Any big line move in most sports I’ll tail against it. As great as the Bills are a 4.5 point line move to two full touchdowns is too much in the post-season. Miami finished the year as a stout covering team in the division, with covers against New England, Buffalo, and the Jets. Skylar Thompson will play better than he did last week against the Jets, and the Bills since week five are 0-4 on spreads higher than 9.5.

Typically I’m one that will bypass the final week of the NFL season. We know there are plenty of teams that have nothing to play for and primary focus is the off-season or post-season. Yet, I love the turn around I’ve seen from the Panthers under Steve Wilks. The building blocks are in place and I believe they finish off the season on a positive note. Take the underdog Panthers against a Saints team that’s value is a bit skewed off of three straight wins. 

After a loss last week to the Carolina Panthers the pressure is on the Detroit Lions. They’ll face a Bears team that has lost eight straight games but played the Lions tough earlier this season. Chicago had a 24 to 10 lead, before the Lions stormed back and won in the fourth quarter. Look for the Bears to play a bit of a spoiler role with a competitive game and road cover. Play Chicago.

The Indianapolis Colts woeful performance on Monday Night looked like a team that has the offseason on their minds. For the Giants they’ve been an underdog five weeks in a row, and Sunday will mark the highest they’ve been favored all season long. As poor as the Colts looked six days ago, the NFL always showcases to forget what you last saw. Expect a sloppy game but for the Colts to finish within the number. 

Cabe Klubnik is not your ordinary first time starter for Clemson. He has been used throughout the season. A comeback win over Syracuse and played the majority of their win over UNC in the ACC title game. Tennessee will have the offense under Joe Milton to compete against Clemson, but ultimately look for Clemson to wear down the Vols. Take Clemson on the small number

Kansas is a team that resurrected this year but we don’t know what could of been. Their early season success was stymied when quarterback Daniels was injured. He will play in today’s bowl game and even though his play is not significantly stellar, his presence raises the level of the entire team. Take Kansas and buy the hook to three if you need to.

As electric as Central Florida can be they have a tough matchup against Duke. Sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard has been terrific for the Blue Devils and started to blossom further as the season waned down. Seven of his twenty touchdowns came in the final two games. Take Duke to do enough to end their season above .500 at 7-6.

The bowl period between December 26th-29th is going to feature a lot of 6-6 teams. There are ones that make you scratch your head in why they did not finish with a better record. Memphis fits that category as the majority of their losses in American conference play were slim. As electric as their scoring drives are they somehow find a way to leave the door open for the opposition. That trait makes Utah State a worthy bet. Take them plus the touchdown.

ATS attraction of a quarterback facing his former team is more of a professional football angle in the NFL. Yet, Tuesday it is an angle for quarterback Kyle Vantrease who played for the Buffalo Bulls for five seasons. The quarterback has had a booming season statistically for Georgia Southern throwing for 3,900 yards and 25 touchdowns. A big issue though is he is turnover prone with fifteen interceptions. Expect two to three turnovers to be enough for the Bulls to close within this number. Take Buffalo.

After beginning the season losing five of their first six games, New Mexico State closed out the year winning five of their final six games. This occurred once Diego Pavia took over as the Aggies starting quarterback, who is 4-1 as starter for the Aggies. This will be a competitive bowl game against Bowling Green, but look for the Aggies to continue their strong finish to the season. Take the Aggies.

Look for the Green Bay Packers to make things a little more interesting in their slim postseason chances. Their offense may still not look like prior years, but their defense has limited opponents to twenty points or under in three of four weeks. Miami’s three game slide was all on the road, but puts pressure on their 5-1 home record Sunday. Play the points with the Packers. 

6-6 SEC teams have historically done well in bowl games. Missouri will have a big challenge on their hand as Wake Forest has been a featured ACC team for several years with their potent offensive attack. Yet, I think Missouri is looking forward to this bowl game as they needed they won their final two games to get in. The favored number on Wake Forest side is warranted but just look for Missouri to be the better team after the long layoff. Play Missouri.

After the first month of the college football season, South Alabama looked like a Sun Belt top tier level team that could be of the likes of former Top 25 conference representatives in Appalachian State and UL Lafayette. As the season progressed their offense tailed off. Their 10-2 record masks the issues that were evident as they pulled out several close wins. With nearly a month off since they last played look for Western Kentucky to expose the Jaguars and deliver a strong performance. 

