NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5.

The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night.

For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home.

Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday.

This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*).

NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.

We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*).

NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here.

The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season.

Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season.

Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1.

Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*).

NBA Playoff Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I like the fact that the Bucks have had two full days to sit around and listen to everyone saying they're a 'regular season team' and that they have no shot at coming back against the Nets in this series. Keep in mind, Milwaukee closed as a favorite in Game 2 of this series in Brooklyn. The oddsmakers were certainly giving them more than just a chance at getting back in this series at that point. Now we're seeing an overreaction following the lopsided nature of Game 2. Consider that the Nets have gone just 2-7 SU after a win by 20 points or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in those nine contests. They're also just 3-7 SU when on the road after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an incredible 15-3 SU when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (yes, they closed as a short favorite in Game 2) over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that Milwaukee checks in 35-9 SU when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*).

NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.

Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*).

NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday.

Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*).

NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday.

This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*).

NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as Utah prevailed by a 141-129 score (we won with the Jazz in that game). Now the scene shifts to Memphis for Game 3, where we've seen a much different style of basketball played this season. Memphis will certainly be looking to exact a little revenge here, and I expect it to do it at the defensive end of the floor. The 'under' has gone 23-14 in Grizzlies home games this season with an average total of 220 points. The Grizzlies actually average 3.6 points per game below their season scoring average here at home. We can expect both teams to play some defense on Saturday - something we just didn't see in Game 2 as both teams shot better than 54% from the field. Note that prior to that game, the Jazz had held six straight and nine of their last 10 opponents to 46.6% or worse shooting. Memphis had held eight of its last nine opponents to 44.7% or worse shooting. It's also easy to forget that Game 1 of this series totaled just 221 points. Yes, the Jazz welcomed back Donovan Mitchell in Game 2 and he contributed 25 points in 25 minutes but I'm not sure that his presence warrants the very large shift in the total from Game 1 (216.5) to Game 3 (224 at the time of writing). Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 19-4 with the Grizzlies coming off a game that totaled 245 points or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Grizzlies returning home off a double-digit road loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 209.4 points. Also note that a rested Jazz squad has generally been a good thing for 'under' bettors, with the 'under' going 41-25 the last 66 times Utah has played for just the second time in five days, as is the case here, with those games totaling 215.1 points on average over the last three seasons. Finally, I'll point out that four of the last five meetings between these two teams here in Memphis have gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday.

You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*).

NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*).

NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw an incredibly low-scoring game (by today's NBA standards) in the opener of this series on Sunday as the Suns cruised to a 99-90 victory. I certainly expect to see the Lakers punch back on Tuesday night but Phoenix isn't going to roll over and has proven to be an incredibly efficient offensive team here at home this season, averaging 116.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Suns coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 225.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 13-4 with the Suns coming off four or more straight victories over the last two seasons with an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. As for the Lakers, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 49-26 clip the last 75 times they've played on the road off a loss against a division opponent. Look for an answer from Lebron and A.D. off an off day on Sunday but the Suns should do their part to help this one 'over' the total as well. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*).

NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 2:05 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams just met last Saturday with Milwaukee cruising to a 122-108 victory. That game stayed 'under' the total but this time around we're dealing with a considerably lower number. I believe it will prove too low. The Bucks can pretty much put up 120 points per game here at home in their sleep. They check in ranked seventh in the league in floor percentage here at home and third in possessions per game. Milwaukee also ranks third in the NBA in total rebounding percentage here at home - a big advantage over a Heat squad that ranks 19th in rebound rate on the road - which should allow it to push the pace here. I do believe Miami can afford itself some extra scoring opportunities in transition here as well given it ranks seventh in the league in steals per defensive play on the road and Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in turnovers per possession at home. The 'under' cashed in three of five games in last year's playoff series although I would take that with a grain of salt as those contests were played in unique circumstances in the bubble in Orlando. While the 'under' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings this year - all three games actually went 'over' the number we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take the over (10*).

NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

We've seen the defense ramp up during the NBA Play-In Tournament and I expect that to continue on Friday night as the Grizzlies face the Warriors for the fourth time this season - this time with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. All three previous matchups have gone 'under' the total. In fact, eight of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three season have gone 'under'. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams more locked in defensively right now. The Grizzlies have held six of their last seven opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse. On the flip side, however, Memphis has shot 44.4% or worse from the field itself in each of its last three contests. The Warriors have been even better than the Grizzlies defensively, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents to 46.5% shooting or worse. Memphis has seen the 'under' cash in seven of its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is an incredible 13-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 208.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Warriors have come off a road loss by three points or less, as is the case here, with those contests reaching an average total of just 213.1 points. With everything to play for on Friday night, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*).

NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*).

NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*).

NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*).

NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*).

NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*).

NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*).

NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*).