Michigan State +10

            In the books in Vegas I love to here the commotion on teams. Everyone's mindset is that this is Alabama's year. Maybe it is, but from an ATS stand point they've faltered more times than not. Michigan State Head Coach Mark Dantonio has put on the best coaching job of the season in my eyes. From poor performance wins against Indiana, Purdue, and Central Michigan to solid wins over Iowa/Ohio State. They've also progressed as the season has went on. Alabama will be put the test and likely prevail but expect another strong effort from the Spartans.

Florida State -7

            Florida State in my book has the best value of any team favored by seven or more in bowl season. Two losses this year---one on a blocked field goal as time expired and another against undefeated Clemson---has put this mirage that FSU has had a down season. Instead I expect FSU to show the same pedigree of a championship caliber team that they've displayed over the past two years. Houston's strength in the American conference was their athleticism. That will be nullified at quarterback with Greg Ward Jr and through the defense of the Cougars. Grab FSU.

Miss State -5

            NC State's 19th rated defense has to be looked at under a microscope. Their five losses in conference they allowed over 37 points a game and mind-boggling yardage. Their only wins in-conference were against the bottom feeders of the ACC who had a combined record of 10-28. Nothing changes here as the Bulldogs have too prolific of an offense for the Wolfpack to hold down. Dak Prescott goes out a winner and adds on to a stellar season statistically.

Auburn -2.5

            Memphis strong start and win over an SEC team in Ole Miss may seem like a good reason to back them against the Auburn Tigers. Yet, I did not like what I saw from the Tigers to conclude the season. The offense has not looked the same and the defense may be one of the worst in the bowl season. Adding Mike Norvell as their new Coach puts an added twist in the reason to back the Auburn Tigers. Norvell showed true inconsistencies at ASU as their offensive coordinator that will be spotlighted in this game.

LSU -7

            Les Miles and LSU should have their way defensively and offensively against the Big 12 Texas Tech. It's the same old script we tend to see from the Big 12 in bowl season and won't change against the more physical and powerful Tigers.

California -7

            Jared Goff had woes all season long and did not play like the elite level quarterback that draft prognosticators foresee him as. But when you've been a starter for numerous seasons and are in the Pac-12 your going to face elite talent. California just did not have the talent to surround Goff and be successful in the Pac-12. Facing Air Force will be a different story and I expect Goff to finally have a performance worthy of a high drafted quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

            The Broncos downfall is one of the more peculiar stories of the season. Their strong defense has somewhat worn down from the lack of offensive support received from quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.  How will an offense suddenly shift especially in a spot where Osweiler is dinged up and Manning is ready to come back on the field? Even at home and with backup AJ McCarron starting I'll side with the balance of the Bengals here. Grab Cincinnati to solidify their rights to a bye week on the road against the struggling Broncos.

Central Michigan +6

            This is one bowl game where I'll put an asterisk on a defense in the Chippewas that can be supported solely by quarterback play. The Gophers are not a juggernaut scoring team which gives value to the Chippewas who are led by an underrated bowl quarterback in Cooper Rush.

Navy -3

            Something just was off with the Pittsburgh Panthers football team as the season waned on. Under a new Coach they seemed to hit that wall of change. Navy led by all time leading QB rusher Keenan Reynolds should handle this game.

Green Bay +4.5

            Green Bay is a team in December that I won't fade against. We've been 5-0 for/against them ATS this season backing them against the Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks and once against the Broncos. They've been 17-4 since 2011 in the months of December and are getting road value here simply for the fact that the Cardinals have been a dominant team at home.  But, with two games left and Arizona up two games on the Packers for a bye there is a chance for the Packers to close out and hurdle the Cardinals with help from Seattle in week seventeen.  Get ready for the first playoff atmosphere type game since the Broncos/Patriots a few weeks back. Back Aaron $$ Rodgers and the Packers Sunday who are getting too many points.

Houston -5

            The QB carousel of the Texans has been hard to watch over the course of this season. But Brandon Weeden starting in this spot may be the conservative need the Texans need. I feel they've stirred away from the running game a bit over the last six weeks. Weeden showed against the Eagles that he can run a simplistic conservative style with a protected defense. That's the recipe here as the Texans defense led by JJ Watt is on a mission to break their funk of missing out on the playoffs

Nebraska +6.5

            A 5-7 team does not belong in bowl season but I believe we'll see a worthy effort from the Corn Huskers. Don't forget Mike Riley has a Pac-12 background from 03-14 as Oregon State Coach. Also, Nebraska has been a great team at playing close games. Five of their losses were by five points or less and all seven by ten or less. UCLA like Memphis defense is too much of an eyesore to back in bowl season.

Philadelphia Eagles -3

            Each time I've counted out Philadelphia they've showed the toughness to battle back. We did get a win last week with Arizona against them. Luckily for Philadelphia they still have a fighting chance to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.  One of the best first to second half turn around performances that still led to a loss was the Eagles against the Redskins earlier this season. Trailing 13-0 the Eagles came out of the half with a quick surge. They did fall short but look for the strengths they discovered in the second half of that game to come to the forefront here. Grab the Eagles Saturday.

Duke +3

            Indiana has now crept up to a three-point favorite. Yes, they did have some formidable games in the Big Ten against the Buckeyes and Spartans. But there are certain teams in bowl season that nearly a full month of preparation poses a disadvantage. The Hoosiers are one in my book as they play a style of play game to game that never had any wrinkles. Look for Duke who can win in an array of ways to come out as an underdog winner.

