ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story.  Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards!  That’s it.  They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense.  Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference.  The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards.  Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week.  The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home.  The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was.  This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits.  The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012.  Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year.  On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa).  Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September.  Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago?  Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky?  We’ll take it.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215

Notre Dame QB Ian Book is now listed as OUT for this match-up. This is a BIG loss for the Fighting Irish as he was the starter over Brandon Winbush for good reason! The fact is that Winbush has great running ability but he struggles as a passer and is known for making costly mistakes. That sets this one up very well for a big play on the large underdog. Florida State has a solid rushing defense and has allowed just 2.6 yards per game and 102.6 yards per game on the ground their last 6 games! That said, Notre Dame's offense could really struggle to move the ball in this game. The Seminoles have, of course, had a very disappointing season but that makes this a fantastic opportunity for them that will bring out the best in a roster that is still loaded with plenty of talent. Florida State still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility and this match-up at Notre Dame is just one of three remaining games. While an outright upset may be asking a lot, the Seminoles are absolutely relishing the idea of a chance to end the unbeaten season that Notre Dame has enjoyed to this point. These teams, in their recent meetings, have a knack for playing tight games decided by a single score and that is what our math model is forecasting for this game as well. Florida State has won the last 3 meetings. Although FSU is off an ugly loss at NC State, the Noles actually won the yardage battle in that game so the final score was deceiving. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in home games where they are favored by more than 7 points! This certainly has not been a good role for them and the Fighting Irish are already 0-3 in that role this season as they did not come anywhere close to covering versus Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Pittsburgh in this role this season! The Seminoles are 9-2 ATS (and 11-1 SU) in their last dozen non-conference games! Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in November games the past two seasons! We expect those late season struggles at the betting window to continue here for the Fighting Irish. Grab the points with Florida State as an undervalued big road underdog Saturday evening.

Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland.  They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Hmmm?  We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored.  Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game.  The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49.  They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points.  Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore.  The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home.  Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT.   The home team should  have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders).  They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL).  That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league.  By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking.  That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground.  The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home.  Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th.  Lay the small number with Denver. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB.  Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us.  Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3.  Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff.  Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season.  Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16.  He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG.  The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend.   Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore.  They played very well but were an underdog in that game.  Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role.  This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less.  The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer.  The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season).  With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points.  We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406

The Wolverines are out for revenge in a big way at The Big House Saturday! Heading into last year's match-up in Happy Valley at Penn State, Michigan had rolled to 3 straight wins (and 3-0 ATS) in their last 3 meetings with the Nittany Lions. Then, inexplicably last season, the Wolverines got rolled by 4 TD's in last season's match-up. The set up for this season's rematch is perfect for Michigan. Big Blue is off their bye week and they have lowly Rutgers up next. In other words, full focus and attention is on Penn State here. When you look at points allowed this season the Nittany Lions 22.2 points allowed doesn't look too bad in comparison with Michigan's 14.4 points allowed per game. However, there is a huge difference between the level of play on defense in comparing these two teams. The Wolverines have allowed an average of 220 yards per game on the season! That ranks Michigan as the #1 defense in the nation! As for Penn State, they've allowed an average of 424.4 yards per game their last 5 games. This stretch included losses to Ohio State and Michigan State as well as unimpressive (and somewhat fortunate) wins over Indiana and Iowa. Penn State, simply put, is "on the fade" right now and Michigan is on an entirely different level. The Wolverines have won 7 straight games and they've already begun their "revenge season" as they look to get payback for every single Big Ten loss from last season. The Wolverines already beat Wisconsin and Michigan State by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. Now they get revenge against Penn State and then part four of the "revenge season" beckons them in the regular season finale at Ohio State. As a home favorite in Big Ten games, Michigan is already 3-0 ATS this season. Penn State is an ugly 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley was roughed up by the Hawkeyes last week and in the 2nd half was wearing a bulky knee brace. He is not going to have any fun this week either, whether 100% or not, as he goes up against the #1 defense in the nation. Look for a home blowout revenge win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Jersey Devils Money Line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

Perfect situation for a very hungry road dog. The Devils had won 3 straight regular season games over the Lightning entering the post-season last spring. The Bolts got their revenge in the first round of the playoffs as they took the series 4 games to 1. Now it is New Jersey seeking revenge and this spot is ideal for them to get it. While key D-man Victor Hedman is definitely out today and key left-winger Ondrej Palat is also likely to miss for the Lightning, the Devils are actually getting healthier. A number of New Jersey players are now getting healthy and goalie Cory Schneider is back from injury which is great news for the Devils but Keith Kinkaid is likely to get the start here. Kinkaid is seeking playoff revenge in this match-up. He was strong in winning his regular season start versus the Lightning last season but then they got the best of him early in last year's post-season series. Payback time here and the Devils are the healthier team and hungrier team entering this one. Also, the Lightning are off a 7-1 loss and they are an unimpressive 19-18 when off a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. The Devils have won 22 of their last 35 (+$12,500) Tuesday games and are off two days of rest and heading to Tampa Bay with a full head of steam. They are unlikely to be denied here and offering significant underdog value in this spot. Bet underdog New Jersey on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down.  They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB.  He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts.  Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least.  They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses.  Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team.  Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats.  In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10!  That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo.  San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively.  We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games.  Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid.  The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year.  They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season.  That’s bad folks.  While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray.  They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded.  We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team.  The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him.  We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season.  They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati.  They also dominated those games on the stat sheet.  They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season.  In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in.  Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win.  Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games.  They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks.  They look like they are running out of gas to us.  They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards.  Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland.  Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game.  The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense).  The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD.  The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping.  Lay it. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180

Oklahoma State is a disappointing 4-3 on the season but they have a chance to put all of that behind them on Saturday night as the face 6th rated Texas in prime time on Saturday night. It’s homecoming and the Cowboys are honoring the great RB Barry Sanders who will be in the house. Okie State used their bye week to get healthy and focus on some of the basics after losing 3 of their last 4 games. We’re told they’ve had two great weeks of practice heading into this game and should be at their best. OSU is off a bad performance @ KSU two weeks ago losing 31-12 as an 8-point favorite. A week before that they lost at home to a very good Iowa State team in a game that went down to the wire. They had plenty of motivation heading into their bye and we expect them to play very well at home Saturday night. Texas is a bit overrated in our opinion. They’re decent but not great. Not a top 10 type team in our opinion. They have played 7 games this season (6-1 record) and 5 of those games have been one score games. The Horns have not played a true road game in nearly a month and have played only 2 all season, losing @ Maryland and winning @ KSU 19-14 scoring on a punt return and a safety in that game. They have also had a week off but we wouldn’t be surprised if the players are a bit full of themselves so to speak after a 6 game winning streak and their high ranking which has been a long time coming for Texas. They have a huge game at home on deck vs West Virginia as well so facing this struggling OSU team might not bring their peak effort. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will play here but has a bad throwing shoulder so the playbook might be limited for the Horns. UT has covered only once as a favorite this year and they are 1-6 ATS in that role dating back to last season. OSU’s last home win was a shellacking of a very good Boise State game 44-21 back in September. They have struggled since but we have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for them coming off a bye and expect a supreme effort. This becomes a huge game for their bowl eligibility with 3 of their final 4 games coming on the road. OSU has controlled this series as of late winning 4 of the last 5 so they will have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Take Oklahoma State at home.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162

The Cardinal lost last year at Washington State but there is more to this revenge situation than just that. The Cougars went down to Stanford and blasted the Cardinal 42-16 two years ago. That embarrassing home loss is one that deserves payback and this is the perfect spot for it. The Cougars are an amazing 7-0 ATS this season so they are becoming a popular choice with bettors right now. We all know what happens when a team becomes too popular as it is then that the value erodes away. In this case the Cardinal are now down to a 2.5 point choice as of mid-day Friday and this is a Stanford team that is 21-4 SU the last 25 times they've been favored. Also, when the Cardinal are involved in a game where their line range is between +3 and -3, they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Cougars are a long-term 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. In games played on grass, which tends to slow down Mike Leach's offense, Washington State is 2-4 ATS with one of the few such covers being the game at Stanford two years ago. Again, payback time. Although Cardinal RB Bryce Love is questionable for this game he certainly has not had a big season and the sum production of the two running backs who have filled in for him when has not been available is very nearly equal to Love's production on the season. In other words, the Love injury status is merely serving to give even more value here as it is also helping to keep this line low. On the season, Stanford has played a tougher schedule and, even with that, the Cardinals are allowing just 20.7 points per game while the Cougars are allowing 23.3 points per game. This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North as both teams have just one loss like Washington does. Next week Stanford is at Washington and so the Cardinal know that they control their own destiny. Fulfilling their immediate goal of finishing at the top of the PAC-12 North begins here with a big revenging home win over a Cougars team that is simply over-rated at this point in time. The only road wins that the Cougars have this season were at Wyoming and Oregon State. Those teams entered this week with a combined record of 3-12 this season. This is the toughest challenge Washington State has had since their road loss at USC and our math model forecast says they are losing on the road again here. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening PAC-12 match-up.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game found its way over the total early as, surprisingly, both Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale had rare poor starts. However, just in time for World Series baseball...as if right on cue...a cold front rolled through Boston yesterday. It wasn't a dramatic change in temperatures but still the weather change has brought a rather bracing north wind and temperatures dropping into the 40s in the evenings at Fenway Park for these first two games. The hitters managed to get the job done yesterday, despite the cooler temps, but one shouldn't over-react to one game. In fact, now we've seen an over-reaction from the markets as this total went to an 8.5 compared to a 7.5 or 7 in Game 1. That is because the pitching match-up of David Price versus Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't have the flashy appeal of a Kershaw / Sale match-up. However, the fact is each of these guys are very capable southpaws and each are certainly likely to pitch much better than the results seen from Kershaw and Sale yesterday. Ryu is off a poor start at Milwaukee in the NLCS but betting markets have a short-term memory and now they're focused on that when the reality is that the lefty entered that outing with a 0.89 ERA in his 5 prior starts! As for Price, the Red Sox going 14-4 in his home starts this season had a lot do with him firing mostly quality outings in Boston this season. Also, he is coming off the gem versus the Astros in the ALCS and has plenty of momentum coming into this start as a result. Look for a huge effort from both starting pitchers here and our expectation is a 2-1 or 3-2 type game that lands well short of the 8.5 that has been posted on this one. Bet the UNDER in Boston in evening action Wednesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5  Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403

This total made an interesting move this week. It opened at 44.5 and even though more than 75% are on the UNDER, it moved up a point. We liked the OVER to begin with and that move definitely signals a play on here. LSU’s offense is playing much better than most give it credit for. They have scored 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this year. They are perfectly balanced on offense averaging 202 YPG rushing and 202 YPG passing which makes them very tough to defend. Last week against a very good Georgia defense the Tigers put up 36 points and almost 500 yards! We think they’ll do some damage vs a Mississippi State defense that has solid numbers but has played a number of weak offenses including Stephen F Austin, UL Lafayette, Kansas State, and Florida. This will be the most productive offense they’ve faced this season. On the other side of the ball LSU played great last week. They held Georgia to 16 points in a 20 point win. We have a feeling the Tigers put a LOT of emotional effort into that game knowing they were playing a very good Bulldog offense. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if they had a bit of a letdown on that side of the ball. Especially with Alabama on deck after next week’s bye. LSU has been solid defensively but they have given up 21+ points in 3 of their last 5 games. Mississippi State’s offense was rolling early in the season and their totals were mainly set in the high 50’s and low 60’s. They then hit a rough patch on offense vs Kentucky and Florida on back to back weekends but bounced back on that side of the ball last week vs Auburn. The Dogs scored 23 points on 418 yards last week and we look for them to land in that range again this week. Where this total sits right now, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score in the range of 26-19 in favor of LSU. We feel both offenses top those point totals and we take the OVER here. Our math model forecast suggests that you can look for a surprisingly high scoring all out shootout in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

On April 21, 2016 the Lightning won game 5 of a first round playoff series with the Red Wings to take the series 4 games to 1. Ever since that game these teams have met 8 times the past two seasons and, of course, Detroit has had revenge on their minds in every single game but they have lost every time. The fact is that the once-mighty Red Wings just might be the worst team in the league now while Tampa Bay just might be the best team in the league. Certainly the Bolts are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and the amazing thing is that they are so deep in terms of their scoring. The Lightning don't even have to have their biggest stars off to hot starts to be able to have put forth a strong start to this season. That said, Tampa Bay is actually "scary good" right now for opponents while the Red Wings are truly "scary bad". Detroit is winless in their 6 games this season and also winless in their last 10 meetings with the Lightning. Tampa Bay will NOT let up here as they have a 5-game road trip on deck. This is the final home game for the Bolts until October 30th so they want to make this one count in a big way! Tampa's last two wins have come by a combined score of 12-4 while the Red Wings last 3 losses have come by a combined score of 20-8. With that said, we love the value with the Lightning on the Puck Line in this one. Of course on the money line the Bolts are about a 3 to 1 favorite here. However, on the puck line, we get them at a pick'em price by laying the 1.5 goals and our math model forecast is a win by a 3 goal margin in this game. The Lightning are the better team in all phases all over the ice and that shows in a big way on Thursday as the Bolts make it 11 straight wins over the Red Wings with a blowout home win. Bet Tampa Bay on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in evening action Thursday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 46 Points - Arizona @ Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Both of these teams are 4-1 to the OVER this year and we expect another high scoring game on Monday night.  Much has been made of Aaron Rodgers knee problem but the fact is the offense is clicking right now knee problem or not.  They have topped 400 yards in each of the last 2 games and while they scored 22 and 23 points in those games, it should have been much more.  Last week vs Detroit they put up 23 points but the normally reliable Mason Crosby missed 4 FG’s and an extra point thus leaving a potential 13 more points off the board.  A week earlier Green Bay had 19 points just a few minutes into the 2nd half but a terrible Buffalo offense had yet to score so the Pack went pretty conservative offensively and only score one more FG the rest of the way.  We don’t anticipate that happening here.  Green Bay needs a breakout performance (scoring wise) and we think they get it tonight vs a SF defense that has allowed 24, 27, 38, 29, and 28 points in their 5 games this season.  The Niners are 23rd in pass efficiency defense and they do not put much pressure on the QB (1.8 sacks per game).  Rodgers should have a big night.  There is also a good chance he gets WR’s Cobb and Allison back as they practiced on Thursday and they are game time decisions.  Many thought the Niners offense would go in the tank once they lost QB Garopollo for the season.  That really hasn’t been the case as his back up CJ Beathard has led this offense to 27 & 18 points in his absence.  Last week’s 18 point performance should have been MUCH higher as they put up 447 yards vs a solid Arizona defense but missed a FG and had 5 turnovers – many in Arizona territory.  Beathard has thrown for 298 & 349 yards in his 2 starts but he’s also prone to mistakes as he’s turned the ball over 4 times.  Those can lead to defensive scores as he’s given up one in each of his two starts.  The only shut down game for Green Bay’s defense this year was their shutout vs Buffalo.  Let’s not forget the Bills are the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 12 PPG and a terrible 3.7 yards per play which is by far the lowest in the league.  Throw out that game and the Packer defense has allowed an average of 28.5 PPG.  The weather looks decent tonight with temps in the 30’s and little wind (10 MPH or less).  We like the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement.  Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years.  Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game?  Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here.  New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night.  While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date.  They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense).  To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks.  Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6.  The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions.  QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s.  We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one.  The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense.  We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS).  They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010.  KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them.  The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots.  Lay the small number with New England.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year.  They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31.  IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season.  Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude.  They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets.  The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010.  They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday.  While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home.  They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team.  You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more.  The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8.  After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3.  Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL.  That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC.  This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold.  The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look.  People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home.  Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards.  It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game.  Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL.  NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday.  Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver.  The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night.  Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses.  Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT).  The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid.  They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game.  Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss.  He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games.  We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156

With the Buffaloes at 5-0 on the season, ranked in the top 25, and catching significant points here; of course that is attracting attention within the betting markets as the unranked Trojans are only 3-2 on the season. The key though is in strength of schedule. USC has played a much tougher schedule than Colorado has and the result is superb line value here. The Trojans losses were road losses at Stanford and Texas. The Buffaloes have yet to lose a game but their "toughest" games (based on the lines in those contests) were at Nebraska and versus Arizona State. That is certainly noteworthy as Nebraska is now 0-5 on the season and the Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, a game at Southern Cal against a quality Trojans team is certainly a much tougher challenge than hosting ASU and visiting the Huskers (having such an awful season). Also note that the Buffaloes were outgained at Nebraska by a margin of 565 to 395 yards! In other words, Colorado was fortunate to get the win. The Buffs opened the season with a neutral site game against Colorado State and, therefore, this game at USC is just the 2nd true road game for Colorado this season. Considering the Buffaloes, in their first road game of the season, were outgained by 170 yards by a team that is now 0-5 on the season, the Buffs are likely to struggle with the talent level of this Trojans team! Southern Cal is off back to back wins and a bye week. With that said, the Trojans enter this game both rested and confident as they look to make it 3 straight wins in PAC-12 action. USC has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams (they've met annually since the 2011 season) and the average margin of victory has been 19.4 points per win! Colorado is 1-8 ATS when they are a dog of less than 17 points and playing the first of back to back road games (Buffaloes are at Washington State next week). Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday late night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting points with the better team here.  Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme.  We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories.  Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed.  KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them.  While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency.  The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans.  They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense.  We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here.  KC is overvalued right now because of their offense.  They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense.  They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense.  The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP.  This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot.  We’ll make sure we do.  Take the Jags here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387

The Hawkeyes can't wait to get on the field for this one. After a tough home loss versus Wisconsin - game was much closer than final score indicates - Iowa has had two weeks to wait for this game because of a bye last week. That said, off of their first loss of the season, the Hawkeyes are extra hungry. One could argue the same fact for the Golden Gophers as Minnesota is off of their first loss of the season too and is coming off of a bye week. However, that is where the comparisons end. For one thing, Iowa played a solid Badgers team and played them tough. Compare this with Minnesota playing a Maryland team that is certainly not a Big Ten powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination and they got blasted by a 29-point margin. A big concern for the Golden Gophers is they allowed over 300 yards rushing in that game. Iowa has a very capable ground attack that is balanced well by a passing attack that has averaged nearly 300 yards per game their past two games. Iowa has a huge edge at the skill positions as Minnesota lost their senior running back early this season and now has much of the running back duties being handled by freshmen plus the Golden Gophers have a freshman QB whom is a walk-on. There is simply no comparison between the talent level of these teams. Also, while Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th year as the head coach at Iowa - longest-tenured head coach among FBS schools in the nation - PJ Fleck is in his just 2nd season with Minnesota and there are still growing pains. Though the Golden Gophers started the season with 3 straight wins, two of those victories came against over-matched New Mexico State and Miami-Ohio. Minnesota went just 2-7 in Big Ten action last season and is now 2-8 in Big Ten games under PJ Fleck after getting demolished by the Terrapins two weeks ago. The 8 losses have come by an average margin of 19 points per defeat. That is very close to what our computer math model is predicting for this game. Iowa is a 1 TD favorite but the forecast is for a blowout by a 3 TD margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they've been a favorite of less than 17 points and they are facing an opponent off of a SU loss by a margin of more than 14 points. That system fits perfectly here! Look for a road rout win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points.  That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th.  The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season.  On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one.  The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa.  However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense.  The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game.  Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season.  They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday.  Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense.  Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less.  The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 52 Points - New Orleans @ NY Giants, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

We like the value with the number here as this total has been bet all the way up to 52 after opening at 49. Vegas is forced to set the number this high as the Saints have played two games that ended with 168 total combined points. But those games came against the Falcons and Bucs who both have horrible defenses (29th and 30th in defensive efficiency) and good offenses (TB 5th, ATL 12th in offensive efficiency). That produced to VERY high scoring games with the Saints. In their other game against the Browns (similar to the Giants) they totaled just 39 points. What's important to note here is that the Saints defense has some ugly statistics this season, but again, consider they've played two really bad defenses and padded those numbers. The same can be said about their offense. The Giants meanwhile have played two of three low scoring affairs with totals of 35, 33 and 49 points. In their game in Houston last week the Giants and Texans had just 35 total points with 2 minutes to play before two late garbage TD's by the Texans (1 came with 1 second left). The Giants are allowing just 20.7PPG and have the 9th best yards per point defense in the NFL. You have to go back a few years to find a Giants game with a total set this high which tells us enough. New York is 27th in the NFL in pace of play while the Saints are 21st. In the last seven meetings in the Big Apple the Under has cashed 5 times. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg).  The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141

When you see a ranked team hosting an unranked foe and yet priced in a "pick'em" range it certainly is something worthy of investigation. Of course the markets are enamored with Kentucky right now after seeing them upset Mississippi State last week. However the Bulldogs were caught looking ahead to a big game against Florida (their former coach) and they paid for it with an ugly loss. Prior to this game the Wildcats have looked strong but two of their three prior games were against Central Michigan and Murray State. They're facing a tough South Carolina team that has inexplicably lost 4 straight meetings with the Cats. In other words, revenge is in order here. The Gamecocks have a ton of momentum here as they completely demolished the Commodores in the 2nd half of their game last week at Vanderbilt. Though South Carolina lost by 10 to the Wildcats last season, they actually outgained Kentucky in that game. The Gamecocks have faced the tougher schedule this season and also could have the fresher legs here. The Wildcats will be playing their 5th straight Saturday while South Carolina had a bye two weeks ago on the 15th prior to then pummeling Vanderbilt last week. Kentucky is 20-37 SU (including 3-6 SU in recent seasons) when off of a win over an SEC foe. South Carolina, in games with a line between -3 and +3, has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in recent seasons. The Gamecocks are also 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in their last 4 games played on turf. The South Carolina passing attack has been a clear strength this season and will be the difference-maker in this match-up. The Wildcats rely heavily on the run and the Gamecocks actually have been strong against the run but their numbers got skewed by the match-up against Georgia. Of course the Bulldogs are certainly one of the top teams in the nation and note that South Carolina held their other two opponents this season (including Vandy last week) to an average of only 3 yards per carry. With this line currently at -1 on Kentucky but possibly moving higher (the public choice in this match-up) it is also worth nothing that the Wildcats are on a 2-11 ATS run as a favorite! Look for a road rout revenge win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay.  This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record.  The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo.  They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite.  A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck.  The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over.  Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan.  They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes.  The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits.  Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6.  The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3.  Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss.  They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe.  Take the points here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET

This total was set at 9 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8.5 as of Tuesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Keep in mind, even though the Cardinals have been locked into a race for a post-season berth, they have not been getting involved in pitchers duels. In fact, with last night's 6-4 loss to the Brewers flying over the total, the over is now a perfect 7-0 in the Cards last 7 games. St Louis should stay hot at the plate versus Gio Gonzalez. Though he has some good numbers since coming to the Brewers, Gonzalez has struggled on the road this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start at St Louis. That tough outing is part of a stretch since mid-June that has seen Gonzalez allow 34 earned runs in 46 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 9 road starts. That equates to a 6.56 ERA for the Brewers southpaw in his last 9 outings away from home. Cardinals southpaw Austin Gomber is also likely to struggle in this one. He is nearing a career high in innings pitched (majors and minors combined) and appears to be wearing down. Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Each of those outings went over the total and we expect another one here! The Brewers have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games and Milwaukee stays "locked in" at the plate tonight. Look for an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in St Louis in evening action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL.  Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points.  Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win.  Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games.  Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster.  Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts.  A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense.  Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games.  Expect a big day from him.  The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game.  They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year.   Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread.  Baltimore by a TD or more in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392

Air Force returned only 5 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. That 6 became 5 when starting DB James Jones was lost for the season (ACL). Last season the Falcons went just 5-7 on the season as they returned only 6 starters total! That is why there has been a big drop-off in talent level and experience at Air Force as their three previous bowl seasons (2014 to 2016) saw them average 13 returning starters. Now the past two seasons, and with the loss of Jones, they've averaged 8 returning starters. This spells trouble against the revenge-minded Aggies here. Utah State has had this game circled as they have lost each of the last 3 meetings with Air Force and all 3 were very close games. Keep in mind, prior to this 3-game losing streak (each game decided by just a single score), the Aggies had won the two prior meetings (2013 and 2014) by an average margin of 25 points per game. We feel that, based on the disparity between these two teams this season coupled with the fact that this game is in Logan Utah, a blowout of similar proportion is on tap here! Utah State returned 18 starters this season and looks solid on both sides of the ball and they are particularly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force is off of a bye last week but the Aggies have a bye week on deck so there is no real edge for the Falcons there. In fact, with how "out of sorts" that the Falcons were at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (allowed 471 yards passing!) a bye week may not help matters as Air Force is seeking some consistency in their play and they don't have it right now. The Aggies threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win and they did eclipse 300 passing yards at Michigan State in their season opener too. Also, the ground attack has averaged nearly 300 yards per game the past two weeks. Utah State's defense has looked much improved early this season and has the veteran experience to handle the Falcons option attack. Air Force is the only Mountain West team to beat the Aggies each of the last three seasons. That's right, not even Boise State has done that as Utah State upset them at Boise in 2015. The point being that head coach Chris Wells and the upperclassmen that are up and down this Aggies lineup are ready for their revenge here and they'll take advantage of a Falcons team that is heading for another down season just like last year. The Aggies already have benefited from 9 turnovers in 3 games this season and Utah State will continue be opportunistic on defense. This is all without linebacker Suli Tamaivena. Though the senior is still out the Aggies defense has filled in well in his absence and is loaded with upperclassmen. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday night Mountain West match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

This total was set at 8.5 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8 as of Wednesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Boston's David Price has found Yankee Stadium to be a "house of horrors" for him ever since he came to the Red Sox. The southpaw has gone 0-5 with a 10.44 ERA in his 5 starts there. In his most recent outing there he allowed 5 homers on July 1st! He is not the only pitcher likely to struggle tonight. The Yankees Luis Severino just hasn't been the same pitcher he was in the first half of the season when he was dominating the opposition. The last time he faced the Red Sox (August 3rd) he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings and Severino had more walks than strikeouts. In his last 11 starts, the Yankees right-hander has gone 3-6 with a 6.43 ERA. The over is 10-3 in Severino's 13 starts since July 1st. Also, he has made 5 home starts during that stretch and the over went a perfect 5-0! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Price's last 3 starts at Yankee Stadium. After that pitchers' duel last night, don't be surprised when this one sees runs early and often which should lead to an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early evening action Wednesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 41.5 Points - NY Giants @ Dalllas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

Because of the way these two offenses performed in week 1, we’re getting some solid value on the OVER here.  The total opened 43.5 and has dropped ever since and we’re now jumping on the OVER.  Last week Dallas scored only 8 points and the NY Giants put up just 15.  While neither team lit it up yardage wise, both moved the ball enough to score more than what they did a week ago.  Also keep in mind both were facing top 10 defenses from a year ago (Jacksonville & Carolina) so the struggles weren’t completely surprising.  We expect the Giants to have a much better offense this year despite what happened last week.  They have shored up their offensive line and they have added more weapons including RB Saquon Barkley.  They also have WR Odell Beckham back at full strength and with him in the line-up last year they averaged 23 PPG compared to 13 PPG when he was not available.  Dallas didn’t look as good offensively as the Giants but they have potential with one of the top RB’s in the league along with a solid QB in Dak Prescott.  We’re pretty sure both teams stressed offensive performance and finishing drives in practice this week so expect a better performance from each.  If this total stays at 42 or less, it will be the lowest total set on this rivalry since 2005.  They’ve simply adjusted this one too much and we take the OVER.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points - Oakland @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Denver put up 27 points last week on Seattle which may look impressive but the Seahawks defense is nowhere near what it used to be.  We anticipate Seattle’s defense, who lost 5 former pro-bowlers off last year’s defense alone, to be in the lower third of the league.  We took advantage of that last week using the OVER in Seattle – Denver and cashed in.  That was set at 42 and this week it’s 45 or 45.5 in this game.  Despite giving up 33 points last week to the Rams, the Oakland defense was fairly impressive in our minds.  They held one of, if not the best, offense to just 98 yards and 10 points in the first half.  For the game the Rams only had 365 yards and 26 points if you take away the late pick 6 LA had.  So not bad at all for the Raider defense.  Denver’s defense was solid last week allowing Seattle only 306 total yards.  The Broncos were the top total defense in the NFL last year allowing 290 YPG and we expect them to be near the top again this year.  Neither of these offenses is overly dynamic and both teams know each other very well being a division match up.  5 of the last 6 in this series have gone UNDER the total and Oakland had now gone UNDER in 8 straight games dating back to last year.  We anticipate a defensive grinder here and we’re on the UNDER.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205

Tremendous line value here. When you look at the fact that Washington was roughly a "pick'em" in their match-up against Auburn to open up the season and the fact that those same Tigers are now a double digit favorite this weekend over LSU, you can see why perceived value here with the Huskies in the 5-point range is certainly more than just perception! The point being that Utah is really not close to the level of the Tigers of Auburn and yet the pricing here is really not that much different. This has led to exceptional line value here on a Washington team that very nearly did (and arguably should of) beat Auburn in that season opening game in a "neutral" site game at Atlanta, Georgia. We like the fact that the Huskies returned most of their starters (including on defense) from last season's team while Utah lost most of their starters on defense. The Utes are 2-0 on the season but they've played two weak teams and they barely escaped at Northern Illinois last week. They had a late field goal and a interception return for a TD in a truly unimpressive 17-6 victory over the Huskies. They face much tougher "Huskies" this week and, unlike the Utes, Washington has already faced tougher competition by virtue of that season opener against Auburn. Being battle-tested by an SEC foe gives the Huskies an additional early season edge over a Utes team whose inexperienced defense is going to spell trouble for Utah fans as they won't be able to stop a potent Washington offense. The Huskies aerial attack, led by senior QB Jake Browning, will dominate here. Washington is on a 9-4 ATS run as road chalk in the PAC-12 and they are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with Utah. We see every reason to believe that the series dominance continues this weekend! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - Seattle @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks were long known as one of the top defenses on the NFL and they look like they are still living off those laurels as this total is set too low.  Seattle has lost a ton of defensive talent over the last few years including 5 former pro bowlers off last year’s team alone (Chancellor, Sherman, Avril, Bennett, and Richardson).  Last year they finished outside the top 10 in total defense for the first time since 2010 and we look for a further drop this year minus those players.  We project the Seattle defense to finish in the bottom half of the league this season.  The Denver defense also fell off drastically last year after allowing 18 PPG in 2016 the allowed 24 PPG a year ago.  So both defenses a bit overrated entering the season in our minds.  Offensively Denver should improve greatly with new QB Case Keenum who is a big upgrade over the Bronco QB’s last year (Siemian, Osweiler, and Lynch).  He has some very good weapons at wideout and TE so we look for an improvement on last year’s 21 PPG.  Seattle averaged 23 PPG last year and with Russell Wilson at QB they are always a threat to put up big numbers.  They scored over 20 points in 10 of their 16 games last year and we have a feeling with their defense taking a big step back Seattle will have to be aggressive offensive to try and outscore people this year. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393

While Arizona State did get a big win last week it came against a UTSA team that is one of the most inexperienced in the nation this season. That said it was not a huge surprise that the Sun Devils won big in coach Herm Edwards debut. However, now Arizona State faces a much tougher opponent and we were looking for an early season spot to fade coach Edwards and this is it. Edwards has to be one of the most baffling coaching hires for a Power 5 conference in recent memory. He had been out of coaching for so long and away from the college game for even longer. That said, beating the Roadrunners is one thing but trying to avoid a bad loss at the hands of a ranked team that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation is another matter entirely. Michigan State was not overly impressive last week but Utah State is a quality opponent. We also like the fact that the Spartans have a bye week on deck. That said, though a late night game in the southwestern US heat may not be the most appealing for MSU, the fact is they are geared up and ready to leave it all on the field knowing their Big Ten opener is still two weeks away. Michigan State will be able to establish the run and that will open things up for QB Brian Lewerke whom is the type of mobile QB that gives defenses fits. The Sun Devils defense lost most of their starters from last season and that is bad news against a Spartans offense that returned nearly all of its starters from last year. This is a big play on a team (MSU) with plenty of continuity from last season and a big play against a team (ASU) that is going through a coaching change and still trying to install new schemes and adjust to a lot of new players in key roles as well. A weak team like the Roadrunners was unable to expose any of that due to the talent gap between the teams but Michigan State is going to exploit all of these Arizona State weaknesses in a huge way and we get line value since the Spartans are on the road and that is (as of Friday morning) keeping this line below a 7. Lay the points and expect a dominating road win in this Saturday late night match-up.

10* UNDER the total – Michigan @ Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET We expect both defenses to dominate this game. Michigan had one of the best defenses in the nation last year allowing their opponents just 271 YPG (3rd nationally). The Wolverines held 9 of their 13 opponents last year to 20 points or less. They return nearly everyone on defense including 9 starters and 17 of their top 20 tacklers. Our word from Ann Arbor is their defensive line has been absolutely dominant in practice and we expect them to be the best unit on the field on Saturday. They’ll be facing a Notre Dame offense that likes to run and simply isn’t very good at throwing the football. Irish starting QB Wimbush struggle with accuracy last year hitting under 50% of his pass attempts and those struggles have continued in practice this year per our reports. Notre Dame also had to replace 3 of their 5 starting offensively lineman so they’ll have big problems with this Michigan defense. Offensively, Michigan likes to run the ball more often than not as well. They are breaking in a new QB in Shea Patterson who had some success at Ole Miss but is still learning the ropes with his new offense. Patterson will now be without one of his top wideouts as starter Tarik Black injured his foot and won’t be playing in this game. Expect Harbaugh to be conservative with his offense and lean heavily on his defense in this game. We like the Irish defense, with 9 starters back, much better than their offense going into the season. They also held 9 of their 13 opponents to 20 points or less last season and return 9 of their top 11 tacklers. We envision this being a field position, defensive type battle and UNDER is the play.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET

The wind is blowing out again this afternoon at Wrigley Field. Yesterday's game saw 16 runs scored and we expect another high-scoring match-up this afternoon. Look for today's game to pick up right where yesterday's game left off in a big way. The starting pitching match-up here should lead to plenty of pop from both lineups. The over is 13-5-1 in Homer Bailey's 19 starts versus the Cubs in his career. Also, when he most recently faced them he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings back in May. The last time he faced them at Wrigley Field (August of last year) he also allowed 6 earned runs and that was in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Bailey enters this start having a dreadful season (1-11) and also he is trending the wrong direction. He is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 29 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings over his past 3 starts. As for the Cubs Kyle Hendricks, he is off of a strong start in terms of earned runs allowed but note that he gave up 10 hits in that 7-inning stint. Hendricks has now allowed 25 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The last two times he faced the Reds (both were this season) he allowed 4 runs each time. Though neither one of those starts went over the total, only 4 of his 12 starts against Cincinnati in his career have stayed under the total. The over is 17-8 the last 25 times the Cubs have hosted the Reds. The over is 14-7 in Cincy's Sunday games this season. The Cubs are getting their sticks going again at home as they've notched at least a dozen hits in 3 of their last 4 games at Wrigley Field. Another slugfest appears likely at Wrigley Field and we also like the additional value becoming available now as the early move on this total was from 10.5 down to a 10. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

The Royals Danny Duffy is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The southpaw is trying to come back from a shoulder problem. Duffy has given up 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Now he faces a Rays team that has notched 14 hits in each of the past two games. Behind Duffy is a Royals bullpen that is 14-28 with a 5.18 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the majors. While the Rays pitching situation is certainly much better, this is still a total (7 runs) in an American League game that should prove to be far too low. Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow has certainly enjoyed some success since coming to Tampa Bay from Pittsburgh. However, his ERA with the Rays is 2 runs higher in night games compared to day games and this has been a long-term trend for him. With the Pirates this season Glasnow worked out of the bullpen and he had a 5.18 ERA in night games this season. Last year with Pittsburgh the right-hander went 1-6 with a 8.67 ERA in his 12 night game appearances (10 starts). Opponents hit .249 against him under the lights. So with the Royals sticks also contributing very well toward the low total on Thursday's match-up this one should easily fly over the total as the Rays stay hot at the plate and pound Duffy and a weak KC bullpen! Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER - Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

Even without Mike Trout, the Angels continue to love hitting at Texas. The Angels have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 6 games played at Texas this season. Also, not only has Los Angeles continued to hit well in the first 3 games of this 4-game set, the Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games (all without Trout) as they've reached double digits in hits in 5 of those 7 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Yovani Gallardo. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Gallardo has an overall 6.39 ERA this season. This comes as no surprise as he has been on a downhill slide for years. In 2016 and 2017 combined, Gallardo went 11-18 with a 5.57 ERA! He is very hittable and the way the Angels have thrived in this ballpark he is likely to struggle this afternoon. As for Angels starter Jaime Barria, he does have strong numbers against the Rangers this season but that's because one of the two starts was in Anaheim and the one that was in Texas was in mid-April when the weather was much different and, in fact, the wind was blowing in from center at 20 miles per hour in that game. Now, in the heat of the summer and with the Rangers one of the top slugging teams in the majors when on their home field, look for much different results this afternoon. Yes, this total is a big number but, of the 6 match-ups between these teams played in Arlington this season, every single game has totaled at least 9 runs. In fact the average total runs scored has been 12.3 per game. With this pitching match-up, the fact that this is an afternoon game, and the way both teams are swinging the bats (Rangers averaging 7.4 runs per game last 7 home games) we look for these teams to easily get to a dozen runs (and then some) this afternoon. Bet the OVER in Texas in afternoon evening action Sunday

ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET

The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball as they have now won 8 straight games. Keep in mind yesterday's win over Washington was a shutout until the Nationals got a pair of runs in the top of the 9th. While St Louis has been red hot, the Nats are on the fade again as they've lost 4 straight games. Tanner Roark gets the start here and he is off of a win versus the Cubs but he threw 117 pitches in that start and did give up 9 hits in 7 and 2 / 3 innings. Though that outing followed back to back solid starts the other two wins came against the last place Reds and a Mets team that has had a very tough season. Now Roark faces a Cardinals team that is red hot and he is 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his 3 career starts versus St Louis. Allowing two base-runners per inning gets you into trouble rather quickly at the MLB level and that 2.00 WHIP will haunt him here at Busch Stadium where he has averaged just 4 innings in his two career starts and he lost both of those outings. The Cardinals counter with Luke Weaver whom has a number of big edges. One is that, unlike Roark, Weaver is well-rested here. He missed his last start but it was due to something very minor (a cut on his index finger) and he comes in with a fresh arm for this outing. The other big edge is that the Nationals have never faced him! This is often the biggest of edges for a hurler and, in this case, Weaver has been in solid form ever since some ups and downs the first few months of this season. Since July 1st, Weaver has a 3.31 ERA in his last 6 starts. The Cardinals have won both of Weaver's home starts since the All Star break. Washington is 5-14 their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are 15-4 their last 19 games overall. Clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions and excellent line value here on the small home favorite. Bet St Louis on the money line in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

The Rockies Chad Bettis recently returned from the disabled list and he had an awful outing in his first start since coming back. That home outing versus the Pirates continued his long-term struggles at home this season. Bettis has not registered a victory in any of his 8 starts this season at Coors Field and the right-hander has compiled a 9.73 ERA in those outings. The Dodgers got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work when they faced him at Colorado earlier this season. As for Los Angeles starter Rich Hill, the southpaw has allowed only 5 earned runs on just 13 hits while striking out 18 in the 16 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts versus the Rockies. Also, Hill enters this start in top current form as he has a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and has surrendered only 12 hits in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings over those three outings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts and all 4 victories came by at least two runs. While LA is a bit pricey on the money line in this game we can get value by backing Los Angeles on the run line in this one as they are in a "pick'em" price range at -1.5 runs. Considering 7 of the 9 losses the Rockies have with Bettis on the mound this season have come by 2 or more runs, we see strong odds that this one turns into a road rout decided by a multiple run margin. The Dodgers are 19-8 the last 27 times they entered a game off of a loss and also 5-2 the last 7 times they've entered a game off of consecutive losses. LA is also 13-6 in Sunday games this season while the Rockies are 6-12 on Sundays this year Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Rangers starter Ariel Jurado has been a pleasant surprise in terms of his overall numbers but the fact is that he has only made 3 starts and only 1 was a bit shocking in terms of quality. Jurado recently held the defending world champion Astros to 1 run in 6 innings. However, in his other two starts he faced two bad teams (Orioles and White Sox) but allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in a total of only 9 and 2 / 3 frames. In other words, he was far from dominant and he hasn't recorded many strikeouts either. Additionally, Jurado had never pitched above the AA level of the minors before being called up by the Rangers! This is a guy that has been hit at a .270 level in the minors, never even pitched at AAA, struggled against the O's and Pale Hose, and now is pitching at Yankee Stadium tonight. We don't expect this to go well at all for Jurado. His Rangers teammates tend to hit well at home but they're a different team on the road and tonight they're facing a tough assignment too. The Yankees are starting J.A. Happ and the southpaw has a 1.23 ERA in his last 3 starts (1 being his Yankees debut) and the lefty also has a 1.89 ERA in going a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Happ registered 9 strikeouts in 7 innings when he faced them in April and Texas is known for striking out far too much especially when on the road. Away from home, the Rangers batting average (.230) and strikeouts per game (10) ranks them near dead last in the majors in each category. Texas is 25-43 against teams with a winning record this season while the Yankees are 34-21 against teams with a losing record this season. 49 of the Rangers 65 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 53 of the Yankees 71 wins this season have been by decided by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Great value here with the run line available at a very low price. Lay it! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

Since the All Star break the Tigers are dead last in the majors with a paltry .315 slugging percentage. Conversely, the A's are near the top of the majors with a .481 slugging percentage since the All Star break. Oakland is a red hot 32-10 their last 42 games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 11-27 their last 38 games. Clearly this is a case of two teams going opposite directions right now and the A's current 5-game winning streak is the best in the majors. Also, Detroit is 2-17 this season in road games where their money line ranges from +175 to +250. Oakland is a fantastic 37-11 this season in games against teams with a losing record! The Tigers are starting Francisco Liriano and he has a 9.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. The A's are starting Trevor Cahill and the right-hander has loved pitched at home this season! Cahill has a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his home starts this season. While Cahill can be expected to dominate at home, note that Liriano went 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road in 2016 and 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road in 2017. Couple this with his recent struggles and you can see why a home blowout is expected here. While the money line is big in this game, the run line allows you to lay a price of only about -120 and certainly we look for the A's win to come by a margin of 2 or more runs today. Bet Oakland on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

This total opened up at a 9.5 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 9 across the board this morning. Great value with the over here. With yesterday's 8-3 win, Cleveland is 8-2 to the over their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They are likely to pound Detroit southpaw Blaine Hardy in this match-up as the Indians are the #1 team in the majors against left-handed pitching this season with a .273 batting average on the year. Cleveland is also the #1 offense in the majors in the month of July. The Indians are averaging 6.4 runs per game and hitting .284 this month! Though the Tigers certainly haven't been producing nearly as well as the Tribe has at the plate, Detroit had scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their 7 prior games before being held to just 3 runs in last night's loss. The Tigers did reach double digits in hits last night for the 3rd time in their last 4 games. The Tigers big issue this evening will be that Hardy is on the mound. The Detroit southpaw has given up 10 runs (7 earned) in 7 innings over his last two starts and both of those starts were at home. Behind him is a Tigers bullpen that has allowed opponents to hit .262 this season and that ranks them as one of the worst pens in the majors while the Indians bullpen (5.14 ERA and 8-16 record) also ranks as one of the worst pens in the majors. The over is 3-0 in Hardy's last 3 home starts. The over is 6-3-2 (67%) in Mike Clevinger's night starts this season. Clevinger is off of a strong start at Texas but he had allowed 28 hits over 23 innings spanning his 4 prior starts and 10 runs (9 earned) spanning the 12 innings in his 2 prior starts. The Tigers are very familiar with him and are catching him at the right time to do some damage this evening at Comerica Park. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET

This total opened up at a 12 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and hot summer weather coupled with light winds allowing the ball to carry extremely well (as per usual) at Globe Life Park in Texas tonight. The first two games of this series have totaled 18 and 23 runs, respectively, so don't let the big number scare you here. This park plays out like a bandbox when the weather is like this and, in fact, both teams reached double digits in runs scored last night! The A's Edwin Jackson has a low ERA on the season but he has pitched in limited action and has walked 7 and struck out just 4 in his last two road starts. The Rangers Martin Perez has had an awful season and has pitched particularly poor at home. The southpaw has a 10.05 ERA in his home starts and all 3 went over the total. The Texas bullpen is also struggling as the Rangers have now allowed 9 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The A's have been one of the hottest lineups in baseball and have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 14 games and Oakland scored at least 6 runs in 8 of those 9 strong games at the plate. Only 19 of the A's 54 road games this season have stayed under the total. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over their last 6 games. We look for these over trends to continue in a BIG way this evening! Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a road rout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he truly had just one "mistake pitch" in his most recent start and that resulted in a 3-run homer. However, the Dodgers still hung on for the 5-3 win in that game and, overall, it was another quality start for Kershaw. The left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in his last 7 starts. LA is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and all 5 of those games were decided by 2 or more runs. Instead of laying a sizable price here on the money line, we're grabbing the run line and laying the 1.5 runs with some shops having this available at no juice as of early game-day morning. The Brewers have struggled against Kershaw in recent seasons as he has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Milwaukee while registering 33 strikeouts in 23 and 1 / 3 innings! The Brewers will have Chase Anderson on the mound for this one. Although the right-hander has a low ERA in recent starts, he has been fortunate as he has allowed 14 hits (including 2 homers) in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. On the season Anderson has a 4.83 ERA in starts at Miller Park. Also, the Dodgers have hit him very hard in recent meetings. Anderson has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in the 11 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Los Angeles. His WHIP in those starts is 2.38 and when a pitcher is giving up nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning it does not take long to get into big trouble! LA has won 11 of their last 15 games and 40 of the Dodgers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost 7 straight games! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a home blowout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he has a 1.44 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season and the southpaw went 12-3 with a 1.95 ERA in his day game starts the past 3 seasons combined! Not only does he love pitching in afternoon action, Kershaw has thrived at home as he went 28-6 with a 1.81 ERA in starts at Dodger Stadium the past 3 seasons and he has a strong 2.85 ERA in limited action at home this season. The Angels have struggled against him in recent seasons and have not seen him yet this season which is a big edge for the Dodgers here considering their lineup just faced the Angels Deck McGuire in his most recent start on the 7th of this month. Note that Kershaw has a 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Angels. As for McGuire, though he had a successful 3-inning stint versus the Dodgers a week ago, he is likely to struggle against them here as they get a quick 2nd look at him plus now McGuire is away from home. McGuire has pitched in 6 road games in his career (3 of those were starts) and he has a 6.64 ERA away from home in his career! Opponents are hitting .302 against him in road games this season. The Angels got the win over the Dodgers yesterday but had previously lost 14 of their last 18 road games! Also, the Angels are just 9-17 this season against left-handed starters and also are only 14-25 this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are 10-5 this season in Sunday games and were 19-9 their last 28 home games prior to getting upset yesterday. Thanks to a huge pitching edge with Kershaw over McGuire, the Dodgers bounce right back in a big way today on Sunday! 38 of the Dodgers 52 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 37 of the Angels 47 losses this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET

This total opened up at a 12 but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and a wind shift that is taking place at Coors Field tonight very soon after first pitch in this game! The wind is likely to be out of the east at first pitch but is shifting from east to southeast very quickly and this means it will be blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Rockies right-hander German Marquez is off of back to back solid starts but those were on the road. Pitching at home has been a nightmare for him this season as Marquez is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and he allows an average of 2 baserunners per inning when on his home mound. It is no wonder that he is in trouble early and often there. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that has hammered for 21 hits in 12 and 2 / 3 innings over his last three starts versus Arizona. Included in those hits were 3 homers when he hosted the Dbacks just last month! More of the same expected here and the Rockies will also be crushing the ball tonight. Colorado will take advantage of Shelby Miller whom just hasn't been the same in his attempt to return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander has gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his 3 starts since his return. Also, his history versus the Rockies is not a good sign for him in terms of what to expect tonight. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 6.30 ERA versus Colorado. Most recently he has allowed 13 earned runs on 20 hits in just 11 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. This match-up truly has "slug-fest" written all "over" it and the over is 18-7 in Diamondbacks road games this season where Arizona's money line ranges from -125 to +125. We look for the over to improve to 10-4 in Arizona's Wednesday games this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET

The Red Sox have already scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series. Overall they've scored 10 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 games. The over is 5-2 in Boston's last 7 games and now they get to take on a rookie right-hander, Heath Fillmyer, making his first ever MLB start. The 24-year old has good numbers so far with the Royals but he has made just 3 relief appearances out of the bullpen. There is a big difference between coming out of the bullpen and making your first ever MLB start against one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox sticks are red hot right now and note that Fillmyer's AAA stats this season are not impressive at all. In the minors this season Fillmyer made 13 starts and compiled a 5.75 ERA as opponents hit .303 against him! This is a tough assigment for the rookie and, after a likely early Fillmyer exit in this one, the American League's worst bullpen (5.28 ERA) will get called upon to get hammered. Just as they have been crushed in each of the first two games, the Kansas City bullpen gives it up again Sunday afternoon. While Boston's lineup should definitely stay red hot here, look for the Royals lineup to join the party too! KC's hitters will be taking on Rick Porcello. Though the veteran right-hander has solid numbers this season, he has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Also, in Porcello's last 3 starts versus the Royals (including 2 here at Kauffman Stadium), he has compiled a 7.41 ERA and allowed 5 homers in 17 innings. He particularly struggled at Kansas City with 10 earned runs allowed in 10 innings! The over is 4-1 in Kansas City's last 5 games. Also, the Royals are a long-term 56-33 to the over (including 8-1 in recent seasons) when they are a home dog of +175 or more. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in early afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Atlanta Braves Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

The Braves have lost back to back road games but they were in the Bronx facing the Yankees. Prior to these back to back losses Atlanta was on a fantastic 22-11 (67%) run their last 33 road games. It is no "accident" that they're leading the National League East division. They hold a big edge in this match-up with Milwaukee because Braves southpaw Max Fried is likely to handcuff the Brewers. Milwaukee is hitting a paltry .222 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 29th out of 30 in the majors! Fried enters this start having allowed just 1 earned run on 8 hits while striking out 17 in his two starts spanning 11 and 2 / 3 innings this season. The Brewers are a fantastic 43-26 against right-handed starters this season BUT they have a losing record versus southpaws. The fact that Milwaukee hasn't faced many left-handed starters recently also will be a detriment to the lineup here as they'll be trying to get locked in on a lefty that has been piling up strikeouts. As for the Brewers starting pitcher tonight it will be Jhoulys Chacin getting the call. Milwaukee has lost each of his last 3 starts overall. Chacin has given up 5 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts at Miller Park. Overall at home in his last 3 starts the right-hander has compiled an ugly 7.02 ERA. He is facing a Braves team that is the #1 hitting team on the road in the National League. Atlanta's .266 batting average and .452 slugging percentage ranks them at the very TOP in both categories! While the Brewers are not familiar with Fried, the Braves faced Chacin last season in two starts. Although the 4.50 ERA is not particularly poor it is certainly not great and Chacin's 1.67 WHIP in those two outings is particularly concerning. The way the Braves have been hitting on the road this season (much better than last year when he faced them) this is a tough match-up for Chacin. Atlanta is 24-11 this season when off of a loss and Atlanta is also a perfect 7-0 this season in Thursday games. Bet Atlanta on the money line for a TOP PLAY in evening action Thursday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game was a low-scoring battle as the Blue Jays held on for the 3-2 win. After that pitchers duel many will be looking for a similar result Saturday but the key to the outcome in this one is a pitching match-up that is conducive to big runs! Toronto is 5-1-1 to the over in Sam Gaviglio's 7 starts this season. The Jays right-hander has a 7.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has averaged only 4 innings per start in these outings. The Tigers counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Matt Boyd gets the call for Detroit here. The southpaw has been roughed up to the tune of 11 earned runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Boyd also will feel the pressure of going against his former team. He did face the Blue Jays earlier this season and allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings but that start was at Comerica Park. When he has actually pitched in Toronto, check out these numbers in his career starts at the Rogers Centre. As a member of the Jays in 2015 he went 0-2 with a 14.85 ERA in his two starts there. Since leaving Toronto and going to Detroit, as a member of the Tigers Boyd has allowed 6 earned runs in 11 innings at Rogers Centre. He has walked 8 in those 11 innings and, just as when he was also a member of the Blue Jays, he just does not appear comfortable on the mound in Toronto. You can see why we are predicting both starters to struggle badly here! Also supporting this play: the Jays are 20-11 to the over in day games this season. Also, as home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season, the Blue Jays are 5-2 to the over. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

This is a very fair price to have Aaron Nola on the mound and to fade a Nationals team off of back to back shutout losses as their struggles at the plate continue. The Phillies are a perfect 7-0 in Nola's home starts this season and he has a 6-0 mark with a 1.86 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia's ace right-hander also has a solid 3.12 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nats. Washington will counter tonight with a struggling Tanner Roark. The Nationals right-hander is winless with an 8.16 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. That included his most recent start versus the Phillies and that continued another trend for Roark. That trend is that he struggles badly versus Philadelphia. Roark is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Phillies. In addition to the pitching edge and home field edge here, Philadelphia has also been the hotter team at the plate. The Nationals have averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in their last 11 games! The Phillies have averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Phils are a stellar 10-4 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Washington has the "benefit" of an off-day yesterday but they have a losing record in that situation this season and that includes 3 straight losses when they are playing a game after an off day! The Nationals enter this series having lost 11 of their last 15 games. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 16 games and we look for them to improve to 8-0 this season in Nola's home starts! Nola and the Phillies roll in this one! Bet Philadelphia on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET

Sam Gaviglio has struggled on the road since coming up to the majors. In his 8 road starts at the MLB level he has allowed 14 homers! Last year with the Mariners Gaviglio compiled a 5.58 ERA on the road. This season with the Blue Jays, Gaviglio has compiled a 7.05 ERA on the road. All 3 of his road starts this season have gone over the total and we fully expect another one here. The Blue Jays right-hander enters this start in poor current form as he has given up 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in the 7 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Angels have plenty of slugging power and the ball carries better in day games in Anaheim and the weather forecast looks favorable for the hitters in this one. The Blue Jays are 18-11 to the over in day games this season and the over is 7-3 in Toronto's Sunday games this year. Although Los Angeles has recorded back to back unders they previously had gone 10 straight games with an under! The fact that a converted reliever, Felix Pena, is making just his 2nd career start is another key factor with this play. Pena has a 5.04 ERA at the MLB level in his 39 career appearances and only 1 of those was a start. That was against the Cardinals earlier this week and Pena hit a batter and walked 3 in his 4 innings of work. He has been hit at a .313 clip this this season by left-handed bats and he'll see a good number of those in facing the Blue Jays this afternoon. Also, Pena is unlikely to work deep into this game (only went 4 innings in his first start) and the Angels bullpen (and Jays bullpen for that matter) both rank in the bottom third of the majors in terms of batting average against. Last night's big 3-run homer for Toronto with two outs in the top of the 9th was a big momentum-building hit for the Blue Jays heading into Sunday's series finale. The Jays stay hot at the plate here but the Angels also should enjoy a huge day as Gaviglio's long-term road struggles continue. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET

This is a very fair price to have David Price on the mound and the Red Sox looking to bounce back off of a loss yesterday. Boston lost 6-2 yesterday but the Twins scored those 6 runs on just 5 hits. As for the Red Sox, they were done in by leaving 11 men on base! That sets this one up perfectly as a bounce back spot for Boston. The Red Sox are 7-0 in the last 7 starts that Price has made. The Boston southpaw has a 2.64 ERA during this 7-0 run in his starts. Also, Price is 10-3 in the 16 starts he has made against Minnesota in his career. The Twins Lance Lynn is 0-2 in the 4 starts he has made against Boston in his career. The Red Sox are 6-2 in Price's 8 road starts this season. Minnesota is just 2-4 in the 6 homes starts Lynn has made this season. Though the Twins beat a lefty yesterday they are facing a very tough lefty on Wednesday and Minny had previously lost 6 of their last 7 games when facing a left-handed starter! The Red Sox are 10-2 this season when they are on the road and the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, while the Twins are 2-6 their last 8 versus left-handed starters (that includes yesterday's win), Boston is a fantastic 41-16 versus right-handed starters this season. The Red Sox are also 12-5 their last 17 when off of a loss. One final crucial note here is that Minnesota has a .362 slugging percentage versus left-hand pitching this season and that ranks them dead last in the American League. Price and the Sox roll in this one! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the money line for a TOP PLAY in evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

With yesterday's game going over the total, the Angels have not an under in any of their last 6 games as Los Angeles has gone 5-0-1 to the over. Is a perfect 5-0 run to the over for the A's after the 6-4 win Saturday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be near 70 degrees in Oakland and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip at Oakland Coliseum. The Angels Andrew Heaney had a good start versus the A's last season but that was at home. This start is on the road and Heaney has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two road starts. The LA southpaw is winless on the season in his starts away from home and has produced a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. The Athletics will have Daniel Mengden on the mound and that should lead to plenty of runs for the road team in this one. The A's right-hander is 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA in his two career starts versus the Angels and that includes a start earlier this season. Like Heaney, Mengden enters this start in poor current form as he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts even though he didn't last 5 innings in either start! Mengden allowed 6 homers in those two starts and Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 homers! With the trending of these two lineups as well as these two starting pitchers, we're happy to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Rays have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Jays have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games overall and in 4 of their last 5 road games. What is the significance in this? Getting each team to 4 runs in this game means we have a guaranteed winner as the game has to finish with a least 9 runs. This total opened up at an 8 and we would be surprised to see it climb any higher than an 8.5 as the day goes on. Either way, this situation demands our highest rating. Jaime Garcia is coming off of a strong start for the Blue Jays but that is just the 2nd quality start he has had in his past 10 starts and that outing was at home. On the road this season Garcia has gone 1-3 with an ugly 8.20 ERA. Tampa Bay has gone 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games and the Rays have averaged 9.2 hits per game their last 5 games. Toronto is 19-9-3 to the over this season. The Blue Jays, although they were held to 4 runs last night, have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 5 games. Ryne Stanek gets the start for the Rays which means this will be a bullpen day for the Rays because he has averaged only 1 inning per outing this season. In fact, in his 34 MLB appearances (3 starts) he has never pitching more than 2 innings in an outing. Tampa Bay's "bullpen strategy" started off going quite well but the effectiveness has faded in recent weeks and they're likely going to need 7 innings of bullpen in this game. Prior to yesterday's win, the Rays had lost 9 of their 10 prior games. Tampa Bay has allowed nearly 5 runs per game their last 11 games and the Blue Jays have seen plenty of the Rays relievers this season as the TB starters have averaged only 5 innings per start in the 4 games between these clubs this season. That repetition pays off here and the Toronto over improves to 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them.  It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*.  BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game.  The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight  at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 ET

With yesterday's win the Mariners have now won 5 straight games and 14 of their last 17. While Seattle has been red hot, Houston has actually been ice cold. The Astros have lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 10. Of course as the defending champs Houston gets plenty of respect from the odds makers and the betting markets. That is why the Astros are nearly a -200 favorite on the money line in this one. Though we expect the Mariners to get the upset win here as a big dog, we feel the best value is with the run line (at a nearly pick'em price) as that puts Seattle money in your pocket tonight even if they lose a pitchers duel. The Mariners are starting Wade LeBlanc and this is his 2nd stint with Seattle as he was also with them in 2016. He has enjoyed great success as a Mariner as Seattle has gone 12-2 in his 14 starts! This season LeBlanc has a 1.72 ERA in his 6 starts including a 0.82 ERA in his road starts on the year. The Astros are starting Lance McCullers and he has some solid numbers on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, this will be the 2nd time this season that the Mariners will be facing him and that is a major key here. The other two times this season that McCullers has made a 2nd start versus a team he has struggled badly. The combined numbers are 9 earned runs on 11 hits and 6 walks in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings. So that is 17 baserunners in about 9 innings of work while compiling an 8.68 ERA. With the way the Mariners are rolling (and the Astros certainly are not) there is fantastic line value here given the pitching match-up. Bet Seattle on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 215, Cleveland @ Golden State, Sunday at 8 PM ET

We cashed with the OVER in game 1 of this series but it took overtime to get there.  After watching game 1, tonight we’re siding with the UNDER.  The two teams combined to shoot a very solid 47% in game 1 yet the game had to go to OT to cash the OVER.  LeBron is playing exceptionally well but can we expect him to get to 50+ again and miss only 13 of 32 shots again tonight?  The odds on that happening are not very good.  Even with his fantastic effort and 51 points, again, if it doesn’t go to OT it stays UNDER.  As good as Golden State can be offensively, it’s actually been their defense that has carried them in these playoffs.  They held Houston, one of the top scoring offenses in the NBA, to 92, 94, 86, and 92 points the final four games of the Western Conference Finals.  In their 18 playoff games, the Warriors have allowed more than 106 points just 3 times (in regulation).  11 of those 18 have gone UNDER the total.  Steve Kerr was not happy with the way this team played defense in game 1 and you can bet that was stressed heading into this match up.  Expect GS to play very well on the defensive end tonight.  Cleveland’s defense was poor during the regular season but they’ve actually played quite well on that end of the court in the post season.  Their final 3 games vs Boston heading into the NBA Finals they limited the Celtics to 96, 99, and 79 points.  They’ve limited their opponents to 110 points or fewer in 18 of their 19 playoff games (in regulation).  We look for Cleveland to try and slow this pace tonight which gives them the best chance of pulling off the upset.  Both defenses will play better tonight and we like the UNDER in this game. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET

Neither one of these lineups is known for being an offensive juggernaut but sharp money has moved this total from an 8 to an 8.5 this morning. The fact is that there are a number of key factors favoring the over. The Reds Matt Harvey is off of a poor start at Colorado and that is the last thing he needed. His confidence has been shaky already as it is because he had a poor finish to his time in New York with the Mets and now, since coming to the Reds, he has allowed 7 earned runs on 16 hits (including 3 homers) in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Padres did struggle in yesterday's 7-2 loss but they entered the game having won 3 straight games and averaging 6.7 runs per game during this 3-0 run in home games. The over is 4-1 in 5 games on this San Diego homestand and another one looks likely here. Eric Lauer gets the starts for the Padres and the Reds last two games against southpaw starters saw Cincinnati amass 13 runs on 23 hits. Lauer enters this start off of another rough home outing versus Miami. He now has a 9.29 ERA in home games this season and the left-hander has a 7.67 ERA overall on the year. The over is a long-term 75-48 when a Reds game has a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 8-2 this season when Cincinnati is on the road in game with a money line between -125 and +125. San Diego is a long-term 31-19 to the over in June games (nice weather in San Diego today) and the Padres are 6-2 to the over this season in their Saturday games. We're taking advantage of the low total that was set in this game as both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle in this one. Bet the OVER in San Diego for a TOP PLAY in evening action Saturday.

We will play on 10-Star OVER 215 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Thursday, May 31st – Cleveland looked better defensively in the Eastern Conference Playoffs but the fact of the matter is they played two average offenses in the Pacers and Celtics. Now they face one of the best offensive units in the NBA which averaged 1.137 point per possession in the regular season, 3rd best in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 109PPG in the post season and that came against three top 14 defensive efficiency units, two of which, Houston and San Antonio, were top 6. Now Golden State goes up against a Cavs D that was 29th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.120PPP. Cleveland had some lower scoring games against the Pacers and Celtics but those are two of the 8 slowest paced teams in the NBA. Against a similar team to the Warriors, Toronto, the Cavs allowed 112, 110, 103 and 93 points with three of the four games ending with 221 or more total points. After a couple low scoring grinders against the Rockets we expect the Warriors offense to explode tonight in Game 1. Golden State home games averaged 217 total points this season while Cleveland road contests averaged 216PPG. Based on league averages, pace of play, eFG percentages, etc…etc…this game should end with 220 or more points. The Warriors have scored 116 or more points against the Cavs in 6 of the last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER the total.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Capitals Money Line (+) @ Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

You have to go all the way back to early March - a span of nearly THREE months - to find the last time Washington has suffered consecutive losses on the road. Since then, the Capitals are 4-0 when on the road and off of a loss in their most recent road game. The Caps were completely ripped off in the Game 1 loss. Yes each team had some "breaks" go their way in the game but NONE were bigger than what happened in the 3rd period. The Capitals had silenced the crowd and taken the lead 4-3 (wasn't their first lead of the game either) and then, right in front of Washington's goal the Golden Knights Ryan Reaves gave a textbook cross-check (the type called for a penalty without question 100% of the time) to his defender and then had a wide open point blank shot on goal to tie the game. So in this case, instead of the Capitals being up 4-3 and going on the power play with a strong chance to take a 5-3 lead, the momentum and flow of the game was changed completely by Vegas tying the game on a goal that NEVER should have counted. No team has had as much luck in the post-season as the Golden Knights and, at the same time, they certainly have earned the respect they've been given. But, the point is, there is only so many ridiculous breaks a team can get and Vegas is VERY over-priced here with the hungry Capitals, led by a very determined Alexander Ovechkin, playing with tremendous grit and determination after the Golden Knights stole (literally) the Game 1 win. Situations just don't get much better than this, especially with a strong road team that is a sizable dog, and the Capitals should improve to 5-1 in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Also note that this is only the 5th time this season that the Golden Knights have had a winning streak of 5 or more games. 3 of the first 4 times (5 straight wins) ended with a loss in game #6 of the streak. This one makes it 4 out of 5 as once again a Vegas winning streak ends at 5 games. The physical Caps (out-hit the Golden Knights 38-25 in Game 1) once again bring a huge effort in Game 2 but this time they get the win they deserve. Bet Washington on the money line for a Top Play in evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (ML) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The home team has clearly had the big advantage in this series and have been the better team in every game.  Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-25 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-19 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 10-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes three wins over this same Cavs team by 25, 13 and 13 points respectively. As far as home teams in elimination games in the NBA, going back to 2005, the home team has won over 70% of the time. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. Cleveland has shot under 42% in two of the three games in Boston which is understandable considering the Celtics had the 2nd best shooting percentage D in the NBA this season. Boston was also one of the best in the league when it came to defensive efficiency ratings. The public is all over LeBron and the Cavs which makes sense but the money is all over Boston. Even though LBJ will get every call to man in this game we like the resolve of the young Celtics and expect a win by the home team. 

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 212.5 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, Game 6, 9PM ET - With the number creeping this low here we have to step in with a VALUE Over bet on Game 6. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. In Games 4 & 5 these two teams shot horribly and the games ended with just 187 and 192 Total points. The big difference for this game could be injuries as the Warriors could get Andre Iguodala back for this game and the plus/minus differential with him on the floor for GST is drastic. Houston will more than likely be without Chris Paul for this game which isn’t as big a deal offensively but is defensively. Paul has been outstanding defensively in this series. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the eight meetings this season. The value on this number is too good to ignore. In Game 4 at home these two teams had a total of 224. The Warriors have had 14 home games this season where Vegas posted a Total of 215 or lower on them and in nine of those the Warriors had a key player out. Don’t forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year was 212PPG and this game features the two best offenses in the league. BET OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET

It is amazing what one game can do for the confidence of lineup and Arizona, a solid team overall, will have their swagger back today. After enduring a stretch of recent struggles, the Diamondbacks got back on track with a huge night at the plate yesterday. Arizona won 7-1 yesterday and now, in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out, look for another over today. The A's Daniel Mengden is off of a strong start in the books and so too is Clay Buchholz. However the Diamondbacks right-hander was not overly impressive at AAA Reno before being called up to face the Mets. Buchholz was fortunate in that many of his outs were through the air including well-hit balls but he escaped damage. Mengden had a similar outing in his most recent start. Many outs through the air and he entered that start having allowed a .265 batting average to hitters on the season. In other words, Mengden's results (especially including the recent lack of strikeouts) have been quite fortunate. Look for the Diamondbacks to be on the attack early and often in this one after yesterday's explosion at the plate. As for the A's, they'll bounce back at the plate after scoring just 1 run yesterday. Buchholz's "stuff" is simply not that sharp and the Oakland lineup will be much tougher against him than the struggling Mets lineup was. The Athletics have a .428 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching this season and that has them tied for 3rd in the majors! Mengden has made 10 starts this season and only 3 have resulted in an under. The very first totals posted on this game were 9s and it quickly dropped to 8s across the board. It has now settled in at 8.5 in all books but the odds makers had it right in the first place and we see at least 9 runs in this one and, more likely, double digits being scored! Look for the over to move to 16-9 in Arizona's road games this season and 6-2 in A's Saturday games on the year! Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston.  

 ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series.  Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Angels money line (-) over Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7 PM ET

The Angels lost 5-3 on the scoreboard yesterday but they won 3-1 in terms of earned runs. A very unusual play completely changed the complexion of yesterday's game. The Blue Jays got a 5-run first inning yesterday but 4 of the runs were unearned and it was completely improbable that it happened. Angels outfielder Chris Young made an error on a line drive in the first inning and that snapped the longest error-less streak in the majors as he had gone 236 games without an error! Off of a "fluke win" yesterday for Toronto this game is set up as the perfect spot to fade them. The Angels are still 14-5 on the road this season and they are a perfect 4-0 this season when on the road off of a loss in their most recent road game. In other words, Los Angeles has not lost consecutive road games yet this season and we don't expect that to change here. The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez struggled last season with blister issues and, as a result, he still has not been able to get his command back this season. He has walked 11 in less than 13 innings of work in his last 3 starts. Sanchez has a 2.05 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Angels Tyler Skaggs is a perfect 3-0 in his 4 road starts this season and the southpaw has a 1.14 ERA away from home on the year. The Blue Jays (.228 batting average) are one of the worst hitting teams in the American League against left-handed pitching. We wouldn't be surprised to see the line climb on the Angels here but they are a perfect 8-0 this season in road games with a money line range between -125 and -175 so don't be afraid to "lay it" here! Dating all the way back to April 19th - a span of 5 weeks - the Blue Jays have only 1 winning streak (3 games). As you can see, back to back wins have been virtually non-existent for Toronto and, coming off of a win yesterday, the Jays again fall flat here. Fantastic small fave money line value available in this one. Bet the Los Angeles Angels on the money line in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 224 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - With the number creeping a little lower here we'll step in with an Over bet on Game 4. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points. Then in Game 3 the Warriors exploded for 126 themselves but the Rockets managed just 85. In Game 3 the Rockets shot just 39.5% overall from the field and 32.4% from beyond the arc. Expect the Rockets to get back to somewhere in the 46% or 51% they shot in the first two games of the series which is much closer to their season average of 46%. The Rockets attempted nearly 42 three's per game in the regular season and will get their attempts up here in this do-or-die situation. The Warriors had the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA this season at 1.137 points per possession. Houston had the #1 ranked OEFF at 1.147PPP. Golden State was the 5th fastest paced team in league this season and the Rockets were 13th which means both prefer to play fast. These two teams have scored 224 or more points in 5 of the six meetings this season. Expect more of the same tonight. BET OVER!

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Lightning came into the post-season as the number one seed in the East. They began by steam-rolling the Devils in the first round in 5 games. Then, after losing Game 1 to Boston in the second round, they responded by winning 4 straight over the Bruins. Surprisingly they next lost two straight games to the Capitals in Tampa Bay but they've responded by winning 3 straight games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is back to playing phenomenally well between the pipes. The Capitals are feeling all the pressure in the world after losing 3 straight games and, hence, we get to take the loose and relaxed Bolts as an underdog on the road in Game 6 and fade a Washington team well-known for playoff collapses. Not only has TB won 5 straight road games, 4 of the 5 victories came by a margin of 2 or more goals. The Capitals are just 4-7 in their last 11 home games and the Lightning also have been the much better team on the power play of late. The Bolts are skating very well right now and they have taken over the game flow in this series in the last 3 games with the Capitals only playing well in intermittent, short spurts. We look for the Lightning to improve to 6-1 in this post-season when they enter a game with a lead in the series. All signs point to the Capitals post-season coming to an end tonight as road dominance throughout their post-season resumes here! The Caps wrap up their season with the road team finishing with a 13-5 record in their 18 playoff games in 2018! Bet Tampa Bay on the money line in evening action Monday.

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close.

ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET -  The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET

Vincent Velasquez is off of a fantastic start for Philadelphia in his most recent outing as he bounced back from early inning struggles and ended up registering 12 strikeouts in the game. However, throughout his tenure with the Phillies Velasquez has been known for his inconsistency as he often follows up a strong start with a poor one. This is particularly true when he is off of a huge strikeout game. Keep in mind, a big game with K's also means a lot of pitches thrown and, sure enough, Velasquez threw more than 100 pitches in what became the 5th start of his MLB career in which he struck out 10 or more batters. That is noteworthy because he has never produced a quality start in his career when off of a game where he registered double digits in strikeouts. The numbers for Velasquez in those 4 starts are as follows: 19 and 1 / 3 innings, 18 runs, 15 earned runs, 26 hits, 8 homers! That is an average of 2 homers per start even though his average start was less than 5 innings. Also, the hard-throwing righty has compiled a 6.98 ERA in those 4 starts. We expect similar results today but we do expect Velasquez to get plenty of run support as his Phillies teammates take advantage of facing Luke Weaver. The Cardinals right-hander is off of a solid start in his most recent outing but he faced the weak Padres lineup. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has been on a strong surge and Weaver, prior to shutting down San Diego over 5 innings, had compiled a 9.00 ERA in his 4 prior starts. He allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 4 starts. Now Weaver faces a Philly team that has won 6 of their last 7 and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game in those 6 wins. That has this one set to be a back and forth slugfest with temperatures in the mid-80s for this one as an added bonus. Bet the OVER in St Louis for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7  less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers.  Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss.  

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 203.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics, Tuesday 8:30PM ET Game 2 - First off I want to start by saying this: I am not, nor ever been a conspiracy theory guy when it comes to NBA games, but tonight I'm fairly certain LeBron is going to get a ton of calls in his favor. I expect James to make a concentrated effort to get to the hole in Game 2 and he'll be rewarded with calls that he didn't get in Game 1. In the opener the Cavs defense was exactly what we expected it to be but we didn't see their offense struggling to top 20 points in three of the four quarters. The Cavs shot just 36% as a team and were just 4 of 26 from beyond the arc (15.4%). That's significantly lower than their season averages of 36.8% overall on 32 attempts per game which are both top 8 in the NBA. Cleveland put up just 83 points in the opener but had they shot their season averages they would have scored 24 more points from beyond the 3-point line alone. That's enough points to push this game Over the total. When the Cavs played on the road this year those games averaged 219PPG. When Boston was at home those contests averaged 205PPG. We see Boston putting up great offensive numbers again tonight as the Cavs defense (29th in DEFF) hasn't changed. Don't forget the average field goal attempts per game in the NBA this season was 172 and the average points scored was just under 213PPG. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 170 FG attempts so the pace of play was there, but the Cavs just couldn't make shots. That  changes tonight and while I won't bet a bad line tonight and trust Cleveland, I will invest in the OVER.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

The Indians are facing southpaw Francisco Liriano in this one. The #1 offense in the American League versus left-handed pitching so far this season is Cleveland with a .445 slugging percentage! The last two times Liriano has faced the Tribe he has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings. Also, in those two starts he walked 6 while striking out just 4. The Indians are 9-3-1 to the over this month. Even with yesterday's 6-3 loss, Cleveland is scoring an average of 7 runs per game this month. The Tigers are 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 games and have averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. In the month of May Detroit has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors with a .285 batting average and Cleveland is right behind them with a .282 mark. On Tuesday, the Tigers will take advantage of facing a struggling Josh Tomlin. The Indians right-hander has allowed 9 homers in his last 3 starts! Allowing an average of 3 homers per start certainly gets a pitcher into trouble in very little time. Not only are both starting pitchers likely to struggle here but the bullpen numbers offer further support for the expectation of a slugfest here. The Tigers pen is 6-12 with a 4.45 ERA and has blown 10 of 19 save opportunities! The Indians pen is 3-10 with a 5.45 ERA. We expect runs early, often, and throughout this game and you can see why! Bet the OVER in Detroit for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (Moneyline bet) -110 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - Tough to go against the Champs in any setting, especially considering they are not underdogs very often, but we'll make an exception tonight in Game 1.  We've made a prediction at the start of the Playoffs that Houston would win it all this year and for them to do that they must win Game 1 at home. The Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best home defensive efficiency numbers. The addition of Chris Paul gives them a another super-star caliber player that can take over a game if James Harden struggles as he did a year ago in big playoff moments. Capela has been a defensive force in the playoffs and Eric Gordon scored 20PPG during the regular season versus the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors are loaded and have incredible road numbers and the Hamptons 5 lineup but this is the one spot to fade them. Houston is 25-2 SU their last 27 at home while Golden State is just 10-11 SU their last 21 on the road, 2-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 1 at home! 

ASA  PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Vegas Golden Knights, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

You saw it last night and you can expect a repeat tonight. Much was made about the Capitals coming off of the more grueling series to reach the Eastern Conference semi-finals and the fact that Tampa Bay had more rest. The Caps two series had been decided in 6 games apiece while the Bolts two series had been decided in 5 games apiece. As we've discussed in the past, more often than not in hockey, playing more games is even better. It keeps timing top-notch and keeps teams crisp in terms of their passing and puck handling. Tonight we have a similar situation to last night's game. The Golden Knights swept their 1st round series and the Jets won theirs in 5 games. Vegas then took their 2nd round series in 6 games while Winnipeg got stretched to 7 games. However, just like last night, the perceived advantage for the Golden Knights will not be there. The fact is that Vegas hasn't played since Sunday and too much time off is not a good thing! Look for their timing to be a little off and look for the Jets, particularly because they are on home ice, to jump on them from the outset. Yes, Winnipeg just played on Thursday but they did have two days off prior to that. This will be just the 2nd game for the Jets since Monday. That type of rest is ideal...the amount of rest the Golden Knights have had is not...it is too much! Also, the last time that Winnipeg was on home ice as a rare embarrassing home loss. The Jets were the best home ice team in the NHL this season. You can bank on a response for the hockey-crazed home fans in Winnipeg! The Jets loss on home ice Monday was just their 11th this season and it was just the 3rd time this season that they've lost 2 consecutive home games. They have NEVER lost 3 consecutive games on home ice all season! Also, even in these RARE back to back losses (followed 13 straight wins), the Jets outshot their opponent in both games. Bet Winnipeg on the money line in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 10 PM ET

This is a great value situation as odds makers opened up this total at an 8.5 but it has dropped to a 7.5 as of mid-day Friday. This is NOT a National League game. This is NOT a game involving two stellar starting pitchers. While the Angels Tyler Skaggs has pitched better recently, he still is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in his home starts this season. Taking a look at the Twins Lance Lynn, he allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings against the White Sox in his most recent start but Chicago did notch 8 hits against him. Lynn has a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the season as both hits and walks (too many) have been an issue for the Minnesota right-hander. As for the two bullpens in this match-up, the Angels numbers rank well in some aspects but the 20 homers the relievers have allowed ranks as the 3rd worst in the majors. Of course that is also why the Angels bullpen ranks in the lower third of the majors for slugging percentage allowed. Which bullpen is the worst for homers allowed? Right on cue it is the Twins as they've allowed 23 and Minnesota's relievers combined 5.27 ERA also ranks as one of the worst marks in the majors. The over is 14-5-1 in Minnesota's last 20 games. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when the Twins are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 and the over is 7-2 this season when the Angels are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Bet the OVER in Minnesota for a TOP PLAY in late night action Friday.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk.  Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win!

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 207.5 Game 5 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Tuesday, 8PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. Game 2 saw these two teams combined for 224 (nice over win for us). Games 3 & 4 finished with 205 and 187 total points. After a very low scoring Game 4, with poor shooting by both teams expect a return to the normal tonight. In the eight meetings this season between these two teams, the Rockets have scored 137, 112, 120, 96, 110, 108, 113 and 100 points. In Game 4 the Rockets shot just 42% overall and 26% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages of 45.8% and 36.2%. The Jazz shot even worse in G4 as they hit just 38.6% from the field and 24% from the 3-point line. Three of the four games in this series have stayed Under the Total but they've been near the league average for pace of play which should equate to 213 Total points. The Jazz road games has averaged 207 total per game in the regular season while the Rockets home games have averaged 218 Total points. The Over has now cashed in 5 of the last six meetings on this court.  Bet OVER! 

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 216 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Saturday, 8:35PM ET - Neither team shot especially well in Game 1 yet they still managed 210 total points in regulation. At the half of that game they had 117 which put them on pace for 234 total points. They were still scoring in the 3rd when they combined for 52 points. In the fourth though Toronto missed 11 straight field goals to end the game. In Game 2 LeBron went off in the 3rd quarter which propelled the Cavs to a 128-110 win.  Both teams shot ridiculously well at 60% for Cleveland and 54% for Toronto and there are indicators that success could continue here. The Over has now cashed in 4 of the last five meetings (232, 261, 218, 225, 238) and the only game that stayed Under, ended with 218 total points (Total was 223). The Raptors are completely mind-(fill in blank) by the Cavs and have no answer for LeBron. James will continue to bully the Raptors and it will only get worse in Cleveland before it gets any better. Expect a high scoring game here. Toronto's offense was 2nd in terms of offensive efficiency this season during the regular season and face a Cavs defense that was 29th in defensive efficiency. 

PLAY ON: OVER 208.5 Game 3 Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz , Fri, 10:30PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. Game 2 saw these two teams combined for 224 (nice over win for us). In the six meetings this season between these two teams, the Rockets have scored 137, 112, 120, 96, 110 and 108. After a horrible shooting performance in Game 2 you can bet the Rockets find a rhythm here. Houston shot just 40% overall and a pitiful 27% from beyond the arc in the last game. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages of 45.8% and 36.2%. Granted the Jazz shot better than their season averages but it's safe to say we could see a similar performance back at home in Game 3. In the playoffs the Jazz and their opponents have scored more than tonight's total in 6 of eight games. Utah had the best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season at 1.039 points per possession. In the playoffs they are giving up 1.050PPP. Houston was the #1 offensive efficiency offense in the NBA this season at 1.147PPP and they're even better yet in the post-season at 1.158PPP. In the series against OKC the Jazz totaled 217 and 209 total points in the first two home games of that series.  Houston went to Minnesota and they combined for 226 and 219 total points. In this situation the bet here is OVER! 

PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG.  Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG.  The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points! 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Nashville Predators, Thursday at 9:35 PM ET

Nashville got the Game 2 win on home ice and with the Jets big response in their Game 3 win in Winnipeg, the home team has now won 9 of the last 12 meetings between these division rivals. Certainly that trend should continue here as the Jets offensive production on home ice is tops in the NHL as they average 4 goals per game. This will be just the 3rd home game for Winnipeg since April 13th so, just like Tuesday, it will again be an incredibly hyped up hockey-crazed crowd in Canada for this one. Most of the entire nation is pulling for the Jets now that the Maple Leafs were eliminated from the post-season and Winnipeg is already well known for an incredible home ice edge. Today is May 3rd and the Jets haven't lost a home game since February! Winnipeg's run during this stretch is 13 STRAIGHT WINS coming by a combined score of 54-27. That is an average score of 4-2 on home ice with not a single loss the past two months! Look for this strong trend for the Jets to continue here. The Predators are certainly a quality hockey club but they are only 4-5 in their last 9 road games and Winnipeg's home ice edge will once again prove to be too much here. The Jets were in a 3-0 hole Tuesday and still rallied back for the win! That is huge for Winnipeg as their confidence is sky high on home ice while it was a crushing blow to the Predators (and goalie Pekka Rinne's) confidence. Bet Winnipeg on the money line in evening action Thursday.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Game 2 - Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 8:35PM ET - We like the value with an OVER wager on Game 2. Philly was 4th during the regular season in pace of play at 99.8 possessions per game and have played faster yet in the post-season at 100.5 possessions per game. Philadelphia averaged 110PPG in the reg ssn and are at 114PPG in the PO's. The 76ers offensive efficiency numbers are better in the post season at 1.136 points per possession than they were in the regular season.  Boston has seen a drop in their defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they went from allowing 1.039 points per possession (reg ssn) to 1.086PPP in the playoffs. In Game 1 the 76ers went just 5 of 26 (19%) from beyond the arc which is clearly an aberration.  On the year the 76ers averaged 30 3-point attempts per game and made 37% of them. Twelve of the Sixers deep attempts were what we would consider 'wide open' too and they missed all of them. Yes, part of the equation is that Boston's defense was great, but the law of averages even out here which means more points for Philly. The 76ers underperformed its expected field-goal percentage based on shot location and defender proximity by a huge margin so look for better results here from them. Boston shot extremely well from beyond the arc but they were also the second best 3-point shooting team in the regular season behind only Golden State. The Over has now cashed in 70% or 7 of the last ten clashes in Boston. BET OVER!

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets, Weds, 8PM ET - Game 1 of this series finished with 206 total points as the Rockets won 110-96. In the three meetings this season between these two teams on this court, the Rockets have scored 110, 120 and 137 points. In the playoffs the Jazz and their opponents have scored more than tonight's total in 5 of seven games. Utah had the best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season at 1.039 points per possession. In the playoffs they are giving up 1.050PPP. Houston was the #1 offensive efficiency offense in the NBA this season at 1.147PPP and they're even better yet in the post-season at 1.158PPP. In home games this season the Rockets have scored 204 or more points in 35 of 45 games. The Rockets and their opponents averaged 218.2PPG this season at home. Utah and their foes averaged 206.9PPG this season when on the road. Utah will play better than they did in the opener and Houston is going to get to 114+. The bet here is OVER! 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Money Line (-) vs Nashville Predators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

Nashville got the Game 2 win on home ice and the home team has now won 8 of the last 11 meetings between these division rivals. Certainly that trend should continue here as the Jets are back on home ice off of a loss! Winnipeg's offensive production on home ice is tops in the NHL as they average 4 goals per game. On the season, in home games with an O/U set at 5.5 goals, the Jets won 26 of 30 games! This will be just the 2nd home game for Winnipeg since April 13th so you can't even imagine just how incredibly hyped up the hockey-crazed crowd will be in Canada for this one. Most of the entire nation is pulling for the Jets now that the Maple Leafs were eliminated from the post-season and Winnipeg is already well known for an incredible home ice edge. Today is May 1st and the Jets haven't lost a home game since February! Winnipeg's run during this stretch is 12 straight wins coming by a combined score of 47-23. That is an average score of 4-2 on home ice with not a single loss the past two months! Look for this strong trend for the Jets to continue here. The Predators are certainly a quality hockey club but they are only 4-4 in their last 8 road games and Winnipeg's home ice edge will prove to be too much here. Coming off of a loss, look for the Jets to respond. Only 3 times since Christmas have the Jets lost consecutive games! Bet Winnipeg on the money line in evening action Tuesday.

ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams  this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto.  The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1. 

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 205 Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - This Total number has dropped as many as 5-points as some Books from the opening line and we like the value with an OVER wager here. When these two teams faced off last in Beantown the oddsmakers posted a Total of 203 on that game which is slightly lower than tonight's number. We know what the young 76ers will want to do here and that's push the ball in transition, force the Celtics to play fast and wear out their starters. Philly was 4th during the regulars season in pace of play at 99.8 possessions per game and have played faster yet in the post-season at 100.5 possessions per game. Philadelphia averaged 110PPG in the reg ssn and are at 114PPG in the PO's. The 76ers offensive efficiency numbers are better in the post season at 1.136 points per possession than they were in the regular season. The Bucks had great success shooting the ball against Boston in the opening series which is alarming for Celtics supporters. Milwaukee shot 50% as a team against the C's defense that held opponents to just 44% during the regular season. That ties into Boston's drop in defensive efficiency numbers as they went from allowing 1.039 points per possession (reg ssn) to 1.086PPP in the playoffs. Season averages and statistics support a game in the 218 range here. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs.  Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG.  The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 4 PM ET

The Rangers Bartolo Colon certainly had been pitching much better than expected early this season. There are signs the wheels are about to come off of his surprising run though. In his most recent start, the 44 year old allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 6 innings of work and he struck out only 2. Now he is facing a Blue Jays team that has hit him quite well recently including 3 homers in his last two starts against them. Toronto has averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game in their last 6 home games. They lost yesterday's game 6-4 but did have 10 hits. They've been held below 4 runs only once in their last 6 home games. The Rangers should also enjoy success at the plate today. Texas has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 6 games and they also reached double digits in hits yesterday. The Rangers already faced Jaime Garcia earlier this month. Another look at Garcia within the same month should yield even better results. That start earlier in April versus Texas is part of a stretch in which the Blue Jays southpaw has allowed 4 homers while compiling a 5.75 ERA over his last 3 starts. The over is 4-2 in Rangers games versus left-handed starters this season. Also, Texas is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a win and 5-2 to the over in day games this season. The Rangers Saturday games are 3-1 to the over this season. Look for the over to go to 6-3 in Toronto's day games this season. The over is 6-2 the last 8 when the Blue Jays are off of a loss. More of the same expected in this afternoon match-up featuring two starting pitchers very likely to struggle! Bet the OVER in Toronto in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY  ON: Washington Wizards (ML) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - The situation dictates a play on the Wizard here as they return home off a loss and face elimination. With John Wall on the court the Wizards have been fantastic at home in the post season with a 10-1 SU run, 8-3 ATS. On the season the Wiz are 5-1 SU and ATS at home when coming off a double digit loss. Let's remind you this isn't a typical #1 vs #8 seed matchup in the first round as Washington was a much higher seed late in the season. The home team has now cashed in on 7 of the last eight meetings between these two teams. As we've stated in the past, the Raptors are a team built for winning in the regular season and have historically failed to live up to expectations in the playoffs. In the two previous games of this series the Wizard shot 55% and 46% overall from the field, 44% and 41% from 3. In Game #5 the Wiz shot a horrendous 41% overall and just 19% from beyond the arc. Things return to normal tonight in Washington and this series extends to a seventh game.