One of the toughest spots in the NFL is building off of a showcase victory. The Cincinnati Bengals did so last week after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs the week prior. Now though they have to go on the road against a desperate Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. There will be moments where it looks like the Bucs will end the Bengals five game winning streak, but look for the Bengals to continue to showcase themselves as a legit contender in the end. Grab Cincinnati.

Winning suddenly with an interim coach and a completely reshuffled roster is not supposed to happen. Yet, Sam Darnold has looked healthy and has accepted the Panthers run heavy script. With a Buccaneers loss Sunday they would have the tie breaker and division lead if they win Sunday. Grab the Panthers as they build a season high third straight win and defeat the Steelers. 

Seattle still has momentum offensively but it has been waning. Traction to their favored side has teetered. Even with their playoff hopes clinging against a bottom level NFL team, there is value to bet against the Seahawks. Carolina has played inspired football under their interim coach Wilks, and has the checks and balances of safe football with Sam Darnold. Play the points with Carolina. 

Throughout their down years the Detroit Lions have had a knack of playing solid football in the division against the Minnesota Vikings. Looking back at their week three loss they had the game in hand before a fourth quarter melt down. Yet, they have grown from a string of close losses early in the season and won four of their past five. They are correctly favored against the 10-2 Vikings. Play Detroit.

Late add on MNF’s action with the Saints. The Saints prime time woes tied with Andy Dalton are well known. The division as a whole has been a mess and that has created value to go against Tampa Bay and Brady tonight. For all the success Tom has had this is a different level of a team for Brady to try and dig out of a hole. They’ll still have a great chance to win the division with a subpar record but look for the Saints to be competitive on the big stage. Play the points.

It’s evident that the Falcons have missed out on several golden opportunities to win close games. They may have five wins but they are beginning to look like a team that may stumble as we enter December. This is also the point in time where the coaching staff may want to assess their rookie quarterback in Desmond Ridder. This very well could be Marcus Mariotta’s last chance to show his value into next season for the Falcons. Look for that pressure to be to much as the Steelers prevail again.

The New York Jets had no issue with their quarterback change in last week’s home rout over the Bears. But that was a Bears team playing their backup quarterback and a home game for the Jets. Can they produce on the road and show that they can be a true caliber playoff team. I believe so as the Vikings were more fortunate than dominant in their win against the Patriots. Take the Jets in a close one.

Post bye week is an opportunity for the Seahawks to keep their first half of the season momentum rolling. Problem is after the bye week can often times derail a team just a tad. The Vegas Raiders are not a conventional 3-7 team as they squandered opportunities all season long in winnable games including the Cardinals, Chiefs, Titans, and more. Take the Raiders plus the points. 

The Tennessee Titans brand of football is rare this day and age in the NFL. Both sides of the football they can lean on to execute for two halves. Yet, they have not been challenged to score in volume in a long time. Look for the Bengals to crack through offensively and spur a road victory at Tennessee. Play the ML. 

Washington State has had a solid campaign under new quarterback Cameron Ward, but has yet to defeat any Pac-12 teams with a winning record this year. Tonight will be their final and best opportunity against 13th ranked Washington. The Huskies have been involved in close games all throughout conference play before last week’s eruption and forty-seven point win agains Colorado. Look for their knack of playing to the level of competition to occur again Saturday night. Take Washington State.  

Southern Miss is another college football team that has had to deal with a plethora of different quarterbacks to start this season. Starting Trey Lowe at quarterback the last three weeks has resulted in a 5-3 season reversing for three straight losses to 5-6. Yet, today is their last opportunity to become bowl eligible. Look for the Golden Eagles who have been in striking distance in their last two losses, to pull through with bowl eligibility on the line. Take Southern Miss over UL Monroe. 

               Sunday I’ll recommend the small number on the Detroit Lions. Detroit’s won consecutive games and are a much better team than their record shows. We are already starting to see teams that have had great records hit a bit of a pre December wall. The Giants have been fortunate to have a generous schedule yet have not seen their spreads rise. Take Detroit plus the points.

Both Middle Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic are a win away from becoming bowl eligible. The Owls are coming off getting their first road win of the season defeating Florida International, 52 to 7. The all around performance on both sides of the football should lead to an early hot start from FAU. Middle Tennessee State will get back in the game but look for FAU to hang on and cover ATS.

