Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-14-22 | Padres v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off? Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night. The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately. These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday. I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable. I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over. |
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05-13-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings. Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start. While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot. The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total. |
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05-05-22 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues. The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games. Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better. It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over. |
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05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field. Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start. Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five. Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday |
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04-26-22 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 8-12 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date. Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league. While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date. These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today |
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04-23-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season. Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight. The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under. |
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04-19-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by. The road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring. Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against. Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under. |
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04-14-22 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year. The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under |
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04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers. The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros. The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total. |
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04-08-22 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year. Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself. Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total. It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total. A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say. Take this game to go over. |
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04-07-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win. The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training. Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up. |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62) As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief. I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest. The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides. I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over. |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA) The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter. The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue. The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested. Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest? Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers? Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings. This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under. |
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10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon) With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history. Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday. Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4. The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday. |
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08-31-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02) This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start. These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under. |
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08-20-21 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 101 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha) The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise? Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support. These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching. I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total. |
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07-09-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven. My wager? Take the OVER |
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06-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work. The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox. |
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06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This can still be a pitchers duel and go "over" this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. It's impossible to say anything negative about either Jacob deGrom of the Mets or Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Each has been damn near perfect. Regression is likely to come, but not anything terrible. All of that said, this play is based entirely on some very strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot. The pick: As note that the Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent, while San Diego has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing while scoring two or less runs in the process. Look for this one to sneak over in the latter frames. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mets/Padres. |
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06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The setup: If you aren’t yet on the Manoah bandwagon, check this game out. After a brief stint in Minors, Manoah forced his way into the Jays’ beleaguered rotation with three strong starts in Triple A. His first major league game was versus the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Nerves? Not a chance. Nervy, more likely. Manoah delivered 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs and 7 strikeouts, and baffled the Yanks from start to finish. Pitching for the Marlins is Pedro Lopez, no slouch either. An unlucky 1- 3 this season, with an ERA of 2.71, Lopez in his last three starts has delivered 19 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, and 16 strikeouts. The Marlins’ bullpen is much improved over last year, and the total has gone under 3 of the last 4 of Marlins games. The pick: The Jays have never faced Lopez, and while they have the potential of formidable offense in 2021, they are still a very young team. They have a tendency to struggle the first time against an unfamiliar pitcher. This total is indeed high in my opinion. This is a 10* IL TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Marlins/Jays. |
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05-31-21 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has been decent this year, but I believe these hungry line-ups will garner the most headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez (2-0, 2.95 ERA) who went six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. It was easily his best start of the year. After a couple of shaky campaigns, Velasquez looks to finally have found his groove again. Hard to say anything negative about him at this point, I just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time essentially. The pick: Wade Miley (4-4, 3.50) gets the nod for the home side and he returns from a short stint on the IL with a sprained foot. He'll be on a bit of leash here in this outing. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in all "day games" this season. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Phillies/Reds. |
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05-24-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of three games in this four-game series have gone "over" the number, but I think this afernoon's get-a-way total is just a little too high now. Two starting pitchers who will be hungry to get their season's back on track go head-to-head here. The visitors go with Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA) who gave up six runs (three earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Yabrough has been much better on the road (2-1, 3.93) than at home this year (0-2, 4.71). The pick: Ross Stripling is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he's struggled, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded six or more runs in. Look for this one to sneak "under." This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Rays/Jays. |
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05-16-21 | Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but a couple of red hot starters collide in the third game, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) gae up one run and struck out six over six innings in unfortunate no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Over 20 innings of work he's allowed just four runs. The pick: Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81) has been superb whenever the Padres have needed him. Dinelson Lamet is set to come in if Weathers falters as well. Finally, note that the Padres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Cardinals/Padres. |
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05-14-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here. The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays. |
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05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants have won four of their last five, which includes two in a row here at home over the Rangers most recently. Both of those contests were low-scoring, but everything points to more of a "slug-fest" here today. Anthony DeSclafani has been sharp for the Giants overall, but he's coming off a poor start, allowing three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Note, while 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he's 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road. The pick: Wil Crowe gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. The rookie is 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA, but the sample size here is just way too small. Certainly he draws a tough opponent in the Giants, who have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 road games after playing to back-to-back home "unders." This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Giants/Pirates. |
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05-07-21 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one. Philadelphia has won four straight, most recently sweeping the Brewers at home. Atlanta has won three straight, most recently sweeping the Nationals at home. Both teams got out to poor starts and neither can afford to take the foot off the gas any time soon. With each side finally starting to play better, expect these trends to carry over here and for that to then translate into offensive production on the field. The pick: Zach Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.49 ERA, while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA for the Braves. Neither has been overly spectacular. Neither team has received very good bullpen play thie year either. It all adds up to a high-scoring "slug-fest" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves. |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of suspect starting pitchers go head-to-head in this one and they face a couple of team's desperate to start stringing wins together. When you add those two factors up, invariably you get a higher-scoring game. Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), will likely eventually start getting his season turned around, but so far he's been a disaster, most recently allowing six runs off seven hits, including three home runs in a 13-5 loss to the Jays. The pick: Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00), was good in his season debut for his new team, going five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Fish on Friday. Last year the veteran had a 5.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, so regression is imminent in opinion. Look for these starting pitchers to get the hook early and look for that to help in driving this total "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Braves/Nationals. |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks have won four in a row now, most recently a 7-3 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the Astros. While that total went "over," I expect Wednesday's game to be more of a "duel." Houston turns to Luis Garcia, who won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the season 0-3. He most recently comes in off a hard-luck loss vs. the Mariners, giving up one run over five innings, striking out six and giving up zero walks. He has a 2.70 ERA and a 20/7 K/W over 20 innings of work. The pick: The Yanks counter with Jordan Montgomery, who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and who comes in off a good start vs. the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings. Montgomery sports a sharp 24/8 K/W. Look for these two competent starting pitchers to battle deep, and for this one to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Astros/Yankees. |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: After the Reds' high-scoring 8-6 win yesterday, I'm expecting more of a "duel" on Saturday. Both teams have now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note that the Cubs have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in. The pick: Are Luis Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) and Zach Davies (1-2, 9.47) really as horrible as their numbers would indicate? I'd say, absolutely not. Clearly both have significant issues early, but Castillo is 4-3 with a 3.86 ER in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Davies came over in the Yu Darvish trade and he's struggled in the early going, but I expect a much better effort here. Look for these two very hungry starters to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cubs/Reds. |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The last two games of this series have flown "over" the number, including yesterday's 5-4 win for the Dodgers. All signs point to the Sunday finale being a "duel" though in my opinion. These teams have strong bullpens and they both send strong starting pitchers to the hill. San Diego turns to Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA), while the home side counters with Dustin May (1-1, 2.93.) These two are in top form and there's no reason not to believe they won't continue that trend here. The pick: San Diego has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 14 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded five or more runs in. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers. |
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04-23-21 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 6-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in last night's 3-2 Padres win, and obviously that came up short. San Diego has now seen the total go "under" in six straight, while LA has seen the total go "under" in five in a row. Darvish and Kershaw have somehow defied the odds and remained relevant as starting pitchers and while each has been good in the early going (Kershaw is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA, while Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.55), strong O/U trends point for this game as being a "slug-fest," rather than a "duel." The pick: San Diego has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six home games in trying to revnege a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for this one to comfortably eclispe the number in the latter innings. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Padres/Dodgers. |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are loaded with offensive talent, but each has played to several "unders" in a row. San Diego has seen the total go "under" in five straight. It also comes in off three straight loss at home to Milwaukee. Clearly the Friars are going to be out to atone for that poor series showing, totaling just three runs vs. the Brewers. The Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in four strraight, most recently holding on for a 1-0 win at Seattle. The pick: Buehler and Weathers are a "wash" here. I base a lot of my MLB picks on the starting pitching and I don't have anything at all negative to say about either of these starters, as I simply feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. As note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row, while LA has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent scoreless, while scoring two or less runs itself in the process. Look for this one to fly well "over" in the latter frames. This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Padres/Dodgers. |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 103 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies go with Zack Wheeler, who is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Most recently he allowed three runs over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Mets. Wheeler's been decent in the early going, and he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA vs. the Giants. Philly though has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent (fell 2-0 in the series opener yesterday.) The pick: Logan Webb gets the nod for the visitors despite having some COVID related issues of late. He's 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Note that San Fran has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after holding its opponent scoreless on the road in its previous outing. I'm banking on these hungry line-ups being the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Giants/Phillies. |
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04-17-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds smashed the Indians 10-3 on Friday night, but I'm expecting a more defensive, lower-scoring "duel" here on Saturday afternoon. The Indians rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. Triston McKenzie gets the nod here for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 4.70 ERA. This is his third appearance of the season and he's been solid thus far. The pick: Sonny Gray makes his season debut for Cincinnati. Last year he was 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Before last night's big offensive explosion though, the Reds' bats had cooled off considerably. I think this interleague affair on Saturday afternoon will be highlighted by solid starting pitching. This is a 10* TOTAL CHAOS on the UNDER Indians/Reds. |
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04-15-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams that got out to poor starts, but which have looked a bit better of late collide in the Nation's capital in the opener of this three-game series. Each team sends a pitcher to the hill that struggled in his opening start, and I expect that trend to carry over here and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The pick: Merrill Kelly is 0-2 for the D-Backs. In his most recent loss he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over six innings vs. the Rockies. His counterpart Patrick Corbin is 0-1 after allowing six runs off six hits with three walks over four innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Look for these two still volatile starting pitchers to get the hook early and for these suspect pens to collapse late. This number is low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER D-Backs/Nationals. |
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04-13-21 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether it's JA Happ or Nathan Eovaldi pitching for Boston, or Martin Perez or Kenta Maeda going for the Twins, I believe the conditions of this particular contest will help in making it a very lower-scoring pitchers duel. Yesterday's game was postponed at the last minute due to the civil unrest in Minnesota and I believe this distraction will effect these team's chemistry at the plate. The pick: Weather could be a major factor here as well. The postponements are working in favor of these starting pitchers in my opinion. Too many off-field distractions for these players leads to a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Red Sox/Twins. |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between Matt Moore and Drew Smyly. Moore earned a no-decision in his first start of hte year vs. the Mets, allowing two runs over 3.1 innings. Smyly allowed four runs (just two earned though), over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. It was a solid debut for Smyly. The pick: Neither starter instills a ton of confidence, but the overall situation points to a lower-scoring duel here in my opinion. Further note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after scoring five or more runs in a one run victory in its last outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Phillies/Braves. |
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04-10-21 | Padres v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: San Diego has seen the total go "under" in six straight, but I expect that lop-sided trend to end here today. The Padres have plenty of key injuries, but they remain competitive. Texas is 3-3 and it'll be eager to bounce back after its 3-0 defeat in the opener of this series. Chris Paddack gets the start for the visitors after allowing three runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona last Sunday. The pick: Jordan Lyles gets the nod for the home side, he's 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA so far. The Rangers have been good at the plate as well, averaging .262 as a team, which ranks sixth in MLB. I don't trust either starter and these line-ups are primed to take advantage. Look for this one to fly "over" in the latter frames. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Padres/Rangers. |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 of this series is the only contest that has gone "under" the number. After playing to four straight "overs," though, I think this Game 6 sets up as more of a "duel." We have the Game 1 starting pitchers squaring off here and that's significant. Max Fried has a 2.65 ERA and 18 K's over 17 playoff innings of work so far, while Walker Buehler has gone 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 48 career playoff innings for the Dodgers. The pick: Note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after allowing seven or more runs in a three runs or greater loss in its previous outing, while the Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to four or more consecutive "overs." This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Braves/Dodgers. |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: While the first five games of this series have gone "under" the number, I think that Game 6 is going to fly over the total sooner, rather than later. Both teams have struggled at the plate and each of these starters has been sharp so far in the playoffs. It would be "easy" to write a convincing argument for another "under," but the value has now swung the other way. The pick: As note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to four or more straight "unders," while also coming off a victory in its previous outing, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 21 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect these offenses to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Astros/Rays. |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The first three games of this series have fallen "under" the number, but all signs point to Game 4 going "over." The Astros have their backs against the wall, but I don't expect them to go down quietly in this series. The Rays are still averaging 4.2 RPG and hitting 1.9 home runs per contest in the playoffs. And that's bad news for Astros' veteran starter Zack Greinke, who is a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 18 playoff starts. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 for the Rays in the playoffs, despite a 4.05 ERA. The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more losses in a row. Expect these two talented offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Astros. |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's 10-5 win for the Astros, I expect much more of a duel here in Game 2. Framber Valdez (3-5, 3.57 ERA) gave up only lfive home runs over 70 2/3's innings of work in the regular season. He came in on relief of Zack Greinke during his team's 4-1 win over the Twins and delivered five scoreless frames. The pick: Sean Manaea comes in fresh for the A's, as he did not throw in the series win over the White Sox. Manaea only allowed seven home runs over 54 innings of work, while striking out 45 this year. Note as well that the A's have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Athletics. |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 105 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are two of the top pitchers in the entire league. Each comes in off a decent season and both have performed well over their last five games. Despite that though, I think that these two powerful and hungry line-ups will combine to push this total over this low number once it's all said and done. The Rays dominated the regular season series 8-2, but that just adds big incentive for this now healthy Yankees slugging line-up to get revenge. In my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" from a situational stand point. The pick: It also sets up great from an O/U ATS/stats stand-point as well, as note that New York has seen the total go "over" in six of its last seven on the road, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 when playing with two or more days of rest. Expect this one to blast past the total in the middle frames! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Yanks/Rays. |
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09-22-20 | A's v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers enter this series with the best record in baseball at 38-16. LA has already clinched a playoff spot and so too has San Diego, which sits right behind it at 34-20. The Dodgers still haven't clinched the division though. Oakland has also clinched a playoff spot but it still hasn't earned the AL West crown yet at 33-20. Houston is at 27-26, so it's just a matter of time now before the A's earn that spot. But turning to this interesting interleague matchup...we have Frankie Montas of the A's going up against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Montas is just 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA, who returns from a stint on the paternity list. Montas has lost four straight and he draws a tough matchup here, but he has the track record and pedigree to bounce back. He was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA last season and he has this game and one more to get back on track before the playoffs start. May is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA and he most recently worked five innings of relief in a 7-5 win over the Padres on Wednesday. May has an even better 2.57 ERA at home and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that he can't carry over his recent form into this one as well. The pick: Instead of a slug-fest in the opener of this series, I think the stage is set for a pitchers duel. Expect these division leaders to battle to a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER A's/Dodgers. |
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09-16-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in yesterday's 20-6 victory for the Yanks. In these team's previous series vs. each other in Buffalo two of three went "under" the number and I expect that after yesterday's big explosion, that we're going to see much more of a "duel" on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.60 ERA), who faced the Yanks last Wednesday and who allowed two runs over four innings. Overall Roark is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts vs. New York. The pick: He'll be opposed by Yanks' ace Gerritt Cole (5-3, 3.20) who comes in off a complete game effort vs. the Orioles, halting a three-game losing streak, while going on to strike out nine. Finally note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 18 of its last 26 after scoring 20 or more runs in a victory vs. an opponent in its previous outing. I expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Yanks. |
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09-15-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have only met in one other series, just last week and the Jays took two of three. The Yanks won the final game of that series and they just finished beating the Orioles in four straight, including outscoring them 23-3 in the process. The pick: Taijuan Walker and Deivi Garcia have both been excellent for the most part in their limited time for their teams, but the problem is is that these talented hitting line-ups "saw" them just last week and I think that'll lead to trouble the second time around. While two of three fell "under" in their first series against each other, I believe that this first game in New York definitely sets up as a "slug-fest." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jays/Yankees. |
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09-12-20 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves have been crushing the ball of late and while they've seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, including the first two of this series, I think Saturday's contest finally sets up as a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) who has been sharp in the time that he's been given, posting 18 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. The pick: The home side counters with Patrick Corbrin (2-4, 4.34 ERA), who is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA in all of his games thrown in the Nation's capital. He faced the Braves last month and got rocked for five runs over five innings, only the second time in eight starts that he's allowed more than five runs. I like Corbin to bounce back here at home and I thikn that Andreson maintains his recent form as well. Additionally note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs." This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Braves/Nationals. |
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09-11-20 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 11 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some fairly high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that Friday's game sets up as more of a lower-scoring "under." The Braves go with Josh Tomlin (2-2, 3.77 ERA), who is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Nationals. The pick: Erick Fedde (1-3, 5.29) gets the call for the home side and he's not fared as well against his opponent in the past. I'll point out though that the Nationals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after allowing seven or more runs in a home loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I think this one sneaks "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Braves/Nats. |
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09-10-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over," but I think that the finale will end in a lower-scoring "under." The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who has been sharp for sure this season and who has faced the D-Backs one other time. May has a big opportunity to pad his stats here vs. a dejected Arizona side which has lost five in a row and is officially eliminated from playoff contention. The pick: The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 8.44) who makes his second start since returning from the ten-day DL. Bumgarner is obviously not happy at all with the way things have unfolded this year, the veteran though will look to personally close out strong as he prepares for next season. Bumgarner enters having gone 15-14 with a sharp 2.72 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Dodgers. I think this is a great "situational" play. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs. |
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09-09-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game had 19 runs scored, I believe that Wednesday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.50 ERA) who threw six scoreless vs. these very D-Backs just last week. Overall Kershaw is a spectacular 18-10 with a 2.69 ERA in 35 starts vs. Arizona. The pick: Taylor Clarke (1-0, 2.96) counters for the D-Backs and in six career appearances vs. the Dodgers he's a pedestrian 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. I'll point out though that Arizona has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss to an opponent in its previous outing. I think Arizona's issues at the plate once again come back to haunt it here. Expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Dodgers/D-Backs. |
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09-08-20 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither team has been plating a lot of runs of late, I think that Tuesday's contest definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" finally. Cleveland won 5-2 yesterday and it's out to keep the foot on the gas with less than three weeks to go in the regular season. KC hands the ball to Jakob Junis (0-1, 4.32 ERA), while the Tribe go with Triston McKenzie (2-0, 1.69). Junis lost to the Indians last Wednesday, allowing two runs over four innings. McKenzie threw six shutout frames throwing opposite Junis, but regression is imminent for both of these over-acheiving young hurlers in my opinion. The pick: Kansas City has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring two or less runs and losing by three or more runs in its previous outing. I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Royals/Indians. |
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09-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Considering the two gas cans on the mound this afternoon, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday and each will be motivated to get back into the winners circle. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his first start of the year after a positive Covid 19 test. Urena will be a short leash today. The pick: Ian Anderson (0-0, 2.25) has a 14:3 K:BB over his first 12 innings of work, but clearly the sample size is still much too small for the Braves' rookie. I'll point out as well that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs in a victory in its previous outing. I expect both pitchers to get the hook early and as such, all signs point to the "over" as the correct call here. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Marlins/Braves. |
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09-06-20 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston won 9-8 yesterday, but I think Sunday's total will sneak "under" once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (1-4, 7.34 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits with four strikes over 3.1 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on Tuesday. 36 of his 48 pitches were thrown for a strike and I like Ray to continue his progression in this favorable matchup. The pick: The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (0-2, 16.20), who makes his first start for the Red Sox after being claimed off waivers from San Fran. Triggs has faced Toronto twice in his career and gone 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA over four innings of work. I'll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. This number is a tad high. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox. |
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09-05-20 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's contest snuck "over" the number late (I had the "under" unfortunately), but I think that Saturday's contest will indeed stay below the posted number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (3-2, 3.14 ERA) who enters off an outing to forget vs. the Twins, allowing four runs (just two earned) while striking out eight over five innings. Note though that over his last three starts Giolito has allowed two earned runs while striking out 34 over 21 innings. The pick: Cris Bubic (0-4, 5.46) comes off his best start of the year, allowing two earned runs and striking out eight over 5.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. these very White Sox. Over 28 frames of work Bubic now sports a respectable 27:12 K:BB this season and I expect him to build off his last outing. With these two starters battling deep, this total goes "under" once it's all said and done. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. |
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09-04-20 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's contest between these clubs flew well "over" the number in the ChiSox 11-6 victory, but I think that Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors go with Dane Dunning (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who faced these very Royals in his last outing, allowing one walk, no hits while striking out seven over five scoreless frames, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Over two starts Dunning sas a 14:2 K:BB and I think he keeps the momentum rolling here. The pick: The home side counters with Brady Singer (1-3, 5.19), who allowed three runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision vs. these very White Sox last weekend. Dunning owns a decent 31:14 K:BB over 34.2 innings of work. I think these two young but hungry capable starters go into the latter frames and I believe that's going to help in driving this total "under" by the end of the night. The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. |
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09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston held on for a 2-1 win last night, but I think that the finale of this series sets up as more of a slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.93 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lynn has been sharp overall, but I don't think his early sparkling numbers are sustainable and regression is imminent again here in my opinion. The pick: The home side counters with Zack Greinke (2-0, 2.68), who has been sharp in his limited time. I'll point out though that Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine home games after allowing one or less runs in a victory in its previous outing. I think this number is low, play the over. The is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rangers/Astros. |
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09-02-20 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series stayed under the number, but I believe the third will find a way to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.40 ERA) gets the call after coming off the IL for the visitors tonight. Morton has been poor this year with a 1.50 WHIP and I think he'll get the hook early here as well vs. this determined home side. The pick: Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.66) gets the call for New York and he most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note though that the Yankees have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten home games after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Yanks. |
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09-01-20 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's series opener flew over the number in the White Sox come from behind 8-5 win, but I expect a much lower-scoring "duel" here between White Sox' ace Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.70 ERA) and Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00). Pineda finally makes his return after a 60 game suspension and he'll be given a full work load right out of the gates. Pineda threw a 70 pitch simulation recently and has been given the green light. Before his suspension he was one of the most consistent in the league and I think the time off for his arm will be huge moving forward. The pick: Keuchel gave up two runs over six innings while also striking out seven in a victory last time out and there's no reason not to believe that the southpaw won't carry that momentum over here. Finally note that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 home games after allowing eight or more runs in a home loss in its previous outing. This number is a little high. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER WhiteSox/Twins. |
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08-30-20 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 10 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game flew well over the number in LA's 16-3 victory, but I expect this one to stay under once it's all said and done. Griffin Canning (0-3, 4.88 ERA) will be eager to notch his first victory of the year here for the home side. Note that Canning has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, as he was a sharp 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA at home last year. The pick: Justin Dunn (2-1, 5.57) gets the nod for the home side and he enters off a gem vs. the Rangers on Sunday, allowing one hit and striking out six over six scoreless in the victory. Finally note that the M's have seen the total go under the number in 18 of their last 26 after allowing 15 or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Mariners/Angels. |
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08-29-20 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's high-scoring affair, I'm expecting much more a duel in the finale of this interleague contest. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.71 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out four over four innings in a setback to the Tigers on Sunday. Carrasco has a 35:15 K:BB and the veteran will look to bounce back here after a couple of pedestria outings. The pick: Joe Flaherty (2-0, 3.12) gets the nod for the hom eside and he most recently struck out three Royals over five scoreless to pick up his second win of the season on Monday. Last year Flaherty was 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and now the hard-throwing right-hander has been given the green light to go deep into this contest. Finally note that St. Louis has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 13 or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. This one has "duel" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Indians/Cardinals. |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game ended in a 10-3 win over the A's and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here in the finale of this series on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (3-1, 5.81 ERA) who earned a win over the Angels by allowing three runs over 5.1 innings. It was the third time Fiers had the advantage of facing the Angels this year and it was his first win over them. Fiers enters with a poor 5.81 ERA and ballooned 1.55 WHIP. The pick: The home side counters with the volatile Kolby Allard (0-2, 7.82) who allowed four runs off five hits in a loss to the Mariners on Friday, unable to even get out of the first inning. Previous to that he conceded six runs in three innings to the Rockies. Note as well that Texas has interestingly seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. Look for these starters to get chased early and expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER A's/Rangers. |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game went "under" the number, all signs point to Tuesday's contest going well "over." The visitors hand the ball to the erratic German Marquez (2-4, 4.38) who allowed ten earned runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Thursday. That's his second straight loss. The pick: The home side counters with the volatile Alex Young (1-1, 4.50) who is in the rotation due to the injury to Madison Bumgarner. So far over 8.1 innings as a starter, Young has conceded three home runs. Note that Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 as well after scoring two runs or less in a loss at home in its previous outing. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rockies/D-Backs. |
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08-24-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game "pushed" with the 9 total, I believe that Monday afternoon's game sets up as a "slug-fest." The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Tanner Roark (2-1, 4.76 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits over five innings in a victory over the lowly Orioles on Wednesday. Through four starts Roark enters with a pedestrian 15:10 K:BB and poor 1.71 WHIP. The pick: Blake Snell (2-0, 3.00) gets the nod for the home side and while he's been sharp early, I believe the southpaw is poised for regression. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total soar over the number in seven of its last ten after a one run victory and in which it scored five or more runs in. This number is a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Jays/Rays. |
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08-23-20 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Pirates in their upset yesterday and they went on to win in blowout fashion. Today though I think this contest will sneak "under" the number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Corbin Burnes (0-0, 3.00 ERA) who went five innings vs. the Twins last time out, allowing one run off one hit and striking out five in the unfortunate no-decision. The pick: JT Brubaker (0-0, 4.91) conceded three runs off three hits over three innings vs. the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday, also receiving a no-decision. So far the rookie has a 10:6 K:BB and I think he'll be able to keep the Brewers off balance here. Additionally note that the Pirates have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 11 after scoring ten or more runs in their previous game. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Brewers/Pirates. |
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08-22-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game ended with an 8-5 win for Boston and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well once the dust settles on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Martin Perez (2-3, 4.07 ERA) who enters off a loss after allowing three runs over three innings vs. the Yanks on Monday. Perez enters with a 17:14 K:BB over 24.1 innings of work. NOte that he's 4-5 with a ballooned 5.19 ERA in ten starts vs. Baltimore as well. The pick: Alex Cobb (1-2, 3.76) was shelled for five runs off eight hits over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Jays on Monday. After a nine-game losing streak though, the Red Sox are starting to "rake" and I think Cobb will once again have difficulties today vs. this team that's clearly seeing the ball really well right now. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST on the OVER Red Sox/Orioles. |
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08-20-20 | Diamondbacks v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 102 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played to a lower-scoring under in the A's 4-1 win last night and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well. The D-Backs hand the ball to Alex Young (1-0, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out five in an unfortunate no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. With Mad-Bum still sidelined with inury, I like Young to continue to make the most of his opportunity. The pick: The home side counters with Sean Manaea (0-2, 7.65) who is slowly getting back into shape, coming off his best start of the year so far, allowing three runs (two earned) off three hits while striking out five in a no-decision to the Giants on Saturday. I like Manaea to also continue his progression here. I expect these two hungry starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER D-Backs/A's. |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling to find consistency at the starting pitchers position, but after yesterday's 8-7 win for the Jays, I expect a much lower-scoring duel on Wednesday. These two starters won't be lacking for motivation. The Jays' Tanner Roark (1-1, 6.00 ERA) has struggled against the Orioles in the past. The same can be said of Tommy Milone (1-2, 4.00) and the Jays. Despite that though, a couple of very strong O/U trends leads me to believe this one will indeed fall "under." The pick: As note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of its last 11 after scoring eight or more runs in a victory in its previous outing, while the O's have seen the total dip under in seven of their last nine after posting 15 or more runs combined with a team in their previous outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Jays/Orioles. |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played a four-game series at the start of August and they split. Snell threw opposite Tanaka back on August 8th and he was under a pitch count at the time...he looked pretty good though, he went three scoreless, allowing no hits and two walks while striking out five. Snell is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA this year so far, posting his first win of the season last time out, allowing four hits and going five scoreless in Boston, striking out six and walking none. And so with that stellar performance, Snell has been cleared to return to normal starter activity tonight. The pick: Tanaka was in a similar boat as Snell coming into the season...started on the IL because of concussion protocol after taking a come-back to the head in his final Spring tune-up. He threw 69 pitches opposite Snell and went five scoreless, allowing one hit, no walks and he also struck out five. And then in his last start Tanaka allowed two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Braves. They weren't even close to 100% when they squared off on August 8th...they've both been cleared for full duties and they're each coming off a strong start. I think recent form is important. I think the UNDER is definitely the correct call in this one. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/Yanks. |
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08-16-20 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Both games of yesterday's double-header went "under" the number. Double-headers this year only go seven innings, but despite that, I still think that the finale of this AL series sets up as a "slug-fest." Brady Singer (1-1, 4.50 ERA) earned a loss in his MLB debut by allowing four runs over five innings to the ChiSox, before then allowing two runs over five innings in a win over these very Twins last Friday. Now that Singer is on the road though, I think the rookie takes a predictable step back here, especially now that the Twins' have had a look at him. The pick: Randy Dobnak (3-1, 0.90) has so far been "lights out" for the Twins, most recently allowing one run in a win over Milwaukee. Are these numbers sustainable? Dobnak is throwing well right now, but regression also seems imminent to me and I expect that downward trend to start tonight. Additionally note that the Twins have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 home games after two or more straight "unders." This number is a little low. This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST on the OVER Royals/Twins. |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams played to a lower-scoring "under" last night, with the Rangers coming out on top 3-2. While tonight's game could see a little more offense, I do still think that this number is much too high. Kyle Gibson (0-2, 4.11 ERA) gave up four runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Monday. In his previous start he struck out nine in an unfortunate setback. The veteran was 13-7 with respectable 4.14 ERA for the Twins in 2019. The pick: German Marquez (2-2, 2.08) gets the call for the home side and he allowed five runs (just two earned) over seven innings in a loss to the Mariners as well. Marquez still owns a sharp 27:6 K:BB and there's no reason not to think that he won't be able to carry over that progression here. I expect these two competent starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/Rockies. |
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08-12-20 | Marlins v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 14-11 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers have a lot of talent and potential, but I think each will get the hook early on Wednesday night and I believe that'll lead to this total flying over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Jordan Yamamoto (0-0, 9.00 ERA) allowed four runs off six hits, including two dingers, in a fortunate no-decision vs. the O's on Thursday. Last year he was 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA and I think he'll struggle in this difficult matchup. The pick: Nate Pearson (0-0, 2.70) gets the call for the Jays and he most recently allowed three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Thursday. Pearson has been decent over his first two MLB starts, but regression at some point does seem imminent. The sample size is simply too small still and I'm unconvinced Pearson can keep up these numbers for much longer. As stated off the top, I look for both pitchers to get the hook early and I look for that to help in seeing this total eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST DESTRUCTION on the OVER Fish/Jays. |
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08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these starters has been decent and each of these clubs has struggled somewhat with offensive consistency. Despite that though, I think this one sets up as a classic "slug-fest." Jon Lester gets the call for Chicago (1-0, 0.82 ERA) and he's allowed just one run over two starts. If Lester had one weakness last season though it was definitely his play on the road, where he was only 5-6 with a 4.90 ERA. Regression seems imminent for the over-acheiving veteran hurler. The pick: The home side counters with Adam Plutko, who makes a spot start here in place of Clevinger, who is placed on the 14 Day Covid list for breaking protocol. Plutko allowed two runs over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Tuesday, but I think that being thrust into the spot-light here is not going to be conducive in registering a decent outing. When you add it up, this number is just a little low, as I look for these two hungry clubs to eclipse sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Cubs/Indians. |
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08-10-20 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington's game vs. the Orioles was suspended yesterday after the seventh innings, a 5-2 Baltimore win. The Mets were also involved in a very low-scoring affair yesterday, as they beat Miami 4-2 with their ace Jacob deGrom on the mound. While yesterday's games both went "under" for these teams, I think that Monday's contest sets up more as an offensive affair. The pick: Patrick Corbin allowed three runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a win over these very Mets last Tuesday. Corbin was rock solid last year, but note he had a rather pedestrian 4.48 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18) who was rocked for five runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to these very Nationals last Tuesday. Additionally note that New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after allowing two runs or less in a victory. This number is a little low in my opinion. This is a 10* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER on the Nats/Mets. |
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08-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's high-scoring 8-4 Yanks win, I'm expecting much more of a "duel" in the finale of this three game set. James Paxton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, who comes off a pair of poor starts to the 2020 campaign. Paxton had surgery in February and it's caused a decrease in velocity on his fast ball, which has led to a pair of poor outings. The veteran should improve with each outing though, as his track and pedigree definitely point to a comeback effort here sooner, rather than later. The pick: Charlie Morton (1-1, 8.00) gets the call for the visitors and he comes off his first win of the year, allowing one run off five hits with no walks and five K's over six innings vs. the Reds on Tuesday. After a shaky first outing, Morton definitely returned to the form which saw him go 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA last season. I'm banking on Morton continuing his progression and I absolutely expect Paxton to be much better here. With these two starters battling deep, look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Yanks/Rays. |
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08-08-20 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of confirmed "gas cans" go head to head in this NL matchup on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I'm expecting runs to be plentiful. Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 0.00 ERA) went five scoreless in his debut vs. the toothless Tigers last Sunday. DeSclafani was only 3-5 with a 4.28 ERA on the road and I believe he'll struggle here as well in this difficult road venue. The pick: Brett Anderson (0-0, 6.00) goes for the Brewers and he most recently allowed two runs over three innings to the White Sox on Monday. So far Anderson has struggled with consistency in the early going and all signs point to this trend continuing here. I believe these starters get the hook early and that will ultimately help in contributing to this total flying over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Reds/Brewers. |
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08-07-20 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes, Blake Snell has struggled to start this season a bit, but he's always been at his best vs. the Yankees at home, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts opposed in friendly confines. The problem for Tampa here is that it's offense has been downright terrible, hitting a collective .211 with an on-base percentage of only .303. The pick: The Yanks Masahiro Tanaka is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA this year, but note that he's pretty much dominated the Rays throughout his career by going 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 starts opposed, including 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA in his last eight vvs. them. I look for these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Yanks/Rays. |
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08-06-20 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 103 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Two veteran pitchers who have been accustomed to success over their careers, but who have struggled somewhat to open this abbreviated season, collide in this AL matchup on Thursday afternoon and suffice it to say, I'm expecting this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Mike Minor (0-2, 5.91 ERA) gets the nod for the Rangers and he most recently got rocked for six runs off nine hits in a loss to the Giants on Friday. Over 10.2 innings of work Minor now has a poor 1.41 WHIP. The pick: The A's counter with Mike Fiers (0-0, 5.40) who allowed two runs off four hits and one walk over six frames in a no-decision vs. the soft-hitting Mariners on Saturday, also striking out three. Previous to that Fiers was rocked for four runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Angels. These two pitchers have seen better days and I think they'll each "get the hook" early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total over the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rangers/A's. |
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08-05-20 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series shifts from Cincinnati to Cleveland for two more. Despite what happens on Tuesday in Cincinnati, I expect these two starting "studs" to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. Luis Castillo (0-1, 4.50 ERA) has faced the Tigers twice already this year and in one game he was downright filthy and in the other he got shelled. Castillo was 15-8 with 3.40 ERA last year and he was especially dominant on the road by going 7-1 with a 3.88 ERA (also 12-3 with a 3.53 ERA in all "night" games.) The pick: Mike Clevinger (0-1, 4.91) is coming off back-to-back tough outings, which is uncharacteristic for the Indians' hard-throwing right-hander. Clevinger was 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA last year and he was particularly awesome at home by going 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA. With these two starters expected to throw deep, I look for this total to stay under. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Reds/Indians. |
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08-04-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have plenty of "pop" in their respective lineups, but I believe that these hungry starting pitchers will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries once it's all said and done. Matt Shoemaker (0-0, 1.50 ERA) who comes in extra rested after the Jays' series with the Phillies was postponed over the weekend. Shoemaker looked brilliant in his season debut, holding the Rays to one run off three hits over six frames, and I don't have any reason not to believe that the veteran won't carry that momentum over here as well. The pick: Max Fried (1-0, 2.31) get the nod for the home side and he was even better than his counterpart in his opener, holding the Rays to one run off three hits while striking out seven over seven innings. These two pitchers already have a similar opponent and each looked brilliant (note as well that Fried was a sharp 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA at home last season as well.) This one has "duel" written all over it. Play the under. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Jays/Braves. |
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07-31-20 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rays "ace" continues to struggle. Blake Snell (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA last year and he'd allow three hits and two walks while striking out five in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Sunday. Note that he was particularly ineffective on the road as well last season, going just 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA. The pick: Alex Cobb (1-0, 1.69) is a late fill in here and while he did well with a victory over the Red Sox on Saturday in his season debut, I still think the book is out on the veteran, who previously hadn't won a game since 2018. Cobb was 0-2 with a 10.95 ERA last year and I think that regression is definitely imminent in this difficult second matchup. I am anticipating that each starter will get chased early which will help tremendously in pushing this total over the number by the end of the night. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rays/Orioles. |
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07-29-20 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox need to wake up and start living up to their expected potential and they'll be eager to bounce back after a listless 4-3 loss yesterday. While that game stayed "under" the number, all signs point to this one finally flying over as the game comes down the stretch in my opinion. Lucas Giolito (0-1, 17.18 ERA) was rocked for seven runs off six hits with three walks over three innings in an opening day loss to the Twins on Friday. Things certainly aren't going to get any easier for Giolito here eitehr facing this The pick: Zach Plesac (0-0, 0.00) gets the nod for the home side. Last year he was 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA. Plesac did enough in the short spring tune up to get a shot in the rotation, but note that he had a 4.56 ERA in all "night" contests a year ago. I look for these pitchers to get the hook early and I expect these line-ups to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER White Sox/Indians. |
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07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite what happens on Monday night between these two clubs, I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks on Tuesday night, as I'm not convinced either starter will last long before getting the hook. ATL turns to Kyle Wright, who was 0-3 with an 8.69 ERA last year and who enters having had a mediocre spring tune-up, in which he arrived to the team late. Note that he was particularly poor after the All Star Break last year as well, posting a 13.85 ERA. The pick: The home side counters with Yonny Chrinos, who was 9-5 with a 3.85 ERA last year. Chirinos though also arrived to camp late due to a positive COVID-19 test. While he's been given the green light, clearly he'll be on a leash and yanked quickly if he starts to run out of gas. I look for these two "gas cans" to exit early and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Braves/Rays. |
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07-26-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rays evened up this series with a 4-1 victory last night, but neither side can be too happy yet with how it's performed at the plate in the early going. Tampa had just five hits for the second straight game yesterday. Tampa ace was 0-1 with a 2.51 ERA in three starts vs. the Jays last year. The pick: Thomas Hatch is expected to make his debut for the Jays this afternoon. Toronto will then make a quick turn around for a series vs. the Washington Nationals. Note as well that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten AL road games after losing and scoring one run or less in the process. Look for these two offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Jays/Rays. |
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07-24-20 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -114 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these AL teams are expected to compete and possibly make the playoffs this season. Each is loaded with talented hitters, but I think that these two studs on the mound will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Jose Berrios gets the nod for the Twins and he was 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA last year. Berrios had a great camp and there's no reason not to believe that he can't bring the smoke here on Opening night. The pick:Lucas Giolito was 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA last year. In 2018 he was 10-13 with a 6.13 ERA. That's a huge improvement and there's no doubt the White Sox expect him to continue to develop this year as well. Teams don't have the luxury to "get up to speed," everyone needs to hit the ground running and establish something early. I believe these two starting pitchers battle deep and as such, look for this one to stay well below the number once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Twins/White Sox. |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Two unbelievable pitchers face a couple of hard-hitting line-ups. Both Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have incredible seasonal numbers, in the playoffs and vs. their respective opponents. It wouldn't be difficult to write a play on the "under" based entirely around their stats/numbers. But I think these two starters can still "shine" in this contest, and this total can still eclipse this very low-number. The pick: Based primarily around the fact that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten when the total in the contest is set at 7 or lower, while Houston has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 17 after allowing four runs or less in four straight games. With time to re-focus, I believe it'll be these hard-hitting line-ups which become the main story-lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Nationals/Astros. |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston lost 7-0 in Game 1, before then rebounding with a 3-2 extra innings effort in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I'm finally expecting a higher-scoring game here. The Astros were 47-26 on the road this year, but they lost both road games to the Rays. Clearly they'll be out to end that trend. Gerrit Cole gets the nod for the visitors, while Louis Severino toes the slab for the home side. The pitchers: Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) has been exceptional this season and so far in the playoffs, but I think he finally takes a step back here. Note that he's 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Yanks. Severino (1-1, 1.50) is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" in 35 of its last 60 after two or more consecutive home games, while New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 21 after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. The Yanks have to be thrilled with the split they earned over the first two games and now they're in the drivers seat. I think this one creeps over this tiny number once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Astros/Yankees. |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 58 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of the AL Wildcard plays the Astros in Houston this weekend in the ALDS. Both of these starters come into this game “hot” and I expect each to throw deep. Charlie Morton gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Sean Manaea. The pitchers: Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA in seven postseason appearances. Morton appeared in the All Star Game this year. Manaea (0-0, 1.21) returned from a 12 month absence due to a torn labrum in September and since then he’s been nearly untouchable, winning both home starts with a 2.13 ERA. The pick: Note that Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa. Morton went 1-0 with a minuscule 0.68 ERA in two starts vs. the A’s this year (note that Morton owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts at Oakland in his career as well.) This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/A’s. |
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09-27-19 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither starter has done well this year and I believe each will struggle in this match-up as well. The visitors hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. The pitchers: Lopez (5-8, 4.96 ERA) is an atrocious 2-5 with a 7.27 ERA on the road this year. Velasquez (7-8, 4.76) was most recently shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians on Sunday. The pick: The Phillies are out of playoff contention and they’re now just 79-80 on the year. Philadelphia will be hungry to stop its six game slide and I expect a big day at the plate from both teams here, as Miami would love nothing more than to kick the home side while its down. Facing these two suspect starting pitchers, everything definitely points to these line-ups being the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the over. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Marlins/Phillies. |
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09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -118 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry hurlers. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede have had poor campaigns, but each will be eager to try and pad their stats with a strong performance while they can. The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) comes back from injury and he worked two innings vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. He’s 1-1 vs. San Fran this year and a sharp 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts for his career. Beede (5-10, 5.23) has been roughed up twice by the Rockies this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home this season (3.99 ERA at home, compared to 6.28 on the road.) The pick: This series will conclude the Rockies road campaign. The Giants are paying respects to manager Bruce Bochy before he retires. Yesterday’s contest ended 2-1 and I anticipate another low-scoring affair here. 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rockies/Giants. |
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09-25-19 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Michael Wacha, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly. The pitchers: Wacha (6-7, 4.63 ERA) has been decent of late, but note that he’s a terrible 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this season. Kelly (12-14, 4.31) has been decent of late as well, but he’s just 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA in his last five day home games. The pick: While yesterday’s game went well under the number (3-2 D-Backs in extra frames), Wednesday afternoon’s contest definitely sets up as more of a slugfest in my opinion (note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 38 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Arizona has seen the total soar over the number in 18 of its last 28 vs. teams with winning records.) Everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Cards/D-Backs. |
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09-24-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak above the posted number. The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Noah Syndergaard. Miami won 8-4 last night, pushing the Mets five games behind the Brewers in the wild card race. New York is playing for its playoff life, while the Fish are looking to deliver the final nail in the coffin. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as a “slug-fest.” The pitchers: Alcantara (5-14, 4.00 ERA) most recently was rocked for five run over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Wednesday. Syndergaard (10-8, 4.22) was most recently shelled for four runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Rockies on Wednesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog of +200 or higher, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 as a -200 favorite or higher. This number is low considering all of the above factors. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER Marlins/Mets. |
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09-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Two competent starters who have had more difficult than expected seasons collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I believe each will work deep into this one. And as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Blake Snell. The pitchers: Chacin (3-11, 5.66 ERA) has struggled vs. the Rays throughout his career, but he enters off a decent start and I look for the veteran to carry that momentum over here. Snell (6-7, 4.19) is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career starts vs. Boston. The pick: The Red Sox have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rays are still in a fight for the Wild card. But in this contest, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Red Sox/Rays. |
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09-20-19 | Rangers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the home side counters with Mike Fiers. The pitchers: Minor (13-9, 3.33 ERA) has pitched four times in Oakland in his career and he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA. Fiers (14-4, 4.09) is 8-1 in Oakland this year, and 12-3 at the Coliseum for his career. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year when on the road and the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, 17 of 21 games that it’s played on a “Friday” this year (does that matter tonight? Well..it doesn’t hurt!) This number is indeed a bit high in my opinion, play the under. 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/As. |
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09-19-19 | Padres v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall. The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday. Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars. The pick: After yesterday’s “duel,” the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a “slug-fest” on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers. |
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09-18-19 | Royals v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither starter instils a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is too high. These teams went “under” the number last night as well and all signs point to another lower-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. The offensively challenged visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey. The pitchers: Duffy (6-6, 4.55 ERA) enters throwing his best of the entire season, off back-to-back gems by allowing just two runs and six hits over 12 frames. Bailey (13-8, 4.76) started the season on the Royals roster, and since coming over to Oakland he’s gone 6-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 starts. He’s 1-0 with 4.50 ERA lifetime vs. KC. The pick: The A’s have a two game lead over Tampa and 2.5 game lead over Cleveland for the AL Wildcard. Expect these ex-teammates to go deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under KC/As. |
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09-17-19 | Mariners v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 104 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither starting pitchers instills much confidence, I still believe this number is too high. The visitors go with Marco Gonzales, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller. The pitchers: Gonzales (15-11, 4.30 ERA) gave up two runs over seven innings in a 5-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday. Keller (1-4, 8.29) has clearly struggled in his rookie year, but there’s no question that he’s been much worse on the road (11.14 ERA), than at home (4.16.) The pick: Both teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but the numbers point otherwise in this particular interleague contest, as note that Seattle has in fact seen the total dip under in nine of 15 interleague games this season, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total go under in four of five after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high. *10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER M’s/Pirates. |
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09-16-19 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played to higher-scoring slug-feats on Sunday, but I believe that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The visitors go with Reynaldo Lopez, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Lopez (9-13, 5.35 ERA) is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts vs. the Twins. Berrios (12-8, 3.63) is the difference maker for me here, as he’s 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the White Sox, including 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four outings this year. The pick: Minnesota took two of three from the Indians and with a sweep of the Sox on its final home stand, it can wrap up the division title. I have a hard time seeing Chicago putting many runs on the board today and as a result, look for this total to stay well under the number. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under White Sox/Twins. |
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09-15-19 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in this AL contest on Sunday afternoon and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors go with Randy Dobnak, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. The pitchers: Dobnak (0-1, 2.25 ERA) makes a spot start here for Jose Berrios. He’s done decently already vs. the Indians on two occasions this year, but that was then and this is now. I think the rookie takes a predictable step back today in this pressure filled afternoon contest. Bieber (14-7, 3.17) is 3-0 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Twins. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Bieber, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. The pick: Cleveland lost both games of yesterday’s double-header and its bid for a fourth consecutive AL Central title is in jeopardy. The Twins on the other hand are inching closer to their first division title since 2010. In my opinion, this one sets up as a high-scoring “slug-fest” on Sunday afternoon. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the over Twins/Tribe. |
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09-14-19 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a shade low. The visitors go with Robert Dugger, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Dugger (0-2, 4.29 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, having allowed 11 walks in 21 frames of work thus far. Bumgarner (9-8, 3.77) most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Miami earlier in the year. The pick: The Giants won 1-0 last night, but I expect much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday (note as well that the numbers back us up, as Miami has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 35 vs. southpaws this season already, while SF has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after shutting out it opponent in its last game. This number is low. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on on the over Marlins/Giants. |
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08-28-19 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Astros in their complete destruction of the Rays last night and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight. Perhaps not so lop-sided this time around though. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Yarbrough, while the home side counters with Gerrit Cole. The pitchers: Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA) has been sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Yarbrough, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Cole (15-5, 2.75) has been brilliant over the last couple of months, going 11-0 with a 1.84 ERA. It’s VERY interesting to note though that he’s 0-2 with a 3.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa Bay. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go over in four of its last five after a win by five or more runs. This number is a little low. Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10* play |