ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it.  First of all, the situation is terrible for LA.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast.  Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks.  Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England.  HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well.  Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close.  He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick.  Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage.  Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier.  They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier.  Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked.  This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one.  Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center.  The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so.  Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically.  He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year.  Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games.  He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year.  Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG.  Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields.  In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less.  The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24.  They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG.  Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season.  They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less.  The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC.  The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent.  LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week.  In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week.  The Patriots get the home win and cover.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams.  Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th.  Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run.  That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas.  The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle.  Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC.  With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game.  LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning.  Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans.  They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close.  That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game.   If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team.  In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32.  They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG.  Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG.  This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers.  You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers.  Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points.  Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%).  Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one).  The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch.  On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands.  LA’s following is not great for home games.  Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win.

ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS).  Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion.  They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday.  It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half.  Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game.  It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record).  The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12.  We expect an all out effort on Saturday.  ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday.  The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game.  Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points.  In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal).  Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today.  The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record.   The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings.  Take the points with Stanford. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here.  Not only a loss but an embarrassing one.  The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite.  Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%.  Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers.  Really tough to overcome those two situations.  Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back.  They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road.  The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee.  They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd.  For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13.  Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia.  The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally).  The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage).  Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint.  The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here.  Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago.  We feel this one could turn into a blowout.

ASA NBA play on: OVER 226 Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET – We’ll first address, Giannis and the fact that he’s resting tonight. We’ve seen this a million times in our handicapping careers and other players relish the opportunity and will step up in his absence. The Bucks are deep team with four other players other than the Greek Freak averaging 12 or more points and 8 other scoring more than 5PPG. Milwaukee is the 3rd ranked offensive efficiency unit in the league averaging 1.137 points per possession. In their last five games with John Wall out of the lineup, the Wiz have been better in terms of OEFF averaging 1.128PPP. Washington seems to have better ball movement without Wall and players have a more defined role offensively. Most importantly, the Wiz are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA this season with an average of 101.6 possessions per game. The Bucks also like to play up-tempo with the 5th fastest paced offensive at 102.8 possessions per game. Both teams have shot it extremely well in their last five contests with the Bucks averaging over 51% as a team while the Wizards have shot over 47% as a team their last five. In their last five games the Bucks and their foes have averaged 231 total points. Washington has averaged 225 in their last five. We will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference game.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET

Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now.  After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games.  They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation.  That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team.  Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU.  They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara.  Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team.  They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175.  They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally).  That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot.  Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Nashville at Columbus, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Back-up goalies involved in this one. An unspecified incident involving Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has resulted in him not being with the team for tonight's game. That means Columbus will have Joonas Korpisalo between the pipes. The back-up netminder has an .872 save percentage in 7 home games (5 starts) this season. The over is 4-1 this season in Korpisalo's 5 home starts. The Predators are in the second game of a back to back and Pekka Rinne was in goal for the 4-3 OT win at Chicago last night. That means Juuse Saros gets the call here and the back-up goalie has an .892 save percentage in 11 road games (8 starts) this season. The over is 6-2 this season in Saros' 8 road starts. Overall, 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and, as you can see per the above, there is plenty of reason to believe this will be another one that flies over the total. The Blue Jackets are off a shutout loss at Tampa Bay but certainly deserved better in the goal-scoring department. Prior to that scoreless defeat, Columbus had scored 3.6 goals per game in their 7 prior games. Nashville certainly has their goal-scoring prowess shifted back into high gear again! The Preds have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 7 games. The over is 25-16-3 when the Predators enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games and Nashville is certainly hot again right now! Columbus is 9-5-2 to the over this season when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. With this total set at a 6 and both back-up goalies getting the starts, we're stepping in big on the high side of this total! Bet the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UConn -135 on Money Line over SMU, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

PLAY ON THE MONEY LINE - UConn is on a 3 game losing streak and because of that we feel we are getting some value with the home team.  Two of those losses came at the hand of top 35 teams Villanova & UCF.  The other loss was @ South Florida vs a team that is red hot right now winning 8 of their last 9.  UConn is 0-2 in the AAC and with their next 2 games coming @ Cincy & @ Tulsa so this becomes a must win game.  SMU steps into Gampel Pavilion tonight with a 2-0 record in the AAC, however they have faced the two lowest rated teams in the league (Tulane & ECU).  That seems to be a theme with the Mustangs as they have a solid record at 10-4, however they have played the 334th ranked strength of schedule.  They have faced just 3 teams in the top 100 this year and they have lost 2 of those games.  UConn has played the much tougher slate already facing the likes of Villanova, Iowa, Syracuse, Florida State, UCF, and Arizona.  The Huskies will win this one with pressure and defense.  They rank 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (SMU ranks 181st) and they create turnovers at a 23% rate (20th nationally).  Since December 1st SMU has played only 2 teams in the top 100 at creating turnovers.  ECU ranks 94th in that defensive category and TCU 93rd.  Versus those two opponents SMU turned the ball over 21% & 23% of their possessions which is very high.  Those two teams don’t compare to the UConn defense that ranks 20th in defensive turnover percentage so we expect the Mustangs to have problems handling the Huskies pressure tonight.  We have this year’s UConn team rated 75 spots higher than last year’s team.  We rated this year’s SMU team just a touch lower than last year’s squad.  Even with that, last year’s UConn team took care of SMU here winning 63-52 as a 6-point dog.  With SMU off a road win @ a bad ECU team and with big home games coming next week vs Tulsa & Houston, we feel they might be a big fat and happy at 2-0.  UConn will play as if this is the biggest game of their season and pull off the win

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition.  They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation.  Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally.  Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss.  You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday.  It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer.  It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins.  Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule.  Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire.  Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech.  This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season.  Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well.  Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas).  So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on.  Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF  THE WEEK

St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule.  They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home.  At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team.  Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points.  This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason.  They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire.  That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home.  The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season.  Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games.  Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA.  They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record.  St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month.  They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home.  The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team.  They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month.  St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting.  The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer.  They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here.  The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home.  Now this line sits near a pick-em.  While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year.  We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday.  Take St Bonaventure at home.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Colorado at Winnipeg, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league. These two hockey clubs also are two of the best teams in the league when it comes to the power play. As for the penalty kill, the Avalanche are one of the worst teams in the league. In goal tonight Colorado could have Semyon Varlamov back. However, this would be Varlamov's first start since the calendar hit 2019. Not only could there be some rust but also he is coming back from a lower body injury. That is a tough one for goalies as it effects their lateral movement in the crease and facing the high-powered Jets at Winnipeg is certainly not the ideal match-up for a recovering goalie. Should the Avs decided to stick with Philipp Grubauer, the netminder is off a strong start versus the Rangers but previously allowed 10 goals on just 73 shots in his 3 prior starts. That works out to a poor .863 save percentage. While the Avalanche goal-tending situation is a bit unsettled, they enter this game having scored 10 goals in their past two games. The Jets also can put up goals in a hurry and have scored 5 or more goals in 6 of their last 9 home games! Winnipeg's O/U is 8-3 this season after a divisional game and their O/U is 8-4 this season when they are off a win by a multiple goal margin. Colorado's O/U is 11-6 this season when they are on the road in a game with a total set at 6 or more goals. There is a big O/U of 6.5 set on this game but the firepower of both clubs, the extra rest for the Avs (off since Friday), and the fact the Jets have totaled 11 goals the last two times they've faced Colorado tells you why this game is set up to be a high-flying shootout! Bet the OVER tonight.

ASA 10Star play on: #509/510 UNDER 228.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – We will take the value and bet UNDER in tonight’s contest. Vegas was high on the opening number of 223.5 but it didn’t stop the bettors from pushing this line up with 71% of the money flowing in on the Over. These two teams met just a few weeks ago and the number was 221.5 so you can see for yourself we are getting 7-full points of value from that O/U. Minnesota won that previous meeting 114-112 with both teams shooting over 47.8% from the field. That number is higher than their season averages of 45.2%. The Thunder are the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing just 1.023 points per possession. The Wolves are 16th or league average allowing 1.101PPP. The T’Wolves are slightly above average in offensive efficiency at 1.106 points per possession while the Thunder are 20th at 1.079PPP. Nine of the last ten meetings between these two teams have ended with less points scored than tonight’s number and based on the efficiency numbers we should see a game with around 219 total points. Bet UNDER!

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday.  For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation.  ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons.  On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60.  It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury.  Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up.  They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12).  In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots.  They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81.  The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man.  It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not.  Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday.  Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining.  We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday.  We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday.  The value is with Baylor here.  They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State.  Now they are getting points.  The Bears pull the upset here.

ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74.  On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road.  Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st.  They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis.  They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120.  If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100.  Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State.  Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points.  They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November.  They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral).  Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season.  Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses.  Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense.  The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points.  We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home.  The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58.  Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers.  The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%).  The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games.  We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 43 Points- LA Chargers @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These two met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was Baltimore 22-10 landing well under this number.  The Raven defense held the Chargers to just 198 total yards on 3.7 YPP which was their lowest output of the season in any game.  LA put up big numbers at times vs lower tier defenses but weren’t great offensively when facing top notch defensive units.  In fact, in the 2nd half of the season the Chargers faced just 2 top 10 defenses (defensive efficiency) and they averaged just 16 PPG and 237 YPG.  In their final 2 games of the season they scored just 3 offensive TD’s total vs Denver & this Baltimore team.  Philip Rivers started the season on fire but down the stretch he fell off drastically with just 4 TD passes in his last 4 games.  He also had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings on the season in those final 4 games.  On the other side, we know Baltimore will run the ball which eats clock.  They have averaged 230 YPG and 45 rushes per game on the ground since Lamar Jackson took over at QB.  However their lowest numbers on the ground during that stretch were vs this Charger defense where they put up 159 yards on the ground.  With Jackson at QB, the Ravens have averaged 25 PPG, however in 5 of his 7 starts he’s faced defenses ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The only top 10 defense he’s faced his this Charger unit (ranked 8th) and the Baltimore offense scored only 16 points in that game as the Ravens defense contributed a long fumble return for a TD late in that game.  Windy conditions are on tap in Baltimore today (15 MPH) which will affect both passing games.  We have 2 top 10 defenses here (Baltimore 3rd in efficiency & LA 8th) and we expect a similar game to what we saw 2 weeks ago.  A grinder that goes UNDER this number.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late.  On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home.  The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month.  They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303).  Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1.  Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team.  The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21.  On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win.  Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough.  The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home.  After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday.  They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win.  The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games.  At home they allow only 39% for the season.  This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team.  Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now.  We feel SDSU is just the opposite.  Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena.  These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.

ASA play on: UNDER 225.5 Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:35PM ET

These are both top 10 teams in terms of defensive efficiency ratings as the Bucks (3rd) allow just 1.041 points per possession while the Raptors give up just 1.076PPP. Sticking with the defensive theme here the Bucks have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency FG percentage at 50% while the Raptors are 8th at 50.8%. We also love the scheduling dynamics here with the Raptors coming off a loss a few nights ago where they gave up 125 to San Antonio so expect a much better effort on the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks meanwhile are coming off a game last night versus the Hawks where they put up 144 points so don’t expect a repeat performance from that anomaly. Milwaukee and their opponents have averaged 216 total points per game when the Bucks played the previous night.  The Bucks have faced some bad defenses lately in the Knicks, Hawks and Nets so this will be a different level of intensity against the Raptors. When these two teams last met on December 9th they combined for just 203 total points. We expect a very similar game to that last encounter and predict just 210 total points. The Under is 6-2 the last eight meetings between these foes on this court. Bet UNDER.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Over 48 Points - Indianapolis @ Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

This one sets up to be a shootout as both team’s strengths offensively are each other’s weakness defensively. We expect both teams to come out throwing which will lead to a higher scoring game. In the two meetings this year Luck had 103 pass attempts for 863 yards and 6 TDs. Watson had 80 attempts for 642 yards and 3 TD’s. Looking at the season averages, opponents completed 65% of their passing attempts versus Houston (18th worst). The Colts were worse yet, allowing foes to complete 70% of their attempts (31st). That ties into the Texans ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game while the Colts are 16th.  That’s bad news for both team’s defensive unit’s as the Texan’s big play passing game averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt (7th), while the Colts average 278 passing yards per game (6th). In the two games this season these two teams averaged 850 combined yards and totaled 45 and 71 total points. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined 45 points, BUT they didn’t score on five separate trips to the red zone (Indy 3, Hou 2). Based on the average yardage in those two games and both teams’ yards per point offense, both average 14.3YPPT (8th and 10th best) this game should see 59 total points being scored.  BET OVER!

ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Talk about a team flying under the radar.  San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home.  Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California.  Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday.  Tight losses vs very good teams.  UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year.  Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia.  The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense).  They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG.  The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season.  The Gaels are down this year.  They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team.  The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season).  They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games.  St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team.  San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely.  The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center.  They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well.  This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON St Louis over Washington, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET

On the surface this looks like a prime spot to take the Capitals. After all, they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions, they've dominated the Blues in recent years, and Vladimir Tarasenko is dealing with an illness. However, the key to the value is what is not apparent to casual observers. St Louis recently welcomed back Robby Fabbri (often plays on 2nd line) and Alex Pietrangelo (a top 2 defenseman). Additionally, the Blues activated Carl Gunnarsson (top 6 defenseman) off injured reserve yesterday. As you can see, the Blues are coming back close to full strength now and those are key players they are getting back. Also, Tarasenko is unlikely to miss this game when one considers it is a shot at the defending Stanley Cup Champs. Also St Louis has had two days off leading into this one. The Capitals are in the front end of a back to back as they are in Dallas tomorrow night. That is the same Stars team that beat the Caps in DC earlier this season. So unlike this game against the Blues, tomorrow's game is a big revenge game for Washington. As for tonight's game, it is St Louis that is highly motivated by revenge. More on that in a moment. From a statistical standpoint, note that the Blues have allowed 2 goals or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Capitals have scored an average of only 2.7 goals their last 6 games as Alex Ovechkin is in a scoring slump. These teams last met on April 2nd in St Louis and the Capitals win over the Blues ended up being a key defeat that cost St Louis a playoff spot as they eventually lost the final spot to the Avalanche and that defeat against the Caps was part of their collapse over the final week of the season. Thursday it is payback time. Bet the BLUES on the money line tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 130 Points - Texas @ Kansas State, Wed at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU

We had our eye on the UNDER in this one before the spreads were released hoping it would be higher than what we thought it should be.   The total opened 123.5 and our numbers said 126 so while we did like it, the value wasn’t quite there.  Now the total has risen all the way to 130 and it’s time for us to jump on the UNDER.  These are two great defensive teams with KSU ranking 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and Texas ranks 10th in the same category.  The Wildcat defense has not allowed an opponent to reach 60 points in 5 straight games dating back to December 1st.  Nine of their 12 opponents have been held to 59 points or less.  Texas has allowed just 3 of their 12 opponents to top 70 points (in regulation) so we fully expect this game to be played in the 60’s or lower.  The offenses will have a lot to do with that as well as neither is very good.  Both rank below 100th in adjusted efficiency offense and both rank below 220th in eFG%.  Neither team shoots the 3 well with KSU hitting 31% (270th nationally) and Texas making just 32% (250th nationally).  Neither team gets to the line very often and when they do they struggle with the Cats making just 63% and the Horns hitting 66%.  These two Big 12 rivals have combined to play 24 games so far this year with only 7 going OVER the total.  KSU is now 23-9-1 to the UNDER their last 33 games.  Not only that, this has been a very low scoring series with 10 of the last 11 meetings going UNDER the total.  The average total score the last 10 meetings in this series is just 124 and only ONE of the last 10 games has topped 133 points.  As we said, now that this total is in the 130 point range (some 129.5’s and some 130.5’s) we like the value with the UNDER.

ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -9 over Georgetown, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

We expect a huge bounce back from the Bulldogs as they come off their worst loss since 1994.  Butler traveled to Florida on Saturday, a team they had already beaten this year, and the Gators went off winning 77-43.  It was the perfect storm with the motivated Gators shooting lights out at home (53%) and the normally solid shooting Bulldogs hitting just 30%.  After outrebounding Florida in their other meeting this year, Butler was destroyed to the tune of 43-14 on the boards.  No effort whatsoever from the Bulldogs which is not the norm for this team.  Their coach Lavell Jordan and every player on this team was embarrassed following that effort on Saturday.  While they are just 2-4 in games away from home (away/neutral) the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 at home at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they face Georgetown tonight.  Hinkle provides one of the best home court advantages in college basketball and Butler has won 60 of their last 72 games here.  They catch a G’Town team that has a solid 10-3 record but has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation this year ranking 313th in SOS.  The Hoyas have played only 3 top 100 teams this year and they are 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming over #77 Liberty.  They have also not been away from home in almost a month with their last road game coming on December 8th.  On top of that the Hoyas look like they will not be at 100% for this one with leading scorer Mac McClung and starting forward Trey Mourning may both be out here.  McClung, a freshman averaging 13 PPG, was out last game due to an injured ankle or at least that was the story they went with.  He was not in the building for the game and there are rumors floating around that he may look to transfer.  Either way, not a great situation.  Mourning is still in concussion protocol.  Butler shoots it very well at home (51% overall & 40% from deep) with an average margin of victory at 17 points.  Facing a team that hasn’t been on the road in nearly a month & off their worst loss in 25 years, this one sets up for a potential Butler rout and we expect at least a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Johns -1.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

Love this spot for St Johns.  We went against the Red Storm on Saturday and came up one point short as they lost @ Seton Hall 76-74 as a 3-point dog.  We have to admit the Johnnies played much better than we thought they would.  They were 12-0 coming into the game but hadn’t played a great schedule and nearly all of their games had been at home.  They were taking on a Seton Hall team that had already beaten the likes of Kentucky & Maryland (on the road).  St Johns proves us wrong as they led on the road for nearly the entire game including holding a 10 point lead with just 6:00 remaining in the game.  In fact the Pirates largest lead of the game was just 2 points.  The way the game ended should have St Johns motivated here as they lost on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Red Storm is now back at home where they have an average margin of victory of 18 PPG shooting nearly 50% from the field while allowing just 39%.  Marquette has moved up the rankings all the way to #16 on the back of a 8 game winning streak.  They have been doing their damage at home as this team has not left Milwaukee since November 23rd!  They are just 1-2 in their 3 games away from home (away & neutral) and in their only true road game @ Indiana they Golden Eagles were rolled 96-73.  They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot (35% of their points) which can be tough to maintain on the road, especially when you’ve played at home for over a month straight.  Last year the Johnnies were favored by a similar number (-2) and won 86-78.  They home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and there is a reason the unranked team (St Johns) is favored over the #16 team in the country.  Lay the small number.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER – Ohio State vs Washington, Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET - ROSE BOWL - Prior to their low-scoring win over the Utes in the PAC-12 Championship Game, the Huskies had scored at least 27 points in 8 of their 9 previous games. This included bad weather games too. As for this one, conditions should be ideal in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl Tuesday afternoon (2 pm local time). Santa Ana winds in Southern Cal are impacting New Year's Eve but will have subsided through the morning hours on New Years Day. Winds are expected to be near 10 miles per hour at kickoff with clear skies and temperatures near 60 degrees. With ideal weather, Washington should have no trouble putting up at least 27 points again here. Look for QB Jake Browning and the Huskies to take advantage of a Buckeyes defense that allowed an average of 266 passing yards per game their last 9 games of the season. In fact, looking at Ohio's State's last 6 games they only had one truly impressive defensive performance (versus Michigan State). In the Buckeyes other 5 games dating back to mid-October they allowed an average of 38.8 points per game. That includes 6 overtime points allowed in the Maryland game but even adjusting for that the Buckeyes allowed an average of 37.6 points in those 5 games. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points here as the Ohio State defense struggled as the season went on but, of course, they have an extremely potent offense! Another way to look at it is this way: With the total set at 57.5 and Ohio State -6.5 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 32-25 range. We like Buckeyes to score more than 32 and the Huskies to score more than 25. Washington State's last 3 games played with 2 or more weeks of rest between games have gone 3-0 to the OVER. In terms of additional technical support, the Huskies are also 3-0 to the over when they are a neutral field dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Ohio State is 6-2 to the over this season when off a win over a Big Ten foe. The Buckeyes big win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship wrapped up a season-ending 3-game run that saw Ohio State score an average of 53 points per game (50.7 ppg adjusting out the 7 points in the OT win versus the Terrapins). Considering all of the above, this should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here.

ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border.

ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West.  A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard.  We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2.  These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes.  KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game.  While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense.  It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland.  Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season.  The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals.  The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing.  They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season.  Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league.  They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games.  That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs.  This one will get ugly.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here.  We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game.  Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. 

ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight.

#253/254 ASA 10* CFB PLAY ON OVER – Alabama vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - ORANGE BOWL - Oklahoma ranks 102nd in total defense so this will be the 3rd worst defense Bama has faced this season. The two teams they played that are ranked lower in total defense were Ole Miss (116th) and Louisville (126th) and the Tide put up 62 & 51 points in those 2 games. As we go a bit further, Bama played a total of 4 teams this year ranked 75th or worse in total defense and they scored 65, 62, 57, and 51 points in those 4 games. We expect Alabama to put up similar numbers on Saturday vs a terrible Sooner defense that gave up big points to nearly everyone on their schedule. They allowed at least 33 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and allowed 40+ in 5 of those games. That includes a bad Kansas offense who scored 40 on this defense. The Okie defense will now face the BEST offense they’ve taken on this season as Bama ranks 2nd nationally in YPP putting up 7.6. Who ranks first in YPP offense? Oklahoma at 8.6 YPP. So while we expect Bama to run up huge numbers here, the Sooners will get theirs as well. The Tide have impressive defensive numbers but they haven’t faced an offense like this OU unit. The best offense Bama has faced in Georgia and they average a full 100 less per game than Oklahoma. Georgia scored 28 points and put up 450 yards on Bama. We think Oklahoma tops both of those numbers which should put this one over rather easily despite the high number. Look at it this way, with the total set at 77 and Bama -14 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 45-31 range. We like Bama to score more than 45 and Oklahoma to score more than 31. These two have combined to play 26 games this year and they are 19-6-1 to the OVER. This should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State +2 over Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

We felt the Ducks came into this season overvalued ranking in the top 20 in most pre-season polls and undeserved in our opinion.  They were a solid 23-13 a year ago but lost a number of key players and they are relying on young players this year.  More so in this game as they have lost a few key contributors as of late.  Starting forward Kenny Wooten was injured in their most recent game – a 10 point loss @ Baylor – and he is out.  Freshman and leading scorer Bol Bol has missed 3 games and they are not sure if he can come back from a foot problem here.  Even if he does, he won’t be 100%.  Starter Abu Kigab is also out with an injury for this game.  The Ducks will be relying here on a number of players who’ve seen very little action this year as their bench is ultra-thin due to the injuries.  As we discuss our thoughts on Boise, you’ll see they are the direct opposite of Oregon.  We feel the Broncos are undervalued due to their 5-7 record.  This team is talented.  They  return 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s team that was 23-9.  They also added one of the top JC transfers in the nation in RJ Williams who leads the Broncos in scoring at 15 PPG.  They’ve had a tough start with 7 of their 12 games coming away from home.  Four of their seven losses have come by 3 points or less and they’ve played some tough teams on the road including this Oregon team.  Yes this is a rematch from a game played on December 15th.  That game was in Eugene and the Ducks won 66-54 – a game that BSU shot just 35% while Oregon hit 49% of their shots.  The Ducks also got some home cookin’ and made 9 more FT’s.  Despite that, the game was close throughout with OU leading by single digits most of the 2nd half.  The Ducks have played 2 true road games this year and lost them both.  On the other side, Boise has a fantastic home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena where they are 34-5 SU their last 39!  Very rarely do we get Boise as a home dog and we love this spot.  The Broncos win outright at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play.

ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings.  The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.

ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.  

#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th.  Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP.  It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. 

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season.  After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT.  After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games.  Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs.  They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure.  Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie.  As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation.  Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright!  On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night).  Want more?  With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games.  Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion.  They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed.  That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season.  While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow.  The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3).  KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team.  We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. 

#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS

UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom).  That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses.  The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench.  They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points).  The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season.   Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team.  Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break.  OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago.  Ohio State won that game by 10 points.  The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense.  Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively.  On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation.  Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%.  Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago.  If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight.  They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule).  Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54).  All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points).  This team could easily have a much better record.   In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points.  Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings.  Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100.  That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points.  The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27.  They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites.  The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game.  Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally).  Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here.  Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record).  This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout.

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET

Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record.  However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU.  Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans.  When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated.  Their 5 wins have all come by double digits.  USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here.  USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are.  They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points.  Not overly impressive.  All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th).  Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen.  Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen.  USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team.  The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition.  USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game.  USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot.  They should roll in this one.

ASA play UNDER 209 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – With scoring up in the NBA this season it’s hard to bet an Under with a number as low as this one, but our predictive analytics say there is still value here. Based on current pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers we are predicting a Total here of 199. The Nuggets are without three of their top five scorers this season as Will Barton (16.5PPG), Gary Harris (16.6PPG) and Paul Millsap(13.6PPG) are all injured. That’s a lot of points that need to come from somewhere else. Denver is coming off a very low scoring game against the Raptors (181 total points) and we see that style of play continuing here. The Nuggets are 5th in DEFF ratings allowing just 1.050 points per possession. Dallas is nearly as good, ranking 9th overall in DEFF allowing only 1.074PPP. The Mavs are coming off a horrible defense showing versus the Kings, but prior to that game had allowed an average of just 97PPP their previous four games. Denver is the 4th slowest team in the league while Dallas has slowed considerably in their last five games. In the two meetings on this floor last year these two teams produced totals of 180 and 207, both Under wins, which will be the case again tonight.

ASA Play OVER 217.5 Portland Trailblazers @ L.A. Clippers, 10:30PM ET – We like to put ourselves on the same side as the oddsmakers which means the Over is the call here. What we mean by that is simple. This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams with the most recent being November 25th. The O/U number on the first meeting was 225 and then 227 just a few weeks ago. Both ended up staying Under the Totals, but the first game finished with 221 total points (enough for a win here) and the second ended with just 204 BUT both teams shot horribly. In the game a few weeks ago, in Portland, the Clippers shot just 42.2% on 90 FG attempts, while the Blazers shot 42 of 97 or 43.5%. The Blazers are 14th in the NBA in team field goal percentage at 45.6% while the Clippers are 9th at 46.6%, so both shot well below their season averages in the last meeting. These two teams are both 10th or higher in offensive efficiency, the Clippers are 9th in pace while the Blazers are 19th. Neither is great defensively either with Portland checking in with the 17th worst defensive efficiency numbers, the Clippers are 19th. The Clippers are coming off a lower scoring game against the Thunder but OKC is one of the slowest paced and best defensive teams in the NBA. Portland isn’t! We are literally getting 10-points of value from the last Total on these two teams’ game AND it’s lower than the league average. The bet here is OVER the Total.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic.  They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20.  At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23.  Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks.  Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road.  Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot.  Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard.  A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes.  Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents.  This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November.  In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion.  New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division.  However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks.  Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP.  Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP.  Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage.  Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season.  After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games.  Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP).  The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here.  We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over the Total - Vegas @ Columbus, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

The Blue Jackets have played well recently but have been stopped by strong goal-tending. Columbus has out-shot their opponents 114 to 77 in their last 3 games but lost 2 of 3. Look for the Blue Jackets to get a break tonight. If Marc-Andre Fluery starts again for the Golden Knights it will not only be a back to back spot, it will also be his 6th start in 10 days! This looks like a spot where back-up goalie Malcolm Subban, whom will be very rusty from a dearth of playing time, is very likely to get the start. Subban = plenty of rust and Fluery = needing of rest. The point is that, either way, Columbus is likely to have a huge night the way they've been putting pucks on net of late. The issue for the Blue Jackets here is that the Golden Knights like to play fast and Vegas has certainly "found their game" again in recent weeks. The Golden Knights have won 10 of their last 13 games and they've scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 11 games. Vegas is 8-2-1 to the over in those 11 games. In their two games against Columbus (both last season) the Golden Knights got 38 shots on goal in each game. The Blue Jackets enter this game having averaged 38 shots on goal per game their last 3 games. The point is that this match-up should prove to be quite the battle of firepower with plenty of shots on goal in a non-conference match-up with the lamps being lit early and often in this one! Take the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team.  The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later.  ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74.  The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining.  They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes.  It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort.  Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas.  Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead.  They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th.  While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest.  Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%.  They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State.  These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch.  ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season.  We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC.  The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play.     

ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Colts.  Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week.  That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week.  Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense.  The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot.  They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker.  Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week.  Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here.  In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons.  The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins.  Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion.  Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run.  They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed.  If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble.  If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening.  We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week.  Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well.  So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season.  The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown.  We’ll lay the field goal

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL?  Baltimore?  Maybe Chicago?  Nope.  The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP.  That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least.  The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7.  They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG.  Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play.  That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense.  The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards.  Three turnovers were the key in that game.  The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards!  They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards.  This team is undervalued right now because of that.  QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games!  The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball.  While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games.  The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game.  Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them.  Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season).  It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility.  The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today.  Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it.  The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons.  They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season.  The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule.  They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st.  That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion.  They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive.  The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11.  Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor.  Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season.  The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73).  Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS).  They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th).  They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court).  Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games.  They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally).  They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally.  The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s.  This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits.

ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.

ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 128.5 points - College of Charleston @ VCU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

We used the UNDER when VCU traveled to Texas recently and cashed easily on that game.  We expect to do just that again here.  The Rams are a fabulous defensive team ranking 8th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in defensive eFG%.  They have held 6 of their 10 opponents under 60 points and two others reached just 61 points.  As good as they are defensively, VCU is a poor offensive team.  They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation (28%) and their eFG% ranks 315th nationally.  They win with defense and that’s how they play.  Much of their offense comes off turnovers, however Charleston won’t let that happen as they turn the ball over just 14% of the time ranking them 9th nationally.  As bad as VCU is from deep, C of C is worse making only 27% of their 3’s ranking them 323rd nationally.  We won’t get much scoring from deep here to say the least.  As we stated in our write up on the VCU-Texas Under, many feel the Rams are a fast paced team because they press but that is not the case.  The rank 190th in adjusted tempo.  Charleston loves to play slow as they are 330th in adjusted tempo (out of 351 teams).  A slow paced game, with two below average offenses, and solid defenses leads to a low scoring affair.  UNDER is the play.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 168.5 Points - UW Green Bay @ Creighton, Friday at 9:00 PM ET

These are two of the faster paced teams in the country and neither play defense at a high level.  There won’t be much in the way of half court offense in this game.  UWGB ranks 9th nationally in adjusted tempo while Creighton ranks 85th.  Remember those numbers are based on the tempo they’ve played vs their opponents and many of their opponents like to play slow.  Creighton has already played 7 opponents who rank below 200 in adjusted tempo so those teams are trying to slow the game down when the play the Blue Jays.  UWGB has played 3 opponents ranked 175 or lower in adjusted tempo.  The point being, the numbers, as fast as they are, tend to be skewed as they do play slower paced teams.  With both wanting up tempo tonight, this game should have a ton of possessions.  Defensively these teams are not very good.  Creighton ranks 283rd nationally in eFG% defense while UWGB ranks 223rd in the same category.  Offensively, the Jays rank #1 nationally in eFG% and the Phoenix aren’t bad in that area hitting over 51%.  Creighton just played Nebraska over the weekend, a team that is great defensively and is slow paced and they totaled 169 points.  The Blue Jays have scored at least 87 points in 5 of their last 6 games.  UWGB has scored at least 82 points in 7 of their 10 games.  The Phoenix have played 2 teams this year ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and those games totaled 192 and 175 points.  Creighton has played only one team ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and that game totaled 195.  This one should be a shootout and we’re on the OVER.

ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.

ASA Under 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET – The number our math model has come up on this game is 213 and we agree. This game features the 3rd (Indiana) and 4th (Milwaukee) best defensive efficiency units in the NBA and the number is only slightly lower than the league average. In their last five games both teams have turned up the defensive intensity even more as the Bucks allow just 1.005 points per possession while the Pacers allow .968PPP. The Pacers have allowed an average of just 97.8PPG their last five game, the Bucks have allowed 104.8PPG. Milwaukee has also struggled with their shooting in their last five games as they’ve averaged just 43.9% from the field which is drastically less than the 47.8% season average. Indiana averages less than 100 possessions per game at home this season and they’ll dictate tempo here. The Under is 5-2 the L7 meetings. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over: Detroit @ Washington, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Capitals could get TJ Oshie back tonight. Even if they don't, Washington's production on offense has already been on a surge and they're going to take advantage of a Red Wings team that is in a back to back spot. Detroit did win 3-1 last night but they allowed 43 shots on goal and now may have to go with their back-up goalie tonight since it is a B2B situation. Washington has won 9 of its last 11 games thanks in large part to averaging 4.2 goals per game during this hot streak. The Red Wings last two games have been rather low-scoring (total of 5 goals in 2 games scored by Detroit) but, prior to this they had scored 4 or more goals in 5 of their 6 previous games. Those 6 games went 5-1 to the over and the Red Wings are 10-5-1 to the over in their last 16 road games with a total set at 6 goals or more. The Capitals are 3-0 to the over this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 previous games on the road. Only 7 of the last 21 meetings between these teams in the nation's capital have resulted in an under. Plenty of goals again in this one! Bet the OVER at Washington tonight.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern.  The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance.  That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally.  Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability.  The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle.  Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally.  They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8.  UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense.  Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories.  The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier.  The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70.  For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th.  GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation.  Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets.  They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win.  The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here.  Add another spread win to the ledger tonight.  Take UCF.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 47 Points - Carolina @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both teams are coming off misleading finals last week and played in games that stayed below the posted totals. The Browns were in Houston last week and their game ended with just 42 total points. The Texans put up 29 but the Browns managed just 13. Cleveland racked up 428 total yards of offense but missed on several scoring opportunities with key turnovers. Had the Browns averaged their normal yards per point (16.3) in that game they would’ve scored 26 points. The Cleveland defense has gotten steadily worse as the year has gone on as they gave up less 20PPG average in their first three games but have now allowed over 28PPG their last seven games. Cleveland’s offense has moved the ball in their last four games with 388 yards, 427, 342 and 428 total yards. Carolina has the 27th ranked yards per points allowed defense at 13.8YPPT and is giving up 26PPG. The Panthers are coming off a deceiving game last week with just 17 points against the Bucs. Cam Newton threw 4 costly interceptions, including one in the redzone while the Bucs fumbled once going into score. Both had key penalties that cost them TD’s instead of field goals or that game would have been much higher scoring. The Panthers have a top 10 efficiency offense that averages 25.3PPG and 14.9YPPT. Look for both offenses to rebound after poor showings a week ago which leads to a shootout. The numbers say OVER the total!

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day.  The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season.  They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year.  Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week.  It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch.  The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots.  However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc).  After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday.  This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot.  The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally).  Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep.  They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game.  In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win.  Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points.  The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year.  They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas.  This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 137 Points - Wisconsin @ Marquette, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

Being in Wisconsin we follow these two teams very closely and feel we are getting some value on the OVER here.  Marquette just played Kansas State a week ago and that total was set the same as this one.  Based on the numbers, it shouldn’t be the same, this one should be higher.  That’s because Wisconsin and KSU are very similar defensively (13th and 5th in defensive efficiency respectively) but the Badgers are far better than the Cats in almost every category.  KSU & Marquette scored 154 total points in that game and we expect these two to reach into the 140’s at minimum.  Last year’s total in this game was set at 141 and Wisconsin was nowhere near as good offensively and the two totaled 145 points.  While Wisconsin still plays slow, they push a bit more than past years and their offensive production is being overlooked here.  They rank 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 12th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  And that’s facing a tough schedule having already played 7 top 100 teams (16th most difficult strength of schedule thus far).  Marquette’s defense looks improved but they have allowed 70+ points vs every top 100 team they’ve played this year (4).  The offense is good just as it was last year with solid shooters all over the court.  The only 2 teams to hold Marquette to less than 70 points were Kansas (4th in defensive efficiency) who held them to 68 and UMBC in the first game of the year which was a blowout so Marquette called off the dogs (Won 67-42).  We have 2 very good shooting teams in this game and while the defenses will have their moments, we expect both to push into the 70’s in this game so the OVER is the play.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70.  Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower.  This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them.  They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT.  Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far.  They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year.  The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th.  Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%).  Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home.  We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home.  With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Minnesota @ Edmonton, Friday at 9:05 PM ET

Even though this is a back to back spot for the Wild it is set up very well. Minnesota used their back-up goalie last night at Calgary so that Devan Dubnyk would get the start tonight at Edmonton. Dubnyk was originally drafted by the Oilers and he is 3-1-0 with a 1.24 GAA and a .947 save percentage in his four road starts against the Oilers since he came to the Wild from the Coyotes in 2015. Overall, the Oilers have struggled badly when hosting the Wild as Edmonton has won just 2 of their last 16 meetings with Minnesota north of the border! Even though this is a back to back for the Wild, they've gone 4-1 this season when in the 2nd game of a back to back. Of course coming off a shutout loss adds to the motivation factor here so the Wild will surely be ready to go here. The Oilers rallied late to tie the game at St Louis Wednesday and then they won in the shootout so they are off a fortunate win. Also, Edmonton has lost 13 of their last 19 Friday games. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 when they are off a game which they lost by a double digit margin. Bet the WILD on the money line tonight.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home.  Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much.  The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6.  The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB.  They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span.  The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP.  Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG).  Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting.  That’s going to be very tough in our opinion.  The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles.  He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him.  That’s the recipe for success again tonight.  Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win.  Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6).  Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different.  If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4.  The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom.  They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5).  Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers.  They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena.  Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits.  Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams.  Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen.  They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th.  Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus.  The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant.  We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games.  Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner.  Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster.  Lay it with Purdue.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 137 Points - VCU @ Texas, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

VCU likes to pressure full court but they are not an overly fast paced team as most tend to think.  They rank 143rd nationally in adjusted tempo and Texas ranks 152nd in the same category.  So both are near the middle of the pack in college basketball when it comes to tempo.  Where both are near the best in college basketball is on the defensive end of the court.  The Horns rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency and VCU ranks 19th.  The Rams also rank 3rd nationally in eFG% defense and also 3rd nationally at defending the 3-point line.  We expect both teams to struggle from deep in this one as neither shoots the 3 well (30% for Texas & 29% for VCU).  Not only do these teams struggle to score from deep, neither are very good shooting teams in general with both sitting at 47% for their eFG% which ranks them around 250th nationally.  Both have problems at the FT line as well with each hitting only 65% of their freebies.  Only one team this season has topped 61 points vs VCU in regulation and that was St Johns who’s one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and 26th nationally in offensive efficiency.  Only two teams have topped 70 points this year on Texas and those were Michigan State & North Carolina who are ranked 4th & 6th nationally in offensive efficiency which is far superior offensively to VCU (ranked 239th in offensive efficiency).  Both defense are far ahead of the offenses in this one and while this total opened 133, it has jumped to 137 which gives us some value on the UNDER.    

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Tampa Bay @ Detroit, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Lightning are still without injured goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. That is why back-up Louis Dominque has started 11 straight games. However, this is a back-to-back situation (the first during this stretch) and that means the Bolts are in a predicament here. Do they let Dominque start again (he was in goal for last night's win at New Jersey) or do they give the start to Eddie Pasquale? The latter option would mean a journeyman who has spent most of his career in the minors would be getting the start. The former option would mean a goalie not use to going back to back would be doing it plus it would be complicated by the fact that both starts were on the road. Either way we are confident this opens the door for the Red Wings to have a successful night in the offensive zone. The key to the over though is that Detroit is very unlikely to stop this red hot Lightning offensive machine. Tampa Bay has scored 5 goals in 3 straight games and, incredibly, the Lightning have now scored 4 or more goals in 13 of their last 16 games! The over is 9-4-2 in Tampa Bay's last 15 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 this season when the Bolts re plying the 2nd game of a back to back. The Red Wings are off a shutout loss but the over was 3-0 in their 3 prior games as they averaged scoring 4.3 goals per game in those 3 games. The Lightning have scored average of 4 goals per game in their last 3 games against Detroit! We look for the lamp to be lit early and often in this one. Take the OVER tonight.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far.  Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena.  The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season.  They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS.  Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site.  The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense.  They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation).  That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally).  No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot.  The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home.  Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden.   Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot.  We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season.  Lay the small number with Oklahoma.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for Wisconsin.  They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game.  Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season.  That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville.  We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog.  These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected.  With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away.  On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers.  The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents.  They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency.  This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5).  Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction.  They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago.  The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin.  UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory.  Rutgers plus the points here.

ASA play OVER 210.5 Cavaliers @ Nets, 7:35PM ET - Our math model projects 216 total points and we couldn’t agree more. Let’s not forget what the rule changes have done to the NBA right now as scoring is up dramatically at 221PPG. Last year on this date the average total points scored in the league was 211. Granted these are two of the worst teams in the league but they are also two of the worst defensively. The Cavs are dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions at 1.148 while the Nets are 23rd allowing 1.116PPP. Cleveland is coming off three very low scoring games against OKC, Boston and Toronto but those are three of the best defensive teams in the league. With PG George Hill back in the lineup expect the Cavs scoring numbers to go up. Brooklyn’s home games have averaged nearly 230 total points per contest and we expect both teams to score here. Bet OVER!

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR

We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos.  The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road.  On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win.  With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances.  They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one.  Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score.  Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game.  We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation.  Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now.  They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG.  Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points.  The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders.  Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year.  In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits.  LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here.  Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot.  The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center.  We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Minnesota @ New England, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

There is some value on the OVER in this game in our opinion.  Simply looking back at recent games and recent opponents you’ll see what we mean.  Last week Minnesota played Green Bay and the total was 48.  The two teams scored 21 points in the first 16:00 minutes and had 28 at half.  They both blew some opportunities in the 2nd half and it stayed UNDER.  Three weeks ago Minnesota played Detroit (who ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency) and that total was 47.5.  Now they play a New England team that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency and just 19th in defensive efficiency yet the total is very near the same as the Vikings game vs Detroit.  Now let’s look at the Patriot recent schedule.  They played Tennessee a few weeks ago who is solid defensively but ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and that total was set at 47.  Last week the Patriots game vs the Jets had a total of 46.5 despite the fact the Jets had scored just 17, 10, 6, and 10 points leading into last week’s game where they scored just 13.  Minnesota is MUCH better offensively than both of those teams yet this total is set just a few points higher.  The Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game but one this year.  New England has put up at least 25 points in 8 of their 11 games and at home they’ve scored 27, 38, 38, 43, and 31 points.  Contributing to this low total is the fact the Pats have gone UNDER in 4 straight games and Minnesota has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4.  Now the oddsmakers have over adjusted for BOTH of these teams and the value is on the OVER.  Rain is a possibility on Sunday in Boston, however light winds are in the forecast which is key.  Both offenses should move the ball in this one and we take the OVER.

#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET

After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville.  MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT.  Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28.  So how did they lose?  The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line.  Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss.  They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday.  That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day.  It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year.  One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns.  MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season.  Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games.  Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively.  Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season.  Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game.  The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits.  MSU off a loss is a solid play here.

ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!

ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly.  This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd).  They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer.  Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th.  That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win.  Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent.  They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court.  Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier.  They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16.  Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games.  They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency.  Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend.  They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball.  UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one.  As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home.  The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over the Total - Pittsburgh @ Winnipeg, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Penguins recently got Sidney Crosby back. The Jets, thanks to a red hot Patrik Laine (as well as his entire line being on fire), are also "fully loaded" when it comes to potency in terms of goal-scoring. Ever since Winnipeg had the two game series with Florida in Laine's native Finland to begin this month, the Jets have been a different team. 8 of Winnipeg's 10 games this month have totaled at least 6 goals. The Jets are scoring an average of 3.9 goals per game this month. Winnipeg has given up 4.3 goals per game their last 4 games. The Penguins have scored 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in its last 3 road games. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Penguins and Jets including 4 of the last 5 played in Winnipeg! These are two of the top power play teams in the league as Pittsburgh is converting on 25% of their power play opportunities and Winnipeg is converting at a 30.4% rate with the man advantage this season! Also, on the road the Penguins are 38% and at home the Jets are 39%. These are phenomenal numbers and Winnipeg had the best home record in the NHL last season and Pittsburgh has had multiple Stanley Cup championships in recent seasons. This one should be quite the battle of firepower with the lamps being lit early and often in this one! Take the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON - Under 138.5 Points - Memphis vs College of Charleston, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

Two bad shooting teams lead to an UNDER play in this game.  Memphis ranks 275th nationally in eFG% (46.6%) while Charleston ranks 221st (49%).  Worse yet, these are two of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation which will make it very tough to get to this total.  The Tigers make just 26% of their 3’s (332nd nationally) and C of C makes only 24% (339th nationally).  Memphis likes to play fast if they can however the Cougars are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and when that is the case the slow team usually gets the tempo they want.  Since their first two games vs inferior opponents, Charleston has cashed 4 straight UNDERS and they have not topped 128 points in any of those games.  Memphis has had a few higher scoring games this year, however those we versus teams that shoot the ball very well (LSU & Oklahoma State) and like to play fast as well.  The Tigers most recent game on Friday against Canisius was 71-63 and we look for similar result here.  This game is on a neutral site in Orlando and each team will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here which won’t help their shooting woes.  Take the UNDER here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week.  They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16.  That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs.  Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted.  Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week.  Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle.  They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston.  The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980.  On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents.  These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games.  We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses.  The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit.  Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion.  These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4.  Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above.  That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be.  The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year.  They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road.  Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points.  Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions.  Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit).  When they’ve had to play better teams away from  home, they’ve lost.  These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those.  We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip.  It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away.  In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago.  CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on.  Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be.  However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3.  The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado.  AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State).  Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally).  Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots.  They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win).  Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points).  Colorado gets the cover on the road here.

#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU.  They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog.  The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc.  ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers.  Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter.  However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs.  They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points.  We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game.  All of that and UNI still only won by a single point.  ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game.  Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points.  This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago.  They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot.  Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot.  They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games.  Lay it as Old Dominion rolls.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Brutal spot here for Chicago.  They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road.  Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start.  The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota.  If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB.  We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway.  His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road.  Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2.  They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game.  Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here.  All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth.  After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina.  They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago.  That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit.  So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU

This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get.  This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU.  Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros.  That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here.  First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup.  All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team.  The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years.  They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts.  It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run.  While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition.  Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points.  The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games.  They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season.  The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago.  San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ NY Knicks, 7:30PM ET - Some solid indicators here with the money and tickets chasing the Over, yet the line dipped 2 full points from the opener. Based on the pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers this game should result in 215 total points. Portland is average in pace of play or 15th in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game. New York is slower yet at 100 possessions per game which will continue to trend lower with Coach Fizdale running the show. Portland is one of the best DEFF teams in the league while the Knicks are one of the worst. The same can be said about the OEFF numbers as Portland is top 10 in the league, Knicks bottom 10. New York shoots under 43% at home this year and averages 106PPG. Portland has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Bucks and won’t be interested in playing an up-and-down game tonight and look to rest starters as much as possible. Last year when these two teams met they combined for 198 and 194 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 62.5 Points - Kansas City @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We realize this is a very high total (highest ever) but we think the OVER is the play here.  We like both teams to get into the 30’s tonight.  KC has scored at least 30 in 8 of their 10 games while the LA Rams have done the same.  The Chiefs and their opponents have scored at least 55 points in 6 of their 10 games this year.  The Rams and their opponents have scored at least 56 points in 6 of their 10 games.  These two teams lead the NFL in yards per play offense averaging a ridiculous 6.9 YPP.  KC has played 2 of the top 8 YPP offenses this year and those games resulted in 79 points (vs Pitt) and 66 points (vs Chargers).  The Rams have played 3 of the top 8 YPP offense this year and those games have resulted in 90 points (vs Saints), 58 points (vs Chargers), and 58 points (vs Packers).  Defensively neither of these teams are very good.  They both rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP.   Most might be tempted to lean under where the total is set so high but historically that has been a losing proposition.  In fact, since 2000 there have been 12 games with a total of 58 or higher and the OVER is 9-2-1 in those games.  The last two seasons there have been 3 games that have had a total of 58 or higher and the OVER cashed on all 3 of those.  Both teams push into the 30’s here and this one goes OVER.       

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY Over the total – Iowa State @ Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This total is well too low in our opinion. We had it projected in the mid 50’s and we’re getting a full TD+ less than that here. Part of the reason for the low number might be the recent history between these teams which has been low scoring. However, keep in mind neither of these coaches have been at the school very long (Herman in his 2nd year @ Texas & Campbell in his 3rd year @ ISU) so those historical numbers aren’t as important in our analysis. Last year Texas won this match up 17-7 and the year before it was Texas 27-6. Those totals were set at 62 & 69 respectively and now this one sits below 50 because of those two results. The ISU offense is much improved this year while the Texas defense is down allowing 420 YPG. We see no way that UT shuts down the Cyclone offense that has scored 48, 30, 40, 27, and 28 points their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense has allowed at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense did shut down TCU & KSU to 16 & 14 points respectively in their first two conference games but those are the 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 12 in scoring offense with the other being Kansas who Texas plays next weekend. Even with the poor offenses in play in those two games, the totals were BOTH set higher than this on (48.5 & 50). Herman has his offense humming in his 2nd year as head coach. They have scored at least 28 points in all but 2 games this year. They play fast averaging 76 plays per game which is 16th nationally. They are a tough offense to defend as they are very balanced. Iowa State’s overall defensive numbers are off in our mind. They played very well against weak offenses this year (Kansas & TCU) and have one outlier game where they shut down WVU’s offense to 14 points. That is not the norm for this team. It was just one of those games in our opinion. Last week it may look like they played great defensively holding a middle of the pack Baylor offense to just 14 points. Take a closer look. The Bears had over 500 yards of total offense but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside the ISU 15-yard line. That 28-14 final was very misleading as Baylor potentially left 20+ points off the board in that game. Even with that those two got to 42 points which isn’t far off this posted total. Offensively, ISU struggled early in the year but since switching to Brock Purdy at QB in early October. In his 5 starts the Cyclones are averaging 34 PPG and have not been held under 27 in any of those games. We also like the fact that ISU tends to play how their opponent plays. They can play fast or slow. They were in grinder, low-scoring games TCU & Kansas but vs teams that are similar in style to Texas (Okla St, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma) they were involved in high scoring games (90, 71, and 64 points scored respectively). In games they can get a lead and grind the offense they do that. In games where they have trouble slowing down the other team, which we feel they will here, they have to score to keep up and they do just that. We don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense in this game. Both teams have been quite efficient on a yards per point basis with Texas averaging 12.9 & ISU 13.7. The weather looks perfect in Austin with temps in the mid 60’s and light wins in the forecast at gametime. This one goes OVER this total easily.

#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers.  It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week.  Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel.  They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week.  That is as tough a schedule as you could map out.  Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season.  They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL.  Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31.  Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST!  Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL).  That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.  Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s.  It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s.  On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season).  Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights.  They are just 2-8 SU this year.  GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks.  Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above.  The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for the Packers.  They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots.  They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes.  The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL.  They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17.  The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game.  Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense.  The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG.  Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs.  They did not score an offensive TD.  With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion.  The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game.  Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games.  The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games.  All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points.  Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points.  The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team.  We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s.