A close victory over Georgia Tech was not indicative of the final score for Miami, as they pulled away late for a cruising double digit victory. From an offensive standpoint the passing game will have major lapses. Although Clemson has struggled to cover double digit spreads this season, today will be an opportunity where special teams and defense can be an extra catalyst for the Tigers. Take Clemson

Houston’s juggernaut offense has excelled in American Conference play as they have won four of five games, and averaged forty-four points. For as much offense the Cougars have displayed they are also giving up an exorbitant amount of points defensively. East Carolina has the athletes and an experienced quarterback to score at a rapid rate. This is also their last home game for seniors including quarterback and fan favorite Holton Ahlers. Take the Pirates. 

Last week the Baylor Bears were flat out unprepared and could not stop the Kansas State offense. An embarrassing loss would seem like another bad spot for the Bears against undefeated TCU. Yet, I expect Baylor’s home crowd and the will to want to give TCU their first loss of the season to carry Baylor. Grab them plus the points.

Ohio once again finds themselves as a small favorite in Tuesday Mac-tion. The Bobcats are on a five game winning streak in which they have defeated every opponent by seven points or more. Today’s spot is tricky though for the Bobcats against a Ball State team that has a knack for keeping games close. Take the home underdog to threaten to end Ohio’s win streak.

Prior to their bye week the San Francisco 49ers looked as dangerous as ever in a rout against the Rams. The addition of Christian McCaffrey is going to key plenty of drives for San Francisco. Yet, the 49ers have struggle outside of the division, with a 1-4 record. Look for their inability to execute outside the division to haunt them on a spread that is far too big. Take the Chargers.

The Tennessee Titans string of fortune nearly propelled them to a huge win on the road last week against Kansas City. Continuing their methodical ground attack by Derrick Henry can only work for so long. Expect the Denver Broncos defense to be fresh off their bye week, and for the Broncos to get the necessary big plays to propel them ATS. Take Denver.

In the late games San Diego State finds themselves as a small home underdog against San Jose State. The Spartans have the showcase record at 6-2, but have had closer than expected calls in consecutive weeks against Nevada and Colorado State. In a road environment look for the Aztecs to churn the clock and keep this within range in the second half. Take the Aztecs as the Spartans succumb and falter in the waning moments.

Baylor will have their hands full against Adrian Martinez and Kansas State. As conference play has stretched on Martinez’s sacks have gone up, and his rushing yards have dipped. In fact, his last three full games played he has been sacked eight times. Also, Baylor has endured the easier scheduling stretch opponent wise versus Kansas State facing three consecutive top twenty five teams. Tail Baylor in this one.

Sitting at 4-5, the Hurricanes prospects of becoming bowl eligible are bleak. To get closer to eligibility they will have to find a way to bounce back from a 45 to 3 home loss to Florida State. The Hurricanes starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke will be not play today against Georgia Tech. Still, the Hurricanes have fared better on the road this year where they are 2-0 in-conference. Take Miami with the points.

Marshall can assuredly hang their head on a strong defense. Yet, their offense has been abysmal and complacent. Against Coastal Carolina they left several points off the board with a failure to execute in plus territory and the red zone. Additionally, in last week’s 12-0 win over Old Dominion they failed to score a touchdown. On the road tail Appalachian State. 

Washington State should have another big week in-store from a points perspective against a highly vulnerable Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils hung around against UCLA but could not stop the Bruins from scoring a week ago. Still, I love the confidence soaring from Arizona State’s new starting quarterback in Trenton Bourguet. Ride the points here with ASU.

Ohio’s four game win streak will be on the line tonight as they travel on the road to face Miami-Ohio. Last year’s contest against the Red Hawks was a great Tuesday Mac-tion contest as Ohio held on to defeat the Miami-Ohio 35 to 33. Ohio nearly blew a four touchdown lead thanks to Brett Gabbert throwing for 492 yards. This could be another high scoring affair but look for the Bobcats improving defense to stymie Miami-Ohio late. Take the Bobcats

The Akron Zips have went 2 and 30 over their last thirty-two MAC conference games. In fact, their lone win this season they had to go to overtime to defeat a non division one school in St. Francis (PA). As poor as their season has been, I do believe they can keep tonight’s contest against Eastern Michigan within the spread of seven points. The lone matchup the Eagles separated from a team was against their in-state rivals in Western Michigan. Take the dog here with Akron.

