Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-08-17 | Royals v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers beat the Royals 4-1 in Friday's opener of this three-game IL series and have won 24 of their last 28 games heading into Saturday’s contest (Dodgers are a MLB-best 37-11 at home). The Kansas City Royals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end on Friday’s series opener but they've won 22 of their last 33 games to get within two games of the first-place Indians in the AL Central. |
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07-07-17 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 105 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Almost all AL teams remain within shouting distance of the two wild card spots available, as the 2017 season gets set for its four-day All Star break come Monday. The 41-46 Mariners may be 17 1/2 games back of the Astros in the AL West and the 38-48 A's find themselves 20 games back but Seattle is much more modest 4 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot, while the A's are seven-back (granted, it's a VERY crowed field!). The teams opened a four-game series Thursday night with the A's winning 7-4, which drops Seattle to 0-4 on its current homestand, as well as making it eight straight home losses for the Mariners. No way Seattle has any chance at a wild card spot if it doesn't turn around its fortunes at home. As for the A's, they've been an awful road team all season, as Thursday's win leaves them just 13-27 away from home on the season. The pitching staff: Sean Manaea (7-4 & 3.75 ERA) gets the nod for Oakland and James Paxton (6-3 & 3.27 ERA) for Seattle. Manaea settled for a no-decision against Atlanta on Sunday but continued his good pitching, allowing just two runs on six hits in a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He is now 6-2 since coming off the DL in mid-May, a span of 10 starts (A's are 7-3). He's given up more than three runs only twice in those 10 outings, although his first start back from the DL came on May 15 against the Mariners, when he allowed four runs on two hits and five walks in five innings in a 6-5 loss. He's 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career starts (team is 3-2) against Seattle. Paxton halted a four-start win-less drought (he was 0-3 and the team 1-3) when he limited the Angels to one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings at Los Angeles in a 5-3 win. Paxton is 2-0 with a 4.13 ERA in four career starts against the Athletics (team is 3-1), including a no-decision at Oakland on April 20 in which he surrendered five runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 Innings. The pick: Last night's game finished with 11 runs and 21 hits. Seattle pitching has now allowed 24 runs in its last three games and note that Paxton struggled in his lone appearance against the A's this season. Yes, Manaea is in a nice groove but he's no Kershaw. Oakland is allowing 5.38 RPG on the road in 2017 and the Mariners, despite their struggles at home, are averaging 5.07 RPG at Safeco. With neither bullpen offering much relief (Seattle's bullpen ERA is 4.31 and Oakland's is 4.97), the Over is a 10* play. |
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07-07-17 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The 38-46 Detroit Tigers and the 45-39 Cleveland Indians open a three-game series at Progressive Field tonight, as MLB teams get ready for a four-day All Star break, beginning Monday. The Tigers capped a 5-4 homestand with a 6-2 win over the Giants on Thursday and enter this series seven games back of Cleveland. The Indians, the defending AL Champs, are clinging to first in the AL Central, leading the Royals by just one game and the Twins by 1 1/2. The team's home woes were not in evidence in Thursday's 11-2 rout of San Diego but that victory gives the Indians a poor 19-23 home mark. What a difference a year makes. The Indians went 53-28 at Progressive Field in 2016 (only the Cubs won more home games) and finished plus-$1230 against the moneyline. In stark contrast, the team's home moneyline mark in 2017 is minus-$22456, more than $1000 worse than MLB's second-worst home team's mark! The pitching matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (5-6 & 5.58 ERA) starts for Detroit and Carlos Carrasco (9-3 & 3.50 ERA) for Cleveland. Zimmermann allowed a four-run sixth against the Indians just this past Saturday, losing to Carrasco and the Indians 4-1. That makes him 0-2 in his last five outings (Tigers are 1-4). He has been plagued by the home run ball all season, surrendering four in his last three outings and 21 in 16 starts on the season. Zimmermann is 0-2 with a 10.67 ERA over three career starts against Cleveland (teams are 1-2). Carrasco allowed just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts on Saturday against the Tigers, improving to 4-0 in his last five starts overall (Indians are 5-0). He's 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three outings versus Detroit this season but just 7-7 with a 4.69 ERA against them in 17 career starts (teams are 9-8). The pick: In this quick pitching "re-hook" from Saturday, expect a similar effort from the starters. Zimmermann had thrown five scoreless inning until the sixth and as already noted, Carrasco yielded just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings. So what else is new? Carrasco has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts this season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-06-17 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland has endured slides of six, four and six contests since June 7, with a pair of four-game winning streaks in between, a model of inconsistency. The A's visit Seattle tonight to open a four-game series with the Mariners off back-to-back home wins over the White Sox, giving them a 38-45 record overall, leaving them in last-place in the AL West (21 games back of Houston). Seattle welcomes Oakland to town but the Mariners are on a seven-game home losing streak. Seattle allowed four runs in the first inning last night to Kansas City but was able to take a 6-4 lead, before losing 9-6 in 10 innings. Seattle sits just 41-45 on the season (17 1/2 games back of Houston) but can hold out a sliver of hope, as the Mariners are just four games out of the final wild card spot in the AL. However, to say the least, it's a crowded field. The pitching matchup: A pair of rookie hurlers take the mound tonight, Paul Blackburn (0-0 & 0.00 ERA) for Oakland and Sam Gaviglio (3-3 & 3.48 ERA) for Seattle. Blackburn was impressive in his major-league debut on Saturday, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over six innings of a no-decision against Atlanta (Braves won 4-3). Before getting called up, he posted a 5-6 record and 3.05 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) for Triple-A Nashville. Blackburn will be starting against his former organization, as he was acquired from Seattle in November for Danny Valencia. Gaviglio will be making his 10th start of 2017 in this one but comes in win-less in his last three, despite allowing three runs or fewer each time. He suffered a second straight loss Saturday, when he gave up three runs on five hits over a career-high 6 1/3 innings in a 4-0 road loss against the Los Angeles Angels. Gaviglio will be facing Oakland for the first time. The pick: Blackburn sure looked good in his debut and let's note that Gaviglio has worked at least five innings in each of his nine starts in his rookie season. Gaviglio should have little trouble with the A's, who are 13-27 on the road, averaging just 3.92 RPG. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks were hoping to close the gap on the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West with a three-game series that began July 4th at Dodger Stadium. Things didn't go as planned Tuesday night, as a 4-3 loss to the Dodgers dropped the D'backs 3 1/2 games back of LA. Catching LA will not be easy, as the 56-29 Dodgers have won 21 of their past 25 games and own a major-league-best 34-11 home record, including 13-1 in the past 14 games at Dodger Stadium. LA owns a plus-154 run differential, which would tie the 1976 Cincinnati Reds for second best among NL teams heading into the All-Star break. Getting back to Arizona, it's been a remarkable turn around from 2016, when the team finished 69-93, 18 games out of a wild card spot. Arizona comes into tonight's game 52-32 (No. 1 wild card spot), which gives them a 10 1/2-game cushion in the wild card chase! |
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07-05-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 108 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston rookie Andrew Benintendi knocked in the go-ahead runs in Monday's 7-5 Red Sox win in 11 innings, then went 5-for-5 with two HRs, six RBI and four runs scored in July 4th's 11-4 rout of the Rangers (Aaron Judge, who?). Boston has now won six straight (eight of nine) and will go for a three-game sweep of the Rangers in Texas on Wednesday night. The Rangers have now lost three straight and six of their last seven, with the team's pitching staff allowing at least five runs in each of those six setbacks. At 40-44, Texas now trails Houston by 17 games in the AL West. Meanwhile, after some early struggles, 49-35 Boston now leads the Yankees by four full games in the AL East |
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07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are beginning to show more of a consistent offense. The team's 7-5 win (11 innings) over Texas in Monday’s series opener gives Boston five consecutive victories in which the team has scored at least six runs games. While the Yankees have struggled since mid-June, Boston has surged in that same time frame and Monday's win keeps the first-place Red Sox three games clear of the rival New York Yankees in the AL East (Boston is 48-35 and New York 44-37). The Rangers are stuck in the AL West with the Astros (owners of MLB's best record at 56-27) and have lost five of their last six to fall three games under .500 (40-43) and 16 games back of Houston. The pitching matchup: David Price (3-2 & 4.61 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and Yu Darvish (6-6 & 3.11 ERA) for Texas. Price got a late start to the 2017 season due to injury and has also been sidetracked by getting into fights with local reporters and broadcasters. However, he is beginning to pitch well, entering this July 4 contest with a string of four straight starts of allowing three or fewer ERs. He matched season highs with seven strikeouts and seven innings pitched against Minnesota on Thursday and did not walk a batter in a 6-3 win. Price has had much success against Texas in his career though, going 3-9 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts (teams are better though with an 8-9 record, despite that high ERA). Darvish has pitched well lately, allowing a total of just two ERs over 13 innings in the last two starts. Darvish may be just 6-6 on the season but he has surrendered more than three runs just once in his last 13 outings and is holding opponents to a .205 batting average. Darvish hasn't faced Boston since 2014 and is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings over three starts against the Red Sox in his career (Texas is 2-1). The pick: Two All-Stars caliber pitchers take the mound in this one and both have pitched well as of late. With that in mind, the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-04-17 | Giants v. Tigers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants are suffering through a 'nightmare' season in 2017 (33-51, 22 games back in the NL West) but will take a season-high six wins in a row into this three-game IL series in Detroit against the Tigers. Like the Giants, the Tigers had Monday off and are also a last-place team at 36-48. Detroit has lost 11 of 15 to find itself saddled with its worst record at the 81-game mark since 2003 but the Tigers are a much more modest eight games out of first in the AL Central plus almost every AL team remains alive in the wild card chase at this stage of the season. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (3-7 & 5.46 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco and Michael Fulmer (7-6 & 3.19 ERA) for Detroit. Cain hasn't won since an 8-4 triumph over the Dodgers back on May 15 and saw his win-less stretch extend to eight starts last Tuesday (he's 0-6 and the Giants 2-6) after receiving a no-decision on the heels of allowing three runs on six hits in six innings versus Colorado (SF won 4-3). That game vs. the Rockies concluded a disastrous June in which Cain posted a 7.77 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. Fulmer snapped a three-start losing skid on Thursday in a 7-3 victory over Kansas City. The 2016 AL rookie of the year allowed just two earned runs and struck out seven and was one out shy of a complete game. The pick: The Tigers were 19-7 in Fulmer's starts last year and his moneyline mark of plus-$1292 ws 6th-best in all of MLB but Detroit is a more modest 8-7 in his 2017 starts. However, he happens to be the Tigers' lone All-Star representative. As noted, Cain's off an 'ugly' June but all of a sudden, the Giants are playing much better with the team's pitching staff leading the way by allowing just 17 runs in their six consecutive wins (2.83 per). Expect a decent effort out of Cain and Fulmer sure should be able to handle a San Francisco lineup which ranks 28th in runs scored (3.94 per) plus dead-last (30th) in OPS (.679) and HRs (70). Make the under an 8* play. |
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07-03-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with Friday night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. St. Louis ended June 13-16 and the 139 runs the Cards surrendered in June represented the team's highest one month total since May 2012. However, the Cards silenced the National League's most proficient offense on Friday and Saturday, beating the Nats 8-1 and 2-1. The Cardinals were after their fifth straight victory Sunday night on ESPN but the Nats scored seven runs on 10 hits and Scherzer struck out 12 St. Louis batters in seven scoreless innings as the Nats won 7-2. The Cards continue their 10-game homestand when the Marlins come to St. Louis for four games. Miami halted a four-game skid by posting a 10-3 victory at Milwaukee on Sunday. The Marlins are just 36-44 (11 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and finish their 10-game road trip this weekend in San Francisco. Miami is the site of this year's All Star game (Tuesday, July 11). The pitching matchup: Jeff Locke (0-4 & 5.52 ERA) will start for Miami and Adam Wainwright (8-5 & 5.17 ERA) for St. Louis. Locke has made six starts in 2017 and has yet to find the win column (Marlins are also 0-6). Locke has made 11 career appearances (10 starts / teams are 5-5) against St. Louis, going 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA. Wainwright has had a roller-coaster season but comes in having allowed just two runs in each of his last two starts. Wainwright is 5-2 with two shutouts and a 2.37 ERA in 11 career games (nine starts / team is 7-2) against the Marlins, including a no-decision at Miami on May 9 in which he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings. The pick: Wainwright has been just awful in eight road starts this season, posting an 8.36 ERA. However, he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight home outings in 2017! Yes, Locke is win-less in six starts this season but he's pitched better than his record, as he's allowed three ERs or less in five of his six outings. Make the Under a 10* play |
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07-03-17 | Orioles v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The 40-41 Orioles begin a four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Brewers, having won five of their past eight. Baltimore beat the Tampa Bay Rays 7-1 on Sunday to salvage the finale of a three-game series. Once upon a time, Baltimore was 22-10 and leading the AL East but prior to winning five of its last eight, Baltimore had lost 28 of its previous 41 games. Currently, the Orioles are 6 1/2 games back of the first-place Red Sox. The 44-40 Brewers remain in first place in the NL Central but their lead was cut to two games over the Cubs after Sunday's 10-3 loss to the Marlins. |
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07-02-17 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with Friday night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. St. Louis ended June 13-16 and the 139 runs they Cardfs have surrendered represented the team's highest one month total since May 2012. However, all the Cards have done so far this weekend is silence the National League's most proficient offense. The Washington Nationals average 5.53 RPG, although following Friday's 8-1 loss, the Nats were again silenced on Saturday by the Cards' Michael Wacha who had a season-high nine strikeouts over six innings of a 2-1 St. Louis win. The Cardinals now seek their fifth straight victory and a three-game sweep of the NL's best road team Sunday night on ESPN . The Nats are 25-17 away from home and despite scoring just two runs in the first two contests of this series, are averaging 5.45 RPG on the road. |
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07-01-17 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with last night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. Yes, St. Louis ended June 13-16 but three of the team's five victories have come over 50-31 Arizona and 47-33 Washington. A big reason for the team's recent surge is a pitching staff which has allowed four or fewer runs in each of the wins and allowed just one run on six hits Friday to the Nationals, who lead the NL in runs scored (3.39 per). The Nats have injury issues at the top of its lineup with Trea Turner (fractured wrist) Aand dam Eaton (knee) on the disabled list. However, the Nats still own an 8 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (7-2 & 2.87 ERA) takes the mound for the Nats and Michael Wacha (4-3 & 4.50 ERA) for the Cards. Gonzalez is having a very solid season, as he has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts, including each of the last seven. Gonzalez faced St. Louis back on April 11 and allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits without walking a batter in seven innings to earn an 8-3 win. Wacha has not had much consistency in 2017 but bounced back from two sub-par outings with an 8-2 win over Cincinnati on Monday, scattering one run on five hits over six innings. However, he did not record an out in the fifth inning in either of his two previous starts, surrendering a total of nine runs (six earned) on 16 hits in eight innings (6.75 ERA). That said, Wacha is 2-2 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts against Washington Gonzalez owns a splendid 2.87 ERA but yet, Washington is only 9-7 in his 16 starts this season. In keeping with that, although he owns a 2.86 career ERA against the Cards, his teams are just 5-4 in nine starts. Throw in Wacha's 1.57 ERA in four starts against the Nats and it's a 10* on the Under. |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: There can be no doubt that Boston misses David Ortiz but after a less-than-impressive start to the 2017 season (Red Sox were just 21-21 through May 20), Boston has gone 24-14 and caught the slumping Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox aren't hitting at the same rate they were with David Ortiz in the middle of the lineup last season but they are developing new strengths. Boston's bullpen ERA of 2.88 is the second-best in all of MLB and that unit gave them five scoreless innings to close out Friday's series opener with Toronto, 7-4 in 11 innings. Closer Craig Kimbrel pitched a perfect 11th inning on Friday to increase his AL-leading save total to 23. Toronto, a team which has played in the last two ALCS matchups, struggled out of the gate by going 7-18 in April but got things turned around although it has never been able to reach .500. The Blue Jays have gotten to within one game of that mark often but keep falling back. Recently, the team has lost six of eight to fall five games under .500 (37-42) and into the AL East basement, 7 1/2 games back of Boston. |
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06-30-17 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-30-17 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: I guess one could call the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies NL East rivals, as the two teams get set to square off in the opener of a three-game series at Citi Field Friday night. However, the Mets are going nowhere at 36-42 (10 1/2 games back of the first-place Nats) and the Phillies check in with MLB's worst record, at 26-51. The Mets are back home after a 10-game road trip. New York appeared headed for disaster when the Mets opened the trip by getting outscored 36-11 in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers but they won five of the last six games, sweeping the San Francisco Giants and taking two of three in Miami from the Marlins.The Phillies were off Thursday, a day after they completed a two-game sweep of the Mariners in Seattle with a come-from-behind 5-4 victory. Even with those back-to-back wins, the Phillies still own MLB's worst road record at 12-31. A win Friday would give the Phillies only their third winning streak of longer than two games this season. |
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06-29-17 | Dodgers v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers and Angels conclude their home-and-home four-game IL series Thursday night in Anaheim. The Angels won last 3-2, after the two LA teams split a pair of 4-0 finals at Dodger Stadium Monday and Tuesday. The Dodgers own the NL's best record at 52-28, while the Angels are stuck in the AL West and at 42-40, have little chance of catching the Astros, who own MLB's best record at 53-26. The Angels trail the Astros by 12 1/2 games but almost every AL team is alive in the wild card chase and the Angels are among a group of seven teams all within four games of each other, vying for two spots. |
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06-29-17 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 10 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 102 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards won 4-3 on Wednesday, after losing 6-5 in Arizona on Tuesday. It's the rubber match of the three-game series this afternoon, as the Diamondbacks seek to bounce back from a loss, just their fourth in the last 20 games! Arizona remained 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, as the Angels edged the Dodgers 3-2 last night in Anaheim. The Cards check in at only 36-41 but with no team playing all that well in the NL Central, sit a modest 3 1/2 games out of first place. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (5-5 & 3.86 ERA) starts for St. Louis and Patrick Corbin (6-7 & 4.89 ERA) for Arizona. Lynn's 2017 season had been solid until his last two starts, in which he's lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, giving up seven runs in each contest. It sure hasn't helped that he's allowed six HRs in the two games. Lynn is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts / team is 5-2) against the Diamondbacks in his career. Corbin lost to Philadelphia in his last outing, despite giving up one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings. Like his team, Corbin has fared well at home, going 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA (he's 1-5 with a 7.84 ERA in six road starts). Corbin is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in three career starts against the Cardinals (teams are 1-2). The pick: Lynn had allowed two or fewer ERs in 10 of his first 13 starts before his recent troubles (see above) but I'm not ready to buy that those troubles are behind him just yet. Wednesday's loss was just Arizona's third in its last 18 home games and in going 30-11 at home in 2017, the D'backs are averaging 6.20 RPG at Chase Field. Corbin has been solid at home (especially compared to his awful road record) but he's hardly a "shut down" starter. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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06-29-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians have won two of the first three in this four-game home series with the Rangers, after Wednesday's 5-2 victory. After getting swept in a three-game series by the Twins last weekend, the Indians now wrap up a seven-game homestand with a chance to finish 3-4. The Rangers were 32-32 back on June 13 and with last night's loss, find themselves 7-7 over their last 14 and at 39-39 on the season, a whopping 13 1/2 games out of first in the AL West. Meanwhile, the 41-36 Indians are back on top of the AL Central at 41-36, by a half-game over the Twins. The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (3-6 & 3.50 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Corey Kluber (6-2 & 3.24 ERA) for Cleveland. Cashner will be activated off the disabled list to make the start on Thursday. He has been on the DL since June 15 with a left oblique strain. In his last three starts prior to going on the DL, Cashner was 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and going back further, was 3-3 with 4.50 ERA in his previous six. Cashner's made just one career start against the Indians and it didn't go well, allowing six runs on six hits along with six walks in a 6-2 loss while pitching for Miami last season. Corey Kluber is unbeaten in five starts (he's 3-0 but the team just 3-2) since spending nearly a month on the disabled list. He was overpowering in his last start against Minnesota, registering a season-high 13 strikeouts while permitting two unearned runs and three hits over seven innings. It was the third consecutive start with a double-digit strikeout total. Kuber is 2-1 with a 4.36 ERA in five career starts vs. Texas (teams are 4-1). The pick: We can't be sure about Cashner in his first start since June 14 but he does own a respectable 3.79 ERA in seven road starts this season. As for Kluber, he's in excellent form (1.29 ERA over his last five starts), so the Under is a 10* play. |
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06-28-17 | A's v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros may own MLB's best overall record (52-26) but their play at home in Minute Maid Park has been sub-par. Tuesday night was another example as Houston fell 6-4 to the Oakland A's, who even with the win own just a 13-25 road record. The Astros' three-run, ninth-inning rally fell short last night and Houston is now a modest 23-17 at home, compared to a MLB-best 29-9 on the road! Houston has five more games at Minute Maid in this homestand, two with the A's and then three with the Yankees. After going 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position while stranding 10, Houston must do better. One would think, the struggling A's give them an opportunity to get better.. |
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06-27-17 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels Dodgers opened their home-and-home four game IL series with the LA Angels Monday night at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers came in on a 10-game winning streak, as well as an 11-game winning streak at Dodger Stadium, where they were a major league-best 32-10. They also entered Monday's contest having homered in 17 straight games to match the Los Angeles club record set back in 1960. However, all streaks were ended last night as the Angels came away with a 4-0 victory. It's highly unlikely that the Angels will catch the 52-25 Houston Astros in the AL West (currently trail by 12 1/2 games!) but they are starting to resemble a legitimate wild-card contender. The Angels extended their winning streak to three games on Monday and at 41-39, have moved within one game of Minnesota for the second wild card spot. Getting back to the Dodgers, they still own the best record in the National League (51-27) and lead the West by one game over Arizona. The pitching matchup: Jesse Chavez (5-7 & 5.15 ERA) takes the mound for the Angels and Kenta Maeda (5-3 & 4.62 ERA) for the Dodgers. Chavez escaped with a no-decision after allowing five runs on seven hits in four innings of the Angels' 10-5 victory at Yankee Stadium on Thursday and that leaves him 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his last six starts, allowing 40 hits over 31 innings. Surprisingly, the Angels are 4-2 in that span. Chavez posted a 4.21 ERA in 23 relief appearances with the Dodgers last season after being acquired at the trade deadline from Toronto and is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 11 games (two starts / teams are 1-1) against them. Maeda last started a game at Cincinnati on June 18, when he allowed one run, three hits and one walk while striking out five in five innings of an 8-7 victory. His only appearance since that start was when he pitched a scoreless seventh inning in the Dodgers' 6-1 win against Colorado on Friday. Maeda allowed four runs on five hits in four innings of a 7-6 loss to the Angels back on May 16, 2016 (0-1 & 9.00 ERA) in his only appearance against them. The pick: Don't expect the Dodgers to be shut out again by the Angels but do expect another low-scoring contest. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-26-17 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies took the opener of this four-game series in Arizona but the D'backs won on both Saturday and Sunday, with yesterday's win taking 11 innings. Arizona's 2-1 victory gives the D'backs a 28-10 record at home (only the Dodgers own a better home-field mark) and 11 wins in their last 13 games, overall. The D'backs trail the Dodgers by 2 1/2 games in the NL West but do own MLB's top moneyline mark (plus-$1964). First baseman Paul Goldschmidt had two hits and a RBI on Sunday and is hitting .423 with five HRs and 18 RBI over his last 12 games. He leads the team with a .332 BA and leads all of MLB with 65 RBI. As for the Phillies, they head into Monday's series finale with MLB's worst overall record (24-50), its worst road record (10-30) and its second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2123). |
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06-25-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals went 12-12 in April and followed that up by going 13-13 in May. That's consistent but not exactly what one expects from a franchise which has made the playoffs in 12 of the previous 17 seasons. Then again, the Cards' April and May records look pretty good these days, as after dropping the first two of this three-game home series with the Pirates, St. Louis gets set to host Pittsburgh Sunday night on ESPN having gone only 8-15 in June. The Cards lost 7-3 last night, the 10th time this month they have surrendered at least six runs. The Cardinals are 3-8 their last 11, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June 2016! Meanwhile, the Pirates have won nine of 14 and guaranteed themselves a series win at a venue where they had dropped seven straight prior to Friday's triumph. Pittsburgh is now 35-40, one game better than the 33-40 Cards and only four games back of the NL Central-leading Brewers.The pitching matchup: Chad Kuhl (2-6 & 5.46 ERA) gets the nod for Pittsburgh and Mike Leake (5-6 & 3.03 ERA) gets the call for St. Louis. Kuhl ended a 12-start win-less streak this past Tuesday at Milwaukee, as he allowed just two runs on seven hits while striking out six in Pittsburgh's 7-3 win. Kuhl pitched just five inning sin the win (he was 0-6 and the Pirates 2-10 in his previous 12 starts) and hasn't worked past the fifth inning in any of his last 11 outings. Kuhl is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in three career starts against the Cards (team is 0-3). Leake is off a solid outing last Tuesday, allowing just one run on three hits over six innings of an 8-1 victory. He did not figure in Tuesday's decision but the outing did halt a four-start losing streak in which he owned a 6.20 ERA. Leake has seen the Pirates quite a bit in his career (29 starts), going 10-5 with a 3.29 ERA, although his teams are just 13-16.
The pick: Kuhl has not pitched well in 2017 but did have one of his best starts of the season on April 18 at St. Louis, giving up two runs on three hits over six innings. As for Leake, he's looked good in his last outing, after that awful four-game losing stretch. However, prior to that mini-slump, Leake owned a 1.91 ERA over his first nine starts of 2017. Pittsburgh/St. Louis games have been tight in 2017, as Saturday's 7-3 Pittsburgh win marked the first time in five meetings this season the outcome was decided by more than one run. Expect another close and low-scoring one tonight, making the Under a 10* play. |
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06-24-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 115 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers opened their three-game series with the Rockies last night, winning 6-1. The victory gives LA eight wins in a row, as well as 14 in the team's last 15 games. The Dodgers have surged to the top of the NL West at 49-25 (the team's 30-10 home record is a MLB-best) and LA's run differential of plus-128 is 18 runs better than that of Houston, which owns MLB's best record (50-25). The Rockies have now lost three straight and are 47-29, leaving them in a virtual tie with the D'backs, 2 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Tyler Chatwood (6-7 & 4.08 ERA) will get the call for Colorado and he draws LA's Clayton Kershaw (10-2 & 2.61 ERA). Chatwood has had his troubles at home in 2017 (6.39 ERA in seven starts) but he has been decidedly better away from Coors Field this season, going 4-3 with a 2.41 ERA in eight road starts. Chatwood is 4-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 12 career starts versus the Dodgers (teams are 4-8). Kershaw was able to get a win this past Monday at home against the New York Mets, despite surrendering six runs and a career-high four HRs over 6 1/3 innings. The three-time Cy Young Award winner has allowed a career-high 17 HRs but he alos owns a 115-17 KW ratio over 103 1/3 frames. Kershaw has gone 20-6 with a 3.13 ERA in 35 career starts against Colorado (Dodgers are 26-9). The pick: In Kershaw's 35 career starts against the Rockies, he's held them to a 222 opponents BA. He faces a Colorado lineup which was outscored 26-8 in back-to-back losses to Arizona before opening its nine-game road trip with a thud on Friday, scoring a single run on three hits. Throw in Chatwood's 2.41 ERA in eight road starts in 2017 and we have a 10* play on the under. |
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06-24-17 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals won the first of this three-game series 5-4 over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. It was a dramatic win, as Whit Merrifield delivered a walk-off, two-run double to cap a four-run ninth inning. The victory gives Kansas City 10 wins in its last 12 and the Royals are now at .500 (36-35) for the first time since they were 7-7 back on April 19. The Blue Jays opened the season 2-9 and have not been able to reach that .500 plateau and last night's crushing loss drops them another game further away from the break-even mark at 35-38. The Blue Jays began their seven-game road trip with wins in two of the first three at Texas but dropped an 11-4 decision on Thursday, failing in yet another opportunity to move to .500 (team is 0-9 in nine such tries in 2017, getting outscored 73-24!). The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (4-5 & 4.98 ERA) gets the start for Toronto and will be opposed by KC's best pitcher here in 2017, Jason Vargas (10-3 & 2.27 ERA). The pick: Vargas is pitching great but there should be some concern regarding his poor career numbers vs. Toronto. As for Estrada, he's clearly "off his game" and with a career ERA of 6.13 in June, the Over is a 10* play. |
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06-23-17 | Rangers v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees have had a rough 10 days, losing seven in a row from June 13-20 and then after an 8-4 Wednesday win snapped the team's slid, New York was unable to protect a four-run lead in a 10-5 loss to the Angels on Thursday. The Yanks open a three-game home series Friday against the Texas Rangers, having lost eight of nine to fall into virtual tie with the 40-32 Red Sox at 39-31 on the season. Meanwhile, Texas (36-36) has won nine of 13 and while the Rangers remain 13 games back of Houston in the AL West, the team's current streak has them within 1 1/2 games of the second AL wild card spot. |
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06-22-17 | Cubs v. Marlins UNDER 9 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 3-2 home loss to San Diego on Wednesday in which they tied a season-low with only two hits. Chicago begins an 11-game trip with four against the Marlins in Miami on Thursday. The Cubs did win their last road series (took two of three at Pittsburgh June 16-18) but prior to that, had gone 4-14 their previous 18 on the road. Miami was being no-hit by Washington’s Max Scherzer entering the eighth inning Wednesday but rallied for a 2-1 win, giving the Marlins their fifth straight series victory at home (Marlins are 12-3 in that span) as they prepare to host the Cubs on Thursday. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (6-5 & 4.64 ERA) will start for Chicago and Jeff Locke (0-2 & 4.58 ERA) for Miami. Arrieta continues to struggle in 2017, after going a combined 40-14 the previous two years. He takes the mound tonight having failed to get out of the fifth inning in his last two starts, lasting a total of just nine innings. Like his team, he's struggled big time on the road, with a 5.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in nine away starts. Miami's Locke is win-less in four starts since coming off the disabled list June 1 but he's pitched reasonably well, allowing three ERs or less in all four outings. Locke lost to Arrieta and the Cubs on June 6, when he allowed four runs (three earned) in 4 2/3 innings and that's not exactly new. Locke is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cubs (teams are 3-8). The pick: Locke hasn’t beaten the Cubs since 2013 but as noted above, he has not allowed more than three ERs in any of his four starts in 2017 since getting off the DL. Locke faces a Chicago team which is just 6-15 over its last 21 road contests, averaging only 3.71 RPG. Sure, Arrieta has struggled in 2017 but he limited the Marlins to two runs on just two hits over six innings in a 10-2 win June 6 in Chicago, improving to 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three meetings with Miami. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-21-17 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins lost their lead in the AL Central when they dropped four straight over the weekend to the Cleveland Indians. The Twins will get another shot at the Indians next weekend (three-game series in Cleveland) but first they host the Chicago White Sox for three games, a series which began last night. The White Sox had won of five of their last seven games heading into the series but were still mired in last place in the AL Central division at 31-37. The Twins came away with a 9-7 win, despite Santana allowing six runs on 10 hits (including two HRs) in just five innings. Minnesota still owns the worst home record in the majors (15-24) but it was huge to its their skid on a night when the team's ace pitcher labored. Chicago's loss dropped them to 16-26 on the road in 2017. The pitching matchup: Lefty David Holmberg (1-0 & 2.63 ERA) gets the start for Chicago and will be opposed by José Berríos (6-1 & 2.74 ERA), who has been a nice surprise for the Twins. Holmberg is in his first season with Chicago, after making 14 appearances (12 starts) the last three seasons. He will be making his fifth start since being shifted from the bullpen to the rotation but has made it through five innings only once. However, he's surely shown great improvement this season, overall. He came into 2017 with a 6.45 career ERA but his ERA is just 2.63 this season plus he owns an 0.88 WHIP with opponents batting only .160 against him. He may be just 1-0 in his previous four starts but Chicago has won three times. Berrios pitched a season-high eight innings in a 6-2 win over Seattle last Thursday. He allowed two runs on five hits to win his third start in a row. He has yet to yield more than six hits in any of his seven starts this season (owns a decision in each one). While the Twins have struggled at home, Berrios has been an exception, going is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP at Target Field. The pick: Holmberg has shown excellent improvement in 2017 but the turnaround by Berrios is "off the charts." He was 3-7 in 14 starts last year for Minnesota (team was 3-11), posting an 8.02 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and opponents batted .310 against him. Here in 2017 after seven starts, his ERA is 2.74, his WHIP is 0.96 and hitters are batting only .186 against him. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-19-17 | Red Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Hector Velazquez (1-1 & 6.48 ERA) gets the nod for Boston and Jason Hammel (3-6 & 5.05 ERA) for Kansas City. Velazquez will make just his second major-league start after holding Philadelphia scoreless on one hit and one walk over 3 1/3 innings on Wednesday to record the victory in relief. His first career start didn't go well, as he gave up six runs on nine hits (including three HRs) over five innings against Oakland back on May 18. Jason Hammel signed with KC as a free agent in the off season and a quick look at his record tells a sad story. The Royals have lost 10 of his 13 starts and his moneyline mark of minus-$584 ranks 240th of 249 starters in 2017. Hammel is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA in 13 career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4) versus the Red Sox. The pick: However, looking a little closer at Hammel gives one a slightly different perspective. After a dreadful two months, he's opened June with three consecutive quality starts. which includes a pair of wins and a 2.21 ERA in that stretch. He has a 15-1 KW ratio in 20 1/3 innings during June. As for Velazquez, one has to look past his only previous big league start (a May 18 disaster) and note that he's off a 3 1/3-inning scoreless relief effort in his last outing plus owned a 1.29 ERA in nine outings in Triple-A Pawtucket this season before being called up. I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-17-17 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up; This three-game IL series continues Saturday night in Houston, with the Astros hosting the Red Sox. Boston won 2-1 last night and has now won six of its last eight to reach 38-29 on the season, just one game back of the Yankees in the AL East. Houston's 45-23 record remains MLB's best and while the Astros still own a commanding 11-game lead in the AL West, the team has now dropped seven of 10 since its 11-game winning streak The pitching matchup: Rick Porcello (3-8 & 4.67 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and David Paulino (0-0 & 6.59 ERA) for Houston. The reigning Cy Young Award winner has lost three straight decisions and looks like a mess. Porcello has surrendered 66 hits in 43 1/3 innings over his last seven starts and opponents are hitting .310 against him, 80 points higher than during his 2016 season. He's only faced Houston twice in his career, going 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA (teams are 2-0). Paulino has recently een brecalled from Triple-A (May 31) and will make his fourth start of 2017. He has failed to get beyond four innings in two of his three major-league starts in 2017, including giving up five runs in four innings of a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels this past Sunday. Opponents have 19 hits - including six doubles and three HRs - in just 13 2/3 innings against Paulino since he was recalled last month. He has never faced Boston. The pick: While Porcello has had his struggles in 2017, it should also be pointed out that he has worked at least six innings in each of his last 19 road starts, the longest active streak in the majors, with a 3.30 ERA during that stretch. The Astros won't expect much (or too many innings) from Paulino and while I don't expect another 2-1 game, I don't expect a slug-fest, either. Adding fuel to my pick on the under is the fact that Boston's bullpen has not allowed a run in 24 innings, the team's longest such run since 2009 (25 1/3). Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-17-17 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas has been an inconsistent team in 2017. The Rangers posted a 10-game winning streak (May 9-19) but followed it with a 4-12 stretch before they went 5-1 during a six-game road trip against division leaders Washington and Houston leading into this series. Texas (now 33-33) made it six wins in its last seven games with Friday's 10-4 series-opening rout. As for Seattle, the Mariners won nine of 10 to get back to the break-even mark on June 7 after falling a season-low eight games under .500, but they are only 3-6 since, checking in at 33-36. The pitching matchup: Yovani Gallardo (3-6 & 6.11 ERA) starts for Seattle and Martin Perez (2-6 & 4.56 ERA) for Texas. Gallardo pitched well this past Monday in Minnesota, earning his first win in nearly a month after yielding three runs over six innings in a 14-3 win. That effort ended a two-start stretch in which he had surrendered 10 runs, 12 hits (including three HRs) and five walks over 10 innings. The vet has only four quality starts in 13 outings in 2017, with Seattle going 5-8. Gallardo allowed just one run on four hits in six innings but settled for a no-decision versus the Rangers on May 5 (Texas won 3-1) He's now 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Texas (teams are 0-3). Perez allowed only two runs on seven hits over five innings last Saturday's in Washington but settled for a no-decision (Rangers won 6-3), as his win-less streak extended to four outings. Perez is 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA over 12 career starts against Seattle (Rangers are 7-5). The pick: Seattle's a poor road team (just 13-23 in 2017) and Perez 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in six starts against Seattle since the beginning of last year. Also, he's 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his five career home starts against Seattle. The trouble with taking Texas here is that the team's bats have been quiet, scoring only 10 runs over the last three games. Make the Under. |
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06-16-17 | Yankees v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The 38-26 New York Yankees lead the AL East by two games over Boston, while the Oakland A's have sole possession of last place in the AL West at 28-38. However, in the first of this four-game series between the two teams, Khris Davis' two-run, walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th inning gave Oakland an 8-7 victory. All of a sudden, the Yankees have lost three straight and could be without catcher Gary Sanchez (he left the game Thursday night in the top of the ninth inning after stealing a base and hurting his groin) and CF Aaron Hicks, who left in the bottom of the ninth with tightness in his Achilles tendon. Manager Joe Girardi doesn't expect Sanchez or Hicks to miss more than a game or two but New York would sure like "all hands on deck" in trying to stop the team's current "mini-slide." Oakland's Davis leads the A's with 17 HRs and said he hopes momentum from the walk-off win carries over to the second game Friday night. "Just a win like that gives us some momentum for tomorrow and maybe for the whole series," Davis said. The pitching matchup: Luis Severino (5-2 & 2.75 ERA) will get the ball for New York and Sean Manaea (6-3 & 3.67 ERA) for Oakland. Severino hasn't lost any of his last seven outings after he beat Baltimore 16-3 last Saturday, allowing just one run on two hits in seven innings. He has given up more than two runs only once during his unbeaten streak and fewer than two on five occasions. Severino is 3-0 during his last seven starts (Yanks are 5-2). In his lone career start vs. Oakland, he gave up two runs over six innings of a no-decision back on April 21, 2016 (NYY lost / 3.00 ERA). Like Severino, Manaea is riding a winning streak as well. The lefty enters on a five-start winning streak during which he has allowed two ERs or fewer in each outing while registering 32 strikeouts and seven walks over 32 innings (1.97 ERA and .193 opponent batting average). His latest win came on Saturday when he gave up two runs over seven innings at Tampa Bay. He's made two career starts vs. the Yankees, going 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA. The pick: These two starters give us a very low total here and note that the Yankees average more runs than any team in MLB (5.81 per), with MLB's 2nd-best team BA (.277) and its No. 1 OPS (.826). Manaea comes in red-hot but the A's allow 5.42 RPG on the season and own an 'ugly' 5.13 bullpen ERA. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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06-16-17 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The 34-29 Minnesota Twins own a two-game lead over the 32-31 Cleveland Indians in the AL Central and will play the Indians in seven of their next 10 games. The first four games (there will be a Saturday twin-bill) will take place this weekend at Target Field, where Minnesota has gone only 14-20 in 2017. The AL Central has sent Kansas City to the World Series in 2014 and 2015 and Cleveland last year, when the Twins owned MLB's worst record (59-103). However, Minnesota has spent more than half of the 2017 season atop the division and has owned at least a share of the division lead since May 11. The Indians outscored Minnesota 20-7 en route to a three-game sweep at Target Field in mid-April but the Twins took two of three when the teams last met at Progressive Field from May 12-14 (Minnesota is in first because of its 20-9 road mark!). The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (6-3 & 3.36 ERA) gets the starting assignment for the Indians, opposed by the Twins' Nik Turley (0-0 & 9.00 ERA). Carrasco has lost just once since April 28 and is off a solid start the last time out, allowing two runs on seven hits and a walk across 5 1/3 innings in beating the White Sox 4-2 on Sunday. However, Carrasco has not pitched well in his career vs. the Twins, going 2-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 14 games (11 starts / team is 3-8). Turley made his big-league debut against San Francisco on Sunday, settling for a no-decision after giving up four runs on eight hits in four innings. He's a former 50th-round draft pick of the New York Yankees and had toiled for nearly 10 years in the minors before earning his long-awaited promotion after posting a 2.05 ERA and striking out 84 over 52 2/3 innings at two minor-league stops this season. The pick-up: Carrasco's 4-1 (Indians 6-1) in his last seven starts and I expect a good outing. As for Turley, it's "now or never" after his long wait to reach the majors. The results of this weekend and next weekend at Cleveland could set the tone for the rest of the season. Expect a low-scoring game in the first of these seven 'battles.' Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-12-17 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up:The Cubs won 7-5 on Sunday to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rockies in Wrigley Field. Chicago now heads back on the road where the Cubs have lost eight straight (0-6 on the team's last road trip) and haven’t won a series away from Wrigley since taking two of three at Pittsburgh from April 24-26. Sunday's win snapped a four-game slide for the Cubs and the etem's four-HR game was a welcome sight. The Mets com inteo this series having won the last three contests of their four-game weekend series in Atlanta, which has allowed them to move into second place in the NL East, although they remain 9 1/2 games behind the division-leading Nats.
The pitching matchup: John Lackey (4-6 & 5.12 ERA) will get the start for Chicago and Jacob deGrom (4-3 & 4.75 ERA) takes the mound for New York. Lackey is part of a struggling Chicago starting staff and is win-less in his last four starts (he's 0-3 and the etam 1-3 with Lackey owning a 6.65 ERA). Lackey has surrendered 16 HRs in 12 starts this season, as the Cubs are 6-6 in his starts, with Lackey owning a 1.36 WHIP and ,270 opponents BA to go along with his poor ERA. However, Lackey has pitched well against the Mets, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in five career meetings (teams are 3-2). DeGrom comes in off back-to-back poor outings (I'm being kind saying "only" poor). He's been rocked for 15 runs on 18 hits in just eight innings over his last two outings (16.88 ERA). DeGrom is also a modest 2-2 with a 4.61 ERA in five career starts against the Cubs (Mets are 2-3). The pick: Yes, Lackey has struggled lately but he's pitched well against the Mets recently. DeGrom is also struggling but he'll face a Chicago team which has scored only 12 runs during its eight-game road slide. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners won 4-2 in the opener of their three-game home series with the Blue Jays but Toronto bounced back with a similar 4-2 win last night. The teams play the rubber game of the series on Sunday, as the Mariners cap an 11-game homestand (are 7-3 so far). Seattle opened the season 2-8 but has rebounded lately, winning 10 of 13 to sit just one game under .500 (31-32). The bad news is, Seattle resides in the AL West with the 44-19 Astros, so the Mariners are 13 games out of first place. Toronto knows all about slow starts, as the Blue Jays opened 2-11 in 2017. They had gotten to within one game of .500 on June 4 (28-29) but have now lost three of five since. However, despite finding themselves in last place at 30-32, Toronto is 'only' 7 1/2 games out of first in the AL East. The pitching matchup: J.A. Happ (0-4 & 5.33 ERA) toes the rubber for Toronto and James Paxton (5-0 & 1.69 ERA) gets the nod for Seattle. Coming off a 20-4 season in 2016, Happ has been limited to just five starts in 2017 because of injury and is still looking for his first win of the season. He allowed five runs on four hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-3 loss at Oakland on Monday but it was the second-longest outing of the year. Happ spent part of 2015 with Seattle and is 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career starts against his former team (teams are 3-2). While Happ seeks his first win of 2017, Paxton has yet to suffer a defeat this season in eight starts (he's 5-0 but the team has lost his three no-decisions). Incredibly, Paxton has only allowed runs in three of his eight starts in 2017 and in five home starts this season, is 4-0 (team is 4-1) with a 1.17 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The pick: Happ earned his milestone 20th victory of the season at Safeco Field last September, so maybe this start will be his "lucky day" (first win of 2017)? Paxton has been "lights out" at home in 2017 and neither team has shown much offense this weekend, scoring six runs apiece after two games. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-10-17 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox lost two of three to the hated Yankees to open the current week but beat the Tigers 5-3 last night to stay three games back of New York in the AL East. Friday's loss was Detroit's second in a row, dropping them to 29-31. The teams continue their three-game series on Saturday, as two former American League Central Division pitching rivals face each other for the sixth time. The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander (4-4 & 4.63 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit and Chris Sale (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for Boston. The Tigers have won all five previous meetings when Verlander and Sale have squared off, four of them when Sale was with the Chicago White Sox and the other was April 10 of this season with Boston. Verlander was forced out of his last start after two innings due to groin tightness but testing came back negative and he will start with an extra day of rest. Verlander breezed through seven innings against Boston back on April 10, allowing an unearned run on three hits without factoring in the decision. Sale has not lost since April 27 and recovered from a rough first inning at Baltimore on Sunday to strike out nine in six innings while allowing three runs in the win. He leads the majors with 119 strikeouts (has allowed just 17 walks) and is limiting opponents to a .201 batting average (has allowed 61 hits in 84 innings and owns an 0.93 WHIP). Sale struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings at Detroit back on April 10 but surrendered two runs on five hits to suffer the loss. The pick: Veralnder has faced Boston 17 times in his career and he's just 5-6 (team is 7-8). However, he owns a 2.65 ERA against the Red Sox, including an 0.82 ERA in his last five starts against Boston! Sale has been one of 2017's most dominating pitchers (see above stats) and this one has Under written all over it (10*). |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cards lost three games last weekend at Wrigley and then lost a four-game set at Cincinnati to open this week. They returned home from their 0-7 road trip to open a seven-game homestand on Friday, beginning with the MLB-worst, Philadelphia Phillies. Five of the Cardinals' first six batters in the lineup recorded two hits last night but even so, the Cards barely eked out a 3-2 win over the Phillies, who are now 21-38 and on a three-game slide (Phils are just 9-24 on the road). The win gives the Cards a 27-32 record and with no one playing all that well in the NL Central, find themselves a modest 4 1/2 games out of first (the first-place Brewers visit St. Louis for four games beginning Monday). The pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (1-2 & 5.18 ERA) gets the start for the Phillies, up against the Cards' Carlos Martinez (4-5 & 3.29 ERA). Pivetta is a rookie who is coming off his first ML victory, winning 11-4 in Atlanta on Monday. He gave up three runs over five innings in his win but note that he has yet to work more than five innings in any of his five 2017 starts. Pivetta will be facing St. Louis for the first time. Martinez has lost two of his last three outings, including Monday's 4-2 setback at Cincinnati in which he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings. Martinez has proven to a quality starter these last two seasons, winning 14 and 16 games, respectively. Martinez has made five appearances against the Phillies in his career (3.21 ERA) but just two starts, winning both. The pitching matchup: The Phillies are just 9-24 on the road, where they are averaging only 3.64 RPG (Phils have scored just four runs during their current three-game slide!). Martinez has pitched well at home, winning three straight decisions and going unbeaten in five outings since losing to the Reds on April 9. In seven home starts in 2017, he owns a 2.19 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The jury is still out on Pivetta but he'll face a St. Louis team which has averaged a modest 3.70 ERA in 30 home games so far in 2017 and a team struggling at the plate recently, having scored only 11 runs over its last five games, overall (that's 2.2 per). Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-09-17 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds have won four in a row and at 29-30, are just two games out of first place in the tightly-bunched NL Central. Cincinnati completed a four-game sweep of St. Louis with a 5-2 victory Thursday but come to LA to open a three-game series at Dodger Stadium where the Reds have lost six straight contests and five series in a row. The 36-25 Los Angeles Dodgers own the second-most home victories (22) in MLB, despite kicking off a six-game homestand Monday-Wednesday by losing two of three to Washington. Good news is on the way though, as third baseman Justin Turner (.379) could return Friday after missing 19 games because of a hamstring injury The pitching matchup: Amir Garrett (3-4 & 7.17 ERA) will start for the Reds and Rich Hill (2-2 & 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the Dodgers. Garrett all was crushed his last time out, allowing nine runs (eight earned) on seven hits (three HRs)) and three walks in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-8 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. "I was trying to do too much with the changeup," he told reporters. "It is easy to fix. I need to get in the bullpen and work on it." It's nice to know that he is confident but since winning his first two career starts, the rookie is 1-4 with a 9.27 ERA in his last seven outings (Reds are 2-5). Hill has been limited to sis starts in 2017, mostly because of lingering blister issues (that plagued him last year, as well). He received a no-decision after yielding three runs (two earned), three hits and four walks while striking out five in four innings of Los Angeles' 10-8 victory in Milwaukee last Saturday. He was 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA in six outings with the Dodgers in 2016 but has not pitched into the sixth inning this season. Hill is 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA in nine games (seven starts / teams are 4-3) versus Cincinnati. The pick: With Garrett's recent woes, the initial thought would be over. However, the Dodgers have managed just five runs in their last four games. Also, note that when healthy (Hill says he's in good shape), he's pitched well (note his 1.83 ERA in six starts for LA in 2016). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-08-17 | Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Battle of the Beltway gets set for a one-game showdown on Thursday, as the Orioles and Nats meet in Washington, making up a May 11th game which was rained out. The Orioles won both games in Baltimore back on May 8 and 9, before the Nats won May 10th in Washington, before getting rained out. The Nats are returning home off a very successful 7-2 nine-game road trip and at 37-21, own the NL's best record and an 11 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The Orioles are 31-26 and sit in third place in the AL East, 2 1/2 games back of the first-place Yankees. Baltimore is 21-10 at home but just 10-16 on the road. The pitching matchup: Alec Asher (2-3 & 3.62 ERA) will start for Baltimore, opposed by Washington's Joe Ross (2-2 & 7.34 ERA). Asher made his fourth start and 13th appearance of the season on Friday against Boston and breezed through 6 1/3 innings while allowing two runs and three hits without issuing a walk. That was a a HUGE improvement from his previous start, when he allowed six runs on six hits in just two innings at Houston on May 28th. Asher spent 2015 and 2016 in the NL East with the Phillies and is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Washington. Ross is in danger of losing his rotation spot after getting lit up for a total of 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in seven innings over his last two starts. He had returned to the rotation on May 23 and beat Seattle 10-1, allowing just and one run in eight innings but he's been brutal in his last two outings. Ross has never started against Baltimore, making a lone relief appearance against the Orioles in his career (1 /3 hitless innings). The pick: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition stands at 2-1 Baltimore, heading into this game. Washington had to fly back from LA last night, after a day game with the Dodgers, and were scheduled to have a day off. However, they must make up that May 11 rain out. Neither pitcher is a front of the rotation starter but this game still 'smells' like an Under (10*s). |
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06-07-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals beat the Dodgers 2-1 last night behind Scherzer's dominating pitching (7 IP/ 3 hits / 1 unearned run / 14Ks) and have now gone 7-1 on their current road trip. That trip concludes with an afternoon game at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, as the Nats look to sweep the Dodgers (won 4-2 on Monday). The Dodgers were shut out 3-0 at Milwaukee on Sunday and have now been held to just three runs by the Nats these last two games. LA had been 21-8 at home as the new week began but are now 21-10 on their home field and look to not only avoid a three-game home sweep but break out a a slide which has seen them lose five of their last seven. |
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06-06-17 | Mets v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers had a 10-game winning streak from May 9 through May 19 but that's been long forgotten. The Rangers spent their weekend by losing a three-game series to the major league-leading Astros and open the new week as losers of four straight and 10 of their last 12, leaving them 15 1/2 games behind Houston at 26-31. The New York Mets visit the Rangers for the start of a two-game interleague series on Tuesday and are just 24-31 themselves, after losing four of their last five. However, the Mets do find themselves a little closer to first place in the NL East, 11 1/2 games back of the Nationals. |
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06-05-17 | Giants v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The 30-27 Milwaukee Brewers still hold down the top spot in the NL Central but are now just one game up on the Cubs, who swept a three-game home series against the Cards over the weekend. Eric Thames was mired in a 4-for-33 slump and with just one HR since May 9 and was out of the starting lineup in Saturday's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers but he hit his 15th homer to help the Brewers salvage the finale of the three-game set with a 3-0 Sunday win. The Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a seven-game homestand this week, beginning with the first of four games with the Giants on Monday. San Francisco lost 9-7 at Philadelphia on Sunday, the team's ninth loss in its last 12 games, leaving the Giants a woeful 23-35 here in 2017. |
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06-04-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs returned home off an 0-6 West Coast trip, getting swept by the Dodgers and then the sad-sack Padres. Waiting for them were the hated Cardinals and the "Friendly Confines" have been good to the Cubs so far this weekend, with a 3-2 win on Friday and a 5-3 win on Saturday. The Chicago Cubs are just 27-27 in 2017, in large part because several of their young stars have failed to live up their expectations. They now go for a three-game sweep of the 26-27 Cards Sunday night on ESPN. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (2-3 & 3.99 ERA) takes the mound tonight for St. Louis and Kyle Hendricks (4-3 & 3.75 ERA). Wacha is win-less in his last six starts (he's 0-2 and the Cards 1-5), He hasn’t made it through five innings in either of his last two outings, allowing10 runs (nine earned) in just seven innings. Wacha has not pitched well vs. the Cubs in his career, going 4-5 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 starts (team is 5-6). Hendricks retired the first 10 batters he faced Monday at San Diego but a grand slam from Hunter Renfroe ultimately ruined his day. After a slow start in 2017, he has five quality starts in his last seven outings and he owns a 1.96 ERA in his last three home starts. Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts against the Cardinals (Cubs are 4-4). The pick: The Cardinals have not scored more than four runs in any of their last 10 games (3-7 record) and the Cubs surely aren't ripping the cover off the ball, either. Chicago was held to nine runs in its 0-6 West Coast trip and has a modest eight runs the first two games of this series (that's 2.13 RPG over the team's last eight games. However, the over is 7-2 in Wacha's nine starts in 2017 and in his 11 career starts against the Cubs, the ob\ver is a remarkable 10-1. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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06-04-17 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 24-30 Kansas City Royals are tied for last place in the AL Central with the Chicago White Sox and are just one-half game ahead of 24-31 Oakland, for the worst record in the AL. However, they have pretty much owned the defending AL champs (Cleveland) these last eight days. The Royals took two of three at Cleveland last weekend and rolled over the Indians in the first two games of this current series by a combined score of 16-5. "We have to get a little rest and come back and play a lot better because that wasn't close to good enough," Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters after Saturday's 12-5 setback. The good news for Cleveland is that no team is playing all that well in the AL Central, so despite the Indians' 28-26 record, they are just one game out of first place. The pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (5-4 & 6.00 ERA) gets the ball for Cleveland and Eric Skoglund (1-0 & 0.00 ERA) makes his second ML start for Kansas City. Bauer's season numbers are not good but he is 3-0 in his last four starts (Indians are 3-1), posting a 4.13 ERA but he also owns a 36-4 KW ratio in that span. Bauer is 1-2 with a 3.56 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals (team is 4-3). Skoglund made his major-league debut against Detroit on Tuesday and scattered two hits and one walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out five. He was 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A before being recalled and owns a 3.74 ERA in 60 career minor-league games. |
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06-02-17 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins came to Anaheim on a four-game losing streak in which they had allowed a whopping 48 runs (40 in a three-game home series against the Astros) and shut down the Angels 4-2, giving Minnesota MLB's best road record at 15-5 (plus-$1222 vs. the moneyline). Albert Pujols failed in his attempt to become the ninth player in major-league history to reach 600 HRs, as the Angels fell to 2-2 on their seven-game homestand,. Playing in a division with the Astros (owners of MLB's best record at 38-16), the 28-29 Angels find themselves 11 1/2 games out of first place. Minnesota began its 10-game road trip with a win and despite a modest 27-23 record, are in a virtual tie with the Indians for first place in the AL Central. |
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06-02-17 | Pirates v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets had won three straight before dropping the final two games of their four-game set against Milwaukee this week. They host Pittsburgh for a three-game weekend series with Pirates starting tonight, after taking two of three against the Pirates last weekend at Pittsburgh. Both teams sit six games below .500 entering this series (Pirates are 24-30 and the Mets 23-29). The Mets may be in second place in the NL East but they are 10 games behind the Nats, while even though the Pirates are in last in the NL Central, they are just five games out of first. |
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06-01-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards have found the going pretty tough in what's been a 13-game stretch against NL West teams the Dodgers, Giants and Rockies. St. Louis did eke out a 2-1 win at home over the Dodgers last night but the victory represents only the Cards' fourth win in 12 games against this NL West trio. Meanwhile, Wednesday's loss halted the Dodgers' six-game winning streak but the team ended May with a 19-9 mark, the third-best record for that month during the club's tenure in Los Angeles (free history lesson: The Dodgers moved from Brooklyn to LA to begin the 1958 season). The pitching matchup: Brandon McCarthy (5-1 & 3.28 ERA) will start for LA and Adam Wainwright (5-3, 4.20 ERA) for St. Louis. McCarthy has has put together excellent back-to-back outings, allowing just one run on five hits over 12 innings in the two victories (0.75 ERA). He blanked the Chicago Cubs on two hits over six innings in his last start and has given up two or fewer runs in six of his eight. McCarthy has posted a 4.15 ERA in three career no-decisions against St. Louis (teams are 1-2). Wainwright has won three straight starts,allowing only one run on 12 hits over 20 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.44 ERA!). He's put his poor start in 2017 behind him and shut down Colorado at Coors Field in his last outing, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings. Wainwright's seen a lot of the Dodgers with 14 career appearances (11 starts), going 4-5 with a 2.90 ERA. The pick: As noted above, both McCarthy and Wainwright enter in excellent form. The Dodgers have been dominant at home (21-8 while averaging about 5 1/2 runs) but mediocre on the road at just 12-13, while averaging 4.44 RPG. The Cards have also struggled at home (just 13-15, averaging 3.79 RPG) and during their current 4-8 run against NL West opponents, have averaged a woeful 3.17 RPG. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-31-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins are happy to see the month of May end, as even though Miami has won four of its last five (and are on the verge of a three-game sweep of the Phils), the Marlins check in at 9-18 overall in May. Miami won 7-2 last night (third straight win) and has now scored at least seven runs for the third time during its 4-1 stretch. The Marlins go for a three-game sweep of the Phils, which would be their first sweep over their NL East rival since June 29-July 1, 2012. Giving them a good chance to complete that sweep is the fact that the Phillies have lost 24 of their last 30 and own MLB's worst overall record at 17-33 (also own MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$1388). The pitching matchup:Aaron Nola (2-2 & 4.34 ERA) will take the mound for Philadelphia and Dan Straily (3-3 & 3.83 ERA) for Miami. Nola is off his worst outing of the season in Friday's 5-2 loss to Cincinnati, surrendering a pair of HRs among the six hits and five runs he gave up in six innings. Nola is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA over three career starts against Miami (team is 2-1). Straily extended his unbeaten streak to four starts (he's 2-0 but the team just 2-2) with Friday's 8-5 win over the LA Angels. He ranks second in the majors in batting average against at .176, after allowing three runs on six hits across 5 1/3 innings in beating LA. Straily threw five scoreless innings against Philadelphia last year to win his only career start versus the Phillies (1-0 & 0.00 ERA). The pick: Philadelphia has scratched out only six hits through two games in Miami and has now scored just two runs or fewer eight times in its last 10 contests. No reason to think that the Philly bats will wake up here vs. Straily, who been dominant at home with a 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .150 batting average against. Straily's counterpart (Nola) has been much better away from Citizens Bank Park (with a 3.18 ERA) than at home (6.00 ERA) plus was very sharp against Miami last year despite picking up two no-decisions, permitting just three runs over 12 innings while holding the Marlins to a .190 average. The Under is 10* play. |
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05-30-17 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: No team is "pulling way" in the NL Central, so Chicago's modest 25-25 record has them just 1 1/2 games out of first place. However, the team's struggling offense is cause for concern. The Padres won 5-2 win in Monday’s series opener, sending Chicago to its fourth straight loss to begin a six-game West Coast trip. The Cubs are 1-for-24 with runners in scoring position during their four-game skid and they’ve left 31 men on base. The Cubs are batting .238 as a team (25rth) and heir 65 HRs rank 13th. The win was San Diego's second in a row but at 20-33, the Padres own a better record than only the 17-32 Phillies among all MLB teams. The pitching matchup: Eddie Butler (2-0 & 1.93 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs and Dinelson Lamet (1-0 & 1.80 ERA) for the Padres. Butler is making a strong bid to remain in the rotation, as he has allowed just three runs over 14 innings in his first three outings with the Cubs. He had some control problems in his second start (five walks in three innings), but he rebounded Thursday to hold San Francisco to one run on four hits over five innings and earn his second win. Butler started with Colorado in 2014 and is in his first season with the Cubs. He had made 36 appearances (28 starts) with the Rockies from 2014-16, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three games (two starts) against the Padres, all at Petco Park. Lamet was impressive in his major-league debut Thursday in New York against the Mets, striking out eight and allowing one run and three hits over five innings (a solo HR accounted for the only run he allowed). Lamet has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout his minor-league career and had struck 50 over 39 innings over eight starts at Triple-A El Paso before being called up. The pick: Butler has pitched very well but his brief ML history says it's unlikely to last. As for Lamet, this is just his second career start. The Cubs are overdue to begin hitting and there is every reason to think that Butler's "good outings" are about to end. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-29-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The pick: Leake has been little more than a journeyman in his career but is sure pitching well in 2017 and I'm starting to believe it just may be "one of those seasons" for him. To go along with his 1.91 ERA, he owns an 0.93 WHIP, 42-10 KW ratio and opponents are batting only .210 against him. The Dodgers are 21-8 at home (averaging more than 5 1/2 runs) but just 10-12 on the road, where they are averaging 4.36 RPG. As for the Cards, they have not played well at home, going only 12-12 while averaging 3.96 RPG. The Under is an 8* play. |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks lost 93 games in 2016 but enter this weekend as MLB's hottest team, as Friday night's 4-2 win in 10 innings at Milwaukee gives them 10 wins in their last 11 games. Arizona is now 31-19 overall, just one game back of first-place Colorado in the NL West after last night's dramatic win. The loss had to be particularly painful for the Brewers, who lost a 2-1 lead with two outs in the ninth inning on a HR by Arizona catcher Chris Iannetta, then lost in the 10th. Milwaukee was shut out 4-0 on Thursday by Arizona and has now managed just two runs on 11 hits in losing the first two games of this series. The Brewers, who placed Ryan Braun (calf) on the 10-day disabled list Friday, enter Saturday's contest on a season-high five-game slide, leaving them 25-23 but still just a half-game back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (6-2 & 2.82 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Chase Anderson (2-1 & 4.25 ERA). Greinke has won four straight starts (2.37 ERA) and Miller Park holds a special place in his heart. He's won 16 of 18 career decisions at Miller Park, including an 11-0 mark in 2011 while a member of the Brewers. However, while he has not allowed an earned run in his last 12 2/3 innings against Milwaukee, he's just 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA over four career starts against the Brewers (teams are 1-3). Anderson has completed as many as five innings just once in four May starts, giving up six runs in four innings last Sunday at Wrigley Field in Chicago, while serving up three HRs to the Cubs in a 13-6 loss. The one-time D'back is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against his former team (1-1). The pick: Anderson posted a 1.12 ERA through his first four outings of 2017 but he's got a 7.30 mark in his last five starts, after allowing a season-high six ERs in his last outing Sunday against the Cubs. He faces an Arizona lineup that's averaging 5.73 RPG in winning 10 of 11, so it will be tough to turn around his woes in this one. But Greinke comes in red-hot plus he 'loves' Miller Park. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Seemingly, the Diamondbacks have put last year's 93-loss season behind them, as red-hot Arizona looks for its ninth victory in 10 games while attempting to hand Milwaukee its first four-game losing streak of the season. Arizona opens a four-game series in Milwaukee on Thursday on the heels of sweeping a three-game home series over the White Sox with Wednesday's 8-6 win. The D'backs own MLB's best home record (21-8) but aare more modest 8-11 on the road. Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost three in a row, after having won 10 of 12 contests before their slide. Milwaukee's 25-21 record has them a half-game up on both the Cards and Cubs in the NL Central but the Brewers are under .500 (12-13) here at Miller Park. |
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05-23-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-19 St. Louis Cardinals and the 26-19 Los Angeles Dodgers were both off on Monday and get together at Dodger Stadium Tuesday night for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing slide with an 8-3 victory over San Francisco on Sunday. The Dodgers won 6-3 at home over the Marlins on Sunday and have followed a three-game skid of their own by winning four of their last five. St. Louis opens a six-game road trip with this game, while the Dodgers continue a 10-game homestand (the Cubs visit over the weekend). The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (4-2 & 2.78 ERA) goes for the Cards and Clayton Kershaw (7-2 & 2.15 ERA) for the Dodgers. Lynn gave up two HRs for the second straight start last Tuesday and took his first loss since April 11 with a 6-3 setback versus Boston. However, he did work at least six innings for the fifth time in his last six outings, with St. Louis winning all but one of those starts. Lynn owns a 4-1 career mark in eight starts versus the Dodgers (4.04 ERA / Cards are 5-3). Kershaw has won three CY Young awards and is off a brilliant performance in his last outing on Wednesday, scattering three hits over seven scoreless innings in a 6-1 victory at San Francisco. Kershaw has fared well against St. Louis in the regular season, posting a 6-5 career mark with a 3.18 ERA in 15 outings, as opposed to an 0-4 record in the playoffs. The pick: The over/under number is always tantalizingly low in a Kershaw start and note that Lynn has allowed two HRs in each of his last two outings. He'll face an LA lineup which has averaged 5.74 RPG in going 16-7 at home and Kershaw could easily have his hands full with a St. Louis team which is 10-6 on the road (averaging 5.44 RPG), after erupting for 43 runs en route to back-to-back three-game sweeps at Atlanta and Miami from May 5-10. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-23-17 | Tigers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros got swept in a three-game home series by the Indians over the weekend but still opened the new week with MLB's best record. Four Houston pitchers combined on a one-hitter in Monday's 1-0 victory over the Tigers, as Houston became the first team in the majors to reach 30 wins while also establishing the best 45-game start (30-15) in franchise history. Detroit has now dropped five of its last eight games to fall under .500 at 21-22. Monday's setback occurred in the opener of the team's 11-game road trip. The pitching matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (4-2 & 6.25 ERA) gets the nod for Detroit and Lance McCullers (4-1 & 2.65). Zimmermann is hoping to begin a turnaround to a season in which he has given up four or more runs in six of his first eight starts. Maybe it will start against Houston, as Zimmermann is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in five career starts against the Astros (teams are 3-2). McCullers scattered three hits over six scoreless innings to defeat 3-0 Miami in his last outing (Wednesday). That makes him the the first Houston pitcher to work at least six innings without allowing an earned run in three consecutive starts since Roy Oswalt did it back in 2008. McCullers won his lone career start against Detroit in 2015, when he gave up two runs on six hits in six innings (3.00 ERA).
The pick: McCullers is off to an excellent start in 2017 and here at home, owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four starts (he's 2-0 and the team 4-0!). As for Zimmermann, he last faced Houston on April 30, 2014, allowing seven hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 6 1/3 shutout innings. He's pitched reasonably well at Minute Maid Park with a 3.42 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings over four career starts there. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Angels will visit the Tampa Rays on Monday to open a four-game series, with both teams sporting identical 23-23 records.The Rays saw their four-game winning steak snapped with a 3-2 loss to New York on Sunday but have won their last three series after taking two of three from the Yankees over the weekend. Meanwhile the Angels have captured five of their last seven games, including a 12-5 road victory over the New York Mets on Sunday in which they belted four HR. Mike Trout, who is batting .350 on the season, hit one of the LA's homers and added a double as he has now reached base in 38 of the 40 games in which he has played this year. However, Albert Pujols (right hamstring) has missed three straight contests and is listed day-to-day. The pitching matchup: JC Ramirez (3-3 & 3.97 ERA) gets the ball for LA and Jake Odorizzi (3-2 & 3.16 ERA) for the Rays. Ramirez has completed at least five innings in all seven starts this season and limited opponents to three or fewer runs five times. However, has managed to record just one victory in that five-game span, although the Angels are 4-1 in those games. Ramirez opened the season 2-0 in three relief stints but will now make an eighth straight start. He has worked two scoreless innings of relief versus the Rays in his career. Odorizzi allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings his last time out at Cleveland (won ), after allowing one run in each of his previous three starts. He has held opponents to a .195 batting average and has a 0.89 WHIP this season but needs to cut down on the long balls, having surrendered seven HRs in seven outings. While it's a small sample size, Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA against the Angels in four career starts (team is 1-3). The pick: Despite LA's 12-run outburst at Citi Field on Sunday, the Angels are averaging only 3.57 RPG in 23 road games this season (just 8-15). Odorizzi's LT record against LA is poor but his 2017 WHIP and opponents BA (see above for both numbers) are impressive. Likewise, Ramirez has found a home as a starter for LA. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-21-17 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers ended the Rangers' 10-game winning streak. Miguel Cabrera returned to the lineup from a three-game injury absence and homered, one of four hit by Detroit. J.D. Martinez continued his torrid pace by launching his sixth HR in eight contests since making his season debut on May 12. The Tigers will be starting an 11-game road trip on Monday (it begins with four against major league-best Houston) but first must solve a pitcher that has owned them. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (4-2 & 2.76 ERA) takes the mound for Texas up against Detroit's Matthew Boyd (2-3 & 5.18 ERA). Darvish has won all six career starts against Detroit, although his ERA is not "lights out" (3.46). However, he enters on a five-start unbeaten streak, coming off permitting just one run on four hits over seven innings to beat Philadelphia 5-1 last Tuesday. He's 3-0 in his five-game unbeaten streak with Texas going 5-0 in those games. Boyd will need to bounce back from a dreadful performance against Baltimore last Tuesday, when he tied a season low with 2 1/3 innings pitched, getting battered for seven runs on eight hits, as the Tigers lost 13-11 in 13 innings. However, that awful outing was preceded by a string of three straight quality starts, although the Tigers lost all three of them. He is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers. The pick: Let's give Boyd a 'mulligan" for his last outing and expect that the ESPN cameras will motivate him. As noted above, Darvish needs no extra motivation when pitching against the Tigers (he has to be full of confidence) plus his current run of five starts in which Texas has won all five (Darvish owns a 2.38 ERA), surely won't hurt that confidence. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-21-17 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: CC Sabathia (3-2 & 4.93 ERA) takes the mound for New York up against Tampa's Chris Archer (3-2 & 3.70 ERA). Sabathia allowed just five hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 7-1 victory at Kansas City last Tuesday. It was a welcome relief for the veteran who had given up 22 runs on 30 hits over 20 2/3 innings in his previous four outings. CC is very familiar with the Rays, having gone 15-14 (3.76 ERA) in 42 career starts against them (teams are 22-20). Archer's off a 'nightmare' 2016 season but started well in 2017. However, he's managed just one victory over his last six starts. He had put together three quality starts but then got pounded for seven runs (six earned) over five innings at Cleveland last Monday in a in an 8-7 loss. He's is 6-5 with a 2.63 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees (Rays are 8-6). The pick: Archer's troubles have come on the road in 2017, as the team is 4-1 in his home starts, with Archer posting a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. As for CC, while he owns a bloated 7.41 ERA at Yankee Stadium, his road ERA is a respectable 3.45. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-20-17 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals' bullpen allowed six runs over the final three innings of Friday's 6-5 loss to the Giants, spoiling six scoreless innings by St. Louis starter Michael Wacha, not to mention and a three-run HR in the seventh by Dexter Fowler. This three-game series continues Saturday night, with the Cards looking to snap a season high-tying three-game losing streak. As for the Giants, going into the ninth inning of a May 10 game at the New York Mets, the Giants were trailing 3-2 and hadn't rallied for a road win when trailing in the ninth since 2015. However, they scored four runs in the ninth inning at New York to beat the Mets 6-5 that game. They had been back in San Francisco until last night (went 5-2) but after erasing a 5-4 deficit in the ninth Friday night at St. Louis, now own consecutive 9th-inning comeback wins on the road.f However, let's not get too carried away, as the Giants are only 7-15 on the road in 2017. The pitching matchup: Jeff Samardzija (1-5 & 5.26 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants and Carlos Martinez (3-3 & 3.88 ERA) for the Cards. Samardzija is once again failing to live up to his supposed potential. In fact, his first win of the 2017 came just this past Sunday at home against Cincinnati, which he held to three runs in 6 2/3 innings. Samardzija may have 28 strikeouts with no walks over his last three appearances but he owns just a single win in eight starts! He is 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cards (teams are 6-4). Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts this month after leading his team past the Chicago Cubs last Saturday. He allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings against the defending champs, while striking out seven for the second consecutive start. He's 2-0 with 2.37 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. The pick: Samardzija owns a 6.66 ERA on the road in 2017 (four starts) but there's also that 47-8 KW ratio over his last six starts to consider. Yes, the Giants have hit better lately (have averaged 5.0 runs the last five games) but they still rank 29th in scoring (3.44 per), 27th in team BA (.234) and 30th in OPS (.646). As for the Cards, they are averaging a very modest 3.91 RPG in going 11-12 at home. The Under is a 10* play. |
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05-19-17 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The 17-23 Kansas City Royals will be in Minnesota tonight for the opener of a three-game series with the 20-17 Twins. This series opens a 10-game road trip for the Royals, who are winless in five games against the Twins this season. Minnesota halted a three-game slide with a 2-0 victory over Colorado in the second game of Thursday's doubleheader but the Twins have scored just 14 runs in their last six contests. |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto opened the week having won seven of eight games and after a 2-11 start to 2017, sat at 17-21. The Blue Jays had to be confident as the new week began with a four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta had lost 93 games in 2016 and opened the week at 13-21, having gone 7-15 since a 6-6 start. However, the Braves have won three consecutive games against the Blue Jays heading into Thursday’s finale of the series at SunTrust Park. The bad news for Atlanta is, first baseman Freddie Freeman left Wednesday’s 8-4 victory when he was hit by a pitch on the left wrist. Freeman, who started the day leading the National League in HRs while ranking in the top-10 in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He is scheduled to undergo further testing Thursday. It's been a contentious series, as Toronto pitchers have hit seven Atlanta hitters in the past three games while allowing 27 runs during that stretch. It's led to two bench-clearing incidents in Wednesday's contest. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (3-2 & 3.33 ERA) will take the mound for Toronto and Julio Teheran (3-3 & 4.08 ERA) will toe the rubber for Atlanta. Stroman has posted a 2.87 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents to two runs or less four times in that span. Stroman pitched two complete games in his first four starts of 2017 but makes his first career appearance against Atlanta. Teheran won 3-1 at Miami last Saturday, allowing three hits with four strikeouts across six scoreless innings. He may be Atlanta's ace but in three career starts against Toronto (0-0 record with team going 2-1), he's posted a 6.60 ERA with five HRs allowed over 15 innings. The pick: The Blue Jays pitching staff has allowed 27 runs in the first three games of this series and while Stroman owns a 2.87 ERA over his last five starts, he's allowed 33 hits in 31 1/3 innings during those starts. That kind of ratio tends to catch up with a pitcher. As for Teheran, he not only owns that ugly 6.60 ERA in three career outings vs. Toronto, but before his strong outing last Saturday, he had surrendered 19 ERs over 21 1/3 innings in his four previous starts, going 1-3 with an 8.02 ERA and five HRs allowed. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-17-17 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 107 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets have lost the first two of this three-game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, 7-3 and 5-4. They have now lost six straight, while allowing opponents to average 7.8 runs during the team's slide. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have won five of their last seven and have upped their home record in 2017 to an impressive 17-8. That's quite an improvement for a team which was a woeful 33-48 at home in 2016, while going 69-93 overall, in finishing 22 games back of the division-winning Dodgers in the NL West. |
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05-16-17 | Astros v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros opened this four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Miami Marlins by taking Monday's contest, 7-2. Yuli Gurriel led the way with a grand slam, Houston's third in May, which sets a franchise record for one month. The 27-12 Astros own MLB's best record, are now 13-6 on the road and have won each of their three interleague games. Meanwhile, the Marlins are headed in the opposite direction. After opening the season at 10-8, the Marlins have gone 4-15 since, and have not won consecutive games since April 22-23. Houston owns an eight-game lead in the AL West, while Miami occupies the basement in the NL East at 14-23. The Marlins are already 10 games back of the Nationals in the division and the team's winning percentage of .378 is better than only San Diego, which is 15-25 (.375). The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel (6-0 & 1.69 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Tom Koehler (1-1 & 5.60 ERA) for Miami. Keuchel will try to become MLB's first seven-game winner, after he beat the Yankees 3-2 last Thursday. It was his shortest outing of the year (aix innings) but he tied a season high with nine strikeouts and walked only one. He is tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched (58 2/3) and his ERA is third overall among qualified hurlers. The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner allowed two unearned runs over seven innings in his only previous start against Miami, a game in which he took the loss. Koehler has finished as many as six innings only twice in his first seven starts of 2017 and has fallen shy of that mark three straight times, including a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday in which he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He threw a season-high 99 pitches in that outing but for the first time in 2017, didn't allow a HR. He has won his only prior start against the Astros, although his ERA in that game was 5.40! The pick: Houston is 15 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2005 season (89-73) and Keuchel has regained his 2015 Cy Young form. As noted above, the Marlins are in a 4-15 funk which includes a 1-6 mark on their current homestand,. Miami has managed just six runs in its last three games, going 2 of 21 (.095) with RISP. I see little reason to think that the Marlins will 'touch' Keuchel. The Under is a 10* play. |
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05-15-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Kevin Pillar’s walk-off homer gave the Blue Jays a 3-2 win on Sunday over Seattle, Toronto's fifth victory in a row and seventh in eight games. Toronto had played in both the 2015 and 2016 ALCS but lost 11 of 13 to open the 2017 season. However, the Blue Jays are now 15-10 since that ugly start and open this two-game interleague home series against the Atlanta Braves with a 17-21 mark. Atlanta was not able to complete a three-game sweep in Miami on Sunday, falling 3-1. The Braves sit at 13-21 (already 9 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and only the 14-25 Gianst own a worse winning percentage in MLB. The pitching matchup: Bartolo Colon (1-4 & 7.22 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta, opposed by Toronto's Mike Bolsinger (0-1 & 3.18 ERA). Atlanta signed Colon as a free agent and he's been a big disappointment. He gave up five first-inning runs and eight overall in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday at Houston, extending a stretch during which he has surrendered 36 hits and an OPS of 1.099. His lone win this season came when he allowed just one hit in seven innings against San Diego back on April 16. However, he has yielded seven or more hits in each of his four starts since (36 hits & 23 ERs in 21 IP). Colon has posted a 10-6 record and 4.25 ERA in 26 career starts against Toronto (teams are 15-11). Bolsinger makes his second start of the season after losing his debut against Cleveland on Tuesday, when he gave up two runs on three hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. He is 8-17 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 games over four major-league seasons but had posted a 1.46 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Buffalo before joining Toronto. Bolsinger has made two career starts against Atlanta as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, going 1-1 with a4.22 ERA. The pick: Since earning his lone win of 2017 (4/16), Colon owns a 9.55 ERA in four starts. As for Bolsinger, he's nothing more than a journeyman. The play here is a 10* on the Over. |
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05-14-17 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Milwaukee placed Ryan Braun on the 10-day disabled list prior to Friday's game with the Mets but the Brewers haven't missed him, winning 7-4 on Friday (team had four HRs) and last night, used 16 hits (just one HR) and an eight-run 5th to win, 11-4! The 20-17 Brewers will attempt to complete a sweep of the visiting Mets and post their sixth victory in seven contests Sunday. The Mets are heading in the opposite direction, as after winning five of their previous six, the Mets have dropped three straight to find themselves three games under .500 (16-19). |
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05-12-17 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants had two starting position players return to the lineup Thursday but they still wound up on the losing end of a 3-2 game. Denard Span went 4-for-5 with a double and a solo HR after missing about three weeks with a shoulder sprains and hortstop Brandon Crawford (groin) went 1-for-4 from the cleanup spot in his return from the disabled list. With the defeat, San Francisco fell to a major league-worst 12-24 record and have now lost all four meetings with the Reds in 2017. The Reds have won seven of their last eight overall and sit at 19-15, a half-game back of the first-place Cards in the NL Central. |
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05-12-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers out-hit the Rockies Thursday 14-12 in the first contest of a four-game series at Coors Field. However, Colorado won the game 10-7, moving 2 1/2 games up on LA in the NL West. The loss snapped the Dodgers' season-high five-game winning streak, while the victory was the seventh in nine games for Colorado, which is off to the best 36-game start in franchise history at 23-13 The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (5-2 & 2.40 ERA) will start for LA and Yyler Chatwood (3-4 & 4.74 ERA). Kershaw defeated San Diego in his last start, striking out nine in 7 1/3 innings while giving up just one run and five hits. This marks his third start of 2017 vs. Colorado, having split two decisions. The loss came back on April 8 at Coors, when Kershaw served up three HRs, allowing back-to-back HRs for the first time in his career. He's 19-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 34 career starts vs. Colrado (Dodgers are 25-9). Chatwood is coming off an excellent last outing, in which he allowed one run on two hits over seven-plus innings of a 5-2 victory against Arizona. It was a sharp turnaround from his previous three starts, when he surrendered 14 runs on 19 hits in 16 1/3 innings. Chatwood is 4-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Dodgers (teams are 4-7). The pick: The teams pounded out 26 hits and scored 17 runs on Thursday. Expect a different result here. Kershaw has limited opposing batters to a .210 average with a 53-7 KW ratio over 48 2/3 innings (0.92 WHIP). In 34 career starts vs. Colorado, Kershaw has limited Rockies hitters to a .220/.283/.329 slash line. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-11-17 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals opened their four-game series at Tampa Bay this past Monday on an eight-game road losing streak. However, the Royals won 7-3 on Monday and then again on Tuesday, 7-6 in 12 innings. KC's good fortune turned on Wednesday though, as the Rays enjoyed their best offensive outburst of the season. Tampa Bay's Colby Rasmus capped a three-hit performance with a grand slam in a 12-1 rout, a game in which Tampa Bay's lineup pounded out 16 hits. The teams wrap the series with a Thursday afternoon contest. |
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05-10-17 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals opened their four-game series at Tampa Bay on an eight-game road losing streak but have won the first two contests, 7-3 on Monday and then, in a 12-inning game on Tuesday, 7-6. Mike Moustakas hit a solo HR in the 12th to provide the margin of victory for the Royals, who rallied from a four-run deficit. KC now has a chance to clinch its first series win since sweeping a three-game set from the LA Angels back on April 14-16. Tampa Bay has lost three straight to drop three games below .500 for the first time this year, at 13-16. The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (1-3 & 5.53 ERA) will get the nod for the Royals and Chris Archer (2-1 & 3.57 ERA) for the Rays. Hammel is coming off his best start of the season, which resulted in his first victory in a Kansas City uniform. He limited Cleveland to one run on three hits over six innings in a 3-1 win on Friday. However, Hammel has sure not pitched the way KC had hoped, when the Royals signed him to a FA deal in February. Prior's to Friday's win, he had lasted only three innings in each of his previous two starts and even after a good effort vs. the Indians, he's got an 'ugly' 5.53 ERA, a 1.70 WHIP and opponents are hitting .288 against him. Hammel, who spent the first three seasons of his career with Tampa Bay, is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA in six starts against his former team (teams are 3-3). Archer registered a season-high 11 strikeouts against Toronto on Friday but did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs in six innings. He is now win-less in his last four starts and while his numbers aren't all that bad, the Rays have now lost his last three starts, after winning his first four. Hardly inspiring confidence for tonight's game is the fact that Archer has yet to defeat Kansas City in his career, going 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in five starts (Rays are 1-4). The pick: Last night's 12-inning game could (should?) prove chaotic for each team's pitching staff, tonight. The Royals and Rays combined to use 15 pitchers last night, with all but one available reliever appearing. Neither starter much confidence heading into tonight and the bullpens just may be spent. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-10-17 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets are going through a 'soap opera' with pitcher Matt Harvey but have a chance to make it a three-game sweep of their series with the Giants this afternoon, which would move them above the .500 mark for the first time since April 19. While the Mets sit at 16-16, losses on Monday and Tuesday at Citi Field leave the Giants at 11-13, owners of MLB's worst record. The Mets won 4-3 (Monday) and 6-1 last night, as the reeling Giants have dropped five in a row. This marks San Francisco's final contest of its nine-game road trip and the team has managed only nine runs on 23 hits during its five-game skid. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (2-1 & 4.70 ERA) takes the mound for the Giants and Tommy Milone (1-0 & 6.43 ERA) gets the start for a troubled New York rotation. Cain was tagged for a career high-tying nine runs on 10 hits and six walks (which also matching a career worst) in losing 13-3 to the Reds last Friday. That was quite a drop-off, as he had allowed just three ERs over his previous four starts (23 innings with a 1.17 ERA), going 2-0 (team was 3-1). Cain is 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 career starts against the Mets (Giants are 8-7). Tommy Milone split his six appearances with Milwaukee between the rotation and bullpen to open the 2017 season but was waived after giving up four runs on six hits in a two-inning relief stint on April 29. The left-hander will make his New York Mets debut Wednesday afternoon and will be pitching for the first time in 12 days. He's only faced the Giants once in his career, back on May 29, 2013. He allowed four runs over five innings in that one but he got the win as the Oakland A's won 9-6 win at AT&T Park. The pick: Of course, Milone is a wild card but the good news for him is that the Giants are just not hitting. As for Cain, his last outing was a 'nightmare' but as noted, he was outstanding in his previous four turns. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-09-17 | Nationals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition hasn't stared well for the Nats either, as Baltimore rode three HRs to a 6-4 victory on Monday night. Baltimore is now riding a five-game winning streak and sits at 21-10, just a half-game back of the NY Yankees in the AL East (Yanks own MLB's best record at 21-9). Washington fell to 21-11 with a second straight loss, following a four-game winning streak. However, there was good news for Washington, as Bryce Harper returned to the Nationals' lineup on Monday after missing the previous three games with a groin injury and went 2-for-3 with a home run, boosting his season batting average to .385. |
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05-08-17 | Angels v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout (.355, 8 HRs & 21 RBI) is in the midst of a 17-game hitting streak but has missed the Angels' last two contests with tightness in his left hamstring. They hope to have him back on Monday as they visit the Oakland Athletics for the opener of the third series between these two American League West rivals already this season. The Angels lost 5-3 at home to the Astros on Sunday to fall a game under . 500 on the season (16-17), while the A's won on both Saturday and Sunday over the Tigers (each time in walk-off fashion) to give them a 14-17 record. The Angels are 5-2 against the Athletics this season, splitting a season-opening four game series in Oakland but then sweeping a three-game set at home from April 25-27. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.68 ERA) goes for LA and Kendall Graveman (2-2 & 3.95 ERA) for Oakland. These two will face each other for the third time this season. Graveman earned the victory and Nolasco took the loss on Opening Night at the Coliseum when the A's defeated the Angels 4-2, with Nolasco getting even on April 27 in Anaheim when he out-dueled Graveman in a 2-1 Angels victory. Nolasco is unbeaten in his last three outings, winning two straight before escaping Seattle with a no-decision on Wednesday after he surrendered four runs and eight hits over 4 1/3 innings. Nolasco is 4-3 with one shutout and a 3.34 ERA in nine career starts against the Athletics (teams are 5-4). Graveman is looking to rebound from a dismal performance at Minnesota on Wednesday (Twins won 7-4), when he was ripped for six runs on five hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings. It was his second consecutive loss since returning from the disabled list after going 2-0 while allowing a total of four runs over 18 innings in three starts prior to being injured. Graveman is 2-2 with one complete game and a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts against the Angels (team is 4-4).The pick: This is the third go-round for these pitchers in 2017, with the first two games ending with game-ending totals of six and three runs. Deja vu all over again, so make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-07-17 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves were coming off a 68-93 season in 2016 but players and fans alike were looking forward to 2017, if for no other reason than the team was opening a new home stadium, SunTrust Park. However, Atlanta is just 11-17 to open the season and after starting 4-0 in its new stadium, the Braves have dropped seven of their last eight games at home. The Cards missed the postseason in 2016 for the first time since 2010 and started slowly in 2017 at 3-9. However, they have won 12 of 17 games since, including the first two of this three-game series in Atlanta, 10-0 on Friday and 5-3 last night. St. Louis goes for its first series sweep on the road this year when the Cards cap a three-game set at SunTrust Park with Braves on Sunday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (2-1 & 3.23 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and R.A. Dickey (3-2 & 3.94 ERA) for the Braves. Wacha gave up a season-high four ERs in six innings of a no-decision against Milwaukee this past Monday but note that he's off to a solid start in 2017, lasting at least six innings while walking two batters or less in all five of his starts (has 28 Ks in 30 2/3 innings). He owns 3.12 ERA in three career games versus Atlanta but is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one start. Unlike the 25-year-old Wacha, Dickey will be making the 375th appearance and 275th start of his career. He's looking for a third straight win but although he has held opponents to a .248 average, six of the 19 hits he has allowed over the last four starts have been HRs. Dickey owns a 4.09 ERA in seven career appearances against St. Louis. That includes five starts in which he's 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA (teams are 4-1). The pick: The Cards have now won five straight in Atlanta dating back to Turner Field last season and Wacha is beginning to show signs of the pitcher we saw back in the 2013 postseason (4-1 & 2.64 ERA) and 2015's regular season (17-7). As noted, Dickey hasn't given up many hits lately (19 in his last 24 innings) but six have left the park. Expect him to clean that up here and I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rockies contended in 2016 (Colorado was only 75-87 and Arizona even worse at 69-93) but the Rockies are currently atop the NL West at 18-12, with the D'backs just a half-game back at 18-13. Arizona closed the gap to a half-game with last night's 6-3 win in Coors, led by Paul Goldschmidt's two HRs and season-high five RBI. The pitching matchup: A pair of left-handers take the mound on Saturday night, Patrick Corbin (2-3 & 2.29 ERA) for Arizona and Tyler Anderson (1-3 & 7.71 ERA) for Colorado. Corbin allowed just two hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings in a no-decision against Colorado last Sunday and is 5-2 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 career starts against them (team is 10-3). Corbin comes in on a roll, having allowed just four ERs over his last three starts (1.86 ERA), while striking out 23, against just four walks, in 19 1/3 innings. Anderson has to be happy that April is over. The team actually split his six starts last month, despite him posting a 7.71 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .303 BAA. He gave up a season-high six runs in five innings (allowed three HRs) but escaped with a no-decision against Arizona in his last start on April 29. Speaking of HRs, he's allowed nine in his 30 1/3 innings this season. Anderson has three no-decisions against Arizona but has posted a 7.80 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in those outings (team is 1-2). The pick: The over may be tempting to some but Corbin comes in pitching very well plus Anderson is not as bad as he's pitched so far. In fact, he allowed three ERs or less in 10 of his 12 home starts last season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays have played in the last two ALCS matchups but have opened the 2017 season with the worst record in MLB at 9-19. The Blue Jays are still waiting he left side of their infield, 3B Josh Donaldson and SS Troy Tulowitzki, to return from injuries, as they head to Tampa for a three-game series with the 15-15 Rays. Donaldson (calf) has been sidelined since April 13 while shortstop Tulowitzki (hamstring) has been out since April 21, but both could return early next week. The Rays beat Miami 5-1 on Thursday and have won three of their last four games, allowing just four runs in those three victories. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Rays last week in Toronto, allowing just one run in each of the victories. The pitching matchup: Francisco Liriano (2-2 & 3.97 ERA) opens the series for Toronto, opposed by Tampa's ace, Chris Archer (2-1 & 3.43 ERA). Liriano beat the Rays last Saturday in Toronto, allowing just one run on four hits over five innings. The 33-year-old vet has had control issues this season, walking 15 batters in 22 2/3 innings but has allowed only one HR. He's 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances (11 starts / teams are 5-6) versus the Rays. Archer is win-less in his last three outings (0-2 with a 4.74 ERA / team is 1-2) but in his most recent start (April 30), he allowed just one ER on four hits in a no-decison against the Blue Jays (Toronto won 3-1). He is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 career starts against the Blue Jays (Rays are 12-9). The pick: These teams have seen a lot of each other so far, with the Rays taking three of four from Toronto in an early series at Tropicana Field and the Jays winning two of three when they played at Rogers Centre last weekend. Toronto's recovered from a 1-9 start to go 8-10 its last 18 but the Jays are only 6-11 on teheroad, allowing 5.9 RPG. Meanwhile, the Rays are 10-5 at home, where they have averaged 5.20 RPG. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-04-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies lost 2-0 (13 inn.) on Sunday and then opened a three-game series in San Diego with the Padres on Tuesday with a 6-2 defeat. However, those Colorado bats woke up Wednesday night at Petco, pounding out 14 hits in an 11-3 win. Ian Desmond was the hitting star, going 3-for-5 with two HRs and three RBI. The loss ended San Diego's modest three-game winning streak and note that San Diego has now lost three of its last four home games, leaving them just 6-5 at home. The teams square off in the rubber game of this series with 17-11 Colorado sitting atop the NL West and the 12-17 Padres 5 1/2 games back of the Rockies, ahead of only the 11-18 Giants in the division. |
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05-03-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The red-hot Angels pushed across two runs in the 11th inning for a 6-4 triumph in Tuesday's opener of the three-game set at Seattle. LA has now won seven of eight, as Albert Pujols recorded three hits on Tuesday, including the tie-breaking double in the 11th inning. Mike Trout extended his hitting streak to 15 games, matching his career best. It was LA's 11th comeback win of the season and the 15-13 Angels are now 4-0 against the Mariners this season. Los Angeles is 15-13 (3 1/2 back of Houston), while Seattle falls to 11-16, tied with Texas at the bottom of the AL West, seven games back of the Astros. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.13 ERA) will take the mound for LA and Hisashi Iwakuma (0-2 & 4.15 ERA) for Seattle. Nolasco has won back-to-back decisions, including a victory over Oakland last time out in which he allowed one run and three hits in 5 2/3 innings. Nolasco settled for a no-decision against Seattle back on April 8 (LA won 5-4), when he gave up two runs and four hits over six frames, and is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career starts versus the Mariners (teams are 2-4). Iwakuma remains winless in five starts to open the 2017 season and even more troubling, he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last three outings. He had a career-best 16 wins last season but a KW ratio that was more than 7-to-1 in 2014 (154-21!), is nearly even this season (12 strikeouts, 11 walks). Iwakuma is 9-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / Seattle is 11-8) against the Angels. He gave up one run and two hits in six innings of a no-decision back on April 9, a game LA won 10-9 with a seven-run 9th! The pick: The Angels are rolling (7-1 run) and I won't stand in their way here. However, I don't much trust Nolasco, who has had ERAs of 5.38, 6.75 and 4.42 in each of the last three seasons. He kept the ball in teh park against the Athletics in his last start but the veteran had served up seven HRs over his first four starts, allowing 27 hits over 22 2/3 innings with a 4.76 ERA. The Mariners have averaged 5.10 RPG at home and have allowed 4.20. The Angels have averaged 5.40 RPG in their last five wins and that makes the Over an 8* play. |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Matt Shoemaker (1-1 & 4.73 ERA) gets the ball for Seattle and James Paxton (3-0 & 1.39 ERA) for the Mariners. Shoemaker picked up his first victory of the season Wednesday versus the Athletics (in his fifth start), allowing two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks over five innings. He has struck out 20 in 17 1/3 innings over his last three appearances and permitted two runs or fewer four times but he has managed only one quality start. Shoemaker is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 11 career stats against Seattle (team is 7-4). Paxton did not allow an earned run in his first three starts of 2017 but then allowed five at Oakland on April 20. However, he regained his dominant form Wednesday at Detroit, allowing only four hits while striking out nine in seven scoreless innings to win for the third time in his last four turns. He has posted a 39-6 KW ratio for the season. Paxton is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in seven career starts against the Angels (team is 4-3). |
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04-30-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: A series between the Cubs and Red Sox was expected to draw a lot of interest and the atmosphere at Fenway Park has been electric for the first two games. The Red Sox won 5-4 on Friday night and the Cubs bounced back with a 7-4 Saturday afternoon. Now, it's a the rubber match of this series Sunday night on ESPN. The 13-10 Cubs are looking to win their fourth straight series, while the 12-11 Red Sox are attempting to avoid their third consecutive series loss. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (2-1 & 4.50 ERA) goes for Chicago and Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1 & 3.12 ERA). Hendricks won the NL ERA title last year in his most recent start, looked much more like that pitcher than in his first three starts (11 ERs in 16 innings for a 6.19 ERA). He pitched six scoreless innings Tuesday at Pittsburgh, allowing four hits and two walks in a 1-0 victory. Hendricks never has faced the Red Sox and is 2-3 with a 3.94 ERA in nine career interleague starts. Rodriguez allowed nine hits and seven walks in his first two starts of 2017 (six ERs in 10 1/3 innings for a 5.23 ERA) and pitched out of the bullpen on April 19th. However, he was outstanding in his return to the rotation last Sunday at Baltimore, holding the Orioles to one hit over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. Actually, Rodriguez is holding opponents to a .172 average but he served up three HRs in his first two starts of the season. The pick: Rodriguez looked good in his last outing but he also allowed a career worst-tying five walks against the Orioles. In fact, Rodriguez has walked a team-worst 12 batters (17 1/3 innings) through four games (three starts) this season. That doesn't bode well vs. the dangerous Chicago lineup. Yes, Hendricks was sharp in his last outing but his first three (6.19 ERA) leave some questions still to be answered. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout and Albert Pujols each homered in LA's 6-3 Friday victory and the Angels will take a five-game winning streak into the middle contest of their three-game series against the host Texas Rangers on Saturday. Trout and Pujols are the two biggest reasons for LA's recent success. Trout has reached base safely in 24 of 25 games this season and is batting .372 with four HRs, seven RBI and 11 runs during his eight-game hitting streak. Pujols is batting .371 with a HR and 10 RBI during his 12-game hitting streak plus moved past Ken Griffey Jr. and into 14th all-time with 1,838 RBI ,one shy of Ted Williams for 13th (pretty sweet company, huh!). While the Angels are now 13-12, Texas, AL West champs in 2016, are just 10-13 and in last-place, five games back of first-place Houston. The pitching matchup: Jesse Chavez (2-3 & 4.13 ERA) will take the mound for the Angels, opposed by Texas ace Yu Darvish (2-2 & 3.03 ERA). Chavez allowed one run, four hits and four walks while striking out seven in six innings of a 2-1 victory over Toronto on Monday. He currently owns the lowest ERA among regular Los Angeles starters and has recorded two straight quality starts, including a 3-0 setback at Houston on April 17. Chavez is 2-4 with a 6.00 ERA in 17 games (four starts / 5.24 ERA, going 2-2) versus Texas after allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-3 loss on April 12. Darvish allowed two runs, five hits and one walk while striking out eight in Sunday's 5-2 victory over Kansas City. He pitched eight innings for the first time since 2014 prior to Tommy John surgery. Darvish is 8-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 14 starts against Los Angeles (Texas is 11-3), after striking out 10 over seven scoreless innings of an 8-3 road victory on April 13. The pick: Angels' starting pitchers have surrendered fewer than three runs in 13 of their last 14 games and as noted, currently owns the lowest ERA among regular Los Angeles starter. It's hard to ignore Darvish's excellent career numbers vs. LA (see above) plus both Darvish and Chavez are coming off strong starts heading into this second of a three-game series at Globe Life Park. Make the Under a 10* play |
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04-28-17 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-12 Texas Rangers avoided a series sweep and snapped a two-game skid with a 14-3 win over Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night. They now welcome the LA Angels to Globe Life Park for a three-game weekend series. The Angels are coming off a 2-1 home win Thursday night over the Oakland A's, giving them a four straight wins and five of seven, to reach 12-12 on the season. The pitching matchup: Tyler Skaggs (1-1 & 4.44 ERA) gets the nod in the opener for LA, opposed by the Rangers' Nick Martinez (0-0 & 1.29 ERA). Skaggs has pitched well in his last two starts, blanking Kansas City on four hits over seven innings in a no-decision on April 16 and following up by allowing just two runs and seven hits in seven frames of a win over Toronto. That's quite an improvement over his first two 2017 starts, when he allowed five ERs in each outing (8.71 ERA). He escaped with a no-decision against Texas earlier this month, despite allowing five runs on eight hits in five innings. That outing leaves him 2-1 with a 6.20 ERA in five career starts versus the Rangers (Angels are 3-2). Martinez will be making just his second start of 2017, in place of the injured A.J. Griffin (ankle). He defeated Kansas City 2-1 on April 22nd, allowing just one run on four hits over seven innings for his 14th career victory. Martinez is 2-3 with a 2.51 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts / Rangers are 2-4 in those starts with a 2.92 ERA) against the Angels. The pick: Actually, both teams come in playing fairly well, as both enter the series having won five of seven. Skaggs has had two straight good outings, in keeping with an LA starting staff which has now not allowed more than two earned runs in 12 of its last 13 games, compiling a 2.10 ERA in that span. Martinez looked sharp in his 2017 debut (see above), so the Under is a 10* play. |
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04-27-17 | Toronto Blue Jays - Game #2 v. St. Louis Cardinals - Game #2 OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays will try to complete a three-game IL series, after getting rained out Wednesday, by playing a doubleheader on Thursday. The Jays won 6-5 (11 innings) on Tuesday but last night's game was rained out. Wednesday's scheduled starters (Latos and Martinez) will go in Game 1 with the second game following. Toronto entered the series ranked 29th in the majors in scoring but eked out a 6-5 victory in 11 innings Tuesday night. The win gets Toronto to 6-14, after opening 1-9. The Cards are just 9-11 and already are "looking up" at their hated rivals, the Chicago Cubs. The pitching matchup: Casey Lawrence (0-2 & 7.56 ERA) will start Game 2 for Toronto and Adam Wainwright (1-3 & 6.27 ERA) takes the hill for St. Louis. Lawrence gave up a grand slam to Andrelton Simmons in the third inning of his first career start this past Saturday against the LA Angels, taking a 5-4 loss. He allowed five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings before exiting after 97 pitches. Lawrence walked just three batters on Saturday after issuing five free passes in two combined innings of relief against Tampa Bay on April 8-9. Wainwright hit a two-run HR in Friday's 6-3 win over Milwaukee to help him snap a three-game losing skid. He also pitched well in the victory, striking out a season-high nine in five innings to subdue the Brewers. That said, Wainwright has not looked like the Wainwright of old, with that 6.27 ERA, a 1.93 WGHIP plus opponents BAA of .366! |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins opened this three-game series at Texas having lost six of their previous seven games but have beaten the Rangers 3-2 (Mon.) and 8-1 (Tue.). These back-to-back losses for Texas has but a sudden halt to the four-game winning streak the team had when it opened the new week. Texas now looks to avoid getting swept in Arlington by the Twins for the first time in 41 years on Wednesday night! However, more trouble may be looming for the Rangers, as the Twins have now won seven of the last eight meetings between the teams dating to last season. The pitching matchup: A pair of left-handers take the mound tonight at Globe Life Park, Hector Santiago (2-1 & 2.19 ERA) for Minnesota and Cole Hamels (1-0 & 2.77 ERA). Santiago continued his string of strong outings this season on Friday, recording his third straight quality start, earning a 6-3 win over Detroit. He has a 17-4 KW ratio through four starts, with an 0.97 WHIP and ,217 BAA. He's made 17 starts against the Rangers in his career, going 7-4 with a 4.15 ERA (teams are 10-7). Cole Hamels is off his best performance this season on Friday, allowing one run on three hits in eight innings of a 6-2 win over Kansas City. Not that Hamels had pitched all that poorly in his first three, but Texas had lost each of those three starts. That's quite a change from last season, when the Rangers were 24-8 in Hamels' 32 starts (plus-$1469, which ranked 4th-best among all starters). He's faced the Twins just five times in his career without much success, going 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA (teams are 2-3). The pick: Santiago is off to a great start for the Twins in 2017 and Hamels finally looked like his "old self" in his last outing. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-25-17 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers won 11-7 last night in the series opener against Reds, as Eric Thames hit two HRs. Thames now has 10 HRs, matching the team record for April, and the Brewers still have five games left this month. Seven of his HRs have come against Cincinnati, which has lost four of five meetings with Milwaukee. The Reds fell to 10-10 with the loss and the Brewers pulled within one game of .500 with the win (10-11). The pitching matchup: Scott Feldman (1-1 & 2.38 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds on Tuesday, opposed by the Brewers' Zach Davies (1-2 & 8.24 ERA). Feldman pitched mostly but this marks his fifth start of 2017 and while the team is just 1-3 in his four starts, he's pitched reasonably well (1.19 WHIP along with that 2.38 ERA). He has made five career starts versus the Brewers, going 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA (teams are 2-3). Davies lost his first three starts a year ago but finished 11-7 with a 3.97 ERA. However, he's off to another slow (or should I say, brutal?) start here in 2017. He's allowed 18 ERs over 19 2/3 innings through his first four starts, giving him not only an awful 8.24 ERA but a 1.98 WHIP, with opponents batting .345 against him. He's 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in six career starts vs. the Reds (team is 2-4). The pick: It was an 11-7 slug-fest on Monday (teams combined for 18 hits and there were five errors in the game, as well) but as noted, Feldman has acquitted himself well in this year's starting rotation. As for Davies, there is no way to go but up and as also noted earlier, he recovered from last year's poor start to pitch well, as the team was 15-9 over his final 24 starts, after Milwaukee lost his first four. The Under is an 8* play. |
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04-24-17 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 4-8 | Push | 0 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals beat the Mets 6-3 last night art Citi Field on ESPN, giving them a sweep of that three-game series. The sweep extended the team's winning streak to seven straight. Washington began its winning streak with a home victory over Philadelphia before registering three-game sweeps on the road against Atlanta and the New York Mets. At 13-6 and in first-place in the NL East, the Nats now head to Colorado on Monday for a four-game series in Coors Field against the Rockies, who are also a first-place team, leading the NL West at 13-5. The Rockies have won six of their last seven contests and are coming off their first three-game home sweep of San Francisco since May 2002. Colorado outscored the Giants 20-3 over the final two contests and improved to 6-3 at Coors Field to open the 2017 season. The pitching matchup: Jacob Turner (1-2, 6.57 ERA in 2016) will make his 2017 debut for Washington and will be opposed by Colorado's Tyler Anderson (1-3 & 7.32 ERA) who is not exactly off to a great start this season. Turner was drafted ninth overall by Detroit in 2009 but has not lived up expectations. He's 12-27 with a 5.09 ERA in the majors with four different teams, spending the 2016 season with the White Sox. He signed a minor-league contract during the offseason with Washington and is being called up from Triple-A Syracuse to make his Washington debut (he owns a 2.61 ERA in three starts for Syracuse). Anderson has had all sorts of early-season struggles, as he has surrendered four or more runs in each of his first four starts, losing the last three. He has yet to complete six innings and lasted five on Wednesday, when he yielded four runs (two ERs) on six hits in a setback against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The pick: At first blush, this may look like an over with two shaky starters. After all, Washington is MLB's second-highest scoring team at 5.17 RPG (is also averaging 5.11 RPG on the road) and as always, Colorado puts runs on the board at home, averaging 4.89 RPG in its nine home games so far. However, a closer look reveals that the Rockies had averaged a modest 3.00 RPG in their first six home games, prior to scoring 26 runs in sweeping the Giants at Coors this past weekend. As for Colorado's Anderson, he's found Coors to be a friendly park, posting a 3.36 ERA in 13 home starts during his brief career. Let's add that the Colorado bullpen which finished the 2016 season with a MLB-high ERA of 5.13, opens the week with the NL's lowest ERA, at 2.76. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-23-17 | Yankees v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees exploded for 11 runs in the final four innings to earn an 11-5 win on Saturday at Pittsburgh. The Pirates won 6-3 on Friday night, so the teams get set for the rubber match of this three-game IL series on Sunday afternoon from PNC Park. The Yankees are off to a solid 11-6 start, while the Pirates have yet to get going, sitting at 7-10. The pitching matchup: Jordan Montgomery (1-0 & 4.22 ERA) makes his first career start against the Pirates while Ivan Nova (1-2 & 2.25 ERA), the ex-Yankee, will face his former team for the first time. Montgomery picked up his first career win in his second career start on Monday, when he held the Chicago White Sox to three runs and seven hits in six innings. Montgomery struck out seven over 4 2/3 innings in his debut on April 12 but had just four last Monday, while inducing eight groundouts on Monday. Nova struggled for the Yankees in 2015 and the first half of 2016 before coming over to Pittsburgh. He had made 118 starts with the Yankees but was having trouble sticking in the rotation with a 5.07 ERA at the time of the trade. However, with the Pirates, he posted a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts, going 5-2 (team won seven of his first eight starts, before losing his last three). He gave up fewer home runs, fewer walks and in general seemed to much more closely resemble the pitcher he had been early in his career, when he won 16 games for the Yankees in 2011. The pick: Montgomery will face a Pittsburgh lineup that has totaled 11 runs in the first two games of the series but that's after managing just three in the previous three games. I wouldn't be surprised if Nova was sharp against his ex-teammates and will make the Under |
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04-18-17 | Giants v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants are off to a slow start to the 2017 season (just 5-9), as they visit Kansas City to take on the 6-6 Royals in this two-game IL series. However, the Giants are getting some good news, as four-time All-Star catcher Buster Posey is expected to be activated from the DL on Tuesday. Posey was beaned by a fastball in a game against Arizona on April 10 and will likely serve as the team's DH as he eases his way back into action. "It gives him three more extra days (counting Thursday's off day)," manager Bruce Bochy told The San Jose Mercury News of Posey (team-leading .333 batting average). Kansas City has been streaky in the early going of 2017, and comes in on a four-game winning streak, following a three-game slide, which was the second such skid of the season for the Royals. This marks the Giants' first return to Kansas City since the 2014 World Series. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (1-0 & 4.82 ERA) gets the nod tonight for San Francisco and Kansas City hands the ball to Jason Hammel (0-1 & 6.52 ERA). Cain had a shaky 2017 debut (allows six hits and four ERs over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres) but earned a 6-2 win against Arizona on Wednesday. He allowed just one run on five hits in as many innings. The Giants are hoping Cain can be the team's fifth-starter, coming off a two-year span in which his ERA is 5.77 and WHIP is 1.52. Cain is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA in his lone start against the Royals. It's early but Jason Hammel has stumbled out of the box after signing a two-year, $16 million deal in offseason, a move designed to shore up KC's starting rotation after the death of Yordano Ventura. Hammel's allowed 13 hits and seven ERs over 9 2/3 innings, with a 6.52 ERA, 1.97 WHIP and .333 opponents BA! However, despite going winless in 11 career appearances against San Francisco (10 starts / teams are 4-6), he has pitched reasonably well against them with a 3.17 ERA. The pick: KC's starting pitchers have a 0.63 ERA, allowing two runs and 13 hits over 28 2/3 innings during the team's four-game winning streak and now it's Hammel's turn to start "pulling his own weight." He faces a San Francisco lineup which has been very mediocre, batting .237 (17th). As for that KC lineup, it ranks 29th in BA (.210) and runs scored (3.17 per). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-15-17 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox opened the 2017 season with consecutive wins over the Prates, before the third game of that series was rained out. However, after last night's 10-5 home loss to the Rays, Boston is just 5-5 to start the season. Tampa Bay's win snapped a three-game slide and the Rays get set for the second of this three-game series at 6-5. The pitching matchup: Jake Odorizzi (1-1 & 4.50 ERA) will take the hill for Tampa Bay and Chris Sale (0-1 & 1.23 ERA), who is still looking for his first win with Boston, takes the mound for the Red Sox. Odorizzi limited the Toronto Blue Jays to two runs on two hits in six innings to pick up his first win of 2017 last Sunday. However, it's not good news that seven of the nine hits he has allowed so far in 2017 have gone for extra bases, including three HR. Odorizzi has faced Boston 13 times, going 3-3 with a 4.13 ERA (teams are 8-5). Sale has yielded eight hits in 14 2/3 innings while recording 17 strikeouts through the first two starts, along with a 1.23 ERA and 0.68 WHIP (.157 BAA). However, the Red Sox didn't score until the 12th inning in his team debut and were limited to just one run in his second appearance last Monday at Detroit. Sale was 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA -- 16 strikeouts and no walks -- in two starts against the Rays for the White Sox last season, including a two-hit shutout April 15. Lifetime, he is 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 55 innings against Tampa Bay. The pick: Boston is just not giving Sale any support and I wouldn't want to bet on it happening here, even though Odorizzi is hardly a "shut-down" pitcher. Meanwhile, Sale is an impressive 48-19 with a 2.70 ERA in his career before the All-Star break and owns a 2.76 mark all-time at Fenway. The Under is a 10* play. |
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04-14-17 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending AL Champs have lost five of their last six outings. The Indians three-game sweep of the Rangers in the season's first week seems like a long time ago, as the Indians get set to host the 6-3 Detroit Tigers in a three-game series which opens tonight. The Indians gave up five runs in the first inning of Thursday's 10-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox and have now allowed at least five runs in five of their first nine contests. The Tigers lost 11-5 in Thursday's series finale against Minnesota but had won five of their previous six games. “I know it’s a sour note to end the homestand on a loss,” Detroit manager Brad Ausmus told reporters, “but if we’re going to win series, we’ll be in great shape. I’ll take series wins the rest of the way. If that happens, we’ll be in the playoffs.” The Tigers are playing better than the Indians at the moment but are well aware that they lost 14 of 18 games against the Indians last season, getting outscored 106-71. The pitching matchup: Lefty Daniel Norris (0-0 & 4.26 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit, up against Cleveland righty Trevor Bauer (0-1 & 6.35 ERA). Norris failed to earn a decision in his season debut, allowing three runs on seven hits and three walks with a pair of strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings in a 7-5 loss to Boston last Sunday. Norris made 14 appearances (13 stgarst) for the Tigers in 2016, going 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA (team was 8-5 in hsi 13 starts). Norris has made three career starts against Cleveland, going 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA (teams are 2-1). Bauer pitched four scoreless innings in his first start of the season against Arizona last Saturday, but left the game after 5 2/3 innings having given up four runs on seven hits and three walks to take the 11-2 loss. He won a career-high 12 games last season (12-8 & 4.26 ERA) and did strike out seven without allowing a walk against the D'backs. He's made nine career starts against Detroit, going 3-3 with a 6.99 ERA (Indians are 3-6). The pick: Norris has had success in limited action against the Indians but also note that he finished last season well, going 3-0 over his final seven starts (Tigers were 6-1). He also pitched well on the road in 2016, going 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA in six starts (team was 4-2). When healthy, Bauer is a solid pitcher and I look for good efforts from both of these starting pitchers. The Under is an 8* play. |
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04-11-17 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians opened the season with an impressive three-game sweep at Texas, one which included two late-inning comebacks. However, they then moved on to Arizona and the pitching staff was ripped for 21 runs, as the Indians lost all three games. Cleveland will play in front of its fans late this afternoon for the first time since Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, hoping for a better result. The Indians host the rival Chicago White Sox on Tuesday in the first of a three-game series. Chicago is batting only .238 as a team and fought through some tough weather conditions against Detroit (rained out twice at home vs. the Tigers), to open 2-3 despite playing all games so far at home. The pitching matchup:James Shields (1-0 & 1.69 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Carlos Carrasco (1-0 & 3.18 ERA) for Cleveland, with both pitchers coming off wins in their 2017 debuts. Shields split last season between San Diego and Chicago, going 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA. The two teams were 9-24 in his 33 starts and his moneyline mark of minus-$1403 was better than only Ervin Santana (minus-$1450) and Chris Archer (minus-$1553). So much for the moniker, "Big Game James!" His WHIP was 1.60 and he struck out 81 fewer hitters than the previous season in the same number of starts (33). However, he allowed just one run and two hits over 5 1/3 innings to beat Detroit 11-2 last Thursday. Shields is 4-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 18 career starts against Cleveland (teams are 9-9). Carrasco missed the 2016 postseason when he was hit by a line drive that broke his right hand on Sept. 17 and while he was bothered by elbow swelling in spring training. He's been a solid pitcher for the Indians these last two seasons with 55 starts (Cleveland is 33-22) and 366 strikeouts in 330 innings. Carrasco shook off those elbow issues in the spring to win his season debut, allowing two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and one walk over 5 2/3 innings last Tuesday in Texas (Indians won 4-3). He needs one victory to even his career record at 46-46 and hopes to improve at home after allowing 13 HRs and posting a 4.29 ERA at Progressive Field in 2016. However, Carrasco went 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA in three starts against the White Sox last year and is 3-9 with a 5.73 ERA in 16 career starts against Chicago (teams are 5-110. The pick: For all of Shields' woes last year, let's note that he had won double-digit games every season since 2007 before last year's implosion. In fact, entering ther 2017 season, Shields led all major-league pitchers with 330 starts and 2,169 innings pitched since 2007. He was also fourth in that span with 208 quality starts and sixth with 1,873 strikeouts. He pitched well in his 2017 debut and expect another solid outing here. As for Carrasco, he will be on the mound at Progressive Field for the first time since Sep. 17 of last year, which became the last start of his season. His lifetime mark against Chicago is poor but the White Sox aren't hitting so far in 2017, batting only .238 to open the season. This is Chicago's first road game. The Under is an 8* play. |
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04-09-17 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies scored 12 first-inning runs in Saturday's home contest against the Nationals and cruised to a 17-3 victory. Philadelphia hosts Washington in the rubber game of this series (Nats won 7-6 Friday night), looking to even their record at 3-3 (a Nats loss and 3-2 Washington would fall to .500). The pitching matchup: Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 2.57 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Jeremy Hellickson (1-0, 1.80 ERA) does so for Philadelphia. Strasburg has said his new mindset in now focused on inducing groundballs instead of always going for the strikeout. He held Miami to two runs over seven innings in Monday's 4-2 win (had a modest three Ks) and has enjoyed success against Philadelphia in his career, going 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 17 starts (Nats are 13-4). Hellickson limited Cincinnati to one run in five innings on Monday, generating eight groundouts compared to one strikeout. However, in 2016, his first season with the Phillies, Hellickson made four starts against the Nationals and went 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA. He's 1-3 with a 5.67 ERA in six career starts against the Nats (teams are just 1-5). The pick: It was the Phillie bats which exploded on Saturday but with Hellickson's poor career numbers vs. the Nats, expect it to be Washington's turn to 'light up' the scoreboard on Sunday. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-08-17 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Break up the Twins! Minnesota won 3-1 last night in Chicago and is off to a 4-0 start to the 2017 season. The Twins were expected by most to be among the American League's worst teams but so far, so good. The White Sox fought the Tigers and bad weather in Detroit to open the season (played two of the three-game series going 1-1) and after last night's loss, come into this game 1-2.The pitching matchup: Adalberto Mejia (0-0 & 7.71 ERA in 2016) will face off against Miguel Gonzalez (5-8 & 3.73 ERA in 2016). Mejia will be making his second career appearance and first career start, while Gonzalez makes his 2017 season debut. Mejia gave up two runs in 2 1/3 innings in a relief appearance against Kansas City last summer after coming over in a trade from San Francisco. However, he sported a 1.88 ERA in 14 innings this spring to earn a temporary spot in the rotation. Mejia, whose recent history includes weight issues and a PED suspension, likely will end up in the bullpen for the Twins once the team is fully healthy. Gonzalez, a former Oriole, posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career (2.71-to-1) last season while making 23 starts and one relief appearance for the White Sox. He has four career starts against Minnesota, going 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA (teams are 2-2).
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04-07-17 | Red Sox v. Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers were rained out twice this week at Chicago but the teams did manage to play two of the three games of the series (Tigers won 6-3 Tuesday but lost 11-2 on Thursday). The Red Sox opened their season with 5-3 and 3-0 (12 inn.) wins over the Pirates in Fenway but then got rained out yesterday, when the were trying to complete a three-game sweep. The postponement prompted a rotation reset. Eduardo Rodriguez, who was scheduled to start against the Pirates, will go Saturday in Detroit, keeping knuckleballer Steven Wright in line to make his season debut Friday. Boston also placed both shortstop Xander Bogaerts and reliever Matt Barnes on the bereavement list and put reliever Robbie Ross Jr. on the disabled list with a flu bug that kept right fielder Mookie Betts out of the lineup in Wednesday's 3-0 win over Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup: Steven Wright (13-6 & 3.33 ERA in 2016) squares off against vs. Michael Fulmer (11-7 & 3.06 ERA). The Red Sox went 15-9 (plus-$339) in Wright's 24 starts last year. Wright is 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA in two starts against Detroit (team is 0-2). His worst start of the year came at home against Detroit on July 26, when he gave up eight runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings.Fulmer won the AL's rookie-of-the-year in 2016, as the Tigers were 19-7 in his 26 starts and his plus-$1292 moneyline mark ranked 6th-best among all MLB starters. He allowed three runs in 7 2/3 innings at Boston on July 27 before tying season highs by giving up six runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings in a rematch at Comerica Park nearly a month later (0-1, 6.07 ERA and team was 1-1). The pick: Both of these guys have some ugly numbers (Wright vs. Detroit and Fulmer vs. Boston) but both are small sample sizes. Overall, Wright boasted a sparkling 2.09 ERA away from home in 2016 and allowed just one run in 13 1/3 innings during Grapefruit League play. Fulmer started slow start in 2016 (6.52 ERA through the first four) but over his his last 22, had a 2.58 ERA! The Under is an 8* play. |
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04-06-17 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers and White Sox were scheduled to open the 2017 season with a three-game series in Chicago. However, the teams have been rained out on Monday and Wednesday, sandwiched around a 6-3 win by Detroit in Tuesday's contest. Thursday's conditions may be only marginally better than yesterday but the teams will try to get in one more in their scheduled three-game season-opening series.
The pitching matchup: The Tigers will send lefty Matthew Boyd (6-5 & 4.53 ERA in 2016) to the hill up against Chicago's James Shields. Shields split last season between San Diego and Chicago, going 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA. The two teams were 9-24 in his 33 starts and his moneyline mark of minus-$1403 was better than only Ervin Santana (minus-$1450) and Chris Archer (minus-$1553). So much for the moniker, "Big Game James!" He's been forced to wait two extra days for his initial shot at redemption. The veteran right-hander says that he has been able to "work out a few kinks" in the bullpen earlier this month, as he expects (hopes?) to have a better season in 2017. Could it get any worse? Detroit originally planned to start Jordan Zimmermann on Wednesday but instead will give the ball to Matthew Boyd, who notched a 2.10 ERA in 25 2/3 spring innings. “This spring I’ve grown as a pitcher,” said Boyd and he's hoping for better results against the White Sox than in previous starts (Boyd is 0-1 with a 5.04 ERA in four starts, as his teams are 1-3). |
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04-03-17 | Angels v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oakland A's host the LA Angels on Monday, as the two AL West foes open the season with a four-game series. The A's made three consecutive playoff appearances (2012-14) but have lost 94 and 93 games each of the last two years, giving them back-to-back last-place finishes in the division. The Angels won the division in 2014 (98 wins was a MLB-high!) but were just 74-88 last year, missing out on the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. That was preceded by making the postseason in six of eight seasons, beginning back in 2002 when the team won the World Series. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2016: 8-14, 4.42 ERA in 2016 with Minnesota and LA) will face Oakland's Kendall Graveman, who is coming off a 10-11 (4.11 ERA) season. Nolasco will be making the fourth Opening Day start of his career, in his first full season with the Angels. He went 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA and one shutout in 11 starts after being acquired from Minnesota but went 3-0 while allowing just one unearned run over his last three outings of 2016, including an eight-inning effort against Oakland. Nolasco is 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA and a shutout in seven career starts versus the Athletics (teams are 4-3). Graveman gets the nod for his first career start on Opening Day, after working a team-high 186 innings last season. He was winless in his final six starts of 2016 (0-3 with the team going 1-5) but allowed three runs or fewer four times in that span. Graveman has pitched well in six career starts against the Angels, posting a 1-1 record and 3.38 ERA with one complete game (team is 3-3). The pick: When one thinks "Opening Day starters," the names of Nolasco and Graveman don't readily come to mind. However, both pitched well down the stretch last season and I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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11-02-16 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs staved off elimination in Game 5 with a 3-2 win and then sent this series to a deciding Game 7 with a 9-3 win in Game 6, last night. The Chicago bats had been quiet all series (10 runs scored in the first five games) but Chicago scored three times in the top of the first, aided by a badly misplayed fly ball to right-center, which turned into a two-run double for Addison Russell. Russell then hit a grand slam in the fourth to break it open. These two long suffering franchises are now, fittingly, headed for a Game 7. Surprisingly, home teams are just 18-19 all-time in World Series game 7s and if the Cubs win, they end a 108-year drought, while if the Indians win, they end a 68-year drought. How great is this? The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.31 ERA), the MLB leader in ERA this regular season (2.13) takes the mound for Chicago and Corey Kluber (4-1, 0.89 ERA), the most dominant starter of the 2016 postseason will get the ball for Cleveland. "This is the ultimate dream," Hendricks said. "You dream of getting to the World Series, winning the World Series. When you're out in your backyard as a kid, playing Little League at the field with your friends, this is the moment you dream about, Game 7, 3-2, two outs, something like that, bottom of the ninth. But it's always Game 7 of the World Series." Hendricks won 16 regular-season games and took a no-decision in Game 3 of the World Series when he allowed six hits and two walks in 4 1/3 scoreless innings. Chicago manager Joe Maddon wants to ride his starter in the deciding game but explained to his entire pitching staff that all hands will be on deck. Jon Lester and John Lackey are definitely available in relief. However, after using closer Aroldis Chapman for eight outs in Game 5 and going to him in the seventh inning again in Game 6, Maddon might need to be creative to finish the seventh game. For the Indians, Kluber is looking to cap one of the best-ever postseason pitching performances leading the Indians to a win in Game 7. Kluber is 4-1 with an 0.89 ERA this postseason, including 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 15-1 KW ratio in the World Series. The pick: Hendricks may be young but he’s one helluva pitcher and the Cleveland lineup has struggled all postseason, entering this game batting .217 as a team while averaging just 3.36 RPG. Meanwhile, Kluber has been impersonating Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax this Worlds Series plus is backed by the one-two relief duo of Miller (17.0 IP / 0.53 ERA / 0.71 WHIP / 29-4 KW ratio) and Allen (1.2 IP / 0.00 ERA / 1.03 WHIP / 22-4 KW ratio), who are both fresh. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-30-16 | Indians v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs bats went silent in last year’s NLCS against the Mets, as Chicago got swept 4-0. However, it was supposed to be different here in 2016, as the Cubs were MLB’s best team in the regular season and were appearing in their first World Series since 1945, looking to win their first title since 2008. That hasn’t been the case though, as the Cubs got shut out twice in the first three games of this series and then last night lost 7-2, as the Indians took a commanding 3-1 lead in the 2016 World Series. The Cubs are batting .204 as team and have scored a total of just two runs in their three losses. Cleveland pitching has been phenomenal all postseason (1.68 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 120-31 KW ratio / .206 BAA) and it’s continued here vs. the Cubs. The Indians haven’t needed to score much (had scored a modest 35 runs through their first 11 postseason games) but last night scored a postseason single-game high of seven runs, led by a solo HR from Santana (which tied the game in the second) and then a three-run HR in the 7th by Kipnis, sealed the deal. The pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (0-1, 5.00 ERA) takes the ball for the Indians, up against Chicago’s (2-1, 1.69). Bauer lasted just 3 2/3 innings while allowing two runs and six hits in a Game 2 loss (Cleveland’s only one of the Series so far) and has been the lone weak spot of Cleveland's starting rotation. In his three starts (one in which he left in the first inning because of a bleeding finger), he’s lasted just nine innings, allowing 12 hits (two HRs), four walks and five ERs for a 5.00 ERA. Kluber (5), Tomlin (3) and Merritt (1) have started nine games, pitching 50 innings while allowing 33 hits and six ERs for a 1.08 ERA. Lester has a 1.69 ERA in the 2016 playoffs with 21 strikeouts and five walks plus his postseason resume includes 20 games (18 starts) with a 2.60 ERA. Lester might (should?) win the NL’s Cy Young award this year and is exactly the pitcher the Cubs want on the mound tonight, in this win-or-go-home game. Clearly, Bauer is Cleveland's weakest starter right now but can we expect these Chicago bats to break out, as the pressure of “ending the curse” seems to have been too much for the talented but very young team? Will the Cubs win and send this series back to Cleveland? Maybe, but I’d rather make an 8* play on the Under. |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians won Game 1 behind the outstanding pitching of Kluber, Miller and Allen, while a lineup which has struggled for most of this year’s postseason, came through with six runs on 10 hits. However, Arrieta took a no-hitter into the 6th-inning of Game 2 for the Cubs and Chicago’s bats came alive. After getting shut out while being held to four hits and striking out 15 times as a team in Game 1, the Cubs had nine hits and the five runs were more than enough to even the series, as Cleveland was held to four hits and one run in Game 2. With the series tied at one-all, it moves to Wrigley Field for the next three games. The pitching matchup: Josh Tomlin (2-0, 2.53 ERA) will get the ball for the Indians and Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.65 ERA) for the Cubs. Kluber has lived up to his role as ace of the staff (0.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 29-7 KW ratio in four starts), butTomlin has delivered exactly what Cleveland had hoped for, allowing a total of just three ERs in his two postseason starts, giving them 10 2/3 solid innings (2.53 ERA) before handing things off to the team's dominant bullpen. Tomlin was 13-9 in the regular season, as the Indians went 19-10 in his starts, with his plus-$864 moneyline mark ranking 15th among all MLB starters. He now looks to make it three-for-three in the postseason, after beating Boston and Toronto. He has never faced the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks led all MLB starters with a 2.13 ERA, going 16-8 overall and putting himself in Cy Young Award contention, along with teammate Jon Lester and Washington’s Max Scherzer. He was struck by a line drive on his right forearm in the fourth inning of an NLDS Game 2 and was forced to leave leading 4-2 (Cubs won 5-2). He was outdueled 1-0 by Clayton Kershaw in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Dodgers but then came back to win Game 6 of that series, as the Cubs clinched it with a 5-0 win (this time, outpitching Kershaw). The pick: Hendricks was 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA in 15 home regular season games this season (including 14 starts) and now owns a 1.65 ERA in three playoff starts, all at Wrigley. No reason to think he won’t continue his excellent pitching against a Cleveland lineup which has scored a total of only 34 runs in 10 postseason games in 2016, while batting only .210. Meanwhile, Tomlin’s delivered for the Indians in his two previous starts and this potent Chicago lineup hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball this postseason, batting a combined .223. Neither Miller nor Allen pitched in Game 2, so with two days off, can be expected to provide the Indians with as much as four innings of work. Remember, the two have pitched a combined 22 1/3 innings this postseason without allowing a single run (39-7 KW ratio). The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-16-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: With Arrieta and Bumgarner taking the mound last night, a 6-5 final wasn’t expected but then again, it did take 13 innings. The score was 3-3 Chicago (Arrieta had hit a three-run HR off Bumgarner), before the Giants rallied for three runs in the 8th, followed by Bryant’s two-run HR in the 9th that sent the game into extra innings. The bullpens were busy last night with Chicago using six relievers and San Francesco using five. The victory by the Giants was the team's 10th consecutive win when facing elimination, an amazing run. The pitching matchup: John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA) starts for the Cubs and Matt Moore (13-12, 4.08 ERA) for the Giants. The Cubs mark the fourth team that Lackey has pitched for in the postseason. He’s won WS-clinching games for the 2002 Angels (as a rookie) and again for the 2013 Red Sox. He’s made 23 career postseason appearances (20 starts), going 8-5 with a 2.54 ERA. Lackey has faced the Giants more often in the playoffs (four times) than the regular season (three), going 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA against the Giants in those opportunities (includes six starts with his team going 3-3). Moore was acquired at the trade deadline from the Tampa Bay Rays and has never faced the Cubs. He does have postseason experience, having gone 1-1 (4.41 ERA) in four games, including two starts, for the Rays. The pick: Lackey’s a “gamer” and a veteran of situations like this, as he makes his 21st postseason start, the most among active pitchers. He pitched well down the stretch going 2-1 over his last five (Cubs were 4-1), including winning his last two with a 2.25 ERA. Moore was 4-1 in his last five starts, which including a horrific three-out effort in LA in which he allowed six ERs. However, in his four wins, he posted a 1.95 ERA (32 Ks in 27 2/3 innings), including the Giants’ wild card-clinching 7-1 win over those same Dodgers on the final day of the regular season. Classic pitchers duel anticipated. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-10-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington/LA Dodgers matchup is the only one of the four LDS to be tied one-all, after Sunday’s 5-2 Washington win. The Nats rode Jose Lobton's three-run HR and Daniel Murphy’s two RBI to the victory. Los Angeles stranded 12 baserunners in Sunday’s loss (went 1-of-9 with RISP) and needs others to step up outside of Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Seager has homered in each contest of the series and Turner is 4-for-6 with a HR, extending his playoff hitting streak to seven games. The series now switches to LA, without a day off because of Saturday’s rain out. The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (11-11, 4.57 ERA) gets the start for Washington and Kenta Maeda (16-11, 3.48 ERA) for LA. Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts (Nats are 3-2) against the Dodgers with current players on the Dodgers' postseason roster combined for a .163 average (23-for-141) against him. Maeda made 32 starts in his first season in the majors and overall, performed well. Maeda will be facing Washington for the first time and went 7-5 with a 3.22 ERA in 15 home starts (Dodgers were 9-6). The pick: The Dodgers finished the regular season 53-28 at home, the second-best mark in the NL. That includes sweeping a three-game series with the Nats in LA from June 20-22. However, rather than choosing a side, I look for a game which will easily surpass this posted over/under number. Gonzalez struggled in five September, posting a 7.43 ERA while completing more than five innings just once. As for Maeda, he’s lasted seven innings in just TWO of his 32 starts in 2016 (the last came way back on July 10). After posting a 2.95 ERA before the All Star break, his post-break ERA was 4.25, as he allowed 12 hits, three walks and eight ERs over his final two starts (over just 6 2/3 innings for a 10.80 ERA). The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays won their two regular-season games in October, after struggling to an 11-16 record in September. Doing the math, the Blue Jays averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs RPG in their 29 September-October games. The Blue Jays then went to extra-innings tied 2-all with the Orioles min Tuesday’s wild card game, before winning 5-2 on a three-run HR in the 11th. So, there was little to expect the kind of offensive surge seen late Thursday afternoon in Game 1 of Toronto’s ALDS matchup with the Rangers. The Blue Jays jumped all over Texas ace Cole Hamels, who gave up six hits and seven runs (six earned ) in just 3 1/3 innings. When all the dust had settled, it was a 10-1 Toronto victory, as the Jays pounded out 13 hits, including two HRs and Tulowitzki’s three-run triple. Toronto starter Marco Estrada did his part as well, allowing one run and four hits in 8 1/2 innings. The loss means that Texas is now a hard-to-believe 1-10 all-time at home in ALDS matchups. That’s truly a head-scratcher, as most will remember that the Rangers advanced to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011. The pitching matchup: J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA) takes the hill for Toronto and Yu Darvish (7-5, 3.41 ERA) for Texas. Happ is coming off the best season of his career (previous best was him going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA for the Phillies in 2009), finishing as one of MLB's three 20-game winners. He also posted a career best in strikeouts (163). Happ owns a 4.82 ERA in eight career postseason games, including one start at Colorado on October 11, 2009 in which he yielded three runs and five hits over three innings while with Philadelphia. Yu Darvish missed the entire 2015 season while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he was a spectator last year when the Texas Rangers lost to the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS. However, is fully healthy now, as he hopes to help the Rangers win their first-ever World Series. Darvish is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Blue Jays but did not face them this year. The pick: Going back to opening of this report, let me remind all that the Blue Jays averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs RPG in their 29 September-October games, before winning the wild card game 5-2 (11 innings) and then Game 1 of this ALDS matchup, 10-1. Darvish finished his injury-shortened 2016 season strong, allowing fewer than two runs in three of his final four outings, including allowing just one ER in 13 innings over his final two starts. Happ, like Darvish, finished strong down the stretch, posting a 2.35 ERA over his final five regular season starts, going 3-0 (team was 4-1). The Under is an 8* play. |