My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I don't like the prospect of the Steelers laying points as they travel across the country following last Sunday night's hard-fought loss against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh has now dropped consecutive games following a 3-0 start to the season. The Raiders are coming off a blowout defeat against the division rival Broncos in Denver last Sunday. They led that game 10-0 and appeared poised to go ahead 17-0 with a goal-to-go situation early in the second quarter but a Gardner Minshew interception resulted in a Patrick Surtain II pick-six and the rest was history. While Las Vegas doesn't have a lot going for it, I do think it will get up for this revenge spot after dropping a 23-18 decision at home against Pittsburgh last season. With the potential to climb back to the .500 mark with a win here, the Raiders undoubtedly still have plenty to play for. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens were very fortunate to come away with a win in Cincinnati last week. With the exception of its blowout win over Buffalo two weeks ago, all of Baltimore's games have gone down to the wire. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. The Commanders are going to be a popular underdog pick this week but that's fine. They've exceeded expectations to be sure but I don't think this spot is too big for them. Washington has cut QB Jayden Daniels loose and this is an offense that looks like it's playing with house money, so to speak. Defensively, the Commanders do have their warts but as I mentioned, Baltimore has had a difficult time putting teams away (look no further than its Week 2 loss at home against Las Vegas). We can anticipate a run-centric approach from the Ravens which effectively shortens proceedings and favors the underdog side catching a generous helping of points. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Few bettors want any piece of the Browns this week. Cleveland and namely QB Deshaun Watson looked disinterested in last Sunday's blowout loss in Washington. However, I do feel the value has swung Cleveland's way this week as it is catching nearly double-digits against a Philadelphia squad that hasn't exactly inspired a ton of confidence through four games this season (2-2 record). In today's NFL, where teams have a difficult time closing games out, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Browns. Cleveland did get some good news this week with top cornerback Denzel Ward expected to play. I'm still a believer in the Browns defense and you have to think that pride kicks in at some point, especially following that embarrassing performance in Washington last week. Finally, we'll note that the Eagles are just 17-24 ATS in their last 41 home games following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over Boise State at 11 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rainbow Warriors as they look to catch the Broncos in a flat spot off that 62-point explosion against Utah State last week. Of course, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is a next-level talent and on track for a possible Heisman Trophy this season. I like fading high-profile teams coming off much-discussed victories and that's the case with the Broncos here. The common line of thinking is that Jeanty will run wild once again but Hawaii has actually proven to have a pulse on defense this season. The Warriors dropped the cash last week at San Diego State but they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS defeats this season. Look for them to give the Broncos a fight on Saturday. Take Hawaii (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Colorado at 10:15 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this showdown off their bye week and both are looking to follow up on impressive victories as Kansas State rolled Oklahoma State at home while Colorado blitzed Central Florida on the road. We'll fade the Buffaloes as they try for their fourth straight ATS victory. These two teams couldn't be more different. Give us the side that knows how to run the football - the Wildcats have been downright dominant on the ground so far this season, gaining 200+ rushing yards in all five games. Colorado has been virtually mistake-free lately but it will be tested by a Kansas State team that has forced six turnovers in its last four games. Take Kansas State (10*).

My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Minnesota at 9 pm et on Saturday.

Moral victories aren't going to cut it for the Bruins. They've covered the spread in three straight games but enter this contest riding a four-game losing streak overall. The schedule has obviously played a role. I think this is a winnable game for UCLA as it catches Minnesota travelling in a letdown spot off a big upset win over USC last Saturday. The Golden Gophers had dropped two games in a row prior to that stunner. Here, they'll be trying for a third straight ATS win for the first time this season. The last time they tried to accomplish that feat they got rolled by Iowa at home on September 21st. We'll grab all the points we can get with the home underdog here. Take UCLA (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

It doesn't get much tougher than Vanderbilt trying to get back up and avoid the inevitable letdown following last week's massive upset win over then-number one ranked Alabama. The Commodores won't have the benefit of staying in Nashville as they head to Lexington to take on Kentucky. The Wildcats have gotten off to an uneven start this season but they did take Georgia down to the wire in a one-point defeat and also won outright on the road against Ole Miss just two weeks ago. Note that the Wildcats are rested following their bye week. We'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Saturday as I expect their defense to keep Diego Pavia and the Commodores in check all night long. Take Kentucky (8*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Ohio State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's not often we get the opportunity to catch points with Oregon at Autzen Stadium. That's the situation on Saturday as the Ducks host mighty (and undefeated) Ohio State. Oregon got off to a slow start this season but has settled in. I don't really see any reason for the Buckeyes to be laying points against an undefeated opponent in a hostile environment. While Ohio State has been blowing out the opposition on a weekly basis, it hasn't truly been tested. Arguably its toughest matchup to date came against Iowa last week but that game was played at a the Horseshoe in Columbus. Much different story here against Oregon. Look for the Ducks to make the Buckeyes uncomfortable all night and stage the minor upset. Take Oregon (8*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Ole Miss got the wake up call it needed two weeks ago as it was upset at home against Kentucky. The Rebels got off to a strong start in that contest and perhaps thought the down-trodden Wildcats would simply roll over. That wasn't the case. Last Saturday, South Carolina did Ole Miss a big favor by not offering much of a challenge at all. You see the Rebels were going to be at a disadvantage here with LSU coming off its bye week. However, Ole Miss took part in a glorified walk-through against the Gamecocks, rolling to a 27-3 victory. I'm certain Lane Kiffin has his team treating this second straight road tilt as a business trip. LSU checks in off four straight wins but is just 1-4 ATS on the campaign. Take Ole Miss (10*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While it may seem like a fairly inconsequential loss as the Seahawks are still 3-2 on the campaign, make no mistake, they needed last Sunday's game against the Giants. Most thought that would be a layup for Seattle but New York ultimately won by a 27-20 score. Now the Seahawks begin arguably the most difficult five-game stretch on their schedule and to make matters worse, they'll be welcoming a 49ers team that will be in a foul mood following Sunday's upset loss to the Cardinals on Thursday night. The Niners have dominated this matchup in recent years, on both sides of the football. While San Francisco has sputtered in the early going this season, I see this as a 'get right' matchup on a short week. Look for the Niners offense to bully an undermanned Seahawks defense that is missing arguably its two best players in Riq Woolen and Byron Murphy. San Francisco is dealing with injuries of its own on defense but I expect it to expose a bad Seattle offensive line and roll to a convincing victory on Thursday. Take San Francisco (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

It's already difficult enough to go undefeated through five games (the Vikings are the only team to do it so far this season). Here, the Chiefs will be trying to accomplish that feat but from a pointspread perspective are also laying a handful of points. I believe the spread will prove too high. Saints QB Derek Carr is certainly familiar with the Chiefs from his days with the division rival Raiders. Carr has been playing some of his best football so far this season, even if he has cooled off along with the Saints offense over the last couple of games. Off consecutive losses to the Eagles and Falcons by the narrowest of margins, I like New Orleans chances of bouncing back here but we'll grab the points as few teams have displayed the knack for pulling out victory from the jaws of defeat as the Chiefs have in recent years. Note that the Saints are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 road games following a road loss, as is the case here. The Chiefs are 26-30 ATS in their last 56 home games following three straight victories. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

No one will give the Cardinals much of a chance in this game, not after seeing them drop back-to-back games at home including a beatdown at the hands of the Commanders last Sunday. I think Arizona can give San Francisco a run here, noting that the 49ers are a long-term 56-71 ATS in their last 127 games following a win by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Arizona checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games following an upset defeat at home. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The highlight of this game might just be the Broncos throwback uniforms because the game itself figures to be a slugfest. The Raiders have won eight straight meetings in this 'rivalry' and I'm hard pressed to come up with any reasons for Denver to be favored in this spot. The Broncos are coming off consecutive road wins over the Buccaneers and Jets but they didn't look overly impressive in either of those contests. Yes, their defense is for real but that unit can't be expected to shoulder the entire load on a weekly basis. I think this is a game where we see the Raiders defensive front control proceedings and ultimately force rookie QB Bo Nix into a couple of critical mistakes. Las Vegas figures to go run-heavy on offense, especially with WR DaVante Adams sidelined while he awaits a trade. That's just fine as QB Gardner Minshew needs to be cautious against an ultra-aggressive Broncos defense. This might just be a game where the points end up coming into play keeping in mind last year's matchup in Denver was decided by a single point (the Raiders won that game 17-16 with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm) and this contest features the lowest total on this week's board (or virtually on par with the Dolphins-Patriots). Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll call for the Panthers to bounce back following last week's home defeat at the hands of a desperate Bengals squad. Veteran QB Andy Dalton has given the Carolina offense some life and I think it can hang, even against a tough Bears defense in Chicago. The Bears delivered a home win over the injury-riddled Rams last Sunday. Note that they're 17-25 ATS in their last 42 home games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Carolina is a long-term winner in a road underdog role having gone 97-78 ATS in its last 175 contests in that situation. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

There will be regression coming for the Vikings at some point but I don't think we see it this week. This is another favorable matchup for the Vikes as they travel to London to take on a Jets squad that is still trying to figure things out. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers was already virtually immobile before suffering a knee injury last week. He's in a nightmarish situation here against an ultra-aggressive Vikes defense. I have little confidence in New York coming up with a gameplan to beat this Brian Flores-led defense that is firing on all cylinders. Offensively, the Vikes are playing smart and I expect them to take what the Jets defense gives them on Sunday. Don't count on a ton of explosiveness out of the Minnesota offense but it will do enough to secure a fifth straight victory. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on California plus the points over Miami at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Hurricanes got a scare at home against Virginia Tech last week. I don't think Miami's first loss of the season is far off at this point and Cal might just be the team to do the deed as it looks to rebound from its own first loss of the campaign last week in Tallahassee. Note that the Bears are an incredible 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games as an underdog of between 7.5 and 14 points. Miami getting involved in so many high-scoring affairs is usually a bad sign moving forward as it has gone 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here. Take California (8*).

My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over Army at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Army has ripped through its first four opponents including a primetime win over Temple in front of a national audience last Thursday night. We've yet to see many flaws in the Black Knights' game but I do think this is a tricky spot as it stays on the road to face 2-2 Tulsa on Saturday. The Golden Hurricane haven't looked overly impressive but two wins are two wins and given their schedule ahead, they'll have every opportunity to reach a Bowl game this season. A win here would obviously massive, not only in working toward that goal but also for the team's confidence following a 52-20 road loss against North Texas last week. I saw enough in Tulsa's road win over Louisiana Tech two weeks ago to believe it can hang with Army in this spot. Army isn't going to run the table this season and we'll take this opportunity to fade it as it remains undefeated in early October. Take Tulsa (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UMass plus the points over Northern Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday.

How quickly things can change. Northern Illinois pulled off a stunning upset win over Notre Dame in South Bend three weeks ago, improving to 2-0 on the season. That victory got the Huskies into the top-25 rankings and even into the expanded College Football Playoff conversation. Since then, Northern Illinois lost in overtime against Buffalo and in another close game on the road against N.C. State last week. I think it's going to be awfully tough for the Huskies to get up for an independent opponent in UMass this week (the Minutemen will join the MAC next season). Another rather sparse crowd is expected at Huskie Stadium and I think the door is open for the Minutemen to stay competitive for four quarters. UMass is off to a 1-4 start but has made some progress. Last Saturday, it gave Miami-Ohio all it could handle in a 23-20 overtime loss. Staying on the road to face another MAC opponent might just be a good thing for the Minutemen before the schedule really toughens up with SEC foe Missouri rolling into Hadley next week (they'll also face two additional SEC opponents in Mississippi State and Georgia later in the season, both away from home). This is just too many points for a pop-gun Huskies Northern Illinois to be laying. Take UMass (10*).

Conference USA Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP plus the points over Sam Houston State at 9 pm et on Thursday.

This is an incredibly tough spot for Sam Houston State as it goes on the road following a thrilling come-from-behind win over Texas State last Saturday. The Bearkats are 4-1 SU and ATS on the season but check in just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Note that they were upset at home 37-34 by UTEP last October. As we know in college football, revenge is a dish best served at home. Here, I expect the Miners to be the more desperate team as they look to avoid an 0-5 start before heading on the road for a difficult game against Western Kentucky. Note that UTEP is a long-term 18-16 ATS against opponents that win 75% or more of their games including a 10-6 ATS mark at home. Take UTEP (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Lions may be considered to be an elite team but there's hasn't really been anything elite about what they've put on tape through three games this season.

Detroit is 2-1 with wins over the Rams and Cardinals (it lost to the Buccaneers in Week 2). The Lions have yet to score more than 24 points in a game. Note that the Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against opponents that allow 175 pass yards per game or less. They're also just 15-23 ATS in their last 38 home contests after giving up 14 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here.

Seattle remains undefeated at 3-0. While I don't love backing undefeated teams, I'm willing to make an exception when that team is catching as many points as the Seahawks are in this spot. Note that Seattle is 31-25 ATS in its last 56 road games against opponents that gain 4.5 yards per rush or more. The Seahawks have been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush.

While most are anticipating a shootout in this game, I'm not convinced we'll see a ton of quick-strike plays. Instead look for these two efficient offenses to churn out long drives that effectively shorten proceedings. That favors the team catching points, especially when spotted more than a field goal. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

While the Dolphins don't instill a ton of confidence right now, neither do the Titans. I like the fact that Miami has settled on a quarterback in Tyler Huntley and he's undoubtedly a better fit for this offense than Skylar Thompson (he's not a fit for any NFL offense).

Note that Tennessee is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road after three straight ATS losses. The Titans are also a miserable 17-28 ATS in their last 45 road contests against opponents that have a win percentage between 25% and 40%.

We've seen the Titans depth-shy defense wilt in each of their first three games and I think the Fins can run an offense that will wear them down on Monday as well. Note that Tennessee is missing arguably its two best players in the secondary in Awuzie and Sneed. Take Miami (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Chargers have major injury concerns right now but we know they're not conceding this divisional matchup as QB Justin Herbert is expected to play through his ankle injury. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season and I like Los Angeles' chances of effectively shortening proceedings on Sunday afternoon and at the very least taking this game down to the wire. Note that Kansas City is just 20-24 ATS in its last 44 road games following a road win, as is the case here. The Chiefs are also just 28-35 ATS in their last 63 road contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 69-53 ATS in their last 122 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points and 38-32 ATS in their last 70 contests against a team that wins 75% or more of its games. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This would typically be a fade spot for the Broncos as they stay on the road for a second straight week following last Sunday's upset win in Tampa. In today's NFL, I'm not so sure it's that straight-forward.

The Jets are simply laying too many points in my opinion. They've been idle since a week ago Thursday when they blasted the division-rival Patriots in a game that was never all that close. Now they get what looks like another gimme on paper but I think it's the type of matchup that can give New York trouble.

New York has a long track record of playing down to the competition, particularly at home. Note that it checks in 33-51 ATS in its last 84 home games against an opponent with a losing record. Additionally, the Jets are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 contests at home against opponents that average 4.75 yards per play or less, as is the case here.

Denver is 35-30 ATS in its last 65 road games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. The Broncos are also 28-24 ATS in their last 52 road games played in the month of September. Denver might not end up being very good this season, but it is quite simply catching too many points in this spot. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers have to be thrilled to be sitting at 2-1 with QB Jordan Love ready to return from injury on Sunday - an injury that was first thought to be far more long-term. I like the Vikings to keep their hot start going on Sunday as they catch the Packers in a letdown of sorts following last Sunday's blowout win in Tennessee. You can be sure the Vikes defense will get after Love and test his mobility in his first game back. I simply feel the Vikings are the more complete team and we're not catching a field goal with the news that Love will start. I'm not convinced the Pack aren't rushing Love back, realizing the importance of this early season divisional showdown. Look for a tightly-contested affair. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game the Buccaneers have had circled on their calendar after dropping a 25-11 decision on Monday Night Football last season. The Eagles will be pleased to simply get out of this game without any additional injuries and a 2-2 record wouldn't be all bad all things considered. While Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley has been the early season MVP, he'll be forced to shoulder too much of the load on Sunday with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith sidelined. The Eagles secondary doesn't match up particularly well against the Bucs receiving corps. After last week's stunning home loss to the Broncos, look for Tampa Bay to bounce back. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Clemson at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Clemson delivered a high-profile 59-35 win over N.C. State last Saturday in a game that wasn't even as competitive as that final score indicated. The Tigers jumped ahead 28-0 before the end of the first quarter and 52-7 early in the third quarter. The Wolfpack weren't even able to run their offensive competently in that game, clearly struggling in the absence of big-time transfer QB Grayson McCall.

I expect a much different story to unfold this Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Stanford comes into this game brimming with confidence following an upset win over Syracuse, on the road no less, in its ACC opener last week. The Cardinal have looked like a true upstart in the early going this season and I'm confident their methodical offense and capable defense will keep them in this game on Saturday.

The Clemson offense is in line for some regression after scoring a ridiculous 125 points over its last two games. Untested since a season-opening 34-3 drubbing at the hands of mighty Georgia, I look for the Tigers to get involved in a battle against one of the ACC's scrappiest newcomers. Note that the Cardinal defense ranks seventh in the country in yards per rush allowed this season. I'm not convinced the Tigers will be able to salt this game away, keeping in mid they allowed N.C. State to score four touchdowns in the game's final 22 minutes last Saturday. Take Stanford (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday.

A couple of strong performances in a losing effort against mighty Georgia and in a blowout victory over Ohio have perhaps given Kentucky bettors a false sense of confidence entering Saturday's difficult road tilt against Ole Miss.

It's easy to forget that the Wildcats were completely outclassed at home against South Carolina on September 7th. I don't think this Kentucky team is nearly as good as the one that only managed to go 7-6 overall and 3-5 in SEC play last year. The Wildcats avoided the Rebels on last year's schedule but won't be so fortune this season.

Ole Miss has yet to be challenged this season, reeling off four straight wins. A road game against Wake Forest was the only significant test and the Rebels passed that with flying colors, winning 40-6. With the schedule about to get a whole lot tougher with consecutive road games against South Carolina and LSU on deck, I look for Lane Kiffin's squad to make the most of the opportunity in front of it on Saturday. Take Ole Miss (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

This is a true 'get right' spot for Dallas on both sides of the football but on defense in particular. The Cowboys have been sieve-like on that side of the football over the last two weeks, getting lit up by the Saints and Ravens, at home no less. While the Giants are coming off their best offensive showing of the season, I don't like their prospects moving forward. New York has superstar-in-the-making WR Malik Nabers but not much else on offense. QB Daniel Jones is a turnover waiting to happen but was helped massively by game script, playing ahead most of the way against Cleveland last Sunday. The Giants defense was able to pin its ears back against Browns washed QB Deshaun Watson but won't be able to do the same against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. This is a massive bounce-back situation for Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb after he encountered blanket coverage against the Ravens last Sunday. I think this is a 'go off' spot for Lamb. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been hearing the critics loud and clear ever since Sunday's loss to Baltimore. The Ravens have the type of offense that can make an opposing defense look bad in any given game, however. The Giants do not. Look for Dallas to key on Nabers and make someone else on the Giants offense beat them on Thursday. It won't happen. Take Dallas (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Buffalo at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

The Bills have had 10 days to pat themselves on the back for their 2-0 start including a blowout win in primetime against division-rival Miami. I expect Buffalo to find the going much tougher against a hungry, winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday.

The Jags have run up against a tough early season schedule, first facing a full-strength Dolphins squad in the sweltering afternoon heat in Miami in Week 1 (they easily could have won that game were it not for a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble) and then hosting a loaded Browns defense that was coming off an embarrassing Week 1 loss at home against the Cowboys. Jacksonville has only been outscored by eight points through two games and that's with its offense producing next-to-nothing (a grand total of 30 points). I feel the Jags best days are ahead of them on offense and like the matchup against the Bills on Monday.

We know this Jacksonville offense can ball out. QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he hasn't been good enough through two games. Much is made about the awful track record of teams starting 0-2 in terms of reaching the playoffs. Keep in mind, the expanded playoffs do throw a wrench in that trend. Jacksonville still has everything to play for and the schedule does get a lot more manageable in October (vs. Colts, at Bears, vs. Patriots and vs. Packers). A win here could certainly flip the script. A loss and the Jags face the very real prospect of an 0-4 start with a difficult trip to Houston on deck next week.

The Bills have looked good through two games but we know what we're going to get with this team and that's often inconsistency. QB Josh Allen is being asked to shoulder more of the load on offense with a talent downgrade in terms of his weapons this season. So far, so good but I expect the Jags defense to offer far more resistance than the Cardinals and Dolphins did in the first two weeks.

Note that these two teams have met twice since 2021 with the Jaguars winning both matchups including a 25-20 victory in Buffalo last year. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to 2016 to find the last time the Bills beat the Jags by more than a field goal. In last year's matchup the Jags prevailed despite Trevor Lawrence being sacked five times and Josh Allen throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns (Jacksonville didn't record a single sack). I think there's actually room for improvement from the Jags on both sides of the football here, yet we're catching a handful of points. Take Jacksonville (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

There's no sugar-coating it, the Panthers season is already swirling down the drain after two nightmarish performances against the Saints and Chargers. But let's pump the brakes on this being an all-timer in terms of bad NFL teams. Carolina's first opponent, the New Orleans Saints, proceeded to throttle the mighty Cowboys the very next week in Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like they know exactly what they're doing under the guidance of Jim Harbaugh, jumping out to an identical 2-0 record to that of the Saints. My point is, perhaps the Panthers aren't quite as bad as most believe they are.

In a move most saw coming, Carolina elected to bench QB Bryce Young following last week's second straight poor showing. Veteran QB Andy Dalton takes over the offense and it's not as if he was signed off his couch. He was with the team last year and should be comfortable running the offense. I'm a believer that Dalton can at the very least settle things down and ultimately elevate this offense. It's not as if the Panthers are completely bereft of talent. This is an excellent spot for Carolina to regain its footing on offense as the Raiders have been matador-like in terms of run defense, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush through two games.

Las Vegas falls into a clear letdown situation here as it returns home after a massive come-from-behind upset win in Baltimore last Sunday. Few gave the Raiders a chance entering that game and certainly not when they were down double-digits in the second half. We saw Las Vegas open up the offense in that contest but that had a lot to do with game script as it was trailing by a considerable number of points. I suspect we see head coach Antonio Pierce's conservative tendencies resurface in this game as the Raiders go back to running the football. That's in our best interest as well as it effectively shortens the game and favors the team catching points.

It's critical not to over-react to NFL results on a week-to-week basis and I think that's precisely what the betting marketplace is doing by installing the Raiders are sizable favorites on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Panthers but hopefully won't need them. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Things could have gone sideways in a hurry for the Packers following the injury to QB Jordan Love in Week 1. However, we saw Green Bay pick up a much-needed win at home against Indianapolis last Sunday to give it a lift heading into this tougher than it may seem matchup in Tennessee in Week 3. Love is back practising and the betting markets have reacted by pushing this line in the Packers favor. I don't expect him to play but even if he does, I still like the winless Titans in this spot.

Green Bay's gameplan last week involved hiding backup QB Malik Willis and letting its defense take care of the rest. That approach worked wonders against an awful Colts run defense, not to mention an Indy offense that will struggle to play from behind all season. I expect a different story to unfold against the Titans.

Were it not for a couple of glaring mistakes from Tennessee QB Will Levis last week against the Jets, it likely would have controlled that contest from start to finish and picked up its first win of the season.

The Titans defense has impressed me. It had Jets QB Aaron Rodgers under duress all afternoon long.

Offensively, I would anticipate Tennessee going back to a run-centric approach against a Packers defense you can most definitely run on (Green Bay has allowed 5.5 yards per rush and two rushing touchdowns through two games). Backing the 0-2 Titans laying points against a potential playoff team may not be the easiest bet to make this week but I believe it's the right one. Take Tennessee (10*).

My selection is on Michigan plus the points over USC at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't like the way this situation sets up at all for USC as it travels across the country for its first true road game, and first Big Ten showdown against a Michigan squad that got flat out embarrassed in its first nationally-televised showcase game against Texas two weeks ago. Look for the Wolverines to put forth a much sharper performance this time around. The total says a lot about how this game is expected to play out as it sits in the low-40's. I'm expecting Michigan to do what it can to take the air out of the football and effectively shorten proceedings by leaning heavily on its ground attack. Alex Orji gets the start at quarterback, also showing the Wolverines hand a little bit. The Trojans have certainly impressed in their first two games but I think they're in for a battle here. Take Michigan (8*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Navy plus the points over Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Navy has undoubtedly had this in-conference showdown circled on its calendar after giving Memphis all it could handle in an eventual 28-24 defeat in Tennessee last year. Were it not for that loss, the Midshipmen would have gone Bowling.

Consider this a tough spot for the Tigers as they stay on the road for a second straight game after springing an upset win over reeling Florida State in Tallahassee last week. While that victory may not be as big given how the Seminoles have struggled, it's still one that could lead to a letdown this week.

These two programs are certainly familiar with one another having met in each of the last nine seasons. The Tigers have reeled off five straight wins in the series after dropping three of the first four.

Navy enters this game with a different mindset this year, sporting a 2-0 record. I like the experience the Middies return on both sides of the football and believe they can throw a wrench in the Tigers hopes of a potential undefeated regular season (it's on the table following the win at Florida State).

These two teams have split four previous meetings in Annapolis with Memphis winning only one of those games by more than a field goal. Take Navy (10*).

My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Wolfpack will get an opportunity for a do-over of sorts as they square off against Clemson in a nationally-televised early kickoff matchup on Saturday. Remember, two weeks ago N.C. State was throttled in a primetime game at home against Tennessee.

While it may seem like it, the sky is not falling at N.C. State. Yes, Grayson McCall - the team's prized QB transfer from Coastal Carolina - was injured in last week's closer-than-expected win over Louisiana Tech. He won't play against Clemson, meaning freshman C.J. Bailey, who got his legs under him in last Saturday's win, will be tasked with running the offense. I don't feel that McCall has been quite as good as advertised through two-plus games so I'm not sure that the move to Bailey should be as big of a deal in the betting marketplace as it has been (this line has risen considerably since opening).

Clemson opened its campaign with an ugly loss to Georgia in Atlanta before returning home to dust Appalachian State 66-20 in Week 2. Last week, the Tigers had a dreaded early season bye week. The runway is clear for Clemson to reel off a number of wins in a row from here (including this one) but not a lot has come easy for the Tigers over the last couple of seasons.

While this matchup was once a walk in the park for Clemson, it has been a battle in recent years. In fact, the last three meetings going back to 2021 have all been decided by 10 points or less with N.C. State winning two of those games.

I think Dave Doeren's Wolfpack will rally around the injury to McCall and we'll see the defense in particular rise up in this their first road test of the season. Take N.C. State (8*).

My selection is on Washington State minus the points over San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday.

Washington State blew the doors off Texas Tech two weeks ago and then followed that up with an Apple Cup victory over rival Washington last Saturday. Still, the Cougars find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the national top-25 rankings go. That could change after this week's game.

San Jose State enters this contest sporting an identical 3-0 record to that of Washington State. Not all undefeated records are created equally, however. The Spartans have defeated the likes of Sacramento State, Air Force and Kennesaw State. Yes, the win over Air Force, in Colorado Springs no less, was impressive. However, the case can be made that the Falcons just aren't very good this year as they proceeded to get crushed 31-3 against Baylor last week. San Jose State has set itself up well to reach a Bowl game as there are a number of winnable games on its schedule with only three more victories needed (I realize talking about Bowl games is a little ridiculous in the middle of September). I just don't believe this is one of them.

The Spartans haven't had much of a run game to speak of so far this season. It's going to be difficult to stay competitive if they can't effectively shorten proceedings by running the football and eating the clock in this environment.

The Cougars look like they've got a good one in QB John Mateer and I really like the way they involve everyone on offense and take calculated chances on defense. There's a real path for them to have a truly special season given their manageable schedule and I expect them to take full advantage to showcase what they've got in a Friday primetime game in Pullman. Left without a seat in the game of conference realignment musical chairs, this is a team that's playing with a real chip on its shoulder. Take Washington State (8*).

NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that the Commanders managed to score 20 points in last week's loss in Tampa masked their ineptness. This is a bad team and one that I don't think has a lot of room for improvement on a week-to-week basis.

QB Jayden Daniels showed flashes against the Buccaneers but much of his success came on the ground. He took plenty of physical abuse in that game, to the point that head coach Dan Quinn mentioned in his post-game presser that Daniels won't be able to be subject to that sort of punishment moving forward. I'm anticipating an already limited offense might just simplify and scale things back even more this week. The Giants defense is loaded up front and capable of taking over this game.

Offensively, the Giants are a bit of a mess. However, I don't think things are quite as bad as they're being made out to be. QB Daniel Jones has taken a ton of criticism throughout his NFL career and it's often deserved. I do think he saves face for a week at least as he should be able to pick apart a porous Washington secondary. Rookie WR Malik Nabers was held relatively quiet in last week's loss to Minnesota. He figures to go off this week. Nabers was listed as limited on Thursday's practice report but all indications it was just a minor scare related to leg soreness.

Unlike the Commanders, who entered the season with extremely low expectations, the Giants need to right the ship in a hurry. Their schedule only gets tougher with a trip to Cleveland next week followed by a Thursday night home game against the Cowboys. Looking ahead even further, they'll travel to Seattle in Week 5 and then host the Bengals in Week 6. I could go on but the fact is, without a victory on Sunday there's a better than zero chance that New York doesn't win a game for a long time. Take New York (10*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for Kentucky. Most are down on the Wildcats after they got drilled in their SEC opener against South Carolina last Saturday, at home no less. The Wildcat faithful were heading for the exits early in the fourth quarter in that contest but I expect a different story to unfold as they host mighty Georgia this week.

The Bulldogs will travel for the first time this season (their season-opener against Clemson was played at a 'neutral site' in Atlanta) after starting a perfect 2-0. While they've owned this series and took last year's matchup by a 51-13 score, recent meetings in Lexington have been competitive. In fact, during Georgia's current 14-game winning streak against Kentucky, it has won by more than 17 points on the road only once (in the last seven matchups in Lexington). In fact, the Dawgs have won by more than 17 in Lexington only once in the last nine matchups here.

This game obviously carries a little extra meaning for Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff - a former five-star recruit by Georgia. Last week's shortcomings can't all be pinned on the QB - he was only part of the problem. I look for the Wildcats to clean things up this week and ultimately give the mighty Dawgs more of a fight than most expect. Take Kentucky (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

UCLA delivered a ho-hum 16-13 win over Hawaii in its season-opener two weeks ago. A bye week early in the season isn't always welcomed but I think the Bruins - a team in a transition period on offense - were all for it. I'm anticipating a much sharper performance from the UCLA offense this week as the Bruins play their first-ever Big Ten game against Indiana.

The Hoosiers turned heads by putting up a school-record 77 points in last week's win over FCS squad Western Illinois. Indiana's potential defensive warts have been masked by an easy early season schedule that also included a game against Florida International. This will be the Hoosiers first road trip of the season.

While the Hoosiers have gotten off to a hot start offensively, I like the matchup for the Bruins defense here. UCLA stocked up in the right areas in the transfer portal and many of the new faces played key roles in the season-opening win over Hawaii (that was fuelled by the defense). Watch for transfers DL Jacob Busic and DB K.J. Wallace. Wallace had nine tackles and a sack in the opener while Busic contributed a pair of tackles to go along with a sack. Take UCLA (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Massachusetts at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo looked like it was simply in it for the payday last Saturday on the road against fast-rising SEC squad Missouri. The Bulls didn't put up much of a fight and barely appeared to break a sweat in a 38-0 loss (they possessed the football for just over 21 minutes and attempted only 20 passes). I expect a much different story to unfold as the Bulls return home to host Massachusetts on Saturday.

I'm still higher on this Buffalo squad than most. I like the pieces the Bulls have in place on both sides of the football and feel this is a matchup they can take full advantage of.

UMass is off to an 0-2 start having already faced a pair of other MAC squads. While the Minutemen did cover the spread on the road against Toledo last week that had more to do with the Rockets looking disinterested than anything else. UMass didn't reach the end zone until just under three minutes remaining in the first half in that contest and not again until less than three minutes were left in the fourth quarter.

UMass QB Taisun Phommachanh has been running for his life for most of the first two games and that should be the case again on Saturday. He's been pretty much the team's entire offense through two games and that's not a good thing. The Minutemen defense has been on the field too much and looked broken down late in last week's contest, allowing three touchdowns in the game's final 20 minutes. Take Buffalo (8*).

My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Louisiana Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Everything went wrong for N.C. State in last Saturday's drubbing at the hands of Tennessee - in front of a national tv audience no less. The Wolfpack also got a scare from Western Carolina in their season-opener so I don't need to tell you how important a strong performance is here against Louisiana Tech on Saturday.

This is a smash spot for N.C. State. The Wolfpack have all the talent in place, now they need to show it on the field before the schedule toughens up with a trip to Clemson on deck next week.

Louisiana Tech is off to a 1-0 start to the season after posting a 25-17 home win over FCS squad Nicholls State two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have questions at quarterback with Jack Turner exiting the opener with an injury (he wasn't all that effective before leaving the game). This is a Louisiana Tech team that lost a ton of talent from last year's team - particularly on offense. Diminutive burner WR Smoke Harris has been the offense in recent years but he's no longer in the picture. Consider this a 'wrong place at the wrong time' situation for Louisiana Tech. Take N.C. State (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Steelers defense was already elite before adding CB Donte Jackson from Carolina and LB Patrick Queen from Baltimore. The gameplan for Pittsburgh is simple. Play a game of hide-the-quarterback, run the football and lean on its defense to secure a road win in Week 1. I like the matchup for the Steelers.

Atlanta is saddled with fairly high expectations this season after bringing in a competent veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins. After signing Cousins to a big deal the Falcons went out and drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the opening round. I don't love the fit for Cousins. I'll also take a 'believe it when I see it' approach to the Atlanta offense taking a big leap with former head coach Arthur Smith having moved on to Pittsburgh (as offensive coordinator). I fully expect the Falcons to remain a little too conservative on offense (given their defensive short-comings) with defensive-minded Raheem Morris taking over as head coach.

We could very well see both teams employ similar gameplans here as they look to effectively shorten proceedings in an effort to start the campaign off with a victory. A lower-scoring game certainly favors the underdog and I like Pittsburgh in that role out of the gates. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers started last season 0-6 and ultimately won only two games in what was a truly disastrous campaign. By all accounts, the needle is pointing up entering the 2024 season with first-year head coach Dave Canales taking over after a successful stint at the Buccaneers offensive coordinator. This is the perfect opportunity for the Panthers to make a statement that things will be different this year after getting swept in the season series against the division-rival Saints last year.

Full disclosure, this play is more about fading the favored Saints and what I consider to be the league's worst head coach-QB tandem in Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Allen is as conservative as it gets in today's NFL and I don't need to tell you that doesn't generally lead to success beating pointspreads. Carr has never seen a check-down he doesn't like and is clearly on the downside of his career. He'll be leaning heavily on RB Alvin Kamara who doesn't figure to have much tread left on his tires. I am high on Saints WR Chris Olave but that's it on an otherwise pedestrian offensive attack that has an extremely low ceiling thanks to an awful offensive line.

The Saints dominated this matchup last year and Panthers QB Bryce Young in particular. That's clearly been baked into this pointspread, however, as has been the offseason talent rotation out of Carolina's defense. I like the 'nobody believes in us' angle with underdogs like the Panthers early in the season, before all hope is potentially lost, and certainly in division games such as this one. Take Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Georgia Southern plus the points over Nevada at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Nevada has been one of the good stories in the early going this season. Little was expected from the Wolf Pack this season but they started off by giving SMU all it could handle and then staged an upset win on the road against Troy last week. I'm not convinced Nevada will keep the positive vibes building on Saturday, however, as it hosts Georgia Southern.

The Eagles nearly pulled off an upset of their own last week but ultimately fell short in a wild 56-45 decision against Boise State. Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty was the story in that contest. Georgia Southern won't have to contend with a future pro runner like that this week.

With the Sun Belt Conference figuring to be extremely competitive this year, the Eagles need to win all the games they should if they're going to go Bowling again. I think they're good enough to do so. While they get a favorable home date against FCS squad South Carolina State next week, they'll have to travel to face Ole Miss the next Saturday. In other words, a loss here and they're staring down a 1-3 record heading into a tough Sun Belt schedule.

This is a game where I expect Georgia Southern's defense to bounce back. Nevada's offense isn't all that difficult to scheme against. The Wolf Pack have a game manager in QB Brendon Lewis running the offense. They'll look to successfully run the football, just as Boise State did against Georgia Southern last week. I'm just not convinced they'll enjoy the same level of success - in fact, I know they won't. The Eagles are far better defensively than they showed - that poor performance had more to do with a talented Broncos offense than anything else.

Offensively, Georgia Southern is still a work-in-progress but I do think there are enough weapons to outlast Nevada on Saturday. Consider this a 'wrong team favored' type of game. Take Georgia Southern (8*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Missouri at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Talk about a lack of respect. While I understand Missouri is on a rocket ship as a football program and has the potential to shake up the new-look SEC this year, I don't think Buffalo is the down-trodden MAC squad that most believe it is.

Entering the campaign, most had the Bulls pegged to finish third-last in the MAC, ahead of only Ball State and Akron. It's early and that's certainly in the range of possible outcomes but I liked what I saw from Buffalo in its season-opener, even though it came against an FCS opponent in Lafayette last week.

In that contest, the Bulls didn't allow a touchdown (or any points for that matter) until just shy of five minutes into the third quarter. Offensively, QB C.J. Ogbonna showed that he can be more than just a runner, passing for just shy of 200 yards and two touchdowns. WR Nik McMillan has a chance to be a star in this offense and he showed flashes last week, hauling in five catches for 76 yards and a score. Boston College transfer Taji Johnson has the potential to be a load for opposing secondaries as well. His big frame made two catches for 39 yards and a touchdown in the win.

The ground game will be key here as the Bulls have an elite offensive line capable of paving the way for a terrific stable of running backs. I think Buffalo has a good chance of controlling the clock for stretches and ultimately shortening this football game - that's music to the ears of bettors grabbing as many points as we are here.

There's not a lot bad I can say about Missouri's 51-0 romp over Murray State last week. You do wonder whether we'll see the Tigers empty the tank here, however, with the schedule about to toughen up with a game against Boston College next week (followed by the start of SEC play a week later). Note that after scoring four touchdowns (three on offense) in the game's first 12 minutes last week, the Tigers only reached the end zone two more times the rest of the way and one of those scores came with just one second remaining before halftime. I certainly do think Buffalo can give Missouri a bit more of a push than FCS squad Murray State did. This is quite simply too many points. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Friday.

I'm not quite as high on the Eagles as some entering the 2024 season. Yes, they're still going to contend for the NFC East title. However, I also think there's a good chance we see the Packers rise to elite status and want to be on board before the train leaves the station early in the campaign as far as value goes.

Green Bay made a number of savvy offseason moves, on both sides of the football. There was little subtraction from a core that improved steadily and elevated down the stretch last season. Instead, the Packers added key pieces that have the potential to put them over the hump and make them a true contender in the NFC this year.

Of course, this is a terrific early measuring stick game for the Packers. It's similar to the situation the Ravens were in last night, but Baltimore undoubtedly entered the season with more questions than Green Bay. The Ravens were also up against a truly elite Chiefs squad that certainly didn't forget opening last season with a Thursday night loss to Detroit.

I'm sure the Packers feel a little disrespected to be opening the season as underdogs in this neutral site contest. They want to be in the same conversation with the Eagles as far as NFC contenders go and I expect them to come out and make a statement on Friday. Take Green Bay (8*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Old Dominion plus the points over South Carolina at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

Last year, we successfully faded Old Dominion in Week 1 as it was in the wrong place at the wrong time, facing a revenge-minded Virginia Tech squad in Blacksburg, Expectations aren't all that high for Old Dominion this season, even if they've exceeded them time and time again. I like the continuity for the Monarchs with Ricky Rahne having been the head coach since 2020 and finally a carry-over at quarterback in Grant Wilson returning. Wilson is a standout but certainly not a household name. I like his chances of steadying the Monarchs offense and ultimately keeping his team competitive in this game.

South Carolina ushers in a new era at quarterback with LaNorris Sellers taking over. The redshirt freshman is loaded with potential as a dual-threat to ignite the Gamecocks offense. I'm just not sure an offense gets better by losing the likes of WR's Xavier Legette and Antwane Wells and TE Trey Knox. The fact that Sellers will be taking over the offense for the first time with a slew of other new faces is concerning from a pointspread perspective at least.

Much like Grant Wilson is the unquestioned leader on offense, the Monarchs boast a good one on defense as well in LB Jason Henderson. He led the entire country in tackles last season and is back to lead the way in 2024. Of course, there are changes to deal with on the defensive side of the football - par for the course in today's college football world. If there's a weakness or question mark on the Monarchs defense it's in the secondary, but I'm not convinced Sellers will be able to take full advantage right out of the gates.

I mentioned expectations are rather low for Old Dominion. Most have it pegged for sixth place (out of seven teams) in the ultra-competitive Sun Belt East Division. We're talking about a team that made great strides last season and narrowly missed out on a Bowl victory. I'm willing to give the Monarchs the benefit of the doubt, even against an SEC foe on the road in Week 1. Look for a closer game than most are expecting. Take Old Dominion (10*).

My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Vanderbilt is coming off another disastrous season and has basically gone back to the drawing board in advance of the 2024 campaign, making near wholesale changes in terms of both player personnel and coaches. QB Diego Pavia joints the team from New Mexico State but you have to wonder what sort of impact he'll make in the opener as the Commodores haven't even named their starting QB (Utah transfer Nate Johnson has been competing with Pavia for the starting job). I wonder whether either QB has a good handle on the offense right now, with so many new faces in the mix.

Virginia Tech got off to a predictably strong start last year, routing Old Dominion in its season-opener. Things went sideways from there but a funny thing happened down the stretch as the Hokies offense ignited and their defense came together, winning five of their final seven games including a Bowl rout of Tulane.

Expectations are high for the Hokies heading into 2024 but that's not necessarily a bad thing. I like the fact that they're opening the campaign on the road and fully expect them to make a statement against a beatable SEC foe.

Unlike Vandy, Virginia Tech boasts a ton of returning talent on both sides of the football. The continuity between QB and receivers can't be understated with Kyron Drones coming off a breakout campaign and in line for more success with the likes of WRs Ali Jennings and Jaylin Lane and TE Nick Gallo back as weapons. Also note that four of five starters return on the offensive line.

Defensively the Hokies are loaded. I like the matchup here as they have the athleticism to contend with Pavia should he end up being Vandy's starter under center. This isn't an overly big defense but that's not a bad thing against a dual-threat QB like Pavia. Take Virginia Tech (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over North Carolina at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup.

Yes, North Carolina rolled Minnesota 31-13 last year. That was a completely different matchup as the Tar Heels offense was led by now-New England Patriot QB Drake Maye and the Golden Gophers were a shell of their former selves on both sides of the football. The Tar Heels undoubtedly remain the flashier team and certainly the easier side to click the 'bet' button in support of. I'm just not convinced they get the cash here in Week 1.

Minnesota ushers in a new era offensively with former FCS standout QB Max Brosmer taking over the reins. Perhaps even more importantly for a team that wants to run the football and control time of possession, the Gophers backfield is revamped and reloaded thanks to the transfer portal. I expect this new-look Gophers offense to find success against a beatable Tar Heels defense.

North Carolina reeled off six straight victories to open last season. In fact, the Tar Heels have gotten off to hot starts in each of the last two campaigns. I think this year's North Carolina group is more similar to the team that opened with just two wins in its first four contests in 2021, however. That squad lost its opener 17-10 on the road against Virginia Tech. Of note, that's the last time the Tar Heels started the season with a true road game, as is the case here. UNC feels good about transfer QB Max Johnson but I'm not sure he's the polished passer that Brosmer is for Minnesota.

While it's only Week 1, this is a key game for the Gophers as they'll open the season with four straight home tilts. Talk about an opportunity to 'set the tone'. I look for P.J. Fleck's squad to take advantage of the opportunity. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points.

Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

It shouldn't be difficult at all for the Huskies to play the 'nobody believes in us' card in Monday's National Championship showdown against Michigan. You'd be hard-pressed to find many willing to pick Washington to win this game outright, that's for sure. I simply feel it's going to be tough for Michigan to go from winning 'that' game against Alabama in last Monday's Rose Bowl, in overtime no less, to getting right back up for what many believe to be a lesser opponent in Washington. Just think about everything the Wolverines have been through this season. Yes, winning a national title would represent a storybook finish but things don't always go as planned. Washington is no pushover. This is a team that seems to have gotten stronger with each passing game, first upsetting Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then defeating Texas in a thriller in the Sugar Bowl last Monday. Note that Washington is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Michigan is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 contests after three straight ATS victories as a favorite. The Wolverines are also a miserable 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games when priced as a favorite of between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Monday.

Talk about disrespect. Iowa enters the Citrus Bowl sporting a better record than Tennessee and is almost certainly bringing a more complete roster to the game than the Vols, yet here it is installed as a considerable underdog in a game that figures to be low-scoring (a situation that would certainly favor the Hawkeyes). Note that Iowa has reeled off four wins in its last five Bowl appearances (the lone loss came by just three points against Kentucky on this field two years ago to the day) and figures to be in a foul mood after a 26-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes won't have standout TE Erick All or QB Cade McNamara but we know they're not all about offense anyway. I'm confident the Iowa defense will be fired up about facing Vols highly-touted blue chip freshman QB recruit Nico Iamaleava rather than Joe Milton in this matchup. Note that Iowa is an incredible 66-33 ATS in its last 99 games after losing ATS in two of its last three contests, as is the case here. The Hawkeyes are also 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games a neutral field underdog of a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Tennessee is a miserable 42-61 ATS in its last 103 games following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take Iowa (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Toledo plus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This line has shifted considerably with the news that Toledo QB Dequan Finn has entered the transfer portal and will miss this game. I still like Toledo's chances of giving Wyoming all it can handle on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Rockets will be out to erase the memory of a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Miami-Ohio. There's no reason for the disappointment to linger as you could argue the Rockets still ended up with a higher-profile Bowl game. Wyoming closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Hawaii and Nevada. The Cowboys inability to step up in class turned out to be their downfall in the Mountain West Conference this season as they fell short against the likes of Air Force, Boise State and UNLV. I expect them to similarly have their hands full with a very capable Rockets squad here. Note that Toledo is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest, as is the case here. Wyoming is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after posting a road victory by 28 points or more. Take Toledo (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss plus the points over Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Ole Miss has to feel pretty good at itself for reaching the Peach Bowl with a 10-2 record this season. The Rebels only two losses came against Alabama and Georgia. I like their chances of hanging tough against Penn State here. The Nittany Lions closed out the regular season with consecutive blowout wins over Rutgers and Michigan State. Note that Ole Miss is a long-term 63-46 ATS against non-conference opponents and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Bowl games. Penn State checks in just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games following a shutout victory, as is the case here. On the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, I look for the Rebels offense to thrive. Take Ole Miss (8*).

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Notre Dame at 2 pm et on Friday.

I can't imagine this game means a whole lot to Notre Dame as a program. This is a team that wants to be playing for national championships, not second-rate Bowl game victories. The Irish put the clamps on Wake Forest and Stanford in their final two regular season games, rolling to lopsided victories. Their roster on Friday will be a far cry from the one that delivered those knockout blows, however. Oregon State will be missing plenty of key contributors from the regular season as well. I do think the Beavers will be playing with a considerable chip on their shoulder, however, as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak to wrap up the campaign (the 31-7 loss to rival Oregon in their regular season finale certainly stung). Oregon State will be making its fourth straight Bowl appearance having gone 2-1 SU in the previous three. Note that the Beavers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games played with extended rest. Take Oregon State (8*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over SMU at 11 am et on Thursday.

SMU rolled to a double-digit win in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane but I expect it to have a tougher time getting up for this early start Bowl game against a 6-6 Boston College team. The Eagles will of course have the advantage of playing this game in their own backyard at Fenway Park in Boston. We'll simply fade a Mustangs squad that has reeled off nine straight wins, noting that they're 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after winning four or more games in a row. The Eagles check in 18-12 ATS in their last 30 games after suffering consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Boston College (8*).

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Virginia Tech at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

Things didn't look all that promising for Virginia Tech after it got off to a 1-3 start this season. A lopsided win over Pittsburgh on the final day of September gave the Hokies some confidence and from there they scratched and clawed their way to six victories to gain Bowl eligibility. They're being favored by a considerable number of points on Wednesday as Tulane has a number of key contributors sitting out including do-it-all QB Michael Pratt. I like the spot for the Green Wave here, however, as they come in with a sour taste in their mouths after suffering a double-digit loss against SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Virginia Tech routed rival Virginia 55-17 back on November 25th. That's notable as the Hokies are a miserable 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games played away from home after a win by 21 points or more over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Tulane has reached six Bowl games since 2013, going 4-2 with the only double-digit loss coming by 11 points against Nevada in 2020. Take Tulane (8*).

My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

The thinking here is that UNLV isn't ready to hang with the big boys having ended the regular season with a thud in consecutive losses against San Jose State and Boise State (in the Mountain West Conference championship game). I actually think the Runnin' Rebels draw a favorable matchup here with Kansas having yet to win a Bowl game in program history (0-9). The Jayhawks aren't a good defensive team, even if they did close out the regular season with a blowout win over Cincinnati. The Rebels will certainly be comfortable playing indoors at Chase Field in Phoenix, a reasonable facsimile for their own home field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Note that Kansas is a long-term loser at 156-197 ATS while UNLV has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight non-conference affairs. Take UNLV (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Chanticleers will be missing a number of key players that are currently in the transfer portal. I think we’re seeing an overreaction from the betting markets, however. The players that will take the field for Coastal Carolina will be desperate to avoid a third straight loss to close out the season. For a winning program like CCU that’s simply unacceptable. San Jose State started the season 1-5 before going on a run. Off an upset win over UNLV on the road we’ll fade the Spartans as they shift into the role of big favorite here. Take Coastal Carolina (8*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Troy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It can be difficult enough to get up for a pre-Christmas Bowl game, especially in today's college football landscape. For Troy, it enters this matchup riding a 10-game winning streak, having been favored in each of its last nine contests (make it 10 straight including this one). Much of the story around this game will be who isn't playing for the Blue Devils. I'm confident we'll see Duke rise to the occasion, however, and salvage the finale of a season that started off so promising back in early September. Remember, the Blue Devils opened the campaign with four straight victories, including a thrilling opening week victory over Clemson. The wheels came off from mid-October to mid-November but Duke didn't quit, managing to split its final four games, losing by a combined five points in the two losses over that stretch. Note that Troy checks in 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 31 or more points in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Duke is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 lined non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven December Bowl games. Take Duke (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Georgia Tech at 6:30 pm et on Friday.

It appeared all hope of reaching a Bowl game was lost for Central Florida following a five-game losing streak that stretched from late-September through the end of October. That slide came in advance of a difficult four-game season-ending stretch that included matchups with Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Houston. Instead of folding the tent, the Golden Knights turned their season around, winning three of those four contests to gain Bowl eligibility. While an appearance in the Gasparilla Bowl may not be all that enticing to some teams, I expect the Knights to relish the opportunity to play a once-unlikely December game. It was an interesting season for Georgia Tech as it staged upset wins over Miami (whether that victory was deserving or not is up for debate) and North Carolina and gave in-state rival Georgia all it could handle in the final week of the regular season. I didn't come away overly impressed by the Yellow Jackets as a whole, however, and believe they'll have a difficult time keeping pace with the Knights offense on Friday. Note that these two teams actually met last season with UCF cruising to a 27-10 win at home. Revenge is generally a dish best served at home and in this particular rematch, the Yellow Jackets will once again travel to Florida. Take Central Florida (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Rams nearly let the Commanders off the hook in Sunday's 28-20 win. They did hold on for the cover - their fourth straight ATS victory. Speaking of winning streaks, the Saints enter this game 'fat and happy' off consecutive blowout home wins over the Panthers and Giants. New York inexplicably elected to abandon its ground game against New Orleans' charmin-soft run defense and ultimately paid the price. I'm confident we'll see the Rams display a more balanced offensive attack here and wear down the New Orleans defense. There's little reason to have much faith in the Saints offense. They've run for 100+ yards just twice in their last six games and have topped 250 passing yards only once over that stretch (in a nine-point loss in Atlanta). Note that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series with none of those eight victories coming by fewer than six points. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendars since the start of the season - a long-awaited rematch with the Bills after dropping a 26-15 decision at home against Buffalo back in 2019. That most recent meeting between these two teams four years ago also featured the quarterback matchup of Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for 355 yards in a losing effort on that day. He's been MVP-worthy this season and while Dallas is likely to stumble at some point, I don't see it coming here. Buffalo is fresh off a massive road win over the Chiefs last Sunday. I expect the Bills success to be short-lived, however, noting they haven't strung together consecutive wins since a three-game winning streak from September 17th to October 1st. Note that Buffalo is a long-term 57-90 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in its last three games, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I generally anticipate games getting tighter and tighter at this time of year in Cleveland, where the December weather can be unpredictable and the Browns tend to go conservative in nature on offense. The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three games in a row ATS and an impressive 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine contests. That's in stark contrast to the Browns, who have dropped two of their last three games both SU and ATS and narrowly avoided coughing up a back-door cover against the Jags (in a game where Jacksonville didn't bring anything close to its 'A' game) last Sunday. Cleveland has inexplicably thrown the ball 89 times in the last two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I'm confident fading Flacco and the Browns offense here as the veteran QB is likely to be under duress all afternoon long against a much-improved Bears pass rush. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over California at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

California closed out the regular season with about as big of a win as you can get in Berkeley, defeating rival UCLA 33-7, securing Bowl eligibility in the process. The Bears needed to use everything they had in the tank to earn a Bowl spot, winning their final three games. Of course, they were favored in two of those contests so it's not as if it was a monumental accomplishment. Here, I think Cal is in the wrong place at the wrong time as it runs into a Texas Tech squad that will be eager to make amends for an embarrassing 57-7 loss against Texas in its regular season finale. The Red Raiders picked up some nice wins this season including on the road against Baylor and Kansas and at home against TCU. There were some bad losses in the mix as well but as a whole I was more encouraged by the Red Raiders consistency than I was with the Bears. Note that the loss against Texas sets Texas Tech up well here as it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, Cal is a long-term 20-25 ATS in its last 45 games following an upset victory. Take Texas Tech (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*).

My selection is on Fresno State plus the points over New Mexico State at 5:45 pm et on Saturday.

Perhaps home field advantage is weighing heavily on this line with New Mexico State playing in its own backyard against reeling Fresno State on Saturday. If anything, I think it's the visiting Bulldogs that have a lot more to prove after their regular season ended with a thud with three straight losses to take it out of Mountain West Conference title contention. Fresno State had everything in front of it after a home win over Boise State on November 4th but it all unravelled from there. The Bulldogs are precisely the type of team I like to back come Bowl season. As much as it's thought that teams have a tendency to quit after a disappointing finish the campaign, once the ball is kicked off, they're often the teams that find their motivation and end up coming out on top. I would lump New Mexico State in the 'happy to be here' category as the Aggies were an afterthought at the start of the season but ended up winning 10 games including an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak from October 4th to November 25th and an upset win over rival New Mexico. Note that Fresno State checks in 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. New Mexico State is a long-term 32-37 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite. Take Fresno State (8*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers caught the Lions flat-footed on Thanksgiving Day. It almost seemed as if Detroit thought Green Bay would simply roll over but that was far from the case. Here, I expect the Chiefs to be business-like in their approach once again, noting they're a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against non-conference opponents. As expected we heard plenty of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' whispers following their 21-17 home loss to the Eagles on MNF a couple of weeks ago. After a sluggish start in Las Vegas last Sunday, Kansas City eventually rolled to a two-touchdown victory. I expect plenty of carry-over from that flawless second half performance on Sunday night in Green Bay. This is another 'get right' spot against a Packers squad that just isn't as good as it looked in posting consecutive wins over the last two weeks. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not ready to write off the Browns just yet. Yes, they're coming off a disheartening loss to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday in a game that completely got away from them. I fully expect them to bounce back this week as they stay on the road to face the Rams, who are in a fairly obvious letdown spot off consecutive wins, including a blowout victory in Arizona last week. Are the Rams as good as they looked against the Cardinals? Probably not. Are the Browns as bad as they appeared against the Broncos? Certainly not. Keep in mind, prior to that loss in Denver, Cleveland had reeled off three consecutive wins SU and four in a row ATS. Yes, the Browns offense remains extremely limited but I think their defense can do a lot of the heavy lifting on Sunday, ultimately creating enough splash plays to give their offense some short fields to work with. Note that the Rams are a woeful 3-10 in their last 13 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against NFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm just not ready to buy in to the Steelers being installed as considerable favorites against any opponent, let alone a Cardinals squad that's fresh off an embarrassing 37-14 rout at the hands of the division rival Rams last week. Arizona has now dropped back-to-back games but is still 3-2 ATS over its last five contests. The Steelers picked up a massive come-from-behind win in Cincinnati last Sunday but let's not start planning the parade just yet. That came against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad. Note that Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when priced as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.6 points in that situation. I think the pacific time zone team playing an early game in the east angle is overblown and will grab all the points I can get with the Cards on Sunday. Take Arizona (8*).

Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisville plus the points over Florida State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Really tough spot for Florida State here as it marches on without Jordan Travis and possibly its backup quarterback as well against a Louisville squad that will be looking to play spoiler on Saturday in Charlotte. The Seminoles survived their first test without Travis, defeating rival Florida 24-15 last Saturday. This is a much tougher matchup, however, as they go up against a Cardinals squad that dropped a 38-31 decision against Kentucky last week but checks in 10-2 on the season and a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Florida State can only lean on its defense so much, noting that it mustered just 224 total yards on offense in last week's victory. Last year, Louisville let the Seminoles off the hook at home, blowing a 21-14 halftime lead in an eventual 35-31 defeat. Expect the Cardinals to get their revenge here. Take Louisville (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Ducks have to be happy to be afforded the opportunity to avenge their only loss suffered this season on Friday against Washington. Oregon actually dominated most of the way against the Huskies back on October 14th in Seattle, racking up over 500 yards of total offense, but Washington came up with the critical plays late and ultimately secured a wild 36-33 victory. I don't expect this game to be as tightly-contested. The Pac-12 Championship Game was introduced in 2011 and since then we've seen plenty of blowouts. In fact, eight of the 12 games have been decided by 18 or more points. While Oregon's offense kept humming down the stretch, we saw some regression from Michael Penix and the Huskies. Washington could only muster 22 and 24 points in its final two regular season games against Oregon State and Washington State, completing just 31-of-61 passes for 366 yards in those contests. That's not how you want to be playing leading up to a showdown with mighty Oregon, especially when the Ducks have been spotted an extra day of preparation (they last played on Black Friday in a glorified scrimmage against rival Oregon State). Take Oregon (8*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, but those came against three of football's worst teams in the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. While the Seahawks are reeling off back-to-back losses, they're still 6-5 on the season and I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle on Thursday night. Seattle ran into an incredibly difficult matchup last week, playing with a number of key contributors banged-up on a short week against the red hot 49ers. I do think the extra couple of days off will help the Seahawks here. Note that Dallas is a long-term 17-38 ATS when coming off five or six ATS wins in its last seven games, as is the case here. It is also 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 28 points or more and 14-28 ATS in its last 42 contests following a home victory by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a long-term 59-35 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 43-22 ATS in their last 65 games after scoring 17 points or less in back-to-back games. Regardless what has separated these two NFC foes over the years, the Seahawks have stayed competitive. You would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2011, to find the last time Dallas defeated Seattle by more than seven points. The underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in this series. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

With whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs' swirling following Monday's loss to the Eagles - their second defeat in their last three games - we'll confidently back Kansas City to rebound against the division rival Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs ran into an elite opponent on Monday and paid the price for their mistakes in a 21-17 defeat. Yes, Kansas City's offense has sputtered but I see this as a 'get right' spot against the Raiders on Sunday. The Chiefs should be happy to see the black and silver on the other side of the field as they've scored 40, 32, 35, 41, 48, 30 and 31 points in the last seven meetings in this series. Las Vegas has performed admirably for rookie head coach Antonio Pierce but I'm also not sure that they've taken any opponent's best punch. They're likely to get just that here as Kansas City aims to rebound. Note that the Raiders are a woeful 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Jaguars rarely beat the Texans. They did blow out an awful Houston team last January but that marked their only victory in the last 11 meetings in this series. Earlier this season, the Texans went into Jacksonville and pounded the Jags 37-17. I see little reason why this ascending Texans squad can't deliver another win on Sunday. Despite failing to cover the spread in last week's 21-16 win over the Cardinals, I came away impressed by Houston once again. The Texans were in a prime letdown spot in that contest, fresh off a big upset win over the Bengals in Cincinnati the week previous. If it weren't for them shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers deep in Cardinals territory that result would have been far more lopsided. Jacksonville predictably rebounded from an embarrassing 34-3 rout at the hands of the 49ers the week previous by shredding the reeling Titans last Sunday. Note that the Jags are a long-term 10-27 ATS when coming off a game in which they outgained the opposition by 150 or more total yards, as is the case here. Take Houston (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Steelers dropped a heart-breaker in Cleveland last week and proceeded to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada in a move that was a long-time coming in the eyes of most. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to take full advantage of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad that enters this game reeling off back-to-back losses. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati by most accounts. It started the campaign with consecutive losses (and went 0-3-1 ATS in its first four games) with Joe Burrow hobbled with a calf injury. There was a brief resurgence once Burrow got healthy but now he's out for the season, leaving undrafted backup QB Jake Browning to run the offense. That spells trouble against a ferocious Steelers defense that has proven it can win games all on its own this season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator but won't put too much on the offense in this particular game as it is well-positioned to win ugly. Notably, the Steelers have owned this series in Cincinnati over the years and even when they've fielded weaker teams, they've still managed to split the last four meetings in this stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

While many will consider this to be a big-time letdown spot for UCLA coming off last week's 'upset' win over rival USC, I don't necessarily see it that way. A little bit of the shine was taken off that win thanks to the Trojans recent swoon. While it was a much-needed victory for the Bruins given they entered riding a two-game losing streak, I don't expect it to knock them off course or cloud their focus entering Saturday's regular season finale against Cal. The Bears need a win to gain Bowl eligibility but given they've won just once in the last six meetings in this series - that coming when the Bruins were mired in a down year in 2019 - I don't think it's in the cards for them this season. The Bruins have all but stamped out opposing ground attacks this season, allowing a minuscule 2.2 yards per rush, and that's precisely the area Cal needs to excel at in order to find success. Note that the Bears have thrown for 300+ yards just twice this season and not since Week 4 in a 27-point rout at the hands of Washington. UCLA hasn't thrown for 300 or more yards at all this season but the Bruins figure to feast on the ground against a Cal defense that 125 or more rushing yards in five of its last six contests. Note that the Bears are a long-term loser at 32-40 ATS in their last 72 lined games following consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, UCLA checks in a profitable 60-47 ATS in its last 107 lined contests after losing two of its last three games ATS. Take UCLA (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I'm not a big believer in 'look-ahead' spots. That's the thinking behind some backing the underdog Yellow Jackets here with Georgia headed for an SEC Championship Game showdown with Alabama next week. I do think there's some merit in the 'letdown' angle, however, and that's precisely the situation Georgia Tech is in here after it gained Bowl eligibility with last week's win over hapless Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets can't stop the run - they've been torched for a ridiculous 160+ rushing yards in all but one of their 11 games this season and have given up 200+ on seven different occasions. There's reason to believe the top-ranked Bulldogs can get whatever they want offensively in this game while their defense is more than capable of taking care of the rest against a mistake-prone Yellow Jackets offense. Last year's meeting between these in-state rivals was closer than expected. I don't believe this one will be. Take Georgia (10*).

My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

It may be Senior Day but New Mexico finds itself in a massive letdown spot at home against Utah State on Friday. The Lobos put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a big upset win at Fresno State last week. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from dropping a 42-14 decision at Boise State and the last time we saw them play here at University Stadium they were wrecked 56-14 by UNLV. Utah State needs a victory here to become Bowl eligible and I think it's important not to knock the Aggies down too many notches after last week's blown opportunity in a 45-10 loss on the blue turf in Boise. Prior to that, Utah State had been playing some of its best football, reeling off consecutive wins at San Diego State and at home against Nevada. While it's been an up-and-down year to be sure, I've seen enough growth from this Utah State squad (since a 39-21 beatdown at Air Force in mid-September) to believe it's deserving of going Bowling. Take Utah State (8*).