Washington -8.5

            Chris Peterson and people in Washington know that they have a legitimate top 15 team heading into next season. Southern Miss has immense talent but this matchup just doesn't suit them. The Huskies close the season with two wins to become bowl eligible and will have the type of performance that likely will place them as a top fifteen 2016 team.

UConn +5

            UConn has the look of one of those 6-6 teams that puts on a performance far superior than what they showcased in the regular season. Teams from smaller conferences that are juggernauts point wise often are trap teams in bowl scenarios. Look for UConn to be prepared and deliver as an underdog

Was going to leave today alone but we'll play the Saints.

New Orleans -2.5

The Saints abysmal season has continued to drop their value ATS. Once a guaranteed 6 point or higher favorite at home, they've become normal to be low favorites at home now. That is the case today against a Lions team that has fallen back to Earth after a late October-early November hot streak.   I like how the Saints have not mailed in their season and have begun to look like a team that will carry momentum into 2016. While the Lions are who they are. Grab the Saints as a MNF mid-day add.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5

            Arizona has answered the bell time and time again in big spots ATS. Around a month ago they created distant separation in their division by defeating the Seahawks on the road. This team has thoughts of side stepping woes that caused their team to falter in 2013 and 2014. The Eagles may have won two games in a row but I do not believe their offense is capable of matching Arizona's. We'll grab the Cardinals Sunday night.

Denver Broncos +7.5

            The Steelers have won with so much ease that it seems like they're the AFC leader en route to a bye week. Yet that's not the case. They're 8-5 and have faced off against backup quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. Brock Osweiler will be the third but the difference for Denver is they have the top defense in the NFL. Look for the Broncos to bring the Steelers offense down to Earth a bit. We'll grab the 7.5.

Baltimore Ravens +7

            Baltimore has had a disastrous season after years of winning football. A losing record may not look good overall but surprisingly they've been a decent ATS team. Getting seven at home against a Chiefs team that is red-hot is all the inflation I need. Look for Baltimore to play another tightly contested game. Win/loss they'll fall within the seven point spread.

12/14 05:30 PM  NFL   (133) NEW YORK GIANTS VS (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS (12/11 03:26 PM) edit

Take: (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Reason: Play Dolphins +1.5 The NFC East is as tough as any division to figure out. One team that I won't buy in the division is the New York Giants. Believing a team can rectify their consistent issues in the fourth quarter is not a philosophy to approach in December. The Giants have lost five leads in the fourth quarter this season and are over rated ATS currently in my opinion. Miami is also stellar outside their division this season with a 5-2 record versus 0-5 against AFC East opponents. We'll grab the Fish.

12/13 01:25 PM  NFL   (129) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS (12/11 03:24 PM) edit

Take: (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Reason: Play Packers -6.5 I commented on two teams before their surges to snare in the Seahawks against the Steelers which rolled over to last week's win against Minnesota and also the Packers who were fortunate to defeat the Lions. Yet, they are in great position at 8-4 to not only win the NFC North but possibly challenge the Cardinals for a bye week. They face the Cardinals soon and also the Vikings. Dallas just has not shown the dedication offensively to sustain battles against formidable offensive teams. Aaron Rodgers may not be getting top notch play from position players but sooner than later you have to expect his core group of receivers to come together for a big game. A few scores here at home and that will be too much for the Cowboys to match.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS (114) CHICAGO BEARS (12/11 03:31 PM) edit

Take: (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Reason: Play Washington +3.5 The team being counted out the most in the Redskins in the East is probably going to perform the best of the NFC East teams week fourteen. Washington faces a Bears team that is just 1-5 at home and plays to the style that their defense and offense has excelled against this season. Look for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to get back to a better style of offense after a far too conservative game plan against the Cowboys. The Bears are unconfident at home and a bit too banged up to back Sunday.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (123) TENNESSEE TITANS VS (124) NEW YORK JETS edit

Take: (123) TENNESSEE TITANS 

Reason: Play Titans plus 7 We'll buy the Titans Sunday against the Jets getting a full touchdown. The transformation the Jets have undergone under new head coach Todd Bowles and journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a great story. Yet, they don't blow you away with the caliber of play they've displayed in their wins. This is a value play as the Jets likely would have been 5.5 point favorites had they not came back against the Giants last week. Mariotta has looked comfortable since Whisenhunt was fired and I expect him to be able to keep the Titans in Sunday's matchup. Grab the Titans.

Dallas +4.5

The Redskins have been as dominant as you can possibly be at home, with all five of their wins coming at home. Their only loss was week one against Miami in what was a winnable game. Yet I like the Cowboys in this spot. For once the high hopes of the Cowboys have darted and been tossed out the window. That takes the pressure off of the team that had no chance with Romo out for practically the entire season. Lets not forget Matt Cassell was also thrown into the fire after being traded by Buffalo with the demotion of Brandon Weeden. Now he's had time to learn the system and also sat on the sideline for nearly two starts. He is use to a backup role and I believe coming off the bench will serve him better this game. I do not expect the Redskins to bypass their typical game managing game plan with Kirk Cousins, especially with the division lead. Look for the Cowboys to grab this cover.

