#235645/235646 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals – Venezuela vs Mexico, Wednesday at 9 ET - This one being played in Copa America action in the USA. Venezuela off a big 2-1 win and Mexico lost a key player to hamstring injury in prior match which will likely lead to Venezuela being more aggressive on the attack here. Venezuela has had two of last three matches finish as 2-1 finals. We like the value of this total at just 2 goals. Venezuela will be aggressive and they enter this match with confidence off a win. Mexico is favored here and has the ability to turn it on and bounce back here, even without a key player, as it will be a "next man up" mentality. Prior to an unimpressive 1-0 win over Jamaica, Mexico had scored an average of 2 goals a game last 18 games. They are a favorite here and that is no mistake either. We see each team scoring here, as that is probable based on the above, and that means excellent value with the low total here. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see another 2-1 or 2-2 type game here. We will take the over in this one.

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Astros have won 5 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 26 of 42 since their rough start to the season.  Now they are at home where they have won 7 of 9 games and they are hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-27 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 16 of 22 overall.  The Astros have 38 wins this season and 33 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first two games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 20 to 6.  The Rockies 51 losses this season have included 40 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Austin Gomber, is in dreadful current form.  Gomber has allowed 19 earned runs in 17.2 innings spanning his last 4 starts and 3 of the 4 outings were on the road so these numbers were not inflated because of Coors Field.  In fact, on the season, Gomber has been worse on the road than at home as he is 1-3 with a 5.05 ERA away from home.  The Astros Hunter Brown has been in top form of late while Gomber is winless with a 9.68 ERA in his 4 June outings!  Brown, on the other hand, has a 2.45 ERA in his last 9 starts spanning May and June!  Brown has dominated his last two starts with 0 walks and 15 strikeouts and only 1 earned run in 13 innings!  Brown and the Astros enter this game with confidence riding high and they are home.  The Rockies back on the road where they have struggled again all season including losses in 6 of last 9 games and they were outscored a combined 43 to 16 in the 6 losses.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the strong value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at a modest, yet reasonable, price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Lynx +6 at NY Liberty, 8 PM ET - The Liberty are clearly a contender this year and a solid team, but they also have some favorable statistics as a result of playing a weak schedule. In fact, the Liberty schedule is the second weakest in the entire W. They play in the Eastern Conference which isn’t as good as the West from top to bottom. They have three losses this season, two of which came against Western Conference opponents the Mercury and this same Lynx team. Minnesota is 13-3 SU on the season and have the best Net Rating in the WNBA, slightly ahead of this Liberty team, but again, the Lynx have faced the much tougher schedule. Minnesota has the #1 defense in the league and are 3rd in Offensive Net Rating. The Lynx have the best average point differential in the league at +10.6PPG, the Liberty are second at +9.0PPG. These two teams met in late May in Minnesota and the Lynx dominated the Liberty with an 84-67 win. We like Minnesota here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright.

#225525/225526 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – England vs Slovenia, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one being played in Euro 2024 action in Germany. England has been playing for 1-0 wins it seems in this tourney so far and we do not see that changing here. They have the talent edge but also continue to want to protect at the back and they know they must be careful with this Slovenia team able to surpass them with a win. Of course that would be a huge upset win if it happens but the point is that England wants to again manage the tempo here. England's last 3 games have included a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 win and 1-0 loss. More of the same here. Slovenia has had three straight 1-1 draws and 4 of their last 5 matches have totaled just 2 goals. We expect a similar result in this one. Given the current positioning in the table for these teams too, we look for a tight defensive-minded battle here. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see another 1-0 or 1-1 type match here. We will take the under in this one.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Freddy Peralta to the mound while Texas counters with Michael Lorenzen. The Brewers right-hander Peralta is off a great start in LA against the Angels but he had a rare poor outing in his most recent home start.  Prior to that Peralta was in fine form at home and he wants to make up for that rare unusually rough home start with a gem here versus the defending world champs.  Texas has definitely taken a step back this season and the Rangers are in for a tough one versus Peralta here.  Prior to the bad home start, Peralta had allowed only 12 earned runs in his 5 home starts this season and struck out 40 in 27.2 innings here at home in Milwaukee.  The Brewers bats will face a downward-trending Lorenzen here. The Rangers right-hander has managed to limit the damage in recent starts but the signs are there that he is regressing.  Lorenzen has had nearly as many homers allowed (5) as strikeouts registered (6) in his last 3 starts.  That is not a good sign and we look for the Brewers lineup to take advantage. Milwaukee has scored about 5 runs per game over their last 8 games and wins in 10 of last 12 home games with solid offensive production at home during this dozen-game stretch will add to the confidence level at the plate in this one.  All the edges point to the home team and another multi-run margin win here (10 of last 12 Brewers home wins by 2+ runs!). We are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

ASA top play on Chicago Sky -120 vs. Indiana Fever, 4 PM ET - This game will be historic in terms of TV viewers and the most watched game in WNBA history. This is a great rivalry already featuring Angel Reese and Caitlyn Clark. The Sky will try to intimidate Clark and the Fever with their dirty antics, but it hasn’t worked yet as Indiana has won both meetings. Clark is one of the most skilled players in the league, averaging 16.2PPG, 5.4 RPG and 6.2APG and hitting 33.8% from beyond the arc. Reese has made her name with hard fouls on Clark and isn’t in the same conversation when you make a talent comparison. In this game though, in Chicago which will be a sellout (thank you CC), we expect the Sky to get a measure of revenge for the two losses to the Fever. Indiana has won 4 straight games which has driven this number down and gives us value with Chicago. The four wins aren’t as impressive as you might think as three came at home and two were versus Atlanta who is really struggling right now. The other two wins came against the 3-13 Mystics and this Sky team in Indiana. When we compare each team’s full season statistics, we find the Fever are the worst team in the W in overall Net Rating compared to the Sky who are 6th. Chicago has a negative points differential of -1.0PPG but the Fever are minus -7.3PPG. These two offenses have many similar statistics but the Sky rate much better defensively allowing 1.015 points per possession compared to the Fever giving up 1.130PPP. Indiana is just 5-25 SU their last 30 road games as a dog, 0-6 SU this season and with the line this short we will bet against them here.

ASA play on Phoenix Mercury +5.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - In handicapping the Mercury, you can’t look at their full season numbers as Britney Griner missed the early part of the season and they really struggled without her. In their last five games with Griner they are 5th in the league in Net Rating and have won 4 of five games, including a win at home against this same Lynx team. Phoenix is on a 5-0 ATS spread run and are coming off 3 full days of rest so they should be fresh for this rematch. Minnesota has also won 5 straight games and are 3-2 ATS in this stretch, but 3 of those wins came against Atlanta, Dallas and Los Angeles who are really playing poorly right now. Grab the points with the dog.

#225493 ASA PLAY on Belgium -1 (-130) over Romania @ 3 ET - This is a very late release for us - about 2 hours before the game goes but we got the info we wanted and this one shapes up to be a blowout. Even though Romania won 3-0 in their opening match they lost the possession battle and they faced a Ukraine team that is not on par with this Belgium team. As for that Belgium team, being upset - the biggest upset of the first matches played - means they are fully focused on getting back on track here. Belgium will not hold back and this one should see the big favorites jumping to an early lead plus not taking their foot off the gas. Unfortunately for Romania, they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. This one is all Belgium! Lay it!

ASA top play on Las Vegas Aces -6 vs. Connecticut Sun, 10 PM ET - With over 35-years of experience handicapping, sometimes your betting radar goes completely berserk when you look at the point spread of a game. That’s the case today when the Las Vegas Aces opened a -5.5-point favorite against the Connecticut Sun and were immediately bet up to the current number. The 13-1 Sun are getting this many points against the 7-6 Aces who are .500 at home this season. The Sun has some very favorable statistics as a result of playing one of the easiest schedules to date. They have played just 3 games against teams with winning records this season and one of those was a win against Phoenix who was without Brittney Griner. They split the other two games with a loss to the Liberty and a 1-point home win over Minnesota. The Aces have faced one of the league's tougher schedules this season with a shorthanded lineup until the other night. Las Vegas just got a key component back in the lineup with All-Star guard Chelsea Gray back from an injury. They have won 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over Minnesota and Phoenix in recent weeks. The Aces have one of the best home courts in the W with a 24-6 SU record in their last 30 and were 19-1 SU in the regular season a year ago with an average +/- of +17.6PPG. We like Las Vegas by double digits.

#22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-115/-120) over Florida Panthers, Friday at 8 PM ET - This is one of the more dramatic turnarounds you will ever see in a series and we strongly feel it is not over yet!  When the Oilers were down 3-0 in these Stanley Cup Finals, they had actually outshot the Panthers in 2 of the 3 games.  They could have easily been up 2-1 in the series but instead were down 3-0.  They could have packed it in at that point and prepared for the golf course.  Instead, Edmonton roared back with an 8-1 win in Game 4 followed by a 5-3 win on the road in Game 5.  While Skinner is playing very well for the Oilers in goal, the Panthers Bobrovsky all of the sudden lost his way!  He got pulled in Game 4 and certainly did not impress in Game 5.  Edmonton now has the more confident goalie in Skinner plus the home ice edge.  The reason Florida is getting so much love in the markets is because history suggests this series was over once it reached 3-0 as teams historically just do not come back from that kind of deficit.  History suggests very few 3-0 series even make it to a Game 7 and that is what is giving the Panthers some attention here.  However, anyone who has watched the last two games knows the ice has suddenly been tilted heavily in favor of Edmonton.  The Oilers made some key in-series adjustments and the Panthers have not been able to counter that yet.  On home ice and with all the momentum and confidence on their side, the Oilers will not be denied here.  Skinner is "in the zone" while the Panthers goaltending has suddenly slipped badly the last two games.  Considering all of the above, that makes this -115 range truly a bargain price on the Oilers the way we see it!  Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one!  Home team money line is our play here as the Oilers win to complete the comeback from a 3-0 deficit and force a Game 7 in  these Stanley Cup Finals!

#954 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -125 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies have the best record in the National League this season and they also are facing a struggling left-handed starter today that commands some respect from the betting markets yet he has not pitched like he deserves it this season.  That is creating some solid line value here as the Phillies are at home and Taijuan Walker shows the betting markets a rather unimpressive overall ERA so the value is there.  Walker has been pitching better here in June with 13 hits against 15 strikeouts in his 16 innings!  He has a combined 13-3 record in home starts the last 3 seasons combined.  Walker was 7-2 with a 3.55 ERA in his home outings for Philadelphia last season.  The Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery is off a good start but it was against the league-worst White Sox!  Montgomery entered that start with 17 earned runs allowed in 12 innings over 3 starts.  Also, 32 hits in 18 innings over his 4 starts prior to the good one against Chicago.  Now he faces a very powerful Phillies lineup known for being particularly tough at Citizens Bank Park.  Also, he has a 6.08 ERA in night starts with opponents hitting .322 against him.  The Phillies bullpen ERA ranks 7th in the majors and the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks 21st.  The Diamondbacks are about a .500 team this season but have only won 37.5% of their games when facing teams with a winning record.  The Phillies have won 72.5% of their home games this season.  When you consider numbers like that you can see why we have incredible value here at home with the Phillies at a low price on the money line.  It is not mis-priced rather the markets are very anti-Walker but the Phillies right-hander has been better of late.  Also, the Phillies have the better overall lineup and better bullpen and homefield edge and revenge from last year's NLCS loss to Arizona that knocked them out of the playoffs.  The Phillies are the bet in this one early Thursday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 164.5 - LA Sparks at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Sparks are down a starter here as rookie Brink tore her ACL and will be out for the season. Even though Brink didn’t have huge numbers this season it’s still a blow for a team that has a weak roster to begin with. L.A. is the 10th worst offensive team in Net Rating at 96.0 and average just 77.1PPG. The Sparks have scored less than 80-points in 7 of their last nine games and it’s unlikely they get to 80 against this Liberty defense that is one of the best in the W. NY is 4th in the league in Defensive Net Rating at 95.8 and they hold opponents to under 78PPG. New York is coming off a tough stretch of games on the road with 5 of their last six away from home so expect a slow start by the Liberty. These two teams haven’t met this season, but they have stayed Under the total in 3 of the last four meetings. With an ‘average’ pace of play tonight we don’t see these two teams getting to 165 total points.

#225461 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals +105 - Slovenia vs Serbia, Thursday at 9 AM ET - This one in Euro 2024 action. Serbia off the 1-0 loss to England but it was a very interesting match-up as England seemed content, after an early goal, to play a very defensive-minded game after that. Both Serbia and Slovenia have a some quality attackers and both need a victory here. Slovenia off the 1-1 draw with Denmark and not afraid to push on the attack for goals. Serbia had many chances to score and level things up with England and should enjoy success on the attack against Slovenia here. The total is a low one given the fact that both teams are off unders. Before that action in the first games of this stage, however, 8 of 10 Serbia matches totaled at least 3 goals and Slovenia scored 24 goals in 12 matches! This one, like that 80% trend in Serbia matches, should get to at least 3 goals as well! We only need 3 to cash this wager and our computer math model shows the most likely outcome as 2-1 and shows favorable odds on 3 or more goals. Take the Over in this one early Thursday afternoon.

ASA top play on OVER 170.5 Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET - The average number of field goal attempts in an WNBA game is 136.8. The average total points scored is 162.4PPG. These same two teams recently met on this same court and produced 143 total points and the O/U set on that game was 167. So why the move up on this number? The previous game between these two teams should have been much higher scoring as they combined for 139 field goal attempts but shot 36% (Storm) and 31% (Aces). Those numbers are well below their season averages of 43.6% and 41.2%. On the season the Aces are the 2nd in Offensive Net Rating, the Storm are 5th. A huge factor in our Over wager is the fact that both teams like to play fast. The Aces are 1st in Pace this season at 98.78, the Storm are the second fastest paced team in the league at 98.45. In five of the last seven meetings between these two teams, one of them has scored 96+ points and twice we’ve seen a team top 100-points in regulation. We are betting Over in this one!

#225457 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals +125 - Scotland vs Switzerland, Wednesday at 3 ET - This one in Euro 2024 action. Scotland off a 5-1 loss and they may struggle again to slow down their opponent but we expect a better performance offensively as they will want to respond off the embarrassment. Scotland 8 of 11 games have totaled at least 3 goals and many of those topped the 4-goal mark.  This is a strong value here with the big plus money available on the over 2.5 goals. Switzerland competitive matches - Euro and World Cup for example - have had 10 of 13 matches total at least 3 goals. 7 of those 10 got to at least the 4-goal mark and this one should as well! We only need 3 to cash this wager and our computer math model shows the most likely outcome as 2-1 and shows favorable odds on 3 or more goals. Take the Over in this one Wednesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. NY Liberty, 10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to fade the Liberty and back a Phoenix team that is better than their .500 record. New York is coming off a huge win over the Aces who beat them last season in the Finals and will have a tough time being focused here. If you look at the Mercury’s season statistics, they aren’t good. Phoenix has a negative Net Rating of -5.7, rank 7th in Offensive Net Rating and 11th in Defensive Net Rating. But when you look at their most recent 4 games with Griner back in the lineup they are significantly better with a +3.2 Net Rating. Griner’s impact is evident as she is scoring 22PPG, grabbing 7.8RPG and has 7 blocks on the season. With her in the lineup the Mercury are 3-1 SU with impressive wins over Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas and a close loss to Las Vegas. New York is playing their 5th road game in a six-game stretch making this a difficult scheduling situation. These two teams met on May 29th in New York and the Mercury played close in a 3-point loss without Griner. Don’t be shocked if Phoenix wins this game outright.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:38 PM ET - The Brewers are expected to start Carlos Rodriguez here and he struggled in his recent MLB debut. Looking at his minor league stats this does not come as a big surprise as he pitched well through AA ball but then got in trouble once he hit the AAA level. That has continued now at the major league level and he gave up 7 hits and lasted only 4 innings in his first start for the Brewers. After struggling against the Blue Jays last week, more of the same expected here against Los Angeles. We expect that the Angels will get to him as they have been scoring better for an extended stretch. After the Angels 13-6 loss yesterday, they have had 6 of last 7 games total at least 11 runs. The Angels have scored an average of 6 runs in those 7 games! The Brewers have won 6 of 9 games and scored 4.2 runs in those 9 games. They will face Jose Soriano and he is 1-4 with a 5.54 ERA in home games this season. Given the pitching match-up and the fact that the Angels have an AL-worst 5.50 bullpen ERA, we are expecting each team to get to the 4-run mark here and we see at least 9 runs as a result in this one. Our computer math model shows a range of 10 to 11 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the range of a dozen runs here. Over is the call in this one in Monday late night action.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

#2254297/225430 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – Romania vs Ukraine, Monday at 9 AM ET - This one being played in Euro 2024 action in Germany. Romania off B2B scoreless draws and, of their last 5 matches, 4 have totaled a combined 3 goals! We look for goals to again come at a premium in this one. Ukraine has had one slip-up in last 6 matches but in the other 5 matches they allowed a total of on only 2 goals! This includes shutouts versus Moldova and Germany and Italy! With Romania struggling to score goals but playing well defensive and Ukraine also having produced many solid results defensively since November, we look for a tight defensive-minded battle here. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see another 1-0 or 1-1 type match here. We will take the under in this one.

#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Yesterday's game barely stayed under the total.  The reason?  The teams combined for an unsightly 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position.  The scoring chances were certainly there but they were constantly wasted!  In this case now, we get a low number again today and we have a favorable pitching situation for an over also.  The Angels are going with a bullpen game and they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.  Ben Joyce is merely expected to be an opener here.  Next in line for the bulk of the work Sunday could be guys like Carson Fulmer and Jose Suarez.  Fulmer has allowed 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 appearances even though those 3 outings averaged only 2 innings apiece!  Joyce has struggled in recent outings, all short ones!  Suarez is off another rough outing and that one was as a starter.  Getting an early call from the pen here will likely not go well for him.  The Giants start Kyle Harrison here and he is off a rare quality start versus Houston.  Prior to this he allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 straight starts and gave up 17 earned runs in 26 innings.  Harrison has a 5.25 ERA in day games this season and opponents are hitting. 299 against him in San Francisco.  The Angels will get to him as they have been scoring better for an extended stretch.  Entering yesterday's crazy game (which should have had much more than 7 runs) the Angels had 5 straight games total at least 11 runs.  The Angels have scored an average of 6 runs last 6 games!  The Giants have scored 4.3 runs last 10 games.  Given the pitching match-up and the more favorable weather in San Francisco for hitting in the afternoon compared to a chilly evening, we are expecting each team gets to the 4-run mark here and we see at least 9 runs as a result in this one.  Our computer math model shows a range of 10 to 11 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the range of a dozen runs here.  Over is the call in this one Sunday late afternoon. 

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 165.5 Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury, 3 PM ET - The average total points in an WNBA game this season is currently 162.4PPG. This number is obviously set slightly higher than that, but our model suggests that it should be much higher, and pace of play is a big contributor. Seattle is the second fastest paced team in the league at 98.45 possessions per game. Phoenix is 4th at 97.27 possessions per/game. Seattle attempts nearly 4 more field goals per game than the league average, the Mercury are +1 in FGA’s. The Mercury make 9.6 3-point attempts per game which is 3rd most in the league. Both are around the league average in terms of Offensive Net Rating. Seattle holds an advantage in Defensive Net Rating ranking 3rd, the Mercury are 11th. In the Mercury’s last two games they scored 97 and 99 points but also allowed 90 and 103 points. Seattle has scored 95 and 92 points in their more recent games and have two games on their season resume of 100+. These two teams recently met in Seattle but only produced 142 points. It was a very poor shooting game with the Mercury at 34% overall and 17% from Deep. In that most recent meeting both teams were missing key components as the Storm were without Ogwumike who is averaging over 18PPG, while the Mercury didn’t have Grinner who has scored 24 and 25-points in the last 2 games.

#225417/225418 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – Poland vs Netherlands, Sunday at 9 AM ET - This one being played in Euro 2024 action in Germany. Both teams are missing some key players including attacking talent. These are two high-quality teams but without some key pieces, each one is going to look more to grind rather than attack. Look for a defensive-minded affair here as both teams are capable of being stingy defensively as well. Poland and Netherlands both enter this one on winning runs and limiting opponents scoring chances. Netherlands has not allowed a goal in 6 of last 7 games! Poland has allowed only 5 goals last 8 matches! Considering the above plus the injury issues, tight game emphasizing the defense is the story here! Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see another 1-0 or 1-1 type match here. We will take the under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -6.5 at Dallas Wings, 1 PM ET - This is an early tipoff so be sure to get your action in as soon as possible. At first glance, this line may look high, but in reality, it’s not. We can make a great comparison with recent Wings games when they were at home +6.5 vs. Seattle and lost by 8-points and they were +9 at home against the Aces on June 5th and lost by 14. Connecticut is better than both of those teams in most key statistical categories. The Sun have the 3rd best average point differential per game in the league at +9.6PPG and rank 1st overall in Net Rating Differential at +12.7. Teams are having a tough time scoring on the Sun who have the best Defensive Net Rating in the league at 90.9 and they allow just 71.1PPG. In comparison, the Wings allow the 2nd most points per game on the season at 86PPG and rank 10th in DNR at 104. Connecticut is 2-2 ATS this season as a road favorite but they have covered their two most recent games against the Sky and Dream. Going back 10 games, the Sun are 6-3-1 ATS as a road chalk. Dallas is 0-3 ATS as a home dog this season with all three of those losses coming by more than today’s point spread. Lay it with Connecticut.

ASA top play on UNDER 211.5 Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - If Dallas was going to win a game it was the last one, but we still can’t get involved with a side here and are conflicted on betting either Boston or Dallas. We do like the Under though as these two teams have produced total points of 205, 203 and 196 in the first 3 games of the series. Neither team has gotten to 108 points themselves and Dallas has been held to under 100-points in all three games. Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the series by limiting the Mavs to 44.4% shooting overall and 28.2% from Deep. Those numbers are well below the Mavs season standards of 47.8% and 36.8%. The Under is 7-2-1 the last 10 meetings between these two teams and we expect another low scoring game here.

ASA WNBA play on Under 159 Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics, 7:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met on this court with the Sky favored by -3-points and winning 79-71. That game had an O/U of 156.5, obviously stayed way Under, yet this line is higher? The over-adjustment has a lot to do with how well the Mystic are playing offensively in their 3 most recent games. Washington has scored 83, 88 and 87-points in the last 3 games and two of those came against solid defensive opponents in Atlanta and New York. On the season the Mystic shoot 41.3% overall and 34.9% from beyond the Arc. In their last three games though they are shooting 46.6% overall and 45.2% from the 3PT line, but those numbers are not sustainable. In fact, we expect a regression tonight, especially with an injured Sykes expected to miss with an injury after scoring 18-points last time out. Chicago is very good defensively with the 3rd best 3PT% defense in the league so don’t expect the Mystic to be dialed in from Deep. The Sky allow the 5th fewest points per game in the WNBA, the Mystic rank 7th. Going back to the start of last season these two teams have met 5 times and those games have finished with Total points of: 150, 159, 139, 146 and 140-points. We like another Under here

#16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-135) over Florida Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET - At this point in the season, 100 games in when you include the regular season and now all the post-season action of both Edmonton and Florida, plenty is known about both the Oilers and Panthers.  So what we want to speak the most about here is the fantastic situational aspect.  The Oilers are down 2-0 in this series but really played well in Game 1 despite losing and then lost Game 2 despite taking an early lead.  We feel Edmonton coming back to home ice after two straight losses is going to bring forth their best game of the post-season.  The Oilers have been so strong off B2B losses.  The last 7 times Edmonton entered a game off of consecutive losses they have won the next game all 7 times with scores of 4-2, 4-0, 4-3, 6-2, 9-2, 7-4 and 5-2.  That works out to an average score of 5.6 to 2.1 so the Oilers have not just been winning in this situation, they have been dominating.  Edmonton has won 4 of last 5 games on home ice and has scored an average of 4 goals per game when at home in this post-season.  Florida, of course, is having a great post-season but they have averaged scoring only 2.4 goals in their last 5 road games.  The Oilers goalie, Skinner, has allowed a total of only 3 goals in the last two games in Edmonton.  Florida goalie Bobrovsky has been great in this post-season but Edmonton will do a better job of getting more traffic in front of the net in this one and Bobrovsky is sure to face a barrage of shots from a desperate Oilers team that will be dialed in on home ice for their strongest effort yet in this series! That makes this -135 range actually a bargain price on the Oilers the way we see it!  Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one!  Home team money line is our play here as the Oilers win to climb right back into these Stanley Cup Finals! 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - Offensively these two teams are really struggling to score points in recent games as the Fever are scoring an average of 76.8PPG in their last 5 games, the Dream are putting up 69.2PPG. On the season, these two teams rank 11th (Atlanta) and 10th (Indiana) in Offensive Net Rating at 94.8 and 95.9. The Fever are the 5th worst team in EFG%, the Dream are 11th. Indiana is 7th in pace of play at 96.74 possessions per game. Atlanta prefers to play slow, ranking 10th in pace of play at 96.06 possessions per game. The last two times these two teams have met they have produced total points 163 and 155. Indiana is the worst defensive efficiency team in the W but the Dream can’t take advantage with a team that shoots 40.2%, 2nd worst in the league. Indiana will struggle to score against a Dream team with a Defensive Net Rating of 99.1 and allow just 79.4PPG on the season and hold opponents to 42% shooting. We like UNDER here.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -7 vs. Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - Despite what Angel Reese or any other WNBA player might say, fans aren’t coming to watch them, which makes home court much less important. Unless of course Caitlyn Clark is there, then the place is packed. We make that point for this reason. These two teams met on May 25th with the Sun favored by -5 on this court and are now laying more. The Sun won that game by just 4-points so why the move up in the number? The big reason the Sky kept that game close was because of an abnormal shooting night from beyond the Arc at 47%. They won’t duplicate that performance considering they are the 11th worst 3PT shooting team in the WNBA at 28.9%. Connecticut is 10-1 SU on the season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Connecticut is 4th on Offensive Net Rating, 1st in Defensive Net rating. Chicago is 1-4 SU at home this season with the win coming against a bad Sparks team. The Sun are 3-0 SU on the road and after a close win here last visit, we expect a more focused effort here. Lay it!

#917/918 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 or 9 Runs - Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:35 PM ET - Interestingly this pitching match-up features former college teammates. Our take, though we feel the future is bright for each, is that neither one of them are quite ready for the big-time. Spencer Schwellenbach has struggled in his first two outings for the Braves and he did skip the AAA level of the minors to get to this point. He had mostly pitched at the single A level and had very little AA experience before getting called up to the Braves. As for Cade Povich, he has only one MLB start and it was a disaster and he had some rather big ERA numbers in the minors as he tends to have command issues and also gives up too many big hits! Recent ERA numbers in the minors for Povich included 4.46 and 6.94 at AA Bowie and a 5.36 ERA last season at the AAA level. The Braves rank 11th in the majors for slugging percentage against lefties and will give Povich some problems here! As for Schwellenbach, he has the unenviable task of facing an Orioles team with a top-ranked .451 slugging percentage on the season! Baltimore has won 15 of 19 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in this hot stretch! The Braves off a shutout loss to the Orioles 4-0 here yesterday and Atlanta has had only 2 shutouts this season. Sandwiched around these 2 recent rare shutouts is a 7-game stretch in which the Braves averaged 5 runs scored per game. Both bullpens are solid this season but this is the right pitching match-up for the Atlanta bats to get going again plus the Orioles to stay red hot. Recent trending is keeping this total low but the combination of factors we mentioned above will prove that low number to be too low as this turns this into a rather high-scoring back and forth battle. Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs as most likely totals here. Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 8-3 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Minnesota has two losses by 1-point each and also a 14-point loss to this same Aces team. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season but are a disappointing 5-4 SU this season. The Aces are a wallet busting 3-6 ATS in their nine games. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the third-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +12.4, compared to the Aces at +4.4. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the 2nd best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 99.3 which ranks 7th. If we look at each team’s most recent 5-games the Lynx have superior overall statistics. Minnesota has a Net Rating of +19.4 (best in league) in their last five games, compared to the Aces at +1.9. Minnesota has an average +/- in their last five games of +15.4PPG, the Aces have a +/- scoring differential of +1.2PPG in their L5. The Lynx are hitting 45.5% of their field goal attempts in their last five, the Aces are at 40.5%. We like Minnesota to get a small measure of revenge here and potentially win this game outright.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The White Sox are starting Drew Thorpe.  Not only is the young rookie hurler making his MLB debut, he is skipping AAA ball to make it.  Thorpe has only made 38 appearances in the minors in his career and, though he has had good numbers, his stats were accumulated at the AA and single A levels in the minors!  Jumping all the way up to face major league hitters, and on the road no less, is not an easy task for a young pitcher.  The Mariners will take advantage and we also look for a strong start from Seattle starter Bryan Woo in this one!  Woo has absolutely dominated this season with a 1.07 ERA and a .139 batting average against in his 6 starts!  Woo has struck out 24 and walked just 2 and he has a 0.57 ERA in his 3 home starts this season!  Also, Woo has not allowed a single earned run in his 3 night starts - 0.00 ERA in 16 innings!  The White Sox are 5-27 on the road this season and 8-33 against teams with a winning record!  Also, Seattle is 22-11 at home and Chicago is 12-41 against right-handed starters this season.  78% of White Sox losses (39 of 50) have been by 2 or more goals and we expect another big loss for Chicago again here.  There is a reason Seattle is heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

#236977/236978 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – Argentina vs Ecuador, Sunday at 6 ET - This one being played in International Friendly action. Argentina such a strong team and they have conceded only 3 goals in last 12 games! Ecuador off a 2-0 loss to Italy but this followed allowing only 4 goals in last 9 games. You can see why we are expecting a tight, defensive battle here. The last 4 meetings between these teams featured a pair of 1-0 games and a 1-1 draw. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see another 1-0 or 1-1 type match here. We will take the under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky pick’em to +1.5 vs. Atlanta Dream, 5 PM ET - The wrong team was originally favored in this game as the Dream opened as a -1.5 point favorite, but that has quickly been steamed to the current pick’em line. These two teams have similar statistics including an OEFF (offensive efficiency) for both teams around .994 and a DEFF (defensive efficiency) near 1.000PPP allowed. Chicago has a better overall point differential per game of +0.1 compared to the Dream at -2.8PPG. When it comes to Net Rating the Sky hold and advantage there too with a +0.1 rating versus Atlanta’s -4.0. The big advantage the Sky have in this game is on the O-boards as they rank 2nd in the WNBA in Offensive Rebound Percentage compared to the Dream who rank 11th. Those second chance opportunities will be a huge advantage for the home team Sky. Chicago has made some big improvements this season and the Dream are just 3-7 SU their last 10 on the road. Back the host in this one.

#965 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Angels are off of a surprising sweep at home over the Padres. However, Los Angeles entered that series just 7-21 at home this season and we are certainly not sold on this Angels team. They have a very weak lineup and even including their 3-game win streak have scored only 35 runs in their last 13 games - an average of 2.7 runs per game. The Astros had won 3 of 4 games and scored about 6 runs per game prior to a 4-2 loss versus St Louis. Houston has underachieved this season but there is still quality with this team especially in comparison with an Angels team that no longer has Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and is currently without Trout due to injury. We like this revenge spot for Framber Valdez as he was cruising along with a 6-1 lead at home when things suddenly unraveled in a crazy top of the 5th in which the Angels got to him for 7 runs with 4 of those coming with 2 outs in the inning. In his other 4 starts since early May, Valdez has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs. He will be tough here in this revenge spot as, when he is dialed in and focused, he is a tough one on the mound. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning here. He gave up only 3 earned runs but was tagged for 9 hits in his most recent home start. Canning had a 6.13 ERA in his 3 home starts in April. The fact is, Canning has struggled at times in his home starts this season and we look for that again here. As for the bullpens, Astros relievers have a 3.60 ERA this season while the Angels bullpen is one of the worst in the majors with a 4.71 ERA. There is a reason Houston is heavily favored on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on INDIANA FEVER -2.5 vs Washington Mystics, 7:30 PM ET - This is the strongest play we’ve made this young season as scheduling, along with several other key factors favor the Fever in this match up. Combined these two teams have just 2 wins this season. The Fever tough have played toughest schedule to date in the WNBA, but now 3 days rest coming into tonight. The Mystic are in a very bad scheduling situation playing 3rd game in four nights and second of a B2B. Washington lost at home last night to the Sky 71-79 despite Chicago shooting just 38% overall and going 1 of 14 from beyond the arc. The Mystic turned the ball over 24 times which is not unusual for them as they average 19.7 per 100 possessions, 3rd worst in the league.  Indiana's not as bad as their record because of the schedule. The Fever have an Offensive Efficiency rating of .978 compared to the Mystics .922. In terms of DEFF the Fever allowing 1.143 points per possession, the Mystic allowing 1.052.  The Fever’s defensive numbers are terrible, but they’ve faced New York four times this season who is the most efficient offensive in the W, they played Las Vegas 2nd and Connecticut 4th. Indiana is the better offensive rebounding team, shoots a higher EFG% and turns the ball over less. Washington is 0-3 ATS their last three as a home dog, just two covers in their last seven as a home pooch. Surprisingly, the Fever were a road favorite once this season in LA and won/covered. They are 3-1 ATS their last four laying points on the road. We like the Fever to get their 3rd win of the season by margin.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

#908 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Rockies are 8-23 on the road this season and went 22-59 the season before that and went 27-54 the year before that and 26-54 the year before that. Yes Colorado is a disastrous 83-190 in road games since the start of the 2021 season! We love the value here in fading the road-adverse Rockies as the Cardinals appear set to notch a blowout home win in this one. Sonny Gray gets the call for St Louis here and he is 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his home starts this season. Opponents are hitting only .167 against him in home starts this season! The Rockies counter with Cal Quantrill and he is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in night game outings this season. Last season he was 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA overall for the season. The Rockies have lost 5 straight games overall and are 2-7 in last 9 road games. The Cardinals are on a 14-7 run including wins in 5 straight home games and 7 of last 8 as a host. The Rockies are 1-8 against Central Division teams this season. 30 of the Rockies 40 losses this season have been by a multi-run margin and our computer math model shows this one has most likely a Cards win by 3 runs with a margin of 4 and 2 the next most likely outcomes. Look for the Cardinals to roll big here. Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team at a very fair price offered by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165.5 NY Liberty at Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - We successfully bet Under in the Liberty’s last game against the Sky and will come right back with another Under wager in this game as the Sky/Dream have some similarities. Both the Liberty and Dream are in the top half of the league in Defensive Efficiency ratings with the Liberty allowing .967-points per possession, the Dream give up .995PPP. New York is the 5th slowest paced team in the WNBA at 78.9 possessions p/game, the Dream are 2nd slowest at 78.8PPP. Atlanta has stayed Under the total in 3 straight games with numbers of 119, 152 and 140. The Dream are a poor shooting team at 40.3% on the season and are coming off a horrendous shooting night of 28% against the Sun. Atlanta is also in the bottom half of the league in Offensive Efficiency. New York has put up 104 and 90-points in two most recent games but they came against the Fever and Mystics who are the worst defenses in the league. In fact, New York’s 86.1PPG is very misleading as they’ve faced a weak schedule with 6 of their ten games this season coming against the three worst Defensive Net Ratings teams in the W. New York is clearly the dominant team here and they may call off the dogs late in this game as they have a huge game on deck against Connecticut. We are on the Under in this one.

#236881 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals - Wales vs Gibraltar, Thursday at Noon ET - This one in International Friendly action. This is only a friendly but with Wales not going to Euro 2024 they are likely to be more focused and play an attacking style here to make a statement even though this is a friendly competition. They are likely aware of comments Gibraltar is making stating that they can keep this game competitive. Gibraltar is, as you would expect being such a small area, one of the weakest in UEFA. They are completely out-manned here and Wales is a 3-goal favorite on the goal line. We look for Wales to score at least 4 here but perhaps Gibraltar gets a surprise goal and Wales under-performs and wins 3-1. You can see that either result gets us a win with this total available at 3 goals. Wales beat Gibraltar 4-0 in the last friendly meeting just last year and they scored all 4 goals in the first half and then took their foot off the gas. With Gibraltar chirping a bit before this one you may see even more of a relentless approach from Wales in this one all the way all 90 minutes! Take the Over in this one early Thursday afternoon.

ASA play on UNDER 168.5 Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - Our Math Model has a number of 164.7 total points being scored in this game and we agree with it’s assessment. Las Vegas is 2nd in the WNBA in offensive efficiency at 1.063-points per possession and 6th in DEFF. Dallas holds the 5th spot in OEFF at 1.040PPP and are 9th in defensive efficiency. The Aces are the fastest paced team in the league, the Wings are 6th at 79.4 possessions per game. This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs in which the Aces swept the Wings 3-0 on their way to a Championship banner. We are not sold on the Aces this season as they’ve faced a weak schedule with two games against the Mercury, one versus the Sparks and one against the Fever. Those 4 games are against the worst teams in the league, other than the Mystics. Dallas has faced a slightly tougher schedule, but this will be their biggest test of the season. The Aces weakness early in the season has been their 3PT defense as they have allowed opponents to hit over 41% of their 3-point attempts, 12th worst in the league. Dallas can’t take advantage of LV’s weakness though as they attempt only 15.4 3-pointers per game, making 33.3%. It won’t be easy for the Wings to score on the interior either as the Aces allow foes to make just .42.9% of their 2PT field goals, best defensive number in the WNBA. Dallas also makes a living on the offensive glass with the best O-board rebound percentage in the league, but Las Vegas is 1st in defensive rebounding percentage. These two teams combined for a few higher scoring games a year ago but the majority of those came in Las Vegas. When they met 3 times in Dallas, they produced total points of 125, 188 and 158. We like UNDER here.

#964 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 6 straight games and 23 of 29. Like the Phillies in the NL, the Yankees have been the red hot team in the AL. Of course this is why the Yankees are a heavily priced home favorite here. The value comes into play in looking at the run line and that is available at +110 in the market place and is a great value when you look at recent margin of victory results for the Yankees. 21 of the Yankees last 22 wins have been by at least 2 runs! As the money line (in 190 range) shows you, the Yankees are likely to make it 7 straight wins here. As the 21 of 22 stat shows you, the Yankees are also likely to have that victory come by a multi-run margin! These teams matched up in Minnesota in mid-May and Chris Paddack faced Carlos Rodon in one of the games in that series. The Yankees and Rodon won that game 5 to 1. Not only that, Paddack allowed 12 hits in 5 innings and Rodon allowed only 6 hits in 6 innings. We look for dominance again in the rematch. Paddack has a .287 batting average against this season and has been in that range each of the last 3 seasons. Rodon has a .222 batting average against this season and it is .233 in his career. He is 7-2 this season and has been particularly dominant at home with a 3-0 record and a 2.13 ERA! The Twins have lost 11 of 20 including losing 6 of last 10 on the road. The Yankees have won all 4 games against the Twins this season and with big edges in this one, a home blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a comeback price in the +110 range with the Yankees. Great spot to grab the solid value with the hot team at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -7 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as the Storm are playing well having won 4 straight games, while the Mercury are 1-4 SU in their last five. Phoenix has some holes in their lineup without Griner and Allen and it’s shown in recent results. The Storm on the other hand have found a rhythm with free-agent additions in Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike starting to gel. Seattle is 6th in the WNBA in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 7th. The big separator is defensive as the Storm rank 3rd in the league allowing just .97-points per possession compared to the Sun who allow 1.060PPP which is 11th out of twelve teams. Even after a 1-3 SU start, the Storm still have a +4.2PPG differential and +1.7RPG plus/minus. Phoenix on the other hand have a negative average differential of minus -6.8PPG and get out-rebounded by -1.2RPG. Seattle is 4-1 ATS as a favorite in their last five games. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS as a Dog of +8.5-points or less in their last four. The Storm are also in a much better scheduling situation here as they have been off since May 30th while the Mercury are playing their 5th game in an 8-day span. Lay the points.

#4 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-135) over Dallas Stars, Sunday at 8 PM ET - Edmonton has really turned this series on its head. When they were down 2-0 in Game 4 and already down 2-1 in the series, it looked like this was going to be the end once again for the Oilers who have been trying so hard to get it done while they have a generational talent like Connor McDavid. Well, there was no quit in this Edmonton team as they rallied to win that game 5 to 2 to tie the series up. Then they went down to Dallas and knocked off the Stars down in Texas by a count of 3 to 1 and the Dallas goal was a late one. The point is that Edmonton has a ton of momentum and we have seen more grit and solid defense throughout this post-season than Oilers teams of recent seasons. This truly look like a team that now can win it all. Dallas is finding that out now too as Edmonton's offensive firepower is just as potent as ever but now they have strong defensive play to match it. At the same time, Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner is on top of his game and looks so comfortable out there. When a goalie is in the zone like Skinner is now plus on home ice plus has a strong defense in front of him and a potent offense for goal support...it all adds up to a huge mental edge. Right now, Edmonton has scored 8 of the last 9 goals in this series and they have all the momentum in this series plus the home ice edge and an "in the zone" goalie. That makes this a bargain price on the Oilers the way we see it! Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one! Home team money line is our play here as the Oilers win to advance to Stanley Cup Finals.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +8 at Minnesota Lynx, 7 PM ET - This line immediately grabbed our attention as our model suggests this number is higher than it should be in the Lynx favor. A great comparison can be made with a recent Lynx game in which they faced a struggling Phoenix team and were favored at home by this same margin. Dallas is significantly better than the Mercury right now as the Wings have a Net Rating of +1.4 compared to the Mercury’s -9.5. Dallas has covered 5 of six games this season and has a Net point differential of +1.3PPG. The Wings have wins versus Chicago, Phoenix and the Sparks and have closes losses to the Sun by 2-poitns and the Dream by 5-points. Their biggest loss of the season was by nine points, so they’ve been highly competitive in every game this season. Minnesota is coming off a blowout win over Mercury and are 5-2 SU to start the season. The Lynx has the 2nd best point differential in the WNBA at +8.7PPG and rely on their defense which is the best in the league in Defensive Net Rating. Dallas is more than capable offensively with the 4th best Offensive Net Rating and will be competitive in this game from start to finish.

#201202 ASA PLAY ON Atalanta -1 -115 over Fiorentina, Sunday at Noon ET - This one in Serie A action and it is the season finale for the league. We like the value of the goal line here. Atalanta is a huge favorite on the money line but we lay a small price to have them at -1 goal. The moods of these two clubs entering the season finale are drastically different. Fiorentina off disappointment in other European competition while Atalanta finished with great success with the win over Bayer Leverkusen. That combined with a season finale on home pitch and also a goal differential of 40 to 13 in home matches means the hosts are a great play here considering the motivational factors. These teams are at two different ends of the spectrum right now in terms of emotions. Fiorentina likely "mailing it in" for this season finale. Take Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.

#224201 ASA PLAY ON Borussia Dortmund +1 -125 over Real Madrid, Saturday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action and it is the big one as it is the Champions League Final. We like the value of the goal line here. Real Madrid is a big favorite on the money line based on their Championship pedigree but this Borussia Dortmund team has been very impressive. We will grab the value of the +1 goal on the goal line here as we can get involved at a reasonable price. As strong as Real Madrid has been, only 12 of last 35 games have been wins by a multi-goal margin. This is why there is such value in looking at the goal line here. This Borussia Dortmund club has been so strong that they will be tough to beat let alone to defeat by a multi-goal margin! Borussia Dortmund has just 5 losses by more than a goal in their last 57 games. We feel they match up well and can frustrate Real Madrid with strong defensive play. Take Borussia Dortmund on Saturday afternoon.

ASA play on OVER 166.5 Chicago Sky at Indiana Fever, 12 PM ET - Much will be made of the rookie showdown between Caitlyn Clark and Angel Reese as these two players have had some historic battles in the NCAA Tournament the past two years. That’s water under the Dam and what concerns us here is how many points both teams are going to score. We expect both to get to at least 83-points each and will be on the Over ticket here. Indiana is bad defensively! They allow the most points per game at 91.2PPG, opponents shoot on average 46.5% against them overall and 37.3% from beyond the arc. The Fever’s Defensive Net Rating of 111.3 is 12th or worst in the league. Indiana has allowed 103, 88 and 99 points in their last three games. Offensively the Fever got off to a slow start but have now scored 80+ points in 6 of their last seven games. Chicago is top half of the league in pace of play at 98.16 possessions per game and average 14.6 seconds per shot attempt, 7th fastest. The Sky are averaging a shade under 81PPG on the season but have also faced New York, Seattle and Connecticut in recent games and those teams are 3 of the four best defenses in the WNBA. If you are a history bettor you’ll like the fact that these two teams have combined to go Over the number in 10 straight meetings. Bet Over!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 160.5 Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7:30 PM ET - Tonight, we have a great opportunity to take advantage of the O/U line move on this game and capture some added value with an Over wager. This line opened 164.5 and has been bet down to the current number of 161.5. Both teams are above league average in many offensive statistics categories including your basic Points Per game as the Wings average 86PPG, the Sun 83.83PPG. Both are highly efficient when it comes to scoring too as the Sun average 1.040-points per possession, the Wings are 3rd in the WNBA, just behind the Sun at 1.030PPP. Both teams are also top 4 in ONR or Offensive Net Rating and both shoot it an a 43% or better rate. The Wings want to play fast and average the most possessions in the league at 100.08. The Sun prefer to play slower at 94.63 possessions per game which is 12th in the league. Both teams are top 3 in the WNBA when it comes to defensive efficiency rating, but the Sun’s numbers are slightly skewed after allowing 47-points to a struggling Mercury team last time out. Prior to that game, the Sun had allowed 82+ points in three straight games. Dallas has allowed 83 or more points in 4 of five games this season and allows opponents to scored 84PPG on average which is the 10th highest average in the league. We don’t need these two teams to do anything extraordinary tonight, they just need to be ‘average’ to cash this Over wager. Going back to last season, the three most recent clashes produced total points of 170, 172 and 171. Bet Over in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We admittedly were wrong on our last Total bet on this series as they Over never came close, but one critical aspect of that game has us on the Under here. Both teams made a conscious effort to play at a very slow pace as they combined for only 155 field goal attempts. To put that into perspective, the league average was 177 during the regular season. Minnesota had a great shooting performance at 53%, the Mavs were well below expectations at 42%. We are betting these two teams slow the tempo in this elimination game and when they shoot near their series averages of 48.8% (Mavericks) and 46.5% (Wolves) this game easily stays Under. In the first two games of this series these two teams combined for 176 and 169 field goal attempts and totaled 213 and 217 points. We like a low scoring game here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +4.5 at Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - These two teams are nearly identical statistically this season with Chicago holding a slight advantage in Offensive Net Ratings and Defensive Net Rating. The Sparks are the much better shooting team at 44.09% overall and 37.31% from Deep. Chicago shoots it at 42.06% from the field and 32.56% from beyond the arc. Underdogs have done extremely well this season in the WNBA with a 23-13 ATS record and the Sparks have covered 8 of their last eleven on the road. Chicago is a young team and just 1-4 SU their last five home games. Chicago hasn’t been a Chalk yet this season so grab the value with the Sparks.

ASA WNBA top play on Minnesota Lynx +4.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 8 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 4-1 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season and are 3-1 this season, but they have been less than impressive. The Aces are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming against the Fever who were in a horrible scheduling situation. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the second-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +11.6, compared to the Aces at +7.5. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 102.4 which ranks 8th. The Lynx has a +10.2PPG differential this season and have won both home games this season. Las Vegas will be playing their first road game of the year and are overpriced in this one.

#215301 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals - Olympiacos vs Fiorentina, Wednesday at 3 ET - This one in Europa Conference League action. This is the final and it is practically being played in the back-yard of Olympiacos. However, both of these teams are managed by tacticians that know how to attack their opponents weakest areas and we surely will not discount the Serie A strength of this Fiorentina team even in more of a road venue for them. The result should be plenty of scoring just like we have seen in the recent games for each of these teams. Olympiacos averaged 2.2 goals per game in the Greek Super League this season. In the Europa Conference League, Olympiacos is off a 2-0 win and this was after 4 of the 5 prior games totaled at least 5 goals! So, not only overs but easy ones. Fiorentina's most recent game in Europa Conference League action was a 1-1 draw but they were protecting a 3-2 first leg lead in that situation. This is different here as this is a winners take all match-up that is, of course, 0-0 right now! Fiorentina will push hard and all their other 7 recent games since late April totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 4.4 goals each. We look for back and forth battle here that gets to 3+ goals and we love the plus money (+120ish) on this total. Take the Over in this one Wednesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Over has cashed in all three games of this series, and even though the O/U number has been adjusted up 3 full points, we will still play Over. Dallas is getting up 80 field goal attempts per game in this series, which is lower than their season average of 88.6, but they are making 51% of those attempts and are averaging 111PPG. Minnesota is attempting 86.3 field goals per game in the 3-game series, making 44.8% and scoring 106.7PPG. In this series, the Mavs offensive Net rating is 118.5, the Wolves have an ONR of 114.3, both are considerably higher than their season averages. These two teams rank 4th and 5th in EFG% in the Playoffs at 54.3% and Dallas in particular is making a high percentage of their 3’s at 38.1% in this series alone. The Wolves have had their ups and downs from beyond the Arc but are still hitting 35.5% from Deep against the Mavs. O/U’s in this price range in Conference Finals have gone over at a 74% rate and we expect both teams to get to at least 105 here.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 166.5 LA Sparks at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - These same two teams recently met in LA and produced 151 total points. Indiana shot 42% overall, 28% from beyond the Arc. Los Angeles made 25-59 field goal attempts for 42% and hit just 21% from Deep for 73-points. These two teams both prefer to play slow with the Sparks ranking 9th slowest team at 97.6 possessions per game, the Fever are 11th at 96.9 possessions p/game. Both teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in defense, but you’ll also find them 7th or worse in offensive Net rating. Games involving the Sparks this season are averaging 160PPG. The Fever plus their opponents have averaged 167.4PPG but they’ve also faced Las Vegas, the highest scoring team in the league and Connecticut twice who is 4th in PPG. This Los Angeles team isn’t anywhere near the caliber of those teams offensively and this game never gets close to the O/U number. Bet UNDER!

#202605/202606 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals – Wehen Wiesbaden vs Jahn Regensburg, Tuesday at 2:30 ET - This one is in the Bundesliga playoffs to see who will be in the 2nd league in Germany next season. This is the 2nd Leg of the battle and the 1st Leg was a 2-2 tie at Regensburg. Wiesbaden is fighting for survival in the 2nd league while Regensburg is looking for promotion after their performance in 3.Liga in Germany allowed them to get to this point. Regensburg was not a tremendously high-scoring team this season but their games still averaged 2.5 goals and Wiesbaden will dictate the pace at home here we feel certain. Taking a look at Wiesbaden, the hosts in this match-up, they conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in Bundesliga 2 and also their last 14 home games have averaged 3 goals apiece. They should score well here but they did concede 1.5 goals scored per game in the Bundesliga 2 yet they are the stronger team in this match-up. Per our computer math model, another 2-2 draw here has good probability as well as solid probability for a 3-2 final or, at the very least, a 2-1 final. That being said, the over is the play in this one as both teams go all out in this ultra-key battle where once one team gets that first goal it will set up a game in which the floodgates are wide open. We will take the over here.

ASA top play on UNDER 222.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - The first two games of this series flew over the numbers with 234-points (in regulation time) and 236 in Game 2. The third game in Indianapolis crept Over the number late with 225 total points. That game had a fairly low possession rate with 83 field goal attempts for Boston and 91 for Indiana. The Pacers got two huge unexpected scoring efforts from Nembhard and McConnell who scored 32 and 23 points respectively. Those two players average under 11PPG on the season so it’s highly unlikely they will get those types of numbers against a Boston defense that will adjust. What’s surprising in this series is that the Pacers have shot 51% or better in all 3 games against this Celtics defense that is 2nd in the NBA in opponents FG%. Boston had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road this season allowing 1.136-points per possession. They also slowed their pace considerably when on the road with the 5th fewest possessions per game when they were the visitor. Indiana is also playing much slower at home in the postseason with an average of 92.72 possessions per game compared to their regular season average of 102.29. With or without Haliburton we like a lower scoring game here. We doubt the role players for the Pacers can duplicate the scoring output in Game 4 as they did in Game 3 and if Haliburton can’t go again, Indiana will have their offensive struggles. Bet Under.

#909 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies +105 over San Francisco Giants, Monday at 5:05 PM ET - The Phillies have the best record in baseball this season and they also are facing a struggling left-handed starter today that commands respect from the betting markets yet he has not pitched like he deserves it this season. The start of Blake Snell's season has been marred by injuries and he had missed spring training already and now he has been on paternity leave too. Add up all of these variables and it comes as no surprise that Snell has struggled. Snell is 0-3 with an 11.40 ERA this season. We are making this wager with action on the pitchers as there is an outside chance Snell could get scratched and also our play is not heavily based on Phillies pitcher Taijuan Walker either. However, we will say that Walker has a respectable 3.98 ERA this month and allowed only 1 earned run in 6 innings in his only road start this month. The Phillies are 16-8 on the road this season and the Giants are an ugly 6-14 against teams that currently have a .500 record on the season. Philadelphia is 11-2 this season against NL West teams! The Phillies are one of the top hitting teams in the majors away from home this season and have a .338 on base percentage which ranks #2 in the majors. Philadelphia has won 28 of 36 games but they are coming off a loss yesterday. The Phillies have been fantastic off a loss this season including going 13-1 the last 14 times! The Phillies have won all 4 games against SF this season and 6 of the last 7! The Giants have been playing well but their lineup is just not on par with that of Philadelphia's and we like the line value with the Phillies available here without laying any juice and coming off a loss. San Francisco has a slugging percentage at home that ranks them in the lower third of the majors! Phillies get the call in this one Monday.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Atlanta Dream -3.5 vs Minnesota Lynx, 6 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling situation for the Lynx who are coming off a game last night against New York and had to travel to Atlanta for the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be their 3rd game in a four-day span. Two other WNBA teams have fallen into this scheduling scenario this season, and both have been blown out by double-digits. Atlanta is 2-1 SU this season with a road win against the Sparks, a close loss to Phoenix and a home win against Dallas. Minnesota is 3-1 SU with a pair of wins over Seattle, a road loss to Connecticut and a win last night versus the Liberty. Minnesota’s has the best defensive Net rating in the NBA but that number is somewhat misleading considering they played the Storm twice who are last in the league in offensive Net rating. Atlanta’s strength is their offense as they rank 5th in Net rating at 105.3 which is significantly higher than the Lynx at 95.9. Atlanta won 2 of three last year versus the Lynx and with the tough schedule situation we like the Dream to get another W here.

#971 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -110/-115 over Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - We won with Cleveland last night and Friday night and we will use them again here on Sunday! The Guardians have won 8 straight games and 11 of 12. The Angels are 6-18 at home this season as they have the worst record in the majors in home games this year! The Guardians, on the other hand, have won 67.3% of games this season! The Angels are 7-20 against teams that have a winning record this season! The line has been kept very manageable here because the Angels are at home but again LA has actually been horrible at home this season. Also, Reid Detmers gets the start for the Angels here and his season has not gone too well. This includes getting crushed at Cleveland while Lively was solid against the Angels when he faced them there. Detmers has given up 7 homers in his last 4 starts and he is 1-3 in 5 appearances this season at Angel Stadium plus has an overall 5.80 ERA on the season. Cleveland's Lively has a 2.84 ERA on the season and a solid KK/BB ratio just like Detmers does. Lively and the Guardians get it done again here as they make it 9 straight wins. High probability for Cleveland's 8-game winning streak to continue per our computer math model. Many indicators, as you can see above, are in favor of the road team at a very fair price in this one! Lay it with the Guardians again! Take Cleveland!

Rotation #201833/201834 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals – Sevilla vs Barcelona, Sunday at 3 ET - This one in Spanish La Liga action. No pressure on either team since Real Madrid is all set as the league winners so Barcelona is locked into the #2 spot and Sevilla knows they themselves can not move out of the bottom half of the table. Look for Sevilla to go with a full lineup in this home finale and this club can play relaxed with no pressure and will look to get at least 1 goal past Barcelona. However, the visitors are a big favorite here of course and should score well in this one as they continue their strong season-ending stretch. That being said, we do expect the goals to come in strong in this one. Sevilla has averaged 1.4 goals scored at home this season but also has allowed 1.4 goals the season when at home. Barcelona one of the highest scoring teams in the league but should allow at least a goal here in an attack-mindset season finale. The key here being that Barcelona should dominate for long stretches but we expect the hosts to answer with at least one goal at a minimum in a wide-open affair. Barcelona has scored 3 goals in 2 of last 3 meetings with Sevilla. Barcelona has averaged 2.5 goals in last 6 games overall. Sevilla was shutout in most recent game at home but scored an average of 2 goals in 7 home games leading into that one. We will take the over here.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 168 Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - Both teams have exceeded expectations early this season with the Wings at 2-1 ATS, the Mercury at 3-1 ATS. Phoenix lost their season opener at the defending Champions Las Vegas by 9-points, then beat Atlanta, Las Vegas and Washington. Dallas had a win against Chicago at home, then lost to the Sky in a rematch and also lost at Atlanta. Phoenix has the much better offense in this matchup with the 4th best offensive Net rating in the WNBA compared to the Wings who rate 9th. But Dallas was 3rd overall in offensive Net rating a season ago at 104.6 and are much better than they’ve showed thus far. Not too mention the Wings have faced the Sky twice who have the 3rd best defensive Net rating this season. Phoenix put up 84.9PPG a season ago and have scored 80, 88, 98 and 83 points in their four games this season. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 101 possessions per game, the Mercury are 4th at 100.20. This game is going to be a shootout. Bet the Over!

