Gonzaga in the Bahamas, the same 2 teams Michigan beat in that tourney.  The Wolverines are shooting 52% at home this year including 41% from beyond the arc.  That gives Michigan is huge advantage here as they are obviously comfortable playing and shooting at home facing a team that has yet to venture onto an opponent’s home court.  The Ducks have been a solid shooting team but in their 3 neutral site games they shot just 40% from the field and lost 2 of those games as we mentioned above.  Defensively Michigan should have the edge as well ranking 16th nationally in defensive efficiency (vs a very tough schedule) compared to Oregon’s 52nd in that same category.  It’s tough to win on the road period, much less vs a top notch opponent that will be extra motivated coming of a loss.  Oregon has won 20+ games in each of the last 2 seasons yet they are just 9-14 SU on the road.  We like Michigan in this spot.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – The Bucks continue to roll through the NBA, and they weren’t slowed the other night playing without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, beating the Pelicans 127-112. Milwaukee has the deepest bench in the NBA and a plethora of players capable of stepping up to make shots and score double-digits. The Bucks are 1st in scoring at 120.8PPG, 2nd in team FG%, 14th in 3PT% and 1st in rebounding. Most importantly here, they are the fastest paced team in the NBA overall at 105.2 possessions per game and the fastest when playing on the road. That great for our wager here as we know one thing for certain, this will be an up-and-down affair with Memphis. The Grizzlies played a stretch of games without rookie point guard Ja Morant who returned the other night to help lead Memphis to back-to-back wins against Golden State and Phoenix. Memphis is also one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA at 103.6 possessions per game, so they’ll gladly play at the Bucks tempo. The Grizzlies are 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.115 points per possession and only the Wizards allow more points at home than them (110.8PPG). The total on this game is barely higher than league average (221.6) with a pair of teams that like to play fast. We gladly bet OVER in this one.

ASA PLAY ON: Over 45 NY Jets @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:20PM ET – Our analytics say this game is going to be a higher scoring game. On the season the Jets offense has some less than appealing statistics, but they have scored 22 or more points in 4 of five and 34 points in three of those games. New York’s yards per play numbers are low but their yards per point average of 15.6Y.P.P.T is only slightly below league average. The Jets have nothing to lose at this point so expect them to open the playbook here on national TV against the marquee Ravens. New York has some impressive overall defensive numbers but the offenses they’ve faced has inflated those statistics. Against a few of the good offenses they’ve faced they’ve given up a ton of yards and points. Versus Dallas, who has similar numbers to the Ravens offense, the Jets allowed 400 total yards, 26 first downs and 22-points. The next best offenses they lined up against were the Patriots and Eagles who they gave up over 30-points to in each game. The Jets have some injuries on the defensive side of the football and are not facing the most diverse offense in the NFL with QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is 1st in average points scored per game at 33.1PPG, 2nd in total yards per game at 408.2YPG and 1st in rushing at 200.9RYPG. The Ravens offense had scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games before a pair of 20+ outings against two solid defenses of the Bills and 49ers. Our math model projects a Ravens win 32-17 or 49 total points being scored. We couldn’t agree more.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Blues over Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET

The St Louis Blues have endured their first streak of 3 consecutive regulation losses.  But things are about to change in a hurry.  The Blues are the defending Stanley Cup champs and they have been dealing with injuries and are now getting healthier.  Alexander Steen and Oskar Sundqvist both are likely to return tonight.  Also, Zach Sanford could be back on the ice for St Louis tonight as well.  On top of all that, the Blues are back on home ice where they are known for being particularly tough to beat.  Certainly Vegas knows all about that as they have never won here.  The Golden Knights are 0-3 all-time in games played at St Louis.  Vegas also might end up being a little flat here too emotionally.  Marc-Andre Fluery made his first start after a lengthy absence for bereavement leave and he had a great outing against the Blackhawks Tuesday night.  Everyone on the Golden Knights pulled together for that emotional win.  Now it is the hungry Blues that are likely to have the emotional edge in this one as they are emotionally charged up after the 3 straight regulation losses (only 1 was here in St Louis).  Look for a very strong effort from the Blues here.  They beat Malcom Subban and the Golden Knights 3-1 the last time these two clubs squared off.  The other two most recent wins (St Louis has beaten the Knights 3 straight times overall) came when Vegas had Fleury between the pipes and he allowed 9 goals in those two starts. In terms of the Blues netminding situation, they have allowed just 1 goal to Vegas in each of the last two meetings and that was once with Jake Allen and once with Jordan Binnington.  The point is that they are in good shape either way here.  The Golden Knights are 0-3 this season in road games with a total set at 5.5 goals by the odds makers.  Per our computer math model, the Blues improve to 4-0 all time when hosting the Knights.  Bet St Louis for a Top Play in NHL action Thursday  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Winthrop +12 over TCU, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Winthrop comes in with a 4-5 record but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation (45th ranked SOS) and they’ve been very competitive.  4 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or less and their other loss was by 13 points @ Duke.  In that game the Blue Devils were +10 made FT’s and shot 58% from beyond the arc to just 28% for Winthrop and it was STILL a competitive game.  Duke led by 7 at half and it was still a 7 point game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining.  In their 4 games vs top 130 teams, the Eagles beat St Mary’s on the road, lost @ Fresno by 3, lost at East Tennessee State by 3 and lost @ Duke by 13.  They are a dangerous team because they make 3’s at 9.3 per game (45th nationally) and tonight they face a TCU defense that ranks 332nd in 3-point percentage allowed at 39.2%.  The Frogs also allow their opponents to score 35% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 65th most in the nation.  The Frogs have played only 2 top 100 teams and lost to both (Clemson on a neutral site and USC at home).  Their most recent game vs USC on Friday the Frogs rallied from an 18 point second half deficit only to still lose by 2.  A lot of physical and mental energy was used in that come back and we expect them to be flat vs an opponent they may not get the motor going.  That would be a mistake.  Beyond their 2 losses, TCU has played only 2 other teams ranked between 100 & 200 beating UC Irvine at home by 1 & Illinois State at home by 12 which was their largest lead of the game (TCU led by just 6 with less than 4:00 remaining).  Winthrop is one of the better mid major programs (6 straight winning seasons) and they will be ready here as they have been all season vs big conference opponents.  They are rested as they’ve played only 1 game since December 1st and if TCU comes in flat at all, they could be in trouble.  Take the 12 points as we expect a tight game here.

ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Red Wings are having a horrible season and now have lost 11 straight games.  That being said, the biggest fear in playing the Jets here is that they might overlook Detroit.  However, that is not going to happen in this case because this is the front end of a home and home set between these clubs.  Knowing their next game is on the road, Winnipeg (on a 6-1-1 run as a host) wants to make sure they take advantage of home ice here.  Knowing their next game is against the Red Wings, the Jets will of course be fully focused on Detroit in this one.  That is bad news for the Red Wings and that is a key reason as to why Winnipeg is a -250 money line favorite in this match-up.  That price is very high with good reason and the value with this match-up, as a result, is the puck line!  The Jets at -1.5 goals are priced close to break even or at -105.  This is a great value considering that each of the Red Wings last 7 games have been losses by a margin of 2 or more goals.  In fact, those 7 defeats have come by a an average margin of 3.6 goals per game.  The Jets most recent win came by just a single goal but their three preceding wins all came by 3 or more goals.  Per our computer math model, this will be another win by a multiple-goal margin for the Jets as the Red Wings suffer a 12th straight loss - and 8th straight defeat by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Winnipeg is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Hofstra -4 over Stony Brook, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Hofstra was 27-8 last year and while they lost leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman they do return a number of key players from last season including 3 starters and their top reserve.  They have started slower than they expected with a 6-4 record, however they have played only 3 home games on the season.  In fact, their last home game was nearly a month ago on November 15th.  They have won 20 of their last 22 home games and they are coming off an embarrassing 73-45 loss @ St Bonnies on Saturday so we expect a big effort here.  Stony Brook comes in with a 7-3 record but 6 of their wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower.  Their lone decent win came against North Dakota State (ranked 157th) winning by 7 on a neutral court.  The Seawolves have also been very shaky on the road this year where they are 2-2 with their wins coming vs Wagner (ranked 330th) by 3 points in OT and vs Texas A&M Corpus Christie (ranked 305th) by 5 points.  They are shooting just 39% from the field in those 4 road games.  Hofstra is shooting over 47% in their 3 home games while averaging 85 PPG.  They have 9 days off after this so absolutely no look ahead, plus they’ve been away from home for a month as we mentioned.  Stony Brook, on the other hand, is coming off 2 easy wins at home vs weaker competition and they have a huge game on deck with Providence this weekend.  Getting a very solid Hofstra team at home in this spot with a manageable number is very nice value.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th.  He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills).  The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do.  Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out.  He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games.  Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go.  The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game.  They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week.  The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games.  Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here.  This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here.  Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points.  Take the points here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle.  We agree with the move and like the Rams here.  Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota.   Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record.  In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings.  The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season.  The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL).  Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona.  These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home.  The gives us value on LA here.  IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss.  LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record.  They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach.  This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot.  We like the Rams to win this game.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home.  The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks.  Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense.  Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of.  They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday.  The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17.  Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3).  Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here.  Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG.  Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5.  The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City.  They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck.  We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin (pick-em) over Indiana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Huge value with Wisconsin here in our opinion.  It this game was played 2 weeks ago, Wisconsin is favored by 3 to 4 points.  Now after a few losses, we’re getting them at an even game at home.  This becomes a huge home game for the Badgers who have lost 3 in a row to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State, all top 100 teams away from home (or neutral).  They shot absolutely horribly in those 3 losses (2 in NY and 1 @ NC State) and now that they are back in the Kohl Center we expect a much better shooting performance.  They made less than 20% of their 3 pointers combined in those 3 losses but they are hitting 37% behind the arc and averaging 75 PPG at home this year.  That includes a 16 point win over Marquette, the highest rated team they’ve faced this season.  Indiana is undefeated on the year but they have yet to play a road game, not even a neutral site game.  They have played only 2 top 100 teams on the season and their current strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 351 teams.  The Hoosiers are solid but they are a young team (2 freshmen starters) that we expect to struggle in their first road game.  The Badgers have DOMINATED this series winning 19 of the last 22 meetings with IU’s only wins coming by 1, 2, and 2 points.  Wisconsin will be in desperation mode at home after 3 straight losses and all they have to do is win this game to cover.  Take the Badgers.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106

