|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-25-21||Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5||10-8||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
Atlanta (Ynoa, 4-5, 3.43) vs San Diego (Velasquez, 3-8, 6.23)
The struggling Padres picked up Velasquez for some much needed starting help. So far it hasn’t worked. His last start was only three days ago but it only lasted 1 inning. Since joining the Padres, he has given up more than a run an inning in 2 starts. Considering how hard the Padres’ bullpen has been used (5 innings per game over the last 7), we may see more of Velasquez today than would be ideal.
Atlanta rookie Ynoa has delivered short adequate starts in September but his ERA has slipped to 5.12. The Braves’ pen has been lightly used and very effective of late with an ERA of 2.66 in their last seven games.
The Padres’ bats are also struggling, especially in the last week. The Braves, still in line for the play-offs, have been top-three in offense this week. The Braves are a very strong road team, 5-1 in their last 6 games, and good against right-handers. Considering Velasquez’s and the Padres relievers’ struggles, I am wagering on the total in the first half. Watch this game go over the total for the first five innings.
|09-24-21||Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5||6-5||Loss||-109||11 h 31 m||Show|
Mariners (Gilbert, 6-5, 4.74) vs Angels (Suarez, 7-8, 3.67)
A pair of achieving youngsters are on the mound in the Mariners/ Angels match up. Rookie Logan Gilbert has settled down to be a very strong starter, especially in September. He is 1-0, with an ERA of 2.01 in 4 starts, and has worked his way up to 6 and 7 innings lately. The Angels have had no luck against Gilbert. 23 year old lefty, Jose Suarez is 2-1 in his last three games, giving up 5 runs over his last 20+ innings. The Mariners have hit Suarez well this season.
The Mariners are still in the thick of the wild card race, and have won 5 straight. Their bullpen has been lightly used and effective of late. They are a very good road team and solid vs left-handers.
The Rangers are 1-6, and basically out in the pasture, looking over the fence. Their hitting is in the bottom 10% of the league at the moment, and they struggle against the right. Add to that, an overused and ineffective bullpen (5.67 of late) and you do not have a recipe for success.
I like many aspects in this game but the total in the first half stands out. Take the Under in the first five innings.
|09-24-21||Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9||8-5||Win||105||5 h 5 m||Show|
Cardinals (Happ, 9-8, 6.02) vs Cubs (Steele, 3-3, 4.20)
The Cards and Cubs meet up for a double header on Friday. Happ starts the first game for the Cardinals. It looked like Happ had re-found his form in August, finishing the month with a 2.22 ERA. September has been much crueler; he had an 8.22 Era in 4 games. He still delivers 5 innings a game.
Justin Steele has been effective in September, allowing 9 runs over 14 innings. He averages 4 to 5 innings per start. The problem for Steele is that the Cubs’ bullpen has been very poor (6.61 Era in the last 7 games), and short starts won’t win many games in Chicago.
The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and have been scoring a ton of runs. The Cubs have been pretty average in offense and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Basically going through the motions. The Cards are a very good road favorite, and a strong 22-13 vs left-handers.
I like the Cards’ chances here but Happ can give up a lot of runs in a hurry. The total is average for 7 innings. Take the total to go over.
|09-23-21||Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8||8-5||Loss||-102||7 h 44 m||Show|
Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.89) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.43)
The Cards are the hottest team in baseball, whipped the Brewers on Wednesday, and are 10-0 in their last ten games. And they have their ace Adam Wainwright, the ageless one, on the mound. The only thing that stands in the way of a 4 game sweep of the Brewers is Adrian Houser. His last start was his worst in some time (4 ER over 4 innings), but his two previous were shut-outs of 6 and 9 inning duration. This has the makings of a real pitcher’s duel and, a rarity this late in the season, both teams have very sharp bullpens.
The Cards, modest hitting usually, are punching well above their weight, while Milwaukee is in the doldrums. Their collective batting avg. is below .200 of late, and they have won only 2 of their last 6 games. The Cards are a very good road team, and are on a terrific roll at the moment. They have won their way into wild-card potential.
I like the Cards here, but I like the Total more. Take the total to go under.
|09-20-21||Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8||2-0||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
Orioles (Means: 5-7, 3.41) vs Phillies (R.Suarez 6-4, 1.50)
The Orioles have a lamentable record and you don’t need to look further than their pitching for the reason. John Means has been as close as you can find to a starter with acceptable stats, but with a bullpen that struggles to the tune of 8.63/ L7, a winning record is unlikely. Note that Means’ WHIP is a solid 1.00 for the season.
Ranger Suarez is as good as anyone since converting to “starter-dom” and has stretched out to 6 innings per outing. He is a sparkling 5-0 with an ERA of 1.60 at home this season.
Let’s bypass the bullpens and look at the first half today. Neither team has a successful record vs. lefties and both pitchers tend to be strong early. Neither team has experience vs. the opposing pitcher.
While the total is low for the first half, I think it is a safe bet today. Take the under in the first 5 innings.
|09-16-21||Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5||12-1||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
Astros (Valdez, 10-5, 3.26) vs. Rangers (Otto, 0-1, 6.92)
The Astros are comfortably in first in their division, while the Rangers are firmly in the cellar. That said, the Rangers are not going with a whimper. At 7-3 in their last 10 games, it is the offense driving this recent success. The Astros (6-4) are always dominant in run production, sitting 2nd in the league at the moment.
The Rangers’ rookie, Glen Otto, was brought down to earth in his last start, allowing 8 runs in 3+ innings. Previously he had been sharp in his first two starts, including five innings of shutout pitching against the Astros.
Framber Valdez has been effective most of the season, but his last two starts have not been remarkable. After pitching strongly in August his ERA has ballooned to 6.55 in September.
As one might expect, the numbers favor the Astros, and they are a huge favorite today. The total is more promising. The Astros were shutout by Otto, and that must be an irritant for these high-flyers. Many rookies start with a flourish, then stumble, and that may be the case today. Valdez could bounce back, but he does give up runs early. The total for the first half is low considering these two offenses. Take the OVER in the first five innings.
|09-15-21||Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9||5-6||Loss||-107||8 h 38 m||Show|
Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.35) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)
What a find the Phillies have in Suarez! Since shifting from reliever/closer, he has been razor sharp. In his last three starts he has allowed 2 runs over 16+ innings. His opponent Alec Mills has been up and down in his last three games, dominating the Reds and White Sox while struggling against Pittsburgh. Looking closer, he is usually a safe bet in his first 5 innings.
The Phillies offense is not at its best and their bullpen is very poor of late. The Cubs struggle on the road and will not have much success vs. Suarez. I like the under today, but only in the first half. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under in the first five innings.
|09-14-21||Indians v. Twins UNDER 6.5||3-1||Win||105||9 h 12 m||Show|
Indians (McKenzie, 4-6, 4.44) vs Twins (Ryan, 1-1, 0.42)
The Twins used 6 relievers in their loss to the Yankees on Monday, and now face Cleveland in a double header. Rookie Joe Ryan threw 7 innings of shutout ball against the same Indians in his last start, which was only the second start in his career. Any relation to Nolan? Maybe he can give the Twins the innings they need on Tuesday..
The Indians had a day off to give their collective heads a shake and try and recover from their 2-8 bad dream. They also have a fine young right-hander pitching on Tuesday. Tristan McKenzie has been very sharp in his last three games, allowing 1 run each outing over 19 innings.
The Indians have the better bullpen, are faster, commit less errors, and are decent on the road. There is just one problem; they have the worst offense in the league of late. The Twins aren’t a powerhouse either and are only a modest home team. In the strange facts category, they are only 5-18 when playing on a Tuesday.
It appears neither team wants to win, so lets take the Total. Under 6.5 is available in this 7 inning start. Considering how these two youngsters have handled themselves and their ability to pitch some length, take the Indians and Twins to go UNDER in Game 1.
|09-13-21||Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8||7-0||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
Cardinals (Wainwright, 15-7, 2.98) vs. Mets (Hill, 6-6, 3.82)
The Mets and Cardinals are long-shots for a wild card spot, so this is still a significant series. Neither team has been able to break out of the .500 winning % range and make a run. It is Adam Wainwright vs Rich Hill on Monday. Wainwright has been one of the best in the league this season and shows no real signs of slowing down. He allowed 4 runs over 8+ innings in last outing which, for him, is a poor start. He is 6-1 with a 1.57 ERA over his last 7.
Rich Hill has been a bit of a surprise for the Mets, especially in September, with an ERA of 0.61 in 12 innings pitched over two starts. He has been very dependable and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 8 starts.
The Mets’ pen has been steady all year and even better in their last games. Where there has also been improvement is in run production, although less so against right-handers.
The Cardinals have been very soft at the plate, especially in the last three weeks. Their bullpen is usually average and has been slightly better last 7. They are effective vs. lefties.
It is a tough call on a winner in this game so I’m looking at the total. Both starters have been very effective and pitch for length. The total is not high considering the quality of the starters. Take the Cards and Mets to go Under.
|09-12-21||Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 9||1-2||Win||101||3 h 53 m||Show|
Red Sox (Pivetta, 9-7, 4.67) vs White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.59)
With a good lead in the AL Central, the White Sox are comfortable, but for Boston it is red alert in their hunt for a wild card spot in the very competitive AL East.
Both starters have missed a start; Pivetta with Covid issues, and Lynn with a long-standing knee inflammation. Pivetta has struggled in August at 1-3, and 5.27 ERA. Lynn is coming off his worst start, allowing 7 runs over 5 innings. It will be interesting to see how these two starters respond.
Both of these teams can hit. Boston in particular has been potent lately. Both teams are very strong against righties. Pivetta has given up 4 runs in five innings or less in his last three starts. With both starters’ layoffs, a little rust is to be expected. I am looking at the early total today. Take the Sox’ game to go under in the first five innings.
|09-11-21||Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8||4-6||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
Reds (Castillo, 7-15, 4.20) vs Cardinals (Mikolas, 0-2, 5.06)
The Reds padded their lead over the Cards yesterday, and will look to add on today. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds. Castillo has pitched better than his won/lost record would suggest, with solid starts of some length. He lost to the Cards a couple of starts ago but only gave up a pair of runs.
His opponent is Mike Mikolas. Mikolas has yet to find his groove after a very long stretch on the DL, giving up 11 runs in12+innings pitched. He did stretch out his last start to 5 innings.
The Cards bullpen has been solid but did stumble in the 9th yesterday. The Reds’ pen has been a stumbling block all season and has an ERA of 6.20 in their last 7 games.
The Reds have the superior offense in theory although they have under-achieved of late. The Cards, after a brief power surge,have been about normal, meaning low scoring, in the past week.
The Reds are a good road team, 50-38 as a favorite and solid against right-handers. Mikolas has yet to show signs of improvement. The wind is blowing out today. Take this game to GO OVER THE TOTAL.
|09-11-21||Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5||15-4||Loss||-107||5 h 36 m||Show|
Giants (Gausman, 13-5, 2.58) vs Cubs, Davies, 6-10, 5.16)
The Giants are on a tear, winning Friday 6-1 on a bullpen day. Eight pitchers combined for 1 run! Pretty well the only team as hot as them are their opponents today; the surprising Chicago Cubs. Why have the Cubs been winning? Bats and bullpen. They have been hitting above their weight for a few weeks and their relievers have been extremely effective in their last 7 games, with an ERA of 1.05. There is a caveat here; the pen has been averaging 4.9 innings a game of late which is unsustainable. Note that today the bullpen struggled and the offense was subpar. This is more typical of the Cubs this season. Zack Davies starts for the Cubs. It has been a poor season for Davies. He is 1-4, 6.70 since the All-star break, and has struggled at home. His starts have been very short lately, averaging about 4 innings. He can pitch effectively, but the poor starts are becoming more frequent.
Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants. He isn’t pitching for quite the same length nor is he quite as effective at 4-2, 4.56 ERA since the All-star break, but he is still one of the premier starters in baseball. He is very sharp on the road (7-2, 1.95 ERA).
The Giants bullpen has been consistent all year, and has a 2.23 ERA lately. The Giants have also ridden their pen hard to the tune of 4.62 innings per game, and with eight pitchers used on Friday it is concerning.The Giants have a solid offense but it is better than usual in the past couple of weeks. They are very good away, versus right-handers, you name it, they are good at it.
Let's look at the total. I don’t see the Cubs scoring a lot of runs vs. Gausman, and while Davies was roughed up for 6 runs last start, he gave up 2 and 1 in his previous outings. The total is very high at 10.5. Take the Giants and Cubs to go under, even considering the weather.
|09-10-21||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8||0-3||Win||100||15 h 43 m||Show|
Padres (Musgrove, 10-8, 2.87) vs Dodgers (Urias, 16-3, 3.11)
The Padres are now a long shot for any post-season activities other than golf. The Dodgers are still in the hunt for first in the NL West. It is hard to say who is the Dodgers’ ace but certainly their winning-est pitcher is on the hill on Friday. Urias has been an eye-opener this season and shows no sign of slowing down. He has a 5-0 record since the All-star break and hasn’t given up more than two runs in 8 starts. Urias’s starts aren’t the longest, but he has already pitched 150+ innings which is more than double than in any other year in his career. Urias is supported by by the Dodgers’ very fine pen, with a 1.69 ERA in the last 7 games.
Facing him is Joe Musgrove, no slouch as a starter himself. In three starts, he has given up only 3 runs in 20+ innings, including a full game shut out. San Diego’s normally good bullpen has not been as sharp of late, with an ERA of 4.30.
The Padres are 3-3 in their last 6 games. They are 24 -16 versus lefties, but only 30-34 on the road. The Dodgers are lights out as a home team, and 61-38 vs. right-handed starters. They have great starters, a terrific pen, so why aren’t they leading the NL West? Because their once potent offense has stumbled into the nether regions of MLB team batting stats in recent weeks. In fact both teams are struggling in average and run production..
Two quality starters and two underachieving lineups. As of now the total is set at 81/2, which seems high to me. Take the Padres and Dodgers to go under on Friday evening.
|09-09-21||Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||4-3||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
Rockies (Senzatela, 4.16, 4-9) vs. Phillies (Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)
The Rockies are going nowhere this year and at 3-7 in their last 10 games they are playing like it. The Phillies are still in the mix for a wild card spot but wins are now of the essence. Ranger Suarez has been a bright light since he switched to the starter’s role. He is now regularly pitching into the 6th inning and his ERA is super sharp at 1.38. He has only allowed 2 runs over 17 innings in 3 starts.
Senzatela has also been solid lately although his record and the team record will not show it. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.11 since the All-star break and one of the few bright spots in the Rockies lineup.
The Rockies road stats are astoundingly poor. They are 5 and 12 as a road underdog, and 18- 50 on the road. The Phillies are 39-28 at home, and 7-1 as a strong home favorite. They are very successful against right-handed pitchers.
The offensive stats for the two teams are remarkably similar from average to runs scored to slugging %. They are also both struggling, with the 20th and 21st best offenses in MLB this past week. I am going to bypass bullpens today and just look at the first half. Based on both teams’ poor run production, and a lack of experience and/or success with the pair of strong starters, I am looking for the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-09-21||Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5||6-0||Win||101||8 h 11 m||Show|
Royals (Hernandez, 5-1, 3.57) vs. Orioles (Means, 5-6, 3.47)
With little to play for but pride and salaries, KC is 3-7, and the Orioles, slightly better at 5-5. Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals. He has been a bright light this season, and now has 11 starts under his belt. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. His opponent John Means had a no hitter in May, and has been steady since return from the DL. He has allowed 7 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. The Orioles have not been kind to Means with a 7-14 record when he is on the mound.
The Orioles are woeful at home, and in the rare times they are a home favorite, equally bad. In the weird facts category, they appear to not enjoy playing on Thursdays, going 2-10. Their bullpen usually struggles but, last night aside, has been better lately. KC is poor on the road, but better vs lefties. They apparently don’t mind playing on Thursdays, with a record of 7-9!
Neither offense is particularly potent, and today’s starters are about the best these two teams can offer. Last night’s game featured a very high total but I don’t think that will be repeated today. The under has featured in both of these starters’ games, and that is what I expect today. Royals and Orioles to go under.
|09-08-21||White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5||1-5||Loss||-100||11 h 39 m||Show|
White Sox (Keuchel, 8-8, 5.21) vs. Athletics (Montas, 11-9, 3.68)
The Sox and A’s are back at it today as Keuchel faces Montas. Keuchel has been inconsistent at best with only a rare quality start. He won against the A’s in August but that was the exception. The A’s batters have had considerable success against him in the past. He was 1-3 in August with a miserable 7.43 ERA, and has been poor on the road. Facing him is Frankie Montas. With a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last 3 starts, Montas has been sharp lately, and pitches for length, something the A’s need desperately. Their bullpen has been overworked and pounded mercilessly in their last games.
The White Sox have scored a ton of runs lately, and the A’s offense has been pulling its weight. The A’s are very good against lefties, which is bad news for Keuchel. The White Sox are good against righties and have had some success against Montas.
I am looking at the total today. With the combination of Keuchel’s woes and the A’s inept bullpen plus both teams’ respective abilities vs. right and left, take the total to go over today.
|09-07-21||White Sox v. A's OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||10 h 60 m||Show|
White Sox (Lambert, 0-1,5.40) vs. A’s (Kaprielian, 7-4, 3.87)
Off a loss, and with an off day, the A’s need to change their feeble ways to keep any hopes of a wild card spot alive. Their fine rookie, James Kaprielian is on the mound, only he hasn’t been so fine lately. His ERA has regressed each month since the season opened. He has given up 11 runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. The home run ball (8 in his last 4 games) has hurt him badly, and his expected start length is only 4 to 5 inning.
The White Sox are having starting pitcher injury woes, which is likely why Triple A call up Jimmy Lambert is starting. He has given up 4 runs over 6 innings as a starter, so look for a very short outing today.
Both teams will likely rely on their bullpens to a greater extent today. This is OK for the White Sox and very bad news for the A’s. The Athletics’ pen has a monstrous ERA of 8.07 in their last 7 games.
As far as offense goes, The White Sox are one of the more potent teams in the MLB and the A’s are hitting above their weight lately.
I am looking at the total in this game. The White Sox have scored more than 10 runs in 4 of the last 9 games. The A’s have allowed 43 runs in their last five games! I had to check my math twice.. I am taking today’s game to go over the total.
|09-06-21||Phillies v. Brewers OVER 7||12-0||Win||100||3 h 57 m||Show|
Phillies (Wheeler, 11-9, 3.01) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-7, 2.35)
Here are two teams still in the hunt. The Phillies have been hot and send out their ace, Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler has been in the run for the Cy Young award and has pitched the most innings in the league, but he shows all of the signs of a tired pitcher in his last starts. He is 3-3 in August with an era of 4.81. It gets worse. He has given up 15 runs in the last 20+ innings. He has been less successful on the road.
Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers. Since a blip some starts ago, Woodruff has been very sharp, allowing only 1 run over 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He is excellent at home and in day games. The Phillies have had no success against Woodruff.
The Brewers are not a great home team, but they have dominated right-handed pitchers to the tune of 66-39. One issue today is that their usually sound bullpen has struggled mightily in their last 7 games. The Phillies offense has been potent in recent weeks, and are also successful against the right. Their bullpen has been much better with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 7 games.
These two teams haven’t faced each other since May when the Phillies swept the Brewers. I expect the Brewers are looking for a little payback this series. I like Woodruff in this game, but the Brewers’ relief tumble scares me off a bit. The under for the first five innings is low, and with Wheeler being very average of late, seems like a good bet. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-01-21||Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5||0-1||Loss||-110||5 h 6 m||Show|
Astros (Odorizzi: 6-6, 4.46) vs Mariners (Gilbert: 5-5, 5.44)
Houston was shut out last night. Kikuchi surprised me with an unexpected return to pre-allstar form. Rookie Logan Gilbert is pitching for the Mariners, and any surprises are far more unlikely. Gilbert has struggled mightily; in his last 3 starts he has given up 19 runs in 12+ innings. He has been poor at home, and was absolutely pummeled by the Astros just 10 days ago.
Odorrizzi starts for the Astros today. He is 3-2 in August and has allowed 7 runs in his last 15+
innings. He is not a good road starter and has struggled against the right.
The Astros have the edge in offense, and tend to prey upon struggling right-handers. Let us take the bullpens out of the equation, and wager on the first half. Take the Astros/ Mariners total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-01-21||Cardinals v. Reds OVER 7||5-4||Win||111||3 h 58 m||Show|
Cardinals (Mikolas: 0-1, 2.70) vs Reds (Miley: 11-4, 2.74)
The Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card spot, have lost 3 in a row, and it turns to Wade Miley to slap on a band-aid before things get out of hand. Miley has been terrific for the Reds, 3-0 in August, whilegiving up only 2 runs in his last three starts. He has a 7-2 record at home. His opponent today is Miles Mikolas, a recent returnee from a serious stretch on the DL. The early returns on Mikolas are very promising. He has given up 4 runs over 13+ innings in his first three starts. The Reds are one of the best hitting teams around, and to date, Mikolas has only faced the Pirates twice, so it might be a little early to jump on his bandwagon. In addition, the usually dependable Cards’ bullpen has not been as good. The Reds pen is always a sore spot on an otherwise strong team.
The total has gone under far more than average for these two teams, leading to an unnaturally low one today. The Reds bats will be hungry today. Take the first game of the Card/Reds doubleheader to go OVER.
|08-31-21||Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||7 h 27 m||Show|
Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02)
This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start.
These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under.
|08-28-21||Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||1-6||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
Red (Gutierrez) vs Marlins (Alcantara)
Saturday’s Reds/Marlins game features Vlad. Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara, two very good 25 year old starters. These two pitchers faced off in their last starts just a week ago, resulting in a very well-pitched 3-1 Reds win. Alcantara has been consistent and solid all season but it doesn’t ever seem to show in the win column. In his last three starts, he allowed 2 or less runs, delivered a total of 22 innings pitched and only won one of three. Largely this is caused by Miami’s soft offense. In yesterday’s column, I described them as the 98 lb. weakling of the MLB and they proved me right, losing to the Reds 6-0.
Rookie Gutierrez (9-4, 3.68) has been equally effective, but has had the run support. He is 5-1, with an ERA of 2.95 in his last seven starts. Gutierrez has the mighty Reds bats to support him, which is good because one can’t always count on Cincinnati’s relievers. The one negative aspect with the Reds is their bullpen. Luckily Gutierrez has delivered length as well as wins this season.
The total is set quite low, but I still think it is the right wager. Take Red/ Marlins to go under the total.
|08-28-21||Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5||5-3||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
Red Sox (Eovaldi) vs Indians (Quantrill)
Th Indians lost to The Red Sox last night but have played well lately. They have Cal Quantrill (4-1, 3.44) a good young right-handed pitcher on the mound on Saturday. He is 1-0 in his last 3 games but has given up only 5 runs in 18 innings. The only problem with Quantrill is the rest of the Indians. They have a team record of 6-10 with him as a starter.
Boston has Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.66) starting. He has also been very solid, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. Of note, Eovaldi is a much different animal on the road, with a 5.02 ERA.
Cleveland is not a team that will commonly out-hit anyone, particularly the Red Sox. They have a reliable bullpen who have been extra sharp (1.95 ERA) in their last 7 games. The Red Sox pen has not excelled of late.
Boston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have now been passed by the Yankees for 2nd in their division. They have had some very high totals in runs scored in the past while which might account for the high total today. Certainly these two starters and Cleveland’s bullpen don’t warrant it.
As you might have guessed, I am wagering on the total. Take Boston and Cleveland to go under.
|08-26-21||Royals v. Mariners OVER 8||6-4||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
Royals (Brad Keller) vs. Mariners (Kikuchi)
At 7-3 in their last 10 games, Seattle has closed the gap to one game behind the slumping A’s. KC, also 7-3, is playing for pride at this point but doing a pretty good job of it. Every series is critical for the Mariners, and they need today’s starter Kikuchi to return to his pre-Allstar form. He is off a very poor start, and has struggled with pitch effectiveness of late. He is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA in August, and has a poor home record this year.
Brad Keller (not to be confused with the other Keller I am wagering on today) is 8-12 this year with an ERA of 5.43. At 2-3 and an ERA of 3.43 in his last 7 games he has shown a marked improvement of late. He tends to pitch better on the road but struggles vs. RHB.
The Mariners favor a right handed pitcher and are a solid home team. KC struggles on the road, but is good vs left-handed pitching. The Royals’ relief corps have been especially sharp in their last 7 games, while The Mariner’s bullpen has struggled lately.
Today’s question is: is this the day that Kikuchi rights the ship? Second question: will Keller continue his winning ways? The total today is low. I am wagering that the answer to at least one of these questions is no. Take this game to go over the total.
|08-26-21||Yankees v. A's UNDER 8.5||7-6||Loss||-100||10 h 28 m||Show|
Yankees (Taillon) vs A’s (Kaprielian)
The Yankees are 10-0. The slumping Athletics have lost 9 of 12. Let us sidestep the issue of who wins, who loses, and look at the total. Kaprielian, Oakland’s starter has 2 of the A’s recent wins. He has allowed only 6 runs in his last 16 innings pitched. The Yankees, other than Gallo, have struggled when facing him.
Taillon, 4-0 in his last 7 starts, has a sparkling 1.99 ERA in that time. The A’s have not had much success against him. The Yankees pen has been in its usual fine form, however Oakland’s usually dependable relievers have struggled.
I like the TOTAL in the first 5 innings to go UNDER today.
|08-26-21||Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5||7-11||Loss||-104||10 h 34 m||Show|
Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Pirates (Keller)
The two starters on Thursday are both finding their way in the MLB, but for very different reasons. Keller was sent to the Minors after a very poor stretch early in the season. Mikolas has started only two games this season and also missed all of 2020 due to injury. In his first start back since May he threw for 5 innings giving up 0 runs on 2 hits. The same game was Mitch Keller’s best start of the season. He also threw for 5 innings and also gave up no runs. Keller’s stats are shaky, but since his return he has shown steady improvement.
The light-hitting Cards are a powerhouse when compared to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the lowest runs-scored output in the MLB. Their other stats are equally poor; they are 11-21 as a home underdog, and 36-52 vs the right. Their bullpen has been better than usual at a 3.49 ERA in their last 7 games.
The Cardinals, off a win against Detroit, are now 5-5 for the last ten games. Their bullpen has been terrific lately at 2.23 in their last 7 games. They have a good record as a road favorite, which admittedly does not happen all that often.
I’ll give Keller a little more credit than his stats would suggest. Watching the highlights of his last start Mikolas looked terrific, and could be a great addition to the Cards’ rotation. I am wagering on a total in this game. Take the TOTAL to go UNDER.
|08-25-21||Reds v. Brewers OVER 7.5||1-4||Loss||-120||13 h 56 m||Show|
Reds (Castillo) vs Brewers (Woodruff)
The Brewer are sitting comfortably in first in their division, but the Reds, 7 games back are still in the mix for a wild card spot. it is Castillo (7-12, 4.35)) vs Woodruff (7-7, 2.48) on the mound tonight. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through July and August. His thirdlast start was a reversion to the dark side, but he was sharp in his last two starts, going 14 innings and allowing only 4 runs. Woodruff (7-7, 2.49) is usually very dependable but something was up in his last two starts. He was removed after 3 innings for wildness two starts ago, then bombed in his last start, allowing a very uncharacteristic 6 runs in five innings. One bad outing? No big deal, but two poor outings can signify trouble.
The Reds have an enviable road record and have much the better offense. It is their bullpen that has the Reds’ Manger Bell tearing his hair out. Milwaukee’s offense is middle of the pack but their pen has been very reliable, including a collective ERA in the low twos in their last 7 games. They have an exceptional record against right-handed starters.
The total is very low for these teams, but considering Woodruff’s last two starts, the Reds’ potent bats, and the Brewers’ record vs right-handers, I am looking for more runs to be scored. Take the Total to go OVER in the first five innings.
|08-23-21||Royals v. Astros UNDER 9||7-1||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
KC Royals (Lynch) vs. Houston Astros (Greinke)
While a run for the playoffs is out of the question, the Royals are still playing like the season means something. They swept the Cubs and that was after taking 3 of 4 against the Astros in Houston. On Monday, 24 year old Daniel Lynch (3-3, 5.12) will take on the Astros for the second time in his short career. Lynch was miserable in his first call-up, but since returning in July, he has been a very effective starter. He is 3-1 since the all-star break with a 2.35 ERA. He held the Astros to 1 run over seven innings when he last faced them.
At 37 years of age, Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.49) is still in fine form. He is still pitching for length (6-7 innings per start), and has been terrific in August with a razor-sharp era of 1.89. Both teams are getting strong results from their bullpens, although Houston’s was well worked over in an 11 inning loss on Sunday. KC’s has been terrific with a collective ERA of 1.42 in their last 7 games.
As far as the offense goes, it is all Astros. They lead the Royals by almost 2 runs scored per game, and 25 points in batting average. They have a very good home record, but are not as successful against left handed pitchers. The Royals have not shown well on the road this season, and have not been effective vs righties.
The Astros are unlikely to take KC lightly this time around after their last series. They are a heavy favorite on Monday. I actually like the Royals’ chances in this game but am more confident in the total.
These are two very effective starters with good length to their outings and solid relief. The total seems high. I am wagering on the total to go under on Monday.
|08-22-21||Angels v. Indians UNDER 9||0-3||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
LA Angels (Suarez) vs. Cleveland Indians (Quantrill)
The Angels and Indians are very evenly matched teams at the moment, right down to the pair of young relievers turned starters on the mound on Sunday. Neither team is completely out of contention, but at 5-5 last 10 will need to get a move on if either teams wants to make a play for the post season. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill (3.24) has been very effective since making the move to starter. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.76 in his last seven starts and has stretched himself out to an average of 6 innings per outing. He hasn’t had much support but is backed by a solid pen that has been even better than average in their last 7 games.
Jose Suarez’ transition to starter has not been quite as easy. He is 2-5 with an ERA of 5.45 in his last seven games, and struggles facing left-handed batters. His starts are somewhat shorter at around 5 innings, but he will be supported by a recently improved pen.
After sweeping the Tigers, it looked like LA had some momentum, but they lost two straight vs Cleveland and have been limited to a total of 2 runs. Is this scoring drought to continue? Cleveland hasn’t the highest run output and with Quantrill on the mound, I believe the score will stay low. Take the Angels and Indians to go under the total.
|08-22-21||Marlins v. Reds UNDER 9||1-3||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Marlins (Alcantara) vs Reds (Gutierrez)
The light hitting and struggling Marlins have lost three in a row to the Reds and look to Sandy Alcantara for some return to good fortune. Considering Miami’s bullpen of late, Alcantara (7-11, 3.87) may need a complete game for a win on Saturday. Other than a terrible effort in Coors Field, Alcantara is capable of such a start. In his past two outings he has given up only 1 run in 15 innings total. His run support from the Marlins has been dismal.
His mound opponent is the other Vladi. Gutierrez (8-4,3.87) may not have the batting chops, but he has delivered as a starter. In 18 innings pitched over 3 starts, he has limited the opposition to 4 ER total. He can’t rely on the Reds’ bullpen, which as been pretty awful of late.
All of the offensive stats favor the Reds. Miami is low on average, slugging, and run production. They are 12-23 as a road dog, 21-42 on the road and have never face Gutierrez before.
I like the total to go under, and have been very sharp with them of late. The Marlins and the Red relief has been in tatters lately, so take the Under in the first five innings.
|08-20-21||White Sox v. Rays OVER 9||Top||7-5||Win||101||9 h 23 m||Show|
White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha)
The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise?
Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support.
These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching.
I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total.
|08-19-21||Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8||4-8||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
Milwaukee (Woodruff) vs st. Louis (Lester)
The Brewers meet the Cards for the second game of their series on Thursday. Off a loss, St Louis starts Jon Lester (9-10), 5.32). Lester is coming off a terrific start, pitching into the 6th and allowed only one run, but this has not been the norm. In his previous two outings, he gave up more runs than innings pitched. Woodruff, (7-6, 2.18) for the Brewers has been excellent all season, if a bit hard luck. He has given up 4 runs in his last three starts, but has suffered from a lack of run support.
Both starters are familiar to the opposing batters and have struggled to some extent. Milwaukee’s bull pen has not been as sharp as usual, while the Cardinals’, other that their closer, has been solid. Milwaukee has some impressive road stats, but St Louis is no pushover at home. Both teams have been successful of late.
I have great respect for Woodruff, but he was wild enough last start to have it cut short at 3 innings. I doubt that Lester has two dominating starts in a row in him. The total is low for Thursday’s game. Take the Total to go Over.
|08-19-21||Astros v. Royals OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||4 h 29 m||Show|
Astros (Garcia) vs Kansas City (Minor)
Off three straight losses and with the A’s just a couple of games back, Houston can no longer be comfortable. I am sure that losing the first two games to the lowly Royals was not in the plans. Luis Garcia (9-5, 3.32) starts for the Astros. It would be incorrect to say that he is struggling; after all he pitched 6 shut-out innings only 2 starts ago. Still, he is 3-2 with a 4.33 era in his last seven starts, and hasn’t shown as well on the road. He will be supported by a highly motivated, very potent offense and a sharp set of relievers.
Mike Minor (8-11, 5.35) starts for KC. He is 2-5 in his last seven, but can still deliver the innings; he has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings in his hast three starts.
The Astros are a far better hitting team and have had their way with Minor in the past. They are 14-9 as a home favorite. The Royals have done well as a road underdog and have never faced Garcia. Houston is a heavy favorite. It is hard to imagine the Astros losing three straight against the Royals, but it is the total that attracts me in this game. Neither starter has been especially sharp, and I can’t imagine the Astros’ big bats not making their presence known on Thursday. Take the total to go over.
|08-17-21||Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7||2-0||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
Milwaukee (Burns) vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)
The ‘old feller’ of the Cards starting rotation is on the hill and has he ever been grand. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27) shows no sign of slowing down; in fact he threw a 9 inning 2 hit shutout his last start. He has been remarkably consistent, terrific at home, and 5-1 in his last 7 starts. His opponent, Corbin Burns (7/4, 2.23) is hardly an old man, but has been pretty grand himself. At 4-0 and 2.06, he has been exceptional on the road, and 3-0 post all-star break.
Both teams are surging at 7-3 (Mil.) and 8-2 (Cards), and are off wins. The Brewers pen has struggled slightly, the Cards’ has been sharp, although these starters have a history of long starts. Milwaukee has the nod in offense, and has an exceptional road record.
The total is very low today, but if there was to be a game with a low score this is it. Take the Brewers and Cards to go under the total.
|08-16-21||Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5||4-5||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
Indians (Quantrill) vs. Twins (Jax)
The Indians and Twins open a series today with a pair of young and talented starters on the mound. Griffin Jax (2-1, 4.36 ERA) is in his fifth start of the season, but has pitched well enough that his traveling days back and forth to Triple A are likely over. In his brief career he has faced the White Sox twice and the Astros, and come out relatively unscathed. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs in 16 innings pitched. He has struggled against right-handed pitching.
Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.65 ERA) didn’t start a game until the end of May, but has pitched very well since. He is 3-0 in his last seven starts with a very impressive 1.71 ERA.
The Twins are playing well at the moment at 7-3, and have had effective relief pitching of late. The Indians, at 5-5 have been struggling, and their usually sharp pen has tanked lately. It is tough to call a winner in this game, but I am confident in the total. Both starters are now capable of longish starts, and the total has been consistently under in their appearances. I am looking for this game to continue the trend. Take the Under today.
|08-15-21||Astros v. Angels OVER 9||1-3||Loss||-115||4 h 17 m||Show|
Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Angels (Detmers)
This could be a mismatch. The Astros have Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound facing Reid Detmers in just his third start. Detmers struggled mightily in his first 2 starts, and has a 10.61 ERA in his brief career. I am sure he is a better pitcher than those stats would imply, but facing the formidable Astros lineup might be too much of a challenge today. McCullers is 9-3 with an ERA of 3.22. While he has a 7-0 away record, he has not been quite as sharp lately.
What has been sharp is the Astros’ bullpen (1.42 collective ERA), in large contrast to the Angels’ relief efforts (6.23 ERA last 7). The Astros have the most potent offense and the largest run differential in the MLB. They are 14-7 as a road favorite. The Angels, off a pair of losses to the Astros, can scores runs but pale in comparison to Houston.
Obviously Houston is a favorite; it is more a question of by how much they will win. Considering Detmer’s past results, the Angels’ poor bullpen and The Astro’s power, I am looking for this game to go over the Total.
|08-11-21||A's v. Indians UNDER 9||6-3||Push||0||9 h 25 m||Show|
Oakland A’s (Montas) vs Cleveland Indians (Quantrill)
After beating Cleveland in extra innings, Oakland has won 5 straight games straight. Today they face the Indians’ young starter Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.71), who has been an eye opener in his last 6 starts. In his last three starts, he has allowed only 1 run over 19 innings. It is a pity that the Indians haven’t taken more of an advantage of his fine stuff..
The A’s have Frankie Montas on the mound, who has also been strong. He is 2-1 in his last 7 starts with a 2.76 ERA. Montas has been averaging 6 innings per start with an absolute ton of strikeouts.
Both bullpens have been lights-out of late, with collective ERA’s of under 2.00. Oakland has been a very fine road team this year and are still in play for a wildcard spot. Is Cleveland out of contention? Not completely, so the motivation is still there to compete. They have been a decent home team this year.
I am taking a total here. Neither team is an offensive force, with two strong starters on the mound today and good relief available. Take the Total to go Under.
|08-10-21||Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 9||4-1||Loss||-120||11 h 52 m||Show|
Cards (Happ) vs Pirates (Brault)
The Pirates return home after a lamentable road trip, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. A day off and a home start might change things somewhat. They face J.A. Happ (5-6, 6.62) and the Cardinals on Tuesday. Happ pitched better than usual in his first start for his new team, but has not been generally successful this year. He is 2-3 with an era of 8.10 in his last 7 games, has been poor vs. both sides of the plate, and struggled on the road.
His opponent is lefty Steven Brault. Brault was an effective starter last year but was sidelined until recently. In his first start back was vs. Milwaukee, and he held them to 1 run and 3 hits over 4 innings. I would confidently bet on Brault and the Pirates, if it weren’t for Pittsburgh bullpen. It has been extremely poor, and with Brault likely on a leash, this gives the Cardinals plenty of time to get back in the game. The Card’s pen is one aspect of the team that has played well this season and has been good of late. I am wagering on the total on Monday. Look for the Cards/Pirates total to go over.
|08-07-21||Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5||2-1||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
Tigers (T. Alexander) vs Indians (Morgan)
These two teams played on Friday with Cleveland winning handily. On Saturday, two unheralded starters are on the mound. With ERAs of 4.77 and 6.75, one might say it wasn’t surprising. Looking closer, both starters have merit. Alexander for the Tigers (0-0, 4.77), a Starter/long reliever, has no record, but his team is 5-0 with him on the mound. His appearances are short bu he has pitched well in 4 of his 5 last starts. The Indians’ Eli Morgan at 23 is a bit more of the risk/reward type. He has bounced up and down from Triple A this year, but is likely here to stay, especially after his last outing against the Jays (6 innings, 2 ER, 9 strikeouts). It is worth checking out the highlights of that game; he was very impressive.
Both bullpens have been very sharp of late. This is no surprise with Cleveland, but Detroit’s relievers have been surprisingly dominant in their last seven games. The under has figured prominently in many of these teams’ results lately.
I am looking at a total today. Alexander has been efficient, and I think that Morgan is a young starter with lots of potential. With two solid pens to back them I am expecting the total to go under today.
|08-05-21||Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5||4-7||Win||102||8 h 49 m||Show|
Pittsburgh (Crowe) vs Reds (S. Gray)
The Pirates are struggling, with 7-3 record in their last ten games, a lamentable away record, and a bullpen that has been poor beyond belief in their last seven games. Looking at Wil Crowe’s stats, you wouldn’t think he gives them much of a chance to turn things around. In fact, since the all-star break, Crowe has pitched well (2-0, 3.24 ERA), and has some support from his mates with a team record of 7/8.
For the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray (3-6, 4.26) is on the mound. Gray struggled with rib strain resulting in in a post all-star break ERA of 9.00, however in his last game he threw 6 innings of 1 run ball.
Both starters are capable of a decent start. The issues in this game lie elsewhere. The Pirates are one of the lightest hitting teams in the MLB and give up some of the highest totals as well. 10.12: that is the ERA of the Pirates bullpen in their last seven games. The Reds are a good hitting team and have made some recent changes to their pen, but still struggle in relief. I am wagering that in spite of the best efforts of the two starters, the total today will go over
|08-05-21||Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5||1-8||Loss||-115||1 h 6 m||Show|
Boston (Perez) vs Detroit (Skubal)
Off a loss against the Red Sox yesterday, Detroit turns to Tariq Skubal for better success. Detroit has a decent home record and is 5-5 in their last ten games. Boston won last night, but are only 4 -6 last ten. Is this the start of the swoon that people have long forseen? Martin Perez(7-7, 4.56) starts for the Sox. He is 0-2 in his last three starts, giving up about a run an inning, and has a 7.71 ERA since the all-star break. Skubal has also struggled, is 1-2 (5.40 ERA) since the all-star break, and a victim of allowing too many dingers lately.
Both teams can score runs. Boston’s pen has been good and consistent all year long. The Tigers have struggled in relief but have significantly overachieved in their last seven games. This is probably not a stat that can be maintained.
With both starters not at peak form, two decent offenses, and the home run ball figuring prominently, I am looking at the total and wagering on the TOTAL to go OVER
|08-01-21||Reds v. Mets UNDER 9||7-1||Win||100||3 h 6 m||Show|
Cincinnati Reds (Gutierrez) vs. NY Mets (Stroman)
The Mets, first in their division, must be peering over their collective shoulders. Three games up on the Phillies/Braves, if they fall out of first they likely stand no chance of holding down a wild card spot with their record. Their opponent on Sunday, the Reds, can flex lots of offensive muscle but sport a 29th place bullpen. Both teams made changes at the deadline. The Reds added 3 relievers, the Mets, a starter and Javier Biaz, and now the question is: have they done enough?
The Mets came back to win on Saturday night, and turn it over to Marcus Stroman (7-9, 2.63) on Sunday. In his last three starts, he has given up 4 runs in 18 innings pitched, and still had to be satisfied with a 1 and 2 record. His mound opponent is Vladimir Gutierrez (5-3, 4.75). He was beaten by the Mets the last time he faced them. He has had effective starts but seems to throw in the rare poor one, and allows opposing batters a high batting average.
We will see if the new additions to the Red’s pen will rescue it, as with a collective ERA of 5.38, it needs improvement. The Mets’ bullpen has been sharp as usual, the positive part of the Mets’ mantra of ‘score few runs, allow fewer..”
I am wagering on a total here. Stroman usually goes late into the game, allows few runs, and gets even less support. Gutierrez has his moments. I believe he won’t stink out he joint on Sunday and there are hopes for improvement from the Reds in their late innings relief. Take the total to go UNDER.
|07-30-21||A's v. Angels UNDER 8.5||2-0||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
Oakland A’s (Bassit) vs LA Angels (Sandoval)
The last time these two teams met, the A’s, at home, took two of two against the Angels, holding them to 1 ER. Since then, the A’s have added two key pieces to help them down the stretch. The Angels can’t decide whether to play or fold, but Thursday’s result may help to clarify as the deadline approaches. With Seattle drawing closer to Oakland this series is critical for the A’s. As for LA, it is pretty clear that they are going nowhere this season.
It is Chris Bassit (10-3, 3.46) pitching for Oakland. The A’s are 14-7 with him on the mound. Bassit has given wins and innings this season, although his July ERA (5.40) might raise some eyebrows.
Sandoval is on the mound for the Angels. The leftie has a 2.93 ERA in July and has been sharp in his last three starts although his record does not reflect this. In those three games, he has pitched 7 or better innings, giving up seven runs.
Oakland has just added another piece to its bullpen, which was already very good. The pen has been razor sharp of late. The Angels‘ relief corp is very much a one trick pony, and has not been impressive in their last 7 games.
The A’s have owned the Angels this season and have everything to play for. The Angels? It is probably a low moment for them. I like both starters. Sandoval in particular has been impressive lately. I feel that the Total is the way to go in this game. Take the A’s and Angels to go under!
|07-27-21||Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8||8-6||Loss||-100||12 h 5 m||Show|
Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Mariners (Flexen)
Both teams had won their last three starts before meeting up last night. The Astros face a more difficult opponent today in Chris Flexen.
Flexen has been nothing short of remarkable this season. He is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.35. The Mariners are 13- 5 with him pitching. You want more? How about 4-1, 1.60 last seven starts, or 20 innings pitched last three starts, allowing only three runs.
McCullers Jr is also having a fine season, but struggled somewhat last outing. He is 4-1 in his last 7 starts and 5-0 in away games this season.
The Astros pen has been good of late but have one surprising stat; they are 6-11 in W/L on the road. Mariners’ pen has been lights out of late, good at home, and looking at a similar stat, is 18-5 in win/loss at home for the season.
Of note: Astros are a very good road team, but their offense is down slightly lately. Mariners are a good road team, and their offense is up in their last games.
I am wagering that this game will go UNDER. 81/2 is a pretty high total for these starters. Both starters are likely to go long, and with strong relief corps at the moment, I see them stymieing the offense.
|07-26-21||Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5||2-0||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
Braves (Muller) vs Mets (Stroman).
The Mets took 2 of 3 against the Jays, gaining a little ground between them and the Braves and Phillies.
Marcus Stroman (7-8, 2.59) is on the hill for the Mets this afternoon. Stroman pitched an absolute gem last outing, going 8 innings and allowing only 1 hit. He appears to be completely recovered from his hip soreness that bothered him some starts ago. He also had some run support, so just maybe his W/L record will start to reflect his abilities.
The pitcher for the Braves is 23 year old Kyle Muller (1-3, ERA of 2.41 as a starter). Muller has bounced around from farm to major leagues with some frequency, but in between travels has amassed some decent stats. His issue appears to be control. He hasn’t allowed many runs, but does run up his pitch count very quickly.
The Mets are a light hitting team, the Braves have some oomph. Stroman’s record is solid vs. the Braves. The Mets have never faced Muller. The total reflects that this is the opening game of a double header.
I am wagering that the total goes under. Both bullpens have been much better than average of late. Stroman might finish for himself if he pitches like his last game. And just a side note, but Man, was Mets’ closer Diaz impressive against the Jays yesterday.
|07-25-21||Blue Jays v. Mets OVER 9||4-5||Push||0||3 h 39 m||Show|
After losing Friday night, the Jays brought out the big bats on Saturday and even an indifferent outing by their ace Riyu couldn’t stop them from a lopsided win. Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. It might be expecting a lot from Hill, who was just traded Saturday, to run it out against the Jays the next day, but being traded is nothing new to Hill. In his long career, he has pitched for 11 different teams. He has had a solid season going 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA. July has been so-so for him after a terrific May. His ERA is 4.97 for the month, and his starts have averaged between 3-5 innings. The Jays are familiar with Hill and have had some success against him.
Ross Stripling is pitching for the Jays today. Stripling started the year very poorly, then made some alterations to his delivery and was quite successful mid season. Of late the bad is busting through the good. He was absolutely shelled in the first inning against the Red Sox and for the month he is 0-2 and 10.24. His start length has declined, which is an issue as the Jays’ weakness is still relief. The Mets’ weakness generally hasn’t been in their relievers, but last night Guerrero and Co. knocked them around.
The Toronto’s offense really is formidable, and with the addition of Semien and Springer, much more
experienced. The Mets are a light hitting team but they may get their chances against Striping and the Jays’ pen.
My wager? Take the total to go over.
|07-17-21||Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5||4-9||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Cobb)
After a stellar outing last night by the Seattle starter, the Angels are out of the pitching frying pan with Flexen, and into the fire with Kikuchi. Perhaps Yusei Kikuchi, who stumbled a little last start, will take his missed All-star participation out on the Angels. He is 6-3, 2.77 ERA in his last 12 starts.
Facing him is Alex Cobb. Cobb had a terrific start last outing but his June stats were poor; his ERA was 7.32 over three starts. The Mariners have a good history with Cobb. The Angels have been only fair vs Kikuchi.
Last night’s blown lead aside, the Mariners relief core has been effective, however as a team, they do lack the offensive fire-power of the Angels. Ohtani and the Angels’ lineup have been absolutely on fire over the last two weeks.
Seattle burned their two top relievers last night. Kikuchi is only a ‘five or six innings per outing’ starter, which gives the Angels an opportunity to feast on the rest of the pen. Cobb is just one start away from a very poor stretch. Take the total to go OVER.
|07-10-21||Pirates v. Mets UNDER 6||6-2||Loss||-115||6 h 28 m||Show|
Pirates(Anderson) vs. Mets (Stroman)
The Pirates have returned to their losing ways. After taking two of three vs the Braves, they have now lost two straight. They will look to Ian Anderson in the first game of the double-header to halt this skid before it becomes a habit again. Anderson has pitched much better than his record of 4-8. In his last three games, he has averaged at least 6 innings pitched, and given up 5 earned runs total. As this is only a 7 inning game, this will give the woeful Pirates relievers less time on the firing line.
Marcus Stroman has had a rough few games. He had shortened outings due to hip soreness and then went on bereavement leave. His last start was not his best, but, Hallelujah, he finally had some run support from the Mets batters.
These are two relatively light hitting teams with two strong starters. In the first game of the double header I am betting on the total to go UNDER.
|07-09-21||Yankees v. Astros OVER 9||Top||4-0||Loss||-117||10 h 58 m||Show|
The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven.
My wager? Take the OVER
|07-07-21||Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5||10-2||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
Toronto Blue Jays (Riu) vs Baltimore Orioles (Harvey)
Its game two in the’ Battle of the Birds’, and Orioles flew away with the first one. The Jays are fighting to challenge for the lead in the formidable American East and need to win this series against Baltimore. Their offense is healthy and dominant; they know they can’t rely on an injury-riddled and struggling pitching staff.
What has come over Hyun Jin Riu? Riu, the master of the slow stuff and team ace, is struggling. His last start (4 runs over 4 innings) was his worst of the season, but his outings have been shorter and less effective than at the start of the season.
One could ask the same of Harvey, but for different reasons. Sporting an abysmal ERA of 7.34 and 3/9, he appears to have turned it around in his last few starts. He face the Jays twice in their last series, pitched ten innings over 2 starts and allowed only 7 earned runs.
Of note: The Jays have a 5-2 record against Baltimore, and they play better on the road than in whichever park they are calling home. They have in past teed off on Harvey.
With probable short outings from the two starters, suspect relief and the Jays’ tough hitting lineup, I am betting on the OVER
|07-03-21||Marlins v. Braves UNDER 9||3-2||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
Marlins (Alcantara) vs Braves (Muller)
The Marlins were in tough last night but lost in a close one, 1-0. With Acuna getting plunked in the first inning, there may be a little extra on the field between these two teams. The Braves have won three straight and in a variety of ways; 20 runs scored against the Mets and last night’s 1-0 shut-out.
The game sports an interesting pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara starts for the Marlins. He was 2-3 in June, with a 1.02 WHIP. He struggled with his control in his last start, but in his four previous outings, gave up only 4 ER and 1 HR. Alcantara can pitch well into his games, averaging 7 innings per start. He will need to on Sunday, as the Marlins have run out 6 relievers in each of their last two games.
23 year old Kyle Muller will pitch his third major league start for the Braves. He is a very tall left-hander with dominating stuff. In his previous 2 starts, he has gone 9 innings total, and allowed 1 ER. Control had been an issue in the minors, and Muller has issued a pair of walks in each of his starts.
Both bullpens had a workout last night, and both pitched well. This is not uncharacteristic of Atlanta’s pen and may be a factor on Sunday, considering Muller’s past starts have been only 4 and 5 innings long.
The Braves can hit a ton of homeruns, but please note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games.
I am riding the total to go UNDER.
|07-03-21||Mets v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||8-3||Loss||-100||4 h 34 m||Show|
Mets (Taijuan Walker) vs Yankees (Jordan Montgomery)
The Mets, reeling from a 20 run drubbing in Atlanta and a rare DeGrom loss two nights ago, turn to their other ace to restore a bit of equilibrium. Walker (3-2, 2.58, 1.04/ last 7) was a fine pick-up for the Mets this year. He is dependable for innings pitched and earned runs allowed. The Mets are 11-3 with Walker on the mound.
Facing him is Jordan Montgomery who is 2-1 in his last three starts. Montgomery has pitched well against the Mets and has consistently pitching into the 6th inning. Why is this important? Both the Mets and Yankees bullpens have struggled in their last 7 starts. Even Aroldis Chapman was lit up for 4 ER and 3 walks in 1/3 of an inning.
The Yankees are slumping, the Mets haven’s scored more than 4 runs in seven games, the Yanks struggle against a lefty. I say, bet on the UNDER.
|07-02-21||Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7.5||7-2||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
Brewers (Houser) vs Pirates (Brubaker)
Pity the Pirates. Light-hitting defines them. Even at Coors Field, they were shut out 2 of 3 in their last series. The same cannot be said for the Brewers of late. The winners of 9 straight, they have a pair of 14+ runs-scored games in their last 4 starts.
Facing the red-hot Brew crew is Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker. He has been 0-3 in June but has had almost no run support (4 Pirates runs in three starts). He is good for 5 or 6 innings, and has been adequate over his last three starts.
It is tough to find an upside to the Pirates offense, but they did have some success against Brewers’ starter Adrian Houser last time they met. His effectiveness has slid from some early season success. In his last three starts he has given up 11 ER in 16+ total innings. He has three no-decisions in those three starts. Of note, Milwaukee has gone on to win all three of those games.
The Brewers bullpen has been very strong last seven games and are well-rested. The Pirates’ pen has been adequate but ridden hard in their last few games.
Considering the Brewers’ offense, the Pirates’ well worked bullpen and Pittsburgh’s modest success against Hauser, I’m betting the total to go OVER
|07-01-21||Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9.5||6-2||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
LA Dodgers (Gonsolin) vs Nationals Corbin)
Winners of their last five games, the Dodgers open a four game road series against the Nationals. LA hasn’t scored a lot of runs of late, but have had excellent starting pitching and lights-out relief. Washington delivered a 15-6 thumping of the Rays on Wednesday, taking both games of a short series. They are a formidable 8-2 /last 10.
Tony Gonsolin is pitching for the Dodgers. Since returning from the 60 day DL, Gonsolin has been on a short leash, pitching less than 4 innings per start. While he is 0-0 for the season, he has an ERA of 2.77 and the Dodgers have won all four of his starts.
Patrick Corbin is on the hill for the Nationals. Corbin has had a mixed season at 5-6 with a 4.57 ERA.
He has had one very good start of his last three, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in his last 4 starts.
He has struggled with the long ball this season.
Neither team has had much experience against the other. Corbin has done well vs the Dodgers. The Nationals have never faced Gonsolin.
Bet on the total to go under.
|06-20-21||A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5||1-2||Loss||-110||3 h 30 m||Show|
The A’s lost on Saturday for the first time in nine games. Today it is Manaea vs Montgomery on the hill. Montgomery is 3 -1 with an era of 4.20 for the season, but NY has a habit of winning when he is on the mound. Montgomery doesn’t often pitch late into the game.
Manaea in his last four games has only given up two earned runs, however Oakland’s bullpen has been so-so of late.
Oakland has been scoring runs in bunches while sweeping KC and the Angels, and the total has edged up. Yankees have been beating up on struggling bullpens.
With Montgomery on the hill, the A’s potent offense, and Oakland’s bullpen, look for the total to go over.
|06-14-21||Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 10||Top||1-2||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work.
The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under.
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox.
|06-05-21||Mets v. Padres OVER 5.5||Top||4-0||Loss||-120||12 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: This can still be a pitchers duel and go "over" this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. It's impossible to say anything negative about either Jacob deGrom of the Mets or Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Each has been damn near perfect. Regression is likely to come, but not anything terrible. All of that said, this play is based entirely on some very strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot.
The pick: As note that the Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent, while San Diego has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing while scoring two or less runs in the process. Look for this one to sneak over in the latter frames.
This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mets/Padres.
|06-02-21||Marlins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8||Top||5-6||Loss||-100||10 h 38 m||Show|
The setup: If you aren’t yet on the Manoah bandwagon, check this game out. After a brief stint in Minors, Manoah forced his way into the Jays’ beleaguered rotation with three strong starts in Triple A. His first major league game was versus the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Nerves? Not a chance. Nervy, more likely. Manoah delivered 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs and 7 strikeouts, and baffled the Yanks from start to finish.
Pitching for the Marlins is Pedro Lopez, no slouch either. An unlucky 1- 3 this season, with an ERA of 2.71, Lopez in his last three starts has delivered 19 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, and 16 strikeouts. The Marlins’ bullpen is much improved over last year, and the total has gone under 3 of the last 4 of Marlins games.
The pick: The Jays have never faced Lopez, and while they have the potential of formidable offense in 2021, they are still a very young team. They have a tendency to struggle the first time against an unfamiliar pitcher. This total is indeed high in my opinion.
This is a 10* IL TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Marlins/Jays.
|05-31-21||Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5||Top||1-11||Win||100||5 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has been decent this year, but I believe these hungry line-ups will garner the most headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez (2-0, 2.95 ERA) who went six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. It was easily his best start of the year. After a couple of shaky campaigns, Velasquez looks to finally have found his groove again. Hard to say anything negative about him at this point, I just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time essentially.
The pick: Wade Miley (4-4, 3.50) gets the nod for the home side and he returns from a short stint on the IL with a sprained foot. He'll be on a bit of leash here in this outing. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in all "day games" this season. This one has "over" written all over it.
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Phillies/Reds.
|05-24-21||Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5||Top||14-8||Loss||-101||3 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Two of three games in this four-game series have gone "over" the number, but I think this afernoon's get-a-way total is just a little too high now. Two starting pitchers who will be hungry to get their season's back on track go head-to-head here. The visitors go with Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA) who gave up six runs (three earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Yabrough has been much better on the road (2-1, 3.93) than at home this year (0-2, 4.71).
The pick: Ross Stripling is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he's struggled, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded six or more runs in. Look for this one to sneak "under."
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Rays/Jays.
|05-16-21||Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 7||Top||3-5||Loss||-107||12 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but a couple of red hot starters collide in the third game, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) gae up one run and struck out six over six innings in unfortunate no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Over 20 innings of work he's allowed just four runs.
The pick: Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81) has been superb whenever the Padres have needed him. Dinelson Lamet is set to come in if Weathers falters as well. Finally, note that the Padres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is high.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Cardinals/Padres.
|05-14-21||Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 10||Top||5-1||Loss||-112||11 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here.
The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays.
|05-13-21||Giants v. Pirates OVER 8||Top||3-1||Loss||-106||27 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: The Giants have won four of their last five, which includes two in a row here at home over the Rangers most recently. Both of those contests were low-scoring, but everything points to more of a "slug-fest" here today. Anthony DeSclafani has been sharp for the Giants overall, but he's coming off a poor start, allowing three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Note, while 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he's 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road.
The pick: Wil Crowe gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. The rookie is 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA, but the sample size here is just way too small. Certainly he draws a tough opponent in the Giants, who have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 road games after playing to back-to-back home "unders." This number is low, the play is the over.
This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Giants/Pirates.
|05-07-21||Phillies v. Braves OVER 8||Top||12-2||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one. Philadelphia has won four straight, most recently sweeping the Brewers at home. Atlanta has won three straight, most recently sweeping the Nationals at home. Both teams got out to poor starts and neither can afford to take the foot off the gas any time soon. With each side finally starting to play better, expect these trends to carry over here and for that to then translate into offensive production on the field.
The pick: Zach Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.49 ERA, while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA for the Braves. Neither has been overly spectacular. Neither team has received very good bullpen play thie year either. It all adds up to a high-scoring "slug-fest" in my opinion.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves.
|05-06-21||Braves v. Nationals OVER 9||Top||3-2||Loss||-114||9 h 60 m||Show|
The set-up: A couple of suspect starting pitchers go head-to-head in this one and they face a couple of team's desperate to start stringing wins together. When you add those two factors up, invariably you get a higher-scoring game. Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), will likely eventually start getting his season turned around, but so far he's been a disaster, most recently allowing six runs off seven hits, including three home runs in a 13-5 loss to the Jays.
The pick: Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00), was good in his season debut for his new team, going five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Fish on Friday. Last year the veteran had a 5.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, so regression is imminent in opinion. Look for these starting pitchers to get the hook early and look for that to help in driving this total "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Braves/Nationals.
|05-05-21||Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9||Top||3-6||Push||0||12 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: The Yanks have won four in a row now, most recently a 7-3 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the Astros. While that total went "over," I expect Wednesday's game to be more of a "duel." Houston turns to Luis Garcia, who won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the season 0-3. He most recently comes in off a hard-luck loss vs. the Mariners, giving up one run over five innings, striking out six and giving up zero walks. He has a 2.70 ERA and a 20/7 K/W over 20 innings of work.
The pick: The Yanks counter with Jordan Montgomery, who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and who comes in off a good start vs. the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings. Montgomery sports a sharp 24/8 K/W. Look for these two competent starting pitchers to battle deep, and for this one to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Astros/Yankees.
|05-01-21||Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5||Top||3-2||Win||104||9 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: After the Reds' high-scoring 8-6 win yesterday, I'm expecting more of a "duel" on Saturday. Both teams have now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note that the Cubs have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in.
The pick: Are Luis Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) and Zach Davies (1-2, 9.47) really as horrible as their numbers would indicate? I'd say, absolutely not. Clearly both have significant issues early, but Castillo is 4-3 with a 3.86 ER in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Davies came over in the Yu Darvish trade and he's struggled in the early going, but I expect a much better effort here. Look for these two very hungry starters to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries.
This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cubs/Reds.
|04-25-21||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||Top||8-7||Loss||-118||12 h 4 m||Show|
The set-up: The last two games of this series have flown "over" the number, including yesterday's 5-4 win for the Dodgers. All signs point to the Sunday finale being a "duel" though in my opinion. These teams have strong bullpens and they both send strong starting pitchers to the hill. San Diego turns to Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA), while the home side counters with Dustin May (1-1, 2.93.) These two are in top form and there's no reason not to believe they won't continue that trend here.
The pick: San Diego has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 14 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded five or more runs in. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers.
|04-23-21||Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7||Top||6-1||Push||0||15 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in last night's 3-2 Padres win, and obviously that came up short. San Diego has now seen the total go "under" in six straight, while LA has seen the total go "under" in five in a row. Darvish and Kershaw have somehow defied the odds and remained relevant as starting pitchers and while each has been good in the early going (Kershaw is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA, while Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.55), strong O/U trends point for this game as being a "slug-fest," rather than a "duel."
The pick: San Diego has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six home games in trying to revnege a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for this one to comfortably eclispe the number in the latter innings.
This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Padres/Dodgers.
|04-22-21||Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||Top||3-2||Loss||-120||15 h 38 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams are loaded with offensive talent, but each has played to several "unders" in a row. San Diego has seen the total go "under" in five straight. It also comes in off three straight loss at home to Milwaukee. Clearly the Friars are going to be out to atone for that poor series showing, totaling just three runs vs. the Brewers. The Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in four strraight, most recently holding on for a 1-0 win at Seattle.
The pick: Buehler and Weathers are a "wash" here. I base a lot of my MLB picks on the starting pitching and I don't have anything at all negative to say about either of these starters, as I simply feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. As note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent scoreless, while scoring two or less runs itself in the process. Look for this one to fly well "over" in the latter frames.
This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Padres/Dodgers.
|04-20-21||Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5||Top||10-7||Win||103||12 h 45 m||Show|
The set-up: The Phillies go with Zack Wheeler, who is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Most recently he allowed three runs over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Mets. Wheeler's been decent in the early going, and he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA vs. the Giants. Philly though has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent (fell 2-0 in the series opener yesterday.)
The pick: Logan Webb gets the nod for the visitors despite having some COVID related issues of late. He's 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Note that San Fran has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after holding its opponent scoreless on the road in its previous outing. I'm banking on these hungry line-ups being the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Giants/Phillies.
|04-17-21||Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
The set-up: The Reds smashed the Indians 10-3 on Friday night, but I'm expecting a more defensive, lower-scoring "duel" here on Saturday afternoon. The Indians rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. Triston McKenzie gets the nod here for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 4.70 ERA. This is his third appearance of the season and he's been solid thus far.
The pick: Sonny Gray makes his season debut for Cincinnati. Last year he was 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Before last night's big offensive explosion though, the Reds' bats had cooled off considerably. I think this interleague affair on Saturday afternoon will be highlighted by solid starting pitching.
This is a 10* TOTAL CHAOS on the UNDER Indians/Reds.
|04-15-21||Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 8.5||Top||11-6||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: Two teams that got out to poor starts, but which have looked a bit better of late collide in the Nation's capital in the opener of this three-game series. Each team sends a pitcher to the hill that struggled in his opening start, and I expect that trend to carry over here and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.
The pick: Merrill Kelly is 0-2 for the D-Backs. In his most recent loss he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over six innings vs. the Rockies. His counterpart Patrick Corbin is 0-1 after allowing six runs off six hits with three walks over four innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Look for these two still volatile starting pitchers to get the hook early and for these suspect pens to collapse late. This number is low, the play is the "over."
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER D-Backs/Nationals.
|04-13-21||Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5||Top||4-2||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
The set-up: Whether it's JA Happ or Nathan Eovaldi pitching for Boston, or Martin Perez or Kenta Maeda going for the Twins, I believe the conditions of this particular contest will help in making it a very lower-scoring pitchers duel. Yesterday's game was postponed at the last minute due to the civil unrest in Minnesota and I believe this distraction will effect these team's chemistry at the plate.
The pick: Weather could be a major factor here as well. The postponements are working in favor of these starting pitchers in my opinion. Too many off-field distractions for these players leads to a lower-scoring "under."
This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Red Sox/Twins.
|04-11-21||Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9||Top||7-6||Loss||-104||12 h 8 m||Show|
The set-up: I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between Matt Moore and Drew Smyly. Moore earned a no-decision in his first start of hte year vs. the Mets, allowing two runs over 3.1 innings. Smyly allowed four runs (just two earned though), over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. It was a solid debut for Smyly.
The pick: Neither starter instills a ton of confidence, but the overall situation points to a lower-scoring duel here in my opinion. Further note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after scoring five or more runs in a one run victory in its last outing. This number is a little high.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Phillies/Braves.
|04-10-21||Padres v. Rangers OVER 9||Top||7-4||Win||102||13 h 43 m||Show|
The set-up: San Diego has seen the total go "under" in six straight, but I expect that lop-sided trend to end here today. The Padres have plenty of key injuries, but they remain competitive. Texas is 3-3 and it'll be eager to bounce back after its 3-0 defeat in the opener of this series. Chris Paddack gets the start for the visitors after allowing three runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona last Sunday.
The pick: Jordan Lyles gets the nod for the home side, he's 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA so far. The Rangers have been good at the plate as well, averaging .262 as a team, which ranks sixth in MLB. I don't trust either starter and these line-ups are primed to take advantage. Look for this one to fly "over" in the latter frames.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Padres/Rangers.
|04-10-21||Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5||0-4||Win||100||7 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: After yesterday's offensive explosion in the Rays 10-5 victory, I think we'll have more of a pitchers duel on our hands on Saturday afternoon. Including the playoffs, the Rays have beaten the Yankees in 12 of the last 16 games since the start of the 2020 season. Chris Archer will look to extend that streak against the "Evil Empire," a club that he's gone a highly respectable 6-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 18 career starts against.
The pick: The Yanks turn to Domingo German, who looks to rebound off a poor season opening start. He's 3-0 with a 5.73 ERA vs. the Rays in six appearances. The Rays have been trending "over" to start the season and the Yankees have been trending "under." After yesterday's game blew well past, look for this one to go the other way on Saturday afternoon.
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Yanks/Rays.
|10-17-20||Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8||Top||1-3||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Game 1 of this series is the only contest that has gone "under" the number. After playing to four straight "overs," though, I think this Game 6 sets up as more of a "duel." We have the Game 1 starting pitchers squaring off here and that's significant. Max Fried has a 2.65 ERA and 18 K's over 17 playoff innings of work so far, while Walker Buehler has gone 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 48 career playoff innings for the Dodgers.
The pick: Note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after allowing seven or more runs in a three runs or greater loss in its previous outing, while the Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to four or more consecutive "overs." This number is a little high.
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Braves/Dodgers.
|10-16-20||Astros v. Rays OVER 8||Top||7-4||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: While the first five games of this series have gone "under" the number, I think that Game 6 is going to fly over the total sooner, rather than later. Both teams have struggled at the plate and each of these starters has been sharp so far in the playoffs. It would be "easy" to write a convincing argument for another "under," but the value has now swung the other way.
The pick: As note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to four or more straight "unders," while also coming off a victory in its previous outing, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 21 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect these offenses to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries.
This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Astros/Rays.
|10-14-20||Rays v. Astros OVER 8||Top||3-4||Loss||-101||14 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: The first three games of this series have fallen "under" the number, but all signs point to Game 4 going "over." The Astros have their backs against the wall, but I don't expect them to go down quietly in this series. The Rays are still averaging 4.2 RPG and hitting 1.9 home runs per contest in the playoffs. And that's bad news for Astros' veteran starter Zack Greinke, who is a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 18 playoff starts. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 for the Rays in the playoffs, despite a 4.05 ERA.
The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more losses in a row. Expect these two talented offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.
This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Astros.
|10-12-20||Astros v. Rays OVER 8||2-4||Loss||-100||9 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: I had a play on the Rays in Game 1. I liked Tampa because Snell was a lefty and Houston's hard-hitting red hot line-up is primarily right-handed. Charlie Morton though is a right-hander and he's been terrible against the Astros throughout his career, going just 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts against them.
The pick: Lance McCullers is a decent 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa, but he allowed eight hits and five runs, including three dingers, in his lone playoff start vs. the A's last week. Game 1 saw these teams combine to go 3 of 16 with runners in scoring position in Game 1. Look for these suspect starters to get the hook early and expect this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later.
This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Astros/Rays.
|10-06-20||Astros v. A's UNDER 9||Top||5-2||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
The set-up: After yesterday's 10-5 win for the Astros, I expect much more of a duel here in Game 2. Framber Valdez (3-5, 3.57 ERA) gave up only lfive home runs over 70 2/3's innings of work in the regular season. He came in on relief of Zack Greinke during his team's 4-1 win over the Twins and delivered five scoreless frames.
The pick: Sean Manaea comes in fresh for the A's, as he did not throw in the series win over the White Sox. Manaea only allowed seven home runs over 54 innings of work, while striking out 45 this year. Note as well that the A's have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Athletics.
|10-05-20||Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5||Top||9-3||Win||105||36 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are two of the top pitchers in the entire league. Each comes in off a decent season and both have performed well over their last five games. Despite that though, I think that these two powerful and hungry line-ups will combine to push this total over this low number once it's all said and done. The Rays dominated the regular season series 8-2, but that just adds big incentive for this now healthy Yankees slugging line-up to get revenge. In my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" from a situational stand point.
The pick: It also sets up great from an O/U ATS/stats stand-point as well, as note that New York has seen the total go "over" in six of its last seven on the road, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 when playing with two or more days of rest. Expect this one to blast past the total in the middle frames!
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Yanks/Rays.
|10-05-20||Astros v. A's UNDER 8||10-5||Loss||-100||9 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Lance McCullers (3-3, 3.93 ERA) has plenty of postseason experience, so he'll clearly be eager to prove himself here in a confident manner. Note, he also benefits from having not thrown since September 26th.
The pick: The A's Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29) dominated in the wild-card, allowing one run over seven innings. Bassitt was 1-1 vs. the Astros this year as well, posting a 2.65 ERA in the process. Oakland's bullpen was No. 1 in the majors during the regular season and Houston's pen did not give up a single run in the series win over Minnesota. Expect a classic "duel" in Game 1.
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Astros/A's.
|10-01-20||Reds v. Braves OVER 7.5||0-5||Loss||-107||5 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: The Braves managed a 1-0 in 13 innings. This series features some sharp starting pitching, but I think that these talented line-ups will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Ian Anderson (3-1, 1.95 ERA) has made only six starts since being promoted mid-season. The sample size is just too small to draw any real conclusions though and I think he'll struggle in this pressure-packed Playoff situation.
The pick: Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.21) was good for the Reds overall this season and I expect his offense to pick him up here. Cincinnati had 11 hits and left 13 runners on base yesterday and I definitely don't expect that to happen again. Note as well that the Reds have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after getting blanked in a loss in their previous outing and allowing one or less runs in the process. This one has "over" written all over it.
This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Reds/Braves.
|09-22-20||A's v. Dodgers UNDER 9||Top||2-7||Push||0||14 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: The Dodgers enter this series with the best record in baseball at 38-16. LA has already clinched a playoff spot and so too has San Diego, which sits right behind it at 34-20. The Dodgers still haven't clinched the division though. Oakland has also clinched a playoff spot but it still hasn't earned the AL West crown yet at 33-20. Houston is at 27-26, so it's just a matter of time now before the A's earn that spot. But turning to this interesting interleague matchup...we have Frankie Montas of the A's going up against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Montas is just 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA, who returns from a stint on the paternity list. Montas has lost four straight and he draws a tough matchup here, but he has the track record and pedigree to bounce back. He was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA last season and he has this game and one more to get back on track before the playoffs start. May is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA and he most recently worked five innings of relief in a 7-5 win over the Padres on Wednesday. May has an even better 2.57 ERA at home and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that he can't carry over his recent form into this one as well.
The pick: Instead of a slug-fest in the opener of this series, I think the stage is set for a pitchers duel. Expect these division leaders to battle to a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER A's/Dodgers.
|09-16-20||Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||Top||2-13||Loss||-100||11 h 16 m||Show|
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in yesterday's 20-6 victory for the Yanks. In these team's previous series vs. each other in Buffalo two of three went "under" the number and I expect that after yesterday's big explosion, that we're going to see much more of a "duel" on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.60 ERA), who faced the Yanks last Wednesday and who allowed two runs over four innings. Overall Roark is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts vs. New York.
The pick: He'll be opposed by Yanks' ace Gerritt Cole (5-3, 3.20) who comes in off a complete game effort vs. the Orioles, halting a three-game losing streak, while going on to strike out nine. Finally note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 18 of its last 26 after scoring 20 or more runs in a victory vs. an opponent in its previous outing. I expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Yanks.
|09-15-20||Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||6-20||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have only met in one other series, just last week and the Jays took two of three. The Yanks won the final game of that series and they just finished beating the Orioles in four straight, including outscoring them 23-3 in the process.
The pick: Taijuan Walker and Deivi Garcia have both been excellent for the most part in their limited time for their teams, but the problem is is that these talented hitting line-ups "saw" them just last week and I think that'll lead to trouble the second time around. While two of three fell "under" in their first series against each other, I believe that this first game in New York definitely sets up as a "slug-fest."
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jays/Yankees.
|09-12-20||Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9||Top||2-1||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: The Braves have been crushing the ball of late and while they've seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, including the first two of this series, I think Saturday's contest finally sets up as a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) who has been sharp in the time that he's been given, posting 18 strikeouts over 15 innings of work.
The pick: The home side counters with Patrick Corbrin (2-4, 4.34 ERA), who is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA in all of his games thrown in the Nation's capital. He faced the Braves last month and got rocked for five runs over five innings, only the second time in eight starts that he's allowed more than five runs. I like Corbin to bounce back here at home and I thikn that Andreson maintains his recent form as well. Additionally note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs." This number is a tad high.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Braves/Nationals.
|09-11-20||Braves v. Nationals UNDER 11||Top||7-8||Loss||-120||10 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some fairly high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that Friday's game sets up as more of a lower-scoring "under." The Braves go with Josh Tomlin (2-2, 3.77 ERA), who is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Nationals.
The pick: Erick Fedde (1-3, 5.29) gets the call for the home side and he's not fared as well against his opponent in the past. I'll point out though that the Nationals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after allowing seven or more runs in a home loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I think this one sneaks "under" once it's all said and done.
This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Braves/Nats.
|09-10-20||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||2-5||Win||101||14 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over," but I think that the finale will end in a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who has been sharp for sure this season and who has faced the D-Backs one other time. May has a big opportunity to pad his stats here vs. a dejected Arizona side which has lost five in a row and is officially eliminated from playoff contention.
The pick: The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 8.44) who makes his second start since returning from the ten-day DL. Bumgarner is obviously not happy at all with the way things have unfolded this year, the veteran though will look to personally close out strong as he prepares for next season. Bumgarner enters having gone 15-14 with a sharp 2.72 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Dodgers. I think this is a great "situational" play.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs.
|09-09-20||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9||Top||6-4||Loss||-101||13 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: While yesterday's game had 19 runs scored, I believe that Wednesday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.50 ERA) who threw six scoreless vs. these very D-Backs just last week. Overall Kershaw is a spectacular 18-10 with a 2.69 ERA in 35 starts vs. Arizona.
The pick: Taylor Clarke (1-0, 2.96) counters for the D-Backs and in six career appearances vs. the Dodgers he's a pedestrian 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. I'll point out though that Arizona has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. I think Arizona's issues at the plate once again come back to haunt it here. Expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.
The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs.
|09-08-20||Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5||Top||8-6||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: While neither team has been plating a lot of runs of late, I think that Tuesday's contest definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" finally. Cleveland won 5-2 yesterday and it's out to keep the foot on the gas with less than three weeks to go in the regular season. KC hands the ball to Jakob Junis (0-1, 4.32 ERA), while the Tribe go with Triston McKenzie (2-0, 1.69). Junis lost to the Indians last Wednesday, allowing two runs over four innings. McKenzie threw six shutout frames throwing opposite Junis, but regression is imminent for both of these over-acheiving young hurlers in my opinion.
The pick: Kansas City has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring two or less runs and losing by three or more runs in its previous outing. I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.
The is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Royals/Indians.
|09-07-20||Marlins v. Braves OVER 9||Top||5-4||Push||0||21 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: Considering the two gas cans on the mound this afternoon, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday and each will be motivated to get back into the winners circle. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his first start of the year after a positive Covid 19 test. Urena will be a short leash today.
The pick: Ian Anderson (0-0, 2.25) has a 14:3 K:BB over his first 12 innings of work, but clearly the sample size is still much too small for the Braves' rookie. I'll point out as well that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs in a victory in its previous outing. I expect both pitchers to get the hook early and as such, all signs point to the "over" as the correct call here.
The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Marlins/Braves.
|09-06-20||Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11||Top||10-8||Loss||-111||6 h 39 m||Show|
The set-up: Boston won 9-8 yesterday, but I think Sunday's total will sneak "under" once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (1-4, 7.34 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits with four strikes over 3.1 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on Tuesday. 36 of his 48 pitches were thrown for a strike and I like Ray to continue his progression in this favorable matchup.
The pick: The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (0-2, 16.20), who makes his first start for the Red Sox after being claimed off waivers from San Fran. Triggs has faced Toronto twice in his career and gone 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA over four innings of work. I'll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. This number is a tad high.
The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox.
|09-05-20||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5||Top||5-3||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: Yesterday's contest snuck "over" the number late (I had the "under" unfortunately), but I think that Saturday's contest will indeed stay below the posted number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (3-2, 3.14 ERA) who enters off an outing to forget vs. the Twins, allowing four runs (just two earned) while striking out eight over five innings. Note though that over his last three starts Giolito has allowed two earned runs while striking out 34 over 21 innings.
The pick: Cris Bubic (0-4, 5.46) comes off his best start of the year, allowing two earned runs and striking out eight over 5.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. these very White Sox. Over 28 frames of work Bubic now sports a respectable 27:12 K:BB this season and I expect him to build off his last outing. With these two starters battling deep, this total goes "under" once it's all said and done.
The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER White Sox/Royals.
|09-04-20||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10||Top||7-4||Loss||-115||12 h 17 m||Show|
The set-up: Yesterday's contest between these clubs flew well "over" the number in the ChiSox 11-6 victory, but I think that Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors go with Dane Dunning (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who faced these very Royals in his last outing, allowing one walk, no hits while striking out seven over five scoreless frames, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Over two starts Dunning sas a 14:2 K:BB and I think he keeps the momentum rolling here.
The pick: The home side counters with Brady Singer (1-3, 5.19), who allowed three runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision vs. these very White Sox last weekend. Dunning owns a decent 31:14 K:BB over 34.2 innings of work. I think these two young but hungry capable starters go into the latter frames and I believe that's going to help in driving this total "under" by the end of the night.
The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER White Sox/Royals.
|09-03-20||Rangers v. Astros OVER 7.5||Top||4-8||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
The set-up: Houston held on for a 2-1 win last night, but I think that the finale of this series sets up as more of a slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.93 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lynn has been sharp overall, but I don't think his early sparkling numbers are sustainable and regression is imminent again here in my opinion.
The pick: The home side counters with Zack Greinke (2-0, 2.68), who has been sharp in his limited time. I'll point out though that Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine home games after allowing one or less runs in a victory in its previous outing. I think this number is low, play the over.
The is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rangers/Astros.
|09-02-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5||Top||5-2||Loss||-125||11 h 15 m||Show|
The set-up: The first two games of this series stayed under the number, but I believe the third will find a way to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.40 ERA) gets the call after coming off the IL for the visitors tonight. Morton has been poor this year with a 1.50 WHIP and I think he'll get the hook early here as well vs. this determined home side.
The pick: Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.66) gets the call for New York and he most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note though that the Yankees have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten home games after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is a little low.
The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Yanks.
|09-01-20||White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9||Top||2-3||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
The set-up: Yesterday's series opener flew over the number in the White Sox come from behind 8-5 win, but I expect a much lower-scoring "duel" here between White Sox' ace Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.70 ERA) and Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00). Pineda finally makes his return after a 60 game suspension and he'll be given a full work load right out of the gates. Pineda threw a 70 pitch simulation recently and has been given the green light. Before his suspension he was one of the most consistent in the league and I think the time off for his arm will be huge moving forward.
The pick: Keuchel gave up two runs over six innings while also striking out seven in a victory last time out and there's no reason not to believe that the southpaw won't carry that momentum over here. Finally note that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 home games after allowing eight or more runs in a home loss in its previous outing. This number is a little high.
The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER WhiteSox/Twins.