Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a tough trip for East Carolina, heading West for a non-conference game. The last two weeks have seen the Pirates win a 4 OT game over Memphis and then clobber Central Florida. This will be the Pirates’ ninth straight game without a bye. How much are they going to have left in the tank? BYU, on the other hand, is desperate for a win. They have lost four of their six games and just got embarrassed 41-14 at Liberty. They have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive contests. By virtue of being an independent, BYU plays a tough schedule. So far they have faced Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas. ECU has played only one P5 team and that resulted in a one-point home loss to NC State. Because of Hurricane Ian rescheduling a game vs. USF, East Carolina has only had to play one true road game thus far. They lost it, 24-9 at Tulane. Don’t discount the high altitude at Provo as being a major factor tonight, in addition to this being a much further trip West than usual for the Pirates. Friday night would also seem to be an advantage for the home team. BYU is 5-0 ATS its last five Friday night contests while East Carolina is 1-9 ATS its previous 10. Lay the short number with the desperate home team. The Cougars need this one if they are to become bowl eligible. 10* |
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10-22-22 | Mississippi State +21.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
You’ve all heard how much trouble Mississippi State has had scoring on Alabama in the past. Over the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have been held to single digits (9 pts or less) eight different times by the Crimson Tide defense. The most points MSU scored in any of those games was 24.
But this isn’t the same Mississippi State offense nor is it the same Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide are wounded right now after losing 52-49 at Tennessee last week. MSU comes in averaging 35.4 points per game.
The Bulldogs also arrive in Tuscaloosa off a loss, 23-13 at Kentucky last week. But in each of the previous three games, they had scored 40 or more. In all five wins this season, they’ve scored at least 39. The two losses have been a different story, but with a generous spread this week, we’re not likely to need a 40-point effort to cover.
Alabama has already been in three games that came down to the final possession, all of them decided by four points or less. Then there’s this stat: Nine of Bama’s last 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits. That’s after the previous 53 saw just 9 such games. Saban is being overvalued off a loss here because of what he has done in the past. These teams are a closer than the spread would indicate. I’ve got the underdog comfortably staying within three touchdowns. 10* |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati v. SMU +3.5 | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 0 m | Show |
Cincinnati is 5-1 all-time vs. SMU and has won all three meetings here in Dallas. With those six games averaging just 53 points, the Under is a perfect 6-0. Because of injuries, this could be another low-scoring affair between these teams. But despite being off a bye, Cincinnati, who became the first ever “Group of Five” team to make the College Football Playoff last January, is far more banged up than SMU is entering Saturday. QB Bryant is dealing with a concussion and may not play. WR Scott is also injured. RB Corey Kiner missed the last game and on the defensive side, LB Pace was “dinged up” after facing USF. Now after a season-opening loss at Arkansas, the Bearcats have climbed back into the Top 25 with five consecutive victories. But while four of those have come by double-digits, they’ve been far from dominant. In each of the last two games, the Cincy defense has needed a fourth down stop, deep in their own territory, to hold on for the victory. Against USF, who isn’t a good team, the Bearcats were actually trailing in the 4th quarter as a 26.5-point favorite. They were also able to pull away late against Indiana and Miami OH, the latter playing with a backup QB, in games that were closer than the final scores indicated. Meanwhile, SMU suffered the ultimate “backdoor cover” last Friday against Navy, allowing a TD with just nine seconds left. The Mustangs still won mind you, 40-34, but as 12.5-point favorites it marked the fifth straight game where they failed to cover. The fact Cincinnati is off a bye means less with SMU having an extra day to prepare as well. The Bearcats have been very lucky so far in that their opponents are a FBS-worst 1 for 11 on fourth down attempts. SMU’s opponents are 11 of 18 on 4th down attempts. That “luck” is probably due to change. Remember that Cincinnati lost three defensive backs from last year’s CFP squad to the NFL. SMU QB Mordecai is 11th in the FBS in passing yards and should exploit this secondary with or without WR Rice (missed practice on Wednesday). Finally, Luke Fickell is just 7-12-1 on the road vs. fellow AAC teams. That includes 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Take the points. 10* |
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10-21-22 | Tulsa v. Temple +13.5 | Top | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Temple was flat out embarrassed last Thursday night, losing at UCF by a score of 70-13. To say that was a shockingly bad performance by the Owls defense might be the understatement of the century. Consider that in the first five games, they’d surrendered less than 15 points/game! Luckily for this week, Temple faces a far less potent offense. Tulsa also got its doors blown off in its last game, losing at Navy 53-21. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Hurricane, whose only FBS win this season has been by three points over Northern Illinois. The Tulsa defense lost a lot from a season ago, namely nine starters and the coordinator. So it’s not a surprise to see them struggling on that side of the ball. As for Temple, I’m expecting a big bounce back from their previously stout defensive unit, which had been Top 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. Now, led by QB EJ Warner (the son of Kurt), the Temple offense has been shaky to say the least. But Tulsa would have scored far fewer points themselves this season if not for tremendous red zone efficiency. Moving forward, the Golden Hurricane probably won’t be able to continue scoring TDs inside the 20 at the same rate they have been. I just don’t think that Tulsa is the kind of team that can cover a spread like this on the road. They are 0-3 ATS as favorites vs. FBS teams this season with two outright losses. Temple has the better ATS record on Friday nights through the years and is being undervalued in this spot because of the blowout loss it suffered last week. Take the points. 9* |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 42-43 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Going back to 2015, there have been 15 times where a team is 6-0 SU or better and getting points from a team with two or more losses. Those 15 teams have gone just 3-12 straight up. USC qualifies for the situation this week and, based on that history, I’m fading the Trojans in Salt Lake City. Utah has taken two tough losses, to Florida and UCLA. Both were games where the Utes were favored on the road. At home though, they’ve lost just once in the last 12 tries. This is still a very good football team and obviously one you should respect, based on them being favored here. USC has played a pretty light schedule so far with the only road games coming at Stanford and Oregon State. They were held to only 17 points and 359 total yards by Oregon State and were probably lucky to win that game. Even last week at the Coliseum, the 30-14 final over Washington State was a tad bit misleading. It was a three-point game deep into the third quarter but Wazzu’s special teams really betrayed them in that game. Tough to win at Rice-Eccles at night and I just don’t see Utah losing for a third time as a favorite. Turnovers were a real killer against UCLA, but I don’t see that being a problem here. The Utes also have a great secondary, something a team needs to beat USC. USC is just 3-12 ATS its last 15 games as a road underdog. That's the third worst in the FBS since 2015. Lay the points in this one. 9* |
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10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +3.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 40 m | Show |
Clemson is #5 in the country while FSU is unranked, but this smells like an outright upset to me. Florida State was 4-0 before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The Seminoles actually owned the edge in yards per play in both games they lost and should have beaten NC State last week. A terrible decision by QB Travis to throw the ball into the end zone, while down two and in field goal range, resulted in an interception and cost the team the game. Though Clemson is ranked #5 in the country and a perennial power, this doesn’t feel like the same Tigers’ team we saw during all those runs to the College Football Playoff. Remember they needed overtime to win at Wake Forest. It was a one-score game with NC State two weeks ago. This sets up as a real “fade the public” type game as the majority of bets are on Clemson, but the number has come down (as of Thursday). Regardless of any further line movement, I’m backing the underdog here. FSU definitely should have won on the road last week. The chance to end a six-game losing streak to Clemson should have the ‘Noles extra fired up for this Saturday night home game. The defense has been every bit as good as Clemson’s this year while the offense is averaging a full yard per play more than the Tigers. Take the points. 10* |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State +4 v. TCU | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 53 h 26 m | Show |
The Big 12’s two remaining unbeatens collide Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth as #15 TCU plays host to #7 Oklahoma State. My view is that the better team is getting points. Now TCU is playing at home and we have to respect that. But OSU has covered six straight conference road games and beat the Horned Frogs last season by a score of 63-17 (in Stillwater). Both teams were involved in close games last week. Oklahoma State ended up beating an aggressive Texas Tech team 41-31 while TCU outlasted Kansas on the road, 38-31. There’s probably going to be a lot of points scored in this one. But look for the Pokes to score more. The TCU defense has been pretty bad when it comes to allowing explosive plays and OSU QB Sanders is completing over 50% of his pass attempts of 20+ yards. This is a tougher spot for TCU, who goes from playing on the road (where ESPN College Gameday was present) to now playing its first ranked vs. ranked home game in five years. OSU is more accustomed to these games as they were on the cusp of the CFP last year and have averaged nine wins per season over the last decade for head coach Mike Gundy. I don’t think TCU should be the favorite here, even with homefield advantage. OK State is the better team and has gone 16-2 SU over its last 18 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Gotta take the points here. 10* |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -8.5 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show |
How the mighty have fallen! Oklahoma has lost three in a row for the first time since 1998 and they are 0-3 ATS in those three games, missing the spread by a combined 99 points! Rarely do we see a three-game stretch like that where the oddsmakers got it so wrong. So it may be surprising to some that OU is favored here over a Kansas team that was unbeaten going into last Saturday. But here me out, who would have ever thought the Sooners would be a single digit favorite in Norman against a team they’ve beaten 17 straight times? Oh, by the way, the Jayhawks just lost their starting QB. All of those 17 straight victories have been by double digits. The last seven times these teams have met, Oklahoma has been favored by at least 32 points. Now this is a better Kansas team than usual. But losing QB Daniels is a massive blow to their season. The Jayhawks’ defense also isn’t very good, having allowed a total of 148 points the last five games. Oklahoma expects to have its starting QB Dillon Gabriel back on the field Saturday. That’s a big plus as the offense clearly struggled without him. I think this is a “get right” game for the Sooners and will lay the points. 10* |
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10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Navy is on a 3-0 ATS win streak coming into Friday, all of the covers coming as underdogs. Twice during that stretch, the Midshipmen have won outright. As a 17.5-point dog, they won at East Carolina 23-20. The following week saw them lose 13-10 at Air Force, but they got the cash as 14-point dogs. Last week saw the Middies double their season point total with a 53-21 beatdown of Tulsa in Annapolis. That was Navy’s highest scoring game since 2018. Now they head to SMU to face a Mustangs team that has lost three in a row and failed to cover four in a row. SMU was outscored 31-6 in the second half by Central Florida last week. Before that, there were losses to TCU and Maryland. As if things weren’t already bad enough, two players have decided to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season with the intention of hitting the transfer portal. These offenses are very different. We know what Navy likes to do as they are #1 in the country in rushing attempts per game. SMU prefers to “air it out” and leads the country in passing yards. I believe the key to this game will be Navy’s ability to keep the ball away from the SMU offense. The Mustangs defense has been unable to stop the run during the losing streak, giving up close to 200 rush yards per game. So how do you think they’ll fare against Navy? Too many points to pass up tonight. 10* |
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10-13-22 | Baylor -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
There are five Big 12 teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Baylor isn’t one of them, but they should be and I like the Bears laying a short number Thursday night in Morgantown. Thus far, Baylor has taken a couple of tough losses at home, to BYU (overtime) and Oklahoma State. Those teams are a lot better than West Virginia, who may not even end up in a bowl this year as the Mountaineers are a solid candidate to finish last in the conference. The WVU defense has allowed 38 or more points to three of the four FBS teams that they’ve faced. They’ve allowed 43.7 points/game in the three losses. Virginia Tech, a horrible offensive team, was the only FBS offense that the Mountaineers have been able to keep in check. Baylor’s offense has been pretty good thus far, averaging 37.4 points/game. QB Shapen should have plenty of success through the air tonight against a bad WVU pass defense. Before running into OK State, the Bears’ defense had been getting the job done and I expect them to play well tonight. Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS off an ATS loss. 9* This is a big game for Baylor, who has yet to win in Morgantown (0-5 all-time). But there’s a first time for everything and considering the state of West Virginia football right now, this seems like an obvious time for the Bears to get their first ever win here. WVU will also be without its leading rusher due to a concussion. |
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10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
You probably don't know this, but Temple has been surprisingly strong on the defensive side of the ball. They rank Top 10 in the country in yards per play allowed! I believe the defense will keep the Owls in this game vs. UCF until the very end, so take the points. If you only looked at the final score of Temple’s last game, you’d just assume they were dominated by Memphis as it ended up being a 24-3 loss. However, that’s not the case. The Owls shut Memphis out for more than a half with the first points allowed being a TD late in the third quarter. Two of Memphis’ TD drives began in Temple territory. So as long as Temple’s offense takes better care of the football this week, count on them not giving up many points to UCF. For the season, they are allowing just 16.8 points/game and the most they’ve allowed to any one opponent is 30. With that kind of defense, it’s pretty crazy that we are getting more than three touchdowns here. Now Temple’s offense is obviously not very good. But UCF was certainly struggling for a while there against SMU last week. The Golden Knights had just 10 points going into halftime before they caught fire coming out of the break. Despite winning 41-19, total yards were basically even in that game and SMU finished with seven more first downs. UCF is not just 0-4 ATS following their previous four ATS wins, but they are also 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 20 or more points. This is a good spot to fade them against what has been a surprisingly excellent defense. 10* |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
It’s an interesting Sun Belt matchup that we’ve got midweek as underachieving Louisiana travels to face a Marshall team that’s 0-3 ATS since their upset of Notre Dame. I’m going to lay the points with the Thundering Herd.
Louisiana has lost three in a row, two of them as favorites. They were 11.5 point favorites in a 33-21 loss at Rice where the offense gained only 275 yards. The following week saw the Ragin Cajuns go to LA Monroe and lose as 9.5-point favorites, 21-17, this time getting outgained by 65 yards. Two Saturdays ago, the Cajuns did cover, as 8.5-point underdogs, but they still lost 20-17 at home to South Alabama.
Now it’s back on the road facing a Marshall team that has an 83-10 scoring edge at home. Now both previous visitors to Huntington were FCS teams. But the Thundering Herd did beat Notre Dame. Louisiana has topped 24 points in only one game this season. Marshall has allowed more than 21 just once.
This is a big revenge game for Marshall, who lost to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl last year, 36-21. This is a much worse Louisana team now though as Billy Napier left for Florida (the NO Bowl was the first game without him) and they had to replace half their starters, including QB, four OL and three LB. This is Marshall’s first year in the Sun Belt and they desperately want that first conference win after losing outright to Troy two games ago. The Herd have an excellent defense, one that shouldn’t give up many points to an anemic Louisiana offensive attack. The betting market seems to like the home team big and so do I. 10* Marshall |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +5 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
With Colorado State pulling an outright upset last night, there are only three teams left in College Football without an ATS win. Two reside out in the Pac 12. One of them is Stanford. I am taking the Cardinal plus the points at home in this late Saturday matchup.
Oregon State QB Chance Nolan is questionable to play here. The way he’s turned the ball over the last two games, perhaps the Beavers feel they’d be better off without him. In the losses to USC and Utah, OSU finished -8 in the turnover battle. Tough to win when that happens.
But when you’re Oregon State, it’s tough to win on the road, whether you are turning the ball over or not. The Beavers aren’t just 0-3 ATS as road chalk the last three seasons, they’ve lost all three games outright! And they are just 2-8 SU their L10 road games overall after getting beat 42-16 at Utah last week.
Stanford should not be confused with either USC or Utah, the two teams that beat OSU, but the Beavers aren’t USC, Washington and Oregon, who are the three teams that beat the Cardinal. That’s especially true if the road team has to turn to a backup QB. Eventually Stanford has to cover a spread, right? Going back to last year, it’s an inexplicable 0-10 ATS run. They are also due for some better turnover luck and sure enough here comes a team that’s given it away eight times in the last two games. Weird things happen in “Pac 12 After Dark” and I give the home team an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here. 9* |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Kentucky has a big question mark at quarterback as Will Levis (foot) is listed as a game-time decision. Regardless if Levis plays, I am taking South Carolina plus the points here.
The last time we saw Levis, he was coughing up two key fumbles in the red zone last week against Ole Miss. The Wildcats ended up suffering their first loss and the SEC schedule will only get tougher from here on out.
South Carolina seems revitalized after two straight 50+ point efforts. Granted, the competition was not tantamount to what they’ll face in the SEC. But the Gamecocks now have a lot of confidence heading into Lexington and are the healthier of these two teams.
Kentucky is not exactly the most impressive 4-1 team in the country to begin with and certainly not the 13th best team in the country. They had to come from behind to win at Florida, couldn’t shake Northern Illinois and even wins over Miami OH and Youngstown State weren’t as dominant as the final scores indicate. Now they may be without their starting QB. The way this line has been bet certainly tells me that Levis probably isn’t going to play. Either way, take the points with an improving South Carolina outfit. Don’t forget about their QB Spencer Rattler. When not facing Georgia, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 in every game this season. 10* |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Tennessee arrives in Baton Rouge ranked #8 in the country and fresh off a bye. But the 4-0 Volunteers are about to face their toughest test to date in the form of a LSU team that is a missed extra point away from being 5-0. Since losing the opener to Florida State, Brian Kelly has really turned the Tigers around. Now should they have won last week at Auburn? Probably not! But picking up a big road win like that can do wonders for a team. QB Daniels is ready to go this week for LSU as is a defense that should offer plenty of resistance to Tennessee’s high-powered offense. Remember that the last time we saw the Vols, they barely escaped Florida, at home. It was a 38-33 final and UT gave up almost 600 yards. That wasn’t Tennessee’s first close call either. They only won at Pitt by seven and needed OT to do so. This is by no means an impervious outfit coming out of Knoxville, despite the presence of QB Hendon Hooker. Here in Baton Rouge, LSU has already beaten a very good Mississippi State team. That’s a better win than anything on Tennessee’s resume. The Vols don’t come here to Baton Rouge often (last visit was 2010) and haven’t beaten LSU in more than 15 years. LSU is 4-0 SU/ATS L4 hosting the SEC East. 8* |
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10-01-22 | Troy +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
Western Kentucky is 3-1 but it has not been a challenging schedule for the Hilltoppers. They’ve beaten FIU and Hawaii, who are probably the two worst FBS teams in the country, plus a FCS team in Austin Peay. Austin Peay may be the “best” win of the three, even though it was 73-0 last week against FIU.
Yes, WKU probably should have beaten Indiana too, but instead lost that game in overtime. Because of that close call and the 73-0 win last week, I think we’ve got some nice value to go against the Hilltoppers this week.
Troy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog thus far, going against Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Marshall. After losing the way they did against App State (hail mary), it would have been easy for the Trojans to fold the following week against Marshall. But instead they took the game outright, 16-7, as a three-point dog.
The Trojans were by no means dominated by Ole Miss, only getting outgained by 87 yards. There may be a unique advantage for them in this matchup. Backup QB Jarret Doege transferred from WKU right before the start of the season. Doege should certainly be able to share some intel with his new teammates. Defensively, Troy has a clear edge here. They just held Marshall (who upset Notre Dame, remember) to not just 7 points, but 174 total yards. Indiana put up 484 yards on the WKU defense, which also benefited from 10 turnovers in the first two games. Troy’s offense has averaged 437 yards/game the L3 weeks. 10* |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
So there are several reasons to like Mississippi State in this game. Let’s go through them! One is that the situation is really against Texas A&M, who just played a down to the wire game against Arkansas and has #2 Alabama on deck. Mississippi State played Bowling Green last week and won easily, 45-14.
The Alabama game is huge for A&M as they beat the Crimson Tide last season and there has been a lot of chatter coming from both coaches, recruiting-related and otherwise, all offseason.
Last year, Mississippi State also faced A&M in an “Arkansas-Alabama sandwich.” They upset the Aggies 26-22 in College Station as seven-point underdogs with QB Will Rogers (no, not me) completing 46 of 59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers also did not throw an interception in that game. A&M has been outgained in three straight games with the offense never scoring more than 17 points. Remember last week they needed a defensive score (and a missed field goal) for the win. Even worse for the Aggies offense is that they have lost WR Smith to an injury. I just don’t see how they keep pace with a Mississippi State offense that has scored 39 or more points three times. The Bulldogs also led LSU on the road 13-0 before collapsing in the second half. They desperately will want to avoid an 0-2 start to SEC play. Lay the points at home. 9* |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 47 m | Show |
This is a Top 25 matchup but oddsmakers clearly believe #23 Florida State is better than #22 Wake Forest. So do I.
From 2012-18, FSU defeated Wake seven straight times. But they’ve lost the last two head to head meetings, both in Winston-Salem, including 35-14 last year. There have been some “lean” years in Tallahassee - by Seminoles’ standards - but early returns in 2022 have been promising for coach Mike Norvell.
The ‘Noles are 4-0, which is their best start since 2015 . This is also the first game that they’ll play as a ranked team in four years. Both the offense and defense are in the top 35 nationally in scoring. QB Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 321 yards (with just 16 completions!) in last week’s 44-14 win over Boston College.
While FSU remains unbeaten, Wake Forest is off its first loss of the season. It was a wild one for the Demon Deacons, a 51-45 double overtime loss at home to #5 Clemson. Their defense obviously got torched. Coming off a loss like that, WF is “ripe for the picking.” Wake Forest has not won here in Tallahassee since 2008. Their defense is a major concern, not just because of the Clemson game last week. The week before, the Deacons allowed Liberty to 36 points and that honestly could have been a loss as they were outgained and needed Liberty to miss a 2-point try in the final 70 seconds. FSU should roll here. 10* |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +14 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
This is a massive letdown spot for #18 Washington, who beat Michigan State 39-28 last week to move into the polls. The Huskies were an unranked favorite over a Top 25 team in that game. They are one of just five schools to be 3-0 ATS and favored in every game.
Now they’re laying double digits to a conference rival.
Following a loss to USC, Stanford had last week off. Going back to last year, the Cardinal haven’t covered a spread in nine consecutive games, tying them with Colorado State for the longest streak in the nation. But a bye week coupled with the fact they played USC tougher than you might think, have me believing they will stay inside the number this week.
Stanford is 5-1 straight up vs. Washington when the Huskies are ranked in the Top 25. I know that QB Michael Penix Jr (transfer from Indiana) has been a difference-maker for UW, but this spread seems too high after a marquee win like the one the team had last week. I’m not THAT sold on the Huskies just yet. As for Stanford, after a bye, they figure to go “all out” in this game as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Pac 12 play. The spread is up to two touchdowns and I just do not see the favorite winning by that kind of margin. Washington is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 conference games and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been off a straight up win. 10* |
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09-24-22 | Maryland +17.5 v. Michigan | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 4 m | Show |
Few are going to give Maryland any shot of pulling the upset Saturday in Ann Arbor, even though the Terrapins come in at 3-0. It has not been a good run against Michigan the last several years with the Terps both losing and failing to cover each of the last six meetings.
Maryland did have a nice win last week (at home) against SMU. So it’s not like they haven’t played anyone. The same cannot be said for Michigan who has faced three of the worst teams in the country, Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut. Give the Wolverines credit for winning those three games by a combined score of 166-17. But they were also favored to win the three games by 132 points. All three lines were -31 or higher with the last two averaging -50.5!
I know that Maryland was a bit lucky to get the win last week over SMU. But I think they’ve got the goods to stay within 17 this week. QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accounted for seven touchdowns. This will quite obviously be the best offense Michigan has faced thus far. So let’s see how Michigan does once they actually “get punched in the mouth.” My view is that the weak non-conference slate did wonders for “stat-padding.” However, the team is likely now overconfident as they hit the Big 10 slate. The Wolverines are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. 10* |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16.5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
UTEP isn’t going to get a lot of love from bettors here, especially with the Miners coming in at 0-4 ATS. But the Boise State team that comes to El Paso Friday night just isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing. In their only “real” test thus far, the Broncos got run off the field in an embarrassing first half showing at Oregon State, a game they’d go on to lose 34-17.
Now Boise has bounced back with a couple of wins, over New Mexico and Tenn Martin, but that doesn’t convince me they are worthy of laying double digits on the road. The Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS in 2022 and pushed two weeks ago with a similar spread at New Mexico. I realize that UTEP just lost to New Mexico - by 17 - last week. But they turned it over SEVEN times in that game, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD.
The UTEP defense has not been bad the last two games, giving up 313 total yards to New Mexico State and just 299 to New Mexico. Yes, those are two bad teams, but Boise State’s offense just isn’t what it used to be. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has been inconsistent and was shaken up in last week’s game. On other side of the ball, two starters in the Boise secondary also got hurt last week. So there may be hope for a couple of big plays in the passing game from this UTEP offense after all.
Boise State’s offense seems content to play “slower” compared to years’ past, so I do not see them running away with this game. For the record, the Broncos are 2-10 ATS following a straight up win, 0-5 if that win was by more than 20 points. Also, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Diego State For UTEP, this game will be treated as “their Super Bowl.” It’s a rare national TV game (CBS Sports) on a Friday night against a fairly marquee opponent. I had success with an "ugly dog" last Friday (Wyoming), so grab those points again. 9* |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State +21.5 v. Utah | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
Utah is out for revenge Saturday night in Salt Lake City, facing a San Diego State team that defeated them, 33-31 as eight-point underdogs, last season. The Utes are much bigger favorites this time, but I think the Aztecs keep it close.
The bloom is off the rose a bit for SDSU as they lost 38-20 at home to Arizona in the opener. But they came back to beat Idaho State 38-7 last week. A well-coached team like this, that can run the football effectively, should be able to control the clock and stay within the generous number.
Let’s not forget Utah lost to Florida. Florida is obviously much better than SDSU, but the Utes defense did allow 451 yards in that game.
I think that the revenge angle has inflated this line. Utah is also just 2-11 ATS in the month of September, not to mention 1-4 ATS following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 2-7 ATS its last nine non-conference games. And this is a spot where San Diego State typically steps it up. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games vs. Top 25 teams. Going back to 2016, they sport a 13-5 record vs. the number when catching points. 10* |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The second Scott Frost was fired, bettors started piling on Nebraska, who is a home dog for this Noon ET matchup against #6 Oklahoma. I agree with the line move and will be taking the points.
Nebraska may be 0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU, but Frost is gone and the Cornhuskers have actually been pretty good as an underdog in recent years (12-8-1 ATS). Last year, they easily covered as 22-point dogs in Norman, losing by just seven points to OU.
The Sooners did win 33-3 last week, but that’s a little misleading when you consider they were down 3-0 to Kent State with under a minute to go in the first half. Just because they were able to pile it on in the second half there doesn’t mean they can do the same here.
Interim coach Mickey Joseph should have the Blackshirts fired up and ready to go Saturday morning. I just can’t see the home team being blown out here and remember no team has lost more close games the last few seasons than Nebraska has. All we are asking for here is for them to keep it close. The offense seems just fine in Lincoln, averaging 36 points/game. Oklahoma has yet to face a good offense this year. I also wouldn’t be so certain that the Sooners can make it three straight games without a turnover. Grab the points. 9* |
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09-16-22 | Air Force v. Wyoming +16.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Air Force is probably the best team in the Mountain West right now. Going back to last season, the Falcons own the nation’s third longest active win streak at six in a row. They have also covered the spread in all six of those games. But Wyoming has always been a tough opponent and I’m liking the points in this Friday night matchup.
First off, Air Force hasn’t won here in Laramie since 2012. They’ve lost three times here since that last win and conference openers also seem to be a problem for the Falcons. They’re just 2-9 SU in MWC openers the last 11 seasons. They’ve also lost their first road game of the season each of the last three years.
Nobody runs the ball better than Air Force, but the past shows that the Wyoming defense has been fairly adept at slowing down the triple option. The last two years, Air Force has averaged just 186.5 rush yards vs. Wyoming. That still sounds like a lot, however, not when compared to what the Falcons usually rush for.
Wyoming is also 2-0, by the way. I know that an OT win over Tulsa and beating FCS Northern Colorado isn’t going to really impress anybody. But the fact they put up an average of 36.5 points in those two wins is encouraging. The Cowboys should have scored more than 33 last week, but settled for four field goals. The last 14 encounters between these Mt West rivals have seen an average of just over 42 points/game scored. That’s not very many. So, in what historically has been a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the better option, especially with AF’s past struggles here in Laramie. 10* |
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09-10-22 | Virginia +4.5 v. Illinois | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
Even though Illinois is at home, coming off a loss to Indiana, they probably should not be favored here.
Now the Fighting Illini’s season did get off to a great start as they blew out Wyoming 38-6 here in Champaign. But the last second loss to Indiana last week took the wind out of their sales pretty quick. It’s a game the Illini probably should have won, but four turnovers cost them dearly.
Virginia has the best offense that Brett Bielema’s team has seen yet. The Cavaliers are led by Brennan Armstrong, a dual threat QB that can beat you with his arm or his legs. Illinois’ defense will have all sorts of problems trying to contain Armstrong, who has his top three receivers back from last year.
It wasn’t the most impressive final score as Virginia beat Richmond last week 34-17. But the offense had over 500 yards and scored 28 points by halftime. They simply took their foot off the gas in the second half, probably not wanting to show Illinois much. These teams met last year and Virginia won 42-14 with Armstrong throwing for 400 yards. The line was -10.5 (in favor of Virginia) for that game. I just don’t see how it could be so different here. 10* |
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09-09-22 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Boise State turned in a truly horrible first half performance last week in Corvallis and as a result, found themselves down 24-0 going into the break. Winning the second half 17-10 was of little consequence as the Broncos ended up going down 34-17 at the hands of Oregon State. Based on that performance, I think the number is too high this week in New Mexico.
Not much is expected in Albuquerque this year. But the Lobos did start 2022 with a big 41-0 win over Maine. Now while everyone realizes that’s a FCS opponent, New Mexico did hold the Bears to 118 total yards and just 2.5 per play. UNM gained 437 yards in the game and six per play.
After just one game, there’s already some question as to who will be under center for Boise. Hank Bachmeier threw two first half interceptions last week and thus got benched for Taylen Green, who came in and threw for 155 yards. As of press time, Bachmeier is still listed as QB1. But this uncertainty about the position can’t be good for the offense.
New Mexico’s offense is all about running the ball. Look for them to control the clock, making it difficult for Boise State to pull away. Honestly, based on what we saw last week, there’s no reason to believe the Broncos will run away with this game. A Friday night home game is a big deal for New Mexico and I’m expecting an inspired effort where they keep the game close. The Lobos seem like they’re a better football team compared to last year. The Broncos are now just 7-7 straight up their last 14 games. 9* |
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09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
What a letdown Louisville was last week. The Cardinals lost 31-7 at Syracuse in a completely misleading final. I say that not just as “sour grapes” after a bad bet, but knowing full well Louisville came away with seven points on five drives inside the Orange 40-yard line.
Even though QB Malik Cunningham did not play great against Syracuse, the offense still averaged 6.2 yards per play. What happened is they were undone by three costly turnovers.
Central Florida faced a FCS school in its opening game, so we really can’t make “heads or tails” of the Golden Knights just yet. But we do know they lost three of last year’s starters along the defensive line. Louisville should be able to run the ball more effectively and hold up in the face of pressure better than they did in Week 1. Louisville won this matchup last year, 41-34 as a seven-point dog. It came down to the wire with a pick-six on the final play deciding things. I’m not saying they’ll be able to beat the Cardinals again, but all the Golden Knights need is to stay within a score. I think they do that here. Cunningham should have a bounce back game (he had 384 yards in this game last year) and we’re getting a ton of value with Louisville being off a loss. The Cardinals are 10-4-1 ATS off a loss. 9* |
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09-03-22 | Kent State v. Washington -22.5 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Washington should run away with a victory in their opening game in what promises to be a bounce back season under new coach Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer did a great job leading Fresno State to a 10-3 record last season. He’s got more talent to work with in Seattle and brought in Michael Penix (transfer from Indiana) to play quarterback. The Huskies’ defense has experience and there shouldn’t be much of a learning curve under the new co-coordinators DeBoer brought with him from Frenso. DeBoer will certainly want to make a “statement” in his first game. With a FCS opponent on deck, there’s really no reason to hold back or “hide” anything. Kent State is going to be in a lot of trouble in this late Saturday matchup. The Golden Flashes have made it to a bowl two of the last three seasons, but there are heavy losses on offense with the QB, both WRs and four offensive linemen having to be replaced. This is a giant mismatch on the Week 1 card. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
Louisville and Syracuse each have a head coach on the proverbial hot seat. Scott Satterfield went 8-5 his first year at Louisville, but is just 10-14 since. Dino Babers is still hanging on at Syracuse despite a 29-43 record over six years. A win here is desperately needed for both Satterfield and Babers. Only one can get it though. Satterfield’s overall results may not be up to snuff. But Syracuse is a team he’s handled all three seasons. The Cardinals have beaten the Orange three straight years, outscoring them 127-37 along the way. The last two years it’s been 71-3. The Louisville offense should be excellent this year with QB Malik Cunningham back. I think they have the potential to put up 40 points per game. What about the defense? Seven starters are back and eight transfers were brought in. So the Cardinals will be stronger on that side of the ball. Cunningham has killed the Orange defense in the past with nine touchdown passes in two games. He’s a threat to run (1031 yards last year) and with Syracuse breaking in an entirely new starting D-line, I don’t like their chances against the senior L’ville QB this time either. The third time will not be the charm. Given the series history, which includes eight straight covers by the team that is favored, you’ve got to like Louisville here. Cunningham is the difference maker with Cuse QB Shrader remains a question mark. 10* |
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09-03-22 | Bowling Green v. UCLA -23.5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Chip Kelly is only 18-25 in his four years at UCLA. But it was finally a winning season last year at 8-4. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson back for another year, the Bruins’ offense should be explosive and I see them routing Bowling Green in the opener. Scott Loeffler is just 7-22 in his three years at Bowling Green with four of the wins coming last year. The Falcons do bring back one of the more experienced offenses in the country, however this group was only able to put up 21 points per game in ‘21. They still don’t have enough to keep up with DTR and the Bruins. The defensive side of the ball was BG’s strength last season. But it still struggled to stop the run and will have to deal with Zach Charbonnet, who had 1153 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. UCLA averaged 37 points per game last year. Against FBS teams, BG scored more than 26 once. It’s a big number to lay in the opener. But Kelly is all-too-aware of what’s going on at USC and doesn’t want to lose the headlines in Los Angeles. UCLA has a very easy non-conference schedule and will want to start like they did last year when they blew out Hawaii 44-10 in the first game. Won’t be close at the Rose Bowl. 9* |
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09-02-22 | Western Michigan v. Michigan State -22 | Top | 13-35 | Push | 0 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
Michigan State probably won’t match 2021’s 11-2 SU record, but they’ll have an excellent defense and should easily overwhelm an inexperienced Western Michigan team in the opener. Sparty won all six of its home games last year, one of them over a Michigan team that made the CFP Playoff. The six wins were by an average of 13 points and while I need a bigger margin of victory Friday, this Western Michigan team is one of the weaker opponents to visit in East Lansing in quite some time. The Broncos lose QB Kaleb Eleby and his production will be almost impossible to replace even though the team went a disappointing 8-5 with him at the helm last year. WMU was actually favored in all eight MAC games in 2021. This year, they figure to take some lumps early on. The offensive line is young and will struggle to protect new QB Salopek, a freshman, against what is likely to be a ferocious Spartans’ pass rush. MSU covered 10 of 13 games last season and will win here by at least four scores. Last time these teams played it was 51-17 Sparty. Lay the number. 8* |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh -7.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 49 m | Show |
It’s nice to see this rivalry being revived. This is the first “Backyard Brawl” since 2011 when WVU prevailed 21-20 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have actually won seven of the last ten meetings, as well as four of the last five, but obviously little of that matters now as more than a decade has passed since the programs last met on the football field. Pitt’s players, coaching staff and fans should care though. It’s an important game to start the season, not just because of the rivalry, but also because the Panthers have high hopes for ‘22. While they do lose QB Pickett, OC Whipple and top WR Addison, the three top running backs all return and Slovis has transferred from USC to replace Pickett. This Pitt team will again be a force in the ACC, a conference they won last season. West Virginia hasn’t won more than six games in any of the previous three seasons and figures to be near the bottom of the Big 12 again this year. The defensive side of the ball lost a lot, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. There’s just 11 returning starters total and the Mountaineers lost their QB, top RB and top WR from a season ago. With this being a rivalry game, it’s only natural to “think upset,” but I just can’t see WVU hanging with this Pitt team. The Panthers have a decisive edge on defense. Transfer JT Daniels may be in for a long night in his first game in a Mountaineer uniform. The home team is very strong along the defensive line and in the back end. Pitt is not only 16-4 SU its last 20 games as a favorite, but they’ve covered 13 times. They are 6-2 ATS last eight tries as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. WVU is 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS L10 road games. Lay the number. 9* Pitt |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State +8.5 | Top | 23-12 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
No matter where you look, you will not find a College Football team with less experience than Nevada. I believe this will be a major detriment for the Wolf Pack, who are laying points in the season opener.
The Wolf Pack went 8-4 last year in the regular season with three of the losses coming by two points. But then they were rolled in the bowl game, 52-24 by Western Michigan, and their coach Mike Norvell left for rival Colorado State. First year coach Ken Wilson is stepping into a tough situation in Reno as QB Strong is gone as are the top SEVEN receivers from last year. Only six starters are back.
New Mexico State is again pegged to be one of the worst teams in College Football. They also have a new coach, Jerry Kill, who had previous success at Northern Illinois and Minnesota. While the Aggies are underdogs here, I think the players and coaching staff view this as a very winnable game and will want to get the Kill-era off to a strong start. At home, getting points against such an experienced team, they are the play.
Last year’s NMSU team was a little bit better than you might realize as they led both San Diego State and Utah State at the half. Kill did a nice job in the transfer portal, adding a number of talented players. Nevada lost its starting right tackle to a season-ending injury and he was the lone returnee along the offensive line. Wilson has never been a head coach at this level and I just can’t see this Wolf Pack team winning by double digits tonight. 8* |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama +3 | Top | 33-18 | Loss | -110 | 177 h 19 m | Show |
Neither SEC team had much difficulty winning on New Year’s Eve. Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in one semifinal. Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 in the second semifinal. Now it’s a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, only this time a much bigger prize is on the line - the National Championship. Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, 41-24 as a six-point underdog. The Crimson Tide are again underdogs here, although the line is obviously shorter. But it’s hard for me to shake what happened back on December 4th. I expect the Tide to win again here and give Nick Saban his seventh National Championship since coming to Tuscaloosa (and third in the past five years). Bama’s offense is simply way better than any other that Georgia has faced this year. The Tide account for nearly one-third of the points allowed by the Bulldogs’ defense this season. The SEC Championship is the only time Alabama has been an underdog in many, many years. It’s a little surprising that the oddsmakers don’t have them favored for this rematch. They have dominated Georgia, winning the previous seven matchups. The last time Bama lost to Georgia was Saban’s first season here, which was 2007, the last season where the Tide weren’t ranked #1 at some point. Georgia has not covered the spread in back-to-back games since starting the year out at 5-1 ATS. Alabama is clearly a “psychological hurdle” for them and one they are unlikely to clear on the 10th. Take the points with ALABAMA. |
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01-04-22 | LSU +5 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
We’ve seen a pretty substantial line move here due to the fact LSU lost its QB (transfer portal) and two of its top defensive players (opt outs). The Tigers will also have an interim coach after Ed Oregeron was dismissed in favor of Brian Kelly. But even so, LSU has more talent than Kansas State and I’ll gladly grab the points in the Texas Bowl. Kansas State is 7-5 but lost its last two games in pretty feeble fashion. They went down 20-10 to Baylor and 22-17 to Texas. The Wildcats are also dealing with turnover on the coaching staff as they’ll have a new offensive coordinator for Tuesday’s game. Also, QB Skyler Thompson suffered a lower leg injury late in the year. Can’t count on him being the same, even if he does decide to play here. Kansas State’s best win this year was probably … West Virginia? They won just two games away from home and one of them was by a single point. The other was at Kansas. The offense has averaged less than 300 yards in its last three games. It will be interesting to see if LSU elects to start Garrett Nussmeier, a decision that would cost the QB his redshirt season. Regardless, I expect the Tigers that do suit up to really play hard as they look to impress the incoming coaching staff. If LSU had its full complement of players, they would win this game in blowout fashion. Even down a few, they should still keep it close at the very worst. Take LSU plus the points |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
Utah/Ohio State Utah won't be rolling over here. The Utes have won six straight and all signs point to a possible big upset here as well. Most recently Utah beat Oregon 38-10 in the PAC 12 Championship, while Ohio State enters off a 42-27 loss to Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. Utah has lost its last two bowl games, putting an added motivation incentive here. Overall the Utes averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 20.9. QB Cameron Rising had 2,279 yards, 18 TD's and only five INT's. With their nine-game win streak in the rear-view mirror, I believe the Buckeyes are ripe for the picking tonight. Ohio State and CJ Stroud average 45.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. The Utes have won of the best running games in the country, averaging more than 200 yards per game. The Buckeyes have been great defensively (again) all season, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it conceded 40 or more points in. This one comes down to the wire, so let's grab the points! Utah 10* GAME OF MONTH. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Michigan State | 21-31 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Michigan State I absolutely believe that this one favors the 11-2 Pittsburgh Panthers. Michigan State is only the "home" team on paper. The Panthers were 5-0 on the road this year, while MSU was just 4-2. The Panthers won the the ACC title, while the Spartans finished in third in the Big Ten East. Pittsburgh is led by QB Kenny Pickett, who had 4,319 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Panthers average 40.2 PPG, while allowing 24.4. Pickett is gone for the draft, but I don't expect much of a drop off here with Nick Patti, who completed 85.7 percent of his passes for 140 yards. The Spartans are led by Payton Thorne, who had 2,886 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. MSU averages 31 PPG, while allowing 26.6. MSU will be without star RB Kenneth Walker III though. Both teams were great in stopping the run, but the Panthers finished with 51 sacks this season, which was second in the nation. Look for Pittsburgh to grind out a win here. 8* BOWL PLAY on Pittsburgh. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
You won’t know the players (and coaches) without a program in this one. Both teams are off disappointing ends to their years, losing head coaches to other institutions, and key players to the NFL draft, not to mention demoralizing losses. Oregon may also be affected by covid. The Ducks looked very poor against Utah (twice), and will have a long way to come back to make this game competitive. The Ducks run game and QB. Brown’s effectiveness took a real hit in their last games. Losing their best defensive player is troubling. The Ducks’ offense is very young. It will be tough to adjust to the changes. The Sooners have lost key defensive pieces as well. Young QB Caleb Williams had a tough time of late but spent a lot of time on his back; he was pressured mercilessly in his last two games. The Ducks do not pressure the QB particularly well, and will be without their best pass rusher. Look for Williams to bounce back and step it out on the National stage. The Sooners have the benefit of a very experienced “guest” head coach, which may be of some motivation. I am on the Sooners to win and cover. Don’t delay on this one! |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia +5 v. Minnesota | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 55 m | Show | |
WVU/Minnesota This one is going to be close. I mean, I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. THAT close! WVU is gunning for its third straight win. It most recently beat Kansas by a score of 34-28 as 15.5-point favorites. The Gophers finished 8-4, while WVU was 6-6. Minnesota beat Wisconsin 23-13 as 7-point dogs in their finale. Minnesota averages 26.5 PPG, while WVU averages 23.3. The Gophers have the upper-hand defensively, conceding 18.3, while the Mountaineers allow 26.5. I like Jarret Doege to test this Minnesota secondary and to at the very least, have his team competitive until the final moments. 8* BOWL play ON WVU. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
WMU/Nevada These team's end of season numbers are similar, but WMU faced the more difficult overall schedule. The Western Michigan Broncos average 30 PPG, while allowing 28.6. Nevada averages 36.7 PPG, while allowing 24.4. Each is led by a dynamic, playmaking QB. WMU has Kaleb Eleby, who finished with 3,115 yards passing, 21 TD's and five interceptions. Nevada is led by Carson Strong, who finished with 4,186 yards passing, 36 TD's and eight INT's. Nevada will also have an interim coach here in Vau Taua, who will fill in for Jay Norvell, who has already taken off for the Colorado State head coaching job. WMU's entire roster will essentially be on the field of play today as well. Look for that to be a big difference-maker and lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on WMU. |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State +3.5 | 52-38 | Loss | -117 | 31 h 31 m | Show | |
Kent/Wyoming It's the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Golden Flashes finished 7-6 and first in the MAC East Division. The Cowboys were 6-6 and finished fourth in the Mountain Division of the MWC. Kent averages 30.3 PPG, while the Cowboys average only 23.5. The Golden Flashes have struggled defensively, but they catch a big break here facing this stagnant Cowboys' offense. Wyoming dropped six of its last final eight games. Sean Chambers is going to have to shoulder the load here with the Golden Flashes stacking the box. Chambers threw more INT's than TD's this year. The Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the country, which plays right into Kent's strength on the offensive side. I think the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. 8* SPECIAL on Kent. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall +4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 0 m | Show |
UL Lafayette/Marshall This is the New Orleans Bowl. While the outright is possible, let's grab the points. This is a neutral site game, but Lafayette should have more fans in the stands because of the proximity, but regardless I like the underdog in this one. The Herd finished 7-5. Marshall averages 34 points per game, while allowing 22.8. The No. 17 Ragin Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in the Sun Belt Conferece Championship game. UL Lafayette averages 30.7 PPG, while allowing 18.3. The Herd have the offense to keep pace and their defense will be one of hte best that the Cajuns have faced all season. I expect a war until the final horn. 10* PLAYBOOK on Marshall. |
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12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Houston/Cincinnati. The Cougars went 11-1 on the season, while the Bearcats enter at 12-0. With a win today, Cincinnati can become the first group of five conference program to reach the Playoff since it was started back in 2014. Houston averages 38.8 PPG. QB Clayton Tune was great with 3,013 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Alton McCaskill has 844 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. The Cougars have been stout defensively as well, allowing 19.8 PPG. That defense will be tested like it hasn't seen all season though with the Bearcats offense that averages 39.6 PPG. Desmond Ritter has 3,000 passing yards and 27 TD's, along with 342 rushing yards and six rushing TD's. The Bearcats defense has also been remarkable, allowing just 15.8 PPG. Finally note that Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win of more than 20 points. Lay the points, expect a blowout. Cincinnati 10* Game of the Week. |
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11-27-21 | Georgia Southern +24.5 v. Appalachian State | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern/App State No outright, but closer than expected. This is the "Deeper Than Hate Rivalry" matchup at the Kidd Brewer Stadium. Georgia Southern is off a 34-17 home loss to BYU as a 20-point underdog. App State though has already locked up top spot and a place in the conferene title game, so I expect it to take the proverbial "foot off the gas" in the second half. And that'll leave the door WIDE open for the Eagles to run through here. Connor Cigelske was a bright spot in his team's loss last weekend going 11 of 14 for 122 yards, while also rushing for 20 more. Overall the Eagles average 21.8, while allowing 31.8. The Mountaineers have nothing to play for here. They average 36.5 PPG, while allowing 20.4. Chase Brice is amazing, but I expect the team to play conservative in the second half. This spread is too large. Georgia Southern. 8* play. |
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11-27-21 | Houston v. Connecticut +32.5 | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
Houston/UConn Outright win? I'm not saying that of course. But I think that Houston will go up big, then cost to victory here in the second half as it prepares for the Conference Championship game and its Bowl berth. Houston is 10-1 and off the 31-13 home win over Memphis (note that the Cougars are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS home win in which they held their opponent to 13 or fewer points in.) UConn has only played three games this year that were decided by ten points or fewer. The Huskies are averaging 15.5 PPG, while conceding 37.9. Houston averages 38.2 PPG, while allowing 20.1. The only knock against the Cougars this season is their level of competition. But it's senior night for UConn as well. I say that the Huskies comfortably sneak in through the back door. 10* COACHES CORNER on UCONN. |
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11-26-21 | South Florida +18.5 v. Central Florida | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
USF/UCF USF is 2-9. UCF is 7-4. This is senior night for the Knights, but I think they'll get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. While the Bulls are only 2-9 SU, they've been profitable for bettors this season at 6-5 ATS. And while UCF is 7-4 SU (including 6-0 at home), it's only 4-7 ATS (incl. just 3-3 ATS at home.) With the majority of the public money on the favorite here, I say this line is absolutely inflated. USF lost this game by a score of 58-46 last season, and I expect a similar effort from the Bulls here as well. The numbers/trends and overall situation points to the points as the savvy move. 8* Playbook on USF. |
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11-26-21 | Missouri +15 v. Arkansas | 17-34 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
Missouri/Arkansas. Both teams are bowl eligible, but an upset victory today for the Tigers will ensure that they have nothing to worry about. Arkansas is 7-4 overall, and 5-1 at home. It's off a "near miss" in its last game, falling 42-35 at Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog. After that emotional setback, I say that the Razorbacks have a predictable mental letdown here. I'm not calling for a straight up upset or anything like that, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much tighter game than most are expecting. The setback to Alabama actually broke a slide of five straight ATS losses for Arkansas. The Tigers? They're off a thrilling 24-23 OT win at home over Florida to move to 6-5 and I say they have the offense and the overall motivation to keep this one interesting. 8* COACHES CORNER on Missouri. |
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11-20-21 | Wyoming +6 v. Utah State | Top | 44-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Wyoming/Utah State This is a big game for 5-5 Wyoming, which needs one more win to become eligible. It does have another chance next weekend, but with nothing to lose here as it tries to score the upset, I do indeed expect the visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch. The Cowboys are led by a rushing offense that is ranked 47th in the nation. Xazavian Valladay has 797 passing yards and five TD's. Titus Swen has 549 rushing yards and four major scores. I say Utah State, which smashed SJSU 48-17 in its last game, gets caught complacent here. Logan Bonner has 25 TD's and ten INT's this year, but the Cowboys are adept at defending the pass. I expect the visiting to hang around late, so grab as many points as you can! 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF YEAR on Wyoming. |
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11-20-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Boston College | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
FSU/BC Florida State has two more opportunities to become bowl eligible, while BC has already earned that at 6-4. That latest sixth win came last weekend in a 41-30 victory at Georgia Tech. FSU salvaged its season with a last second win over Miami at Tallahassee as well, as QB Jordan Travis has 274 yards passing, along with 62 yards rushing and two TD's. Eagles' QB Phil Jurkovec accounted for five TD's in his team's win last weekend, but I say an inevitable letdown is imminent here for the Eagles, who are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in their last outing. 8* HIGH-NOON BLOWOUT on FSU. |
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11-19-21 | Arizona v. Washington State -14.5 | 18-44 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
Arizona/Washington State. Arizona is 1-9. It has nothing to play for here. Washington State is 5-5. It has everything to play for here, especially with a tough matchup in the Apple Cup at Washington next weekend. It's now or never for the Cougars to gain eligibility. They most recently fell 38-24 at Oregon. QB Jayden de Laura finished with 280 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's. I just can't see playing the role of spoiler being enough motivation for the Wildcats today. As Kramer once said to Jerry: "Stick a fork in them, they're done!" Arizona is off a 38-29 home loss to Utah. QB Will Plummer was decent with 223 yards passing and a TD. The Wildcats concede 29.5 PPG this year, while the Cougars allow 26. Washington State though is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records. Arizon hasn't fared nearly as well for bettors in this spot though, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +13.5 to +15.5 points range. Good news for WSU's defense today is that Arizona is averaging just 17.8 PPG over its last five. Lay the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on Washington State. |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
NIU/Buffalo. Buffalo has two chances to try and earn eligibility. NIU is 7-3. The Huskies can improve their berth with a win, but I think the more desperate home side steps up and delivers in this crucial moment. Buffalo is off a humbling 27-point loss to Miami Ohio. NIU posted a tight one-point win at home over Ball State for its seventh win of the year and I think it'll have a letdown here. Rocky Lombardi is in unchartered territory and I expect him to stumble. This is Kyle Vantrease's moment to step up. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a 24-points or greater SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. The outright is possible, but grab the points! 8* SPECIAL on Buffalo. |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -15.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
Bowling Green/Miami Ohio. With a chance to earn bowl eligibility with a win today, I expect the Redhawks to not only win here today at home in this favorable matchup, but to do it in blowout style. Bowling Green is just 3-7 SU this year. It's a disproportianate 7-3 ATS though. Miami Ohio is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. Bowling Green was just torched 49-17 at home by Toledo and I think it'll have a difficult time keeping pace here today as well as an even bigger underdog. Miami Ohio ran up thescore in last weekend's 48-18 win here at home over Buffalo as a 7-point favorite and all signs point to a duplicate game-plan here. 10* COACHES CORNER Miami Ohio. |
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11-13-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia +6 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Notre Dame/Virginia Both teams are eligible. Each is looking to improve its bowl berth now. An upset victory over the Irish would sure look good on the Cavs resume. While it's not out of the question obviously, I'm going to grab the points in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments. The Irish have used three different QB's this season (Jack Coan, Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne.) The Notre Dame defense is elite as well. Last week it held Navy to 6 points. The Cavaliers won their sixth game of the year, then they came up short in last week's 66-49 loss to BYU on October 30th. They come out of their bye week having posted 48 or more points in three straight games. With a week off to prepare, I think UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall will have a good game-plan drawn up. As I said, I think the outright/upset is possible, but let's grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on UVA. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Auburn Auburn is 6-3 and it's now bowl elgible. Mississippi State is just 5-4 though, so I expect it to fight tooth and nail today to also become eligible. Outright win is possible, but let's grab the points. The Bulldogs are off a tight 31-28 loss to Arkansas, while Auburn fell 20-3 to Texas A&M. Mississippi State has lost three straight in this series, so it'll be motivated to reverse that trend. The Bulldogs are led by dynamic QB Will Rogers (great name!), as he's completed nearly 75.2 percent of his passes. Auburn has struggled against the pass, which doesn't bode well facing a Mike Leach offense. The Tigers have been good under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin. RB Tank Bigsby is an offensive standout. Auburn though is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mississippi State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a conference road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. The Bulldogs have so far covered as a road underdog in both such instances this season and everything points to that trend continuing today. 8* SHOW-DOWN on Mississippi State. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Wyoming/Boise State. Wyoming if 5-4. Boise State is 5-4. The Cowboys are just 1-4 in conference, while the Broncos are 3-2. The Cowboys kept their bowl hopes alive with a big 31-17 home win over Colorado State. I say they keep it rolling here. QB Levi Williams had 92 passing yards and two TDs. Boise State improved to one game over .500 last time out as well with a 40-14 road win at Fresno State, with QB Hank Bachmeier going 15 of 27 for 283 yards and a TD. Ultimately though in this crucial game, I tihnk it'll be the Cowboys' stout defensive play which keeps them in it late (concede only 21.3 PPG). Boise State is the better team, but I don't think by this many points. 10* PLAYBOOK on Wyoming. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show |
UNC/Pittsburgh. UNC needs one more win to become eligible, but I think it'll come up short on the short week. The Tar Heels had fight from behind all day in last week's upset OT win at home over Wake Forest. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! Pitt on the other hand is off a 54-29 win over Duke and I believe it's superior defense will prove to be the difference-maker today. The bottom line here is though, that this game doesn't in fact "mean more" to the Tar Heels. If Pitt wins out, then it'll earn a spot in the ACC Title game. The Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game as well, while the Tar Heels are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory. Lay the points and expect a decisive result. 10* ACC GAME OF YEAR on Pittsburgh. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
Ball State/NIU NIU is bowl eligible at 6-3, while Ball State needs one more victory as it's just 5-4. I think this matters. I believe the more desperate team will find a way to victory this evening (and that hungrier tearm is definitely the Cardinals!) NIU lost 52-47 at Kent State last time out and I think it comes in exhausted here. Ball State is off a 31-25 win at Akron, but it can't be happy with the performance as the Cardinals were a 20-point favorite in that one. The Huskies are terrible defensively and the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range. I'm laying the points, the play here is Ball State. |
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11-09-21 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -7 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
Buffalo/Miami Ohio. Buffalo is 4-5. It's gone 2-3 in conference play. They're off a 56-44 loss to Bowling Green. Miami Ohio is also 4-5. Both teams need two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Redhawks though are 3-2 in conference play. Off an upset 35-33 loss to Ohio, I like Miami Ohio to get back on track here in this crucial and important matchup. The Bulls' offense revolves around RB Dylan Mcduffee, but their defense concedes 31.8 PPG. That's bad news facing the Redhawks, who have the 34th ranked passing attack in the country with 264 yards per game. Keep your eyes on QB Brett Gabbert, who already has 1,435 passing yards. Buffalo's defensive issues come back to haunt it again. Lay the points, the play is Miami Ohio. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas This is a big game for both teams, as each sits at 5-3. They each need one more win to become bowl eligible. However, I really do think that the home field will be a big advantage for the Razorbacks today. Mississippi State is off a 31-17 home win over Kentucky, but I think it'll stumble here on the road. Arkansas State won't be lacking for motivation here obviously, as it's just 1-3 and last in the SEC West. Arkansas pulled off the upset 21-14 last year over Ole Miss as a 16.5-point dog. Will Rogers was 36 of 39 for Ole Miss last weekend, but I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for him this weekend. Arkansas comes in rested as well off its bye. The Razorbacks are 100% healthy and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when coming out of their bye week and playing at home. Look for Ole Miss to stumble off last week's big win and for the rested home side to pull away down the stretch. |
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10-30-21 | Duke v. Wake Forest -16.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 104 h 7 m | Show |
Duke @ Wake Forest Duke comes into this ACC Matchup with a 3-4 record. Last week, they got absolutely torched by UVA 48-0. That makes them now 0-8 their past 8 games played against opponents from this conference. On the road this year, the Blue Devils are a sad 0-3 ATS. They've also allowed 440+ yards per game from their opponents. The Demon Deaconds come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record. They are off a huge win against Army where they dropped 70 points on the scoreboard. Dating back a few seasons, Wake Forest is a dominant 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. QB Sam Hartman has been unbelievable this season as well. With 19 TDs and only 3INTs, while adding 4 more TDs on the ground, Wake couldn't be more happy. With Wake Forest having beaten UVA by 20, and Duke losing to them by 50, I expect no short of an annihilation this Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Michigan @ Michigan State Two 7-0 teams collide on Saturday afternoon. This has all the feelings of a good old fashioned "slobber knocker." I think that the team that has possession of the football last is going to come out on top, it's seriously that close. And so, that definitely means that I'm going to grab the points and the determined home side. One thing benefitting MSU here is it comes out of its bye week. It's had an entire week off to prepare for this one. These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Their offenses for the most part revolve around the run game. MSU though is 5-1 ATS in its last six here against the Wolverines, while Michigan is interestingly 0-5 ATS in its last five against the East Division. There are more on the line that just bragging rights this season. Major implications for the College Football Playoff race and the Big Ten are on the line today. Everything points to, at the very least, a comfortable cover for the home side. The play is MSU. |
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10-23-21 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -3 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Pittsburgh I like Pittsburgh to keep the foot on the gas in this one. Clemson is 4-2 and 3-1 in the ACC, most recently coming off a tight 17-14 win against Syracuse, unable to cover the large spread. The Panthers are 5-1 and 2-0 in conference. They most recently beat Virginia Tech 28-7. DJ Uiagalelei passed for 181 yards and one touchdown in Clemson's win last weekend, but he now faces one of the best defenses he's ever played against. Pittsburgh has conceded just 35 points in its past three games and it hasn’t allowed more than 100 yards rushing in those contests. The Panthers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Conference, while the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I think Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is the difference-maker in the end. Lay the points, the play is on Pittsburgh. |
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10-23-21 | Cincinnati -28 v. Navy | 27-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Cinci @ Navy Now 6-0 including a huge win against the Irish at South Bend, the Bearcats are looking like one of the best teams in the nation yet again this year. With 16 total TDs and only 2 INTs, QB Desmond Ridder is definitely in the MVP conversation. He's looking to build on that against a struggling Navy squad. To be completely honest, the Midshipmen have been awful. With a 1-5 record on the season, they are a miserable 1-10 in their last 11 games dating back to last season. Let's not forget in the last meeting against Cinci, Navy failed to even get on the board in the 42-0 loss (2018.) Expect the #2 team in the country to absolutely destroy this weak Navy team. The line might scare people off, but it won't be enough, I guarantee it. Take Cinci |
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10-16-21 | Army +13 v. Wisconsin | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 133 h 5 m | Show | |
Army @ Wisconsin Army is 4-1 after losing to Ball State on the road by 12 points. I think the Black Knights can bounce back here though. Wisconsin enters at 2-3 after beating Illinois by 24 on the road. But despite stumbling last week, Army still averages 34.4 PPG. QB Christian Anderson has 431 rushing yrds and five touchdowns. The Badgers are coming off a shutout, but note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS road shutout victory in which they scored 21 or more points in. QB Graham Mertz has 781 passing yards, but only two passing TD's. Wisconsin is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The Badgers only average 19.6 PPG, while Army averages 20.8. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin pulling away. Grab the points, the play is Army. |
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10-16-21 | Liberty -32 v. UL-Monroe | 28-31 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
Liberty @ UL Monroe This is a complete mismatch no matter how you look at it. Liberty comes into this game with only the one loss (5-1) against Syracuse, but they are 17-2 in thier last 19 games dating back to last season. Louisiana Monroe is only 2-6 in their last 6 games played at home. The Flames have limited opponents to only 164.5 passing yards per game, while UL Monroe has given up 466 total yards per game. Take Liberty and expect it to be one of the biggest blowouts of the day |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Sd St @ Sj St Have you ever heard the story of David vs. Goliath? In that story, the underdog somehow manages to win against all odds. That's not going to be the case here today though in my opinion. SDSU is led by RB Greg Bell offensively. So far he has 94 rushes for 520 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with five TD's. I can't see SJSU mustering much off an offensive attack against SDSU, which concedes just 16.6 points per contest. The Spartans only allow 23.8 PPG, but their strength of schedule has to be questioned. This is one of the best offenses that SJSU has seen. And there's no question it's the best defense it's seen. Look for SDSU to pull away for a comfortable win and cover as this one comes down the stretch. ANNIHILATION on SDSU |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -2.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska Michigan is going to have a letdown, but it's not going to be this weekend. The Wolverines are 5-0, most recently coming off a 38-17 victory over Wisconsin. Nebraska is off a 56-7 win over Northwestern. The Wolverines won four straight at home though before hitting the road and defeating the Badgers last weekend. I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace with this high-flying Wolerines offense though that enters averaging 40.2 PPG. QB Cade McNamara has 731 yards passing and five TD's, while RB Blake Corum has 521 rushing yards and seven major scores on the ground. Michigan allows just 12.8 PPG, while Wisconsin concedes 15.5 Previous to last week's win, the Huskers had lost two straight. Wisconsin averages 32.2 PPG, led by Adrian Martinez who has 1,463 passing yards, six TD's and two INT's. Nebraska though is a poor 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Michigan faced the best rush defense in the nation last weekend and still posted over 100 yards. Go with the Wolverines here to pull away down the stretch. |
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10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 52 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State Coastal Carolina is averaging 48.2 PP, which ranks second in the natoin. Its strength is its run game which ranks fifth in the nation. Arkansas State just gave up over 500 rushing yards in its last game. Arkansas State has scored 67 points over its last two games, but it's conceded 100. In fact Arkansas State currently ranks the second-worst in the FBS in allowing 45.6 PPG. Each team's numbers are a bit skewed because of the level of competition it's faced, but regardless, we have essentially the No. 1 offense in the nation, going up against the worst defense in the country. This one is going to get ugly fast and I simply don't see Grayson McCall and this stable of CC RB's taking the foot off the gas, even if they have a huge lead. The Red Wolves are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 or more points in their previous game, while CC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. Lay the points, the play is Coastal Carolina. |
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10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
Florida @ Kentucky Florida is good, but that loss to Bama could come back to haunt them later in the year. Although being 3-1 this season, the Gators are only 3-4 in thier last 7 games. CB Kaiir Elam will most likely play, but he might be bothered by his knee a bit this game. He's their only guy who's forced an INT this season so far. Many may consider this Kentucky team a joke, but they are 4-0 for a reason. With wins over Mizzouri and South Carolina, the Wildcats are looking like one of their strongest groups in a long time. Dating back to last year, they've now won 6 straight games. Florida is definitely the favorites and everyone expects them to blow UK out. But don't underestimate the Wildcats. I expect a close hard/rough game this Saturday. Give me Kentucky. |
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10-02-21 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -33.5 | Top | 6-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina After getting dominated in week 1, UL Monroe has won two straight to get back in the bowl hunt. Although they are 2-1, they've been awful on the road. Dating back to last season, the Warhawks are a terrible 0-9 in their last 9 road games. they are also 1-8 in their last 9 games played against teams in their Conference (Sun Belt.) Coastal Carolina has been near perfect dating back to last season, with only the one loss. After last week's 53-3 win, the Chanticleers are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. I expect QB McCall to have anothe excellent game against this weak opponent. This is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball and the oddsmakers know it. The spread is big, but it's not big enough. Expect atleast a 40pt win for CCU. |
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10-02-21 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Georgia | 0-37 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Georgia Off a dominant win against the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend, the Razorbacks sure aren't getting the respect that they deserve yet. Being ranked #8 is a good spot for them. But +19 against a team that's ranked 6 spots ahead of them, C'mon. If you didn't watch last weekend, Arkansas absolutely crushed A&M. Georgia has been excellent don't get me wrong, but 19 points is way too much. The Bulldogs are dealing with injuries all over the place too. George Pickens, one of the best WRs in America is out (as we knew,) QB JT Daniels is still dealing with a back injury, big time LB Nolan Smith is probable, but he's been hurt with one of his legs, and big TE Darnaell Washington is Questionable with a foot injury. Both teams come in undefeated and only one will stay that way. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Razorbacks pulled this one off, but I'll gladly take them +19. |
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10-01-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Tulsa | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 28 m | Show | |
Houston @ Tulsa Houston is 3-1 and Tulsa is 1-3. Off a 41-34 win over Arkansas State last week, I think the Golden Hurricane will take a step back here. The Cougars are coming off a 28-20 home win over Navy. Clayton Tune had 257 yards and a TD. Davis Brin had 355 yards, three TD's and a pick in his team's win over the Red Wolves. Houston's only conceding 16.3 PPG this year, while Tualsa is allowing 30.5. The road team has covered in eight of the past nine meetings, so I'm grabbing the points and rolling with Houston in this one. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia +17 v. Oklahoma | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma The Mountaineers are now 2-1 after a 27-21 win over then No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech. The Sooners are off a 23-16 victory over Nebraska as 22.5 point favorites. So far WVU is averaging 39 PPG, throwing for 271.3 and rushing for 139.7. QB Jarret Doege had 193 yards, two TD's and an INT last week. The Mountaineers have also been good defensively in conceding just 17 PPG. The Sooners may be 3-0, but I think they'll have a fight on their hands here today. Okalahoma is averaging 45.7 PPG, while allowing 17. Spencer Rattler had 214 yards and a TD in the Sooners victory last week. Oklahoma though is poor in this spot for bettors (3-8 ATS its last 11 after scorign 40 or more points in its previous game), while WVU has been good (5-1 ATS its last six games played in September.) I think the Sooners are susceptible defensively. Grab all these points, the play is West Virginia 10* BIG PLAY |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Texas | 35-70 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Texas The Longhorns are 2-1, while the Red Raiders are undefeated. To say this is a "revenge" game though would be an understatement for the Red Raiders here, as they've lost three in a row in this series, including a 63-56 OT thriller last year. Texas Tech hasn't played the stiffest of competition yet, but it's passed all early tests easily. In the most recent win over FIU, QB Tyler Shough had 399 yards passing and four touchdowns. Texas is off a 58-0 win over Rice. The previous week the Longhorns loast 40-21 to Arkansas. Texas took out its frustrations on Rice and rolled up 620 yards of offense. The Longhorns though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after posting a shutout win in their previous outing. I think his Red Raiders' offense can hang with Texas late (like last year!) Grab the points 8* SHOWDOWN |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 3 m | Show | |
Marshall @ Appalachian State Off a tough loss to Eastern Carolina last weekend, Marshall now travels to North Carolina where they'll take on the always dangerous Mountaineers. Although they are 2-1, the Thundering Hurd are 1-2 ATS on the season, 1-4 dating back to last year. They've also lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. For Appalachian State, they've looked very sharp, despite losing a tough one to Miami. They are now a dominant 19-1 in thier last 20 games played at home. They are aksi 8-1 in their last 9 games against opponents from the Conference USA. Having said that, I think Marshall will be very shy/unconfident after that shocking loss last week. Expect the Mountaineers to jump all over that and make them pay. Take App State. |
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09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Arakansas State @ Washington Off a heartbreaking loss in Week 2 against Memphis, Arkansas St falls to 1-1. That makes them only 2-6 in their last 8 games dating back to last season. Even worse, they are only 1-7 L8 games played on the road. The Huskies have not looked good this season either. It's obvious that they are struggling. But, they've domianted the Sun Belt Conference in the past and I expect that to continue here. They are also 16-4 in their last 20 games played at home. While this will be a wet/rainy game in Washington, I believe that the bigger name school will show the country that they aren't the joke everyone thinks they are here. Also, look for TE Cade Otton to have a big game here. Take Washington. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 11 m | Show | |
Maryland @ Illinois After upsetting Nebraska out of the gate, it seemed Illinois might be poised for a fast start. The Fighting Illini lost their next two games though. This is a team with a new coach essentially in a rebuilding year. The Illini are 1-5 ATS their last six games. The Terrapins beat West Virginia and then won their next game by a score of 62-0. No rebuilding for them. Their coach is in his third year here and they've got big plans for the season. In the only previous meeting, the Terrapins outgained Illinois by a 712-493 margin, crushing them 63-33. The Terrapins ran for more than 400 yards. That was in 2018 but 2021 looks like another big win. Lay the points with Maryland. |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army -6.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -116 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Army Western Kentucky comes into this game off a week 1 win against a not so good Tennessee-Martin team. The Hiltoppers may have won that game, but I expect a completely different outcome here. The Hilltoppers are only 2-9-1 ATS in their L12 games played on Saturday. The Black Nights looked absolutely dominant in week 1 against Georgia State (as an underdog) making it look easy. Army only threw the ball 4 times total, but when you can run the ball 67 times and average 4 yards per carry it's going to be tough for any team to compete against that. Army is also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games played at home. Although both teams are off a win, the Black Nights looked like they could beat some of the best teams in the league with their unique play-style. Look for Army to dominate from the opening kickoff. Tale Army |
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09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -25 | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 84 h 25 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Coastal Carolina What? A team from the Sun Belt laying this many points against a Big 12 team? It must be some kind of joke. That's the reaction some might have if they didn't know the real story. Kansas isn't just any Big 12 team. The Jayhawks are the single worst Big 12 team. Coastal Carolina isn't just any Sun Belt team. The Chanticleers are the best SBC team. They won 11 games last year and brought back 19 starters. Week 1 saw them deliver a 52-14 blowout. The Jayhawks kept things reasonably close against Coastal Carolina the past two years. This is the first time they meet in Conway though and its going to get ugly. Lay the points with Coastal Carolina. |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss -9 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Louisville vs. Ole Miss The underdog came back to cover in last night's game. The Rebels will make sure it doesn't happen twice in a row. The Cardinals aren't a bad team. The problem is that Ole Miss is a lot better than they even realize. The Rebels were tied 42-42 in a game against Alabama last season and they return 17 starters from that team. The offense is among the best in the country and the defense will be much better than last year. The Rebels are 13-5 last 18, against the spread in neutral site games. Last time they opened the season at a neutral site, they beat Texas Tech 47-27. This one should play out similarly. Lay the points with Ole Miss. |
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09-04-21 | Northwestern State v. North Texas -20 | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Northwestern State @ North Texas Big class difference between these schools, as evidenced by the pointspread. North Texas has a big game at SMU next and will use this game to build confidence for that one. They haven't won at SMU since 1933 but with an experienced team, this could be the year they have a shot. Blowing out Northwestern State will help prepare for that possibility. Mean Green bring back 19 starters, 9 on offense, 10 on defense. Those 19 returning players began last year with a 57-31 beating of another outmatched team. Coach Littrell is 5-0 in his games against FCS schools, winning by nearly 30 points per game. Lay the points with North Texas. |
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09-04-21 | Penn State +5.5 v. Wisconsin | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Wisconsin Two quality teams here, making this a very big game. Wisconsin has plans to win the West. Penn State hopes to challenge Ohio State in the East. The Nittany Lions outgained Big Ten opponents by +102 yards per game last season and they're going to be better this year. Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS their last four and 6-1 ATS their last seven in September. Badgers are 1-4 ATS last five overall, 0-4 ATS last four Big Ten games. Wisconsin is always tough but Penn State has still won the last four meetings. Three were decided by 7 or less. Grab the points with Penn St. |
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09-03-21 | Old Dominion v. Wake Forest -32.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -109 | 633 h 27 m | Show | |
Old Dominion Monarchs @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons The Monarchs haven't played a game since 2019 and in that season, they were an awful 1-11, including losing each of their last 10. Because of their year off, they have lost some key players and will lack experience out there this campaign. Even the coach is new and hasn't coached a single NCAAFB game as HC in his life. Entering this game against the Demon Deacons, the Monarchs are a sad 1-5 ATS in their L6 week 1 games. Expect another dreadful year from there guys. Wake Forest is bringing back 20 of thier 22 starters from last season, including every offensive starter. Although they ended the season 4-5, they beat teams like Virginia Tech on the road when they were ranked #19th in the country. Dating back to 2019, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home in their last 6 games. This year I expect a much stronger group of guys with much more experience to bring home a bowl game. With Wake Forest as the much better team, I expect a blowout here in North Carolina. -32 is a lot, but this one should be easier than people think. Take the Demon Deacons! |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State -9.5 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
East Carolina vs. Appalachian State The Mountaineers are loaded on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State averaged better than 34 points last season, as well as more than 450 yards. Many of the skill players that put up those numbers are back. The secondary was already the best in the Sun Belt and the Mountaineers bring back 10 defensive starters. The Pirates are a bad defensive team. They will have trouble stopping the balanced Mountaineer attack. Thursday night football has not been kind to ECU. The Pirates are 5-12 ATS their last 17 Thursday games. They are also 4-11 ATS their last 15 outside of their own conference. The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball. They won't be stopped in this one. Lay the points with Appalachian State. |
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08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 324 h 58 m | Show | |
UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies Although having a rough 3-5 2020 campaign, the Miners have high expectations for this season. With every offensive starter returning, they'll have all the chemistry in the world. Dating back to last season, UTEP is 4-1 ATS thier L5 games AND, going back even further, they are 4-2 SU in their L6 games played in August. In the past, Texas El Paso has owned this series as they are a dominant 8-3 the past 11 games against the Aggies. New Mexico State is coming off a 2020 where they played 0 games. They did play 2 spring games this year though and that might of helped a little bit. But the Aggies are returning just 3 of 22 starters from 2019 and I expect that to be a problem this season. In the 2 games this spring QB Jonah Johnson only threw for 358 yards, with 1TD and 3INTs. They did have some success running the ball but I believe that UTEP will be able to shut that down for most of the game. NMSU is also a sad 0-6 in their last 6 season openers. Having said all that, the Miners are the far better side and has played with each other for a long time. I expect a dominant win here for them. Take UTEP with ease. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: A&M averages 31.67 PPG and it allows 21.1. UNC averages 43.0 PPG, while allowing 28.36. Both teams are dealing with injury issues and with players opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft, but I still think that Texas A&M is a bit of a fraud. The SEC overall had a down year and the Aggies numbers are skewed a bit in my opinion. UNC's offense is potent and it's faced some of the best defenses around. The pick: A&M is good, but not good enough to be the fifth ranked team in the nation. I'll point out as well that UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 7 to 9.5 points range. Look for these two hungry teams to battle tooth and nail until the final moments and make sure to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on North Carolina. |
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01-02-21 | Kentucky v. NC State +2.5 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
The set-up: NC State won each of its last four games, including over Florida State, Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Kentucky on the other hand lost four of its last five. I like Bailey Hockman in this matchup, as Kentucky's secondary and defense overall is banged up. The pick: NC State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. The Wildcats only scored an average of 21.7 PPG this year and I think they'll have trouble keeping pace down the stretch. Grab the points. This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on NC State. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 292 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of the College Football Playoff Semifinal. Clemson has faced the 36th toughest schedule and Ohio State has faced the 67th. Ohio State beat Northwestern 22-10 to win the Big Ten Championship, while Clemson won the ACC crown with a 34-10 win over Notre Dame. This game features two of the best QB's in the nation in Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. The Buckeyes average 42.5 PPG, and they concede 21, while Clemson averages 44.9 PPG, while allowing 17.5. The pick: Clemson though is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after postin more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 as an underdog. This is the first non-conferece game for each team and I think that Fields has the offense to keep this one close and competitive until the final moments. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Badgers snapped a three-game slide with a 20-17 win over Minnesota in their finale and I think they're going to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Demon Deacons enter having lost back-to-back games, including a humbling 45-21 loss to Louisville as one point favorites last time out. Wake has a good offense, which averaged 37 PPG, but it was atrocious defensively, allowing 31.6. Sam Hartman was a bright spot for the Wake, finishing with 1,906 passing yards, ten TD's and just one INT. The pick: Wisconsin only averaged 22.3 PPG, but it made up for it on the other end by playing "lights out" defense, conceding just 15.7 PPG this year. Graham Mertz finished with eight TD's and five interceptions this season, but note that the Badgers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after allowing 18 points or less in a SU victory in their last outing. I think Wisconsin effectively slows down Wake and I look for Mertz to take advantage of this extremely bad Wake secondary. Lay the points! This is a 10* play on Wisconsin. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State was 7-3 in Big 12 play. The Cowboys alternated wins and losses over the final month. Miami was 8-2 overall. The Hurricanes were on a five-game win streak before a 62-26 loss to UNC in their last game. The Cowboys have a strong run game, but Miami's rush defense is decent. Overall Oklahoma State averages 29.5 PPG, while allowing 21.9. QB Spencer Sanders though heads into this game without the services of top RB Chuba Hubbard. The pick: Miami averaged 34 PPG. QB D'Eriq King had 2,573 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Hurricanes allowed 26.0 PPG and I'd argue that their schedule was much more difficult than they Cowboys. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. While I respect the OK State rushing game, I think Miami's big line will contain that aspect and turn the Cowboys one-dimensional. I like King to post a big game here as well. I'm on the Hurricanes. This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Miami. |
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12-19-20 | Alabama v. Florida +17.5 | Top | 52-46 | Win | 100 | 152 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Alabama is really good. Great offense, great defense and it's well coached as well. Florida also has a really good offense and a decent defense. Florida lost to LSU last time out and even with a win today, it wouldn't make the College Football Playoff. But the Gators would love nothing more than to hand the Tide their first loss of the season. Despite the loss to LSU last weekend, QB Kyle Trask still had 474 yards passing and two TD's. The Bama defense has been sharp of late, but the unit has yet to see an offense quite as dynamic as this. The pick: Mac Jones is in line for the Heisman now, but for a few weeks Trask was in the conversation as well. With one last chance to impress, I like Trask to help his team keep this one interesting late. Note as well that Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 35 points or more in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. As I mentioned off the top, I don't predict an outright upset, but everything does point to this one being much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Florida. |
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12-12-20 | Appalachian State -8.5 v. Georgia Southern | 34-26 | Loss | -106 | 129 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: No upsets here, as I like the App State Mountaineers to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Neither team will be in the Championship game, but it's still an important contest to determine the second-place finisher in the division. App State lost 24-21 to Louisiana last time out. In that contest senior QB Zac Thomas had the absolute worst game of his career, going 10 of 21 for 92 yards and two interceptions. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that lightning bolt of futility to strike twice. Georgia Southern enters off a 20-3 win over FAU, using their backup QB in Justin Tomlin, who was 3 of 12 for 70 yards, while also rushing for an additional 78. Keep your eyes on Camerun Peoples for App State, as he has 738 rushing yards and seven TD's so far this season. The pick: Georgia Southern is stout against the run, but with its attention on Peoples, I'm predicting a massive bounce-back game here for the highly motivated Thomas. The QB issues are Georgia Southern aren't trivial. Getting by FAU is one thing, but trying to keep up with this pissed off Mountaineers side is quite another. I'm laying the points in this great situational spot. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on App State. |
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12-05-20 | Texas -7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 69-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Tom Herman is coaching for his job here for Texas. The Longhorns' offense revolves around Sam Ehlinger, who will look to move to a perfect 4-0 against K-State ofr his career. The Texas defense has taken a hit, but fortunately that unit faces the poor offense of the Wildcats, which have averaged just 362.2 yards per game of offense, with backup Will Howard now directing the show after Skylar Thompson went down with injury. The pick: To make matters worst for K-State, its defense has been even worse than its offense, allowing 426.6 yards per game and almost 270 of those yards through the air. And that's the difference-maker here for me entirely, as I expect Ehlinger to have himself a day here. Texas still has a chance to finish 7-3 (with a game at home against the lowly Jayhawks to finish it off.) I expect Ehlinger to take over this game on Saturday afternoon - lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas. |
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11-28-20 | TCU v. Kansas +24.5 | Top | 59-23 | Loss | -115 | 147 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Obviously TCU is the much better team. But it's not that much better. TCU is 3-4 and Kansas is 0-7. But with a game at Oklahoma State to end the season, I think the Horned Frogs take the foot off the gas in the second half. Kansas had its last game postponed, previous to that it lost 62-9 to Oklahoma. TCU had its two game win streak snapped in a 24-6 loss to WVU and I think it comes out flat-footed here vs. the lowly Jayhawks. Situationally speaking, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. TCU averages 24 PPG and it allows 26.7. Kansas has averaged 15.1 and allowed 48.4. The picks: I'm not going to try and tell you that the Jayhawks are going to win this game outright, as that's not going to be the case. I simply feel this is a really bad spot for TCU after last week's loss and with a bigger game next week vs. the Cowboys. This is the Jayhawks best shot at a win this year and I believe they play with pride and easily keep this one close with the large spread. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas. |
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11-28-20 | Northwestern v. Michigan State +11 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 142 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Northwestern is 5-0, while MSU is just 1-4. Clearly Northwestern is the better team, but I expect complacency to finally settle in here. Michigan State has had an extra week off to prepare as well for this one, so I expect the Spartans to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Wildcats are only allowing 12.6 PPG, but note that they're only scoring 25.8. Peyton Ramsey has been decent with eight TD's and our INT's, but I think the Wildcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. The picks: Rocky Lombard has seven TD passes and six INTs. MSU has allowed 33.8 PPG over the last four games, but I think the extra time off to prepare will help them here. They also benefit facing this non-explosive Wildcats attack. With a game at Minnesota up next, I think Northwestern does indeed get caught looking ahead. Look for Lombardi to have a bounce back game here and to keep this one close. Grab the points. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan State. |
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11-28-20 | Ball State +9 v. Toledo | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 139 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: No outright, but closer than expected! Ball State enters on top form, having won two straight. The Cardinals offense is balanced, averaging almost 480 yards of offense per game and 33.3 points. Ball State is allowing 437 yards of offense, but with Toledo QB Eli Peters injured (possibly out), the door is open for Ball State RB Caleb Huntley and company. The picks: Carter Bradley could get the call here if Peter's leg injury keeps him out. Toledo has looked good on both sides of the ball, but note that the Rockets are still a poor 1-5 ATS their last six following an ATS victory, while the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog. I think this is a game that the visitors can win outright, but let's grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Ball State. |
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11-27-20 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +6.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -112 | 103 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: Here is another great "situational" play. I think CMU is the better team in this matchup, but after falling 52-44 to rival Western Michigan in its last outing, I look for the visiting side to come out flat vs. the lowly Eagles. EMU is winless and it's hungry to get off the schneid (note that it's lost two of its games by seven points or less.) These two QB's are a "wash" as well, as CMU's Daniel Richardson and EMU's Preston Hutchinson have similar numbers. The pick: Note as well that CMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after allowing 50 or more points in a SU loss in its last outing. The conditions are right for an outright upset here, but let's grab the points! This is an 8* play on EMU. |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: The picks: This is an 8* play on UNC |
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11-27-20 | Central Florida v. South Florida +24.5 | 58-46 | Win | 100 | 102 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: The picks: This is an 8* play on USF. |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska +14 v. Iowa | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 100 h 4 m | Show | |
The set-up: Iowa is 3-2. It started 0-2 and has won three in a row. Nebraska is 1-3 and it comes in under the radar here. Nebraska comes in off a poor showing at home against Illinois, so there is some overreaction here about how bad the Huskers really are in my opinion. Iowa comes in off a big win over Penn State on the road. Iowa's defense has been the difference maker though, as QB Spencer Petras has four INT's and three TD's this year. The picks: Nebraska has allowed 34.3 PPG in the early going, which obviously is poor. The Huskers catch a bit of a break facing this Iowa offense which averages 180 YPG on the ground. The Huskers' offense has put points on the board, averaging 21.3 PPG. Nebraska has two QB's in Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey and I think they'll keep their team competitive late. No outright, but look for Iowa to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door. This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on Nebraska. |