At 3:00pm ET, my NFL Playoff Total Of The Year is on the Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles under. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope and are a big part of the reason for a high total. Both are very capable but neither of them is going to have as big a game as a lot of people will expect. The Eagles intercepted Daniels three times in two games in the regular season. Hurts is playing at less than 100%. The regular season game at Washington went over but the game at Philadelphia did not. Followers will remember that we nailed the under in that game. Barkley is going to be running the ball very frequently as our Robinson and Daniels for Washington. That will help our cause because the clock will keep ticking with each running play. The game at Washington was an exception for the Eagles. It marked the only time in their last 15 games that they allowed more than 23 points. They allow an average of only 17.6 points, 17.2 at home. During the regular season, the Eagles allowed just 278 yards per game. That was best in the NFL and they were the only team to allow less than 300 per game. Play on the under.

At 8:00 pm ET, my NFC Total Of the Week is on Washington and Detroit under. As you can see, this is a very high total. Driving the number so high, we've got 2 high-scoring teams each of them led by a coach who doesn't mind rolling the dice. Most probably haven't noticed but we've also got 2 defenses which are suddenly both playing very well. The Commanders have allowed 20 or fewer points in 3 straight road games. The Lions kept the Vikings to 9 points and made a potent Minnesota offense look bad. They've held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 20 or fewer points and 3 of those teams didn't even get to 10. On the season, despite dealing with injuries, the Lions led the NFL in third-down defense. This one won't be the shootout that the total suggests. Play on the under.

At 8:00pm ET, my Wildcard Rd Total Of The Year is on Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams Under. Everyone had been scoring big points against the Detroit defense but the Vikings managed only 9 points against the Lions. Sam Darnold was not good. He finished 18 of 41 with 0 touchdowns. Minnesota managed only 14 first downs. Now Darnold and the Vikings go up against a Rams defense which has played great for weeks. Throw out the Seattle game, as the Rams treated it like it didn't matter. There was still seeding implications but they gave Stafford and others the day off.) The Rams held each of their previous 3 opponents to less than 10 points. Before the Seattle game, only 1 of the Rams last 5 opponents had scored more than 14 points against them and that was Buffalo. On offense, prior to the Seattle game, the Rams had scored less than 20 points in three straight. The Rams have gone under in each of their last 2 WildCard games. They allowed just 11 points their last home playoff wildcard game. This total is high and this will make 3 straight. Play on the under. ***I was already going to play the under if the game was at LA and I still really like the play after the change of venue to Glendale. I will add that the Rams managed only 10 points and 245 yards when they played here this season.

At 430pm ET, my AFC Total Of The Week is on the Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Over. This is a low total. As a matter of fact, its the lowest of the 6 Wildcard games. A little too low, according to my calculations! The Charger offense has caught fire. LA scored 34, 40 and 34 its past 3 games. The Texans are going to need to score if they want to keep up! The past 3 meetings between the Chargers and Texans finished with 58, 70 and 47 points. This will be another high-scoring game, higher than the low total suggests. Play on the over.

At 7:30pm Et, my NCAAF Total Of The Week is on Notre Dame vs Penn State Over. These defenses are good but this total is still too low. These offenses can't be stopped, even by good defenses. Penn State has scored more than 30 points in each of its last 4 games. Notre Dame scored 23 against Georgia but probably could have scored more if the Bulldogs had forced it to do so. The Fighting Irish average 37.7 points per game. The Nittany Lions average 33.7. Both teams are going to trade points and both will score more than 20. The winner is likely to top 30. That'll get the final score to finish above the low total. Play on the over.

At 8:20pm ET, my NFC Total Of The Month is on Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Under. We're going to see some points on Sunday night but this is an extremely high total. You're going to find out that its too high. This season's first total was 49. Last year's games had totals of 47.5 and 48. The earlier game finished with 60 points, a 31-29 final. But if you look at the stats, they don't suggest the type of offensive shootout you might imagine. The Lions had 19 first downs. The Vikings had 16. Both teams had balanced run/pass stats but neither reached 400 total yards. The Lions only entered the red zone once and the Vikings never even did so. The previous 6 meetings between these teams all finished with 57 or fewer points. Injuries or not, these defenses aren't as bad as the public thinks. This game stays under the enormous total. Play on the under.

My January AFC North Total of the Month is on Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Under. The Ravens are heavy favorites. They have everything to play for and the Browns have nothing. With Bailey Zappe starting at QB, the Browns are going to have real trouble scoring. Actually, that was going to be the case no matter who started. Zappe hasn't played a down this season and is being thrown to the Wolves. The Ravens will score their points but they aren't going to go over this total by themselves. Their last victory over the Browns came by a 28-3 score and a similar final is expected here. Play on the under.

My January Bowl Total Of The Month is on Notre Dame vs Georgia Over. Let me start by saying that these defenses are both really good. Those defenses are a big part of why these teams are where they are right now. Guess what? The offenses are both also really good! Since that stinker against Northern Illinois in early September, the Fighting Irish have scored at least 27 points in every game. Over that 11-game period they averaged 45.24 points! Before the Indiana game, they'd gone over the 30-point mark in 8 straight games. Before its lower-scoring SEC Title game against Texas, the Bulldogs had scored 44, 59 and 31 in their previous 3 games. Stockton has had plenty of time to prepare and he adds a different element to the offense. Both teams are going to score more than 20 and this classic will finish over the low total.

At 3:00pm ET, my Bowl Total Of The Year is on South Carolina vs Illinois Over. The South Carolina Gamecocks are a big favorite for their New Year's Eve game against Illinois. The Gamecocks are going to need to score a lot of points in order to win, let alone cover. It should be pointed out that South Carolina's Kyle Kennard is out. Considering he won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the top defensive player in college football, that's a big hit to the Gamecocks defense. The Illini closed out the regular season by scoring 38 points in each of their final 3 games. Scores were 38-28, 38-31 and 38-16. The last time that South Carolina was a favorite, it scored 56 points. The last time that the Gamecocks were favored in the -7 to -14 range, they scored 34. Four of the past 6 Citrus Bowls have finished with more than 50 points. This one will too! Play on the Over.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South Total Of the Month is on Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under. The Panthers are one of only 2 teams in the NFL to average less than 300 yards of offense per game. They manage just 295.8 yards per game. That's right down there with the Giants. Prior to last week's high-scoring game versus Arizona, Carolina had seen 7 of its previous 8 games finish with fewer than 50 points. Tampa has seen 5 of its last 6 games finish with 50 or less. This season's earlier meeting snuck over the total only thanks to Overtime, a tough loss for those who bet the under. That score was still 16-10 nearly halfway through the 4th quarter. This one won't go to OT and will stay below the total. Play on the under.

AT 8:15pm ET, my NFC West Total Of the Year is on Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Under. The Cardinals may be eliminated from playoff contention but this is still a divisional battle against a team which is fighting for the division title. The Rams are playing stellar defense. Their last 2 games had scores of 12-6 and 19-9. The earlier meeting at Arizona finished with 51. Last year's game at Arizona also finished with 51. But last year's game at LA only produced 35 points and the last 3 meetings at LA have all finished with 45 or less. Play on the under.

At 10:30pm ET, my Bowl Total Of The Week is on Texas A&M vs USC Under. The Trojans are thought of as a high-scoring team which doesn't play defense. Those days are mostly done though. Before getting beaten by Notre Dame, the Trojans were off a 19-13 win over UCLA. Earlier this season, the defense recorded a shutout. The USC defense is going to have to step up as the offense is missing some key contributors. Starting wide receivers Duce Robinson, Kyron Hudson and Zachariah Branch all entered the transfer portal, along with change-of-pace running back Quinten Joyner. Running back Woody Marks and center Jonah Monheim are both out. The Aggies scored only 7 points in their last game but they also held Texas to just 17. They held 10 of their 12 opponents to 24 or fewer points. Play on the under. The last 3 LV Bowls had combined scores of 33, 33 and 21. Play on the under.

At 4:30pm ET, my AFC Total Of the Month is on Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans Under. Like the Chiefs and Steelers in the early game, these teams are both playing on a very short week. Both are playing their 3rd game since 12/15. The Ravens are battling the Steelers for the AFC North crown. The Texans have wrapped up the AFC South. They don't have much to play for and they're down another top receiver after losing Tank Dell last week. He had 6 receptions for 98 yards and a TD before the injury. His loss is huge for Houston. It will lead to some conservative play-calling on Wednesday. The Texans don't want to get embarrassed at home though and we're going to see their defense rise to the challenge of taking on a top team. Two meetings since the start of last season (one regular season, one playoffs) both finished with 44 or fewer points. This one finishes below the high number. Play on the Under.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC South Total Of the Year is on Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Under. The Colts offense is not scoring many points. Indianapolis managed only 13 points last week, zero in the 2nd half. The Colts have now scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Titans know exactly how they feel. They scored 27 last week but that was against a Cincinnati team with a really bad defense. They've still scored 20 or less in 8 of their past 10, including just 6 in the game before the Bengals. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of the NFL for points scored. The defenses have been better than the offenses. The Colts gave up 31 points to Denver. That was a deceiving score though as they only gave up 13 first downs and 193 total yards. The Colts held high-scoring Detroit to 24 points in their last home game. Prior to their game against the high-scoring Bengals, the Titans had allowed only 10 points. They allow the 2nd fewest yards per game of any team in the NFL.

At 4:30pm ET, my AFC North Total Of the Month is on Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under. Quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are both playing very well overall this season. They're both sure to have their moments. Wilson hasn't been great the past 2 games though and Jackson's struggled against the Steelers are well documented. Games between the Steelers and Ravens are primarily about tough, hard-hitting smash mouth football. They're typically close and they're almost always low-scoring. Look at the scores from the last 8 games: 18-16, 17-10, 17-10, 16-13, 16-14, 16-13, 20-19 and 19-14. This season's first meeting stayed well below the total and this afternoon's game is going to do the same. Play on the under.

At 8:15 PM ET, my TNF total of the month is on the Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Under. The Broncos allowed only 13 points last week. They have conceded less than 20 in 4 of their last 5 games. The Chargers had a bad defensive showing last game. They've been stingy all season long before that though and will deliver a much better effort tonight. The Broncos scored 31 points last game but that wasn't because of an amazing offensive effort. As a matter of fact, they managed only 13 first downs and had less than 200 yards of offense. The last 3 games between these AFC West rivals finished with 39, 25 and 31 points. The total for this season's first game was only 37. Tonight's higher total is giving us plenty value. Go with the under.

At 9:00pm Et, my Bowl Total Of the Week is on California vs UNLV Over. The LA Bowl has a history of matching teams from conferences known for their offensive firepower. Last year's teams, UCLA and Boise, combined for 57 points. It's no longer Mountain West versus Pac-12 but its still Mountain West versus the Pac-12 "Legacy Schools," those are the 10 schools which departed the Pac-12. UNLV lost its coach but their interim coach for this game (Del Alexander) was a former receiver who was quoted as saying: "Make sure the guys have fun. Make sure they're locked in on the details for the situations, and then bring it all together in the end." Cal's starting QB won't play but the Bears are still going to have success moving the ball. On defense, Cal allowed 33 or more points in 3 of its final 4 games. Eight of the Rebels last 10 games have finished with at least 52 points. The total has come down, providing value. Play on the over

At 8:00pm ET, my Monday Night Total Of the Year is on Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Under. This is a high total for a game between the Bears and the Vikings. The o/u line was 39.5 for this season's first meeting. Both teams are 8-5 to the under on the season. The Bears scored 13 points last week. Other than the first game against Minnesota where they surprisingly scored 27, the Bears have scored 20 or less in each of their last 6 other games. They average 288.5 yards per game on offense, worst in the entire NFL. Minnesota allows 18.5 ppg and Chicago allows 21.4 ppg. Those are the 6th and 10th best marks in the NFL, entering Week 15. Chicago's last game here had a total of 43 and the final score was 12-10. The Bears held the Vikings to 242 total yards. Play on the under.

AT 8:20pm ET, my NFC Total Of The Year is on Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks Under. This is a very high total for this week's Sunday Night game. It allows us a lot of room to go under. The Seahawks have really elevated their defense in recent weeks. They've held 4 straight opponents to 21 or fewer points and 3 of those teams had 18 or less. Their average number of points allowed over those 4 games was only 15.5. The Packers have played some high-scoring teams lately, Detroit and Miami. So their recent games have been higher-scoring. They've still allowed less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4. The last meeting between these teams produced only 17 total points. Some might be surprised that this will be another lower-scoring game. Go with the under.

At 4:25 PM ET my AFC Total Of The Week is on Indianapolis/Denver under the total. The Broncos are off a high-scoring game against the Browns but they had allowed an average of less than 14 points over their previous 3 games, none of those opponents reaching the 20 mark. The colts are 2-0 to the under the past 2x time that they were underdogs of at least 5 points. They scored only 6 and 13 points in those games. The last time these teams faced each other, no touchdowns were scored. Seven total field goals were kicked in the Colts' 12-9 overtime victory. The previous meeting was a 15-13 Colts victory and the one before that was a 25-13 win by the Broncos. All 3 of those games stayed under and Sunday afternoon's game will as well. Play on the under.

At 8:15 PM ET, my selection is on Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Under. This is a very high o/u line, thanks in no small part to the Bengals entering the game on a 5-0 over run. The large number gives us a lot of "wiggle room." The Cowboys last 4 o/u lines were all 45 or less. Even the Bengals have only had one game all year with a total greater than 48.5. That was against Baltimore, the team which averages more yards of offense than any other team in the league. Baltimore averages an extra 100 yards of offense per game than Dallas. So, the Ravens could keep up with the Bengals but the Cowboys won't likely be able to. If Dallas isn't scoring as much, the Bengals won't be forced to keep piling up the points either. The Cowboys last 3 home games have all finished with 47 or less. Make it 4 in a row after tonight.

At 8:00pm ET, my Conference Championship Total Of The Year is on Penn State vs Oregon under. Both teams were 7-5 to the under in the regular season. Oregon gave up 21 last game but has allowed just 78 points its last 6 games, an average of only 13 per game. Penn State gave up a mere 7 points last game and has conceded only 81 its last 6 games, just slightly more than Oregon. This is only the 2nd time all season that the Nittany Lions were underdogs. The first was their game against Ohio State. It had a total of 47 and finished with only 33 points. Last year's Big Ten title game finished with only 26 points. Play on the under.

At 8:20pm ET, my Sunday Night Total Of the Month is on San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills Under. If you're not experiencing it first-hand, you've probably heard about the snow and cold being felt in much of the country, including Buffalo. As a matter of fact, Bills have asked their fans to help shovel the stadium, for $20/hour. A little bit of cold doesn't affect the game too much. But extreme weather like this can and will. Purdy is questionable for the 49ers. He'd have to be better than Allen but still isn't going to solve SF's offensive issues single-handedly. Either way, the offense will struggle in the cold on Sunday. They're going to need the defense to elevate its level of play. They'll do their best to run McCaffery as much as possible to keep Buffalo on the sidelines. Play on the under.

AT 4:05pm Et, my NFC South Total Of the Month is on Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Under. This is quite a large total for a Carolina game. The Panthers' last 4 o/u lines were 43, 40, 43.5 and 40. The Panthers average only 285.5 yards of offense per game. Only New England at 280.2 ypg is worse. Prior to the 27 points they scored against the Chiefs, the Panthers had scored 24 or less in 7 straight games. Tampa's last 2 games have had final scores of 37 and 43. The last game between these teams finished at 9-0, 3 field goals for the entire game. Tampa had 228 yards of offense and 14 first downs. Carolina had only 11 first downs and just 199 yards of offense. Three of the past 4 meetings have finished with less than 40. Play on the under.

My AFC West Total Of The Year is on Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Under. Last season, these teams played their first game at Las Vegas. That game finished with 48 points. This season, they also played their first game at Las Vegas. That game finished with 47 points. Last year, when the venue changed to chilly Arrowhead Stadium, the score was a much lower 20-14. With today's game also played at Arrowhead, another lower-scoring Game 2 is expected. The Chiefs last game here was a 16-14 final. The Raiders, who will have Aiden O'Connell at QB instead of Minshew (lost for season with injury) have scored 20 points or less in 7 of their last 8 games. After allowing other teams to hang around, the Chiefs' focus will be on delivering a dominant defensive effort. Lots of running plays with the clock ticking and the game moving by very quickly. Play on the under.

At 12:30pm ET, my NFC North Total Of The Year is on Detroit/Chicago Over. The Lions can score points against any defense. They've scored 24 or more points in 8 straight games. They scored more than 30 in 6 of those, more than 40 in 4 of them and more than 50 in two. They are potent enough that they have the potential to go over this number by themselves. That's unlikely but the Bears will chip in plenty to help their cause. Chicago just scored 27 against a good Minnesota defense last week. The Bears had 398 yards of offense, 320 through the air. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has improved dramatically since the Bears fired Shane Waldron and promoted Brown to offensive coordinator in. In two games since the switch, Williams' completion percentage has increased from 61% to 71%, his other stats improving along with the improved completion percentage. Williams' yards per attempt has climbed from 6.1 to 7.3, his pressure percentage has been nearly cut in half (34% to 18%) and he's getting rid of the ball quicker as his average pass time has dropped from 2.9 seconds to 2.42 seconds. These teams faced each other last Thanksgiving Day and the Lions won 31-26. The Bears were up 26-14 in the fourth quarter before Detroit scored the game's final 17 points. Neither team is going to quit in this one either and the final score will again finish above the 50 mark. Play on the over.

At 7:30pm ET, my Total of the Year is on Notre Dame/Army under. Before I was even born, this used to be the biggest game of the year, Army versus Notre Dame from Yankee Stadium! They once had a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup, the second “Game of the Century” of the post World War II era. It ended in a 0-0 tie! They'll get more points than that today but defense will still rule the day. Notre Dame allowed only 15.9 points per game last season and 276 yards. The Irish returned 9 starters from that unit and have picked up right where they left off. Notre Dame is allowing only 11.4 points per game and has allowed 14 or fewer points in five straight games! Only 2 teams are allowing fewer points per game than the Irish and one of them happens to be Army! The Black Knights are conceding only 10.3 points per game, tied with Ohio State for the best in the nation. Both teams rank in the top 6 for yards allowed per game. Enjoy the game and go with the under!

At 8:15pm ET, my AFC North Total Of The Week is on the Pittsburgh Steelers vs the Cleveland Browns Under. This total is low and that will scare some off. Thats fine by me as I made this number 31. The Steelers only allow 16.2 points per game, the 2nd best mark in the NFL. That's exactly what Cleveland averages on offense, 16.2 points per game. That's the 2nd fewest in the NFL. Keep in mind that that Browns averaged 16.2 points against defenses that weren't nearly as good as this one. Likewise, the Steelers allowed 16.2 points, on average, against offenses that are much better than Cleveland. So the Browns aren't likely to even reach their average. Cleveland can still play defense though and is going to be determined to shut down the Steelers. The Browns have scored 14 and 10 points their last 2 games and they have scored 16 or less in 7 of their last 8. Last year's game here had a total of 34.5 and finished with a score of 13-10. Play on the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my MAC Total Of The Week is on Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Under 57. I've had some success with unders in MAC totals, stating the following: "In the past, MAC games had a reputation for being wild, high-scoring shootouts. Those days are mostly gone." This is another MAC total which is feel is too high. I said this about CMU last week: The Central Michigan offense is struggling right now. The Chippewas scored 13 points last game and 7 points in their last road game. They went out and scored 10 points. That's 30 in their last 3 games combined. Western Michigan wasn't much better in its last game. The Broncos scored only 13. The Broncos last visit here had a total of 50 and the final score was 12-10. With both offenses off a game where they trouble scoring this will be another defensive game. Play on the under.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC Total Of The Week is on Baltimore/Pittsburgh under. The weather doesn't look like it will cooperate. Its expected to be unseasonably pleasant for Sunday's game. That's OK. This total is still too high! The last 7 games between these teams had scores of: 17-10, 17-10, 16-14, 16-13, 20-19 and 19-14. See the pattern? All 6 finished with less than 40 points. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh showdowns feature hard-nosed defensive, close games. Harbaugh said this: "We're getting ready to play our best defensive game on Sunday." The Steelers allow 16.2 points a game, second in the NFL in scoring defense. This will be a "typical" Baltimore/Pittsburgh game with the final score staying beneath this high total. Play on the under.

At 8:00pm ET, my ACC Total Of the Year is on Wake Forest/UNC over. Games between these ACC rivals tend to be high-scoring. With both these offenses clicking, that'll be the case again Saturday. North Carolina has scored 35, 41 and 34 points its last 3 games. The Tar Heels have now scored 34 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games, 20 or more in all 8 of those. Wake Forest is off an 82-point game against California, losing 46-36 and giving up 500 yards of offense. The past 3 meetings between these teams had scores of 70, 113 and 112. Very little defense was played in those games. This will be another fast-paced track meeting that finishes over the total. Play on the over.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFC Total Of the Week is on Washington and Philadelphia under. Washington's offense has been much better this season. Jayden Daniels has more than lived up to the hype. Daniels and his teammates haven't faced a defense playing the way this one is though. (Sorry, Steeler fans, it's true.) The Eagles defense enters Week 11 ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed (274.1) per game and tied for fifth in points allowed (17.9) per game. They allowed 6 points last game and are allowing an average of only 13 points over the past 5 games. Three of those 5 games finished with 40 or less. Washington't defense is also better than advertised and has gotten better as the season has progressed. The Commanders have conceded 15 of fewer points in 4 of their past 7. On the short week, look for this divisional battle to be low-scoring.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Total Of the Year is on Central Michigan/Toledo under. In the past, MAC games had a reputation for being wild, high-scoring shootouts. Those days are mostly gone. We saw last week's We saw 3 of the last week's 4 midweek MAC games finish with 48 or fewer points. This one will also stay below the 50 mark. The Central Michigan offense is struggling right now. The Chippewas scored 13 points last game and 7 points in their last road game. Toledo is off a high-scoring 57-point game against Eastern Michigan. That game was still at 28 into the 4th quarter though and then 31 points were scored in the final 12 minutes. That was because it was a competitive (29-28 final) game. This one isn't likely to be as close and the scoring won't go wild in the 4th quarter the same way. Four of Toledo's last 6 games have still finished with 50 or less. Three of the past 4 h2h meetings have stayed below the 50 mark. Play on the under.

At 8:15pm ET my MNF Total Of The Month is on Miami/LA under. I won with the Dolphins when they covered against the Bills last week. This week, I'm shifting to the Miami total. The Rams offense has been better recently. Also, everyone knows that Tua Tagoavailoa makes the Miami offense a lot better. The problem is that when "everyone knows something," the value quickly disappears. In this case, this total is jacked way up. This total is now much higher than it was for Tua's first game back, against Arizona. But Arizona averages more points and more yards than the Rams. I think this number is an over-reaction and has gotten too high. Four of Miami's last 5 road games have finished with fewer than 34 points. The Rams are 3-1 to the under their past 4 games and have allowed 24 or less in 6 straight games. Play on the under.

At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Total Of the Year is on Detroit/Houston over. The Texans are going to need to score a lot of points, if they want to bounce back from last week's loss against the Jets. The Lions average 32.2 points per game, which happens to be the most in the NFL, entering Sunday. The Lions might have only scored 24 last game but they put up 52, 31, 47 and 42 points in their previous 4 games. Both teams rank in the top 11 in the NFL, as far as yards per game. He's still listed as questionable but Houston Nico Collins has been activated from the injured list. If he passes the pregame tests, the expectation is that he'll play. He's a big play threat and makes the Texans offense much better. The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 52 and they combined for 66. This will be another shootout. Play on the over.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South Total Of The Year is on Atlanta/New Orleans under. This is generous number. Take away their first 2 games, which bumped up their average, and the Saints are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. New Orleans has scored 12, 24, 13, 27, 10, 8 and 22 points its last 7 games. That's an average of 16.57, less than 17 per game. Each of their last 3 games has finished with 45 or fewer points. New Orleans played well defensively last game. The Saints gave up just 246 total yards and conceded only 15 first downs. The Falcons just held Dallas to 21 points. Two of their past 3 games have gone to the under. Their offense managed only 310 total yards and 17 first downs last week. The Falcons were better against Tampa the previous week but Seattle held them to just 14 points the week before that. The total is higher than any of the past 7 Saints/Falcons totals. I'm going with the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my SEC Total Of The Year is on Alabama/LSU under. These teams have played pretty high-scoring games against each other the past couple of seasons. This one, being billed as an "elimination game," will be more like 2021. Alabama won 20-14 that year. Alabama posted a shutout last game. It was a 13-0 game at halftime and finished 34-0. Missouri managed only 239 yards. Pretty good when you think about Missouri averaging more than 31 ppg before that. Playing their second straight on the road, the Tigers lost 23-23 last week. Prior to that, they'd played 4 straight unders. Their previous game, they allowed only 10 points. In going 4-0 at home, they've held all 4 visiting teams to 26 or fewer points and to an average of 18.5. The LSU offense rushed for only 24 yards on 23 carries last game and QB Garrett Nussmeier was intercepted 3x in the second half. Coach Kelly said of his QB: "Garrett can't be the guy who feels like he's got to do everything, and part of that has to come from Garrett. A little bit comes from Garrett, a little bit comes from play-calling, a little bit comes from the ability to commit to more balance in the running game. That means blocking better and I don't just mean the five linemen. It's an all-in thing. It's not just one guy giving Garrett more assistance. Everybody's got to be involved in that." More blocking and more running is going to translate to less scoring. Each of Alabama's last 2 games have finished with 41 or less. Play on the Under.

At 9:00pm ET, my Big Ten Total Of The Week is on UCLA vs Iowa Under. Iowa has been an over team this year. Even so, the Hawkeyes are still a running team which plays defense. They have held their last 2 opponents to 14 or less. Now the Hawkeyes face a UCLA team which is 5-3 to the under on the season and which is having an especially difficult time at home. In 3 home games, the Bruins have scored 13, 13 and 17 points. Those were good teams they faced but this is another one. Their last game here had a total of 39.5 and still managed to stay under. As UCLA has had trouble scoring at home, Iowa hasn't scored as many on the road. The Hawkeyes managed only 27 points in their last 2 on the road. They are playing on the West Coast on a short-turnaround. This game will go under.

At 8:15pm ET, my AFC North Total Of the Year is on Cincinnati/Baltimore under. A very high total is being provided for this game. As a matter of fact, its likely higher than anything we'll encounter on Sunday or Monday. The AFC North rivals have played some high-scoring games against each other but none of them had totals listed as high as this one. Three of the Bengals' 4 road games have finished with 51 or fewer points. The Bengals last 2 road games had scores of 21-14 and 17-7. The Ravens allowed only 10 points last week. All 4 of their home games have finished with 53 or fewer points, 3 of those with 51 or less. Quarterbacks will draw a lot of attention but each time ran the ball more than 30x last week. All those running plays will help our cause. This number has gotten too high and I'm going with the under.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Total Of the Week is on Ohio/Kent State under. In the past, MAC games had a reputation for being wild, high-scoring shootouts. Those days are mostly gone. We saw yesterday's 2 MAC games finish with 36 and 48 points. This one will also stay below the 50 mark. Though they still have their main weapons, the Bobcats are dealing with some injuries which test their depth on offense. On defense, Ohio can really slow down weak teams. (With an 0-8 record, the Golden Flashes qualify.) The Bobcats have allowed 3 different opponents to less than 17 points and 4 of them to 20 or less. Kent State scored 0 twice in a row earlier and scored 6 another time. Ohio's last visit here went to Overtime but the final score still stayed comfortably below the total. Ohio will keep KSU to less than 17 and this final score will also go under.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East Total Of The Year is on Washington and NY under. Five of the past 6 games between the Giants and Commanders have finished with 40 or fewer points. They combined for 39 points in Week 2. This will be another low-scoring divisional showdown. The Giants have scored 3 and 7 points in their last 2 home games. They rank 31st in the NFL with an average of 14.6 points per game. On the season, the Giants are 6-2 to the under. The Commanders have allowed 15 points or less in consecutive games and in 4 of their past 5 games overall. Washington's offense has been very good with QB Daniels looking to win the Rookie Of The Year. Daniels was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday with a rib injury though. He'll play but things won't be as easy as he's gotten accustomed to. Go Under.

At 7:30pm ET, my Big Ten Total Of The Month is on Wisconsin vs Iowa Under. Games between these teams tend to follow a similar script from one year to the next. The losing team gets held to 10 points or less. The winning team scores 28 or less. Defense and running the ball reign supreme. The last 4 scores were 15-6 last season, 24-10, 28-7 and 27-7. The Hawkeyes only passed for 37 yards last year but won 15-6 thanks to their defense and 200 yards, on 48 carries, on the ground. Before last week's loss to Penn State, the Badgers had allowed 3, 7 and 6 points in their previous 3 games. Iowa is allowing just 14 points per game at home. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell said: "It's going to be a tough, hard-fought football game that in a lot of ways is probably going to come down to the fourth quarter." Play on the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my AAC Total Of The Year is on Tulane and Charlotte under. With Charlotte off 3 straight games which went over the total and with Tulane having gone to the over in 2 of 3, we're getting a pretty high number to work with. The 49ers are going to have a difficult time scoring. Though it comes off a high-scoring game against North Texas, Tulane allows 22.2 points and 342 yards per game. Solid numbers. But if we look just at the 3 games where the Green Wave were double-digit favorites, it shows that they are allowing an average of only 10 points per game and 283 yards. The last 2 times that the Green Wave allowed 20 or or more points, they responded by holding their next opponent to 10. The last time that they allowed 30 or more, the Green Wave held their next opponent (USF) to 12 first downs and 26 yards on the ground, only 201 total. Tulane ran the ball 50x. The Green Wave will employ a similar formula of dominant defense and a lot of running the ball on offense. The 49ers have been going over on the road but 2 of their 3 home games have gone under. Go with the under.

At 4:25pm ET, my #1 October Total Of the Month is on Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Over. I won with the Chiefs under last week but their game still finished with 46 points. They scored 28 themselves and they scored 26 the previous game. This week's total is much lower than last week's. As a matter of fact, it's the lowest Chiefs total this season. The Chiefs offense will have a breakout game. Three of the Raiders' last 5 opponents have scored 32 or more points. Other than a loss the last time they played, KC's last loss of any kind, the Chiefs had scored 30 or more points 8 straight times against the Raiders. The Chiefs offense should get a big boost with the expected debut of DeAndre Hopkins. He went over 1000 yards for the 7th time in his career, just last season. The Raiders offense may not be good but they still average more than 18 points per game at home. They scored 20 last time they faced the Chiefs and have scored 79 their last 4 games against them. This score will finish over this low number. Play on the over.

At 7:00pm ET, my SBC Total Of The Week is on Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Over. The total was set at 62.5 when these teams faced each other last season. The previous year, the total was set at 67. This one is far lower. It'll be too low. Georgia Southern's last 2 road games finished with 59 and 65 points. Earlier this season, the Eagles had a game which finished with more than 100 points! On the season, they are averaging 30 points per game. After a slow start, the Monarchs are averaging 28 ppg their last 4 games, including 30 and 37 against Bowling Green and Coastal Carolina. Both teams will trade points and both will get to at least 28-30. I've got this game finishing with 60 or more. Play on the over.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFL Total Of The Week is on Baltimore/Tampa under. Both teams have played some high-scoring games this month and those results have helped bring this total up. For some perspective, Tampa's last 4 games had totals of 42, 43, 43 and 40.5. These offenses are quite good. They both like to run the ball and neither are that easy to run against. As a matter of fact, the Baltimore run defense is ranked number 1 in the NFL, allowing 59.0 yards rushing per game. Baker Mayfield said this about Baltmore's defense: "They're physical. They want to be the bully, but they have those guys that set the tone for them on all three levels." Mayfield knows. He's faced Baltimore 9x over his career, posting an ugly 80.4 QB passer rating with 11 interceptions in 9 games. Only 2 of those 9 games finished with more than 50 points. Both of Lamar's 2 career starts versus Tampa finished with less than 50 points and they averaged 40.5. This game will stay under the big total. Play on the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my Big Ten Total Of The Year is on Iowa/MSU under. Something's got to give. Iowa is 5-1 to the over this season. Michigan State is 5-1 to the under. The Spartans under streak will be the one which prevails today! Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith said this of the Hawkeyes: "I think it looks like an Iowa team that plays a physical brand of football. You know, running the ball, high-end defense ... " The Spartans have only scored 36 points their last 3 games, just 17 their last 2. Off back to back games against Ohio State and Oregon, the Hawkeyes wont seem so bad to the Spartans. In their last home game against a team which wasn't Ohio State, they recorded a shutout. The Hawkeyes just held Minnesota to 16 points and they allowed 14 in their last road game against an opponent which wasn't Ohio State. The total may seem low but last year's game had a total of only 36.5 Five of the past 6 meetings finished with 42 or less and 4 of those finished with 40 or less. Tonight's game will also finish below the 40 mark.

At 8:15pm ET, my TNF Total Of The Month is on Denver/New Orleans under. The total might seem low but its really not low enough. The Saints are missing their QB and #1 receiver. Rookie Spencer Rattler was forced to throw to catch up against the Bucs but that's not how New Orleans wants it. The Saints will look to employ a more conservative gameplan tonight. The Broncos have a rookie QB of their own. Though it may seem that Bo Nix has had some quality moments, he still has only the 34th best passer rating (73.7) in the NFL. The Broncos make up for it with their defense. They allowed just 10 and 9 points in their last 2 road games. They rank in the top 5 of the NFL for points allowed and yards allowed. The Saints' defensive numbers aren't as good but you know that Saints' coach Allen will, Payton's former defensive coordinator, will have his defense fired up for a bounce-back effort. Also, the Denver offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL and won't be capable of taking advantage of any New Orleans defensive deficiencies. With 2 rookies behind center and two coaches that know each other well, this game will feature a lot of running the ball and will be a low-scoring defensive battle. Go with the under.

At 7:30 ET, my Sun Belt Total Of The Year is on Troy and South Alabama over. Troy comes in off 3 consecutive games that stayed under. That's a good thing as it helps to keep this total reasonable. Important to understand that all those games were at home. The Trojans have allowed 38 points in each of their road games. Their last time on the road was a 38-21 loss at Iowa. The Trojans had some success moving the ball through the air at Iowa and the defense they will encounter today isn't anywhere close to as good as the one they faced that day. South Alabama allows 442.3 yards per game, bottom 15 in the country. The Jaguars allowed 52 points in one game and 42 in another. Their defense stinks but they can flat out score on offense, as they scored 87 in their last home game and they scored 38 and 48 points on two other occasions. South Alabama is going to get 38+ and Troy is going to get 20+. They will combine for more than 60 and send this game over the low total. Play on the over.

At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Total Of The Month is on the Bills and Jets over. These may be good defenses but this total is too low. Even off a bad game, the Bills still average 28.4 points per game. Josh Allen has vowed to be better. The Jets average 18.3 but they've hit 24 twice, including once in their only divisional game. Like Allen, Rodgers is vowing to improve. Rodgers and the Jets offense will benefit from the change in play-calling. In addition to the firing of head-coach Saleh, the Jets are handing the play-calling duties to passing game coordinator Todd Downing, as opposed to Nathaniel Hackett. The Bills have allowed 23 and 35 points their last 2 games. Each of their last seven games, including all five this season, has finished with at least 41 points. Monday's game will continue that streak. Play on the Over.

At 11:00pm Et, my Mountain West Total Of The Year is on Boise/Hawaii over. The last time that the Broncos played here the score was 40-32. This year's Boise team is led by a running back who can't be stopped. If you haven't seen any clips of Ashton Jeanty, you might want to take a minute to do so. He's a special player. A Heisman front-runner, he's a near lock to find the end zone multiple times each game. The entire Boise attack is downright explosive. The Broncos lead the nation with 50.6 points per game. No other team is averaging 50. They are 3rd overall in total yards with 537.6. Having scored 62 points last game, they are capable of exceeding this total by themselves. The Broncos also give up a lot of points themselves. All 5 opponents have scored at least 14 and all 4 FBS teams scored 24 or more. Even Georgia Southern scored 45 against them. They are 5-0 to the over and that streak will continue for at least one more game. Hawaii lost 27-24 last week but scored 36 in its last home game. The Broncos have scored 40, 52, 49 and 54 their last 4 visits here. They will not be stopped tonight and Hawaii will score plenty of its own. Go with the over.

At 8:20 ET, my October Non-Conf. Total Of The Month is on Dallas/Pittsburgh over. I won with the under in the Cowboys last game. That was a divisional battle on a short week. Plus, the total was higher. This non-conference clash will be a lot higher-scoring. Dallas doesn't effectively run the ball. That leads to a lot of passing and clock stoppages. CeeDee Lamb gets in a zone and he and Prescott are nearly unstoppable. Before the low-scoring NYG contest, every Dallas game had finished with at least 50 points. And those 3 games averaged more than 55. Some key defenders are out on both sides, including pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence . Dallas also doesn't effectively stop the run. That will help the Steelers, as their effective running game will set up their passing attack. The Steelers are off a 27-24 game against the Colts. Fields had a big game and he also had a great game (17 of 23, 151 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 60 rushing yards and a rushing TD) with a 120 QB rating when he previously faced Dallas. The final score was 49-29. This will be another high-scoring game. Play on the over.

At 7:30pm ET, my Big 12 Total Of The Year is on Houston/TCU over. The Cougars have been shut out in back-to-back games, the first time that's happened to them since 1994. It's not happening a 3rd time in a row! Not against a TCU team which has surrendered 128 points over its past 3 games. Houston's 2 shutouts and overall string of unders to start the season has brought this total way down. When these teams squared off against each other last year, the total was 64. TCU had 564 yards and 36 points in that game and this year's offense is still potent. The Horned Frogs have scored 34, 45, 34, 42 and 38 points this season, an average of 38.6 points per game. Facing a struggling instate opponent on ESPN, the Frogs will be happy to run up the score. They will score big and the Cougars will help contribute to the our cause. Play on the over.

At 9:00pm ET, my CUSA Total Of The Year is on Sam Houston St vs UTEP Over. The Bearkats returned 8 starters on the offensive side of the ball this season. The veteran unit has scored 40, 31 and 31 points its last 3 games. They've gone over the 30 mark in 4 of 5 games. They also allowed 39 points last week and they gave up 45 the last time that they were on the road. The Bearkats should absolutely exceed the 30 mark for the 5th time in 6 games as UTEP has allowed 27 or more points in every game. The Miners scored 24 in their only home game. These teams combined for 71 points against each other last October. UTEP's 37 points was the most it scored all season. The Miners arguably have a better offense than they did last year and last year's big showing against Sam Houston State will provide confidence. This game will finish well over the total. Play on the over.

At 8:15 ET, my NFC South Total Of The Month is on Atlanta/TB under the total. The pattern the past 2 seasons between these divisional rivals has been to play a low-scoring game against each other early in the season and a higher scoring rematch later on. Last year, the first meeting between these teams finished with a score of 16-13. The previous year, the first meeting finished at 21-15. This will be another low-scoring battle. Tampa just held the Eagles to 16 points last game. The Eagles only had 227 total yards and 16 first downs. As a matter of fact, the 227 yard effort was the Eagles fewest yards since October 14, 2021, when they gained just 213 yards. (That was also against the Bucs.) The Eagles' 114 net passing yards was also their fewest since that same game in 2021. In their only road game, the Bucs held Detroit to just 16 points. Atlanta has also playing solid defense. The Falcons last game went over but their first 3 all stayed under the total. Overall, Falcon games are averaging only 40 combined points. Play on the under.

At 8:20 ET, my AFC Total Of The Month is on Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Under. We're treated to a great game on Sunday night. The Bills have been the most impressive team through 3 weeks. They're 3-0 and their last 2 games haven't been close. Can the Ravens hand them their first loss? Of course they can. Will they? I'm not certain. I do fully believe that the Ravens will slow them down though. Buffalo has been scoring a lot of points but the reality is that the Bills are averaging just 329 yards of offense. That ranks only 13th. That's only partly a result of being able to take their foot off the gas when leading. They've also benefitted from a lot of short fields. The Ravens are going to make things a lot more difficult. They just really slowed Dallas last game. They lead the league in rushing yards allowed. Teams haven't been able to run against them and that makes throwing a lot more difficult. With only 16 points allowed per game, the Bills defense has also been thriving. The last 3 h2h games between the Bills and Ravens finished with 41, 20 and 43 points. All three went to the under. So does Sunday night's game.

At 4:25pm, my AFC West Total Of The Month is on KC/LA over. I won with the Chiefs under in their last game. That was against a stingy Atlanta team and the total was quite a lot higher. I don't think the Chargers are as good defensively as the Falcons (right now) and this number is quite a lot lower. Accordingly, I will now be backing the over. Much will be made of Herbert's questionable status. Of course, he's very important but it's also important to recognize that the Chargers defense is a mess right now. This is a team with numerous defensive injuries. Mahomes will take the opportunity to get himself right. Nine of the past 10 meetings have finished with 41 or more points and six of the last 7 finished with at least 48 points. Notably, the only Chiefs/Chargers game which was low-scoring was one where the Chiefs rested Mahomes, Kelce and other starters. They'll have the "A-lineup" in the game for this one and they'll ensure it finishes with more than enough to get us over this low number.

At 4:25pm ET, my Non-Conf. TOW is on Baltimore/Dallas under. Both teams have a good offense. Both also have a good defense. With both teams having been involved in some high-scoring games already, the total is quite high. None of the past 4 head-to-head meetings have had totals of greater than 45. The Ravens have three new starters on their offensive line and that will hinder their offense. Dallas will be better defensively than it was against the Saints. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said this about the run defense: "We made some technique adjustments that we need to be better at," "We can't get gapped, and we were gapped time and time again. That puts more pressure on your second-level defenders, obviously your linebackers and our primary support element. But yeah, we have to. It's that first step, the discipline, playing the technique, and making sure the fit behind them is in order. We definitely were not clean and we weren't consistent." Quarterbacks are both excellent but running the ball will still be a key for both teams. The Cowboys only gave up 35 or more points twice last season. They allowed 13 and 17 points in the following games, both going to the under. We will see a hard-hitting game with the final score staying below the total.

At 8:00pm ET, my Total Of The Month is on the Over in the Michigan State and Boston College game. Low number. All 3 of the Eagles' games have had o/u lines in the 50s. The o/u line for the Spartans was 53.5. last game. With both teams expected to score more than 20, this low number won't take much to get over. The Spartans have been putting up bigger numbers progressively. They scored 16 in Week 1, 27 in Week 2 and 40 last week. Boston College scored 28 and 21 and its 2 road games, at Missouri and Florida State, and 56 points in the only home game. This is an improved Eagles offense which returned nine starters from last season including QB Castellanos, who has 9 TD passes against 2 interceptions. Both teams will have success on offense and the final score will finish above the low number.

At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Night Total Of The Year is on New England and New York under the total. This total might appear low but there is still plenty of room to go under. The Patriots are averaging 300 yards of offense per game but they'll be unlikely to match that against a very good Jets' defense. The Jets are averaging just 265.5 yards of offense. Only 5 teams are worse. Allowing just 291 yards per game, the Patriots defense is playing well. Their 16.5 points allowed per game is 5th best in the NFL. The last 3 meetings between these teams had scores of 10-3, 15-10 and 17-3. The Patriots had only 6 first downs and 119 yards in the last game. New York wasn't all that much better. This sets up to be another tough defensive battle with frequent running plays keeping the clock moving and drives ending in punts and field goals as opposed to touchdowns. Play on the Under.

At 8:20 ET, my #1 Total Of The Month is on Chicago/Houston Under. Both teams enter at 1-0. Chicago is off a 24-17 win over Tennessee, while Houston posted the 29-27 road win at division rival Houston. Both scores could have been lower. The Houston score was only 15-13 into the 4th quarter. Twenty-eight points were scored in the final 14 minutes. Chicago's defense led the charge in its Week 1 victory, with TJ Edwards posting a team-high 15 total tackles. The Bears allowed just 244 total yards. The Chicago offense was even worse though. As a matter of fact, the Bears managed only 148 total yards and just 11 first downs. So, their 24 points scored was misleading. They will try and take pressure off their young QB with a more effective ground game this week. CJ Stroud had 234 passing yards and two TD's in Houston's Week 1 win. But it was RB Joe Mixon who carried the offensive load with 159 rushing yards and a TD. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense, look for the time to keep ticking and the combined final score to stay under.

At 7:30pm ET, my Non-Conf TOW is on ASU/Texas State under. The Sun Devils have been better than advertised up to this point, entering 2-0 SU and ATS. In Week 1 they beat Wyoming 48-7, before then pulling away for the 30-23 home victory over Mississippi State. I won with the under in that game and feel that the number is generous again for this game on a short week. ASU has been great defensively and as it now hits the road for the first time this season and as a member of the Big 12, I think that carries over here. Texas State is also 2-0 SU, most recently pounding UTSA 49-10 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. UTSA was held to just 334 yards and went just 4-13 on third down. The Sun Devils are led by Sam Leavitt, who has only completed 57.1 percent of his passes, but so far he hasn't had to be great, as the defense has conceded an average of just 15 PPG. Look for this one to be decided by field position and in the trenches with the final score staying below the large number.

At 1:00pm ET my NFC South TOM is on Carolina and NO to go under the total. Clearly, this is an important early season game for both of these NFC South hopefuls. I'm not 100% positive who in fact will win cover the spread in this game, but whoever does, it will be because of having the better defensive unit, as I do indeed expect this total to fall under the posted number. Dave Canales is now directing the show in Carolina, with Bryce Young once again back under center. Canales is known as an offensive coach but he's not working with much and its going to take time to implement his schemes. The Saints are led by Derek Carr for a second straight year. He was far from amazing last year and Saints fans are already talking about who will replace him. These teams of course met twice last year, with New Orleans coming out on top of each. Each was a lower-scoring battle, with the Saints holding on for the 20-17 victory in Week 2 on the road, before then winning 28-6 at home in December. Nothing is going to change here as far as the pace and tempo, with the improved New Orleans defense setting the tone. This number is high, the play is the under.

The SEC invades the Big 12 in this interesting matchup on Saturday night and in my opinion, this total is too high. Arizona State is off a dominant 48-7 win over Wyoming at home last week, looking pretty good on both sides of the ball in its Big 12 debut. It has no issues at all in covering the 6.5-point spread, but as good as it looked offensively, it was likely even better on the defensive side of the ball in holding the Cowboys to just the one TD. The Sun Devils are improved defensively from last year, bigger and deeper on that side of the ball. I fully expect last week's strong defensive play to carry over here at home vs. this opponent who is also tough on that side of the ball. Mississippi State was a 26.5-point favorite in its home game vs. Eastern Kentucky and it went on to annihilate its opponent by a score of 56-7. The Bulldogs also looked fantastic on both sides of the ball, but now here on the road for the first time, I say it's Mississippi State's offense, still in its first year in a new system and working with a brand new offensive line, that takes a step back. The under has been highly profitable in ASU non-conference home games over the past several seasons and this number gives a lot of room to work with. Play on the Under.

At 7:30 ET, my ACC TOM is on BC/FSU Over. We have an exciting ACC matchup here with Boston College on the road to take on Florida State, which is off a titanic 24-21 road loss at Georgia Tech as a ten-point favorite in Week 0, and in my opinion, this one sets up to be a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. With the home side now motivated to bury Boston College and to erase the stink of that Week 1 collapse, I am expecting Florida State to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and that this overall faster tempo will help in pushing the total over the number before it's all said and done. Mike Norvell is a good coach and I expect him to have his team ready to bounce back here. Boston College has a new coach in Bill O'Brien, who came over previously as the Patriots offensive head coach. The Eagles gave the Seminoles everything they could handle last year, falling 31-29 as 27.5-point underdogs, and in my opinion, everything points to a similar higher-scoring shootout here as well. Play on the Over

At 8:00pm ET, my August TOM is on Nevada/SMU Under the total. SMU is a big favorite and will put up big points. The Mustangs won't get over this number themselves though and they aren't going to have things quite as easy as expected. Nevada's new coach Jeff Choate knows his defense as does new defensive coordinator Kane loane. Choate was a co-defensive coordinator at Texas and loane was the co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach at Boise. They will have the Wolf Pack improved on defense. Offense may be a different matter. Nevada averaged only 17 points last year. Favored by a similar amount, the Mustangs won their opener 38-14 last year. This one should play out much the same. I've got it at 37-10. Play on the Under.

This is not the same Kansas City team that faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl 4 years ago. This year's Chiefs are a defensive team. That's how they got here. They allowed 17.3 points a game in the regular season and they're allowing just 13.7 ppg in the playoffs.

San Francisco can make the same claim. The 49ers allowed 17.5 ppg in the regular season, the fewest of any NFC team. Though the playoff numbers aren't as impressive, you just saw their defense stiffen and hold the Lions to 7 second half points.

The Chiefs have now seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with 46 or fewer points. Only 1 of their last 17 games has finished with more than 48. This will not be a high scoring game and the total is too high. Go with the Under!

The Chiefs went over the total in their game against the Bills. Depending on the time and place, the Ravens game either landed right on the total or went over it. With those games having quite a lot of points, Sunday's AFC Championship O|U line is quite high. Too high.

We're talking about the top 2 scoring defenses in the NFL. In the regular season, Baltimore allowed 16.5 points a game. KC allowed 17.3. They've also allowed the fewest points in the playoffs. The Ravens allowed 10 points. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5.

These teams are going to pound the rock, especially the Ravens. It's not always conventional but they run more than any team. They ran 42 times last week against Houston. That keeps the clock moving and under the total on Sunday.

The Buccaneers were involved in a shootout with the Texans back in Week 9. The final score was 39-37 as the game turned wild in the 4th quarter with 31 points. That was the only time all season that Tampa allowed more than 27 points. On the season, the Bucs allowed just 19.1 points, tied for 6th best. They have also really turned it up in recent weeks. They held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards in the Wildcard Rd and they allowed less than 12 points a game over the final 3 games of reg. season. In the final game, they pitched a shutout.

