ASA play on UNDER 168 Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30 PM ET - These two Western Conference contenders just met in Vegas on Wednesday night with the Lynx winning 98-87 as a 7-point dog. The game eclipsed the O/U number of 167.5. The first question you need to ask yourself is “why did the oddsmakers open this game with the same O/U when they just combined for 186 total points”? The total field goal attempts in that game was 135 which is below the league average of 137.4. The average total points scored in WNBA games this season is 163.4PPG. The reason for the higher output was insanely good shooting by the Lynx who hit 59% of their FG attempts (38/64) and made 11 of 19 3-pointers for 58%. Both of those numbers are well above the Lynx season averages of .46% oval and .39% from 3. Las Vegas shot above expectations too by going 33/71 from the field (46%) and 13 of 30 from Deep for 43%. Those numbers are unsustainable in this back-to-back setting between these two rivals. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the W in defensive efficiency allowing .956-points per possession. The Aces are 5th allowing 1.022PPP. Minnesota is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and will want to dictate tempo here on their home court. The last time these two teams met in Minny they produced just 146 total points. The Aces have stayed Under in 3 of their last four on the road. The Lynx have stayed Under in 7 of their last ten at home. In this quick rematch we like a defensive battle and low scoring game.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 23 of 31 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 27 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  Boston has won 6 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this 10-game stretch!  The Red Sox are off a 4-1 win but, prior to this, 20 of 29 Boston games reached double digits in runs scored and we expect a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Red Sox start Brayan Bello.  The right-hander has a 5.28 ERA at home this season with opponents hitting .286 against him there.  Arizona's Ryne Nelson is off of a quality start on the road but this followed allowing 4 earned runs and being hit hard in each of his two road starts prior to that one.  Both bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the league.  Also, these are 2 of the top 3 teams in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days.  Two hot lineups and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  9 of 12 games at Fenway Park since the A/S break totaled at least 10 runs and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here as that trend continues!  Over is the call in this one Friday night.

ASA play on UNDER 176.5 Dallas Wings at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is the second meeting between these two teams in consecutive games. New York won on Tuesday 94-74 as a 14-point favorite with the Under cashing as the game stayed below 171.5-points. Dallas shot 38% on 66 field goal attempts against a Liberty defense that is one of the best in the league. New York holds opponents to an average of 42% shooting and give up just 76.1PPG. The Wings are averaging 82PPG on the season and shoot .44%. New York is the most efficient offense in the W at 1.104-points per possession but they play at a slower tempo, averaging 78.3 possessions per game. Dallas is the worst defensive team in the league on the season with a Defensive Net Rating of 110.1. The Wings rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating and average 1.019-points per possession. The average number of field goal attempts per game in the W is 136.2. In the game on Tuesday these two teams combined for 140, slightly more than the league average. New York has a huge game on deck against Connecticut so expect them to go deeper into their bench and keep this game from turning into a shootout which favors the Wings. The Liberty have played 4 sets of back-to-backs against the same team and in three of those situations they scored less points in the second game. NY has a strong Over record this season at home, but most of those Totals were less than 170-points. In fact, the Liberty have had just to O/U’s this season on their home court of 170 or better and both have stayed Under.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8!  Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks.  But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home.  This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them.  Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch.  The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win.  Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound.  He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts.  Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6 at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - This matchup between the top two teams in the Western Conference promises to be a close one, likely decided by 5 points or less either way. Minnesota holds the edge in overall Net Rating at +8.2, compared to Las Vegas at +6.4. Defensively, the Lynx are superior, ranking 1st in Defensive Net Rating, while the Aces come in at 5th. Offensively, the Aces are 2nd in the WNBA, with the Lynx at 6th. Minnesota has excelled as an underdog this season, boasting a 7-3 record against the spread in that role. They’ve also won three consecutive games, giving them a 1.5-game lead over the Aces in the standings. With Collier back, the Lynx are significantly stronger than the team that struggled before the All-Star break. They are 7-5 SU on the road this season with a point differential of +4.6 PPG. Conversely, the Aces haven’t been a reliable bet this season, particularly against the spread, both at home (6-9 ATS) and overall (10-16 ATS). Last season, Las Vegas dominated at home with a 19-1 SU record and an average point differential of +17.6 PPG. However, this season they are just 9-6 SU at home with a much smaller average point differential of +4.5 PPG. While Vegas’ offense has seen improvement with Chelsea Gray back in action, I’m hesitant to expect a dominant win from the Aces, especially after their recent home loss to the New York Liberty, another top team. The Aces have already lost six home games this season, and clearly home-court advantage hasn’t provided the Aces with the edge it once did.

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +14.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Liberty who are off a HUGE win in Las Vegas and have a BIG game on deck against Connecticut. Meanwhile Dallas comes into this game off a blowout loss at home to the Sun and will be looking to play at a much higher level here. The Wings got some help with the return of Satou Sabally who has missed most of this season with an injury. Sabally averaged 18.6PPG last season and grabbed over 8-rebounds per game. The Liberty have faced the weakest schedule in the league this season, so their overall stats are skewed in their favor. The Wings by comparison have played the toughest schedule to date, hence their negative -8.2PPG differential. NY is 12-2 SU on the season but are 3-9 ATS at home as a favorite. The Wings have failed to cover as a double-digit dog in their last three games in that role but that was also without Sabally in the lineup. The Wings have covered 4 of the last six meetings dating back to the start of the 22 season. We like the situation and the dog here.

#916 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -155 over Minnesota Twins, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are off a loss and have not lost B2B games since mid-July. They were on a 20-4 run before yesterday's loss and are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off a loss.  With San Diego one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star break and coming off a loss and with Michael King on the mound, they should prove well worth the money line price in this one. King has been fantastic ever since his slow early season start. From May onward King has an 8-3 record with a 2.54 ERA.  The Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and he has made only one MLB start.  He moved up the minors fast and pitched quite well until he hit AAA ball where he went 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and got hit at an over .300 batting  average in his 4 starts.  That said, we are not going to put too much weight into his one MLB start which, by the way, was at home.  Matthews is a rookie making his first ever MLB road start.  While both teams were on the road yesterday, certainly it is the Padres that are happier to be here today in comparison with the Twins.  San Diego is happy to be back home while Minnesota is coming off that tough loss at Texas where they blew a 4-0 lead and eventually lost 6-5 in extra innings.  Now the Twins had to fly even further away from Minnesota and have this 3-game set in California before finally heading back home.  Minnesota is a solid team but is just 29-37 in games against teams with a winning record and they are on the road here and the Padres have the pitching edge.  The home team is the bet in this one.

ASA top play on Seattle Storm -2.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3:30 PM ET - The pace of play or tempo for this game should be fast as the Storm are the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 97.90 possessions per game, the Fever are 6th at 96.92. In terms of offense, Storm are 5th in O-Net rating, the Fever are 6th. Seattle is the more efficient team averaging 1.047-points per possession, Indiana checks in at 1.034PPP, both rank in the top half of the league. The big difference between these two teams is defensively. The Storm are 3rd in Defensive Net Rating (94), the Fever are second to last at 108.2. Indiana is 7-5 SU at home this season, but they do have a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. These two teams have met 3 times this season with the Storm winning all three and the last two came by 15 and 12-points. Seattle is off an upset loss in Atlanta, while the Fever just got a big win over Phoenix. We like the Storm to bounce back here.

#200029 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace +0.25 (-126) at Brentford, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Crystal Palace looks quite strong in terms of their starting 11 after the off-season changes they made. Brentford has a defense that is looking a bit depleted entering this one. The Bees are at home and are a tough club in their own right but we like the way this Crystal Palace club is headed and getting the +0.25 goal means we can still earn some cash even if this match ends in a draw here. Last season Crystal Palace had only 8 road losses in 19 road matches while Brentford had only 5 home wins in 19 home matches. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Crystal Palace on the goal line in this one.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 9:38 PM ET - The Braves expected to start Chris Sale in this one and the Angels are likely trotting out Griffin Canning to the mound for this one.  Sale is 13-3 with a 2.61 ERA this season.  Canning is 4-10 with a 5.11 ERA on the year.  Sale is off an outing in which he threw 7 scoreless innings on the road and he has now allowed a total of only 13 earned runs in his last 10 road starts!  Canning has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 starts.  In addition to the starting pitching edge here for Atlanta, the Braves are seeking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss yesterday here in Anaheim.  The Braves are now off B2B road losses but this followed wins in 8 of 11 away from home.  Atlanta has not lost more than 2 straight road games since two months ago - all the way back in the middle of June!  The Braves had scored 6.3 runs per game in their 8-3 run on the road prior to these B2B losses.  We look for them to bounce back strong here against Canning and the hosts will not be able to keep up.  This is an Angels team that has averaged only 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7 games.  Los Angeles is on a 5-9 run in home games and has scored only 2.4 runs per game in their last 9 games played here in Anaheim.  The Angels bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Braves bullpen ERA is among the top 3 teams in the majors!  The Braves are 22-13 in interleague action this season and 51 of their 64 wins on the season have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 31.5 Points - NY Jets at Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We were considering a play on the Panthers here, but decided the Over was the better option. We expect the Panthers to rally in Week 2 of the preseason after a humiliating loss in Week 1 to the Patriots. Carolina managed just 7 first downs, 151 total yards of offense and kicked a field goal with under 2 minutes to play for their only score. The Panthers brought in help for the offensive line and need to find some continuity with QB Bryce Young so expect more game action here for the starters. This team was horrendous last season, and it showed in W1 where they sat 33 starters, so reports are they are treating this game differently. In fact, several fights have broken out in the joint practices with the Jets this week. New York had a similar approach in their preseason opener by sitting most starters to evaluate rookies and reserves. The Jets won’t jeopardize QB Rodgers in the preseason, but they do have a viable option with vet Tyrod Taylor. Taylor played in just two series last week and should get more reps in W2. New York’s offense did manage 13 FD’s against the Commanders and 292-total yards of offense in scoring 20-points. This week they face a Panthers defense that gave up 16 FD’s and 274 yards to a lower-tier Patriots offense. The Jets defense gave up 17-points to a below average Washington offense last week and 331 total yards. There has been an over-adjustment to this O/U number based on the Panthers results last week. Preseason games involving a team that scored 10 or less points in the previous game are 79-57 to the Over in the past 13+ seasons. Those teams that struggled offensively have bounced back with 20+ PPG in their next game.

ASA top play on UNDER 160.5 Chicago Sky at LA Sparks, 5 PM ET - We will put our O/U hot streak on the line tonight with the Under in this WNBA East vs. West showdown between the Sky and Sparks. These are two of the worst offenses in the W with the Sky ranking 8th in Net Rating, the Sparks are 11th out of twelve teams. When it comes to points per 100 possessions the Sky average just 1.001PPP (9th), while the Sparks average .999PPP (10th). Neither team shoots well either with the Sky holding an EFG% of .457, the Sparks EFG% is .483, both in the bottom third of the league. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in Pace of play so we can expect a slow deliberate tempo by each team. Scoring is going to be especially difficult for both teams as they are missing several of their top scorers. LA is without 3 of their top seven scorers and will have a tough time reaching their season average of 79PPG. Chicago is without Chennedy Carter (illness) who is leading their team in scoring at 17.2PPG and recently traded away Mabrey who was scoring 14.1PPG. Chicago is averaging 79.3PPG on the year and our model has them scoring less than that in this game. The only other meeting between these two teams was back in May but they only managed 156 points in that game. Bet UNDER here.

#200005/200006 ASA PLAY ON Under 3.5 Goals – Ipswich Town vs Liverpool, Saturday at 7:30 AM ET - Goals likely tough to come by. Just like we saw in last night's Premier League opener - a 1-0 final on a late goal - we could be in for another similar battle here. Ipswich Town is just back up to the Premier League after 2 decades in the lower levels. They are thrilled, they are at home and they are well-managed. Ipswich Town will have a good game plan in place to hang around in this one and keep the match tight and hard-fought. Liverpool has a new manager now and we expect some early season growing pains and the club also does not look at potent as it did in recent seasons when you look at this roster. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from the host leading to a rather tight game with fewer scoring chances than one might expect if this match was in mid-season. We will take the under in this one.

ASA top play on OVER 161 Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings, 9:30 PM ET - The Wings do one thing really well and that’s give up points. Dallas allows 89.7PPG on the season with opponents shooting .471% against them. They allow 1.120-points per possession which is also the most in the league. The Wings get destroyed in the paint by opponents, allowing 42.1PPG in the lane which is +5.5 more points than the 11th ranked team in the W. The Sun are the 3rd most efficient offense in the WNBA at 1.059-points per possession and score 37.4PPG in the paint. The Sun have one of the best defenses in the league, but they are missing Carrington who is their best perimeter defender. That’s not great news for the Sun considering they must stop PG Ogunbowale, the Wings best player, who is averaging 22.25PPG, 3rd most in the league. Connecticut will get a boost offensively with the addition of Marina Mabrey who comes over from the Sky and is averaging 14PPG. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and will need to score in transition against this Sun defense. The Sun are going to score no matter against a Wings defense that has allowed over 90-points in 7 of their last ten games. The bet here is OVER!

#966 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.65 ERA this season and a 3.30 ERA in his career.  One also sees Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie, with a 5.14 ERA this season!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Astros, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers.  Arrighetti has been pitching like a phenom of late while Crochet is dealing with a major stretch of struggles!  The Astros Arrighetti has been charged with only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in his last 5 starts and these have covered 31 innings on the mound!  Also, Arrighetti has struck out 33 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts!  Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 6 starts and has averaged 3 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  About these teams, the Astros have won 8 straight games and have soared to 1st place in the NL West.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 2 wins in 28 games and also are 11-49 on the road this season.  The Astros wins this season have featured 80% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 68 of 93 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox in this one.  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 158 - Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - We expect both teams to be a bit rusty offensively after the Olympic break and with a projected total field goal attempts of 160 we don’t see this game getting to 158+ points. These two teams met in early July and combined for 141 total points. There were 160 FGA’s in the game and both teams shot below 42%. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the league with a Defensive Net Rating of 93.7 while giving up 75.6PPG. The Lynx are also the second slowest paced team in the W at 94.79 possessions per game. The Lynx allow .951-points per possession. Offensively the Lynx average 1.028-points per possession which ranks them 7th out of 12 teams. Washington started the season 0-12, but have won 6 of their last seven games. They get three starters back from injury here and will be a better defensive team with the additions of Sykes, Samuelson and Austin. While the return of those players is great news for the Mystic it should also lead to an adjustment period offensively with the rest of the roster. The Mystic are already one of the worst offenses in the league averaging just .998PPP and 79.3PPG. Washington is 9th in the W in shooting at 43%, 10th in made FG’s and 9th in field goal attempts per game. Minnesota is average in several offensive key categories and won’t put up a big number here against a Mystics defense that should be better with key players returning. We like UNDER here.

#969 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -115 over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 6:50 PM ET - Houston has won 7 straight games and the Rays have already dropped the first two games of this series following the tight win over Baltimore Sunday.  Before that win Sunday Tampa Bay had lost 6 of 9 games and they had scored an average of only 3 runs per game in their 10 games since the end of July.  Now 12 games into August they are still averaging only 2.75 runs scored per game in these dozen games.  TB is going to struggle against Ronel Blanco here in this one.  Blanco is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in his road starts this season.  Also, overall on the year, opponents are hitting a paltry .183 against the offerings of Blanco.  The right-hander certainly gives the Astros the edge on the mound over the Rays and Zack Littell.  The Tampa Bay right-hander has gone 5-8 this season and opponents are hitting .287 against him on the year.  He just got hit hard again for the 3rd time in 6 starts.  These two teams just met recently in Houston and Littell and Blanco squared off in that series and TB prevailed.  Blanco had 7 strikeouts compared to just 3 for Littell and it was a bit of a tough luck loss for Blanco and Houston.  We expect this to be payback for that one as the Astros are heating up once again.  Houston has won 7 straight games and 8 of last 9 road games.  In those 9 games away from home, the Astros have scored an average of 6 runs per game.  The road team is the bet in this one.

ASA play on UNDER 38 Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 1 PM ET - We expect a low scoring game between these two teams and feel this number of 37 won’t be threatened. The Broncos made the decision to go young at QB and dumped veteran Russell Wilson in the offseason. They drafted Bo Nix and brought in Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. In this preseason opener we doubt the play calling will be very aggressive, nor do we expect many explosive plays from this Bronco’s offense. Denver was one of the slowest paced teams in the league a year ago and also ranked 25th in Yards Per Play. The Broncos were below average in the regular season in points per game, ranking 20th at 21PPG. The Colts’ future and hopes lies with 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson was hurt early last season after a solid start, but Indy got a solid season from Gardner Minshew who threw for over 3,300 total yards with 15 TD’s to 9 INT’s. Minshew is gone so the Colts brought in an insurance policy in Joe Flacco to go along with Sam Ehlinger and Kedon Slovis. Indianapolis hasn’t named a starter yet for this preseason game, but indications are Ehlinger and Slovis will get plenty of looks. The Colts had solid offensive numbers from last season but that was with improved play from Minshew who is now gone. Denver’s defense allowed 1-point for every 15.3-yards gained which was 17th in the NFL. The Colts gave up just 5.2 Yards Per Play a season ago which ranked 15th. We don’t expect much from either offense and the average defenses should hold up well against unproven QB’s. NFLx games with a Total of 37 or more points that features conference opponents stay Under at a 67% rate dating back 9 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this one.

#200242 ASA PLAY ON Sheffield Wednesday over Plymouth Argyle, Sunday at 11 AM ET - This one in League Championship action in England which is just one level below the English Premier League. We follow the EPL closely so we follow the clubs in the level just below as well. For example, clubs like Luton and Burnley that are playing each other on Monday were each in EPL last season. In terms of this match Sunday, Sheffield Wednesday impressed us with their offseason acquisitions. As for Plymouth Argyle, many including us, were surprised by the manager move to Wayne Rooney. He did not impress in the managerial role at Birmingham City. This Plymouth Argyle club just not have quite the level of talent that the hosts have here. Also, Sheffield Wednesday did have 8 home wins last season while Plymouth Argyle had only 3 road wins last season but 13 road losses! Yes a draw is a loss here but that is why the hosts are priced at only -120 here and that is a great value the way we see it. Look for a solid home win here based on all of the above. Also, the hosts played a tougher preseason schedule too and that has them ready here! Take Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday in late morning action.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - These teams played a double-header yesterday and that puts some extra stress on bullpens.  This is particularly true in this case because in the first game yesterday neither starter was able to make it out of the 5th inning.  Also, the Guardians have been losing but their games continue to see plenty of runs.  In fact, Cleveland is 2-7 in August and 7 of the 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs!  The Guardians enter this game losers in 7 straight games and Gavin Williams is unlikely to turn that around.  Williams is off a tough start and if you look at 3 of his last 4 starts he has given up 12 earned runs in 14 innings spanning 3 of the 4 starts.  The Twins, unlike the Guardians, have won 7 of 9 games.  Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in this 9-game stretch!  13 of their 19 games since the All-Star break have reached at least 9 runs.  Also, Simeon Woods Richardson is expected to get the start here and he has struggled some in his last two starts and that includes the most recent one even though it was against the White Sox!  Woods Richardson has allowed 9 earned runs in 7.1 innings over his last two starts!  We like the value here given all of the above as well as the high-scoring trending of Guardians games and Twins games plus the metrics based on this expected pitching match-up.  Over is the call in this one Saturday evening.

#114 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Commanders will be sending rookie QB Daniels under center to start on Saturday and we expect him to have big problems vs this Jets defense.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Thursday in New York and the NY defense dominated as we expected.  Daniels was 7 of 15 passing but all of his completions were screens and check downs.  It’s been reported that he had only 25 yards passing on those 7 completions.  Washington’s offensive line is not a strong point (ranked 19th per PFF) and they are banged up on top of that.  Three potential starters sat out Thursday’s joint practice and most likely won’t play on Saturday.  That’s bad news vs a Jets defensive line that is talented and deep (ranked #1 per PFF).  We look for Washington’s offense to struggle big time on Saturday vs this deep NY defense.  On the other side the Jets sat QB Rodgers for the joint practice on Thursday and they still moved the ball well on the Commanders defense with veteran Tyrod Taylor at the helm.  Rodgers won’t play in this game on Saturday but Taylor, who has over 12,000 career passing yards, should get lots of run with 3rd string QB Travis out with an injury.  Jets head coach Saleh has been a successful pre-season coach with a 6-3 overall record including a perfect 3-0 in his first NFLX game each season.  The Jets are the better overall team and much stronger on both lines of scrimmage.  We’ll take NY at home on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday, 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game we will discuss is the QB rotations for both teams. Depth is critical in NFLx games, and the deeper teams have a clear advantage later in the game. The Texans are the clear-cut choice here when it comes to QB depth. Texans will start and play CJ Stroud and the other starters into the 1st quarter. They will then turn over the QB duties to Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. Davis/Keenum have a combined 114 career NFL games under center, including several starts. Tim Boyle has even played in 20 games dating back to 2019. In the shortened action in the preseason HOF opener the 3 Texan QB’s combined to go 19/27 for 197 passing yards with 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The Steelers have a QB battle going on in camp, but Russell Wilson will not play in this game and HC Tomlin says Justin Fields won’t start and will only see limited action. Pittsburgh was in the bottom ten teams in the league in Offensive total yards while managing just 17.9PPG which ranked 28th. Houston on the other hand was 12th in total yards gained last season while putting up 22.2PPG. The Texans hold the advantage defensively here too as they gave up 330.7YPG a year ago versus the Steelers who allowed 342.1YPG. We like the aspect of the Texans having live game experience under their belt after the Hall of Fame game while the Steelers are just getting started. We will lay the points with Houston.

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Under 33.5 Points – Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This game is going to be a battle of inexperienced QB’s and we project both teams will have problems scoring points.  Carolina head coach Canales has already said that starting QB Bryce Young will not play and back up Andy Dalton is out due to an injury.  That means the Panthers will be going with rookie QB Jack Plummer (from Louisville) to start followed by Jake Luton.  Plummer is an undrafted rookie and Luton has just 2 TD’s in his 110 career attempts to go along with 6 interceptions.  They’ll be facing a New England team whose strength is their defense which finished in the top 6 in both YPG and YPP allowed last season.  Offensively the Patriots will use a heavy dose of rookies Drake Maye and Joe Milton at QB.  Jacoby Brissett will open the season as the starter but he took the vast majority of the reps in Tuesday’s practice which actually indicates he’ll see very little if any time on Thursday night.  Maye & Milton are still learning the offense and have been up & down in camp as to be expected.  They’ll be working behind an offensive line that from all reports hasn’t looked great in camp which will make it extra tough on the young QB’s.  Both teams were near the bottom of the NFL offensively last year tying for dead last in scoring at 13.9 PPG, they were 30th and 32nd in total offense, and 29th and 32nd in YPP offense.  Both teams are dealing with new offensive schemes as well (both have new OC’s) which isn’t ideal out of the gate.  Defenses dominate on Thursday night in a low scoring game.

#952 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -140 over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have a significant situational pitching edge here with Charlie Morton over Frankie Montas in this one.  Before we get into that, yes the Braves have lost 4 straight games but this followed wins in 6 of 7. The Brewers entered this series having lost 4 of 5 and 6 of 9.  Montas allowed only 3 earned runs in his debut with Milwaukee last week but he only went 5 innings in that start and allowed 9 hits in the shaky outing.  Overall he has struggled of late as Montas compiled a 7.71 ERA in the month of July for the Reds.  Making this spot even tougher for him is his final start of July was here in Atlanta and he gave up 10 hits in 4.1 innings!  The Braves Morton has a 3.00 ERA in his 11 home starts this season.  He has been particularly strong in recent months in his home starts as he has allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 6 home starts!  Morton has given up only 23 hits and 4 earned runs in 35.2 innings!  Yes he has a 1.01 ERA in his last 6 home starts.  We like the value of the home team here off of 4 straight losses and with the starting pitching edge.  It is strengthened by the fact that Atlanta had been the hotter team than the Brewers over the past week or so prior to this series.  We do not see them getting swept here at home.  The host is the bet in this one.

#972 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners Luis Castillo has a 2.82 ERA at home this season. He is off a fantastic July in which he went 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Seattle was off yesterday after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Phillies Sunday. The Mariners will be ready to bounce back off that loss here and had won 6 of 8 games before that loss. The Tigers have lost 9 of 12 games and scored only 2.8 runs a game in these dozen games. Detroit starter Keider Montero has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 4 starts and had allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings before being charged with 4 earned runs in his most recent one. The rookie is 1-5 this season and opponents have hit .298 against him on the road this season. This one is set up well for the Mariners to roll big at home. The Tigers are off a 1-run loss but this followed a stretch where each of their 6 losses came by a minimum margin of 4 runs! We will lay the 1.5 runs here with confidence. The Mariners most recent win was by 1 run but this followed a stretch where each of their 9 victories prior to that one were by 2 or more runs. Lay the run line in this one!

#970 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Royals -125 over Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Royals have a significant pitching edge here with Seth Lugo over Brayan Bello in this one.  Lugo is 13-5 this season with opponents hitting only .217 against him. Lugo has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of last 9 starts and allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in those 7 strong starts!  Bello had an 8.25 ERA in June and had a 4.97 ERA over his last 5 starts in July.  Boston is off B2B wins but has not won more than 2 in a row since early July.  Prior to these back to back wins, the Red Sox had lost 9 of 14 games. Kansas City had won 15 of 22 games prior to yesterday's 9-5 loss to the Red Sox.  Kansas City is 36-23 this season in home games.  We like the value of the home team here off a loss and with the starting pitching edge.  It is strengthened by the fact that KC had been the hotter team than the Red Sox in recent weeks entering this series.  The home team is the bet in this one.

#216554 ASA PLAY ON Guadalajara +0.25 goals (-125) over LA Galaxy, Sunday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available at +0.25 in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-125 range) and we like the value with this as a draw is what Guadalajara needs to advance to the knockout stages. As for Los Angeles, they are already guaranteed of advancing. So this one sets up nicely for a rather disinterested LA club to go through the motions and Guadalajara can play a safe game as well and play for the draw. We do expect Guadalajara to do enough to get the win here but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. Once Guadalajara gets that first one (we just can not see LA scoring first given the metrics for this one), they can really settle in and play a game characterized by a defensive-first mentality the rest of the way as they then look to just protect the lead in this one. We just do not see LA pushing the tempo too much in this one and the hungry underdog manages to at least get the much-needed draw here even if this one becomes a drab 0-0 or perhaps 1-1 affair. We will take Guadalajara on the goal line in this one.

#216526 ASA PLAY ON Monterrey PK (-145) over Pumas, Saturday at 10 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-145 range) and we like the value with this as a draw would then become a push. We do expect Monterrey to get the win but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. We just can not see Pumas getting an upset here. Once Monterrey gets that first one, look for the floodgates to open up for them in this one. We are getting line value here because Monterrey has underachieved recently but now all the chips are on the table and we look for this to bring out the best in them here. They have more talent and better attacking talent than Pumas and this will show up on the pitch in this one now that it is do or die time. This is when the elite stars shine! We will take Monterrey in this one.

#974 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge. The Astros have lost 3 straight games but are a perfect 3-0 since mid-May when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3+ games.  Houston was on a 43-25 run prior to this 3-game losing streak and we look for them to bounce right back here.  The Astros are starting Framber Valdez here and he is 5-2 at home this season.  He had a tough May but since then has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts.  The Pirates are starting Jake Woodford here.  He performed well on a minor-league contract after previously pitching with the White Sox earlier this season.  The trouble is, just like his starts earlier this season with the White Sox, Woodford has not performed well at the MLB level.  Woodford had a 10.80 ERA earlier this season for Chicago.  Also, last season for St Louis, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA in 15 games (8 starts).  Opponents hit .314 against him last season with the Cardinals and he got hit hard with the White Sox earlier this season too.  Now his debut with the Pirates and we expect his struggles to resume at the MLB level.  47 of 55 Houston wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  18 of 26 Pittsburgh road losses by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#216478 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles (-170) over Vancouver, Tuesday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. Los Angeles comes in red hot, particularly in home matches. Vancouver comes in on a little cold streak including getting embarrassed at home by Wrexham in friendly action! Los Angeles has not only won 9 of last 11 matches at home, they have scored at least 3 goals in all 9 wins! We just do not see Vancouver being able to keep up in this one. Once LA gets that first one, look for the floodgates to open up for them in this one. Just like we successfully did in an LA 3-0 win over Club Tijuana in this competitions, we will take Los Angeles again in this one.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins look to respond off yesterday's 15-2 loss.  While we are forecasting a much better night of hitting for Minnesota in this one, we also expect the Mets to pound the ball yet again.  The Twins had won 4 of 6 before that loss yesterday and they had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their first 8 games after the All-Star break.  Minnesota did have 9 hits last night but scored only 2 runs as they left 9 men on base in the game.  The Twins are facing lefty Sean Manaea here.  The Mets southpaw has been solid this season but he has allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 hit batters) in 9.2 innings spanning his two starts since the All-Star break.  Minnesota is hitting .276 against left-handed pitching this season and that is #1 in the majors!  As for Twins starter David Festa, he is off of a solid performance versus the Phillies but he did give up quite a few hard hit balls in that one.  He was solid from a strikeout standpoint but, considering the hard contact, he was fortunate more damage was not done.  Festa is a rookie and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings in his first two MLB starts.  His 3rd outing was a long relief effort against the Phillies.  We look for another tougher start (just like the first two) for Festa here on the road and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Though yesterday's game was admittedly an extremely fortunate win for those (including us) holding over tickets in Arizona (was 2-1 in top of 9th!) the fact is the Diamondbacks entered that contest continuing to trend toward high-scoring games here in July and we will take advantage of the rather low total of 9 posted on Monday's game.  Now it is the Nationals that Arizona is hosting rather than the Pirates and Washington, like the Diamondbacks, enter this game off a tough, tight loss as they gave up the deciding run in the bottom of the 9th of a 4-3 final.  Overall, Washington was on a 7-4 run before yesterday's loss and the Nationals averaged scoring 5.5 runs during that 11-game stretch.  We are confident the Nationals will resume their hot hitting here after a couple of huge games at the plate in St Louis before yesterday's loss. We also like how potent this Arizona lineup has been. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of 24 games and some big hitting games have certainly helped lead the way.  The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs per game on average during this 24-game stretch.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks 17th and Arizona's ranks 22nd so look for runs throughout this game as these starting pitchers are also likely to struggle!  Mitchell Parker gets the call for Washington and he is winless with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 starts this month.  He has a 4.91 ERA on the road this season.  Jordan Montgomery expected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one.  Montgomery has been getting hit hard at home all season long.  We are not exaggerating as he had one good start at home versus the major league worst White Sox this season but has been hit quite hard in every other home start this season.  He has a 7.82 ERA at home this season and opponents are hitting .355 against him in those starts. All signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one Monday night.

#216457/216458 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.75 Goals – Club Leon vs Portland, Sunday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup  action. Portland is an MLS team and 20 of their 25 matches in league action have totaled at least 3 goals! Interesting match-up as Club Leon seems down a few notches from prior years and Portland has the attacking ability to take advantage. The issue for Portland is a leaky backline and this is a chance for Club Leon to get back on track and take advantage. They have not lost to an MLS club in this competition in the past and Portland has not beaten a team from Mexico in this competition yet either. That said, Portland is the more in-form team while Club Leon is the more talented team. This combination, in our opinion, will absolutely translate to plenty of goals. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

#216418 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles (-160) over Club Tijuana, Friday at 11 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. Los Angeles comes in red hot, particularly in home matches. Club Tijuana is known for not having success in these competitions including when they are facing MLS competition. This will be the third appearance for Club Tijuana in this competition and they've yet to register a victory. Los Angeles has not only won 8 of last 10 matches at home, they have scored at least 3 goals in all 8 wins! We just do not see Club Tijuana being able to keep up in this one. Once LA gets that first one, look for the floodgates to open up for them in this one. We will take Los Angeles in this one.

#960 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - We have stayed away from this series after we got burned with a 1-run win in the first game of the series and we had the run line.  Laying the -1.5 runs on the run line to avoid laying big prices always carries with it the risk of getting burned by a 1-run win but we like our chances for a home blowout in the series finale here.  Texas is going for the sweep and Chicago has now lost 10 straight games!  Note that the White Sox have scored only 2 runs per game last 11 games and the last 10 games in this low-scoring stretch have all been losses.  56 of 77 Chicago losses this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Texas has scored 5 runs per game last 20 games and has won 11 of 15 games.  Rangers build off the momentum of 3 straight wins in this series punctuated by the huge 10-2 win yesterday.  We look for the Rangers to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  The starting pitching match-up is expected to be Max Scherzer versus Jonathan Cannon.  Scherzer is off a tougher start but it came against the league-best hitting Orioles.  Now he faces the league-worst hitting White Sox!  He takes advantage and dominates.  Scherzer is still getting back to full strength after missing time with injury but this is a guy who has dominated for many years and facing light-hitting Chicago will help him round back into top form!  As for Cannon, he is a rookie and is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his road starts and opponents hitting .313 against him away from home.  He catches the Rangers lineup confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday.  The surge continues here in a home blowout.  Lay it!

#925 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -130 over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Orioles lost yesterday here at Miami and it was unusual in that they failed to do damage against an opponents bullpen.  We doubt that will be repeated here.  Miami is 21-33 at home this season which is one of the worst home records in the league!  The Orioles are 30-18 on the road this season and also the Marlins are 23-43 against teams that have a record above .500 on the season.  Baltimore is one of the strongest teams in the majors and should bounce back here.  We have no hesitation in fading the Marlins off a win.  Since a 3-game winning streak back in mid-June, the Marlins have won B2B games only twice (including first game before A/S break and first game after A/S break).  In fact, the Marlins have gone 2-8 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a win!  We get line value here because the Orioles have a rookie hurler going in this one.  Chayce McDermott has a 3.96 ERA at the AAA level this season and he is facing a Marlins team that has a .357 slugging percentage which is dead last in the National League.  By the way, the Orioles slugging percentage is .452 which is the #1 out of all 30 MLB teams!  The Orioles should get to Edward Cabrera here.  He is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA this season.  He has a WHIP of 1.80 since he returned from injury this month and he continues to struggle here against a tough Orioles lineup.  The road team is the bet in this one.  Lay it!

#977/978 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 10-4 Royals win and we look for another high-scoring game here. Kansas City is running hot after the All-Star break with 4 straight wins and they've scored 6.8 runs per victory in this stretch!  Going further back, KC has won 8 of 10 games and scored 6.1 runs a game during this hot stretch.  The Diamondbacks are off B2B losses but this followed a 12-5 stretch in which Arizona scored 6.5 runs per game during the last 14 games of that.  Their bats should resume the hot-hitting ways here as they face Alec Marsch of the Royals.  The Kansas City right-hander had a 5.68 ERA in 6 starts last month.  Now this month he has a 7.20 ERA in 3 appearances (2 starts).  Marsh's struggles continue here but he should get plenty of run support as well.  Not only are the Royals bats hot, they can take advantage of a struggling Jordan Montgomery who is also coming off the 15-day DL after dealing with a knee injury.  The Dbacks southpaw has allowed 26 earned runs in his last 25.1 innings dating back to late May.  In terms of bullpen ERA, the Diamondbacks are ranked 21st and the Royals are ranked 20th.  We like all the key elements to this one and our computer math model shows the highest probability of 11 to 12 runs.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

#208053/208054 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals +105 – Talleres Cordoba at Velez Sarsfield, Sunday at 7 ET - This one being played in Argentine Primera Division action.Talleres has one of the best attacks in the league and they score 1.84 goals per game which is a great average for this league. Defensively they are not as sound and that is part of the reason their road games have averaged 3 goals this season. Velez Sarsfield scores and allows 1 goal per game which is typical in this lower-scoring league. What tips this one in favor of plenty of scoring is that Talleres has been so strong on the road and they also are in strong current form. They will likely force the pace of this contest and we look that to result in plenty of scoring chances both ways. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

#209889/209890 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals +110 – San Jose at Minnesota, Saturday at 8:30 ET - This one being played in MLS action. San Jose has allowed more goals than any other team in the league this season with an average allowed of 2.5 goals. SJ has been playing a bit better recently but we see them resuming their defensive struggles after surprisingly holding Houston to 1 goal Wednesday - we lost our play here as a result that day. We get it back tonight! Minnesota is in bounce back mode as they have struggled for an extended stretch now. They are still the much better team in comparison with San Jose but Minnesota is dealing with both injury issues and a suspension that is impacting their defense tremendously. The defensive issues are a big part of the reason they have endured a winless streak. Minnesota still has great scoring ability all over the pitch but they can't stop teams. Minnesota wants to take advantage of facing the last place team as a chance to get back into the win column. However, the defensive issues for the hosts will allow the equally desperate visitors the chance to hang around in this game and we expect they will do just that! Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 3-2 or 3-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

#208009 ASA PLAY ON Independiente PK +110 over Instituto, Thursday at 8 ET - This one in  Argentine Primera Division action. This is a value spot for Independiente on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK +110 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Independiente but it is definitely nice to have that added value with this line. Independiente has gone undefeated in the last 5 meetings between these clubs with 3 wins and 2 draws. They have been the much better club from a defensive standpoint and, amazingly, have allowed only 3 goals in their 9 road matches this season! Instituto, on the other hand, has scored better than their opponents in this match but they have also allowed 1.3 goals per match when at home this season. We get excellent line value here with the better defensive team that also has owned this series in recent seasons. We expect a solid Independiente win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Independiente Thursday evening.

#209837/209838 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals – San Jose vs Houston, Wednesday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in MLS action. San Jose has allowed more goals than any other team in the league this season with an average of 2.5 goals. SJ is at home here and has been playing a bit better recently but we see them continuing to have defensive struggles against a Houston team that is in bounce back mode and has scored an average of 1.5 goals when on the road this season. Houston is off a draw and a loss and wants to take advantage of facing the last place team as a chance to get back in the win column. 5 Houston matches in a row have totaled at least 3 goals and the last 4 have totaled 4 goals. San Jose has scored in B2B games but is off a 2-1 loss. They almost always struggle to stop teams. Each of the last 5 meetings have totaled 3 or more goals and these 5 totaled 21 goals. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 176.5 Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - Examining recent results for both teams we see each is playing at an above average tempo and possessions are up for both teams. The Wings are averaging 98.64 possessions per game in their last ten games, the Fever are averaging 97.20 possessions per game which rank these teams 1st and 3rd fastest in the W. Defense isn’t a strength for either team as they rank 11th and 12th in the league in Defensive Net Rating and points allowed per game with the Fever giving up 86.7PPG, the Wings allow 89.6PPG. Indiana allows foes to hit 44.3% of their shots (9th worst) while the Wings defensive FG% is last in the league at 46.8%. Despite their struggles defensively, both teams rank 7th and 8th in Offensive Net Rating and each scores over 81PPG. Dallas has scored 81 or more points in 5 straight games and 84+ in four of those. Indiana has put up over 81 points in 4 straight games including two games against outstanding defenses of the Liberty and Lynx. Going into the break we expect both teams to put for a maximum effort here and predict a high scoring game in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 161.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 3:30 PM ET - Our model is projecting over 170 total points in this game between a pair of Western Conference rivals in the Storm and Sparks. Seattle is one of the faster paced teams in the W at 97.95 possessions per game and they will want to dictate tempo. The Sparks are in the bottom half of the league at 96.31 possessions per game, but they’ll be forced into trying to keep up, much like they did in the previous meeting. In mid-June these teams met in Seattle which resulted in 174 total points being scored. LA attempted 69 field goals in that game which is five more than their season average. Seattle will again put up a big number here against this Sparks defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% (45.3%) and 11th in 3PT% defense. The Sparks rank 10th in Defensive Net Rating this season at 105.4 but have been even worse in their last team game rating 108.3. Seattle has the 4thbest Offensive Net Rating on the season and rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency. The Storm have faced some of the league’s better defenses in recent games and have still averaged 84PPG over their last five games. Granted, it won’t be an easy task for the Sparks to score against a Storm defense that is one of the best in the league, but we just need them to get to 78-points which they’ve done in 7 of their last eight games. Bet this one OVER the Total!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 4 PM ET - The best defensive team in the WNBA is the Minnesota Lynx with a Defensive Net Rating of 92.7. They allow just .942-points per possession, also best in the league and 74.6PPG which is second fewest. The Fever are 10-14 SU on the season and have relied heavily on their offense to win games as their defense is one of the worst in the league. The reality though is that the Fever’s offense isn’t that great either ranking 7th in Offensive Net Rating while ranking 4th and 5th in FG% and 3PT%. They will have a tough time putting up points against this Lynx defense that holds opponents to 40.1% shooting overall (1st) and 28.7% 3PT% which is also best in the W. Minnesota has held 7 of their last 10 opponents to less than 79 points and in five of those games they allowed just 62-points or less. Indiana recently played the Liberty who are very similar statistically to this Lynx team and that game finished with 161 total points. The Lynx recently played the Mystic (similar to the Fever) and that game ended with 141 total points. We expect another low scoring game here

#235758 ASA PLAY ON Canada +1 goal -106 over Uruguay, Saturday at 8 ET - We are confident that Canada has a chance for a big dog win here but we will grab the 1 goal just in case. We faded Uruguay with Colombia and we got the win with Colombia as a big dog even after they were down to 10 men. Of course Canada is not at the level of Colombia but, keep in mind, Uruguay had high hopes in this tourney and were on the way until that loss. As for Canada they have played better than expected in this tournament and are happy to be playing for 3rd place! Uruguay is absolutely disappointed to be here and they are also short-handed for this one as they are missing some solid players for this one. The emotional letdown also could lead to a truly lackluster effort from the favorite in this one. We take advantage! Take Canada +1 goal on Saturday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 173 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 3:30 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 167 on May 26th and 153 on June 7th. In the most recent clash, the O/U number was 160.5 so you can see for yourself the drastic difference in today’s line. The over-correction by the oddsmakers is a result of the Wings recent defensive struggles in allowing 100+ points in 3 of their last four games. When you look specifically at those three games they were against the Aces and Sun who are two of the best offenses in the league. Today the Wings face a Sparks team that ranks 11th in Offensive Net Rating and score just 78.4PPG also 11th fewest in the W. On the subject of offense, the Wings aren’t much better than the Sparks, ranking 8th in ONR while scoring 81.1PPG. Los Angeles has scored 80 or less points in 8 of their last ten games and several of those games came against subpar defenses. In games involving the Wings this season the oddsmakers have posted an O/U number of 172 or higher 3 times and it was against the Sun and Aces, who as we mentioned are far superior offensively than the Sparks. The value is clearly on the UNDER in this game.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 175 Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Phoenix and combined to produce 170 total points as the Fever pulled the 88-82 upset. The Mercury shot below season standards (43.8%, 33.5%) at 40% FG% and 26% 3PT% in that game which is unlikely to happen again here. Phoenix has put up 104, 84 and 100 points in their last three games against Dallas and Los Angeles who rate very similar in terms of defense to the Fever. Indiana is 11th in PPG allowed at 87.3PPG, rank 9th in opponents FG% and are 11th in Defensive Net Rating. Indiana is getting better offensively as the season progresses with an overall Offensive Net Rating of 99.9 on the year, but in their last ten games that number climbs to 105.1. The Mercury have an ONR of 108.3 in their last ten games and rank 4th overall for the season. Phoenix isn’t great defensively either ranking 9th in DNR while allowing 1.059-points per possession, 9th most in the league. Both teams are in the upper half of the league in pace of play so barring a bad shooting night we should see a Total of 175+ in this one. Bet Over!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Chicago Sky +10 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty are in one of the stronger ‘fade’ systems in the current WNBA, and that certainly factors into our decision to take the Sky in this setting. The Liberty are 10-1 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. The Sky are a respectable .500 or 5-5 SU away from home with a net differential per game of +0.6PPG. Chicago has lost by double-digits just once this season on the road and they already have a win in New York earlier this season. The Liberty are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they continue to be slightly over-valued by the oddsmakers with their overall 8-11 ATS record. New York has faced one of the softest schedules in the league this season and are also coming off a huge win over Connecticut, while the Sky are off a loss. New York has the better overall offensive numbers, but these two teams are even defensively. We like the points and the Pooch here.

#919 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -125 over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have now won 5 straight games by a combined score of 34 to 13!  Unfortunately they let us down with our big run line play yesterday as Texas won the game by just one run but they are very reasonably priced on the money line tonight.  That said, we love the small price on Texas to extend their win streak to 6 straight games.  They entered this series with B2B high-scoring wins under their belt and as they have now won 5 straight games, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate.  For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true!  Los Angeles has lost 8 of 9 games!  Also, in the 6 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 34 to 9!  You can definitely see these two teams have been going in opposite directions over the past week.  Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the second highest in the AL with only the White Sox worse off.  Also, with Griffin Canning on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one!  Canning had a great start versus a bad A's team recently but has allowed 19 earned runs in his other 5 starts since early June.  He averaged about 5.1 innings in those 5 starts so we look for the Angels bullpen to again play a role in another loss for LA tonight. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Michael Lorenzen has had one tough recent start but it was at Baltimore against a great Orioles team.  The Angels are certainly not the top hitting team in the league like the Orioles and other than his start versus Balimore, Lorenzen's other 4 starts since mid-June have been strong.  He has allowed only 6 earned runs in 23 innings in those 4 starts.  In fact, Lorenzen has given up 2 earned runs or less in 8 of 10 starts since mid-May!  We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue.  The Angels have scored a total of only 9 runs in their last 6 losses!  As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long.  Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and make it 6 straight wins!  A very fair price here on Texas because they are on the road. We'll take it as the Angels have one of the worst home records in the majors this season.  The road team is the bet here.  Lay it!

#235754 ASA PLAY ON Colombia +218 over Uruguay, Wednesday at 8 ET - This one in the second of the two Copa America semifinals match-ups. We like the value of the money line in this one at big plus money with Colombia. Uruguay has made so many headlines in this tourney with their defense but we feel they have met their match here. Colombia certainly strong defensively in their own right plus they have the attackers to break down this Uruguay defense. Also, Uruguay is dealing with Nandez and Araujo expected to miss this one. We feel this is not reflected properly in this line and it gives us great value with the big plus money in this one. Take Colombia on Wednesday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 172.5 Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - Both teams are playing well right now with the Aces winning 7 of their last eight games while the Storm have won 5 of their last six. We aren’t getting involved in a Side on this game but do like an Under wager in this big Western Conference showdown. The Storm has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the W this season at 94.3 and they’ve held 5 of their last six foes to less than 78 points. Seattle has the 2nd best FG% defense in the league allowing 41.8% and gives up the 4th fewest points per game at 78.6. Las Vegas is 6th in the W in DNR at 101.5 but in their last eight games their Defensive Rating is 97.5 and 3rd best in the league. The number on this game was set to high to begin with as a part of the Books reasoning was the success of the Aces offense in recent games scoring 88+ points in 5 straight games. Looking closer at the competition though we see the Aces faced 4 of the five worst defenses in those games and now step up to face one of the best. These two teams have met twice this season with the first encounter finishing with 143 total points and the second ending with 177. In the most recent clash, the Aces shot a ridiculous 56% overall and 40% from the 3-point line which are not sustainable numbers. We call for a lower possession game here and a solid Under winner.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 157.5 Minnesota Lynx at L.A. Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have had major injury concerns for most of the season and it shows in their 4-13 SU record. Minnesota will be missing their best player tonight in Napheesa Collier who is leading the team in points (20PPG), rebounds (10.2RPG) and steals (2.2SPG). The Under is an attractive bet here with a pair of teams that prefer to play slow with the Lynx being the 2nd slowest team in the W, the Sparks rank 9th in pace of play. In two meetings in June these two teams produced 148 and 157 total points. In the most recent meeting on June 14th, they combined for 125 field goal attempts which is well below the league average of 136.2. The reason that game got to 157 total points is the fact that the Sparks shot unusually well at 44%, above their season standard of 42.3% which is 10th worst in the W. That was also a surprising number considering the Lynx have the best defense in the league and hold opponents to 39.5% shooting. In fact, in the first meeting of the season between these two teams the Lynx held the Sparks to 26% shooting. The Under has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these two teams and 7 of the last eight. The most combined points between these two teams in the last five meetings is 157. We like our odds with the Under in this one!

#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have won 4 straight games by a combined score of 29 to 9! With B2B high-scoring wins under their belt in this 4-game winning streak, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate. For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true! Los Angeles has lost 7 of 8 games! Also, in the 5 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 29 to 5! You can definitely see these two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the highest in the AL. Also, with Roansy Contreras on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one! Contreras hasn't gone beyond the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts and has been hit hard plus has more walks than strikeouts in these two outings. Contreras is only expected to get another start here because the Angels are currently so short on starting pitching. This will again cause the Angels bullpen to continue to be over-used. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Max Scherzer has been building up strength and pitch count since he resumed and he could even go 7 innings in this one! Scherzer has been handcuffing hitters and, though his strikeout numbers are lower than usual he is inducing plenty of weak contact. Pop ups, foul outs, ground outs ... those types of outs have been on display as Scherzer gears up. We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue. Again, a TOTAL of only 5 runs scored for the Angels in their last 5 losses! The Rangers continue to work their way back up the AL West standings as the Mariners and Astros are each off B2B losses. It is a long season and Texas is starting to believe again as they are not yet out of the hunt for another strong finish to the season and then of course there is always then hope of another post-season run like last season's World Champion team. As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long. Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and win this by a margin. About that margin, 16 of the Angels last 17 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 17 of the last 19 Texas wins have been by 2+ runs! Look for Texas to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings. Lay it!

#225594 ASA PLAY ON Spain +177 over France, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in the first of the two Euro 2024 semifinals match-ups. We like the value of the money line in this one at big plus money with Spain. As a result of how evenly matched many considering this one, this line is split nearly equally between France and Spain and the Draw. Yes, there is a risk with our pick in terms of this match being a draw after the 90 minutes plus stoppage time. However, we have not been impressed at all with France's lackluster display in the attacking areas. Spain seems much stronger on the attack so far in this tournament plus has also been fantastic defensively as well. That said, there is value here in grabbing a big plus money price on Spain. We do expect Spain to advance and we expect added extra time or penalty kicks to NOT be needed. Spain is going to be aggressive and force France out of the defensive-minded structure they have been trying to play throughout this tournament. Spain's ability to stretch the field laterally in addition to vertically with quick passing strikes is going to give the France system trouble here. We cash in as a result! Take Spain on Tuesday afternoon.

#907 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Braves Chris Sale is having a fantastic season.  The Diamondbacks Yilber Diaz comes in with high expectations based on his minor league success but, of course, pitching at the MLB level is entirely different.  This is his MLB debut and he is facing a very tough assignment having to face the Braves.  As for Sale, he had one unreal ugly start versus Oakland in his last 11 starts.  In the other 10 starts he allowed a total of only 9 earned runs!  Not only that, Sale has allowed - other than that start against the A's - just 22 earned runs in 95.2 innings this season.  He is 8-1 with a 1.53 ERA in night games this season and has held opponents to a .163 batting average in those 9 starts.  We have fantastic line value here with the Braves available at -115 by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this spot.  Also, in terms of bullpens here, the Braves are #1 in the NL with a 2.97 ERA.  The Diamondbacks are #25 out 30 MLB teams with a 4.44 ERA.  Arizona is 20-27 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Diamondbacks are also 6-10 against NL East teams this season and 13-17 against left-handed starters.  Sale is a tough one so this is a really tough spot for Arizona as Diaz is likely to hit some stumbles in his first ever MLB appearance.  Atlanta off B2B wins over a strong Phillies team and the Braves have now won 14 of 23 games.  The Dbacks off B2B wins at San Diego but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games and Arizona has lost all 3 games with Atlanta this season plus 6 of last 8 dating back to last season!  Look for Atlanta to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

ASA top play on Chicago Sky +9.5 at Seattle Storm, 6 PM ET - The Sky just beat this Storm team on July 5th, 88-84 a +10-point underdog. We doubt they can win back-to-back games in Seattle but we do think they can keep this game close throughout. Chicago has won 4 of their last six games and the two losses came against the Aces and Lynx by 8-points each. Obviously, those two teams are arguably the two best teams in the W. Seattle had won 4 straight games, all at home, but three of those came against Dallas and Indiana who have a combined 12 wins. Seattle is 8-2 SU at home this season with a +11.9PPG point differential, but Chicago is 5-4 SU away from home and one of only 5 teams in the league with a positive +/- at +2.1PPG. The Sky are one of the best overall rebounding teams in the league and can limit the Storm’s second chance opportunities as they did in the previous game with a +10-rebound advantage. The immediate revenge angle doesn’t work in this game so let’s grab the generous number and the Chicago Sky.

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are starting unproven Justin Wrobleski who is making his MLB debut.  He is practically jumping directly from AA ball to the majors as he made only two AAA starts before getting called up.  Prior to this season he had never pitched higher than single A ball.  He will be facing a Brewers team that is 5th in the majors for slugging percentage in day games and averaging 4.8 runs scored per game in day games.  Milwaukee sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound for this one.  His recent seasons have only featured minimal MLB appearances and the results have been ugly.  This season, with Milwaukee, Keuchel has only pitched in two games and has a 6.75 ERA and opponents are hitting .316 against him.  His strikeout numbers were way down in the minors this season too.  Now he has to deal with a tough LA lineup and on the road at Dodger Stadium.  Los Angeles has a .441 slugging percentage which is tops in the NL and also they are known for hitting well at home and in day games too.  The Dodgers won yesterday's game 5 to 3 but we expect more scoring in this one.  Prior to that 5-3 win, LA had been involved in 6 straight games that all totaled at least 11 runs!  Our computer math model is projecting 11 to 12 runs here!  We are going with the Over in this one Sunday.

#235745 ASA PLAY ON Brazil PK-120 over Uruguay, Saturday at 9 ET - This one in Copa America action. This is a value spot for Brazil on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-120 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Brazil but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Uruguay has surprised but now faces a stiff step up in terms of level of competition. Even without Vinicius Junior, Brazil is the play here. In fact, his absence for this one is serving to give us line value because the betting markets have overemphasized the impact of his absence. Uruguay won the most recent meeting 2-0 but Brazil entered that one having won 4 straight meetings by a combined score of 11 to 2. While we certainly respect of Uruguay having this hot run through the tournament, we feel strongly that they have finally met their match here. Brazil gets revenge for October loss right here, right now. We expect a solid Brazil win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Brazil Saturday evening.

ASA play on Minnesota Lynx -8.5 vs Washington Mystics, 8 PM ET - Minnesota was looking like the best team in the league with a 13-3 start to the season and a win over New York in the Commissioner's Cup, but have faltered in their last two games giving us value today versus today, Mystic. The Lynx have the 2nd best average point differential in the league at +7.9PPG, have the 2nd best Net Rating, are 1st defensively in Net Rating and allow the 2nd fewest PPG at 74.6. Minnesota puts up 83PPG at home this season with a 9-2 SU record and a +9.5PPG differential. The Lynx are coming off a pair of losses to the two best teams in the Eastern Conference (Connecticut and New York) and should rebound here with a great effort. Washington will be playing their 3rd straight road game after a win in L.A. and a 21-point loss in Las Vegas. The Aces were just favored by 16-points at home against the Mystic and now the Lynx are laying less than 10-points. Washington is 2-9 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -7.9PPG, one of the worst numbers in the W. The Mystic have the 2nd worst Offensive Net Rating in the league and will have a very tough time scoring against this elite Lynx defense. We expect the Lynx to get back into the win column here with a double-digit victory.

#235737 ASA PLAY ON Canada PK-115 over Venezuela, Friday at 9 ET - This one in Copa America action. This is a value spot for Canada on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-115 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Canada but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Venezuela has surprised but off a 1-0 win over an outclassed Jamaica team. Canada had to face a tough Argentina team but then held their own against Peru (a win) and Chile (a draw). Considering this we see value here with many still being non-believers in Canada. There is a reason this match is priced about equal on Canada and Venezuela and the draw despite prevailing market opinion favoring Venezuela. In other words, don't let the line fool you here. Canada is going to surprise yet again. They have responded very well now under Jesse Marsch. They are bringing solid intensity and confidence is on the rise. We expect that to lead to a surprise win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Canada Friday evening.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -4 vs. Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - Unfortunately, this line moved quickly with the Dream opening as the favorite before the Wings were immediately bet by the sharps and are now favored. We feel there is still enough value in Dallas and will back them at home here and predict a win by margin. Dallas looked much better than we expected in their previous game against the Mercury and look like they are adjusting to their new lineups. The Wings have been decimated by injuries this season but still have Howard (17.8PPG) and Ogunbowale (23.8PPG) who can carry the scoring load against a Dream team that struggles on the offensive end of the court. Atlanta is last in the W in Offensive Net Rating at 95.3, they are the worst shooting team at 40.4% and make the fewest FG’s per game at 26.3. Dallas can score with the 6th best team FG% in the league and rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating. The Wings are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the W while the Dream are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rebounding. Dallas has faced a tougher schedule in the West and face a Dream team that has just 5 road wins in their last 20 away from home. We will lay it with Dallas.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8 PM ET - This is another great spot to back a Western Conference team over an Eastern Conference team in essentially a pick’em game. These two teams have near identical records with the Sun checking in at 13-4 SU, the Lynx are 13-3. The difference is the Sun have played the easiest schedule in the W this season while the Lynx has faced an average schedule. When you factor in the Lynx’s point differential and their strength-of-schedule they have the best rating in the league by far. When looking at raw statistics, even after facing the much tougher schedule the Lynx have a better average point differential per game of +8.6PPG compared to +6.8PPG by the Sun. Minnesota also has the better overall Net Rating differential of the two teams. We also like the fact that the Lynx are coming off a loss in New York in their previous game and are now at home where they are 9-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of nearly 9PPG. Lay it with the Lynx.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - Our Peter Parker senses are tingling as they O/U opened 166 but has been bet up to the current number despite a heavy volume of public tickets and money flowing in on the Under. We of course will go contrarian here and bet the OVER. These are two of the worst defenses in the W with the Mercury ranking 8th in Defensive Net Rating, the Wings are 11th. Dallas gives up the most points per game in the league at 88.1, Phoenix allows the 9th most at 84.5PPG. Offensively the Wings have struggled without two of their three leading scorers from a season ago, but the recent return of Natasha Howard has provided a spark offensively. Howard has played in 7-games and is averaging 15.1PPG and is a great compliment to Arike Ogunbowale who is pouring in 23.7PPG on the season. Phoenix is loaded offensively with Kahleah Copper (21.9PPG), Griner (20PPG) and Taurasi who’s still a ‘bucket’ at 16.6PPG on 35.5% 3-point shooting. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 7 of their last ten games which gives them a 7-3 Over record their last ten games. Phoenix is on a 3-7 Over run but in five of those games they’ve faced 4 of the top defensive teams in the league. The Mercury are the 3rd fastest paced team in the W and the Wings have picked up their tempo considerably in their last two games. One of these teams will get into the 90’s and the other will be in the 80’s. Bet the Over!

#928 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Yankees are at home and have Luis Gil on the mound and facing the Reds and Graham Ashcraft.  Gil is 9-3 this season with a 3.15 ERA and he has held opponents to a .169 batting average!  Ashcraft, on the other hand, has been trending the wrong way and has been charged with 18 earned runs spanning 19 innings over his last 4 starts.  The Yankees are off a big 8-1 win Sunday and got their bats going again in the final 3 games of their series with the Blue Jays at Toronto.  The Reds are off a 2-0 loss and have lost 10 of 15 games and scored only 1.9 runs per game in the 10 defeats.  Cincinnati is 18-29 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Yankees are 44-20 against right-handed starters this season.  Of course there is plenty of solid reasoning as to why the Yankees are so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a strong spot and available without any juice on the price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 168 Minnesota Lynx at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - We are grabbing the additional value in the number and will play Under in this game. The opening number on this game was 163 but has since moved to where it currently stands, which is too high according to our model. These two teams just met in the Commissioners Cup and produced 183 total points. But there were some anomalies in that game which are not expected to happen this time around. Combined these two teams attempted 138 total field goals which is just two more than league average, yet they scored 21 more points than the league average. Both teams shot well above season standards as the Lynx hit 48% overall, 48% from Deep and were 100% from the FT line. New York had a great shooting game as well with a 45% field goal percentage, 41% from the 3-point line and 83% from the FT line. Granted, these two teams are two of the best shooting teams in the league, but they are also two of the best defensive teams with the Lynx ranking 1st overall in Defensive Net rating, while the Liberty are 4th. Minnesota gives up just 74.3PPG (2nd) while the Liberty allow 78.2PPG (4th). With a slower tempo expected and two great defenses we predict a total of 161.

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies Austin Gomber is coming off a rough month.  It was not a case of a start or two skewing the numbers either.  Gomber was consistently bad throughout June and we expect the Brewers to light him up.  Gomber enters this one having been charged with at least 4 earned runs in 4 straight starts.  In his 23 innings in June he allowed 35 hits.  This also was not a case of home field (pitchers nightmare Coors Field) doing him in either.  Gomber had 4 of 5 June starts on the road and yet still got rocked.  The Brewers are expected to start Bryse Wilson in this one.  Wilson is off a quality start but this was at home.  He made 3 road starts in June and all were bad.  Wilson was charged with 15 earned runs in 15.2 innings in his 3 June road starts.  Here he faces a Rockies team that, though they struggle on the road, hit the ball very well at home.  Colorado is off a 2-1 loss in most recent home game but the 15 home games leading into that one saw Colorado average 6 runs scored per game!  Milwaukee is off a 6-game home stand in which they averaged 5 runs scored per game.  Their 6 games before that were all on the road and the Brewers also averaged scoring 5 runs in those 6 games!  Given that this game is at Coors Field, they should top that average yet we also look for the Rockies to answer them run for run.  Per our computer math model, the highest probability is in the 12 to 13 range for runs in this one.  Over is the call in this one Monday evening.  

#225565/225566 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals – Portugal vs Slovenia, Monday at 3 ET - This one being played in Euro 2024 action in Germany. Portugal is projected to dominate this one but we like the fact that Slovenia comes in with some confidence and had been regularly scoring goals prior to the drab scoreless draw with England. This will add to the possibility of an early goal to get things rolling here. Slovenia, prior to the 0-0 match with England, had scored at least 1 goal in 21 of 22 games! In the last meeting between these teams (a "friendly" in March), Slovenia scored 2 goals which also helps with confidence here. Slovenia has a talented enough top grouping up front with their forwards that they should help the unit generate a goal in this one. Ultimately the talent disparity is too much and Portugal will cause the Slovenia defense all sorts of trouble here. The result is an entertaining battle early that sees things get out of hand late and we expect plenty of goals to be the end result in this one. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 or 3-1 type match here. We will take the over in this one.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -8 vs Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - We’ve had success backing Western Conference teams versus Eastern Conference opponents in recent wagers and will stick with that theme here. The top four teams in the West, which includes Phoenix, are equal or better than the top two teams in the East (Liberty and Sun). The Mercury got off to a slow start without their center Britney Griner but have since won 5 of their last seven games with the All-Star center in the lineup. In that 7-game stretch the two losses the Mercury have are to the best team in the league Lynx and the defending Champion Aces. The Mercury are 7-3 SU and ATS their last ten games at home and their last three wins have all come by 6+ points. Phoenix has played the toughest schedule in the WNBA this season and now have a positive Net Rating in their last seven games of +2.7. Indiana had a modest 4-game winning streak, but those W’s came against some of the worst teams in the league (Dream 2x, Mystics and Sky). On the season the Fever have the 10th worst average point differential of minus -7.2PPG. The Fever have some defensive deficiencies, ranking last in Defensive Net rating while allowing the most points in the league at 87.9PPG. We were just on the Mercury -10.5 against a similar Sparks team in which they won by 14-points. We expect the same results here and a double-digit win.

#225557/225558 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals – Spain vs Georgia, Sunday at 3 ET - This one being played in Euro 2024 action in Germany. Spain is projected to dominate this one but we like the fact that Georgia comes in with some confidence and has been regularly scoring goals. This will add to the possibility of an early goal to get things rolling here. Georgia has scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight games. In the last 4 meetings between these teams, Spain has scored an average of 4 goals. Georgia has a talented enough top two up front with their forwards that they should help the unit generate a goal in this one. Ultimately the talent disparity is too much and Spain will cause the Georgia defense all sorts of trouble here. The result is an entertaining battle early that sees things get out of hand late and we expect plenty of goals to be the end result in this one. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see another 4-0 or 3-1 type match here. We will take the over in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 167.5 Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm, 9 PM ET - This line opened 164.5 and has been steadily bet up to the current number. We like the added value and will step in with an UNDER wager on this Western Conference game. These two teams recently met in mid-June and the O/U set on that game was 160, obviously a much lower number than this current game. The two teams combined for 176 total points but both teams shot well above season standards which we don’t see happening tonight. The Wings are 6th in the W in FG% at 43.5% overall and 31.1% from the 3-point line. In the most recent meeting, the Wings shot 48% overall and 46% from Deep. Seattle also outperformed their season statistics with a 52% night overall and were 35% from beyond the arc. On the season the Storm shoot just 43.1% overall (7th) and 30.7% from the 3-point line (11th). In that previous meeting the two teams combined for 134 field goal attempts which is below the league average of 136.4 which normally produces 163.4 total points. We expect the Storm to flex their defensive muscle and limit the injury-riddled Wings scoring opportunities in this game as Seattle has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the league. When Seattle has hosted the Wings the Under has cashed in 4 of the last five meetings.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -10.5 vs. LA Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have several injury concerns and aren’t deep to begin with, which has helped contribute to their current 6-game losing streak. Coincidentally, all 6 of those games were on the road as they are again tonight in Phoenix. L.A. is 1-9 SU away this season, 6-4 ATS in those games but most recently they have lost 6 of their last eight road games by double digits. One of those L’s came in Phoenix *68-87) against this Mercury team that did not have Brittney Griner in the lineup. The Mercury are a much better team with Griner and 4-2 SU in the games she’s played in this season. They have impressive wins in that stretch against Minnesota, Seattle and New York along with a close loss to Las Vegas. Those previously mentioned teams are some of the best in the league. The Mercury are also coming off a dreadful loss in Minnesota 60-73 after shooting just 31% overall and 21% from Deep. That poor shooting performance was against the best defensive team in the W and now they step down to face one of the worst in the Sparks. L.A. is 10th in defensive Net rating on the season and on this current road trip they are allowing 89PPG which is the 2nd highest PPG averaging in the league over that 6-game span. Phoenix has faced the toughest schedule in the league this season which has impacted their -3.0PPG average point differential. The Sparks have the 2nd worst average point differential in the league at -7.1PPG but have faced an average schedule. We like the Mercury here minus the points.