The wear and tear of a season can take a toll on teams and the RedHawks will be playing for the 5th straight week here. The Chippewas, on the other hand, are the fresher team as they have had two late season bye weeks. This will be just the 3rd game for Central Michigan in the past 5 weeks as they had bye dates on the 9th and 23rd of November. Miami lost a few players to injury in the first half of last week's game against Ball State so then they rested players in the second half. The RedHawks were hoping to bounce back after almost losing outright to Akron as a 31-point favorite the prior week! We're not putting a lot of weight into either one of those late season games as Miami had already secured its position atop of the MAC East. However, what we are putting a lot of weight into is the fact that the RedHawks have an anemic offense. QB Brett Gabbert hardly played last week because he didn't need to but in the 6 preceding games he had thrown as many picks (6) as touchdowns (6) and he had been sacked an average of 2.2 times per game. He is a freshman and has completed just 54% of his passes this season. Conversely, Central Michigan QB Quinten Dormady is a senior completing 71% of his passes this season! In 4 of Dormady's last 6 games he has not been sacked. He has 13 TDs against just 5 INTs on the season. Dormady has thrown for at least 250 yards in all 5 of his games against MAC opponents this season! They have been a different team since he took over at QB. Dormady leads a Central Michigan offense that is one of the best in the MAC while Gabbert leads an offense that ranks not only among the worst in the MAC but among the worst in the nation! That will prove to be the difference in this match-up. The defenses are about equal but there is no comparison when looking at these two offenses and this game is being played where the NFL's Lions play. Ford Field is an indoor stadium and that means Dormady will be able to air it out all game long in this one. The RedHawks have been held to 27 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Chippewas have scored 38 points or more in 6 of their past 7 games. Head coach Jim McElwain, formerly a head coach at SEC school Florida, has led a huge turnaround in his first year at Central Michigan. Since turning to former Tennessee (another SEC school) recruit Dormady at QB, the Chips offense has taken things to another level. The RedHawks will not be able to keep up here. Both teams have had some defensive struggles away from home this season but it is Miami-Ohio's inconsistency on offense that will be the difference maker here. The RedHawks pace (61.7 offensive plays per game) ranks near bottom of nation and their efficiency (5.0 yards per play on offense) ranks in bottom twenty of the nation. That plodding and methodical style is not going to get the job done with the way McElwain's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. The Chippewas defense has it numbers skewed by the fact they had two rough performances in the MAC and lost an ugly game at Wisconsin in non-conference action this season. In their other 9 games this season Central Michigan has allowed 19 points per game. Taking a look at Miami lets remove their match-up with Ohio State and their two worst performances in the MAC from the equation and they have allowed 21 points per game in their other 9 games. As you can see, truly the defenses do rate about equal here but there is no comparison in terms of the offensive production and being able to lay less than a TD here is a bargain with high-flying Central Michigan as they have hit their stride at the right time of year and also are the fresher team here thanks to the more recent bye weeks. Lay the points with the Chippewas in very early Conference Championship action Saturday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Marc-Andre Fleury is back with the team after time away due to the passing of his father.  However, Fleury just arrived back with the team and is only going to serve as the back-up tonight.  Malcom Subban is expected to get the start again.  In the Golden Knights 4-3 win at New Jersey Tuesday, Subban allowed 3 goals which marked the 5th time in his last 6 road games that he has allowed at least 3 goals.  He is a respectable back-up but Subban is the back-up for good reason...he is no Fleury when it comes to his play between the pipes.  That being said, we're going to take advantage here and go over the low total of 5.5 goals set for this game.  While the Golden Knights have a high probability of allowing at least 3 goals they also have a high probability of scoring at least 3 goals too.  Vegas has begun to heat up again on this road trip and has scored at least 3 goals in 4 of its last 5 road games!  The Knights will take advantage of an Islanders team that has stumbled a bit of late.  New York has lost 4 of its past 6 games and their play in their D-zone has not been what it was earlier this season.  The Islanders have allowed 3 or more goals in 7 of their past 10 games.  New York struggled to score goals recently but most of those games were on the road.  In home games the Islanders have been a different team and have scored an average of 3.8 goals per game in their past 9 games on home ice!  With the Islanders looking to bounce back at home after a road loss Tuesday and the Golden Knights riding hot momentum on the road and looking to close out a perfect road trip, the set up here is perfect for this one to see 6 or more goals scored.  Bet the OVER in the Islanders game in early evening NHL action Thursday

ASA 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

Ohio State comes in undefeated however they have yet to leave Columbus.  All 7 of their games this year have been in the friendly confines of Value City Arena.  They are a young team (6 underclassmen averaging 10+ minutes per game) that may experience some growing pains on the road at times and we expect that in their first road game tonight @ the historic Dean Dome.  UNC has one loss but they’ve played the much tougher schedule, especially as of late.  The Heels are coming off games vs Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon last week all on a neutral site.  OSU has not played a top 100 team since November 13th with their last 4 games coming against Stetson, IPFW, Kent, and Morgan State.  Now they take a HUGE step up in competition and on the road.  We’re not sure they’re quite ready for that.   The Heels also got a boost last week when senior Brandon Robinson returned after missing their first 4 games due to an injury.  Robinson showed no signs of a slow start with 34 points in his 3 games while averaging nearly 30 minutes per game.  Super Frosh Cole Anthony (20 PPG) has a banged up ankle for UNC but he has been able to rest it since last Friday and he practiced on Tuesday and appears ready to go.  OSU has struggled on the defensive glass despite their easy slate and UNC is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation so we expect a big advantage on the boards.  It’s obviously very tough to walk into the Dean Dome and beat the Tar Heels.  They are 58-6 SU their last 64 home games AND 56 of those 58 wins have come by at least 4 points which would cover tonight’s number.  We like North Carolina to hand OSU their first loss of the season.

ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning over Nashville Predators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Predators are off a 3-0 shutout loss and are now 0 for 16 on the power play their last 5 games.  Nashville has lost 10 of its last 14 games and now faces a Lightning team off a 3-2 loss and ready to bounce back.  Tampa Bay was the #1 team (by a large margin) in the league in the regular season last year.  The Bolts were then promptly swept out of the playoffs in the first round and that means they are back on a mission here this season.  Now that the Lightning are getting healthier (Stamkos recently came back and Killorn should be back on the ice tonight), it is time for Tampa Bay to make another huge move up the standings.  Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight (all by a single goal) for the first time since March of last season!  Prior to this tough string of tight losses, the Bolts had won 6 of their past 8.  Getting the Lightning at a pick'em price here is a great bargain considering the situation.  The past two seasons this has been the time of year when the Bolts kick things into high gear.  Tampa Bay has won 24 of 27 games in the month of December the past two seasons.  The Lightning have been off since Saturday and they have won 21 of 31 when playing with two days of rest between games.  Nashville has lost 7 of 11 home games with a total set at 6 or more goals and the Predators won't be able to keep with the high-scoring Bolts in this one.  Tampa Bay's power play has been red hot this season (one of the best in NHL) and the Predators haven't scored a power play goal in their past 5 games.  Tampa has scored an average of 4.1 goals per game its past 10 games.  The Predators have scored an average of only 2.3 goals per game their past 10 games.  Bet Tampa Bay in evening NHL action Tuesday

ASA's 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Butler, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

These two met last year @ Butler and Ole Miss led by 5 with around 5:00 minutes remaining and lost by 7.  That should motivate them for this rematch.  Not only that, the Rebels, who are 5-2 on the season, are coming off an embarrassing effort in Kansas City facing Oklahoma State.  The Rebs were favored by 2 in that game and lost 78-37.  Yes you read that correctly.  It was simply a horrible performance as Ole Miss made 29% of their shots overall and made ONE 3-point shot in 20 attempts!  After the game head coach Kermit Davis called it “embarrassing” and we expect them to come out with some fire tonight at home.  They were playing well entering that game beating a very solid Penn State two days prior to this debacle and nearly topped #15 Memphis on the road a few days before that losing by 1- point.  Butler is 7-0 on the season and ranked 24th yet they are an underdog here against t team that just lost by 39 points?  That’s why the vast majority bets are coming in on Butler yet this line is not moving.  Ole Miss is still a favorite.  This is the Bulldogs first true road game and they have a huge revenge game on deck as they host Florida on Saturday, a team that beat them 77-43 last season.  Butler is solid but this situation sets up very nicely for an Ole Miss team that brings a number of key performers back from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  All they have to do is win at home and we feel they will give Butler their first loss of the season.  Take Ole Miss.      

ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET

NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons.  They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now.  They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser.  They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally).  Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year.  The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance.  However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech.  Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program.  With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5).  This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success.  We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 43 Points - Tennessee @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The spread on this game is currently Tennessee (-1) thus the final expected score is 22-21.  The Colts have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their 6 games this season and one of those low scoring games was with Brian Hoyer at QB and Jacoby Brissett sidelined with an injury.  Now facing a Tennessee defense that is trending downward allowing 25 PPG over their last 5 contests.  On the other side of the all, the Titans are playing very well offensively right now.  Since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB, Tennessee is averaging 29.5 PPG and they have scored at least 3 offensive TDs in each of his 5 starts.  Last week they tallied 42 points and 471 yards vs the Jags.  The last two games they’ve scored 77 points.  The oddsmakers have yet to catch up to this improvement as the Titans have gone OVER in all 5 of Tannehill’s starts yet this one is set in the low 40’s.  We like both offenses to have success here in perfect conditions in the dome and push this one OVER the total rather easily.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359

NC State won last year's game in overtime and there was a huge fight in the end zone after the game.  Suffice to say both teams will be highly motivated in this year's rematch but that is bad news for the Wolfpack because the Tar Heels are certainly the vastly superior team.  NC State was down 21 to 3 to Georgia Tech (UNC beat GT 38-22 by the way) at the half last week and that shows you have far this team has fallen as the Yellow Jackets have been enduring a rebuilding season and yet still went on to defeat the Wolfpack last week.  Now NC State faces a fierce rival seeking revenge and also seeking the necessary 6th win for bowl eligibility.  Even though the Tar Heels are away from home for this one, the road team has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.  North Carolina has a huge edge at QB in this match-up as Sam Howell as thrown for 32 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions.  NC State QB Devin Leary has just 7 touchdowns and has thrown 3 picks.  In his last 5 games Howell had one tough game at home against Duke but in the other 4 games he totaled 15 touchdowns against just 1 pick and this includes an 8-1 ratio in road games.  Leary, on the other hand, is trending the other direction with his 3 picks (against 4 TDs) all coming in his last 4 games.  NC State has lost 5 straight games and the average margin of defeat in those is 23.2 points per game.  The Wolfpack have averaged scoring only 17 points per game in their past 7 games.  That is bad news here for NC State as they simply won't be able to keep up in this game.  North Carolina has scored an average of 34 points per game their past 6 games (not including OT points in the 6-OT battle with Virginia Tech).  While the Tar Heels and Wolfpack rate about equal on the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina's does hold a big edge on offense.  The Tar Heels have amassed over 5,000 yards of offense this season and their 6.2 yards per play ranks them #3 in the ACC while NC State ranks 11th in the ACC averaging just 5.2 yards per play on offense.  In terms of technical support here the Wolfpack certainly have not been performing well in the underdog role.  NC State is 0-6 ATS the last six times they have been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points including 0-3 ATS this season.  In their last 5 ACC games the Tar Heels have averaged 325.2 passing yards per game.  In their last 4 ACC games the Wolfpack have averaged just 196.3 passing yards per game.  Per our computer math model, North Carolina piles up the yardage here and sends NC State to their 6th straight loss (both SU and ATS) as road team dominance in this series continues and the Tar Heels get revenge for last season's OT loss (and game-ending fight) that ruined the night at Chapel Hill!  UNC hasn't forgotten that one!  Lay the points with the Tar Heels as a road favorite in evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #431

Oregon State has allowed 31 points or more in 8 of its 10 games against FBS opponents this season.  While the Beavers defense consistently has issues, the offense has certainly impressed this season.  Oregon State has scored 35 points or more in 3 of its last 4 games.  The Beavers have scored an average of 41.2 points per game in road games this season.  Look for Oregon State to put up plenty of points here against the rival Ducks.  The Oregon defense was great earlier this season but the Ducks enter this game having allowed 24 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games including at least 31 points three times during this stretch.  Based on the above it is not a surprise to hear that our computer math model is calling for the Beavers to score quite well here but the key to the value with this over is the forecast for the Ducks to deliver an absolute onslaught here when they have the ball.  Oregon has averaged 40.8 points per game in its 6 home games this season.  Also, the Ducks don't hold back when facing their in-state rival and they are a large favorite in this game with good reason.  Oregon has scored an average of 62 points per game in their past two meetings with Oregon State!  There is a chance for rain in the forecast for this game but most of that is expected to move into the area in the evening hours.  Also, winds are forecast to be light.  All the right ingredients are there for plenty of points in Eugene, Oregon Saturday afternoon.  The over is 14-3 in Oregon State road games since the beginning of the 2017 season and that includes 5-0 perfection in a road game where the total is set between 63.5 and 70 points.  Oregon enters this game angry after losing outright at Arizona State as a double digit favorite.  The over is 10-2 when the Ducks are off an upset loss as a road favorite.  That is a long term trend but makes sense from a logical standpoint.  The logic being that Oregon is ready to turn the table on an opponent when they are off an upset away from home.  In this specific instance now you have the Ducks at home ready to take out their frustration on the rival Beavers.  The set up is perfect for a ton of points in this one because the Oregon State offense has impressed this season too and they'll score their fair share in this one as well but the Ducks offense won't be stopped.  Bet the OVER in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

This line is light according to our power ratings.  We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here.  The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom).  The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2).  Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category).  In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2.  Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half.  This is a favorable match up for the Hall.  They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team.  They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally).  The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones.  They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s.  As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one.    

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339

The Huskies have good recent history in this rivalry but Washington enters this game off a loss at Colorado and has now lost 3 of 4 games. Washington State enters this game riding the momentum of a key comeback win at Oregon State where the Cougars rallied and scored the final 14 points of the game. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has thrown for nearly 5,000 yards and has 45 touchdown passes this season. He led the huge win last week by throwing for 6 touchdowns and the Cougars got the final TD with just a couple ticks left on the clock. Normally a team can be expected to be flat after a game like that but rivalry games are most definitely an exception. Especially considering the Huskies recent dominance in this series, there is no way the Cougars will be flat here. Look for Gordon and company to ride the momentum of last week's win over the Beavers which also gave Washington State the all-important 6th win for bowl eligibility. With Gordon at the controls the Cougars have been tough to stop as the season has gone on. While the Huskies enter this game with losses in 3 of 4, Washington State has won 3 of its last 5 games and one of the losses was by just 2 points at Oregon! In fact, the Cougars 5 SU losses this season have featured 3 by just 4 points or less. Per our computer math model, Washington State has a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, it is expected to be by just a single score. That means we have great value here with getting more than a TD in this one. Washington State, after a tight win by 7 points or less over a conference foe, has gone 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU). Washington, off an outright upset as a road fave of 7 or more points, has gone 3-8 ATS. The Huskies are dealing with a very dangerous dog in this year's match-up as Washington State is riding a wave of late-season momentum. Grab the points with the Cougars as a road dog in afternoon action Friday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET

Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion.  They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6).  Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense!  The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards.  Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco.  Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9.  They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays.  Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami.  Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee).  The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd.  The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%.  The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL).  That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense.  We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game.  Lay the points with Dallas.

