Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - NFL scoring as a whole is down this season with the average total points scored in a game being 42.8PPG. Last year at this same time NFL games were averaging 47PPG. In this contest we get two struggling offenses and two upper echelon defenses. The Colts are 25th in Yards Per Play offense this season at 5.0, Denver is 16th at 5.4. When it comes to total yards per game, passing YPG, rushing YPG and points scored these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every statistical offensive category. When it comes to scoring, both teams have been awful with the Broncos averaging 16.5PPG (30th) and the Colts scoring 14.3PPG which is last in the NFL. When it comes to the all-important Yards Per Point statistics, these two are last and next to last in the NFL taking more than 20-yards to score 1-point. The defenses for each team are a different story though with the Colts allowing 297YPG (6th best) and the Broncos giving up 284.8YPG (4th). These two defenses don’t give up big plays either with Denver allowing 4.9-Yards Per Play, Indianapolis gives up 4.9. Denver is allowing 17PPG on the season, Indianapolis gives up 21.3PPG. The Colts are on a 9-0 Under streak their last nine games, Denver is Under in 11 of their last fifteen overall. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday. |
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10-04-22 | Angels -135 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Angels (Lorenzen) -135 vs. Oakland A’s (Irvin) – 9 :40PM ET - In the last 15 days the Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball with a .289 team average while producing 59 total runs in 13 games. Over the course of that same time the A’s are hitting just .222 as a team and have a 3-7 SU record their last ten games. LA is 8-2 SU their last ten games. These same two teams just met in late September and these two pitchers had opposite results. Irvin lost his start against the Angels 2-4 while allowing 9 hits, 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of work. Lorenzen was a -170 favorite and won his start 4-1. He threw 5 strong innings allowing 3 hits and 0 earned runs while striking out 8. The Angles have a net +/- of runs per game of +1.90 per in their last ten contests. Oakland on the other hand has a negative differential of minus -1.30 runs per game in their last ten. Back the hot team here in Los Angeles. |
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10-03-22 | Cubs +116 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs +115 over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Cubs are playing extremely well down the stretch despite their record and the Reds, who have 99 losses, are not. Chicago has won 10 of their last 11 games including a 3 game sweep of Philadelphia who is fighting for a wild card spot. The Cubs also just swept this Cincinnati team over the weekend and in a weird situation, they now close the season out with 3 more games vs the Reds on the road. In their series vs the Reds, the Cubs outscored Cincy 16-3. The Reds scored 1 run in each game and they have now averaged just 1.8 RPG over their last 10 with a team batting average of .170. They are not just 1-9 their last 10 games with their only win during that stretch coming at Milwaukee by a final score of 2-1. They have scored more than 3 runs just ONCE since September 17th. It won’t get any easier for the Cincinnati offense tonight facing Chicago rookie Wesneski who has made 3 starts since getting called up in September, allowing just 4 ER’s in 18.1 innings in those 3 starts. Opponents are hitting just .198 off Wesneski since getting called up. Chicago will face Hunter Greene who has made 3 starts since coming off the injured list. Those have been solid starts for Greene, but the fact is, because Cincinnati’s offense has been so poor, they’ve lost all 3 of those outings. Greene has made 23 starts this season and the Reds have won 5 of those starts. FIVE! He’s the Cubs twice this season pitching a total of 9 innings allowing 8 ER’s. Cincy continues to have one of the worst bullpens in MLB with an ERA of 4.66 and over their last 10 that number balloons to 5.36. The Cubs bullpen has been outstanding as of late with an ERA of 2.12 their last 10. We feel this is a very solid value play on the Cubs who should be favored in this one. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020. |
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10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
#259/260 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 LA Chargers vs Houston Texans, 1 PM ET - Injuries have potentially derailed the Charger season with QB Herbert nursing a rib injury, DE Joey Bosa out with a groin injury and multiple O-line men out for the season. The injuries on the O-line have forced the Chargers to start two rookies who have been outmatched early on. With that thought in mind we expect a heavy dose of the running game for the Chargers as they try to protect Herbert and exploit the Texans weakness defensively. Houston is 32nd or last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 202.3 on 5.6-yards per rush given up. LAC has struggled to run the football at 2.6-yards per carry and 59-yards per game, but they’ve also faced the best rush D in the NFL in Jacksonville and the 9th best in KC. The Chargers have faced three quality offenses in Jacksonville (6th total YPG), Kansas City (7th) and the Raiders who are 18th so their points per game allowed of 28PPG is higher than it should be. Houston on the other hand is 29th in total yards per game gained at 287.3YPG, 25th in passing, 27th in rushing and 26th in PPG so don’t expect a huge scoring game from them. These two teams rank 19th and 23rd in Yards Per Point offense meaning they lack big plays and tend to grind out drives for scores. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays. |
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10-01-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
#211/212 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – Indiana vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in college football so we expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game. Indiana runs a play every 17 seconds which is 1st in the nation and Nebraska every 22 seconds which is 15th nationally. The defenses in this match up should provide lots of scoring opportunities to their opponents. The Husker defense has been brutal all season long. Throwing out their game vs FCS North Dakota, the Nebraska defense is allowing 42 PPG on the season vs Northwestern, Georgia Southern, and Oklahoma. Each of those teams scored their season high in points (minus FCS games) vs this Nebraska defense. Even a fairly pedestrian NW offense put up 31 points and over 500 yards! They rank outside the top 100 in scoring, rush & pass defense. The Huskers did fire their defensive coordinator after allowing 49 points to Oklahoma and appointed Bill Busch, their special teams coordinator to call plays on the defensive side of the ball. We don’t think it will matter. If the Huskers were EVER going to rally and play tough on defense it was after they fired head coach Frost going into their game vs Oklahoma. They fell flat again on that side of the ball giving up almost 600 yards. The Hoosier offense has been a bright spot this year averaging over 400 YPG and 29 PPG. Even vs 2 top tier defenses (Illinois & Cincinnati) both in the top 11 nationally in YPP allowed, the Hoosiers scored 23 and 24 points. On the other side of the ball the Indiana defense has not been good allowing 75 points in their last 2 games vs WKU & Cincinnati. Last week the Bearcats had 38 points at halftime before calling off the dogs in a 45-24 win. While their defense has been poor, the Nebraska offense has moved the ball this year averaging 455 YPG which ranks them 31st nationally. QB Thompson, a Texas transfer, has been solid averaging 250 YPG passing on 65% completions. He should shred an IU defense that has allowed almost 700 yards passing the last 2 weeks. Last year these 2 met in Indiana and the final score was 38-31 with almost 1,000 yards of total offense. We anticipate a fast paced, high scoring game in Lincoln on Saturday. |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home. |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane. |
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09-29-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in MLB squaring off in this one. The A’s rank 28th or lower (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. The Angels rank 24th or lower in the first 3 categories listed above. In the first 2 games of this series these teams put up 7 and 5 total runs and tonight we have better pitchers on the mound for both teams compared to the first 2 meeting of this series. LA’s Ohtani is allowing an average of just 1.3 ER over his last 10 starts (average start of 5.2 innings). He’s been dominant at home this season with an ERA of 2.00 and in 81 innings pitched he has allowing only 63 hits with a 109 strikeouts. He’s faced Oakland twice this season and he has an ERA of 1.54 in those 2 meetings. Ohtani is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the Majors 12 per 9 innings pitched and the Oakland offense averages almost 9 K’s per 9 innings so lots of swings and misses tonight. Oakland goes with lefty Irvin tonight. He’s faced the Angels 3 times this season with an ERA of 2.54. He’s coming off a couple poor outings, however those were vs the Mets & Astros, two of the top offensive teams in MLB. We expect him to pitch much better tonight vs an LA team he’s had success against and the Angels are averaging just 3.5 RPG this season vs left handers. The 2 have faced off 15 times this season and 11 of those games have totaled 7 or fewer runs. The UNDER is 21-8-2 last 31 meetings between these AL West rivals. We’ll call for another UNDER tonight in LA. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
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09-27-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 8.5 RUNS St. Louis @ Milwaukee, 7:40 PM ET - St Louis is coming off two low scoring series against the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in baseball with a league leading 2.83 ERA. The Padres own the 11th best team ERA but in the last 15 days they’ve been especially hot with a 2.62 ERA. The Cardinals have been shutout three times in their last seven games which has driven this total down from where it should be. These two teams are in the top 10 in total runs scored this season and the Brewers have been especially hot with 5.16 runs scored per game in their last 12. Milwaukee will send Adrian Houser to the hill with his 4.62 ERA and 6-9 record. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season against the Cardinals, giving up nine runs (six earned) in 9 2/3 innings of work. The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas who is 11-13 SU on the year with a 3.35 ERA. Mikolas has lost his last three starts and is 2-4 with a 3.07 ERA over his last seven. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
#489/490 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Neither offense has looked good thus far with the Giants scoring 40 points in 2 games while Dallas has put up just 23 points. The Giants are averaging 5.0 YPP this season (20th in the NFL) and Dallas just 4.7 YPP (31st). With the Cowboys playing a back up QB (Rush) we expect them to keep the ball on the ground quite a bit tonight. The NY defense has been susceptible to the run this season allowing 4.9 YPC and look for Dallas to lean on RB’s Elliott and Pollard rather than a QB making his 3rd career start. The Giants already run the ball often averaging 33 carries per game which is 5th most in the NFL. Jones is an average at best QB who has averaged just 18 PPG in his 8 prime time appearances. Needless to say, we don’t expect either signal caller to light it up through the air tonight. Overall both defenses look like the stronger units in each team with each ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. Each has given up just 36 total points so far on the season. The ground games of each team will eat clock tonight and with the anticipated lack of big plays from the QB position, this game turns into a grinder. Take the Under. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#463/464 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 53 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo has put up 72 points in 2 games and we don’t see Miami slowing them down here. The Fins actually rank dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.8 and in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing 8.7. In 2 games last year vs the Fins the Buffalo Bills scored 61 points and we see no reason to think they won’t top 30 again. The difference this year? Miami’s offense looks like they’ll be able to keep up. They scored 42 points last week in a win @ Baltimore and QB Tagovailoa had 6 TD passes. The Fins put up a ridiculous 547 total yards in the game and they are tied with Buffalo with the 2nd best YPP offense in the NFL at 6.7. While the Bills defense has been solid, they faced the Rams with QB Stafford’s injured elbow and a Tennessee team that lost all of their key WR’s from last year and have downgraded fairly big on the offensive line. Sunday will be a different animal for the Buffalo defense to face and they are really banged up on the D Line and in the secondary with both starting safeties potentially out along with starting CB Jackson (out). Miami’s defense looked good vs a pedestrian New England offense (12 PPG on the season) but last week they were blitzed for 38 points vs Baltimore. Buffalo scored 41 points last week in the first THREE QUARTERS and then didn’t score after that because they had a huge lead. We don’t foresee the Bills shutting down Miami so both teams will have to keep scoring in this one. Over is the play. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois v. Kentucky UNDER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54 Points – Northern Illinois vs Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that stood out to us immediately was the pace of play for both teams. Kentucky takes 29.2 seconds to run a play which is the 123rd slowest tempo in college football. NIU plays at the exact same pace. UK is 111th in plays per game at 62.5. No. Illinois is 107th at 63-plays per/game. With a limited number of plays that means you need big plays to score a lot of points. UK is 78th in Yards Per Play at 5.3, NIU is 49th at 5.9. Kentucky hosted another MAC team in Miami OH earlier this season and that game finished with 50-total points. MIA OH was predicted as the best team in the conference in preseason rankings and they managed just 290-total yards of offense and 13-points against the Cats. Northern Illinois has given up 38-points in each of their last two games, but those big numbers came against the 14th highest scoring team in CFB and the 26th highest. Both teams have big conference games on deck so expect a sluggish game throughout. |
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09-23-22 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8 PM ET - Terrible weather in Minnesota tonight with 10+ MPH winds blowing in, cool weather, and possible rain. Not conducive for scoring runs. The starting pitchers should also lend to a low scoring game. Ohtani starts for LA and he has been fantastic all season. He’s striking out almost 12 per 9 innings and over his last 10 starts he’s allowing just 1.7 ER’s with an average of 6 IP. Over his last 4 starts he’s allowed just 2 ER over 27 innings pitched. He’s facing a struggling Minnesota offense that is averaging less than 3 RPG over their last 10 and they rank 22nd in runs scored since the All Star Break. The Angel offense has been one of the worst all season long. They rank 26th in RPG, 25th in batting average and 26th in OPS. They also strike out nearly 10 times per 9 innings. They are 27th in runs scored since the All Star Break and are averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They face Minnesota’s Varland who is making his 3rd start of the season. He had one very solid start vs a talented Yankee line up (2 ER allowed), struggled a bit vs Cleveland, but has 10 strikeouts in 10 IP which should match up well with LA’s strikeout prone line up. Varland had fantastic numbers in the Minors and nobody in the Angels line up has ever seen him. Let’s go UNDER the total in tonight’s game. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |
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09-20-22 | Red Sox v. Reds +103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +100 over Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Both teams had yesterday off and both are out of the playoff race. Both teams have been struggling as well with Boston winning just 4 of their last 11 and the Reds winning 2 of their last 11. However, Cincinnati did show some life in their most recent 5 games series at division leading St Louis. Cincy won 2 of those games and had 2 losses by a single run. They send their hottest pitcher to the mound tonight as Lodolo has allowed an average of 2 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts. At home this year Lodolo has a very solid ERA of 2.77 and over his last 3 starts his ERA is 2.28. The Reds have won 8 of his 13 starts since he came back to the big leagues in early July. They have also won 7 of his last 9 home starts. Boston sends Bello to the hill and the Sox have won just once in his 10 starts this season. His road ERA is north of 7.00 with a WHIP of nearly 2.00. He has made 4 road starts this season and Boston has lost all 4 by a combined score of 23-10. The Cincinnati offense has been much better at home this year hitting .250 and averaging nearly 5 RPG. We like them to have success vs Bello while Cincy’s starter Lodolo continues his red hot run. Take the Reds at home. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#291/292 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - First off the weather looks good tonight in Philly. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70’s with very light winds. There is a chance of rain but not much and if it does rain it looks spotty. Key is the wind (5 MPH) which won’t affect either passing game. Both offenses looked in midseason form last week with Philly putting up 6.3 YPP vs Detroit and Minnesota averaging 6.5 YPP vs Green Bay. The Eagles had 38 points through 3 quarters and took their foot off the gas up 17 which almost cost them. They didn’t put up a single point in the 4th yet still almost hit 40. Minnesota had 23 points vs GB but were able to rely heavily on the run after building a 20-0 lead. After getting up by 20, the Vikings ran another 26 offensive plays and 16 of those were runs as they were taking time off the clock. In the first half when using the full complement of their offense, Minnesota was able to score points in 3 of their 6 possessions including 2 TD’s. Neither defense was great at the line of scrimmage with each allowing more than 6 YPC last week. Now with both facing solid rushing attacks we should see similar results tonight which will really open up the passing attack on each side. Both teams were successful running the ball last week and that led to Hurts & Minny QB Cousins to combine for 41 completions in 64 attempts for 520 passing yards. And remember, Cousins was facing one of the top secondary’s in the NFL (Packers). We also expect a faster than normal paced game in this one. Last week Minnesota and GB each ran 61 plays and that was with the Vikings milking the clock in the 4th quarter and the Packers were the slowest paced team in the NFL last season and we expect them to look the same this year. Philly & Detroit ran a total of 138 offensive snaps in an up tempo game. The projected score at this total is Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 23 and our model has both of these teams scoring above those numbers. Over is the play tonight. |
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09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #968 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs vs. Detroit Tigers, 7 PM ET - Baltimore is in desperation mode as they sit 4-games back in the Wild Card race with time running out on the regular season. The Tigers are the perfect opponent to cut into that deficit. Detroit is 55-91 on the season and have a season net run differential of minus -173 which ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Baltimore will send Tyler Wells to the mound who is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander who is 3-10 on the season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with an ERA over 10.00, allowing 28 total hits, 19 runs in 18.3 innings of work. What’s significant for our bet against him here is that the Tigers lost those four starts by an average of 4.25 runs per game. Detroit really struggles against right-handed starters this season hitting jut .213 as a team and scoring 3.07 runs/9 innings. We will lay the 1.5 runs in this one. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#263/264 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins. We expect a similar situation on Sunday. Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game. The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season. Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season. In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD. Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP). The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards. They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach. The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game. In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game. There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD. There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer. The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here. Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL. Running eats clock and shortens the game. These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points. The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number. Under is the play. |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC scored 44 points by themselves last week vs a really banged up Arizona defense so many will be rushing to bet this Over based on that result alone. We think there is value on the Under in this one. A division game on a short week would lend itself to the Under when the total is set this high. Thursday night NFL totals set higher than 51 have gone Under the total at a 68% rate lifetime. Being division rivals, these 2 teams know each other very well. Last year they totaled 54 and 62 points although the 2nd game was in OT. However, a closer look reveals both games were looking like sure Unders but both teams piled on points late in each game. In the 2 games combined these two rolled up 31 total points with less than 2:30 remaining in regulation (and OT). That means that 27% of the scoring in those 2 games came with less than 2:30 left in the contest. While many will focus on the offensive numbers from last week we were impressed with both defenses. KC held a very potent Arizona offense to just 282 total yards on 4.5 YPP. The Cards had only 7 points entering the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach. The Chargers defense held an upgraded Las Vegas offense (added WR Adams) to 19 points on 320 total yards. The LA offense was far from spectacular with 24 points on 355 total yards. Thus, three of the four units in this game (LA offense, LA defense, and KC defense) have us looking Under this week and we don’t expect the KC offense to put up nearly 500 yards and 44 points again this week vs a much better defense (and healthier defense). Under is the play in the AFC West game. |
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09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs (-130) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Reds are in a free fall losing 6 straight games including a 4 game sweep at home at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that series the Reds were outscored 23-8 and only collected 23 total hits for an average of less than 6 hits per game. St Louis is surging winning 33 of their last 45 games and they’ve built a 7 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. The Cards are also chasing the Mets to try and earn a bye in the wild card round. Mikolas is on the mound and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.23 ERA allowing just 59 hits in 89 innings pitched. He’s coming off a poor outing, however that was on the road vs where his numbers are quite a bit higher, and he’s had an extra day off to rest up between starts. In his 1 start at home vs the Reds this season he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 ER. Cincy is struggling at the plate right now and we expect them to have problems plating runs tonight. That shouldn’t be a problem for St Louis. They will be facing Chase Anderson who has pitched only 9 innings this season, but 2.1 of those innings have come vs the Cardinals. They faced him twice just 2 weeks ago and Anderson gave up 7 ER’s in only 2.1 innings. On the season he’s allowed 3 home runs in just 9 innings which is a potential big problem here vs the Cards who are averaging 1.3 HR’s per game and have hit the most round trippers in MLB since the All Star Break. Anderson is backed up by the worst bullpen in MLB (highest ERA and 2nd highest WHIP) so we don’t expect the offense to stop when he exits. Cincinnati is just 27-43 on the road this year and vs teams over .500 they have the 2nd fewest wins in the Majors with a record of 25-53. We like the host Cardinals to win this one by 2+ runs. |
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09-14-22 | Orioles v. Nationals +135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Nationals +130 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - This sets up nicely with a big underdog win on Wednesday with the Nats. Washington is 25th in runs/9 innings scored on the season but 10th in team batting average at .252. The Nationals though have put up 74 runs in their last 14 games or 5.28 runs per game which is 4th highest in baseball. Baltimore can’t say the same as they’ve scored 49 runs in that same span of 14 games and average just 4.23 runs/9 innings which is 21st in MLB. In comparing each team's last ten games we find the Nats are hitting .308 as a team while scoring 5.30 runs/9 innings. The Orioles are putting up just 3.87 runs/9 innings their last ten games and hitting just .220. Baltimore is starting pitcher Alexander Well who is a reliever so it’s going to be a heavy bullpen game for the O’s. Washington will counter with Patrick Corbin who doesn’t have great numbers at first glance with a 6-18 record and 6.30 ERA for the year. Most recently, Corbin has faced a brutally tough schedule which included starts against the Mets and Phillies twice, the Braves and Dodgers who all rank top 6 in runs scored per game. We like the situation here with the home dog. |
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09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are struggling to score runs with 39 scored in their last 12 games or 3.25 per game. The Mets are 5th in baseball in total runs scored on the season at 666 in 141 games. New York is putting up an average of 5.52 runs per 9/innings over the course of their last ten games. In the Mets last two games they outscored Miami 20-6. Chicago has been shutout twice in their last ten games and scored 3 or less in six games. Looking closer, in their last ten games the Mets are hitting .297 as a team versus right-handed pitchers and scoring 6.28 runs/9innings. The Cubs are hitting .239 as a team vs. righties in their last ten games scoring 3.68 runs/9 innings. NY will send Chris Bassett who is 13-7 SU on the season with a 3.24 ERA. In his last ten starts though Bassett has allowed 2.23 Earned Runs Per game while allowing just 5.46 hits. The Cubs will counter with young Javier Assad who is 0-1 in three starts with a 2.93 ERA. He was recently roughed up by the Reds in 5.1 innings when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits. The Mets get a big home win in this game as they battle the Braves for the Division lead. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points. |
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09-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 8 PM ET - There will be plenty of runs scored in the higher altitude of Denver Saturday night when the D’backs take on the Rockies. In the last 15-days no team in baseball has scored more runs than Arizona who has put up 88 runs in 14 games going into Friday night. These same two teams just put up 23 runs Friday. Colorado scores an average of 5.76 runs per game at home with their home contests averaging 11.44 runs. The Rockies have hit lefties extremely well of late with a team average of .284 in their last ten games. Arizona is white hot while facing righties with a .302 team average in their last ten games while averaging 5.0 runs per 9 innings. Neither pitcher has us scared as Bumgarner is 6-13 SU for the D’Backs with a 4.83 ERA this season. Urena for the Rockies is even worse with a 3-6 record and 6.13 ERA. Both teams score a bunch again Saturday. |
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09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
#370 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -12.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - ODU is coming off one of their biggest upsets in school history knocking off Virginia Tech last week 20-17 despite getting outgained by 100 yards in the game. VT under a new HC and new schemes on both sides of the ball imploded with 5 turnovers in the game, which led directly to 17 of ODU’s 20 points. The Monarch offense was not good averaging just 3.6 YPP and getting beat at the line of scrimmage putting up only 2.5 YPC. They scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game to pick up the win and the only TD the scored prior to that was a fumble return. ECU comes in with the opposite scenario. They outplayed one of the top teams in the country, NC State, yet lost 21-20. The Pirates outgained the Wolfpack, who many picked to be the top team in the ACC this season, but missed a late FG and had a punt blocked and returned for a TD. The Pirates held up well in the trenches averaging 4.3 YPC vs one of the top defensive lines in the nation. The ECU defense held the NC State offense to just 14 points on 344 total yards. That’s a Wolfpack offense that averaged 31 PPG and 414 YPG last season and brought back most of their key players including QB Leary. Offensively, the Pirates have a huge edge at QB in this one with Ahlers starting for the 5th straight season! He has thrown for more than 10,000 career yards with 90 total TD’s. ODU QB Wolff took over midway through last season and was fairly average. Last week, in their fortunate win, he completed only 40% of his passes and was under constant pressure (weak OLine for ODU). The Monarch fans stormed the field last week and now ODU must travel after that huge win. ECU will be out for blood here and we’ll call for any easy win. |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -17 over New Mexico, Friday at 9 PM ET - Boise will come out with a chip on their shoulder here after getting blitzed @ Oregon State last weekend 34-17. The Broncos first half offensively was a disaster due to turnovers. They had the ball 9 times in the first half and turned the ball over on 4 of those possessions and missed a short FG on another. In all they had 5 turnovers in the game which killed any offensive momentum they could gather. After the break BSU was much better scoring 17 points and punting just once. That loss prevents them from overlooking this game @ New Mexico as the Broncos cannot afford to go 0-2 to start the season. The Lobos won big last week vs FCS Maine but not much can be taken from that game vs a vastly inferior opponent. They dominated the stats, as we to be expected, but also ran 26 more offensive snaps on their game vs the Black Bears. Now New Mexico takes a huge step up this weekend while Boise takes a fairly significant step down. Last year these 2 met in Boise and the Broncos 37-0 win as a 27-point chalk and New Mexico barely cracked 100 yards of total offense. Boise has dominated this series winning 5 straight with 4 of those wins coming by at least 28 points. New Mexico is fairly inexperienced and their new transfer QB Kendrick didn’t play much at Kansas the last few years and will be operating behind an OLine that has just 22 returning starts ranking them 130th out of 131 teams. This Lobo team average just 12 PPG last year and will have big problems vs this experienced and very solid Boise defense. After winning their first 2 home games last year vs low level competition (Houston Baptist & NMSU) the Lobos lost their final 4 games by margins of 29, 29, 25, and 14 points. The much better team has all kinds of motivation this weekend and they will roll. Take Boise State. |
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09-09-22 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 RUNS San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, 4 PM ET - The Cubs continue to struggle at the plate and were no-hit through 4 innings yesterday by an average pitcher for the Reds in Luis Cessa. Today it will be even tougher to manage runs against the Giants starter Carlos Rodon who is 12-7 on the year with a 2.92 ERA. Rodon has 201 strikeouts on the season in 157.3 innings pitched and the Cubs rank 6th worst in K’s on the season. Rodon has double-digit strikeouts in 5 of his last eight starts. On the season the Cubs rank 23rd in runs per 9 innings with 4.12 scored. In their last twelve games that average has dipped to 3.50 runs per game. The Giants haven’t been hitting much better than Chicago in recent games either and will struggle to score in this game too. San Francisco averages 4.52 runs per 9 innings on the season but in their last 14 games they are averaging just 4.00 runs/9 innings and hitting .225 as a team. The Giants will face the Cubs starter Drew Smyly who is coming off one of his worst outings of the season at St Louis but had pitched well in five straight prior to the Cardinals. Smyly gave up 7 earned runs to the hot-hitting Cards but prior to that he had allowed just 3 earned runs in five games or 29.3 innings of work. In three of the four meetings between these two teams this season they have totaled 6 or less runs. BET UNDER HERE! |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams UNDER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 52 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is obviously a huge marquee showdown between two teams capable of winning it all in 2022-23 and excitement is high for the start of the season. The oddsmakers know it and have set this number slightly higher than it should be. With that in mind we will play Under here in a game our computers are predicting 48 total points scored. Before we talk about the teams let’s address points or scoring in the NFL. Scoring in the NFL dropped last season after teams averaged 24.8PPG two years ago when there weren’t fans in the stands due to Covid. That in turn made it easier for QB’s to audible and there were fewer offensive penalties. Last season we saw a return to the norm or 23PPG per team or 46-total points per game. Those numbers are more in line with 2013-2019 numbers. Both teams are slightly faster in pace than average (Rams 11th, Bills 14th) but they clearly aren’t overly fast by league standards. When it comes to defense, these two teams are two of the best in the league. The Bills were 1st DVOA last season, the Rams finished 5th. The Bills had the 11th best Yards Per Point defense in the NFL, the Rams were 13th. The Bills allowed the least number of points per game a year ago at 18.3PPG, the Rams were 9th best giving up just 21.3PPG. Both teams have big play capability on offense with Josh Allen and Matt Stafford but in the opener, we see both defenses dominating. Take the value and UNDER in this one. |
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09-08-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - These two teams pounded out 22 hits yesterday but only produced 8 runs. Our analytics suggest that both teams will have similar results at the plate today, but the run production will be higher. In each team's last ten games the combined total runs scored has been 9.10 for the Reds and 9.40 for the Cubs. Chicago has struggled to score runs lately but did put up 9 in the first game of this series. Chicago should put up solid offensive numbers here against the Reds starting pitcher Luis Cessa who has a 5.18 ERA and 5.47 FIP. Cessa has mainly been a reliever this year but has started three straight games while allowing 11 hits and 3 earned runs in 11 total innings. The Cubs are also a better hitting team against right-handed pitchers with a .241 team average and 6.5 runs per game on the season. The Reds run production is up in their last five games at 5.4 and they should put up plenty of runs against the Cubs starter Sampson early on. Sampson is 1-5 on the season with a 3.95 ERA and an expected XERA of 4.47. He has allowed 8 earned runs, 17 hits in his last 11.2 innings of work. The Reds also hit right-handed pitchers well with a .250 team average in their last ten games and a 5.6 runs per game average. Lastly, this will be a high bullpen usage game and both bullpens are atrocious. Cincinnati has the worst ERA of any bullpen in baseball and the Cubs are 24th. Bet the OVER here. |
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09-07-22 | Guardians v. Royals +127 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 127 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Royals +120 vs. Cleveland Guardians, 8:10 PM ET - We like the small dog here on the moneyline and predict a solid win by the home team Royals. The Royals starter Zach Greinke is not the pitcher he once was, but he’ll be good enough here versus a struggling Cleveland lineup. Greinke is 4-8 SU on the year with a 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He has pitched better in his last three starts allowing 3 earned runs in 16.1 inning pitched. In the last 15-days the Guardians are hitting .234 as a team but producing just 2.51 runs per game. That’s a stark contrast to the Royals who have put up 65 runs in their last 12 games over 5.41 runs per game. Kansas City should maintain that run production against Cleveland starter Cody Morris who is 0-1 on the season with a 9.00 ERA. In his lone start, Morris, pitched 2 innings versus Seattle allowing 4 hits and 2 earned runs. Kansas City beat Cleveland 5-1 earlier this year with Greinke on the mound. Greinke went 5 solid innings allowing just 3 hits, striking out 5 and not allowing a run. After dropping the first two games of the series we like KC to get a home win here. |
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09-06-22 | Reds +151 v. Cubs | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cincinnati Reds +150 vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:40 PM ET - Here we get a chance to play on a live underdog in the Reds in a great situation to grab a win against a struggling Cubs team. Chicago has been struggling to score runs in their last ten games, producing just 3.20 runs per game. In that same stretch of games, they are hitting just.214 against right-handed pitchers such as Justin Dunn who they’ll face today. Dunn doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season with a 4.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP but he’s pitched well in his last three outings. He is 2-1 in his last three starts with 15 innings pitched, just 10 hits allowed and 4 earned runs. In the last 15 days the Reds have the 10th best team average hitting .257 as a team. Cincinnati has also won 5 of their last eight games. The Cubs are 2-8 SU their last ten games and coming off being swept in St Louis while getting outscored by a combined 4-18 in three games. Wade Miley has been injured for most of the season and making his first appearance since June 10th. We doubt Miley will go long in this game and then it’s a Cubs bullpen which has an ERA of 4.37 which is one of the worst numbers in baseball. The Reds are hitting .274 in their last ten games against lefties, and they’ll have early success in this one. |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show |
#235 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -23 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Ga Tech offense will do next to nothing in this game in our opinion. The Jackets put up only 8 points in their meeting last year and have averaged 11 PPG over the last 6 meetings. Clemson will have one of the top defensive teams in the nation and finished 3rd nationally last year allowing just 4.3 YPP. We believe there is a huge mismatch up front with Clemson’s defensive line vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front. The Tigers should have one of the top front 7 in the nation defensively while the Yellow Jackets OLine has only 37 career starts ranking them 116th in that category. GT is very inexperienced ranking 121st in returning production after winning just 3 games last year and getting outgained by 1.0 YPP on the season. While GT only put up 8 points in last year’s meeting, they covered because the Clemson offense took a huge step back and only scored 14 points in that game. Prior to last year the Tigers won the previous 3 meetings by 66, 38, and 28 points. We look for the Tiger offense to be much improved this season. QB Uiagalelei had on off season last year but he’s lost a bunch of weight and we’re hearing he's been very good in camp. He’ll be operating behind an top notch offensive line with 4 starters back with 6 of his top pass catchers back and his top RB Shipley. We look for a huge improvement on that side of the ball for the Tigers. GT head coach Collins is in desperation mode after a 9-25 SU recodrhis first 3 seasons and canned a number of assistants. Because of that the GT coaching staff has 8 new coaches which means a learning curve early in the season. After a disappointing season, the Tigers have a chip on their shoulders and they roll in this game. |
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09-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 2:10PM ET - The Twins were just 1-hit by Dylan Cease and the White Sox and Saturday and we are betting they bounce back with a much better day at the plate Sunday. The White Sox pounded out 13 hits and 13 runs against the Twins yesterday. On Sunday the pitching match-up has Bundy for the Twins taking the hill to face Giolito for the Sox. Neither pitcher has overwhelming numbers on the season with Bundy toting a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while Giolito has an ERA of 5.27 and a 1.50 WHIP. Giolito has been bad of late with 17 earned runs allowed in hit last four starts or 21.2 innings of work. In each teams last ten games they have averaged 9.40 runs which will get us the cash in this one. On the season these are two of the better hitting teams in baseball when facing right-handed pitchers. The Sox own the 4th best team average for the year against righties hitting .257. Minnesota isn’t far behind hitting .250 as a team against righties which is 8th best in the Bigs. In the ten meetings between these two teams this season they have scored 9 or more runs eight times. The bet here is OVER! |
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09-03-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 9 PM ET - On the season the Astros are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball with 597 runs on the year in 4397 at bats which ranks 9th best. In their last eleven games though they have managed to score only 41 runs and are hitting .241 as a team. Today the Astros will have a tough time putting up runs against Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani who has a 2.67 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. In Ohtani’s last ten starts he is allowing just 1.60 Earned runs and an average of 5 hits per game. In two games against the Astros this season Ohtani has pitched 12 innings, just 1 earned run on 5 total hits and struck out 12 in each game. The Angels are one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball with 502 total runs in 132 games. In their last 27 games the Angels are averaging just 3.44 runs per game while hitting .223 as a team. The Astros will send Luis Garcia to the mound today and even though he doesn’t have great overall number, he is trending in the right direction with a better XERA and XFIP. Garcia doesn’t have to be great in this game to shutout the poor hitting Angels. The play here is UNDER 8 runs. |
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09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic -4 v. Ohio | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#191 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic -4 over Ohio U, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - FAU looked really good in their opening 43-13 win vs Charlotte last weekend. Their offense was extremely balanced with 264 yards passing and 212 yards rushing outgaining Charlotte by more than 200 total yards. The score could have been worse as FAU led 33-7 very early in the 2nd half and decided to sit a number of key players getting them rested for this match up. Owl QB Perry, former starter for the Miami Hurricanes, looked very sharp operating behind an offensive line that has a combined 125 career starts which ranks them as the 9th most experienced line in college football. The offense was without starting RB Ford, who has over 2000 career yards and averages 6.3 YPC, but he is expected back this week. This offense should continue their hot start vs an Ohio defense that finished outside the top 100 in total defense and rush defense. Can the Bobcat offense keep up? We don’t think so. They return QB Rourke but he didn’t do much through the air last year with Ohio ranking 105th nationally in passing YPG. So that means the Bobcats will have to be very successful running the ball to stay in this game but they are facing a very good FAU DLine that returns everyone and allowed just 2.7 YPC last week vs Charlotte. Owl head coach Willie Taggart has coached at a very high level as he was the head man at Oregon & Florida State. He has brought in some high level transfers as well including 5 players who used to play for him at FSU. Ohio was 3-9 last season and they are just 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home underdog and they are just 5-9 SU at home since 2020. Florida Atlantic is the much more talented team here and we think they could very well be a surprise team in 2022. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-02-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals, 8:15 PM ET - This play sets up nicely for a higher scoring game based on current pitching and hitting trends. The Cardinals are 4th in total runs produced this season with 644 in 131 games. In the last 30-days nobody in baseball has scored more than the Cards who have 167 runs in 28 games or nearly 6 runs per game. St Louis is hitting .279 as a team with an .858 OPS which are also the best numbers in the Majors for that same 30-day span. The Cardinals should feast on Cubs starter Adrian Sampson who is 1-4 on the season with a 3.97 ERA and an XERA of 4.48. Sampson has really struggled in his last two starts giving up 6 earned runs on 13 hits in just 6.2 total innings of work. One of those outings was against this same St Louis team that roughed him up for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in a Cards 13-3 win. The Cubs will put up a few runs of their own in this match-up. The Cubs are below average in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.17 (23rd) but they should put up some runs in this game. The Cubs just faced the Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery on August 22nd so they have a much better idea of what he brings to the mound. Montgomery is 7-3 on the season overall (started 3-3 with NY) with a 3.28 ERA. In his last start, Montgomery gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits against the Braves. In their last ten games the Cubs and their opponents have averaged 9.60 runs per game. Chicago has hit lefties well in their last ten with a .265 average and 4.76 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Cardinals games which have averaged 10.30 runs per 9/innings with St Louis hitting .272 against righties and putting up an average of 5.02 runs/9. We expect lots of runs in this game and an Over winner early on. |