It’s not often that a team is a bigger favorite on the road then they are at home in the same matchup. That’s the case Sunday as Arizona was a steeper favorite in their road mid-October matchup against Seattle. It was a woeful offensive performance as Arizona generated just one field goal. Yet the offense is much different with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, and I expect some regression from Seattle’s three game win streak. Take the Cardinals.

The Packers four-game losing streak and 3-5 ATS mark have made them one of the hardest teams to assess. Sunday’s matchup will mark their third straight road game, but it is a divisional matchup. Over the years Aaron Jones has torched the Detroit Lions through both the ground and out of the backfield. Detroit’s pour defense should position the Packers for a breakout performance offensively, and their first road win. Take the Packers.

Out in the desert Arizona State may have discovered something with quarterback Trenton Bourguet. Bourguet is coming off a 435 yard performance in the Sun Devils victory over Colorado. A new look on offense mixed with different play call packages can confuse the opposition. UCLA may be 7-1, but this is a tricky road spot with a lot of points. Take the Sun Devils.

Just a couple of weeks ago James Madison was undefeated and reached 25th in the polls. Suddenly the Dukes have stumbled with consecutive losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall. After a bye week one would expect James Madison to be a refocused team. Yet, Louisville has caught a rhythm and has three straight statement wins by double digits. Take Louisville.

South Alabama’s offense has clearly taken a step back from where it was in September and early October. Defenses have adjusted to quarterback Carter Bradley and the patterned play calls from the Jaguars. While the offense may continue to be shaky it’s the defense of the Jaguars that has grown as the season has progressed. Look for South Alabama to get the edge on the road led by their defense, and halt the newfound team success of Georgia Southern. Play South Alabama.

Throughout this season we’ve seen ranked road Pac-12 teams struggle. This should be a solid spot for the Washington Huskies to take advantage of an Oregon State team that’s probably a season away. Sure, Washington has not looked the part in-conference but it takes time for a quarterback to transfer and get going. Look for Michael Penix to keep the offense above what Oregon State has to offer. Take Washington.

The Buffalo Bulls have had one of the best turn arounds of any team in college football. Buffalo had lost seven straight games dating back to last season and the first three games of this season. Suddenly they have now rolled off five straight wins. As great as their turn around has been playing a game on Tuesday is an aspect that can throw a team off. Take Ohio to threaten the Bulls win streak and cover the plus three. If you see 2.5 now buy the hook. 

Strength of schedule matters in every conference, even in the MAC. Kent State may be 3-5 but three of their losses were against Power 5 schools in Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia. Additionally, another aspect of ATS value is the Golden Flashes have just 2-2 in-conference, and have not won a game by seven points or more. That ends today as the Golden Flashes defeat Ball State handily.

The product displayed on a week to week basis may be bottom five in the league from the Green Bay Packers. Sure they may have three wins but they’re struggling to muster any type of offense. In what seemed like a great prime time game before the season, has likely turned into a true barometer test on how poor the Pacers have declined. Buffalo is one a few elite teams that does not take any opponent lightly. This should get ugly. Take Buffalo.

In sports we have seen the theme of a team making in-season moves that would appear to make a team worse, but in all actuality they get better. Firing Matt Rhule, the injury to Baker Mayfield, and trading offensive starters has made the Panthers a more of a team. They’re playing sound football and took a big leap forward in their win last week against the Buccaneers. Atlanta is not trustworthy as this big of a favorite. Take the underdog in Carolina.

A four game win streak for the New York Jets may have been more of a fortunate schedule than on the field performance. They faced two backup quarterbacks from the Dolphins and Denver, and also rookie Kenny Pickett’s first start in the NFL. Sunday, expect an angry Patriots team after Monday’s embarrassment against the Bears. Take the road favorite in New England to beat the Jets at their own game.

For weeks South Alabama’s decline has been evident with a string of ATS losses. Until last week’s loss against Troy they were able to still win outright but could not muster offense against Troy’s stingy defense. Saturday, expect the Jaguars to finally click on both sides of the football against a poor Arkansas State team. Take South Alabama.

Florida International surged in a rare offensive outburst last week to the tune of thirty four points against Charlotte. Friday, expect an offense to return back to lower levels. Prior to their win against Charlotte the Panthers had averaged just 11 points during a span of five games. Take Louisiana Tech even amidst uncertainty on who the starting quarterback will be. 

Sometimes a key loss is a wake up call for a team. With the Broncos losing Russell Wilson this week against the Jets, the entire team now needs to step up in different areas. As great as the Jets have been the challenge of being on the road consecutive weeks is a daunting task. Expect miscues to occur whether via special teams, turnovers from second year quarterback Zach Wilson, or blown defensive assignments. Take the Broncos as the home underdog.

The love affair with the Atlanta Falcons from an ATS stand point can finally wane. Sunday it comes to an end against a Bengals team that will be primed for a good performance. They survived playing a very difficult part of their schedule with four of their past five on the road. This may have the typical pattern of a Bengals game that is mundane for the first half and a portion of the early third, but look for the Bengals to turn it on when it matters. Buy the hook and lay the points.

It’s apparent that Browns backup Jacoby Brissett is struggling as of late. He made a key unnecessary interception late in the Chargers game, and could not muster anything against his former team in the Patriots last week. Cleveland has now dropped three straight but are not a typical 2-4 team. Look for a performance as the Browns hold within the spread.

The difficult season for Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies finally took a turn for the worst. The Aggies have lost consecutive games and are just .500 after being ranked sixth in September. They’ve now had a full week off since their last game just like their opponent today in South Carolina. Expect the Aggies to finally play a game indicative of their pre-season hype, as they pull out a road victory over Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks. 

A week off at the right time can be a big catalyst over a top conference team. Boise State just started to have the balance on both sides of the football before their week off, and head into tonight’s showdown against Air Force 3-0 in-conference. They’re a confident team that should raise their level of play on the road against the experience of Air Force. Take Boise as they challenge Air Force to their first home loss this year. 

Georgia Southern is coming off their first Sun Belt conference victory in last week’s upset over 25th ranked James Madison. Starting quarterback Kyle Vantrease broke out in the game with 578 passing yards. Today the Golden Eagles will attempt to end a three game road losing streak against Old Dominion.  They’ll get the job done as the Monarchs step back after last week’s shocking outright blowout win over Coastal Carolina. Play Georgia Southern.

Two weeks ago the Houston Cougars had one of the more improbable comebacks in a late thriller over the Memphis Tigers. Saturday, look for the Cougars to build off of that and their bye week to have road success against Navy. Navy at just 2-4 is trending downward and does not have the defense to keep up with the Cougars for four quarters. Take Houston.

Tonight a small spread exists in a Conference USA clash between the home team of Western Kentucky and UAB. The Hilltoppers have the flash offense as they average forty points per game, but UAB’s defense gives up just seventeen points per game. I do expect Western Kentucky’s offense to have production but not to the degree they need to be comfortable against the Blazers. Take UAB as they small underdog.

The Sun belt has continued to deliver as a solid smaller conference and tonight will have a marquee matchup between Troy and South Alabama. The Jaguars have shown a bit of vulnerability from an ATS stand point in consecutive weeks. They were sloppy in both close victories over UL Monroe and UL-Lafayette. Troy has the offensive playbook to continue to give South Alabama’s defense problems. Play the road team in the Trojans.

Monday is an opportunity for the Denver Broncos to get to .500 and take advantage of the easiest portion of their schedule. Following tonight the Broncos will face the Jets, Jaguars, have a bye week, and then the Titans. I expect the Broncos to hang around in this game as the Chargers are coming off consecutive road games in Houston and Cleveland. Take the Broncos as their prime time woes subside at least from an ATS stand point. 

The Baltimore Ravens already won and covered the spread earlier this season at MetLife Stadium against the New York Jets. Sunday, they’ll aim to win at MetLife Stadium once again but against the New York Giants. It’s truly amazing to see the Giants be at 4-1, but Baltimore will be a huge obstacle for them. The Ravens showed that they are playing better defense after a solid performance last Sunday against the Bengals. They also have that extra gear when it’s time to make winning plays led by quarterback Lamar Jackson. Take the Ravens as the road favorites to knock off the Giants.

The Baltimore Ravens already won and covered the spread earlier this season at MetLife Stadium against the New York Jets. Sunday, they’ll aim to win at MetLife Stadium once again but against the New York Giants. It’s truly amazing to see the Giants be at 4-1, but Baltimore will be a huge obstacle for them. The Ravens showed that they are playing better defense after a solid performance last Sunday against the Bengals. They also have that extra gear when it’s time to make winning plays led by quarterback Lamar Jackson. Take the Ravens as the road favorites to knock off the Giants.

Florida State has dropped consecutive games for the first time this season. Close wins against Louisville and LSU have shaded their record a tad. Although Florida State is a bit dinged up they have a knack of hanging around even with an ugly offensive display. Back the Seminoles in front of their home crowd getting a generous 4.5 points. 

Blowing a game that was in hand usually can haunt a team into their next game. Memphis had one of the worst meltdowns of the season in their last game a 33 to 32 loss to Houston. Look for East Carolina to be aggressive after scoring just nine points in last weeks loss against Tulane. At home grab the Pirates to win by a touchdown or more against the Memphis Tigers. 

Although Wisconsin’s season has not went their way theirs pales in comparison to the weekly new lows of Michigan State. The Spartans have dropped four straight and every loss in-conference has been by double figures. Take Wisconsin to build off their thirty five point victory over Northwestern, and win a second consecutive road game. 

TCU has survived a gauntlet of tough matchups and done so by covering the spread. They are one of two teams in division one football that has yet to not cover a spread. Ironically, Saturday they will face an Oklahoma State team that throttled them last season 63 to 17. The Cowboys success running the football in that contest is something they can carry over on the road Saturday. Take the Cowboys plus the points.

A potential obstacle in Coastal Carolina’s way may very well be Sun Belt newcomer in Old Dominion. Thus far this season Old Dominion has played better against higher level competition. In week one they defeated Virginia Tech 20 to 17, and also played Virginia to a close two point loss. Look for the Monarchs to be ready to test Coastal Carolina’s non competitive schedule. Grab the points with the underdog in Old Dominion. 

For three straight games SMU has vastly under produced in losses to Maryland, TCU, and Central Florida. Friday lies an opportunity for the Mustangs to utilize extra rest over Navy as SMU played last Wednesday. At home I expect the Mustangs to continue their surge of points against Navy as they scored 31 in last year’s contest and 51 two seasons ago. Grab the Mustangs to pull through on the double digit spread. 

The Chiefs will try and win consecutive prime time games after defeating the Buccaneers last Sunday. They’ll face a Vegas Raiders team that finally gained a win last week but still showed some grey areas against a struggling Broncos team. Although they are 0-2 on the road they had shown a knack for playing in close games. All three of their losses have been by six points or less. Take the full touchdown here on the Raiders. 

The 49ers once again toppled the LA Rams in front of a nationally televised prime time audience. The offense did just enough under Jimmy Garopollo but the story was how stout the defense was in preventing a Rams touchdown. Yet, Carolina is playing their third straight road game and in desperation mode. Take the points here and buy the hook to seven. 

The Chargers showcased last week against the Texans that they still lack the ability to play for four complete quarters. They let a double-digit comfortable lead quickly falter with poor defense and a special teams miscue. Yet, the Browns are a good matchup for them and I expect the Chargers to clean up the sloppiness from their second half against the Texans. Take the Chargers to win their second straight on the road.

Saturday night’s Mountain West game will feature Fresno State minus Jake Haener once again. Last week without Haener the Fresno State offense looked lost as quarterback Logan Fife struggled. He should get some help this week from his teammates that are in a more familiar environment and matchup against conference opponent Boise State. 

It’s strange to see UConn as a favorite in football in the month of October. It was not pretty but they gained a big home win last week against Fresno State as steep underdogs. Saturday, they’ll face an FIU team that’s defense surrendered 37 points to Bryant, 41 to Texas State, and 73 to Western Kentucky. Back the Huskies to get over .500 and pull off an important program building road victory.

UTEP’s Gavin Hardison has the big quarterback experience edge over Louisiana Tech’s Parker McNeil. The problem is Hardison has been turnover prone throughout his collegiate career and susceptible to taking sacks. With UTEP being on the road a second straight week there should be concern of the Miners losing the turnover battle. Grab the under performing Bulldogs to grab their first win over a division one school this season. 

