Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-26-24 | Rockies +164 v. Giants | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We have to take a shot with the red hot Rockies on Friday as they head to San Francisco to face a Giants club that is reeling right now. San Francisco ranks firmly in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In other words, we're not talking about a short-term slump. While Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has had his share of previous struggles against current Giants hitters, the fact is he just silenced them in a start last week and Colorado checks in a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts. We'll ride the hot hand here. Giants starter Kyle Harrison was once pegged as one of their top pitching prospects but we're talking about a guy that has now made 24 career big league starts and has failed to make any sort of real progress, logging a 4.49 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The Rockies rank top-three in baseball in wOBA over the last 14 and 7 days (at the time of writing). At this generous price, we can't pass them up. Take Colorado (8*). |
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07-26-24 | Pirates +156 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. NOTE: This play will be 'action' with the Diamondbacks yet to announce their official starter (Zac Gallen is probable). The Pirates are every bit as much involved in the National League playoff hunt as the Diamondbacks and they're just as hot as well, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games. They'll turn to Luis Ortiz on Friday while the D'Backs haven't settled on a starter (at the time of writing) but Zac Gallen looks like the leading candidate. Ortiz has been quietly effective for the Buccos this season, rewarding them for sticking with him after a disastrous 2023 campaign. Ortiz logged a FIP nearing six last year but has bounced back to post a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in north of 70 innings of work this season. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 in his four starts to date. While not bursting with depth, the Pirates bullpen is worth betting on when rested, which is the case here following an off day on Thursday. If Gallen does get the start for the D'Backs, that serves our purposes just fine. He hasn't been the dominant pitcher we've come to expect this season and Arizona has lost each of his last two home starts and is just 3-5 in his last eight outings overall. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts. Note that the Pirates have been trending in the right direction offensively, climbing the ladder in terms of weighted on base average over the last 14 and seven days. Arizona was red hot and while still effective at the dish, it has cooled slightly over the last seven and 14 days (according to wOBA). Arizona did bolster its bullpen by adding A.J. Puk in a trade yesterday but that only further illustrates that its relief corps is an issue. Puk owns a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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07-26-24 | Cubs v. Royals -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 140 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is a pitching mismatch as the Cubs trot out potential trade chip Kyle Hendricks against Brady Singer of the Royals. Hendricks may be an attractive piece for a contending team looking for another experienced arm for the stretch run but that's about it. He's been awful this season, logging a 5.43 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. The Cubs have lost 14 of his 18 starts this season. You would have to go all the way back to mid-April to find the last one-run loss in that bunch so we're not all that concerned with laying the extra run with the Royals here. Singer has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the White Sox. The Cubs aren't the White Sox but they haven't proven to be much better at the plate, especially lately as they check in ranked just one spot higher (in 29th place) in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-25-24 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. Go back over the last seven, 14 and even 30 days and you'll find the Oakland A's near the top of the majors in terms of weighted on base average. They're coming off a poor showing against a steadily-improving Hunter Brown of the Astros yesterday but I fully expect them to bounce back against Angels left-hander Kenny Rosenberg on Thursday. Rosenberg will be making his 13th big league appearance - all coming with the Angels since 2022. In 10 innings of work this season he has been tagged for seven earned runs. In his major league career, Rosenberg has posted a 4.42 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. While the Angels have been one of baseball's worst offensive teams for most of the season, they do have a chance to go off on Thursday as they face A's journeyman starter Ross Stripling. He's slated to make his first start since May. Things certainly haven't gone well for Stripling this season and particularly over his last four outings as he has given up 17 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings of work over that stretch. Stripling is allowing a whopping 12.4 hits per nine innings this season while striking out only 5.7. On an evening where the temperature will hover around 80 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to right center at Angel Stadium, we'll confidently back the 'over' on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-25-24 | Tigers +150 v. Guardians | 3-0 | Win | 150 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Guardians are in a bit of a tough spot on the mound after Tanner Bibee was forced to leave last night's game early due to injury. Three of their key relievers will be unavailable for Thursday's game after working each of the last two nights. They'll also be starting Gavin Williams, who has struggled in his sophomore campaign. Cleveland is just 1-3 in Williams' four starts so far this season. He owns a WHIP approaching 1.60 in 18 innings of work. For the Tigers, this amounts to a 'bullpen game' with left-handed reliever Tyler Holton starting. That's just fine as they used just two relievers in last night's game, keeping most of their key arms rested. The Guardians offense has cooled off considerably in recent weeks and even over the last month. While Detroit's bats were quiet last night, recording only two hits, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Thursday afternoon. Take Detroit (8*). |
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07-24-24 | Giants +180 v. Dodgers | 8-3 | Win | 180 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Robbie Ray has been all but forgotten by most but he'll make his Giants debut on Wednesday as San Francisco looks to snap its two-game skid against the Dodgers. It's easy to forget that Ray won the A.L. Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays and then turned in a fine follow-up campaign with the Mariners in 2022 before going on the shelf after just one disastrous outing last season. He's been working his way back and has logged a solid 3.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings of work in the Giants minor league system this season. There's obviously a big difference between pitching in the minors and facing live major league pitching (against one of the best offensive teams in baseball in the Dodgers) but I don't think too much will be asked of Ray here. The Giants have managed their bullpen well lately. Only long reliever Randy Rodriguez is likely unavailable for this game after working the last two nights. Tyler Glasnow will also be making his return to a big league mound on Wednesday but he's coming off a much shorter stint on the I.L. Glasnow last pitched on July 5th, when he gave up five earned runs in six innings against the Brewers. In fact, Glasnow has given up exactly five earned runs in three of his last five outings so he's been anything but untouchable. Current Giants hitters have posted a respectable .764 OPS in 69 career at-bats against him. The Dodgers figure to be without two key relievers for this game after Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen worked in the first two games of this series. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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07-24-24 | Tigers +132 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit over Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty continues to get no respect whatsoever from the betting marketplace, despite the fact he's been on the mound for six Detroit victories in his last seven outings. Thought to be a key trade chip leading up to the deadline next week, Flaherty has shown no signs of slowing down as we enter the dog days of Summer. He has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts and this is a matchup he can handle as current Guardians hitters are just 14-for-60 with a .681 OPS against him. While Flaherty has had a penchant for giving up home runs lately, allowing six in his last four outings, the weather conditions should help him in that regard on Wednesday with relatively cool temperatures (for late July in Cleveland) and fairly strong winds blowing in from left-center. Tanner Bibee will counter for Cleveland. He did manage to pitch well over five innings in his most recent start against the Padres but the Guardians have dropped two of his last three outings and he gave up eight earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of work in those two losses (one of them came against these same Tigers). Current Tigers hitters are 16-for-56 off of Bibee with a .785 OPS. Both bullpens have been overworked in the first two games of this series so there's no real advantage in that department. We'll go with the better starter at a generous price on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). |
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07-23-24 | Mets +140 v. Yankees | 3-2 | Win | 140 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Mets over the Yankees at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees are coming off a much-needed 9-1 win over the Rays in an afternoon affair yesterday. One game (or win) does not make a team, however, and the fact is the Yanks aren't all that dominant right now. They're still being priced as an elite team of course and we'll take advantage of that fact and fade them with a play on the Mets in Tuesday's latest instalment of the Subway Series in the Bronx. The Mets will hand the ball to veteran left-hander Jose Quintana. Thought to be an attractive piece for a contender leading up to the trade deadline, the Mets are actually still in the race and will need him to step up down the stretch. Quintana owns a disappointing 5.00 FIP this season but a far more respectable 1.26 WHIP. Note that he had tossed seven shutout innings in consecutive starts prior to giving up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Rockies last time out. Luis Gil will counter for the Yankees. New York came away victorious in his most recent start in Baltimore but had dropped each of his previous four outings. In 19 starts, Gil owns a 3.60 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Those are certainly good numbers but perhaps not as good as the market is pricing at the time of writing in advance of Tuesday's contest. I don't believe the chasm between these two bullpens is as wide as it is often made out to be. The Mets can hang in this matchup and we'll take a shot with them at a generous price on Tuesday. Take the Mets (8*). |
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07-22-24 | Reds +139 v. Braves | 4-1 | Win | 139 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. The Reds are coming off a series sweep at the hands of the Nationals over the weekend while the Braves dropped two of three games against the Cardinals. I simply feel this price should be much closer to a pk'em than we're dealing with. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Hunter Greene. He's been terrific lately, allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts. In fact, Greene is having a career year as he has posted a 3.63 FIP and 1.12 WHIP. Speaking of career years, Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez has impressed as well - like Greene he also earned an N.L. All-Star nod. Of note, however, the Braves are just 1-2 over his last three starts and 8-9 in their last 17 games overall. Last time out Lopez was hit hard, giving up 11 hits over six innings against the Padres. In a pitching matchup that looks like a toss-up to me, we'll take a flyer on the underdog Reds. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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07-21-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Rockies | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series in a pair of tightly-contested affairs. I look for San Francisco to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion on Sunday. Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been the cure for many teams' ails over the course of the season. He checks in 2-6 with a 4.61 ERA. Incredibly, Gomber remains in the rotation despite allowing four earned runs or more in six of his last seven outings. Rookie Hayden Birdsong is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in four starts for the Giants this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he held the Twins to just one earned run on two hits over five innings in a 4-2 Giants loss. The Giants bullpen is in excellent shape after using only two relievers for 29 total pitches in last night's game. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-20-24 | Astros v. Mariners -112 | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Astros took the opener of this series by a 3-0 score last night. We'll back the Mariners to rebound on Saturday as they send George Kirby to the hill against Framber Valdez. Kirby continues to pitch well with a 2.82 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Unfortunately the Mariners have dropped his last three starts due to a lack of offensive production. I'm confident they can rectify that on Saturday, however, as they face Valdez. Current Mariners hitters are 53-for-180 (.294) off of the left-hander with an OPS of .772. This is obviously a big series right out of the All-Star break with these two teams tied atop the A.L. West following last night's result. The Mariners are still 30-19 at home this season and I look for them to bounce back here. Take Seattle (8*). |
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07-20-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has inexplicably strung together three straight team wins in his last three starts. In fact, you would have to go back five Freeland outings to find the last time the Rockies lost by more than a single run with him on the hill. We'll go against that trend on Saturday, however, as I still feel that Freeland is one of baseball's weakest starters and enters with a miserable track record against current Giants hitters. San Francisco will be happy to be facing Freeland, noting that its current hitters have gone 30-for-91 (.330) against him with a .906 OPS. Despite his recent success, the Rockies left-hander still owns a 4.29 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season. It's a much different story for Giants starter Logan Webb. The N.L. All-Star checks in with a 2.80 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but will be looking to bounce back following an ugly outing against Toronto on July 10th. Note that current Rockies hitters are just 37-for-154 (.240) off of Webb with a .611 OPS. The Giants were serious about securing a win in a tight ball game last night as they used four key relievers (and ultimately fell short). That's of little consequence here with the All-Star break barely in the rear-view mirror. It should be all hands on deck for the San Francisco 'pen on Saturday. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-19-24 | Reds -117 v. Nationals | 5-8 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Friday. The Reds were red hot offensively going into the All-Star break, ranking best in baseball in weighted on base average during the stretch from last Friday to Sunday and top five in that category going all the way back to the previous Friday. They should have little trouble picking up right where they left off as they face a left-hander in Patrick Corbin on Friday. Note that Cincinnati has been slightly better at the plate against left-handers (14th in wOBA) compared to right-handers (18th in wOBA) this season. Corbin went back to his struggling ways prior to the break, allowing 11 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 innings. On the season he owns a 4.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP - both numbers are well north of his career marks as his regression continues (Corbin turns 35 on Friday). Frankie Montas will counter for the Reds. He'll be facing a Nationals lineup that cooled off considerably leading into the All-Star break. Note that current Nationals hitters are just 5-for-24 off of the veteran right-hander with a .478 OPS (all five hits were singles). Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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07-16-24 | National League v. American League UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the National League and American League at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We've been riding the 'under' in recent MLB All-Star Games to considerable success and we'll do so again on Tuesday night in Arlington. I like the way both pitching staffs are made up. It goes without saying that the needle is swinging back toward baseball's best young arms with the likes of Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal starting this year's Midsummer Classic. Don't sleep on the relievers that have been selected to these two teams either - both sides will be able to give the hitters a lot of different looks and keep them off balance all night long. While the bats are imposing as usual, it's nothing we haven't seen before in recent All-Star Games, and four straight and six of the last seven instalments have totalled seven runs or less. Take the under (8*). |
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07-14-24 | Nationals v. Brewers -140 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm never a big fan of the 'avoid the sweep' angle in baseball. If it were that simple, every bettor would be successful. With that being said, I do like the Brewers chances of salvaging a win against the Nationals on Sunday, for a number of reasons. The Nationals entered this series riding a five-game losing streak, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mets to open their current road trip. Despite winning the last two games, they're still four games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Irvin will get the start for Washington on Sunday. The All-Star break can't come soon enough for the left-hander, who is approaching his career-high in innings pitched (nine innings shy entering Sunday's start) and will start on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation (he's thrown 99 and 94 pitches in his last two starts). Collin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. While his numbers aren't going to jump off the page, the Brewers do like to play for him having gone 12-6 in his 18 starts this season. He was lit up by the Pirates in his most recent outing but games like that have been few and far between. Rea is just one start removed from tossing seven shutout innings against the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Nationals used five of their six available relievers in yesterday's game including Derek Law and Kyle Finnegan for a second straight game (likely rendering them unavailable here). Keep in mind, they also dealt key reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals. Meanwhile, the Brewers are projected to have 'all hands on deck' in their bullpen for this pre-All-Star break finale. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-13-24 | Yankees v. Orioles -130 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Yankees starter Luis Gil bounced back last time out as he gave up just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings but his team lost once again. In fact, New York has dropped each of his last four outings. Noting that current Orioles hitters are batting .298 in 47 career at-bats with a .757 OPS against Gil, his presence should be just what the doctor ordered for Baltimore on Saturday. Of course, the O's have been slumping. Note, however, Baltimore has gone a perfect 3-0 in Grayson Rodriguez's last three starts and he has recorded a solid 3.43 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season. Current Yankees hitters are just 7-for-34 off of Rodriguez with an OPS of .554. While the O's did use four different relievers in last night's 4-1 defeat, none of those pitchers were pressed into action the night previous. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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07-12-24 | Mariners v. Angels +135 | 5-6 | Win | 135 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners are red hot right now, winners of three games in a row including a decisive 11-0 victory in the opener of this four-game series in Anaheim last night. We'll call for the Angels to bounce back on Friday, however, as they send recent All-Star selection Tyler Anderson to the mound against injury-plagued Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Woo's season has never really gotten going as he's dealt with injuries that have kept him out of the starting rotation and even when he has been able to pitch, he's been limited. He's made only three starts since the beginning of June and none since June 24th. Since winning Woo's first six outings this season, the Mariners have now lost his last two. As I mentioned, Anderson was recently named to the American League All-Star team. He should be happy to be facing the Mariners on Friday, noting that he has held current Seattle hitters to 13-for-52 (.250) at the plate with an OPS of .618. No current Mariners hitter has recorded a home run against the left-hander. Last night's game turned out to be a throw-away for the Angels as it got out of hand early. I'm confident we'll see the Halos show some pride and get back in the win column on Friday, snapping the Mariners winning streak in the process. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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07-12-24 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners bats exploded for 11 runs in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday. Bryan Woo will return to the mound for Seattle. He hasn't pitched since June 24th. Note that his three starts in June totalled just 18 runs. In limited action this season (eight starts), Woo has posted a 2.73 FIP and 0.69 WHIP. He'll be facing an Angels club that ranks 29th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven and 14 days. While the Mariners offense has been heating up, it ranks just 24th in baseball in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching this season. And Angels southpaw starter (recently named as an American League All-Star selection) has held current Seattle hitters to just 13-for-52 (.250) at the plate with a .618 OPS. Both bullpens are in excellent shape following last night's lopsided affair. On a night where the temperature is expected to hover in the 70's with light winds in Anaheim, we'll confidently back the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-24 | Dodgers +133 v. Phillies | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Dodgers to bounce back on Thursday and we're getting a generous price to back them. While Philadelphia has prevailed in back-to-back games, it continues a cool-down period offensively. Note that the Phillies rank 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days - a far cry from what we had seen in the weeks and months prior. For their part, the Dodgers check in 14th in wOBA over the same stretch and third against right-handed pitching this season (which they'll be facing in Aaron Nola on Thursday). Nola has been good but not great this season, logging a 3.81 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. He owns a 3.61 ERA at home compared to 3.33 on the road. Nola has also been tagged for 10 of his 16 home runs allowed here at Citizens Bank Park (11 additional innings). Current Los Angeles hitters are 43-for-162 off of Nola with an OPS of .766. Note that Shohei Ohtani has never faced Nola. Rookie Landon Knack will counter for the Dodgers. He certainly hasn't been as good as his 2.86 ERA indicates as he has posted a 4.96 FIP but also an impressive 0.98 WHIP. In three road starts, Knack has recorded a 2.30 ERA. Behind Knack is a Dodgers bullpen that should have all hands on deck on Thursday. They did use four relievers in last night's contest but none of them threw more than 16 pitches, nor have any of them pitched in back-to-back games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-10-24 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Nationals late rally fell just short in a 7-5 defeat at the hands of the Mets. I expect more of the same on Wednesday. The weather forecast should be music to the ears of the hitters with the wind blowing out briskly to left-center and the temperature hovering around 80 degrees. Washington's offense has been terrific lately, ranking sixth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. While New York has cooled off at the plate, it still checks in fourth in baseball in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching this season and it will face one of its favorite punching bags in Patrick Corbin on Wednesday. Note that current Mets hitters are 69-for-221 (.312) off of Corbin with a terrific .926 OPS. Luis Severino will counter for New York. Previously thought to perhaps be a selling chip at the trade deadline, he has struggled over his last couple of outings, allowing 11 earned runs on 17 hits over 13 innings of work. Of course, with the Mets in the thick of the N.L. Wild Card hunt, he's unlikely to be going anywhere. I like the fact that both of these veteran starters have a tendency to work deep into ball games - for better or worse. On a night where the ball should once again be jumping all over Citi Field, we'll back the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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07-10-24 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Phillies crushed the Dodgers in the opener of this series last night, welcoming back Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, even if those two weren't responsible for much of the damage (Schwarber did have two RBI). I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. The weather will support the hitters once again on Wednesday with warm, humid conditions (the feel-like temperature is expected to be in the 90's for much of the night) and the wind blowing out to left field. Gavin Stone will get the start for Los Angeles. I've been fairly high on Stone and he's just one start removed from a complete game shutout (that came against the lowly White Sox). For the most part, he has struggled lately, however, not all that surprising as he approaches 100 innings pitched on the season (he threw only 31 big league innings in his rookie campaign last year). Current Phillies hitters haven't seen a lot of Stone, but what they have seen, they've liked, going 8-for-20 with a 1.005 OPS. Left-hander Cris Sanchez will counter for Philadelphia. The Dodgers check in best in baseball in weighted on base average against southpaw pitching this season and a respectable eighth in overall wOBA over the last seven days. We can confidently project a solid bounce-back performance at the plate here. Sanchez has been impressive this season but I've been waiting for the wheels to fall off and we saw signs of that in his last outing as he was tagged for seven earned runs over four innings in a 10-2 loss to the Cubs. Take the over (8*). |
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07-10-24 | Twins -150 v. White Sox | 1-3 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins caught a break with last night's game getting rained out as their bullpen was in ragged shape entering that contest (Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Josh Staumont all figured to be unavailable after working the previous two days). Now with a much needed night off behind them, we'll look for the Twins to continue their winning ways in the front half of Wednesday's double-header in Chicago. Bailey Ober gets the start for Minnesota. He's not a front-of-the-rotation starter by any means but has fared well against current White Sox hitters, holding them to 25 hits in 99 at-bats and a .661 OPS. I expect Ober to receive plenty of support here, noting that Minnesota ranks best in baseball in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Erick Fedde will counter for Chicago. Current Twins hitters haven't seen a ton of Fedde but have had moderate success going 10-for-33 at the dish with a .737 OPS. While Fedde has pitched well as a whole this season, he's been alternating good and bad starts lately and comes off a solid outing in Cleveland. His home numbers have been fantastic this season but he's made just one start in the Windy City since the beginning of June (he gave up four earned runs in six innings in a 4-0 loss to the Dodgers at U.S. Cellular Field on June 26th). The White Sox bats have gone back in the tank lately, dropping to 22nd in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (only two teams have hit fewer home runs over that stretch). Chicago's bullpen isn't all that imposing so the night off doesn't bolster that relief corps as much as it does the Twins. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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07-09-24 | Mariners -1.5 v. Padres | 8-3 | Win | 120 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners got their weekend series with the Blue Jays off to a positive start before dropping consecutive games on Saturday and Sunday. I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Diego for an Interleague series against the Padres on Tuesday. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price against an elite Orioles offense, allowing four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. On the season, he owns a 3.43 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-48 against Gilbert with a putrid .441 OPS. Note that San Diego ranks 17th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, cooling from a recent red hot run at the plate. Rookie Adam Mazur will counter for San Diego. He remains in the starting rotation out of necessity only as things certainly haven't gone well for him at the big league level. Mazur checks in sporting a 5.45 FIP and 1.82 WHIP in six starts this season. Any time we can back the Mariners terrific bullpen when fully rested (they were off Monday), we'll give them strong consideration. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-08-24 | Rockies v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. If you're looking for offensive fireworks on Monday I think you might want to look elsewhere. The Rockies check in ranked 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. They're coming off a 10-1 beatdown against the Royals on Sunday (Colorado did take two of three games in that series). As much as the Rockies would like to bounce back on Monday, they rank 29th in baseball in wOBA on the road. Cincinnati is a miserable 28th in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days and while Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter-friendly venue, the Reds check in 25th in home wOBA this season and 21st in home runs hit at home. While the temperature is expected to be in the 90's at gametime, that's been more than factored into this total in my opinion. The wind isn't expected to be much of a factor, blowing lightly from right to left. While the starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired, that's just par for the course in a matchup between these two teams and neither boasts a true staff ace. Take the under (8*). |