Saints +7.5

            It looks like the oddsmakers have finally set a steep enough line on the undefeated Panthers to back the opposing team. The Saints may have had the best performance by an offense this season against the Carolina Panthers and that came with their backup starting in McCown. They moved the football well all game and had a chance to win late before an interception. Even though Carolina has been winning they've shown blemishes on offense that have been side stepped because of their defense. The defense can't always bail you out. Expect the Saints to battle hard in this one and cover a high number.

Raiders +3

The Raiders and Chiefs have been two of the toughest teams to figure out this season. Kansas City has stormed back into the AFC playoff picture while the Raiders are a team that has shown poise and unexpected growth. I'm always a believer in the month of December that you can find value ATS pursuing wild card teams. Separating the believers from the non-believers. KC I just can't buy. Their five wins in a row need to be looked at under a microscope. They annihilated a Lions team in Europe that immediately made changes upon coming home. Pittsburgh started third string quarterback Landry Jones and Denver started an obviously hindered Peyton Manning. San Diego has been in landslide mode and Buffalo just didn't have enough on the road in KC.   They've also won by opening up the offense for Alex Smith, which has not been his strength over his entire career. Look for Oakland to utilize their home crowd and for Carr to put up solid numbers to pull off the ATS cover.

UL Lafayette -2

            Fans of the Rajun Cajuns are unaccustomed to the struggles they've witnessed from their team this season. The offense has sputtered in close losses to South Alabama and New Mexico State that was topped off by a 21-point loss last week to Appalachian State. To end a three game skid they'll look to do so against Troy which has also had a less than stellar season. The personnel is there for Lafayette. Expect them to grind out another close game but this time pull out the W against a Troy team that will not have an answer for Elijah McGuire.

UL Monroe +2

            Monroe has been an absolute untrustworthy team for the month of November ATS, and has had an abysmal year with a record of 1-11. Yet I like the effort in the way they battled back from a big deficit last week to Hawaii to cover in a two-point loss. Typically you would not find value on a 1-11 team that's just a two-point underdog at home. Monroe will battle hard in this one and get their second victory of the season with a win over New Mexico State which should be relenting on defense

Temple +6

            The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls seemed like they were on track to battle in the championship as undefeated teams just a bit over a month ago. Two losses by the Owls and a recent loss to UConn by Houston changed all of that. Houston responded in great fashion a week ago with the return of Greg Ward Jr. to the lineup from injury. Yet often times people forget just how much can be lost by missing two games of action. This is a championship game against a veteran team in the Temple Owls. Expect Ward to show some rust and for the Owls to continue to show proper strides they've showcased the last several weeks. Grab the Owls.

Green Bay -3

            Thursday the Packers travel on the road to try and avenge a home loss to the Lions. Just a little over a month ago the Packers were 6-0 but have stumbled losing four of their last five games. Still at 7-4 the Packers are in prime position to go on a December run with games against the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders before playoff position games against the Cardinals and Vikings. Look for September and October's normalcy to return from the 0-5 Lions and 6-0 Packers as the Packers start a December run.

Baltimore +3

            Even though Baltimore will be without Joe Flacco the remainder of the season I'm not going to overshadow that for the prime issues surrounding Cleveland. It's never good when you bounce back and forth with quarterbacks because of injuries and off the field issues. Lets not forget the Browns have been in this same position last year with Hoyer/Manziel and the year prior with Weeden/Hoyer. It has to effect a team, especially a defense that's been poor all year. Baltimore may have a lot of losses but they've battled in every game. We'll grab the Ravens Monday.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5

            Value has finally shifted enough for me to back the Seahawks Sunday. Pittsburgh may be coming off a bye but that's an overrated alleged handicapping advantage. At this point of the season you can find prime value by forecasting playoff teams. This is a great spot for Seattle as they face the Vikings the following week. After weeks of inconsistency offensively and defensively both sides of the football are starting to ascend on the field. That goes a long way for a team that has lost key games by slim margins. Home field and improved play has me on the Seahawks side Sunday.

Houston Texans -3

            The firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not going to turn around anything. Personnel is still horrid for the Saints defense and throughout Drew Brees career he has struggled against physical defensive lines. The Texans bring that too the table which will key Houston. Brian Hoyer has been an underrated starter against mediocre teams. A few seasons ago he had the Browns rolling before a season ending knee injury and did the same last year before facing stiffer competition. The Saints are a below average team that will not have answers for the Texans defensive front. Grab the Texans.

Notre Dame plus 4

Early post before line movement---Subscribers analysis will be added when other plays are finalized.

Florida +2.5

            If Florida had not laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic this game likely would be Florida -1. I'll side with value here as even though Sean MacGuire is starter he is doing it in a different capacity. No longer has Coach Jimbo Fisher said it's something he'll evaluate. Now with the permanent job I believe MacGuire may handle the pressure a bit differently. Florida will get enough done on offense to cover the 2.5.

Idaho -3

            We will go to the Sun Belt yet again as Idaho takes on Texas State. Texas State has been a peculiar team because they have a solid quarterback in Jones as well as senior running back Robert Lowe. But they're just not the same potent combination that was witnessed a season ago. Scoring the football has been difficult and I believe that'll bode to the home favorite in Idaho. Grab Idaho -3.

Baylor -1

            Baylor may have lost high hopes of a BCS playoff just two weeks ago but that doesn't take away their talent advantage over TCU. TCU played a spirited game last week without Boykin but even with him back you have to wonder how they're going to keep up with the potent Baylor Bears. We'll back the Bears here today to make things interesting if Oklahoma loses Saturday.

Buffalo +7.5

            The undefeated Patriots nearly lost a week ago and are having to adjust without two key players. Julian Edelman is out for several weeks and Dion Lewis out for the year. Tom Brady does not have the safety valve out of the backfield he has had in recent years with Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Lewis this season. I believe that'll cause problems and allow Buffalo to apply more pressure than they did in week two. Remember, in week two the point spread shifted from -2 on the Patriots side to the Bills favored by a point before kickoff. I'm not falling for an 8.5 point swing with the Bills improving and Patriots hurting with injuries. Play the Bills

Green Bay +1

            I've commented a few times this season that the Packers are notorious for 2-3 game in-season lulls. It's happened time and time again for Aaron Rodgers and Mike Mccarthy. Now that the bandwagon has shifted against them I believe they'll snap out of it like they have in years past. Minnesota has piled up the wins but they're doing so with a meager point per game average offensively. Rodgers will get things back and order for the Packers Sunday

Indianapolis +5.5

            The focus for Indianapolis is how they're going to perform with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. It should be but my focus on this play will be the opposing starting quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan's play has been horrific over the last four to five games, and I don't see him snapping out of it anytime soon. Atlanta's defense just is not strong enough to support an offense struggling. The difference with Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup over Luck is the turnover battle. The Colts will win that battle and get the cover Sunday.

Play Miami +1

            Tony Romo is going to come back tomorrow and start the Cowboys playoffs surge. Not exactly. Although the Cowboys do welcome Romo back it's going to be tough on the veteran quarterback to upstart a team that has lost severe confidence on both sides of the football. The team Romo is stepping into the huddle with is not remotely the team it was in week two or last year when Romo came back after missing the Cardinals game. Miami has worked too hard on offense and defense under Dan Campbell to lose to an unconfident Cowboys team at home. This is not last season and a miracle to the Cowboys season is not going to happen.

(371) Michigan State vs (372) Ohio State

            Can Michigan State put a thorn to the Buckeyes on Saturday? This of course could have been a classic matchup of undefeated teams if it were not for the Spartans meltdown against the Wolverines. I ask you, what would the point spread be if that play did not happen to give the Wolverines the win over the Spartans? Definitely not near two touchdowns. Though the Spartans have not looked the part of a highly ranked team neither have the Buckeyes. Expect the Spartans to battle in this game as if they could take that last play back against the Wolverines. Grab Michigan State plus the 14.

Play Michigan State plus 14

UConn plus 10

            Last week I  avoided posting Oregon as a moneyline play against Stanford. This week I'll recommend a 50/50 wager on UConn ML and with the points +10. There's a reason why the undefeated Cougars continue to get zero respect from the polls and BCS chances. They have a run and gun look that has succeeded in the American conference but they don't pass the eye test. The Huskies have made strides and this is the type of game that can get them to a bowl and carry momentum into next season. Grab the Huskies

Georgia State -2.5

            Last week I bypassed the Sun Belt but we'll head back into it this week as South Alabama travels to Georgia State. South Alabama has been a hot potato team that is off their first winning streak of the season. Still, their defense is a major concern of mine heading on the road against a Georgia State team that has underachieved this season. Expect Georgia State to capitalize at home and take advantage of a South Alabama team that is subpar.

Purdue

            From time to time value just sticks out. Iowa's undefeated season has rose their spread value sky high. But over their last three games their only cover was by a half point over Indiana. High lines against the Gophers and Maryland did not come close to inflated spreads. As this line continues to climb from 20 to now 23 I have to step in and root for 2-8 Purdue, who did play a competitive game against a similar style team in Michigan State.

Play Vikings +3

Redskins Pick

            The Saints have been a puzzling team over the last month. They've been able to win games against the Giants, Colts, and Falcons thanks to turnovers and rather poor play from opposing teams. Washington has the perception as one of the worst teams in football but have been tough at home. They've won three of their four games and played well enough to defeat Miami in week one. We'll back the Redskins to dictate the style of play Sunday and grab the win over the Saints.

Baylor -2

Baylor faces the toughest part of their season starting with a Saturday matchup against Oklahoma. Losing Seth Russell will surely have an impact on the Bears but they feel they've improved enough defensively to match their potent offense. Oklahoma will be a true test but I'll side with the Bears to pull out the win and cover Saturday.

Play Oregon +10

Play Temple +3

            South Florida has made stellar improvements to turn around a football program that looked in deep trouble the last four seasons. Still, I believe this is a good spot to back a veteran Temple team. Three point road favorites usually pushes a mind set of trap. Instead here I love the value. Back the Owls who should keep winning off of having a turnover advantage.

Play NC State plus 10

Play Bills +3

Chicago Bears

            I rarely play any games ATS for or against the Chargers. But I like the prime time setup for Monday’s game. Both the Bears and Chargers have lost countless games in dramatic fashion. While the praise has been more centered on quarterback Philip Rivers, people are ignoring the quiet production of Jay Cutler. He is making less mistakes by playing more within the offense. The loss of Matt Forte does hurt but Cutler will be able to utilize Alshon Jeffrey and Bennett against a pour Chargers defense. Grab the Bears Monday.

Play Bears plus 4

Dallas Cowboys

Has Chip Kelly corrected his team’s inefficiencies? No. Dallas may have lost five games in a row but with a win Sunday they’ll be right back in the thick of the NFC East. There last win was over the Eagles in which they controlled the time of possession 2 to 1 with over forty minutes on their side. As many issues as the Cowboys have they have a quiet confidence against the Eagles. Grab Dallas in a favorable position of plus 3.

Play Cowboys plus 3

San Francisco 49ers +7.5

In any profession a shakeup amongst a team that’s lagged gets reenergized with new pieces. Kaepernick’s poor stretch over the last three weeks produced dismal results. Add to that the 49ers traded Vernon Davis. A season that has little hope left for it will turn to quarterback Blaine Gabbert. I expect the 49ers to play adequately against the Falcons with new life. It likely won’t last beyond this week but this a great opportunity to buy the difference from 5.5 to 7.5. Is a two point spread increase worthy for players such as Kaep and Davis? Not in my opinion. Grab the points.

Giants -2.5

            The string of success by Tampa Bay is enough to lure people on them this weekend against the Giants. Not me. Jameis Winston is still a rookie and has benefitted from a great run game and poor opposing offensive execution. Atlanta practically gifted the Bucs the win last week thanks to Matt Ryan’s awful play. New York may be on a bit of a slide themselves but they’re as potent as they come offensively. Odell Beckham and company should have a big day against the Buccaneers.  Expect Winston to look a bit more like a rookie Sunday.

UL Monroe +10

            For the second consecutive week we’ll be on UL Monroe as double digit underdogs. Troy is catching far too much love after a blowout win on the road as 3 point favorites over New Mexico State and taking Appalachian State to three overtime’s as three touchdown underdogs last week. Monroe is a stubborn team that hangs in games. Troy will come back down to Earth from their impactful two weeks. Grab Monroe.

Cincinnati +9.5

            All great college offenses meet a heads on challenge once or twice a season. You just can’t win every week in college football in landslide fashion with offense. Cincinnati is a confident team that’s capable of sustaining matching offense of the Cougars for four quarters. Cougars sophomore quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is still adapting and may not be ready for a closer than anticipated game. That’ll factor in to the spread as this should be closer to 5.5-6 points. Grab the Bearcats.

Louisiana Lafayette -2

            We were on the opposite side of the Rajun Cajuns last week for a cover. Saturday I look for them to play a strong game against Georgia State. In consecutive weeks they’ve found themselves in a hole because of poor first half play. That can be corrected and I expect Lafayette to finally play a complete game and grab the win on the road. Play Lafayette.

Colorado +16.5

            Full season college subscribers have noticed my love for the Buffaloes. They’ve been on my board countless times this season and there’s a main reason why. Colorado has been the doormat of the Pac-12 since entering and with how strong the Pac-12 is this season oddsmakers are overlooking the Buffaloes. Each week there is value and it’s to be had again at home against Stanford. Note the odd start time of 10AM PT for this Pac-12 matchup. Shaky wins by a top ten team don’t prosper the following week. Usually it’ll take a half to get things refigured out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colorado have a small lead here at half and hang on to cover a sizeable spread in the second. Grab Colorado.

Indianapolis +7.5

The drastic jump of oddsmakers hike in value on the Panthers is alarming. Yes they’ve won ten straight but they have not been a team that necessarily blows teams out. I think the value here is on the Colts. For as bad as they’ve played the last two weeks they still have only lost by a touchdown or less. Don’t fall for the back to back prime time lure on the Panthers. Grab the Colts.

Denver plus 3

Shop around to find the plus 3’s out there, or if you have to buy the hook. This should be everything it’s planned to be and more. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league and a defense that has shown tremendous growth. The headliner that has drawn Green Bay as a road favorite is the poor play of Peyton Manning. Hey folks, get over it. Manning is who is he at this stage in his career and his team has adjusted. Frankly it’s shocking to me that people still have not seen the odd value shift from the Broncos a season ago to now. Last year they were favored by near double digits every game with a horrid defense and failed to cover repeatedly. This season they’ve been low favorites the majority of games with a top tier defense and keep covering the number. I’ll back them at home as the same recipe of strong defense and timely offense will key the win for the Broncos.

Play San Francisco plus 8

Todd Gurley has been as impressive of a player over the last month of the NFL season. But concern has to be high with the play of Nick Foles. Foles has not had a solid outing since the Rams win over the Cardinals. There are strong concerns with San Francisco and how they’ll operate with Carlos Hyde out of the lineup. Hyde has been playing through an injury anyways which makes him being out less of an issue. Some quarterbacks have a quiet confidence against certain opponents and Colin Kaepernick is one against the Rams. He has had some of his best performances against the Rams and I expect him to showcase that confidence Sunday. Buy the 49ers on an inflated line.

Rich Rod and the Arizona Wildcats have been as potent of an offense as there is in the Pac-12. The problem has been the defenses vulnerability to stop anything. Heading up to Washington they need to show the veteran capabilities this team possesses. Washington has a young defense that has struggled against the run and will have Browning returning from injury at quarterback. This is the type of game where Arizona’s offense should finally be able to outpace their poor defense. Grab the Wildcats.

Play Arizona +4.5

Saturday night the Washington State Cougars will look to try and knock off the surging Stanford Cardinal in the Pac-12. The Cougars have just one loss in conference and could tie the Cardinal with a win Saturday. Luke Falk has been dominant at quarterback with just four interceptions and over twenty touchdowns. On the road this should be a true tough test for the Cardinal. But they’re the only team in college football I see getting better as the season goes on. They’ll have too much balance that will over power the Cougars. Grab Stanford.

