Vikings/Bears

The Bears have scored 52 points in their last two games, a huge improvement over their lowly 17 point scored average. The Bears have a solid run game, but the improvement has come in the passing game, with good increases in passing yards and points in the last three games. Unfortunately the Bears defense, already 28th rated, is much worse over their last three games.

The Vikings haven’t had a low scoring game since week 4. They are 10th and climbing in points scored, with an average of 30 points in their last three games. Like the Bears, their points allowed, never low, has climbed to 29 over the last three games.

On the field, the Vikings defense is 26th and 27th rated against the pass and run respectively, but they are top in the league at applying QB pressure. Luckily for the Bears, Field has handled the blitz well and has the advantage of scrambling impressively. The Bears defense struggle against the run but generally handle the pass well. The Vikings put up monster numbers with the run offense last week and have shown improvement well above average with their run game lately. Against Cousins, the Bears face a well protected, dynamic, and accurate QB, with high TD totals and low interception and sack numbers. Cousins could very well pick the Bears offense apart, just as Rogers did last week.

Lets see, both teams are scoring more on offense and allowing more on defense. It doesn’t take rocket science to see the potential for a high scoring affair. This game is a definite total over selection

Saints/Buccaneers.

The Saints meet up with the Bucs sporting an impressive recent history against them. Can they continue their unlikely dominance against the immensely talented Brady and Co? Probably not. Can they keep this game close? Yes, and here is why.

The Saints have struggled this season and have had severe injury issues. In week 15, their three very good rush options (Hill, Kamara, Ingram) are all healthy. And yes, you can run on the Bucs. While third in defense against the run for the season, the Bucs’ rush defense has degraded of late, both in yards allowed, yards per carry, and points allowed of late. In addition, they have a hard time against a QB who can run. I think the Saints’ healthy and diverse run offense will have success against the Bucs.

It is unlikely that they will completely control Brady, but with an established run game, they can keep him off the field. The Buccaneers have become somewhat less of a pass first offense of late, but RB Fournette is questionable or compromised this week. The Saints defense has been very good against the run and best in the league at red zone defense. Their pass defense has improved dramatically of late. They have been able to get to Brady in the past, although the Bucs’ O line is generally very solid.. If they can key on Brady, they can prevent a blowout.

The Bucs’ defense is only average against the pass, but very good in QB pressure. The second key is whether Hil can establish enough of a passing game to be effective.

The Saints need a win here to stay in the running. A win is unlikely but I am counting on them to keep this game close. Take the Saints with the points.

The Broncos are off a lopsided win, the Bengals off a pair of losses. This is THE game to ante in or fold for both teams, in what will likely be a very close match up. At QB, the young dynamic Burrow gets the nod over Bridgewater, but with a couple of caveats. Burrow has been sacked an astounding 41 times, and has thrown for too many interceptions. Still, he is very cool under fire, and very good against the blitz.

Both teams have solid run offenses. The Broncos have been “runnin’ fools” in the last 3 weeks. The Broncos are a run-first offense, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, which plays to the Bengals’ strength on defense. Forcing Bridgewater to throw will likely be a Bengals focus.

Denver’s defense is strong against the pass and great in the red zone. Some teams have run on them and they are only average in QB pressure, which might be a break for Burrow. The Bengals defense does two things very well. They apply pressure to opposing QBs, and as noted are very strong against the run.

This game will be close, and likely hinges on turnovers. If the Bengals control their turnovers, they win outright. While the Broncos are solid in ball control, I still like the explosiveness of a Burrow-led Bengals offense. Take the Bengals with the points.

Cardinals/Lions

This is a very lopsided match-up with an equally large point spread. I can’t see the Cardinals not taking the Lions seriously. I think the reverse is more likely. After a tough loss and a blow to their collective egos, I see the Cardinals out for blood, with no mercy shown. Looking at games where Arizona has played the NFL lesser lights, there have been some very big margins. The stats are remarkably one sided; there is no one area that the Lions excel in for them to take any purchase on keeping this game close. A couple of key stats: red zone success- Arizona, 3rd, Detroit, 31st, and sacks- Cardinals 6th and climbing, Lions 31st. Murray will have lots of protection but it could be a very long evening for Goff.

The Lions lost by 28 against Denver last week. As much as this is a large spread, I think the Cardinals will win and cover. Expect a similar result to week 14

Patriots/Colts

The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense.

The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed.

It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer.

While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense.

It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots

Step back to NFL week three when the Chargers knocked off the Chiefs 30-24. Fast forward to now. It is remarkable how the Chiefs became so tough to play against. It is now 4 of 5 games that the Chiefs have allowed less than NINE points. Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in TDs allowed. They have also become much tougher in pressuring the QB, which will be critical on Thursday

While the Chargers are very good defending against the pass, they have been run on almost at will at times by opposing teams, and are 30th defending in the red zone. They have not allowed less than 20 points since week on.

Mahomes and Herbert are quite similar when the stats are compared. Both are a solid run option, and can be explosive. Mahomes has been lower key, but did bounce back for a huge game in week 14. Herbert had some struggles after a strong start, but has been dominant of late.

Oddly, the running game may decide this match up. The Chiefs’ no longer require Mahomes to be their only option. They have a number of viable run options, against a weak Chargers defense. The Chargers are far more reliant on Herbert as a one trick pony. Their best RB is limited this week, and the Chiefs defense has been all over the run in the last few games.

The last time the Chargers faced a tough defense (Denver) they did not fare well. I don’t see the Chiefs reverting to their early season struggles on defense, and Mahomes looked pretty fired up last week. The Chiefs just have more options than the Chargers. Look for KC to control Herbert, and win the rematch. Chiefs to win and cover..

Rams/Cardinals

The Rams are 8-4, but their list of conquests reads like the NFL bottom-feeders club. The last time they beat a team with a winning record was week one. Arizona has a far more impressive pedigree this year, and continued to win without their starting Qb. Comparing quarterbacks, Stafford throws for more yards and TDs, is less accurate, with more interceptions and some questionable decision making. He has been very well protected by his O-line, but that may change this week. While Murray didn’t throw much in his return, he is more accurate, and is a real option to run, health permitting. He has weathered more pressure than Stafford.

As the run goes, the Rams don’t. Much. They are missing their top RB, but Michel did fill in well last game. The Cardinals have a solid pair of options (three if you count Murray) they can rely upon. They are top of the pack in rushing Tds.

The Rams run defense give up a lot of yards and points (23rd rated), but against the pass, they are straight out tough. The Cardinals defense is strong all around and very tough in the red zone. Both teams have exceptional pass rushes.

So who wins this one? If you ask me, it is the Cardinals. They beat the Rams previously, have faced tougher competition with better results, and have a more balanced offense. Take the Cardinals to win outright.

The Bears rumble into their match against the Packers and it won’t be a picnic. While the Bears are trending towards healthy, or at least healthier, the Packers are still a force to be reckoned with. The Bears’ rookie QB is back from injury, but this is hardly cause for celebration. Justin Field’s numbers are not impressive. Two stats stand out; 4 Tds against 8 interceptions, and an ugly 31 sacks. No wonder his ribs hurt. On the plus side, he can run. At QB this game is a mismatch. Compare to Rodgers’ 23 Tds, vs 4 interceptions and 21 sacks. Rogers will likely control this game, using the Packers’ very average running game when he needs to.

All the signs point to a big Packers win, but Rodgers’ comments no doubt stung. A win is likely out of the question for the Bears, but what do they have or need to keep this one close?

1. Run the ball successfully and slow the game down. Montgomery can be a force to be reckoned with, and Fields, if he is up to it, can also run. The Packers’ defense are tough against the run, especially lately.

2. The Bears defense is poor against the run, but solid against the pass. They can and will want to get to Rodgers today. Making his life miserable will likely be job #1.

3. Control turnovers. Fields has been a walking interception machine. Rodgers is very careful with the ball. The Bears must protected their QB today.

4. Take advantage in the red zone. One of the Bears’ successes has been their ability to finish their chances which are few enough. This will be critical today.

I think the line is about right in normal circumstances, but I think the Bears will make the extra effort to stand proud and keep this game closer than expected. Take the Bears with the points.

The Bills meet the Bucs in a much awaited matchup. The game features two premier passers and a pair of pass-first offenses, so the outcome depends on how each team defends. Brady and his receivers face the Bills’ top ranked pass defense, but what the Bills don’t do is pressure the quarterback effectively. The Bucs have been very good at protecting Brady, so we can see a situation where Brady, with time, will be throwing against a very good secondary. For Allen the reverse is true. The Bucs have the 20th ranked pass defense, but are very good at pressuring the opposing QB. They are fourth in sacks for the season and had 5 last week. Can the Bucs get to Allen regularly or will he pick them to pieces through the air? A key factor in this game could be defense in the red zone. While the Bucs give up passing yards, they are significantly better than the Bills in defending in the red zone.

What about the running game? What running game.. The Bills don’t run much. Even last week in gale force winds, they stuck to the program. It is tough to run against the Bucs; they are 2nd rated in rushing defense. Tampa Bay has viable run options, but it is always option #2. Looking at how successful teams have been against the usually dependable Bills' run defense lately might give the Bucs pause for thought.

The Bills have been uneven this year, but good on the road. The Bucs, other than a blip in the beginning of November have maintained a steady ship, and are undefeated at home. Brady and Gronk have owned the Bills. Take Tampa Bay to win and cover.

The Raiders meet the Chiefs in a rematch, with the Chiefs winning in a blowout in Vegas last time out. The Chiefs are winning, but not as expected; their defense is ruling the roost, allowing an average of only10 points over their last 4 games. Vegas has struggled at 1-5. The Raiders’ QB has had a solid season, but he is a one trick pony, so as goes he, so go the Raiders. Carr is passing for 260+ yards over his last three games which is down for him. He has been sacked 27 times this year and has surprisingly few TDs (17) compared to other elite Qbs. By comparison, Mahomes, very much on a down year, has thrown for less yds, but is sacked much less and has far more TDs. The Chiefs’ O line, unlike the Raiders’, has shown solid improvement in protecting their QB.

These are pass-first offenses. Vegas is 28th in rushing yards, the Chiefs 19th. For the Chiefs, Edwards-Hilaire is healthy at RB, and Mahomes is always a dangerous option. The Raiders have Jacobs, who has run for 470+ yards but averages only 3.8 yds a carry.

Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in Tds allowed. They are tough to play against, with more than 2 takeaways in each of 4 last games, and very good sack totals. Quarterbacks have been successful against the Raiders, with a 97+ QB rate against them, 26th in the league. They held WFT to 17 points, but allowed 32+ in their previous three games.

The Chiefs are heavy favorites, so a win is expected, but will they cover? Vegas is out-coached, and Mahomes is due. With no real running game it is hard to see the Raiders controlling the ball. This might not be the blow out we saw in their last meeting, but I expect the Chiefs to cover.

Only the Vikings could reel off 426 yards of offense and still lose. Last week, Cousins had a solid game, and he has been that way all year. He has 23 TDs against only three interceptions. He has had time to throw, and has been well protected with only 15 sack for the season. That may change against the Steelers. Pittsburgh sacked the QB 7 times last week, and leads the league in applying pressure. TJ Watt is a monster, and can be a game changer.

The Vikings, rated right behind Pittsburgh, can crash a quarterback as well. It is one of the only areas where the Viking defense excels. Where the Vikings’ 24th rated defense does not pass muster is in the red zone (25th), against the run (29th), and pass yards against (22nd).

The Vikings are a pass-first offense but they do have run options. There main man Cook is out, but Mattison filled in well last week. The Steelers’ defense has not been great against the run either, but will make life difficult for Cousins and his receivers, especially in the red zone.

This would seem a perfect opportunity for the Steelers to run the ball, and they have the man for the job. Rookie Najee Harris has become a legitimate 2 way force, but the Steelers until now choose not to exploit the run much. Roethlisberger is not the force he once was, but he has slowly improved this year. The Steelers’ O line has been more effective lately, and he has only 6 interceptions against 14 Tds. He will face pressure from the Vikings defense.

We are starting to see more of the “tough to play against” character of the Steelers and that is not good news for the Vikings. Pittsburgh has momentum on their side, and are 4-1-1 ATS lately. The Vikings are not an effective home team this year. Look for the Vikings to struggle on offense on Thursday, and Roethlisberger, in his final season, do enough to keep this one close or win.Take Pittsburgh

On paper, the Patriots and Bills are close, but the edge goes to Buffalo. On the “what have you done lately” scale, the baton passes to the Patriots. Here are a few good reasons to take New England on Monday night.

1. Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. The kid can really think on his feet, rivalling top veteran QBs. How much has he improved? Last week he threw for 330 yards, with a 120+ QB rating, and in his last three weeks, he has a 79% pass completion rate. Just try and keep up with the Jones!

2. the Patriots are winning by miles ATS, and beating some worthy opponents while doing it. The Bills, 2-3 and a push over the same period, have been erratic. The pummeled a very depleted Saints team but rolled over for the Colts.

3. A huge improvement in the Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, the passing yards allowed has dropped from a seasonal average of 200 to 109 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and solid pressuring the passer. The Bills’ very good pass defense has declined slightly on average, and they do not pressure the passer as much.

4. The Patriots appear poised, confident, and ready for greater glory. I am not so sure about the Bills. They are a good but uneven team, maybe ready to be toppled. It will likely be close but take the Patriots on Monday.

The Chiefs are off a bye week, rested and relatively healthy, and at home in prime time. Time for a blow out win over Denver? Maybe not. The Broncos have been solid vs a pass-first offense this year. They are 10th rated against the pass, with a good secondary, and effective at applying pressure to the QB. They do not have a dominant QB like Mahomes, but Bridgewater has been accurate and doesn’t give the ball away, with only 5 interceptions all year. The Broncos’ running game has been solid. They are down a running back, but Williams has been a real eye-opener this year and this could be his game to shine. The Chiefs’ pass defense is only 24th rated, and other than last game, they do not pressure QBs overly, so if the Broncos can establish a running game to support Bridgewater, this game could be close.

What to say about Mahomes. He was brilliant against the Raiders, and good against the Cowboys, but he will likely face more pressure from the Broncos than in either of his last two games. If he has a weakness, it is that he has thrown a good number of interceptions this year with 11 already. Unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs over all are prone to giveaways. On the plus side, the Chiefs’ defense appears to have improved this year, all the way from problematic to solid. Any success the Broncos have tonight rests on just which Chiefs defense shows up.

The Chiefs are a largish favorite, but are not particularly impressive ATS. Denver as well as KC are an improved team this year with momentum of their own. I don’t expect Denver to win, but this game may be closer than expected. Take the Broncos

The Seahawks beat the 49ers in early October, but much has changed since then. The 49er have what the Seahawks need, which is a running game. Seattle has averaged only 65 yards in their last three starts. Wilson is exposed, and the Seahawks’ possession time is limited. The resurgence of the 49ers’ running game coincides with the recent strong performance of Garoppolo. The 49ers, 6th rated and rising in rushing yards are averaging more than double the yards per game. Missing Samuel will be a loss on the ground and in the air, but Mitchell ran for 130+ yards on his own last week.

Wilson looked better last week but the WFT’s pass defense isn’t even on the same planet as the 49ers’. It will likely be a long game for Wilson; the Seahawks’ offensive line is allowing more than 3 sacks a game, and the 49ers’ defense take no prisoners.

Garoppolo has been effective and efficient, with very impressive stats in his last few games. He has only thrown two interceptions in 5 games, and has had good protection. The Seattle passing defense is rock bottom in yards allowed, and does not pressure well. With a strong running game, and a good offensive line, look for Garoppolo to have something of a field day. Final nail in the coffin: Seattle has been miserable at home, while the 49ers are road warriors this year and are 4-1 ATS lately.

Favorable odds are out there. Take the 49ers to win and cover.

Giants/Dolphins

With the Dolphins, it is very much “what have you done lately?”The answer is a lot; 4 wins in a row, 4-0-1 ATS, Tagovailoa hitting 80+ completion % and +100 QB rating four times in the last five games for starters. Looking through the stats, the last four games show a dramatic turnaround. The Dolphins’ run defense, 10th on average, has been much better than that recently and has been blitzing very successfully. Even their dismal running game has improved.

For the Giants, the outlook is not so rosy. Jones their QB is not likely to play. His replacement Glennon is 6-21 lifetime and has hardly played this season. Last week the Giants’ defense held the Eagles to 7 points but they were only able to score 13. Without Jones, and with an average running game (of which Jones was an active part) up against the tough Dolphins run defense, it will be hard to score points this week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five games and have faced better teams than the Giants. Look for the Dolphins to continue in their winning way and cover.

A pair of teams in recovery meet in Thursday night Football. Right now there are questions around who will play, but a few things are known. Taysom Hill will be the Saints’ QB. He will likely be an improvement over Siemian, if for nothing else other than his running abilities, but he may not be completely recovered. The Saints’ pass offense has been dismal, and their run offense, without Kamara has dropped from an average of 120+ yards to 79 yards over the last three games. Kamara is still questionable. The Saints possession time has been very poor in their last games as well.

The Saints’ claim to fame is their formidable 3rd rated run offense, but you wouldn’t have know it in the two previous weeks, giving up a massive 242 and 113 yards respectively. New Orleans’ pass defense is not in the same league at 23rd ranked, which will be a bonus for Prescott. Dak seems completely recovered, and was impressive last week. This week he will have some of his usual suspects back for targets. The Cowboys’ running game has plummeted in the past weeks with a banged up Elliott continuing to play, but Pollard is healthy. The Cowboys defense is weak and was picked to pieces by Vegas last week. Their run defense on average is, well, average..

For the Saints to get anywhere against the Cowboys, their run defense will have to bounce back, and Hill will have to generate some much needed offense. Hill is the wild card here, and it would be asking a lot for him to carry the Saints offense. The Cowboys will be working hard to restore their season, and might be the healthier of the two teams. I can't see New Orleans putting enough points on the board to keep up with Prescott and that  #1 offense.  Take The Cowboys to win and cover.

It is last call for the Seahawks on Sunday, sporting a 30th and 32nd ranked offense and defense, and the Washington FT on the upswing. Wilson has not been in form since returning, but no matter how he performs on Monday, Seattle has very significant issues standing between them and a win.

The Seahawks, missing Carson, and with Collins limited, are without any real options on the run, and the FT handles the rush very well. Washington has a legitimate run game, 10th rated and improving in their last three games. The Seahawks defense has struggled against the run all season. As a backup QB, Heineke has performed much better than expected, particularly in his last two games. He has thrown for 4 TDs against 0 interceptions in those two games. Wilson is still an unknown this week, and he will face a poor but dramatically improving WFT pass defense. The same cannot be said of the Seahawks’ passing defense. They have been bad, (rated 30th) and stayed bad. Neither team protects their QB well, but Seattle really struggles; Wilson has been sacked 7 times in the two games since his return.

Wilson has worked miracles before, but the Seahawks aren’t helping his cause. This game is basically a pick’um. I am picking the Washington football team.

It hasn’t been the season that the Browns expected but they are still in the hunt. The oft-injured Browns are recovering, although Mayfield is playing injured and, apparently, angry. He has not been at his best, with only 163 passing yards average in the last 3 games, and 10 touchdowns against 27 sacks. The Browns have the best rush offense in the league with Chub and possibly Hunt, but they are up against the Ravens’ 2nd rated rush defense. The Ravens’ pass defense is not in the same league at 2nd to last, but they do like to blitz, and as seen in the sack figures, the Browns don’t protect their passer very well.

For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is back. He is the 11th ranked passer in the league, with 14 TDs against an ugly 28 sacks. He has also run for 600+ yards this year, and with the other running backs, has a rush offense that doesn’t trail the Browns by much. Weakness #2 is the Ravens’ offensive line, although the Browns do not have a habit of blitzing regularly.

The Browns defense overall is solid, but they have had some very lopsided losses this season. Teams that have handled the Browns running game have pretty well had their way with them. The Ravens' solid run defense could put them in that category.  Jackson and the Ravens have handled the Browns in the past, and are very good at home.  So the Ravens win, but do they cover?  They aren't good ATS this year, but have been against the Browns. Ravens

The Chargers and Broncos couldn’t be much more different. The Chargers have a 4th ranked pass-centered offense built around a young, explosive, if occasionally uneven QB in Herbert. The Broncos are a low scoring, low points allowed team. QB Bridgewater doesn’t throw a lot, is accurate and conservative with few interceptions. The rushing offense should figure prominently for the Broncos on Sunday if Denver has any hope of success. They have a solid ‘double threat’ pair of running backs who maybe don’t get used as much as they should. The Chargers defense is very poor vs the run, although improving somewhat in the last three games. The Broncos offensive line is injury riddled and rough at the best of times. Bridgewater has been sacked 21 times already, so the running game look even more attractive.

The run has not been a focus for the Chargers, or at least not until recently. Ekeler has developed into a solid pass and run threat, and of course Herbert can run effectively. The Chargers will have their hands full running on Sunday as the Broncos defense (last week notwithstanding) has been solid vs the run.

Where the Broncos struggle is against the pass. They are the 29th rated team defending against the pass and have a poor pass rush. This plays to the strength of the Chargers offense and will I think, be decisive in the final outcome.

The Chargers are 2 ½ point favorites, and will have just too much offense for the Broncos to match. Look for the Chargers to win and cover.

The Patriots are winning and often by a wide margin, limiting their last 3 opponents to a touchdown or less. The injury-riddled Titans have given up an average of 20 points over their last 4 games.

Post-Henry, the Titans rush offense has dropped significantly. Tannehill, without the protection of a premier running game and his three top targets, has been exposed and has seen his sack numbers rise to a whopping 31, along with 12 interceptions.

By comparison, rookie Mac Jones has developed well this season, has a higher completion rate, has been sacked less and has 2/3rds the interceptions. His completion rate has been in the 80’s in the last three Patriot games. The Patriots’ running game has found new footage of late, and has been in the NFL top three in their last 3 games.

The Titan 5th rated defense are hard to run against for yards, but they are not as effective in run points allowed. The Patriots are far more effective against the pass.

Injuries may catch up with the Titans on Sunday. With Henry, Jones and Brown all out, and Tannehill exposed, it is hard to see where their points will come from. If the Patriots maintain their withering defense of the last few games, and Jones continues in good form, the Patriots should win and cover.

Patriots

The Bills have a few things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 1. They are healthy, a novel concept in the NFL. 2. The Saints are not. Missing major players in the offensive line, and with Kamara missing and Ingram questionable, the Saints running game has taken a big hit. 3. Siemian is showing his true colors. Siemian’s completion rate is in the 50’s, very low considering the protection he has received, and without Kamara as a run threat and a passing out, he will be even more limited.

The Bills were embarrassed last week by the Colts, their usually solid run defense torn to shreds. The Saints, usually even better against the run, were also pummeled, with much of that coming from opposing QB Hurts. Allen can run. Can he duplicate Hurts’ success? Allen has struggled of late and has not lived up to expectations. This game provides an opportunity for bounce back, if he can control an ugly pattern of turnovers. He has been protected well this season, and the 22nd rated Saints passing defense could be picked on.

I like Buffalo in this game. The Bills have a winning record on the road, the Saints have struggled at home. With a depleted running game, Siemian up against a tough Bills passing defense and with the Saints’ depleted O line, I just don’t see where the Saints’ points are coming from. This is the perfect opportunity for Allen and the Bills to shine. Take the Bills to win and cover.

The Cowboys may not be as banged up as was suggested, which is bad news for the Raiders. At home, in primetime, and after that loss to the Chiefs, Prescott and the Cowboys will be looking to flex their muscular offense. The Cowboys are a very good home team, and they meet the Raiders at a fortuitious moment. The Raiders are struggling in the last three games and in a big way, with points for at 14.3 and huge totals against. Even their very strong pass offense has dropped by 50 yds, and their 3 down conversions are miserable.

Carr has been very good in passing for yards, but trails Prescott in accuracy & passing TDs, and interceptions. Without a prominent run offense or offensive line, Carr has been sacked more often. Aside from Prescott and a variety of fine targets, the Cowboys have a potent two pronged rushing attack with Elliot reportedly available this week. In fact the running game may be a deciding factor on Turkey day, with the Cowboys defending well against the run, and the Raiders, you guessed it, struggling.

The Cowboys’ defense has been better than expected this year; last week, a case in point, they held Mahomes and co. to 19 points. There is not much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one. I am also counting on them to cover. Cowboys

As traditional as Turkey lately, the Lions are in primetime on Thanksgiving day. Make that EARLY prime time! Here are a couple of key notes. The Bears have already beaten the Lions this year and covered. The Lions are 6-4 against the spread but the Bears, while 4-6 overall against the spread, are 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.

The quarterback situation is unclear in Detroit, with Goff being ‘will he won’t he’. On the other side, it will be back up Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton has experience, and will be better protected than usual as the Lions are worst in the league in pressuring the quarterback. Whoever starts for Detroit will face likely more pressure, as the Bears are 2nd int the league in sacks.

This game will likely feature the running game from both reams. The Bears have the advantage in the rushing department with a hot Montgomery and the 6th rated rushing attack against a Lions defense that is 31st in the league. Montgomery ran for 100+ yards and two Tds the last time out against the Lion. While the Lions’ running game has potential, it is middle of the pack in terms of yards. The Bears defense are more likely to control Swift and the Lions’ run game than the reverse against Montgomery.

The Lions are at home, which hasn’t made a difference this season as they are winless. The Bears aren’t a terrific road team but need a victory. The odds have tightened up in the Bears’ favor. I favor the Bears but it will be close. Take Chicago

The Giants, well rested after their bye week face Brady and the Bucccaneers off 2 straight losses. New York has been effective on the road ATS this year and has had some success against the Bucs ATS. Jones may have some opportunities against Tampa Bay, as the Bucs’ pass defense, which has struggled all season, has been particularly poor in the last two games. They likely won’t have too much success against the run even if Barkley is back, as the Bucs are very successful against the run.

Is Brady on a downward trend or will be bounce back with a vengeance in primetime and at home? Either is a possibility, although something of the latter is more likely. It is still not certain which of Brady’s targets will be returning from injury.

Will the Buccaneers win this game? Most likely. Will they cover? I have my doubts. Look for the Giants to keep things close. Giants 

An injury-ridden Steelers team limps into LA to face the relatively healthy but struggling Chargers team in a key matchup for both teams. And yes, Ben will be in the stadium. Much of the Steelers’ defense will not start, including TJ Watt. Justin Herbert will likely be breathing a sigh of relief. Herbert, after a very strong start, has struggled badly in his last four games, with a QB rating of under 75 in three of them. Last week he threw for only 195 yards, and the Chargers ARE a pass driven offense. That may change this week as Pittsburgh’s defense is 9th against the pass, but 24th against the run. Look for more from Ekeler, who is more than capable, in Week 11.

With Big Ben back, memories of the Steelers’ pathetic efforts in week 10 can slide into the distance. Not that he has been overwhelming, but the Steelers’ offense certainly appeared rudderless last week. Roethlisberger has improved as the season progressed. The Steelers will likely look to their stellar RB Najee Harris and their running game this weekend. Last week aside, when they didn’t defend well against either,, the Chargers defend well against the pass but are 31st in YPC and dead last in rushing yards allowed.

The Steelers are a good road team, but the number of injuries is a real concern. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from embarrassing week ten efforts. This is a must win for Herbert and the Chargers.  There is a good chance that much of this game will be on the ground, slowing the pace, and lowering the total.  Take the total to go under on Sunday night.

Have the Chiefs really turned things around? They crushed Las Vegas last week, but won in a very un-Chiefs-like manner against a rudderless Green Bay team in week 9. The Cowboys laid their own egg in Week 9 but bounced back in an equally convincing manner. The Chiefs are 2 /12 point favorites, but I can’t see them covering. So much is banking on Mahomes in this game. The Chiefs’ defense obviously played better last week, but the are still ranked 24th over all. While we aren’t talking league leaders here, there is no category that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t better by a considerable margin, in particular at forcing turnovers. Prescott has matched Mahomes in most categories, including average yards and has far fewer interceptions. As far as pass protection goes, Mahomes has been sacked 17 times, and hit 58 times. The Dallas QBs have been sacked 14 times and hit 40. Mahomes has the advantage as a scrambler, but the Cowboys have a pair of top rushing threats in Elliot and Pollard. KC’s top rusher is 45th ranked Williams.

I don’t think this team is up to last years’ Chiefs, and t is going to take more than one convincing win to change my mind. So as the say in Missouri, “Show me”, and then I’ll back the Chiefs. Let’s not forget that ugly number of KC against the spread. 3 and 7! The Cowboys have the best offense in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they stole this game. Take Dallas

Colts vs Bills

How Jonathon Taylor goes, so go the Colts. While Taylor has been outstanding, his biggest days have been against inferior run defenses. The Bills have been formidable against pass and run, among other things such as third down and red zone defense and interceptions. Not to mention QB pressure. If Taylor comes up short, it will be tough on Wentz, who can be pretty average or worse (as in last week), to take up the slack with the passing game.

After an abysmal game in week 9, Allen and the Bills came out flying last week. Allen has been impressive other than week 9, with 100+ QB rankings in 6 of 7 games.The Colts pass defense has not impressed, with an average QBR allowed of close to 100 and a 23rd ranked pass yards average. And while it may come from several sources, the Bills running game is still 10th ranked, against a 17th ranked Colts rushing defense.

Beating the 6-3 Bills at home would be a feat. Can the Colts cover? If Buffalo can control the running game, this one could be lopsided. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Patriots/Falcons:

Ryan and the Falcons stunk out the field last week, Ryan finishing with no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a QB rating I can almost count on my fingers and toes. Jones was excellent last week, with his best game of his first year, but one game does not make him the reincarnate of Brady as some are suggesting. The Falcons at home and in the bright lights as well, are not going to want to be humiliated two weeks running. Ryan is a consummate professional and can’t play any worse than last week. I am looking for a bounceback from the Falcons, and maybe a slight fall off from a rookie QB and the Patriots. Don’t expect a win out of Atlanta but they’ll keep it close. Falcons +6.5

The 7-2 Rams face the home team 3-5 49ers. Both teams are off a loss; the Rams loss to the Titans particularly stung. Rams QB Stafford had a down game last week but he has been dominant this season with 8.89 yds per, and 23 Tds vs 6 interceptions. His opponent Garopollo has been ok for the season, and was decent in a losing cause last week, but his tenure is uncertain with the 49ers.

The Rams lost Woods, which will hurt and add Beckam in some capacity and possibly Von Miller. The 49ers are also beaten up, missing their #2 running back, and other key pieces.

The Rams have a pass-dominated offense, but can and may look to run the ball more this week. While the 49ers defense is strong against the pass, they are poor against the run. And while the 49ers don’t allow many passing yards, they still allow more than their share of passing TDs. The Rams defense protects well against the rush, but are average against the pass. They are very good defending in the red zone.

Garopollo was sacked 5 times last week, which is not normal, but a disturbing trend. The Addition of Von Miller, if available adds to an already decent pass rush.

The Rams have lost 4 straight against the 49ers. Off the loss last week, I like their chances to change that stat. The 49ers have lost 4 straight at home, and contrary to expectations, just don’t seem to have it together this season. Take the Rams to win and cover today

Anyone taking the Chiefs in this matchup is banking on a return to form from Mahomes. He has shown no sign of it, even in the win last week, throwing for only 166 yards, 1 TD, and 4.5 yds average. And it is not as if last week was a one-off. Carr wasn’t great last week either; while he threw for 260+ yards and a touchdown, he also threw two interceptions. He has allowed only five previous to that game. Carr can be explosive and has the highest pass yards average at 8.2 yds. To put this in context, Mahomes has been at 6.0 yds per completion since week 5. It is all about the passing game on Sunday; neither team has much of a running game, although the Raiders are improving.

The Chiefs’ defense is lamentable, poor against the run and pass. They are 30th in passing yards per attempt average, and tied with Raiders at 28th against the run. The Raiders are solid against the pass (14th) and very good at limiting passing yards per (2nd). Where the Raiders really excel is in pressuring the QB. They are 6th in QB pressure and 2nd in QB hits. It could be a long evening for Mahomes and Chiefs’ offensive line.

The Raiders have faced a ton of turmoil in the past weeks, but things should start to settle. Much is at stake in this game; I’m looking for Carr and the Raiders to put off-field issues behind them and cover if not win against the Chiefs.

The 3-6 Eagles are on the road against the 5-4 Broncos this week in what should be a close matchup. The Eagles running game has been very successful of late with three solid options, but the 8th ranked Broncos’ defense is much better than the Eagles’ last few opponents’. QB Hurts doesn’t throw for many yards, although he does contribute on the rush. Last week was one of his better outings, however he will face a very stiff Broncos pass defense.

For the Broncos, Bridgewater has been solid and accurate, if slow off the mark. He has been sacked often; the Broncos’ offensive line has the injury bug. The Eagles pass rush really struggled last week with no sacks, and little QB pressure. If this continues, look for Bridgewater to have a solid game, and pick the Eagles apart.. The Broncos also have a decent running game of their own, with two viable options. The Eagles rush defense struggles, allowing 120 yards per game.

The Broncos have a more balanced offense and a solid defense. They are tough to beat in Denver.  Look for them to gut this one out. Some very favorable odds are available, so don’t wait on this one!

Saints/Titans

The Titans, solid in their first game without Henry are home to the Saints who are without their starting QB and RB Kamara. Kamara is a huge part of the Saints’ rush and pass offense, and will be missed. The Saints did pick up RB Ingram, but he is not a complete replacement. Siemien played well in his two starts as backup QB, with 3 Tds and an 89.5 Qb rating. He has been well protected so far, but that may change this week. The Titans have been rough on passers, sacking the Rams Qb 5 times last week with 11 QB hits. The Saints will struggle to score points. Their passing attack is 31st rated; it and the run will both take a hit without Kamara.

The Saints are a very well coached team, and have a highly ranked defense against the run. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They do not defend against the pass very well, so it may be time for Tannehill to step up the Titans’ passing game. Tannehill has been average this year, but seems to generate offense when needed. Tannehill has been sacked 27 times this season, but the 31st ranked Saints don’t muster much of a pass rush, He has been intercepted 8 times, so controlling turnovers will be a key on Sunday.

The Titans defense is average against the run, better than the Saints against the pass, but where they excel is getting to the QB. The Titans have handled some potent offenses in their five game win streak; the Saints, missing key players, would not qualify in this category. Tennessee is a successful team at home, and have a lot of momentum at the moment. Some decent odds are available. Take the Titans to win and cover.

Ravens/Dolphins

Much has been made of the Raven’s ability to dumb it down this season vs poorer teams; they ARE only 3-5 against the spread. Miami is worse ATS at 3-6, which is a point to consider. After being shelled last week with favorites failing to cover, the last thing I want to do is pick another favorite, but the Ravens and Jackson are too potent and explosive, and the Dolphins’ 30th ranked defense too poor to do otherwise.

The Ravens defend poorly against the pass, but they will face a questionable Tagovailoa, with an injured throwing hand, or Brissett, who was hardly dominant last week. The Dolphins have no running game to speak about, and a struggling offensive line. Not to mention, a very high rate of turnovers.

MvP candidate Lamar Jackson is a quality passer and a top ten rusher. The Ravens’ offense has surpassed 400 yds 4 times this season, and is more than capable of the “big plays”. And don’t forget their kicker, who can add three consistently from anywhere over center.

With a damaged quarterback, the Dolphins may have to turn to the running game, and this is one area where the 23rd rated Ravens’ defense does excel.

Take the Ravens to win and, yes, cover..

Monday Night Football pits the Bears, off three losses, vs the Steelers, winners of three in a row. As the Steelers offensive line gels and the running game gains traction, Roethlisberger’s stock is on the rise once again. Last week he passed for 266 Yds, a TD and had a 98.4 QB rate. Rookie Najee Harris has showed remarkable improvement in his first season, and had 91 yards rushing last week. The Steelers broke the 100 yds mark three times in the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 14 sacks, and have only 7 turnovers.

Last week was Rookie Justin Field’s best game, but he IS the 32nd rated QB, very inexperienced, and averaging just 123 ypg passing with 7 interceptions. The kid can run, last week for over 100 yds, but having been sacked 26 times already this season, it is probably out of self-preservation. The Bears are 6th in rushing yards, but overall their offense is as low as it gets.

The Steelers defense is solid and improving. They are very strong in pressuring the passer, sacks, controlling the run and they don’t allow a ton of points against.

The Bears’ defense has been uncharacteristically poor of late. In their 3 game skid, the Bears have allowed over 140 yds rushing per game, and had no sacks last week.

The Steelers are at home, and are on a roll. It seems it is a favorites day for me, but I believe the Steelers will win and cover.

Titans/Rams

The Rams are a 71/2 point favorite this week against the Titans. I have had my struggles this season with favorites covering, but here is one to trust. The loss of Titans’ running back Henry is inestimable, not just in replacing his yards (they can’t) but in the impact on Tannehill, the offensive line and the passing game. Without the threat of Henry, Tannehill, already sacked 24 times, will spend even more time on his butt, and a dimension of the now critical passing game is lost.

The Titans are up against a very hot QB and team in the Rams. Stafford was terrific last week, has 22 TDs against 4 interceptions, and has a connection with Cooper Kupp that more than equals the Tannehill-Brown pairing. The Rams’ offensive line is best in the league allowing just 8 sacks, and very good at blocking for the run. And let us not forget that Henderson JR. is the seventh ranked rusher in the NFL.

The Rams defense is the best in the league at sacking the QB, and good against the pass. It is not know if their huge addition, Von Miller, will play this week but it would be a huge boost.

I am sure it will take the Titans some games to adjust to their Henry-less universe. Take the Rams to win and cover against the Titans this week.

Falcons vs Saints

The Saints are down a starting QB, the Falcons, their top receiver. This may impact the Falcons more, as the Falcons are an extremely pass-centric team, and Matt Ryan has few effective targets as it is. New Orleans will start Siemien at QB. He filled in very well by any standards last week. They likely will miss Winston but the Saints are not a very pass-focused offense. They have a solid running game around Kamara, and it just got a lot better with the deadline addition of Ingram. Ingram is a former Saint, and should fit in easily and well.

This game pits the 27th and the 31st rated offenses in yards per game. With such low offensive yardage, Saints have a better record and score more points than might be expected considering these numbers. They are a very well coached team, and have the 4th ranked defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They are also 2nd in the league in defensive points scored, which is significant in low scoring games.

Ryan is a competent QB, but with little support from his receivers, no running game and an ineffective offensive line, he is often left hung out to dry. And while the Atlanta defends well against the pass, they have the 26th rated defense against the run.

I think the running game will be key in this match-up. Look for a solid performance from Kamara and co. and the New Orleans defense, in another low scoring game. Take the Saints to win and cover.

Jets/Colts

The Jets were a great story in week seven. Worst knocks off first with the backup quarterback leading the way. They ought to make a movie.. White wasn’t just good; he ended with 400 passing yards and a very high pass completion rate. He was poised and conservative, with no passes over 15 yards. How will he do this week? The Colts’ pass rush is not overwhelming, with 16 sacks, and the defense has allowed 243 yds passing to date..

The Jets had huge and affirmative press this week, but was Week 8 just a one-off? This is the same Jets team that lost to the Patriots 54-13 the previous week, that has a running game of 75 yards a game, and 3.6 avg carry.i

The Colts are off a loss, with Carson Wentz in the hot seat. Wentz had his worst performance of the year, and ended the game with some key errors in judgment. He was back to last year’s habit, throwing two interceptions. It is hard to know how he will respond, but he might want to check out White’s last week performance for some ideas. Wentz has been hit an astounding 61 times this season and sacked 16 times. The Jets pass rush is improving, but they are not a force at this moment.

The Colts have the advantage of a very strong running game, with Jonathon Taylor leading the way. Taylor is also a very good pass target. Again, Wentz might want to rely more on the run, as the Jets are not effective in defending against the run.

There is a ton of pressure on Wentz to perform this week, and no guarantees as to his response. On the other side, the Colts are forewarned about White. Any win will buoy up the Jets, and they must be riding high this week. I think the Jets will cover, but don’t expect an outright win..

Giants/Chiefs

Before everything gets out of proportion, does anyone think that Mahomes will ever play as poorly as he did last week again? Even after last week’s debacle, the Chiefs still have the 3rd ranking offense. And yes they do have the fifth worst defense, but don’t forget that the Giants have the 27th rated defense AND the 20th ranked offense. So where has the Giants’ defense looked strong(er)? Not at applying pressure on the QB (29th) or QB hits (20th). They have created turnovers, but they are poor vs the run and barely average vs the pass. The Giants had 6 sacks last week, but that was not typical. Mahomes should have more protection this week, and perhaps the Chiefs will take the opportunity to try something different on Sunday, like step out with the running game.

Jones has been a middle of the road but improving QB this year, and the Giants have their star running back and 2 top receivers out this week. Don’t look for a ton of points from the Giants, even against a struggling defense.

The Chiefs are vulnerable, but I don’t think the Giants match up as a team that can exploit their weaknesses. Given his opportunity this week against the Giants, I am looking for the Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back. Take Kansas City to win and cover.

Cowboys/Vikings.

Sunday night football will be well worth watching this week as the high-scoring Cowboys meet the improving Vikings. The Cowboys’ big concern is whether Prescott will play, but it appears he will. Both teams are off a bye, and both had wins in week 6. The Cowboys won in a mistake-filled game against the Patriots, with Prescott airing it out for seasonal best 445 yds. Prescott has been more than impressive this year with a QB rating of 115, and 16 TDs opposed to 4 interceptions. We will see how he does against a tough Minnesota pass rush. The Cowboys balance their offense with a very potent “a 1 and a 2” punch running game.

Cousins was equally impressive in week 6, with 300 yds and 3 interceptions. Cousins has a QB rating of 105 for the season. The Vikings running game in the name of Dalvin Cook had a season-high yds total, and Cook looked in better health. The Vikings defense have a very good pass rush, causing low pass completion rates, with a very high number of sacks. Where they struggle is against the run, both in yards allowed, and average carry. This is concerning considering the Cowboys’ twin threats of Elliot and Pollard.

While the Cowboys defense do not pressure opposing quarterbacks very effectively, and give up too many passing yards, they have caused a very high total of interceptions. They are also very good this year in shutting down the run.

This is a very potent Cowboys offense that has managed to outscore any defensive miscues to this point, and their defense is much improved over last year. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread, and the Vikings are 3-3. I am looking for the Cowboys to go 7-0 ATS and to again win and cover.

Bengals/Jets

It would be a major upset for the Jets to cover against the a surprisingly good Bengals team, especially now with an inexperienced back up QB Mike White in the game. Last week, Burrow was impressive against a much better opponent, passing for more than 400 yds and 3 touchdowns. The Burrow to Chase connection has been a real eye-opener. Burrow’s only real negative is the number of interceptions he has thrown. The Bengals offensive line is improving, but allowed Burrow to be sack regularly in early games. The Jets’ pride is their pass rush. The Jets only hope of keeping the score down, other than Bengals complacency, is to take advantage the Bengals’ weak point, and pressure Burrow into committing more turnovers.

To cover, the Jets will have to put points on the board and that does not look promising with an offense that doesn’t rush or pass well, against a Bengals’ defense that is strong vs both. The Jets are the only team with more interceptions allowed (11) than the Bengals.

Bengals RB Mixon had an off game last week, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against the Jets.

Bengals will win and cover against the Jets.

Thursday night Football pits the 6-1 Packers on the road vs the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals beat up on the lowly Texans last week. The Packers were not really as impressive in their win against Washington as the score might suggest. The Cardinals have faced much stiffer competition in their 7-0 run than Green Bay has faced. In addition, Green Bay is likely down their top pair of wide receivers, which was enough to drive up the line this week. The Cardinals are reasonably healthy.

On paper, the Cardinals lead the Packers in all major offensive and defensive situations, including QB.

2nd rated Murray has completed a higher % passes for more yards and more points than 6th rated Aaron Rodgers. The only advantage Rodgers has in in interceptions allowed. And a lot of experience..

Quarterbacks aside, a key to this game will be whether the Packers’ defense can handle (or not) the Cardinal’s running game. The 23rd rated defense allowed 430 total yards against Washington, and have been very poor vs the run and in the red zone for much of the season. They have 18 sacks. The Cardinals defense has been solid against the pass, at least average against the run and has 19 sacks.

I don’t think Rodgers can pull this one out of the hat; too many parts are missing and just too much competition this week. Take the Cardinals to win and cover.

The 3-2 Saints meet up with the 2-4 Seahawks in Seattle in the wind and the rain. The Saints offense has modest passing yards and good rushing stats, but they are a big bang for the buck in the scoring department. So far this season they have been exceptional in the red zone. Quarterback Jameis Winston is 5th in the league in QB ratings with 12 TDs against 3 interceptions. His passing yards have increased dramatically each week in his last 4 starts, from 111 yards to 279 yds in their last game.

Where the Saints excel is on defense, especially against the run (3.3 yds avg, 79 yds/ game). While they may not have much of a pass rush, they defend well against the pass and in the red zone, and have 9 interceptions already.

The Seahawks, ARW have Geno Smith at QB for the next weeks, a considerable step down. Without the mobility of Wilson, Smith was sacked 5 times behind a suspect Seahawks offensive line. The Seahawks have allowed a total of 18 sacks this season already. Smith was 15 of 18 last week with a turnover, but passing yards avg. was only 3.25 yards

The Seahawks defense struggles against the run. Given the conditions on Monday night, a running game may be paramount. Collins ran for 101 yds last week, but overall the Saints have the edge, defensively and offensively. Collins is either playing injured or out at this point, so it could be Saints running back Kamara who steps out.

I like the well-rested Saints in this game. Shop around and take New Orleans to win and cover.

Colts/49ers

The Colts are on an upward trend, thumping the Texans in week 6 and winning two of three games. Carson Wentz, recovered from ankle sprains, passed for 625 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games and has allowed one interception in 6 games. He has been extremely poised considering the pressure he has faced behind the Colts’ struggling offensive line, and is turning into a big play machine. RB Jonathon Taylor is turning heads with his recent play, and rushed for 145 yds against the Texans. The 49ers are average against the rush and the game is expected to be played in the mud so watch for another big game from Taylor.

The Colts defense is strong against the run and good at creating turnovers, but they do not excel in defense against the pass, nor do they apply a lot of pressure on the passer. They face Garoppolo, who is returning from injury and has mobility issues. It would not be unfair to say Garoppolo has struggled in his last two games played. His completion rate is down, yards per attempt down. He has passed for 3 touchdowns in 2 games, and has two interceptions. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, and in the bottom third of the NFL. They have had a bye week to sort out this side of the offense and the run will be important if field conditions are what is expected. They are 8th rated against the pass this year.

I see the Colts and as the team with momentum. I like Wentz’s ability to handle pressure and control the game. The running game will be important on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a real edge there. Take the Colts to cover if not win.

Detroit Lions @ LA Rams

Not only am I expecting the Rams to win today, I'm expecting them to win in absolute blowout fashion.

In a contest which I envision being completely lop-sided in nature, I'm going to suggest laying the points with confidence in what I predict will be an absolute ATS blood-bath!

The Lions are terrible. They're 0-6 and off a 34-11 home loss to the Bengals. QB Jared Goff was just 28 of 42 for 202 yards and an interception. Jamal Williams has been a bright spot for Detroit offensively, so far he has 255 yards on 69 rushes. Defensively though the Lions are horrible as well, entering allowing 28.7 PPG.

The Rams are conceding 21.2. LA QB Matt Stafford will be out to bury his former team today. Keep your eyes on Cooper Kupp, who already has 635 receiving yards this year for the Rams.

LA is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, while Detroit is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog.

I expect LA to have no mercy here as it keeps the pedal to the metal until the final whistle. The play is LA.

Panthers/Giants

Losers of three straight, the Panthers take on the 1-5 Giants on the road. The Panthers are still missing McCaffrey and it shows. Darnold was poor last week again, completing only 17 of 41 passes with one interception. On a positive note he did finish with a very fine drive to tie the game up.

The Panthers haven’t run much since the loss of CMC, but with a sputtering pass-focused offense, this is expected to change. This would be a fine time to step it up as the Giants struggle against the run.

The Carolina defense was uncharacteristically poor in week 6 allowing 4 TDs and giving up monster yardage. Let us hope that this is not the new norm. To date they are first in pass rush and have 16 sacks.

A strong pass rush is bad news for the Giants, as their wounded offensive line has been brutal. If Darnold was poor, then Jones was worse, with 3 interceptions and a fumble. The Giants to date have an indifferent running attack.

The Giants 25th rated defense showed itself, giving up four touchdowns as well, but this is not unexpected. They are very poor against pass as well as the run.

What to expect in this matchup? Look for a better performance from the Panthers’ defense for one thing. With the amount of pressure that Carolina can bring, look for Jones to struggle again. I expect a better game form Darnold, with more protection. Take the Panthers to win and cover.

Broncos/Browns

The Browns have a slew of injuries, including QB, a pair of running backs, and key pieces in the offensive line. When your leaders in passing, rushing and TDs are all out, the offense is in trouble. Not to mention a short week for Keenum to put things together. They are still 3 point favorites. Which doesn’t say much for the 3-3 Broncos, off three straight losses.

Bridgewater will start for the Broncos, but he is limping as well. He was sacked five times, and was hit well in the double figures last game. While he threw for three touchdowns, he also had three interceptions.

The highly touted Browns defense has stumbled badly two games in a row. Two stats to note; the Browns are 29th in the NFL in takeaways, and they are only averaging 2 sacks per game in their last two starts. The Broncos defense is rated at 9th which may be generous. They have been solid against the run. The Browns defense is reasonably intact, and may show up after two poor games. With an injury-weakened offensive line and a reserve quarterback, the Browns may not be putting up many points. Give Keenum at least the first half to find his feet. Take this game to go under the total in the first half.

Bills vs Titans

Off a blow-out over KC and 4 straight wins, The Bills appear to be more than a match for anyone. The Titans are 3-2, but have some key injuries, and will be banking on powerhouse Derrick Henry and the run again. How the Bills handle Henry will be a key today. They have been very good at controlling the run thus far. Last week aside, Tannehill has been very average, with low touchdown totals. The Titans offensive line has been picked apart, allowing a painful 25 sacks. Not to mention, the Bills have the best defense against the pass in the league.

Jake Allen has been effective and efficient, with talk of MVP thrown around. He has passed for 12 touchdowns, with just 2 interceptions, and has run the ball very successfully. Add to this a balanced running attack, against a Titans defense that has struggled on the ground and in the air.

This game is all Buffalo. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Seattle Seahawks/Pittsburgh Steelers 

For me, this one is simple. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both going to be trying to establish the run game today. The Seahawks especially since QB Russell Wilson went down with injury last week.

Geno Smith has always been a "game manager," and that'll again be the case today as he's thrust into the spotlight in this difficult road venue.

Pittsburgh rookie RB Najee Harris ran for a career-best 122 yards and a TD in last week's 27-19 win over the Broncos and I expect him to have another big day here against this weak Seattle defensvie front. 

The total has gone under in Pittsburgh's last eight games against the NFC and I expect that trend to continue here in the first half on Sunday night. The play is the under in the first half.

Cowboys vs Patriots

The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Are the Cowboys, finally, the real thing? Dak Prescott has the Dallas offense purring along with a fine balance between pass and run. 2nd in points scored, the Cowboys have out scored the Patriots by an almost 2 to 1 margin. The Cowboys are out-rushing the Patriots by more than a 2-1 margin, and while the Patriots’ overall defense has been steady, they are only 15th in defense against the run. Dallas is far superior with success in the red zone.

New England, in victory, did not impress in Week 5. The Patriots just haven’t scored a lot of points this season. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is inexperienced but improving, but with only 5 TDs so far. And while the Patriots have allowed 5 fewer points per game this season, Cowboys’ maligned defense has thrived is in creating turnovers. Diggs has more than an interception a game. Jones and the Patriots have been very poor at hanging on to the ball. This could be a significant factor in week 6.

The Cowboys opened at -3 ½ . The line is climbing, and for good reason. Jump on this game early and take the Cowboys to cover.

Vikings vs Panthers

Off a pair of losses, the Panthers need a win here. The big bad news for the Panthers is that McCaffrey is not, as was expected, back for the Panthers. This impacts the running game, but it also limits QB Darnold. There is no easy out from the exceptional pressure he has faced this season. The Panthers’ offensive line has not been effective. Darnold had a very poor game in week 5, but it is hard to compete with your butt on the turf. He’s had 5 turnovers in the last two games and has been sacked 14 times this season. Without McCaffrey, the Panthers offense is really sputtering. A telling stat; Carolina is only converting 38% of third down situations.

As much as the Panthers need a win, The Vikings need a road victory in week 6 for any chance of a successful season. The big good news for QB Cousins and the Vikings is that RB Dalvin Cook is returning. From a low point against the Browns and just 7 points scored, Cousins has been on something of a rebound. But will we still see the methodical and conservative approach to offense of previous weeks? Likely so..

Two very strong defenses will put their mark on this game. Both defenses have been very successful in limiting passing and rushing this season. The Vikings defense are third in the league in sacks and the Panthers just 1 back at 16. The Panthers excel at applying quick pressure on the passer. Both defenses are very good in limiting third down conversions.

This match up does not look conducive to a high points total. Take the Vikings and Panthers to go under the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Bucs are off back-to-back wins at the Patriots and over the Dolphins last weekend and I like the defending champs to keep the good times rolling again here.

With ten days off after this before a game at home against Chicago, I expect Tom Brady to take advantage of this suspect Philly secondary.

Jalen Hurts has shown plenty of promise and while he may go on to become the next Donovan McNabb, this is a huge step-up in competition for the rookie QB. I just don't trust Hurts on the national stage against the Super Bowl Champs.

I think this Bucs' defense is underrated as well and I believe it's going to have a big day here against this young Philly offense.

Lay the points and expect a blowout. GUNSLINGER on Tampa.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens 

The Colts are not having the season that they had hoped for so far. After losing 3 straight, they finally cracked the winning collumn in last weeks victory over the Dolphins. Indy has now seen 4 of thier last 5 games finish OVER the Total.

For thw Ravens, the've stated 3-1, undefeated since the OT loss in week 1. In last week's win, they scored 17 points themselves in the first half. I expect them to have their foot on the gas again in this one.

With the Colts needing a win and the Ravens looking to put up points right out of the gate, I believe there's no question that this game should be a hugh scoring game right from the start. Take the 1st Half OVER

Buffalo Bills @ KC Chiefs

This is an important game for both teams, but I'd say much more to the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs though enter off a big 42-30 win at Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that they lost two tough games agasint the Ravens and Chargers. 

Buffalo has been exceptional on both sides of the ball. It averages 33.5 PPG, while allowing 11.0, but that's definitely due to the level of competition its faced so far (a 35-0 win over Houston stands out obviously.)

KC's defense has been its weak point to this point. But, I still like KC to dig deep here against a Buffalo side that's just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October.

The Chiefs would have had this game circled on the calendar, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to deliver.

The play is KC.

Giants vs. Cowboys

Daniel Jones and the Giants face the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys in their second straight road game. The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Dallas. Jones is coming off his best game of the season. His pass completion % is up considerably. In Week 4, he threw for 400 yds and 2 TDs. Jones has been turn-over prone, but hasn’t shown it thus far this season. Week 5 may be the game this changes. The Cowboys defense is 2nd in takeaways, and 1st in interceptions.

The Giants aren’t healthy, and struggle against the pass and the run at the best of times. Pitted against a very balanced Cowboys’ offense will likely prove too much for the 1-3 Giants.  Zak Prescott has had a stellar start, in full recovery from his ankle injury in week 5 of last year. This will be a bit of a hallmark game. This season, he has thrown 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. The Giants lead the league in 1st downs, and have a potent, two pronged running game as well. Dallas is 4-0 ATS this season. Oh, and when you hear about the “improved” Dallas defense, it isn’t THAT much better. They still are 2nd worst in passing yards allowed.

It won’t be a blow out, but look for the Cowboys to cover again against the Giants. Dallas to win -7.

NY Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

We're back in London in Week 5 with the Jets taking on the Falcons.

Many thought the #2 overall pick in the Draft would be a difference maker, but Zach Wilson has been the exact opposite so far. In 4 starts, Wilson only has 925 passing yards with 4TDs thrown while turning the ball over 10 times (8INTs 2Fumbles.) Not only has he been bad, but the team is even worse. Dating back to last season they've only won 3 of thier last 20 games. That's miserable.

Atlanta comes into this one 1-3 as well, but they've definitely shown some promise. Matty Ice has thrown 8TDs with 3INTs so far and the rest of the offense has been decent. Although they are still solid, the Falcons will be missing superstar WR Calvin Ridley in this one. Look for rookie Kyle Pitts and Olamide Zaccheaus to have bigger roles in this one.

Both teams are dealing with injuries and both teams aren't the best. I think this comes down to the two QB's here. Give me experience over an unconfident rookie anyday of the week. Take ATL

LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Coming off a huge loss against the Cardinals on Sunday, LA looks to rebound against the always dangerous Seahawks. In all honesty, the Rams did not look good at all last week. The offense didn't looked their stringest and the defense seemed not like themselves.

The Seahawks are off a much needed victory against the Niners last week. Wilson didn't put up the most insane numbers, but he got the job done. This is also a revenge game for Seattle as these are the guys that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Look for Metcalf to be hungrier than ever to figure out how to beat Ramsey's seconday. 

With the Seahawks at home in primetime, I think the crowd is going to be the difference in this one. Expect a highly competitive game throughout the entire thing, but for Seattle and the 12th man to come out on top. Take the Seahawks.

Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers

Entering this game, the Raiders are 3-0 with significant victories against the Ravens and the Steelers. They also beat the Dolphins in a thriller last week. In each of those games, they scored at least 26 points with an average of 30ppg. The Raiders have also seen the total go OVER in 8 of their last 9 games dating back to last season against AFC opponets.

For the Chargers, they'll come in very confident after beating Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Herbert has looked excellent so far and his top 2 WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have also looked very strong. As long as Ekeler keeps providing with his rushing and catching, the Chargers will definitely score a lot in this one. 

Last year, when these two teams played (twice of course,) both games ended with 57 points. I expect another game with a similar, if not higher number here tonight. Take the OVER. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

I think perhaps one of the biggest public plays of the weekend will be the Tampa Bay Bucs, but I think that Mac Jones and New England will prove to be a tough opponent on Sunday night at home. 

Of course Brady wants to beat his old team badly, but his old team wants to beat him badly as well. Jones has struggled somewhat to begin the season, but he now faces a Bucs' defense which has for the most part struggled to contain teams this year. 

Brady struggled against the Rams aggressive pass rush last weekend and he'll now face a very similar attack here in his old stomping grounds as well. 

Other than the QB position, I say that New England likely has the better defense and special teams units, which makes these teams pretty much even in my books. 

Outright win? Sure, it's definitely possible. But why not grab up all these points?! New England Patriots is the play.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

After the week 1 OT loss to the Raiders, the Ravens have now won two straight and are on a roll. In week two, they shocked Mahomes and the chiefs, and last week Justin Tucker set the new record for longest FG in history.In thier last 13 games against the Broncos, Baltimore is 9-4 ATS.

For the Broncos, they have surprisingly started the season 3-0. Although they are 3-0, they've played some of the worst teams in the league. QB Teddy Bridgewater will need to have the game of his life to keep up with this explosive Ravens O this Sunday.

With Denver having faced no real competition yet, I expect the Ravens to give them a run for thier money here today. Give me Baltimore.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC.

The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC.

A pair of former #1 draft picks aside, my interest in this game is “Are the Bengals for real”. To start with, here is why the Jaguars are not. This is a team that has allowed 300+ passing yard per game and has led the league in turnovers. Outside of the hype, the Jags’ rookie quarterback is only three games into a pro career and it shows. A passing % of 54 and 7 interceptions does not cut it.

In contrast, Joe Burrow has been more than steady with a 70+% pass completion rate, 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. Last week, the Bengals’ offensive line far outperformed the Steelers’. In terms of sacks, it was Bengals 4, Steelers 0.

In week three, the Jags were leading into the third quarter. Lawrence burned one in the end zone and the Jaguars folded. It is rare for the Bengals to be a favorite AND in the limelight of TNF. I am looking for them to rise to the occasion this time. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

The bottom line is here, I simply can't see the Eagles keeping pace with Dak Prescott and this high-flying Cowboys offense. Dallas has proven it can compete in a high-scoring shootout, like its Week 1 loss in Tampa, while also grinding out a victory in a defensive affair (like last week's win at the Chargers.) Philadelphia man-handled the Falcons in Week 1, but then it looked terrible in last week's humbling home loss to the 49ers. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home in this series, while Philly is just 2-6 ATS its last eight after an ATS home loss in which it posted 15 or less points in. But, we're going to bypass the spread option here though, and instead take the Cowboys on the MONEY-LINE.

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers 

Things didn’t look so good for Aaron Rodgers after week 1. But he definitely showed the world that he’s not done yet after last weeks performance against the Lions.  They scored an easy 35 points and definitely could have scored more in the win. This week, Rodgers returns to his hometown and I believe he is bound to do something special yet again.

Off the win against the Eagles, the Niners are now 2-0 to start the year. Last week they didn’t score that much. But they looked strong offensively and could have put up more than they did. In week one they went way OVER the total and I expect another high scoring game.

Both teams are really good offensively and I expect a shootout in this one. Take the OVER.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings

Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today.

Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but  the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff.

With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Off a shootout win in week 2 I’m expecting another similar game here. Kyler Murray has looked like he could put up points in his sleep so far this season. The Cards have now scored 34+ in both their first two games.

The Jags defense has looked awful so far. Giving up 37 to the Texans in week 1, and 23 to the Broncos last week. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been the greatest, but I believe that he’s going to show the world that he isn’t a bust quite yet here in this one.

The Cardinals will definitely score, it'll just be a matter if Jacksonville can keep up and I believe Lawrence is up for the task. Take the OVER.

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans 

Off back to back wins to open up the year, the Panthers are now one of the last 7 teams with an undefeated record. Having said that, they are battling some injuries. McCaffrey, who is going to play, is dealing with a minor calf injrury. Youngsters, Yetor Gross Matos and Troy Pride are going to miss this one though.

Off a loss to the Browns, the Texans also saw their QB Tyrod Taylor get hurt. Now, the rookie Davis Mills steps in the starting role and looks to prove himself. They looked very sharp in week 1 and I believe that they'll bounce back in a huge way this week.

Although Carolina is the better team, 8.5 points is a lot, considering Houston is the home team. I'll gladly take the points here.

Detroit @ GB.

Two divisional opponents off Week 1 losses collide in Week 2.

Detroit's offense actually looked quite good in last weeks' 41-33 loss to the 49ers (especially considering the way the 49ers' held the high-flying Eagles to just 11 points on their own field on Sunday after they scored 32 in their Week 1 win at Atlanta.) Jared Goff was 38 of 57 for 338 yards.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers uncharacteristically struggled in their 38-3 season-opening loss at New Orleans (interesting though, that game was played at Jacksonville instead of New Orleans because of Hurricane Ida. Traveling to Jacksonville is tough, but especially on short notice. That was a game that completely favored the Saints. New Orleans looked poor in its loss at Carolina on Sunday.)

Rodgers though is going to benefit greatly from being in friendly confines and facing a poor Lions' defense which just conceded 41 points to San Francisco (which could only muster 19 in yesterday's win at Philadelphia.)

Look for these experienced "gun-slingers" to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the over.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0.

The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time.

These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing.

I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Bucs

Both teams have veteran quarterbacks. That's where the similarities stop. The Buccaneers are stacked. The Falcons are not. Tampa scored 31 against Dallas. Atlanta allowed 32 against Philadelphia. 

The Buccaneers limited Elliott and the Dallas running game in the opener. They're 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were off a game where they allowed 90 or fewer rushing yards. 

The Super Bowl champs play with some extra rest, due to their game having been played on a Thursday. The Falcons fell to 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight September games. Last meeting was a 17-point Tampa win. Take the Bucs

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Mac Jones has lived up to what he did in college so far. Many thought he was going to be a bust, but the most accurate passer in CFB history definitely looked solid in week 1. If they can generate 393 total yards again, I guarantee that they'll score more than 16 this time.

Despite Zach Wilson looking good in his debut, the Jets lost thier opener against their old QB in Sam Darnold in week 1. Their defense wasn't the strongest as they gave up 381 yards of offense in the loss. Dating back to last season, NYJ has seen the total go OVER in 4 of thier last 6 games against oppoents from the AFC. 

I know both of these teams have rookies starting, but with the two of them off UNDER's to open the season up, I expect a tough fought high scoring battle between these guys today. Ride the OVER.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Off a "roller coaster ride" Monday Nighter in week 1, the Raiders will have to go up against one of the best, if not the best defenses in the league without thier star running back in Josh Jacobs. Vegas hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh either as they are only 1-4 in their last five games played on the road at Heinz Field.

For the Steelers, they made Josh Alllen look human and took it to Buffalo in week 1. That win made them 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of September. I expect RB Najee Harris to run right through this Raiders defense that is experiencing a lot of injuries as of late.

Both off wins, both teams will be looking for that 2-0 start. But I believe that this stacked Steelers team will be too much to handle for the Raiders without Jacobs on Sunday. Take PITT.

NY Giants @ Washington

We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners.

The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. 

Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under.

Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number.

The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number.

Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing.

The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9.

The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10*

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. 

The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. 

Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well.

When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call.

Denver Broncos @ NY Giants

Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod as the starter for the Broncos week 1. Although he's been a bit shaky thoughout his career, I believe that Denver should be the right place for him. Courtland Sutton is back, and with a sharppened up defense, this Broncos team could be strong.

While the Giants picked up Kenny Golladay, they haven't shown us much yet. Last year, they finished 6-10 and I expect something similar this season. Dating back to last season. NYG is also a sad 1-7 in theur last 8 games played against teams from the AFC. 

Expect the young Broncos team to come out with fire off the Opening kickoff here. Take Denver ML.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Off a wildcard loss to theur divisional rival Rams, the Seahawks are coming back stronger than ever this season. Always dangerous Russell Wilson threw for 40+ TDs last season as well as rushing for a few. This year, look for Metcalf and Lockett to both reach the 1000 yard mark once again.

The Colts have been all over the place this offseason. Trading for Carson Wentz. Wentz then gets hurt and has to go through surgery. Not only that, but when he was at the end of his recovery he tested positive for Covid. Even through all of that, he was named starter and I expect him to be  a bit rusty in this one. Don't forget, offensvie lineman Quenton Nelson also had to undergo surgery this offseason. The Colts are also a terrible 0-7 in their L7 games played in Week 1. 

Having said all that, the Seahawks are by far the healthier team and I expect another great season from them. Look for them to involve Chris Carson a lot this season as well. Take the Seahawks +2.5 with ease.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys are a different team with Prescott behind center. They can trade punches with any team on offense, even the defending Super Bowl Champions.

The Buccaneers were clearly peaking at the right time in January/February. We're into September now. They can't be expected to immediately perform at the level they were. 

It's possible that one team could pull away late in the second half but I expect this game to remain close most of the way. The line is generous. Take the points with the Cowboys (1st Half)

The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Obviously for most it would be "offense." No question about it, these two QB's were once a couple of the most prolific in the league. Both offensively and defensively, these teams are pretty evenly matched. With two whole weeks to prepare and scheme though, I think these defenses are the ones that will benefit the most. 

The pick: This is a big game for both teams. The Bucs want to become the first team to win a Super Bowl on their own field. Brady wants to win another Super Bowl to add to his legacy. The Chiefs are trying to become the first team to repeat in 16 years. These teams met in Tampa in Week 12 and the Chiefs won that game 27-24. But note that KC took the foot off the gas in that one, allowing 14 fourth-quarter points. Brady took advantage of a suspect Green Bay defense, but he already struggled once against KC this season and I expect that to happen again here. In my opinion, this one sets up as a defensive "chess match," not a "shootout." 

This a 9* play on the UNDER Chiefs/Bucs.

The set-up: I played on the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship and I play on the Bucs in the NFC Conference Championship. These teams are similar in many respects, but I think that the Chiefs are the better overall team through all three phases. Better QB and offense. Equal defense and better special teams. Yes, Tom Brady has a plethora of experience at this level, and while they've looked very good to reach this point, team chemistry and this most elite level is in question in my opinion. Not so for Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and this deep Chiefs offense. 

The pick: This will truly be a passing of the torch moment for the NFL. I'm not going to break down individual stats, because I'm not basing this pick entirely on stats. As I said, these teams have similar numbers. They're really good in almost every department. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win this game straight up, but as I also mentioned the intangibles that KC brings to the table here, and along with Reid, who is a master when he has a week or more to prepare for a game. I repsect Brady and I think the Bucs are for sure the best team in the NFC.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The set-up: Whether Patrick Mahomes plays or not, I think the Chiefs are deep and talented enough to pull off a victory here at home over the Bills. Buffalo is now definitely in unchartered territory. With Josh Allen under center, this Bills team has a shot at competing with any team in the league. Buffalo's weakness this year is definitely on the defensive side of the ball though and I think that'll be its downfall finally here in this difficult road venue.

The pick: The Chiefs have had lapses in concentration this year (lost at home to the Raiders), but overall the reason they eclipsed their team season win total for an eighth straight year was because of an improved defense. KC is loaded with offensive and defensive talent and I like Andy Reid to have a masterful plan cooked up here to deal with the potential of Mahomes being sidelined. The game of Football is about more than just one player obviously and in this case, I think that the defending champs still have more than enough pieces in place to pull off another victory and advance to the Super Bowl. I'm laying the points!

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs.

The set-up: Is Aaron Rodgers the better QB in this matchup? At this point of their careers, I'd say that's the case. That said, on any given night, clearly Tom Brady has enough left in the tank to beat any team or person on the planet. This game isn't going to be decided though by Brady and Rodgers. Night in and night out, we almost always know what we can expect from these two legends. I think each will be on top of his game. For me, this one is going to be decided by defense, special teams and the Bucs superior run game. The Rams ran out of gas last weekend, but the Bucs come to town full of energy and on a mission. 

The pick: Note as well that the Packers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after allowing 20 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory in their last outing. I think the Bucs can control this game through all three phases and while I do expect an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

The is an 8* ROUT on the Bucs.

The set-up: This is a big game for two legendary QB's. Drew Brees is reportedly retiring at the end of the season. The Saints won both games over Tampa Bay in the regular season, so Tom Brady will definitely be out for some final revenge here now that the playoffs are here. I think that both Brady and Brees are going to be the main focal points in tomorrow's summaries, as I'm expecting an old fashioned shootout in New Orleans on Sunday night. 

The pick: Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS road victory in its last outing, while the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of their last 21 after allowing ten or less points in a SU/ATS victory in their last game. Considering the circumstances listed above, I do indeed feel this number is a little low.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Saints.

The set-up: The Browns played to a high-scoring victory on the road in Pittsburgh, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time producing that same energy here in this difficult road venue. The Browns played terrible defensively last time out and the last thing they'll want to do here in my estimation, is to turn this into another "track meet" and try to hang with Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs on their own field. That's never going to work. It worked against Pittsburgh, but if the Browns are going to pull off another unlikely upset, they'll have to run the ball first while on offense, while hoping to win the field position battle as well. 

The pick: KC has an underrated defensive unit this year. It's been burned a few times, but overall the Chiefs once again exceeded their season win total and that was due in large part to an improved defensive unit. I'll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. From my calculations, this number is indeed a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Browns/Chiefs.

The set-up: The Ravens finally got over the hump in Tennessee in their Wildcard matchup, revenging last year's Playoff loss, as well as a regular season setback. The Ravens have been consistently inconsistent all season though and while the managed the win and cover on the road last time out, I think they'll have a much more difficult time trying to do that a second time. The Bills have improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and this Ravens' offense is suddenly struggling to put points on the board. 

The pick: These teams are similar in many respects, but the way that these two starting QB's have played this season, I'm giving the big nod to Josh Allen over LaMar Jackson. Allen has been getting the job done in evvery respect this year and I expect him to step up here at home and deliver. Instead of laying the points though, I'm going to recommend playing the home side on the very reasonable money-line price. 

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Bills MONEY-LINE.

The set-up: Green Bay will look to get out and put the Rams' talented defense on its heels from the get-go. Green Bay will dial up the pressure and try to get an early lead and LA is going to then be forced to play from behind. The Rams are intimately familiar with the Seahawks, but not quite at all with Green Bay. In fact, these teams haven't even played against each other since 2018. Green Bay was 7-1 at home SU and 5-3 ATS. The Packers guaranteed home field advantage with a resounding 35-16 win at Chicago, facing a stiff Bears defense, very similar to this Rams' unit. From a situational standpoint, in my opinion this one definitely sets up as more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." 

The pick: I'll point out as well that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" (has now played to four straight "unders" after beating the Hawks last weekend), while Green Bay has seen the total eclipse the number in 14 of its last 21 home games after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing, while also playing with two weeks off. This number is low in my opinion.

This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Rams/Packers.

The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, as shortly after taking Cleveland, it was announced that few players, including its head coach, had COVID. The bulk of Cleveland's talent will be on the field of play and clearly the Browns will be out for an outright upset here. These two teams know each other intimately. The Steelers stumbled down the stretch, but managed to win in Week 17. Pittsburgh has a couple COVID issues as well. 

The pick: The Browns have an offense which can keep pace with any team in the league. Cleveland's defense is also underrated in my opinion. I'm expect this one to come down to whichever of these division rivals has its hands on the ball last, so in that scenario, I'm definitely grabbing up the points!

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Chicago got crushed 35-16 in its regular season finale by Green Bay. The Bears only averaged 23.3 PPG, while conceding just 23.1. Chicago did better than most expected, but I think it'll struggle to score in this difficult road venue and against this vastly improved Saints' defense. 

The pick: New Orleans averaged 30 PPG, while allowing just 21.1. This is one of the better defenses that the Saints have gone up against this year and when they won in Chicago earlier in the season, it was by a score of 26-23 in OT. I look for New Orleans to masterfully control this contest and the clock and I expect this one to fall "under" once it's all said and done.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bears/Saints.

The set-up: Baltimore is out to get revenege here against a team that it's had difficulties with over the last few years. The Titans upset the 14-1 Ravens in last year's playoffs 28-12. I'm having a hard time getting a firm read on a side in this one, but all signs point to this one being more of a "chess match," in my opinion, rather than a "shootout." And that's because I expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from each side while on offense today. 

The pick: These team's also faced off back on November 22nd and Tennessee managed a 30-24 victory, but that came in overtime. These are admittedly a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but I'll also point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 road games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which it allowed 30 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Ravens/Titans.

The set-up: Tampa Bay has a great defense and it's offense is dynamic and experienced as well. The issue for Bruce Arians at times is making all those pieces work together at the same time. Washington finished the regular season 7-9, but it closed the regular season by going 4-1. The success of Tampa Bay though will 100% come down to how well Tom Brady does against Washington's stiff defensive front. 

The pick: Tampa has many injured as well, as note that questionable for Saturday are Carlton Davies, LeSean McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul. Mike Evans is listed as probable. Cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White, and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ledbetter are all out. I can't see Tampa holding onto a big lead, or running up the score if it has a lead late. I'm banking on the home side doing enough to earn a comfortable cover in this one. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Washington Football Team.

The set-up: These teams split their regular season games, with LA winning 23-16, and the Hawks reciprocating at home in a 20-9 win in the regular season finale. Interestingly, in both games the Rams won the time of possession. The Rams have the playoff defense to keep this one close late, conceding only 18.5 PPG. Jared Goff has the ability to make plays and this Rams' run game can eat up clock as well. 

The pick: Seattle has one advantage here, Russell Wilson. Granted, that's a big advantage, but I think LA's pass rush is formidable enough to keep him in check like when these team's met the firs time (really, Wilson was pretty much contained in Week 17 as well.) I think this one comes down to the wire, so I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Rams.

The set-up: The Colts have the offense and the defense to hang with Buffalo. The Bills weakness is their ground game. Their defense wasn't great all year, but it did well down the stretch of the regular season. The Colts finished second in the NFL in stopping the run, so the task for the visiting side will be to get to Josh Allen, who is admittedly having a great year. 

The pick: The Bills weakness defensively was stopping the run, so expect to see a heavy-dose of Colts' RB Jonathan Taylor, who is as versatile running the ball, as he is catching it. I think experience does matter at this point, so Rivers has a small advantage in that department. I think this one comes right down to the wire and therefore, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: New Orleans is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, one game behind Green Bay, who holds the tie-breaker after beating the Saints earlier in the year. New Orleans is tied with Seattle at 11-4 and it holds the tiebreaker over the Hawks. Carolina won't be in the playoffs, as it's 5-10. The Panthers though relished the role of playing spoiler last week, snapping a three-game slide with a competitive 20-13 win over Washington. 

The pick: Teddy Bridgewater has one last chance to impress today for the Panthers and he'll try to deal a blow to the Saints playoff positioning and take advantage of a team which will be without its entire starting RB group. I think New Orleans gets caught flat-footed here and I like the home side to deliver. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Carolina Panthers.

The set-up: The Patriots are eliminated. Cam Newton is going to be the only motivated player on the field for New England today. The Patriots have nothing to play for over the last two games, and they can't even really play spoiler here, as Buffalo has already clinched. Instead, I give the Bills the huge edge in being the more "motivated" team in this matchup. Buffalo won the first matchup and after being the "red headed step-child" of the division for so long, and after suffering so many beatdowns at the hands of the Pats over the years, I look for this visiting organization to lay down a can of whoop ass that none of us have witnessed in quite a while. Buffalo is simply the better team in every respect and I don't see it having any sort of letdown in enemy territory today. 

The pick: It's interesting to note as well that New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games played in the month of December, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. With a chance to humiliate the Patriots on their home field, I look for the Bills to do just that!

This is a 10* AFC EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks."

The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys.

The set-up: Baltimore has a "cream puff" final regular season game at Cincinnati and I think it gets caught looking ahead to that contest and takes the foot off the gas in the second half of this game. The Giants on the other hand come in absolutely desperate, needing a win or they'll be eliminated from contention. Last week they lost by 14 points to the Browns. QB Daniel Jones is expected to return. 

The pick: Baltimore crushed Jacksonville 40-14 last weekend. The Ravens are 9-4 and are back on track, but consistency has plagued LaMar Jackson and company all season long. If the Ravens have a lead in the second half, there's no need for them to run up this score, instead they'll be trying to avoid mistakes and injuries and kill the clock. New York will be aiming for the end zone on every drive and because of that, I expect this game to be much closer than what this spread would suggest.

This is a 9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Will Kansas City win this game? Of course. Can Atlanta make it interesting? I don't think it'll even bother here. The big question though is, will the Chiefs run up this score in the second half if they come out of the break with a lead? With a home game against already eliminated LA Chargers to end the season, there's no reason at all for the Chiefs to run up this score. KC's entire game plan will be to go up early, and then to control the clock, avoid injuries and get ready to finish off this strange season. Julio Jones is done for the year for ATL, and I just can't see at all where any sort of motivation will be coming from this "dome" team today. Situationally, this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that the "under" has hit in four of ATL's last five on the road as well. KC's defense is underrated and I think it'll grab the main headline in tomorrow's KC summaries. This number is a tad high.

This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Falcons/Chiefs.

The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. 

The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. 

The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints.

The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. 

The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over."

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals.