ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-145) Prediction In Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in a matchup primed for a low-scoring affair. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been a brick wall at home this season, posting an exceptional 27-3-3 record, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts. His dominance was evident in the regular-season series with the Blues, where the Jets won 3-1, including a 3-1 victory at home on April 7, with Hellebuyck allowing just one goal. St. Louis counters with Jordan Binnington, who has been solid with a 28-22-5 record, 2.69 GAA, and .900 SV% this season. Binnington has shown recent form, allowing three or fewer goals in three of his last five starts and one or fewer in five of his last eight. However, the Blues’ offense may be hampered, as leading scorer Robert Thomas (81 points, 21 goals, 60 assists) is questionable after an injury in the regular-season finale. Without Thomas, St. Louis, already averaging just 2.70 goals per game, could struggle against Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending. Winnipeg’s top-ranked defense (2.39 GAA) and the Blues’ improved penalty kill since the 4-Nations break further support a tight, defensive game. With both teams likely to play cautiously in this playoff opener, expect a goaltending duel that keeps the scoreline low.

German Bundesliga #202593/202594 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+105) – Heidenheim vs Bayern Munich, Saturday at 9:30 AM ET -Bayern Munich not happy at all about their exit from the Champions League and now their full focus turns to Bundesliga action. That is concerning for a Heidenheim side that won't able to hold off relentless attacking from the visitors here. Bayern Munich, however, has been allowing more goals than usual of late and with Heidenheim also hosting this one they are likely to do some damage on the attack as well. Bayern Munich has allowed 1.8 goals per game in their last five. They also have scored about 3 goals per game in Bundesliga action this season. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled 26 goals with none of the four finishing with less than 5 goals scored. Look for another wide-open high-scoring thriller here in this one as well. We will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 pm ET - Dallas is coming off an unexpected great shooting night in Sacramento hitting 49% overall and 50% from Deep, coasting to 120-points and the win. Obviously didn’t see that coming. The 120 they scored could have been much more, but they took their foot off the gas late and we don’t see them having that option here. More to come. Memphis basically fumbled their game away against the Warriors the other night which finished with 237 total points. Memphis shot 49% overall and 46% from beyond the arc against an outstanding Warriors defense. Now they face a Dallas D that was 20th in Defensive Efficiency this season. Memphis’ league-leading pace of 103.1 possessions per game, paired with Dallas’ respectable 99.2 (14th), sets the stage for a fast-paced, high-possession game. Historically, these teams have combined for some higher scoring games with six straight meetings of 223 or more points, including 229 in their April 13 regular season finale when the Over/Under was 228.5—eight points higher than tonight’s game. Memphis’ potent offense (121.6 points per game, 3rd in efficiency) and shaky defense (15th) coupled with Dallas’ scoring (114.4 points) and defensive lapses (115.2 allowed) make for a high scoring game. Dallas owned a 28-14-1 Over record on the road this season and have gone Over in 15 of their last 20 games. Memphis has gone Over in 56.6% of their games this season, including 3 of their last 4.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins – 7pm ET - The Capitals (51-21-9) and Penguins (33-36-12) clash tonight in a high-scoring rivalry. Washington’s elite offense (3.67 GPG, 6th) faces Pittsburgh’s weak defense (3.52 GA/G, 30th). Their February 22, game ended 8-3, clearing 6 goals easily. The Capitals average 3.51 GPG, 2nd most in the NHL; Penguins 2.93 GPG which ranks 20th. Pittsburgh allows 3+ goals in 8 of the last 14 games overall and 4+ goals in six of those games; Washington’s is 9th in GA/GP at 2.77 but will rest some key defensemen heading into the playoffs. The last time these two teams met they produced 11-goals and one of the two teams involved in this series has scored 4 or more goals in 8 straight meetings. Washington’s 26.8% PP (4th) and Pittsburgh’s 25.6% PP (6th) exploit penalties (PIT: 557 PIM, 4th). The Over is 6-3-1in Washington’s last 10 and 8-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 home games. In net for the Penguins tonight will be Tristan Jarry who has a 3.12 GAA and .892 SV%. Jarry has allowed 4+ goals in 4 of his last six starts and his last two outings. Washington counters with goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a 2.72 GAA and .894 SV% on the season. Lindgren has given up 3 or more goals in 3 of his last four starts.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -113 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - We are on the Bulls here at home over the pretender Heat. Despite Miami’s slightly better season-long efficiency differential, the Bulls have been the superior team since early March, posting a 14-5 straight-up (SU) record since March 6, including two convincing wins over Miami. Eight of Chicago’s last 14 victories came against current playoff teams, which shows the level of play this team is currently at. In contrast, Miami has struggled, going 8-14 SU since March 5, with only three wins against playoff-bound teams. Over the last 15 games, both teams have comparable offensive and defensive net ratings, but Chicago has faced a significantly tougher schedule, adding weight to their performance. The Bulls are 5-1 SU in their last six home games, winning by an average margin of +10.5 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, has a subpar 17-23 SU road record this season, with an average loss margin of -0.8 points per game. A key factor is Miami’s reliance on three-point shooting, which faces a stiff challenge against Chicago’s elite perimeter defense, ranked second in the NBA, allowing just 34.4% from beyond the arc. Given the Bulls’ recent dominance, home-court advantage, and defensive matchup, backing Chicago is the way to go in this Play-in game.

ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -110 vs. Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET - Montreal, fighting to clinch the Eastern Conference’s second wild card spot, faces a Carolina team that’s locked up second in the Metropolitan Division and may rest key players. The Canes will call up several players from their American Hockey League affiliate the Chicago Wolves to get key contributors rest heading into the postseason. The Canadiens are 14-11 since February, 22nd with a strong 4-1 home record in their most recent 5 games on home ice. Montreal is led by goaltender Sam Montembeault (5-1-1 last 7 starts with a 2.12 GAA and .921 SV%) who is 1-1 against the Canes this season. Montreal’s top line of Suzuki and Caufield should have plenty of opportunities in this one which spells trouble for Canes goalie Kochetkov. Kochetkov has allowed at least 3 goals in six straight starts with a 2-4 record, 4.06 GAA and .830 SV%. Montreal’s desperation makes them the clear choice. Montreal is 2 points away from clinching a playoff berth. Carolina: 1-4-1 in their last 6 games, 0-3-1 in last 4 road games.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - 7 straight Rays games have reached at least the 9-run mark.  Yesterday Boston won 7-4 but the Rays took the first game of this series by a 16-1 final.  The Rays bullpen ERA ranks 17th in the majors and the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks 20th out of the 30 teams.  The Rays batting average ranks 1st in the AL this season and Boston is a solid 4th out of the 15 AL teams!  Tampa Bay had won 4 of 6 previous to yesterday's loss and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games.  Boston has been a little more up and down at the plate recently but yesterday's game is a good sign for them and tonight they take advantage of facing Zack Littell.  His first start was against a Rockies team that can not hit on the road and he had success of course here in Tampa against them.  However, Littell has since allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings plus he just allowed 4 home runs in 4 innings here in Tampa Bay.  As for Red Sox starter Sean Newcombe, he has been shaky to say the least thus far.  He has struggled in his 3 starts this season and in particular the road has not been kind to him.  Newcombe allowed 10 runs (6 earned) in only 8 innings in his two road starts. . This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

UEFA Champions League: #224225/224226 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 3 Goals (-120) in Real Madrid vs Arsenal, Wednesday at 3 pm ET – Arsenal already has a 3-0 lead based on the first leg result and they will look to take a very defensive approach here and stifle any hopes of a big comeback for Real Madrid. Arsenal is very capable at the back and we can expect they will frustrate Real Madrid throughout this match. Arsenal need not worry about scoring with the huge lead they already have here. Arsenal has a allowed a total of only 3 goals last 5 games. Real Madrid will be looking to build off 1-0 win in La Liga action and we feel Arsenal will be sitting back in this one so Real Madrid will not face much in the way of attacking. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling only 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one.

