NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*).

NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*).

NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*).

NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*).

NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*).