I like the Under on Sunday Night Baseball as we should get a pitchers duel between Adam Wainwright for St. Louis and Mike Leake for Cincinnati.  Both come in having pitched very well all season long, Wainwright in particular.  After the first two games of this series both found a way to sneak Over the total, this one shouldn't feature many runs.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Wainwright - He is coming off a career best outing where he allowed only one hit in a complete game effort.   His 1.85 ERA ranks right near the top of the National League and he's allowed two runs or less in all but two of his starts this year.  Over his last three starts, he has a 1.17 ERA and a 0.696 WHIP.  Of the 10 times he's pitched this season, the opponent has not scored a single run in five of those games!

2.  Leake -  Despite being winless over his last six starts, it's not like he's pitched poorly.  His ERA is 2.89 going back to April 15th and over his last four starts, it's 1.89.  He's allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and four of his last five have stayed Under the total.

3.  X-Factor -  The reason for Leake not having more victories is the fact Cincinnati never seems to score for him.  In each of his last five starts, they've failed to score more than four runs for the entire game.

Selection:  The play is Under St. Louis-Cincinnati (10*)

I like the Over tonight as the Mets and Dodgers open this three-game series.  While the home side has been struggling big time at the plate and is going against Josh Beckett, the total is just too low for a pair of teams that more often than not are capable of giving up a lot of runs.  Twice in the last four games, the Dodgers have allowed 13 or more runs.   The Mets are 5-2-1 Over the last eight games despite their lack of hitting.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Raul Montero  -  In his first start, Montero allowed two home runs, which cost him in a 4-0 loss to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees.  There were reports that he was tipping his pitches, which isn't a good sign going forward, especially against a Top 10 offense like the Dodgers.

2.   Dodgers When Favored - When favored on the money line, the Dodgers are 21-12-1 Over this season.

3. X-Factor -   When you get past Beckett, you have a Dodgers' bullpen that has been very poor on the road this season.  They have a 5.47 ERA and 1.740 WHIP.   They've blown three saves in 11 chances and are allowing more than two runs per appearance.   Brian Wilson should be singled out for specific blame.

Selection:   The play is Over Los Angeles-New York (10*)

This is an Over play for Mets-Nationals this afternoon.  Yesterday's game was a 5-2 final in favor of Washington, so we'll need just one more run today to make this a winning bet.  Fortunately, I don't think Saturday's starting pitching matchup is as strong, plus at least the Mets were able to put runs on the board yesterday.  Prior to scoring two times in the top of the fifth, they had gone 22 consecutive innings without a runner crossing the plate.  Overall, it was their ninth straight loss to Washington.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Bartolo Colon - Making the Mets' job even tougher today is the fact they have Colon on the hill.  In eight starts, his ERA is 5.84 and things have only progressively gotten worse.  He's allowed seven runs in two of his last three starts, including the last one, which was against the Yankees.  He's already given up eight home runs this season, including a grand slam vs. the Yankees.  All of last year, Colon allowed just 14 home runs.

2.  Dominance over the Mets - As I mentioned before, Washington has now won nine in a row vs. the Mets.  They have scored 58 runs in those nine wins, which works out to roughly 6.5 per game.  All we need is SOMETHING from the Mets in this game in order for the Over to cash.

3.  X-Factor - Gio Gonzalez has not looked good his last four starts with a 5.16 ERA.  He lasted only 4 1/3 in his last start, giving up seven runs and nine hits.

Selection:  The play is Over New York-Washington (10*)

I like the Over this afternoon as Atlanta takes on St. Louis.  Yesterday's game was 5-2 in favor of the Cardinals and we'll need one more run scored today to make this a winning bet.  Given the way the Braves have been scoring, or should I say haven't been scoring, lately, that run would likely need to come from the home team.   I think they'll have their chances against Atlanta starter Harang, who was shelled the last time he started on the road.  Yesterday saw them score five runs, the first time since August of last year that Ervin Santana had allowed that many.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Control Issues -  The Cardinals will go with Shelby Miller in this game and if there has been one problem with him all year, it's been walking batters.  In every start this year, but one, he has walked at least three batters.  Ironically, that one start was against Harang and Atlanta.  But the fact remains that Miller's walk rate of 5.4 per nine innings remains the worst in all of baseball.  Overall, he has 27 BB's in 8 starts.   That's a big reason for his poor WHIP and the Braves should have some added opportunities for baserunners in this game.

2.  Harang On the Road - His last start outside of Turner Field was a disaster as he allowed 9 runs and 10 hits in less than five innings of work.  He does not have a strong history against the Cardinals with his 14 career losses the most against any one opponent.

3. X-Factor -   Miller is typically not lasting very long in his starts, averaging just 5 2/3 innings.  That's a problem for many reasons, one of them that St. Louis' bullpen has an ERA north of 4.00.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Atlanta-St. Louis (10*)

I like the Under tonight as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks renew pleasantries.  While its true that Arizona's pitching staff has stunk most of the year, they've gotten substantially better after a dreadful April and the Dodgers just aren't hitting much right now.   Los Angeles will rely on Zack Greinke, who of course is very good and I expect him to have little difficulty in facing this Diamondbacks' lineup.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Greinke -  Through eight starts, he has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.147 WHIP.   The most runs he's allowed in any start is two.  That obviously gives us alot to work with here.  If we go back to the end of last season, he has gone 20 consecutive starts where he's allowed three runs or less.  That's a record in the post "dead ball" era.   Greinke has started twice against Arizona this year, giving up just 2 runs in more than 11 innings of work and the last five times he's faced them have seen the Diamonbacks hit just .188 as Greinke's ERA is 1.72.   

2.  Arizona Offense - Scoring just four runs the last two games, its not like the Diamonbacks are doing much at the plate recently.  The Under has cashed in 4 of their last 5 games.

3.  X-Factor -  This will be the 9th meeting of the year between these National League West rivals.   Arizona has lost all five at home and overall the Dodgers' starting rotation has gone 6-0, posting a 1.50 ERA.

Selection:  This is a Under play on Los Angeles-Arizona (10*)

The Mets and Yankees went Over in yesterday's opener with the road team winning 9-7.  Regardless of who wins tonight, I'll be anticipating a similar score as the Mets are hitting all of a sudden and the Yankees have collected double digit hits in four of their last five games as well.   The Mets have now gone Over in three straight games while the Yankees have done them two better at five straight.  Only one of those didn't see at least nine total runs scored.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Mets' Heating Up at the Plate - In their last two games, the Mets have collected 30 hits, including a season-high 16 on Sunday.  Five of those were home runs - four of them coming last night - and another five were doubles.  They shouldn't have too much to worry about tonight going up against Vidal Nuno, who has a 7.00 ERA in two home starts.

2.  Yankees Too - The Bronx Bombers have scored no fewer than four runs in any of their last six.  They are averaging 5.0 the last seven.  Mets' starter Zach Wheeler comes in with a 5.06 ERA in four road starts this season, a number that came down after his last start despite it being a loss.   

3. X-Factor -   The Mets have scored 21 runs total in their last three games at Yankees Stadium.  

Selection:  This is an Over play on Mets-Yankees (10*)

These teams have combined to score eight and nine runs respectively in the first two games of this series and I'll call for even more scoring as they finish things up at Miller Park this afternoon.  Given the Brewers surprising start, it's pretty amazing to find that they are only scoring 3.2 runs/game at home with a .226 batting average.  Then again, they do have a better record on the road.   However, they were able to pound out 10 hits in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, who have now gone Over in three straight games.  Take the Over here too.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Matt Garza - Today's starting pitcher from the Brewers seems to think he's better than he actually is.  Over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 5.62.  That has a lot to do with allowing five runs in just three innings at St. Louis on April 30th.  He's been much better at home this year, but his career numbers vs. the Yankees are not very good.  Before tossing a quality start against them last year, he had an ERA of 4.78 his previous nine times facing the Pinstripes.

2.  David Phelps -  The Yankees started was better than expected filling in for the suspended Michael Pineda against the Angels on Monday.  But as a starter his ERA is 4.28 lifetime, so I wouldn't be counting on a similar performance today.

3.  X-Factor -  On the road, the Yankees allow 4.6 runs/game.  This has a lot to do with a bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA away from home.

Selection:  This is an Over play on New York-Milwaukee (10*)

The Tigers are a hot team right now, winners of seven straight to be exact, and scored 11 runs yesterday in a rout of the Houston Astros.  I don't see any reason why once again they can't send this game Over the total again by themselves.  (I'd like to take Detroit to win this game obviously, but with the money line being so high, the risk doesn't outweigh the reward).   Astros starter Brad Peacock has a penchant for giving up unearned runs due to the highest walk rate per nine innings among qualifying pitchers.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Tigers' Offensive Surge - Since April 29th, the team is averaging a strong 6.9 runs/game. They've scored eight or more runs in four of the last five games, peaking with yesterday's output where they had 18 hits.  They've recorded at least 12 hits in four of the last five games as well.   Miguel Cabrera has led the way with a .396 batting average and 1.041 OPS the last 12 games following an uncharacteristic slow start to the season.  

2.  Astros Pitching - Bad enough is the fact Peacock is walking an average of seven batters per nine innings.   But the Houston bullpen is also a mess right now with a MLB worst 6.24 ERA having allowed 15 runs over its last 11 innings of work.  

3. X-Factor -  The Tigers have averaged greater than seven runs/game against the Astros since Houston became an American League team.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Houston-Detroit (10*).

This likely will not end up being a pleasant series for an already beleaguered Arizona pitching staff which has given up the most runs in all of baseball.  The Diamondbacks got a bit of a reprieve over the weekend when they faced off against the worst offensive team in all of baseball, the San Diego Padres.  But the league leading Brewers will take no mercy on them.  After scoring three runs or less in five straight games, Milwaukee should get its offense back on track.  Arizona should also be able to score some runs tonight, thus I look for the game to go Over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Matt Garza - The Brewers' starting pitcher recently claimed that playing for the Cubs cost him about 30 wins.  That's laughable and I wonder what excuse(s) he will start coming up with now that he's 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA this year for a first place team.  He allowed five runs in three innings in his last start at St. Louis. He's now allowed at least four runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.

2.  Mike Bolsinger - I have little confidence in either of tonight's starters as for Arizona we have Bolsinger, who has twice allowed four or more runs while going five innings or less in just three starts.   His ERA and WHIP is even worse than that of Garza.

3. X-Factor:  Because of the woeful pitching, Arizona is 20-11-3 Over in all games this season.

Selection:    This is an Over play on Arizona-Milwaukee (10*).

After allowing six or more runs in six of seven games, Twins pitching made a major rebound over the weekend against Kansas City, but I don't look for that to last.  Toronto's lineup facing Phil Hughes could put this game over on its own, but when you also factor in the fact Minnesota scored 21 runs themselves in the three games vs. the Royals, you get the feeling that we could have a game similar to yesterday's Pirates-Reds slugfest (hopefully minus the rain).   Go with the Over in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hughes - It has not been a good start for him in Minnesota.  He has failed to last longer than five innings in either of his two outings and both times allowed four runs.  Both of those games went way Over the total too as there 30 combined runs have been scored.  Having a career ERA north of 5.00 vs. Toronto doesn't help either.  Look for Hughes to give up plenty of runs again tonight.  

2. Plenty of Ammo  - Toronto had season highs in runs (11) and hits (17) in their last game as they took the series from Baltimore.  Minnesota is actually #4 in all of baseball right now as they've scored 67 times, but they are still barely outscoring opponents, 5.6 to 5.3 per game.  With an average of over 10 runs scored in their games, Over is the way to go with the Twins.

3. X-Factor -  While he missed much of 2013 due to injury, Brandon Morrow comes into this game on an incredible Over streak.  His last nine starts have all gone Over with at least nine runs scored in every game.   The average number of runs scored in those contests is 12.5!

Selection:    This is an Over play on Toronto-Minnesota (10*)

The Red Sox and Yankees went Over last night and I look for them to do the same tonight on ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball." For "starters," both Felix Doubront for Boston and Ivan Nova for New York have looked shaky this season. Going back to last year, Doubront didn't fare well against the Yankees nor did Nova do well against the Red Sox. The Red Sox offense is due to break out sooner rather than later while the Yankees appear to be having no issues at the plate.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Doubront - He has a 14.09 ERA the last two times he's faced the Yankees. In neither of those starts did he make it past the fourth inning. Yet in both he allowed six earned runs. He's coming off a pretty rough outing as well where he didn't even make it out of the third inning and allowed five runs to Texas.

2. Nova - As bad as Doubront was in his last start, Nova was worse as the Orioles scored seven runs off him on ten hits, knocking him out after just 3 2/3 innings. The Yankees would go on to suffer their worst loss of the season, 14-5. Nova has a 7.88 ERA his last two starts vs. Boston. Neither time did he make it out of the fifth inning.

3. X-Factor - After recording 14 hits and five home runs yesterday, the Yankees will have Derek Jeter back in the lineup. As much as you may want to write "The Captain" off at his advanced age, he was 3 for 8 in the first two games of this series. For Boston, they will have Grady Sizemore back at the top of the lineup after he missed Saturday's game.

Selection: This is an Over play on Red Sox-Yankees (10*).

Matchups in the National League West will typically bring low totals, as is the case here, but the oddsmakers obviously must not be paying attention to what the Diamondbacks and Giants have been doing thus far. Some feel that San Francisco may have the best offense in the NL this year and so far the team has made those people look smart with 50 runs scored in nine games. Eight of their games have gone Over the total. Same for Arizona, who is 8-3 Over this year, mainly due to bad pitching. But they scored seven runs Wednesday and I see this one going Over the total too.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Arizona Pitching Woes - The Diamondbacks staff ERA is 6.00 entering today with the opposition scoring seven or more runs six times already. It has not been a good start to the season for today's Diamondbacks starter. Randall Delgado gave up six runs and 10 hits over four innings in a 12-2 loss to Colorado Friday. Looking back to last year, he's now failed to go at least six innings in four of five starts, which has seen him produce an 8.10 ERA while going 1-3.

2. Ryan Vogelsong - Just like Arizona with Delgado, I'm not expecting San Francisco to get a quality start out of Vogelsong. He too didn't make it far in his first start of the year, giving up 4 runs and 7 hits in four innings against the Dodgers on Friday. Last year's injury plagued season saw him go 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA in 19 starts. He has an 8.51 ERA his last five starts against Arizona.

3. X-Factor - With two teams that are combined 12-4 Over this season, a 7.5 run total seems low.

Selection: This is an Over play on Arizona-San Francisco (10*)

Both of these teams lost yesterday and did so because they supplied very little offense. The Rays were shutout 3-0 in Texas while the Royals managed only one run in a loss at the hands of the White Sox. Tampa Bay is now 4-3 while Kansas City is just 2-3, but it looks like we could have an even pitching matchup today with Matt Moore going up against Jason Vargas. I look for a low-scoring game and am taking the Under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Rays Pitching vs. Royals Hitting - Kansas City had some suprisingly good numbers at the plate last year vs. Tampa Bay, but given the way 2014 has started I don't look for a repeat, at least in this series. In five of seven games, the Rays have allowed three runs or less and their staff ERA ranks in the Top 10 in the majors. The Royals come in batting just .214 with runners in scoring position and have scored only 16 runs total. Rays starter Matt Moore should help to continue these trends tonight.

2. Jason Vargas - Don't discount what the Royals lefty can do either. Prior to losing to them last September, he was 3-1 in four starts against them with a 1.32 ERA. He also pitched well in his first start of the season, going toe to toe with Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. Kansas City lost the game 2-1, but Vargas did his part in holding the Tigers to just one run over seven innings.

3. X-Factor - Tampa Bay has already been shutout twice this year. They have been even worse than Kansas City with runners in scoring position, batting .208 including 0 for 11 yesterday.

Selection: This is an Under play on Tampa Bay-Kansas City (10*).

I'm taking the Blackhawks Monday night against the Wild. Surprisingly, the two Central Division teams are currently tied with 15 points, good enough for second place behind Colorado. While a major cause for celebration in Minnesota, that's got to be somewhat disappointing for the Stanley Cup champs considering the way Chicago started last season. I think this is a great value on the Blackhawks thanks to them being on the road. NHL road favorites have been tearing up the league at the start of the season, winning 29 times in 41 tries so far.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Revenge - This is an immediate revenge situation for the Blackhawks, who were dealt their first home regulation loss of the season Saturday night by the Wild, with a final score of 5-3. Keep in mind that Minnesota was a team Chicago ousted in last year's playoffs, in just five games, with the Blackhawks outscoring the Wild 15-7 for the series.

2. Wild Offense - The biggest shock of Saturday night wasn't just that Minnesota won, but rather they did so by scoring five times on just 25 shots! This is a team that had scored more than three times only once all season before the win over Chicago. I can't see Corey Crawford playing any worse in net as his .800 save percentage was his worst in a game in a year and half and his GAA in five playoff starts vs. the Wild last year was 1.32.

3. X-Factor - Minnesota is 0-8 SU following back to back multi-goal victories.

Selection: The play is on the Chicago Blackhawks (10*).

While taken as a whole, the number of runs scored per game has been very low this postseason, I'm expecting a higher scoring game than most expect for Game 1 of the World Series, thus I'm going with the Over as the Cardinals and Red Sox get things going Wednesday Night. Both teams' bats seemed to come alive late in their series as they won their respective pennants last round. St. Louis led the National League in runs scored during the regular season while Boston was #1 overall in MLB in most offensive categories.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Offenses - The Red Sox averaged 5.2 runs/game at home this season. While they struggled to get anything going early in most games in the ALCS, they did end up scoring 12 runs total over the final three games, a decent number. Surprisingly, the Over is 5-3-2 in their 10 postseason games so far. The Over also has a slight edge in St. Louis' playoff games as well, going 6-5, incuding Game 6 of the NLCS where the Cardinals scored nine times, seven of those runs coming in four innings against arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. Overall, St. Louis has scored 17 runs total its last three games.

2. Pitching Matchup - Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright has allowed 136 hits in 127 2/3 innings pitched on the road this season. He has never pitched against the Red Sox, let alone at Fenway Park. The Over is 10-7-1 in his 18 road starts this season. Boston's Game 1 starter is Jon Lester and he has a below par 4.09 ERA in night time starts this season.

3. X-Factor - St. Louis is 26-14 Over this season after allowing 1 run or less in their previous game.

Selection: This is an Over play on St. Louis-Boston (10*).

I like Game 1 of the ALCS to go Under the total. We have what looks like a great pitching matchup between Anibal Sanchez and Jon Lester. Sanchez did not pitch well in his LDS start, but on a staff that includes both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, he actually led the team in ERA. (He, in fact, led the American League in earned run average!). Meanwhile, Lester simply never seems to pitch poorly here at Fenway Park. While his offense was able to support him with 12 runs against Tampa Bay in the LDS, I don't see the Red Sox scoring that many times against Sanchez tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Sanchez - He led the AL in ERA during the regular season, and has actually been more effective on the road. He has a 2.44 ERA away from Comerica Park and a 1.229 WHIP. The Red Sox have never faced him before. The Under is 55-31 in all road games during Sanchez's career.

2. Lester - He comes in with an 8-1 record in 14 starts at Fenway this season (12-2 TSR). His ERA at home is 3.03 with a 1.126 WHIP. The difference between Lester at home and Lester on the road is illustrated by his two starts this year against the Tigers. In Boston last month, he allowed just one run over seven innings, a game won 2-1 by the Red Sox. In Detroit earlier in the year, it was a 10-6 final with Lester allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings.

3. X-Factor - Detroit's offense is scuffling right now. They averaged just 3.4 runs per game in the Oakland series, batting .235 (.291 OBP). Going back further, they are averaging just 2.6 runs the last seven games (.209 BA). This is a team that struggled to score on the road consistently (4.5 runs/game). The Tigers are 94-69 Under in all road games this season, including 21-11 if the total is 7.5 runs or less.

Selection: This is an Under play on Detroit-Boston (10*).

I'm taking the Over in Game 1 of the NLCS between the Dodgers and Cardinals. This shapes up as an excellent series on paper as these were the best two teams in the Senior Circuit all year. St. Louis' dominance was essentially spread out through the season as they finished with the best run differential while for a period of time, there was no hotter team (in baseball history?) than the Dodgers. For two offenses capable of putting lots of runs on the board, and no Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw pitching, this total seems low to me.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Joe Kelly - In his LDS start, he allowed three runs and walked four batters in only 5 1/3 innings & that was against the Pirates weak-hitting lineup. Here he'll be facing a Dodgers team that averaged 6.5 runs per game against Atlanta while batting .333 and had a OBP of .387.

2. St. Louis vs. righties - The Cardinals dominated right-handed pitching all season long, going 80-43 while averaging more than five runs per game. As a team, they batted .274 vs. righties with a .333 OBP. Dodgers starter Zach Greinke is not as dominant on the road as he is at home and his lone LDS start went Over the total as well.

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers score more runs per game on the road (4.5/game) than at home. This shouldn't be too shocking as Chavez Ravine is pitcher friendly. They went Over in all four games vs. Atlanta.

Selection - This is an Over play on LA Dodgers-St. Louis Cardinals (10*).

I'm taking the Under in Game 3 between the Red Sox and Rays. The first two games of this series have both gone Over, rather easily. This has mainly been because of the Red Sox offense, which has totaled 19 runs on its own, basically send the two games Over by themselves. But here at Tropicana Field in Tampa, against Rays starter Alex Cobb, I see their offense being less effective. Meanwhile, Boston will counter with Clay Buchholz, who has been very effective on the road this season. Look for a low-scoring game tonight in Tampa.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Cobb - He was spectacular in the AL Wild Card game, throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings against Cleveland. It was his third straight start that finished Under the total with opponents scoring just one run total during that time! His ERA over his last three starts is 0.41 and his WHIP is 0.955. He has not allowed any runs in his last two starts and not lost at home this season. Overall, he went 11-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 23 starts this season.

2. Buchholz - While Cobb hasn't lost at home this season, Buchholz has not lost on the road. So something will have to give Monday evening. Buchholz has a 1.40 ERA and 0.933 ERA in his seven starts away from Fenway Park and did not allow a single run in two starts this year vs. Tampa Bay, throwing a total of 13 scoreless innings.

3. X-Factor - Boston's offense has been the difference in this series so far, but their numbers this season at Tropicana Field are surprisingly poor. In nine games, they are batting just .209 and have an on-base percentage of .292.

Selection: This is an Under play on Boston-Tampa Bay (10*).

I'm also going with the Under this afternoon in the Boston-Tampa Bay game. The two teams' history, from the regular season, suggests we should expect a low-scoring game Friday. So too does a pitching matchup of Matt Moore vs. Jon Lester. Rays pitching has been pretty stellar throughout the year, but especially in the last two games where they've held the Rangers and Indians to just a pair of runs total (Cleveland shut out Wednesday night). Lester is Boston's #1 starter. The Red Sox are 28-14 Under in day games this year.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Lester - He was 7-1 in 13 home starts during the regular season with an 11-2 TSR. He had an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.289. The last time he started here at Fenway saw him throw seven strong innings against Toronto, allowing just one run on five hits. It was his third straight start in Boston where he allowed only one earned run. Overall, he has gone 7-2 with a 2.57 ERA since the All Star Break, including 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA his last eight starts. The Under is 7-1 in his last eight October starts.

2. History - These teams have played ten times this season here at Fenway Park. The Under is a perfect 10-0 in those games and overall the Under went 14-5 in the 19 games played between them during the regular season. Going back further, the Under is 21-8 the last 29 matchups in Boston.

3. X-Factor - Rays starter Matt Moore does tend to do his best work on the road where his ERA is 2.74 and his WHIP is 1.289 over 16 starts. Unfortunately for him though, the team averages only 3.8 runs/game in the daytime.

Selection: This is an Under play on Tampa Bay-Boston (10*).

I'm taking the Under in Wednesday night's AL Wild Card matchup between Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Both teams have done a solid job down the stretch in limiting their opponents scoring and that trend should continue tonight with a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb vs. Danny Salazar.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Danny Salazar - The Indians starter is only 23 years old, but probably is the future of the rotation. He turned in a 3.12 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He allowed only 18 earned runs and 44 hits with a 65-15 KW ratio in 52 innings. He limited opponents to a .226 batting average against & this will be the Rays first-ever look at him. The Under cashed in 7 of his 10 starts.

2. Alex Cobb - The Rays counter with Cobb, who went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts this year. Over his last three starts, he went 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. He had a 26-5 KW ratio. In his final regular season start, which was at Yankees Stadium, he threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball. The Under cashed in each of his last two starts and is 11-5 in his career when he's working on 5 or 6 days rest.

3. X-Factor - In four of the six games played this season between the Rays & Indians, one of the teams was shutout!

Selection: This is an Under play on Tampa Bay-Cleveland (10*).

I'm taking the Under in the NL Wild Card matchup between the Reds and Pirates. It's a low number, but on paper we have an outstanding pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto vs. Francisco Liriano and neither team I feel is going to put up a lot of runs tonight. Pittsburgh was an Under team all season while Cincinnati's bats seem to have picked the wrong time to be in their worst stretch of the season. Playoff games tend to feature low scoring games to begin with and I think that's what we'll see here.



Here are my keys to the game:



1. Lack of Hitting - Not only must the Reds deal with the lefty Liriano (they average just 3.9 runs/game vs. southpaws this season), but they come into the postseason not hitting well at all. They scored a grand total of eight runs during their five-game slide at the end of the regular season. Pirates pitching has allowed just 13 runs over the course of its last six games, but they've needed to be that good with an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball in runs scored.



2. Pitching Matchup - The Reds' Johnny Cueto has looked good since returning from a near three-month stint on the DL by allowing just one earned run over two starts. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 11 starts overall in 2013. Against Pittsburgh, he's got a 2.37 ERA and 1.015 WHIP all-time. The Under is 31-12 in all of his starts since the start of the 2012 season. Liriano, while he's 0-3 this year vs. the Reds, has a 1.110 WHIP in four starts against them. His overall numbers remain very good, especially a 1.47 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 11 starts at PNC Park.



3. X-Factor - Over the last two seasons, the Pirates are 36-17 Under at home when the total is 7 runs or less.



Selection: This is an Under play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I am taking the Under this afternoon as Pittsburgh tries to wrap up homefield advantage for next Tuesday's Wild Card game. A win Saturday would do just that as yesterday's surprising 4-1 victory put them two games up in the standings. That game obviously went Under and so too will this one as we have what looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup with Charlie Morton vs. Bronson Arroyo. The Pirates have been an Under team all season, ranking near the bottom 10 in offense in MLB, while the Reds offense has disappeared over the last few games as well.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Lack of Offense - The Pirates come in averaging just 3.9 runs/game. They are pretty consistently subpar across the board in all situations, and in fact are even a little worse when taking on a right-handed starter (3.8 runs/game). Over the last seven games, they are batting just .216 as a team. More troubling though has been the Reds offense disappearing during a three-game losing streak. They have scored just one run total in the last 22 innings and have scored only three times total in the last three games. They are batting just .196 as a team during this time.

2. Pitching Matchup - Pirates starter Charlie Morton has pitched remarkably well in the past here in Cincinnati. In his last three starts at Great American Ballpark, he has a 0.39 ERA and two of those were complete games. He didn't allow a single run in 5 1/3 innings the last time he faced the Reds, earlier this year, and also threw seven scoreless innings in his last start against the Chicago Cubs. Reds starter Bronson Arroyo has a 3.13 ERA and 1.093 WHIP at home this season, including 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA his last five starts here.

3. X-Factor - In the previous series between these teams (Sept 20-22), I was on the right side of the total in all three games! I had the Over in both Cincinnati victories and the Under in Pittsburgh's lone win.

Selection: This is an Under play on Pittsburgh-Cincinnati (10*).

I'm going with the Over Saturday as the Angels meet the Rangers. After yesterday's results, Texas now trails both Cleveland and Tampa Bay by one game in the AL Wild Card race. They have won five in a row, including the first two games of this series, 6-5 and 5-3. They are averaging nearly seven runs per game during the win streak overall. Note that this game has been moved up to an early start time. In fact, the 11:05 AM local time start is the earliest in the history of the Ballpark in Arlington.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Holland vs. Angels - While coming off a complete game shutout, Holland has not had that kind of success recently against the Angels. He's failed to make it past the sixth inning each of the last three times he's gone up against them, turning in an 8.41 ERA during that time. All three starts came this year and in the last one he allowed eight runs, granted only four earned, in just 5 2/3 innings. He's allowed 18 runs total in the three starts overall. Also note that the Over is 14-3 in Holland's starts if he allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last two starts.

2. Garrett Richards - It was an ugly last outing for the Angels starter as he gave up 7 runs in 4 2/3 innings as the team got beat 10-5 by Oakland. The last time Richards made a start here in Arlington, the result was an 11-10 final in favor of the Rangers. He allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings.

3. X-Factor - The Angels are actually a pretty solid team offensively on the road, scoring an average of 4.8 runs/game. They also are averaging 4.8 runs/game in day games this season, so the time change works to our favor here.

Selection: This is an Over play on LA Angels-Texas (10*).

Based on strength of schedule, the Cleveland Indians have appeared to have the easiest path to the AL Wild Card game of all the contenders. They just got done sweeping the woeful Houston Astros over the weekend and will finish the year with series against the two worst teams in the American League Central, the White Sox and Minnesota. Though they have dominated Chicago this year (15-2 head to head), I think Tuesday's series opener will turn out to be a bit tougher than expected and as a result, I like the Under tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Ubaldo Jimenez - A questionable acquisition a few years ago, Jimenez has now rediscovered his 2010 form from Colorado. He has a phenomenal 1.65 ERA his last 10 starts overall. That includes a 0.81 ERA his last three with a 0.985 WHIP. He's allowed just two earned runs in his last four starts, one of those coming against these White Sox where he went 8 1/3 innings and allowed only one run.

2. Hector Santiago - His recent numbers haven't been great as he's failed to go deep into games, but overall Santiago has strong numbers. He has a 2.97 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 11 road starts. He has a 3.47 ERA in 22 starts overall. The Under has cashed in each of his last six starts and 10 of the last 11. The Under is 13-3 when he's been an underdog on the money line this year.

3. X-Factor - The White Sox offense doesn't exactly put fear into the hearts of anyone as they've scored an AL-low 582 runs this season. Only Miami has scored fewer in all of baseball.

Selection: This is an Under play on Chicago-Cleveland (10*).

After winning with the Over in the first game of this series, I came back and cashed the Under in yesterday's contest. Today, I'll go back to the Over for the Pirates & Reds. Give Pittsburgh some credit for bouncing back Saturday after enduring such a crushing defeat the previous night. They enter today's series finale with a one game advantage over Cincinnati, which would give them the homefield edge in this likely National League Wild Card matchup. I think both offenses will be able to produce Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Reds Offense - Before scoring only two runs last night, Cincinnati had gone Over in five of their last six games, scoring six or more runs in four consecutive games (28 total). Thus, I feel this total is too low.

2. Jeff Locke - Over his last 10 starts, the Pirates starter is 1-4 with a 5.90 ERA. In his last start, he allowed four runs in just five innings.

3. X-Factor - Reds starter Bronson Arroyo has seen the Over cash in 10 of his last 13 starts when working on 5 or 6 days rest. He is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA his last four starts against Pittsburgh. He has a 4.56 ERA his last four starts overall.

Selection: This is an Over play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I won with these teams going Over last night, but today I'll switch courses and take the Under. Pittsburgh has to be heartbroken following Friday's 6-5 loss. They led 5-2 entering in the ninth only for their very strong bullpen to uncharacteristically blow a game for the second time in three days. They have now fallen into a second place tie with the Reds, who have a much better run differential for the year than the Pirates (+115 to +48) and I think will end up hosting the Wild Card game. Tonight's pitching matchup is stronger on paper than Friday's.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pirates' Lack of Hitting - They may have scored five runs in defeat last night, but Pittsburgh's inability to consistently produce at the plate is troublesome. Looking at the eight teams "we know" are going to be in the playoffs (basically discounting the AL Wild Cards), the Pirates have scored, by far, the fewest runs at only 599 for the season. That's an average of just 3.9/game. They are batting only .216 as a team the last seven games.

2. Pitching Matchup - The Reds send out Homer Bailey, who has had the Pirates number throughout his career. In 14 starts, he is 8-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.106 WHIP with two shutouts. One of those came in his last visit to PNC Park when he threw a no-hitter almost one year ago to the date. Bailey comes in off four straight quality starts where he's allowed just five earned runs in 28+ innings. He'll be opposed by AJ Burnett, whose recent numbers aren't as strong, but that's because two of them were on the road. He's a much stronger pitcher at home where his ERA is 2.35 and his WHIP is 1.068 in 13 starts. That includes a 1.52 ERA his last four. Burnett has seen the Under go 13-2 in his home starts if the total is 7 runs or less!

