We like the Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs game to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 6:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Buffalo is coming off a 27-25 win over Baltimore in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

The Bills have now seen the total finish OVER in eight of their L11 games.

Five of their L6 games played on the road have also gone OVER the total.

Kansas City played well defensively against Houston in its first game, but this is a big difference in offensive level from its opponents.

The Chiefs and Bills have gone OVER in five of their L7 games played against each other.

The score was 30-21 going OVER the total earlier this season when these teams played. That included one quarter seeing no points.

This one will go OVER as well.

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We like the Minnesota Vikings to defeat the Los Angeles Rams on Monday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Minnesota got shut down in the last game of the season against Detroit scoring only nine points.

The Vikings were going to travel across the USA to an LA city that's currently "burning up" due to wildfires, but now this game has been moved to Arizona which just barely a shorter flight.

We think that they could definitely have some trouble scoring again against the Rams who will be rested up for this game.

Minnesota's defense is also strong though. With its "show blitz" looks, it could confuse the Rams offense a bit.

Before last weekend, Los Angeles saw the total stay UNDER in three games in a row.

The Rams have also seen the total go UNDER in five straight games played on a Monday (Prime-time.)

We think that this line is too high and that we will see a good showing from both of these defenses tonight.

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We like the Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 8:20pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Minnesota has averaged 31.5 points a game over its L4 games this season.

The Vikings have seen the total go OVER in four their L6 games.

They've also seen their games finish OVER in 7 of their L8 games played within their own division - NFC North.

Detroit is averaging 33.3 points a game throughout this season, ranking them 1st in the NFL.

The Lions have seen the total go OVER in 5 of their L6 games this year.

Each of the L6 games between these two teams have finished OVER.

We know this is one of the biggest totals that we've seen this season. But, it's for a good reasons. This one goes OVER.

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We like the New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

New Orleans is averaging less than 20 points a game this season.

The Saints have seen the total stay UNDER in each of their L5 games.

Five of their L6 games played against opponents from the NFC have finished UNDER as well.

Tampa has shut teams down over its L3 wins. In those games, they are allowing an average of just 14.66 points a game.

Over the L6 meetings between these two teams, five of them have stayed UNDER.

Tampa should be prepared for this game defensively. A win puts them in the playoffs without any scare.

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We like the Penn State Nittany Lions @ Boise State Broncos game to finish OVER the total on Tuesday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Penn State blew the roof off in their opening playoff game versus SMU, scoring 38 points.

The Nittany Lions are much more dangerous this season in the passing game, not just running, which is why they score a lot more points. That's also the reason for being double digit favorites today,

The Nittany Lions have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games now.

Boise State loves to score. The Broncos average 39.1 points a game, which is top three in the country.

Ashton Jeanty believes he got robbed of the Heisman. Needing 131 more yards to break Barry Sanders' record for most rushing yards ever in a season, he should get that today and some.

The Broncos won't make this game easy for PSU. We think a high scoring game is on the cards.

This game will go OVER.

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We like the Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Dallas is scoring a lot more now that Cooper Rush has had a few games to get settled in.

Since week 12, the Cowboys are averaging 27.4 points a game.

They have seen the total go OVER in five of their L6 games.

Philadelphia lost because of a missed catch by Devonta Smith last weekend (33-36.)

The Eagles are a run first team. But, they still score lots of points.

Six of the L8 games between these two teams have finished OVER the total.

We think that this one will go OVER this total as well.

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We like the Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Arizona might be out of the playoff race now. But, the road team will still fight and try and spoil other division opponents playoff chances.

The Cardinals have a solid defense and held the Rams to just 10 points when they met earlier this season.

They have seen the total finish OVER in three straight games, making this total higher than it should be.

The Rams are only averaging 21.9 points a game which is low considering that they are the sizable favorite.

Los Angeles has seen the total go UNDER in five of its L6 games played as the betting favorite.

We think that this one stays UNDER the high total as well.

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We like the New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 4:25pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

New England is 3-11 this season averaging just 17.0 points a game.

The Pats have gone OVER in most games this season. But, their offense will not get them many points in this game.

Over the L4 meetings in Buffalo between these two teams, the Patriots are averaging just 18.75 points a game.

Buffalo has been scoring easily lately. We think they will slow down a bit in this divisional matchup.

The Bills need to improve their time management and defense before the playoffs. It's fun playing in high scoring games when you win, but it might come back to cost them in a playoff game.

We think they work on that here and this one stays UNDER the total.

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We like the Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers game to finish OVER the total on Thursday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Over the L4 games, Denver is averaging 34.75 points per game themselves.

The Broncos have now seen the total go OVER in seven of their L10 games.

The OVER is also 4-1 in their L5 games played inside the AFC West.

With Dobbins out, the Chargers have been forced to throw a bit more than they did earlier this season.

The Chargers have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games played at home.

We know these teams have great defenses. But, we think the offenses will take control and steer this one OVER the total on TNF.

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We like the New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

New York has been playing disappointing football nearly every week of this season. NYJ is 3-10 now on the year.

The Jets have been in high scoring games lately, but this game should be a lot lower scoring of a contest. They've scored an average of 18.4 points per game on the road.

Jacksonville hasn't been scoring much either lately. JAX has scored an average of just 11.5 points over the L4 games.

The Jaguars are also coming off a game where they shut down Tennessee completely allowing six total points.

The Jags have seen each of their L5 games stay UNDER the total as well.

We think that this one will stay UNDER easily today.

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We like the Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights to finish OVER the total on Friday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tulane really played well offensively in conference play scoring an average of 41.25 points per game over the eight games.

The Green Wave have seen four of their L6 games played in the month of December finish OVER the total.

The OVER is also 2-0 over their L2 meetings between these two teams.

Army will be able to run the ball. Even against a top team like Notre Dame, they were able to run for 200+ yards.

The Black Knights are averaging 32.7 points per game this season. We think they would only need around 20 for this game to go OVER.

The total is quite low because of these two teams loving to run the ball. We think this game goes OVER even with all of the running that we're expecting to see.

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We like the UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 4:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Miners have seen the total finish UNDER in five of their L6 games played against the Aggies.

Both teams are averaging less than 20 points a game this season.

In six road games this season, UTEP have scored just 61 points. That's 10.17 per game.

NMST allowed just seven points against UTEP last season.

The last time they met together at the Aggies field, they finished with just 33 total points in a game where the total was 59.5

We think this one stays below the total as well!

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We like the New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys game to finish OVER the total on Thursday at 4:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Giants haven't been very good this year. They cut their QB and now will take on a Division Rival on Thanksgiving Thursday. This will be treated like their Super Bowl.

When the Giants have met with the Cowboys in Dallas, five straight meetings have finished OVER the total.

Overall, the OVER is 8-4 over their L12 meetings between these two teams.

Dallas have also seen the total go OVER in nine of their L13 games since the end of last year.

The Cowboys looked very good offensively last weekend against Washington scoring 34 points.

This line is very low. We think this one goes OVER the total.

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We like the Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 8:20pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As we saw last week, both offenses can score. But, we expect a more defensive style of football game today.

The Rams have seen the total go UNDER in four of their L6 games this season.

LAR have also been in games that have gone UNDER the total in five of their L7 games played in November.

The Eagles and their opponents have kept the total UNDER in eight of their L12 games since last season.

The UNDER is also 8-2 in the Eagles' L10 games played away from home.

Their last matchup back in 2023 stayed UNDER by double digits!

We think another UNDER is on the cards today, especially in Primetime.

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We like the Army Black Knights @ Notre Dame Fightining Irish game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Army has yet to lose this season, averaging more than 35 points a game. But they have also yet to face a team like Notre Dame.

Off the bye week, the Black Knights should be a lot more competitive that Navy was against the Irish.

Notre Dame has loved scoring points this season. They average 38 points a game.

The Fighting Irish have seen the total go OVER in 11 of their L16 games overall.

Notre Dame have also seen nine of their L10 games played in the month of November finish OVER the total.

Last season, and even though it stayed UNDER, the Irish put up 44 points themselves in this matchup.

We believe that this year's will be a lot closer, leading to more points and an OVER on Saturday night.

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We like the Kentucky Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns to stay UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Kentucky have held teams to some very low scores this season including Georgia (13), @Ole Miss (20) @Tennessee (28) etc..

The Wildcats have seen the total finish UNDER in seven of their L12 games since last season.

Texas have had one of the best defenses in the entire country this season allowing under 12 points a game.

The game has stayed UNDER the total in four of their L5 games played as a favorite.

The Longhorns have also seen the total stay UNDER in five of their L6 games overall.

We think this one will be low scoring as both teams will stop long plays from happening. The clock will be running all game long today.

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We like the Akron Zips @ Kent State Golden Flashes game to finish OVER the total on Tuesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With two "bad" teams going head-to-head, we tend to lean on the OVER more than not.

Akron has seen the total finish OVER the total in seven of their ten games played this season.

7 of the L9 Akron games played in the month of November have gone OVER the total as well.

The Golden Flashes have seen the total go OVER in each of their L5 games played in week 13, the past five seasons.

We know that Kent State doesn't score much. But, this is the best chance that they are going to get to do so. At home against a 2-8 team. What more could you ask for.

We believe that Akron will reach at least 30 points, and for Kent State to get around 20. That puts us OVER the total.

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We like the Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints game to finish UNDER the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Browns have been quite substandard this year. They are 2-7 and are averaging only 16.4 points per game.

Relying on the running game more than ever, Cleveland should be doing the same thing today.

New Orleans is off their first win in seven games. They are averaging 22.7 points per game.

The Saints have seen four of the L5 home games in the month of November stay UNDER the total.

The last time they played, the O/U line was only 32 points. That game still went UNDER the total with 27 total points.

We'll take the UNDER today. Getting at least 44.0 could be huge if they get more points than we're expecting.

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We like the Arizona State Sun Devils @ Kansas State Wildcats game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Both ASU as well as KSU average more than 31 points per game.

They also both have trouble stopping their opponents at times allowing more than 21 points a game as well as scoring lots themselves.

Kansas State has seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games.

Arizona State have seen back to back games finish OVER the total.

They've only ever played versus each other once, in a game that finished with 61 total points.

This should be an entertaining battle between two 7-2 Big-12 opponents. We think the total is too low though and will select the OVER.

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We like the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Utah State Aggies game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 3:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

In all 10 games this season, Hawaii has yet to have a game go OVER the 60.0 mark. In fact, the highest combined score they've seen has only been 56 which was last week against UNLV (who average nearly 40 points a game themselves.)

Since last year, the Rainbow Warriors have seen the total go UNDER in 11 of their L15 games overall.

Utah State are a team that allows a lot of points. But, they should be a lot better this week than last. They will be up against a travelling Hawaii side.

The Aggies average 27.8 points per game. Hawaii averages just 22.0 points per game.

Hawaii's defense is a lot better than people expect from a 4-6 team. They don't allow many yards.

This game's total is so high because of USU's bad defense and solid offense. As they are the underdog, we don't see that coming into play.

A lower scoring game than the Aggies are used to should be on the cards today.

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We like the Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Ohio Bobcats to finish OVER the total on Wednesday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Eastern Michigan have been playing high scoring games this season. They have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5.

EMU have also seen the total finish OVER in seven of their L9 games played against MAC opponents.

Ohio have also seen some high scoring games lately. They've seen four of their L6 go OVER the total.

Even with their 6-3 record this season, the Bobcats tend to play close games. That could lead to lots of scoring today.

We don't see Ohio shutting out another opponent like last week. This will be a much close game.

This Over/Under line is too low for these two teams.

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We like the Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Even though their stats don't look the greatest, Indianapolis has a solid defense. They shut down the Vikings offense for the most part on SNF last weekend.

Even after allowing 27 last weekend to the Dolphins, the Bills have given up an average of just 15.66 points per game over the L3 weeks.

Buffalo have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last six games played away from home.

After last weeks game, the total has gone UNDER in four Indianapolis games in a row.

Seven of the past ten games between these two sides have finished UNDER the total.

We are expecting both teams to establish a running game early to chew some clock after failing to do so last week.

Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back after back to back losses. They'll focus on defense once again first and foremost. We're going with the UNDER in week 10's matchup between Buf/Ind.

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We like the Clemson Tigers @ Virginia Tech Hokies game to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Tigers lost their last game. But, they still have one of the best offenses in the country this year averaging 39.4 points per game which is top 10 in the FBS. Cade Klubnik has terrific stats. He will bounce back today.

Virginia Tech go seen the total go OVER in 10 of their L13 games played since last year.

VT have also seen the the total go OVER in five of their L6 played against teams in the Atlantic Division of the ACC.

Clemson is allowing 24.3 points per game against FBS competition this season which is definitely worse than in previous years.

If this was a night game, I'd see a lower scoring game. But, the Hokies crowd won't be as energetic here for an afternoon game.

The line is too low and we're going with the OVER.

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We like the Pittsburgh Panthers @ SMU Mustangs to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As both Quarterbacks are questionable for this game, we're expecting both to play. This is the biggest game of the year for both programs and they are not going to want to miss it.

Both teams have top offenses in the countries both averaging north of 39 points per game which puts them both in the top 15 on the season.

SMU was shut down a bit last week but won't stumble again. They are back at home this weekend where they average 45.5 points per game.

The Mustangs have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five games this season.

The OVER is 5-3 in the Panthers' last eight games played as a road underdog.

This game has the makings of an all-time ACC classic between two top offenses. We're expecting a shootout.

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We like the Texas Tech Red Raiders @ TCU Horned Frogs to finish OVER the total on Saturday at 3:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Texas Tech got exposed last week as they allowed 59 points to a 3-4 Baylor team. Note that the Red Raiders were at home in that game.

TCU didn't score much last week. But, they didn't have to. They are still averaging more than 32 points per game this season with Texas Tech averaging more than 38 a game.

Both the defenses have tough times against good offenses. They both rank in the bottom 40 of the FBS in points allowed a game.

They also both have seen more OVER's than UNDER's this season so far.

TCU has played two similar matchups earlier on this year against two ACC opponents in SMU and UCF. Both games saw a bunch of points put up on the scoreboard.

The total is high, but we think it should be higher. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers with this being such a big conference game and the final score to go OVER the total.

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We like the Georgia Southern Eagles @ Old Dominion Monarchs game to finish UNDER the total on Thursday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

GASO and ODU have both seen more UNDER's than OVER's so far this season.

In their two meetings against each other (all-time,) both of them have finished UNDER the total.

Old Dominion is only averaging 23.1 points per game this season. As the slight favorite, they are expected to win this game.

Both teams have seen less than 50 points in each of their last two games played.

The Monarchs have seen the total has go UNDER in 8 of their last 11 games played vs. opponents in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference.

In a winnable game for both sides, this should be a defensive battle on Thursday night.

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We like the Houston Texans/Green Bay Packers game to finish OVER the total on Sunday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With Romeo Doubs/Christian Watson back last week, Jordan Love looked phenomenal. He threw for four touchdown passes in the win.

CJ Stroud looked just as strong last week. He didn't need to throw for many yards. But, he ended up with three touchdown passes himself.

Both of these offenses have plenty of quick strike ability. When one team scores, the other will want to match.

Houston allowed 21 points last week to a poor New England offense that ranks second last in the NFL in points per game. Just think what a team ranked in the top 10 (Green Bay) could do.

Green Bay has seen the total go OVER in 10 of their last 15 games.

Although the last meeting between these teams went UNDER, they still ended up with 55 points (line was 55.5.)

This is a banged up Houston defense with their "leader" Azeez Al-Shaair battling a knee injury. If he's able to go this week, we don't expect him to be 100%.

We're looking for a high scoring game this Sunday in what should be one of the matchups of the week that everyone wants to watch. The play is on the OVER. Get in on it fast because the line could go up!

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We like the Central Florida Knights @ Iowa State Cyclones game to finish UNDER the total at 7:30pm ET on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

After beginning the season with three straight wins, the Knights have gone the other way having lost now three in a row. They've scored just 47 total points over those past three games (15.66 per game.)

Iowa State's defense ranks among the nations best allowing just 285.3 yards per game so far this season which is 15th best in the FBS. The Cyclones also rank tied for fifth in the FBS in points allowed per game (11.0.)

UCF have seen four of their last five games played on the road stay UNDER the total. ISU have seen 10 of their last 13 games played at home stay UNDER the total.

These teams have never played against each other and might take a while to get used to the style's of one another.

The Knights will try and pound the rock in this game. That will cause the clock to be constantly running.

All signs point towards a low scoring conference matchup.

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We like the Marshall Thundering Herd @ Georgia Southern Eagles game to finish OVER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As the favorites in this game, we expect Marshall to win. In their wins this season, they are averaging 41.33 points per game.

GASO are averaging 31.6 points per game themselves and have put up 38+ in three out of five games this season.

In their last five home games, the Eagles have seen the total go OVER in four of them.

Georgia Southern have also seen the total go OVER in four of their last five divisional games inside of the Sun Belt (East.)

Their latest meeting last season finished with 71 total points (38-33.)

Both teams give up a bunch of points as well as scoring. They rank #110 and #111 in points allowed per game out of 133 FBS teams.

After putting up lots of points in wins in their last games, they'll want to keep it up this week.

All signs points towards an OVER. Get the best line you can.

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We like the Duke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to stay UNDER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Blue Devils enter this game as nearly a double digit underdog despite being 5-0. That should tell you something about the Yellow Jackets defense.

Both Duke and Georgia Tech have seen more UNDER's than OVER's this season so far.

Georgia Tech ranks 18th in FBS allowing just 90.2 rushing yards per game. Duke ranks 18th in FBS in passing defense allowing just 155.8 yards through the air a game.

Both of the past two meetings between Duke/GT have stayed UNDER the total.

The UNDER is also 7-2 in their last nine matchups against each other when Georgia Tech is the home favorite.

We are expecting a game featuring a lot of punts in this game on Saturday. Look for these teams to stay UNDER the total.

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We like the Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions to go Over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

We won with the under when the Lions played on primetime in Week 1. This is a far lower total though as that one was in the 50s. 

The Lions are averaging 399.7 yards per game, top 5 in the NFL. 

The Seahawks have scored 23 or more points in all 3 of their games. Since last year, they have scored 20 or more points in 7 straight games.

These teams faced each other last September and combined for 68 points. They also faced each other twice in 2022 and those games finished with 90 and 93 points! 

The over is the play! 

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We like Oregon vs Ucla to go Over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

The total is low. The last time these teams faced each other, the o/u line was 70.5.

The Ducks have the capability of going over this low total all by themselves. Oregon has scored progressively more every week and managed 49 points (and 546 yards) last game.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel leads the country with an 84% completion percentage. He's the only FBS QB above the 80% mark. The dual threat Gabriel can also beat teams with his legs.

UCLA has given up 76 points the last 2 games alone. UCLA QB Ethan Garbers threw for a career-high 281 yards with two touchdowns in his last game.

The last 4 meetings had scores of 45-30, 34-31, 38-35 and 42-21. All went over. 8 of the last 9 meetings have finished with at least 56. The over is the play.

We like Cincinnati and Washington under on Monday night for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

The Bengals are averaging only 17.5 points. The Commanders are averaging just 20.5 points. 

The Bengals offense is averaging just 272 yards per game. Their defense is allowing only 288 yards per game. 

Burrow threw for only 201 yards and 1 touchdown in his only previous game vs. Washington. The final score was 20-9. 

Washington is running the ball more than most teams in the league and they rank #3 in rushing yards per game. Those running plays keep the clocking ticking. 

The total is high. The play is the under. 

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We like the Chargers and Steelers to go over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total is very low, the lowest of any Week 3 game. It has dropped lower since it was released and that's providing strong line value. 

2. The Chargers just scored 26 points last game and that was when they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half.

3. The Steelers offense has struggled but both their games were on the road against strong defensive teams. The Chargers defense has also been strong but playing Carolina helped pad the stats. Playing at home should help the Steelers. 

4. Fields now has a couple of games under his belt with the Steelers and his confidence is growing. Herbert has an ankle injury but is pushing to play. If Easton Stick is forced to play, we feel that he'll outperform expectations. 

5. The last meeting (2021) finished with 88 points and the last 7 meetings have all produced at least 41 points.

The defenses have played well but this total is still too low. The offenses will be better than people expect. The play is on the over. 

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We like South Alabama and Appalachian State to finish over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total might seem high but South Alabama just scored 87 points in its last game.

2. The Jaguars are averaging 512.3 yards of offense per game and 48.3 points.

3. The Jaguars can score but their defense can be really bad. They gave up 52 points and 550 yards in their loss to North Texas. They returned only 3 defensive starters from last year.

4. Appalachian State has had some great defenses but this doesn't seem to be one of them. The Mountaineers gave up 66 against Clemson and are allowing 31.7 points and 447 yards per game.

5. The Mountaineers scored 38 points in their only home game. Playing a home game on ESPN against a leaky South Alabama defense, they will be motivated to put up a large number.

This will be a fast-paced game with a lot of big plays. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers and the final score to go over the total.

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New Orleans dismantled Carolina 47-10 at home, but now hitting the road for the first time to face this talented Dallas defense, we're expecting a completely difference pace and tempo from the visitors. Dallas returns home off a successful 33-17 win over the Browns, and we also think that the Cowboys will be looking to protect the ball better here and establish the run game throughout. Add up these game plans and you have a contest that's decided by field position and in the trenches. With the high-scoring Week 1 results, this is an extra high o/u line. We feel that these are two of the best defenses in football. New Orleans was just 4-5 on the road last year, while Dallas was 8-0 at home. Let's not overreact to Saints' QB Derek Carr's performance. Throwing for three TD's and only 200 yards looks good on paper, but then we remember who they were playing in Week 1. It's going to be significantly more difficult here vs. the Cowboys, who looked really good in shutting down DeShaun Watson and company. The Under is the play!

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We really respect both these defenses but this total is too low. Last year's game had a total of 46.5 and Georgia exceeded that all by itself. The final score was 51-13. The Bulldogs already had 34 by halftime and could have scored more in the 2nd half if Kentucky had forced them to do. Even a really good defense can't stop the powerful Bulldogs. Georgia is already averaging better than 40 points per game. Kentucky just gave up 31 points to South Carolina last week. This year, at least the Wildcats play at home which means they should have more success in remaining competitive. They also have a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan with a mandate to have a faster paced offense. The Bulldogs could go over this number again by themselves. But they won't need to, Kentucky is going to be helping to get this final score over the total. The play is the over!

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Many think UNLV is a sexy "dark-horse" pick to qualify for the CFP in January, and while that may or may not go on to be true, we do expect the Rebels to keep their recent offensive momentum rolling here against a Kansas team that's looking to rebound from an upset 23-17 loss at Illinois as a five-point favorite. Before that game, Kansas had scored 48 or more in 3 straight. These teams played last year and the Jayhawks won 49-36 on Boxing Day. It was a complete shootout and all signs point to another high-scoring affair here in our opinion as well. That game had a total of 65. This lower one is giving a lot of value. UNLV is off a 72-14 victory over Utah Tech and is playing a very up-tempo brand of football. With both teams putting up big numbers, we think for sure this Week 3 matchup has "over" written all over it as well!

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Plenty of reasons for us to like the over here. Buffalo's defense looked shaky in last week's 34-28 home win over the Cardinals. Josh Allen was great against the Dolphins last year, completing 81 percent of his passes while averaging 340 yards passing per game. He also averaged 42 yards per game rushing. Despite winning 20-17 last weekend, the Dolphins still allowed the Jags to rush for the seventh-most rushing yards last weekend. Keep in mind that 3 of the past 4 meetings have finished with more than 60 points. Each offense looked "rusty" in the first half, and each looked a lot better in the second. We look for that offensive trend to carry over here on Thursday with the final score finishing with more than 50 points.

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We have a great Monday night matchup to open the season and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch. I just a real common sense play here, as New York will be looking to get the most out of its 40-year-old investment under center. Aaron Rodgers will also feel he has something to prove this season obviously. These teams haven't played since 2020, and the 49ers won that contest by a score of 31-13 in New Jersey. We're definitely expecting a much more competitive game this time around. Rodgers has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense though is going to be tested facing Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey at home. San Francisco's last 10 home games have all finished over the 40 mark and 4 of the past 5 (and 7 of the 10) finished with 44 or more. Admittedly these are two good defenses, but in our opinion, everything points to these two dynamic quarterbacks "stealing the headlines." SF cannot be stopped and NY will have to score to keep up. This number has fallen from when it came out, right past the key number of 44, is low. Over is the play.

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Whenever the LA Rams and Detroit Lions get together, the focus turns to the two veteran QB's. Detroit got Jared Goff, who led his team to an NFC Championship last year, while LA got Matt Stafford, who led the Rams to a Super Bowl championship in his first season. The last time these teams met was in January, the final score was 24-23. The last time these teams met in the regular season was back in 2021 and the Rams won 28-19 at home. We're expecting a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring battle (relative to the very high total) here as well. Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine at home and the last thing it'll want to do here is to try and turn this into a "shootout" against Stafford. We're expecting Detroit to get Goff to be a game manager here and to control the tempo of this one. We should also mention that the Lions secondary is much improved from the last time that the Rams saw it. It was a weakness last year but will be a strength this season. With each offense getting out to a tentative start like we suspect, we're expecting this total to fall "under" the big number once it's all said and done!

This game is being played in Brazil, the first ever NFL game in South America. These types of scenarios often have a way of leading to more of a defensive lower-scoring outcome, due to the unfamiliarity of their surroundings. We have two really good QB's going head-to-head here, but we're expecting each side to put an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense. That helps take pressure off their defense and to keep the opposing QB on the bench. It also keeps the clock moving. Keep in mind that this is a very high total, much higher than the total of 46 that these teams had when they last faced each. Three of GB's last four games finished with 45 or less. The Eagles last 2 games finished with 41 or less. They'll score but not enough to surpass this high line. We're on the "under!"

10* UNDER 49ers/Chiefs (TOM)

Two great offenses. Two great defenses. Honestly, it would not be difficult for us to write a convincing argument for this to be a high-scoring game, but for a number of different reasons we are expecting Super Bowl 58 to be a very defensive affair. San Francisco averages 28.9 PPG, which ranks third, while allowing 17.5, which ranks third as well. Kansas City only averages 21.8 PPG though, which is 15th overall. The big news for the Chiefs in the postseason and throughout the regular season as well though has been their tough defensive play, as they enter the big game conceding 17.3, ranked second in the league. Despite having Patrick Mahomes under center, the last thing that KC wants to do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with the hungry 49ers. Instead they'll look to suffocate this offense and control the clock. Mahomes won't feel nearly as much pressure as his counterpart and should expertly be able to "control" the pace of this one. In our opinion Super Bowl 58 will be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" becomes the savvy call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* Chiefs/Ravens UNDER (BLOCKBUSTER)

Although this game definitely features two of the best QB's on Earth right now, we're expecting this contest to be won in the trenches and by field position. Whichever team establishes the run and looks after the football is going to come out on top. Each offense will be doing its best to limit the time the other unit is on the field, and that means establishing the run game throughout. The Chiefs beat the Fish 26-7 in the Wildcard at home, before holding on for the 27-24 win at Buffalo last weekend. We're anticipating more of a defensive lower-scoring battle like the Chiefs participated in the Wildcard. Baltimore held the Texans to just ten points, and the Chiefs' sub-par offense could be in trouble on the road here as well. In our opinion, this number is indeed high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Bills (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams played in Kansas City back on December 10th and the Bills won a tight and lower-scoring battle by a score of 20-17. Will the Chiefs get their revenge here, or will the Bills take advantage of home field and pull out another win and cover? We're not 100% sure WHO will win and cover in this game, but we're for sure absolutely expecting another lower-scoring battle. Note that KC has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. We're expecting this one to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" is almost always the correct call as far as the total is concerned, and that's the case here in this divisional round matchup; in our estimation, this number is a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Texans/Ravens (DIV. RND TOY)

With nearly 65% of the early public money on the Texans, most everyone here feels that CJ Stroud and company can keep the offensive momentum rolling here vs. this difficult Ravens defense. And why not though, as the Browns had the No. 1 defense in the league and were just torched for 45 points. And for Baltimore, it has had the advantage of having a week off to heal up. We're expecting LaMar Jackson to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. We base our picks on many different things, this particular one sets up really from a "situational" stand point in our opinion. Everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* OVER Eagles/Bucs (BLOCKBUSTER)

Both teams struggled down the stretch of the regular season after great starts. Regardless, here we are and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This playoffs has so far been anything but predictable. The Browns had the best defense in the league and they just gave up 45 points to the Texans, while the Dolphins leds the league in total offense, and only managed 7 points vs. a sub-par Chiefs' defense. And we absolutely believe that the oddsmakers are wrong in this case as well. Philadelphia held Tampa to just 11 points in a low-scoring win here earlier in the year, but note that Tampa has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!"

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10* Browns/Texans UNDER (WILDCARD RND TOY)

They say defense wins championships, and in our estimation the team that plays the best on that side of the field and wins the war in the trenches and the field position battle will be the one that comes out on top. These teams will look to establish the run throughout as to limit the mistakes their QB's can make in this pressure packed situation. The Texans won the AFC South at 10-7, while Cleveland was second in the AFC North. This is the second meeting between the teams in the last three weeks, with the Browns getting the better of the Texans by a score of 36-22 on Christmas Eve. Note though that Houston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. CJ Stroud didn't play in that game and while he'll be back in this one, as stated off the top, we're absolutely expecting each side to try and use the run game to set up the pass. These teams didn't get here because of their explosive offenses and unbelievable QB's. They got here because of their great defensive play. And that's what we're expecting, a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Washington/Michigan (TOW)

We think the time off between games will be detrimental to these offenses, and beneficial to the defenses early on. Note that when these teams met in 2021, the combined to score just 41 points. The Wolverines will be content throughout to let the clock run on offense as they use the run to set up the pass. This Michigan defense just held Alabama to 288 total yards of offnse in the win over the Rose Bowl and we're anticipating Michael Penix Jr. to have a hell of a time in this one as well. Everything points to this total being just a bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Liberty/Oregon (BOWL TOY)

We're expecting very little defense to be played here in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in what sets up to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have somethng to prove. Liberty finished 13-0, capped off by a 49-35 win over New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game. Clearly, the Flames will be out to prove to the nation that they should have been part of the College Football championship. Oregon went 11-2 and lost 34-31 to Washington in the final PAC 12 Championship Game. The Ducks averaged 44.2 PPG, while allowing just 17.3, but with the Flames pushing the pace like we anticipate, despite being such big underdogs, everything definitely points to a high-paced, wide-open "shootout," rather than a grind-it-out defensive affair. Liberty averaged 40.8 PPG, while allowing 22.7 and while these are admittedly two very good defensive teams, we're anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Toledo/Wyoming UNDER (BOWL TOM)

This is the Arizona Bowl and we're anticipating a very defensive affair, and will therefore be hammering the "under" on this one. Wyoming's offense ranks 24th worst, averaging only 324.8 YPG and 26.1 points. But what the Cowboys lack on the offensive end, they more than make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 22.9 points. Toledo is averaging 33.6 PPG, while allowing only 20.6. The Rockets are now faced with a similar tough defensive unit here. DeQuan Finn is a talented QB for the Rockets, but both teams are going to have to deal with several opt-outs and transfters before this game takes place. Look for the longer lay off to throw a "monkey wrench" into each team's offensive rythym and expect these talented defenses to be the "main storylines" in tomorrows summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Jets/Browns (TOW)

This is an important game for both teams. To us, this is a great "situational" play on the "under." New York is 6-9 and hasn't thrown in the towel yet after a 30-28 win over Washington on X-Mas Eve. The 30 points scored is an outlier for sure though, as NY combined for just 14 points over its previous three games. Now on the road in this difficult venue, we can expect a return to form on the offensive end here, which is obviously really terrible. Cleveland is 10-5 and getting unreal play from veteran Joe Flacco, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, soring 87 points in the process, we feel that the "short week" will benefit these defenses a lot more. This number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Ravens/49ers (NON-CONF TOW)

Is this a possible Super Bowl preview here in Prime Time on X-Mas day?! Very possibly! Who knows for sure, but each side enters at 11-3. Each has dealt with injury issues this year and some off-field adversity. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road, while the 49ers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. These teams are very evenly matched for the most part, and we feel this line is very sharp. We're going to steer clear of choosing a side, and instead focus on the total. The 49ers just annihilated the Cardinals 45-29 and there's no reason not to think they can't carry over that offensive momentum here. The Ravens have won four straight, which included a 37-31 OT win over NFC West LA Rams just two weeks ago, and we're expecting a similar wide-open offensive battle here on the West Coast on X-Mas day as well; this number is a little low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* UNDER Georgia Tech/UCF.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams are among the best in the nation on the offensive side of the ball, and each is among the worst on the defensive. All of these team's regular season numbers would clearly point to this being a high-scoring affair, and the general betting public would agree, as this O/U line jumped nearly six points from where it opened originally. Now, though, we feel its much TOO high. We liked the "under" on the original line, but now we definitely think this is too many points for these teams to go over. The longer lay-off will prove detrimental to each team's offense and beneficial for the defensive units in our estimation. A LOT of things have to go right for this total to go "over" the number, and we just don't see it happening; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER USF/Cuse (BOWL WINNER)

This is a great situational play. Syracuse is the favorite here, but it's already undergone big changes since ending the regular season, including firing its head coach Nunzio Campanile, who will be replaced by Fran Brown. Both teams finished 6-6, but now Cuse will be using a new man under center for this bowl game in Braden Davis, who played in two games this season and has one pass and rushed the ball twice. That means that running the ball is paramount for the Orange, and they'll be leaning heavily on LeQuint Allen, who had 1,062 rushing yards and nine TD's. USF is led by QB Byrum Brown, who has 3,078 yards passing and a 23:11 TD:INT. The defense catches a break here this week, but expect Brown to be under pressure from the Orange who concede 23.8 PPG and ranked 75th against the pass. Expect the longer lay-off and the changes to the line-ups to help in contributing to the Boca Raton Bowl staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done this year!

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10* UNDER UTSA/Marshall (TOP TOTAL)

UTSA is strong against the run, and Marshall is going to have to be forced to go to the run early and often with QB Cam Fancher out, and redshirt freshman Cole Pennington taking over. He'll be handing the ball to Rasheen Ali, who had over 1,000 yards rushing. Marshall only averages 23 PPG. UTSA averages 31.7, but it'll have its hands full here with this aggressive Herd defense. With each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run throughout on this one like we expect, all signs point to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done!

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10* UNDER Ravens/Jags (SUPER TOTAL)

This total opened at 44, and it's since dropped. But it's not dropped nearly enough in our estimation, as we're expecting a very lower-scoring defensive "war of attrition." Baltimore if 10-3, including 4-1 on the road, while Jacksonville is 8-5, including 2-4 at home. Baltimore has won three straight, while Jacksonville has lost two straight. But after last week's 37-31 OT win over the Rams, we're expecting a more conservative game-plan from the Ravens here on the road. Overall the Ravens average 27.8 PPG, while allowing 16.8. The Jags have a QB issue right now with Trevor Lawrence injured. Backup Joe Flacco looked decent last week, but as we say, the QB situation isn't the greatest right now for the home side. Jacksonville averages 24 PPG, while allowing 22.3. With both teams coming off high-scoring affairs, in our opinion everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle this time around, where field position and taking care of the football will become the deciding factors on who comes out on top; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Chargers/Raiders OVER (AFC TOW)

LA is 5-8 and it's lost its starting QB for the remainder of the year. Last week the Chargers fell 24-7 at home to Denver. Las Vegas is 5-8 and it's coming off a 3-0 home loss to Minnesota last Sunday. LA has lost four of its last five and it's averaged just 7.7 PPG over its last three. Overall though the Chargers average 21.7 PPG. The problem is, the defense is also conceding 21.7 PPG as well. Look for Easton Stick to be given the green light here and to improve upon his numbers from last week vs. Denver, where he finished 13 of 24 for 179 yards. The Raiders are only averaging 15.5 PPG, while allowing 19.9. Last week QB Aidan O'Connel went 21 of 32 for 171 yards. So far he's average 195 yards passing as a starter and has a 4:7 TD:INT. The Raiders though have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten though off a SU/ATS shutout home loss. Yes, these teams are messes, but the overall situation finally points to more of a wide-open offensive affair; this number is indeed a little low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Eagles/Cowboys (NFC EAST TOY)

These two teams are steaming towards the finish line. Philadelphia is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Dallas is 9-3, including 6-0 at home. Dallas has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after last week's 41-35 victory over Seattle. The Cowboys play with revenge as well after a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia back in November, and note that Dallas has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Philadephia's five-game win streak was snapped in last week's listless 42-19 loss at San Francisco, so we just feel that Philly will be extra cautious and we expect it to double down on the defensive end in this difficult road venue. Look for the rematch to be decided by field position and ultimately expect this total to stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Broncos/Chargers (AFC WEST TOM)

Denver is 6-6 now after falling 22-17 at Houston last weekend. Previous to that Denver had won six straight. The Broncos now face divisional opponent LA, which snapped a three game slide with a 6-0 win at new England last time out. That however is very significant to note here as the Chargers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road win in which they shutout their opponent. It's a super important divisional game and we're fully expecting this sense of intense competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Army/Navy (NON-CONF TOM)

This game features two above average defenses, and two offenses which will run, run again, and then run some more! That said, we still feel that this total is ridiculous, as we're anticipating this competitive affair to translate into some offensive production on the field of play, which makes the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Last year Army came from behind to win 17-14 as a 3-point dog. Navy and Army have split the last four games, but we believe that good field position, set up by turnovers, will also help in contributing with this one going "over" the total once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Toledo/Miami Ohio (MAC TOM)

Pretty low total here, and we think it is in fact MUCH too low. Miami Ohio is 10-2 and Toledo is 11-1. These teams played in Week 8 and Toledo won 21-17 as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. a conference opponent. Miami Ohio saw the total go "under" in three straight to end the regular season, which is also significant to note here, as the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Toledo has scored a combined 144 points over its last four games and we're expecting that offensive momentum to get carried over here as well; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

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10* UNDER Hawks/Cowboys (TOW)

Dallas is 8-3 and it's won three in a row, scoring 127 points in that span. Clearly, if Seattle is going to have any chance in this game, then it's going to have to control the ball while on offense so as to limit the amount of time that Dak Prescott and company are on the field of play. We just think that on the short week, we're going to see a more conservative game plan from Dallas as well here as it looks to dictate the tempo. Dallas gets caught looking ahead here as well to its game vs. division rival Philly here the following week, while the visiting side does the same with a rematch vs. the 49ers. Normally high-scoring teams, expect this Thursday night matchup to go the other way; this number is a bit high in our estimation, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Bucs/Colts (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a bit of a shootout here between these non-conference opponents on Sunday afternoon. Tampa has lost five of its last six. This is a big game obviously. It's off the 27-14 road loss at San Francisco. The Colts have won two in a row, including a 10-6 victory over New Enland two weeks ago (note thought that the Colts have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four coming off their bye week.) Both teams are still in the mix for a Wildcard, but each needs to start stringing some wins together. With each pushing the pace like we anticipate and opening things up on the offensive end, look for this total to indeed eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Buffs/Utes (PAC 12 TOW)

Here's a great "situational" play on the "under." Colorado is 4-7 and won't be moving onto a bowl. Last week the Buffs fell 56-14 at WSU and we have a hard time seeing the visitors even matching that pathethic offensive output. Utah is 7-4 and off B2B losses in which it has conceded 77 points. Now back at home, the last time it was here Utah won 55-3 over ASU. Expect another stellar defensive performance from the home side and for the visitors to simply "go through the motions;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Georgia State/ODU (SUN BELT TOY)

This is a huge game for ODU, which is 5-6 so far this season. Georgia State is 6-5, but four straight losses, the Panthers will be eager to return to form here and actually improve their bowl berth with a victory here. This is a great "situational" play, as ODU saved its season in last week's 20-17 win at Georgia Southern, but while the Monarchs have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, note that they've seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row; with each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER Jets/Bills (AFC EAST TOY)

It's a big game for each side, and while both have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, including in their first meeting of the year back in Week 1 when the Jets upset the Bills at home by a score of 22-16 in OT. The Jets are 4-5 and the Bills are 5-5 and there are plenty of implications on the line for each team. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Bills have lost two in a row after last week's 24-22 setback to the Broncos, and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that Buffalo has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. We're expecting a battle here, but one that flies OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch!

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10* Georgia State/LSU UNDER (NON-CONF TOY)

LSU and Jayden Daniels are 7-3. They've seen the total go "over" the number in all ten games. Daniels is brilliant, but now here favored at home in a massive way over lowly 6-4 Georgia State, which became bowl eligible and then immediately lost three straight. No need to overthink this one, as this is a great "situational" play. Georgia State will just be going through the motions here and will be looking to avoid any serious injuries. One game after falling 42-28 to Alabama, LSU bounced back with last week's 52-35 win over Florida, but with Texas A&M up next to close out the season, we believe the home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half; this number is finally a bit TOO high here for the Tigers, so the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Bengals/Ravens (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

The Bengals are 5-4 and the Ravens are 7-3. Cincinnati got caught looking ahead to this one in last week's 30-27 home loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite, snapping a four-game win streak. Baltimore's four-game win streak was also snapped in last week's 33-31 home loss to Cleveland as a six-point favorite. The Bengals play with revenge after a 27-24 loss at home to Baltimore, and note that Cinncy has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent. Expect the short week to also help in contributing to a lower-scoring defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Toledo/Bowling Green.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Toledo is 9-1 and looking to close out the regular season strong before Conference Tournament. BGSU is eligible at 6-4, but it'll also be looking to improve its berth with another win here and a possible upset. BGSU has seen the total go "over" three straight games after its fourth straight win in last week's 49-19 win at Kent State, but note that the Green Falcons have in fact seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Toledo is off a 49-23 win over EMU, but with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, rather than turn it into a shootout, we say that the overall situation, combined with the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* OVER Jets/Raiders (AFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but we're expecting a much faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring outcome than what this O/U line is suggesting. This is a big game for both teams and we expect this to translate into offensive production on the field of play. The Jets had won three straight before last week's 27-6 setback at home to the Chargers, but note that NY has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine off a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog in its previous outing. Las Vegas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-6 win over New York, and we think it can match that offensive out put this week as well. These teams haven't played since 2020, and in that game they combined 59 points. We see a similar final combined score here this time around as well, as the overall situation combined with the numbers/trends do indeed point to the "over" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* OVER Ohio/Buffalo (MAC TOW)

Ohio is 6-3, while Buffalo is 3-6. The Bulls would have to improbably run the table to become eligible. Likely won't happen obviously, but Buffalo won't go down without a fight. Ohio is 6-3, but the Bobcats have bigger aspirations than just becoming "eligible." One week after doing just that, Ohio fell flat in last week's 30-16 home loss to Miami Ohio as a 7.5-point favorite. But that's signficant to note here as the Bobcats have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous game. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER UCLA/Arizona.

The UCLA Bruins are 6-2 and the Arizona Wildcats are 5-3. UCLA is off a 28-16 win over Colorado and it's now seen the total go "under" the number in two straight. The Wildcats are looking to become eligible here, as they're now on the cusp with five wins. They've won two straight and in fact over their last three games their offense has been "firing on all cylinders," posting a combined 112 points over those three outings (going 2-1.) The last time these teams played was last November and Arizona won 34-28, which would have sailed well "over" the posted number in this season's contest, but which stayed well below the total of 77.5 in that one last year. But that was then and this is now and when you add up all of the situational factors listed above, and taking into account all of the lower-scoring games these teams have been involved in of late, then this important Week 10 total is now for sure a little low; the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Kent State/Akron.

Both teams are terrible. Both enter at 1-7. There's nothing to play for here, not even the role of "spoiler" etc. This is a really low total, because these teams have been consistently inconsistent on the offensive end all season. Kent State only averages 12.5 PPG, but the Flashes are conceding 30.6. On the flip-side, the Zips are conceding a whopping 36.3 PPG. Yes, these offenses have struggled all season, but they won't here. With nothing to play here for but pride, expect this faster-paced and wide-open affair to eclipse this smaller number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* OVER NIU/CMU (MAC TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. This sets up great from a situational stand-point to be a higher-scoring affair, as this is a big game for each 4-4 side. Each team needs two more wins to become eligible for a bowl. NIU is 3-1 ATS on the road, while CMU is 3-0 SU at home. Let's steer clear of the side, and note that the Chips have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row (which is the case.) This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Raiders/Lions (ASSASSIN)

We're expecting a very tight and lower-scoring defensive battle here. Detroit for the most part has looked great this year, but its two losses were really suspect. Clearly the Lions can't be feeling great about their 38-6 loss at Baltimore last weekend, but they ran into the league's No. 1 defense on the road and just weren't able to get anything going. Regardless, now back at home I'm expecting Detroit and Las Vegas to play to more of a "war of attrition" here. The Raiders are off the 30-12 loss at Chicago and we expect them to have difficulty moving the ball on the road consistently once again; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Chiefs/Broncos (AFC WEST TOY)

Here is a great situational play on the total. These teams just played two weeks ago and the Chiefs pulled away for the awkward 19-8 victory as 10.5-point favorites. KC has won six straight, but it's also seen the total go "under" the number in six straight. And why is that important?! Because note that KC has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. And note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Denver comes in off a season-saving 19-17 win over Green Bay here last weekend and if it can somehow pull off an upset here, it'll still be in contention before heading into its bye week. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats does indeed make the "over" the correct call in this one and qualifies as our one and only 10* AFC WEST TOY!

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10* O/U ASSASSIN FSU/Wake OVER.

We have an interesting matchup here with Florida State now 7-0 after its 38-20 home win over Duke last week it was a 13.5 point favorite in that one. It's a 20-point favorite here on the road in this one. The total blasted past the posted number of 49 in that one and this game at Wake Forest is a bit higher the over/under number but it's still not nearly high enough in our estimation. Clearly, the Seminoles are in the driver's seat moving forward, as they have very winnable matchups throughout the rest of their regular season. They should in fact be favored in every game they play in now moving forward. We say for sure that FSU can keep the offensive momentum rolling here against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 4-3. They're 12th in the ACC and they're off the 21-17 upset home win over Pittsburgh. They still have a shot at a bowl game and they obviously won't be rolling over here. Wake has now played to five straight "unders" in a row after its most recent win, but note that the Deacons have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. When you add together the situational factors and the above listed  trend, everything points to this big ACC matchup at high noon on Saturday flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER FAU/Charlotte (AAC TOW)

We have a really low total here. A little TOO low now in our estimation. FAU is 3-4, while Charlotte is 2-5. FAU has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four, including it its most recent 36-10 home loss to UTSA. Charlotte on the other hand has now seen the total go "under" in four straight after its most recent 10-7 win at East Carolina as a six-point dog. Previous to that the 49ers loss 14-0 at home to Navy. FAU won this game by a score of 43-13 last year, and we're expecting a similar final combined score here as well. FAU QB Daniel Richardson had 142 passing yards but made several mistakes in the loss to UTSA, but clearly catches a break here facing the 49ers. Charlotte hasn't been terrible defesively, but with each team desperate for a victory here and pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this O/U line finally being a bit TOO low; the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* Syracuse/VT OVER (ACC TOY)

Some pundits may believe that this will be a very low-scoring defensive battle, but we sure don't! These are two hungry teams looking for an outright victory here and we're expecting this extreme-sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play today. Syracuse Syracuse is 4-3, while Virginia Tech is 3-4. The Hokies though are 3-1 at home. The Orange come in having lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as VT has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. ALSO, the Orange come in having seen the total go "under" in six straight, and despite their last game staying well under the number in their 41-3 humbling loss at FSU, note that Syracuse has also seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten still after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. These teams haven't played since 2021, but in that contest they combined for a whopping 77 points in the Orange's 41-36 road victory as a 3.5-point dog. We're not expecting that many points this time around, but we're definitely once again expecting a similar high-octane offensive affair, one that blasts past the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER UTEP/Sam Houston State.

These teams are bottom feeders and each has struggled to put points on the board in a consistent manner this season, but we definitely feel this O/U line is much too low in this one. Sam Houston State has nothing to play for here except pride as the Bearkats enter at 0-7 after a tough 33-27 OT home loss to FIU as 5-point favs last weekend. It was the best that Sam Houston has looked offensively and we fully expect that momentum to get carried over here. UTEP is 2-6 after a 28-7 loss to New Mexico State. The Miners have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's signficiant to note here as UTEP has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Here's a great "situational" total on Tuesday night; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* UNDER CSU/UNLV (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. Colorado State has seen the total go "over" in two straight afer its most recent 31-30 home upset of Boise State as a 7.5-point dog. Note though that CSU has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. UNLV has covered in all six games and is 5-1 SU overall. The Runnin Rebels have seen the total go "over" the number in four sraight after a 45-27 win at Nevada last time out, but note that the Rebels have still seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. UNLV's only loss was a 35-7 setback to Michigan. The Rebels can become bowl eligibile with a win here. We don't see UNLV's defense giving the Rams' any hope and believe they home side will just look to control this one without sustaining significant injuries. In our opinion, all of this will add up to a lower-scoring defensive battle in the end; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Rice/Tulsa (ACC TOY)

It's a big game, as each team comes into this one at 3-3 overall and 1-1 in league play. We're expecting a very competitive (as are the bookmakers with a spread like this!), and because of that, we're going to focus on the total and we're definitely expecting more of a defensive affair than what this larger O/U line is suggesting. The Owls are 4-2 ATS and they've seen the total go "over" the number in four of six this season. QB JT Daniels has 1,831 passing yards, 15 TDs and five INTs. The Owls have struggled defensively, but we anticipate this game to be won in the trenches and by field position this time around. Tulsa brought in all new coaching staff this year and so far so good. Tulsa has gotten the job done with tough defensive play and by running the all, as four of six games have gone "under" the number. If this one was at Rice, we'd likely be leaning to a higher-scoring game, but as it is, all signs in our opinion point to this one being a defensive battle until the end; the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* OVER FIU/Sam Houston State.

Time is running out for 3-4 Florida International to become "eligible," but here's a great opportunity to move one step closer to that possibility. Sam Houston State enters 0-6, just looking for something positive and to finally "get off the schneid." Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency this year and each has been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but those facts have only helped in driving this particular total now a few points lower than it normally would/should be. We have to very motivated sides, and we're expecting that sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play on Wednesday night. The Panthers average 28 PPG in their victories so far. The Bearkats have nothing to lose here, except another game. They have just nine offensive TD's this season, but here's a greart opponend for QB Keegan Shoemaker to finally have a break out performance against. Last week he was 32 of 48 for 278 yards and two TD's in the lost to New Mexico State. In our opinion, everything point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Giants/Bills OVER (NON-CONF TOY)

The Bills are now 3-2 after falling 25-20 to Jacksonville in London last week. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The Giants are just 1-4, and another loss here will essentially be the final nail in the coffin for their 2023/24 campaign. Note that NY though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Both teams are coming off losses, and each can't wait for the other to make the first mistake. With each side pushing the pace throughout like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER Cal/Utah (PAC 12 TOM)

Cal is 3-3 and coming off a 52-40 shootout home loss to Oregon State on Saturday. Cal's offense looked decent, but the defense looked terrible. So that's good news for the 4-1 Utes, who come out of their bye off their first loss in a 21-7 setback at Oregon State (note though that Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to a TD or less.) Utah hasn't announced yet if star QB Cam Rising will finally be under center, but whether he is or not we can fully expect this explosive Cal offense to run the ball early and often behind Isaiah Ifanse. But the Golden Bears' defense, especially the secondary is completely atrocious. No matter which way you cut it, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Packers/Raiders (BLOODBATH)

We're expecting a really defensive affair here. The Packers looked horrible in their loss to the Lions last week, especially offensively getting outgained 401-230. QB Jordan Love is struggling, ranked 34th in the league in completion percentage. The run game is still suffering without Aaron Jones, who may be back, but regardless, Green Bay will have to establish the run throughout here to alleviate the pressure off its struggling young pivot. Las Vegas should have Jimmy G back under center, but he'll be more of a "game manager" here. Look for Josh Jacobs to finally get involved more for LV as well this week; when you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER San Jose State/Boise State.

Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here on Saturday night, and in our opinion, we're going to see a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Boise State is 2-3 and San Jose State is 1-4. The Spartans have lost five straight road games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been decent with 1,066 yards passing, six TD's and two INT's. The defense is allowing 33.4 PPG. Boise State concedes 31.6. It's QB Taylen Green has 938 passing yards and a 4:4 TD:INT. The ground game though is the strength of the Broncos by averaging 165.8 YPG. Boise State will look to run this ball, and then run it some more to control the pace of this contest. San Jose State has had a difficult schedule, but this is a tough matchup once again for it and we expect it to once again have difficulties moving the ball. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER UNT/Navy (AAC TOM)

For a number of different reasons we believe this number is way too high. UNT is 2-2, while Navy is 1-3. The Mean Green though have seen the total go "over" the number in all four games this year. That fact has only helped in driving this particular total here in Week 6 a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Navhy has seen its last two games fly "over" the number as well (both losses.) Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here and we're fully expecting this to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. These teams haven't played against each other since 2007, so there's no recent comparisons to make in that department, but from a "situational" stand point, this one sets up beautifully to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This game is going to be decided in the trenches, and by field position; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Nebraska/Illinois (BIG TEN TOY)

Two struggling Big Ten teams collide on Friday night. The Huskers are 2-3 straight up and 2-3 against the spread as well and they're also 0-2 straight up on the road. Illinois is 2-3 as well, but it's 2-1 at home. What does definitley stand out here though is that the Illini are so far 0-5 against the spread to open the year. Nebraska is going back and forth with its quarterbacks, but it looks like Henrich Haarberg has emerged as their No. 1 guy over Jeff Simms. Haarberg has only completed 54 percent of his passes, but he's the teams best rusher. Illinois is led by Luke Altmyer, who has looked bad of late. He looked banged up in last week's 44-19 loss to Purdue. The Illini passing game is in the bottom half of nation in EPA/pass and so far he has a negative touchdown to interception ratio. We love standing in front of trains and predicting when a lop-sided streak, either good or bad, will come to an end but we're going to steer clear of a side in this one on Friday night between these two struggling teams and instead focus on the tota; and we're going with the "under" here. Both of these offenses are in really bad shape right now. Nebraska is so far limiting opponents to less than five yards per play (which is 25th in the country.) In what should be an evenly matched "WAR OF ATTRITION," the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Jacksonville State/MTSU.

MTSU is 1-4, and Jacksonville State is 4-1. So why are the Blue Raiders favored here today? Because they've played the much more difficult schedule. They're also in dire need of some victories now that conference play is in full swing if they have any hope of a Bowl berth. Jacksonville State is off the 35-28 win over Sam Houston State, and we expect the Gamecocks to keep that offensive momentum rolling here. With MTSU pushing the pace of this one like we anticipate, this great situational play will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* UNDER Hawks/Giants (TOW)

This total has been bet up since the opening number, and we now feel its too high. We liked the opening number as well to go under the number. Either way, we're not expecting a shootout here, but instead we expect this game to be won in the trenches, and with field position, similar to what we saw on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Jets. Seattle is unbelievably 5-0 in this building, but after playing to B2B "overs," and with their bye week up next, we're expecting the Hawks to have their hands full here with this hungry home side looking to avoid falling to 1-3. With each team committed to establishing the run like we predict, we're indeed expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle here on Monday night; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Rams/Bengals (BLOCKBUSTER)

Two teams in desperate need of a win collide here on Monday night. Non-conference games are usually less intense defensively, but we're not expecting that to be the case here tonight though, as Cincinnati will be risking life and limb to not only win this game (as the Bengals enter 0-2), but to also control the pace throughout. With each side committed to establshing the run while on offense like we envision, all signs point to this one staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Giants/49ers (TOW)

New York was shutout in Week 1 at home by the Cowboys, and then it went into its Week 2 matchup in Arizona down 28-0. The Giants then made the "mother of all half time adjustments" and came out and won the game by a score of 31-28. Working on a short week, and catching a contented 49ers team returning home from a 2-0 road start, we expect the visiting side to put some points on the board and keep that offensive momentum rolling here in San Francisco. This is a huge spread for San Fran to cover, but we're also note sure if NY will in fact be able to keep pace down the stretch. Either way, we do think NY will points on the board as it tries to keep pace with the red hot home side. This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Jags (AFC NON-DIV TOW)

The Chiefs looked shaky in Week 1 without Jason Kelce, and whether he's in the line-up or not, we feel KC will once again have difficulties moving the ball. Trevor Lawrence and company will look to win this game in the trenches and with field position. Weather could be an issue here as well, with Hurricane Lee ripping off the coast right now. We see this one being a really gritty, lower-scoring battle that indeed stays well "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* OVER Vikes/Eagles.

The bottom line here is that Mac Jones threw for 315 yards on the Eagles' secondary, and we just feel that Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will also be able to take advantage here. Clearly the Eagles won't be rolling over here after that somewhat uninspiring performance at New England, which saw them go up early, and then for some reason take the foot off the gas. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this game?! Either way, we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in their home opener. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

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10* UNDER Bills/Jets (ASSASSIN)

It's going to take some time for Aaron Rodgers to develop chemistry with his new team. They'll be looking to run the ball heavily to open things up, to alleviate as much pressure off him as possible. The Jets will be better served keeping Josh Allen off the field of play as much as possible anyways. New York actually had one of the best defenses in the league last year, allowing the fourth least amount of PPG. THe last thing NY wants to do is turn this into a "shootout;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Vanderbilt/Wake (EARLY)

A couple of non-conference opponents battle here and in our opinion, this total is a little high. Vanderbilt is off a 47-13 win over Alabama A&M, while Wake Forest smashed Elon 37-17. Both failed to cover the spread. Let's not overreact to last week's results offensively though is the moral of this story in our opinion. Wake Forest did win 45-25 last year, but with considerable turnover for each side, we're anticipating a much tighter game this time around. This one is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* Florida/Utah UNDER (TOM)

The Utes finished 10-4 last year and they lost in the Rose Bowl. Utah averaged 38.6 points per game while conceding 21.4. The Gators were 6-7 in 2022, and they lost the Las Vegas Bowl. They averaged 29.5 points, while allowing 28.8 per contest. Utah has question marks at QB though, as Cam Rising is still nursing a sore knee suffered in the Rose Bowl, while backup Brandon Rose was hurt in the preseason and he's up in the air as well. Florida's offense will be shaky to start this year as well, but it'll make up for it on the defensive side, which will be tough in the pass rush in this one. A great situational play on the "under!" 

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