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07-08-24 | Mets v. Pirates -110 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 12:35 pm et on Monday. We'll back the Pirates in Monday's series-finale against the Mets as they send Mitch Keller to the hill against rookie Christian Scott. Scott was recalled for a start last week and now starts on short rest (four days) for the first time in his big league career, and does so after throwing 99 pitches against the Nationals. I don't like the matchup for Scott here as he faces a Pirates club that ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Keller has silenced the Mets bats before, holding their current hitters to just seven hits in 60 at-bats including only two extra base hits (both home runs by Jose Iglesias and Jeff McNeil) and a .434 OPS. New York has cooled off considerably at the plate, dropping to 23rd in wOBA over the last seven days. Both bullpens are in similar shape although it's worth noting that the Mets have three different relievers that have worked in each of the last two days and are likely unavailable here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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07-07-24 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Seattle's offense continues to slumber and doesn't figure to get any better with Julio Rodriguez likely sidelined due to injury (he was slated to get an MRI after leaving yesterday's game). At the time of writing, the Mariners rank 29th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Of course, Toronto hasn't been a lot better in that department. The Jays rank 25th in wOBA over the last seven days. They'll face a tall task in Mariners starter George Kirby on Sunday afternoon. He has posted Cy Young Award caliber numbers so far this season, logging a 2.97 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. Jose Berrios will get the start for the Blue Jays. Current Mariners hitters have gone just 15-for-84 against him including only two extra base hits. The weather conditions figure to favor the pitchers on a relatively cool but sunny afternoon in Seattle, with the wind blowing from left to right at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Take the under (8*). |
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07-06-24 | Royals -170 v. Rockies | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Colorado at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies took the opener of this series last night - their second straight victory. The Royals have been reeling lately but I do look for them to get back in the win column on Saturday. Seth Lugo will get the start for Kansas City. He's been lights out over his last two starts, tossing 12 shutout innings while allowing only six hits, striking out 18 and walking three. On the season, Lugo owns a 3.21 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. Note that the Rockies rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days and 27th over the last 14 days. Austin Gomber will counter for Colorado. He's been generally awful since the beginning of June with the Rockies dropping five of his last six starts. He'll be pitching on only four days' rest on Saturday. The last time we saw him do that he was clubbed for 11 hits and eight earned runs in three innings in a 17-9 loss in Minnesota. If there was a positive to take away from last night's game for the Royals it was that they needed to use only one reliever in the loss. They're set up well in that regard on Saturday at Coors Field. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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07-06-24 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-06-24 | Phillies v. Braves +100 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is one of the early contenders for the National League Cy Young Award and rightfully so as he has logged a 2.85 FIP and 0.99 WHIP through 17 starts. With that being said, he's not invincible, as we saw in his most recent outing as he was tagged for six earned runs on 10 hits over just 4 2/3 innings against the Marlins. Philadelphia actually rallied for a 7-6 victory in that contest but is still just 1-2 in Suarez's last three starts. The Braves are certainly familiar with Suarez, logging a collective 126 at-bats against him (their current hitters that is). Those 126 at-bats have been productive as they've recorded an .819 OPS. Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has been better than his 5.68 ERA indicates as he has posted a 4.01 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP in six big league starts. The Braves have gone just 1-5 in those six games as they've given the rookie three runs or less to work with in all six contests. Note that Atlanta does rank inside the top-10 in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching this season (entering last night's action). Meanwhile the Phillies red hot bats have cooled off slightly, dropping to 16th in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (also entering Friday's action). Take Atlanta (10*). |
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07-05-24 | Orioles -1.5 v. A's | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The A's are coming off a series sweep of the division-rival Angels but I expect them to get snapped back to reality by the Orioles on Friday night. Baltimore is coming off a loss in Seattle yesterday as the Mariners avoided the sweep thanks to a late game offensive surge. I don't think the O's will have such difficulty against an A's club that ranks in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The O's will be in their preferred position on Friday and that's facing a left-handed starter in Hogan Harris. Note that Baltimore ranks fourth in baseball in wOBA vs. southpaw pitching this season. Only the Mets have recorded a better wOBA overall over the last two weeks. Albert Suarez will look to continue his magical season for the O's. Last time out he tossed six innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Rangers, lowering his FIP to 3.29 and his WHIP to 1.25. You could argue that the A's bullpen is in far better shape following consecutive masterful outings from their starters but I'm not sure that it will matter on this occasion as the O's bats should come to life at the Coliseum. Take Baltimore -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-05-24 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 2-14 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Friday. This total has bumped up slightly and that has a lot to do with the weather forecast with temperatures at first pitch expected to be in the high-80's with the wind blowing out to center. We'll go the other way and back the 'under' in what should be a well-pitched affair. Luis Severino will get the start for the visiting Mets. He wasn't at his best in his most recent outing but he was also facing a red hot Astros offense. He still gave up just four earned runs in seven innings in that outing. On the season, Severino has recorded a 3.98 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. Note that he'll be facing a Pirates club that ranks 28th in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Paul Skenes will counter for Pittsburgh. He's obviously been one of the premier pitchers in baseball since getting the call up to the big club. Skenes owns a 2.60 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts to date. The Mets offense has cooled off considerably this week and ranks 19th in wOBA over the last seven days. The Mets bullpen should have all hands on deck for this one after needing only one reliever in yesterday's 1-0 loss in Washington. Pittsburgh's relief corps doesn't boast the same depth but that can be negated by Skenes working deep into this contest, as I'm expecting. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-24 | Rays v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a pair of relatively low-scoring games between these two teams to open this series but I'm looking for a different story to unfold in Thursday's finale at Kauffman Stadium. The weather conditions will be fairly neutral for Thursday's contest but certainly won't favor the pitchers with the wind blowing lightly from left-to-right or even out to right field and temperatures hovering around 80 degrees. In general, Kauffman Stadium has played a little more hitter-friendly this season (for their part, the Royals average 5.1 runs per game at home compared to 3.8 on the road). Zach Eflin will get the start for the Rays. His overall numbers are baffling good this season, largely thanks to his ability to avoid costly walks (he's issued just seven walks all season). Much of his success has come at home, however. On the road he has given up 4, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3 and 4 earned runs over his last seven outings. Current Royals hitters are 12-for-38 (.316) against him including five extra base hits. Alec Marsh will counter for Kansas City. While current Rays hitters haven't seen much of him, going just 3-for-12, all three of those hits went for extra bases. Marsh did pitch well in his most recent outings but those type of starts have been few-and-far-between lately as he has given up three earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts and five or more in three of those. Two of the Royals key relievers, Chris Stratton and John Schreiber, have worked in each of the last two nights and as a result likely aren't available on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
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07-04-24 | Angels +100 v. A's | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The A's have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Angels to salvage Thursday's finale in Oakland. Los Angeles' bats went silent in last night's defeat, allowing A's starter Joey Estes to go the distance for a rare complete game shutout. Today, the Angels will be facing A's left-hander J.P. Sears. Note that Los Angeles has been better against southpaws than righties this season, ranking 11th in the majors in weighted on base average vs. left-handed pitching. Sears owns a 4.89 FIP and 1.31 WHIP this season and the A's are 3-4 in his seven home starts. Roansy Contreras will counter for the Angels. He has served as more of an 'opener' than anything else and isn't likely to work deep into this game on Thursday. He'll be facing an A's club that ranks 27th in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching this season and 20th overall over the last seven days. Los Angeles' bullpen is in fairly good shape with only Carson Fulmer and Matt Moore working in last night's lopsided affair. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-04-24 | White Sox v. Guardians -208 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. With this being a divisional series, the White Sox were never going to simply roll over for the Guardians. After Cleveland eked out a walk-off victory in the opener on Tuesday, Chicago exacted its revenge with a blowout victory last night. I fully expect the Guardians to respond on Thursday. Even if it is against one of baseball's worst teams, this is a key series for Cleveland after dropping three of four games in Kansas City last weekend. Ben Lively is expected to get the start for the Guardians while the White Sox have yet to announce their starter. Cleveland did drop Lively's most recent start but it had little to do with his pitching as he gave up just two earned runs over six innings against Kansas City. Note that the Guardians have yet to lose consecutive Lively starts this season, going 8-5 with him on the hill. There haven't been a lot of smoke and mirrors involved either as Lively has recorded a respectable 4.24 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. Given last night's lopsided result in favor of the White Sox, the Guardians bullpen remains in good shape entering Thursday's contest (keep in mind both teams were off on Monday). This is a situation where the steep price is warranted to back the vastly superior team. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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07-03-24 | Orioles v. Mariners -117 | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Baltimore at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles took the opener of this series last night, handing the Mariners their third straight defeat. I look for Seattle to bounce back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to Logan Gilbert against Dean Kremer of the O's. Gilbert has certainly served the Mariners well when he's taken the mound this season as they've won each of his last four starts and he has allowed just five earned runs in 28 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. On the season, Gilbert owns a solid 3.35 FIP and an outstanding 0.88 WHIP. Current Orioles hitters are just 4-for-20 in limited looks against Gilbert. Kremer will make his return to the O's starting rotation for the first time since May after struggling in rehab outings at the Triple-A level. Current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-55 off of the right-hander but four different players have homered off of him. Despite the .255 batting average, Mariners hitters have recorded a terrific .844 OPS against Kremer. Take Seattle (8*). |
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07-03-24 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on our hands in Chicago on Wednesday and with favorable weather conditions (relatively cool temperatures in the low-70's and the wind blowing lightly from right to left) I'm expecting runs to come at a premium. Zack Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia. He owns a 3.32 FIP and 0.98 WHIP on the season and just to indicate how strong his track record is, that's the highest FIP he's recorded since back in 2019 when he logged a 3.48 FIP. Since giving up eight earned run sin a start in Baltimore on June 16th, Wheeler has held his last two opponents to three earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Shota Imanaga will counter for the Cubs. He also turned in a recent train wreck of a start but bounced back in his most recent outing, allowing just three earned runs on five hits over six frames against the Giants. Imanaga has posted a 3.24 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season. With Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber sidelined, the Phillies offense has cooled somewhat over the last week as they rank 12th in baseball in weighted on base average over that stretch. Of course, the Cubs offense has struggled for much of the campaign and they check in a middling 15th in wOBA over the last week. Take the under (8*). |
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07-03-24 | Padres +132 v. Rangers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 132 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. It may come as a surprise that the Padres rank second in the majors (entering last night's action) in weighted on base average vs. right-handed pitching this season. Coincidentally, they also went into last night's contest ranked third in baseball in wOBA over the last 14 days. Rookie Adam Mazur will be tasked with keeping the Rangers bats at bay on Wednesday. A second-round pick in the 2022 Draft, Mazur is in the Padres starting rotation out of necessity only. While his numbers aren't great by any means, San Diego has had Mazur on a pretty short leash, most recently pulling him after just five innings and 55 pitches in an eventual 9-7 win over the Nationals. In fact, the Padres have won each of Mazur's last two outings even though he didn't last beyond the fifth inning in either of them. I'll certainly give the edge to the Padres bullpen in this game should the latter innings be when proceedings are settled. To be honest, I'm not sure that will be how this one plays out as San Diego should get to Rangers starter Jon Gray early on. Gray is one start removed from tossing six shutout innings against the Royals but followed up that performance by allowing eight earned runs in five innings against the Orioles. In fact, Gray has given up at least eight earned runs in two of his last three starts. Current Padres hitters have worn out Gray throughout his career, going 31-for-87 with 13 extra base hits including six home runs. Manny Machado has blasted four of those long balls. Take San Diego (10*). |
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07-03-24 | Astros -105 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams have split the first two games in this series although the Blue Jays were barely able to make a big lead stand up in last night's victory. I like Houston's chances of answering back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to Ronel Blanco against Yusei Kikuchi of the Jays. Blanco has been a winner for the Astros this season, plain and simple. Houston has gone 11-4 in his 15 previous outings and it all started with a no-hitter against these same Blue Jays back on April 1st. While Blanco didn't have his best stuff last time out, that was against a red hot Mets offense. I look for him to fare considerably better against the feast-or-famine Jays lineup here. Kikuchi hasn't been good lately, or as a whole this season. And the Astros have a pretty good track record against him with their current hitters having gone a combined 25-for-84 including 17 extra base hits. They've tagged seven home runs off the left-hander with Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Jake Meyers all taking him out of the park multiple times in 22 or fewer at-bats (Meyers has only faced him six times). The Astros were able to keep all of their key bullpen arms idle thanks to trailing virtually wire-to-wire last night. Meanwhile, the Jays continue to miss closer Jordan Romano and his stand-in replacement Yimi Garcia due to injury. Take Houston (10*). |
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07-02-24 | White Sox v. Guardians -190 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Guardians are licking their wounds after dropping three of four games in Kansas City. The good news is they had the day off on Monday and will look to regroup and get back on track at home against the lowly White Sox on Tuesday. While Carlos Carrasco doesn't inspire a ton of confidence on the mound for Cleveland, I do like backing the Guardians with a rested bullpen, as is the case here. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more effective group of relievers than that the Guardians possess this season. Should Carrasco struggle, there's still reason for optimism. Chris Flexen is a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter that continues to take his regular turn for the White Sox out of necessity only. The difference is, Chicago doesn't have that elite bullpen to fall back on. This is a true 'get-right' spot for the better team playing at home. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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07-02-24 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. With the temperature forecast to be in the high-80's and the wind blowing out to left-center, we can project Progressive Field to be a hitter's paradise on Tuesday. The starting pitching matchup plays into the hitters' favor as well with Chris Flexen going for the White Sox against Carlos Carrasco of the Guardians. While current Guardians hitters haven't seen a lot of Flexen, what they have, they've liked. Five different Cleveland hitters have faced him at least twice, going a combined 5-for-15. That includes an 0-for-2 from Steven Kwan, who just happens to be one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Flexen owns a 5.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season and for his career, opponents have an OPS of .803. Carrasco was awful for the Mets last season and a return back to Cleveland hasn't provided much of a boost as he's logged a 5.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. Opponents have recorded an .826 OPS against him. While the White Sox have one of baseball's worst offenses, they should be happy to be facing Carrasco on Tuesday noting that current Chicago hitters have gone 22-for-72 (.306) off of him with 10 extra base hits including five home runs. Take the over (10*). |
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07-01-24 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Monday. While it won't be overly warm at the ballpark for Canada Day festivities in Toronto on Monday, the wind will be blowing out to center and this series-opener between the Astros and Blue Jays sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Houston will hand the ball to Hunter Brown. He's admittedly been terrific over his last four starts. But let's keep things in perspective. He still owns a FIP well north of four and a lofty 1.37 WHIP this season. You might not find a more manageable four-start stretch than what Brown just faced, on the road against the Angels, at home against the Tigers, on the road against the White Sox and at home against the Rockies. Note that the Blue Jays rank third in weighted on base average over the last seven days and are still top-10 in that department over the last 14 days as well. Houston's bullpen is in rough shape entering Monday's affair with three key relievers having worked each of the last two days. In fact, the Astros were forced to use seven different relievers in yesterday's ball game after sending four to the mound on Saturday. Yariel Rodriguez will get a spot start for Toronto. He's not likely to work deep into this ball game and like the Astros, the Blue Jays bullpen is entering overworked territory. For his part, Rodriguez hasn't made a smooth transition to the bigs, sporting a 4.84 FIP and 1.92 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work this season. The Astros check in sixth in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days and also sixth in that department against right-handed pitching this season. Take the over (8*). |
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06-30-24 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 9 | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the over between Pittsburgh and Atlanta at 11:35 am et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full analysis returns on Monday. With the forecast temps in the high 80’s and the wind blowing out well back the over with a subpar pitching matchup on deck in Atlanta on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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06-29-24 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Baltimore at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. With temperatures expected to approach 90 degrees and the wind forecast to be blowing out to left field, this game sets up as a potential slugfest. Of course, we saw only three total runs in last night's contest between these two teams with the Orioles prevailing by a 2-1 score. Tonight's starting pitching matchup will feature Michael Lorenzen for the Rangers and rookie Cade Povich for the O's. Lorenzen's 3.04 ERA doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded an inflated 4.70 FIP. Povich will start on short rest (four days) and hasn't fared all that well at the best of times this season, posting a 4.58 FIP in four outings. The Rangers bullpen has been various shades of awful this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's 'pen carried an ERA north of six over the last seven days into last night's affair. Take the over (8*). |
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06-29-24 | Padres v. Red Sox -138 | 11-1 | Loss | -138 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox got drilled in the opener of this series last night but I look for them to bounce back with arguably their best starter taking the ball in Tanner Houck on Saturday. We've been waiting for regression from Padres starter Michael King and this is as good a spot as any with the wind forecast to be blowing out to left on Saturday afternoon in Boston. Look for the Red Sox bats to come alive and deliver a bounce-back win in front of the home faithful. Take Boston (8*). |
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06-29-24 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Cardinals outlasted the Reds 1-0. I expect nothing of the sort on a warm, muggy Saturday afternoon at Busch Stadium, with the wind blowing straight out to center. The pitching matchup features Carson Spiers for the Reds and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. Spiers has made four career big league starts including two this season, allowing at least three earned runs in each. Gray continues to pitch well but I'm willing to take a flyer with a Reds team that has been feast-or-famine from an offensive standpoint lately and comes off the shutout defeat last night. We don't need anything close to a slugfest to cash this ticket and that makes it attractive given the favorable weather conditions. Take the over (8*). |
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06-28-24 | Guardians -118 v. Royals | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Guardians bats went cold in last night's 2-1 defeat to open this series in Kansas City. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Triston McKenzie will get another turn in the starting rotation for the Guardians. His season hasn't gone as planned as he checks in sporting a 4.66 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The fact that he hasn't missed a single turn indicates that the Guardians feel that he is healthy. I do think he has the tools to turn things around and a matchup with the Royals should promote confidence, noting that McKenzie owns a career 7-3 team record against them with a 3.09 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Even if McKenzie struggles again here, the Guardians haven't been afraid to pull him early and their terrific bullpen is in good shape after using only two relievers in last night's game. Keep in mind, the Royals are last in baseball in weighted on base average in both the last 14 and seven days. While McKenzie has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, the Royals are also tied for last in the majors in home runs over the last couple of weeks. Alex Marsh will counter for Kansas City. He couldn't even make it through the third inning in his lone previous start against the Guardians this season. While Marsh has mixed in a few terrific outings this season, the majority of those came earlier in the season. He's allowed 24 earned runs over his last six starts, covering a span of 32 2/3 innings. The Royals have one of baseball's least reliable bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 12 blown. The weather conditions don't figure to aid either pitching staff on Friday with warm temperatures expected and the wind blowing out to left-center. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-28-24 | Pirates v. Braves -165 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Pittsburgh at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves are coming off a 1-0 loss in a rescheduled game against the White Sox in Chicago yesterday. While their offense was non-existent in that contest, I expect them to experience no such difficulty in Friday's date with the Pirates. Martin Perez will make his return to the Buccos starting rotation. Things haven't gone well for the veteran left-hander this season as he has posted a 4.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 57 1/3 innings of work. He'll be up against a Braves club that ranks top-10 in the majors in weighted on base average at home this season. Not only that but current Braves hitters have had success against Perez, hitting a collective .279 with a .775 OPS in 68 previous at-bats. Charlie Morton will be looking to bounce back from a poor outing in the Bronx for the Braves. He's been alternating good and bad starts and should be in line for a positive performance here, noting that current Pirates hitters are just 11-for-53 (.208) off of him with an OPS of .691. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in baseball in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens should have 'all hands on deck' for this series opener but we'll give the considerable edge to the Braves in that department. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season (entering yesterday's action) while Pittsburgh's has logged a 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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06-27-24 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. We fell just short with the total in this game last night as seven runs were scored in the first five innings but none the rest of the way. I don't expect to suffer the same fate on Thursday. Chicago will hand the ball to Shota Imanaga. After a red hot start to his big league career, he's been shaky in recent outings, allowing at least seven earned runs twice in his last five starts. He's given up seven home runs over that stretch and that's notable as the wind is forecast to be blowing out to left-center at AT&T Park on a pleasant Thursday afternoon. Jordan Hicks will counter for San Francisco. Like Imanaga, he's run into a rough patch lately, allowing 14 earned runs over his last five outings. The biggest problem for the Giants might not be Hicks but instead an overworked bullpen. The majority of San Francisco's relief arms have been pressed into duty over the last two nights with Tyler Rogers and closer Camilo Doval working both (and likely unavailable on Thursday). Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-24 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. I think we're in for a high-scoring game at AT&T Park on Wednesday night. The starting pitching matchup will feature a battle of Hayden's - Wesneski for the Cubs and Birdsong for the Giants. In the case of Birdsong, he'll be making his big league debut. While he is a highly-touted prospect he's not a blue-chipper by any means, drafted in the sixth round, 196th overall. The Cubs have been waiting for an opportunity to bust out at the plate and I feel this is a favorable spot. Both starters will be contending with the weather conditions in this one with a strong wind forecast to be blowing out toward McCovey Cove in right field. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. The Cubs relief corps has posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven days while the Giants 'pen has recorded a 4.55 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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06-26-24 | Yankees v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Yankees and Mets at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw 16 runs in the opener of this two-game Subway Series last night and I expect another high-scoring affair on Wednesday. The hitting conditions figure to be favorable again in this one with substantial winds blowing out to left and temperatures in the low-80s. Luis Gil will get the start for the Yankees. He was rocked in his most recent start and now faces a red hot Mets lineup. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team hitting as well as the Mets right now as they've produced seven more runs in five of their last eight games. Sean Manaea figures to be in the wrong place at the wrong time for the Mets. The left-hander faces a potent Yankees lineup that fell just short in last night's rally. He owns a 4.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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06-26-24 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams combined for 18 hits and 12 runs in last night's ball game at Angel Stadium and I expect more of the same on Wednesday afternoon. We have a subpar starting pitching matchup on tap with Joey Estes going for the A's and Roansy Contreras for the Angels. Estes remains in the Oakland starting rotation out of necessity only while Contreras is only getting a spot start and doesn't figure to work deep into the contest. The weather supports our play with warm afternoon temperatures forecast in Anaheim with the wind blowing straight out to center. Take the over (8*). |
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06-26-24 | Marlins v. Royals -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Marlins eked out a 2-1 victory over the Royals last night, evening this series at a game apiece entering Wednesday's rubber match. I like Kansas City's chances of securing a comfortable victory in this one. Valente Bellozo is slated to get his first big league start for the Marlins. He has posted respectable numbers at the Double-A level this season but didn't fare so well when levelling up to Triple-A, recording a 5.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings of work. Bellozo has been toiling around the Minors since 2018, never getting the call to the big club so while this is a huge game for him, I don't expect the Royals - desperate to break out of their funk at the plate - will take it easy on him. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.12 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 3.04 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. While the Marlins did get the win last night, it had little to do with their offensive production. In a game they'll likely have to patch together on the mound, I suspect they'll need to score a lot more to stay competitive. The problem is they rank 29th in baseball in weighted on-base average this season (only the White Sox are worse). Royals roll. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-26-24 | Mariners -114 v. Rays | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Tampa Bay at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners are mired in an extended slump right now but have the right pitcher on the mound to help avoid a series sweep in St. Petersburg on Wednesday. George Kirby gets the start. The right-hander finished sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting two years ago and was an All-Star and finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season. He's arguably having an even better season here in 2024 having logged a 3.16 FIP and 0.99 WHIP through 16 starts. In three career outings against the Rays, Kirby has posted a 2.79 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Ryan Pepiot will counter for Tampa Bay. He's had an up-and-down season so far but it's been mostly down lately as he checks in having allowed seven earned runs over his last two starts covering a span of just eight innings. Walks and home runs have been an issue for the right-hander and this sets up as a difficult matchup in that regard as the Mariners sit inside the top-10 in baseball in both home runs and walk percentage. There's no real advantage in this game as far as the bullpens are concerned but I will point out the fact that the Mariners have a number of key relievers that got the night off last night including Austin Voth, Trent Thornton, Ryne Stanek and closer Andres Munoz. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-25-24 | Guardians v. Orioles -133 | 10-8 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Cleveland at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. While it may only be a Tuesday in late-June, this is a big game for the Orioles as they look to stop the bleeding and snap out of their four-game slide. Last night's series-opener between these two teams could have gone either way. Guardians starter Tanner Bibee settled in after some early missteps and the bullpen took care of the rest in a 3-2 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as Logan Allen and his 5.52 FIP and 1.48 WHIP takes the ball for the visitors. Allen will be pitching on short rest (four days) and that's notable as the last time we saw him do that he was lit up for seven earned runs over 1 2/3 innings in Colorado on May 29th. Cole Irvin will take the ball for Baltimore. He's coming off a couple of shaky outings but has been quietly having a good year with the O's, logging a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP through 14 appearances including 12 starts. Baltimore owns an incredible 17-5 record in Irvin's last 22 starts going back to last season. Both bullpens are in similar shape entering this contest. While the Guardians relief corps would appear to hold an edge based on full season numbers, I'm confident it will be the O's pitching with a lead late in this one. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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06-24-24 | Marlins v. Royals -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. This game should serve as a 'slump-buster' for the Royals offense as they look to tee off on the Marlins pitching staff on a night where the temperature is expected to approach or eclipse 100 degrees while the wind blows out to left-center. Roddery Munoz will get the start for the Marlins. He hasn't just been bad this season, he's been downright awful, sporting a 7.46 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in six starts. The Royals rank second in baseball in team OPS at home this season, trailing only the Astros in that category. Cole Ragans owns a stellar 2.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including one complete game. While he hasn't had his best stuff in recent outings, he's still hung in there to go at least six innings in four straight starts. Note that the Marlins rank last (30th) in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. While the Marlins were forced to use four relievers in yesterday's game, the Royals deployed only two relief arms for a combined 27 pitches. This will be an 'all hands on deck' situation for the Kansas City 'pen but I project things to be out of hand by that point anyway. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-24-24 | Guardians v. Orioles -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Cleveland at 6:35 pm et on Monday. While the starting pitching matchup may appear to favor the Guardians heavily in this game, there are other reasons why the Orioles check in as a favorite as they lick their wounds following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros. Cleveland is coming off a sweep of the Blue Jays at home but Sunday's come-from-behind victory did come at a cost as it used five relievers including closer Emmanuel Clase for a second straight day. He and impressive rookie Cade Smith figure to be unavailable for this one after working consecutive games. Despite dropping all three games in Houston, Baltimore continues to hit well, ranking fourth in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days. Cleveland sits just behind it in fifth. I like the aggressiveness the O's have shown on the basepaths recently with only one team stealing more bases over the last week. In a similar vein, only one team has recorded more hits than the O's over the same stretch. Weather could be the great equalizer in terms of Monday's pitching matchup. While Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee obviously boasts a stronger resume than O's rookie Cade Povich, it looks like a favorable night for pitchers at Camden Yards with a strong wind blowing in from left-center and the temperatures in the low-80's. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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06-23-24 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have taken turns beating up on each other in the first two games of this series but I'm anticipating a tighter, lower-scoring affair on Sunday. The forecast is calling for relatively cool temperatures in the high-60's with the wind blowing lightly from left to right. Those are favorable conditions for the pitchers in the month of June in Chicago. Luis Severino will take the ball for New York. He got roughed up in his most recent start but outings like that have been few and far between this season. Prior to that start in Texas Severino had allowed just two earned runs over his previous two starts, covering a span of 14 innings. On the season he owns a 4.18 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. Note that current Cubs hitters are a combined 3-for-27 off of Severino with no extra-base hits. Javier Assad will counter for Chicago. Like Severino, he has had success, albeit in a limited sample size, against tonight's opponent. Current Mets hitters are 5-for-29 off of him with no extra base hits. Assad isn't a candidate to work deep into the ball game but has held three of his last four opponents to two runs or less and owns a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.25 WHIP on the campaign. Both bullpens are in excellent shape thanks to the lopsided nature of the first two games in this series. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-24 | Orioles +114 v. Astros | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. This series hasn't gone the Orioles way but they can salvage something from it with a victory on Sunday afternoon and I like their chances of accomplishing just that. Baltimore continues to produce offensively, ranked fourth in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days and second over the last 15 days. The Astros, despite their success at the plate in this series, still sit 17th in in baseball in team OPS over the last seven days. Facing Framber Valdez should bring smiles to the faces of Orioles hitters as they've gone a combined 20-for-61 off of him with six extra base hits including four home runs (by four different players). Valdez has put together a few good starts recently but certainly hasn't reached the heights that saw him finish fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting two years ago and ninth last season, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 12 starts so far in 2024. Albert Suarez will start for Baltimore and he'll be seeing all of the current Astros hitters for the first time in his career. He has of course been a terrific story here in 2024, returning to the big leagues for the first time in seven years and finding success in the O's starting rotation. Suarez owns a 3.06 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 15 outings including eight starts this season. The Orioles bullpen is in terrific shape with all hands on deck so to speak after using only one reliever (Bryan Baker) in yesterday's contest. Meanwhile, the Astros depth-shy relief corps is reaching overworked territory with each of its arms having worked two out of the last three games. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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06-22-24 | Braves v. Yankees -137 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Yankees as they look to snap out of their funk after getting manhandled by Chris Sale and the Braves in the series-opener last night. New York should be happy to be facing Braves veteran right-hander Charlie Morton on Saturday. Current Yankees hitters are 45-for-145 (.310) off of him with seven home runs (Juan Soto has three in 11 at-bats). Morton has been alternating good and bad starts for much of the season and is coming off a good one last Saturday against the Rays. In two of his last four outings he has failed to last six innings and has given up at least four earned runs. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for New York. Like Morton, he's been alternating good and bad starts and comes off a poor one against the Red Sox last Sunday. The Yankees do seem to like hitting for him, leading them to a 10-5 record with Stroman on the hill this season. Note that he has posted a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts with the Yanks winning eight of those games. The Yankees bullpen is well-positioned on Saturday after Yoendrys Gomez gave them 78 pitches in relief in last night's blowout defeat. Take New York (10*). |
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06-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -223 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll lay the wood with the Phillies in this bounce-back spot on Saturday. Not only is it a rebound spot for the team in general, but ace Zack Wheeler gave up eight earned runs in his most recent start (against one of the best offenses in baseball in Baltimore). He'll start on full rest (five days) on Saturday and still owns a 3.48 FIP and 1.01 WHIP on the season and has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a .239 batting average in 134 career at-bats. On a hot day in Philadelphia with the winds blowing straight out, D'Backs struggling starter Tommy Henry figures to be in trouble. He puts a ton of men on base (62-of-163 batters he has faced this season to be precise). The Phillies couldn't take advantage of their many scoring opportunities last night but will today. Also note that Arizona's bullpen is one of the most depth-shy in baseball and used four different relievers last night (two of them have worked each of the last two days and figure to be unavailable on Saturday). We don't love laying an extra run with home teams as the math simply doesn't add up, but we will stick our neck out with the steep price on the Phils here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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06-21-24 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Padres prevailed by a 7-6 score. I'm anticipating runs to come at a premium in Friday's rematch, however. Colin Rea will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been serviceable for the Brewers, particularly of late as he checks in having allowed just four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings of work over his last three starts. Dylan Cease starts for San Diego. He's coming off his worst outing of the season as he was tagged for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Mets. We'll call for him to bounce back here as he still sports a terrific 3.32 FIP and 1.07 WHIP on the campaign. Current Brewers hitters are a miserable 5-for-48 off of Cease with only two extra base hits and no home runs. Both bullpens got a real workout last night and there will be some arms that are unavailable on Friday. That keeps us from going heavier on this play but I do think the two starters can work deep enough into this ball game to keep the final score low. Take the under (8*). |
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06-21-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Diamondbacks series in Washington fizzled offensively with all three games staying 'under' despite favorable hitting conditions in the nation's capital. I expect a different story to unfold this weekend in Philadelphia. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90's with the wind blowing out to center throughout Friday's contest. We'll call for a high-scoring affair. The starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired with two of the most disappointing starters in baseball this season on the bump in Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker. A big get for the D'Backs in free agency, Montgomery has logged a 4.48 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Current Phillies hitters are 8-for-28 off of the left-hander. Walker owns a 5.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in nine outings this season. Current D'Backs hitters are 26-for-94 off of him. Note that these two offenses rank right up there among the best in baseball over the last seven days with the D'Backs checking in eighth and the Phillies ninth in the majors in team OPS. Take the over (8*). |
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06-21-24 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. This play sets up nicely with both teams coming off off days on Thursday (meaning both bullpens will have all hands on deck). That's not to mention the favorable weather forecast for pitchers with the wind blowing in lightly and relatively cool temperatures expected. Jose Quintana will get the start for the Mets. After a rocky start to the season he's shown signs of turning things around, most recently allowing just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the Padres. Likely a useful trade deadline piece, Quintana will look to continue to improve on his lofty 5.16 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. Current Cubs hitters are just 16-for-60 off of him. Shota Imanaga will counter for Chicago. He was terrific again in his most recent start, yielding only one earned run on four hits over seven innings in a 5-1 win over the Cardinals. Imanaga has posted Cy Young Award caliber numbers in his first big league season, sporting a 2.76 FIP and 0.99 WHIP through 13 starts. Current Mets hitters are just 3-for-17 off of him with no extra base hits. As I mentioned, both bullpens are in good shape following an off day. Expect runs to come at a premium on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Take the under (8*). |
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06-20-24 | Royals -150 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. The betting markets are obviously a little spooked by the Royals right now as they're laying a considerably lower price than we saw in last night's contest - a game they lost 5-1. Kansas City has now dropped eight of its last 10 games. The last time they won a game - this past Saturday in Los Angeles - Seth Lugo was on the mound. He'll take the ball again on Thursday and I look for a similar result. Winning on the road is nothing new with Lugo on the hill. The Royals are 7-1 in his eight road outings this season. That hasn't been any sort of fluke either as Lugo has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.89 WHIP away from home. He has given up only three home runs in 54 road innings this season. Mitch Spence will get the call for the A's. The rookie right-hander owns a solid 3.35 FIP and 1.21 WHIP this season. I like the fact that the Royals will be seeing him for a second time after delivering a 6-2 home victory back in May. Spence has allowed 23 hits in his last three starts, covering a span of 18 2/3 innings and has topped out at four strikeouts in a game this season. The A's figure to be without two key bullpen arms for this one after Austin Adams and Mason Miller both worked each of the last two nights. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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06-20-24 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen three straight high-scoring games in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday. While the weather conditions are expected to favor the hitters with the temperature approaching 90 degrees and the wind blowing out moderately to right-center, I look for today's starting pitchers to navigate the conditions. Gavin Stone has been terrific for the Dodgers, recording a 3.62 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts. His emergence has been welcome with so many injuries in Los Angeles' starting rotation. Current Rockies are just 3-for-15 off of Stone with only one extra base hit (a Charlie Blackmon double). Ty Blach will counter for Colorado. While I'm not about to sing Blach's praises as he is a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, I will point out that current Dodgers hitters are just 21-for-96 off of him with only two home runs. Blach has faced the Dodgers nine times over the course of his career with none of those games totalling more than 10 runs and eight of them reaching six runs or less. Each team used only three bullpen arms in last night's contest so despite the wild nature of this series so far, we're not talking about two depleted relief corps'. Take the under (8*). |
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06-20-24 | Rays v. Twins -123 | 7-6 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rays evened this series at a game apiece with a 3-2 win in extra innings last night. I look for the Twins to bounce back on Thursday afternoon. Zack Littell will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He posted terrific numbers early in the campaign but the sample size was simply too small. He's already approaching his career high in big league innings in a season and we haven't even flipped the calendar over to July yet. Littell's FIP has risen to 3.63 (career 4.25) and WHIP to 1.38 (career 1.30). Current Twins are just 6-for-26 off of him but no player has more than five at-bats, so again a very small sample size at play. Simeon Woods-Richardson will counter for Minnesota. He didn't have his best command in his most recent start but the Twins still won that game 6-5 at home. Minnesota is now 4-0 in Woods-Richardson's four home outings this season where he has allowed only one home run in 20 innings of work. No current Rays hitter has seen the right-hander before. Both bullpens are in similarly poor shape for this one following last night's extra innings affair. Minnesota's 'pen has been better overall this season, however, noting it has successfully closed out 23 games while blowing only eight compared to Tampa Bay's 22:14 save ratio. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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06-19-24 | Royals -1.5 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals have lost three of Cole Ragans' last four starts but that's been little fault of his as he continues to pitch well having recorded a 2.63 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts (including a complete game) this season. Note that current A's are a collective 2-for-35 off of Ragans. Luis Medina will counter for Oakland. He's been awful in his last two outings, seeing his FIP rise to 4.26 and his WHIP to 1.50. Other than Adam Frazier, the Royals will be getting their first look at Medina but that hasn't stopped other teams from teeing off on him in similar situations. We've seen regression from both bullpens lately. I like the Royals here noting that Ragans has consistently been able to work deep into ball games, giving that 'pen a break. Ragans has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine outings. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-19-24 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 7-3 | Win | 102 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The ball has been jumping all over the park at Rogers Centre this week, perhaps for the first time this season as temperatures rise in Toronto. With warm conditions, along with the wind forecast to be blowing out to right field, we'll anticipate a high-scoring affair on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more disappointing starting pitcher than Brayan Bello this season. Many entered the season with high expectations for the right-hander but he's fallen well short of those with a 4.72 FIP and 1.40 WHIP through 12 starts. With a number of Blue Jays having hit him hard in the past, we'll count on Toronto to produce offensively after dropping the first two games in this series. The Red Sox rank second in the majors, behind only the Twins, in team OPS over the last seven days. Like the Blue Jays against Bello, the Red Sox have had previous success against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman. The veteran right-hander has been a mixed-bag this season with a 3.39 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. One thing is Gausman has been consistently bad at Rogers Center, recording a 6.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in seven starts. Both bullpens come in on the overworked side. Already without closer Jordan Romano, the Blue Jays are missing his replacement, Yimi Garcia, due to injury as well. Meanwhile, Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen has worked each of the last two games and figures to be unavailable tonight. Take the over (8*). |
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06-19-24 | Mariners v. Guardians -126 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians dropped the opener of this series last night but I look for them to answer back on Wednesday. Bryan Woo was forced to miss his last start, bad timing after he had been lights out in consecutive outings. I can't help but feel that may have thrown him out of rhythm as he returns to the mound to face the Guardians on the road on Wednesday. Tanner Bibee has been quietly terrific this season, logging a 3.52 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 14 starts. Incredibly, those numbers are almost identical to his career starts over 39 big league outings. We know the Guardians possess one of the best bullpens in baseball and while their relief corps was pushed to the limit in last night's contest, the good news is, Cleveland was off on Monday so the damage was minimal and most arms should be available on Wednesday. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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06-19-24 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. Hot temperatures approaching 100 degrees will be accompanied by the wind blowing out to left in Wednesday's contest between the Diamondbacks and Nationals in Washington. That combined with the pitching matchup should result in a high-scoring affair. Brandon Pfaadt gets the start for Arizona. He gave up just one earned run over six innings in his last start, ending a miserable stretch on the mound. Keep in mind, he still allowed nine of 26 batters to reach base in that contest. In eight road starts this season, Pfaadt has recorded an ERA north of five. Patrick Corbin will counter for Washington. We know what we're going to get from Corbin and so do the Nationals at this point. Whether he pitches well or poorly, they're going to leave him in to eat some innings. On the season he has posted a 5.14 FIP and 1.62 WHIP. Current D'Backs hitters have gone 27-for-96 (.281) off of him. Note that Arizona ranks in the top five in team OPS over the last seven days. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately. Entering last night's action, the D'Backs relief corps had posted a 4.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven days while the Nats 'pen had recorded a 4.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Take the over (8*). |
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06-18-24 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 11-9 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers controlling proceedings to notch their second straight victory. On a relatively cool night in Denver, with the wind blowing in from right field, we'll call for a lower-scoring contest on Tuesday. Walker Buehler gets the start for Los Angeles. It hasn't been a smooth road back from injury for the right hander as he has recorded a 5.54 FIP and 1.46 WHIP in seven starts so far this season. The 'under' has still gone 5-2 with Buehler on the hill as the Dodgers haven't given him all that long of a leash. The good news on Tuesday is that Los Angeles should have all of its relievers at its disposal after only using J.P. Feyereisen in last night's contest. The Dodgers 'pen has been lights out this season, sporting a collective 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP (entering last night's action). Left-hander Austin Gomber will take the ball for Colorado. He should be happy to be back home after making each of his last five starts on the road. Note that Gomber owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at Coors Field this season. While current dodgers hitters have gone 22-for-72 off of Gomber they've managed just six extra-base hits. Of his seven career starts against Los Angeles, only two went 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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06-18-24 | Orioles v. Yankees -144 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a big spot for the Yankees after they dropped back-to-back games against the Red Sox in Boston over the weekend. I like their chances of rebounding as they open a series with the Orioles on Tuesday. Albert Suarez gets the start for Baltimore. He'll be tasked with slowing a Yankees offense that ranks tops in baseball in team OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season (and it's not particularly close). Suarez has posted a terrific 2.79 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season but there's a reason he wasn't on a big league staff from 2018 to 2023. Nestor Cortes was probably fortunate to avoid facing the Red Sox over the weekend as they've had his number in recent years. It's a different story with the Orioles as their current hitters are just 30-for-139 off of Cortes with only eight extra base hits. Cortes enters this start with a 3.76 FIP and 1.12 WHIP on the season. He's been lights out at home, sporting a 1.77 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in seven outings. Take New York (8*). |
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06-18-24 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. We're looking at almost a carbon-copy of last night in Philadelphia weather-wise on Tuesday with the temperature eclipsing 90 degrees and the wind blowing out to left-center. We saw plenty of runs on the board in the series opener and I expect more of the same in Game 2. Michael King gets the start for the Padres. He'll need to eat some innings in this game as the San Diego bullpen has been extremely overworked lately. King struck out 12 A's in his most recent start but still gave up a couple of runs and needed 98 pitches to get through five innings. He owns a pedestrian 4.16 FIP and 1.23 WHIP on the season. Current Phillies hitters have ripped King for 12 hits in 34 at-bats including five extra-base hits. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He gave up eight earned runs on 11 hits in only 3 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his most recent start. Nola still owns a 3.97 FIP and 1.08 WHIP on the season. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) and it's worth noting that he did need 90 pitches to get through those 3 2/3 innings last time out. Current Padres hitters are batting just .252 against Nola but have had plenty of looks with five different players getting in double-digit at-bats against him and nine of the 11 that have faced him recording multiple hits. Take the over (8*). |
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06-17-24 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. With the wind blowing out to left-center on a hot but clear night in Chicago, we'll call for plenty of runs in the opener of this series between the Giants and Cubs. Jordan Hicks will get the start for San Francisco. With a depleted bullpen after getting overworked over the weekend, the Giants will be counting on Hicks to go deep into this ball game but I'm not sure it's in the cards. Note that Hicks has labored through his last three outings, allowing 24-of-64 batters he has faced to reach base. While the Cubs bats have been quiet lately, I do consider them to be a 'sleeping giant' in that regard and a matchup with the struggling Hicks should serve them well. Chicago will hand the ball to Javier Assad. He got off to a fine start this season but like Hicks, has struggled lately. Assad has lasted no more than 5 2/3 innings in five straight starts. Over that stretch, he allowed six home runs in just 25 1/3 innings of work. We're seeing Assad slowly work back toward his career average in terms of FIP and WHIP (career marks of 4.21 and 1.27, respectively). The Cubs bullpen is in better shape than that of the Giants on paper, but note that Chicago's relief corps has logged a pedestrian 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (entering yesterday's action) with only 16 saves converted and 14 blown. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-24 | Royals v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The weather conditions will once again favor the hitters on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center. We won with the 'over' last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. After getting off to a terrific start this season he has labored through his recent starts with his FIP rising to 3.72 and hiw WHIP to 1.23 - both approaching his career averages. Current Dodgers haven't seen much of Singer but have had success, going 11-for-37. Tyler Glasnow will counter for Los Angeles. He struck out 12 batters but also gave up five earned runs in his most recent outing against the Yankees. Current Royals hitters are actually 10-for-36 off of him. The Dodgers bullpen has been overworked over the last week and finds itself needing Glasnow to work deep into Sunday's game to give it a break. While the Royals 'pen hasn't been as taxed, I'm not all that high on their relief corps. Take the over (8*). |
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06-16-24 | Angels v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Yesterday's game couldn't quite get to the posted total as the Giants bats went quiet late in a 4-3 Angels victory. They'll need to bounce back at the plate on Sunday with left-hander Kyle Harrison facing the Angels, who rank fourth in the majors in team OPS vs. southpaws this season and third in team OPS over the last seven days. Both bullpens are relatively taxed right now, even if they have the majority of their arms at their disposal. On an afternoon where the wind is forecast to be blowing out to right-center, we'll call for plenty of runs on the board. Ben Joyce gets the start for Los Angeles. He's made 16 big league appearances going back to last season but this will be his first career start. He owns a 5.27 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings of relief. Joyce will likely pitch only an inning or two here in an 'opener' role. Harrison has been a mixed bag for the Giants this season with a 3.94 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. He is coming off one of his better outings of the season as he held the Astros to one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. Prior to that he had given up four earned runs or more in three straight starts. The left-hander has really struggled in five daytime outings, recording a 5.25 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-24 | Padres -1.5 v. Mets | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a flyer on the Padres laying the extra run at a generous return on Sunday afternoon in Queens. San Diego's offense has been awful in this series but is in line for a bounce-back here as it faces back-of-the-rotation starter Tylor Megill. The Mets right-hander sports an impressive 2.68 FIP this season but he's only made five starts and that number is due in large part to the fact that he's allowed only one home run to date. I do think regression is coming in that regard, noting that for his career he has given up 1.4 home runs per nine innings. In two starts this month, Megill has been tagged for 12 hits and seven earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. Note that the Padres, while dormant in this series so far, do rank sixth in the majors in day game OPS this season. They're also seventh in road OPS. Dylan Cease was brought to San Diego for starts like this as he looks to turn his team's fortunes around. Cease has been terrific in 14 starts this season, sporting a 3.02 FIP and 1.00 WHIP. Current Mets hitters are just 7-for-31 off of him with only two extra-base hits (both home runs off the bat of Francisco Lindor). I like the way the Padres bullpen is set up for this game with only four different relievers having pitched in the last three days. New York's relief corps has been taxed lately, not having benefited from an off day on Thursday like San Diego. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-15-24 | Royals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. This sets up as one of the better starting pitchers on Saturday's MLB board, on paper at least. I expect the game to play out a little different on the field, certainly different than last night's low-scoring 4-3 result in favor of the Dodgers. Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Royals. He has terrific overall numbers this season but has fallen off a bit lately, allowing nine earned runs on 14 hits including two home runs over his last two outings. On a night where the wind will be blowing out to center and facing a Dodgers lineup that has had some success against him, I look for Lugo to labor through this outing. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will counter for Los Angeles. He's been lights out this season, most recently tossing seven shutout innings against the Yankees in the Bronx last Friday. It is worth noting, however, that the Royals rank fourth in the majors in team OPS at night this season and also sit inside the top-10 in team OPS on the road. While the Dodgers bullpen only needed to use two pitchers last night, their stable of arms have still been overworked over the last several days. The Royals 'pen is in better shape in that regard but I'm by no means high on their relief corps (4.31 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 18 saves converted and 10 blown this season). Take the over (8*). |
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06-15-24 | Padres +107 v. Mets | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night, notching their third victory in a row. I look for that streak to come to an end on Saturday, however. Rookie Adam Mazur will get the start for San Diego. On a pleasant afternoon in Queens, with the wind forecast to be blowing in front left-center, conditions should favor the pitchers and that's music to the ears of the struggling Mazur. This will be his third big league start. The good news is he has allowed just one home run in nine innings of work. The bad news is he has allowed 10 hits and issued seven walks. I don't think San Diego will let Mazur have all that long of a leash in this one noting that it will be all hands on deck in terms of its bullpen with only Adrian Morejon throwing 21 pitches in last night's contest. The wheels have seemingly come off for Jose Quintana of the Mets. His career resurgence has hit a brick wall this season as he has posted a 5.24 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 13 starts. Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machada, Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all homered off of Quintana and only Machado has had more than eight at-bats against him. The Mets bullpen is in rough shape for this one having not benefited from a day off on Thursday like the Padres. Sean Reid-Foley and closer Edwin Diaz figure to be unavailable after working each of the last two nights. Take San Diego (8*). |
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06-15-24 | Reds v. Brewers -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. Despite the close, high-scoring nature of last night's defeat, the Brewers actually handled their bullpen well, using only two relievers in the 6-5 loss. Noting that Milwaukee ranks top-five in both daytime team OPS and home OPS, we'll back it as it looks to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Andrew Abbott will get the start for the visiting Reds. He continues to pitch to his career numbers, logging a 4.64 FIP and 1.19 WHIP so far this season. His walks are down this year but home runs allowed are up and strikeouts are down as well. Current Brewers haven't had a ton of success against him but those overall numbers are skewed by Blake Perkins, Gary Sanchez and Andruw Monasterio going a combined 1-for-20. Willy Adames, William Contreras and Christian Yelich are a combined 10-for-30, each homering off of him. Bryse Wilson starts for Milwaukee. He's held current Reds hitters to just 13 hits in 73 at-bats against him. He's coming off a rough outing in Detroit last weekend but has been serviceable. While few give it much credence, Wilson does own a 6-0 record this year. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-15-24 | Angels v. Giants OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams to open this Interleague series last night and I expect more of the same on Saturday. The winds are forecast to be blowing out to right field on a sun-soaked afternoon in San Francisco. The starting pitching matchup will feature a pair of struggling arms in Patrick Sandoval and Keaton Winn. Sandoval has been a bit of a mixed bag this season with a 3.73 FIP but a 1.47 WHIP. Winn got off to an alright start to the campaign but has fallen apart since, logging a 4.45 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. He's been tagged for a ridiculous 24 earned runs in his last four starts covering a span of 12 2/3 innings. While the Giants bullpen is arguably in better shape entering this game thanks to an off day on Thursday, it did empty its holster so to speak in last night's 8-6 defeat, using five different relievers. Neither bullpen has been all that consistent this season. Take the over (8*). |
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06-15-24 | Guardians v. Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. Note that this total is likely to open at 8.5 once the Blue Jays name their starter (opener). We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night in Toronto (and cashed with the 'under'). The weather conditions were favorable for the pitchers in that contest but I'm not sure that will be the case on Saturday. The roof at Rogers Center will be open on a sunny afternoon in Toronto with relatively cool conditions but the wind blowing out to left-center. Carlos Carrasco gets the start for Cleveland. He hasn't been good this season, checking in with a 4.97 FIP and 1.44 WHIP. He hasn't shown the consistent ability to eat innings this season either and while the Guardians should have all of their bullpen arms at their disposal thanks to an off day on Thursday, it is worth noting that five relievers pitched in last night's game. This figures to be a 'bullpen game' for the Blue Jays with rookie Yariel Rodriguez possibly getting the bulk of the work. Regardless, I like the Guardians chances of generating offense, noting they rank tied for eighth in the majors in team OPS on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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06-14-24 | Guardians v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While Rogers Centre is generally known as a hitter's park, we're not going to see particularly favorable hitting conditions on Friday on a cool but clear night in Toronto with the wind blowing in. Logan Allen will get the start for the Guardians. It's been a 'feast-or-famine' type of season so far for the left-hander but he is coming off a fine outing against the Marlins, allowing just two earned runs in six innings. Note that the Blue Jays rank 26th in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He had his good stuff working last time out as he tossed a complete game shutout against the A's. That effort lowered his season FIP to 3.39 and his WHIP to 1.25. Current Guardians hitters are a combined 11-for-48 off of Gausman with only three extra base hits and no home runs. Both bullpens are in good shape following an off day on Thursday so it will be all hands on deck for this one. Take the under (8*). |
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06-14-24 | Cardinals v. Cubs -110 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 2:20 pm et on Friday. On a day with the wind blowing straight in at Wrigley Field, we'll back the hometown Cubs as they open a series against the rival Cardinals. I'm not sure the wind will be enough to help Cards starter Kyle Gibson. He has been crushed by current Cubs hitters as they've gone 32-for-94 off of the veteran right-hander with six home runs. Gibson has been pretty much on par for his career so far this season, logging a 4.35 FIP and 1.27 WHIP in 13 starts. St. Louis will be facing Cubs starter Jordan Wicks. That's notable as the Cards rank 28th in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. Wicks has been serviceable for the Cubs this season, posting a 3.22 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. Both bullpens are in similar shape entering this contest. With that said, the Cards will likely not have the services of Andrew Kittredge after he worked each of the last two days (and successfully closed out yesterday's win). Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-13-24 | White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This game features one of the better starting pitching matchups on the board with Garrett Crochet going for the White Sox against Luis Castillo of the Mariners. Crochet is firmly planted in the A.L. Rookie of the Year race. In fact, he's posted Cy Young Award caliber numbers so far, logging a 2.75 FIP and 0.93 WHIP through 14 starts. Castillo draws a favorable matchup against the light-hitting White Sox. Current White Sox hitters have gone a combined 15-for-83 with only nine extra-base hits off of Castillo. He'll be pitching on short rest (four days) but threw only 84 pitches in his most recent outing so should be no worse for wear here. While the Mariners bullpen has been solid this season, the White Sox relief corps has been among the worst in baseball. The good news is, Crochet has shown the ability to give them six innings on a regular basis. The Mariners entered last night's action ranked 27th in team OPS at home this season. On a cool night in Seattle with the wind forecast to be blowing in from left-center, I believe the low posted total is warranted. Take the under (8*). |
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06-13-24 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 10.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The situation is ripe for a high-scoring affair between the Yankees and Royals in Kansas City on Thursday afternoon. With the temperature approaching 100 degrees and the wind blowing out to left-center, I'm anticipating plenty of offense. New York will give Nestor Cortes the start. He's been tagged for five home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of just 15 innings. Interestingly, current Royals hitters have liked what they've seen in limited looks at Cortes, going 7-for-19 including two doubles and two home runs. Alec Marsh will be tasked with slowing the red hot Yankees offense. Marsh has been gradually moving back toward his career FIP of 4.95 with that number currently sitting at 4.02 on the season. Like Cortes, Marsh has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park lately, allowing five home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 17 innings. Neither team has had a day off in over a week so as you can imagine, the two bullpens have been taxed. We should see plenty of runs early and late in this series-finale. Take the over (8*). |
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06-13-24 | Nationals v. Tigers -137 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Washington at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Tigers to answer back on Thursday. On a hot, sticky afternoon in Detroit, the conditions figure to favor the hitters, even at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. With that being said, despite his recent struggles, I'll give the edge to Tigers starter Casey Mize over Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. What you see is what you get with Corbin. He's been getting hit hard for years and once again sports a FIP north of five this season. Current Tigers hitters have absolutely raked against him, going 24-for-59 with three different players homering off of him. The bullpen behind Corbin figures to be without a couple of key arms after Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan were called into action in each of the last two nights. Mize has been a mixed bag this season with a 4.12 FIP but a 1.53 WHIP. He should have the advantage here, however, with only one Washington hitter having seen him previously. Note that while the Nats have been clutch at the plate in this series, they still rank 25th in team OPS on the road this season. Take Detroit (8*). |
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06-12-24 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 10.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Monday's series-opener and cashed the 'over' last night. On Wednesday, we'll go back to the well with the 'over' once again as pitching and weather conditions should play a major factor in this one. Much like last night, the wind is forecast to be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday with the temperature sitting well north of 80 degrees. Those conditions favor the hitters but this time around, I expect the Royals to get in on the action. Cody Poteet will get the start for New York. He checks in sporting a 4.35 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work this season. He'll be facing a Royals club that is top-10 in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days. Dan Altavilla will start in an 'opener' role for the Royals. He pitched a scoreless 1-2-3 inning against the Yankees two nights ago in his first big league appearance since 2021. He doesn't figure to factor much into tonight's game, likely to only work an inning or two. The Royals bullpen is always a concern having logged a 4.18 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the season. This could be a game where we see an extended stretch from Daniel Lynch who has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.76 FIP and 1.19 WHIP in four appearances spanning 16 innings this season. Take the over (8*). |
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06-12-24 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | 4-10 | Win | 150 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets were stymied in last night's return from across the pond as they dropped a 4-2 decision against Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins. I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday as they send David Peterson to the hill against Braxton Garrett. Peterson has had one bad start and one good one since returning to the bigs this season. The good news here is that he faces a Marlins club that ranks 30th in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. Current Marlins hitters are just 8-for-42 off of Peterson without a single extra-base hit. Garrett turned in a masterful four-hit complete game shutout three starts back in Arizona but has given up 12 hits and six earned runs while striking out only five in 7 2/3 innings in his last two trips to the hill. Current Mets hitters are 26-for-93 off of Garrett. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have combined for five home runs off of him. Neither bullpen has been all that great this season but we'll give the edge to the Mets, noting that the Marlins have had a miserable time trying to close out games with only nine saves converted and 12 blown. On a night where the wind is forecast to be blowing out to left, I look for the Mets offense to bust out and for this one to not be all that close. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-12-24 | Astros v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 101 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen two low-scoring games between these two teams to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday in San Francisco. The Astros bullpen has been pressed since the weekend with Tayler Scott, Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly all perhaps unavailable for Wednesday's game. Left-hander Framber Valdez will get the start for Houston. He's coming off a rare complete game but now starts on short rest (four days) after throwing 106 pitches in that one. Note that the Giants rank eighth in the majors in daytime OPS this season and tied for eighth in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. Jorge Soler, Austin Slater and Thairo Estrada are a combined 9-for-21 off of Valdez with Soler homering twice. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. Like Valdez, he will also be starting on short rest. Despite this being an Interleague matchup, the majority of current Astros hitters have seen Webb before. Of the nine that have faced Webb, seven have collected at least a hit (all but one of those have five at-bats or less). The Giants bullpen entered last night's game sporting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home this season with five saves converted and five blown. While it won't be overly warm, the wind is expected to be blowing out to right field throughout Wednesday's game. The Astros rank 12th in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days while the Giants check in tied for fifth in home runs over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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06-12-24 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -103 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays evened this series with a 3-0 victory last night. I look for the Brewers to bounce back in Wednesday's rubber match. Chris Bassitt will get the start for Toronto. He'll be making his second straight start on short rest (four days) and that's notable as he threw 100 and 102 pitches in his last two outings. Bassitt has been good but certainly not great this season, posting a 3.86 FIP and 1.38 WHIP in 13 trips to the hill. The Blue Jays used four relievers in last night's victory. Yimi Garcia has taken on the closer role with Jordan Romano sidelined and he has thrown 37 pitches over the last three games. Tobias Myers starts for Milwaukee. His results have been mixed in his rookie campaign as he has posted a 5.13 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. With that being said he tossed eight innings of one-hit shutout ball in his most recent start. The Brewers have won three of his last four starts. Milwaukee has one of the deeper bullpens in baseball and enters this game in reasonably good shape with only three relievers working last night. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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06-11-24 | White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. White Sox prospect Drew Thorpe has found success at every level he's pitched at in his climb to the majors. So far this season he has logged a 1.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 60 innings of work at Double-A Birmingham. He draws a favorable first start at the big league level, noting that the Mariners rank 26th in team OPS at home this season. Chicago actually only used two relievers in last night's collapse and as bad as things have gone for that relief corps this season, it should be a case of 'most hands on deck' on Tuesday. Seattle will hand the ball to Bryan Woo. He is in the midst of a tremendous run having allowed no earned runs on just five hits over 12 innings in his last two starts. In fact, he's pitched shutout ball in three of his last four outings. On the season, Woo owns a 2.37 FIP and 0.54 WHIP. While regression is sure to come in terms of those numbers, I'm not sure this is the spot against a White Sox club that ranks 29th in team OPS on the road this season. Similar to the White Sox, the Mariners handled their bullpen well last night. They'll have the services of closer Andres Munoz should he be needed on Tuesday. Finally, we'll give mention to the weather. On a cool night in Seattle, the wind is forecast to be blowing virtually straight in for the majority of the contest. We can anticipate the roof being open given the fact there's no precipitation in the forecast. Take the under (8*). |
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06-11-24 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game to open this series last night, as expected as we won with the 'under' in that contest. I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Marcus Stroman to the hill against Brady Singer of the Royals on a warm night in Kansas City with the wind blowing out to left. Stroman has had a tough time fooling hitters lately, recording just nine swinging strikes over his last two starts, covering a span of 12 innings (169 pitches). He's predominantly been a fly ball pitcher, particularly of late, and that doesn't help his cause against a Royals club that ranks tied for 11th in the majors in home runs over the last seven days, keeping in mind the weather conditions should favor the hitters as well. Current Yankees hitters are batting .312 in 48 career at-bats against Singer. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are a combined 5-for-10 off of the right-hander. Singer got off to a fine start this season but has displayed some regression lately and I think that continues as his FIP and WHIP track toward his career averages of 3.95 and 1.33. Both bullpens are set up well but neither relief corps has been lights out lately. I'm anticipating enough early offense that we'll only need a couple of runs in the later innings. Take the over (8*). |
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06-11-24 | Rockies v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't like the way this spot sets up for Rockies starter Cal Quantrill at all as he pitches on short rest (four days) for a second straight time after throwing 96 and 95 pitches in his last two outings. Current Twins hitters are just 22-for-93 off of the right-hander but Willi Castro, Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff (twice) have all homered off of him. Quantrill got off to a fine start this season but has seen his FIP rise to 4.45 and his WHIP to 1.30, which are right around his career averages. Louie Varland will counter for Minnesota. He has made four starts this season and they haven't gone well as he has recorded a 7.65 FIP and 2.16 WHIP. For his career, Varland has logged a 5.25 FIP and 1.36 WHIP in 110 2/3 big league innings. Hopefully we won't have to ask too much of the Rockies subpar offense here but I'm confident we'll get enough. Note that the weather should be favorable for hitters at Target Field on Tuesday with the wind blowing out to right-center. That's not to mention relatively warm temperatures by Minnesota standards (low-80's at first pitch). Take the over (8*). |
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06-11-24 | Cubs v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Tampa Bay at 6:50 pm et on Tuesday. The scoring fizzled in the back half of last night's game here in St. Petersburg as the Rays bats couldn't get anything going against the Orioles. They should be happy to see the Cubs rolling into town on Tuesday as they get a chance to snap out of their funk at the plate. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for Chicago. He checks in sporting a 4.10 FIP and 1.36 WHIP and has been hit particularly hard over his last five outings, allowing 38 hits in 25 1/3 innings of work. Cubs relievers have really struggled away from the friendly confines of Wrigley Field this season, logging a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only six saves converted and seven blown away from home. Zach Eflin has arguably been the Rays most consistent starter this season. He probably would have liked to have faced the Orioles, a team he's fared very well against, rather than the Cubs. Note that current Chicago hitters are 27-for-78 (.346) off of Eflin with 13 extra base hits including eight home runs (both Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson have multiple home runs off of him). Tampa Bay's bullpen has been a disappointment all season and particularly of late, posting a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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06-11-24 | Nationals v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Tigers exploded for 10 runs in their most recent game on Sunday as they avoided the sweep at home against the Brewers. They still check in 29th (out of 30 teams) in MLB in team OPS over the last seven days. On Tuesday, Detroit will face Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker. While he will be pitching on short rest (four days), he actually needed only 71 pitches to get through seven innings against the Braves last time out. On the season, Parker owns a 3.62 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Washington ranks 26th in the majors in team OPS on the road this season. While opposing Tigers starter Kenta Maeda may appear favorable on paper, it's worth noting that Maeda has settled in a bit here at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, allowing just one earned run in 11 innings over his last two starts on this mound. Speaking of Comerica Park, the breeze will be blowing in on Tuesday, further supporting the pitchers in what is already a favorable setting. Both teams will have all hands on deck in terms of their bullpens after an off day on Monday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-24 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners nearly let the Royals off the hook yesterday, blowing a 3-1 lead with nobody on and two outs in the ninth inning but eventually salvaged the series finale with a 6-4 victory in extra innings. That gives them something to build on as they return home to host the lowly White Sox on Monday. Seattle has dropped Logan Gilbert's last three starts but it certainly hasn't been his fault. He has worked at least six innings in six straight starts and at least into the sixth inning in an incredible 14 of his last 15 outings. Here at home, Gilbert has posted a 3.03 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Current White Sox hitters are just 9-for-44 off of the right-hander with three extra base hits. Erick Fedde will counter for Chicago. He got off to a fine start this season but hasn't been good over his last two outings, allowing seven earned runs on a whopping 15 hits over just 10 innings of work. He owns a 5.70 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven road outings this season. The White Sox had to empty the tank so to speak in terms of their bullpen over the weekend. It's a different story for the Mariners who welcomed closer Andres Munoz back in the fold (he pitched a scoreless eighth inning yesterday). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-10-24 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Sunday's Royals game had no business going 'over' the total (it was 3-1 Mariners with two outs and no one on base in the bottom of the ninth inning). You know the rest. Here, I will take another shot with the 'under' as the Yankees come off a hard-fought series against the Dodgers. Carlos Rodon will get the start for New York. He perhaps hasn't been quite as good as his 3.08 ERA indicates, sporting a 4.23 FIP but his 1.08 WHIP is sitting around a career-best. He's held current Royals hitters to a collective 7-for-39. On a relatively cool night with the breeze blowing in at pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, this one sets up well for Rodon. Seth Lugo continues to defy expectations for the Royals, logging a 3.48 FIP and 1.02 WHIP through 13 starts. Current Yankees hitters are a respectable 16-for-59 off of him but with only five extra base hits (three home runs). Both bullpens put in some work over the weekend but the cupboard won't be bare for Monday's game. Royals struggling closer James McCarthur has worked the last two games but that might not be a bad thing as it likely renders him (and his near-5.00 ERA) unavailable for this one. Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-24 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -107 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Just when you think the Blue Jays have turned things around, that's usually precisely when they hit the wall. That's what I expect to happen in this series in Milwaukee. Toronto has won four of its last five games including a weekend series win over the A's in Oakland. Of course, the Jays needed a complete game shutout from Kevin Gausman on Saturday followed by extra innings to secure Sunday's victory. In other words, don't start planning the parade just yet. Jays starter Jose Berrios hasn't been nearly as good as his sub-3.00 ERA indicates, logging a 4.41 FIP. Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a second straight time after throwing 101 and 97 pitches in his last two outings. Brewers starter Colin Rea tossed four innings of shutout ball in a relief appearances against the mighty Phillies on June 4th. His last start came on May 30th - a 6-4 home win over the Cubs. He won't be asked to do too much in this contest as Milwaukee should have all hands on deck in terms of its bullpen with no reliever having worked consecutive days. Speaking of that Brewers bullpen, it has been among the best in baseball this season, sporting a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only eight blown. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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06-10-24 | Orioles v. Rays +137 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Baltimore at 6:50 pm et on Monday. The Orioles have to be feeling pretty good about themselves having gone 5-2 on this road trip including taking the first three games in this series in St. Petersburg. While they appear to be set up well to complete the sweep on paper with ace Corbin Burnes starting against Ryan Pepiot on Monday, we'll go the other way and take a shot with the Rays. Tampa Bay certainly still has the personnel in place to turn things around but needs to start making a move and can ill afford to fall another game back with a fourth straight defeat at the hands of the O's. While Baltimore will be looking forward to heading home following this game, the Rays will stay home to begin a series with the Cubs. Burnes has been on the mound for four straight Orioles victories. It's not as if his stuff has been completely dominant, however, as he has topped out at six strikeouts over his last three outings. We're certainly taking a bit of a leap of faith backing the Rays struggling bats, but I'm not sure they'll need a lot of offense in this particular game. Pepiot has been quietly effective for Tampa Bay as it has won four of his last five starts. He has been slightly better than his 3.96 ERA indicates, posting a 3.42 FIP and 0.96 WHIP. Due to the lopsided nature of the last couple of games, the Rays bullpen is set up well for Monday's affair. It will be 'all hands on deck' so to speak as they look to avoid the sweep. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |