Back-to-back high-scoring games to start the WS and now the scene shifts to Arizona. Pfaadt has come up big for the Diamondbacks. He's got a 1.29 ERA his last 3 starts. All resulted in Arizona victories. All resulted in games that fell under the total. Scherzer is an all-time great. He's 5-0 in six appearances at Arizona and he allowed 1 run or less in 3 of those. He also allowed 3 or fewer runs in all three of his previous WS starts. He'll be better today and the final score will stay below the total. **playoff toy

Lots of hitting in yesterday's winner-take-all event as last night's Game 7 ended with 15 runs. This one will be much lower-scoring. Most recent Game 7's are. These teams combined for 6 runs yesterday. Both these starters were extremely strong when they opposed each other in Game 2. The final score was 2-1. That was by far the lowest-scoring game of the series. Pfaadt went 5.2 shutout innings, Suarez went 5.1 shutout innings. This one also stays under. *NLCS TOW

A previously high-scoring series will feature great pitching tonight. Eovaldi is a great competitor. He's 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the postseason. Twenty-four strikeouts in 19.2 innings. Valdez may not have been brilliant in this series but he's still only a couple of months removed from throwing a no-hitter. With a chance to punch a ticket to the World Series The bullpens got a day to rest yesterday and it will be all hands on deck. Look for the bats to stay quiet and the final score to stay Under. *ALCS TOY

Yesterday's game was a wild one. Today's will also be exciting but only if you appreciate top level pitching. What more can you say about Wheeler? In three playoff starts, he's got a 0.63 WHIP. That goes with a 2-0 record and 2.37 ERA, with 26 strikeouts in 19 innings. All three of Gallen's postseason starts have been on the road. He's been much better here at home all season. In 16 starts here, he's 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA. Wheeler should continue his strong pitching and Gallen will be better in his home park. Go with the Under. *Total Dominator

These guys don't have the big established names like Verlander or Scherzer. Don't discount either Urquidy or Heaney though. Urquidy has permitted only 2 runs his last 2 starts combined. Games had final scores of 3-2 and 2-1. Heaney doesn't go deep but he keeps the ball in the park (0 HRs last four starts) and he doesn't allow many runs. Last two starts: 1 combined run. Last 10 starts: 14 combined earned runs, never more than 3. Three of Heaney's last four starts have finished with less than 8 runs. Go Under! *Totals club

The Phillies are very strong at home in the playoffs. They jumped on Arizona early yesterday and won 5-3. That game had a lower total than this one and the final score finished over. This one will be lower-scoring and likely won't feature early runs the same way as yesterday. Take a look at these pitching numbers. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in the current postseason. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in the postseason. Kelly now has a 2.20 ERA his past five. Nola? He's 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA. Neither starter has allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. This game stays under! *NLCS TOY

Off a high-scoring Game 3, we'll see better pitching in this one. Strider has owned the Phillies for his career and he was sharp in the series opener. When Strider and Suarez opposed each other in Game 1, the final score was 3-0. Suarez didn't stick around too long but was brilliant for his time in there. Like Game 1, this one will likely be another low-scoring nail-biter. Go with the Under. *totals club

A high-scoring opener will be followed by a low-scoring Game 2. Valdez is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 7 career appearances against the Twins. He held them to two hits and one run through 7 innings last time he faced them. He's been solid at home all season. Lopez has been solid on the road all season. He has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 3 straight starts and 12 of his last 14. His last start resulted in a 3-1 final. Expect some high-quality pitching with this game going under. *total dominator

October baseball will bring some of everything with an extra amount of quality pitching and defense. Montgomery has become the ace of this Texas staff and he's earned that title down the stretch. His final four starts, a span of 27 innings, have seen him allow only 2 total runs! The last three of those games stayed below the total. Glasnow was crisp last start, striking out nine through five shutout innings. He gave up only two hits in the 5-0 TB win. A playoff veteran, Glasnow is 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA against Texas. Runs will be hard to come by. Go with the Under!

This number, in my estimation, is too low. Entering the weekend,.Baltimore games vs. right-handed starters were averaging 9.2 runs. Boston games vs. right-handers were averaging 9.9. Bradish has been pretty good but he got destroyed the last time that he faced the Red Sox in a game at Baltimore. In fact, he's 1-4 with a 8.13 ERA in 7 starts against Boston. Houck has just been plain bad. He gave up 10 hits in 3 innings of last start. He was on the wrong-sided of an 11-2 loss (against Bradish) against Baltimore less than a month ago. This one sails over! *AL East TOM

Both teams played high scoring games on Sunday. This one will be different. Verlander against Castillo facing each other in a huge game. Talk about a heavyweight fight! These guys are both absolute aces. Verlander can still dominate. His last road start, he allowed one earned run in 7 innings. Castillo has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in five of his past six starts, including each of his past three. His last two home starts both finished with identical 3-2 scores. He held Houston to a single unearned run through 7 innings, back in July. Knowng their teams are in need, Castillo and Verlander both bring their A-Game in this one. Enjoy the old fashioned pitcher's duel.

The Nationals and the White Sox have both been eliminated from the postseason and are starting to play around with their pitching staffs to see what will work for the future.  Probable starter Rutledge for the Nats has one start in the majors to his name and it didn’t go well.  He gave up 7 runs in 3.2 innings of work.   He has bounced around in the minors for 7 teams in the last 4 years with wildly varying degrees of success.  He should be just the remedy the White Sox need to activate their lethargic bats. 

Probable starter Ureno for the White Sox had 5 starts in April, was released by two clubs and now has 2 starts in September.  In his last 5 starts his team has surrendered an average of 9.4 runs.

In their last 7 games the two teams have given up an average total of 11.5 runs/9 innings.  All these numbers point towards that perfect storm of high event baseball.  Make a bowl of popcorn and add up the runs for this over total.

Two very good right-handers meet up today when the D-backs' Kelly faces the Mets' Senga today.  Kelly has been one of the most consistent starters since returning from the IL in July.  He has a 1.42 ERA with 18 K's in his two September starts.  Senga has a 2.82 ERA in his last seven starts.  He faced the Diamondbacks in July, throwing an 8 inning, 1 run gem.  Arizona, at 6-4, has been winning with their pitching.  The offense hasn't managed more than four runs and is averaging less than three in their last six games.  The Mets put up 14 runs in their last two starts against the Diamondbacks, but in their previous five games averaged under three runs.  The Mets have been hitting for power if not for average in the last week; not so the D-backs, who are 25th in the league at .238/.697.  I expect today's game to be low scoring.  Take the Mets and Diamondbacks to stay very low in runs allowed while the starters are in, and hold on for the under.

These two teams were two of the first to be eliminated from the post-season and are wallowing down at the bottom of the standings, doing what they can to make it to the end and set themselves up for next season.  Who would have thought we would find such value in a couple of dumpster fire seasons. 

In their last three head-to-head they have totals of 10, 13 and 13.   Tuesday’s probable starters, Singer for the Royals and Cease for the White Sox started that middle 13 total.  In Cease’s last two starts he has totals of 13 and 15.  Cease had an ERA of 8.07 in August and is at 6.05 in September.  Singer has an ERA of 6.43 for his last 5 starts.

The available bullpens both have ERAs north of 5.50. 

The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs against/ 9 innings and the White Sox have averaged 4.5 runs against/9 innings over their last 7 seven games. 

All these numbers add up to totals well over 9 for this game.  Take the over and enjoy an early high event game.

These two clubs have been involved in some high scoring games in September.  The Twins have been in 4 straight games where the total has gone over.  The Guardians are over for 3 of their last 4 games.  And I really mean over.  The Twins last 4 have averaged a total of 16 runs/game.  The Guardians last 4 have averaged a total of 14.5 runs/game. 

Maybe the probable starters for these two teams will be different though.  Not so fast.  In his last nine starts, Ryan for the Twins has seen 8 out of 9 go over.  And Williams for the Guardians has a 6.97 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

In their last 7 games the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs for/ 9 innings, while the Guardians have averaged 6.9 runs against/ 9 innings.  That makes a total that sure looks like an over.  Or you could use the 5.0 runs against/9 innings the Twins have averaged over their last 7 and the 4.7 runs for/9 innings the Guardians have averaged, and you will still get an awfully over looking total.  Take the over and start counting runs.

The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games.  They kept the score down in their win on Sunday but allowed at least seven runs in the previous four games.  Taijuan Walker starts on Monday, and while he has been steady this year, he still gives up 3 runs on average while pitching around five innings lately.  His ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher on the road, but he has had great run support this season.  Padres' starter, lefty Rich Hill's starts have been very short lately.  He gave up nearly a run an inning in August, not a good look against a Phillies team that is tops in bops over the last two weeks.  Both offenses are strong; the Phillies are .288/.960 OPS and very good against left handed pitching, while the Padres have climbed to .258/.754 lately.  The Phillies swept the Padres in earlier meetings and all games easily went over.  I expect the same result today.  Both starters appear tired at this stage of the season, Hill especially at the ripe old age of 43.  Take the Phillies and Padres to again go over the the total today.

The Rays, challenging for first in their division, have lost 2 close games to the Guardians, after a fine 7-1 run.  They are 18-8 as a road favorite, and hitting well (.277/.820 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Cleveland, often down in the offense stats, has been better than average at .263/.726 in the last week.  Rays' call-up Bradley was effective in the Minors lately, but still has issues with walks and home runs.  Bradley was just 1-4, 7.67 ERA with the  Rays this year,  but Tampa needs help with starters.  Guardians' youngster Curry has now started 5 straight games, with very mixed success.  He threw for just a pair of innings each in his last two starts giving up 9 runs total.  
Tampa especially is very good vs right handers.  The Rays should be ultra-focused today to avoid the sweep and will get their chances against Curry.  Bradley is a bit of a question mark, but did not fare well in the earlier season.  I like the Rays and Guardians to put up some runs today, especially early.  Take the total to go over today.

The Jays and Guardians have played each other five times this year and not one of those games has gone over 7 runs. Jays' lefty Riu looks to have his best stuff back since returning from a long stint on the IL.  He has given up 0 runs in his last 3 starts, averaging around 5 innings per appearance.  He shut out the Guardians over 4 innings last time he faced them.  Left- handed rookie Logan Allen has had a fine first season.  He struggled mid-season but looks to have rallied in August, with a 1.96 ERA for the month.  He held Toronto to 1 run over 5 innings just 3 starts ago.  Both teams have solid bullpens lately.  The Guardians are the worst team in the league against lefties, while the Jays are a poor 28th against everyone in the last 2 weeks.  Take Saturday's game to go under the total again.

The Tigers and Guardians split a double-header on Friday, scoring just 5 and 6 runs total in the two games.  Another low scoring game might be in the cards on Saturday with Manning facing the Guardians' rookie phenom Bibee.  Bibee is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last seven games, and has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than 3 runs in his last 10 appearances against tough competition. Manning starts for the Tigers.  He bounced back with a very fine start after 3 straight rough outings.  He has been much better in away games this season.  The Tigers and Guardians are 21st and 28th vs right handers.  Cleveland is poor against anyone of late with a .236/.644 OPS in the last two weeks.  The under in Cleveland's and Detroit's last ten games is a combined 15-5.  I like the under in this game as well.  Look for a very low total in the early going.  Take the Tigers and Guardians to stay under the total .

Probable pitcher Severino for the Yankees recently called himself the worst pitcher in baseball.  That hasn’t been the case in the recent past as he was an all-star once.  But lately with a 13.50 ERA so far in August and an 11.22 ERA in July he has been horrendous.  Add in a 2.15 WHIP over his last 3 and you have a recipe for lots of runs.  Probable starter Elder for the Braves started out strong but has faltered as of late.  His August ERA is 9.64 so far and his July ERA was 5.96.  In his last 3 starts his WHIP has been 1.347 and his ERA has been 6.06.

At the plate the Braves lead the majors over the last 15 days and all season vs. RHP in avg. and OPS.  The Yankees have been middle of the pack over the last 15 days but have some power at the plate that could cause Elder some grief.  In their last 7 games the Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs for/9 innings and 5.6 runs against/9 innings which in and of itself could lead to a formidable total but when you look at the Braves 8.4 runs for/9 innings and 4.0 runs against/9 innings in their last 7, this could get ugly for the pitchers. 

The Yankees have been 6-4 in their last 10 for overs and the Braves have been 8-2 for overs in their last 10.  This could be a perfect storm for a runaway total.

The 3-7 Mets salvaged a single win in the Braves series, but gave up a massive 33 runs in the three games.  Pittsburgh is 5-5 L10, but has seen the over in seven of ten games, averaging six runs-allowed in their last seven games.  Carrasco was surprisingly good in his last start (two runs over five innings), but based on his record this year, he is no one to rely on for a quality start.  His ERA in July was 7.79 and he gave up a dozen runs in his previous eight plus innings.  He has been especially poor when pitching at home this year.  He'll face rookie right-hander Priester, who has struggled in his first season.  None of his starts have gone over five innings, and he is hovering around a run an inning for the season.  The Mets are struggling with the bats, scoring four runs or less in nine of ten games, but they will get their chances vs Priester.  The Pirates were 10th in OPS over the last week and will have the chance to run up the score if Carrasco reverts to his season's form.  The Mets' bullpen is a disaster lately, the Pirates', merely poor.  Take the Mets and Pirates to go over the total.

After a run-fest yesterday in the Rangers/Giants match up on Saturday, It could be a low scoring game today.  Webb, the Giants' most dependable starter, has been consistent this year, pitching for length with low runs allowed and very good control.  Dunning slipped a bit in July but his last 2 starts have been fine, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings.  The Giants are really struggling to produce runs, batting just .210 with a .590 OPS in the last week.  The Rangers are getting excellent results from their bullpen lately.  They are a formidable offensive team, but like anyone else will struggle against a fine starter.  Look for length and quality from today's starters, and a total similar to Game One of the series.  Play the Under today!

After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays  match-up to be a much lower scoring affair.  The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action.  Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games.  What has he done lately?  Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched.  Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings.  He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month.  Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date.  Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS.  Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well.   I expect a very low scoring game in the early going.  Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings.  Look for the bullpens to hang on.  Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total.

After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less.  Both left-handed starters are on fine runs.  Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts.  Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances.  Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching.  The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense.  I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome.  Take the total to go under on Saturday.

The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.

Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters.  Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP.  Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing.  Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. 

Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days.  The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch.

All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers.  Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays.

Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts.  Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July.  While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching.  The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher.  Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. 

The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them.  At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games.  The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games.  Medina starts for Oakland.  The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings.  He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants.  He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA.  The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising.  The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday.  I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. 

These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately.  Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games.  In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games.

Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading.  Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors.  The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters.  This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out.  At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game.  When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11.  In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3.  All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game.  

The Rangers are allowing a whopping 7.3 runs a game over the last week, and that underwhelming bullpen is part of the problem.   Dunning starts today, and while he is having an impressive season, he has struggled in  two of three starts.  Last time out was his worst start of the year. Musgrove has been very solid, but the Rangers are a formidable offense to reckon with. The Padres are starting to hit, climbing to tenth in OPS over the last week.  Today's total is low, but I am wagering on the total to go over when all is said and done.

Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately.  Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered.  In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA.  It hasn’t been pretty.  The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8.  Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8

For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9.  The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9.  If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8.  Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon.

Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately.  Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.  Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging  6.1 innings.  In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. 

In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS.  The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. 

Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total.  In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds.  Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5.  The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine.

The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning %  than the 9-7 Braves.  A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings.  He has an OP BA of .327 in July.  Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts.  He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July.  Atlanta is  5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week.  The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly  6.14.  Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total.

Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series.  Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date.  Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts.  He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games.  Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date.
With just 7 starts each so far, Friday's pitchers are just hitting their stride(s) at this point. Both starters will very likely pitch effectively for a least five innings.  While the Guardians' bullpen is dependable, KC's is a different story, however Lynch has won two of his last three starts, and offers solid start length. I'll hold my breath re: the Royals' relievers, but I am wagering on the under on Friday.

Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately.  But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. 

Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days.  But in terms of runs neither have produced much.  In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for.  Both those are under the expected line of 9.  On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against.  All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair.

In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0.  The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.  It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under.

These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately.  The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04.  In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort.  In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00.  Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season.  In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. 

But what about the under records for these two teams.  The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road.  In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record.

In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.  The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings.  This looks like another solid total.  Go with the under on this one. 

Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons.  But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June.  Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month.  Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively.  Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing.  He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out.  It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. 

In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9.  In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9.  Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up.  Take the over on this one.

The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week..  They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday.  The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00.  The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief.  Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited .  He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth.  Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. 

Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens.  Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday.  Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total.

The Tigers have won 3 of 4 games and averaged 7 runs in those wins.  That is quite an improvement for a team enmired in the cellar on offense this season.  Eight of their last ten games have gone over. The Royals are allowing plenty of runs lately; over 6 on average in their last 7 games.  They are very poor as a road underdog and just 2-13 in June.  Jordan Lyles has had an abysmal year to date, the consistent victim of big innings.  At 0-11 and with an era of well over 6, quality starts have been few and far between.  Young Tigers starter Olson surprised in his first two appearances since a June call up but his last start is probably truer to form, when he allowed 6 ER in 3+ innings. He struggled seriously in Triple A this season.  Both teams have an opportunity to put up some runs today.  I m wagering on a high total.  Take KC and the Tigers to go over.

Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons.  They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams.  It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late.  In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period.  Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5.  Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17!

The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season.  Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined.  The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters.  It all adds up to a total over 10  Take the over for the win.

Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today.  Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high.  Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA.  The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business.  Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games.  We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts.  the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again.  Take the Under this evening. 9*s!

Probable pitchers Gilbert (Mariners) and Musgrove (Padres) have had solid results lately.  Musgrove, an NL all star last season, is coming back from a toe injury and is rounding back into form.  He has surrendered 0 and 1 earned runs in his last two starts.  Gilbert has a WHIP of .98 and his ERA has been dropping in May.  His last start against the hard hitting Yankees wasn’t great but the two before that were solid.  Both pitchers should have success against hitters that are struggling.  The Padres have hit .213 against RHP in their last 10 while the Mariners have only hit .197.

In terms of defense both teams have kept opponents’ OPS below .700. The Padres' bullpen has been solid, the Mariners', less so but Gilbert should last long enough to keep it from being an issue.

The Padres have been under 4 of their last 5 games, and Mariners have been under for 2 of their last 4.  Both teams are near the bottom ¼ of the majors in avg and OPS.  All of this should go together nicely to keep the total under on Tuesday night.

The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday.  The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts.  Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start.  The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league.
Cleveland's offense has been a disappointment all season.  They struggle particularly vs right-handers.  The Twins, at 25th in OPS, have their issues with lefties.  Buxton, Correa and Gallo are all listed as questionable for Saturday, a possible big hit to Minnesota's offense.  Look for another low-scoring game and take the Under on Saturday.

The Guardians’ Bibee and the Twins’ Lopez are two young pitchers with very solid results lately.  Since being called up April 26th star prospect Bibee has been meeting the high expectations the Guardians have had for him.  With a sparkling 2.88 ERA and an improving 1.08 WHIP he should have a more impressive win/loss record but he just can’t seem to get any run support from the light hitting Guardians.  In his last outing against the Cards he only allowed 2 hits but was only supported with one run and so he took the loss.  Lopez has racked up 81 SO and if you take out the one game against the powerful Dodgers his improving ERA in May would be 2.77.  Against the Guardians’ 29th best OPS in the majors, Lopez should lock things down well.  The Twins are also in the bottom third of the majors for average and OPS.

Both bullpens have been excellent lately.  In their last 10 Cleveland’s relievers have a 1.31 ERA and in their last 5 it is a miniscule .47.  The Twins bullpen has excelled lately too with a 2.23 ERA in their last 10.

All of the above, combined with the Guardians’ over/under in their last 10 being 2-8 and the Twins’ over/under being 3-7 in their last 10 (one game was over by .5), point clearly to a low scoring affair.  Go with the under to start June right.

A pair of strong young right handers face off in Houston tonight.  The Astros' Brown has been sharp lately, allowing just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last two appearances.  Varland has also been effective for the Twins, giving up 3 or less runs in his last three starts.  The two teams are similar on paper; first and second in runs-allowed this season, and both with middling offenses.  Houston, now 7-3, definitely has the hotter hand lately.  The Twins are sub-.500 on the road, have struggled in and against Houston, and are having difficulty producing runs lately, scoring three or less in six of nine games.  Both teams have very good relief pitching, and both starting pitchers have seen the total go under consistently in recent games.  With Houston a heavy favorite, the total is the best wager today.  Take the Twins and Astros to go under.

The Reds are a very poor road team but they've still managed to take the first two games of the series from the hapless Cubs.  They have feasted on Cubs pitching and also put up a ten spot vs the Cardinals, putting them near the top in offense over the last week.  Reds' starter Ashcraft started the season on fire, but has gone very very cold lately, with an ERA of 10.03 in May.  Cubs' left-handed veteran Smyly has been pretty sharp this year, winning three game in May, with a 2.63 ERA for the month.  The problems will come once Smyly leaves, as everyone seems to be teeing off on the Cubs' relievers.  The Reds have had great success vs left-handed pitching lately.

No one enjoys being swept and the Cubs aren't hitting badly at the moment.  They'll get there chances if Ashcraft continues to struggle.  It is quite likely that the Reds will run up the score in the later innings.  Sunday's total is very average.  I'm wagering on the over in this one.

Two young future star right handers face off when Keller meets Kirby on Friday.  Keller has been exceptional lately.  His K to BB  ratio is an amazing 18-1, with a very low WHIP to go with it.  Mariners' Kirby has impressed as well, pitching late into games with a low ERA in May.  Neither the Pirates nor the Mariners are hitting especially well in general, nor are they getting much recent  success vs right handed pitching.  The M's have a very good bullpen; the Pirates should get plenty of innings out of Keller. Take this game to go under the total.

The Braves and Rangers went Over the total on Monday with the former doing ALL of the lifting, scoring 12 runs in a complete beatdown of the AL West leaders.

Today, I’m looking at another Over, only this time the number of runs scored should be a bit more evenly distributed. 

The Braves are 16-6 on the road where they average 5.8 runs per game. They’ll face Dane Dunning, who has been better than expected so far (filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom) and a Rangers’ bullpen that they beat up on as well yesterday. It was five 2-run homers for Atlanta in the series opener.

For the Braves’ sake, they better hope they are swinging the bats well again. Because starter Jared Shuster has given up four runs each of his first two starts and neither time he made it a full five innings.

Texas is the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 10*

It is hard to believe, but the Mighty Padres have gone under in 10 straight games.  The Royals are 6-3 below par in their last nine.  Th Padres just plain can't hit right-handers and they face a competent one in Keller on Monday.  He has sandwiched a pair of fine outings around a dog of a start vs the A's.  (It is peculiar and frustrating how many times a good pitcher will struggle against such a poor team as the A's).  Keller is wild, but the Padres are hardly the most patient of teams.  The Padres will run out Wacha who is looking more and more like the pitcher of last year, with three straight quality appearances.  The Padres' pen has been very good and the Royals surprisingly competent lately.  Take Monday's game to go under the total.

All of a sudden the Royals can hit.  And win games at home.  They have taken three of four from the lowly White Sox who have been just average in offense and very poor in the starting and relief pitching departments. Singer will start for the Royals.  Much was expected this year but quality starts have been rare.  The ERA (8.00+) and opposition BA (.300+) says it all.  Clevinger will start for the White Sox.  He has had mixed results this season, with two of his last three starts of the poor to fair department. He has not pitched well on the road this year.
The bullpens are both in the dumpster this season, with the Sox' particularly poor lately.  The Royals have scored 23 runs in three games against the White Sox, but the White Sox will likely get their chances on Thursday.  I expect another high-scoring game. Take the total to go over.

Two fine  starters square off in today"s Cardinals/Cubs match. The Cards' Lefty Montgomery has struggled in just one of seven starts this season.  He has been especially tough lately allowing just three runs in eighteen + innings. Definitely not a victim of the long ball , he has allowed just two dingers  to date.  The Cubs' Steele has, if anything, been even better.  His 1.45 ERA ranks with anyone in the league.  Neither offense has been particularly successful against left-handers lately, and the bullpens (especially the Cubs') have been very solid.  Take the Cubs and Cardinals to go under the total today! 9*!

The Twins and Guardians both start solid pitchers on Sunday.  Joe Ryan is 5-0, and off a 6 inning shutout in his last appearance.  Quantrill also had a fine start last time out, and both teams are getting quality relief pitching.  The Guardians have the worst offense in the league, and while they "broke out" for four runs on Saturday, they have otherwise managed just nine runs in their previous five games.  The Twins aren't hitting well either at just .204 over their last 10 games.  The under is a result in nine of the last ten Guardians games, and is also 11-4 when these two teams meet.  Let's not buck the trend today.  Take the Under on Sunday.

The Red Sox' bats are redhot and I am not convinced that Falter (5.01 ERA) or the the Phillies Bullpen (5.77 ERA L10) will be able to cool them off.  Boston is hitting a scorching .320 collective BA. and roughed up some very good Jays starters in their last series sweep.  While Kluber has looked better in his last two starts, his overall numbers are not strong. The Phillies gave up 36 runs in their series against the Dodgers.  Although the number is high, here is a great opportunity for a "total" victory today.  Take the Sox and Phillies to go over the total today.

Jays' starter Manoah finally got on track in his last game and Castillo, the Mariners' ace, has been exceptional all season, with an ERA of 1.90 over 23 innings.  He has not been getting great run support from the Seattle offense.  In fact both of these teams have been underachieving with the bats.  The Jays have been hitting well in recent games, but  haven't faced a good pitcher since Cole (3-2 result).  Seattle is hitting below .200 as a team over the last ten games.  With a healthy total available today, I am wagering on the Under.

The A's have given up 24 runs in their last three games while scoring 23.  Their starter Fujinami, has given up nearly 2 runs an inning to date.  The A's sport the league's worst  also runs-allowed average to date.  Mets' starter Carrasco has struggled in the early season, also allowing more than a run an inning in his first two appearances. The A's bullpen will likely be very little help.

On offense, the Mets should have power, they just haven't shown it very often yet.  They are breaking out as I write, leading the A's 11-5 in just the fifth inning.  I am a believer in a very high score total in Saturday's match-up .  Jump on the over, and quickly.  After Friday's score this total could rise.

The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight.  With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out.

.  He likely faces  Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season.  He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher.

Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest.  The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment.  They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense,  a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season.  It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one.

The Astros are up a game against the Yankees and send out left-hander Valdez today. Valdez struggled in two of his last 3 regular season starts before bouncing back with a five inning shut-out vs the Phillies. He faced the Yankees once this season, giving up three runs over 6 innings. Valdez held the Mariners to 2 runs over 5+ innings in his post season start, but struggled big time in 2021 post season.

Severino was tough down the stretch, giving up just 3 runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. He faced the Astros twice this season allowing 3 and 2 runs in a pair of 6 inning starts. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5+ innings to the Guardians in his post season start this year.

The Astros are hitting reasonably well, especially for power. The Yankees’ bats are underachieving to date but were very tough on left-handers this year. I lost (barely) on the over yesterday, but am back with it today. I expect both teams’ very potent offenses to have some success. Wager on the over.

The two bye teams left standing meet in Houston for game 1 of the ALCS . The Astros are well rested, facing a tired Yankees team, and will start Verlander on regular rest. Verlander was uncharacteristically poor in his divisional start, lasting just 4 innings and giving up 6 runs. His previous start was a shut-out of the Phillies, and he was great down the stretch.

Tallon starts for the Yankees. He had a good September at 2-1, 3.23 ERA, but did give up 6 runs in 5+ innings against the Astros in June. He was also hit very hard in a bullpen appearance in post season action.

These are two hard-hitting offenses, and while they haven’t broken out in the play-offs, the total is still “pair of aces” low. I ‘m not betting on Taillon on Wednesday, and would like to see a little more of Verlander before counting on him for his usual stuff. The Astros will likely have multiple innings against a hard-worked and injury-ridden bullpen. The Yankees weren’t much for average in the post season, but have 9 home runs to date. Take the Yankees and Astros to go over in game one.

The Braves are on the edge of an early exit on the road against the Phillies.  The ageless Charlie Morton starts today, but he has not fared well down the stretch.  The Phillies roughed him up for 6 runs in 4+ innings in late September.  He was luckier but no better against the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in another short start.  His road starts have been very poor with an ERA of 5.72.
Syndergaard pitched a single successful inning in relief in game 2.  His season since joining the Phillies has been very average with an ERA in the mid-fours, although he bounced back with 7 innings of shutout ball in a start and a a long relief effort in his last 2 appearances.
The Braves have an edge in offense and relief pitching, but just haven't shown it yet.  The Phillies have the momentum and the crowd, but I can't count the Braves out today.  Syndergaard is not the Thor of old, and Morton has struggled.  I still don't trust the Phillies pen, and they may have to be relied on for multiple innings.  Take the over today. 9*!

A couple of very good veterans meet up in game with Darvish facing left hander Kershaw today.  Darvish threw off concerns about past playoff woes and tossed a gem against the Mets in the Wildcard series.  He was wickedly good in September with a 1.85 ERA for the month.  The Dodgers have seen a lot of Darvish this year, and he has been very good in three of the four starts, while struggling with a 5 run effort in an earlier start.  Darvish is better pitching at home and can struggle in the first inning, although we didn't see it in his last appearance vs the Dodgers resulting in a 7 inning 2 hit shutout.
Kershaw has been equally sharp, with an ERA of 1.59 in his last three starts, and hasn't given up more than 2 runs since returning from the IL in early August.  He has pitched under 130 innings this year, and is well rested, so we should see vintage Kershaw today.  He has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings against the Padres in two previous appearances this season.
The Dodgers were the league's leading offense this year, but weren't quite as dominant down the stretch.  They got to Clevinger early yesterday but were held in check by the Padres' pen.  The Dodgers have a fine bullpen, also well rested at the moment.  
I expect solid outings from both starters today. This could be Darvish's finest season if he can make a solid play off run, but it is hard to argue with Kershaw.  The Dodgers' bullpen is formidable and well rested. The Padres' relievers shut down the Dodgers last night, and Darvish can pitch for real length.  Take Game 2 to go under the total.

The Mets and Padres are the only team to go to a wild card third game. Both have solid starters on the mound, but unlike the other series, we have seen more runs scored than expected to date. Mets’ right-hander Bassitt has had a fine season for the Mets, but has had a few tough starts mixed in with the good stuff this year. One was against the Padres early in the season, although he bounced back nicely the next time he faced them. He was also roughed up by the Braves in his last start, giving up 4 runs in just 2+ innings.

Musgrove has been solid for the Padres down the stretch, giving up just one run in three home appearances, after some mixed results in August and early September. He face the Mets just once this year, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, not hi finest effort.

The Mets finally got the Padres monkey off their back last light, getting to the bullpen and putting up 7 runs. They are a very hot hitting team lately, and are tough on right-handed pitching. Honestly, this game could go either way tonight, however we have seen a steady diet of overs from both teams lately including games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for that trend to continue, and take the over.

The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety.  The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late.  The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble.  The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers.  Take this game to go under! 9*!

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.

It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander.  Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September.   Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.

Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen,  as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games.  The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.

The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching.  4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under.  The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue.  Take the under again today.

The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them.  They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment,  climbing to 7th in the league in the last week.  Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late.  All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning,  The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.

The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled.  Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each.  The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.

The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low.  Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.

The Red Sox' and Rangers' Thursday game featured both teams' strengths and weaknesses; poor pitching, especially in relief, and solid hitting. Friday's game may be similar.  The Rangers start left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel.  Keuchel spent a month in the wilderness before emerging with the Rangers, but it hasn't helped his pitching.  He allowed 7 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings in his return start.

Pivetta has been a trooper for the Red Sox this year and has an ERA of 4.12 over his last 7 starts.  He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings.  He has an ERA of close to a run higher when pitching in Fenway, and doesn't usually go for more than 5 innings. 

The Red Sox are hitting very well of late, and especially vs. left handers.  The Rangers are scoring runs in bunches.  Both pens struggled on Thursday, and will probably have plenty of innings to work on Friday.  Thursday's game ended with 17 runs scored, 10 of them in the late innings.  Keuchel is not a good bet for a quality start.  A similar outcome wouldn't surprise me in game two of the series.  Take the Rangers and Sox to go over.

The hard-hitting Rangers have lost 4 straight, and the culprit has been pitching, both starting and relief. They now face the Red Sox and the green monster, a place where they have not been generally successful. The 3-7 Sox return home, where they are under .500 this year. Both these teams are hitting very well and are top five in offense over the last two weeks. The Rangers are hitting left handers particularly well of late.

Well-aged veteran lefty Rich Hill starts for the Sox today. It is hard to see past his last start, a 7 inning gem of a shutout, but this has not been the norm for Hill this year. He regularly pitches 5 innings, and may pay the price after his long last outing. I expect less innings and more runs today.

Glenn Otto starts for the Rangers. Otto has been quite sharp in August with a 2.93 ERA for the month, but reverted to past form in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5innings. The Sox roughed him up badly for his worst start of the year back in May.

Both bullpens have been awful lately; The Rangers has been overused as well. The total is relatively high today but this is to be expected in Fenway Park. Take the Rangers and Sox to get their hacks in and the total to climb over.  9*!

The Royals beat the Sox last night in a bit of a slugfest, and have had good success against Chicago lately. Another win might not be in the offing today. The Royals have not been getting very good pitching of late. Lefty Bubic was on a bit of a run, but that ended abruptly three starts ago. Since then, he has given up 14 runs in just 13 innings. He has been hit very hard (.351) for the month.

He faces right hander Lance Lynn today. After a late start to the season, Lynn seems finally to be rounding into form, with an ERA of 2.83 L7.

The Sox have lost 4 straight games, and their bullpen has struggled to hold a lead. The Royals have been hitting extremely well recently but their bullpen has, if anything, been worse than the Sox’. The wind is blowing out in the Windy City today. Take this game to go over. 9*!

The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause.  They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today.  Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances.  With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today.  The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way.  About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen.
Musgrove starts for the Padres.  He is 0-4, 4.42 in his last 7 starts, a considerable drop from his early season results.  He is off a very short start, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs, only 2 earned.
The Giants are a demoralized team. They have lost 6 straight and are out of the play offs for all intents and purposes.  I like the total today. The number is based more on the reputation of these two pitchers and not on recent performances, especially Webb's.  Add to that, some rough performances from the Padres' bullpen (ERA 5.60 recently), and you have a recipe for an over.  Take advantage of an unexpectedly low total and jump on the over today.

The Marlins held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 win on Saturday, but it took a complete game effort from Alcantara to accomplish it. The 4-6 Marlins start another fine young pitcher on Sunday. Edward Cabrera has just 7 starts under his belt. He has had four appearances in August and has yet to give up a run. He has given up just 8 hits over 22 innings.

The Dodgers’ Urias has been almost as effective and very consistent. He has allowed 2 runs just once in his last seven games; otherwise it has been 1 or zero.

Miami doesn’t hit at all well and their bullpen is struggling big time. The Dodgers obviously hit very well, but like anyone else, struggle vs top pitching. They have yet to face Cabrera, an early advantage to the pitcher. The Dodgers’ pen has not been its’ usual effective self lately. I expect the total will be low in the early going on Sunday, but not by the day's end. It is a very low total, and I can’t see the Marlin’s pen holding back the Dodgers’ offensive tide in the later innings.  The Dodgers pen allowed 4 runs in each of Thursday's and Fridays games.  Take Sunday's total to go over. 9*!

Two good starters face each other when the Cubs and Brewers meet on Friday. Both teams have struggled on offense, especially the Brewers at .176/.595 over the last two weeks.  The Brewers lost big in their last two games and are just 8-13 in August.  The Cubs are over .500 in August, and are hitting a little better than the Brew crew, although they have struggled against left-handed pitching.

Cubs' right-hander Steele hasn't had much success in the win column but he has been terrific elsewhere, with a paltry 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts.  He has thrown a pair of 6 inning shutouts in his last 2 appearances, one of which was against the Brewers.

Lefty Freddy Peralta is just 4 starts back from an extended stay on the IL, and each start has shown improvement.  He held the Cubs to 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start.

The Cubs' bullpen owes Steele a good outing or two, the Brewers' pen is usually very dependable, and everyone has had a day off.  The total is low but I expect this game to end even lower.  Take the Under  between the Cubs and Brewers. 9*!

The Diamondbacks were swept by a tough Cardinals team but bounced back on Tuesday. The bats have been nothing special, but at least considerably better than their opponents on Wednesday. The Royals are just 3-7, hitting very poorly, while scoring less than three runs in 8 of 10 games.

Both starters have been performing very well of late. Galen has been as good as anyone lately, with three straight 7 inning shutouts. And an ERA of 1.17 in his last 7 games. The Royals right-hander Brady Singer has also shone, allowing just 3 runs in his last 3 games, while pitching into the 6th or 7th.

Both bullpens have had some question marks lately, but the D-backs’ relievers have held leads for Gallen in his last two starts, and the Royals’ relievers were in tough against the Rays. With 2 excellent starters pitching for length and a pair of relatively weak hitting teams, I am wagering on the Under on Wednesday.  9.0*!

The Mariners are on a tear, with a 7-3 record lately, and post-season a distinct possibility this year. They are hitting much better, scoring 29 runs in their last 3 games, and have a fine bullpen. Gilbert, today’s starter has struggled of late allowing 16 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. He gave up 4 runs to the A’s in June. The good news is today’s opposition can’t seem to hit anyone well let alone a right-hander.

The A’s are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, .212, .688 OPS lately, and woeful at home. Today’s starter Kaprielian, was exceptional in July, but has slowed down this month. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in August, and his starts are seldom over 5 innings. He has a good and a poor start vs the M’s this year. The A’s pen has been competent lately with an ERA of around four.

The Mariners have a very good record against the A’s and are a very solid road team this year. The total today is very low, reflecting the A’s poor offense as much as today’s starters. Gilbert’s latest performances are an issue, and Kaprielian has not been flawless lately. With the M’s swinging very hot bats, I’m wagering on the over today.

The Angels are off a 1-0 win over the Tigers, with very long starts for both teams. Neither of these teams is hitting well at the moment although the Angels just had Trout return from the IL. A pair of Left handers face off in Saturday’s game. Detmers has been very good for the Angels lately, with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts. The Tigers start Tyler Alexander, a former reliever who has been effective with five straight short starts, allowing no more than 3 run per appearance.

Both offenses have been better vs left handers of late. The bullpens have been poor (Angels) and terrible (Tigers) lately. The total for Saturday’s match is low. I don’t expect 9 and 7 inning superlative starts again on Saturday. The total may be low early, but look for the final score to go over by the end of 9 innings. Take the over. 9*!

Generally, when Arizona and San Fransisco meet, you don’t see much in the way of offense. Another under is likely, with two fine starters, both off a pair of excellent appearances, meet up. Gallen, 4-0 2.94 in his last 7 starts, faced the Giants twice in July, allowing just 3 runs over 11+ innings. Webb, off an 8 inning shutout vs the Pirates, also shut out the D-backs at home in July. Both pitchers will likely pitch deep into the game. Gallen pitches well on the road, and especially well in day games.  Webb is particularly sharp at home.

The Diamondbacks’ batting has fallen off lately, and the Giants, while hitting well, have had little success against Gallen and, if needed, the Arizona bullpen. Look for another of their meetings to go under today.

To no one’s surprise, the A’s are the bottom dwellers of the AL, and haven’t won in 8 games. They might have a chance in today’s game. A’s starter Kaprielian has been effective lately with an ERA of 2.35 in his last 7 starts. This will be his third time facing the Rangers in a month. He shut them out once and allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the second time.

He faces right hander Otto, 0-4, 4.66 in his last seven starts. He has been better in August, giving up just 4 runs over 2 starts. The A’s hit him fairly hard when they faced him with 4 runs scored in 4+ innings, a large haul for them.

The Rangers are hot off a winning series vs the Mariners, are hitting the ball well, and getting better than average relief lately. The A’s are managing just .196 vs. right handers. Both of Kaprielian’s last two starts have gone under. With Otto giving up just 4 runs in August, I expect another low scoring game today. Take the A’s and Rangers to go under the total.  9*.

With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits.

At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings.

Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday.

Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under.  9*.

The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting.

He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching.

The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under.

The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing.

Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately.

The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home.

Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over.

While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent.  The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on.  He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched.  He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season.  His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle.

In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games.  Saturday's total is generous.  Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late.  Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*.

The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp.

The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average.

Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA.

Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday.

The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over.

A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles.

Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length.

The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month.

While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres.

Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*.

It is hard to know what to think about the Rays this season. They’ve lost three straight, scoring just 6 runs total. This is a team seriously depleted by injury on the offense and pitching sides, with their usually exceptional bullpen not quite up to standard. They are not particularly good on the road this season, however they run out their ace McClananhan (10-3, 1.71). He hasn’t given up more than one run per 6 or 7 inning start in his last five appearances, with a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 8 to 1 in June and July.

The 6-4 Orioles are impressing lately, especially at home. They beat the Yankees in their last series and downed the Rays last night. The O’s are getting solid offense and fine support from their relievers lately. Watkins pitches on Tuesday, His season blew up in May, but since returning to the big leagues he has put up 4 straight quality starts, giving up just 3 runs total. He has held opposing batters to a .177 BA in July.

Nobody has solved either of these two pitchers recently, and at least one team is struggling on offense. McClanahan is good for length and the Orioles’ pen is very good lately. I am taking the under today, and so should you!

The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July.

The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start.

We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9*

The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday.

Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening.

The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats.

Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday.

The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35.

The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late.

I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under.

The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately.

The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball.

Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars.

Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count.

The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole.

The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road.

It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low.  This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals.  Take the over on Sunday>

The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half.

We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total.

He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard.

The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series.

It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season.

Berrios is the big question tomorrow.  Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each.  Take the Total to go over on Sunday.  9 stars.

Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total.

His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts.

The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games.

Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly.  I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over.  Take the total to go over 6.5

Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light?

The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under.

Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” 

Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games.

The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue.

Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. 

Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today.

Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400.

But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. 

The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week.

Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! 

\The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday.

Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season. 

The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game.

Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits.

Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well.

Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one.

The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians.

The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins.

Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching.

I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy!

Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings.

The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19!

Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under.