ASA top play on UNDER 222.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - The first two games of this series flew over the numbers with 234-points (in regulation time) and 236 in Game 2. With the two Overs cashing rather easily we are seeing a lower number in this game of 222.5, which has been bet down despite more tickets and general public betting the Over? Boston has shot well in both games which is to be expected considering they are one of the best offenses in the league and Indiana’s defense is suspect. What’s surprising is that the Pacers have shot 52% or better in both games against this Celtics defense that is 2nd in the NBA in opponents FG%. Boston had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road this season allowing 1.136-points per possession. They also slowed their pace considerably when on the road with the 5th fewest possessions per game when they were the visitor. Indiana is also playing much slower at home in the postseason with an average of 92.72 possessions per game compared to their regular season average of 102.29. With or without Haliburton we like a lower scoring game here.

Rotation #201817/201818 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals – Real Madrid vs Betis, Saturday at 3 ET -No pressure on either team since Real Madrid is all set as the league winners but rested guys in their most recent game so they are expected to go with a full lineup in this home finale with those guys looking to take advantage of the rest.  Betis is also set in terms of their position in the standings so we do expect the goals to come in strong in this one.  Betis averaged 1.2 goals scored but allowed 1.5 goals when on the road this season.  Real Madrid was the highest scoring team in the league but should allow at least a goal here in an attack-mindset season finale.  The key here being that Real Madrid has scored 2.7 goals per game when at home this season and we feel at least 3 for the home team here and we expect the visitors to answer with at least one goal at a minimum in a wide-open affair. We will take the over here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever. L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle. The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game. L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

ASA play on UNDER 207.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, Game 2 8:30PM ET - This first game of the series went Over the number with 213 total points being scored between the two teams. The two teams had insanely good shooting first halves and put up 121 points by the break, then regressed to 92-points in the second half. Minnesota made 11 of 25 3-pointers or 44% in the first half, then made just 7/24 in the 2nd half for 29%. Dallas shot 56% overall in the first half and 73% inside the arc in scoring 59-points. The Mavs ended the game at 49.4% overall and 24% from Deep. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. Minnesota is playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. This has been an Under series with 7 of the last ten meeting flying below the Total.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

Rotation #201321/201322 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals – Genoa vs Bologna, Friday at 2:45 ET - Bologna off the crazy 3-3 game with Juventus where they blew a 3-goal lead. That means no lead is likely safe here in this battle with Genoa and this is going to be a tough game for Bologna that should, in turn, see a fair amount of scoring again.  Bologna was shut out once in their last 5 games but in the other 4 games in this stretch it was an average of 2 goals scored for Bologna per game. Genoa comes into this one ready to bounce back off a 1-0 loss and should be at their best here at home.  The first meeting this season was a 1-1 tie but Genoa has been stronger at home where they average 1.4 goals scored per game.  Bologna has been the stronger club this season and it is no mistake that they are favored in this one. Bologna has averaged scoring 1.5 goals per game this season and, even at higher juice, the over 2 goals is the way to play this.  Having 2 goals as your number is a huge value in soccer wagering with overs. We will take the over here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 224.5 Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - The first game of this series was Over the number at the end of regulation with 234 total points. Boston put up 94-points through 3Q’s and looked they were on their way to scoring 124 themselves before a poor shooting, turnover filled 4Q. Indiana shot extremely well in Game 1 and found a way to exploit the Celtics defense by putting Al Horford in the pick-n-roll repeatedly. The Pacers put up over 119PPG on the road this season, the Celtics averaged 119.4PPG at home. These two teams were the two most efficienct teams in the league in the regular season with both averaging over 1.210-points per possession. That means this doesn’t have to be a high possession game to cash an Over as both make shots and typically don’t turn it over at a high volume. Indiana is on a 14-5 Over streak. Boston has gone over in 13 of their last 19 against the Pacers and 5-2 Over their last seven games overall.

ASA WNBA play UNDER 162.5 Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun, 7 PM ET - It’s early in the season but the numbers tell us the Lynx and Sun can play some defense. Minnesota is 1st in the league in Defensive Net Rating at 84, the Sun are 5th at 96.3. Minnesota held the Storm to 70-points in the season opener then held them to 78-points in regulation in Game 2. Connecticut has allowed 71, 77 and 84 points in three games this season. Those three games were against two of the worst defensive teams in the WNBA, Indiana and Washington. Minnesota has higher pace numbers this season, but they were the 9th slowest a year ago and we expect a regression towards their 95.84 possessions per game in 2023. Connecticut prefers to play slower too as they ranked 10th slowest last season at 95.14 possessions per game. The Sun clearly prefer to play half court basketball at a slower tempo as they currently rank last in the league in possessions per game. Last season these two teams met 7 times including the playoffs and the oddsmakers posted a total higher of 162 just one time. Four of those seven meetings resulted in less than 162 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

#202401/202402 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals – Vfl Bochum vs Fortuna Dusseldorf, Thursday at 2:30 ET - This one is in the Bundesliga playoffs to see who will be in the top league in Germany next season. That means Vfl Bochum is fighting for survival in the league while Fortuna Dusseldorf is looking for promotion after their performance in Bundesliga 2 allowed them to get to this point. Fortuna Dusseldorf was the highest scoring team in the league and averaged 2 goals scored per game in Bundesliga 2. As for Vfl Bochum, the hosts in this match-up, they conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in Bundesliga top flight action and that was the worst GAA in the league.  They should score well here as they did average 1.5 goals scored per home game in the Bundesliga and they are the top flight team in this match-up. However, their leaky defense will be a problem against this red hot visiting club that is on a long unbeaten run! Per our computer math model, a 2-2 draw here has good probability as well as solid probability for a 3-2 final. That being said, the over is the play in this one. We will take the over here.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - We have played against the Fever in a few games early this season, knowing they were overvalued with rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark on the roster. Today we switch gears and bet their Under. Indiana has the worst defensive Net rating in the league, but they’ve faced Connecticut and New York twice each who are the two best offenses in the WNBA. The Storm are last in the league in offensive Net rating and score just 77.5PPG. The 0-4 Fever catch the Storm in a difficult travel situation. Seattle is 1-3 SU and coming off a 3-game East coast trip and most recently played in New York on the 20th in the second night of a back-to-back. Seattle was expected to be much better this season with the additions of Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike but they haven’t gelled as a team. Not to mention, Ogwumike has been out with an injury and is listed as questionable again tonight. What Seattle does well is play defense. The Storm are giving up 83.5PPG which is 9th most, but they have the 3rd best defensive Net rating. The Fever have had their own struggles offensively with the 11th worst offensive Net rating at 92.0. We don’t see these two teams getting into the 80’s and will bet the UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 206.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We are in the minority on the Under here, but we don’t see these two teams getting to 200+ points. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. They faced the Suns and Nuggets in the playoffs who were both top 9 in offensive efficiency ratings this season and still allowed just 1.095PPP. Minnesota was locked in defensively against the Nuggets in 4 of the seven games in that series, holding Denver to 99 or less points. In three of those games, they limited the Nuggets to 90 or less points. Minnesota is also playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. Dallas is coming off two series against the Clippers and Thunder who both ranked top 4 during the regular season in offensive efficiency. Minnesota was 16th in OEFF during the regular season. Game 1’s of the Conference Finals that have this low of a posted total have stayed Under in 4 of the last five. We like UNDER here.

#203805/203806 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals – ADO Den Hag vs Excelsior Rotterdam, Wednesday at 12:45 ET - This one is in the Eredivisie playoffs to see who will be in the top league in the Netherlands next season. That means Excelsior Rotterdam is fighting for survival in the league while ADO Den Hag is looking for promotion after already winning in this post-season just to get to this point. Even though Excelsior Rotterdam is the stronger team overall, ADO Den Hag is favored at home here. The home field edge and current form has a lot to do with that but we expect the visitors to score well here but also concede a couple goals as well. Excelsior Rotterdam allowed 2 goals per game in the regular season. Per our computer math model, a 2-2 draw here has good probability as well as solid probability for a 3-2 final. That being said, the over is the play in this one. We will take the over here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

#920 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Angels rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday in a 9-7 win.  The Astros were 9-2 last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss.  Houston is 3-0 L3 games when they are coming off a loss.  The Angels are 0-3 L3 games when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  Los Angeles is starting Griffin Canning here and he is 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA when pitching on the road this season.  The Astros are starting Cristan Javier here and he is 3-0 with an 0.75 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season.  Javier is 33-18 with a 3.55 ERA in his MLB career.  The Angels continued their big success (7-2 YTD) against left-handed starters with yesterday's upset win.  However, LA is 12-27 against right-handed starters this season.  The Astros have the bullpen edge here as well with an ERA ranking middle of MLB while the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the major league.  Houston is hitting .274 in home games this season and that ranks at the top of the majors!  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -105 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA WNBA play on OVER 169 Dallas Wings at Atlanta Dream, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - This is a rematch from last season’s playoff meeting when the Wings eliminated the Dream 2-1 in the postseason. In the first two regular season meetings these two teams produced total points of 163 and 158. Late in the season and in the playoffs, they combined for 171, 176 and 175 total points. We are betting the late season trend from a year ago carries over here. Atlanta has played in two higher scoring games to start the season, both Overs, while scoring 92 and 85 points offensively. The Dream have the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the WNBA and best overall EFG% at 52.6%. Defensively you will find the Dream in the bottom half of the league in defensive Net rating at 101.8. Atlanta is right around league average in pace of play. Dallas is 1-1 on O/U’s this season with a pair of games against the Chicago Sky. In the season opener the Wings put up 87 points on 45% shooting overall and 33% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 they managed only 74 points on 35% shooting overall, but the good news is they made seven 3-pointers. The Wings are the 2nd fastest paced team in the WNBA currently after being the 3rd fastest a season ago. Dallas had the 3rd best offensive Net rating a season ago but were bottom of the league in defensive Net rating. The oddsmakers opened this line too low and it was immediately bet up to the current number, but there is still value with an Over wager.

#208061/208062 ASA PLAY ON Under 2 Goals – Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys, Tuesday at 7 ET - This one being played in Argentine Liga Profesional de Fútbol action. Velez Sarsfield has allowed only 4 goals in 7 matches at home while Newell's Old Boys have allowed just 3 goals in 7 matches on the road.  This one absolutely has the makings of a 1-0 type of battle if even that. A scoreless draw has a shot here given the style of play each can be expected to employ here. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by a final score of 1-0 and we expect another one of those defensive gems to play out in this one Tuesday evening down in Argentina. We will take the under in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Connecticut Sun -4 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - These two teams met in the opener with the Sun favored by -6.5 points at home over the Fever. Connecticut won that game 92-71 on 48% shooting overall, 43% from the 3-point line, were +2 in rebounds and had 10 less turnovers. It's a small sample size but the Fever have the worse Defensive Net rating in the league at 115.9 and the worst overall Net rating of minus -28.7. Caitlyn Clark is obviously a very special talent offensively, but she hasn't improved the Fever's defense which was 11th of out twelve teams a year ago. The Sun were the 2nd best defensive team in the WNBA a year ago and currently rank 3rd in DNR at 90.8. Connecticut has a positive Net rating of +17.8, are 2-0 SU this season with wins of +19 and +7. The Sun were 14-6 SU on the road last season, the Fever were 6-14 SU at home. The Sun have now beaten this Indiana team 9 straight times with the three most recent coming by 16, 17 and 19-points. Lay it with the road favorite.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 3:30 PM ET - The value in this number is obvious as the last time these two teams met on this floor the O/U was set at 217.5. We are literally 10-full points lower now and will have to step in with an Over wager. One of these two teams has scored 116 or more points in every game of this series. We have had four games where one of the two put up 120 or more points. Even with one of the two getting blown out in a game they have still combined to score more than this O/U number in every game. They are attempting 173.5 field goals per game which is high by playoff standards. In fact, in the regular season the average FGA’s per game was slightly higher than 177 and those games averaged over 228 total points per game. New York is averaging nearly 112PPG in this series, the Pacers are averaging 112.8PPG. Both teams are shooting well with the Pacers making 51.5% of their shots overall, 40.9% from beyond the arc. New York is hitting 46.9% of their field goal attempts and 38.2% from Deep. Historically, Game 7’s are Under bets but this number has been over-adjusted and we like the value with an Over play.

ASA WNBA play on #616 Washington Mystics +5.5 vs Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - The Storm have underachieved this season with an 0-2 ATS record as they’ve been overpriced in both games this season. The Storm were favored by -7.5 points in the season opener and lost by 13 outright. In Game 2 of the season, they were favored by -1.5 at Minnesota and lost again by 9-points. Washington is the exact reverse. The Mystic are 0-2 SU but have covered both games of the season against two of the leagues better teams in New York and Connecticut. Washington played the Liberty extremely well in the season opener losing by just 5-points at home as a +11.5-point underdog. On Friday they traveled to Connecticut to face the Sun and lost by 7 as an 8-point pooch. Last season the Mystic beat this Storm team three times by +7, +6 and +7. The wrong team is favored here and we like the host to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 166.5 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - We are going to see a higher scoring game here between the Sky and Wings and like an Over wager on this WNBA game. These same two teams just met the other night on this floor and cashed an Over ticket for us when they combined for 166 total points. The O/U number on that game was 161.5 at closing so the oddsmaker have adjusted. But have they adjusted enough? Not according to our numbers. In the game on Wednesday night the Sky had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and made just 5 of 17 3-pointers. They did however attempt 74 field goals which is well over the league average of 68.3 a year ago. Dallas shot 45% as a team and 33% from Deep. They attempted 82 field goals so both teams were willing and able to get shots up. The Sky were 3rd in EFG% a year ago so we are betting they make more shots on Saturday. Not to mention, Dallas was a lower tier defensive net rating team last season. This was a very high scoring series a year ago with the two teams combining for 200, 193 and 182 total points in the three meetings. We know for sure the Wings want to get out in transition and push tempo as they averaged 98.21 possessions per game last season, 3rd most in the WNBA. Chicago was slower last season, ranking 8th in pace of play with 96.18 possessions per game. Both of these teams were below average in defensive net rating a season ago with the Sky at 103.5, the Wings right below them at 103.5. Dallas had the 3rd best offensive net rating a year ago, had the 3rd highest scoring average at 87.9PPG, but also gave up 84.9PPG, 9th most. We are betting the tempo is fast in this one and we easily get enough FG attempts to cash an Over!

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +1.5 vs Seattle Storm, 9:30 PM ET - These two teams met in Seattle in the season opener for each team and the Lynx came out on top 83-70 as a +7.5-point underdog. We like Minnesota to win again and don’t feel they should be the home dog here. The Lynx played an all-around good game in Seattle with the difference being their defense as they held the Storm to 37% shooting overall and 11% from beyond the arc. Minnesota shot 45% overall and made 7 of 24 3-pointers for 29%. The Storm were the last team in the WNBA in offensive Net rating and last in EFG% at 47.2%. Minnesota was better in terms of ONR last season than the Storm and slightly worse in defensive Net rating. The Lynx were respectable at home last season with a 9-11 SU record compared to the Storm who were 7-13 SU on the road. Seattle’s shooting woes in the first game of the season is a direct correlation to last year’s lack of shooting success as they were last in the league in team FG% at .410. Minnesota has beaten the Storm outright in 4 of the last five meetings overall and also cashed the money in 4 of five. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Lynx!

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are at home and off a home loss last night in a game they blew a late lead and lost in extra innings. It was a sloppy ending to an otherwise strong stretch of 3 straight wins over the Mets. Grabbing the Phillies off a loss has been a cash cow this season as the Phillies are 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, 16 of the last 20 Phillies wins have been by 2 or more runs! So Philadelphia is in a great bounce back spot and also likely to win big. The Nationals come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games and they have scored an average of only 1 run the 4 losses! Washington is hitting only .221 on the road this season which is 2nd to LAST in the NL as only the Marlins are hitting worse. The Phillies are hitting .264 in evening games which is 2nd only to the Dodgers in all of MLB this season! Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia here and he is coming off a rare tougher start but that was on the road and means bounce back time here! Wheeler has a 1.44 ERA in home games this season and has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 home starts while striking out 44 in 31 innings! The Nationals start Jake Irvin here and he has pitched better of late but he has had some tougher starts against stronger hitting teams. Above, we talked about the Phillies being second to only the Dodgers in team batting average in evening games this season. Well, LA got to Irvin for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings the last time he faced them. Also, Irvin gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings when the Phillies faced him earlier this season. Irvin was 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA last year in evening action in his rookie season. This year he also has a higher ERA in night games (4.86 ERA) than day games. The Nationals are just 6-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball and are in an 11-1 situation. Also, 16 of 22 Nationals losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and laying the 1.5 runs! Lay it for a Top Play!

#201282 ASA PLAY ON Fiorentina PK-130 over Napoli, Friday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-130 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Fiorentina but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Fiorentina has been the hotter team of late plus they have the home field edge here plus Napoli is going to be without star striker Viktor Osimhen. That hurts the attacking ability of the visitors in this one. Also, Fiorentina has been hot in Serie A action with a 3-1 last 4 games and only one loss last 5 games. Napoli has just one win last 10 games. Tremendous value with the goal line when you consider these numbers and the fact the fact the road team is without a key player they rely on when it comes to the attack! Take Fiorentina on Friday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets ML +115 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - When will the NBA be forced by legal sports betting to start disclosing injury news sooner? In Game 4 it was obviously a shock to everyone when Mike Conley didn’t play for the Wolves. His absence was key in the Wolves loss and it showed in the 2nd quarter when Minnesota turned it over 9 times. The Nuggets have made some great adjustments since the first two games and employed a double-team defensive scheme in Game 4 on Anthony Edwards. Denver simply told the Wolves that someone other than ANT needed to beat them and nobody on the T’Wolves roster responded. Consider this, the Nuggets had an offensive Net rating in the regular season of 119.1 which was 4th best in the league. The Wolves had one of the best defensive Net ratings at 109.9. In the last three games the Nuggets offensive Net rating is 121.4. Overshadowed by the Jokic/Nuggets offense has been solid defensive play that has held the Wolves to 90, 107 and 97 points in the past three games and has a defensive Net rating of 95.7. Anthony Edwards is incredible but even he can’t carry the entire scoring load for the Wolves and Karl Anthony Towns just doesn’t show up in big moments. It’s really hard to beat a team 4 times in a row but we expect Denver to end the series tonight.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7 vs Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Liberty and fade an over-valued Fever team with rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark. Clark and the Fever lost their opener against Connecticut (we were on the Suns in that game too) in blowout fashion 71-92. The Fever attempted only 50 field goals in the game compared to 66 for the Sun and they turned it over 25 times. New York is coming off a 5-point win at Washington but didn’t play well as they were favored by -11.5 and needed some 4th quarter magic from Laney-Hamilton to pull out the victory. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 6-14 SU at home, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition, but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Liberty allowed the fourth fewest PPG in the WNBA at 80.6PPG and had the 3rd best defensive Net rating. NY had the 2nd best Net rating in the WNBA at +10.3, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Liberty were one of only 4 teams in the league a year ago that had a positive scoring differential. New York’s average Margin of Victory was 2nd in the league at +8.6PPG and they won 17 of 20 road games. NY beat this Indiana team 4 times last season, all by 8+ points, 3 by double-digits. We like the Liberty big in this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.