3. X-Factor - The Pirates are 13-3 Under off a division loss as a home favorite.

Selection: This is an Under play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I'm taking the Over Friday night as Pittsburgh and Cincinnati open up a critical three-game set. As you probably know, these teams are neck and neck right now in the National League Central, separated by only one game and looking up at first place St. Louis. The Pirates are only one game back while the Reds are two. If the playoffs started today, this would be the NL Wild Card matchup. While Pittsburgh has had its share of offensive issues lately, they broke loose yesterday for 10 runs and I feel that even with Francisco Liriano pitching, this total is too low.



Here are my keys to the game:



1. Pirates Yesterday - After scoring just nine runs total the previous five games, Pittsburgh topped that in nine innings yesterday, jumping all over San Diego early and winning 10-1. I'm proud to say that I was on the Bucs there. They had 14 hits for the game.



2. Liriano vs. Reds - While Francisco Liriano has had
a marvelous comeback season, he has struggled against the Reds, going 0-3 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. The last time he faced them was one of his worst starts of the year as he gave up five runs in just 4 1/3 innings and issued four walks. He has also been slowing down lately as his ERA over his last three starts overall is 6.00.



3. X-Factor - The Reds are averaging 5.9 runs over the last seven games, which is nearly enough to send this one Over the total by themselves.



Selection - This is an Over play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*).

I like the Over in the battle of the National League Central's two bottom feeders, Milwaukee and the Cubs, Monday night. This division will almost assuredly be sending three teams to the playoffs. These are the other two. This seems like a pretty low total for two clubs that have given up plenty of runs this season. Only three teams in the National League have surrendered more runs this season than the Brewers have. Tonight's starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching Matchup - Both of Monday's starters come in with 15 losses on the year. That's tied for the league lead. For the Cubs, Edwin Jackson had a 6.48 ERA his first three starts against the Brewers this year. That was before he allowed just one run over eight innings his last time facing them, at home. But consider he has a 4.96 ERA on the road. For Milwaukee, Wily Peralta has a 5.08 ERA at Miller Park. He's allowed a total of 11 runs his last 2 starts against the Cubs.

2. Trend - The Over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Peralta's home starts this year if the money line is +125 to -125.

3. X-Factor - Milwaukee is 62-38 Over as a home favorite the last two seasons.

Selection: This is an Over play on Chicago-Milwaukee (10*).

I also like the Over today between the A's and Twins. Oakland absolutely hammered Minnesota yesterday, 18-3, which was a nice way to rebound from a loss in Tuesday's series opener. With Texas getting swept at home by Pittsburgh, the Athletics now have a three-game cushion in the American League West. Meanwhile, Minnesota is showing few signs of life. One of the few things we do have to work with here however is that they have gone Over in seven of their last nine games. Based on what happened yesterday, and the fact that the Twins have Scott Diamond pitching, I see this one going Over the total.

Here are my keys to the game.

1. Yesterday - Oakland scored 18 runs and had 22 hits yesterday, both season highs. Every A's starter had at least one hit, one run scored and one RBI. They scored 10 runs alone in the fourth inning. They finished the game with 11 extra base hits, eight of them doubles. It was also a season high in runs and hits allowed for Minnesota.

2. Scott Diamond - This will be the first start for Diamond since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester. While he looked good at the minor league level, his big league starts have not gone well with a 5.52 ERA in 20 starts. He'd allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last five starts before being demoted. At home, his ERA is 6.50 in 10 starts.

3. X-Factor - A's starter AJ Griffin is no stranger to run support as he's gotten a total of 16 runs while winning each of his last three starts.

Selection: This is an Over play on Oakland-Minnesota (10*).

The Nationals and Phillies combined for 15 runs yesterday (9-6 Washington win), easily sending the game Over the total. I see another high-scoring affair between the teams taking place tonight. Neither starter's recent numbers inspire much confidence here. For Philadelphia's Roy Halladay, it has been a lost season due to injury and when he has pitched, things have not gone his way. Washington's Jordan Zimmerman started the year well, but is not nearly as effective on the road. The Nats offense comes in averaging 5.0 runs its last seven games while batting nearly .300.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Zimmerman on the road - In 11 starts this season away from home, Zimmerman has an ERA of 4.03. Three starts ago, he was hit hard by the Cubs, as he allowed eight runs in just five innings. That was the third time this season he's allowed at least six runs in six innings or less on the road. He is just 2-5 in eight career starts vs. the Phillies with a 4.37 ERA. That includes a 1-3 TSR here in Philadelphia. The Over is 8-2 in Zimmerman's last 10 September starts.

2. Halladay's Struggles - Needless to say, it has been the worst season of Halladay's career. The former Cy Young winner has a 7.94 ERA in nine starts, and just allowed five runs in five innings his last outing. Fortunately, the offense was able to bail him out, rallying from the early five run deficit to win 6-5. The Over has cashed in eight of Halladay's nine starts this season, including all five at home. Going back to last year, the Over is 7-0 when he is an underdog on the money line and he's also 13-2 Over against division opponents.

3. X-Factor - Washington is 21-10 Over the last two seasons after scoring 9 or more runs their previous game.

Selection: The play is Over Washington-Philadelphia (10*).

full game analysis will be posted shortly

I'll take the Over here as Oakland and Detroit open up a four-game set in the Motor City. Any time the Tigers play at home, the game has a good chance of going Over. Or anywhere for that matter. Case in point, they scored 11 runs yesterday, seven of them coming in the top half of the ninth to put the game away against the Mets. Oakland gave up 10 runs yesterday in a loss to Baltimore that dropped them to 2.5 games back of Texas in the American League West. Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. With Anibal Sanchez pitching, the money line is too high to take Detroit, so I'll just bank on the offense coming through and sending this one Over the total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Tigers Offense - This is a low total considering what Detroit is capable of at the plate. Here at Comerica Park, they average 5.3 runs per game with a team batting average approaching .300. Lately, they have been even more potent, averaging 6.1 runs over the last seven games with a .341 team BA. They have scored at least six runs in six of the last eight games. No team has scored more runs in all of baseball this season (662). They are also #1 in team batting average and on base percentage (.347). They are #2 in slugging percentage (.440).

2. AJ Griffin - At first glance, tonight's starter for the A's has some decent numbers. But he has been experiencing some major control issues lately as he has walked a total of 15 batters his last three starts. His WHIP is 1.740 during that time. Griffin has also had a problem all year keeping the ball in the park. He's allowed a frightening total of 30 long balls in his 26 starts this season, 17 of those coming on the road. That is the most home runs allowed of any pitcher in baseball and obviously a major problem when facing a team like the Tigers.

3. X-Factor - The Tigers are a perfect 2-0 Over this season following a game where they had 17 or more hits. They had 18 yesterday and have 33 the last two games. They have recorded at least 11 hits in seven of the last eight games.

Selection: The play is Over Oakland-Detroit (10*).

I had the Angels and won yesterday. Today, I'll take the Under as they wrap up a three-game set with the last place Houston Astros. Yesterday's game featured a lot more scoring than we're likely to see here as we have a strong starting pitching matchup of Brett Oberholtzer and Jason Vargas, both of whom are lefties. Neither club has put up impressive numbers vs. southpaws in 2013 and as a result, I see this one staying Under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Oberholtzer - It's been a very strong start to his big league career. So far, in three starts, he's allowed only two runs in 20 2/3 innings. Both runs came in his last start as the team lost 2-1 to Texas at home as Oberholtzer was on the wrong end of a no-hit bid from the Rangers' Yu Darvish. I'd definitely take a similar result this time out. Oberholtzer has not allowed a run in either of his two road starts, lasting seven innings both times.

2. Vargas - Things did not go well for him in his last start, but that was at Yankees Stadium. At home, Vargas has been much better with a 3.13 ERA and 1.207 WHIP. Tuesday was also Vargas' first start since since having a blot clot removed, which caused him to miss all of July.

3. X-Factor - Both teams typically do not score much against lefties. The Astros are 10-20 vs. southpaws, averaging just 3.1 runs per game. The Angels are just 12-20, averaging just 4.0 runs per game.

Selection: The play is on Under Houston-LA Angels (10*).

I'm taking the Over in Game One of today's doubleheader between Kansas City and Detroit. Last night, the Tigers took the opener, 4-1, in this critical AL Central series. They now have an 8.5 game lead over the Royals in the division and a 6.5 game lead over the Indians. There has been a pitching change here for Kansas City as they've flip-flopped the Game 1 and Game 2 starters and it will now be Danny Duffy going in Game 1 against Justin Verlander. Regardless, I still like the Over to cash this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching Change - Obviously, the Royals chances of winning Game 1 decrease with the move from James Shields (will now pitch Game 2) to Duffy. In his first start of 2013, Duffy allowed a pair of runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings back on August 7th. In four career starts against the Tigers, he is 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA. The Tigers are 14-6 Over at home when facing a left-handed starter this season.

2. Verlander - This has been far from Verlander's best season. He typically dominates the Royals, but in his lone start against them this year, he allowed six runs (five earned) in a 6-5 loss, going only 5 2/3 innings. In his last start, Verlander allowed four runs in a loss to the Yankees. That was the 8th time this season that the former Cy Young winner has allowed that many runs in a start and the sixth time since June 18th. As a result, the Over is 16-8 in all of Verlander's starts, including 7-3 at home.

3. X-Factor - Not only does Detroit average 5.5 runs/game at home, but they are 28-18 Over in day games as well.

Selection: The play is Over (Game 1) Kansas City-Detroit (10*).

I'll take the Over tonight as AL West rivals Houston and Oakland open up a three-game set. I cashed on both of these teams games Monday. The A's won 5-1 in Toronto while I cashed both side and total for the Astros as they lost 2-1 at home to Texas. It was the second straight game Houston scored only one run and they had only one hit off Rangers starter Yu Darvish to boot. Tonight, they will face Bartolo Colon as a huge underdog (1-11 this season vs. the A's), but with a low number I see this game going Over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Houston Pitching - No other team in baseball can approach the hideousness of the Astros pitching staff. Whether its the starters or the bullpen, it's all around bad. They are allowing an average of 5.3 runs per game this season, including 6.3 per game the last seven games. Tonight, it's Jordan Lyles, who has a terrible 11.17 ERA his last four starts. Last Tuesday, he allowed eight runs in just 4 2/3 innings as the team lost 15-10 to Boston!

2. Head to Head History - Oakland is 16-2 all-time vs. Houston, including an 11-1 mark in 2013 where they have averaged 6.7 runs/game and hit 18 home runs. The Over is 8-4 in those games.

3. X-Factor - Bartolo Colon is having a great season, but did not pitch well last time out, allowing five runs in just 2 2/3 innings at Cincinnati. As a home favorite of -250 to -330 in his career, the Over is 12-2 in Colon starts.

Selection: The play is Over Houston-Oakland (10*).

This has been a completely one-sided series thus far with the red-hot Rangers dominating the ice-cold Astros. Basically, the only thing these clubs have in common is that both reside in the Lone Star State. Texas has totally wiped the floor with Houston all season, going 10-2 against their new division rival, including an 8-1 record here at Minute Maid Park. With Yu Darvish pitching today, that domination should continue. At the same time, Houston's Brett Oberholtzer has been somewhat of a revelation for a Houston pitching staff that has generally been a disaster all year long. He should keep this game low-scoring as the Rangers have been a big Under team all season anyway.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Darvish - With Darvish on the hill, Texas superiority over Houston is only intensified. He comes in with an 11-5 record and a 2.72 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 23 starts. Lately, he's been even better with a 1.80 ERA his last three starts, including back to back wins. He threw seven innings his last outing, giving up only three wins in a road win over the Angels. This will be Darvish's fourth start against Houston this season. The first two went very well before he struggled last month. But I see no issues this time around. His ERA in four career starts vs. Houston is 3.03.

2. Oberholtzer - His first two career major league starts have gone very well with Houston winning (in shutout fashion!) both times. Both starts have seen him toss seven scoreless innings and he's allowed only seven hits total! His last start came against a very potent Boston lineup here at home.

3. X-Factor - As I mentioned, Texas has been a big Under team all season. They are 69-43 Under in all games this season, including a 17-5 mark if they allowed one run or less in their last game. They won yesterday 6-1.

Selection: The play is Under Texas-Houston (10*).

So far, I've taken the Indians in every game of this series. I'm 3-0 as the Tribe has won late every time, twice in walk-off fashion. For Thursday's finale though, I'm going with the Under. I just don't know how much more magic Cleveland can have in its bag of tricks. Although, given how hot they've been and how bad the White Sox are, it's quite likely the home team wins again here. But I feel that with a pitching matchup of Chris Sale vs. Justin Masterson (both staff aces), the Under is the most likely scenario this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Sale - His last start basically summed up his entire season. Despite throwing a complete game where he allowed just one run, Sale lost, as the team failed to provide him with any runs. Of course, a 1-0 final would be just lovely here. Overall, the Under is 12-5 in Sale's 19 starts this season (2 pushes) as the left-hander has a 2.69 ERA and 1.015 WHIP. Even more encouraging for today is that the Under is 14-3 in Sale's starts if he allowed one earned run or less his previous outing.

2. Masterson - He has a 3.42 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 22 starts this season, but has been even better lately. This includes his last start, which like Sale was also a 1-0 final. Against Texas, Masterson allowed no runs over 7 2/3 innings (only five hits), dropping his ERA over his last three starts to 1.27. Against the White Sox this season, he's been even sharper. He's 3-0 with a pair of complete game shutouts. Overall, he's allowed just two earned runs in 25 innings. The Under has cashed in all three starts.

3. X-Factor - "This just in," the White Sox hitting is still lousy. They continue to rank dead last in the American League in runs scored at 3.7 per game. Going into last night, they'd been averaging just 2.6 runs over their last seven contests. Perhaps most telling of all though is the fact the offense has failed to score a single run for Sale in three of his past five starts!

Selection: The play is on Under White Sox-Cleveland (10*).

Tampa Bay and Boston quickly renew acquaintences on Monday, if only for a day. These teams just played three games here at Fenway last week with the Rays taking two of the games. This is a make-up date from last Thursday's rainout. Given the way most Rays games have gone lately, save for yesterday, I think the Under is the natural way to look for Monday. Six of Tampa Bay's last eight games have gone Under. The same is also true for Boston, who shut out Baltimore 5-0 Sunday (a win for me!). With a battle of lefties in this series opener, runs should be at a premium.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. David Price - Rays pitching has been phenomenal the last 25 games with an ERA just above 2.00 and opponents barely batting .200. Though the team lost yesterday, they are still 21-4 during that stretch, pulling within one-half game of the Red Sox for 1st place in the AL East. Price has certainly done his part to contribute, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA in five starts since being activated from the DL. Last week saw Price toss a five-hitter here in Fenway, holding Boston to just one run in a complete game victory. His 1.96 career ERA in Boston (nine starts) is the lowest among all active pitchers that have gone at least 20 innings here.

2. Felix Doubront - The Red Sox own lefty should be more than able to hold his own tonight. Though he was on the losing end of that 5-1 decision to Price last week (game did go Under!), in his previous six starts Doubront was 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA, allowing two earned runs or less each time out. All three times he's started this season against Tampa Bay, the Under has cashed.

3. X-Factor - The Under has cashed all nine times these teams have met this season in Boston. The last seven meetings overall have all seen eight or less total runs scored. Going back three seasons, the Under is on a 20-7 run when the Rays and Red Sox meet in Boston.

Selection: The play is on Under Tampa Bay-Boston (10*).

I'll take the Over Saturday afternoon between Minnesota and Seattle. The Twins should be thrilled to have earned a split in the first two games of this four-game set as they had to face Hisashi Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez, perhaps the best 1-2 combo in any rotation in baseball. They were fortunate to defeat Hernandez yesterday as they were two outs away from being shutout, but got a RBI single from Trevor Plouffe in the top of the ninth to send the game to extra innings (would go on to win 3-2 in 13 innings). With Iwakuma and King Felix now out of the way though, I expect plenty more runs, from both sides, today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Aaron Harang - To say there is a drop off in the Mariners rotation from Hernandez and Iwakuma would be putting it mildly. Granted, the entire rotation has pitched well recently, but Harang still has an ERA north of 5.00 for the season. Two starts ago, he allowed seven runs in just five innings. The Over is 11-5 in his 16 starts this year, including a 7-3 mark here at Safeco Field. The Over is 8-2 his last 10 home starts as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

2. Sam Deduno - Like Harang, Deduno has pitched well lately, but his overall numbers are still subpar. His ERA on the road is 4.25 and that's after winning his last two starts away from home while giving up just three runs in 14 innings of work. Despite the back to back victories from Deduno, he has experienced control issues. He had five walks last start after issuing three his previous time out.

3. X-Factor - Seattle's offense was averaging over six runs per game during an eight-game win streak. They scored eight runs in the series opener here. After being held in check last night, chances are that they "break loose" again tonight.

Selection: The play is on Over Minnesota-Seattle (10*).

full game analysis will be posted soon

Full game analysis will be posted shortly.

I like the Under in this afternoon's game between the Mets and Giants. This is a quick turnaround for the two teams after the Mets won 10-6, a game that ended after 1 PM ET. Monday's series opener didn't end until nearly 1 PM LOCAL time and went 16 innings. Though both games so far in this series have gone Over, consider that Monday's total was only set at 6.5 runs and both teams were held scoreless from the 8th through 15th innings. The difference yesterday was an 8th inning grand slam by the Mets' Marlon Byrd. Much lower scoring game today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Giants Offense - The poor Giants. The six runs they scored yesterday were their most in a game since June 14th and they still lost. They have now lost 13 of 15 games overall and scored three runs or less 11 times during that streak. Over the last seven games, they are averaging just 2.6 runs per game while batting .202 as a team. Yesterday was only the fourth time in the last 22 games that San Francisco scored at least four runs in a game. The team is a perfect 9-0 Under the last three seasons following a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs.

2. Zach Wheeler - The Mets prized prospect has a 2.76 ERA so far on the road, in three starts. He allowed only one run in his last start, much better than what we'd seen from him in the previous two starts. Of course, he tossed six scoreless innings in his big league debut.

3. X-Factor - Though the Giants' Matt Cain was roughed up badly his last start, he had posted a 1.82 ERA his previous five. Cain was 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA last year and has found plenty of success in the past against the Mets, posting a 2.01 ERA his last five starts against them.

Selection: The play is Under Mets-San Francisco (10*).

I like the Over tonight as the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays open a four-game set. Looking at the last week or so, these are clearly two teams headed in opposite directions. The Twins have really gotten beaten up, dropping seven of their last eight. Tampa Bay has won eight of nine. You might think this one would be easy pickings for the Rays, but I think having Roberto Hernandez on the mound will allow the visitors to stay in the game, which should be high-scoring for both sides.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Tampa Bay Hitting - During this 8-1 run, the Rays are batting .290 as a team while averaging a strong 5.4 runs per game. They didn't need much offense to sweep the White Sox over the weekend, but should be in for a big day at the plate tonight against Minnesota's Sam Deduno, who carries a 4.84 ERA in four road starts this year. Deduno has never previously faced Tampa Bay.

2. Hernandez - He started the lone game the Rays lost over the last nine contests and he is 0-4 his last four starts overall. The team has given him very little run support during that time, but that shouldn't be an issue tonight. In 16 starts this year, Hernandez has a 4.95 ERA, so he should give up some runs as well, resulting in a high-scoring game tonight at Tropicana Field.

3. X-Factor - The Over is 26-18 at Tropicana Field this season, including 5-2 in Hernandez's starts.

Selection: The play is Over Minnesota-Tampa Bay (10*).

full game analysis will be posted soon