Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-07-22 | A's v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta -1.5 on Run Line over Oakland, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta comes home off a red hot run @ Colorado sweeping the Rockies in a 4 games series and outscoring them 30-16. Oakland, on the other hand, has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their bats continue to struggle scoring 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. Those numbers won’t improve vs Atlanta’s Kyle Wright who has allowed 1 ER or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wright has an ERA of 2.41 and is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of just .191. Not one hitter on Oakland’s roster as ever faced Wright giving him a big advantage in this game. While Oakland bats are ice cold, Atlanta’s hitters have been on a roll with a batting average of .280 scoring an average of 5.7 RPG over their last 10. They have been very solid vs lefties all season long averaging 5.2 RPG. They are facing left hander Irvin in this game and while his overall numbers look solid, he is due for a regression. Irvin’s ERA is 2.96, however his xERA is 5.06 and his xFIP is 4.39 which gives us an indication of how he’s actually pitching. His numbers on the road haven’t been anywhere near his home numbers with an ERA of 5.09 away from home this season. While Oakland’s current roster has never faced Wright, Atlanta’s roster has had huge success vs Irvin with a whopping .588 batting average in his career. We’re also backed up by the much better bullpen in this game (6th in ERA compared to Oakland 20th in ERA). We have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much hotter hitting team in this game. We’ll lay the 1.5 runs at -115. |
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06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle vs Houston, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - These 2 A.L. West teams have already met 9 times with 6 going Under the total. Only once have they played a game this season that scored more than 9 runs and in 6 of the 9 meetings they’ve scored 7 or less. Their 9 meetings this season have averaged 6.3 total RPG. Javier is on the mound for Houston and he’s been lights out. In his 6 starts he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 5 and 1 ER or less 4 times. He completely shut down Seattle the only time he faced them this season not allowing a single ER in a Houston 4-0 win. His ERA at home this season is 0.38 with a WHIP of 0.72! The M’s counter with veteran Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young award with Toronto last season, but he’s been up and down this year. However , he has allowed 4 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and he has not faced Houston this season which is an advantage to him. On top of that, the Astros have really struggled vs left handed pitchers this year hitting just .212 while averaging only 2.9 runs per 9 innings. Houston has been a massive UNDER team this year with 39 Unders and just 15 Overs. Their bats aren’t great (21st in RPG) especially vs lefties as we mentioned but their pitching staff has been outstanding. They are 3rd overall in team ERA and they have the #1 bullpen in MLB with a 2.64 ERA. Dating back to the end of last season, Houston is now 45-16 to the UNDER! Seattle has a poor road record and they’ve struggled offensively away from home with a .225 batting average and 3.6 RPG. Seattle road games have averaged just barely 8 total RPG while Houston home games have averaged 6.4 total RPG. Over the last 10 games, Seattle is averaging less than 8 total RPG and Houston is averaging less than 7 total RPG. We look for another low scoring game tonight. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - We are betting Under in Game 2. The Celtics made 13.3 3-pointers per game during the regular season and then exploded for 21 in Game 1. Overall, the Celtics shot 51% for the game and scored 40 points in the 4th quarter alone. We expect a regression in Game 2 and a trend back to the norm. Boston was 15th in the league in team field goal percentage at 46.6% and 14th in 3PT% ranking 14th. We certainly don’t see them shooting as well in Game 2 considering the Warriors were 2nd in team FG% defense at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% at 33.9%. Golden State was 39 of 88 from the field overall (44%) and 19 of 45 from Deep or 42%. Boston is going to make some defensive adjustments and do a better job of defending Curry who started red-hot in Game 1 before coach Kerr sat him for an extended amount of time in the 2nd quarter to cool him off. Let’s not forget, the Celtics allow the least number of points in the league, have the best field goal percentage defense and rank 1st defending the 3-point line. These two teams ranked 1st and 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.070-points per possession. This game is going to be a dog fight and we expect both teams to ratchet up their defensive intensity. Bet Under. |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
#41/42 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals +110 - New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The set-up here is ideal to expect plenty of goals. Lightning are down 2-0 in this series and need to respond on home ice. Trouble is they have had a very hard time stopping a relentless Rangers team that continues to pile up goals. Look for TB to join the goal-scoring party in this one. The Bolts most recent home game was a 2-0 win but each of their first 4 home playoff games before that one totaled at least 6 goals. The Lightning have averaged 4.3 goals in regulation time in their last 4 home games. Here they host the Rangers and it is essentially a do or die game as Tampa can not afford to go down 3 games to 0 in this series. Off back to back losses, Tampa Bay responds here. The Bolts are 3-1 and have averaged 4.3 goals in regulation time in this post-season when they are entering a game off a loss. So TB bounces back here and should be a solid win, right? Not so fast! The reason the play here is the over (rather than Tampa) is because there certainly is support for expecting the Bolts to come up big in the offensive zone but, at the same time, continuing to struggle to slow down a Rangers club playing with a ton of confidence. New York has scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in the 6 wins in their current 6-1 hot streak. The Rangers also have won 6 of last 7 against the Lightning. Game 2 fell just short of an over but the prior game totaled 8 goals and we should easily get to at least 6 here. Rangers goalie Shesterkin has a higher GAA on the road than at home and Lightning goalie Vasilevskiy has not been his typical consistent dominant self so far in this post-season. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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06-05-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
#926 ASA PLAY ON Texas -125 over Seattle, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - Texas starting pitcher Martin Perez has been one of the top pitchers in MLB this season. His ERA is 1.42 and he has not allowed a single HR in 10 starts. After allowing 3 ER’s in each of his first 2 starts back in mid April, Perez has allowed only 4 ER’s in his last 8 starts! He faces a Seattle team that has a record of 11-20 on the road this season and getting outscored by 1 RPG. The M’s have struggled vs left handers especially on the road where they have a batting average of .198 and Perez is allowing opponents to hit just .199 this season. Not a good mix for Seattle. George Kirby has been solid in his first season in the Majors but he’s only pitched 26 career innings. He was very good in his last outing vs light hitting Baltimore but his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 9 ER’s on 16 hits in 10 innings of work. Opponents are hitting a solid .260 vs Kirby and his xERA is higher than his actual ERA. Seattle has the 8th worst bullpen ERA in the Majors while Texas, after a rough start to the season for their relievers, has moved all the way up to 10th in bullpen ERA. Big advantage for Texas pitchers today. The Rangers are playing solid baseball right now winning 7 of their last 11 while Seattle has won only 6 of their last 24 games as a road underdog. Texas gets the win at home. |
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06-04-22 | Nationals v. Reds -124 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -125 over Washington, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Washington picked up the win here last night and we like Cincy to come out on top at home on Saturday afternoon. The Reds have actually played quite well since their start of the season debacle. They began the season winning just 3 of their first 25 games, however since then they have a winning record at 15-11 their last 26 games. They are 9-6 at home during that stretch. The Reds send Mahle to the hill and he is pitching better than he gets credit for. His ERA is 5.53 but his xFIP is 4.28 and his xERA is just 3.63 telling us he’s been unlucky at times this season. He’s actually allowed 2 ER’s or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and he was one of Cincy’s top starters last year with a 3.75 ERA. Lifetime vs hitters currently on Washington’s roster, Mahle has allowed a batting average of just .196. Washington is 10-17 on the road this year and they have not won back to back road games all season! Fedde hits the hill for the Nats and his ERA is 4.60 which is exactly where his xERA sits as well. His WHIP is 1.53 and he’s had trouble with walks (4.5 per 9 innings) and HR’s (1.2 per 9) this season. He’s had big problems with players currently on the Cincinnati roster as they’ve hit .400 lifetime vs Fedde. He’s backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the league, especially on the road where Washington relievers have an ERA of 6.63. While Cincinnati has turned around their season, the Nationals continue to struggle with a 22-47 record their last 60 road games and 7-25 record their last 32 games after a win. The Reds get the home win on Saturday afternoon. |
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06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 on the Run Line over Minnesota, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - There isn’t a hotter offensive team in MLB than Toronto right now and they are facing a Minnesota team that is decimated due to injuries and Covid restrictions. The Jays have won 8 straight games and their offense has put up at least 6 runs in all but one of those games. During that 8 game stretch they are averaging 7 RPG and they’ve done some serious damage vs a number of top notch starting pitchers. This team overall probably isn’t quite as good as their 30-20 record as their run differential isn’t great, however they are red hot right now. As we mentioned they are also facing a Minnesota team that is nowhere near 100% and struggling right now. Two of Minnesota’s better offensive players, Correa and Celestino are out due to Covid. Royce Lewis, hitting .300, just came back from a 12 day hiatus due to injury and had to go right back on the IL so he is not available. Now we add in a number of other key players due to Canada’s Covid policy that players must be vaccinated to enter the country. That takes out starting OF Kepler and 3 pitchers that work out of the Minnesota bullpen all unavailable for this series. The Twins come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games @ Detroit, one of the worst teams in MLB, and Minnesota scored only 2 total runs in their last 3 games vs the Tigers. The Twins have won just 3 of their last 10 games and all 10 of those games were vs KC or Detroit who have a combined record of 37-63! In fact, in a weird scheduling situation, the Twins have faced either Detroit or KC in 15 straight games and prior to that they faced Oakland. So Minnesota has played 18 straight games vs the 3 teams who have the worst records in the American League and they are just 10-8 in those games. They take a big step up in competition here and are facing a solid starting pitcher. Toronto will go with left hander Kikuchi on the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his 9 starts. The Minnesota offense is hitting .167 over their last 10 games vs lefties while averaging less than 1 run per 9 innings. The Twins pulled up Chi Chi Gonzalez from the Minors to make his first MLB appearance this season. He has pitched some at the MLB level but not successfully as his ERA’s over the last 3 seasons were 6.46, 6.86, and 5.29. Now facing a red hot offense we expect him to have problems in this game. Toronto is rolling right now, they are 17-8 at home this season, and Minnesota has too many key players out to hang in this one. We’ll take Toronto at -1.5 on the run line at even money |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener. |
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06-02-22 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – San Diego vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - The Padres are struggling to put runs on the board right now. They are coming off a 3 games series in St Louis where they scored a total of 7 runs. They have not topped 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. Going back further San Diego has topped 4 runs just 2 times in their last 15 games! In their last 8 games the Under is 6-0-2. They’ll be facing Adrian Houser for Milwaukee who just shut them down in San Diego last week allowing 1 ER in 6 innings. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole has been great at home this year allowing only 3 RPG. The Brewers have been solid offensively this season, however their kryptonite has been left handed pitchers. For the season they are hitting just .209 vs south paws while averaging 3.7 RPG. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee has hit just .162 vs lefties. They face a good one tonight in Sean Manaea. His overall ERA is 4.02 but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA and xFIP right around 3.50. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his 9 stars and the current Brewer roster has a total of 14 career plate appearances vs Manaea giving him an extra edge here. These 2 just met in San Diego last week in a low scoring series with games totaling 3, 5, and 5 runs. The 2 teams were only able to muster 39 hits combined in 3 games, or just 13 per game. Dating back to last year, 9 of the last 10 meetings have totaled 8 or fewer runs. We like the UNDER tonight in Milwaukee. |
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06-01-22 | Marlins v. Rockies -110 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado -120 over Miami, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET – GAME 2 of a Double Header - Colorado took the series opener on Monday by a final score of 7-1. Miami lost that game decisively with their ace Lopez on the mound and they’ve now won just 2 of their last 10 games. Offense has been a big problem as the Marlins have failed to score more than 4 runs in any of their last 10 games. Even yesterday vs an inexperienced starter for Colorado (Feltner) making his first start at home this season, Miami was only able to score 1 run on 5 hits. On the road this year they have a record of just 9-14 with a batting average of .223 while averaging only 3.5 RPG. They face a pitcher with a high ERA today but the Rockies German Marquez is a veteran whose overall numbers indicate he’s pitching better than his ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP (3.85) are much lower than his overall ERA (6.20) and he’s been very unlucky this season with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .350. He’s been one of the Rockies most consistent starters over the last 5 seasons and current players on the Miami roster are hitting just .216 lifetime vs Marquez. We’ve been looking for a spot to jump on this underrated starter and we feel this is it. Miami hasn’t decided on a starter but we expect Cabrera will be on the mound for the first time this season. He’s made only 7 lifetime appearances in the big leagues and his ERA is nearly 6.00 in those games. His overall ERA is the Minor leagues for his career is a pretty average 4.20. Even if Cabrera doesn’t start we’re good with the Rockies who just get it done at home. They have a batting average of .279 at home this season while averaging 6.4 RPG. The Rockies have twice as many wins at home this season (14) as they do on the road (7) and they’ve topped Miami 7 straight times in Denver. Cabrera will be making his first ever start in the Colorado high altitude and we look for him to struggle. We’re getting a low money line price in our opinion here so we’ll grab Colorado in the -120 range. |
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05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Arizona, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the mound this evening. He’s been lights out all season long with the exception of one outing, his most recent start. He gave up 6 ER’s in just 5 innings of work last week vs KC but prior to that he had allowed 2 ER’s or less in every start (7 starts). Good pitchers bounce back from poor outings and we look for Gallen to pitch very well tonight. Opposing hitters have a batting average of just .170 vs Gallen and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.83. He has faced current Atlanta hitters in 22 total plate appearances so most have not seen him. In those 22 AB’s he has not allowed a hit. He’s facing a light hitting Braves team with a BA of just .232 on the season (22nd in MLB) but on the road Atlanta hits just .212 this season. The Braves will go with a “bullpen game” here starting reliever Spencer Strider. They hope to get 3 or 4 innings out of him and if so they should be in good shape. Strider has been fantastic out of the bullpen this year allowing just 14 hits in 25 innings pitched and 6 ER’s. None of the Arizona hitters have ever faced Strider so he should have a big time advantage the first time through the line up. After he exits, Atlanta has a solid bullpen ranking 10th in ERA, 9th in WHIP and 4th in HR’s allowed. The DBacks offense continues to sit near the bottom of the Majors in RPG (24th) and batting average (29th). They are coming off a 4 game series vs LA Dodgers in which they scored a total of 8 runs. Arizona’s home games are averaging less than 8 total RPG this season and Atlanta’s road games are also averaging less than 8 RPG. We like the UNDER on Monday night. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here. |
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05-29-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -125 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Angels -125 over Toronto, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Toronto has won the first 3 games of this series in LA and we like the Angels to stop the potential sweep today. LA has been the better team all season long. Even with the 3 straight losses, the Angels are 27-21 with a run differential of +43 which is the 2nd best in the American League behind the Yankees. The Jays are 26-20, but they do have a losing record on the road and they have actually been outscored this season by 2 runs. They are the ONLY team in MLB that has a winning record with a negative run differential so they’ve been quite fortunate. Toronto will be facing left hander Sandoval today for the Angels who has been very solid all season long. He has an ERA of 1.79 and he has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his 7 starts. At home Sandoval is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.00. The Blue Jays have struggled vs lefties this season averaging just 3.4 RPG and on the road vs southpaws they have put up only 2.5 RPG on the season. LA has actually outhit Toronto in the first 3 games of this series despite losing all 3 and we look for their bats to put up big numbers today. They’ll be facing Toronto starter Berrios who has an ERA of 4.75 but on the road he’s really had problems with an ERA of almost 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.48. He’s coming off a solid start at home vs Seattle, however in his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 11 ER’s in just 10 innings, both on the road. He’s also struggled vs the hitters on LA as they have a lifetime batting average over .300 vs Berrios. The Angels rank in the top 9 in MLB in RPG (6th), batting average (9th), OPS (2nd) and HR’s per 9 innings (2nd). Ohtani was also back in the LA line up yesterday after missing Friday with a sore back. The Jays rank 25th in RPG and 18th in both batting average and OPS. The Angels also have an edge across the board in all key bullpen stats. This one sets up very nicely for the motivated home team looking to avoid a sweep. |
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05-28-22 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Pittsburgh vs San Diego, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these offenses have been below average all season long and both are struggling as we speak. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in RPG, 27th in batting average and OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. San Diego sits at the middle of the pack (15th) in runs scored but that doesn’t match up with their other key stats so they’ve been a bit lucky in that regard. The Padres are 23rd in both batting average and OPS and 27th in HR’s per 9 innings. Over their last 10 games Pittsburgh is averaging 3 RPG and San Diego is putting up just 3.3 RPG. The Pirates have topped 4 runs only ONCE in their last 14 games and they are averaging just 2.5 RPG during that stretch and that includes a 10 run output vs Colorado. San Diego has topped 3 runs only 3 times in their last 10 games. San Diego sends their ace to the mound today. Joe Musgrove has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his 8 starts this season and opponents are hitting just .208 against him. At home this year his ERA is 1.80 with a WHIP of 0.75. He always brings some extra juice vs the Pirates who traded him to the Padres in 2021. In his only meeting with Pittsburgh this season, Musgrove allowed 1 ER in 7 innings of work. JT Brubaker is on the hill for Pittsburgh. His overall numbers are better than his 4.64 ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP are both lower than his ERA and he's allowing opponents to hit just .222. In his last 7 starts Brubaker has allowed more than 3 ER’s just once and he’s coming off his most impressive outing of the season holding Colorado to 0 ER’s in 6.2 innings. Last night these 2 totaled 7 runs but did so on just 11 hits. Tonight we see a pitcher’s duel and this one stays UNDER the total. |
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05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#977 ASA 9* TOP PLAY ON Houston -1.5 on Run Line over Seattle, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is -200 at most places in this one and by laying -1.5 runs we can knock that down to -120. Seattle is struggling right now to say the least. They have lost 6 straight games and 8 of their last 9. They have been outscored by 19 runs over their last 6 games or an average of -3.2 RPG. They were just swept at home in a 2 game series vs Oakland who has a 19-28 record on the season and they were outhit 21 to 9 in those 2 games. Now they face one of the top pitchers in MLB in Justin Verlander so we don’t expect their offense to catch fire here. Verlander has allowed just 7 ER’s in 8 starts this season and over his last 3 starts he has not allowed a single ER in 19 innings of work. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.72 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .129 vs Verlander. He’s faced Seattle twice this season and the Astros have won those 2 games by a combined score of 11-2. In those 2 starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s in 14.2 innings with 11 K’s and no walks. Flexen is on the mound for Seattle and his numbers aren’t great this season. His ERA is almost 5.00 and opposing teams have a batting average of .275 when he is pitching. While Verlander is peaking right now, Flexen has struggled his last 3 starts allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings. He has made 8 starts this year and Seattle has won 1 of those games. When the 2 starters exit, Houston has a huge edge in the bullpen leading MLB in ERA while Seattle is 25th. Houston is 4-2 this year vs Seattle and in their most recent series in early May, the Astros outscored the M’s 14-2 in 3 games. Seattle has a -29 run differential on the season while Houston sits at +47 (3rd in MLB behind Dodgers and Yankees). We like Houston to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-27-22 | Blue Jays -117 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toronto -115 over LA Angels, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Toronto picked up the win here last night topping the Angels 6-3. That’s 6 wins in the last 9 games for the Jays and we like them to get another one tonight. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but we expect them to have success tonight vs Silseth, a rookie starter making just his 3rd appearance in the Majors. He’s started 2 games thus far, both vs Oakland whose offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in a number of key categories. He didn’t allow a run in the first game and then the A’s got to him with 3 ER’s in just 4.1 innings last week. Silseth allowed 8 baserunners in that game. Prior to his 2 starts vs Oakland, he had never pitched above AA level and had pretty average numbers including in college where his ERA 4.35 and 5.55 in his 2 seasons at Tennessee and Arizona. The Blue Jays should have a solid edge on the mound with Manoah who has a 1.62 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his starts this year and has walked just 5 batters in his last 7 starts. He had an ERA of just 3.22 in his 20 starts last year so Manoah has been very consistent. LAA has struggled offensively as of late averaging a full 1 RPG less over their last 10 compared to their season average. They have won just 3 of their last 9 games and could be without one of their top offensive performers tonight as Ohtani injured his back pitching last night. The bullpen numbers of these 2 teams are fairly even for the season, however Toronto relievers have been much better of late with an ERA of 3.00 and a batting average allowed of .195 over their last 10 games compared to the Angels 5.08 ERA and .250 BA allowed. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 201.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 201.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - VALUE! The two other games played in Boston in this series had Over/Under numbers of 208 and 206 so you can see the value we are getting here. Three of the five games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The two games that didn’t go Over the number were Games 4 &5 which both featured horrendous shooting nights at 33% & 32% by Miami, which are both well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). The Heat are the #1 or best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season, yet are coming off a game in which they made just 7 of 45 3-point attempts or 16%. That clearly is an aberration and can’t continue. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics shot just 40% in Game 4 at home but bounced back with a 46% night in Game 5 in Miami. We like that trend to continue here at home in this elimination game. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 165 in Game 5 and 168, 162, 170 and 169 in the previous games of this series. Boston’s home games have averaged 213PPG this season, Miami’s road contests have averaged 213.1PPG. Grab the value and bet OVER! |
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05-27-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +155) over St Louis Blues, Friday at 8:05 PM ET - This Avalanche team that blew a 3-0 lead and lost Game 5 on home ice will bounce back here. That is the kind of loss strong teams bounce back from and certainly the Avs are the much stronger team in terms of how they match up with St Louis. The Avalanche, prior to the Game 5 loss, had won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, 8 of last 10 Colorado wins in this series have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. In all games, 9 of last 11 Avalanche wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. Colorado had won 7 of 8 playoff games in this post-season before the Game 5 loss and are set up well for a big bounce back here at a solid comeback price on the puck line with laying the 1.5 goals. The road team has won 4 straight meetings and 8 of the last 10 between these teams and the strong trend away from home ice continues here. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Colorado at plus money (currently +155 range) is a big value play here. |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This is another closeout game for the Warriors who lead this series 3-1 and are at home with one of the best defenses in the NBA. This series has been a classic Zig-Zag when it comes to the Over-Under with Game 1 staying Under, 2 going Over etc…Dallas has been a poor shooting team all season long ranking 18th in overall team FG% at 46.1% and 19th in 3-point% at 35%. They had shot poorly in this series until Game 4 at home in Dallas when they hit 50% from the field and 47% from Deep. We don’t expect that to happen again against this Warriors defense that 3rd in points allowed per game, 2nd in defensive field goal percentage allowed and 34rd in 3PT% defense. The Mavericks have been a great defensive team all season too ranking 6th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.094PPP and giving up just 104.7PPG. Dallas also holds the 4th ranked 3PT% defense in the league allowing 34%. The Mavs made some offensive adjustments in Game 3 which improved their offense against the Warriors zone defense, so now expect Golden State to make another adjustment to counter the Mavs. This one stays Under! |
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05-26-22 | Guardians v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Cleveland vs Detroit, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - Weather is not looking conducive for scoring in this one. Light rain and 10+ MPH winds blowing in from center field. Detroit’s offense has been poor all season ranking dead last in RPG and OPS. The Tigers are averaging just 2.8 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Cleveland has OK overall offensive numbers but over their last 10 games they are hitting just .199 as a team and on the road vs lefties just .193 for the season. They’ll be facing one of the top left handers in MLB tonight in Tarik Skubal. He has allowed just 7 ER’s over his last 7 starts and in 5 of those starts he has held his opponent scoreless. He faced Cleveland on May 20th and held the Indians scoreless through 5 innings before leaving after taking a line drive off his lower leg. He is fine and will make the start tonight. Cleveland will be going with a “bullpen” game tonight. They will start lefty Pilkington but we only expect a few innings from him. He’s been solid in his first year in the Majors with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.04 mainly out of the bullpen. Nobody in Detroit’s line up has ever faced him giving Pilkington a nice edge early in the game and with an early exit expected we don’t anticipate the Tiger hitters facing him more than once or twice in this one. After he exits, Detroit’s bullpen has very good numbers. They rank 2nd in ERA in MLB and 2nd in WHIP so we expect Cleveland’s offense to continue their struggles. The Tigers are 29-13 to the UNDER this season and we expect another low scoring game tonight. |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 203.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - Three of the four games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The only game that didn’t go Over the number was Game 4 in Boston when the Heat had a horrendous shooting night at 33% which is well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). With Miami coming back home tonight we expect a much better shooting performance. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics put up 102 points in the most recent game but they basically coasted in the second half, scoring 45-points after putting up 57 in the first half. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 168 in Game 4, 162, 170 and 169. Based on those FGA’s, shooting percentages this game should result with a minimum of 214 total points. The Heat home playoff games have averaged 213.25 total points. Bet Over |
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05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
pitchers with action: #958 ASA PLAY ON San Diego -130 over Milwaukee, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series but the Padres have outhit the Brewers in both games. In last night’s 4-1 loss to Milwaukee, the Brewers managed 4 runs on just 5 hits while San Diego had 8 hits. We expect the Brewers to struggle to find hits again this afternoon with the Padres sending Yu Darvish to the mound. He’s been fantastic at home this year with a 2-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. He’s allowed only 13 baserunners at home this year in 20 innings of work. His lifetime ERA at Petco Park is just 3.12 and he averages 11 K’s per game at home per 9 innings. San Diego had to face Milwaukee ace and Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes yesterday. They actually fared quite well with 7 baserunners in 6 innings. Today they face lefty Ashby who is mainly a reliever and gets a few starts now and then. He has much better lifetime numbers out of the bullpen compared to when he starts (3.60 ERA to 4.60 ERA). On top of that, the Padres have been very successful vs left handers this season averaging 5.5 RPG, a full 1 RPG more than vs right handed pitchers. Once the starters exit the Padres have the better bullpen numbers overall with an ERA close to even with Milwaukee but a lower WHIP, opponent batting average, and opponent OB percentage. That edge gets even greater with Brewer closer Hader not available in this series. Take San Diego at home this afternoon. |
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05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Laying -1.5 runs here knocks the money line down to about even money. Arizona throws their ace Zac Gallen vs the light hitting Royals tonight. Gallen has been fantastic all season and we just don’t see KC’s offense doing much of anything tonight. Gallen has allowed just 5 ER’s all season in 7 starts for an ERA of 1.14. He’s been even better at home allowing 2 ER’s in 24 innings for an ERA of 0.75. The Royals offense has struggled ranking 24th in runs scored per game and their run differential of -60 is the worst in the American League. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 6 of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. Arizona’s offensive numbers for the season are not impressive due to a terrible start to the season at the plate. They’ve looked much better as of late averaging over 5 RPG through their last 10 games. They’ve hit .270 and scored nearly 7 RPG during that 10 game stretch vs right handed pitchers. Tonight they face righty Johnathan Heasley who has been a career minor leaguer for the most part. He has a total of 23 IP in the Majors in his 5 year career. This season he has pitched 8.1 innings, walked 7 batters and allowed 15 base runners. The Royals lost both of his starts this year by a combined score of 6 to 1. He has an ERA this season of 4.32 but he’s been rather lucky has his xERA is above 6.00. If Heasley has a short stint tonight, the KC bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the Majors in ERA and over their last 10 games the relievers have an ERA of almost 7.00. We like Arizona’s offense to have success tonight while KC will struggle to put numbers up vs one of the top starters in MLB. We’ll lay 1.5 runs in this one. |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks, Tuesday Game 4 - The Mavs are facing elimination in large part because of poor offensive execution and bad shooting. For all his greatness, Luka is a ball-stopper on offense and there is very little movement by the rest of the players. That’s why the Mavs were last in the league in average time of possession before taking a shot at 15.5 seconds. In the regular season this Dallas team had just 7,902 total possessions which was by far the lowest number in the league. The Mavericks were not a great shooting team during the regular season, ranking 18th at 46.1% overall and 19th in 3-point percentage at 35%. Against a very good Warriors defense they have really struggled at 41% overall and 32% from Deep in this series. Golden State is 3rd overall in the league allowing 105.5PPG, 2nd in FG% D at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% defense allowing 33.9%. Golden State is obviously known for their shooters and offense but their points haven’t come easy against this sold Dallas defense that makes them earn every point. Dallas was 6th in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing just 1.094PPP and 104.7PPG. What we have seen in this series is a steady decline in total field goal attempts with 168 in Game 1, 160 in Game 2 and 156 in Game 3. Those are well below the league average. We like Under here. |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home. |
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05-23-22 | Phillies -113 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -115 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - After losing 3 straight games, Philly has some nice momentum heading to Atlanta after beating the Dodgers yesterday. They have not been on the road since May 15th so the Phillies should be well rested. In their most recent road trip (May 12 – 15) they took 3 out of 4 games from the Dodgers in LA. Atlanta is off a loss on Sunday @ Miami. This will be their first home game since May 15th after a long 6 game road trip so a tougher spot for the host here. The Phillies should have a solid offensive showing here vs left hander Davidson who is making just his 2nd appearance of the season. He’s thrown only 7.2 innings this season and allowed 13 baserunners during that stretch. Davidson has had control problems walking a whopping 17 in his 29 career innings in his short MLB career. The Phillies line up has been very successful vs lefties this season averaging over 6 RPG their last 10. On the road for the season they having a team batting average of .288 vs LH’s while putting up 7.7 RPG! The Braves might have problems on offense in this one. They are hitting just .222 overall this season (24th in MLB) and they are getting outscored at home this season. They will face Wheeler who is rounding into form after a rough start to the season. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 3 ER’s in 26 innings on only 17 hits. He’s pitching much better right now than his 4.26 ERA and over the last 2 seasons Wheeler has been the Phillies ace with an ERA’s of 2.78 and 2.92. We’re getting the better offense with their ace on the mound here basically at even money. We’ll take Philadelphia on Monday. |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win! |
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05-22-22 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Washington vs Milwaukee, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Washington offense has scored a grand total of 1 run in this series thus far in 2 games. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games and those 9 games have totaled less than 8.5 runs 6 times. The chances of them getting on track offensively in this one are not good. Peralta is on the mound for Milwaukee and his ERA is 3.52 on the season but he’s pitching much better than that right now. He had 1 poor outing in mid April allowing 6 ER’s in just 3 innings vs St Louis throwing off his season long numbers. Since that outing he has allowed 5 ER’s in his last 5 starts. In those 5 starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 6 walks. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole is allowing just 2.8 RPG at home and with Washington struggling right now, that trend should continue. The Nats will throw Aaron Sanchez who doesn’t have great seasonal numbers with a high ERA but he’s pitching better than that. His ERA is 7.94 which is by far the highest of his career, but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this season is 4.50 and his xFIP is 4.49 indicating he’s actually pitching OK this year. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a very high .359 which tells us he’s had some tough luck so far this season. In his career vs current Brewer hitters he’s allowed a batting average of just .222 with on OBA of .291 so very solid. Milwaukee games have stayed under this current total of 8.5 in 4 of their last 5 games including both in this series (6 & 7 total runs). We like the UNDER in this one. |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics, Game 3 Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 the Celtics did not shoot well from Downtown against Miami as they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. In Game 2 the Celtics shot 51% overall and 50% from beyond the Arc in their blowout win over Miami. Miami, who is the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30 in Game 1 but still managed to score 118 points. In Game 2 the Heat really struggled with a 10 of 34 night from beyond the 3-point line or 29%. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. In Game 2 the Celtics scored 30 or more points by themselves in 3 of four quarters. Miami is on an 8-1 Over streak their last nine games against a team with a winning record. Boston is 9-2 Over their last eleven when also facing a team with a winning record. In 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams they’ve combined for more than 207 total points. |
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05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met last weekend and the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in Chicago. In that series NY outscored the Sox 32 to 15 and out hit them with a batting average of .286 to .231. The Yanks continue to roll with MLB’s best record at 28-10 and the 2nd best run differential at +72 (Dodgers have top run differential). They’ve won 8 of their last 10 but are coming off a rare loss at Baltimore which bodes well for NY as they are 15-3 SU coming off a loss dating back to the end of last season. Yankee ace lefty Cortes hits the hill tonight and he completely shut down the White Sox over the weekend giving up just 1 run over 8 innings. The Sox were able to get just 3 batters on base during that 8 inning span. Cortes has an ERA of 1.35 on the season averaging almost 12 K’s per 9 innings, allowing an opponent batting average of .164 with a WHIP of 0.85. He’s also backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. We don’t expect Chicago, who ranks 26th in runs scored and 26th in OPS, to do much of anything offensively in this one. Chicago is also in a tough situational spot having just played 5 games in 4 days @ KC and now on the road again. The Yankees don’t have any problems offensively right now. They lead MLB in OPS, 2nd in HR’s per game, and 4th in runs scored. They face Dallas Keuchel who has been very poor this season after struggling as well a year ago. He has an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of almost 2.00. Keuchel is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of .319 and he’s walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. He pitched fairly well vs NY over the weekend going 5 innings and not allowing a run, however the Yanks had 7 baserunners during that 5 inning stretch. On the road this season Keuchel has an ERA of over 11.00 and a WHIP of almost 3.00! The Yanks average over 6 RPG at home vs lefties this season and we like them to pound Keuchel in this one. Let’s lay 1.5 runs with New York on Saturday in early day game action. |
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05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 213.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, Game 2 Friday 9 PM ET - After the blowout loss in Game 1 we expect the Mavericks offense to return tonight and a much better shooting performance by Dallas in Game 2. Dallas shot just 36% overall and 23% (11 of 48) from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 46.1% and 35%. Dallas managed just 36 total points in the 1st and 4th quarter combined which is well below their season average of 52PPG scored in those two quarters during the regular season. The Warriors shot 56% from the field in Game 1 or 46 of 82. The game plan was clearly to attack the Mavs interior defense which is lacking a rim protector as evidenced by their 29 3-point attempts which was much lower than their season average of 39.5. Both teams are going to make adjustments and have more success from Deep in Game 2 which should push this game Over the number rather easily. Golden State’s home games have averaged 217 total points per game in the postseason. The Mavs road playoff games have averaged 214 total points. The Over is 60% or 6-4 the last ten meetings. We expect both teams to have a much better shooting night from the 3-point line, along with a slightly faster pace throughout the entire game (slowed dramatically in the 4th with the Warriors in cruise control). Bet OVER! |
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05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 207.5 | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - The pace of play in Game 1 was extremely slow with only 159 field goal attempts but the big reason the game went Over the total was the volume of free throws by both teams and 3-pointers attempted and made. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 66 free throws which is 22 more than league average for an NBA game. As we predicted in G1 the Celtics would not shoot as well from Downtown against Miami as they did against the Bucks, and they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. We expect adjustments here and a slightly better shooting night in Game 2 from Boston. Miami, who the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30. The Heat should settle in and have a better night from distance in G2. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. Miami’s home games in the playoffs have averaged 209.5PPG. Boston’s road playoff games have averaged 216 total points. Both teams are in the top half of the league in 3-point attempts which will help this game get Over the number in Game 2. |
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05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Cleveland, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Two big time OVER teams facing off here as the Reds are 22-12-2 to the OVER and the Guardians are 20-14 to the OVER. Both teams have been playing well offensively as of late with Cleveland averaging 4.95 RPG over their last 10 and Cincinnati averaging 5.93 their last 10. Cleveland sends Quantrill to the hill and while his ERA is a solid 3.93, his xERA (expected ERA) and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) are both quite a bit higher telling us he’s been a bit lucky this season. Tyler Mahle is pitching for the Reds and his ERA is approaching 6.00 and actually dropped the last 2 games as he allowed only 2 ER’s in each. However, both of those outings were vs Pittsburgh who is 26th in batting average and 29th in total runs scored on the season. Cleveland is 7th in MLB in RPG and 5th in batting average so Mahle will have a tougher go of it today. Both pitchers struggle with walks so we expect plenty of base runners today. The ump behind the plate today is Jerry Meals who has called balls & strikes 6 times this year and his games have averaged 11.5 total runs. We like OVER this afternoon. |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole. |
