The set-up: The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays are familiar foes, as these AL East rivals have met 19 times this regular season. The teams finished the regular season with identical 89-73 records but the Blue Jays won 10 of the 19 meetings. That one-game edge is the reason this one-game, winner-take-all wild card game is being played at Rogers Centre instead of Camden Yards. The Blue Jays outscored the Orioles in the 19 head-to-head meetings this season (97-81) and owned an edge in HRs, 29-28 (note: Baltimore all of MLB with 253 HRs). The Blue Jays were 6-4 against the Orioles in the games played here in Toronto. The pitching matchup: Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) starts for Baltimore and Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37) takes the mound for Toronto. Tillman spent some time on the DL this season but was Baltimore biggest winner (16) and its biggest money earner, as the Orioles were 22-8 in his starts (plus-$1452), the fifth-best mark among all starters. Tillman is 5-10 (5.18 ERA) in 24 career starts against  Baltimore with the Orioles going 10-14. Stroman takes the mound having not won since August 14. He was 0-5 in six September starts (Blue Jays were 0-6) and in six career starts against them is 2-3 (5.84 ERA) with the Blue Jays going 2-4. The pick: The Blue Jays won their two regular-season games in October, after struggling to an 11-16 record in September.Doing the math, the Blue Jays averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs RPG in their 29 September-October 29 games. Yes, Stroman was 0-5 in September (Orioles were 0-6) but he owned a respectable 3.41 ERA in those outings. He may just find this struggling Toronto lineup to his liking. As for Tillman, he owns a 3.63 ERA in four starts against Toronto this year, including posting a 2.38 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre. The under is a 10* play. 

analysis posted very shortly (10*)

The set-up: Houston opened its final seven-game homestand last Thursday against the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card spot. However, the Astros lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Houston then lost 4-3 in 11-innings Monday to the Mariners, dropping them 3 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot and with just five games left. The Mariners moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Astros in the AL wild-card race but they were still two games behind the Orioles, who were idle on Monday. The Astros won 8-4 Tuesday night, moving them within 2 1/2 games of the Orioles (5-1 losers at Toronto). That Baltimore loss allowed Seattle to remain within 1 1/2 games of the Orioles, despite Tuesday’s defeat. However, time is running out on both the Mariners and the Astros, as the teams cap a three-games series Wednesday afternoon in Houston.  The pitching matchup: James Paxton (5-7, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Doug Fister (12-12, 4.42) does so for Houston. Paxton is 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA over three career starts against the Astros (Seattle is 0-3). He comes off ending a five-start winless streak by allowing just one run on five hits while striking out nine over seven innings against Minnesota in his last outing. Fister was first selected by Seattle back in the 2006 draft (seventh round) and makes his eighth career start against the Mariners (he’s 4-2 with a 4.64 ERA with his teams going 4-3). The pick: Paxton is 0-2 versus Houston this year (posting a 6.00 ERA) and Fister limps in winless over his last six outings (he’s 0-3 and the team 0-6), with a 9.35 ERA, after allowing six or more ERs in three of the starts. The Over is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Rangers lost 8-3 last night at home vs. the Brewers and that allowed the idle Red Sox (who currently own an 11-game winning streak) to move a half-game ahead of them for the AL’s best record. More bad news came Monday with Cleveland’s 7-4 win and the Rangers are now just a half-game up on the Indians. If Texas falls behind both teams, its ALDS matchup would come on the road, as would its potential ALCS matchup. I noted Monday that while Milwaukee’s 30-46 road record is among the worst in MLB, the Brewers have now won 11 of their last 16 on the road. The pitching matchup: Jimmy Nelson (8-15, 4.50 ERA) goes for Milwaukee up against Texas’ A.J. Griffin (7-4, 4.94 ERA). Nelson leads the National League in losses and enters this game having posted a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts, while giving up five HRs during that stretch. Griffin lasted just 1 2/3 innings in his last outing, leaving him winless over his last three starts, posting a 9.24 ERA during the stretch. The pick: Looking at just the starting pitchers would cause one to play the over. However, the Texas bats have been extremely quiet, scoring just 28 runs over the last nine games (that’s 3.11 per game!). As for Milwaukee, despite the team’s 8-3 win last night, the Brewers enter tonight’s game having scored just 26 runs over their last eight games (3.25 per game). The Under is a 10* play. 

The set-up: Houston opened its last four-game home series (Thursday-Sunday) with the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card slot but lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Seattle won two of three games over the Twins at Minnesota Friday through Sunday and now sits at 82-73. That leaves the Mariners 2 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot and the Astros check in a half-game back of Seattle at 82-74. Do either of these teams have a realistic wild card chance? Probably not and only a three-game sweep by one or the other would give that team at least a “whiff of a chance.” The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.04 ERA) goes for Seattle and Collin McHugh (12-10, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for Houston. Iwakuma is 35-year-old and won 14 and 15 games in his first two full seasons of 2013 and 2014. He then won just nine games in 2015 (injuries limited him to 20 starts) but has rebounded to win 16 games this year in 31 starts. However, his 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and opponents BA of .280 are all career highs. McHugh enters on a seven-start unbeaten streak in which he’s gone 5-0 (Astros are 7-0). The pick: Iwakuma is coming off an abysmal outing (six runs allowed on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to Toronto last Tuesday) but I expect him to rebound here vs. a Houston team which averaged just 3.5 RPG in losing three of four home games to the Angels over the weekend. As for McHugh, he hasn’t lost since August 13 and his ERA is 1.53 over his last three starts. More importantly, he’s dominated Seattle in 2016, going 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four outings. The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Blue Jays beat the Rays 3-2 on Monday but Tampa Bay bounced back with a 6-2 win last night. Toronto is now 3-8 since the break but remained two games back of the Red Sox in the AL East, as Boston lost 6-3 to the Orioles. However, Baltimore’s win pulled them into a tie with Toronto for the top wild card spot (those two teams lead the Tigers and Yankees by two games and the Mariners by 2 1/2). The Rays and Jays play an early afternoon at Rogers Centre to decide this series and end the season series between the two clubs. The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-0, 4.09 ERA) will be making his third start in the majors since returning from Tommy John surgery for the Rays and Marco Estrada (8-8, 3.68 ERA) starts for the Jays. Cobb allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hit in a no-decision start against the New York Yankees last Thursday at Yankee Stadium, which came after a September 2 start in Tampa vs. the Jays when he also didn’t factor in the decision while allowing four hits and two runs in five innings of an 8-3 Toronto win. Estrada has lost four of his last five starts, including two straight. His downward trend is becoming an issue, as his ERA is 7.71 in that five-start stretch, quite a drop-off from the 2.95 ERA he posted in his first 20 outings of 2016. The pick: Tuesday’s win by the Rays clinched the season series against the Jays (Tampa leads 10-8), for the eighth time in the past nine years. However, let’s also note that the Rays need to win here to clinch this current three-game series but Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 in its last seven road series and has lost nine consecutive sets in AL parks. The Rays have earned their 61-83 record and the team's road record of 26-43 gives them the worst moneyline mark (minus-$1507) of any of MLB’s 30 teams. As for the Blue Jays, they look like a tired, hurting team these days. That makes the Under is an 8* play.

The set-up: Jon Lester won his 16th game of the season 2-0 over the Astros Friday night but the stage was set for a rubber match to this series on Sunday night with the Astros’ 2-1 win on Saturday afternoon. Houston’s win snapped a three-game skid and leaves them 75-67, 2 1/2 games back of the AL’s second wild card, a race which still includes SEVEN teams! The 90-51 Cubs own a huge 15-game lead over the Cards in the NL Central plus own a 6 1/2 game lead over the Nationals for the NL’s top record.

The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (16-6, 2.84 ERA) looks for win No. 17 in tonight’s game, up against Houston’s Mike Fiers (10-6, 4.29 ERA). Arrieta took a tough loss last time out against San Francisco, allowing three runs (two earned) over six innings in a 3-2 setback. However, last year’s Cy Young winner has just two quality starts over his last five outings and has issued 17 walks in 31 2/3 innings over that span.  Fiers hasn’t pitched all that well in his last two starts, allowing 15 hits over just 10 innings but has somehow allowed only five runs (just three have been earned).

The pick: Arrieta will be making his first career appearance against the Astros and excluding the Cubs, Houston is the only team Arrieta has yet to face in his career. As for Fiers, he’s 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five games (four starts) all-time against the Cubs. However, expecting a third straight 2-0 or 2-1 game is a stretch. Note that prior to Arrieta’s last outing vs. the Giants, his previous four starts had averaged 13.25 RPG. As for Fiers? His last three starts have seen an average of 14.33 runs scored. The Over is a 10*!

The set-up: The New York Yankees were swept in a three-game series at Tampa Bay in late July. Having already traded Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs, that sweep convinced GM Brian Cashman to go into sell mode and trade off three other veterans and go with younger players. The teams met again in mid-August and on August 12, Alex Rodriguez had an RBI double in his last game for the Yankees. A-Rod’s exit came a week after Gary Sanchez was promoted and a day before Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin joined the team, as each player homered in their first at-bats. Now, as the Yankees and Rays open a four-game series at Yankees Stadium, New York has remained in the race for both the division and wild-card. The Yankees are 4 1/2 games out of first place and 2 1/2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, The 59-79 Rays own a better AL record than only the Twins and the team’s moneyline mark of minus-$2536 ranks 29th among 30 MLB teams (again, Minnesota is the only team worse). The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery for the Rays and veteran C.C. Sabathia (8-12, 4.20 ERA) takes the mound for the Yankees. Cobb’s first outing went well as he retired the final 10 hitters in his five-inning outing against Toronto while allowing two runs and four hits. "I was happy in the fact that I felt back to competitive nature on the mound," Cobb said. "It wasn't being cautious, wasn't thinking about my mechanics or injury possibilities. I was just out there, wanting to get outs and I felt the groove of the game again." Sabathia has had a poor season but has pitched well in recent outings, owning a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts plus has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six outings. The pick: Cobb’s last start in New York was back on September 11, 2014 but he owns a 1.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is 14-14 with a 3.79 ERA in 40 all-time starts vs. Tampa Bay (teams are 20-20) but as a Yankee he is 7-13 with a 4.35 ERA in 29 games against the Rays. That doesn’t bode well but his current form is good (see above) and the Yankees have won four in a row and 10 of their last 14 games. Cobb’s a quality and pitcher and looked very good in his first start back and I see a low scoring contest. The under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Pirates have played in three consecutive NL wild card games, each season finishing behind the Cards, who have won the NL Central each of the last three years. Here in 2016, the Cubs have run away with the NL Central, so both the Cards and Pirates have been left to fight for one of two NL wild card spots. As of Labor Day morning, the 73-63 Giants own the top wild card spot with the 71-64 Cards holding down the second spot, 1 1/2 games back of San Fran. The 71-66 Mets are one game back of St. Louis and the 67-67 Pirates, in the throes of a season-worst six-game losing streak, sit 3 1/2 games back of the Cards. The two division rivals open a three-game series this afternoon at PNC Park and it’s fair to say that the Pirates are getting desperate. The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (9-8, 4.53 ERA) will open the series for the Cards with Pittsburgh handing the ball to rookie Chad Kuhl (3-2, 3.70 ERA), who will be making his 10th major league  start. Wainwright has spent the season trying to prove he's still relevant. He opened the season poorly, going 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA in seven starts but then went 7-2 over a 12-start stretch (team was 9-3), while cutting more than two runs off his ERA (was down to 4.15 after a July 16th start). However, he enters this game winless in his last eight starts (he’s 0-3, the Cards are 4-4). Pittsburgh’s Kuhl is winless in his last three starts but he’s allowed three runs or less or in each of his last six starting assignments. The pick: Wainwright has a long history vs. the Pirates, going 14-7 with a 3.75 ERA in 28 all-time starts (Cards are 18-10), while Kuhl faces the Cards for the first time. I like what I’ve seen from Kuhl and believe he’s up to the challenge. The problem is, the Pirates have been shut out three times during their six-game slide and come off a three-game weekend series in Milwaukee in which they plated just four runs. The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Detroit Tigers have taken the first two games of their three-game series with the Chicago White Sox by scores of 4-3 and 8-4. The 71-61 Tigers sit 4 1/2 games out in the AL Central but just one game back for the AL's second wild card spot. As for Chicago, the season is over, as the White Sox are 12 games back in the same division and a 'healthy' 8 1/2 games out in the wild card chase. The pitching matchup:Chris Sale (15-7, 3.14 ERA) will take the mound for Chicago and Justin Verlander (14-7, 3.33 ERA) starts for Detroit. Sale has allowed three or less ERs in six of his last eight starts but has lost five his last six decisions (White Sox are 2-6 in the eight games). It seems like a lifetime ago that Sale was 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA after his first nine starts of 2016. In stark contrast, Verlander opened the season 2-3 with a 6.49 ERA after six starts but enters this contest on a run of nine consecutive quality starts. He's now 14-7 and his ERA has improved by more than three runs per outing! As noted above, while Sale has struggled to win lately, he's also allowed three ERs or less in six of his last eight starts. A look at Verlander's stat sheet and we find the last time the former Cy Young (and MVP) winner allowed more than ERs in game came back on June 26 (that's a stretch of 11 consecutive starts). The Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: The Giants came out of the All Star break with MLB’s best record (57-33) but after last night’s 9-5 loss in LA to the Dodgers, the Giants find themselves two games back of the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Francisco is now just three games inside the playoff ‘cut line,” which is what happens when a team goes a woeful 11-24 since the break, the worst record of any team in MLB! The Dodgers have caught the Giants, despite the fact that Clayton Kershaw has not taken the mound since June 26. What’s more, starting pitchers Brett Anderson (blister) and Scott Kazmir (neck inflammation) joined ace Clayton Kershaw (back) on the DL, yesterday. The pitching matchup: Johnny Cueto (14-3, 2.90 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco, opposed by Rich Hill (9-3, 2.25 ERA). Hill has been on the disabled list himself (because of a lingering left middle finger blister), since being acquired from Oakland on August 1. Expectations are high for Hill, who makes his debut for the Dodgers, against the hated-Giants. He was cleared for this start after throwing 78 pitches in a simulated game at the Dodgers’ training complex in Arizona last Thursday. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is eager to see Hill face off against the team’s most bitter divisional rival. “What attracted us to Rich at the deadline was his high-end potential,” Friedman told reporters. “We felt that he was a guy who could pitch very well against the best lineups in baseball.” The Giants are 19-6 (plus-$982) in Cueto’s starts this season but Cueto has won just once, over his last seven starts. The pick: However, that win came in his last outing, when he allowed one run over seven innings of an 8-1 victory. In his previous start, Cueto left with a 7-3 lead, only to see the Giants’ bullpen allow five runs in the final two innings of an 8-7 loss. I expect both pitchers to be “on their games” in this one and that makes the under a 10* play.

The set-up: The New York Mets will attempt to earn a split of their four-game series at San Francisco, after winning 9-5 Saturday afternoon at AT&T Park. The Giants had won 10-7 and 8-1 the first two games but a three-HR outburst led the way to yesterday’s victory. Yoenis Cespedes, who returned from a 15-day stint on the disabled list, had two of Saturday’s HRs for the Mets, with the first traveling 457 feet (one foot shy of the being the longest hit at AT&T Park this season!). The Giants will probably go without their hottest hitter and one of their best base-stealers in Angel Pagan on Sunday. He experienced tightness in his right groin while chasing a fly ball in Saturday's game and had to be pulled in the fourth inning. The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 2.76 ERA) goes for the Mets and Jeff Samardzija (10-8, 4.24 ERA) for the Giants. With injuries and struggles by a number of New York’s highly-touted starting rotation being the norm in 2016, Syndergaard has assumed the role of ace for this year’s pitching staff. However, Syndergaard has faced the Giants twice and lost both games, allowing eight ERs in 11 2/3 innings and his 6.17 ERA is his highest among teams against which he's started at least twice.Samardzija has struggled even more against the Mets than Syndergaard has against Giants. He has faced New York nine times in his career, three times as a starter, and has come away with an 0-3 record and 8.72 ERA. The record is Samardzija's worst against all opponents and the ERA is his second-highest among clubs against which he has started two more times. The pick: Noting all of the above, Syndrgaard owns an outstanding 2.60 road ERA this season (as well as a solid 1.12 WHIP) and Samardzija is off back-to-back solid outings (2.31 ERA). After three straight “overs” in this series, tonight’s Sunday finale figures to be a much lower scoring game. the Under is a 10* play.

The set-up: Chase Utley returns to Citizens Bank Park for the first time in an opposing uniform as the LA Dodgers visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night in the opener of a three-game series. Utley spent his first 13 seasons with the Phillies until he was shipped to the Dodgers at last year's trade deadline and he’ll return to the City of Brotherly Love with a team that is now just a half-game back of the SF Giants in the NL West, as the slumping Giants fell to 9-19 since the All Star break with an 8-5 home loss Monday against the Pirates. The 56-63 Phillies have never really been in the playoff race at any point this season but bettors are well aware of Philadelphia, as the Phillies rank 4th-best in the moneyline standings at plus-$788 (note: the overpriced Dodgers may be 13 games over .500 but their moneyline mark is minus-$414). The pitching matchup: Rookie Kenta Maeda (11-7, 3.31 ERA) gets the call for LA and Vince Velasquez (8-4, 3.94 ERA) goes for Philadelphia. Maeda enters on a four-start unbeaten streak and looks looks to beat the Phillies and Velasquez for the second time in a span of eight days (allowed three runs over five innings in a 9-3 win on August 9). In contrast, Velasquez is winless in five starts since the All-Star break, including allowing nine runs on 11 hits (both season-highs) over just 4 2/3 innings in that August 9 meeting. However, he does own a 1.72 ERA in nine home starts here in 2016. The pick:  Velasquez suffered a biceps strain that has caused him to miss several starts in June and July but he hasn’t missed any starts lately. As for LA, the Dodgers need Maeda to pitch deep into Tuesday's contest, after their last two starters failed to get through the second inning, taxing the bullpen for 15 1/3 innings Saturday and Sunday. Expect that to happen, as we note that Maeda is an impressive 7-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 road starts in 2016 (team is 8-3). Add in Velaquez's 1.72 home ERA this season and I can smell an under on Tuesday. Make it a top-rated 10* play. 

The set-up: The Pirates flew to San Francisco on Sunday night on the heels of taking two of three from the Giants' NL West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pittsburgh opens this three-game series at AT&T Park in a four-way race for the NL’s second wild card spot. The Cards lead the Marlins by a half-game, the Pirates by 1 1/2 games and the Mets by 2 1/2. The Giants lead the Dodgers by just one game in the NL West, after Sunday’s stunning 8-7 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The Giants took a 7-1 lead into the 7th inning with Cueto on the mound. He didn’t make it out of the 7th but SF still led 7-3 entering the 8th. However, the Orioles scored five times in the last two innings to come away with the victory. That game is indicative of the Giants’ struggles since the All Star break, which has seen them go a woeful 9-18. The pitching matchup:  Ex-Giant Ryan Vogelsong (1-2, 2.67 ERA) starts for the Pirates and the newly-acquired (from Tampa Bay) Matt Moore (7-8, 3.99 ERA) gets the nod for the Giants. Vogelsong played seven seasons for the Giants and went 48-49 with a 3.93 ERA over two stints. That includes 2012 and 2014, when he started seven games and went 3-0 in the postseason as the club was winning a pair of World Series. Vogelsong has spent most of the season working out of the bullpen but entered the starting rotation following the trade of Francisco Liriano to the Toronto Blue Jays. He's allowed just one ER in 12 innings over two starts against Atlanta and San Diego, although the Pirates lost both games (5-2 to the Braves and 4-0 to the Padres).Moore is seeking his first win with the Giants after allowing a total of four runs in two starts covering 12 innings since being traded from Tampa Bay for infielder Matt Duffy. Moore has never faced the Pirates. The pick: Vogelsong last faced the Giants as a starter back on August 12, 2004, when he was the losing pitcher for the Pirates in a 7-0 home loss. He expects a warm welcome Monday at AT&T Park but I’m not convinced he’ll have all that much success. As for Moore, while this looks like it’s going to be first fully healthy season since 2012 (his rookie year), it’s hardly been a dominant one. This over/under just feels too low. 10* play on the Over.

The set-up. The Mariners opened a three-game series vs. the A’s last night, entering on a six-game overall winning streak, as well as having won their last seven games in Oakland. However, “the going nowhere” A’s won 6-3, dropping Seattle 7 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West plus leaving them two back in the race for the AL’s second wild card spot. The 52-64 A’s can only play a spoiler role, the rest of the way. The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (13-7, 3.79 ERA) and Kendall Graveman (8-7, 4.29 ERA) square off on Saturday night. Both have become their respective teams’ ace here in 2016. Iwakuma leads Seattle in wins with 13 (no one else owns more than seven!) and makes his team-high 24th start Saturday, at least nine more starts than any other Mariner, including “King Felix.” The Mariners have used 12 starting pitchers this season. Graveman’s eight wins is tops on the A's and he makes his team-high 23rd start (that’s two more than Sonny Gray, who's on the DL, and at least six more than every other Oakland starter). Graveman is the only member of the A's original rotation who is on the active roster and the only one who hasn't spent time on the disabled list. The pick: Graveman is 7-1 with a 3.67 ERA in his past 13 starts (team is 10-3) and he's 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his past five home starts, all Oakland wins. However, after opening 1-4 through his first eight starts (team was 3-5), Iwakuma is 12-3 over his last 15 starts, earning a decision in each outing! He’s 7-4 with a .89 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Oakland (team is 7-5). Graveman has allowed 17 hits over 10 2/3 innings in two starts this year against Seattle (5.06 ERA) and this total is too low. 10* on the over.

The set-up: The Mets lost 5-3 to the D’backs last night, failing to follow up Sunday’s win over the Tigers. New York has not won consecutive games since July 7-8. The team is 10-17 since its last "winning streak" and the 57-55 Mets are now 2 1/2 games behind the Miami Marlins in the race for the National League's second wild card spot. Meanwhile, the 46-66 D’backs are dead-last in the NL West (17 1/2 games out) and only the Braves owns a worse record among all NL teams. Good news for Arizona was the return of Zack Greinke came off the DL on Tuesday (1st appearance since June 28), as he posted a quality start (6 IP / 5 hits / 3 ERs) in earning his 11th win. The pitching matchup: Arizona’s Robbie Ray (5-11, 4.83 ERA) will square off against New York’s ageless Bartolo Colon (10-6, 3.46 ERA). The 43-year-old Colon earned his 10th victory in his most recent start last Thursday, allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings as the Mets beat the New York Yankees 4-1. He now owns four seasons of double-digit wins since turning 40. The only other pitchers with many such seasons are Phil Niekro (7), Jamie Moyer and Jack Quinn (6), and Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan (4). In this start vs. Arizona, he is looking to become the 17th player to beat all 30 teams (note: he has made just two career starts against the Diamondbacks, who began play in 1998). Ray comes into this start battling a rough stretch with losses in three straight starts. He was lit up for six runs (five earned) on eight hits and a pair of walks in six innings against Washington on August 2. His ERA over those three losses is 7.02. The pick: New York’s lineup should have little trouble against Ray and while Colon continues to defy his age,  I don’t see him shutting down the D’backs, either. 10* play on the over. 

The set-up: LA Dodgers pitching ace Clayton Kershaw (herniated disk) went on the 60-day disabled list earlier this week and isn't expected back until September. Bud Norris, who was recently acquired from the Atlanta Braves in a trade, was put on the 15-day DL on Saturday with a mild back strain. The rotation took another hit Saturday before the team’s game with Boston, when newly acquired starter Rich Hill was bumped from his scheduled start Sunday when "remnants" of another blister were found on his middle pitching finger after the left-hander played catch Friday, manager Dave Roberts said. However, the Dodgers took the field and bested the Red Sox 3-0, after losing 9-0 on Friday night. The Red Sox are two games back of first-place in the AL East and just a half-game out in the wild card race. The Dodgers have closed to within two games of the Giants in the NL West and own the NL’s No. 1 wild card spot, four games clear of missing out on the postseason. The pitching matchup: David Price (9-7, 4.30 ERA) gets the start for Boston and replacing Rich Hill for LA will be Brandon McCarthy (2-2, 2.76 ERA). Price was cruising through seven innings in his last outing (no runs thru seven innings) but then surrendered a leadoff HR in the eighth plus allowed three more runs in that inning without recording an out. The former Cy Young Award winner is just 9-7 (4.30 ERA) on the season and the Red Sox are now 11-12 in his 2016 starts, losing $937 at $100 per game (NOT what the team expected). McCarthy, coming off Tommy John surgery, didn’t return to the mound in 2016 until July 3 and has made a modest six starts.  He’s taken the loss in each of his last two, failing to record an out in the fifth inning of either outing. The pick: The Red Sox rank first in all of MLB in runs scored (5.44 per), batting average (.284) and OPS (.817). Coming off a shutout, they should be dangerous. As for Price, his “consistent inconsistency” is giving Boston management fits. The over/under number is too low. 10* play on the over. 

The set-up: The small-market Indians are the team in first-place and Cleveland is also the team which made some trade deadline moves, while the biggest market team of all (NY Yankees), moved quality veterans with a an eye to the future. However, it was the the rebuilding Yankees who struck first in this three-game series, jumping out to leads of 6-0 and 11-4, before walking a way with a 13-7 victory on Friday. The win give the Yanks a 55-54 record but still leaves them 7 1/2 games out in the AL East, as well as 5 1/2 games out in the wild card race. The Indians remain atop the NL Central but Cleveland has lost four of five games (outscored 50-32) and its lead has been to cut to two games over the Tigers. The pitching matchup: Corey Kluber (10-8, 3.27 ERA) takes on CC Sabathia (6-8, 4.15 ERA) in a meeting of former Cy Young winners. Kluber won recently (in 2014), while C.C’s win was back in 2007. Kluber threw seven shutout innings in his last start, an 8-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics. He has now allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts, a stretch in which he's lowered his ERA from 3.79 to a season-low 3.27. In contrast, Sabathia is hoping to snap out of a prolonged slump. He has failed to deliver a quality start in seven of his last eight outings, a stretch in which he's gone 1-4 with a 6.85 ERA that has seen his overall ERA has increase from 2.20 to 4.15. The pick: The Indians have stayed at the top of the AL Central for most of the season because of its pitching but as noted, Cleveland has allowed 50 runs over its last five games, with its starters having allowed 30 runs in just 17 1/3 innings! Cleveland’s staff has been solid for most of this season plus Kluber comes in pitching well (1.24 ERA over his last four) but the Yankees lineup has been unfazed by the Indians in 2016, averaging 7.6 RPG in five meetings. Remembering that Sabathia has given up five runs or more in six of his last eight starts and that the Indians rank 4th in runs scored (5.02 per game), the play here is on the over (10*).

The Chicago White Sox will visit Minnesota Twins for the opener of a three-game set at Target Field Friday night. Recent meetings in Minnesota have been low-scoring affairs, and I think that will be the case tonight as well.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The White Sox hand the ball to Jose Quintana (8-8, 2.97 ERA) who has been excellent all season long. He tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Tigers his last start and he has held three of his last four opponents to one run or fewer.  The Twins counter with Ricky Nolasco (4-8, 5.40) who had allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his three starts in July before getting lit up at Fenway Park his last turn. 2. The White Sox's Bats - Chicago has mustered only one run in each of its last two games and the team is averaging a lowly 3.94 runs per game on the road this season.  3. X-Factor - Quintana has posted a 2.70 ERA in three meetings with Minnesota this season.  Selection: This is a play on CHW@MIN to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays defeated San Diego by a score of 4-2 last night, and we might see another pitcher's duel here in Game 2. Marcus Stroman appears to have his swagger back, and he faces a light hitting Padres lineup. We see an inflated number, and my money is on the total to go under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Stroman (8-4, 4.90 ERA) gave up one run on eight hits over eight innings in a win at Arizona in his last start. He's held the opposition to just three runs on eight hits over his last two home starts. The Padres will counter with former ace Andrew Cashner, who has held opponents to just one run in three of his last four starts.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Toronto has hit a combined .148 in previous meetings with Cashner. They managed just four hits while striking out eight times over 27 at bats.

3. X-Factor - The Jays have failed to reach the total in eight of their last nine home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Padres@Jays to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Atlanta Braves will take on Colorado Rockies for the third contest of a three-game set Saturday night. None of the previous games in the series have been fairly low-scoring affairs, but I think the crowd at Coors Field will see plenty of action over home plate in this contest.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Braves hand the ball to Matt Wisler (4-9, 4.67 ERA) who's been knocked around for 12 runs (11 earned) in 10 innings through his past two starts, both on the road. Wisler has a 5.23 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) outside of Atlanta for the season and is likely to struggle at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. The Rockies counter with 26 year old rookie Tyler Anderson (2-3, 3.43) who will make his eighth start in the big leagues. Anderson is off his worst start of his brief career when he conceded four runs on five hits and three walks in 6 1/3 innings against the Rays here in the Rocky Mountains.  2. Mark Wegner Behind Home Plate - The over is 17-5-2 in Wegner's last 24 games calling the shots and 5-2 in his last seven games involving Colorado. 3. X-Factor - Colorado's bullpen has a 4.97 ERA for the season and Atlanta's is only slightly better with a 4.30 mark.  Selection: This is a play on ATL@COL to go over the total (10*)

The Cleveland Indians started the week by scoring a total of 22 runs while taking two of three from their division rival Kansas City. The O's have struggled to score runs since the All Star break but put four on the board in a 4-1 win against the Yankees yesterday. I think we'll see a high-scoring contest between the Birds and the Tribe Friday night.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Orioles hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (2-2, 3.70) who'll make his second career start in the majors. His first was a forgettable one when he conceded four runs on five hits and three walks with three homers in just 3 1/3 innings at Tampa Bay. Cleveland counters with Trevor Bauer (7-3, 3.36) who's struggled in his two most recent starts, surrendering a total of nine runs (eight earned) on 15 hits and five walks in 11 2/3 innings of work.  2. The Orioles Are Getting Healthy - Baltimore has been hit hard with injuries and illness lately, but Manny Machado who has been knocked out by a virus was back in the lineup Thursday and Mark Wieter and Adam Jones could be back for tonight's contest.  3. X-Factor - The over is 8-2-2 in the Indians last 12 overall. Selection: This is a play on CLE@BAL to go OVER the total (10*)

Runs came at a premium when the Houston Astros won the opener of a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners 2-1 yesterday. I think we'll see another low-scoring affair Tuesday night as the series at Minute Maid Park continues.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (5-9, 5.13). The reigning American League Cy Young winner has bounced back from a terrible start to the year and has held opponents to seven earned runs over 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts. Keuchel's season ERA is more than one run lower home in Houston than on the road. The Mariners counter with Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.29 ERA). He missed a start due to a foot injury but came back strong to hold the Orioles to one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 win his last outing. Walker has posted a 2.00 ERA in two meetings with Houston this year.  2. Batter Versus Pitcher -  Taijuan Walker has posted a 3.98 ERA in 10 career starts against the Astros, but he has done well against several of their current big bats. Carlos Correa (2-for-9), George Springer (3-for-13) and Luis Valbuena (2-for-11) have all struggled to solve the right-hander.  3. X-Factor - The under is 9-3-1 in the Astros' last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-1 in their last six home games overall.  Selection: This is a play on SEA@HOU to go UNDER the total (10*)

full analysis soon

Oakland edged out the Angels in with a walkoff hit in the bottom on the ninth in a 3-2 win last night, but I expect more scoring this afternoon. The Athletics are dead last in the AL West, and they've won just three of their last 13 overall. My money is on the OVER.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Two time Cy Young winner and World Series champion Tim Lincecum will be back on the mound in the major leagues with the Angels. He's been pitching well in Triple A, striking out eight in seven innings of one-run ball in his last start. He draws a favorable match-up starting opposite a rookie right-hander coming out of the Oakland bullpen for a spot start.

2. Bullpens - Neither starter is expected to go deep into this game, and that means the relief pitchers will likely play a big role. Oakland's bullpen ranks near the bottom of the majors with a combined 4.70 ERA.

3. X-Factor - The Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings.

Selection: This is a play on LAA@OAK to go OVER the total (10*)

The Mariners played a 13 inning marathon in Tampa last night, losing by a score of 3-2. I think we'll see another pitcher's duel at "The Trop" here on Thursday afternoon. My money is on the under in Game 3 in St. Petersburg.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Mariners will send southpaw James Paxton to the mound, and he's been sharp in three appearances this season. Paxton (0-2, 2.25 ERA) held the Rangers scoreless through 6.1 innings, fanning seven in a no-decision in his last outing. He has 24 strikeouts in just 16 innings pitched so far. The Rays counter with rookie Blake Snell, who dazzled in his big league debut.

2. Evan Longoria - The veteran leads Tampa in home runs (16), batting average (.278), as well as RBIs (40). He left last night's game with an injury, and his status is in doubt for the series finale.

3. X-Factor - The under is 21-8-1 in Tampa's last 30 home games.

Selection: This is a play on SEA@TB to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Marlins scored five times in the top of the first inning in last night's win at PETCO, and they may get off to another fast start here in the series finale Wednesday afternoon. The Padres turn to a struggling pitcher, and their defense hasn't done them any favors either. San Diego's fielding percentage of .981 ranks 28th in the major leagues.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - With Tyson Ross on the DL and James Shields traded to Chicago, 23 year old right-hander Luis Perdomo is getting a shot in the rotation. So far it's been nothing short of a disaster, as he's conceded 10 runs on 18 hits over 10 innings in two starts since coming out of the bullpen. He wasn't exactly effective as a reliever either, posting an ERA of 10.17 in nine appearances in the month of April.

2. San Diego's Bullpen - The Padres relief pitchers have posted an ERA of 4.68 so far this season. The only two teams that rank worse are Cincinnati and Texas, and at least they have the excuse of pitching in a hitter's park.

3. X-Factor - The Marlins have gone over the total in seven of their last 10 on the road, and the OVER is 6-2 in Nicolino's last 8 starts overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Marlins@Padres to go OVER the total (1st 5 innings).

The Reds have defeated Oakland by an identical 2-1 score in each of the first two games in this series. With both teams turning to the back end of the rotation in the series finale, I expect to see a lot more offense today. My money is on the over for the 1st five innings of play.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Oakland will send Kendall Graveman to the mound, and the 25 year old has been getting hit hard lately. Graveman (2-6, 5.49 ERA) was roughed up in a 6-5 loss to Houston in his last outing, surrendering five runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings. He's a woeful 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA on the road in 2016.

2. Fielding - The Reds rank dead last in the majors with a fielding percentage of .978. Oakland isn't much better, ranking 25th overall.

3. X-Factor - The over is 14-6-2 in Reds last 22 home games versus a right-handed starter.

Selection: This is a play on OAK@CIN to go OVER (1st 5 innings)

The Cincinnati Reds failed to continued their recent surge with a 7-6 win in the opener of a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday. Their bats have been on fire lately, and I think we'll see another action-packed contest involving the Reds tonight.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to the struggling Alfredo Simon (2-5, 8.94). He was lucky to receive the decision last start despite surrendering four runs on five hits with three home runs in seven innings of an 11-4 win at Colorado. The Cardinals counter with Jaime García (4-5, 3.48 ERA). The southpaw has posted a 3.50 ERA over 19 career appearances (17 starts) against the Reds, and I don't like his chances of improving on that number tonight.  2. Cincinnati's Bats - The Reds have scored a total of 48 runs in their past five games. Their .614 slugging percentage here in June is the best mark in the majors for the month by quite some distance.   3. X-Factor - Billy Hamilton is on fire with three three-hit games in his last eight appearances.  Selection: This is a play on STL@CIN to go OVER the total (10*)

The St. Louis Cardinals wrapped up the weekend with a pair of wins against the Giants in which they outscored their opponent 13-7. The Cincinnati Reds have heated up in recent games, and I think we'll see plenty of action over home plate early in Tuesday's match-up.
 
Here are my keys to the game:
 
1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to John Lamb (1-3, 5.58) who recorded his first win of the season his last start while holding the Rockies to one run in seven innings. He had allowed 16 runs in 13 2/3 frames in his past three starts prior to that performance. The Cardinals counter with Mike Leake (4-4, 3.82 ERA) who has done well in recent outings, but a return to Great American Ballpark might bring out some bad memories. Leake posted a 4.31 ERA in 86 appearances there while with the Reds between 2010-2015.
 
2. Cincinnati's Bats - The Reds had scored a total of 33 runs over four straight victories prior to a 10-9 defeat in the series finale of a three-game set against the Nats on Sunday. Their .597 slugging percentage here in June is the best mark in the majors for the month.
 
3. X-Factor - The Cardinals' Jhonny Peralta is expected to make his season debut after injuring his thumb in Spring Training.
 
Selection: This is a play on STL@CIN 1st 5 Innings OVER (10*)

The Atlanta Braves are tied with the Minnesota Twins for the worst record in baseball this season. Runs have not come easy for the team, but the pitching match-up in Monday's series-opener against the San Diego Padres combined with a low number makes me believe we'll see enough runs to push this game over the total. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Christian Friedrich (2-1, 2.53), The left-hander was rewarded with the win his last start despite surrendering four runs (three earned) on nine hits and four walks in five innings against Seattle as he was provided with plenty of run support in the 14-6 victory. He has posted a 7.36 ERA in five career relief appearances against Atlanta which counters with Williams Perez (2-1, 3.86 ERA). Perez has split two career starts against the Padres while allowed five runs (four earned) on 11 hits over 13 1/3 frames. The 25 year old conceded four runs in 5 2/3 innings his last outing.  
2. Previous Meetings - The over is 39-13-3 in the last 55 meetings in San Diego and 6-2 in the past eight overall. 
3. X-Factor - The Padres' bullpen has a 4.94 ERA on the season and Atlanta's a 4.40 ERA, both among the worst marks in the majors. 
Selection: This is a play on ATL@SD to go OVER the total 1st 5 innings (10*)

The Cincinnati Reds have among the worst records in baseball this season, but they've made some noise lately entering Sunday riding a four-game winning streak. The Washington Nationals can't be happy at all about the prospect of getting swept by the Reds, and I think we'll see plenty of action over home plate today.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Tanner Roark (4-4, 2.70 ERA) who has pitched pretty well lately. The right-hander has however served up home runs in four straight outings, and Brandon Phillips is 3-for-6 with a homer off Roark in previous meetings. Cincinnati counters with Jon Moscot (0-3, 7.13) who will make his second start since returning from the disabled list. Moscot was lit up for seven runs on eight hits with four (!) home runs in just two innings of a 17-4 loss at Coors Field in his comeback.   2. Trends - The over is 5-2-1 in the Nats last eight overall and 6-1-2 in the Reds'. Over is 17-5-4 in Cincy's last 26 games following a win and 6-1 in Washington's last seven following a loss. 3. X-Factor - Cincinnati has scored 31 runs over its four-game win streak.  Selection: This is a play on WAS@CIN 1st Half OVER (10*)

The Cincinnati Reds ended an 11-game skid with a 7-6 win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday. Each of the last four meetings have gone over the total and I think we'll see the two teams run up the score early in Sunday's contest.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Brandon Finnegan (1-3, 3.97 ERA) who surrendered five runs (three earned) on seven hits with three home runs in five innings of a 13-7 loss against Milwaukee on May 7 without factoring in the decision. The Brewers counter with Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 2.92 ERA) who tossed opposite Finnegan in that contest. Nelson lasted only five innings as well over which he was torched for six runs (five earned) on eight hits. 2. Poor Fielding - Only the Cardinals have committed more errors than the Reds' 41 this season. Milwaukee is also among the 10 worst in that category with 31 errors in 49 games. 3. X-Factor - Jay Bruce was 2-for-5 in Saturday's contest and he's 7-for-17 with three doubles and a pair of homers off Nelson.  Selection: This is a play on CIN@MIL 1st 5 innings to go OVER the total (8*)

The Brewers won Game 1 of this home series versus Cincinnati by a score of 9-5. I expect to see another slugfest Saturday, as two struggling pitchers take the mound in Game 2. My money is on the over for the first five innings of play.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds send Alfredo Simon to the mound, and he looks like he might be in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. Simon (1-5, 10.16 ERA) was torched for five runs on nine hits and three walks in a loss to Seattle in his last start. Before that he gave up 10 runs on 14 hits in just 4.1 innings in a loss to Cleveland. The Brewers counter with Chase Anderson, who hasn't been that much better.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Jonathan Lucroy was 2-for-4 with a home run last night, and he's 7-for-12 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Simon.

3. X-Factor - The over is 8-3 in Simon's last 11 road starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Reds@Brewers 1st 5 innings OVER (8*)

The Cubs handed the Giants a lopsided loss in the series opener in San Francisco last night, and I think we could see another slugfest here in Game 2 Saturday. Chicago ranks third in the major leagues in runs scored, and those big bats should be able to take advantage of a struggling San Francisco starter.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Matt Cain will get the call for the Giants, and he's coming off a solid outing. Cain (0-5, 5.87 ERA) allowed one run on seven hits over seven innings in a no decision at Arizona in his last outing. He's 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA at home this season, and he's 0-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his last four starts against the Cubs.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The over is 11-4-2 in Matt Cain's last 17 starts, and the Giants have lost his last four starts versus Chicago.

3. X-Factor - These teams have gone over in seven of the last 10 meetings, and the over is 8-3-1 in the Cubs last 12 road games.

Selection: This is a play on the Cubs@Giants to go OVER the total (10*)

The Reds won Game 1 of this home series versus Pittsburgh by a score of 3-2, but I think we should see more offense here with a couple of struggling pitchers on the mound in Game 2. Before yesterday's game, Cincinnati had gone over in five of seven during this home stand.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Juan Nicasio will get the call for the Pirates, and he's been brutal on the road. Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits and three walks in just 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs in his last outing. He's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. The Reds hand the ball to Alfredo Simon, who has already lost twice to the Pirates this season.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Brandon Phillips comes in swinging a hot bat, he's hitting .321 with five home runs and nine RBIs over the last seven days. The Reds second baseman is 5-for-11 with a home run lifetime versus Nicasio.

3. X-Factor - Nicasio is 0-2 with a 5.15 ERA in his last three starts versus the Reds.

Selection: This is a 10* play on the Pirates@Reds to go OVER the total (1st 5 innings).

The San Francisco Giants will be looking to deny the Colorado Rockies a split in this four-game series at AT&T Park on Sunday afternoon. The Giants pulled off an 13th inning win yesterday, but several factors would suggest that we will see more action over the plate today.  Here are my keys to the game:  1. Pitching - The Giants hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (4-1, 3.32) who is coming off his best start in a Giants uniform when he tossed eight innings of one-run ball at Cincinnati on Tuesday. The Shark was not quite as successful his last outing in San Francisco when he conceded five runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings on April 27. Samardzija has made two day starts in 2016, giving up a total of eight runs in 11 innings. The Rockies counter with Eddie Butler (0-1, 6.75 ERA) as the 25 year old is set to make his third start of the year. Butler surrendered five runs on four hits with a pair of homers in a 6-3 loss at San Diego his last start.  2. Taxed Bullpens - The Rockies used six relievers in yesterday's contest while the Giants asked five pitchers to come out of the bullpen in yesterday's marathon game. Hardly ideal for today as both teams bullpens rank in the bottom third of the majors.  3. X-Factor - The over is 13-3 in the Giants last 16 overall and eight of their past 10 home at AT&T Park have gone over the total. Selection: This is a play on COL@SF to go OVER the total (8*)

The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a 7-4 win over San Francisco in the final game of a three game set at home, and they will host Milwaukee in Game 1 of a new series tonight. Cincinnati hit four home runs in last night's game, and three of the Reds last four games have seen the total reach double-digits. I expect to see another slugfest in Cincinnati tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds send Alfredo Simon to the mound, still in search of his first "W" of the season. Simon (0-3, 13.50 ERA) gave up three runs on six hits and four walks over just four innings in a loss to the Pirates in his last start. The Brewers will counter with 28 year old right-hander Chase Anderson, who is 1-3 with a 5.55 ERA so far. Anderson was lit up for six runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami in his most recent appearance.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Milwaukee's catcher Jonathan Lucroy was 4-for-11 with a home run and four RBIs in three games against the Angels, and he's had no troubles hitting Simon. Lucroy is 6-for-10 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus the veteran.

3. X-Factor - The Reds bullpen owns a major league worst 6.44 ERA so far this season.

Selection: This is a 9* play on the Brewers@Reds to go OVER the total (1st 5 innings)

10* play on UNDER Rockies/Diamondbacks.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a half a game back of first place San Francisco in the NL West, and only a half game up on the Colorado Rockies. Arizona lost Game 1 of this home series versus the Rockies by a score of 9-0, but we should see a much different outcome with Arizona sending it's ace to the mound in Game 2. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Zack Greinke will get the nod for the home team, and he's coming off a shaky performance. Greinke (2-2, 6.10 ERA) gave up seven runs on 11 hits over 6.2 innings in a win over St. Louis in his last start. The veteran has seen plenty of Colorado in recent seasons, and he's 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 11 starts against them. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Colorado slugger Nolan Arenado hit a home run in Game 1 of this series, but he's struggled against Greinke. Arenado is 5-for-27 (.187) with three strikeouts lifetime versus the former Dodger. 

3. X-Factor - The Rockies will send Chris Rusin to the mound, and they've failed to reach the total in six of his last eight starts. 

Selection: This is a play on the Rockies@Arizona to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Kansas City Royals made the most of the home-advantage in the World Series last night when they tied the game at the bottom of the ninth to give themselves the chance to eventually win the game in extra-innings. We saw a total of nine runs scored, but I don't think runs will come quite as easy for either team here in Game 2. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Mets hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA) who has won each of his three starts here in the post-season while yielding only a total of four runs on 15 hits and an amazing 27 strikeouts over 21 innings of work. This will be the deGrominator's first meeting with the Royals and don't be surprised if it takes a while for them to figure him out, if they ever do. The Royals counter with Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44 ERA) who lasted only two innings at Toronto on Oct. 19 in his last start when he was torched for eight runs on six hits and four walks. He held Houston to just two runs on two hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings his last start here at Kauffman Stadium though and he has a .230 BAA versus the current Mets roster.
2. Situational - Each of deGrom's last four starts have gone under the total and the under is 5-1-1 in the Royals last seven inter-league games.
3. X-Factor - New York's Daniel Murphy failed to homer for the first time in seven postseason games Tuesday. He's might struggle to start another streak tonight as he's just 3-for-17 in previous meetings with Cueto. 
Selection: This is a play on the Mets@Royals to go under the total (10*)

The Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays have split back-to-back slug-fests at Rogers Centre. The Royals have a commanding 3-1 lead in the series though and I think runs will come at a premium for both sides in this do-or-die game for the Jays. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA) who tossed six scoreless innings of two-hit ball in the ALCS opener. He held Toronto to just three runs over 11 1/3 innings of work over two regular-season meetings as well and has done his best work in afternoon-games this season. The Blue Jays counter with Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) who conceded three runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings when tossing opposite Volquez five days ago. He handled the Royals well over the two regular-season meetings though conceding only four runs over 12 1/3 frames.  
2. Batter versus Pitcher - At first glance Volquez .268 BAA versus Toronto doesn't look that impressive, but he's handled their big bats well. Troy Tulowitzki is just 3-for-14 in previous meetings, Ben Revere is hit-less over eight at bats while Jose Bautista has just three hits over 17 at bats. 
3. X-Factor - Six of Estrada's last eight home starts have gone under the total.
Selection: This is a play on KC@TOR to go under the total (10*)

The Toronto Blue Jays erased an 0-2 deficit versus Texas in the ALDS, and won Game 5 at home in one of the wildest games any of us have ever seen. The Royals were also on the ropes, and their bats bailed them out in Game 4 in Houston, before they took the deciding Game 5 at home. I expect to see fireworks when these two hot teams meet in Game 1.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Jays hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who lost his only start at Kansas City during the regular season. Estrada pitched well in Game 3 at Texas, allowing just one run on five hits over 6 1/3 innings. The Royals counter with Edinson Volquez, who lost his only start in the Division Series. He was tagged for three runs on five hits and four walks over 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 at Houston.

2. Previous History - The Jays have gone over the total at a rate of 8-1-2 in their last 11 overall, and 19-7-1 in their last 27 on the road.

3. X-Factor - Chris Colabello is swinging a hot bat for the Jays, batting .375 with a home run and a pair of RBIs in the Division Series. He's 1-for-4 with a home run lifetime versus Volquez.

Selection: This is a play on Toronto@KC to go OVER the total (10*) 

The New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers are tied at 2-2 of this NLDS and will play a deciding Game 5 at Dodger Stadium Thursday. The winner will face the Cubs in the NLCS, and I think we'll see a tight low-scoring contest with two real studs on the mound. 
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Mets hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA) who has been dominant all season long and opened his post-season career by hurling seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball here at Dodger Stadium in the series-opener. He held the Dodgers to two hits over 7 2/3 innings of work in the regular-season and has a .175 BAA over 57 at bats versus them. The Dodgers counter with Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 ERA) who held the Mets to two runs on five hits in seven innings of a 5-2 win in Game 2 of the series. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts and conceded only two runs in 14 innings over two regular-season meetings with the Mets this year. 
2. Situational - The under is 4-1 in the Mets last five games following an off day and six of their last eight overall have gone under the total. The under is 5-2 in the Dodgers last seven playoff games and 11-2 in Greinke's last 13 starts with four days of rest. 
3. X-Factor - The Mets had just three hits in Tuesday's 3-1 loss and their .206 batting average in the post-season is the worst of all teams in the divisional series. 
Selection: This is a play on NYM@LAD to go under the total (10*)

The New York Mets won an action-packed game 13-7 last night to take a 2-1 lead of this NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. We're likely to see much less action over the plate in tonight's contest as the Dodgers are looking to stay alive in the series with their ace on the mound. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Dodgers hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA) who conceded three runs on four hits and four walks over 6 2/3 innings in the series-opener. He also recorded 11 strikeouts in the 3-1 loss though and had 18 strikeouts over 16 innings of work with just one run allowed versus the Mets in the regular-season. The Mets counter with Steven Matz who made six regular-season starts here in his rookie-season while posting a 2.27 ERA. One of those starts were against the Dodgers who the left-hander held to two hits over six scoreless innings.  
2. Situational - The under is 14-6 in Kershaw's last 20 starts overall and Under is 7-2 in his last nine starts against the Mets who have a 14-5 under trend in their last 19 playoff home games going.
3. X-Factor - Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes and Travis d'Arnaud are a combined 3-for-22 in previous meetings with Kershaw. 
Selection: This is a play on LAD@NYM to go under the total (10*)  

The Chicago Cubs are coming into the National League Wild Card game on the back of eight consecutive victories, much thanks to outstanding pitching. The Pirates pitching staff finished the regular season with the second-best ERA, much thanks to their ace Gerrit Cole. Runs won't come easy for either team here and I think we'll see this game go under the set total.
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Cubs hand the ball to the phenomenal Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) who is off three consecutive shutout performances spanning 22 innings over which he's yielded just a total of six hits and one walk while fanning 27 batters. He's been efficient all around all season, but has been particularly dominant on the road and in night games. The Pirates counter with Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60 ERA) who is off three straight quality starts. The under is 14-6-1 in Cole's last 21 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and he has posted a 2.13 ERA over four meetings spanning 25 1/3 innings against the Cubs this season. 
2. Batter versus Pitcher - Jake Arrieta has held the Pirates to four runs (three earned) on 18 hits over 36 innings of work this season, limiting them to a .151 team batting average. 
3. X-Factor - The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Selection: This is a play on the Cubs@Pirates to go under the total (10*)

The New York Yankees closed out the regular season with six losses in their last seven games. The Houston Astros won six of their last eight but that was still not enough to catch the Yankees meaning the Bronx Bombers will enjoy the home-field advantage here in the one and only AL Wild Card game. There will be extreme pressure on the batters, and runs are likely to come at premium with two elite pitchers on the mound. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA) who wrapped up the regular season with three wins while allowing only four runs on 14 hits over 20 2/3 innings of work. He's held the Yankees to four hits with 21 strikeouts over 16 innings this season. The Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51 ERA) who surrendered four runs on five his in five innings against the Red Sox his last start. He had conceded only three runs on 15 hits over 21 innings in his last three starts prior though. 
2. Situational - Six of the Yankees last eight playoff games have gone under the total and the under is 5-1 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter. Keuchel has the Yankees limited to a .206 team batting average over 97 at bats.  
3. X-Factor - Only four of the last 16 head-to-head meetings have gone over the total. 
Selection: This is a play on Houston@NYY to go under the total (10*)

Only one of the Toronto Blue Jays last eight games have failed to go over seven runs and we should see plenty of action over the plate here in game 2 of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Jays have already claimed the division but are looking to stay ahead of the Royals for the best record in the American League, and are likely to field a strong lineup. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Blue Jays hand the ball to Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.15 ERA and he's struggled with the long-ball of late yielding seven homers over his last six games and 11 over his last nine. That does not bode well facing a Tampa Bay team that has reached the seats nine times in its last six games. The Rays counter with Chris Archer (12-13, 3.26 ERA) who was torched for nine runs on 10 hits and five walks with a pair of homers in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-8 loss to the Jays on Sept. 26. He's posted a 6.58 ERA in five starts since Aug. 31. 
2. Bruce Dreckman - Today's umpire has called four straight overs, and the over is 4-1 in his last five games behind home plate versus Toronto and 5-2 in his last seven games behind home plate versus Tampa Bay.
3. X-Factor - Ben Revere was 3-for-4 last night and is a perfect 3-for-3 with a double in previous meetings with Archer. 
Selection: This is a play on TOR@TB to go over the total (10*)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will close out the regular-season with a three-game set against the San Diego Padres home at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers may have claimed the division title but are still battling with the Mets for post-season home-field advantage and I think we'll see both sides playing a competitive and high-scoring game tonight.  Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Casey Kelly (0-1, 9.00 ERA) who will make his third appearance (second start) of the season. He surrendered six runs on six hits in five innings of a 6-3 home-loss to Arizona his last start, which was the first since Sept. 2012. The Dodgers counter with Alex Wood (11-12, 3.89 ERA) who conceded a joint season-high eight runs on 11 hits and a pair of walks over 5 1/3 innings of a 12-5 loss at Colorado his most recent start. The current Padres roster has a combined .303 batting average over 33 at bats versus Wood.  2. Trends - Only one of the Padres' last 27 road games have failed to fly over the total and the over is 13-2-3 in their last 18 during game 1 of a series. The over is 4-1 in the Dodgers' last five when hosting a team with a losing road record. 3. X-Factor - Adrian Gonzalez has 16 RBIs and seven homers over 16 meetings with the Padres this season.  Selection: This is a play on SD@LAD to go over the total (10*)

The Mariners have lost five straight on the road, and they return home to host Houston in a three game series starting tonight. The Astros are still very much alive in the AL West, trailing Texas by just 2.5 games with six games to play. The total for tonight's game looks a little low, and I think we'll see some runs at Safeco in Game 1.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Lance McCullers, who has lost five in a row. McCullers (5-7, 3.22 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits, including a pair of home runs in a 4-3 home loss to the Angels in his last outing. He's 1-6 with a 4.88 ERA on the road this season. The Mariners counter with Roenis Elias, who has been hit hard by the Astros.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Evan Gattis was 2-for-4 in yesterday's win over Texas, and he's 4-for-9 with a home run lifetime versus Elias.

3. X-Factor - The over is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Selection: This is a play on the Astros@Mariners to go OVER the total (10*) 

The AL East is still very much up for grabs as the Yankees and the Blue Jays play Game 2 of a three game series in Toronto on Tuesday. The Jays hold a 3.5 game lead, but with a dozen games remaining the race is far from over. With a pair of quality pitchers on the mound in a high stakes game at Rogers Center tonight, I expect a low scoring tilt.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Yankees hand the ball to Luis Severino, who has won four of his last five starts. The rookie right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in four starts on the road so far. He lost his only previous start in Toronto, but it was a quality start allowing three runs in six innings. The Jays counter with Marco Estrada, who is 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 12 starts.

2. Previous History - Both teams have struggled at the plate in the season series, with nine of the last 12 head to head meetings falling short of the total. The Jays have seen the total go under in 12 of their last 17 home games.

3. X-Factor - The Yankees are batting an American League worst .221 in the month of September.

Selection: This is a play on the Yankees@Jays to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The Washington Nationals have completely collapsed, and they now sit 9.5 games back of New York in the NL East. After losing 2-of-3 in Miami, they begin a new series tonight in Philadelphia. The Phillies are coming off back-to-back home wins over the Cubs, and with a hot young pitcher on the mound tonight, we could see a pitcher's duel here in Philly.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who has impressed in his first 10 major league starts. Nola (6-2, 3.56 ERA) blanked the Braves through seven innings, fanning seven in a 5-0 home win over Atlanta in his last outing. He's 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts at Citizen's Bank Park. The Nationals counter with Jordan Zimmerman, who is 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA in 22 starts under the lights this year.

2. Bryce Harper - The National League MVP candidate suffered an injury that forced him to leave last night's game, and his status remains uncertain for tonight's game. He's been struggling, just 4-for-20 in his last six games.

3. X-Factor - Zimmerman is 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA in his last six starts versus Philly.

Selection: This is a play on the Nationals@Phillies to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The Mets have won the first two games of this series in Washington, and they look to complete the sweep tonight. The first two games of this series saw plenty of scoring, but I think tonight's game will be a pitcher's duel. Given the scheduled starters, the total for this game looks a little high.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jacob deGrom will be on the mound for the Mets, and he's coming off back-to-back losses. He's 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last nine starts, and the Mets have won his last two starts versus Washington. The Nats counter with Stephen Strasburg, who has won three straight. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last five starts.

2. Previous History - The Mets have seen the total fail to reach the number in each of deGrom's last six road starts. He's 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in those contests

3. X-Factor - Bryce Harper is 0-for-8 in this series so far, and he's batting just .218 in the season series.

Selection: This is a play on the Mets@Nats to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The Colorado Rockies will take on the Padres at PETCO Park on Monday, and this will be a battle of two of the bottom feeders in the NL West. The Rockies have lost seven of their last eight versus San Diego, and I expect to see a low scoring game here between two teams that are struggling to score runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Ian Kennedy, who is pitching quite well lately. Kennedy (8-12, 3.88 ERA) gave up a pair of runs on five hits while striking out a dozen over seven innings in a no-decision versus Texas his last time out. It was the second time in his last three starts that he had double-digit strikeouts, and he's  4-3 with a 2.35 ERA in his last nine starts. The Rockies counter with Kyle Kendrick, who allowed just one run in his last start.

2. Previous History - The Rockies have seen the total go under seven of their last nine overall, and 14 of their last 21 road games.

3. X-Factor - Colorado ranks dead last in the major leagues in runs scored on the road, batting just .234 away from Coors Field.

Selection: This is a play on the Rockies@Padres to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The Pittsburgh Pirates trail St. Louis by 6.5 games in the NL Central, and they have split the first two games of this weekend series at Busch Stadium. Last night's game was a pitcher's duel, and I think we'll see another low scoring tilt tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Cardinals will send John Lackey to the mound, and the veteran is having a fine season. Lackey (11-8, 2.87 ERA) gave up a pair of runs on four hits over six innings in a home win over Washington in his last outing. He's 8-3 with a 1.89 ERA in 14 home starts. The Pirates counter with left-hander Gerrit Cole, who is among the major league leaders with 15 wins.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - John Lackey is 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his last three starts versus the Pirates.

3. X-Factor - The Under is 8-2-1 in Gerrit Cole's last 11 starts away from Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are trending under at a rate of 34-14-4 in their last 52 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Pirates@Cardinals to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The St. Louis Cardinals will host Washington tonight, and this game looks destined to be a pitcher's duel. The Cardinals won both Games 1 & 2 by an identical score of 8-5, but I expect a lower scoring battle here in St. Louis tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Max Scherzer, who has been mired in a bit of a slump. Scherzer (11-11, 2.88 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits over seven innings in a home loss to Miami in his last start, and it was his fourth straight loss. While he lost to the Cardinals in the only previous meeting, he pitched well in that game, giving up a pair of runs on six hits over seven innings. The Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha, who is 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA at home, and 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA versus St. Louis this season. 

2. Previous History - While these teams have scored plenty of runs so far in this series, history tells us that this is the exception and not the norm. The under is 12-4-2 in the last 18 meetings in this series. 

3. X-Factor - The Under is 34-14-3 in Cardinals last 51 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Nats@Cardinals to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The New York Mets are coming into this contest looking to book a seventh consecutive win and complete a four-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies. Each of the first three games in the set have seen 11 runs or more scored and another slugfest seems likely tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Mets hand the ball to Jonathon Niese (8-9, 3.80 ERA) who was lit up for seven runs on 11 hits in just 5 1/3 innings of work at Coors FIeld his last start. He was still "rewarded" with the win though as the Mets offense bailed him out in the 14-9 victory. The Braves will counter with Aaron Harang (5-14, 4.67 ERA) who's off a rare strong outing when he held the Fish to two runs on two hits and four walks in seven innings his last start. He's still 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA in his last four outings and will have to slow down a Mets team that has been hitting .347 with an average of 10.7 runs over its last six games. 

2 .Trends - Nine of the Mets last 10 games and each of their last seven with the total set at 7.0-8.5 have gone over the total. The over is 26-6-4 in Phillies last 36 home games and 6-2 in their last eight with the total set at 7.0-8.5. 

3. X-Factor - The Mets' Michael Cuddyer is 7-for-10 with two homers, three doubles and a total of six RBIs over the first three games in this series. He's 3-for-14 with a double and a triple off Harang in previous match-ups.  

Selection: This is a play on  Mets@Phillies to go over the total (10*)

The Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies in a battle of bottom feeders here on Wednesday. The Rockies tied the series at 1-1 with a 5-1 win last night, but another win here in the rubber match is unlikely. The Braves will send a hot pitcher to the mound to try to silence the Colorado bats that rank dead last in the majors in runs scored on the road, batting .234 away from Coors Field. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Braves hand the ball to Shelby Miller who has pitched far better than his win/loss record would suggest. The 24 year old right-hander owns a minuscule 2.01 ERA in a dozen starts at Turner Field this season. The Rockies hand the ball to Yohan Flande, who is 3-0 with a 3.62 ERA since the All Star break. 

2. Atlanta's Offense - The Braves rank dead last in the major leagues in runs scored, and they are batting just .239 versus left-handed pitching. 

3. X-Factor - The under is 8-1 in Millers last nine starts overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Rockies@Braves to go UNDER the total (10*)

Nine of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park have one under the total, but I think the line is set way too low tonight. The Cubs have been swinging hot bats of late and I think we'll see a high-scoring game between two teams fighting for the Wild Card spots in the National League.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Cubs hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (15-6, 2.30 ERA) who by all means are having an impressive season. The 29 year old is off four straight wins and tossed six scoreless innings of a 7-1 home-win against the Braves his most recent start, but he conceded three runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 frames at U.S. Cellular Field his last road outing. Arrieta has yielded three walks in four of his last seven starts for a total of 17 over that span. The Giants will counter with Matt Cain (2-3, 5.66 ERA) who's allowed four runs or more in four of his last five starts while making it past to the sixth inning just once. He has a 7.32 ERA in four starts this month with just 12 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings of work.  

2. The Cubs Bats - Chicago has averaged 6.86 runs scored on its own over its last seven games behind a .277 batting average and eight of their last 10 games as a road favorite have sailed over the total. The over is 7-2 in Cain's last nine home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. 

3. X-Factor - The Giants have scored just 16 runs over their last six games (all away from home) but they've been up against the elite pitching staff of the Cardinals and the Pirates. Expect an offensive outbreak in front of the home-town crowd tonight.  

Selection: This is a play on CHC@SF to go over the total (10*)

The AL West-worst Oakland Athletics recorded their fourth win in six games when they defeated division-rivals the Seattle Mariners 11-5 last night. Another high-scoring encounter is in the cards Tuesday night as two unreliable pitchers will take the hill.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The A's hand the ball to Jesse Chavez (7-12, 3.75 ERA) who had posted a 6.57 ERA over five starts before holding the Dodgers to two runs in eight innings of a 5-2 home-win Wednesday. His road-ERA of 4.73 is almost two runs higher than his mark home in Oakland though and he's lost each of his last four starts against the Mariners behind a 4.75 ERA. The M's will counter with Mike Montgomery (4-6, 4.16) who is  0-4 with a 7.45 ERA in his last eight starts. The 26 year old left-hander held Oakland to run on six hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 2-1 win on July 5, but he'll face a revived Oakland offense here.  

2. Situational - Nine of Chavez's last 13 starts overall and three of his last four against Seattle have gone over the total. The same is true for 21 of the Mariners last 29 games at Safeco Field.  

3. X-Factor - The current members of the Mariners are batting .303 over 119 at bats against Chavez with Nelson Cruz going 5-for-11 with a double and a pair of homers.  

Selection: This is a play on OAK@SEA to go over the total (10*)

 The Arizona Diamondbacks had won four straight with a total of 26 runs scored before coming up short in a 5-3 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the opener of a four-game set Monday night. The Cardinals have scored 15 runs over their last two games and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate from both sides tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The D'backs hand the ball to Robbie Ray (3-9, 3.38) who had his scheduled start Monday pushed back a day to give him some extra rest. Ray last outing was on August 19 when he conceded three runs on seven hits in six innings of a 4-1 loss to the Pirates. He's surrendered three runs or more in each of his last four starts with one coming home at Arizona where he's 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA on the season. The Cardinals will counter with Jaime Garcia (5-4, 1.79 ERA) who's having an impressive season, but he conceded three runs on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings his most recent start. He allowed a season-high four runs (three earned) on eight hits in six innings against the D'backs back in May.  

2. Arizona's Bats - The hosts have averaged six runs per game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average, reaching the seats 10 times over that span. A.J. Pollock has been swinging an extremely hot bat and was named NL Player of the Week on Monday after going 12-for-29 August 17-23.  

3. X-Factor - 23 of Garcia's last 34 road starts (68%) with the total set in the 7.0-8.5 span have gone over the total.  

Selection: This is a play on STL@ARI to go over the total (10*)

The Chicago White Sox broke out of an offensive slump in an 8-2 win against the Los Angeles Angels Thursday and they beat the Mariners 11-4 in Seattle last night. We are likely to see more fireworks at Safeco tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The White Sox hand the ball to southpaw Carlos Rodon, who has been hit hard in three of his last four appearances. The 22 year old gave up a pair of home runs in loss to the Angels in his last start, and he's 2-3 with a 5.67 ERA in his last six starts. The Mariners will counter with Vidal Nuno, who comes out of the bullpen. 

2. Situational - Nine of the White Sox's last 11 away from home have sailed over the total and the over is 5-1 in the Mariners last five home games. 

3. X-Factor -  The Over is 18-5-3 in the Mariners last 26 home games. 

Selection: This is a play on CHW@SEA to go over the total (10*)

The Philadelphia Phillies have split the first two games of this series in Miami, and we have seen plenty of offense so far at Marlins Park. I expect another slugfest here tonight, as both teams send struggling pitchers to the mound. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Phillies will send Aaron Harang to the mound, and he's coming off three straight losses. Harang (5-15, 4.79 ERA) gave up six runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings in a loss at Milwaukee his last time out. He's 1-3 with an 8.55 ERA in his last four appearances. The Fish counter with Justin Nicolino, who is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in two starts at home. 

2 Previous History -  Five of the last six meetings in this series have gone over the total, and Miami has gone over at a rate of 17-4-1 in it's last 22 overall. 

3. X-Factor - Harang is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts versus Miami. 

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies@Marlins to go OVER the total (10*)

The Chicago White Sox broke out of an offensive slump in an 8-2 win against the Los Angeles Angels last night. The Seattle Mariners meanwhile lost the rubber-match of a three-game series against the Texas Rangers Wednesday. Both teams will start with their respective ace on the hill in this contest which should lead to a low-scoring contest. I think the books have set this line way too low though and I'm hammering the over.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The White Sox hand the ball to Chris Sale (11-7, 3.32 ERA) who tossed seven scoreless innings home at U.S. Cellular Field against the Cubs his last start. He was lit up for seven runs on 12 hits in five innings of an 8-2 loss at Fenway his last road start though and he has a 3.75 ERA in 11 road starts this year. The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez (14-7, 3.65 ERA) who hasn't looked much like an ace here in the second half of the season. He's posted a 6.31 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break and lasted only 2 1/3 innings of a 22-10 loss to the Red Sox his very start. He managed to give up 10 runs on 12 hits while serving up three homers over those rough frames.  

2. Situational - Eight of the White Sox's last 11 away from home have sailed over the total and the over is 4-1 in the Mariners last five home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. 

3. X-Factor -  Nelson Cruz is 6-for-13 with two homers in previous at bats versus Sale.   

Selection: This is a play on CHW@SEA to go over the total (10*)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central-lead, or at the very least defend the Wild Card spot they are currently owners of. They've won five of their last six games scoring eight runs or more three times in that span and are off a 9-8 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Another high-scoring tilt is in the cards Wednesday night when the two teams clash for the rubbermatch of this three-game series at PNC Park.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to J.A. Happ (4-7, 4.64 ERA) who's still looking for his first win with the Pirates since coming over from Seattle. He's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA over his last six starts overall and allowed four runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-0 loss in his lone home-start for the Pirates so far. The D'backs will counter with Robbie Ray (3-8, 3.29 ERA) who's off three consecutive losses surrendering a total of 10 runs on 18 hits and eight walks over 15 1/3 innings of work. This will be his first start against the Pirates this season but he was lit up for four runs in five innings here at PNC Park in his debut season last year.  

2. Situational - The over is 6-2-1 in the Pirates last nine games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 5-1 in their last six at home. 11 of the D'backs last 16 away from home have sailed over the total.  

3. X-Factor - The Pirates have reached the seats in 12 consecutive games, as streak likely to continue as Ray has served up four homers over his last four starts.  

Selection: This is a play on ARI@PIT to go over the total (10*)

The Washington Nationals are coming into this contest on the back of six consecutive losses, leaving the field scorless half of the times. A visit to Coors Field could be just what they need to get back on track offensively, and I expect a high-scoring contest in this series-opener against the Colorado Rockies.   

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (8-8, 3.34 ERA) who's overall numbers may look decent enough, but he's way better at home at Nationals Park than on the road where he has a 4.55 ERA in 11 starts on the year. He's a winless 0-3 with a 3.68 ERA overall since the All Star break. The Rockies will counter with David Hale (3-4, 5.69 ERA) who'll make his first start in over a month after spending some time on the disabled list due to a groin injury. He's allowed four runs or more in each of his last five starts, serving up on a homer per game on average in that span and a total of 10 in his last seven starts.

 2. Situational - Six of the Rockies last seven and all of Hale's last four home at Coors Field have gone over the total. The over is 8-2 in the Nats last 10 games following an off day. 

3. X-Factor - Colorado's relievers rank dead last in the major leagues this season with a 4.83 ERA.  

Selection: This is a play on WAS@COL to go over the total (10*)

The Minnesota Twins are coming off back to back wins over Cleveland, and they begin a new series in the Bronx on Monday night. The Yankees are clinging to a half game lead in the AL East after taking 2-of-3 in Toronto. The Bronx Bombers might need all the offense they can muster tonight with a struggling reliever making a spot start in Game 1 versus the Twins. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Yankees will send 24 year old Bryan Mitchell to the mound, replacing scheduled starter C.C. Sabathia. This will me the kid's second start of the year, and his first was no picnic, giving up four runs on seven hits over just four innings in an 8-2 loss to the White Sox. The Twins counter with Kyle Gibson, who is 0-3 with a 7.39 ERA since the All Star break. 

2. Trevor Plouffe - The Twins third baseman was 2-for-4 with a home run last night, and he's hitting .308 with a home run and a pair of RBI's in four games versus the Yankees this season. 

3. X-Factor - The bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees this season, but cracks have started to appear lately. Southpaw Andrew Miller has surrendered three runs on six hits in his last three appearances. 

Selection: This is a play on Twins@Yankees to go OVER the total (10*)

The Minnesota Twins are looking to make it to the post-season sitting just three games back of the Angels for the last Wild Card in the American League. They're desperate for a win after losing out 6-1 to division-rivals the Cleveland Indians in this series-opener last night. I expect both teams to score plenty of runs here as two rusty pitchers will take the mound.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Twins hand the ball to 24 year old rookie Tyler Duffey (0-1, 27.00 ERA) who'll make his second start in the big leagues. He conceded six runs on five hits with two homers in just two innings of a 9-7 loss to Toronto in his debut 10 days ago. The Indians will counter with Josh Tomlin who'll make his very first start of the season after recovering from a shoulder surgery. He posted a 4.76 ERA in 25 outings last season and he owns a 6.41 ERA in nine career games (six starts) against the Twins. 

2. Situational - Five of the Tribe's last seven games have gone over the total and the same is true for seven of the Twins last nine. Seven of the last eight meetings have gone over. 

3. X-Factor - Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter are a combined 10-for-24 in previous match-ups with Tomlin. 

Selection: This is a play on CLE@MIN to go over the total (10*)

The New York Yankees have been swinging extremely hot bats of late and defeated the Boston Red Sox 13-3 in last night's opener of a three-game set of this classic rivalry. Another high-scoring game is in the cards tonight when the two AL Est rivals will clash again. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Steven Wright (4-4, 4.53 ERA) who is off a decent outing when he conceded two runs on six hits in seven innings of an 8-2 home-win against the White Sox. He had surrendered 10 runs (eight earned) in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts prior though and has a 5.28 road-ERA for the year. The Yankees will counter with Luis Severino who will make his major-league debut. He's 7-0 with a 1.91 ERA in 11 starts with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but is likely to struggle here against the big boys and could certainly have asked for an easier opponent to make his debut against.  

2. Glowing Bats - The Yankees have scored a major leagues best 69 runs with a .323 batting average over the last seven days for an insane average of 11.5 runs scored per game. The Red Sox have averaged 6.33 runs per game over the same span while batting .284.  

3. X-Factor - Each of the last five meetings at Yankee Stadium have gone over the total.  

Selection: This is a play on BOS@NYY to go OVER the total (10*)

The major leagues-leading St. Louis Cardinals have found ways to win despite being rather unproductive at the plate but was on the losing side last night when the Cincinnati Reds shut them out in a 4-0 defeat. Another low-scoring contest is in the cards tonight when the teams will square off in the rubber-match of a three-game set at Busch Stadium.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Cardinals hand the ball to John Lackey (9-5, 2.88 ERA) who conceded four runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-4 loss against Cincinnati in his season-debut. He's been extremely efficient of late though after conceding a season-high 10 runs at Colorado on June 8 going 5-1 with a 1.75 ERA in eight starts since. The Reds will counter with Anthony DeSclafani (5-7, 3.98 ERA) who's struggled home in Cincinnati this season, but he's been reliable away from home posting a 2.67 ERA in 10 road-starts.  

2. Home Cookin' - Lackey has a 1.97 ERA in 11 home-starts for the year and the under is 35-14-2 in the Cardinals games at Busch Stadium this season.  

3. X-Factor - Each of the last four meetings at St. Louis have gone under the total.  

Selection: This is a play on CIN@STL to go under the total (10*)

Two teams that have been swinging hot bats in recent games will clash at Globe Life Park in Arlington Wednesday night. The Yankees annihilated the Rangers 21-5 last night, and although less runs are to be expected tonight I think the teams will score enough for the game to climb over the total.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Rangers hand the ball to Colby Lewis (10-4, 4.49 ERA) who's off a pair of road-wins yielding four runs over 15 innings of work. His most recent starts home at Texas has not been quite as successful with the veteran right-hander giving up a total of 13 runs on 17 hits in 11 frames. This will be his second start against the Yankees this season surrendering five runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 10-9 win back in May and he's 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA in six career starts against them. The Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka (7-3, 3.64 ERA) who's won three straight starts behind a 2.82 ERA. He's yielded five home-runs over the last two alone though and he's allowed 11 over his last six starts.  

2. Hot Bats - The Yankees have scored a major leagues-best 59 runs over seven games in the last seven days with the Rangers sitting fourth with 44 runs scored over the same span, but one less game played.   

3. X-Factor - The over is 8-2 in Lewis' last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. 

Selection: This is a play on NYY@TEX to go over the total (10*)

The Chicago White Sox bats have come alive during a five-game winning streak. They defeated the Boston Red Sox 10-8 in last night's opener of a four-game set at Fenway Park, and I believe we'll have another high-scoring contest on our hands tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The White Sox will hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (7-5, 3.91 ERA) who's off eight innings of one-run ball at Cleveland. He's otherwise been rather poor away from home this season with a 4.84 ERA in 11 outings away from home and he has an 8.53 ERA in two career games (one start) against Boston who will counter with Wade Miley (8-8, 4.33). Miley has conceded one run in 13 innings over his last two starts combined, but he was far from perfect giving seven free passes over those two games. He's surrendered nine runs on 14 hits in 12 innings in his last two starts home at Fenway where he has a 4.68 ERA for the year.  

2. Hot Bats - The White Sox have averaged 6.14 runs per game over their last seven while the Red Sox have averaged an even five over the same span.  

3. X-Factor - Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are a combined 11-for-26 in previous match-ups with Samardzija. 

Selection: This is a play on CHW@BOS to go over the total (10*)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost back to back games at Atlanta, and still they come into Game 3 as a heavy favorite. The Dodgers are well overrated on the road, as they are just 20-25 so far away from Chavez Ravine. I like the Braves as a home dog with their ace on the mound, but I think the better bet is on the total.

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Dodgers will send Mike Bolsinger to the mound, and he's been rather inconsistent this season. Bolsinger (4-3, 3.04 ERA) allowed one run on two hits over four innings, failing to earn a decision in a 5-3 defeat at Washington in his last outing. He's win-less in seven starts on the road this season. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran, who allowed a pair of runs on four hits over 4.2 innings in a 4-2 win over the Cubs on Friday. 

2. Home Cookin' - Teheran is 5-0 with a 2.18 ERA in nine starts at Turner Field this season, and the Braves have won 10 of their last 14 at home. This Dodgers team ranks dead last in the National League in runs scored in day games.

3. X-Factor - The Braves have seen the total trend at a rate of 20-7-2 in their last 29 overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Dodgers@Braves to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays lost by a score of 3-2 at home to the Rays yesterday, and I am expecting another low scoring game here this afternoon. Toronto leads the major league's in scoring, but the Rays might have their Kryptonite.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Chris Archer, who has absolutely owned Toronto throughout his career. Archer (9-6, 2.74 ERA) is actually coming off the worst start of his career, allowing nine runs on a dozen hits over six innings in a loss at Kansas City. He's faced Toronto three times this season, allowing just one run over 22 innings. As incredible as that sounds, he's 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts at Rogers Center since 2012.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Jose Bautista is 2-for-26 lifetime versus Archer, while Edwin Encarnacion is 4-for-28 with four strikeouts.

3. X-Factor - Five of the last six times these two teams have played in Toronto, the total has gone under.

Selection: This is a play on the Rays vs. Jays to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Phillies were hammered in a 14-2 loss at AT&T Park last night, and that was with their ace Cole Hamels on the mound. It's not going to get any easier tonight with a win-less rookie getting the start. On a positive note, they might have more success against veteran Ryan Vogelsong than they had against Madison Bumgarner last night. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - David Buchanan will be on the mound for Philly, still in search of his first win of 2015. Buchanan (0-5, 8.76 ERA) gave up seven runs on eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis in his last start. The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong, and the veteran gave up five runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings against Philly earlier this year. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Phillies have owned Vogelsong, hitting a combined .342 against the right-hander. Ryan Howard is 5-for-10 with three RBIs lifetime versus the veteran. 

3. X-Factor - The over is 15-5-1 in the Phillies last 21 overall, and 6-0-1 in their last seven versus San Francisco. 

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies@Giants to go OVER the total (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 last night, and I expect another low-scoring contest at Tropicana Field Saturday afternoon when the two teams will square off in the middle game of this three-game series.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Astros will hand the ball to their ace Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.14 ERA) who's been exceptional all season long. He has the lowest ERA in the American League and had tossed 19 shutout innings before giving up three runs in six innings his last start. The Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 2.47) who's had a great season as well. He will make his first start since June 5 due to an oblique injury, and what better place to make the comeback than at the Trop where he's compiled a 1.64 ERA over five starts this season.  

2. Houston's Bats - The Astros have scored only 17 runs over their last seven games with nine of them coming in a 9-4 win at Cleveland. They've scored four over their last four games.  

3. X-Factor - 10 of the last 11 meetings at the Trop have gone under the total.  

Selection: This is a play on HOU@TB to go UNDER the total (10*)

The San Francisco Giants have lost eight of their last nine overall, and they now sit in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Dodgers. The good news is that they host the Phillies for a three game series prior to the All Star Break, and I like the Giants to get back on track tonight in the series opener. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Cole Hamels will be on the mound for the Phillies, coming off another dominant outing. Unfortunately for Hamels though, he's still win-less in his last seven starts. He has a losing road record, going 3-4 with a 3.64 ERA outside of Philly, and he's been hit hard by the Giants in his career. San Francisco will counter with Madison Bumgarner, who was roughed up in Washington in his last start. Bumgarner is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA in nine starts at AT&T Park so far. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Buster Posey has missed the last few games to rest a sore hamstring, but he's likely to be back in the lineup tonight. Posey is 9-for-18 (.500) lifetime versus Hamels. 

3. X-Factor - The Phillies have seen the total go over at a rate of 14-5-1 in their last 20 overall.

Selection: This is a play on PHI@SF to go over the total (10*)

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-2 last night when the teams opened a four-game set at Safeco Field. The M's recorded a season-high 19 hits while the Halos had eight, but I expect both teams to struggle at the plate tonight in what should be a low-scoring contest.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Angels will hand the ball to Hector Santiago (5-4, 2.40 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts conceding just a total of two runs on eight hits and four walks over 20 innings of work, seven innings of one-run ball against the M's on June 28 included. The Mariners will counter with Mike Montgomery (4-2, 1.62 ERA) who's been terrific over his last three starts as well, conceding only one earned run over 23 2/3 frames. The 26 year old rookie will make his first career start against the Angels tonight, a situation usually favoring the pitcher.  

2. Situational - The under is 7-1 the in Angels last eight games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 8-1-1 in their last 10 on the road when facing a left-handed starter. None of Montgomery's last four starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 have gone over.  

3. X-Factor - Santiago has the current members of the Mariners limited to a .196 batting average.  

Selection: This is a play on LAA@SEA to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Dodgers have split the first two games of this home series against the Phillies, but they are a heavy favorite in tonight's Game 3 with their ace on the mound. We've seen plenty of runs scored in this series so far, but tonight's game looks like it could be a pitcher's duel. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Clayton Kershaw (5-6, 3.08 ERA) allowed just one run on five hits over seven innings in a 2-1 home loss to the Mets his last time out. While he has struggled for much of the season, his numbers at home remain impressive. He's 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA in eight starts at Chavez Ravine. The Phillies counter with rookie Adam Morgan, who has looked impressive in both his two big league starts. 

2. Previous History - Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts versus the Phillies, and only the Mets have scored fewer runs than Philly away from home. 

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers have really struggled against left-handers this season, ranking 25th in the majors in runs scored, batting just .243 against southpaws. 

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies@Dodgers to go UNDER the total (10*)

The AL West-leading Houston Astros will visit the AL East-worst Boston Red Sox for game 1 of a three-game set at Fenway Park Friday night. The Astros are riding a four-game winning streak and have averaged five runs per game over their last five while the Red Sox also have won four of their last five and trounced the Blue Jays 12-6 yesterday. I think we can expect to see plenty of action over the plate in Boston tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Red Sox will hand the ball to Justin Masterson (3-2, 5.58 ERA) who was sharp in his comeback from a five-week stint on the DL due to tendinitis in his right shoulder when he tossed five innings of one-run ball at Tampa Bay. He's been quite poor home at Fenway this season though conceding 14 runs in 20 innings of work for a 6.30 ERA. The Astros will counter with 26 year old right-hander Dan Straily who will make his season-debut tonight taking over the recently demoted left-hander Brett Oberholtzer's spot in the rotation. He's not been particularly impressive in the minors with Triple-A Fresno going 6-6 with a 4.06 ERA for the year and this is a bad time to face a surging Red Sox offense coming off a big Thursday.  

2. Jose Altuve - The Astros's second baseman is having another productive year batting .298 for the season and he's been very good of late batting .368 over a 10-game hitting streak. He's enjoyed recent visits to Fenway as well going 6-for-10 in his last two games there. 

3. X-Factor - Only one of the Red Sox's last six games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 has gone under.   

Selection: This is a play on HOU@BOS to go over the total (8*)

The Blue Jays bats came alive on Canada Day at Rogers Center, and the Jays defeated the Red Sox by a score of 11-2. They will look to salvage a split in the final game of this series tonight, and I think we could see another high scoring affair with a couple of below average pitchers starting in this one. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Wade Miley will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's improved since a rough start to the season. Miley (7-7, 4.38 ERA) gave up just a couple runs on five hits over 6.1 innings in a loss to Tampa in his latest start. He allowed four runs on eight hits in a 7-0 home loss to the Jays earlier this season. The Jays will counter with rookie southpaw Matt Boyd, who gave up three home runs in his debut. 

2. Toronto Bats - Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak all went deep yesterday, and the Jays still lead the majors in scoring with 435 runs (67 more than the Yankees). 

3. X-Factor - Jose Reyes is 6-for-13 (.462) in this series so far, and he's 4-for-8 lifetime versus Miley. 

Selection: This is a play on the BOS@TOR to go over the total (10*)

We've seen plenty of action over the plate in the first two games of this series as the Pittsburgh Pirates have defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-4 and 9-3. Runs should come fairly easy for both teams today as well considering the pitching match-up, and I think the value is on the over here.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Tigers will hand the ball to Kyle Ryan (1-1, 4.56 ERA) who missed his last start due to a rainout. He has struggled lately conceding a total of nine runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings in his last three outings and has only 11 strikeouts but eight walks over 23 2/3 innings this season. The Pirates will counter with Francisco Liriano (4-6, 3.21 ERA) who started the season excellent but has had a tough time of late. Liriano has conceded a total of seven runs on 13 hits in 12 2/3 innings over his last two starts and he has a 5.59 ERA against the Tigers lifetime. 

2. The Tigers Bats - The Tigers have a team batting average of .276 against left-handers for the season which is among the best marks in baseball, and they have a team batting average of .293 against Liriano. 

3. X-Factor - The Pirates Neil Walker is off a 4-for-6 performance with two homers last night and is 6-for-12 in the series so far. 

Selection: This is a play on PIT@DET to go over the total (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays bats have been very quiet so far in this series, but the Cleveland Indians have been all the hotter hammering in 21 runs over the first three games of the series. The number on the total looks way too low for me considering the potential in both teams line-up, and I think we should see this one fly over by quite some margin. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Matt Moore who will make his first start for almost 14 months. The 26 year old southpaw made just two starts in 2014 before suffering an elbow injury that forced him to have Tommy John surgery. He has not gone deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any of his rehab outings and has a 3.78 ERA in four career outings versus Cleveland who will counter with its struggling ace Corey Kluber (3-9, 3.66 ERA). Kluber is 0-4 with a 3.97 ERA in his last five starts while yielding 10 walks and three homers. He has a 3.66 ERA and has been nowhere near the form that saw him claim the AL Cy Young trophy last year.  

2. Cleveland's Bats - The Tribe have averaged 5.33 runs per game over their last six and have hit southpaws hard all season long scoring a major league best 119 for the year.  

3. X-Factor - David DeJusus and Evan Longoria are a combined 8-for-22 against Kluber in previous meetings.  

Selection: This is a play on CLE@TB to go over the total (10*)

The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park this afternoon, and both teams are coming off a loss. I'm expecting to see a pitcher's duel in the Motor City, with two capable starters on the hill today. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Alfredo Simon will get the nod for the Tigers, and he was not sharp in his latest start. Simon only lasted 2.2 innings, giving up seven runs on eight hits in a loss to the Yankees in New York. He has been far better in Detroit than he has been on the road, with a record of 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA at Comerica Park. The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts in the afternoon. 

2. Previous History - The under is 6-0-2 in White Sox last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter, and six of Detroit's last eight versus southpaws have gone under. 

3. X-Factor - Miguel Cabrera is hitting .226 in nine games against the White Sox this season. 

Selection: This is a play on Chicago@Detroti to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Detroit Tigers will head to Cincinnati for the second leg of this home and home series, and tonight's game will feature two of the best pitchers in the major leagues. Neither team has been great offensively, and it's likely that we see a low scoring pitcher's duel here in Cincinnati tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - David Price will get the nod for the visitors, and he's coming off back-to-back complete games. Price (6-2, 2.44 ERA) has given up just one run on 12 hits, striking out 19 in 18 innings in his last two starts. The Reds hand the ball to Johnny Cueto, who is 2-1 with a 1.25 ERA in five starts at home so far. He's 25-7 with a 2.13 ERA at Cincinnati since 2012. 

2. Batter vs Pitcher - The Reds lineup is hitting just .192 off Price in previous meetings, with more strikeouts (14) than hits (10). 

3. X-Factor - The Reds have a long history of playing low scoring games when Cueto pitches in Cincinnati, the under is 22-6-3 in Cueto's last 31 home starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Tigers/Reds to go UNDER the total (10*)

The San Diego Padres spent plenty of money this off-season in an attempt to bolster their offense, and so far it looks like money well spent. San Diego is third in the National League in scoring, thanks to the big bats of Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. They host the Oakland A's at PETCO today, and I think the total looks a little low considering both teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored, and each team turns to the back end of their rotation. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Padres will send Andrew Cashner to the mound, and he's really having a tough season. Cashner (2-8, 4.16 ERA) gave up four runs on seven hits in 6.2 frames in a no-decision at Atlanta in his last outing. His last home start was a disaster, allowing six runs on 11 hits over 4.2 innings. He's still in search of his first home victory. The A's counter with Scott Kazmir, who has not been sharp on the road. 

2. Kazmir On The Road - The Over is 6-1-2 in Kazmir's last 9 starts as a road favorite.

3. X-Factor - The Padres have seen the total go over at a rate of 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Athletics@Padres to go OVER the total (10*)

The San Diego Padres spent plenty of money this off-season in an attempt to bolster their offense, and so far it looks like money well spent. San Diego is third in the National League in scoring, thanks to the big bats of Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. They host the Oakland A's at PETCO tonight, and I think the total looks a little low considering both teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored, and each team turns to the back end of their rotation. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Padres will send Tyson Ross to the mound, and he's coming off yet another unimpressive outing. Ross (3-6, 3.81 ERA) gave up three runs on nine hits over six frames in a loss at Atlanta. He hasn't been any better at home, in fact his ERA is higher at PETCO than it is on the road. The A's counter with Jesse Hahn, who was chased from his last start early, not before giving up four runs on seven hits. 

2. Derek Norris - He arrived in San Diego via the trade that sent Hahn the other way, and he leads all National League catchers with 39 RBIs. 

3. X-Factor - The Padres have seen the total go over at a rate of 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Athletics@Padres to go OVER the total (10*)

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves for the opener of a three game set at Great American Ball Park Monday night. They split a four-game set in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago as the Braves won the opener of that series 5-1 with the same pitching match-up as tonight. I expect quite a few more runs to be scored in this game and I'm playing the over.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Braves will hand the ball to Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) who is coming off a complete game shut out against the Phillies on May 5. He was tagged for three runs on six hits over seven innings against the Reds in his last start prior though and he was 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati last year. The Reds will counter with Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) who is coming off back-to-back dominant performances after first hurling eight scoreless innings at Atlanta followed by another eight scoreless innings at Pittsburgh, surrendering just a combined total of eight hits. He is 4-2 in seven career starts against the Braves with a 2.03 ERA, but keep in mind that Atlanta has averaged 5.6 runs per game over its last five.. 

2. Bullpens - Neither pitcher can expect much back-up from the bullpen as Cincinnati's has compiled the worst ERA in the majors on the season (5.47 ERA) while Atlanta's has not done much better sitting fourth from the bottom with a 4.76 ERA.

3. X-Factor - Brandon Phillips is 6-for-17 with a homer against Miller over previous at bats.   

Selection: This is a play on ATL@CIN to go over the total (10*)

Last night's meeting between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins saw just one run scored as the White Sox prevailed in a 1-0 victory. The first game in this four game set saw a total of 14 runs though, and I expect to see plenty of action over the plate in Game 3 today as well. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (0-1, 18.00 ERA) who'll make his second start of the year today just coming off the disabled list with a right elbow inflammation following his season debut in a 11-0 loss at Detroit. He was charged with six runs on six hits over just three innings in that game and is likely to be in for more pain here as he's 0-2 with a 5.92 ERA in four starts against Chicago over his career and with the current White Sox roster batting a combined .324 over 142 at bats against the right-hander. The White Sox will counter with Hector Noesi (0-2, 5.23 ERA) who'll make his third start of the season after surrendering six runs on eight hits over a combined 10 1/3 innings in his first two outings. He faced the Twins over 4 2/3 innings in his season opener as he allowed two runs while walking six and he's posting a 4.32 ERA against Minnesota over his career. The current Twins roster is batting .290 over 131 at bats against Noesi.

2. Trends - 10 of the last 13 meetings have gone over the total and the over is a convincing 9-1-1 in the Twins last 11 games as a home favorite and 4-1 in the White Sox last five away from home. 

3. X-Factor - Minnesota's bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors on the season as its relievers has posted a combined 4.11 ERA over 70 innings so far.  

Selection: This is a play on CHW@MIN to go over the total (10*)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats of late, putting up a total of 21 runs over their last two games alone. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been rather effective as well coming off a three game set against the Giants where they scored a total of 16 runs and I expect another slug-fest at Dodger Stadium tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The D'Backs will hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa (2-1, 4.68 ERA) who has given up a fair amount of runs over two road starts on the year already. He was extremely poor away from home last season as well, going 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA over 10 starts. Carlos Frias will toe the slab for the Dodgers making his first start of the year after hurling 2 1/3 innings as a reliever. He finished last season with a 6.12 ERA over 15 outings, two starts, and I'm not convinced he will be up for the challenge here. 

2. Trends - The over is 5-1 over the last six meetings in L.A. and 23-8-1 in Dodgers last 32 home games overall.  

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers ranks near the top of the majors with 32 homers on the year, with 19 coming at home.  

Selection: This is a play on the ARI@LAD to go over the total (10*)

The Washington Nationals have scored 26 runs in consecutive wins at Atlanta, and they head to New York tonight to begin a new series with the Mets. With the Nats apparently heating up at the plate, I think we can expect another high scoring game against the Mets tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Stephen Strasburg will be on the mound for the Nationals, and he's off to a poor start this season. Strasburg (1-2, 4.88 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits over six innings in a loss to Miami in his latest outing. The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom, who was roughed up in his last start. He gave up six runs on eight hits over just five innings in a loss to the Yankees.

2. Dernard Span - The Nats leadoff man is 7-for-12 with a pair of home runs and four RBIs in the last two games, and he's now batting .317 for the season.

3. X-Factor - The Nats have seen the total go over in five straight road games, and five straight versus division rivals.

Selection: This is a play on the Nats@Mets to go OVER the total

 (8*)

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins are tied at 1-1 in this three game set at Marlins Park as they come into the rubber-match tonight. None of the previous games in the set have seen more than seven runs, and I doubt this contest will be any difference as I think we'll have an interesting duel on the mound. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Marlins will hand the ball to Mat Latos (0-3, 7.31 ERA) who was lit up against the Braves in his season opener but has improved significantly since. He's conceded just seven runs on 17 hits over 15 1/3 innings since with a 14-to-5 strikeout/walk ratio. He faced the Mets over six innings last year, yielding no earned runs as he surrendered only five hits while fanning five. The Mets will counter with seasoned veteran Bartolo Colon (4-0, 2.77 ERA) who's off to a great start his 18th season in the majors. Colon has conceded just eight runs on 22 hits over 26 innings of work, fanning 23 batters while surrendering just one walk. He's 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA in six starts against the Fish lifetime.
2. Lack Of Homers - Miami has mustered just 11 home-runs on the year for the second worst mark in the majors while the Mets have managed just 15. To put it in perspective, even combined the two teams have less home-runs than the league-leading Toronto and Houston who's sitting with 28 a piece. 
3. X-Factor - The Fish's Michael Morse is on a three game hitting streak but is just 2-for-11 against Colon over previous meetings.

Selection: This is a play on NYM@MIA to go under the total

 (10*)

The Braves will wrap up this three game series with the Mets on Thursday, looking to avoid a sweep with a win in the finale at Citi Field. We'll see a pair of quality pitchers face off in this pitcher friendly park, and the result should be another low scoring game.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Bartolo Colon will be on the mound for the Mets, and he's won all three of his previous starts. Colon (3-0, 2.25 ERA) allowed just a single run on six hits over seven innings in a win over Miami in his latest start. Colon beat the Braves in Atlanta prior to that, and he pitched well against Atlanta last season as well (2.45 ERA in three starts). The Braves hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts.

2. Injuries  - The Mets are still without a few keys players, most notably David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud.

3. X-Factor - The Nnder is 6-2 in Teheran's last 8 starts against the Mets.

Selection: This is a play on the Braves@Mets to go UNDER the total

(10*)

The Red Sox are sitting in the top spot in the AL East, with a record of 8-5. They play Game 1 of a three game series versus the Rays in Tampa tonight, and they'll be up against a red hot pitcher. Boston's bats are likely to be silenced tonight, and a play on the under looks good.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Chris Archer will be on the hill for the home team, coming off a pair of impressive starts. Archer (2-1, 1.37 ERA) has tosses 14 scoreless innings, giving up just three hits in wins over Toronto and Miami on the road. The Red Sox will counter with Wade Miley, who was roughed up by the Nationals in his last start.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Mike Napoli is 1-for-12 lifetime versus Archer, while Pablo Sandoval is 0-for-3 versus the right-hander.

3. X-Factor - These two teams have seen the total go under in five of the last six meetings in Tampa.

Selection: This is a play on BOS@TB to go UNDER the total(10*)

The Cleveland Indians are really struggling at the plate so far this season, and they wasted another solid start from Cy Young winner Corey Kluber last night in Minnesota. The Twins aren't exactly ripping the cover off the ball either, and I think we'll see another low scoring tilt in Minnesota on Saturday afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Phil Hughes will be on the mound for the Twins, and he's been a far better pitcher for Minnesota than he ever was for the Yankees. He's surrendered seven runs on 16 hits over 12 innings, losing his first two starts of the season. Both of those came on the road, and he will fancy his chances of turning in a better effort at home, where he was 7-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 17 starts last season. The Indians will counter with Danny Salazar, who will make his 2015 debut.

2. Hitting - The Indians have only managed to score 29 runs so far, only Houston and Chicago have fewer among American League teams. The Twins have scored just one more (30 total).

3. X-Factor - Hughes was always a better pitcher in day games than he was under the lights, and he was 11-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 16 starts in the afternoon last season.

Selection: This is a play on the Indians@Twins to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Detroit Tigers have certainly lived up to all expectations so far this season, but the same can not be said for the White Sox. These teams will play Game 1 of a three game set at Comerica Park on Friday afternoon. Both teams send their respective aces to the mound, in what might just be a pitcher's duel.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - David Price will be on the hill for the home team, looking to continue his perfect start to the season. Price (1-0, 0.00 ERA) was the victim of some poor defensive play in his last start, surrendering three runs (all unearned) over 5.2 innings in a 9-6 win at Cleveland. He was very sharp at home in Detroit on Opening Day, tossing 8.2 scoreless innings. The White Sox will counter with Jeff Sarmardzija, who signed a big contract with Chicago in the off-season.

2. Batter vs Pitcher - Jose Abreu, Tyler Flowers and Adam LaRoche are a combined 1-for-20 lifetime versus Price.

3. X-Factor - These two teams have failed to go over the total in four straight meetings in this series, and the total has gone under in each of David Price's last four home starts.

Selection: This is a play on Chicago@Detroit to go UNDER the total

.(10*)

The Toronto Blue Jays won in a slugfest at Rogers Center in Game 3 of this series versus Tampa last night. Toronto will try to salvage a split with a victory in Game 4 tonight. It's not going to be easy, as the Rays starting pitcher for tonight's game has been awful tough in previous visits to Toronto.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Chris Archer will be on the hill for the Rays, and he's coming off a stellar performance on the road in Miami. Archer tossed seven scoreless frames, allowing only one hit in a 2-0 win over the Marlins. To say he's had success against the Jays in the past would be understating it, he's 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts at Rogers Center since 2012. The Jays counter with Aaron Sanchez, who looks to improve on a shaky performance in his debut. The 22 year old looked great at the end of last season, posting an ERA of 1.09 in 33 innings out of the bullpen.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are a combined 6-for-42 with six strikeouts versus Archer lifetime.

3. X-Factor - The under is 11-3-1 in Archers last 15 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Rays@Jays to go UNDER the total (10*)

.(10*)

The Kansas City Royals will look to continue their hot start to the season in Minnesota on Wednesday, playing Game 2 of this three game series. The Royals won last night by a score of 12-3, remaining unbeaten with a 7-0 record. I think we'll the bats of both teams cool off tonight, with a pair of quality pitchers on the mound.

Here are keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Edinson Volquez will get the nod for the visitors, and he was dominant in his first outing of the season. The 31 year old surrendered just one run on four hits through eight innings in a 4-1 win over Chicago. He performed particularly well under the lights in 2014, going 10-3 with a 2.74 ERA in 21 starts for the Pirates. The Twins counter with Kyle Gibson, who owned Kansas City going 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA last season.

2. Batter vs Pitcher - Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez are a combined 1-for-16 lifetime versus Gibson.

3. X-Factor - The Royals own the best bullpen in the majors, and after seven games their relief pitchers have yet to surrender a run.

Selection: This is a play on the Kansas City Royals

.(10*)

The Milwaukee Brewers have won only one game on the season so far, but the way they've struggled at the plate it's not that big of a surprise. The team has mustered 16 runs over their first five games and will visit the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon, a team that has been involved in quite a few low-scoring contests so far and is sending its ace to the mound. I think this game has a lot factors pointing towards a low-scoring contest.    
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Cardinals will hand the ball to Adam Wainwright who's coming off a healthy seven days of rest since tossing six scoreless innings as he conceded only five hits with six strike-outs and no walks in his season-debut at Wrigley's. He's off a 2014 season where he posted a 2.38 ERA over 32 starts and posted a 2.97 ERA over 30 1/3 innings of work against the Brewers. Milwaukee will counter with Matt Garza who was torched for four runs on eight hits over five innings his first start of the season. He's better than that though, and even if he struggles initially we can rely on a solid Brewers bullpen that has compiled a 2.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and three walks in 21 1/3 innings so far on the season. 
2. Trends - None of the last four meetings in St. Louis have gone over the total and the under is 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 at home overall. Combine that with the under going 9-1 in Brewers last 10 road games and I think we're having a good case for this game going under the total as well. 
3. X-Factor - The Cardinals Matt Carpenter has been as productive as ever so far on the season going 6-for-20 over his first five games. He's only 1-for-11 against Garza over his career though and might struggle today as well. 

Selection: This is a play on MIL@STL to go under the total (10*)

The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks have both split their first four games of the season, and Arizona took the first game of this series last night by a score of 4-3. The visitors are a heavy favorite to even the series tonight, with their ace on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for the Dodgers, and he was not as sharp as usual on opening day. The southpaw was 11-1 with a 1.85 ERA on the road last year, and he won three of his four starts versus the D'Backs. Arizona will hand the ball to a rookie, and 22 year old Archie Bradley is said to have the potential to become the team's ace.

2. Previous History - The under is 9-4 in Kershaw's last 13 starts vs. Diamondbacks.

3. X-Factor - Ted Barrett will be calling balls and strikes today, and the under is 7-2-2 in Barrett's last 11 games behind home plate.

Selection: This is a play on the Dodgers@D'Backs to go UNDER the total .(10*)

The Kansas City Royals will be fighting for their lives tonight as another San Francisco Giants win would make them the 2014 World Series Champions. We have seen plenty of runs in this series, but the books are still keeping the lines low and I think we're getting a good price on the over in Game 6.

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to the Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) who will have a ton of pressure on his shoulders tonight. The inexperienced 23 year old is making his second start in the World Series, as he gave up two runs on eight hits with a homer over 5 1/3 innings in the 7-2 win in Game 2. Ventura is relying on his fastball, which indeed is pretty good, but the problem is those can easily turn into home runs and especially the way the Giants have been swinging their bats lately. The visitors will counter with Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA), and with 12 years in the major leagues and pitching in the last World Series as well he is certainly not lacking any experience. That being said, he did surrender four runs on six hits over five innings in the last match-up versus Ventura six days ago, and struggled on the road the whole regular season going 4-8 with a 4.60 ERA. 

2. The Giants offense - They have really been swinging hot bats recently, scoring 16 runs over their last two games. The Royals previously so hailed bullpen has started to show weakness,  with Herrera and Davis conceding three runs over the last two innings in Sunday's 5-0 loss.

3. X-factor - Billy Butler has owned Peavy in previous encounters, hitting an impressive .424 over 33 at bats with three homers and three walks. 

Selection: This is a play on the SF@KC to go over the total (10*)