TCU has soared into the top twenty five with big wins over SMU and Oklahoma that cruised past the ATS number. This week they’ll face another new rising top twenty five program in Kansas. One can’t discount the Jayhawks rise for a program that never sees this type of play in the football program. Yet, TCU has begun to click on all cylinders and look like a team that will not hold back. Take TCU as their offense is to much for the Jayhawks.  

The Houston Cougars have been a team downtrending ever since beginning the season with a triple overtime and double overtime games. They’re lucky that they are not 1-4 overall. A positive is they have a knack for playing in close games, as three of their five games have went to overtime. Friday’s marquee game against Memphis is the type of game you can expect the Cougars to be ready for. Look for Houston to challenge Memphis’s four-game win streak. Play Houston. 

The LA Chargers continue to not be able to shake the year over year label of inconsistencies. Now they’re plagued with a combination of injuries that could derail their season. In week four though this is a beneficial spot against the Texans. Houston plays a conservative style that allowed the Colts and Broncos to come back from deficits. Take the Chargers to take their frustrations out on the Texans.

There is concern for the Bills and the way that their offense looked against the Dolphins. Regrouping in another tough road spot will be an immense challenge at Baltimore. With how much weight of the offense that is on Lamar Jackson’s shoulders, there should be some opportunities for the Bills defense to boost their offense. Take Buffalo in what will still not be a Buffalo type game, but nonetheless they’ll win the 50/50 type plays. Grab Buffalo.

All season long oddsmakers have had trouble with the number with Western Kentucky. After a ridiculous 73-0 victory last week against Florida International, the eyes are now on Hilltoppers quarterback Austin Reed. Reed has had no issue transferring in from a division II school, but there are bumps in the road for every player. Look for Reed to take a step back this week against a Troy defense that was stingy against Marshall. Grab the road team plus the points.

Even in a loss last week Washington State showed they have something special to build forward on with quarterback Cameron Ward. The sophomore dazzled on the big stage against Oregon, and put himself on the map nation wide. Still look for the California Bears to be able to neutralize what the Cougars want to do on both sides of the football. They’ll control the pace of play and keep this game within reach late. Take the Bears plus the points. 

South Alabama would be undefeated if not for a last second loss against UCLA. The Jaguars have the possibility to make some noise in the Sun Belt conference but will have to avoid a let down spot. Saturday on the road against UL Lafayette should pose an interesting challenge ATS-wise. South Alabama should continue to win but the challenge of covering steep numbers will be the issue here. Take the home underdog in UL Lafayette.

Last week the Buffalo Bulls ended a seven game losing streak by handily defeating Eastern Michigan, 50-31. Now for the second consecutive week they will aim to knock off a MAC opponent that is coming off defeating a Power 5 school. Look for the Bulls to accept the challenge as their offense continues to rise in play with quarterback Cole Snyder. Take the Bulls to topple the RedHawks who are coming off defeating Northwestern. 

Jumping up from American Conference football to the Big 12 was a huge leap for quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Thus far the pace and high level athletes has not deterred Gabriel as he has 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. That will be needed on the road against a TCU team that led from start to finish in last week’s victory over SMU. Expect a lot of points but for the Sooners to have the answers in a hostile road environment. Take Oklahoma.

Friday nights in the Pac-12 begins with a stellar matchup of two undefeated teams. The Washington Huskies have ascended to fifteenth in the country at 4-0, and will face a dynamic Bruins team led by fifth year senior quarterback in Dorian Thompson Robinson. Under new first year Coach Kalen DeBoer the Huskies have a new level of play and confidence. Take the road team Huskies to win their first road game this season.

After two road games to begin the season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will finally host a home game in week three. It will be against a Packers team they have had success against with a blowout regular season win and NFC championship game upset two seasons ago. Even though the Buccaneers are 2-0, they have had issues in the red zone converting touchdowns. Look for the Packers to match their level of intensity and get the road win Sunday.

A new team that surges forth to new expectations should not knock down their opponent. This is the case with Philadelphia crushing the Vikings Monday Night Football. For the Vikings they will move forward and face a divisional opponent for the second time in two weeks. I expect Minnesota to execute their game plan much more fluidly as they did against the Packers week one. Take the Vikings as Detroit sustains their first ATS loss of the season.

Two of the worst rated division one teams will square off tonight as Hawaii travels to face New Mexico State. The Aggies have been trounced in every phase and have scored just three touchdowns their first four games. Tonight that should change against Hawaii’s poor defense. With New Mexico State being an independent school they have scheduled the easier portion of their schedule where conference play normally would be. Take New Mexico State.

If there is a team and coach that has big time pressure to respond off a bad loss it is Michigan State and Coach Tucker. They showed up late but the final score of 39 to 28 was not indicative of how poor the Spartans played against Washington. Now back at home they’ll face a Minnesota team that has a ton of experience and will be hungry to showcase themselves on the road. Take Minnesota as Michigan State is the team that was ranked improperly and will continue to falter. 

TCU Horned Frogs senior quarterback Max Duggan will get his last chance at toppling SMU. In two other career starts against SMU the Horned Frogs could not pull through in close contests. This includes aU 42-34 loss last season. In that contest they did intercept SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai three times, which is the most he has had in one game. Look for the Horned Frogs to battle the road elements and squeak out a win.

Through two weeks the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been protected by their sound defense. In week one they forced several turnovers from Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow. In Sunday’s contest the Patriots simplicity kept the Steelers comfortable offensively. In Thursday’s game look for the Browns to heavily feature their ground game and screen offense to get an early lead. That will force the Steelers hand offensively, which in turn will lead to Steelers miscues or short fields for Cleveland. Take the home team in the Browns. 

Two teams with opposite records will clash Thursday in the Sun Belt as Coastal Carolina travels to face Georgia State. Two of Georgia State’s losses are acceptable as they faced two power five teams in North Carolina and South Carolina. The inexcusable loss was this past Saturday as the Panthers lost as twenty point favorites outright to Charlotte. Expect Shawn Elliott to have his team much more prepared against a familiar opponent in Sun Belt rival Coastal Carolina. They’ll cover as the home underdog, as they take down Grayson McCall in the Chanticleers. 

Grading a team that loses outright as a big road favorite is one of the common over reactions assessing NFL ATS. This is boosted even more after week one of the NFL season. San Francisco played in poor conditions in Chicago and are still bringing along inexperienced quarterback Trey Lance. Expect the game plan to unfold much better at home against a divisional opponent in the Seahawks.

The New York Jets stock pile of injuries on both sides of the football made them look like the same New York Jets week one. Offensively it will be a challenge to muster much through the passing game with Joe Flacco, but I think they can work on establishing the run game against the Browns. This spread is a bit too high even against the Browns stout rushing attack. Take the Jets getting the 6.5.

It does not get any easier for the Aggies after a surprising loss to Appalachian State last week. They’ll now take on the Hurricanes with even tougher opponents in SEC play ahead on their schedule. A year ago this matchup would have been too big of a moment for Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Tonight look for the Hurricanes to take that program step forward, and cover a generous six points on the road. Play Miami.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will have the benefit of extended rest for Saturday’s matchup against Indiana. They did not play last week and the prior week faced one of the worst teams in division one football in Hawaii. While Indiana has been a slow first half team they should have an advantage against a Hilltoppers team that has been susceptible to the pass. Take Indiana to finally play two halves of solid football. 

A pattern with teams on the obvious decline is predictable where their season will end. Often times though a team with lowered expectations such as the Pittsburgh Steelers will create a glimmer early in the season. After losing to the Bengals by double digits of fourteen and thirty-one, this is a chance for the defense to be motivated and let their offense take the safe approach. Take the points here with the Steelers. 

The Miami Dolphins reloaded in all areas on the field and on the sidelines. Meeting new expectations at home can be a hard burden to shoulder especially against a division opponent. The Patriots don’t have the top to bottom roster that exudes the standard of past teams, but they have the coaching pedigree to get the edge when it matters most. They will keep it close enough that if the spread comes into play you will be happy to have the full three and a half. Take New England.

Laying a big number on the road is always a tricky spot in the NFL especially in week one. For Baltimore game one is important because of how bad their season free failed last year. After October third they won just one road game the remaining of the season, and lost six straight to conclude the year. Even against a much improved Jets team look for the Ravens to execute in detail in all phases, and push enough past this number. Take Baltimore.