Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-21 | Panthers -270 v. Coyotes | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We're being asked to lay a steep price with the Panthers on Friday night in Glendale, but I believe the price could be even higher. Florida is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss against the Blues on Tuesday but should bounce back in this spot. The Coyotes have managed only five wins in 25 games this season and enter this contest on a three-game skid having been outscored by a 16-4 margin along the way. They scored three goals in the first meeting in this series this season yet still managed to lose by two. Florida has been a little shaky on the back-end lately but this is an ideal 'get right' spot against the lowly 'Yotes. Take Florida (5*). |
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12-10-21 | Rangers -155 v. Sabres | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Rangers essentially punted Wednesday's game against Colorado, giving Adam Huska his first start of his NHL career in goal. He not surprisingly struggled and the Blueshirts fell by a 7-3 score. I do expect them to bounce back on Friday as they head to Buffalo to face the struggling Sabres. New York hasn't suffered much of a drop-off in play on the road at all this season, going 9-3-2. While they're without starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they still have Alexandar Georgiev, who has managed to go 4-1-1 this season. The Sabres have of course been a disaster on the blue line and in goal but lately their offense has run dry as well as they've managed just two goals in their last two games and none in their last four periods of hockey. Take New York (7*). |
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12-10-21 | Penguins v. Capitals -128 | 4-2 | Loss | -128 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the Caps in this spot as the Penguins wrap up a long, nearly two-week road trip that took them out west prior to this contest. Pittsburgh is coming off back-to-back wins over the Canucks and Kraken, outscoring those two opponents by a combined score of 10-2. It should find the going much tougher against a Caps squad that has picked up at least a point in six of its last seven games and checks in 9-1-4 at home this season. Washington of course took the first meeting this season by a 6-1 score back in November. It welcomed back a big part of its offense with T.J. Oshie returning two games back. He's seen nearly 37 minutes of action since returning. The Penguins will be without Jake Guentzel due to an upper body injury which is concerning as he had been on a four-game goal-scoring streak, potting seven goals along the way. Take Washington (8*). |
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12-09-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Wild are rolling right now, winners of seven games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup in San Jose. I look for them to keep rolling, noting that the Sharks have just one victory in their last three games and that was essentially gift-wrapped for them thanks to an awful performance from the Flames after they had built a 3-1 lead. Keep in mind, the Wild will have revenge on their minds here after suffering a 4-1 loss on home ice against the Sharks back on November 16th. nNote that San Jose averages a woeful 1.9 goals per game the last 16 times it has played at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. After Tuesday's win in Edmonton, the Wild are now 8-5 on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game along the way. While the Sharks have posted a winning record at home at 6-5 on the season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Predators v. Islanders -105 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Nashville at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders finally got the monkey off their back with a 5-3 win over the Senators on Tuesday night. Now I look for them to pick up their first ever win at UBS Arena on Thursday against Nashville. The Predators are coming off back-to-back wins at home against Montreal and on the road against Detroit. Note that the Preds are still just 6-6 on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. The Isles have little time to waste right now following their long losing streak. Despite their struggles, largely due to a Covid outbreak, I still like the make-up of this team and believe they can dig their way out of the massive hole they've created. But it has to start here, with six of their next seven games coming on home ice. The Preds have been dealing with an illness running through the team as well (not Covid related). Goaltender Juuse Saros and d-man Mattias Ekholm both missed their last game and are questionable to play on Thursday. Take New York (9*). |
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12-09-21 | Ducks v. Blue Jackets -102 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Anaheim at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Lots of support coming in for the Ducks here after Trevor Zegras took over the highlight reel with his insane behind the net flip assist to Sonny Milano in Anaheim's 2-0 win in Buffalo two nights ago. Having collected at least a point in each of the first two games of this road trip, I look for a letdown of sorts for the Ducks here. Columbus is coming off a 5-4 loss in Toronto two nights ago. Keep in mind, the Blue Jackets showed plenty of fight in that contest, rallying back from a 5-1 deficit. They've been a different team on home ice this season where they're 9-3, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals. Meanwhile, despite the win in Buffalo, Anaheim is still just 5-7 on the road this season where it allows 3.7 goals per game. Take Columbus (9*). |
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12-08-21 | Stars v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Knights have quietly gotten healthy but are still looking for consistency as they aim for their first three-game winning streak since early November on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Dallas has ripped off seven straight victories with six of those coming on home ice. The Stars' last two opponents have been punchless as the Blue Jackets and Coyotes combined to score just three goals on a miserable 41 shots on goal. Keep in mind, while the Stars did prevail, in their last two games against opposition with a pulse they've been outshot by a 77-39 combined margin against the Avalanche and Hurricanes. They're likely to face an onslaught here with the Knights having scored 15 goals over their last three games and averaging 3.2 goals per game on home ice this season. By contrast, Dallas averages just 2.4 goals per game on the road, where it has gone 4-6 and been outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals. Dallas has played just three games here in Vegas all-time, only managing a single win with that coming back in the Knights inaugural season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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12-07-21 | Panthers v. Blues +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blues check in having dropped consecutive games while the Panthers have won three games in a row. Keep in mind, all three of those Panther victories came on home ice. That includes a 4-3 come-from-behind overtime win over St. Louis on Saturday. Now the Cats hit the road, where they're just 3-6 this season, averaging a full goal less than their season scoring average. As for the Blues, they've won four games in a row at home. While they're still likely going to be without starting goaltender Jordan Binnington, backup Ville Husso hasn't really been the problem over the last two games as he's faced a whopping 86 shots. Look for St. Louis to tighten things up defensively here, noting that it allows just 2.5 goals per game one home ice this season. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored, but we'll grab the insurance goal since it's being offered. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (6*). |
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12-05-21 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -148 | 3-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Chicago at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. It may not appear to be the case as they remain on a 10-game losing streak, but the Islanders have made some progress, collecting a point in each of their last two games - both overtime losses against the Sharks and Red Wings. We won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Isles here as they continue to search for their first win at brand-new UBS Arena. The Blackhawks are in a tough spot here, playing their third road game in four nights off a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last night. They already dropped a 4-1 decision at home against the Isles earlier this season. While the 'Hawks have been playing better lately, they're still just 3-9 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals. Take New York (6*). |
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12-04-21 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -110 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs are rolling right now, winners of five games in a row and 10 of their last 11 overall. I think they'll meet their match on Saturday, however. The Wild are red hot as well, having also won five games in a row. They can wrap up a perfect 5-0 homestand with a victory on Saturday night. Note that the Wild have gone 9-2 here on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals. The Leafs are 7-3 on the road but average just 3.3 goals per game away from home compared to Minnesota's 4.6 goals per game on home ice. Here, we'll note that the Leafs are a woeful 11-25 in their last 36 games after winning five or more games in a row, as is the case here, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. The Leafs have taken the last two matchups between these two teams in Minnesota but the most recent came back in December 2019. Prior to those two games the Wild had taken five straight home meetings against Toronto. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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12-04-21 | Islanders -135 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Islanders in Thursday's tough 2-1 overtime loss to the surging Sharks. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Saturday, however, as the Isles hit the road looking to pick up a crucial two points against the red hot Wings. New York has now dropped nine straight games, influenced largely by Covid-related absences. The Isles are as healthy as they've been in quite some time now though, and picking up a point in Thursday's overtime loss could certainly be viewed as a positive. Saturday's game opens a stretch of three in a row against likely non-playoff teams, so they'll need to take full advantage. While Detroit has won four games in a row, only one of those wins was a real head-turner and that came in Boston in a game where the Wings were outshot by a 42-16 margin. Here, we find the Wings averaging just 1.8 goals, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals the last 19 times they've played at home off a home win. Under coach Jeff Blashill, the Wings have gone 19-37 when coming off four or five wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Note that the Isles have taken each of the last three meetings in this series by a combined 16-4 margin and have come away victorious in four of their last five trips to Detroit. Take New York (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Sharks v. Islanders -130 | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over San Jose at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Islanders to finally earn their first win in their new building on Thursday as they get back on the ice after a Covid outbreak forced the postponement of a couple of games. For the Isles, they need to start winning now - as head coach Barry Trotz put it, these upcoming games are basically playoff games due to the giant hole they've dug themselves. I like their chances of busting out of their slump here against a Sharks squad that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that San Jose will turn to Adin Hill between the pipes in the front half of this back-to-back spot. Hill has been the weaker of the Sharks two goaltenders so far this season, recording a .897 save percentage compared to James Reimer's .934. Take New York (6*). |
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12-02-21 | Blues v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-21 | Golden Knights -155 v. Ducks | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. While the Ducks were involved in a shootout (win) in Los Angeles last night, the Golden Knights have been idle since Saturday's disappointing 3-2 home loss against the Oilers. Having dominated this series, I look for the Knights to get back on track here. The Ducks season has been interesting so far. They started the campaign by losing seven of their first nine games. Then they reeled off eight straight victories before losing four of their next six contests heading into this one. Vegas already skated to a 5-4 win over Anaheim in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Note that the Ducks are a miserable 5-23 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four goals or more, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knights have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals the last 14 times they've come off a one-goal loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. With Vegas as healthy as it has been all season and Anaheim in a tough back-to-back spot, I'll lay the chalk with the Knights. Take Vegas (7*). |
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11-30-21 | Capitals v. Panthers -133 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark fading the Capitals on Sunday in Carolina as the Hurricanes came out flat only to rally from 2-0 down to tie the game before eventually falling 4-2. I won't hesitate to go back to the well again on Tuesday, however, as Washington continues its road trip against the revenge-minded Panthers in Sunrise. Florida dropped a 4-3 decision in Washington on November 26th. That sets the Panthers up well here, noting that they've gone 19-8 the last 27 times they've been in a revenge spot, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals along the way. Off a stunning 4-1 loss to Seattle on Saturday, it's also worth noting that Florida has gone 9-1 the last 10 times it has come off a game in which it was held to a goal or less, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. The Capitals can match a season-high with a fourth consecutive victory on Tuesday. Note that their previous four-game winning streak included victories over the likes of Buffalo and Detroit. Florida enters this contest trying to avoid a third straight defeat. It did lose four in a row earlier this month but all four of those losses came on the road. The Panthers check into this game sporting an incredible 11-1 home record, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 goals. Take Florida (5*). |
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11-28-21 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Capitals 'fat and happy' off a perfect 2-0 homestand, we'll back the Hurricanes to prevail on Sunday afternoon in Raleigh. The Canes wrapped up a successful 4-2 road trip with a 6-3 win in Philadelphia on Friday. That snapped a two-game skid. Note that the Canes have given up an average of just 1.3 goals the last nine times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Carolina is allowing only 1.7 goals per game on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.9 goals on average. Take Carolina (6*). |
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11-27-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blues -160 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Columbus at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blues suffered a 3-2 overtime loss against an improved Blackhawks squad yesterday afternoon - their second straight defeat after dropping a game in Detroit on Wednesday. The season hasn't gone the way the Blues would have hoped so far but it's still early. The problem is, when you look ahead at their upcoming schedule, things are about to get a lot tougher with their next four games coming against the Lightning and Panthers - two of the league's best teams. Needless to say, St. Louis could certainly use a victory here on Saturday. Note that the Blue Jackets have already confirmed that Joonas Korpisalo will start in goal on Saturday. He represents a considerable downgrade from regular starter Elvis Merzlikins with the Jackets having gone 3-3 in Korpisalo's six starts as he has posted a .894 save percentage. We may see Blues backup Ville Husso as well but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Husso has recorded a .952 save percentage in three games this season with St. Louis winning two of those three contests. Columbus rolls into this contest riding a three-game winning streak - matching their longest of the season. Note that they've allowed 3.7 goals per game on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Blues are giving up just 2.4 goals per game on home ice, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals. Take St. Louis (6*). |
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11-26-21 | Jets v. Wild -124 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Winnipeg at 3:35 pm et on Friday. We've been high on the Wild all season and after snapping their brief losing streak with a shootout win in New Jersey on Wednesday (we were on them in that game as well) we'll back them to add to the Jets misery on Friday. It's been over a week since the Jets last even collected a point. They're struggling mightily right now and a trip to Minnesota doesn't appear to be an ideal spot to break out of their funk. Note that Winnipeg is 0-5 the last five times it has been seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 5+ goals, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in a solid 36-20 after losing two of its last three games over the last 2+ seasons, averaging 3.2 goals and outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-24-21 | Canucks v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in consecutive games for each of these teams heading into Wednesday's clash in Pittsburgh. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Note that the last time these two teams matched up in the Steel City they combined to score a whopping 14 goals. Interestingly, Thatcher Demko started that game for the Canucks two years ago and he's likely to be between the pipes again here. Vancouver has allowed just three goals over its last two games but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, it will be facing a Penguins squad returning home off a successful Canadian road trip and one that's in line for an offensive breakout, noting that Vancouver is allowing 4.1 goals per game on the road this season. On the flip side, the Pens have given up a grand total of just three goals over their last four games - another unsustainable trend in my opinion and we can expect the Canucks to come in with an attacking mentality knowing their penchant for giving up goals on the road. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Flyers +1.5 v. Lightning | 0-4 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning in this same matchup in Philadelphia last week. The Flyers proceeded to lose their next game as well, by a 5-2 score against Boston. Here, I do think Philadelphia is well-positioned to bounce back. Note that the Flyers are 8-1 the last nine times they've come off a home loss by three goals or more, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 2.6 goals. They're also 11-3 in their last 14 games following consecutive losses, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals in that spot. As for the Lightning, they're 9-17 in their last 26 games following an overtime win and oddly enough average only 1.7 goals while being outscored by 1.7 goals on average, winning just once in seven tries when coming off consecutive games where eight or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons. The Bolts were already without Nikita Kucherov but now they're missing Brayden Point as well. Finally, it's worth noting that Tampa Bay is just a .500 team at home this season, going 5-5 while being outscored by a narrow margin of 0.1 goals on average. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup between these two teams in Winnipeg stayed 'under' seven total goals. We're able to play this one at a 5.5 largely due to the fact that the Penguins have seen two of their last three games total three goals or less while the Jets are coming off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is 21-10 when the Pens come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 16 times they've come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Capitals v. Sharks OVER 6 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Caps in their last game - a 2-0 victory in Los Angeles on Wednesday. They've managed to collect three of a possible four points in the first two games of their western road trip, with each of their last two contests staying 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in San Jose. This has been a high-scoring series with the last four meetings going back to the start of 2019 totaling 13, 6, 7 and 9 total goals. Here, we'll also note that the 'over' is 17-4 the last 21 times the Caps have come off a game that totaled three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As for the Sharks, they've seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 23 times they've come off three losses in their last four games. I'll also point out that this could be an Adin Hill game in goal for San Jose after James Reimer started the last two games. That's notable as Hill has posted a less than impressive .894 save percentage this season with the 'over' cashing in five of his eight starts. Take the over (9*). |
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11-19-21 | Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -191 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Kraken are reeling right now, losers of five games in a row with the last four coming by at least two goals. While it flies in the face of common sense, I believe they're well-positioned to take the Avalanche down to the wire at the very least on Friday. Note that Colorado checks in just 2-6 in its last eight road games when coming off a road victory in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. The Avs are also just 4-8 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games going back to last season, outscored by 0.1 goal on average in that situation. The Kraken should have no trouble getting up for this one and I like their chances against the MacKinnon-less Avs on Friday. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-19-21 | Jets +100 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets might look like they're in a tough spot here as they play the second of back-to-back games after a shootout loss in Edmonton last night. I actually like their chances of bouncing back, however, noting that they've gone 11-1 in their lat 12 games following an OT/SO loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Of course, Winnipeg has proven to be a resilient team in recent years, going 22-11 in its last 33 games following a road loss of any kind over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Canucks are playing as bad as any team in the league right now as far as I'm concerned and you have to figure head coach Travis Green's days behind the bench are numbered at this point. They'll be in better position to snap their losing skid when they host the Blackhawks on Sunday. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Stars v. Wild -126 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Stars last Saturday against the Flyers before losing with the 'under' in their most recent contest - a 5-2 win over the reeling Red Wings two nights ago. Keep in mind, both of those Dallas victories came at home. The Stars have struggled on the road, going 3-5 while being outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals. The Wild are coming off a home loss to the Sharks and have now dropped two of their last three games overall. That's worth noting as they've gone 34-19 when coming off two losses in their last three contests over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Better still, they're 19-7 in their last 26 games following a home loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average. As for the Stars, they're a woeful 1-10 in their last 11 road games following a win, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also winless in their last seven tries when heading out on the road after playing consecutive home games, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. The Wild have taken each of the last three meetings in this series and the last time they faced Thursday's likely starting goaltender for Dallas, Anton Khudobin, they skated to a 7-0 victory here on home ice. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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11-18-21 | Lightning -128 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have quietly gotten rolling lately, going 6-2 over their last eight games with the only two losses coming by way of overtime. Here, the Bolts will head to Philadelphia, where they haven't dropped a game since January of 2017. The Flyers are coming off an overtime win over the Flames two nights ago. That's worth noting as they've given up an average of 5.4 goals and have been outscored by 2.9 goals on average the last eight times they've come off an overtime victory. In fact, the Flyers are 9-22 when coming off a win going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Worse still, they've gone a woeful 3-14 the last 17 times they've come off a one-goal victory, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. The Lightning have been an excellent positive momentum team in similar situations to the one they're in tonight, noting that they're 10-1 the last 11 times they've come off consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Capitals -105 v. Kings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Capitals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end against the red hot Ducks in Anaheim last night. Credit Washington for at least stealing a point in that game, losing the game in overtime. Here, I like the Caps to bounce right back as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Kings. L.A. has somewhat surprisingly posted seven wins in its last eight games. This is a bit of a tough spot, however, as it returns home 'fat and happy' off a successful four-game road trip that took it across two time zones up north. We'll note that the Kings are a woeful 2-13 the last 15 times they've come off four consecutive road games, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The last six times they've returned home off at least four straight road games they've averaged just 1.8 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Kings beat the Capitals, back in March of 2018. The Caps have come away victorious in each of their last two games in Los Angeles. The last time we saw them play here in late 2019 they were priced as a -150 favorite and skated to a 3-1 win. We're dealing with a much cheaper price to support them here and I like their chances of picking up another victory. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken -145 | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the expansion Kraken as they look to snap their four-game losing streak (0-2 on their current homestand) against the suddenly surging Blackhawks. While Chicago enters this game off three consecutive wins, it's worth noting that all three of those victories came on home ice. The Blackhawks check in winless on the road this season, having gone 0-6 while being outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals in those six contests. By contrast, the Kraken have posted three of their four wins here at Climate Pledge Arena this season, outscoring opponents by 0.2 goals on average in their seven home games to date. With much tougher games against Colorado, Washington and Carolina lying ahead on their current homestand, look for the Kraken to make the most of this winnable game on Wednesday. Take Seattle (6*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. With confirmation that Elvis Merzlikins will start for the Blue Jackets on Monday, we'll back them at a short price against the upstart Red Wings. Merzlikins' presence between the pipes is key as the Jackets have won five of his seven starts this season and he's posted a solid .929 save percentage. Backup Joonas Korpisalo on the other hand has gone 2-3 with an .897 save percentage. The Red Wings are admittedly playing well, winners of four of their last five games. They already defeated Columbus once this season by a 4-1 score in Detroit back on October 19th. Here, we'll note, however, that the Wings average just 1.6 goals and have been outscored by 1.1 goals on average the last 12 times they've played on the road off a home win against a division opponents, as is the case here. The Jackets, meanwhile, average 3.6 goals and outscore opponents by 0.4 goals on average the last 16 times they've played at home off a home loss against a division opponent. Take Columbus (6*). |
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11-14-21 | Canucks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Ducks are coming off a seven-goal explosion against Seattle on Thursday, which came on the heels of a 3-2 win over the same Canucks they'll face again on Sunday. Note that you would have to go back three meetings here in Anaheim to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than three goals. Here, we'll note that the Ducks have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by two goals or more going back to last season with that situation totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is 13-4 the last 17 times Anaheim has played at home after putting up four goals or more in their last game, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. As for the Canucks, the 'under' is a long-term winner at 74-58 with them playing on the road looking for revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, with that situation leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. Also note that the Canucks average just 2.2 goals when coming off a game that totaled eight goals or more going back to last season (16-game sample size). Jaro Halak may get the start in goal for Vancouver tonight but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he has arguably been better than regular starter Thatcher Demko, who started last night's 7-4 loss in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have exceeded admittedly low expectations between the pipes in Anaheim this season. Take the under (6*). |
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11-13-21 | Flyers v. Stars -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars are reeling right now, losers of two in a row and four of their last six games overall. I do think they're well-positioned to get back on track on Saturday, however, as they host the Flyers, who are in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot after an upset win in Carolina last night. Note that Philadelphia is just 3-12 in its last 15 games following a win over a division opponent, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. They're 0-9 in their last nine games off a road win by one goal, outscored by a whopping average of 3.9 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Stars are a long-term winner at 116-57 when coming off a loss against a division opponent by two goals or more, averaging 3.2 goals and outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. You would have to go back five meetings here in Dallas - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time the Flyers won a game on the road against the Stars. Take Dallas (7*). |
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11-12-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes have been a mess this season. They enter Friday's game off another lopsided loss - this one coming in a nationally-televised game against the Wild (we won with the 'over' in that game). I do expect them to put up a fight against the Blackhawks on Friday, however. I don't believe the Coyotes are as bad as they've looked so far this season. Here, we'll note that Arizona has allowed just 1.6 goals on average the last 13 times it has come off consecutive games in which it allowed four goals or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. On the flip side, the Blackhawks check in giving up 3.5 goals on average after holding consecutive opponents to two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons. Arizona is also a solid 8-2 the last 10 times it has played on the road off a home loss, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are a woeful 5-14 in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three contests, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Blackhawks defeated the Coyotes by two goals or more. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (6*). |
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11-12-21 | Capitals -125 v. Blue Jackets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jackets are rolling along right now, riding a season-long three-game winning streak. However, they haven't played since last Saturday. I'm not sure an extended layoff was what they wanted after such a solid stretch of hockey. Here, we'll note that the Jackets have averaged just 1.8 goals and been outscored by 0.6 goals on average the last nine times they've played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here. Now they welcome the Capitals to Columbus on Friday night, noting that Washington has posted back-to-back victories following a three-game slide. Last night's narrow 2-0 win in Detroit was somewhat misleading as the Caps dominated that game, allowing only 21 shots on goal in the shutout victory. I like the way they're set up here as they'll face Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo (Columbus plays again at home against the Rangers tomorrow night). Korpisalo has performed reasonably well this season but there is certainly a gap between he and number one goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who has recorded a stellar .940 save percentage this season, leading the Jackets to five wins in his six starts. By contrast, Columbus has only managed to split Korpisalo's four starts to date. After winning consecutive games the Blue Jackets have been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals in their next contest over the last 2+ seasons (24-game sample size), as is the case here. Take Washington (5*). |
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11-11-21 | Islanders v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Islanders collapsed in the third period in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Wild (we won with Minnesota in that game). If you know the Islanders and their style of play under head coach Barry Trotz, you know that they'll be determined to tighten things up in advance of Thursday's game against the Devils. Keep in mind, they last time they allowed five goals in a game this season, they followed that up with a 4-1 win in Chicago. This game sets up similarly. Here, the Devils check in off consecutive wins including a wild 7-3 victory over the Panthers (who were in a tough back-to-back spot with their backup goaltender forced to start both games) on Tuesday night. That sets New Jersey up in a spot here where it has gone 0-10 the last 10 times it has come off consecutive wins, averaging just 1.8 goals in that situation. Ordinarily, the Devils have a tendency to give up a lot of goals in that situation - an average of 4.4 to be exact. However, I'm not sure the Isles are well-positioned to take advantage offensively here. New York has averaged just 1.8 goals itself when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more going back to last season (11-game sample size). The 'under' is 23-9 with the Isles coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. You would have to go all the way back to January of 2018 to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than five goals in a game here in Newark. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Last week I talked at length about how the Stars could see their o/u record start to reverse course toward the 'over' after a string of eight consecutive 'under' results to start the season. We saw just that as each of their last three games went 'over' the total. I expect a return to 'normal' as they return home on Wednesday to host the Predators, however. The Preds have posted a 4-8 o/u mark so far this season. Interestingly, if you only consider games where they've followed up at least two days off, the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0. That's the case here as they've been idle since Sunday in Chicago. Here, we'll note that the Stars have posted a 1-10 o/u mark in their last 11 home games when coming off a road loss, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 24-11 the last 35 times they've come off three losses in their last four games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. As for the Preds, they've had a tendency to get involved in tighter, lower-scoring games as road trips wear on, having posted a 6-16 o/u mark when playing on the road off two or more consecutive road games going back to last season. That spot has produced an average total of 5.0 goals and is already a perfect 2-0 to the 'under' on their current road trip. The last two meetings between these two teams in Dallas did go 'over' the total. We haven't seen three straight matchups in Big D between the Preds and Stars go 'over' since back in 2018-2019. Take the under (8*). |
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11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are coming off an inexplicable 5-2 loss to the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Sunday and I think that has a lot of bettors a little spooked to back them as they return home to host the expansion Kraken on Tuesday. We won't shy away, however. You could argue that the Knights essentially 'punted' that game in Detroit, starting backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit in what was a second of back-to-back and three-in-four situation. Prior to that contest Vegas had won consecutive games in Ottawa and Montreal, scoring 10 goals in the process. Despite Sunday's loss, I don't think the Knights will be returning home hanging their heads having won five of their last seven overall. Like most expansion teams, the Kraken have struggled to win games or even stay competitive on the road. They check in 1-6 on the road this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Knights have gone 15-4 when coming off a road loss by three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. They also check in allowing just 2.1 goals on average the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they gave up 5+ goals. While they're still missing a number of key players due to injury, that's certainly been factored into this price. Take Vegas (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Blues most recent game - a 4-1 loss in Anaheim on Sunday night. St. Louis jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first minute of that game but never scored again in a lopsided defeat. The Blues know they'll need to be better offensively if they're going to salvage anything from the finale of this four-game road trip in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. As I've noted before, the 'over' is now 21-12 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 6.7 goals in that spot. While St. Louis is now missing Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug, it recently welcomed back Ryan O'Reilly from Covid protocol. As for the Jets, they were shut out by the Islanders on home ice on Saturday. That sets us up well for a high-scoring affair here, noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Jets have come off a game in which they scored one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. You would have to go back three meetings here in Winnipeg to find the last time a game between these two teams stayed 'under' the total. Also note that the last time Connor Hellebuyck didn't start a game in this series, we saw 12 total goals in a wild 8-4 Jets victory. Hellebuyck is questionable to play on Tuesday as he continues to deal with an illness. Even if he can go, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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11-08-21 | Panthers v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that the starting goaltenders appear locked in for this game I am going to make a small play on the 'under'. Spencer Knight looks like he'll get the call for the Panthers in goal as Sergei Bobrovsky isn't quite ready to return from a lower body injury. I don't mind Knight being in goal here at all, in fact I like it as he has posted a solid .918 save percentage this season and is by all accounts the Panthers goaltender of the future. As for the Rangers, they'll go back to Igor Shesterkin after he gave up six goals in Calgary on Saturday night. Keep in mind, the last time he allowed five goals or more this season (also against the Flames) he followed up that game with a shutout against the Blue Jackets. The Panthers have other injury concerns as well with Sasha Barkov a game-time decision tonight. His impact on the team offensively is obvious. We'll make this play assuming he'll be in the lineup but if he's sidelined again we'll consider it a bonus. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Panthers playing on the road off a home win in which they scored four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. As for the Rangers, the 'under' is 8-1 the last nine times they've played at home after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 5.2 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 12-3 the last 15 times when playing at home after a loss by two goals or more, with an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. Take the under (5*). |
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11-07-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. After an inexplicable seven-game 'over' streak we've seen each of the Ducks last two games stay 'under' the total and I anticipate more of the same as they host the Blues on Sunday night. The Blues are coming off an 'over' result last time out against the Sharks (we won with the 'over' in that game) and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 43-27 when they follow up such a result over the last 2+ seasons. The 'under' is also 37-22 with St. Louis coming off a game in which seven or more total goals were scored over the same stretch, as is the case here. As for the Ducks, the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times they've played at home after a win by two goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 3-1 win over Arizona. While the Blues are expected to get Ryan O'Reilly back in the lineup on Sunday, they're now without Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug. Meanwhile, the Ducks are dealing with possible absences of Jakob Silfverberg and Trevor Zegras. Goaltender John Gibson could miss as well but that's not overly concerning as backup Anthony Stolarz has performed well, posting a .912 save percentage in four games. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Islanders v. Wild -115 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's game riding two-game winning streaks but I believe the Wild are better-positioned to keep their streak going on home ice. New York remains in the midst of a staggering 13-game season-opening road trip and will be playing its third game in four nights on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Isles are a miserable 1-10 the last 11 times they've played on the road off consecutive road wins by two goals or more, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. In fact, the Isles are just 11-28 the last 39 times they've played on the road off consecutive road wins of any margin. As for the Wild, they're coming off a come-from-behind shootout win in Pittsburgh last night. They've gone a perfect 8-0 the last eight times they've come off consecutive games in which they gave up four goals or more, averaging 3.6 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Take Minnesota (9*). |
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11-06-21 | Avalanche -170 v. Blue Jackets | 2-4 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Avs dropped a tough one to the Blue Jackets in overtime last time out. I don't think they would have lost that game were it not for backup goaltender Jonas Johansson being between the pipes. Here, Colorado is expected to get some reinforcements with Mikko Rantanen and Andrei Burakovsky likely to return to the lineup. Note that the Blue Jackets have averaged just 2.0 goals when coming off a road win going back to last season. They also average just 2.2 goals and have been outscored by 0.5 goals on average when coming off consecutive wins over the same stretch. They won back-to-back games only once previously this season and followed that up with a 4-1 loss against the lowly Red Wings in Detroit. Take Colorado (5*). |
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11-06-21 | Lightning v. Senators +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. The Senators are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 5-1 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday. It shouldn't be difficult for them to get back up for this one, however, as they host the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning on Saturday afternoon. While the two teams didn't meet last season due to Covid, the Sens have actually held their own against the mighty Bolts in recent years, going 9-3 in the last 12 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 goal. Here, we'll note that the Sens are 5-1 in their last six home games after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest and a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've played at home off a loss by three goals or more. The Lightning are coming off an overtime loss in Toronto that also saw them lose key defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to a suspension due to a hit to the head of Mitch Marner. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (6*). |
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11-05-21 | Devils v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Kings 'over' in their most recent game against the Blues - a 3-2 shootout victory on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. New Jersey is coming off a low-scoring game of its own - ending a stretch of three straight games that totaled at least six goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 10-3 the last 13 times the Devils have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals in that situation. Better still, the 'over' is 12-3 with the Devils coming off a game that totaled four goals or less going back to last season, producing a total of 6.7 goals on average in that spot. This is a situation where the Devils themselves have fared well offensively, noting that they average an impressive 3.9 goals when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons. As for the Kings, they've held three straight opponents to exactly two goals. I don't believe that level of defensive success is sustainable, especially with Drew Doughty sidelined and a relatively weak goaltending tandem of Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. Speaking of goaltenders, the Devils have leaned on three different ones already this season as they try to tread water until MacKenzie Blackwood can return. While neither of these teams are known for their offensive prowess, I'm expecting plenty of goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes remain winless on the season but after holding each of their last three opponents to three goals or less, and facing a Ducks squad that's 'fat and happy' off consecutive wins by at least two goals, I believe Arizona is well-positioned to at the very least take this one down to the wire on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Coyotes have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Ducks. To find the last time Anaheim defeated Arizona by more than a single goal you would have to go back nine meetings, all the way to January 2020. Here, we'll note that the Ducks are 0-13 when coming off two wins in their last three games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that spot. In fact, they're a miserable 13-36 in their last 49 games when coming off a win, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The last six times Anaheim has played at home off a win by three goals or more it has been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals, averaging just 1.5 goals itself in that spot. The Coyotes have been on the road for a while - this game will wrap up a six-game road trip in which they haven't secured a single point. After a couple of much-needed days off, I think we see the Coyotes come up with their best effort of the season on Friday night. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-04-21 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blues 3-2 shootout loss in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday as they head to San Jose to take on the undermanned Sharks. Note that the 'over' has gone 44-27 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result over the L2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. It's also worth mentioning that the Blues have allowed 3.4 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss over the same stretch (35-game sample size), good for an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. As for the Sharks, they've averaged 3.5 goals with an average total of 6.3 goals when playing at home off a home game where both teams scored three or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Sabres. This series produced some wild, high-scoring affairs last season with four of eight meetings totaling at least seven goals and one of those contests reaching a whopping 13 goals right here in San Jose. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lightning in their most recent game - a 3-2 victory over the Capitals on Monday. We also won with the 'under' in the Leafs 4-0 shutout victory over the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Here, I'll back the 'under' again as Toronto continues its homestand against the surging Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay has won three games in a row, scoring 13 goals in the process. I still feel the Lightning are somewhat depleted offensively this season and the numbers bear it out as they've been held to three runs or less in six of nine games so far this season. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 the last 11 times the Lightning have played on the road off a home win, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. The Leafs have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games and here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-1 in their last 11 home games off a home win by two goals or more over the last season-plus, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. The 'under' is also 12-3 with the Leafs playing at home after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.7 goals. Of course, these two teams haven't met since before the pandemic in early March 2020. That last meeting took place here in Toronto and totaled just three goals in a 2-1 Leafs victory. Take the under (9*). |
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11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Senators most recent game - a 5-4 overtime loss in Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, we also won in their previous game, fading them against the Blackhawks in Monday's 5-1 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens return home to host the Golden Knights. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 loss in Toronto on Tuesday (we cashed a free play on the 'under' in that game). Scoring goals with any sort of consistency has been an issue for the Golden Knights this season, largely due to injuries to three of their top offensive threats in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and most recently William Karlsson. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Golden Knights playing on the road off a game in which they allowed four goals or more going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-8 with the Knights playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. On the flip side, the Senators have seen the 'under' go 10-1 the last 11 times they've played at home after losing four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, with an average total of only 4.7 goals scored in that situation. Reeling off back-to-back losses in which they gave up nine goals in regulation time, I do expect Ottawa to tighten things up here. On the flip side, you would have to go back five meetings to find the lat time the Sens scored more than three goals in a game against Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: We'll downgrade this play with the news that Sidney Crosby will be sidelined due to testing positive for Covid. I'm still on the Penguins in this spot but as a 6* play. We missed with the Penguins in their most recent game as they fell by a 4-2 score in a late collapse against the Devils on home ice. That was of course Sidney Crosby's much-awaited season debut for the Pens. While it didn't go as they had hoped, I do expect them to bounce back against the rival Flyers on Thursday night. Note that Pittsburgh is in an excellent situation here having gone 17-3 the last 20 times it has played at home after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Flyers are fresh off a 3-0 home victory over the still-winless Coyotes on Tuesday. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 9-19 the last 28 times it has come off a win, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Having won here in Pittsburgh by a 2-1 score last April, the Flyers will be looking to notch a second straight win at PPG Paints Arena. They haven't accomplished that feat since winning here in December 2018 and March 2019. I expect the Pens to avoid the same fate here. Take Pittsburgh (6*). |
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11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. When we last saw these two teams square off they combined to score just three goals with the Blues contributing all of the offense in a 3-0 shutout win. Keep in mind, that was in the back half of a two-game set in St. Louis. Here, I look for the Kings to put up more of a fight and expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the Blues are coming off a 1-0 win over the Blackhawks on Saturday. That actually sets us up well for an 'over' result here, noting that the 'over' has gone 23-11 when the Blues come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Better still, the 'over' is 8-1 over that same stretch when St. Louis comes off a game that totaled three goals or less, leading to an average total of 8.0 goals. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here but they've also allowed 3.0 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games going back to last season. While the Kings have been fairly inconsistent offensively, they haven't been as prone to scoring droughts as they were last season - at least not so far this season - checking in averaging 2.7 goals per game overall with that average jumping to 3.6 goals here at Staples Center. Take the over (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Blackhawks in their 5-1 victory on Monday night. That came against the lowly Senators in a game where they were provided a big emotional lift with the return of Patrick Kane, who came up big with a hat trick. They should find the going a little tougher in a quick rematch against the Canes, who defeated them by a 6-3 score in Carolina last Friday (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blackhawks have played at home after scoring five goals or more in their previous game, with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored in that spot. The Canes are rolling right now, off to a perfect 8-0 start to the season. Here, they'll be heading on the road following a four-game homestand. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times that situation has come up going back to last season, resulting in an average total of only 4.6 goals. I don't see this contest playing out like last Friday's wild, high-scoring affair that saw both teams start their 'backup' goaltenders (Antti Raanta for the Canes and Kevin Lankinen for the Blackhawks). We're likely to see Frederik Andersen (.956 save percentage in seven games this season) and Marc-Andre Fleury (who has allowed just two goals on 67 shots over his last two games) on Wednesday night. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-21 | Senators v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Senators last night as they fell by a 5-1 score in Chicago. They've been giving up goals in bunches lately, allowing a whopping 16 in their last 10 periods of hockey. With that in mind, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in Tuesday's contest as the Sens continue their road trip in Minnesota. The Wild were held to just five goals over the course of a 1-2 road trip. I look for them to bounce back offensively here at home where we've seen them score 12 goals in three games this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wild have come off three consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. The 'over' is also 16-5 the last 21 times Minnesota has played at home off consecutive road losses by two goals or more, good for an average total of 6.5 goals. As for the Sens, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 15-4 clip the last 19 times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, with an average total of 7.2 goals scored in that situation. These two teams last met in 2019. They matched up in Minnesota once in 2018 and then again in 2019 with those two games totaling 10 and 9 goals, respectively. Take the over (8*). |
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11-02-21 | Stars v. Jets -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jets got caught flat-footed against the Sharks on Saturday (we won with the 'under' in that game), perhaps overlooking a San Jose squad that was missing five players due to Covid protocols. Here, I look for the Jets to bounce back as they return home to host the reeling Stars on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off three straight losses, scoring just four goals in the process. Note that the Stars are just 2-11 after scoring a goal or less in their last game going back to last season (they're coming off a 4-1 loss to Ottawa), outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Worse still, Dallas is 0-6 the last six times it has gone on the road after playing two or more consecutive games at home, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets are a somewhat inexplicable 9-1 in their last 10 games following an overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that situation (they lost in overtime against the Sharks on Saturday). I'm more confident in backing them given they're coming off a one-goal loss in general, noting that they've gone 20-7 in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.3 goals along the way. The home team has taken the last four meetings in this series. You would have go to back to December of 2019 to find the last time Dallas skated to a win in Winnipeg. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these struggling teams are coming off high-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday night in Montreal. The Red Wings fell short in Toronto on Saturday night, dropping a 5-4 loss against the Maple Leafs. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last season-plus resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. We've seen Detroit score four goals or more on three previous occasions this season and in all three cases, it followed that performance with an 'under' result. The Canadiens are coming off a 4-2 loss in Anaheim on Sunday. The 'under' is 9-2 with the Habs playing at home off consecutive 'over' results going back to last season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.5 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Senators v. Blackhawks -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks are still looking for their first victory nearly a month into the season and with controversy swirling around the franchise, they're in desperate need of something positive at this point. The good news is, they've been playing a little better. Chicago has been right there in two of its last three games, suffering an overtime loss at home against the Maple Leafs and a 1-0 setback in St. Louis around an ugly performance in Carolina. While this is no time for excuses, there's no denying the 'Hawks have faced an extremely tough schedule to this point. This game against the Senators gives them a good opportunity to get something going with five of their next six games coming on home ice. Ottawa is coming off a win in Dallas on Friday night. I'm not sure being idle for the entire weekend was the best thing for a Sens team that is looking to build some positive momentum having won only three out of seven games so far this season. Note that Ottawa has dropped six straight meetings against Chicago, with its last victory in this series coming way back in 2016. After scoring nine goals in their last two games and coming off an effort that saw them allow just a single goal in Dallas, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Sens here. Note that they've allowed 4.0 goals have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Capitals v. Lightning -140 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Lightning are back on track after a brief lull, coming off consecutive 5-1 thrashings of the Penguins and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 2-2 over their last four games, including a loss to the lowly Red Wings. They are, however, fresh off a shutout win over the Coyotes and I think that takes away a bit of their edge entering this 'revenge' game against the Lightning. Tampa Bay skated to a 2-1 victory in Washington earlier this season. While the Caps did win the last meeting between these two teams here in Tampa, that was nearly two years ago. After a slow start, the Bolts can ill afford to give up any points right now, I like their chances of wrapping up a perfect 2-0 homestand here. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
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10-31-21 | Canadiens v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Anaheim at 4 pm et on Sunday. The Canadiens woes continued yesterday as they fell by a 5-2 score in Los Angeles. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Habs playing on the road after allowing five goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 22-11 with Montreal playing on the road following an 'over' result over the same stretch, producing an average total of 5.1 goals. As for the Ducks, they're on a streak of six consecutive 'over' results. The 'under' is a long-term winner at 104-73 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, as is the case here. I'll also point out that Anaheim averages a miserable 1.1 goals when playing at home after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals (14-game sample size). Take the under (7*). |
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10-31-21 | Coyotes v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Carolina at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Hurricanes 6-3 rout of Chicago on Friday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the reeling Coyotes roll into Carolina. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 with the Canes coming off five or more consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Canes at home off three or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Interestingly, Carolina has come off a game that totaled nine or more goals four times over the last season-plus and in its next contest, it has averaged a woeful 1.3 goals with an average total of only 4.1 goals scored. Arizona has been absolutely dreadful offensively but does come off a game in which it allowed only two goals in a shutout loss against the Capitals. Take the under (9*). |
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10-30-21 | Jets v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and San Jose at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been involved in some high-scoring games this season. In fact, they've already matched up once, right here in San Jose back on October 16th. That game totaled seven goals. Here, I look for a different story to unfold however. Note that the Jets have averaged just 2.0 goals the last 17 times they've played on the road off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 17-7 with the Jets playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-5 with the Sharks coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, producing an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, the 'under' has gone an impressive 35-18 with the Sharks coming off a game in which they gave up four or more goals over the same stretch. While the 'over' did cash in the first matchup between these teams this season, the 'under' has actually cashed in two of their last three meetings here in San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Devils v. Penguins -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Penguins are coming off back-to-back losses on home ice but they're well-positioned to get back in the win column against the Devils on Saturday night. Note that Pittsburgh is an incredible 17-2 when playing at home after giving up three goals or more in in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals on average in that spot. As for the Devils, they're a woeful 2-14 the last 16 times they've come off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Until the Devils get goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes back from injury, I'm considering them a play-against team. With the Penguins having taken eight of the last 11 meetings in this series including four of the last five in Pittsburgh, I'm comfortable laying the chalk with them here. Take Pittsburgh (6*). |
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10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I certainly don't expect a distracted Blackhawks team to clamp down defensively in this one as they check in having yet to win a game in seven tries this season, allowing a whopping 4.3 goals per game along the way. We do find the Hurricanes in a spot where they have been vulnerable recently, however, noting that they've allowed 3.5 goals on average the last six times they've come off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here. On the flip side of that, Carolina averages 4.2 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. The Canes are likely to be up against Blackhawks goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in this one and he's mired in one of the worst stretches of his entire career. Fleury owns an ugly .839 save percentage in four games this season. Those four games have totaled 6, 7, 5 and 9 goals. Carolina, meanwhile, is likely to give Antti Raanta his first start of the season. That's certainly worth pointing out when you consider how well Frederik Andersen has performed, recording a .956 save percentage while taking the net in all six games to date (the 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests). The Blackhawks were a bad team last year as well, but still managed to score 10 goals in four games played here in Carolina (at least two in all four contests). Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-21 | Avalanche -115 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're taking a bit of a leap of faith with the Avalanche here as there's no question the Blues have been the superior team through the first couple of weeks of the season. In fact, St. Louis has already skated to a 5-3 win over Colorado, on the road no less. Apart from that victory, the Blues haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents, however. After the game in Colorado they traveled to Arizona to face a Coyotes team that is still winless on the season. Next came a stop in Las Vegas, where they took on a Golden Knights squad missing two of its best players in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Most recently, the Blues hosted a two-game home set against the Kings, who are expected to be one of the Western Conference's weakest teams. You get the picture. The Avs on the other hand have had no gimmes, perhaps other than a season-opening win over the hapless Blackhawks. Their three previous road games came against the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. They managed to pick up only one victory in those three games and followed that trip with a tough home loss to the Knights two nights ago. Needless to say this is a game the Avs clearly have circled on their calendar (not that I'm a big proponent of backing teams based on motivation alone - every team is motivated). What I will note here is that the Blues are just 8-15 in their last 23 games after scoring 3+ goals in four or more consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, as they average just 2.6 goals in that spot. These two teams have faced each other 16 times since the start of 2020. Only once over that stretch has St. Louis managed to register consecutive wins. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Blues will be without one of their leaders for an indefinite period of time as Ryan O'Reilly is in Covid protocol. Take Colorado (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off fairly high-scoring contests with the Bruins prevailing by a 4-3 score over the Sharks and the Panthers skating to a 5-3 win over the Coyotes. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair when they match up in Sunrise on Wednesday night. The Bruins have actually topped out at four goals in their first four games this season, alternating high and low-scoring games as they check in sporting a 2-2 o/u mark. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Bruins playing on the road off a one-goal win over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.3 goals. The 'under' is also a rock solid 11-3 when the Bruins come off consecutive games in which they scored four or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, good for an average of just 4.9 total goals scored in that spot. On the flip side, the Panthers are in a strong 'under' situation here, noting that the 'under' has gone 64-35 in their last 99 home games after scoring three or more goals in three straight games, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Panthers coming off five or more consecutive wins, producing an average total of 4.9 goals in that spot. The last time these two teams met we saw just three total goals - that game was also played in Florida. Both of tonight's expected starting goaltenders come in playing well with Linus Ullmark doing his best to win the starting job over Jeremy Swayman having posted a .935 save percentage in two games and Sergei Bobrovsky performing as well as he has at any point in his career, sporting a .942 save percentage through four games. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Jets v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' when these two teams met in Winnipeg last week, thanks only to a late flurry of goals from the Jets in what turned out to be a lopsided contest. Here, I'm expecting the Ducks to offer a little more resistance, and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of Winnipeg's last four games and each of Anaheim's last three. Interestingly enough, the last time we saw a Jets 'under' result came right here in Anaheim back in their season-opening 4-1 loss to the Ducks. Here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 the last 12 times the Jets have played on the road after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Ducks have come off three consecutive 'over' results, good for an average total of only 4.5 goals. I'll also point out that the Ducks have given up just 2.6 goals per game the last 11 times they've come off consecutive road losses. We haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series produce more than five total goals since back in January/February of 2019. Take the under (9*). |
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10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Nashville at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams having seen the 'over' cash in their last two games a high total in Tuesday's matchup may appear warranted at first glance. I'm expecting a different story to unfold, however. While it's been a little while since these two teams last faced each other, the two rosters aren't all that different from what we saw when they squared off in games totaling just three and four goals back in November and December of 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last season-plus, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. Likewise, the 'under' has gone 18-7 with the Predators playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Preds returning home off a road win over the same stretch, with an average total of just 3.8 goals scored. We've seen the Preds tighten things up in similar scheduling situations as well, allowing only 2.1 goals on average when playing for the third time in four nights over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that it appears Brian Elliott will be in goal for his Lightning debut on Monday night, we'll step in with a play on the 'over'. Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses but with this being the first game of a back-to-back set (which concludes on Tuesday in Pittsburgh), Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the night off. The Bolts have now been held to three goals or less in three straight games since scoring seven in a victory over Detroit back on October 14th. Here, I believe they're well-positioned to bust out of their offensive slump. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times the Sabres have come off a road loss by one goal, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals when coming off an overtime loss over the last 2+ seasons, a is the case here following its 2-1 OT loss in New Jersey on Saturday. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams produced fewer than seven total goals. The last three times they've met in a game that didn't feature Andrei Vasievskiy between the pipes we saw final scores totaling nine, eight and nine goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. The Islanders haven't met a low-scoring game they didn't like and off another one last night in Arizona (they won 3-0) we'll call for a tightly-contested affair on Sunday night in Las Vegas. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Likewise, the 'under' is 16-5 with the Knights coming off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 5-3 loss to the Oilers. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals scored as well. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-21 | Canucks v. Seattle Kraken -112 | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kraken ran out of gas at the end of their season-opening road trip, dropping consecutive lopsided decisions against the Flyers and Devils in a back-to-back set earlier this week. Here, I look for Seattle to show up and show out in its first game in front of the home faithful at Climate Pledge Arena. The Kraken catch the Canucks in a favorable spot here as Vancouver has gone a woeful 0-7 the last seven times it has come off a road win in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here following Thursday's 4-1 win in Chicago. The Canucks have been outscored by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The 'Nucks are also just 7-24 when coming off three or more consecutive road games, which is the case on Saturday, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals. Take Seattle (6*). |
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10-23-21 | Islanders v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over New York at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Coyotes +1.5 on Thursday and it wasn't close as they fell to the Oilers by a 5-1 score. I do look for them to finally bounce back on Saturday, however, as they host the Islanders. Note that Arizona has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times it has played at home after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. They're also a solid 8-1 the last nine times they've come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. The Isles meanwhile are 2-10 the last 12 times they've played on the road off consecutive road contests, outscored by 1.1 goals on average. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-23-21 | Hurricanes -150 v. Blue Jackets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are playing well out of the gates with the Hurricanes a perfect 3-0 and Columbus right behind them in the Metropolitan Division standings at 3-1. Here, I like the Canes to keep it rolling. Note that Columbus checks in 0-7 the last seven times it has played at home off a division win, as is the case here following Thursday's overtime victory over the Islanders, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. I mentioned overtime, well, the last six times the Jackets have played at home off an overtime win they've averaged a miserable 1.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Canes have gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, going 18-6 the last 24 times they've played on the road off at least two straight road games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Take Carolina (7*). |
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10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers have come flying out of the gates this season, scoring 18 goals through four games (19 officially but one goal was a result of earning a shootout win). I don't believe their offensive surge is sustainable, however. Note that Edmonton averages only 2.5 goals when playing on the road after registering a road win by two goals or more, as is the case here following last night's 5-1 win in Arizona. The 'under' has gone 9-2 in that spot over the last year. Meanwhile, the 'under' checks in 7-1 when the Knights play at home after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same period, resulting in an average total of just 3.7 goals. This has not been a high-scoring series by any means with five of six all-time meetings between these two teams in Vegas staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring games last time out with the Oilers holding on for a 6-5 win over the Ducks and the Coyotes dropping their third straight game to open the season by a 7-4 score against the Blues. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday in Glendale. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-4 with the Oilers playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Also note that the Oilers check in allowing only 2.5 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in their last contest over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Coyotes have given up an average of only 2.3 goals when coming off a home loss by two or more goals over the last 2+ seasons. The situation hasn't come up all that often over the years but when the Coyotes play at home with a total of 6.0 or higher, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-6 clip, good for an average total of just 5.1 goals scored. It's been a while since these teams last met but when they did, the Coyotes skated to a low-scoring 3-0 win here in Glendale back in 2020. In fact, four of the last five meetings in Arizona have totaled five goals or less. Take the under (7*). |
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10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Things haven't gone well for the Coyotes so far this season as they check in 0-3, having been outscored by a wide 17-7 margin. Meanwhile, the Oilers are off to a perfect 3-0 start, having scored a whopping 14 goals. Here, I'll take a flyer on the Coyotes as we're being offered a reasonable price to back them with an insurance goal. Note that Arizona has gone 12-3 and outscored opponents by an impressive margin of 1.4 goals on average when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 2.9 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons and check in allowing 3.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals on average when coming off a home win by four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Oilers defeated the Coyotes by more than a goal here in Glendale - that's going back four meetings in the desert. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-21-21 | Canucks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter Thursday's game struggling with the Canucks off consecutive losses and just 1-3 on the season and the Blackhawks yet to pick up a single win through four games. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Blackhawks coming off a a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals. The 'over' has cashed at an identical 15-6 clip with the Canucks coming off two losses in their last three games over that same stretch, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the Canucks have had a tendency to 'let go of the rope' on long road trips, having given up a whopping 4.5 goals on average after playing three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with a 15-game sample size. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. It's been a while since these two teams have met but three of five matchups since the start of 2019 have totaled at least seven goals and going back further, 10 of their last 12 meetings have reached at least six goals. Take the over (8*). |
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10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're being offered a very reasonable price to back the 'under' in this one, largely due to the fact that the Ducks are coming off a wild 6-5 loss in Edmonton while the Jets have seen their last two contests total seven and nine goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Ducks playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average of only 4.5 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets have posted a 14-26 o/u record, averaging only 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. Interestingly, Winnipeg also averages just 2.4 goals per game when playing at home off an 'over' result over the last 2+ seasons. On a positive note for the Jets, they allow only 2.1 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the same stretch. Take the under (6*). |
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10-21-21 | Capitals -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Devils are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Blackhawks and expansion Kraken. They were dealt a tough blow in Tuesday's victory over Seattle, however, as emerging superstar and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes appeared to suffer a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen whether he can return on Thursday as of the time of writing. Regardless, I look for New Jersey to fall short in its attempt at a third consecutive victory on Thursday night. Note that the Devils are 0-9 the last nine times they've played at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. They're also just 8-23 in their last 29 home games against division opponents, outscored by 0.9 goals on average. As for the Capitals, they've been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average after scoring four or more goals in their last game over the last two-plus seasons, as is the case here off Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Avalanche. The Caps have owned this series in recent years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings over the last three seasons, including a 5-1 mark here in Newark. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Bruins -135 v. Flyers | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. I like the way this one sets up for the B's as they hit the road for the first time this season to face the uneven Flyers. Philadelphia opened its campaign with a shootout loss to the Canucks - a game they really had no business getting a point out of having trailed by two goals with just a couple of minutes remaining. Since then we've seen the 'Nucks go on to lose games against the Red Wings and Sabres. We did see the Flyers bounce back on Monday as they caught the expansion Seattle Kraken in a favorable spot and rolled to a 6-1 victory. Here, they'll turn to backup goaltender Martin Jones against Boston and I'm not convinced they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the B's. Note that Philadelphia checks in 5-13 after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last season-plus, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. In fact, the Flyers are just 7-17 the last 24 times they've come off a win of any kind, outscored by 1.5 goals on average while giving up 4.1 goals per game in that situation. The Bruins have taken four of the last six meetings here in Philadelphia and I like their advantage here with underrated goaltender Jeremy Swayman going up against the aforementioned Jones. Take Boston (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Ducks playing the second of back-to-back games in Alberta and fresh off last night's 3-2 overtime win over the Flames, I'm comfortable laying the extra goal with the Oilers in a favorable spot for the home side on Tuesday night. Note that the Ducks are a miserable 4-21 after a one-goal victory in their most recent game over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that spot. Worse still, Anaheim is 0-12 after winning two of its last three games over the last year, as is the case here, allowing 4.4 goals on average and outscored by an average margin of 2.7 goals in that situation. The Oilers are off to a tremendous start this season, scoring seven goals (they won their first game in a shootout) on a whopping 67 shots on goal. I don't expect them to get complacent in the final game of this three-game homestand, however, noting that they've allowed 85 shots on goal through two games, so there's room for improvement here. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Jets and Wild on Tuesday night in the State of Hockey. The 'under' has actually combined to go a perfect 4-0 in games involving these teams this season but that only helps keep Tuesday's total at a reasonable number. Note that the Jets managed to score three goals despite firing only 23 shots on goal in Saturday's loss in San Jose. In Winnipeg's season-opening 4-1 loss in Anaheim it recorded 34 shots on goal. Here, we find the Jets averaging 3.3 goals per game when coming off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons. When playing three or more consecutive road games, they check in averaging 3.5 goals per contest. As for the Wild, the 'over' has gone 17-7 when they come off consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Similarly, the 'over' is 37-22 the last 59 times they've come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, good for an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to pay a fairly steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Panthers here, I believe that price could be even higher. Tampa Bay checks in off consecutive road wins over the Red Wings and Capitals, with both of those victories coming by a single goal. Remember, the Lightning opened the season with a resounding thud in a blowout home loss against the Crosby and Malkin-less Penguins. Now the Bolts will need to go forward without superstar Nikita Kucherov for an indefinite period of time. Here, we find Tampa Bay having gone 0-5, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals, the last five times it has come off consecutive road wins. The Bolts are also just 23-25 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, holding a minuscule 0.1-goal scoring advantage in that situation. Finally, they're 8-15 when checking in off an overtime win over that same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. As for the Panthers, they're off to a perfect 2-0 start and now find themselves in a situation where they average a solid 3.4 goals per game off a win over the last three seasons. They'll give the start to Spencer Knight in goal on Tuesday and I see that as a positive as I do think he has an opportunity to supplant veteran Sergei Bobrovsky as the starter at some point this season. Take Florida +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-19-21 | Stars v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars have seen the 'under' cash in all three games so far this season while the Penguins have delivered 'over' results in all three of their games to date - despite playing without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Penguins playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-12 with the Stars having given up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. Pittsburgh's home-opener totaled seven goals but featured only 46 combined shots on goal. The Pens allowed only 20 shots in the game. After giving up a whopping 73 shots on goal in their first two games, the Stars tightened things up allowing only 27 shots in a losing effort in Ottawa on Sunday. Take the under (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With Nathan MacKinnon ready to take the ice for the first time this season, we'll take a flyer on the 'over' as the Avalanche play their first road game of the season in Washington on Tuesday night. I think the Capitals are going to be involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season. Washington's blue-line anchors John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov aren't getting any younger and the Caps are only average between the pipes (Ilya Samsonov is expected to get his first start of the season tonight). In this spot, we'll note that the Caps have posted a 14-3 o/u record when coming off a game where three goals or less were scored over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here following Saturday's 2-1 home loss to the Lightning. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. Also note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the Capitals coming off consecutive home games, a spot in which they've averaged 3.6 goals with those games totaling an average of 6.7 goals over the last 2+ seasons. Even without MacKinnon on the ice, the Avs have scored seven goals through two games this season. They average a whopping 4.3 goals per game when coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons. Take the over (5*). |
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10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Coyotes v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis brief with puck drop going shortly in Buffalo. Arizona will give Karel Vejmelka his first NHL start in goal while the Sabres go with Dustin Tokarski. Of course, the Yotes were involved in a wild 8-2 loss in Columbus two nights ago while Buffalo rolled to a blowout win over the Habs. Expect plenty of goals in this one as well, even with both teams fairly short on scoring depth up front. Take the over (5*). |
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10-15-21 | Canucks v. Flyers -145 | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Friday. There will be spots to fade the Flyers early in this season but I firmly believe those will come in situations where backup goaltender Martin Jones gets the call between the pipes. Here in their home opener, we can expect Carter Hart in goal, noting that he's looking to bounce back from an inexplicably awful season and ready to build on a strong preseason that saw him start two games, allowing just two goals on 43 shots. I'm high on the Flyers in general. They added to their depth with some savvy moves in the offseason, including adding Cam Atkinson. They also have plenty of young players ready to take another step forward this year, most notably Travis Konecny (he only seems like he's been in the league forever) and Joel Farabee. The Canucks managed to earn a point in a shootout loss to the Oilers two nights ago but their potential lack of scoring punch was evident as they found the back of the net only twice on 38 shots. While I do think Vancouver can be a playoff contender this season, this is a tough six-game season-opening road trip that takes it all over the map. Take Philadelphia (5*). |
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10-14-21 | Stars v. Rangers -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers inexplicably elected to 'punt' last night's season-opener in Washington - more or less - starting backup goaltender Alex Georgiev in a blowout loss. Often times those type of decisions have a trickle-down effect through the rest of the dressing room, and I think that may have been the case last night. They're expected to have Igor Shesterkin back between the pipes for Thursday's home-opener and I'm confident we'll see a much better performance from the Blueshirts. This is the first real test for new head coach Gerard Gallant as he aims to get his players back up on a quick turn-around. I like the matchup here with the Stars coming off a down campaign as they struggled to recapture the lightning in a bottle that led them to a surprising Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2020. Dallas' roster remains relatively unchanged from recent years and I'm not sure that's a positive thing at this point. Take New York (5*). |
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10-14-21 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets -138 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Columbus over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Coyotes have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams this season and while the Blue Jackets are by no means a Stanley Cup contender, I do think they'll be in the hunt for the playoffs and could be better than most are projecting if they can overcome a few key losses. I actually like the make-up of this Jackets squad. Cam Atkinson is gone but he was a general disappointment last season. Seth Jones has also moved on but he already had one foot out the door all of last season. Gone is the distraction of former head coach John Tortorella and his feuds with players. It feels like a fresh start for the Jackets and I expect them to get off to a strong start. The Coyotes have gone through some changes, most notably dealing one of their best offensive threats in Conor Garland to Vancouver. This is a team that really lacks an identity at this point and I expect them to be in tough opening the campaign on the road, where Columbus has traditionally found plenty of success. Take Columbus (10*). |
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10-13-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Canadiens as they open their season on the road against the rival Maple Leafs. Of course, the big news in Montreal is that goaltender Carey Price has entered into the NHL's Player Assistance Program and will be away from the team for an indefinite period of time. Fortunately for the Canadiens, they have one of the best backup goaltenders in the league in Jake Allen. Allen stepped in for Price for extended stretches last season and performed admirably and I expect more of the same this year. The Habs are of course coming off the bitter disappointment of losing in the Stanley Cup Final against the Golden Knights last summer. There's certainly reason for optimism entering the 2021-22 season. The Habs delivered some good news this week as they locked up emerging superstar Nick Suzuki with an eight-year contract. Toronto will start the season without a star of its own in Auston Matthews. The Leafs are once again brimming with talent and potential but it remains to be seen whether they can put it all together and finally go on a deep postseason run. As is often the case between these two teams, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning -185 | 6-2 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. During the preseason we looked to back the Lightning any time they put forth anything close to resembling their 'A' squad. Yes, they're that good again this season. Little changed from the team that just hoisted Lord Stanley's cup for the second straight year, I'm confident we'll see the Bolts get the 2021-22 season off to a winning start on Tuesday night. The Penguins won't roll over, of course, in fact I do expect them to put forth a gritty effort here even without their two superstars in Geno Malkin and Sidney Crosby - both sidelined due to injuries to start the season. The Pens aren't short on depth but they are a little talent-shy, especially when compared to the Lightning. While we are dealing with a rather lofty price here, I believe it could be even higher. Rather than try to reinvent the wheel here, we'll stick with the Bolts. Take Tampa Bay (5*). |
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10-09-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators -175 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Carolina at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. It looks like the Predators will be going with close to their expected regular season roster on Saturday afternoon for their preseason finale. Meanwhile, the Canes will be sitting the majority of their regulars. The price certainly warrants such a situation, although I feel the number could have been even higher, given how well the Preds have been playing during their exhibition slate to begin with. After opening with consecutive losses to the Panthers we've seen Nashville reel off three straight wins, including a 3-2 victory over these same Canes earlier this week. Carolina is content with what it has seen from its core players, and there aren't a lot of open spots on the roster so I'm not anticipating a peak performance from it here. Take Nashville (5*). |
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10-07-21 | Avalanche v. Stars -120 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. While Dallas is electing to go with a fairly similar lineup to the one we'll likely see in its season-opener next week, Colorado is leaving its stars home for this Thursday night matchup. Not surprisingly, we've seen the price shift with that news, but I still think we're being offered a fair price with a Stars squad that has collected at least a point in four of five preseason games to date. Dallas can certainly enter the regular season with a good feeling should it secure a third straight victory here on Thursday night (the Stars do still have one preseason game remaining on Saturday night in Colorado - we'll likely see their 'B' squad for that contest). The Avs meanwhile have put little stock in the preseason, or so it seems, losing three of their four games. That includes a 7-4 defeat at home against Vegas two nights ago, a game in which Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, among others, played significant minutes. Neither of those players traveled to Dallas for this one. Take Dallas (6*). |
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10-06-21 | Flames v. Jets -130 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The Jets didn't have their 'A' squad for Sunday's game in Vancouver and fell by a 3-2 score. Here, I expect them to ice a stronger lineup and bounce back from consecutive losses against the Flames. Calgary had won two games in a row before falling by a 4-3 score against Edmonton on Monday. The Flames did send a quality lineup to the ice for that rivalry tilt against the Oilers but I wouldn't count on a similar roster here. Note that this is the first of a home-and-home set to close out the preseason for these two western Canadian squads. Take Winnipeg (6*). |
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10-06-21 | Capitals v. Bruins OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll make this play now as the total appears to be on the move, noting that I would still recommend a play at '6'. Both teams sent their 'B' squads to the ice last time out. Here, as the two teams look to bounce back (Washington has lost all four preseason games while Boston has lost its last two). The Caps do still have one more preseason game to go on Friday night at home against Philadelphia before opening the regular season next Wednesday against the Rangers. As for the Bruins, this game will put a wrap on their preseason schedule. I fully expect them to push the pace in this one but the Caps will certainly be along for the ride. Take the over (6*). |
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10-05-21 | Flyers v. Islanders -159 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Islanders lost their last game as a -200 favorite by way of overtime on Saturday night here at home against New Jersey. They're in a more favorable spot here, catching the Flyers playing on the second of back-to-back nights off an overtime win, yet we're being asked to lay a shorter price. All indications are that we'll see New York's 'A' squad for this contest, or as close to that as we can expect at this stage of the preseason. The same isn't likely to be the case for the Flyers, who starter Carter Hart in goal last night (he's been excellent in two preseason games) and had the likes of Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, James Van Riemsdyk - the list goes on - play significant minutes. Take New York (6*). |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -224 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.0 goal over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've focused mostly on totals in this series so far but I'm willing to take a flyer on the Canadiens with an insurance goal on Monday night. This marks the first time this season we've seen the Canadiens lose three consecutive games by two goals or more. Saturday's game essentially got derailed by a couple of early goals allowed and they ended up playing catch-up all night from there. I do expect to see them get off to a better start as they face the prospect of their season ending on Monday night. Note that the Lightning are just 11-14 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 0.1 goals in that situation. Tampa Bay also averages just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road after a game that totaled at least nine goals over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Canadiens check in 6-1 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. They've also outscored opponents by 0.6 goals on average while allowing just 2.3 goals per contest when revenging two losses where their opponent scored at least three goals this season, with that situation coming up 13 times previously. While I certainly don't believe the Habs can come back and win this series, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly, noting that the Lightning have been involved in a number of tight, low-scoring affairs when attempting to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons (that situation has averaged a total of just 4.0 goals with Tampa Bay outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.6 goals, coming up nine times previously). Take Montreal +1.5 goals (9*). |