The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety.  The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late.  The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble.  The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers.  Take this game to go under! 9*!

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.

It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander.  Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September.   Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.

Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen,  as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games.  The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.

The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching.  4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under.  The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue.  Take the under again today.

The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them.  They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment,  climbing to 7th in the league in the last week.  Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late.  All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning,  The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.

The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled.  Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each.  The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.

The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low.  Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.

The Red Sox' and Rangers' Thursday game featured both teams' strengths and weaknesses; poor pitching, especially in relief, and solid hitting. Friday's game may be similar.  The Rangers start left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel.  Keuchel spent a month in the wilderness before emerging with the Rangers, but it hasn't helped his pitching.  He allowed 7 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings in his return start.

Pivetta has been a trooper for the Red Sox this year and has an ERA of 4.12 over his last 7 starts.  He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings.  He has an ERA of close to a run higher when pitching in Fenway, and doesn't usually go for more than 5 innings. 

The Red Sox are hitting very well of late, and especially vs. left handers.  The Rangers are scoring runs in bunches.  Both pens struggled on Thursday, and will probably have plenty of innings to work on Friday.  Thursday's game ended with 17 runs scored, 10 of them in the late innings.  Keuchel is not a good bet for a quality start.  A similar outcome wouldn't surprise me in game two of the series.  Take the Rangers and Sox to go over.

The hard-hitting Rangers have lost 4 straight, and the culprit has been pitching, both starting and relief. They now face the Red Sox and the green monster, a place where they have not been generally successful. The 3-7 Sox return home, where they are under .500 this year. Both these teams are hitting very well and are top five in offense over the last two weeks. The Rangers are hitting left handers particularly well of late.

Well-aged veteran lefty Rich Hill starts for the Sox today. It is hard to see past his last start, a 7 inning gem of a shutout, but this has not been the norm for Hill this year. He regularly pitches 5 innings, and may pay the price after his long last outing. I expect less innings and more runs today.

Glenn Otto starts for the Rangers. Otto has been quite sharp in August with a 2.93 ERA for the month, but reverted to past form in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5innings. The Sox roughed him up badly for his worst start of the year back in May.

Both bullpens have been awful lately; The Rangers has been overused as well. The total is relatively high today but this is to be expected in Fenway Park. Take the Rangers and Sox to get their hacks in and the total to climb over.  9*!

The Royals beat the Sox last night in a bit of a slugfest, and have had good success against Chicago lately. Another win might not be in the offing today. The Royals have not been getting very good pitching of late. Lefty Bubic was on a bit of a run, but that ended abruptly three starts ago. Since then, he has given up 14 runs in just 13 innings. He has been hit very hard (.351) for the month.

He faces right hander Lance Lynn today. After a late start to the season, Lynn seems finally to be rounding into form, with an ERA of 2.83 L7.

The Sox have lost 4 straight games, and their bullpen has struggled to hold a lead. The Royals have been hitting extremely well recently but their bullpen has, if anything, been worse than the Sox’. The wind is blowing out in the Windy City today. Take this game to go over. 9*!

The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause.  They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today.  Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances.  With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today.  The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way.  About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen.
Musgrove starts for the Padres.  He is 0-4, 4.42 in his last 7 starts, a considerable drop from his early season results.  He is off a very short start, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs, only 2 earned.
The Giants are a demoralized team. They have lost 6 straight and are out of the play offs for all intents and purposes.  I like the total today. The number is based more on the reputation of these two pitchers and not on recent performances, especially Webb's.  Add to that, some rough performances from the Padres' bullpen (ERA 5.60 recently), and you have a recipe for an over.  Take advantage of an unexpectedly low total and jump on the over today.

The Marlins held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 win on Saturday, but it took a complete game effort from Alcantara to accomplish it. The 4-6 Marlins start another fine young pitcher on Sunday. Edward Cabrera has just 7 starts under his belt. He has had four appearances in August and has yet to give up a run. He has given up just 8 hits over 22 innings.

The Dodgers’ Urias has been almost as effective and very consistent. He has allowed 2 runs just once in his last seven games; otherwise it has been 1 or zero.

Miami doesn’t hit at all well and their bullpen is struggling big time. The Dodgers obviously hit very well, but like anyone else, struggle vs top pitching. They have yet to face Cabrera, an early advantage to the pitcher. The Dodgers’ pen has not been its’ usual effective self lately. I expect the total will be low in the early going on Sunday, but not by the day's end. It is a very low total, and I can’t see the Marlin’s pen holding back the Dodgers’ offensive tide in the later innings.  The Dodgers pen allowed 4 runs in each of Thursday's and Fridays games.  Take Sunday's total to go over. 9*!

Two good starters face each other when the Cubs and Brewers meet on Friday. Both teams have struggled on offense, especially the Brewers at .176/.595 over the last two weeks.  The Brewers lost big in their last two games and are just 8-13 in August.  The Cubs are over .500 in August, and are hitting a little better than the Brew crew, although they have struggled against left-handed pitching.

Cubs' right-hander Steele hasn't had much success in the win column but he has been terrific elsewhere, with a paltry 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts.  He has thrown a pair of 6 inning shutouts in his last 2 appearances, one of which was against the Brewers.

Lefty Freddy Peralta is just 4 starts back from an extended stay on the IL, and each start has shown improvement.  He held the Cubs to 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start.

The Cubs' bullpen owes Steele a good outing or two, the Brewers' pen is usually very dependable, and everyone has had a day off.  The total is low but I expect this game to end even lower.  Take the Under  between the Cubs and Brewers. 9*!

The Diamondbacks were swept by a tough Cardinals team but bounced back on Tuesday. The bats have been nothing special, but at least considerably better than their opponents on Wednesday. The Royals are just 3-7, hitting very poorly, while scoring less than three runs in 8 of 10 games.

Both starters have been performing very well of late. Galen has been as good as anyone lately, with three straight 7 inning shutouts. And an ERA of 1.17 in his last 7 games. The Royals right-hander Brady Singer has also shone, allowing just 3 runs in his last 3 games, while pitching into the 6th or 7th.

Both bullpens have had some question marks lately, but the D-backs’ relievers have held leads for Gallen in his last two starts, and the Royals’ relievers were in tough against the Rays. With 2 excellent starters pitching for length and a pair of relatively weak hitting teams, I am wagering on the Under on Wednesday.  9.0*!

The Mariners are on a tear, with a 7-3 record lately, and post-season a distinct possibility this year. They are hitting much better, scoring 29 runs in their last 3 games, and have a fine bullpen. Gilbert, today’s starter has struggled of late allowing 16 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. He gave up 4 runs to the A’s in June. The good news is today’s opposition can’t seem to hit anyone well let alone a right-hander.

The A’s are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, .212, .688 OPS lately, and woeful at home. Today’s starter Kaprielian, was exceptional in July, but has slowed down this month. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in August, and his starts are seldom over 5 innings. He has a good and a poor start vs the M’s this year. The A’s pen has been competent lately with an ERA of around four.

The Mariners have a very good record against the A’s and are a very solid road team this year. The total today is very low, reflecting the A’s poor offense as much as today’s starters. Gilbert’s latest performances are an issue, and Kaprielian has not been flawless lately. With the M’s swinging very hot bats, I’m wagering on the over today.

The Angels are off a 1-0 win over the Tigers, with very long starts for both teams. Neither of these teams is hitting well at the moment although the Angels just had Trout return from the IL. A pair of Left handers face off in Saturday’s game. Detmers has been very good for the Angels lately, with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts. The Tigers start Tyler Alexander, a former reliever who has been effective with five straight short starts, allowing no more than 3 run per appearance.

Both offenses have been better vs left handers of late. The bullpens have been poor (Angels) and terrible (Tigers) lately. The total for Saturday’s match is low. I don’t expect 9 and 7 inning superlative starts again on Saturday. The total may be low early, but look for the final score to go over by the end of 9 innings. Take the over. 9*!

Generally, when Arizona and San Fransisco meet, you don’t see much in the way of offense. Another under is likely, with two fine starters, both off a pair of excellent appearances, meet up. Gallen, 4-0 2.94 in his last 7 starts, faced the Giants twice in July, allowing just 3 runs over 11+ innings. Webb, off an 8 inning shutout vs the Pirates, also shut out the D-backs at home in July. Both pitchers will likely pitch deep into the game. Gallen pitches well on the road, and especially well in day games.  Webb is particularly sharp at home.

The Diamondbacks’ batting has fallen off lately, and the Giants, while hitting well, have had little success against Gallen and, if needed, the Arizona bullpen. Look for another of their meetings to go under today.

To no one’s surprise, the A’s are the bottom dwellers of the AL, and haven’t won in 8 games. They might have a chance in today’s game. A’s starter Kaprielian has been effective lately with an ERA of 2.35 in his last 7 starts. This will be his third time facing the Rangers in a month. He shut them out once and allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the second time.

He faces right hander Otto, 0-4, 4.66 in his last seven starts. He has been better in August, giving up just 4 runs over 2 starts. The A’s hit him fairly hard when they faced him with 4 runs scored in 4+ innings, a large haul for them.

The Rangers are hot off a winning series vs the Mariners, are hitting the ball well, and getting better than average relief lately. The A’s are managing just .196 vs. right handers. Both of Kaprielian’s last two starts have gone under. With Otto giving up just 4 runs in August, I expect another low scoring game today. Take the A’s and Rangers to go under the total.  9*.

With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits.

At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings.

Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday.

Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under.  9*.

The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting.

He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching.

The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under.

The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing.

Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately.

The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home.

Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over.

While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent.  The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on.  He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched.  He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season.  His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle.

In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games.  Saturday's total is generous.  Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late.  Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*.

The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp.

The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average.

Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA.

Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday.

The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over.

A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles.

Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length.

The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month.

While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres.

Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*.

The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July.

The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start.

We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9*

The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday.

Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening.

The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats.

Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday.

The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35.

The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late.

I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under.

The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately.

The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball.

Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars.

Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count.

The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole.

The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road.

It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low.  This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals.  Take the over on Sunday>

The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half.

We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total.

He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard.

The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series.

It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season.

Berrios is the big question tomorrow.  Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each.  Take the Total to go over on Sunday.  9 stars.

Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total.

His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts.

The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games.

Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly.  I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over.  Take the total to go over 6.5

Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light?

The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under.

Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” 

Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games.

The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue.

Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. 

Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today.

Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400.

But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. 

The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week.

Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! 

\The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday.

Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season. 

The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game.

Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits.

Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well.

Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one.

The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians.

The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins.

Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching.

I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy!

Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings.

The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19!

Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under.

The Marlins are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they start the ace on Sunday to turn things around. Alcantara (6-2, 1.69 ERA) has been as impressive as anyone this season, pitching for length (23 + innings/L3 games), and holding a 0.76 ERA in June. He gives the Marlins a chance to win every outing, and the Marlins to date have responded well.

Bassitt starts for the Mets. After a month of poor to fair outings, Bassitt re-found his form in his last start, throwing an 8 inning shutout. Bassitt claims to have made the necessary changes and has had some great appearances this season. The Mets’ pen has been excellent lately. While Alcantara may not need much support, he won’t likely get it anyway. The Marlins’ pen has been beyond bad lately, but they do seem to save their best games for Alcantara’s starts.

The Marlins are well down the list in offense for the season, and are hitting particularly poorly, with a sub-.600 OPS in their last week.

I expect Alcantara to continue with his present form, limiting a good Mets’ offense for much of the game. I expect Bassitt to respond with another solid start as well. We haven’t seen an over in Alcantara’s last 5 starts. I don’t think we will seen one on Sunday. Take the Marlins and Mets to go under.

The Yankees lead the tough AL East by a solid margin and knocked off the Rays in a tight game on Wednesday. It could be another pitcher’s duel with two of the best meeting on the mound. Rays’ lefty McClanahan (1.86 ERA) has been dominant this year, including holding the Yankees to just 1 run over 6 innings in May. His last outing was a 2 hit 8 inning shutout vs the Cardinals. He faces Nestor Cortes (1.96 ERA), also a lefty, and also having a fine season. Cortes is off his worst start of the season, a 4 runs in 4+ innings start that was most uncommon. Look for Cortes to bounce back today. Both teams have excellent bullpens, performing very well recently.

The Rays are not a powerhouse on offense this year or recently, with a .666 OPS in the last two weeks. Compare to the Yankees’ .282 BA and .910 OPS in the same time period. Things do even up vs. left-handed pitching somewhat. The Rays have been weak on the road this year.

It is hard to argue with the Yankees’ offense but if anyone can hold them down it will be McClanahan. Another low total seems likely today, and considering the respective bullpens’ prowess, the complete game total seems the best option. Take the Yankees and Rays to go under today.

The Phillies are on a tear at 7-0, and have roughed up some very good starters in that stretch. In addition to a potent offense, their bullpen has, for a change, been very effective with an ERA of 2.34 over their last 10 games. The Diamond-backs, light-hitting as usual, are just 2-6, with an extra poor stretch from their relievers (6.19 ERA/ L10 games).

The Phillies’ starter today, Kyle Gibson, has been hit hard in May and June. While he is better at home, opposing batters are hitting over .300 in the last month. Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks. With just one really poor start for the season, he has been very good on the road. After a stellar April, we’ve seen his earned runs total creep up, mainly due to the long ball. Gallen allowed 0 HR in his first five starts and 4 in his last 5.

I favor Gallen as a starter today, but the Phillies have been a tough out recently and the Diamondbacks’ pen is a shambles. Gibson is struggling, allowing 5 runs over just 3+ innings in his last start. All things considered, I am on the over today. The Phillies’ offense vs a poor bullpen could get ugly, and even the weak-hitting D-backs should have their chances against Gibson.

The Jays are on a roll, the White Sox, no so much, however they have Kopech (8 starts, 1.29 ERA) on the mound today, who has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Kopech spent most of 2021 as a reliever, but it is as a starter this year that he has really shone. He has given up just 6 runs in 8 starts, with opposing batters hitting just .103. The Jays haven’t faced Kopech as a starter. His last outing was a 7 innning shutout.

The Jays counter with Ryu, who has bounced back from a poor April and a stint on the IL. Ryu can be the master of the slow stuff, but when things go wrong, they go very wrong in a hurry. He has had 3 solid starts in a row now, giving up just 3 runs over 15 innings.

The White Sox’ bullpen has struggled lately with an ERA of 5.26. The Jays’ has been better, but not stellar, and their slumbering offense appears to be waking up in the last couple of weeks. The Sox are hitting well for average, but have been short on power for much of this season.

With the Jays’ first real look at Kopech and Ryu on a roll, I like the sounds of the total today. Take the Sox and Jays to go under.

The Pirates face the home-team Padres today, and each team has a young and, so far, successful starter on the mound. Pirates’ right-hander Contreras has been up and down from Triple A a couple of times, but in between has pitched masterfully with just 1 run given up over 11 innings. His last outing was a five inning shutout. I doubt we can expect much more length than that today.

Padres’ lefty, Gore is the more tested of the two, with 7 starts and an ERA of 2.06. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings once, but otherwise has been exceptional. As far as relief pitching goes, the Padres have a definite edge; the Pirates’ lair has struggled lately, where the Padres’ relievers have been razor sharp in their last ten games.

Pittsburgh can’t seem to hit a lick this year, dragging up the rear for the full season. They are particularly feeble vs left- handed pitching of late. Th Padres aren’t much better for power, earning just 3.3 runs per start to date.

Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher, usually an advantage to the pitcher. Both starters have looked very composed to date. While the Padres should be favored today, the lop-sided odds suggest a close look at the total.  Offenses considered, I will take these two pitchers to continue their fine play.  Take the Pirates and Padres to go under.

The Rays lost at home to the Yankees on Thursday, and will look to lefty Jeffrey Springs (1.32 ERA) to turn things around. Springs will have a pretty good chance in doing so. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 3 starts under his belt, and his 2nd and last starts were 5 inning shutouts. While not completely stretched out, he appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year. While the Rays’ pen failed them last night they are generally a very good bullpen, so Springs’ length is not critical today.

The Yankees rely on Taillon (2.95 ERA) today. His worst start came just 2 appearances ago, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings, but in 7 other starts, it has been 2 runs or less. He gives up a fair number of hits, hut has limited hard contact to date. They Yankees generally have a very fine group of relievers, but are missing 3 key members and are struggling lately.

The Yankees could be missing a trio of big boppers today, and while their offense has been dominant this year, they are just as fallible vs quality pitching as anyone else. They have little experience or success vs Springs. All things considered, I expect a relatively low scoring affair this evening. Take the Yankees and Rays to go Under today.

The Rangers unexpectedly swept the Angels in their home series, but have struggled since, losing 5 of 6 games. The Angels have been streaky, recently winning 3 straight. Yound lefty Detmers starts for the Angels. Famous now for his no hitter, he has otherwise been pretty average, with relatively short starts and a 4.15 ERA. Other than the one start, he has consistently struggled after the third inning.

For Rangers starter Otto, it has been the reverse. One very bad outing (8 runs over 3.2 innings) has skewed an otherwise reasonable start. In his other 4 starts, he has given up 2 runs or less. With rare exceptions, neither pitcher has thrown for length this season, and both bullpens have struggled recently. The Angels’ pen has an ERA of over 5.00 in their last ten games, whilethe Rangers relievers’ ERA is over 4.00 in their last five games.

There is no contest on offense. The Angels are at the top of the heap in OPS with the Rangers bottom-feeders on offense for the season. I think it will be the Angels offense and both bullpens that decide this game. Look for plenty of runs late in the game, and take the OVER today.

The Jays bats have been a big disappointment lately. Thought to possess a formidable offense this year, they are hitting just .215 vs right-handers, and have sunk to 27th in the league in OPS. To put this in perspective, the lowly Reds have climbed from near worst to 7th, with a .755 OPS in their last two weeks. The Jays are getting good results from starting pitching but have squandered some very fine outings. Manoah (1.71 ERA), who has arguably been their best starter was the victim of a poor effort from the offense plus questionable play in the field last time out. He has not given up more than 2 runs in 7 starts to date.

The Reds have also getting good starting pitching, including rookie Hunter Greene’s first quality start of his career. Greene has monster stuff but has not been able to harness it until his last start. The result was a 7+inning no hit shutout. Just about anything is possible from Greene on Saturday, but the way the Jays have been hitting, another fine outing is a possibility.

The Jays are a huge favorite against the Reds, an unwarranted favorite considering the two teams’ recent action. Friday’s game ended in a 2-1 final score. Greene is just the kind of pitcher the Jays have struggled with in the past.  Take Saturday's total to go under.

The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off?

Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night.

The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately.  These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday.  I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable.  I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over.

Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings.

Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start.

While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot.

The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total.

Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues.

The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games.

Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better.

It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over.

It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field.

Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start.

Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five.

Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday

The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date.

Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league.

While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date.

These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today

The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season.

Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight.

The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under.

The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by.

The  road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring.

Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against.  Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under.

Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year.

The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under

Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers.

The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros.

The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total.

The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year.  Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself.

Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total.

It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total.   A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say.  Take this game to go over.

The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win.

The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training.

Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up.

Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62)

As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief.

I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest.

The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides.

I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over.

Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter.

The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue.

The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested.

Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest?  Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers?  Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings.

This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under.

Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon)

With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history.

Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday.

Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4.

The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday.

Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02)

This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start.

These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under.

White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha)

The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise?

Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support.

These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching.

I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total.

The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven. 

My wager? Take the OVER

The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work. 

The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox.

The set-up: This can still be a pitchers duel and go "over" this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. It's impossible to say anything negative about either Jacob deGrom of the Mets or Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Each has been damn near perfect. Regression is likely to come, but not anything terrible. All of that said, this play is based entirely on some very strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot.

The pick: As note that the Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent, while San Diego has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing while scoring two or less runs in the process. Look for this one to sneak over in the latter frames.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mets/Padres.

The setup: If you aren’t yet on the Manoah bandwagon, check this game out. After a brief stint in Minors, Manoah forced his way into the Jays’ beleaguered rotation with three strong starts in Triple A. His first major league game was versus the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Nerves? Not a chance. Nervy, more likely. Manoah delivered 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs and 7 strikeouts, and baffled the Yanks from start to finish.

Pitching for the Marlins is Pedro Lopez, no slouch either. An unlucky 1- 3 this season, with an ERA of 2.71, Lopez in his last three starts has delivered 19 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, and 16 strikeouts. The Marlins’ bullpen is much improved over last year, and the total has gone under 3 of the last 4 of Marlins games.

The pick: The Jays have never faced Lopez, and while they have the potential of formidable offense in 2021, they are still a very young team. They have a tendency to struggle the first time against an unfamiliar pitcher. This total is indeed high in my opinion.

This is a 10* IL TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Marlins/Jays.

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has been decent this year, but  I believe these hungry line-ups will garner the most headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez (2-0, 2.95 ERA) who went six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. It was easily his best start of the year. After a couple of shaky campaigns, Velasquez looks to finally have found his groove again. Hard to say anything negative about him at this point, I just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time essentially.

The pick: Wade Miley (4-4, 3.50) gets the nod for the home side and he returns from a short stint on the IL with a sprained foot. He'll be on a bit of leash here in this outing. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in all "day games" this season. This one has "over" written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Phillies/Reds.

The set-up: Two of three games in this four-game series have gone "over" the number, but I think this afernoon's get-a-way total is just a little too high now. Two starting pitchers who will be hungry to get their season's back on track go head-to-head here. The visitors go with Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA) who gave up six runs (three earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Yabrough has been much better on the road (2-1, 3.93) than at home this year (0-2, 4.71). 

The pick: Ross Stripling is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he's struggled, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded six or more runs in. Look for this one to sneak "under."

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Rays/Jays.

The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but a couple of red hot starters collide in the third game, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) gae up one run and struck out six over six innings in unfortunate no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Over 20 innings of work he's allowed just four runs.

The pick: Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81) has been superb whenever the Padres have needed him. Dinelson Lamet is set to come in if Weathers falters as well. Finally, note that the Padres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is high.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Cardinals/Padres.

The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here. 

The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays.

The set-up: The Giants have won four of their last five, which includes two in a row here at home over the Rangers most recently. Both of those contests were low-scoring, but everything points to more of a "slug-fest" here today. Anthony DeSclafani has been sharp for the Giants overall, but he's coming off a poor start, allowing three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Note, while 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he's 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road. 

The pick: Wil Crowe gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. The rookie is 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA, but the sample size here is just way too small. Certainly he draws a tough opponent in the Giants, who have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 road games after playing to back-to-back home "unders." This number is low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Giants/Pirates.

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one. Philadelphia has won four straight, most recently sweeping the Brewers at home. Atlanta has won three straight, most recently sweeping the Nationals at home. Both teams got out to poor starts and neither can afford to take the foot off the gas any time soon. With each side finally starting to play better, expect these trends to carry over here and for that to then translate into offensive production on the field. 

The pick: Zach Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.49 ERA, while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA for the Braves. Neither has been overly spectacular. Neither team has received very good bullpen play thie year either. It all adds up to a high-scoring "slug-fest" in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves.

The set-up: A couple of suspect starting pitchers go head-to-head in this one and they face a couple of team's desperate to start stringing wins together. When you add those two factors up, invariably you get a higher-scoring game. Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), will likely eventually start getting his season turned around, but so far he's been a disaster, most recently allowing six runs off seven hits, including three home runs in a 13-5 loss to the Jays. 

The pick: Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00), was good in his season debut for his new team, going five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Fish on Friday. Last year the veteran had a 5.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, so regression is imminent in opinion. Look for these starting pitchers to get the hook early and look for that to help in driving this total "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Braves/Nationals.

The set-up: The Yanks have won four in a row now, most recently a 7-3 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the Astros. While that total went "over," I expect Wednesday's game to be more of a "duel." Houston turns to Luis Garcia, who won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the season 0-3. He most recently comes in off a hard-luck loss vs. the Mariners, giving up one run over five innings, striking out six and giving up zero walks. He has a 2.70 ERA and a 20/7 K/W over 20 innings of work. 

The pick: The Yanks counter with Jordan Montgomery, who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and who comes in off a good start vs. the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings. Montgomery sports a sharp 24/8 K/W. Look for these two competent starting pitchers to battle deep, and for this one to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Astros/Yankees.

The set-up: After the Reds' high-scoring 8-6 win yesterday, I'm expecting more of a "duel" on Saturday. Both teams have now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note that the Cubs have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in. 

The pick: Are Luis Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) and Zach Davies (1-2, 9.47) really as horrible as their numbers would indicate? I'd say, absolutely not. Clearly both have significant issues early, but Castillo is 4-3 with a 3.86 ER in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Davies came over in the Yu Darvish trade and he's struggled in the early going, but I expect a much better effort here. Look for these two very hungry starters to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cubs/Reds.

The set-up: The last two games of this series have flown "over" the number, including yesterday's 5-4 win for the Dodgers. All signs point to the Sunday finale being a "duel" though in my opinion. These teams have strong bullpens and they both send strong starting pitchers to the hill. San Diego turns to Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA), while the home side counters with Dustin May (1-1, 2.93.) These two are in top form and there's no reason not to believe they won't continue that trend here.

The pick: San Diego has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 14 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded five or more runs in. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in last night's 3-2 Padres win, and obviously that came up short. San Diego has now seen the total go "under" in six straight, while LA has seen the total go "under" in five in a row. Darvish and Kershaw have somehow defied the odds and remained relevant as starting pitchers and while each has been good in the early going (Kershaw is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA, while Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.55), strong O/U trends point for this game as being a "slug-fest," rather than a "duel." 

The pick: San Diego has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six home games in trying to revnege a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for this one to comfortably eclispe the number in the latter innings.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Padres/Dodgers.

The set-up: These teams are loaded with offensive talent, but each has played to several "unders" in a row. San Diego has seen the total go "under" in five straight. It also comes in off three straight loss at home to Milwaukee. Clearly the Friars are going to be out to atone for that poor series showing, totaling just three runs vs. the Brewers. The Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in four strraight, most recently holding on for a 1-0 win at Seattle. 

The pick: Buehler and Weathers are a "wash" here. I base a lot of my MLB picks on the starting pitching and I don't have anything at all negative to say about either of these starters, as I simply feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. As note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent scoreless, while scoring two or less runs itself in the process. Look for this one to fly well "over" in the latter frames.

This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Padres/Dodgers.

The set-up: The Phillies go with Zack Wheeler, who is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Most recently he allowed three runs over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Mets. Wheeler's been decent in the early going, and he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA vs. the Giants. Philly though has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent (fell 2-0 in the series opener yesterday.) 

The pick: Logan Webb gets the nod for the visitors despite having some COVID related issues of late. He's 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Note that San Fran has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after holding its opponent scoreless on the road in its previous outing. I'm banking on these hungry line-ups being the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Giants/Phillies.

The set-up: The Reds smashed the Indians 10-3 on Friday night, but I'm expecting a more defensive, lower-scoring "duel" here on Saturday afternoon. The Indians rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. Triston McKenzie gets the nod here for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 4.70 ERA. This is his third appearance of the season and he's been solid thus far. 

The pick: Sonny Gray makes his season debut for Cincinnati. Last year he was 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Before last night's big offensive explosion though, the Reds' bats had cooled off considerably. I think this interleague affair on Saturday afternoon will be highlighted by solid starting pitching. 

This is a 10* TOTAL CHAOS on the UNDER Indians/Reds.

The set-up: Two teams that got out to poor starts, but which have looked a bit better of late collide in the Nation's capital in the opener of this three-game series. Each team sends a pitcher to the hill that struggled in his opening start, and I expect that trend to carry over here and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pick: Merrill Kelly is 0-2 for the D-Backs. In his most recent loss he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over six innings vs. the Rockies. His counterpart Patrick Corbin is 0-1 after allowing six runs off six hits with three walks over four innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Look for these two still volatile starting pitchers to get the hook early and for these suspect pens to collapse late. This number is low, the play is the "over."

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER D-Backs/Nationals.

The set-up: Whether it's JA Happ or Nathan Eovaldi pitching for Boston, or Martin Perez or Kenta Maeda going for the Twins, I believe the conditions of this particular contest will help in making it a very lower-scoring pitchers duel. Yesterday's game was postponed at the last minute due to the civil unrest in Minnesota and I believe this distraction will effect these team's chemistry at the plate. 

The pick: Weather could be a major factor here as well. The postponements are working in favor of these starting pitchers in my opinion. Too many off-field distractions for these players leads to a lower-scoring "under."

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Red Sox/Twins.

The set-up: I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between Matt Moore and Drew Smyly. Moore earned a no-decision in his first start of hte year vs. the Mets, allowing two runs over 3.1 innings. Smyly allowed four runs (just two earned though), over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. It was a solid debut for Smyly. 

The pick: Neither starter instills a ton of confidence, but the overall situation points to a lower-scoring duel here in my opinion. Further note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after scoring five or more runs in a one run victory in its last outing. This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Phillies/Braves.

The set-up: San Diego has seen the total go "under" in six straight, but I expect that lop-sided trend to end here today. The Padres have plenty of key injuries, but they remain competitive. Texas is 3-3 and it'll be eager to bounce back after its 3-0 defeat in the opener of this series. Chris Paddack gets the start for the visitors after allowing three runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona last Sunday. 

The pick: Jordan Lyles gets the nod for the home side, he's 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA so far. The Rangers have been good at the plate as well, averaging .262 as a team, which ranks sixth in MLB. I don't trust either starter and these line-ups are primed to take advantage. Look for this one to fly "over" in the latter frames.

This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Padres/Rangers.

The set-up: Game 1 of this series is the only contest that has gone "under" the number. After playing to four straight "overs," though, I think this Game 6 sets up as more of a "duel." We have the Game 1 starting pitchers squaring off here and that's significant. Max Fried has a 2.65 ERA and 18 K's over 17 playoff innings of work so far, while Walker Buehler has gone 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 48 career playoff innings for the Dodgers. 

The pick: Note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after allowing seven or more runs in a three runs or greater loss in its previous outing, while the Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to four or more consecutive "overs." This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Braves/Dodgers.

The set-up: While the first five games of this series have gone "under" the number, I think that Game 6 is going to fly over the total sooner, rather than later. Both teams have struggled at the plate and each of these starters has been sharp so far in the playoffs. It would be "easy" to write a convincing argument for another "under," but the value has now swung the other way. 

The pick: As note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to four or more straight "unders," while also coming off a victory in its previous outing, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 21 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect these offenses to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries.

This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Astros/Rays.

The set-up: The first three games of this series have fallen "under" the number, but all signs point to Game 4 going "over." The Astros have their backs against the wall, but I don't expect them to go down quietly in this series. The Rays are still averaging 4.2 RPG and hitting 1.9 home runs per contest in the playoffs. And that's bad news for Astros' veteran starter Zack Greinke, who is a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 18 playoff starts. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 for the Rays in the playoffs, despite a 4.05 ERA. 

The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more losses in a row. Expect these two talented offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Astros.

The set-up: After yesterday's 10-5 win for the Astros, I expect much more of a duel here in Game 2. Framber Valdez (3-5, 3.57 ERA) gave up only lfive home runs over 70 2/3's innings of work in the regular season. He came in on relief of Zack Greinke during his team's 4-1 win over the Twins and delivered five scoreless frames. 

The pick: Sean Manaea comes in fresh for the A's, as he did not throw in the series win over the White Sox. Manaea only allowed seven home runs over 54 innings of work, while striking out 45 this year. Note as well that the A's have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Athletics.

The set-up: Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are two of the top pitchers in the entire league. Each comes in off a decent season and both have performed well over their last five games. Despite that though, I think that these two powerful and hungry line-ups will combine to push this total over this low number once it's all said and done. The Rays dominated the regular season series 8-2, but that just adds big incentive for this now healthy Yankees slugging line-up to get revenge. In my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" from a situational stand point. 

The pick: It also sets up great from an O/U ATS/stats stand-point as well, as note that New York has seen the total go "over" in six of its last seven on the road, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 when playing with two or more days of rest. Expect this one to blast past the total in the middle frames!

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Yanks/Rays.

The set-up: The Dodgers enter this series with the best record in baseball at 38-16. LA has already clinched a playoff spot and so too has San Diego, which sits right behind it at 34-20. The Dodgers still haven't clinched the division though. Oakland has also clinched a playoff spot but it still hasn't earned the AL West crown yet at 33-20. Houston is at 27-26, so it's just a matter of time now before the A's earn that spot. But turning to this interesting interleague matchup...we have Frankie Montas of the A's going up against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Montas is just 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA, who returns from a stint on  the paternity list. Montas has lost four straight and he draws a tough matchup here, but he has the track record and pedigree to bounce back. He was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA last season and he has this game and one more to get back on track before the playoffs start. May is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA and he most recently worked five innings of relief in a 7-5 win over the Padres on Wednesday. May has an even better 2.57 ERA at home and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that he can't carry over his recent form into this one as well.

The pick: Instead of a slug-fest in the opener of this series, I think the stage is set for a pitchers duel. Expect these division leaders to battle to a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER A's/Dodgers.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in yesterday's 20-6 victory for the Yanks. In these team's previous series vs. each other in Buffalo two of three went "under" the number and I expect that after yesterday's big explosion, that we're going to see much more of a "duel" on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.60 ERA), who faced the Yanks last Wednesday and who allowed two runs over four innings. Overall Roark is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts vs. New York.

The pick: He'll be opposed by Yanks' ace Gerritt Cole (5-3, 3.20) who comes in off a complete game effort vs. the Orioles, halting a three-game losing streak, while going on to strike out nine. Finally note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 18 of its last 26 after scoring 20 or more runs in a victory vs. an opponent in its previous outing. I expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Yanks.

The set-up: These teams have only met in one other series, just last week and the Jays took two of three. The Yanks won the final game of that series and they just finished beating the Orioles in four straight, including outscoring them 23-3 in the process. 

The pick: Taijuan Walker and Deivi Garcia have both been excellent for the most part in their limited time for their teams, but the problem is is that these talented hitting line-ups "saw" them just last week and I think that'll lead to trouble the second time around. While two of three fell "under" in their first series against each other, I believe that this first game in New York definitely sets up as a "slug-fest." 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jays/Yankees.

The set-up: The Braves have been crushing the ball of late and while they've seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, including the first two of this series, I think Saturday's contest finally sets up as a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) who has been sharp in the time that he's been given, posting 18 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. 

The pick: The home side counters with Patrick Corbrin (2-4, 4.34 ERA), who is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA in all of his games thrown in the Nation's capital. He faced the Braves last month and got rocked for five runs over five innings, only the second time in eight starts that he's allowed more than five runs. I like Corbin to bounce back here at home and I thikn that Andreson maintains his recent form as well. Additionally note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs." This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Braves/Nationals.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some fairly high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that Friday's game sets up as more of a lower-scoring "under." The Braves go with Josh Tomlin (2-2, 3.77 ERA), who is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Erick Fedde (1-3, 5.29) gets the call for the home side and he's not fared as well against his opponent in the past. I'll point out though that the Nationals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after allowing seven or more runs in a home loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I think this one sneaks "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Braves/Nats.

The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over," but I think that the finale will end in a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who has been sharp for sure this season and who has faced the D-Backs one other time. May has a big opportunity to pad his stats here vs. a dejected Arizona side which has lost five in a row and is officially eliminated from playoff contention. 

The pick: The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 8.44) who makes his second start since returning from the ten-day DL. Bumgarner is obviously not happy at all with the way things have unfolded this year, the veteran though will look to personally close out strong as he prepares for next season. Bumgarner enters having gone 15-14 with a sharp 2.72 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Dodgers. I think this is a great "situational" play.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs.

The set-up: While yesterday's game had 19 runs scored, I believe that Wednesday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.50 ERA) who threw six scoreless vs. these very D-Backs just last week. Overall Kershaw is a spectacular 18-10 with a 2.69 ERA in 35 starts vs. Arizona. 

The pick: Taylor Clarke (1-0, 2.96) counters for the D-Backs and in six career appearances vs. the Dodgers he's a pedestrian 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. I'll point out though that Arizona has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. I think Arizona's issues at the plate once again come back to haunt it here. Expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs.

The set-up: While neither team has been plating a lot of runs of late, I think that Tuesday's contest definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" finally. Cleveland won 5-2 yesterday and it's out to keep the foot on the gas with less than three weeks to go in the regular season. KC hands the ball to Jakob Junis (0-1, 4.32 ERA), while the Tribe go with Triston McKenzie (2-0, 1.69). Junis lost to the Indians last Wednesday, allowing two runs over four innings. McKenzie threw six shutout frames throwing opposite Junis, but regression is imminent for both of these over-acheiving young hurlers in my opinion. 

The pick: Kansas City has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring two or less runs and losing by three or more runs in its previous outing. I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Royals/Indians.

The set-up: Considering the two gas cans on the mound this afternoon, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday and each will be motivated to get back into the winners circle. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his first start of the year after a positive Covid 19 test. Urena will be a short leash today.

The pick: Ian Anderson (0-0, 2.25) has a 14:3 K:BB over his first 12 innings of work, but clearly the sample size is still much too small for the Braves' rookie. I'll point out as well that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs in a victory in its previous outing. I expect both pitchers to get the hook early and as such, all signs point to the "over" as the correct call here. 

The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Marlins/Braves.

The set-up: Boston won 9-8 yesterday, but I think Sunday's total will sneak "under" once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (1-4, 7.34 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits with four strikes over 3.1 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on Tuesday. 36 of his 48 pitches were thrown for a strike and I like Ray to continue his progression in this favorable matchup. 

The pick: The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (0-2, 16.20), who makes his first start for the Red Sox after being claimed off waivers from San Fran. Triggs has faced Toronto twice in his career and gone 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA over four innings of work. I'll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. This number is a tad high.

The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox.

The set-up: Yesterday's contest snuck "over" the number late (I had the "under" unfortunately), but I think that Saturday's contest will indeed stay below the posted number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (3-2, 3.14 ERA) who enters off an outing to forget vs. the Twins, allowing four runs (just two earned) while striking out eight over five innings. Note though that over his last three starts Giolito has allowed two earned runs while striking out 34 over 21 innings. 

The pick: Cris Bubic (0-4, 5.46) comes off his best start of the year, allowing two earned runs and striking out eight over 5.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. these very White Sox. Over 28 frames of work Bubic now sports a respectable 27:12 K:BB this season and I expect him to build off his last outing. With these two starters battling deep, this total goes "under" once it's all said and done.

The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER White Sox/Royals.

The set-up: Yesterday's contest between these clubs flew well "over" the number in the ChiSox 11-6 victory, but I think that Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors go with Dane Dunning (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who faced these very Royals in his last outing, allowing one walk, no hits while striking out seven over five scoreless frames, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Over two starts Dunning sas a 14:2 K:BB and I think he keeps the momentum rolling here. 

The pick: The home side counters with Brady Singer (1-3, 5.19), who allowed three runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision vs. these very White Sox last weekend. Dunning owns a decent 31:14 K:BB over 34.2 innings of work. I think these two young but hungry capable starters go into the latter frames and I believe that's going to help in driving this total "under" by the end of the night.

The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER White Sox/Royals.