10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): Cincinnati has been a wonderful story this season, making it to just their third Super Bowl in history. This is a franchise that had not won a playoff game going all the way back to 1990. But let’s be frank here; the Bengals have been outgained on a per play basis in each of the last three games. In their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988, they found themselves down 21-3 to the Chiefs, yet somehow pulled out a miraculous 27-24 overtime win. The Bengals feel like they will be a very “public dog” come Super Sunday, thus I’m going to fade them. 

I think people are forgetting that this is the second time in four years that the Rams are appearing in the Super Bowl. The last time didn’t go well as they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in the lowest scoring SB ever. But this Rams team is better AND playing on its home field. Now, SoFi Stadium isn’t exactly the strongest homefield advantage in the league. But the Rams are 7-3 SU here this season and know the place well. Let’s not forget what happened in LY’s SB when Tampa Bay, playing on its homefield, destroyed Kansas City. It’s pretty interesting that no team played in its home stadium for the first 49 Super Bowls and now it’s happened two years in a row. 

The Rams have pretty clearly been the better team in all three of their playoff games. They boat raced Arizona (in this stadium), then went on the road and took a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay. That game should have never ended up being so close at the end. In the NFC Championship, the Rams did trail most of the way, but also outgained the 49ers 396-282. The big key in this matchup is the Rams’ defense, which is easily the best Cincinnati will have faced this season. Incredibly, the Bengals have faced just ONE top 10 defense in 2021-22! Again, it’s been a nice story out of Cincy, but look for it to end poorly and this team to regress next year. The Rams are simply better. 10* LA Rams

10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): So the 49ers swept the regular season series and have now beaten the Rams six straight times (while going 5-1 ATS). I actually had the Niners in both regular season matchups. The first time they were 3.5 point underdogs at home on MNF. That was the game that really turned around their season. San Fran was just 3-5 SU at that time and hadn’t won a home game in more than a year. They ended up prevailing rather easily, 31-10. The second meeting had far more importance as this time the Niners needed to win to make the playoffs. That’s why I took them plus the points and it ended up being a 27-24 outright win in overtime. 

While the Niners were deserved winners here in LA back in Week 18 (ended up +184 in total yards), allow me to remind you that the Rams led 17-0 at halftime. It is the only time during his head coaching tenure that Sean McVay lost a game when leading at the break (45-0). The 49ers again rallied from a halftime deficit in the Divisional Round, ousting the top seeded Packers on a last second field goal, 13-10. But remember that wouldn’t have been possible without returning a blocked punt for a TD in the 4Q. I’m aware that the Niners have been real “road warriors” in recent years, but their luck is about to run out here. 

Let’s start with the fact that no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye since 1961. Teams in the playoffs that are playing their fourth consecutive road game are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. I think the 49ers were a little lucky to prevail against both Dallas (who had bad clock management) and Green Bay (gained only 212 total yards). The Rams have been far more impressive in their two playoff wins, routing Arizona 34-11 and taking a 27-3 lead at Tampa Bay. I find it very hard to believe that the Rams would lose a seventh straight time to the Niners. They didn’t have anything to really play for the last time. Jimmy G remains a liability for a team that easily could have lost all of its last three games. Lay the points. 10* LA Rams

9* Under Bengals/Chiefs (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. I also don’t think this game will be as high scoring as the original. 

The O/U line closed at 51.0 for the regular season meetings. It’s predictable that the number for the rematch is a few points higher and that the majority of bettors are on the Over. Especially since the last seven Chiefs’ games have all gone Over. But, every Bengals game since the win over the Chiefs has gone Under the total. They could barely muster 300 total yards against the Raiders in the Wild Card Game and the offense frequently fizzled against a defense that was last in red zone efficiency. Last week, the Bengals managed only one touchdown in the win over the Titans and got 10 points off turnovers, including the GW FG.

On the bright side, one of two touchdowns allowed by the Bengals’ defense last week came on a short field. Stopping Mahomes will obviously be more difficult. But - with just two minutes left in regulation against the Bills - the Chiefs had “only” 26 points. The Cincinnati defense is only allowing 16.9 PPG on the road, which is why the Under is 7-2 in those games (just 42.3 PPG total scored). The Chiefs allow only 19.5 PPG at home where the total number of PPG scored is 48.5. I see value with the Under here. 9* Under Bengals/Chiefs

8* Kansas City (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. The loss to the Bengals is the only time KC has gone down since early November and they’ve put up 42 points in each playoff win. 

The Bengals have done well as underdogs this season, but KC is just the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of its first 19 games. The last four have all gone on to the Super Bowl. This will be the 13th consecutive time the Chiefs have been favored to win in the playoffs, the last 10 all coming with Mahomes as QB, a stretch that has seen the team go 7-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS when favored by at least four points, as they are here. 

Cincy just has the feeling of a “public dog” in this spot. They deserve kudos for making it thus far, but also beat a subpar Raiders team in the Wild Card Round, then arguably the weakest #1 seed we’ve ever seen (Tennessee) last weekend. Kansas City beat a subpar Pittsburgh team in Wild Card Weekend, but then ousted the #1 team in my power rankings (Buffalo) last week. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 7.5 yards per play in the two playoff wins! The Bengals have actually been outgained on a per play basis in both of their playoff wins. Lay the points. 8* Kansas City

10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. 

The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. 

Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo

8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible.

Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here.

These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5.  This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs 

8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under.

The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3.

The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. 

It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. 

The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams

10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. 

Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. 

Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs

8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. 

Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. 

The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home!  On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas

10* Under Raiders/Bengals (4:30 ET): When these teams met in the regular season, it was 32-13 Bengals, but that was a little bit misleading as both teams gained less than 300 total yards. I don’t see this rematch being higher scoring, so Under is a logical call here. It was only 13-6 going into the 4Q in Vegas back in Week 11. It was 16-13 with just over five minutes to go. After capping a 62-yard drive with a JaMar Chase TD, the Bengals piled on 10 more points due to two late Derek Carr interceptions. It was a somewhat misleading final.

Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow led the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But he actually threw for a season-low 148 yards when he faced the Raiders. The Bengals’ offense had just one play of 20+ yards in that game and it was a Joe Mixon run. Burrow has been sacked a league-leading 51 times. The Raiders don’t send a ton of pressure, but as we saw last week against the Chargers, Maxx Crosby can certainly be a disrupting presence. 

I do think the Bengals will still win this game, however, and that’s mainly because I don’t expect a ton from a Las Vegas offense that is far too dependent on drawing PI calls to move the sticks. Even with a full overtime session last week, the Raiders still only gained 346 total yards. Even during their four-game win streak (four wins by a total of 12 points), their offense was just 18th in the league in yards per drive. Before last week, they had been held to 17 pts or less in five of the previous seven games. 10* Under Raiders/Bengals

10* Georgia (8:00 ET): When I took Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, I noted that it felt like the all-time “buy low” situation on Nick Saban as his Crimson Tide were underdogs for just the second time in 165 games. They needed the game more than Georgia did (to get into the CFP) and sure enough, at the end of the day it ended up being an outright 41-24 win by Bama as 6.5 point underdogs. The spread is shorter this time, predictably so, but I am pivoting to Georgia for the rematch. This time, the Bulldogs will be ready and the more motivated side. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The game was never in doubt as UGA rolled to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and was up 27-3 at halftime. Really, the final score could have been a lot worse. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. 

Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. This is a team that led most of the way in virtually every other game besides the SEC Championship. To me, the key here is if the UGA defense looks like it did in every other game this year. I don’t think there’s any way that ‘Bama goes for 41 points again. The Tide won’t have WR John Metchie this time. Georgia has been the better team all year in my eyes as Bama had the close calls vs. Auburn, LSU and Arkansas down the stretch. I don’t see Bama upsetting Georgia twice. 10* Georgia

8* Under Georgia/Alabama (8:00 ET): The SEC Championship Game was a 41-24 final, but I don’t see the rematch (for the National Championship) being that high scoring. For starters, Alabama doesn’t have WR John Metchie this time. Metchie suffered a season-ending injury in the first meeting, after hauling in six catches for 97 yards. Also, note there was a defensive TD scored in the SEC Championship, which probably won’t happen again. Both defenses looked dominant in their respective semi final victories. Both those games went Under and I’m banking on this one to do the same. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. The Tide are the only offense to score multiple touchdowns in the same game against Georgia. 

Now it should be pointed out that Alabama’s defense also looked pretty ferocious against Cincinnati, holding them to just six points and 218 total yards. For the year, the Crimson Tide allow just 19.2 PPG. With this being a second meeting, there’s greater familiarity between the two sides. Probably not a lot of surprises from either offense. 8* Under Georgia/Alabama

10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): In the name of point differential, the Chargers MUST win this game. They have outscored opponents by 18 points this season. That’s certainly nothing special, but it’s what you’d expect from a 9-7 SU team that’s trying to grab one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. It’s far more impressive than Las Vegas, who is also 9-7 SU but has been outscored this year by 68 points. It is my view that the Raiders do not belong in the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to win (and cover) the final game of the regular season.

These teams met back in Week 4 and I had the foresight to get down on Los Angeles, who went on to win 28-14. It was 21-0 at halftime and the Chargers finished with a 380-213 edge in total yards and 25-13 edge in first downs. For this rematch, yes the game is in Vegas, but the Raiders haven’t shown much of a home field advantage at Allegiant Stadium (3-5 SU here this season) and it’s not like the Chargers benefited from any home field edge at So-Fi Stadium (they have the weakest home field advantage in the league).

Assuming that the Colts win earlier in the day (to move to 10-7 SU), then this becomes a “winner take all” game for the final playoff spot. If the Colts somehow lost, which is unlikely as they are facing the Jaguars, then BOTH of these teams could make the playoffs with a tie. I think the idea of playing for a tie in today’s NFL seems absurd. So I’m banking on Justin Herbert, who has previously led his team to victories in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all playoff teams). The Raiders are a very lucky 6-2 SU in one-score games. Their luck runs out here. 10* LA Chargers

analysis soon

9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): The 49ers (9-7 SU) need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs. They could also get in with a Saints loss, but given who the Saints are facing (Falcons), they shouldn’t count on that. The Rams (12-4 SU) need a win here to clinch the NFC West. So both teams are invested in this Week 18 matchup. But the stakes are clearly higher for San Francisco, who has already beaten the Rams once this season, 31-10. I’ll take them plus the points in the rematch. 

I was on the Niners the first time these teams met. It was on MNF and quickly turned into a blowout as it was 14-0 after the first quarter. For the entirety of the second half, the Niners would maintain a two touchdown advantage. That was the game that really turned their season around. SF was only 3-5 SU heading into the game. They’ve won six of eight since. The two losses, both on the road, were by seven points or less. They clearly should have won the game in Tennessee. Believe it or not, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, a metric that I really value. 

Now the big story heading into Week 18 is who will play QB for San Francisco. HC Kyle Shanahan and his team obviously knows, but the Rams do not. I view this as an obvious edge for the underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week due to a right thumb injury, reportedly had a “good week of practice.” So he could be back in the starting lineup. Or it might be rookie Trey Lance, who guided the team to an easy 23-7 win over the Texans last week. Either way, I like the Niners plus the points over a Rams team that’s been a little lucky the last few weeks. 9* San Francisco

8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals (4:25 ET): Seattle (6-10 SU) has nothing to play for here while Arizona (11-5) can still win the NFC West by winning this game and the Rams losing to the 49ers. That’s hardly the unlikeliest of scenarios and it’s tough not to expect the Cardinals to win here, given they easily defeated the Seahawks earlier in the year, 23-13, with Colt McCoy at QB. But given the fact Seattle has a +21 point differential for the season (they are better than their record), I’m not about to lay this many points here. 

The Seahawks put up 51 points in the home finale last week. Granted, that came against the Lions, but it was the third time in the last five weeks that they put up 30 or more points. Four of those five games went Over the total. Expect a much better offensive effort out of Seattle here, compared to the first meeting with Arizona, which was just the second game back for Russell Wilson after finger surgery. The Seattle offense also now has RB Penny, who is coming off a career-best 170 yard day. 

Arizona ended a three-game losing skid with a surprise 25-22 win over Dallas last week. This offense went for over 400 yards the first time it faced the Seattle defense. Again, that was with Colt McCoy under center. The Cardinals will need to continue scoring, given the defense has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Fortunately, they have Kyler Murray, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history with 3,500+ yards passing and 400+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons. I see this game going Over. 8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals

9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs, but it’s going to take plenty of help. The Steelers obviously must win here, then have the Jaguars beat the Colts and hope Chargers-Raiders doesn’t end in a tie. The Ravens’ chances are even more bleak as they need to win and have the Colts, Dolphins and Chargers all lose. I don’t think much of Pittsburgh (-58 point differential), but Baltimore (five straight losses with four coming by two points or less!) is a sinking ship right now. So take the points.  It was announced Friday that Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to a right ankle injury. The Ravens haven’t won since their QB got hurt, although the two games started by Tyler Huntley were both one-point losses. But don’t forget they were dominated at home by the Packers before making things interesting late. Then they were dominated by the Bengals with Jackson and Huntley both out. Last week, with Huntley back, the Ravens blew a 16-7 4Q lead and lost to the Rams 20-19. I just don’t see this team “getting off the mat” after such a slew of close losses. 

Pittsburgh is off an emotional Monday night in what was likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. They beat the Browns 26-14. It was the Steelers that began the Ravens’ downfall with a 20-19 win back on December 5th, the first of two times John Harbaugh infamous went for two and the win, only to fail and lose the game. While the Steelers have been shakier on the road of late, I like that their defense is giving up only 4.7 yards per play the last three weeks while the Ravens’ defense has allowed 7.4 YPP over the same time. The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS L51 tries as an underdog. 9* Pittsburgh

8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (8:15 ET): With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot, and little chance to improve seeding, don’t expect many fireworks here on Saturday night. Certainly, this will be nothing like the first meeting, which was a 41-21 win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Dallas will play its starters, but for how long remains to be seen. Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak and QB Jalen Hurts has an ankle sprain. So they won’t resemble the team that’s won six of seven. 

Even if Hurts does play, I don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, even though the Cowboys are thin at linebacker. Certainly, Philly is going to want to keep it conservative in preparation for next week’s road playoff game (likely against Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay). Philly may lead the league in rushing, but their RB group is very thin right now. My expectation here is that by the second half you’ll have Gardner Minshew at QB with a third-string RB. That could be the dynamic for the entire game, honestly. 

The Dallas’ offense has declined in recent weeks - with one notable exception - the MNF beatdown of Washington. But that was at home. The Cowboys’ points per game average dips dramatically on the road, all the way down to 23.5 from 36.4 at home. Fortunately, their defense is allowing only 19.4 PPG in road games. The Eagles defense, while not exactly facing a slew of great QBs, has held its last five opponents to 14.8 PPG. The key here is that scoring should come to a grinding halt after halftime. 8* Under Cowboys/Eagles

10* Denver (4:35 ET): Last week’s loss to Cincinnati means Kansas City essentially blew its opportunity to gain home field advantage in the playoffs. They still have a chance at being the top seed, mind you, but that would require not just winning here, but also Tennessee losing to Houston on Sunday, which probably isn’t going to happen. Now the Chiefs still do have some motivation on Saturday. A win would guarantee them no lower than the two-seed, meaning the possibility of two home playoff games. But I don’t think that necessarily guarantees they will go out and win by double digits here. Take the points here.

After a 3-0 start to the season, the Broncos are just 4-9 in their L13 games, leaving them at 19-29 SU in HC Vic Fangio’s three seasons here. There’s a lot more questions than answers for this team as it will miss the postseason for a sixth straight year. But Denver does have a great defense, one that is ninth overall in yards allowed, third in scoring, seventh against the pass and 14th against the run. They will be missing a few starters on that side of the ball for this final game, but recall that they were able to limit KC QB Mahomes to just 15 completions - and zero touchdown passes - in the first meeting, which was a very misleading 22-9 loss.

In that loss, the Broncos actually outgained the Chiefs 404-267 and had seven more first downs for the game. But they were limited to just three field goals and turned it over three times, one of which was an interception returned for a TD. That was the 12th straight loss for Denver to KC and while I don’t see that streak ending Saturday, look for the Broncos - thanks to their defense - to keep this one close. I think it’s going to be tough for KC to “get up” for this game after blowing a 28-14 lead at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 475 yards, so there’s hope for Drew Lock and the Denver offense. 10* Denver

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): LSU is going to have a non-scholarship QB taking snaps in this game. That sounds bad. The reason for the situation is because starter Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M, backup Myles Brennan is hurt and freshman Garrett Nussmeier didn’t want to lose his redshirt by playing. In addition to this dire circumstance under center, LSU barely has enough players (reportedly only 44 on scholarship still available) to suit up for this game because of COVID. And they have an interim coaching staff that probably could care less about winning. You’ve absolutely got to fade the Tigers here. 

Meanwhile, Kansas State has no COVID issues and is dealing with zero opt-outs. The Wildcats are getting their starting QB (Skylar Thompson) back from injury and clearly will be the more motivated side in the Texas Bowl Tuesday night. This is a chance for KSU to beat a SEC school and end its season on a positive note. They lost the final two regular season games and were without Thompson in the finale vs. Texas (only lost 22-17). In the last three games that Thompson has finished, the Wildcats averaged 33.3 PPG.

Even when they were at full strength, something they are not close to being tonight, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. It was a 6-6 regular season in Baton Rouge and the only teams the Tigers defeated by more than seven points were: McNeese State, Central Michigan and LA Monroe, all games where they were favored by at least 19.5 points. Tonight is setting up to be a real embarrassment for the LSU program, almost as embarrassing as incoming HC Brian Kelly faking a southern accent in his first public appearance in front of the fanbase. 10* Kansas State

10* Under Browns/Steelers (8:15 ET): After the events of Sunday, the Browns are eliminated from playoff contention. The Steelers basically are as well. So it’s all about “pride” Monday Night. Cleveland has revenge for a 15-10 home loss on Halloween, which dropped their all-time record vs. Ben Roethlisberger to a woeful 3-24-1. This will almost certainly be Big Ben’s final home game in a Steelers uniform and I’m sure his teammates will want to send him off with a win. Given how poorly these offenses have performed much of this season, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

I won with the Under in the Browns’ game last week, which ended up being a 24-22 loss in Green Bay. Embattled QB Baker Mayfield played horribly, tossing four interceptions. As discussed in the analysis for that X-mas Day play, the Browns’ offense had previously been held to 17 points or less in seven of nine games. Excluding defensive TD’s, they’ve topped 22 just twice since Week 3. Luckily, the defense has kept the Browns in many games this season. It has allowed 24 points or less in eight of the last nine games and has allowed 16 points or less in half the games this season. 

It’s not a great Pittsburgh offense anymore. They’ve failed to score a single touchdown in the first half since Week 11. Personally, I don’t think the Steelers are any good; they’ve been outscored by 70 points this year and have been behind by double digits in five of the last six games. They’ve led for about 10 minutes of actual game time in that stretch. In four division games so far, the Steelers’ offense has averaged just 13.8 PPG. But I still trust the defense. The last two home games have seen the Steelers allow just 19 and 13 points. Both of those went Under. So will this one. 10* Under Browns/Steelers

8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): The Packers should destroy the Vikings Sunday Night as the road team will be without QB Kirk Cousins. This is a revenge game for Green Bay, which lost the first meeting in Minnesota, 34-31 on a last second field goal. While they lost, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per play against the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Packers are 7-0 this season and averaging 29.7 PPG. The Vikings’ defensive numbers get much worse on the road. 

While Rodgers figures to lead the Packers’ offense to a big day, you can’t expect much here from the Minnesota offense. The loss of Cousins is huge as he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be Sean Mannion making just his third career start on Sunday night and he won’t have WR Adam Thielen to throw to. It’s expected to be very cold in Lambeau, which will have an adverse effect on a Vikings team that plays its home games indoors. The defense gives up 26.9 PPG on the road. 

Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in primetime games this season and 12-4 ATS in them all-time under HC Matt LaFleur. Overall, they are 11-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 at home. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire of late with a 16-0 TD-INT ratio the last five games. He is 25-12 ATS at home vs. NFC North teams. The Packers are looking to lock down home field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which would be huge for them given their record at Lambeau. I am predicting this will easily be the Vikings’ biggest loss of the season. 8* Green Bay

10* Detroit (4:25 ET): The Lions obviously don’t win many games (they are 2-12-1 straight up), but they do cover regularly. I like them this week plus the points against what is likely to be an unmotivated Seattle side. The Lions’ 10-5 ATS record is third best in the league, only trailing the Packers and Cowboys. Five of their losses this season have come by four points or less, including last week’s (20-16) against Atlanta. Since the bye, they are 6-1 ATS with three of their four SU losses coming by four or less. They tied the Steelers and beat the Vikings and Cardinals during that time. For the season, the Lions are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and they’ve covered four straight times off a loss.

Seattle has only been outscored by a single point this year, but they are 5-10 SU and were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Bears. Again, I have to come back to the issue of motivation as the Seahawks are just the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorites despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. The previous teams in this role all lost the game outright! Over the L11 games, Seattle is only 3-8 SU with two of the wins coming against Jacksonville and Houston. They are 2-5 SU at home this season and with nothing left to play for, them laying points seems a bit dicey. 

QB Jared Goff is doubtful to play here, but his impact is minimal. The return of RB D’Andre Swift is significant though as are the contributions of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just the second rookie to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Russell Wilson has not been himself since returning from injury as he ranks just 22nd in QBR and has now failed to throw for 300 yards in 10 consecutive games, his longest stretch since his rookie year. The Seahawks’ offense is dead last in the league in third down conversion rate (33.7%), a massive problem. Take the points. 10* Detroit

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I know that the 49ers may not have Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but based on how the QB performed last week, that may not be a bad thing. Plus the Niners will be facing the Texans, one of the league’s worst teams. If Garoppolo can’t go (and it’s looking doubtful that he will), then it will be rookie Trey Lance getting the start. Lance is a first round draft pick, so he’s not “chopped liver.” San Francisco SHOULD have beaten Tennessee last week; they led 10-0 at halftime and ended up outgaining the Titans 389-278 (not to mention 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play). 

Houston has won back to back games, but is still just 4-11 SU on the year and has the third worst point differential (-153) in the NFL. Let us not forget that two of the Texans’ four wins came against the Jaguars. Last week’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers was certainly shocking as the offense gained over 400 yards for the first time since Week 1. The Texans also benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. The bottom line is that I still consider them to be one of the very worst teams in this league. 

This will actually be the first time under HC Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco is favored by more than 10 points. The team has generally struggled to cover as home chalk during Shanahan’s tenure, but there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game and likely move on to the playoffs. Houston won’t be able to run the ball in this matchup, not just because they are last in the league in rushing offense, but also due to the fact the SF defense is #2 in the league at stopping the run. Meanwhile, the Niners get their leading rusher (Elijah Mitchell) back from injury this week. Lay the points. 8* San Francisco

10* Over Broncos/Chargers (4:05 ET): This is the second meeting of the season between these long-standing AFC West rivals. Denver won the first, 28-13, as a 2.5-point home dog. I was on the Broncos in that spot, but it was actually a much luckier win that the final score indicates as the Chargers had the edge in total yards. Turnovers hurt LA that day, much like they did last week in a stunning 41-29 loss to Houston. Coming off a bad loss like that, I wouldn’t want to lay points with the Chargers here. But I think it’s a given they will put up more points in this second matchup. Give me the Over. 

The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Over. They’ve averaged 33.8 points in that time, but unfortunately are also allowing 29.5 PPG. So that’s an average of 63.3 total points for the four games. We don’t need nearly that many to get the Over here. QB Herbert will ensure that the offense points up points here. The Chargers are third in the league, averaging 30.3 PPG at home. But the defense remains a liability. It gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game in the league. The Bolts have allowed 140+ rush yards eight times this season and 170+ four times. 

Denver games typically go much differently as they have the highest Under percentage in the league this season and their Under percentage under HC Vic Fangio is highest in the league during that time. Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Broncos, so look for him to lean on the running game. Again, that’s a good thing, given what I outlined above. The Broncos averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first meetings with the Chargers, a game that they finished with 28 points. Both teams should top 21 this time. 10* Over Broncos/Chargers

8* Washington (1:00 ET): This is the Football Team’s second crack at the Eagles in three weeks as they lost 27-17 in Philadelphia (on a Tuesday) back in Week 15. That game had to be moved because of COVID and while that’s still an issue in the Washington locker room, they will have some key players back on Sunday that missed the first meeting. Pro Bowl guard Scherff, safety Curl and top tackler Holcomb are all set to return. Most importantly, the team won’t have to rely on third string QB Garrett Gilbert this time. (Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen reportedly will both take snaps). Despite being so short-handed in that first meeting with the Eagles, Washington was still tied at halftime on the road.

Now, in between games vs. the Eagles, it was obviously a horrible effort last Sunday night from the Football Team as they were lambasted 56-14 by Dallas. That loss is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I don’t expect a lot of people rushing to the window to bet Washington this week. However, it’s important to note that Philadelphia has some serious injury issues at the running back position with Miles Sanders and perhaps Jordan Howard out. That’s a big deal for an offense that leads the league in rushing. 

I know that these are teams trending in different directions, but Washington should be motivated after taking such an embarrassing loss in front of a national TV audience last week. Technically, they are still alive in the playoff race. I see value on them getting this many points. What’s interesting about the Eagles is that they were underdogs in each of their first seven games and have been favored (or a pick ‘em) in the last eight. Before the last three weeks, they’d never been favored by more than four points. 8* Washington

10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss (8:45 ET): After seven straight Unders to end the regular season, I expect Ole Miss to come out “flying” in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Night. The same can be said for Baylor, whose last four games all went Under. This number is shockingly low for two teams that combine to average almost 68.5 points/game. I won’t be the least bit surprised if this one goes Over by the end of the third quarter.

Matt Corral of Ole Miss is one of only four QBs in the country to throw for 20 touchdowns and run for at least 10. In addition to that, the Rebels are the only team in America with at least four 500+ yard rushers. Overall, this offense was incredibly balanced and wound up fourth in the county in total offense, averaging 282.4 YPG passing and 224.2 YPG rushing. The Rebels average 35.9 PPG.

Baylor has a really strong defense, but has not faced an offense as good as Ole Miss all season. Fortunately for the Bears, they should also be able to put plenty of points on the board here. They  average 32.5 PPG overall. Look for the Bears to be able to run the ball very effectively in this game; they average 5.2 yards per carry. They’ll have to, in order to trade points with Corral. 10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss 

10* Ohio State (5:00 ET): So I am fully aware of the opt-outs for the Buckeyes. That coupled with the way their regular season ended (loss to Michigan) have many questioning OSU’s resolve for this Rose Bowl Game vs. Utah. But have we all forgotten that Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country? Power ratings will never determine the College Football Playoff, but it’s still worth mentioning that virtually every set of my power ratings (including my own) would label the Buckeyes as the third best team in the country. With this line coming down so much, we are getting an incredible value on the favorite for this one. My power ratings suggest the number should be close to TWO TOUCHDOWNS! 

Utah comes in as one of the “hottest teams in the country,” but they also hail from the Pac 12, which is probably the weakest of the five power conferences. The two wins over Oregon were impressive, but other than those, it’s a lot of weak opponents that they were able to take advantage of. Ohio State, even minus the opt-outs, is easily the best team the Utes will have faced all season. I also think the notion that Ohio State “doesn’t care” about this game is a bit premature. No Buckeyes team has lost B2B games since 2013. They will be eager to atone for the loss to Michigan. 

Ohio State had the #1 offense in the country this year, averaging 551.4 yards and 45.5 points per game. Not sure how Utah can compete with that. On the field for the Buckeyes on New Year’s Day will still be QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. This offense is still going to put points on the board. This is the shortest spread for any OSU game all season, even lower than when they visited Ann Arbor. Again, I believe it to be the best value of not just the bowls, but the entire College Football season. 10* Ohio State

8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame (1:00 ET): Both of these teams were hoping to make the College Football Playoff, but instead had to “settle” for a first-ever meeting in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame’s only loss this year was to Cincinnati, at home, something that all but ensured the Fighting Irish could not slip past the Bearcats into the top four. Oklahoma State had two losses, both close, one at Iowa State and then the other in the Big 12 Championship Game to Baylor. These teams have combined to go 18-7 ATS, so I’ve got no interest in the side, but I do think we’re getting a low-scoring game here. Take the Under. 

Oklahoma State has the third ranked defense in the country in terms of yards allowed (278.4) and is eighth in scoring (16.8 PPG). They are great both against the run (5th in FBS) and the pass (12th). They do a great job on third down, allowing conversions only 26.1% of the time, which is second best in the country. But perhaps most impressive of all is that the Cowboys are #1 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. Notre Dame does average 35.3 PPG, but their high-scoring games were against mostly bad teams, and they are just middle of the pack in yards gained. Also, RB Kyren Williams won’t be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. So don’t expect the Fighting Irish to score a ton on Saturday. 

Similarly, Oklahoma State only averages 22.8 PPG away from Stillwater. Notre Dame has a pretty stout defense, giving up just 18.3 PPG and over the L10 games, they held seven opponents to 16 points or less. The last four games saw the Irish allow just 23 total points and that includes 14 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. Not only is the Under 6-1 in Oklahoma State’s last seven bowl games, but it is a perfect 8-0 their L8 bowl games as a dog. Notre Dame is 4-0 Under its last four bowl games. 8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame

8* Georgia (7:30 ET): Michigan is what I’d call a “trendy dog” heading into the second CFP semifinal, which will be played at the Orange Bowl down in Miami. I suppose that’s not a shock, given how the Wolverines and Georgia performed in their respective conference championship games. Michigan throttled Iowa 42-3 to win the Big 10 while Georgia suffered its first loss of the year, 41-24 at the hands of Alabama. But the Wolverines don’t have Bryce Young playing QB nor are they as dynamic offensively as the Crimson Tide. Look for UGA to reassert itself defensively here and remind everyone why they were the #1 ranked team in the country for most of this season. 

 Even after the debacle vs. Alabama, the Georgia defense can still say it only allows 9.5 PPG for the season. Prior to the SEC Championship, the most points allowed by the Bulldogs in a game this season was 17 (against Tennessee). Georgia almost never trailed at any point during the regular season. Not to make excuses, but heading into the Alabama game, the Bulldogs knew that they would still make the CFP even with a loss. Conversely, the Crimson Tide HAD to win the game to get in the CFP. The way the game unfolded very much reflected those realities.

Remember that Michigan was a 6.5-point home dog to Ohio State and no one was giving them much of a chance. HC Jim Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for winning that game, but the approach used against the Buckeyes (41 carries for 297 yds rushing) will not work here. The Georgia defense allowed 10 points or less nine times and had three shutouts. They’d allowed just 83 total points in the first 11 games. After upsetting Ohio State, the Wolverines caught a huge break drawing an overrated Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. I’ve still got Georgia ranked as the best team in the country, even after the loss to Bama. 8* Georgia

8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): I thought that the SEC Championship Game was the ultimate “buy low” spot on Nick Saban as Alabama was not just a 6.5-point underdog to Georgia, but was also seemingly being written off by just about everybody. So I hopped on board, taking the points, and the Crimson Tide ended up turning in one of the more impressive performances of the entire College Football season by beating the top-ranked ‘Dawgs 41-24. After a win like that, Bama is pretty popular again and has been installed as double digit favorites for their CFP semifinal vs. Cincinnati. It’s too many points. 

I get that the Crimson Tide looked incredible vs. Georgia while Cincinnati is the first non-Power 5 team to ever make the CFP. But the Bearcats are legit. They are certainly better than the Notre Dame team Alabama faced in LY’s CFP semifinal. That game saw Bama fail to cover, for the record. Cincy absolutely deserves to be here as the lone 12-0 team in the country. They went to South Bend and handled Notre Dame pretty easily. Do I think the Bearcats will win on New Year’s Eve? No. But this is the biggest game in program history and they aren't about to get blown out. Non-P5 teams have been very competitive in NY6 Bowl Games in years’ past. My own power ratings say this should be a single-digit spread. 

Led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young, Alabama does average 42.5 PPG. Not even Georgia’s top-ranked defense could slow them down. But the Crimson Tide did lose WR John Metchie to a knee injury in the SEC Championship, which will hurt. Cincinnati has the second best pass defense in the country and has 18 interceptions. I think they can slow down this Alabama offense, at least by enough to stay within the spread. Then you have the Bearcats’ offense, which averages 39.2 PPG. Let’s not forget that Alabama’s defense has not been great in 2021. It allowed 41 pts in the loss to A&M.  The Tide had four close wins this year, against Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Florida, none of whom are as good as Cincinnati. I’m taking the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Under Tennessee/Purdue (3:00 ET): After ending the regular season with a 5-0 Over run, Tennessee finished in a three-way tie (with Rice & La Tech) for the highest Over percentage in the country this season. As a result, the O/U line for the Music City Bowl has definitely been “on the move,” reaching a high point of 64.0 as of this writing. But this is where I’ve got to step in and go “the other way” as Purdue will be missing its top two receivers on Thursday and their games only averaged 48.0 points this season. 

Without the two top pass catchers - David Bell and Milton Wright - the Boilermakers’ offense won’t come close to resembling how it looked in upset victories over Iowa and Michigan State during the regular season. Consider that even with those two in the lineup, Purdue averaged “only” 27.5 PPG. And it’s not like they can turn to a run game which averaged only 2.78 yards per carry, worst in the entire FBS! It’s a completely one-dimensional Purdue offense and the Tennessee defense is catching a big break here with the top two Boilermakers’ receivers being out. 

Tennessee’s offense also has a prolific passing attack. But they struggle in pass protection, having given up 42 sacks, which was the most among SEC teams. Purdue’s defense is going to be without its ace pass rusher, George Karlaftis, but should still get to Vols QB Hendon Hooker with some regularity. The Boilermakers only allow 20.5 PPG and shut down pretty much everyone with the exception of Ohio State. With the O/U line moving so much, I’m seeing lots of value with the Under here. 10* Under Tennessee/Purdue

10* Oregon (9:15 ET): There was some concern earlier in the week on the Oregon side over players missing practice, but my view is this is too many points for a game where the favorite (Oklahoma) is dealing with numerous question marks itself. The Sooners’ lost HC Lincoln Riley right after a disappointing regular season concluded and Bob Stoops, who has spent the last several seasons as a TV commentator for FOX, will now be coaching the team for one night only. Stoops wearing the headset might be a fun “gimmick” for the talking heads, but I have my doubts as to how OU will play in this game.

Of course, Oregon also lost its HC (Mario Cristobal) right after the regular season as he jumped to Miami. Like Oklahoma, the Ducks’ chosen replacement is a well-known defensive coordinator, but it will be Bryan McClendon coaching here on an interim basis. The bloom seems to be off Oregon right now after two late season losses to Utah, one in the Pac 12 Championship, but I see that as a case of the Utes being a bad matchup. The only other time the Ducks lost this year was an overtime game, when they were short-handed, against Stanford. I love them getting this many points in the bowl. 

Oklahoma’s DC followed Riley to USC. On the field, the Sooners will be missing their top tackler and top three guys in sacks! There’s just no way they should be laying this many points. Don’t forget Oregon went to Ohio State and won earlier in the season and did so without DE Thibodeaux, who will be out here. Look for the Ducks’ offense, which averaged over 31 PPG, to make enough plays here to at least keep them within a generous number Wednesday night. Oklahoma certainly appears to be an overwhelming public favorite and that level of support is simply not justified. 10* Oregon

8* Iowa State (5:45 ET): I think this is one of the better December bowl matchups. We’ve got two teams that started the season ranked in the Top 10. While the perception is that Clemson (now #19) and Iowa State (now unranked) had disappointing years, the reality is that both squads are still in the Top 15 of my own personal power rankings. Iowa State, the preseason favorite to win the Big 12, suffered five losses by a total of 29 points and all four conference losses were decided on the final possession. I think, even without RB Breece Hall, the ‘Clones will be motivated to make it eight wins for the fourth time in Matt Campbell’s six seasons here in Ames. Take the points. 

I can’t say that I’m too confident in Clemson’s motivation here. This is the first time in a while that the Tigers find themselves in a December bowl. After six straight appearances in the College Football Playoffs, they had three regular season losses for the first time since 2014. This in a year where the ACC was really down. While no Clemson players are skipping the Cheez-It Bowl, Dabo Swinney’s coaching staff has taken a hit as he lost both coordinators in the last few weeks. While the Tigers did have a strong finish to the regular season, it was against a very soft schedule.

Without Hall, Iowa State’s offense will be challenged going against a Clemson defense that, statistically, is among the best in the country. But I’m unconvinced that we’ll see the same level of defense from Clemson here in the bowl. The Tigers’ offense ranked just 96th in the FBS this year as QB DJ Uiagalelei really struggled, filling in for Trevor Lawrence. Iowa State’s defense should not be overlooked as it allowed just 309 YPG and ranks 13th against the pass.  It all boils down to motivation and I think ISU is going to use this game to make a statement to the rest of the country. 8* Iowa State

8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota (10:15 ET): With leading rusher Leddie Brown opting out of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, all of a sudden Minnesota becomes a very bad matchup for WVU. The Golden Gophers’ defense ranks fourth nationally in total defense and is ninth against the run. Without Brown, the Mountaineers are going to heavily lean on QB Jarret Doege, but the problem is Doege’s yards per pass attempt (7.4) ranked near the bottom of the Big 12 and WVU generated only 10 plays of 40+ yards all season. With Minnesota allowing just 4.98 yards per play and 18.3 PPG, WVU will struggle to score Tuesday night.

For the Golden Gophers, the running back position was hit hard by injuries, which led to some early growing pains. Still, look for HC PJ Fleck to look to establish the run in this game as Minnesota led the Big 10 in rushing attempts during the regular season. Whether or not that can be an effective strategy remains to be seen, however. West Virginia allows only 129.6 rush yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and 24.3 PPG. Even if Minnesota is able to find some success moving the football, they’ll encounter resistance in the red zone where the Mountaineers’ defense ranks 11th nationally in efficiency.

So this should be the rare low-scoring bowl game and I’m taking the Under. For what it’s worth, the total alternated over West Virginia’s last eight regular season games and the last one - a 34-28 win over Kansas that got them bowl eligible - went Over. So if that pattern holds, this game is staying Under. There were five games this year where WVU failed to top 20 points and that was with Brown in the lineup. Only two of Minnesota’s last 10 opponents were able to exceed 16 points. The Under is 12-3 in WVU’s L15 games as a dog while Minnesota has gone Under six straight times in the month of December. 8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota

8* Mississippi State (6:45 ET): The Liberty Bowl is a very interesting matchup as you have Mississippi State, coached by Mike Leach, taking on Texas Tech. Of course, once upon a time, Leach was the coach at Texas Tech (from 2000-09). In the build up for this game, Leach was quoted as saying, “They still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games. Maybe they’ll deliver the check.” So there’s still plenty of bad blood here. I think that MSU is going to want to win this game for their coach and they will win big. 

This is a bad matchup for the Texas Tech defense, which ranks 112th in the country against the pass. Opposing QBs completed 66.8% of their pass attempts against the Red Raider this season. It just so happens that no QB in the country had a higher completion percentage than Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who is at 75.1%. Rogers threw for at least 294 yards in every game and finished with a SEC-leading 4,449 yards and a 35-8 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs average 30.9 PPG on offense. 

Texas Tech also averages 30.0 PPG, but you’ve got to wonder about their motivation for this game. They’re being led by an interim HC (Joey McGuire), who has already accepted a coaching job elsewhere (La Tech). The Red Raiders did not have a strong finish to the regular season, losing four of their last five games. That’s quite different from Mississippi State, who ended on a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run. The Bulldogs are better than their record as three of their five losses came by three points or less. 8* Mississippi State

10* Denver (4:25 ET): Point differential. That’s what this play essentially boils down to for me. Both teams are 7-7. But the Broncos have a +42 YTD point differential. The Raiders are -77. That’s quite the difference. When a team is .500, you’d expect their number of points scored and allowed to be pretty close to even. Yet that’s not the case with either of these teams. Denver should have a better record. Las Vegas should have a much worse record.  I’m taking the better team. 

The Broncos also have revenge here for a 34-24 loss in Week 6. Total yardage was basically even in that game (424-421), but Denver was -4 in turnovers. 

If you’re a long-term follower of mine, then you know I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a strong indicator of future outcomes, not just in NFL but for all sports. Looking at the Raiders’ point differential, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose all of their remaining games. They could barely beat a COVID-ravaged Cleveland team last Monday. In six of the last seven games, this Raiders’ offense has scored 16 points or less. I just don’t think Las Vegas is a very good football team! 10* Denver

8* Over Jaguars/Jets (1:00 ET): I also like the Over in this game. Again, the Jaguars should score a season-high in points. There have been only two games since their bye, which was in Week 6, where the Jets didn’t allow at least 30 points. I know I talked about the Jets being short-handed when it comes to pass catchers, but considering that last week marked the seventh time this season that the Jaguars’ defense surrendered 30 or more points, the home team should have its own opportunities to score. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in football, expect little defense to be played and a surprising shootout to ensue. The Over is 4-0 in the previous meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Jets

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): The Jaguars were actually a popular choice last week. They’d just fired the embarrassing Urban Meyer and were facing Houston. Unfortunately, it was “same old Jags” as they lost for a second time this season to the Texans, 30-16 as six-point chalk. I was one of those that made the mistake of taking Jacksonville in that spot. Call me stubborn, but I think *this* is now the week this struggling side “gets off the mat.” They are facing a Jets team that’s missing a lot of key personnel, including its head coach. 

The Jets have been just as miserable as the Jaguars this season. New York has one more win than Jacksonville, but also has a slightly worse YTD point differential. Last week saw the Jets suffer their third straight defeat, 31-24 at Miami. They’ve now been outscored by 178 points. The Jags have been outscored by 174. Those are the two worst point differentials in the sport. But the key is the Jets being without HC Robert Saleh as well as their three top receivers, a tight end and two guards. 

If the Jags, after a coaching change, can’t be the short-handed Jets, then I don’t know what to say. The Jets’ defense is the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin. It allows 30.6 points per game. So look for Jacksonville’s offense to score a season-high in points today. They have not scored more than 23 in any game all year. If they fail to score 24 against the Jets, they would be the first team since the 2010 Panthers to not score 24 points in their first 15 games of the season. The time is now for Jacksonville! 8* Jacksonville

8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams are now in first place in the NFC West following last night’s loss by Arizona. In order to stay there, they must defeat Minnesota here. Given what the Rams have done each of the last two weeks, it would be foolish to bet against them. Two weeks ago, despite being severely short-handed because of COVID, they were able to go on the road and beat the Cardinals 30-23 in front of a national TV audience. Then came Tuesday’s 20-10 win over Seattle. Lay the points here. 

An outbreak that once included 29 players is now down to four for the Rams and none of those four that remain on the COVID list are starters. Look for the Rams offense to have a big passing day here against a Vikings defense that is allowing 252.1 yards per game through the air. Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp now has 10 straight games with at least 90 yards receiving. Sean McVay’s defense turned in a fine effort Tuesday night, holding Seattle to not just 10 points, but only 214 total yards. 

Minnesota is also on a short week here. They won 17-9 in Chicago on Monday, but it was not a good performance as the offense gained less than 200 yards and went 5 of 17 on third down. They were outgained by the Bears 370-193. The Vikings were quite lucky to recover three fumbles in the game. WR Adam Thielen will be back this week, but RB Dalvin Cook has been ruled out and that is potentially more significant.  8* LA Rams

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday in New England. The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills, a famously windy affair where QB Mac Jones attempted only three passes. That win is the difference in the standings right now as New England enters this game at 9-5 while Buffalo is 8-6. But Mother Nature is not expected to play such a key role in today’s rematch and I think the better team (Buffalo) will rise to the top.

The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS as an underdog with Josh Allen as the QB. They are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs. In the first meeting, Buffalo was the team more adversely affected by the windy conditions as it severely limited what they could do in the passing game. Red zone inefficiency also played a role in the 14-10 loss. Late in the game, the Bills missed a field goal and turned it over on downs. Expect Allen to be a lot more effective this time around, even without receiver Cole Beasley (who is on the COVID-19 list). The Bills have averaged 29 points in the two games since losing to New England. 

Remember that the Patriots lost last week, 27-17 at Indianapolis. They were actually underdogs. The loss snapped a seven-game SU/ATS win streak. With Tennessee’s win on Thursday, the Pats have fallen into third place in the AFC playoff picture. This is an important game for them too, obviously. But the offense hasn’t been putting up big numbers and the defense won’t be able to slow down the Bills for a second time. 8* Buffalo

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Cardinals badly need to win this game. Not just because they’ve lost two straight and four of their last seven. The losing streak has resulted in them falling into a tie with Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West. Earlier in the year, when they were 7-0, the Cards had to figure they were a shoo-in for the top seed in the NFC. But now they are looking at possibly falling into a Wild Card spot as last week saw the “unthinkable” happen - a 30-12 loss in Detroit, a game that Arizona was favored to win by 13 points. 

The Cardinals’ opponents this week, Indianapolis, are trending in a much different direction. The Colts have won five of six, including a very impressive showing last Saturday (at home) vs. New England. But despite winning 27-17, QB Carson Wentz was abysmal against the Patriots, completing only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards. The Colts were outgained in that game, not just on a per play basis, but also 365-275 overall. Interestingly enough, they are 0-5 ATS coming off a game where they had less than 150 passing yards. 

On Thursday night, we all saw how one team (Tennessee) that was seemingly trending in the wrong direction beat a hot team (San Francisco). I believe the same will hold true here. The Cardinals are still higher than the Colts in my power ratings. Factoring that in plus the home field, they should be a larger favorite in this spot. Obviously, they’re going to be motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, Indy is off arguably its best win of the season and thus could be in store for a letdown. This is the first time Arizona has been off B2B losses this year. Indy is 3-9 ATS the L12 times it has been off B2B wins. 10* Arizona

8* Under Browns/Packers (4:30 ET): The Browns have activated several key contributors from the COVID-19 list, among them QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. They will also have HC Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines after he too missed last Saturday’s 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. But pinning that lackluster offensive effort on all of the absences might be “wishful thinking” in Cleveland; this is a team that has been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of its last nine games. One of the two times it wasn’t was thanks to a defensive TD. The presumed return of Mayfield and company won’t necessarily lead to an abundance of scoring from the Browns here. 

Now Green Bay doesn’t have much difficulty scoring, thanks to Aaron Rodgers. While the Browns’ postseason hopes just took a massive hit with that loss to the Raiders, the Packers are already assured of a spot in the postseason and have wrapped up the NFC North. They come into Saturday at 11-3 SU having just held on to beat the Ravens last week, 31-30, when Baltimore failed to convert a two-point try.

That was the fourth straight game to go Over for the Packers and they’ve averaged 35.7 PPG themselves during that stretch. I’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, I’ve got no worries about the Packers’ defense keeping the Cleveland offense in check here. I’ve already documented the Browns’ season-long offensive struggles. It’s more than half their games that they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. Well, Green Bay’s defense only allows 17.0 PPG at Lambeau. So there’s that. But Cleveland’s defense has allowed 16 points or less in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. 8* Under Browns/Packers

10* Over Ball State/Georgia State (2:30 ET): In last year’s bowl appearance, Ball State provided me with the biggest win of the College Football season. The Cardinals were my 10* Game of the Year going up against undefeated San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl. I remember it like it was yesterday. As a nine-point underdog, BSU raced out to a 27-0 first quarter lead and never looked back in a 34-13 outright victory! While I’m not taking the Cardinals plus the points this time, hopefully this Over play wins just as easily! 

Now asking Ball State to go Over the total this season hasn’t been easy. Only three of their 12 games have ended up that way. But this is a bowl game - on Christmas Day no less - and defense may certainly be “optional,” not just for the Cardinals, but for both teams. I know that the last three bowl games all stayed Under. But the Over was 9-2 in the first 11 bowls. Then there’s the matter of this being the second lowest O/U line for any BSU game all season. The previous low was 47.5 for a game with Army. 

It’s interesting to note that while the Under may be 9-3 in all BSU games this season, eight of those would have gone OVER this total. Similarly, Georgia State games averaged 54.0 points this season and at least half would have exceeded this number. There were five games this season, four of them losses, where the Panthers allowed 34 or more points. But their offense also seemed to “peak” down the stretch, averaging 35.7 points over the last three games, a stretch which included a 42-40 upset of Coastal Carolina. 10* Over Ball State/Georgia State

10* Over 49ers/Titans (8:20 ET): San Francisco is surging and despite still only being third in their own division, they are very much in play for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Niners have won five of their last six games and last week’s 31-13 dismantling of the lowly Falcons marked the fourth time in that stretch where they scored 30 or more points. The other two games saw them score 26 and 23. Over the L8 weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has posted the league’s 2nd best passer rating (trailing only Aaron Rodgers!) and the running game has averaged 142.4 YPG since Week 11. So expect the Niners to put up points tonight. 

Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but its once strong grip is loosening as they’ve lost three of their last four games. The division lead (over the Colts) is now down to just one game after blowing a 10-point lead last week and losing 19-13 to the Steelers. That marked the third time in the last four games that the Titans could only put 13 points on the board. But surprisingly the offense has still been able to run the ball without Derrick Henry as they’ve gone for 200+ yards on the ground in two of the last three games. QB Tannehill may be getting some help in the passing game as WR AJ Brown could return tonight. It’s been reported that Brown is “likely” to play. 

Though it’s been mostly Unders produced by these two teams in recent weeks, look for this one to go Over. The number is just too low. The Niners, who have probably the more “reliable” offense of the two teams right now, are 4-0 Over this season when the total is below 45. Brown’s return would be big for Tennessee, but even without him they should put up enough points here (for the game to go Over) as it’s been turnovers more than anything else that have limited their scoring the last few weeks. The Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games as a home dog. 10* Over 49ers/Titans

10* Florida (7:00 ET): Call it a “hunch,” but the Gasparilla Bowl is probably NOT where either of these two once proud Floridian schools wanted to end their season. UCF, which went 35-4 SU from 2017-19 including a perfect 13-0 in ‘17, has now lost four games in each of the last two seasons. Losing QB Dillon Gabriel to a season-ending injury was the key “blow” this season, although it should be mentioned that the Golden Knights were 6-2 down the stretch without Gabriel. But the majority of those wins were racked up against the dregs of the AAC. Outside of Cincinnati, who blew UCF out 56-21, Florida will be the toughest opponent of the season. 

At 6-6, the Gators were probably one of the more disappointing teams in the country. It was only a year ago that they ranked sixth in the country under Dan Mullen. Mullen has been fired and the program will be “starting over” under Billy Napier, who was wooed away from Louisiana. Coaching the bowl game for Florida will be a mix of Mullen’s staff. I acknowledge not having QB Richardson and DE Carter hurts the Gators, but my power rankings still call this a Top 30 team in the country and they are simply way more talented than UCF is. 

I think it’s safe to say that a six-game ATS losing streak (for Florida) is what’s keeping this line so short. But again, UCF hasn’t beaten anyone of note since Boise State in the season opener. I think the fact that this is an “in-state rivalry game” will motivate the favorite as the players don’t want to head into a new regime having lost to a lesser Sunshine State school. QB Jones is going to enter the transfer portal. While he may not care about the future of football in Gainesville, he’s going to want to look good for whomever his next team will be. At the end of the day, the Gators are simply the much better team here and they are 6-2 ATS L8 as a bowl favorite. Thus, I’ll lay the points. 10* Florida

8* Missouri (8:00 ET): Well, there certainly seems like a lot of reasons to discount Missouri in this game. The Tigers aren’t very good at stopping the run (usually a problem when facing Army), their own starting running back (SEC’s leading rusher) is out and they’ll be breaking in a new starting QB. But, this is still a SEC team that has had ample time to prepare for what they’ll face on Wednesday night. As for Army, the disappointment of losing to Navy probably “soured” them on this game a bit. Take the points. 

If you look at who Army beat this year, it’s not exactly a “who’s who” of College Football. Liberty, UMass, Bucknell, Air Force, Miami OH, UConn, Western Kentucky and Georgia State were the victims. That list includes a FCS team and the two worst FBS teams. The Black Knights couldn’t run the ball vs. Navy, which was a surprise. I know that Navy runs the same offense, so they are uniquely suited to stop the triple option. But also think of the time Missouri has had to prepare to defend it. That’s key. 

Brady Cook will get his first career start tonight for the Tigers. Having just played 11 days ago, it’s going to be tough for Army to prepare for a new starting QB that they’ve never seen before. That brings me to my next point - Missouri has had far more time off to prepare for this game. They last took the field on Nov 26. They figure to come out a lot fresher in this Armed Forces Bowl and I think a hot start will - at the very least - result in an ATS win. With the line moving as much as it has, we’re getting good value on the dog. 8* Missouri

8* Under UTSA/San Diego State (7:30 ET): The Frisco Bowl is our best postseason matchup yet as we’ve got two Top 25 teams facing off Tuesday night. The pointspread has been on the move as UTSA’s star running back (Sincere McCormick) won’t play here as he prepares for the NFL Draft. The Roadrunners are also going to be without a couple of key players on defense. Were they at “full strength,” there’s little doubt I’d be siding with UTSA in this one as they look for the first bowl win in program history, following a 12-1 SU regular season and C-USA Championship. But I think the offense may struggle here.

San Diego State did not have a good showing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, losing to Utah State 46-13 as 6.5-point favorites. The Aztecs played that game short-handed as multiple players were out because of COVID. You’re now likely to see a better representation of the team that was 11-1 SU prior to losing to Utah State 17 days ago. The number of points SDSU allowed in the MWC Championship Game were the most ever under HC Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are #2 in the country at stopping the run and figure to slow down a UTSA offense that will be without its best offensive player. 

In fact, I’ll argue that San Diego State has the best defense that UTSA will have faced all season. Though the Roadrunners did explode for 49 points in the C-USA Championship Game, that was against a Western Kentucky team that doesn’t play much defense. They’d been held to just 28 PPG in the three games previous to that and that was with McCormick in the lineup. I’m not too worried about a SDSU offense that hasn’t scored more than 28 points since early October. In fact, the Aztecs averaged only 20.8 PPG over the last eight contests. I know that these bowl games have been high-scoring thus far, but not this one. 8* Under UTSA/San Diego State

8* LA Rams (7:00 ET): Coming off their biggest win of the season - last Monday’s 30-23 triumph at Arizona - the Rams were thrown into disarray with 25 players having to be put into COVID-19 protocol as of Thursday. That resulted in this game with the Seahawks being pushed back until Tuesday. While it may seem risky to still lay points with Los Angeles in this spot, they’ll still have QB Matthew Stafford on the field tonight and I simply feel they are still much better than the 5-8 Seahawks, whom they defeated 26-17 back in Week 5 on a Thursday night. I took the Rams then and will play them again in the rematch. 

Russell Wilson’s return to the Seattle lineup has resulted in B2B wins, 30-23 over San Francisco and 33-13 over Houston. But this is not a good Seahawks team. They rank dead last in the league in yards per game allowed, making it almost improbable that they somehow have allowed the fifth fewest points. The offense is 28th in the league in yards gained and Wilson may not have WR Tyler Lockett (COVID) available to throw to. While Seattle has put up 30+ points in B2B games, let’s not forget how pathetic the offense had looked (even with Wilson back) in the three prior games. 

The Rams’ offense is first in the league in yards per play (6.2), fourth in scoring (28.2 PPG) and has scored 28 or more in six of the last eight games. Other than TE Higbee, it looks like HC Sean McVay will have his full complement of players on that side of the ball. Remember the Rams were short-handed when they went into Arizona and won last week. I consider them one of the top teams in the league and they’ve covered 23 of the last 35 conference games. 8* LA Rams

10* Kent State (3:30 ET): After a 1-3 SU start to the season (all three losses to P5 teams), Kent State was able to “dust itself off” and win the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. They were favored in the Conference Championship Game over Northern Illinois (by 3.5) but were outclassed in that contest, almost from the start, and ended up losing 41-23. Thus the Golden Flashes’ landing spot for the bowls is in Boise, ID for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, an annual battle between the MAC and Mountain West. With just one bowl win in program history (2019), it’s not like Kent State won’t be motivated here. 

Wyoming’s season got off to a great start as they were 4-0 heading into October with a win over MAC Champion Northern Illinois. But the Cowboys really sputtered down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games (though they did defeat eventual MWC Champ Utah State). It should be noted that the Pokes were favored only twice over those last eight games, both times by double digits, and on each occasion they lost outright. One of those losses was to lowly New Mexico. (The other was the regular season finale vs. Hawaii). Overall, Wyoming was just 1-4-1 ATS as chalk during the regular season. They barely beat Montana State (FCS) and UConn, winning those games by a FG or less. 

People may point to the fact Wyoming is 2-0 vs. the MAC in 2021 and also defeated its own conference champ in the regular season. But Kent State plus the points seems like the right call here. Should be noted that the Golden Flashes also beat Northern Illinois in the regular season. The rematch in the MAC Championship was their lowest scoring effort in conference play all season. This team comes in averaging 32.6 PPG (compared to just 23.2 for Wyoming). With offense being the key in these early bowl games, I see the underdog having the edge here. They are 8-2 ATS their L10 games off an ATS loss. 10* Kent State

10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but a COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns organization pushed it back 48 hours. There are obviously some key players missing for Cleveland, not to mention HC Kevin Stefanski, but I still see them beating Las Vegas at home. Both these teams are desperate for a win to remain relevant in the AFC playoff hunt, but I’ve got little faith in a Raiders team that has been outscored by 77 points this year, the 4th worst differential in the conference. Lay the points. 

Las Vegas is coming off an ugly 48-9 loss to Kansas City, which was the second time in four weeks they got blown out by the Chiefs. Those two losses obviously had a major impact on the aforementioned point differential, but the Silver and Black have also dropped five of their last six overall. The only win came on Thanksgiving Day, in overtime, against the Cowboys. That win was the only time in the last six games that the offense was able to score more than 16 points. In more than half their games this season, the Raiders have been held to 16 or less. 

Third stringer Nick Mullens is likely to be the Browns’ starting QB in this one. From 2018-20, Mullens made 16 starts for the 49ers, so he’s not “new to this.” I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is going to need to put up many points here. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in over half of its games this season and held the Ravens out of the end zone for three quarters last week. I already mentioned the Raiders’ offensive woes. Obviously, all the absences must be accounted for, but with the game being pushed back hopefully some of those Browns players that tested positive can return. I’m not a huge Baker Mayfield fan to begin with, so I don’t think he’ll be all that missed. 10* Cleveland

8* Tulsa (2:30 ET): Monday in Myrtle Beach is hardly the most “ideal” bowl destination, but both Tulsa and Old Dominion WANT to be here and not just because of the weather. Both teams finished the regular season strong; Tulsa with a three-game win streak and ODU with a five-game SU and ATS win streak. Those respective win streaks got both teams to 6-6 on the year, so making a bowl was clearly important to them. But while the finishes to the regular season may have been similar, I see a significant gap in talent between the two sides and will be laying the points with Tulsa. 

Now underdogs (and Overs) have clearly been the way to go so far in these early bowl matchups. But expect this one to be different, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned. Tulsa has outscored their opponents 98-54 during the three-game win streak. Four of their six losses this year came to Top 25 teams, including Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter of which they led (on the road!) in the 4Q. While it was somewhat of a disappointing regular season for the Golden Hurricane, after rallying to beat SMU 34-31 in the regular season finale, there’s no better way to cap things than with the program’s 1st bowl win since 2016. 

I do have to give credit to ODU for how they finished the regular season. But at one time, this was a 1-6 SU football team that looked to be going “nowhere fast.” Their five-game win streak saw them beat La Tech, FIU, Fla Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. Of that quintet of opponents, only one made a bowl (Middle Tennessee) and they were also a 6-6 team in the regular season. The Monarchs have no other wins over bowl eligible teams this season. Their run defense put up good numbers, but will struggle to stop Tulsa RB Shamari Brooks, who has more than 3600 rush yards in his career. 8* Tulsa

8* Under Saints/Bucs (8:20 ET): New Orleans has won six straight regular season meetings over Tampa Bay. But the Saints would gladly trade those six wins in exchange for the last time they lost to the Bucs, which was the Divisional Round of last year’s Playoffs. I had the Saints as a home dog when they upset TB back in Week 8, 36-27 as 3.5 point dogs. But this time it’s a lot harder to like them, not just because the Saints are playing in Tampa (where the Bucs are a perfect 6-0), but because of their own 1-5 slide. 

Now New Orleans did end a five-game losing streak last week, beating the lowly Jets 30-9. But don’t expect them to score that many points again. The Jets are the worst defensive team in the league. It’s a big jump up in class facing a Buccaneers’ defense, which allows only 18.5 PPG at home. A big difference between now and Week 8 is the Saints’ QB situation. They still had Jameis Winston as the starter on Halloween. Now it’s Taysom Hill. The Saints were able to run for 200+ yards last week, but won’t do that here against a Bucs’ defense that is third in the league against the run. 

Tom Brady and company have been a scoring machine at home this year, averaging 37.5 PPG. The team has scored 30 or more in four straight games overall, but needed OT to hit that mark last week vs. Buffalo. The Bucs’ defense looked great for three quarters in shutting Josh Allen in the Bills down. I’ll look past what happened in the fourth quarter as they are facing a much weaker offense this week. But expect the Bucs to struggle to score in this one. The Saints’ defense is very good (only 21.9 PPG allowed). None of New Orleans’ last three games have seen more than 44 total pts scored. 8* Under Saints/Bucs

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): It is looking like a near certainty that Tyler Huntley will be the starting QB here for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in last week’s 24-22 loss to the Browns and hasn’t practiced all week. While the loss of Jackson may make Baltimore a “less attractive option” in the minds of many bettors, I am seeing value here on the Ravens as a home dog. Huntley very nearly led his team back from a 24-6 halftime deficit last week. He also guided a 16-13 win at Chicago earlier in the season. Take the points!

Now Green Bay is the top ATS team in the league. They’ve covered 11 of 13 games this year, including a come from behind effort last week against Chicago. Things were not looking good for Packers’ bettors early on last Sunday night as the team trailed at halftime. But they stormed back to win 45-30 and improbably cover the double digit spread. That was at Lambeau though. All three Packers’ losses this season have come on the road - where their scoring average dips to 20.6 PPG. 

Now GB’s road numbers are a little skewed due to a Week 1 loss to the Saints (an outlier performance) and the game they played at Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers. That being said, this is too many points for them to be laying here. This line is a classic overreaction to Jackson’s absence. Jackson is a great player, but the Ravens also have a great defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS his L12 games as a home underdog with eight outright wins. Baltimore is also 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season. Almost all of their games end up close with five of the last six decided by six points or less. Only two teams in history have ever started a NFL season 12-2 ATS. 10* Baltimore

9* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer’s firing had an interesting effect on this number as the Jaguars are now bigger favorites to beat the Texans without their disgraced former head coach. My view is that the Jags are going to come out highly motivated to win this game. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were under Meyer, whose NFL coaching career will end with a 2-11 WL record. For this first game without Meyer, the Jags probably couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent. I’m laying the points! 

There are two teams that I have rated lower than Jacksonville in my own personal power ratings. One of them is the opponent here (the other is the Jets). Houston has a worse point differential than Jacksonville and the same 2-11 SU record. David Culley just feels like a lame-duck coach this season for the Texans, who are down to Davis Mills at QB. The team is 0-7 SU with Mills as the starter after losing 33-13 last week at home to Seattle. The Texans actually struck first in that game and then were thoroughly dominated after that. 

This is a revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-21 in Houston back in Week 1. It was their seventh straight loss to the Texans, which is quite embarrassing. It’s interesting to note that the Jaguars were favored in the Week 1 matchup. While that proved to be a “bad line,” it looks like we’re getting a bargain on them at home here. Houston has won just once since Week 1. You’ve got to believe the Jaguars’ players will want to win for interim HC Darrell Bevell to prove a point that they are better without Meyer. From the revenge angle to the new coach, lots of motivation here for the home side. 9* Jacksonville

10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): Two of the hottest teams in football meet Saturday night and both are coming off byes. I don’t think there’s any denying that the Colts are better than their 7-6 SU overall record. The team ranks seventh in the league in point differential, having outscored the opposition by 88 points. Now I am well aware that New England is not only #1 in the league in that department (+150 point differential), but is also on a 7-0 SU/ATS win streak. But the Colts have been a favorite of “sharp bettors” all season and this is a case where it’s right to fade what is likely to be a very “public dog” (that being the Patriots). 

Remember that Indianapolis started the year at 0-3 SU. Since then, they’ve gone 7-3 with two of the losses coming in overtime (both after blowing big leads) and the other coming by only seven points to the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Still fresh in everyone’s mind is New England’s win at Buffalo two weeks ago where QB Mac Jones only attempted three passes due to insanely windy conditions. But don’t forget that the Colts went to Buffalo a few weeks ago and absolutely trounced the Bills, 41-15 (as a seven-point underdog). 

As good as the Patriots have looked over the last two months, you’ve got to figure they are “due” to drop at least one game down the stretch. Looking at the remaining four games, this and next week’s home date with Buffalo are easily the two toughest matchups Bill Belichick’s team has left. New England is 6-0 SU on the road this year, but three of those wins came by four points or less. This game means A LOT more to the Colts, who trail the Titans by two games in the AFC South and really cannot afford another loss. The last time we saw them, they beat the Texans 31-0 and allowed only 141 total yards. The Texans are admittedly a horrible team, but a Colts offense (led by RB Taylor) that has struck for 30 or more points in seven of the last eight games will test this Patriots’ defense. 10* Indianapolis

8* UAB (3:30 ET): I think a lot of people may get caught up in the fact that BYU is ranked #13 in the country. But that ranking is a little generous to say the least. In all due respect to the contingent from Provo, I don’t consider the Cougars to be among the top 40 teams in the country! The SP+ rankings agree with me and also actually have BYU’s Independence Day Bowl opponent, UAB, rated higher! I’m not quite as high on the Blazers, who were champions of C-USA last season, but I do believe they are a live dog and capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points.

UAB is no stranger to bowl games as this will be their fourth consecutive season in one. Remember that the football program did not exist the two years prior! Looking at this past regular season, the Blazers very nearly defeated UTSA (who was undefeated at the time) and finished 8-4 SU overall. One of the losses was to Georgia. Their defense is really strong, giving up only 22.4 PPG.and it allowed 14 points or less on five different occasions. It’s hard to run on UAB as they give up only 104 rush yards per game. 

Much will be made of the fact that BYU went 5-0 SU against the Pac 12 during the regular season, including a 26-17 win over Rose Bowl participant Utah (early in the year). But two of those five wins were by four points or less. The Cougars were a little lucky in 2021 to go 4-0 SU in one-score games. UAB has a great running back in DeWayne McBride, but look for the defense is going to keep them in this one. The Blazers have covered four straight and six of their last seven games. 8* UAB

10* Fresno State (2:15 ET): I know that there won’t be a lack of motivation with UTEP, who is making its first bowl appearance since 2014. The Miners have been quite the story here in 2021, going 7-5, just their second winning season since 2005! They won only five games total in Dana Dimel’s first three seasons here and were 0-12 the year before his arrival. But of the 80 teams playing in bowls this year, UTEP is my lowest rated. Not only are they 0-5 SU/ATS L5 bowl appearances, but they went 1-4 SU/ATS vs. bowl teams this season with three of those losses coming by 17 points or more. I just don’t “see it” with this team. 

Now Fresno State does have some issues heading into the New Mexico Bowl, which is probably why the Bulldogs aren’t as large of a favorite here as my power ratings say they ought to be. After not making the Mountain West Conference Championship, they saw HC Kalen DeBoer bolt for the Washington job. Initially, it looked as if QB Jake Haener was going to follow DeBoer, but Haener changed his mind and withdrew from the transfer portal. But he may not get the start Saturday. Interim HC Lee Marks (who was the RB coach under DeBoer) has been “mum” on who the starting QB will be here.

I think the uncertainty over who will start at QB for Fresno State will end up benefiting the Bulldogs. They obviously know who the starter is. But UTEP is “in the dark.” FSU defeated its final two regular season opponents by a combined score of 74-16. They have wins over San Diego State and UCLA and only lost by seven at Oregon. While we aren’t sure what (or who) we’re getting at QB, we do know the Bulldogs’ run defense gives up just 127 yards per game and that the offensive line is very good. UTEP’s offense relies heavily on “the big play” and I don’t see them making enough of those here. 10* Fresno State

10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): A win tonight would give the Chargers a season sweep of the Chiefs and thus a “leg up” in the race for the division title. A Chargers win would also mean both teams are 9-5 SU. So you can see how important this one is. Either LA falls two games back with a split of the season series, or they are even with a season sweep. I know that the Chiefs - 6-0 SU L6 games and 4-0 ATS L4 - have been playing well of late. But so have the Chargers, who have scored 37 or more points in three of the last four games. 

Those offensive numbers will certainly be tested tonight by a Chiefs defense that has allowed exactly nine points in three consecutive games. But KC has not exactly been facing the top offensive teams during this stretch. Twice they’ve beaten the Raiders and other wins came against the Broncos, Giants and Rodgers-less Packers. Holding Dallas to just nine points WAS impressive. But I can’t see a similar defensive effort taking place against these Chargers, which has Justin Herbert and two receivers that will go over 1,000 yards this season. 

The Chiefs are surprisingly still being outgained this season on a per play basis. While it was back in Week 3 and Kansas City turned it over four times, the Chargers scored 30 in the first meeting and that was when they weren’t playing as well. The Chargers’ last three wins have been by an average of 13 PPG, but even that’s misleading as they led by as many as 17, 24 and 30 in those respective games. LA is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog. 10* LA Chargers

9* Chicago (8:20 ET): Going total contrarian on this one as Green Bay is the first double digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. It’s somewhat rare to see a DD fave in these primetime matchups, at least on SNF where it’s happened only eight times the previous decade. Those eight favorites went just 2-6 ATS. As bad as the Bears have looked this season, I can’t help but think this is an inflated number. At least Justin Fields is back at QB. Yes, I’m taking the points here. There’s always a sense of “pride” in these division games and I don’t see Chicago just “rolling over” in this one. 

Aaron Rodgers was not afraid to make his feelings known in the last meeting between these teams. “I own you” is what Rodgers told the Soldier Field faithful following a 24-14 win back in Week 6. First off, note that win was “only” by 10 points (less than the spread here). Secondly, might Rodgers’ comments come back to bite him? You’ve got to think the Bears will at least be motivated after being disrespected like that. Total yardage and first downs were actually pretty close in Chicago back October 17th. 

The Bears have just one win since losing to the Packers two months ago, but last week they actually outgained Arizona only to be undone by four turnovers. They also finished with a 26-14 edge in first downs! Fields definitely has a higher ceiling than “turnover machine” Andy Dalton. The Packers may be 10-2 ATS overall (including 5-0 at Lambeau), but they are due to drop a game at the betting window. 9* Chicago

8* NY Giants (4:05 ET): A change in playcallers has failed to provide any kind of spark for the struggling Giants’ offense - at least so far. Freddie Kitchens replaced Jason Garrett as the new OC two weeks ago, but the G-Men have scored a grand total of 22 points (including just one TD) since the change. They were held to season lows in points, total yards and time of possession last week against Miami. It doesn’t help that Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. But I think New York may surprise you this week, even with backup Mike Glennon at QB. This team has typically been reliable in the role of underdog. Take the points.

The Chargers are off an impressive 41-22 win at Cincinnati, but they strike me as the kind of team that should never be laying this many points. Note that they nearly blew all of a 24-0 lead last week before pulling away late. Prior to that, the team had covered just one of five games with the two SU wins coming by three and four points. QB Justin Herbert will be without his top receiver this week as Keenan Allen has landed on the COVID-19 list. Coming off the surprisingly big win over the Bengals and with a huge division showdown vs. the Chiefs on deck, this is a tricky spot for Los Angeles. 

The Giants, as alluded to above, have done well in the past as a road underdog. They are 9-4 ATS in that role under HC Joe Judge and 19-7 ATS L26 going back further than that. The Chargers aren’t just 1-4 ATS L5 as favorites; they’ve never been more than a 6.5-point favorite in any game this season. They’ve got the worst homefield advantage in the league and are 5-13-1 ATS L19 as home chalk. LA’s YTD point differential is still negative while the Giants are outscored by only 5.2 PPG. I think the Giants’ offense can find success here as the Chargers’ D still ranks 31st against the run and 31st on third downs. 8* NY Giants

10* Carolina (1:00 ET): The Panthers’ 3-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they are 5-7 SU/ATS coming out of the bye. This is a team that’s finished with just five wins each of the last two seasons. If they want to beat that number in 2021, this might be their last chance to do so. That’s because the final four weeks of the season will see Carolina face Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans. Three of those games are on the road. Given that upcoming schedule and the fact that (now former) OC Joe Brady was dismissed during the bye week, I’m expecting an “inspired effort” here from the Panthers. 

Atlanta may have the same 5-7 SU record as Carolina, but I’d argue the Falcons are a significantly worse football team. Point differential certainly paints that picture as Atlanta has been outscored this season by 116 points. Carolina is only -17 in point differential. While the Panthers are fresh off a bye, the Falcons are playing for an eighth straight week. Last week marked the Dirty Birds’ fifth double digit loss of the season. This team is actually ranked dead last in the league in DVOA and struggles in all three phases of the game. The bottom line is that my power ratings say Carolina should be laying closer to SIX points on Sunday. 

I took the Panthers in the first meeting of the season, which they won 19-13 in Atlanta as 2.5-point dogs. They ended up outgaining the Falcons 332-213 thanks to a substantial edge in the ground game. Carolina ran for 200+ yards that day. While they no longer have RB Christian McCaffery (out for year) at their disposal, that’s okay. McCaffery didn’t play in that first matchup either. It was Chubba Hubbard leading the way. From Weeks 4-8, Hubbard was second in the NFL in rush attempts and ninth in yards. The Panthers also now have Cam Newton playing QB. The Falcons’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Panthers are fifth in the league in pass defense. Specifically, they’re very good at defending tight ends, so I’d expect Kyle Pitts (two catches, 13 yards in 1st meeting) to not have a big day. Lay the short number. 10* Carolina

8* Houston (1:00 ET): I understand that few, if any, want to touch the Texans right now, let alone when they have Davis Mills quarterbacking. But are we really convinced that Seattle should be laying this many points on the road, against anyone? I guess this will be the test. The Seahawks are off a 30-23 win over San Francisco last week as 2.5-point dogs. But that was at home and they were aided by both a 73-yard TD on a fake punt and a safety. The Seahawks are 2-0 vs. the 49ers this year, but 2-8 SU against the rest of their schedule. Last week was just their second win since Week 4. I’m taking the points. 

Just how odd is it to see a 4-8 SU team favored by seven or more on the road? Well, per ESPN Stats & Info, Seattle is the first team since 1966 with a win percentage of .333 or worse to be laying seven or more on the road in the month of December! Also, keep in mind the fact that the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS their last five tries as a favorite and have also lost outright four times. They are 1-7 ATS in their L8 games as a road favorite going back to last year. 

I’m not going to look you in the eye and tell you that Mills is good. But he’s no worse than Tyrod Taylor has been at QB for Houston. Before getting steamrolled 31-0 by a good Colts team last week, the Texans previous three games had all been decided by single digits. They beat the Titans 22-13 on the road. The two losses were by seven and eight points. Just “hold your nose” and take the points here as I don’t think a defense that gives up nearly 400 YPG and just lost Jamal Adams for the season should be laying this many points. 8* Houston

10* Under Navy/Army (3:00 ET): No surprise here. Over the last 16 College Football seasons, the Under is a preposterous 38-9 when two of the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) face off. That includes a 2-0 mark in 2021 as Army’s game vs. Air Force ended up as a 21-14 win (with overtime!) while Navy’s game vs. Air Force was a 23-3 loss. The O/U lines for those respective games vs. the AFA were a little higher than what we’ve got to work with here, but I’m still sticking with the Under. 

That’s because taking the Under when Army plays Navy may be the most surefire bet in the sport. It’s cashed 10 straight years and 17 of the last 21. Last year’s 15-0 Army win was the lowest-scoring edition in recent history, but even so, three of the last four meetings have seen 27 or fewer points scored. It’s not difficult to understand why. With both teams running the triple option, the clock is almost always moving as you don’t have to worry about too many incompletions. Both defenses are also uniquely suited to stop, or at least slow down, the triple-option as they face it in practice every day.

In the case of Navy, they are only averaging 3.91 yards per carry. So this should be an “easy day at the office” for an Army defense that is allowing just 3.65 yards per carry. The Midshipmen also only average 20.4 PPG. That number was a lot lower before they managed to score 38 and 35 points in the final two regular season games. Before that, they’d only topped 20 twice! Even Army’s offensive production was halted somewhat down the stretch. In four of the last seven games, the Black Knights ran for less than 3.7 yards per carry. The exceptions were Bucknell (FCS), UMass (worst team in FBS) and Wake Forest (poor defense). 10* Under Navy/Army

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): Despite what the records may say, I believe the Vikings are a better football team than the Steelers. Minnesota may be 5-7 SU, but (unlike the Steelers) they can actually claim a POSITIVE YTD point differential, albeit a small one (at +3). The Vikes’ seven losses have all been by eight points or fewer. Four have been decided on the final play of the game, including a pair of OT losses. Last week may have been the new nadir as the Vikes fell 29-27 to the previously winless Lions. That was a game where Mike Zimmer’s team was favored by a TD on the road, had a 426-372 edge in total yards and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The defense simply could not get the last stop that Zimmer needed. 

So, at this point, I’m pretty much willing to “dig my heels in” and let it be known that I don’t think Pittsburgh is a very good team. Sure, they beat the Ravens last week to move to 6-5-1 on the year. But the Steelers have been outscored this season by 42 points. They are the only team in the NFL to have a winning record and negative point differential. While a bulk of that negative point differential stems from a 41-10 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, it’s also true that the Steelers do not have a single victory this season by more than eight points. Their six victories have been by a total of 26 points. Bottom line: I do NOT believe this team is going to make the playoffs. I want to play against them here. 

The defense may have let them down last week, but the Vikings are a lot stingier here at home. A lot stingier, in fact. On the road, Minnesota allows 29.2 PPG. That’s second most in the NFL. But at home, they allow only 19.8 PPG, which is in the top 10. It’s that defensive improvement that allows me to look past the potential absences of WR Adam Thielein and RB Dalvin Cook on Thursday. The Steelers’ offense, which averages only 20.3 PPG and has an aging Ben Roethlisberger at QB, isn’t very good. And the last two times the Steelers have gone on the road, their defense has surrendered 41 points in both games! The Vikings moved the ball fine w/o Thielen and Cook last week. My power ratings do say that the Vikings are the better team here. So they probably should be laying more than a field goal. But with all but one of their games having been decided by eight points or less, I feel more comfortable simply playing them on the money line. They WILL win this game. 8* Minnesota (MONEY LINE)

10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): After a weak Sunday slate, we’ve certainly got something to “sink our teeth into” here as New England faces Buffalo on Monday Night Football. These are the two top teams in my own personal power rankings. Winners of six straight (SU and ATS), the Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. Last time we saw them, they blew out the Titans 36-13. That was their third straight win by 23+ points. But it would be unwise to disregard what the Bills have done this season. They were the Super Bowl favorite not even a month ago. I’m going to lay the short number in this one.

What’s hurt the perception of Buffalo over the last month is two confounding losses. One was at Jacksonville, by a score of 9-6, and I still have no explanation for what happened there. A 41-15 loss to the Colts two weeks ago was easier to explain as the Bills were -4 in turnovers in that game. Despite losing by 26, they actually had a slight edge in yards per play. It was a strong bounce back game Thanksgiving Night against New Orleans as the Bills went on the road and won 31-6 as 6.5-point road favorites. With 10 days between games, I expect the Bills to be sharp on their home field tonight. 

You’ve got to respect New England’s 5-0 SU road record. However, they’ve gone off as the favorite in four of those five games. So you can’t be too surprised by their success. The only time they haven’t been favored on the road was against the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the league. The other four road wins were against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. Buffalo’s defense, which is #1 in total yards allowed, should make Mac Jones “look like a rookie” tonight in what amounts to a statement game for the reigning AFC East Champs. New England is “due” to lose here. 10* Buffalo

9* Denver (8:20 ET): I think that this spread is way too high given these two AFC West teams have nearly identical YTD point differentials. Denver has outscored their opponents by 32 points this season while Kansas City is +31. I took the Broncos last week and as a slight home dog they delivered an impressive outright win, 28-13 over the Chargers. That has them at 6-5, tied with the Chargers and Raiders for second place in the division, one game behind the first place Chiefs. I’m taking the points here.

Chiefs HC Andy Reid has been profitable in his career when off a bye, but he’s just 1-3 ATS the L4 times in that situation. Going back to last year, Kansas City has been a disaster at the betting window, going just 6-19 ATS the L25 games. Prior to the bye, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys 19-9. But those were two of their biggest wins all season. Before that, they had just two double digit wins and both came on the road against NFC East teams. At home, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season and averaging only 21.5 PPG.

Believe it or not, this will be just the fourth time this year that Denver is an underdog. I already mentioned cashing in on them last week at home vs. the Chargers. But I also had them +10 in Dallas back on November 7th when they won outright 30-16. This is a huge game for the Broncos as they’ve lost 11 straight times to the Chiefs, many of them blowouts. They aren’t looking to get blown out on national TV. A defense that allows the league’s fewest number of trips into the red zone should - at the very least - help the Broncos stay within the number. 9* Denver

8* Over Jaguars/Rams (4:05 ET): Both the Jaguars and Rams come into this Week 13 matchup on three-game SU losing streaks. However, there are longer streaks at play as well. The Rams have failed to cover five straight games, a streak that dates back to mid-October. The Jaguars have gone Under in six straight games. I know we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the NFL here (Jacksonville) going cross-county to face a Rams team that’s had some poor offensive outings of late. But I’ve got a “hunch” that this one is set to go Over. The Rams should score a lot of points in this game. 

The Rams scored 28 last week against the Packers. The problem is they also gave up 36. The last three games, again all losses, have seen the Rams’ defense allow an average of 31.7 PPG. While they aren’t likely to give up that many here to the Jaguars, I think they’ll still give up enough to allow this game to go Over the total.

Though they only scored 16 points against the Titans and 10 against the 49ers, there’s really nothing “wrong” with the Rams offense. As I mentioned above, they put up 28 points and 5.8 yards per play last week. Los Angeles comes into this game averaging 27.2 PPG and will be facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up 27.0 PPG on the road. These teams play only once every four years, but for what it’s worth, the Over is 4-0 the L4 meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Rams

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): While I’m not going so far as to predict a Bears outright victory here, I do believe they can keep the game close at home. They’re coming off a “mini-bye” as Monsters of the Midway last played on Thanksgiving when they defeated Detroit 16-14 as three-point favorites. They may not have covered the spread, but HC Matt Nagy (on the hot seat) will gladly take the SU win as it snapped a five-game losing skid. The Bears’ last three games have been decided by a total of seven points.

Arizona is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road. Winning every road game is tough enough. Covering them all is very rare. The 9-2 Cardinals are coming off their bye, but QB Kyler Murray remains a “gametime decision” as the team looks to be cautious given Murray’s injury history. They probably think they don’t need him to beat the Bears, especially after backup Colt McCoy led a 23-13 “upset” in Seattle two weeks ago. The Cards are actually 2-1 with McCoy as the starter. My view is that if Murray does play, we’re going to get a better number. So you may want to wait closer to kickoff to bet this one.

Andy Dalton will start for the Bears. Not inspiring, but he threw for 317 yards last week. It was the first 300+ yard day by a Bears QB since Nick Foles last season. Also, RB David Montgomery is back. Look for edge-rusher Robert Quinn to pressure whomever Arizona’s QB ends up being. I just can’t see the Cardinals winning a seventh straight road game by double digits. Only two other teams (in NFL HISTORY) have done it six times. In addition to Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins is also a game-time decision. Hold your nose and take the points in this one. 8* Chicago

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): With the Bengals favored by only three points at home, oddsmakers are essentially saying they see these teams as “even” on a neutral field. I have a different view. After B2B impressive wins (over the Raiders and Steelers), Cincinnati has a +83 YTD point differential. That’s third best in the AFC, trailing only the Patriots and Bills. Don’t forget the Bengals also blew out the Ravens, 41-17 back in Week 7. That’s a Ravens team that blew out the Chargers 34-6 the week prior. Los Angeles, despite being 6-5 SU, comes into this game with a -20 YTD point differential.

I chose to fade the Chargers last week and that ended up being a wise decision. They went to Denver as 2.5-point favorites and lost outright 28-13. Despite outgaining the Broncos, LA never led and trailed most of the way by double digits. More bad news is the fact this just isn’t the Chargers “time of year.” In Weeks 10 through 13, they are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS. It gets worse as they are also 1-7 SU/ATS coming off a division loss. The fact that this team has been outscored tells me they aren’t as good as their record. The defense really struggles to stop the run (164 YPG allowed on the road) and has given up an average of 31.3 PPG the L7 weeks.

You can look for the Bengals’ offense, which has scored 31+ points in five of its last six games, to take advantage of that suspect Chargers’ defense. Also note that this is an early start for the road team (10 AM West Coast time), which is a disadvantage. The last time the Chargers played a 1 PM ET game was … the blowout loss to Baltimore. They are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the road. That just won’t cut it against a Bengals team that is one of the most improved in the league this year. The Cincinnati defense has allowed just 23 points in the L2 games. 10* Cincinnati

8* Iowa (8:00 ET): This is a very tricky spot for #2 Michigan as they are off the emotional win over Ohio State (1st time beating the Buckeyes since 2011) and now find themselves as double digit favorites over a tough Iowa team. All the Wolverines need to do here is win and they are on to the College Football Playoff. But winning by double digits against a team that is 10-2 SU with six straight victories over ranked opponents will not be easy to do. I’m taking the points here as favorites are on a 2-8 ATS run in Big 10 Championship Games, including 0-5 when it’s not Ohio State. 

Michigan is ranked #2 in the country right now, but so was Iowa at one point earlier in the year. That was pre-CFP rankings, but it’s still worth noting. While the Hawkeyes were actually underdogs to a 3-8 Nebraska team last week, they’ve never gotten more than four points - in any game - from the oddsmakers this season. I know that they are not the prettiest team (outgained in five of the last six games) and I was actually on the other side (Nebraska) last Friday. But an additional day between games and a stout defense should keep this one close throughout. 

Michigan has been very good at the betting window thus far. In fact, they have the best ATS record in the country at 10-2 (4-0 L4). But this is arguably the most pressure they’ve had to deal with all season. It’s their first ever Big 10 Championship Game appearance and I just don’t see the favorite scoring enough to cover this number. The running game that was so effective last week vs. Ohio State now faces a top 15 defense in rush yards allowed. Teams off B2B ATS wins heading into Conference Championship Games are just 42.1% ATS all-time. 8* Iowa

8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): This isn’t the ACC Championship Game anyone expected as it will be the first to not involve Clemson since 2014. It was Wake Forest unseating the reigning six-time ACC Champions in the Atlantic Division, even though they lost to the Tigers 48-27 (in Death Valley) two weeks ago. Over in the Coastal, Pittsburgh took advantage of disappointing seasons from North Carolina and Miami to win its second division title in four years. Both teams enter the game at 10-2 straight up, though Pitt has been better ATS (9-3 vs. 6-5-1). It’s just the second 10-win season ever for WF and the first since 1981 for Pitt. 

Everyone, including the oddsmakers, is expecting a high-scoring game here in Charlotte. Both offenses are in the top four nationally by averaging just over 42 PPG. Last night’s C-USA Title game had a similarly high total and those teams (Western Kentucky & UTSA) blew past the number. But I expect this game, which is not being played indoors, to go a little differently. This could close as the highest O/U line for any Pitt game under HC Pat Narduzzi. The previous high (72) was the game vs. North Carolina on November 11th and the final score in that one ended up being just 30-23. 

Prior to last night’s C-USA shootout, taking the Under was quite profitable this College Football season when the O/U line is 70 points or higher. I cashed the Under in last year’s ACC Championship Game (Clemson-Notre Dame) when the number wasn’t quite as high. I think Pitt’s defense is going to make a surprising number of stops in this game while their offense has failed to top 34 points in five of the last seven games. There’s going to be plenty of points scored here, but not as many as the oddsmakers are calling for. With the “world” on the Over, I’m going the other way. 8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh

8* Cincinnati (4:00 ET): There is obviously a TON of pressure on #4 Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are looking to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff. They are 11-0 and ranked #4, so all they probably need to do here is to win the game straight up. But why leave things to chance? If Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma State all win today, then the Bearcats are probably “sweating” on Selection Sunday. However, a big win from Cincy on Saturday would essentially render all other results irrelevant to their plight and guarantee them a spot in the top four. So I’m laying the points. 

 The fact that this American Conference Championship Game is taking place at (historic) Nippert Stadium (where Cincy has won 26 in a row) is being underrated in my eyes. This season has seen the Bearcats go 6-0 SU at home with the average margin of victory being 32.5 points per game. Now they’re obviously not playing teams as good as Houston every week. But this will be just the fourth time this season that Cincinnati is favored by fewer than two touchdowns. They are 3-0 ATS previously, beating Notre Dame and Indiana on the road and SMU here at home. All three wins were by double digits.

With their own 11-game win streak, Houston is seemingly a “trendy dog” in this matchup. Normally, I gravitate towards the underdog, but not when they’re trendy like this. The last two times Cincinnati has faced Houston, the Bearcats have won by a combined 43 points. It was 38-10 LY here at Nippert Stadium as the home team finished with a massive 510-282 edge in total yardage. Houston has failed to cover in five straight December/January games and I just don’t think they are on Cincinnati’s level. My power ratings say this spread should be closer to two touchdowns, so I’ll lay the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Alabama (4:00 ET): I think we can all agree that Georgia was the best team in the country during the regular season. The #1 ranked Bulldogs trailed only four times all year, only once after the first quarter and never in the second half. They had a 14+ point halftime lead in 10 of their 12 games, including each of the last five. They come into the SEC Championship Game fresh off their third shutout season, a 45-0 win over Georgia Tech as 35-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, the Dawgs have been successful at the betting window (8-4 ATS) as well, but they are about to encounter their toughest test of 2021. I look at this line and think it’s a big mistake to be doubting Nick Saban this much. 

#3 Alabama will be an underdog here for just the second time in its last 165 games. This seems to be the first time in seemingly FOREVER that public sentiment seems to have shifted AGAINST Saban and the Crimson Tide. I think a lot of that has to do with last week’s close call against Auburn, a 24-22 win that went to four overtimes. The Tide were a strong fade for me in the Iron Bowl as I thought the 20.5-point spread was way too high for a rivalry game. But it should be noted they outgained Auburn 388-159. Again, given the Tide’s resume, doubting them here seems foolish to me. An outright win by the dog seems more likely here than a blowout loss, especially with Bama having beaten Georgia six straight times, including twice in the SEC Championship Game. 

Taking the points here also seems prudent given the situation as it relates to the College Football Playoff. Alabama probably needs to win this game. It is possible that they could remain in the top four even with a loss, but it would have to be a close loss. Georgia is trying to protect the #1 seed, but is already assured of being in the playoff no matter what. So there’s a greater sense of urgency on the Crimson Tide sideline. Much is being made over the Tide’s ability to protect QB Bryce Young against the #1 ranked UGA defense. But I think that Bama’s defense, led by Will Anderson Jr (leads the country in sacks and TFL) can put pressure on Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. 10* Alabama

8* UTSA (7:00 ET): Bettors REALLY seem eager to “write off” UTSA now that the Roadrunners are no longer unbeaten. There is no denying the fact that last week’s 45-23 loss to a hot North Texas team (that was also looking to become eligible) was a bad showing from the West Division Champs of C-USA. But “writing off” a team that won its first 11 games and is playing for a conference championship on its home field seems like a mistake. With UTSA moving from slight favorite to home dog, I’m taking the points Friday night. The Roadrunners are 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of 22.2 PPG! 

Western Kentucky, the champs of C-USA’s East Division, is a team deserving of respect. But even after seven straight wins and going 5-0 ATS L5 games, the Hilltoppers probably should not be favored here. None of those seven straight wins have been against teams with winning records. Two were against 6-6 teams (Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee) while the rest were against the dregs of Conference USA. It should be noted that WKU’s last loss came at the hands of UTSA, 52-46 in Bowling Green. With the Hilltoppers losing that game outright as a home favorite, I don’t see how they are now favored on the road. 

Though an unbeaten season was on the line, last week seemed like a “flat spot” for UTSA. They were coming off a thrilling 34-31 home win over UAB (thanks to a last second TD) that clinched them a spot in this C-USA Title Game. So, in essence, the Roadrunners really had nothing to play for in Denton. It was rainy and three early fumbles against proved to be killers as they fell behind 17-3 in the first quarter. Now they’re back at home and I expect an offense that has averaged “only” 28 points the L3 games to get back on track against a WKU defense they hung 52 points and 564 total yards on in the first meeting. Also, at home, UTSA’s defense is allowing just 13.0 PPG. 8* UTSA

10* Over Seattle/Washington (8:15 ET): Since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 SU and scored just 13 points. That point total is a little misleading though as Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone against Green Bay. With the season very much on the brink heading into tonight, look for Wilson and the Seattle offense to “pick up the pace” against a Washington defense that has mostly struggled in 2021. Through the first four games of the season, the Football Team had the worst third down defensive efficiency in league HISTORY! They are still giving up 26.7 PPG. 

Washington’s offense has gotten better though, specifically QB Taylor Heinicke, who will be seeking to be the first QB to throw 3+ TD passes in B2B games for the franchise since Kirk Cousins did it back in 2016. The Football Team is coming off back to back upset wins, the first a real shocker as they were 10-point dogs and beat the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 29-19. Last week, they went to Carolina and won 27-21. Seattle’s defense was very poor at the start of the season. While it’s gotten somewhat better over the last month or so, it is still giving up over 400 YPG for the year. 

So I’m looking for this game to go Over the total. Yes, Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the Under (8-2 for some) this season, but I really do think this is the game where we start to see the “old Wilson.” As for Heinicke, he’s thrown for more than 245 yards in six of his nine games. The Over the L4 times that Washington has been off a SU win. 10* Over Seattle/Washington

8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): The Browns were 0-7 ATS in division games under HC Kevin Stefanski, but then they blew out Cincinnati, 41-16 (as 1-pt road dogs) three weeks ago. That was another game where the sharp money was seemingly on them, despite being off less than a stellar performance. Before beating the Bengals, the Browns had lost 15-10 to the Steelers. Here they are off a win, albeit an unimpressive one, 13-10 (as 13.5 point chalk) over the winless Lions. I think Cleveland will surprise you in this spot. 

Baltimore has been a pretty lucky team this season. They are 7-3 SU and lead the AFC North, but that’s thanks in no small part to a 5-1 SU record in one-score games. There have been four games decided by three points or less and the Ravens have won all them. The latest was last week, 16-13 over Chicago, where the Ravens were outgained 353-299. I know there was no Lamar Jackson in that game, but the Ravens very nearly lost. It was the FOURTH time this year they got the go-ahead score in the final minute. Twice this year they’ve come back from a double digit deficit to win in overtime.

Cleveland was leading 13-0 last week at the half. The offense did nothing in the second half as QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% and continues to struggle. But the only real mistake made by the Browns’ defense last week was giving up one long TD run. The Lions’ FG came after a 9-yard drive. Cleveland is healthy again at RB, which is the key to their offensive success. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in six different games this season, including four of the last five. Baltimore is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite thus far. Take the points. 8* Cleveland 

10* LA Rams (4:25 ET): This line has certainly shifted during the week, but I think the line move is warranted. The game might be in Lambeau Field (where it will be cold), but the Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game after heading into the bye on a two-game losing streak. Due to COVID and a toe injury, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has not been able to practice regularly the last three weeks. I believe the Rams are the better team here and think they’ll show it on Sunday. 

I faded Green Bay last week. Despite them playing nearly flawlessly, I came away with a winning ticket as the Vikings pulled a 34-31 upset, thanks to a GW field goal as time expired. That snapped what had been a record-setting 9-game ATS win streak for the Packers. My view is they are still due to “give some back.” I say this based on the fact they only have a +33 point differential, despite their 8-3 SU record. I just don’t think the Pack are as good as their record would seem to indicate.

This is also a big-time revenge game for the Rams, who are 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings with the Packers, including a playoff loss last January. Green Bay has won six of those previous seven meetings outright. But the Rams are not only rested this time, but have also upgraded their roster with the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.  Green Bay is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and could struggle to protect Rodgers in this matchup. Having not had their bye yet (comes next week), the Packers could be somewhat gassed, especially compared to a rested opponent. 10* LA Rams

9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road. 

Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio.

The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert.  Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points.

The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week.

New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee

8* USC (10:30 ET): It’s been an ugly season at USC. Clay Helton was fired after a 42-28 loss to Stanford and since that time, there’s been little in the way of improvement. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS their last five games, losing four of them straight up. The lone win was against Arizona and last week may have been a new low as they were crushed 62-33 by rival UCLA here at the Coliseum. Looking back, can you believe this team was actually FAVORED against Utah? 

The fact the Trojans were home favorites against the Utes only underscores what a disappointing season this has been in Southern California. USC is in danger of its second losing season in three years. Before that, they had not had a losing year since 2000. But a strong finish, unlikely as it may seem, would get the Trojans to a bowl game. They have to win these last two games, mind you. Beating #13 BYU may seem unlikely, but I do see plenty of value on the home dog at this price. My power ratings have this line much closer to a pick ‘em. 

I do not think for a second that BYU is the 13th best team in the country. My power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 40. The Cougars are 4-0 SU against Pac 12 teams this season, but all four wins were by 10 points or less. They’ve been beating up on some weak teams down the stretch, like Idaho State and Georgia Southern the last two weeks. I just think USC is better than what it's shown on the field this season and in the final home game, I expect them to “show up.” They’ve got a good running game and that should keep them in this one. Take the points. 8* USC

9* West Virginia (7:00 ET): I understand that Kansas has been more “competitive” of late, with a win over Texas and a three-point loss to TCU. But WVU must win here in order to become bowl eligible and I don’t see them taking it easy on the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers have won seven straight times in this particular “rivalry,” six of those coming by double digits. My power ratings have this spread north of three touchdowns, so I’ll gladly lay a hair over two. 

Kansas is still last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and defense. They are also last in total yards on both sides of the ball. So they’ve got a long way to go in terms of being competitive on a regular basis, even if 1st year HC Lance Leipold has them trending in a positive direction. Before the last two weeks, the Jayhawks had lost eight straight double digit games, all but one coming by 19 points or greater. They’ve been outscored on average by 22.8 PPG this season and that number grows to 26.0 PPG in conference action. 

West Virginia showed last week that it was still interested in making it to a bowl. They beat Texas 31-23 in the Morgantown finale and had 459 yards of total offense. QB Doege leads the Big 12 in passing yards and should have a field day here against a KU defense that has surrendered 52 or more points four different times in 2021. The Mountaineers’ defense may not have to worry about facing Jayhawks RB Devin Neal, who injured his ankle LW vs. TCU. Lay the points. 9* West Virginia

10* Louisiana (4:00 ET): I realize that Louisiana has the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Appalachian State) on deck next week, but I’m not concerned with the “lookahead factor” here at all. The Ragin Cajuns are a vastly superior side compared to rival LA Monroe and this spread is about a touchdown too low. LA Monroe might not be the worst team in the Sun Belt, but they are close. The Warhawks have been underdogs of 23.5 points or more six times in 2021. Why not here? 

Now it may have something to do with an incredible trend in this rivalry, known as the “Battle of the Bayou.” Over the last 22 years, the road team has gone 19-2-1 ATS! But let’s not forget who won last year. That would be Louisiana and it was by a score of 70-20. That was the 11th SU win by the Ragin Cajuns in the last 13 meetings. That trend that favors the road team is due to go “the other way,” sooner rather than later and 2021 feels like the right time for that to begin. 

Louisiana is on a 10-game win streak (only loss was to Texas in the season opener). Some of the wins have been close, but they just clobbered Liberty by 28 last week on the road. This Ragin Cajun team has won 15 straight over SBC West foes under HC Billy Napier and is looking for its first perfect conference record as a Sun Belt member. So they are going to come out motivated on Saturday. They want the highest ranking possible for bowl purposes. This spread should be four touchdowns, not three. 10* Louisiana

8* Auburn (3:30 ET): I understand that QB Bo Nix is out for the season and that the Tigers have lost three straight. But this is too high of a line for the Iron Bowl, a rivalry game that has seen the home team win eight of the last nine meetings, including five straight. Going back further, the home team is on a 13-4 ATS run in Iron Bowls. Alabama has lost its last two trips to Jordan-Hare, 26-14 as a five-point favorite and 48-45 as a three-point favorite. As per usual, Auburn will treat the Iron Bowl as their “Super Bowl” and I don’t see them being blown out. Bama will win, but take the points. 

Alabama obviously can’t lose here, but their focus is more likely to be on next week’s SEC Championship Game vs. #1 Georgia. If the Crimson Tide win these next two games, then they’re back in the CFP. My view is there’s no fear of actually losing to Auburn, so this is a classic “trap” spot. The Tide have been by no means “rolling” their last two SEC games, both of which were decided by seven points or less. They beat LSU by six and Arkansas by seven. The defense allowed almost 500 total yards last week. 

Nix’s replacement is TJ Finley, a transfer from NC State. While he wasn’t all that great the last three quarters against South Carolina last week, that was a road game. Early on, he led two touchdown drives in that game. Finley would be well-served to hand the ball off to RB Tank Bigsby, who has five 100+ yard games this season. My power ratings say this number should be closer to +12, so expect Auburn to surprise the linesmakers a bit in this one as Alabama looks ahead to next week’s SEC Championship. 8* Auburn  

9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St (2:00 ET): Neither of these two teams are going to a bowl. Texas State is 3-8 SU after losing five of six. The Bobcats’ lone win during that stretch was 27-19 over LA Monroe. I do not expect them to deliver a solid effort on the defensive side of the ball Saturday. Outside of San Marcos, Texas State is giving up 36.8 PPG. Of course, that’s not very far off from what they allow overall (34.0 PPG). Three of the last four opponents have gone for 35 or more points.

Arkansas State is 2-9 SU and their only win in the last seven games was against LA Monroe, 27-24 as a three-point road dog. The last six Red Wolves games have all stayed Under the total. But it’s important to note that all six O/U lines were higher than this one. ASU has an even worse defense than Texas State, one that gives up a shocking 40.8 PPG at home. They allow 39.9 PPG overall. There have been four different games this year where the Red Wolves allowed at least 50 points. 

When these teams played last year, it was a wild 47-45 Texas State win in San Marcos as a four-point home dog. Arkansas State is a much more prolific offensive team in Jonesboro this season, averaging over 30 PPG here at home. Texas State allowed five TD passes and almost 500 yards total to Coastal Carolina last week. The last 10 times Arkansas State has been favored, the Over is 7-3. 9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St

8* Florida (12:00 ET): This used to be one of the premier matchups of every College Football season. But that was 20 years ago. Now Florida State and Florida are both 5-6 SU and fighting for the right JUST TO GO to a bowl. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, meaning an interim (Greg Knox) will be coaching. Only the winner here gets to go to a bowl. While many are being quick to write off the Gators, Florida State just isn’t very good and given the series history, the home team should be laying more points here. 

The Gators were 2-0 vs. Florida State under Mullen. The schools did not meet last year because of COVID-19, which was probably just fine as far as the Seminoles were concerned. Not only were they 3-6 SU last year, but the ‘Noles had previously lost to the Gators 40-17 in 2019 and 41-14 in 2018. The side that has been favored has won the last five Sunshine Showdowns and covered 16 of the last 20. Florida is 4-1 SU in Gainesville this year and the last two games here, they’ve put up a total of 112 points. 

The Gators are just 1-4 SU their L5 games (0-5 ATS) but that’s with two close losses on the road (LSU, Missouri). Florida State has been trending the opposite way, winning five of its last seven. But it’s hard for me to believe the Seminoles are capable of pulling a third straight outright upset. The L2 weeks have seen them beat Miami and Boston College, both by only three points. The Noles’ actually have a trio of three-point wins this season. Homefield advantage is the difference in this one. 8* Florida

10* Colorado (4:00 ET): So #19 Utah is off its biggest win of the season, a 38-7 beatdown of Oregon that assured the Utes a place in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game. There is a decent shot that game could be a rematch with the Ducks. But first comes this minor piece of business, the regular season finale where they are huge favorites over Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing to play for here, but that didn’t stop them last week from upsetting Washington 20-17 as a 6.5-point dog. It would be foolish to expect a similar result here, but the Buffs should keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. 

Last week was actually the second upset in three weeks by Colorado. Earlier, also in Boulder, they beat Oregon State 37-34 as an 11.5-point dog. That’s a pretty impressive win, quite frankly. Now the road has been less kind with CU yet to win a single time away from home this season. But catching Utah the week after its biggest win of the season is a favorable situation. The Buffaloes may have been outgained badly last week by Washington, but finding a way to win when you’re 2 of 13 on third down is pretty impressive. I expect the offense to be more efficient on third down here. 

This is just a classic letdown spot, plain and simple. I know Utah has been rolling, but my power ratings say this spread should be below three touchdowns. So there’s value with the road dog, particularly because they’ll at least be motivated to keep it close against a rival they’ve lost to four years in a row, the last three losses all coming by 17 points or greater. At the very worst, look for the “back door” to be open Friday night in Salt Lake City where the Utes can’t possibly match their intensity from last week. 10* Colorado 

8* Nebraska (1:30 ET): What a trying season it’s been in Lincoln for Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers. Did you know - that despite a 1-7 SU conference record - Nebraska actually has a positive point differential in Big 10 games? How is that even possible, you ask? Well, on October 2nd, they beat Northwestern 56-7. The Cornhuskers’ seven losses in Big 10 play this year have been by a total of 42 points, none of them exceeding a nine-point margin. That is insane and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like it before. I think speaks volumes that Nebraska is favored here, even if it’s ever so slightly, against a team that at one point was ranked as high as #2 in the country.

Iowa has since slipped to 16th after suffering B2B bad losses to Purdue and Wisconsin last month. Those losses were by a combined 37 points, almost equal to the margin of Nebraska’s seven conference defeats. The Hawkeyes have since righted the ship with three straight wins, but two were by just five points (against N’western and Minnesota) and even last week Kirk Ferentz’s team was outgained (312-255) in a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes were really lucky during their 6-0 SU start to the season as they forced a lot of turnovers. (Note they were -6 in TO’s in the two games they lost). 

Nebraska has not beaten Iowa since 2014 with the last three losses - predictably - all coming by six points or less. Frost has been absolutely “snake-bit” in close games during his tenure here with the Cornhuskers going 5-19 SU when the final score is decided by seven points or less. I think it’s time for him to win one. I know that the Cornhuskers have nothing to play for here (except pride!) and QB Martinez will miss the game. But Iowa’s offense is BAD and has been outgained in five consecutive games! Frost deserves this one. 8* Nebraska

8* Over Boise St/San Diego St (12:00 ET): Both of these teams are trying to nail down a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. It is highly unlikely that they’ll see each other again in a rematch next week. Boise State is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead and the other two teams (Air Force & Utah State) are decided favorites this week. A loss for San Diego State potentially drops them into a tie with Fresno State, who plays Thursday and holds the head to head tiebreaker. So unless Fresno State gets upset Thursday, both Boise & SDSU have a lot on the line Friday. 

Note the VERY early start time for this game. Kickoff will be at 9 AM PT. That was done for TV purposes. It will be interesting to see if the early kickoff has any adverse effect on the players. I think the two defenses may not be as sharp as they usually are. If so, look for this game to fly past the total. Boise State comes in averaging 30.4 PPG on the year. San Diego State averages 30.5 PPG at home. Something that I should point out here is just how lucky the Aztecs have been this season. They are 5-0 SU in one-score games. They may be rated #21 by CFP committee, but my power ratings have them MUCH lower. 

Boise State has gone Under in six straight games. That, and the fact they are playing San Diego State, is why this O/U line is so low. But remember what I said earlier about the two offenses. Boise has averaged 32 PPG during its current four-game win streak. But three of the four teams they beat up on aren’t very strong offensively. San Diego State put up 28 points last week in a win over UNLV. This is the lowest O/U line of the season for any Boise State game. Again, I think the respective defenses are “caught napping” after Thanksgiving and this turns into a surprisingly high-scoring game. 8* Over Boise St/San Diego St

8* New Orleans (8:20 ET): For the first time since 2016, the Saints have lost three in a row. Now if you are a regular client of mine, that shouldn’t surprise you. I said to fade New Orleans last week and that turned out to be a good bet as they lost 40-29 to the Eagles. Really, things weren’t even as close as that final score makes it seem. The Saints fell behind 33-7 after three quarters and were clearly outclassed from the get-go. But I should mention how turnovers played a key role in that outcome. The Saints had three of them, one of which was an INT that was returned for a TD. They actually outgained the Eagles, slightly, on a per play basis for the game. The key for Philly was having three scoring drives (besides the pick-six) begin in Saints’ territory. What I’m saying is - don’t write off New Orleans just yet. 

Especially not here at home. Last week marked the first time in five games this season that they did NOT cover as an underdog. They’d won three of the previous four outright. Of course, last week’s game was on the road. I remind you of that because the Saints are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home underdog. They are also the only team in the league to alternate ATS wins and losses all season. If that trend holds here, that means they’ll cover the spread. Going back to last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS off its previous six ATS losses. 

Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five games, including an embarrassing outright loss to Jacksonville a few weeks ago. As embarrassing as that defeat to the Jags was, last week’s 41-15 thrashing at the hands of the Colts may have been their nadir. While the Bills still are near the top of my power ratings, I think they’re laying too many points in this Thanksgiving night matchup. The spread should be under a FG, so I think there’s value here on the home dog, who has seen three of its five losses come by six points or fewer. 8* New Orleans

10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around.

The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good.

These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints

8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): It speaks volumes that the last place team in the MAC West (Western Michigan) is favored here (on the road, no less!) against the team that has already sewn up the division title, that being Northern Illinois. Perhaps part of that is NIU potentially looking forward to next week’s MAC Championship Game against whomever wins the East Division (will be Miami or Kent State). But the reality of the matter is that the Huskies aren’t a very good team. Despite being division champs - and an 8-3 overall SU record - they have a -20 point differential for the season! 

Now part of that is due to the non-conference slate, which included a 63-10 loss to Michigan. But even still, the Huskies’ YTD point differential in MAC games is only +20. This despite having a 6-1 conference record! Not only do they have four wins by two points or less this season, including THREE one-point victories, but last week’s game vs. Buffalo was an OT affair. Northern Illinois’ largest win of the season over an FBS foe was eight points against lowly Bowling Green. They have arguably been the “luckiest” team in all of College Football in 2021. 

As for Western Michigan, they suffered a one-point LOSS to rival Eastern Michigan last week. That was yet another game where the Broncos came in as road favorites. I faded them, thinking the number was too high, which it clearly was. But the Broncos did end up with an edge in total yards (485-422) and were up 21-9 in the third quarter. This is a team that earlier in the year went to Pitt and won 44-41! Unlike Northern Illinois, WMU has a positive point differential this season. Though already bowl eligible, getting a 7th win would be huge for the Broncos as it would probably ensure they actually go to a bowl game (in the past, there have been some six-win MAC teams not selected by a bowl). Before the season, many thought WMU would win the MAC West and NIU (winless in 2020) would finish last! Lay the points. 8* Western Michigan

10* Under Giants/Buccaneers (8:15 ET): Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 65 points the last two weeks as the team has lost B2B games for the first time since the midpoint of last season. The good news for Bucs fans is that after suffering those B2B losses last season, the team didn’t lose another game and went on to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be all that confident in a similar run taking place here in 2021, but I do think at the very least the defense gets back on track Monday night vs. the Giants. 

The Giants, who are coming out of their bye week, are one of nine teams in the league that averages fewer than 20.0 PPG. It was a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago, but the touchdown that decided that game came from the defense (pick-six). Only twice in its last seven games has the Giants offense accounted for more than 20 points. Part of that has to do with RB Saquon Barkley being out, but let’s not look past the fact that Daniel Jones (0-7 SU in primetime games) is a below average NFL QB. 

One encouraging sign for the Giants is that their defense has allowed a total of just 39 points the last three games. A struggling Washington defense held Tom Brady & the Bucs offense to just 19 points last week, so I don’t see why the Giants can’t turn in yet another solid defensive effort tonight. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up only 18.5 PPG at home. Both losses they recently suffered were on the road. Including last week, the Bucs are 4-0 Under off their previous four losses. 10* Under Giants/Buccaneers

9* Seattle (4:25 ET): The return of Russell Wilson last week produced a shocking result as the Seahawks were shut out for the 1st time since 2011, which predates Wilson’s tenure here in the Pacific Northwest. The 17-0 loss to the Packers leaves Seattle at 3-6 SU and in last place in the NFC West. This week feels like a “watershed” game for the team as another loss would essentially sink their season. But a win would certainly keep them viable in the playoff hunt. Given that the Seahawks are 15-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Pete Carroll, including 6-3 with Wilson as the starter, I’m taking the points here. 

Now I know that Arizona is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and covered the spread in five of their last six visits to Seattle. But this week marks the first time since 2011 (again the year before Wilson arrived) that the Cardinals are favored here. The big story here is whether or not QB Kyler Murray (game-time decision) will play. Murray has missed the L2 games and backup Colt McCoy (will start if Murray can’t go) got injured last week in a 34-10 loss to Carolina. We know that WR DeAndre Hopkins is out Sunday. So the bottom line is that Arizona’s offense will NOT be at full strength, no matter what. 

Whether or not Murray ends up playing here is irrelevant to the selection. Coming back from a sprained ankle will limit his mobility, if he does play. If Murray is out, then I certainly don’t fear a banged up McCoy, who threw for only 107 yards last week. Given that Arizona’s bye is next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hold Murray out. While Seattle was blanked last week, note that Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone. He’s had a week to “shake off” the rust and I expect a big game from the Seahawks QB in this one. The Seahawks have three losses by a total of nine points, so their record could be much better. The Cardinals have dropped two of three following a 7-0 SU start. I can’t see them winning all their road games this season. 9* Seattle

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings finally stepped up and delivered a big-time performance last week, going to LA and defeating the Chargers 27-20 as three-point underdogs. Now 4-5 SU on the year, they seek to win B2B games for just the second time. Eight of their nine games have been decided by one score, including three in overtime and four by three points or less. So their won-loss record could easily be better. They have a positive point differential (+10) for the season. I believe this team is MUCH better than its record and is set to pull an “upset” over the division leading Packers on Sunday. 

Green Bay did it again last week, covering the spread for a ninth consecutive game as they defeated Seattle 17-0. The Packers’ current 9-0 ATS win streak is a franchise record and the third longest in history! Last week marked the return of Aaron Rodgers after he missed the loss to the Chiefs (GB’s only SU loss in the L9 games), but the former MVP has barely had any practice time the L2 weeks, not just because of COVID, but also due to a toe injury. Not that Rodgers needs a ton of practice time at this stage of his career, but here he’s facing a defense that is traditionally very good at home under Mike Zimmer. 

Minnesota allows 28.6 PPG on the road. But at home, they allow just 17.0 PPG. That’s a big difference. This week, it looks like they might get back both S Harrison Smith and CB Patrick Peterson, which would bring their secondary back to full health. Rodgers may be the QB that gets all the headlines in this matchup, but the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins is the one who actually leads the NFL in QB-INT ratio. Minnesota should probably be coming into this game on a five-game win streak (Dallas & Baltimore losses were both BRUTAL). This is a HUGE game for the Vikings to stay in the NFC North race and they are 19-6-1 ATS L26 as home dogs. 10* Minnesota

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While the Jaguars are far from my favorite team to endorse, I think this is a GREAT spot to fade the 49ers, who are on a short week and laying a big number on the road after upsetting the Rams Monday night. I took San Francisco on MNF and even I was shocked by the ease with which they won. It was 31-10, the team’s first home win in MORE THAN A YEAR. But despite the lopsided nature of the final score, yardage was pretty even - both for the game and on a per play basis. The big key was the Niners forcing two turnovers, one of which was a “pick six.” 

Really, you could make the case the Niners forced FOUR turnovers. There were two more Rams drives which ended inside the SF 20-yard line and did not result in any points. One saw the Rams attempt a fake field goal, which did not work. Another time they simply turned it over on downs. What I’m saying here is that we should temper our enthusiasm on the Niners somewhat. This is a team that had previously dropped five of six with the lone win coming against Chicago. Something else worth noting is just how poor the Niners have been as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, going just 9-21-2 ATS. That includes 2-10 ATS L12 with NINE outright losses. This is the most points they’ve had to lay on the road this season. 

Jacksonville’s defense has only given up 29 points (total) the L2 games as they have covered the spread against both Buffalo and Indianapolis, two good teams. In fact, the Jaguars stunned the Bills two weeks ago here at home, 9-6 as two-touchdown underdogs. I mentioned earlier that SF just ended a long losing streak at home. Well, now the Jags look to end a 13-game losing streak vs. the NFC, which dates back three seasons. Not sure if they can end it, but take the points as I expect this to be a close game throughout. The 49ers are not as good as they “looked” Monday night. 8* Jacksonville

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think the Eagles have proven themselves to be better than their 4-6 SU record. Not only do they sport a positive point differential on the season (+26) but they’ve also outgained opponents on a per play basis. Last week saw the Eagles go to Denver and win very convincingly, 30-13 (line closed as a pick ‘em). But one thing that the team has failed to do this year is win at home! They are 0-4 SU at Lincoln Financial Field. The only other teams not to win a home game in 2021 are the Lions (obviously) and the odious Falcons. I think it’s about time Philly gets 1st year HC Nick Sirianni a win. Lay the short number here. 

New Orleans is a team that impressed me early on this season, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory. They are 0-2 SU in November with both losses coming by two points. But don’t let last week’s 23-21 score against Tennessee fool you. It was a late TD that got them the cover. A failed two-point try ensured there would be no OT. While only losing by two points to the hottest team in the league may not sound all that bad to you, what about losing at home to Atlanta? That’s what the Saints did two weeks ago. 

I understand that the Saints have not lost three in a row since they opened 2016 at 0-3, but this is a team now being quarterbacked by backup Trevor Siemian. The strength of the Saints now resides on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. But the Eagles lead the NFL in rush yards the L3 weeks and gashed the Saints for 246 yards in an 24-21 upset last season. That was the first career start for QB Jalen Hurts. Miles Sanders is set to return this week for the Eagles, making their rushing attack all the more formidable. 8* Philadelphia

10* Under Dolphins/Jets (1:00 ET): Well, I certainly wish the Jets would have started the archaic Joe Flacco last week when I had the Under in their game vs. Buffalo. Now, maybe it would have been a “moot point” as the Flyboys scored all of seven 17 points anyway. They gave up 45 (to Buffalo) as for the sixth straight time a Jets’ game went Over the total. I’m putting my foot down again this week, saying the streak comes to an end this week against a team that’s far less explosive than Buffalo, that being Miami. Take the Under. 

I know the Jets’ defense is bad, but they probably should not have given up 45 points last week. There was a disastrous six-minute stretch to open the second half where the Bills scored a TD on their opening possession, then got two more quick touchdowns off Jets’ interceptions. It was the third time in the last four games this Jets’ stop unit gave up 45+ points, something this league has not seen since the 1966 Giants! The good news for this week is that they will be facing Tua Tagovailoa, who has an injured thumb. The Dolphins have topped 22 points just one time in their last seven games. Jets’ HC Robert Salah’s specialty is the defensive side of the ball and he’s got to get this group playing better.

But Miami’s defense probably feels pretty good about itself coming into this game. And it should, given it held Baltimore to only 10 points in a shocking Thursday night win last week. I had the Dolphins plus the points in that one and was taken aback by their performance. If they can shut Flacco’s old team down, then they can certainly shut down the 36-year old Flacco quarterbacking what is the league’s seventh lowest scoring offense (17.9 PPG). Four of Miami’s last five games have seen 43 or less total pts scored. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring division game. 10* Under Dolphins/Jets

8* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): Maybe I’ve underrated Oklahoma State all season long? The Cowboys are up to #9 in the country in the latest CFP rankings. They’re climbing in my own power ratings as well. After last week’s 63-17 dismantling of TCU (a bad call by me), the Pokes are also the #9 team in the country by my estimation. But covering eight consecutive games is pretty ridiculous. With Bedlam (Oklahoma game) on deck, I (again) think it’s a good time to fade Mike Gundy’s team. This time I’ll be right.

For the second straight week, OSU faces a team fresh off an upset. This week it’s Texas Tech, who last week downed Iowa State 41-38 here in Lubbock, as a 12.5-point underdog. That win made the Red Raiders bowl eligible (first time since ‘15) as they continue to play for an interim HC (Sonny Combie) following the surprising dismissal of Matt Wells last month. A permanent successor, Baylor associate HC Joey McGuire, has already been hired but will not take over the reins until after the season. 

Combie got his first win in the most dramatic way possible, on a 62-yard field goal as time expired. It was the second upset for Texas Tech in Big 12 play (also won at West Virginia). Keep an eye on QB Donovan Smith, who made his 1st career start against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The Red Raiders are 6-2-2 ATS their L10 times as an underdog here in Lubbock and they’ve covered five straight meetings, all as underdogs, against Oklahoma State. Twice they pulled the outright upset. 8* Texas Tech.