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05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Yesterday we were on Tampa Bay on the run line and picked up an easy 8-1 win. We see a similar outcome (easy win) tonight with Miami over Washington. Rather than laying -200 with the Marlins we’ll grab the run line at -1.5 and then we are getting +115. Miami has dominated this series this season going a perfect 5-0 thus far and tonight they have their best pitcher on the mound. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic this season giving up just 5 ER’s in starts! He has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 ER just one time all season. He’s already faced Washington this year and did not give up an ER in his 6 IP. He’s facing a Nationals team that has really struggled offensively as of late, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 5 games vs Miami this season, Washington has scored a total of 8 runs and they have not topped 2 runs in any of those 5 games. They are hitting just .184 as a team in those 5 games averaging less than 6 hits per game. In the first 2 games of this series in Miami, the Nats have been outscored 13-3 and outhit 26-12. Miami is trending upward offensively. They are averaging 6 RPG over their last 6 games and over their last 10 the Marlins are hitting .282 vs right handers and putting up nearly 6 RPG. They’ll be facing Washington starter Josiah Gray who has an ERA of 4.34 and has really struggled his last 2 outings allowing 9 ER’s in 11 IP and 5 HR’s. In his 1 start vs Miami this season, Gray allowed 4 ER’s and 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings of work. When we get to the bullpens, Miami is superior in almost every key category. We think Washington really struggles offensively again vs one of the top pitchers in the Majors and Miami wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -125 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Money Line -125 over the Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston is coming off a draining 7-game series over the Bucks, had to travel and have just 1 day off after playing a very short rotation against Milwaukee. The Heat have been off since Thursday the 12th and are plenty rested here. The Celtics benefitted from great 3-point shooting in their series against the Bucks who have a horrible defensive philosophy defending the 3 (and ranked 19th in the NBA in 3PT% D). The Celtics made 53 more 3’s than Milwaukee in the series. Boston isn’t going to get those wide-open looks against Miami who held the 2nd best 3PT% defense in the NBA this season at 33.9%. The C’s were an average shooting team during the regular season, ranking 15th in overall FG% and 14th in 3PT%. Miami shot 46.7% during the regular season which was 13th overall but they were the best or #1 ranked 3-point shooting team at 37.9%. Granted, the Celtics are great at defending the Arc, but they won’t hold this Heat team to 12% as they did the Bucks in Game 7. Miami is 29-12 SU at home this regular season with a +/- of +5.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. They’ve gone 6-0 SU at home in the postseason with an average Margin of Victory of +17PPG. This is a bad situation for Boston and a great one for Miami. Bet the Heat! |
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05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -1.5 on Run Line over Detroit, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - TB is a huge -275 favorite here but if we take the run line we can knock it down to the -120 range. Tampa is coming off a 3-2 loss yesterday vs the Tigers and Detroit scored the game winner in the 9th inning. The Tigers had only 6 baserunners in 9 innings yesterday and somehow scratched out 3 runs. We think Detroit struggles to score anything today vs McClanahan who is on the hill for Tampa. He has fantastic 2.52 ERA but has actually pitched better than his numbers with an xERA of 2.40 and a ridiculously good xFIP of 1.65. McClanahan is averaging a whopping 13 K’s per 9 innings while walking just 2. He’s facing a Detroit offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in both scoring and OPS. The Tigers, with a 13-23 record, might look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but their 3 wins prior to last night were at home where they swept a bad Baltimore team. In the 3 games before that series the Tigers were swept at home by Oakland and scored 4 total runs in that 3 game series. Detroit pitcher Brieske has made 4 starts this season and those are his only 4 appearances in the Majors in his career. His ERA looks solid at 3.86, however his xERA is almost 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.82. Prior to getting called up to Detroit he had an ERA of 4.50 for Toledo in the Minors. His luck factor has been extremely high with opposing hitters BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .164. We like Tampa to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-16-22 | Braves v. Brewers -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee -135 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - These 2 just met in early May in Atlanta and the Braves took 2 of 3 giving Milwaukee a little extra incentive here. The Brewers are happy to be back at home after a long 9 game road trip. At home Milwaukee is 10-4 on the season and run differential of +3 RPG. They average 6.5 RPG at home and vs right handers that number jumps up to 7 RPG at American Family Field! They’ll be facing Ian Anderson who has an ERA of 4.20 and has given up 4 HR’s in his last 5 games. That could be a problem in this one vs a Brewer line up that averages 1.42 HR’s per 9 innings, 2nd in the Majors. The Braves are on the road for the first time since May 4th after a disappointing 4-4 home stand. They are just 6-8 on the road this year hitting just .216 as a team and averaging only 3.4 RPG. They are facing Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee and we feel he is undervalued right now. His ERA is 4.40, but most of that came in his first 2 starts where he struggle back in mid April. His xERA is 3.40 and his FIP is fantastic at 2.37 which lends to the fact he has pitched much better than his ERA suggests. In his last 4 starts Peralta has allowed just 4 ER’s with 28 strikeouts and only 5 walks. At home this season he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of just 0.93. Versus current players on Atlanta’s roster, Peralta has faced 49 plate appearances and the Braves hitters have a batting average of just .209. We like Milwaukee to get the win at home tonight. |
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05-15-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -115 over Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Cubs pulled off a 4-2 win in Arizona yesterday despite picking up only 4 hits in the game. The DBacks won the first game of the series and have outhit the Cubs 20 to 9 in the first 2 games. Chicago is just 9 of 61 at the plate (.147 batting average) so far in this series while Arizona is 20 for 70 (.286 average). The Cubs have been struggling at the plate for a while now with a team BA of just .202 over their last 10 games averaging 2.9 RPG. They have a 3-7 record in those games. Arizona is 7-3 over their last 10 games hitting .249 and averaging 5 RPG. Today they face Chicago lefty Steele and the DBacks have been even better vs southpaws hitting .292 and averaging 5.5 RPG over their last 10. Steele has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.32 and he has not pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 27 baserunners in his last 4 starts spanning just 12.2 innings. Arizona starter Castellanos has an ERA of 4.32, however he has had only 1 poor start this season. In 4 of his 5 starts he has allowed 3 ER’s or less. He’s allowed 0 ER’s in 2 of his 5 starts on the year. With the Cubs struggling at the plate and Arizona coming alive offensively and facing a struggling pitcher, we like the Diamondbacks to take the series finale today. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston. |
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05-14-22 | Guardians -125 v. Twins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
MLB side pick "action" #923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -125 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Cleveland is coming off a 12-8 loss here last night and we expect them to bounce back with a win today with their ace on the mound. Last night the Twins were able to rough up Cleveland starter Civale which wasn’t a huge surprise as his ERA is now north of 9.00 and he has allowed at least 6 ER’s now in 3 of his last 4 starters. Today Minnesota will have a much tougher go of it facing former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber. He is coming off his worst start of the year @ Toronto and that should give Bieber some extra motivation here. Prior to his most recent start, he had allowed a total of 8 earned runs in just over 28 innings this season. His ERA is just over 4.00, however most of that was due to his one poor outing a week ago when he gave up 7 ER’s in 3 innings. He should handle a Twins offense that before last night was faltering averaging just 2.7 RPG over their previous 10. Cleveland’s offense shouldn’t have a problem tonight. They have been one of the best in the Majors all season ranking in the top 4 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They face Minnesota starter Smeltzer who was called up from the Minors to get the start today. He has pitched 69 total innings in the Majors in his career but has been pretty much a life long Minor leaguer. It’s not like he’s been a dominant Minor league pitcher with a career 17-21 record with a WHIP of 1.24 in 374 innings. The Guardians had won 6 of their previous 9 games entering yesterday and their offense has averaged 6 RPG over their last 10. Take Cleveland on Saturday. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome. |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET Thursday - The 76ers played well at home in Games 3 & 4 with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. Then Miami flexed their muscle in Game 5 at home in a blowout. We are betting the 76ers don’t shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. In Game 5 they shot just 36% overall and 28% from 3. Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. We don’t expect Miami to shoot as well as they did in the previous game when they hit 54% of their FG attempts and scored 120-points. The field goal attempts for this series has been unusually low with 171, 162, 144, 150 and 169. Don’t forget, league average during the regular season was around 176. |
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05-12-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - We’ve played many more UNDERS this year than OVERS and cashed in nicely on most of them. The UNDERS have cashed at over 56% so far this season (non extra inning games). That being said, the Reds are a full blown OVER team right now. They have the best OVER record in MLB by a long shot at 21-9-1. Their pitching staff is weak and their offense is clicking right now. After losing 20 of 21 games between April 12th and May 5th, the Reds have now won 4 of their last 6 and their offense is red hot averaging over 8 RPG in those 6 contests. Cincy is now 13-1-1 to the OVER in their last 15 games. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been playing much better as of late putting up just over 4 RPG over their last 10 hitting .250 as a team during that stretch. The Reds pitching staff is dead last in team ERA by a longshot at 6.61 while Pittsburgh has the 3rd worst ERA in MLB at 4.81. The scheduled starters are Brubaker for Pittsburgh and Overton for Cincinnati. Advantage to the hitters in this game as both teams just faced off vs these pitchers last week so they’ve seen them very recently. That match up went to Pittsburgh 9-2 so easily over the total. Cincy struggled a bit vs Overton which was to be expected as he was making his first start ever vs the Reds and just the 5th start of his career. The Reds should have a much better showing offensively in this game seeing him for the 2nd time in a week. Once we get to the bullpens we have 2 of the worst in the Majors (30th and 25th in bullpen ERA) so we don’t expect these offenses to slow down late in the game. We’re on the OVER in this one. |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET Wednesday - We are betting this game will be an old fashion Eastern Conference defensive battle from start to finish. This teams don’t like each other, and it’s elevated both teams play, especially on the defensive end of the court. The first three games of this series all stayed Under the Total and Game 4 was on pace to stay Under again but then the Celtics exploded for 69 points in the second half on 63% shooting. Al Horford for the Celtics “backpacked” his team in the second half with a career playoff high of 30-points. We can’t see the 37-year-old duplicating that type of performance. The Bucks shot just 41% in Game 4 and coach Bud for some unexplained reason played defensive minded George Hill over Bobby Portis which clearly hurt the Bucks offense. In the two games played in Boston the Bucks struggled with their shooting at 43.5% as a team, well below their season average of 46.8%. During the regular season the Bucks were a disappointing 13th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.118-points per possession, but they played a large portion of the season without Brook Lopez. In the Playoffs the Bucks have the #1 ranked DEFF allowing just .998PPP. These two teams have played slow in the postseason with the Celtics ranking 10th of all 16 playoff teams in pace, the Bucks rank 12th. These two teams both end up in the 90’s in this one! |
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05-11-22 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Colorado vs San Francisco, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies have their best pitcher going today with Chad Kuhl on the hill. He has allowed a grand total of 5 ER’s on the season in his 4 starts. He’s given up just 2 HR’s in 4 games with a 0.84 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .157 vs Kuhl. His 4 starts have averaged just 6.25 total RPG. He will be opposed by a pitcher we feel is drastically undervalued right now. The Giants send Cobb to the hill and his numbers are much higher than they should be. His overall ERA is 4.80, however his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he has pitched this season is just 1.24 and his xFIP is a very low .205 which is the 3rd lowest of all starting pitchers taking the hill today. Those numbers tell us he is pitching MUCH better than his ERA indicates. We’ve discussed the Rockies overall offensive numbers many times within our analysis on their games. Their overall offensive stats look very good. However, much of that success has come at home in the high altitude. On the road this team is hitting just .233 and averaging less than 3 RPG. Versus right handers on the road the Rockies are squeezing out only 2.05 RPG on the season. The Giants offense has been humming in the first 2 games of this series putting up 17 total runs, however they have faced two lower tier starters for Colorado. In their previous 6 games leading into this series, San Fran was averaging just 3.6 RPG and that INCLUDED a 13 run outburst vs the Cardinals Steven Matz who has an ERA north of 7.00. Two top notch starters keep this game low scoring this afternoon. |
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05-10-22 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Kansas City vs Texas, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - The top starters for each team on the hill today and with the total set at 8 we like the UNDER in this one. Keller is the starter for KC and he has 5 starts under his belt allowing just 6 ER’s all season. In his last 3 starts he’s pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 1 ER. His WHIP is an impressive 0.84 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .168 vs Keller. Texas sends Perez to the mound and he’s a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. His first 2 starts of the season were a bit shaky but he’s pitched really well as of late. Over his last 3 starts, spanning 20 innings, Perez has allowed only 1 ER on only 8 total hits. Opposing batters are hitting barely over .200 vs the lefty. KC is averaging just 2.4 RPG vs left handers so with how well Perez has been pitching, we see him having great success here. Neither team is lighting it up offensively. Both rank near the bottom of MLB in both batting average and OPS. KC is putting up an average of just 3.1 RPG on the season and Texas is at 4.1 RPG. The Rangers have been a bit fortunate to get to that number as their overall offensive numbers (BA, OPS, HR’s) are not that of a team averaging 4.1 RPG. If we narrow it down to more recent results, over the las 10 games the Royals are averaging 2.73 RPG and the Rangers are at 3.13. These 2 starting pitchers have combined for 10 starts this year and only once has a game topped 8 runs. We don’t see either of these offenses having much success and we’ll grab the UNDER tonight. |
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05-10-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
