Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-23-16 | Dodgers -119 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
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07-23-16 | Angels v. Astros -180 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
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07-22-16 | Rays v. A's -114 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
9* Oakland (10:05 ET): Well, one selection that did not work out for me was the A's last night. They quickly fell behind 2-0, but actually did come back to take a brief 3-2. It was all downhill from there though as the Rays were responsible for the game's final five runs and won 7-3. But I believe tonight will be different. The Rays still don't scare me as they were just 2-12 here in July prior to a current three-game win streak. They'd also lost 11 straight road games. Like Tampa Bay, Oakland is a last place team, but at home they should be able to take care of business. A's rookie Sean Manea certainly faced a steep learning curve in this his rookie season. But after a rough first few outings, he's generally been a lot better. In fact, he hasn't allowed a run in two of his last three starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his last six. One thing is for certain and that's he'll be well-rested tonight as this is his first time pitching since the All-Star Break. The last time he started a game was July 10th and for seven innings he blanked a very hot Houston team (allowed only five hits). That's definitely an encouraging sign. Let's not forget that Tampa Bay has one of the lowest scoring offenses in the entire American League (only six runs ahead of lowest scoring team). The Rays are going w/ Jake Odorizzi and he's coming off one of his better outings of the season. But his ERA/WHIP over his L3 starts are still 7.16 and 1.592 respectively, which should tell you something right there (hint: the other two starts were very bad). Odorizzi did not fare well when he faced Oakland earlier this year, giving up five runs in just four innings of work. The A's took two of three in that series at Tropicana Field, so theoretically they should be able to manage at least a split here at home this weekend. 9* Oakland |
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07-22-16 | Angels v. Astros -149 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): Something I did not anticipate writing a week ago is that the Los Angeles Angels are currently the hottest team in all of baseball. They've won all six games since the All-Star Break, sweeping the White Sox and Rangers. Against the former, it was all about the pitching as they held Chicago to just one run in three games. Versus the latter, it was the offense that carried the team by scoring 24 runs. But here they are running into an opponent that has been the equivalent of their "kryptonite" in 2016, that being division rival Houston. Since losing 7-2 to the Halos back on May 27th, the Astros have beaten them eight straight times, including six straight wins back at the end of June. I like them to win again tonight and thus cool off the hottest team in baseball. Though they've won these last six games (I had them on Wednesday), I'm not ready to change my overall view of this Angels ballclub. They remain nine games below .500 and I do not see them working their way back into playoff contention. The pitching we saw vs. the White Sox and hitting we saw vs. Texas are both likely to regress moving forward. Five times this year, they've been held to two runs or fewer by Astros pitching. At the same time, Houston's offense has scored seven or more runs four times. The Astros, 7-0 winners in their last game, have been one of the AL's hottest teams over the last two months, going 33-16 L49 games. Injuries to the starting rotation will ultimately catch up with the Angels. Matt Shoemaker is now the de facto ace. While he's coming off his 1st career shutout, his TSR for the year is only 6-12 and he sports a 5.01 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in nine road starts. That's not very encouraging. I expect Shoemaker to be outdueled tonight by Lance McCullers, who has a 2.35 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels. McCullers faced them once earlier this year and allowed just one run in 5 2/3 innings. The Under is a perfect 7-0 in his home starts this season and obviously he's played a major role in that w/ a 2.61 ERA here at Minute Maid Park. I'm not buying this Angels team at all and think this win streak is simply a mirage. 8* Houston |
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07-22-16 | Giants -107 v. Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (7:05 ET): The Giants went into the All-Star Break with the most wins in all of MLB, but they have lost all five of their games in the second half, all out on the road. That includes one w/ Madison Bumgarner on the bump as the big southpaw uncharacteristically allowed four runs against the Padres exactly one week ago. But, for a number of reasons, I'm betting big on the NL West leaders snapping this season-worst losing skid of theirs. Obviously, they have Bumgarner and the rest he has vs. the rest counterpart Masahiro Tanaka has is a very big deal. More on that later. Speaking of rest, the Giants had yesterday off while the Yankees had to play the Orioles and lost 4-1 (I had Baltimore). For the second straight day, I'm going against the guys in pinstripes. |
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07-22-16 | Indians -107 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
9* Cleveland (7:05 ET): I took Baltimore yday, but if you look at the analysis, you'll note that I explicitly stated I don't have a ton of faith in this team long-term. I also didn't have much regard for their Thursday opponent (Yankees), but I certainly have a ton of respect for the team they welcome into Camden Yards this week, Cleveland. The Indians are the best team in the American League from where I sit as they have the best record (56-38) and run differential (+95). This series is not a good matchup for the Orioles right now as their lineup, which has been ravaged by injury and a nasty flu bug, will have to contend with the best starting rotation in the American League. I look for the Tribe to take tonight's series opener. Another key edge for the Indians this weekend is they won't be facing Baltimore's best pitcher, Chris Tillman, who started yday. As mentioned above, I went w/ Tillman and the O's against the Yankees as they avoided what would have been an embarrassing four-game sweep in the Bronx. Take Tillman starts out of the equation and Baltimore actually has a losing record this season (one game below .500). This team simply lacks the horses in the starting rotation. Another problem though is that since the All-Star Break, they are simply not hitting. In the seven games, they have scored only 14 runs and are batting a collective .196. A big reason for that is a stomach bug that has ravaged the club house, taking Chris Davis and Manny Machado (returned Thurs) out of the lineup. Even skipper Buck Showalter was affected. Also, Hyun Soo-Kim, Adam Jones, Joey Rickard and Matt Wieters are all players dealing w/ various injuries. Having a slumping lineup is never a good thing, but especially when getting set to face this awesome Cleveland rotation. Up first in this series will be Trevor Bauer. Though Bauer's numbers from his last two starts are less than ideal, note that he'd allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his first 12. Like most Indians starters, Bauer has good strikeout numbers and this Baltimore lineup tends to swing and miss a lot. I certainly like Bauer's chances here facing off against rookie starter Dylan Bundy, who was rocked in his big-league debut, giving up four runs in just 3 1/3 IP. The Indians just won B2B games in Kansas City, which is no small feat, and have the benefit of having had Thursday off. 9* Cleveland |
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07-21-16 | Rays v. A's -124 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
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07-21-16 | Orioles -103 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:05 ET): Though I do not have a ton of faith in the Orioles long-term, I do believe they'll avoid the sweep today in the Bronx as they send their most successful starter to the bump. Chris Tillman may not have the greatest ERA or WHIP (though both numbers are certainly satisfactory) over the course of the season, but the bottom line is him having a 17-3 team start record, the result of which is a +15.2 net unit gain, the best in all of baseball. Tillman has also been outstanding lately w/ a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP his L3 starts as he's gone exactly 7 IP every time out while allowing just 1 ER (on only 12 hits). I look for Tillman to "do what he does" and that's lead Baltimore to the win. One pitcher that has NOT performed well lately is CC Sabathia. The old hefty lefty was actually a really nice story through mid-June, but his L5 starts have been a disaster. In those five, he's allowed a ghastly total of 27 runs in just 28 1/3 IP. Outside of one start against the slumping White Sox, he's failed to record more than three K's in any other outing. He's allowed 39 hits and 10 walks in those last 28 1/3 innings of work. He has a 7.41 ERA and 1.824 WHIP his L3 starts. Obviously, the Yankees bullpen has been tremendous, but I think the damage will be done by the time they are called into duty Thursday afternoon. Another interesting tidbit is that today is Sabathia's birthday. He has a 7.48 ERA in four career starts on his b-day. It would of course be nice if Tillman could get the kind of offensive support he was getting in the early part of the season. In the last five games, the Orioles have scored a grand total of six runs. It's been four straight losses and they were shutout yday (just fourth time all season, 1st since May 18th). While injuries and a nasty flu bug going through the locker room have certainly played roles in the recent offensive decline, the bottom line is that Baltimore has still had their fair share of chances to get runners home. But they've gone a woeful 3 for 33 w/ RISP since the All-Star Break, including 1 for 9 yday. The bottom third of the order was 0 for 9 Wednesday and can only improve today. This offense still ranks 2nd in slugging and 5th in team batting average overall (eighth in runs scored). 8* Baltimore |
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07-20-16 | Rangers v. Angels -138 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It speaks volumes that the first place Rangers find themselves in this price range, even on the road, against an Angels team that has Mike Trout and little else. But I've been poking holes in the Rangers' resume for some time now and will continue to as long as the numbers suggest I should. Note that they've lost both games here in Anaheim in high-scoring fashion (17 runs allowed) and now have only a +5 run differential for the year despite being 15 games over .500! They've regressed big-time here in July (just 4-11) while the Angels have actually come out of the Break red hot, winning all five games. I concur w/ the money line here and will call for the Halos to sweep! It should be noted that the Angels were slight favorites on the ML for the first two games as well. The reason for the increase tonight isn't just the fact they've taken those first two games, but also because they are sending a red hot pitcher to the mound, that being Hector Santiago. Over his last three starts, Santiago has allowed all of one run and it was unearned. He is currently working on a 22 inning scoreless streak and he looked absolutely dominant against the White Sox his last time out w/ 76 percent of his pitches going for strikes (7-0 KW rate) plus he induced 13 ground ball outs. Meanwhile, the Rangers pitching staff is in shambles right now and tonight's starter Martin Perez has played a role in that by allowing 17 runs in his last two starts (12 earned) in only 9 2/3 IP. On the road this season, Perez is just 1-5 w/ a 5.49 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. Remember what I said about Texas' run differential not matching its record? Well, the same could be said for the Angels, only the reverse is true. While they are still 10 games under .500, they have now actually outscored opponents (by 1 run) over the course of the season. So, to summarize, despite being 12.5 games back in the standing, the Angels have a nearly identical price range to the Angels. That says to me that they absolutely belong in this price range, particularly w/ Santiago pitching. Plus, Texas is due to keep "giving some back" after being - by far - the most profitable team to bet on in the first half. 8* LA Angels |
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07-20-16 | Indians -135 v. Royals | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (2:15 ET): For the first all season, the Indians were able to win a game here at Kauffman Stadium yday. They were previously 0-4 here in Kansas City and overall homefield advantage has played a big role in determining the winner of Indians-Royals games this year. Before yday's result, the home team had been 10-1. That's right in line w/ the overall home-road split we've seen from the Royals this season as they are 30-14 at home, but 17-32 on the road. This all might sound like I'm making a case for KC then this afternoon, but I'm not, as the homefield edge isn't as strong as Cleveland sending Carlos Carrasco to the bump. The Royals, remember, are a team I believe is going to slip here in the second half of the season. |
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07-20-16 | Braves v. Reds -169 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
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07-19-16 | White Sox -107 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
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07-19-16 | Mets v. Cubs -132 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): Yes, I'm backing the Cubs again Tuesday and the rationale will essentially remain the same despite a different (more marquee) pitching matchup. I'll say this again - the Cubs are the best team in baseball & it's not even close. Just look at that run differential (+148)! Last night saw them beat the Mets for the first time in nine tries, which includes LY's NLCS as well as a four-game series earlier this month at Citi Field. I said the revenge angle would be strong here and it was w/ Jon Lester delivering a big-time quality start. Now, it's an even bigger gun that the Northsiders will be sending to the mound, Jake Arrieta, whose recent "struggles" are not a concern to me. Given the Mets hitting woes that I went through in yday's analysis, Arrieta is probably a pitcher they'd probably not face. Now they have beaten him the last two times they've seen him, in LY's NLCS and earlier this month, but I expect a much different result this go-around. He has a 1.65 ERA at home, for starters. The team is citing the All-Star Break and the rest they got as a real positive. It certainly has been for the pitching, which has allowed 1 or 0 ER in all three wins since the Break. With Arrieta, he's had a full 10 days off between starts. Remember, Lester had been shelled the last time he'd faced the Mets, then dominated them Monday. I think a similar transformation will be in order for Arrieta, who still has a 13-5 TSR mind you. The Mets are just 28th in runs scored, both on the road and overall. So, they'll be leaning heavily on Noah Syndergaard here. But Syndergaard's experienced his own fair share of trouble lately, namely failing to get past the fifth inning twice in his last three starts, both times against Washington. In between, he did pitch well against the Cubs. But those two bad starts leave his ERA/WHIP at 5.52/1.636 respectively his last three overall. I do not anticipate him getting much support here, which makes things even more difficult. These are two teams set to move in opposite directions here in the second half. This is a rather incredible price on the Cubs at home w/ Arrieta pitching. 8* Chi Cubs |
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07-18-16 | White Sox -144 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -144 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (10:10 ET): To say runs have been at a premium for the White Sox of late would be the mildest of understatements. They finally scored a run yesterday, but only a run (as in one), which followed three consecutive shutout losses dating back to the final game before the All-Star Break. It's not like the pitching of the Los Angeles Angels is typically to be feared, so the results of that series are pretty ominous for an offense that already ranked 24th in runs scored. But if they have one "ace" in the deck, it literally would be Chris Sale and he'll toe the rubber Monday against a Seattle team that scored all of two runs itself the last two games. Though Sale's numbers have dipped a bit recently, he'll be well rested here and in line for a strong outing. While Sale is off an embarrassing performance that saw him allow eight runs (in just five innings) to the Atlanta Braves, at least he has a strong career track record that we can base a play on. Like a 7-1 record and 0.959 WHIP in nine road starts this season. His strikeout numbers are down overall this year, but he does have 45 of them over his last six outings, in 40 IP. One would have to go all the way back to August of last season to find the last time Sale faced the Mariners, but it was a success as he beat Felix Hernandez here at Safeco Field, 11-4. Sale can certainly carry the White Sox to a victory, but I'm not sure there's a comparable starter left in the Mariners rotation that can do the same. This group is in shambles due to injuries, the most notable of which to King Felix, and there's some real journeymen currently doing "the heavy lifting." One such name is Wade LeBlanc, who is slated to be on the bump Monday. LeBlanc didn't last long his last time out, giving up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings to Houston on July 6th. That was a 9-8 loss for the team, who has now dropped seven of 10 as well as 28 of its last 46. Their YTD run differential is still pretty good (+41), especially for a team that's just .500, but in this instance I think the Mariners ship has sailed. In a game that promises to have little in the way of offense, I'm siding with the team that has - by far - the edge in starting pitching. 8* Chi White Sox |
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07-18-16 | Padres v. Cardinals -168 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This Cardinals team just can't seem to get fully on track. Sure, they won for me on Saturday (in shutout fashion), but they lost to Miami both the day before and after. That leaves them at a very disappointing 20-28 at home. For a frame of reference, that's a worse home record than what the lowly Reds have! Only two NL clubs - Atlanta and Arizona - have worse home records than what St. Louis currently sports. But there's a big-time caveat w/ the Redbirds' losing mark at Busch Stadium and that's they've actually outscored opponents here over the course of the season! I think they're actually in a great spot Monday drawing a Padres team in store for a letdown after a surprise sweep of the Giants. Conventional wisdom said that the Padres had waved the proverbial "white flag" on 2016 when they dealt Drew Pomeranz to Boston during the All-Star Break. But someone forgot to tell that to the existing players as they swept a Giants team that had previously beaten them nine straight times this year. I don't think anybody, myself included, saw that series result coming. But this is not a team known for ripping off extended win streaks. Looking over their entire season, there hasn't bee a single time that San Diego has won four straight games. There has been three instances of them winning three straight, but they've lost those next three games by a combined score of 11-3, getting shut out twice in the process. The sweep of the Giants was the team's first all season! Overall, the offensive numbers have been a bit better than expected this year (mainly thanks to Wil Myers), but overall this is the same sorry Padres team. Before yday, St. Louis pitching had (mostly) been getting the job done, holding opposing hitters to a .204 average and 3.0 runs over a seven-game stretch. Michael Wacha failed to get the job done yday, but I think Mike Leake will here today. Leake has a much better WHIP than ERA, especially here at home, indicating he's been more "unlucky" than "bad." Meanwhile, Padres starter Christian Friedrich has simply been the latter of late w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP his L3 starts, all losses. He's gone longer than six innings just twice all year. With a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and has given up the fourth most runs, that's a problem. 8* St. Louis |
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07-18-16 | Mets v. Cubs -158 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): I took the Cubs in the opener of their previous series, which ended up being a 6-0 win over the Rangers. They won the following day too, 3-1, but then dropped Sunday's finale to Cole Hamels by a score of 4-1. But despite that single loss, I will continue to maintain that this is - by far and away - the best team in baseball. They have the run differential (+144) to prove it. The fact that they won a series against the Rangers (+11 run differential) did not surprise me. This series, at least based on previous results, could prove to be a bit more difficult. After sweeping last year's regular season series (7 for 7) against the Mets, they have now lost eight in a row to the reigning Senior Circuit champs, having been swept in LY's NLCS and then again at Citi Field earlier this month. But I've always been a big proponent of the revenge angle. I'm taking the Cubs Monday, at home, in a big ESPN game. After four consecutive starts out on the road, Jon Lester will certainly be happy to be back at the Friendly Confines. The worst of those four starts came in Queens where he allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 innings. That start and his last one (at Pittsburgh) have seen Cubs opponents combine to score 26 runs. But Lester is having a great year here at Wrigley w/ a 2.32 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in eight starts (6-2 TSR). Note he had allowed just 24 ER total in his first 16 starts this season. He'll surely pitch better here than he did the last time against the Mets, which happened to be a career-worst performance, both in terms of runs allowed and innings lasted. The Cubs didn't generate a ton of offense against the Rangers, but the good news is they won't need much against the Mets' futile lineup. New York comes into this series ranked 28th in runs scored and 29th in team batting average. Last year, they were quite strong offensively on the road, but that's no longer the case as they are 28th in runs scored there as well. Stephen Matz will go Monday for the Metropolitans. His WHIP is a little higher than you'd typically like to see, especially of late. The team is just 2-5 his last seven starts and Matz's ERA/WHIP is 4.87/1.50 during that time. His rotation mate Jacob deGrom was quite kind to me Sunday, but that was against the sorry Phillies. This is the Cubs and like virtually all other situations, they excel vs. lefty starters w/ a 21-10 record, averaging 5.3 rpg. 8* Chi Cubs |
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07-17-16 | Dodgers -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -163 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The old adage that "there's no place like home" certainly does NOT apply to the D'backs and Chase Field this season as the team has a terrible 16-33 home record. That's after winning yday mind you, 2-1 over the Dodgers. Atlanta (who is essentially a 'quadruple A' team at this point) is the only team w/ a worse home record than Arizona. The Dodgers came here and took Friday's series opener, 13-7, before losing close last night (in 12 innings). Embroiled in a tight battle for the NL Wild Card, Los Angeles simply can't afford to drop another game to the last place team in their division. They outhit Arizona last night (10-8) and were actually just one out away from a 1-0 victory (before giving up game-tying run w/ two outs in the bottom of the ninth). I like the much better team to respond here. Kenta Maeda started the year strong, then hit a brief rough patch and now is clearly back on track. The Dodgers righty has allowed 2 ER or less in seven of his past nine starts and his last one before the All-Star Break might have been his most masterful as he struck out 13 Padres en route to an easy 3-1 victory. He allowed just two hits in seven innings and didn't walk anybody either. This will be Maeda's third time facing Arizona this year and while he didn't get the win the first time, he also didn't allow a single run in 6 IP. The next time did see Maeda win as he gave up two runs in 5 1/3 IP. His TSR over his L10 outings is 7-3 and he has a 0.94 WHIP on the road for the season. The main reason why the Dodgers lost last night was that they went 1 for 15 w/ RISP. They have 28 hits in the first two games of the series, including a season-high for a game (18) in Friday's opener. I like the offense's chances here today against Robbie Ray, who over his last three starts has a 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP. His TSR, not surprisingly, is 0-3. Over the course of the season, his numbers are very similar at home, which is emblematic of how the team struggles to win here at Chase Field. Visiting teams are averaging nearly 6.0 rpg at this park and I should also mention that the Dodgers are 16-7 in day games thanks to averaging 5.1 rpg themselves. 8* LA Dodgers |
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07-17-16 | Mets -168 v. Phillies | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:35 ET): The Mets are looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss yday to the Phillies. Something I've been harping on all year is the Phillies' record in one-run games, which is now 20-9, the best such win percentage in the entire National League (They are also 5-0 in extra inning games). How fortunate! While Saturday saw them win by two runs, I still think that a discussion of the Phils' record in one-run games is pretty pertinent b/c it illustrates just how lucky they should feel about being within six games of .500. Consider that in games not decided by one run, Philly is just 23-40 and been outscored by 76 runs! I've said it all year; this is one of the worst teams in baseball and I expect the Mets to bounce back Sunday afternoon. The Mets have only managed to split eight games vs. the Phillies this year.Two of the losses were by one run, not surprisingly. But they did win the one start of Jacob deGrom back in April as he held the Phils to just one run and five hits in six innings of work. It's been another effective year for deGrom (2.61 ERA, 1.108 WHIP), although his team start record is only 8-7. But lately, the results have been all positive as the team has won each of his L3 starts w/ deGrom holding Atlanta, Chicago and Miami to just three runs total (all coming on solo HR's) in 20 IP (has 20 K's). I think the organization's decision to have him skip Tuesday's All-Star Game was a wise one. He'll be taking the mound with a full TEN days rest here, so the increased velocity we saw towards the end of the first half should still be present today. At the plate, last night's game marked just the second time in 14 games that the Mets didn't hit a home run. In the field, it was a throwing error that led to the go-ahead run for Philadelphia in the seventh inning. The fielding issue is easy to rectify and as for the power outage, they'll be facing a pitcher here (Zach Eflin) that has given up five HR's in six starts. Only one start has seen Eflin strike out more than three batters. I'm simply unwilling to buy into a Phillies team that has been outscored by 1.2 rpg here at home. deGrom is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Phillies w/ a 3.03 ERA. 8* NY Mets |
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07-16-16 | Giants -170 v. Padres | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -170 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:40 ET): By dealing Drew Pomeranz to Boston during the All-Star Break, San Diego effectively "waved the white flag" on the 2016 season. Not that anyone thought they were going to make a run in the second half, but the trade made the front office's intentions pretty clear (Note: they did net themselves an outstanding prospect, Anderson Espinoza, who is being hailed by some as the "next Pedro Martinez."). Interestingly, somebody "forgot" to tell the Padres players that the season was over as the team pulled out a somewhat shocking 4-1 win over Madison Bumgarner and the Giants last night here at home (were +205 on the ML!). But there's no denying who the better team is here and I expect San Fran to reassert itself this evening. The current price range suits the Giants just fine as they are 8-1 this season as a ML road favorite of -150 to -175. Usually, that range is reserved for when Bumgarner is starting, but offseason acquisition Jeff Samardzija continues to be effective as well. The team is 11-7 when he takes the mound and his last time out saw him give up just two runs and five hits in a 6-2 win over Arizona. I was on Samardzija and the Giants that day and see no reason to fade here. Samardzija is 6-1 lifetime vs. San Diego, including 3-0 this season. In three career starts here at Petco Park, his ERA is 1.95 and he's held the Padres to a .177 batting average. Last night marked the first time all season (in 10 games) that the Giants lost to their NL West rivals this season. Traditionally, San Diego is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball on a year to year basis. So far this season, they rank a modest 17th in runs scored. But a 24th place ranking in team batting average, 27th place ranking in OBP and 22nd place ranking in slugging all suggest that the number of runs scored are likely to decline moving forward. As detailed above, facing Samardzija does them no favors tonight. Outside of Wil Myers, there's really no one to fear in the Padres batting order. As far as their own starter goes, Luis Perdomo has hardly been impressive w/ a 6.11 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in seven starts. The Giants are seventh in baseball in runs scored on the road, so expect them to bounce back from last night's surprising one run performance. 8* San Francisco |
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07-16-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -159 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): What a frustrating year this has been for the Cardinals! It was another one-run loss last night, 7-6, to one of the teams they're competing w/ for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. That would be Miami, who is now two games up on the Redbirds in the standings despite having only a +2 run differential compared to St. Louis' +88 (3rd best in baseball!). Most frustrating of all for the Cards this year has been a now 19-27 home record (keep in mind they went 55-26 LY here at Busch Stadium!). They are also just 7-16 in one-run games. But I'll call for them to bounce back tonight behind Adam Wainwright, who has been a lot better over the course of the last month and a half. After allowing the fewest number of runs in all of MLB last season, regression was to be expected from the St. Louis pitching staff here in 2016. The drop has been pretty severe, but in the case of Wainwright, he's starting to bounce back. That includes six quality outings in his last seven starts overall, including B2B wins here at home. His last start prior to the Break saw him go seven innings and allow only one run and five hits against a good offensive club (Pittsburgh). He shut Milwaukee out for seven frames in his start prior to that. In eight career starts vs. Miami, Wainwright has an ERA of 2.33. His career ERA of 3.05 after the All-Star Break is also an encouraging sign. St. Louis had a 6-5 lead entering the eighth last night, but the combination of a leaky defense and struggling bullpen again conspired to cost them. I believe that Wainwright is certainly capable of negating those two factors here tonight. Also, lost in the St. Louis' struggles is the fact that they have a top four offense in baseball (461 runs scored) and have hit a total of 121 home runs, including four last night. Miami's Tom Koehler has really struggled of late (7.50 ERA, 2.083 WHIP L3 starts) and I can see him putting his team in a big early hole here. The team had lost three straight Koehler starts before he got to pitch against the woeful Reds on Sunday. But a 16-11 KW ratio over his L5 starts isn't going to scare anybody and a career 7.86 ERA vs. the Cardinals is a bad sign as well. 8* St. Louis |
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07-15-16 | Rangers v. Cubs -191 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
5* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Though they have certainly "given some back" here in July (lost 8 of last 10 games), make no mistake about it, the Cubs were an absolute juggernaut in the first half of the season. They went into the Break w/ an incredible +139 run differential. That's 34 runs better than the #2 team (Washington) and 58 runs better than the top team from the American League (Cleveland). It is worlds better than the team w/ the AL's best record, Texas (+16), who I expect to regress in the second half. It is amazing to me that two teams w/ nearly identical records could have such disparate scoring differentials. In the lone Interleague series of the weekend, I'm siding with the contingent from the Senior Circuit. The Rangers hardly went into the Break playing their best baseball either. They won only three of their last 10 games and seven of those came against Minnesota, the worst team in the American League. Again, having a run differential of only +16 shows that they have overachieved greatly en route to a 54-36 record. The key to that record has been 19-7 mark in one-run games, which is easily the best win percentage in such games. Contrary to popular belief, that's luck not a skill. Texas is also a lot better at home (29-15) than on the road (25-21). After earning 55.0 units at the betting window since the start of last season, the Rangers are earmarked (by me) to start giving some back themselves. Friday's pitching matchup is heavily slanted towards the Cubs, at least in my opinion. Rangers starter Martin Perez has seen the team win eight of his last nine starts, but the last one is the one he lost and he did so in disastrous fashion by giving up 11 runs in four innings at Boston. While the Red Sox are the American League's top scoring team (490 runs scored), the Cubs have scored more than every NL team (460). Meanwhile, the Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks, who has a 6-2 TSR at Wrigley w/ a 1.56 ERA and 0.808 WHIP. The team has won his last four starts. Hendricks benefits here from the fact the Rangers will be w/o the DH in their batting order. 5* Chi Cubs |
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07-10-16 | Twins v. Rangers -160 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
8* Texas (3:05 ET): I have to say that I was quite surprised to see the Rangers lose to the Twins - again - yday. Yes, I am on the record as saying that the A.L. West leaders will likely regress in the second half. But Minnesota is an opponent that they should - theoretically - handle w/ ease. Somehow though, it is the Twins that are 4-2 head to head in the season series (+22 run differential!). Last night saw the road team emerge with an 8-6 victory thanks to a career day at the plate from Eddie Rosario. The issue for Texas is that they're not getting quality starts from the rotation, but I expect A.J. Griffin to get the job done today. The Rangers are 6-1 in Griffin's last seven starts w/ the right-hander posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. His last time out, they cashed big (+185 on the money line!) at Boston. Granted, Griffin made it only four innings, but he did his job. What's interesting is that this will be just the second time the team is favored this season w/ Griffin on the hill. Here at home though is where Griffin generally does his best work. In three starts in Arlington, he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.873 WHIP. Overall, the team is 29-14 at home this year. Another key is that they are 21-13 off a loss. Minnesota's Tom Milone has been pretty terrible. He has a 5.18 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in seven starts and is winless on the road w/ both the ERA and WHIP jumping. He is off perhaps his best showing all year, so I'd expect him to regress. That last start, which came Tuesday, was also at home against a pretty poor Oakland club. I just can't see the Twins beating the Rangers again. 8* Texas |
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07-10-16 | Reds v. Marlins -153 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:10 ET): Hopefully, you don't need me to point out that Cincinnati is a very bad baseball team. They now have a run differential of -150, which is 41 runs WORSE than the second worst team. To put the Reds current run diff in its proper perspective, consider that the worst in baseball last year was Atlanta's -187 and that was after 162 games. Cincy is being outscored by 1.7 rpg this year and that number jumps over 2.0 when they're on the road where their record is now 14-31 after yday's 4-2 loss. Today's starter Cody Reed certainly gives little reason to believe. This is a good price to go against the worst team in baseball. Miami has managed to keep itself "above water" in the first half. They will go into the Break above .500 and depending on what transpires today could even be tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They've held the Reds to just three runs in two games in this series. Today's starter Tom Koehler has had somewhat of an "up and down" season as he's lost each of his last three starts after winning his previous three. But in his last 10 starts, he's allowed more than 3 ER only twice. I have to imagine that trend continues here given the lack of offense we've seen from the Reds in the first two games. Something else that must always factored in when handicapping the Reds is just how horrible their bullpen is. This group has an unsightly 5.57 ERA and 1.590 WHIP. They have more blown saves than actual saves and give up an average of 2.5 runs per game! While the team did pick up a couple of wins against the Cubs earlier this week, I can't see them summoning up the desire to pick up a win on the road in the final game before the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Miami is 7-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range on the money line this year. 8* Miami |
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07-09-16 | Twins v. Rangers -110 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
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07-09-16 | Cubs -156 v. Pirates | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -156 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): It was going to be damn near impossible for the Cubs to maintain the torrid pace they set earlier this season, but they have have definitely "given some back" in recent days. They've actually now lost four straight and 8 of their last 10 games. But I always like to keep things in their proper perspective and the bottom line is that this team still has a +144 run differential (45 runs better than #2 team). After losing 8-4 last night here in Pittsburgh, I like the NL Central leaders to bounce back. The Cubs were in a bit of a bad spot last night as they had to play a make up game vs. Atlanta Thursday. Yes, I realize the Pirates were in St. Louis Thursday afternoon, but I'll still take that over a third opponent in three days (situation Cubs were facing). I am shocked - repeat shocked - that the Cubs had lost three in a row combined to the Reds & Braves (two worst teams in baseball). In a way, I wasn't as shocked yday as they were 8-1 head to head vs. Pittsburgh this season and probably "due" to drop one. But w/ Jon Lester on the bump tonight, I like their chances to reclaim their dominance over the Bucs. Lester has already faced this opponent three times in 2016. He's allowed just 4 ER in 18 1/3 IP and that includes shutting them out (for 5 2/3 IP) here at PNC Park. Now Lester is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing where he allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 IP in New York Sunday. Considering that's the same number of earned runs he'd allowed - combined - in his previous seven outings, I like his chances of bouncing back here. He should be well-rested after such a short outing as well. Pittsburgh will go w/ Chad Kuhl opposite Lester. Kuhl has won both of his starts so far - as an underdog - thereby turning a nice profit. But his ERA (4.09) and WHIP (1.364) aren't that impressive. Yes, the Pirates have won eight of nine while the Cubs have lost 16 of 25. But I was correct in bucking Pittsburgh Thursday and it should be pointed out they had to come from behind (scored five runs in 7th/8th innings) yday. 8* Chi Cubs |
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07-09-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Boston (4:05 ET): The Red Sox survived what will likely be their biggest challenge of this series, that being yday's Sean O'Sullivan vs. Chris Archer pitching matchup, coming away with a 6-5 victory. Having now won four of five, the pitching matchup is far more in Boston's favor today. Not that they need many more added advantages against a Rays team that has now dropped 20 of 23 games. Just 11-30 vs. teams w/ a winning record, Tampa Bay is simply just looking to get to the All-Star Break at this point. |
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07-08-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -149 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Arizona has played San Fran pretty tough in 2016 as the latter is only 6-5 head to head in the season series. Most interesting is that the D'backs pulled off the rare four-game sweep - as the road team - back in April. I talked about how tough that achievement is to pull off in yday's analysis on Pirates-Cardinals, where I backed the home team off three consecutive losses and sure enough, they came through. Alas, the Giants did not do the same when I played them on April 21st (w/ Johnny Cueto pitching!), but they've since taken five of six from their NL West rival and I have them winning again here in Friday's opener. These are two teams that I expect to grow further and further apart in the standings moving forward. Arizona's unusual home-road dichotomy extends far beyond just playing San Francisco. The team is coming off a pretty terrible 2-7 homestand and is now a horrendous 15-32 for the year at Chase Field. One of their two wins on the recently completed homestand came w/ tonight's starter Pat Corbin on the hill, against the Giants no less, but that turns this into an immediate revenge spot for Jeff Samardzija, who took the loss opposite Corbin on 7.2. Note Samardzija actually allowed fewer runs (4) than Corbin did (5) in last week's matchup, but the Giants bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth. "That is one we let get away," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. Agreed. Rather quietly, San Francisco has more wins than any other team in baseball right now. Texas could match them Thursday, but there's a lot more to like about a Giants club that ranks sixth in baseball in run differential. I can't say the same about Arizona, who is -44 in run differential and been one of the bigger disappointments in the entire National League this season (somewhat predictable, a lot of people saw that coming). With only four wins in 17 starts, Corbin gives you little to "hang your hat on" here and I expect Samardzija to get his revenge. SF has won 21 of 33 games this year when facing a LH starter and Arizona is giving up a ghastly 7.3 runs per game its previous seven contests. 8* San Francisco |
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07-08-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -170 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Note that this is being written prior to the completion of Thursday night's game, but regardless of the outcome there, I'll be backing the Blue Jays on Friday. Once again, what had been a red hot Tigers team (had won 6 straight!) was quickly extinguished by Cleveland earlier this week. Sure, Detroit did win 12-2 Wednesday afternoon, but that was only after dropping the first two games of the three-game set. Now they have to hit the road to take on another top American League contender, that being Toronto, who comes into this series riding its own five-game win streak. You'll recall that it was around this team last year that the Jays really "took flight" and I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened here in 2016. Their +64 run differential (entering Thurs) is second best in the entire A.L., behind only Cleveland. |
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07-07-16 | Yankees v. Indians -157 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -157 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians suffered a rare setback yday afternoon, losing 12-2 to the Tigers. While that was their second loss by 10+ runs since Sunday (lost 17-1 in Toronto), it should be noted that they've lost only one other time (Saturday, and I was on the right side there) in their last 19 games overall. They get to stay at home for the final series before the All-Star Break, against the Yankees, who were shut out last night in Chicago. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Outside of the back end of their bullpen, there's just no reason to fear the team wearing pinstripes any longer as they've been outscored by 32 runs this season and really should not be considered a playoff contender. I'd rank them as a bottom five team in the American League. Cleveland is the best that the AL has to offer. |
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07-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -151 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (1:45 ET): Last week, I rode the Cardinals in every game en route to a three-game sweep of the Brewers. This series has proven to be far more difficult as they've dropped the first three games to the Pirates, who are now winners of seven in a row, all on the road. But pulling off a four-game sweep on the road is hard to do and I think the Bucs come up short this afternoon. Pittsburgh has been very impressive over the course of its win streak (outscored opp by 3.3 rpg), but they have a losing record in day games and will turn to an unknown commodity on the mound in the form of Tyler Glasnow. The line moving makes this a great value play on the home team today. We'll need Adam Wainwright to step up here, much in the same way he did for us against Milwaukee last weekend. Pitching here at Busch Stadium, the Cards' right-hander delivered seven shutout innings of seven-hit ball. If you had a chance to read my analysis for that particular matchup, you'll recall that I called for Wainwright to bounce back from a rather shaky outing against Kansas City on 6.27. Also, it should be pointed out that save for that one start against the Royals, Wainwright has been pretty good of late. He's allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts since the start of June. Overall, the team is 10-3 his L13 outings. That includes a 6-4 win against Pittsburgh back on May 7th. Wainwright allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 IP there. I'm still somewhat stunned that St. Louis is just 18-26 at home this year. This is a club that went 55-26 in its home park last season. They're actually basically even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed at home this season (4.4 vs. 4.4 per game). They led yday, 5-1, and did outhit the Pirates, 12-9. When on a three-game losing streak, the Cards are 16-6 the L3 seasons. Today, they'll face Glasnow, who is making his big league debut. The 6'6" prospect impressed in Triple-A, but control has been an issue for him as three times he led his league in walks and at one point he had a 1.50 WHIP! Look for the Cardinals to avoid the four-game sweep at home this afternoon. 8* St. Louis |
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07-06-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -169 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:07 ET): I was on the Blue Jays Monday night as they took the series opener from the Royals, 6-2. I should have followed up w/ them last night (laid off the game) as they won again, this time 8-3. They've now scored 40 runs over the course of a four-game win streak, including Sunday's 17-1 demolition of what has been a very hot Cleveland team. Remember last year, this team did not peak until right after the All-Star Break. Could it be a little deja vu "North of the Border?" Perhaps. But I know it won't be deja vu from LY's ALCS (won in six games by KC) as Toronto is poised to sweep the Royals right out of the Rogers Centre. |
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07-06-16 | Marlins v. Mets -191 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
5* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets came into this series riding high as they swept a four-game series from the Cubs (repeat of LY's NLCS) here at Citi Field last weekend. But in both games here vs. Miami, they've fallen into deep holes. On Monday, they were fortunate enough to climb out as they erased a 6-0 deficit and stormed back to take the game by a score of 8-6. But they weren't so lucky last night, even though they scored first, as they ended up falling 5-2. The difference there was two swings of the bat by Miami's Giancarlo Stanton, who supplied all five runs batted in for his team. But make no mistake about it, today the Mets are heavily favored for a reason. They have Jacob deGrom on the bump and that alone should be enough to carry them to victory here. The Marlins counter deGrom w/ Juan Nicasio, who hasn't had a particularly great first half of the season. That's actually putting things mildly as Nicasio comes in sporting a 5.34 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in his 11 starts. The team has been able to scratch its way to a mediocre 5-6 mark in those games, though Nicasio certainly has made it hard on them. Over his L3 starts, all of which have come on the road, the southpaw has an 8.21 ERA and 2.021 WHIP as he's allowed 14 runs and 29 hits in just 15 1/3 innings of work. Somehow, Miami has still managed to win two of those games. That should be considered "fortunate," as should the fact the team is currently four games above .500. They've been outscored over the course of the season. This three-start stretch for Nicasio doesn't even include a 10-0 loss he took against Pittsburgh. Nicasio has also lost both times he's faced the Mets in his career. As for deGrom, he's 3-1 w/ a 2.80 ERA in seven starts against this division rival. He was due for some run support his last time out and got it in a 10-2 win over the Cubs where he did his job as well, allowing just one run and three hits in 5 IP. That was on the heels of five consecutive quality starts where deGrom's offense scored a grand total of THREE times! Overall, he's allowed 3 ER or less in seven straight starts. Thanks to rain in that start vs. the Cubs, he threw only 85 pitches (52 for strikes), so he should be ready to roll here. 5* NY Mets |
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07-05-16 | Yankees -126 v. White Sox | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): The Yankees took it "on the chin" last night, losing 8-2 on the Southside of Chicago, but I feel the team in pinstripes is poised to bounce back tonight w/ their ace Masahiro Tanaka on the bump. Tanaka has an 11-5 team start record so far in 2016 and a 1.060 WHIP. He's generally saved his best work for the road this season (1.32 ERA/0.902 WHIP in seven starts) and should bounce back from a rough outing against Texas last Wednesday (that the Yanks still won). The money line is telling here as the White Sox are just 2-6 this year as a home dog of +125 or less. While they've won five of six, Chicago's last four-game win streak came all the way back in early May. Road team gets revenge here. |
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07-04-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -179 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays certainly ought to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now after snapping the Indians' 14-game win streak (best in MLB this season) Saturday and then drubbing them on Sunday by a score of 17-1. Yesterday's result actually gives the Jays not only the best run differential in their division, but also the third best in the entire American League (+53). Up next is a series with the team that eliminated them from LY's ALCS, the Royals. While these teams may have comparable won-loss records, the respective run differentials are anything but, as KC has been outscored by 14 runs over the course of this season after taking a 7-2 loss to the Phillies yday. This is the first meeting since LY's ALCS and I think - at home - Toronto is going to be very fired up. |
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07-04-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -189 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -189 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
7* St. Louis (2:15 ET): I rode the Cardinals in every game this past weekend and that move paid off as they wound up sweeping the lowly Brewers at home. Each day, I went through the reasons why I thought it was a good time to "buy low" on the Redbirds. It started with their surprisingly poor home record (still only 18-23), which doesn't seem fair because they've actually outscored opponents at Busch Stadium over the course of the year. They also went 55-26 at home last season, so these "home struggles" are certainly uncharacteristic. Overall, the team now has a +82 overall run differential for the year, which is third best in all of baseball! Thankfully, they've also seemed to "clean things up" in the field as well (they lead MLB in errors). Therefore, I'll continue to ride them Monday as they welcome in the Pirates. |
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07-04-16 | Angels v. Rays -118 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
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07-03-16 | Marlins -142 v. Braves | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
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07-03-16 | Orioles v. Mariners -139 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:05 ET): Here's another team going for the sweep on Sunday. In this instance, I "only" backed the Mariners yday (won 12-6), but the results of this particular series have not surprised me in the least. I say that because I'll continue to question Baltimore until they can demonstrate they are capable of playing better on the road. I've said this many times before, but it bears repeating - the O's schedule so far has been very "home-heavy" (44 of 80 games played at Camden Yards) and their now 16-20 road record should be cause for concern as too should be sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the bump this afternoon. Seattle, who is now only 5.5 games worse than Baltimore in the standings, actually has a better YTD run differential. In yday's analysis, I talked about how the Orioles starting rotation isn't going to scare anyone. That's certainly the case w/ Jimenez. "Ubaldo's had two good outings in a row," said manager Buck Showalter, "so we hope that continues." The problem there, skip, is that Jiminez still has a 6.23 ERA and 1.887 WHIP for the season. On the road, those marks jump to 8.37 and 2.155 respectively. Another issue Showalter is facing is that these starters simply aren't going deep into games. Usually, he's very good at managing the bullpen, but due to the T.J. McFarland injury he simply does not have a lot of left-handed options to turn to before closer Zach Britton. Baltimore is 1-6 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +150 on the money line. The long-ball has largely carried this Orioles offense this season, but you'll note that Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma didn't give up any in his last outing, a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. There, Iwakuma allowed just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. His numbers aren't what you necessarily like to see, but I'll project him to get ample support here as in five of the last seven games, the Mariners have finished with 10 or more hits. Meanwhile, there have already been four starts this season by Jimenez where the opponent ended up scoring at least 10 runs. Seattle hit five home runs yday, is seventh in total runs scored in all of MLB, seventh in slugging and 10th in OBP. Iwakuma threw a no-hitter against Baltimore last season. 8* Seattle |
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07-03-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals -180 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
6* St. Louis (2:15 ET): As I had projected, the Cardinals have begun to turn things around here at Busch Stadium. I've been on them in each of the first two games of this series w/ Milwaukee and they've won both, 7-1 on Friday and 3-0 yday afternoon. I think that over the course of the last two days my analysis has made a pretty clear cut case that the Redbirds should have a better record at this point in the season, particularly here at home. They went 55-26 at home last season, but are still just 17-23 here in 2016 despite having actually outscored opponents. Their YTD run differential of +81 is fourth best in all of baseball, so clearly better things SHOULD be on the horizon. I'll call for them to finish off the sweep here. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is not a very good team. They have a YTD run differential of -66 (5th worst in baseball), scored all of two runs total the L3 games and will be sending out a pitcher who has a 12.71 ERA and 2.295 WHIP his L3 starts. They're also 15-31 vs. St. Louis since the start of the 2014 season. They have yet to win a game this season when they are a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. Overall, their road record is just 13-25. The pitcher in question here is Chase Anderson, who has allowed 17 runs in 11 1/3 innings. He's given up 19 hits and issued seven walks during that time as well. In eight games this season against the Cardinals, the Brew Crew have been outscored 48-14 while getting shutout three times. Another issue for St. Louis this season has been poor defense (lead MLB w/ 64 errors), but they were errorless yday and even turned four double plays. That's certainly a positive sign and I'm sure today's starter Michael Wacha would love to get similar help. Wacha hasn't needed much help in his career against Milwaukee as he's never lost to them. That includes tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball back in April w/ seven strikeouts. As stated earlier, Milwaukee has done very little scoring of late and all season vs. St. Louis for that matter, so this should be an easy one for Wacha. His offense, factoring in the pitcher they are facing, should definitely provide ample support given that they are 4th in all of MLB in runs scored. 6* St. Louis |
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07-02-16 | Orioles v. Mariners -139 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
9* Seattle (10:10 ET): Personally, I have not been surprised at the results of this series so far. Though Baltimore came in as the hot team (7-game win streak), I've been pointing out basically all season that their schedule has been quite friendly to this point ("home heavy") and that their below .500 road record most certainly "matters." Their offense has cooled considerably in the two games here in Seattle, producing only five runs and 13 hits (2 HR's). The Mariners, meanwhile, came into the series in a pretty good "buy low" situation as they were only .500 (had lost 21 of 32) despite still owning a +39 run differential. In fact, their run differential is pretty similar to that of the 47-32 Orioles (+50). I'll look for those respective differentials to grow even closer after tonight as Seattle makes it three straight over their visitors. Another reason I have doubts about Baltimore is the dearth of starting pitching. They simply do not have a lot of depth in the rotation or even one strong arm they can consistently rely on. Chris Tillman has the great team start record (14-3), but his ERA/WHIP aren't indicative of a pitcher that should have that kind of record. Tonight, it will be Tyler Wilson on the bump and he has a 4.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. He's one of two Orioles' starters to be "in the red" when it comes to net units (-0.55) this season, even though no starter has an ERA below 3.71 or a WHIP below 1.25. Wilson allowed five runs and 10 hits his last time out and that was at home against a Rays team that has been struggling badly. I always "tip my cap" to the job skipper Buck Showalter does w/ this bullpen, but right now he's running out of arms, at least lefties, and that cost him last night. Of course, the Mariners don't care to hear about any other team's injury woes as their own starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. Felix Hernandez is obviously the biggest name missing. But we've seen guys step up, including Wade LeBlanc last night. I'd like to see the same here from James Paxton, whose last three starts have admittedly not gone all that well. But I think a real key is that he hasn't allowed a single home run in any of his last four starts. The O's are too dependent on the long ball, in my opinion. 9* Seattle |
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07-02-16 | Yankees v. Padres -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): There aren't a ton of great opportunities to fire on the Padres over the course of a given season, but I feel this is one such time. They beat the Yankees yday, 7-6, and the game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated as the road team scored four runs in the ninth. The Yanks did come to the West Coast off a pair of nice victories over the Rangers, but those took place at home, not the road where they are 16-22 for the year including a lousy 5-11 as a dog in the +100 to +125 price range. There's certainly not much to like about starter Ivan Nova, who checks in w/ a 9.00 ERA and 2.214 WHIP his L3 starts. I'd say to expect the home team to win by a more comfortable margin Saturday night. Every year, it seems as if there's a select number of "hard-luck" pitchers, guys whose individual numbers indicate their team start records should be a lot better. Here in 2016, you can put San Diego's Drew Pomeranz on that list. A 7-8 TSR is grossly unfair considering a 2.76 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. Pomeranz wasn't leaving anything up to chance his last time out, however, as he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball against the hapless Reds. The Yankees are certainly not the most formidable offensive club Pomeranz will have faced this year; before scoring those four runs in the ninth yday, they were on pace to score two runs or less for the fifth time in seven games. Remember that they also lose the DH spot from the order in this series because it's a NL park and traditionally one of the most "pitcher-friendly" at that. Since May 1st, there have only been two times (in 11 starts) where Pomeranz has given up more than 3 ER. Five times he hasn't given up ANY runs and that's while going at least five innings every time and also not allowing more than three hits! The opposition is batting just .190 against him for the year (3rd best average in the N.L.) and his 10.4 K's per nine innings rank sixth. With Pomeranz on the hill, I feel more than comfortable playing the Padres in this price range as they are 4-1 this season when priced at -125 to -150 on the ML at home. Led by Wil Myers, the offense has done its job of late too, averaging 6.1 rpg the last seven contests. 8* San Diego |
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07-02-16 | Pirates v. A's -163 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -163 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Yes, I may have lost with the A's last night, but that doesn't mean I think that they are mispriced in this series. Remember, I'd had my "finger on the pulse" of this team the L2 days w/ a win ON them (Wednesday, 7-1 over Giants) and then AGAINST them (12-6, again vs. the Giants) Thursday. I don't think that Pittsburgh having an off-day really factored into Friday's result as the A's jumped out to an early 3-0 lead after two innings that unfortunately starter Sonny Gray could not hold. Offensively, the Athletics did little after those first two innings as well. But tonight I have the home team bouncing back as the Bucs have been a shaky road team in this price range (0-3 at +150 to +175) and they have a weak starting pitcher going as well. |
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07-02-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals -168 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (2:15 ET): This will be the second straight day St. Louis gets my endorsement. They beat Milwaukee 7-1 in yday's series opener. In my analysis for that game, I went through some of the reasons why the Cardinals were only 40-38 despite having a +72 run differential that ranked 4th best in all of baseball. Obviously, that scoring margin now looks even better. To rehash from yday, the Cards have not fared well in one-run games this year, going 6-14, which is the worst win percentage (.300) in such contests in all of MLB. They also have routinely hurt themselves in the field. For example, Thursday's game vs. the Royals saw them commit three errors, increasing their MLB-leading total to 62, which in turn has led to 28 unearned runs being scored against them. Friday saw them commit two more, but thankfully it did not hurt them as Milwaukee is simply a team they should dominate, especially at home. Let's go with the home team again this afternoon. |
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07-02-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
10* Toronto (1:05 ET): Yes, I'm calling for Cleveland's franchise-record 14-game win streak to come to a halt here. Really, it's the ideal situation. Yesterday's game went 19 innings and saw Trevor Bauer, originally today's scheduled started, get called into duty. Bauer wound up going five innings for the win, but obviously will no longer be available here. As of press time, we do not know who will be starting for the Indians today. Note that whomever it ends up being is irrelevant to this play. Either it will be a minor league call-up or manager Terry Francona will have to piece something together out of the bullpen. I realize that Toronto was involved in the same 19-inning game yday, but they have Marco Estrada to lean on here. |
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07-01-16 | Pirates v. A's -153 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -153 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Third day in a row I'm making a play on/against the Athletics. Wednesday, I took them as they beat San Francisco 7-1. Yesterday, I went against them and they lost 12-6, missing out on a chance to sweep their Bay Area rival. The key difference in handicapping those two games was clearly the presence of Madison Bumgarner on the mound for the Giants last night as he held the Oakland bats in relative check for 6+ innings. Obviously, Bumgarner isn't going to be pitching tonight for the Pirates, so I'm back on the A's tonight in yet another Interleague series. Interesting is the line move here (similar to Wednesday) where it appears as if it's sharp money responsbile for the home team being bet up on the money line. I'll concur w/ the move. Pittsburgh has been one the real disappointments in the National League so far. They currently sit three games below .500 even after winning four of their last six. They had an off-day after winning in Seattle, 8-1, Wednesday. But the rest is not nearly enough to garner my endorsement for tonight. Starter Jeff Locke might be off B2B impressive outings against the Dodgers and Giants (beat Bumgarner 1-0), but he's mostly been a disaster on the road w/ a 7.36 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight starts. The team's record in those eight starts is a predictable 2-6. Those two impressive starts against the Dodgers & Giants (1 ER allowed in 13 2/3 IP) both came at home. His last two road starts (at New York & Colorado) saw him allow 18 runs in just 8 2/3 IP. I'm not entirely sure what the deal has been with Sonny Gray this year, but the Oakland ace has looked better of late. He allowed only 2 ER to both the Brewers and Angels in his last two starts and had a 10-2 KW ratio. He has a 3.23 ERA his L5 starts, but sadly has nothing to show for it. In fact, he's winless going all the way back to April 22nd. So he's due. What would help Gray's cause is some good old fashioned run support. Quietly, the A's offense has scored six or more runs in seven straight games, averaging 7.7 per game during that stretch w/ a team batting average of .300! So the support should be there. 8* Oakland |
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07-01-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals -173 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals let me down last night (my lone loss in MLB) by dropping a third game to the Royals, this time by a score of 4-2. It is absolutely stunning to see this club have a 15-23 record at home (lost seven straight!) as they went 55-26 here in '15. Run differential (+72) still says this is a very good team; in fact that run differential ranks as the 4th best in all of baseball! Fortunately, they'll be welcoming in a much lesser opponent to Busch Stadium this weekend and that's Milwaukee, who is 13-23 on the road and off an 8-1 loss (at home) to the Dodgers yday. This is a series that the Cards HAVE to take advantage of. Remember, they just swept the Cubs (at Wrigley), so I don't think there's any reason to panic. The Brew Crew did put up a pretty good fight in B2B series w/ the Nationals and Dodgers as they split the six home games. But, as noted above, they have struggled outside of Miller Park. They're being outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road this year and went 2-7 out on the West Coast in June (only road trip). I don't think this line will get as high as +200, but if it does, then you can book a St. Louis win as Milwaukee as 0-6 this year as a ML dog of +200 or higher. They are also just 15-29 head to head w/ the Cardinals since the start of the 2014 season. They've lost both series to them this year, both times dropping two of three. The Cardinals four victories have come by a combined 33-4 margin! In only one of the six games has Milwaukee scored more than three runs. Starting tonight for the Redbirds will be Jaime Garcia. He's faced the Brewers twice in 2016 and has allowed just two runs in 14 innings of work. The start that came here at home saw him go the distance w/ a one-hit shutout where he finished w/ a season-high 13 strikeouts. His 10 career wins against Milwaukee are his most versus any opponent. The Brewers counter w/ Matt Garza, who has a 4.07 ERA in 12 career starts vs. St. Louis. Johnny Peralta is 17 for 37 lifetime against him. Really, the Cards have been beating themselves this year as three errors last night ran their YTD total to a major league leading 62 (which have led to 28 unearned runs). Clean up the fielding issues and they should have no problem putting an end to this curious home losing streak of theirs. 8* St. Louis |
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07-01-16 | Cubs v. Mets -101 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets badly needed a win last night and they got it w/ a surprising, come-from-behind 4-3 victory over the Cubs. The spark seemed to be a titanic home run for Yoenis Cespedes in the sixth, though the home team didn't actually take the lead until the following frame. New York came into this series having just been swept by the Nats and finished only 12-15 in the month of June. But, despite those disappointing results, the good news is they always won at least two in a row last month (meaning they never just won once and then lost again). They've also now beaten the Cubs five straight times dating back to LY's NLCS after losing nine straight regular season games to them. I like the Mets tonight. The key for the Cubs yday was that they failed to score four runs. They are an insane 46-4 this year when reaching that plateau, but that obviously means they are also 5-23 otherwise. That's not a great sign, actually. Despite setting a historic pace in run differential (+169 through 78 games), Joe Maddon's team has definitely seemed to slow down over the last week or so, going just 4-7 its last 11 games. Three of those wins, remember, came against the hideous Reds. The club has lost each of the last four starts made by Jason Hammel, scoring only nine runs total in those games. Tonight's starter for the Cubs has never beaten the Mets and his ERA is currently at a season-high. The Cubs will face all quality arms in this series and tonight it's Jacob DeGrom on the hill for the home team. Though deGrom is winless since April, a stretch of 10 starts, his ERA is actually a very respectable 3.13 during that time. So, he's definitely due. Last Saturday, he tossed eight scoreless innings (against Atlanta), but unfortunately did not factor into the decision as the Mets won 1-0 in 11 innings. DeGrom has made six consecutive quality starts and has allowed more than 3 ER in only one of his 13 starts overall this season. If his offense can give him the requisite amount of support here, then I see no reason why deGrom can't break his own personal streak and lead the team to its second straight victory. 10* NY Mets |
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06-30-16 | Giants -157 v. A's | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:05 ET): The sign of a good handicapper is a willingness not to fall into the trap of being intractable. What works one day, week, month or season may not work the next. Playing off that thought, after winning w/ the A's (7-1!) last night, I'm on the Giants Thursday. Sweeping a four-game series is hard to do, so the notion that a bottom-rung team like Oakland could pull off the feat against one of the top teams in all of baseball seems a little far-fetched. Of course, a big reason I like San Francisco in this spot is that they have Madison Bumgarner on the hill. Note that despite this game being contested in an AL park (Oakland), Giants skipper Bruce Bochy is forsaking the DH and will allow Bumgarner (9 HR's in 183 AB's L3 seasons) to bat! Over the course of a given season, most pitchers will have at least a two-start stretch where they go winless. But Bumgarner is not "most" pitchers. It's been a couple of "hard luck" losses for the big ol' lefty, first a 1-0 decision at Pittsburgh, then a 3-2 decision vs. Philadelphia. Prior to those results, the Giants had won 10 straight times when Bumgarner toed the rubber. His numbers remain excellent. Over his L7 starts, he has a 1.45 ERA and 0.825 WHIP. There have been only two starts all season where he's allowed more than 3 ER, the last one coming all the way back on May 6th. Obviously, hitting won't bother him as he's used to having to come up to the plate. In his career, Bumgarner has pretty much dominated the A's, going 8-4 w/ a 1.99 ERA. Last year, he held them to just one run and five hits over 7 IP. The idea that Oakland could actually sweep this series is pretty shocking. They have been one of the AL's worst teams, basically all season and still have a -46 run differential even after the three consecutive victories. The Giants, who came into this series w/ more wins than the Cubs, really helped their Bay Area rival out last night by committing three errors. Still, a 25-15 road record from SF should be respected. Unlike last night, the pitching advantage is quite large here for the G-Men as the A's go w/ Dillon Overton, who in his first career start gave up three home runs. The Giants are 7-1 this year as ML road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. 8* San Francisco |
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06-30-16 | Royals v. Cardinals -155 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals have dropped two of the three games so far in this series, including a 3-2 extra inning loss last night here at home. Sadly, the one game they did win was Tuesday (8-4) in Kansas City when I elected to go against them. But I think they'll be "paying me back" tonight in the series finale w/ a win. Note that while the Royals have the better WL record (41-36 vs. 40-37), the Cards have the vastly superior run differential (+74 vs. -14), which I firmly believe is a better predictor of future success. Therefore, I look for the Redbirds to exact revenge for last night and earn themselves a split of this four-game set. |
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06-30-16 | Twins v. White Sox -161 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
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06-29-16 | Giants v. A's +101 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 101 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10* Oakland (10:05 ET): After 24 runs and 30 hits (between the two teams), the A's emerged as pretty shocking victors last night in San Francisco (closed +130 on the ML). It was a 13-11 final w/ Jake Smolinski's three-run, pinch-hit HR winding up being the difference. (Giants did score two runs of their own in the bottom of the ninth). Oakland scored 12 of its runs in the final four innings, eight of those coming in the eighth and ninth. Twice they overcame a three-run deficit because they actually allowed four runs in the bottom of the sixth after scoring four of their own in top half of that frame. I imagine that "the world" will be on the Giants to bounce back here, but w/ the scene shifting across the bay, I'm on the A's! Oakland didn't just win last night, they won Monday (8-3) as well. Taking both games in San Francisco is a pretty impressive feat considering the Giants came into this series owning a 24-14 home record and were tied for the most wins in all of baseball. But in terms of run differential, this team is actually only fourth in the National League and way behind the Cubs (also trail Washington and St. Louis). They've certainly benefited from a 19-9 record in one-run games (that's the most one-run victories in all of baseball. I have real concerns about the rotation depth here and that includes tonight's starter Jake Peavy, who comes in sporting a 6.25 ERA and 1.333 WHIP on the road. Peavy has been better of late, but I wouldn't necessarily trust him moving forward. I fully understand that Oakland's Sean Manaea isn't exactly in the middle of the Cy Young discussion, but his L3 home starts have all been pretty good. Back on June 13th, he lasted only 4 1/3 innings, but allowed only two runs and four hits and most importantly the team got a big 14-5 win over a Texas team that's been just as hot as this San Francisco one is now. The reason for the short stint is that Manaea strained his forearm and ended up going to the DL. This will be his first start since. A big key here is that "sharp money" has shown up on the home team here, leading to a big line move despite the majority of actual bets being on the road team. 10* Oakland |
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06-29-16 | Rangers v. Yankees -177 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): These two teams certainly appear to be trending in opposite directions as the Rangers have come to Yankee Stadium and taken the first two games by scores of 9-6 and 7-1. But the home team still has a chance to earn a split here and is a big favorite tonight even though Texas has won 20 of its last 25 games and has the best record in the American League. This is because Masahiro Tananka will be on the bump for the team wearing pinstripes and he's been quite good of late w/ six of his last seven starts being of the quality variety. Note that last night was only a 2-0 game heading into the eighth inning and Monday saw the Rangers rally late after a lengthy rain delay. After letting one get away and then ending up losing in such lopsided fashion, I anticipate the home team will be quite motivated here tonight. |
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06-29-16 | Mets v. Nationals -192 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these NL East powerhouses (no pun intended) came into this series somewhat reeling. The Nats won Sunday (I had 'em!), but had lost seven in a row prior to that and are currently w/o the services of one Stephen Strasburg (back). The Mets, meanwhile, simply can't score. They are one of only three teams yet to score 300 runs this season and the other two are the bottom-feeders in their own division, Philadelphia and Atlanta. An abundance of quality arms in the starting rotation has kept this team afloat, but tonight sees them most certainly not having the starting pitching edge. I look for Washington to make it three in a row over their main rival tonight. The Mets' offensive woes continued last night as they were shutout by Nats' prospect Lucas Giolito. But it wasn't all Giolito as an 85-minute rain delay cut his outing short. Still, the Mets finished the game w/ only five hits. It was the ninth time they've been shutout this year and the 10th time in the last 11 games they've finished with four runs or fewer. Assuming this lack of offensive production continues (and I believe it will here), that obviously makes life quite difficult for starter Logan Verrett, who has enough problems of his own right now. Verrett is only back in the rotation due to an injury to Steven Matz. In a spot start earlier this month, he gave up three home runs and issued four walks in just four innings of work. That was after allowing seven runs in just 2 2/3 IP last month in Colorado. Max Scherzer is looking to bounce back after allowing five runs in Milwaukee last Friday. But, make no mistake about it, he's a big reason why I love this play. A 0.997 WHIP for the year indicates that he is deserving of far better than just a 9-7 team start record and his strikeout numbers remain pretty ridiculous as he's sat down 92 batters in his L9 starts (64 1/3 IP). Earlier this year, Scherzer suffered a hard luck 2-0 loss to the Mets as both runs allowed were solo home runs. He struck out 10 only to be outdueled by Noah Syndergaard. Something tells me he'll have little difficulty outdueling Verrett here as the Nats complete the sweep. 8* Washington |
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06-28-16 | Blue Jays -139 v. Rockies | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:40 ET): The Blue Jays let me down yday (blew 4-0 lead) but alas I think they'll "get it back" today as I don't see Colorado being capable of producing another six-run inning like the one we saw last night, even here at the hitter-friendly confines of their home park. Though Colorado is now "in the black" when it comes to YTD run differential (+3), which has to be considered a bit of a surprise, Toronto is clearly the better team here (+31 run differential) and I expect them to show that tonight. The Jays have a winning road record and are 10-5 this year when JA Happ is on the mound. |
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06-28-16 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -188 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
5* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamonbacks were completely embarrassed last night as they lost 8-0 to the Phillies. However, I happen to be of the belief that when a home team suffers a loss like that, they typically are a great "buy low" candidate the following day. If you've been following along this season, then you already know that I have very little regard for the Phillies, who have the fourth worst run differential in all of baseball even after Monday's eight-run victory. They're lucky to even be 33-45 as nearly half (16) of those wins have come by exactly one run. Take one-run games out of the equation and the Phillies drop to 17-36. Oh by the way, Zack Greinke is pitching tonight for the D'backs. While he struggled initially to adjust to Chase Field, those struggles now seem to be a thing of the past. The team has won eight straight times when he's on the mound and he was one out shy of making it five consecutive quality starts the last time we saw him as he allowed only 3 ER in 5 2/3 IP as Arizona beat Colorado 7-6 on June 23rd. In the midst of producing the 8-0 team start record, Grienke has posted a 2.18 ERA while holding opponents to a .191 batting average and .224 on base percentage. He dominated Philadelphia back on June 18th, giving up only one run on three hits over eight innings. I envision we'll be seeing a similar performance tonight. Though I didn't have a play on last night's game, the result certainly caught me by surprise. Note Arizona had swept Philly (in a 4-game set) on the road last week, outscoring them 22-5. They were also coming off a series in Colorado where they produced a franchise-record for hits in a four-game set (56). So, it wasn't just the fact they lost, but that they were shut out as well. But the real surprise has been the D'backs' somewhat pathetic 13-26 home record this season. That has to start changing soon, right? Fortunately, the Phillies are 9-19 the L3 seasons when off a shutout win. While they finished w/ a season-high in hits last night (16), all but three of those came in the final four innings. Needless to say, with all the money invested in this roster, the D'backs did not expect to be staring up at the Rockies in the NL West standings at this point in the season. 5* Arizona |
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06-28-16 | Cardinals v. Royals -117 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
9* Kansas City (8:15 ET): I still can't believe that I was able to pull out a winner w/ last night's Under play. Certainly, I felt confident going in, but after the game was 6-2 after just two innings (O/U line was 8.5), things weren't looking very good. But from that point forward, the scoring was done and I was left w/ a somewhat improbable winning ticket. As for the respective sides, KC has to be feeling pretty good about itself after taking the opener of the I-70 series, but then again they've been "feeling good" all season long at Kauffman Stadium where they're now an impressive 27-10 (best home win percentage in all of baseball). As for the Cardinals, well, this has the look of "one of those seasons" as despite ranking 4th in MLB in run differential (+71), they're only three games above .500. I'm on the home team tonight. |
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06-27-16 | Blue Jays -138 v. Rockies | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -138 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:40 ET): The Blue Jays invade Coors Field for a three-game set starting Monday and given what we've seen from the offense for much of June, this should be a big series at the plate for them. Saturday marked the sixth time since June 11th that they scored 10 or more runs in a game. Yes, I know that they were held to just two runs in the other two games (both losses) against the White Sox this past weekend, but yday they had to face Chris Sale. The Rockies don't have a starting pitcher even close to that same caliber in their rotation; in fact opposing teams have averaged a whopping 6.8 rpg here at Coors Field this season while batting .312! I look for a big offensive night from Toronto here en route to an easy victory. The Jays also have a clear edge in starting pitching here as Marco Estrada will take the mound for them. He has a 2.75 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in his 14 starts, so you can largely disregard the 8-6 team start record, which is somewhat misleading. His last time out, Estrada gave up only two hits (in 6 IP), but three runs as the team ended up falling 4-2 to Arizona. But that was the team's first time losing w/ Estrada pitching since May 14th. It's been seven consecutive quality starts for him. Toronto has a winning record on the road this season, including 9-3 as a ML favorite of -125 to -150 (25-14 in that range the L3 seasons). The team still has a +35 run differential as well and I feel is poised for a big second half provided the offense continues to move closer to 2015-levels. Colorado has had no issues scoring of late as they're averaging 8.5 runs their last six games, scoring at least six times in every contest. But they've only managed a 3-3 split due to their terrible pitching, which just gave up 30 runs in four games to Arizona. Starting tonight will be Jon Gray, who has a 5.34 ERA here in Coors Field. Gray lasted only four innings his last time out, the result of which was a 9-8 loss to the Yankees, and managed to walk five batters. If Gray is expecting any help from his bullpen on Monday, then he better think again as this group has a woeful 6.19 ERA at home this season. 8* Toronto |
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06-27-16 | Dodgers v. Pirates +106 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): It had been a positively miserable June for the Pirates coming into this series (5-17 overall!), but all of a sudden they find themselves in a position to sweep a Dodgers club that came into PNC Park riding a six-game win streak. Most surprising of all is that the Bucs beat Clayton Kershaw Sunday night as massive +230 underdogs on the money line. It's a very quick turnaround to the finale of this four-game set, a wrap-around that concludes Monday. I'm backing the Bucs here as they seem to not only have the "momentum" (I hate that word!), but the confidence after slaying Kershaw. It's been a bad month for Pittsburgh to be sure, but I think that it should be pointed out how the team still ranks third in on base percentage (.338). They've drawn eight walks in the three games so far in the series plus they have 26 hits. That's four more baserunners than the Dodgers have had in the three games. Given the OBP, it's a little strange to see the Pirates rank only 15th in MLB in runs scored. Something tells me the offense is coming. After leadoff man Jordy Mercer had to exit early Sunday night (took knee to the side of the head), it sure was nice to see Adam Frazier come in and give the team a lift w/ two hits in three chances. It should be noted that LA starter Scott Kazmir has a 5.18 ERA on the road this season and a 1.60 WHIP his L3 starts overall. If the Bucs can get to Kershaw, they can also get to Kazmir. Francisco Liriano is in the midst of a 'down year,' but the Pirates' starter does have good career numbers vs. the Dodgers w/ a 2.73 ERA in five starts. He's unbeaten (4-0) as well. It's really surprising to see how the team has lost five straight times when he's taken the mound, but note the offense scored two runs or less in four of those games. Outside of a pair of 12-run outbursts vs. Arizona, Liriano simply hasn't gotten much run support this year. But I expect him to today and it should be pointed out that the Pirates still sport a winning record at home while the Dodgers are a losing proposition on the road. The Pittsburgh lineup is batting .281 this year in day games. The Dodgers average only 3.1 rpg vs. LH starters w/ a .218 BA. 9* Pittsburgh |
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06-26-16 | A's -110 v. Angels | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10* Oakland (3:35 ET): Compared to the National League, a far more wide open race was expected in the AL this season and as we've almost reached July, very few teams are "out of it" in the Junior Circuit. One could make the arguement that these two are among the small "out of it group" as they are both among the four AL teams currently 10 games below .500 or worse. Right now though, the Angels (who I personally was very low on prior to the start of the season) seem to be in far worse shape as they've now lost six in a row after falling again to the A's yday, 7-3. Today sees Oakland going for the rare, four-game sweep on the road and I think they'll pull it off. Sonny Gray has typically been the anchor in the Athletics' rotation for the last several seasons, but 2016 has been a bit of a different story as he has a 5.20 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 13 starts. He's personally on a career-worst five game losing streak which dates back to the end of April. But the team did win the last time Gray pitched, 5-3 over Milwaukee on Tuesday, with the right-hander delivering six strong innings. He allowed only two runs, one of which was unearned, and matched a season-high w/ seven strikeouts. Angel Stadium has been a place where he's loved to pitch in the past (1.52 ERA L4 starts here), so I can see him finally earning that elusive 'W' today. It's not like the Halos have much of a homefield advantage this season; they're only 15-23 in their own park. Speaking of struggling at home, Angels' starter Hector Santiago has a 6.55 ERA in seven starts here this season. He's looked better in his L2 starts, but a 4-0 TSR to start the season now seems like "forever ago." Since then, the team is just 5-6 w/ him on the bump. Santiago allowed four runs in 7+ innings when he faced Oakland earlier in the year. 10* Oakland |
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06-26-16 | Nationals -132 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
8* Washington (2:10 ET): I've been positively stunned over the results that have taken place this weekend at Miller Park where the lowly Brewers have been able to post B2B victories at the Nationals' expense. That leaves the Nats on a seven-game losing skid, but in terms of run differential (+69) they remain one of the elite teams in the game by ranking 5th in that department, ahead of both the Rangers and Giants, who are each playing above .630 ball for the year. I fully anticipate Washington avoiding the sweep on Sunday even though Stephen Strasburg again had to be scratched. Milwaukee's current win streak (four games) matches a season best and the previous 4-game win streak had come at the expense of Atlanta & Cincinnati. The Nats are in danger of being swept in a second straight series. The week got off to an ominous start w/ Strasburg being scratched Monday in what was supposed to be a showdown vs. Clayton Kershaw. But the bigger problem for the team right now has been a lack of runs scored as they're averaging just 3.1 per game during the seven-game slide. Interestingly, even w/ Bryce Harper mired in a terrible slump, they have managed to outhit their opponents over the course of those L7 games. In their lineup is the top hitter in the game this year, Daniel Murphy, who collected three more yday. As far as Roark replacing Strasburg goes, note that before Tuesday, the former hadn't lost a decision in almost a month. Roark still turned in a quality outing this past Tuesday at Dodger Stadium, allowing only three runs in 7 1/3 IP. He'd 4-1 w/ a 3.19 ERA over his six starts previous to that one and in 8 of 15 starts overall he's allowed 2 ER or fewer. Five times he hasn't even allowed a single run! I like Roark a lot better than the Brew Crew's Jimmy Nelson, who still has a 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts even after allowing just one run and six hits at Oakland on Tuesday. Milwaukee still lost that game mind you, 5-3, dropping Nelson's team start record to 0-4 in June. He'd allowed a total of 14 runs in the first three while lasting only 13 innings. The Brewers haven't swept the Nats since 2011 and I keep coming back to the rather sizable chasm that exists in the National League this year between contenders and non-contenders. When the two groups are matched up, I'm almost always going to side with the former. 8* Washington |
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06-25-16 | Cubs -171 v. Marlins | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -171 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
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06-25-16 | Tampa Bay Rays - Game #1 v. Baltimore Orioles - Game #1 -143 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* Baltimore, Game 1 (7:05 ET): I have to say that with an early 3-0 lead and getting +1.5 runs, I was feeling pretty confident Friday night w/ the Rays. They carried that lead into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Orioles finally put one on the board (didn't put a runner on base until that frame). The sixth inning is when things came apart though. There, Baltimore scored four times to take the lead for good. The final result obviously keeps the O's in first place in the American League East (42-30) and leaves the Rays 10.5 games back and a season-worst nine games below the proverbial Mendoza line. The teams will play a doubleheader Saturday and w/ TB now having lost eight straight, I've learned my lesson. The quick turnaround does the road team no favors here. Manny Machado returned to the Baltimore lineup on Friday (had to serve four-game suspension for charging the mound) and paid immediate dividends w/ a home run in the eighth inning that put the game out of reach. You'll recall that Machado is batting .317 for the year and now has 18 home runs and 43 RBI's. The Orioles had already homered a total of 42 times in their last 20 games before last night, so w/ the two more longballs, Rays pitching definitely looks to be in trouble moving forward. Up in Game 1 will be Matt Andriese, who has been putting a fair share of runners on base his last three starts. That's why his WHIP is 1.558 as last time out he walked four batters. The Orioles counter w/ Kevin Gausman, whose 2016 returns admittedly haven't been too encouraging. He's personally winless in 12 starts (4-8 TSR) w/ a 4.37 ERA and 1.353 WHIP. He's struggled in B2B starts, but this is an opponent he should handle. Aside from the first inning, the Rays didn't score last night and they came into the game averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 the L7 days. Baltimore has really cleaned up at Camden Yards this season w/ a 28-13 home record. Their own offense is batting above .325 the last week. 8* Baltimore, Game 1 |
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06-25-16 | Twins v. Yankees -180 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (1:10 ET): The team in pinstripes has generally been taking care of business during what you certainly could call a favorable stretch of games. It started last weekend in Minnesota when they took three of four from the Twins. They managed only a split w/ Colorado at home mid-week, but then were able to beat Minny yet again yday, 5-3, in the series opener here at Yankee Stadium. This is shaping up to be another good weekend for the Yanks, who are now back at .500 for the season. The Twins are a dreadful 23-50 this season. Not only is that the worst record in baseball, they have the worst run differential (-117) as well. They are only 8-25 on the road and just 2-9 vs. NY since the start of last season. I'd say it's fairly easy decision as to who to go with here. Minnesota arguably "beat itself" yday, committing three errors in the loss. That's something that a team this bad simply cannot afford to do. More bad news is that the Twins are just 4-17 vs. the AL East this season as well as 10-20 in day games. There are hardly any positives to report w/ Paul Molitor's club right now and that includes today's starter Ervin Santana, who carries a 2-11 team start record into today's ballgame. The only pitcher in baseball that has more "L's" in the column when it comes to TSR is James Shields at 3-12. Santana has a 1.602 WHIP on the road this year and had allowed 5 ER in three consecutive outings before actually beating the Yankees his last time out. I highly doubt the Yankees will lose to him twice in a row. There were two really positive takeaways for the Yankes coming out of Friday night's game. One was the return of Mark Teixeira to the lineup. First base has been somewhat of a "black hole" for the club and Teixeira should somewhat solidify the position, but in the field and at the plate. Two was the performance of Aroldis Chapman, who hit 100 mph on the radar gun ELEVEN straight times yday! The Yanks' shiny bullpen trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Chapman is really coming together as the team is now 11-0 this season when they all appear in the same game. They've combined to retire 18 straight batters the L2 games, including a perfect 9 for 9 last night. Starting in front of them today will be Michael Pineda, who has a 1.091 WHIP his L3 starts. His job is simple - get this one to the bullpen. The Yankees are 14-3 the L3 seasons as a ML home favorite of -175 to -200, including a perfect 3-0 in 2016. 8* NY Yankees |
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06-24-16 | Cardinals -131 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (10:10 ET): Suffice to say, one could make the argument that these have been the "unluckiest" teams in their respective leagues so far this season. Both sport run differentials that are among the top eight in the sport. St. Louis has outscored its opponents by 72 runs over the course of the year (tied for 3rd best), yet is only five games over .500 and that's after sweeping the Cubs in Wrigley earlier this week. Meanwhile, Seattle is actually now a game below .500, despite a +46 run differential. They've dropped six in a row, half of those by a one-run margin. In this series opener, I'm siding with the Redbirds as they had they day off yday and the Mariners are being forced to turn to Wade LeBlanc on the mound. |
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06-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -130 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): I've had a pretty good pulse on this Arizona team the L2 days, first going against them on Wednesday (they lost 4-2 to Toronto) and then backing them yday here in Denver (they won 7-6). So, I feel pretty comfortable in the decision to fade them again here as they were a) a little lucky to hold on last night and b) no longer have Zack Greinke to turn to in the series. After falling behind 3-0 yday, the D'backs came back to take a 6-3 lead, only to allow the Rockies to tie the game back up in the bottom of the eighth. The road team won on a Nick Ahmed RBI single in the top of the ninth, but I don't see them being in a similar position tonight. Back the home team. As I said in yday's analysis, Arizona has been shockingly good on the road thus far. They're now 22-15 away from Chase Field, but just because I took them last night doesn't mean I believe they'll be able to continue the pace. Greinke was a big reason for the 'play on' yday, but tonight sees them having to start Archie Bradley, who had given up four or more runs in 8 of 10 starts prior to his last time out where he was fortunate enough to face the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB (Philadelphia). Bradley has a 6.14 ERA in two career starts vs. Colorado. He allowed four runs in 6 IP earlier this year here at Coors Field, but got bailed out by his offense in what ended up being a 10-5 D'backs win. This will be the third start of 2016 for Colorado's Tyler Anderson and he looked good in the first two. In 12 IP, he's allowed only three runs and 10 hits while his KW ratio is 10-1. He has yet to allow a home run. He's gotten next to no run support so far, which is why he's still winless, but considering the Rockies have scored a total of 22 runs the L3 games, that should change here. Even after yday's result, the Rocks still have a better YTD run differential than the D'backs, so this price range is totally justifiable. 8* Colorado |
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06-24-16 | Mets -176 v. Braves | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:35 ET): All of a sudden, the Mets can't seen to beat the Braves. This is the fourth series of the season between these two National League East rivals. The first two saw New York take five of the six games, which shouldn't be too surprising. But they've since lost four straight times to Atlanta, including 4-3 yday. How embarrassing. Given what we know about both clubs, this shouldn't be happening. While 5-5 against the Mets this year, the Braves are 20-42 against everybody else. That includes a 10-27 home record. In a top-heavy National League, the Mets cannot afford to be losing games to such a sorry opponent. They were swept last weekend (at home!), but that will not be the case here at Turner Field. I'm calling for the Mets to get back on track tonight. It's pretty obvious that the problem with the Mets right now is that they simply don't score enough runs. They scored 17 times in a pair of victories over Pittsburgh last week, but other than that they haven't topped four runs in any of their last 12 games played. Last night was a particularly brutal loss as they led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but then gave up a game-winning two-run home run. Fortunately, tonight they'll be going up against Aaron Blair. Opponents are batting .298 against this Braves' rookie and he has a 2-8 TSR in his 10 starts w/ a 7.19 ERA and 1.705. Blair has yet to go longer than six innings in any start and has yet to record a victory. If the Mets can't beat him, then they're in real trouble. Right now, New York is dealing w/ a lot of injuries, which is a big part of the problem. The starting rotation has certainly not been immune, but tonight skipper Terry Collins has the luxury of sending Steven Matz to the bump. Matz is actually off a hard luck result (where he opposed Blair) his last time out as he gave up only two runs and four hits in 6 IP, yet the Mets still came out on the losing end, 4-3. I expect Matz to step up in this "immediate revenge" spot though as he has a 1.80 ERA in four career starts vs. the Braves. As for Blair, his ERA after facing the Mets twice is 4.76. By the way, Atlanta has not won a game all season in which it has been a ML home dog of +150 to +175 (0-4). 8* NY Mets |
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks -149 v. Rockies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:40 ET): So, I went against the D'backs yday, but will back them here today. Why the change? Well, first off, it's a big-time drop in class of opponent (Toronto to Colorado). Secondly, and obviously this was the major one, Zack Greinke will be toeing the rubber for them today. While Greinke initially had troubles adjusting to his new home park (Chase Field), there have been no such issues on the road this year as he is 5-0 in six starts away from home (6-0 TSR) w/ a 1.47 ERA and 0.837 WHIP. Yes, this is hitter-friendly Coors Field he'll be pitching in tonight, but any damage he might suffer should be mitigated by the fact that counterpart Eddie Butler has a 10.29 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three starts here himself. In yday's analysis, I brought up Arizona's unusual home vs. road dichotomy this season. The team is 13-25 at Chase Field, but 21-15 everywhere else. Their entire five-game win streak, which was snapped yday, came on the road. Even after the loss Wednesday, they've managed to hold opponents to 2.1 rpg and a .184 batting average over the last week. Greinke should keep the string of strong pitching efforts going. He's on a seven-start win streak and is 8-1 w/ a 2.39 ERA his L9 starts. In his four June starts, Greinke has a 0.85 ERA and has allowed all of three runs in 31 IP. The Rockies return home having dropped five of six (all on the road). They've also lost the last three starts made by Butler, who has not helped himself by posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.733 WHIP during that time. His last start here at Coors Field saw him allow eight runs in just four innings and that was against the lowly Reds. Don't let this price range scare you either; Arizona is a perfect 5-0 this year as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150. 8* Arizona |
