At 3:10pm ET, my NL Total Of The Month is on the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Over. Saturday's game stayed below the total but Sunday's game is likely to be much higher scoring. Weather is going to be favorable at Coors Field, still known for its hitter-friendly condition. Brandon Pfaadt, with a 5.38 ERA (6.53 on the road!) and 1.39 WHIP, struggles with consistency and has never pitched at Coors, where his fly-ball tendencies could lead to extra-base hits in the thin Denver air. Antonio Senzatela, with a 6.72 ERA and 1.98 WHIP, has been ineffective this season, allowing nearly two baserunners per inning, which Arizona’s potent offense, led by Eugenio Suárez’s 25 homers and 67 RBIs, is well-equipped to exploit. Both bullpens rank in the bottom 5 of baseball, in terms of ERA and WHIP. Both teams rank high in slugging and recent games in this series have seen high run totals, like Friday’s 14-8 outcome. The pitching vulnerabilities and favorable hitting conditions points to a very high-scoring game. Play on the over.

At 7:05pm ET, my selection is on Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees. The Yankees are mired in an unexpected offensive slump, having been shut out in three consecutive games and scoring just five runs over their last six contests, a skid driven by a lack of timely hitting and a synchronized cold spell among their lineup. However, today’s matchup offers a prime opportunity to break out, as Angels' starter Jack Kochanowicz (3-8, 5.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) has struggled, particularly in June with a 0-2 record, 7.94 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and .383 opponents’ batting average across two starts. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense (4.37 runs per game on the road) is poised to capitalize on Yankees starter Ryan Yarbrough’s recent struggles, having posted a WHIP above 2.00 with 13 hits and five walks allowed in 8.2 innings over his last two outings. Given both pitchers’ vulnerabilities and the offensive capabilities of both teams, this final score will reach "double-digits." Play on the over.

At 7:40pm Et, my #1 MLB Total Of the Week is on Detroit/Chicago over the total. Both teams played low-scoring games on the weekend but the bats will come back to life on Monday, at Rate Field. Neither of these starters inspires confidence. Flaherty is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 5 road starts. He's got a 4.74 ERA his past 7 starts overall. Cannon is 2-6 on the season and he's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA his past 2 starts. Cannon is also 1-3 with a terrible 11.20 ERA in four starts vs. Detroit. Six of the past 9 head-to-head meetings, including 3 of the past 4, have finished with at least 9 runs. Play on the over.

At 7:15pm Et, my I.L Total Of the Month is on Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Under.I was impressed by the performances of both starting pitchers in their most recent outings. Grant Holmes held the Padres to just one run over seven innings, maintaining an impressive 1-0 record and a 1.86 ERA across his last three starts. Similarly, Lucas Giolito delivered seven scoreless innings for the Red Sox in a 2-1 victory against Baltimore, earning high praise from Boston fans. Given the current form of those starters, this number is generously high. With the Red Sox finishing under the total in four of their last five games, I anticipate another low-scoring contest. Play on the under. 

At 7:10pm Et, my NL Total of the Month is on Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Over. The Mets have scored 5 runs in three straight games. They may get even more than that against struggling Landon Knack. The Dodger right-hander has a 6.17 ERA through 6 appearances (4 starts) this season. NY's Kodai Senga has impressive numbers but they haven't come against a lineup like this. They may not have shown it yesterday but the Dodgers are the best hitting team in baseball. As a team, they have a .264 average and .802 OPS. Their 81 home runs is the most in the NL, second only to NY in all of baseball. Three of Knack's 4 starts have finished with "double-digits" in runs scored. This one will also be high-scoring. Play on the over. 

My NL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over between the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres at 9:40 EST. These two teams have both been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I anticipate the opener of this series to fly well over this small number on Tuesday night. It's impossible to say anything negative about either starting pitcher, so I won't bother. Logan Webb (3-1, 1.98 ERA) gets the nod for the Giants, while the Padres counter with Nick Pivetta (4-1, 1.20.) San Diego is 17-11, but now third in the NL West after four straight losses, scoring just three runs in that span. The Padres have seen the total go under in five straight. Note that this is just a two-game series, though. San Francisco has won four of its last five and its seen the total go under in three straight. There's room for regression from each starter as well moving forward. Pivetta has been amazing early, but remember he came into the season 56-71 and with an ERA closer to 5.00. Also note that in five previous outings against the Giants he's just 1-1 with a poor 5.40 ERA. Webb is a better 4-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 14 career outings against the Padres. But the bottom line here is that is a great situational play in my opinion and that these starters are in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." This number is low, so the play is on the over!

My ROUND-TRIPPER play is on the "over" between the Rays and Padres at 8:40 EST. Tampa has won three straight after taking the opener of this interleague series by a score of 1-0 yesterday. Previous to that it took two of three at Arizona, winning the final two games of that series by scores of 7-6 and 7-4. The Padres come in revenge-minded and ready to snap their two-game slide, first losing 6-0 at the Tigers, before yesterday's 1-0 home loss. These offensse both look primed for a bounce-back performance on Saturday though facing these scheduled starters though, with Tampa handing the ball to Ryan Pepiot (1-3, 4.82 ERA), and the home side countering with Dylan Cease (1-1, 6.04.) Pepiot is off a loss to the Yanks, while Cease is off a no-decision to the Astros. I'm expecting these starters to "get the hook early," and for that to help in pushing this total over the number.

My TOTAL ROUND-TRIPPER is on the over between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros. Toronto is now 12-12 overall and 4-7 on the road, while Houston is 12-11 overall and 8-6 at home after the Astros have taken the first two games of this series by scores of 7-0 and 5-1. Toronto will be desperate to snap its four-game slide. Houston is playing better after winning four of its last five. It's now seen the total go "under" in four straight games. Both the Jays' Bowden Francis (2-2, 3.13 ERA) and the Astros' Ryan Gusto (2-1, 3.18) have exceeded expectations to this point. Regression does feel imminent here. The Jays' big bats have been kept quiet over the first two games of this series, but I believe the finale finally sets up to be a much more offensive affair. This number is low, so the play is on the over.

My MLB ROUND-TRIPPER play is on the over between the Giants and the Angels at 9:35 EST. The opener of this three-game interleague series stayed well under the posted number in LA's 2-0 victory, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here on Saturday night as the Giants look to respond to the shutout loss as a favorite. The Angels have now seen the total go under in four straight after snapping their three-game skid yesterday. San Francisco had seen the total go over the number in eight straight games prior to yesterday's loss. But off back-to-back losses now, after going 2-2 in Philadelphia, San Francisco will be plenty motivated here now as well. Landen Roupp (1-1, 4.80 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 4.20) counters for the home side. Roupp has an elevated 1.60 WHIP already as well, while Hendricks stands at 1.20. Regardless, I don't really trust either guy here and expect both to exit early. As a result, and taking into account these other situational factors, the over is for sure the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. 

My AL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over between the LA Angels and the Texas Rangers are 8:05 EST. While the first two games of this series have stayed well below the posted number, with Texas winning the first game 4-0 and the second by a score of 3-1, I'm finally expecting some offense in what appears to be a classic "slug-fest" in the finale, though. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Kochanowicz (1-1, 5.74 ERA), who was most recently shelled for six runs with zero strikeouts over just 4.2 innings in a loss to Houston last Friday. He struck out only 25 batters over 65.1 innings of work last year. He'll be opposed by Kumar Rocker (0-2, 7.94), who gave up four runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Seattle last weekend. So far he only has six K's over 11.1 innings of work this year. Neither guy is missing many bats this year and while the first two games of this series have stayed well below the posted number, everything lines up for a high-scoring "over" here on Thursday with these two volatile starters going head-to-head in my opinion.

My AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under between the Red Sox and Rays at 7:05 EST. This American League East divisional series has so far been a very high-scoring one, but everything finally points to much more of a "duel" and lower-scoring outcome here in the finale in my opinion, for a few different reasons. Boston is now 9-10 and 5-7 on the road, while Tampa is 8-9 and 8-6 at home following the Red Sox 7-4 win on Tuesday. The Rays won the opener by a score of 16-1. The starters in this game haven't been extremely sharp to open up 2025, but each enters hungry to reverse their fortunes. Sean Newcomb (0-2, 4.97 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with Zack Littell (0-3, 6.88.) Littell is coming off a terrible start against the Angels, allowing seven runs over four innings. The one bright spot for Littell is that he owns a respectable 14:3 K:BB over 17 innings of work. Last year Littell posted a 2.90 ERA in front of the hometown crowd, and I believe he can return to form here against the Red Sox, who will look for Newcomb to recover from a disastrous outing as well, conceding six runs over four innings in a loss to the White Sox. Newcomb's time in the starting rotation is coming to an end shortly with reinforcements on the way, but he'll be looking to improve upon his 15:7 K:BB over 12.2 innings that he's worked as a starter so far. I say the conditions are finally correct for much more of a lower-scoring battle, after the first two games flew well over the posted number. This number is high, the play is the under.

My ULTIMATE PITCHERS DUEL is on the under between the Giants and Phillies at 6:45 EST. The Philadelphia Phillies have lost four of their last five after yesterday's humbling 10-4 series-opening loss. Overall Philadelphia is now 9-7. San Francisco is 12-4 overall, including 8-2 on the road. The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (0-0, 6.92 ERA) to start, and he most recently was rocked for six runs over six innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Reds on Wednesday. A date vs. the struggling Phillies is just what the doctor ordered for Verlander though, as Philadelphia was 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position yesterday. The Phillies will be leaning heavily on starter Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.50) get stop the slide, as he's conceded just three runs over his first three starts spanning 18 innings of work. Luzardo has already faced the Dodgers and Braves as well. Look for the second game of this series to now be dominated by the men on the mound. This number is high, the play is the under.

My INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Mets/Twins at 8:40 EST. I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the opener of this interleague contest. The Mets come to Minnesota sitting at 10-5, while the Twins are 5-11 to start. New York has the second-highest payroll in MLB, so anything less than a division title will be a letdown for the Mets. The visitors turn to CLay Holmes (1-1, 4.30 ERA), allowing four runs over six innings in a 10-5 win over the Marlins last time out. He also had ten strikeouts. Minnesota won't be panicking here after the slow start, as the AL Central is up for grabs. They're coming off a 5-1 win over the Tigers and hand the ball to ace Joe Ryan (1-1, 2.65 ERA), who dominated the Royals in his last start, going seven scoreless. Look for these two capable starting pitchers to be the focal point and main story line of this contest and because of that, I'm playing the under.

My TOTAL ROUND-TRIPPER is on the UNDER Rangers/Mariners at 4:10 EST. The first two games of this series have both flown over the posted number, but everything here finally points to more of a duel in the finale of this three-game AL West divisional series from Seattle. Seattle has won both games and is now 7-8. The Rangers fall to 9-6. While it will still be a crisp Spring day, weather conditions are expected to be perfect in the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, which is good news for starters Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Gilbert. Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.66 WHIP for the Rangers, while Gilbert is 0-1 with a 2.55 ERA and even small 0.62 WHIP. I'm expecting a "duel" here between these two guys and for the finale of this important early divisional battle and ultimately for the total to stay well under the number. 

My 8* ROUND-TRIPPER is on the OVER between the Blue Jays and Orioles at 4:05 EST. After going 3-1 at Boston, dropping the finale 4-3 on Thursday, the Toronto Blue Jays head to Baltimore No. 1 in the AL East at 8-6. These teams split a four-game series in Toronto at the start of the season. Three of those four contests flew well over the posted number, and I'm expecting another offensive affair here in the opener in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. Last night's game was postponed due to weather, so they'll just be playing two games this weekend, and making the other one up in July. The home side goes with Tomoyuki Sugano (1-1, 2.89 ERA), while the visitors counter with Bowden Francis (1-1, 3.18) to start this one. These were the scheduled Friday starters, so will the shift affect their schedule? I believe there are enough contributing factors that all point to this being a very offensive affair, and so the play is the over.

My AL West TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the UNDER Rangers/Mariners at 9:40 EST. It's the opening game of a three-game AL West Division series and with two really strong starting pitchers going head-to-head on Friday, I think we're definitely in store for a very low-scoring defensive battle in this one. Texas is off a 6-2 win at the Cubs to salvage that series, but overall the Rangers are No. 1 in the division at 9-4. Seattle is now 5-8 after taking two of three here from the Astros, including a 7-6 victory on Wednesday. The bottom line for me on this pick though is the starting pitching matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (0-0, 3.38 ERA), while the home side counters with Bryce Miller (0-2, 5.73.) DeGrom is 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA in five lifetime starts vs. the Mariners. Miller has struggled against the Rangers in the past, going 0-3 in five matchups vs. them. However, he's 11-7 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.977 WHIP at T-Mobile Park. I think Miller settles down here and matches his veteran counterpart inning for inning. While these teams have both been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, the opener in this one finally points to be a lower-scoring defensive under in my opinion.

My National League East TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under between the Phillies and the Braves at 7:15 EST. Philadelphia is 8-3 and Atlanta is 2-9. Atlanta took Game 1 of this series by a score of 7-5, before the Phillies bounced back in yesterday's 4-3 win. I'm expecting another tight, lower-scoring battle here on Thursday in the finale as well with two already "in form" starting hurlers squaring off. The Phillies hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo, while the home side counters with Spencer Schwellenbach. Luzardo is coming off a gem against the hard-hitting Dodgers, going six scoreless and I expect him to carry that momentum and confidence over here. Schwellenbach sent six-scoreless vs. the Padres, before then going eight scorless against the Marlins in his most recent outing, also striking out ten. Look for these two competent starters to take "center stage" tonight and battle into the latter innings, and for this total to stay under the number because of it.

My 8* TOTAL ROUND-TRIPPER is on the OVER between the Rockies and the Phillies at 1:00 EST. The first two games of this series have stayed well below the posted number, with Colorado losing the first game by a score of 6-1, and then yesterday by a score of 5-1. Philadelphia will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead here, with a series here at home vs. the Dodgers starting tomorrow, followed by a series at Atlanta. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela, who is already 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA this year. He owns an unremarkable 0-2 record with a pedestrian 4.40 ERA in six appearances vs. the Phillies in his career. The home side counters with Taijuan Walker, who makes his season debut here. Walker is 3-1 vs. the Rockies in eight appearances lifetime, but he took a big step back last year by finishing 3-7 with a 7.10 ERA. While the first two games fell well below the posted number, I say the conditions are now correct for more of an offensive affair, so the play is the over.

At 8:08pm ET, my MLB Playoffs Total OF the Year is on the Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Over. We saw some pretty good pitching in the first 2 games, both played at Dodger Stadium. That was with guys like Cole, Rodon, Flaherty and Yamamoto on the mound though. Now the series shifts to Yankee Stadium and the starting pitching matchup is a lot less daunting for the hitters. Clarke Schmidt is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA for his career in the postseason. He had a 1.39 ERA on the road this season but a 4.50 ERA at home. Buehler was once a dominant pitcher but those days are gone as injuries/surgeries have taken their toll. He's got a 6.00 ERA in these playoffs and he was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA during the season. It goes without saying that these lineups are both loaded. Nearly every hitter is dangerous. I love a good pitcher's duel but I don't think we'll get that here. This game will reach double-figures. Play on the over.

At 5:08 ET, my ALCS Total Of The Year is on NY and Cleveland under. You likely know the situation. The Yankees are up 2-0 and looking very strong. Veteran Matthew Boyd was out much of the regular season but he sure did his part in the divisional series. Boyd made two effective, albeit brief, starts against the Detroit Tigers in the AL Division Series. In 6 2/3 shutout innings, through two starts, he allowed just five total hits while striking out 10. He had a 2.24 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 4 home starts this season. Clarke Schmidt had a 2.85 ERA this season. That's already really good but if a closer look at his stats shows that he had a terrific 1.39 ERA in 8 road starts. Schmidt is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA his past 2 starts versus Cleveland. Scores were 3-2 and 4-3. The arms in the very capable bullpens got a day off yesterday and will be fresh and ready. Play on the under.

At 5:08pm ET, my NLDS Total Of The Year is on the Phillies/Mets under. The first 2 games of this series went to the way of the hitters but with a couple of battle-tested warriors on the mound, today's game will be all about the pitching. Veteran Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies. He's 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA in nine career playoff starts. Nola was even better than that in last year's postseason as he was 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA. Sean Manaea, another very capable veteran, was solid in this season's first postseason start. He's had a very good year (12-6, 3.47 ERA) and is 5-2 with a 2.97 ERA and .199 opponents batting average in his daytime starts. He just delivered seven quality innings against the Phillies less than a month ago. The Mets are finally back home and the Phillies are 10-6 to the under the last 16 times they faced them in New York. The late inning heroics come to an end and this game stays under.

At 1:08pm ET, my Div. Rd Total Of The Year is on the Tigers and Guardians over. This is a very low total. Bibee hasn't been as good at home as on the road. A 4.15 home ERA compared to a 2.76 away ERA. Three of his past 5 home starts have gone to the over and 4 of those finished with at least 7 runs. Bibee also has struggled against Detroit. He has a 1-3 record with a ERA of 5.28 in 6 starts versus the Tigers. Four of those 6 games went to the over and 5 of them finished with at least 7 runs. At home, Bibee is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA versus Detroit. The Tigers' pitching approach has been effective in getting them here but will lead to some runs Saturday afternoon. Eight of the past 12 h2h meetings have gone to the over. Enjoy the game and play on the over.

At 4:08 ET, my Wild-Card Total Of The Year is on KC/Baltimore under the total. These two starters are getting the call for Game 1 for a reason. Both had great seasons and both are red hot. Burnes came over to Baltimore in the off-season and immediately assumed the role of ace. He's been getting the job done all season long. Through 32 starts, he had a 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. In 5 September starts, he has a 1.20 ERA! Ragans also made 32 starts this season. He had a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He had a 2.30 ERA in his daytime starts and a 1.08 ERA in 4 September starts! As a matter of fact, Ragans is a perfect 6-0 to the under his past 6 starts. His last start was 0-0 after 9 innings and finished 1-0. Go with the Under.

At 1:10 ET, in Game 1 of the Double-header, my MLB TOW is on the Braves/Mets under the total. Sale will go in the second game for the Braves. He leads the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, a pitcher's triple-crown. The Mets won't find the going much easier in the early game though. Spencer Schwellenbach has given up just one run in 14 innings in two starts against the Mets. Those 2 starts against the Mets, the first of which was a head-to head showdown vs. today's opponent Tyler Megill, both stayed below the total with scores of 5-1 and 4-0. His last 3 starts have all gone to the under. As a matter of fact, Schwellenbach is 16-3 to the under his last 19 starts! Megill is also in exemplary form. Over his past 5 starts, he's 2-0 with a ERA of 1.78 and 28 strikeouts in 25 innings. Go with the Under.

At 8:40pm ET, my MLB TOW is on the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies Over. Two starts ago, Austin Gomber gave up 9 hits. Last start, he lasted only 2 innings and allowed 6 hits and 5 runs. Gomber also has a poor 6.55 ERA in 5 appearances versus the Cardinals. He allowed 4 runs in 5 innings against them in this season's only start. It finished with 13 runs. Erick Fedde has been strong at home but not on the road. Fedde has made 3 career starts at Colorado and all 3 produced at least 12 runs. None of those pesky Coors weather issues are in the forecast, it should be an excellent night for hitting. Play on the Over.

At 8:10 ET, my MLB Total Of The Month is on the over in the Arizona/Milwaukee game. This total is too low. Rea is not in good form for the Brewers. As a matter of fact, he has a 10.13 ERA in 3 September starts. He has a 4.88 ERA since the All Star Break and a 6.82 ERA his past 7 starts. He has a 7.20 career ERA versus Arizona. His only start against the diamondbacks as a member of Milwaukee, resulted in a 7-5 final score. Six of his past 8 starts have finished with at least 9 runs. The Brewers just saw Gallen less than a week ago. They had 6 hits and scored 3 runs against him in 5 innings. Facing the same team twice in a row can be difficult and Gallen usually isn't quite as tough on the road. This game will get over the low number. Play on the Over.

At 6:40pm ET, my NL East TOM is on Miami/Washington over. When considering the inconsistent form of these two scheduled starters, I think that this total will eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Nats turn to Matt Gore (8-11, 4.45 ERA,) who comes in off a victory over the Yankees, giving up two runs over six innings. So you know, it was just his second victory over his past 13 starts. Gore has been all over the map regarding his performance, especially on the road where he's just 2-6 with a 4.92 ERA. The home side counters with Valente Bellozo, who is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA overall, but who enters off a brutal start vs. the Rockies, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings. Bellozo has now allowed 11 earned runs and six homers over his last two outings (11.2 innings.) This one has "over" written all over it.

AT 2:10 ET, my NL Central TOM is on the Cardinals and Brewers Under. St. Louis just finished up winning two of three at the Yanks over the weekend, including a 14-7 win yesterday, while Milwaukee finally had its five-game win streak come to an end in yesterday's 4-3 setback at Cincinnati. The Cardinals are 11.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead, but only 5.5 games back of the final NL Wildcard spot. They say that divisional contests are always the most important, and that's definitely the case here for St. Louis and Andre Pallante (6-6, 3.80 ERA), who allowed two runs over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Padres in his last outing. Pallante has not conceded more than two runs in any of his last four starts. The under is 3-0 his last 3 starts and 13-7 his last 20. He'll have to be sharp here throwing opposite Freddy Peralta (9-7, 3.70), who went six scoreless and struck out eight in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. For the season he owns as sharp 172:56 K:BB. Peralta is 3-0-1 to the under his past 4 starts. With these two starters battling each other into the latter frames like I believe they will, the under is the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one.

At 3:40 ET my Total Dominator, is on Mets/Arizona under the total. The Peterson/Nelson matchup will result in some quality pitching this afternoon. Peterson continues to shine brightly. He's been delivering gem after gem and is now 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA this season. Nelson has also been really good. He is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA his last 7 starts. His last start here was a 3-2 final. Peterson's last road start was a 4-3 final. This game will also have that type of score. Play on the Under.

At 1:10 ET, my AL TOW is on Cleveland and KC to finish under. Both Michael Wacha and Tanner Bibee are having strong seasons. Bibee (10-6, 3.46 ERA) is 12-7-1 to the under his last 20 starts. Wacha (11-6, 3.32 ERA) is 8-3 to the under his last 11 road starts. Wacha has made 4 starts against Cleveland. Those 4 games averaged only 5 total runs with the under going 3-1. This game will be all about the pitching. Play on the Under.

At 12:05 ET, my Early Riser is on Washington/Atlanta over the total. Yesterday's game featured 21 hits but only 6 runs. We'll see a lot more scoring this afternoon. DJ Herz has a 5.50 ERA in four road starts. Reynaldo Lopez can be tough but hasn't been sticking around very long lately. He went 5 and 3 innings in his last 2 starts. He's only made 1 start since coming off the injured list so isn't likely to go much longer today either. Washington games average roughly 9 runs. I've got this one finishing above that average. Play on the Over.

At 7:40pm ET, my August AL Central Divisional Total Of The Month is on Kansas City and Minnesota Over the total. This total is too low. Minnesota game average 9.22 runs. Kansas City games average 8.80 runs. Brady Singer allowed 10 hits in 5.2 innings in his last start. That game had 14 runs. Singer's previous start finished with 13 runs. Pablo Lopez has a bad 4.74 ERA this season. He allowed 7 hits and 4 runs in 5 innings in his last start. That game finished with 10 runs. As a matter of fact, Lopez is 5-1 to the over since the start of July and each of his past 4 starts have finished with at least 10 runs. Play on the Over.

At 10:10 ET, my MLB Total Of The Year is on Pittsburgh and LA Under. A pair of top tier starters will lead to a low-scoring pitcher's duel at Dodger Stadium on Friday night. Jack Flaherty was a shrewd acquisition and he may help put the Dodgers over the top in this year's playoffs. He has a 2.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this season and he gave the Dodgers 6 shutout innings less than a week ago. That's 2 straight starts with 0 runs for Flaherty. He's got a 0.00 ERA in August and he had a 1.53 ERA in July. A former Cardinal, Flaherty knows the Pirates well. He's 9-1 with an exemplary 2.52 ERA in 15 career starts and one relief appearance against them. Mitch Keller gets it done. He went 4 innings last start but that was only because of a rain delay. He allowed just 1 hit and 0 runs in those 4 innings. He's 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA his last 15 starts. Keller has faced the Dodgers 3x since the start of the 2022 season and all 3 games finished with 8 or fewer runs. Play on the Under.

At 12:20 ET, my Early Riser is on Milwaukee/Altanta Under the total. The Brewers have scored big this series and that changes this afternoon. Charlie Morton is 4-0 to the under his last 4 home starts. As a matter of fact, since July 1st, 2023, Morton is 14-3 to the under at home. Montas earned a victory in his first start as a Brewer, bringing some stability to their rotation. Five strikeouts and 0 walks was a good sign for Brewer fans and was something that Montas can build off. Play on the Under.

At 7:10 ET, my NL Central TOM is on the Cubs and Cardinals under the total. Miles Mikolas has struggled at home. But Mikolas is 7-4 with a 3.89 ERA on the road. As a matter of fact, Mikolas is 13-1 to the under his last 14 road starts. That only over snuck over by a half run! (He's 7-2 to the over his last 9 at home.) Any trouble Steele has had this season has come in the day. He's got a 2.89 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at night, 65 strikeouts in 65 night innings. Play on the Under.

At 9:07pm ET, my IL Total Of the Month is on the Dodgers and Athletics under the total. Jack Flaherty makes his debut for the Dodgers. He's been getting it done for Detroit all year long and he'll be fired up for this start. Flaherty (2.95 ERA) will love being on the the Dodgers but he isn't likely to get much help in his first start. Not the way Mitch Spence is throwing the ball of late. Last game, Spence allowed 1 run in 6 innings.The game before that, he allowed 2 runs. Spence prefers pitching at night and he likes being on his home mound. 4 of Flaherty's last 6 road starts have finished below the total. Play on the Under.

At 4:10 ET, my Total. Of the Week is on Boston and Seattle under the total. George Kirby has a 0.98 WHIP this season with 129 strikeouts in 130 innings. He has an outside shot at the American League Cy Young Award. Kirby is 7-4-1 to the under his last 12 starts. He has a 2.02 ERA his last 7 starts. Bello held the Mariners to 1 run in 5 innings, striking out 7, the only time he faced them at Fenway. When he faced the Mariners earlier this season Bello conceded 2 runs in 5 innings. Bello has given up 3 runs or less in 4 of his 5 July starts, each of his past 3. Play on the Under.

At 6:50 ET, my IL TOW is on Tampa and Miami over the total. This total is low. As a matter of fact, no Tuesday MLB total is lower! Edward Cabrera is one of this season's worst pitchers. He's got a 12.19 road ERA giving up more than 1 run per inning. Jeffrey Springs has been out with injury for a long time. This is his first start this season. There was nothing special about his 0-3 record and 4.50 ERA which he compiled in his 9 rehab starts. Minor league batters hit .292 against him. Both starters are likely to give up some runs and neither bullpen is anything special. Final score will eclipse the low o|u line. Play on the Over.

At 7:10 ET, my AL East TOM is on NY and Boston under the total. Carlos Rodon was brilliant in his last start. Through 7 innings, he permitted just 2 hits. He didn't allow a hit until the 5th. He struck out 10. That's the type of performance Rodon needed and what the Yankees needed from him. He will carry the renewed confidence with him to the ballpark tonight. Rodon is 6-1 to the under in 7 career starts versus Boston. Tanner Houck has an exemplary 2.71 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 20 starts. Houck is 3-1-1 to the under his past 5 starts against the Yankees. Play on the Under.

At 1:05 ET, my Early Riser is on NY/TB over the total. A pair of struggling starters will lead to an offensive explosion on Monday afternoon. Rodon is 1-5 with a 7.94 ERA his past 7 starts. Littell is 1-3 with a 5.73 ERA his past 7. Littell is 5-2 to the over in those games. Since the start of May, Rodon is 9-3-2 to the over. Littell is 2-0 to over versus the Yankees. Play the Over

At 4:10 ET, my NL TOM is on New York and Miami Under the total. Today's pitching matchup features Luis Severino vs Roddery Munoz. We've already seen this matchup earlier this season, Severino and Munoz opposed each other on June 13. That game was a genuine pitcher's duel. Munoz went 6 shutout innings. He gave up just 1 hit! Severino also went 6 innings. After 5 shutout frames, he finally gave up a run in the 6th inning. The score was 0-0 after 5 innings, 2-1 going into the 9th. The Mets won 3-2 after scoring 2 in the bottom of the 9th. Severino and Munoz are going to be fired up for the rematch and we can expect more strong pitching. Play on the Under

At 9:45 ET, my I.L. TOY is on San Francisco/Toronto over the total. This total is too low. Toronto games average 8.55 runs. San Francisco games average 9.13. With a 1.42 WHIP on the season, Bassitt is allowing quite a few baserunners. Last start, he surrendered 8 hits in 5 innings. He also walked 4. That's 12 base-runners in 5 innings, a recipe for disaster. His last 5 starts have all finished with at least 7 runs. His last 3 starts have finished with 8, 12 and 13 runs. Webb has pitched well but his starts still tend to end up producing quite a few runs. Webb's last start finished with only 6 but his previous 8 starts all finished with at least 7 runs. Those 8 starts averaged 8.5 runs. Webb has a 9.00 ERA versus Toronto. Play on the Over.

At 4:10 ET, my AL TOY is on Seattle/Toronto over the total. This total is too low. The Mariners couldn't hit yesterday's starter but they will have much better success today. Jose Berrios allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start. He only struck out 1 batter. Berrios also allowed 5 earned runs in his last road start. He had a 4.70 ERA in May and a 4.85 ERA in June. On the road, he's 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA. Berrios is supported by a bad Toronto bullpen. Kirby has an ERA above 4 when pitching during the day. Kirby is 0-1 with an ERA of 7.56 in 2 career appearances versus the Blue Jays. Berrios' last start at Seattle finished with 22 runs. The weather will be favorable for hitting and this will be another high-scoring game. Play on the Over.

At 6:40 ET, my NL Central TOY selection is on the St Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates to go und the total. Keller is 9-4 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He averages over 6 innings per start. A deeper look reveals that he's 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA since the start of May! With a 3.77 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, averaging nearly 6 innings per start, Gibson has also been dependable. Though he lost to the Braves last start, Gibson was 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA over his previous 11 starts. Four of Keller's last 5 against the Cardinals have gone under. Gibson is 2-0 to the under versus the Pirates since 2022. Play on the Under.

At 7:45pm ET, my June T.O.M. selection is on the Braves and Cardinals Over the total. Lynn isn't pitching well right now. He was hit hard by the Marlins last game. The final score was 9-8. Lynn has a 7.91 ERA and 1.83 WHIP his last 3 starts. Schwellenbach has a 6.75 ERA in 2 road starts. Last time that Lynn pitched against Atlanta was last August. He gave up 3 home runs and 7 runs in 4.33 innings. The final score was 8-7. His last 3 starts against Atlanta have all finished with 10 or more runs. The last 3 head-to-head meetings had scores of 10-6, 11-6 and 8-5. Play on the Over.

At 4:10 ET, my NL Central TOY selection is on the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers to go over the total. The Reds entered this series having played 5 consecutive unders. That changed yesterday when they combined with the Brewers for 11 runs. The bats will be running hot again for this afternoon's game.

Neither of today's starters inspires much confidence right now. Wilson got trounced by the Tigers in his last start. He has a 8.31 ERA his last 3 starts. Abbott has been better than Wilson but still has a 5.29 ERA his last 3 starts. The Reds used up a lot of relievers in preserving yesterday's victory. The (4) 2024 meetings between these divisional rivals have now finished with 18, 14, 9 and 11 runs, an average of 13 per game. Play on the Over.

At 6:50 ET, my AL East TOY is on Baltimore/Tampa under the total. Corbin Burnes is one of the most reliable starters in American League. If he stays healthy, he is a serious Cy Young Award contender. He's 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.029 WHIP. On the road, he's got a 0.969 WHIP. Pepiot has an even better WHIP (0.955) than Burnes, in his 10 starts. He leads all Tampa starters in batting average against (.185).

Over his last 6 starts, Burnes has permitted just 6 combined runs. Over his last 7 starts, Pepiot has only conceded 13 total runs, less than 2 per outing. The hitters aren't familiar with either starter. Both will making their first career start against today's opponent. The pitchers will have the advantage and this game will be low-scoring. Play on the Under.

At 9:40 ET, my AL West GOY is on Seattle/Oakland Over the total. These may not be the best hitting teams but this is a very low total. Oakland games average 8.6 runs. When Estes is pitching, A's games are averaging 11 runs. He is 4-1-1 to the over in 6 career major league starts. That's what happens when you have a career 6.46 ERA. This will be the first time that a major league team sees Estes for the 2nd time.

Gilbert gave up 8 hits last start and 2 of those left the ballpark. In 6 May starts, Gilbert was 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA. He's hoping for a better month but he didn't pitch very well (4.50 ERA) last June. Last night's game finished with 7 runs but the previous 5 meetings all finished with 9 or more runs. Play on the Over.

At 9:38PM ET, my American League Total Of the Month is on the Yankees/Angels Over the total. The starters for this game have both been pretty good. That's worked into the total. It would be higher otherwise. The Angel bullpen held up last night but is unlikely to do so again. LA relievers entered the series with a collective ERA above six at home!

Anderson is 3-1 to the over in 4 home starts. He'll be facing a dangerous Yankee lineup, loaded from top to bottom. Gil's last road start finished with 16 runs. Two of his last 3 road starts have finished with more than 12 runs. Angel games average 9.36 runs. Weather appears favorable. Play on the Over.

Yesterday's game was extremely low-scoring but the bats will bounce back to life this afternoon. He may have a great name but Rogers is a really bad pitcher this season. He's 0-6 in 8 starts, the Marlins are 0-8 in those games. On the road, he has a 9.00 ERA and 2.70 WHIP. His last 3 starts have all gone to the over and he has a 12.66 ERA and 2.72 WHIP in those 3 games. Those 3 games all finished with 9 or more runs and they totalled 43 runs!

Mize has been better than Rogers. It would be hard to be worse. But he has a 4.41 ERA and 1.448 WHIP his last 3 starts. Two of those went over. Miami bullpen has been bad overall. Tiger bullpen has had some issues at home. Both have already blown numerous at least 10 saves. Before yesterday, Miami had scored 15 runs in its previous 3 games and Detroit had scored 19 in its previous 3. Go with the Over!

We will take advantage of this low total on Sunday night baseball. The Braves average 5 runs a game and they may need more than that if they're going to win this game. Elder allowed 7 runs in 3.33 innings in his last start. He gave up three home runs, 7 hits overall. He also walked 4. A dismal performance all around.

Elder's 18.90 road ERA is only from 1 game but he was worse on the road than at home last season. Over his last 3 road starts since last season, he's allowed 17 earned runs in 11 combined innings. Those games had 13, 12 and 15 runs. Severino walked 6 batters in 5 innings of his last start, a game which finished with 13 runs. Go with the Over!

Walker has made only one start this season. The score was 8-6 as he allowed 6 runs. Webb was hit hard in his last start. He gave up 9 hits and 4 runs in 3.67 innings. Webb's 2 career starts versus Philadelphia have averaged 13 runs, each finishing with at least 9.

Six of Walker's last 7 starts, since last season, have finished with at least 9 runs. Those 7 games finished with 85 total runs, more than 12 per game. Neither bullpen has been good. The Giants bullpen has a 5.20 ERA.The Phillies bullpen has a 6.31 ERA at home. This number is too low. Go with the OVER!

This is a low total for an Atlanta Braves game. As a team, the Braves are hitting .272. That's the second best mark in baseball behind only LA. They average 5.7 runs per game. That's almost enough to go over this low total right there.

Castillo is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home. Nice start to the season for Reynaldo Lopez. He's still 41-49 with an 4.19 ERA over his career and has done more work out of the bullpen than as a starter. The last time that Lopez started against Seattle, he allowed 6 runs and 3 home runs. The score was 10-8. This one goes over the low number!

Wednesday game resulted in a 2-0 pitcher's duel. Thursday afternoon's game will be entirely different. Carrasco is permitting a lot of baserunners. He has a 1.657 WHIP. Averaging less than 5 innings, he likely won't be around long. Four of Carrasco's last five starts against Boston have finished with 10 or more runs. Last game here Carrasco went only 2 1/3 innings and allowed 10 hits and 5 runs.

Brennan Bernardino won't be going deep into the game either. This is his first start this season. Of his 61 big league appearances, only 6 have been starts. The Boston bullpen didn't come into play yesterday because of Houck's masterpiece but it will today. Red Sox relievers have an awful 6.94 ERA and 1.69 WHIP at Fenway. Go with the Over!

The Milwaukee Brewers haven't been involved in many pitcher's duels but they're about to get one on Tuesday! Dylan Cease allowed 2 runs in 6 innings last start. Both were unearned. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 straight starts. He is 5-2 to the under his last 7 starts. As a Padre, Cease has a 2.16 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. He held the Brewers to 2 runs in 7 innings in a start last August.

Miley has a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP from this season's only start. He allowed only 1 hit and 1 run through 4 innings. Since last season, he has allowed 1 run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, 3 runs in the other. Just like Cease, Miley is 5-2 to the under his last 7 starts. Miley's last start against SD finished with a 1-0 score. Both bullpens have been solid. Go with the Under!

Yesterday's game finished with a 5-2 score and runs will be hard to come by again today. Paxton has a dynamite 1.64 ERA in 2 starts. He's off a quality start at Minnesota, a game which finished with a final score of 4-2. Paxton faced the Padres last season and held them to 1 run in 6 innings. The final score was 6-1.

Darvish has been decent so far as he has a 3.86 ERA. Darvish has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 straight starts against the Dodgers, 2 or less in 5 of those. He only went 3 2/3 innings in this season's first start agains them but allowed just 2 hits and 1 unearned run. San Diego bullpen has been fairly solid (1.25 WHIP) on the road. Twelve of Darvish's 13 starts versus LA have finished with 9 runs or less. Eleven of those games finished with less than 9. Go with the Under! **NL WEST TOY**

We had with the Rays yesterday so it was nice to see them add some late insurance runs to their 8-2 blowout victory. That was also the score in Thursday's opener, the Blue Jays winning that one. Those totals were set at 7.5 and 8. This one is even higher. Too high!

Littlell was sneaky good in a September start versus the Jays. He gave up 2 runs through 5 2/3 innings but both were unearned. He struck out 6 and walked one, keeping the ball in the park. In 8 starts versus Tampa, Kikuchi has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs on 7 occasions. The bullpen won't blow it again. Go with the Under!

Back-to-back high-scoring games to start the WS and now the scene shifts to Arizona. Pfaadt has come up big for the Diamondbacks. He's got a 1.29 ERA his last 3 starts. All resulted in Arizona victories. All resulted in games that fell under the total. Scherzer is an all-time great. He's 5-0 in six appearances at Arizona and he allowed 1 run or less in 3 of those. He also allowed 3 or fewer runs in all three of his previous WS starts. He'll be better today and the final score will stay below the total. **playoff toy

Lots of hitting in yesterday's winner-take-all event as last night's Game 7 ended with 15 runs. This one will be much lower-scoring. Most recent Game 7's are. These teams combined for 6 runs yesterday. Both these starters were extremely strong when they opposed each other in Game 2. The final score was 2-1. That was by far the lowest-scoring game of the series. Pfaadt went 5.2 shutout innings, Suarez went 5.1 shutout innings. This one also stays under. *NLCS TOW

A previously high-scoring series will feature great pitching tonight. Eovaldi is a great competitor. He's 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the postseason. Twenty-four strikeouts in 19.2 innings. Valdez may not have been brilliant in this series but he's still only a couple of months removed from throwing a no-hitter. With a chance to punch a ticket to the World Series The bullpens got a day to rest yesterday and it will be all hands on deck. Look for the bats to stay quiet and the final score to stay Under. *ALCS TOY

Yesterday's game was a wild one. Today's will also be exciting but only if you appreciate top level pitching. What more can you say about Wheeler? In three playoff starts, he's got a 0.63 WHIP. That goes with a 2-0 record and 2.37 ERA, with 26 strikeouts in 19 innings. All three of Gallen's postseason starts have been on the road. He's been much better here at home all season. In 16 starts here, he's 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA. Wheeler should continue his strong pitching and Gallen will be better in his home park. Go with the Under. *Total Dominator

These guys don't have the big established names like Verlander or Scherzer. Don't discount either Urquidy or Heaney though. Urquidy has permitted only 2 runs his last 2 starts combined. Games had final scores of 3-2 and 2-1. Heaney doesn't go deep but he keeps the ball in the park (0 HRs last four starts) and he doesn't allow many runs. Last two starts: 1 combined run. Last 10 starts: 14 combined earned runs, never more than 3. Three of Heaney's last four starts have finished with less than 8 runs. Go Under! *Totals club

The Phillies are very strong at home in the playoffs. They jumped on Arizona early yesterday and won 5-3. That game had a lower total than this one and the final score finished over. This one will be lower-scoring and likely won't feature early runs the same way as yesterday. Take a look at these pitching numbers. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in the current postseason. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in the postseason. Kelly now has a 2.20 ERA his past five. Nola? He's 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA. Neither starter has allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. This game stays under! *NLCS TOY

Off a high-scoring Game 3, we'll see better pitching in this one. Strider has owned the Phillies for his career and he was sharp in the series opener. When Strider and Suarez opposed each other in Game 1, the final score was 3-0. Suarez didn't stick around too long but was brilliant for his time in there. Like Game 1, this one will likely be another low-scoring nail-biter. Go with the Under. *totals club

A high-scoring opener will be followed by a low-scoring Game 2. Valdez is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 7 career appearances against the Twins. He held them to two hits and one run through 7 innings last time he faced them. He's been solid at home all season. Lopez has been solid on the road all season. He has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 3 straight starts and 12 of his last 14. His last start resulted in a 3-1 final. Expect some high-quality pitching with this game going under. *total dominator

October baseball will bring some of everything with an extra amount of quality pitching and defense. Montgomery has become the ace of this Texas staff and he's earned that title down the stretch. His final four starts, a span of 27 innings, have seen him allow only 2 total runs! The last three of those games stayed below the total. Glasnow was crisp last start, striking out nine through five shutout innings. He gave up only two hits in the 5-0 TB win. A playoff veteran, Glasnow is 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA against Texas. Runs will be hard to come by. Go with the Under!

This number, in my estimation, is too low. Entering the weekend,.Baltimore games vs. right-handed starters were averaging 9.2 runs. Boston games vs. right-handers were averaging 9.9. Bradish has been pretty good but he got destroyed the last time that he faced the Red Sox in a game at Baltimore. In fact, he's 1-4 with a 8.13 ERA in 7 starts against Boston. Houck has just been plain bad. He gave up 10 hits in 3 innings of last start. He was on the wrong-sided of an 11-2 loss (against Bradish) against Baltimore less than a month ago. This one sails over! *AL East TOM

Both teams played high scoring games on Sunday. This one will be different. Verlander against Castillo facing each other in a huge game. Talk about a heavyweight fight! These guys are both absolute aces. Verlander can still dominate. His last road start, he allowed one earned run in 7 innings. Castillo has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in five of his past six starts, including each of his past three. His last two home starts both finished with identical 3-2 scores. He held Houston to a single unearned run through 7 innings, back in July. Knowng their teams are in need, Castillo and Verlander both bring their A-Game in this one. Enjoy the old fashioned pitcher's duel.

The Nationals and the White Sox have both been eliminated from the postseason and are starting to play around with their pitching staffs to see what will work for the future.  Probable starter Rutledge for the Nats has one start in the majors to his name and it didn’t go well.  He gave up 7 runs in 3.2 innings of work.   He has bounced around in the minors for 7 teams in the last 4 years with wildly varying degrees of success.  He should be just the remedy the White Sox need to activate their lethargic bats. 

Probable starter Ureno for the White Sox had 5 starts in April, was released by two clubs and now has 2 starts in September.  In his last 5 starts his team has surrendered an average of 9.4 runs.

In their last 7 games the two teams have given up an average total of 11.5 runs/9 innings.  All these numbers point towards that perfect storm of high event baseball.  Make a bowl of popcorn and add up the runs for this over total.

Two very good right-handers meet up today when the D-backs' Kelly faces the Mets' Senga today.  Kelly has been one of the most consistent starters since returning from the IL in July.  He has a 1.42 ERA with 18 K's in his two September starts.  Senga has a 2.82 ERA in his last seven starts.  He faced the Diamondbacks in July, throwing an 8 inning, 1 run gem.  Arizona, at 6-4, has been winning with their pitching.  The offense hasn't managed more than four runs and is averaging less than three in their last six games.  The Mets put up 14 runs in their last two starts against the Diamondbacks, but in their previous five games averaged under three runs.  The Mets have been hitting for power if not for average in the last week; not so the D-backs, who are 25th in the league at .238/.697.  I expect today's game to be low scoring.  Take the Mets and Diamondbacks to stay very low in runs allowed while the starters are in, and hold on for the under.

These two teams were two of the first to be eliminated from the post-season and are wallowing down at the bottom of the standings, doing what they can to make it to the end and set themselves up for next season.  Who would have thought we would find such value in a couple of dumpster fire seasons. 

In their last three head-to-head they have totals of 10, 13 and 13.   Tuesday’s probable starters, Singer for the Royals and Cease for the White Sox started that middle 13 total.  In Cease’s last two starts he has totals of 13 and 15.  Cease had an ERA of 8.07 in August and is at 6.05 in September.  Singer has an ERA of 6.43 for his last 5 starts.

The available bullpens both have ERAs north of 5.50. 

The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs against/ 9 innings and the White Sox have averaged 4.5 runs against/9 innings over their last 7 seven games. 

All these numbers add up to totals well over 9 for this game.  Take the over and enjoy an early high event game.

These two clubs have been involved in some high scoring games in September.  The Twins have been in 4 straight games where the total has gone over.  The Guardians are over for 3 of their last 4 games.  And I really mean over.  The Twins last 4 have averaged a total of 16 runs/game.  The Guardians last 4 have averaged a total of 14.5 runs/game. 

Maybe the probable starters for these two teams will be different though.  Not so fast.  In his last nine starts, Ryan for the Twins has seen 8 out of 9 go over.  And Williams for the Guardians has a 6.97 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

In their last 7 games the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs for/ 9 innings, while the Guardians have averaged 6.9 runs against/ 9 innings.  That makes a total that sure looks like an over.  Or you could use the 5.0 runs against/9 innings the Twins have averaged over their last 7 and the 4.7 runs for/9 innings the Guardians have averaged, and you will still get an awfully over looking total.  Take the over and start counting runs.

The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games.  They kept the score down in their win on Sunday but allowed at least seven runs in the previous four games.  Taijuan Walker starts on Monday, and while he has been steady this year, he still gives up 3 runs on average while pitching around five innings lately.  His ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher on the road, but he has had great run support this season.  Padres' starter, lefty Rich Hill's starts have been very short lately.  He gave up nearly a run an inning in August, not a good look against a Phillies team that is tops in bops over the last two weeks.  Both offenses are strong; the Phillies are .288/.960 OPS and very good against left handed pitching, while the Padres have climbed to .258/.754 lately.  The Phillies swept the Padres in earlier meetings and all games easily went over.  I expect the same result today.  Both starters appear tired at this stage of the season, Hill especially at the ripe old age of 43.  Take the Phillies and Padres to again go over the the total today.

The Rays, challenging for first in their division, have lost 2 close games to the Guardians, after a fine 7-1 run.  They are 18-8 as a road favorite, and hitting well (.277/.820 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Cleveland, often down in the offense stats, has been better than average at .263/.726 in the last week.  Rays' call-up Bradley was effective in the Minors lately, but still has issues with walks and home runs.  Bradley was just 1-4, 7.67 ERA with the  Rays this year,  but Tampa needs help with starters.  Guardians' youngster Curry has now started 5 straight games, with very mixed success.  He threw for just a pair of innings each in his last two starts giving up 9 runs total.  
Tampa especially is very good vs right handers.  The Rays should be ultra-focused today to avoid the sweep and will get their chances against Curry.  Bradley is a bit of a question mark, but did not fare well in the earlier season.  I like the Rays and Guardians to put up some runs today, especially early.  Take the total to go over today.

The Jays and Guardians have played each other five times this year and not one of those games has gone over 7 runs. Jays' lefty Riu looks to have his best stuff back since returning from a long stint on the IL.  He has given up 0 runs in his last 3 starts, averaging around 5 innings per appearance.  He shut out the Guardians over 4 innings last time he faced them.  Left- handed rookie Logan Allen has had a fine first season.  He struggled mid-season but looks to have rallied in August, with a 1.96 ERA for the month.  He held Toronto to 1 run over 5 innings just 3 starts ago.  Both teams have solid bullpens lately.  The Guardians are the worst team in the league against lefties, while the Jays are a poor 28th against everyone in the last 2 weeks.  Take Saturday's game to go under the total again.

The Tigers and Guardians split a double-header on Friday, scoring just 5 and 6 runs total in the two games.  Another low scoring game might be in the cards on Saturday with Manning facing the Guardians' rookie phenom Bibee.  Bibee is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last seven games, and has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than 3 runs in his last 10 appearances against tough competition. Manning starts for the Tigers.  He bounced back with a very fine start after 3 straight rough outings.  He has been much better in away games this season.  The Tigers and Guardians are 21st and 28th vs right handers.  Cleveland is poor against anyone of late with a .236/.644 OPS in the last two weeks.  The under in Cleveland's and Detroit's last ten games is a combined 15-5.  I like the under in this game as well.  Look for a very low total in the early going.  Take the Tigers and Guardians to stay under the total .

Probable pitcher Severino for the Yankees recently called himself the worst pitcher in baseball.  That hasn’t been the case in the recent past as he was an all-star once.  But lately with a 13.50 ERA so far in August and an 11.22 ERA in July he has been horrendous.  Add in a 2.15 WHIP over his last 3 and you have a recipe for lots of runs.  Probable starter Elder for the Braves started out strong but has faltered as of late.  His August ERA is 9.64 so far and his July ERA was 5.96.  In his last 3 starts his WHIP has been 1.347 and his ERA has been 6.06.

At the plate the Braves lead the majors over the last 15 days and all season vs. RHP in avg. and OPS.  The Yankees have been middle of the pack over the last 15 days but have some power at the plate that could cause Elder some grief.  In their last 7 games the Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs for/9 innings and 5.6 runs against/9 innings which in and of itself could lead to a formidable total but when you look at the Braves 8.4 runs for/9 innings and 4.0 runs against/9 innings in their last 7, this could get ugly for the pitchers. 

The Yankees have been 6-4 in their last 10 for overs and the Braves have been 8-2 for overs in their last 10.  This could be a perfect storm for a runaway total.

The 3-7 Mets salvaged a single win in the Braves series, but gave up a massive 33 runs in the three games.  Pittsburgh is 5-5 L10, but has seen the over in seven of ten games, averaging six runs-allowed in their last seven games.  Carrasco was surprisingly good in his last start (two runs over five innings), but based on his record this year, he is no one to rely on for a quality start.  His ERA in July was 7.79 and he gave up a dozen runs in his previous eight plus innings.  He has been especially poor when pitching at home this year.  He'll face rookie right-hander Priester, who has struggled in his first season.  None of his starts have gone over five innings, and he is hovering around a run an inning for the season.  The Mets are struggling with the bats, scoring four runs or less in nine of ten games, but they will get their chances vs Priester.  The Pirates were 10th in OPS over the last week and will have the chance to run up the score if Carrasco reverts to his season's form.  The Mets' bullpen is a disaster lately, the Pirates', merely poor.  Take the Mets and Pirates to go over the total.

After a run-fest yesterday in the Rangers/Giants match up on Saturday, It could be a low scoring game today.  Webb, the Giants' most dependable starter, has been consistent this year, pitching for length with low runs allowed and very good control.  Dunning slipped a bit in July but his last 2 starts have been fine, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings.  The Giants are really struggling to produce runs, batting just .210 with a .590 OPS in the last week.  The Rangers are getting excellent results from their bullpen lately.  They are a formidable offensive team, but like anyone else will struggle against a fine starter.  Look for length and quality from today's starters, and a total similar to Game One of the series.  Play the Under today!

After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays  match-up to be a much lower scoring affair.  The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action.  Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games.  What has he done lately?  Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched.  Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings.  He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month.  Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date.  Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS.  Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well.   I expect a very low scoring game in the early going.  Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings.  Look for the bullpens to hang on.  Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total.

After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less.  Both left-handed starters are on fine runs.  Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts.  Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances.  Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching.  The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense.  I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome.  Take the total to go under on Saturday.

The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.

Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters.  Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP.  Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing.  Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. 

Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days.  The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch.

All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers.  Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays.

Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts.  Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July.  While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching.  The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher.  Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. 

The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them.  At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games.  The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games.  Medina starts for Oakland.  The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings.  He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants.  He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA.  The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising.  The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday.  I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. 

These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately.  Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games.  In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games.

Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading.  Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors.  The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters.  This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out.  At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game.  When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11.  In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3.  All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game.  

The Rangers are allowing a whopping 7.3 runs a game over the last week, and that underwhelming bullpen is part of the problem.   Dunning starts today, and while he is having an impressive season, he has struggled in  two of three starts.  Last time out was his worst start of the year. Musgrove has been very solid, but the Rangers are a formidable offense to reckon with. The Padres are starting to hit, climbing to tenth in OPS over the last week.  Today's total is low, but I am wagering on the total to go over when all is said and done.

Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately.  Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered.  In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA.  It hasn’t been pretty.  The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8.  Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8

For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9.  The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9.  If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8.  Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon.

Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately.  Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.  Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging  6.1 innings.  In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. 

In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS.  The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. 

Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total.  In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds.  Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5.  The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine.

The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning %  than the 9-7 Braves.  A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings.  He has an OP BA of .327 in July.  Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts.  He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July.  Atlanta is  5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week.  The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly  6.14.  Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total.

Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series.  Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date.  Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts.  He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games.  Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date.
With just 7 starts each so far, Friday's pitchers are just hitting their stride(s) at this point. Both starters will very likely pitch effectively for a least five innings.  While the Guardians' bullpen is dependable, KC's is a different story, however Lynch has won two of his last three starts, and offers solid start length. I'll hold my breath re: the Royals' relievers, but I am wagering on the under on Friday.

Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately.  But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. 

Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days.  But in terms of runs neither have produced much.  In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for.  Both those are under the expected line of 9.  On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against.  All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair.

In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0.  The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.  It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under.

These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately.  The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04.  In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort.  In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00.  Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season.  In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. 

But what about the under records for these two teams.  The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road.  In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record.

In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.  The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings.  This looks like another solid total.  Go with the under on this one. 

Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons.  But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June.  Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month.  Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively.  Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing.  He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out.  It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. 

In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9.  In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9.  Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up.  Take the over on this one.

The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week..  They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday.  The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00.  The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief.  Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited .  He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth.  Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. 

Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens.  Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday.  Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total.

The Tigers have won 3 of 4 games and averaged 7 runs in those wins.  That is quite an improvement for a team enmired in the cellar on offense this season.  Eight of their last ten games have gone over. The Royals are allowing plenty of runs lately; over 6 on average in their last 7 games.  They are very poor as a road underdog and just 2-13 in June.  Jordan Lyles has had an abysmal year to date, the consistent victim of big innings.  At 0-11 and with an era of well over 6, quality starts have been few and far between.  Young Tigers starter Olson surprised in his first two appearances since a June call up but his last start is probably truer to form, when he allowed 6 ER in 3+ innings. He struggled seriously in Triple A this season.  Both teams have an opportunity to put up some runs today.  I m wagering on a high total.  Take KC and the Tigers to go over.

Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons.  They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams.  It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late.  In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period.  Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5.  Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17!

The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season.  Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined.  The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters.  It all adds up to a total over 10  Take the over for the win.

Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today.  Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high.  Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA.  The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business.  Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games.  We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts.  the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again.  Take the Under this evening. 9*s!