Play Stanford -10.5

The undefeated Temple Owls will do all they can Saturday to keep their undefeated record intact. To do so they’ll have to play mistake free football and execute at their highest level in all phases of special teams, defense, and offense. For how great Notre Dame has been this season they’ve been a turnover prone team. That will be the difference in landing our cover Saturday as Temple will play like a true top twenty five team.

Play Temple + 11

As potent as Louisiana Lafayette are on offense they are just as deadly and porous on defense. Louisiana Monroe has struggled as they transition with a true freshman quarterback in Garrett Smith. This should be the type of game he can settle in as he is a dual threat quarterback. Even though Monroe is 1-6 overall they’ve fought in several games including against Tulsa and Alabama. We’ll grab them plus 11.5 Saturday.

Play UL Monroe +11.5

Neither of these teams light it up on offense. Virginia Tech may look back at this season and say what if. They’ve lost several close games that were winnable and now likely will not be in position to make a bowl game. But I believe they’re further ahead in development than Boston College. The Hokies will be able to shut down Boston College’s simplistic offense and get the win and cover Saturday morning.

Play Virginia Tech -2.5

Play Wake Forest +12

            In the ACC Friday night the Louisville Cardinal will look to finally play mistake free football against Wake Forest. This is a curious line even against a rusty young Wake Forest team. I just have not seen enough from the Cardinal offensively or discipline wise to back them as double digit favorites. Wake Forest will stay in this game and cover the number.

Play East Carolina -6

UConn is definitely a program moving upward after years of poor football play. They’ve stayed in a few games this season against teams such as Missouri, BYU, and South Florida. I’m not sold on them finishing the season out strong. They have a look of a young team that is growing but will falter as the season ends. East Carolina should be able to take prime advantage of UConn even on the road. Grab East Carolina

Play Oregon +2.5

A Pac-12 battle takes place Thursday night in Tempe, Arizona between Arizona State and the Oregon Ducks. These two have not squared off since 2012's Thursday matchup in which the Ducks blew out Arizona State. This is a chance for both teams to get back on the right path and control their destiny for an at-large bowl game. I like the versatility Adams Jr. brings to the Ducks offense. He'll be very tough for the Devils to adjust too defensively, especially with the all out blitzes Todd Graham loves to bring. It's hard to believe the Ducks are in an underdog role for the second consecutive game but I'll grab them once again. Play Oregon plus 2.5

            Baltimore Ravens plus 8.5

                Baltimore has had issues galore to for the first half of the NFL season. But to say they should be 8.5 point underdogs is a bit of a stretch. Arizona has stumbled in two of their last three games and seem to be having issues on both sides of the football. All of Baltimore's  losses have been close affairs  and winnable games in the fourth quarter. As stated in a prior column, Arizona's strong home record under Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians at 12-3 is impressive. Before this season the Cardinals were only 4.5 point favorites or higher just once during that span. Oddsmaker's have adjusted to the public and sharp money that has been coming in on Arizona this season. Grab Baltimore to play another competitive game win or lose and stay within the number.

Philadelphia Eagles +3

                        Earlier in the week my mindset was to take the streaking Carolina Panthers. But upon further review I’ll grab the points with the Philadelphia Eagles. Sometimes matchups just don’t bode well for an opponent and I believe that to be the case for Carolina here. Tempo has been dictated by the Panthers in the majority of games this season especially in second halves. Second halves are where the Eagles thrive on Chip Kelly’s adjustments. The Eagles have momentum and confidence with the NFC East division in their hands after a poor start. Look for the Eagles to play a great brand of football and play similar to last year’s performance against the Panthers.

            Oakland Raiders +4

            Philip Rivers has done a fantastic job at this stage in his career at keeping the Chargers afloat. But sooner or later it has to take its toll on the veteran. He has an inefficient run game and the Chargers defense is extremely vulnerable. Oakland can utilize a simplistic game plan with the run and passing attack to keep this game close. San Diego has difficulty pulling away from teams and that’ll leave a fourth quarter opportunity for the Raiders. Expect a kneel down cover or the Raiders to win this outright.

In the late Pac-12 matchups we’ll overlook Stanford vs  Washington for the Colorado vs Oregon State game. Both teams are on the bottom level of the Pac-12 but have ingredients in place to move upward. Colorado has the edge in leadership while Oregon State has an abundance of freshman learning on the go. All of the veterans on Colorado have endured an abysmal record in the Pac-12, with the majority being landslide losses to top level teams. Winning a conference game means the world to the upperclassmen and head coach of Colorado. It won’t be easy but we’ll look for the Buffaloes to grab the road win and cover the small line of plus 2.

Play Colorado +2

In this late evening Sun Belt conference matchup we’ll back the home team in Texas State against a reeling South Alabama team. South Alabama is coming off extended rest after losing to Arkansas State in a Tuesday matchup a week and a half ago. They’ve had poor play lately from the quarterback position. Texas State is a disciplined enough team at home to have the edge in the turnover battle. That’ll be the difference in the final result and land us a cover with Texas State.

Play Texas State -3

Play Michigan State -16.5

            Michigan State has been horrid ATS and is coming off of a freak win against Michigan. The win finally shook their ATS woes but also kept them in the hunt for a BCS championship. I think it will spark the Spartans against an Indiana team that has been playing above their capability. The Spartans style of play bodes well for an ATS cover here. A few big plays with their offense and a grind it out style that pours it on in the second half. Grab Michigan State

Clemson is one of those teams that yearly has had the possibility of representing in a BCS bowl. But  ACC conference play usually targets them for a critical loss. While the Miami Hurricane program is no where to the level it use to be, it is by no means a down program. They have talent and will be ready to battle Clemson in hopes of derailing their season. 7.5 is far too many points in my opinion. Look for the Hurricane to battle just as hard as they did against Florida State. Grab the 7.5.

Play Miami +7.5

It’s not often you see a road team as steep favorites. Yet that’s the case with Houston. Houston made the switch to quarterback Greg Ward Jr. in this exact matchup last season. John O’Korn has since transferred to Michigan, but the move has proved to be one of the top decisions any division one program has made. Ward’s averaging over 70% on pass completions and over 100 yards rushing in each game. Those believing that Central Florida will be able to respond in a big way better take a look at the poor play during their 0-7 start. A loss to FCS Furman and a mountain of points giving up to UConn and Tulane. Grab Houston.

Play Houston -21.5

10/20 05:00 PM  CF   (301) UL - LAFAYETTE VS (302) ARKANSAS STATE edit

Take: (301) UL - LAFAYETTE 

Reason: Play UL Lafayette plus 7.5 Tonight in the Sun Belt conference, Arkansas State will look to build upon last week's come from behind win against South Alabama. Freddie Knighton returning to the lineup was vital for an offense that struggled without him. Yet, defensively Arkansas State has been struggling. I'll side with the points here on a high number with Lafayette.

Giants +5

            The NY Giants travel to face their division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night football. The division has had its typical parity with the Giants leading the division by one game over Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington. To see the Giants as a road dog here is quite surprising. They do have some injury concerns but their defense has been playing well and the Eagles just have not been consistent enough to back on this steep of a line. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin together are 30-14-2 ATS in the month of October. They’ll grab another cover here Monday night.

Colts +9.5

            This spread in August was -3 on the Colts side against the Patriots. It opened at 7 and has shot up to as high as 11 in some markets. There comes a point in time in any market where saturation becomes too much. This is probably that highest moment of any game this NFL season. For the first time this season the Patriots are not receiving buyback on the opposing team, as was the case against the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys. Boiling down those opponents they faced a backup quarterback in Brandon Weeden, a first year starter in Tyrod Taylor, a struggling second year quarterback in Blake Bortles, and did not cover week one against the Steelers.   The Colts will finally play a competitive game against the Patriots and cover this inflated number.

10/18 01:05 PM  NFL   (267) CAROLINA PANTHERS VS (268) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS edit

Take: (267) CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Reason: Play Carolina plus 7.5 Carolina is coming off a bye week and travels to Seattle. This matchup has featured some solid close matchups over the years. This point spread is head scratching to me as the Panthers are undefeated and the Seahawks have yet to showcase proper balance on offense and defense. Ron Rivera has the Panthers playing at a higher confidence than he has his entire tenure there. With Newton's development as a leader I believe the Panthers will stay in this game. They've seen Russ Wilson enough times to be prepared for his improvisational plays. Grab the Panthers.

Play Buffalo plus 3.5

            The Bengals are undefeated thanks to superb play in fourth quarters against the Seahawks, Ravens, and Chargers. Sooner or later their way of waiting until the fourth quarter to pull off games is going to bite them. Even with the Bills quarterback situation uncertain I like the Bills home edge here. They’ve won in the past with backup quarterbacks in emergency spot starts with a lengthy list of quarterbacks. One of the reasons for that is their home field edge. The defense, which has been subpar for the past few weeks, should be ready to respond and the Bills will have LeSean Mccoy and possibly Sammy Watkins back. Grab the Bills plus 3.5.

10/17 07:30 PM  CF   (213) OREGON VS (214) WASHINGTON edit

Take: (213) OREGON 

Reason: Play Oregon +3 The perception is that the Oregon Ducks are finished. An overtime loss a week ago marked their third loss of the season and second in Pac-12 conference play. Meanwhile the Huskies just defeated USC as 17 point underdogs. But I think this matchup here is a solid one for the young Ducks. Washington doesn't run away from teams with a vanilla offense and will have a tough time on defense with Oregon's up tempo offense. Grab Oregon plus 3.

Colorado  +7.5

            Colorado is a team that was on the rise in bettors’ eyes just two weeks ago. Then they stumbled at home as 7.5 point dogs to Oregon and suffered another ATS loss last week to Arizona State. A game in which bettors moved the line by two full points to 16.5 to 17 before kickoff. This week though they have a much better matchup against the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona’s defense is one of the worst in the Pac-12 which should keep this game close. The Buffaloes always mark a game or two in Pac-12 play that they believe they can win, and this is one for a building football program. Grab the Buffaloes

FSU -7

            Everett Golson has had his woes against tough blitzing defenses throughout his career. Yet the burden at Florida State is not as high on his shoulders as it was at Notre Dame. The Seminoles an rush the football against the Cardinals aggressive defense and then open up the passing game. On offense Louisville turns the football over far too frequently to support them on the road against a potent team such as FSU. Grab FSU.

Tonight in Utah, BYU will look to get back on a winning track after stumbling in late September.  BYU’s defense has been worse as the season has stretched and the offense is still working out kinks with freshman quarterback Mangum. That is not a quality recipe to have against the potent offense of the Bearcats. They’ll be able to score against the Cougars and should get a solid cover for us Friday night.

10/15 07:30 PM  CF   (109) UCLA VS (110) STANFORD edit

Take: (110) STANFORD 

Reason: Play Stanford Tonight, we'll back the Pac-12 Stanford Cardinal against the Bruins. Stanford has owned this series as of late and are a team riding great momentum since their first loss against Northwestern. Look for the Cardinal to have the advantage on both sides of the football tonight. Grab Stanford.

10/11 05:30 PM  NFL   (473) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (474) NEW YORK GIANTS edit

Take: (473) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 

Reason: Play San Francisco +7 It's rare to see a team go from a seven point underdog to a seven point favorite in one week. Yet that is the case for the NY Giants. As bad as the 49ers have played they have been the only team to limit Aaron Rodgers this season. New York has not shown me enough in finishing off games to back them as a touchdown favorite. Grab the touchdown with the 49ers.

10/11 01:25 PM  NFL   (469) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (470) DALLAS COWBOYS edit

Take: (470) DALLAS COWBOYS 

Reason: Play Cowboys plus 10 Dallas is 2-2 and yet they're home underdogs of 10 points. Sure Brandon Weeden has not won a game yet as starter but he has put the Cowboys in position to win. A thirteen point lead was blown against the 4-0 Falcons and an overtime loss against the Saints. Dallas's defense will match up well against the Patriots----enough for me to back them with ten points.

10/11 01:05 PM  NFL   (467) ARIZONA CARDINALS VS (468) DETROIT LIONS edit

Take: (467) ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Reason: Play Arizona -2.5 The Detroit Lions have the prime time lure on their side. They were down by just two points to the Broncos with under eight minutes left and were a yard away from grabbing the lead late against the Seahawks. Now they face an Arizona Cardinals team they've lost to three seasons in a row. One in which Stafford threw three pick six interceptions and last year's in which they failed to score a touchdown. Ignore the prime time lure and grab the Cardinals to defeat the Lions for the fourth straight season.

10/11 10:00 AM  NFL   (451) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS (452) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS edit

Take: (451) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Reason: Play Jacksonville plus 3 This seems like a great spot to grab Tampa Bay as a slight favorite before they head into their bye week. Not so fast as the Buccaneers weaknesses will only grow this weekend against Jacksonville. With a 30th ranked defense and Winston coming off a four interception game expect the Jaguars to win this with clock management and TJ Yeldon. Yeldon will build off of his first 100-yard game and more blunders will surface from Winston. Grab the Jaguars.

10/11 10:00 AM  NFL   (465) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (466) CINCINNATI BENGALS edit

Take: (465) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

Reason: Play Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks moved to 2-2 and are coming off two games they were heavily favored. One a cover of 16.5 points against the Bears and last week on Monday against the Lions they didn't as 10.5 point favorites. The Bengals are 4-0 but are winning with their offense not defense. The defense has had a tough time against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Chargers and allowed far too many points and yardage. I'll back Seattle as a dog to put up their best effort of the season thus far.

10/10 07:00 PM  CF   (379) CALIFORNIA VS (380) UTAH edit

Take: (379) CALIFORNIA 

Reason: Play California plus 7.5 Utah is a quality team but I have my doubts about them being in the top five. Similar to Ole Miss defeating Alabama and then losing to Florida a week ago, the same may happen with Utah after beating Oregon. The Pac-12 is too balanced. California's offense will be the first to really test a Utah defense that is solid but not as great as years past. We'll then see if Travis Wilson can handle the burden of making tough decisions when not having a lead. An area he has struggled in throughout his career at Utah. We'll grab Cal in a generous spot of 7.5 points.

10/10 01:00 PM  CF   (349) TROY VS (350) MISSISSIPPI STATE edit

Take: (349) TROY 

Reason: Play Troy plus 30.5 SEC teams and teams in general have had a tough time covering huge point spreads this season. The theme throughout the main power conferences is parity. This parity has allowed for teams from smaller schools to stay in games against power schools. Troy will do the same as this shouldn't get over the low to mid 20's. Grab Troy plus 30.5

10/10 12:30 PM  CF   (403) WISCONSIN VS (404) NEBRASKA edit

Take: (403) WISCONSIN 

Reason: Play Wisconsin plus 1.5 It's peculiar to see the Badgers an underdog here. But they did just lose as a touchdown favorite at home to Iowa. They're 3-2 and in an awfully familiar spot as a season ago in which they started the season the same way. Last year they rolled off seven straight wins until losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten conference championship game. Nebraska may get an early lead here but Wisconsin will show their veteran grit and get the win Saturday at Nebraska.

10/09 04:00 PM  CF   (307) SO MISSISSIPPI VS (308) MARSHALL edit

Take: (308) MARSHALL 

Reason: Play Marshall -3 The line movement over the last day figures to side with Southern Miss. On the contrary I'll side with the Thundering Herd. Southern Miss has the lure of their spread offense but while it's been effective it has had it's down moments as well. They nearly lost a three touchdown lead against Texas State and were down three touchdowns to Nebraska. Marshall will be able to win this with the consistency of their offense and the home edge. Grab Marshall

Play Washington

Both the Trojans and Huskies are coming off bye weeks. Yet I expect the younger Huskies to be ready against a Trojans team that has hit their ceiling offensively. 17 points is far too many to side on the Trojans side. Grab the Huskies