10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. 

By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. 

Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama

10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. 

When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new.

The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints

8* Washington (8:15 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Tampa Bay is a big road favorite here, which is actually NOT a great spot historically as the only three previous road teams to be favored by six or more all lost outright, including the now infamous 2010 Saints, who were facing a 7-9 division winner (Seattle) that no one thought “deserved” to make the playoffs. 

Washington is only 7-9 and we all (rightfully) mocked how bad the NFC East was this year. But the truth of the matter is that the Football Team is better than its record. They had a +6 point differential in the regular season, which is better than two other playoff teams - Chicago & Cleveland. Also, they were 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in starts made by Alex Smith, who hasn’t been an underdog of more than seven points since guiding the Chiefs to an upset win in New England back in Week 1 of the 2017 season. The last two 7-9 (SU) teams to make the playoffs both won in the Wild Card Round.

This is the Saturday night game and let’s not forget Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in primetime this season. They lost (outright) to the Bears, Saints (badly) and the Rams. The only primetime win was by two points against the Giants, Washington’s division rival. I believe the Football Team has the kind of defense (tremendous front four) that can give Tom Brady trouble. Plus, Brady’s best receiver (Mike Evans) may not even play (‘gametime call’). This Washington defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed and #3 in scoring. The Football Team’s last five losses have all been by seven points or less. 8* Washington

8* LA Rams (4:40 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. While the QB situation is in flux, I don’t think most are aware of just how good this Rams defense is or the fact the team’s YPP (yards per play) differential is among the very best in the league this season. I’m taking the points here. 

This Rams’ defense led the league in both scoring (18.5 PPG) and yards allowed (282.1 per game) this season. They were also #1 against the pass. Opposing offenses scored a TD on only 16% of their possessions during the regular season. While you may think Seattle QB Russell Wilson is set “to cook” here, you better think again as he went just 2 of 16 on passes of 30+ yards the final eight reg season games, including 1 of 6 vs. the Rams, who are the best in the league at limiting such completions (just 14.8%). Wilson has NOT thrown for more than 200 yards in any of the L3 games, a stretch which has seen the Seahawks get outgained, something that was the case over the course of the season as well! 

The more interesting battle here seems to be whomever the Rams QB is vs. the improved Seattle defense. Rams HC Sean McVay won’t announce whether its going to be Jared Goff or John Wolford until right before kickoff, but obviously he and the team knows. Seattle doesn’t, which is an obvious disadvantage. The Seahawks’ defense went from being the worst in the league over the first eight games to the best over the final eight games, which is quite the transformation. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Most Seahawks’ games end up being close, so I like the points with a Rams team that has covered four of its last five as a road dog of three points or less. 8* LA Rams

10* Indianapolis (1:05 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Did you know the Colts were an underdog just ONE time during the regular season? That was when they were +1 in Cleveland of all places. They are the ONLY team in the league that wasn’t +3 or higher in any game in 2020. 

Buffalo comes into the playoffs red-hot, having won six straight (all by 10 pts or greater) and 9 of their last 10. Their only loss in those L10 games came on the now-famous “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their L8 games, which is the longest ATS win streak entering the postseason since the 2011 Saints. Only three teams in history have carried a longer ATS win streak into the postseason and all of them came prior to 1995, which is the last time the Bills franchise won a playoff game. While the Bills are deservedly big favorites to win here, there’s a lot of pressure on them in what is their first home playoff game since ‘96. 

I don’t think most people fully appreciate how good this Colts team is. They played just one bad game all season (vs. Tennessee) and that was when they had a number of key defensive players out. This defense is top 10 in the league in both scoring and yards, having spent a majority of the year at/near the top. QB Rivers is 6-2 ATS in his career as a playoff underdog, including 4-0 when getting seven or more points. I think this spread should be several points lower and the Colts are absolutely capable of winning outright. They’ve won six of eight and in one of those losses (Pittsburgh) they blew a DD lead. Buffalo’s top two receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are both dealing w/ injuries. 10* Indianapolis

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): Realistically, Seattle (11-4) doesn’t have much to play for here, so I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points on the road in Week 17. Yes, they still do have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage and the NFC’s #1 seed, but that would require not only a win, but losses by BOTH Green Bay & New Orleans. The latter part of that equation is rather unlikely. Some “scoreboard watching” could lead to the Seahawks potentially “shutting it down” in the second half, making the points look even more attractive in this NFC West matchup.

San Francisco proved last week that they are not going down without a fight in 2020. I took them as a dog against the Cardinals and they delivered an outright win over a team fighting for its playoff life. Since the start of last season, the 49ers are now 9-3 ATS as underdogs with eight outright victories. Three of their six SU wins this season have come against the division (2 vs. LA, 1 vs. ARI) and there is nothing more that they’d like to do here than beat a team they have struggled mightily against ever since Jim Harbaugh left. Since 2012, the Niners are just 4-14 ATS vs. the Seahawks.

This seems like a really nice value on SF considering they were just a 1-point underdog up in Seattle back in Week 8. They lost that game 37-27, but still I can’t see justifying the spread getting this much bigger on the road. Seattle has failed to cover five straight away from home and seven of their wins this season have come in one possession games. I know that it’s a “raw deal” for the Niners having to play their “home games” in Arizona and they’ve yet to win as the “home team” here. But they did just win on this field last Saturday. This will be their 4th time playing here in the last 5 weeks. As I said last week, the Niners are better than their record as they’ve outgained opponents on the season. CJ Beathard is a better QB than Nick Mullens, especially with TE George Kittle back on the field. 10* San Francisco

9* Houston (4:25 ET): The 4-11 Texans have been relegated to spoilers here, but don’t expect them to “tank it” against a hated division rival that they could potentially knock out of the playoffs. Also, Houston does not have any Draft incentive being that they’ve already traded away next year’s 1st round pick (big mistake!). DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt are still both on this team and seven of the Texans’ losses this season have come in one-score games. I expect them to remain competitive at home on Sunday and this is an inflated line due to the Titans needing to win the game (my power ratings say the line should be +3.5).

We know about Tennessee's success since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (20-4-1 ATS!), but they got drilled last Sunday night up in Green Bay. That 40-14 defeat sets up a scenario where the Titans basically must win to get in the playoffs/win the AFC South. A loss would be devastating as the Colts (also 10-5 SU) are hosting Jacksonville and will almost certainly win that game. Oddsmakers are well aware of the situation and have inflated this number knowing the public will want to bet the team in the “must-win” spot.

Something to remember is that these teams went to overtime in Tennessee back in Week 6. The Titans were very lucky to cover the spread in that game as they scored a TD (rather than kick a FG) to win 42-36 as a 3.5-point favorite. Now they are an even larger favorite on the road, so there’s obvious value to be had here with a Houston team that is 14-7 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2010. Something else worth noting is that Houston has outgained its opponents this season while Tennessee has not. The Titans are rarely road favorites of this size, which helps explain the ridiculous ATS record. Take the points. 9* Houston

8* Chicago (4:25 ET): Green Bay has seemingly defied regression this season and is now in position to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They looked incredibly impressive last week on SNF, destroying a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau Field. Last year’s Packers went 13-3, but had a point differential of only +63. They benefited from an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU record in one-score games. I thought that record in close games virtually guaranteed fewer wins this season (it usually does), but here we are with the Pack at 12-3 heading into the final game of the season, which finds them favored in Chicago. 

The Bears are just looking to make the playoffs, something that admittedly seemed very far-fetched a month ago. But a 3-game win streak that has seen them average 36.7 PPG has them in control of their own destiny. A win here would clinch a playoff berth. Now beating the Packers has been a problem for Matt Nagy’s team, who lost 41-25 in Lambeau the Sunday after Thanksgiving. But since then, with Mitch Trubisky back in at QB, this has been a different offense/team. The Bears’ offense has put up 30+ points in four consecutive games, something they hadn’t done going back to the 1960’s! 

My prediction of WL regression for the Packers can still hold true with a loss here. That piqued my interest a bit. So did the way the line has moved this week. There can be no denying that the Bears are a much different team than they were the first go-around with Green Bay. While the Packers will be motivated to earn the 1st round bye, the Bears won’t be lacking for motivation either. Trubisky is trying to earn a new contract, Nagy is trying to save his job and the team is trying to get into the playoffs by beating a rival they are 3-18 SU against in the L21 meetings. Take the points with the home dog here. Green Bay just lost its starting LT to a season-ending injury on Thursday, which is certainly significant. 8* Chicago

10* Iowa State (4:00 ET): Oregon is a team that should feel pretty fortunate to even be in the Fiesta Bowl as they only got to play for the Pac 12 Championship because Washington had to back out due to COVID-19 concerns. Making the most of their opportunity, the Ducks upset unbeaten USC in that penultimate game, 31-24 as a three-point underdog. However, don’t let that one win fool you. Oregon was very much a shaky team in the regular season and I successfully faded them twice - their two SU losses (to Oregon State and Cal). They were not all that impressive in their first three wins either.

A win here for Iowa State would not only be an “exclamation point” on the job Matt Campbell has done in Ames, but also perhaps the program’s most notable bowl win EVER. So I don’t think motivation is going to be a problem for the Cyclones, who are coming off a tight 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where they were -3 in turnover margin, but outgained the favored Sooners. Iowa State is simply much better than any team Oregon has faced this year as the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 12, at least at the top. I’ve got four Big 12 teams, ISU being one, rated above every Pac 12 team in my personal power ratings. 

Oregon has had success as an underdog in the bowls previous to this, but Iowa State is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017 and 4-1 ATS its last five games as a favorite. Plus, I think the Cyclones are going to be the hungrier side come Saturday and I’m not talking Tostitos (old sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl). Major edge at QB for ISU with Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall should gash an Oregon defense that allowed a ton of rush yards when it faced Oregon State RB Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks may be without their top RB (Vardell), which would not be good facing the #10 ranked run defense in the country. 10* Iowa State

8* Ole Miss (12:30 ET): Some of the same trends I discussed for Auburn-Northwestern apply here. Whether or not Auburn covers (this is being written on New Year’s Day), I will follow the trends here for Ole Miss-Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. So I’m taking the points with the Rebels. 

Indiana went 7-0 ATS in the regular season, the best such mark in the entire country. But they haven’t played a game since December 5th and will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. In two games without Penix, the IU offense has managed just 115 and 130 yards passing. I can’t say that Ole Miss has a stout defense, but not facing Penix is a break. There’s a lot of talk about the Hoosiers having a “chip on their shoulder” here as they felt they should have been selected for the Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve also lost their last five bowl games, not having won one since 1991.

Ole Miss has its starting QB Matt Corral, who threw for nearly 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns in the regular season. Corral won’t have his two top WRs here, but he didn’t have them in the regular season finale vs. LSU either and the Rebels still scored 48 points. This was the SEC’s third best scoring offense (40.7 PPG) and they led the conference in rushing (217.7 YPG). Indiana saw only one good offense this year, Ohio State, and gave up 42 points in that game. The Rebels faced a much harder schedule and will be motivated here for their first bowl since 2016 and first under Lane Kiffin. 8* Ole Miss

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Coming into this College Football season, it seemed as if three teams stood above the rest: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Those names shouldn’t be too surprising seeing as those three schools have combined to win five of the six College Football Playoffs (LSU last year was the only exception). Sure enough all three schools are back in the CFP this year and #3 Ohio State will play #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of last year’s semi final, which took place in the Orange Bowl.

You’re likely to hear a LOT about LY’s Orange Bowl in the build to this game. I know I remember it as the Buckeyes were my 10* Bowl Game of the Year and raced out to a 16-0 lead in less than 25 minutes. But they ended up losing 29-23 and not covering as 2.5-point underdogs, thus dropping to 0-4 SU all-time vs. Clemson, two of those losses coming in CFP semis. For this year’s rematch, it seems as if Ohio State is really being “written off.” I don’t understand that as this remains a supremely talented team and revenge is obviously a major factor. 

The Buckeyes didn’t exactly face a tough regular schedule this year, but they still won all six games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. They were dealing with massive attrition from COVID-19 (22 players out) in the Big 10 Championship Game when they “only” beat Northwestern 22-10. HC Ryan Day has said he expects “a good number” of those players who sat out the Big 10 Champ Game to play here. Meanwhile, Clemson just announced it will be without OC Tony Elliott (COVID) for this game. Elliott is the play-caller. Look, I’m not going to say that the Tigers shouldn’t be favored here. But the line should not be more than a field goal. Take the points. 8* Ohio State

10* Auburn (1:00 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Yes, I’m aware that Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Championship Game (where they led Ohio St at the half) while Auburn had a 4-loss regular season. But both were 6-win teams and you simply can’t discount the Big 10 vs. SEC factor here. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. The SEC is 7-1 SU L8 Citrus Bowls. I’m taking the points on New Year’s Day.

N’western is 7-1 ATS this season, which is the 2nd best cover percentage in the nation (trailing only Indiana & San Jose St, both of whom didn’t have a single ATS loss). But this will mark just the third time in 15 bowl games that the Wildcats will be favored (they are 4-10 SU all-time in bowls). That one ATS loss this season came in an outright loss to Michigan State, who was not a good team. The majority of wins were both close and fortunate. The Wildcats were outgained on a per play in the regular season, so they were extremely fortunate to go 6-2 SU. They won three games in which they were outgained. In two of those three wins, they were outgained by 100+ yards!

Auburn should be thrilled to get away from the SEC gauntlet as they are 6-1 ATS their L7 non-conference games. Of course, the biggest news here is that Gus Mahlzan was shockingly fired after the regular season and replaced with former Boise St HC Bryan Harsin. DC Kevin Steele will be the interim coach for the bowl game. Steele’s defense should have a strong game here against an anemic N’western offense that averages less than 300 YPG away from home. Three of Auburn’s four losses this year were to Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia, all top 10 teams. I still consider the Tigers a top 25 team. They don’t turn the ball over (only 8 all season!) and that’s key vs. a N’western D that forced almost 2.0 TOs per game. 10* Auburn

8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. 

Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. 

Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia

10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here.

San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role.

Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State

10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. 

I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. 

Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma

10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. 

Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. 

Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas

10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). 

Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! 

New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England

8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season.

You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993.

I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots

8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. 

Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. 

Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers

10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! 

That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over.  But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference.

Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks

UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 

8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. 

I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. 

The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. 

The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. 

Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets

9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now.

What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league.

Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders

10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here.

Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. 

While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco.

10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. 

The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. 

Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota

10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. 

I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. 

So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall

8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record.

Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes.

This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points!

Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” 

 You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. 

Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. 

This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals

10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU).

Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite.

In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal.

For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. 

Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. 

The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable.

A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta

9* Miami (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. 

So much has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB and he’s led his team to a 4-2 WL record. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites this season and now they get to play host. The Patriots are just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and one of those SU wins was by three against the Jets. I know all about Belchick’s record vs. rookie QBs (11-0 since 2012), but this isn’t the same NE team. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and the Patriots are 0-3 ATS when playing with more than six days off between games. So much for rest. Miami is better and deserves to be favored. 9* Miami

8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams.

A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins

8* Washington (1:00 ET): So Washington is forced to start Dwayne Haskins this week as Alex Smith is injured. That’s a bit of a bummer for a team that has really come into its own of late with four consecutive wins and covers. I believe this is the team that will win the moribund NFC East. Were Smith starting here, I would make Washington the favorite here. They beat Pittsburgh (who was unbeaten at the time) on the road two weeks ago and it’s not like Seattle is immune from a shocking loss. Two weeks ago, they fell at home to the Giants, 17-12 as 12.5-point chalk. 

The Seahawks rebounded from that upset loss by smashing the Jets 40-3 last week. But that doesn’t really affect our view of Russell Wilson and company. Everybody beats the Jets. As good as Wilson and the Seahawks’ defense has looked this season, they’re up against a defense that’s allowed a total of just 57 points the last four games. That’s just over 14.0 per game as rookie Chase Young has looked phenomenal of late for the Football team. Seattle’s RT Brandon Snell has been in and out of the lineup recently, so protecting Wilson could be an issue here. 

Washington’s offense actually gained less than 200 total yards last week, but they still won 23-15 against San Francisco. While not a “true” road win (was played in Arizona), they’ll take it. Seattle is just 3-3 SU on the road this season and almost all of their games (save for LW) end up being close. Going back to the start of last season, 17 of the Seahawks’ 21 victories have been by one possession! They’ve been outgained this year. The Football Team’s defense will carry Haskins and keep this one closer than expected. The Seahawks have failed to cover four straight road games and are 0-3 ATS L3 as a road favorite. 8* Washington

8* Florida (8:00 ET): Fading Florida proved quite fruitful for me last week as the Gators went out and lost outright (as 23.5-point favorites) to LSU. Blame the ill-timed throwing of the shoe all you want, but it was not a great all-around effort by Dan Mullen’s team and the loss definitely took some of the “shine” off the SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama. But that’s precisely how I like it! Now, no one is giving Florida a chance, despite the fact they are the #7 ranked team in the country and their two losses this year have been by a combined six points. While I don’t anticipate another outright win here, I am definitely taking the points. 

Now we ought to give Alabama their due. The top-ranked Crimson Tide mowed their way through the regular season, winning all 10 games by an average of almost 33 PPG. Lost in the middle of the pandemic is the fact this team is probably one of Nick Saban’s most dominant EVER at Tuscaloosa. But this is a LOT of points to be laying when you’re facing a good team and everybody expects you to win. Florida has been an underdog only one other time this season and it was when they annihilated Georgia (on a neutral field) 44-28. The Gators have put up at least 31 points in every game this season. 

Furthermore, Florida is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off an SEC loss under Mullen. I mentioned a similar trend for LSU under Ed Orgeron last week. Look, there’s probably nothing I can say to convince you that the Gators have a chance of winning this game. But they certainly can keep it close. Other than Texas A&M, who they faced early in the season and at home, Bama played a fairly weak SEC schedule. After so many covers in a row (7-0 ATS L7), isn’t at least one close game in store? Both of Bama’s non-covers came away from home this year. They haven’t faced Florida since the 2016 SEC Title Game and Heisman frontrunner Kyle Trask is good enough to keep this one within striking distance. 8* Florida

10* Denver (4:30 ET): I have to concede that the Broncos are NOT one of my favorite teams this season. They are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year and they’ve got the 5th worst point differential. Only the Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars and Jets - who are a collective 7-44-1 SU - have been outscored by a larger margin this season. That being said, this would seem like a prime opportunity to “sell high” on the Bills as they are coming off a win over the Steelers and 5-0 ATS their L5 games. Despite that ATS win streak, my power rankings indicate this line should be +3.5. 

I was NOT as high on Buffalo as most were coming into this season. I’ll admit that I was wrong in that regard as this very much looks like a legit contender in the AFC right now. But in terms of point differential, the Bills remain outside the top ten (in the league) and have benefited by going 5-1 SU in one-score games. They still don’t really have the statistical profile you’d expect from a 10-3 team. What they have done is handle their business at home (5-0 SU when favored). But on the road, they are just 1-3 ATS when favored.

The Broncos are 0-6 ATS against the Bills since 2007, but this is the first time they’ll face them with Drew Lock as the starting QB. Lock is 10-5 ATS in his NFL career, leading Denver to cash in each of his L3 starts. After leading a near upset of Kansas City two weeks ago, Lock had his best game as a pro vs. Carolina last week as he had a 4-0 TD-INT ratio in the 32-27 victory. This team is simply much better with Lock under center. I know the Denver defense has some serious issues at CB right now, but they remain #1 in the league in red zone efficiency and should stymie Buffalo enough to keep this one within the number. 10* Denver

9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one.

Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. 

 What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame

10* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): It was back on October 10th that I wrote the following: “The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward.” It was time to fade the Bulldogs that day and sure enough they lost 24-2 to Kentucky. It’s been all downhill since in Starkville with the only victory coming against perennial SEC pasty Vanderbilt (who has fired its HC). Mike Leach’s first season is guaranteed to be a losing one (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS entering Saturday), but I would caution about writing them off Saturday at home vs. Missouri. 

Missouri was actually ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings last week, which I found to be quite curious. The Tigers barely crack my own Top 50 and sure enough they went out and got whipped 49-14 by Georgia last week. Now that’s a good team Mizzou was up against, but that’s precisely the point. The Tigers’ “best” win this season was probably LSU, same as Mississippi State. They have more wins than the Bulldogs, but (like Miss St) the only dominant one was against Vandy. Three have been by seven points or less. 

Mississippi State has had all sorts of problems on offense this year, but facing a Mizzou defense that has given up 35 or more points six times this season might be “what the doctor ordered.” The last two weeks have seen the Tigers give up a total of 97 points! Up front, the Mizzou defense has been decimated by injuries.While they did win the only other time they were road favorites, that was against a South Carolina team (17-10) playing for a lame duck head coach. This is the first time in four games that the Tigers are playing away from home. They’ve yet to score more than 17 in any of their three previous road games. 10* Mississippi State

8* Washington State (1:30 ET): In any other College Football season, a matchup like this would likely go a long way in determining bowl assignments. But as you know, 2020 has been no normal year. There seems to be no shortage of “breaking news” these days in this sport, and on Friday, Utah announced that they would not be accepting any bowl bids. Washington State has already indicated the same thing. Thus, this will likely be the last time we see either of these teams this year. Utah laying double digits in a game where they may not be all that motivated seems highly questionable. I’ll take the points. 

Utah started out 0-2, but actually played pretty well in losing efforts vs. USC and Washington. They blew a 21-point lead against the latter. Turning the ball over a total of nine times in those two games also played a large role in losing. So I’m not surprised to see that the Utes have turned things around some with B2B wins, against Oregon State and Colorado. But they did get to face OSU w/o its star RB and starting QB. That seems like a pretty big advantage, yet the Utes won by only six in a game they returned a punt for a touchdown. Last week at Colorado, they trailed by 11 in the first half before turning it on after halftime for a 38-21 win and cover. 

Washington State has only gotten to take the field a total of three times this season. Last week’s game vs. Stanford was called off 90 minutes before kickoff. So the Cougars’ only game in the last month was an ugly 38-13 loss at USC, which was actually played on a Sunday. QB Jayden de Laura, who looked very sharp in the team’s first two games, did not play well against USC. I expect him to bounce back here. He’s completed 60% of his passes and the Wazzu rushing attack could be a lot better if Max Borghi is able to finally suit up. His replacement (Deon McIntosh) hasn’t been too shabby either, averaging 6.5 YPC vs. USC. 8* Washington State

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Texas A&M certainly has a lot at stake here. Currently #5 in the CFP rankings, the Aggies are first in line to move up if any of the top four stumble. If #2 Notre Dame were to defeat #3 Clemson later on Saturday, then the Tigers would almost certainly fall from the top four (would be their 2nd loss to ND). So the world is going to be on A&M here in Knoxville with the belief that “style points” matter. They really don’t though and a “dirty little secret” is that the Aggies have just ONE win by more than 13 points all season and that was against a South Carolina team that was eight days away from firing its HC. 

Two weeks ago, Tennessee gave me a nice win here at home vs. Florida, sliding right in through the backdoor. Though they were pretty thoroughly outplayed that day, the Volunteers hung in there with one of the better teams in the country. That coupled with last week’s 42-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt (snapped a six-game losing streak) MAY be enough to save HC Jeremy Pruitt’s job, but that’s far from certain. Pruitt definitely cannot afford a blowout loss here in the home finale. The “good news” is that the Vols’ last three losses have all come by 13 points or fewer. 

I know that A&M is perfect as a road favorite (5-0 ATS) under HC Jimbo Fisher and they’ve got something to play for here. But the number is definitely inflated and I’m taking the points. The Aggies have failed to cover all three times they’ve been double digit chalk this season and are a horrific 1-15 ATS off a bye (last week’s game vs. Ole Miss was cancelled). The Aggies’ offense has failed to impress me at times this season and the Tennessee defense has played a lot better of late, especially against the run as they’re giving up only 1.5 YPC the L2 weeks. 8* Tennessee

8* Ball State (7:30 ET): Buffalo put the finishing touches on a perfect 5-0 regular season last Saturday with a 56-7 thrashing of Akron. The Bulls had already been declared MAC East Champs prior to that game, so it’s pretty impressive that they were able to go out and still dominate by such an overwhelming margin. Of course, it helps when you’re facing Akron. That’s kind of my view on Buffalo as a whole in 2020. Their resume looks really impressive, but when you consider they’ve faced Northern Illinois, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Kent St and Akron, 5-0 comes across more as “yeah, that BETTER be their WL record.” 

Ball State has played one more game than Buffalo, but also brings a 5-game win streak into Friday’s MAC Championship Game. The Cardinals lost the season opener to Miami OH (blew a DD lead in the 2H), but has been perfect ever since. While four of those wins were by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog like they are here. Ball State’s regular season schedule was much tougher than Buffalo’s as the last three weeks have seen the Cardinals defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan, two of those games coming on the road. 

The MAC Title Game, as per usual, is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The conventional wisdom here seems to be that Buffalo is - by far - the best team in the MAC. But when 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I’m not willing to co-sign that. Though Ball State will play without RB Caleb Huntley (opted out), they are more than capable of making a game of this. They have covered six straight as an underdog and I believe Buffalo is overvalued due to getting some national coverage for a 70-point game against Kent State a few weeks ago. Ball State is better than any team Buffalo has faced this season. 8* Ball State

10* UAB (7:00 ET): Though this is the Conference USA Championship Game, it’s hardly a great “spot” for favored Marshall. Two week ago, the “bubble burst” in the Thundering Herd’s unbeaten season and it happened in one of the unlikeliest of ways, a 20-0 home loss to Rice. Ending up as the top “Group of 5” team is no longer in play, so motivation may be an issue here even though it's a Conference Championship Game. UAB is in its third straight C-USA Title Game (won ‘18, lost ‘19) and is arguably the better team here. Take the points. 

 You’ve got two strong defenses here and on what’s going to be a chilly night in Huntington, points are likely to be at a premium. That makes the underdog all the more attractive in this scenario. Remember that Rice was without its starting QB when it upset Marshall. Of course, offense was the bigger issue for the Thundering Herd that day as they were shutout on the scoreboard and turned the ball over five times. It’s notable that a week later UAB beat Rice 21-16.

UAB comes in at 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. While they’ve been poor at the betting window, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is that they played a number of games with a backup QB. Starter Tyler Johnston III is now back. Also, two of the Blazers’ three losses this season were by four points or less. The other was at Miami FL in a Thursday night game early in the season. Since then, the defense has allowed more than 24 points in just one game and that came in an OT loss where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Not sure home field advantage means much in 2020 and then you’ve got the fact Marshall is just 6-13 ATS its L19 home games. 10* UAB

10* LA Chargers (8:25 ET): From the oddsmakers perspective, the Chargers “should” have a better won-loss record than the Raiders this year. LA has been favored in six games while Las Vegas has been the chalk in only four. The Chargers’ main problem, which is nothing new, has been a failure to win close games. They are just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less, though they did prevail in one last week 20-17 against Atlanta. While the Bolts have yet to win as an underdog this year and last won a division game in 2018, the close win last week gives me belief they can pull through here. Take the points. 

The Raiders’ recent form has been lousy with their only win in the L4 games coming by three points against the 0-13 Jets. If you recall, I faded them in that spot. They would have lost the game outright had it not been for the ineptitude of (now fired) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams. Speaking of bad defense, the Raiders have given up an average of 37.5 PPG these L4 weeks! Sunday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 40 points and the Colts also rolled up 200+ yards rushing AND passing. The Chargers have one of the league’s better offenses as they are top 10 in total yards and #4 in passing. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers have outgained their opponents this season. 

The first time these AFC West rivals met very much embodied the kind of season it’s been for LA. They outgained the Raiders 440-320, yet lost on the scoreboard 31-26 when the potential GW TD was overturned. QB Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and should do so again here. The Chargers’ YTD point differential is quite comparable to the Raiders despite the disparate records. You have to figure that “elusive” division victory is coming soon for the Chargers and I say “why not here?” as this line should be read as a huge warning signal about the Raiders, who have failed to cover the L2 times they’ve been favored. 10* LA Chargers

10* Cleveland (8:15 ET): While I remain HIGHLY skeptical of the Browns’ long-term fortune, due to a -15 point differential and 6-0 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!), I’ve got them here as a home dog vs. the Ravens on MNF. Certainly many are going to point to the way Baltimore dismantled the Browns back in Week 1. However, that 38-6 win and cover (as 7-pt favorites) seems like “forever ago” and the Ravens simply have not been as dominant in 2020 as they were a season ago. You’ll want to take the points here.

Baltimore had lost three in a row (all by 6 points or less) before beating a Dallas team that put up little effort on Tuesday. I don’t think we should put much stock in a win over the Cowboys at this point. The Browns aren’t the Cowboys, that’s for sure. Last week saw Baker Mayfield play perhaps the best half of his NFL career, leading his team to a ridiculous 38-7 halftime advantage. The final score of 41-35 is misleading to say the least as the Titans scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes.

Mayfield had a career-high 4 TDs in the 1H last week. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Odell Beckham Jr was lost to a season-ending injury. That was six games ago and Mayfield had an 11-0 TD-INT ratio since the Beckham injury. The Browns have not trailed in three of their last four games and the one they did (Jacksonville) saw them down for only a brief time. This will be Baltimore’s third game in 12 days and second in a row on a short week. We saw how Pittsburgh looked last night in the same scenario. 10* Cleveland

9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the Steelers. That may sound strange considering this team has lost just one time all season. But that loss occurred last Monday, the same day Buffalo ended its long MNF losing streak with a 34-24 victory against San Francisco. The Steelers have certainly underwhelmed of late, not just with loss to Washington last Monday, but also with a less than stellar showing against what amounted to the Ravens’ backups two weeks ago. But they are 11-1, have one of the best defenses in football and should NOT be an underdog here.

My power ratings were more in step with the lookahead line for this game, which had the Steelers as slight favorites. Shortly after the MNF results came in, the line quickly “jumped the fence” with the Bills now favored. I don’t buy it. Despite being 9-3, Buffalo doesn’t even have a top 10 point differential. Five of their wins have been in one-score games and remember that the 49ers team they just defeated was playing a lot of backups and the game WASN’T in San Francisco. The Bills are 1-7 ATS playing on a short week since 2016. 

Lots of other trends favor the road team here. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning record. He is on a 10-2 ATS run as an underdog of any kind with eight outright wins. Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second best such record in the league. While Buffalo has covered four straight themselves, their pass-happy offense doesn’t figure to fare so well against what is probably the best pass defense in the entire league. The L3 weeks have seen the Steelers allow an average of just 247.7 YPG. 9* Pittsburgh

10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so.

New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. 

So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): So the thought process here is pretty simple. Unless they’re playing the Jets, Dallas should not be a favorite against anybody, let alone on the road. America’s Team has really underperformed in Mike McCarthy’s first season, going a league-worst 2-10 ATS. Obviously, Cowboys’ fans can point a finger to the Dak Prescott injury, but the team was already struggling before the QB was lost for the season. McCarthy was a terrible hire and the Cowboys’ three wins this year have come by a combined seven points, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, take the points here.

The Bengals also lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury and it may be a long-time before we see Joe Burrow again. That’s too bad because Cincinnati was pretty competitive with Burrow under center. While the immediate future may not be looking too rosy in Cincy, the team has remained competitive even without its rookie QB. Two weeks ago, I took them and they covered in a 2-point loss to the Giants. Last week saw them hang in against the 8-4 Dolphins, even taking a 7-6 lead into halftime. The team is 6-2 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss and now they are back home where they’ve covered four in a row. 

The big story of this game will be Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. But for me, it’s the opportunity to play against Dallas as a favorite. The ‘Boys have been favored five times this season and are 0-5 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. This is the just the 2nd time they’ve been favored since the Prescott injury (lost 41-16 to Washington on Thanksgiving). The run defense (167.8 YPG allowed) is the worst the league has seen in a decade and just gave up almost 300 yards to Baltimore last week. That game was on Tuesday and the Cowboys are 3-15 ATS since 2012 when playing w/ six or fewer days' rest. The Bengals defense has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and the team has three losses by a FG or less. 8* Cincinnati

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): That 5-1 start is a distant memory for the Bears, who have now lost six straight. The future of HC Matt Nagy in the Windy City is very much in doubt, even though he took this team to a division championship just two years ago. But at least he has Mitchell Trubisky! Wait, what? While Bears fans are probably still salty the team chose Trubisky instead of the opposing QB this week (DeShaun Watson), they can rest easy knowing the team has averaged a solid 25.8 PPG in Trubisky starts this season. As much as the Bears have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, they’re better with Trubisky under center and facing a terrible defense this week. 

Houston’s season has gone very differently than Chicago, though both now sport similar records. The Texans opened 0-4 with three of those losses coming to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City. They’re 4-4 SU since the 0-4 start, but two of the wins were against Jacksonville. As I already mentioned, the Texans defense - even with JJ Watt - is abysmal. They are 30th in both yards allowed and efficiency. Losing a heartbreaker at home to Indianapolis last week (fumbled inside the Colts’ 5-yard line on the potential go-ahead drive) does this team no favors. 

I have these rated pretty evenly, so even with the Bears’ struggles over the last two months, I don’t think they should be an underdog at home this week. Houston isn’t just 4-8 SU, they are also 4-8 ATS. The Bears’ defense has been bad the L2 weeks, but the Texans offense just lost WR Will Fuller to a suspension and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable with foot and neck injuries. Four of the Bears’ last five games have been decided by one possession, so the fact they’ve lost all of them is a case of bad luck. This is a winnable game. 8* Chicago

8* Miami (1:00 ET): No one seems to take the Dolphins very seriously, despite their 8-4 SU record. Normally, I’d also be skeptical of a team with that record if they’ve been outgained on a per game/play basis like the ‘Fins have. But did you know that Miami has the FOURTH best point differential in the league this season (+91!)? They were my 10* NFL Game of the Year back on November 1st and that ended up being an outright 28-17 win as three-point dogs against the Rams. This spot feels eerily similar.

Kansas City is one of three teams with a better YTD point differential than the Dolphins. But they’ve been far from dominant of late. Each of their last four wins have been by six points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. Those four wins have been by a total of 15 points and they’ve trailed at halftime in three of them. Last week, as a double digit home favorite, they trailed a bad Denver team for much of the first three quarters and scored just one offensive TD. 

While Miami’s offense is hardly explosive, they can lean on a defense that has produced a turnover in 18 consecutive games (longest active streak in the league) and allowed the second fewest points in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 10 total points in the L2 games and 21 or less in six of the last seven contests. They’ve covered six of those seven games and are a league-best 18-6 ATS since their Week 5 bye last season. This is a game the Dolphins very much can win and really need for their playoff hopes. Take the points. 8* Miami

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): It certainly hasn’t been a good year for UNLV. In fact, last week’s game vs. Boise State was probably for the best as the Rebels were quite likely to take a beating in that one. This is a team that’s already 0-5 SU (0-4-1 ATS) with every loss coming by at least 13 points. Because of that, you know that they’re going to be getting a ton of points every Saturday. This week though, it’s too many as the opponent just isn’t deserving of this price range. Take the points. 

Two weeks ago, I took Hawaii. It was here at home, but they were GETTING points. The opponent was Nevada, undefeated at the time, and the Warriors ended up pulling off a 24-21 outright win (were +7.5). Unfortunately, they were unable to sustain that momentum last week against San Jose State. That despite being dealt a major advantage in that the game was moved from San Jose to Honolulu (COVID). Hawaii lost 35-24 to fall to 3-4 SU on the year. They’ve been favored only twice in 2020 and failed to cover both times. One time they lost outright (at Wyoming). The other, they could only beat a winless New Mexico team by six here on the Island. 

Hawaii’s three wins this season have been by a total of 24 points. So you can see why I’d be so skeptical of laying so many points with them here. UNLV doesn’t want to finish the season winless (who would?), thus I expect a solid effort out of the underdog. The Rebels can control this game in the trenches as Hawaii is not particularly strong on either side along the offensive or defensive lines. At the very least, a Hawaii defense allowing more than 6.0 yards per play will keep the backdoor open. 8* UNLV

9* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Last year’s “Commonwealth Cup” was a rather sizable play for me. It was the day after Thanksgiving and my 10* College Football Game of the Year. I took Virginia, who had lost the previous 15 meetings, as a 2.5-point underdog. They won outright 39-30 thanks to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback (outscored Va Tech 19-3). Coming into this year, the two rivals are in much different form. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak and 5-0 ATS L5. Va Tech is on a 4-game losing streak while also going 0-4 ATS. 

For the first time in a LONG time, it “feels” like Virginia should be favored coming into this game. But it’s telling that they are not. Obviously, some of that has to do with the fact that the game is in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers have not won here since 1998 when they were ranked #16 in the country. Also, the entirety of UVA’s 4-game win streak has come in Charlottesville. One win was against a FCS foe. Last week they did beat Boston College for the 1st time ever, but the Eagles were without starting QB Phil Jurkovic and RB David Bailey. Despite this, the Hoos’ defense still allowed 32 points and 500+ yards. 

Almost all of those 500+ yards allowed came through the air. In fact, BC finished with -7 rush yards for the game after factoring in sack yardage. But Virginia Tech’s offense is #1 in the ACC in rushing yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 7.6 yards per carry. Hokies HC Justin Fuente may very be coaching for his job Saturday night. Three of the Hokies’ six losses this year have been by a TD or less. They actually played Clemson pretty tough (for a half) last week despite losing the turnover battle and QB Hooker (he’s fine now). Virginia has not won a road game all year. Don’t be fooled by the records, Va Tech is better. 9* Virginia Tech

10* LSU (7:00 ET): LSU is once again “making history” in 2020, only unlike last season it’s a rather DUBIOUS history. Last week saw them close as a 28.5-point underdog at home vs. Alabama. That was the largest spread ever for a defending National Champion and the Tigers promptly got blown out 55-17. This week vs. Florida makes them the first team EVER to begin a season ranked in the Top 10 and end up being a 20+ point underdog in two separate games. Needless to say, it’s been a fairly ugly “fall from grace” for HC Ed Orgeron, who rode Joe Burrow to a National Championship 11 months ago. 

While I didn’t want to jump in front of the Alabama train last weekend, I do think this spread is far too high. My own power ratings say it should be closer to a 2 TD spread. That’s a lot of value. I successfully faded Florida last Saturday as I thought they were far too big of a favorite in Knoxville. While they did outgain Tennessee pretty substantially, it ended up being a 31-19 final due to a competitive first half and late Volunteers’ touchdown. This will be the 2nd largest Florida-LSU spread ever and largest since 1994 when Florida didn’t cover. 

By beating Tennessee last weekend, Florida has clinched a spot in next week’s SEC Championship Game where they’ll get their crack at top ranked Alabama. So this is a classic lookahead spot for the Gators. Obviously, the lookahead line for this game was a lot lower, not just at the start of the season, but even just a few weeks ago. This number is a product of recency bias and I just can’t see LSU getting blown out again. They’ve got too much talent and Orgeron is still on a 6-1 SU run after an SEC loss, not to mention 6-3 ATS as a dog despite last week’s result. Take the points. 10* LSU

9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in  conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? 

Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. 

Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming

8* Troy (3:00 ET): It’s not hyperbole to say last week’s 22-17 win over BYU was the biggest achievement in the history of Coastal Carolina football. The Chanticleers are now 10-0 SU and heading to the Sun Belt Championship Game (next week vs. Louisiana), not to mention maybe some place bigger if they win the next two games. That they were able to beat BYU, as a 10-pt underdog, on such short notice deserves a tip of the cap. But what about this week’s game? It sure feels like a “sandwich spot” and that’s dangerous when laying double digits on the road to a decent team. 

Troy is just 5-5 SU on the year and a money-burning 2-8 ATS. But they are off perhaps their most complete effort of the season, a 29-0 shutout of South Alabama where the defense allowed just 239 total yards. Back in the season opener, I took the Trojans when they rolled to a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. In my analysis, I stated I expected this team to improve from last season when it finished just 5-7 SU (three straight 10+ win seasons before that). That hasn’t really materialized, but there’s been some extenuating circumstances. QB Watson has missed time with a rib injury, COVID has interrupted the schedule and there have been three losses by seven points or less.

I just think it is going to be very hard for Coastal Carolina to prevail here by double digits. In addition to the letdown/lookahead nature of the spot, they were actually outgained by BYU last week, 405-366. They needed a tackle at the goal line to win the game. Remember that the Chanticleers were not just picked to finish behind Troy this season, but also LAST in the entire Sun Belt. With Watson back in the lineup last week, Troy more closely resembled the team I expected at the start of this season. This game was originally supposed to be played on November 14th. It being moved to this week is more of an advantage to the home dog. Take the points. 8* Troy

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): I fully understand that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers have fallen short of expectations this season. Furthermore, the team has been hit hard by COVID with 40+ players/staff testing positive and the last two games getting cancelled as a result. As if that wasn’t rough enough, WR Rashod Bateman - arguably the best player on the team - has decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. That all being said, I just feel the number this week at Nebraska is way too high.

Nebraska has looked a lot better the last two weeks, particularly in last Saturday’s 37-27 win at Purdue. The week before, I took them and it was a pretty easy cover as double digit underdogs against Iowa. But this week will mark just the second time all season that the Cornhuskers have been favored to win a game. The first was three weeks ago vs. Illinois and they promptly lost that game - outright - as 17-point chalk. Given the ‘Huskers’ two wins this season are by a combined 17 points, and they were outgained substantially in one of those wins, this is not a good candidate to lay double digits with. 

The last four meetings of these Big 10 West rivals has seen the home team go 4-0. The last three years have all been decided victories. But Minnesota rarely gets blown out under Fleck. One of their three losses this year came by a single point. They too beat Purdue three weeks ago and save for the Iowa game, the offense has been quite productive (40+ pts in both road games). Even without Bateman, I expect the Gophers to score a decent amount here. They are 4-1 ATS L5 as a road underdog while Nebraska is just 1-5 ATS its L6 as a favorite. 8* Minnesota

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Wake Forest boasts an impressive 6-1 ATS record and I’ve been fortunate to cash in on them multiple times. The first time was in a 37-13 LOSS to Clemson. As you probably ascertained, the line for that game (season opener) was quite high. The next time was “more like it” (especially if you’re from Winston-Salem) as the Demon Deacons pulled an outright upset over Virginia Tech, 23-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Then I took them again vs. North Carolina, which ended up as a 59-53 loss, but they still covered +12.5. 

That North Carolina game seems like FOREVER ago, so I was surprised when I saw it’s the last game Wake Forest has played. It was nearly one month ago to the date. It’s actually the only game they’ve played since October! Despite the long layoff, I expect the team to play well here. The offense, led by QB Sam Hartman, is averaging 39.3 PPG this season. They’ve scored 40 or more four times. They led North Carolina by 21 in the second half. The only other loss besides that and Clemson was by three points to an 8-win NC State team. The Deacons could very easily be on a 6-game SU win streak heading into this game. 

Louisville has also been victimized by some close losses this season. They are 3-7 SU, but four of those losses have been by 7 points or less. Still that didn’t stop HC Scott Satterfield from exploring an offer to take the South Carolina job, which angered fans and I’m sure his players. Unlike Wake Forest, who hosts Florida State next week, this is Louisville’s final game. They are likely not going bowling and may not be too excited to play for a coach that just thought about leaving the program. All three L’ville wins this season have been against pretty bad teams. Don’t see them winning here against what I feel is one of the more underrated teams in the country. 8* Wake Forest

10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams.

Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. 

New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams

10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. 

Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. 

While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech

10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): The Chargers were “spared” what would have been yet another close loss last week as QB Justin Herbert was stuffed at the goal line on the final play. That cost me a cover though (would have been a 6-0 Sunday!). Thus it ended up being a 24-14 loss in Buffalo (I did cash the Under), dropping the Chargers to 3-8 SU on the year. They did outgain the Bills (ever so slightly), 367-332. Seven of those eight losses have been by eight points or less with four of them seeing LA blow a double digit lead! I realize you could say this most years, but the Chargers really are better than their record. 

The Patriots really had no business winning last week. The offense gained only 179 total yards at a pathetic 3.5 yards per play. This offense - with Cam Newton at the helm - just isn’t very good. Over the L8 weeks, New England has scored more than 23 points only one time and that was against the winless Jets. Though the market continues to show them respect (Belichick factor?), I think it’s important to realize the Pats are simply a below average football team right now. They’ve been outgained on the year - both per game and per play - and been outscored by 26 points. Newton has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio and will be missing his left tackle. 

Home field advantage may not mean much to the Chargers, especially this year, but they really should be at least a three-point favorite in this spot. This is a team that led the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints by double digits! The one bright spot of the season has been the play of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is averaging over 300 YPG. RB Austin Ekler returned last week and had 129 total yards. The Patriots defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st. “Now or never” (for the Chargers) might seem a bit hyperbolic, but after five straight ATS losses, they really should win here. 10* LA Chargers

8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right?

As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games.

Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers

9* Arizona (4:05 ET): When they were 5-2 SU, the Cardinals were looking like one of the real pleasant surprises in the league. I figured this would be an improved outfit in Kliff Kingsbury’s second season at the helm, but the last four weeks have been a bit concerning. The Cards have failed to cover four in a row and the lone SU win in that stretch came on a Hail Mary pass at home vs. Buffalo. Following a tough loss last week at New England, they return home this week and are underdogs in a key NFC West matchup.

The Rams are 7-4 SU, one game ahead of Arizona for second place in the division. They too are off a loss as they fell 23-20 at home to San Francisco. In looking at the Rams’ home vs. road splits, the one thing that becomes apparent is that their defense seems to “fail to travel.” They are giving up 23.3 PPG on the road, not a bad number, but it’s a lot more than the 15.0 PPG they’re allowing at home. As a road favorite, the Rams are just 1-2 SU/ATS this season. They are 3-5 SU/ATS L8 games as a road fave of 3 pts or less. Also, take away the four games against the sorry NFC East and the Rams are just 3-3 SU overall this year. 

Arizona should have beaten New England last week, but missed the potential game-winning FG with under two minutes to go. That allowed the Patriots to go kick the GW. The Cardinals’ defense allowed just 179 yards. While both of these offenses have had success running the football, Arizona is 1st in yards per carry while the Rams are only 18th. I vehemently disagreed with the way the line moved in LA’s favor early in the week and think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Cardinals, who will be quite eager to beat Rams HC Sean McVay for the first time in seven tries. 9* Arizona

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Yes, I’m taking the winless Jets (0-11) this week. My suspicions over Las Vegas were confirmed last week when they suffered an atrocious 43-6 loss in Atlanta. As someone who had the Falcons +3 and was quite confident about the bet, even I could not have fathomed that result. The game was never really competitive and the Raiders turning it over five times certainly didn’t help. Something I want to reiterate from last week is just how few times Las Vegas has been favored this season. This will be only the 4th time it's happened. They are lucky to be 6-5 SU considering they have a -27 pt differential. 

With so little positives emanating from the Jets’ side of things, this is obviously a clear fade on the Silver and Black. I just don’t think that the Raiders should be favored by this many points on the road, against anybody. This matchup is obviously the “litmus test” for that assessment, but it’s worth noting that my own personal power ratings say this spread should only be -2.5! This will be the first time the Raiders close as a road favorite of 7 pts or more since 2002, which was the year they went to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon as the MVP. That was a LONG time ago. 

Let’s try and pick out SOME positives with the Jets, shall we? RB Frank Gore should have a big game this week facing a suspect Raiders’ run defense. QB Sam Darnold, who has not thrown a TD pass in his last 19 quarters of action, is due. Before losing 20-3 to Miami last week, New York had covered three of four with losses to Buffalo, New England and the Chargers all coming by 8 points or fewer. With just one home game left after this week, this may be the Jets’ best shot at avoiding a winless season. No one wants to go 0-16, so I expect effort. Take the points. 8* NY Jets

9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring.

I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt.

Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings

8* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Gonna go ahead and fade Nevada in the late night spot again as the Wolf Pack showed last week they are not a good team to lay points with. They lost outright on “the Island” (Hawaii), 24-21, trailing for the entire second half. While it was their first loss of the season, three of Nevada’s five victories thus far have come in one possession games and they’ve hardly faced a daunting schedule. Despite the outright loss last week, my power ratings say the Wolf Pack remains overvalued. 

This will be Fresno State’s first game in three weeks. They come in as winners of three straight (also 3-0 ATS) as they’ve predictably bounced back a bit from LY’s disappointing 4-win campaign. (The previous two years saw the Bulldogs go 22-6 SU overall). Over the course of the current 3-game run, FSU has averaged 37.7 points and 486.7 yards. So them getting this many points seems like quite the ideal situation. They are on a 3-1 ATS run vs. Nevada and have won five of the last eight H2H meetings outright. 

Fresno has also played well on the road the last few years, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. They are 5-2 ATS the L7 times they’ve been an underdog, picking up three outright wins. These Mountain West rivals seem pretty evenly matched to me, so taking the points is a no brainer. Only two of Nevada’s games have been decided by more than two points and those were against UNLV and Utah State, who are a combined 1-10 SU. Something from last week’s analysis I’d like to reiterate is that Nevada’s third down conversion percentage and red zone efficiency are unlikely to be maintained. Fresno State’s defense does an excellent job at getting to the QB. 8* Fresno State

9* Baylor (8:00 ET): Since suffering B2B upset losses at the hands of Kansas State and Iowa State, #11 Oklahoma has really seized control of its destiny in the Big 12. The Sooners have rattled off five consecutive victories, averaging 50.2 PPG in the process. They’ve covered the spread in all five games as well. They were scheduled to go to Morgantown (West Virginia) last weekend, but that game had to be rescheduled for December 12th due to COVID. After such an impressive stretch, I’m not surprised to see OU a bit overvalued this week and don’t be surprised if they come out rusty after the unexpected week off. 

Baylor’s season has very much been the opposite of Oklahoma’s. They’ve won just one time since opening the season with a 47-14 win against lowly Kansas. But all five losses have been relatively close (by 11 pts or fewer) and the Bears did come from behind to down Kansas State last week, 32-31, as QB Charlie Brewer completed 80% of his pass attempts for 349 yards. Brewer also ran for 56 yards and was responsible for four touchdowns. One good sign for Baylor is that they’ve yet to lose the turnover battle in a single game this season and they’ve forced a total of eight turnovers in the L3 games. 

The Bears easily could have a better record than 2-5 SU as they’ve blown leads in three of their losses. That’s a far cry from last season when they were winning all the close games en route to an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game … vs. Oklahoma. They played OU tough in both meetings last year, losing by a total of just 10 points. Last week’s comeback should give them some much needed confidence and as good as Oklahoma has looked recently, they can’t keep performing at that level every Saturday. Baylor is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games and is 11-5-1 ATS L17 games as the underdog. 9* Baylor

10* California (7:00 ET): Oregon was a big-time fade (-13.5 @ Oregon State) on this end last week. Sure enough, they lost outright in Corvallis by a score of 41-38. I think the initial belief most bettors have when looking at a line like this is “the Ducks aren’t going to lose twice in a row.” But that can be a dangerous mindset to have, especially seeing just how shaky Oregon has been to this point. California, who is 0-3, comes in desperate here. Maybe they don’t follow in Oregon State’s “footsteps” and pull off the outright upset. But they’ll keep it close and at least cover the spread. Take the points. 

Cal isn’t as bad as its record. While they were blown out by UCLA (34-10) in the season opener, go ahead and write that result off as they played that one “impromptu” with a limited roster on a Sunday morning. Since then they’ve lost close to both Oregon State and Stanford, by a combined five points. They had the total yardage edge in both games and last week’s one-point loss to Stanford was BRUTAL as the Bears had the potential game-tying extra point BLOCKED in the final minute. This is a good number to be catching seeing as how Cal is 18-8 ATS as a dog (11 outright wins) under HC Justin Wilcox including 7-3 ATS when taking double digits (four outright wins). 

To all thinking “bounce back” (for Oregon) this week, a Ducks’ defense that gave up 532 yards to Oregon State should give you pause. In their last three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 35.0 points and 471.7 yards. In last year’s 17-7 win at Berkeley, the Ducks faced a Cal team that didn’t have starting QB Chase Garbers (injured). Garbers was 7-0 SU as the starter in 2019 and should have a “big game” here against the porous Oregon defense. Cal could easily be 2-1 SU right now while Oregon is lucky it isn’t 2-2 (as they were +4 in turnovers in a 38-35 win over UCLA two weeks ago). 10* California

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Tennessee comes into this game really “down in the dumps” as HC Jeremy Pruitt is firmly on the hot seat in Knoxville. An upset of #6 Florida would do wonders when it comes to saving Pruitt’s job. Not saying that’s going to happen Saturday, but taking the points is the way to go in this heated SEC rivalry where you can “throw records out the window.” If the Volunteers, losers of five in a row SU & ATS, can’t keep this one close at home and off a bye, then Pruitt is likely a “goner.” 

Since suffering its lone defeat of the season, 41-38 at Texas A&M, Florida has WON five in a row. So we’re looking at the complete opposite trajectory of Tennessee. However, with the exception of the big win over Georgia, the Gators have really been beating up on the dregs of the Southeastern Conference. The other four wins have been against: Kentucky, Vandy, Arkansas and Missouri. One more win gets the Gators into their first SEC Championship Game since 2016, likely against #1 Alabama. The thing is I don’t think HC Dan Mullen is looking for any “style points” at this juncture. He just wants the win. 

Tennessee led Auburn 10-0 two weeks ago, which was the last time we saw them. The game really swung on a 100-yard ‘pick-six’ thrown by Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. There is some speculation that Guarantano is one of the several Tennessee players in quarantine. Because of the two week layoff, many are still expected to play Saturday. Even if Guarantano doesn’t play, look out for freshman QB Harrison Bailey to possibly provide a spark. I know things aren’t looking good in Knoxville and it’s tough to make a case, but look for UT to keep this one closer than expected. Note: Florida has been favored by 17 or more just two times against Tennessee. Both were in Gainesville and they went 0-2 ATS, even losing one outright (2001). Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was clearly outclassed last week in a 42-13 loss to Alabama. But the good news (for them) is that the “Iron Bowl” comes but only once a year. Now they are faced with yet another Top 5 opponent this week in Texas A&M. But the Aggies looked thoroughly unimpressive in a 20-7 win over LSU last weekend in College Station. Even Auburn was able to beat “those Tigers” 48-11. Key here is this game is at Jordan-Hare, which means Auburn QB Bo Nix should play well (he usually does at home). I disagree with the line move as well and think we’re now getting a real solid value on the home dog. 

Auburn has a really strong home vs. road dichotomy this season as they are 4-0 SU here at Jordan-Hare (winning by an average of 17.0 PPG), but just 1-3 SU on the road. Going back to 2016, this will be just the 7th time that the Tigers are catching points at home. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS previously with four outright wins. Despite having lost three times this season, I still consider Auburn a Top 25 team in the country and my own power ratings have this game as a near pick ‘em. Despite being ranked #5 by the committee, Texas A&M is no Alabama (remember they lost to the Crimson Tide by 28 points themselves.

A&M has been just as inconsistent as Auburn this season and it's usually because of the offense. They only barely beat Vanderbilt in the season opener and then last week could only put up 20 on an LSU defense that had REALLY been struggling. Of the two touchdowns they scored, one was by the defense. So the offensive performance was even WORSE than you think as they put up less than 300 total yards and the lone TD scored came on a big 52-yard run. Off their last 10 SEC losses, Auburn is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, so history says they are going to play a lot better this week. Take the points. 8* Auburn

8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup.

About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points.

Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn

8* Kansas (12:00 ET): If you’ve been betting against Kansas this year, chances are you’ve done quite well for yourself. The Jayhawks currently check in with an 0-7-1 against the spread record and have yet to win a game straight up. The Over is 7-0-1 in their games as they’ve given up an average of 49.8 points. But a brief glimmer of hope appeared last week in the form of QB Miles Kendrick, who came in and completed 11 of 16 pass attempts for 166 yards and two touchdowns. We’d seen Kendrick previously this season, but that relief effort almost assuredly will earn him the starting gig for this Saturday’s game at Texas Tech. 

This is a dangerous number for Texas Tech to be laying this week. (Update: TT coach Matt Wells tested positive for COVID). Sure, Kansas isn’t good. But neither are the Red Raiders, who come in at 3-6 SU and ATS. They are off a narrow loss to Oklahoma State, 50-44, where they covered the 12.5-point spread due to a pair of late scores. While Kansas is universally recognized as the worst team in the Big 12, Texas Tech is definitely the second worst. Their three wins this season have come by a total of 10 points. One of them was against a FCS opponent (Houston Baptist) where they had to stop a 2-point conversion in the final minutes. This is the first time they’ve been favored since that game, which was the season opener. 

Thanks to Kendrick, KU matched its season high in scoring last week with 23 points (against TCU). This week they face a Red Raiders defense that just surrendered 50 points and 539 yards to an Oklahoma State team that was without its top two running backs. I predict the Jayhawks will achieve a new season-high in points this week as Texas Tech is giving up 39.3 points and 470.6 yards per game. As bad as Kansas has been in 2020, it seems improbable that they could go an entire season without covering a game. They allowed THREE non-offensive TDs last week, which won't happen again. Texas Tech doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody and remember they are the last team to lose to Kansas (37-34 last season). My power rankings say this number is off by a full TD. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Kansas

8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. 

Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. 

Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana

10* North Texas (6:00 ET): This has been a College Football season like none other before it and few things embody that assessment more than the fact Louisiana Tech did not play a single game in November! The Bulldogs last played Halloween night when they “treated” backers to a 37-34 upset of UAB (in overtime) as 12.5-point home underdogs. North Texas can certainly empathize with La Tech’s recent plight as the Mean Green also went a full month without playing a game before getting to take the field each of the last two weeks. But they are the team in better “game shape” heading into this one and I’ll follow the money (line move). 

I should note that my own power ratings actually disagree with the line move here. But I’m disregarding those rankings in this instance as they are obviously unaware of the long layoff for Louisiana Tech. Also, my power rankings have overestimated the Bulldogs before. I made the mistake of taking them in an October home game vs. UTEP, which they won by only 4 points despite being a two touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech has not outgained a single FBS opponent this season and had dropped four in a row ATS (1-3 SU) before the upset of UAB where they were outgained by 104 yards. The Bulldogs are bottom 20 in the country in total offense, which will be a welcome reprieve for a struggling North Texas defense. 

Believe it or not, but the Mean Green were considered a “sharp side” going into last Saturday’s tilt w/ UTSA, which they promptly lost 49-17 as 1-pt underdogs. Clearly taking sharp money again this week, they hope for a better result now that they’re back in Denton. Like North Texas, La Tech struggles defensively. The difference is they are going to have to contend with an offense that is top 5 in the country, averaging 536.9 YPG! The home team simply has a massive edge offensively in this one. You would not know that by watching North Texas’ last two games, but the last time I took them they put up 52 points and 768 total yards in a blowout win over Middle Tennessee. They are the right side here as LA Tech should not be favored on the road. 10* North Texas

10* Philadelphia (8:15 ET): I had tremendous success taking home dogs on Sunday and here’s another one where I see a ton of value. Seattle may be regarded as one of the league’s better teams, but they tend to be involved in a lot of close games. So far, seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. This is a continuation from last season where they went an extremely fortunate 11-3 SU in one-score games. That good fortune has carried over to this year with a 5-2 SU record in those games. Bottom line: the Seahawks may be winning, but they usually win close.

Normally, if a team was a 3-6-1, they’d already be thinking about next season. But because the Eagles (who have that record) play in the NFC East, they are very much still alive for a division title and playoff berth. This despite B2B “ugly” losses to the Giants and Browns. But both of those came on the road. Since losing to the Rams 39-17 back in Week 2, the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU here in Philly with the lone loss coming by two points against the Ravens. That loss to the Ravens was the only other time this season where they were a home dog and they covered the spread. 

Seattle is far from invincible when they hit the road. Their record away from home this season is just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. And let’s not forget just how awful the Seahawks’ pass defense has been. They are allowing 343.7 YPG through the air, most in the league. So I can see Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who has struggled, having his best game in a while here. Even though they are 7-3 SU, Seattle has been outgained by their opponents this season. The Eagles are actually even w/ theirs on a per play basis. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): The Bucs suffered another primetime loss on Monday, this one against the Rams 27-24. Primetime has accounted for three of the team’s four losses this season and they are 0-4 ATS in such games, the lone win being a nail-biter over the 3-7 Giants. So Tom Brady and company have to be pretty happy to be playing in the 4 PM (ET) window this week, even if the opponent is Kansas City. When NOT playing in primetime this year, Brady is 6-1 SU with the only loss coming back in Week 1 (at New Orleans).

This will also be just the third time this season that Tampa Bay is an underdog. The first was that Week 1 loss in New Orleans. The other was an outright win against Green Bay here at home. Brady is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins as a home dog in his illustrious career. That earlier win against the Packers marked just the 4th time in the last 15 seasons that Brady has been a home dog. He’s won outright all four times. Brady is also 15-8 ATS coming off a Monday night game. I think this is a great value as my power rankings still say TB should be a slight favorite here. 

Kansas City brings in a vaunted reputation as the defending Super Bowl champs. They are 9-1 SU this season and just avenged their only defeat by beating the Raiders last Sunday night. But they needed a last minute TD to get the win in Vegas and it was the second straight win by four points or less. The defense allowed 31 points to both the Panthers and Raiders. They’ve been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Bucs’ defense, which is outstanding against the run (#1 in the league), can make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): After playing well in front of a national television audience, the Raiders were the recipients of some “early money” this week, getting bet up to the current price. We had ‘em last Sunday night when they covered against the Chiefs and almost took the game outright. But they lost, 35-31, and what’s interesting here is that this is just the third time all season Las Vegas has been favored! Atlanta has been a giant disappointment in 2020 (already fired their HC), but I don’t think they should be a dog here. 

The Falcons were off their bye last week and facing a QB making his first career start (Taysom Hill). But you can’t discount just how good the Saints are playing right now. Atlanta ended up losing 24-9, dropping them to 3-7 SU on the year. What was so disappointing about LW’s loss is that the Falcons had been playing better before the bye. They’d won three of four games with the only loss coming by 1 point. Looking at the remaining schedule, which is just brutal, this is probably the Falcons’ best shot at picking up another win for interim HC Raheem Morris.

I firmly believe that bettors have overreacted to Las Vegas; close call vs. Kansas City last week. Remember that game was at home. That the Raiders have been favored only twice so far is a clear indication that they have overachieved. Factoring in the fact this game is in Atlanta, I’ve got it rated as a toss-up. The Falcons haven’t been a home dog this season. Matt Ryan, who was sacked eight times by the Saints, should have a much better game this week against the #28 rated pass defense. Also, Las Vegas has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league with 11. The Falcons are better than their record while the Raiders (who have been outgained by their opponents) aren’t as good as theirs. 8* Atlanta

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Ok, so the Bengals’ season appears pretty much done. They are 2-7-1 SU and now have to go the rest of the way without starting QB Joe Burrow. They lost the #1 overall draft pick for the remainder of the season last week in Washington. Shell-shocked, they were shutout in the second half and lost 24-9. It should be pointed out that they were winning going into the break. This line has seen the most movement of any on the board this week as Cincinnnati was to be a short home favorite. With Burrow out and backup Brandon Allen to start in his place, the Giants are now a significant road favorite. 

The Giants should never be a road favorite of this size. Against anybody. I don’t care if Burrow is out; I don’t think he’s worth this much to the pointspread. While New York has been a covering machine on the road as of late (8-0 ATS L8), they haven’t been a road favorite of more than four points in almost four years. This is the 1st time since 2012 that a team with a win percentage of .333 or worse is a road favorite of more than a field goal. Since 1990, such teams are just 3-7 STRAIGHT UP! As a reminder, the Giants’ SU record is 3-7 with two of those wins coming by a combined four points against Washington. 

With Burrow, the Bengals were pretty good at keeping games close. Four of their seven losses have come by five points or less. Two of the exceptions came against the Steelers and Ravens. The other was last week, but the good news is that Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS off a loss this year. Allen at least has starting experience in this league and is probably an upgrade over the team’s other backup, Ryan Finley. The Giants have zero wins outside the division this year. They are the ONLY team in the league w/o a 3-game win streak the L4 seasons. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): So this probably could go one of two ways for the Jaguars. Either they pull an outright upset, or they get blown out. At 1-9 SU (that one win came in Wk 1), the Jags are turning to Mike Glennon at QB this week. It will be Glennon’s first NFL start in more than three years. It’s not an ideal spot to return to the starting role as the Jags will be missing numerous players - on both sides of the ball - due to COVID. But make no mistake about it, this play is a clear fade on Cleveland, who also has COVID issues.

The Browns are a surprising 7-3 SU this year, but they’ve taken advantage of a very weak schedule. Even more damning is the fact they have a -23 point differential. That’s worse than the 3-7 Chargers, who have a -13 point differential. Cleveland has also been fortunate to go 4-0 SU in one-score games this season. Two of those wins have come the L2 weeks, 10-7 over Houston and 22-17 against Philadelphia. The offense has scored 22 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games, scoring 10 or less three times! 

This will also be the Browns’ first time playing on the road in November! Their last three games were all at home. If they close at -7, it will mark the first time they’ve been favored by that many on the road since Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines in 1995! Baker Mayfield, who I believe to be a below-average NFL QB, is just 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. That includes 1-5 on the road with four outright losses. By the way, the Browns are just 1-4 ATS their L5 games overall. They will be without five players, one of them Myles Garrett, and haven’t been able to practice together much this week. Hold your nose and take the points. 8* Jacksonville

8* LA Chargers (1:00 ET): As I’ve harped on many times before, how a team performs in close games will largely dictate how the overall season goes. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the Chargers and Bills in 2020. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 13 points, but is 3-7 SU due to the fact they’ve lost 7 of 9 one-possession games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 7-3 SU despite only a +7 point differential because they are 5-1 in one score games. The Chargers are better than their record while the reverse is true for the Bills. This is similar to the Raiders-Falcons game, so once again we’re taking the points. 

The Chargers are actually off a close WIN, though there was no reason for that game to be close. They held on to beat the winless Jets 34-28 after opening up a 31-13 lead in the second half. Holding leads has been a problem all season for the Lightning Bolts as they’ve lost four games in which they held a DD lead. That’s not good. But leading the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay by double digits shows this team has got talent. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played great. The fact the team is a dog this week is appealing in that we’re “safe” were they to lose close again. But I expect them to win this week.

Buffalo suffered its lone close loss of the season two weeks ago when Arizona completed a Hail Mary. They had a week off (bye) to reflect on letting that one get away. Bottom line though is that they were outgained by the Cardinals and gave up 453 yards. The Bills defense has taken a step back this season as it is giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers rank 3rd (in the league!) in total offense. So far, Buffalo is just 2-2 SU when facing top five offenses. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under HC Anthony Lynn and 46-21-5 ATS in the role since 2004. Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a dog of five or more points. This “smells” like an upset. 8* LA Chargers

9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50.

There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game.

Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills

8* Hawaii (11:00 ET): There are only eight teams in College Football currently 5-0 (straight up) or better. One of them is Nevada. Hats off to the Wolf Pack for this start and they are one of three Mountain West teams without a loss. But they really haven’t played anybody. Three of their five wins - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - are over teams in the bottom 10 of my personal power rankings (MWC has some BAD teams). They are also 3-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. This week is going to be their toughest test to date. 

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU thus far as they are coming off a home loss last week to Boise State. They did cover the 13-point spread against the Broncos, but the game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated. The Warriors trailed 33-9 in the third quarter, only to then get things going with the game out of reach. Still, that was just their second game on the island in 2020. Typically, Hawaii has a pretty strong home field edge (13-6 SU L19 home games) and Nevada certainly isn’t as strong as Boise State.

Nevada is just 6-13 ATS its L19 games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on the road. That includes eight outright losses. I think an outright upset is definitely ‘in play’ Saturday night considering the fact Hawaii won 54-3 in Reno last year! Thus far, the Hawaii offense has been a lot more potent at home than on the road. The defense leads the conference in interceptions. Nevada’s defense has had a really high success rate on third down, which very well may not continue. Take the points here. 8* Hawaii

9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. 

Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. 

TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas

10* Navy (7:00 ET): This has been a down year so far in Annapolis. Some of that was to be expected after the Midshipmen jumped back up to a 11-2 SU record last season (from 3-11 SU in 2018). Let’s also be honest in saying that COVID-19 has affected their “ranks” more than most teams. There were two horrible, early season losses to BYU (55-3) and Air Force (40-7). But other than those, they’ve played pretty well. They’re 3-2 SU otherwise. This will be their first game in four weeks due to the pandemic as they are off three straight cancellations. One of those three is being made up here w/ a Sat night visit from Memphis.

Memphis has also been affected by cancellations in a season where they too were expected to regress. The Tigers are 5-2 SU, which is still good, but consider this was a 12-2 team a season ago that won the American Conference. Their two losses, both on the road, were against SMU and Cincinnati. Since losing 49-10 at unbeaten Cincinnati, Memphis has escaped with a one-point victory over a bad USF team and beaten FCS Stephen F Austin 56-14. They were supposed to face Navy in between those two opponents, but again COVID-19 struck. The offense has been great so far, but you can’t say the same about the defense. 

Year in and year out, Navy usually has one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks. This year has been a little different as the triple-option wasn’t that effective early in the season. However, over the past four games the Middies have run for 251, 288, 166 and 191 yards. Memphis does not have a good run defense, even though the overall numbers say it isn’t that bad. But those numbers, specifically the rush defense, are skewed by LW’s game vs. a FCS team. UCF and Cincinnati were able to average 220+ RYPG.  The Tigers have not won a road game all season and are just 2-8 ATS L10 games. Navy is 12-4 ATS its L16 conference games. Take the points. 10* Navy

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Penn State and Michigan are a combined 1-9 ATS this season. Even more surprising is they are a combined 2-8 straight up! Both SU wins belong to Michigan, one of those coming last week in triple overtime against Rutgers. So this game has nowhere near the anticipation it normally does. Penn State is 0-5 SU and ATS, which is the worst start in program history (134 years and counting). As shocking as that is, the Nittany Lions are actually outgaining opponents on the season, which is something Michigan cannot claim. I remain less sold on the Wolverines despite them winning last week. 

Were it not for turnovers, we’d probably be talking about Penn State in a much different light. They outgained three of their first four opponents (Ohio State the exception), two of them by 200+ yards! They were only slightly outgained (19 yards) by Iowa last week in a 41-21 defeat, which was the second game in three weeks the Nittany Lions were -3 in turnover differential. I think it’s fair to say this is among the unluckiest teams in all of College Football. They should have at least a couple wins under their belt. 

The big story with Michigan is that they believe they’ve finally found their starting QB. It’s too little, too late to mean anything for 2020, but last week saw Cade McNamara come on in relief for the ineffective Joe Milton and lead the comeback win against Rutgers. But it’s a pretty sorry state of affairs in Ann Arbor when the faithful are celebrating a 3OT win over a team (Rutgers) that’s 1-25 SU its last 26 Big 10 games. The Wolverines were down double digits in the first half last week. Their secondary is just awful as three of the last four opponents have thrown for 323+ yards. 8* Penn State