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09-01-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +123 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 123 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arizona Diamondbacks (+123) over Milwaukee Brewers, 9:40 PM ET - The situation clearly favors the D’Backs here who are at home and coming off a loss while the Brewers have to travel and are off a win. Both teams are playing well right now with each winning 5 of their last six games. Arizona’s offense has been better of late with a .256 team batting average in their last 13 games while producing an average of 5.92 runs per game. Milwaukee is hitting .232 as a team in their last 14 games and scoring 4.85 runs per game. Merrill Kelly is pitching lights out right now. In his last seven starts he is 2-0 with 46 K’s in 47.1 innings pitched and a 2.28ERA and .95 WHIP. In his last 15 games his ERA is 2.55 and his WHIP is still under 1.00. In comparison Brandon Woodruff's numbers are very good but slightly higher than Kelly’s in his last 7 and 15 games. Arizona is coming off an 18-2 drubbing by the Phillies last night and should be highly motivated after that embarrassing loss. We like the D'Backs as a home dog to bounce back here. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 52.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 52.5 Penn State @ Purdue – Thursday Sept 1 8 PM ET - These two haven’t met since 2019 – Penn State has won 8 straight going back to 2006. 15-3-1 SU since 1951. FINISH TO LAST YEAR - Penn State finished last season with a Bowl loss to Arkansas (10-24). Purdue off a Bowl win over Tennessee 48-45. QUARTERBACK PLAY - Both teams have experience at the QB position with 6th year players. Aidan O’Connell for Purdue completed over 71% of his attempts last year (did throw 11 INT’s). He threw for over 370 yards 6 times last year including a pair of 500+ yard performances. Sean Clifford will be the Nittany Lions starter this season. Clifford has a chance to finish his PSU career as the #1 QB in passing yards, TD’, pass attempts and completions. Penn State also has RB Lee back and a talented WR corps but must replace the O-line. Penn State averaged 23.9PPG but should also score against the Boilermakers who also have misleading defensive numbers from a year ago. PURDUE DEFENSE MISLEADING STATS FROM LAST YEAR (Similar schedule to PSU) - Purdue allowed 29 or more points in the second half of the season to Michigan State, Ohio State and Tennessee. PURDUE OFFENSE IS GOING TO SCORE: Purdue was 22nd in total yards per game offensively (440.3YPG) and averaged 29.1PPG. PENN STATE DEFENSE OVER-RATED: The Lions must replace 7 of last year's top 11 tacklers from their defense that allowed just 17.3PPG (6th best) and their defensive coordinator. PSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading based on their schedule. The Lions faced 5 teams that ranked 107th or worse in total offense last season. KEY OFFENSIVE NUMBERS FOR BOTH: Both teams ranked top 31 in 3rd down conversions a year ago, so both have the ability to keep their offenses on the field. Purdue was 22nd in plays per game at 76.2, Penn State was 29th at 74.1. Purdue 21-14-2 OVER at home since 2016. Purdue 67% returning production – Penn State 65% |
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08-31-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - In the matchup last night these two teams pounded out 21 total hits and put up 15 runs. The game could have been even higher scoring as they stranded 22 total base runners. The D’Back hitters are really seeing the ball right now as this offense has put up double-digit runs in 3 of their last four games and 7+ in 6 of their last nine games. Philadelphia is 6th on the season in total runs scored with 603 and own the 9th best team batting average and are 8th in OPS. The Phillies own the 4th best average when facing left-handed pitchers. Neither starting pitcher is great here with Bailey Falter getting the start for the Phillies and Tommy Henry for the D’Backs. Henry is 3-2 in 5 starts this season with a 3.25 ERA but his expected ERA is much higher at 5.09. Falter is 2-3 on the year with a 4.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He’s allowed 5 or more hits in 6 of his last seven starts. Arizona is hitting .288 as a team against lefties in their last ten games and scoring 9.77 runs per 9 innings. Philadelphia is hitting .275 their last ten against a left-handed pitcher scoring 5.48 runs/9 innings. With a pair of average pitchers and two hot hitting teams we expect plenty of runs in this one. |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 6.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Miami’s offense has been brutal. Since the All Star Break they have the lowest batting average in MLB at .211 and have scored just 94 total runs in 37 games (2.5 RPG). The next lowest run total in the Majors since the break in Washington with 110 runs so Miami has by far the worst run production since mid July. They face one of the top pitchers in MLB tonight with TB sending McClanahan to the hill. He has an ERA of just 2.20, opponents have a batting average of only .184 vs McClanahan and he has the lowest xFIP on the board today at 2.27. He has a lifetime ERA of 0.82 vs Miami and his one start this year vs the Marlins didn’t allow a run. Miami has the worst batting average in MLB vs left handers at .199 and they average just 2.4 RPG on the season vs south paws. The Marlins will send lefty Luzardo to start tonight and he has been pitching very well with an ERA of 2.67 in his 5 starts this month. He has not faced TB this season giving him a leg up in this match up. The Rays offense has been below average all season ranking 20th or lower in batting average, RPG, OPS and HR’s. Versus left handers on the road this season Tampa is hitting .219 and averaging 3.6 RPG. We don’t anticipate either offense doing much in this game and we’ll side with the Under in this game. |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Dodgers have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series and this one sets up very nicely for them to pick up a win. LA’s one loss in this series was a 2-1 setback vs one of MLB’s top pitchers, Sandy Alcantara. In the other 2 games, LA has outscored Miami 18-7 and they’ve outhit the Marlins 30 to 10 in those 2 games. Not surprising as the Dodgers have the highest batting average and most runs scored in MLB this season. Meanwhile, since the All Star Break the Miami offense has been brutal. They rank dead last in batting average at .212 and they’ve only scored 92 runs (2.5 RPG) which is by far the worst in the Majors over that time period (Washington has scored 110 runs which ranks them 29th post All Star). Now we have a team that can’t hit or score runs facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin who has allowed the lowest batting average in MLB this year at .169! He has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season and he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Just a terrible match up for a light hitting Miami team. Miami starter Lopez has tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the season and the LA hitters should continue to stay hot tonight. Lopez was very good prior to the break with an ERA of 2.66, however since then he has started 7 games with an ERA of 6.00. His only really solid start in the 2nd half of the season was vs Oakland who is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The bullpen has also fallen off as of late with an ERA of almost 6.00 their last 10 outings so LA should have a chance to put some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Miami’s offense is playing the Dodgers may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take LA on the run line tonight. |
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08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#956 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 6-0 record this year including a 6-0 win last night. The average score of the 6 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 2.7. Going back further, the Phillies have won 11 of the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia and 73% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 7 straight and 24 of their last 31 games. They are just 18-41 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.1 RPG during their current 7 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Syndergaard who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts (4 with Angels and 4 with Philadelphia). The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 22 of their last 31 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They got a boost offensively as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Contreras who is 1-3 in last 4 starts with an ERA of 6.10. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win this afternoon. |
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08-27-22 | Bears v. Browns -5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+ |
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08-27-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 5-0 record this year including a 7-4 win last night. The average score of the 5 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 3.2. Going back further, the Phillies have won 10 of the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia and 70% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 6 straight and 23 of their last 30 games. They are just 18-40 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.3 RPG during their current 6 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Gibson who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 21 of their last 30 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. They got a boost offensive as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Beede who was a reliever for much of the season. Since joining the starting rotation earlier this month, Beede is winless in 4 starts with an ERA of 7.50. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win tonight. |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
#299/300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska @ Dublin, Ireland, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - We expect the defenses to control this opener in Ireland. Nebraska made a change at offensive coordinator with Mark Whipple coming in from Pitt. They also have a new QB in Texas transfer Casey Thompson. While we expect the offense to look solid as the year progresses, early in the season will be an adjustment learning the new system. Whipple had 1st round pick Kenny Pickett as his QB at Pitt which helped open things up as he watched the offense improve by nearly 100 YPG last season compared to their 2020 numbers. Prior to Pickett taking off, the Pitt offense averaged just 331 YPG their previous 3 seasons combined. Our word is Whipple wants to run the ball quite a bit if possible and his mantra has been “don’t lose the game with mistakes” especially early in the season. That tells us he will be fairly conservative. We expect NW’s offense to struggle as they averaged just 16 PPG last year which ranked them 125th nationally. They were held to 14 points or less in 7 of their 9 Big 10 games. Their QB Hilinski started 5 games last year but wasn’t great completing just 54% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 4 interceptions on the season. Nebraska’s defense held NW to 7 points last year and was solid ranking 36th nationally holding their opponents to 5.2 YPP. We expect them to be better this year. The NW defense was bad last year. They allowed 6.3 YPP after giving up just 4.8 YPP the year prior. In fact, 3 of the 4 years prior to last season, the Wildcat defense ranked in the top 25 nationally in YPP allowed. Head coach Fitzgerald is a great defensive coach and we expect a big jump from that unit this year. NW will attempt to make this a slow paced, grind it out game. That’s what we anticipate with points hard to come by. Play the Under. |
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08-26-22 | Guardians -109 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -110 over Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - Seattle took the first game of the series 3-1 despite getting outhit 6 to 4 by the Guardians. The M’s were a bit lucky to get to 3 runs on just 4 hits as all their runs came on one HR in the 1st inning. Tonight’s match up features 2 starting pitchers heading in opposite directions. Cleveland starter Bieber has an ERA of just 1.62 over his last 5 starts and his lifetime ERA vs Seattle is a solid 3.75. He’s also been better on the road this year with an ERA of 3.00 and the Guardians have won 10 of his 14 road starts this season. Seattle starter Gilbert has not recorded a win since July 5th and over his last 8 starts he has an ERA of 5.62. The Mariners have lost 5 of his last 6 starts and Gilbert’s home ERA is nearly a full run higher than his road ERA at 4.04. Cleveland’s offense ranks higher in RPG, OPS, and batting average while striking out the least in MLB at just 7 per 9 innings. Seattle’s offense has been poor since the All Star break ranking 28th in batting average at .216 ahead of only Pittsburgh and Miami. That could spell trouble vs a Cleveland pitching staff that has really pitched well as of late allowing an average of just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Prior to their somewhat lucky win last night, Seattle had lost 3 of their previous 5 games and while that may not seem like a big deal, those games were vs Washington & Oakland who have the 2 worst records in MLB. Cleveland gets the win tonight. |
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08-26-22 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8 PM ET - These two just played a higher scoring series last week but those numbers were very deceiving as we has strong winds blowing out at Wrigley for 2 of those games. We know what happens when the wind blows out at Wrigley! The one game where the wind was not in play last week was a 5-2 Milwaukee win. The fact is, even with the other 2 games factored in (scores of 8-7 and 6-5) these 2 teams are simply bad right now offensively. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee is hitting .173 and Chicago is hitting .199. Over the last month Milwaukee’s bats rank 28th in batting average and the Cubs check in at 22nd. Both struggling offenses are facing pitchers performing at a high level right now. Chicago’s starter Steele has been nearly unhittable allowing 1 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starting including not allowing a single ER in 4 of those starts. One of those starts was last week vs Milwaukee where he did not allow an ER in 6 innings of work. Not overly surprising as he is pitching lights out and the Brewers own the 2nd worst batting average in MLB vs lefties. Milwaukee starter Peralta has made 4 starts since returning from the DL and allowed just 7 ER’s combined in those outings. He faced the Cubs last week and gave up 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Peralta’s overall ERA is 4.08 but he’s pitched much better than that with an xERA of 3.23 and a FIP of 3.07. Neither pitcher allows many HR’s with Peralta giving up just 4 this season in 57+ innings and Steele allowing only 7 round trippers in 113+ innings. We anticipate a low scoring game between these division rivals and we like the Under. |
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08-25-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Both of the first 2 games in this series landed directly on 8 total runs but we expect this one to eclipse that number. In game 1 the O’s won 5-3 and the Sox won by the same score in game 2. Chicago alone has left 23 runners on base the last 2 games and the 2 teams have combined to leave 33 on base so far in this series. The 2 have combined to put 50 runners on base in the first 2 games of the series yet scored just 16 total runs. In other words, both teams have had LOTS of opportunities to score many more runs but the bounce of the ball has been rather unlucky. We say that changes tonight. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox and his road ERA is a hefty 6.39 and he has allowed 41 hits in just 31 innings of work away from home. He’s faced Baltimore once this season and allowed 5 ER’s in 6.2 IP. The Orioles will start Lyles who has an ERA of 4.61 on the season but his xERA is higher at 4.82. He’s also allowing opponents to hit .282 on the season which is the 2nd highest BA allowed of any pitcher on the board today. His lifetime ERA vs the White Sox is 5.56 in 6 appearances. We should also see some runs on the back end of this game as both bullpens have been struggling. The Sox bullpen ERA over the last 10 games is 6.55 and Baltimore sits at 4.28. Look for both teams to actually get some hits with runners on base today and this one rolls over 8 Runs. |
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08-24-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET - These two teams split a double-header yesterday with one low scoring game and then producing 16 runs in the night cap. The Cubs won the day game 2-0 but St Louis had plenty of chances to score runs but they went 0-10 with runners in scoring position. Both pitching staffs allowed just 10 total hits in the game, but the Cubs were forced to use up their bullpen. In Game two the Cardinals broke open with 16 hits and cruised to a 13-3 win. We know the Cardinals are going to score runs here. They are hitting .310 as a team with 18 home runs and averaged 7 runs per game over their last ten games. In their last 15 games they have produced 95 total runs which is the most in the Major League over the last 15-days. St Louis should feast on Cubs pitcher Luke Farrell making his 2022 debut. Farrell didn’t “fare” well in Triple a with a 5.03 ERA in 11 starts. The Cubs will also contribute to this Over with this being the 4th time seeing Cardinal’s starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has a 4.15 ERA versus the Cubs this season and has allowed 20 hits in 17.1 innings of work. In the last 15-days the Cubs have scored 63 total runs or 4.2 runs per game. We expect plenty of runs in this one to push it well past the 8.5 runs. |
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08-23-22 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs NY Yankees, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We realize the Yankees have really been struggling offensively but we’ve seen some signs of life as of late. Yesterday they put up 4 runs in 6.2 innings on Mets ace Max Scherzer. They have now put up 4 runs in each of their last 2 games after doing so just once their previous 11 games. Still, the Yanks rank 2nd in MLB in scoring, 3rd in OPS, and 1st in HR’s on the season. They will be facing Walker on the mound for the Mets who has been struggling with back problems as of late and it’s showing in his performance. Over his last 5 starts Walker’s is almost 7.00 and he’s allowed 35 baserunners in 20 innings. The Mets offense also is among the best in MLB for the season ranking in the top 7 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They are averaging 5.3 RPG this season vs right handers including 6 RPG over their last 10. Yankee pitcher Montas has been a disaster since coming over from Oakland allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings pitched. He’s also allowed 24 baserunners during that 3 game stretch. The wind is blowing out tonight 5-10 MPH at Yankee Stadium and we look for double digit runs. Take the Over. |
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08-22-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - These 2 teams met in Milwaukee last week and split a 4 game series. We were on the Dodgers -1.5 vs Brewers and starting pitcher Lauer in that series lost with LA winning 2-1. The Brewers scored a late run in the bottom of the 8th to cover that run line but had only 4 hits in the process. The struggles continue at the plate for Milwaukee and now with LA at home and left hander Urias on the mound, we like them on the run line again tonight. The Brewers are hitting just .201 in the month of August which is the worst mark in MLB. Versus left handers, they are hitting .217 on the year which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams. This is a bad match up for a struggling offense facing Urias who is pitching at the top of his game right now. He faced Milwaukee last week and did not allow a run in 5 innings of work with the Dodgers winning 4-0. Urias has allowed just 3 ER’s in his last 31 innings spanning 5 starts. His control has been spot on striking out 29 and walking just 4 in that 5 game stretch. Current Milwaukee hitters have had 87 lifetime plate appearances vs Urias and their batting average is just .192. The Dodgers bats are officially back on track after sweeping Miami here over the weekend outscoring the Marlins 19-4 in the process. Yesterday they faced arguably the top starting pitcher in MLB, Sandy Alcantara, and shelled him for 10 hits and 6 runs in just 3 innings. As we stated above, they faced Milwaukee pitcher Lauer last week and won 2-1. We expect them to have more offensive success here at home where they average 5.3 RPG with a average winning margin of +2 RPG. Lauer’s numbers on the road drop off quite a bit as well with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.30. LA is now 43-15 at home this season and of those 43 wins, 37 have come by at least 2 runs. The Brewers are struggling as we said with a record of just 7-11 this month. They are coming off a huge rivalry series in Chicago in which the Cubs took 2 of 3 games. Now after playing yesterday in Chicago, they travel to the west coast while the Dodgers remain at home after their 3 game series with Miami. This one sets up nicely for an easy LA win. |
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08-22-22 | Falcons v. Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Atlanta Falcons vs NY Jets, Monday at 8 PM ET - This total opened at 42 and has dropped to 39. We completely agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Under here. Our power ratings have this total set at 37.5. These 2 had joint practices the last few days and the Jets defense was dominant according to our reports. Atlanta’s offense did next to nothing including in their red zone drills vs NY’s defense. It sounds like the Falcons will start rookie QB Ridder who played extensively in their first preseason game but completed less than 50% of his passes. Even if starter Mariota goes here, he struggled big time vs this Jets defense that last 2 days. The NY offense actually played well vs Atlanta’s defense in joint practices, however because of injury problems, there is a good chance that Jet head coach Saleh will sit his starters in this one. Even if they play, it will be a short stint. Especially QB Flacco who will most likely be the starter early in the regular season with Wilson injured. They cannot afford to lose Flacco to injury so he won’t play much if at all here. All reports were the Jets were the better team the last 2 days practicing vs Atlanta but with the Falcons set to play starters for at least some time and the Jets not sure, the Under is the better play here. Atlanta scored 27 points in their first preseason game vs Detroit who had one of the worst defense in the NFL last year. The Birds had only 307 total yards in that game so they were quite fortunate to get to 27 points. NY had a similar situation scoring 24 points on just 301 total yards. The We look for the Atlanta offense to really have a tough time and with NY’s QB situation, they’ll be going with 3rd stringer White and 4th stringer Streveler for most of the game if not all. Neither team gets to 20 points here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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08-21-22 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - After the wind was blowing out at Wrigley in the first 2 meetings of this series, today it’s blowing in at 10 MPH which obviously makes a huge difference. Cubs won 8-7 in game 1 and due to the wind it seemed every routine fly ball had a chance to go out – 5 HR’s in that game. Chicago also won yesterday’s game 6-5, however it was 3-3 after 9 innings and they scored 5 in extras. The 2 teams combined for only 9 hits prior to extra innings yesterday. Cubs send Steele to the mound who has been pitching very well. He has allowed 0 ER’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and over his last 10 he is giving up just 1.5 ER’s in 5+ innings per start. He has a 2.75 ERA in 4 starts vs Milwaukee this season and the Brewers offense struggles big time vs lefties with a batting average of .219 which ranks them 29th out of 30 MLB teams. Woodruff takes the mound for Milwaukee and he is sporting a 2.75 ERA over his last 12 starts. Since May 1st, he has 14 starts under his belt and he’s allowed 3 ER’s or fewer in 13 of those game. Lifetime vs current Cubs hitters, Woodruff has allowed a batting average of only .194. Steele has been even better vs current Milwaukee hitters allowing a batting average of just .183 lifetime. After these 2 combined for 7 HR’s over the first 2 meetings in this series, with the wind blowing in and 2 starters pitching at a very high level, the long ball will be tough today. Under in this one. |
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08-20-22 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 16-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The St Louis bats are red hot and we expect that to continue tonight. The Cards are hitting just under .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 6 RPG. On the season STL ranks 4th in RPG, 6th in batting average and 5th in OPS. They’ll be facing struggling left hander Bumgarner and STL owns the 3rd best batting average in the Majors vs lefties while averaging 5.6 RPG. Bumgarner has been shaky most of the season with an ERA of 4.37 but an xERA exceeding 5.00. Over his last 4 games his ERA is 7.33 and he has allowed 42 baserunners in just 23 innings during that stretch. He's had 14 career starts vs the Cardinals with an ERA of 5.23. Arizona will be facing Hudson on the hill for St Louis and he is their weakest starter. His ERA is 4.17 but his xERA is north of 5.00. Over his last 10 starts Hudson is averaging 5 IP per start while allowing 3.3 ER’s. On the road his ERA is 5.10 and he has allowed 86 baserunners in 55 innings. The DBacks bats have been a bit quiet over their last 5 but all were vs top of the line starters and Hudson is a big step down tonight. On the season Arizona is averaging 4.6 RPG at home and they’ve gone Over in 7 of their last 10 at Chase Field. These 2 combined to score 6 runs last night but had 16 hits which would normally equate to around 8 runs and 25 LOB and both teams starters had much better ERA’s than today’s pitchers. Both offenses play well tonight and this one goes Over 9 Runs. |
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08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo. |
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08-19-22 | Saints v. Packers UNDER 40 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
#405/406 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 – New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The first week of the NFL preseason saw 14 of the 17 games (including the HOF game) go Over the Total. The average total set by the oddsmakers last week was 34.8 and after last week’s scoring (games averaged 43 total points) the average total set this week is right around 40 which is where this game sits. The Packers total last week vs San Francisco was set at 34.5 and the Saints total vs Houston was 35. This is an over adjustment in our opinion and we think there is some value on the Under in this game. Neither starting QB will take the field in this one and both defenses look like they are ahead of the offenses right now. The Saints defense held Houston to 275 total yards and 17 points last week. One of those TD’s came on a 47 yard drive after a New Orleans turnover and the other came with 25 seconds remaining in the game. The Saints offense only averaged 3.9 YPP in that game (only scored 13 points) vs a Houston defense that finished 31st in YPP defense a year ago. The Niners scored 28 points but had only 328 total yards in their home game vs GB last week. SF was put in favorable field position throughout the game due to 3 Packer turnovers and 3 of their 5 scores came on drives of 39 yards or less. These 2 have been facing off in practice this week and our word is the defenses have dominated. These two defenses should be among the best in the NFL this year and we look for the offenses to struggle in this game. Under is our recommendation. |
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08-19-22 | Astros +115 v. Braves | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros +115 over Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:20 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Braves coming off their huge 4 game series with the Mets as those 2 battle it out for the NL East crown. Atlanta won 3 of those 4 games and now must face the team with the 2nd best record in MLB whose offense has been red hot. The Astros scored 21 runs yesterday vs the White Sox and they’ve scored the 2nd most runs in baseball since the All Star break behind only the Dodgers. Houston is hitting nearly .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 7 RPG. Atlanta sends Wright to the mound and he’s had a very solid season but has been dealing with arm fatigue as of late. He’s already pitched over 134 innings which is by far the most in his career and Wright had to skip his last start due to a tired arm. In his last 3 starts his ERA is 4.34 which is much higher than his season ERA of 3.14. Houston will go with McCullers who has made 1 start since coming off the DL. That was a 6 inning outing in which he did not allow an earned run. He has been one of Houston’s top pitchers since 2015 with a lifetime ERA of 3.54 in 677 innings of work and he has struck out more than 1 batter per inning in his career. Once McCullers exits the Astros have the best bullpen in the Majors with an ERA of 2.91 on the season and the relievers have allowed a league low 25 HR’s this year. It’s not often we get a team like Houston as a money line underdog. They’ve been in that position only 15 times all year winning 7 of those games giving them the 5th best winning % as a dog this season. We like Houston on Friday night. |
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08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We’ve had 3 low scoring games so far in this series and expect another here. These 2 have scored 16 total runs in 3 games in this series however 3 of those runs have come in extra innings. That means 13 runs scored in 3 games in regulation or barely 4 total runs per game. Minus the extra inning hits in game 2, these two have combined for just 28 total hits in 3 games. Milwaukee’s offense has been terrible over the last few weeks. Over their last 10 games their team batting average is .180 and they are averaging 2.8 RPG. As we stated in yesterday’s analysis (lost with LA run line despite Brewers scoring only 1 run – tough) the Brewers aren’t a great hitting team (23rd in batting average) so they rely heavily on HR’s to score. LA starter Heaney, who sports a 1.16 ERA on the season, has allowed 1 HR all year. He's also a lefty and Milwaukee really has problems vs south paws with a team batting average of .218 with is 29th in MLB. While LA came into this series red hot offensively, they’ve cooled off over their last 5 games with a batting average of only .216. In this series they are hitting just .192 over the first 3 games. Facing Milwaukee ace Burnes won’t help them here. He has a 2.39 ERA on the season and opponents are hitting .181 vs him. Both pitchers average right around 12 K’s per 9 innings which puts them near the top in that category. Two struggling offenses and lots of swings and misses today means another low scoring game. Under is the play. |
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08-17-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are coming off a rare loss (in extra innings) last night and we like them to bounce back tonight. LA has been on a fantastic run winning 24 of their last 30 games and they’ve only lost back to back games twice since mid June. They have the 2nd best batting average in MLB since the All Star Break (3rd best on the season) and they’ve scored 156 runs during that stretch which is #1 in baseball, a full 27 runs more than Atlanta who has the 2nd most in that time. They were a bit unlucky last night as they outhit the Brewers 8-5 but lost 5-4 in 11 innings. Milwaukee was very fortunate to score 5 runs on only 5 hits as their bats continue to struggle. The Brewers have hit just .188 as a team over their last 10 games while barely averaging 3 RPG. Because they don’t hit for a high average, Milwaukee must hit HR’s to generate scoring and they are facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin tonight who has allowed just 11 HR’s the entire season in 116 innings of work. He is 14-1 on the year with a WHIP of just 0.89 which is the 3rd best among starters in MLB. Gonsolin has allowed just 29 ER’s in 21 starts this season and Milwaukee doesn’t have a single player on their team that has more than 2 plate appearances life time vs him. LA has the 3rd best bullpen ERA when he exits so we look for Milwaukee to continue their offensive struggles. Lauer pitches for the Brewers and his numbers are solid with a 3.64 ERA, however his xFIP and xERA are both north of 4.00. Very few have been able to slow down this Dodgers offense averaging over 6 RPG since the break and we don’t expect Lauer to keep them in check today. LA has 80 wins on the season and amazingly 72 of those have come by at least 2 runs. Since the All Star Break they have 20 wins and all but 1 of came by 2 or more runs. Dodgers bounce back today and cover the -1.5 run line. |
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08-16-22 | Mets v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta took game 1 of this series with a 13-1 win last night. That was the 6th time these teams have met this month and they are averaging over 11 total runs scored in those games. These are 2 of the top offensive teams with each ranking in the top 9 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. Since the All Star Break the Mets rank #1 in batting average and Atlanta comes in at #5. As far as runs scored, these 2 teams rank 2nd and 3rd in MLB since the break only behind the Dodgers. Morton will start for Atlanta and he has been shelled in his 2 starts vs the Mets this season going 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA. Over his last 3 starts, Morton has an ERA of 4.58. Walker starts for the Mets and he has faced Atlanta once this season, just 11 days ago, and he last 1 inning giving up 8 ER’s. He has been struggling in general as of late allowing 16 ER’s over his last 4 starts in just 18.2 innings pitched. Over the last 10 games these offenses are both averaging around 5.5 RPG with a batting average well above their season averages. These 2 N.L. East rivals have met 13 times this season and the Over is 9-3-1. Hot temps in Atlanta tonight with the wind blowing straight out to center at 10+ MPH should be a perfect situation for a high scoring game. We like Over the total in this one. |
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08-15-22 | Padres -134 v. Marlins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -135 over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - Both teams have high end starters going today but San Diego’s offense is far superior to Miami’s right now. The Marlins have been brutal at the plate for quite a long stretch now. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 straight games and over their last 10 outings the Marlins are averaging 1.9 RPG. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 19 of their las 32 games. Since the All Star Break Miami has scored a grand total of 59 runs in 24 games which is the lowest run total by a full 15 runs. The 2nd worst offense during that stretch is Washington and they have scored 74 runs. Musgrove goes for San Diego and he has had an all star season with a 2.91 ERA. On the road he has allowed just 52 hits in 65 innings pitched. In 4 career starts vs Miami he is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA. The Marlins have Alcantara on the mound and he’s been very good as well this season. However he has allowed 4 ER’s in 2 of his last 3 starts and in his lone start vs SD this year the Padres hit him up with 7 baserunners and 3 runs in 4.2 innings. While Miami’s offense is bad right now, the Padres have scored 39 runs over their last 5 games while hitting .305 as a team. San Diego shouldn’t need to do much on offense to get the win here and we’ll lay the number with them on the road tonight. |
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08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies were on a roll winning 12 of 13 games before they ran into the red hot Mets over the weekend and lost 2 of 3. Their offense came to a screeching halt vs the Mets, however they faced 3 top of the line starting pitchers in Scherzer (1.93 ERA), DeGrom (1.62 ERA), and Bassitt (3.27 ERA). Prior to their series with the Mets, they had average 5.4 RPG over their previous 16 games. We fully expect the Phillies offense to take off here vs Mike Minor who has been terrible. The left hander has won 1 game this season and his ERA is over 6.00. He had made 7 starts at home this season and the Reds have lost all 7 of those games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6. All 7 of those losses came by at least 2 runs. Dating back to last season, Minor has allowed a whopping 44 HR’s in 122 innings pitched which is more than 3 per 9 innings. Bad news facing a Phillies offense that averages 1.3 HR’s per 9 innings which is good for 6th in the Majors. On top of that, Cincy has the worst bullpen ERA in MLB so not much help on the back end in this game. Philadelphia’s Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominating self since his Tommy John surgery a few years back but he has still been solid. He’s pitched just 2 games for Philadelphia after being traded from the LA Angels and his ERA on the season is a solid 3.96. He’s facing a Reds line up that has averaged just 2.9 RPG over their last 10 scoring 2 runs or fewer in 7 of those games. We like Philly to win this game by at least 2 runs. |
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08-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -135 over Milwaukee Brewers, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - These 2 split the first 2 games of this crucial NL Central series with St Louis winning the opener 3-1 and Milwaukee bouncing back to win in 10 innings last night 3-2 despite only 4 hits. STL starter Wainwright flirted with a no hitter vs Milwaukee’s struggling offense but the Brewers hit a HR late (8th inning) to tie the game and sent it to extras. The Brewers are averaging just 3.8 RPG with a batting average of .220 over their last 10 games. Today they’ll face Mikolas who has been outstanding at home this year with an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 0.88. He has allowed just 53 hits in 74 innings pitched at Busch Stadium this season. The Cards have won his last 5 starts at home and we expect another W today. Milwaukee starter Ashby has a record of 1-7 on the road this year with an ERA of 4.72 and a WHIP of 1.66. He’s allowed 92 baserunners in 54 innings pitched on the road this season. The lefty will face a STL line up that has been hot averaging 5.6 RPG while hitting .260 over their last 10 games. The Cards have the 3rd best batting average & OPS in the Majors vs lefties this season. At home they are averaging nearly 6 RPG this year vs left handed pitchers. STL has been very good at home this year winning 9 of their last 10, they are 15 games above .500 here, and their RPG margin at Busch Stadium is +1.2. We like St Louis to take the series finale today. |
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08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels +100 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels +100 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET - The Twins took the opener last night 3-0 but the pitching match up today is heavily in favor of the host Angels. Left hander Detmers is on the mound for LA and he’s been fantastic as of late. The Angels feel he is a top of the rotation pitcher after taking him 10th overall in the 2020 draft and he showing glimpses of that ability. He threw a no hitter early in the year but struggled some after that and LA sent him down to the minors to work on a few things. Since being recalled, Detmers has made 5 starts allowing just 4 ER’s in 31 innings for an ERA of 1.16. Minnesota averages nearly a full RPG less vs lefties and they’ve never faced Detmers giving LA an edge here. Bundy, who pitched for the Angels last year, gets the start for Minnesota. He’s been up and down at best this year with an ERA of over 5.00. He’s been worse on the road where his ERA is 6.33 and Bundy has allowed 85 baserunners in just 59 innings pitched away from home this season. The bullpens are about dead even in this one but big advantage on the hill for the majority of the game as Detmers has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last 5 starts and we expect him to go at least 6 innings here. We don’t love LA’s offense obviously but they have been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 8 games. Minnesota is slightly above .500 on the season but they haven’t played great over the last month or so winning just 13 of their last 30 games. At basically even money we like the Angels tonight. |
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08-13-22 | Saints v. Texans UNDER 33.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 33.5 New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8 PM ET - We will start with the all-important QB positions for both teams. The Saints are without starter Jameis Winston so Andy Dalton will get a series or two under center followed by Ian Book and newly signed KJ Costello. Houston only has two QB’s currently available so Davis Mills will play longer than expected followed by 6-year vet Jeff Driskel. Reports out of the Texans camp is that the offense has looked horrible. QB Davis has been indecisive and hasn’t been good throwing the ball downfield. The best running back in camp thus far has been rookie Dameon Pierce who was drafted in the 4th round. The Texans were one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL a season ago averaging just 4.7 Yards Per Play which ranked them 30th. Houston managed just 1-point for every 16.9 yards gained which was also 30th out of 32 team’s last season. New Orleans is loaded on offense this season but don’t expect to see many of their Super Stars on the field Saturday. As we mention starting QB Winston is out, RB Kamara is facing a suspension so why jeopardize him in a meaningless preseason game and Michael Thomas is coming off a serious ankle injury. New Orleans was well below average in Yards Per Play a season ago at 4.9 and scored just 21.4PPG which was significantly lower than what they averaged the previous season at 29.1PPG. Both teams’ defenses are ahead of the offenses at this point, and we expect a very low scoring game. Bet UNDER. |
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08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - Nice situational spot here for SF with their top starter on the mound. The Giants played in San Diego on Wednesday and had yesterday off after their short trip home. Pittsburgh was playing @ Arizona yesterday and tonight will be playing their 8th consecutive road game in 8 days. The Pirates are 2-5 so far on this road trip that has taken them from the east coast (Baltimore) to the west coast (Arizona and now SF). They are 17 games below .500 away from home with a losing margin of -1.5 runs per game. SF sends lefty Rodon to the mound and he has been fantastic at home this year. His ERA in home games is just 1.76 and he has struck out 73 batters in just 51 innings. That’s a problem for a Pittsburgh offense that has struck out an average of 9.5 per 9 innings ranking them 29th in MLB out of 30 teams. They’ve struck out 365 times this year vs left handers which is by far the worst in the Majors. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in batting average vs lefties at .219. Rodon faced the Pirates once this season and went 8 innings, allowed 2 hits and 0 runs. Bryse Wilson starts for Pittsburgh and while he’s coming off a solid outing in his most recent start, his season long numbers aren’t great. His ERA is close to 6.00 and opposing hitters have a .298 batting average vs Wilson. He’s allowed 100 baserunners in just 66 innings this season and his HR allowed rate is quite high at 1.65 per 9 innings. Wilson barely averages 4 innings per game with his pitch count often in the 80’s and lower. That means Pittsburgh’s bad bullpen, which has the 4th worst ERA in the league, will get plenty of work here as well. SF has a losing record on the season but they are the only team below .500 that has + run differential so they are better than their record indicates. We like this spot for the Giants and look for a 2+ run win tonight. |
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08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night. |
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08-11-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs KC Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - Dylan Cease starts for the Sox in this game and he has given up next to nothing this year. His ERA is 1.98 on the season and over his last 10 starts he’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s over his last 31 innings for an ERA of 0.59. Cease has faced the Royals twice this season and he’s allowed 2 ER’s combined in those 2 starts. The KC offense ranks 24th in RPG and at home this season they are averaging just 3.6 RPG vs right handed pitchers. The Royals send Greinke to the hill and while he’s had some issues on the road this season, at home he’s been very good with an ERA of 2.23. He’s made 9 starts at home this season and allowed 2 ER’s or fewer in 8 of those. The Sox offense has gone south as of late scoring 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they are averaging 3.5 RPG over their last 10. Since the All Star Break Chicago has scored a total of 68 runs ranking them 25th in MLB during that stretch. These 2 A.L. Central rivals are used to low scoring games with 12 of the last 15 meetings in KC going Under the Total and 20 of their last 26 overall staying Under. Low scoring today in KC. |
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08-10-22 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - This total opened 10.5 last night and was hammered up to 12 fairly quickly. Still not high enough in our opinion. Our total on this game is set at 12.9 so we still feel there is vale with the Over. These 2 combined for 21 runs on 30 hits last night. If we add in the walks, these 2 combined for 36 baserunners in 9 innings or a whopping 4 per inning! Tonight 2 lefties are headed to the mound with Quintana for St Louis and Freeland for Colorado. Both offenses excel vs south paws this season with the Cards averaging 5.45 RPG and the Rockies averaging 5.25 RPG (Colorado averages 7.34 RPG at home vs left handed pitchers). Factor in the altitude and the winds which will be blowing out to left at 10 to 15 MPH and we get not only the Coors Field factor but Coors Field Plus (wind) tonight. Quintana has pitched once at Coors this season when he was with Pittsburgh and the Rockies put up 13 runs in that game, he allowed 6 ER’s in 5 innings. Freeland has an ERA of 5.55 with a 1.60 WHIP at home this season for the Rockies. Colorado home games have averaged 11.25 total runs this year so while this seems high, it really isn’t when we factor in the weather and what we expect to be hot hitting line ups again tonight. Over 12 in this one. |
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08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here especially on offense. Over the last 10 games the Phillies have 9 wins and average 6.8 RPG. The Marlins have won 3 of their last 10 and they are averaging 2.3 RPG during that stretch. Miami has won just 6 of their last 20 games and 11 of their last 30. They have fallen completely out of the playoff race sitting at 10 games below .500. The Phils are right in the thick of things with a 60-48 record and have their ace on the mound today. Zack Wheeler has been lights out on the mound allowing 2 ER’s or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts this season. At home he’s been even better with an ERA of 1.58 and he’s allowed just 40 total hits in 64 innings of work at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a bad recipe for a Miami offense that has scored the fewest in MLB since the All Star Break at 44. Miami pitcher Garrett has solid overall numbers this season but his ERA was north of 5.00 in each of his last 2 seasons so he’s pitching above his head in our opinion. On the road this season he has an ERA of 4.23 and the Marlins have lost 4 of his last 6 starts away from home. He’s running into a Philadelphia offense that has the 4th best batting averaging since the All Star Break and they have scored the 5th most runs at 85, nearly double what Miami has scored since mid July. Over the last 10 games the Marlins have been outscored by an average of 2.3 – 3.6 (-1.3 RPG differential) while the Phillies have outscored their opponents 6.8 – 3.8 (+3.0 RPG differential). We like the Phillies to keep rolling and pick up an easy win here. |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - Toronto is one of the higher scoring teams in baseball, but the Orioles are not ranking 20th in runs/9 innings. The O’s rank 20th or worse in hitting, OPS and strikeouts per game. Toronto is playing their 7th straight road game and their offensive numbers are trending down as they’ve scored 3 or less runs in four of those away games. The Blue Jays have now stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last ten games with the total runs scored in those contests being an average of 7.40 run/9 innings. The last ten games involving the Orioles have averaged 7.30 runs/9 innings. Pitching will play an important part in this game too with Kikuchi slated to start for the Jays, Lyles for the O’s. In their last ten games the Orioles are hitting just .203 as a team against left-handed starters and scoring an average of 2.43 runs/9 innings. Toronto has recently struggled hitting right-handed starters with a .232 team average and 4.18 runs/9 innings. Kikuchi is coming off two solid outings with just 5 hits allowed and 3 earned runs in 9 innings of work. In the last five games he’s started the totals have all finished with 9 or less runs. Lyles has also pitched well in his last two starts, lasting 11.3 innings with 11 K’s, 1 earned run allowed and 10 total hits. This sets up to be a low scoring game. |
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08-07-22 | Yankees -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -123 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
#927 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -123 over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The Yankees are trying to prevent a 3 game sweep and we like them to get the win today. The Cards have won each of the first 2 games by just 1 run and NY has had more hits over the first 2 games despite their 2 tight losses. The Yanks have left 30 runners on base over the 2 losses. Frankie Montas takes the mound for NY after coming over from Oakland earlier this week. Montas was a bright spot for the down trodden A’s with an ERA of 3.18 and a batting average allowed of .231 on the season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in a game since mid June. Despite pitching very well this season, Montas has a deceiving losing record due to Oakland’s inept offense. They averaged just 2.5 RPG in his 19 starts and the A’s were held to 1 run or less in over HALF of his starts this season (10). He has not faced a single player on the St Louis roster that has more than 8 career at bats vs him. He hasn’t faced the Cards this season and we like Montas to perform very well today. He’s backed up by the 2nd best bullpen in MLB in terms of ERA. Wainwright goes for St Louis today. He’s had a solid season but he’s not pitching as well as his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 3.11 yet his xERA is much higher at 4.40. He’s been a bit luck as well with a LOB% of over 80% on the season. The Cards have moved into 1st place in the NL Central but against teams that are over .500, their record is just 21-27. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 40-28 this season vs teams that have winning records. NY ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 5.3 RPG yet they’ve only scored 3 runs combined in the first 2 games of this series leaving lots of men on base as we discussed. We like them to break out offensively this afternoon. New York has not been swept in a 3 game series this season and we don’t expect it to happen today. |
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08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
#981 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland A’s, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - San Fran was just swept by the red hot Dodgers and now they take a huge step down in competition facing Oakland who has the 2nd worst record in MLB and a run differential of -111 on the season. Rodon will start for SF and he’s been outstanding with an ERA of 3.00 but he’s actually pitching better than that number with an xERA of 2.77. He had 2 poor back to back outings coming out of the All Star Break but righted the ship in his most recent start holding the Cubs scoreless in 7 IP allowing just 2 hits. The lefty is facing an Oakland line up that ranks 29th or 30th in RPG, OPS, and batting average and vs southpaws at home this year the A’s are hitting just .189 and averaging 2.6 RPG. The Giants haven’t been hitting well over their last 10 games but nearly half of those games (4) came vs high level LA Dodger starting pitchers. They should look much better today vs Oakland starter Oller who has an ERA of 7.68, a WHIP of 1.73 and has the highest xFIP of any starting pitcher going today. Oller has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever this year. As a starter he’s been really bad allowing 30 ER’s in his 7 starts spanning 30 innings. He’s been his worst at home this year with an ERA of 9.00. Oakland is 17-34 at home this year and they are getting outscored by an average of 2 RPG! While SF does have a losing road record, they actually have a plus run differential away from home. We expect the A’s offense to struggle today while San Fran should be able to break out with a big game. Lay the -1.5 with the Giants. |
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08-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10PM ET - The Brewers are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.65 runs per game and average even more at home at 4.72. The Reds are slightly below average in runs per game at 4.32 which ranks 18th. The Reds pitching staff as a whole has not been good this season as they allow an average of 5.32 runs/9 innings and rank 29th in home runs allowed at 1.37. That’s significant considering the Brewers are 4th in home runs at 1.43 per game. Milwaukee is also below average in runs allowed per 9 innings at 4.37 which ranks 17th in MLB. On the season the Brewers have excelled versus right-handed pitching but in their last ten games they’ve been even better with a .298 average and 7.19 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Reds who have hit left-handed starters well all year but in their last ten games it’s been better yet with a .278 team average while scoring an average of 6.43 runs/9 innings. In the last 15 days the Brewers have scored 71 runs in 12 games (4th most) while Cincinnati has put up 59 total runs in 13 games (10th). The bet here is OVER the number. |
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08-04-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - We were on the under in this match up yesterday and cashed nicely as the A’s topped the Angels 3-1. These two AL West rivals have now met 9 times this season and only once have they totaled more than 8 runs. The average total runs scored in their 9 match ups this season is 5.66. The offenses are 2 of the worst in MLB. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Blackburn is on the mound tonight for the A’s and he’s been great on the road this season with a 1.74 ERA and he’s allowed just 51 hits in 68 innings away from home. He’s been a heavy ground ball pitcher this year at almost 50% which limits home runs and leads to lower scoring games. Junk, perfect name for a pitcher, is going for LA. He’s only pitched in 2 games this season but has looked very good. In his 1 start he went 5 innings, struck out 8 and did not allow an earned run. Oakland has never seen him before which gives him the edge in this game. Over the last 10 games, the Angels are averaging 6.8 total RPG and Oakland is averaging 7.7. Both bullpens have also been performing much better as of late compared to their season long stats. We think we’re in for another low scoring game this afternoon and we’re on the Under. |
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08-03-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Angels picked up a 3-1 win in last night’s game between these division rivals who have now played 8 times this season. In those 8 meetings they’ve topped 8 runs just 1 time and their average total runs scored when these 2 meet is 5.8. That’s understandable as both offenses rank near the bottom of MLB in most key categories. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Oakland had a solid run coming out of the All Star break but they’ve now been held to 2 runs or less in 3 straight games. LA is averaging just 3.7 RPG over their last 10 outings. Ohtani gets the call for the Angels and he’s pretty much shut down everybody. His ERA 2.81 and his xERA is even lower at 2.48. He’s also been a strike out machine averaging over 13 per 9 innings pitched. He has not faced Oakland this year giving him a leg up in this meeting. The A’s will go with Kaprielian who’s numbers aren’t as gaudy with a 4.50 ERA, however opponents are hitting just .227 vs him and he has been on his game as of late. Over his last 4 starts, Kaprielian has allowed a total of 4 ER’s in 22 innings of work. He has allowed just 23 baserunners in that 22 inning span. He has also not faced the Angels this season which gives him an advantage in our opinion. Historically both pitchers have been very solid vs the opposing hitters on these teams with Kaprielian allowing a batting average of .156 while Ohtani has allowed a BA of only .114. Another low scoring affair here and we like the UNDER in this one. |
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07-31-22 | Twins v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 runs Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 4:10 PM ET - Nine runs will get us a win in this contest and our predictive analytics suggest 10 or more total runs in this series finale. It starts with the pitchers for both teams as the Twins send right-handed Dylan Bundy to the hill with the Padres countering with lefty Sean Manaea. Bundy is 6-4 on the season with a 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. In his last five starts he has two wins and three no decisions but has allowed 15 earned runs on 27 hits in 24.1 innings of work. Historically, Bundy hasn’t been great, sporting an ERA over 4.79 in four of his last five seasons. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in five of their last six games and hit .235 versus righties this season scoring an average of 4.27 runs/9 innings. Minnesota is on an 8-1 Over streak as a result of scoring or allowing runs depending on the day. The Twins have scored 4 or more runs themselves in 5 of their last seven games and have allowed 4+ in 5 of six. Minnesota has ripped left-handed pitchers in their last ten games by hitting .274 as a team and producing 5.89 run/9 innings in that span. It all adds up to a high scoring game today. BET OVER! |
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07-30-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 7:10 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up and it features two solid starters with Chris Flexen for Seattle and Framber Valdez. Valdez is 9-4 on the season with a miniscule 2.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s a solid strikeout pitcher with 110 K’s this season in 121.2 innings of work. In his last start he faced this same Seattle team and went 6.2 innings with 8 strikeouts, 8 hits and 3 earned runs which all came in the 6th. The Mariners will send Flexen to the mound who is 7-8 on the season with a 3.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He's allowed just 3 earned runs in his last three starts in 15.2 innings of work. Flexen faced this Houston team in June and allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 6.2 innings of work. We expect two quality starts for both of these pitchers and then they’ll turn it over two a pair of the best bullpens in MLB. The Astros have the #1 ranked bullpen in terms of ERA at 2.72, Seattle is 11th at 3.61. Seattle is scoring just 3.35 runs/9 innings in their last ten games; Houston is scoring 4.22 run/9 innings their last ten games against right-handed pitchers. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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07-29-22 | Cubs +127 v. Giants | Top | 4-2 | Win | 127 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Cubs +125 vs. San Francisco Giants, 10:15 PM ET - We like the pitching matchup and the Cubs as a dog in this setting. The Cubs went into the All-Star Break with a win, then proceeded to cash in five straight games after the break before losing 2-4 last night. The Giants on the other hand had lost seven games in a row prior to last night’s win. In each teams last ten games the Cubs have a net run differential of +1 run per game, while the Giants are a negative -1.8 runs per game. Overall, the Cubs have faired slightly better against right-handed pitchers than the Giants have but in their last ten games the difference is drastically in favor of Chicago. In their last ten games the Giants are hitting just .188 as a team versus righties and producing 3.40 runs/9 innings. The Cubs on the other hand are hitting .254 as a team in their last ten against right-handed pitchers. Chicago will send Marcus Stroman to the bump today who is 2-5 on the season with a 4.69 ERA but a solid 1.15 WHIP. He’s had two really bad outings this season against St Louis and Tampa Bay where he allowed 9 and 7 earned runs but other than that he’s been solid. In his last three starts he hasn’t earned a decision but has allowed just 2 total earned runs, 8 hits in 14.1 innings of work. Cobb is 3-4 on the season with a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In his four most recent games he has one solid outing against the Brewers but has allowed 10 earned runs and 20 hits. We like Chicago in this game and expect a solid win by the visitor. |
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07-28-22 | Guardians -113 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -115 over Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sox have fallen off a cliff in July and they’ve dropped to last place in the AL East. They’ve won only 6 of their 24 games this month and Cleveland has taken 2 of the first 3 in this series. The Guardians have outhit Boston in all 3 games of this series (+10 hits in the series) despite their 1 loss. Over the last 10 games, Boston is hitting .215 and averaging just 3.6 RPG. During that stretch they have lost by an AVERAGE of 5.8 runs per game and they’ve had 52 fewer hits than their opponents! We don’t look for that struggling offense to get right tonight vs Cleveland’s red hot Tristan McKenzie who has allowed a total of 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 26.2 innings. Opponents are hitting just .197 this season off McKenzie which is bad news for a Boston offense that is hitting just .235 this month. McKenzie is backed by a strong bullpen that ranks 10th in MLB in ERA. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been red hot at the plate averaging over 6 RPG while hitting over .300 as a team their last 10 games. For the month of July, the Guardians have the 3rd best batting average in the Majors at .275. They’ll be facing Crawford who has appeared in 14 games this season but has made only 5 starts. Crawford has only made 15 career appearances (1 last year) and his lifetime ERA in the Majors in those appearances is 5.32. Unlike Cleveland who has a solid bullpen, the Sox rank 25th in reliever ERA so when Crawford exits we don’t expect Boston to shut down this red hot Guardian offense. This is a short money line in our opinion and we’ll grab Cleveland tonight. |
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07-27-22 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - These 2 NL East rivals have already met 9 times this season and they’ve scored an average of 9.8 RPG in those meetings. Yesterday they hit 9 total runs with two of their top pitchers facing off with Nola for Philly and Strider for Atlanta. Today we have Gibson on the hill for the Phillies and he has struggled allowing at least 5 ER’s in 3 of his last 5 starts and his ERA this season is 4.69. He’s been susceptible to the HR this year allowing 1.25 per 9 innings and he’s facing an Atlanta line up that ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 1.55 HR’s per 9 innings. Braves hitters have had their way historically with Gibson with a batting average of .317 over 111 plate appearances. Philly will face Charlie Morton who has been pitching well but has struggled vs this team. In his 1 outing vs Philadelphia this season Morton allowed 2 ER’s in 5.2 innings of work but was rather fortunate as he allowed 11 baserunners in that game. Philadelphia batters have a lifetime average of .303 vs Morton over 142 plate appearances. He’s also been much better at home compared to on the road where his ERA is 4.59 with a WHIP of 1.37. The Braves have totaled at least 9 runs in each of their last 10 games with 9 of those going Over the total. Both offenses are among the best in the Majors ranking in the top 7 in RPG and HR’s per 9 innings. Weather looks perfect for a high scoring game with temps in the 80’s and light winds blowing straight out to center field. Over 9 is the play here. |
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07-26-22 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10.5 Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are obviously one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.61 runs per game and much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game. The White Sox are currently 16th in runs/9 innings on the year but have improved dramatically in the last 30-days by producing 129 total runs in 25 games. In fact, the Chi Sox averaged just 3.66 runs/per 9 innings on June 1st but now produce 4.41 on the season. Today the starting pitchers are Kopech for the Sox and Marquez for the Rockies. Kopech is 3-6 on the year with a 3.36 ERA but his XERA moving forward is 5.04. Kopech has allowed 32 hits in his last 30.4 innings pitched allowing 20 earned runs. Marquez is 6-7 on the year with a 5.47 ERA and he’s been hit pretty hard in his last four starts giving up 13 earned runs, 20 hits in 22.3 innings of work. This total is high for a reason…BET OVER! |
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07-25-22 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s – 9:40 PM ET - We are betting the value here and Over 8 runs. These same two teams and pitchers just met in Houston in mid-July and the Over-Under on the game was 8.5. The game featured 16 total hits with 18 men left on base and finished with 7 runs. Oakland owns one of the worst offenses in baseball this season ranking 27th or worse in home runs, OPS, Average and runs/9 innings but they’ve been much better of late. In their last five games overall, the A’s are hitting .251 as a team and scoring 4.93 runs per game. Oakland’s last five games have averaged 9.20 total runs per game. Houston is in the top half of the league in most key offensive categories including runs/9 innings (4.53), OPS, rank 3rd in home runs and 3rd in fewest strikeouts per game. The A’s will send Adam Oller to the hill who is a starter/reliever and in the games he’s started he is 0-3 with an ERA over 8.5. In his last four starts he’s given up 22 hits, 18 earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. Jake Ordorizzi is 4-2 on the year with a 3.56 ERA for the Astros which are solid numbers but the A’s are seeing him for the third time this season so the hitters should have an edge. Bet the value and OVER here. |
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07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 1:35 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +84 total runs on the season, the Angels are 22nd at minus -42 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.96 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Ian Anderson who is 8-5 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. Anderson has pitched well in his last two starts allowing just 3 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work. Prior to his two solid outings he lost two games but those were against the Phillies and Dodgers who are two of the higher scoring teams in the Majors. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Reid Detmers for the Angels who is 2-3 on the year with a 4.11 ERA, 0-1 on the road. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 33-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
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07-23-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 7:20 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +79 total runs on the season, the Angels are 21st at minus -37 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.94 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Kyle Wright who is 11-4 on the season with a 2.95 ERA. Wright is 7-1 in his last 9 starts with one no decision and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball with 107 on the year. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Patrick Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-4 on the year with a 2.95 ERA, but hasn’t pitched well of late allowing 21 hits in his last 16.1 innings of work. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 32-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
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07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:20 PM ET - Milwaukee limped into the All-Star Game having lost three straight games to the Giants and 4 of their last five overall. The break came at a good time for Milwaukee, and we expect a renewed effort here at home in the opener of this series with the Rockies. The Brewers send their Ace to the mound with Corbin Burnes who is 7-4 on the season with a 2.14 ERA and miniscule .90 WHIP. Colorado will have a tough time getting men on base versus Burnes who has 144 strikeouts on the season, just 29 walks and 12 home runs. Colorado has solid overall offensive numbers on the season but much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game and hit .287 as a team. On the road though the numbers are drastically different for the Rockies. Colorado hits just .233 on the road and score 3.02 runs per game which is the second-lowest number in baseball. The Rockies also hit just .212 against right-handed pitchers on the road and score even fewer runs/9 innings at 2.75. Milwaukee is the 12th highest scoring team in baseball at 4.57 runs/9 innings and do it with the long-ball ranking 4th in the Majors in home runs. The Brewers hit 1.38 home runs per game at home which is the 4th highest number in MLB. Milwaukee should get plenty of scoring opportunities versus Antonio Senzatela who is 3-5 on the year with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He’s been even worse on the road at 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Senzatela is expected to see his pitching statistics worsen with an xERA of 5.92 and xFIP of 4.27 which are both higher than his current numbers. The moneyline is out of the question here but the Run Line is in the wheelhouse at -1.5 (-125). |
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07-21-22 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 7.5 RUNS Detroit Tiger @ Oakland A’s (Game 1) 3:37 PM ET - We are playing UNDER the total in the first game of the doubleheader between the Tigers and A’s today. These two teams possess the worst scoring offenses in the Majors with the Tigers ranking 30th in runs/9 inning at 3.24, 27th in team batting average at .229, 29th in OPS and 30th in homeruns. It’s been even worse for the Tigers in their most recent ten games as they’ve managed just 2.70 runs/9 innings. The A’s are right there with Detroit as they rank 29th in runs per 9 innings at 3.38, 30th in team average at .211, 30th in OPS and 29th in homeruns. In their last ten games the A’s have a higher run production at 4.01 but they had an anomaly game of 14 runs in that stretch versus Texas. Detroit starter Skubal is 6-8 on the year with a 4.11 ERA but his expected ERA (XERA) is lower at 3.36 and he owns an XFIB of 3.28 meaning he’s pitching better overall than his numbers would indicate. Zach Logue is slated to start today for the A’s and the lefty should have a solid day against this Tiger lineup. Logue was just called up on July 9th and pitched well against Houston with 5 solid innings, 3 hits and 2 earned runs. There is a real possibility one of these teams don’t score a run considering how bad they are offensively so the Under is the bet here. |
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07-17-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, 2:35 PM ET - We expect both teams to put up runs early and often in this match up with a pair of sub-par starters taking the hill. Seattle will send Chris Flexen to the bump, the Rangers counter with Glenn Otto. These two starters have average overall numbers on the season but of today’s starters they have two of the worst XERAs and XFIPs which tells us they have pitched slightly better than they are both expected to in the future. Otto has a 5.81 XERA while Flexen is 5.08. These two teams had 17 hits yesterday but only managed 5 total runs. In the opener of the series, they produced 23 hits and scored 11 total runs. The Mariners offense is below average on the season ranking 24th in runs per/9 innings at 4.17, but in their last ten games they are scoring a full run more at 5.26. Texas ranks 12th in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.57 but in their last ten games they’ve improved that number to 5.30. Combined these two teams are on a 13-7 Over streak. Based on the starting pitching, the bullpen use in the first two games and how the teams are producing runs, we like OVER here! |
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07-16-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4 PM ET - We get two hot hitting teams squaring off today in what should be a run-fest for both teams. Over the course of the last fifteen days the Rays are the 3rd highest hitting team in the Bigs, the O’s are 9th. Over that same time span the Rays have produced 76 runs *4th) while Baltimore has scored 59 (14th). Overall for the season, the O’s are averaging 4.22 run/9 innings while Tampa Bay is averaging 4.24. In their last ten games both teams run production is even higher with Baltimore scoring an average of 5.42 runs/9 innings, Tampa Bay 4.81. Baltimore starting pitcher Dean Kremer has impressive numbers on paper at 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA but we expect to see him start to regress as his XFIP of 4.65 is a better indicator of where he stands overall as a pitcher. His counterpart today is Ryan Yarbrough for the Rays who has the second highest XFIP on the board today of 5.76. Yarbrough is 0-4 on the season with a 5.82 ERA. This number is lower than it should be so grab the value with the OVER! |
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07-15-22 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 8 PM ET - These two teams just pounded out a combined 28 hits yesterday in the Sox 12-2 win and with both hitters seeing the ball well we expect another high scoring game here. In fact, these teams have squared off seven times already this season and every game, but one has seen 9 or more runs scored. The last time the Twins faced Kopech they pounded him for 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. The right-handed Kopech has 2 no-decisions and 4 losses in his last six starts. In his last five outings he’s given up 27 total hits and 18 earned runs in 25.4 innings of work. The Twins offense is 11th in the league in runs/9 innings, 7th in average, 5th in OPS and 9th in home runs. The White Sox have hit well all season with the 4th best team batting average, but it hasn’t translated to runs where they rank 17th. Chicago has seen their run production go up dramatically in recent weeks though as they have scored 77 total runs in their last 15 games which is the second highest number in the Majors behind only the Yankees. In their last ten games they are hitting .310 as a team against lefties and scoring 5.51 runs/9 innings. Those numbers are significant considering they will see the Twins left-handed starter Devin Smeltzer who is 4-2 on the year with a 3.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Smeltzer has allowed 11 total earned runs in his last three starters along with 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work. In his most recent outing, he was shelled for 8 hits and 7 earned runs against Texas. |
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07-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -118 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Seattle has been red hot but this is a terrible spot for them and we’ll fade the M’s tonight. They played a doubleheader yesterday in Washington including a game last night followed by travel to Texas. In their 2-1 win last night, the Mariners went with a bullpen game using 5 pitchers with none lasting more than 3 innings. In their first game of the DH yesterday, Seattle used 4 different relievers so their bullpen is a bit stretched for tonight’s game. They will go with Gonzalez as their starting pitcher tonight and he has been overvalued all season. His ERA is 3.24 but his xERA is 4.64 and his xFIP is 4.99 which is the third highest of any starting pitcher today. The M’s have won only 6 of his 17 starts this season. He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season vs left handed pitchers. The Rangers are averaging 5.9 RPG this season and 6 RPG at home vs lefties. Gonzalez has faced Texas twice this season, the Rangers won both games and scored 9 total runs in his 11.2 innings pitched. While Seattle is in a tough travel spot, Texas will be playing their 7th straight home game and they are 4-2 thus far on their home stand. They will send lefty Perez to the mound. We look for him to bounce back after a rare poor outing vs Minnesota in his most recent start. For the season Perez has an ERA of 2.72 and in his only performance vs Seattle this year he allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Unlike Texas, the Mariners have not been good vs southpaws this season ranking 23rd in MLB with a .235 batting average. Seattle’s run comes to an end tonight in Texas. Take the Rangers |
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07-13-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Houston Astros vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - Yesterday these 2 scored 11 runs with Houston winning 6-5 but the 2 teams combined for only 10 hits which normally would equate to around 5 runs. Nearly half of the runs scored yesterday (5) came in the final 3 innings and only 6 of the 11 runs were actually earned runs. Tonight we anticipate a very low scoring game with 2 outstanding starters on the mound. Ohtani goes for the Angels and he’s been absolutely unhittable as of late. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s in his last 34 innings and he’s allowed a total of 18 baserunners during that stretch! He hasn’t faced LA yet this season but his historical numbers are very good allowing a batting average of .188 lifetime vs current Angel hitters. Houston goes with Javier tonight and he faced LA on July 1st and allowed a total of 1 baserunner in 7 innings pitched. Opponents are hitting just .176 vs Javier this season and he’s facing an LA lineup that has been terrible as of late with a batting average of .177 over their last 10 games. The LA offense has put up more than 4 runs only twice in their last 15 games. Both starters are big strikeout pitchers with each averaging over 12 K’s per 9 innings. If you combine their stats on the season, Ohtani & Javier are averaging 25 K’s per 9 innings and just 5 walks. This one should be low scoring. |