Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

The Jets enter this matchup off a confidence-boosting win over Houston on Halloween Night, showcasing a defense that has kept them competitive, even amid recent coaching changes. With a renewed focus under interim leadership, the Jets’ defensive unit has continued to shine, setting a solid foundation for the team. Against an Arizona offense that’s performed well lately but benefited from favorable matchups, the Jets’ defense has the edge to stifle big plays and create key stops.

Arizona is on a three-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread but now faces a tougher defensive challenge than recent opponents. New York’s improving offense, meanwhile, gives the Jets the ability to take advantage of Arizona’s vulnerabilities on defense. In a game where the Jets’ balanced approach can shine, New York looks set to cover the spread with a solid all-around performance.

Take the Jets minus the points. Prediction: Jets 23, Cardinals 16.

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Saints enter this game with new leadership following the firing of head coach Dennis Allen after last week’s close loss to Carolina. Coaching changes often bring a jolt of energy, and with New Orleans seeking redemption in a divisional matchup, they’re well-positioned to keep this contest close. While Atlanta’s offense has been fairly explosive, New Orleans has the defensive depth to disrupt key plays and limit big gains. In a matchup where both sides know each other well, the Saints' renewed focus should help them stay competitive.

Atlanta, fresh off a win over Dallas, will be confident but must prepare for an extra-motivated New Orleans squad looking to improve after their early-season two-point loss to the Falcons. Even with the Falcons’ offensive firepower, divisional games tend to tighten up, and the Saints should capitalize on any defensive opportunities to keep it close.

Take New Orleans plus the points. Prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 23.

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Colts, though coming off back-to-back losses, have the experience of veteran Joe Flacco under center, which could bring stability and playmaking ability against a talented Bills defense. Despite Buffalo’s recent four-game winning streak, the Bills failed to cover the spread last week in a narrow three-point win over Miami. The loss of rookie WR Keon Coleman due to a wrist injury leaves a noticeable gap in Buffalo’s offensive depth, which could affect their ability to stretch the field. While Indianapolis also lost Michael Pittman to injury, his lack of production this season means his absence may not be as significant.

With Flacco leading the offense, Indianapolis should be able to remain competitive, especially with Buffalo’s offensive depth potentially compromised. The Colts' defense has shown the ability to keep games close, and home-field advantage could play a role here in allowing them to stay within the spread.

Take Indianapolis. Prediction: Bills 23, Colts 21.

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Bears off last Sunday's heart-breaking loss in Washington. Chicago has yet to notch a road victory this season but it's been right there in all three previous tilts away from home. I think we learned a lot about the Bears in last Sunday's near-miss - mostly positive. The Cardinals rallied for a win in Miami last week, taking advantage of a listless Dolphins defense. The Arizona offense has been good in fits and starts with Kyler Murray making a ton of plays with his legs to keep the chains moving. I'm not sold on him doing it against an elite Bears defense on Sunday, however. I see this as a game where Murray gets outshined by rookie Caleb Williams and the Bears finally get their road victory. Take Chicago (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As far as losses go, I think the Raiders narrow defeat at the hands of the division-rival Chiefs last Sunday was a galvanizing one. Las Vegas was finally able to move the football a little bit with Gardner Minshew under center and I think it is well-positioned to build on that performance against a down-trodden Bengals squad on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The Bengals are saying all the right things, indicating that they believe they can still salvage a season that is clearly spiralling down the drain following last week's blowout loss against Philadelphia. I simply feel they're going to have an incredibly difficult time getting up for the visiting Raiders. Las Vegas can play some defense while its offense should welcome the opportunity to face an opponent that has rarely been able to get a hand on opposing quarterbacks. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Raiders in a game that I project to go down to the wire. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Last Sunday's trip to Santa Clara was always going to be a difficult one for the Cowboys. They fell short, turning this into a virtual must-win game against the Falcons in Atlanta. I like the way it sets up with the Falcons coming off another win over the Buccaneers. Severely short-handed on offense, Tampa Bay was unable to keep up with Atlanta, noting that Kirk Cousins has turned in his best two games of the season in that particular matchup. While Dallas continues to struggle defensively and sorely misses the presence of Micah Parsons among others, I think this is a spot where the Cowboys can rise up and have their offense lead them to a victory. There's nothing overly intimidating about the Falcons defense. Even the listless Panthers managed to hang 20 points on them a few weeks ago. Dallas' schedule isn't going to get any easier with matchups against the Eagles, Texans and Commanders in succession up next. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I haven't been overly impressed by what I've seen from the Chargers so far this season. Their four wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and Saints and they haven't managed to string together consecutive victories since Weeks 1 and 2. I think they're walking into a hornet's nest in Cleveland on Sunday as despite their 2-6 record, the Browns have to feel that they can go on a run following last week's upset win over the Ravens. Cleveland gets its bye week next and the schedule doesn't really toughen up again until mid-December. There's reason to believe the Browns are capable of at the very least making things a little more interesting for their rabid fan base over the next month or so. The presence of QB Jameis Winston has given the rest of the Browns offense a boost. Job number one for Jameis will be taking care of the football on Sunday. If he can do that (and I realize that's a pretty big 'if'), I think there's a good chance Cleveland wins this game by margin. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Buffalo at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the points with the Seahawks as they host the Bills on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo has won consecutive games but those came against the Jets and Titans. Here, the Bills will head out on the road, travelling across the country to face a Seattle squad that is feeling pretty good about itself after last week's blowout win in Atlanta. The Seahawks are the surprise leaders in the NFC West entering the week but are still considered by most to be a pretender. A win here would serve as a major statement and I'm confident we'll see Seattle give Buffalo all it can handle. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Dolphins are picking the right time to bring QB Tua Tagovailoa back into the fold against an injury-depleted Cardinals defense playing on a short week off Monday's win over the Chargers. Perhaps no team needs its starting quarterback as a talent elevator than Miami. We've seen the Dolphins take a massive step back with Tua sidelined with their offense looking punchless at best. Last week's game was served up on a silver platter for the Fins in Indianapolis but they couldn't get the win. The season may be circling the drain but there's reason for optimism this week. Arizona has risen up on occasion this season but has yet to deliver consecutive wins. Off its previous two victories it lost by seven points against Detroit and 21 points against Green Bay. This is a virtual must-win for Miami given it will head on the road for consecutive games against the Bills and Rams over the next two weeks. I believe this line will prove too short. Take Miami (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this situation sets up for the 49ers as they look to gain an ounce of revenge after losing the Super Bowl at the hands of the Chiefs last February. While Kansas City has the benefit of coming off its bye week, San Francisco gets the best of both worlds in a sense as it had a few extra days of preparation thanks to playing in last week's Thursday nighter in Seattle but doesn't have to deal with the possible rust off the bye. While it's by no means a must-win for the Niners, it is a critical spot as they look to avoid falling below the .500 mark. The schedule isn't going to get much easier with tough sledding ahead including upcoming road games in Tampa, Green Bay and Buffalo. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season - that I'm certain of. With that being said, after this contest there's not a lot of resistance until a road game in Buffalo in the third week of November. We'll lay the short number with San Francisco. Take San Francisco (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants had every opportunity to stage an upset against the Bengals last Sunday night but ultimately squandered those in a 10-point loss. While this isn't a bad matchup for the G-Men on paper given how the Eagles have struggled, I don't see it going their way. Philadelphia did manage to win last week's tougher-than-expected matchup with Cleveland and I do think that gives it some confidence moving forward. This is a 'get right' game for the Eagles defense against a familiar opponent and with the Giants losing LT Andrew Thomas to injury. I think Philadelphia will be able to pin its ears back defensively in this game and I'm confident the offense can take care of the rest, noting that A.J. Brown has made an obvious impact. When healthy, this Eagles offense can still be elite. Even with super rookie WR Malik Nabers back on the field, the same can't be said for New York. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I don't like the prospect of the Steelers laying points as they travel across the country following last Sunday night's hard-fought loss against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh has now dropped consecutive games following a 3-0 start to the season. The Raiders are coming off a blowout defeat against the division rival Broncos in Denver last Sunday. They led that game 10-0 and appeared poised to go ahead 17-0 with a goal-to-go situation early in the second quarter but a Gardner Minshew interception resulted in a Patrick Surtain II pick-six and the rest was history. While Las Vegas doesn't have a lot going for it, I do think it will get up for this revenge spot after dropping a 23-18 decision at home against Pittsburgh last season. With the potential to climb back to the .500 mark with a win here, the Raiders undoubtedly still have plenty to play for. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens were very fortunate to come away with a win in Cincinnati last week. With the exception of its blowout win over Buffalo two weeks ago, all of Baltimore's games have gone down to the wire. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. The Commanders are going to be a popular underdog pick this week but that's fine. They've exceeded expectations to be sure but I don't think this spot is too big for them. Washington has cut QB Jayden Daniels loose and this is an offense that looks like it's playing with house money, so to speak. Defensively, the Commanders do have their warts but as I mentioned, Baltimore has had a difficult time putting teams away (look no further than its Week 2 loss at home against Las Vegas). We can anticipate a run-centric approach from the Ravens which effectively shortens proceedings and favors the underdog side catching a generous helping of points. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Few bettors want any piece of the Browns this week. Cleveland and namely QB Deshaun Watson looked disinterested in last Sunday's blowout loss in Washington. However, I do feel the value has swung Cleveland's way this week as it is catching nearly double-digits against a Philadelphia squad that hasn't exactly inspired a ton of confidence through four games this season (2-2 record). In today's NFL, where teams have a difficult time closing games out, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Browns. Cleveland did get some good news this week with top cornerback Denzel Ward expected to play. I'm still a believer in the Browns defense and you have to think that pride kicks in at some point, especially following that embarrassing performance in Washington last week. Finally, we'll note that the Eagles are just 17-24 ATS in their last 41 home games following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While it may seem like a fairly inconsequential loss as the Seahawks are still 3-2 on the campaign, make no mistake, they needed last Sunday's game against the Giants. Most thought that would be a layup for Seattle but New York ultimately won by a 27-20 score. Now the Seahawks begin arguably the most difficult five-game stretch on their schedule and to make matters worse, they'll be welcoming a 49ers team that will be in a foul mood following Sunday's upset loss to the Cardinals on Thursday night. The Niners have dominated this matchup in recent years, on both sides of the football. While San Francisco has sputtered in the early going this season, I see this as a 'get right' matchup on a short week. Look for the Niners offense to bully an undermanned Seahawks defense that is missing arguably its two best players in Riq Woolen and Byron Murphy. San Francisco is dealing with injuries of its own on defense but I expect it to expose a bad Seattle offensive line and roll to a convincing victory on Thursday. Take San Francisco (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

It's already difficult enough to go undefeated through five games (the Vikings are the only team to do it so far this season). Here, the Chiefs will be trying to accomplish that feat but from a pointspread perspective are also laying a handful of points. I believe the spread will prove too high. Saints QB Derek Carr is certainly familiar with the Chiefs from his days with the division rival Raiders. Carr has been playing some of his best football so far this season, even if he has cooled off along with the Saints offense over the last couple of games. Off consecutive losses to the Eagles and Falcons by the narrowest of margins, I like New Orleans chances of bouncing back here but we'll grab the points as few teams have displayed the knack for pulling out victory from the jaws of defeat as the Chiefs have in recent years. Note that the Saints are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 road games following a road loss, as is the case here. The Chiefs are 26-30 ATS in their last 56 home games following three straight victories. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

No one will give the Cardinals much of a chance in this game, not after seeing them drop back-to-back games at home including a beatdown at the hands of the Commanders last Sunday. I think Arizona can give San Francisco a run here, noting that the 49ers are a long-term 56-71 ATS in their last 127 games following a win by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Arizona checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games following an upset defeat at home. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The highlight of this game might just be the Broncos throwback uniforms because the game itself figures to be a slugfest. The Raiders have won eight straight meetings in this 'rivalry' and I'm hard pressed to come up with any reasons for Denver to be favored in this spot. The Broncos are coming off consecutive road wins over the Buccaneers and Jets but they didn't look overly impressive in either of those contests. Yes, their defense is for real but that unit can't be expected to shoulder the entire load on a weekly basis. I think this is a game where we see the Raiders defensive front control proceedings and ultimately force rookie QB Bo Nix into a couple of critical mistakes. Las Vegas figures to go run-heavy on offense, especially with WR DaVante Adams sidelined while he awaits a trade. That's just fine as QB Gardner Minshew needs to be cautious against an ultra-aggressive Broncos defense. This might just be a game where the points end up coming into play keeping in mind last year's matchup in Denver was decided by a single point (the Raiders won that game 17-16 with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm) and this contest features the lowest total on this week's board (or virtually on par with the Dolphins-Patriots). Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll call for the Panthers to bounce back following last week's home defeat at the hands of a desperate Bengals squad. Veteran QB Andy Dalton has given the Carolina offense some life and I think it can hang, even against a tough Bears defense in Chicago. The Bears delivered a home win over the injury-riddled Rams last Sunday. Note that they're 17-25 ATS in their last 42 home games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Carolina is a long-term winner in a road underdog role having gone 97-78 ATS in its last 175 contests in that situation. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

There will be regression coming for the Vikings at some point but I don't think we see it this week. This is another favorable matchup for the Vikes as they travel to London to take on a Jets squad that is still trying to figure things out. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers was already virtually immobile before suffering a knee injury last week. He's in a nightmarish situation here against an ultra-aggressive Vikes defense. I have little confidence in New York coming up with a gameplan to beat this Brian Flores-led defense that is firing on all cylinders. Offensively, the Vikes are playing smart and I expect them to take what the Jets defense gives them on Sunday. Don't count on a ton of explosiveness out of the Minnesota offense but it will do enough to secure a fifth straight victory. Take Minnesota (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Lions may be considered to be an elite team but there's hasn't really been anything elite about what they've put on tape through three games this season.

Detroit is 2-1 with wins over the Rams and Cardinals (it lost to the Buccaneers in Week 2). The Lions have yet to score more than 24 points in a game. Note that the Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against opponents that allow 175 pass yards per game or less. They're also just 15-23 ATS in their last 38 home contests after giving up 14 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here.

Seattle remains undefeated at 3-0. While I don't love backing undefeated teams, I'm willing to make an exception when that team is catching as many points as the Seahawks are in this spot. Note that Seattle is 31-25 ATS in its last 56 road games against opponents that gain 4.5 yards per rush or more. The Seahawks have been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush.

While most are anticipating a shootout in this game, I'm not convinced we'll see a ton of quick-strike plays. Instead look for these two efficient offenses to churn out long drives that effectively shorten proceedings. That favors the team catching points, especially when spotted more than a field goal. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

While the Dolphins don't instill a ton of confidence right now, neither do the Titans. I like the fact that Miami has settled on a quarterback in Tyler Huntley and he's undoubtedly a better fit for this offense than Skylar Thompson (he's not a fit for any NFL offense).

Note that Tennessee is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road after three straight ATS losses. The Titans are also a miserable 17-28 ATS in their last 45 road contests against opponents that have a win percentage between 25% and 40%.

We've seen the Titans depth-shy defense wilt in each of their first three games and I think the Fins can run an offense that will wear them down on Monday as well. Note that Tennessee is missing arguably its two best players in the secondary in Awuzie and Sneed. Take Miami (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers have major injury concerns right now but we know they're not conceding this divisional matchup as QB Justin Herbert is expected to play through his ankle injury. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season and I like Los Angeles' chances of effectively shortening proceedings on Sunday afternoon and at the very least taking this game down to the wire. Note that Kansas City is just 20-24 ATS in its last 44 road games following a road win, as is the case here. The Chiefs are also just 28-35 ATS in their last 63 road contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 69-53 ATS in their last 122 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points and 38-32 ATS in their last 70 contests against a team that wins 75% or more of its games. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This would typically be a fade spot for the Broncos as they stay on the road for a second straight week following last Sunday's upset win in Tampa. In today's NFL, I'm not so sure it's that straight-forward.

The Jets are simply laying too many points in my opinion. They've been idle since a week ago Thursday when they blasted the division-rival Patriots in a game that was never all that close. Now they get what looks like another gimme on paper but I think it's the type of matchup that can give New York trouble.

New York has a long track record of playing down to the competition, particularly at home. Note that it checks in 33-51 ATS in its last 84 home games against an opponent with a losing record. Additionally, the Jets are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 contests at home against opponents that average 4.75 yards per play or less, as is the case here.

Denver is 35-30 ATS in its last 65 road games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. The Broncos are also 28-24 ATS in their last 52 road games played in the month of September. Denver might not end up being very good this season, but it is quite simply catching too many points in this spot. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers have to be thrilled to be sitting at 2-1 with QB Jordan Love ready to return from injury on Sunday - an injury that was first thought to be far more long-term. I like the Vikings to keep their hot start going on Sunday as they catch the Packers in a letdown of sorts following last Sunday's blowout win in Tennessee. You can be sure the Vikes defense will get after Love and test his mobility in his first game back. I simply feel the Vikings are the more complete team and we're not catching a field goal with the news that Love will start. I'm not convinced the Pack aren't rushing Love back, realizing the importance of this early season divisional showdown. Look for a tightly-contested affair. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game the Buccaneers have had circled on their calendar after dropping a 25-11 decision on Monday Night Football last season. The Eagles will be pleased to simply get out of this game without any additional injuries and a 2-2 record wouldn't be all bad all things considered. While Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley has been the early season MVP, he'll be forced to shoulder too much of the load on Sunday with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith sidelined. The Eagles secondary doesn't match up particularly well against the Bucs receiving corps. After last week's stunning home loss to the Broncos, look for Tampa Bay to bounce back. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

This is a true 'get right' spot for Dallas on both sides of the football but on defense in particular. The Cowboys have been sieve-like on that side of the football over the last two weeks, getting lit up by the Saints and Ravens, at home no less. While the Giants are coming off their best offensive showing of the season, I don't like their prospects moving forward. New York has superstar-in-the-making WR Malik Nabers but not much else on offense. QB Daniel Jones is a turnover waiting to happen but was helped massively by game script, playing ahead most of the way against Cleveland last Sunday. The Giants defense was able to pin its ears back against Browns washed QB Deshaun Watson but won't be able to do the same against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. This is a massive bounce-back situation for Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb after he encountered blanket coverage against the Ravens last Sunday. I think this is a 'go off' spot for Lamb. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been hearing the critics loud and clear ever since Sunday's loss to Baltimore. The Ravens have the type of offense that can make an opposing defense look bad in any given game, however. The Giants do not. Look for Dallas to key on Nabers and make someone else on the Giants offense beat them on Thursday. It won't happen. Take Dallas (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Buffalo at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

The Bills have had 10 days to pat themselves on the back for their 2-0 start including a blowout win in primetime against division-rival Miami. I expect Buffalo to find the going much tougher against a hungry, winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday.

The Jags have run up against a tough early season schedule, first facing a full-strength Dolphins squad in the sweltering afternoon heat in Miami in Week 1 (they easily could have won that game were it not for a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble) and then hosting a loaded Browns defense that was coming off an embarrassing Week 1 loss at home against the Cowboys. Jacksonville has only been outscored by eight points through two games and that's with its offense producing next-to-nothing (a grand total of 30 points). I feel the Jags best days are ahead of them on offense and like the matchup against the Bills on Monday.

We know this Jacksonville offense can ball out. QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he hasn't been good enough through two games. Much is made about the awful track record of teams starting 0-2 in terms of reaching the playoffs. Keep in mind, the expanded playoffs do throw a wrench in that trend. Jacksonville still has everything to play for and the schedule does get a lot more manageable in October (vs. Colts, at Bears, vs. Patriots and vs. Packers). A win here could certainly flip the script. A loss and the Jags face the very real prospect of an 0-4 start with a difficult trip to Houston on deck next week.

The Bills have looked good through two games but we know what we're going to get with this team and that's often inconsistency. QB Josh Allen is being asked to shoulder more of the load on offense with a talent downgrade in terms of his weapons this season. So far, so good but I expect the Jags defense to offer far more resistance than the Cardinals and Dolphins did in the first two weeks.

Note that these two teams have met twice since 2021 with the Jaguars winning both matchups including a 25-20 victory in Buffalo last year. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to 2016 to find the last time the Bills beat the Jags by more than a field goal. In last year's matchup the Jags prevailed despite Trevor Lawrence being sacked five times and Josh Allen throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns (Jacksonville didn't record a single sack). I think there's actually room for improvement from the Jags on both sides of the football here, yet we're catching a handful of points. Take Jacksonville (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

There's no sugar-coating it, the Panthers season is already swirling down the drain after two nightmarish performances against the Saints and Chargers. But let's pump the brakes on this being an all-timer in terms of bad NFL teams. Carolina's first opponent, the New Orleans Saints, proceeded to throttle the mighty Cowboys the very next week in Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like they know exactly what they're doing under the guidance of Jim Harbaugh, jumping out to an identical 2-0 record to that of the Saints. My point is, perhaps the Panthers aren't quite as bad as most believe they are.

In a move most saw coming, Carolina elected to bench QB Bryce Young following last week's second straight poor showing. Veteran QB Andy Dalton takes over the offense and it's not as if he was signed off his couch. He was with the team last year and should be comfortable running the offense. I'm a believer that Dalton can at the very least settle things down and ultimately elevate this offense. It's not as if the Panthers are completely bereft of talent. This is an excellent spot for Carolina to regain its footing on offense as the Raiders have been matador-like in terms of run defense, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush through two games.

Las Vegas falls into a clear letdown situation here as it returns home after a massive come-from-behind upset win in Baltimore last Sunday. Few gave the Raiders a chance entering that game and certainly not when they were down double-digits in the second half. We saw Las Vegas open up the offense in that contest but that had a lot to do with game script as it was trailing by a considerable number of points. I suspect we see head coach Antonio Pierce's conservative tendencies resurface in this game as the Raiders go back to running the football. That's in our best interest as well as it effectively shortens the game and favors the team catching points.

It's critical not to over-react to NFL results on a week-to-week basis and I think that's precisely what the betting marketplace is doing by installing the Raiders are sizable favorites on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Panthers but hopefully won't need them. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Things could have gone sideways in a hurry for the Packers following the injury to QB Jordan Love in Week 1. However, we saw Green Bay pick up a much-needed win at home against Indianapolis last Sunday to give it a lift heading into this tougher than it may seem matchup in Tennessee in Week 3. Love is back practising and the betting markets have reacted by pushing this line in the Packers favor. I don't expect him to play but even if he does, I still like the winless Titans in this spot.

Green Bay's gameplan last week involved hiding backup QB Malik Willis and letting its defense take care of the rest. That approach worked wonders against an awful Colts run defense, not to mention an Indy offense that will struggle to play from behind all season. I expect a different story to unfold against the Titans.

Were it not for a couple of glaring mistakes from Tennessee QB Will Levis last week against the Jets, it likely would have controlled that contest from start to finish and picked up its first win of the season.

The Titans defense has impressed me. It had Jets QB Aaron Rodgers under duress all afternoon long.

Offensively, I would anticipate Tennessee going back to a run-centric approach against a Packers defense you can most definitely run on (Green Bay has allowed 5.5 yards per rush and two rushing touchdowns through two games). Backing the 0-2 Titans laying points against a potential playoff team may not be the easiest bet to make this week but I believe it's the right one. Take Tennessee (10*).

NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that the Commanders managed to score 20 points in last week's loss in Tampa masked their ineptness. This is a bad team and one that I don't think has a lot of room for improvement on a week-to-week basis.

QB Jayden Daniels showed flashes against the Buccaneers but much of his success came on the ground. He took plenty of physical abuse in that game, to the point that head coach Dan Quinn mentioned in his post-game presser that Daniels won't be able to be subject to that sort of punishment moving forward. I'm anticipating an already limited offense might just simplify and scale things back even more this week. The Giants defense is loaded up front and capable of taking over this game.

Offensively, the Giants are a bit of a mess. However, I don't think things are quite as bad as they're being made out to be. QB Daniel Jones has taken a ton of criticism throughout his NFL career and it's often deserved. I do think he saves face for a week at least as he should be able to pick apart a porous Washington secondary. Rookie WR Malik Nabers was held relatively quiet in last week's loss to Minnesota. He figures to go off this week. Nabers was listed as limited on Thursday's practice report but all indications it was just a minor scare related to leg soreness.

Unlike the Commanders, who entered the season with extremely low expectations, the Giants need to right the ship in a hurry. Their schedule only gets tougher with a trip to Cleveland next week followed by a Thursday night home game against the Cowboys. Looking ahead even further, they'll travel to Seattle in Week 5 and then host the Bengals in Week 6. I could go on but the fact is, without a victory on Sunday there's a better than zero chance that New York doesn't win a game for a long time. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Steelers defense was already elite before adding CB Donte Jackson from Carolina and LB Patrick Queen from Baltimore. The gameplan for Pittsburgh is simple. Play a game of hide-the-quarterback, run the football and lean on its defense to secure a road win in Week 1. I like the matchup for the Steelers.

Atlanta is saddled with fairly high expectations this season after bringing in a competent veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins. After signing Cousins to a big deal the Falcons went out and drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the opening round. I don't love the fit for Cousins. I'll also take a 'believe it when I see it' approach to the Atlanta offense taking a big leap with former head coach Arthur Smith having moved on to Pittsburgh (as offensive coordinator). I fully expect the Falcons to remain a little too conservative on offense (given their defensive short-comings) with defensive-minded Raheem Morris taking over as head coach.

We could very well see both teams employ similar gameplans here as they look to effectively shorten proceedings in an effort to start the campaign off with a victory. A lower-scoring game certainly favors the underdog and I like Pittsburgh in that role out of the gates. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers started last season 0-6 and ultimately won only two games in what was a truly disastrous campaign. By all accounts, the needle is pointing up entering the 2024 season with first-year head coach Dave Canales taking over after a successful stint at the Buccaneers offensive coordinator. This is the perfect opportunity for the Panthers to make a statement that things will be different this year after getting swept in the season series against the division-rival Saints last year.

Full disclosure, this play is more about fading the favored Saints and what I consider to be the league's worst head coach-QB tandem in Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Allen is as conservative as it gets in today's NFL and I don't need to tell you that doesn't generally lead to success beating pointspreads. Carr has never seen a check-down he doesn't like and is clearly on the downside of his career. He'll be leaning heavily on RB Alvin Kamara who doesn't figure to have much tread left on his tires. I am high on Saints WR Chris Olave but that's it on an otherwise pedestrian offensive attack that has an extremely low ceiling thanks to an awful offensive line.

The Saints dominated this matchup last year and Panthers QB Bryce Young in particular. That's clearly been baked into this pointspread, however, as has been the offseason talent rotation out of Carolina's defense. I like the 'nobody believes in us' angle with underdogs like the Panthers early in the season, before all hope is potentially lost, and certainly in division games such as this one. Take Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Friday.

I'm not quite as high on the Eagles as some entering the 2024 season. Yes, they're still going to contend for the NFC East title. However, I also think there's a good chance we see the Packers rise to elite status and want to be on board before the train leaves the station early in the campaign as far as value goes.

Green Bay made a number of savvy offseason moves, on both sides of the football. There was little subtraction from a core that improved steadily and elevated down the stretch last season. Instead, the Packers added key pieces that have the potential to put them over the hump and make them a true contender in the NFC this year.

Of course, this is a terrific early measuring stick game for the Packers. It's similar to the situation the Ravens were in last night, but Baltimore undoubtedly entered the season with more questions than Green Bay. The Ravens were also up against a truly elite Chiefs squad that certainly didn't forget opening last season with a Thursday night loss to Detroit.

I'm sure the Packers feel a little disrespected to be opening the season as underdogs in this neutral site contest. They want to be in the same conversation with the Eagles as far as NFC contenders go and I expect them to come out and make a statement on Friday. Take Green Bay (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points.

Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Rams nearly let the Commanders off the hook in Sunday's 28-20 win. They did hold on for the cover - their fourth straight ATS victory. Speaking of winning streaks, the Saints enter this game 'fat and happy' off consecutive blowout home wins over the Panthers and Giants. New York inexplicably elected to abandon its ground game against New Orleans' charmin-soft run defense and ultimately paid the price. I'm confident we'll see the Rams display a more balanced offensive attack here and wear down the New Orleans defense. There's little reason to have much faith in the Saints offense. They've run for 100+ yards just twice in their last six games and have topped 250 passing yards only once over that stretch (in a nine-point loss in Atlanta). Note that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series with none of those eight victories coming by fewer than six points. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendars since the start of the season - a long-awaited rematch with the Bills after dropping a 26-15 decision at home against Buffalo back in 2019. That most recent meeting between these two teams four years ago also featured the quarterback matchup of Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for 355 yards in a losing effort on that day. He's been MVP-worthy this season and while Dallas is likely to stumble at some point, I don't see it coming here. Buffalo is fresh off a massive road win over the Chiefs last Sunday. I expect the Bills success to be short-lived, however, noting they haven't strung together consecutive wins since a three-game winning streak from September 17th to October 1st. Note that Buffalo is a long-term 57-90 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in its last three games, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I generally anticipate games getting tighter and tighter at this time of year in Cleveland, where the December weather can be unpredictable and the Browns tend to go conservative in nature on offense. The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three games in a row ATS and an impressive 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine contests. That's in stark contrast to the Browns, who have dropped two of their last three games both SU and ATS and narrowly avoided coughing up a back-door cover against the Jags (in a game where Jacksonville didn't bring anything close to its 'A' game) last Sunday. Cleveland has inexplicably thrown the ball 89 times in the last two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I'm confident fading Flacco and the Browns offense here as the veteran QB is likely to be under duress all afternoon long against a much-improved Bears pass rush. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers caught the Lions flat-footed on Thanksgiving Day. It almost seemed as if Detroit thought Green Bay would simply roll over but that was far from the case. Here, I expect the Chiefs to be business-like in their approach once again, noting they're a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against non-conference opponents. As expected we heard plenty of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' whispers following their 21-17 home loss to the Eagles on MNF a couple of weeks ago. After a sluggish start in Las Vegas last Sunday, Kansas City eventually rolled to a two-touchdown victory. I expect plenty of carry-over from that flawless second half performance on Sunday night in Green Bay. This is another 'get right' spot against a Packers squad that just isn't as good as it looked in posting consecutive wins over the last two weeks. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not ready to write off the Browns just yet. Yes, they're coming off a disheartening loss to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday in a game that completely got away from them. I fully expect them to bounce back this week as they stay on the road to face the Rams, who are in a fairly obvious letdown spot off consecutive wins, including a blowout victory in Arizona last week. Are the Rams as good as they looked against the Cardinals? Probably not. Are the Browns as bad as they appeared against the Broncos? Certainly not. Keep in mind, prior to that loss in Denver, Cleveland had reeled off three consecutive wins SU and four in a row ATS. Yes, the Browns offense remains extremely limited but I think their defense can do a lot of the heavy lifting on Sunday, ultimately creating enough splash plays to give their offense some short fields to work with. Note that the Rams are a woeful 3-10 in their last 13 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against NFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm just not ready to buy in to the Steelers being installed as considerable favorites against any opponent, let alone a Cardinals squad that's fresh off an embarrassing 37-14 rout at the hands of the division rival Rams last week. Arizona has now dropped back-to-back games but is still 3-2 ATS over its last five contests. The Steelers picked up a massive come-from-behind win in Cincinnati last Sunday but let's not start planning the parade just yet. That came against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. Note that Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when priced as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.6 points in that situation. I think the pacific time zone team playing an early game in the east angle is overblown and will grab all the points I can get with the Cards on Sunday. Take Arizona (8*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, but those came against three of football's worst teams in the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. While the Seahawks are reeling off back-to-back losses, they're still 6-5 on the season and I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle on Thursday night. Seattle ran into an incredibly difficult matchup last week, playing with a number of key contributors banged-up on a short week against the red hot 49ers. I do think the extra couple of days off will help the Seahawks here. Note that Dallas is a long-term 17-38 ATS when coming off five or six ATS wins in its last seven games, as is the case here. It is also 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 28 points or more and 14-28 ATS in its last 42 contests following a home victory by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a long-term 59-35 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 43-22 ATS in their last 65 games after scoring 17 points or less in back-to-back games. Regardless what has separated these two NFC foes over the years, the Seahawks have stayed competitive. You would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2011, to find the last time Dallas defeated Seattle by more than seven points. The underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in this series. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

With whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs' swirling following Monday's loss to the Eagles - their second defeat in their last three games - we'll confidently back Kansas City to rebound against the division rival Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs ran into an elite opponent on Monday and paid the price for their mistakes in a 21-17 defeat. Yes, Kansas City's offense has sputtered but I see this as a 'get right' spot against the Raiders on Sunday. The Chiefs should be happy to see the black and silver on the other side of the field as they've scored 40, 32, 35, 41, 48, 30 and 31 points in the last seven meetings in this series. Las Vegas has performed admirably for rookie head coach Antonio Pierce but I'm also not sure that they've taken any opponent's best punch. They're likely to get just that here as Kansas City aims to rebound. Note that the Raiders are a woeful 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Jaguars rarely beat the Texans. They did blow out an awful Houston team last January but that marked their only victory in the last 11 meetings in this series. Earlier this season, the Texans went into Jacksonville and pounded the Jags 37-17. I see little reason why this ascending Texans squad can't deliver another win on Sunday. Despite failing to cover the spread in last week's 21-16 win over the Cardinals, I came away impressed by Houston once again. The Texans were in a prime letdown spot in that contest, fresh off a big upset win over the Bengals in Cincinnati the week previous. If it weren't for them shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers deep in Cardinals territory that result would have been far more lopsided. Jacksonville predictably rebounded from an embarrassing 34-3 rout at the hands of the 49ers the week previous by shredding the reeling Titans last Sunday. Note that the Jags are a long-term 10-27 ATS when coming off a game in which they outgained the opposition by 150 or more total yards, as is the case here. Take Houston (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Steelers dropped a heart-breaker in Cleveland last week and proceeded to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada in a move that was a long-time coming in the eyes of most. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to take full advantage of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad that enters this game reeling off back-to-back losses. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati by most accounts. It started the campaign with consecutive losses (and went 0-3-1 ATS in its first four games) with Joe Burrow hobbled with a calf injury. There was a brief resurgence once Burrow got healthy but now he's out for the season, leaving undrafted backup QB Jake Browning to run the offense. That spells trouble against a ferocious Steelers defense that has proven it can win games all on its own this season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator but won't put too much on the offense in this particular game as it is well-positioned to win ugly. Notably, the Steelers have owned this series in Cincinnati over the years and even when they've fielded weaker teams, they've still managed to split the last four meetings in this stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Cowboys enter this Thanksgiving Day divisional matchup with the Commanders riding a season-long two-game SU and ATS winning streak - that's right, season-long. As well as Dallas has played, consistency hasn't really been its calling card. The same goes for Washington and QB Sam Howell in particular. Howell is coming off a dreadful performance against the lowly Giants last Sunday, at home no less. The Commanders were upstaged by New York third-string QB Tommy DeVito, turning the football over a whopping six times in a 31-19 defeat. I do look for Washington to bounce back with a much sharper performance here, noting that it is a long-term 35-19 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of just 2.3 points in that situation. The Cowboys are a woeful 16-38 ATS in their last 54 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here, outscoring foes by only 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This is a rematch of last February's Super Bowl - a game where the Eagles were favored but ultimately fell by a score of 38-35. Revenge is of course a factor on Monday, but it's not really what this play is all about. I simply feel the Eagles are the superior team and suspect we'll be hearing whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' throughout the week before they almost certainly 'get right' with a two-game road jaunt to Las Vegas and Green Bay. The bye week came at the right time for the Eagles as it gave QB Jalen Hurts a chance to rest his ailing knee. The Philadelphia defense also comes out of the bye arguably as healthy as it has been all season. The Eagles have been a curious study on defense this year as they've dared teams to beat them through the air, all but stamping out opposing ground games entirely. Here, the Chiefs will likely get their yardage through the air but I question how many drives they can end with 7's rather than 3's. It's worth noting that Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown just 17 touchdown passes through nine games this season - a far cry from the 41 he amassed last season. While Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's post-bye week success has been well-documented, I expect his spectacular record in that situation to be put to the test here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The revenge-minded Seahawks will look to clean things up after a shaky but victorious performance at home against the Commanders last week. You may remember the Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle back in Week 1. They're unlikely to catch Seattle flat-footed again here, however. The Rams have appeared in complete disarray during their current three-game SU and ATS slide and I'm not convinced their bye week will help them out in any way. The Seahawks would be well-advised to take advantage of this winnable matchup as their schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher with their next four games coming at home against the 49ers (on Thanksgiving), at the Cowboys, at the 49ers and at home against the Eagles. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As difficult as it is to do, we'll fade the Cowboys off their 49-point explosion against the hapless Giants last week. The Panthers have just one victory both SU and ATS this season, that coming on October 29th against the upstart Texans. Note that while they're 1-3 at home this season, only one of those losses came by more than eight points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys check in 2-3 SU on the road this season with their lone win by more than three points coming way back in their Week 1 rout of the Giants. Note that Dallas is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. The Panthers are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games after scoring 17 points or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the setup for the underdog Cardinals here as they look rejuvenated with QB Kyler Murray back at the helm and catch the Texans in a massive letdown spot off last Sunday's stunning road win in Cincinnati. Arizona has proven to be a 'tough out' under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon this season and last week's offensive breakout led by Murray and fast-emerging TE Trey McBride has it brimming with confidence heading into this 'spoiler' spot against the upstart Texans. Houston has been involved in three straight barn-burners - all decided by three points or less. While this team may never' hit the wall in their first season under the guidance of head coach DeMeco Ryans, I do think they get tripped up at some point during this three-game homestand, noting they've yet to notch more than two victories in a row this season. Arizona checks in 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of seven points or less while Houston is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 contests following an upset victory. Take Arizona (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since the Steelers stunned them in a 26-22 victory in Pittsburgh on September 18th. The Steelers gained only 255 total yards in that game but turnovers were the story. The Browns have now lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury but I don't expect them to fold the tent as a result. Everything is still in front of Cleveland after last week's upset win in Baltimore as it sits at 6-3 on the season in a crowded AFC North. This is a key spot with a sneaky-difficult two-game road jaunt to Denver and Los Angeles (vs. the Rams) on deck. Take Cleveland (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I can't help but feel the Bengals got caught overlooking the upstart Texans last Sunday, as many other teams have, or almost have this season. That loss snapped Cincinnati's four-game winning streak and put it in tough position here as it needs a win to avoid following three wins behind Baltimore in the AFC North standings. I do think the Bengals are one of those teams where the 'revenge' angle matters. We saw it in play to a certain extent a few weeks ago as Cincinnati went on the road and defeated San Francisco (after dropping a heartbreaker against the Niners at home in Joe Burrow's rookie season two years ago). Here, the Bengals will be looking to avenge an earlier 27-24 home loss against the Ravens, when Joe Burrow clearly wasn't right dealing with a calf injury earlier in the campaign. Baltimore also got caught overlooking its opponent last Sunday as it dropped a last-second decision against the division-rival Browns. While I don't believe the Ravens are as bad as they looked in the second half of that game, I also don't think they're as invincible as they appeared during their recent four-game winning streak. Home team has meant plenty in this series with the hosts winning four of the last five matchups. With that being said, you would have to go back three meetings here in Baltimore to find the last time the Ravens defeated the Bengals by more than two points. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bills have now dropped the cash in five straight games after last week's 24-18 setback in Cincinnati. While their offense bogged down in that game, their banged-up defense actually held up well against an elite offense. If there's one thing the Broncos have done well lately it's run the football but Buffalo has actually done a tremendous job of snuffing out opposing ground attacks over its last three contests, yielding just 3.6 yards per rush. Denver, on the other hand, has been torched on the ground, allowing a ridiculous 6.1 yards per rush on the road this season. If the Bills can get their ground game going early on Monday, it could be lights out in a hurry as Josh Allen draws a smash spot against the Broncos 'one-trick pony' pass defense here. Buffalo desperately needs to take advantage of this two-game homestand that also includes a date with the Jets next week before a brutal stretch that includes road games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Chargers and a home contest against the Cowboys. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I generally look to fade the Commanders off a win at the best of times but here we have their opponent in a smash spot as well as the Seahawks return home following a lifeless performance in Baltimore last week. Washington has relied heavily on dual-threat QB Sam Howell to keep its offense afloat without a ground game to speak of this season. That spells trouble in situations such as this, however, where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind. Seattle has struggled to lift the lid off its offense in recent weeks after showing so much promise early in the campaign (it scored exactly 37 points in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina in September). This looks like a potential breakout spot against a Washington squad that has already allowed 30+ points on five different occasions this season and certainly didn't get any better defensively but cutting ties with pass-rush specialists Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Note that Washington is averaging a woeful 14.5 points per game the last six times it has come off an upset win on the road, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers have taken full advantage of back-to-back favorable primetime matchups against the Bears and Jets but now take a big step up in class as they host the rested Lions on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is coming off its bye week which gave it the opportunity to get healthy on offense with RB David Montgomery, LG Jonah Jackson and C Frank Ragnow set to return. That's positive news for QB Jared Goff, especially when you consider Montgomery can not only produce yards on the ground and through the air but is also one of the league's best blocking backs. The Chargers offense is predicated on balance which doesn't bode particularly well here with the Lions allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season. Only one of Detroit's eight opponents has managed to rush for 100 or more yards this season. With eight of the Lions last nine games coming indoors, they're well-positioned to take flight and I think it all starts with this road tilt on Sunday. Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'll take my chances grabbing the points with the Jets in what projects as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night in New Jersey. Note that these two teams were involved in a high-scoring shootout the last time they met in 2020. On that day, the Jets nearly staged a massive upset (as 10-point underdogs) on the road, with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, despite Chargers QB Justin Herbert completing 37-of-49 passes for 347 yards (Los Angeles won by only six points). We've already seen the Jets employ smart strategies in similarly tough home matchups this season, holding the likes of Buffalo and Philadelphia to just 16 and 14 points in a pair of upset victories. Jets QB Zach Wilson is likely to be under duress all night long but I have confidence in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson's ability to come up with enough big plays to keep the Chargers defense honest. Los Angeles hasn't been able to find a consistent ground attack this season, making it unlikely it will be able to 'take the air out of the football' should it build a lead in this contest. The Jets have done a tremendous job of stamping out opposing passing games, allowing 268 passing yards or less in all seven games to date. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys seem to generally have a small margin for error when they step up in class for games such as this one, particularly on the road. They turned in a near-perfect performance at home against the Rams last Sunday, particularly on the defensive side of the football, yet still only forced one turnover. The 'well has run dry' so to speak in that department as they've failed to force more than a single turnover in any of their last three games - something I do think they'll need to do in order to reach the win column on Sunday. While something like turnovers isn't really predictable, I do think we can count on the Eagles to put a supreme focus on taking care of the football on Sunday after they coughed it up a whopping eight times over the last three games (they still won two of those three contests). The Cowboys check in a woeful 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after recording a home win by 21 points or more. Worse still, they're a long-term 16-37 ATS after delivering five or six ATS wins in their last seven games, which is also the situation here (5-2 ATS this season). The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.1 points. Meanwhile, the home team has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the lone road cover over that stretch coming by way of Dallas in a regular season finale where it was favored by 6.5 points in 2022 (Gardner Minshew started that game for Philadelphia). Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Really tough spot for the Browns here after they 'left it all on the field' in last week's wild, high-scoring win in Indianapolis. The Seahawks had what amounted to a scrimmage at home against the Cardinals and should be no worse for wear entering this game. In fact, Seattle is expected to be stronger with WR D.K. Metcalf likely to return. The Browns lost key backup RB Jerome Ford last week so it's the Kareem Hunt show this Sunday. That's not to mention the fact that QB P.J. Walker with his pop-gun arm will remain under center against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles bandwagon was effectively cleared following last Sunday's upset loss against the Jets. Here, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia bounce back against the red hot Dolphins. Miami looks unstoppable on offense but its defense remains vulnerable. The Fins were fortunate to face two punch-drunk offenses in the Giants and Panthers over the last two weeks. They'll face a much different animal this week as the Eagles return home in a foul mood after being perplexed by the Jets defense last Sunday. Philadelphia still has an elite offense while its defense can hold serve just enough to ultimately extend the margin against Miami. Note that the Eagles are 45-24 ATS in their last 69 home games after losing two of their last three contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions are rolling off four straight wins but I look for that streak to grind to a halt on Sunday in Baltimore. Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery for this game and that's a key development as he's one of the best blocking backs in football in addition to his production on the ground. Head coach Dan Campbell has indicated that rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will have a full workload but I expect him to struggle in multiple facets here. Detroit has had a difficult time defending opposing tight ends which sets this up as a smash spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Note that the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Lions are a woeful 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here. Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The betting market seems spooked by the presence of former Division-II quarterback Tyson Bagent making his first career start for the Bears. Keep in mind, Bagent turned in an impressive preseason campaign, winning the backup QB job. We'll gladly fade the Raiders as a road favorite as they look to string together a third straight victory. Neither of their last two wins were particularly impressive as they slipped past the Packers and Patriots at home. Those wins had more to do with the ineffectiveness of their opposition than their own sharp play. Note that Las Vegas has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season, nor has it rushed for 100 or more yards. The only other time we saw it travel for an early kickoff it fell by a 38-10 score in Buffalo. The Bears are not the Bills but I expect them to give the Raiders plenty of trouble in the Windy City on Sunday. Las Vegas has dropped the cash in six straight games as a road favorite. Take Chicago (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers check into this road tilt sporting an 0-4 record with QB Bryce Young struggling in his rookie campaign. I think Carolina's offense can get going a little bit in favorable conditions indoors in Detroit on Sunday while we'll gladly fade the Lions coming off consecutive double-digit victories. The Packers didn't look ready for the Lions at all in last week's matchup and Detroit ultimately rolled to a 14-point victory. While Detroit is now 3-1 on the season, it's worth noting that it has gone a long-term 22-42 ATS when coming off three victories in its last four games, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. The Panthers on the other hand have been outscored by a minuscule average margin of 0.8 points the last 66 times they've come off three ATS defeats in their last four contests, as is the case here. These two teams just met last Christmas Eve with the Panthers prevailing by a decisive 37-23 margin. For whatever reason, Carolina seems to match up well with Detroit, taking three of four matchups since 2017 with its lone loss over that stretch coming by a single point here in the Motor City in 2018. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*).

AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*).

AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are off to solid 2-1 starts to the season. That was expected of the Lions, even if their path to get there has been a little surprising. Few gave the Packers much of a chance as they began the post-Aaron Rodgers era. However, Green Bay has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and I think that will prove to be the case again on Thursday. The Packers find themselves in a rare 'triple revenge' spot in this series having dropped the last three matchups going back to early 2022. They actually did a tremendous job of containing a terrific Lions offense in last season's two meetings, allowing a grand total of 35 points and holding WR Amon-Ra St-Brown to just 104 scoreless yards. While most consider Jordan Love a considerable downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, he won't have too high of expectations thrown his way after Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes and four interceptions against Detroit last season. Love is expected to get some help this week with the return of RB Aaron Jones and the season debut of WR Christian Watson. I expect both to make an impact. Defensively, the Packers have some work to do at the back-end, especially if Jaire Alexander is forced to miss his second straight game. The good news is, the Lions offense hasn't been quite the same on the road, with Jared Goff looking like a completely different quarterback away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Green Bay pass rush specialist Rashan Gary has looked like a man on a mission after last year's devastating ACL injury and is a true game-wrecker on the line. Here, we'll note that the Lions are a long-term 12-30 ATS when priced as a road favorite of less than a touchdown, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Packers are a long-term 108-79 when playing at home on six days or less rest, outscoring the opposition by 8.2 points on average and a terrific 11-2 ATS in an underdog role over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Everyone is ready to write off the Bengals following an ugly 0-2 start and now with QB Joe Burrow likely to miss Monday's showdown with the Rams. I actually think this is an excellent opportunity for Cincinnati to silence its critics and get its season turned around against a very beatable opponent. The Rams have been cooked by opposing ground attacks through the first two games this season, allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush. The Bengals are well-positioned to attack Los Angeles on the ground with RB Joe Mixon, especially if Burrow can't suit up. Backup QB Jake Browning has flashed at times in the preseason, particularly with his mobility. The Rams have Aaron Donald on defense much not much else. While WR Puka Nacua has stole the show through two games, I don't think we're seeing much more than the ghost of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Expect the Bengals to make a statement. Take Cincinnati (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is an absolute walk for the Cowboys as they look to build off of consecutive blowout wins over the Giants and Jets with another lopsided victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. Dallas did lose standout CB Trevon Diggs to a season-ending ACL earlier this week but that's of little consequence in this particular matchup. The Cowboys figure to do whatever they want offensively in this game against a depleted Cardinals defense that folded the tent in the second half against the Giants lukewarm offense last Sunday. Meanwhile, even without Diggs, the Dallas defense figures to make life miserable for the Arizona offense here. The Cowboys have absolutely stymied opposing ground attacks in the early going this season and that should leave Cards QB Joshua Dobbs on an island for much of the afternoon on Sunday. This a 'name your score' type of game for Dallas and the end result shouldn't be pretty for Arizona. Take Dallas (8*).