ASA NHL play on Seattle Kraken +104 vs. LA Kings, 10:37pm ET - Seattle hosts the Kings tonight, and we like the Kraken to win at home. Los Angeles, locked into their playoff spot after beating Edmonton last night, may rest players in this back-to-back. The Kings are 20-21-3 on the road, scoring 2.95 goals per game while allowing 2.89. Seattle, out of the playoffs, is 22-17-4 at home, averaging 3.12 goals per game and conceding 3.05. Joey Daccord (2.69 GAA, .909 SV%) gives the Kraken an edge over David Rittich (2.71 GAA, .890 SV%). Seattle’s motivated for their home finale.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

UEFA Champions League: #224221/224222 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-110) – Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), Tuesday at 3 ET - Aston Villa is at home and down 3-1 based on last week's result at PSG. The only choice for Aston Villa here is to be very aggressive. This will, of course, open up opportunities for PSG to get scoring opportunities on the counter-attack as well. We just don't see Aston Villa backing down at home and that has us convinced this one will see plenty of goals as they look to make up the 2-goal deficit in this big battle Tuesday at Villa Park. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 4 to 5 goals here and we will take the over in this one.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 1-8 on the road this season including 7 straight road losses all by 2 or more runs!  Colorado has been outscored by a combined 36 to 7 in those 7 road defeats!  The Rockies are known for being bad on the road year in and year out and this season has started no differently.  Senzatela starts for Colorado here and he has miraculously allowed 0 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 10 innings over his 2 road starts this season!  The Dodgers are likely to pound the very hittable Senzatela and this time there is a big breakthrough in terms of runs scored.  Los Angeles is in the perfect bounce back spot after B2B losses to the Cubs to end that series including a very ugly defeat Saturday.  The Dodgers will be dialed in and focused here as they look to stop the bleeding.  Dustin May gets the start here and he has a .201 BAA in his career and, unlike Senzatela, he has been tough to hit this season.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for Colorado as the Dodgers hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one!

#906 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -151 over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Not only do the Padres have the best record in baseball, San Diego is a perfect 10-0 at home this season!  While the Cubs are off to a strong start this season as well, it is hard to argue with a perfect 10-0 record and we like the pitching edge here too.  While Cease shows a high ERA this season, this was impacted by a bad start on the road.  In his home starts he has been solid and he did have a 3.03 ERA here in San Diego starts last season.  The Cubs Taillon has a 6.97 ERA in his two road starts this season and his road ERA last season was about 2.5 runs higher than what he produced at home last year.  The Padres bullpen ERA ranks 1st in the majors this season while the Cubs bullpen ERA ranks 21st out of 30 teams.  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Monday!

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Goals Utah Hockey Club at Nashville Predators, 8pm ET - The Utah Hockey Club vs. Nashville Predators game at Delta Center is primed to go over 6 goals (-110 odds). Utah allows 3.0 goals per game (17th in the NHL), while Nashville’s defense is leakier, conceding 3.3 goals per game (26th). Both teams rank in the top half for shots on goal, with Utah averaging 32.4 (8th) and Nashville at 31.1 (12th), ensuring plenty of scoring chances. Last week’s meeting saw a 4-3 Nashville win with a whopping 73 combined shots, highlighting their offensive tempo. Utah has been relentless lately, firing 34, 42, and 41 shots in their last three games, while Nashville hit 30+ shots in three straight before a 17-shot effort against Vegas. Goaltending adds fuel to the over. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (2.52 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid on the season, but has allowed 3 goals in three of his last 5 starts. Nashville’s Juuse Saros (2.96 GAA, .895 SV%, 46th in the league) struggles to stop pucks, with 15 goals allowed over his last four games. Both teams’ power plays rank in the top 17 (Utah 24.1%, Nashville 21.7%), and their penalty kills have been below average lately, suggesting special teams could contribute. With fast-paced play and defensive gaps, expect a high-scoring affair.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

English Premier League #200121/200122 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-125) – Wolverhampton vs Tottenham, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Tottenham has another huge match on deck in Europa League so they could rest some guys here. However, fresh legs coming in for the Hotspur might not be such a bad thing considering their recent struggles to finish off scoring chances. So don't be surprised if Tottenham actually sees a boost with some regulars resting some here. As for the Wolves, they are sure to get a boost with the return of Cunha from his suspension. Overall, Wolverhampton has scored at least 1 goal in 10 straight matches and averaged 1.4 goals scored during this stretch. 21 of Wolves last 28 games in EPL have totaled at least 3 goals. 3 straight meetings between these two teams have reached at least the 3 goal mark and all signs point to this making it 4 in a row.
We will take the over in this one.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - Of the 14 games that were played yesterday, only one saw both teams reach double digits in hits.  It was this one featuring the Twins and Tigers and we expect another big day at the plate for both teams similar to yesterday's 7-6 Tigers win.  Detroit should have no trouble with the struggling Chris Paddack as he has been rocked in both starts this season.  Tigers starter Jackson Jobe is making just the 3rd start of his young MLB career.  He struggled with the long ball in spring training and that has carried right into the regular season as well plus he has struggled overall in both starts.  The Twins have scored at least 6 runs in each of their last 3 home games.  The Tigers have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games and they stay hot at the plate here.  Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#200133/200134 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-142) – Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Goals likely tough to come by. Everton and Nottingham Forest have been two of the top defensive clubs in the league. 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled only 2 goals. Everton enters this one on a run of 5 straight games totaling 2 or less goals. Nottingham Forest off a 2-1 loss but their 6 games (Premier League and other competitions) featured 5 unders totaling 2 or less goals. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

German Bundesliga #202545/202546 ASA PLAY ON Under 3 Goals (-135) –Wolfsburg vs Leipzig, Friday at 2:30 ET - Goals likely tough to come by. Wolfsburg consistently struggles to score but has done a great job of limiting opposition scoring chances as well. Leipzig known for struggling on the road so the set-up here is ideal. 8 of last 10 Wolfsburg matches have totaled 2 or less goals and none of the 10 topped the 3-goal mark. Leipzig scored only 1 goal in most recent road game and this followed being shutout 5 straight times on the road. All 5 of those matches either totaled only 1 goal or were scoreless draws. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -1.5 -125 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 10pm ET - We like the Kings to smack the Ducks by at least two goals (-1.5 spread) on Thursday night. Kuemper’s been a beast in net, rocking a 1.40 GAA and .940 save percentage since March, and he’s kept every game tight—two or fewer goals allowed in his last 14 starts. Dostal’s been decent for Anaheim, but his 3.52 GAA and .885 save percentage over his last six games don’t bode well, especially with the Ducks’ shaky D giving up over 31 shots a night. Plus, LA’s owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10. The Kings have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey with a 29-5-4 record and 3 of their last four games have been decided by multiple goals. With Anaheim off a game last night (1-4 last 5 without rest) it's going to be tough to get back up for this California showdown. The Kings did lose the last meeting (in the shootout) 2-1 in early February. Perfect spot for Revenge!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228 NY Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This game should have a playoff like atmosphere with two teams that sit 3rd (Knicks) and 6th (Pistons) in the Eastern Conference. If the playoffs started today, this would be the first round matchup. Detroit has consistently been one of the top 10 Defensive Efficiency teams in the NBA all season long, currently allowing 1.125-points per possession, 9th best number in the league. New York hasn’t been as good defensively this season ranking 13th in DEFF but in their last five games they’ve been significantly better allowing just 1.096ppp. This game features contrasting styles of play as the Piston rank 7th in pace of play, the Knicks though are 26th. The Pistons offense has stalled in recent games with 104 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Detroit’s Offensive Efficiency in that 5-game stretch I 19th in the NBA. The Knicks are trying to jell with the return of Brunson and have had some offensive struggles with 112 or less points in 4 of their last six games. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in EFG% in their last five games with the Knicks 15th, the Pistons are dead-last or 30th.

#911 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +105 over Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 4:10 PM ET - The Blue Jays have won all 3 games in this series and many might simply back the Red Sox here based on avoiding the series sweep but the reality is this Boston team is ice cold and plus they are at a significant pitching disadvantage here. The Red Sox Walker Buehler has been hit hard in both starts and allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his two outings this season.  The Blue Jays Chris Bassitt had a strong spring training with some command issues on his pitches but yet allowing only 4 earned runs total in his 5 outings while holding hitters to a .143 batting average. He has carried that strong form right into the regular season.  Bassitt has allowed only 1 earned run while striking out 16 in 12 and 2/3 innings in his first two starts this season plus the good news too is that he walked only 2 batters.  The Blue Jays lineup should give solid run support and the Jays have now won 7 of 10.  The Red Sox have lost 7 of 12 and have scored a total of only 4 runs so far in this series plus began this season averaging only 3 runs scored per game in the first 6 games.  The point is that hitting slumps have been a common theme for Boston this season and it won't get any easier today against Bassitt and a Blue Jays bullpen that has held them in check throughout this series.  We are going with the money line at a great value in this one and we project a solid road win Thursday!

UEFA Europa League: #224401/224402 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-115) – Bodo/Glimt vs Lazio, Thursday at 12:45 ET - Bodo/Glimt is one of the strongest clubs in the Norwegian Eliteserien and their league runs from March to November so they are underway again and coming off a 3-0 victory. Bodo/Glimt has averaged scoring 3 goals in their last 6 at home and they will surely push the pace here. While Lazio is known for lower-scoring matches, the Italian Serie A club knows they will have to be more aggressive on the attack here to keep up with Bodo in Norway. Lazio has been shutout once in seven matches since the start of March but has scored 1.3 goals per match in the other six contests and Bodo not known for strong defensive play. Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 2-1 or 2-2 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -138 vs. St Louis Blues, 10 pm ET - The Edmonton Oilers come in as -125 favorites against the St. Louis Blues, and I’m leaning strong toward them in this one. The Blues just saw their impressive 12-game winning streak come to an end, which might leave them a bit off-balance, especially facing an Oilers team that’s already defeated them twice this season. Edmonton’s starting goalie, Calvin Pickard, has been sharp lately with a 2.0 GAA over his last 10 starts and a 5-2 record in his past seven decisions. The Oilers are also 20-8 when he’s in net, showing his reliability. On the other side, Jordan Binnington has been solid for St. Louis with a 2.2 GAA in his last 10 starts, but his most recent outing—where he gave up 4 goals—raises some concerns about his form heading into this game. With the Blues off that loss that snapped the long winning streak and Edmonton’s offensive firepower plus prior success against the Blues ... with consideration to all those factors it gives the Oilers the massive edge here. I will go with the Oilers money line to get this clutch win on home ice.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

UEFA Champions League: #224213/224214 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-135) – Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa, Wednesday at 3 ET - Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) is off a 1-0 win in French Ligue 1 action but PSG averaged scoring 4.3 goals in their other 3 contests dating back to mid-March. On the season in league action PSG is still undefeated with 23 wins and 5 draws in their 28 contests on the campaign! The average score of their French Ligue 1 matches is 3-1 and one can expect the goals to fly in this one in Champions League action as well. Aston Villa will look to take advantage of center-back Marquinhos being suspended for PSG for this one. He is not only a defender but the captain of the team! Aston Villa comes into this one rolling with confidence with 7 straight victories and scoring an average of 2.4 goals in the 7-game win streak. This is the 1st Leg of 2 and we expect PSG to be quite aggressive on the attack at home and Aston Villa will respond in kind in what sets up to be a very entertaining opener. The availability of 3 in the marketplace at big books is a key to the value here in this one as well as 3 would be a return of our wager here.
Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 3-2 or 2-2 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - This total has dropped from its opener and yes it will be chilly in Pittsburgh today but not brutal.  Fedde starts for the Cardinal here and he is coming off his first road start of the season and it was a disaster.  Last season his ERA was more than 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home and we expect this pattern to continue here.  Fedde has a 4.85 ERA in his career and is not showing any signs of turning things around.  Keller starts for the Pirates here and he just got rocked by the Yankees here in Pittsburgh.  Keller had a 5.00 ERA in his 3 starts versus Cardinals last season and allowed 5 homers in the 3 outings.  Both bullpens struggling early this season too. Our computer math model projecting 9 to 10 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

ASA play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:30pm ET - The betting markets are indicating the Knicks are the side to be on tonight with more money and tickets being bet on Boston, yet the line has moved from them being favored to the underdog. The Celtics have nothing to play for down the stretch with the #2 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. Getting everyone healthy is the number one priority for the C’s as they look to win back-to-back Championships. Both teams are 4-1 in their last five games with Boston has a slight advantage in Net rating at +11.9 compared to the Knicks at +9.0. Boston typically enjoys a huge advantage over their opponents with their 3-point shooting (1st in 3PM) but the Knicks allow the 10th fewest made 3PT’ers. The Knicks are the 4th best shooting team in the league at 48.8% and hit 37% of their 3-pointers (8th) so the Celtics can’t outgun them in a shootout. With the line movement on this game we are betting Boston is sitting some starters. Back the Knicks at home.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - This should be a pitchers duel in this early season division rivalry battle.  Chris Sale has a deceiving ERA early this season as he has certainly pitched better than his 5.40 ERA would lead you to believe.  Also, this is his first home start of 2025 and last season he went 10-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his 14 home starts!  Yes, 10-0!  He'll be opposed by Zach Wheeler who is already dominating again this season.  Wheeler has gone 42-20 since the start of the 2022 season and has been dominant since coming to the Phillies.  This season has been fantastic with only 5 hits allowed while striking out 18 in 13 innings over his first two starts!  Wheeler also has allowed just 3 earned runs total in his last 3 starts versus the Braves!  Both bullpens had slow starts earlier this season but both are rounding into form.  That is another reason to be careful looking at early season numbers.  Both these bullpens are expected to be solid and both are showing that after a shaky early season beginning.  The Phillies are off a wild 8-7 win over the Dodgers Sunday but this followed Philadelphia allowing only 8 runs in a strong 5-game stretch preceding that high-scoring win.  The Braves have allowed 3.4 runs per game the last 7 games and also the Atlanta lineup has mostly struggled this season.  Other than a 10-0 win, Atlanta has scored only 1.8 runs per game in their other 8 games!  The Phillies were averaging 3 runs per game over a 6-game stretch prior to that surprising blowout on Sunday.  Another factor we like here is the fact that early season timing for hitters is crucial as it takes awhile to get into mid-season form! Not only were both teams off Monday, the Braves game Sunday was also rained out! Facing Wheeler and Sale after time off is not fun for any team.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#224205 ASA PLAY ON Real Madrid +0.50 (-125) at Arsenal, Tuesday at 3 PM ET - Arsenal seems a bit over-valued here just because they are at home. They are missing some key players here and that makes this spot even better for Real Madrid. We were already looking the way of the visitors in this 1st Leg battle as Real Madrid is off a loss. They lost 2 to 1 at home versus Valencia in La Liga action and could have been guilty of looking ahead to this big Champions League battle. Real Madrid has scored 10 goals in last 4 games. Arsenal has scored only 7 goals in last 5 games. This means even more value with the +0.5 goal at a very fair price here. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Real Madrid on the goal line in this one.

#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets (-159) vs. St. Louis Blues - The Blues are riding a crazy 12-game win streak, but I’m calling it—they’re hitting a wall tonight. They’re missing their stud young forward Dylan Holloway, who’s been lighting it up with 26 goals and 37 assists, and their top defenseman Colton Parayko, who’s got 35 points, is also sidelined. Their goalie Binnington’s been solid lately, but Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck? He’s on another level—25-3-3 at home with a ridiculous 1.67 goals-against average. The Jets already beat the Blues twice this season (2-1), and they’re a beast at home with a 28-6-4 record. Plus, they’re gunning for the Central Division crown and maybe even the Presidents’ Trophy. I’m betting the Jets cash this one out tonight.

#200109/200110 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-140) – Leicester vs Newcastle, Monday at 3 ET - Leicester has not been scoring goals recently but it has been strange as they did score 11 goals in their first 8 matches at home this season in Premier League games. We expect them to get back on track here at home and score a goal but defensively they have virtually no shot at stopping Newcastle. The visitors have scored an average of 2 goals in their last 8 meetings with Leicester. Also, Newcastle has scored 5 goals in last 3 games overall. They are a large favorite here and should stay hot but we also expect Leicester to finally get back into the goal-scoring column on their home pitch in what has been a disappointing campaign as relegation a virtual certainty now. Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 3-1 or 2-1 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +9.5 at NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - The Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation here as they are coming off a game in Atlanta yesterday and have a HUGE game on deck against the Celtics. New York is basically locked into the 3 seed in the East barring a disastrous finish by them and a miraculous one by the Pacers. Phoenix on the other hand is in full-blown desperation time right now sitting 11th in West, two games behind the Kings. New York has been terrible this season when playing without rest with a 2-11 ATS record. Largely due to coach Thibs short rotation which he has been rightly criticized for in the past. The Knicks have a negative differential of minus -5.5ppg when playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 19-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus +7.1ppg. The Suns have lost 5 straight games but two of those came against the Celtics, one versus the Bucks and one each to Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix is the 8th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48% and rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%. The Knicks defense isn’t what it used to be, ranking 23rd in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% D. Granted, the Suns defensive numbers look eerily similar to the Knicks as does New York’s offense compared to the Suns, but there isn’t a big enough discrepancy to lay nearly double-digits. Phoenix is 12-27 SU away this season but their average MOV in those games is -5.5ppg which clearly gets us a cover.

ASA play on UNDER 245.5 Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks, 6:10pm ET - This number opened south of 240 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 244. We love the extra value and will be UNDER the total. Sure, Atlanta is playing for a better seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are also locked into the postseason. They have a MUCH bigger game on deck with Orlando who sits a game and a half ahead of them in the 7th seed. The Hawks will obviously play to win, but do they need a blowout to do so, or will they expand their rotation to keep starters fresh? We expect the latter. Atlanta is coming off a game yesterday against the Knicks and when playing without rest this season they are 6-9 UNDER with those games stayed below the number by an average of nearly 10ppg. On the season the Hawks rank 3rd in pace of play at 102.7 but in their last 5 games they have slowed to 100.2 which ranks 8th. Atlanta is below average in Offensive Efficiency ranking 19th at 1.141-points per possession and average or below in shooting overall. The Hawks are near league average in Defensive Efficiency, but let’s face it the Jazz can’t take advantage with the 24th ranked OEFF and a team that averages just 111.4ppg. Utah is in full tank-mode as they are trying desperately to land the #1 pick in the draft and Cooper Flagg of Duke. They have scored 106 or less in 7 of their last ten games. Granted, they have given up some huge numbers defensively in recent weeks, but again, the Hawks are unrested, have a big game on deck and no motivation to put up 140 in this one. Even if the Hawks get to 130 this game still has a great shot at staying UNDER the inflated Total.

ASA NHL play on Ottawa Senators -140 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets, 5pm ET - Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back on Sunday, but the Senators had the advantage of staying home and resting their top goaltender on Saturday, when they defeated Florida to boost their home record to 23-11-2. Meanwhile, Columbus relied on their primary goalie, Merzlikins, in Toronto on Saturday night, resulting in a loss that dropped their road record to 12-22-4. Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been solid between the pipes, posting a 10-3-1 record over 14 starts with a .904 save percentage. On the other side, Columbus netminder Daniil Tarasov has averaged a 2.5 goals-against average across his last ten appearances, with the Blue Jackets going winless in his past three starts and getting outscored by a combined nine goals. Ottawa has won 3 straight in the series with Columbus and 7 of the last ten meetings. Lay it with the Sens.

#903/904 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Back to back unders so far this in series and another one is likely here.  The Dodgers, not including extra innings runs, are allowing only 2.5 runs per game.  The Phillies are allowing only 1.6 runs per game last 5 games.  Glasnow is a fantastic pitcher that is very tough to hit and piles up strikeouts.  Sanchez off a great first start for the Phillies this season and went 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in his home starts last season.  Chilly and dreary weather expected in Philly for this one and this should be yet another tight, low-scoring battle between two of the top teams in the majors.  These two bullpens are a combined 8-0 with 7 saves in 9 opportunities and a blended ERA in the 2.50 range.  The point is that runs should again be tough to come by throughout this one.  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are the #1 hitting team in baseball and scoring an average of 9 runs per game!  The Pirates are at the other end of the spectrum but have been hitting better at home and overall Pittsburgh has scored 4 runs in each of last 3 games.  The way we see it, that makes this a great spot for an over.  The Yankees should stay red hot at the plate and the Pirates are likely to not only reach 4 runs here but probably even more.  Pittsburgh will be facing Will Warren of the Yankees here and he is still unproven at the MLB level with an 0-3 record and 9.11 ERA in 7 games (6 starts).  He gave up only 1 hit (a homer) in 5 innings in his first start this season but he walked 4 in that outing.  Also, Warren had a 5.09 ERA in spring training with a tendency there to also give up the big hit.  Warren, in regular season MLB action, has allowed 6 homers in 27 and 2/3 innings.  Both bullpens have unimpressive ERAs so far this season and the Pirates starter is also in line for a tough outing here.  Andrew Heaney had a very rough spring training going 0-3 with a 9.49 ERA and also his first start in the regular season was decent but yet he only struck out 2 in 5 innings.  He is coming off a 5-14 season with the Rangers and now he faces a Yankees team that has been destroying left-handed pitching this season. New York has a .728 slugging percentage versus southpaws on the season.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#200101/200102 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+115) – Tottenham vs Southampton, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Disappointing campaign for Tottenham and here is a chance to get right against Southampton. The Saints are having a disastrous season and, previous to the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, allowed 3.2 goals on average last 5 games. Not a surprise considering Southampton has allowed more goals than any other team in the league. Tottenham needs to respond off the 1-0 loss to Chelsea and get back on track after overall recent struggles. We trust them to score well here as they are one of the highest scoring teams in the league and average 2 goals at home this season. They also have allowed 26 goals in their 15 games at home so the Saints could surprise here with some goal-scoring but Hotspur likely to get 3 of their own at least. Our computer math model shows highest probability of a 3-1 or 3-2 final scoreline here and we will take the over in this one.

#679/680 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Houston vs Duke, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - These 2 met in the Sweet 16 last season and it was a 56 possession grinder with Duke coming out on top 54-51.  While we don’t expect the scoring to be that low in this one, we still anticipate a low possession game with 2 very high level defenses that will lead to an Under in this one.  Houston ranks as the #1 defense in the nation (efficiency) and they allow only 58 PPG which is also #1 nationally.  They have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 60 points or less including Purdue (7th nationally in offensive efficiency) and Tennessee (17th).  The Big 12 had 5 teams ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and Houston played 9 games vs those opponents.  Only 1 topped 65 points in those 9 games and those teams averaged 61 PPG vs Houston.  We don’t expect them to hold Duke, the #1 offense in efficiency, to those numbers but we also don’t look for the Devils to go wild offensively in this one.  The Blue Devils have fantastic offensive numbers but they’ve played a very weak schedule of defensive teams this season which lends to those stats.  They haven’t faced a team in the NCAA tourney that is ranked in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and the only ACC team that ranks in the top 20 in that metric was Clemson (17th) who held the Devils to 71 points.  What doesn’t get talked about enough is how good Duke is defensively.  They rank 4th in the country in efficiency and 7th in PPG allowed (62 PPG).  They have held 3 of their 4 tourney opponents to 66 points or fewer including limiting the #1 scoring team in the country, Alabama, to only 65 points in their most recent game.  That’s the same Bama team that was averaging 91 PPG on the season and had scored 90, 80, and 113 points in their first 3 NCAA games before hitting a wall vs this Duke defense.  The Blue Devils have played 38 games this season and have allowed more than 70 points only 7 times.  As we stated, we expect a low possession game as Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and Duke is a slower paced team this season as well (268th).  Both defenses make opponents work incredibly hard for shots with Houston’s opponents getting a shot off every 18.7 seconds (12th longest in the country) and Duke’s opponents every 19 seconds (5th longest).  A tough shooting venue in the Alamo Dome and we like the Under here.

#960 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - As mentioned here yesterday in our write-up on Atlanta, a 10-0 winner to open this series, the Braves were 0-7 to start the season but all their games were on the road and they faced the Padres and Dodgers!  Those are two very tough teams and, in fact, prior to yesterday's action they were a combined 15-0 so far this season!  The Braves in this series are now finally facing a weaker team and plus this is Atlanta's first home series of the season.  Seeing Atlanta, after starting this season with an 0-7 record, again favored by more than a -200 price might surprise some but we fully expected this.  Of course the Braves are much better than their record shows plus they have a solid pitching edge again here.  Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Marlins and he is not the same pitcher he was in his first few years with Cleveland.  In his final season in Cleveland in 2023, he had a 5.24 ERA and then he followed that with a 4.98 ERA with Colorado last season.  Now with his 3rd team in 3 years, Quantrill began his season with a very ugly outing plus now is facing a Braves team that got its swagger back with last night's huge win at home.  AJ Smith-Shawver starts for the Braves here and, though he has limited MLB experience, he has been tough to hit with a .205 opponents batting average in his 8 appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level.  In his 57 career minor league starts he also has allowed only a .200 batting average as well so this is a guy with a solid repertoire of pitches.  As we mentioned yesterday, if you look at stats so far this season you will see that Miami has the better numbers but, entering this season the Marlins were projected to lose about 100 games this season while the Braves had a season win total that projected them to only lose about 59 games!  The Braves, just like yesterday, take advantage of home field and a starting pitching edge and they get another much needed win.  We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another home blowout here!

ASA NHL top play on OVER 6.5 GOALS (-110) Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets – 7 pm ET - Perfect set-up here. The Maple Leafs are off a big divisional win over Florida and they have a road trip down to Florida on deck!  This means we are unlikely to see defensive intensity at its peak for the Leafs here.  They are in a dogfight to win the Atlantic Division as they are trying to hold off the Panthers and the Lighting and now they face both those teams down in Florida this coming week.  Toronto should have no trouble scoring goals on this struggling Blue Jackets defense (and goalie Merzlikins struggling too) but don't be surprised if Columbus is answering them goal for goal at the other end.  The Jackets already have beaten the Leafs in both meetings this season and they scored at least 5 goals in each win!  Granted they faced a different goalie in those two games then they face tonight but the confidence against Toronto is certainly there!  Also, Columbus has scored 4 goals per game in their last 6 games so their overall confidence is back up in the offensive zone.  The trouble for the Blue Jackets is that they have allowed 5 goals per game last 6 games and Toronto is sure to take advantage.  As for the Leafs, we know Stolarz has been announced as the expected starter tonight for the Maple Leafs and he has been playing well.  However, the Jackets are in a desperate situation (still alive in the Wild card race) and yet are weak defensively and in goal.  The point is that Columbus knows they have no choice but to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Stolarz.  This is going to end up a wide open game the way we see it as the Blue Jackets will be forced to be aggressive and to take risks but they are so weak in their own end that the Maple Leafs will cash in on this too in what should turn into a free-flowing affair.  Analyzing all the factors with this one we can't see either team being held below 3 goals and that would mean a 4-3 final at the very least in this one.  We actually predict that a 5-3 or 5-4 game is even more likely.  Both teams have been finding the net with regularity.  More of the same tonight.  Over is the call here! 

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Under 160 Points – Auburn vs Florida, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These 2 met once this year in early February and that total was set at 156. The game was played @ Auburn and the Gators pulled off the 90-81 win pushing it Over the total. There were 74 possessions in that game but we expect a slower paced game here as most teams reign it in a bit this late in the season. Every possession is huge. These 2 have combined to average 69 possessions per game in their 8 NCAA tourney game which is below their average for the season. We don’t think this rematch gets anywhere near the 171 posted in the first game. This game is being played at the Alamo Dome which is a huge arena meant for football, not basketball. It’s a tough shooting venue which has hosted 4 other Final 4’s and the average total points scored here in those previous games was 146. Of the 12 games played in the Final 4 and National Championship game at the Alamo Dome, only 2 reached 160+ total points. These 2 defenses are elite. They both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Auburn’s offense has posted PPP numbers (offensive efficiency) below their season average for 8 consecutive games. Defensively they have not allowed more than 70 points in this tourney. The Gators have been held under their PPP season average on offense in 4 of their last 5 games but they’ve held each of their opponents in this tourney below their offensive efficiency average. Once you hit the Final 4, it’s really tough for both teams to put up big offensive numbers in a game. In fact, over the last 15 seasons, there have been 45 Final 4 & National Championship games and only FOUR have reached 160+ total points. Both teams being from the SEC, they know each other very well and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points which keeps this Under the total.

#684 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -130 over Nebraska, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Both teams have 2 wins in this tourney but the Huskers have been fortunate with the teams they’ve faced to date.  In their opener they faced an Arizona State team that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers.  It took a 51% shooting effort from Nebraska to hold on for an 8 point win in a game they trailed for the majority of.  On Wednesday they faced Georgetown who was almost massively short handed down 3 starters, who are the Hoyas 3 leading scorers, who combined to average 45 PPG this season.  The Huskers finally get a full strength team in Boise State that is absolutely rolling on offense right now.  The Broncos have scored 89 and 100 points in their 2 games vs George Washington and Butler winning both easily.  Their GW game was a 30 point win and their Butler game, while a 7 point win, they were more dominant than that scoring leading by 16 late and still held a 12 point lead with 45 seconds left.  Butler’s only lead of the entire game was right out of the gate at 3-0.  Boise is one of the top rebounding teams in the country (+15 in the first 2 games) and we expect them to win the glass again here vs a Nebraska team that ranks near the bottom of the Big 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  Boise has the better offensive efficiency, eFG%, and FT% at 78%.  The Broncs have won 13 of their last 16 games with their only losses coming vs Colorado State (twice), who won the conference and beat Memphis in the NCAA before losing by 1 point vs Maryland, and San Diego State who also made the Big Dance.  The Huskers lost 6 of 7 entering this tournament before getting some fortunate breaks with a number of players missing from their opponents in the last 2 games.  Boise is the better team right now and at this small number we get a reasonable price on the money line which is a great value here. We’ll side with the Broncos.

#202533/202534 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-114) – Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday at 12:30 ET - Werder Bremen has scored multiple goals in 3 straight matches but has also allowed multiple goals in 3 straight matches at home.  They host Eintracht Frankfurt in this one and the visitors also come into this one in strong goal-scoring form with scoring an average of 2.2 goals last five. Eintracht Frankfurt off a 1-0 win but this was on the heels of 7 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals. Also, the last 7 times these clubs have met at Werder Bremen, all 7 went over the total! An average of 4 goals scored in those 7 meetings and we like the value here with this available at 3 goals and we will take the over in this one.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at LA Clippers, 10:30pm ET - This line is clearly inflated with the recent success of the Clippers so let’s bet value with the Mavericks. This number should be -7.5 at the most and a great comparison is what the Clippers were favored by recently at home against the 17-win Hornets of -13.5. Dallas was also recently +7 at Orlando without Gafford or Washington in the lineup and Anthony Davis was still working back into game-shape. The Mavs health is obviously key and tonight they have all three of the previously mentioned players available for this game against the Clippers. AD had a monster 34-points, 15 rebounds and 5 block game against Atlanta. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers have won and covered 8 of their last ten games, but again that has influenced the number on this game, giving us value with the dog. Both have plenty to play for as they fight for better playoff positioning. Dallas has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Clippers including 2 straight in Los Angeles.

#202509/202510 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-165) – Augsburg vs Bayern Munich, Friday at 2:30 ET -Augsburg has trended under recently but when they meet Bayern Munich the goals tend to fly. Not only have 5 straight meetings reached at least the 3-goal mark, those meetings averaged a total of 5.4 goals! Bayern Munich has averaged scoring 2.6 goals in last 7 matches including 5 in Bundesliga and 2 in Champions League - which were also against Bundesliga competition as they faced Bayer Leverkusen. Augsburg averages 1.1 goals scored per match in league action and Bayern Munich leads the league with 2.9 goals scored per match in league action. We like the value here with this one available at 2.5 goals and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NHL play on Calgary Flames -155 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 9:37pm ET - The Calgary Flames, boasting a strong 19-12-5 record at home, are set to take on the struggling Anaheim Ducks, who have a 14-22 road record this season. Calgary's goaltender Dustin Wolf, owns an impressive 2.33 goals-against average (GAA) at home, gives the Flames a clear edge in net. Wolf has been particularly dominant against Anaheim, going 2-0 with a stellar 1.48 GAA in two career starts. The Ducks will have John Gibson in net who is 11-10 on the season with a 2.72 GAA. The Flames have been a solid bet as home favorites, posting a 13-5 record, and they’re undefeated at 5-0 when favored in this specific price range. Historically, Calgary has controlled this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10 games against the Ducks. Take the Flames to come out on top in this one.

#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win.  We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair.  We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral.  Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play.  They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency.  All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric.  The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st.  They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both.  Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season.  In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed.  We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense.  UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game).  On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe.  Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers -4.5 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - The Raptors are officially eliminated from the playoffs and are in ‘tank’ mode tonight against the Blazers. Understand, tanking is not asking your players to lose, it’s management telling coaches to sit players for ‘rest’. Tonight’s injury list tonight includes more than half their roster and 4 of five starters. Don’t be misled by the Raptors 4-1 SU run in their last five games as the wins came against Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Philly, the four worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Portland has an outside shot at getting into the playoffs with 4 of their final six games coming against teams with sub .500 records. The Blazers are coming off a solid 14-point win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday with advantages in rebounding, shooting and had less turnovers. The Raptors have been a solid rebounding team all season long but tonight they’ll be without 3 of their top four rebounders so expect the Blazers to dominate the glass and second-chance baskets. Don’t be intimidated by the fact the Blazers are a road chalk here as they’ve covered 4 of five this season in that role with an average +/- of +10.1ppg.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati -5.5 over UCF, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 Big 12 foes met once this season and Cincy won by 10 at UCF. A few things that stood out in that game was the fact the Bearcats dominated inside making 33 of their 49 two point attempts (67%) which should take place again here as the Golden Knights are 243rd defending inside the arc. Secondly, UCF turned the ball over at a 21% rate in that home loss and we expect a solid advantage for Cincy in the turnover department again as they rank much higher offensive (lower turnover rate) and defensively (higher turnover rate). Lastly, UCF’s leading scorer in that game (and on the season) was Hall with 23 points and he has opted out of this tournament. The Knights beat Oregon State 76-75 yesterday which wasn’t overly impressive as OSU played that game without their 3 top scorers who combine to average 41 PPG on the season. The Beavers put up 75 points on 47% shooting despite missing their 3 best offensive players which is a huge concern. UCF’s defense has been poor all season (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency) and allowed Cincinnati to put up 93 points (their 2nd highest point total of the season) on 1.22 PPP in their lone meeting. The Bearcats defense is far superior (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on offense they are the better shooting team at 45% (173rd in the country) compared to UCF’s 42% (323rd). Central Florida has a negative FG% differential, 3 point FG% differential and PPG differential while the Bearcats are positive in all of those stats. We like Cincinnati here.

#200070 ASA PLAY ON Chelsea Money Line -150 vs Tottenham, Thursday at 3 ET - Chelsea is expected to have Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke all available for this one. This is a huge boost for them plus they are at home for this battle with Tottenham. The Hotspur have a history of struggles at Stamford Bridge. Through the years they have rarely earned a win or draw here and we are very comfortable laying the price with the hosts to again prevail in this one. In league matches this season Chelsea has only 2 losses at home while Tottenham has 8 losses on the road. This has all the makings of another one here as the Blues are looking so much better now on the health front. We will lay it with Chelsea in this one.

ASA play on Vancouver Canucks -148 vs. Seattle Kraken, 10:30pm ET - The Canucks are in a must-win situation, as they sit in the middle of the crowded Western Conference Wild Card race. They sit 6 points behind the St Louis Blues for the final Wild Card spot and must get 2-points here to have a better shot of qualifying for the playoffs. Vancouver plays six of their final eight games at home. The Canucks have some injury concerns, but it shouldn’t matter against this Seattle team that has been eliminated from the playoffs and sit 7 games below .500. The Kraken are 1-5 in their last six games with three of those losses coming by multiple goals, including their last two games by a minus -6 goal differential. As a dog this season the Kraken boast a 20-33 record, the Canucks are 17-14. Vancouver’s #1 netminder Thatcher Demko is back after missing over a month and has looked good in his last 3 starts going 2-1. In his last ten games Demko has a .912 save percentage and 2.2 goals against. The Kraken will have Joey Daccord between the pipes which hasn’t been good for Seattle fans. Daccord is 3-7 in his last ten starts with a 3.3 goals against and .881 save percentage. Lay it with Vancouver tonight.

#671/672 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points Nebraska vs Georgetown, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Crown Classic had a high scoring first day with all 4 games going Over the total but evened out yesterday with a 2-2 mark to the Over. Because of day 1, the totals were getting steamed up on Tuesday and this one is set too high. Both Nebraska and Georgetown went Over in their match ups vs Arizona State and Washington State respectively. The Huskers were on pace to go way Under the total vs a fast paced ASU team when the 2 went crazy in the final minutes. They scored 32 points in the final 3 minutes of the game and with just 1:20 remaining they still only had 146 total points (ended with 164). The Huskers shot 51% for the game which is well above their season average of 45%. We don’t expect a duplicate performance vs a Hoya defense that allows opponents to shoot 42% and gives up just 69 PPG on the season. On the other end of the court, we think Georgetown will struggle offensively vs a solid Nebraska defense (42nd nationally in defensive efficiency). The Hoyas will most likely be without their top 3 scorers again in this game and playing with only 5 scholarship players. They only had 1 starter available on Monday, Malik Mack, who averaged 11 PPG on the season and he went crazy scoring 37 of their points (45% of their total points) and made 8 of 12 from deep. Mack shot 31.9% from 3 on the season and that performance from Monday won’t be duplicated here. Neither team shoots the 3 very well (240th and 267th nationally) and both teams do a good job of not sending opponents to the FT line (both top 75 in opponent FT attempts per game). Nebraska games averaged 148 total points this season while Georgetown games averaged 141. We’re getting some solid value here because of their opening round games and the way this tourney has been trending the first 8 games. Let’s take this one Under the total.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 8:40pm ET - Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so each has plenty to play for. Both teams had their season’s derailed by injuries this season, but the Mavs are currently the more intact roster, at home and off a loss. Dallas had won 4 of five games before they laid an egg against the Nets last time out. We like them to bounce back here against a Hawks team coming off a home game last night and playing their 3rd in four nights. The Mavs got Daniel Gafford back last game and also had Anthony Davis for 28 minutes. We expect both to play here considering they had a day off prior to this game. The Hawks are 7-7 ATS this season when playing without rest, 5-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Atlanta has struggled against the Western Conference this season with an 11-17 ATS record and a negative differential in those games of minus -7.3ppg. Dallas has a slightly above .500 home record as a favorite this season of 11-10 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +8.0ppg. These teams have similar EDiff ratings for the season and in their most recent 5 games, but again the Mavs are getting healthy. Dallas should knock down plenty of open looks with their 9th best team FG% facing a Hawks defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in FG% defense. The Mavs are also the 13th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Hawks rank 28th in 3PT% D. Atlanta would typically enjoy a rebounding advantage in this matchup but with Gafford and Davis in the lineup they won’t have that luxury. Easy call for a blowout win here by Dallas.

#927/928 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Padres bullpen has a miniscule 0.38 ERA this season which is tops in the majors.  The Guardians bullpen, though giving up some hits, is also doing a fantastic job as they rank #1 in the AL this season with a 2.08 ERA.  This one sets up well for an under as the starting pitching match-up features two guys who pitched better than their ERA shows in their first starts of this season.  Lively goes for Cleveland here and he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings in his first start but was hurt by a 2-out 3-run homer in that game.  He did give up some long fly balls but he pitched better overall than the final results reflect.  Last season he had a 3.64 ERA in day games and the year before he had a 3.52 ERA in day games.  The Padres Cease gave up a 2-out 2-run single and a solo homer in his first start.  That ground ball could have been fielded if the 2nd baseman was in a better position and it should have been inning over.  Cease is a great pitcher and had 7 strikeouts in 4 innings in that outing. Opponents hit just .153 against him in day games last season and only .220 against him the year before in afternoon games.  Not including runs in extra innings, the Guardians have averaged scoring only 3 runs per game this season and they might only get 1 or 2 here considering they are facing Cease and a great bullpen. The Padres should also struggle at the plate as Boegaerts is 3 for 6 versus Lively but the rest of the active roster is a combined 1 for 21 against him!  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

#200065/200066 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (+110) – Liverpool vs Everton, Wednesday at 3 ET - Goals likely tough to come by. The last meeting was 2-2 at Everton in February but it was a rough and tumble battle that was 1-1 until the 73' mark plus then got a goal after the 90' mark. Prior to that rare, high-scoring draw between these clubs the last 5 meetings between these clubs all finished at 2 or less goals. Also, the last 5 meetings with Liverpool as the host have all been unders. Tempers boiled over in a brawl at the end of that 2-2 draw in February and we expect a rather cagey affair in the rematch with defensive play at the forefront. As a result, look for that under run with Liverpool hosting Everton to make it 6 in a row. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

#954 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Off last night's 6-1 win, we come right back with the same pick here. The Braves are now 0-5 on the season while the Dodgers are already 6-0 on the season. We again will lay the 1.5 runs on the run line which is available for plus money as of very early Tuesday morning.  Great value here with the Dodgers having scored an average of 5 runs per game (not including the extra innings runs in an 8-5 win) and the Braves averaging only 1.7 runs per game and coming into this one having scored a total of just 1 run in the last 3 games. The Dodgers are the team that is projected to be the most dominant in the majors this season and we look for LA to roll again!  The Dodgers have remained in Southern California all this time since returning from the opening series in Japan that took place over a week and a half ago as they also played some extended spring training games against the Angels before their 3-game sweep of the Tigers here.  They are rolling and it continues!  Atlanta's Sale is a solid veteran pitcher but is unlikely to work deep into this game.  Dustin May is back for the Dodgers and had a solid spring and looks poised to return to top form.  He has held hitters to a .206 batting average in his career.  While LA does not have the big starting pitching edge they had yesterday, their bullpen ERA is 2.37 this season while the Braves pen has a 6.19 ERA.  Couple that with the Dodgers swinging the bats much better than the Braves too so far this season and we have no hesitation in again laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another blowout here!

ASA play on UNDER 233 Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, 10pm ET - We are betting on a ‘playoff like’ game tonight between the Wolves and Nuggets. Games are taking on more meaning late in the season with playoff seeding on the line and tonight, these two teams have a lot to play for. Denver is 3rd in the West but only has a 1-game lead on the Lakers for 4th and trail Houston by 1.5-games for 2nd. Minnesota is currently 7th in the Western Conference which would mean play-in games just to qualify for the postseason. Last season these two teams met in a 7-game playoff series with everyone of those games staying below tonight’s total. In fact, those playoff games averaged just 200 total points per game. In two games early this season these two teams produced 235 and 237 total points but recently they combined for 210. Every possession for each team is going to be critical tonight so expect a more deliberate pace and longer possessions. Both teams have slowed their pace of play in their last 10 games. Denver is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA this season, but the Wolves defense ranks 6th in Defensive Efficiency. In turn, Minnesota’s not a great shooting team and will have a hard time exploiting a slightly above average FG% defense of the Nuggets. With tensions high tonight we like UNDER the total.

#657 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -120 over Cal Irvine, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The NIT semifinals are being played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, home of the Butler Bulldogs. This will be Irvine’s first game away from home in the NIT so they’ve had the much easier path to this game. They topped Northern Colorado by 10 and then had 2 very tight wins at home beating Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB in OT. While UCI had 4 days off prior to their first game in the NIT AND they were able to play all home games, they caught Jacksonville State and UAB in really rough spots. JSU was playing their 5th straight game away from home and had to travel from Georgia Tech to California after beating the Jackets in their first NIT game. Not an ideal travel spot. UAB had it even worse as they faced UCI on the road for their 7th straight road game and still took the Anteaters to OT. Now we get Irvine away from home and long travel to the Midwest. They’ve played 22 of their last 25 games overall in California and their lone trip east of the Mississippi this year resulted in a 16 points loss @ Duquesne. UNT’s route to this game was more impressive. They beat 2 top 100 teams (Arkansas St and Oklahoma St) including a win @ Okie State who was 13-3 at home with their only 3 setbacks prior to losing vs UNT were vs Houston, Texas Tech, and Arizona, who all made the NCAA Sweet 16. The Anteaters want to play fast but the Mean Green will slow this game to a crawl (362 in adjusted tempo). North Texas should win the shot volume battle here as they are much better taking care of the ball and creating turnovers defensively. They are also the better offensive rebounding team so those situations should give them extra possessions. The Mean Green are also the better 3 point shooting team and defend the arc very well (17th in opponent’s 3 point FG% compared to 184th for UCI). UNT head coach is Ross Hodge is very well respected by his players and despite the fact he accepted the West Virginia job, he wanted to see this through so he is coaching them here. Listening to the players’ comments, they would love to win the NIT for him before he heads out. We like North Texas to win this game.

#200033/200034 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Wolverhampton vs West Ham, Tuesday at 2:45 ET - Goals likely tough to come by. The Wolves are without Cunha and were already having troubles on the attack so it does not bode well for them here. However, West Ham has trouble scoring goals too so while the side is very tough to call here in our opinion, the total absolutely should be a solid under. Wolverhampton is off a 2-1 win but that came against hapless Southampton and, prior to this, the Wolves scored just 1 goal in each of last 5 matches. West Ham is on a run in which 5 straight matches (and 7 of last 8) have totaled 2 or less goals. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one.

ASA play on OVER 235.5 Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30pm ET - The Grizzlies sit 5th in the Western Conference, a game behind the Lakers for 4th, yet fired their coach Tayler Jenkins last week. Interim coach Lisalo Tuomas has never been an NBA head coach, but has extensive European experience. His philosophy is to play fast. In the Grizzlies most recent game they produced 261 combined total points with the Lakers. They attempted 95 field goals in the game, slightly more than their season average of 93.4. Memphis is already the fastest paced team in the league at 103.85 with the 6th most efficient offense in the league at 1.182-points per possession. The Grizz average 55.6 points in the paint this season, 2nd most in the NBA. Boston comes into this game with the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.208PPP. They attempt more 3’s per game at 48.3 than any other team in the league and make more at 17.9 per game. They have the 8th best 3PT% in the NBA at 37%. The best way to attack a solid Memphis defense is from beyond the arc. Memphis allows opponents to make 36.3% of their 3’s (16th) and give up the 25th most attempts and makes from Downtown. Both teams favor the OVER when playing non-conference games with a combined 35-20 record. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 248 total points. Expect more of the same tonight.

ASA play on Philadelphia Flyers -120 vs. Nashville Predators, 7pm ET - The Flyers look like a new team under new head coach Shaw after Philly fired Tortorella last week. Philly was 1-10-1 SU in their last twelve games under Tortorella and had managed just 10 total goals in their previous six games. With Shaw the team atmosphere has changed dramatically, and it’s led to a 2-0 run with 13 goals. It could be a stretch, but mathematically the Flyers still have a shot at making the Wild Card. Nashville on the other hand has been officially eliminated from the Playoffs this season. The Predators are 2-7 SU their last nine games with a negative total goal differential of minus -9 total goals. The Preds lost center Colton Sissons on Saturday who is listed as doubtful tonight. Nashville is 4-17 as a road dog this season -1085, Philadelphia is rarely a home favorite, but they are 11-5 in that role +255. The Preds goaltender Juuse Saros is 18-28 this season with an average 2.89 goals against.

#650 ASA PLAY ON Butler Pick'em over Utah, Monday at 3 PM ET - Our power ratings have Butler a few spots ahead of Utah and a 1 point favorite which is dead on with what the oddsmakers believe as well.  However, we think the Bulldogs hold some key advantages which will be the difference in this game.  First of all, Utah bad FT shooting team and in what is expected to be a tight game, that can play a huge factor.  The Utes make less than 64% of their FT’s on the season (357th out of 364 teams) and on top of that they won’t get their very often as Butler fouls very little.  Bulldog opponents have scored only 13.5% of their points from the FT line this season which is the 6th lowest mark in college basketball.  So when Utah gets there, they better take advantage and they’ve proven throughout the season they struggle at doing that.  Butler, on the other hand, hits just over 74% of their FT’s and they get there a decent amount with almost 21% of their points come from the charity stripe.  They should have a solid advantage from the FT line as well as from beyond the arc.  Both teams rely fairly heavily on making 3’s (114th and 115th in percentage of points from 3) but the Bulldogs are simply better at shooting it and defending it.  They rank 43rd in the country in 3 point FG% and 49th in the country in opponents 3 point FG%.  Utah ranks 234th and 174th respectively in those 2 key stats.  Neither team has been great when away from home but the Utes have been worse with only 1 road win (road or neutral) the entire season.  They shoot less than 40% overall away from home, less than 30% from 3 and average only 64 PPG while allowed 78 PPG.  Butler has 4 road/neutral site wins on the year and much more stable right now with long time solid head coach Thad Matta at the helm.  Utah, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Alex Jensen, but he is on the Dallas Mavs coach staff until the end of the season while this year’s interim and now soon to be leaving, head coach Josh Eilert will be coaching in this tourney.  We like Butler to win this one on Monday afternoon.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 at Phoenix Suns, 9pm ET - This number is a bargain as we get a peaking Houston Rockets team against a Suns team that is 11th in the West and has underachieved all season long. Most casual fans don’t realize the Rockets have vaulted to the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a 10-1 SU winning streak and a healthy roster. Phoenix is in full desperation mode to make the playoffs yet are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. If we take a closer look at each teams last ten games, we find the Rockets have a Net Rating of +8.5, the Suns NR is +0.9. The big separator between these two teams is the defense as the Rockets have the 11th best Defensive Net rating this season, the Suns are 27th. Houston has already beaten this team twice this season by +8 and +7 and we expect a similar win on Sunday in Phoenix. The Rockets are 27-17 SU (+5.1ppg) against other Western Conference opponents this season, the Suns are 21-16 SU (-1.7ppg). Phoenix has been a home underdog just 11 times this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of -5.1ppg going 5-6 SU. Houston is 16-4 SU as a road chalk, +9.0ppg. Take Houston here.

ASA NHL top play on OVER 6.5 GOALS (+100) Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks – 8 pm ET - Perfect set-up here. The Maple Leafs are in a B2B spot.  Toronto off a low-scoring win over the Kings last night but Los Angeles is known for playing lower-scoring games.  The Leafs used Stolarz in goal last night which means Woll should be getting the call tonight.  Not only has Woll allowed 4 or more goals in his last two starts, they were against the lower-scoring Sharks and Predators.  Now he faces a Ducks team that has been scoring well at home.  Also, Woll has allowed an average of 4 goals in his last 5 road starts so his road struggles are nothing new.  The Ducks will likely start Gibson here in goal after he returned recently from injury.  Though his first two starts have been good since he returned, he faced the Bruins and Predators.  Those are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league.  Now he faces a Maple Leafs team that is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league.  Also, before the win over the Bruins, Gibson allowed 6 goals in a loss to the Blackhawks in his most recent home start prior to facing Boston.  The Maple Leafs have won 5 of 7 games and averaged scoring 4 goals in those 7 games!  The Ducks have scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in their last 18 games on home ice!  Analyzing all the factors with this one we can't see either team being held below 3 goals and that would mean a 4-3 final at the very least in this one.  Both teams have been finding the net with regularity.  More of the same tonight.  Over is the call here! 

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:10PM ET - We are going to bet line value with the Bucks minus the short number against the Hawks today in a key Eastern Conference showdown. The Bucks sit 6th in the East, the Hawks are currently 8th so this game has seeding implications for both teams. Milwaukee is coming off a home loss so we expect a concentrated effort here against a Hawks team playing their 3rd straight on the road. These same two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month and the Bucks were favored by -5-points in the Hawks building and are now laying less than that at home. Atlanta isn’t a great shooting team to begin with at 46.9% overall (14th)and 35.6% from Deep (18th) and will struggle against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee has the 4th best FG% defense overall and the 6th best against the 3-pointers. Conversely, the Bucks are 5th in team FG% and 3rd in 3PT% while the Hawks defense is 28th in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% defense. The Bucks have had a few games to adjust to life without Dame Lillard and should get this home win by double-digits.

#645/646 ASA PLAY ON Under 148.5 Points – Michigan State vs Auburn, Sunday at 5 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine all season with a 25-11 mark. We were on the Under in the MSU vs Ole Miss game on Friday which cashed and we’re jumping back on here. Both of these defenses are elite ranking 4th (MSU) and 8th (Auburn) nationally in defensive efficiency. They both defend the arc at a top 10 rate as well (MSU 2nd and Auburn 7th). Sparty is a poor 3 point shooting team (318th) and the simply don’t attempt many triples (356th in percentage of points from deep). The Tigers are better shooting from 3 but not elite (55th in the country) and MSU limits opponents to around 6 made 3’s per game. We don’t expect a ton of points from deep in this game. Both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to adjusted tempo (134th and 179th) but they’ve played at a slower pace during the tourney which is to be expected. Especially MSU who tallied only 64 possessions on Friday vs Ole Miss (who has a similar tempo to Auburn) and 65 possessions vs New Mexico who is one of the fastest paced teams in the country (7th). Sparty has allowed 62, 63, and 70 points in their 3 games in the NCAA tourney and the 70 game vs Ole Miss who made a near half court heave as time expired or they would have been at 67. Auburn has allowed just 63, 70, and 65 points in their 3 games. Michigan State’s offense has been held under their season efficiency average in 5 of their last 6 games while Auburn has been held under their offensive efficiency average in 7 straight games. Now with each offense facing a top 10 defense, we don’t think they get anywhere near their average efficiency numbers in this one. Pressure packed game to get to the Final 4 where the defenses are the best units on the court. Under is the call.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Duke -6.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday and they went crazy.  They took 66 total shots from the field and a ridiculous 51 of those were from 3.  They made 25 triples (49%) which set the NCAA tourney record.  While the Crimson Tide are a solid 3 point shooting team, they aren’t great ranking 75th nationally.  We just don’t see that as a sustainable situation here vs a Duke defense that 5th nationally in efficiency (BYU was 82nd defensively).  If the Tide need to rely a huge number of 3’s again, they’re probably in trouble.  Duke dominated Arizona more than the 100-93 final score.  They led by 19 in the 2nd half before the Cats made a final push.  The Devils shot the 3 well (made 11 triples) but dominated at the rim hitting 61% of their shots inside the arc and now facing Bama defense that isn’t great defensively inside.  Duke was extremely efficient (1.41 PPP) vs a Arizona defense that compares favorably to this Alabama defense (35th and 27th respectively in defensive efficiency).  The Blue Devils were much more well rounded on offense Thursday taking 66 shots but only 19 from deep so they aren’t completely reliant on making 3’s compared to the Tide.  Duke has been the better team all season long and is the only team in the country in the top 5 both offense and defense efficiency wise.  They are in the top 10 in the country in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, shoot FT’s better (79% to 72%), turn the ball over less (16th to 143rd for Bama), and they are the much better defensive rebounding team limiting 2nd chance points.  They had a huge lead vs a very good Arizona team and almost blew it.  We don’t think that happens in back to back games.  Lay it with Duke.

ASA play on UNDER 218.5 Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic, 5pm ET - The Magic are coming off a tough home loss to the Mavericks while the Kings are off a big home win over the Blazers. The Magics offense has a Net rating of 111.1 in their last eight home games where they’ve played extremely slowly with 95.75 possessions per game and scored 106.6ppg. The Kings are averaging 110.8ppg in their last six games away from home and have scored 106 or less points in 6 of their last ten games. The Magic have the 2nd best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.100PPP, the Kings are 22nd. Sacramento is 22nd in pace of play and prefer to play half court with Sabonis and DeRozan who are both better in a set offense. The Kings defensive numbers aren’t great in their last ten games but they’ve faced a gauntlet of great offenses which has skewed their numbers. We like UNDER 218 here.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Houston -8 over Purdue, Friday at 10 PM ET - The only “sort of” advantage Purdue has in this game is the fact it’s being played in Indianapolis which is 70 miles from their campus. However, this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and not at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers) where the Big 10 tourney was located. So beyond the PU fanbase, that mitigates the home court as neither team has played here this season. The Boilers offense is predicated on the pick n roll with PG Smith and Kaufman-Renn but the problem is, Houston is by far the best PnR defense in the country. Their hard aggressive hedge with long athletes makes is very tough on opposing offenses that rely in PnR. Purdue is not great at protecting the ball and in fact they turned it over a whopping 28% of the time vs McNeese State in the round of 32. That would normally be lights out, however PU did hit 11 triples and gather 41% of their missed shots to counteract the turnovers. That won’t happen here. They will turn the ball over (Houston 18th in the nation at creating turnovers) but the Cougs are very good on the glass AND they will capitalize on the turnovers, something McNeese did not do posting a 0.91 PPP number. On the other end, Purdue’s 2 point defense is very poor (341st nationally) but they also allow a lot of 3 points attempts (262nd). That’s bad news facing a Houston offense that ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. Purdue has had the benefit of facing High Point and McNeese State (2 double digit seeds) to get to this point. Houston just faced vastly underseeded Gonzaga (top 10 team per KenPom) and controlled the entire game never trailing and leading by as much as 14 points. They led by 11 with only a few minutes remaining when the Zags made a late push losing by 5. Houston has lost ONE game since December 1st and that was in OT vs a very good Texas Tech team that is also in the Sweet 16. The Cougs 4 losses have all come by 5 points or less and 2 were in OT so conceivably their 31-4 record could be better. They are the much better team across the board in this game and we’ll lay it.

ASA play on NY Knicks pick’em at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We expect Giannis to be back in the lineup tonight for the Bucks, unfortunately Dame Lillard is likely out for the rest of the season. We like to fade teams that are off extended road trips and playing their first game at home with short rest. The Bucks played in altitude in Denver on Wednesday and lost to the Nuggets 117-127. Milwaukee is 2-4 SU their last six games with a low Net rating of 0.1. There is a ton of noise surrounding the Knicks and how they’ve underachieved this season yet this still sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference. In their last ten games the Knicks have a positive Net rating of +2.5 without All-Star Brunson. New York is a respectable 21-15 SU on the road this season with a +1.5 average point differential. Milwaukee has been atrocious against top 10 teams with a 4-18 SU record this season. The Knicks have won 4 straight against the Bucks and we expect them to make it 5 in a row tonight.

#635/636 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 points – Michigan State vs Mississippi, Friday at 7 PM ET - We have 2 very defensive minded coaches in this game with Izzo and Beard. Both defenses rank in the top 21 in efficiency (MSU 5th and Ole Miss 21st). MSU’s defense has been top 10 all season long. They allow just 67 PPG on the season and held Bryant to 62 points and New Mexico to 63 in their 2 tourney games. Both of those teams like to play very fast (both top 10 tempo) and have good offensive efficiency numbers and Sparty shut them down to 0.87 and 0.97 PPP. The Spartan have played 35 games this season and only 11 of those opponents topped 70 points. In their 2 tourney games, Ole Miss held a red hot UNC, who had scored at least 80 points in 7 of their previous 12 games, to just 64 points. Over the weekend the Rebs had a high scoring game vs Iowa State (91-78 final) but Ole Miss had an outlier offensive performance hitting 58% of their shots AND 58% of their 3 pointers. Even with that, the game was at 130 total points with 5:00 minutes remaining and with ISU down by double digits, they pushed the pace and the 2 teams scored 39 points from that point on. MSU shoots very few 3’s and when they do the hit only 31% (323rd nationally). On the other end, the Rebels are an OK 3 point shooting team (122nd nationally) however the Spartans are the #1 three point D in the country allowing 27.8%. Both offenses haven’t been overly efficient away from home this season with MSU averaging 1.04 PPP and Ole Miss 1.07. This game is being played at State Farm Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks, and an unfamiliar venue to both teams which could affect shooting. MSU has been an Under juggernaut all season with a 24-11 mark and we look for another one on Friday. Both defenses allow less than 0.96 PPP on the season they are the 2 best units on the floor. Play the Under here.

NBA play on UNDER 218.5 Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

We were hoping this line would be above 216 and were prepared to bet it UNDER at anything above that number. The 219 is a very generous number based on our numbers, and we expect a total well below this tonight. Orlando is the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game. They are also really good defensively with the second-best Defensive Efficiency rating at 1.10PPP. The Magic aren’t great offensively though the 3rd worst Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.088PPP. Dallas is average is pace, below average offensively and defensively. The Mavs are coming off an incredible shooting night against the Knicks at 54% overall and were well above expectations in the 1st half. Naji Marshall was 17/25 from the field and we don’t expect him to duplicate those numbers against this Magic defense. The Mavs should have Anthony Davis back for this game and while he provides more offense, he’s also one of the best big defenders in the NBA. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 193 total points. 

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.