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06-23-16 | Cubs -155 v. Marlins | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): For the first time all season, the Cubs were on the wrong end of a sweep. They came out on the losing end of all three home games vs. St. Louis, matching their longest losing skid of the entire season. Note that when they lost three in a row the first time this season, it was two losses to the Giants and one to the Cards. The Cubs followed that up by winning their next six games. I believe it's once again an opportune time to back the best team in baseball as they visit an overachieving Miami club that hasn't exactly been doing a ton of scoring lately. The Cubs have a big-time edge in starting pitching here as well. With numerous players on the disabled list currently, this is the first time all year that Chicago is facing some real adversity. But let's put things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Cubs' YTD run differential of +164 is more than DOUBLE that of the second best team (Red Sox at +77). They're outscoring opponents by 2.4 rpg and have actually been BETTER than that average on the road (2.9 rpg). This season has seen them go 7-2 w/ as a ML road favorite in the -150 to -175 price range. As for Miami, well, the Fish have improved their own YTD run differential recently (now dead even in runs scored/allowed), but the fact they are four games above .500 tells me that they've slightly overachieved. I like that Jon Lester is getting the baseball for the Cubbies. He has a 1.69 ERA on the road this year and over his L3 starts overall, his ERA is 1.29 and his WHIP is 0.905. The Cubs have won all three games and are 11-3 overall w/ Lester on the bump this season. In fact, the team has won each of the last five times he's started. All five starts were quality ones and Lester allowed all of seven runs (five earned) during that time, while going 36+ innings. Lester is a much better option here than Wei-Yin Chen is for Miami as the latter has a 9.88 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in his L3 outings. That's obviously pretty terrible. Somehow the team has still managed to win two of those games, including the last one where Chen allowed six runs in just 2 1/3 innings. That won't fly here, however, as the Cubs are 43-3 this year when they score 4+ runs. Miami is actually being outscored by 0.6 rpg here at home. 8* Chi Cubs |
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06-22-16 | Phillies v. Twins -170 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It's pretty rare to see the Twins favored on the money line. Last year, it happened only 35 times (in 162 games!). Because the club overachieved so much, they were able to turn a +20.2 unit profit at the betting window. This year has been a very different story. They are dead last in the league - by a pretty substantial margin - at the pay window (-22.8 units), not to mention have the worst record (22-48) and run differential (-112) in all of baseball as well. But as Tuesday showed, this matchup w/ the similarly bad Phillies is pretty ideal for them and I see Minnesota coming through again here for what would be their third consecutive victory. At one point, you could have made the arguement that the Phillies were the biggest surprise in all of MLB. On May 19th, they stood at 24-17. But their poor run differential was a clear warning sign that a long losing streak was forthcoming and that's precisely what we've seen unfold. Since May 19th, the team has lost 25 of its last 31 games. That includes eight straight losses, which leaves them w/ a -107 run differential, worst in the National League. They are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball (231 runs), so Tuesday had to be particularly deflating as they scored 10 runs (matched a season-high), yet still lost. In fact, they 14 runs they allowed were also a season-high and the fourth time in the last eight game they allowed at least 10. It's an admittedly ugly pitching matchup here on Wednesday. The Phillies' Adam Morgan has a 2-8 team start record w/ a 6.49 ERA. Last time out, he allowed seven runs and didn't even make it out of the fifth inning. He gave up three home runs as well as the team lost 10-2 to Arizona. Overall, it marked the seventh consecutive time that the Phils lost w/ Morgan on the mound. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson hardly inspires much confidence w/ his winless record (1-5 TSR) and 9.00 ERA his L3 starts. But at least he allowed only 3 ER his last time out in what I think qualifies as his second best start of the year. He's been a lot better at Target Field where he's allowed 3 ER or less in three of four starts. 8* Minnesota |
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06-22-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays -165 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
8* Toronto (4:05 ET): I was really surprised to see the Blue Jays fall, at home, to the D'backs on Tuesday. Not only does the American League traditionally dominate Interleague Play, but Toronto had a bit of a "built-in" advantage in that Arizona had to play the previous day in Philadelphia. However, I should point to the fact that the D'backs scored four runs on just three hits while Toronto wasted a perfectly good start from Marco Estrada, who is now the ONLY pitcher since 1900 to allow five or fewer hits in 11 consecutive starts while going at least six innings every time out. I fully anticipate the home team rebounding tonight, as they should again have the edge in starting pitching and hopefully won't leave seven runners on base like they did yday. This afternoon, it will be J.A. Happ toeing the rubber for the home team. Estrada held this D'backs lineup in check last night and so too can Happ here. Don't be fooled by Happ's somewhat pedestrian ERA; his WHIP (1.149) is pretty good and has actually improved over the course of his L3 starts. His last time out, Happ allowed only one run (and it was unearned) on three hits over the course of seven innings. The team has won four of his last five starts overall and five of six this year here at home. There have been seven different times this season, exactly half of Happ's starts, where he's allowed 1 ER or less. As far as being this large a favorite on the ML, that should be just fine considering the team is 16-4 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -175 to -200. As a -190 ML favorite earlier this year, Happ led the team to a 12-2 win over the Rangers. Arizona has now won five straight, all on the road. It's been such an odd season for them as they're 21-14 on the road and just 13-25 at home. But four of these wins during the current streak came at lowly Philadelphia. That series is a big reason why they've allowed just seven runs these L5 games. But Toronto came into Tuesday averaging 7.4 rpg over the last week. The D'backs' starter Wednesday, Robbie Ray, has a WHIP of 1.573 for the year. YTD run differential confirms that the Blue Jays are clearly the superior team here and remember they did out hit the D'backs 8-3 yday. Wednesday has simply not been Arizona's day this season as they are just 1-10, plus they are 50-71 in day games the L3 seasons. 8* Toronto |
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06-22-16 | Royals v. Mets -183 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Quite frankly, I was tempted to give out the Mets yday (as a premium release) w/ Noah Syndergaard on the hill (they were a free play). But he ended up being scratched. Fortunately for the Mets, they still won (2-1) and now they have the luxury of being able to send Syndergaard to the bump w/ an extra days rest. I'm not going to pass on this opportunity a second time. The Mets still have some work to do after an embarrassing weekend (were swept here at home by Atlanta!) and I think they sweep this brief two-game set. The Royals came into this series having won eight of nine, all against division rivals. But in five of those last eight victories, they got away w/ scoring four runs or less. They weren't so lucky Tuesday, obviously. Let us remember that this is a National League park they're playing in here, which means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Something else to consider is Kansas City's somewhat frightening home vs. road dichotomy. While they've cleaned up at Kauffman Stadium so far this year (25-8), they're now just 13-24 away from home, getting outscored by over 1.0 rpg. Simply put, I'm not ready to buy into the World Series champs just yet. Despite being six games over .500, they have been outscored over the course of this season. Thus, I label them as a clear overachiever. Syndergaard has been the Mets' best pitcher this season. whether you're talking wins & losses (9-4 TSR), ERA (1.93), WHIP (0.98) or K's per nine innings (11.14). The team has won six of his last seven starts, including the last three. The performance he delivered his last time out was nothing short of masterful as he struck out 11 Pirates en route to a 11-2 victory. He lasted 8 1/3 innings and gave up only one earned run and five hits. He also didn't walk anybody. Note that his replacement for Tuesday, Bartolo Colon, wound up being lost after the first batter due to injury. That speaks to the Royals' current offensive struggles. Syndergaard leads his team to victory this afternoon. 6* NY Mets |
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06-21-16 | Reds v. Rangers -175 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
6* Texas (8:10 ET): Perhaps, situationally, this is not a great spot for the first place Rangers as they had to play a make-up game yday. But they did win that game, 4-3 over Baltimore, and now get to stay at home to face the lowly Reds. Given the quality of opponent here, I have no problem backing the AL West leaders. Cincinnati has the worst run differential in the entire National League currently (-107) and is coming off a 6-0 loss on Sunday at Houston. Not only did that defeat drop them to 3-10 in Interleague Play this season, but it puts them in a spot they've yet to win in during 2016. That would be off a shutout loss, a situation that has seen them go 0-4 this season. Texas is really hot right now (and I'm not talking about the weather!), having won seven in a row. They are an easy call on Tuesday. Rangers starter Colby Lewis has been on fire lately. The right-hander has led the team to victory in each of his last seven outings and in the last three he's posted fantastic numbers (1.96 ERA, 0.696 WHIP). He went the distance his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits against Oakland. He didn't allow any hits until the final inning. Before that, he went eight innings and again allowed only one run, this time giving up just three hits. So that's all of two runs and five hits he's allowed in his L17 innings of work. Cincinnati comes in batting just .219 over its last seven games and is just 28th in MLB (for the year) in OBP at .296. Lewis, by the way, is still unbeaten at 6-0 in 14 starts (10-4 TSR). Texas has won 10 consecutive series. If they win the next two games and sweep Cincy, that would make it 11, something no American League team has done since the '02 A's team that was chronicled in Moneyball. This Reds team is just 10-24 on the road this year, including 1-9 as an underdog of +175 to +200. They're just 5-18 in that same price range the L3 seasons. On the runs allowed side of the ledger, no team in all of baseball has given up more this season than the Reds (408). Consider that the Cubs have allowed only 196! On the road, they allow 6.4 rpg and Tuesday starter Anthony Desclafani has allowed 14 hits in 8 2/3 IP so far this season. The Reds' bullpen is a complete disaster w/ a 6.04 ERA and 1.660 WHIP. One could "poke holes" in the Rangers' resume, noting the number of one-run wins they've enjoyed, but the opponent here is one they should dominate. 6* Texas |
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06-20-16 | Giants -180 v. Pirates | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
6* San Francisco (7:05 ET): We have two teams trending in very opposite directions here. Pittsburgh is in a really bad way right now as they've dropped 10 of their last 11 overall, who have been "doubled up" in the last seven (outscored by 3.4 rpg). This is a bad spot to boot, as they come off a Sunday night game, on the road, where they lost to the Cubs 10-5. That was the sixth times during this dreadful 1-10 stretch that they lost a game by 5+ runs. They might get to return home Monday, but only to receive a visit from red-hot San Francisco, winners of eight straight and fresh off a sweep of Tampa Bay. Oh by the way, the Giants will be starting ace Madison Bumgarner. They've won his last 10 starts. There's only one choice here. If all of the above wasn't bad enough for the Bucs, they'll have to settle for sending the struggling Jeff Locke to the bump. Over his L3 starts, Locke's ERA and WHIP are both atrocious; they're 12.06 and 1.978 respectively. Last time out, he was shelled for seven runs in just four innings against the light-hitting Mets. That was after giving up 11 runs in 4 2/3 innings at Colorado. Locke has faced off w/ Bumgarner once before and needless to say it didn't go very well. Last August, Locke allowed six runs and 11 hits in just five innings and his team ultimately lost 6-4. While Locke has typically pitched much better at home this year; I'm not sure PNC Park will be enough for the he and the Pirates, who have a 4-14 record in the month of June. The Giants are also 15-9 vs. LH starters this year. The Giants love being big ML favorites on the road. This season alone, they are 3-0 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher. They're 8-0 in that price range the L3 seasons. Obviously, most of those games have come w/ Bumgarner on the hill. As stated above, the southpaw ace hasn't done much losing at all lately w/ a 10-0 TSR his L10 starts, turning in a 1.27 ERA. He has a 0.738 WHIP his last three outings as he's allowed a total of just 12 hits in 20+ innings of work. Going back to May 11th, the team has won 27 of 35 games and they have been positively dominant in the last seven, outscoring opponents by nearly four runs per game with a batting average that's basically .100 points higher. 6* San Francisco |
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06-19-16 | Pirates v. Cubs -158 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The best team in baseball, without a doubt, finds itself going for a sweep tonight at Pittsburgh's expense. While the Cubs and their amazing +166 run differential (double that of the 2nd best team) remain the story in MLB this season, the decline of the Pirates is something that simply must be touched on here. A team that has made the playoffs each of the L3 years (as a Wild Card) now finds itself below .500 w/ a negative run differential after dropping 9 of its last 10. They've been outscored by more than three full runs per game the last seven and Wrigley Field simply seems like the last place they'd turn things around. They are just 1-7 head to head w/ the Cubs in 2016. Incredibly, all five Cubs' starters have WHIPs of 1.07 or lower and none have an ERA higher than 3.00. The one who has - clearly - been the unluckiest though is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks. Seven of the team's 20 losses this year have come w/ Hendricks on the bump. Simply put, he is deserving of a far better record. Here at home, his ERA and WHIP are 1.77 and 0.738 respectively and the TSR is 4-2. So that's good. He's off what I'd call his weakest outing in two months, starting opposite Max Scherzer in Washington, but even then Hendricks allowed only four runs (three earned) and six hits in 5 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-high) burned him. But I see him bouncing back and earning a much deserved win tonight. James Tallion's stock is sky-high right now after he held the Mets scoreless and to two hits over eight innings his last time out. But keep in mind that the Mets are the only opponent he's seen so far this season (started against them twice). The Cubs are a far different animal as they are third in all of baseball in runs scored and an amazing 30-4 if they score the game's first run. Even more impressive is their 42-3 record this year when they score at least four runs. The Cubs have scored at least four times in all seven victories this year against the Pirates, six times scoring at least six runs. 8* Chi Cubs |
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06-19-16 | Yankees -134 v. Twins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (2:10 ET): I don't have a ton of faith in the Yankees moving forward, but it's tough not to like them Sunday as they look to finish off a sweep of the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. The Yanks have outscored the Twins 19-9 in the three games played thus far and the current price range has been quite friendly to them as they are a perfect 5-0 this season as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150. Right now, the Twins have very little to hang their hat on as they've dropped five in a row and eight of their last 10 overall. They are a hideous 10-37 off a loss this season. A -119 run differential confirms that, yes, this is indeed the worst team in all of baseball. Yanks have won eight of nine against the Twins since the start of last season (12-4 since '14). Like most situations, day games have been unkind to Minnesota this season. Their record is just 9-19 in such contests. They turn to the struggling Ervin Santana today and w/ a 1-11 team start record, he now has ignominy of being the biggest money-losing starting pitcher in all of baseball (-10.5 units). Lately, he's been really bad w/ a 7.79 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up exactly five runs in every start while lasting just a total of 17 1/3 IP. Last time out, he gave up a season-worst 10 hits in just five innings of work. In 17 career starts vs. New York, Santana owns a 6.22 ERA. This is the fourth time this season that the Twins find themselves on a losing streak of at least five games. Their struggles against the team in pinstripes extends well beyond the last couple of seasons as they are just 27-71 head to head going all the way back to '02 and have even dropped 19 of the past 24 home games. The club is now facing the prospect of being swept for a ninth time this season. This is all obviously very good news for Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is embattled himself, but recall that he concluded May w/ a three-start stretch that saw him allow just 2 ER in 18 IP. He should bounce back against this opponent. 8* NY Yankees |
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06-19-16 | Braves v. Mets -180 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -180 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets ought to be absolutely ashamed of themselves for dropping B2B games - at home no less - to the lowly Braves this weekend. After starter Matt Harvey regressed in the series opener, last night saw New York blow a 3-0 lead. They allowed Atlanta to score one run in four straight innings w/ the game winner coming on some plain lazy fielding. The Mets then had the potential game-tying run thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Such a loss simply cannot occur again if the Mets want to remain in the race for a playoff spot in the top-heavy National League. The fact Atlanta has won four in a row just shocks me. I cannot see them finishing off a sweep, however. Remember the giant chasm, which exists in the NL, that I constantly harp on? The fact is that only seven teams were expected to be contenders in the Senior Circuit this season. One of those seven, Pittsburgh, has begun to fall off the pace, but the other six all are sporting positive run differentials, something that no other NL club can currently claim. Though six games back of the first place Nats right now, the Mets are currently in position for a Wild Card. They are also 4-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -200 on the money line. Despite having matched a season-high w/ four straight wins, Atlanta is still -102 in run differential and has the worst record in the N.L. Simply put, there is no way they should be able to come in and sweep the Mets. Before this series started, the Mets were 5-1 against the Braves this year. Injuries have literally hurt the Mets, but they should not be an excuse against this weak opponent. On the mound, Terry Collins will turn to Jacob DeGrom, who has deserved a better fate than just 3-3 in 2016 considering a 2.82 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. Of course, the same thing could be said for his counterpart Julio Teheran here. But an Atlanta offense which has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball remains suspect and the team is just 7-14 in day games this season, averaging just 3.1 rpg. 6* NY Mets |
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06-18-16 | Braves v. Mets -245 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -245 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* NY Mets (8:15 ET): The line is here is typically higher than something that I would play, but the justification here should be pretty clear. This is an outstanding bounce back spot for the Mets, who suffered an embarrassing loss last night here at home to the lowly Braves. Really, one could see it coming as most were too quick to proclaim "Matt Harvey is back!" Tonight though, it's all about the fact the Braves, a terrible team that has actually won three straight, send a terrible pitcher to the mound, that being Aaron Blair, who in nine starts has a 7.59 ERA and 1.810 WHIP. This one shouldn't even be close. The Mets counter w/ Steven Matz, who is off his worst showing since his first start of the season. In between his first and last starts of 2016, Matz allowed 3 ER or less nine straight times and didn't give up any runs in four of those outings. The team has now lost three straight times w/ him on the bump, which is pretty shocking when you consider he was 11-1 w/ a 2.32 ERA over a 14-start stretch that went back to last June. Matz should love pitching against a Braves lineup which has produced the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. The Mets' own offense could use some help and that's where Blair comes in. Not only does he have more walks than strikeouts this year (yikes!), but the Braves' rookie starter also has lasted six full innings only once. There have been just three times he's lasted even five innings. In what is shaping up to be a very top-heavy National League, the Mets simply can't afford to drop multiple games to a horrible team like Atlanta, who still owns the National League's worst run differential at -103. They bounce back Saturday night. 5* NY Mets |
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06-18-16 | Blue Jays -116 v. Orioles | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
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06-18-16 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Phillies | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
8* Arizona (3:05 ET): If you've been following my MLB picks for any length of time this season, then you should probably be aware of the fact that I was quick to point out what an overachiever the Phillies had become in the early part of the season. Their won-loss record still remains a bit "propped up" due to a 15-6 record in one-run games (also perfect 4-0 in extras). But the bottom line is this is most certainly a bad ballclub, confirmed by a run differential that has now reached a woeful -94, a number that only three other teams (Reds, Twins, Braves) can claim to be worse than. Lately, the Phils have been just dreadful, getting outscored 41-9 during a four-game slide that includes a 10-2 loss here to Arizona yday. It'll be more of the same Saturday afternoon as they have to face Zack Greinke. Greinke initially had trouble adjusting to his new uniform, particularly when pitching at Chase Field. But he's over that now and has been really good on the road this year. In fact, the team has won all five of his road starts in 2016 w/ Greinke turning in a 1.54 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in those outings. Lately, he's just been superb regardless of locale as his ERA and WHIP are 0.78 and 0.783 respectively his L3 starts overall. He didn't allow any runs to either Houston or Tampa Bay and then beat the Dodgers his last time out, by allowing just two runs in seven innings. The Phillies lineup that Greinke will face today is MLB's second worst in terms of runs scored and averages only 2.8 per game at home. Offensively, Arizona could not be stopped last night as they belted a franchise record six home runs off Phillies pitching. Every starter in the lineup finished w/ at least one hit. That makes it 17 home runs and 56 hits allowed during this four-game losing streak by Phillies pitching and while tonight's starter Jerad Eickhoff has been relatively immune to the longball recently (none allowed L2 starts), his issue is control (four walks his last time out). When you're a bad team like the Phillies, it becomes a real killer to "beat yourself" in the field, yet that is precisely what this team has done by committing seven errors the last two days. The road team should win easily here - again. 8* Arizona |
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06-17-16 | Brewers v. Dodgers -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers let me down last night as they lost 8-6 here at home to the Brew Crew, but I look for them to bounce back tonight at Chavez Ravine. Remember that Milwaukee arrived here having been swept in their previous series (by the Giants). I'll continue to point to that giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League and in the case of this matchup we have one team better than its won-loss record and another not as good. The Dodgers might be only 35-33, but they've outscored opponents by 37 runs this year. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is actually now "sniffing" .500 (31-36), but has been outscored by 52 runs in 2016. Last night's game saw the Brewers blow a three-run lead, but then rally back to win the game in the top of the ninth via a two-run Jonathan Villar home run. The win snapped a four-game road losing streak for the Brew Crew, who are still just 12-19 away from Miller Park this season. I'm fairly shocked to see the numbers of starter Zack Davies, who has not lost in his L5 starts overall and has a 0.86 ERA and 0.571 WHIP his last three. Few could have seen this coming after his ERA was 8.78 after three starts this season. This will be his first time ever facing the Dodgers. I think it's an opportune time to "sell high" on Davies. Keep in mind that in three road starts this year, he has a terrible 7.82 ERA and 2.054 WHIP. Conversely, it may be a good time to "buy low" on the Dodgers' Jose Urias, a highly touted prospect that his failed to produce thus far. But he has been better in his last two starts, first allowing just a single run (in 4 IP) vs. Colorado and then giving up only two (in 5 1/3 IP) in what ended up being a hard luck loss at San Francisco his last time out. But Urias' KW ratio in those two starts is 14-2, which is certainly encouraging. To me, this is a really low price on the Dodgers at home against a National League also-ran. The team is 30-17 the L3 seasons as a ML home favorite of -150 to -175. 8* LA Dodgers |
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06-17-16 | White Sox v. Indians -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The first place Indians are off a very disappointing series against the division rival Royals, who swept them in a three-game set in Kansas City. But the Tribe now returns home to face a White Sox club that has been reeling for more than a month. Right off the bat, Cleveland draws a break in knowing that they won't have to go against Chris Sale this weekend. Of course, they did beat Sale and ended up taking three of four when these AL Central rivals met last month. That series really set in motion the White Sox downturn and even though they just took two of three from the Tigers this week, the fact remains they are a pretty woeful 10-23 their last 33 games. Obviously, I like Cleveland in tonight's series opener. What an odd season the White Sox' Jose Quintana is having. He has a 2.66 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his 13 starts, but the team is just 6-7. That ERA actually ranks 4th in the American League, but the problem has been a lack of run support as the offense is supplying him w/ just 2.67 per start. Each of his last six starts have resulted in team losses and the offense has scored only eight runs total in those games. Totals players will want to know that each of Quintana's last 12 starts have stayed Under the total. The last time these teams met, Quintana was on the hill for Chicago and it was a 4-3 loss. He allowed all three runs in six innings of work and that was at home. His last road start (at Detroit) was his worst all year as he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 IP. For the first time in three weeks, Cleveland had an off day. They counter w/ Trevor Bauer, who is off strong B2B outings, both on the road. The first saw him allow just one run and five hits in 7 2/3 IP (10-1 KW ratio) at Seattle. The second saw him go eight innings and allow just three runs in a hard luck loss to the Angels. Only once in his nine starts this season has Bauer allowed more than three earned runs. Consider that only twice all season has Cleveland been on a three-game losing streak. Both times saw them win their next time out. Opponents are batting .293 against White Sox pitching over the last week while averaging 5.1 rpg. 10* Cleveland |
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06-16-16 | Brewers v. Dodgers -156 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): A three-game set in San Francisco didn't go well at all for Milwaukee as they were swept and outscored 24-8 in the process. Now they travel down I-5 to Chavez Ravine and this weekend holds little promise as they face a Dodgers team that's every bit as good as the Giants. LA comes in off B2B victories over Arizona, including 3-2 yday w/ Clayton Kershaw on the bump. Perhaps not having to face Kershaw is the Brew Crew's only "saving grace" in this series, but the fact remains these teams are "miles apart" in terms of run differential with Milwaukee checking in at -54 and the Dodgers at +39. In both cases, the won-loss records are a bit misleading. I constantly harp on that giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League this season and that's something I'll look to exploit this evening. |
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06-16-16 | Yankees -125 v. Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
9* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): This is a battle of last place teams in the American League as the Yankees arrive in the Twin Cities on a four-game losing skid, having been just swept in a short two-game series in Colorado. Their -26 run differential confirms that they are indeed the worst team in the AL East right now, but if there is a "cure" for what ills them, then it would certainly have to be playing the Twins, who are easily the worst team in the league right now at 20-47 w/ a -109 run differential. Last season saw the Yanks take five of six from a Minnesota team that was playing a whole lot better. The guys in pinstripes are certainly receiving a lot of "love" in early betting and when a road team draws this amount of support, you typically want to back them. What a renaissance for CC Sabathia in 2016. The hefty lefty is currently working on a 14-inning scoreless streak and improbably is top ten in ERA in all of baseball right now (fourth in American League)! In fact, through 10 starts, Sabathia has never had an ERA this low in his entire career! He's actually healthy this year (helps!) and since May 4th, that ERA is 0.71 over six starts, the lowest ERA he has ever produced over a stretch of that length in his entire career. Even more encouraging is the fact that Sabathia has typically dominated Minnesota throughout his career, going 17-9 against them all-time (3.20 ERA), including 5-1 as a member of the Yankees. The lineup he'll be facing tonight managed only five hits in a loss to the Angels last night. There's also the issue of a relatively quick turnaround for the Twins after returning from the West Coast early today. The Yankees at least played in the daytime yday and one time zone closer. The Twins' top hitter, Joe Mauer, is just 7 for 43 lifetime (.163 BA) vs. Sabathia. Minnesota will counter CC w/ Kyle Gibson and that's not really a fair fight. Gibson has yet to win a decision here in 2016 and in five career starts vs. the Yanks has a 10.72 ERA. Last time out, he allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings as the team lost 15-4 to the Red Sox. Though New York is just 13-20 on the road overall this year, they are a perfect 3-0 as a ML favorite in the -125 to -150 range. Minnesota is 2-5 this year after allowing 10+ runs its previous game. 9* NY Yankees |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -168 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox hot start (to the season) is now a thing of the past as they lost again yday (11-8 to the Tigers), dropping them to a miserable 9-23 their last 32 games overall. Even when they did beat the Tigers on Monday, it only came after falling into a deep 7-0 hole early. But tonight's play is all about one man and that's Chris Sale. The staff ace has hardly been immune to his team's losing ways over the last month, but I did take him his last time out and while it was actually one of his poorest outings of the season, it resulted in a win nonetheless. Having still allowed 2 ER or fewer in eight of his L11 starts, I expect the result to be the same for Sale here, only this time w/ a better individual performance. Having fallen behind 7-0 and 10-2 the L2 days, Chicago clearly is in dire need of a strong start here. Fortunately, they have the luxury of turning to Sale, who became MLB's first 11-game winner last Friday. Yes, he did allow five runs and a season-high 11 hits. But, taking the full season into account here, it's certainly reasonable to expect him to bounce back. Now he did take a loss at Detroit back on 6.4 after allowing four runs on nine hits. But, again, the second go around should go a lot smoother than the first. Especially because it takes place at home. Here at U.S. Cellular Field, Sale has a 5-1 team start record and 1.042 WHIP. Last time out was a real anomaly as he gave up three home runs for just the sixth time in his career and a HR to a LH batter for just the third time in his entire CAREER! Again, he still got the win. Mike Pelfrey will be starting opposite Sale for a second time this year. Overall, Pelfrey has been a little better of late, but he did take the loss his last time out due in large part to five walks. Of course, he also really didn't have much of chance seeing as his offense was shut out. It's also hard to discount an earlier stretch in the season where Pelfrey allowed five runs in three consecutive starts. He has a 1-6 record (Only win against Sale and White Sox!) and 1.729 WHIP on the season. He's unlikely to get the kind of run support he'd require for a win here, so I'm backing the home team with its ace on the hill. 8* Chi White Sox |
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06-15-16 | Blue Jays -152 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): As one probably should have expected, the Blue Jays bounced back in a major way Tuesday, winning in emphatic 11-3 fashion. The previous day saw them lose in similarly embarrassing fashion, by a score of 7-0. Bettors took Toronto all the way up to almost -300 on the money line yday, but with this Interleague series now shifting scenes to Philadelphia, we are now able to grab a far more affordable price on the better team. I've stated my opinion on Philly many teams throughout the course of this season; this is a bad team being "propped up" up a very fortunate 15-6 record in one-run games (most one-run wins in all of baseball). They are also 4-0 in extra-inning games (most such wins w/o a loss in all of baseball). With yday's loss, their run differential has now dropped to a hideous -70, which is fourth worst in all of baseball and more indicative of a 23-win team, not a 30-win one. I really like Toronto tonight w/ Marco Estrada on the hill. He comes in w/ a 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Toronto victories. In fact, the team has won each of his last five starts w/ Estrada turning in a quality outing every time. His ERA and WHIP are 2.57 and 1.004 respectively in 12 starts and his last time out saw him hold a strong Baltimore lineup to just three runs and four hits in six innings of work. This is a far more favorable matchup for him as the Phillies come in having scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Phillies' Jeremy Hellickson is coming off an awful showing where he gave up seven runs at Washington last Friday. Though the Blue Jays were surprisingly shut out on Monday, their offense is finally starting to come around as they've scored 10 or more runs in three of the past four ballgames. Note that the Phillies are 9-19 the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs in the previous game. So, I would expect the Jays, who are hitting a collective .278 the L7 games, to get to Hellickson here. In the grand scheme of things, these teams are trending in very opposite directions w/ Toronto winning 17 of its last 25 while Philadelphia has lost 18 of 24 including five of their last six. 8* Toronto |
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06-14-16 | Marlins v. Padres -128 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres were beaten up pretty good last night, losing at home 13-4 to Miami. I expect them to bounce back tonight behind the underrated Drew Pomeranz. Note that I continue to maintain that the Marlins are pretty overrated, at least in terms of won-loss record. They still have a run differential of -10, even after last night's big win, so them being a couple games above .500 really is not indicative of how well they've actually played this season. Home teams that suffer losses like the one San Diego did last night typically bounce back strong the following night. Sure enough, the Padres are 5-2 this year after giving up 10+ runs their previous game. They are also 3-0 as a ML home favorite of -125 to -150. When talking about starting pitchers "deserving" of better records, Pomeranz name must be on that list. Though his TSR is just 5-7, Pomeranz has pitched well w/ a 2.44 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. In five of his 12 starts, he hasn't even been charged with an earned run! There have been only two where he's allowed more than three. In five home starts, that ERA drops down to 1.52. Make no mistake about it, Pomeranz is now the Padres de facto ace as he ranks second in the entire National League w/ a 1.34 ERA in night games, sixth in K's per nine innings (10.7) and third in opponents batting average .184. Miami's leadoff man Ichiro Suzuki may sit here as he approaches 3,000 career MLB hits and Pete Rose's all time professional record of 4,256 (Suzuki had 1,278 hits in Japan). Giancarlo Stanton (who sat yday) has been awful of late, going 3 for 25 at the plate and he's now a woeful .192 this year. San Diego's top hitter Wil Myers leads all of MLB w/ seven home runs in June after hitting another yday. That was actually one of four San Diego home runs last night, the problem was they were all solo shots! Miami's starter for tonight, Tom Koehler, hasn't been too susceptible to the long ball this season, however, he does have a 1.530 WHIP over 12 starts. The Marlins have lost eight of those, including six of the last eight. 10* San Diego |
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06-14-16 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): The Dodgers lost yday, 3-2, to the Diamondbacks. Me personally, I was on the Under, so I was a winner. Of course, Arizona's win came w/ former Dodger Zack Greinke on the hill. He obviously won't be available the rest of the series, so LA is back to its customary role of favorite and I'm calling for them to reassert themselves. Arizona has hardly been dominant at home this year as their record at Chase Field is only 13-23. Like last night's play on San Francisco over Milwaukee, I keep coming back to the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League. We've got one team from each group here and I think things will play out accordingly. Starting Tuesday for Dodger Blue will be Kenta Maeda, who in 12 starts has a 2.70 ERA and 1.057 WHIP. So you'd expect him to have a better team start record than 6-6. But that's what the TSR is. However, on the road, he's unbeaten in five tries (4-1 TSR) w/ an even better 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP. It was the definition of a hard-luck loss his last time out, at home, against the Rockies. The Dodgers lost that game, 1-0, with Maeda allowing just the run on five hits over 6 2/3 IP. He also had nine strikeouts. His last road start, he tossed five scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Mets and won as a +130 underdog. In eight of his 12 starts this year, Maeda has allowed 2 ER or fewer. Not only is Arizona just 13-23 at Chase Field, they're being outscored here by nearly a full run per game. Tonight's starter Archie Bradley certainly didn't fare too well at home his last time out, giving up four runs in just 5 2/3 innings as the team lost 6-3 to Tampa Bay. It was the second straight time that the team lost w/ Bradley on the hill. As a team, Arizona is -30 in run differential, so being eight games under .500 is probably deserved. As for Los Angeles, they have a run differential of +35, so they certainly deserve to be better than just a game over .500. Each of their last five games have been decided by one run w/ them going only 1-4. That's just plain bad luck. They are 30-12 though vs. Arizona since the start of the 2014 season. 8* LA Dodgers |
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06-14-16 | Orioles v. Red Sox -170 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a big series in the American League East with the two teams tied a top the division at 36-26 playing three in a row here at Fenway Park. But while the records may be the same, the respective run differentials are anything but w/ the Red Sox holding a massive advantage in that department (+85 vs. +27). Baltimore may have won four of the seven head to head meetings so far this season, but they arrive in Boston in poor form having just dropped three in a row to another division foe, Toronto, on the road. Away from home, the Orioles are only 12-15 (fewest road games played in all of MLB) and in tonight's series opener, the hosts look to have a pretty big edge in starting pitching. |
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06-13-16 | Brewers v. Giants -134 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): It's back to the "chasm" I keep harping on this season in handicapping the National League as there is a giant one separating the contenders and non-contenders. That's certainly enough for me to overlook the fact the Giants had to play last night, especially w/ them available at the current price, at home no less. Despite being off B2B wins, Milwaukee shouldn't scare anyone as they've still been outscored by 38 runs over the course of the year. Both starters here have shown tremendous improvement over their last three starts, but I don't think we should be "buying" on the Brew Crew's Chase Anderson as he's faced three bad teams in a row. Again, this is a really great price on the home team. Matt Cain goes for the Giants here and he's coming off a 17-day layoff due to a strained right hamstring. The team lost both times his turn in the rotation came up and he wasn't able to go. The strained hamstring came at a time when Cain really seemed to be finding his groove. He'd previously beaten the Cubs (as a +155 dog) by allowing just one run in six innings. That came after allowing one run in seven innings at Arizona and two in eight innings vs. Toronto. His career marks against Milwaukee are surprisingly poor, but this Brewers lineup is not one to be really feared, particularly on the road where they are batting a collective .231. The Brew Crew are being outscored by a full run per game outside of Miller Park this season. The Giants are off a big win Sunday night, 2-1 over the rival Dodgers, as they won that series and thus increased their lead in the NL West in the process. I mentioned earlier that the pitcher they'll face here, Chase Anderson, has faced nothing but bad teams his L3 starts. Those opponents were Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Oakland, who have been outscored by a combined 226 runs this year and are all in the bottom five in all of baseball in terms of run differential. So this will be a big step up in class for Anderson and one that I'm pretty sure he won't be able to handle as his ERA in three career starts vs. the Giants is a really poor 8.53. 8* San Francisco |
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06-13-16 | Indians -125 v. Royals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
9* Cleveland (8:15 ET): Kansas City has revenge here, for a four-game sweep they suffered in Cleveland last weekend. Overall, they are just 1-6 vs. the Indians this year. Normally, I might be inclined to back the revenge angle, but not here as the Royals are not as good as their record (mediocre as it may be) might indicate. Their -21 run differential is just 4th in their own division & only three teams in the entire American League are worse. Meanwhile, Cleveland has surged to the top of the AL Central by virtue of winning 9 of their last 12 games overall. They downed the Angels yday, 8-3, & their own run differential (+47) is third best in the AL. Tonight's pitching matchup also seems heavily tilted in their favor. In his second start back following a month long stint on the DL, Carlos Carrasco allowed four runs at Seattle in his last time out and the team lost 5-0 to the Mariners. However, Carrasco's WHIP in three road starts remains a fantastic 0.692. Kansas City's offense woke up a little bit against the White Sox over the weekend, averaging 4.0 rpg in the three-game set. But, this is a team that has still scored only 20 runs total over its L10 games. That obviously won't get it done, especially with the starting rotation lacking dominant arms. In Cleveland last weekend, they were held to six runs total in four games, three times scoring one run or less. Carrasco came out on the winning end of the closest game, which was the opener, a 5-4 Tribe win. The Royals counter Carrasco w/ Edinson Volquez, who has allowed four or more runs in five of his last five starts. That includes giving up five to Cleveland on June 3rd. Over his last three starts, Volquez has a 6.35 ERA and 1.471 WHIP. The team was shut out in his last start, losing 4-0 to Baltimore as Volquez was responsible for all four runs in just 4 2/3 innings. When he faced Cleveland back in May, he again allowed five runs, this time in only 4 1/3 IP. That makes it three straight losses to the Indians overall as last September saw him get beat 6-0 here in his home park. Cleveland averaged over 6.0 rpg this year, outscoring them 44-11. 9* Cleveland |
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06-12-16 | Rangers -107 v. Mariners | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
10* Texas (4:10 ET): The Rangers dealt the Mariners a stinging loss on Saturday as they tied the game 1-1 in the top of the ninth and then won it in the 11th. With Cole Hamels on the bump Sunday, they are poised to take the series. Hamels has not lost on the road this year, going 3-0 in five starts w/ a 2.08 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. He faced Seattle very early in the year and outdueled Felix Hernandez for a 3-2 win, going seven innings and allowing only four hits. The M's are forced to counter w/ Wade Miley, who has an 8.75 ERA in his two starts vs. the Rangers this season. Yes, my free play was on Seattle yday and they have the better run differential for the year. But Hamels nullifies those factors. Though he hasn't won since May 22nd, there's been only two times in 12 starts this year that Hamels has allowed more than 3 ER. The team is 8-4 w/ him on the mound. Last time out, he held Houston to just two runs and four hits over 7 IP in what ended up being a 4-3 win. I'm not really concerned w/ the number of walks and home runs allowed by Hamels in his last five starts as four of them still ended up being quality and his career numbers would seem to indicate that the number of walks and home runs will soon start to decrease again. Seattle is averaging just 3.7 runs per game over its last seven contests while batting a collective .229. Meanwhile, the Mariners' Miley has not been effective for the most part in 2016. He has turned in some rather "random" quality efforts, such as his last time out when he held Cleveland scoreless for seven innings and gave up only four hits. But his start before that, he gave up nine runs and 12 hits at San Diego and has a 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Miley is simply too inconsistent to trust and I highly doubt he'll be able to match Hamels. Another factor to consider is that Seattle has a losing home record this year (15-17). 10* Texas |
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06-12-16 | Astros -128 v. Rays | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:10 ET): These have been two of the more disappointing teams in the American League so far. Emblematic of the struggles of the Astros has been the plight of their ace Dallas Keuchel, who is actually second from the bottom in net units among all MLB starters this year at -9.2 units (4-9 team start record). Only Minnesota's Ervin Santana (-9.7) is slightly worse. But I fully anticipate Keuchel turning his season around and all things considered this is a very cheap price on the team that won yday. Houston has actually turned things around somewhat w/ wins in 13 of their last 19 games overall. Make it 14 out of 20 after today. Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner by the way, has shown some signs of his 2015 form lately. He's posted a 0.984 WHIP his L3 starts and a real key is that he's walked only one batter during that time. Meanwhile, he has 19 strikeouts and except for four home runs, there's really been nothing to "complain" about here. The two-run shot he allowed in the eighth inning vs. Texas is what lost the team the game Tuesday. But other than that, he pitched well. He matched a season-high w/ eight strikeouts and 73 of his 115 pitches went for strikes. I give Keuchel a big edge over his lefty counterpart Matt Moore, who has allowed a HR in five straight starts and has a 5.78 ERA and 1.553 WHIP his last three. Only once in his last nine starts has Moore allowed fewer than 3 ER. If the respective bullpens come into play this afternoon, and you have to figure they will, that's another big advantage for the Astros. Early in the year, their relievers showed major regression from last year's improvement, but since May 1st no bullpen has been better. Over the L23 games, this group has posted an ERA under 2.00. Now that the Ken Giles disaster seems to be behind them, Will Harris has emerged as the new closer thanks to a 0.63 ERA and 30 strikeouts. Tampa Bay's bullpen, which has been overworked all season, has issues and Kevin Cash simply doesn't have a lot of options right now. That was apparent when he had to turn to Dana Eveland and his 6.75 ERA in the ninth inning Saturday. The Rays are batting a collective .219 at home this season. 10* Houston |
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06-11-16 | Royals v. White Sox -138 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The Royals are in a lot of trouble right now. Not only have they lost eight straight games, but run differential says they are just the fourth best team in their own division. I went against them last night as Chris Sale got the White Sox back on track. Despite hitting three home runs yday, Kansas City's offense remains a concern as they came into this series having scored 1 or 0 runs in six consecutive games. The White Sox were experiencing their own set of issues (had dropped 20 of 26 at one point), but they're now off B2B wins and I think this series is theirs for the taking. |
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06-11-16 | Phillies v. Nationals -154 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
8* Washington (12:05 ET): I feel that this is a tremendous value on the Nats at home, not just because they dominated this same opponent yday (won 9-6), but also because I have such little regard for the Phillies in general. The underdog here has somehow been able to hover around .500 for most of this season (currently three games below), but that record is clearly undeserved judging by a -60 run differential that is bottom five in all of baseball. Lately though, Philly has really hit the skids (lost 11 of 14) and while the road team is 8-2 in head to head meetings this season, I would not be the least bit surprised if Washington swept their division rival right out of town this weekend. |
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06-10-16 | Padres v. Rockies -169 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -169 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Already, this is the fourth series played between these teams this season. Every time, San Diego has taken two of three. But I believe this go around could go a lot better for the Rockies, who come in off B2B wins, including 11-5 over the Mets in a make-up game yday. For tonight's series opener, there's already been a big line move in their favor. Though the Padres have won four of six overall, all of those of games took place at home and the last series was against lowly Atlanta. On the road, SD is just 10-18 this season. In terms of YTD run differential, Colorado looks like the much better team here as they are only -8 while San Diego is -47. Jon Gray will pitch here for the home side and he's looked pretty sharp of late. The team has won each of the L3 times he's taken the mound, including a 10-3 victory at San Diego his last time out. While he certainly got plenty of run support there, Gray also turned in - by far- his sharpest performance of 2016 w/ 12 K's as he allowed just 2 ER over seven innings. It was his third straight start allowing just five hits and he walked only one batter, giving him a 1.082 WHIP over that timespan. Throughout his career, Gray has had the Padres' number as he has 1.96 ERA in four starts w/ a 34-4 KW ratio. The Padres will go w/ Andrew Cashner in this one and he's yet to win on the road in four tries this year. His ERA and WHIP, respectively, are 5.40 ERA and 1.550 in those four outings. It's highly unlikely that those numbers go down here after pitching at Coors Field. Despite having a losing record at home so far, the Rockies average 5.9 rpg and are batting a collective .297. 8* Colorado |
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06-10-16 | Royals v. White Sox -168 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Things certainly did not go well for the White Sox when they last met the Royals (Memorial Day Weekend) as they were swept in a three-game series. In fact, they're now just 1-5 vs. their division rival this season and in the midst of a real "downward spiral" overall as they've quickly gone from first place in the AL Central (were 24-12) to a .500 team through 60 games (that's a 6-18 record L24 games, if you're keeping score at home). The slide has even affected the team's ace, Chris Sale, who has lost three straight after a 9-0 start to the campaign. But, since sweeping the White Sox, the Royals happen to have gone down the tubes themselves as they've been swept by both Cleveland and Baltimore in the last two series (seven straight losses). I think this is a great spot for Sale and company to get back on track. Sale has only one bad start on his resume, that coming against Cleveland on May 24th, his first loss of the year. The bullpen betrayed him his next time out (that was against KC!) and then while he did allow 4 ER to Detroit the last time we saw him, that was another time the bullpen couldn't get the job done. Let's remember here that Sale has still allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his last 10 starts overall. That includes the outing in Kansas City and what makes this rematch so attractive is that the Royals offense has been downright pathetic of late. They are averaging only 1.1 rpg during the seven game slide (batting a collective .214). They've scored 1 or 0 runs in each of their last six ballgames. The reigning World Series champs will counter Sale w/ Ian Kennedy, but that shouldn't scare anyone. Kennedy allowed five runs last Saturday in Cleveland as the team took a 7-1 loss. Also, it should be pointed out that while the Royals may be one-half game up on Chicago in the standings, their YTD run differential is actually much worse (-24) and that's due in large part to a terrible 11-22 road record, which is second worst in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota). By the way, Chicago did win yday (as an underdog), 3-1 over Washington. They are 18-12 off a win this season. 8* Chi White Sox |
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06-10-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -149 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): St. Louis has been kind to me each of the last two days as I was on them for both wins over Cincinnati, but it's a step up in class here and one they have certainly struggled w/ this year as the Pirates have taken five of the six head to head meetings. That includes a three-game sweep here at PNC Park to start the year. While the recent schedule isn't too favorable here to the home team, which had to fly out to Colorado to play a make up game yday, the result of that game (as bad as it may look) might be. The Bucs won the only time this year they allowed 10+ runs the previous game & they are 8-2 in this spot since the start of the 2014 season. I also like the pitching matchup here for the Bucs. Gerrit Cole gets the nod here for Pittsburgh and he's posted a 2.91 ERA in 11 career starts vs. St. Louis. That includes him allowing just two runs over six innings in a 10-5 win back on May 8th at Busch Stadium, which begat a six-start stretch of allowing 3 ER or less every time out. In fact, he's allowed more than 3 ER in only one start all season. Cole doesn't allow many home runs (just three all year) either. He didn't travel w/ the team yday, so that he could be ready here. Though his K/9 rate is at a career-low right now, sometimes that can be overplayed. His ERA is 2.85 and while he didn't factor into the decision his last time out, he looked as good as ever (67 strikes vs. 35 balls). I'm expecting him to pitch well here. When Cole beat the Cards back on 5.8, Michael Wacha was the loser. It has not been a particularly great season for Wacha thus far as he hasn't won a game since April 23rd. Things have only gotten worse over his L3 outings as he has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. Three times in his last five starts, Wacha has allowed six or more runs while failing to make it past the fourth innings. Against Pittsburgh, he allowed four runs in six innings. Though the team did win his last time out, 7-4 over San Francisco, Wacha was responsible for all four runs surrendered. Also, in his previous five starts, opponents wound up scoring 10, 12, 7, 8 and 10 runs respectively. Not good. Pirates take the series opener. 8* Pittsburgh |
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06-09-16 | Cardinals -150 v. Reds | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): As I called for, the Cardinals bounced back yday w/ a pretty convincing 12-7 victory over the Reds. While they may have dropped Tuesday's series opener, the Redbirds have really owned this NL Central rivalry through the years, taking 28 of the past 43 meetings and 14 of the past 21 series including seven of 10 here at Great American Ballpark. In yday's analysis, I outlined how St. Louis has underachieved this year in terms of their run differential (+58), which is indicative of a 35-win team (actual record is 31-28). That run differential is actually tied for fourth best in all of MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds are every bit as bad as their 22-37 record shows as they've been outscored by 95 runs this year, the second worst differential in all of baseball. I have the Cards beating them in today's series finale. When it comes to St. Louis' ability to score runs in this game, one must not only consider the starter they face (Brandon Finnegan), but also just how wretched this Reds' bullpen is. After yday, Reds' relievers now have a 6.73 ERA and 1.700 WHIP for the year. They've allowed five or more runs in each of the last three games. Finnegan, who has a 3-9 team start record overall, has actually pitched worse at home where his ERA and WHIP are 4.64 and 1.364 WHIP respectively. Of course, the Cardinals don't have much issue scoring runs; they have scored 325 times this year, the most among National League teams. Adam Wainwright may have an 8-4 team start record, but he hasn't necessarily pitched as well as we've come to expect from him. But in his last three starts, he's done a better job at keeping runners off base (1.10 WHIP) and is off four straight quality starts. He can expect plenty of run support here (see above), so as long as he's not as bad as he was the first time he faced the Reds this year, the team is in good shape. Including allowing a season-high seven runs to Cincy back on April 16th, I'm a little surprised how poor his career marks vs. them are. But the improvement he's shown lately coupled with the likely run support (I haven't even mentioned how Cards hit .271 off lefties!) has me going "all in" on the road team. 8* St. Louis |
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06-09-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -146 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -146 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): I constantly harp on the idea of "buying low" and "selling high." Well, this series opener is a chance to do the latter as the Orioles' "stock" is sky high right now coming off a dominating sweep of the Royals, whom they outscored 17-2 over the course of three games. They've now won seven of their last eight overall and currently lead the AL East w/ a 35-23 record. But it needs to be noted that this club has played a MLB-low 23 times on the road this year and is just 11-12 in those games. This series in Toronto, winners of six of nine themselves, is a big one for the home team and I like them to win Thursday behind Marcus Stroman. Stroman may be off B2B ugly outings against Boston and has not pitched well in three of his last four starts overall. But he got the win over Baltimore earlier this year by allowing just three runs in 7 IP and that was the team's only win in a 3-game set in Camden Yards. Stroman also was on the winning end of a 15-2 final at Baltimore last September when he allowed only one run and five hits in 8 IP. It would be a nice break here if he didn't have to face Manny Machado, who should be suspended any day now for his role in the brawl w/ the Royals earlier in the week. The Orioles' offense has been held to four runs or fewer in three of their past four wins, so it's not like they're hitting the cover off the ball right now. What that means then is Baltimore has been getting tremendous pitching of late. I don't think that will be the case here tonight w/ Tyler Wilson on the mound. The last time Wilson started was the last time the O's lost, 8-6 at the Yankee Stadium, as Wilson allowed five runs in just four innings. The team has now lost each of his L4 starts. Toronto broke out for seven runs in yday's win and let's not discount the slight advantage they get coming off day game while Baltimore didn't arrive here North of the Border until much later. This is a really big series for the Blue Jays and a good time to fade the Orioles. 8* Toronto |
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06-08-16 | Cardinals -169 v. Reds | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): I was obviously left quite disappointed last night when the Cardinals lost to the Reds, 7-6. Especially since they rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to tie the game in the top of the ninth. A Joey Votto walk-off gave the home team the win, but I'm willing to bet that today's starter (Alfredo Simon) won't give them the kind of start John Lamb did yday. Of course, yday's game also reinforced just how bad this Cincinnati bullpen is. It was the second straight game that they blew a five-run lead. Overall, the Reds are just an awful team, having been outscored by a whopping 90 runs this season (2nd worst differential in baseball). As I said in yday's analysis, St. Louis has greatly underachieved so far this season given their own run differential is +53 (tied for 4th best in MLB). Simon has been really bad for Cincy w/ an 8.55 ERA and 1.877 WHIP in his 11 starts. All things considered, he actually wasn't that terrible in Colorado last week as he allowed "only" four runs in seven innings. Of course, it really didn't matter as his offense ended up scoring 11 times. Still, Simon is averaging less than five runs per start this year and made it only one inning when he faced St. Louis back in April. He gave up four runs, including two home runs, in that one inning. Despite yday's win, the Reds remain 15-27 their last 42 games vs. the Cardinals. Cards starter Jaime Garcia has a strong track record vs. the Reds. He's gone 10-4 w/ a 3.50 ERA in 19 career appearances (17 starts) against them. The last time he faced them was September of last season and he gave up just one run in seven innings. Traditionally, St. Louis has been a really good bounce back team as they are 102-64 off a loss since the start of the 2014 season. 8* St. Louis |