My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While Kansas City is aiming for a historic third consecutive Super Bowl title, there's a strong case to be made that the Eagles are being undervalued in this matchup. Despite some early season struggles, Philadelphia has been among the league’s best teams all year and possesses one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. The extra week of preparation should benefit the Eagles significantly, allowing their offensive line to get back to full strength and giving Jalen Hurts additional time to recover. When at their best, the Eagles have shown the ability to control games with their balanced attack, and I expect them to lean heavily on their ground game and physicality in an effort to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense off the field.

Kansas City has certainly hit its stride down the stretch, covering the spread in four consecutive games, but it has been a different story over the course of the full season. The Chiefs finished just 8-10-1 ATS, often struggling to put teams away despite their success in the win column. Philadelphia, meanwhile, enters with a 13-7 ATS record and will be eager to embrace the underdog role in this spot. The Eagles’ defensive front has the capability to disrupt Mahomes and force him off his spot, something few teams have successfully done in recent weeks. If the Eagles can generate pressure and avoid allowing Mahomes to extend plays, they should have a legitimate chance to win this game outright.

While Kansas City holds an edge in terms of experience and coaching, I don’t see a significant talent gap on the field. Philadelphia’s offensive and defensive lines should give them an advantage in the trenches, and if they can dictate the pace of play, they’ll be in a strong position to win this game outright. With the potential for a close contest, I’ll grab the points with the Eagles and also suggest a sprinkle on Saquon Barkley to win the game MVP.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Eagles 24, Chiefs 21.

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Kansas City is on the brink of making history, aiming for a record-setting third straight Super Bowl title, and this matchup with Buffalo feels like another stepping stone. While public sentiment may lean toward rooting against the Chiefs, that only serves to fuel Kansas City's fire as it prepares to face its playoff rival once again. The Chiefs hold a psychological edge, having won three consecutive postseason meetings against the Bills, proving they know how to rise to the occasion when it matters most.

Kansas City enters this contest following consecutive ATS defeats (based on the closing number of -9.5 against Houston last week) but had delivered three straight ATS wins prior to that, showing it’s capable of covering when the stakes are high. Conversely, Buffalo has won and covered its first two playoff games but has yet to show consistency from a betting perspective, with its longest ATS streak this season topping out at three games.

Buffalo's defense, particularly its secondary, might have been a key factor in this matchup, but injuries have created significant concerns. With Benford, Johnson, Rapp, and Milano all dealing with ailments, the Bills are vulnerable against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense.

Expect the Chiefs to exploit Buffalo's defensive weaknesses and capitalize on their playoff experience to punch their ticket to another Super Bowl.

Take Kansas City.

AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Kansas City at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday.

This matchup has all the ingredients of a high-scoring affair, with both offenses more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard. In their lone regular season meeting, these teams combined for 51 points, and history suggests both quarterbacks excel in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have a combined 35 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions in eight prior meetings, proving they thrive under the spotlight.

Kansas City enters this contest in excellent health, and with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I expect its offense to hit full stride. Meanwhile, Buffalo, while working to develop a more balanced attack, won't hesitate to put the game in Josh Allen's hands if it falls behind, relying on his dynamic playmaking ability to keep pace with the Chiefs.

This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, yet the total hasn't been significantly adjusted from their regular-season meeting. Additionally, we're taking a contrarian angle with the Chiefs having played to three straight 'under' results, just shy of their season-long streak. This spot sets up for a breakout offensive showing from both sides.

Take the 'over.'

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles and Commanders split their two regular-season meetings, but it’s important to note that Washington needed a massive effort, including 36 points and an early exit by Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, to secure its win. This NFC Championship matchup looks far less favorable for Washington, which enters on an improbable seven-game winning streak that included consecutive upset victories on the road against the Buccaneers and Lions.

While the Eagles have faced criticism for a relatively weak schedule, Washington has faced an even lighter slate of opponents by most metrics. The Commanders’ Cinderella run has been impressive, but this spot may prove too tough to overcome, particularly against an Eagles squad that is 9-1 straight-up at home this season, with an average winning margin of 9.5 points per game.

Philadelphia, with home-field advantage and momentum on its side, is poised to roll on Sunday and secure its Super Bowl berth.

Take Philadelphia.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Notre Dame at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

Ohio State enters this matchup in peak form, delivering three dominant performances against Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas following their surprising loss to Michigan on November 30th. The Buckeyes have shown they can rise to the occasion against elite competition, and their schedule ranks among the toughest in the nation, further justifying their status as favorites here.

Notre Dame has enjoyed an outstanding season, rattling off 13 straight victories since a shocking loss to Northern Illinois back in early September. Their most recent triumph was an upset win over Penn State in the CFP semi-finals. The Irish have also been a bettors' favorite, going 9-0-1 ATS over their last 10 games. However, this marks a significant step up in competition against a deeper and more talented Buckeyes squad.

With Ohio State firing on all cylinders and boasting a talent edge on both sides of the ball, I expect them to put an end to Notre Dame's ATS streak and claim a convincing victory.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 17.

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

This is a tough spot for the Rams, who must travel cross-country on a short week after their Monday night 'upset' victory over the Vikings. The physical and emotional toll of that game, combined with the travel, puts Los Angeles at a disadvantage against a well-rested and focused Eagles squad.

Philadelphia has already proven its superiority over the Rams with a decisive road victory earlier in the season. Now, the Eagles return home, where they’ve been a dominant force this season, buoyed by their relentless defense and potent ground game. The forecasted cold, windy, and snowy conditions are likely to favor the Eagles' style of play, which emphasizes controlling the line of scrimmage and pounding the football.

Expect Philadelphia to stick to its strengths and wear down the Rams, capitalizing on their travel fatigue and the challenging weather conditions to secure a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Los Angeles 16.

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Washington at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

The Lions are in an excellent position as they host a Washington team riding high after a three-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread, capped by an impressive upset win over Tampa Bay on the road last Sunday night. While the Commanders have been impressive, Detroit offers a significant challenge, especially at home, where the Lions have consistently excelled.

Detroit enters this contest well-rested after being idle last weekend, also riding its own three-game SU and ATS winning streak. At 15-2 straight-up and 12-5 against the spread this season, the Lions have proven their mettle against a tougher schedule compared to Washington. Meanwhile, the Commanders have been less reliable on the road, posting just a 4-5 ATS mark away from home.

The Lions’ well-rounded offense and opportunistic defense should be enough to control this matchup and put an end to Washington’s recent run of success. Look for Detroit to take care of business in convincing fashion.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Detroit 34, Washington 20.

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Chiefs find themselves in a prime position coming off two consecutive "off weeks" after resting their starters in Week 18 and earning a bye through the Wild Card round. The extra rest and preparation time should pay dividends as they take on a Texans team riding high following consecutive upset victories, including a decisive win over the Chargers last weekend. However, this matchup presents a much tougher challenge for Houston.

Kansas City already proved its superiority over the Texans earlier this season, winning a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggested. While the Chiefs took a 38-0 loss to Denver in Week 18, it’s worth noting that none of their key players were on the field for that game. Now, the Chiefs are as healthy and prepared as they’ve been all season.

In contrast, the Texans are dealing with a series of injuries that could significantly hamper their chances in this spot. Facing an efficient, high-powered Kansas City offense at Arrowhead Stadium is a daunting task, particularly for a Houston team that may be due for a letdown after an emotional playoff victory.

Take Kansas City. Projected score: Kansas City 34, Houston 17.

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers will be looking to avenge their heart-breaking season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil as they clash once again, this time in a playoff setting. Green Bay may not carry a lot of momentum into this game after finishing the regular season with back-to-back losses both straight up and against the spread. However, this is a battle-tested team capable of rising to the occasion.

Philadelphia enters this contest with a stellar 14-3 record and closed the regular season with consecutive victories both SU and ATS. While that resume looks impressive, it's worth noting the Eagles benefited from one of the league’s weakest schedules.

Green Bay has the tools to keep this game competitive, and I expect a motivated effort from the Packers as they seek redemption. The playoff stakes, combined with their familiarity with the Eagles, should help them hang tough, with this one likely coming down to the wire.

Take Green Bay. Projected score: Philadelphia 23, Green Bay 21.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.

We'll take the points with the Steelers as they look to exact revenge against their AFC North rival, Baltimore, in this high-stakes playoff matchup. Pittsburgh endured a humiliating loss when these teams last met three weeks ago, but that result should serve as added motivation for Mike Tomlin's squad on Saturday night.

While the Steelers enter this game on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS), they've consistently shown resilience in divisional matchups, often finding ways to keep games close. Pittsburgh's defense remains its strongest asset and is more than capable of creating turnovers and limiting Baltimore's high-powered attack. Offensively, the Steelers have struggled, but their balanced approach could benefit from facing a Ravens defense that has occasionally been vulnerable against physical, grind-it-out teams.

Baltimore has been red-hot, winning and covering in four straight games by wide margins, thanks to an offense that has topped 30 points in each of those contests. However, the loss of standout wide receiver Zay Flowers is a significant blow, as his ability to stretch the field has been instrumental in opening up the Ravens' passing game. Without Flowers, Pittsburgh's defense will have a clearer path to disrupting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense.

In a rivalry as fierce as this one, laying a large number of points is always a risk. The Steelers are more than capable of keeping this game competitive with their physicality and familiarity with Baltimore's tendencies. Divisional playoff games often come down to the wire, and this one should be no exception.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

While Texas' overtime victory over Arizona State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal pushed the total over, this semifinal matchup against Ohio State sets up for a much tighter and lower-scoring affair. Both teams possess elite defenses that have carried them through the season, and I expect those units to take center stage once again.

Ohio State's offense has been impressive in its first two CFP matchups, scoring 42 and 41 points, but it's worth noting that those performances came against defenses that don't measure up to Texas' caliber. The Longhorns' defense has been among the most dominant in college football this season, consistently shutting down opponents and dictating the pace of play. Even in their wild finish against Arizona State, Texas' defense was solid for the majority of the game, with lapses coming late in regulation and overtime.

On the other side, Texas' offense has shown flashes of explosiveness but will face its toughest test yet in Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes have been a model of consistency, holding eight straight and 12 of their last 13 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Their ability to stymie both the run and pass ensures that Texas will have to work for every yard and point in this matchup.

With both teams excelling defensively and the stakes at their peak, this game has all the makings of a defensive battle where field position and time of possession are prioritized. Scoring opportunities will likely be limited, and the game flow should favor a slower, more methodical pace.

Take the under. Projected score: Ohio State 24, Texas 20.

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Penn State at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Both Notre Dame and Penn State are coming off lower-scoring games in the College Football Playoffs, but this matchup sets up for a more offensively driven contest. Notre Dame's win over Georgia was influenced by the Bulldogs operating with a backup quarterback, leading to a conservative offensive approach. Against Penn State, the Irish face a much more explosive offense that has scored 30+ points in four straight games and six of its last seven.

Notre Dame has also been highly productive offensively, surpassing the 30-point mark in nine of its last 12 contests. While the Irish were able to dictate a slower tempo against Georgia by playing from ahead, this game projects to be a back-and-forth battle, encouraging a more open style of play. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score consistently throughout the season, and with the total set in the mid-40s, there’s plenty of room for this game to comfortably exceed expectations.

Expect this high-stakes matchup in Miami to bring out the best in both offenses.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 28, Notre Dame 24.

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

Despite their struggles this season, I see this as a strong spot for the Jets to close out the campaign on a high note. New York enters this contest off a pair of lopsided losses, including a 40-14 drubbing in Buffalo last week. However, this matchup against Miami offers an opportunity for redemption, particularly with revenge on the table following a 32-26 setback to the Dolphins earlier in the season.

Miami comes in riding the high of back-to-back victories over the 49ers and Browns, but both of those wins came against lackluster opponents, and the Dolphins were far from dominant. Cleveland, for instance, squandered multiple chances to make last Sunday's game competitive, ultimately undone by its own offensive woes.

The Jets, for all their issues, have shown flashes of competitiveness throughout the season and will relish the chance to spoil Miami's playoff hopes. Look for New York to come through as a slight home favorite.

Take New York. Projected score: Jets 24, Dolphins 20.

My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

This matchup sets up well for the Colts as they look to close out their season with a win and avenge a 37-34 loss in Jacksonville earlier this year. Indianapolis enters this game off a disappointing loss to the Giants in New Jersey last Sunday, a performance that should serve as motivation to finish strong in front of the home crowd.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, could find itself in a letdown spot. The Jaguars are fresh off a 20-13 victory over Tennessee in their home finale, a game that carried more emotional weight than this "meaningless" season-ender. While Jacksonville has shown flashes of improvement at times this season, their road performances remain inconsistent, and it’s reasonable to question their level of focus and intensity here.

Look for Indianapolis to take advantage of the situation, control the tempo, and secure a victory by margin.

Take Indianapolis. Projected score: Colts 30, Jaguars 17.

My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The first meeting between these teams back in mid-October was a high-scoring affair, totaling 58 points. As a result, we're seeing an inflated posted total for this season finale. However, the dynamics surrounding this game suggest a much different outcome.

Carolina's offense has been stagnant of late, scoring 16 points or fewer in three of its last four games despite hitting the 'over' in three consecutive contests. The Panthers' offensive struggles, combined with a defense capable of stepping up at times, point toward a lower-scoring game here.

Atlanta's situation is unique, as it clings to slim playoff hopes requiring a win and a Tampa Bay loss to New Orleans. That desperation could lead to a more conservative game plan to avoid mistakes. While the Falcons saw their game against Washington last Sunday sneak 'over' the total in overtime, they had been riding a stretch of low-scoring contests before that late scoring surge.

Look for a tightly-contested game, with scoring at a premium as both offenses fail to fully capitalize on their opportunities.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Falcons 23, Panthers 13.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Cincinnati enters this game on a high, having won four straight both straight up and against the spread, with their playoff hopes still alive. However, the Bengals have enjoyed favorable conditions at home against teams like the Broncos and Browns in recent weeks. This matchup in Pittsburgh, though, will present a different challenge. The Steelers will be hungry to spoil Cincinnati's playoff aspirations and have had extra time to prepare after a tough Christmas Day loss to the Chiefs at home. Expect Pittsburgh to come out with a renewed sense of urgency in front of their home crowd.

Pittsburgh had been playing solid football prior to this three-game slide, going 7-1 straight up and against the spread over their previous eight contests. They are more than capable of bouncing back at home, particularly with their defense likely to play a key role in keeping the Bengals' offense in check. The Steelers will not go down quietly, and their playoff hopes may be dashed, but they will take pride in spoiling Cincinnati’s chances.

Given the Steelers' resilience and the cold, challenging conditions in Pittsburgh, this game has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Look for the Steelers to keep it close and cover the spread.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Steelers 23, Bengals 20.

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Browns have endured a tough season, entering this matchup on a five-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. Despite their struggles, this divisional clash offers an opportunity for Cleveland to play spoiler and end their campaign on a high note. Divisional games often bring out the best in underdogs, and I expect the Browns to rise to the occasion, particularly with nothing to lose.

Baltimore comes into this contest on a roll, riding a three-game winning streak both straight up and ATS. The Ravens dominated in a 31-2 victory over Houston on Christmas Day and have had extra time to rest and prepare. However, with the playoffs looming, this could be a spot where Baltimore takes its foot off the gas. A victory is likely all they need, with a margin of victory being less critical, especially in what promises to be cold, windy conditions.

Given the circumstances, the Ravens may struggle to cover the sizable spread against a Browns team that figures to play with pride and determination. Expect Cleveland to keep this one closer than expected.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Ravens 27, Browns 16.

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Buffalo at 11 am ET on Saturday.

We'll take the underdog Flames in this bowl matchup, as they look to rebound from an 'upset' road loss against Sam Houston State to close the regular season. That defeat ended a three-game winning streak for Liberty but doesn't overshadow the Flames' solid season and their ability to step up when underestimated.

Buffalo enters riding a four-game winning streak, capped by a dominant win over Kent State back in late November. However, that victory came against one of the weakest teams in FBS, and the Bulls' recent success has likely lost its momentum due to the extended layoff. While Buffalo's back-to-back ATS wins may catch bettors' attention, the long break levels the playing field, and this spread seems to overestimate their advantage.

Even with the usual bowl game uncertainties surrounding opt-outs and absences, I believe Liberty is the more motivated and prepared team, and they are undervalued in this spot. Expect the Flames to take control and deliver an outright win.

Take Liberty. Projected score: Liberty 30, Buffalo 24.

My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Texas State at 4 pm ET on Friday.

We'll grab the points with North Texas as it looks to snap a five-game ATS losing streak in this bowl game matchup. While the Mean Green Eagles have struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six contests outright, this 'nothing to lose' situation provides them with an opportunity to regroup and deliver a strong performance.

On the other side, Texas State enters off a high-scoring 45-38 win and cover against South Alabama in its regular season finale. While the Bobcats have had a successful season, I don't see the motivation or dominance to justify laying nearly two touchdowns here, especially given the nature of bowl games, where teams often come in with varying levels of focus and preparation.

Expect a spirited effort from North Texas to keep this one within reach.

Take North Texas. Projected score: Texas State 34, North Texas 28.

My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Georgia at 4 pm ET on Thursday.

This College Football Playoff clash at the Superdome sets up as a high-scoring affair. Notre Dame enters off a controlled 27-17 victory over Indiana, but that result was shaped by the environment—a home game in mid-December with fewer offensive fireworks. In this neutral-site setting, the Irish offense should shine, having averaged over 38 points per game this season. Notre Dame has been particularly consistent down the stretch, scoring 30 or more points in eight of its last nine contests.

Georgia, meanwhile, boasts a balanced attack that has averaged 33.2 points per game against one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The Bulldogs are coming off a gritty 22-19 win over Texas in the SEC Championship, but their offense is more than capable of exploiting opportunities, particularly indoors at the Superdome.

With both teams’ offenses carrying momentum into this game, and with Georgia’s defense showing occasional vulnerability against elite competition, expect plenty of points on Wednesday night.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 24.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Oregon at 5 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Oregon has had an incredible season, I believe Wednesday will mark the Ducks' first setback as they face a battle-tested Ohio State team in Pasadena. The Buckeyes come in on the heels of a dominant 42-17 victory over Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. That recent action should benefit Ohio State, as it allowed them to maintain rhythm and even add strategic wrinkles to their game plan.

Meanwhile, Oregon hasn’t played since December 7th, which could lead to rust, especially against a high-powered team like the Buckeyes. Additionally, this game marks the Ducks' first contest on natural grass this season, a potentially significant factor in the Rose Bowl setting.

Ohio State also has the motivation of avenging a 32-31 loss to Oregon back on October 12th. The Buckeyes have improved significantly since then and are primed for a statement performance here.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 34, Oregon 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona State at 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Arizona State has been red-hot offensively, tallying 49 and 45 points in its last two contests during its six-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, this matchup against Texas presents a much tougher test. The Longhorns, fresh off a dominant win over Clemson, boast one of the nation’s most formidable defenses, allowing just 13.3 points per game this season.

While Texas scored 38 points in its first-round victory, it has been far from explosive offensively, failing to reach 21 points in four of its last eight games. Arizona State's defense has been reliable as well, holding every opponent this season to 31 points or fewer. With both teams stepping up in competition and the stakes higher than ever, expect a more conservative and defensive-minded approach.

Take the under. Projected score: Texas 27, Arizona State 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Boise State at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

After a round of low-scoring blowouts in the first stage of the College Football Playoffs, I anticipate a much more competitive and high-scoring contest in this Fiesta Bowl matchup. Penn State dominated SMU in the opening round, cashing the 'under,' but that result was largely due to SMU's inability to contribute offensively. Boise State is a more formidable opponent and enters this game knowing it must be aggressive offensively to have a chance at the upset.

While Boise State has delivered three consecutive 'under' results, those came in games where it was the favorite, dictating the pace. Here, as a sizable underdog, the Broncos will likely lean on their playmaking ability to stay in the game. Penn State, meanwhile, has proven itself capable of putting up points in bunches, averaging nearly 34 points per game this season, including an even higher average on grass surfaces.

Both teams have the tools to exploit each other’s defenses, and with the stakes at their highest, this one has all the makings of a shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 38, Boise State 28.

My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and San Francisco at 8:15 pm ET on Monday.

This matchup features two teams with potent offensive reputations, but the circumstances point to a lower-scoring affair. The Lions are in a potential look-ahead spot with a crucial divisional showdown against the Vikings next week. Their focus here is likely to lean toward controlling the pace and avoiding unnecessary risks against a stingy 49ers defense.

San Francisco has strung together three straight solid defensive outings despite dealing with multiple injuries. On the offensive side, the 49ers have shown limitations, also due to injuries, and are unlikely to push the pace. Similarly, Detroit's defense, while banged up, faces a favorable matchup against this depleted 49ers attack.

Despite recent high-scoring results from Detroit, this game sets up differently. The total seems inflated, reflecting an expectation of offensive fireworks that I don't anticipate materializing. Both teams are likely to lean on the ground game and conservative play-calling, resulting in a slower, grind-it-out contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Detroit 23, San Francisco 17.

Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Missouri at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this matchup following 'under' results in their respective regular-season finales, but the setup here points toward a higher-scoring affair. Iowa has shed its historically conservative offensive identity this season, averaging 28 points per game and displaying a more balanced approach. That should carry over against a Missouri defense that has surrendered over 20 points per contest this season.

On the flip side, Missouri has been in strong form offensively, averaging 31.8 points per game over its final four contests, showcasing its ability to put up points against varying levels of competition. It's unlikely the Tigers will aim to slow things down, especially given their recent scoring momentum.

While bowl games often present the risk of rust due to extended layoffs, this matchup takes place under favorable conditions in Nashville, minimizing concerns about weather disruptions. The trends also support the 'over,' with Iowa hitting the mark in five of its last seven games and Missouri doing so in three of its last four.

Take the over. Projected score: Iowa 28, Missouri 24.

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday.

The Browns will look to near the end of a dismal season on a positive note as they play their final home game of the campaign. Despite their four-game losing streak both SU and ATS, Cleveland should be motivated to play spoiler against a Dolphins team that still clings to slim playoff hopes.

Miami comes into this matchup off an emotional 'upset' win over the 49ers last week, but it hasn't performed well on the road this season. The Dolphins are just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from home, averaging a meager 15.3 points per game in those contests.

Given the low total in this matchup, points will come at a premium, favoring the underdog Browns, who should be able to keep this game competitive. Miami's offense has shown inconsistencies away from South Florida, and Cleveland's defense is capable of rising to the occasion.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Miami 17, Cleveland 16.

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Buccaneers return home looking to bounce back after a disappointing 'upset' loss in Dallas last Sunday night. Despite that setback, Tampa Bay has been playing solid football, winning four of its last five games SU and covering the spread in five of its last seven contests.

This week, the Bucs face a Panthers squad that is coming off an emotionally charged 36-30 victory over Arizona. While that snapped Carolina's four-game skid, it may leave the Panthers vulnerable to a letdown. Carolina has enjoyed a strong run ATS recently, going 6-1 over its last seven games, but that record has been padded by situations as heavy double-digit underdogs, which is not the case here.

The Buccaneers' balanced offense and opportunistic defense should prove too much for the Panthers in this divisional matchup, especially with Tampa Bay playing at home, where they’ve historically performed well.

Take Tampa Bay. Projected score: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 13.

My selection is on Army minus the points over Louisiana Tech at 9:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Louisiana Tech closed the regular season in stellar form, covering the spread in five straight games, including a commanding 33-0 win over Kennesaw State in its finale. However, the nearly month-long layoff since that contest could hinder its momentum heading into the Independence Bowl. The Bulldogs' level of competition during that stretch also leaves questions about how they’ll fare against a battle-tested opponent like Army.

The Black Knights enter this matchup fresh off a challenging three-week stretch, including the AAC Championship Game and their storied rivalry contest against Navy. While Army fell short in both outings, it is primed for a rebound here. The loss to Navy, where it was favored by six but lost 31-13, serves as added motivation heading into this game.

Army’s disciplined, clock-controlling offense is well-suited to frustrate Louisiana Tech, which could struggle to adjust after its extended layoff. With the Independence Bowl taking place in Shreveport, Army’s experience and preparation advantage could prove decisive in this spot.

Take Army. Projected score: Army 38, Louisiana Tech 13.

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm ET on Saturday.

While the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention following last week's disappointing 'upset' loss in Carolina, they should still relish the opportunity to play spoiler against their divisional rivals, the Rams. Arizona has been competitive in recent matchups with Los Angeles, and there’s reason to believe it can keep this game close.

The Rams enter riding a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. However, those victories came against inconsistent opponents, and they’ve logged plenty of miles recently with wins in San Francisco and New York. This contest marks another tough spot for Los Angeles, particularly with a playoff berth within their grasp, perhaps leading to a less-than-urgent approach.

Arizona has shown fight in similar spoiler roles before and is catching the Rams as an inflated favorite. With nearly a touchdown of cushion, I expect the Cardinals to keep this one close and potentially take it down to the wire.

Take Arizona. Projected score: Los Angeles 23, Arizona 20.

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over N.C. State at 5:45 pm ET on Saturday.

East Carolina comes into this matchup off a disappointing loss to Navy in its regular season finale, a game that carried little weight after the Pirates had already secured Bowl eligibility. Before that stumble, ECU had been on a roll, winning four straight games (3-1 ATS) and showcasing the offensive balance and defensive grit that made it a tough out all season. With time to refocus and a prime opportunity to finish the year on a high note, the Pirates should be motivated and well-prepared for this in-state clash.

N.C. State’s season, by contrast, has been underwhelming relative to expectations. The Wolfpack salvaged a measure of pride with an 'upset' win over North Carolina to end the regular season, snapping a two-game losing streak. However, their struggles in a favored role have been glaring, as evidenced by their 1-5 ATS record when laying points this season.

With ECU boasting the ability to go toe-to-toe offensively and N.C. State struggling to assert dominance, this line feels inflated. Look for the Pirates to keep this one close and possibly spring the outright upset.

Take East Carolina. Projected score: N.C. State 28, East Carolina 27.

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette plus the points over TCU at 2:15 pm ET on Saturday.

The Ragin' Cajuns enter this Bowl matchup seeking redemption after a humbling 31-3 defeat to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That loss snapped an impressive stretch where Louisiana had won eight of nine games outright and covered the spread in five of its last six contests. This is a resilient group that has consistently performed well in the underdog role and should be motivated to deliver a stronger showing in the New Mexico Bowl.

On the other side, TCU salvaged its season by winning its final three regular-season games to secure Bowl eligibility. While that turnaround was commendable, the Horned Frogs may find it difficult to maintain that momentum, especially as they take the field as double-digit favorites in what might feel like an underwhelming postseason destination.

Louisiana's balanced attack and disciplined defense should allow the Ragin' Cajuns to hang tough against a TCU squad that may struggle to sustain its recent form in this setting.

Take Louisiana-Lafayette. Projected score: TCU 27, Louisiana-Lafayette 21.

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Syracuse at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Syracuse enters this Bowl matchup as a significant favorite, bolstered by a strong finish to its regular season with three straight wins, including a notable upset as a 12-point underdog against Miami. However, the Orange now face a cross-country trip to take on Washington State in unfamiliar territory, a potential recipe for a letdown in this mid-tier Bowl game.

The Cougars stumbled to close their season, dropping three straight games as double-digit favorites. Despite those setbacks, Washington State remains a dangerous opponent, particularly in this setting, having already proven its mettle on this field with a narrow 29-26 victory over San Diego State back in October.

With less pressure and plenty to prove, Washington State is primed to rise to the occasion and challenge Syracuse throughout this contest. The Cougars’ familiarity with the venue and their ability to keep games close make them a live underdog in this spot.

Take Washington State. Projected score: Syracuse 31, Washington State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

Georgia Tech enters this Bowl game fresh off two consecutive high-scoring contests, including a chaotic 44-42 multi-overtime loss to rival Georgia. However, those results appear to be outliers in what has otherwise been a season defined by low-scoring affairs. The 'under' has cashed in seven of the Yellow Jackets' 12 games this year, with three straight staying 'under' the total prior to their recent shootouts.

Vanderbilt also saw its regular season finale produce plenty of scoring in a 36-23 loss to Tennessee. However, the Commodores have generally struggled to put points on the board, with the 'under' going 5-0-1 in their previous six contests. It's notable that Vanderbilt hasn't scored more than 24 points in its last eight games, and its offensive ceiling remains limited.

With both teams looking to impose their will defensively and neither boasting a consistently explosive offense, I expect a slower-paced and lower-scoring matchup in this neutral-site Bowl game.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Georgia Tech 23, Vanderbilt 20.

My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas State and Bowling Green at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

This bowl game might not grab national headlines, but it has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are offensively capable and defensively suspect, setting the stage for a shootout in Mobile, Alabama, where weather conditions are expected to be ideal.

Arkansas State has shown offensive consistency, scoring 27+ points in five of its last six games. However, its defense has been a liability, surrendering 30+ points on five occasions this season. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense found its groove late in the season, scoring 30+ points in three of its final four games before a season-ending loss to Miami-Ohio.

While both teams managed to deliver a couple of defensive highlights earlier in the season—Arkansas State limiting Michigan to 28 points and Bowling Green holding Texas A&M to 26—those performances feel like distant memories given their defensive struggles against more modest competition down the stretch.

With neither defense likely to offer much resistance and both offenses capable of taking advantage, this matchup should deliver plenty of points under the lights on Thursday night.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Bowling Green 35, Arkansas State 31.

My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

Both Seattle and Chicago enter this matchup off high-scoring contests last Sunday, with the Seahawks getting involved in a shootout against the Vikings and the Bears suffering a lopsided defeat at the hands of the Lions. However, the circumstances here suggest a slower-paced affair.

Seattle's struggles to establish its ground game in recent weeks have been directly tied to early deficits. In this spot as a road favorite against a struggling Bears squad, the Seahawks are more likely to dictate the pace and revert to their preferred run-heavy gameplan, shortening the game and limiting scoring opportunities.

On the other side, Chicago's defense has been a liability, allowing 30+ points in three consecutive games. That said, facing a less dynamic Seahawks offense should give the Bears an opportunity to deliver a more focused effort, especially after getting torched by an elite Lions unit last Sunday. Chicago’s best chance to stay competitive lies in controlling the clock offensively and reducing the burden on its defense.

With both teams likely to emphasize ball control, expect a more subdued scoring output in this Thursday night matchup.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Seattle 23, Chicago 16.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Kansas City enters this Christmas Day matchup riding a five-game winning streak, covering the spread in each of its last two contests. The Chiefs remain a formidable opponent, but this could be a tricky spot for them as they travel to face a Pittsburgh team desperate to end a two-game skid, both straight-up and ATS.

The Steelers are expected to get a boost with the anticipated return of WR George Pickens, adding a dynamic element to their offense. While Pittsburgh has struggled recently, its defense, particularly its front line, is well-equipped to disrupt a Kansas City offense still dealing with inconsistencies along its offensive line.

With Pittsburgh looking to deliver a strong performance in front of its home crowd and motivated to keep its playoff hopes alive, I like its chances of staying within the number.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Pittsburgh 24, Kansas City 23.

My selection is on South Florida plus the points over San Jose State at 8 pm ET on Tuesday.

South Florida enters the Hawaii Bowl with a strong finish to its regular season, having unlocked its offense to score 59, 63, and 28 points in its final three games. Although the Bulls were upset as 5.5-point favorites against Rice in their regular season finale, snapping a two-game winning streak, they’ll be eager to bounce back in a high-energy setting like this one. The Bulls have been able to move the ball effectively and should have success against a San Jose State team that has struggled a bit down the stretch.

San Jose State did manage to close its regular season with a win and cover at home against Stanford, but overall, the Spartans covered the spread just twice in their final eight regular-season contests. With the competition tougher late in the season, the Spartans' offense and defense both began to sputter.

In what should be a competitive game, South Florida’s recent offensive surge, combined with San Jose State’s struggles, makes the Bulls a strong play to stay within the points and potentially win outright.

Take South Florida. Projected score: South Florida 33, San Jose State 30.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Fresno State at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Northern Illinois looks to close its season on a high note after narrowly missing out on a MAC Championship Game appearance, having won three of its last four games to end the regular season. While the Huskies have dropped three straight ATS decisions, much of that can be attributed to their being overvalued late in the campaign. Here, they face a Fresno State squad that they match up well against, and I believe the number is fair.

Fresno State finished its season with a modest six wins, though one of those victories came against an FCS opponent in Sacramento State – a game in which the Bulldogs failed to cover. While the schedule included some tough opponents, it wasn’t an overly impressive campaign, and Fresno enters this neutral-site matchup in unfamiliar territory, traveling to Boise.

Northern Illinois has shown it can rise to the occasion, highlighted by a road win over Notre Dame earlier in the season. Expect the Huskies to use their physicality and balance on offense to take control and cover the spread in this contest.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 30, Fresno State 21.

My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:20 pm ET on Sunday.

Both teams enter this matchup off high-scoring performances, but the setup points to a lower-scoring affair here. Tampa Bay’s offense exploded for 40 points last week against the Chargers, but a regression seems likely against a Dallas defense that has tightened up late in the season. The Cowboys have consistently demonstrated the ability to limit opponents, especially at home, where they've often forced teams into long, inefficient drives.

Dallas' offense, while effective, isn’t designed for high-tempo shootouts in its current form. Their 30-point output last week was somewhat misleading, as they capitalized on short fields against a struggling Panthers team. Facing a Buccaneers defense that has hit its stride, having held five consecutive opponents to 23 points or fewer, the Cowboys are unlikely to replicate that scoring.

This matchup projects as a defensive battle, with both teams playing at a deliberate pace and focusing on field position. Look for limited explosive plays and scoring opportunities as the defenses dictate the tempo.

Take the under. Projected score: Tampa Bay 20, Dallas 17.

AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Buffalo at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

The Patriots enter this matchup on a four-game losing streak, during which the 'over' has cashed in each game. However, this game presents a prime opportunity for New England's defense to rebound. The Bills return home after back-to-back road games against the Rams and Lions, both of which were high-intensity contests. Those games saw plenty of scoring, but I anticipate a shift in pace and tone as Buffalo looks to recalibrate offensively.

Buffalo’s defense has shown the ability to clamp down, particularly at home, where it allows fewer points per game compared to its road performances. On the other side, New England has struggled to find offensive consistency, especially in recent weeks. A divisional showdown like this one often brings a more methodical approach, favoring fewer explosive plays and an overall lower-scoring outcome.

Take the under. Projected score: Buffalo 24, New England 17.

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday.

The Vikings have been riding high, boasting a seven-game winning streak that includes a 3-0 SU mark on their recent homestand. While they've been impressive, this matchup presents a potential stumbling block as they head west to face a Seahawks team eager to respond following last Sunday night's disappointing home loss to the Packers. That defeat not only snapped Seattle's four-game SU and ATS winning streak but also served as a wake-up call as the Seahawks prepare for their final home game of the regular season.

Historically, the Seahawks have been strong in bounce-back situations under head coach Pete Carroll, particularly at home. With added motivation to close out their home slate on a positive note, look for Seattle to keep this game competitive, if not pull off the outright upset. Minnesota's streak has been impressive, but the challenge of traveling to a tough road environment against a motivated opponent could prove too much.

Take Seattle. Projected score: Minnesota 24, Seattle 23.

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bears are not a popular play following their lopsided loss to the Vikings on Monday, but this is a prime spot for a bounce-back. Chicago has dropped eight straight games, including two consecutive ATS losses, but the team will be hungry to prove it can compete at home.

Meanwhile, Detroit comes off its first loss in 12 games after a defeat to Buffalo at home, with defensive injuries continuing to be a major issue. The Lions have also dropped three straight ATS, and their defense is struggling, leaving the door open for a more competitive game than most are expecting.

On Thanksgiving, the Bears nearly pulled off an upset at Detroit despite poor clock management spoiling a late-game comeback. With the game at Soldier Field this time, expect Chicago to keep things tight and cover the spread in a closely contested affair.

Take Chicago. Projected score: Detroit 27, Chicago 24.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Tennessee at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Ohio State comes into this game with something to prove after a shocking 13-10 loss to rival Michigan on November 30th. That disappointing defeat as a heavy 19-point favorite ended the Buckeyes' five-game winning streak, during which they went 3-2 ATS. It's worth noting that their only other loss this season came in a nail-biter on the road against eventual Big Ten champion Oregon, highlighting the quality of their campaign.

While Tennessee closed out the season with consecutive wins and covers, those victories came against overmatched opponents in UTEP and Vanderbilt. When last truly tested, the Volunteers fell by 14 points to Georgia on November 16th. That loss was part of a larger trend, as Tennessee managed just a 3-5 ATS record over its last eight games following a flawless 4-0 start both straight-up and against the spread.

Ohio State has faced the tougher schedule overall and brings superior talent to the table. The Buckeyes will be eager to rebound in a big way in this spot and I anticipate them overpowering a Tennessee team that hasn’t consistently delivered against top-tier competition.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 38, Tennessee 21.

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Steelers and Ravens consistently produce tight, hard-fought games, and this matchup should be no different. Pittsburgh claimed the first meeting between these AFC North rivals in a defensive battle, 18-16, back on November 17th. Despite coming off a rough loss in Philadelphia, the Steelers have shown resilience on the road this season, boasting a 5-3 SU and ATS record away from home. Optimism surrounding the return of T.J. Watt, who resumed practicing on Thursday, only adds to their chances of a bounce-back effort.

The Ravens, meanwhile, rolled past the struggling Giants last week but have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over their last four games and going 2-3 ATS in their last five. Baltimore remains a formidable opponent, yet its offensive line faces a stiffer challenge in this matchup compared to the Giants' underwhelming front.

Pittsburgh’s defense, especially with the potential presence of Watt, should be able to apply pressure and keep Baltimore’s offense in check. Given the Steelers' knack for performing well on the road and the Ravens’ tendency for up-and-down play, I anticipate another close contest, making the points valuable in this spot.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17.

My selection is on Texas minus the points over Clemson at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

The Longhorns enter this matchup looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That defeat marked Texas' second loss to the Bulldogs this season, accounting for their only blemishes on an otherwise stellar campaign. Notably, Texas has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation, which should have them well-prepared for this contest.

Clemson, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, including two outright losses. While the Tigers deserve credit for their ACC Championship win over SMU, that came in a favorable spot following an emotional loss to South Carolina. This matchup is a different story, as Clemson steps up significantly in class against a Texas team that boasts superior talent and physicality on both sides of the ball.

With Texas eager to finish the season strong and erase the sting of its SEC title game loss, I expect the Longhorns to control this game from the outset and cover the number with room to spare.

Take Texas. Projected score: Texas 37, Clemson 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between SMU and Penn State at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

This total seems inflated given the context of the matchup. Both teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results, with Penn State riding a streak of four straight 'overs.' However, this early kickoff in Happy Valley sets up for a more measured, defensive battle.

SMU's offense has been electric, scoring 30+ points in all but three games this season, including a strong showing in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. However, they'll face a much tougher test here against a Penn State defense that has been one of the nation's best, holding nine opponents to 20 points or fewer this season. The Nittany Lions will be looking to bounce back after a rare defensive lapse in the Big Ten Championship, where they allowed 45 points to Oregon.

The two-week layoff for both teams could lead to some offensive rust early in the contest, particularly against Penn State's disciplined defense. On the other side, SMU's defense has shown improvement as the season has progressed and will likely benefit from the added preparation time to scheme against Penn State's balanced but not overly explosive offense.

Expect a lower-scoring game than most anticipate in this matchup.

Take the under. Projected score: Penn State 27, SMU 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Notre Dame at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This total feels inflated for a matchup involving a stout Notre Dame defense. The Irish have been excellent on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.6 points per game this season. They’ll look to turn this into a physical, grind-it-out affair in their backyard, particularly after having three weeks off to prepare. While Notre Dame enters this contest on the heels of consecutive 'over' results, those outcomes may not be indicative of what we’ll see in this game, especially given the extended layoff, which could lead to some early offensive rust.

Indiana’s offensive success this season can’t be overlooked, but it’s important to note that the Hoosiers were held to just 20 and 15 points in back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State, two teams with defenses on par with Notre Dame's. Like the Irish, Indiana comes into this game following consecutive 'over' results, but those were against more offensively-oriented teams.

With both teams likely to prioritize defense and methodical play, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Take the under. Projected score: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20.

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

I believe there’s an underlying SEC bias influencing this line, which provides value on Tulane. The Green Wave enters this matchup with a 9-4 record but comes off consecutive losses both SU and ATS, including a blowout loss to Army in the AAC Championship Game. That disappointing finish should serve as a motivator for Tulane, giving them a chip on their shoulder as they take on an SEC opponent.

Florida, on the other hand, closed out an up-and-down season with three straight victories, including outright upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss. However, both of those wins came at home, where the Gators have thrived. Away from The Swamp, Florida has been far less reliable, posting a 1-3 record on the road this season. While this game takes place in Tampa, Florida’s proximity might not be enough to overcome its inconsistency outside Gainesville. Additionally, the Gators may not be fully locked in for this less-prestigious bowl game, with their focus perhaps lingering on missed opportunities this season.

Expect a motivated Tulane squad to keep this game close, and don’t be surprised if they push Florida to the brink.

Take Tulane. Projected score: Florida 27, Tulane 24.

AFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

The first matchup between these two teams this season narrowly went 'over' the total with a combined 39 points. In that game, Los Angeles jumped out to a big lead before easing up defensively, allowing Denver to claw back late. This time around, the game script should look much different.

The Chargers are dealing with numerous injuries, most notably to QB Justin Herbert, who continues to battle through multiple ailments. With key defensive contributors also sidelined, Los Angeles is likely to employ a conservative, grind-it-out gameplan aimed at limiting mistakes and keeping this game within reach.

Denver is coming off an impressive offensive output, scoring 31 points in last week’s victory over the Colts. However, much of that production stemmed from capitalizing on Indianapolis’ mistakes. After back-to-back 30+ point performances, the Broncos are likely due for some offensive regression, particularly on a short week against a familiar divisional opponent.

Expect both teams to lean on their defenses and for the pace of play to slow, resulting in a lower-scoring divisional battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Los Angeles 20, Denver 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

While both teams have leaned toward lower-scoring games recently, this matchup presents an opportunity for offensive fireworks. The total has risen since opening, signaling sharp interest in a potential high-scoring affair.

Sam Houston State’s offense struggled for much of the season, but with nearly three weeks to prepare for this Bowl game, the Bearkats should have had time to make adjustments and incorporate new wrinkles. Their defense, while impressive down the stretch, holding five straight opponents to 21 points or less, will face a stiff challenge against Georgia Southern’s capable offense.

The Eagles have consistently found success offensively, scoring 24 points or more in six of their last eight games. While their defense has been solid, they did allow 20+ points in four of their final five regular-season contests, suggesting vulnerabilities that Sam Houston State can exploit.

The fast track of the Caesars Superdome should also favor a higher-scoring game, as both offenses aim to make a statement in this Bowl matchup. With both teams capable of contributing to the scoreboard, the setup points to a sneaky shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia Southern 31, Sam Houston State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and James Madison at 5:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this matchup after high-scoring affairs, but the setup here points toward a lower-scoring game. Western Kentucky is coming off a lopsided 52-14 loss to Jacksonville State in the C-USA Championship Game. While that result might suggest defensive struggles, the Hilltoppers' defense has been serviceable overall this season, holding that same Jacksonville State team to just 17 points in their prior meeting. The more concerning factor for WKU has been its sputtering offense, which managed just 21 points or fewer in each of its final four games.

James Madison, on the other hand, is looking to rebound after back-to-back upset losses. The Dukes’ most recent game against Marshall ended in a 35-33 shootout, but that was an outlier for a JMU defense that has otherwise been solid this season. This matchup against a struggling WKU offense should give the Dukes an opportunity to tighten up and return to form on the defensive side of the ball.

Additionally, wet weather in Boca Raton may lead to less-than-ideal field conditions on the natural grass surface, potentially slowing down both offenses. Given Western Kentucky’s recent offensive struggles and James Madison’s defensive potential, this game is shaping up to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. Projected score: James Madison 24, Western Kentucky 17.

My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Memphis at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

The line has shifted too far in Memphis' direction, especially given the circumstances surrounding both teams. Memphis comes off a 34-24 win over Tulane, but their season has been inconsistent, finishing 6-6 against the spread. There's also a question about their motivation in this matchup. They had a solid win to close the regular season, but they didn’t make the AAC Championship Game, which raises concerns about their energy level for this bowl game.

West Virginia, on the other hand, is playing for pride after a disappointing regular season. Despite firing head coach Neal Brown and the uncertainty surrounding the interim coaching staff, the Mountaineers still have a chance to finish the season on a positive note. They performed well on the road this season with wins at Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati, which shows they are capable of stepping up when needed.

While Memphis beat Cincinnati in last year's bowl game, that was a team decimated by opt-outs, unlike West Virginia, which will likely have fewer players missing this time around. With the Mountaineers motivated to save face after a tough year and Memphis potentially lacking the same drive, I believe the line has moved too far in the Tigers’ favor.

Take West Virginia. Projected score: West Virginia 27, Memphis 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Las Vegas at 8:30 pm ET on Monday.

This matchup sets up well for a high-scoring affair under the lights at Allegiant Stadium. Atlanta, mired in a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS, should find some offensive rhythm against a Raiders defense that has been bleeding points lately. Even with Maxx Crosby in the lineup, Las Vegas surrendered 28 or more points in four of their last five games. Without their defensive star, containing Atlanta's diverse offensive attack becomes an even greater challenge.

On the other side, the Raiders have been in a prolonged offensive slump, failing to crack 20 points in four consecutive games. However, a matchup against Atlanta's middling defense provides a potential breakout opportunity. Desmond Ridder, if pressed into action against his former team, could be motivated to make an impression in a favorable matchup.

While Las Vegas has hit the 'under' in two straight games, that streak seems unlikely to extend in this context, especially with Atlanta taking a major step down in defensive class after facing several strong opponents in recent weeks. The Falcons’ offense, which has been stymied by tough defenses like the Saints, Broncos, and Vikings, should have no trouble exploiting the Raiders' vulnerabilities.

Look for both teams to trade scores in what shapes up to be an entertaining, back-and-forth contest.

Take the over. Projected score: Atlanta 30, Las Vegas 24.

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm ET on Monday.

The Bears stay on the road after a rough outing in San Francisco but have shown resilience throughout the season (at least from an ATS perspective), frequently keeping games competitive against tough divisional rivals. While they’ve lost seven straight, a narrow three-point defeat against these same Vikings in late November proves they can hang with Minnesota. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has been a bright spot, particularly against blitz-heavy defenses. That’s noteworthy given the Vikings' aggressive approach under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who loves to dial up pressure. Williams’ ability to make plays under duress could be pivotal in this matchup.

On the flip side, Minnesota has strung together six consecutive wins, but its games haven’t typically been blowouts. Seven of their 13 contests this season have been decided by six points or fewer. The Vikings are coming off a decisive win over the Falcons last Sunday, but replicating that level of dominance is no guarantee. Their offense has been effective but not overpowering, which should allow Chicago to stay within striking distance.

With a young quarterback who thrives against pressure and a divisional rival that rarely wins by margin, the Bears are in a solid position to cover the spread.

Take Chicago. Projected score: Minnesota 24, Chicago 21.

SNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Seattle at 8:15 pm ET on Sunday.

Both teams have shifted toward run-heavy approaches in recent weeks, a trend that looks likely to continue. While Green Bay is coming off a high-scoring affair in Detroit, its recent offensive outburst is unsustainable, with regression likely against a Seattle defense that has been playing solidly. Similarly, Seattle’s 30-point performance last week against Arizona marked a six-week high. It was an outlier performance that I don't believe will be repeated this week.

Both teams will likely look to control the tempo and grind out possessions, leading to fewer scoring opportunities. Green Bay has shown a greater commitment to the run game recently, and Seattle’s offensive strategy is well-suited for a lower-scoring battle, especially at home. With both sides preferring a methodical pace and defenses capable of holding their own, expect a game that falls short of the posted total.

Take the under. Projected score: Green Bay 20, Seattle 17.

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

Philadelphia enters this contest on the heels of a less-than-impressive showing against Carolina last Sunday, failing to cover as a heavy favorite despite pulling out the victory. That result sets up a prime bounce-back spot for the Eagles, who continue to ride an impressive nine-game winning streak. Facing a Pittsburgh squad that has overachieved this season at 10-3, the Eagles will likely aim to reassert their dominance, especially with home-field advantage.

The Steelers have done well to string together consecutive wins, but their schedule strength is worth considering. A looming divisional clash with Baltimore could have them looking ahead, making this matchup in Philadelphia a potential difficult spot.

Expect Philadelphia to leverage its depth and talent edge on both sides of the ball, wearing down a Steelers team that may find it difficult to keep pace offensively. This feels like a spot where the Eagles return to form and deliver a decisive victory to keep their streak alive.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 31, Pittsburgh 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Houston at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The total has been dropping, but there’s plenty of reason to believe we’ll see a high-scoring affair at NRG Stadium. Miami has embraced a pass-first offense in recent weeks, with the return of Tua Tagovailoa sparking an uptick in scoring output. The Dolphins have gone 'over' the total in three of their last four games, with their vertical attack showing explosive potential.

Houston, meanwhile, comes off a low-scoring win against Jacksonville, but this matchup sets up as a different story. C.J. Stroud has developed a strong rapport with Nico Collins, and the Texans are well-equipped to exploit a Miami defense that has struggled against the pass. On the other side, Houston’s secondary has been vulnerable, allowing the most passing touchdowns and big plays (40+ yards) of any team this season, a stat that bodes well for Miami's speedsters.

Expect both offenses to move the ball effectively, with plenty of scoring opportunities on both sides. With these teams matching up in ideal indoor conditions, the game has shootout potential written all over it.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Miami 34, Houston 27.

AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Tennessee at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Cincinnati’s offense has been a force to reckon with in recent weeks, averaging over 33 points per game across a five-game stretch before being held to a "modest" 27 in Monday's victory over Dallas. Joe Burrow and the Bengals' attack continue to find success both through the air and on the ground, making them a consistent threat to light up the scoreboard.

While Tennessee’s offense has been less explosive, it remains opportunistic and capable of capitalizing on favorable matchups. The Titans' recent track record suggests a pattern of rebounding offensively after low-scoring games, and they'll likely need to open things up to keep pace with the Bengals. Additionally, Cincinnati's defense has been vulnerable, allowing more than 20 points in five of its last six games, leaving the door open for Tennessee to contribute its share to the scoring.

Given Cincinnati's firepower and Tennessee’s tendency to bounce back offensively, this matchup sets up as a high-scoring affair. Both teams should find opportunities to exploit weaknesses in the opposing defenses, leading to a game that surpasses the posted total.

Take the over. Projected score: Cincinnati 31, Tennessee 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between South Alabama and Western Michigan at 9 pm ET on Saturday.

South Alabama has been firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring 35 or more points in four of their last five games. Their offense has been explosive, and playing in familiar conditions for the Salute to Veterans Bowl, they should have no trouble continuing to put up big numbers. Western Michigan, although they finished their regular season with three straight games going under the total, has been known for its high-scoring, fast-paced games earlier this season, including multiple 40-point outings. Given the Broncos' offensive firepower and their tendency to engage in shootouts, I expect them to break out of their recent scoring funk.

The game also benefits from favorable weather conditions and a neutral-site setting, creating an environment that favors offensive execution. With both teams capable of putting up big numbers, the total looks to be too low for this matchup.

Take the over. Projected score: South Alabama 38, Western Michigan 31.

My selection is on Navy plus the points over Army at 3 pm ET on Saturday.

Army is riding high after a dominant performance in its blowout win over Tulane to secure the American Athletic Conference title last Friday. While the Black Knights’ victory was impressive, it also sets up a potential letdown spot here. Army enters this rivalry game laying more than a field goal, a relatively rare situation that hasn’t always gone well for them in this series. The last time Army was favored by more than three points against Navy, the Midshipmen pulled off a 17-13 upset as 7.5-point underdogs in 2021. Moreover, the Black Knights have cooled off against the spread, covering in just two of their last six games despite their continued success on the field.

Navy, meanwhile, has had an extra week to prepare after finishing its regular season with a convincing 34-20 win at East Carolina. The Midshipmen started the season with six straight wins and remain a formidable opponent, especially in the tightly contested Army-Navy rivalry. This matchup has a long history of close finishes, with eight of the last ten meetings being decided by a touchdown or less. Navy’s disciplined approach and ability to rise to the occasion in this emotional game make them a live underdog once again.

Take Navy. Projected score: Army 20, Navy 17.

TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:15 pm ET on Thursday.

The Rams enter this matchup riding a wave of momentum after pulling off a thrilling win in a high-scoring affair against Buffalo on Sunday. However, the dynamic of this divisional contest shifts significantly, with Los Angeles likely opting for a more methodical approach. Expect the Rams to emphasize their ground game and focus on managing the clock against a San Francisco defense that, while banged up, remains disciplined.

The 49ers are coming off a dominant showing against Chicago, but their offensive consistency remains questionable due to injuries and underwhelming performances throughout the season. With limited time to prepare on a short week, it’s reasonable to anticipate a less efficient offensive display. Given the divisional stakes and the familiarity between these teams, defenses should hold the upper hand, keeping scoring opportunities scarce.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Los Angeles 23, San Francisco 20.

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm ET on Monday.

Cincinnati enters this matchup on a three-game skid but finds itself in a favorable spot to rebound against a Dallas squad whose recent wins mask deeper struggles in what has become a lost season. At 5-7 and without QB Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have battled but lack the firepower to match an explosive Bengals offense. Cincinnati has consistently found the end zone, scoring 41, 34, 27, and 38 points in its last four games, and will likely exploit a Dallas defense that has shown cracks against high-powered opponents.

Even on the road, Cincinnati’s superior offensive firepower and urgency to end its losing streak should prove decisive. While Dallas has overachieved in consecutive wins both SU and ATS, this matchup represents a step up in class that the Cowboys are ill-equipped to handle.

Take Cincinnati. Projected score: Cincinnati 28, Dallas 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:15 pm ET on Sunday.

The initial meeting between these teams was a defensive battle, but this rematch sets up for a much higher-scoring affair. Both offenses are capable of bouncing back after low-scoring wins last week. For the Chargers, the absence of RB J.K. Dobbins has shifted their offensive focus toward the passing game. QB Justin Herbert has shown he can perform well against Kansas City's defense in the past, and with an improving receiving corps, Los Angeles should generate scoring opportunities.

On the other side, Kansas City's offense is back near full strength following RB Isaiah Pacheco's return. The Chiefs had found a groove offensively before being slowed by a tricky Raiders defense that has had their number in recent meetings last week. Facing a Chargers defense playing its second straight road game, the Chiefs are poised for a strong performance.

Look for this game to feature far more fireworks than the earlier meeting this season.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Kansas City 31, Los Angeles 24.

NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and San Francisco at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bears' offense has found a spark under interim head coach Anthony Thomas, with rookie QB Caleb Williams settling into a groove. Expect that momentum to continue against a 49ers defense struggling with injuries and inconsistency. While San Francisco's offense was stymied by the elements in Buffalo last week, returning to more favorable conditions at home should lead to a much-improved performance. Chicago’s defense, while solid, has shown vulnerability against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry. This sets up well for the Niners, as RB Isaac Guerendo has proven to be a capable fill-in for their injured backfield stars. Both teams are positioned to find offensive success, leading to a higher-scoring affair.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: San Francisco 31, Chicago 24.

NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles are in a classic letdown spot, returning home after a pair of impressive road wins and covers against the Rams and Ravens. With eight straight victories, Philadelphia is riding high but might find it challenging to sustain maximum focus as heavy favorites against a seemingly overmatched Carolina team.

The Panthers, however, have been quietly improving. They've covered the spread in four straight games, showing resilience and competitiveness against more talented opponents. Their recent form suggests they can hang around even against a powerhouse like Philadelphia, especially if the Eagles come out flat.

Carolina’s defense has stepped up lately, and their offense has done just enough to keep games tight. With nearly two touchdowns to work with, the Panthers offer value as a team likely to frustrate the Eagles in a closer-than-expected contest.

Take Carolina. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Carolina 20.

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Oregon at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, a closer look at their defensive profiles suggests this contest could be lower-scoring than expected. Penn State's last three games all went 'over,' but the Nittany Lions carried much of the scoring load themselves against Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. Their defense remains a strength, having allowed more than 20 points just once in their last six outings.

Oregon, despite a 49-21 shootout win over Washington last week, has been remarkably consistent defensively. The Ducks have held six straight opponents to 21 points or fewer, showcasing their ability to limit scoring opportunities. Their methodical offense also contributes to game flow that often prevents back-and-forth shootouts.

Both defenses are capable of stepping up in big games, and with two disciplined units on the field, the scoring pace should remain manageable throughout.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Penn State 24, Oregon 20.

AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Army at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This AAC Championship Game projects as a hard-nosed affair. Tulane enters looking to rebound after its eight-game winning streak was snapped by Memphis last week. The Green Wave defense had been dominant prior to that setback, allowing just nine points total in its previous three contests, including a shutout of Navy’s triple-option attack—a potentially key factor in preparing for Army's similar offensive scheme.

Army's offense, which started the season strongly, has cooled off significantly. The Black Knights managed 20 points or fewer in three of their last four games, suggesting that Tulane's stout defense could have an edge. Defensively, while Army struggled in its final two games of the regular season, conceding 73 points, the unit has shown flashes of being able to slow down opponents and will look to tighten up in this high-stakes contest.

With both teams potentially leaning on their running games to control the clock and limit possessions, this game is likely to stay below the total.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Tulane 24, Army 13.

NFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

Detroit enters this game on a 10-game win streak, but it's been far from perfect. Last week, they narrowly escaped a comeback attempt by the Bears, with poor clock management costing Chicago at the end of the game. While the Lions' impressive streak is notable, their defensive injuries have started to pile up and could present significant issues against a high-powered Packers offense.

Green Bay comes into this matchup with momentum, having won three straight games and scoring 30 or more points in each of the last two. They have the offensive firepower to exploit Detroit's defensive weaknesses, particularly with key players missing. The Packers also have confidence from last season's Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit, which could fuel their motivation in this divisional matchup.

While the Lions are a strong team, Green Bay's recent form and the issues Detroit is facing make this game much closer than expected. The Packers should cover the spread with a competitive showing.

Take Green Bay. Projected score: Green Bay 27, Detroit 24.

MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Denver at 8:15 pm ET on Monday.

Jameis Winston has injected a boom-or-bust element into the Browns' offense, resulting in a string of high-scoring contests. Cleveland's last four games have finished with totals of 53, 37, 49, and 43 points, showcasing Winston's ability to spark explosive plays for both his team and their opponents.

Denver's offense has hit its stride behind rookie QB Bo Nix, who has led the Broncos to a combined 67 points over their last two games. Nix's steady progression and knack for big plays have given Denver's offense newfound consistency and potency.

Weather won’t be a factor in this primetime matchup, with clear skies and light winds creating ideal conditions for both offenses to thrive. The combination of Winston's high-variance play style and Denver's emerging firepower makes a compelling case for a higher-scoring affair than anticipated.

Take the over. Projected score: Denver 28, Cleveland 24.

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Minnesota enters riding a four-game winning streak, but this game could present a letdown spot as the Vikings return home after three straight road victories. While their recent success is notable, cracks in the defense were evident in last Sunday’s narrow win over Chicago, where they struggled to contain a pedestrian Bears offense.

Arizona, on the other hand, comes off a loss in Seattle, snapping its own four-game winning streak. The Cardinals have proven they can compete against quality opponents, and their dynamic offense poses a significant challenge for Minnesota. Expect Arizona to exploit mismatches, especially if Vikings QB Sam Darnold struggles to maintain consistency against an opportunistic Cardinals defense.

This is a spot where Arizona’s versatility and recent form should keep the game close, if not deliver an outright upset.

Take Arizona. Projected score: Arizona 27, Minnesota 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New York at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Seahawks have leaned heavily on their defense lately, which has resulted in five consecutive 'under' results. However, I expect a shift in this matchup. Seattle’s defense is coming off a dominant performance, holding Arizona to just six points last week, but maintaining that level of intensity could be challenging against a rested Jets team coming off its bye week.

New York’s offense showed signs of life in its last outing against Indianapolis, and with nothing to lose as they wind down a forgettable season, the Jets are likely to play loose and take more chances offensively. Seattle's offense, meanwhile, should find opportunities against a Jets defense that has struggled to generate consistent stops in recent weeks.

The combination of a rejuvenated Jets offense and a likely defensive regression from Seattle points to a higher-scoring contest.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Seattle 27, New York 20.

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Texans are primed for a strong response after last week’s upset loss at home to Tennessee, as they hit the road to face a struggling Jaguars team. Houston’s offense has shown explosiveness this season and should thrive against a Jacksonville defense that has been porous, allowing a staggering 52 points in its most recent outing against Detroit. Even with a bye week to regroup, the Jags' defensive issues are unlikely to be fully resolved.

Jacksonville’s offense, meanwhile, could be hampered by a less-than-healthy Trevor Lawrence, who has been battling injuries and has limited weapons to work with. Scoring consistently against a Texans defense that has shown flashes of competence will be a challenge for the Jags.

While Jacksonville has covered the spread in the last two meetings, Houston has largely had the upper hand in this series, and the Jaguars’ recent inconsistency makes them hard to trust in this spot. Look for the Texans to take control early and cover comfortably.

Take Houston. Projected score: Texans 31, Jaguars 17.

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

Hawaii enters this matchup with little fanfare after suffering a blowout loss to Utah State in its most recent outing. However, the Rainbow Warriors have had an extra week to prepare and should be motivated to deliver a strong effort in their final home game of the season, especially with revenge in mind after a 42-21 loss to New Mexico last year.

New Mexico, on the other hand, is riding high after consecutive upset victories over San Diego State and Washington State, but the timing of the bye week may have disrupted their momentum. The Lobos are in a pressure-packed situation, needing a win to become bowl eligible. That pressure, coupled with Hawaii's potential to exceed expectations in its home finale, could make this a closer game than most anticipate.

Take Hawaii. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and Hawaii at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances, this matchup sets up for a more conservative outcome. Both New Mexico and Hawaii have had two weeks to prepare since last playing on November 16th, which should allow their defenses to tighten up against familiar offensive schemes.

New Mexico has shown flashes of explosiveness but remains inconsistent. Earlier this season, the Lobos managed only six points against Colorado State. On the other side, Hawaii has struggled to find offensive rhythm, scoring 24 points or fewer in five of its last seven contests. This has contributed to the 'under' hitting in six of the Rainbow Warriors' 10 lined games this season.

Given the extra preparation time and the tendency for these teams to stall offensively, look for a lower-scoring affair than expected in this late-night clash.

Take the under. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

Sun Belt Conference Favorite of the Year. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Marshall at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Marshall has enjoyed a tremendous season, currently riding a five-game winning streak and boasting an impressive 9-1-1 ATS record. However, this sets up as a challenging spot for the Thundering Herd as they stay on the road following an emotional upset win over Old Dominion last Saturday. Marshall's road performance has been less impressive, going 2-3 away from home.

James Madison, on the other hand, will be eager to bounce back after seeing its three-game winning streak snapped in a surprising loss at Appalachian State last week. The Dukes have been dominant at home, where they remain undefeated this season. Additionally, JMU has the added confidence of having won last year’s matchup against Marshall 20-9, a result that saw its defense shine.

The Dukes' strong home form and motivation to finish the regular season on a high note give them the edge in this spot.

Take James Madison. Projected score: James Madison 28, Marshall 17.

My selection is on UTEP plus the points over New Mexico State at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State is coming off a convincing 36-21 win at Middle Tennessee State last week, a result that marked just its third victory of the season. However, a closer look reveals that the Aggies' other two wins came by a combined 10 points, with one of those coming against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State and the other against struggling Louisiana Tech. Now, as they wrap up their season at home in the Battle of I-10, the Aggies face a UTEP squad that should be eager to put up a fight despite its own challenges.

UTEP is fresh off a lopsided 56-0 loss to Tennessee, but that result was largely expected against a far superior opponent. Prior to that, the Miners had won two of their last four games and have shown resilience in spots this season. With this being their season finale, expect UTEP to come out motivated, especially in a rivalry game.

Take UTEP. Projected score: UTEP 24, New Mexico State 21.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Central Michigan at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Central Michigan earned a morale-boosting upset win over Western Michigan in its home finale last week, but it does little to change the trajectory of a disappointing season. Sitting at 3-7, the Chippewas are out of bowl contention and face a challenging matchup against Northern Illinois to close out their campaign.

Northern Illinois has had an up-and-down season but still has plenty to play for, needing a win to secure bowl eligibility. The Huskies delivered one of the season's most surprising upsets with a victory over Notre Dame in South Bend earlier this year, showcasing their potential when playing at their best. While inconsistency has been an issue, Northern Illinois possesses the talent to take control of this game against an overmatched Central Michigan squad.

Look for the Huskies to handle business in their regular-season finale.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 34, Central Michigan 17.

My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Auburn at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Alabama took a step back last week, suffering a humbling defeat at Oklahoma that snapped their three-game winning streak. Back at home in the Iron Bowl, expect the Crimson Tide to come out with purpose, eager to put last week’s disappointment behind them.

Auburn, meanwhile, has built some momentum with back-to-back wins and covers, including a thrilling 43-41 upset over Texas A&M. However, the Tigers haven’t faced a road test since late October and have only played three road games all season, which could make this environment a daunting challenge.

Alabama’s defense should tighten up against an Auburn offense that relies heavily on big plays, while the Tide’s balanced attack has the tools to exploit Auburn's vulnerabilities.

Look for Alabama to control the pace and pull away in the second half, securing a convincing victory in this rivalry matchup.

Take Alabama. Projected score: Alabama 38, Auburn 21.

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Georgia State at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina has struggled recently, dropping five of its last six games both SU and ATS. However, this represents a good spot for the Chanticleers to bounce back, as they face a Georgia State team that, despite a shocking upset win over Texas State last week, has endured a challenging season overall.

The Panthers’ victory in San Marcos was impressive, but it’s important to note that it followed a seven-game losing streak. With both teams out of bowl contention, motivation could play a key role here. Georgia State may find it difficult to maintain the intensity that fueled last week's surprise win, while Coastal Carolina will see this game as an opportunity to finish a tough season on a positive note.

The Chanticleers’ recent struggles have created some value, and I believe they can edge out a win in a competitive contest.

Take Coastal Carolina. Projected score: Coastal Carolina 27, Georgia State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Central Florida at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Both teams have struggled through disappointing seasons and have allowed significant points recently, but in this matchup, expect a more controlled and defensive-minded game. Utah, known for its solid defense, has been caught off guard by tough opponents, giving up 49 points to Colorado and 31 to Iowa State in its last two outings. Similarly, Central Florida has faced defensive lapses in recent weeks, allowing 35 points to Arizona State and 31 to West Virginia.

However, with both teams having nothing to lose and trying to finish the season strong, this should be a game where both teams focus on limiting mistakes and stepping up defensively. The result will likely be a lower-scoring affair, with both teams struggling to generate consistent offense.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Central Florida 20, Utah 17.

PLEASE NOTE: This play is on The Raiders plus the points (as per below writeup), not the Chiefs as indicated above. AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 3 pm ET on Friday.

Although the Raiders have been struggling, losing seven straight games and failing to cover in three consecutive contests, this is a divisional rivalry game that should bring out the best in them. Las Vegas will be looking for revenge after a 27-20 loss to Kansas City on October 27th and has historically played the Chiefs tough. In fact, the Raiders handed Kansas City an upset loss at home on Christmas Day last year, showing they can rise to the occasion in these matchups.

While Kansas City is a dominant 9-1 this season and favored in this spot, the Chiefs might not have the same level of motivation after a strong start to the year. The Raiders have plenty of incentive to battle hard, and their familiarity with Kansas City in close, hard-fought games gives them the confidence they can keep this one competitive.

This is a prime opportunity for the Raiders to show up in a big way, and with Kansas City potentially overlooking the challenge, the points should be enough to cover.

Take Las Vegas. Projected score: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Tulane at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Memphis enters this matchup without a chance to reach the AAC Championship Game, while Tulane has its spot secured to face Army next week. Despite Memphis’ offensive outburst in a 53-point performance against a struggling UAB defense last week, they’ll face a formidable challenge against Tulane. The Green Wave have allowed just nine points combined in their last three games, showcasing one of the nation’s top defenses. Ranked 17th nationally, Tulane has thrived on stifling opponents and controlling the pace of play.

Offensively, Tulane prefers a methodical approach, emphasizing time of possession and consistent, clock-draining drives. This style complements their defensive strategy and keeps games low-scoring. Memphis will find it difficult to replicate their recent offensive success against a much stronger opponent.

Last year’s meeting saw 52 total points, and with similar dynamics, another low-scoring game seems likely. Look for Tulane's defensive dominance and deliberate style to dictate the flow of this matchup.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Tulane 24, Memphis 17.

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Dallas is garnering significant betting attention as a home favorite following their impressive road victory over Washington last Sunday. However, this sets up as a potential letdown spot, particularly given their documented struggles at home this season, where consistency has been elusive. The Cowboys' offensive explosion last week felt more like an outlier, especially with Cooper Rush under center in place of the injured Dak Prescott.

On the other side, the Giants are coming off a low point after a disastrous showing against Tampa Bay. While their 7-point effort last Sunday was dismal, it could serve as a wake-up call for a team that has traditionally rebounded well from such performances. Third-string quarterback Drew Lock brings a fresh dynamic to their offense, and the Giants have added motivation, seeking revenge for a narrow 20-15 loss to Dallas in the season's first meeting.

Expect New York to fight hard in this divisional rematch, keeping it close and possibly pulling off the outright win.

Take New York. Projected score: New York 21, Dallas 20.

MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Kent State has endured a tough season, sitting winless at 0-11. While the Golden Flashes managed 17 points in last week’s game, they’ve been consistently stymied offensively, failing to score more than 21 points in five consecutive contests. Buffalo, on the other hand, has been riding high with three straight victories, clinching bowl eligibility last week. Despite the Bulls’ recent scoring success, they’re unlikely to need a big offensive output to handle Kent State in this spot.

Historical trends and current conditions further bolster the case for the 'under.' Last year’s matchup between these teams produced just 30 total points. Additionally, the game is set to be played in Buffalo under cold and windy conditions, likely hampering both teams' ability to move the ball effectively. With a struggling Kent State offense and Buffalo’s incentive to manage the game efficiently, a low-scoring affair appears likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Buffalo 27, Kent State 7.

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm ET on Sunday.

Philadelphia enters this matchup riding a six-game winning streak and benefits from extra rest after defeating Washington at home last Thursday. That victory extended their lead in the NFC East to two games, easing some of the urgency as they prepare for a Rams team locked in a much tighter division race. The Eagles have also covered the spread in back-to-back games, tying their season-long ATS streak, which suggests a potential regression could be due.

Meanwhile, the Rams come into this game off a solid win in New England and remain just one game behind Arizona in the NFC West. This matchup carries added importance for Los Angeles, as three of their next four games are on the road. Notably, this is a revenge spot for the Rams after losing last year's meeting 23-14. With Matthew Stafford guiding a capable offense and the defense poised to make key stops, the Rams have the tools to keep this one competitive. The inflated spread further enhances their value as an underdog.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Rams 24, Eagles 23.

NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

The Seahawks have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, including a 20-17 upset win over the 49ers last week in Santa Clara. However, Seattle's defense remains a concern, ranking in the bottom third of the league in total yards allowed per game. This could be an issue against an Arizona team that has scored 88 points over its last three games and is coming off a bye week, giving it extra time to prepare and recharge.

Defensively, Arizona has its own struggles, also ranking in the bottom third of the league in total yards allowed per game. That sets up a strong opportunity for Seattle to break out of its recent low-scoring trend, especially at home. Both teams’ defensive deficiencies, combined with Arizona’s recent offensive form, point toward a higher-scoring contest than the recent 'under' trends suggest.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Seattle 27, Arizona 24.

My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Despite the Giants’ ongoing struggles, which include five straight losses both SU and ATS, there’s value in backing them in this spot as significant underdogs. New York’s decision to release QB Daniel Jones puts the spotlight on Tommy DeVito, whose unpredictable style could give the Buccaneers’ vulnerable defense trouble. Tampa Bay enters off a bye week but has dropped four straight games and now shifts to the unfamiliar role of a road favorite.

While the Bucs have managed to cover the spread in back-to-back games, their defense has been a glaring weakness, ranking 31st in total yards allowed per game and 27th in points allowed. This matchup sets up as an opportunity for New York to stay competitive against a struggling Tampa Bay team that hasn’t proven it can consistently close out games.

Take New York. Projected score: Tampa Bay 24, New York 21.

My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Patriots may own a disappointing 3-8 record, but they’ve shown signs of improvement in recent weeks with rookie quarterback Drake Maye providing a spark. New England has split its last four games and nearly overcame the Rams last week, falling by just six points. It also played Miami close in the first meeting this season, losing by only five points.

The Dolphins are coming off an impressive blowout win over the Raiders, their second straight victory and third consecutive cover. However, with a short turnaround looming as they head to Lambeau Field to face Green Bay on Thanksgiving Night, this could be a tricky spot for Miami. New England's improving offense and ability to compete in close games make the Patriots a live underdog in this divisional matchup.

Take New England. Projected score: Miami 23, New England 20.

Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Detroit has been red-hot, winning eight straight games, including a dominant 52-6 win over Jacksonville last week. While the Lions have been impressive on the road, posting a 5-0 record away from home this season, the idea of them running the table on the road seems unlikely. This matchup comes just days before a Thanksgiving Day divisional clash against the Bears, which could make it a tricky spot for Detroit to maintain focus.

Indianapolis is coming off a gritty 28-27 road win against the Jets, led by a standout performance from QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have shown resilience this season, as none of their losses have come by more than 10 points. With their home crowd behind them and Detroit potentially looking ahead, the Colts should have the opportunity to keep this game close.

Take Indianapolis. Projected score: Detroit 27, Indianapolis 24.

Mountain West Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Boise State at 7 pm ET on Saturday.

Wyoming enters this game off a 24-10 loss at Colorado State last Saturday and will look to rebound in its home finale. The Cowboys have just two wins this season, so they’re already out of the Bowl picture, but they’ll be highly motivated to close out their home slate with a strong performance. Boise State has been impressive, winning eight straight games and moving up to 12th in the national rankings, but they’ll face a motivated and feisty Wyoming squad that will be eager for revenge after a 32-7 loss to the Broncos last year.

While Boise State is rolling, Wyoming has shown the ability to be competitive at home and could make this a tighter contest than expected. The Broncos have been solid, but this is a tough environment for them to cover such a big spread. Wyoming should be able to keep things close and potentially surprise Boise State with a stronger-than-expected effort.

Take Wyoming. Projected score: Boise State 31, Wyoming 17.

My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 2:30 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State enters this matchup in a slump, having dropped three straight games, including a 38-3 loss at Texas A&M last week. While the Aggies are winless on the road this season, they face a much less imposing opponent here and should find opportunities to get their offense back on track. This is their final road game before returning home for their season finale, which could provide added motivation to put up a strong effort.

Middle Tennessee State has been inconsistent and ineffective offensively, having failed to score more than 21 points in nine straight games. Their most recent outing, a 37-17 loss to Liberty, showed familiar struggles as they fell to 3-7 on the season. Even with extra preparation time coming off a bye week, the Blue Raiders' limited offensive ceiling remains a concern.

Last year's meeting saw New Mexico State come away with a hard-fought 13-7 victory, and while this season has presented challenges for both teams, the Aggies have shown they can compete against MTSU's defense. With the Blue Raiders continuing to struggle to generate points, the Aggies' ability to keep this game close makes them a solid underdog play.

Take New Mexico State. Projected score: Middle Tennessee State 17, New Mexico State 16.

My selection is on the 'over' between Rice and UAB at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Rice has seen the 'under' cash in four straight games, but this matchup against UAB could break that trend. The Owls’ offense has been inconsistent, but they face a Blazers defense that has struggled all season, allowing 31 points or more in eight of their 10 games. That provides an opportunity for Rice to find more success offensively than they’ve had in recent weeks.

UAB’s defense has been porous, giving up 53 points to Memphis last week and showing an inability to contain opponents throughout the season. On offense, UAB had shown some life prior to last week, scoring 23 or more points in three straight contests. Against a Rice defense that has struggled to contain better offenses, the Blazers should be able to contribute their share of scoring.

With both teams out of Bowl contention, this game could lack defensive intensity, paving the way for a higher-scoring contest. Neither defense has proven reliable, and with favorable conditions for both offenses, this matchup has the potential to exceed the total.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Rice 35, UAB 27.

My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Boston College at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

North Carolina has been on an offensive roll, winning three straight games and posting impressive point totals of 41, 35, and 31 in their most recent victories. With one more win needed for Bowl eligibility, the Tar Heels will be motivated to keep their high-scoring ways going in this crucial matchup. Boston College, while struggling defensively, has been more effective offensively in recent weeks, scoring 37 and 28 points in their last two games. However, the Eagles have been porous on defense, allowing 42, 31, 31, and 38 points in their last four games.

With both teams showing the potential for solid offensive production and Boston College’s defense struggling to contain opposing attacks, this game sets up for a high-scoring affair. North Carolina is likely to continue putting up points as they chase Bowl eligibility, while Boston College will need to score to keep pace in a potential shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: North Carolina 38, Boston College 28.

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Connecticut has been on a strong run, winning three straight games, including a solid 31-23 victory at UAB on November 9th. With six wins against FBS opponents this season, the Huskies are a much-improved team compared to their 2022 meeting with Syracuse, where they lost 48-14. Connecticut enters this matchup rested and will be looking to carry over the momentum from its recent success.

Syracuse, on the other hand, is in a tough spot after a long road trip across the country following a 33-25 win over California last Saturday. The Orange also have six wins against FBS teams and will wrap up their regular season at home next week against Miami. Syracuse may struggle to keep its focus after a grueling travel schedule, and Connecticut’s recent form gives them a good chance to keep the game close.

Take Connecticut. Projected score: Syracuse 27, Connecticut 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and UTSA at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Temple has been a poor offensive team all season, scoring 20 points or fewer in eight of its 10 games. In fact, the Owls have managed just 24 points combined in their last two contests. Last week’s 18-15 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic highlighted the Owls’ ongoing offensive struggles. They have struggled to generate consistent production, and their methodical style of play tends to grind games to a halt, which works against high-scoring outcomes.

On the other hand, UTSA has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, with the 'over' cashing in their last five games. However, these contests came against teams known for their shootout tendencies, such as Tulsa, Memphis, and North Texas. The Roadrunners’ offense, while potent, could face some challenges in this matchup, as Temple is likely to limit the pace and control the ball in an effort to keep the score down.

Given Temple’s offensive ineptitude and UTSA’s potential to be slowed down in a lower-scoring contest, this game sets up for fewer points than we’ve seen in UTSA's recent matchups.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: UTSA 34, Temple 13.

AFC North Game of the. Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

Pittsburgh has been on an impressive run, winning five straight games both straight up and against the spread, including a narrow 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week. The Steelers are currently 8-2 and hold a two-game lead in the AFC North. However, despite their excellent record, Pittsburgh’s offense has been inconsistent, and their games have often been decided by slim margins. Cleveland, on the other hand, has struggled with a 2-8 record, losing their last two games by blowout margins. While the Browns haven’t been consistent this season, this is a big primetime game for them, especially given the rivalry against Pittsburgh. Cleveland has historically played Pittsburgh tough in divisional matchups, and they’ll be motivated to keep this one close.

While the Steelers are the more successful team this season, Cleveland will bring extra intensity to this game in front of a national audience. Pittsburgh may face a letdown after their recent success, which could give Cleveland an opportunity to cover the spread in a close, hard-fought game.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Pittsburgh 13, Cleveland 12.

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Eastern Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Eastern Michigan enters this game needing to win out to become bowl eligible, making this matchup crucial. Despite a tough 35-10 loss at Ohio last week, the Eagles have been competitive and will be motivated to bounce back at home. Buffalo, on the other hand, has already secured six wins and will be looking ahead to their bowl eligibility, while also facing a winless Kent State next week. The Bulls have played well recently, but their 2-3 road record this season suggests they could struggle away from home against a hungry Eagles team.

Eastern Michigan's defense will look to stifle a Buffalo offense that has been up-and-down on the road. The Eagles have had success at home with a 3-2 record and will draw confidence from last season’s 24-11 victory over the Bulls. With Buffalo potentially distracted by their upcoming bowl scenario and Eastern Michigan playing with urgency, I expect the Eagles to cover the spread in this pivotal matchup.

Take Eastern Michigan. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 28, Buffalo 21.

My selection is on the over between Akron and Kent State at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday.

Akron comes into this game off a 29-16 loss to Northern Illinois, dropping their record to 2-8 on the season. Akron has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season, including against two-win FCS opponent Colgate, which points to potential for Kent State to score. Kent State, still winless at 0-10, has allowed 127 points over its last three games, showing vulnerability defensively. While Kent State hasn't been consistent offensively, they did manage to score 33 and 35 points in two home games earlier this season, indicating that they can put up points when facing a defense like Akron’s.

The rivalry between these two teams often leads to higher-scoring games, and last year’s meeting produced 58 total points. With both teams struggling defensively and Akron’s inability to shut down opponents, this matchup has the potential to hit the over. Both teams are capable of generating some offense, and the defensive weaknesses on both sides should create opportunities for scoring.

Take the over. Projected score: Akron 34, Kent State 27.

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm ET on Monday.

Dallas comes into this matchup struggling, having lost four straight games, including a lopsided 34-6 defeat to Philadelphia last Sunday. Despite their record, the Cowboys have a defense capable of keeping them competitive, particularly against a Houston team dealing with key injuries. Cooper Rush now leads the Dallas offense, and while he's not as dynamic as Dak Prescott, he brings stability and experience that could help the Cowboys improve their efficiency. Dallas will be motivated to snap its losing streak and build some momentum before facing Washington next week.

Houston is coming off a tough 26-23 loss to Detroit, falling to 6-4 on the season. While they get a boost with the return of WR Nico Collins, the absence of WR Stefon Diggs and DE Will Anderson will significantly impact both their offensive firepower and defensive strength. The Texans have been inconsistent this season, and while their record is better than Dallas', the injuries could level the playing field in this matchup. Take Dallas. Projected score: Houston 20, Dallas 17.

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bengals are coming off a chaotic, high-scoring loss to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, marking their third straight game to cash on the 'over.' Despite these recent results, Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent, and facing a stout Los Angeles defense could spell trouble for its scoring output.

The Chargers enter this game with a reputation for defensive prowess, ranking first in the league in points allowed per game and eighth in total yards allowed per contest. On the offensive side, Los Angeles has been pedestrian, ranking 19th in points per game and 21st in total yards per game. This combination of elite defense and middling offense has resulted in several lower-scoring contests, despite the team's recent 27-17 victory over Tennessee pushing the total 'over.'

With the Bengals likely to find difficulty breaking through the Chargers' top-ranked defense and Los Angeles continuing to lean on its methodical offensive approach, this matchup sets up well for a slower-paced, lower-scoring affair.

Projected score: Los Angeles 20, Cincinnati 17.