SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo got off to a roaring start this season, blasting FCS squad Wagner 69-7 in its opener. Since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games, albeit as considerable underdogs on the road against Nebraska and at home against Coastal Carolina. There's no reason to be down on the Bulls right now and I fully expect to see them take their frustrations out on Old Dominion this week. The Monarchs are off to an identical 1-2 start although their long-term prospects this season aren't nearly as favorable as Buffalo's. Keep in mind, ODU was forced to cancel its entire 2020 season due to Covid concerns and as a result had a number of players transfer out of the program entirely. That leaves the cupboard somewhat bare this season as the Monarchs look to build the program back up. Note that their lone victory so far came against an FCS team, Hampton. In its other two contests, ODU was outscored by an 87-27 margin against Wake Forest and Liberty. The Monarchs are particularly thin on the defensive side of the football and that was more than evident last Saturday as they were torched for four first half touchdowns against Liberty. Buffalo is precisely the type of team they probably don't want to see this week as the Bulls can beat you in a variety of different ways. It's worth noting that in both of the Monarchs previous losses their opponent has taken their foot off the gas in the second half, something I don't anticipate seeing out of Buffalo given it needs to turn in a complete 60-minute effort after suffering consecutive losses. Remember, back in Week 1 against Wagner, the Bulls jumped ahead 38-0 before halftime but still proceeded to add 31 more points in the game's final 30 minutes. Once Buffalo is able to build a lead in this one we can count on its ground game to salt the game away with a trio of running backs capable of going off. In fact, through three games, the Bulls have had three different players lead the team in rushing. QB Kyle Vantrease is more of a game manager than anything else but has shown the ability to go off through the air in the past and this is certainly a matchup where he can take advantage of an ODU secondary that was forced to make wholesale changes after canceling the 2020 season. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with Maryland last week as the Terps won but failed to cover in a low-scoring Friday night game in Illinois. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Terps as they're well-positioned to win by margin against Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense. That high-octane offense has been great in MAC play in recent years, and certainly against FCS opponents. However, pit the Golden Flashes against teams from the Power Five conferences and they don't fare so well. Back in 2019 we saw Kent State score a combined 23 points in three road games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Of course, 2020 was a unique season that only featured MAC games for the Golden Flashes. So far this season we've seen Kent State put up 10 points at Texas A&M and seven points at Iowa - sandwiched around a 60-10 rout of FCS squad VMI. Maryland has the size, talent and experience on the defensive side of the football to effectively swallow up the Golden Flashes offense, which as I mentioned is predicated on playing fast and coming up with big plays from its shifty running backs and speedy wide receivers. Kent State's offensive line, while experienced, hasn't held up well at all through three games this season, allowing QB Dustin Crum to be sacked a whopping 10 times through three games. With Crum taking a beating, the Golden Flashes would probably be well-suited to 'punt' this one before opening their MAC schedule with a home game against Bowling Green next Saturday. Unlike the Terps, Kent State lacks the size up front on defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. Maryland's offense was held down against Illinois last week but it was more due to a lack of execution at key points of the game than anything else as the Terps converted just two-of-10 third down opportunities. QB Taulia Tagovailoa actually completed 32-of-43 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown in the three-point win. Unfortunately, the Terps coughed up a pair of fumbles which ultimately ended up being the different between a win and a win and ATS cover. Look for the Terps to bully the Kent State defensive line and open things up for their underrated ground attack in this one. Tagovailoa will have his moments as Maryland boasts a deep group of talented wide receivers, but I suspect Tayon Fleet-Davis may actually be the star of this game. If you're concerned about the back door being left open in this one, keep in mind Maryland led Howard (admittedly an FCS squad) 38-0 at halftime two weeks ago but continued to pour it on in the second half, scoring another 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Reece Udinski is capable, having gone 5-for-5 passing for 73 yards and a score in that rout. Take Maryland (9*).

CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday.

We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

Something has to give in this one as the Panthers enter this game sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Texans have seen each of their first two contests go 'over' the total. I think a lot of bettors are quick to back the 'under' in this spot, simply due to the fact that the first six primetime games this season have all gone 'over' the total. That's akin to betting on 'black' because 'red' came up six straight times in roulette. I simply feel this total will prove too low. The Panthers defense has feasted through two games this season. Keep in mind, it has benefited from two very favorable matchups - both at home - first going up against an absolutely dreadful Jets offensive line and then facing a Saints team that was in a prime letdown spot off a 'smoke and mirrors' blowout win over the Packers. On paper, this looks like another favorable matchup with the Texans starting rookie third-round draft pick Davis Mills at quarterback. To be honest, I'm not sure he represents all that big of a drop-off from journeyman Tyrod Taylor. An accurate although sometimes overly optimistic passer in college (he's been turnover-prone), Mills was able to get his feet wet in arguably a tougher situation on the road in the second half against the Browns last Sunday, and managed to lead the Texans on one touchdown drive before nearly adding another in the closing minutes. All the Texans have done this season is exceed expectations, putting up 58 points through two games after many (myself included) had them billed as one of the weakest teams we've seen in years. It seems like the entire offense is playing with a chip on its shoulder, with a number of veteran players with a lot to prove including David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Brandin Cooks. Here, they're back home, catching the Panthers off an outright underdog home win - not exactly a favorable spot for visiting NFL teams if history tells us anything. With that being said, I do expect Carolina's offense to absolutely go off in this matchup. Sam Darnold has come out hot this season and with a wealth of burners at the wide receiver position, should be able to roast Houston's secondary. The Texans defense was already lacking talent, but now has to deal with a number of key injuries as well. Kamu Grugier-Hill, who led the team in tackles last week, is listed as questionable due to a knee injury and probably closer to doubtful with this being a short week. Meanwhile, Houston has one of the league's worst secondaries and will have to go without CB Terrance Mitchell and potentially safety Justin Reid as well due to injuries. While the Texans have wisely been playing deep in coverage in an effort to contain big plays through the air, they'll likely have to bump up in this one as they have to respect the ability of Panthers all-world RB Christian McCaffrey. It's a 'pick your poison' type of situation, especially given Houston's inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and I don't expect it to hold up well. What this play really comes down to is whether or not we believe that the Texans can keep the pressure on the favored Panthers for four quarters and I believe they can. We saw them orchestrate a fourth quarter touchdown drive while falling just short of another last week when they could have easily folded the tent trailing by double-digits against the Browns. While they're playing on a short week with a rookie quarterback there's really no reason to hold anything back given this will be their only primetime appearance this season. I've said it before and I'll say it again here, it takes a lot to cash an NFL 'under' these days. We'll ride the wave of 'over' results once again on Thursday night, noting that the Panthers have played to an average total of 52.1 points when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons while the Texans have posted a 6-0 o/u mark in their last six September games, good for an average total of 52.7 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*).

NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Vikings on the moneyline last week in Cincinnati but probably deserved a better fate as they were driving for the winning score in overtime before a costly turnover from RB Dalvin Cook. Noting that they've played consecutive road games four times in the last two seasons and didn't drop both of those games on any of those occasions, I look for them to bounce back here on Sunday in Arizona. The Cardinals couldn't have looked any better in last week's rout of the highly-touted Titans in Tennessee. Everything clicked for the Cards in that game but now they're in a much different situation, favored by more than a field goal back at home against an opponent that will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. Minnesota certainly didn't play its best game against the Bengals last week but was still right there with a shot to win it in overtime. Yes, the Vikes have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the football, but I think we see the offense bounce back and at the very least keep pace with the Cards on Sunday. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that the Texans not only beat the Jaguars but completely annihilated them while the Browns gave up 30+ points in a blown opportunity on the road against the Chiefs is helping keep this line under a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Let's keep Houston's Week 1 blowout win in perspective. The Texans jumped ahead early in that game and the questionably-coached Jags essentially threw their offensive gameplan out the window. It's not as if the Houston defense was dominant - in fact, it recorded just one sack and four QB hurries against rookie Trevor Lawrence, who was making his first NFL start and was bombing away playing from behind all afternoon long. Offensively, the Texans torched what we knew would be a bad Jags defense - we saw it throughout the preseason and it carried over into Week 1. Here, Houston will be up against an elite Browns defense. Forget the fact that Cleveland gave up 30+ points against the Chiefs - that was obviously an extremely difficult matchup. Here, we can expect the Browns 'D' to take its frustrations out on a Texans offense that boasts below-average talent at all of the skill positions. However, it's actually the Houston defense that I'm most concerned about in this one. We've seen the Browns evolve into a more aggressive offense compared to the early stages of last season. I mentioned the lack of pressure the Texans were able to put on Trevor Lawrence last week, with that in mind, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield should absolutely feast on Sunday while the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt takes care of the rest. The Browns run away and hide in this one. Take Cleveland (9*).

AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I have a lot of faith in the Bills coaching staff to come up with the right gameplan and for the players to execute that gameplan as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Miami this Sunday. Let's face it; Buffalo got out-coached and out-gameplanned in its opener against Pittsburgh. The Bills came out expecting the Steelers to play a certain way - particularly on defense where they're known for their blitz-happy nature - and instead they got thrown a screwball and ultimately were unable to prevail in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back matchup on paper - certainly not after the Dolphins 'upset' the Patriots in Foxboro last week - I think it's actually an ideal rebound spot for Buffalo. Bills QB Josh Allen is coming off a terrible performance against the Steelers last week - but again, that had more to do with Pittsburgh's improbable scheme than anything else. Here, Allen will be facing perhaps his favorite opponent in the Miami Dolphins. He's faced the Fins four times in the last two seasons, flaming them for nearly 1,000 passing yards (good for over nine yards per pass attempt), 12 touchdowns and just one interception. That's not to mention the fact he's run all over them for over 100 rushing yards and a score on just 17 attempts. Miami executed its own gameplan flawlessly against the Patriots last week. The problem is, this is an offense (and team) that's built for playing with a lead. Should they fall behind in this one, I don't have a lot of trust in QB Tua Tagovailoa or an average ground attack to lead them back, or even sneak in the backdoor. IT seems to me that a lot of bettors are backing the Dolphins thinking they're getting a 'gift' catching a field goal at home. I expect the Bills to put the Fins back in their place. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bears couldn't have looked much worse in last Sunday night's blowout loss against the Rams in Los Angeles. That was a brutal spot for the Bears and we took advantage, fading them in the first half. Highly-touted rookie QB Justin Fields' time is coming and perhaps sooner rather than later after he saw the field for a number of plays in last week's game. I do expect him to play a factor in this contest as the Bears look to give their home faithful some hope for the future. The Bengals were a popular fade last week but got some favorable bounces and ultimately prevailed over the Vikings in overtime. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate this week, however. Cincinnati still boasts a subpar defense, not the type of unit we trust to back in a hostile environment on the road. Note that the Bengals won only one road game all of last year, that coming against the hapless Texans in Week 16 (they did pick up a tie in Philadelphia in Week 3. The Bears didn't lose their second game last season until Week 7. Anything other than a victory on Sunday could only be seen as a massive disappointment in Chicago. There are so many areas the Bears can improve on off last week's awful performance - sometimes it's actually easier for a team to rally off a season-opening loss than it is to follow a win. Take Chicago (10*).

CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*).

My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It's been a dream start for Virginia Tech as it opened with a stunning upset win over North Carolina and followed that up with an expected victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Hokies to be that good this season - in fact, I still don't. I look for them to be handed their first loss of the season in Morgantown on Saturday. Last week's game against Middle Tennessee State was actually close at halftime with the Hokies leading 14-7. That narrow lead was only thanks to some inept play-calling from the Blue Raiders, not to mention some key penalties. I don't expect the Mountaineers to suffer from either of those things on Saturday. West Virginia got dropped from most bettors' radars after falling by a 30-24 score as a road favorite against Maryland. I'm higher on the Terps than most so I don't believe that narrow loss was all that devastating. The Mountaineers actually led that game heading into the fourth quarter, only a defensive breakdown on a long fourth quarter touchdown proved to be their downfall. In the perfect tune-up for this contest, West Virginia rolled to a 66-0 rout of LIU-Brooklyn last week. I liked the way the Mountaineers never took their foot off the gas in that victory, even pouring it on with four second half touchdowns after heading into halftime with a seemingly insurmountable 38-0 lead. With a tough road game against Oklahoma looming next week, West Virginia needs to put its best foot forward here and keep its season on track with a win. Meanwhile, even with a loss, everything the Hokies want to accomplish this season would still be ahead of them with each of their next four games coming in Blacksburg. Take West Virginia (9*).

CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina is off to a roaring start to the season, having scored a whopping 101 points through two games - both victories. We won with the Chanticleers in last week's 49-22 rout of Kansas. I don't think they're going to put up 40+ points every week, however, and expect Buffalo to offer some resistance here. The Bulls are coming off a 28-3 drubbing on the road against Nebraska last week. They suffered three inexplicable defensive breakdowns, allowing a trio of long Huskers touchdowns in that contest while Nebraska's other TD came thanks to an interception that set it up at the Buffalo one-yard line. With all of that in mind, I expect a fairly conservative offensive gameplan from the Bulls here as they look to effectively shorten the game by leaning on standout RB Kevin Marks to help orchestrate long, clock-churning drives on offense. As for Coastal Carolina, it got caught being a little too aggressive on defense and allowed a pair of long touchdown runs to Kansas QB Jake Bean last week. It won't have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Buffalo's Kyle VanTrease this week. He has run the ball just twice through two games. VanTrease is more of a game manager than anything else - the Bulls certainly don't want him attempting 50 passes again like he did last week (that had to do with the fact that the Bulls were down big in the second half). Note that one of Buffalo's top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, has been ruled out for this game. He had caught seven passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown this season before leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati moneyline over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The importance of this game for both teams can't be understated. Cincinnati came into the season with CFP aspirations and everything is certainly still in front of it after back-to-back blowout wins to open the campaign. This game opens a very difficult two-game stretch that could certainly make or break the Bearcats this season as they'll head to South Bend to face Notre Dame next. The stage certainly isn't too big for Cincinnati. Remember, the Bearcats faced Georgia in what was essentially a road game (albeit in front of just 15,000 fans due to Covid protocols) in the Peach Bowl last season and had control of that contest until the Bulldogs rallied to steal the victory late. Cincinnati is absolutely loaded on both sides of the football. To that point, so is Indiana. The Hoosiers opened the season with a blowout loss on the road against Iowa. That makes getting a win here paramount as it can ill afford to drop another spotlight non-conference game. Indiana caught lightning in a bottle last season, winning six of eight regular season games before falling to Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The Hoosiers lost QB Michael Penix Jr. to a devastating season-ending injury last year. He's back this season but there are still questions whether he's all the way back. Now he faces a fierce Bearcats defense that really has no true weakness. I expect the Hoosiers to be playing from behind at some point in this game, which will force them to open things up and take some shots downfield. That's where I look for the Bearcats secondary to turn the lights out. Cincinnati is going to relish the opportunity to silence a packed house at Memorial Stadium. Keep in mind, the Bearcats are an incredible 33-6 since the start of the 2018 season. This is arguably Luke Fickell's best team since he took over the program and I don't expect to see their CFP dreams get dashed in Bloomington on Saturday. Take Cincinnati moneyline (7*).

CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday.

We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*).

NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on UL-Lafayette minus the points over Ohio at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are off to somewhat disappointing starts this season but there's a difference. While Ohio is winless at 0-2 - dropping two straight winnable matchups - Louisiana-Lafayette did manage to reach the win column last week, albeit in a closer than expected affair against FCS squad Nicholls State. For the Ragin' Cajuns, everything is still in front of them. Keep in mind, they opened the season ranked in the top-25 before dropping a lopsided decision on the road against Texas. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort, but I think we will see it on Thursday night in this nationally-televised affair against Ohio. The Ragin' Cajuns return plenty of talent from last year's team - on both sides of the football. We've yet to see their ground game really get rolling but they are expected to have offensive lineman Carlos Rubio back from injury on Friday and I do think it's only a matter of time before they start finding some rushing success. The passing game is fine with fifth-year QB Levi Lewis at the helm and a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position. Even without top-two WR Jalen Williams making a single catch, Lewis still threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 27-24 win. The defense is hoping to have standout LB Ferrod Gardner back on the field after he missed last week's game due to an ankle injury but even if he can't go there's plenty of depth at the position. I'm making this play assuming he won't be able to play but if he can we'll consider it a bonus. Ohio desperately needed a win over FCS squad Duquesne last week but fell short. It's been a miserable start to the post-Frank Solich era and I don't see the Bobcats turning it around here. The fact that one of their biggest gamebreakers on offense, WR Isiah Cox, remains suspended for disciplinary reasons can't sit well with a team that appears in desperate need of a spark. The Bobcats have a tremendous 1-2 punch in the backfield with RBs De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison but their effectiveness is limited when they can't find a way to build a lead. They scored a kick return touchdown to open last week's game against Duquesne and then added another TD on their next drive. From there, they didn't find the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The stagnant nature of the Ohio offense was really nothing new as it didn't find the end zone even once in a season-opening 29-9 loss to Syracuse. That's the same Orange squad that just lost 17-7 against Rutgers in its home-opener last week. While the line may appear fairly steep in this game, I simply feel that Louisiana-Lafayette is considerably better than it has shown through two games and will take full advantage of this spotlight matchup against a reeling Ohio squad on Thursday night. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*).

AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The first Monday nighter of the 2021 season matches up two teams that will feel some urgency to get off to a positive start after watching their division mates turn in (mostly) impressive performances on Sunday. For the Ravens, they're in a loaded AFC North that saw both the Steelers and Bengals prevail yesterday while the Browns hung tough but ultimately fell by the narrowest of margins on the road against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to contend with an improved AFC West this year - all three of their divisional counterparts secured victories on the first Sunday of the season. With all of that being said, I don't expect to see either of these teams ease their way into proceedings on Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have been ravaged by key injuries heading into the season, particularly at the running back position. I do feel this is very much a 'plug-and-play' offense, however, that obviously revolves round the play of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. We can expect RB Ty'son Williams to step in and fill the void left by J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With the starting job his for the taking, expect him to make a splash against a very manageable opponent on Monday. Of course, Jackson is the real key here and I expect him to have a field day against a Raiders defense that is weak at the linebacker position and also depth-shy in the secondary. With all of the changes Las Vegas made leading up to and during training camp at the linebacker and cornerback positions it's obvious that the organization has reasons for concern at those spots. Ravens TE Mark Andrew figures to be in for a big night matched up against a linebacking corps that should struggle in coverage. Las Vegas did upgrade its defensive line with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens in free agency. However, he's on his fourth team since 2019 and I think there's a reason for that. The Ravens weren't willing to pay up to re-sign him after he was relatively ineffective for them last season. The Raiders offense was actually pretty fun to watch last season, noting that they scored 30+ points on seven different occasions. Known for his lack of aggressiveness throwing the ball down field, we saw QB Derek Carr show some improvement in that regard last season. The Raiders used a first round pick to draft speedster Henry Ruggs in 2020, determined to stretch the field more to keep up with the likes of the high-octane Chiefs offense, and that they did, even picking up a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium last October. TE Darren Waller is the real focal point of the offense, however, and I would certainly anticipate a strong performance from him in a likely high-volume spot here in the opener. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-9-point underdog over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 64.7 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-2 in the Raiders last 11 games played on turf with those contests averaging 57.6 total points. John Harbaugh's Ravens teams have had plenty of success lighting up the Raiders defense over the years, noting that in four meetings between 2015 and 2018, Baltimore put up 33, 27, 30 and 34 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night. Take the over (10*).

NFL First Half Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel Bears head coach Matt Nagy is effectively 'punting' the season-opener against the Rams in Week 1, frustratingly sticking with veteran Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback, leaving electric first round pick Justin Fields relegated to clipboard duty on Sunday night. That suits our purposes just fine as the Rams should control proceedings on both sides of the football. I can't imagine anything other than a limited playbook for Dalton, who will be operating behind a makeshift offensive line with a supporting cast that lacks gamebreaking ability. Dalton had moderate success taking over from an injured Dak Prescott last season but was gifted a loaded Cowboys offense in that situation. Allen Robinson is a stud at wide receiver but he's likely to be offered up blanket coverage from the Rams secondary. Los Angeles simply didn't give up big plays to opposing passing games last year and there's little reason to anticipate anything different here in 2021. On the flip side, Rams QB Matt Stafford couldn't ask for a better opponent to debut against than the familiar Bears. Unlike in Detroit, here he'll be afforded the opportunity to work behind an elite offensive line that gets back all five starters from last season. Chicago's defense is considerably stronger up front than it is at the back-end and that spells trouble in today's pass-happy NFL. Stafford has enough mobility to evade the likes of Khalil Mack and find his wealth of targets down field. Expect Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to find plenty of open field to work with on Sunday night. Here, we'll play the first half only simply due to the ever-so-slight chance that Nagy turns to Fields should things really go sideways in the first half with Dalton. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay moneyline over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a tough way for the Saints to start the post-Drew Brees era as they draw the Packers at a neutral site in Jacksonville due to the devastation caused by Hurricane Ida in New Orleans. Given the fact that they just traded with the Texans for Bradley Roby to solidify their secondary, it's not difficult to figure out where the Saints defensive weakness lies. With that being said, it's difficult to envision a scenario where New Orleans manages to slow the Packers outstanding passing attack on Sunday. Meanwhile, Saints QB Jameis Winston has big shoes to fill and not a lot of talent around him to work with as Michael Thomas starts the season on the injured list. WR Marquez Callaway flashed during the preseason but that was largely against defensive backups. Here he'll be contending with one of the league's best secondaries. I like the chances of Saints do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara having a big game, but not enough to carry the New Orleans offense all on his own. If the Saints are going to win this game they're going to need a big performance from Winston (and perhaps Taysom Hill as well). I just don't believe he's capable of out-dueling Aaron Rodgers in this Week 1 showcase matchup. Take Green Bay moneyline (8*).

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Texans are going to be bad. Really bad. With that being said, Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start running the Jags offense in the preseason (when everyone was paying attention) and most bettors are fairly low on Jacksonville so we're able to grab the Jags laying a very reasonable number of points in Week 1. I believe this line will look awfully short by comparison as the season unfolds and we realize just how bad the Texans are. The Jags were willing to trade capable backup QB Gardner Minshew for a reason. They're confident in Lawrence's abilities and I think we should be too, especially after watching him finally find some rhythm and a solid rapport with his receivers over the final couple of preseason games. Jacksonville boasts a solid wide receiving corps with veteran Marvin Jones, dynamic sophomore Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark. While the season-ending injury to rookie RB Travis Etienne hurts, the Jags have solid depth at that position and I expect RB James Robinson to relish the opportunity to once again stake claim to the starting job. While much will be made about the awful Texans offense, their defense could be even worse. Trading away CB Bradley Roby was further evidence of the Texans intent to tank this season. The less said about the Jacksonville defense the better, but there's no question this is a favorable opening week matchup against a Texans offense that is bereft of dynamic talent with journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor being asked to shoulder the load, with a backfield that consists of the ghosts of David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Broncos castoff Phillip Lindsay. Quarterbacks drafted first overall have had very little success starting in Week 1 but I believe this is a unique situation given the matchup. Take Jacksonville (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think it's a good idea not to overthink this one as the 49ers are poised for a tremendous bounce-back campaign following an injury-ravaged 2020 season while the Lions are just hoping to win a game or two as they field a rag-tag group led by polarizing first-year head coach Dan Campbell. While I don't love the prospect of Jimmy Garoppolo leading the 49ers offense, I think it works just fine here in Week 1. The fact is, highly-touted first round draft pick Trey Lance was turnover-prone during the preseason and this probably wasn't going to be an ideal spot for him to make his first career start. Garoppolo is certainly deserving of holding on to the starting job for now and should do just fine against a well below-average Lions defense. The real advantage the 49ers should have in this contest is on the defensive side of the football. With all of their key cogs back healthy after a disastrous 2020 campaign, I expect this unit to make up for lost time against a woeful Lions offense. Joey Bosa and Arik Armstead are poised for a monster game against the Lions overmatched offensive line and we know how poorly QB Jared Goff has performed when under duress during his time with the Rams. You probably couldn't have picked a worse landing spot for Goff as the Lions simply don't have an o-line capable of pass protecting with any consistency. By halftime, I suspect this line will look awfully short while the 49ers dominant defense should help keep the back door held firmly shut in the fourth quarter. Take San Francisco (9*).

NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This one has the potential to be one of the more sneaky-entertaining, high-scoring games of the week as the Jets travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina's offense was woeful last season, largely due to an early-season injury to do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey but also as a result of game manager Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. While Sam Darnold comes to Carolina with little reason for optimism based on his performance as a New York Jet, I believe Darnold could actually thrive in this Panthers offense. Unlike in New York, Darnold now has a wealth of talent to work with, starting with McCaffrey in the backfield, but also former Jet WR Robby Anderson, big play threat D.J. Moore and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. The Jets secondary should be no match at all for the Panthers receiving corps. Meanwhile, the New York pass rush took a massive hit with the likes of Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry and Jarrad Davis all sidelined due to injuries. The real question here is whether first round pick QB Zach Wilson can do enough in the Jets offense to help this one 'over' the total. I believe he can. While some will chalk up his preseason success to playing against second and third-string defenders, I think we'll see some carry-over effect. Wilson has built up a strong enough rapport with his receivers, most notably former Titan Corey Davis, and should be able to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that should prove to be its defensive weakness, particularly in the early stages of the season. I wouldn't count on the Jets banging their heads against the wall trying to run the football in this one. If anything, look for some designed runs from Wilson as he provides the offensive spark the Jets have so desperately needed for so many years. Take the over (10*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

After taking a deeper dive into this intriguing Week 1 AFC showdown, I really like the way it sets up for the Bills. Pittsburgh has the potential to be a very good team this year in what figures to be the 'last ride' for the tandem of head coach Mike Tomlin and QB Ben Roethlisberger. I say that not because Tomlin's job is in jeopardy but rather due to the clock ticking on Big Ben's career. The real concern for the Steelers lies in two different areas - on the offensive line and on defense. The o-line should be in for a nightmarish day trying to keep Big Ben upright against a fierce Bills pass rush that only got better through the draft. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's secondary - outside of standout Minkah Fitzpatrick - figures to take a step back with tough corners Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton moving on in the offseason. Also of note, one of the Steelers best defenders and pass rushers, Stephon Tuitt starts the season on the shelf. The Bills are quite simply loaded on both sides of the football and will be looking to make a real statement in this tough-on-paper opening week matchup against the Steelers. Some are down on Bills WR Cole Beasley but despite his concerning Covid vaccine stance, he figures to play a major factor here playing second-fiddle to superstar Stefon Diggs. It's easy to forget that these two teams just met in Week 14 last season with the Bills having little trouble prevailing by a double-digit margin, 26-15. A similar outcome is well within the realm of possibility here. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is in Minnesota moneyline over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Rather than lay the field goal with the Vikings here, I'll back them on the moneyline, simply due to the back door potential that I feel the Bengals possess. Minnesota is well-positioned to return to its winning ways here in 2021 with all of its key cogs on both sides of the football healthy entering the new season. This is certainly a favorable matchup for the Vikes, particularly the offense as they should be able to feast on an overmatched Bengals secondary with super-soph Justin Jefferson and dynamic vet Adam Thielen figuring to be the biggest beneficiaries. While I'm high on the Bengals offense in the long-term outlook, there are certainly concerns entering the season with QB Joe Burrow essentially being hidden from plain sight over the course of training camp and the preseason as he works his way back from a devastating injury that cost him much of last season. Cincinnati's offensive line is a major concern and against a tough Vikings pass rush, I'm not sure we'll see Burrow get thrown to the wolves right out of the gate. Cincinnati is brimming with young talent at the wide receiver position but will that group have enough time to get open as Burrow deals with what figures to be plenty of pressure from the Vikes front seven all afternoon long on Sunday. Take Minnesota moneyline (7*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game has shootout written all over it. I'm actually not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough for a game that has 'defense optional' written all over it. The Cardinals offense figures to improve in QB Kyler Murray's sophomore season with an improved offensive line and a more dynamic receiving corps with the underrated addition of rookie Rondale Moore to take over the role of slot receiver. The Titans are bereft of talent in the secondary making this a nightmarish opening week matchup as the defense works its way back into game shape. It's not as if Tennessee has a fierce pass rush to lean on either. Murray should be afforded plenty of time to march the Cardinals up and down the field provided he can take care of the football. On the flip side, the Titans are favored for a reason. While their defense is certainly a weakness, their offense could turn out to be among the best in the entire NFL again this season. The addition of future Hall-of-Famer Julio Jones only adds to an already loaded group that can beat you in so many different ways. Believe it or not, QB Ryan Tannehill is still underrated in most circles in my opinion. He's not a 'flash in the pan' at this point and should be in 'attack mode' for much of the afternoon on Sunday, noting that like the Titans, the Cardinals secondary ranks among the worst in the league from a talent perspective. The Cards do have a capable pass rush but won't be able to pin back their ears against a well-balanced Tennessee offense on Sunday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday.

This has generally been a low-scoring series with six of the last nine meetings between these two in-state rivals totaling 45 points or less. While I'm not expecting a true defensive slugfest on Saturday night in Provo, I do think this one will stay 'under' the total. Utah put up 40 points in last week's win over FCS squad Weber State. Once the Utes offense got rolling, the Wildcats simply had no answers in that contest. While BYU is expected to take a step back defensively after a tremendous 2020 campaign, it certainly held up ok in its season-opener last week, not allowing Arizona to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. The Cougars secondary is thought to be a weakness but I believe that can be negated by an improved pass rush, which recorded four sacks in last week's victory. Also note that the return of strong safety Chaz Ah-You is key after he missed last season. He was extremely active in last week's contest, seemingly playing all over the field and helping to slow the Arizona offense. I'm not sure how much success the Cougars offense can have against a Utes defense that is loaded from the secondary in. Note that BYU QB Jaren Hall threw for just 198 yards in last week's victory with 67 of those yards coming in a single play. Hall has some mobility and ran for 36 yards in the opener. Keep in mind, he racked up 39 yards on a single run. The Utes are terrific at the linebacker position and should be able to keep Hall from breaking off too many big runs. I do think BYU's offense can go on some long, clock-churning drives in this one, which certainly helps our cause. I simply question how many of those drives will end with 7's on the board. Note that standout BYU WR Gunner Romney is currently listed as doubtful for this game after suffering an injury last week. His ability to stretch the field would certainly be missed if he can't go, although I'm actually making this play under the assumption that he does play as there have been whispers of that throughout the week. Take the under (9*).

CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Connecticut at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We cashed a ticket fading the Connecticut Huskies in their season-opener against Fresno State and probably should have gone back to the well again last week as they fell in their home-opener against FCS squad Holy Cross. As I noted at the start of the season, UConn was ravaged by transfers out of the program when it was announced it would sit out the entire 2020 campaign - and it's not as if the talent was there to begin with following a dismal 2019 season. Here, I expect the Huskies to get rolled by a good Purdue Boilermakers squad that is flying under the radar a little bit at this early stage of the season. Purdue shook off some early rust on offense to get past Oregon State by a 30-21 score last week. In that game, Purdue scored a first quarter touchdown before being held to three field goals in the second and third quarters. The good news is, the Boilers offense got on track in the fourth quarter, putting together two touchdown drives. Purdue's pass-catchers looked outstanding as that game progressed with David Bell and Payne Durham combining to catch 15 passes for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming from super tight end Durham. RB Zander Horvath was as advertised despite only getting 21 carries as he gained 81 yards on the ground and found the end zone once. QB Jack Plummer took care of the football and threw for over 300 yards, essentially all that was asked from him in that contest. We saw Connecticut somewhat surprisingly put together three first half touchdown drives last week. The Huskies added a third quarter touchdown score but from there, couldn't do anything positive in the game's final 18 minutes, held off the scoreboard entirely in an eventual 10-point loss. Despite putting up 28 points, QB Jack Zergiotis completed just 17-of-41 passes with just one completion going for more than 15 yards. Now the Huskies will need to contend with a much tougher opponent, noting that the Boilers held Oregon State out of the end zone for a 41-minute stretch in last week's victory and should feast in Storrs on Saturday afternoon. Purdue gave up its share of big plays through the air against the Beavers last week but UConn isn't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This matchup produced a very low-scoring result last year with Oklahoma State prevailing by a 16-7 score. That was a surprising outcome. A relatively low-scoring contest here shouldn't be. Tulsa dropped a 19-17 decision against Cal-Davis in its season-opener last week. In that game, the Golden Hurricane didn't manage to find the end zone until the final five minutes of the first half and that was a clock-churning 12-play drive that included a successful fourth down conversion. From there, Tulsa didn't score another touchdown until the latter half of the third quarter. On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane allowed an early touchdown inside the game's first four minutes but then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. That's not surprising as the Tulsa defense was outstanding last season and gets nine starters back from that unit. This will obviously be a tougher test against Oklahoma State but certainly not an insurmountable one. The Cowboys weren't great on offense in 2020 and have to replace a number of key contributors. Oklahoma State was involved in a low-scoring win against an FCS opponent in Missouri State last week. The Cowboys actually scored three early touchdowns in that contest - all coming inside the first five minutes of the second quarter. From there, they managed just a single field goal, indicating the potentially inconsistent nature of this offense. The defense was tremendous, however, not allowing a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter, when they held a comfortable 23-9 lead. Oklahoma State is strong from the secondary in on the defensive side of the football. Seven starters return to the unit from a group that finished tops in the entire nation in third down stops a year ago. They'll give up enough yardage for Tulsa to orchestrate some clock-eating drives, but I don't expect a ton of big plays from the Golden Hurricane in this one. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Illinois at 11 am et on Saturday.

Whatever positive momentum that Illinois had built in its season-opening upset win over Nebraska is gone after last week's 37-30 loss to UTSA - the Roadrunners first ever victory over a Big Ten program. The Illini are going to get better under head coach Bret Bielema but it's not going to happen overnight. The defense still has the fingerprints of Lovie Smith all over it and that was evident in last Saturday's loss to UTSA. In that game, Illinois allowed two touchdowns before the second quarter was even four minutes old. From there, the Roadrunners would put together five more scoring drives, including a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns when the Illini defense had a chance to rise up and take over the game. Offensively, the Illini weren't able to find the end zone until nearly six minutes into the second quarter. QB Artur Sitkowski bombed away for 42 pass attempts, competing only 22 of those for just 266 yards. For Bielema's offense to work the way it should he needs stability at the running back position. RB Mike Epstein looked like he could be that guy but after leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury he's now expected to miss this Saturday's game as well. Virginia got the perfect tune-up for this one, rolling to a 43-0 victory over FCS squad William & Mary last week. The offense sputtered a bit in the early going but once it found it's rhythm it proved difficult to stop, scoring five touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. QB Brennan Armstrong was effective, throwing for 339 yards on 21 completions and did a nice job of taking care of the football, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. The emergence of former Mississippi State QB and now used predominantly at wide receiver and out of the backfield, Keytaon Thompson was a factor, running the ball four times for 43 yards while also catching five passes for 66 yards. This is a Cavaliers offense that has the potential to be dynamic, particularly against weaker defensive opponents such as the Illini. While Illinois does boast a solid pass rush, Cavs QB Armstrong has some mobility and I expect him to be able to stretch out some plays and ultimately take advantage of a weak Illini secondary. Defensively, the jury is still out as to how much better Virginia will be after a tough 2020 campaign. There's certainly nowhere to go but up and it was a positive sign that the longest play they gave up last week went for just 20 yards, despite the fact that William & Mary figured to be taking some chances down big. The Cavs didn't force a single fumble or interception in the game but I do expect turnovers to play a role in the outcome on Saturday against Illinois, presumably in Virginia's favor. Take Virginia (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Boise State at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

I'm higher on UTEP than most but this is admittedly a tough matchup as the Miners head to Boise to take on a Broncos squad that will be in a foul mood after a blown opportunity in their opener at UCF. While the Miners have already lost RB Deion Hankins to injury, they may have found a star in the making in Ronald Awatt. Since taking over the starting role from Hankins he has ripped off 200 yards and two touchdowns on just 30 carries. With the fantastic WR tandem of Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, the Miners also have the potential to blow the top off Boise's secondary, which lost its two starting cornerbacks from last season. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Boise secondary that came up with only three interceptions all of last year. The problem for UTEP here will be trying to slow down an explosive Boise State offense that just hung 31 points on UCF. Like Boise, UTEP's defensive weakness is in the secondary where it doesn't boast much depth and managed to come up with only two picks all of last year. Both of those came from Duron Lowe, who is no longer with the team. This should be a 'name your score' type of affair for the Broncos and I look for them to go up-tempo in an effort to negate UTEP's solid pass rush. Take the over (10*).

CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for Coastal Carolina as despite its Top 25 ranking (which is well-deserved by the way) will get a rare opportunity to perform in front of a national audience, against a Power Five conference opponent, no less. I expect the Chanticleers to take full advantage. Kansas football has been a disaster for years now. To understand the state of the program, look no further than last week's game against FCS squad South Dakota. The Jayhawks won that game by a 17-14 score. At the end of the game the fans stormed the field. Yikes. Note that Kansas didn't manage to even score in that game until the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was only thanks to South Dakota handing it excellent field position due to a poor punt late in the first half. From there, the Jayhawks reach the end zone again until the final 1:10 of the fourth quarter. Now Kansas heads on the road to face a Coastal Carolina squad that laid waste to FCS foe Citadel in their season-opener last week. A stark contrast to Kansas, the Chanticleers went full throttle offensively from start to finish in that game. They were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter and entered halftime with a 31-0 cushion. They didn't allow a single score until the game was already well in hand, up 38-0 with just over six minutes remaining in the third quarter. I liked the way Coastal Carolina continued to pour it on, even scoring a touchdown in the game's final three minutes. This is a Chanticleers squad that is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football and eager to prove that last season was no fluke, not Covid-assisted. Expect a rout on Friday night. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

While the Bucs continue to be bet up, the total has held fairly steady, even being bet down at some books. I fully expect Tampa Bay to find plenty of offensive success going up against a down-trodden Cowboys defense that might be a little stronger up front with the addition of first round draft pick Micah Parsons, but still looks vulnerable at the back-end. Dallas brings in former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn to run the defense - a curious move considering just how bad Quinn's defenses were during his time in Atlanta. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should be salivating at the thought of going up against Dallas' overmatched secondary, especially with QB Tom Brady back healthy after playing through an MCL tear in the postseason. On the flip side of the equation, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys talent on offense, and also the play-calling of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is in his third season at the helm. Dallas isn't likely to enjoy much success running the football against the Bucs space-eating defensive front but I don't think Moore will bang his head against the wall long trying to force-feed Ezekiel Elliott. There should be opportunities for Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to perhaps get involved in the short passing game in this one against a Tampa Bay defense that was more than willing to give up passes to running backs last season. I also believe that WRs Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are 'bet-on talents' against a capable Bucs secondary. While QB Dak Prescott will be seeing his first game action since Week 5 of last season (he sat out the entire preseason) all indications are that he was 'all systems go' in the latter stages of camp, with no signs of any loss of velocity after dealing with a shoulder/lat injury earlier in the summer. Missing Zack Martin on the offensive line hurts but Dak's mobility helps. What better way to get back to football than with plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night? Take the over (8*).

CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday.

I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this contest on Sunday. Tennessee State is beginning a new era with a completely new coaching staff led by Tennessee Titans legend Eddie George and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. There are plenty of kinks to be worked out in what is expected to be a run-heavy offensive attack, however. In seven Spring games, the Tigers topped out at 26 points, scoring 20 points or less in five of those seven contests. Now they face a Grambling defense that was terrific in 2019 but failed to deliver in the Spring, allowing 30+ points in three of four games. Expect a better defensive performance from Grambling now that it has had a full Fall camp under its belt. Similar to Tennessee State, the Grambling offense couldn't get much going in the Spring, scoring a grand total of 66 points in four games. Also like TSU, Grambling will look to control the clock and generally look to run the ball first on offense. There's just not a ton of explosiveness in the Tigers passing game. This contest will certainly have more eyes on it than usual for an early season FCS clash as it's nationally-televised on NFL Network. Don't count on a whole lot of scoring. Take the under (8*).

CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over New Mexico State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

We successfully faded New Mexico State in its first real game action since the 2019 season last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as it takes another step up in class in its first road test of the season against San Diego State.

The Aggies did little right in last week's 30-3 drubbing at the hands of UTEP. There's little reason to expect another week of practice will change anything. The questions start at quarterback where neither Jonah Johnson or Weston Eget appear to be the answer under center. The duo combined to complete a woeful 9-of-33 passes for 89 yards in last week's lopsided loss.

The ground game didn't work either as no NMSU back ran for more than 4.1 yards per carry. Backup QB Weston Eget had the team's longest rush of the game and that went for just 19 yards in garbage time.

The final score actually could have been much uglier were it not for UTEP committing a whopping 12 penalties for 140 yards. Penalties were really the only way that NMSU was able to move the football down the field. The Aggies did manage two interceptions as well but that's not something we can bank on again this week as they face an Aztecs squad that is likely to pound away with its elite ground attack for much of the night.

The Aztecs missed playing in a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last season with an injury to RB Greg Bell essentially derailing their campaign. Bell is back this year, along with five other players that have found their way onto the Reese's Senior Bowl Watch List.

While San Diego State isn't exactly set at quarterback with Jordon Brookshire - last year's fourth-stringer at the position - winning the job. All indications are that Brookshire won the job convincingly and the Senior QB will be afforded a favorable matchup to open the season here, noting that the Aggies didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to UTEP. Brookshire has plenty of talent around him with an elite backfield not to mention all seven leading wide receivers from a year ago back in the mix and TE Daniel Bellinger, who could very well have an NFL career ahead of him.

This is obviously a steep number but I'm not sure the oddsmakers or the betting majority realize just how bad this Aggies squad is - not yet, at least. Last week's opponent, UTEP, entered the season hoping that it could sneak into a Bowl game and a win over NMSU was imperative. San Diego State on the other hand, has loftier goals, believing it can contend for a Mountain West Conference title after last year's disappointment. Look for the Aztecs to win in convincing fashion in Week 1. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Syracuse at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Most are calling this a 'must-win' game for Dino Babers and the Syracuse Orange. But as we all know, motivation is rarely enough. I simply feel this is a favorable matchup for an Ohio squad that only got to play three games last season. The Bobcats return plenty of talent on both sides of the football. I really like the way they're set up at the skill positions on offense. Kurtis Rourke is expected to start at quarterback but former UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will play a role as well. Keep in mind, Rogers was able to learn the Bobcats offense last year, getting into their three games and enjoying some success both on the ground and through the air. The running back situation is even better with De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison poised to take another step forward. Tim Albin is the new head coach but he's by no means new to the program as he served as the offensive coordinator. He won't change much from what legendary now-retired head coach Frank Solich was doing and that's a positive thing. Syracuse has two capable quarterbacks but Tommy DeVito has yet to show the consistency needed to succeed at this level (offensive line issues have certainly played a role) and Garrett Shrader transfers in from Mississippi State and is still learning the offense. The Orange defense was awful a year ago. Plenty of key pieces are back but the secondary still looks like it could be a weak spot and Ohio has the receivers to take advantage. Syracuse obviously won't go away quietly in this game but I believe the betting marketplace in general is sleeping on this Ohio squad, which has a lot of winnable games on its 2021 schedule. This happens to be one of them. Take Ohio (9*).

My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over USC at 5 pm et on Saturday.

We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Spartans Week 0 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back San Jose State as it hits the road for the first time this season, making the trip to Los Angeles to face the mighty USC Trojans.

This Spartans team is the real deal. They pulled off a stunner in the Mountain West Conference Championship last year, defeating Boise State with relative ease. They have unfinished business to take care off this season, however, as they couldn't quite wrap up a perfect season, falling to Ball State in the Arizona Bowl.

San Jose State is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football QB Nick Starkel is back to lead the offense with speedy RB Tyler Nevens in the backfield. Both went off in last week's rout, with Starkel throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with one interception) without barely breaking a sweat and Nevens gaining 91 yards and a score on the ground on just 12 carries. The wide receiving corps had some question marks heading into last week's opener, more specifically who would step up and pick up the slack with two of last year's top targets gone. All that group did against Southern Utah was explode with four different receivers picking up individual game-long catches of 40+ yards.

Needless to say, the Spartans will be facing a much tougher challenge this week as they face power program USC. It is worth noting, however, that the Trojans are coming off a bad year (by their standards) defensively and have to replace a number of key parts. I'm just not convinced we're going to see USC suddenly flip the switch and become a dominant defense again here in Week 1 of the 2021 season.

San Jose State's defense was incredible a year ago and gets 10 starters back from that team. We saw flashes of brilliance again in Week 0 as the Spartans 'D' manhandled an overmatched Jaguars offense. Again, this is a completely different situation heading out on the road to face an explosive Trojans offense. With that being said, I believe San Jose State has it all on the defensive side of the football and can at the very least minimize the effectiveness of this loaded Trojans offense, that like the defense, does have some needs entering the new season.

To me, the Spartans have the look of a team that's poised for big things this year but it can't go out and get drilled by USC if it wants to reach its loftiest goals. You could see in the second half of last week's contest that San Jose State had already moved on to this game mentally and I believe that drubbing of Southern Utah serves as the perfect tune-up heading into this showdown. While an outright upset certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans and expect a competitive affair throughout. Take San Jose State (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected.

Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here.

Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one.

Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back.

Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest.

Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*).

CFB on BTN Game of the Year. My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Temple at 3 pm et on Saturday.

NOTE: This game was moved from Thursday to Saturday. We'll stick with our original play on Rutgers.

Bettors are generally 'Rutgers-averse' as in they're not all that interested in backing the Scarlet Knights thanks to years of futility in Piscataway. Last season, the Knights actually made some headway despite a 3-6 overall record as they were highly-competitive and could have just as easily won six or seven games. Now, with their sights set on a possible Bowl game, I look for the Knights to get off to a strong start in their home opener against Temple.

The Owls were one of the weakest teams in the nation in a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season. They finished 10th in the AAC, averaging just 20 points per game. The hope is that Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis can be the answer at quarterback. He was the opening day starter for the mighty Bulldogs last year but struggled against Arkansas and only appeared in two more games before deciding to transfer. Mathis got that season-opening start due to necessity only as the Bulldogs were dealing with injuries at the position. Now he needs to learn a new offense and doesn't exactly have a cupboard full of weapons to work with.

Re-al Mitchell could eat into some of Mathis' snaps. Keep in mind, Mitchell couldn't win the starting job last year, even after Anthony Russo went down to injury. Standout RB Re'Man Davis is gone. The owls coaching staff is saying all the right things when it comes to the Owls backfield options but they're also talking about a running back by committee approach. That tells me there's no true standout in the backfield entering the season.

Defensively, the Owls got torched throughout the 2020 season. Now they lose their sack leader from a year ago, along with three defensive tackles. Two corners are gone as well, from a group that couldn't come up with any big plays with just three interceptions all season.

Rutgers on the other hand is loaded with returning talent on the offensive side of the football. I like the stability and continuity of this group which will be led by QB Noah Vedral. He was asked to do a little too much last year and ultimately threw just nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. I expect a different story to unfold this year as he can let the likes of RB Isaih Pacheco and the outstanding WR duo of Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank go to work. The o-line was an issue a year ago but gets all five starters back and there's really nowhere to go but up. This is a favorable matchup for that unit to ease its way into the new season as the Owls aren't likely to have a dominant pass rush.

There are a couple of key losses for the Scarlet Knights to deal with on defense but they return the bulk of the unit that did enough last season to provide some optimism entering 2021. The Knights actually scooped one of Temple's best defenders from a year ago in the transfer portal in Ifeanyi Maijeh. He might not even earn a starting job which tells you that the Knights boast plenty of talent on the defensive line. They're loaded at linebacker and have something to build on in the secondary with a pair of corners that earned honorable mentions on the All-Big Ten list last season. I expect this defense to make progress this season, and like the o-line, it gets a favorable opening week matchup against a Temple offense that isn't likely to come out firing on all cylinders.

If Rutgers is going to make a run at a Bowl game, this is a game it needs to win. With Syracuse and Delaware on deck there's a real chance for the Scarlet Knights to get off to a strong start before the schedule really toughens up in late September. I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being represented with this line sitting under two touchdowns (at the time of writing). Take Rutgers (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday.

A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season.

North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels.

QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points.

The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here.

Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits.

If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches.

Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday.

All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday.

I believe the North Carolina defense has the chance to be good this season, really good. The headline-grabber is the loss of outstanding LB Chazz Surratt. However, virtually the entire starting defense outside of Surratt returns and I like the way the Tar Heels are built from the back in, with an outstanding secondary, a loaded linebacking corps and a solid defensive line that might give up some yards on the ground, but will put enough pressure on Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister to make him uncomfortable for much of the night on Friday.

The Hokies offense went as far as RB Khalil Herbert took them last year, as he ran for just under 1,200 yards - good for more than eight yards per rush. He's gone and now someone has to pick up the slack. Virginia Tech has a couple of excellent wide receivers in Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner but will Burmeister have enough time in the pocket to find them downfield? That's a big question as the Hokies lost two of their best offensive linemen to transfers, not to mention Christian Darrisaw to the NFL. Expect to see Virginia Tech use its short to intermediate passing game to try to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this one in hopes of essentially shortening the game and keeping the ball out of the hands of the explosive North Carolina offense.

The Tar Heels hung 56 points on the Hokies in last year's meeting. Needless to say, they'll have Virginia Tech's attention here in Week 1. The Hokies added Jordan Williams from Clemson and should at the very least be better defensively than they were at the tail-end of last season when they quite simply came unglued. They'll likely only be able to keep the Tar Heels offense at bay for so long, but that should be enough as we're dealing with a lofty total in the mid-60's at the time of writing.

North Carolina's offense should be every bit as explosive as it was a year ago, even after losing a host of key performers to the NFL. It might just take a bit of time. Again, this total assumes the Tar Heels are going to come out in midseason form. Even if that is the case, it generally takes two to topple a total this high this early in the season. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

College Football Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th.

C-USA media members have the UTEP Miners slated to finish in last place in the West Division this season. I believe that the potential is there for a much better campaign, however.

The Miners haven't had much recent success to boast about. They've gone a miserable 5-27 going back to the 2018 season but three of those victories came in eight games last season. Here, they have an excellent opportunity to get off to a fast start with this road tilt against New Mexico State followed by their home opener against FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. This is a team that has lofty goals this season, believing it can exceed expectations and reach a Bowl game.

Note that UTEP was favored in only three games all of last season and won all three by an average margin of 14 points.

UTEP returns the bulk of the squad that won those three games last season. On offense, there's finally some continuity with QB Gavin Hardison back under center. In the backfield, the potential is there for a breakout campaign from RB Deion Hankins who returns after rushing for nearly 600 yards and nine scores as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miners also have an excellent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett. There are questions on the offensive line after a shaky 2020 campaign, but with plenty of experience returning there's reason for optimism.

Defensively, the Miners draw a favorable matchup against an Aggies offense that has been punchless over the last couple of seasons (keep in mind New Mexico State didn't play a single game in 2020 due to Covid). UTEP has a true star on the outside in DE Praise Amaewhule, who finds himself on the Bednarik Award Watch List for the nation's best defensive player. He could quickly climb up the NFL Draft board should he repeat or improve on his incredible 2020 performance. UTEP's secondary could be leaky early on, but this is a matchup where I expect its pass rush to give the Aggies little time to get the football down the field for big plays. The Miners are set on the defensive line and should devour a New Mexico State offensive line that lacks continuity and will need time to come together as a unit.

There's a QB competition ongoing for New Mexico State with junior Jonah Johnson trying to hold off Weston Eget. Eget was more effective in the team's first of two Spring games against non-FBS opponents but injured his ankle early on and missed crucial practice time as a result. Johnson struggled against the likes of Dixie State and Tarleton State and I question how he will perform should he get the nod against the Miners vaunted pass rush here. While the Aggies should have a solid backfield, again this is a tough opening matchup against a good defensive line.

Defensively, the Aggies allowed their two FCS opponents in the Spring to rush for over five yards per carry. Meanwhile, they failed to come up with a single interception. While I realize they've had plenty of practice time since then and those two results don't tell the entire story, this is a defensive unit that is unrecognizable compared to the 2019 edition and I simply feel it's going to take time to round into form. Take UTEP (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th.

I'm not anticipating a shootout as UTEP and New Mexico State look to start their 2021 campaigns on a positive note on opening night.

The Miners offense struggled for the most part last season. It does bring plenty of continuity to the table here with virtually all of the same faces returning but an offensive explosion in the season-opener might be a little too much to ask. I do think we'll see UTEP find plenty of success putting together long, clock-churning drives as it matches up well against the New Mexico State defense. With that being said, priority one will be taking care of the football after finishing in the bottom-13 of the nation with over two turnovers per game last season.

On the flip side, the Miners defensive front should be able to camp out in the Aggies backfield in this one. The strength of UTEP's defense certainly lies in its pass rush and while New Mexico State has brought in some help on the offensive line, it's going to take time to come together as a unit. Here, with two unproven (and turnover-prone in the case of junior Jonah Johnson) quarterbacks, I expect to see a relatively safe gameplan from the New Mexico State offense with perhaps a heavy dose of its 1-2 backfield tandem of Alex Escobar and O'Maury Samuels.

As is often the case, we're dealing with a high early season total based largely on the potential of both offenses rather than what we're actually going to see on the field. This is actually a critical Week 1 affair for both teams as they hope to avoid setting a negative tone with a tough schedule ahead. Take the under (8*).

CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th.

This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively.

Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss.

Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs.

The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here.

Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

I'm actually surprised at how popular of a pick the Chiefs seem to be entering Super Bowl Sunday. With that being said, I can't help but think the books are begging for Kansas City action with this line sitting at a field goal. The public hasn't been behind Tom Brady's Bucs at all in these playoffs, and that doesn't appear to be changing here. Brady has looked as relaxed and confident as he has at any stage of his career during this playoff run. It certainly seems as if the Bucs as a team are getting stronger with each passing game. The Chiefs have looked invincible for much of the last two seasons but I think they're going to be up against it on Sunday. When it comes to the NFL it's tough to bet against a 'team of destiny' as the Bucs certainly appear to be. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.

I'll lay the points with the Chiefs here. I predicted a Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl prior to the playoffs and I'm not going to waver from that decision here. Yes, the Bills have impressed. Not just in the playoffs but all season long. Yes, they're a formidable opponent capable of giving Kansas City all it can handle on Sunday night. With that being said, I simply feel the Buffalo defense can, and will, be exposed and exploited by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Mahomes is obviously banged-up, dealing with a concussion and a toe injury. There are plenty of doubters out there that don't believe Mahomes can be as effective in this game. Even if he is somewhat limited, I'll still take him over a beatable defense and in the worst case, expect Andy Reid to gameplan around Mahomes limitations. All told, it serves to give us a very reasonable pointspread to work with. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFL Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay (moneyline) over Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.

To put it simply, I can't envision the Packers losing this game. Rather than lay the 3 or 3.5 points against a Tom Brady-led Bucs offense that has proven time and time again it can play comeback ball and has high-potential to sneak in the back door for a push or cover, I'll keep it simple and back the Packers on the moneyline as I do feel the price could and should be even higher than it is. Of course, if you follow my plays regularly you know that I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl prior to the playoffs. I certainly didn't see anything to make me believe otherwise in last week's rout of the Rams. Green Bay didn't really need to bring its 'A' game against an undermanned Rams squad, but will need it here. I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to deliver a peak performance against an admittedly rolling Bucs squad. I do think a little bit of recency bias could be at play here with most bettors remembering Tom Brady and the Bucs big performance against the Saints last Sunday night. Last Saturday's game at Lambeau Field has been all but forgotten. Give the Bucs credit, but they were in a fight with the Saints for three quarters - and that was with Drew Brees struggling mightily - clearly a shell of his former self and without swiss-army knife Taysom Hill to yield to. The fact is, this Packers team is different this year. Aaron Rodgers looks like he's having as much fun as he's had at any point of his career, and his supporting cast seems to get better with each passing week. With revenge on their minds after that ugly regular season loss in Tampa, look for the Pack to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LV in South Florida with a win on Sunday afternoon. Take Green Bay moneyline (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.

While last night's anticipated shootout in Buffalo fizzled, I don't expect this game to suffer the same fate on Sunday afternoon. The Browns offense has shown the ability to hit big plays and score points in bunches, clearly evolving over the course of the season and absolutely playing their best football entering this game. I don't expect Baker Mayfield and company to back down from a shootout here. The matchup actually sets up well with Cleveland's strength running the football and Kansas City struggling to contain opposing running backs all season, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has mismatches all over the field with WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in line for monster afternoons on Sunday. Cleveland's secondary has been ravaged by Covid protocols in recent weeks but should be back to virtually full strength here. I just question whether they snap back into action and contain two of the league's best playmakers in Hill and Kelce. QB Pat Mahomes will undoubtedly get his against a beatable Browns front. This total is sky high for a reason. Take the over (10*).

NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I believe this has the potential to be the most entertaining - and highest-scoring - game of the Divisional Round. Baltimore got 'over the hump' so to speak with a come-from-behind win in Tennessee last Sunday. This Ravens offense has seemingly been getting better with each passing week - no longer the run-first (and run-only) offense that we saw a year ago. QB Lamar Jackson did it with his arm and his legs in last week's contest and should pick up right where he left off against what I consider to be an overrated Bills defense. Buffalo didn't get after Colts statue-esque QB Philip Rivers last Saturday and will be hard-pressed to do so against Jackson here. Of course, the Bills offense can score with the best of them and while this is a tough matchup against a stout Ravens defense, I believe QB Josh Allen and his terrific receiving corps will be up to the challenge. Last week it was the Stefon Diggs show but here against the Ravens I look for John Brown and Cole Beasley to step up as well. I don't expect to see Buffalo do too much running in this game, which certainly works in our favor, lending itself to shorter, but still productive, drives. I don't expect either side to back down in what I project as a back-and-forth shootout. Take the over (10*).

NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:35 pm et on Saturday.

Full disclosure - the Packers were my pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the NFL Playoffs getting underway last weekend. Here, I won't hesitate to back them laying a very reasonable number against the Rams. I'll give plenty of credit to the Rams for outlasting the Seahawks last Saturday. Los Angeles took advantage of a disjointed Seattle offense that took a turn for the worse past the midway point of the season and never really turned it back around - ultimately its downfall in my opinion. QB Jared Goff certainly didn't look healthy in last Saturday's win, with very little zip on any of his passes. He's probably the Rams best option again this week, however, after backup John Wolford suffered a scary head/neck injury last Saturday. Los Angeles will once again rely on its defense to win this football game - I'm just not convinced it can shut down the Packers vaunted offense the way it did the Seahawks. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers looks like he's having as much fun as he has at any point of his long illustrious career. This is a better offense than most give it credit for in my opinion. Defensively, the Packers do have some holes up front but I'm not sure the Rams have the offense to take advantage. Look for Green Bay's rock solid secondary to be the real difference maker in this contest. They'll give up some yardage over the middle to slot man Cooper Kupp, but outside of that, I look for them to lock down this inconsistent Rams 'O'. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio State and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday.

I'll keep it simple with this play. Alabama finished number one in the nation in points per play this season and it wasn't all that close. The Crimson Tide should score at will in this game - even against an elite Ohio State defense. The Tide simply have too much NFL level talent on offense to be slowed in this game. However, we're talking about a matchup with a single-digit pointspread, and I do believe Justin Fields and the Buckeyes offense can keep pace for much of this game. Ohio State checks in ninth in the country in points per play and should be able to make some headway against an Alabama defense that is always exceptional but certainly not invincible. We're dealing with a high total in this one but it's in the 70's for a reason. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday.

While the Saints defense should certainly be respected here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout at the Superdome on Sunday afternoon. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly exceeded expectations once he reclaimed the starting QB job in Chicago, albeit against a relatively easy schedule down the stretch. Here, Trubisky will likely be leading the Bears offense in catch-up mode for much of the day and he has just enough weapons to inflict some damage against the Saints stout defense. New Orleans has the potential to go off with RB Alvin Kamara back on the field against an overrated and undermanned Bears defense. While QB Drew Brees has been relegated to more of a 'game manager' role on many occasions at this stage of his career, I expect him to have a big day on Sunday afternoon. The Chicago defense is very beatable and Brees is likely to have WR Michael Thomas back on the field for this one. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Washington Football Team hasn't posted an 'over' result since its Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys and I don't see that streak ending, even against the high-scoring Bucs on Saturday night. Washington can certainly use the 'no one believes in us' mantra as a near-double-digit underdog entering this contest. There's reason for it to be somewhat confident as it boasts a fierce defensive front that should put Bucs legendary QB Tom Brady under duress all night long - or at least that's the hope. Brady's struggles when under pressure have been well-documented, particularly in recent years. Of course it generally takes two teams to topple a total and in this particular matchup, Washington is relatively hamstrung on offense. QB Alex Smith is dealing with a calf strain and while he's likely to start, it remains to be seen whether he can finish this game. Standout RB Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a turf toe injury while WR Terry McLaurin had to shake off a high ankle sprain to suit up last week. Despite playing the 'under' in this game, we actually want the Washington offense to find some success moving the football and eating some clock in this game, and I'm confident they can do that against a Bucs defense that will yields plenty of completions in the short passing game - an area of strength for this WFT offense. Having scored 23 points or less in 12 of 16 games this season, there's little reason to anticipate a sudden breakout on the scoreboard from Washington here. Take the under (10*).

NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Saturday.

We won with this same play the last time these two teams met in Week 16 - a game that totaled just 29 points. While I'm not going to count on another sub-30-point result here, I do expect this third meeting of the season to say 'under' the low posted total. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson threw just one touchdown compared to two interceptions in two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals. There's little reason to expect a sudden breakout here, with Wilson being asked to do far less down the stretch during the regular season, as the Seahawks defense rose to prominence. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has a big question mark under center - will it be Wolford or Goff under center? Regardless which quarterback gets the start, they're likely to struggle against a Seattle defense that absolutely rounded into form at the most critical point of the season. I do believe Los Angeles can have some success moving the football and orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in this game (the return of left tackle Andrew Whitworth is key) but I'm not confident in its ability to end many of those drives with 7's on the board. Much like the Rams, the Seahawks defense has the ability to take away big plays downfield, and the presence of Wolford (or Goff for that matter) also keeps a cap on that big-play potential. These two teams know each other inside and out and their recent matchups have been un-exciting for those that love wild, high-scoring shootouts. Expect another hard-fought, low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.

I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Bills host a playoff game for the first time since 1996 on Saturday afternoon against the Colts. Indianapolis boasted an elite defense during the early stages of the season but the wheels came off a little bit down the stretch and now it draws a nightmarish playoff-opening matchup in Buffalo. The Bills got some good news on Thursday with underrated WR Cole Beasley returning to practice and superstar WR Stefon Diggs indicating that he's good to go for Sunday's game despite a nagging oblique injury. I fully expect Bills QB Josh Allen to let it fly against a Colts defense that has had a penchant for giving up big plays through the air. The question is whether the Colts can do enough on offense to help this one up and over the relatively high total. I believe the answer is yes. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor was positively dominant down the stretch, albeit benefiting from some positive game scripts. You can run on the Bills and I'm confident that Taylor can do enough to open things up for veteran QB Philip Rivers. Big plays will be tough to come by against this Bills secondary, but look for the Colts to grind out enough Taylor-fueled touchdown drives to help this one along. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers delivered a stunning upset win over the Cardinals last Saturday leading some to believe they may offer some value in an underdog role against the Seahawks here this week. I don't believe that's the case, however, as we should see San Francisco effectively fold the tent against a motivated Seahawks squad that is absolutely rolling heading into Week 17. While Seattle has leaned heavily on its defense to win games in recent weeks, this is a prime breakout spot for its offense against a 49ers defense that has been injury-ravaged all season long and can't have much left in the tank at this point. Meanwhile, a number of the 49ers key cogs on offense will sit this one out, leaving QB C.J. Beathard in tough against a still-surging Seahawks defense. Look for Seattle to be able to take the air out of the football in the fourth quarter of this one as it imposes its will and ultimately posts a comfortable win. Take Seattle (10*).

NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Ravens in their blowout victory over the Giants last Sunday - our second time winning with them in the last three games - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again as they hit the road to face the Bengals in Week 17 action on Sunday. As I noted in last week's analysis, Baltimore's bandwagon effectively cleared during a three-game Covid-induced slide in late November-early December. Since then all the Ravens have done is get healthy and go a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four contests. Now they draw another favorable matchup against the Bengals, who are in a clear letdown spot off last week's offensive eruption against a hapless Texans defense. Despite winning consecutive games in improbable fashion, the Bengals were actually shredded for nearly seven yards per rush by the Steelers and Texans over the last two weeks. The Ravens should have little trouble continuing that trend here. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense has rounded back into the form we saw earlier in the season and is in line for another productive day against a Bengals offense that isn't nearly as good as it looked last week. The Ravens had no trouble disposing of the Bengals by a 27-3 score the last time they squared off. Expect another lopsided result here. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game sets up as a shootout between the NFC North division rival Vikings and Lions in friendly conditions at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins won't have RB Dalvin Cook in the backfield to relieve the pressure on Sunday afternoon but he should find plenty of success nonetheless with the Lions having no semblance of a stout defense whatsoever. Detroit doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks, doesn't subdue ground attacks and certainly does not contain opposing wide receivers. While Cook's absence isn't ideal, the Vikes still have a terrific stable of running backs to lean on. Meanwhile, Cousins should absolutely feast on a deplorable Lions secondary with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in line for big days. Detroit may actually get QB Matt Stafford back on the field on Sunday afternoon and regardless of all the injuries he's dealing with, I still expect him to go all out against a very beatable Vikings defense. Detroit's offense was a complete no-show last Saturday against Tampa Bay as it was completely thrown out of rhythm by Stafford's early exit. Here, I do expect to see Detroit find the end zone on multiple occasions and aim to end another disappointing campaign on a relative high note. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and N.C. State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kentucky scored 41 points in its most recent game - a 23-point rout of South Carolina. The Wildcats scored 30+ points on three different occasions but all three of those games came against non-Bowl teams. Here, the Wildcats will be in tough against an N.C. State defense that ranks 51st in the nation in points allowed per play and 42nd in sack percentage. Of course, Kentucky's calling card is its defense - that's been the case for a number of years. This is a manageable matchup for the Wildcats defense, noting that they rank 49th in the nation in points allowed per play. Both teams will give up their share of rush yardage but that should only end itself to long, clock-churning drives on Saturday afternoon. Note that Kentucky QB Terry Wilson threw more than a single touchdown in a game just once this season. N.C. State QB Bailey Hockman threw more than two touchdowns on two occasions but those performances came against two weak defenses in Florida State and Syracuse. Take the under (10*).

CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Cincinnati has gone undefeated this season and we've been along for the ride in a few of those victories but here I believe the Bearcats are going to be in tough trying to keep this game close against Georgia. If you're not going to come up with big, explosive plays on offense, you're not likely going to hang around against the Bulldogs. Georgia's defense is just too good to string together long, methodical touchdown drives against but unfortunately that's been the Bearcats M.O. this season. In their only two losses against Florida and Alabama, Georgia gave up a number of long touchdown runs and passes - Cincinnati just isn't likely to display that same sort of quick score ability. Meanwhile, we saw Georgia's offense really round into form down the stretch. While it will face a tough challenge here, it's not anything it hasn't faced in the SEC this season. The Bearcats are a talented team across the board, but boasts few players that have NFL potential. Georgia, on the other hand, is loaded with NFL-level talent and poised to end its 2020 campaign on a high note on New Year's Day in its own backyard (this game will be played in Atlanta). Take Georgia (10*).

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Ball State at 2 pm et on Thursday.

San Jose State has proven to be an underrated team all season long and there's little reason to expect it to finally get tripped up on Thursday against MAC opponent Ball State. The Spartans exceeded expectations at every turn this season, culminating with a first ever MWC championship over perennial winner Boise State. I really liked the way QB Nick Starkel stepped up in that contest, proving he is more than just a game manager by throwing for 453 yards and three touchdowns. Keep in mind, earlier in the season he also threw for 467 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico. I absolutely love the versatility of this Spartans squad as they're able to win a slugfest or a shootout. Ball State blindsided conference front-runner Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, although that victory had a lot to do with the Bulls losing do-it-all RB Jaret Patterson to injury in that contest. Outside of Buffalo, I didn't find the MAC overly impressive this season. Ball State does a lot of things ok but is by no means an elite offensive or defensive squad. Look for Cardinals QB Drew Plitt to be under duress all afternoon long and for the Spartans to force a key turnover or two that ultimately puts this game away. Take San Jose State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Wednesday.

I'm not sure how excited either of these teams are about playing in the Mayo Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. With that being said, I'm expecting a battle in the trenches of sorts as the Badgers line up against the Demon Deacons. Wisconsin of course owns one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 12th in points per play allowed. The Badgers check in 16th in yards per rush allowed and 12th in yards per pass attempt given up. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman suffered some regression this season, throwing more than two touchdown passes in a game just once - that performance coming in a wild 59-53 loss to North Carolina. He does do a nice job of taking care of the football, having thrown just one interception this season. I see this game playing out with the Demon Deacons finding some success moving the football against a tough Badgers defense but not finishing many drives with 7's on the board. Likewise, the Badgers should be able to find some running room against a weak Demon Deacons run defense but they certainly didn't show the ability during the regular season to score with any consistency and are particularly limited in their passing offense with QB Graham Mertz asked to be little more than a game manager, having completed more than 20 passes in a game only once. Take the under (10*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Miami at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday.

This game is being pegged as a potential offensive shootout. I'm not so sure that's how it will play out on the field, however. Oklahoma State was supposed to contend for a Big 12 Championship this season but a nagging ankle injury to RB Chuba Hubbard helped derail its hopes, and now Hubbard has opted-out of the Cheez-It Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the Cowboys offensive cupboard is by no means bare without Hubbard, I expect them to have their work cut out for them here. That's mainly because QB Spencer Sanders has failed to impress in his sophomore campaign. He threw more than a single touchdown pass just twice in eight games during the regular season and threw at least one interception in six of those contests. He's likely to be under duress for much of this game with Miami ranking a respectable 39th in the nation in sack percentage with that ranking rising to ninth over its last three games. Yes, the Canes have struggled against the run, which is the Cowboys strength, but here I'm not sure they'll respect Sanders enough to stray from stacking the box and forcing him to beat them through the air. On the flip side, the Miami offense showed flashes of brilliance with transfer QB D'Eriq King this season, but now face an underrated Oklahoma State defense that ranks ninth in the country in sack percentage and 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Note that Miami RB Cam'Ron Harris ran for exactly 134 yards in each of his first two games this season but never reached those heights again, topping out at 96 rush yards over his last eight contests while being held to 63 rush yards or less in seven of those. It doesn't take many stalled drives to stay 'under' a lofty total such as this one. Both offenses are capable of moving the football but long, clock-churning drives can work in our favor in this case. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'over' in the Bills rout of the Broncos last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they head to New England to face the rival Patriots on Monday night. Buffalo's defense has stiffened up considerably down the stretch and should have little trouble containing a Pats offense that has struggled all season, but particularly of late. The Bills don't give up many big plays downfield and actually check in as a top-10 run defense over their last three contests which should severely limit New England's ability to move the football into scoring range. On paper, the Bills should have their way with the Pats defense but New England remains a well-coached, prideful football team and I can't see it simply rolling over in this late season division game, especially after dropping a tough 24-21 decision in Buffalo earlier this season. I certainly expect the Pats to do a better job containing the Bills offense than Denver did last week, or San Francisco did the last time Buffalo appeared on Monday Night Football three weeks ago. Take the under (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

We've seen this total drop and that likely has something to do with the forecast calling for possible snow and cold conditions at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. We're not likely going to see the type of weather that has a real impact on scoring, however, and I certainly feel that this game has shootout potential in the second-last Sunday Nighter of the regular season. We rode the Titans offense to victory in last week's blowout win over the Lions but the matchup is obviously much tougher here as they travel to face the Packers. With that being said, I like Tennessee's chances of finding continued offensive success with QB Ryan Tannehill having settled into a groove with standout WR duo A.J. Brown and Corey Davis and RB Derrick Henry absolutely running wild down the stretch. Henry draws a favorable matchup here against a Packers defense that can't stop the run. On the flip side, the Packers offense is relatively healthy and figures to feast on a bottom of the barrel Titans defense that has only avoided embarrassment thanks to facing the lowly Jaguars and Lions over the last two weeks. Tennessee doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks at all, which spells likely doom against MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers. Note that only three teams have allowed more yardage to wide receivers than the Titans this season, setting this up as a monster spot for WR Davante Adams and company. Take the over (10*).

NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really liked the way the 'over' set up in the Eagles narrow loss to the Cardinals week but didn't end up playing it due to the inconsistent nature of the two offenses. It was obviously the wrong decision but that high-scoring outcome does seem to be leading plenty of bettors to the window to play the 'over' in this one. Most are very high on Eagles rookie QB Jalen Hurts' after he ran wild against the Saints and then threw for 300+ yards against the Cardinals last week. I'm not convinced we're going to see another big performance from Hurts in the boxscore on Sunday, however - even if this is a mouth-watering matchup against the lowly Cowboys. Keep in mind, while Hurts did throw for 338 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona, he also took six sacks, fumbled the ball three times and completed just 24-of-44 passes. In other words, Hurts is no sure thing to explode against an admittedly beatable Cowboys defense on Sunday. With each passing week opponents have a little more tape on Hurts and it's not as if he has an elite supporting cast. Dallas' offense remains in shambles, although you wouldn't know it by last week's wild 41-33 win over the 49ers. That high-scoring result serves us well here as it keeps this total higher than it probably should be noting these two teams combined for 32 points the last time they faced each other. While the Eagles are dealing with a cluster of injuries in their secondary, I'm not sure that QB Andy Dalton and the Dallas offense is capable of taking advantage. Philadelphia still has a vaunted pass rush, ranking second in the NFL in sack percentage this season. The Cowboys offense ranks 23rd in sacks allowed per game. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It seems that most bettors abandoned the Ravens weeks ago but those who have stuck around have been handsomely rewarded as they've reeled off three straight wins and covers over the last three weeks. Here, they appear primed to deliver another lopsided victory, this time at the expense of the up and down Giants. Baltimore endured plenty of adversity due to Covid earlier this season but now find themselves in terrific shape with most of their key cogs on both sides of the football rested and (relatively) healthy. The same can't be said for the Giants, who have had numerous players in and out of the lineup, including QB Daniel Jones who remains less than 100% healthy entering this contest. That stunning upset win in Seattle back on December 6th (we won with New York in that game) may end up being the high point in an otherwise disappointing campaign. We're being asked to lay plenty of points in this contest, but I believe the line could be even higher. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over San Francisco at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This sets up as an ideal matchup for the surging Cardinals, who will be aiming for their third straight victory on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers are likely to be in tough with third-string QB C.J. Beathard taking over under center. He's had plenty of chances as an NFL quarterback and has generally failed miserably. There's little reason to expect a great deal of improvement here with the 49ers offense quite simply broken in what has amounted to a lost season due to injuries and otherwise. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray lit up the 49ers back in Week 1 and projects to do the same here in Week 16 with the Niners missing both Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward, two key cogs in their secondary. We haven't backed the Cards often this season but this is an ideal spot laying a very reasonable number at home against a Niners squad that's simply playing out the string. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Saturday.

This is an absolute smash spot for the Bucs offense coming off an encouraging come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Detroit is a mess defensively with a number of key cogs missing, including their top two cornerbacks. The Bucs should be able to take their pick here as to whether they want to throw all over the Lions beatable pass defense or run wild against their non-existent run defense. While I've been high on the Bucs defense for much of the season, I do think Detroit can do some damage in this game with enough skill position players performing well (most notably WR Marvin Jones, TE T.J. Hockenson and RB D'Andre Swift) to instill confidence in this possible letdown game for Tampa Bay. QB Matt Stafford is still banged-up nursing multiple injuries but there's little reason to expect him to do anything but bomb away in this 'nothing to lose' matchup. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

This game may project as a shootout on paper as both the Vikings and Saints are known for their prolific offenses, however, I'm expecting it to play out lower-scoring than most expect. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings last game, a wild home loss to the Bears last Sunday. Of course, we were dealing with a total in the mid-40's in that game, and it actually set up more favorably for the Vikings offense. Here, Minnesota's run-first mentality may actually plague it with RB Dalvin Cook dealing with numerous injuries and playing on a short week. Meanwhile, QB Kirk Cousins has been a true 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' and figures to struggle against the Saints vaunted pass rush. New Orleans struggled to get to Chiefs mobile QB Pat Mahomes last Sunday but should tee off on a statue-esque Cousins here. While the Vikings have struggled defensively for the most part this season, we have seen signs of life from them against the pass in recent weeks. The Saints are in a bit of a state of flux right now with Drew Brees back under center and dealing with the absence of WR Michael Thomas. RB Alvin Kamara will get his, but that may only lead to long, clock-churning offensive drives rather than consistent 7's on the board. Take the under (10*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Houston at 3:30 pm et on Thursday.

This one is being pegged as a potential shootout between the Rainbow Warriors and Cougars - after all, both programs are known for their high-octane offenses and what else would we want to see on Christmas Eve other than a wild, high-scoring affair? With that being said, I believe this lofty total will prove too high. Hawaii checks in ranked 88th in the nation in points per play, struggling against any defense with a pulse this season. While Houston could be undermanned due to ineligibility and opt-outs, it still possesses a defense that ranks an impressive eighth in the country in sack percentage. Meanwhile, the Warriors offense ranked a miserable 92nd in the nation in QB sacked percentage this season. It's certainly worth noting that the Cougars are expected to miss arguably their best offensive player in WR Marquez Stevenson, who has apparently elected to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the cupboard is by no means bare for the Cougars on offense, QB Clayton Tune can't be asked to do it all. Hawaii actually finished the season ranked a respectable 39th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. I suspect we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game, ultimately keeping it 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Many will make the case that Florida Atlantic doesn't belong in a Bowl game at all after an embarrassing 45-31 loss to Southern Miss in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Owls were essentially playing for nothing in that game with only a (very) outside chance at reaching the C-USA Championship Game. FAU had started the season 5-1 before dropping its final two contests. Still, the Owls check in ranked an impressive 7th in the nation in points allowed per play and I believe they can do enough offensively to shorten this game and let their defense take care of the rest. Memphis didn't have a banner year by its own program's standards, losing three games to finish 3rd in the AAC. QB Brady White topped out at two touchdown passes in his last four games and took a ton of sacks and threw a bunch of interceptions over the course of the season. Meanwhile, the Tigers ground attack wasn't all that dynamic at all, ranking 97th in the country in yards per rush. Look for the Owls to do what they can to muck this one up and ultimately stay inside the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Memphis hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing here in 2020, ranking 59th in the country in offensive touchdowns per game and 72nd in yards per play. Here, the Tigers will face a Florida Atlantic squad that checks in an impressive seventh in the nation in points per play allowed. There's little reason to expect a real offensive breakthrough from the Owls offense in this one. Their calling card has been controlling the football (and the clock) and leaving it up to their defense to take care of the rest. The Owls check in 109th and 110th respectively in points allowed per play and offensive touchdowns per game. On the flip side, only two teams have allowed fewer offensive touchdowns per game this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

Bettors are generally quick to play the 'over' in most Bowl games and the New Orleans Bowl on the fast track at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome has been no exception over the years. With that being said, this has obviously been a unique season and here we have two teams that labored offensively through much of the campaign and are dealing with question marks all over the field. One thing we do know is that Georgia Southern will focus on running the football and eating clock - likely with its third-string quarterback. I'm not convinced many of the Eagles offensive drives will turn into 7's on the board, however, and Louisiana Tech's offense simply doesn't match up well with a Georgia Southern defense that ranks 33rd in the country in points allowed per play. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Tulane at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Nevada was red hot prior to its stunning loss at Hawaii on November 29th. The Wolf Pack had won five straight games to open the season including a huge victory over San Diego State in a nationally-televised game a week earlier. From there, Nevada stumbled, dropping two of its final three games overall, clearing its bandwagon in the process. So perhaps it's not all that surprising that the Wolf Pack have been installed as short underdogs in this Bowl matchup with Tulane. I still feel Nevada has plenty of upside and will be up for this game on the familiar blue turf in Boise. Tulane had an up and down season, ultimately going 6-5 overall. The Green Wave didn't do anything particularly well, although they did rank a respectable 38th in the nation in points allowed per play. The problem is, Nevada finished 10 spots ahead of them in that category. While the Green Wave did put up better offensive numbers, they also faced a schedule littered with sieve-like defenses in the AAC. Look for Nevada to finish its 2020 campaign strong. Take Nevada (10*).

AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I can understand bettors being hesitant to back the Steelers laying all of those points off back-to-back subpar performances against Washington and Buffalo. However, I expect to see Pittsburgh win this game in a walk as it catches a favorable 'get right' matchup against the lowly Bengals on Monday Night Football. A real key here should be the Bengals absolute inability to get after opposing quarterbacks. Particularly at this stage of his career, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when afforded time to operate in the backfield, and he should face very little pressure against the Bengals, giving him ample time to find his dynamic wide receiving corps downfield. I'm not convinced we'll see Pittsburgh gain a whole lot of headway on the ground in this one, but that's just fine as it will force it to take to the air where it should feast on a weak Cincinnati secondary that has been torched by big plays time and time again this season. This is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals injury-ravaged offense. They'll turn to QB Ryan Finley here. If you can believe it, he represents a step down from Brandon Allen, who was unable to accomplish anything positive since standout rookie Joe Burrow went down to injury. Finley will be charged with the unenviable task of operating behind an offensive line that has been among the worst in the league at protecting the quarterback. Only one team has allowed more sacks this season. Cincinnati will simply be looking to keep this one respectable but I think it will be hard-pressed to stay inside the number. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Appalachian State at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

Appalachian State had high hopes entering this season but I don't think playing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl was near the top of its priority list. Meanwhile, North Texas is playing with 'house money' reaching a Bowl game despite a 4-5 overall record. I look for the Mean Green Eagles to put up a fight on Monday afternoon. I do think North Texas has a path to victory in this game with a potent offense and a defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks, ranking 23rd in the nation in sack percentage this season. By contrast, Appalachian State's vaunted defense ranked just 70th in that category. Offensively, UNT is explosive, ranking 28th in the country in yards per pass attempt and 21st in yards per rush. I will admit that the Eagles faced a weaker schedule than Appalachian State but I don't believe there's a great intimidation factor at play here. In a game where both teams have reason to simply go through the motions rather than treat this as a true Bowl experience, I'll grab the generous helping of points. Take North Texas (10*).

NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

A lot of bettors jumped off the Titans bandwagon following their ugly home loss to the Browns two weeks ago but not us as we cashed Tennessee in last week's rout of the Jaguars. At the same time, we also faded the Lions but unfortunately just missed cashing that ticket thanks to a back-door Lions cover against Green Bay. Here, I won't hesitate to fade Detroit again as it hits the road for a poor matchup against a playoff-bound Titans squad. Tennessee enjoyed a true 'get right' performance in Jacksonville last Sunday and should enter this game brimming with confidence. With the Lions doing nothing to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, Titans monster RB Derrick Henry should absolutely feast in this game. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm again in last Sunday's victory and should enjoy another solid day against an injury-ravaged Lions secondary. Ordinarily I would be fairly high on Lions veteran backup QB Chase Daniel (who is expected to start in place of an injured Matt Stafford) but right now Detroit's offense is simply too banged-up with WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined and a potential gaping hole on the offensive line with C Frank Ragnow having suffered a brutal throat injury last week. Take Tennessee (10*).

AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It's not easy to back the Patriots these days but I do believe they warrant support in Sunday's trip to Miami to face the Dolphins. New England's offense is obviously a shell of its former self but the good news here is that you can run on Miami. I'm confident we'll see the Pats stay run-heavy with QB Cam Newton and their stable of running backs in this one and do all they can to stay away from the Dolphins stout secondary. This is precisely the type of game where New England should be able to impose its will not only with its ground game but also with its still-underrated defense. Miami is expected to be without a couple of key cogs offensively with TE Mike Gesicki and WR Jakeem Grant banged-up and questionable to play. Even if they can go it remains to be seen whether they'll be on a snap count or overly effective. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week but completed just 28-of-48 passes and threw an interception and was sacked four times. He benefited from game flow in the fourth quarter of that contest as the Fins were behind by virtually three touchdowns and the Chiefs defense softened considerably. Few will have much interest in backing the Pats off last week's embarrassing nationally-televised blowout loss to the Rams. We'll go the contrarian route here. Take New England (10*).

NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can understand the relatively low posted total here as we saw just 32 points scored the last time these two teams met back on November 16th in Chicago. However, the domed environment in Minnesota along with the steady improvement of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky under center (I can't believe I'm saying that) should lead to a much higher-scoring affair here. Only four teams have allowed more touchdown passes than the Vikings this season and that's had a lot to do with the fact that they've had virtually no success getting after opposing quarterbacks. Trubisky and WR Allen Robinson in particular should have a field day on Sunday afternoon. Interestingly enough, a key to this play could be the ability of the Bears defense to minimize Vikings RB Dalvin Cook's effectiveness. That should force QB Kirk Cousins to take to the air more often than usual, which would be a good thing for us with an 'over' ticket in hand as the Bears are vulnerable against the pass and Cousins has a true dynamic duo at WR in Adam Thielen and standout rookie Justin Jefferson. This has the potential to turn into a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over Boise State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

In what has been a truly unique 2020 college football season one thing has remained the same and that's Boise State contending for a Mountain West Conference Championship. With that being said, I don't consider the Broncos to be the same juggernaut they've been in years' past. I'm not sure we can consider any of their victories this season truly impressive as they faced a rather weak conference schedule. In their lone 'step up' game they got blown out 51-17 at the hands of BYU. Meanwhile, San Jose State did nothing but impress. The Spartans exceeded most expectations by going a perfect 6-0, including impressive wins over San Diego State and Nevada. I certainly expect the Spartans to be a 'tough out' in this contest on Saturday. Only eight teams in the country have allowed fewer points per play than the Spartans this season. Boise State checks in 43rd in that category. There's no question the Broncos do have the more explosive offense but what else is new. I will point out that QB Hank Bachmeier hasn't been the same 'field general' we've become accustomed to seeing running the Broncos offense. He threw exactly one touchdown in three of his four games this season while throwing a pair of interceptions in his last two contests and was sacked eight times overall. The Spartans have the type of defense that can minimize the effectiveness of this Boise State offense, noting they rank 20th in the country in yards per rush allowed and 20th in sack percentage. Take San Jose State (10*).

AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Denver at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the Bills head to Denver to face the Broncos on Saturday. The Buffalo offense is certainly catching the Denver defense as the right time with the Broncos missing numerous key cogs on that side of the football. Vic Fangio is a terrific defensive coach but he can only do so much with the limited personnel he has on hand. Missing the majority of its starting secondary, the Broncos are likely to get lit up by a red hot Josh Allen. Note that no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos this season and we know Allen can be just as much of a threat with his legs as he is with his arm. Denver showed plenty of life offensively in last week's road win over the Panthers - scoring 32 points in the process. With the Broncos offensive line getting back to full strength, QB Drew Lock could be in for another solid day statistically on Saturday. Lock has obviously become accustomed to playing from behind, which is likely to be the case again here. Look for the Broncos to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington State at 1:30 pm et on Saturday.

A potential Bowl spot is on the line in this game between Washington State and Utah on Saturday afternoon. That is if either team is even interested in a Bowl game. Nevertheless, I look for the Utes to continue their upward trend with another strong performance in their home finale in this unique 2020 season. There's no question the Utes have been getting stronger with each passing game. In their lone previous home tilt they fell in blowout fashion against USC but that was after months of cancellations and no previous game action. We saw Utah put it all together in a 38-21 road win over a good Colorado squad last week and I look for it to build off that performance here. We were actually on Washington State last week before its game against Cal got canceled due to Covid issues. That leaves the Cougars in a tough spot here trying to once again get amped up for a game that really doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things (again, Bowl eligibility doesn't mean quite as much this season with many teams opting out). Cougars QB Jayden De Laura has shown some flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked five times and tossed three interceptions in three games. RB Max Borghi might see game action for the first time this season after a banner 2019 campaign but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against a very stout Utes run defense. Note that Utah checks into this game ranked 55th in the nation in points allowed per play. Take Utah (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Iowa State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This isn't the first time we've played the 'under' in the Big 12 Championship Game. It seems that on an annual basis most bettors are comfortable backing the 'over' in this contest played on the fast track at AT&T Stadium. Note that only one of the last five Big 12 title games have totaled more than 58 points. Of course, Oklahoma is a perennial Big 12 title contender having appeared in this game in seven of the last eight years. I consider this year's Sooners squad to be a little different. I certainly don't put QB Spencer Rattler in the same category as the previous three players to QB the Sooners in this game, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Note that Rattler has thrown for more than two touchdowns just once in his last five games. He topped out at 332 passing yards in those games, topping 300 yards only twice. Also note that he's been sacked seven times in the last two contests. Obviously the Sooners still boast a potent offense but they're running into a tough opponent in Iowa State here. The Cyclones have been a largely underrated commodity for much of this season and check in having allowed just 26 points over their last three games combined. Iowa State checks in 29th in the nation in points allowed per play. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has also been stout defensively, ranking 37th in the country in points allowed per play. While the Cyclones have had some breakout performances offensively, they're not what I would consider a juggernaut in that regard. QB Brock Purdy hasn't attempted more than 36 passes in a game since back on October 10th against Texas Tech. When these two teams met back on October 24th we saw a wild 37-30 game won by Iowa State. That game was actually fairly defensive until a late fourth quarter scoring flurry that saw three touchdowns in the game's final eight minutes. Take the under (10*).

CFB Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday.

This is certainly a low total by today's college football standards but much like our play on the 'under' in last Saturday's Wisconsin-Iowa matchup, I believe it is warranted. UAB shook off the rust after not playing for over a month due to Covid protocols, holding on for a 21-16 win but non-cover against Rice last week. The Blazers are expected to get some reinforcements on both sides of the ball this week with their entire team testing negative for Covid earlier this week. That means they'll have their tremendous stable of running backs back on the field. While that may help them extend their offensive drives in this game, it's certainly worth noting that Marshall has been extremely stingy against opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Thundering Herd rank tied for top spot in the nation in rush yards allowed per attempt (along with Georgia) at a measly 2.3. Only Cincinnati has allowed fewer points per play than Marshall this season. Of course, UAB can hold its own in that department as well with a loaded, experienced defense that ranks 21st in the nation in points per play allowed. The Blazers check in an impressive 16th in the country in yards allowed per game. I don't have a great deal of confidence in either starting quarterback in this matchup to be honest. I really think that both teams will enter this game with a focus on running the football, controlling the clock and letting their defenses take care of the rest. Expect Tyler Johnston and Grant Wells to assume dreaded 'game manager' roles with a Conference Championship on the line. There will be a few big plays, but I'm confident the game ultimately slides 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Las Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I'll grab the points with the Chargers on Thursday night as they head to Las Vegas looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They're catching the Raiders at the right time as Las Vegas has dropped three of its last four games, with its lone victory over that stretch coming by way of a last second hail mary against the still-winless Jets. With Rod Marinelli taking over the defensive reins there's hope that the Raiders can turn things around on that side of the football but playing on a short week, with a number of key cogs banged-up it's highly unlikely we'll see much improvement. Meanwhile, on offense the Raiders continue to trudge along with RB Josh Jacobs less than 100% healthy and now without deep threat WR Henry Ruggs as he was placed on the Covid list. While Ruggs hasn't been a true gamebreaker this season, he does have the ability to stretch out opposing defenses and will be one less downfield threat for the Chargers defense to worry about on Thursday night. Los Angeles is mired in another disappointing season under seemingly clueless head coach Anthony Lynn. With that being said, the Chargers are off a 20-17 win over the Falcons last Sunday with their defense showing signs of turning the corner with Joey Bosa back on the field in recent weeks. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Chargers offense, especially now that RB Austin Ekeler is back. He led the team in rushing and receiving in last week's victory and should be the focal point of the offense again here. This is another showcase game for rookie QB Justin Herbert and I certainly feel he has more upside than Raiders QB Derek Carr at this point. Take Los Angeles (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I believe this line will prove far too short as the Ravens look to beat up on the division rival Browns once again on Monday night. Baltimore enjoyed a perfect 'get right' matchup against the Cowboys last Tuesday night, cruising to a lopsided victory. That game gave all of those Ravens that missed time due to Covid protocols to shake off the rust and get back into game action leading into this key showdown with the Browns. Baltimore is virtually back at full strength now with TE Mark Andrews a key piece returning to the offense on Monday night in Cleveland. I look for the Ravens passing game in particular to feast on a Browns pass defense that will once again be without its anchor CB Denzel Ward. You certainly can't sleep on Cleveland these days as the Browns have undoubtedly exceeded expectations and played excellent football this season. But the fact remains they've faced a rather soft schedule and while last week's victory in Tennessee was impressive, QB Baker Mayfield is still best-suited as a game manager but I'm not sure he'll be afforded that opportunity here should the Browns fall behind (as I expect). The Ravens have been tough on opposing running backs and get healthier on the defensive side of the football this week. Look for them to do a better job than most at containing the dynamic RB duo of Hunt and Chubb and take the Browns out of their preferred gameplan. This is a showcase game for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson after failing to perform well in a number of spotlight games this season. I look for him to come up with one of his best efforts of the season. Take Baltimore (10*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a layup for the Packers, even with the Lions riding high off last week's upset win over the Bears in Chicago. Green Bay cruised to a win over the Eagles last Sunday and now hit the road for a very friendly division matchup in the Motor City. Detroit's defense is suddenly injury-ravaged, sure to miss CB Desmond Trufant in this game. We've yet to see the Lions shut down any opposing ground attacks this season, which really opens the door for a monster performance from the Packers multi-dimensional offensive attack. On the flip side, the Packers are one team that Lions QB Matt Stafford has never really figured out. With WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined, there's little reason to believe Stafford can suddenly come to life against the Packers here. While Green Bay has allowed opposing running backs to gain plenty of ground, that will likely only serve to bait Detroit into a run-first offensive gameplan here, which could lead to some long drives, but few that put 7's on the board. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

While most see this as a clear continuation of the Saints red hot run, I see it as a letdown spot coming off last week's divisional road win over the Falcons in Atlanta. In fact, this will be New Orelans' third straight road game in as many weeks - setting this up as a sneaky-tough spot against what is sure to be a highly-motivated Eagles squad coming off last week's 'close but no cigar' loss and no-cover against the Packers. Philadelphia will start Jalen Hurts at quarterback in what could only be considered a spark-inducing move at this point of the season. While Hurts draws a very tough matchup here, I do expect the Eagles to rally around him the rest of the season (assuming he holds onto the starting job). Saints QB Taysom Hill suddenly has a bit of pressure on him with Drew Brees' imminent return. While I won't go so far as to say the Eagles win this game outright, I do look for them to stay inside the number. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We won by fading the Seahawks in their upset loss to the Giants last week (we also cashed the 'under' in that game) but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Seattle laying all of those points on Sunday afternoon against the hapless Jets. New York is in full letdown mode here after inexplicably blowing a prime opportunity to win perhaps its only game of the season last Sunday against Las Vegas. Now the Jets head to the west coast without a number of key cogs on offense - and don't figure to be gift-wrapped this contest the way they were by the Raiders last week. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson finally catches a break after facing a murderer's row of defenses in recent weeks. Note that the Jets rank in the league's bottom-five in quarterback hit-rate and don't figure to put Wilson under much duress on Sunday afternoon. It's almost unthinkable to lay this many points in an NFL games these days but in this particular spot, I'm confident the Seahawks can run away and hide against a Jets squad that is quite simply playing out the string. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not sure where the points will come from in this bottom of the barrel matchup between the Cowboys and Bengals. Dallas' offense is obviously a shell of its former self. While it does draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Bengals defense here, I'm not convinced that QB Andy Dalton is capable of taking advantage with an injury-ravaged offensive line trying to keep him clean. It is worth noting that while the Bengals defense has struggled as a whole, that unit has actually held its own against opposing wide receivers - obviously a strength of the Cowboys offense. Cincinnati has gotten absolutely nothing done since Brandon Allen took over the starting quarterback job. Regardless who is under center for this game, I don't expect a breakout performance. The Bengals will be without a key cog on the offensive line in this one in LT Jonah Williams, opening the door for a solid performance from the Cowboys defense. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This total has settled considerably higher than I expected given the state of both teams. We won with the Giants and the 'under' in their upset win in Seattle last week. While there's a chance we see a big letdown here and their defense struggles, I believe we're looking at a large enough sample size now where their 'D' has excelled. Keep in mind, the Arizona offense has been struggling and this doesn't look like an ideal turnaround spot traveling across the country for an early start game in New Jersey. I do think the Cards can have some success in their short passing game, but that should only serve to create some long, clock-churning drives that may or may not end with 7's on the board. The Giants know who they are at this point. A run-first offense that relies on controlling the football and allowing its defense to take care of most of the heavy lifting. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game has real shootout potential with the Titans looking to bounce back against what most believe is a tanking Jags squad. There's little reason to expect anything other than an onslaught from the Titans offense here coming off an uncharacteristic mistake-prone performance against a good Browns defense last Sunday. We did see the Tennessee offense come to life in the second half of that contest (once it was completely out of hand). I do think we'll see some carry-over here, with RB Derrick Henry likely to run wild and WR A.J. Brown in line for a massive bounce-back against a hapless Jags secondary. Offensively, Jacksonville has somewhat shockingly held its own since journeyman QB Mike Glennon took over under center. Few pass defenses have been as bad as the Titans' in recent weeks and Glennon is poised to take advantage with a relatively healthy receiving corps. Add in dynamic RB James Robinson and I expect the Jags to put up some points in this matchup. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Backing the Titans in a prime bounce-back spot off last week's beatdown at home against the Browns is not an overly difficult decision. Two of Tennessee's best offensive pieces are in line for big round performances - namely RB Derrick Henry and WR A.J. Brown - off last week's no-show (game script of course had something to do with Henry's awful day). Note that opponents are rushing for north of 150 yards per game against Jacksonville this season. While I do think the Jags can score some points in this game, I'm not convinced they can keep up with the Titans for four quarters, nor do I believe they'll be able to come up with enough big plays on defense late to get the Tennessee offense off the field. This is a key spot for Tennessee to turn the tide and given its success against the Jags over the years, there's little reason to expect its run of dominance to come to an end. Take Tennessee (10*).