NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Cowboys enter this Thanksgiving Day divisional matchup with the Commanders riding a season-long two-game SU and ATS winning streak - that's right, season-long. As well as Dallas has played, consistency hasn't really been its calling card. The same goes for Washington and QB Sam Howell in particular. Howell is coming off a dreadful performance against the lowly Giants last Sunday, at home no less. The Commanders were upstaged by New York third-string QB Tommy DeVito, turning the football over a whopping six times in a 31-19 defeat. I do look for Washington to bounce back with a much sharper performance here, noting that it is a long-term 35-19 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of just 2.3 points in that situation. The Cowboys are a woeful 16-38 ATS in their last 54 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here, outscoring foes by only 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this situation sets up for visiting Bowling Green as it looks to head into Bowl season on a high note with a win in Kalamazoo on Tuesday. The Falcons gained Bowl eligibility thanks to a four-game winning streak from October 14th to November 8th. They saw that streak snapped at the hands of Toledo last week, albeit by the slimmest of margins (one point). I don't expect any sort of letdown, even as they've fallen out of contention for the MAC Championship. This is an experienced, well-coached team under Scott Loeffler and I like their chances of bouncing back against a Western Michigan squad that is simply playing out the string. While the motivation should certainly be there for the Broncos on Senior Night, not to mention the fact that they're coming off an ugly shutout defeat against Northern Illinois that ended their hopes of reaching a Bowl game, that doesn't mean the execution will be. The Broncos have been wildly inconsistent in their first year under head coach Lance Taylor. Western Michigan's offense has shown flashes of brilliance but will need to be extremely careful against a turnover and sack-happy Falcons defense on Tuesday. Last year, Bowling Green held Western Michigan to just nine points in a four-point victory. This time around, I think we see a lot more production out of the Falcons offense on their way to a seventh victory on the campaign. Take Bowling Green (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This is a rematch of last February's Super Bowl - a game where the Eagles were favored but ultimately fell by a score of 38-35. Revenge is of course a factor on Monday, but it's not really what this play is all about. I simply feel the Eagles are the superior team and suspect we'll be hearing whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' throughout the week before they almost certainly 'get right' with a two-game road jaunt to Las Vegas and Green Bay. The bye week came at the right time for the Eagles as it gave QB Jalen Hurts a chance to rest his ailing knee. The Philadelphia defense also comes out of the bye arguably as healthy as it has been all season. The Eagles have been a curious study on defense this year as they've dared teams to beat them through the air, all but stamping out opposing ground games entirely. Here, the Chiefs will likely get their yardage through the air but I question how many drives they can end with 7's rather than 3's. It's worth noting that Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown just 17 touchdown passes through nine games this season - a far cry from the 41 he amassed last season. While Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's post-bye week success has been well-documented, I expect his spectacular record in that situation to be put to the test here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The revenge-minded Seahawks will look to clean things up after a shaky but victorious performance at home against the Commanders last week. You may remember the Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle back in Week 1. They're unlikely to catch Seattle flat-footed again here, however. The Rams have appeared in complete disarray during their current three-game SU and ATS slide and I'm not convinced their bye week will help them out in any way. The Seahawks would be well-advised to take advantage of this winnable matchup as their schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher with their next four games coming at home against the 49ers (on Thanksgiving), at the Cowboys, at the 49ers and at home against the Eagles. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As difficult as it is to do, we'll fade the Cowboys off their 49-point explosion against the hapless Giants last week. The Panthers have just one victory both SU and ATS this season, that coming on October 29th against the upstart Texans. Note that while they're 1-3 at home this season, only one of those losses came by more than eight points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys check in 2-3 SU on the road this season with their lone win by more than three points coming way back in their Week 1 rout of the Giants. Note that Dallas is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. The Panthers are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games after scoring 17 points or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the setup for the underdog Cardinals here as they look rejuvenated with QB Kyler Murray back at the helm and catch the Texans in a massive letdown spot off last Sunday's stunning road win in Cincinnati. Arizona has proven to be a 'tough out' under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon this season and last week's offensive breakout led by Murray and fast-emerging TE Trey McBride has it brimming with confidence heading into this 'spoiler' spot against the upstart Texans. Houston has been involved in three straight barn-burners - all decided by three points or less. While this team may never' hit the wall in their first season under the guidance of head coach DeMeco Ryans, I do think they get tripped up at some point during this three-game homestand, noting they've yet to notch more than two victories in a row this season. Arizona checks in 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of seven points or less while Houston is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 contests following an upset victory. Take Arizona (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since the Steelers stunned them in a 26-22 victory in Pittsburgh on September 18th. The Steelers gained only 255 total yards in that game but turnovers were the story. The Browns have now lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury but I don't expect them to fold the tent as a result. Everything is still in front of Cleveland after last week's upset win in Baltimore as it sits at 6-3 on the season in a crowded AFC North. This is a key spot with a sneaky-difficult two-game road jaunt to Denver and Los Angeles (vs. the Rams) on deck. Take Cleveland (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's been an incredible 10-0 start to the season for Washington and it deserves all the credit for that flawless record. I do expect it to fall for the first time on Saturday, however, as it heads to Corvallis to face a revenge-minded Oregon State squad. The Beavers dropped last year's matchup against the Huskies 24-21. That was in Seattle. Oregon State sports a perfect 5-0 record at home this season, most recently crushing Stanford by a 62-17 score last Saturday. I don't think the Beavers defense gets enough credit, overshadowed by that explosive offensive that showed up against the Cardinal last week. The Huskies have been in close game after close game lately and have certainly shown signs of wear defensively, allowing 108 points over their last three contests. Take Oregon State (10*).

My selection is on Air Force minus the points over UNLV at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

UNLV has enjoyed a tremendous season and would appear to be catching Air Force at the right time as the Falcons have lost each of their last two games SU and ATS. With that being said, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Runnin' Rebels stylistically-speaking, and look for the Falcons to prevail. Air Force's defense continues to play well but the offense has been stuck in the mud over the last couple of games. I'm confident the Falcons can bounce back against a beatable UNLV defense here, noting that the Rebels have allowed 120+ rushing yards in four of their last five games, despite game script favoring them in most contests. It hasn't mattered what UNLV has thrown at Air Force defensively in the last couple of seasons, with the Falcons racking up nearly 1,000 total yards while scoring 90 points in two meetings. Take Air Force (8*).

My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Colorado at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Washington State's current slide has really come out of nowhere. The Cougars got off to a terrific start this season before dropping six straight games and now even Bowl eligibility is in doubt as they need to win out, knowing that a very difficult matchup against in-state rival Washington lies ahead next week. Nevertheless, I do look for Washington State to finally turn in a complete performance and right the ship against a similarly sliding foe in Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes have actually managed to win each of their last three games ATS but that's of little consolation as they've lost four in a row SU and will also need to win out to go 'Bowling' with a tough road tilt against Utah on deck next week. I simply like the Cougars advantages on defense here. They can't stop the run but that's by no means Colorado's m.o. on offense. Washington State did shine offensively last week against California, nearly pulling off a furious fourth quarter rally. It should be able to get loose again versus a Buffaloes squad that appears to be running out of gas having been licked for 124, 218, 195 and 211 rushing yards over their last four games. Take Washington State (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I can't help but feel the Bengals got caught overlooking the upstart Texans last Sunday, as many other teams have, or almost have this season. That loss snapped Cincinnati's four-game winning streak and put it in tough position here as it needs a win to avoid following three wins behind Baltimore in the AFC North standings. I do think the Bengals are one of those teams where the 'revenge' angle matters. We saw it in play to a certain extent a few weeks ago as Cincinnati went on the road and defeated San Francisco (after dropping a heartbreaker against the Niners at home in Joe Burrow's rookie season two years ago). Here, the Bengals will be looking to avenge an earlier 27-24 home loss against the Ravens, when Joe Burrow clearly wasn't right dealing with a calf injury earlier in the campaign. Baltimore also got caught overlooking its opponent last Sunday as it dropped a last-second decision against the division-rival Browns. While I don't believe the Ravens are as bad as they looked in the second half of that game, I also don't think they're as invincible as they appeared during their recent four-game winning streak. Home team has meant plenty in this series with the hosts winning four of the last five matchups. With that being said, you would have to go back three meetings here in Baltimore to find the last time the Ravens defeated the Bengals by more than two points. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bills have now dropped the cash in five straight games after last week's 24-18 setback in Cincinnati. While their offense bogged down in that game, their banged-up defense actually held up well against an elite offense. If there's one thing the Broncos have done well lately it's run the football but Buffalo has actually done a tremendous job of snuffing out opposing ground attacks over its last three contests, yielding just 3.6 yards per rush. Denver, on the other hand, has been torched on the ground, allowing a ridiculous 6.1 yards per rush on the road this season. If the Bills can get their ground game going early on Monday, it could be lights out in a hurry as Josh Allen draws a smash spot against the Broncos 'one-trick pony' pass defense here. Buffalo desperately needs to take advantage of this two-game homestand that also includes a date with the Jets next week before a brutal stretch that includes road games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Chargers and a home contest against the Cowboys. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I generally look to fade the Commanders off a win at the best of times but here we have their opponent in a smash spot as well as the Seahawks return home following a lifeless performance in Baltimore last week. Washington has relied heavily on dual-threat QB Sam Howell to keep its offense afloat without a ground game to speak of this season. That spells trouble in situations such as this, however, where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind. Seattle has struggled to lift the lid off its offense in recent weeks after showing so much promise early in the campaign (it scored exactly 37 points in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina in September). This looks like a potential breakout spot against a Washington squad that has already allowed 30+ points on five different occasions this season and certainly didn't get any better defensively but cutting ties with pass-rush specialists Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Note that Washington is averaging a woeful 14.5 points per game the last six times it has come off an upset win on the road, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers have taken full advantage of back-to-back favorable primetime matchups against the Bears and Jets but now take a big step up in class as they host the rested Lions on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is coming off its bye week which gave it the opportunity to get healthy on offense with RB David Montgomery, LG Jonah Jackson and C Frank Ragnow set to return. That's positive news for QB Jared Goff, especially when you consider Montgomery can not only produce yards on the ground and through the air but is also one of the league's best blocking backs. The Chargers offense is predicated on balance which doesn't bode particularly well here with the Lions allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season. Only one of Detroit's eight opponents has managed to rush for 100 or more yards this season. With eight of the Lions last nine games coming indoors, they're well-positioned to take flight and I think it all starts with this road tilt on Sunday. Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on Florida plus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Gators are running out of real estate if they want to gain Bowl eligibility this season as they have this game followed by a difficult road test against Missouri and a home date with rival Florida State left on the schedule. I look for them to give the Tigers all they can handle on Saturday in the Bayou. Florida was routed against Georgia two weeks ago and then fell just short as a favorite against Arkansas last Saturday. It's been a rough ride for the Gators and while they're by no means an elite team, they do have enough talent to hang with most teams in the SEC on a good night. The Tigers had reeled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS before it all came crashing down against rival Alabama last Saturday. As a whole, LSU has been a disappointment this season, losing three games and going a modest 5-4 ATS along the way. The Tigers have had their hands full with the Gators essentially every year since 2011, when they crushed Florida by a 41-11 score. This doesn't look like the LSU team that suddenly regains complete control in this series. Take Florida (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not out on Washington State just yet. The Cougars have lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch but I think they're in a smash spot against Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears have dropped four games in a row and are a woeful 3-6 ATS on the campaign including 1-6 over their last seven contests. Washington State's recent slide has really come out of nowhere as it started the campaign with four straight wins and also gave UCLA and Oregon all it could handle in a couple of October road games. That's why I'm not ready to give up on the Cougars. Cal has employed a matador-like defense, yielding 203, 317, 128 and 153 rushing yards over its last four games. The Bears have been torched for 369 and 444 passing yards over the last two contests. Enough said. Take Washington State (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Wyoming at 10:45 pm et on Friday.

While few are paying much attention, the Runnin' Rebels have a special thing going in Las Vegas this season. They're off to a 7-2 start to the campaign and still have more runway in front of them with three games left on the schedule, including this matchup with Wyoming on Friday night. UNLV demolished New Mexico State by a 56-14 score last Saturday, on the road no less. It's been a case of no Doug Brumfield, no problem for the Runnin' Rebels offense as backup QB Jayden Maiava has stepped in and performed admirably. UNLV boasts a multi-pronged offensive attack that is a handful for the best of defenses and I certainly wouldn't put Wyoming in that category. Yes, the Cowboys have come up big at times this season, most recently last Friday as they secured Bowl eligibility with a 24-15 home win over Colorado State. This isn't a team that travels well, however, noting that Wyoming has gone 0-3 away from home this season, albeit against tough opposition in Texas, Air Force and Boise State, losing those three games by a combined 53 points. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley continues to struggle, noting that as a team, they've completed more than 18 passes in a game just once this season and that came in a contest where they threw for just 199 yards against Fresno State. Last Friday, the ground attack exploded led by RB Harrison Waylee but again, those performances have been few and far between this season. Wyoming has owned this series for the most part, taking the most recent two meetings by 36 and 31 points. Those came back in 2019 and 2020, however. The Runnin' Rebels are a much different team right now and I look for them to prove it again in front of a national audience on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Ordinarily I wouldn't want any part of backing a team coming off consecutive blowout wins, playing at home against an opponent that doesn't exactly draw a great deal of motivation. Here, I'm willing to make an exception, however. Virginia reeled off five straight ATS wins from late September through October but that streak ended with a thud in a 45-17 home loss against Georgia Tech on Saturday, ending the Cavaliers faint hopes of becoming Bowl eligible. There was no way the Yellow Jackets were going to be caught sleep-walking in that matchup after Virginia upset North Carolina and nearly did the same against Miami, both on the road. I'm not about to chalk the Cavaliers up as road warriors, however, and I see this as a complete mismatch against Louisville. The Cardinals have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the country this season, all but snuffing out opposing ground attacks entirely, which really puts a wrench in what the Cavaliers want to do on Thursday. Louisville also knows how to take the air out of the football and put games away after building a lead here at home, notching victories by 28 points over Boston College, 13 points over Notre Dame, 23 points over Duke and most recently 31 points over Virginia Tech last Saturday. The schedule will get much tougher for the Cardinals over the final two weeks of the regular season as they travel to Miami before hosting in-state rival Kentucky. Look for Louisville to make the most of this ramp-up game on Thursday, noting that it is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 lined home contests while Virginia is a woeful 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after winning five or six of its last seven contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Louisville (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'll take my chances grabbing the points with the Jets in what projects as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night in New Jersey. Note that these two teams were involved in a high-scoring shootout the last time they met in 2020. On that day, the Jets nearly staged a massive upset (as 10-point underdogs) on the road, with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, despite Chargers QB Justin Herbert completing 37-of-49 passes for 347 yards (Los Angeles won by only six points). We've already seen the Jets employ smart strategies in similarly tough home matchups this season, holding the likes of Buffalo and Philadelphia to just 16 and 14 points in a pair of upset victories. Jets QB Zach Wilson is likely to be under duress all night long but I have confidence in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson's ability to come up with enough big plays to keep the Chargers defense honest. Los Angeles hasn't been able to find a consistent ground attack this season, making it unlikely it will be able to 'take the air out of the football' should it build a lead in this contest. The Jets have done a tremendous job of stamping out opposing passing games, allowing 268 passing yards or less in all seven games to date. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys seem to generally have a small margin for error when they step up in class for games such as this one, particularly on the road. They turned in a near-perfect performance at home against the Rams last Sunday, particularly on the defensive side of the football, yet still only forced one turnover. The 'well has run dry' so to speak in that department as they've failed to force more than a single turnover in any of their last three games - something I do think they'll need to do in order to reach the win column on Sunday. While something like turnovers isn't really predictable, I do think we can count on the Eagles to put a supreme focus on taking care of the football on Sunday after they coughed it up a whopping eight times over the last three games (they still won two of those three contests). The Cowboys check in a woeful 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after recording a home win by 21 points or more. Worse still, they're a long-term 16-37 ATS after delivering five or six ATS wins in their last seven games, which is also the situation here (5-2 ATS this season). The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.1 points. Meanwhile, the home team has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the lone road cover over that stretch coming by way of Dallas in a regular season finale where it was favored by 6.5 points in 2022 (Gardner Minshew started that game for Philadelphia). Take Philadelphia (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Saturday.

The Cougars have fallen on hard times after a terrific start to the season, dropping four games in a row while going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. They looked like they simply ran out of gas in their second straight road game last week as they lost outright as four-point favorites in Tempe. I like the bounce-back spot for Washington State here as it hosts Stanford, which gave mighty Washington all it could handle as a big underdog in Seattle last Saturday. The Cardinal are still just one game removed from a 42-7 home loss against UCLA. There was also a 42-6 beatdown at the hands of Oregon in late September. In other words, the Cardinal are extremely inconsistent. I was high on Washington State at the start of the season and despite its rough ride recently, I still believe this team has the potential to make some noise down the stretch, culminating with a big opportunity to play spoiler against rival Washington in the Apple Cup on November 25th. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when coming off a contest where they didn't force a single turnover, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.4 points in that situation. Take Washington State (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Florida State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Florida State is rolling right now having won eight straight games to open the campaign including each of its last three ATS. I look for its ATS winning streak to come to an end on Saturday, however, as it faces a bit of a tough spot to get up for against a 2-6 Pittsburgh squad. We know the Panthers will be up for this one after nothing went right for them in last week's 58-7 drubbing in South Bend. Keep in mind, Pitt had been playing competitive football - the last time we saw it on this field it laid waste to a good Louisville team by a 38-21 score. Of its six losses this season, last week's was the first to come by more than 17 points. There's a level of unfamiliarity between these two conference foes, noting they've met only twice all-time with the most recent coming in 2020 (Pitt won that game 41-17 in Tallahassee). Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over Arizona State at 2 pm et on Saturday.

The Utes were crushed 35-6 at home against Oregon last week. They're not a team built for coming back from big deficits, not with QB Cam Rising sidelined, and it showed as that contest got away from them in a hurry. Here, I expect a much different game script to unfold as Utah looks to bounce back at home against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are in a certain letdown spot after snapping their six-game losing streak with an upset win at home against Washington State last week. Arizona State is still going nowhere this season and will be hard-pressed to find another win on its remaining schedule. I look for the Utes to clamp down defensively while their offense rebounds following last week's putrid performance (they had scored exactly 34 points in consecutive games entering that contest). Take Utah (8*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Really tough spot for the Browns here after they 'left it all on the field' in last week's wild, high-scoring win in Indianapolis. The Seahawks had what amounted to a scrimmage at home against the Cardinals and should be no worse for wear entering this game. In fact, Seattle is expected to be stronger with WR D.K. Metcalf likely to return. The Browns lost key backup RB Jerome Ford last week so it's the Kareem Hunt show this Sunday. That's not to mention the fact that QB P.J. Walker with his pop-gun arm will remain under center against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

UNLV has a good thing going this season even if few are paying much attention. The Runnin' Rebels have already gained Bowl eligibility with their sixth win of the season coming last week against Colorado State. They've got their sights set on much bigger goals, however, as they go after an elusive Mountain West Conference title. Taking down Fresno State, which checks in with an identical 6-1 record this season, would certainly be a step in the right direction. Note that while the Rebels have lost five straight matchups in this series, they've been right there in each of the last two seasons, losing by just eight and seven points. This year's UNLV squad is arguably much better than both of those teams, yet it isn't being offered much respect in the betting marketplace. Fresno State has beaten up on some awful teams this season and also lost a game as a five-point favorite on the road against Wyoming. The Bulldogs marquee win came back in Week 1 on the road against Purdue as QB Mikey Keene balled out with nearly 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. His status remains up in the air for this game as he continues to recover from injury. Backup Logan Fife has performed admirably in his absence but he's not the same playmaker Keene is. Regardless who is under center for Fresno State on Saturday, I believe UNLV has the personnel to keep pace. Put the Bulldogs on 'upset alert' as we grab all the points we can get with the Rebels. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The injury to Georgia TE Brock Bowers seems to have a lot of bettors a little spooked as we head into this pre-Halloween rivalry tilt between the Bulldogs and Gators in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs have been a massive disappointment from a betting perspective this season, going 1-5-1 ATS to date but I look for them to shake loose for a convincing victory on Saturday. Florida is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins - those were much-needed following a modest 3-2 start to the campaign. But the Gators bye week probably came at the worst time and now they need to get rolling from a standing start against arguably the best team in the country. Note that Georgia has dominated Florida lately, taking the last three meetings by 16, 27 and 22 points. I don't think there's any reason to believe this edition of the Gators can keep things any closer, even if the oddsmakers anticipate otherwise. Note that only two of Georgia's seven games to date have been decided by fewer than 17 points. Take Georgia (8*).

My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Orange have gone into a tailspin since their 4-0 start, dropping each of their last three games. Of course, they've run the gauntlet lately going up against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State and won't get any sort of a breather travelling to Blacksburg to face the Hokies on Thursday. I do like their chances of rebounding here, however, with many of their key parts still on board from the 2021 team that prevailed by a 41-36 score in Blacksburg almost two years to the day. If there was one positive for Syracuse to take away from its ugly 41-3 rout at the hands of Florida State last time out it was that it kept Seminoles QB Jordan Travis' running under wraps. That at least gave the Orange a good sense of the speed they'll be facing at quarterback this week in the form of Hokies dual-threat QB Kyron Drones. Virginia Tech is coming off a 30-13 win over Wake Forest - a game in which Drones threw for over 300 yards. That's certainly not his game, noting that it was the first time this season he threw for more than 228 yards. If Drones tries to attack the Orange too often through the air in this one he's likely to be punished for any mistakes by the outstanding DB duo of Alijah Clark and Justin Barron who have inexplicably produced just two interceptions so far this season. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has been sacked a whopping nine times during the team's current three-game losing streak. I do think the extra week of practice should work in his favor here as the Orange offensive line certainly had some issues that needed to be worked out. I would anticipate the Orange getting Shrader on the move more than we've seen in recent weeks after he got bogged down by tough North Carolina and Florida State defenses over the last couple of games. The Hokies defensive front poses a difficult challenge as well but at least Shrader has played (and succeeded) in this environment before - he threw for 236 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 174 yards and three scores in that 2021 matchup on this field. Take Syracuse (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles bandwagon was effectively cleared following last Sunday's upset loss against the Jets. Here, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia bounce back against the red hot Dolphins. Miami looks unstoppable on offense but its defense remains vulnerable. The Fins were fortunate to face two punch-drunk offenses in the Giants and Panthers over the last two weeks. They'll face a much different animal this week as the Eagles return home in a foul mood after being perplexed by the Jets defense last Sunday. Philadelphia still has an elite offense while its defense can hold serve just enough to ultimately extend the margin against Miami. Note that the Eagles are 45-24 ATS in their last 69 home games after losing two of their last three contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions are rolling off four straight wins but I look for that streak to grind to a halt on Sunday in Baltimore. Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery for this game and that's a key development as he's one of the best blocking backs in football in addition to his production on the ground. Head coach Dan Campbell has indicated that rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will have a full workload but I expect him to struggle in multiple facets here. Detroit has had a difficult time defending opposing tight ends which sets this up as a smash spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Note that the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Lions are a woeful 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here. Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The betting market seems spooked by the presence of former Division-II quarterback Tyson Bagent making his first career start for the Bears. Keep in mind, Bagent turned in an impressive preseason campaign, winning the backup QB job. We'll gladly fade the Raiders as a road favorite as they look to string together a third straight victory. Neither of their last two wins were particularly impressive as they slipped past the Packers and Patriots at home. Those wins had more to do with the ineffectiveness of their opposition than their own sharp play. Note that Las Vegas has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season, nor has it rushed for 100 or more yards. The only other time we saw it travel for an early kickoff it fell by a 38-10 score in Buffalo. The Bears are not the Bills but I expect them to give the Raiders plenty of trouble in the Windy City on Sunday. Las Vegas has dropped the cash in six straight games as a road favorite. Take Chicago (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford pulled off a stunning come-from-behind victory over Colorado last week, taking full advantage of a young Buffaloes squad that is still learning how to take the air out of the football and close out a game. The Cardinal won't be so fortunate here as they host a UCLA squad that will surely be in a foul mood following a turnover-fuelled loss at Oregon State last week. In that contest, the Bruins approached 500 total yards of offense for a second straight game but coughed up the football three times. That's something you simply can't do against a team as good as Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Chip Kelly's Bruins get right back on track this week as they face a Cardinal squad that doesn't do anything particularly well. Stanford did catch a spark with its passing game last week, throwing for a season-high 399 yards. Note that UCLA has allowed just 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season and has been even better against the run, yielding only 2.3 yards per rush. Take UCLA (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Washington State limps into this matchup on the heels of consecutive losses but I look for the Cougars to give the Ducks all they can handle on Saturday. Last year, Washington State let Oregon off the hook at home, leading 17-9 at halftime but ultimately fell in a 44-41 thriller. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Cougars managed to secure a victory and while they'll be hard-pressed to do so in Eugene on Saturday, I do think they can give the Ducks a run. Oregon came out on the wrong end of a 36-33 decision on the road against Washington last Saturday. Note that the Ducks are a long-term 20-37 ATS when coming off a road defeat, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 point on average in that situation. The Cougars have turned the football over seven times during their two-game losing streak but they should be happy to face the Ducks, noting that they've forced a single turnover or less in five of six games so far this season. Take Washington State (10*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Boston College has found something over its last couple of games, both victories over Virginia and Army, rushing for a total of 504 yards while continuing its incredibly consistent scoring pace. The Eagles have put up at least 24 points in all six games this season - a welcome change for a program that seemed to be stuck in the mud offensively in recent years. That's more than can be said for Georgia Tech, which is coming off a thrilling 23-20 win over Miami (the Hurricanes let the Yellow Jackets off the hook in that game by electing not to take a knee in the final minute). Were it not for that gaffe by Miami we would be talking about a Georgia Tech squad that is 2-4 this season. Also note that the Yellow Jackets are yielding 5.1 yards per rush this season, opening the door for the underdog Eagles to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday. You would have to go back four matchups in this series - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time the Yellow Jackets defeated the Eagles by more than a field goal. I can't help but feel this one will be nip-and-tuck all the way. Take Boston College (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Marshall plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Marshall got off to a red hot 4-0 start to the season but has since lost consecutive road games to fall to 4-2, dropping all the way back to fifth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings. I like the bounce-back spot for the Thundering Herd on Thursday as they host undefeated James Madison. The Dukes will be looking for their fourth road win of the season, a feat they didn't accomplish all of last year. Marshall has proven tough on the opposition here at home where it checks in a perfect 3-0. This will be a 'revenge game' for James Madison after it dropped a 26-12 decision as a 9.5-point home favorite against Marshall. Of course, revenge is generally a dish best served at home and I like the Thundering Herd's chances of holding serve behind a big game from QB Cam Fancher and RB Rasheen Ali. James Madison has seen many of its opponents abandon the run but I don't believe that will be the case with Marshall, noting that it has ripped off more than 100 rushing yards in all six games this season. Take Marshall (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The road team has won three straight meetings in this series but I look for that streak to come to an end on Saturday in Seattle. Oregon has turned in three straight near-perfect performances, crushing Hawaii 55-10 before dismantling Colorado and Stanford by identical 42-6 scores. The Ducks figure to get a wake-up call on Saturday, however, as they take on fellow undefeated Pac-12 squad Washington. The Huskies boast one of the most innovative offensive attacks in college football this season, perhaps taking a page out of the Ducks book. Washington was involved in more of a fight than expected last Saturday as it outlasted Arizona by a touchdown in Tucson. Here, I look for the Huskies defense to pave the way as they should be able to get home against Ducks QB Bo Nix on numerous occasions. We know what to expect from the Washington offense but I believe it's defense remains underrated, even as we approach the midpoint of October. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Maryland predictably dropped its first game of the season last week in Columbus, falling by 20 points after getting off to a fast start against the Buckeyes. The Terrapins needed to turn in a perfectly clean performance to contend with mighty Ohio State but ended up giving the Buckeyes a pair of extra possessions by way of turnovers. That left enough daylight for Ohio State to run away with the game late. Here, I look for Maryland to bounce back as it hosts a listless Illinois squad that is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS this season, most recently failing to show up in a big primetime home game against Nebraska. That was a win the Illini needed but didn't come close to getting. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat here. This will be the Terps fifth home game already this season and they've blasted away on this field, averaging 5.2 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Any progress the Illini have made on the road has come in garbage time for the most part in lopsided losses at Kansas and Purdue. Take Maryland (8*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over California at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Utah has had two weeks to figure things out following an ugly 21-7 loss to Oregon State. The Utes still have everything in front of them, sitting at 4-1 on the season. With that being said, they've looked punch-drunk on offense with QB Cam Rising sidelined. He's unlikely to play again this week but I look for a much sharper performance from the Utes against a Cal defense that has taken a pounding to this point, most recently allowing 52 points against aforementioned Oregon State last week. Speaking of taking a pounding, the Bears ground attack has been relied upon heavily and is starting to show some signs of wear with Jaydn Ott forced to leave last week's game but likely to return in time for Saturday's contest. I'm not sure it matters who the Bears have out there on Saturday, the Utes defense should feast. Utah checks in having allowed just 59 points through five games this season. Even if the Utes offense sputters again, the defense should be up to the task against a Cal offense that has committed multiple turnovers in four of six games this season. Take Utah (8*).

My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday.

Fresno State fell out of the top-25 rankings following last week's upset loss at Wyoming. The Bulldogs lost QB Mikey Keene to an ankle injury in that game and with word coming out that he's unlikely to play on Friday, this line has shifted toward Utah State. I don't agree with the move, noting that Keene's backup, Logan Fife, was arguably the front-runner for the starting job heading into fall camp and he should relish the opportunity to take over the reins in a big bounce-back game for the team on Friday. Fife knows the playbook having seen action in each of the last two seasons. While he has by no means thrived, turnovers have been the biggest issue. The good news is, he'll be facing a sieve-like Utah State defense on Friday. The Aggies rallied from an early 17-0 deficit to blast Colorado State by 20 points last week. I expect them to find the going much tougher against a terrific Fresno State defense on Friday. The strength in the Bulldogs defense lies in the second and third levels, and that's precisely where Aggies QB Cooper Legas likes to attack. I would worry about Legas getting a little over-zealous after he successfully bombed away on a bad Colorado State defense last week. Legas, like Fife, has been turnover-prone throughout his college career but the difference here is that Fresno State has the ball-hawkers on defense to take advantage of any mistakes. I think we can forgive the Bulldogs for a flat performance in Laramie last week. Keep in mind this is a team used to playing in front of 40,000+ in Fresno, nearly double what Wyoming (or Utah State) draws. Look for them to get their season back on track in this primetime affair. Take Fresno State (8*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Dana Holgorsen's Houston Cougars. They're off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season, most recently blown out by Texas Tech in Lubbock on September 30th. It's not too late to turn things around but bagging a victory over Holgorsen's former team is paramount with a home date with Texas on deck before back-to-back sneaky-tough road tilts at Kansas State and Baylor. With only two victories to date, the Cougars could run out of real estate in a hurry in terms of Bowl eligibility if they can't hold serve on Thursday. You could argue that the bye week came at an awful time for West Virginia as it was rolling after four straight wins including a 24-21 upset victory at TCU. The Mountaineers lost one of their best defenders in LB Trey Lathan to a scary knee injury in that contest. That's bad news for a West Virginia team that has been fuelled by its defense in the early going this season. These two offenses are almost mirror images of one another, led by mobile quarterbacks in Garrett Greene of the Mountaineers and Donovan Smith of the Cougars. I like Houston's advantage with former West Virginia standouts RB Tony Mathis and WR Samuel Brown poised to ball out. For my money, Brown is the best offensive player on the field in this matchup. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Sam Houston State plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

Sam Houston State checks into this game sporting an 0-5 record on the season. Even if it could get just a little something out of its offense it might be in a much different situation right now. I think it's only a matter of time before the Bearkats pick up that first victory in FBS play and New Mexico State could very well be ripe for the picking. It's not as if the Aggies are setting the world on fire offensively. They hung 34 points on a bad Florida International team last week but 17 of those came in the fourth quarter. They're just one game removed from scoring only 17 points in a loss at Hawaii. While I do like New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia, Sam Houston State has the talent on defense to keep him under wraps all night long. The Bearkats offense did make some progress last week as QB Keegan Shoemaker threw for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also added 52 yards on the ground. I don't expect this team to be discouraged by its 0-5 start noting that it isn't eligible for a Bowl game in its first year in the FBS anyway. Take Sam Houston State (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers check into this road tilt sporting an 0-4 record with QB Bryce Young struggling in his rookie campaign. I think Carolina's offense can get going a little bit in favorable conditions indoors in Detroit on Sunday while we'll gladly fade the Lions coming off consecutive double-digit victories. The Packers didn't look ready for the Lions at all in last week's matchup and Detroit ultimately rolled to a 14-point victory. While Detroit is now 3-1 on the season, it's worth noting that it has gone a long-term 22-42 ATS when coming off three victories in its last four games, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. The Panthers on the other hand have been outscored by a minuscule average margin of 0.8 points the last 66 times they've come off three ATS defeats in their last four contests, as is the case here. These two teams just met last Christmas Eve with the Panthers prevailing by a decisive 37-23 margin. For whatever reason, Carolina seems to match up well with Detroit, taking three of four matchups since 2017 with its lone loss over that stretch coming by a single point here in the Motor City in 2018. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*).

AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday.

This game will get top billing thanks to the fact that both teams enter with flawless records. I expect it to be no contest, however, as Georgia proves why it is the 'Big Dawg' so to speak in SEC play. Kentucky threw a knockout punch early against Florida last week, ultimately sending the Gators spiralling down the drain in what turned out to be a rather lifeless performance. The Wildcats aren't likely to catch the Bulldogs off guard here though, not after giving them all they could handle in a 16-6 loss last season. Georgia is off to a disappointing 0-4-1 ATS start but it's worth noting that it was favored by 40 or more points in three of those games. This is the part of the schedule where I expect the Dawgs to really get rolling as they play three of their next five games in Athens with a showdown with the rival Gators in Jacksonville mixed in. Kentucky can get right back on track next week as it hosts Missouri, but here I look for it to come away looking rather ordinary. Note that Georgia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite priced between 10.5 and 21 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 29.8 points along the way. Take Georgia (8*).

My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Hokies are coming off a blowout win over a disappointing Pittsburgh squad last week so it may appear to be a bargain catching 3+ touchdowns as they go up against Florida State on Saturday. The Seminoles, however, are coming off their bye week and one of the best teams in the entire nation. I expect Florida State to make yet another statement here. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech has lost its two previous road games by 19 points at Rutgers and seven points at Marshall. The Hokies are in a bit of a state of flux right now with QB Grant Wells nursing an injury and ineffective at the best of times. Virginia Tech has completed fewer than 20 passes in all five games so far this season and that's telling when you consider it has been playing from behind most of the way. Look for the 'Noles to get whatever they want on offense en route to a lopsided victory. Take Florida State (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game off their bye week. I think it came at precisely the right time for Chip Kelly's Bruins as they had plenty to sort out following an ugly 14-7 road loss against Utah. Meanwhile, Washington State probably wanted to keep its foot on the gas after a red hot 4-0 start that included a thrilling 38-35 home win over Oregon State on September 23rd. It's tough for the betting marketplace to glean much from UCLA's 3-1 start. The wins were of the lukewarm variety over Coastal Carolina and San Diego State before a predictable blowout victory over FCS opponent N.C. Central. This is obviously a key spot for the Bruins before heading out on the road for consecutive games against Oregon State and Stanford where a split is likely the best they can hope for. For Washington State, it gets a winnable home date with Arizona next before travelling to face Oregon in a tough matchup. I think UCLA has an offense that will rip off plenty of big plays against a beatable Washington State defense on Saturday. While I do like the Cougars pass rush, we can anticipate the Bruins offensive line turning in a strong bounce-back showing off the poor performance against Utah. Take UCLA (10*).

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While Maryland enters this contest sporting a perfect 5-0 record, I think this is the game where its offensive line woes come home to roost, so to speak. The Terrapins have reeled off three straight ATS victories but will be taking a step up in class after lining up against Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Ohio State comes in fresh off its bye week, which came on the heels of a war against Notre Dame in South Bend - a game which the Buckeyes won by a score of 17-14. This game figures to be of the higher-scoring variety and that should favor Ohio State as Maryland simply doesn't have the horses to keep up in a potential shootout. I am high on Terps QB Taulia Tagovailoa, even going so far as to say he's one of, if not the most underrated quarterback in the country this year. With that said, I expect him to be under duress for most of the game on Saturday. The Terps have benefited from a whopping 12 turnovers by the opposition already this season. The shoe will be on the other foot on Saturday. Note that Maryland is a long-term 19-34 ATS when coming off a home win over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Ohio State (8*).

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Nebraska at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Illinois bandwagon cleared following its 34-23 road loss against Kansas back in Week 2 (also on a Friday night). Since then, the Illini have done nothing to win bettors back, sandwiching lopsided defeats against Penn State and Purdue around a narrow home win over Florida Atlantic. I do see this as a 'get right' game for the Illini off last week's beatdown at the hands of Purdue. Illinois has a lot more going for it than Nebraska right now in my opinion. We've seen the Illini turn the tables on the Cornhuskers over the last few seasons, reeling off three straight wins in this series after dropping four in a row previously. I don't believe this is the Huskers squad to turn the tide in this series. Nebraska gave QB Heinrich Haarberg the start against Michigan last Saturday after he turned in an eye-popping performance against Louisiana Tech. The problem is, much of his success has come on the ground, not through the air. Michigan laid out a pretty good blueprint for stopping Haarberg last Saturday, as he was sacked four times and gained -2 yards on nine rush attempts. He has now completed just 38-of-72 passes this season. The Illini have a true dual-threat quarterback in Luke Altmyer. He was lifted for backup John Paddock late in last week's game at Purdue after the Boilermakers raced out to an insurmountable lead in the third quarter. I like the bounce-back spot for Altmyer and the Illini as a whole on Friday. WR Isaiah Williams has gotten going over the last couple of games, racking up 233 receiving yards on 14 catches. He's capable of laying waste to a Huskers defense that was dusted for 170 yards by Colorado WR Xavier Weaver earlier this season. Take Illinois (10*).

Conference-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State minus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Middle Tennessee State got punched in the mouth on the road against Western Kentucky last week and ultimately couldn't overcome an off night from QB Nicholas Vattiato in a 31-10 defeat. The Blue Raiders are now just 1-4 on the season making this virtually a must-win game if they want to sniff out Bowl eligibility with seven games remaining on the schedule. Jacksonville State is well on its way in its first year of FBS play, reeling off four wins in its first five contests including an overtime victory at Sam Houston State last week. You know what you're going to get from the Gamecocks. They're going to run the football and look to create chaos on defense. The good news for the Blue Raiders is that stopping the run has been their calling card under long-time head coach Rick Stockstill (they've yielded a mediocre 4.1 yards per rush this season). This was always going to be a critical two-game road stretch for Jacksonville State and it has already earned at least a split. It's an equally critical two-game homestand for Middle Tennessee State with a matchup against a sneaky-good Louisiana Tech squad on deck next week. I think the Blue Raiders have a lot more upside on offense than they showed against a good Western Kentucky team last week. Their ground game has just gotten going recently, ripping off 217, 151 and 127 rushing yards over their last three games. Jacksonville State is up-and-coming but Middle Tennessee State has been doing it at this level for years, reaching eight Bowl games in the last 13 years including each of the last two (it defeated San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl last year). This may be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders but I expect them to rise to the occasion at home on Wednesday. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*).

AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*).

My selection is on TCU minus the points over West Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Everyone was quick to point out that TCU was in line for a down year following its season-opening loss to Prime's Colorado Buffaloes. Of course, it was always going to be extremely difficult for the Horned Frogs to match last season's success but that doesn't mean it has to be a 'down year'. I like how TCU has responded since that setback, reeling off three straight wins in blowout fashion (with little fanfare). The fact that few are paying much attention to the Horned Frogs right now gives us the opportunity to back them at a reasonable price at home against West Virginia on Saturday. The Mountaineers have also responded to a season-opening loss with three straight victories. All three of those came at home, however. I suspect they're in for a rude awakening here as they run into a TCU team that has found its rhythm on offense and appears to be locked-in defensively, allowing just 2.5 yards per rush this season. Given the way the Horned Frogs have snuffed out opposing ground attacks, if West Virginia can't get its passing game going early it's likely to be a long night. Note that the Mountaineers have only thrown for 636 yards in total through four games. Take TCU (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm just as high on Kansas as most but I think it's in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday as it travels to Austin to face the Longhorns. Both teams check in a perfect 4-0 on the season but as you know, all records aren't created equal. The Jayhawks best win arguably came last week at home against BYU but the Cougars are a much easier opponent to handle when you get them away from Lavell-Edwards Stadium. Texas has a 10-point win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa to its credit and absolutely lambasted Baylor in Waco last week, rolling to a 38-6 victory. The Longhorns took a wild 57-56 home loss to Kansas in 2021 personally, responding with a 55-14 demolition in this matchup last year. That was on the road. Things certainly won't get easier for the Jayhawks in enemy territory this time around. Call me crazy but I actually like Kansas' offense a little more with QB Jason Bean at the helm. That's not a knock on Jalon Daniels. I simply think Bean should be more involved in the offseason, even with Daniels QB1. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a long-term 2-11 ATS when priced as a road underdog between 14 and 17.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing, outscored by an average margin of 27.0 points in that situation. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Virginia at 2 pm et on Saturday.

It's been a tough stretch for Virginia both as a football program and a school community in general following the events of last Fall. The Cavaliers are off to a predictable 0-4 start this season (they were priced as underdogs in all four games) and I'm not convinced this is the spot where they'll earn their first win of the campaign (that likely comes next week at home against FCS opponent William & Mary). Still searching for answers at the skill positions on offense, they'll have their hands full against a Boston College defense that will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting wrecked for 56 points on the road against Louisville last Saturday. That was an awful spot for the Eagles. This is a favorable one as they return home where we last saw them give potential national title contender Florida State all it could handle in an eventual 31-29 defeat. Here, we'll note that Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times it has played at home after trailing its previous game by 24 points or more at halftime, which is the situation it is in on Saturday, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that spot. Take Boston College (8*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kentucky over Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kentucky has defeated Florida in each of the last two seasons and there's little reason to believe that this is the Gators squad to rise up and end that streak. Florida has turned things around with three straight victories but I haven't forgotten its toothless performance on the road against Utah in its season-opener. The Wildcats have predictably dismantled all four of their opponents to date (they were favored by double-digits in all four games). I think we'll see Kentucky keep it rolling here, knowing it is likely headed for its first loss of the campaign by way of a trip to Athens to face the number-one ranked Georgia Bulldogs next week. For the Gators, they can likely pick back up on their winning ways over the next two weeks as they host Vanderbilt before travelling to face South Carolina (those two games precede their own annual showdown with mighty Georgia). Kentucky has had a tendency to start fast in recent years, going 14-4 ATS in the first half of the season going back to 2021. In those games, it has outscored the opposition by an impressive average margin of 12.5 points. Florida falls into a tough spot here, noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a home victory. Take Kentucky (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Friday.

This is a massive revenge game for Oregon State after it dropped a lopsided 42-16 decision on the road against Utah last October. Not only that but the Beavers will be looking to bounce back from last week's debacle on the road against Washington State, in which they gave up a whopping 38 points and lost by a field goal. I do think Oregon State is a much better defensive team than it showed in that contest. Meanwhile, Utah was bailed out by its defense in last week's 14-7 snoozefest victory over UCLA. The Utes offense managed just north of 2.0 yards per rush and 117 yards through the air in that game. Clearly, Utah is missing QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. Their injury situations remain veiled in a cloud of mystery on a weekly basis. This is a game where I expect the Beavers to go to work with their ground attack and rely on their defense to come up with just enough splash plays to secure the victory by margin. Note that Oregon State is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run at home against Pac-12 opponents and those games haven't been particularly close as the Beavers have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.6 points along the way. The last time these two teams met in Corvallis two years ago the Beavers rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to win by a score of 42-34. I expect this one to be a little more straight-forward. Take Oregon State (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are off to solid 2-1 starts to the season. That was expected of the Lions, even if their path to get there has been a little surprising. Few gave the Packers much of a chance as they began the post-Aaron Rodgers era. However, Green Bay has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and I think that will prove to be the case again on Thursday. The Packers find themselves in a rare 'triple revenge' spot in this series having dropped the last three matchups going back to early 2022. They actually did a tremendous job of containing a terrific Lions offense in last season's two meetings, allowing a grand total of 35 points and holding WR Amon-Ra St-Brown to just 104 scoreless yards. While most consider Jordan Love a considerable downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, he won't have too high of expectations thrown his way after Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes and four interceptions against Detroit last season. Love is expected to get some help this week with the return of RB Aaron Jones and the season debut of WR Christian Watson. I expect both to make an impact. Defensively, the Packers have some work to do at the back-end, especially if Jaire Alexander is forced to miss his second straight game. The good news is, the Lions offense hasn't been quite the same on the road, with Jared Goff looking like a completely different quarterback away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Green Bay pass rush specialist Rashan Gary has looked like a man on a mission after last year's devastating ACL injury and is a true game-wrecker on the line. Here, we'll note that the Lions are a long-term 12-30 ATS when priced as a road favorite of less than a touchdown, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Packers are a long-term 108-79 when playing at home on six days or less rest, outscoring the opposition by 8.2 points on average and a terrific 11-2 ATS in an underdog role over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Temple plus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There's not much separating these two teams as they kick off AAC play on Thursday night in Tulsa. The Temple football program hasn't provided much excitement at all in recent years and 2023 has been no different so far. A number of key Owls sat out last Saturday's blowout loss to Miami. While those players were certainly banged-up, the thinking from head coach Stan Drayton was probably to sit them in what set up as a likely defeat and have them ready for this conference play opener on Thursday. Last year, Tulsa got by Temple by a 27-16 score. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane were led by QB Davis Brin, RB Deneric Prince and WR J.C. Santana in that game. None of those players are back this year. Temple needs sharper play from QB E.J. Warner - that's right, Kurt's son - and I think it will get that against a manageable defensive opponent here. The Tulsa offense was built around dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton but he's been hampered by an ankle injury since Week 1. Even if he can play on Thursday, he likely won't be 100% healthy. The Owls will hope to have standout LB Yvandy Rigby back on the field after he missed last week's game. He had 11 tackles and a sack in last year's matchup with Tulsa. Layton Jordan remains in the fold as well - he was outstanding, chipping in with two sacks and an interception against the Golden Hurricane last year. Take Temple (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Everyone is ready to write off the Bengals following an ugly 0-2 start and now with QB Joe Burrow likely to miss Monday's showdown with the Rams. I actually think this is an excellent opportunity for Cincinnati to silence its critics and get its season turned around against a very beatable opponent. The Rams have been cooked by opposing ground attacks through the first two games this season, allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush. The Bengals are well-positioned to attack Los Angeles on the ground with RB Joe Mixon, especially if Burrow can't suit up. Backup QB Jake Browning has flashed at times in the preseason, particularly with his mobility. The Rams have Aaron Donald on defense much not much else. While WR Puka Nacua has stole the show through two games, I don't think we're seeing much more than the ghost of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Expect the Bengals to make a statement. Take Cincinnati (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is an absolute walk for the Cowboys as they look to build off of consecutive blowout wins over the Giants and Jets with another lopsided victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. Dallas did lose standout CB Trevon Diggs to a season-ending ACL earlier this week but that's of little consequence in this particular matchup. The Cowboys figure to do whatever they want offensively in this game against a depleted Cardinals defense that folded the tent in the second half against the Giants lukewarm offense last Sunday. Meanwhile, even without Diggs, the Dallas defense figures to make life miserable for the Arizona offense here. The Cowboys have absolutely stymied opposing ground attacks in the early going this season and that should leave Cards QB Joshua Dobbs on an island for much of the afternoon on Sunday. This a 'name your score' type of game for Dallas and the end result shouldn't be pretty for Arizona. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs 'got right' with a win on the road against Jacksonville last week. Here, most are expecting them to run away and hide against the lowly Bears but I think we're in for a more competitive affair than anticipated. Chicago has so many issues right now, not only on the field but when it comes to the coaching staff as well. QB Justin Fields called out his coaches earlier this week and then an FBI raid led to the resignation of defensive coordinator Alan Williams. With all of that being said, I think getting on the field will be a welcome distraction on Sunday afternoon. I actually have high hopes for Bears QB Justin Fields in this matchup. The Chiefs defense got a big boost from the return of DT Chris Jones last week. That same emotional spark won't be there this week. Jones still figures to disrupt the Bears offensive gameplan but I do think that Fields has the mobility to be a little more elusive than Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was last Sunday. Offensively, I still think the Chiefs are a bit in disarray. TE Travis Kelce returned last week and he figures to play a prominent role in the offense this week. The Bears know what's coming, however, and I do think they can do enough to slow the Kansas City attack on Sunday. Note that Chicago has held AFC West opponents to just 17 points on average in their last 33 matchups, outscored by an average margin of only 0.2 points along the way. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Long a house of horrors for opposing teams, the Seahawks are in a bit of a nightmare spot of their own on Sunday, primed for a letdown off last week's 'upset' victory in Detroit. Carolina is off to an unsurprising 0-2 start and now travels on a short week after dropping a three-point decision at home against the Saints on Monday. Bryce Young won't play this week. That means the offense is left in the capable (?) hands of veteran QB Andy Dalton. I like the matchup for the Panthers offense here as they take on a depleted Seahawks defense that will be without a number of key contributors in the secondary. Seattle's defense isn't all that good at the best of times so without multiple key pieces it figures to be in tough. I actually feel Panthers RB Miles Sanders could be the x-factor here against a Seahawks defense that has proven vulnerable through the first two games of the season. Seattle is dealing with a cluster of injuries to its offensive line while QB Geno Smith has looked very much like a guy that is shouldering the weight of the offense thanks to an ineffective backfield. With DK Metcalf and Will Dissly banged-up there's just not a whole lot to get excited about with this Seahawks offense. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills had little trouble shaking off a season-opening loss to the Jets, rebounding to crush the Raiders at home as a big favorite last Sunday. With that being said, I do expect them to be in for a fight in Washington this week. The Commanders are off to a surprising 2-0 start (to some). A win was certainly expected in their opener against the lowly Cardinals while last week's 'upset' victory in Denver was of the mild variety to be sure. Regardless, I do feel Washington matches up reasonably well with Buffalo this week and we're being offered a generous helping of points. The Commanders always seem to boast a fierce pass rush and this year has been no different. While few have paid much attention to their first two contests, they've racked up a whopping 10 sacks while applying heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Russell Wilson. They'll be facing a much tougher opposing quarterback here, but also one that tends to get turnover-happy when under duress (as we saw in Week 1 against the Jets). Buffalo continues to employ a three-man rotation in the backfield and I think that has more to do with no one stepping up and taking the RB1 job than anything else. Washington hasn't given opposing running backs much room to run, allowing only 3.4 yards per rush so far this season. On the flip side, I think this Bills defense is beatable. I was fairly high on the Buffalo defense out of the gates this season, especially with the trio of Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde finally all healthy at the same time in the secondary. In watching their first two games, however, I've seen a defense that looks vulnerable, particularly in the back-end. Neither the Jets or Raiders had the personnel to really stretch the field (due to Aaron Rodgers' injury and Jimmy Garoppolo's ineptness) but both teams still came up with some splash plays through the air (the Raiders game-opening touchdown drive last Sunday comes to mind). Here, Commanders QB Sam Howell should be able to test Buffalo's pass defense, working behind an offensive line that is one of the more underrated in the entire league. Washington has speed to burn at the receiver position with Terry McLaurin leading the way. TE Logan Thomas is questionable to play this week but his possible absence would only mean more touches for the likes of McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Take Washington (10*).

AFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a smash spot for the Patriots defense as they line up against a Jets offense that is completely out of sorts after losing QB Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Compounding matters is the fact that New York is also without LT Duane Brown, meaning it's all systems go for the New England pass rush on Sunday. Bill Bellichick has owned Jets QB Zach Wilson and given the fact that New England enters this game sporting an 0-2 record, I don't expect the Pats to hold anything back gameplan-wise on Sunday. I've actually come away encouraged by the Pats offensive play-calling through two games under coordinator Bill O'Brien. There's not a lot New England can do schematically to circumvent an outstanding Jets secondary in this matchup, but I do think the Pats can move the football well enough to let their defense take care of the rest on Sunday. The Jets are obviously in desperate need of a spark offensively but they're unlikely to get it until Zach Wilson is sent to the bench, perhaps in favor of another veteran quarterback. Dalvin Cook certainly hasn't been the answer out of the backfield. All he's doing is eating into the workload of RB Breece Hall. Try as they might, I don't expect the Jets to break through offensively on Sunday. Take New England (10*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Missouri at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

While both of these teams enter this matchup sporting identical 3-0 records, I think Memphis is the real deal while the jury is still out on Missouri. One thing I do know is the Tigers would likely prefer to be playing at their home stadium rather than at the cavernous Dome at America's Center in St. Louis (the former home of the Rams) after a raucous upset win over Kansas State in front of 62,000 Mizzou faithful last Saturday. The Tigers have the built-in advantage of having had a couple extra days of preparation after playing a week ago Thursday against Navy. The fact that Memphis 'only' won that game by four points certainly plays into our favor here as I think the Tigers are being overlooked by most. In watching that victory over Navy, it was clear that Memphis was the better team. It simply got caught flat-footed at times against the Midshipmen's triple-option. Missouri is hoping to have QB Brady Cook under center after he suffered a knee injury in last week's win. Regardless, I do expect the Mizzou Tigers to lean heavily on their ground attack here. In fact, I think both teams have a vested interest in churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten proceedings on Saturday. Remember, Mizzou is just one game removed from a narrow 23-19 home win over Middle Tennessee State. That game certainly could have gone either way. Were it not for the Tigers falling on a fumble in their own end zone over halfway through the fourth quarter, they just as easily could have lost that contest by the narrowest of margins. That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that is just 1-2 on the season and got drilled by 49 points by Alabama in Week 1. Memphis likely welcomed the test at the hands of Navy last week after cruising to wins by 42 and 34 points in its first two games this season. Take Memphis (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Colorado was riding a wave last week and that surge carried it to a tougher-than-expected overtime win over Colorado State. I don't think the wheels are about to come off for Prime's Buffaloes but I do think the schedule is going to play a factor in the short-term with this trip to Autzen Stadium followed by next week's showdown with USC in Boulder. The Ducks already have an 80+ point performance on their resume this season, albeit against an FCS opponent in Portland State. They easily could have broken 70 points last Saturday were it not for easing off the gas up huge in the second half against Hawaii. Oregon got whatever it wanted in that game and I'm not convinced this Saturday's affair will be all that different. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders has been able to pick apart opposing defenses with pinpoint accuracy through three games. He hasn't shown the ability to pick up yardage with his legs and has already absorbed a whopping 15 sacks. I would anticipate the Ducks attacking him from all angles on Saturday. While Oregon is known for its offensive prowess, it has it's share of ballers on the defensive side as well. Speaking of that Ducks offense, it is quite simply one of the most difficult attacks to defend in all of college football. QB Bo Nix looks completely in control of the offense in his second year at the helm. Oregon's schedule is going to get a lot tougher with road tests at Washington and Utah in the not so far-off distance. For now, we can expect another party in Eugene on Saturday afternoon. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Boston College at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a revenge spot for Louisville after it was stunned 34-33 as nearly a two-touchdown road favorite in this matchup last season. The Cardinals looked rather punchless in last week's 21-14 win at Indiana. Keep in mind, they had scored a whopping 95 points in two games prior to that. I look for them to get back on track here as they catch the Eagles in a letdown spot after giving Florida State all they could handle last week. It's worth noting that while Boston College did end up scoring 29 points in that contest, it was held out of the end zone from 10 minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over one minute was left in the third quarter. There was a point late in the third quarter where Florida State was up by three touchdowns before it let down its guard. Here, I'm confident we'll see the undefeated Cardinals pour it on, noting that they also let off the gas and it nearly cost them last week as they carried a 21-0 lead into halftime before giving up two unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter (that was it for scoring in that one). Take Louisville (8*).

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Neither of these teams has set the world on fire in the early going this season. Boise State got off to a miserable start with a blowout loss at Washington before dropping its home opener against Central Florida. It did have a true 'get right' performance in last week's rout of FCS squad North Dakota. I'm not sure how much bettors know about the Broncos just yet but I still think this team has the potential to have a positive year. San Diego State is off to a 2-2 start. It held up reasonably well defensively but couldn't produce enough offense in last week's loss at Oregon State. Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Aztecs bounce back offensively against what I feel is a much better Boise State defense than most give it credit for (largely due to that awful performance against Washington in Week 1). I can't help but feel the book is out on Aztecs QB Jaylen Mayden. He stepped in and performed well last season but is off to a shaky start this year, especially as a passer (he did have a breakout rushing performance against FCS opponent Idaho State). The Aztecs don't have the same number of offensive weapons as the Broncos in my opinion. Boise State QB Taylen Green has been almost a mirror image to Mayden. I do like his upside as a passer and he also has a terrific backfield to lean on, even if George Holani can't go again here. Ashton Jeanty fumbled twice last week but did manage to score three touchdowns. He had a big performance against UCF two weeks ago, running for 115 yards while also adding 97 yards receiving. Again, it's the Broncos defense that I expect to fuel this performance on Friday. Boise State boasts a number of playmakers on that side of the football, led by star-in-the-making CB Rodney Robinson, and draws what I feel is a favorable matchup against an Aztecs offense that might be that bad. Take Boise State (8*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Monday.

The Saints may not be an elite NFC team but I do think they'll be in the playoff conversation all season. Here, they'll look to keep pace with the division-leading Buccaneers and Falcons, who both secured their second straight wins to open the season yesterday afternoon. I think New Orleans is in excellent position to move to 2-0 as well with this favorable Monday night draw in Carolina. The Saints only eked out a one-point victory over Tennessee in what was a defensive slugfest last Sunday. There were lots of positives to take away from that low-scoring affair, however. QB Derek Carr looked very comfortable in the Saints pocket - this has the potential to be a terrific fit for the 32-year old quarterback. He won't be asked to do too much but does have the tools to distribute the football to a sneaky-good group of receivers and tight ends led by super sophomore Chris Olave. This is a potential blow-up spot for RB Jamaal Williams as well as he once again handles the lead back role. The Panthers were not good against the run in last Sunday's lopsided loss in Atlanta. Offensively, the Panthers have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams. While it's important not to overreact to Week 1 results, Carolina's 'O' looked lukewarm at best, relying heavily on Bryce Young's athleticism at quarterback to elevate a rag-tag cast of weapons (I use the term 'weapons' lightly in this case). The Saints defense put the clamps on the Titans offense last week and this is a similarly favorable matchup. Note that while the Panthers have won consecutive meetings in this series, their offensive ceiling remains low, producing 26 points or fewer in seven straight matchups with the Saints. In a similar vein, New Orleans has produced 18 points or less in each of the last four meetings but again, it brought in veteran QB Carr to give the offense a lift and I think we'll see it produce on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants laid an egg at home against Dallas last Sunday night. That wasn't all that unexpected as the Cowboys have quite simply owned the G-Men in recent years. Here, New York draws a favorable bounce-back matchup in Arizona. The Cardinals kept things closer than expected on the road against Washington last Sunday, in what turned out to be an incredibly sloppy affair. Their offense looked lukewarm with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. I can't imagine Dobbs is long for the job but Arizona's options are limited with an inexperienced rookie in Clayton Tune behind him. This is a matchup where the Giants defensive front should feast against a leaky Cardinals offensive line. On the flip side, Arizona was ripped for just shy of 100 yards by Commanders running backs last Sunday and should get similarly exposed by Saquon Barkley here. I think it's important not to overreact to the Giants Week 1 result as I do still believe this is an upgraded offensive team in their second season the guidance of head coach Brian Daboll. Offseason acquisition Darren Waller wasn't much of a factor against the Cowboys but should rebound along with Giants QB Daniel Jones in this far more forgiving matchup on Sunday. Here, we'll note that New York is a long-term 13-3 ATS when coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, as is the case here. Take New York (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams turned in one of the most impressive performances in Week 1 as they routed the division rival Seahawks, on the road no less. I expect them to suffer considerable regression here in Week 2, however, as they host the 49ers. Los Angeles is between a rock and a hard place defensively in this matchup. Last week, the Rams were able to play a very conservative style against the Seahawks, keeping everything in front of them and frustrating QB Geno Smith and his receiving corps all afternoon long. The 49ers are capable of taking full advantage of that type of gameplan though with RB Christian McCaffrey fresh off an efficient performance against the Steelers last week. It seemed as though the jury was still out on QB Brock Purdy over the course of the offseason but he looked incredible in a game managing role last Sunday and should be able to repeat that performance here. The Rams offense is still missing WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matt Stafford, while impressive in last week's win, is likely to be under duress for much of the afternoon on Sunday. The Steelers offense was arguably better positioned to move the football on this San Francisco defense last Sunday and couldn't get anything going. Pittsburgh managed only 62 rushing yards against the Niners defensive front and you could make the case that Los Angeles boasts a weaker backfield tandem in Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, even though the latter did impress against a swinging gate Seahawks defense last Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Michigan State at 5 pm et on Saturday.

This will be a 'revenge game' for Michigan State after it dropped a 39-28 decision in Seattle last September. Instead of earning an ounce of revenge, however, I expect things to go even worse for the Spartans this time around. Washington is loaded on both sides of the football. The Huskies have already padded their stats with lopsided home wins over Boise State and Tulsa. This is arguably their first real test of the campaign although I use the term 'test' loosely. I think Washington will relish the opportunity to go to East Lansing and prove its worth here. Relatively green in the secondary, the Spartans will be hard-pressed to contain the Huskies dynamic WR duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The fact that do-it-all WR Ja'Lynn Polk is only the Huskies third best option is staggering. He's already racked up 182 receiving yards to go along with a score through the air and another on the ground. Michael Penix still isn't a household name in the college streets but it should be. Despite the lopsided nature of the first two games, Washington has kept its foot on the gas for four quarters in both contests and Penix has racked up 859 passing yards and a ridiculous eight touchdowns. And we haven't even talked about the Huskies defense yet. They arguably have NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. All indications are that elite pass-rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui sat out last Saturday's game as a precaution only and should be back on the field for this one. Even if he isn't able to go, the Huskies have tremendous depth. I'm confident we'll see Washington lock down what I feel is a lukewarm Michigan State offense on saturday and create plenty of 'chaos' plays. Michigan State is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS but who has it played? Central Michigan and FCS squad Richmond. The Spartans have played well but certainly not at the same level as the Huskies. Keep in mind, in their opener they didn't even reach the end zone until less than a minute was left in the first half against CMU. They do have some nice pieces in place on offense but will take some time to grow. QB Noah Kim is the starter for now but I think it's only a matter of time before highly-touted Katin Houser takes over. The backfield job likely belongs to UConn transfer Nathan Carter with Jalen Berger dealing with an injury and questionable to play. At wide receiver Michigan State has lost a ton of talent from last year's team. Remember, WR Keon Coleman went off for nine catches, 116 yards and two touchdowns in last year's matchup against Washington. He's now tearing it up for Florida State. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday.

Don't be fooled by the lopsided final score - Maryland got a scare from Charlotte last Saturday. The Terrapins actually didn't score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter in that contest. The good news is, their offense got rolling from there, ultimately producing four touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch from the third to fourth quarter. They even sniffed out an ATS cover (as 24.5-point favorites) before Charlotte produced a touchdown drive in the final two minutes. Nevertheless, there were positives for Maryland to take away. After allowing a touchdown just three minutes into the first quarter it held the 49ers out of the end zone until that final score with under two minutes left in the game. The Terps have allowed just two offensive touchdowns through their first two games. There's plenty to clean up offensively although the offensive line, which was thought to be the biggest concern entering the season, turned in a reasonably clean performance against Charlotte. QB Taulia Tagovailoa remains one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion although he tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions last week. I'm willing to give the Terps a mulligan given it was easy to overlook a Charlotte squad they routed last season. Virginia is 0-2 and essentially in a rebuilding year. The Cavaliers did predictably play with a lot of juice last Saturday at home against a sneaky-good James Madison squad. QB Anthony Colandrea wasn't even in the conversation for the starting job earlier in the Spring/Summer but he has taken over the reins. I just wonder whether he's long for the job, undersized and playing behind a leaky offensive line with few offensive weapons around him (he was sacked four times and also threw an interception against JMU). There was a stretch where Virginia scored three touchdowns in six minutes from the second to third quarter on Saturday but it only reached the end zone one more time from there and was completely stymied when the game was hanging in the balance on three fourth quarter drives. Now the Cavaliers take a step up in class against Maryland. I'm simply not convinced Virginia has the personnel in place to hang with the Terps for four quarters. I'm confident we'll see the Terps defense in particular feast on Friday night. Take Maryland (8*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Navy plus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Navy got off to an ugly start to the campaign in Week 0 as it was predictably routed by Notre Dame in Dublin. The Midshipmen got an early season bye after that and rebounded with a clean 24-0 victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. Here, they'll be bent on revenge after dropping blowout decisions against Memphis in each of the last two seasons. I believe Navy is better positioned to keep this matchup competitive even if its chances of staging the outright upset are slim. The Midshipmen have a bit of a different approach under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut. Gone are the days of this being strictly a triple-option attack. Even in last week's rout of Wagner, the Middies threw the football 18 times, and found moderate success doing so. QB Tai Lavatai is the right guy in place to run the offense. There's a good mix of talent and experience at the other skill positions as well. If there's a weakness on the Memphis defense it's in the middle and that's an area where I believe Navy can take advantage with a rather unpredictable offensive gameplan on Thursday. Back to Memphis in a moment but it's worth noting the Navy defense found its footing last Saturday after getting smashed in the mouth against Notre Dame. This is a better defense than most are probably going to give it credit for, solid from the secondary in with enough reliable pieces in place to limit the Tigers aerial attack and put pressure on QB Seth Henigan. Guys like Jacob Busic and Mbiti Williams are anything but household names but they're capable of wreaking havoc in this particular matchup. Memphis' offense has ripped through a pair of outmatched opponents to open the season. I do think there are still growing pains ahead for this offense with question marks on the offensive line and an unproven receiving corps. The experience of Henigan and the tremendous running back depth can help make up for that but I feel this one is more about the Tigers trying to effectively shorten this game and get to 3-0 unscathed. I also think the relatively low posted total speaks volumes here. Last year Memphis closed as a 4.5-point favorite against Navy and won in a walk by 24 points. Keep in mind, the Midshipmen turned the football over three times in that game and completed only 3-of-11 passes. I'm confident Navy can close the gap in this rematch, noting that Memphis is a long-term 10-24 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory, outscoring opponents by just 2.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Navy is a long-term 69-30 ATS as a road underdog, outscored by 7.1 points on average along the way. Take Navy (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors certainly seem high on the Broncos as they look to turn the page following a dreadful 2022 campaign. Nathaniel Hackett took the fall and now it's Sean Payton's turn to try his hand at turning around Denver's fortunes. While the Broncos can't be much worse than they were a year ago, I don't see this as the Week 1 slam dunk that most do. This will be a revenge game of sorts for Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo after his 49ers dropped an ugly 11-10 decision in a Sunday night game here in Denver early last season. I'm actually higher on Jimmy G. than some as he gets a fresh start following an up and down career with the Niners. The Raiders certainly aren't without weapons on offense with RB Josh Jacobs back in the fold and WR Davante Adams getting up there in age but still able to ball with the best of them. I think Las Vegas has sneaky-good depth at the wide receiver position with Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers in the mix as well. While the Broncos have a few studs on defense, they also have some weaknesses and not a great deal of depth. It's a similar story for the Raiders defense. They upgraded their pass rush by drafting Tyree Wilson in the first round to pair with the electric Maxx Crosby. Their secondary is vulnerable but can Broncos QB Russell Wilson take advantage? Injuries throughout training camp and the preseason mean Wilson won't have his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. While Sean Payton can scheme with the best of them and would certainly appear to have a considerable edge against Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, I believe the Broncos are simply laying too many points in this Week 1 divisional matchup. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Auburn minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams exploded offensively in blowout victories last Saturday. I believe Auburn is better positioned to keep it rolling this week, however. The Tigers rested a number of players in their opener against UMass (some were nursing minor injuries). While they did allow the Minutemen to move the football a little easier than you would have expected at times, they ultimately stiffened up when it mattered and went a stretch from seven minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over six minutes into the fourth quarter without allowing a single score. Auburn is loaded in the secondary where it boasts NFL-caliber talent led by Nehemiah Pritchett, who sat out last week's game but should return here. Offensively, the Tigers ran wild and ripped off a ton of big plays. That's not to say there's not room for improvement, however, as the quarterback duo of Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford completed just 12-of-23 passes. I expect a much sharper performance as the offense works out the kinks under offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery. Cal managed only two sacks against North Texas last week and will be up against an Auburn offensive line that has a number of new parts via the transfer portal but quickly came together, turning in a clean performance against UMass. The Bears defense is led by one of the better linebackers in the country in Jackson Sirmon but I suspect he'll be doing a lot of chasing on Saturday. Cal hopes to have dual-threat QB Sam Jackson (he transferred in from TCU) after he was forced to leave last week's game due to injury. While Ben Finley performed admirably in relief, there's no question this new-look offense is built around Jackson's mobility. RB Jaydn Ott turned in a monster performance against North Texas but it remains to be seen whether he can follow it up with a similar performance here. He had a couple of breakout games last year but didn't show a great deal of consistency. What he has been doing is giving Auburn bulletin board material in media availability this week; "It would be very encouraging when we do get this win. but I feel like our focus is going to be not letting it get to our head and getting too big-headed after we do get the dub." I believe Auburn is a Top-25 team and will boost its resume on Saturday night in Berkeley. Take Auburn (8*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Maryland certainly did itself a favor with its early season schedule this year, opening with three straight home games against Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. It already checked the first box with a 38-6 rout of Towson last week and I'm anticipating a similar result as it hosts Charlotte on Saturday. The Terrapins offense did have some question marks entering the campaign, namely on the offensive line and at wide receiver where it lost some key pieces to the NFL. With that said, it got off to a tremendous start thanks to a terrific performance from underrated QB Taulia Tagovailoa last week and I'm confident we'll see it show continued progression against a Charlotte defense that was absolutely awful last year and didn't do a whole lot to improve things heading into this season. The 49ers weren't really tested in their opener against South Carolina State. Note that they didn't reach the end zone until over five minutes into the second quarter and then went a stretch from four minutes remaining in the second quarter until over midway through the fourth quarter without scoring a touchdown. They'll look to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and the new clock rules may help them in that regard. With that said, I don't think they can keep this one competitive without QB Jalon Jones being asked to do a whole lot more than he was last week. That likely only gets them into trouble against a Maryland defense that is loaded with potential breakout stars and picked up a game-changer in CB Ja'Quan Sheppard from Cincinnati. Take Maryland (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Marshall minus the points over East Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams experienced different results from a pointspread perspective last week with Marshall barely eking out a 21-17 win over FCS squad Albany, at home no less, while East Carolina stayed inside the number in a 30-3 loss to Michigan at the Big House. It certainly took longer than expected to get going, but the Thundering Herd eventually scored a touchdown just over midway through the third quarter in last week's eventual narrow victory. It wasn't all doom-and-gloom though as Marshall ended up scoring three touchdowns over a 10-minute stretch in that contest. QB Cam Fancher looked pretty good to me, completing 28-of-35 passes for 268 yards while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. It was a tremendous comeback game for RB Rasheen Ali as he ran for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. I expect that to be a sign of things to come for this Thundering Herd offense. This is a mouth-watering matchup for Marshall offensively as it catches East Carolina with a relatively inexperienced defense early in the season, before it is able to really mesh. While the Pirates did hold Michigan to 'only' 30 points in last week's loss, that was really a product of the Wolverines taking their foot off the gas after jumping ahead with three touchdowns over a 16-minute stretch in the first half. Michigan put up all 30 of its points in the game's first 36 minutes before calling off the dogs. On the flip side, the East Carolina offense is going to be a work-in-progress as it figures out life after long-time starting QB Holton Ahlers. The Pirates didn't manage a single score against the Wolverines until a field goal with five seconds remaining in the contest. Neither QB they used was able to take hold of the job. I also see it as a negative that QB Mason Garcia led the team in rushing with just 36 yards. Yes, this will be a far less challenging defensive opponent in Marshall but I'm not convinced we'll see the Pirates offense explode. Note that Marshall didn't allow a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter and no score of any kind in the game's final 18 minutes plus against Albany, which possesses a good offense by FCS standards based on early returns this year. The Thundering Herd lost a lot of talent from last year's elite defense but there are just enough key pieces back in place at all three levels, particularly in the secondary, to come together in short order. Take Marshall (10*).

My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this Week 2 showdown sporting 1-0 records with Illinois pulling out a last second 30-28 win over Toledo and Kansas crushing Missouri State 48-17. We've seen this line shift slightly toward Illinois in the early part of the week. I can't help but think bettors are a little too high on Bret Bielema's Illini right now and probably not quite high enough on the Jayhawks. There is uncertainty around Kansas' quarterback situation. Jason Bean started last week's game but there's a chance Jalon Daniels will get the start on Friday. It's a nice situation to be in having two quarterbacks comfortable and capable of running the offense as intended. Speaking of that offense, the Jayhawks are loaded with talent and experience at all of the skill positions. I don't believe Kansas' receiving corps or backfield get nearly the attention they deserve - it's not all about the quarterbacks. While it was 'only' against an FCS opponent in Missouri State, there was a stretch where the Jayhawks scored three touchdowns in a six-minute span last Saturday. It took a little while for the offense to get rolling but once it did, it looked unstoppable - just as it did much of last season. Defense is where there remain question marks but I believe Kansas has just enough standout players at all three levels to find success and ultimately take a step forward this season. This is a manageable Week 2 matchup against an Illinois offense that has a number of big shoes to fill, even if the cupboard is far from empty. Illini QB Luke Altmyer showed what he's capable of in last week's come-from-behind win over Toledo, moving the chains with both his arm and his legs. I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as that of Bean or Daniels for the Jayhawks, however. Of course, Altmyer likely won't be asked to do too much as we all know Bret Bielema-coached teams are run-first. That's an area where Kansas' defense really struggled last year but again, I do think it can take a leap forward this season with the transfer portal helping out, not to mention a number of key contributors gaining a year of experience. The Kansas defense gets stronger at the back-end, notably loaded in the secondary and that's an area of the field where I expect Illinois to run into some trouble, when it tries to stretch the defense. Corners Cobee Bryant and Kwinton Lassiter each picked off a pass in last week's victory. As much as the Illini would like to avoid a track meet, I do think they're going to be forced to play an uncomfortable game of 'catch-up' on Friday night, something they're simply not built for. Take Kansas (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Clemson at 8 pm et on Monday.

There's a lot of hype around Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers entering the 2023 campaign - of course, what else is new. After a brief lull (by Clemson standards anyway) they're expected back in the National Title picture led by a loaded defense that has NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. I will say that a number of the players they're counting on to lead that defense will need to make a leap forward after perhaps not quite living up to potential thus far. The same goes for the offense. Duke will field arguably its best team in years - on both sides of the football. There's returning talent and experience everywhere and I believe the potential is there for the Blue Devils to build off of last year's strong finish that included a rout of UCF in the Military Bowl. Most are high on Duke QB Riley Leonard and while he's coming off a big 2022 campaign that saw him lead the Blue Devils in passing and rushing, I think there's still a lot of room for him to grow, especially as a passer, in 2023. The common line of thinking here is that Duke simply doesn't have the same level of talent across the board to match up with Clemson and that Dabo Swinney will coach circles around Mike Elko. The Tigers have certainly owned this series, taking five straight meetings going all the way back to 2005, outscoring the Blue Devils by 24 points or more in all five of those contests. It's been five years since their last matchup though and I'm confident Duke has narrowed the gap considerably. Take Duke (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Old Dominion at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Opening night in Blacksburg is always special - you could argue any football night in Blacksburg is special - but this year's home opener takes on added importance after the Hokies were upset by Old Dominion in Week 1 last season. The Monarchs stole that game by a 20-17 score and I say 'stole' because their offense didn't even reach the end zone until the final minute of the fourth quarter. While Old Dominion won't roll over in this rematch, it is certainly going to be in tough to open the campaign after being ravaged by the transfer portal. Gone are two of the Monarchs key pieces from last year's upset win - QB Hayden Wolff and WR Ali Jennings (the Richmond native bolted to Virginia Tech). Defensively, Old Dominion retains the services of tackling-machine LB Jason Henderson but little else, particularly up front. Virginia Tech will once again pin its hopes on QB Grant Wells. It's essentially put up or shut up time for the veteran signal-caller as the Hokies have surrounded him with a ton of talent at the wide receiver position. Wells has always had the arm but has a tendency to turn the football over. The good news here is I expect Virginia Tech to jump ahead early and take the air out of the football the rest of the way. ODU was one of the worst time of possession teams in the entire country last year and won't get any better with so many key pieces gone. Take Virginia Tech (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

As impressive as the Eagles have been from wire-to-wire this season I'm not sure the casual NFL viewer/follower realizes just how good this team is from top-to-bottom. There's been a lot of talk about how the Eagles have got off easy this season, facing a lighter schedule than most, even if the truth is they've gone against a very comparable slate of opponents to that of the Chiefs, for example. With QB Jalen Hurts healthy, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable on offense and the same goes for the defense from a health perspective. When at full strength, as is the case right now, there's no more talented defense in the NFL even going position-by-position. Yes, the Chiefs legacy continues to grow with the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce the true faces of the franchise through it all. I'm concerned about just how banged-up they are, even with the bye week, heading into this contest. On so many occasions, Kansas City has been forced to rely upon Patrick Mahomes heroics (and the exploits of his supporting cast). Yes, the defense has come up big at times as well, most notably late in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, but I don't put that unit on nearly the same plane as that of the Eagles. Offensively, the Eagles have an incredibly versatile attack that can beat you in a number of different ways. The emergence of second-year WR DeVonta Smith has made them that much more explosive, and I think the production of TE Dallas Goedert gets overshadowed as well. The same goes for RB Miles Sanders, who is often afforded gaping holes to run through thanks to an all-world offensive line. I could go on, but the fact is, the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season long, and as difficult as it is to fade Reid, Mahomes and company, I'm willing to do it at what I consider to be a short number here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Bengals have enjoyed tremendous success over the course of the last two seasons and will look to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for the second straight year on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect them to fall short. The Chiefs got a scare last Saturday when Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a devastating ankle injury early in the game against the Jaguars. Mahomes would ultimately return and Kansas City gutted out a tough 27-20 win over a game Jacksonville squad. I actually think the Chiefs are better for it after going through their share of adversity in that game. To say that this Kansas City squad is seasoned for this type of environment would be an understatement. The core of this team has seen it all and been here before (multiple times), most notably the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. I'm confident that all three will play a significant role in booking a ticket back to the Super Bowl on Sunday. Last week, Cincinnati was able to overcome its significant absences on its offensive line. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate, at least not when a big play is needed late. The Chiefs defense certainly doesn't get enough credit in the shadow of Mahomes and the team's explosive offense. While it will undoubtedly have its hands full with an elite Bengals offense here, I believe this is a group that expects to come up with that big play late, just as we saw last Saturday when it secured a critical interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. Even on a bad ankle, Mahomes is capable of contributing his share of big plays on the offensive side of the football. Unlike last week when the Bengals benefited from facing a mistake-prone Bills offense, this time around they'll likely need to make their own breaks as Kansas City takes care of the football (only two turnovers in its last four games - both in Week 17 against Denver). I simply feel the Chiefs are the superior team and the fact that we're being asked to lay less than a field goal with them at home, in this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game (which they lost) is a bargain. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday.

Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'.

San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it.

To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here.

While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion).

QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here.

The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests.

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Giants (and the 'over') in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Minnesota. While a lot of bettors are confident going back to the well with the G-Men in an underdog role again here, I think they're looking for something that's quite simply not there.

The Eagles are an elite team this season, in all facets. The bye week certainly helped their cause with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders among those looking to get back to 100% health, or as close to it as possible.

Last week's matchup with the Vikings was a dream scenario for the Giants as Minnesota featured a listless defense that couldn't pressure the quarterback, couldn't stop the run and couldn't stop the pass. The Giants were effectively able to do whatever they wanted offensively - everything worked. I expect a much different story to unfold here.

The one time the Eagles saw Giants RB Saquon Barkley this season, they held him to just 48 yards.

Last week's big performance through the air from New York QB Daniel Jones was largely matchup-related. He's going to find the going a lot tougher against the Eagles shutdown secondary led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

On the flip side, the Giants figure to have an extremely difficult time slowing the Eagles offense, particularly on the ground. Sanders absolutely torched the Giants in their regular season matchup in New York, finding the end zone twice on 155 yards.

The presence of Giants CB Adoree' Jackson (he missed the two regular season meetings) certainly helps their cause, but the emergence of Eagles WR Devonta Smith to compliment A.J. Brown figures to present New York with a 'pick-your-poison' situation here.

As is often the case, look for the superior, not to mention rested team to roll in this Divisional Round matchup. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points first half over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I see this as a 'shock to the system' spot for the Cowboys after closing out the regular season with games against Josh Dobbs and the Titans and Sam Howell and the Commanders. Neither of those quarterbacks instilled much fear in the Cowboys defense but this is a much different situation on Monday as they go against Tom Brady and an 'as healthy as its been all season' supporting cast of weapons. To be honest, I'm not all that confident in putting this game into the hands of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Raheem Morris and their decision-making in the second half. Instead, we'll back the Bucs with a one-point cushion in the game's first 30 minutes, noting that Tampa Bay has led 21-16 and 12-3 in the two previous meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season and was also tied or leading in three of its final four regular season contests. Take Tampa Bay first half (8*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I'm far more interested in backing the Chargers minus the short number in the first half rather than the full game in this one as head coach Brandon Staley's crunch-time coaching decisions have rightfully been called to question ever since he took over the gig. Here, I do think the Bolts have enough early advantages to take a lead into the locker room at halftime.

Note that Los Angeles is 10-1 against the first half line when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Jaguars boat-raced the Chargers at SoFi Stadium earlier this season. Better still, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch. In that situation, they've outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.8 points in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Jags are a woeful 0-7 ATS against the first half line when playing at home after a division game over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.0 points on average in that spot.

I like the way this matchup sets up on paper for the Chargers as the Jags haven't been particularly stout against the pass this season and have struggled in particular defending opposing running backs that can catch the football. Of course the Bolts have one of the best in that department in Austin Ekeler, who enters the playoffs on a red hot tear. The same goes for QB Justin Herbert, who had a fantastic final two regular season games, tossing four touchdown passes.

It's a different story for Jags sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. He struggled down the stretch, even in last Saturday's must-win game against the Titans, which the Jags did manage to pull out by the skin of their teeth. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The coaching change seemed to provide the Broncos with a spark last week as they fell just short in a near-upset in Kansas City. Here, I look for them to snap their two-game skid, while also wrecking Los Angeles' four-game winning streak in the process. This is a game Denver has almost certainly had circled on its calendar since dropping a tough 19-16 decision in a Thursday night game in Los Angeles back in mid-October. While it remains to be seen how much or if Chargers starters will play in this game, the Broncos do have most of their offensive weapons at their disposal. Of course, I use that term 'weapons' somewhat lightly given how they've performed with QB Russell Wilson running the show this season. Nevertheless, I like this spot fading the Chargers after they clinched a playoff berth last week. Take Denver (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I simply feel the Raiders are a dangerous team with nothing to lose here in Week 18 of the regular season. We certainly saw plenty of fight from Las Vegas last Sunday as it gave San Francisco all it could handle but ultimately lost by a field goal for the second straight week. QB Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders offense some life and I think we'll see some carry-over effect from last week's performance here. The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS on the season, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders check in an impressive 5-2 ATS here at Allegiant Stadium. While Kansas City has won four straight games, three of those contests could have gone either way. Who knows what the future holds for the Raiders franchise on many fronts, but here I look for them to give the division-rival Chiefs all they can handle in the regular season finale for both teams. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on USC minus the points over Tulane at 1 pm et on Monday.

We successfully faded USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game as it got its doors blown off in the second half against Utah. In fact, the Trojans only two losses this season have come by way of the Utes. Here, we'll back the Trojans and fade Tulane as it enters this New Year's Bowl game off three consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I simply feel that Lincoln Riley's USC squad poses similar problems that the Green Wave faced against Central Florida and its high-powered offense back in mid-November - a game Tulane lost by a touchdown at home (it did get its revenge in the AAC Championship Game). Noting that USC is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 lined games off a straight-up defeat, we'll confidently back it here. Take USC (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*).