ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET

The surprising Tigers have won 4 straight road games. It also seems the time off due to their games with the Cardinals being cancelled did this lineup a lot of good as Detroit has exploded for 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Part of that included giving Steven Brault trouble out of the bullpen Friday night as the Pittsburgh left-hander faced 6 Tigers and did not record an out! Now he gets the start here on Sunday because Joe Musgrove has right ankle soreness and has been scratched. Overall this is a bad Pittsburgh team with a 3-12 record that is the worst in the majors. Sunday they face the Tigers best starting pitcher so far this season as Spencer Turnbull continues to impress. A devastating slider for hitters to contend with has helped lead to 14 strikeouts in 11 innings as the Detroit right-hander has been sharp with a 2.45 ERA in his first two starts. This one, per our computer math model, is likely to turn into a road rout as Detroit stays hot at the plate and the Pirates overall early season struggles continue. Bet the Tigers on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Boston Bruins Money Line (-) over Washington Capitals, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET

This is a game in the round robin for seeding purposes and if Boston loses they play Carolina and if they win they play the Islanders in the first round of the post-season.  While neither of those teams is particularly appealing to face the Bruins would likely rather avoid a Carolina team that swept the Rangers out of the playoffs.  Not only that, Boston simply needs (and is hungry) for something positive to take out of this round robin and this is their last chance to get a positive before the true playoff pressure begins.  While the Capitals have earned a point in the post-season, the Bruins are still without a point in this round robin.  Also, Washington saw Nicklas Backstrom miss practice Friday plus John Carlson missed the most recent game and could still be out again here as well.  Additionally, the Capitals Lars Eller left the bubble for the birth of a child.  All in all, the Bruins are set up better here in terms of healthy bodies and also have the motivational factor as well.  Boston won the most recent meeting between these teams by a count of 7-3, and per our computer math model, the Bruins are poised to dominate this one as well.  ASA TOP PLAY 10* Boston Bruins on the money line in very early action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET

The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring only 2.4 runs per game in their 7 road games this season.  Arizona got shut out by the Padres last night and are likely in for another tough night at the plate Saturday.  That is because Chris Paddack takes the mound for San Diego here.  He has been very sharp already this season.  He also is at his best at home.  Paddack is already 2-0 in his 2 home starts this season and last season at home he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and opponents hit just .188 against him at Petco Park.  The Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight should also enjoy success.  Merrill Kelly has been sharp overall in his early season action (even battling hard against a tough Dodgers lineup) and the Padres have averaged only 6 hits per game in their past 3 games.  Kelly had a great September last year and has carried that momentum right into this season.  He is now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 7 starts!  In Kelly's last two starts against the Padres he has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 18!  Suffice to say he has plenty of confidence entering this match-up against the Padres.  Per our computer math model runs will be few and far between in this one.  Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Saturday.  

ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET

The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright.

ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

You never want to over-react to one game but the Royals 13-2 win yesterday was a big one for this team.  It is the kind of confidence-boosting win that can get an entire lineup going.  KC pounded out 18 hits and got RBI's yesterday from 7 of the 9 lineup spots.  In other words, it was a true team effort and gives Kansas City a lot of confidence heading into this match-up against a struggling Twins pitcher.  Keep in mind, yesterday's game was the 3rd time in 4 games that a Royals home game has totaled at least 11 runs.  Also, facing the Twins Devin Smeltzer should help the Royals bats carry momentum from yesterday's big win.  Smeltzer got rocked in his lone appearance on the road this season and also struggled in his outings away from home last season.  Kansas City starts Jakob Junis in this one.  He went 4-8 with a 5.85 ERA in his home starts last season.  Kauffman Stadium can be a very hitter friendly ballpark especially when the wind is blowing out like it is expected to be tonight.  Junis first start this season (versus the White Sox) did not go well.  Now he faces a Twins lineup loaded with home run power.  Junis has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts against Minnesota and, per our computer math model, more struggles for him against this potent lineup are expected tonight.  Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (-) over Florida Panthers, Friday at 12:00 PM ET

The Islanders took the first two games of this series and, including regular season action, that made it 6 straight wins for the Islanders in meetings with Florida.  The Panthers finally got a win in Wednesday's game as they took advantage of a couple of mistakes by New York.  Florida potted two power play goals in the game but, once again, anyone watching that contest as well as having watched this entire series would agree that the Islanders have a "next level" that the Panthers just don't.  The reason for the dominance the Islanders have in recent meetings with Florida is because their system frustrates the Panthers and that is why Florida scores so few goals in meetings between these teams.  The problem in Game 3 was the Islanders, up 2-0 in the series, relied on that a bit too much and didn't show their "next level" for stretches during that game.  Note that this is the first time we have seen these 5-game series in the NHL post-season in about 35 years.  They are only being used because of how the pandemic impacted the finish to the regular season.  The key point about the 5-game series though is that NHL teams are 56-1 when they take a 2-0 lead in the series.  In other words the odds strongly favor the Islanders winning this series and we know they don't want this to go to a winner-takes-all game 5.  With that being said, the Islanders bring their "A game" from the opening drop of the puck and that leads to a solid game 4 win.  The Panthers have only won one playoff series in franchise history and that was 24 years ago when they made a run all the way to the Stanley Cup finals before falling to the Avalanche in a sweep.  Florida has been one and done in the playoffs ever since then and have only scored 1 even strength goal per game so far in this series.  The Islanders let Game 3 get away from them but won't make the same mistake here.  Even though Jonahan Huberdeau, Florida's leading scorer, will likely find a way to play in this game, his leg injury could absolutely impact his effectiveness.  The Islanders are such a frustrating team to play against and they again stifle the Panthers here but you'll also see a little more from New York in the offensive zone in this one too.  Before that loss in Game 3, the Islanders had won 6 straight meetings with the Panthers by a combined score of 15 to 8.  Per our computer math model here a 3 to 1 win in the forecast for the small money line favorite in this one.  ASA TOP PLAY New York Islanders on the money line in very early action Friday.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET

There is rain in the Philly area this morning and could be some lingering afternoon activity as well.  However, forecasts as of now indicate a quieter period in the early evening before rain possibly resumes overnight.  In any event, this situation is too strong to ignore and we hope the weather stays away enough that they are able to play the full 9 innings in this one.  Zach Eflin is actually the #4 starter for the Phillies but making his first appearance of the season due to prior covid-19 and weather cancellations.  Very tough for a pitcher to stay sharp when the season started two weeks ago and yet he is just now getting his shot at game action on the mound!  Plus Eflin will be facing a Yankees team whose .491 slugging percentage is tops in the majors.  Eflin has good stuff in his repertoire of pitches but he has never been able to fully harness it and has a 4.73 ERA at the MLB level as he now enters his 5th season.  The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery here and he'll be facing a Phillies lineup that came to life yesterday with a big 11-7 win in the first game of yesterday's double header.  Philadelphia's .424 slugging percentage ranks them 7th among the 30 teams in the majors. Montgomery does have a knack for giving up the long ball particularly in road starts.  Also, this will be just his 9th start since his rookie season in 2017 which was the last time he had significant activity at the MLB level.  In other words you've got two starting pitchers here who are each question marks to an extent based on the above.  You also have two potent powerful lineups and our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs to be scored in this one.  Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Thursday.

ASA PLAY 10* on Edmonton Oilers Money Line (-) over Chicago Blackhawks, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET

As expected, the Oilers bounced back strong in Game 2 to knock off the Blackhawks. This followed a Game 1 win for Chicago in which power play opportunities and loose play resulted in a very high-scoring upset win. While the win was impressive and the Blackhawks do have a nice mix of veteran talent and some young up and comers, the problem for the Blackhawks is they are still short of the level of team (and coaching) that Edmonton has. Lets not forget that the Hawks were a #12 seed for this qualifying round so this is one of the biggest mismatches on the board and the Oilers are starting to establish their will after a rough start in Game 1. Now the Oilers take it up yet another notch for this crucial "swing game" in Game 3. Yes in a 5-game series that is tied at 1 game apiece Game 3 becomes critical. The only reason that the NHL is using these 5-game series again (for the first time since the mid-80s) is because of this special qualifying round for this season's playoffs. History in NHL shows that over 80% of the time that a 5-game series is tied 1-1 the team that wins Game 3 goes on to win the series. In other words this game is critical. Both teams are aware of that fact of course but Edmonton is the team that can raise their game to the higher level. That is why this is a #5 vs #12 match-up. We would recommend playing this one early in the day as the price has dropped some this morning but we believe that was a set up per se and this price will now be rising as the day goes on. ASA PLAY 10* Edmonton on the money line in late night action Wednesday.

ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 223 Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic, 8PM ET The Magic are playing without rest today so fatigue could certainly be an issue on the offensive end of the floor against a great defensive team like the Raptors. Orlando got off to a great start in the Bubble by producing 128 and 132 points in wins over the Nets and Kings and shot over 52% in those two games. Then yesterday they faced a Pacers team that plays defense (6th in defensive efficiency) and struggled to score 109 points. Today the Magic face a Raptors team that is 2nd in the NBA in D.E.F.F. allowing just 1.050 points per possession. In two games in the Bubble the Raptors have given up just 92-points and 103-points to the Heat and Lakers who are both better statistically than the Magic offensively. Orlando is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and will provide a stiff challenge for the Raptors on that end of the floor. Neither team likes to play fast as Toronto is barely above league average in pace of play while the Magic are well below average, ranking 26th in the NBA at 98.4 possessions per game. Toronto has a bigger game on deck against the Celtics and may not be as engaged versus the Magic tonight. In the 3 meetings earlier this season these two teams combined for 199, 210 and 173 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Indians have struggled to score runs all season.  They show an average of 2.7 runs per game in their first 12 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that.  Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs.  Other than that the Tribe have scored just 23 runs in their other 11 games.  That is an average of 2.1 runs per game which is hard to believe.  It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here.  That's because they are facing Tejay Antone of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander made his debut against a Cubs team that is currently in 1st place in the division and certainly a tough lineup to face. Antone shut them down with just 1 hit allowed over 4+ innings. The rookie right-hander also looked sharp in spring training and summer camp. Adding to his value in this spot is that the struggling lineup of the Indians (.183 batting average on season ranking dead last!) has never faced him. As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late.  Cincinnati has scored 15 runs in their last 5 games.  Yes, two of those games were in a double-header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season, but the fact is the Reds have a .213 batting average on the season which ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the majors.  Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians.  The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a rare tough start as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the game over the past 3 seasons compiling a 38-18 record with an ERA under the magical 3.00 mark! Also his tough outing in his last start was at Minnesota but now he is back home where he excelled in his first start this season plus went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA last season. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET

The value here is huge.  This total opened up at an 8.5 which was already low (more on that in a moment) but then dropped down to a solid 8 which adds even more value to this one.  Everyone saw the Rays struggle on their road trip but they are a different team at home and also will get to Nathan Eovaldi early and often in this one.  Tampa Bay is averaging 6.6 runs per game when hitting at Tropicana Field this season.  Eovaldi is still getting factored into games as if he was the same pitcher who raised his game in the 2018 post-season with the Red Sox.  The fact is that he is not as all the injuries have caught up with him.  He has had two Tommy John surgeries and is coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign as well.  Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA last season in 23 games (12 starts) and he got rocked by the Mets for 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start.  The Rays Charlie Morton got rocked in his first start this season (at home no less) but then was better in his 2nd one though he still allowed 6 hits in 5 innings and was hit quite hard.  He struggles more against lefties and the Red Sox will have plenty of left-handed lumber in the lineup tonight plus some big right-handed sticks like Xander Bogaerts whom no one wants to face!  While the Rays do have a solid bullpen behind Morton the Red Sox bats are quite dangerous.  As for the Boston bullpen, they have issues and their team ERA is high for a reason!  That said, the Red Sox pitching is bad enough that the Rays bats come to life at home.  The Boston bats are strong enough that the Rays pitchers prove susceptible.  Combining those factors and the fact that Eovaldi and Morton have been more hittable than usual early this season and you have the makings of an easy over in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday

ASA 10* top play on: Orlando Magic (-) over Indiana Pacers, 6PM ET The Magic were exceptionally good to us the other night in their blowout win over Sacramento and we will come right back with a bet on them again here. The Magic were up 35 after 3-quarters against the Kings and were able to play the entire bench most of the 4th quarter. A rested Magic team catch a Pacers team off a game yesterday and playing their 3rd in four days. Indiana had all five starters log over 33 minutes Monday and have not been a good team without rest this year at 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU record. Going back further we find the Pacers are 23-30 SU when playing the second night of a back-to-back with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. The Pacers have beaten the Magic twice already this season but that was back in November and Orlando is playing much better now. The Magic have won five in a row and covered 9 of their last ten games dating back to the pre-Covid break and have shot over 52% in both games in the Bubble. These two teams are similar in several key statistical categories, but the Magic have elevated their game to another level in the re-start. Bet Orlando.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET

The Indians have struggled to score runs all season.  They show an average of 2.6 runs per game in their first 10 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that.  Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs.  Other than that the Tribe have scored just 17 runs in their other 9 games.  That is an average of 1.9 runs per game which is hard to believe.  It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here.  That's because they are facing Sonny Gray of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander has absolutely dominated in his first two starts and continues piling up strikeouts!  As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late.  Cincinnati has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games.  Yes, the last two were a double header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season but the fact is the Reds have a .226 batting average on the season which ranks them 20th out of the 30 teams in the majors.  Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians.  The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a solid 2019 and got 2020 off to a great start as he absolutely handcuffed the White Sox in a dominating effort in which he fanned 11 in 6 innings.  Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Cincinnati in early evening action Monday.

ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Toronto Maple Leafs versus Columbus Blue Jackets, Sunday at 8 PM ET

The Blue Jackets like to play tight defensive-minded hockey but the Maple Leafs won't allow for that.  The strength of Toronto is their speed and their skilled forwards.  Columbus head coach John Tortorella already announced some lineup changes to try and infuse more speed into his lines.  That said, we're looking for a fast-paced and a bit of a helter-skelter type game in the opener of this 5-game series.  The Maple Leafs are known for early exits from the post-season as it has been over a decade since they won a playoff series.  That said, if they again fall short here it is because their goal-tending lets them down.  We look for a high-scoring game here in game one regardless of who proves victorious.  We simply don't trust the play of the Maple Leafs in their defensive zone but we know that the forwards of Toronto are going to give the Blue Jackets a lot of trouble at the other end of the ice!  Yes, 4 of the 5 games yesterday totaled 5 or less goals but there is a reason this total is set at 6 goals and we won't let the bigger number keep us away.  This one has the makings of a game that will see the lamp lit early and often behind each netminder!  Bet the OVER in Toronto in NHL evening action Sunday 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:08 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw 7 runs scored by the top of the 3rd inning and then the bats went silent.  That is highly unlikely to happen again today.  The Red Sox team ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season.  Boston is scheduled to use Austin Brice as an opener in this one.  That said, it really wouldn't matter who the Red Sox use as the starter here but he is the one that is scheduled for Boston as of this morning.  Again, this one is being called a "bullpen game" for the Red Sox.  Brice has a 5.00 ERA in his 110 MLB appearances and has never started a game.  This season he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one on Sunday evening in the Bronx.  That will help the hitters for both teams of course and we like the chances of the Boston bats coming back to life after last night's dismal result.  The Red Sox will face James Paxton who is off a horrible start in which he was rocked by the Nationals.  He is trying to get back to his usual form after having back surgery early this year.  Suffice to say early indicators point to issues.  Paxton plans to make some adjustments for this start but he tends to be a streaky pitcher as evidenced by his month to month stats last season.  We're banking on an early season down cycle for him this season and expect another tough start in his 2nd outing of the season.  Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Sunday

ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET

Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up.

BET MARTIN TRUEX JR + over Ryan Blaney

Truex Jr and the No. 19 got a win earlier this season on the shorter half-mile flat track in Martinsville using this same race package and will again have a car capable of capturing the checkered flag Sunday. Truex Jr. has not won in New Hampshire but he has 6 Top 10’s and 3 Top 5’s in his last 10 races on this oval. In his 10 most recent races here he is second only to Kyle Busch in laps led at 596. In his last four Cup races at the Magic Mile his average finish of 4.5 is best of the field. The No. 19 is one of our favorites to win Sunday and will finish higher than Blaney who has just seven career Cup races on the Magic Mile and zero laps led in New Hampshire.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET

The Rockies took a 5-4 lead to the top of the 9th last night.  The Padres then tied it on a solo bomb and then won it on a 3-run shot with 2 outs!  Big win for San Diego for sure but we look for the home team to bounce right back today!  The Padres are off to a good start this season but that has them a little over-valued now and we're going to take advantage.  Coming into this season San Diego and Colorado were very close in terms of their win total projections for the shortened 2020 season 60-game schedule.  That said, for the Padres to now be favored on the road in this situation is a little bit much!  San Diego finished 13 games UNDER .500 in road games last season.  The Rockies finished 5 games OVER .500 in home games last season.  In looking at this pitching match-up today note that San Diego's Joey Lucchesi struggled as he got deeper into his first start.  Also, Lucchesi was great at home last season but went 2-6 with a 6.22 ERA in his road starts last season and Coors Field tops the list of unfriendly sites for a visiting pitcher!  As for the Rockies starter, Kyle Freeland, his first start saw him face the minimum 3 batters in each of the final 3 innings of his 6-inning start!  He got stronger as the outing went on!  He looked like the pitcher we saw in 2018 whom went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA including 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his home starts.  Though Freeland struggled at home last season he also struggled overall last season but his hard work to "return to form" coming into this season has a great chance of paying off and it sure looks like he's back the way he pitched in his first start!  Keep in mind, unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland was better at home than on the road in both 2017 and 2018.  He is very familiar with pitching at Coors Field and gets the better of Lucchesi in this one and the Rockies get immediate payback for last night's late loss.  Bet the Rockies on the money line in evening action Saturday

ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET

This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:10 PM ET

Both teams are off games in which they scored just 2 runs last night.  However, the O/U on this one opened up at a 10 with good reason.  The Mets were hosting the Red Sox last night and fell short but now face Sean Newcomb of the Braves whom they already faced last week.  The Braves hung on for a 2-1 win hosting the Rays last night.  While their bats were quiet in that game, Atlanta will now take advantage of again seeing Rick Porcello as they faced him this past weekend in their opening series of the season.  Porcello struggled and gave up 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in that outing against the Braves.  He had a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox last season and giving a team a second look at you after they just rocked you in your prior start usually doesn't go well for a struggling hurler.  That being said, Porcello has seen his better days in this league and is on the downhill slide at this point in his career.  Atlanta's Newcomb had a ton of trouble with his command against the Mets this past weekend and it took 82 pitches for him just to record 10 outs as he lasted just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in that start.  The Braves lefty is notorious for being a slow starter as he had a rough April each of the past two years.  In this strange pandemic year, this is Newcomb's April and, per our computer math model, more struggles ensue today for both starting pitchers and the bullpens will again be called upon far too early as a result.  Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Friday

ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET

In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees (9 runs scored, 3 homers) proved yesterday that missing a series in Philly (due to the covid-19 situation with the Marlins who had just visited there) was not going to impact their bats.  Indeed the Yankees had their big lumber going yesterday and we expect more of the same tonight.  John Means gets the start for the Orioles.  The lefty was supposed to start the season opener for Baltimore but did not due to arm fatigue.  That is certainly not a good sign for Means and he does not have overpowering stuff plus is a flyball pitcher.  Yes he had some success for the Orioles last year but not against New York.  The Yankees crushed Means for 10 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings in the two times they faced him as a starter.  Plus, with arm fatigue already an issue for Means entering this season, you could see an early exit for him here and that gets the Yanks powerful bats into a weak Orioles bullpen.  Baltimore had a 5.92 ERA in home games last season - the worst mark in the league.  Yankees start JA Happ here and the southpaw would likely rather face someone other than the Orioles.  Happ's 6.85 ERA in 5 starts against Baltimore last season show that this is a team that gives him trouble.  Happ gave up 7 homers to the Orioles last season and no team hit more against him . There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game and the ball will again be carrying well at Camden Yards again tonight with a favorable weather report for the hitters.  All signs, including our computer math model, point to this game turning into a high-scoring affair with plenty of big innings expected.  Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Thursday

ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET

 The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

Charlie Morton starts for the Rays here.  He was great through the first three innings of his first start of the season.  Morton then uncharacteristically ran into trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings.  He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball (45-16 last 3 seasons) and will bounce back strong here facing the team that he began his career with.  Morton had a 3.08 ERA the last 2 seasons and is known for responding well when off a rough outing.  The Rays right-hander had a 1.39 ERA in his 8 starts last season which followed an outing in which he was charged with 4 or more runs.  Morton will take advantage of facing a Braves team that is not swinging the bats very well.  Atlanta had one big game at the plate so far this season but in the other 4 games (3 losses), the Braves have scored an average of only 3 runs a game.  The key to the value with the under here is that the Braves are turning to their staff ace Mike Soroka for this start.  He pitched 6 scoreless innings in his opening day start and is coming off a season in which he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA.  The Rays have very little familiarity with him and like the Braves, have had only one big game at the plate so far this season.  Other than one strong game, Tampa Bay's other 4 games have seen them average only 6 hits per game!  Soroka versus Morton, per our computer math model, is set up perfect to be a pitchers duel.  Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:05 PM ET

The Blue  Jays ended up without Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, and Travis Shaw on Monday and yet Toronto still finished with 4 homers in the game.  The problem for anyone who had the over in Monday's contest was that all 4 homers were solo shots in the 4-1 win.  The other problem (speaking for those who had the over) was that the Blue Jays recorded 4 double plays, the teams went a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and the Nationals scored just 1 run despite 10 hits.  All these signs point to a much higher scoring match-up on Tuesday even if the above mentioned players are again out of the lineup (although 1 or 2 are likely to be back in it).  The key is the pitching match-up here and the fact that the Nationals wasted so many opportunities Monday and are likely to bounce back huge at the plate after the 4-1 home loss.  The Blue Jays are starting former Nat Tanner Roark and he was very hittable in summer camp and got hit at a .279 clip on the road last season.  He is a combined 19-25 the past two seasons and has had unimpressive ERAs for the season the past 3 years since his phenomenal 2016 campaign.  Roark may be guilty of "overthrowing" here as emotion gets the best of him as he faces his former team in DC.  Also, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is out with an injury!  We also look for the Nationals starting pitcher, Austin Voth, to struggle in this one.  The right-hander struggled against left-handed bats last season in terms of batting average against and the Jays had 4 left-handed bats in last night's lineup.  Against righties, Voth had trouble in terms of power with 4 homers allowed in 24 innings versus righties.  The Jays proved again last night, even without their full lineup, that they have plenty of power as they knocked 4 out of the park.   Toronto entered this season with plenty expected at the plate but they faced the pitching-rich Rays to open the season and that held them back some.  On Tuesday they take advantage of facing the Nats #5 starter.  At the same time, the Nationals run production picks up after a crazy result in Monday's game filled with wasted opportunities for the home team.  Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 3:40 PM ET

The A's are up 2-1 in this 4-game series but this has been a series that could have gone either way thus far.  Arguably the Angels could be up 3-0 and should be up at least 2-1 in this 4-game set.  That factor along with the pitching edge here is why this line opened up with Oakland as such a short home favorite.  The Angels opened up as a very small underdog for a reason.  The first game between these 3 teams show a 7-3 final but the A's hit a grand slam for the win in the bottom of the 10th.  The second game saw the Angels win 4-1.  Then Sunday's game saw Shohei Ohtani of the Angels allow 5 earned runs without recording an out in the first inning!  That set up the A's perfectly but the Angels outscored Oakland 4-1 the rest of the way.  We like the resilient Angels to again respond off a loss just like they did in Saturday's game.  Los Angeles starts Griffin Canning here and he had a 3.80 ERA in his day game starts last season while holding opponents to a .224 batting average.  He enters this start off a great tune up to wrap up summer camp as he pitched 6 scoreless innings in that start and allowed just 3 hits while striking out 5.  Canning is ready for an A's team that has not been swinging the bats particularly well early this season.  Look for the Angels to get to A's starter Chris Bassitt early and often.  In looking at the A's starting pitchers he is the one least ready for the season in terms of having arm strength built up.  Bassitt has a history of struggles with the Angels and that includes allowing 11 runs (7 earned) in 9 innings spanning his two career home starts versus LA.  This is a potent Angels lineup that has the right match-up here for a breakout game and, per our computer math model, they roll to a road rout in this one.  Bet the Angels on the money line in afternoon action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins here.  He had some impressive numbers (at times) in LA courtesy of pitching in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.  On the road was a different story for Maeda.  Last season was the 2nd time in the past 3 seasons that Maeda had an ERA north of 5.00 away from home.  Now he faces a White Sox team that pounded out 5 homers in yesterday's 10-3 win over the Twins.  It will be hot and humid weather with the wind expected to be blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field Sunday.  Minnesota, 10-5 winners Friday, will also take advantage of this.  Per our computer math model, there will be plenty of runs scored in this Sunday match-up with a result similar to the first two games of the series.  The White Sox are starting Reynaldo Lopez here.  The righty particularly struggled against left-handed batters last season and it is likely that about half of the Twins lineup will step in on that side of the plate Sunday.  Remember that Friday's game - an explosion on offense for Minny - came against a right-handed starter.  Lopez had all sorts of trouble with the Twins last season (0-3, 9.60 ERA) and we expect more of the same here.  The icing on the cake for this match-up is that both bullpens have been used extensively already in this high-scoring series so, after these two starters get knocked out early (likely), each pen will be put in a tough spot as this game goes on.  Plus the White Sox really got to the Twins pen yesterday and Minny gave the Chicago pen trouble in Friday's game.  Bet the OVER in Chicago White Sox in early afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

Bet to No. 12 Ryan Blaney -135 over No. 18 Kyle Busch - Blaney led 150 laps in Texas last weekend and ran 86 of the fastest laps which were both race highs for the day. Unfortunately, a bit of bad luck late in the race cost him any chance of winning a race he dominated. If you’ve been watching the Cup races, then you know Blaney and the No. 12 have been one of the fastest cars in this 550-HP race package on 1.5 mile tracks. In the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks the No. 12 has been top six in fastest laps raced and laps led. Nobody has had more of the fastest laps in those four 1.5 mile races than Blaney. The No. 12 has 1 win this year at Talladega but could easily have 3 or four more wins with better late race strategies. In 10 Cup races on the Kansas Speedway Blaney has 5 Top 10’s and Top 5’s. Considering the No. 12 Ford Mustang for the Penske Team continues to be one of the fastest cars on the track each week we can’t afford to not have him on our betting slip. Kyle Busch is a fan favorite and continues garner unwarranted odds by the Sportsbooks. The No. 18 has not won this Cup season and is 8th overall in driver ratings and 10th in points. Kyle Busch is over-valued again based on past success but the reality is he hasn't won here since 2016. Blaney has had the better car and will finish higher than Busch here. 

Blaney and the No. 12 Ford Mustang for Team Penske has been outstanding on the 1.5-mile tracks in this race package. On similar tracks since the restart Blaney has a pair of 3rd place finishes at Charlotte, a 4th in Atlanta and a 6th place finish last weekend at Kentucky. It’s safe to say when a driver and car dominate on a particular track with a certain race package setup, they’ll be contenders every race. Blaney and the No. 12 have six straight top 5 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks. In his last four races here for Team Penske the No. 12 has a 5th, 2nd and 8th place finish in three of the four events. Blaney will be in the thick of it Sunday. Kyle Busch continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers with an O'fer season running in 17 races. With the added race Wednesday night, Busch has spent a ton of time behind the wheel and the heat of today's race will wear him down. Easy bet on Blaney who could easily win today's race outright.

We are expect a solid day from the Joe Gibbs racing team and there is no way we can’t have Denny Hamlin on our betting slip this Sunday. Hamlin was essentially in cruise control on his way to a win in Indianapolis last week before he blew his front right tire and hit the wall with 7 laps remaining. Hamlin and Harvick have been the best two drivers in recent weeks as they finished 1st and 2nd in both races at Pocono a few weeks ago, then looked like it was going to 1st and 2nd again last Sunday in Indy before the No. 11 hit the wall. Hamlin has not won a Cup race at Kentucky Speedway in 9 tries but he has 4 Top 5 finishes in his last eight races on this Intermediate oval. In the last three races nobody has more of the fastest laps run than Hamlin and his Toyota Camry with 63. Hamlin will be in the hunt again this Sunday and have one of the fastest cars in the field. Truex Jr. has won here twice in 2017 and 2018 but that was with a different race package. Last year in the new setup he finished 19th on this track. Truex Jr. and his new crew chief haven't been nearly as good as he was a year ago and is vastly overrated in this matchup. Easy bet on the red hot Hamlin and the No. 11. 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Avalanche versus New York Rangers, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

The Avalanche ran into a red hot Kings team that has been playing the role of spoiler and stifling teams.  That resulted in a 3-1 loss for Colorado at Los Angeles Monday but that ended a streak of 3 straight games that totaled at least 7 goals.  Per our computer math model, this total being set at 6 is offering substantial line value on the over because of the situation.  Colorado should bounce back in the offensive zone now that they are back home and facing a Rangers team playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  Also, New York should match the production of the Avalanche here as the Rangers come into this game having scored at least 4 goals in 3 straight games.  The Rangers are off a 4-2 win at Dallas.  While that game totaled 6 goals, the Rangers entered that contest with 8 of 10 games totaling 7 or more goals.  High-scoring games continue to be the norm for the Rangers in recent weeks and we see that trend continuing tonight as the Avalanche will be extra aggressive off a 3-1 loss.  Bet the OVER in Colorado in NHL early late night action Wednesday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech.  We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday.  This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season.  They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did.  UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated.  Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy.  Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury.  Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time.  Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists.  They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season.  UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange.  North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT.  They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome.  We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally.  Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one.  The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech).  They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer.  UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road.  Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here.  North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points - Fordham vs George Washington, Wed at 3:30 PM ET

These two teams have met twice this year and scored 115 & 113 points.  Those 2 meetings were at small home courts and this one is at a large NBA arena (Brooklyn Nets) which should cause even more problems for the offenses.  In their 2 games these teams made 18, 19, 20, and 22 field goals which is extremely low.  They combined to shoot just 37% and averaged only 52 field goal attempts per game.  That parallels what they’ve done this season as these teams simply don’t get many shots off (Fordham is 231st in FG attempt rate & GW is 253rd).  When they do get shots up they aren’t very accurate shooting teams.  Fordham is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation making only 37% (346th out of 351) and George Washington isn’t great hitting 43% (181st nationally).  Neither team gets to the FT line very often (Fordham is 342nd in FT attempt rate & GW is 263rd in that category) and when they do neither shoots above 70%.  Fordham’s defense is very good ranking 85th in defensive efficiency, 75th in defensive FG% and 54th in 3-point defense.  GW’s defense is a notch or two behind Fordham, however they have proven they can hold this bad Ram’s offense in check in their 2 meetings this season.  There are only 2 teams in the nation that score fewer points than Fordham who averages 58 PPG and away from home just 55 PPG.  The Colonials average only 65 PPG on the season (315th) and away from home just 61 PPG.  On top of all that, these are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country (331st & 276th) and add that to the poor shooting we expect and this one should be very low scoring.  Fordham is 10-19-1 to the UNDER this year while George Washington is 10-20-1 to the UNDER.  With the line set at GW -3, it suggests a final score of somewhere in the range of 63-60.  We don’t think either team reaches 60 in this game and well grab the UNDER here.    

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators money line (+) over Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Both these teams battling hard as they make a push for the playoffs.  However, only one team (the Predators) has been getting the job done.  Juuse Saaros, Nashville netminder, is coming off back to back shutouts in his last two starts and he has a 1.84 GAA and a sizzling hot .948 save percentage which has led the way to him winning 5 of his last 7 starts.  Overall, the Predators have won 8 of 13 games including key back to back games over the Stars which gives Nashville a ton of momentum heading into this game.  On the other hand, Montreal is falling apart.  The Canadiens are off back to back losses and have been defeated in 9 of their past 13 games.  Montreal has allowed 3 or more goals in 11 of 13 games.  The Predators Saros has allowed a total of just 10 goals in his last 6 starts!  The Canadiens Carey Price has allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Nashville has won 4 straight meetings with Montreal and outscored them 7-2 in last season's series sweep.  Of course home is priced into this line which is why get a very small price on a Predators team that would be a large favorite if they were the home team in this one.  With that being said, Montreal has won only 8 of its last 27 games on home ice so there is tremendous value in fading the Canadiens here.  Our computer math model also notes the recent power play struggles of the Habs and strong recent success for the Preds as being another key edge in what should be a road rout.  Bet Nashville on the money line in Tuesday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010.  This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year.  They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season.  We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason.  It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney.  New life for this team.  They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend.  UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining.  This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep.  Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January.  Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney.  Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th.  Both are back and healthy.  Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries.  This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season.  Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters.  Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to.  We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes.  This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday).  These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77.  The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road.  UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses.  Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road).  We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET

The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court.  This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay.  We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games.  That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63.  Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney.  We think that absolutely favors Green Bay.  They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team.  The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th.  They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight.  So plenty of rest between games while still playing.  NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd.  Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days.  Not ideal in our opinion.  These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9.  The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up.  They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th).  The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one.  UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season.  The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense.  They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting.  In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7.  In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference.  When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits.  The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now.  Take the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida Panthers money line (+) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Blues are in a back to back spot and off a shutout win on the road at Chicago in divisional action last night.  The scheduling advantage goes to a rested Panthers team in this one.  St Louis started Jake Allen in goal last night and he got the shutout win.  Jordan Binnington will get the start here and he is off a loss and allowed 3 goals in his most recent start.  That was the 2nd time in 4 starts that he has allowed 3 or more goals - he allowed 5 in the other one!  Binnington will be opposed by Florida's Chris Driedger in this one.  He has been fantastic in the crease since he returned from injury.  Driedger has allowed a total of just 3 goals in his 2 starts since coming back.  The Panthers were off yesterday and now Driedger and his teammates will look to build off Saturday's 4-1 win versus Montreal.  Florida has been playing well in their own zone and has allowed a total of only 7 goals in regulation time of their last 4 games.  The Blues have allowed 10 goals in regulation time of their last 3 home games.  Per our computer math model, the Panthers score the upset over the defending champs and get payback for getting swept by St Louis last season.  Bet Florida on the money line in Monday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago Blackhawks money line (+) over St Louis Blues, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET

The Blackhawks Corey Craword has been fantastic ever since the calendar hit 2020.  He has had one bad start in 18 starts and, ironically, it came at St Louis!  Now Crawford gets a shot at revenge on home ice against a Blues team that potted 6 goals against him last month.  In Crawford's other 17 starts in 2020 he has allowed a total of only 37 goals.  He has not allowed more than 3 goals in any of those 17 starts.  With him playing well between the pipes and Chicago coming off an upset loss to the Red Wings, this is the perfect spot in which to back the Blackhawks as a home dog.  St Louis also will be hungry here as they enter this game off a 4-2 loss at New Jersey.  However, the home ice and the revenge factor are keys in this game.  Chicago had won 4 in a row prior to the loss at Detroit and the Blackhawks simply ran into a hungry Original Six rival that got the best of them in a spoiler role in that game.  This situation is much different and the Blues loss to the Devils was their 10th road loss in their last 14 games away from home.  Per our computer math model, the road struggles continue here.  Bet Chicago on the money line in Sunday hockey action.

ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET

We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one.  In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament.  In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here.  The physical toll is just too much to overcome.  They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much.  Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games.  Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”.  Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes.  We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness.  Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired.  There is no way around that.  They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games.  After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game.  Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense.  The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s).  Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season.  The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo.  They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes.  Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State.  These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home.  The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot.  Lay it with Bradley.   

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

Carter Hart, barring any unforeseen circumstances, is the confirmed goalie for the Flyers tonight and that is a key.  Hart has been incredible on home ice all season long and did it again in Philadelphia's 4-1 win over the Hurricanes on Thursday.  Hart is 19-2-2 with a 1.64 GAA on home ice this season.  The Sabres counter with Carter Hutton.  Buffalo's Hutton has allowed 17 goals in his last 5 road starts.  He has been respectable in most starts but the Flyers Hart has been out of this world spectacular in his home starts.  Not only that but 14 of Philadelphia's last 15 wins have come by a multiple-goal margin.  That is why there is a comfort level here with laying the 1.5 goals on the Flyers and getting a plus money price (currently +120) back in return.  This is a suburb value on a 2 to 1 money line favorite that enters this game on an 8-game winning streak and generally always wins by 2 or more goals.  The Sabres have lost 5 straight games and each of the last 4 defeats have been by 2 or more goals.  Buffalo has gone 6 straight games without scoring more than 2 goals.  The Flyers have scored 4 or more goals in regulation time of all but 1 of their victories during this 8-game winning streak.  Per our computer math model, you can expect a home blowout in this one!  Laying the 1.5 goals with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET

We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home.  These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point.  Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss.  For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago.  Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game).  We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings.  The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58.  In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way!  The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year.  We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%.  They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once.  MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season.  Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points.  Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3.  Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play.  MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do.  This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits.

ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET

We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET

After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid.  Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington.  VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter.  There is a good chance both sit again tonight.  Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season.  They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples.  In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference).  Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league).  The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate.  The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally.  We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team.  Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch.  Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win.  This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here.  VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to.  In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games.  Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog.  With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one.

ASA play on: UNDER Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

This line has been bet down by 3-points already and we were waiting/hoping it would go back up before betting it, but it has leveled off at the current number so we’re playing now. These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now with the Kings winning 6 of their last seven while the 76ers have lost 3 of four. The Kings are doing it with a defense that has been substantially better in 5 of their last six game allowing 103, 94, 112, 101 and 100 points in those contests. They did allow 126 to Washington but the Wizards are one of the fastest paced and highest scoring teams in the NBA. On the season the Kings allow 1.111 points per possession but in their last five contests they are giving up just 1.076PPP which ranks them 8th in the NBA. Sacramento is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA ranking 26th in pace of play or 98.4 possessions per game. Offensively the Kings rank 20th on the season in offensive efficiency, and even though they’ve played better of late, they still rank 14th (slightly above average) in their last five games when it comes to OEFF. Philly is also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.9 possessions per game and without Ben Simmons pushing the ball for them they have slowed to 96.2 possessions per game. The 76ers have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the season and their current numbers are skewed drastically worse from playing both Los Angeles teams. Granted, it was a long time ago and the dynamics for both teams have changed significantly but when these two teams met in November they combined for just 188 total points. Our math models are projecting 214.5 total points in this contest.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN

Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out.  However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend.  Winning both would probably get them in.  Just a huge home stand for Memphis.  Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here.  The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on.  Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so.  In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry.  That simply almost never happens.  Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not.  Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight.  Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble.  The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday.  As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %.  They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier.  To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time.  Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc.  Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road.  The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Buffalo Sabres versus Pittsburgh Penguins, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Penguins finally are getting healthier again and it already paid off with a 7-3 win over Ottawa Tuesday.  Pittsburgh now seeks to avenge a 5-2 home loss to the Sabres less than two weeks ago.  Still fresh in their minds, that loss insures that the Penguins won't let up in this game either.  Even with a big lead the Pens will keep the hammer down.  Pittsburgh scored 5 goals in their last visit to Buffalo.  The Sabres are expected to start Jonas Johansson in this one.  The Buffalo netminder has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 starts and is still very inexperienced.  The 24 year old goalie has made only 4 NHL starts and is only up with the Sabres because of the Linus Ullmark injury.  The now-healthy Penguins will pepper him with shots in this one.  In Pittsburgh's crease tonight it will be Matt Murray.  The Pens netminder has allowed 14 goals in his last 4 starts.  In all 4 games Murray has allowed at least 3 goals.  With Johansson also consistently allowing at least 3 goals per start in his limited action it was not surprising to see that our computer math model is calling for each team to get to 3 goals in a game that should get to at least 4-3 tonight.  There have been only 3 unders in the Sabres last 11 games against teams with a winning record.  They are known for struggling in their D zone when facing top tier competition.  The over is 3-0 in Pittsburgh's last 3 games against Eastern Conference teams.  Bet the OVER in Buffalo in NHL early evening action Thursday 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vancouver Canucks versus Arizona Coyotes, Wednesday at 10:35 PM ET

13 of the Canucks last 15 games have totaled at least 6 goals.  The total in this game was set at 5.5 goals.  This is even with Vancouver being without their top goaltender, Jacob Markstrom.  The Coyotes have a tendency toward lower-scoring games but have exploded for 12 goals in the two victories they have had during their current 2-1 stretch entering this game.  Arizona is out for revenge after a 3-1 loss in their visit here in mid-January.  The Coyotes had scored an average of 4 goals in 4 games against the Canucks prior to that one.  Per our computer math model, each team shows high statistical probability for reaching the 3-goal mark in this one.  The Canucks O/U is 6-1 this season in home games with a total set at 5.5 goals.  Bet the OVER in Vancouver in NHL late night action Wednesday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET

We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games.  In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone.  Win your conference tourney and you’re in.  That’s not the case this week.  In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State).  KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58.  It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired.  Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game.  We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort.  With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play.  They have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play.  They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game.  Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward.  The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12).  This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation.  They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game.  Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12).  OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET

The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins money line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

This will be the Bruins final trip to Tampa Bay this season (these teams meet again in Boston Saturday).  The Bruins have been patiently waiting for this revenge game as they lost the first two games to the Lightning this season including their most recent match-up nearly 3 months ago here in Tampa.  This is a divisional match-up and Boston knows they need this game to maintain a solid position at the top of the Atlantic as well as to prove they can get beat their nemesis.  The Bolts knocked the Bruins out of the 2018 playoffs in the second round and Boston hasn't forgotten.  The Bruins enter this game playing some of their best hockey of the season in recent weeks.  There have been a couple hiccups along the way but Boston has won 13 of 16 games ahead of this divisional showdown.  The Bruins Tuukka Rask got back on track with a shutout against the Islanders in New York in his most recent start.  On the other hand, Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is struggling badly of late.  Vasilevskiy has allowed 22 goals in his last 5 starts!  The Lightning netminder has a poor .854 save percentage during this stretch and he will be facing a revenge-minded Bruins team that is sure to pepper him with shots in this one!  Another key in this game is that Steven Stamkos is out for the Bolts.  These factors are why Tampa Bay is such a small home favorite here and don't be fooled by the low money line on the home team.  Per our computer math model, the road team pulls away for a comfortable win here as Vasilevskiy's struggles continue and the Lightning lose for the 5th time in their past 6 games!  Bet Boston on the money line in Tuesday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night.  The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here.  Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington.  Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home.  We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did.  This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game.  They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding.  They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play.  One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed.  They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed.  Tonight they have nothing to play for.  The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts.  This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons.  Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here.  Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons.  They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013.  Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion.  Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense.  They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%.  The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games.  Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale.  This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers.  We like Georgia State here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Edmonton Oilers money line (+) over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Oilers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams.  The Predators use to be tough to beat at Nashville but that certainly hasn't been the case this season.  As a result, Nashville is truly over-priced here.  The Predators won 6 of their first 8 home games this season but they have since lost 15 of 25 on home ice!  The Oilers have lost their two most recent road games but have been a solid road team this season.  Edmonton had gone 18-12-2 on enemy ice before the back to back losses (one in a shootout).  The Predators have oushot the Oilers only once in the past 5 meetings between these clubs.  Per our computer math model, Edmonton will control puck possession and again have more shots on goal in this match-up.  Some of the recent losses for the Oilers were when Connor McDavid was out.  In games in which he has played, the Oilers have gone 12-4-2 the last 18.  Also, he has 4 goals and 8 assists in his last 10 games against the Predators.  Bet Edmonton on the money line in evening Monday hockey action.

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET

The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Minnesota Wild money line (+) over Washington Capitals, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET

Alex Stalock is expected to get the start for the Wild here. He has allowed 2 or less goals in 9 of his last 13 starts. Minnesota has been surging and that has them right back in the playoff race in the West. As for the Capitals, they are slumping badly and now have the Flyers nipping at their heels for the top spot in the Metro Division. Washington has lost 7 of 10 while the Wild have won 5 of 6. The Capitals have lost 4 straight road games and, per our computer math model, the slump for the road team continues here. Bet Minnesota on the money line in evening Sunday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech.  The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half.  The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles.  The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech.  Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense.  The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66.  A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today.  The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia.  It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year.  Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53.  VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3.  That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss.  They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits.  Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs.  We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation.  They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago.  The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9.  They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots.  It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG.  That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games.  The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke.  In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA.  Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG.  Lay it with Louisville. 

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET

We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Montreal Canadiens versus Carolina Hurricanes, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The Canadiens are expected to have Charlie Lindgren between the pipes.  He is Carey Price's back-up and has been used sparingly.  He has made 3 starts in 2020 and he allowed 4 goals in each of the 3 starts.  As bad as the Montreal goalie situation is for tonight, the Hurricanes situation is even worse.  Carolina recently lost both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer to injury in the same game.  That is why Anton Forsberg was called up from the minors and got the start in last night's loss to Colorado.  Now the Hurricanes options include using Forsberg again in a back to back spot (never easy) or turning to Alex Nedeljkovic.  Carolina's Nedeljkovic has made just 3 NHL starts in his career and in his only one this season (Tuesday) he allowed 4 goals.  The Hurricanes have lost 3 of 4 games and allowed 3.8 goals in those games.  The Canadiens have lost 7 of 9 games and allowed 3.7 goals per game (not including OT goals) in those 7 defeats.  Per our computer math model, this game totals 7 or 8 goals and it is posted at only 6 goals so this one easily gets the call for us.  Bet the OVER in Montreal in NHL early evening action Saturday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride.  Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season.  That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining.  They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC.  Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %.  They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast.  The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion.  They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road.   Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play.  Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6.  The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far.  The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games.  Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well.  If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale.  With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special.  On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday.  Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference.  Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here.  If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points.  They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%.  They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams.  That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%.  Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good.  While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games).  The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier.  When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites.  The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley.  It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe.  We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET

The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET

In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game.  From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss.  We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game.  State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11.  Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play.  Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney.  The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%.  He missed the last 2 games due to injury.  Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team.  Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession.  This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less.  This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places.  We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET

As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them.  You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that.  However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost.  Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State.  The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place.  If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit.  NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year.  In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77.  In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73.  Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury.  He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game.  His status is up in the air for Thursday.  South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.  Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot.  If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play.  Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET

The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game.  That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month.  Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG).  The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him.  Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts.  During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have.  Impressive run to say the least.  During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep.  Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable.  The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points.  The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late.  UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points.  We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much.  Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition.  40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league.  The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned.  Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games.  Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency).  That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here.  We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET

Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up.  They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8.  Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before.  The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points.  As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch.  They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season.  The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land.  That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home.  This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT.  Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win.  The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games.  With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. 

ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a fantastic situation.  Ottawa is playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  The Senators were involved in the only game on the NHL schedule last night as they lost at Columbus in OT.  It was another deflating loss for Ottawa and also their 20th defeat in their last 25 games!  While the Senators are wrapping up a miserable season, the Predators are in the middle of a sprint to the finish over the last six weeks of the regular season as they are very much alive in the playoff race.  Nashville has a big scheduling edge here as they were off both Sunday and Monday.  The Predators also have revenge here as they lost at Ottawa 5-4 in December.  With Marcus Hogberg having gotten the call against the Blue Jackets last night, Craig Anderson is expected to get the start in goal for the Senators tonight.  Anderson is 4-8-1 with a 3.57 GAA in his 15 road games (14 starts) this season.  The Predators will have a huge edge in goal whether they use Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros.  Both have been great recently and that is why Nashville has allowed only 2.5 goals per game in its last 11 games.  The Predators have averaged nearly 4 goals per game in their last 8 victories.  The Senators have averaged about 1.5 goals per game in their last 16 losses.  Based on the huge edges here it comes as no surprise that the Predators are a -330 favorite on the money line.  Where the value lies in a situation like this is the puck line and with Ottawa likely to be held to just 1 or 2 goals and the Predators likely to score 4 or more goals (see recent averages noted above), we have no hesitation in investing in the puck line (-1.5 goals) in this one.  Per our computer math model, this one is forecast to be a revenging home blowout Tuesday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Nashville is the value play here.

ASA’s play on: UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET

This the second meeting of the season for these two teams who met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect a playoff type atmosphere for this contest north of the border between two teams that feel they can win it all this season. The Raptors last thirteen games have been against a very soft schedule with only three of those games coming against a team with a winning record, and all three were against the Pacers. The last time the Raptors faced a team of the Bucks caliber was back on January 22nd against the 76ers and that game ended with 202 total points. The Bucks played an OT thriller last night against the Wizards but because of their depth, fatigue won’t be an issue tonight. The Bucks games have averaged 227 total points per game when Milwaukee is not rested. When these same two teams squared off earlier this season the posted total on the game was 227 and they combined for 220 total points. In fact, nine of the last ten meeting has resulted in 231 or less total points. These two teams are the two best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA as the Bucks allow just 1.021 points per possession and the Raptors give up just 1.042PPP. This game shapes up to be a very low scoring affair with a playoff like intensity. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Minnesota Wild money line (-) over St Louis Blues, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET

The Wild lost their first game on home ice after the coaching change but they then went on a quick 2-game road trip to western Canada and won both games.  Now, back on home ice again, Minnesota is hungry to give their new head coach his first home win.  The Wild are catching the Blues at the right time too.  St Louis is off a huge 5-1 win at Dallas Friday.  Prior to that road win, the Blues had lost 9 of their last 10 games away from home!  In other words, home ice absolutely does mean something here.  That plus the situational edge (Blues were in revenge mode against the Stars) has us siding with the home team here.  Per our computer math model, a dominating home win is on tap here as the Wild are now the team playing with revenge and they get payback tonight for having lost each of the first two meetings between these clubs this season.  Bet Minnesota on the money line in evening Sunday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them.  While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such.  Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree.  Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5.  The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State.  Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game.  A lucky might be an understatement.  MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5.  Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1).  The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them.  OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot.  When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12.  OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3.  They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe.  Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better.  At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s.  Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today.  The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home.  Ohio State is the play.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels.  However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home.  They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games.  They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou.  A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining.  Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home.  In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG.  All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play.  Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play.  They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road.  Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi  defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%.  If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here.  Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games.  We like Ole Miss to win and cover here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators money line (-) over Chicago Blackhawks, Friday at 8:35 PM ET

This is a classic case of hot versus not.  The Blackhawks have lost 7 of their past 8 games.  The Predators are off a loss but had won 7 of 10 games preceding that defeat.  Nashville was left for dead in terms of playoff picture as of a few weeks ago but they have battled all the way back and won't let one loss slow them down.  After a home loss to a desperate Carolina team, look for the Preds to bounce right back here.  Nashville has won 2 of 3 match-ups with the Blackhawks this season and those two wins came by a combined score of 8 to 2.  The Predators have won their last two visits to Chicago by a combined score of 9 to 5.  The Blackhawks have lost 5 of their last 7 home games.  The Preds have won 7 of their past 10 road games.  Per our computer math model, the home ice "edge" will play out as no "edge" in tonight's meeting so take advantage of the line value with the short road favorite.  Bet Nashville on the money line in late evening Friday hockey action.

ASA play on: OVER 229 Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET

Fresh players after the All-Star break led to a 5-1 Over trend last night in the NBA for teams playing their first game after the break. Tonight, the Suns and Raptors meet, and the situation warrants an Over wager on their game. These teams rank 12th and 13th in scoring this season with both averaging over 112PPG. The Raptors are 13th in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 17th. The Suns prefer to play fast with the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, the Raptors are also in the top half of the league with the 13th fastest tempo. The Suns defense has allowed 116 or more points in half of their last ten games and Toronto has scored 115 plus in 7 of their last ten. The Raptors last game before the break was a horrible offensive showing as they managed just 91-points in a loss to the Nets so expect a focused effort here.   In their last five games these teams are both shooting over an average of 48% which is well above league average of 45.9%. Let’s not forget the league average total points scored per game is 223PPG so asking two of the higher scoring, faster paced teams to scored 229 or more shouldn’t be a problem.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble.  Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State.  They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years.  They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin.  The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games.  He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard.  Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January.  The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play.  They are now 9-4.  Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12.  Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe.  The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record.  Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5.  So even their wins have come down to the wire.  The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14.  Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright.    

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET

We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Capitals Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Montreal Canadiens, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Capitals are angry off back to back losses.  Only once this season have the Caps lost when they entered a game off consecutive losses.  Since that lone 3-game losing streak this season, Washington is a perfect 5-0 when they enter a game off back to back losses.  Of course it is not surprising to find out then that the Capitals are a very large money line favorite here.  Where value lies is with the puck line.  By laying the 1.5 goals with the Caps we get plus money on the puck line in the +135 range.  Per our computer math model, this win will come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  The slumping Canadiens are off a loss at Detroit!  The Red Wings are the worst team in the league and the Habs let a 2-goal lead slip away in that one!  Montreal has lost 16 of their past 25 games and that includes 5 straight defeats entering this match-up at DC.  The Canadiens have allowed 4 goals per game in their last 10 defeats.  The Capitals have scored an average of 4.4 goals per game in their last 10 victories.  Look for the Caps to get to 4 or 5 goals here while Montreal - averaging just 2 goals per game in their last 7 games - continues to struggle to score goals. The final kicker is that the Capitals did lose at home to the Canadiens earlier this season.  They then got some revenge with a 4-2 win at Montreal in the next meeting but they still want payback for a rare home ice loss handed to them by the Habs here way back in November.  This one is forecast to be a home blowout Thursday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Washington is the value play here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Blues Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New Jersey Devils, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Devils are expected to start Louis Domingue here.  When Mackenzie Blackwood has started between the pipes New Jersey has been very competitive.  However, in Dominque's last 4 starts the Devils are 0-4 and he has allowed 14 goals in his last 3 starts!  St Louis allowed a late goal at Nashville Saturday and that was the deciding goal in a tough 2-1 loss.  The Blues need to snap their losing streak and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.  St Louis is facing a struggling goalie and they are on home ice and Jordan Binnington is expected to get the start in the crease for the Blues.  Binnington is 16-4-5 with a 2.29 GAA in his home starts this season.  Of course St Louis is a very price-heavy fave in this spot but we get around that by utilizing the puck line in this match-up.  The Blues must win by 2 or more goals but then there is no juice to lay in this match-up.  14 of the last 20 wins for St Louis have come by 2 or more goals.  20 of the Devils last 28 losses have come by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals with St Louis is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58.  It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100.  They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point.  Kent is on the opposite track.  After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games.  They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright!  EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC).  While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run.  During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots.  This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home.  Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Capitals money line (+) over Vegas Golden Knights, Monday at 6:05 PM ET

The Capitals are on the road here but have been playing great hockey overall away from home.  Additionally, Washington is off a loss and they are 8-0 the last 8 times they have entered a road game off a loss.  Suffice to say, we're happy to take the +120 underdog line value here with the Capitals sporting an 8-0 run when in this situation.  While it is true that Vegas enters this game off back to back home wins, both victories came by the slimmest of margins.  Also, this was preceded by an 0-4 run for the Golden Knights in home games and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of 2 goals per game.  The Knights have lost 7 of 11 games this season when they are off a game in which they held their opponent to 1 goal or less.  Including post-season action, the Capitals have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams.  Per our computer math model, that series dominance continues here in the form of a road rout.  Bet Washington on the money line in early evening Monday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Buffalo Sabres versus Toronto Maple Leafs, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

Jack Campbell has been playing well between the pipes for the Maple Leafs since they got him from Los Angeles.  However, the former Kings netminder was in between the pipes at Ottawa last night and that means Toronto will turn to Frederik Andersen in this back to back situation.  He only recently returned from a neck injury and, though he allowed "only" 3 goals versus Dallas, he faced only 19 shots.  Andersen giving up 3 goals only 19 shots is not a good sign.  In his last 4 road starts he has allowed an average of 3 goals per game but here he will face much more than 19 shots against a desperate Sabres team that is off consecutive wins and trying to make an upward trek through the standings.  Buffalo is well-rested here too and they will pepper Andersen with shots early and often in this one.  While Toronto was in action last night, the Sabres haven't played since Thursday, a 4-3 OT win versus Columbus.  That was the 4th time in 5 games that Buffalo has scored at least 3 goals.  The issue for the Sabres right now is in goal.  They are still without their #1 goalie, Linus Ullmark.  That has meant Carter Hutton has seen plenty of work but now even he is listed as questionable for playing in this one.  In fact the Sabres called up a goalie from the AHL in case they need another netminder for this one this evening.  The starter for Buffalo could be Jonas Johansson tonight and he has made just 2 NHL starts in his career.  The goalie Buffalo called up from Rochester is Andrew Hammond and he made only 5 NHL starts the past 3 seasons (and 0 last season).  The Sabres muddled goalie situation is particularly concerning when you consider that the Maple Leafs are one of the highest scoring teams in the league and enter this game having averaged 4 goals per game in their last 11 meetings with the Sabres.  Those match-ups have gone 8-3 to the over and, per our computer math model, the odds are very high in our favor that this one totals at least 7 or more once again!  Bet the OVER in Buffalo in NHL early evening action Sunday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET

The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game.  Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game.  They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State.  Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well.  In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road.  They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win.  They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak.  Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road.  They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern.  They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later.  Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points.  They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league.  The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here.  Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here.  The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row.  The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Avalanche versus Los Angeles Kings, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET

As we mentioned in our write-up on the over involving the most recent Los Angeles game, opponents will take advantage of a Kings team willing to take risks in their game as they're going for more speed in their game even if that leads to some odd man rushes going the other way on turnovers.  When you have the worst record in the Western Conference you're willing to take risk.  Los Angeles, even after the win versus the Flames Wednesday, has lost 10 of 12 games and the Kings have given up an average of 3.9 goals in their last 8 defeats.  This total is set at only 6 goals and offers strong value for the over.  The total is set low because Los Angeles has not scored well in recent weeks but their win (5 to 3) over the Flames Wednesday gives them some momentum heading into this outdoor game taking place in Colorado Springs Saturday.  The weather is confirmed to be ideal for this early evening game in Colorado and the Avalanche are ready to explode on the ice after a 3-2 home loss to Washington Thursday.  The Avalanche had scored an average of 4 goals per game in their 9 games preceding the loss to the Capitals.  3 of the last 5 games between these teams saw the winning team tally 7 goals.  Per our computer math model, these teams are certainly expected to at least combine for 7 goals here!  Bet the OVER in Colorado in NHL early evening action Saturday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET

This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion.  The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win.  Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th.  Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record.  Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well.  The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night.  Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas.  The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year).  It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game.  Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting.  This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year.  They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road.  They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference.  Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road.  They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots.  That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense.  This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well.  They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team.  Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league.  The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12).  However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally).  Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards.  Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season.  We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance.  This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned).  Double digit win here for Baylor.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense.  They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points.  UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points.  They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks.  On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington.  That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300.  Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference.  They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games.  UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT.  That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season.  Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA.  The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

#644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season.  After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11.  Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one.  That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer.  After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter.  He is back and ready to go tonight.  Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road.  Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss.  Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock.  The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here.  In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy).  The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team.  They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt.  The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference.  These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR.  Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home.  In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68.   Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire.  Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season.  We like Texas State to roll in this game.

ASA 10* play UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics 8PM ET

At the very root of the numbers today are two season averages that don’t add up to this Total set by Vegas on this game. The Clippers and opponents have averaged 225PPG this season while the Celtics and their foes have averaged 218PPG. The Clippers are 6th in pace of play at home but do play slower when on the road. The Celtics are 19th in the league in pace of play and prefer a slower tempo when at home. What we can count on for sure here is defensive intensity from both teams as the Celtics rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, the Clippers rank 6th and both allow less than 110PPG. Consider this, the Celtics just played the 2nd fastest pace and 2nd highest scoring team in the league in Houston and the O/U was only 5-points higher than this number and the teams combined for 221 total points. The Clippers just faced the 76ers who are similar to the Celtics in style of play and that game finished with 213 total points. When these same two teams met earlier this season the Total set on the game was 217 and they combined for just 211 in OT. We don’t see this game topping 220 total points. Bet UNDER!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Arizona Coyotes money line (-) over Ottawa Senators, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Coyotes have struggled but they have played much better in their last two games and had the game winning OT goal taken away in their OT loss at Toronto Tuesday.  Suffice to say, Arizona will be ready to go as they continue to fight to move up the standings in their quest for a playoff spot.  The Coyotes feel cheated that they didn't get the full two points against the Maple Leafs.  While Arizona was already in Canada on Tuesday, the struggling Senators were south and west in Colorado getting pounded by the Avalanche in a 3-0 loss.  Ottawa has now lost 16 of 18 games.  As a result, we see huge line value here with the Coyotes as a small road favorite.  Per our computer math model, Arizona will earn the lions share of the quality scoring chances in this game.  The Coyotes have picked up at a least a point in the standings in 5 of their past 7 games.  Arizona has averaged 2.6 goals per game in their last 5 games while the Sens have averaged scoring only 1.2 goals per game in their last 5 games.  Ottawa has lost 10 of its past 11 home games.  The Coyotes roll to a road win here.  Bet Arizona on the money line in early evening Thursday hockey action.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Kings versus Calgary Flames, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

The Flames are off back to back 6-2 wins and should keep rolling at Los Angeles tonight.  The Kings are wanting to get a little more speed in their game and, though that hasn't translated to many goals yet, there could be a breakthrough tonight now that they are back on home ice after a road trip back east.  LA will take advantage of a Flames team that has allowed an average of 3.8 goals per game in regulation time of its 8 games since mid-January.  Calgary has scored an average of 5 goals per game in its last 3 road games and will take advantage of a Kings team willing to take risks in its game as they're going for more speed in their game even if that leads to some odd man rushes going the other way on turnovers.  When you have the worst record in the Western Conference you're willing to take risk.  Los Angeles has lost 10 of 11 games and the Kings have given up an average of 3.9 goals in their last 8 defeats.  This total is set at only 5.5 goals and offers strong value for the over.  The total is set low because Los Angeles has not scored well in recent weeks but they're going to take advantage of the Flames D-zone in a clear let-down spot after back to back dominating road wins by a count of 6-2 each in their last two games.  Not only is the over 3-1 in he last 4 meetings between these teams but those 3 games all totaled 7 or more goals.  Per our computer math model, a similar result of 7 goals is expected here and we only need 6 to end up with a winning ticket!  We'll take it!  Bet the OVER in Los Angeles in NHL late night action Wednesday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These 2 are trending in opposite directions.  After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points.  Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month.  Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton.  That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8.  Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep.  They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less.  Butler’s defense is headed south.  For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP.  However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference.  For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play.  The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG.  In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential.  This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points.  Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET

You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year.  Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results.  We’ve reached that point tonight.  UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP.  It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high.  Even with that they had a shot to win.  That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense.  It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight.  Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games).  On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend.  The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league.  Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one.  With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover.