Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-25 | Bills +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 6:30pm Et, my AFC Game Of the Month is on Buffalo. The Chiefs keep finding ways to win but if you've been following along, they've often been fortunate. They were badly out gained by Houston last week. The Chiefs managed only 212 total yards and just 14 first downs. Houston had a big edge in time of possession and the Texans finished with 336 yards. The Bills are a much stronger team than the Texans. They very nearly defeated the Chiefs in last year's playoffs and they did beat them 30-21 in the regular season. The Bills averaged 30.9 points in the regular season, 2nd only to Detroit. The Bills have beaten the Chiefs 4 of the past 6 meetings and they had a great chance to win each of the two losses. One was in OT and the other was a 3-pt loss. The Chiefs will certainly have home field advantage but the passionate Bills fans will make sure that the visitors also have some fans. "It's huge," McDermott said of having Bills fans in enemy territory. "We've gone on the road, we've played at home -- our fans travel everywhere and anywhere that we play. So, we've got the best fans in the NFL. I think that the connection with our fan base, as I've said multiple times over, is unique in the NFL." Those Buffalo fans who made the trip will be rewarded when their team punches its ticket to the Super Bowl. Play on Buffalo. |
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01-26-25 | Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 3:00pm ET, my NFL Playoff Total Of The Year is on the Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles under. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope and are a big part of the reason for a high total. Both are very capable but neither of them is going to have as big a game as a lot of people will expect. The Eagles intercepted Daniels three times in two games in the regular season. Hurts is playing at less than 100%. The regular season game at Washington went over but the game at Philadelphia did not. Followers will remember that we nailed the under in that game. Barkley is going to be running the ball very frequently as our Robinson and Daniels for Washington. That will help our cause because the clock will keep ticking with each running play. The game at Washington was an exception for the Eagles. It marked the only time in their last 15 games that they allowed more than 23 points. They allow an average of only 17.6 points, 17.2 at home. During the regular season, the Eagles allowed just 278 yards per game. That was best in the NFL and they were the only team to allow less than 300 per game. Play on the under. |
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01-19-25 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 51 | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
At 6:30pm ET, my AFC Total Of the Year is on Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Over. Neither of these teams can be stopped very easily. The Ravens have scored 28 or more points in 5 straight games. The Bills have scored 30 or more in 10 of their last 12 games. In the playoffs, they are #1 and #2 for yards per game. The Bills racked up 471 yards against Denver and the Ravens had 464 against the Steelers. They scored 31 and 28 points. If the Broncos and Steelers had forced them too, both the Bills and Ravens could have even scored more. During the regular season, they ranked #1 and #2 for points in the AFC, #2 and #3 in the entire NFL. The Bills averaged 30.9 points and the Ravens averaged 30.5. At home, the Bills average 33.9 points. Both teams get at least 28 and this game sails over the total! Play on the Over.
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01-19-25 | Rams v. Eagles -5.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:00pm Et, my NFL Divisional Round Game Of the Year is on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams have had to go through a lot this season. They had to overcome a slow start and then they had to deal with important injuries all season. Their Wildcard game got moved to Arizona because of the fires in Los Angeles. With more important things on their minds, it would have been easy for the Rams to lose that game. They didn't let anything stop them yet but I will finally all catch up to them on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have their sights set on the Super Bowl. The Eagles outclassed the Rams 37-20 in November, at Los Angeles. A massive 314-92 edge on the ground was key. Now they play at home where the Eagles are 9-1. The Eagles are rested and they haven't played a road game in weeks. This will be a repeat of Week 12. Lay the points. |
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01-18-25 | Commanders v. Lions -8.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
At 8:00pm ET, my selection is on Detroit. The Commanders took massive steps this season. They scored way more points than last season and they allowed far fewer points. They found their QB of the future and dramatically improved their record. They returned to the playoffs and even won a game. Their story stops right there as the Commanders are now running into the top seed in the NFC. The Lions have paid their dues. They are rested and playing at home. They aren't going to let these upstarts show up in their house and spoil the party. This will be the first time that the Commanders will be playing 3 straight road games. It doesn't help matters that this is a Saturday game and that they played last Sunday. The Lions will show no mercy and will pull away for a decisive victory. Lay the points. |
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01-18-25 | Commanders v. Lions UNDER 55.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm ET, my NFC Total Of the Week is on Washington and Detroit under. As you can see, this is a very high total. Driving the number so high, we've got 2 high-scoring teams each of them led by a coach who doesn't mind rolling the dice. Most probably haven't noticed but we've also got 2 defenses which are suddenly both playing very well. The Commanders have allowed 20 or fewer points in 3 straight road games. The Lions kept the Vikings to 9 points and made a potent Minnesota offense look bad. They've held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 20 or fewer points and 3 of those teams didn't even get to 10. On the season, despite dealing with injuries, the Lions led the NFL in third-down defense. This one won't be the shootout that the total suggests. Play on the under. |
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01-13-25 | Vikings v. Rams UNDER 48 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my Wildcard Rd Total Of The Year is on Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams Under. Everyone had been scoring big points against the Detroit defense but the Vikings managed only 9 points against the Lions. Sam Darnold was not good. He finished 18 of 41 with 0 touchdowns. Minnesota managed only 14 first downs. Now Darnold and the Vikings go up against a Rams defense which has played great for weeks. Throw out the Seattle game, as the Rams treated it like it didn't matter. There was still seeding implications but they gave Stafford and others the day off.) The Rams held each of their previous 3 opponents to less than 10 points. Before the Seattle game, only 1 of the Rams last 5 opponents had scored more than 14 points against them and that was Buffalo. On offense, prior to the Seattle game, the Rams had scored less than 20 points in three straight. The Rams have gone under in each of their last 2 WildCard games. They allowed just 11 points their last home playoff wildcard game. This total is high and this will make 3 straight. Play on the under. ***I was already going to play the under if the game was at LA and I still really like the play after the change of venue to Glendale. I will add that the Rams managed only 10 points and 245 yards when they played here this season. |
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01-12-25 | Commanders v. Bucs -155 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -155 | 107 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my Wildcard Game Of The Year is on Tampa. Jayden Daniels has enjoyed an excellent rookie season. Rookie quarterbacks rarely fare well in road playoff games though. The Commanders are 0-3 versus the spread their last 3 road games. The Bucs have a top level QB of their own, one who has been in big games before. Baker Mayfield led the Bucs to a 32-9 win over the Eagles in the Wildcard round last year. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said this of Mayfield: “He’s one of those quarterbacks that has that mentality in his head that he’ll do whatever it takes to win." Mayfield was much better than Daniels when the Bucs beat the Commanders 37-20 early in the season. Mayfield threw for four touchdowns. Daniels threw for zero. Mayfield will outduel Daniels again and the Bucs will advance to the next round with another big win. Lay the points (or the reasonable moneyline price as well!). |
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01-11-25 | Chargers v. Texans OVER 41.5 | Top | 12-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
At 430pm ET, my AFC Total Of The Week is on the Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Over. This is a low total. As a matter of fact, its the lowest of the 6 Wildcard games. A little too low, according to my calculations! The Charger offense has caught fire. LA scored 34, 40 and 34 its past 3 games. The Texans are going to need to score if they want to keep up! The past 3 meetings between the Chargers and Texans finished with 58, 70 and 47 points. This will be another high-scoring game, higher than the low total suggests. Play on the over. |
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01-05-25 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 56.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:20pm ET, my NFC Total Of The Month is on Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Under. We're going to see some points on Sunday night but this is an extremely high total. You're going to find out that its too high. This season's first total was 49. Last year's games had totals of 47.5 and 48. The earlier game finished with 60 points, a 31-29 final. But if you look at the stats, they don't suggest the type of offensive shootout you might imagine. The Lions had 19 first downs. The Vikings had 16. Both teams had balanced run/pass stats but neither reached 400 total yards. The Lions only entered the red zone once and the Vikings never even did so. The previous 6 meetings between these teams all finished with 57 or fewer points. Injuries or not, these defenses aren't as bad as the public thinks. This game stays under the enormous total. Play on the under. |
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01-04-25 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
My January AFC North Total of the Month is on Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Under. The Ravens are heavy favorites. They have everything to play for and the Browns have nothing. With Bailey Zappe starting at QB, the Browns are going to have real trouble scoring. Actually, that was going to be the case no matter who started. Zappe hasn't played a down this season and is being thrown to the Wolves. The Ravens will score their points but they aren't going to go over this total by themselves. Their last victory over the Browns came by a 28-3 score and a similar final is expected here. Play on the under. |
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12-29-24 | Dolphins v. Browns +3.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
At 4:05pm ET, my selection is on the Cleveland Browns. Both teams are missing a number of players. Neither will be going to the playoffs. So, this game means nothing, in terms of the standings. The Dolphins say they want to play hard and win. But they just got eliminated and that's going to be difficult. The Browns have been eliminated for some time now. So, they're at least used to it. Playing at Cleveland, this is their chance at a victory for the home fans. After this, they have a road game at Baltimore. The Dolphins are only 2-5 on the road and have no business laying points, given their situation. Play on Cleveland. |
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12-29-24 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South Total Of the Month is on Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under. The Panthers are one of only 2 teams in the NFL to average less than 300 yards of offense per game. They manage just 295.8 yards per game. That's right down there with the Giants. Prior to last week's high-scoring game versus Arizona, Carolina had seen 7 of its previous 8 games finish with fewer than 50 points. Tampa has seen 5 of its last 6 games finish with 50 or less. This season's earlier meeting snuck over the total only thanks to Overtime, a tough loss for those who bet the under. That score was still 16-10 nearly halfway through the 4th quarter. This one won't go to OT and will stay below the total. Play on the under. |
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12-28-24 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
AT 8:15pm ET, my NFC West Total Of the Year is on Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Under. The Cardinals may be eliminated from playoff contention but this is still a divisional battle against a team which is fighting for the division title. The Rams are playing stellar defense. Their last 2 games had scores of 12-6 and 19-9. The earlier meeting at Arizona finished with 51. Last year's game at Arizona also finished with 51. But last year's game at LA only produced 35 points and the last 3 meetings at LA have all finished with 45 or less. Play on the under. |
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12-28-24 | Chargers v. Patriots +6 | 40-7 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
At 1:00pm ET, my selection is on the New England Patriots. The Chargers need the game and the Patriots do not. The Chargers have a star quarterback and a big name coach. The Patriots have a rookie QB and a first year head coach. With the Patriots off 5 straight losses, not many are willing to back the underdog. The Patriots haven't quit though. If you haven't been paying attention, you may not have noticed. They nearly upset Buffalo last game, one of the best teams in the league. They are still fighting and now they get an early game against a warm weather west coast based team. This is their chance to get a home win and to do something memorable which will have an effect on the playoff race. The Patriots are 2-6 their last 8 but 4 of the losses were by 6 or less. Grab the points. |
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12-26-24 | Seahawks v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my TNF Game Of the Year is on Chicago. We've got Seattle playing a must win game against a Chicago team which has lost 9 in a row. Unless they're from Chicago, not too many recreational bettors are likely to want anything to do with the Bears. This is not an easy spot for Seattle though and the Bears are going to view this is a big game. This is their chance to be relevant. Seattle knows that even if it wins this game, it might not matter. The Seahawks also know that playing on the road, on a short week through Christmas, will not be easy. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith said this: "We got a tough Chicago team on the road. I know their record isn't the greatest, but if you watch film on those guys, they got a tough team with a lot of talent. We got to be ready coming off a short week, traveling on Christmas. Guys got to get their minds right." The Bears might be 0-7 on the road but they are still 4-4 at home. I will take the points, as this will likely be a close game. But I was tempted to go money-line, as I've got the Bears scoring the upset! Play on Chicago. |
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12-25-24 | Ravens v. Texans UNDER 47 | Top | 31-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:30pm ET, my AFC Total Of the Month is on Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans Under. Like the Chiefs and Steelers in the early game, these teams are both playing on a very short week. Both are playing their 3rd game since 12/15. The Ravens are battling the Steelers for the AFC North crown. The Texans have wrapped up the AFC South. They don't have much to play for and they're down another top receiver after losing Tank Dell last week. He had 6 receptions for 98 yards and a TD before the injury. His loss is huge for Houston. It will lead to some conservative play-calling on Wednesday. The Texans don't want to get embarrassed at home though and we're going to see their defense rise to the challenge of taking on a top team. Two meetings since the start of last season (one regular season, one playoffs) both finished with 44 or fewer points. This one finishes below the high number. Play on the Under. |
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12-25-24 | Chiefs v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 29-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
At 1:00 pm Et, my AFC Game Of the week is on Pittsburgh. The Chiefs have been finding ways to win all year. Their good fortune will run out on Christmas Day, at Pittsburgh. Both teams have had to deal with the same schedule. They're each playing their 5th game in December. This will be a very short week for both. With that difficult schedule and short week, playing at home should make things a little easier. The Steelers have been much better at home all season. They've beaten Baltimore here. They're 5-1 here compared to 5-4 on the road. The Chiefs are tough to beat anywhere but their only loss came on the road. The only other time that Tomlin's team was off consecutive losses, the Steelers responded with a 32-13 win. Grab the points. |
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12-22-24 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43 | Top | 30-38 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 25 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my AFC South Total Of the Year is on Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Under. The Colts offense is not scoring many points. Indianapolis managed only 13 points last week, zero in the 2nd half. The Colts have now scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Titans know exactly how they feel. They scored 27 last week but that was against a Cincinnati team with a really bad defense. They've still scored 20 or less in 8 of their past 10, including just 6 in the game before the Bengals. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of the NFL for points scored. The defenses have been better than the offenses. The Colts gave up 31 points to Denver. That was a deceiving score though as they only gave up 13 first downs and 193 total yards. The Colts held high-scoring Detroit to 24 points in their last home game. Prior to their game against the high-scoring Bengals, the Titans had allowed only 10 points. They allow the 2nd fewest yards per game of any team in the NFL. |
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12-22-24 | Browns +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -108 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:00pm Et, my Revenge Game Of the Year is on the Cleveland Browns. If asked, both Browns' fans and Bengals' fans would probably say that Pittsburgh is their biggest rival. (The Steelers would say that their biggest rival is the Ravens.) That doesn't mean that these 2 Ohio-based NFC North rivals don't share a special type of hatred for each other. The Browns season might be over but misery loves company. They can do serious damage to the Bengals' chances by beating them on Sunday. At the same time, they will exact revenge from an earlier loss at Cleveland. The Browns had a 336-223 edge in yards in that 21-14 October loss. They dominated time of possession and limited the Bengals to 12 first downs. The reality is that the Bengals aren't likely going to make the playoffs, even if they win this game. They need to win all 3 of their games. They need to also have either the Broncos are the Chargers lose out. Additionally, they would still need both Miami and Indianapolis to lose at least one game. The Browns don't care about all that. They know that if they win on Sunday that Cincinnati will not be going to the playoffs. That'll be the sweetest type of revenge. Grab the points. |
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12-21-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
At 4:30pm ET, my AFC North Total Of the Month is on Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under. Quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are both playing very well overall this season. They're both sure to have their moments. Wilson hasn't been great the past 2 games though and Jackson's struggled against the Steelers are well documented. Games between the Steelers and Ravens are primarily about tough, hard-hitting smash mouth football. They're typically close and they're almost always low-scoring. Look at the scores from the last 8 games: 18-16, 17-10, 17-10, 16-13, 16-14, 16-13, 20-19 and 19-14. This season's first meeting stayed well below the total and this afternoon's game is going to do the same. Play on the under. |
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12-21-24 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 42 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
At 1:00pm Et, my selection is on Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Over. This game isn't necessarily critical for either team. With some pressure off and a pair of quarterbacks who love to compete, we'll see a high-scoring game this afternoon. Mahomes was iffy at the beginning of the week but is reportedly good to go. He was 36 of 41 for 336 yards when he last faced Houston, a 30-24 win in 2022. As a matter of fact, Mahomes has a passer rating of 122.2 with 1,141 yards, 13 touchdowns and 1 interception in 4 career games (3 regular-season and 1 playoff) against Houston. All 4 finished with at least 54 points. The Texans have scored 20 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. Go with the over. |
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12-19-24 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET, my TNF total of the month is on the Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Under. The Broncos allowed only 13 points last week. They have conceded less than 20 in 4 of their last 5 games. The Chargers had a bad defensive showing last game. They've been stingy all season long before that though and will deliver a much better effort tonight. The Broncos scored 31 points last game but that wasn't because of an amazing offensive effort. As a matter of fact, they managed only 13 first downs and had less than 200 yards of offense. The last 3 games between these AFC West rivals finished with 39, 25 and 31 points. The total for this season's first game was only 37. Tonight's higher total is giving us plenty value. Go with the under. |
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12-16-24 | Bears v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 149 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my Monday Night Total Of the Year is on Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Under. This is a high total for a game between the Bears and the Vikings. The o/u line was 39.5 for this season's first meeting. Both teams are 8-5 to the under on the season. The Bears scored 13 points last week. Other than the first game against Minnesota where they surprisingly scored 27, the Bears have scored 20 or less in each of their last 6 other games. They average 288.5 yards per game on offense, worst in the entire NFL. Minnesota allows 18.5 ppg and Chicago allows 21.4 ppg. Those are the 6th and 10th best marks in the NFL, entering Week 15. Chicago's last game here had a total of 43 and the final score was 12-10. The Bears held the Vikings to 242 total yards. Play on the under. |
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12-15-24 | Packers v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 126 h 43 m | Show |
AT 8:20pm ET, my NFC Total Of The Year is on Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks Under. This is a very high total for this week's Sunday Night game. It allows us a lot of room to go under. The Seahawks have really elevated their defense in recent weeks. They've held 4 straight opponents to 21 or fewer points and 3 of those teams had 18 or less. Their average number of points allowed over those 4 games was only 15.5. The Packers have played some high-scoring teams lately, Detroit and Miami. So their recent games have been higher-scoring. They've still allowed less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4. The last meeting between these teams produced only 17 total points. Some might be surprised that this will be another lower-scoring game. Go with the under. |
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12-15-24 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET my AFC Total Of The Week is on Indianapolis/Denver under the total. The Broncos are off a high-scoring game against the Browns but they had allowed an average of less than 14 points over their previous 3 games, none of those opponents reaching the 20 mark. The colts are 2-0 to the under the past 2x time that they were underdogs of at least 5 points. They scored only 6 and 13 points in those games. The last time these teams faced each other, no touchdowns were scored. Seven total field goals were kicked in the Colts' 12-9 overtime victory. The previous meeting was a 15-13 Colts victory and the one before that was a 25-13 win by the Broncos. All 3 of those games stayed under and Sunday afternoon's game will as well. Play on the under. |
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12-15-24 | Bengals v. Titans +5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET, my AFC Game Of The Year is on the Tennessee Titans. On Monday night, the whole world was reminded of how dangerous the Burrow/Chase duo is. They were the main story-line and took attention away from the fact that the Bengals defense remains atrocious. They couldn't stop the Cowboys running game. Nor could stop the Cowboys passing game. The 27.7 points allowed per game is the 4th worst in the NFL, 2nd worst in the AFC. (The Raiders allow 27.8 ppg.) The Bengals allow 365.5 yards per game, 7th worst in the NFL. The Cowboys, playing with Prescott, Tennessee allows just 291.8 yards per game, 2nd best in the NFL and best in the AFC. The Bengals are off the big Monday night win and before that they had a big division game against the Steelers. Next up is another division game against instate rival Cleveland. A road game against the Titans, on a short week, is going to spell trouble. Even the Titans will be able to move the ball against this Bengal defense. They'll want this game more and they'll play harder. Give me the points! |
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12-12-24 | Rams v. 49ers -140 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -140 | 54 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:15pm, my December NFC West Game Of the Month is on San Francisco. With both these teams off important victories last week, all four teams are still alive in the NFC West. The Seahawks are in the driver's seat but are still a long ways from winning. The 49ers chances are the most remote but they're still alive. Playing at home and having played one of their most complete games of the season last week, the 49ers will keep their hopes alive with another victory on Thursday Night Football. San Francisco is dealing with some significant injuries but the same is true of the Rams. The 49ers main priority is keeping their season alive, of course. But they also haven't forgotten what the Rams did to them in September. LA rallied from a double-digit deficit to stun the 49ers 27-24 on a late field goal. Things would look much different in the West if SF had won that game. Something clicked for the 49ers las week and they still have a winning record at home. They exact some revenge and stay alive with a win and cover on Thursday night! |
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12-09-24 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 49.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET, my selection is on Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Under. This is a very high o/u line, thanks in no small part to the Bengals entering the game on a 5-0 over run. The large number gives us a lot of "wiggle room." The Cowboys last 4 o/u lines were all 45 or less. Even the Bengals have only had one game all year with a total greater than 48.5. That was against Baltimore, the team which averages more yards of offense than any other team in the league. Baltimore averages an extra 100 yards of offense per game than Dallas. So, the Ravens could keep up with the Bengals but the Cowboys won't likely be able to. If Dallas isn't scoring as much, the Bengals won't be forced to keep piling up the points either. The Cowboys last 3 home games have all finished with 47 or less. Make it 4 in a row after tonight. |
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12-08-24 | Raiders v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 37 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFL Game Of The Year is on Tampa Bay. Excellent setup for the Buccaneers. The Bucs have gone through their low point, 4 straight losses, and come out on the other side. They're off consecutive victories and are now in a dogfight with the Falcons for the NFC South division lead. You'd have to forgive the Raiders if they don't really care about Tampa. The Raiders just put everything they had into beating the rival Chiefs, the defending world champions. They deserved to win but didn't. The kicker Daniel Carson deserves some of the blame but this is a 2-10 team which finds ways to lose. After coming so close to defeating the champs, the Raiders won't have much left in the tank on Sunday. When the Bucs win, they've shown that they can win big. They gashed the Giants 30-7. They smashed the Saints 51-27. They obliterated the Eagles 33-16 and they waxed Washington 37-20. Each of their home wins have come by more than 14. Before the close defeat at KC, the Raiders last 3 losses all came by double-digits. Lay the points. |
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12-05-24 | Packers v. Lions -3 | Top | 31-34 | Push | 0 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my NFC North Game Of The Year is on Detroit. The NFC North has 3 of the best teams in the NFC. The Lions, Vikings and Packers all have 9 or more wins. No single team in the NFC South has more than 6. Only Seattle, which has 7, has more than 6. Of the 3 NFC North teams with 9 or more, the Lions stand alone at the top with 11. They beat the Packers at Lambeau and now they will seize control of the division by completing the series sweep. I've been around a lot of years and this may be the best Lions team I can remember. (This is their best record through 12 games in team history.) They've won 10 straight. Other than a game at Philadelphia, the Packers have faced some weak teams on the road. Their 4 other road games came against teams who are a combined 15-33, none of them above .500. They won't benefit from the elements at Lambeau and will be exposed by a superior Lions team. Lay the points. |
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12-02-24 | Browns v. Broncos UNDER 42 | 32-41 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
At 8:15pm Et, my selection is on the Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos Under. The Broncos rank 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8) per game. They rank 3rd in the NFL in yards (296) allowed. Sean Payton knows Winston well and he will have Denver ready to deliver a dominant defensive performance. Many teams tend to have big defensive games against the Browns. They are averaging only 16.9 points, worst in the AFC and 2nd lowest in the NFL. In terms of yards per game, the Browns rank 3rd from the bottom. Cleveland still has talent on defense and the Browns have shown that they can still get up for these big games. This is a Monday night game against a long-time enemy. The Browns held Pittsburgh to 19 points last game, the same Steelers which scored 44 yesterday. The last 4 meetings have all finished with 43 or fewer points and the last 2 both had 41 or less. Play on the under. |
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12-01-24 | 49ers v. Bills UNDER 45 | Top | 10-35 | Push | 0 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:20pm ET, my Sunday Night Total Of the Month is on San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills Under. If you're not experiencing it first-hand, you've probably heard about the snow and cold being felt in much of the country, including Buffalo. As a matter of fact, Bills have asked their fans to help shovel the stadium, for $20/hour. A little bit of cold doesn't affect the game too much. But extreme weather like this can and will. Purdy is questionable for the 49ers. He'd have to be better than Allen but still isn't going to solve SF's offensive issues single-handedly. Either way, the offense will struggle in the cold on Sunday. They're going to need the defense to elevate its level of play. They'll do their best to run McCaffery as much as possible to keep Buffalo on the sidelines. Play on the under. |
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12-01-24 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 47 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
AT 4:05pm Et, my NFC South Total Of the Month is on Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Under. This is quite a large total for a Carolina game. The Panthers' last 4 o/u lines were 43, 40, 43.5 and 40. The Panthers average only 285.5 yards of offense per game. Only New England at 280.2 ypg is worse. Prior to the 27 points they scored against the Chiefs, the Panthers had scored 24 or less in 7 straight games. Tampa's last 2 games have had final scores of 37 and 43. The last game between these teams finished at 9-0, 3 field goals for the entire game. Tampa had 228 yards of offense and 14 first downs. Carolina had only 11 first downs and just 199 yards of offense. Three of the past 4 meetings have finished with less than 40. Play on the under. |
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12-01-24 | Cardinals v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 51 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC Game Of The Year is on Minnesota. This line could and should be higher. Minnesota is better on both sides of the ball and is playing at home. The Vikings got up against the Bears last week and let the lead slip away. They found a way to win their 4th straight and are now 9-2 on the season. Arizona went the other way, losing 16-6 to Seattle. Those teams are now tied atop the NFC West, each with 6-5 records. QB Murray got hurt in the loss at Seattle. He's expected back but might not be quite right and he may be susceptible to getting hurt again. He's obviously very important for Arizona but they're in trouble even with him. The Vikings have outscored opposing teams by 77 points this season. Arizona has outscored teams by just 8 points. Even assuming Murray and the Arizona offense is fine, the Cardinal secondary is going to struggle against a dangerous Viking attack. The Cardinals are 4-2 at home but 2-3 on the road. All 3 road losses came by 6 or more points. Off the game on the West Coast at Seattle in the Pacific Northwest, they now play an early game, their 2nd straight on the road. When they played 2 straight road games earlier, they lost the 2nd won 34-13. The Vikings can win anywhere. Their only home loss came by 2 points to the 10-1 Lions. All 4 home wins came by at least 6 points. The Vikings need to keep winning and they will. Lay the points. |
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11-29-24 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
My AFC West Total Of The Year is on Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Under. Last season, these teams played their first game at Las Vegas. That game finished with 48 points. This season, they also played their first game at Las Vegas. That game finished with 47 points. Last year, when the venue changed to chilly Arrowhead Stadium, the score was a much lower 20-14. With today's game also played at Arrowhead, another lower-scoring Game 2 is expected. The Chiefs last game here was a 16-14 final. The Raiders, who will have Aiden O'Connell at QB instead of Minshew (lost for season with injury) have scored 20 points or less in 7 of their last 8 games. After allowing other teams to hang around, the Chiefs' focus will be on delivering a dominant defensive effort. Lots of running plays with the clock ticking and the game moving by very quickly. Play on the under. |
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11-28-24 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Packers | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
At 8:20pm ET, my Ground and Pound selection is on Miami. Both teams need the win. I would argue that Miami needs it more. They lose and their season is over. The Packers would still be in reasonable shape, off a loss. We know about Miami's history in the cold. The key word there is history. This is a new team and a new day. The Dolphins are on a roll right now and are ready to show that they aren't the Dolphins of old. The Packers didn't fare very well with the elements in their loss to Detroit. They hammered SF last week but the 49ers were without their QB and played their worst game. Before that, GB was off 4 straight games where it failed to win by more than 3 points. Before their 3-game winning streak, the Dolphins last 2 losses both came by 3 or less. I think Miami wins outright in the cold and shocks the world but I'm also expect a close game and having a few extra points to work with is an added bonus. Play on Miami. |
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11-28-24 | Bears v. Lions OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -109 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
At 12:30pm ET, my NFC North Total Of The Year is on Detroit/Chicago Over. The Lions can score points against any defense. They've scored 24 or more points in 8 straight games. They scored more than 30 in 6 of those, more than 40 in 4 of them and more than 50 in two. They are potent enough that they have the potential to go over this number by themselves. That's unlikely but the Bears will chip in plenty to help their cause. Chicago just scored 27 against a good Minnesota defense last week. The Bears had 398 yards of offense, 320 through the air. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has improved dramatically since the Bears fired Shane Waldron and promoted Brown to offensive coordinator in. In two games since the switch, Williams' completion percentage has increased from 61% to 71%, his other stats improving along with the improved completion percentage. Williams' yards per attempt has climbed from 6.1 to 7.3, his pressure percentage has been nearly cut in half (34% to 18%) and he's getting rid of the ball quicker as his average pass time has dropped from 2.9 seconds to 2.42 seconds. These teams faced each other last Thanksgiving Day and the Lions won 31-26. The Bears were up 26-14 in the fourth quarter before Detroit scored the game's final 17 points. Neither team is going to quit in this one either and the final score will again finish above the 50 mark. Play on the over. |
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11-25-24 | Ravens -2 v. Chargers | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
At 8:15pm ET, my Ground and Pound selection is on Baltimore. John Harbaugh has gotten the better of Jim in each of the previous 2 Harbaugh Bowls, one in the playoffs and one in the regular season. This time, Jim has home field advantage for the first time. It's not going to be enough! The Chargers have been playing well but John's Ravens are still the better team. Of course, Jim wants to beat his brother and of course the Chargers want and need the win. John wants to win, too though, as do the Ravens. There will be no motivation advantage either way! The Ravens average 430 yards per game and the Chargers average 326. Baltimore scores more than 30 ppg and LA averages only 22. Lay the short number with John Harbaugh and the Ravens! |
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11-24-24 | Eagles v. Rams +3 | Top | 37-20 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Game Of The Month is on the LA Rams. Philadelphia is in a difficult scheduling spot. The Eagles are off back-to-back divisional victories and they've got a showdown at Baltimore ahead of them. With a small cushion atop the NFC East and only Washington to worry about, they may overlook the Rams. The Rams don't have that luxury as they in a 4-team dogfight in the NFC West. The Eagles are getting a lot of respect for their 6-game winning streak but the Rams have won 4 of their last 5 themselves. Matthew Stafford is 4-2 in his career versus the Eagles and he has 12 touchdown passes against only one interception. Rams coach Sean McVay said of the Eagles: "We have a lot of respect for this group. But you know, these are the moments that you love as a competitor. This is what is the best part of the NFL." He will have the Rams ready to go and they will score the upset on Sunday Night Football! |
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11-24-24 | Titans +9 v. Texans | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my AFC South Game Of The Year is on Tennessee. The Texans are a solid football team but there are still opportunities to go against them. I won with the Jets when they defeated the Texans on Halloween and this is another strong spot to play against. Houston plays on a short week after defeating instate rival Dallas on Monday Night football. These teams tend to play close games. The Texans did handle the Titans easily at the end of last season but the previous 7 meetings were all decided by single digits. In 11 games this season, Monday's win over the Cowboys marked only the 2nd time that Houston has beaten a team by more than 6 points. Playing in the AFC South, where every other team is below .500, the Texans don't have any urgency to win. They will face a Titans team which ranks 1st in the AFC (2nd in NFL) in terms of yards allowed per game and which is first in pass defense. This is just Tennessee's 2nd divisional game. The first was decided by a field goal and this one will also be close. Take the points. |
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11-21-24 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 36 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my AFC North Total Of The Week is on the Pittsburgh Steelers vs the Cleveland Browns Under. This total is low and that will scare some off. Thats fine by me as I made this number 31. The Steelers only allow 16.2 points per game, the 2nd best mark in the NFL. That's exactly what Cleveland averages on offense, 16.2 points per game. That's the 2nd fewest in the NFL. Keep in mind that that Browns averaged 16.2 points against defenses that weren't nearly as good as this one. Likewise, the Steelers allowed 16.2 points, on average, against offenses that are much better than Cleveland. So the Browns aren't likely to even reach their average. Cleveland can still play defense though and is going to be determined to shut down the Steelers. The Browns have scored 14 and 10 points their last 2 games and they have scored 16 or less in 7 of their last 8. Last year's game here had a total of 34.5 and finished with a score of 13-10. Play on the under. |
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11-18-24 | Texans v. Cowboys UNDER 41 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
At 8:15pm ET, my selection is on Dallas/Houston under the total. The Cowboys say they want to go down field more. I guess they do! They had a 3.9 yard per reception average last game. Both Rush and Lance were horrific. Their "big-play" receiver Lamb had six receptions but that totaled just 21 yards. Now they are up against a tough Houston defense. The Texans gave up 26 last game but that was Detroit, the highest scoring team in the NFL. No other opponent has gotten more than 24 off them since September. The Cowboys have been held to single-digits in 2 of their past 4. Its probably going to happen again tonight. Houston's offense isn't really in top form either. The Texans managed only 13 points in their last road game. Four of 5 all-time meetings have finished with 40 or less. Play on the under. |
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11-17-24 | Bengals v. Chargers UNDER 48 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Cake-Walk selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers Under. Tonight's game is a battle between offense and defense. The Bengals primarily go over the total. The Chargers tend to be the opposite. This game being hosted by the Chargers, I'm going under the high total. The Chargers are 7-2 to the under but even the two overs still finished with 44 and 39. All 9 of their games have finished with 44 or less and 8 of them finished with less than 40. They allow the fewest points in the NFL. The Bengals are off a shootout at Baltimore but their previous 2 road games finished with 35 and 24 points. This is the highest total for a Charger game. Even though the Bengals are up against the top socring defense, its even higher than most of their totals have been. Plenty of value and lots of room for us to work with. Play on the under. |
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11-17-24 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC North Game Of The Year is on Chicago. Some might think that I need to have my head checked to back the Bears in a game against the Packers. The Bears have dropped 3 in a row. They looked bad against the Patriots. They just fired their offensive coordinator. The Packers are off a bye. Green Bay has beaten the Bears 10 straight times. We need to understand that all those things are factored into the line. We're getting a lot more points than we would have been a month ago. Things change fast in the NFL. It wasn't long ago that the Bears were 4-2 and looking like a good team. They can get back there! Firing Shane Waldron was a good start. He wasn't working out. This move will help Caleb Williams. Thomas Brown has been here before and will be an upgrade. Brown was Carolina's offensive coordinator last year. With the Panthers, he took over play-calling duties for a three-week stretch in the middle of the season, when coach Frank Reich got fired. The Panthers covered the spread in 2 those 3 games with Brown calling plays, including the first, a 20-17 game at Tampa. The Packers are off a 10-point loss and before that, 7 of their previous 9 games were decided by 6 points or less. There will be no better way to quiet the voices than for the Bears to finally beat the Packers. It's going to be close and I believe they'll do it. Take the points. |
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11-17-24 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my AFC Total Of The Week is on Baltimore/Pittsburgh under. The weather doesn't look like it will cooperate. Its expected to be unseasonably pleasant for Sunday's game. That's OK. This total is still too high! The last 7 games between these teams had scores of: 17-10, 17-10, 16-14, 16-13, 20-19 and 19-14. See the pattern? All 6 finished with less than 40 points. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh showdowns feature hard-nosed defensive, close games. Harbaugh said this: "We're getting ready to play our best defensive game on Sunday." The Steelers allow 16.2 points a game, second in the NFL in scoring defense. This will be a "typical" Baltimore/Pittsburgh game with the final score staying beneath this high total. Play on the under. |
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11-14-24 | Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 48.5 | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my NFC Total Of the Week is on Washington and Philadelphia under. Washington's offense has been much better this season. Jayden Daniels has more than lived up to the hype. Daniels and his teammates haven't faced a defense playing the way this one is though. (Sorry, Steeler fans, it's true.) The Eagles defense enters Week 11 ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed (274.1) per game and tied for fifth in points allowed (17.9) per game. They allowed 6 points last game and are allowing an average of only 13 points over the past 5 games. Three of those 5 games finished with 40 or less. Washington't defense is also better than advertised and has gotten better as the season has progressed. The Commanders have conceded 15 of fewer points in 4 of their past 7. On the short week, look for this divisional battle to be low-scoring. |
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11-11-24 | Dolphins v. Rams UNDER 49 | Top | 23-15 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET my MNF Total Of The Month is on Miami/LA under. I won with the Dolphins when they covered against the Bills last week. This week, I'm shifting to the Miami total. The Rams offense has been better recently. Also, everyone knows that Tua Tagoavailoa makes the Miami offense a lot better. The problem is that when "everyone knows something," the value quickly disappears. In this case, this total is jacked way up. This total is now much higher than it was for Tua's first game back, against Arizona. But Arizona averages more points and more yards than the Rams. I think this number is an over-reaction and has gotten too high. Four of Miami's last 5 road games have finished with fewer than 34 points. The Rams are 3-1 to the under their past 4 games and have allowed 24 or less in 6 straight games. Play on the under. |
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11-10-24 | Lions v. Texans OVER 49 | Top | 26-23 | Push | 0 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Total Of the Year is on Detroit/Houston over. The Texans are going to need to score a lot of points, if they want to bounce back from last week's loss against the Jets. The Lions average 32.2 points per game, which happens to be the most in the NFL, entering Sunday. The Lions might have only scored 24 last game but they put up 52, 31, 47 and 42 points in their previous 4 games. Both teams rank in the top 11 in the NFL, as far as yards per game. He's still listed as questionable but Houston Nico Collins has been activated from the injured list. If he passes the pregame tests, the expectation is that he'll play. He's a big play threat and makes the Texans offense much better. The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 52 and they combined for 66. This will be another shootout. Play on the over. |
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11-10-24 | Jets -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
At 4:25pm ET, my NFL Game Of The Month is on the NY Jets. They don't have much room for error but the Jets are back! The victory over Houston gives them life. Their defense is really good. They sacked Stroud 8x last game. Rodgers already had a dangerous weapon in Garrett Wilson and the addition of Davante Adams makes the New York offense far more dangerous. The Jets have been off since Halloween and have a rest advantage. Rodgers: "If you want to be a great team, you've got to practice like a great team. And I think the last few weeks we've practiced a lot better." The Jets allow 290 yards a game, the Cardinals allow more than 361. Play on New York. |
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11-10-24 | Falcons v. Saints UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South Total Of The Year is on Atlanta/New Orleans under. This is generous number. Take away their first 2 games, which bumped up their average, and the Saints are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. New Orleans has scored 12, 24, 13, 27, 10, 8 and 22 points its last 7 games. That's an average of 16.57, less than 17 per game. Each of their last 3 games has finished with 45 or fewer points. New Orleans played well defensively last game. The Saints gave up just 246 total yards and conceded only 15 first downs. The Falcons just held Dallas to 21 points. Two of their past 3 games have gone to the under. Their offense managed only 310 total yards and 17 first downs last week. The Falcons were better against Tampa the previous week but Seattle held them to just 14 points the week before that. The total is higher than any of the past 7 Saints/Falcons totals. I'm going with the under. |
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11-10-24 | Giants v. Panthers UNDER 40.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
At 9:30am ET, my NFL Early Riser is on NY/Carolina Under. The Germany fans are being treated to a real dud. Both these teams are 2-7. Neither has any chance of the playoffs. Both the offenses are terrible. Each is dealing with some injuries. Hopefully it'll still be entertaining and competitive for any new fans, as they aren't going to be seeing many points. Rather, they will be treated to a low-scoring defensive display. Games between these teams in 2021 and 2022 finished with 35 and 28 points. These offenses are even worse. The Giants average 15.4 points per game, worst in the NFL. The Panthers average 277.9 yards of offense per game, worst in the NFC. Play on the under. |
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11-07-24 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 53 | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my AFC North Total Of the Year is on Cincinnati/Baltimore under. A very high total is being provided for this game. As a matter of fact, its likely higher than anything we'll encounter on Sunday or Monday. The AFC North rivals have played some high-scoring games against each other but none of them had totals listed as high as this one. Three of the Bengals' 4 road games have finished with 51 or fewer points. The Bengals last 2 road games had scores of 21-14 and 17-7. The Ravens allowed only 10 points last week. All 4 of their home games have finished with 53 or fewer points, 3 of those with 51 or less. Quarterbacks will draw a lot of attention but each time ran the ball more than 30x last week. All those running plays will help our cause. This number has gotten too high and I'm going with the under. |
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11-04-24 | Bucs +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Game Of The Month is on Tampa Bay. This is too many points to be giving a competitive Tampa Bay team. The Buccaneers are off a 5-point loss. The Chiefs are off a 7-point win. The Bucs have played 3 road games. They have 2 wins and a 6-point loss to show for them. Baker Mayfield is giving Tampa great QB play and the Bucs offense is tough to stop right now. Two of the Chiefs' 3 home games were very close. They beat Baltimore by 7, a game the Ravens were inches away from tying. They also beat the Bengals by 1 here. Eight of their past 10 games, since last year's playoffs, have been decided by 7 point or less. Nine of those 10 were decided by 10 or less. The Chiefs are happy to win the close ones. Mahomes commented: "However we have to win the football game, I'm good with it." This is going to be another close one. Grab the points. |
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11-03-24 | Saints v. Panthers +7.5 | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
At 1:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on Carolina. The Saints smashed the Panthers when these teams played the first time. That was in September, at New Orleans. The Saints were favored by 3.5 points. Now they are on the road and off 6 straight losses and they're laying even more points! That's because Carolina has been even worse than them. But now the Panthers are playing with divisional revenge. This see this game as a measuring stick to show how far they've come since that first game. Having been out of action, Carr may have some rust for the Saints. Bryce Young will get a 2nd straight start and will have worked off some of his own rust for the Panthers. Carolina coach Dave Canales: "I'm excited for Bryce to have the opportunity to build off some of the things he did last week." I think that is a game the Panthers will really want and it won't shock me when they pull off the upset. |
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11-03-24 | Dolphins +6.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 149 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my AFC East Game Of The Year is on Miami. The Dolphins may not have won last week's game but Tua Tagoavailoa returned and he brought the Dolphins offense back with him. They're an entirely different team with their starting QB under center. They scored 27 points last week, Tua going 28 of 38. After the game, the Dolphins star QB said that he felt good: “It feels good to be able to come back and play with my teammates to hopefully help in any way I can to get a spark going for us offensively. Or get the mojo going for the entire team. It was good today, but tough loss against a really good team." Expect Tua and the Dolphins to be ready to go against Buffalo. The Bills are returning from the West Coast. They played 3 road games in October and are dealing with a lot of injuries. Their big wins have come against weaker opposition. Their last divisional game was a hard-fought 3 point win over the Jets. The Bills won big at Miami, the game Tua got concussed, but the stats show that the Dolphins held them to 247 yards and 13 first downs. The Dolphins desperately need this game to turn their season around. They've got their leader back and will battle the Bills until the final whistle. Grab the points. |
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11-03-24 | Commanders v. Giants UNDER 44 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East Total Of The Year is on Washington and NY under. Five of the past 6 games between the Giants and Commanders have finished with 40 or fewer points. They combined for 39 points in Week 2. This will be another low-scoring divisional showdown. The Giants have scored 3 and 7 points in their last 2 home games. They rank 31st in the NFL with an average of 14.6 points per game. On the season, the Giants are 6-2 to the under. The Commanders have allowed 15 points or less in consecutive games and in 4 of their past 5 games overall. Washington's offense has been very good with QB Daniels looking to win the Rookie Of The Year. Daniels was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday with a rib injury though. He'll play but things won't be as easy as he's gotten accustomed to. Go Under. |
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10-31-24 | Texans v. Jets -127 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my AFC Game Of The Month is on the New York Jets. This is it for the Jets. They've already dug themselves a huge hole but another loss on Thursday and they'll have no hope at all. Interim coach Ulbrich said: "We've just got to be better collectively. Every single human being out there has got to be better. Aaron has got to be better. Coaches got to be better. All of us got to be better." Rodgers, for his part, commented: We've got to score touchdowns. Can't leave it up to Greg or try and pin it on Greg. We had a lot of opportunities to score 30, to make it a two-score game at times and didn't do it." Rodgers and the Jets WILL be better on Thursday. They are 1-2 here but they've played pretty well here, the losses came by 1 point and 3 points, to Buffalo. The Texans have been unbeatable at home but mediocre on the road. The Texans offense was already without Collins and now will be without Diggs. This will work in the Jets favor, as their turnaround starts here. |
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10-28-24 | Giants +6 v. Steelers | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my NFL Non-Conf. GOW is on the New York Giants. We're getting extra points with the Giants because of them being on the road. But they've been terrific on the road. In 3 road games, the G-Men are 2-1. They won at Seattle. They won at Cleveland. Their only road loss came by just 3 points, at Washington. The Steelers are riding high off their big wins over the Raiders and Jets. Their first 5 games were all decided by 10 or less though. They're 0-1 against the NFC East. Four meetings over the years were all decided by 10 or less. We saw that the Jets couldn't even beat the Patriots yesterday. So the Steelers having a big win against the Jets wasn't that special. Same with their win over the Raiders, who were really struggling at the time. They will have a far more difficult time with a Giants team which has talent and which is hell-bent on bouncing back with a victory. Grab the points. |
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10-27-24 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:20pm ET, my NFC Game Of the Month is on San Francisco. Both teams were probably hoping to be in a better place right now. Dallas started the season with a convincing win at Cleveland. Since then, America's Team is 2-3, just 1-3-1 versus the spread. The Cowboys had a bye last week but are still licking their wounds after a 47-9 shellacking at the hands of the Detroit Lions. The 49ers are off a loss to the defending world champions. Purdy didn't play well and they were still in position to win. A visit from the Cowboys will bring out the best in Purdy and the 49ers. San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS in 3 meetings with Dallas since January 2022. Purdy was 17 of 24 with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the last game. SF had a 25-8 edge in first downs. The Dallas run defense is a mess right now. Jordan Mason will have a big game and that will take pressure off Purdy. Shanahan out-coaches McCarthy and the 49ers beat the Cowboys for a 4th straight time. |
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10-27-24 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 41 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:25pm ET, my #1 October Total Of the Month is on Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Over. I won with the Chiefs under last week but their game still finished with 46 points. They scored 28 themselves and they scored 26 the previous game. This week's total is much lower than last week's. As a matter of fact, it's the lowest Chiefs total this season. The Chiefs offense will have a breakout game. Three of the Raiders' last 5 opponents have scored 32 or more points. Other than a loss the last time they played, KC's last loss of any kind, the Chiefs had scored 30 or more points 8 straight times against the Raiders. The Chiefs offense should get a big boost with the expected debut of DeAndre Hopkins. He went over 1000 yards for the 7th time in his career, just last season. The Raiders offense may not be good but they still average more than 18 points per game at home. They scored 20 last time they faced the Chiefs and have scored 79 their last 4 games against them. This score will finish over this low number. Play on the over. |
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10-27-24 | Ravens v. Browns +9.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my AFC North Game Of The Year is on the Cleveland Browns. One never wants to see a player injured and I'm sorry for Deshaun Watson that he got hurt. It happened though. (Some Browns fans actually cheered about the injury.) That gives us some extra value with the Browns betting line this week. We're getting more than a touchdown with t the home underdog in a bitter divisional rivalry. Better still, the Browns are going to be better for the change at the quarterback position. Watson has been a disaster for him. They'd invested too much in him to pull the plug but now that their hand has been forced, they can move on. For now, Jameis Winston will be an upgrade and will breathe some life into the Browns. The Ravens are playing well but they aren't unbeatable. Three of their wins came by 7 or less and their only divisional game was decided by 3 points. The last h2h meeting was decided by 2 points, a 33-31 win by the Browns. They have beaten Baltimore outright 3 of the past 5 meetings. Only 1 of the last 7 meetings has resulted in a Baltimore win of more than 6. This game will come down to the wire and the Browns have a great chance at the upset. Grab the points. |
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10-24-24 | Vikings v. Rams UNDER 48 | 20-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Super Total is on the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams Under. The Vikings may not have shown it against the Lions last week but they have been one of the best defensive teams in the NFL this season. They are 4-2 to the under. They allow just 17.8 points per game, 6th best in the league. In their 4 non-divisional games, the Vikings are allowing an average of less than 12 points. The Rams allowed only 15 points in last week's win. The offense still wasn't very good though as they managed only 15 1st downs and 259 yards. Stafford was 14 of 23 with 0 tds and 1 int. Kupp may be be but Williams is the man for the Rams. He got 21 carries last week and will be featured heavily once again. The Rams last 3 games have all finished with 43 or fewer points. They've already played the other 3 NFC North teams and all 3 games finished with 46 or less. This will be another low-scoring game. Play on the under. |
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10-21-24 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my NFL Total Of The Week is on Baltimore/Tampa under. Both teams have played some high-scoring games this month and those results have helped bring this total up. For some perspective, Tampa's last 4 games had totals of 42, 43, 43 and 40.5. These offenses are quite good. They both like to run the ball and neither are that easy to run against. As a matter of fact, the Baltimore run defense is ranked number 1 in the NFL, allowing 59.0 yards rushing per game. Baker Mayfield said this about Baltmore's defense: "They're physical. They want to be the bully, but they have those guys that set the tone for them on all three levels." Mayfield knows. He's faced Baltimore 9x over his career, posting an ugly 80.4 QB passer rating with 11 interceptions in 9 games. Only 2 of those 9 games finished with more than 50 points. Both of Lamar's 2 career starts versus Tampa finished with less than 50 points and they averaged 40.5. This game will stay under the big total. Play on the under. |
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10-20-24 | Jets -128 v. Steelers | Top | 15-37 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:20 ET, my Sunday Night Game Of The Month is on the NY JETS. Tomlin has been a great coach for a long time. I'm not sure about his logic in bringing in Russell Wilson to start this game though. His team is 4-2 and off a 32-13 win. Fields didn't throw any touchdowns but he ran for 2 and he didn't thrown any interceptions. Most importantly, the team has been winning with Fields behind center. Tampering with something which is already working isn't always wise. (You know the saying!) Wilson is going to have some rust and he hasn't been very good for a long time. The Jets have lost some close ones but they've also been playing some tough opponents. Their last 2 games came against the Vikings and Bills. They faced the 49ers earlier. Breece Hall really got rolling (169 total yards) last game and their offense just received a huge upgrade with the addition of Adams at receiver. The Steelers strength is their defense but the Jets are better on defensively than the Steelers! They allow 273 yards per game (2nd best in NFL) compared to Pittsburgh's 294. Pittsburgh isn't entirely healthy. The Steelers will be without a number of players including running back/return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson, tackle Dylan Cook, center Zach Frazier and linebacker Nick Herbig. Receiver Roman Wilson and defensive tackle Montravius Adams are questionable. Give me Rodgers and the Jets over Wilson and the Steelers! |
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10-20-24 | Chiefs v. 49ers UNDER 48 | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
At 4:25pm ET, my HOOK N LADDER play is on SF/KC under. Mahomes vs. Purdy. Shanahan vs. Reid. Kelce vs. Kittle. A Super Bowl rematch. You gotta love it! Though it will be great to see these heavyweights duke it out, they won't be doing so with all their weapons. The 49ers are still without their #1 offensive weapon, as McCaffrey remains out. His backup Jordan Mason left last week's game with a sore shoulder. He'll be good to go but maybe less than 100%. Ditto for Deebo Samuel. SF will also be without receiver Jennings and he's had some big games for them. Their kicking situation is a mess. The Chiefs may be even more short-handed. They play without Pacheco, Brown and Rice, their best runner and 2 best receivers. Smith-Schuster is questionable with a hamstring injury. He's likely to go but again, maybe not with full health. The world champions have allowed 13, 10 and 17 points their last 3 games. With all the offensive injuries, this will be a low-scoring game. Play on the under |
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10-20-24 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East Game Of The Year is on the Philadelphia Eagles. The last time that these teams played each other, Saquon Barkley scored the first 2 touchdowns of the game. With Barkley paving the way, the Giants got off to a 24-0 lead and won 27-10. Prior to that, the Eagles had beaten the Giants 5 straight times, each win coming by more than 5 points. The problem for the Giants, or at least one of them, is that Saquon is now going to be playing against them. He's already got 574 yards with five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in five games this season. Complementing Barkley, the Eagles got top receiver A.J. Brown back last week and he immediately had a huge game. The Giants could use Barkley back, as their offense is a mess. They're averaging 16 points a game, fewest in the NFC. The NY defense has been good but not good enough to make up for the lack of offense. The Giants scored only 7 points last week. Their kicker missed both FG's. The team has lost some confidence in him and he will have lost some himself. The Giants have been decent on the road but they are 0-3 at Met Life Stadium. Look for the home fans to turn hostile with Barkley and the Eagles walking away with a convincing win and cover. |
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10-20-24 | Patriots v. Jaguars -6.5 | 16-32 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
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10-17-24 | Broncos v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my TNF Total Of The Month is on Denver/New Orleans under. The total might seem low but its really not low enough. The Saints are missing their QB and #1 receiver. Rookie Spencer Rattler was forced to throw to catch up against the Bucs but that's not how New Orleans wants it. The Saints will look to employ a more conservative gameplan tonight. The Broncos have a rookie QB of their own. Though it may seem that Bo Nix has had some quality moments, he still has only the 34th best passer rating (73.7) in the NFL. The Broncos make up for it with their defense. They allowed just 10 and 9 points in their last 2 road games. They rank in the top 5 of the NFL for points allowed and yards allowed. The Saints' defensive numbers aren't as good but you know that Saints' coach Allen will, Payton's former defensive coordinator, will have his defense fired up for a bounce-back effort. Also, the Denver offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL and won't be capable of taking advantage of any New Orleans defensive deficiencies. With 2 rookies behind center and two coaches that know each other well, this game will feature a lot of running the ball and will be a low-scoring defensive battle. Go with the under. |
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10-14-24 | Bills v. Jets OVER 40 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Total Of The Month is on the Bills and Jets over. These may be good defenses but this total is too low. Even off a bad game, the Bills still average 28.4 points per game. Josh Allen has vowed to be better. The Jets average 18.3 but they've hit 24 twice, including once in their only divisional game. Like Allen, Rodgers is vowing to improve. Rodgers and the Jets offense will benefit from the change in play-calling. In addition to the firing of head-coach Saleh, the Jets are handing the play-calling duties to passing game coordinator Todd Downing, as opposed to Nathaniel Hackett. The Bills have allowed 23 and 35 points their last 2 games. Each of their last seven games, including all five this season, has finished with at least 41 points. Monday's game will continue that streak. Play on the Over. |
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10-13-24 | Chargers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 104 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 ET, my AFC West Game Of The Year is on the Los Angeles Chargers. Some might have been surprised to see the Chargers open as small road favorites. Those same people would likely have been even more confused when the line climbed and the Chargers became an even larger favorite. Rest assured, the oddsmakers got this one right. LA deserves to be favored. (Sharps would be pounding the Chargers all day if they weren't favored.) The Chargers just had a bye at the perfect time. They were off back-to-back losses and dealing with some injuries to key players. They're healthier now, well-rested and well-prepared. The Broncos are known for their defense but with 12.6 points allowed per game, it's the Chargers who come in allowing the fewest points in the NFL. On offense, though Nix has impressed as a rookie, I'll side with the far more experienced Herbert, JK Dobbins and the Chargers. We're backing what I believe to be the better team, in a situation where they are coming off a bye and where they badly need a victory. Lay the small number. |
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10-13-24 | Jaguars v. Bears OVER 44.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show | |
At 9:30am ET, my Sunday Morning Super Total is on Jacksonville/Chicago over. Both teams are 3-2 to the under. But both were 3-1 to the under before last week. Things changed for both teams. The Jaguars offense came to life in a 37-34 victory over Colts. Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards but the defense allowed Joe Flacco to throw for almost as many. The Bears offense has continued to improve all season and last week they scored 36 points against Carolina. Williams threw for more than 300 yards. The Bears probably could have scored more if they needed to but Carolina didn't put up a fight. They'll need to score a lot to keep pace with the rejuvenated Jaguars. With both offenses at the top of their games, the fans at Tottenham Stadium will be treated to an exciting high-scoring game. Play on the over. |
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10-10-24 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 36-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Night GOM is on San Francisco. Each of these teams lost last week. Both are coming in very hungry for a win. San Francisco coughed up a double-digit 4th quarter lead, something previously unheard of under Kyle Shanahan. Everyone is focusing in on the blown lead but its also important to recognize that the 49ers were up big in the 4th and in a position to cover. The 49ers are still a well-coached Super Bowl contender. They're still very probably going to win the NFC West and winning Thursday's game in Seattle will be a big step towards that. The Seahawks are not a Super Bowl contender. They got off to a hot start, thanks partly due to a soft early schedule, but have come back down to earth. They have the youngest coach in the NFL. The 49ers average the 2nd most yards in the NFL, the most in the NFC. Not only do they average more yards than the Seahawks, they also allow less. The 49ers have won 5 straight games in the series, 2 of those coming in Seattle. All 5 victories came by more than a touchdown. Make it 6 straight after Thursday. |
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10-07-24 | Saints v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Game Of the Month is on Kansas City. The Chiefs have won some close ones and the Saints have won some blowouts. That has some people thinking the Saints are better than they really are and that the Chiefs aren't as good as they really are. Otherwise, this line could easily be -7 or higher. The Chiefs do have some injuries to a couple of key offensive weapons and that's getting a lot of attention. Mahomes still has weapons though and he and Kelce are finally on the same page again. Also, the Saints have their own injury issues that aren't getting talked about nearly so much. New Orleans tight end Taysom Hill, guard Cesar Ruiz, center Shane Lemieux, linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and defensive end Payton Turner were all ruled out and their list is much longer than that. The Saints 2 blowout wins came in the first 2 weeks. Since then, they've had a close win and a close loss. That close loss (to the division rival Falcons) in their last game was a costly one. It was a game they let get away and it will still be replaying in their minds. Off that painful loss and with another division showdown on deck, they are now taking on the world champs while playing their 2nd straight road game. The Chiefs get a bye next week. They beat Miami by 7 before their bye last season and they smashed SF 44-23 before their bye the previous year. The year before was a 10-point win over Dallas. They will be ready to do it again tonight. Lay the points. |
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10-06-24 | Cowboys v. Steelers OVER 43 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:20 ET, my October Non-Conf. Total Of The Month is on Dallas/Pittsburgh over. I won with the under in the Cowboys last game. That was a divisional battle on a short week. Plus, the total was higher. This non-conference clash will be a lot higher-scoring. Dallas doesn't effectively run the ball. That leads to a lot of passing and clock stoppages. CeeDee Lamb gets in a zone and he and Prescott are nearly unstoppable. Before the low-scoring NYG contest, every Dallas game had finished with at least 50 points. And those 3 games averaged more than 55. Some key defenders are out on both sides, including pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence . Dallas also doesn't effectively stop the run. That will help the Steelers, as their effective running game will set up their passing attack. The Steelers are off a 27-24 game against the Colts. Fields had a big game and he also had a great game (17 of 23, 151 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 60 rushing yards and a rushing TD) with a 120 QB rating when he previously faced Dallas. The final score was 49-29. This will be another high-scoring game. Play on the over. |
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10-06-24 | Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:05pm ET, my NFC West Game Of the Year is on Arizona. The 49ers are a strong team but they will have their hands full with the Cardinals on Sunday. At 1-3, Arizona is coming in desperate. The Cardinals could have a better record and have played pretty well in 3 of 4 games. Their only road game was a 6-point loss at Buffalo and they very nearly won that game. The 49ers earned a big victory last week. That was against a New England team which isn't very good. This divisional opponent has a lot more teeth and comes in needing and expecting to win. The 49ers have a plethora of injuries. Key players Fred Warner and George Kittle both missed Wednesday practice. Whether or not they play remains to be seen but either way this team is not healthy. Before the win over New England, the 49ers were off consecutive losses. Things aren't all better yet and they will get surprised by their upset-minded guests. Grab the points. |
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10-06-24 | Jets v. Vikings OVER 40 | 17-23 | Push | 0 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
At 9:30am ET, my NFL Early Riser is on the Jets and Vikings over. This number is low. Though the Jets played a low-scoring game last week, that wasa against Denver in bad weather conditions. A game against the Vikings, in North London, will play out much differently. The Vikings combined with the Packers for 60 points last week. Minnesota allowed the Packers to gain 465 total yards of offense. The Vikings are averaging 29 points per game, 4th best in the NFL. Darnold is playing great at QB and now he gets a chance to stick it to his old team. Remember, his time in New York didn't go well. He will like nothing better than to have a big game. Rodgers got banged up last game but says he's good to go. The Pack threw for nearly 400 yards against the Vikings and Rodgers should also be able to effectively move the ball. There have been 8 games played at Tottenham. All 8 finished with 40 or more points. This one will do the same. Play on the over. |
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10-03-24 | Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 43.5 | Top | 30-36 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:15 ET, my NFC South Total Of The Month is on Atlanta/TB under the total. The pattern the past 2 seasons between these divisional rivals has been to play a low-scoring game against each other early in the season and a higher scoring rematch later on. Last year, the first meeting between these teams finished with a score of 16-13. The previous year, the first meeting finished at 21-15. This will be another low-scoring battle. Tampa just held the Eagles to 16 points last game. The Eagles only had 227 total yards and 16 first downs. As a matter of fact, the 227 yard effort was the Eagles fewest yards since October 14, 2021, when they gained just 213 yards. (That was also against the Bucs.) The Eagles' 114 net passing yards was also their fewest since that same game in 2021. In their only road game, the Bucs held Detroit to just 16 points. Atlanta has also playing solid defense. The Falcons last game went over but their first 3 all stayed under the total. Overall, Falcon games are averaging only 40 combined points. Play on the under. |
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09-29-24 | Bills v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:20 ET, my AFC Total Of The Month is on Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Under. We're treated to a great game on Sunday night. The Bills have been the most impressive team through 3 weeks. They're 3-0 and their last 2 games haven't been close. Can the Ravens hand them their first loss? Of course they can. Will they? I'm not certain. I do fully believe that the Ravens will slow them down though. Buffalo has been scoring a lot of points but the reality is that the Bills are averaging just 329 yards of offense. That ranks only 13th. That's only partly a result of being able to take their foot off the gas when leading. They've also benefitted from a lot of short fields. The Ravens are going to make things a lot more difficult. They just really slowed Dallas last game. They lead the league in rushing yards allowed. Teams haven't been able to run against them and that makes throwing a lot more difficult. With only 16 points allowed per game, the Bills defense has also been thriving. The last 3 h2h games between the Bills and Ravens finished with 41, 20 and 43 points. All three went to the under. So does Sunday night's game. |
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09-29-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 41 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:25pm, my AFC West Total Of The Month is on KC/LA over. I won with the Chiefs under in their last game. That was against a stingy Atlanta team and the total was quite a lot higher. I don't think the Chargers are as good defensively as the Falcons (right now) and this number is quite a lot lower. Accordingly, I will now be backing the over. Much will be made of Herbert's questionable status. Of course, he's very important but it's also important to recognize that the Chargers defense is a mess right now. This is a team with numerous defensive injuries. Mahomes will take the opportunity to get himself right. Nine of the past 10 meetings have finished with 41 or more points and six of the last 7 finished with at least 48 points. Notably, the only Chiefs/Chargers game which was low-scoring was one where the Chiefs rested Mahomes, Kelce and other starters. They'll have the "A-lineup" in the game for this one and they'll ensure it finishes with more than enough to get us over this low number. |
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09-29-24 | Saints v. Falcons -130 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South GOY is on the Atlanta Falcons. Off a loss to the Chiefs, the Falcons are 1-2. The Saints also check in off a loss, their first of the season, as they fell to the Eagles. (The Falcons beat that same Philadelphia team.) The Saints are tied on top of the division with Tampa and Atlanta is tied with Carolina in the baseball. That makes this a critical game in the standings for the Falcons. They lose this one and its going to be a hard uphill battle all year long. The Saints offense came back down to earth last week. Kamara looks like he'll be good to play but he may not be 100%. He'll be running behind a banged-up Saints offensive line. Starting center Erik McCoy is already out and Cesar Ruiz has missed back to back days of practice. The Saints smashed the Falcons at New Orleans to end last season. The Falcons won 24-15 at home though. Home field will make a big difference once again. Atlanta rises up and declares that its going to be a player in the division this season! |
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09-26-24 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
At 8:15 pm ET, my Thursday Super Total is on the Giants/Cowboys under the total. The Cowboys have gone over in all 3 games. That will change for this weeknight divisional showdown. The Giants are 3-0 to the under. Their games have produced 34, 39 and 36 points. Recent meetings between these teams at Dallas have been high-scoring. That's not the case when the Cowboys visit New York. The under is 4-0 the past 4x Dallas played here. Those scores were 40-0, 23-16, 21-6 and 23-19. Motivated to improve defensively, the Cowboys will be pleased to face the Giants. New York is averaging only 15 points per game, 29th in the NFL. Daniel Jones also tends to struggle against the Cowboys. The Giants are going to need their defense to play well if they want to remain competitive and they will do their very best to keep the Dallas offense on the sidelines. The Cowboys are also going to be anxious to get their running game going. The clock is going to keep ticking away and the final score is going to stay under the posted number. |
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09-23-24 | Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:30 ET, my Monday Night Football Game Of The Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Always nice to get treated to 2 Monday night games! The first features the Bills hosting the Jaguars. Buffalo is 2-0 and Jacksonville is 0-2. Both teams are 1-1 versus the pointspread. The Jaguars won't panic but they know they need this game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence said this: "We can't hit the panic button, but we've got to have some real conversations. We've got too good of a team to come out here and perform two weeks in a row like this. I mean, these games are precious and you don't get them back, and we're 0-2 to start the year and it's not going to get any easier. We'd better fix it quick." The Jaguars have a couple of ex-Bills on the roster and they are going to be extra motivated to take on their old team. Josh Allen didn't have to do much last week against Miami. The Dolphins' QB got knocked out. Buffalo benefitted from short fields and just had to run the ball. Things will be different on Monday. The Jaguars beat the Bills in 2021 and 2023, both very close games. That's 7 straight h2h meetings decided by 7 or less. This will be another close one and I'll take the points! |
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09-22-24 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 46.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
At 8:20 ET, my Sunday Super Smash is on the Falcons/Chiefs under. Something has to give. The Chiefs have gone over in both their games. The Falcons have gone under in both of theirs. Look for the Atlanta under streak to be the one which continues for another game. The Falcons are only averaging 16 points a game but their defense has been outstanding. The Chiefs offense was nothing special against the Bengals and is likely to have some trouble against this improved Atlanta defense. It won't help that they will be without their leading rusher, Isiah Pacheco. They'll still try and run the ball a lot but it's just going to be more difficult. The Falcons only home game finished with 28 points. This one will also be low-scoring! Play on the under. |
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09-22-24 | Ravens v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:25pm ET, my Non-Conf. TOW is on Baltimore/Dallas under. Both teams have a good offense. Both also have a good defense. With both teams having been involved in some high-scoring games already, the total is quite high. None of the past 4 head-to-head meetings have had totals of greater than 45. The Ravens have three new starters on their offensive line and that will hinder their offense. Dallas will be better defensively than it was against the Saints. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said this about the run defense: "We made some technique adjustments that we need to be better at," "We can't get gapped, and we were gapped time and time again. That puts more pressure on your second-level defenders, obviously your linebackers and our primary support element. But yeah, we have to. It's that first step, the discipline, playing the technique, and making sure the fit behind them is in order. We definitely were not clean and we weren't consistent." Quarterbacks are both excellent but running the ball will still be a key for both teams. The Cowboys only gave up 35 or more points twice last season. They allowed 13 and 17 points in the following games, both going to the under. We will see a hard-hitting game with the final score staying below the total. |
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09-22-24 | Packers v. Titans -133 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -133 | 116 h 10 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFL GOM is on the Tennessee Titans. The Green Bay Packers survived their first test without Jordan Love. They defeated Indianapolis by a 16-10 score. That was a home game against a Colts team finding its way. Now they go on the road to face a Tennessee Titans team which is playing better than its 0-2 record makes it seem. The Titans have outgained both of their opponents and could easily be 1-1 or 2-0. They are going to be far more difficult for the Packers to run against than the Colts were. That will force Green Bay's young backup QB to throw. Last week, Willis only needed to throw for 122 yards. The Titans play 3 of their next 4 games and 6 of their last 9 on the road. They don't want to be going into that difficult stretch at 0-3. The Titans are 3-0 all-time against the Packers at Nissan Stadium. They also beat them on a Thursday night at Lambeau in 2022. The Jordan Love injury will catch up to the Packers and the Titans will do it again Sunday afternoon. Play on Tennessee. |
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09-19-24 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Night Total Of The Year is on New England and New York under the total. This total might appear low but there is still plenty of room to go under. The Patriots are averaging 300 yards of offense per game but they'll be unlikely to match that against a very good Jets' defense. The Jets are averaging just 265.5 yards of offense. Only 5 teams are worse. Allowing just 291 yards per game, the Patriots defense is playing well. Their 16.5 points allowed per game is 5th best in the NFL. The last 3 meetings between these teams had scores of 10-3, 15-10 and 17-3. The Patriots had only 6 first downs and 119 yards in the last game. New York wasn't all that much better. This sets up to be another tough defensive battle with frequent running plays keeping the clock moving and drives ending in punts and field goals as opposed to touchdowns. Play on the Under. |
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09-16-24 | Falcons +5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
AT 8:15pm ET, my NFL GOW is on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta stumbled 18-10 at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1. That wasn't what they wanted but I think the Falcons will bounce back and keep this one competitive with a really decent shot at the upset. Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins looked out of sorts with his new offense, but the veteran will settle down here in his second start. Bijan Robinson rushed for 68 yards on 18 carries. The silver-lining? Clearly it was Atlanta's defense. And now Atlanta faces this suspect Philly defense. Though I won with them, the Eagles looked anything but dominant in their 34-28 win over the Packers from Brazil in Week 1. Jalen Hurts had 278 yards passing, two TDs, but also two INTs. Now Hurts will be without his favorite receiver with A.J. Brown on the sidelines. Philly also committed seven penalties and was just 4-of-14 on third down. Coming back from Brazil is a new dynamic and may not be as easy as people expect. Give me the points with the Atlanta Falcons. |
