The Bengals struggled in Browning's first start. He's gotten his feet wet now and will be better from the experience. He also expects to have Tee Higgins back, a luxury he didn't have against Baltimore. Browning, who did complete 19 of 26 passes for 227 yards against the Ravens, said this of Higgins: "Tee's one of the top receivers in the NFL. I don't think can really put into words how important he is to this offense ... there's just something that Tee brings the table being as big, as fast and having the experience he does, where it's always nice to have him and Ja'Marr on the outside." The Bengals are 15-7 against the spread their last 22 as underdogs. The Jaguars won by 3 last game and have only won one of their last 5 games by more than 10. Grab the points! **NFL GOW**

These teams met in October, at Indianapolis. The Colts won. That's not surprising given that the Titans are 0-6 on the road. The Titans are an entirely different team here at home though. They're 4-1 in games at Tennessee. They have outscored teams by an average of 24.8 to 15 here. They are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 tries as a home underdog of 3 or less. The Colts recent wins have been against bad teams. They are 5-11 against the spread in divisional play their last 16. Give me Tennessee at home! **AFC South GOY**

Boise State is peaking at the right time. UNLV is not. The Broncos are off three straight convincing wins. The Rebels just lost to San Jose State. The Spartans had nearly 500 yards of offense. San Jose State arguably deserved to be here, after beating the Rebels, but a computer broke the 3-way tie. The previous game, the Rebels allowed 344 rushing yards. Broncos are 5-2-1 against the spread last 8 tried laying points. Rebels 3-7 against the spread last 10 tries as home dogs of 3 or less. Lay the small number with the better team.

The Cowboys have been clobbering bad teams. The Seahawks aren't a bad team though and Dallas has far more trouble with better teams. Dallas is only 4-8 against the spread last 12 against winning teams. The Cowboys also have a very big game upcoming against the Eagles next week. Off their Thanksgiving Day romp and looking ahead to that game, Seattle could be overlooked. Seattle is 7-3 against the spread last 10 tries after losing 2 or more games in a row. Grab the points! ***NFC GOM***

Ridder is back and he will have learned from his time on the sideline. The Atlanta QB commented: "You get a different perspective of not only yourself but the offense as a whole. There are a lot of things where I'd like to have gone back and done better. I could've protected the ball better, but there are a lot of (instances) where I could've done things to not be in those situations, whether it's footwork or your reads or your progressions." The Falcons are 3-1 at home this season with Ridder starting. Last season's games were both decided by 3 or less and the game here at Atlanta was decided by a single point. The Saints are only 7-15-1 against the spread their last 23 as favorites, 2-5-1 as road favorites of a field goal or less. Falcons are already 2-0 within the division. Homefield will make the difference. ***NFC South GOM***

Baylor is playing for pride. Its the Bears' last game and it means a lot. West Virginia is already guaranteed a bowl. Baylor coach Dave Aranda knows that the Bears and their fans can really use a victory: "For the team, it would be a relief. It would be validation for working hard. When anything negative happens, you fight the attachment to all the negative things of the past. We're fighting that fight right now, and to get a win would be a victory over that." The Mountaineers have been road favorites four times the last few seasons. They were 1-3 against the spread. They were road favorites once this season and lost outright at Houston. Grab the points and look for the Bears to bring it! ***Big 12 GOM***

Texas needs to take care of business. No leaving anything up to anyone else. The Longhorns will punctuate a strong regular season with a statement blowout. They lost at Lubbock in Overtime last year and will get revenge from that game. Red Raiders are 2-5 against the spread last 7 tries on the road with total of 49.5 to 56. Texas is 3-0-1 against the spread last four tries at home with a total of 49.5 to 56. Longhorns are also 4-2 against the spread last six as home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, 3-1 in that role this season. Texas wins big! **REVENGE GOW**

Getting extra value with the Jets due to the QB situation. The reality is that the QB change should only help. Wilson was terrible! Boyle has something to prove. The Jets defense is better than Miami's defense. The Jets are 6-3 against the spread the last 9 times that they were off a division loss. Last meeting was decided by 5 points. Three of last 4 meetings all decided by 7 or less and the other was a big NY win. Grab the points! **AFC EAST GOW**

Motivation will play a big part. This game is bigger for the CornHuskers. Not only is it the home finale but Nebraska still needs win #6. This is the last chance. Iowa has already qualified for a bowl. With the push in their last game, the Huskers are 8-3-1 against the spread the last 12 times that they were off 2 or more consecutive losses. Iowa scores 11.3 points per road game. Nebraska scores 21.3 points per home game. Nebraska gets elusive win #6! **Eye Opener**

The Rams have their number but the Seahawks will bounce back with a big effort on Thanksgiving! Seattle has won 8 of the past 10 home meetings against San Francisco. The two losses came by an average of 6.5 points. Pete Carroll likes Geno Smith's chances of starting: “"They’re taking a look at it but they pretty much know what’s going on there. It’s just see how soon it settles down. Like I said, it’s a good sign that he’s functional so that’s not the issue, so it’s just how sore he is. He’ll make it back." SF, which has a revenge game against the Eagles on deck, is 3-2 on the road. Seattle is 4-1 at home. The 49ers might fare better in the Dec. 10th rematch but Seattle is the right way to go on Thursday. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

Detroit fans have been waiting for a long time for this. A Thanksgiving Day game where they've got a good team and where they can count on a big win. That day is here! The Lions are the real deal. The Packers are not. I've had this opinion from Day 1. This is what I said prior to Detroit's 34-20 win at Lambeau in September:

Its early but this game will likely go a long way in ultimately determining the division champion. After years of suffering, Detroit and its fans desperately want this. You can't always get what you want but in this case, the Detroit faithful will finally be rewarded. The Lions have been stockpiling talent over the years and now have a better team than the Packers. That's why they're small favorites, despite the game being played at Lambeau. You may be surprised to learn that the Lions are 10-2 ATS their last 12 divisional games. They're also 3-0 ATS their past three Thursday night games. The Lions, who already won at Arrowhead, have arguably faced stiffer competition than the Packers. They'll find a way to win this game and to seize early control of the division. ***NFC North GOY

Now the Lions get to complete the sweep in front of the entire country. Their time has come. They are 16-6 against the spread their last 22 home games. They had a 211-27 edge in rushing yards in the first meeting! As they were in September, they will be too much for the Packers to handle! ***NFC North GOM

Last week, I won with Eastern Michigan Over the total, an easy 30-27 final score against Akron. This week, I will look to fade Eastern Michigan on the road. The Eagles are only 2-4 against the spread as underdogs. Eastern Michigan, 5-1 at home but 0-5 on the road, gets outscored by an average of 28 to 13 in away games. The Bulls beat this team 50-31 last year. The Eagles want that 6th win but they won't get it. The Bulls will show they've still got some pride and close out their season with a big win. ***MAC GOW***

The Chiefs won when it really counted but the Eagles will exact a little revenge tonight. The Chiefs are only scoring 23.1 points a game this season. The Eagles score 28. The Eagles have only lost once all season. They were winning that game entering the 4th quarter and had a big edge in yards and first downs. The Chiefs have two losses and they've had a few close wins. Remember, the Eagles were ahead 27-21 entering the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl. They've been waiting for this day. They're 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times they were off a division win. This night will belong to them! ***MNF GOM***

Getting points with Seattle is a nice bonus seeing as I've got the Seahawks winning this game. The Rams are getting Stafford back but they've still got a lot of issues. They are 0-8 straight-up their last 8 November games. Stafford hasn't played in some time but Geno Smith closed out last game on a high and comes in with confidence. The Seahawks are battling San Francisco and cannot afford another loss to the Rams. They will get revenge from the Week 1 loss. ***Road Warrior***

The Bills really shot themselves in the foot last week. What were they even doing in that close a game in the first place? Rest assured, they will emerge stronger from the experience. The Bills will be a team on a mission this week. Nobody will get in their way. Not the stumbling Jets, who scored 18 combined points in losing their last 2 games. The Jets average 16 points a game, the Bills average more than 26. The Jets are 1-4 against the spread (0-5 straight-up) in five tries when the total was between 35.5 to 42. The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread (7-1 straight up) last 8 when up against an opponent with a losing record in the second half of the season. This will not be a friendly environment! Bills win big!

This game is bigger for the Red Wolves than it is the Bobcats. Texas State is already bowl eligible, for the first time in nine seasons. With a win on Saturday afternoon, Arkansas State will become bowl eligible for the first time in four seasons. Doing so against a Texas State team which lately always seems to narrowly defeat them will be extra sweet. The Red Wolves have been playing their best football the past few weeks. They lost at South Alabama last week. With an advantage in first downs, they covered the spread in that game. Before that, they'd won 2 games in a row by 10 and 20 points. The last 3 meetings have all been by 3 or less., each by Texas State. Arkansas State led 10-3 going into the 4th quarter last year but found a way to close. Not this year. It's payback time! ***Revenge GOY***

Nobody wants to take BYU these days. The Cougars have been blown out in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. Stuck on 5 wins, even most BYU fans feel that they no longer have a chance to make a bowl. And now the Cougars take on big bad Oklahoma. All of the above has already been considered and factored into the line. The line on BYU is very high and the Cougars have no pressure on them. Everyone has already counted them out. This is their home finale. They've still got that to play for. The Sooners are only 4-8 against the spread their last 12 as road favorites. They've got bigger games to look forward to. Grab all the points. ***Eye Opener***

It would have been the hottest ticket in town if these teams faced each other earlier in the season. Colorado was the talk of the league and Washington State was also red hot. Everything changed. Both teams got brought down to size. Both teams will still really want this one though. Each is anxious to get back on track. That will make for a good game. Colorado still gets the hype because of Sanders. The Cougars are at home though and are the superior team. WSU quarterback Cameron Ward took some responsibility for last week's loss after he fumbled three times and had two returned for TDS. (He also threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns.) "I feel like I've grown in ball security, especially these two years once I first got here to Washington State but it showed up again that it's something that I gotta continuously work on. Any time you put your team in a situation like I did, it's hard to fight out of, and we did. We did end up doing that. But we didn't execute enough plays as a whole to win this game." Colorado is only 2-13 its last 15 road games. Ward will clean up the fumbles tonight and he will lead his team to a win and cover! ***pac 12 GOW***

Pittsburgh being favored in game tells us a lot. The Panthers have been bad all season. Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi will have his worst year. So, what are the Panthers doing favored? Boston College is a fraud, that's why! The Eagles were exposed last week. They got outgained by a 600 to 262 yardage mark! That was against Virginia Tech - not a team like Georgia or Michican. Eagles are 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they were off a conf. loss. Narduzzi is 7-3 against the spread last 10 in November. Panthers will play their best game and salvage some price. ***ACC GOM***

Denver showed up to the wrong party. The Broncos have shown some signs of life. But their season is still done. The Bills are angry from their loss at Cincinnati. They're 4-0 straight-up at home. The Bills score 26.7 points a game. The Broncos score 21.5. The Bills allow only 17.8 points a game. The Broncos allow 28.3. Better on both sides of the ball and playing at home, Buffalo will blow out the Broncos and make a statement on National TV. ***MNF MasterClass***

If you look at the points scored and allowed, the overall numbers are pretty close. Both teams score the same amount of points. The Chargers allow about 1 more point per game. Detroit does come in fresh, as last week was a bye. The Chargers are playing their best football now though and the Lions are playing thousands of miles away from home. They were obliterated their last road game. The Charger defense has especially improved of late. They will keep rolling and pull off the upset this afternoon! ***Non-Conf GOM

Air Force just blew its undefeated season with a 23-3 loss to Army last week. Off that disappointing result and now having traveled thousands of miles, it will be hard to get up for this game. Having a big game against UNLV up next makes things even more challenging. The Warriors are off a 27-14 win and feeling better about themselves. Warriors are now 6-2-1 against the spread their last nine November games. They will provide a tough test for the Falcons tonight. ***MWC GOW

Vanderbilt has a pretty bad against the spread record this season. That's not exactly a secret. That bad record means that many bettors are sick of losing with the Commodores and that they don't trust betting on them. The books know this. Safe with the knowledge that they're still going to get South Carolina backers at any line, they can jack the line up a little higher than it really should be. That's where the value with Vanderbilt comes in. The Commodores lost by only 1 point as 19 point underdogs their last visit here. They also gave the Gamecocks a good fight last year. South Carolina only has 3 wins. Two were by 10 or less and the other was against Furman. Grab the points. ***Saturday Shocker

The line has climbed and we're getting a lot of points with a very competitive North Texas team. Since a bad loss back in Week 1, before they really got their feet on the ground, the Mean Green have been in every game. Since that Week 1 loss, their other 5 losses have all come by 8 points or less. They could easily have won some of those and are better than their record indicates. After some big wins, the Mustangs had trouble with Rice last game, winning by only 5. The Mean Green aren't as good as SMU on defense. They do score 34.8 points a game though and have shown that they can keep up with just about anyone. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 road games and that includes a 2-0 against the spread record as road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points. Overall, they are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Better yet, the Mean Green are 8-1 against the spread the past 9 times that they were off a conference loss. With a big game at Memphis on deck, SMU could be looking ahead. Give me the points! ***AAC GOY

I am grabbing the points with Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 37 points to beat Northern Illinois in their last game. They've won four of their last 6. The Broncos are also off a win. Each of their previous wins has been followed by a bad loss and a 3-game losing streak. Western Michigan is bad defensively. The Broncos allow 32.8 points a game. That's tied with Kent State for the most points allowed per game in the MAC. The Chippewas won 42-30 the last time they played here. They're 6-2 against the spread their last 8 games in November and 10-4 against the spread the last 14 times that they were underdogs. They still need to win to become bowl eligible but Western Michigan realistically gave up dreaming about a bowl weeks ago. Go CMU! ***mac GOY

Big battle in Philadelphia! This is a heated rivalry and both teams come in hot. The Eagles have the significant advantage of playing at home. They're 3-0 here. Dallas is 2-2 on the road. The home team won both meetings last year. Cowboys by 6 at Dallas. Eagles by 9 at Philadelphia. The Cowboys are good at beating on the weak and mediocre teams. The last time they played a team currently with a winning record, they got destroyed! Heck, this team even lost by 12 at Arizona! The Eagles lost a close one against a really good Jets defense but otherwise have had no such slip-ups. Last time they took on a top level team, they throttled Miami. This season's seven wins have come by an average of more than eight points. Six of the wins were by 5 or more points and all 6 came by at least a field goal. Lay the points with the Eagles! ***nfc east goy

The Frankfurt fans get treated to a good one as both these division leaders are sitting at 6-2. Two very capable offenses but only one team which combines that with a great defense. Miami allows 25.5 points per game. Kansas City allows 16.1 points per game. The Dolphins have dominated as favorites but are only 1-2 against the spread when they find themselves in the underdog role. The Chiefs thrive in these type of games. They're 10-3 against the number the past 13 times that they played a game where the pointspread ranged from plus 3 to minus 3. They'll be the first AFC team to reach seven wins this season. ***early-bird

The Bruins have been waiting for this game as they have a score to settle. Last year, the Wildcats came to Pasadena and scored a major upset. The Bruins were ranked #12 at the time and the loss effectively eliminated any chance that they might make the College Playoff. This year's Bruins are arguably better on both sides of the ball. Arizona has a reasonably good defense but UCLA's defense is on another level. The Wildcats allow 21 points a game. The Bruins allow 15 points a game. Arizona allows 342.1 yards a game. UCLA allows an average of only 277 yards a game! On offense, UCLA averages 467.4 yards a game. Arizona averages 441.4 yards. The Bruins are a dominant 7-1 against the spread the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites. Their superior defense will be the difference. ***pac 12 goy

Rutgers has been brilliant against the spread this season. But the Knights aren't built to come back. They'll fall behind the more talented and more athletic Buckeyes. Then, they'll be taken out of their game-plan. That happens to them against vastly superior opposition. They are 0-9 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread the past 9 times they were getting 10.5 to 21 points. They're 3-7 against the spread last 10 as home underdogs of 17.5 to 21 points. Ohio State is 9-0 all-time against Rutgers. No game has been closer. 49-10 last year. 52-13 last time at Rutgers. As they always do, the Buckeyes will throttle this team. ***road warrior

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road. They've won all five at home but lost all three on the road. Those road games came at Boise, Air Force and Texas. None of those are easy places to win. Off consecutive road games, the Cowboys will be thrilled to be back home! They've beaten some decent teams here, including Texas Tech, App State and Fresno State. They will have no trouble disposing of a weak CSU club. I did back the Rams against UNLV but they've followed that up by getting crushed. They won't be ready for this difficult venue! The Cowboys won by 14 points last time they hosted CSU and by 10 before that. They win big again tonight! ***mwc gom

Much of the talk will focus on the quarterbacks. That's obviously important. Things like the Steelers getting back Cameron Heyward are also very important but will be mostly glossed over. He makes their run defense better. TJ Watt said this: "He's a difference-maker. He really is. He's been doing it for a long time. A guy that's played in this matchup more than a few times himself, and anytime you can plug in a player like him, it's going to make a difference, no matter what." Back to the QB's. The Titans' rookie had a big debut but he will find things more difficult on a short week, on the road, at Pittsburgh. The Titans are only 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games against teams from the AFC North. The Steelers are 13-6-1 against the spread the past 20 times that the played with a line ranging from +3 to -3. The Steelers are also 4-0 their last four against against the Titans. They continue their Tennessee dominance tonight! ***tnf goy

This was a game which South Alabama had circled as soon as the schedule game out. The Trojans have owned the "Battle Of The Belt" rivalry for five years and the Jaguars are determined to put an end to that. This is an experience South Alabama team. They aren't where they want to be but a win here will go a long way. Don't forget that they went on the road and won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. The Jaguars score 33.5 points a game. The Trojans score 27.1. The Trojans are 0-2 against the spread when playing a home game with a total in the 42.5-49 point range. They are only 7-14 against the spread their last 21 in that situation. Last year's game was close the whole way. Give me the points! ***sun belt gom

The Colts and Saints each endured tough losses in their last game. They've now each dropped two in a row. The Saints are in better position to get back on the winning track. Indianapolis QB Minshew has turned the ball over 8 times in his past 2 starts. New Orleans Derek Carr hasn't been perfect but I'll gladly take him over Minshew. Carr: "We're getting better and we're going to be OK. But there's no more time. The emphasis is on now. We have a lot of hope and encouragement, but we do feel the pressure to get a win." Benefitting from a few extra days in between games, New Orleans responds to the pressure with a victory. *Road Warrior

On a losing streak, the Bulldogs are exactly who the Tigers want to see. Auburn has dominated the Mississippi State in games here. Last time here, the Tigers won by 9. The previous game here, the Tigers won by 23. The game before that, the Tigers won by 39. Before that, they won by 8. The common theme is Auburn home wins of greater than a touchdown. Tigers are 18-12 against the spread the last 30x they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points. Bulldogs pulled off an upset last week but are still only 1-3 ATS as underdogs. Playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season will showcase their weaknesses. Last week's scores might say otherwise but the Tigers boast the better defense. They'll win this game by more than a touchdown. *SEC GOY

Grabbing all the points with the Mountaineers. The Knights gave it everything they had last week but fell just short. That's a tough pill to swallow. Knights are 1-6 against the spread their last 7 tries as home favorites falling in the 3.5 to 10 range. They've lost four straight. WVU's last 2 road games were both decided by 3 or fewer points, a 2-point loss at Houston and a 3-point win at TCU. UCF coach Malzahn knows that the Mountaineers are going to be tough: "They are No. 7 in the country in time of possession. They run the football, they get off the field, and they are good on third down. They're No. 15 in the country in penalties, so they are a disciplined team." Let's go WVU. *Road Warrior

These teams are on different levels. Every team has had a bad game or two. Buffalo included. The Bills are still a Super Bowl contender. The Bucs can't say the same thing. Tampa is pretty solid on defense. Buffalo is even better. On the offensive side, the Bucs are terrible and the Bills are great. Buffalo averages 28.3 points. Tampa averages 17.2. Speaking of the offense, Josh Allen is 5-0 on Thursday Night Football and he's got a passer rating of 107.7 in those five games! The Bucs, 2-11 ATS their last 13 Thursday games, are only 2-7 ATS their last nine as underdogs. Bills are 10-2 straight-up their last 12 against NFC teams. They'll move to 11-2 by blowing out the Buccaneers on Thursday night. *Hot Route

Really like that the division-leading Lions got crushed yesterday. Combine that with the Packer loss and the Vikings should have a little boost. A win tonight now has them with the second most wins in the division and with the Lions looking vulnerable. San Francisco is good but not invincible. The 49'ers are off a tough loss. They're dealing wih the injuries and playing their second straight on the road. The Vikings are off a win, their second in three games. The lone loss came by a touchdown against the Chiefs. Since a bad New Year's Day loss at Lambeau, the Vikings have played eight games. None of those eight games resulted in a loss of more than 7 points. One big Minnesota win and another Minnesota win by eight points. The other six were all decided by seven or less. Give me the points.

The wins haven't come but the Broncos have shown signs of life. My feeling is that they will break through with a victory this afternoon. The Packers are off back-to-back losses and have dropped three of four. The only win was by a single point. Green Bay coach La Fleur summed it up: "It's just a lot of inconsistent play. It's been very choppy. We haven't been able to get into a consistent rhythm." Wilson has an 0-4 record (54.3 QB rating) at Lambeau but he's 3-0 with a 107.6 QB rating against the Packers at home. Broncos win. *Non-Conf GOW

The Atlanta offense is showing real signs of life and we can expect Desmond Ridder to pick up his first road win. The result was disappointing but the Falcons dominated time of possession and racked up more than 400 yards against Washington. They had a 25-12 edge in first downs and outgained the Commanders 402-193! They also statistically dominated Houston the previous game. My feeling is that Atlanta is a team on the rise and that Tampa is likely going the other way. The Bucs got dominated last game and their only home win was against the Bears. Tampa is 2-5-1 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of a field goal or less. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS its last four as a road underdog of a field goal or less. Grab the points. *NFC South GOY

The Rebels have been lining the pockets of bettors this season. That comes to an end Saturday. UNLV's ATS success has led to us getting extra line value with Colorado State. The Rams have beaten UNLV four straight times. They're 17-3 the past 20 meetings. Two of those three Rebel wins were by only a field goal. Not only is this always a difficult opponent for the Rebels but this is also a challenging scheduling spot. They just beat instate rival Nevada and they've got a big showdown against Fresno State up next. That game is a big deal due to both teams having such strong records. The Rams have won 3 of 4 and just beat Boise last game. Rebels 3-6-1 ATS last 10 as a home fav in the -7.5 to -10 range. Give me the points. *MWC GOY

Catching points with the superior team in this one. Baylor's only road game resulted in an outright win at UCF. Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of three or less and 1-4 ATS its past five when the line fell in the +3 to -3 range. Baylor is 10-5 ATS its last 15 as an underdog, 4-1 ATS its last five as a road underdog of three or less. All four covers were outright wins. Cincinnati has last four straight and is 0-4 ATS its last four when off a conference loss. Grab the points. *Eye Opener

Though I respect South Alabama, I can't pass up grabbing all the points with the visiting Golden Eagles. USM was winning into the fourth quarter of last year's game and lost by 7. With the exception of a blowout loss at Florida State, no team has beaten Southern Miss by more than 18. The other four losses have come by an average of less than 11. The Jaguars haven't impressed in their two games. They lost outright against CMU and they beat an FCS opponent, Southeastern Louisiana, by 18. That game was tied at halftime. The Jaguars only 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference victory. Give me USM.

In my opinion, the Saints are legit. They humiliated Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The 34-0 shellacking was the worst home loss, under Belichick. The defense was stellar, as it has been all season. Carr was clicking and Kamara found the end zone. That formula will serve them well against Houston. The Texans have had two big wins but they've also had two double-digit losses. They lost a close one at Atlanta last game. Now they are back home where they are only 3-15-1 their last 19. The Saints defense, better against both the run and the pass and allowing just 15 points per game, will be the difference. *Road Warrior

I wasn't at all surprised that the Bengals beat Arizona last week. It was a break-out game for Burrow, Chase and the Bengal offense. On the other side, the defense also elevated its play. Cincinnati will carry that confidence into Sunday afternoon's home game against Seattle. The Seahawks are off a bye. That's not always helpful! The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS their last 2 off a bye. Long-term? They're 12-23 ATS with a push, the last 36 times they were off a bye. Even off the bye, the Hawks aren't entirely healthy. The Bengals have won 15 of their last 21 home games and we don't have to worry about laying a big number. Arizona was a losing team but the Bengals are also 16-4 straight-up and 15-5 against the spread against winning teams. They''ll get back to .500 and add to those stats Sunday afternoon. *NFL GOY

Grabbing points with the Bruins. The Beavers are a good team and I know they've got a great home record. UCLA remains under-rated though. The Beavers allow 19.7 points each game. OSU has given up 38 or more points in two of their last three games.The Bruins only allow 12.2. No team has scored more than 17 against them. That makes it difficult to beat the Bruins by more than a field goal. Grab the points with the better defense! *Pac 12 GOM

I feel that Fresno State is a far stronger team than Utah State. Both teams score but the Bulldogs also prevent teams from scoring. They allow an average of 18.2 points each game. The Aggies give up 32.2 points per game, a full extra two touchdowns. The Bulldogs have covered six of the past 10 as road favorites. A well-coached team, the Bulldogs are also 3-0 against the spread the past three times they were off a conference loss. They'll win this game by a touchdown or more. *MWC GOW

The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs go 3-7 against the spread in Week 5 to Week 9. KC will have its hands full. The loss to the Jets was costly but Denver has shown signs of life in back-to-back games. As bad as the Broncos record is, they've been competitive in every game but one. The loss to Miami was ugly but the all four of the other games were decided by 10 or less, three of them by three or less. The Chiefs have also been playing close games. They messed up Chicago but their other four games were all decided by eight points or less. Four of the past five meetings were decided by six or less including each of the past three. This will be another close one. Grab all those points! *Thursday Night Football GOM

I was against the Raiders last week, when they lost their road game versus the Chargers. At home against a Green Bay team which looked terrible last week, Las Vegas will achieve a more favorable result. I happily cashed my ticket against them but the Raiders did some things that impressed me. They finished the game with more first downs (22-16) than the Chargers, as well as an advantage in terms of time of possession. That was with a rookie, making his first start at QB. Now the Raiders get Garoppolo back. Jimmy said this: "Feeling good. I think we're in a good spot. We had a good practice out there, had a good rhythm and a good tempo to us." Remember that Garoppolo has former Packer Davante Adams to throw to and that the star receiver tends to thrive under the national spotlight. Facing his old team, don't be surprised when Adams becomes the first player in NFL history to go over 100 receiving yards five times in a row on Monday night. That will pave the way to a Raider victory. *MNF GOM

Are the Bengals as bad as they've looked? Are the Cardinals as good as they've looked? My answer to both questions is "No." It's my belief that those answers will become clear this afternoon and that the Bengals will take advantage of a less talented opponent. They didn't show it at Tennessee last week but the Bengals have been true road warriors. They're 17-7 ATS their last 24 away from Cincinnati, 4-2 ATS as road favorites. Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. Lay the small number. *Road Warrior

Baltimore crushed Cleveland last week. Pittsburgh got pounded by Houston. So, why play on the Steelers? The NFL is a funny league and it's important not to over-react to the previous week's games. It's also important to understand that those results are helping to get us some extra points with Pittsburgh. The fact is that the Ravens are now playing their second straight divisional road game and third divisional road game in the past four weeks. Their injuries are mounting, too. Even with the win over the Browns, they're still an awful 9-17 ATS their last 26 as favorites. After their previous divisional road win, the Ravens lost outright to the Colts in their next game. The Steelers are 15-10 ATS as underdogs, during the same time period. Tomlin's team responded to it first loss by bouncing back with an upset of a divisional rival. The plan is for Pittsburgh to win this game outright. Getting points in this rivalry is always nice though. The last four meetings were all decided by three or less! The last six meetings were all decided by five or less. In what will likely be another close encounter, grab the points. *AFC North GOY

This game is essentially a must win for the Horned Frogs, if they want to stay in the hunt in the Big 12. For such a situation, the Frogs draw the perfect opponent. The Cyclones had a really good defense last year. TCU still dropped 62 points on them! This year's Iowa State defense isn't nearly as talented. The offense is punchless, too. Remember that the Cyclones got hit by scandal before the season. That's had a negative impact on them. The Frogs have had trouble here in the past but that will change Saturday. TCU still has a talented defense. In four games since the Colorado debacle, the Frogs are allowing an average of 15 points. ISU will have trouble scoring. TCU (34.8 ppg) should have no problem doing so. The Cyclones were shredded for 50 points and more than 500 yards last week. They're now 2-6-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs. The Frogs, 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as road favorites, will be too much for their hosts. A motivated TCU team puts it all together and wins by double-digits. *Big 12 GOY

Things haven't gone well for the Golden Eagles but this is an OId Dominion team which they can handle. They may have struggled in the underdog role but the Golden Eagles are 7-3 ATS, 8-2 SU the last 10 times that they were favored. ODU is 4-8 ATS last 12 times line ranged from -3 to +3. The Monarchs are just 9-25 their last 34 games in the month of October. This is not a strong ODU team. Now in the Sun Belt, the Golden Eagles and Monarchs met twice when they were in CUSA. The home team won both. The home team will win again on Saturday.

The Gamecocks have the better record. Yet, the Blue Raiders are favored. Given that setup, it's not all that surprising that money came in on the underdog which brought the line down a little. Middle Tennessee was installed as the favorite for a reason, as this is a good matchup for the Blue Raiders.

The Gamecocks are 1-1 on the road. They got beaten badly at Coastal Carolina and they needed OT to win at Sam Houston State. That came against the BearKats who were previously 0-3 and had been scored only 10 points, while giving up 65. Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium is a far more difficult venue.

Look for the Blue Raiders to play their best game as they bounce back and improve to 6-3 ATS the past nine times that they were coming off a conference loss. *CUSA GOY

Both teams are 1-2. The winner will be back in the thick of things. The loser will be in big trouble. It's my opinion that the Chargers are the real deal and that the Raiders are not. Chargers lost a pair of close ones and easily could have won both. Raiders got destroyed last road game and followed it up by losing to Pittsburgh in primetime. LA is much better offensively. Chargers averaging 416.7 yards per game. Raiders averaging 287.7. Chargers averaging 28.7 points, Raiders averaging 15. Problem for the Raiders is that the Chargers are probably also better defensively. Then, there's the Raiders QB issues with Jimmy G in concussion protocol. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels commented: We're at the mercy of the testing and all the rest of it. He'll go through the normal set of tests. We'll see if he clears." Garoppolo may well play. Even if he does, or if its Hoyer or O'Connell, it's not going to make a difference. Chargers big. *AFC West GOY

With essentially no pointspread to worry about, we can just focus on picking the winner. With that being the case, I'll gladly back Illinois. The Boilermakers did win at Virginia Tech. That's not as impressive as it sounds though. The Hokies aren't very strong this season. Since then, the Boilermakers have suffered b2b blowout losses. This is an inexperienced team with a coach in his first year. After Purdue scored the big upset at Champlain last year, the visitor is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series. Bret Beilema knows how costly last year's loss to the Boilermakers was. He can't afford to let the same thing happen. The Illini are 8-3 ATS their last 11 on the road. They'll build momentum off last week's victory and avenge last year's loss. *Big Ten GOY

Gophers happy to be home after dropping b2b road games. They're 2-0 here with wins over Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. They beat EMU by 19 as 20-point favorites. This line is much lower than that one but the Gophers are fully capable of winning by at least that many again. Cajuns are playing their third road game in four weeks and facing their toughest opponent yet. It will catch up with them. Expect the Gophers' advantages to be clearly evident and for them to improve to 12-8 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were home chalk of -10 to -14.5 points. *12 ET Blowout

I always like getting points with the superior team. Even more when my team is playing at home. These teams are both new to the Big 12 this season. Both came up short in their conference opener. The ground game may have struggled but the Cougar passing attack is clicking on all cylinders. Expect another big day through the air against an inexperienced and vulnerable Bearcat secondary. This is not an easy place to play. The Cougars have outscored opponents 41-15 in going 2-0 here so far. They're 11-3 straight-up their last 14 here, 3-0 when the total fell in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bearcats have played pretty well but they're still a team which lost a lot from last year and which has a new coach. It catches up with them in Provo, Fright night. BYU scores the minor upset in its Big 12 home opener! *Big 12 GOM

The Steelers looked better than the Raiders last week. They were at home for the second straight week though. The Raiders were playing a road game against one of the best team's in the NFL, their second straight on the road. This time, it's the Raiders who will benefit from being at home. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS the past five instances where they were home favorites of three or less. During that time, the Steelers are 2-3 ATS when off a divisional win. Off their win over the Browns and playing on a short week (Remember, Pittsburgh's last game was on MNF.) the Steelers will struggle. They won a close on against the Raiders at Pittsburgh last meeting but the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. They'll be fired up for the home opener and will come away with the win and cover. *NFL GOW

The talent gap between these teams is a lot less than many realize. A few weeks ago, Pittsburgh might have been favored for this game. The Tar Heels are tough but the Panthers are better than their 1-2 record suggests. Speaking of Pittsburgh's 1-2 w/l mark, the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS The past six times that they faced a team with a losing record. The Panthers gave the Tar Heels all that they could handle each of the past two meetings here. Both went to OT. Both were won by Pitt. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS the past four in the series. With the Tar Heels just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were road favorites in the 9.5-12 range, grab the points with the home underdog Panthers. *ACC GOY

The line on Michigan should be higher. The Knights have fared well against lesser competition but this is a massive step up in class, one which they will not be ready for. Rutgers has been favored in its first three games. The Knights are just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 as underdogs though. Once the Wolverines got rolling in last year's game, they outscored Rutgers by a 38-0 margin in the second half. The problem for the Knights is that they are ra running team and they are forced to abandon the run after they fall behind. Back to the line: the Wolverines are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were favored by 21.5 to 24 points. This has been a good role for them. They're also 14-6 ATS their last 20 conference games. Wolverines win big!

Home field means a lot for both of these squads. The Broncos won 35-13 on the blue turf last year. However, the last time (2021) the teams played here at San Diego, the Aztecs won 27-16. Including those results, SDSU is 6-2 ATS when facing Boise in MWC play. The Broncos are loaded on offense but a little inexperienced on defense. Through three games, they're allowing 30.7 ppg. They got crushed in their only road game this season. In fact, they're only 1-2 overall. The Aztecs 13-5 SU L3 years at home, are 6-1 their last seven against teams with a losing record. Granted, the Broncos aren't a typical losing team. my point is that they haven't yet hit their stride though, their only win coming at home against North Dakota. Going through a tough scheduling stretch, the Aztecs know they need to step up and score an upset. This one should be close. Grab the points!

The road team has enjoyed recent success in this series. That will change Thursday night though. The Chanticleers didn't just win last year's game, (at Georgia State) they dominated the Panthers. A 272-78 advantage on the ground and a 268-231 edge through the air. Time of possession was more than 40 mins for Coastal Carolina and less than 20 for Georgia State. This year's Chanticleers are even stronger on defense. Having already played at UCLA, the Chanticleers are battle-tested. They held their own for much of that game (1 point game in 4th quarter) and dominated their next two opponents. The Panthers haven't been tested yet. They've got an inexperienced offensive line and that will catch up with them against their first difficult opponent. Chanticleers are 10-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in September last few years. They're also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on Thursday football. Superior defense, homefield and an advantage in the trenches leads to another big win for Coastal Carolina!

The Saints and Panthers meet up in a key NFC South match up. If last week is anything to go by, the Saints will rely on the arm of Carr to put up points, hopefully more than last week's 16.  For the Panthers, it will be all about the run as newbie QB Young looks like he will need some time to adjust.  Both of these teams faced run-heavy teams in game one.  The Saints held King Henry to 4.3/63 yards. Carolina allowed 130 yds rushing to the Falcons. The Saints pass defense ate up Tannehill and Co. last week.  Facing rookie Bryce Young, who finished with a passer rating of under 50, it will be no contest.  The Panthers allowed Ridder a 111 rating, even when sacking him 4 times.

Carr looked effective if turnover-prone, throwing for 282 passing yards, with a Passer Rating of 96.  He was harried especially in the first half, but put up impressive totals in yards if not points none the less.  The Saints will have to improve on passer protection as Carr was sacked 4 times. He has very good targets this year, including a very speedy rookie in Shaheed.  With Carolina missing a key CB in Horn, the Saints will be able to move the ball in the air effectively.  It is hard to see where Carolina's points will come from on Sunday.  New Orleans gave up zero rush and pass TDs last week, and this is not a strong offense. The favored Saints should win and cover in Prime Time on Monday night.

Tua is the talk of the town after that massive pass attack in Week one.  The Dolphins will face a much tougher defense on Sunday and he is unlikely to get as much time or as little pressure in Week two.  Let's bear in mind that the Dolphins barely won the game, had little running game and the defense really struggled, especially vs the run.  New England's offense including Jones, impressed in week one.  They were unlucky to lose against a tough Eagles team, but as far as Jones' passing game goes, I am still not sold.  Is the Dolphins' defense really as poor as they looked in week one? They were projected to be much improved this year. I believe that adjustments can and will be made, but they are up against Belichik who will have a very considered game plan.  The Dolphins are a small favorite today.  The Patriots' offense does not have the dynamism of the Chargers and with Tua healthy and his fine targets ready, the Dolphins can really score in a hurry.   I believe the Dolphins offense will be very tough to slowdown this early in the season.  Take Miami  to  win and cover.

As dominant as the Rams were in game one vs the Seahawks, their chances of upsetting the 49ers are slim.  Stafford had a field day vs Seattle but was very well protected (0 sacks).  It is highly unlikely that Stafford will have near as much time to operate on Sunday.  The Rams again don't appear to be focusing on the run again this year, and even if they did, SF is very tough on the ground.  The 49ers had 5 sacks last week, and Stafford is not the most mobile of passers.  Purdy, on the other hand, saw a lot of TJ Watt last week, was sacked 3 times, but he still finished with a very solid game, ending with a 111 passer rating.  Purdy has, as we know, great targets,and he put to rest some of the concerns about his success this year. The 49ers ran for 144 yards with McCaffrey leading the way.  He has been a huge thorn in the side of the Rams in past meetings.  The lack of a Rams run game, and the toughness and skill of the 49ers as a complete entity will be more than the Rams can handle.  Look for SF to  give Purdy better protection, and take SF to win and cover.

The Packers appeared the more impressive team in Week One, but played against an arguably weaker opponent and may have key players sitting this week. Both young QBs ended with solid ratings.  Ridder was accurate, but relied heavily on a very short game with just 91 yards passing.  The Falcon's' O line did not support him well, allowing four sacks, but is a good bet for improvement in Game 2.  Love looked very good in the second half, had plenty of time, but completed just 55% of his passes.  He will face much more pressure this week from Atlanta's defense. The Falcons  effectively shut down the Panthers' pass attack, albeit against a rookie QB, last week.

The Falcons' run-centric offense with Allgeier and Robinson was very effective last week (130 yards rushing/ 5 yards per carry)  The Packers weren't great against the run, allowing the Bears 122 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt.  The potential loss or compromise  of Green Bay's RB Jones is very significant.  He was the driving force last week for the Packers and won't easily be replaced, as Dillon was ineffective last week.  This could be a very close game, but Packers' injuries  and the Falcons' new and improved defense will make the difference.  take the Falcons to win and cover.

Tennessee is ranked No. 11 in the country at 2-0, while the Florida Gators enter at 1-1. Tennessee is off ht 30-13 win over FCS Opponent Austin Peay, not even coming close to covering the ridiculous 48-point spread.

Florida is also off a blowout win over an FCS Opponent, smashing McNeese State by a score of 49-7 as a 48.5-point favorite.

These teams met last year and the Vols managed the 38-33 shootout win at home, but now it's payback time for the Gators. That said, while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Tennessee is led by Joe Milton, who has 429 yards passing and 4:0 TD:INT so far. But the Vols looked poor defensively overall to a weak team, allowing 260 passing yards to Austin Peay. 

Florida finished with 327 yards on the ground last week. QB Graham Mertz has two passing TD's so far. The Gators' defense has been great, so far allowing 191 YPG. 

Milton has never lived up to expectations throughout his now six year career, and I think he'll struggle to cover this spread.

Grab the points, the play is Florida.

UTSA won this game by a score of 41-38 in OT last year, barely covering the two-point spread. Here we are a year later and the Roadrunners are much bigger favs, but not nearly big enough in my opinion. 

Army lost 17-13 to Louisiana Monroe, and then followed it up with a 57-0 win over FCS Delaware State. The Black Knights though have more questions than answers still. 

The Roadrunners started the year with a 17-14 loss to Houston, before then responding with the 20-13 win over Texas State in Week 2. 

UTSA starting QB Frank Harris could be sidelined with injury in this one, but even if he is out I still like the home side to not only win this matchup, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Roadrunners looked sharp on defense last week, holding Texas State to just 242 yards of offense. The defense also looked great in the loss to Houston, and I believe the unit will be the difference-maker in this one.

It's "Next Man Up" for the Roadrunners, and I expect everyone else to help shoulder the load as well here.

Lay the points, the play is UTSA.

The Eagles won unconvincingly in week one vs the Patriots.  The Vikings stumbled to a loss against a projected weaker opponent in the Bucs in their first game.  The Vikings put up a ton of passing yards, as usual, but weren't great in the red zone and gave up the ball three times.  They barely attempted a run game, finishing with just 41 yds on 17 attempts.  A one dimensional offense will be an issue against the Eagles' likely formidable pass pressure.  Philadelphia will be down a running back, but do have other options including, of course, Hurts.  The Vikings project to be a much softer defense than the Eagles' Game One opponent.  The Vikings allowed 25 points last week and Hurts and the Eagles will be a large step up from Mayfield's Buccaneer offense.  Cousins is notorious for poor play in the limelight.  Much like last year, the Eagles, after an underwhelming game one, again face  the Vikings at home.  Look for a similar outcome as the Eagles win and cover.

The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home.  The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite.  Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season.  While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR.  With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season.  The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted.  This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week.  Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp.  The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday.  Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily.

The Cardinals in absolute rebuild mode, are without their starting QB, did not add to last year's dismal pass defense, and have 11 rookies on the roster.  Dobbs will likely start under center, so expect a run-focused offense from the Cardinals.  Meanwhile the Commanders have a sold out opener,  3 straight victories in preseason, if you are counting, and a projected very tough defense.  Washington doesn't yet know what they have in Howell but the 2nd year pro is very mobile  at least, and he has great targets, especially if McLaurin is playing.  At their best last year, the Commanders ground out wins with a relentless rush offense, but very little dynamism in the air. Howell, while remaining a question mark,  looks to be an improvement.  The Commanders' defense especially  the pass rush will over-match the Cardinal' shaky offense on Sunday.  Take Washington, with the crowd, to win and cover.

Texas beat Rice 37-10 in its opener last week. Last year the Longhorns went 8-5 overall, including just 2-2 on the road. Texas though is favored to win the Big 12 conference title this season. The Crimson Tide enter 1-0 as well after handling MTSU last week. Alabama is predicted to finish second to Georgia in the SEC this year. That said, Bama was 11-2 last year, including 7-0 at home. This is obviously a huge game, as this is the type of victory that will really help the resume at the end of the year when it comes to the CFP. I just think that Quinn Ewers will have some opportunities to keep his team competitive throughout. The defense will be better this year than last as well with the majority of the unit returning which finished second overall in the Big 12 last year. QB Jalen Milroe has big shoes to fill for the Tide. He had 242 yards and five TD's last week. The defense is once again a strength as well, but there's still some question marks surrounding this year's version of the Tide. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I think this one "comes down to the wire." Grab the points and Texas.

The Aggies are 1-1, while Liberty is 1-0. Last year New Mexico State was 7-6, while the Flames finished 8-5. 

The Aggies are coming off a 58-21 win over Western Illinois, and I think they can carry that momentum over here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a tight battle here in my opinion (they had 438 yards of offense in the second half alone!) Diego Pavia had 317 yards passing and two TD's. 

Liberty managed the 34-24 win over Bowling Green, but I believe it'll have a much harder time containing the visiting side today. QB Kaidon Salter finished with 143 yards passing and two TD's. 

The Flames had five INT's, but everything points to a much more competitive affair here between conference opponents. 

New Mexico State won this game 49-14 last year. I'm not calling for the outright as I said, but I'm definitely grabbing the points!

WMU enters 1-1, as does Syracuse. Cleary, I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do think the Orange will take the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door open for the Broncos to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch.

WMU beat FCS St. Francis 35-17 in its opener, while Syracuse hammered FCS Colgate 65-0. 

I just think the Broncos run game can chew up enough clock here to keep the visitors competitive late. Last week the unit posted 339 yards. QB Jack Salopek had 170 yards and a TD. Jalen Buckley stole the show though with 194 rushing yards. The defense also looked decent in conceding 280 yards. 

Syrcause QB Garrett Schrader had 257 passing yards and four TD's. The defense looked good, but clearly the numbers on both sides of the field are "skewed." 

With a game at Purdue next weekend, followed by Clemson, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Western Michigan.

Purdue got upset by Fresno State last weekend, and I think it'll struggle again here on the road in this difficult venue. 

Virginia Tech beat ODU 36-17 and in my opinion, the Hokies are going to move to 2-0 after this contest. 

But the Boilermakers were just a complete mess, losing the battle of the clock by 13 minutes, while going just 3 of 12 on third down. QB Hudson Card was inept, averaging just 3.6 yards on 30 attempts.

VT QB Grant Wells had three passing TDs and one running TD last week, and I believe he'll be a difference-maker this weekend. 

Not only do I expect VT to win this game, but I believe it'll do so in blowout fashion.

The Utah Utes are 1-0 after Week 1, while the Baylor Bears are 0-1. 

The Bears were stunned by Texas State, while Utah pulled away for a victory over Miami. 

Utah QB Cameron Rising did not play in last week's 24-11 home win. Bryson Barnes was adequate in filling in, finishing with 159 yards and a TD. The ground game managed only 105 rushing yards.

The defense looked good, and last year the unit allowed 24 points. 

Baylor though will be pushing the pace of this one from the outset after the 42-31 ssetback to Texas State. QB Blake Shapen was inured, meaning that QB Sawyer Robertson will now get the start here. He'll be leaning heavily on the run game and Richard Reese, who averaged 4.9 YPC last season. Baylor's defense was also decent last year, ranked 80th overall in the country by allowing 26.6 PPG. 

I think we'll see a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is Baylor.

Both teams enter 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS. Illinois is coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo, while Kansas defeated Missouri State 48-17. Illinois was a 7-point favorite, while the Jayhawks were 32.5-point favorites. Illinois had the nation's No. 1 defense last year, but the unit just conceded 28 to Toledo, but we can expect a more solid performance this time around. Illinois had a lot of turnover, but with that first game out of the way, combined with a win, I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Luke Altmyer finished with 211 yards and two TD's. Jalon Daniels sat out last week, but he's expected back in the lineup for the Jayhawks this week, but he'll need time to adjust. Defense is an issue for the Jayhawks, last year they allowed 35.5 PPG, worst in the Big 12. While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The Chiefs have now won the Super Bowl in two out of the last four years and I think they carry over that momentum here on Opening night. The Lions took a big step forward last year and the expectations could not be higher in Detroit. 

Of these two teams though, it's the Lions that I feel could suffer a big letdown this year. 

There are still plenty of question marks about this Detroit defense, and despite Patrick Mahomes having some new faces in his offense, I just can't see the Chiefs floundering here on Opening Night. In fact, I expect the opposite, as they look to run up the score early and take control of this one from the "get go." 

With back-to-back home games after this vs. Seattle and Atlanta, I say Detroit gets caught looking ahead. 

Lay the points, the play is KC.

Clemson didn't lose a single ACC game last year, bu it lost non-conference matchups vs. Notre Dame, South Carolina and then it also lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. 

Duke was no slouch either though last season, finishing 9-4, capped off with a win over UCF in the Military Bowl. 

Clemson is a powerhouse and Cade Klubnik now has big shoes to fill. He has plenty of weapons though, but I just feel that Duke will be able to keep pace and stay competitive late.

I'm not calling for the outright upset, but with Mike Elko directing the show for Duke, I absolutely don't expect this to be a "cake walk" for the visiting side.

Riley Leonard is an exceptional and versatile QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker here on Monday night.

As stated above, no outright win, but this is a few too many points for Clemson to be covering out of the gate vs. such a talented conference oppoent.

Grab the points, the play is Duke.

I like No. 5 LSU to figure out a way to secure the win and cover here on the road at No. 8 Florida State. LSU went 10-4 last year, averaging 34.5 PPG, and allowing just 22.5. 

The Seminoles finished 10-3 and averaged 36.1 PPG, while allowing 20.6. 

This though is actually a revenge game after FSU won 24-23 as a 4-point dog on the road in the first game of the year last season. 

LSU QB Jayden Daniels will prove to be just too much for this still strong FSU defensive unit. 

Brian Kelly plays well a favorite and everything in my opinion points to a comfortable win and cover in this rvenge scenario.

Lay the short points, because the play is LSU.

I believe Alabama will go up early, but then take the foot off the gas in the second half, and I look for MTSU to then comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch during garbage time. The Crimson Tide were 11-2 last year, while the Blue Raiders were 8-5. MTSU won the the Hawaii Bowl 35-23. It replaces Chase Cunningham under center, but Nick Vattiato is a worthy replacement. MTSU was good against the run, and I expect Alabama to run a lot today. Last year the Tide were 11-2, and they won the Sugar Bowl by beating K-State 45-20. But with only ten starters back from last year's team, it's going to be a transitional period for the Tide. Clearly I'm not calling for the outright upset, but the conditions are definitely correct for a solid underdog cover here in Week 1. Grab the points, the play is MTSU.

Last season Nevada went just 2-10, and while the Wolf Pack will assuredly be better this season, I still think they're in way over their heads here on the road in this difficult venue. Brendan Lewis is now the man under center for Nevada, coming over from Colorado, and he doesn't have a lot to work with. The defense was an absolute disaster last year, and it's once again expected to be the weakest point of the team this season. USC is off a rocking chair victory over San Jose State, winning but not covering. But now I for sure like USC to fire on all cylinders here over each drive, and to bury the Wolf Pack over the first three quarters, before making way for the backups and younger kids to get some valuable playing time. QB Caleb Williams had 278 yards and four TD's last week, and I expect him to be a difference-maker this weekend as well. Lay the points.

Fresno State finished 10-4 last year, while Purdue was 8-6. Last year the Boilermakers lost their final two games of the season, iincluding a 63-7 loss to LSU in the Citrus Bowl. Fresno State on the other hand has won nine straight dating back to last season, including a 29-6 win over Washington State in the LA Bowl. Both teams will have to transition, as each has to replace a star QB. Ryan Walters has a more difficult job here taking over at Purdue for Jeff Brohm, hw is now in Louisville. Frenso State has everything in place to pull off the outright, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is Fresno State. 

Arkansas State was 3-9 last year, while Oklahoma was 6-6. The Red Wolves though feel they can take a big step forward this year with JT Shrout under center, who had 1,220 passing yards and 7:8 TD:INT with Colorado last year. I expect him to do much better in an easier conference this season. Last year they scored an average of 25, and allowed 31.4. Oklahoma averaged 32.9, but it conceded 29.6. The defense will once again be a weak point for the Sooners. Dillon Gabriel is a pretty mediocre QB in a tough conference for Oklahoma. And unfortunately for Gabriel, he lost several key offensive pieces to the NFL from last year's unit. Last year Akansas State played both Ohio State and Memphis and covered, and I expect the same here. This is too many points, so the play is indeed on Arkansas State.

Utah State isn't expected to do very well this season, picked to finished eighth in the 2023 preseason Mountain West pools. Last year the Aggies were 6-7 and just 2-4 in road games. Iowa finished 8-5, including 4-3 at home. The Aggies do return QB Cooper Legas, but he lost several key players to last year's decent offensive unit. It'll take a step back here. Last year the defense was terrible due to injury. It's difficult to say where the unit is heading into this season. Cade McNamara is expected to rejuvinate this Hawkeyes offense. Last year he finished with 2,576 passing yards, 15 TD's and six INT's. Look for Iowa to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

We have an interstate matchup here between two teams that are looking to take a big step forward this season. Both likely will, but I still think this is too many points for Michigan State to cover in Week 1. CMU was 4-8 overall last year. Head coach Jim McElwain once again has a tough non-conference schedule ahead of him this year, with upcoming games vs. No. 13 Notre Dame in Week 3 on the horizon with others. Bert Emmanuel is expected to be the starting QB for the Chips this year, and he's a true dual threat who will be able to exploit this poor MSU defense. The Chips weakness is on the defensive end as well, but they catch a break here in Week 1 facing this unproven MSU offense. The Spartans finished 5-7 and missed out on a bowl game. Noah Kim is the man under center to start, and last year he went 14 of 19 for 174 yards. MSU was ranked 82nd defensively, allowing an average of 237.9 YPG through the air. MSU's terrible defensive play will allow the Chips to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Central Michigan.

I think Nebraka is going to be a lot better this year, and I think that Minnesota is going to take a step back, but here in Week 1, I still think that the Gophers run game and re-worked defensive unit will be too much for Matt Rhule's team to handle down the stretch. QB Jeff Sims tranferred over from Georgia Tech for Nebraska and while he has plenty of talent, that chemistry will for sure take time to develop. The Gophers won this game 20-13 last year, but I'm expecting a bigger final discrepancy this time around. Minnesota does have a star in RB Sean Tyler as well. I see this one getting out of hand late, so lay the points on the Gophers.

Here we go with another College Football season and I'll look to pick up right where I left off from last season. Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last year. Kill has a knack of turning programs around, and I see more progression this season. Here's a great opponent to hammer on early and work out some stuff. Last year Diego Pavia was a true dual threat QB, while the defense was the biggest surprise, finishing 30th overall in the country. New Mexico State is only ranked 122nd, and UMass is significantly lower than that. Look for the Aggies to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with New Mexico State.

Here it comes!  The Eagles and the Chiefs meet up for all the marbles.  Mahomes continued his path to possible "GOAT" status with an inspired Conference Final game while obviously playing hurt. So why not another win on Super Sunday?
Injuries:  Mahomes may be healthier but what about KC's WRs?  The Chiefs have a lot more question marks around who will play on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles are basically healthy.
Passing defense:  #1 vs #19.  The Eagles are a legit number one pass defense; tops in all aspects.  the Chiefs barely beat the Bengals with a just average pass defense.  It will be much much tougher for the Chiefs to move the ball in the air this coming Sunday.  The Eagles are formidable in passer pressure, and Mahomes is still likely not 100% mobile.
Run game:  The Eagles have a good one, and the added advantage of a fine rushing passer.  Considering the low % of rush plays the Chiefs face on average (26% last game), the Chiefs can be run on when it suits the opposition.  Enter Hurts and the Eagles run-first offense, plus a defense that will limit the Chiefs' pass opportunities.
Let's do the Math. The Combination of a better Eagles defense (pass and run) added to a more flexible Philly offense equals an Eagles win.  Take Philadelphia to win and cover.   
 

The Bengals were a road favorite just a few days ago, but with clarification about Mahomes' availability, this game is now a pick'em.  The Bengals have had more success than any team against the Chiefs.  Against the Bills last week, the Bengals' offense was the complete package. Burrow threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and the run game put up a huge 160+ yards against a tough Bills run defense.  The defense dominated, limiting the Bills to just 60 rush yards, and Allen to no passing TDs.
The Chiefs are not above giving up points, especially in the air (32nd ranked in pass TDs allowed), and there will be concern about Mahomes' mobility, not to mention the three straight losses against the Bengals.
Not to underestimate Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Burrow is the prince in waiting, the Cincinnati run game put up some big numbers, and the Bengals' defense really impressed.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

PLEASE NOTE: This pick was previously posted as favoring the Chiefs, when the write-up clearly stated that it was a selection on the Bengals. It has since been corrected. Call it pilot error: I clicked the wrong button.  My apologies for the confusion.

The Eagles have home field and the crowd on Sunday, but face a 49ers team that has been completely dominant in the second half of the season. Both teams are healthy but the 49ers face some question marks around Samuel and their starting running backs. Philadelphia whipped the Giants, but it has not been smooth sailing while Hurts was injured.  He put concerns about his shoulder to rest last week but faces the league's best run defense this week and will likely have to throw the ball more. The SF defense is more susceptible in the air and has also not faced a good rushing QB since Mariotta and the Falcons.  Atlanta won that game convincingly.

49ers' QB Purdy has been an eye-opener this season. He does what he is told to do more than competently, and with very few mistakes.  The kid appears to have ice water in his veins, but he did struggle against a very good Cowboys pass defense and saw his passer rating drop by 40 points last week.  The 49ERS are a rush-first team, but the bulk of their points still come in the air.  While they can be run on, the Eagles have THE elite pass defense in the league and pressure a passer like no-one else.
I have waffled about this game, but believe the variety of the Eagles' offense will win out in the end.  Hurts does too many things well to discount and has experience on his side.  Purdy will have to be better than he ever has been under intense pressure from the crowd, nerves and that superlative Eagles pass defense.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

Two very fine teams, both off huge wild card victories, meet up on Sunday.  We are looking at the 4th and 5th best offenses, and the 5th and 6th best defenses, so there is no obvious advantage.  That said, each defense has weak point. For Dallas, it is the run game; 21st rated though improving lately.  The 49ers' soft spot is their pass defense.  They are 20th in pass yards allowed and 22 in completion rate.
Prescott pulled apart the Bucs' very good pass defense last week, and looked exceptionally sharp. Vs the Commanders the week before, it was the combination of Washington's top pass defense and the Commanders' ability to exploit Dallas's poorer run defense that led to the Commanders' success.
The Cowboys can run the ball but it will be tough to move vs the 49ers' elite run defense, however Prescott should be able to continue his fine passing play against the weaker 49ers' pass defense.  The 49ers can and will run the ball vs Dallas, but the bulk of their points are coming via the pass.  Purdy will face a very tough and active Cowboys' pass defense, the best he has faced yet.  Although he hasn't played like it, Purdy is still a rookie with limited experience in a very very big game.  While it will likely be a very close game, I am going with the more experienced passer today.  Take the Cowboys with the points, now more than a field goal.

The Bengals travel to Buffalo to play in the snow tomorrow against a favored Bills team.  The Dolphins, the best pass-centric team the Bills have faced this year, put up 81 points in three games against Buffalo this year, winning once and losing the others by 3 points.  The Bengals are an elite pass-first team with a far better defense than Miami's. With the spread now at 6 points, I am not at all confident that the Bills can put this game away, in spite of Cincinnati's O-line injuries. Burrow, of all passers, is the least likely to be seriously affected by O line deficiencies. Very high sack totals has been the norm for him until this year, and he has thrived anyway.  The cold weather has not affected him, he loves the limelight, and he and the Bengals are unlikely to be affected by crowd noise.
At times last week, Allen moved the ball with ease against the Dolphins, but his slew of picks and fumbles in recent games is concerning.  The Bengals play a very clean game when it comes to turnovers. A game-deciding mistake is far more likely to come from Allen and the Bills this week.
On paper Buffalo has the edge in defense, especially rush defense. The Bengals are unlikely to run the ball excessively, and as far as points-allowed goes, Cincinnati has the upper hand, with 17 on average L3 games, and 17 last week compared to the Bills' 22 points allowed L3 and 31 last week.
In the last ill-fated and shortened meeting of these two teams, The Bengals were moving the ball with ease.  Look for a close game tomorrow, and take the Bengals plus the points.

The Giants face the Eagles at home in the divisional round.  This should be no contest considering their respective positions in the standings, but I believe it will be a much closer game and here is why.  
-Jalen Hurts is playing but in all likelihood is not completely healthy, and I doubt he is capable of going all-in on Saturday. We have seen how the Eagles fare without Hurts, and he did not impress in week 18.
-The Giants are inspired by their situation. Daboll has their attention, and he and they seem to learn from their mistakes this season.  A case in point; the Giants lost to the Vikings in week 16.  Three weeks later, in the biggest of games, they roll out a win over Minnesota.
-As good as the Eagles are against the pass, they have been susceptible on the ground. The Giants moved the ball in week 18 missing Barkley and Jones. Look for much better results this week.
-It isn't just the Eagles offense that has struggled in recent games.  Phillie's offense lacks some of the lustre we saw earlier in the season. While their passer pressure has remained a constant, their passing yards allowed has crept up, along with all other pass categories not related to pressure.  The Giants' defense has shown general improvement down the stretch, as has the offense.

I don't expect Jones to pass for 300 yards this week, and I don't really expect the Giants to win outright, but a close game, decided by one score, is very likely.  Take the Giants, now a seven+ point underdog, with the points, as the Eagles are out-coached and held in check on Saturday.

The last really good team the Chiefs played was the Bengals and they lost. They beat the Chargers, the Jags' competition last week, by 3 points, and the rest of their recent competition hasn't been strong. This is a much better Jags team than the last time the Chiefs faced them and we are now looking at a 9 point spread. Lawrence has grown immensely as a passer and bounced back from some uncharacteristically poor play in the first halves of his last two games, so let us hope his jitters are behind him.  The weather will be been less than perfect on Saturday and the Jags have the edge in the run department, so a possible edge there. The Jags' O-line has protected Lawrence very well to date but the Chiefs are a voracious team when it comes to passer pressure. I expect a big game from Etienne on  Saturday.
Mahomes is Mahomes, but the Chiefs' record against the spread is not impressive.  This is too many points considering the Jags are on a huge and unexpected run against really tough odds this season. Look for a closer game that the line would suggest.  Take an inspired Jags team and the points.

Even after a sub .500 season it is hard to go against Brady and the Bucs.  It would be easier if Prescott were playing a little better.  A few things stand out in this match-up.  As noted in the media, the Cowboys  a. haven't won in a quite a while against the Bucs, b. don't play well on real grass, and c. Tampa, while losing more than winning this season, are above .500 at home.

The Cowboys have gotten away from their running game lately; the Bucs who are last in the league in rush yards for the season, have put up just as many yards as Dallas lately. The Bucs seldom run the ball, but did against the Cowboys in their first game and again against the Seahawks, two of their best performances this year.  The Cowboys are susceptible to the run, so it is a possibility we will see more from Fournette and the rush defense on Monday.  Brady has looked better connected to his targets, and might hold on to the ball a little longer with the season on the line. 

Prescott has no impressed at all in recent games, and it isn't just the picks he has thrown.  The offensive breakdown in a game that should have mattered last week is concerning.  Dallas could revert to the run, and should be able to move the ball vs Tampa, but in the end, given his history and his ability to move the ball when he needs to this season, I'm choosing Brady over Prescott.  Tampa is as healthy as they have been all season.  A mistake could decide this game, a pick or an interception, and it is more likely to come from Dallas. Take Tampa + the points.

It is offense vs defense when the Bengals host the Ravens on Sunday.  Resting Andrews, Dobbins and others last week, the Ravens deserted their running game, with rookie QB Anthony Brown throwing for 270+ yards, not to mention 2 picks and an end zone fumble. Credit to the kid, he did appear to settle somewhat as the game went on, and it was surprisingly easy at times for the Ravens to move the ball.  It will likely be back to Huntley, Dobbins and the running game this week against a solid Bengals run and an average pass defense. Of note, the Bengals are susceptible to longer passing plays; the Ravens averaged over 14 yards per completion last week.
Burrow threw for just 200 yards, down considerably from average, especially considering all of the Ravens' turnovers.  He has struggled against the Ravens defense this year. Baltimore limited Burrow and targets to short gains and a poor completion rate, sacking him twice. The Bengals hardly ran the ball last week.
Look for the Ravens to eat up the clock on the ground, and hopefully not turn the ball over as often.  I don't think they have enough offense to put up many points, but I do think their fine defense can make it very tough on Burrow and the Bengals.  A Ravens win is not likely in the cards, but I'm wagering on the Baltimore to keep it close.  Take the Ravens plus the points.

This will be an interesting match-up between two young QBs. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags got a taste of "lose and it is over" last week, and Lawrence did seem a little jittery vs. the Titans.  He has been a quick study in his brief history so far, and I think he will step up this week.  Etienne and the Jags' running game will be a deciding factor.  The Jags, unlike the Chargers, have some balance in their offense, and the Chargers REALLY struggle against the run.
The Chargers have a fine passer in Herbert, but they may be without Williams this week which takes a little of the juice out of their passing game.  They don't run much.  They could step that up but the Jags are tough vs the run.  The Jags defense, including their weak pass D, has improved as the season progressed. I believe it will be status quo for the Chargers pass-first offense. Can the Jags' pass defense handle Herbert and his targets?  They've averaged 3 sacks a week and have held passers to a 70 rating last three games, and an 89 rate for the season, just one point above LA's seasonal average.
The Chargers really haven't beaten anyone very impressive to get this far.  I am not sold on them as a wild card winner. The Jags have momentum, a little extra rest and have no expectations on them.  They will be at home in front of a delirious crowd.  Take the Jags to cover.  An outright win would not surprise me.

It would be hard to imagine the 49ers not emerging victorious on Saturday but the question is "by how much?"  First off, there is a huge risk of  heavy rain and wind, making for the likelihood of a run-dominated game. The Giants ran 60% of the time in their last game and have had plenty of success with it, averaging 160+ yards in their last three games. The Seahawks' defense doesn't handle the run at all well, so the 49ers would be wise to take advantage irregardless of the weather.  Seattle, and especially Walker has had rush success lately, as the Seahawks have put up even more yards than the 49ers on the ground L3  Seattle will likely have a tougher time moving the ball against an excellent SF rush defense.
The 49er's pass defense, while not exactly struggling lately, has given up more passing yards, a higher completion % and more points lately.  Smith has excellent targets, but his star is not nearly as shiny in recent games, and he will face formidable pass pressure from the 49ers.  Purdy has improved each week and is off a passer rating of 115 in his last three games, but he doesn't exactly air it out.  He is still very much a rookie, and the Seahawks' pass defense has been much better recently, with 5 sacks last week and a passer rating allowed of just 65 in their last three games.
Considering the field conditions, I think this game will be closer than expected.  Carroll will have the Seahawks prepared, and certainly the team from Emerald City are no strangers to rain.  While a win is not likely for the Seahawks, neither is a blow out.  Take Seattle plus the points

TCU seems like a pretty square dog to me. Including the semifinal win over Michigan, they have six wins by eight points or less. Give them credit for getting here, but the Horned Frogs are severely outclassed in this National Championship matchup with Georgia. 

Against Michigan, the Horned Frogs needed two pick-sixes and a pair of turnovers at the goal line. And they still only won by six! They were outgained for the game 528-488.

While Georgia did trail almost the entire game against Ohio State, they actually did outgain the Buckeyes 533-467. And OSU is a much better team than TCU, who may not have its starting running back for this game. 

The Bulldogs have not only won 10 straight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, but they have covered the spread in 9 of those 10 wins. 

I think in a situation like this, it’s typically a good idea to fade the crowd and it’s pretty clear to me that vast majority of people are taking the points in this one. I think that’s a mistake. UGA wins big and repeats as National Champs. 10*