Tampa coach Todd Bowles said this of his defense: "We've gotten tougher over the course of the past few weeks. Everybody has finally gotten back and playing at the same time. ... Communication has gotten a lot better, everybody's trusting each other next to them and they're playing for each other."

The Lions defense held the Rams to 6 second half points last week. They also held the Bucs to 6 points, a 20-6 win, during the regular season. Tampa had only 13 first downs and 251 total yards. That total was only 44. This one is a lot higher. Too high. Go with the Under.

The Texans have looked pretty good but they are now on the road and facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. No team allowed fewer points than the 16.5 ppg allowed by the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans held the Browns to 14 points and 324 yards. They weren't dominant defensively like the Ravens but ranked in the top half of all defenses for points and yards allowed.

In addition to allowing the fewest number of points, the Ravens led the league in rushing. They will keep the clock ticking and the Houston offense on the sidelines. Points will not come easily in this game. Go with the Under.

The Eagles offense stumbled down the stretch. The Eagles scored 10 points last game and that marked the 4th time in 6 games that they failed to reach the 20 point mark. The injury to Brown, their top receiver, is a big blow to the offense.

The Bucs got here by playing defense. They allow only 19.1 points a game while scoring just 20.5. Both quarterbacks are playing at less than 100%.

The Eagles won 25-11 when the teams met in the regular season. That was when Philadelphia was scoring with ease. The Eagles won't get that many this evening and the Bucs are likely to also have trouble scoring. The line is generous. Go with the Under.

The Chiefs transformed themselves into a defensive team this year. The offense wasn't as potent and the defense picked up the slack. The Dolphins were explosive most of the season but their offense slowed down the stretch. Those are the biggest reasons why we're now working with a total in the low/mid 40s, as compared to a total of 51.5 when these teams faced each other back in November. That's a big drop. Too big!

It'll be cold but this is still Patrick Mahomes vs. Tua Tagovailoa. Mahomes still has Kelce to throw to and Tagovailoa's top target, Tyreek Hill will be playing his first game back at Arrowhead. These are some of the best offensive players on the planet and they won't be stopped by the cold.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on offense but their defense is severely depleted. They've given up 77 points in their last 2 games alone. Their games average more than 52 points. This one will finish over the low total! ***WILDCARD TOY***

Both these teams got a lot better as the season progressed. The Bears started terribly but have currently won back-to-back games and have victories in 4 of their last 5. The Packers entered November with a 2-5 record but now find themselves at 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny.

A big part of the reason for the improvement comes on the defensive side. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed fewer than 20 points four times. They have 16 takeaways during that time. In fact, the Bears defense now leads the NFL in interceptions.

The Packers just held the Vikings to 10 points to close out 2023. Minnesota managed just 211 yards.

The last meeting at Lambeau finished with 37 points. With both offenses missing some important players, the final score will again stay below the total! ***NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH***

Still angry about last week's controversy, the Lions say they want to win. The Vikings technically still have hope. Realistically, however, this game likely doesn't mean much. The Vikings won't be going to the playoffs and the Lions will be locked into the #3 seed.

Nick Mullens is back at QB and he threw 4 picks last time these teams met. He will miss throwing to Hockensen. The reliable tight-end had 4 receptions for 58 yards in the first meeting.

For all the bluster, I'm projecting a lower scoring game. Detroit is off a 20-19 loss. Minnesota managed only 10 points last week and has scored just 71 total points over the last 5 games, an average of 14. Vikings are 5-3 to the under on the road. This one will also stay under! ***EARLY RISER***

First game went over but these teams are not the same ones that faced each other at beginning of the season. Both offenses are missing a lot of important weapons. First game had a total of 40.5 This one is much higher. That gives us a lot more room to maneuver.

The Texans defense has come to life. Last week, Houston allowed only 3 points. They gave up just 11 first downs and 187 total yards. Last road game, the Texans allowed only 16 points.

The Colts last 3 games have all finished with 43 points or less. They are going to want to run the ball. The Texans are strong at stopping the run. This will add up to a low-scoring defensive battle. ***AFC TOM***

This is obviously a very low total. Too low! Playing at a very fast pace, the Volunteers average 31.5 points and their games average 53.5. They scored 48 last game and allowed 38 and 36 in their previous 2 games.

The Volunteers had a game back in mid-October which finished with 33 points. Other than that, every other one of their games produced at least 43 points. The Vols QB (Milton) opted-out but his replacement (Iamaleava) is a bigtime player who will assume the starting role next season. Offensively, they're still in good shape. However, the Tennessee secondary did take a lot of hits and is depleted.

The time off will allow Iowa's offense time to prepare. Again, Tennessee's defense isn't 100%. The Hawkeyes have scored 21, 17, 49 and 27 their past 4 bowl games. Even if they get 14-17 here, which they will, the Volunteers will be able to do the rest. ***BOWL TOM***

Detroit has clinched the division but these teams are both still alive in the Wildcard hunt. The winner of this game will have a reasonable chance. The loser will pretty much have no hope. I'm not going to speculate on who wins. Instead, I'm going with the over.

The Packers are 5-0 to the over their last 5 games. Each of those games had at least 46 points. The last one had 63.

The Vikings are 2-0 to the over their last 2 games. Both finished with more than 50.

This season's first meeting was low-scoring. That also happened last year. The second game was much higher-scoring, finishing with 58 points last New Year's Day. This number is too low. Go with the Over. ***NFC North TOM***

It's a low number. Not low enough. These are two of the best defenses in football. Neither offense is consistent.

The Jets offense is especially anemic. They managed to score 30 in each of their last 2 home games but they scored 0 last time that they were on the road. They average just 12 points per road game.

Cleveland home games are lower-scoring than Clev. road games. The Browns allow only 13.1 points per game here, scoring just 20.5.

The Browns have allowed less than 300 yards in five of their past six games. The Browns rank 1st against the pass (160.1 yards per game), 1st in total defense (260.3 yards per game), 1st in yards per play (4.46 yards) and 1st in interception rate (3.46 percent).

With Flacco and Semian projected to be behind center, this game goes under. ***TNF TOM***

USC games mostly went over the total this season. Their final 2 games did go under though and this isn't the same team that was flying over at the start of the season. Nearly 20 Trojam players have opted out, including Caleb Williams. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner, they'll have a QB (Miller Moss) making his first start. That's obviously a pretty big deal. The Cardinals can really play defense. They allow 307.4 yards per game, 16th in the country, entering the bowl season. They give up only 19.7 points a game. Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks) is an elite defensive end who will give the inexperienced USC pivot problems. The Cardinals are without some of their own top offensive players. Running back Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 15 touchdowns) and wide receiver Jamari Thrash (63 catches, 858 yards) both opted out out to focus on the NFL draft. The Cardinals scored only 6 points last game. This is a chance for the USC defense to prove its better than the stats suggest. Go with the Under! ***BOWL TOY***

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 50 points. Both teams allow more than 24 points a game. These teams play again in New York in 2 weeks. That game might be low-scoring but this one won't be. The Eagles are 5-1 to the over at home. Their only game which didn't go over the total here still finished with 48 points. Their other 5 home games had scores of 62, 65, 51, 71 and 61. The Giants have played 2 divisional games since the start of November and both finished with 50 or more points. Go with the Over! ***NFC EAST TOM***

Given the Patriots' offensive woes, it would be pretty easy to make a case for the under. New England ranks last in the league in points per game. That's been factored into the total though. This is the lowest O|U line on the board. Its lower than yesterday's game. Its lower than any today and its lower than any tomorrow. Next Thursday's game between the Jets and Browns has opened with a similarly low number. That's 2 great defenses though. The Patriots don't fall into that category. The Broncos certainly don't. Denver just allowed 42 points last game. The Broncos allow more than 25 points per game, the Patriots allow more than 21. Five of Denver's last 6 games have finished with at least 39. This is number is too low! ***SNF TOY***

This season's first game had a final score of 16-10. Saturday's game will also be low-scoring. This is a late December divisional game. Both banged-up offense is led by a backup quarterback. Browning has impressed but he will be without Ja'Marr Chase. Over their last 5 games, the Steelers have scored 10, 16, 10, 18 and 13 points. The defense struggled last week but had previously held 8 of 9 opponents to 21 or less. Both defenses are dealing with some injuries but both will come to play. Rudolph's last start finished with 32 points, a 16-16 tie. This game will have a lot of running plays and that's going to keep the score down. Go with the under. ***AFC NORTH TOY***

Total has come down and that's providing us with value. Marshall games average more than 51 points. UTSA games average more than 56! UTSA has scored 34 or more in 7 of the last 8 games, going over 40 in 4 of those. Marshall combined with for 56 points last game and is only a month removed from a 71 point game with Georgia Southern. Last 3 Frisco Bowls have had 92, 62 and 67 points. This game goes over! ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 51 points. Seattle games average 46. The Eagles offense is very difficult to stop but their defense has allowed 33, 42 and 34 points their last 3 games. Similarly, Seattle has allowed 28, 41 and 31 points its last 3. Both defenses saw some important players miss practice this week. The Eagles are healthy on offense. The Seahawks hope to have Geno Smith back to lead their offense. The extra day's rest helps his chances. Smith or Lock, the Seahawks know they are going to need a lot of points. This one goes over! ***NFC TOW***

The Jets offense has had its moments but has mostly been inconsistent. Before going overboard about their 30 point effort against Houston, remember that they scored 8, 13, 6, 12, 6 and 13 points their previous 6 games. The Miami offense is dangerous but NY has the defense to slow them. The Jets rank in the top 5 in the NFL for yards allowed. The Dolphins defense is better than the general public realizes. The Dolphins allowed 2 touchdowns in the final 3 minutes last game but they had only given up 14 for the first 57 minutes of that game. Before that, they gave up 15, 13 (to the Jets) and 13 in 3 previous games. They are a top 10 defense for yards allowed. Last season, the game at NY finished with 57 points but the rematch in Miami was far lower-scoring, finishing with only 17 points. This season the game at NY finished with 47. Once again, the rematch wiull be far lower-scoring. Go with the Under! ***AFC East TOY***

The Lions scored only 13 points against Chicago last week. Now they take on a Denver defense which just allowed 7 points. The Broncos have been stingy for the past couple of months. Before holding the Chargers to 7, they allowed 19, 17, 9, 22, 20, 12 and 22 points. That's an average of 16 points allowed over their past 8 games. Although the defense has played well, the Broncos tend to have trouble scoring on the road. They've scored 24 or fewer points in every road game but one, averaging 20.7 points and only 191.3 yards of offense. 8 straight Denver games have finished with 46 or less. Go with the Under! ***Non-Conf TOM***

I played on the Chargers in this season's earlier game. It had an O|U line of 49 points. This one is much, much lower. The biggest difference is that Herbert played in the first game and that he may not in this one. He's questionable at the time of this writing. Coach Staley said Monday: "There’s a lot of information that we’re gathering right now, but he's as tough as they come. We’re gonna make sure that whatever it is, we’re going to do what’s best for Justin long term." Remember that Herbert was only 13 of 24 for 167 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the first game. He did add 2 rushing TDs but still his performance wasn't one of his best. But its because of him, primarily, that the total has come down so much. That's giving us value on the over. Of course, Herbert's not the only factor. The Raiders scoring 0 points last week also works in our favor to bring the line down. The last 9 meetings have all finished with 41 or more. With or without Herbert, this number is too low! ***AFC West TOY***

In my opinion, this number is too low. Both defenses are mediocre, both teams allow more than 20 points a game. The Vikings offense stalled last game but had previously been firing on all cylinders. The Raiders just had three straight games AFC teams, their most recent finishing with 48 points. The three games came against two playoff teams in KC and Miami and a really good defensive team in the New York Jets. Last time they faced an NFC opponent, the Vikings scored 30. Both offenses will have areas where they can enjoy success against these defenses. All 4 meetings over the years finished with at least 44 points. I've got this one penciled in for at least that many once again. ***NFC TOY***

If not for all the low-scoring primetime games, we could be looking at a higher Sunday Night total. As it is, we've got a nice low number. KC scored 31 last game. The game finished with 48 points. The Chiefs have scored 31 or more in 2 of their last 3 against the Packers. Green Bay scored 29 last game. Packers coach Matt LaFleur played things more aggressively after expressing remorse for previously being too conservative with his play-calling. The game finished with 51 points. That makes 3 straight GB games that have finished with at least 42 points. This one finishes with more than that! ***Non-Conf TOW***

Games between these teams at Carolina have been lower-scoring but games in Tampa have been higher-scoring. Carolina's last five visits to Tampa have finished with scores of 41, 63, 48, 58 and 54 points. The last 4 of those all went over the total. Last season's game at Carolina had 24 points but the game at Tampa had 54. This season, Tanpa games average 39.9 points. Carolina games average 42.2 points. Getting rid of Frank Reich can only help the offense. The emphasis will be on improving scoring. The final score will finish above the low total! ***NFC South TOY***

Michigan averages 37.6 points a game. That's more than this total is set at. It's entirely possible that the Wolverines exceed this total all by themselves. They're favored by more than 3 touchdowns. So, they're going to expected to score more than that. Remember they scored at least 30 in every game but one. Iowa is all about defense. That we know. But the Hawkeyes also know that they will need to score points, if they want to avoid total embarrassment. The last meeting had 41 points and the one before that had 45. The 45-point game (42-3 Michigan) was right here in the Big 10 Championship game. Last year's Big 10 title game had 65 points. This game goes over the low number!

Miami is here because of defense. The RedHawks permit only 16.3 points a game. Toledo is also stout on defense. The Rockets concede 20.4 points a game. The regular season game finished with 38 points. The RedHawks held the Rockets scoreless in the second half but couldn't erase a 21-3 halftime deficit. Toledo was in this game last year and beat Ohio 17-7. That game finished way below the total. Defense rules the day once again! ***MAC TOY**

Fields is back and the Bears offense is looking better. The defense continues to struggle. Chicago's last game saw 57 points scored. Vikings scored 27 last home game, a 46 point game against New Orleans. Minnesota home games average 44 but Bears' road games average 49.3. Bears last three visits here have had scores of 51, 48 and 60. This one goes over! **NFC North TOM**

Two non-conference teams. Neither is going to the playoffs. Why not throw caution to the wind? Neither defense is looking too good. The Titans gave up 34 points last week; the 6th straight time that they've allowed 20 or more. Carolina allowed 33 last game. That was the 4th time that the Panthers gave up 33 or more in their last 8 games. The Titans have scored 27 or more in 3 of their 4 home games. Their last game here finished with more than 50 points. It also came against an NFC South opponent. This one flies over the low total! ***NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

Neither defense is pitching many shutouts these days. Tennessee has allowed 20 or more points in 5 straight games. Jacksonville allowed 34 last game and has given up at least 20 in 4 of 5 games. The Titans only division game finished with 39 points but the Jaguars' three divisional games have finished with 52, 54 and 57 points. The Titans like to play conservatively at times but they will have to throw caution to the wind if they want to keep up with the Jaguars. Five of the last 7 meetings finished with more than 40 points and last year's 2 games averaged 47. This one goes OVER! ***AFC South TOY***

Lots of room to work with here. The Eagles have been involved in some recent high-scoring games, driving this week's total up. They will be up against a low-scoring team here. The Monarchs only scored 10 points last game. They average 24.4 points a game but that average comes down to 21.2 points per game on the road. Last year was the first meeting. The total was in the 60s but the score was 28-23. The Monarchs likely won't be as successful passing the ball in this game as they were in that one. The Eagles ran the ball 50 times. They will keep the clock moving again and the final score will stay below the big total! ***Sun Belt TOY***

Ravens offense can't be stopped. Baltimore has scored more than 30 points in 4 straight games. Bengals scored 27 last game and have gone over the 30 mark each of last 2 road games. The earlier meeting finished with 51 points. Bengals gave up 20 or more yards 17 different times last game. The Ravens had trouble stopping both the run and the pass. This will be another shootout! ***TNT TOM***

Lowest of today's 3 totals. Far too low! Akron games produce, on average, 43.4 points. Eastern Michigan games average 44! Last year's game had 62 points! The year before they had 56. Akron has only played 2 home games since October. They had scores of 69 and 58. Eastern Michigan's last 2 games had scores of 72 and 66. This one sails over! ***MAC TOW***

It may seem that stand-alone NFL games have been going under at a pretty good rate. Previous results from other games have nothing to do with this one though. In this case, the number is too low. The Jets defense is pretty good but they still allow 19.5 points per game. The Raider defense allows 21.4 points a game. Last time these teams met they scored 59 points. The total was 48.5. The Raiders scored 30 last game, their offense coming alive. They will build on that and the Jets will be better than they were last game. This game goes Over the low total! ***AFC TOW