My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 5:30 pm et on Sunday.

We've made a bit of a habit of fading Padres starter Ryan Weathers and we'll do the same here as the Cubs look to bounce back from last night's shutout loss in San Diego. Marcus Stroman has impressed for Chicago this season, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 73 innings of work. While the Cubs bullpen behind him has struggled lately, this is still a relief corps I do have some faith in and the majority of their key arms should be in line to work on Sunday. Weathers checks in with a 4.48 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The Padres did win his most recent start but that was really no thanks to Weathers as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against the Marlins. While the Padres bullpen has posted solid numbers overall, it has had a tough time closing out games, already blowing 10 saves this season. Here at home, San Diego has converted four saves while blowing four as well. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night but I look for New York to answer back on Saturday. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He's been roughed up in his last two outings but still owns terrific overall numbers this season with a 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. I can't help but feel the Dodgers bats are in for some regression after scoring six runs or more in six straight games heading into this contest. Los Angeles will counter with Michael Grove. He'll be making his fifth start this season and the results have been a mixed bag. Grove owns an ugly 8.44 ERA but has been better than that lofty number, sporting a 4.65 FIP. That's not saying he's pitched well, however, noting that he checks in with a 1.75 WHIP. As I noted in my analysis of last night's game, the bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup, however, the Yankees 'pen has been pitching far better recent, entering last night's contest with a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers 'pen recorded an ERA north of five over the same stretch. Take New York (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Dodgers dropped their most recent contest in Washington but I look for them to rebound in Friday's series-opener against the Yankees. New York will give the start to Luis Severino. He checks in sporting a sparkling 1.59 ERA in two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings. He hasn't been quite as sharp as that number indicates, however, as he has recorded a 3.73 FIP. In two minor league rehab outings, Severino logged a 4.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 2/3 innings. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be looking to bounce back after a string of rough outings but still owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 11 outings spanning 62 1/3 innings this season. He'll be making his second straight on a full five days' rest. The Yankees bullpen appears to have the edge although it is worth noting that the Dodgers bullpen has been significantly stronger at home than on the road, logging a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enjoyed a day off yesterday but will be back at it for the start of this three-game divisional series on Friday. The Mariners will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He checks in sporting a 2.93 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season. Over his last two outings he's tossed 12 shutout innings, striking out 18 and walking only four along the way. Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA but I don't think he's been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 4.64 FIP in 10 starts, spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. There's no question Gray has been terrific over his last seven outings but I do think he's running out of real estate in his current five-start undefeated streak. Prior to that he owned a 1-11 team record over his last 12 outings. The two bullpens are virtually a wash, although it is worth noting that Texas has had a bit of a tough time closing out games this season, converting 10 saves but also blowing eight. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Reds had their four-game 'over' streak snapped in last night's 5-4 victory here in Boston. I look for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting in Thursday's series-finale. Reds starter Hunter Greene's most recent outing went 'over' the total but it had everything to do with the Cincinnati offense as it rolled to a 9-0 victory over the Cubs. Greene actually worked six hitless frames in that victory, striking out 11 along the way. That marked his second straight start in which he recorded double-digit strikeouts. Greene has lowered his FIP to 3.62 and his WHIP to a still-lofty 1.38. It's worth noting that he should be in line for some regression to the mean in terms of hits allowed, noting he has given up 8.8 hits per nine innings this season after allowing just 7.4 in 125 2/3 innings last year. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.90 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work this season. Sale brings excellent form into this start having allowed just 10 hits and four earned runs in his last three outings, covering a span of 20 innings. The two bullpens have exceeded expectations this season. While the Reds 'pen has suffered a bit of regression lately, logging an ERA north of five over the last seven games, it has also converted four saves without a single blown over that stretch. Between the two clubs, they've combined to convert 31 saves while blowing only 13. Take the under (8*).

American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over New York at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series in blowout fashion but I look for the Mariners to answer back on Wednesday. Clarke Schmidt has turned things around to a certain extent for the Yankees over the last couple of starts, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings of work. He still owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.60 WHIP on the season. Of the 229 batters he has faced, 82 have reached base. The Mariners will counter with George Kirby. He got shelled in his most recent outing. It happens to the best of pitchers. That doesn't change the fact that he has pitched well this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 71-of-254 batters to reach base. As a testament to how impressive he has been, Kirby has worked at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash but I'm confident the Mariners can pick themselves back up at the plate and snap their two-game skid, noting they've lost more than two games in a row only once since April 30th. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Blue Jays picked up their second straight win in the opener of this interleague series last night. They'll likely need to get their bats out again on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Teheran has made just one big league start this season - his first since 2021. He held up well in that outing against the Giants but I think it's important to keep that brief start in perspective. At the Triple-A level, with the Padres organization, Teheran had recorded a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Of the 185 batters he faced, 70 reached base. Manoah has of course struggled this season, posting a 6.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP in 11 starts. You would have to go back seven outings to find the last time he lasted six innings or more. While the Blue Jays bullpen behind him has held up well, they also haven't had a day off (as a team) since May 11th. The Brewers 'pen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Braves got stunned by the A's in the series-opener between these two teams yesterday, dropping a 7-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back on Monday, behind impressive starter Bryce Elder. Elder checks in sporting a 3.46 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts, spanning 58 1/3 innings of work. Of the 237 batters he has faced, only 72 have reached base. He'll start on a full five days' rest after taking the ball on short rest in his last outing. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it has held up well on the road this season, posting a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He has actually gone two starts without the A's dropping a decision by multiple runs but Oakland has lost each of his last six outings overall. Sears owns a 5.15 FIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. He has displayed much better command than we've seen previously in his career, allowing just 1.7 walks per nine innings but will be tested by a Braves lineup that has drawn 178 walks this season (entering Monday's action). Sears hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season, leaving the A's poor bullpen likely to make more than a cameo appearance here. Note that Oakland's relief corps has recorded a collective 6.50 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season with only four saves converted and 10 blown (also entering yesterday's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

I'm not convinced that this will be the pitcher's duel that many are expecting as the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Liberatore will be making his third appearance and second start for the Cardinals this season. He pitched well in his lone previous start, out-duelling Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in a 3-0 victory back on May 17th. The left-hander has yet to find much consistency at the big league level, however, noting that he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings with St. Louis last season. He has allowed 9-of-27 batters he has faced to reach base in limited work this year and I do expect the Guardians to apply plenty of pressure with their aggressive base-running on Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern should be the Cardinals bullpen as they haven't had a day off since May 11th and check in sporting a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Cards 'pen has converted only 11 saves while blowing 10. Shane Bieber has been somewhat un-Bieber-like this season, posting a 3.98 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. His walks per nine innings are up and his strikeouts are down (considerably). Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Compounding matters is the fact that he worked eight innings, throwing 106 pitches in his most recent start. The Guardians bullpen has been good but has had a tendency to cough up late leads, blowing two saves in the last seven games alone and 11 on the season so far. Take the over (8*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

The Tigers took the opener of this series by a 7-2 score last night - their second straight victory. Note that they've strung together more than two wins in a row only twice previously this season while the White Sox haven't dropped back-to-back games since a three-game skid from May 10th to 12th, quietly turning things around following an awful start. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the visiting White Sox on Friday. I have him pegged as a positive regression candidate as much like his team, we've seen him start to turn the corner over his last couple of outings. Lynn still owns a disappointing 4.71 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season but those numbers do indicate he's pitched better than his lofty 6.28 ERA. Note that the hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate, even by Lynn's standards, as he has given up 10.2 hits per nine innings this season, compared to his career average of 8.3. Lynn has also given up 1.9 home runs per nine innings compared to his career mark of 0.9 but most of the damage was done when he was struggling early in the campaign. He has given up just one home run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. Lynn should be pleased to see the Tigers as his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against them. Joey Wentz will counter for Detroit. He made seven starts at the big league level last year and pitched reasonably well. It's been a different story here in 2023, however, as the book may be out on the left-hander. He checks in sporting a 5.79 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through 38 2/3 innings of work. Wentz hasn't made it out of the third inning in either of his last two outings. While he will have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time, the same could have been said in his last start against the Washington Nationals and he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits over just two innings. Based on recent form, we can consider the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup. I do like the fact that White Sox relievers have only been called upon to work 23 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting three saves without blowing a single one over that stretch. Despite last night's defeat, the White Sox have had plenty of success here in the Motor City over the last 2+ seasons, going 12-7, outscoring the Tigers by an average margin of 6-4. Take Chicago (10*).

National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mariners got a bit of a scare, if you can call it that, from the A's last night as they trailed 2-0 before rallying in the bottom of the fifth inning and ultimately holding on for a 3-2 victory. Sitting in fourth place in the highly-competitive American League West and staring down a tough upcoming schedule that will feature consecutive series' against the Pirates, Yankees and Rangers, it's important that Seattle makes the most of this four-game home series against the lowly A's and so far, so good with two wins in as many tries. Ken Waldichuk will inexplicably get another turn in the A's starting rotation on Wednesday. The left-hander has been every bit as bad as his 6.85 ERA indicates, logging a 7.28 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through nine starts spanning 46 innings of work. Of the 220 batters he has faced, 88 have reached base including a whopping 13 home runs. Things don't figure to get any better here as the Mariners get their second look at him this season and he starts on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season (11 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts on short rest). Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown this season. Impressive rookie Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. While he will also be starting on just four days' rest, I'm not overly concerned as he did so back on May 7th as well (against a much tougher opponent in the Houston Astros) and allowed only two hits over six shutout innings. Miller's numbers are terrific. He has logged a 1.78 FIP and 0.51 WHIP through his first four big league starts, facing 88 batters and allowing only 13 of them to reach base. What I really like about Miller is that he's shown the ability to work deep into ball games, lasting at least six innings in all four starts to date. The Mariners bullpen behind him, while showing some regression lately, has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only six blown this season (entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We're starting to see this total creep down following consecutive 'under' results to open this series. I believe it's the wrong move. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. This 2023 campaign hasn't gone particularly well for the Marlins ace as he checks in sporting a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings of work. He hasn't been as bad as that ERA indicates, logging a 3.59 FIP and 1.23 WHIP but there is still reason for concern as he has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs over his last seven starts and now pitches on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season. The Marlins bullpen has been overworked, having been called into action for just shy of 190 innings already this season. Note that Miami relievers entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Karl Kauffmann will get his second big league start for the Rockies on Wednesday. I'm confident the Marlins bats can inflict plenty of damage against the right-hander. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest after allowing 9-of-21 batters he faced to reach base in his debut against the Rangers last week. Kauffmann inexplicably got the call to the bigs after getting rocked to the tune of a 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 37 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He allowed a ridiculous 69-of-174 batters to reach base with Albuquerque. The Rockies bullpen has held up alright so far in this series but is still a subpar relief corps having entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Padres took the opener of this series last night and have now strung together consecutive wins for the first time since May 3rd and 5th. I look for their success to be short-lived, however. Ryan Weathers will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. I don't believe he's been as good as his 3.42 ERA indicates, recording a 4.46 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work this season. The hits haven't been falling in against him but we're bound to see some regression in that department, noting that he has allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season but gives up 9.2 for his career. Of the 92 batters Weathers has faced, 28 have reached base, this coming after he allowed 10-of-30 batters he faced to reach base at the Triple-A level earlier this season. The Nationals saw Weathers in the 2021 season, chasing him after 5 1/3 innings but not before plating four earned runs including two home runs on seven hits (while striking out only twice). Trevor Williams will counter for Washington. He's given the Nationals about what they expected, logging a 4.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through nine starts spanning 44 1/3 innings of work. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season. Unlike his counterpart Weathers, Williams doesn't hand out many free passes, issuing just 2.0 walks per nine innings this season. While the Padres bullpen has pitched well lately, I'm willing to consider that department a virtual wash in this matchup at least when you consider the home/road splits of both relief corps'. The Nationals 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season while Padres relievers had recorded a 3.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. As I've said from the start of the season, I do think the Nats' are well-built for the ballpark they play their home games in, even if they are just 10-16 here this season. I like their chances of answering back against the Padres on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*).

A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

The Rockies return home licking their wounds after getting swept at the hands of the Rangers in Texas, outscored by a 31-10 margin in that three-game series. They'll be in tough again on Monday as they hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is with his third organization already this season, for his second start of the campaign. Since lasting four years with the Brewers from 2016 to 2019, Anderson has now bounced around five different clubs since 2020. I don't need to tell you there's a reason for that. Incredibly, only 5-of-35 batters Anderson has faced at the big league level this season have managed to reach base. I can't help but feel that regression is coming, however, noting that Anderson had allowed 37-of-100 minor league batters to reach base, including four home runs, in 23 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier in the campaign. Behind Anderson is an awful Rockies bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 189 innings this season including 30 1/3 frames over the last seven games alone. Over their last seven contests they've posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He was dealing with a blister on his finger in his most recent outing but appears on track to make this start on Monday. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for just the fourth time this season, having allowed eight earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three outings on four days' rest. Like the Rockies, the Marlins 'pen has also been overworked this season, called into action for a collective 183 innings, recording a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP along the way. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday as the Rangers continued their onslaught of the Rockies pitching staff in an 11-5 victory. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Connor Seabold will take the ball for the visiting Rockies. He remains in the Colorado starting rotation out of necessity only as he has struggled to the tune of a 5.12 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 10 appearances including three starts this season. Of the 131 batters he has faced, a whopping 50 of them have reached base. Behind Seabold is a Rockies bullpen that has been extremely overworked, logging a collective 33 1/3 innings over the last seven games alone. For the season, Rockies relievers have combined to post a 3.90 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will give Andrew Heaney the start. He's been a bit of a mixed-bag, recording a lofty 5.11 FIP but a respectable 1.19 WHIP. The hits simply haven't been falling in against the left-hander as he has allowed just 6.9 hits per nine innings. I do think we'll see some regression to the mean in that department, noting he has still given up 8.6 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. The Rangers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has really struggled lately, logging a collective 8.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just one save converted and two blown over the last seven games. Take the over (8*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Orioles offense kept rolling along last night, putting up six runs in a lopsided victory thanks to tacking on a couple of late runs against a banged-up Blue Jays bullpen. In fact, both bullpens are probably a little weary right now with neither team having had a day off since May 11th. The O's 'pen in particular has been overworked this season, logging 167 2/3 innings collectively. It has admittedly held up well but figures to be pressed into action early on Saturday noting that starter Grayson Rodriguez has yet to last six innings in a start in his big league career. Speaking of Rodriguez, he checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.73 WHIP and will start on short rest (four days) for the fourth time already this season. He hasn't fared well in his three previous outings on short rest, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Of the 170 batters Rodriguez has faced this season, 64 have reached base including nine home runs in 37 innings. Alek Manoah has been an abject disaster for the Blue Jays so far this season. To make matters worse, like Rodriguez, he'll be starting on short rest here. Manoah owns a 6.45 FIP and 1.80 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 85-of-214 batters to reach base. The Orioles are capable of applying significant pressure on the right-hander, noting they're among the league leaders in stolen bases with 42. In fact, they've averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home. With the Jays bullpen still sorely missing Zach Pop and Adam Cimber and having logged 4 1/3 innings, using five different relievers, last night, I look for plenty of offense from start to finish in this one. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

The Angels were involved in a wild affair in Baltimore yesterday afternoon, rallying for a 6-5 victory to wrap up that four-game series. Now they travel back across the country to host the Twins on Friday and I believe we're in for a relatively low-scoring contest. Joe Ryan will take the ball for the visiting Twins, who were idle yesterday after a three-game series against the Dodgers, also in California. Ryan has been terrific this season, logging a 2.54 FIP and 0.84 WHIP, allowing just 43-of-192 batters to reach base. It really doesn't get much better in terms of starting pitchers this season. Current Angels hitters have gone 4-for-12 in limited action against Ryan with only one extra-base hit (a double from Mike Trout). The Twins offense exploded over a three-game stretch from last Saturday to Monday, plating a whopping 35 runs. Since then, they've been held to eight runs in two games and I expect them to be in tough here as well, noting they average just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and will face a southpaw in Reid Detmers on Friday. Detmers has been a mixed-bag so far this season but it certainly capable of giving the Angels a quality start. Working 129 innings last season, Detmers posted a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. While he hasn't been able to reach those same heights so far this season, I do think he's been better than his lofty 4.89 ERA indicates as he owns a 3.90 FIP. He has allowed a disappointing 10.0 hits per nine innings but I do expect some regression to the mean in that department, and a lowering of his 1.51 WHIP to go along with it. Current Twins hitters are just 8-for-35 against Detmers including a home run from Carlos Correa. In fact, that home run is the only extra-base hits they've managed to collect off of him. This matchup pits two of the best bullpens in baseball this season. What I really like about the Twins 'pen is the fact that it is one of the freshest in the majors having logged less than 150 innings collectively. Having the day off yesterday certainly helps their cause as well. The Angels 'pen has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). While the 'over' cashed in Los Angeles' victory yesterday, it hasn't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from May 6th to 8th. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 5-1 in the Twins last six games but they've still posted a 19-22-3 o/u mark this season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Blue Jays are struggling right now, fresh off dropping three of four games against the rival Yankees here at home. I'm not as easily convinced that they'll pick themselves up off the mat on Friday as some and will back the Orioles at a generous underdog price. While the Jays have the more high-profile offense on paper, it's the O's lineup that has worn opposing pitchers out this season. Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi knows all about that as he faced Baltimore three times last season, allowing 12 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. While Kikuchi owns a respectable 3.89 ERA this season he has logged a disappointing 5.46 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Behind Kikuchi is a banged-up Jays bullpen that is missing two of its key arms in Adam Cimber and Zach Pop. Baltimore will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson for Friday's series-opener. I'm not going to sugar-coat it, he hasn't been all that good this season, posting a 4.39 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. I do like the fact that he's managed to work at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He has probably deserved better than a three-start losing streak, noting that the O's haven't given him a single run of support over that stretch. The O's bullpen doesn't get enough credit. Their relief corps' has logged a collective 2.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday.

The Dodgers are a team that we want to bet on right now and Julio Urias is certainly a starting pitcher we're looking to support as well. Urias didn't get off to the best start this season and still owns a FIP just above four as he has been giving up home runs at a much higher rate than we're accustomed to seeing (1.7 per nine innings compared to his career mark of 1.0). However, he has strung together three straight solid outings, lowering his WHIP all the way to 1.07 and I believe he's well-positioned to keep the positive momentum building in St. Louis on Thursday. Urias' counterpart will be veteran Adam Wainwright. He struggled in a few minor league outings earlier this season, allowing 20-of-58 batters to reach base while recording an ERA north of six in 13 innings of work. Since re-joining the Cards he has logged a 5.10 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while allowing 17-of-45 batters he has faced to reach base. Now he faces a Dodgers club that is certainly comfortable facing him having gone up against him four times (winning three of those games) over the last two seasons (nine earned runs in 22 innings). The bullpens are virtually a wash and both teams were in action yesterday. I will point out that Los Angeles has converted 12 saves while blowing only four while St. Louis has just eight saves to its credit to go along with 10 blown. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series in lopsided fashion and they're favored again in Thursday's finale. I do think the Guardians give them a run here, but rather than back Cleveland in an underdog role, we'll go with the 'over' as I believe this total will prove too low. Logan Allen will get his fifth big league start for the Guardians. It seems as if the book might already be out on him after he looked terrific in his first two outings before getting roughed up in his last two. All told, Allen has posted a solid 3.26 FIP but a less-than-impressive 1.48 WHIP in 21 innings of work this season. Of the 95 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base including two home runs allowed. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's been terrific in his last three starts against the Guardians (all coming last season) but I don't believe this is a particularly favorable matchup for the right-hander this season. As I've noted time and time again this season, the Guardians do put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers that have a tendency to put runners on base as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths. Cease certainly fits the bill as one of those pitchers as he has allowed 72-of-212 batters he has faced to reach base in 46 1/3 innings of work this season. Note that Cease hasn't come close to matching last season's scintillating numbers (he finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP here in 2023. Also note that he'll be making his third straight start on short rest (four days). The two bullpens have been a mixed bag. The Guardians relief corps has generally been terrific, posting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox 'pen on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 5.77 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Between the two bullpens we've seen 17 blown saves (compared to 24 converted) so far this season. The Guardians are still without Jose Ramirez and possibly Josh Naylor as well but that's been properly factored into the total in my opinion. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The first two games in this series both went 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Chicago has now seen the 'over' cash in a season-high seven straight games. Its longest previous 'over' streak lasted only three games (twice). The interesting thing about this run of 'over' results is the fact that the Cubs aren't actually scoring with much consistency. They've plated 4, 10, 6, 1, 3, 4 and 3 runs during the streak. The question becomes whether the Cubs pitching staff can turn the tide and I believe it can on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly will get the start for Chicago. He's been a bright spot in the Cubs rotation - turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.57 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts covering a span of 44 1/3 innings. Of the 176 batters Smyly has faced, only 45 have reached base. Chicago elected to essentially wave the white flag from the seventh inning on last night, keeping its best bullpen arms in reserve. The Cubs 'pen has struggled lately but still entered last night's contest sporting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in night games this season (4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP overall). J.P. France will get his third straight start in the Astros rotation having impressed in the first two. He got the call to the Show after posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Since joining the Astros, France has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 0.69 WHIP, allowing just 9-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind France is a terrific Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown this season (entering last night's action). Take the under (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series and they've done so convincingly by a 13-7 margin. I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Wednesday, even as they face New York ace Gerrit Cole. We've seen some cracks in Cole's armor lately as he has allowed 24 hits and 11 earned runs over his last four starts covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. While it hasn't necessarily affected him much in the past, he'll be making his fifth consecutive start on short rest (four days). The Yankees have managed to win Cole's last two starts against the Blue Jays, including a walk-off 3-2 victory in the Bronx back in April. The last time New York won consecutive Cole outings against Toronto (back in 2021) they dropped his next start against the Jays by a 5-1 score. Behind Cole is an effective but overworked Yankees bullpen that was forced into action early last night thanks to starter Domingo German's ejection. Note that New York hasn't had a day off since May 4th, complicating late-inning bullpen decisions. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt. After an up-and-down start to the season he has really settled in over his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run in 16 innings of work. In fact, since allowing 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis in his season debut, Bassitt has given up just 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his last seven starts, lasting at least six innings in six of those outings. The Toronto bullpen faltered late in last night's game but entered that contest sporting a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season. Closer Jordan Romano is well-rested having not pitched since Saturday. Take Toronto (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants have taken a pair of tightly-contested affairs to open this series and the Phillies have suddenly lost three games in a row following a five-game winning streak. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Wednesday as it sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Ross Stripling of the Giants. Walker has certainly had an inconsistent start to his 2023 campaign but has managed to string together consecutive solid outings entering this start, allowing just four earned runs on 10 hits and no walks while striking out nine over his last 12 innings of work. I like the fact that he has lasted at least six innings in four of his last six trips to the hill and will be working in front of a Phillies bullpen that has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. Despite the close game last night, Philadelphia kept most of its key relief arms idle after Zach Wheeler worked six frames. Ross Stripling will counter for San Francisco. He's bounced in and out of the starting rotation in the early going this season, making eight appearances overall. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.14 ERA would indicate, logging a 7.16 FIP and 1.59 WHIP with 47 of the 131 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Stripling has topped out at five innings in his four previous starts this season which doesn't bode well as the Giants bullpen has been a mess, sporting a collective 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 12 saves converted and seven blown on the campaign. Note that Giants closer Camilo Doval, one of the few bright spots in the San Francisco relief corps this season, worked the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams were involved in an extra innings slugfest to open this series last night. In fact, the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Twins last four games following a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that run of high-scoring contests to come to an end here. Bailey Ober will get the start for the visiting Twins. He has impressed since getting the call to the bigs this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. He did get tagged for two home runs in his last start but those were his first two long balls allowed this season. Of the 92 batters Ober has faced this season, only 22 have managed to reach base. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that wasn't up to par last night but has generally been solid this season, recording a collective 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. On the road Minnesota's relief corps has converted five saves while blowing only two. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He's enjoying another terrific campaign, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. Like Ober he has been bitten by the long ball over his last couple of outings but has still allowed just 1.3 home runs per nine innings this season and I would anticipate continued positive regression in that department noting he hasn't given up more than 1.2 HR/9 since the 2019 season. Kershaw has allowed just 48-of-193 batters to reach base and will have the benefit of starting on full rest (five days) here. He faced the Twins once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 7-0 Dodgers victory in Minnesota. The Los Angeles bullpen has settled down after a shaky start to the season, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Diamondbacks cruised to a 5-2 victory. I expect a much different result from a totals perspective on Tuesday as we have an unappealing starting pitching matchup between Tommy Henry of Arizona and Kyle Muller of Oakland. Henry will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days) and that doesn't bode well after he pitched a season-high 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outing. Note that Henry has posted a 5.01 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. That's after he had logged a lofty 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season but hasn't had an off day since May 4th. A's starter Kyle Muller was a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta in the offseason. So far this year, Muller hasn't panned out, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.95 WHIP with 77 of the 185 batters he has faced managing to reach base. The A's bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with four saves converted and nine blown. Note that the A's haven't had a day off since May 1st, obviously further complicating their late inning decisions in this series. Take the over (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively high-scoring series-opener between these former N.L. Central rivals last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. While Cubs starter Justin Steele saw his last start fly 'over' the total in a 10-4 Cubs rout of the Cardinals. We'll continue to smash the 'under' button with Steele on the hill, however, noting that he has logged a 3.22 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 53-of-192 batters he has faced to reach base this season. That coming on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which Steele impressively posted a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts spanning 119 innings of work. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.95 WHIP last year yet was snubbed in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. So far this season, Javier has posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He has struck out 35 batters over his last four outings. It's also worth noting that both of tonight's starters will be taking the ball on full rest (five days). While the Cubs bullpen has wobbled a bit lately, it still owns a collective 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has posted a terrific 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 2.53 and 0.84 respectively over the last seven games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Yankees took the opener of this series last night at Rogers Centre but I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Tuesday. Domingo German gets the start for the visiting Yankees. He'll be making his fifth straight start on short rest (four days) and it seems to be wearing on him as he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out only eight in 10 2/3 innings of work. While German's 0.96 WHIP is impressive, his 4.37 FIP tells a much different story. The fact that he's allowing just 5.6 hits per nine innings is really the only thing keeping his numbers in check but we can anticipate some regression in that department moving forward, noting that he has still allowed 7.8 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He posted otherworldly numbers last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2023, save for a couple of ugly outlier performances against the Astros and Red Sox. On the season, Gausman owns a 2.31 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing only 53-of-196 batters he has faced to reach base. Both bullpens have been reliable in the early going this season although I do think the Yankees are in tough in that department given they haven't had a day off since May 4th. The Jays 'pen has been particularly sharp at home this season, logging a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. Take Toronto (8*).

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Padres enter this game on a season-long five-game losing streak following a disheartening sweep at the hands of the division-rival Dodgers in Los Angeles. Their longest previous losing skid lasted only three games (that's happened twice previously this season). I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they return home to host the Royals on Monday. Interestingly, tonight's starter for San Diego will be Michael Wacha who just happens to be the last starting pitcher to guide them to victory last week in Minnesota. Wacha has been handled well this season as he's yet to make a start on short rest (four days) and won't here either. He's pitched as well as the Padres could have hoped for in the early stages of the season as he has posted a 4.13 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. While he is putting a few too many batters on base for my liking, he's done a better job over his last two starts, yielding just five hits and five walks (and only one earned run) over 12 innings. Wacha's counterpart on Monday will be Brad Keller of the Royals. The other Keller, Mitch, was lights out for the Pirates yesterday and has arguably been one of the best starters in all of baseball over the last month. It's a much different story with Brad. He checks in sporting a 5.39 FIP and 1.77 WHIP having allowed a whopping 72-of-178 batters he has faced to reach base. Note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest here. Of course, the Royals bullpen hasn't been much better, entering yesterday's action with a collective 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP having converted five saves and blown six. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite as good as most expected but hasn't been the biggest problem either, logging a collective 3.92 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering yesterday's contest. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. In fact, the Rockies have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, matching their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four straight 'under' results, their next game totalled 14 runs right here at home against the Diamondbacks. I look for a similar story to unfold here as they open a series against the Reds on Monday. Hunter Greene will take the ball for Cincinnati. We were fairly high on the young right-hander earlier in the campaign but the numbers don't lie at this point and he has really struggled lately. Greene checks in sporting a 3.48 FIP and 1.49 WHIP with 61-of-176 batters he has faced reaching base. It gets a lot worse when you consider he has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits, including three home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 innings of work. Greene has pitched here at hitter-friendly Coors Field just once previously in his career (last season), allowing four earned runs on six hits including two home runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Connor Seabold will counter for Colorado. He's made just two big league starts so far this season but has also logged time out of the bullpen. All told, Seabold owns a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 39-of-107 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs in only 23 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Reds actually faced Seabold last September and chased him after scoring four earned runs in five innings. Both bullpens have held up better than expected so far this season but I would also firmly place both in the 'overworked' category at this point, the Reds' in particular as it entered yesterday's action having logged a whopping 38 collective innings over the last seven games. Also note that the Reds haven't had a day off since last Monday, which obviously doesn't help matters. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday‘s series-finale. Andrew Heaney will take the ball for the Rangers. As I’ve noted on previous occasions this season, he’s pitching for his fourth different team since 2021. Heaney has struggled so far this year, logging a 5.73 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The A’s will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after collecting five hits and two walks over six innings on April 22nd. Drew Rucinski will get another turn in the A’s starting rotation out of necessity only. He’s been predictably awful in his return to the majors (prior to this year he last pitched for the Marlins in 2018), posting a 7.27 FIP and 2.09 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings this season. Of the 73 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base. To make matters worse, Rucinski will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). Of course, the A’s bullpen has been awful as well, logging a collective 6.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown. The Rangers relief corps has been far better but still has just eight saves converted compared to six blown so the door should be open for potential late offense if needed here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The Mariners are suddenly rolling along, winners of eight of their last 11 games and they'll look to complete the series sweep in Detroit on Sunday. I like their chances with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Gilbert was a hard-luck loser in his last start as he allowed just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers. He's sporting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season having logged a 2.69 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts spanning 40 1/3 innings. In his lone outing against the Tigers last season, Gilbert tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win here in Detroit. Wentz has labored through seven starts for the Tigers this season having posted a 5.52 FIP and 1.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-144 batters he has faced to reach base. The left-hander will be in tough here, noting that the Mariners entered yesterday's action hitting 14 points higher against southpaw starting pitchers compared to their overall batting average, also putting up 4.8 runs per contest. In terms of the bullpens, the Mariners hold the edge in that department as well. They entered Saturday's affair sporting a collective 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. The Tigers 'pen has actually performed better than expected so far this season but still owns an ERA north of four and just nine saves compared to six blown. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers bats were fairly lifeless against Padres starter Joe Musgrove last Sunday night but they still found a way to pull out a 5-2 victory in extra innings and their dominance over the Padres continued last night as they secured a 4-2 victory to open this series. Musgrove has been slow to regain his form since returning from injury. He logged 9 1/3 innings at the Single and Triple-A level earlier in April and allowed 15-of-43 batters he faced to reach base. Since re-joining the big club he has recorded a 6.22 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing 20 of the 60 batters he has faced to reach base, including four home runs. I believe it's advantage-Dodgers here as they get their second look at Musgrove in less than a week and face him for the sixth time since the start of last season (the Padres went 1-4 in his five previous outings). Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He should be happy to be facing the Padres for a second straight turn in the rotation, noting that he owns a career 7-1 record to go along with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them. You would have to go back nine starts to find the last time the Dodgers lost to the Padres with Urias on the mound. He hasn't gotten off to the start he probably hoped for this season but has settled in over his last couple of outings (save for a bad first inning against the Padres last time out), yielding just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. Urias currently owns a 4.13 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 54-of-185 batters he has faced to reach base. I expect some positive regression to the mean in terms of his home runs allowed as he has given up 1.6 long balls per nine innings, which would serve as the highest mark of his career (his previous career-high was 1.2 last season). Both bullpens entered the season with high expectations and haven't necessarily lived up to those. With that being said, both have settled down over the last week or so although the Padres continue to have a miserable time trying to close out games, blowing three saves while converting just one over the last seven games. They've already blown eight saves this season (while converting 13). The Dodgers 'pen has converted four saves without blowing a single one over the last seven games. In fact, they've blown only three saves all season (while converting 11). Take Los Angeles (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup will feature two underrated starting pitchers in Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs and Joe Ryan of the Twins. While last night's series-opener snuck 'over' the total, I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Wesneski will start on full (five days) rest for the first time in his last five outings. He's pitched well nonetheless, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts. After getting off to a shaky start that included six walks and three home runs allowed in his first two outings this season (covering a span of just six innings), Wesneski has really settled down and checks in having allowed 44-of-145 batters he has faced to reach base. The Twins have had to scratch and claw for seemingly every run lately, scoring 2, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5 and 2 runs over their last seven contests. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out in the early going this season and doesn't get enough credit for how well he has pitched over the course of his three-year big league career. Ryan owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.84 WHIP in seven starts spanning 44 innings this season. Only 38-of-169 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Both bullpens have held up reasonably well so far this season with the Cubs relief corps' in particular shining lately to the tune of a collective 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games. They did use two key relievers in Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. in last night's game but both have proven capable of working back-to-back games this season. The Twins 'pen has logged a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season and they kept two key relief arms in Jhoan Duran and closer Jorge Lopez idle last night. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The White Sox return home after dropping three of four games against the lowly Royals and I don't believe they're any better positioned to gt back in the win column as they host the Astros on Friday. Houston salvaged the final two games of its six-game west coast road trip to finish 3-3 on that jaunt. The Astros got a much-needed day off yesterday as their bullpen had been struggling over the last seven games but still owns a terrific 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only four blown on the campaign. That's in stark contrast to that of the White Sox. Chicago's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and proceeded to give up the game-winning run in the ninth inning against Kansas City. Note that the White Sox haven't had a day off since May 1st, further compounding their issues. Chicago will give Michael Kopech the start on Friday. He's arguably been even worse than his lofty 5.97 ERA indicates having posted a 7.53 FIP and 1.57 WHIP through seven starts spanning 37 2/3 innings. Of the 170 batters he has faced, 62 have reached base including a whopping 12 home runs allowed. J.P France will get his second big league start for the Astros. While he came out on the short end in a 7-5 road defeat against the Mariners in his debut, it wasn't his fault by any means as he gave up just three hits and one walk while striking out five over five shutout innings. Note that France earned the call-up after he posted a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season, allowing only 21-of-77 batters he faced to reach base. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

Thursday's series-finale between these two A.L. Central cellar-dwellers features a subpar starting pitching matchup between Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and Brady Singer of the Royals. The book seems to once again be out on Clevinger as he re-acclimates himself with the American League after spending the last couple of years with the Padres. Of course, Clevinger missed the entire 2021 season before returning to log 114 1/3 innings last year. He struggled to the tune of a 4.97 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and has been even worse in the early going this season, recording a 5.19 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts spanning 35 1/3 innings. Of the 160 batters Clevinger has faced, 56 have reached base including six home runs - all coming in his last four outings. Note that Clevinger will be starting on short rest (four days) for the third time this season. On the two previous occasions he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only eight innings. Singer has been a bit of an enigma in the first several years of his big league career. He had a terrific 2022 campaign by most accounts, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. That appears to be an outlier, however, as he has struggled again this season, posting a 5.40 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, allowing 57 of the 156 batters he has faced to reach base. Like Clevinger, Singer will also be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday. In three previous starts on short rest this season, Singer has been lit up for 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. This matchup also pits two of the worst bullpens in baseball with the White Sox relief corps' entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and the Royals 'pen logging a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Prior to last night's contest, the two bullpens had combined to blow 11 saves (while converting 11) already this season. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Edward Cabrera will take the ball for the visiting Marlins. He's coming off a 2022 campaign in which he posted a terrific 3.01 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a 4.59 FIP in 14 starts, spanning 71 2/3 innings. Perhaps that was a sign of things to come as he has labored through seven outings this season, posting a 5.13 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while allowing a whopping 54-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base. He'll be starting on four days' rest for just the third time this season having allowed four earned runs in 10 innings in his previous two outings on short rest. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He owns an impressive 2.75 ERA this season but again, that doesn't tell the whole story as he has logged a 3.88 FIP. The Marlins have seemingly had Kelly's number as he has faced them three times previously, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. That includes a start here in Arizona last season in which he was tagged for three earned runs on seven hits, including a home run, over five innings in an 11-3 defeat. Like Cabrera, Kelly will also be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season having allowed seven earned runs in 11 innings in his two previous outings on short rest. The Marlins bullpen has posted a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season while the Arizona relief corps' has struggled lately to the tune of a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games. In fact, over the last seven contests, the two teams have combined to convert only two saves while blowing five. Take the over (8*).

American League Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mariners wasted another terrific outing from Logan Gilbert in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers to open this series last night. Now 4.5 games back of division-leading Texas and looking up at three teams in the American League West standings, I look for Seattle to answer back on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers. He had an outlier of a season with the Dodgers last year, an injury-shortened one at that, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work and that earned him a $12 million contract in the offseason. Not surprisingly, he hasn't been able to reach the same heights back in the American League this year, logging a 6.18 FIP and 1.30 WHIP through six starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. The Mariners will likely be happy to see their old friend (Heaney spent the majority of his career with the division-rival Angels), noting that they're 8-7 all time against him as he has recorded a lofty 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. After finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season he's picked up right where he left off here in 2023. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.05 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, allowing just 39-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. Note that he's faced the Rangers four times previously with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 with three of those wins coming by two runs or more. While it didn't play out that way last night, the two bullpens in this matchup entered the series heading in opposite directions with the Rangers 'pen having logged a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven games and the Mariners relief corps' having posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the same stretch. Rather than lay the considerable chalk with the Mariners here, we'll sacrifice a run and back them on the run-line, noting that 13 of their 17 victories this season have come by two runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday and I expect more of the same as they open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday. Jake Irvin will get the start for the visiting Nationals. He's in the Washington starting rotation due to necessity only at this point. In his first big league start he gave up just one earned run on two hits over 4 1/3 innings but did walk four batters while hitting another with a pitch (and only struck out three). Note that in five starts at the Triple-A level this season, Irvin allowed 36-of-98 batters he faced to reach base and was tagged for three home runs in 22 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday will be Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander probably hasn't been quite as good as his sparkling 2.18 ERA would indicate, logging a 3.38 FIP. He does own an impressive 0.82 WHIP as he has issued just three walks in 38 innings of work. Some regression is almost a certainty at this point and here he'll face a Nationals club that has been at its best on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington just finished a series in Arizona in which it scored 17 runs across three games. Also note that the Nats scored 28 runs on 45 hits in a three-game series here in San Francisco last year. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. Nationals relievers have combined to post a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen has been among the worst in baseball, recording a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Rangers offense has exploded lately, scoring double-digit runs in four of their last six games. You still have to figure Mariners starter Logan Gilbert will be happy to see them on Monday, noting that he owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven career starts against them with the Mariners winning five of those games. Gilbert enters this start in excellent form as he has posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 36-of-135 batters he has faced to reach base. While the Rangers have been scoring runs in bunches it still might not be enough for tonight's starter Jon Gray. He enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts in 2022 but hasn't come close to recapturing that magic so far this season, logging a 6.22 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Of the 131 batters he has faced 45 have reached base including six home runs. Strikeouts have been an issue for the Mariners lineup but Gray hasn't been missing many bats, averaging just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Behind Gray is a Rangers bullpen that started strong this season but has fallen apart lately. Entering yesterday's game, the Texas relief corps had logged a collective 5.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, Rangers relievers have blown as many saves as they've converted (five). In stark contrast, the Mariners bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season with those numbers dropping to 1.54 and 1.11, respectively, over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle (8*).

N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Sunday.

This matchup screams 'pitcher's duel' on paper with the Dodgers handing the ball to their ace Julio Urias against Joe Musgrove on Sunday. We'll go the other way, however, as neither starter has been able to find their form - at least not consistently - in the early going this season. Of course, in Joe Musgrove's defense, he's only made two starts since returning from injury. Neither outing went well, however, as he has logged an 8.16 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings of work, allowing 15-of-39 batters to reach base including four home runs allowed. Concerning is the fact that he also struggled in a pair of minor league starts, allowing 15-of-43 batters to reach base. The Dodgers saw Musgrove four times last season, scoring nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. Dodgers starter Julio Urias didn't have a good Spring, or World Baseball Classic for that matter, and has struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this season. Urias checks in sporting a 4.40 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing 45-of-160 batters he has faced to reach base. While he is coming off one of his best outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings against the slumping Phillies, he'll now be starting on short rest (four days) for the second straight outing - the first time he's done that since last season (June 29th and July 4th). Neither bullpen has been overly impressive in the early going this season. The Dodgers relief corps entered Saturday's action sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the Padres 'pen had logged a 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Needless to say, both lineups have the ability to put a lot of pressure on opposing pitching staffs and after a couple of low-scoring games to open this series, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The A's took a wild one in the series-opener between these basement-dwelling clubs last night. I expect the Royals to answer back on Saturday. Ken Waldichuk will take the ball for Oakland, giving the Royals the opportunity to face a southpaw starter for the second straight game after seeing Kyle Muller last night. Note that Kansas City is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, nearly a full run higher than its season scoring average. Waldichuk has been every bit as bad as his 7.26 ERA indicates, sporting a 7.40 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in six starts spanning 31 innings of work this season. Behind him is a majors-worst bullpen that has logged a collective 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with only three saves converted and nine blown. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He's had an up-and-down start to the 2023 campaign after pitching well for the Royals last season (3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 153 1/3 innings pitched in 2022). Singer has been marginally better than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates this season, posting a 5.05 FIP and 1.52 WHIP (still ugly numbers, I know). After turning in arguably his best start of the young season in Arizona two outings back, he made his next appearance on short (four days) rest in Minnesota and proceeded to get shelled for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He's back on schedule here, pitching on full (five days) rest and facing an A's lineup that has just one hitter that has seen him before (Tony Kemp - 0-for-9 career against Singer). Two other A's, Seth Brown and Aledmys Diaz, have worn Singer out in the past but both are currently sidelined due to injury. The Royals bullpen has been almost as bad as that of the A's so far this season. However, on a positive note, they kept a number of their key relievers idle in last night's defeat. I mentioned Oakland's penchant for collapsing late with nine blown saves already this season. In stark contrast, the Royals have converted five saves while blowing only four. While Kansas City has just two home victories to its credit this season, both came by multiple runs. On the flip side, nine of the A's 11 road defeats have come by at least two runs with seven of those coming by four runs or more. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter Friday's series-opener riding 'over' streaks with the Red Sox having seen each of their last four games (all against the Blue Jays) sail 'over' the total and the Phillies coming off a three-game set against the Dodgers in which all three contests went 'over' the total as well. I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday. One week ago tonight the Red Sox put plenty of pressure on Guardians ace Shane Bieber but couldn't break through in a 5-2 defeat. Since then, they've exploded for 8, 7, 6, 7, 8 and 11 runs over their last six games. Of course, they've also allowed five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 contests but we'll get to that in a moment. While the Sox draw a tough matchup in Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Friday, I'm confident they'll be able to find continued success. After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has turned it around over his last several starts, lowering his FIP to 2.54 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those numbers are relatively on par with what we've seen from the underrated right-hander going back to the start of 2021. With that being said, I do think he's in for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed (he's given up just one in 32 2/3 innings of work this season) and what better opponent to contribute to that than the Red Sox, who have already mashed 46 home runs this season. I'll also point out that Wheeler has yet to work beyond the sixth inning this season and just twice in his last 18 outings going back to last year, leaving the door open for a struggling Phillies bullpen to step in and make things interesting, noting it has logged a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Chris Sale will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. He was terrific in his most recent outing against the slumping Guardians. That start came at home, where he's pitched reasonably well this season. The road has been another story as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three outings spanning 14 innings of work. Overall, Sale checks in sporting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP with 47 of the 134 batters he has faced reaching base. He'll be up against a rejuvenated Phillies lineup that just welcomed back Bryce Harper earlier this week. Harper proceeded to go 3-for-3 in his second game back. Table-setter Trea Turner enters this series on a five-game hitting streak. There's danger up and down the Philadelphia lineup and this is obviously a team built for its home ballpark, averaging 4.6 runs per game in 13 home games so far this season (compared to its season scoring average of 4.3 rpg). The Red Sox bullpen has held up well, much better than I expected at the outset of the season, logging a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, it does enter this contest having not had a day off since April 27th and we're talking about a relief corps that has been overworked, having already been called into action for 128 1/3 innings this season. I can't help but think some regression will be coming for the Boston 'pen and the Phillies lineup poses a significant challenge. Take the over (10*).

A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday.

Mariners starter George Kirby was a hard-luck loser in his most recent outing, working eight dominant innings against the Phillies but ultimately falling short in a 1-0 defeat. His 2-2 record through five starts overshadows just how effective he's been in his second big league season. Kirby checks in sporting a terrific 2.93 ERA but he's arguably been even better than that, logging a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Of the 120 batters he has faced, only 31 have reached base, including just a single home run allowed and a ridiculous two walks issued. While Kirby's results against the A's were a mixed bag in four starts last season (ERA north of four), most of the damage was done by players no longer on the A's roster (Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt in particular). His counterpart on Thursday will be Drew Rucinski. The right-hander likely wouldn't be starting in most other big league rotations but such is the state of the A's pitching staff. Rucinski checks in sporting a 5.83 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I realize we're talking about a small sample size but the fact that 12 of the 28 batters he has faced have reached base is alarming. Also note that prior to getting called up, Rucinski had posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings at the minor league level this season. Prior to that, he hadn't pitched with any major league organization since he was a member of the Marlins back in 2018. Of course, it's the A's bullpen that is even more concerning. Oakland relievers have combined to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season with only three saves converted and a whopping nine blown. Contrast that with the Mariners 'pen, which has logged a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 1.21 and 1.12, respectively, over the last seven games. Seattle relievers have combined to close out 10 saves while blowing just four. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Brewers have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series against the lowly Rockies but they're well-positioned to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon as they send veteran left-hander Wade Miley to the hill against Connor Seabold of the Rockies. Miley is having a fine campaign. While he's probably not pitching quite as well as his sparkling 1.86 ERA would indicate, he's still been incredibly effective, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through five starts spanning 29 innings of work. Only 30 of the 115 batters Miley has faced have managed to reach base. Meanwhile, Colorado will give Connor Seabold a turn in the rotation after he failed to cut it with the Red Sox (a fairly pitching-starved team right now). In 18 1/3 big league innings last year, Seabold was lit up to the tune of a 6.38 FIP and 2.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-98 batters to reach base. He's been a little better pitching out of the bullpen for Colorado so far this season but that's not saying much. Seabold still owns a 3.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP, allowing 25-of-65 batters to reach base. It rarely gets better for the Rockies as the game progresses, noting that their bullpen has logged a collective 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with four saves converted and three blown this season. Compare that to the Brewers 'pen, which has recorded a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting nine saves and blowing just four. It's also worth noting that Colorado's 'pen has been pressed into action for just shy of 20 innings more than that of Milwaukee. Take Milwaukee (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The first two games of this series have been of the low-scoring variety with the two teams trading victories. I expect a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale in the Bronx. Shane Bieber will take the ball for the visiting Guardians. While he's pitched well in the early going this season, he perhaps hasn't quite lived up to lofty expectations. Note that his 3.63 FIP would serve as a career-high while his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings would mark a career-low. In his most recent start last Friday, he worked himself in and out of trouble on numerous occasions in an eventual 5-2 win over the Red Sox. Note that Bieber has recorded more than four strikeouts in a game only once in six starts this season and that's despite working at least into the sixth inning in all six of those outings. I'll also point out that this will be his first start on short (four days) rest this season. He owns a 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt remains in the Yankees starting rotation out of necessity only. You have to wonder if he's long for a big league rotation based on how things have gone for the right-hander so far this season. Schmidt checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 25 innings of work - a far cry from the 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP he posted mostly working out of the bullpen last year. Of the 119 batters Schmidt has faced this season, 44 have reached base. He's already been tagged for seven home runs. Now he faces a Guardians lineup that as I've mentioned on numerous occasions this season is ultra-aggressive and has speed to burn on the basepaths, having already racked up 35 stolen bases this season. They're going to apply plenty of pressure on Schmidt and you have to figure they're in line for a breakout performance after being held to just six runs over the last three games. Note that Cleveland entered last night's contest averaging 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. Both bullpens are elite and have certainly excelled so far this season. I will point out that the Yankees have used key reliever Wandy Peralta in each of the first two games in this series meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Guardians 'pen has been dealing with a tough stretch from usually-reliable setup man James Karinchak. I do think the terrific overall numbers from both relief corps' have been properly factored in when you consider this relatively-low posted total. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The series-opener between these two teams sailed 'over' the total last night as the Padres cruised to an 8-3 victory - their third win in a row. After a red hot stretch at the plate last week (30 runs in four games), Cincinnati has cooled off, scoring only 10 runs over their last three contests. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Petco Park on Tuesday. Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball, noting that he posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 105 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year - not bad numbers at all when you consider the majority of his starts take place at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. So far this season, Ashcraft has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, working at least six innings in four of his five starts to date. Note that he held opponents to less than 1.0 home run and 3.0 walks per nine innings last season. He's once again keeping the ball in the park this year, yielding just one home run in 30 frames of work - that coming in his first outing of the season. His walks are up but I am confident he can regain his command and he's made up for it by increasing his strikeouts per nine innings and limiting his hits allowed. All told, only 36-of-123 batters he has faced have reached base. With only 16 stolen bases so far this season, the Padres don't tend to put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with men on base. Note also that San Diego entered this series averaging just 3.2 runs per game at Petco Park this season. Veteran Michael Wacha will take the ball for the Padres. He's been better than his inflated 6.75 ERA would indicate, logging a 4.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP through five starts. Not impressive numbers by any means but they're largely due to consecutive rocky outings in mid-April. He pitched reasonably well last time out, holding a good Cubs lineup to four hits, one walk and three earned runs over five innings. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that I believe is in for some positive regression having entered this series sporting a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On a positive note, San Diego has converted 11 saves while blowing only four (entering Monday's action). The Reds bullpen has actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. Entering this series, Cincinnati relievers had logged a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Blown saves have been an issue with six on the season but the Reds don't project to be playing with a lead late in this game (of course it's always a possibility). Both teams were able to keep most of their key relievers rested last night, especially the Padres, who got six solid innings from starter Blake Snell and only used two relief arms in Steven Wilson and Domingo Tapia. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring weekend series'. In fact, the Phillies saw all three games in Houston stay 'under' the total and enter the new week on a four-game 'under' streak. Meanwhile, the Dodgers seven-game 'over' streak ground to a halt in a 1-0 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday before yesterday's game snuck 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker. He's had a bit of a rocky start to the campaign and doesn't figure to turn it around against a Dodgers club that has given him plenty of trouble over the course of his career (4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 12 career starts against them). Last season, Walker faced the Dodgers twice, allowing five earned runs on 12 hits and four walks while striking out only seven in 11 innings. So far this season, Walker has been about as bad as his 4.97 ERA indicates, sporting a 5.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP with 35 of the 108 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his second start of the season after a brief return last week. He's certainly not in midseason form just yet, noting that he has allowed five walks in just 6 1/3 innings split between Triple-A and the bigs so far this season. The Phillies are seeing right-handed starters well this season, averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. Note that Gonsolin is unlikely to work deep into this game in just his second start back from injury and that's notable as the Dodgers bullpen hasn't been nearly as steady as we've become accustomed to, logging a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so far this season. It's been a similar story for the Phillies bullpen, which has posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Pirates with a 7-2 victory yesterday, also marking their second straight 'over' result. Note that they've recorded an 'over' streak lasting three games only once previously this season and that came during a series at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the visiting Cubs on Monday. He of course flirted with a perfect game two starts back before allowing two earned runs over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Padres last time out. There's no denying Smyly has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, recording a 3.24 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. He's allowed just 28 of the 110 batters he has faced to reach base. In his lone outing against Washington last season, Smyly gave up just two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work in a 3-2 victory here in D.C. Of note, neither of Smyly's last two starts have stayed 'under' the total. He hasn't gone three consecutive outings without an 'under' result since back in 2021 when he posted a five-start 'over' streak. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was one of the big pieces coming over in the Juan Soto trade last Summer. Gore has been good but not great so far this season although his numbers are somewhat skewed by one bad outing in which he couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Angels back on April 12th (that game still totalled only five runs). Through five starts, the left-hander has logged a 3.53 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Walks have certainly been an issue as he has handed out north of 5.0 free passes per nine innings. However, Gore does have the ability to erase those walks thanks to his high strikeout rate. He is K'ing just shy of 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Cubs should help his cause, noting that they've already struck out 224 times this season - an average of over eight K's per game. The two bullpens are a bit of a mixed bag. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP but have converted only three saves while blowing four. Meanwhile, the Nationals 'pen has recorded a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with seven saves converted and four blown. What I do like about the two bullpens is the fact that neither has been truly overworked with the Cubs logging 97 1/3 innings and the Nats' working 96 2/3 frames. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday after Friday's series-opener produced a whopping 18 total runs. I'm expecting more in the way of offense on Sunday as the Reds send Nick Lodolo to the mound against Ken Waldichuk of the A's. Lodolo finished sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting last season but hasn't been able to recapture that same form here in 2023, logging a 4.92 FIP and 1.87 WHIP. Of the 125 batters Lodolo has faced, 52 have reached base. While the A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball, we did see they're capable of rising up on occasion in Friday's seven-run outburst and I do think they're well-positioned to produce on Sunday as well. Waldichuk may not be long for a big league rotation based on how his career has started. He was good but certainly not great in 30-plus innings last year but 2023 has been disastrous. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.82 ERA indicates, perhaps even worse, posting a 8.10 FIP and 1.74 WHIP while allowing 46 of the 119 batters he has faced to reach base. Worse still, he's already been tagged for nine home runs - that's north of 3.0 long balls per nine innings. Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that has been dreadful this season, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 7.03 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Keep in mind, Oakland blew yesterday's game in the ninth inning, coughing up a 2-1 lead in a 3-2 defeat. The Reds 'pen entered Saturday's action having logged a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP but has blown five saves. Take the over (8*).

American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

With last night's 5-2 victory here at Fenway Park, the Guardians have now seen four straight and nine of their last 10 games overall stay 'under' the total. Last night's contest certainly appeared headed in the other direction before the scoring fizzled late. Keep in mind, Boston has posted an 8-3 o/u mark over its last 11 games. I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Beantown. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He's probably been better than his 6.50 ERA this season but that's not saying much as he still owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.83 WHIP. We can certainly expect some regression to the mean in terms of his hits allowed as he's currently giving up a ridiculous 14.5 hits per nine innings. However, that doesn't mean that a matchup with the Red Sox at Fenway Park is an ideal spot to turn things around. Note that Boston has seen Plesac once in each of the last two seasons, plating six earned runs on 11 hits in 10 innings. Brayan Bello will counter for the Red Sox. While he's had plenty of success at the minor league level going back to the start of last season, that hasn't translated over to the bigs. He owns a 6.35 FIP and 2.18 WHIP in two outings so far this season, allowing nearly half (17) of the batters he's faced (39) to reach base. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, if you're going to put runners on base against the Guardians, you're likely going to pay for it as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths, stealing 31 bases already this season. Cleveland used two of its key bullpen arms to close out last night's game in Trevor Stephan and closer Emmanuel Clase. That duo has worked in each of the last two games but did have a day off on Thursday. With setup man James Karinchak struggling lately, they could be used again on Saturday and I simply question whether they can be as effective as usual. The Red Sox bullpen has exceeded expectations this season, logging a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP entering this series. I do expect to see some regression from their relief corps moving forward, noting that we already saw some of that heading into this series with Sox relievers having posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. They're in a favorable spot as far as bullpen rest goes after Kutter Crawford finished the game with four solid innings in relief of starter Nick Pivetta last night. But again, I like the matchup for the Guardians bats regardless who the Red Sox trot out to the mound. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The A's early season slide continued last night as they dropped an 11-7 decision in the opener of this Interleague series. Cincinnati has quietly reeled off four straight wins and I don't expect it to break stride on Saturday afternoon at the Coliseum. Hunter Greene will take the ball for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball right now. He posted a respectable 4.37 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while logging 125 2/3 innings at the big league level last season and has been even better so far this year. Greene checks in sporting a 2.48 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through five starts, spanning 23 innings of work. After struggling a bit in his first two starts of the season, the right-hander has settled in, allowing only four earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only two over his last three outings covering a span of 15 innings. It's a much different story for A's starter Kyle Muller. He was of course a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta. I have to wonder if the book is out on the young left-hander as he has been lit up in each of his last three starts. Muller has logged a 5.33 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings so far in 2023. He has allowed 50 of the 119 batters he's faced to reach base. That's not good news as he prepares to face a Reds club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, hitting a collective .278 while averaging north of 6.0 runs per game. Behind Muller is an A's bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with those numbers only getting worse after last night's debacle. On the flip side, the Reds 'pen has impressed, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering this series but even better, a 1.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over the last seven games. Closing out games has been a bit of an issue, already with five blown saves on the campaign, but my thought here is that their lead will be big enough late to keep that wart hidden. Take Cincinnati (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Guardians have been scuffing their heels lately and are coming off another losing series, this one at the hands of the lowly Rockies. With that being said, I like their chances of opening this series in Boston on a positive note on Friday. Shane Bieber will take the ball for Cleveland. He hasn't necessarily been dominant in his first five turns in the rotation this season, particularly over his last couple of outings, but he still owns a solid 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP and given his career-high FIP was 3.32 back in 2019, I expect some positive regression to the mean moving forward. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's arguably been worse than his 4.58 ERA would indicate, logging a 5.18 FIP and 1.37 WHIP through his first four outings. I've never felt he's a great fit for Fenway Park in Boston and so far this season he's given up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. While the Guardians bullpen has only been marginally better than the Red Sox 'pen, I would anticipate the numbers diverging as time goes on. We always like to support the Guardians when their elite bullpen is rested, as is the case here following an off day on Thursday. Note that Cleveland's relief corps has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen has held up well considering it has been overworked, already logging north of 100 innings on the season. We have seen some signs of regression lately though as Boston relievers have posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

We'll take a flyer on the Mariners after they dropped the middle game of this three-game series last night. George Kirby will take the ball for Seattle. He's arguably been better than his 3.57 ERA indicates this season, logging a 2.81 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while allowing only 26-of-92 batters he's faced to reach base. I like the fact that Kirby has worked at least six innings in three of four starts to date, perhaps taking some of the pressure off of a Mariners bullpen that has been terrific but also overworked having logged north of 90 innings, collectively. Also note that Kirby has started on full rest (5+ days) in each of his first four starts this season and will do so again here. Matt Strahm will counter for Philadelphia. He tossed nine shutout innings in his first two outings this season but has allowed six earned runs in eight innings since. The hits simply haven't been dropping in against the left-hander as he has recorded a BABIP south of .230 so far this season. I do expect the Mariners lineup to put pressure on him here, noting that they check in averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Phillies average 4.9 runs per contest at home and it's worth noting that they plated six runs last night. They've gone 1-5 after scoring six or more runs in a game this season, outscored by a combined margin of 49-17 in those contests. The Mariners bullpen does own marginally better overall numbers this season but Philadelphia's relief corps has admittedly been stronger over the last week. I'm willing to consider the bullpens a wash but even with that, I think the M's have enough of a starting pitching advantage and at the plate to support them at a reasonable price here. Take Seattle (8*).

Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll often look to fade MLB teams coming off emotional, come-from-behind victories like the one we saw from the Giants last night. San Francisco has now won a season-high four games in a row after having not strung together consecutive victories on a single occasion previously. The win streak has really come out of nowhere for a team that wasn't doing anything particularly well and I expect it to grind to a halt on Wednesday. Steven Matz will take the ball for the visiting Cardinals. I think some positive regression to the mean is in order when it comes to the left-hander as he has gone winless through his first four starts this season, posting a 4.87 FIP and 1.64 WHIP along the way. Keep in mind, in his first year with the Cardinals in 2022, Matz logged a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 15 appearances spanning 48 innings of work. In his last full big league season, Matz recorded a 3.79 FIP and 1.33 WHIP in 150 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2021. Matz command simply hasn't been there in the early going as he has issued north of 4.0 walks per nine innings. I do think he can and will settle down and it's worth noting that the Giants don't put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with runners on base, with just 12 stolen bases to date this season. Behind Matz is a Cards bullpen that has pitched well (despite last night's debacle), recording a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season. That's in stark contrast to the Giants bullpen, which has logged a collective 5.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for San Francisco on Wednesday. Perhaps the opposite of Matz, some negative regression to the mean can be expected when it comes to the veteran right-hander. He has posted a 2.91 FIP and 0.88 WHIP but comes off his worst outing of the season against the Mets last Friday. After pitching lights out in his first two starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits, including two home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings. Take St. Louis (10*).

My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll fade Cubs starter Drew Smyly off his incredible brush with a Perfect Game in his most recent outing last Friday. Smyly has pitched exceptionally well over his last three starts and it has really come out of nowhere. Note that he'll be pitching on short rest (four days) here for the second straight outing, however, and I look for the Padres bats to come alive off last night's shutout defeat in the series-opener. Some regression is almost certainly in order when it comes to the veteran Smyly, noting that he has posted a 3.37 FIP and 0.91 WHIP so far this season after logging 5.11/1.37 and 4.23/1.19 splits over the last two campaigns. Michael Wacha will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been good over his last two outings but we know he's capable of giving the Padres some quality starts. After all, he had worked 12 innings and allowed just four earned runs on eight hits in his first two starts this season, including an outing in Atlanta where he tossed six shutout frames, striking out 10 along the way. Wacha owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.72 WHIP so far this season after logging a 4.14 FIP and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts spanning 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox last year. The good news here is that Wacha will be pitching on full rest (five days) for the fifth straight outing to open the campaign. While the Cubs bullpen has posted better numbers than that of the Padres so far this season there hasn't been a considerable gap. In fact, San Diego's relief corps has already converted eight saves while blowing just three while the Cubs have only two saves to their credit to go along with three blown. Take San Diego (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night but probably deserved a better fate as both teams wasted numerous scoring opportunities, not to mention the fact that seven runs were scored before the middle of the fifth inning (the game finished with nine runs). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as we arguably have an even more favorable starting pitching matchup for the hitters, not to mention the fact that both bullpens were forced to use a number of key arms in last night's contest. Brady Singer will take the ball for the Royals. Through four starts spanning 21 innings of work, Singer has recorded a 5.46 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he's faced to reach base so far this season. Not only that but he's been tagged for five home runs. It's a similar story for Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. We actually won with the 'over' in his most recent start against the Padres last week. Nelson has logged a 5.50 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first four outings this season, covering a span of 22 innings. He has only allowed 26-of-91 batters to reach base but that's had more to do with batted balls not falling in than anything else (he's giving up just 7.4 hits per nine innings but has been lit up for four home runs including three in his last two starts). It's worth mentioning that Nelson started on short rest (four days) for the first time in his big league career last time out and will have to do so for a second straight outing here. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. The Royals 'pen sports a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, converting only three saves while blowing three as well. Arizona's relief corps has logged a more respectable 4.73 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with six saves converted and four blown but used closer Andrew Chafin for 1 2/3 innings (and 30-plus pitches) last night, meaning he likely won't be available on Tuesday. Also note that the D'Backs 'pen has already worked 91 1/3 innings this season and hasn't had a day off since April 13th. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cubs had a day off on Monday to digest dropping three of four games at home against the Dodgers from Thursday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the Padres are 'fat and happy' after taking three of four games from the division-rival Diamondbacks in Arizona. I don't like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Padres as they hand the ball to Blake Snell against Justin Steele. Snell hasn't been any better than his 6.00 ERA indicates this season as he has logged a 6.04 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. The left-hander has allowed 34-of-86 batters to reach base and figures to be under plenty of pressure against a Cubs lineup that has swiped 24 bases and averages 5.8 runs per game on the campaign. Steele was quietly effective in his 24 big league starts last season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. He's arguably been even better so far this season, recording a 3.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in four starts spanning 25 innings of work. Only 23 of the 95 batters he has faced have reached base and the Padres haven't been overly aggressive on the basepaths this season, swiping only nine bases to date. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that has logged a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Padres on the other hand have posted a collective 4.45 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Over their last seven games, Padres relievers have allowed 17 earned runs in just 23 1/3 innings. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Colorado at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rockies took the opener of this series last night and it wasn't particularly close as they jumped ahead 6-0 before the end of the fifth inning and never looked back. The Guardians have admittedly been stumbling lately but I do see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Ryan Feltner will take the ball for Colorado. He hasn't been quite as bad as his six-plus ERA would indicate but he hasn't been good either. Feltner checks in sporting a 4.69 FIP and 1.68 WHIP, allowing 32-of-88 batters to reach base. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers - especially those that tend to play with fire and put men on base consistently. Note that Cleveland boasts an incredible five players ranked in the top-15 in baseball (including ties) in stolen bases this season. The Rockies bullpen held up well late night but didn't face much pressure either. Entering this series, Colorado's 'pen had logged a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while being forced to work a whopping 90 innings collectively. Rookie Peyton Battenfield will get his third start of the campaign for the Guardians. More has been asked of him due to injuries in Cleveland's starting rotation and the rookie starter has taken advantage. He enters Tuesday's outing sporting a 3.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. Of the 41 batters Battenfield has faced, only 10 have reached base. A closer look into Battenfield's background shows that he posted a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 starts at the Triple-A level last season. It's been a steady ascension through the Guardians' minor league system for the right-hander and he certainly appears ready for the opportunity to pitch at this level. Of course, Cleveland owns one of the best bullpens in baseball, even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far this season. The Guardians relief corps' has posted a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown here in 2023 (entering last night's action). They kept most of their key arms idle thanks to the lopsided result last night, including setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

These two teams met for a two-game series at Chase Field last season and the result was a pair of slugfests with each contest totalling exactly 14 runs. While I'm not sure we see that many runs on Monday, I do think the total will prove too low once again. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller for his fifth start of the season. While he has posted a solid 3.00 ERA that doesn't tell the whole story as he owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The hits haven't necessarily been falling in against him but that's likely to change as he has given up considerably more hits than innings pitched in each of his last two seasons. Note that of the 87 batters Keller has faced, 29 have reached base. The Diamondbacks are a team I would classify as being a handful to deal with when getting on base, racking up 20 stolen bases so far this season. Behind Keller is a Royals bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.69 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with only three saves converted and three blown. Tommy Henry gets the call-up and will make his first start of the season for the D'Backs. He found some success early last season but it seemed the book was out on him late as he allowed 18 earned runs in just 19 1/3 innings of work over his last four starts. Henry ended up logging a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in his rookie campaign. Things haven't gone swimmingly for him in the early going at the Triple-A level this season as he has recorded a 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Of the 91 batters he has faced at that level, 32 have reached base. Arizona's bullpen could be in tough in this series noting that the D'Backs haven't had a day off since April 23rd and their relief corps has struggled at the best of times, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with six saves converted and three blown. The Royals scored more runs in yesterday's game (11) than they had in their previous five contests (9), perhaps providing a spark as this three-game series begins. Take the over (10*).

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

We resisted the temptation to back the Twins on the run-line yesterday after they dropped the opener of this series on Friday night, thankfully so as they got drilled in the second game of this series. They'll look to avoid the unlikely series sweep at the hands of the Nationals on Sunday afternoon and I'm confident they can do just that in convincing fashion. Patrick Corbin will get another turn in the Washington rotation, despite his struggles continuing in the early going this season. Corbin has been just about as bad as his 6.30 ERA indicates, recording a 4.91 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 35-of-96 batters to reach base. I do think the Twins have a similar lineup to the Guardians in terms of their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths and that particular order gave him plenty of trouble in his most recent start. The presence of Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins may give some bettors pause but I'm not sure that it should. Ober quietly recorded a 2.92 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 56 innings of work last season but was the odd man out in terms of the Twins rotation to start this season after the acquisition of Pablo Lopez. Due to injuries, there is an opportunity for Ober to perhaps stick at the big league level for a bit should he perform well here. Note that the right-hander had been pitching well at Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a 22:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 17 2/3 innings this season. The Nationals bullpen has actually outperformed that of the Twins so far this season, but similar to what I alluded to in my Dodgers-Cubs writeup yesterday, I would anticipate that script flipping as the season goes on. Note that the Minnesota 'pen is still one of the fresher relief corps' in baseball having only logged a collective 69 innings this season. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday's game, the Twins were able to keep their key relievers off the mound with recent call-up Simeon Woods Richardson logging a key 4 2/3 innings in relief in Saturday's contest. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

I'm willing to pay up to back the Rays in Game 2 of this series against the White Sox after they probably had no business winning last night's game (but did anyway). Chicago's bullpen continues to implode game-after-game. It entered this series sporting a collective 6.68 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and those numbers only got worse after last night's debacle. On a positive note for Chicago, Dylan Cease will get the start on Saturday. He's faced the Rays three times previously and has never lasted a full six innings. Cease enters this start sporting a sparkling 2.01 ERA this season but probably hasn't been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 3.34 FIP with 28-of-99 batters he has faced reaching base despite hits falling in at an unusually low rate. The Rays will of course put pressure on the best of pitchers and remain one of the healthiest lineups in baseball as we approach the end of April. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to its own ace, Shane McClanahan. He's been outstanding through his first four starts this season with the Rays winning all four of those games. McClanahan has posted a 2.43 FIP and 1.13 WHIP and has yet to give up a home run. Again, the bullpen matchup in this series is no contest, noting that Tampa Bay relievers entered last night's action with a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting three saves without blowing a single one. With the White Sox still sorely missing table-setter Tim Anderson at the top of their lineup, I look for the Rays to put another one past them on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers were a no-show yesterday after taking the opener of this four-game set on Thursday. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Dustin May against Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs. May is off to a terrific start this season but did get roughed up at the hands of the Mets last time out. The right-hander still owns a solid 3.80 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I like his chances of rebounding against a Cubs offense that isn’t as good as it showed in yesterday’s 13-0 rout. Note that only 23-of-92 batters May has faced have reached base this season. That’s in stark contrast to his counterpart Wesneski, who has allowed 23-of-61 batters aboard. Wesneski did silence the lowly A’s bats last time out but still owns an ERA and FIP north of six this season. While he does have terrific stuff, he’s not really fooling a lot of big league hitters right now with only 11 strikeouts in 13 innings of work this season. While the Cubs bullpen has been more effective than that of the Dodgers so far this season I do expect that script to flip as time goes on. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday’s defeat the Dodgers have their key relievers fresh for this contest. Take Los Angeles (8*).

National League Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 10:15 pm et on Friday.

The Mets entered the week on a four-game winning streak and have stayed hot, first taking two of three games from the mighty Dodgers in Los Angeles and then defeating the down-trodden Giants 9-4 in last night's series-opener in San Francisco. I look for their streak to grind to a halt on Friday, however, as they send Joey Lucchesi to the mound for his first big league start since 2021 against Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The plan probably wasn't for Lucchesi to be dropped into the starting rotation so early this season but the Mets are desperate with Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco sidelined due to injuries and Max Scherzer now suspended for 10 games for using an illegal substance. Lucchesi will be making his first big league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has made three starts at the minor league level this season, recording an impressive 2.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, 18-of-64 batters he has faced have reached base and he was tagged for a pair of home runs in 15 2/3 innings of work so it's not as if he's been setting the Triple-A circuit on fire. It remains to be seen how deep he can work into a game and the Mets bullpen is a bit taxed at this point, having already logged 75 1/3 innings and not having had a day off since April 13th. DeSclafani has been sharp in his first three starts for the Giants this season. While he's bound to suffer some regression as he enters sporting a 1.42 ERA, his 2.34 FIP and 0.63 WHIP indicate he's pitching well without the help of smoke-and-mirrors. Only 12 of the 68 batters he has faced have reached base through his 19 innings of work this season. This will be a 'revenge game' of sorts for DeSclafani after he allowed five earned runs on nine hits over five innings against the Mets last April. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here as he was pitching on short rest (four days) in that previous outing against them and certainly wasn't in the same form he is now, noting that he battled injuries from that start on last year, ultimately making only two more trips to the hill (two months later) before being shut down for the season. Behind DeSclafani is a Giants bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season but does come in relatively fresh after Tristan Beck did yeoman's work last night, tossing 5 1/3 innings in relief of an ineffective Sean Manaea, just one day after getting called from the minors. On the flip side, the Mets were forced to use key reliever Drew Smith for the second straight game (and third in the last four) meaning he likely won't be available for Friday's game. Remember, New York is already without closer Edwin Diaz and Stephen Nogosek due to injuries. Take San Francisco (10*).

N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday.

You have to figure the Padres offense is going to explode sooner rather than later after being held to a grand total of two runs over their last four games and four runs or less in nine of their last 10 contests (they scored 10 runs in the lone outlier over that stretch). I actually like the way this spot sets up for the San Diego bats. Note that the Padres will be seeing Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson for the fourth time going back to last season. That's notable when you consider Nelson will only be making his seventh career big league start. Since getting shut down by Nelson in their first look at him last September, they've plated six earned runs on nine hits over just 10 1/3 innings against him, including a 5-4 loss at home back on April 3rd. San Diego has struggled mightily at the plate at home this season but has been much more productive on the road, where it averages 4.4 runs per game (compared to its season scoring average of 3.6 rpg). Here, we'll note that Nelson will be making his first career start on short (four days') rest. Note that while he has recorded a respectable 3.71 ERA so far this season, his 4.56 FIP tells a different story. After striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings in limited work last season, Nelson has seen that number drop to 5.3 this year. Michael Wacha will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's had an up-and-down start to the campaign, most recently getting shelled by the red hot Brewers last time out. Wacha hasn't been quite as bad as his 6.06 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either, recording a 4.79 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 24 of the 70 batters he's faced to reach base. I expect him to labor against a D'Backs lineup that can wear you out. Similar to the Guardians (who we won with yesterday), Arizona has speed to burn and is aggressive on the basepaths, with 19 stolen bases so far this season. While Wacha enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts with the Red Sox in 2022, his numbers have generally been on the decline and while he's capable of giving the Padres some quality innings, there are going to be some rough outings in the mix as well, as we saw in his most recent start. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that hasn't enjoyed a day off since April 5th. San Diego relievers have logged a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and have just 19 strikeouts compared to 14 walks over their last 25 innings of work. The D'Backs bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with those numbers ballooning to a 6.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. It's been a week since Arizona had a day off and with a number of recent high-scoring games, its bullpen has been taxed. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Red Sox took the opener of this series in extra innings last night but I look for the Twins to answer back on Wednesday. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He has posted terrific numbers through his first three starts this season and it hasn't had anything to do with smoke-and-mirrors. Ryan owns a 2.84 ERA and a 3.10 WHIP not to mention a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. Of the 70 batters he has faced, only 12 have reached base. Keep in mind, the right-hander posted a solid 3.99 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in his first full big league season last year. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, converting five saves and blowing only two. Red Sox starter Corey Kluber has labored through his first three starts this season and he's been every bit as bad as his 6.92 ERA indicates, logging a 6.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP in 13 innings of work. In stark contrast to Ryan, Kluber has allowed 19 of the 57 batters he has faced to reach base. The Red Sox bullpen has held up well but there's reason for concern as they've already logged a whopping 76 1/3 innings. Over the last seven games alone Red Sox relievers have worked 29 2/3 innings. Compare that to the Twins relief corps, which has been called into action for just 52 1/3 innings this season. Take Minnesota (8*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Guardians have lost three games in a row including a double-header sweep at the hands of the Tigers yesterday. All three of those contests could have gone either way as they were all decided by a single run. I expect to see the Guardians offense wake up on Wednesday afternoon as they face Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers. Turnbull hasn't been as bad as his inflated 9.00 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.92 WHIP through 13 innings of work. The Tigers have been careful with him as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, the Guardians are a taxing opponent to face as they put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Here, they'll be facing Turnbull who has had a tendency to put a lot of runners on with 27 of the 63 batters he has faced reaching base so far this season. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that held up well in yesterday's double-header but entered the day sporting a collective 5.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with only two saves converted and three blown this season. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for the Guardians. He has posted similar numbers to those of Turnbull so far this season. He hasn't had as much of an issue with his command, however, and will be facing the weaker of the two lineups in this contest (note that the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters last night finished the game batting .189, .189 and .167, respectively). The hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate against Quantrill so far this season (12.1 hits allowed per nine innings) when you consider that he has only allowed more hits than innings pitched in one of his previous four big league seasons - that in his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2019). Quantrill has alternated good and bad outings against the Tigers over the course of his career but the Guardians have won his last two starts against them by a combined 18-4 score. Cleveland's bullpen entered yesterday's action with a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in tow and didn't end up using closer Emmanuel Clase, keeping him fresh in case he's called upon on Wednesday afternoon. Take Cleveland (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mets took the opener of this series by a score of 8-6 last night as the Dodgers fell below the .500 mark once again. I look for Los Angeles to answer back behind veteran starter Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Tylor Megill. While he owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA through his first three starts this season, his 4.64 FIP tells a different story. Megill isn't really fooling many hitters with a 1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 16 innings of work. Of the 65 batters he has faced, 19 have reached base. Note that Megill is headed into uncharted territory riding a five-game team win streak in his starts going back to last season. He's accomplished that feat once previously in his career with the Mets losing his next outing by a 9-2 score against the Braves, at home no less. Kershaw is off to a solid if not spectacular start this season having logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. His command has been there as he has recorded 8.5 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings. Note that Kershaw faced the Mets once last season and was effective, allowing just one earned run (on only one hit) while striking out six and walking three over five innings. The Dodgers have gone an incredible 15-3 in Kershaw's 18 career outings against New York but again, only last year's start was all that relevant as that was his first start against the Mets since 2019. The Mets bullpen has been terrific despite missing some key arms due to injury. However, I am concerned with the fact that their relief corps has already logged 62 1/3 innings. The Dodgers did save some of their key bullpen arms thanks to trailing by multiple runs over the game's final three innings last night. I certainly anticipate positive regression from the Los Angeles 'pen as it has uncharacteristically struggled so far this season, recording a collective 4.97 and 1.53 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in Houston on Monday. Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's off to a fine start to the campaign having posted a 2.57 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through his first three starts, allowing just 20-of-79 batters he's faced to reach base. With that said, he was visibly frustrated after allowing a pair of home runs (the first two he's given up this season) against the light-hitting Tigers in an otherwise fine outing last week. Keeping in mind, Gausman received A.L. Cy Young Award votes last year, logging a 2.38 FIP and 1.24 WHIP I expect the right-hander to keep up his strong pitching here. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He'll be looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the young season against the Pirates last week. Javier was of course a breakout star for the Astros last season, proving invaluable in the postseason to earn a lucrative five-year contract extension in the offseason. He had a fine Spring and still owns a solid 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first three regular season starts. While the hits have been falling in against him, I would anticipate him getting that sorted out sooner rather than later, noting that he has allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings over the course of his 3+ year big league career. Note that despite his up-and-down start, Javier has actually allowed only 21-of-71 batters he's faced to reach base. Both teams kept their key bullpen arms fresh yesterday thanks to lopsided defeats. Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano should be available after suffering a rib contusion on Saturday. Note that the Jays 'pen has recorded a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season while the Astros relief corps has had little to do with the team's slow start, logging a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland at Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

While the scoring fizzled in the second half of the game, last night's contest between these two teams did find its way 'over' the total. I expect a similar result on Sunday as the Guardians look to wrap up a series sweep with ace Shane Bieber taking the ball against Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Bieber has been terrific as expected in the early going this season. I do think some regression is in store, however, noting that he has posted a 2.52 FIP and 0.95 WHIP through his first three outings after logging a 2.87 FIP and 1.04 WHIP last year (he finished seventh in A.L. Cy Young Award voting). Note that the Nationals have faced their share of tough pitchers at home already this season with their previous two series' in the host role coming against the Braves and Rays. Yet they've still averaged 3.0 runs per game here at Nationals Park and 3.5 rpg when facing right-handed starting pitching, as will be the case today. It's also worth noting that the Guardians have used setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase in each of the last two games so they'll either be unavailable or see their effectiveness diminished on Sunday. On the flip side, much like last night against Chad Kuhl, the Guardians should have little trouble getting to Nats' starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 2.14 WHIP this season. Of the 71 batters he has faced, 30 have reached base. As I noted in yesterday's analysis of the Guardians, they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths and I'm confident we'll see them knock Corbin off his game early on Sunday. Behind Corbin is a pedestrian Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown this season. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The 'under' cashed in the opener of this series last night as the Guardians prevailed by a 4-3 score in a well-pitched game from both sides. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland sends Zach Plesac to the mound against Chad Kuhl of the Nationals. Plesac has posted rather pedestrian numbers throughout his 4+ year big league career. Things haven't gone well for the right-hander through two outings this year as he has recorded a 5.62 FIP and 1.75 WHIP. That includes a start on the road against the light-hitting A's in which he allowed six earned runs in a single inning of work. He did bounce back nicely in his home debut against the Mariners but I certainly don't anticipate seeing him completely shut down the Nationals here. Note that the Guardians used three of their best relievers in last night's game, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase each logged an inning. While that doesn't mean they won't be available on Saturday, we could see diminished effectiveness. I expect Washington starter Chad Kuhl to have a tough time containing the Cleveland offense here. The Guardians put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their aggressive base-running and speed on the basepaths. That's not to mention the fact that they know how to work the counts and see a lot of pitches. Kuhl has logged a 7.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 16-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind Kuhl is an average-at-best Nats' bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I think this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games on Friday's MLB board but not necessarily because it projects as high-scoring. We actually have a solid starting pitching matchup as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele and the Dodgers counter with Noah Syndergaard. Steele had an impressive 2022 campaign, recording a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. Command was an issue and has been through his first two outings this season as well but he's managed to limit the damage thanks to keeping his hits allowed down and strikeouts up. While Steele's last outing did find its way 'over' the total in a blowout win over the Rangers, he hasn't seen consecutive starts go 'over' the total since last June. It's a similar story for Syndergaard. His last start went 'over' the total but he's only posted consecutive 'over' results once since last June. Speaking of that last start, it was an ugly one as Syndergaard allowed six earned runs on eight hits over just four innings, clearly the D'Backs had his number seeing him for the second time in six days. That performance skewed his early season numbers as he was actually sharp in his debut, right here at home at Dodger Stadium, holding the same D'Backs to just one earned run over six innings. Both bullpens have been good but not great in the early going. I would certainly expect the Dodgers relief corps to rank among the best in baseball before too long. I like the fact that both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday given both bullpens have worked north of 40 innings already this season. Cubs and Dodgers relievers have combined to record an impressive 93:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 in the Cubs last 18 games following an off day going back to last season, resulting in an average total of just 6.5 runs in that situation. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The A's actually had a bit of an offensive explosion over the final three games of their series in Baltimore but managed just one victory. Here, I look for the Oakland offense to go back in the tank as it returns home to cavernous O.co Coliseum to host the Mets. Kodai Senga will get his third big league start for the Mets. While his command hasn't necessarily been there just yet (six walks through 11 1/3 innings, there's no question he has been impressive, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be James Kaprielian. I question whether the A's right-hander is long for a big league rotation at this point. He's been in the majors full-time since 2021 and has logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. The book is effectively out on Kaprielian and I look for the Mets to be next in line to take advantage on Friday. Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that doesn't even get a chance to catch its breath after another wild, high-scoring game in Baltimore yesterday. The A's have already logged 55 innings in relief, posting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and lost an arm to injury in Domingo Acevedo during the series in Baltimore. New York's 'pen is still missing closer Edwin Diaz but has been impressive nonetheless, recording a 3.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

It seems that every year the White Sox carry high hopes into the season residing in a seemingly manageable American League Central but here we are a couple of weeks into the season and they're already four games back of first place looking up at both the Guardians and Twins. Coming off consecutive losses in Minnesota and missing table-setter Tim Anderson due to injury, I look for them to fall short again as they open this series with the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore just took three of four games from Oakland, scoring 29 runs in the process. I look for it to keep up its hot streak at the plate here against Chicago starter Mike Clevinger. He has posted a 3.68 FIP but an ugly 1.55 WHIP through two outings, allowing 18-of-49 batters he has faced to reach base. Inconsistency has been Clevinger's calling card throughout his big league career and I expect that to be a storyline thorughout this season as well. Behind Clevinger is a White Sox bullpen that has been among baseball's worst so far this season, recording a collective 7.01 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. That's in stark contrast to the O's relief corps' which has posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. I don't know that too much will be asked of Baltimore's 'pen in this one with Tyler Wells starting. He has posted a 4.30 FIP but an impressive 0.55 WHIP through two outings (one in long relief) spanning 11 innings so far this season. Only six of the 39 batters Wells has faced have managed to reach base. Across parts of three big league seasons, Wells has allowed just 7.1 hits, 1.4 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings, only lagging behind Clevinger in one of those departments (home runs allowed). Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Twins managed to pull out a series victory over the division-rival White Sox after dropping the opener earlier in the week and they did it thanks in large part to their pitching staff. Minnesota is playing with a fairly slim margin for error right now as it continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Twins could be without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Alex Kirillof and Jorge Polanco for this game with only Buxton and Correa even having an outside chance at starting. Not surprisingly, the Twinkies have plated just 11 runs over their last four games with some help from extra innings over that stretch. While I do like Minnesota starter Joe Ryan, I can't help but feel he'll be asked to do a little too much on Thursday. Note that he's made just one previous start against the Yankees, that coming last September in a 7-1 defeat here in the Bronx. Ryan has already allowed two home runs in as many starts this season despite those two outings coming in predominantly 'pitcher's parks' in Kansas City and Minnesota. While the Twins bullpen is outstanding, it did use two of its key late-inning arms in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in each of the last two days. The Yankees will hand the ball to impressive rookie start Jhony Brito. We won with the Yanks in his most recent start in Baltimore last Saturday. While he didn't have his best stuff in that contest, he still allowed just one earned run over five innings. Brito has posted a 2.70 FIP and 0.80 WHIP through two big league outings this season. Like the Twins, the Yankees have an elite bullpen that enters Thursday's action sporting a collective 1.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with four saves converted and only one blown. Take New York (8*).

A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday.

I think we're dealing with a bit of 'small sample size-itis' when it comes to the two starting pitchers in Thursday's series-finale between the Red Sox and Rays. Corey Kluber probably isn't as bad as his early returns indicate while Jeffrey Springs probably isn't quite as good (although I still have him pegged as an elite starter this season). With that said, I believe this total will prove too high after we saw the last two contests in this series sail 'over' the number. Kluber had an awful season debut on Opening Day against the Orioles but did rebound to work five effective innings against the upstart Pirates last time out. Here, he'll pitch on seven days' rest and I do think that helps his cause as he faces a familiar foe in the Rays (who he pitched for last season). Springs has been lights out through his first two starts, recording a 1.40 FIP and 0.54 WHIP in 13 shutout innings. Of course, he's faced the Tigers and A's - two of the American League's weakest offensive clubs. With that being said, I do think he can keep his hot start going against a Red Sox lineup that has proven to be top-heavy to say the least. Both bullpens got touched up in last night's wild 9-7 Rays victory but had previously been solid in the early going this season. Boston entered last night's play with a collective 3.09 bullpen ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Rays relief corps went into Wednesday's action sporting an impressive 1.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Take the under (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday.

The Cubs have gotten the better of the Mariners in the first two games of this series but I think Seattle has the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide and end its three-game losing skid on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for the Mariners. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season in a similar situation last year as Gilbert took the ball in a matinee affair against the White Sox in Chicago and helped Seattle avoid the sweep with a terrific performance. I expect a similar outcome here. Gilbert had a fine Spring and he's picked up right where he left off in the regular season, recording a 3.01 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 10 innings of work. Behind Gilbert is a Mariners bullpen that got roughed up last night but has been solid in the early going this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Thanks to getting three innings from seldom-used Jose Rodriguez in mop-up duty the M's 'pen isn't in all that awful shape rest-wise entering Wednesday's matinee affair. Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Cubs. He's turned back the clock in a sense, following up an outstanding Spring with two fine outings to open the regular season (2.82 FIP and 0.92 WHIP). I can't help but feel regression is coming, however, noting that Stroman recorded a pedestrian 3.76 FIP and 1.15 WHIP last season. The Cubs have used key bullpen arm Mark Leiter Jr. in each of the last two nights so you have to figure he'll be unavailable on Wednesday. Chicago's bullpen entered last night's game having logged a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with one save converted and two blown on the campaign. Take Seattle (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cardinals have run into some tough pitching after a hot start to the season (offensively at least), recording single-digit hits in four of their last five games. In fact, they enter this game on a 1-6 slide but I look for them to turn things around on Tuesday. Cards starter Miles Mikolas is off to a rough start himself, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings so far this season. With that being said, things probably aren't as bad as his inflated 9.64 ERA would seem to indicate as he has actually posted a 2.86 FIP. Keep in mind, he had an outstanding Spring, not allowing a single earned run in three starts, covering a span of 12 innings. While Coors Field isn't exactly an ideal park to bounce back in, I'm confident Mikolas can pitch well enough to give his team a chance on Tuesday. St. Louis will get a chance to tee off on a left-hander for the first time since it delivered a 6-0 win over Eric Lauer and the Brewers on Saturday. The Cards check in 49-25, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs when facing left-handed starting pitching over the last 2+ seasons. St. Louis is also an incredible 46-19 in its last 65 games as a road favorite, outscoring the opposition by 1.9 runs on average along the way. Here, the Cards will face Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. He's off to an admittedly strong start - the polar opposite of Mikolas after Freeland endured a difficult Spring that saw him post an ERA approaching six and a 1.93 WHIP in 9 1/3 innings. I don't think we should get too excited about the fact that Freeland hasn't allowed an earned run through two starts as he has posted a less-than-impressive 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and his 3.16 FIP tells a different story compared to his flawless ERA. This will be the Cards third time seeing Freeland since the start of last season, connecting for nine earned runs on 17 hits over 10 1/3 innings over those two previous contests. The St. Louis bullpen is worth betting on in my opinion even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far (3.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings). The Rockies 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention the fact that it has already been overworked, logging north of 40 innings collectively. Take St. Louis (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

The Dodgers had a rough weekend in Arizona, dropping three straight games, allowing double-digit runs in the most recent two setbacks. They have the right guy on the mound to get them back on track on Monday in Julio Urias. He was good but not great in the Spring but has ramped up quickly in the regular season, recording a 1.65 FIP and 0.75 WHIP through two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Urias faced the Giants five times last season, allowing only three earned runs in 30 innings. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's been solid through two outings as well but his numbers certainly don't stand up to Urias', with a 3.40 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. The Dodgers should welcome the opportunity to face Webb after tagging him for 13 earned runs across four starts last season. While we've seen a couple of offensive breakouts from the Giants this season, I do think it's going to be a struggle for them to manufacture offense on most nights. We certainly saw that against the Royals over the weekend as they were barely able to salvage Sunday's series-finale with an eighth-inning rally. Here, they'll be in tough against a Dodgers bullpen that is in line for a bounce-back series, having logged a 4.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in a reasonable 32 2/3 innings. The Giants 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 30 frames so far this season. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Monday.

This game pits a matchup of two offenses looking to explode after getting held down by superior pitching over the weekend. The A's were completely shut down by Rays starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen and that certainly wasn't unexpected. Keep in mind, Oakland had plated at least four runs in four straight games prior to those shutout losses. The Orioles couldn't get anything going against Yankees impressive rookie Jhony Brito and Nestor Cortes Jr. They scored just four runs across those two contests after plating seven in a one-run victory on Friday. JP Sears will take the ball for the A's on Monday. He got off to a promising start with the Yankees last season but it seemed that the book was out on him as the season went on as he recorded a 4.70 FIP and 1.48 WHIP in 48 innings pitched with the A's. His counterpart on Monday will be Kyle Gibson. His numbers have gotten progressively worse over the last two seasons and he's not exactly off to a banner start this year either. Gibson has posted a 4.73 FIP through his first two starts, allowing six earned runs in 12 innings of work. Note that the 'over' is 74-49 all-time (average of 10.0 total runs per game) with Gibson pitching at home and now he moves to a hitter-friendly park in Baltimore. The two bullpens in this matchup have been a mixed bag this season. The A's 'pen checks in sporting a 4.46 ERA and 1.40 WHIP after getting roughed up by the Rays over the weekend. The O's relief corps' has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but has already blown a pair of saves. Take the over (8*).

Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a much higher-scoring game than expected in this matchup yesterday as the Cubs tacked on seven runs over their final three turns at bat in a 10-3 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair as the Rangers send Jon Gray to the hill against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Gray had a terrific first season with the Rangers last year, posting a 3.80 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. To say he excelled in the Spring this year would be an understatement as he logged a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. While he wasn't overly sharp in his first regular season outing, he did minimize the damage, allowing just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. It's a similar story for Cubs offseason acquisition Taillon. He had a strong Spring, posting a 0.76 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. Last season he recorded a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP with the Yankees. In his Cubs regular season debut last week, Taillon got worked over a bit over four innings, yielding three earned runs on seven hits. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here as he makes his second start of the campaign at Wrigley Field. While things fell apart for the Rangers bullpen yesterday, it had been one of the strongest relief corps' in baseball in the early stages of the season and I'm not sure too much will be asked of it here given Gray's ability to work deep into the game. The Cubs 'pen has logged a less than impressive collective ERA but entered yesterday's game sporting a 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series in lopsided fashion but I look for the Tigers to answer back and avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He was good, but certainly not great, during the Spring as he logged a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The wheels came off rather quickly in his regular season debut as he was tagged for seven earned runs in just four innings with 10 of 22 batters he faced reaching base. Crawford has yet to really show he can excel at the big league level after posting a 4.34 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in his rookie campaign last year. Matt Boyd had a terrific Spring and while he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his first regular season outing against the Astros, he did limit the damage giving up only two earned runs. Boyd showed promise in his last season with the Tigers in 2021 before an injury-shortened 2022 campaign with the Mariners saw him work just north of 13 innings. Boston's bullpen holds the edge based on early season numbers but has already been overworked, logging 36 2/3 innings through eight games. Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

While I do expect Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios to pitch better than he did in his regular season debut against the Royals, I'm not convinced we'll see him out-duel a still-underrated Tyler Anderson on Saturday night in Anaheim. Berrios generally does bounce back from bad performances but this is still a tricky spot after the Angels tagged him for six earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings in this ballpark last May. Berrios didn't have a great Spring, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings. In stark contrast, Anderson posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 13 1/3 Spring innings and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season start, allowing only six of 24 batters to reach base over six shutout innings against Oakland. While I'll give the Blue Jays bullpen the slight edge, the gap isn't perhaps as wide as you might expect with the Angels relief corps having posted a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season. The Halos 'pen has also been asked to work just 23 innings through seven games which is certainly a positive. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

I think we can buy low with rookie starter Jhony Brito and the Yankees on Saturday as they look to get back at the Orioles after dropping yesterday's series-opener by a 7-6 score. Brito was impressive during the Spring as he posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, allowing only 12-of-52 batters to reach base in 13 innings of work. He picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, yielding just two hits and no walks over five shutout innings against the Giants. Cole Irvin joined the Orioles by way of the A's in the offseason. He has proven very hittable over the course of his young career, allowing 9.5 hits per nine innings. That continued in the Spring as he was tagged for 10.5 hits per nine frames in 14 1/3 innings logged. His regular season debut didn't go so well either as he lasted only four innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits against the Red Sox. While the Yankees bullpen has posted the considerably better ERA, I do think the two relief corps' are more or less a wash so far this season. With that being said, I'm confident the Yankees can persevere in this bounce-back spot as they avoid losing consecutive games for the first time this season. Take New York (8*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

There's going to be a wide range of outcomes to deal with every time A's starter Shintaro Fujinami takes the ball in the early going this season. His first big league outing didn't go so well as he couldn't make it through three innings against the Angels, allowing eight earned runs on five hits and three walks. I do think he can bounce back here, however, noting that he has tremendous stuff, but needs to find some consistency. The Rays offense exploded in a blowout victory last night, paced by a Isaac Paredes grand slam. Here, they'll turn to Jeffrey Springs to start Game 2 of this series. Springs is one of the most underrated starters in baseball in my opinion. He had an incredible 2022 campaign, posting a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings. His first start this season was a gem as he allowed just one walk over six otherwise perfect innings, striking out 12 along the way. That comes on the heels of a phenomenal Spring that saw him toss 14 shutout frames. Both bullpens have been sharp in the early going this season with the A's relief corps posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and the Rays 'pen logging a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

Yesterday's series-opener produced a grand total of one run as the Rockies delivered a rare shutout victory behind a terrific pitching performance from Kyle Freeland. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday as Colorado sends Jose Urena to the mound against MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. Gore faced the Rockies twice last season as a member of the Padres, including a start here at Coors Field where he allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just four innings in a 10-4 loss. In his 2023 debut, Gore limited the damage in an eventual 4-1 home win over the Braves, but did struggle with his command, issuing four walks over 5 1/3 innings. That's been a common theme as he allowed 4.8 walks per nine innings and posted a 1.47 WHIP in his rookie campaign a year ago. It's a wonder that Jose Urena is still in a big league rotation. He logged a 4.65 FIP and 1.57 WHIP splitting time with the Brewers and Rockies last year. He struggled in the Spring with a 6.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and then labored through 2 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs in his first regular season outing against the Padres. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence in this matchup. The Nationals relief corps has been the better of the two but hasn't enjoyed an off day since last Friday. The Rockies 'pen checks in sporting a collective 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but was helped out by Freeland working deep into yesterday's contest. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

I do like the Brewers in this matchup but I think they're being priced appropriately so will go with a play on the total instead. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty struggled mightily with his command in his first start of the campaign, walking seven Blue Jays batters while hitting another over five innings. With that being said, he didn't allow a hit in that contest and faced less than ideal conditions on a cold, windy day in St. Louis. Here, he'll look to bounce back in perfect conditions indoors in Milwaukee, noting that the Brewers are probably in line for some regression at the plate after racking up 35 runs over their last four games. Even after a rough Spring, not to mention a laborous 2022 campaign, I'm not ready to give up on Flaherty just yet as he still owns a career 3.94 FIP and 1.11 WHIP and it's not as if his velocity has fallen off a cliff despite shoulder issues. Countering Flaherty will be Brewers co-ace Brandon Woodruff. He was terrific in his first start of the season, allowing just one earned run on three hits over six innings against the Cubs. Woodruff had a solid Spring as well, logging a sparkling 0.83 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings. While he didn't factor into the All-Star Game or National League Cy Young voting last season, there was certainly nothing wrong with a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Both bullpens have been among the best in baseball in the early going this season with the Cards relief corps logging a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and the Brewers putting together a 1.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Both will also have all hands on deck after an off day on Thursday. Take the under (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Friday.

If the Twins are going to be true contenders in the American League this season, this is a good early 'measuring stick' series for them at home against the Astros. I like them to take the opener on Friday night with Sonny Gray taking the ball against Jose Urquidy. Gray hasn't received many accolades but he's pitched exceptionally well over the last few seasons in particular. Last year, Gray logged a 3.40 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He had a terrific Spring, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings and while his command wasn't necessarily there in his regular season debut he did battle through it to work five innings, allowing just three hits and no earned runs against the Royals. He'll obviously face a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Urquidy has been a bit of an enigma for the Astros. Last year he posted a less than impressive 4.60 FIP but a solid 1.17 WHIP and that's been about par for the course for him over his 4+ year big league career. Urquidy didn't have a great Spring and followed that up with a shaky first regular season outing, allowing seven hits and three earned runs including two home runs in only four innings against the White Sox. While the Astros bullpen has been solid in the early going this season, it has already been overworked, logging 28 1/3 innings. Contrast that with the Twins relief corps, which has been asked to work just 18 2/3 innings, recording a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The D'Backs have hung tough through their first six games this season, managing to split a pair of road series' against tonight's opponent, the Dodgers, and the Padres. While I do think the Snakes can surprise in the N.L. West this season, I still feel there's a considerable gap between these two clubs and will back the Dodgers and starter Dustin May in a 'revenge' spot on Thursday. May was masterful in his season debut against these same D'Backs last weekend but was ultimately saddled with a no-decision in a 2-1 loss. After a terrific Spring, May picked up right where he left off, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against Arizona. Note that May has only gotten limited work in during the early stages of his big league career but when he's healthy, he's capable of big things, as he showed during his rookie campaign back in 2020 when he finished top-five in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Merrill Kelly will counter for the D'Backs. We saw an alarming trend emerge during his Spring starts as he issued four walks in only seven innings of work and that lack of command seems to have carried over to the regular season as well as he handed out four free passes in just 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers last weekend. Los Angeles has now seen Kelly a whopping six times since the start of last season. Last Friday marked the first time in any of those six games that Arizona actually managed to pick up a victory. Kelly has allowed 29 earned runs on 53 hits in his last 38 2/3 innings pitched against Los Angeles. Finally, I'll point out that the Snakes bullpen has recorded a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season while the Dodgers relief corps has posted a sparkling 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday.

This game features one of the best pitching matchups on Thursday's board as the Padres send left-hander Blake Snell to the hill against super-soph Spencer Strider of the Braves. Snell has settled in nicely since joining the Padres prior to the 2021 campaign. He recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 128 2/3 innings that season before improving on those numbers with a 2.80 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 128 frames of work last year. Snell has the benefit of having faced the Braves only once before with that start coming back in 2018 (he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in a 1-0 loss). Spencer Strider finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting last year and probably should have received votes for the Cy Young as well as he posted a sparkling 1.83 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Like Snell against the Braves, Strider will have the element of surprise working in his favor here having never faced the Padres previously. The Braves bullpen has been outstanding in the early going this season and while the Padres relief corps' has struggled, it does have the advantage of having had yesterday off so it will be all hands on deck for Thursday's series-opener. All three meetings here in Atlanta last season went 'over' the total but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

Alex Wood finally gets his first start of the season for the Giants on Thursday and I look for him to outduel White Sox veteran Lance Lynn. Wood had a fine Spring, posting a 3.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Last season, he recorded in inflated 5.10 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a solid 3.76 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Lynn labored to the tune of a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14 2/3 Spring innings and didn't pitch particularly well in his regular season debut either, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings but posting a 6.02 FIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a collective 7.97 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings of work this season. The Giants 'pen hasn't been lights out either, posting a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP but at least has the benefit of being relatively fresh, working just 16 1/3 innings to date. Take San Francisco (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We've seen consecutive 'over' results to open this series and it's had everything to do with the Brewers hot bats as they've plated 19 runs while shutting out the Mets in consecutive games. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as New York sends left-hander David Peterson to the mound against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. Peterson had a fine Spring, not allowing a single earned run in in 12 innings of work. Walks were an issue as he handed out eight free passes but he put those concerns to rest in his regular season debut as he walked just one in five innings (while allowing one earned run on a solo home run) in an encouraging performance against the Marlins. Note that the Brewers have seen just one left-handed starter this season and struggled at the dish in that game against Justin Steele of the Cubs, ultimately prevailing by a 3-1 score. Burnes struggled in his first start of the campaign in Chicago but that's not all that unique as the exact same thing happened in his season debut at Wrigley Field last year. He proceeded to strike out eight batters over seven shutout innings in his next outing last April. We're talking about an elite starter that has finished at least top-seven in N.L. Cy Young voting in each of the last three seasons. I'm confident we'll see Burnes pitch well against the slumping Mets bats on Wednesday. Take the under (10*).

N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams have alternated high and low-scoring games out of the gates this season and last night we saw a slugfest as the Dodgers won by a 13-4 score. I expect a reversal of course once again here as Colorado sends veteran German Marquez to the hill against Julio Urias of the Dodgers. Marquez was sharp in his season debut, allowing just two earned runs on five hits (and no walks) in six innings against the Padres. He saw plenty of these Dodgers last season and actually fared alright, allowing exactly one earned run while lasting at least six innings in two of those five outings. I like the form Marquez has shown going back to the Spring, when he recorded a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings of work. Urias was once one of the more underrated starters in baseball but perhaps not so anymore as he's finished seventh and third in National League Cy Young voting over the last two seasons and even received MVP votes in 2022. Like Marquez, Urias tossed six solid innings in his first outing this season and also had a fine Spring that included work in the World Baseball Classic. Urias worked at least six innings in four of five starts against the Rockies last season, allowing two earned runs or less in three of those outings. While the Dodgers are absolutely loaded again offensively, I think it's too early in the campaign to expect them to hang a crooked number on the board every night. Meanwhile, Colorado has plated just 36 runs in its last 14 games played here at Chavez Ravine. Take the under (10*).

N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

We saw a low-scoring game here at Great American Ballpark on Sunday but that should be the exception rather than the rule this season. I like the way the Reds are built offensively - a perfect fit for the bandbox they play their home games in. They'll get the opportunity to tee off on Cubs journeyman starter Drew Smyly on Monday, noting that the veteran left-hander posted an ERA north of six and a 1.84 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings in the Spring, tagged for six home runs along the way. Speaking of Spring struggles, Reds starter Connor Overton was lit up to the tune of a 15.43 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. He allowed six home runs. Again, that doesn't bode well as he prepares to make his first start of the season at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While it's important not to put too much stock in Spring Training results, sometimes the numbers are alarming enough to cause concern and I feel that's the case here. Both lineups have shown some pop in the early going this season with the Cubs scoring 10 runs through three games against a tough Brewers pitching staff and the Reds plating 13 runs in their three-game set against the Pirates. Of note, the Cubs bullpen has already given up nine earned runs on 10 hits in just 11 innings logged. The Reds 'pen has been better, but also owns a less-than-impressive 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Rays bats exploded for 12 runs in yesterday's rout of the Tigers but I think performances are likely to be few and far between for this lineup this season. While Sunday's series-finale features a pitching matchup lacking in star power, it's one with no shortage of quality nonetheless. Joey Wentz will take the ball for Detroit. He struggled to keep the ball in the yard in the Spring, leading to some inflated numbers but that was in just 14 2/3 innings of work. In his first big league season a year ago, Wentz logged 32 2/3 innings and posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. Home runs weren't an issue as he allowed just 0.6 long balls per nine innings. Jeffrey Springs will counter for Tampa Bay. He improved on a stellar 2021 showing by recording a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in a career-high 135 1/3 innings of work last season. That included a start against these same Tigers in August as he didn't allow a single earned run over six frames of four-hit ball. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with Springs on the mound and the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 6.6 runs scored. Take the under (10*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

The Mets took the opener of this series last night as the two starters duelled for five innings before things broke open in the second half of the game. Here, I look for the Marlins to answer back with Jesus Luzardo taking the ball against David Peterson of the Mets in a lefty-lefty matchup. Luzardo had a fine Spring, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 2/3 innings of work. I would put Luzardo in the undervalued category after he recorded a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in just north of 100 innings pitched last season. His counterpart, David Peterson, didn't give up a single earned run in the Spring but also pitched just 12 innings, issuing eight walks along the way. Peterson, like Luzardo, quietly had an impressive 2022 campaign, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. With that said, he allowed more hits, more walks and recorded fewer strikeouts per nine innings compared to Luzardo. Also note that the Marlins got to see him three times, seemingly getting better each time they faced him, culminating with a 6-3 win here at home in which they chased him from the game before the end of the fourth inning. The Mets saw Luzardo twice last season and he was more effective in his second outing against them, holding them to just two earned runs on four hits over six frames. The bullpens are pretty much a wash in my opinion and both had to work around three innings in yesterday's contest. Take Miami (10*).