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma -4 over Stanford, Monday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN2

Both these teams come in undefeated but all records are not created equal.  OU has beaten 2 top 75 teams (Minnesota & Oregon State) both by 8 or more points and both on neutral courts.  The Sooners are experienced returning 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and gave Virginia a run in the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney last year before falling to the eventual National Champion.  Stanford is the opposite as far as experience.  They are young starting 2 freshman including point guard Tyrell Terry.  The Cardinal have yet to leave their home arena this season and we’ll see how this young team adjusts to a different environment.  We know Oklahoma can adjust as we mentioned with 2 solid win not on their home court.  On top of that, Stanford has not yet played a team ranked higher than 134th and 5 of their 6 games have come against teams rated 200th or lower.  This will be by far the best defense Stanford has faced with Oklahoma ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency.  Prior to this the Cardinal have not faced a team ranked inside the top 125 in defensive efficiency.  The Sooners are a very well coached team under Lon Kruger and it shows in their key stats where they are very good defensively, they turn the ball over very little (5th best turnover ratio in the country), they get to the FT line and make them when the do get there (81% as a team), and they don’t foul very much with their opponents getting only 8.7% of their points from the line which is the lowest mark in the NCAA.  Kruger has his teams playing well early in the season with a 27-2 SU record in November & December since the start of the 2017 season.  We’ll lay this small number with Oklahoma on Monday night on a neutral court in Kansas City, a venue they are very familiar with as the Big 12 tourney is played here.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 47 Points - Baltimore @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

This number is set a few points higher than our projection and we think the value is on the UNDER here.  The main reason it is set higher than it should be is because of Baltimore’s offensive performances over the last month or so.  They have scored at least 30 points in 4 straight games.  However, 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced rank 22nd or lower in YPP allowed and defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders.  The one good defense they faced during that stretch was New England and while they did put up 37 points, they really didn’t put up huge stat numbers with 372 yards on 5.8 YPP.  They did have a defensive TD in that game as well so based on those numbers they normally would have scored in the mid to upper 20’s in that situation.  The only other top 10 YPP defense the Ravens have faced this year is Pittsburgh and they scored 23 in regulation in that game.  The Rams are the 4th best YPP defense in the NFL (4.8) and they’ve held 7 of their 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer.  They are also excellent at stopping the run allowing only 3.3 YPC on the season which ranks 2nd in the NFL behind only the Jets.  That is key vs Baltimore that runs the ball more than another other team in the NFL.  Many still view the Rams offense has a high scoring outfit which simply isn’t the case anymore.  They are averaging 24 PPG which is down nearly a full TD from last season.  They have scored only 29 combined points in their last 2 games vs Pittsburgh and Chicago.  They ran the ball 34 times last week (only 18 passes) vs a solid Chicago defense and we feel they’ll have the same gameplan tonight.  Run the ball vs a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st allowing 4.4 YPC.  That will keep the Baltimore offense off the field which is key.  The Raven defense has been keeping teams out of the endzone allowing 20 points or less in 5 straight games and with the Rams struggling on offense, we just don’t see many points tonight.  Take the UNDER in this one.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Akron +18.5 over Louisville, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a unique situation early in the season as these two teams have already played 3 common opponents.  With that, we have a pretty solid comparison.  Each has played USC Upstate, Youngstown State, and NC Central.  Both are 3-0 vs those common opponents and the results have been fairly similar.  Akron has beaten those teams by an average of 21 points while Louisville has beaten them by an average of 26 points.  Akron is a veteran team that can shoot the ball well from deep.  That plays into Louisville’s weakest part of their defense as they rank 145th in 3-point defense.  Teams that have good guard play and can hit from deep are always a threat as a big underdog.  Akron also plays very good defense which is another big factor.  They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and that’s no fluke as they ranked 14th in that category last season.  Akron’s only loss this year was a 10-point setback @ a very solid West Virginia team in a game that the Zips shot only 38%.  They impressed us on the boards in that game getting out rebounded by just 1 against a WVU team that is consistently among the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Akron proved last year they can hang with top notch opponents as they took Clemson to the wire (lost by 3) as well as a 29-5 Nevada team (lost by 6).  This number is too high as we expect the Zips to be competitive here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points - Carolina @ New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Carolina offense has been trending downward for weeks now.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their offense was held 16 points or less in 3 of those 4 games.  Now that defenses have tape on Panther QB Allen, they have been able to slow him down after a red hot start.  In the last 4 games he’s only thrown 3 TD passes.  We don’t expect that to change against a very good Saints defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders.  On the other side, many still view the New Orleans offense as the high potent, high scoring attack they had last season when they averaged 31 PPG.  That really isn’t the case this year as the Saints rank nearly the middle of the pack in scoring (23.8 PPG), total offense (364 YPG) and offensive efficiency (5.7 YPP).  In the 5 games Drew Brees has started at QB, they’ve actually averaged fewer points than their season average (22 PPG).  Last week they scored 34 points, however on TD came from the defense, and Buc QB Jameis Winston set them up nicely on a few others throwing 4 picks.  The Saints only had 328 total yards on 5.1 YPP vs a poor Tampa defense.  Now they face a much better Carolina defense that ranks 13th in the YPP allowed.  The Panthers do have one weakness on defense and that is their rush defense which means we expect the Saints to run the ball a lot which eats up the clock.  These two division rivals know each other very well and we anticipate somewhat of a defensive battle here that lands in the low 40’s.  We’ll take the UNDER.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record.  Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game.  We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable.  Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half.  QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards.  Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL.  Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win.  The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee).  Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati.  Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading.  While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned.  Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season.  Those are the stats of a .500 type team.  Buffalo struggles to score.  If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG.  Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle.  The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less).  Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less.  We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137

The Sooners are one of the top teams in the nation and they have a fantastic offense. Certainly their offense rates the edge in this match-up but the Horned Frogs have proven they can put up plenty of points too as they are averaging 32 points per game on the season and the keys to the value with this play are many. TCU has the edge on defense in this match-up. Keep in mind that prior to the Sooners miracle comeback win against Baylor last week, they entered the 2nd half of that game having allowed an average of 12 points per quarter over their prior 10 quarters of football. That equates to an average of 48 points per game against the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and the 1st half of the Bears game. Give credit to the Sooners for their huge 2nd half comeback but the defensive edge in this match-up belongs to Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had two ugly games in terms of points allowed this season but in the other 8 they have allowed an average of only 22.4 points per game. They are dogs of about 18 points in this match-up and they are getting strong play from QB Duggan as he led the way against Texas Tech last week. While the Horned Frogs hung on for a well deserved win last week, the Sooners were fortunate to storm all the way back for their comeback win at Baylor. Also, Oklahoma has their biggest rival, Oklahoma State, on deck and they have failed to cover 5 of the last 7 times when they have the Cowboys on deck. This is a definite sandwich spot for OU off the big win over the previously undefeated Bears and with rival Oklahoma State on deck. Also, the 52 points that OU put up on TCU last year was the most points ever scored in this series. The Horned Frogs defense is ready to make up for that performance here. The Sooners enter this game on a 1-5 ATS run as they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Games since mid-October for Oklahoma have included a 7-point loss to Kansas State and 3 wins over Texas, Baylor and Iowa State that have come by a total of 11 points. That means in those 4 Big 12 games OU has a point differential net of just +4 or 1 point per game yet here they are laying more than two touchdowns. We'll take it! 4 of the Horned Frogs 5 SU losses this season have been by a margin of 7 points or less. Per our computer math model, this one will be too! Grab the points with TCU as a big road dog for a Top Play in evening action Saturday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning over St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

We have had our eyes on this match-up for awhile.  Last season the Bolts were the #1 regular season team and yet then got swept right out of the playoffs in the first round!  That was a shock!  It also was a shock when St Louis was dead last in the NHL standings pretty deep into the NHL season and then yet improbably rallied in an amazing run that led them to the ultimate prize when they hoisted the Stanley Cup in June!  In other words, the Lightning have had this game circled in red as a "barometer game"...the type of game that will prove the Cup can be theirs!  The Blues did beat the Bolts in both meetings last season but only by a goal each time.  Also, the meeting in St Louis saw Tampa Bay out-shoot the Blues by a heavy margin even though they came up a goal short on the scoreboard.  The set up here is perfect as the Lightning come into this game scoring a lot of goals and playing very well while St Louis enters this contest struggling to score goals and on a losing streak.  The Blues have lost 3 straight games and have managed a total of just 5 goals in the process. The Lightning have won 4 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 5 goals per game during this hot streak.  Tampa Bay will prove to be the hungrier more motivated team here and are off a regulation loss (4-3) to the Jets.  Not only have the Lightning not had back to back losses in regulation this season, they also are 50-18 (including 5-2 this season) when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals!  Bet Tampa Bay in evening NHL action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points - Purdue Fort Wayne @ Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Jon Coffman took over the PFW program back in 2015 and he has implemented a full speed, up tempo style that lends to a lot of points being scored.  His team has been in the top 35 in adjusted tempo each of the last 3 years and they are at it again this season.  That’s great offensively as their pace gives them more possessions and opportunities and their offense has been very effective.  Since Coffman took over they have been in the top 35 in effective FG% in all but one of his seasons at the helm.  They are headed there again this year as this is a very good shooting team that ranks in the top 70 in shooting percentage inside the arc and outside the arc.  The Matadors have scored at least 78 points 4 of their 5 games and the only game that they did not was @ UNLV where they shot only 27% from beyond the arc but still scored 71 points.  Now the downside to their tempo.  Their defense stinks and their pace gives the opponent more shots as well.  They currently rank 309th in defensive efficiency after 5 games and that is not an aberration.  This team has not finished above 215th in defensive efficiency in any of Coffman’s seasons.  They have allowed at least 79 points in 4 of their 5 games this season.  That lends itself well tonight to a Kent offense that is averaging 78 PPG and likes to play fast when given the opportunity.  The Kent defense was poor last year (274th in eFG% allowed) and we expect them to struggle on that end of the court again this year.  They’ve haven’t been terrible in their 2 games vs Division 1 opponents this year allowing 43.5% shooting but even with that they gave up 151 points in those 2 games (75.5 PPG).  With Kent favored by 10 and the total set at 149.5, the oddsmakers expect an 80-70 final score.  We think Kent has a decent chance to top 80 vs a bad PFW defense.  We also are confident that PFW has the offensive firepower to top 70 in this game.  PFW has gone OVER the total 23 of their last 31 road games (75%).  Take the OVER.

ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET

UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite.  Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%.  It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG.  It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season.  Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons.  They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago.  Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game.  In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State.  They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss).  App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation.  Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record).  They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around.  While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season.  Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season.  It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally.  App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate.  This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home.  UNCG wins by double digits. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high.  Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win.  Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%.  The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards.  The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball.  In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air.  We think Houston can do just that.  Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored.  Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona.  The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright.  Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game.  In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less.  We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.  

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353

Not only is Wyoming 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, the 3 SU losses the Cowboys have all came by 4 or less points. Out of 9 games this season no one has soundly beaten Wyoming and that includes the Broncos last week in a game played at Boise State. The Cowboys, with back-up QB Tyler Vander Waal, nearly pulled off the outright upset as a 2 TD+ dog at Boise last week. There has been a different "feel" in the Wyoming locker room this season and this team just gives it all they have week after week in terms of their effort no matter the situation. With that being said, we certainly look for the Cowboys to give the Aggies all they can handle this week. Utah State is off an upset win at Fresno State last week so this sets up perfectly. Prior to that win over the Bulldogs, the Aggies had lost 3 of 4 games and the 3 losses all came by big margins. Those 3 losses for Utah State featured an average margin of defeat of 29 points per game! Last season the Cowboys got the ATS cover for the 3rd straight time in this series with the Aggies but Wyoming did lose the game SU at home even though they held a 331 to 194 yardage edge! It was a fluke final score and the Cowboys now have a score to settle with Utah State in this season's rematch. Aggies QB Love is highly touted but he has more INTs than TDs this season and has struggled badly in his two career meetings with the Cowboys as well. Wyoming's pass defense has been a strength again this season and Love has 4 INT's and 0 TD's in his two career games against the Cowboys D. On the other side of the ball, Wyoming relies heavily on their ground game and should enjoy some success on the ground here. The Aggies front seven on defense suffered a major blow with the loss of linebacker David Woodward. Already without a senior defensive lineman (Fua Leilua) that was expected to be a key contributor this season, the loss of Woodward is huge. He had 134 tackles last season and already had 93 this season. The Cowboys take advantage and QB Vander Waal certainly had a respectable game against a tough 8-1 Boise State team last week. All it takes is a little success with the aerial attack (like he had last week) to open things up even more for the ground game! On that note, Utah State has allowed 275 rushing yards per game the past 3 weeks. Per our computer math model, the Aggies defense gets run on big in this game too and once again Love has another bad game against a Cowboys pass defense that has given him fits each of the past two years. More of the same here and we'll bet this game with the points but we don't expect to need them! Grab the points with Wyoming as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #390

The Tigers have scored a total of just 21 points in their last 3 games. Not only is Missouri scoring an average of just 7 points in games played since mid-October, the Tigers D has truly stepped up this season. Missouri had a tough season opener but their defense has allowed an average of just 17 points per game since then. On Saturday, the Tigers host a Florida team that, similar to Missouri, has seen their defense slip up just once this season. That lone slip-up for the Gators was against LSU and these Tigers are certainly not those Tigers! Against Missouri, the Gators should enjoy plenty of success on the defensive side of the ball just like they have in their other 9 games this season that were not against LSU. In those 9 games Florida has allowed an average of only 12 points per game! You can see why we like the Gators defense here against a struggling Missouri offense. As for the flip side, look for the Florida offense to quickly come back down to earth after their thrashing of Vanderbilt last week. For defensive efficiency this season the Commodores rank 124th in the nation! Now this week the Gators are on the road and facing a Tigers defense that ranks in the top 10 in the nation for defensive efficiency as Missouri is allowing an average of only 4.5 yards per play! The under has cashed in 5 of 6 times when Florida enters a game off an SEC win by a double digit margin. Missouri has been trending under all season long including 7 of their last 8 games finishing under the total. Bet the UNDER in this very early Saturday match-up.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Lightning seek revenge from a recent 4 to 1 loss to the Rangers.  Tampa Bay is well-rested here as they have been off since Saturday since that was part of their 2-game series against Buffalo in Stockholm, Sweden.  The Lightning have had a lot of extra practice time thanks to their recent schedule and they'll come in skating very well in this one with fresh legs.  Tampa Bay has a potent offense and, again, they are out for revenge here.  Both the Lightning and the Rangers have fared very well on the power play but struggled on the penalty kill so far this season.  Of course that is a good "recipe" making for high-scoring games.  The Rangers come into this game with plenty of confidence as they are 6-2-1 their last 9 games and have averaged 4 goals per game during this stretch.  The Bolts come into this game having won 3 of their last 4 games and also averaging 4 goals per game during this hot streak.  The Lightning were 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against the Rangers before losing at New York two weeks ago.  Tampa Bay was held to just 1 goal in that game but had scored an average of 5 goals in their 5 most recent meetings with the Rangers entering that one.  When Tampa is off a divisional game the over is 41-24 including 5-2 this season.  The over, entering this season, was 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and while the Rangers (just like on the 29th of October) might again score 4 goals here, the Lightning are also expected to find the back of the net at least 4 times in this one.  The result?  Look for a "barn burner" type of game here with end to end action in this one.  Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in NHL early evening action Thursday.

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh Penguins over New York Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Penguins are without Sidney Crosby for this one but that is helping to keep this money line in a very fair price range.  That, coupled with the fact that Evgeni Malkin has been on an absolute tear for Pittsburgh since returning to the ice is why we are elevating this play to top game status.  The Penguins have won 11 of their last 16 games against the Rangers and that includes 7 of 10 in New York.  Pittsburgh has not lost in regulation in any of the past 6 meetings between these divisional foes.  Overall, the Penguins enter this game having gone 4-1-1 their last 6 games.  Also, even though Pittsburgh is without Crosby here, the Rangers remain without Mika Zibanejad.  New York enters this game having lost 38 of its last 59 divisional games.  Also, when facing a team with a winning record, the Rangers have lost 59 of 92 games!  Per our computer math model, these recent season trends are likely to continue here as Pittsburgh dominates this one.  The Penguins get another big win tonight to improve to 4-0 in divisional games this season!  Bet Pittsburgh in early evening NHL action Tuesday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over the Total - Seattle @ San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

This Seattle team is a complete 180 from the teams they had a few years ago that focused on defense and simply controlling the game on offense.  This year’s team has a poor defense (27th in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders) and a very good offense (3rd most efficient per Football Outsiders).  They need to try and win higher scoring games because their defense can’t stop other teams.  The Seattle defense has allowed 28 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games.  Even with that, the Seahawks won 4 of those 5 games which tells you what they can do offensively.  The SF defense has been very good however some of that is most likely due to the offenses they’ve faced.  In fact, of the last 8 teams they’ve faced, not one ranks in the top half of the NFL in offensive efficiency (yards per play).  Tonight they face a Seattle offense that ranks in the top 7 in total offense, offensive efficiency, and points scored.  They are also facing the hottest QB in the NFL at this moment as Russell Wilson has the highest QBR in the league and has thrown 22 TD’s and just 1 interception on the year.  In their most recent game the Niner defense showed some flaws vs an Arizona offense with a rookie QB (Cards had 25 points and 400+ yards).   Seattle will put up points tonight.  San Fran will do the same vs this porous Seattle defense.  If we throw out their game @ Washington that was played in a monsoon, the 49ers have scored at least 24 points in all but one game this year.  With this spread set at SF -6, the expected score tonight would be around 26-20 or 27-21.  We think both teams top those projected offensive scoring numbers and we take this one OVER the total.   

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here.  Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here.  There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland.  We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them.  That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well.  We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season.  Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record.  They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee.  Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game.  They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them.  The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year.  Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense.  Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins.  Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well.  We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday.  We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team?  Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation.  Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo).  The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite!  Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184

The sharp money is on Texas in this game. As of Thursday afternoon, 67% of the tickets are being written on Kansas State in this game since the line opened up at -5 and yet the Longhorns are now up to a -7. That tells you that the bigger wagers are coming in on Texas in this one. The set up here is ideal as the Wildcats are off back to back huge wins. In the past three weeks Kansas State is off 3 straight big wins. They won at home against TCU, then upset Oklahoma when they hosted the Sooners and then followed that up with a huge win against the rival Jayhawks at Kansas. Sure one could argue that Kansas State has plenty of momentum here but what we see with this is an over-rated Wildcats team due for a letdown game. That is why they are ranked 20th in the nation and yet odds makers are favoring the un-ranked Horns in this spot! The fact is that upset wins, of course, do happen in College Football and the Wildcats put it all together when they upset the Sooners two weeks ago. However, Kansas State's other 5 wins this season have included a win over an FCS school (Nichols State) and 4 other FBS teams of which NONE have a winning record. The Longhorns are going to be ready here. They are coming off a bye week and this followed a game in which QB Sam Ehlinger threw 4 interceptions in an ugly loss against TCU. Poor games on offense have certainly been the exception rather than the norm this season for Ehlinger and the Horns. Texas has been particularly strong in Austin as they have averaged 42.3 points in their 4 games at Memorial Stadium this year. Where the Longhorns have had issues this season is on the other side of the ball but therein lies the key to this match-up. Texas is coming off a bye week and finally near 100% health on the defensive side of the ball. The key is their secondary is getting back to full strength this week. Both safeties Caden Sterns and BJ Foster are coming back this week. Also, DeMarvion Overshown is expected to play for the first time this season as the defensive back got injured right before the season in fall camp and has been upgraded to probable for this game. Texas was counting on Overshown as a key member of the secondary as well and you can see why we're expected a much improved performance from the Longhorns defense in this one. They are finally healthy and they catch the Wildcats at the right time and in the right place to deliver a blowout win and that is precisely what our computer math model is forecasting here. The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Make that 8-0 ATS when this one goes into the books! Lay the points with Texas and look for a home blowout in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3 PM ET: Game #149

We look for the Buffaloes offense to get back on track here but as for this defense it has been consistently bad. Colorado has allowed over 400 yards in every single game this season! Though the Stanford offense does not have the most impressive numbers, they are certainly a different team with Costello back at QB. The Cardinal enter this game off a bye and KJ threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs (with no picks) at Arizona in their game prior to the bye. He'll feast on a very bad Buffaloes defense in this one and weather conditions are expected to be perfect with mild temperatures and light winds in Boulder, Colorado Saturday afternoon. Clear skies, highs around 70, and winds near 5 mph which also means that the Buffaloes passing attack can open it up "full throttle" here too. The weakness of the Cardinal D is its pass defense and Colorado can exploit that at home. Not including OT points, Colorado has averaged 29 points per game in its 4 home games this season. The Buffaloes defense, not including OT points, has allowed 31 points in ALL but one of its nine games this season. The over is 4-1 in Stanford's last 5 games against a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0 this season in Cardinal road games. The over is 4-1 this season in Buffaloes games played in Colorado (opened the season in Denver against Colorado State). Bet the OVER in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 48 Points - LA Chargers @ Oakland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

We expect to see a back and forth scoring game tonight.  Oakland’s offense is solid averaging 6.2 YPP which is 3rd in the NFL behind only Dallas and KC.  They had scored at least 24 points in 5 straight games including 31 points (400+ total yards) last week here vs Detroit.  Their offense rates 5th in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders.  They are a very good running team (4.8 YPC good for 8th in the NFL) and QB Derek Carr is quietly having a very good season now that he’s healthy (71% completions, 1,980 yards passing, 13 TD’s, and just 4 interceptions).  The problem is their defense stinks.  They’re going to need to score a fair amount of points to win games.  The Raiders are allowing 6.3 YPP which is better than ONLY Cincinnati this season.  Last week Detroit roasted this defense for a ridiculous 7.6 YPP.  Three weeks ago Green Bay averaged almost 9.0 YPP in their game vs Oakland.  We don’t see them slowing down a Charger offense that ranks 9th in the NFL in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) and put up 442 yards on Green Bay last week.  The Chargers had 26 points in the game but could have had more as they got up 26-3 and went conservative in the 4th quarter.  As for the Charger defense, they played very well last week but they also caught Green Bay in a terrible spot on the road a week after beating KC on the road.  Aaron Rodgers even admitted his team may have been reading their press clippings and came out flat.  The 5 teams they faced leading into their GB game were Chicago, Tennessee, Pittsburgh (back up QB), Denver, and Miami, all poor offenses.  Those teams rank 18, 26, 27, 28, and 30 in scoring offense and 22, 23, 27, 28, and 31 in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders).  Oakland will be the most efficient offense they have faced this season.  This line is around a pick-em which tells us the final score should be 24-24 or in that range.  We expect both of these teams to top 24 tonight and we’ll grab the OVER.    

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Vegas Golden Knights over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Perfect set up here.  The Golden Knights are happy to be on the road for a change of scenery after losing back to back home games where they had a multiple goal 3rd period lead in each game!  Vegas simply can't wait to get back on the ice tonight and they're also welcoming back #1 goalie Marc-Andre Fleury whom had been out with the flu.  The Golden Knights are facing a Blue Jackets team that has been struggling as they have lost 4 straight games and are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss.  One of the key issues with Columbus is they have struggled in coming back in games this season.  They have won just 5 of their 14 games this season and they are 5-0 when scoring first but have lost all 9 games when they allow the first goal.  As noted above the Golden Knights recent trouble has been closing out games but they have done a good job of attaining leads.  Look for Vegas to draw first blood here and send Columbus to a 10th straight loss when allowing the first goal this season.  While the Blue Jackets overall have lost 9 of 14 games this season, Vegas has won 4 of its 6 road games and the fact they are on the road here is what is keeping this money line in a playable range.  If this game was in Vegas the Golden Knights would be a 2 to 1 favorite.  So we'll take advantage of the line value here and lay the fair price in a situation where all signs are pointing to Vegas bringing a very focused effort here and sustaining it for the full 60 minutes.  Those back to back late game losses on home ice have the Golden Knights ready to fly all over the ice Tuesday!  Vegas also has revenge here as, after splitting with Columbus in the Knights inaugural season, the Blue Jackets swept the two games last season.  Payback time here.  When the Golden Knights enter a match-up after playing 3 consecutive games on home ice, they have won 20 of 29 games!  Per our computer math model, the Blue Jackets get outplayed again tonight and lose for the 6th time in 7 games this season when facing a Western Conference opponent.  Bet Vegas in NHL early evening action Tuesday.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th!  They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back.  They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game.  The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition.  They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston.  They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers.  Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston.  On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well.  On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL.  This team is better than their 3-4 record.  Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense).  Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati.  The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games.  They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG.  That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season.  Oakland wins and covers at home.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337

Perfect set up to back a solid underdog in this one. While Virginia fell just short at Louisville last week, the Tar Heels hung on for a tight win over Duke last week in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals and that factored into their loss. Speaking of turnovers, the Blue Devils threw an INT from the NC 2-yard line with under half a minute to go in the 3 point Heels win. After winning a nail-biter like that in dramatic fashion, the Tar Heels could be a little spent this week. That is why they are such a small favorite here despite being at home and facing a Cavaliers team that has lost 3 straight road games. This line looks like an open invitation to take the home team minus the short number and, of course, you know what that generally leads to - a road dog upset! The Heels were fortunate to escape with the win over Duke last week and they won't be so fortunate here. North Carolina is just 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a favorite. Also, the Cavaliers are looking to make it 3 in a row (both SU and ATS) in meetings with UNC as they have had their number in recent meetings. Virginia has been solid defending the pass this season as they are allowing only 58% completions and 166 passing yards per game. Comparing that to North Carolina (64% completions and 242 passing yards allowed per game) and it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cavs to hold a significant edge over the Heels in the passing game in this one. The Tar Heels were fortunate to hang on against Duke and that tight win was preceded by North Carolina losing 3 of their past 4 games including losing to a Sun Belt Conference team and losing to a Virginia Tech team that is really down this season. 3 of UNC's 4 wins this season have come by a combined total of just 10 points and, again, the Tar Heels already have 4 losses this season too. The Cavaliers had allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games this season. Coming off a disappointing loss where they gave up 28 points, Virginia's defense is poised for a strong bounce back effort here. The Cavs catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot here as they have played back to back brutally tough games. The war with Duke was preceded by a 6-OT loss at Virginia Tech. Look for North Carolina to run out of gas as this game goes on and the Cavaliers pull away down the stretch. Grab the points with Virginia as a road dog in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #373

Both of these teams play with plenty of tempo. The Horned Frogs are averaging about 76 plays on offense per game which ranks them 14th in the nation. The Cowboys are actually in the top ten in the nation as they are averaging 76.5 plays on offense per game. Oklahoma State is also a top twenty team in terms of offensive efficiency this season as they are averaging 6.6 yards per per play on offense. The weather forecast is excellent for Stillwater, OK on Saturday as the winds are projected to be light with no precipitation thanks to clear skies. A pleasant autumn day and both teams will be able to have the playbooks wide open as a result. Each of these teams is entering off a win last week and it is hard to duplicate the same defensive intensity week after week and that is why teams often take a step back on defense after a big win. TCU is off a key win over Texas. The Horned Frogs held the Longhorns to 27 points but note that TCU's two prior games (both on the road) saw them allow an average of 36.5 points per game. The Frogs also allowed 41 points at home against SMU earlier this season. The point is that this Horned Frogs defense is not what it once was and we expect them to have a letdown this week after the big win over UT last week. The over is 4-1 in TCU's last 5 games. After a home win over a ranked foe last week, the Horned Frogs are now back in the underdog role this week. The over is 6-2 the last 8 times TCU has been an underdog. Oklahoma State is 10-2 the last dozen times they have been a home favorite. As of Friday afternoon the dominant number on the side is this game is Cowboys -2.5 and per our computer math model, this is going to be back and forth game so the low number on the side is not a surprise. OSU has had many back and forth shootouts in the past when in situations very similar to this one. That is why it also comes as no surprise that the over is a PERFECT 7-0 the last 7 times Oklahoma State is a home favorite of a field goal or less. This one likely goes down to the wire with both teams struggling on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys defense held Iowa State to 27 points last week but that was thanks to 3 Cyclones interceptions. Give OSU some credit for generating turnovers but the fact is Iowa State actually threw for nearly 400 yards passing! Considering that as well as the fact that both the Horned Frogs and Cowboys have strong rushing attacks, each defense in Saturday's match-up is going to have to respect the run. In turn, that opens up great opportunities through the air to attack downfield. In other words, TCU (just like Iowa State) will be able to move the ball very well here. That was a big road win for OSU last week at Iowa State and, by the way, the over is 8-1 the last 9 times the Cowboys have come into a game off a road win in their prior game. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points in this one. With the total (as of Friday afternoon) having moved down into the upper 50s from a mid 60s opener, this total offers tremendous market value! Bet the OVER in this Saturday afternoon match-up.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks, Monday at 10:05 PM ET

With yesterday's 6-2 win at Edmonton, the over is 7-3-1 in Panthers games this season.  Florida has scored an average of 4.7 goals per game in its past 6 games!  The Canucks are off a high-scoring loss that was just their 2nd defeat in 8 games.  It was no fault of the offensive production as Vancouver stayed hot in terms of finding the back of the net.  With their 5-goal outburst Friday, the Canucks have scored an average of 4 goals per game during this 8-game stretch.  The Panthers are likely to have back-up goalie Sam Montembeault between the pipes for this one.  Though the 22-year old has been solid this season his action has been limited and, of course, there is a reason he is the back-up to Sergei Bobrovsky whom was in the crease last night at Edmonton.  That said, the rested Canucks are likely to get to Montembeault early and often in this match-up.  The over is 41-24, including 4-1 this season, when Florida is off a game in which the Panthers scored 4 or more goals.  The over is 3-1-1 this season when the Canucks are off a non-conference game.  After a tough shootout loss versus Washington, they won't take their foot off the gas against Florida tonight.  Bet the OVER in Vancouver in NHL late night action Monday.

ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love the value here with the Jets.  This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored.  We just don’t see that.  This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5.  In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football.  They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers.  The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses.  We often see teams play much better off games like this.  Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week.  We definitely have that in this game.  Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas.  Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion.  We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game.  They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense).  They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season.  Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position.  Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9.  The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense.  They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that.  He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season.  Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed.  They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points.  QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted.   In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception.  He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games.  In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown.  That’s it.  He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry.  We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win.  Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one.  

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169

Oklahoma State is off what, on the surface, appears to be a blowout loss to Baylor 45-27 last week. However, that game unraveled late for the Cowboys as they were done in by late turnovers. Note that the Bears pulled away late in the game courtesy of some key turnovers. The fact is that Oklahoma State had 27 first downs in the game compared to 18 for Baylor. The point we're making here is that the Cowboys weren't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate in last week's loss and now they're catching double digits against an Iowa State team that comes into this game overvalued. The Cyclones two toughest games this season were hosting Iowa and visiting Baylor. Iowa State lost both games. The Cyclones do have a bye on deck but then face Oklahoma and Texas. Both the Sooners and Longhorns beat Iowa State last season and the loss to the Sooners was the only Big 12 home loss that the Cyclones had all season long. Should the Cyclones lose focus a bit here against a Cowboys team that is 1-3 in Big 12 action (Oklahoma and Texas a combined 7-1 in Big 12 action), Oklahoma State absolutely can make them pay. The Cowboys rank 8th in the nation in total offense this season and Oklahoma State is playing this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cyclones last year. While Iowa State is playing for the 7th consecutive week (and 3 of last 4 have been on the road), the Cowboys had a bye week two weeks ago and will prove to be the fresher team in this match-up. Also, from a motivational standpoint, OSU will bring their A game this week after B2B SU losses by a double digit margin. In fact, this play is also supported by an angle along those lines. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been favored by 19.5 points or less against an opponent off B2B SU losses including the most recent defeat coming by a double digit margin. The Cowboys will be ready Saturday and have the offense to stay within a score throughout this conference clash. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma State as a sizable road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Calgary Flames over Florida Panthers, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET

This is a tough spot for Florida as they were at home on Tuesday and got a big home win over Pittsburgh. Not only is beating the Penguins always a big victory for a team like the Panthers, having to then go from southern Florida all the way to western Canada is certainly a long haul. This first road game puts the Panthers in a true flat spot. Calgary, on the other hand, was already at home as they hosted the Capitals on Tuesday. Unlike Florida, the Flames lost that game on Tuesday. That said, Calgary will be hungry to get right back on track here and remaining on home ice is a big edge for them. The Panthers history against Western Conference foes is certainly not a good one as they have lost 254 of 418 games against teams from the west. Florida won their most recent meeting with Calgary but that makes this a revenge spot and the Flames had won 5 of the last 6 in this series prior to that loss. After losing 5-3 to Washington Tuesday, Calgary is likely to bounce back here. The Flames, after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game, are 3-1 this season. Per our computer math model, that record improves to 4-1 tonight! Bet Calgary in NHL late night action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER:  SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #103

The Mustangs are off a huge 45-21 win versus Temple last week that saw SMU amass 34 first downs and over 650 yards of offense.  That game went over the total and the over is now a perfect 7-0 in Mustangs games on the season!  SMU averages 85.43 plays per game on offense and that is the #1 fastest pace in the nation!  The Mustangs will take advantage of a Houston defense that ranks as one of the worst in the nation in terms of defensive efficiency as Houston allows 6.76 yards per play this season which ranks them 124th out of FBS schools!  It should be a big day for the SMU offense here but don't be surprised if the Cougars offense also puts up a ton of points here.  They are a stronger unit when they are home and the Houston production at UConn was also hurt because, already without QB King, they lost QB Tune to injury.  However, after being down to their 3rd string QB against the Huskies, the Cougars QB Tune is expected back this week and has been upgraded to probable on the injury report.  Houston is averaging 31 points per game this season and the Mustangs are favored by 14 points here.  If the Cougars hit their average, which they certainly should at home, and the odds makers are correct about the line on SMU here it puts this game in the mid-70s.  With the total in the mid-60s on this game that is why we won't hesitate to step in.  Not only is the over 7-0 in SMU games this season, the over is 3-0 in the Cougars L3 games in which they are a dog.  Double perfect systems in play here.  Bet the OVER in Houston in this Thursday early evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Maple Leafs were in action last night (a 4-3 home loss in OT versus Columbus). Toronto used their #1 goalie, Frederik Andersen, last night which means the back-up Michael Hutchinson will be between the pipes tonight at Boston. That is a key factor here as he had a 3.64 GAA and .859 save percentage in his limited road action last season and Hutchinson also is off to an overall slow start this season. In his 2 starts this season Hutchinson has allowed 9 goals! He is sure to be tested early and often in this one as the division rival Bruins seek revenge for a 4-3 OT loss at Toronto on Saturday. The over is now 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, with yesterday's high scoring loss in the books, the over is now 6-0 in the Maple Leafs last 6 games against Eastern Conference foes. The Bruins enter this game with a record of 5-1 to the over in their past 6 games. Tuuka Rask is expected to get the start for Boston in this one and he is 2-4 in recent seasons in his starts against the Maple Leafs. Toronto will be hungry to put pressure after they feel like they let last night's game get away from them late. With the Bruins playing with revenge and knowing Hutchinson is between the pipes for the Leafs, they will also be aggressive about keeping pressure on and getting plenty of pucks on net. As a result, and per our computer match model, this one gets to 7 goals or more. Bet the OVER in Boston in NHL action Tuesday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion.  Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points.  Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona.  All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play.  The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field.  Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week.  Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards.  Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle).  The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40).  The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL).  Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance.  Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore.  They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year).  They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game.  Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.  We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372

Washington State is coming in extra hungry for a win off 3 consecutive losses. Last week they led Arizona State on the road late and the Devils picked up a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to get the 38-34 win. Their game prior to that was a loss @ Utah and a flat spot coming off an embarrassing home loss. Speaking of their most recent home game it was a full month ago and it was an embarrassment as we said with the Cougars blowing a 49-17 lead in a 67-64 loss to UCLA. Now back at home for the first time since blowing that massive lead, you can bet WSU won’t hold back here. No lead is too safe will be their outlook. This is a bad spot for Colorado playing their 2nd of back to back road game after getting destroyed 45-3 @ Oregon last week. It’s not only a bad situation but a terrible match up for the Buffs. The Colorado defense is one of the worst in the nation at defending the pass and WSU QB Anthony Gordon can wing it with the best of them. The Buff defense currently ranks 123rd nationally in total defense (out of 130), 118th in pass efficiency defense, and 124th in passing yards allowed. Those terrible numbers INCLUDE a game vs Air Force who rarely passes and still threw for 155 yards on CU. On Saturday they face a Washington State passing offense that ranks #1 nationally lighting it up for 453 YPG through the air. Their QB Gordon is completing 71% of his passes and has 25 TD’s and just 6 interceptions on the year. The CU defense has allowed 30 or more points in EVERY game this season and they will not stop this Cougar offense that will be on a mission in this game. We expect upper 40’s to 50+ from WSU in this game. The Colorado offense is reeling a bit after scoring only 3 points last week @ Oregon and we don’t expect them to be able to keep up in this game. WSU has dominated the last 2 games in this series (one on the road and one at home) winning 31-7 last year and 28-0 the previous year with a combined yardage edge of +412. These two both have 3-3 record but there is a reason State is favored by almost 2 TD’s. They have a +1.2 YPP margin on the year while Colorado has a -1.1 YPP margin. Washington State is better than their record and CU should not be a .500 team. Lay it in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #312

Syracuse if off a 16-10 loss last week.  In that game, the struggles of the offensive line of the Orange continued as they allowed 8 sacks at NC State.  The offensive line has been an issue all season long for Syracuse and that is bad news this week as they face a tough Panthers defense.  Pittsburgh's defense ranks as one of the best in the nation for generating qb pressure and sacks.  That gives the Pitt D a big edge over the struggling offense of the Orange.  Of course Syracuse has taken a big step back this season after losing their star QB from last year as Eric Dungey graduated.  The Orange are known for being a tough team to play at the Carrier Dome but it will be the defense that is the story in this game. For Syracuse to get the upset win it will take a strong effort from the D.  The defense for Syracuse has struggled against the run this season but has been solid against the pass and Pittsburgh likes to throw a lot.  Last week's Panthers game went over the total but 4 of their 5 prior games this season had resulted in an under.  The Orange have been held to 24 points or less in 4 of their 6 games this season.  Syracuse had ugly games defensively versus Maryland and Clemson.  However, in their other 4 games the Orange allowed an average of only 13 points per game.  Both teams play at a rather quick pace on offense but they simply do not produce much in the way of big plays and points.  Considering the Orange D will bring their "A game" in a winnable home game but their O-line has continued to have problems and is facing a tough Panthers D, points will absolutely be at a premium in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Syracuse in this Friday early evening match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate.  The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense.  Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game.  Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win.  Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP.  The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth.  After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games.  Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye.  They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in.  The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles.  They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again.  All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Rams.  They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday.  It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday.  Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home.  The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night.  So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion.  The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15.  Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG?  We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season?  The value and situation absolutely favor LA here.  In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times.  Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times.  San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower.  The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.  This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff.  Now to the LA defense.  After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points.  However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced.  They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced.  We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances.  We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses.  This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public.  This team is simply not very good.  Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins.  The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.  The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT.  Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season.  The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less.  They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively.  Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore?  The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here.  Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football.  Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk.  Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite.  Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals.  The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10.  This one should be close.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128

We love taking the defensive home underdog in this game.  Temple’s defense ranks 20th nationally in total defense.  They have held 4 of their 5 opponents to 17 points or less.  The Owls are 4-1 on the season and they have outgained every opponent yet they are getting nearly a TD at home in this game.  Memphis is undefeated and has a potent offense, however they have played a plethora of poor defenses this year.  In fact, they have played only ONE defense this season ranked higher than 73rd and that was Navy.  In that game Memphis was held to just 301 total yards and that game was in Memphis.  The Tigers were down 20-7 in the 2nd quarter but a 99 yard kickoff return turned the game around and Memphis got the win.  We expect their offense will struggle on Saturday.  The Tigers have actually been outgained in each of their last 2 games including last week @ UL Monroe.  In their win last week, the Tigers also had fewer first downs and faced a ULM defense ranked 126th nationally.  Now they turn around on the road again and face a top 20 defense.  That’s a tall task for a team that we feel comes in drastically overvalued.  Temple’s offense is averaging a very solid 445 YPG while allowing only 292 YPG and they have a +1.7 YPP differential.  ULM’s offense rolled up nearly 600 yards last week on the Memphis D so we expect the Owls to have plenty of success on that side of the ball.  Add that to a defense that can absolutely slow down Memphis and we have an upset brewing.  Temple was a home dog once already this year and they beat Maryland outright in that game.  In fact, the last 7 times the Owls have been a home dog of 12 points or less, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS.  As a home dog in general, Temple has covered 12 of their last 15.  Situationally this game also favors the host as Temple played on Thursday so 10 days to prepare while Memphis on the road for their 2nd straight game after playing @ Louisiana Monroe last Saturday.  We think Temple has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:37 PM ET

It is hard to fathom any scenario that involves many runs being scored in this match-up.  Game 5 first round post-season elimination game, all bullpen arms rested and at the ready thanks to yesterday's off day, and a pair of dominating starting pitchers on the mound.  The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg and he has an incredible 0.64 ERA in his 5 post-season appearances (4 starts) in his career.  The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler and he has not allowed an earned run in his last 16 and 2 / 3 innings of post-season work.  Buehler has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 career post-season starts.  Strasburg has held opponents to just 11 hits in 23 innings spanning his last 4 post-season appearances (3 starts).  The under has cashed in 7 of the Nationals last 9 playoff games and, per our computer math model, that trend continues on Wednesday.  We look for the under to improve to a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times that the Dodgers were in a playoff game facing elimination.  Pitchers duel expected here!  Bet the UNDER in LA Dodgers in evening action Wednesday

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Big total posted on this game makes perfect sense as the Jets have allowed 14 goals in just 3 games this season. The Jets highly skilled offense was shut down by the stifling style of the Islanders on Sunday but Winnipeg had scored 4 goals in regulation of each of their first two games and they'll be putting plenty of pressure on the Penguins early and often in this contest. The last game between these teams stayed under the total but the over was on a 4-1 run in Pens/Jets match-ups entering that game. The Jets have allowed 4 or more goals to the Penguins in 4 of their last 6 meetings. Pittsburgh will be playing their first game after losing Evgeni Malkin to injury. This is the type of situation where you see teammates step up huge and the Jets defense has looked very young and very soft early this season! The Penguins will take advantage of a Winnipeg club that has allowed at least 4 goals in all 3 of their games. We like the fact that Jets coach Paul Maurice put Laine back on the top line with Scheifele and Wheeler during Winnipeg's loss to the Islanders. Now Ehlers is switched up and on a line with Connor and that 1-2 speed punch provides challenges for opponents on that line as well. Winnipeg will have a strong game in the offensive zone tonight but their own defense and netminding continues to be functioning like a sieve. The result is each team is likely to get to at least 3 goals tonight and that means this game gets to 4-3 at the very least and 7 goals cashes this ticket. Per our computer math model the actual expectation here is 8 or 9 goals total. The Penguins over is 44-27 after a game in which they scored 4 or more goals. They tallied 7 times against the Blue Jackets Saturday and stay hot in the offensive zone in this game against a young and struggling Jets defensive corps. Winnipeg answers the Penguins goal for goal. Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in NHL action Tuesday.

ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET  - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced.  The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line looks fishy to us.  The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points?  Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher?  A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5.  The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year.  Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one.  We actually like this Denver team.  They are much better than their 0-4 record.  They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville.  They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers.  We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers.  They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins.  Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP.  If not for that, the Colts win that game.  Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play.  While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP.  LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday.  The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host.  This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here.  The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover.