NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons enter this game 0-2 but have been competitive in both games, perhaps illustrating a tide-turning of sorts for this down-trodden franchise. After losing, but covering the spread, in a loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday, they'll be determined to earn a split on this road trip with this winnable date with the Seahawks. Seattle probably experienced the high point of its entire season back in Week 1 when it upset Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Night Football. We successfully faded the Seahawks last Sunday as they didn't even put up a fight in a lopsided loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. This is a mouth-watering matchup for the Falcons offense, which is looking for a breakout performance after running against two top-level defensive teams in the Saints and Rams over the last two weeks. The Seahawks are vulnerable all over the field on defense and that should open the door for a big afternoon for standout rookie WR Drake London and dare I say TE Kyle Pitts, who has been disappointing fantasy owners everywhere but carries a strong 'it's only a matter of time' narrative. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Seattle offense. Vulnerable at the back-end, Atlanta catches a break by facing Seahawks QB Geno Smith who simply hasn't shown the ability to throw his receivers open deep. I can't help but feel Pete Carroll will go back a run-first philosophy here after a far more pass-centric offensive gameplan than most expected through two weeks. I also can't help but feel it won't work as the Falcons have actually been stingy against the run despite game-script that would have indicated otherwise in Weeks 1 and 2. Take Atlanta (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*).

My selection is on South Carolina minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a brutal spot for Charlotte off a draining 42-41 win over Georgia State (a Georgia State squad that looked absolutely terrible in a similar spot, albeit on a shorter week, against Coastal Carolina on Thursday) last Saturday. The 49ers don't play a lick of defense, having been lit up for 41+ points in all four games to date this season and now make the trip to face a South Carolina squad that will be looking to dummy someone after dropping consecutive blowout decisions against powerful Arkansas and Georgia squads. Keep in mind, these two teams have a common opponent this season as the Gamecocks boat-raced Georgia State by a 35-14 score back in Week 1 while the 49ers needed everything they had in the tank to prevail by a single point last week. South Carolina has had a major problem stopping the run this season but Charlotte wouldn't seem to pose a serious threat in that regard. The 49ers did run for 130+ yards back in Week 1 against FCS squad William & Mary but they needed 37 attempts to get there. This one gets away from the visiting Niners. Take South Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Miami at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think this is a sneaky-tough spot for Miami as it returns home licking its wounds following a 17-9 loss against Texas A&M to host Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders season got start on the wrong foot as they were routed 44-7 on the road against first-year FBS upstart James Madison. MTSU's offense couldn't stay on the field, going three-and-out on its first five drives and its young defense quickly wore down as a result, with the floodgates opening early. We've seen both units settle down over the last two games as the Blue Raiders delivered consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado State and FCS squad Tennessee State. I like some of the pieces MTSU has in place offensively with QB Chase Cunningham back healthy, not to mention a solid wide receiving corps and what appears to be a capable running back in Frank Peasant. Defensively, there are holes to fill but the Blue Raiders can ratchet up the pressure up front and I'm not convinced that Miami can take advantage of its weaknesses in the secondary. MTSU had a miserable time containing James Madison dual-threat QB Todd Centeio but it will deal with a true pocket-passer in Tyler Van Dyke this week. Albeit in a tough matchup against an angry Texas A&M defense, Van Dyke didn't look the same without his early season go-to guy WR Xavier Restrepo last week. Restrepo is sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury. Off the emotional primetime loss to A&M and with ACC play getting rolling with a date against currently undefeated North Carolina next week, I see this as a 'win and move on' type of spot for the Hurricanes as they look to effectively shorten the game and avoid any more key injuries. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*).

My selection is on Temple minus the points over UMass at 2 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in Temple's ugly 16-14 home loss against Rutgers last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Owls as they stay home for a winnable matchup against UMass. Temple is 1-2 to start the season but can take some positives away from its last two games, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Over their last five quarters of football, the Owls have yielded just one offensive touchdown, that coming early in last week's game against Rutgers. Meanwhile, we've at least seen the Owls show some signs of consistency on offense with QB E.J. Warner taking over. He's completed 33-of-50 passes for 388 yards, three touchdowns and just one interception since relieving an injured (and ineffective) D'Wan Mathis. Believe it or not, this is a smash spot for the Temple offense against a UMass squad that has given up points at will against anyone with a pulse this season. Back in Week 1, the Minutemen allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 25 minutes against a mediocre Tulane offense. They were even worse in their next game, yielding six touchdowns in the first 35 minutes against Toledo. They earned a reprieve against FCS squad Stony Brook last week and performed admirably but I expect them to come back to Earth again here, even against a struggling Temple offense. This is obviously a key spot for Temple as it will play its next two games on the road against Memphis and UCF before returning home for no gimme against Tulsa. While a Bowl appearance probably isn't in the cards this year, the Owls can at least keep hope alive with a victory this week. Given the state of the UMass offense - note that last week the Minutemen scored a touchdown in the game's first five minutes against Stony Brook but their offense never reached the end zone again the rest of the way. Prior to that they managed only two offensive touchdowns in their first two games - I'm confident Temple can score enough offensively and let its defense take care of the rest in what should be a lopsided, albeit likely low-scoring result. Take Temple (8*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with Buffalo plus the points in its tough road loss against Coastal Carolina last Saturday as it fell to 0-3 on the season. The Bulls have certainly faced a tough early schedule with games against Maryland and aforementioned CCU on the road and Holy Cross, a top FCS squad, at home. Here, I look for the Bulls to give Eastern Michigan all it can handle, noting that the Eagles are coming off their biggest victory in years, 30-21 on the road against Arizona State last Saturday (we cashed our free play on the 'under' in that game). EMU pulled off that stunning upset victory thanks to 259 rushing yards from RB Samson Evans. I'm chalking that up as an outlier performance as Evans had been held to just 108 yards on 25 carries in the first two games this season. The strength of the Bulls defense is at the linebacker position and I'm confident they can keep Evans under wraps on Saturday. Note that EMU lost QB Taylor Powell to a shoulder injury in last Saturday's win. He's questionable to play this week. If he can't go, it will be Austin Smith under center. He's more of a dual-threat than Powell but I believe Buffalo matches up better against that type of quarterback with their athleticism on defense. Bulls QB Cole Snyder has been under duress for much of the season so far but has held up relatively well. Note that EMU hasn't shown any semblance of a pass rush with just one sack through three games. In a game that I feel will be played closer to the vest than expected (I feel the posted total has been set too high as well), I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Take Buffalo (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Nevada at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won fading Air Force last Friday night as the Falcons lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a tough setting in Laramie, Wyoming. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Air Force (we won with the Falcons just two games back against Colorado) as it returns to Colorado Springs to host a disjointed Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are an even 2-2 to start the season but their outlook is by no means promising. We won with the 'under' in their season-opening 23-12 win on the road against a bad New Mexico State squad in Week 0 but even in that victory there was reason for concern. Nevada didn't score until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and after reaching the end zone with less than a minute remaining in the first half, it failed to record another touchdown in the game's final 30 minutes. After routing a weak Texas State squad the next week, the Wolf Pack got absolutely throttled by FCS squad Incarnate Word 55-41. That final score was actually flattering for the Wolf Pack as Incarnate Word led 55-27 before allowing a couple of late scores. Shane Illingworth took over at quarterback against Iowa last Saturday and proceeded to complete just 14-of-28 passes for 82 yards. Without a dominant offensive line or ground attack, there's just little for this Wolf Pack offense to hang its hat on nearly a month into the season. Defensively, Nevada allowed a punchless Iowa attack to score a pair of first quarter touchdowns last week and again, we learned a lot about this unit in that game against Incarnate Word (the Cardinals scored four offensive touchdowns in the game's first 36 minutes). Air Force will obviously be in a foul mood off last week's defeat and the Falcons are well-positioned to bounce back here at home where they're 2-0 on the campaign, registering 48-17 and 41-10 victories. The last time we saw them here they held Colorado off the scoreboard until just over four minutes into the second quarter and then didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way. Credit Wyoming's defense for bottling up the Falcons option-based offense last week but I don't expect Nevada to do the same, noting that AFA scored 41 points in a wild victory over the Wolf Pack last November. Take Air Force (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Vikings blew out the perennial NFC North front-running Packers last week while the Eagles held on for a three-point victory over the Lions in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. While many are high on the Vikings and believe they can contend for an NFC North title this season, I'm not of that same opinion. Yes, I like some of the pieces they have in place, namely RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson but this is a team that has its share of flaws, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Eagles mean business this year - that was evident when they went out and got WR A.J. Brown and even CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson just prior to start of the season. QB Jalen Hurts has already shown tremendous chemistry with Brown. I'm also anticipating a jump in production in second-year wideout DeVonta Smith this year. Then you have underrated RB Miles Sanders running behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Needless to say, the Eagles offense should be a handful for the Vikings on Monday. While Justin Jefferson is an elite, arguably unstoppable wide receiver, the Eagles do have plenty of bodies to throw at him. With veteran Adam Thielen on the decline, Jefferson is going to continue to get considerable attention from opposing defenses. I'm not convinced the Vikings are well-suited to play from behind, which I expect them to be doing for much of Monday's contest. Note that the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points the last 68 times they've played at home after scoring 30+ points in a game, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers go from a nightmarish opening week matchup with the Vikings in Minnesota to a favorable home date with the rebuilding Bears on Sunday night in Week 2. I'm confident we'll see Green Bay right the ship with a convincing win on Sunday night. Take Chicago's opening week victory over the 49ers in torrential rain and awful field conditions with a grain of salt. Yes, the Bears deserve credit for staging the upset but weather was the great equalizer. Here, Chicago won't be so fortunate. Green Bay is expected to have RT Elgton Jenkins and possibly WR Allen Lazard back for this game - both were obviously sorely missed in Minnesota last week. This is a dream bounce-back spot for the Packers dynamic backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon as they run right at what projects as a much weaker Bears defensive front than we've seen in recent seasons. It's the Packers defense that has me most confident about this matchup as they should feast on a woeful Bears offensive line that was effectively hidden by last week's poor weather conditions. Especially as Chicago projects to be playing from behind for much of this game, Green Bay's defense should be able to pin back its ears and tee off on Justin Fields for four quarters. Take Green Bay (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams couldn't have looked any worse in their season-opening blowout loss at the hands of the Bills. Now they've had a long week to prepare for a much more favorable matchup against the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta was ultra-competitive but fell just short in its opener against the division-rival Saints last Sunday. It seems that the Falcons still haven't figured out a way to consistently utilize TE Kyle Pitts to his full potential. Until they do, I consider them a fade as they have few other offensive pieces capable of keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night. Yes, jack-of-all-trades RB Cordarelle Patterson had another productive performance last Sunday but it was all for not in a loss. I expect QB Marcus Mariota to be under duress all afternoon long on Sunday and that should lead to plenty of mistakes and potentially turnovers. The Rams offense is far better than it showed against the Bills smothering zone scheme in Week 1. There's talk that QB Matt Stafford isn't 100% healthy but that had little to do with the ugly performance against the Bills. I'm confident we'll see Stafford and the Rams explosive offensive bounce back here. Note that the Saints got highly-productive performances from their WR duo of Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas against the Falcons defense last Sunday in Atlanta and I expect more of the same from the Rams WR combination of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson here. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

This is a smash spot for the 49ers as they return home following last week's ugly loss in Chicago to host the Seahawks, playing on a short week following Monday's emotionally-thrilling but draining win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Seattle victory on Monday had more to do with Denver miscues than anything else. Credit the Seahawks to getting off to a strong start in that game, jumping ahead 7-0 on their first drive and never really looking back from there. This game figures to feature a much different game script as the 49ers should be able to impose their will on both sides of the football. Trey Lance critics have been out in full force this week. It's unfair really as few quarterbacks would have been able to find much success in last Sunday's miserable weather (and field) conditions in Chicago. I anticipate Lance looking much more comfortable back at home this Sunday and with a strong performance should stave off calls for Jimmy G for at least one more week. We're always looking to fade teams off emotional highs early in the season and that's certainly the case with the Seahawks - a team that likely experienced their 'Super Bowl' on Monday night. Expect Geno Smith to be brought back to Earth by the 49ers vaunted defensive front at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon, noting that the 49ers are 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.8 points in that situation. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can’t help but feel the wrong team is favored in this game as the 0-1 Panthers head to the Meadowlands to challenge the 1-0 Giants. Carolina fell on a last-second field goal at home against the Browns last Sunday. I actually felt QB Baker Mayfield performed better than expected in his debut with his new team. RB Christian McCaffrey was a non-factor but that changes this week as I expect him to eat in the short passing game. The Giants were already depth-shy in the secondary and will be forced to go without their number two corner Aaron Robinson this week. Like McCaffrey, I expect WR D.J. Moore to have a big bounce-back performance here. Saquon Barkley absolutely went off for the G-Men in last week’s win in Tennessee, virtually willing them to victory. I still don’t believe Daniel Jones is the answer at quarterback and as much as head coach Brian Daboll would like to limit his quarterback’s impact on the game, I look for the Panthers defense to feast on Jones this week. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are in tough due to injuries on Sunday afternoon as they'll be without Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr., among others. This was already going to be a tough spot for Indianapolis as it comes off a highly-disappointing tie on the road against Houston last Sunday. The Jags didn't look great in a season-opening loss in Washington but I do think we'll see gradual improvement from them on both sides of the football under new head coach Doug Pederson. Here, in their home opener there's reason for optimism as they face a depleted Colts squad that is ripe for the picking in Week 2. Already severely limited with his supporting cast, the absence of Pittman looms large over the Colts offense led by Matt Ryan. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is capable of shouldering even more of the load but you can be sure the Jags will be stacking the box to bottle him up. Taylor is a much better running back playing from ahead than behind (as are most backs) and I expect that to be evident on Sunday afternoon. Take Jacksonville (8*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

With T.J. Watt sidelined and Najee Harris severely banged-up the Steelers just don't have a lot of redeeming qualities as they return home off last Sunday's stunning upset win over the defending AFC champion Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the Steelers for gutting out a win in that overtime game but let's face it, the result was gift-wrapped by the Bengals, who looked completely out of sorts on both sides of the football. Here, the Steelers have the benefit of returning home but do so against a Patriots squad that has a foul taste in its mouth off last Sunday's divisional road loss in Miami. Whiel the Pats offense certainly has plenty of warts, I don't think it is as bad as it is being made out to be. Xavien Howard blanketed Devante Parker in last Sunday's game and Mac Jones struggled to find consistent options to pass to and the ground game wasn't able to thrive trailing for much of the contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Patriots defense and ground attack comes up big against a Steelers squad that quite simply doesn't match up well on either side of the football. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still a mess and I have little faith in QB Mitchell Trubisky holding down the starting job for more than the first few games this season. Defensively, T.J. Watt is the Steelers engine and his absence can't be understated. The Pittsburgh secondary came up big last Sunday but that had a lot to do with Watt pressuring Joe Burrow into ill-advised throws. Both of these teams probably deserve to be 1-1 through two weeks and I'm confident that's how it will play out. Take New England (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Diego State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

After dropping a tough 29-26 decision against Florida at The Swamp back in Week 1, Utah needed a big victory to feel good about itself again last Saturday and it delivered just that to the tune of a 73-7 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Now comes a tougher matchup against San Diego State but I’m confident the Utes will be up to the challenge. Utah left no doubt in last week’s contest, scoring five offensive touchdowns (and adding a field goal) in a 14-minute span in the second quarter. I liked the way the Utes continued to pour it on late in that game, adding three more touchdowns in the final 23 minutes, even with the outcome having long been decided. There were certainly some signs of rust offensively, particularly early on against Florida but that has clearly been taken care of. San Diego State opened with a 38-20 drubbing at the hands of Arizona before rebounding with a 38-7 win over Idaho State last week. Note that it took the Aztecs nearly 10 minutes before they scored their first offensive touchdown in that win over Idaho State and that came on the sort of defensive breakdown you just won’t see from Utah. There was also a stretch where the Aztecs were held out of the end zone for 35 minutes in that contest - not encouraging considering that was against the likes of FCS squad Idaho State. The jury is still out as to whether former Virginia Tech standout QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. San Diego State always brings a solid defense to the table but here it will be dealing with its toughest offensive opponent to date, and we’ll note that it yielded an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in its season-opener against Arizona prior to last week’s victory. Take Utah (10*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Kansas rolls into this showdown with Houston sporting a perfect 2-0 record off last week's stunning overtime win on the road against West Virginia. I expect the Jayhawks to have their hands full against the 1-1 Houston Cougars on Saturday though. Kansas actually fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter against West Virginia last week and I think the Mountaineers believed it was going to be a cakewalk at that point. The Jayhawks would go on to yield another touchdown early in the second quarter - they allowed three touchdowns before the game was even 17 minutes old. From there, Kansas' offense picked up the pace and was a thorn in the Mountaineers side all game long. Of course West Virginia's defense might just be awful given the way it has performed so far this season. It's a different story with Houston. The Cougars are battle-tested after defeating an excellent UTSA squad on the road in overtime in Week 1 and then dropping a tough overtime decision on the road against Texas Tech last week. There were positives to take away from both games. Of course the offense will be fine. The defense, however, despite allowing 68 points, has fared well. The Cougars didn't allow an explosive UTSA offense to score until just shy of two minutes into the second quarter in Week 1. After allowing a Roadrunners touchdown with around four minutes left in the third quarter, Houston held them out of the end zone for the rest of regulation time (and the first overtime). Last week, the Cougars held the Red Raiders out of the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter. Texas Tech had a late touchdown in the final minute of the first half but from there didn't reach the end zone again until the first overtime. You get the picture. I expect Kansas to be taken out of its element in this one. Houston is familiar with facing dual-threat quarterbacks already this season and I don't expect it to be blindsided by Kansas QB Jalon Daniels. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Wisconsin minus the points over New Mexico State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We successfully faded Wisconsin in its outright loss to Washington State last Saturday. That result didn’t actually come as nearly as big of a surprise to us as it did to most. Here, the Badgers have an ideal ‘get right’ matchup against lowly New Mexico State and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and lay the points. New Mexico State is 0-3 to start the season, scoring just 25 points in those three contests. QB Diego Pavia has been the Aggies leading rusher in all three games which is concerning when you consider he’s topped out at 69 rushing yards - that coming in last week’s loss to UTEP. I question whether the Aggies can do enough offensively to stay on the field and give their defense a break against Wisconsin, which should absolutely own the battle in the trenches. In a similar matchup at Minnesota two games back, New Mexico State allowed 485 total yards including just shy of 300 on the ground in a 38-0 loss. Look for the Badgers backfield tandem of Allen and Mellusi to absolutely go off and pace the lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Wisconsin (8*).

My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Ohio at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State may not have looked overly impressive in an ugly 10-7 victory over rival Iowa last Saturday but that’s just how that series goes. Keep in mind, the Cyclones scored three offensive touchdowns before their season-opener against FCS squad Southeast Missouri State was a quarter-and-a-half old and they’ll be up against a similarly-porous defense here. Ohio got its season started with an impressive 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic as QB Kurtis Rourke had the game of his life, completing 27-of-34 passes for 345 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing score. The Bobcats were quickly brought back to Earth in a 46-10 rout at the hands of Penn State last Saturday. Even after the Nittany Lions brought in the backups up big in the third quarter, they still managed to tack on three more touchdowns. Expect the Bobcats defense to once again have its hands full here. While Breece Hall is no longer storming out of the backfield for Iowa State, Jirehl Brock has impressed, running for 204 yards and a score on 43 carries. WR Xavier Hutchinson is already in midseason form, hauling in 19 catches of 226 yards and four touchdowns and should obliterate an overmatched Ohio secondary here. The Cyclones defense takes care of the rest. Take Iowa State (9*).

My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 home loss against Holy Cross last Saturday but let’s not get too down on the Bulls for that upset loss. Note that Holy Cross is one of the better FCS teams in the country and Buffalo was actually favored by less than a touchdown in that game. So now Buffalo goes on the road with an 0-2 record (it lost its opener by a 31-10 score at Maryland) to face undefeated Coastal Carolina. I expect the Bulls to give the Chanticleers all they can handle, just as they did in last year’s matchup between these two teams - a 28-25 Coastal Carolina victory in Buffalo. Note that while the Bulls ended up giving up 37 points in last week’s loss, they actually held Holy Cross off the scoreboard entirely for the game’s first 25 minutes. After jumping ahead 21-7 late in the second quarter it almost seemed like the Bulls felt they could shift into cruise control and be gifted a victory. It’s not as if Buffalo had its doors blown off in a tough road game at Maryland in Week 1. It gave up a couple of early touchdowns in that contest but held the Terrapins to just two more touchdowns over the game’s final 47 minutes. Coastal Carolina is off to a perfect 2-0 start after pulling out a win over FCS squad Gardner-Webb thanks to a late touchdown last Saturday. The Chanticleers actually didn’t score an offensive touchdown until past the midway mark of the second quarter in that game and that only came thanks to being gifted excellent field position on a muffed kickoff. While a 38-28 win over Army in the season-opener looks impressive at first glance, it’s important to keep in mind that the Black Knights have been a sieve defensively so far this season. As is the case with a lot of upstart schools that find some success, Coastal Carolina had to deal with plenty of key departures in the offseason and while this is still a very talented football team, I’m not convinced it will prove to be the same juggernaut we’ve seen over the last two seasons. Take Buffalo (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Air Force at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Air Force in its rout of Colorado last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Falcons as they head to Laramie to take on Wyoming on Friday. This projects are a relatively low-scoring game with a total in the mid-to-high 40's, which obviously favors the Cowboys catching north of two touchdowns. Air Force has averaged 27.8 points the last 67 times it has played with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Note that these teams match up every year in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has scored more than 28 points just once in the last 14 meetings. The only time it did so it still scored 'only' 31 points. That might not be enough to cover the number here. Wyoming already has three games under its belt and seems to have found its identity, pounding the football with a terrific ground game led by RB Titus Swen. You can run on this Air Force defense noting that it has allowed FCS squad Northern Iowa and Colorado to each gain exactly 119 rushing yards, despite negative game script for both of those teams in lopsided contests in favor of the Falcons. Run the football, move the chains and effectively shorten the game. That has to be the gameplan for the Cowboys here and I believe it's one they can execute. When playing on the road off an ATS win, Air Force has outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.2 points (67-game sample size). Take Wyoming (10*).

AFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've actually seen this line float down to the key number of -7 since opening. Last year, the Texans were a popular fade in Week 1 as they hosted the Jaguars. What did Houston do? It blew the doors off of its hapless opponent, crushing Jacksonville bettors in the process (myself included). It's a much different story this year. The general consensus is that the arrow is pointing up in Houston with seemingly only positive news coming out of camp and the preseason. I see this as a tough opening week matchup for the Texans, however, as they host the Colts and their new-look offense run by veteran QB Matt Ryan. I say new-look but it should be more of the same for Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor once again the focal point. He absolutely ripped through the Texans in two meetings last season, gaining over 300 yards on 47 carries while also finding the end zone four times. That's not to say the Colts can't beat the Texans through the air as well. Houston's weakness on defense should lie in the secondary, where it used an early draft pick on CB Derek Stingley. While the Colts passing game doesn't look all that imposing at first glance, guys like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Mo Alie-Cox have splash potential here. Houston's offense is going to be better this year, I'm confident of that as QB Davis Mills settles into his first full season as starter. This isn't the game where we see it though, at least not in my opinion, as the Colts defense put the clamps on Mills last year and should have little trouble doing so again here. Note that key run-stopper Shaquille Leonard was a full participant in Colts practice on Wednesday. While the Indianapolis defense does leave a lot to be desired at the back-end, its zone scheme works in its favor against a limited Texans receiving corps headlined by Brandin Cooks. There will be spots where we can successfully back Houston in an underdog role, likely sooner rather than later, but not this week. Take Indianapolis (10*).

My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Tulsa at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Northern Illinois proved to be the very definition of a 'tough out' last season, culminating with a lopsided victory in the MAC Championship Game followed by a gutsy 47-41 loss against a tremendous Coastal Carolina team during Bowl season. The Huskies didn't look all that impressive in a 34-27 season-opening victory against FCS squad Eastern Illinois last week but there were some positives to take away. Northern Illinois' offensive line figures to be a strength with plenty of experience returning and that held true in Week 1 as QB Rocky Lombardi was only sacked once and unlike last year, wasn't forced to run all that much (he had just one rush attempt in the game). There are questions around who will replace RB Jay Ducker but Harrison Waylee looked like a fine candidate last week, gaining 83 yards and adding a touchdown on 14 carries. The Huskies didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter against EIU last week. The fact that they gave up a pair of fourth quarters touchdowns won't sit well, however, and I expect a little more of a 'killer instinct' from the NIU defense here. Tulsa suffered a tough 40-37 double-overtime loss at Wyoming last week. Unlike NIU, Tulsa needs to rework its entire offensive line and that appeared to be a major problem last Saturday as it gave up four sacks in the loss. While the Tulsa defense actually held up better than it showed on paper (Wyoming scored only two offensive touchdowns in regulation time), it was also up against a Cowboys offense that looked putrid the week previous against Illinois. The Golden Hurricane defense will be taking a step up in class here. While Tulsa desperately needs a win here in its home opener, I simply feel that it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Northern Illinois (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Houston at 4 pm et on Saturday.

While Houston enters this game nationally-ranked I believe Texas Tech being installed as the favorite is warranted. The Cougars barely pulled out a 37-35 win over Texas-San Antonio last Saturday. While the Roadrunners were going to be a formidable opponent regardless, there was reason for concern around Houston coming out of that contest. The Cougars didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter and then proceeded to allow three consecutive UTSA touchdowns to fall behind 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. While they did ultimately wake up and rally, they also allowed UTSA to march down the field in just 20 seconds and kick a game-tying field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a shaky performance all around from Houston. Texas Tech on the other hand looked like a well-oiled machine in a 63-10 rout of FCS squad Murray State. The Red Raiders did lose QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury in the victory but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and completed 14-of-17 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns in relief. He saw plenty of playing time during his freshman season last year and I'm confident the offense will keep rolling along with Shough sidelined. Even with third-string QB Behren Morton in the game in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the Red Raiders were still able to tack on another touchdown. Texas Tech defeated Houston 38-21 in last year's meeting at AT&T Stadium. As much as Houston would like to exact its revenge here, I believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force as it looks to improve to 2-0 on the season after last week's 48-17 rout of FCS squad Northern Iowa. The Falcons offense appeared to be in midseason form in that contest, scoring six touchdowns and racking up just shy of 700 yards of total offense. Colorado's defense actually held up as well as could have been expected, at least through the first three quarters, but still lost by a 38-13 score against TCU last Saturday, at home no less. Concerning was the fact that the Buffaloes had no response to TCU's halftime adjustments on offense, allowing four second half touchdowns, including three in an eight-minute span when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Offensively, Colorado didn't come up with a touchdown until the game was completely out of hand (the Horned Frogs led 38-6 at the time) in the game's final two minutes. Air Force's Week 1 victory could have been even more lopsided were it not for it allowing two late scores in the fourth quarter. I think that lack of focus on the defensive side of the football late actually helps our cause here and the Falcons know they'll have to display more of a killer instinct against a tougher opponent than they faced last week. These two teams last met in 2019 with Air Force prevailing by a 30-23 score. The talent gap has widened since in my opinion. While the Falcons do lose plenty of key pieces from last year's team, particularly on defense, I'm not convinced Colorado has the offense, which still lacks a true leader at quarterback, to take advantage. Take Air Force (9*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's time to start giving Wazzou the respect it deserves. The Cougars have gone Bowling in six of the last seven seasons. They're a profitable 33-22 ATS the last 55 times they've checked in as an underdog priced between +10.5 and +21, as is the case here. While last week's narrow 24-17 victory over Idaho was unimpressive, I'm willing to give the Cougars a mulligan as they're working in a new offense with a number of new pieces. There were positives to take away. The ground game got rolling with former Wisconsin RB Nakia Watson gaining 117 yards on just 18 carries while also hauling in a couple of catches for 17 yards. Once QB Cam Ward settled in, he threw for three touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. There was a stretch where Washington State scored on three consecutive drives. Three lost fumbles contributed to the low-scoring result but that can be cleaned up. It's the Cougars defense that has the potential to be special this year in my opinion. While it came against lowly Idaho, Washington State did rack up seven sacks to go along with a pair of interceptions in last week's victory. The secondary might be the weak spot early on but does Wisconsin have the type of offense to take advantage? The Badgers rolled to a 38-0 rout of FCS squad Illinois State in their season-opener. Note that the offense didn't reach the end zone until early in the second quarter in that contest (Wisconsin did score on a pick-six late in the first quarter). As usual, QB Graham Mertz was little more than a game manager with RB Braelon Allen doing much of the heavy lifting, running for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (96 of those yards came on one touchdown run). While I'm not about to call for an outright upset, I do think the Cougars will be a 'tough out' on Saturday afternoon in Madison. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Louisville at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While it garnered little attention leading up to last week's season-opener, UCF looks like the real deal here in 2022. The Knights kicked off their campaign with a resounding 56-10 win over FCS squad South Carolina State. While the opposition in that game left a lot to be desired there was still a lot to like about the Knights performance. It took them less than a quarter to jump ahead by three touchdowns and while the offense was humming, I was equally impressed by the defense. UCF held South Carolina State out of the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter and didn't yield another score after that. Now comes an admittedly tougher matchup against Louisville on Friday night at the Bounce House. The Cardinals are coming off a demoralizing season-opening loss at Syracuse and while it's extremely early you can't help but feel head coach Scott Satterfield's days as sideline chief could be numbered. Louisville couldn't muster any sort of offensive attack in that loss, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the first quarter but then not coming up with a single score the rest of the way. I also didn't like the way the defense folded in the fourth quarter, allowing a pair of touchdowns when the game was still in reach. Noting that Louisville took last year's meeting between these two teams in Kentucky, I look for the revenge-minded Knights to get some payback here. Take Central Florida (10*).

My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I see Mississippi State as a program on the way up in the SEC, but one that isn't being talked about nearly enough. This is a very manageable opening week matchup against a Memphis squad that needs to replace too many key parts on both sides of the football.

Yes, Memphis will have Seth Henigan back at QB but you don't get better replacing the likes of WR Calvin Austin and TE Sean Dykes. The Tigers offense will likely be fine but it's going to take some time to ramp up and this is a nightmarish Week 1 road tilt.

Mississippi State returns the bulk of the talent that led to a promising season on defense a year ago. The potential is there for this group to be even better in 2022.

Of course, the Bulldogs offense is the real star of the show with Mike Leach getting this unit up to speed under the guidance of QB Will Rogers - who I consider to be one of the more underrated passers in the nation. The ground game may not be all that explosive but the potential is there to be better working behind an offensive line that returns the interior. I expect that o-line to bully a relatively green defensive front. Take Mississippi State (8*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Army plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday.

It was a tremendous run for Coastal Carolina, going an incredible 14-2 over the last two seasons. Prior to that we saw three consecutive 2-6 campaigns from the Chanticleers as they made the adjustment to life in FBS. While they're unlikely to return to those depths again, there's simply too much turnover to instill much confidence entering the 2022 campaign. I see this as a tough opening week matchup against an experienced Army squad that will continue its ascension this year.

The Black Knights are no doubt still stinging from last December's loss to Navy but they responded with a huge Bowl victory over Missouri and now draw an opponent that will certainly have their full attention to start this season.

Army returns the majority of the offense that rolled through the opposition last year but I believe the defense could be the key. The Black Knights got torched through the air in 2021 but now the seondary returns a ton of experience and the performance of that unit could be the difference-maker between a good and a great 2022 season. The good news here is that Coastal Carolina is working in some new pieces at wide receiver after losing a ton of talent from last year's offense. While the experience at quarterback helps the Chanticleers cause with Grayson McCall back in the fold, his supporting cast might take some time to come around.

Coastal Carolina is forced to make wholesales changes to its linebacking corps this season and that hurts in a matchup like this. Look for Army's triple-option to get rolling and ultimately help the Black Knights pull away for a key road victory to open the season. Take Army (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

There's a long line of Super Bowl underdogs that currently own rings. Just last year the Bucs blasted the Chiefs in an underdog role. We're not all that far removed from the Eagles upsetting Tom Brady's Patriots. The Broncos beat the Panthers as 5.5-point underdogs in Peyton Manning's swan song. I grew up watching my favorite team at the time, John Elway's Denver Broncos upset Brett Favre and the Packers. And of course who could forget the Patriots beating the Greatest Show on Turf to earn Tom Brady's first ring, or Eli and the Giants upsetting Tom and the Patriots and spoiling their undefeated season. That's all to say, there's certainly no reason to count out the 'underdog' Bengals here as they head into 'enemy territory' (I use that term loosely in this case) to take on the favored Rams in Los Angeles on Sunday. I'll be honest, I didn't expect Cincinnati to be here. In fact, I didn't expect it to last beyond the Divisional Round. But this is a team that has absolutely put together something special, playing its best football at the most critical time, just as we've seen from virtually all of the previous Super Bowl winners. The Rams are certainly a formidable opponent but I actually like the matchup for the Bengals. Yes, Cincinnati's offensive line has been under fire all season, and certainly in these playoffs. It will undoubtedly be under heavy duress at times on Sunday. But this is a unit did take a step in the right direction against the Chiefs and with two full weeks to prepare for this game, I'm confident the Bengals can come up with a scheme to keep Joe Burrow upright, or at least give him some time to take advantage of some of the matchup advantages they do possess through the air against anyone other than Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the field. Cincinnati doesn't have the 'name' talent on defense, but this is a group that has gotten stronger and I believe one that will benefit from facing a Rams offense that doesn't boast all that consistent of a ground attack. And finally, on the biggest stage of all, give me Joe Burrow - yes, even in just his second NFL season, his first full one at that after he suffered a devastating injury last season - over Matt Stafford. You can be sure Burrow is aware that these opportunities don't always come around again. Just ask Dan Marino. The Bengals are here and I look for them to capitalize. For further support, note that the Rams are a horrid 3-12 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.0 points going back to last season, outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average in that spot. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone seems to be buying what the Rams are selling following last Sunday's big win over the Bucs in Tampa. I'm just not convinced we'll see Sean McVay exercise his own demons against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers on Sunday. First of all, home field advantage is seemingly once again being factored in here, even though we're more than likely to see more red and gold than blue and yellow in the crowd at So-Fi Stadium on Sunday. Not that it matters anyway as the 49ers walked into rather severe conditions in ice cold, snowy Green Bay last Saturday and came away victorious even after things looked extremely dire late. That's what I like about this 49ers squad - they don't quit. There's no question the Niners are limited here with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries. He's not the only one banged-up as Trent Williams is questionable to play at all due to an ankle injury although I can't see him sitting this one out. They've been game-planning around those limitations for weeks now, and I believe they're more than comfortable operating as such here as well. I quite simply have more faith in the Niners than I do in the Rams right now, noting that they're on an incredible 4-0 SU run in an underdog role - a streak that started with a win over the Rams on Monday Night Football back in mid-November. The fact that we're able to grab north of a field goal is an added bonus. Take San Francisco (7*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

This game obviously has the makings of an instant classic. I believe we're getting the Chiefs at a discount here after Buffalo got the monkey off its back with a blowout win here at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season. The Bills offense was unstoppable on that night but the Chiefs defense was playing awful football at the time, having opened the season allowing 29, 36, 30 and 30 points in their first four games. While the schedule has certainly played a role, Kansas City enters this contest having given up 21 points or less in nine of 13 games since that loss to the Bills. Buffalo played a near perfect game, particularly on offense, against the division rival Patriots last Saturday. I don't expect it to come close to matching that level of efficiency here. Most are looking at this game as a 'changing of the guard' in the AFC but I don't believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are done yet. They obviously have unfinished business of their own after a poor showing against Tom Brady and the Bucs in last year's Super Bowl. I have a lot of respect for the Bills so there's really not much I can say to knock them here. Simply put, I feel the line is too short with not enough respect being given to a complete Chiefs squad that has a real home field advantage, particularly at this time of year, at Arrowhead Stadium. Take Kansas City (9*).

NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Sunday.

I'm a strong believer that the 'revenge' angle means something when it comes to Tom Brady. While it's true that some teams will get the better of Brady at times, he generally gets the last laugh when the games matter the most. Case in point, the Saints have defeated the Bucs four times going back to the start of last season. However, when the chips were down in the NFL Divisional Round last year, Brady guided the Bucs to a win in what turned out to be Drew Brees' final NFL game, at the Superdome no less. I make that point because here Brady will be facing the Rams for the third time since joining the Bucs at the start of last season. The Rams have got the better of Brady and the Bucs on both previous occasions including a fairly dominant 34-24 victory back in Week 3 this season. We all know about the Bucs injury issues. They're missing a number of key contributors, particularly on the offensive side of the football. They suffered more injuries in last Sunday's win over the Eagles with both Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs, two integral parts of the offensive line, going down and questionable to play against the Rams. Regardless, I like Brady and the Bucs chances of rising to the occasion and living to fight at least one more game in these playoffs. The Rams lopsided win over the Cardinals on Monday night is fresh in the minds of most bettors and they're certainly being given considerable respect with this line sitting at the standard three points for home field advantage. I haven't been sold on the Rams all season and I'm not about to change course here. I have the ultimate confidence in the Bucs defense stepping up and rattling Matt Stafford in this one. The Rams have a track record of failing to deliver when the chips are down under Sean McVay and I expect nothing different here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The 49ers will undoubtedly be a popular play not only against the spread but on the moneyline in this game as well. After all, the Niners have been a trendy Super Bowl pick since earning their way into the playoffs with an upset win in Los Angeles in Week 18 - a game they trailed 17-0 but rallied to win in overtime. We won with the Niners in last Sunday's 'upset' victory in Dallas but I'm not interested in going back to the well here. The Packers have fallen out of favor with bettors a little bit after dropping the cash in three of their last four games. I like the fact they draw a familiar opponent here, having faced the Niners three times since the start of 2020, including a wild 30-28 win in Santa Clara back in late September. While the Niners suffered a couple of key injuries to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner in last Sunday's win in Dallas (it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to play on Saturday), the Packers have been getting healthier and may have standout CB Jaire Alexander (among others) back for this game. Here, we'll note that the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. The 49ers find themselves in a poor situation here, noting that winning teams that are on the road catching between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off consecutive SU road victories, when facing a winning opponent, have gone a miserable 7-28 ATS and have been outscored by an average margin of 13.0 points the last 35 times that situation has come up. Take Green Bay (8*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not sure I'm in the minority in saying that the Titans are probably one of the weaker one-seeds in the AFC in recent years. They benefited from a very manageable schedule over the second half of the regular season, with a number of close calls along the way that could have really gone either way. With that being said, they catch a break here hosting a Bengals squad that managed to walk away victorious thanks to a goal-line stand at the end of the fourth quarter against the Raiders, but lost a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football in that game. That's a little-talked about aspect of grabbing the one-seed and the bye that goes along with it. It not only gives a team much-needed rest but it also eliminates the potential of losing key players to injury during the Wild Card round. Here, the Bengals will be without Larry Ogunjobi and could also be missing Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels. Even if one of the latter two can't go it would be a major blow. Of course, the Titans will have RB Derrick Henry back in the fold giving them a massive boost. The Titans have had their share of playoff disappointment in recent years, but I look for them to prevail on Saturday and we'll lock in the line early to take advantage of what is likely to look like a discounted price later in the week. Take Tennessee (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

No team is carrying a stronger 'no one believes in us' vibe heading into the NFL Playoffs than the Pittsburgh Steelers. And rightfully so. Very few do believe in them as they face a seemingly insurmountable task in Kansas City on Sunday. After all, the Chiefs already beet the Steelers by a 36-10 score back on Boxing Day. However, that actually sets Pittsburgh up well in this one (stay with me here). The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 points in that situation. That 26-point loss to Kansas City was one of only three losses by 14 points or more this season. While I'm not about to compare this Steelers team to the Ravens eventual Super Bowl winning squad back in 2013, there's no question there are some similar vibes being given off with this being Big Ben's last ride (you may remember the Ravens rallied around Ray Lewis after he announced he would be retiring at the end of their 2013 playoff run). I actually like the way Roethlisberger's approach seemed to evolve in the latter stages of the regular season, almost as if the pressure was off. I don't think the Steelers enter this game feeling much pressure given that no one is giving them a chance of winning. It's not as if the Chiefs have been the picture of consistency - just 8-9 ATS overall this season including a 4-5 ATS mark at home. Take Pittsburgh (9*).

NFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys couldn't have drawn a worse matchup in the Wild Card round. The 49ers are playing exceptionally well on both sides of the football right now with their lone blemish a 20-17 Thursday night loss in Tennessee where QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a thumb injury during the game. The Niners will arguably have the best two offensive players on the field in this game in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle (I realize there are some Cowboys that would take exception to that). While their offense has really taken off lately, I've been more impressed by their defense, which has held its last four opponents to no more than 236 passing yards despite facing 30+ pass attempts in each of those games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Niners allowed 100 yards rushing and it happened only once over their last 10 contests. The Cowboys are certainly a formidable opponent but not invincible, noting they have lost there of their last five games here at Jerry World. Their offense routinely put up 30+ points in the first two months of the season but reached that mark just twice over their last six games, with those performances coming against a severely depleted Washington squad and an Eagles team that rested the majority of its starters last Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys are just 1-8 ATS when the line sits between +3 and -3 over the last two seasons and they haven't been particularly close in those games, losing by an average margin of 11.0 points. Take San Francisco (10*).

AFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

What does home field advantage really mean in this matchup? The road team took both regular season meetings, and in rather convincing fashion. On a freezing cold Saturday night in Buffalo, I'm more than comfortable grabbing more than a field goal with a Bill Bellichick-coached Patriots team coming off an ugly loss last Sunday in Miami. The Bills snuck in the front door for a win and cover against the lowly Jets last Sunday (we won with Buffalo in that game). Few teams have been more 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' than the Bills this season. Losses against the Steelers, Jaguars and Colts certainly come to mind. And then there was the 14-10 home loss against these same Patriots in a game where they were quite simply bullied into submission. Buffalo did exact its revenge in a 33-21 win in New England in Week 16. Even in that contest, though, the Bills allowed 149 rushing yards on 27 attempts. It's easy to forget that the Patriots were thought to be the AFC's best team - perhaps on a collision course with Tom Brady and the Bucs in the Super Bowl - after that Monday night victory in Buffalo back in early December. There's no question they've fallen out of favor since then and last Sunday's 33-24 loss in Miami with an AFC East title hanging in the balance only amplified the doubters. Here, we'll note that the Patriots are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.1 points on average in that spot and 50-29 ATS the last 79 times they've played on the road off a loss. The Bills, meanwhile, are 8-20 ATS the last 28 times they've come off four straight wins, as is the case here, and 15-32 ATS the last 47 times they've come off a home win against a division opponent, which is also the situation here. Take New England (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Raiders are in a classic fade spot here, coming off an outright underdog victory at home against a division rival, not to mention playing on a short week, on the road no less. With that being said, I believe they match up well with the Bengals, especially given this will be their second shot at Cincinnati this season after turning in a poor effort at home back in November. That game was played in the midst of Las Vegas' 1-5 slide. Now we get the Raiders coming off four straight wins, and still carrying that 'us against the world' mentality that has seemingly helped so many underdog teams in the NFL Playoffs over the years. The Bengals celebrated the AFC North division title like they won the Super Bowl two weeks ago. They of course laid down in last week's season finale on the road against the Browns (and rightfully so with nothing to play for). I think that might bite them a little here as they had been playing so well prior to that game. For the Raiders, they've essentially been playing playoff football for weeks, desperately trying to sneak into the postseason, which they did thanks to last Sunday's overtime thriller against the Chargers. I also like the fact that Las Vegas has its key pieces (relatively) healthy for this one with RB Josh Jacobs playing some of the best football of his young career and TE Darren Waller having returned with a two-catch but nine-target performance last Sunday. Both players find themselves in favorable matchups against the Bengals dare-I-say overrated defense here. It's been an eternity since the Bengals last won a playoff game. Maybe they get that giant monkey off of their back here, but I'm not convinced a win will come easy and will grab the points accordingly. Take Las Vegas (9*).

NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Bills in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch in Buffalo. The Jets have inexplicably scored 24+ points in three straight games but only have one win to show for it. I suspect that run comes to an end here, however, noting that Buffalo has allowed only 49 points in its last three games combined, holding those three opponents to a combined 45-of-93 (48.4%) passing for just 432 yards. On the flip side, we've seen the Bills running game somewhat surprisingly step to the forefront, rumbling for 173, 119, 114 and 233 yards over their last three games. With an AFC East title hanging in the balance (Buffalo would also need a Patriots loss to the Dolphins) I don't expect the Bills to take their foot off the gas in this one. Given what an uneven regular season it has been for Buffalo, I suspect they want to head into the playoffs with a sharp performance on both sides of the football here (I realize that goes without saying). Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Texans last week, deservedly so as they went far too conservative in an eventual 16-point loss in San Francisco. With Houston simply playing out the string and the Titans looking to potentially wrap up the AFC's number-one seed and a first-round bye, I look for Tennessee to win this one going away. The Titans won't have RB Derrick Henry back for this game. That actually works in our favor from a pointspread perspective. I don't believe Henry's heroics will be needed to secure a lopsided win here. We've seen the Titans take flight over the last six quarters of football - clearly this is a team peaking at the right time. They certainly won't want to lose any of that momentum on Sunday. The only reason the Texans were even somewhat competitive in last week's loss in San Francisco was because the Niners had to turn to rookie QB Trey Lance, with somewhat of a limited offensive gameplan, early on at least. As that game evolved, Lance and the Niners offense were able to get whatever they wanted and I would anticipate a similar scenario unfolding in favor of the Titans explosive offense here. Take Tennessee (9*).

MNF First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Maybe Big Ben has some magic left in his final home start at Heinz Field. I'm willing to bet it's the Browns that come out aggressively and take a lead into halftime on Monday night, however. Prior to last week against Green Bay, the Browns hadn't dropped the cash in the first half in consecutive games all season. So here, they enter riding their only first half losing streak of the season. It's been a different story for the Steelers, who have now failed to cover the first half pointspread in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch they've been outscored 124-29. That's no fluke. Pittsburgh averages only 9.4 points on 5.2 yards per play in the first half at home this season. By contrast, the Browns average 14.1 points on 6.3 yards per play in the first half on the road. After losing the first meeting of the season by a 15-10 score at home - a game in which they were never able to get anything going offensively - I look for Cleveland to go on the attack early in this one, pounding away on the Steelers weak run defense that has allowed an ugly 4.8 yards per rush this season. Take Cleveland first half (10*).

NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

A strange thing has happened as the Texans have reeled off consecutive wins and have actually played .500 football over their last six games. While they're a significant underdog on Sunday in Santa Clara, I believe they can hang tough. I like the fact that Houston has gone on the offensive lately, with QB Davis Mills actually playing well and displaying a solid rapport with his receiving corps. The Texans have attempted 106 passes over the last three games alone. Now they get Brandin Cooks back from Covid protocol which should only help their cause against what I consider to be a beatable 49ers defense. San Francisco had been rolling along offensively before running into a desperate Titans squad last Thursday. The Niners lost Jimmy Garroppolo in that game, however, meaning they'll turn to rookie Trey Lance in this one. While 49ers fans are high on Lance, and for good reason, at this early stage of his career I believe his starting presence should warrant a downgrade when it comes to the Niners offense, especially their two top playmakers in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. I'm not entirely sure what sort of gameplan head coach Kyle Shanahan will cook up in this one but I do feel it's a stretch to expect the Niners to win this one by two touchdowns or more. Take Houston (10*).

CFB Bowl First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Ole Miss 'first half' minus the points over Baylor at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Baylor did what many didn't believe it could, upsetting Oklahoma State in a revenge game to capture the Big 12 Championship in early December. Here, I believe the Bears face a much different challenge but rather than lay the points with Ole Miss in the full game, we'll focus on the first half only. The Rebels should offer something of a 'shock to the system' for the Bears defense, which hasn't faced an offense like the one Ole Miss possesses in the Big 12. There were times when the Rebels offense didn't look quite as explosive or potent as most expected but a lot of that had to do with a number of key contributors being banged-up or sidelined entirely. With a full month off between games (the Rebels haven't played since Thanksgiving Night) Ole Miss should be 'all systems go' for this one with do-it-all QB Matt Corral somewhat surprisingly playing in this game instead of opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. I give Baylor all the credit in the world for winning the Big 12 title. We cashed a few tickets with the Bears over the course of the season and they could very well win this game as well as the Rebels do have the type of defense that will let opponents back in games. However, in the first half, I believe it will be Ole Miss that goes on the offensive (no pun intended) and gets plenty of licks in against a Bears defense you can throw on (we've seen a number of Baylor's opponents this season find success through the air). While Baylor has proven stout against the run, the Rebels offer a ground attack that can really disguise its looks and brings a different approach compared to what the Bears have seen, led by the dual-threat Corral. Also consider that if there's any team more built to play on the 'fast track' at the Superdome, it's the Rebels. Take Ole Miss first half (10*).

My selection is on Wake Forest 'first half' minus the points over Rutgers at 11 am et on Friday.

I'll lay the points in the first half only with the Demon Deacons on Friday as I believe they can provide a 'shock to the system' of sorts early on against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers didn't face many 'pass-first' teams over the course of the season. Wake Forest is likely to throw all over it on Friday, however. The Demon Deacons play fast and like to air it out, completing 20+ passes in each of their final seven games down the stretch. The issue with Wake Forest, however, is its defense and its tendency to let teams hang around and in many cases get back in the game after falling behind big. I can certainly see that situation unfolding again here, even with the limited nature of Rutgers' offense (the total sitting in the 60's is telling in my opinion). So instead we'll call for the Deacs' to jump ahead by double-digits early on and hold that lead through the first 30 minutes and not worry about what happens in the second half. Take Wake Forest 'first half' (8*).

CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Louisville at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen plenty of support for Louisville leading up to this game, flipping the line from the opener that saw Air Force as a short favorite. I don't agree with the move. The Falcons have done nothing but win under head coach Troy Calhoun - particularly since a disastrous 2-10 2013 season. This year, we saw Air Force navigate a tough Mountain West Conference schedule to go 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. I guess you could say Louisville's most impressive win came at home against Central Florida early in the season. There were also ugly lopsided losses against the likes of Ole Miss, N.C. State and Kentucky in the Cardinals regular season finale. Air Force closed out the regular season on a roll, winning three straight games and scoring 124 points in the process. I expect the Falcons to offer a real shock to the system to the Louisville defense here - a defense that struggled to stop the run at the best of times this season. The Cardinals can run as well, and will need to with a couple of key contributors at the wide receiver position transferring out of the program, but Air Force was stout against the run all season, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush against opponents that average 3.8 ypr. While few expect the Falcons to take to the air often in this game, I do think there will be opportunities for them to do so, noting that they did average 9.6 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season while Louisville was only average against the pass, giving up 7.0 yppa. Take Air Force (10*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Indianapolis at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

With the Colts dealing with considerable Covid issues I can certainly see them punting this one, especially with games against the Raiders and Jaguars on deck. I liked the situation prior, but now that we have a little more clarity I see this as an ideal spot to back Arizona as a short favorite at home as it looks to bounce back from last week's dismal performance against the Lions. It's not difficult to come back from that type of poor performance as we saw from the Cards last week, particularly at home. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Cleveland at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not going to get caught overthinking this one. The Browns are missing so many key contributors and let's face it, they weren't playing all that well to begin with. Yes, Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are among those players expected back from Covid protocols. No I don't think they have any sort of advantage against a Packers defense that should be in a foul mood after giving up 30 points against the Ravens last Sunday. Offensively, there's little reason to expect anything other than Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense running roughshod over the Browns overrated defense. Cleveland held up well against the Raiders on Monday but that had more to do with the limited nature and cautious, conservative approach by the Las Vegas offense than anything else in my opinion. The Browns don't get better with defensive anchor Myles Garrett dealing with a nagging groin injury and playing on a very short week. They also lose key safety John Johnson. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I’m not going to overthink this one. The Washington Football Team made things a lot closer than they probably should have been in last week’s home loss to the Cowboys. Now, likely missing a number of key cogs against the Eagles, on the road no less, I look for them to struggle mightily to stay competitive. Philadelphia is as healthy as you could hope for in the midst of this Omicron wave. And the Eagles obviously still have everything to play for at this point. Only Dallas miscues on offense kept the Football Team from getting embarrassed last Sunday. I can’t see them benefitting from the same against the Eagles though. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games with the lone loss coming in a clear letdown spot against the Giants on the road. They also put up 30+ points in those three wins and should be able to approach that number again here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Wyoming at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes go from being favored by 3.5 points in the MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois to catching the same number of points against a Wyoming squad that has lost six of its last eight games. The common line of thinking here is that the Cowboys have the superior defense and will therefore be able to control proceedings in this contest. I'm not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, the best two offenses Wyoming faced this season were arguably Fresno State and Boise State and they lost those two games by a combined 40-13 score. Note that the Cowboys want to run the football on offense. In fact, they didn't complete more than 18 passes on a single occasion this season. The problem is the Golden Flashes are more than used to facing similar offenses. Five opponents ran the football 40+ times against them over the course of the season. They've allowed 4.7 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.4 ypr. The Flashes have faced an average of 41 rush attempts per game and Wyoming runs the football an average of, you guessed it, 41 times per game. Interestingly, Wyoming's run defense hasn't been a whole lot better, allowing 4.4 ypr against opponents that average 4.1 ypr. It's the Cowboys pass defense that has been a difference-maker, but here I'm willing to bet on the talent of the Golden Flashes aerial attack led by QB Dustin Crum. Kent State head coach Sean Lewis has come on and turned the program around. The Flashes went 2-10 in his first season in 2018 but have posted three consecutive winning seasons since, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (the program's first ever Bowl victory). Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While the Bears are ravaged by Covid-related absences I'm willing to take a flyer on them grabbing nearly a full touchdown at home against what I consider to be an untrustworthy Vikings squad. Minnesota's most lopsided road win this season came by only seven points against the Chargers last month. The Vikes defense remains extremely vulnerable and it's obvious that the Bears offense is on an uptick right now, having scored 22 and 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Packers - two very difficult matchups - over the last two weeks. Rookie QB Justin Fields is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers and I expect to see further progression against a very beatable Vikings secondary here. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by a grand total of just 14 points with the Bears winning two of those games outright. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Tulsa minus the points over Old Dominion at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

I believe there's a talent gap that isn't being properly reflected in this line. Tulsa had high hopes this season but a very difficult schedule ended up contributing to a 6-6 campaign. After a bitter two-point defeat in last year's Armed Forces Bowl you can be sure the Golden Hurricane's wealth of returning talent will be up for this game - even if it is 'only' the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Old Dominion reached this game thanks to reeling off five straight wins to close out the regular season. Of course, those wins came against a weak slate of opponents - the toughest being Middle Tennessee State, which the Monarchs upset as a three-point underdog. While Tulsa QB Davis Brin struggled for the most part this season, I'm not sure this is his game to win. Instead I look for the Golden Hurricane to lean heavily on their excellent ground attack led by RB Sharmari Brooks, along with their experienced defense which will be looking to make a statement after not quite living up to expectations over the course of the season. Underdogs have ruled Bowl season so far, but I look for Tulsa to reverse that trend on Monday. Take Tulsa (8*).

My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Upset wins over USC, Utah and Arizona State have had plenty of bettors high on the Oregon State Beavers this season. What I see, however, is a team that had a rather uneven season and lopsided victories were few and far between over the last two months of the campaign. The Beavers did beat Stanford by 21 and aforementioned Arizona State by 14 in November but they did so by holding those two teams to 14 and 10 points, respectively and both wins came at home. I would certainly expect Utah State to score far more than that here, and I'm confident the upstart Aggies can stay inside what I consider to be an inflated pointspread. Utah State has gone a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, capping it off with a Mountain West Conference championship in a decisive win over San Diego State. I absolutely love the Aggies senior class and fully expect them to go out on a high note here. First-year head coach Blake Anderson was involved in a swirl of controversy this week when a recording of his comments regarding sexual assault victims (from an address to his team at Fall camp) came out earlier this week. If anything I would expect that controversy to perhaps galvanize this team even more heading into Saturday's game. Take Utah State (9*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between the Chiefs and Chargers on Thursday night and will grab the points accordingly with Los Angeles in an underdog role. The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent this season. One thing that has been consistent about Los Angeles since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback last season is its ability to play the Chiefs tough, however. I expect nothing different here. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling right now. They've won six straight games, including four in a row ATS. Keep in mind, five of those games were played at Arrowhead. The only road win over that stretch came against a reeling Raiders squad. The Chargers are banged-up for this one but will get WR Keenan Allen back and it sounds like RB Austin Ekeler is more likely to play than not. The Chiefs are missing some key cogs as well, including DT Chris Jones. Here, we'll note that Kansas City has averaged just 18.7 points and outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 0.9 points the last six times it has played on the road after a victory by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points the last 25 times they've played at home with a posted total of 49.5 points or higher. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Montana plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Friday.

I'll take a shot with the underdog Grizzlies on Friday night as they travel to Virginia to challenge James Madison. Montana sports the number-five rank in FCS while James Madison is number-two. Montana hasn't lost a game since October 16th at the hands of Sacramento State. Its only other defeat this season came against Eastern Washington back on October 2nd - a loss it avenged in the playoffs last week as it prevailed 57-41 in the rematch. While the Grizzlies offense has been lighting it up, I believe its defense can hang in this one as well. It will certainly be challenged against a Dukes squad that has put up 50+ points in three of its last four games. While JMU does sport the higher overall ranking, it has only faced three top-25 ranked FCS squads during its current seven-game winning streak and none of those opponents were ranked higher than 18th. The Dukes did defeat Weber State, which was at the time ranked number-nine, back in mid-September but the Wildcats didn't turn out to be nearly as good as most expected, losing five games and failing to reach the playoffs. The Dukes are certainly tough at home but not unbeatable as they fell against Villanova on this field back in October. I simply feel this battle-tested Montana squad (last two opponents have been number-three and number-four ranked teams in FCS) can give JMU a difficult test on Friday night and we're being given more than a touchdown to work with (at the time of writing). Take Montana (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I'm a believer in this Houston team and think it can finally give Cincinnati a run after dropping the last two matchups in this series in blowout fashion. The Bearcats are the hunted at this point as they try to hold on to their undefeated record and potentially earn a coveted CFP spot. The blowout win over SMU two weeks ago was impressive to say the least, but we know that the Bearcats aren't invincible. We saw it in a narrow win over Tulsa. We saw it in an eventual lopsided result at Tulane. Even last week, the Bearcats didn't look overly impressive in disposing of East Carolina by a 35-13 score as they turned the ball over three times, ran for less than four yards per rush and completed only 17 passes. Houston, meanwhile, has gone undefeated since opening the season with a tough loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have demolished the majority of their opponents and it hasn't seemed to matter where they play, they've brought their 'A' game. I'm not sure that the Cincinnati defense has been quite as good as advertised with all of its talent and experience this season and I think Houston can find some success offensively in this one. The Bearcats likely once again get into the 30's, just as they have in the last two matchups between these teams, but this time the Cougars keep pace. Take Houston (7*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Alabama at 4 pm et on Saturday.

There's a lot of talk about whether Alabama will get into the CFP by taking Georgia down to the wire, or perhaps even to overtime in Saturday's SEC Championship Game. I don't think we'll have to worry about that conversation as I expect the Bulldogs to win this one going away. It's not often we see Georgia favored in this series. In fact this is the first time it has been since back in 2015 when it was a -1.5-point favorite and lost by four touchdowns. I expect this game to play our much differently, however. The fact that Alabama needed overtime to get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl last Saturday was no fluke. The Crimson Tide just aren't the same juggernaut this season that we've been accustomed to seeing over the years. It happens. Not often, but it happens. Meanwhile, Georgia hasn't received nearly as much press as 'Bama (in my opinion anyway) but it continues to churn along, fresh off a 45-0 no-sweat rout of in-state rival Georgia Tech last Saturday. In fact, the Bulldogs really haven't had to break a sweat since pulling out a 10-3 win over Clemson way back in Week 1. Some would say that Alabama is more battle-tested. When it comes to college football though, I'll take the fresher team when the talent is virtually equal. Take Georgia (9*).

CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Utah State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Utah State in last week's rout of New Mexico State while also cashing the 'under' in San Diego State's victory over Boise State. Here, I won't hesitate to lay the points with the Aztecs as I believe they match up well against Utah State's high-powered offensive attack. Yes, the Aggies can score. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Carson Strong. I think they're going to be overmatched against an elite San Diego State defense here. After falling behind early we saw the Aztecs defense absolutely manhandle a good Boise State offense last Friday. Only Nevada has managed to throw on San Diego State this season and in that game the Wolfpack completely abandoned their ground game, running the ball only 15 times for a grand total of eight positive yards. The Aggies will look to run it a little bit but will likely run into a brick wall given the Aztecs have allowed just 2.6 yards per rush this season. Keep in mind, Utah State was held to only 17 points in a blowout loss against a quality Wyoming defense just two games back. Utah State hasn't fared well as an underdog in this series. In fact, the last three times it has been in that position it has lost by 31 (2020), 27 (2016) and 34 (2010) points. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We lost with Baylor in the first matchup between these two teams this season in a game that the Bears really had no business even sniffing out a cover in. The reality was, the Bears came within one stop (or one more first down by the Cowboys) of covering the pointspread in an eventual 10-point loss in Stillwater. Here, I don't expect things to be even that close. The Baylor defense was better positioned to go toe-to-toe in a slugfest with the Cowboys on that night. Now we find the Bears coming off a number of tight, hard-fought affairs and I can't help but think we might see them finally give in should they fall behind on Saturday. Oklahoma State has ravaged the majority of its recent opponents, up until Bedlam against rival Oklahoma last Saturday anyway. The Cowboys still ultimately prevailed in that rivalry showdown and I look for them to build off that performance and take another big step toward legitimate respectability on Saturday. Yes, they've earned plenty of respect this season, but not at the same level as some of the other power programs, despite their impressive play. Note that while the last matchup in this series was relatively close, the one before that went the Cowboys way by 39 points last December. Take Oklahoma State (9*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Utah in the first matchup between these two teams two weeks ago but in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game I'll go the other way and back the Ducks after we cashed with them in last week's win over rival Oregon State. Everything went wrong for Oregon in that aforementioned first meeting. The Ducks simply couldn't get anything going on offense and once they fell behind by a considerable margin they were forced to abandon their gameplan entirely. It's not as if the Utah offense accomplished much in that game though. The Utes ran for right around 4.0 yards per rush and completed only 10 passes. Here, we'll note that all three of Utah's losses this season came away from home. I don't think this is a team necessarily built for the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Yes, Oregon also suffered both of its losses on the road this season. However, it also notched a win over National Championship contender Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. We haven't seen either team take consecutive wins in this series since the Ducks won in 2016 and 2017. Back-to-back wins for the Utes haven't come since they strung together consecutive victories over the Ducks between 1991 and 1994. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday.

Western Kentucky might be the best team no one is paying attention to as we head into Conference Championship weekend. The Hilltoppers haven't lost since dropping a 52-46 decision against the same UTSA squad they'll face in Friday's C-USA Championship Game - reeling off seven straight wins while going 6-1 ATS in the process. That earlier showdown with the Roadrunners came at a tough time for the Hilltoppers as they were beaten down following three consecutive games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State. Needless to say, the Hilltoppers will be looking for an ounce of revenge in this one. The Roadrunners have received far more press this season thanks to their flawless 11-0 record before falling by 22 points on the road against North Texas last week. You could argue that was a 'meaningless' game so it was no surprise UTSA lost. However, if it was meaningless, why were QB Frank Harris and RB Sincere McCormick on the field? The Roadrunners enter this contest having dropped the cash in three straight games. While their passing game was efficient early in the season, that hasn't been the case down the stretch as they've completed just 102-of-171 (59.6%) of their passes over the last six games. With a total sitting in the low-70's this game obviously has high shootout potential and in that situation, I favor the Hilltoppers and their electric offense that has moved the ball at will through the air all season long. Interestingly, the Roadrunners haven't really faced any offenses of the sort since running into the Hilltoppers earlier this season (note that WKU racked up over 500 passing yards in that wild 52-46 loss). The Hilltoppers were favored by 3.5 points in the first matchup this season. I actually think they're in an even better spot here as the perfect conditions inside the Alamodome favor their explosive offense. Take Western Kentucky (9*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*).

CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won by fading Oregon in its blowout loss on the road against Utah last week. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Ducks as they host the 'Civil War' against rival Oregon State on Saturday. The Ducks have been dealt blow after blow in terms of injuries this season but they've persevered and check into this regular season finale sporting a 9-2 record. While most are down on the Ducks after last week's ugly performance, we're being afforded a short pointspread in my opinion. Oregon State is 'fat and happy' off consecutive home wins to become Bowl eligible. The Beavers certainly want to run the football but here they're facing an Oregon squad that allows just 3.5 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush. Oregon State has only posted more than 19 pass completions once in its last nine games and that came against lowly Colorado. Note that Oregon has held its last three opponents to just 45-of-81 (56%) passing for 569 yards. Take Oregon (10*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

Duke's season mercifully comes to an end on Saturday as it hosts Miami in yet another unfavorable spot. The Blue Devils season has been circling the drain for weeks - months really. They enter this contest having dropped the cash in five straight games and have been absolutely throttled by opposing offenses, allowing 45 points or more in all five of those ATS losses. While they have managed to score 29, 17 and 22 points over their last three games, there's little reason for optimism here. Note that in last week's 62-22 rout at the hands of Louisville they attempted a whopping 50 passes but gained only 275 yards through the air. Duke's ground attack has churned out plenty of yardage but it's been volume-based. Miami's defensive weakness this season has been against the pass but much of the damage was done in just two games - against Alabama and Pittsburgh. I don't need to tell you that Duke isn't Alabama or Pitt. When these two teams met last season Miami rolled to a 48-0 victory. We're dealing with a higher pointspread this time around but I believe the move is warranted. The Hurricanes have caught a spark down the stretch and can improve their Bowl standing with a victory here. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over North Carolina State at 7 pm et on Friday.

You can be sure the Tar Heels would like nothing more than to spoil the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game with a victory here on Friday night. It's been a largely disappointing season for North Carolina but all is certainly not lost. The Tar Heels will still be going Bowling and can perhaps improve their standing in that regard with a win over in-state rival N.C. State here. This matchup has actually been no contest in the last two meetings with North Carolina rolling to a 41-10 road win two years ago before delivering a 48-21 victory in Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels were double-digit favorites in both of those games and have to feel at least a little bit disrespected as nearly touchdown underdogs in this one. Yes, QB Sam Howell is banged-up with an apparent injury to his non-throwing shoulder but he was held out of last week's game as a precaution and is expected to play on Friday night. The real star of the Tar Heels show has become their ground game anyway. They're churning out 212 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season. Of course their aerial attack remains a real factor, averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game on 8.9 yards per pass attempt. While N.C. State enters this game 'fat and happy' off a 41-17 drubbing of Syracuse and sporting a perfect 6-0 home record this season, North Carolina has yet to taste victory away from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels couldn't have gotten off to much worse of a start on the road against Pittsburgh two games back but in spite of that still managed to force overtime in an eventual 30-23 loss. They also gave an outstanding Notre Dame squad a run in a 44-34 loss in South Bend back on October 30th. My point is, as bad as things have gone for UNC at times this season, there have been some positives and I don't expect them to go away quietly on Friday night. Take North Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 1 pm et on Friday.

I think we would be dealing with a considerably higher pointspread here were it not for the egg laid by Utah State in last week's game in Wyoming. The Aggies actually still have a slim chance at winning their division and earning a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but only if they win here on Friday. The timing of this game is key. For the Aggies to steal a division title they'll need both Boise State and Air Force to lose. Boise's game starts just an hour earlier and it's a tough one against San Diego State. Air Force doesn't kick off until later in the afternoon. Expect the Aggies to show up for this one and that might be all they have to do against a New Mexico squad whose season has been circling the drain for months really. The Lobos offense is as lifeless as it gets. They've scored a grand total of 24 points over their last three games and were shut out by Boise State last week. You would assume their defense would show up here in the season finale but this is certainly a tough matchup against an explosive Utah State offense that will be determined to erase the memory of last week's debacle against Wyoming. Take Utah State (9*).

My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'll lay the points with the Bears in this matchup between two down-trodden NFC North squads. Let's face it, neither team has much going for it entering this Thanksgiving Day showdown. With that being said, I have reason to believe that Chicago is better-positioned to stop the bleeding with a victory here. No, the Bears won't have Justin Fields. They won't have Allen Robinson. They won't have Khalil Mack. However, I do feel that two offensive players in particular match up well here, those being WR Darnell Mooney and RB David Montgomery. Mooney has shown a good enough rapport in limited work with QB Andy Dalton this season to give me hope that he can expose a Lions secondary that has been absolutely flamed for big play after big play this season with only seven teams giving up more pass completions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit's run defense has been non-existent. The Lions have allowed a whopping 565 rushing yards over their last three games. Those are college-like numbers. Defensively, even without Mack, I also like the matchup for the Bears. Yes, Chicago like Detroit has struggled to stop the run lately but the Lions ground attack has been so inconsistent that I can't really trust them to pound away with any success here. Guys like Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith had a field day against the Lions swinging door-like offensive line in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I expect that trio to create plenty of chaos again on Thursday. Despite the distraction around head coach Matt Nagy's potential firing, I expect to see the Bears come to play in this one. Take Chicago (10*).

Take Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I believe the Broncos are favored for a reason in this one, despite the fact that they've dropped the cash in four straight games and face a Northern Illinois squad that is headed to the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester is doing the right thing, pointing to the fact that the Broncos haven't won a game here in Dekalb since way back in 2007. Despite the fact that Northern Illinois owns the better overall record and as I mentioned is bound for the conference title game in Detroit next week, I believe Western Michigan may actually be the better team. Keep in mind, the Broncos have a road win over Pitt to their credit this season. I think they may have been caught looking ahead to this matchup when they coughed up a 14-0 lead on the road against Eastern Michigan last week. Here, we'll note that the Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games following three consecutive ATS losses. Take Western Michigan (6*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This sets up as a smash spot for the defending champion Bucs as they return home off a highly-disappointing loss in Washington - their second defeat in a row - to host the Giants on Monday Night Football. New York is coming off its bye week and checks in having won two of its last three games overall. Keep in mind, those two victories came against a reeling (at the time) Panthers squad quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and a Raiders squad that is clearly in the midst of a downturn. Most expected the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders off their bye week but that simply wasn't the case as they got tripped up by a Washington squad that certainly has the talent to win on any given week (remember, the 'Football Team' also gave the Bucs all they could handle during the playoffs last January). This is a far more favorable matchup for Tom Brady and co. back at home. When we last saw the Bucs here in Tampa they were laying waste to the Bears in a 38-3 cakewalk. New York dropped last year's meeting in this series by only two points in New Jersey. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucs were favored by 13 points in that game (a higher pointspread than we're dealing with here despite Tampa having home field advantage this time around). The G-Men held up well in their last MNF appearance against the Chiefs on November 1st. But let's not forget that this is a team that has also lost by 24 and 27-point margins in step-up games against the Cowboys and Rams, respectively. They're quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers have inexplicably covered the spread in nine straight games entering Sunday's NFC North clash in Minnesota. Their defense has led the way despite missing two of their best players in pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. I think this is the game where the levee breaks for the Pack defense against a Vikings offense that has all hands on deck and is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 58 points. The Vikes are somewhat surprisingly just 2-2 at home this season, where they generally own a significant edge. On the flip side, the Packers have gone 4-1 on the road but the majority of those victories have come in Houdini fashion. At some point they're going to get tripped up, and I see this as the spot. Green Bay has actually won consecutive trips to Minnesota but sustained success isn't likely. Unlike the other NFC North squads which Green Bay has beaten up on over the years, Minnesota has held its own in this series, and then some. The Vikes are 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings and the underdog has cashed in three consecutive matchups between these two teams. Take Minnesota (10*).

CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon has CFP aspirations thanks to a 9-1 record and a marquee road win over Ohio State but I expect its playoff hopes to be dashed against the Utes on Saturday night. Utah has gone undefeated at home this season and I'm confident that flawless home record will remain unblemished when it's all said and done on Saturday. The Ducks caught lightning in a bottle in that early season win over the Buckeyes. Line those two teams up again now and I'm confident we would see Ohio State prevail in convincing fashion. Utah has faced a tougher Pac-12 slate in my opinion with its lone conference loss coming on the road against Oregon State. Since that defeat it has gone a perfect 3-0, scoring a whopping 134 points in the process. The Utes aren't likely to get bullied at the line of scrimmage the way Oregon's recent opponent have. Keep in mind, the Ducks are taking a step up in class after facing Colorado, Washington and Washington State over their last three games. I think we'll see the Utes force the Ducks to throw the football more than they would like in this contest, noting that Oregon has completed 17 or fewer passes in six of its 10 games this season while Utah has limited opponents that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt to just 6.4 yppa this season. Take Utah (9*).

My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

No one is expecting Georgia Tech to put up much of a fight in this game as it checks in off four consecutive losses - its Bowl hopes dashed following last week's home defeat at the hands of Boston College. With a likely beating at the hands of in-state rival Georgia on deck next week, this essentially becomes the Yellow Jackets Bowl game, in front of a national audience in South Bend as they look to play spoiler against an Irish squad that has CFP aspirations. While the season hasn't exactly gone as the Yellow Jackets would have hoped, save for a blowout loss against Pitt in early October they've been in virtually every game. The Pitt loss marks their only defeat by more than 11 points this season. Notre Dame has rolled past its last two opponents but easy wins have been few and far between in South Bend this season. The Irish defeated Toledo by three, Purdue by 14, lost to Cincinnati, USC by 15 and North Carolina by 10. You get the picture. I simply feel the Irish are being asked to lay too many points in this matchup against a Georgia Tech squad that is capable of putting up plenty of points on offense and isn't as bad as it looked last week on defense. Here, we'll note that the Irish are a woeful 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, outscoring opponents by just 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Georgia Tech (9*).

CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday.

San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*).

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*).

My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

With both of these teams performing horribly on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, this play really comes down to which team I think can bounce back in that regard on Tuesday night. As far as I'm concerned, it's Western Michigan that boasts the far more talented defense, while also possessing an offense that is better than it showed (which is saying something) in last week's closer-than-expected 45-40 over lowly Akron. Note that Western Michigan had absolutely dominated this series prior to the last two years in which Eastern Michigan staged upset wins as nine and 13.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, the Broncos will be out for revenge here, while also trying to keep their faint hopes of a MAC West title alive. They're currently sitting in a tie for last place but only two games back of division-leading Northern Illinois, which they will face in next week's regular season finale. Its chances are slim to be sure, but expect the Broncos to put forth a strong effort regardless. Keep in mind, while EMU was beating up on the likes of UMass and Texas State (among others) during its non-conference slate, WMU went toe-to-toe with Michigan, Pittsburgh and San Jose State, even staging an outright upset of Pitt, on the road no less. In other words, these two teams may have identical overall records, but I certainly consider the Broncos to be the superior team, initially a consensus pick to finish second in the MAC West. Likely headed to a Bowl game and with the aforementioned faint hope of reaching the MAC title game, everything is technically still in front of WMU. EMU still has plenty to play for but doesn't really control its own destiny with its regular season finale coming against Central Michigan next week. Take Western Michigan (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles may have lost last week (we cashed a ticket fading them with the Chargers) but this is a team that has made progress over its last couple of games, starting with that dominating performance in Detroit two weeks ago (we won with the Eagles in that game). Each of Philadelphia's three victories this season have come on the road and I believe they're well-positioned to pick up another win in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a stunning blowout win in Dallas last Sunday. Here, they'll be trying for their second three-game winning streak of the season as they inexplicably hang around in the AFC West race. This isn't a team that has great prospects for the rest of the season, however, not with all of their key injuries (and departures) on the defensive side of the football. I think they're going to have to put up plenty of points to earn a win here on Sunday but we've actually seen their offense regress (believe it or not after last week's outburst in Dallas), with QB Teddy Bridgewater completing just 38 passes over the last two games and throwing for 217 yards or less in three straight contests. The Eagles have given up a very high completion percentage in recent weeks but aren't giving up a ton of yardage relatively speaking. They've held opponents to 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (and 4.0 yards per rush). A brutal schedule has certainly contributed to the Eagles going 3-6 through their first nine games but it lightens up from here. After hosting the Saints next week, Philadelphia will face the Giants (twice), Jets and Washington (twice) over its next five contests. In other words, there's no reason to throw in the towel just yet. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We went against Southern Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided North Texas victory as the Mean Green Eagles easily covered the short pointspread. Here, we're dealing with a much larger spread, but also a much bigger mismatch. Southern Miss' season is circling the drain and has been for the last two months. The Golden Eagles have lost seven straight games both SU and ATS. Their lone victory this season came against FCS opponent Grambling in a game they were favored by more than three touchdowns. UTSA is enjoying a dream season, reeling off nine straight victories while going 8-1 ATS along the way. The Roadrunners have been explosive on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass attempt while also dominating the conference defensively, giving up just 2.7 yards per rush. They have been somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt but Southern Miss is unlikely to take advantage, noting that the Eagles have 41-of-82 (50%) of their passes for only 332 yards over their last three games and that stretch included a pair of weak defensive teams in Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. I see this as an ideal spot to fade Southern Miss once again as it comes off a rare game where it didn't turn the football over. On the flip side, UTSA didn't force a single turnover in last week's rout of UTEP after forcing at least two in each of its previous six contests. Take UTSA (9*).

CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*).

CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

We haven't been involved with a side in any Kent State game since back in late September when we faded the Golden Flashes in a road game against Maryland. The Terps rolled to a three-touchdown win on that day. That wrapped up a tough two-game trip that saw the Flashes face Iowa as well. Since taking their lumps in those two blowout losses, we've seen the Flashes take off, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in MAC play. I look for them to improve on those records here. Central Michigan is in an ideal fade spot coming off a big upset win on the road against Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas were buoyed by a pair of punt return touchdowns from do-it-all WR Khalil Pimpleton after falling behind by two touchdowns early on. I'm more confident in Kent State's ability to keep its foot on the gas should it build a lead in this one. It's hard not to like what head coach Sean Lewis has done with the Flashes since taking over three years ago. Since going 2-10 in his first season, Kent State has now gone 15-11 SU over its last 26 games, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (no Bowl eligibility last year as Kent State played only four games due to Covid). With a win here the Flashes can become Bowl eligible once again. Note that Kent State is as healthy as any team in the country right now and I'm confident we'll see it step up in this big conference road tilt on Wednesday, noting that home field advantage has meant little in this series going way back over the years with the road team winning five of the last seven meetings. Take Kent State (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles have faced a pretty brutal schedule this season when you really look at it. Here, they'll be playing their first home game since back on October 14th. They've yet to enjoy consecutive home games this season and won't until December. Now they welcome a Chargers squad that has faced quite the opposite type of schedule - this will be only their second time traveling in the last five weeks and only their second game in the last three weeks thanks to a bye two weeks ago. It's obviously a big game for both teams but the Chargers reek a little more of desperation after suffering consecutive losses. I like their chances of bouncing back here. QB Justin Herbert has been struggling but now faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the last three teams it has faced to complete 90-of-110 passes for 791 yards. We actually won with Philadelphia last week but that was against the hapless Lions. I'm still not high on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, other than as a fantasy standout. While the Chargers have certainly been awful against the run this season I actually think they can step up in that regard here, especially with the Eagles backfield muddy in the absence of Miles Sanders. Note that the Chargers are 30-16 ATS the last 46 times they've come off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the evolution of the Raiders this season, even under a seemingly constant swirl of distractions. Here, off their bye week, I think we see Las Vegas come out and smash a Giants squad playing on a short week following Monday's near-miss in Kansas City. Give the Giants credit for going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs on the road on Monday. However, they come out of that game perhaps even more injury-depleted than they went in and now have to limp home to face a Raiders squad that is rested and ready off its bye week. Las Vegas has actually taken flight offensively since ridding itself of head coach Jon Gruden. QB Derek Carr looks extremely comfortable running Greg Olson's offense and now has another week of practice under his belt following the bye. I expect to see even more wrinkles in the Raiders offense here and I'm not convinced the Giants middling defense will have any answers. Missing a number of key cogs, the G-Men have struggled to defend the pass and the run. They're allowing a whopping 4.5 yards per rush and just shy of 150 rush yards per game this season. That should serve to open things up for the Raiders emerging play-action-based offense here. I'm higher on Giants QB Daniel Jones than some but New York is quite simply running out of bodies at the wide receiver position and RB Saquon Barkley is still likely a couple of weeks away from returning to the field. The Raiders offense thrived in a 31-28 last minute win over the Jets here at MetLife Stadium last season. Look for them to come up big in the Big Apple again, albeit against a different opponent this time around. Take Las Vegas (9*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulane at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Tulane got up for last Saturday's nationally-televised home game against then second-ranked Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats all they could handle in an eventual 31-12 loss. Now things get tougher as the reeling Green Wave, having not won a game since Week 2 against FCS squad Morgan State, hit the road to face a surging Central Florida team. The Golden Knights had their doors blown off by aforementioned Cincinnati on the road back on October 16th. Since then, they've bounced back with blowout wins of their own over Memphis and Temple, outscoring those two opponents by a combined 73-14 margin. I like them to keep rolling here as they look to assure themselves of Bowl eligibility with a win. Lost in the relatively competitive nature of last week's setback against Cincinnati was the fact that Tulane completed only nine passes. The Green Wave have now completed a grand total of 20 passes over their last two games. That's just not going to cut it against a Golden Knights squad that is brimming with confidence right now. Take Central Florida (8*).

C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Southern Miss at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Southern Miss has scored fewer than 20 points in all seven games against FBS opposition this season (it defeated Grambling 37-0 in its other game). Needless to say the Golden Eagles are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, North Texas kept its slim hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive with an 'upset' road win over Rice last week. Now it has an excellent opportunity to build some positive momentum, and earn an ounce of revenge after dropping its last two meetings with Southern Miss. The Mean Green Eagles have faced a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a cupcake matchup against FCS squad Northwestern State they went on to play SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Marshall, Liberty and Rice. Yes, there were a couple of soft opponents in that bunch but the majority were tough. Credit UNT for going 5-3 ATS through its first eight games, including a 4-1 ATS mark over its last four contests. I mentioned just how punchless Southern Miss has been offensively this season. North Texas is a different story as it has scored at least 21 points in each of its last four games. The Golden Eagles haven't come particularly close to even sniffing out an ATS cover since losing by 12 points (in a game they scored only nine points) as an 11-point underdog against Troy back on September 18th. Take North Texas (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This line has moved considerably over the course of the week, leaving Ole Miss in playable range as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Give Liberty credit. It has played the schedule in front of it and has done it well, winning seven of nine games to date. But let's also keep things in perspective. The Flames seven wins this season include victories against FCS squad Campbell and three of the weakest teams in FBS in Old Dominion, Louisiana-Monroe and UMass, with two of those contests coming at home. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened the season with a tough non-conference matchup against Louisville (it won 43-24) and after a couple of non-conference cupcakes, the Rebels have faced a brutal SEC schedule that included games against Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. It enters this game off a tough but not unexpected 31-20 road loss against Auburn last week. To me, this looks like an ideal 'get right' spot for Ole Miss before it gets back to the SEC gauntlet with a home date with Texas A&M next week. The fact that the Flames are a seven-win team and scored a whopping 62 points in last week's victory should help keep the Rebels focus where it needs to be this week and I expect them to win this one going away. Take Ole Miss (9*).

My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas Tech has faced a fairly easy schedule in recent weeks, but still only managed to go 2-2 SU since suffering a 70-35 rout at the hands of Texas in the final week of September. Now I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for another blowout loss as they catch Oklahoma in the wrong place the wrong time. The Sooners did win last week, but it wasn't pretty. They only managed to get past Kansas on a late surge, ultimately prevailing by a 35-23 score. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Sooners play at home they rolled up over 500 yards of total offense in a 21-point rout of TCU. I believe they're well-positioned to post another rout here, noting they've put up a whopping 117 points in their last two meetings with Texas Tech. Here, we'll back the Sooners noting that they've gone 29-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over a conference opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 22.4 points. Take Oklahoma (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than Tulane right now. The wheels have completely come off since the Green Wave opened the season with such promise after taking Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman before dismantling FCS squad Morgan State 69-20. Since then, Tulane has gone 0-5 SU and ATS. We successfully faded the Green Wave last week as they fell by 29 points against SMU. Now they face an even tougher challenge as they host second-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday, and likely do so without starting QB Michael Pratt. Pratt has been one of the only good things Tulane has had going for it as he has at least given the offense a pulse with his dual-threat ability. The Bearcats enter this game off a subpar performance against Navy last week. Of course, facing the Midshipmen is always a unique experience with their triple-option attack. Cincinnati actually did a good job of limiting the Navy offense in that game but got bogged down offensively itself. Here, I expect to see QB Desmond Ridder and his incredible supporting cast go off against a hapless Tulane defense that has been lit up for 4.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yard per pass attempt this season. The fact that Tulane has given up 40 and 55 points over its last two games is telling when you consider the offense turned the football over only twice. It's not as if the Green Wave have been handing the opposition a bunch of extra possessions. Look for the Bearcats to make the most of what they're given on Saturday as they bounce back from just their second ATS loss of the season (the first came as 36.5-point favorites against FCS squad Murray State back in Week 2). Take Cincinnati (9*).