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09-15-24 | Bears v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:20 ET, my #1 Total Of The Month is on Chicago/Houston Under. Both teams enter at 1-0. Chicago is off a 24-17 win over Tennessee, while Houston posted the 29-27 road win at division rival Houston. Both scores could have been lower. The Houston score was only 15-13 into the 4th quarter. Twenty-eight points were scored in the final 14 minutes. Chicago's defense led the charge in its Week 1 victory, with TJ Edwards posting a team-high 15 total tackles. The Bears allowed just 244 total yards. The Chicago offense was even worse though. As a matter of fact, the Bears managed only 148 total yards and just 11 first downs. So, their 24 points scored was misleading. They will try and take pressure off their young QB with a more effective ground game this week. CJ Stroud had 234 passing yards and two TD's in Houston's Week 1 win. But it was RB Joe Mixon who carried the offensive load with 159 rushing yards and a TD. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense, look for the time to keep ticking and the combined final score to stay under. |
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09-15-24 | Chargers v. Panthers +5.5 | 26-3 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
At 1:00pm ET, my Sunday Super Blitz is on Carolina. The Chargers may look easy at first glance but I'm going to recommend caution. In fact, I feel that they're getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in their first road game of the season. Jim Harbaugh got his first win as head coach of the Chargers in last week's 22-10 home victory over the Raiders. He's not going to work miracles immediately though and now he hits the road for two straight, before a home game with the Chiefs. The Chargers are a different team than they were last year, but it's still significant to note that they were just 3-5 SU on the road last season. Carolina fell 47-10 at New Orleans as a 3.5-point dog, but I expect Bryce Young to be a lot sharper here in Week 2 at home. Last year, in Week 1, the Giants got blown out 40-0. Everyone was really down on them but they came back and won outright in Week 2. The Steelers were another team which was blown out in Week 1 and won outright in Week 2. As for the Panthers, they lost by 14 in Week 1 and were far more competitive in a 3-point Week 2 loss. The morale of the story is not to over-react to a Week 1 blowout loss. Carolina will be better and will get us at least the cover on Sunday afternoon. |
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09-15-24 | Giants v. Commanders -123 | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East GOM is on Washington. Home-field advantage will prove to be important to the final outcome of this contest. The Giants earned an upset here last season but Washington had a 404 to 292 advantage in total offense. Neither team can be happy after Week 1, with Washington falling 37-20 at Tampa Bay, and the Giants stumbling 28-6 at home to Minnesota. Daniel Jones signed a massive off-season contract and was downright terrible. I just can't see this Giants' offense keeping pace with the Commanders. Jones had 186 yards passing, zero TD's and two INT's and the Giants' run game only produced a paltry 74 yards. New York's defense also looked poor in allowing the 28 points at home. Jayden Daniels only threw for 186 yards. He didn't have any interceptions though and completed 17 of 24 passes. Much better than Jones, in my opinion. The Washington run game was solid with 130 yards on the ground. The Giants are just 1-7 their last 8 road games, the win here was their only victory. It's not happening again. Washington wins its home opener! |
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09-12-24 | Bills v. Dolphins -2 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15pm ET, my AFC East GOM is on Miami. Want to hear an amazing stat? We have to go back several years but Miami has won ten straight divisional home contests as a favorite. Of course, this number is low enough that a victory will very likely also result in a cover. The Fish have to be feeling confident here after their 20-17 home win over Jacksonville. Tua had over 300 yards passing with a TD and the defense looked great overall in holding the Jags to just the 17 points. The short week shoujld also benefit Miami. No travel and sleeping in their own beds. This is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 21-14 in Week 18 at home to the Bills, the victory clinching the AFC East title for Buffalo at the time. As a matter of fact, that was the Bills' 4th straight win (and 9th win the last 10) in the series. The time is right to snap that series skid as Buffalo's defense left a lot to be desired after its come-from-behind 34-28 win over the Cardinals. Lay the small number. |
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09-09-24 | Jets v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 19-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:20 ET my NFL GOW is on the SF 49ers. While some may think the underdog Jets have a chance on Monday night, I'm not among them. This is still just Aaron Rodgers second game ever for his new team after suffering a season-ending injury on his first snap from scrimmage last year. The books out on the veteran's performance and he clearly has a difficult assignment here in San Francisco. The very well-coached 49ers will be very wary of trying to avoid a "Super Bowl hangover." They are Super Bowl contenders and they want to come set the tone for the season. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are both healthy and ready to go on opening night and they'll present a difficult challenge for this admittedly talented Jets' defensive unit. Rodgers is a big question mark, as is his chemistry with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Purdy's receiving corps though is stacked, with tight-end George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. I think Rodgers will improve as the season goes on, but I'm not getting behind a 40-year old on the road, coming off such a serious injury. The pointspread is low and I will lay the points with San Francisco. |
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09-08-24 | Rams +4.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:20 ET, my NFC GOW is on the LA Rams. Last year the Detroit Lions went on the road and upset the Chiefs 21-20 in Week 1. This year it's the LA Rams looking to pull off a similar upset and in my opinion, the visiting side does indeed have much more than just a "punchers chance" to win this one outright. This is a playoff rematch that saw Detroit hold on for the tight 24-23 home win in the Wild Card, unable to cover the three-point spread. I'm expecting a similar battle until the end here in the opener. That means the underdog is offering real value, particularly with the spread having climbed since it came out. This has some really interesting story lines, with Matthew Stafford once again returning to his old team, and the Rams squaring off against former QB Jared Goff. But note, the last regular season game between the team's was back in 2021 and Stafford had 334 passing and three TD's, while Goff had 268 yards, a TD and two picks. Expectations are sky-high for the Lions, as all I hear around the "water cooler" is that Detroit has the best shot coming out of the NFC. I'm not completely convinced though and believe there could be some regression this year. Either way, this Week 1 contest will come down to the wire. The Rams are 6-3-1 versus the spread their last 10 as underdogs. Grab the points. |
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09-08-24 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET my NFC South TOM is on Carolina and NO to go under the total. Clearly, this is an important early season game for both of these NFC South hopefuls. I'm not 100% positive who in fact will win cover the spread in this game, but whoever does, it will be because of having the better defensive unit, as I do indeed expect this total to fall under the posted number. Dave Canales is now directing the show in Carolina, with Bryce Young once again back under center. Canales is known as an offensive coach but he's not working with much and its going to take time to implement his schemes. The Saints are led by Derek Carr for a second straight year. He was far from amazing last year and Saints fans are already talking about who will replace him. These teams of course met twice last year, with New Orleans coming out on top of each. Each was a lower-scoring battle, with the Saints holding on for the 20-17 victory in Week 2 on the road, before then winning 28-6 at home in December. Nothing is going to change here as far as the pace and tempo, with the improved New Orleans defense setting the tone. This number is high, the play is the under. |
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09-06-24 | Packers v. Eagles -128 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
This is the first time ever that the NFL has played in South America. I say that the conditions are right for a big Philly victory. Both sides finished second in their respective divisions. Philly went 10-1 to open the season, and then fell off before losing to Tampa in the Wildcard. But I'm expecting another quick start for Jalen Hurts and company this season, despite this "home" game being played in Brazil. Philly fans may not be happy that they're losing a "home" game this year. But it also does put added emphasis onto this one for the Eagles. The Packers and Jordan Love finished 9-8 and beat the Cowboys in the Wildcard, before falling to San Fran in the Divisional. Jordan Love started slowly last year and then found his footing later on. Love should be better this year, but the book is now out on him. Philadelphia is the deeper and more experienced team and I believe it'll find a way to deliver the goods on this rare Friday night contest. |
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09-05-24 | Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a interesting opening game this year, as Kansas City looks for a third straight championship. In Week 1 they'll face the Baltimore Ravens, who won the AFC last season. KC though won 17-10 in the Playoffs to advance over the Ravens last year. Baltimore went 12-5-1 ATS in the regular season and LaMar Jackson and company were 2-0 ATS as road dogs. That said, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are 3-1 vs. Baltimore in the regular season. The Ravens added dynamic running back Derrick Henry, who will now have to face one of the league's best defensive units. In fact, both teams excel defensively with each finishing among the league leaders in almost every category. These are two great QB's, but this one has the feel of being a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe in my opinion. With a lot of running keeping the clock moving, I foresee another tight low-scoring contest between these rivals, so the play is the under. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 269 h 55 m | Show |
This is not the same Kansas City team that faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl 4 years ago. This year's Chiefs are a defensive team. That's how they got here. They allowed 17.3 points a game in the regular season and they're allowing just 13.7 ppg in the playoffs. San Francisco can make the same claim. The 49ers allowed 17.5 ppg in the regular season, the fewest of any NFC team. Though the playoff numbers aren't as impressive, you just saw their defense stiffen and hold the Lions to 7 second half points. The Chiefs have now seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with 46 or fewer points. Only 1 of their last 17 games has finished with more than 48. This will not be a high scoring game and the total is too high. Go with the Under! |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 147 h 51 m | Show |
The Lions won't have the Detroit fans to support them. They're thousands of miles away on the West Coast. Last week was a fortunate matchup as they faced Tampa Bay, a team which was only in the playoffs because of the division it plays in. Now, they face the top team in the NFC. The 49ers didn't play nearly their best against the Packer and they still won. They'll be better this week. Not having to travel will prove to be helpful. Now is also when the 49ers will benefit from their Wildcard Rd bye, a luxury which the Lions didn't have. This is the best Detroit team in some time but the 49ers are better on both sides of the ball. San Francisco was third in points scored per game while Detroit finished fifth. The bigger difference is on the other side of the ball. The 49ers’ defense finished third in points allower per game while the Lions finished 23rd in that category. They say that defense wins championships. Lay the points and expect that saying to ring true of the NFC Championship game on Sunday. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 143 h 19 m | Show |
The Chiefs went over the total in their game against the Bills. Depending on the time and place, the Ravens game either landed right on the total or went over it. With those games having quite a lot of points, Sunday's AFC Championship O|U line is quite high. Too high. We're talking about the top 2 scoring defenses in the NFL. In the regular season, Baltimore allowed 16.5 points a game. KC allowed 17.3. They've also allowed the fewest points in the playoffs. The Ravens allowed 10 points. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5. These teams are going to pound the rock, especially the Ravens. It's not always conventional but they run more than any team. They ran 42 times last week against Houston. That keeps the clock moving and under the total on Sunday. |