My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Mets haven't been playing their best baseball by any means and come off another blowout loss at the hands of the Pirates on Saturday. In fact, they've dropped each of the first two games in this series in blowout fashion. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon, however, as they hand the ball to Frankie Montas for his second start of the season. Montas should be able to settle in as he makes his second trip to the hill after returning from the I.L. He was good but not great over five innings, not allowing an earned run last time out. I also think New York's bats can come alive against Pirates rookie starter Mike Burrows. The right-hander was effective in a relief outing most recently but in his last start he was tagged for four earned runs and two home runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Rangers. With their bullpen in good shape consider recent lopsided results, the Mets should have enough to get by the Buccos in an important turn-around spot. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Arizona over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Diamondbacks fell just short in last night's series-opener against the Marlins in what was a wild 9-8 affair. We'll call for Arizona to bounce back on Saturday as it sends Brandon Pfaadt to the hill against Sandy Alcantara. Pfaadt is finally back home after a couple of rocky road outings. The last time we saw him pitch here in Arizona he guided the D'Backs to a 10-3 victory over the Mariners. His counterpart on Saturday will be Sandy Alcantara. The right-hander has struggled to the tune of a 4.70 FIP and 1.56 WHIP this season. While he has admittedly pitched better lately, I do think the red hot Arizona bats can get to him here. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Arizona over Miami at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is quietly enjoying a career year in some respects. He's 7-3 with a 3.31 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. In fact, he's been one of baseball's winning-est starting pitchers in recent years, sporting a 37-20 record going back to the start of 2022. The Marlins are coming off a tremendous series in San Francisco but I think they're in a tough spot with Eury Perez making his fourth start of the campaign on Friday. Perez has logged a solid 2.99 FIP but a lofty 1.63 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings of work this season. The fact that he's kept the ball in the park has been a positive but I don't think that's sustainable (he allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings in 91 1/3 innings last season). The D'Backs bullpen has quietly turned things around lately, posting a collective 1.37 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

I like the way the opener of this series sets up for the Cubs as they look to cool off the red hot Astros. Chicago will send Cade Horton to the hill on Friday. The former first round draft pick has logged a 3-1 record to go along with a 3.78 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in eight appearances so far this season - certainly admirable numbers for a rookie pitcher. He'll face a fellow rookie in Astros starter Brandon Walter. Walter was a 26th round draft pick by the Red Sox back in 2019. He did have a cup of coffee at the big league level with Boston back in 2023 but prior to this season, that's been it. Here in 2025, Walter has posted a 3.67 FIP and 1.10 WHIP but is winless in four starts. I think this is a tough spot for the left-hander with Chicago ranked second in wOBA and first in ISO over the last week. Look for the Cubs to take the series-opener. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on New York over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. 

I think last night's blowout win by the Mets can serve as a building block as we head into the end of June. Griffin Canning starts for New York on Thursday. He drew a tough assignment against the Phillies in Philadelphia last Saturday night and after a shaky first couple of innings he held his club in the game long enough to secure an 'upset' win. Here, he'll face a middling Braves lineup and I look for him to find some success. Grant Holmes will take the ball for Atlanta. While he got off to a solid start this season his FIP has now risen to 4.42 and his WHIP to 1.22 - both numbers are higher than what he posted a year ago. The Mets are quietly coming around at the plate, ranking seventh in the majors in isolated power over the last week. Look for New York to secure a second straight win. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Phillies will be looking to avoid the series sweep in Houston on Thursday afternoon and I think we're getting a terrific price to back them. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for Philadelphia. He brings excellent form into this start and has posted a 3.14 FIP and 1.19 WHIP in 15 outings this season. While the Astros have been outstanding against left-handed pitching, Sanchez has certainly vaulted himself into the 'elite' southpaw category and I think he can navigate the tricky waters well on Thursday. Hunter Brown will counter for Houston. He's also having a fantastic season but has wavered a bit lately, working 5 1/3 innings or less in two of his last three starts. Last time out he threw just 48-of-87 pitches for strikes in a narrow 3-2 extra innings win over the Angels. The price is right to take a flyer on the underdog Phillies in this spot. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I look for them to give the Giants all they can handle again on Wednesday. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to back San Francisco with its ace Logan Webb on the mound. As good as Webb has been this season, the Giants have won just one of his last six starts by more than a single run. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera held a tough Phillies lineup to just one earned run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings last time out and the Marlins are 6-4 in his last 10 outings with all four of those losses coming by a single run. In what projects as a low-scoring affair and with the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll grab the insurance run with the visiting Marlins. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Nationals last night and I'll come right back with them on Tuesday as well. Washington was in a major slump at this time last week but has since turned it around to some extent, going 3-2 over its last five games. Trevor Williams will take the ball on Tuesday. He's been better than his 5.54 ERA indicates, logging a 3.72 FIP this season. Rookie Ryan Bergert will counter for San Diego. He's been effective but certainly isn't a candidate to work deep into a ball game and the concern here is that the Padres bullpen has really struggled lately, logging a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over the last week. They were forced to use four different relievers in last night's contest. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Colorado over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm not convinced the Dodgers are a 'sure thing' on Tuesday as they travel to Denver to open a series with the Rockies. Los Angeles has yet to name a starter for this contest as it continues to deal with a depleted pitching staff. One thing we know is that the Dodgers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has certainly struggled lately, posting a 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last week. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. His overall numbers aren't good but he does bring solid form into this start having allowed just one earned run over his last two outings, covering a span of 10 2/3 innings. The price is right to take a shot with the Rockies, noting that they're a not-so-awful 9-10 over their last 19 games and will look to win their second in a row here. Take Colorado (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Pirates took the opener of this series last night and have now won consecutive games. I like their chances of stringing together a third straight victory on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney takes the ball for Pittsburgh. He's coming off a rough outing in Detroit last week but had been pitching well prior to that. I still think there's plenty of upside with the veteran left-hander as he has posted a 1.19 WHIP in 82 1/3 innings of work this season and faces a Brewers team that has been streaky at the plate this season. Freddy Peralta counters for Milwaukee. The Brewers have won his last two starts but both of those victories came by a single run and prior to that they had lost two in a row with Peralta on the mound. With the Milwaukee bullpen struggling right now (5.16 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last week), we'll take a flyer with the upset-minded Pirates on Tuesday. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals suffered a 13-7 loss in Los Angeles yesterday but are an even 2-2 over their last four games to regain their footing following a long losing streak. They'll look to rebound on Monday as they send Mitchell Parker to the mound against a yet-to-be decided on starter for the Padres. I think we'll see Parker find some success in this matchup. He's coming off a fine outing against the Rockies last week, allowing just one earned run over six innings. In fact, Parker has worked six innings while allowing one earned run or less in two of his last three trips to the hill. Here, he'll face a Padres club that ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average and 24th in isolated power against left-handed pitching this season. Yes, the Nats' bullpen has struggled lately and as a whole this season. However, the Padres 'pen has also had a tough time over the last week, posting a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. I don't believe the lofty price for the visitors is warranted given the matchup. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Cubs on Monday as they send Ben Brown to the hill against Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals. While Chicago checks in ranked third in the majors in weighted on base average and first in isolated power over the last seven days, St. Louis is 14th and 19th, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. The pitching matchup could be considered a wash but we can make the case for Cubs right-hander Brown having more upside than Cards' lefty Liberatore. Of note, the Cubs rank sixth in the majors in wOBA and third in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Take Chicago (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas over Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Monday.

We faded the Rangers in their loss in Pittsburgh yesterday but we'll quickly switch gears and back them as they open a series in Baltimore on Monday. The Orioles continue to limp along off another losing series, this one at the hands of the division rival Yankees. Baltimore led Sunday's game most of the way but couldn't make it stand up in an eventual 4-2 loss. The O's return home to the Baltimore heat (game time temperature is expected to eclipse 100 degrees) and I look for them to struggle. Patrick Corbin takes the ball for the Rangers. It's notable that they're sending a left-hander to the mound as Baltimore ranks last in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power against southpaw pitching this season. Behind Corbin is a Rangers bullpen that continues to pitch well having logged a 3.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last week. While the Texas offense has disappointed this season, I think this is a series where it can find some success against a struggling O's pitching staff. Note that Baltimore's bullpen checks in sporting a 4.13 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last week, logging 28 1/3 innings without a single day off over that stretch. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Mets last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday night. New York had to feel good about that victory as it displayed plenty of power in an eventual 11-4 victory. I like the way this matchup sets up as well with David Peterson taking the ball for New York against Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies in a matchup of left-handed starter. Interestingly, Peterson has yet to be on the mound for consecutive Mets defeats this season. They've gone 9-5 in his 14 starts including a win over these same Phillies back in April. Luzardo has lasted five innings or less in three of his last four starts and was tagged for four earned runs in an 8-3 loss to the Marlins last time out. The Phillies bullpen is in a lull right now as well, having posted a 6.65 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last week. Take New York (8*).

N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The presence of Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Dodgers helps keep this total lower than it probably should be. The Nationals picked up a victory to even this series at a game apiece last night. Washington ranks fourth in the majors in isolated power over the last week while the Dodgers sit just three spots behind in seventh. Ohtani doesn't figure to work deep into this ball game as the Dodgers continue to ease him back into the starting rotation. Of note, the Los Angeles bullpen has been anything but lights out lately, logging a 4.96 ERA over the last week. Michael Soroka starts for the Nationals on Sunday. He's been as wild as it gets, issuing five walks and hitting four batters while also getting tagged for four home runs over his last two starts, spanning just 11 innings. On the campaign, Soroka owns a lofty 4.92 FIP and gives up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. Behind Soroka is a Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 5.32 ERA over the last week. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over Texas at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

This has been a rather uneventful series so far with the Rangers winning the first two games in relatively low-scoring fashion. I think the Pirates can answer back in Sunday's series finale as they send Bailey Falter to the hill against Jack Leiter. Falter has been good but certainly not great this season with a 4.29 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He does check in sporting a winning record at 5-3 and the bullpen behind him has been effective at home this season with a 4.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP to go along with 10 saves converted and only four blown. Jack Leiter got off to a strong start for the Rangers this season but has since fallen off, allowing 10 earned runs on 13 hits including four home runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 9 2/3 innings. While the Rangers bullpen has been solid lately, it has had a bit of a tough time closing out games on the road this season with just six saves converted and five blown. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Mets have lost seven games in a row following last night's 10-2 thrashing at the hands of the Phillies. Their pitching staff has really struggled lately but I think Griffin Canning can give them a quality start on Saturday while I do expect the Mets bats to come to life against Phillies rookie Mick Abel. Abel has made just one start at Citizens Bank Park this season and he was lit up for three home runs in an 8-4 loss to the Cubs. The Mets are a sleeping giant offensively right now and I think this as as good of a spot as any for them to wake up and end their lengthy skid. We know Canning is capable of turning in a quality outing as we saw him hold the Dodgers to just three hits over six shutout innings in his most recent road start on June 4th. The Mets have won two of his last three trips to the hill. Take New York (8*).

N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

The weather forecast is playing a big role in this total sitting at 9, with temperatures expected to hover in the 90's along with a breeze blowing out to left-center. While weather is always something to consider, I don't expect it to be the deciding factor in terms of the total on Saturday afternoon. The Reds will turn to Brent Suter in an 'opener' role in this one. While Cincinnati's bullpen hasn't been great this season, it hasn't been a train-wreck either, sporting a 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown on the road. The Reds will need a strong pitching performance here in an effort to keep this game competitive because I don't anticipate them scoring a ton of runs off Sonny Gray and the Cardinals pitching staff. Gray comes off arguably his worst start of the campaign as he allowed six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Milwaukee last time out (that game actually totalled just six runs). Gray's last four outings have resulted in totals of 7, 2, 5 and 6 runs. Prior to his last start, Gray had tossed 13 1/3 shutout innings over his last two outings. Note that the Reds have produced only 33 runs in 11 division road games this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have produced just 143 runs and 31 home runs in 36 afternoon affairs here in 2025. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Orioles have put together back-to-back wins including an 'upset' victory against Max Fried and the Yankees last night. I expect to see their mini-streak come to an end on Saturday afternoon, however. Baltimore will send Zach Eflin to the mound. He was tagged for seven earned runs on 12 hits over five innings against the Rays last time out. He's now been lit up for multiple home runs in half of his last six starts. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is in terrific form right now having allowed just six hits over 13 2/3 shutout innings over his last two starts. In line with his numbers from an injury-shortened 2024 campaign, Schmidt has posted a 3.55 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 11 outings this season. The bullpen matchup should go New York's way as well as it has logged a 1.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last week while Baltimore has posted a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the same stretch. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Friday as they look to bounce back following last night's extra innings defeat against the Athletics in Sacramento. That was an up-and-down series for Houston but I look for it to settle in on Friday night in Anaheim. The pitching matchup favors the Astros heavily with Hunter Brown taking the ball against Yusei Kikuchi. Brown has been terrific this season, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has been all over the place with a 3.05 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. Houston has absolutely torched southpaw pitching this season and I think it does more than enough to cover the run-line in this spot. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Rockies in the opener of this N.L. West series on Friday. The case can be made that the Rockies are playing better than the Diamondbacks right now. Off a winning series in Washington and off a hard-fought extra innings loss in yesterday's series finale, we'll call for Colorado to rebound at home on Friday. Zac Gallen has not been good for the D'Backs this season, posting a 4.90 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while going 4-8 in 15 starts. Behind him is an Arizona bullpen that has been even worse than Colorado's, including of late as it has logged a 7.84 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Austin Gomber gets the start for the Rockies. He had a productive season debut last week, going five shutout innings of two-hit ball. Look for a competitive affair on Friday at Coors Field. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Twins offense exploded in yesterday's rout of the Reds to avoid the sweep in Cincinnati. We'll look for their bats to cool off on Friday as they return home to pitcher-friendly Target Field to take on the Brewers. Rookie Jacob Misiorowski will take the ball for Milwaukee. He had a nice big league debut as he allowed four walks but no hits over five shutout innings. I think he can build off that performance here in his first road start. The Twins will hand the ball to Joe Ryan. He had a rough outing against the Blue Jays two starts back but rebounded nicely against the Astros last time out, allowing just two hits and needing only 93 pitches to get through seven innings in a low-scoring 3-2 defeat at home. This is a favorable matchup for Ryan at home as he challenges a middling Brewers offense. Look for the starters to perform well and the bullpens to take care of the rest in this interleague affair. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Rays check in off a 4-1 'upset' loss at home against the Orioles last night. I look for them to bounce back on Friday as they open a series against the Tigers. Shane Baz will take the ball for Tampa Bay. The Rays have won each of his last five starts and I think they're well-positioned to stretch that streak to six games here. I do think Baz is a better pitcher than his 4.77 FIP indicates. He was terrific last time out as he scattered just three hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 9-0 rout of the Mets. We know he's a long-term winner at the major league level, with a career 13-8 record across four big league campaigns. Jack Flaherty counters for Detroit. He had his string of strong outings stopped in an 11-1 rout, at home no less, against the Reds last time out. He was tagged for seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in that contest. The Tigers are just 2-4 in his six road starts this season including a one-run victory in Toronto and another win over the lowly White Sox. With the bullpen advantage going to the Rays (1.69 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last week), we'll confidently back the home side here. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Mets are reeling right now and there's really no end in sight with this difficult series in Philadelphia followed by another series against the Braves, who just handled them easily. New York is in another tough spot on Friday as it goes up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Since a rough outing at home against the Braves on May 29th, he's settled down, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits while striking out 16 and walking just one in 12 innings over his last two starts. On the season, Wheeler owns Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.76 FIP and 0.89 WHIP. New York will turn to Blade Tidwell for his second start. His first one didn't go well at all as he was lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. New York has precious few options on the mound right now noting that its bullpen has also struggled to the tune of a 5.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last week. Phillies roll. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

This has been a back-and-forth series so far with the Rays most recently rallying from an early 8-0 deficit to take last night's contest in what was a wild affair at Steinbrenner Field. We'll call for the Orioles to bounce back on Thursday and will grab the insurance run at a reasonable price. Charlie Morton takes the ball for Baltimore. He's settled down since returning to the starting rotation, allowing just six earned runs in 20 innings of work. Of those six earned runs, four of them came in a start against the Athletics at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Of note, Morton has allowed just one home run in his last four outings. Drew Rasmussen got off to a red hot start for the Rays this season but has shown some possible signs of regression over his last two starts. Last time out he lasted only five innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs, against the Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Now he starts on short rest (four days) against an Orioles lineup that has shown some life lately. While the O's bullpen is usually a concern, they have held up reasonably well lately, sporting a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

This has been an incredibly low-scoring series so far as the Nationals continue their June swoon. I look for that to change on Thursday afternoon. The forecast calls for temperatures approaching 90 degrees along with a fairly strong breeze blowing out to right-center at Nationals Park. The conditions are ripe for a slugfest between these two National League clubs. Note that Rockies rookie Chase Dollander already faced the Nats once this season. He was chased after four innings in that game as he gave up nine runs, six of them earned in a wild 12-11 loss. The table is set for late runs in this contest as well with the Rockies bullpen having posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last week and the Nats' countering with a 7.03 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres at a reasonable price on Wednesday night in Los Angeles. Stephen Kolek will start for San Diego. He's had a rocky season so far, logging a 4.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP across eight starts. With that being said, he has held the opposition to just under 3.9 runs per nine innings and while the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns terrific overall numbers and has been pressed into duty for just 19 1/3 innings over the last week so the arms should be relatively fresh for this one. The Dodgers will give Emmet Sheehan his first start of the season after he missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery. Sheehan delivered mixed results in his rookie season in 2023 and draws a tough first assignment against a Padres club that will be desperate to bounce back following consecutive defeats to open this series. While the Dodgers bullpen behind Sheehan has been good, it has also worked nearly 30 innings over the last week so fatigue could become an issue in the coming days. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Cleveland at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants let us down last night as their offense, or lack thereof, spoiled a fine effort from their pitching staff. I expect them to bounce back on Wednesday as they welcome Justin Verlander back to the mound against Logan Allen of the Guardians. While Verlander has been up-and-down when healthy, he still checks in allowing fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to Allen. Both bullpens have had their share of struggles lately but we're willing to bet on the Giants relief corps rebounding at home, where they've posted a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season. The Guardians 'pen owns a 3.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Look for the Giants to get back on track and snap their three-game slide in this spot. Take San Francisco (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Guardians held on for a 3-2 victory. Look for more offensive fireworks in Wednesday's contest as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup with Logan Allen going for the Guardians against Justin Verlander, just returning from injury, for the Giants. It looks like an ideal night for baseball at Oracle Park with clear skies and the wind blowing out directly to center. Of note, the Giants rank top-five in baseball in weighted on base average over the last seven days and only got stronger with the acquisition of Rafael Devers from Boston on Sunday. Devers contributed an RBI double in last night's contest. Take the over (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

After dropping the first two games of this series and mired in an incredible hitting slump, I look for the Yankees to bounce back in a big way on Wednesday. Jack Kochanowicz gets the start for the Angels. He checks in sporting a lofty 5.62 FIP And 1.59 WHIP. Note that New York is top three in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Ryan Yarbrough counters for New York. He sports a 4.39 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and has allowed 2.5 fewer hits and 1.1 fewer walks per nine innings while also striking out 2.0 more batters compared to Kochanowicz. Of note, the Angels rank next-to-last in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees bullpen having posted a 0.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week, we'll confidently lay the extra run with New York in this spot. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Cleveland at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Giants starter Robbie Ray is coming off a rare shaky outing against the Rockies last time out but we'll call for him to bounce back on Tuesday as San Francisco opens a series against Cleveland. Ray owns a 2.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP on the season, holding opponents to just under 2.8 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Slade Cecconi of the Guardians. He was the big piece coming back in the Josh Naylor trade with Arizona in the offseason but has only showed flashes of brilliance so far. Cecconi has posted a 5.00 FIP and 1.34 WHIP in five starts this season. While the Giants bullpen has struggled lately, a day off on Monday and a return home should help its cause. Note that San Francisco relievers have combined to record a 2.43 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 10 saves converted and five blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (8*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Royals are reeling right now, fresh off consecutive series sweeps at home against the Yankees and Athletics. They'll hit the road on Tuesday as they open a series against the Rangers in Texas. That doesn't bode particularly well for their struggling offense as the Rangers pitching staff has been terrific this season. Jack Leiter takes the ball for Texas on Tuesday. He owns a 4.47 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but has limited the damage, allowing less than 3.9 runs per nine innings. Behind Leiter is a Rangers bullpen that has been lights out lately, logging a collective 2.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last week. Kansas City will pin its hopes on starter Seth Lugo. The veteran right-hander has posted a pedestrian 4.78 FIP to go along with a more respectable 1.15 WHIP and like Leiter, has worked in and out of some trouble, holding opponents to just over 3.4 runs per nine innings. The Rangers bats have been relatively quiet for the most part this season so this could be a positive spot for Lugo. Kansas City's bullpen owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last week but can't shoulder all of the blame as the Royals bats have done next-to-nothing. On the season, the Royals 'pen has posted a 3.18 ERA on the road with nine saves converted and only three blown. Both teams check in off an off day on Monday so it should be 'all hands on deck' in the later stages of this one. Take the under (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Phillies on Monday as they look to build off a series sweep of the Blue Jays over the weekend. Mick Abel will take the ball for Philadelphia on Monday. He's made three starts to mixed results, logging a 4.38 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. The good news is he's held opponents to just over 2.3 runs per nine innings. Sandy Alcantara continues to slog through a tough 2025 campaign for the Marlins. He owns a 4.71 FIP and 1.49 WHIP and has allowed well north of seven runs per nine innings. Entering yesterday's action, the Phillies bullpen had posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last week while the Marlins 'pen owned a 6.48 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I don't see any considerable advantage for the Dodgers in this matchup, not enough to warrant such a reasonable price to grab an insurance run with the visiting Giants. San Francisco will be looking to bounce back from last night's beatdown and I look for them to at the very least take this one down to the final at-bat. Kyle Harrison starts for the Giants against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Their numbers have been almost identical this season although Harrison has allowed slightly fewer hits and walks per nine innings while also striking out 0.9 more batters per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash in terms of recent form and the Giants relief corps has been significantly better on the road than the Dodgers 'pen has been at home this season. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City over the Athletics at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll back the slumping Royals on Sunday as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Athletics. The pitching matchup sets up well for Kansas City as it sends impressive rookie Noah Cameron to the hill against Jeffrey Springs of the A's. Cameron owns a 4.01 FIP to go along with a sparkling 0.88 WHIP in six starts. He checks in allowing less than 2.2 runs per nine innings. Springs sports a 4.72 FIP and 1.30 WHIP and has been tagged for just over 5.7 runs per nine frames. While the bullpen matchup is relatively even based on current form, it's no contest when you consider home-road splits. The A's 'pen has logged a 6.41 ERA and 1.69 WHIP away from home this season while the Royals relief corps has posted a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home (with 13 saves converted and only two blown). Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Phillies will look to complete the sweep of the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon and I like their chances of doing so. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Toronto. He's been good but not great this season, logging a 4.36 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 14 starts. Contrast that with Phillies starter Zack Wheeler who has once again posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.97 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 13 outings. The bullpen advantage goes Philadelphia's way as well as it has recorded a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last week while the Jays 'pen has sagged to the tune of a 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia (8*).

Interleague Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Rays rallied for a 7-5 win in the opener of this series last night and we'll back them as they look to notch another victory on Saturday. Drew Rasmussen has been terrific for Tampa Bay this season, logging a 3.24 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.2 runs per nine innings. Mets starter Tylor Megill got off to a fine start to the campaign but has struggled since and owns a 3.15 FIP and 1.30 WHIP, yielding north of 4.3 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup goes the Rays way based on current form as well. Tampa Bay's 'pen has posted a collective 2.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last week while the Mets relief corps' has logged a 5.21 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves exploded late in an eventual blowout win over the Rockies to open this series last night. We'll call for Atlanta to beat up on Colorado again on Saturday afternoon. The Rockies bullpen is a mess right now having posted an 11.42 ERA and 2.08 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has logged a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while needing to work only 13 innings over that same stretch. The starting pitching matchup favors the Braves here as well. While Spencer Strider hasn't been at his best since returning from injury he still owns better numbers than Rockies starter Chase Dollander. Note that Dollander has allowed a whopping 7.5 runs per nine innings in 10 starts (to go along with a 6.30 FIP and 1.55 WHIP). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between the Athletics and Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

We saw plenty of offense in last night's game between these two teams and we'll call for more of the same on Saturday. Jacob Lopez will take the ball for the Athletics. He owns a 5.62 FIP and 1.71 WHIP this season and has allowed well north of 7.0 runs per nine innings. Michael Lorenzen has been good but certainly not great for the Royals, posting a 4.75 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 5.2 runs per nine frames. Meanwhile, both bullpens have struggled lately with the A's relief corps posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week and the Royals' recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Phillies took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night and we'll call for them to prevail again on Saturday afternoon. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for Philadelphia. He's quietly enjoying another solid campaign having posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings (that's a career-best). It's been a much different story for Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis. After a promising rookie campaign last year, the wheels have come off so far this season. He checks in sporting a 6.91 FIP and 1.56 WHIP and has given up just shy of 6.6 runs per nine frames. The Phillies also own a bullpen edge based on current form. Their relief corps has posted a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last week (working just 17 innings) while the Jays 'pen has recorded a 6.97 ERA and 1.69 WHIP while logging 20 2/3 innings over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the run-line with the Braves on Friday as they open a series against the Rockies at home. Colorado is fresh off a come-from-behind 8-7 walk-off win over San Francisco yesterday. There are still major concerns when it comes to this cellar-dwelling club, however. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies on Friday. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez owns a 4.46 FIP and 1.68 WHIP and has allowed a ridiculous 7.9 runs per nine innings in 13 starts. Bryce Elder certainly hasn't been great for the Braves, but he's been considerably better than Marquez with a 4.30 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 4.1 fewer hits and 0.5 fewer walks while striking out 1.8 more per nine innings this season. The bullpen edge goes to the Braves as well. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over the last week while the Rockies relief corps owns a 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Thursday as they wrap up their series with the White Sox in Houston. Chicago will hand the ball to Davis Martin as he makes his 13th start and 14th appearance of the season. Martin hasn't been terrible but that's about where the compliments end. He owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while allowing 4.1 runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He has recorded a 3.08 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.1 runs per nine frames. The Astros have a considerable edge in terms of the bullpen matchup as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the last week compared to the White Sox 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. On the season, Chicago has converted just three saves while blowing five on the road while Houston has converted 11 and blown only 1 at home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

The two starters in this matchup have done a masterful job of limiting the damage this season. Andrew Heaney of the Pirates owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.15 WHIP but has given up just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Jameson Taillon has posted a 4.84 FIP and 0.98 WHIP and has held opponents just under 3.7 runs per nine frames. Both bullpens are in terrific form right now with the Pirates relief corps having posted a 1.52 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week and the Cubs 'pen having logged a 1.08 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

We'll take a flyer on the 'over' in Thursday's series finale between the Yankees and Royals at Kaufman Stadium. Seth Lugo will get the nod for the Royals. He's had a tough first half of the season, logging a 4.86 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 11 starts. While the veteran right-hander has managed to limit the damage somewhat, holding opponents to just over 3.7 runs per nine innings, he runs into a very difficult matchup against the Yankees on Thursday. New York starter Will Warren got off to a fine start to the campaign but the wheels have come off a little bit since. Warren owns a respectable 3.34 FIP but a 1.41 WHIP and gives up over 5.6 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are in poor form. The Yankees relief corps has logged a 5.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last week while the Royals 'pen owns a similar 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series and I expect them to complete the sweep in convincing fashion on Thursday. Hayden Birdsong gets his fifth start (16th appearance) of teh season for the Giants. He's been serviceable to be sure this season, logging a 3.60 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding just a shade over 3.6 runs per nine innings. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela checks in sporting an inflated 5.39 FIP and 1.97 WHIP while giving up north of 7.5 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest with the Giants relief corps having posted a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with three saves converted and one blown over the last week. Colorado's 'pen owns an ugly 9.35 ERA and 1.96 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Giants run-line last night as they rallied for a 6-5 victory at Coors Field. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday, however, as San Francisco holds an even bigger pitching advantage. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Giants. He's enjoying a renaissance campaign of sorts having posted a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland who owns a respectable 3.55 FIP but a 1.54 WHIP and has been tagged for just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on current form. Giants relievers have combined to log a 1.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown (while working only 22 1/3 innings) over the last week. The Rockies 'pen has recorded a 7.01 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with one save converted and two blown over that same stretch (and they've been pressed into duty for 25 2/3 innings). Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The knee-jerk reaction from most bettors is probably to back the Twins to rebound at home off last night's blowout defeat at the hands of the Rangers. We'll go the other way and back red hot Texas as it hands the ball to Jack Leiter against David Festa of the Twins on Wednesday. Leiter has been solid this season, posting a 4.22 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing only 3.5 runs per nine innings. While we're talking about a fairly small sample size of just four starts and 16 2/3 innings of work, Festa has struggled to the tune of a 4.51 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.9 runs per nine innings for the Twins. The bullpen advantage is decisive in terms of current form and it goes the Rangers way as they've logged a terrific 1.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP (while working just 19 1/3 innings) over the last week. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen has had a tough time lately, posting a collective 7.48 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll back the Rays as they look to bounce back from last night's defeat at the hands of the Red Sox. Zack Littell will get the start for Tampa Bay. While his 5.05 FIP leaves a lot to be desired he has limited the damage thanks to a 1.09 WHIP, yielding just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Red Sox starter Walker Buehler got off to a promising start but has since faded with his FIP rising to 5.29 and his WHIP to 1.44. Buehler has allowed just north of 5.5 runs per nine frames this season. The bullpen advantage based on current form does go to the Rays, even if it is slight. That's still enough to get us behind them at a very reasonable price on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a wild extra innings affair between these two teams last night and I think we're in for another high-scoring contest on Tuesday. Logan Evans will take the ball for Seattle. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in six starts during his rookie campaign. Evans has allowed just over 4.1 runs per nine innings. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. He checks in sporting a 4.95 FIP and 1.36 WHIP and has given up north of 5.9 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen has held up well lately. The Mariners relief corps owns a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last week while the D'Backs 'pen has posted a 5.61 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the same stretch. One way or another, we'll call for offensive fireworks again on Tuesday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants will send Kyle Harrison to the mound against rookie Carson Palmquist as they open a divisional series in Denver on Tuesday. Harrison has been quietly effective since returning to the Giants rotation, logging a 3.55 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Palmquist as he has worked 18 big league innings, posting a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP while yielding a whopping 8.0 runs per nine frames. As you would expect, the bullpen advantage goes to the Giants as well as their relief corps has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last week (and a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season) while the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (and a 4.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only four saves converted and four blown at home) over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the White Sox in the first five innings on Tuesday as they open a series in Houston. Shane Smith has been quietly effective starting for Chicago this season, posting a 3.52 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. While Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has pitched well lately, he still owns a pedestrian 3.93 FIP and 1.40 WHIP on the campaign and gives up just under 5.2 runs per nine frames. While there's no advantage in terms of the bullpen, we'll stick to the first five innings and back the White Sox to stay on level terms. Take Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the surging Rangers. They'll hand the ball to Tyler Mahle. He's been terrific in his debut season with Texas, posting a 3.22 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing just a shade over 2.0 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Rangers bullpen has been outstanding lately, logging a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last week. Compare that to the Twins relief corps' which has posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. Minnesota will give the start to Simeon Woods-Richardson. He owns a 5.25 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in eight appearances this season. Woods-Richardson has given up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings. Take Texas (8*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' 4.5 runs between New York and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We have an excellent starting pitching matchup to open this series on Tuesday. Max Fried takes the ball for New York. He's having another Cy Young Award-caliber season with a 2.79 FIP and 0.94 WHIP through 13 starts. Fried has allowed just a shade over 2.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be rookie Noah Cameron. To say he has impressed in his first five big league starts would be an understatement. Cameron owns a 3.64 FIP and 0.79 WHIP and has yielded just under 0.9 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens struggling lately (both have posted ERA's north of four over the last week), we'll elect to play the first five innings 'under' only on Tuesday. Take the first five innings under 4.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Washington +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The argument can certainly be made that the Nationals have the starting pitching advantage in this contest with MacKenzie Gore taking the ball against Griffin Canning of the Mets. Gore checks in with a terrific 2.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP and gives up just under 2.9 runs per nine innings on the season. Meanwhile, Canning has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. Admittedly, Canning has limited the damage, allowing just 3.2 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is pretty much even based on current form and as a whole, the Nationals relief corps has struggled this season so we'll back Washington plus the half-run in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Washington +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay first five innings moneyline over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rays got a jump on the Red Sox last night and we'll call for them to take control early again on Tuesday. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Ryan Pepiot. He owns a less than impressive 4.35 FIP to go along with a respectable 1.13 WHIP and has limited the damage in 13 starts, allowing just 3.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a different story for Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito. He's allowing north of six runs per nine innings and owns a 4.76 FIP and 1.63 WHIP. With no real advantage in terms of their bullpen, we'll back the Rays in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings moneyline over Chicago at 6:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Phillies took the opener of this series in extra innings last night. We'll look for them to get off to a strong start on Tuesday and back them in the first five innings only. Colin Rea will start for Chicago. He's been good but not great this season, logging a 4.32 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 13 appearances. His counterpart will be rookie Mick Abel. While we're talking about a small sample size, Abel has performed well, recording a 1.13 WHIP and 0.71 WHIP in 11 1/3 innings of work. With the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll stick to the first five innings only with the home side. Take Philadelphia first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati over Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Reds took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I can't ignore the value being offered with them on Tuesday. Andrew Abbott will get the start for visiting Cincinnati. He has logged a 3.44 FIP and 1.06 WHIP in 10 starts, yielding just under 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Guardians starter Slade Cecconi who has posted an inflated 6.12 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.9 runs per nine frames. The bullpen advantage goes the Reds way based on current form as well as they've posted a collective 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last week. Cleveland's 'pen owns a solid 2.05 ERA but a lofty 1.36 WHIP and just one converted save over the same stretch. Take Cincinnati (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Orioles have been playing better lately, I expect them to struggle - at least in the early stages - of Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. Detroit will give Brant Hurter a start, likely in an 'opener' role. Hurter has been terrific for Detroit this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up less than 1.9 runs per nine innings. Cade Povich will counter for Baltimore. While he's shown some improvement lately he still owns a 4.26 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the campaign, having allowed just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. By grabbing the half-run with the Tigers in the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a suddenly red hot Orioles bullpen. The Baltimore relief corps has logged a sparkling 0.42 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over the last week. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on San Diego first five innings moneyline over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Padres in the first five innings on Monday as they have a considerable starting pitching advantage with Nick Pivetta taking the ball against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Pivetta owns a 3.05 FIP and 1.02 WHIP in 12 starts this season, limiting the opposition to just a shade over 3.2 runs per nine innings. May sports a 4.02 FIP and 1.25 WHIP and has yielded north of 4.5 runs per nine frames. While the Padres bullpen has been terrific lately, so has the Dodgers. There's no real edge to be found in the latter innings in this one so we'll stick to the first five innings only. Take San Diego first five innings moneyline (8*).

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona first five innings moneyline over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Diamondbacks in the first five innings only on Monday night as they return home to host the Mariners. Merrill Kelly will get the start for Arizona. He's quietly having a fine season having posted a 3.33 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 13 starts. Kelly has given up just under 3.8 runs per nine innings. Emerson Hancock will counter for Seattle. He checks in sporting a 5.02 FIP and 1.47 WHIP and has been tagged for just shy of 5.2 runs per nine innings. There's no advantage in the bullpen matchup for the Diamondbacks as they've struggled in that department all season and certainly of late. Take Arizona first five innings moneyline (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over the Athletics at 9:35 pm et on Monday.

While Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi's overall numbers this season are by no means great (4.52 FIP and 1.59 WHIP) he has pitched better lately and owns a 5-1 team record over his last five outings. Also note that Kikuchi has yielded a respectable 3.6 runs per nine innings. The A's are undecided on who will start Monday's game but the fact is, their viable options are limited. Focusing on the bullpens, the A's relief corps has posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP while being pressed into duty for a whopping 35 1/3 innings over the last week. In stark contrast, the Angels 'pen has recorded a 1.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over that stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta first five innings moneyline over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

While the Braves are struggling right now, we'll take a flyer on them in the first five innings only on Monday as they head to Milwaukee and look to right the ship against the Brewers. Chris Sale gets the start for Atlanta. He's been terrific this season with a 2.92 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in 13 starts. Opponents have reached Sale for just under 3.2 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Aaron Civale has had a tough time, logging a 5.49 FIP And 1.33 WHIP in four outings spanning 17 1/3 innings. Civale has allowed 5.2 runs per nine innings. The Brewers bullpen has been lights out lately while the Braves relief corps has been consistently coughing up leads. We'll look to avoid that matchup and play the first five innings only. Take Atlanta first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'over' 4.5 runs between Tampa Bay and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We'll call for plenty of offensive fireworks in the early stages of this divisional showdown on Monday in Boston. Shane Baz gets the nod for the visiting Rays. He owns a 5.01 FIP and 1.36 WHIP while allowing just a shade under 5.0 runs per nine innings this season. Bello hasn't been much better, recording a 4.81 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while giving up 4.3 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens are in good shape right now, bringing excellent current form so we'll avoid the latter stages and back the first five innings 'over' only. Take the first five innings over 4.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland first five innings moneyline over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Guardians in the first five innings only on Monday as they hold a considerable starting pitching edge with Luis Ortiz taking the ball against Wade Miley. Reds veteran starter Wade Miley continues to work his way back to the big league level but hasn't been productive since the 2022 campaign. In just two innings with the Reds this season he has recorded a 9.57 FIP and 3.00 WHIP, allowing four earned runs on six hits. Ortiz has been serviceable for the Guardians, posting a 3.81 FIP And 1.40 WHIP in 12 starts. Note the he checks in having given up just one earned run over his last two outings, spanning 11 2/3 innings of work. The bullpen advantage goes to the Reds based on current form (1.64 ERA and 0.59 WHIP over the last week) so we'll stick to the first five innings only on Monday. Take Cleveland first five innings moneyline (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Red Sox answered back after dropping the opener of this series but I look for a response from the Yankees, at least in the early going in Sunday night's series finale. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific this season, recording a 2.93 FIP and 0.93 WHIP, firmly planting him in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation even if it is still early. Rodon has allowed just over 2.7 runs per nine innings. Hunter Dobbins will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.38 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine frames. The bullpen advantage does go to the Red Sox based on current form so we'll stick with laying the half-run in the first five innings only with the Yankees. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels on Sunday afternoon. George Kirby gets the start for the visiting Mariners. He's been downright awful since returning from injury, logging a 5.63 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in three starts. Over that stretch he has allowed a ridiculous 8.6 runs per nine innings. Tyler Anderson counters for Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 4.98 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Anderson has allowed just a shade over 4.4 runs per nine frames which is about par for the course for the veteran left-hander. The bullpen advantage goes to the Angels based on current form as they've posted a 1.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last week compared to the Mariners' 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants delivered a walk-off win for us yesterday thanks to Matt Chapman's ninth inning two-run home run. We'll back San Francisco again on Sunday, this time grabbing the insurance run. Landen Roupp will start for the Giants. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the campaign, allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He owns a 6.38 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has given up just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings. We'll give the bullpen advantage to the Giants based on recent form as they've posted a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last week compared to the Braves' 6.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (with no saves converted and two blown over that stretch). Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll once again back the Mets and lay the half-run in the first five innings at a price that I believe should be even higher. Tylor Megill takes the ball for New York. He's been quietly effective in 12 starts this season, logging a 3.12 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while yielding just under 4.4 runs per nine innings. While that last number is not impressive at all, consider Rockies starter Chase Dollander has given up north of 6.9 runs per nine innings to go along with a 5.97 FIP and 1.44 WHIP. The bullpen advantage isn't nearly as obvious as it may seem so we'll stick with the first five innings once again. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games in this series as their offense has run dry, scoring just a single run in those contests. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles in the first five innings as it hands the ball to a struggling Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw owns a 5.43 FIP and 1.66 WHIP in four starts since returning from injury. He has allowed over 6.3 runs per nine innings. Michael McGreevy makes just his second appearance for the Cardinals after a nice long relief stint of 5 1/3 innings. While he's likely to have a short leash in this one, I expect St. Louis' bats to get to Kershaw and at least keep this one level after five frames. Take St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota first five innings moneyline over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

While this looks like a steep price to back a reeling Twins club at first glance, I believe the line could be even higher. Bowden Francis has had a disastrous season for the Blue Jays so far, posting a 6.47 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up over 6.3 runs per nine innings. That's in stark contrast to Twins veteran right-hander Joe Ryan who owns a 3.48 FIP and 0.90 WHIP, yielding only 2.9 runs per nine innings. The bullpen advantage does go Toronto's way as its relief corps has been lights out over the last week so we'll stick with the Twins in the first five innings only. Take Minnesota first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Arizona and Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

Both of Sunday's starters, Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks and Brady Singer for the Reds, have struggled for the most part this season. Gallen owns a 4.53 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, yielding a disappointing 5.5 runs per nine innings. Singer checks in sporting a 4.31 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, allowing 5.1 runs per nine frames. There's little reason to expect a sudden turnaround at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark on Sunday afternoon. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only as the Reds bullpen has admittedly been outstanding lately, sporting a collective 1.69 ERA and 0.80 WHIP across 21 1/3 innings over the last week. Take the first five innings over (8*).

My selection is on Detroit first five innings moneyline over Chicago at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take a shot with the Tigers in the first five innings on Sunday as they send Jack Flaherty to the hill against rookie Cade Horton of the Cubs. Flaherty has been serviceable to say the least for Detroit this season, posting a 3.94 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 12 starts. He has given up just a shade under 3.9 runs per nine innings. Horton owns a 4.43 FIP and 1.21 WHIP and has allowed just north of 4.2 runs per nine frames. We'll give the Cubs bullpen the slight edge as it has logged a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last week so instead of going full game, we'll back the Tigers in the first five innings only on Sunday. Take Detroit first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh first five innings moneyline over Philadelphia at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

I like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up in favor of the Pirates, even if Paul Skenes has been a hard-luck loser so often in the early going this season. Skenes checks in sporting a sparkling 2.56 FIP and 0.88 WHIP. He has allowed 2.4 fewer hits, 0.5 fewer home runs and 1.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on Sunday, Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez sports a 3.57 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the campaign. The bullpens are a wash based on current form and on the season for that matter so we'll stick with the first five innings only and back the Buccos. Take Pittsburgh first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.

After a wild game between these two teams yesterday we'll call for things to settle down and for the Rays to hold a lead after five innings on Sunday afternoon. Drew Rasmussen has been lights out for the Rays so far this season, logging a 3.29 FIP and 0.87 WHIP. While the Tampa Bay bullpen has been strong as well, this particular matchup is a virtual wash based on current form so we'll stick with the first five frames only. Note that the Marlins will give the start to likely 'opener' Anthony Veneziano. He owns a 5.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP so far this season (in 21 appearances). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

While the Orioles own the bullpen advantage based on recent form, it's the Athletics that should be able to hang tough early with Luis Severino taking the ball against Charlie Morton. Severino has posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this season and while he has struggled at home, I do think he can figure it out over time. Morton comes off a couple of quality outings but still owns a 5.24 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and has allowed more hits, walks and home runs per nine innings compared to Severino this season. In fact, Morton is allowing north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. Take the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Mets laying the half-run in the first five innings at Coors Field on Saturday as we're being offered a price that should be even higher in my opinion. Clay Holmes gets the start for New York. He owns a 3.88 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has allowed just 3.3 runs per nine innings. It's a much different story for Rockies rookie Carson Palmquist. He owns a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in four starts, yielding a whopping 9.0 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup is much closer than you might think based on recent form so we'll stick with the 'first five innings' here. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Seattle first five innings moneyline over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Mariners in the 'first five innings' on Saturday as they have a significant starting pitching edge with Luis Castillo going against Jack Kochanowicz. Castillo owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.27 WHIP on the season and has allowed just a shade over 3.0 runs per nine innings. Kochanowicz on the other hand has posted a 5.47 FIP and 1.56 WHIP and is giving up a whopping 5.5 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup goes to the M's overall this season but is a wash based on current form so we'll back Seattle in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take Seattle first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston first five innings moneyline over Cleveland at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Astros in the first five innings only in this contest as they send Hunter Brown to the hill against Gavin Williams. Brown has been terrific this season with a sparkling 2.67 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in 12 starts. Meanwhile, Williams, who is coming off a fine outing, still owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.45 WHIP on the campaign. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on recent form as the Guardians relief corps has been lights out while the Astros 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.95 ERA over the last week. Take Houston first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a potentially low-scoring affair between the Royals and White Sox. Michael Wacha will take the ball for Kansas City. He's been outstanding this season with a 3.40 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just under 2.9 runs per nine innings. Adrian Houser makes his fourth start for the White Sox. He has posted a 2.37 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, giving up a minuscule 1.5 runs per nine innings. The two bullpens enter in solid form with the Royals 'pen having posted a 1.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last week and the White Sox checking in with a 3.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Pirates on the run-line in this matchup last night and will come back with a different play on Saturday as we take the first five innings 'under' the total. Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia. He continues to pitch well since a rocky first outing. He's seen his FIP drop to 2.53 and his WHIP to 1.18 over his last five outings. On the season he's allowing less than three runs per nine innings. Andrew Heaney will counter for Pittsburgh. He's also been solid this season, particularly at keeping traffic off the basepaths. While Heaney's 4.45 FIP leaves a lot to be desired he has recorded a solid 1.19 WHIP and has allowed just under 3.4 runs per nine innings. Neither bullpen has impressed lately (both have collective ERA's north of four over the last week) so we'll avoid the relief corps' and back the first five innings 'under' on Saturday. Take the first five innings under (8*).

My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Nationals took the opener of this series last night but we'll call for the Rangers to answer back behind their ace, Jacob deGrom, on Saturday. DeGrom has logged a 3.64 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.3 runs per nine innings. Mitchell Parker takes the ball for Washington. He owns a 4.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP and while he has pitched better at Nationals Park, I think the Rangers lineup is in line for a bounce-back performance here. Note that the Nationals bullpen has been awful all season at home and owns a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week. Over the same stretch, the Rangers 'pen has posted a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves continue to struggle and I don't think they'll find their way out of it on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Logan Webb takes the ball for the Giants. He's certainly lived up to his ace billing this season, posting a 2.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts. In stark contrast, Bryce Elder owns a 4.72 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts for the Braves. While the Giants bullpen has made things interesting for itself with a 1.46 WHIP over the last week, the ERA has been far more impressive at 1.99. The Braves 'pen has struggled for much of the season with more blown saves than saves converted and a 4.76 ERA over the last week. Take San Francisco (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Cardinals took the opener of this series in shutout fashion last night and we won with St. Louis in the first five innings in that contest. We'll call for the Dodgers to answer back on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the ball for the Dodgers and checks in off a rare poor outing last time out. I'm confident he'll bounce back, noting he still owns a 3.02 FIP and 1.01 WHIP on the season, yielding just 2.8 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Erick Fedde. He's been good but certainly not great this season with a 4.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 12 outings. Fedde is giving up just shy of 4.1 runs per nine innings. The bullpen advantage isn't massive, but enough to get us to the window with the Dodgers 'pen having logged a 3.07 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last week compared to the Cards' 3.86 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Arizona first five innings moneyline over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Diamondbacks in the first five innings as they continue their series with the Reds in Cincinnati on Saturday. Ryne Nelson gets the start for Arizona and figures to have a short leash as usual. The good news is Nelson has posted a 3.27 FIP and a 1.00 WHIP this season, enjoying a renaissance campaign of sorts in 13 appearances. His counterpart will be Nick Martinez. The right-hander owns a respectable 3.58 FIP and 1.17 WHIP but has allowed north of four runs per nine innings and faces a Snakes lineup that has feasted on righties this season. The bullpen matchup is a virtual wash so we'll stick with the first five frames in this one. Take Arizona first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis first five innings moneyline over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the Cardinals in the first five innings on Friday as they open a series against the Dodgers. St. Louis will hand the ball to Sonny Gray. He's been terrific once again this season, posting a 3.27 FIP and 1.12 WHIP through 12 starts. The Dodgers will give a spot start to Justin Wrobleski, who isn't likely to have a long leash in this game. Wrobleski has worked just nine innings this season, allowing eight earned runs. Los Angeles does hold the considerable edge in terms of the bullpens in this contest so we'll look to steer clear of the later innings. Take St. Louis first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

The Rockies rose up and swept the Marlins in a road series earlier this week but I expect their success to be short-lived. We'll lay the extra run with the Mets in the first five innings on Friday night at Coors Field as they own a considerable starting pitching advantage. Kodai Senga will take the ball for New York. He owns a 3.21 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just a shade over 2.0 runs per nine innings so far this season. That's in stark contrast to Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela. The veteran right-hander owns a 5.41 FIP and 1.98 WHIP and has allowed 8.1 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is actually less decisive than you might think, certainly in terms of recent form. We'll stick to the first five innings run-line as a result. Take New York -1.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee first five innings moneyline over San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the Brewers in the first five innings on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching matchup edge with Chad Patrick going against Randy Vasquez. Patrick owns a 3.30 FIP and 1.21 WHIP and has held the opposition to just a shade under 3.0 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the wheels have come off for Vasquez as his FIP has ballooned to 5.35 to go along with a 1.47 WHIP. He's giving up 4.1 runs per nine innings. There's no edge for the Brewers in terms of the bullpens as the Padres relief corps has posted a sub-1.00 ERA over the last week. Take Milwaukee first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Pirates as they look to rebound following a tough series against the Astros. The Phillies are licking their own wounds after consecutive bad series' against the Brewers and Blue Jays. Joe Ross will take the ball for Philadelphia on Friday. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 29 innings of relief work this season, allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Bailey Falter has been more effective, posting a 4.06 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash both in terms of recent form and home-road splits this season. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox as they head to the Bronx to face the Yankees on Friday. The starting pitching matchup features Walker Buehler for the Sox and Will Warren for the Yankees. While Warren started hot, he's faded recently. On the season he owns a 3.12 FIP but a 1.42 WHIP and has given up north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. Buehler has logged a 4.73 FIP and 1.31 WHIP but has yielded just 4.4 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on recent form. The Sox 'pen has posted a sparkling 0.96 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over the last week and has also held up well on the road this season with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Yanks relief corps' has posted a 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last week and owns a collective WHIP north of 1.30 at home this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati over Arizona at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the Reds on Friday as they look to rebound following a blowout defeat at the hands of the Brewers on Wednesday. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Nick Lodolo. He's posted solid numbers this season with a 3.61 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts. That's in stark contrast to Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez. He checks in sporting a 4.29 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in nine outings and has allowed a ridiculous 8.3 runs per nine innings. The bullpens are a virtual wash but I do like the fact that Reds relievers have been pressed into just 18 1/3 innings of action over the last week while the Snakes 'pen has logged north of 27 frames over that stretch. Take Cincinnati (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Thursday.

We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night as both teams squandered a number of scoring opportunities in a low-scoring Pirates victory. Here, we'll count on another slow start offensively as we have a fine starting pitching matchup featuring Framber Valdez for the Astros and Mitch Keller for the Pirates. Valdez owns a 3.24 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the season. The problem for the Astros right now is not their starting pitching but their bullpen. The Houston 'pen has posted a 10.89 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last seven days. We'll look to avoid that group by only playing the first five innings 'under' on Thursday. Keller owns a 3.20 FIP and 1.26 WHIP on the campaign. Much like the Astros, the Pirates 'pen has struggled lately (last night notwithstanding). Take the first five innings under (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Kansas City and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday.

I like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up in the finale of Thursday's double-header in St. Louis. Two left-handers will take the mound, Cole Ragans for the Royals and Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals. Ragans checks in sporting a 1.98 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and all indications are that he's good to go after recovering from a groin injury. Even if he does falter a bit early, the Royals 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a 1.69 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last week (entering Thursday's action). Liberatore has been quietly effective for the Cardinals, posting a 2.65 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.4 runs per nine innings. We'll look to avoid the Cards 'pen with this play as they've posted a 10.03 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over the last seven days. Take the first five innings under (8*).

American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

I believe this total will prove too high as we have a better pitching matchup than most anticipate. Jack Leiter starts for the Rangers. He owns a 4.25 FIP to go along with a 1.20 WHIP and has yielded just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. Ryan Pepiot has posted almost identical numbers for the Rays but has actually allowed just 3.3 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens are in fine recent form with the Rangers relief corps having logged a sparkling 1.04 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over the last week and the Rays not far behind with a 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, needing to work just 14 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

We want to steer clear of the Yankees fading bullpen right now (8.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over the last week) but we will back New York laying a half-run in the first five innings as it has a decisive starting pitching advantage. Max Fried is having a phenomenal first season with the Bronx Bombers. He has posted a 2.87 FIP and 0.97 WHIP through 12 outings. Contrast that with Guardians highly-touted prospect Slade Cecconi (who came over in the Josh Naylor trade) who has posted a 6.07 FIP and 1.44 WHIP and has been at his worst over his last couple of starts. We'll look to avoid a strong Guardians bullpen that has logged a 1.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last week. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Thursday.

After getting shut out in last night's contest we'll call for the Cubs to bounce back on Thursday. Drew Pomeranz will start for Chicago, likely in an 'opener' role. He's been more than serviceable this season with a 2.20 FIP and 0.51 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Cubs bullpen has been lights out lately as well, posting a 0.49 ERA and 0.44 WHIP over the last week. Contrast that with the Nationals struggling 'pen which has recorded a 3.80 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over that stretch and a far worse 6.88 ERA and 1.75 WHIP at home this season. Jake Irvin starts for Washington on Thursday. He owns a 4.42 FIP and 1.17 WHIP on the campaign. We'll get behind the Cubs in this spot. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Thursday.

We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams at Oracle Park last night. I expect nothing of the sort on Thursday, however. Dylan Cease will take the ball for the Padres against Robbie Ray of the Giants. Both have pitched well this season with Cease having posted a 3.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP and Ray sporting a 3.06 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. Meanwhile, the two bullpens have been reliable lately. The Padres relief corps owns a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last week. The Giants 'pen has posted a 1.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. That WHIP is a little concerning but I do like the fact that the San Fran 'pen has been in action for only 19 innings over the last week. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Seattle first five innings moneyline over Baltimore at 3:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Mariners offense has struggled mightily in recent games with the Orioles taking each of the first two games of this series. We'll call for Seattle to rebound - at least early on - in Thursday's matinee affair. While Orioles starter Zach Eflin has pitched better lately he still owns a 5.38 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. Those numbers pale in comparison to M's starter Bryan Woo who has logged a 3.05 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 11 outings. The key here is to play the first five innings only as the Seattle bullpen has had a miserable time lately, posting an ERA approaching seven and a 1.78 WHIP over the last week (the Baltimore 'pen has logged a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over that stretch). Take Seattle first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Toronto +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Thursday.

There's very little separating these two clubs right now and not surprisingly they've split the first two games of this series. We'll grab the insurance run with the Blue Jays in Thursday's matinee series finale. The two starting pitchers are almost carbon copies of one another with Jesus Luzardo going for the Phillies against Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. Bassitt does bring better current form into this start with Luzardo having allowed a ridiculous 12 earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings against the Brewers. Philadelphia has lost his last two starts. The bullpen advantage goes to Toronto as it has logged a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven days. Philadelphia's 'pen checks in sporting a 5.33 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over that stretch. Take Toronto +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets took the opener of this series on Monday before the Dodgers answered last night. Both games have been incredibly tight. We'll call for another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday and grab the insurance run with the visiting Mets. Let's get the bullpens out of the way first. It's a virtual wash in terms of current form. In general the Mets 'pen has been solid on the road with a 3.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with eight saves converted and four blown. That's an identical save ratio compared to the Dodgers at home. Griffin Canning starts for New York on Wednesday. He's quietly putting together a solid campaign having posted a 4.07 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while limiting the damage allowing just under 3.6 runs per nine innings. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has returned form injury to post a 6.01 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in six starts, yielding 5.2 runs per nine innings. Take New York +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We've won with the full game 'under' in each of the first two contests in this series. We'll take a slightly different route on Wednesday as we back the first five innings 'under' only. Nick Pivetta starts for San Diego. He's having a renaissance season having posted a 2.96 FIP and 1.01 WHIP, quite honestly putting him in the N.L. Cy Young Award conversation even if it is early. Kyle Harrison has stepped in and done a nice job boosting the Giants rotation, recording a 3.91 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in six appearances including two recent starts. He's giving up just over 2.5 runs per nine innings. While both bullpens have been solid lately, the Padres relief corps is entering 'overworked' territory having logged just shy of 27 innings over the last week. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen owns a sparkling 1.47 ERA but an inflated 1.53 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the first five innings under (10*).