#41/42 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET – Amazingly, all 4 games so far in this series as well as 7 straight meetings dating back to the regular season have seen the victorious team score at least 5 goals in each of the games! 6 of those 7 games have gone over the total and the average total goals scored is 8 per game. Given those numbers and the fact that neither goalie has impressed overall in this series, we like the over in this one. Special teams can play a huge role in totals as well and the fact that the last 5 games between these teams have featured a total of 2.6 power play goals scored per game is certainly a big plus for our over tonight. In fact, each team had a power play goal in each of the 2 games in Tampa and the game before that saw the Lightning score 3 power play goals at Toronto. Coming off a 7-3 loss in Game 4 on the road, the Maple Leafs are sure to respond big on home ice here but their struggles to stop the Lightning likely to continue in this one as Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals in the last 7 meetings. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home. |
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05-09-22 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland vs Detroit, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst and coldest offenses going at it head to head tonight in this one. Oakland ranks 25th in RPG, 29th in batting average, 30th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s. Detroit ranks 30th, 26th, 29th and 30th in those categories respectively. Both teams also strikeout a LOT with both whiffing almost 10 times per 9 innings. Both have been terrible vs right handed pitchers this season and especially as of late with Oakland averaging 1.83 RPG with a BA of .174 and Detroit averaging 2.02 RPG with a BA of .202 their last 10 games. The A’s are off a series in Minnesota where they scored 4 total runs in 3 games and they’ve been held to 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 14 games. Detroit is off a series in Houston where they scored 6 total runs in 4 games and they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 13 of their last 16 games. Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and he’s been their best starter this year allowing just 6 ER’s in 24 innings with a WHIP of 0.95. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing 3 ER’s vs a red hot Tampa Bay offense, and we expect him to pitch very well today. Pineda has been solid for the Tigers with a 3.77 ERA on the season and he’s been consistently good for 3 seasons now with his highest ERA at 3.62 during that span. Both pitchers have great K to walk ratios and we mentioned both offenses struggle with strikeouts. These teams have combined record of 34-20-1 to the UNDER this year and with the wind blowing in from left tonight at 10 to 15 MPH, this sets up nicely for a low scoring game. We’re on the UNDER. |
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05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4. |
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05-08-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We’ve been cashing in quite regularly with Unders this season but we switch gears and take the Over in this one. The Reds are one of the few teams that has a solid Over record this season (17-9-1 to the Over) and they’ve gone Over the total in 10 of their last 11 games. Their last 11 games have averaged 13 total runs per game. Their pitching has been horrendous which is a big reason for their high scoring games. They are dead last in MLB in both starter’s ERA and bullpen ERA. Today the Reds send Tyler Mahle to the hill and after a solid first start of the season way back on April 7th, he has since allowed 20 ER’s in his last 21 innings spanning 5 starts. Pittsburgh’s starter Thompson has been worse. His ERA is almost 10.00 and his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is one of the highest in the Majors for a starting pitcher at 2.22. We spoke of Cincinnati’s struggles in the bullpen but Pittsburgh’s relievers are great either ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, hits allowed, and WHIP. The first 2 games of this series 11 and 13 runs with the teams combining for 36 hits and a whopping 54 total baserunners. More struggles for each pitching staff here and another Over is on the way. |
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05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee vs Atlanta, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Two of the top starting pitchers in baseball are facing off in this one. Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is on the hill for Milwaukee and lefty Max Fried will start for Atlanta. In his last 4 starts Burnes has allowed a grand total of 4 ER’s in 28 innings with a whopping 39 K’s (~10 per game) and just 4 walks. Fried has allowed only 5 ER’s in his last 4 starts spanning 24 innings with 22 K’s and 0 walks. We look for very few walks today from these 2 so the opposing batters will have to earn their runs which will be tough. Both starters have the ability to go deep into games but when we do reach the bullpens both are among the best in MLB. Milwaukee has been scoring plenty of runs as of late, however their most recent games have been at home vs the Reds who have the worst ERA in MLB and yesterday vs Atlanta (Brewers scored 6 runs) the Braves went with a reliever who doesn’t start and he gave up 2 ER’s and lasted only 1 inning. Now Milwaukee faces a top of the line starter for the first time in well over a week. On top of that, the Brewers have struggled with left handed pitchers hitting just .218 and averaging a full 1.5+ RPG less than when facing a right hander. On the other side, Atlanta has hit just .220 vs right handers this year and they average a full 1 RPG less than when facing lefties. Both teams strikeout a lot (22nd and 28th in MLB) which will be a big problem vs these pitchers. We don’t foresee many baserunners today (Burnes WHIP is 0.73 & Fried is 0.87) so very few chances to push runners across the plate. Under is the play. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -117 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -117 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - Based on the line in the opening game of this series this number should be slightly higher than it is so we’ll gladly take the value and the Bucks off a loss, back at home. Specifically in Game 2, the Celtics had a remarkably well shooting night from beyond the arc at 47% or 20 of 43. Those are surprising numbers considering Boston was 14th in the league in 3PT% at 35.5%. Granted, the Bucks aren’t great defending the 3-point line (35.6%) but the 47% in Game 2 was more of an aberration than a norm. Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 36.6% but in Game 2 they hit just 17% or 3 of 18. That’s not going to happen again with the Bucks back on their home court. Milwaukee was 22-11 SU off a loss this season, 13-7 at home. Let’s not forget the Bucks are 12-2 SU their last 14 home playoff games dating back to last season and the Celtics are a young team playing a huge game on the road. This is a classic Zig-Zag spot to back the home team Bucks! |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Colorado vs Arizona, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - While the DBacks bats did come alive a bit over their last 4 or 5 games, they are still hitting a league low .188 (team batting average) and they are worse at home hitting only .158. The Rockies overall offensive numbers are very solid, however most of their damage has come at home in the high altitude. On the road Colorado is hitting just .230 and barely averaging 3 RPG. The edge goes to both starting pitchers in this game tonight. Arizona starter Kelly has been lights out allowing just 4 ER’s on the season in his 5 starts (29 innings pitched). He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in 3 of his 5 starts and he ranks 2nd in MLB with a 1.27 ERA. The total runs scored in 4 of his 5 starts this season has been 5 or less. Colorado will send Kuhl to the mound and he’s been the Rockies best starter this season. He’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s this year in his 4 starts spanning 24 innings. He has a 1.90 ERA on the season and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .160 vs Kuhl this season. Even at home in the high altitude Kuhl has proven a top notch pitcher allowing just 3 ER’s in 13 innings this season. This game is on the road but that previous stat speaks to how well he is pitching right now. We think both offenses struggle tonight and this one stays Under 8.5 Runs. |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 211 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 198 total points, Game 2 ended with 222 but based on the field goal attempts, they both should have finished Under the Totals. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 171 field goals, in Game 2 it dropped to 162. League average this season was 176 which contributed to roughly 220PPG. The 76ers offense has struggled without potential MVP Joel Embiid in the lineup for the first two games and he’s been ruled out again for Game 3. The 76ers have shot under 22% from beyond the arc in the series and 44% overall from the field. Miami has had two solid shooting nights on their home floor at 47% overall but expect some struggles on the road in this pivotal Game 3. Philadelphia was the 7th best defense in terms of points allowed at home this season (106.8) while the Heat were the 2nd best team in the league in points allowed on the road at 105.6PPG. Miami was the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season, Philadelphia was 6th slowest and in the playoffs both have been slower yet. This game sets up for an Under wager! |
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05-05-22 | Marlins +100 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
#957 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Miami +100 over San Diego, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are not in an ideal situation here having played a doubleheader yesterday in Cleveland. After their 6-5 loss in game 2 @ Cleveland yesterday, San Diego made the long trek home and now must play a game just over 24 hours after their 2nd game of the DH ended yesterday. Not only that, it was the end of a long 8 game road trip for San Diego so they’ve been traveling a lot. Their bullpen could be rather thin tonight after using 8 different relief pitchers in yesterday’s 2 games. The Padres are on a very nice 11-4 run overall but let’s keep in mind over half of those wins (6) have come vs the Reds who are 3-21 on the season. The only team San Diego has beaten during this stretch that currently has a winning record was a 3-2 extra inning win vs the Dodgers, otherwise all 10 of their other wins have come vs teams with losing records. Miami is coming off a tough home series getting swept by suddenly red hot Arizona (7-2 last 9 games). All 3 of those losses for the Marlins came by a single run and prior to those losses they had won 7 of their previous 8 games. We spoke of San Diego’s tough travel spot and while Miami is also traveling, this will be their first road game since April 28th so they are in a much better situation. The Marlins have Luzardo on the hill who has been fantastic in 3 of his 4 starts this season. If we throw out his poor start vs St Louis back in mid April, Luzardo has allowed just 3 ER’s in 16 innings with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 16 innings. His ERA on the season is a very good 3.10 but he’s pitched better than that with a xERA of 2.38 and an xFIP of just 2.69. San Diego’s starter tonight (Martinez) is the direct opposite with his numbers sitting much better than they should actually be. Martinez has an OK ERA of 4.12 but an xERA of 6.64 and an xFIP of 4.69. Miami also has an edge in most key bullpen categories. At basically even money, we like the Marlins here. |
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05-04-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 235 total points in Game 1 but did it by taking just 120 field goal attempts. That’s insane! The league average for FGA in an average game is 176 this season. The Mavs averaged 1.20-points per possession, Phoenix was even better yet at 1.30PPP. What makes that especially unique is the fact that these two teams finished top 6 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Phoenix was 3rd in the league allowing just 1.074PPP, Dallas gave up just 1.094PPP. The Mavericks were the slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season while the Suns were 8th fastest but, in the postseason, they’ve preferred a much slower tempo averaging 93.4 possessions per game. We can assume Dallas will shoot better than the 41% they hit in Game 1 but it is highly unlikely the Suns shoot 64% from the field and 50% from deep in Game 2. Granted Game 1 went Over because of the Suns shooting but the three regular season meetings between these two teams all finished with 216 or less points. The Under is the play here. |
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05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington vs Colorado, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - The Washington bats are red hot right now scoring 38 runs over their last 4 games – 3 vs San Francisco and 1 vs Colorado. That’s almost 10 RPG for the Nats over the last 4 games and they have a whopping 61 hits in those 4 games (15 hits per game average). They have been much better offensively on the road this year hitting .306 as a team and averaging 6.7 RPG. They are facing Rockies starter who has decent overall numbers, however 3 of his 4 starts have come on the road. In his only outing in Denver he allowed 12 baserunners in just 4 innings giving up 5 runs (4 earned). The Colorado offense is among the best in the league ranking 1st in batting average & OPS, 7th in RPG & HR’s. At home they are averaging 6 RPG and hitting .277 as a team. Those numbers spike up vs left handers as the Rockies hit .319 at home and average over 8 RPG. Tonight they face struggling south paw Patrick Corbin who not only has an ERA north of 8.00 this season but he’s also had problems with control walking almost 6 per 9 innings. Once we get past the 2 starting pitchers, it really doesn’t get any better. Colorado ranks dead last in bullpen ERA and WHIP. The Washington relievers ranks 24th and 26th in those 2 categories. The Nationals are 9-1-1 to the OVER in road games this season and these 2 have gone OVER the total in 11 of the last 15 meetings in Colorado. We look for a high scoring game in Denver this evening. |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 227.5 | Top | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 PM ET - Game 1 of this series is a clear indicator of how this game is going to play out too as the two teams combined for 188 total field goals which is 12 more than league average. The Warriors had 106 possessions in Game 1, Memphis had 104 and both teams attempted a shot within the first 13.8 seconds of their offensive possession. Those numbers dramatically suggest another Over here when you consider the league averages for the entire season of 99 possessions per game and on average it took teams 14.5 seconds to get a shot up. Again, looking at the baseline of the regular season we see all NBA games finished with roughly 220 total points. This number is barely higher than that and it’s not like either team shot insanely well in Game 1 and they got to 233 total points. Golden State shot 47% on the season and hit 48% in G1. Memphis shot 46% for the year but only hit 43% in the opener and still scored 116 points. The oddsmaker have adjusted this number up slightly compared to Game 1 but it’s not enough. BET OVER! |
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05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Milwaukee -1.5 Runs over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Rather than lay in the -230 range with the Brewers here, we can lay 1.5 runs at a solid value of +100. The Brewers offense has been back and forth for much of the season but they’ve been pretty consistent at home averaging almost 5 RPG. In their 7 home wins this season they’ve averaged 6 RPG. We expect the Milwaukee offense to play well here vs Cincy starter Mahle who has allowed 16 ER’s in his last 17.1 innings spanning 4 starts – all losses for the Reds. If Mahle continues to struggle, there is literally no relief for Cincinnati. The Reds bullpen owns the 3rd highest ERA, 3rd highest WHIP and has walked the 2nd most batters in the Majors. Cincy has allowed at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games and that will most likely be enough for Milwaukee to cover -1.5 here. That’s because the Brewers send ace Woodruff to the mound and he is coming off a poor start so we look for a bounce back. He’s also been outstanding at home not allowing a single earned run in 2 starts this season. He is backed by a solid bullpen and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is rolling right now allowing 2 runs or less in 5 straight games. That’s not great for a Cincinnati team that ranks 30th (last) in OPS, 29th in batting average, 28th in RPG and strikes out a lot. The Reds have won a grand total of ONE of their last 18 games and all but one of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. We like Milwaukee to win this game by 2 runs or more. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big. |
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05-02-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Monday at 2:10 PM ET - The Sox offense continues to struggle topping 4 runs just TWICE in their last 16 games. That’s even a bit deceiving as one of those times they topped 4 runs was in yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the Angels. All 5 of those runs for Chicago came in the 9th inning! They had 12 hits on the day but half of those (6) came in the final inning as well. It’s not like the WS offense broke out and had a great game. They still rank 27th offensively in RPG, batting average, and OPS. Monday afternoon they face Angel left hander Sandoval who has pitched 15 innings this season and has not allowed an earned run. Dylan Cease is on the hill for the White Sox and while is numbers are very good, he’s actually pitched better than those numbers indicate. His ERA is a solid 3.27 in 22 innings pitched but his xERA (expected ERA) is actually 1.75! He’s also faced the Angels only once since the end of the 2019 season and that was over a year ago on April 4, 2021 giving him an edge on the LAA hitters here in our opinion. LAA pitcher Sandoval is in a similar situation having faced just 14 career plate appearances from the entire White Sox team giving him an edge as well. We mentioned the late scoring push from Chicago yesterday but the Angels did the same. Of the 11 runs scored yesterday, 7 came in the 9th inning. We expect the starters to hand a low scoring game over to the bullpens and the relievers to perform much better on Monday. Under the total is our play. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors -125 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -120 @ Memphis Grizzlies, Sunday 3:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are about to step up to the big time with a playoff series against an experienced playoff team that is built to win Championships. Memphis got past a young Minnesota team that blew several second half double-digit leads because of their youth and inexperience. That’s not about to happen here against the Warriors. Memphis beat the Warriors the last two meetings of the regular season but most recently the Warriors were without Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green. On Jan 11th these teams met in Memphis with the Grizzlies winning 116-108 but Golden State was without Green and Thompson was just coming back and only played 19-minutes. The Warriors looked like a serious contender in their near series sweep of the Nuggets in opening round with an offense that averaged 1.219-points per possession. Golden State shot 54.5% in the series overall and 45.1% from Deep in the opening round. Rest will be a key factor here also as the Warriors have 3+ days off, while Memphis just played Friday night in Minnesota in their emotional win. Golden State is 7-1 ATS their last eight games when playing with this type of rest while the Grizzlies have failed to cover 4 straight as a Dog. Speaking of being a dog here, why is the #2 Seed and home dog in this game? That’s right, the oddsmakers are telling us something here, bet the road favorite! Value here with the low money line rather than laying the bucket so we'll grab the money line here! |
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05-01-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Houston vs Toronto, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Toronto ace Gausman is on the hill and he has been fantastic this season. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in 24.2 innings with 31 strikeouts and not a single walk. His fastball hits 96 MPH and his splitter is nearly impossible to hit. Opposing batters have a chase rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) of 73% on his splitter and 53% on all pitches, both tops in MLB. He’s facing a Houston line up that has averaged just 3.8 RPG this season (21st) and the hitters Gausman has faced on the Astros have a batting average of just .196 vs him. Blue Jay games have totaled 7 runs or less in 3 of Gausman’s 4 starts this season. Offensively, Toronto has scored 2 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games. They will face Houston lefty Framber Valdez today who has been very good in 3 of his 4 starts. His one poor outing vs the LAA, Valdez allowed 6 ER in just 4 innings. In his other 3 starts, he has allowed 1 ER total in 15.2 innings. He has been a consistent pitcher for 2+ seasons now with an ERA of 3.57 in 2020 and 3.14 in 2021. The ump behind the plate today, Nestor Ceja, has called 3 games this year and the average total runs scored in those games is just 5.6. These 2 teams have combined to play 43 games this season with only 15 going Over the total. We expect another low scoring game here and UNDER is our play. |
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04-30-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Saturday at 8 PM ET - In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball as of late. They have scored at least 10 runs in 4 of their last 5 games including last night’s 12-2 win over KC. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and 8 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. They rank #1 in MLB in HR’s per 9 innings at 1.44 and they are in the top 7 in batting average, RPG, and OPS. Tonight they face Hernandez who is on the mound for the Royals. He has allowed 10 ER’s this season in just 14 innings and his strikeout to walk ratio is bad at 1 to 1. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is the 2nd highest on the board of starting pitchers today at 1.79. We don’t expect the Yankees offense to slow down today. On the other side, NY will send Gerrit Cole to the mound who has a solid ERA of 4.00 but he’s actually pitched better than that this season with an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.74 and an xFIP of 3.50. He is facing a KC lineup that ranks 26th in scoring, 27th in team batting average, 27th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. The Royals started the season winning 5 of their first 10 games but have since gone 2-6 their last 8 and they have been outscored 44 to 27 in those 8 games. We are getting the better starting pitcher, the much better offense, and we’ll lay -1.5 runs (-110) in this one. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 9 PM ET - Three of the five meetings in this series have stayed Under 229 total points with the most recent game finishing with 220. Over the course of the regular season the Grizzlies attempted 94 field goals per game while the Wolves attempted 90 per game. In this series those attempts have dropped significantly with the Grizz taking 88.2 FGA per game, the Wolves are getting up just 81.6. The five games themselves have averaged 224.6 total points scored per game. Both teams are also shooting below their season field goal percentages in this series with Memphis shooting 45.1%, Minnesota is hitting 44.1%. With the pressure on for both teams we don’t expect shots to fall in this elimination game and the defenses will step up. Bet UNDER. |
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04-29-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Pitchers with Action: #969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The White Sox have been struggling at the plate to say the least. They rank 24th or lower in RPG, team batting average, and OPS. The Sox have been held to 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games and they have a team batting average of just .186 over their last 10 games. In their last 4 series (all 3 game series) they have scored a grand total of 9, 7, 5, and 9 runs. Those are their offensive outputs for the entire series, not just one game! It won’t get any easier for them tonight facing the Angels starter Syndergaard who has allowed just 4 ER’s in his 3 starts spanning 17 innings. Syndergaard is also a great ground ball pitcher with 58% balls in play staying on the ground which leads to fewer runs. The Angels have much better offensive numbers but they will be facing Chicago’s ace tonight with Giolito on the mound. He has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season for an ERA of just over 1.00 with a whopping 16 strikeouts in just 8 innings. Giolito has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the Majors with an ERA of 3.53 or lower each of the last 3 seasons. Each of these pitchers have had success vs the current lineups for the opposing team with Giolito limiting current Angels to batting average of .195 lifetime and Syndergaard holding current White Sox hitters to a lifetime average of .209. Wind is blowing in from center tonight at 10 to 15 MPH and we expect a low scoring game in this one. |
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04-29-22 | Blackhawks v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
#1/2 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – This is a fantastic spot for an over. The Blackhawks are off a dramatic high-scoring shootout win over the Golden Knights Wednesday which made sure Vegas was eliminated from the playoff picture. Now the Blackhawks travel to Buffalo to take on the Sabres and Chicago will be flat in terms of defensive intensity after that game. The Blackhawks do still have plenty of talent up front though to insure a solid scoring effort in this one. After all, it is the final game of the season and these are two teams that have long been eliminated from the playoff picture and there should be plenty of open ice in this one as it should be a wide-open affair. The atmosphere in Buffalo for this regular season finale will be a raucous crowd and the Sabres do tend to score very well here. Amazingly, within the month of April, the Sabres allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their 6 losses. So what about Buffalo wins? The Sabres have scored an average of 4.6 goals per game in their 7 victories. All of these are regulation goals too as none of Buffalo's April games have required extra time. As for Chicago, the Blackhawks have allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 10 games but, again, will have no trouble scoring on a porous Buffalo defense in this one either. Plenty of scoring opportunities likely in a game set to be played out with a lack of defense and both teams looking for breakouts and setting up odd man rushes. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 209.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - With the Mavs holding a 3-2 advantage in this series the pressure is on for both teams which will lead to a lower scoring game. With that said we expect the defensive energy to be high for both teams. Pace is critical here and these two teams are the two lowest possession teams currently in the Playoffs as the Mavs have 365 total possessions, Utah sits with 368. These teams averaged 96 (Dallas) and 98 (Utah) possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging just 92. Not only that, but the Mavs have, on average, taken 16.8 seconds per field goal attempt which is slowest among all Playoff teams. Utah is faster at 14.7 seconds per FGA, but they’ve struggled to score as a byproduct of the Mavs perimeter defense and their lack of 3-point makes and attempts. Utah is reliant on 3-pointers with the 2nd most 3-point attempts per game during the regular season at 39.8 per game. They made 35.9% of those 3-point attempts during the regular season but have made just 30.7 % in the five games of this series. These two teams were both top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing less than .970-points per possession. The first game of this series in had a posted Total of 208.5 so this number is still slightly higher than what Vegas originally projected. The Jazz offense has really struggled against this Dallas defense scoring 104 or less in 4 of the five games and now their best offensive player in Donovan Mitchell is either out or less than 100% with a pulled hamstring. |
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04-28-22 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - Houston sends their ace Justin Verlander to the mound in the series finale. He has allowed just 4 ER’s in 3 starts this season with a miniscule WHIP of 0.74. Lefty Perez is on the hill for Texas and the Astros have really struggled vs southpaws this year with a team batting average of just .189. Houston has averaged just 3.1 RPG this season per 9 innings vs lefties and Perez has some big momentum coming off his best outing of the year holding Oakland scoreless with just 2 hits in 6 innings. Perez has a solid ERA of 3.86 on the season but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA (expected ERA) of 2.86. The Houston offense has struggled all season ranking 20th or lower in RPG, batting average, and OPS. While Texas has averaged 4.7 RPG on the season (7th in MLB) they’ve been a bit lucky as their batting average (19th in MLB) and OPS (21st) don’t align with that number. Much of their success was early with the Rangers averaging 6 RPG through their first 7 games and they’ve dropped to just 3.4 RPG over their last 10. When we get to the relievers Houston has the 8th best bullpen ERA in the Majors and their pen has allowed only 4 HR’s on the season. The Texas bullpen numbers are not good but they were terrible early in the season and they’ve rebounded to pitch very well as of late. Over the last 10 games the Texas bullpen ERA is 3.07 and they’ve allowed opponents to hit just .186. We’re on the UNDER in this one. |
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04-27-22 | Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 217.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bulls offense has really struggled in this series and now they will be without a key piece as Zach LaVine is in health and safety protocol. A combination of great Bucks defense and poor Bulls offense has led to Chicago scoring just .94-points per possession in this series which is the lowest among all playoff teams. Milwaukee hasn’t been much better at 1.07PPP which is 13th worst out of 16 teams. In this series the Bulls have shot 39.8% overall and just 28% from beyond the arc. That’s significant considering the Bucks don’t defend the 3-point line well at all ranking 19th in the NBA in that defensive category. Milwaukee has overcome the loss of Khris Middleton with two straight huge games by Grayson Allan scoring 22-points on 8 of 12 shotting form the field including 5 of 7 from deep in Game 3. Then Allan put up 27-points on 10 of 12 shooting including 6 of 7 from downtown. The Bulls will make adjustments here and you cannot expect him to continue shooting that well here. Chicago has scored 95 or less in 3 of the four games and it’s going to be tough to score here without LaVine. The Under is the bet here. |
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04-27-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - Arizona has the worst offense in the Majors. They are dead last averaging 3 RPG, .182 team batting average, and .588 team OPS. The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their 18 games this season and they’ve already been shutout 4 times. They are facing Dodger lefty Urias who has allowed 1 ER in his last 10 innings and has faced the current Arizona line up in 93 total plate appearances and held those batters to a batting average of just .193. On top of that, as bad as Arizona has been offensively, their lowest numbers of the season have come vs left handed pitchers with a batting average of .162 and an average of only 2 runs per 9 innings. It looks like the DBacks may have some momentum after scoring 5 runs yesterday vs these Dodgers but they did so on only 4 hits. In the first 2 games of this series Arizona has total of 7 hits. The LA offense has been great in the first 2 games of this series scoring a total of 7 runs. They now face Arizona’s most consistent starter this season, Zac Gallen, who has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season. Both of those starts came vs a potent Mets line up that ranks 4th in the Majors in batting average. These 2 teams have combined to play 35 games this season and only 9 have gone Over the total. We look for another low scoring game this afternoon. |
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04-26-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 Runs +110 over Boston, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Boston’s Nick Pivetta is on the mound in this game and he has been downright terrible this year. He faced the Blue Jays at Fenway Park last week and lost that game 6-1 allowing 11 baserunners in just 4 innings (allowed 5 ER’s). For the season Pivetta’s ERA is 10.80 but he’s actually pitched worse than that as his xERA (expected ERA) is over 15.00! He is walking an average of 7 per 9 innings and allowing a whopping 3.09 HR’s per 9 innings. That’s a problem here vs a Toronto team that leads the Majors with 22 HR’s on the season. Opponents have averaged 6 RPG this year in games started by Pivetta. That’ll be a problem here as Boston is facing a pitcher who is allowing next to nothing this season. When facing the Sox last week, tonight’s starter Kevin Gausman, gave up just 1 ER and 8 strikeouts in 8 innings on the mound. He is averaging 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings and hasn’t walked a single batter this season. Gausman’s ERA is just 2.89 on the season but he’s actually been a bit unlucky so to speak with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed of .416 (defense & luck have a lot to do with a high BABIP against). He’s facing a Boston offense that has been struggling to say the least. The Red Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Jays have played 7 homes games this year and averaged 5.6 RPG in those contests. Laying the 1.5 runs with Toronto and getting plus money in that instance (+110) is a solid value in our opinion. |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat –6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET Tuesday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat's defense has been even better in this series by holding the Hawks to 1.030PPP which is the second-best number in the postseason behind the Bucks. Miami has held Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young to a pair of his worst offensive showings all season long. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG during the regular season and have won both home games versus the Hawks by double-digits in this series. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG during the reg ssn. Miami has covered 7 of the last eight on this court against the Hawks. |
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04-25-22 | Guardians +109 v. Angels | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
PITCHERS "ACTION": #963 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +110 over LA Angels, Monday at 9:35 PM ET - Shane Bieber gets the start for Cleveland and we like the value here. We were on Bieber in his most recent start, an 11-1 win over the White Sox, and we’re getting Cleveland’s top starter basically at even money. On the season Bieber has started 3 games, allowed just 4 ER’s, has 16 strikeouts to just 3 walks, and has a WHIP of 0.69. We also like the fact the Guardians ace has not faced the Angels in either of the last 2 seasons. Cleveland was just swept @ NYY over the weekend, yet even with that they still own the 3rd best run differential in the American League. Their offense ranks in the top 4 in MLB in RPG, batting average, and on base percentage. They will be facing Lorenzen, a career relief pitcher, on the hill for the Angels. Since the start of the 2019 season, Lorenzen has pitched in 100 games and started just 4 of those games. That includes 2 this season and he has allowed 5 ER’s allowed in 6.1 innings. His numbers haven’t been great the last 2 seasons with an ERA of 5.59 and 4.28 as a relief pitcher. Because he’s not used to long outings, never threw more than 30 pitches last season, we expect Lorenzen to struggle as a starter. He’s backed up by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA and has allowed 11 HR’s on the season, the 2nd most in MLB. While Cleveland was struggling with the Yankees over the weekend, the Angels were nearly swept at home vs the downtrodden Orioles. Their lone win was by a single run in a game where the O’s had 3 more hits than LA. We’ll take a top of the line starter at small dog money in this one. |
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04-25-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 213 | Top | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 213 Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - With this series even at 2 games apiece this becomes a huge swing game in the winners favor to advance. With that said we expect the defensive energy to be high for both teams. Pace is critical here and these two teams are the two lowest possession teams currently in the Playoffs. Not only that, but the Mavs have, on average, taken 16.8 seconds per field goal attempt which is slowest among all Playoff teams. Utah is faster at 14.7 seconds per FGA, but they’ve struggled to score as a byproduct of the Mavs perimeter defense and their lack of 3-point makes and attempts. Utah is reliant on 3-pointers with the 2nd most 3-point attempts per game during the regular season at 39.8 per game. They made 35.9% of those 3-point attempts during the regular season but have made just 324 % in the four games of this series. These two teams were both top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing less than .970-points per possession. The first two games of this series in Dallas had Totals posted of 208.5 and 206 so grab the extra value with the current number and bet UNDER! |
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04-24-22 | Heat -120 v. Hawks | Top | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -120 over Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - We are going to keep this one pretty simple in terms of analysis and back the Heat in Game 4. In the first two games of the series the Heat outscored the Hawks by a combined +34-points and then lost Game 3 by 1-point late. Miami has clearly been the dominant team in the series and are one play away from being up 3-0. The Heat have averaged 1.160-points per possession in the series, the Hawks have averaged 1.050PPP which is the 3rd worst number of all the teams in the first round. Let’s also point out the Heat were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA during the regular season allowing just 1.080PPP compared to the Hawks who ranked 26th worst, giving up 1.130PPP. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 14-7 SU record and even if Lowry can’t go they’ll get this road win and a commanding lead in the series. |
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04-24-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Texas @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - These 2 played a low scoring 2-0 game yesterday which sets us up nicely with a lower than anticipated total on Sunday afternoon. Despite not being able to put many runs on the board yesterday, these 2 teams are still highly capable with Texas averaging 5.2 RPG (4th in the Majors) and Oakland averaging 4.3 RPG (13th). Both starting pitchers have had their troubles this season and neither bullpen is very good. Cole Irvin starts for Oakland and he has allowed 8 ER’s this season and is giving up over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. His ERA of 4.32 looks acceptable but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this year is over 7.00. Irvin is a lefty and the Rangers have hit southpaws very well this season with a .278 team BA compared to just .210 vs right handers. Texas will send reliever Garrett Richards to the mound to make his first start of the season. He’s appeared in 4 games this season out of the pen and been terrible, walking an average of 9 per 9 innings and allowing over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. Similar to Irvin, his ERA looks OK at 4.50, however his xERA is actually almost 8.00. Both of these pitchers have been quite lucky this season and we think this total is too low. On top of that, once we get to the bullpens Texas relievers have been poor with the 3rd highest ERA in the league while allowing the most HR’s. Oakland’s bullpen has a much better ERA, however they’ve allowed a bunch of baserunners with a WHIP of 1.40 which is 2nd highest in MLB, so they’ve been a bit fortunate. With this low total we like the OVER. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - These two teams were 1st and 3rd in pace of play during the regular season at 100.3 and 100.9 possessions per game. Not only did they play fast, but they were also efficient offensively ranking 5th and 7th in OEFF at 1.144-points per possession and 1.147PPP. During the regular season those two key factors translated to nearly 116PPG for each team. In the Playoffs though, they’ve continued to play fast but their offensive numbers have dipped to 1.126PPP for the Grizzlies and 1.046PPP for the Wolves. What these two teams did especially well during the regular season was play defense when either at home or on the road. Minnesota owned the 7th best road defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.074-points per possession, Memphis was 9th on the road in DEFF giving up 1.109PPP. Seven of the 12 quarters in this series has seen 55 or less points being scored. Both teams struggled shooting the ball in Game 3 as the Wolves hit just 39% of their attempts, Memphis made 42%. This series has gotten chippy and will have an intense defensive attitude in Game 4 which will lead to an easy UNDER! |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Much has been made of Kevin Durant and his struggles in this series, but that is about to change here. Statistically, we are betting things return to normal for KD back in the friendly confines of Brooklyn. Durant shot just 9 of 24, 1 of 5 from 3 in Game 1. He then struggled in Game 2 by going 4 of 17 from the field and 1 of 2 from Deep. On the season he’s a 51.8% shooter from the filed and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Let’s also consider the Nets have average 1.160-points per possession in the two games even with his shooting woes. Boston has played extremely well in the first two games but now go on the road and face a veteran team in a must win situation. Don’t be misled by the Nets home numbers this season as Kyrie missed most of the home games due to Covid mandates. Brooklyn did go 7-2 SU their last nine home games and every one of those wins came by 5 or more points. We are banking Kyrie and KD will make a series of this yet and it has to start here. Lay it! |
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04-23-22 | Rangers v. A's -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oakland -125 over Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Texas is coming off an 8-1 win here last night. We like Oakland to bounce back today with Montas on the hill. Since he struggled in his opening start @ Philly he has been outstanding his last 2 starts allowing just 2 earned runs in 12.1 innings with 11 strikeouts and just 2 walks. Since the start of last season Montas has a whopping 224 strikeouts in just 204 innings. Today he faces a Texas line up that has hit just .215 vs right handers this season. The A’s will be facing Ranger’s left hander Perez who has been poor this season. Perez has allowed an average of 2 baserunners per inning in his 2 starts this season, both Texas losses. In his 2 starts the Rangers have lost by a combined 8 runs to the Rockies and Angels. He will be backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the Majors with Texas relievers logging the 2nd worst ERA in MLB and allowing 12 HR’s already this season, worst in the league. We like the surprising A’s, who have the 3rd best run differential in the American League, to get this win at home. |
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04-22-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Pitchers with action NOT listed: #913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs San Diego, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres offense went through a rough stretch from April 12 through April 17 where they scored 2 runs or less in 5 of 6 games. Despite that they are still 12th in MLB scoring 4.46 RPG. After that 6 game run, they have since scored 16 runs in their last 3 games. The Dodgers offense never hit that lull this season. They are 2nd in MLB scoring 5.43 RPG and they’ve put up at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 9 games. They have dangerous bats up and down their line up and should have a field day vs San Diego starter Martinez who has struggled with walks throughout his career along with giving up the long ball (1.5 HR’s allowed per 9 in his career and 2.7 this season). In his 2 starts this year Martinez has allowed 17 baserunners in 10 innings and giving up 3 long balls. LA starter Urias has a decent ERA of 3.86 through 2 starts but his xFIP is really high at 5.03 and his WHIP is 1.20 which tells us he is not pitching as well as some might think. His xERA (expected ERA) based on his performances this year is actually above 4.50. Urias is a lefty and the Padres have hit much better vs southpaws this season when compared to right handers. With 14 games being played today, that means 28 starting pitchers. In this game we have 2 of the top 7 hurlers (out of 28) with the highest xFIP this season which means both offenses should be successful. We like OVER in this one. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | Top | 111-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Bucks look like the Playoff Bucks from a year ago where teams have made adjustments to stop their offensive flow, but coach Bud doesn’t make any counter moves. Now the Bucks need to find a way to win without their second-best scorer Khris Middleton who is out with a knee injury. The Bulls struggled in the opener managing just 86-points in Game 1 on 32.3% shooting. In Game 2 the Bulls found a rhythm on offense adn shot 49.4% from the field. After struggling in Game 1, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in Game 2 by hitting 16 of 31 (51.6%) and scored a career playoff-high 41 points. In Game 1, the Bulls' “Big 3” of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine went 21 of 71 (29.6%) from the field. In Game 2 those three players were 33 of 62 (53.2%). Milwaukee is going to miss Middleton’s scoring and we don’t see anyone stepping up to fill the void. In Game 1 it wasn’t a case of the Bucks playing great, as we touched on, the Bulls couldn’t buy a basket. Milwaukee won a close game with Middleton going 5 of 20 from the field for 11-points. Chicago shot 48.5% at home this season and the atmosphere/energy will be high tonight in Game 3. The Bulls were 27-14 SU at home in the regular season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. Grab the points with the home dog. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - Both games have gone Over the number but we like this one to stay Under. In Game 2 the Warriors had another incredible shooting night at 55% overall and 42% from Deep (17 of 40) which helped that game go Over the number. These two teams had an insanely high scoring 3rd quarter in Game 2 of 74-points and we don’t see them duplicating that type of number here. Golden State won’t shoot as well on the road as they did at home where they made 33 of 75 3-pointers in the first two games. We doubt Jordan Poole can continue his torrid shooting on the road too as he’s accounted for 10 of 17 made 3-pointers for the Warriors. Golden State has averaged 1.300-points per possession in the two games which is not sustainable and significantly higher than the league average of 1.130PPP, which is what Denver is averaging. Denver has scored 107 and 106 points and we don’t see much changing here as the Warriors defense has been one of the best in the league all season long allowing 1.070-points per possession (2nd). Golden State was 14th in pace of play this season, Denver was 19th so neither wants to play fast. In fact, in the two playoff games these two these two teams have both averaged 15.2-seconds to get a shot up which is in the bottom half of all the teams left in the post season. Both games in this series have gone Over, yet the Total remains the same? Bet UNDER! |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -118 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -118 over Baltimore, Thursday at 3:37 PM ET - This will be the fourth game of this series with the A’s taking 2 of the first 3. Baltimore’s lone victory in this series was yesterday’s 1-0 win and the O’s only run was unearned. The Orioles have scored a grand total of 3 runs in this series, 1 in each game. That’s actually not out of character for this offense that has scored a grand total of 24 runs in 12 games this year for an average of 2 RPG, last in the league. They’ve actually scored 2 or fewer runs in 75% of their games so far this season (9 of their 12 games). It’s amazing they’ve actually won 4 of their 12 games on the season. The A’s had an off night at the plate yesterday, although they did out hit the O’s in the loss. Despite putting up a zero yesterday, the A’s have scored 60 runs this season which is good for 7th most in MLB. We expect them to bounce back in the series finale on Friday facing Baltimore pitcher, Tyler Wells, who has a WHIP of 1.76 this season and struggled with walks allowing an average of almost 6.5 per 9 innings. He has allowed 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings this season, his first year as a starter after working out of the bullpen last season. While we expect Oakland to have success offensively, this one should be another struggle for the Orioles offense. They face Paul Blackburn who has allowed 2 ER’s this year in 10 innings of work with an outstanding xFIP of 1.89. Unlike Wells, the Oakland starter has not struggled with his control with a strikeout to walk ratio of 9 to 1. When they do go to the bullpen the A’s relievers have been solid with an ERA of 2.89 on the year. Oakland won’t need to do much offensively to pick up this win and we’ll side with the host in the series finale. |
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04-20-22 | Bulls +10 v. Bucks | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +10 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - We are betting Game 2 is going to be a dog fight and we like the double-digits with the Bulls. Game 1 of this series was ugly to say the least. The Bucks averaged .93-points per possession in the opener, the Bulls .85PPP. Those numbers were well below both teams' season averages of 1.14PPP (Bucks) and 1.12PPP (Bulls). The Bulls had an especially bad shooting night at 32% which is WELL below their season average of 48% which was the 3rd best shooting percentage in the NBA this season. Chicago also hit 36.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season but hit just 7 of 37 from deep or 19%. The Bucks didn’t shoot overly well either but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bucks were one of the worst home favorites in the NBA this season and their +/- at home wasn’t great at +4.2PPG which is down from +8.9PPG a year ago. Milwaukee was 14-24 ATS at home laying points this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +4.9PPG. Consider this, the Bulls have been double-digit dogs just two times this season and they are 2-0 ATS. Chicago has covered 8 of the last eleven here and will keep this game close throughout. |
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04-20-22 | White Sox v. Guardians -130 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Pitchers with action NOT listed: #932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -135 over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET (Game 1 of Double Header) - Cleveland should be hungry for a win here after just getting swept at home by the red hot Giants (won 6 of their last 7 games). The Indians are undervalued right now with just a 4-5 record, yet they have the highest run differential in the American League at +11. They send Shane Bieber to the mound who has pitched 10 innings this year allowing just 4 hits and 3 ER with a WHIP of 0.70. Bieber’s ERA has been below 3.30 in 3 straight seasons with Cleveland and we rate him as their top starting pitcher. The White Sox, despite their 6-3 record, are hitting just .197 vs right handers this season and they’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. Cleveland’s offense has been one of the best in the Majors ranking in the top 4 in runs scored, batting average, and OPS. The Guardians will face Dallas Keuchel who has been trending in the wrong direction since the start of last season. A year ago Keuchel had an ERA of 5.28 and allowed 248 base runners in just 162 innings pitched. He allowed 3 ER’s in 5 innings in his first start this season vs Seattle and struggled big time in spring training with the 4th highest ERA among starters. He faced Cleveland 3 times last season allowing 12 earned runs in just 16 innings of work. We like Cleveland in Game 1 of 2 at home on Wednesday |
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04-19-22 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Texas vs Seattle, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - If you can get a low total like this on a Texas game early in the season, it’s work a look to the Over. We feel the Rangers will be an Over team this year, especially early on before the oddmakers catch up with them. Their offense has been very solid and their pitching not so much. The Rangers are 3rd in MLB averaging 5.5 RPG and 30th in runs allowed at 6.6. So games involving Texas this year are averaging a whopping 12.1 RPG. They’ve had only 1 game this season fall under 7 total runs. Starting pitcher Gray made 1 start this year on April 8th and allowed 3 ER in 4 innings but hasn’t pitched since due to a blister on this throwing hand. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) vs players in the Seattle line up he’s faced in his career is a terrible 6.20. The Seattle offense struggled out of the gate not topping 4 runs in any of their first 6 games but they are starting to come around plating 5 or more in 3 of their last 4 (averaging 6 RPG over their last 4). Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. He is coming off a Cy Young season with Toronto but we feel that he is vastly overvalued, thus the low total here. His career ERA is north of 4.00 and prior to last season his FIP was never lower than 4.30 (in previous 5 seasons) and 4.20 is average. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) was north of 1.30 in each of his first 8 seasons. In his 2 starts this year he has allowed 16 base runners in 13 innings and 7 ER’s. Ray is a lefty and Texas is hitting over .300 as a team vs south paws this year. This total is set too low and we’ll grab the Over. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - It’s do-or-die here for the Grizzlies after the opening series loss at home in Game 1. The Grizzlies didn’t look interested from the opening tip and thought they were going to cruise to a victory. The Wolves started hot, gained confidence, and played well throughout. We don’t see Minnesota shooting 50% in Game 2 or outrebounding the Grizzlies by a +11 margin. Minny shot well above their season average from beyond the arc, Memphis shot well below. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-11 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-12 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. The Wolves were 21-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-4 SU at home off a loss this season. |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 230 total points in the opener but 70 of those points came in the 4th quarter. Golden State shot exceptionally well in the game at 52% overall and 46% from Deep. The Warriors scored 1.28 points per possession which was much higher than their season average of 1.126PPP. The pace of play wasn’t overly fast as the Warriors had 95 possessions to the Nuggets 94 which are both less than league average. Over the course of the regular season the NBA average for a team to shoot on offense was 14.5 second and the Warriors took 15.8 seconds per possession, the Nuggets were 14.7. Denver was near their season average for offensive efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Golden State finished the regular season as one of the best overall defenses in the NBA ranking top 5 in most key categories. Denver was 10th in 3-point percentage defense so don’t expect the Warriors to light it up from deep again with the Nuggets making some adjustments. This game stays below 220. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz -5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -5 @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - I am going contrarian here as the numbers tell us its not time to use the Zig-Zag theory in this series. The Jazz got off to a slow start in Game 1 with an offensive efficiency rating or .91 in the 1st quarter which is well below their season average of 1.160PPP. For the game the Jazz shot 43% as a team overall and 32% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 47.1% and 36% which both rank in the top 11 of the NBA. Utah has had some issues with closing out games recently but the confidence gained in the opener should carry over here. Dallas averaged 1.010PPP in Game 1 which is lower than their season statistics but it’s still higher than anticipated with the absence of Luka Doncic. The Mavs will struggle to score again in this contest as Brunson and Dinwiddie can’t carry a team like Luka does. As we mentioned previously, the Jazz are one of five teams with offensive and defensive efficiency numbers good enough to win it all this year. Back them here as a short favorite. |
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04-17-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 229.5 | Top | 86-93 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30 PM ET - We have two of the better offenses squaring off here with a Bucks team that is the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.152-points per possession, while the Bulls are 13th at 1.132PPP. The Bucks have slipped defensively this season to 13th in DEFF allowing 1.118PPP while the Bulls are 22nd giving up 1.136PPP. The Bucks are 3rd in points scored per game, 12th in shooting and the 5th best 3-point shooting percentage. Chicago is 13th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 4th in 3PT%. Neither team defends the 3-point line well at all with the Bulls ranking 27th in 3PT% defense, the Bucks are 19th giving up 35.6%. Milwaukee is the home team here and they will dictate tempo which should be fast. The Bucks are 6th in pace of play on the season with 99.9 possessions per game, since the All-Star break though they have played faster yet at 101.4 possessions per game. In the three most recent meetings between these two teams (since March 4th) they have combined for 230, 234 and 233 total points. They should get to 230+ here too. |
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04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 1 PM ET Sunday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat put up those impressive statistics with a roster that was hit harder than most with Covid issues. The Hawks have won two emotional games in the play-in contest and will have a hard time getting up for a third big game in a row. Not to mention they lost their starting center Capela versus the Cavs. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. These two teams met on April 8th in a meaningless game for the Heat (had sown up the #1 seed) and a purposeful game for Atlanta, yet the Heat won by 4-points. This time around it’s going to be much worse, and we call for a BLOWOUT! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 5 of the last six here against the Hawks. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Sat 3:30 PM ET - We’re not sure everyone fully realizes just how good this Grizzlies team is and we feel they could make a serious run in the West. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-10 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-11 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. Minnesota is coming off a big home win over the Clippers and celebrated like they won the NBA Finals and we expect a letdown here. The Wolves were 20-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and the home team has won all four meetings between these two teams this season by an average of 16PPG. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies OVER 234 | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 55 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies 3:30 PM ET - PACE! These two teams are going to play fast which means plenty of extra possessions for each team and more scoring opportunities. The Wolves are the fastest paced team in the league at 100.9 possessions per game. Memphis is 3rd in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. Not only do these teams get up and down the court in a fast manner but shots go up quickly. The Wolves average a FG attempts every 13.8 seconds on offense which is 2nd fastest, Memphis is 7th at 14.1 seconds. It typically doesn’t take opponents long to get a shot up against these defenses either as teams playing Memphis take 14.3 seconds to get a field goal attempt up, Minnesota foes take 14.4 seconds to attempt to score. The Grizzlies are 1st in the league in fastbreak points per game, the Wolves are 4th. Both teams also struggle to stop opposing fastbreak points per game with the Wolves ranking 26th worst in the NBA, Memphis is 21st. These two teams are also top 8 in offensive efficiency as the Grizzlies average 1.147-points per possession, the Wolves are 7th at 1.144PPP. Minnesota has gone OVER in 36 of 52 road games this season, Grizzlies OVER in 7 of their last eight when playing with 3 or more days rest. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the O/U posted was 240 and the two teams combined for 233 total points. In that recent game the Grizzlies shot just 39% which is well below their season average of 46.1%. This has all the makings of a shootout! |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 105-101 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We like this situation for several reasons. First the win/loss results of each teams play-in games with the Clippers home off a loss and the Pelicans on the road off a win. Despite not having their two best players for portions of the season (Leonard has been out all year) the Clippers own a 25-16 SU record at home this season with a +/- of +2.5PPG. Again, despite injuries the Clippers are a respectable 22-19 SU off a loss this season, 11-8 SU at home in that situation. L.A. has played well in Paul George’s return going 7-2 SU their last nine games allowing 109 or less points defensively in 5 straight games. The Clippers hold a decisive advantage over the Pelicans defensively with a unit that ranks 11th in PPG allowed, 6th in FG% defense and 7th in 3-point percentage. Comparatively, the Pelicans rank 13th in points allowed, 24th in opponents FG% and 26th defending the 3-point line. Offensively these two teams are similar and we would even lean towards the Clippers on that end of the floor with the return of George and Powell. Both teams rank in the low 20’s in scoring and overall FG% but the Clippers are by far the better 3-point shooting team at 37.4% compared to the Pels 33.2%. We like the Clippers who have covered 5 of their last six as a Chalk, against a Pelicans teams that is 1-5 ATS their last six against a team with an above .500 record. |
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04-13-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have played really well since they traded for CJ McCollum shortly before the All-Star break. Since the break the Pelicans are just 13-10 SU but they have the 6th best average point differential in the league at +4.7PPG. In that same time frame, they own the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings (1.181PPP) and defensive efficiency rating (1.133PPP) and they did that with Brandon Ingram missing several games. The young Spurs have played well also but they are hovering around league average in both OEFF and DEFF for the season. For the year the Spurs are 18-23 SU on the road but do own a +/- of +0.4PPG. This game comes down to the veteran leadership of McCollum, Ingram and Valanciunas who are better than the top 3 for the Spurs. New Orleans by double-digits. |