My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We were talking about totals in the high-220's to open this series but will not surprisingly see the lowest posted total of the series so far in Sunday's seventh-and-deciding game. We already know what the Thunder are capable of offensively, particularly at home where they've gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts in two of three games in this series, scoring 120+ points on both of those occasions. The honus will be on the Pacers to contribute enough offensively to push this one 'over' the total and I'm confident they can. Game 6 served as somewhat of a breakthrough performance for Indiana offensively as it got off 92 field goal attempts - its highest volume of the series by far (its previous high was 85 in Game 3). While Game 7's often take on a defensive tone, I think this game ultimately amounts to the Thunder jumping ahead and forcing the Pacers to speed up in catch-up mode most of the way. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 of this series really had no business getting 'over' the total but thankfully a second half scoring explosion helped it along to cash our ticket. We'll go the other way in Game 6 on Thursday as the Pacers look to stave off elimination, perhaps without the services of star Tyrese Haliburton. If ever there were a spot for Indiana to make a game as ugly as possible, this would be it. We know they're capable of doing just that as we've seen it throughout the playoffs as they've employed a very physical brand of basketball. They can ill afford to allow the Thunder to get off 90+ field goal attempts again as they did in Game 5. Of note, the Pacers have held the Thunder to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games in this series. In fact, Indiana has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma City has been even better in that regard, limiting Indiana to less than 40 made field goals in four of five games in this series. Better yet, the Thunder have allowed 40 or fewer made field goals in 19 of their last 23 contests. You would have to go back eight games to find OKC allowing an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'under' cash in the last two games in this series but I think a change of scenery back to Oklahoma City will lead to a more up-tempo affair in Game 5 on Monday. Keep in mind, the Thunder got off a whopping 98 field goal attempts in their narrow Game 1 loss here at home. The next game in OKC went 'over' the total with the Thunder winning in lopsided fashion. We've seen the pace bog down a little bit over the last two games. The Pacers, for as much as they'd like to turn this into a slugfest, have only had mixed results in doing so in this series. Here, I think Indiana knows it is going to need to get loose offensively to have any chance at pushing OKC to the brink of elimination in Game 6. We haven't seen three straight Pacers games stay 'under' the total since March. Meanwhile, the Thunder haven't posted three straight 'under' results since the second round against Denver. Take the over (8*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 2 of this series managed to sneak 'over' the total thanks to an incredibly high-scoring second half. I expect a different story to unfold now that this series is tied up at one game apiece and the scene shifts to Indiana for Game 3 on Wednesday. I think both teams were probably content with the pace at which Game 2 was played. The Thunder and Pacers got off an identical 82 field goal attempts but the difference was Oklahoma City's exceptional shooting efficiency (it knocked down 40-of-82 FG attempts). Of note, the Pacers have now held three straight and 17 of their last 20 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Their physical brand of defense has translated to postseason success to be sure. The Thunder remain an elite defensive team and they showed it on Sunday, limiting the Pacers to 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held three straight and 17 of their last 20 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts while the Pacers have hoisted up 85 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven contests. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

In a game that projects to be somewhat lopsided in the hometown Thunder's favor, I expect to see them dictate the tempo and ultimately keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Yes, the Pacers have thrived offensively in these playoffs and they've done so against strong competition. However, there's no comparing the likes of Milwaukee, Cleveland and New York to Oklahoma City. The Thunder are a different team defensively. For the Pacers to contend in the early stages of this series, they're going to have to make things a little ugly and we have seen them thrive in physical environments in these playoffs. Indiana does have one thing going for it as it knows how to throw its weight around and I think this series-opener ultimately turns into a bit of a scrap. Note that the Thunder check in having held six of their last seven and 11 of their last 14 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Pacers allowed an opponent to get off 90+ field goal attempts. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and New York at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring affair in Game 4 on Tuesday, similar to what we witnessed in the series-opener (albeit helped along by overtime). We've yet to see consecutive games in this series go 'over' the total, however. I expect that trend to continue here as the Knicks face elimination at home on Thursday. Note that Indiana, while playing incredibly well offensively, has also been a force defensively, holding five of its last six opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 12 foes to 42 or fewer. Not only that, but the Pacers have done an excellent job of limiting the Knicks tempo, holding them to 84, 78 and 82 field goal attempts over the last three games. While New York comes off a terrible defensive effort in Game 4, we can anticipate it rising to the occasion back at home with its back against the wall in Game 5. On a positive note, the Knicks have held seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. They're capable of making this game a little 'uglier' in an effort to stave off elimination on Thursday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves exploded for 143 points in their Game 3 victory on Saturday as the Thunder were unable to match their desperation. I expect a much different type of game to unfold on Monday as Oklahoma City looks to tighten things up once again. The Thunder are an elite defensive team and I'm anticipating a positive response off that blowout loss on Saturday. Note that prior to that contest, the Thunder had limited eight straight 14 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the T'Wolves continue to play well defensively having held 17 consecutive opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of their last 15 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games in this series, Minnesota hasn't posted a three-game 'over' streak since March 28th to April 1st. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams have shot exceptionally well in this series so far. After Game 1 sailed 'over' the total, Game 2 was lower-scoring, achieving an 'under' result - just barely. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring contest on Friday. The Knicks got off 84 field goal attempts while the Pacers countered with 83. Game 3 of this series is obviously pivotal and I'm confident we'll see both sides tighten the screws defensively. Note that New York has now held five of its last six and 14 of its last 17 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. For its part, Indiana has allowed just two of its last 10 opponents to connect on more than 42 field goals. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Timberwolves have their backs against the wall after another poor defensive performance in Game 2 of this series to dig themselves an 0-2 hole. Returning home, we can expect Minnesota to tighten things up defensively, keeping in mind, Game 2 marked the first time in 13 games that it had allowed an opponent to connect on more than 41 field goals. On the flip side, I'm not sure the Timberwolves are going to find any quick solutions to break down this Thunder defense. Oklahoma City has held Minnesota to just 29 and 36 made field goals through the first two games of this series and has limited eight straight and 14 of its last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Expect a grind-it-out type of affair as the scene shifts to Minnesota on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Oklahoma City took it to a weary Denver squad in Game 7 on Sunday, connecting on 47-of-96 field goal attempts in a 125-93 rout. That marked the Thunder's second straight 'over' result but I expect that streak to be short-lived. Minnesota enters this series with a rest advantage having not played since May 14th. The Timberwolves have held 10 straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They've also done an excellent job of slowing the pace, limiting nine of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story for OKC. The Thunder have held six straight and 12 of their last 13 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. They held the Nuggets to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of the final six games of their conference semi-final series. Take the under (8*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 8 pm et on Friday.

We've seen consecutive high-scoring 'over' results in this series including the Celtics 127-102 home win to avoid elimination in Game 5 two nights ago. I expect a much different story to unfold in Game 6 on Friday, however, as the scene shifts back to Manhattan.

The Celtics certainly rose to the occasion on Wednesday, connecting on a blistering 44-of-84 field goal attempts in an eventual blowout victory. The pace certainly wasn't there for such a high-scoring result as the Knicks shot just 29-of-81 from the field. While New York figures to enforce the tempo back at home on Friday, it's worth noting that the Knicks have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 37 or less in four of the first five games in this series.

On the flip side, Game 5 ended a streak of nine straight games in which New York had held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. I'm willing to bet on the C's red hot shooting performance in game 5 on being an outlier that was supported by a predictable letdown from the Knicks with a 3-1 series lead.

Boston can't afford to let its guard down defensively the way it did in the most recent game played here at Madison Square Garden if it wants to extend this series back to Beantown for Game 7. Note that outside of that ugly defensive effort, the C's have been terrific at that end of the floor, limiting 12 of their last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Denver at 8:30 pm ET on Thursday.

This series has consistently trended toward low-scoring affairs, with each of the last three meetings staying under the posted total. That pattern is backed by strong recent defensive showings from both sides. Denver attempted a whopping 97 field goals in Game 5 but still managed just 105 points on 40 makes — a testament to the Thunder’s disciplined defensive approach. In fact, Oklahoma City has now held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, limiting offensive efficiency even when shot volume is high.

Denver, now facing elimination, is likely to respond with increased defensive intensity of its own. The Nuggets have done well limiting opportunities, holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That’s notable considering the Thunder offense has shown signs of slowing, making 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven outings.

With both teams digging in defensively and recent history on our side, this projects as another methodical, grind-it-out playoff battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Thunder 104, Nuggets 100.

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Golden State and Minnesota at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Game 4 of this series saw a jump in scoring with the Timberwolves edging the Warriors 117-110, the pace and shot volume simply haven't supported consistently high-scoring outcomes. In fact, Minnesota has seen a steady decline in field goal attempts over the last three games, attempting just 79 shots in Game 4 — their lowest of the series. The difference on Monday was their efficient 49.4% shooting clip, which isn’t something to bank on repeating.

Golden State, meanwhile, continues to struggle offensively without Steph Curry. The Warriors have connected on 37 or fewer field goals in each of the first four games in this series and in 13 of their last 15 games overall. That’s a striking indicator of a team lacking scoring consistency and efficiency.

Now facing elimination, Golden State will likely double down on its defensive effort in an attempt to grind out a win. Expect a more methodical, hard-nosed approach, especially early, as they try to take the Timberwolves out of rhythm. Keep in mind, the last time Minnesota allowed an opponent to make more than 40 field goals in a game was April 10th — a testament to their sustained defensive excellence.

With both teams struggling to generate high shot volume and one (Golden State) dealing with serious scoring limitations, this sets up as a lower-scoring, high-stakes defensive battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 101, Warriors 92.

My selection is on the under between Oklahoma City and Denver at 10 pm ET on Friday.

While the first two games of this series both eclipsed the total and both teams are in the midst of extended 'over' streaks—five straight for Denver and three for Oklahoma City—I believe the setup is ripe for a lower-scoring Game 3. With the series now shifting to Denver, the intensity figures to ramp up, and both teams have demonstrated strong underlying defensive metrics that should begin to surface.

Despite the recent scoring surges, the Thunder have now held 10 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals—an incredible level of consistency on the defensive end. Denver hasn't been far behind in that department, limiting eight of its last nine and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals.

Game 2 turned into a one-sided affair, which helped inflate the scoring. But with Friday’s contest expected to be more competitive, look for fewer transition opportunities and a heavier reliance on half-court sets, where both defenses thrive. That should keep the pace in check and suppress overall shot quality.

Take the under. Projected score: Thunder 114, Nuggets 109.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

After a long string of 'under' results in this series, the last two games have both cleared the number. That has led to considerable market reaction heading into Saturday’s Game 7 - perhaps not as you might think - with the lowest total of the series posted, and rightfully so in my opinion. Despite the recent 'over' results, pace and shot volume remain well within the bounds of an 'under'-friendly script.

The Clippers have attempted 88 or fewer field goals in every game this series, which speaks to the grind-it-out nature of this matchup. What has changed recently is efficiency — Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in back-to-back games, which is not something we should expect to continue on the road in a high-pressure Game 7. Denver, for its part, has quietly controlled tempo at home all season and is capable of imposing its defensive will in this spot.

On the other side, the Clippers have held Denver to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. Even when the Nuggets got to 90+ FGA in Game 1, they only made 41 shots. Yes, Denver has shot extremely well the last two contests, but that efficiency seems unsustainable against a Clippers defense that hasn’t allowed three straight opponents to knock down 44+ field goals all year. Each time it happened twice in a row, the next game failed to eclipse the total.

Given the series-long trend, the suppressed pace, and the expected tightening of defensive screws in a Game 7 environment, this one sets up nicely for a return to a low-scoring result. Expect both teams to show resistance early and take fewer risks offensively, leading to fewer transition opportunities and more half-court possessions.

Take the under. Projected score: Nuggets 101, Clippers 98.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday.

After consecutive high-scoring games, we're buying low on the total and expecting a regression in Game 6 as the series returns to a more defensive tone. Houston extended the series with a blowout win in Game 5, shooting a red-hot 55% from the floor (43-of-78). That marked the first time in the series the Rockets surpassed 40 made field goals — a number they had failed to reach in each of the first four games.

It's worth noting that Houston has been held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all five games. That’s a testament to Golden State’s ability to limit possessions and keep the Rockets in check outside of last game’s outlier performance. The Warriors, meanwhile, were forced into an inflated pace in Game 5, jacking up 103 shots — an unsustainable figure and one driven by a lopsided deficit and desperation.

Before that, Golden State had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in four straight games, and I expect a return to that type of defensive execution on Friday. This is another elimination game - one that figures to be more competitive than we saw two nights ago - and that often brings with it more deliberate play-calling and an increased emphasis on defense and half-court sets.

With both teams locking in on the defensive end and the pace slowing considerably, this projects as a tight, lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 96

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While we did cash with the 'over' in Game 4 on Sunday, I'm expecting a return to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out style in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. Sunday’s game saw a somewhat inflated scoreline thanks to a better shooting performance from Boston and a looser game script with the Celtics in control for much of the night, not to mention plenty of late scoring thanks the Magic's desperation fouling. Now, with the series 3-1 in favor of Boston and the potential of Orlando's elimination, I expect both teams to tighten things up defensively.

This has been a slow-paced series overall, with Orlando in particular dragging games into half-court battles. The Magic have held Boston to 39 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four games — an incredible feat considering the Celtics’ potent offense. That’s largely due to Orlando’s ability to limit possessions and force Boston into long, contested shots.

Boston’s defense also deserves credit. Outside of a couple of brief stretches, they’ve consistently bottled up the Magic's offense, and now back at home, I anticipate the Celtics emphasizing a defensive-first approach as they look to finish off the series. Note that even with the 'over' hitting in Game 4, the Celtics still held the Magic to just 34 made field goals (they've limited Orlando to 37 or fewer made field goals in all four games) — nothing explosive.

Orlando hasn’t topped 98 points in three of the four games in this series, only reaching 100 points in the other contest. Given the stakes, expect long possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and plenty of physical half-court play.

Take the under. Projected score: Celtics 102, Magic 91.

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Orlando at 7 pm et on Sunday.

While Game 3 saw both teams bogged down in a sluggish, low-scoring affair — combining for just 188 points — I’m expecting a bounce-back in scoring when the Celtics and Magic meet again for Game 4 on Sunday night.

Friday’s 95-93 Orlando win saw Boston limited to a season-low 74 field goal attempts, but it's important to note that Boston has historically responded well offensively after extended shooting slumps. The Celtics have now been held to 37 or fewer made field goals in four straight games, matching their longest drought of the season. The last time that happened, they exploded for 139 points against Brooklyn in mid-November. While I’m not projecting quite that type of eruption here against Orlando’s stout defense, it sets up nicely for Boston to find its rhythm and lift the scoring environment.

Orlando still faces heavy pressure trailing 2-1 in the series. In a similar spot in Game 2, we saw the Magic perform better offensively while chasing from behind, knocking down a series-high 39 field goals. If the Celtics take control again on Sunday, that could force Orlando to play a little faster and take more chances offensively, helping the 'over' cause.

It won’t take an out-of-control shootout to surpass this relatively modest number. With Boston likely to come out with more purpose offensively and Orlando capable of contributing enough, we should see a higher-scoring contest than we did on Friday.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Celtics 107, Magic 102.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

After the 'under' cashed in the first two games of this series, Game 3 brought a temporary break from the trend as both teams started hot and combined for 220 points. I’m expecting a return to a lower-scoring outcome in Sunday's pivotal Game 4, with both squads likely emphasizing defense and control.

Despite the Game 3 'over', the overall pace of the series remains sluggish. Los Angeles has taken 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight contests and seven of its last nine overall. This is a team that has played deliberately slow basketball down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs, preferring to work for quality shots rather than rushing possessions.

Defensively, the Lakers have been extremely effective at keeping opposing offenses in check. They've held 10 of their last 11 opponents — and an impressive 42 of their last 48 — to 44 or fewer made field goals. That speaks volumes about their ability to prevent teams from finding rhythm and easy looks.

The Timberwolves, meanwhile, hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in Friday’s Game 3, but even that was a bit of an outlier. They’ve had fewer than 90 attempts in seven of their last nine games. Their defense continues to be the cornerstone of their success, as they've limited five consecutive opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals.

With both teams bringing a defensive mindset and neither looking to push the pace, we should see a grind-it-out style of game and a return to the 'under' cashing once again on Sunday afternoon.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Timberwolves 102, Lakers 98.

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

While both teams boast plenty of offensive weapons, this series — and this matchup overall — continues to trend 'under.' We've now seen six straight meetings between the Rockets and Warriors stay below the total, including each of the first two games of this playoff series.

Golden State has made a concerted effort to control the tempo, limiting Houston to just 76 and 80 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2. That’s critical, as the Rockets thrive in a faster-paced game and haven’t been able to get into their offensive rhythm.

On the other side, the Warriors themselves have been mired in an offensive slump for weeks. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three straight games and 12 of their last 17 overall. Furthermore, Golden State hasn’t even topped 86 field goal attempts in a single game since April 8th — a span of six contests where they've recorded a 2-4 o/u mark.

With both teams struggling to find offensive flow and the Warriors imposing a slower pace, another 'under' looks likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 97.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The early series trend is undeniable — all six meetings between the Lakers and Timberwolves this season have stayed under the total, and there’s little reason to expect that to change as the series heads to Minnesota for Game 3. Despite totals continuing to slide lower, I still don't think the oddsmakers have fully accounted for the defensive intensity on display.

Minnesota's defense has been elite down the stretch, with the under cashing in seven of their last eight games. Even more impressively, they've held each of their last four opponents to 40 made field goals or fewer — a testament to their rim protection, switchability, and disciplined half-court execution.

The Lakers haven’t been shabby defensively either. They've limited four of their last five and eight of their last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The pace of this series has been slow, physical, and playoff-style through and through — and that suits both teams' recent defensive identities.

Expect another grind-it-out, half-court-heavy affair with limited transition buckets and long, contested possessions on both ends.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 102, Lakers 97.

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the over between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 9:30 pm ET on Thursday.

The total has dipped following back-to-back low-scoring games to open the series, creating value as we shift venues to Memphis for Game 3. Oklahoma City is playing with extreme offensive confidence right now, having made 45 or more field goals in five of its last six games. The Thunder's offensive pace remains relentless, taking 98 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests, including a staggering 104 attempts in their Game 2 win. Even with a strong defense, the Thunder allow their opponents plenty of opportunities—four straight opponents have reached 91 or more field goal attempts. That trend should continue here, especially with the Grizzlies returning home and likely to push tempo in a must-win spot.

While Memphis hasn’t cashed in offensively yet this series, they've generated volume—getting off 93 and 91 field goal attempts in the first two games. They simply haven’t converted at the level they were prior to the series when they made 40+ field goals in six straight games. That kind of regression is unlikely to last, especially back home where role players typically perform better. Overall, the Grizzlies have hoisted 90 or more field goal attempts in 27 of their last 32 games, a sign they’re doing enough offensively to contribute to a higher-scoring game when their shots begin to fall. With both teams continuing to play at a high tempo, expect this one to cruise over the posted number.

Take the over. Projected score: Thunder 123, Grizzlies 113.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the under between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

While both teams come in on two-game ‘over’ streaks, this matchup sets up well for a return to a lower-scoring affair. Atlanta has quietly shifted into a more controlled pace recently, holding six of its last seven opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts, with five of those held to 84 or fewer. That’s a key trend for a Hawks squad that has seen its defensive numbers skewed by red-hot shooting performances from its last four opponents, all of whom shot 50% or better from the field. Brooklyn, however, has been struggling to finish plays and shouldn't be expected to maintain the same efficiency as Atlanta’s recent opponents.

The Nets have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in 11 consecutive games, and while they did shoot well last time out, that came against a Pelicans team that hasn’t exactly been stout defensively. Brooklyn has also leaned into a slower tempo, holding five of its last six opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of its last 24 to fewer than 90.

These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 236 points, but that was a back-to-back spot for both, and each team got up 90 field goal attempts. That’s unlikely to be repeated here with both squads coming in rested and trending toward slower, more deliberate play.

This isn’t a spot where either team will need to push the pace for a full four quarters. Atlanta is a double-digit favorite, and a second-half slowdown is certainly in play if the game gets out of hand. With both teams quietly improving on the defensive end and limiting possessions, the setup points to a lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Hawks 117, Nets 106.

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and New Orleans at 8:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Milwaukee’s six-game ‘over’ streak is a bit deceptive. While it may look like the Bucks have been involved in track meets, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Saturday’s 121-115 overtime win in Miami was yet another example of a game inflating the scoreboard due to extra time, not tempo. Milwaukee has attempted fewer than 90 field goals in 14 consecutive games and has been held to 82 or fewer attempts in regulation in five straight.

That sort of pace generally doesn’t fuel high-scoring results unless both teams are exceptionally efficient—which is asking a lot on tired legs in a back-to-back situation. New Orleans, meanwhile, is coming off a two-game L.A. swing and returns home on short rest. Offensively, the Pelicans have struggled to generate consistent production, making just 43, 33, 38, 43, and 40 field goals over their last five games. They’ve also been grinding games to a halt defensively, limiting their last two opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts.

This sets up as a classic post-overtime ‘under’ spot with both teams in less-than-ideal scheduling situations. Expect a slower, more physical game than the market anticipates.

Take the under. Projected score: Bucks 108, Pelicans 105.

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The betting market hasn’t fully adjusted to the slower pace and improved defensive intensity in this matchup. The first three meetings between the Mavericks and Clippers this season have all stayed comfortably under the number, totaling 213, 210, and just 205 points in last night’s one-sided affair.

Dallas had been on an 'over' tear but has now seen back-to-back games stay under the total, largely due to a sharp dip in offensive efficiency and a declining volume of field goal attempts. The Mavs have hoisted 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games and now face a Clippers defense that held them to just 77 shot attempts on Friday night. In fact, L.A. has limited two of its last three opponents to 77 or fewer attempts from the field.

The Clippers themselves have also been operating at a slower pace offensively, getting off 82 or fewer shots in three of their last five games. While they shot efficiently last night (44-of-89), Dallas has held four of its last five opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals, suggesting a potential regression in shooting efficiency for L.A.

With both teams trending toward defensive-minded, grind-it-out basketball, and given the familiarity between them after three earlier low-scoring meetings, this total feels a touch too high once again.

Take the under. Projected score: Clippers 107, Mavericks 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Boston at 7:30 pm ET on Friday.

These teams just met last week, with Boston cruising to a 132-102 win. While that game soared 'over' the total, it was largely due to the Celtics' red-hot shooting rather than an elevated pace. Since that contest, Phoenix has dropped four straight games, all of which have gone 'over,' but I expect a different tempo in this rematch.

Boston is coming off a surprising home loss to Miami and will likely respond with a more disciplined defensive effort. The Celtics held the Heat to just 83 field goal attempts in that contest, but Miami was highly efficient, making 43 shots, which contributed to the 'over' cashing. However, if the pace remains slow, we may not see the same level of offensive efficiency from either team this time.

With the total creeping too high based on recent results, I'll look for a lower-scoring battle in Boston.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Celtics 114, Suns 105.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Both of these teams enter this matchup riding three-game 'over' streaks, but I expect that trend to reverse. The Timberwolves are coming off a hard-fought double-overtime win in Denver on Tuesday. Despite that extended contest, they still managed to hold the Nuggets to just 86 field goal attempts, highlighting their ability to dictate tempo with strong defense. Minnesota has limited two other opponents to just 79 and 68 field goal attempts since March 21st, showing a commitment to slowing the pace.

Brooklyn has been content to play at a methodical speed as well, with seven of its last eight opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the offensive end, the Nets have struggled to generate consistent production, connecting on 40 or fewer field goals in eight consecutive games. With both teams emphasizing defense and controlling possessions, I expect points to come at a premium.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Timberwolves 108, Nets 101.

NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Auburn at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take the contrarian approach and fade Michigan State’s recent 'under' trend in this Elite Eight showdown. While the Spartans have seen three straight games fall below the total, opposing offenses have still found success, recording at least 23 made field goals in each of their last five contests. Michigan State’s defense hasn’t necessarily locked teams down, and now they face an Auburn squad that ranks third in the country in offensive rating. The Tigers have been ramping up their tempo throughout the tournament, attempting 60, 64, and 71 field goals in their three March Madness victories. With both teams sitting around the national average in pace—Michigan State ranking 179th in adjusted tempo and Auburn at 133rd (per KenPom)—there should be enough possessions to push this game toward a higher-scoring result.

Auburn benefited from Michigan’s poor shooting in the Sweet 16, but it would be unwise to expect a similar defensive effort against Michigan State, which has been consistently efficient offensively. The Spartans have made 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, proving their ability to score regardless of the opponent. Given Auburn's willingness to push the pace and Michigan State's steady offensive production, this game has all the makings of a higher-scoring battle.

Take the over. Projected score: Auburn 81, Michigan State 76.

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and San Antonio at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring games, I anticipate a much different tempo in this matchup. The Celtics have been controlling the pace effectively, holding five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That level of defensive focus has contributed to their current seven-game winning streak and four-game ATS run. Boston’s ability to dictate tempo and limit transition opportunities will be key against a Spurs team that prefers to push the pace but lacks consistency on the offensive end.

San Antonio is coming off a chaotic 124-116 loss to Cleveland, a game in which they managed 106 shot attempts but still struggled to score efficiently. The Spurs have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in three consecutive contests, showing their offensive limitations despite the high volume of shots. The first meeting between these teams back in February resulted in just 219 total points, and with Boston’s defensive intensity ramping up, another relatively low-scoring affair seems likely.

Take the under. Projected score: Boston 113, San Antonio 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Houston at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'over' streak, while the Rockets saw their most recent contest go 'over' the total as well. However, I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Houston, much like we saw in the first meeting between these teams this season, which totaled just 196 points in Atlanta back in late January. While the Hawks have been impressive offensively during their current three-game winning streak, their defense has quietly been just as effective. They've held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and have done a solid job of disrupting opposing offenses, allowing 90 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have struggled mightily on the offensive end, making just 38, 39, and 39 field goals over their last three games. The silver lining for Houston has been its defensive consistency, as it has held six of its last eight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. With their offense in a slump, the Rockets have made a clear effort to slow the pace, allowing just 73 and 87 field goal attempts in their last two games. That slower tempo, combined with both teams’ recent defensive trends, points toward a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers anticipate.

Take the under. Projected score: Rockets 114, Hawks 109.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this contest in back-to-back situations, which could lead to a sluggish offensive performance on both ends. While Philadelphia has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, its defensive issues may not be as glaring in this matchup given New Orleans’ inconsistency on offense. The Pelicans just put up 130 points in a loss to Detroit, but they haven’t strung together consecutive high-scoring performances in quite some time.

New Orleans has been playing at a slower pace, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in seven of its last eight games while also limiting opponents to the same threshold in six straight contests. The 76ers have also held five of their last six opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. While the first meeting between these teams produced 238 total points, it was played at a faster pace than what we should expect in this one.

Take the under. Projected score: New Orleans 113, Philadelphia 108.

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 9 pm ET on Sunday.

This total is the highest we've seen in this matchup all season, which feels like an overcorrection given how these teams typically play against each other. Their highest previous posted total was 220.5, and that game ended with just 197 total points.

Both squads enter off hot shooting performances, but these are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Clippers may have hit 132 and 128 points in their last two games, but they attempted just 84 and 78 field goals, indicating a reliance on unsustainable efficiency. Meanwhile, they've limited four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, while the Thunder have held three straight foes to 37 or fewer.

With both teams likely to settle into a more defensive-minded battle, I expect this game to stay under the total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Clippers 110, Thunder 107.

Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and New York at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

All three previous meetings between these teams this season have gone 'over' the total, and I expect another high-scoring affair here. The Wizards were trounced 120-105 at home against the Magic last night in a predictable flat spot following a long seven-game road trip. That marked the first time in nine games that Washington didn't attempt at least 90 field goals. I look for them to push the pace far more in this triple-revenge spot against the Knicks.

Defensively, the Wizards have struggled, allowing their last four opponents to connect on 48, 42, 50, and 46 field goals. Meanwhile, the Knicks are coming off an 'upset' loss in Charlotte in which they scored just 98 points. They have yet to be held under 100 points in consecutive games this season, making this a prime bounce-back opportunity against a Wizards team they've already torched for 134, 136, and 126 points in their three previous matchups.

Take the over. Projected score: New York 126, Washington 113.

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Sacramento at 10 pm ET on Thursday.

Both teams are playing on no rest, coming off 'over' results last night. While the Bulls have been impressive offensively recently, they’ll be facing a Kings squad that has made a conscious effort to slow things down. Sacramento has held five of its last six opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts, indicating a deliberate pace and focus on defense. While the first meeting between these teams this season featured a high-scoring 243 total points, that game was played at a much faster tempo, which I don’t anticipate for tonight’s matchup.

With the Kings coming off a pair of high-scoring wins over the Grizzlies and Cavs, including an upset victory last night, they find themselves in a classic letdown spot. Chicago has the offensive firepower, but Sacramento's recent pace control and defensive efforts should keep this game tighter than expected.

Take the under. Projected score: Sacramento 112, Chicago 109.

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

These teams just met on Saturday in a high-scoring affair, with the Celtics edging out a 115-113 victory. That game flew 'over' the total, as did Brooklyn's next contest, an upset win over Atlanta on Sunday. However, I anticipate a much lower-scoring matchup this time around. While the pace wasn’t overwhelming in Saturday’s meeting, Boston shot exceptionally well, and it's unlikely we see the same level of efficiency here, especially with the Celtics returning home from a short road trip and potentially looking ahead to a long six-game western swing starting Friday.

Defensively, Boston has been dominant, holding six straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Even in the lone game where it allowed 43 makes, the Celtics still held Utah to just 108 points. Notably, Boston has posted consecutive 'over' results only once since February 10th, further reinforcing the likelihood of a slower, more defensive-minded battle. Expect a lower-scoring affair at TD Garden.

Take the under. Projected score: Boston 110, Brooklyn 98.

First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Francis (PA) and Alabama State at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

This ‘First Four’ matchup in Dayton may not be the most hyped game of the night, but that doesn't mean we won't see an up-tempo, high-scoring affair. While early betting action has favored the ‘under,’ we’ll go the other way and anticipate a defense-optional contest. St. Francis (PA) enters the tournament with the worst defensive rating of any team in the field, ranking 293rd nationally. Alabama State isn't far behind, sitting at 256th, making these two squads the two worst defensive teams in March Madness.

Offensively, neither team is elite, but Alabama State does like to push the pace, ranking 142nd in adjusted tempo. Early-season non-conference action saw both teams trend toward high-scoring games, and I expect a return to that style in this setting. With neither team boasting a reliable defense, open looks and easy baskets should come frequently, leading to a higher total than the market anticipates.

Take the over. Projected score: Alabama State 78, St. Francis (PA) 74.

My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Mavericks' defensive struggles have reached an extreme level, as they've allowed six consecutive opponents to make at least 49 field goals. That trend has resulted in the 'over' cashing in five of their last six games, and it’s difficult to see things changing against a capable Philadelphia offense. The Sixers haven’t been much better defensively, giving up 53, 44, and 44 field goals in their last three games. While Philadelphia was held in check in a slower-paced loss to Indiana on Friday, I expect a much different tempo here against a Mavericks squad that prefers to push the pace and thrives in shootouts.

The last time these teams met on February 4th, they combined for 234 points, and with both squads still struggling to contain their opponents, I anticipate another high-scoring affair. The Mavericks continue to rely on their offense to win games, and the 76ers should be more than willing to engage in an up-and-down contest. Given Dallas’ inability to get stops and Philadelphia’s need to keep up offensively, this total appears a bit low. Expect both teams to find success scoring the basketball in what should be a fast-paced, high-energy matchup.

Take the over. Projected score: Dallas 123, Philadelphia 118.

Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Indiana enters this contest on a five-game 'under' streak, but that trend is unlikely to continue given the way both teams play. The Pacers pushed the pace in Monday's loss to Chicago, firing off 101 field goal attempts but struggling with their shooting. That kind of volume is encouraging for an 'over' play, as the scoring will likely bounce back sooner rather than later. Indiana has consistently created plenty of opportunities, hoisting at least 90 shots in three straight games while showing little commitment to defense, allowing at least 94 opponent field goal attempts in four consecutive contests.

Milwaukee should also be in an aggressive mindset after dropping back-to-back games over the weekend. The Bucks had been giving up plenty of high-percentage looks before Sunday's loss to Cleveland, having allowed five straight opponents to hit 42+ field goals. That should work in Indiana’s favor, as the Pacers have shown they’re willing to push the tempo regardless of their recent shooting struggles.

With two uptempo teams and both squads eager to get back on track, expect a high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Milwaukee 127, Indiana 122.

Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Bradley and Drake at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

Despite both regular-season meetings between these teams staying 'under' the total, I expect a different outcome in this high-stakes MVC Championship matchup. With an even lower posted total for this contest, there's value in backing the 'over.' Bradley enters off a low-scoring semifinal win over Valparaiso, marking its fourth consecutive game that has either stayed 'under' or pushed. However, the Braves have the offensive capability to contribute their share of points, especially in a game that figures to be competitive until the final buzzer.

Drake has also seen its first two tournament games finish below the total, but it's worth noting that the first of those actually surpassed the number set for this game. Given the familiarity between these two rivals and the increased sense of urgency in a championship setting, I expect a more aggressive offensive approach from both teams. With efficient scoring, late free throws, and the possibility of an overtime thriller, the stage is set for this total to be eclipsed.

Take the over. Projected score: Bradley 68, Drake 65.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While both teams are coming off ‘over’ results, I expect this matchup to unfold differently. Utah’s defense has been highly suspect during its current three-game losing streak, but the Jazz may not be pushed to their limits offensively in this spot. Toronto has struggled to generate efficient offense, connecting on 43 or fewer field goals in 13 consecutive games and fewer than 40 in eight of its last 12 contests. The Raptors’ recent games have been dictated by a slower pace, as they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. That’s a key factor here against a Jazz team that just put up 122 points in Washington thanks to volume shooting, hoisting 101 attempts.

Toronto is coming off consecutive upset wins in Orlando and should enter this home matchup with confidence. The Raptors’ improved defensive effort in recent games should make scoring difficult for the Jazz, especially if Utah fails to manufacture extra possessions at the same rate as it did against Washington. Look for a lower-scoring affair than expected in this one.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Toronto 110, Utah 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Both teams are coming off 'over' results, but I expect a much different outcome in this matchup. Detroit has been playing strong defense recently, limiting three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts, and holding four of its last five foes to 37 or fewer made field goals. With the Pistons being well-rested, they should bring a defensive intensity that disrupts Los Angeles' offensive flow, particularly after the Clippers played the night before in Phoenix. The Pistons' defense could make scoring difficult for Los Angeles, which has struggled with offensive efficiency lately.

The Clippers have been inconsistent on offense, failing to surpass 40 made field goals in five of their last eight games, and only topping out at 44 once during that stretch. On the other end, Los Angeles has shown its own defensive prowess, holding three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts. With both teams likely to emphasize defense, this game should play out at a slower pace with fewer scoring opportunities.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Detroit 102, Los Angeles 97.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Portland and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams are coming off 'over' results, with Portland cashing three straight, but the numbers suggest a lower-scoring contest here. The Blazers' game in Cleveland yesterday included overtime, yet both teams still only made 42 field goals each. Portland has quietly tightened up defensively, holding five of its last six opponents under 40 made field goals in regulation.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, snapped a long losing streak with an 'upset' win over Golden State on Saturday, thanks to an uncharacteristically hot shooting night. That type of offensive explosion has been rare for the 76ers, who have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Expect this matchup to settle into a slower-paced, defensive-oriented affair.

Take the under. Projected score: 76ers 108 Trail Blazers 102.

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the over between the Clippers and Lakers at 9:30 pm ET on Sunday.

These teams just faced off on Friday in a defensive battle that ended in a 106-102 Lakers victory. However, I expect a faster pace and higher-scoring affair in this rematch.

The Lakers have now gone under the total in six consecutive games, matching their longest such streak of the season. That trend has likely caused oddsmakers to set the total a bit too low for Sunday’s contest. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been alternating between over and under results, having not played consecutive under games since mid-January. Given the offensive firepower on both sides, I expect this one to break the recent under trend.

Take the over. Projected score: Clippers 118, Lakers 113.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams enter this matchup riding 'under' streaks, the recent pace of play and defensive vulnerabilities point toward a higher-scoring affair. Milwaukee has seen back-to-back 'under' results, but those games weren’t due to a lack of opportunities—its opponents attempted 91 and 105 field goals, exposing some defensive weaknesses. On the offensive side, the Bucks found a rhythm in their recent win over Denver, putting up 90 field goal attempts, their most in seven games.

Dallas has cashed four straight 'under' tickets, but that has more to do with poor shooting efficiency than a lack of possessions. The Mavericks have attempted 98 and 97 field goals in their last two games, keeping the pace high. More importantly, their defense has been shaky, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to get off more than 90 shot attempts. If Milwaukee continues to push the tempo and Dallas struggles defensively, this total should be in play for an 'over.'

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Milwaukee 122, Dallas 118.

My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Milwaukee at 8 pm ET on Thursday.

While this matchup features two high-powered offensive teams, I expect a slower-paced, defensive battle to unfold. Denver has been locking in on the defensive end, holding 10 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been deliberate offensively, taking 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six consecutive games.

Defensively, the Bucks have been as strong as any team in the league lately, limiting six straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. Denver is coming off an extremely efficient shooting night, hitting 53-of-94 attempts in a win over Indiana on Monday, but some regression should be expected against a locked-in Milwaukee defense.

Look for a lower-scoring game than most anticipate.

Take the under. Projected score: Milwaukee 117, Denver 112.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the over between Sacramento and Utah at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams are coming off 'under' results, but I expect a different outcome in this matchup. The Kings took advantage of a struggling Hornets squad two nights ago, holding them to just 30 made field goals in a blowout win. However, prior to that game, Sacramento had allowed at least 43 made field goals in 9 of its previous 10 and 12 of its last 14 contests.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are fresh off a poor shooting performance against Portland on Monday, but they've attempted 90 or more field goals in three straight games. They’ll have their chances to bounce back offensively here. On the defensive side, Utah has been highly permissive, allowing six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals.

Sacramento has been efficient offensively, making 40+ field goals in six straight games and 25 of its last 26. This game has all the makings of a high-paced, high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Kings 128, Jazz 122.

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

I expect a high-scoring contest in Los Angeles as Luka Doncic faces his former team for the first time. Dallas has seen consecutive 'under' results, largely due to offensive struggles, but its defensive issues remain. The Mavericks have allowed six straight and 11 of their last 13 opponents to put up more than 90 field goal attempts, which should set up well for an up-tempo game.

The Lakers are positioned to take advantage, having knocked down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six and seven of their last 10 games. However, Los Angeles has also seen three straight games go 'under,' which suggests a correction could be coming. Both teams should be motivated to push the pace, leading to a faster tempo and more scoring opportunities.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Los Angeles 122, Dallas 117.

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Tuesday.

These teams met on this floor just two nights ago in a relatively low-scoring 114-96 Pelicans win, but I expect a much faster pace in the rematch. San Antonio has now seen four straight games stay 'under' the total, but that trend isn’t sustainable given how many shot attempts they are allowing. The Spurs have given up 90+ field goal attempts in four of their last five contests while playing poor defense in the absence of Wembanyama.

The Pelicans have also struggled defensively, allowing 90+ field goal attempts in 14 of their last 19 games. While their last two contests have gone 'under,' they have been involved in several high-scoring affairs recently. With both teams capable of pushing the tempo, I expect this matchup to play out at a much faster pace than Sunday's meeting.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: New Orleans 127, San Antonio 121.

My selection is on the under between Charlotte and Sacramento at 10 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this matchup off back-to-back 'over' results, but I anticipate a shift in that trend. Charlotte is coming off an embarrassing 141-88 loss in Portland on Saturday, where its defense collapsed while the offense remained stagnant. The Hornets have struggled mightily to generate consistent scoring, having made fewer than 40 field goals in seven of their last nine contests.

This should serve as a ‘get right’ spot for Sacramento’s defense, which has struggled recently but now faces an opponent that has consistently failed to score efficiently. Additionally, when the Kings have been installed as double-digit favorites this season, the 'under' has hit in five of six instances. Given Charlotte's offensive struggles and Sacramento's expected defensive improvement, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair than the market suggests.

Take the under. Projected score: Kings 118, Hornets 100.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bucks have embraced a more methodical approach in recent games, resulting in three straight victories and three consecutive 'under' cashes. They've attempted 82 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games, converting on fewer than 40 of those in all four contests. That trend aligns with a defensive emphasis that has seen Milwaukee hold each of its last four opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals.

Miami figures to present another tough defensive challenge. The Heat have limited four of their last six opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they managed an efficient 46 field goals in Friday’s 120-111 win over Toronto, that came against a far weaker defensive opponent than the Bucks. Prior to that, Miami had been held to under 40 field goals in four straight games.

These two teams last met on January 23rd in a game that was played at a faster pace than expected yet still finished with just 221 total points. Given both teams' recent trends and defensive focus, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Milwaukee 108, Miami 104.

Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Penn at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Dartmouth comes in on a three-game 'under' streak, but I expect that trend to reverse here. While the Big Green have managed to keep recent opponents in check offensively, they’ve also allowed eight straight teams to hoist more than 60 field goal attempts. That suggests their recent 'under' run has been more about poor shooting from opponents than a true defensive lockdown.

Penn, meanwhile, is struggling through a five-game losing streak and will likely come out with urgency. The Quakers have been poor defensively, allowing 11 of their last 12 opponents to knock down 27 or more field goals, with six of those foes reaching the 30-field goal mark.

The first meeting between these teams totaled 143 points, and we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around. Given the expected pace and defensive struggles on Penn’s side, I believe that number is justified.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn 81, Dartmouth 76.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Utah at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

Both teams enter this game on 'over' streaks, but I see value in a contrarian play on the 'under.' The Clippers have cashed 'over' tickets in back-to-back games, including a 130-110 blowout win over these same Jazz on Saturday. However, Los Angeles was scorching hot from the field in that matchup, a performance unlikely to repeat. Additionally, the Clippers typically slow the pace in back-to-back situations, as they are tonight following last night’s 128-114 victory over Memphis. Prior to that, L.A. had gone five straight games attempting fewer than 90 field goals. Defensively, the Clippers have held seven of their last nine opponents below 90 shot attempts.

Utah, meanwhile, is also coming off a strong shooting night in an upset win over the Lakers. But despite their scoring output, the Jazz have only attempted 83, 84, and 86 field goals in their last three contests. Their offense is still inconsistent, and they could struggle against a Clippers team that can control tempo when necessary.

With both teams on the second night of a back-to-back and some shooting regression likely, I expect a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Take the under. Projected score: Clippers 112, Jazz 106.

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Thursday.

These two teams played to an 'under' result in last night’s matchup, but I expect a much different outcome in this rematch. Sacramento’s defense has been suspect lately, allowing four straight and six of its last seven opponents to attempt 90 or more field goals. In their last three games, their opponents have connected on 43, 49, and 44 field goals, with two of those games coming against these same Pelicans.

New Orleans has shown similar defensive vulnerabilities, allowing four of its last five opponents to get up more than 90 field goal attempts. In fact, you have to go back 18 games to find the last time the Pelicans held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the offensive end, the Pelicans have been productive, knocking down 43 or more field goals in three of their last four and five of their last seven contests.

With both teams playing in a back-to-back situation and recent trends favoring high possession counts, I expect a faster-paced, higher-scoring affair this time around.

Take the over. Projected score: Sacramento 124, New Orleans 118.

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:40 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest on two-game 'under' streaks, but I expect a shift toward a higher-scoring affair. The Suns are coming off their second straight loss, falling 119-112 at home to the Grizzlies last night. A big reason for Phoenix’s struggles has been its porous defense, allowing four consecutive opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals. The Suns have also given up 40 or more made field goals in 16 of their last 18 games, with their last four foes connecting on 52, 48, 45, and 43 shots from the field.

That defensive vulnerability sets up a prime bounce-back spot for a rested and favored Houston squad. The Rockets struggled offensively in a sluggish 94-87 matinee victory over Toronto on Sunday, shooting just 31-for-86 from the field. However, they showed their ability to push the pace in their previous outing, hoisting up 100 shot attempts against the Mavericks. Two of Houston’s last three opponents have attempted 90 or more field goals, paving the way for an up-tempo battle on Wednesday.

Take the over. Projected score: Houston 118, Phoenix 114.

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll call for a high-scoring affair as the Pacers look to bounce back from a shocking blowout loss in Portland, while the Clippers aim to avoid a third straight defeat after falling to the rival Lakers on Tuesday.

Despite the 'under' cashing in Indiana's last two games, the Pacers continue to push the tempo, allowing four straight and eight of their last nine opponents to attempt at least 89 field goals. They've also surrendered 40+ made field goals in three of their last four contests.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled defensively, allowing four consecutive opponents to hit 42 or more shots from the field. Indiana’s offense should benefit in this spot after seeing its streak of six straight games making 43+ field goals halted against Portland in a tough back-to-back situation.

Expect plenty of scoring in this non-conference matchup.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Indiana 121, Los Angeles 118.

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Chicago's offense sputtered in a blowout loss to Boston two nights ago, resulting in an 'under' outcome. However, that game was an outlier in terms of pace and shot volume, as the Bulls have typically allowed opponents to push the tempo and get plenty of field goal attempts up. In four of their last five contests and 15 of their last 17 overall, Chicago has given up at least 92 shot attempts, which bodes well for a high-scoring affair in this matchup.

Toronto, meanwhile, is playing its best basketball of the season, having won five straight and seven of its last eight. The Raptors' offensive efficiency has been impressive during this stretch, recording 42 or more made field goals in four straight and six of their last seven games. With both teams capable of pushing the pace and Toronto firing on all cylinders offensively, we should see plenty of scoring in this showdown.

Take the over. Projected score: Toronto 125, Chicago 118.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams come into this game off higher-scoring results on Saturday, but I expect the script to shift as they meet in Boston. This is the second and final regular season meeting between these teams, with the first matchup on January 3rd producing just 195 total points in a Celtics blowout victory in Houston. Notably, Boston shot exceptionally well in that game, hitting 39-of-77 from the field, a performance that may not repeat itself here.

The Rockets have regained their defensive edge recently, holding three of their last four opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Similarly, Boston has held opponents to 42 or fewer field goals in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Celtics have topped out at 44 made field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston's offensive output has also dipped lately, as the Rockets have made just 37, 40, and 45 field goals over their last three contests after a stretch where they knocked down 48, 49, and 49.

Expect a slower pace and a focus on defense in this clash.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Boston 110, Houston 103.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While the 'over' has cashed in each of Utah's last five games, the Jazz have struggled offensively, connecting on 43 or fewer field goals in nine straight contests. This trend suggests they may not be able to keep up with a high-scoring game, even if the total seems inflated.

Memphis is coming off a high-scoring game at home against the Pelicans last night, and with a back-to-back situation here, I’m skeptical that the Grizzlies will push the pace as aggressively in this game. Memphis has been much more effective defensively lately, holding five of its last six opponents—and seven of its last nine—to 41 or fewer made field goals.

Given these factors, I think the total is too high for a game where both teams may have difficulty generating efficient offense.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Grizzlies 120, Jazz 111.

My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm ET on Friday.

Both the Pelicans and Grizzlies enter this matchup in strong form, with New Orleans riding a four-game winning streak and Memphis claiming victories in four straight contests. While the Pelicans have seen their last three games eclipse the total, I believe the defensive intensity on both sides will dictate the pace in this one, leading to a lower-scoring outcome.

The Grizzlies have been particularly dominant on the defensive end, holding five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've also done an excellent job of limiting possessions, allowing only one of their last six opponents to reach 90 field goal attempts.

The Pelicans have also shown defensive mettle, holding three consecutive opponents and six of their last nine foes to 43 or fewer made field goals despite facing high-volume offenses. This combination of defensive prowess should keep scoring in check and prevent this game from reaching the lofty total set by oddsmakers.

Take the under. Projected score: Memphis 120, New Orleans 113.

My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Orlando at 6 pm ET on Sunday.

Both teams enter this game following consecutive 'over' results, but the setup suggests a return to a lower-scoring contest. Denver's offensive explosion on Friday—hitting 50-of-92 field goal attempts—feels like an outlier rather than the norm. Just one game prior, the Nuggets managed only 40 made field goals in a home loss to Houston, highlighting their potential for offensive variance.

Meanwhile, Orlando has been a defensive force, holding 11 of its last 12 opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. That level of defensive intensity should help limit Denver's offensive opportunities. The Magic's struggles on offense are well-documented, with the team failing to record 40 made field goals in 13 straight games, a trend that isn't likely to change against a solid Nuggets defense.

The slower pace and emphasis on defense from both teams, coupled with Orlando's offensive inefficiency, set the stage for a low-scoring affair on Sunday.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Denver 108, Orlando 104.

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and San Antonio at 9:40 pm ET on Friday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances and have trended toward the 'over' in recent games, I anticipate a shift in pace and defensive intensity in this rematch. Memphis, despite its recent stretch of 'over' results, has shown defensive consistency by holding four of its last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. That defensive capability will likely come into play here.

Additionally, San Antonio, which has struggled defensively in stretches, is capable of tightening up. The Spurs had held nine of their previous 11 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals before Wednesday’s game. That poor showing defensively likely serves as a wake-up call as they aim to limit Memphis’ shooting efficiency, which was an unsustainable 51-for-103 in the last meeting.

Expect both teams to make adjustments and this game to trend lower-scoring compared to their recent clash.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Memphis 115, San Antonio 106.

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Denver at 9:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

While the Nuggets have seen three straight 'under' results, the context points to a higher-scoring game in this matchup. Last night’s 118-106 loss to Boston came without Nikola Jokic, but even if Jokic remains sidelined, Denver’s offense has shown resilience. The Nuggets have hit the 40-field goal mark in seven straight games and an astonishing 22 of their last 23 contests, demonstrating their offensive efficiency regardless of personnel.

Defensively, Denver has been porous, allowing eight consecutive opponents to make 40 or more field goals and 11 of their last 12 to do the same. This trend opens the door for a productive offensive showing from the Clippers, who have seen four of their last five opponents knock down at least 40 shots. Furthermore, six of L.A.'s last eight opponents have attempted at least 88 field goals, signaling a willingness to engage in an up-tempo style.

The combination of Denver’s offensive consistency, their recent defensive struggles, and the Clippers’ pace-friendly tendencies should result in a game that surpasses the posted total. Expect both teams to exploit defensive weaknesses in a back-and-forth affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Denver 120, Los Angeles 116.

Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Indiana at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest having leaned toward lower-scoring games in recent outings, but the underlying dynamics point to a high-tempo, high-scoring affair. Chicago is coming off an 'under' result in an impressive 'upset' win over San Antonio on Monday. However, the Bulls have struggled defensively, allowing six consecutive opponents to convert on more than 40 field goals and three straight to make 44 or more. Adding to the defensive woes, Chicago has allowed 95+ field goal attempts in five straight games, signaling an inability—or unwillingness—to slow the pace.

Indiana has also recorded consecutive 'under' results, including a 113-99 victory over Brooklyn on Monday. Despite this, the Pacers' recent games have featured plenty of opportunities for opposing offenses. Five of Indiana’s last seven opponents have attempted at least 92 field goals, and six of those opponents have successfully converted more than 40 shots.

With both teams trending toward faster paces and allowing high shooting volumes, this matchup sets up as a potential track meet. Chicago's defensive struggles and Indiana's openness to high-volume games create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair. Look for both offenses to capitalize on the lack of defensive resistance.

Take the over. Projected score: Indiana 127, Chicago 120.

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Oklahoma City at 8 pm ET on Friday.

The Thunder have earned a reputation for their strong defense, but this matchup sets up as a high-scoring affair. The Knicks are in the midst of an offensive hot streak, having connected on 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. Their lone recent 'under' came against Utah on Wednesday, but that result was more a reflection of the Jazz’s offensive struggles than anything New York did defensively. Facing an Oklahoma City team that thrives offensively, the Knicks are likely to find themselves in a shootout.

Oklahoma City enters this game having made at least 42 field goals in six straight contests, showcasing their offensive consistency. Even in the second leg of a back-to-back, the Thunder’s dynamic offense should be up to the challenge against a Knicks team that has allowed its last three opponents to attempt 99, 92, and 96 shots, respectively. With such high shot volumes on both sides, opportunities to score will be plentiful, especially with both offenses firing on all cylinders.

Expect a fast-paced game where both teams trade baskets, pushing the total comfortably over the posted number.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Thunder 120, Knicks 116.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Antonio at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs that resulted in 'over' outcomes, I anticipate a slower-paced and lower-scoring game in this matchup. The Spurs have been allowing a significant volume of field goal attempts recently, with seven straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents hoisting up 90 or more shots. However, the Clippers are unlikely to engage in a high-tempo game, having attempted 86 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven and eight of their last 10 games.

Defensively, Los Angeles has been consistent, holding each of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. That trend, coupled with the Spurs' lack of efficiency against structured defensive teams, suggests a game that will stay well below the posted total.

Take the under. Projected score: Los Angeles 108, San Antonio 103.

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Charlotte at 7:10 pm ET on Monday.

While their previous meeting resulted in a low-scoring contest, the underlying pace suggests potential for a much different outcome this time around. Both teams launched 93 or more field goal attempts in that game, but poor shooting suppressed the total. Expect a regression to the mean in shooting efficiency here.

Chicago's offense has been rolling, registering 53 and 45 made field goals in its last two games. However, its defense has struggled to keep opponents in check, surrendering 40 or more made field goals in 9 of its last 13 contests. Furthermore, the Bulls have allowed opponents to hoist 92 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 outings, indicative of high-pace games.

Charlotte is coming off a dismal shooting effort against Oklahoma City, a top-tier defensive unit. The Hornets, however, will welcome a less stringent Chicago defense. Note that Charlotte has allowed eight of its last 10 opponents to exceed 40 made field goals. These trends align with the likelihood of a higher-scoring game than expected.

Take the over. Projected score: Chicago 118, Charlotte 114.

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

These two teams recently met in a surprisingly high-scoring affair, with the Magic pulling out a 121-114 victory on December 21st. However, I anticipate a much different outcome in this rematch, with a slower pace and stronger defensive play dictating the flow of the game.

Miami has excelled defensively of late, holding three straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of their last nine foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. On offense, the Heat have struggled to find rhythm, managing more than 41 made field goals only once in their last six games and being limited to exactly 36 in three straight contests.

Orlando has also leaned on its defense, holding four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Magic have been kept to 41 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 10 games, contributing to their consistent 'under' trends.

While the previous matchup saw an unusually high shooting percentage from both teams, I expect this rematch to be far more subdued, especially with both squads well-rested and emphasizing defense.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Orlando 101, Miami 96.

My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Friday.

While both previous December meetings between these teams went 'over' the total, the underlying pace and shooting efficiency suggest a potential shift here. When they met on Monday in Charlotte, Philadelphia attempted 80 field goals to Charlotte's 83, with both teams shooting exceptionally well. Such hot shooting is unlikely to be sustained in this rematch.

Charlotte is in a challenging back-to-back situation after a loss in Washington last night, which could result in tired legs and diminished offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been idle since Monday, allowing them to refocus defensively after back-to-back subpar efforts. The 76ers are capable of clamping down, as evidenced by the fact that they've been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in five of their last six games.

On the other side, Charlotte's defense has shown some consistency, holding 11 straight and 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Both teams are well-suited to delivering a slower-paced, more defensive-oriented contest compared to their prior meetings this month.

Take the under. Projected score: Philadelphia 104, Charlotte 97.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Monday.

This matchup features two teams trending toward lower-scoring outcomes, and I anticipate more of the same here. While their December 3rd meeting resulted in an 'over,' it required a late surge in scoring to get there—something unlikely to repeat in this rematch.

The 76ers' offense has been consistently limited, failing to reach 44 made field goals in any of their 23 games this season. While Philadelphia gave up 47 field goals in their most recent outing against Indiana, that was an exception. Over the last 12 games, the Sixers have held 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals, showcasing their defensive strength.

Charlotte has struggled offensively, making 40 or fewer field goals in nine consecutive games. Despite their offensive woes, the Hornets have remained competitive defensively, holding 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer field goals.

With both teams leaning on defense and showing significant limitations on offense, especially in terms of efficiency, this contest is likely to grind its way to a lower total than their previous meeting.

Take the under. Projected score: Philadelphia 106, Charlotte 98.

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:40 pm ET on Monday.

While the Knicks have seen their last three games go 'over' the total, those results were fueled more by efficient shooting than pace. New York has managed just 85, 76, and 79 field goal attempts in those contests, suggesting they haven't been pushing the tempo. On the defensive end, the Knicks have been steady, holding four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals.

Toronto, meanwhile, has been solid defensively, allowing fewer than 40 made field goals in three of its last four and five of its last seven games. The Raptors' ability to force tough shots should help keep the scoring in check against a Knicks squad that has relied heavily on shooting efficiency to reach higher totals.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: New York 110, Toronto 106.

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and San Antonio at 8 pm ET on Thursday.

Both teams enter this matchup off 'under' results, but the style of play and recent trends suggest a high-scoring affair in San Antonio. The Bulls have been a model of offensive consistency, making at least 46 field goals in six consecutive games and 43 or more in 12 of their last 14 outings. Defensively, Chicago has struggled to limit possessions, allowing six straight opponents and 11 of their last 12 to attempt 90 or more shots from the field.

San Antonio presents a similar profile on defense, having surrendered 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests. On offense, the Spurs are in a prime bounce-back position after a disappointing 35-of-100 shooting performance on Tuesday in Phoenix. Playing at home should help them find their rhythm in what projects to be a more wide-open contest.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Chicago 126, San Antonio 119.

My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and New York at 7:40 pm ET on Thursday.

Charlotte's offensive struggles have been a glaring issue during its six-game losing streak, with the team failing to make more than 37 field goals in any of its last five contests. The Hornets' defense has been a bright spot, though, limiting five straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals while restricting four consecutive teams to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. That includes a narrow 99-98 loss to these same Knicks just last week, a game that highlighted their ability to slow the pace and keep scoring opportunities to a minimum.

New York has been equally sharp defensively, holding three consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks have also been deliberate offensively, attempting 86 or fewer field goals in three of their last four outings. With both teams leaning on defense and the pace likely to mirror their low-scoring meeting from last week, the conditions are ripe for another 'under' result.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: New York 103, Charlotte 98.

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Minnesota's offensive struggles have been evident, as the Timberwolves have managed just 74, 75, and 81 field goal attempts in their last three games. Their scoring output has been equally underwhelming, with the team being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests, including 37 or fewer in four of those games.

The Clippers, while inconsistent offensively, have made up for it with strong defensive pacing. They've held 10 consecutive opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and limited all but two of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. With both teams emphasizing defensive control, this game shapes up as a low-scoring affair.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Los Angeles 105, Minnesota 98.

My selection is on the 'over' between Oregon and USC at 10:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

USC has been struggling recently, dropping back-to-back games straight up and failing to cover the spread in seven consecutive contests. Despite their issues, the Trojans are likely to have plenty of scoring opportunities on Wednesday as Oregon's defense has been allowing opponents to get off 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games.

Meanwhile, the Ducks' offense has been firing on all cylinders, making good on 25 or more field goals in all eight games this season, contributing to their perfect 8-0 start. USC's defensive struggles have been apparent, as they’ve allowed six straight opponents to connect on 25 or more field goals, with three of those teams surpassing 30 makes.

With Oregon’s high-octane offense and USC’s defensive vulnerabilities, this game sets up as a high-scoring affair.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Oregon 84, USC 79.

My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Orlando may have had a defensive lapse last night in New York, but the Magic remain one of the league's premier defensive teams. They've held an astounding 19 consecutive opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and have limited 13 of their last 16 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. Their commitment to slowing the pace should be on full display in this matchup.

Philadelphia's offensive struggles have been a consistent theme this season, as the 76ers have connected on 42 or fewer field goals in all but one game. Their defense, however, has improved significantly, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. Additionally, only one of their last nine opponents has surpassed 88 field goal attempts, reflecting their ability to dictate a slower pace.

Expect a methodical and low-scoring affair in this one.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Orlando 103, Philadelphia 97.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Indiana has been one of the most offense-oriented teams in the league, often turning games into high-scoring affairs, regardless of their opponents. The Pacers are fresh off a 122-111 loss in Toronto last night, marking their third straight defeat. Their defense has been consistently porous, allowing five consecutive opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. Offensively, while Indiana fell short of its usual production last night, snapping a streak of 10 straight games with over 40 made field goals, the Pacers are primed for a bounce-back effort.

Brooklyn’s offensive struggles have been evident, but this matchup with Indiana provides a perfect opportunity for the Nets to find their rhythm. The Pacers' up-tempo style and defensive lapses should enable Brooklyn to put up points, especially considering the Nets have given up 40 or more made field goals in four of their last five contests.

This matchup sets up as a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Indiana 125, Brooklyn 119.

My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7:10 pm ET on Tuesday.

While the 'under' has hit in each of Charlotte's last four contests, the setup for this matchup points toward a higher-scoring affair. The Hornets have been pushing the pace, attempting 93 or more field goals in four of their last six games, showcasing their willingness to play an up-tempo style. Philadelphia, meanwhile, allowed Detroit to get up 91 shot attempts in its last outing, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities in transition.

Offensively, the 76ers have been finding their groove, surpassing 40 made field goals in three of their last four games. Both teams are coming into this game off extended rest, having last played on Saturday, which should contribute to fresh legs and plenty of energy on the court. Look for a high-possession game where both offenses take advantage of the open looks they'll inevitably create.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Philadelphia 118, Charlotte 112.

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Detroit at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Bucks are firing on all cylinders offensively, recording 43 or more made field goals in four of their last five games. That level of efficiency should continue against a struggling Pistons defense that has allowed seven consecutive opponents to surpass the 40 field goal mark. Milwaukee's fast-paced style and scoring depth make it a tough matchup for Detroit to slow down.

While Detroit has been inconsistent offensively, it catches a break facing a Milwaukee defense that has allowed 40 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight outings. This sets up a favorable scenario for the Pistons to contribute their fair share of scoring, particularly on their home floor.

With both teams showcasing defensive vulnerabilities and Milwaukee's offense in a rhythm, this game projects as a high-scoring affair.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Milwaukee 123, Detroit 110.

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 8 pm ET on Monday.

The Lakers and Timberwolves have both been involved in recent low-scoring affairs, but those results have helped set an artificially low total for this matchup. The Lakers are coming off a narrow 105-104 win in Utah last night, extending their streak of five straight 'under' results. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves' 93-92 victory over the Clippers on Friday was one of the lowest-scoring games of the season for Minnesota.

Historically, these teams tend to produce higher-scoring games following a low-scoring affair. In fact, we haven't seen consecutive matchups stay 'under' the total in the last eight meetings (their earlier matchup this season went 'under'). With the Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back and Minnesota playing for the first time in three days, expect the pace to increase, creating ample scoring opportunities.

The Lakers' offense has struggled for consistency, but against a Timberwolves defense that can lapse at times, I expect them to put up points. Similarly, Minnesota’s well-rested lineup should find success exploiting the Lakers' defensive fatigue.

Projected score: Minnesota 117, Los Angeles 114.

My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

While Charlotte's last game went 'over' the total (its third straight 'over' result), this contest sets up for a slower-paced, lower-scoring affair. The Hornets have struggled offensively, ranking tied for 24th in the league in points per game and tied for 22nd in offensive rating alongside Detroit. The Pistons, meanwhile, rank ninth in defensive rating, showcasing their ability to limit opponents' scoring opportunities. Both teams play at a deliberate pace, with Detroit ranking tied for 19th in tempo and Charlotte sitting 21st, which should further suppress the scoring output.

Detroit is coming off two days of rest and will likely focus on its defensive identity, particularly after a loss to Chicago earlier this week. Charlotte has struggled to generate consistent offensive production, and this matchup isn't likely to turn into a track meet. Look for both teams to grind out possessions, leading to a game that stays below the posted total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Detroit 106, Charlotte 101.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

Charlotte has been involved in high-scoring games recently, but their offensive production remains among the league's worst, ranking 25th in points per game and 24th in offensive rating. The Hornets' struggles to generate consistent offense make it difficult to sustain the elevated scoring pace seen in their last two games. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, tied for 28th in pace, which naturally limits possessions and opportunities for high scores. The Nets are also coming off a game in which they failed to crack 110 points, highlighting their offensive inconsistencies.

Historically, matchups between these teams haven’t featured much offensive fireworks, with their most recent meeting last March totaling only 209 points. Given both teams' tendencies and their recent form, this game is more likely to follow a methodical pace and struggle to exceed the posted total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Brooklyn 108, Charlotte 103.

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8 pm ET on Sunday.

While both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, this matchup should see a shift toward a lower-scoring contest. Houston ranks third in defensive rating, and their ability to control the tempo and limit opponent scoring is a key strength. Chicago has been more consistent offensively, but the Rockets’ defense should present a challenge, potentially slowing down the pace and keeping the total lower than expected.

Additionally, Chicago’s recent games have featured a mix of high-scoring and more controlled matchups, and I expect the Rockets' defense to assert itself more in this game. With both teams having solid defensive capabilities, the game is likely to see fewer points than projected. I expect a competitive but lower-scoring outcome. Projected score: Houston 110, Chicago 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Cleveland at 6 pm ET on Sunday.

While both teams have recently been involved in high-scoring games, this matchup should feature a shift back toward a more controlled pace. Cleveland's defense has been a key factor in their undefeated start to the season, as they currently rank highly in defensive efficiency. While they have scored a lot of points in recent games, their defense remains solid, and they should be able to limit Charlotte's offense.

Charlotte, despite their high-scoring win against Milwaukee yesterday, has not consistently shown the ability to put up large point totals, especially against a defensively strong team like Cleveland. Additionally, the back-to-back nature of Charlotte’s schedule could lead to fatigue, impacting their offensive efficiency. With both teams likely emphasizing defense, this game should stay below the total. I project a final score of Cleveland 112, Charlotte 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Saturday.

The Kings are coming off consecutive high-scoring games, including a 130-126 overtime loss at home to the Timberwolves last night. While Sacramento has shown offensive firepower, playing on the second night of a back-to-back could slow their pace and overall efficiency. Utah, meanwhile, is coming off a narrow 115-113 home win over Dallas on Thursday and typically plays at a slower tempo than the Kings.

Notably, the first meeting between these teams this season combined for just 209 total points back in October. With both teams having shown defensive lapses but also the potential for tighter, lower-scoring contests, the setup favors a play on the 'under,' especially with Sacramento's potential fatigue in play.

Take the under. Projected score: Sacramento 110, Utah 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 10 pm ET on Friday.

Despite recent trends pointing toward high-scoring games for both teams, this matchup sets up as an opportunity for a lower total. Memphis is coming off a 128-123 loss to the Lakers, a game that saw their defensive intensity lapse late. However, the Grizzlies have shown the ability to buckle down defensively in bounce-back spots, particularly against opponents that rely heavily on perimeter scoring like Golden State. The Warriors, meanwhile, have seen the 'over' cash in six straight games, largely due to their fast-paced offense. But this high total accounts for that, creating value in fading the trend.

Golden State’s perimeter shooting will likely face resistance from Memphis' defense, which, when focused, can disrupt opponents’ offensive rhythm. On the other side, Memphis may struggle to maintain consistent scoring against a Warriors defense that is better at home. Expect both teams to play with more emphasis on defensive adjustments after their recent high-scoring outings.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Golden State 114, Memphis 108.

Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

In an interesting scheduling quirk, this will be the third meeting between the Timberwolves and Trail Blazers this season. They won't match up again until February. Both previous matchups have been relatively high-scoring, producing 'over' results. That includes last night's 122-108 stunner in favor of the Blazers. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair in tonight's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves still rank top-10 in the league in defensive rating this season, not to mention 18th in pace. Portland is an identical 28th in the NBA in both points per game and offensive rating this season. The Blazers actually got off just 84 field goal attempts in last night's 122-point outburst. They quite simply shot the lights out in that game including a blistering 18-for-32 from beyond the arc. I'm not expecting anything close to a repeat performance on Wednesday. Take the under. Projected score: Minnesota 107, Portland 102.

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

Dallas enters this matchup following a high-scoring 122-120 loss in Denver, but the Mavericks typically play a more controlled, slower-paced game, ranking 18th in the league in pace. Defensively, they sit at 13th in the NBA in defensive rating, which has helped them keep games competitive even when their offense stalls. Against a Warriors team known for an explosive offense, Dallas will likely try to set a more deliberate tempo to limit transition opportunities for Golden State.

Golden State, meanwhile, has shown a consistent defensive effort this season, ranking in the top five in defensive rating. Although they’re coming off a high-scoring win over Oklahoma City, the Warriors are well-suited to locking down opponents, especially when playing at home. Expect both teams to focus on defense and see fewer possessions in what should be a relatively low-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 112, Mavericks 105.

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Denver at 8 pm ET on Sunday.

While Denver has been a high-scoring team recently, with the 'over' hitting in seven straight games, Dallas has a very different profile. The Mavericks rank in the bottom half of the league in points per game but are tied for seventh in defensive rating. This defensive efficiency should help keep the game closer to the number. Additionally, Denver, despite its offensive firepower, isn't immune to slowing down when facing teams with strong defensive units like Dallas. The Mavericks are particularly effective at controlling tempo, which could limit the overall number of possessions in this game.

The last time these teams met in March, the game finished with just 212 total points, highlighting the potential for a lower-scoring affair when they face off. Dallas's ability to stifle high-scoring offenses, combined with their slower pace, should result in fewer fast-break opportunities and fewer points on the board. Even though Denver's recent games have trended toward the over, this matchup offers a good spot for the 'under.' Take the under. Score prediction: Dallas 111, Denver 108.

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Phoenix at 8:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Suns have been playing a methodical style of basketball this season, ranking 23rd in the NBA in pace. While they’ve been highly effective in their 8-1 start, much of their success has come from a balanced defensive approach and controlling the tempo, which lends itself to lower-scoring games. Both teams are also solid defensively, with Sacramento ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating. Despite having an offense capable of putting up points, the Kings have shown the ability to grind out games with a more controlled pace against teams like Phoenix.

The most recent matchup between these two teams was a tightly contested 108-107 game last April, which produced a relatively low total given the offensive potential of both squads. With Phoenix likely to slow the game down and Sacramento also focusing on defensive execution, the pace of this game should be slower than many expect, especially considering both teams' recent tendencies. With the total for this game set lower, it's reasonable to expect another lower-scoring affair.

Take the 'under'.

Score prediction: Phoenix 113, Sacramento 108.

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 7 pm ET on Sunday.

Both teams have shown impressive defensive improvements this season, with the Thunder ranking first in defensive rating and the Warriors close behind at second. Oklahoma City's defense has been a key factor in their success, and while they’ve had a few high-scoring games recently, their overall defensive effort should keep Golden State's offense in check. The Warriors, coming off a high-scoring loss to Cleveland, will likely focus on tightening up defensively, especially given their recent struggles to contain opponents. Their defensive rating suggests that they are capable of stifling Oklahoma City’s offense, which has been efficient but not overly explosive.

In addition to the strong defensive play from both sides, this game will likely feature a slower-paced, more methodical approach, especially with Golden State’s emphasis on ball movement and Oklahoma City’s balance between defense and offense. The Warriors’ tendency to focus on generating efficient scoring opportunities rather than high-volume shooting should help limit the overall score. While both teams have seen the 'over' cash in recent games, this matchup features two of the best defensive units in the league, which should lead to a lower-scoring contest. Take the under. Score prediction: Oklahoma City 112, Golden State 108.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

We got the result we wanted from the Cavaliers most recent game as they lit up the scoreboard in a high-scoring 134-110 home win over the Lakers on Wednesday. Cleveland currently ranks second in the NBA in points per game this season but I do think some regression is in order. With that being said, the Magic are going to be in tough without their best offensive player in Paolo Banchero as he's sidelined with a torn oblique. Note that the Magic have already been held to 41 made field goals or fewer in each of their first five games this season and things don't figure to get better with Banchero out of the lineup. There is reason to believe Orlando can tread water, however, as it is an excellent defensive team. It ranks top-five in defensive rating this season and has allowed just one of five opponents to connect on more than 41 field goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We've seen this total bump up a couple of points compared to last night's number (this is the second half of a back-to-back set in San Francisco). I think it's the wrong move off last night's relatively high-scoring affair (the Warriors won 124-106). New Orleans probably thought Golden State was simply going to roll over in that contest as it was undermanned and trailed by 17 points after the first quarter. Instead, the Warriors stepped on the gas, ultimately hoisting up a whopping 97 field goal attempts (they made good on 46 of them) in a come-from-behind victory. For its part, New Orleans could muster only 74 field goal attempts. Note that the Pelicans have been held to just 36, 38 and 40 made field goals over their last three games. On the flip side, Golden State has held all four of its opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals this season. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Thunder were involved in a relatively low-scoring game in Chicago last night (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a different story to unfold as they return home to host the Hawks on Sunday. The pace was absolutely there for a much higher-scoring contest last night as the Thunder got off a whopping 107 field goal attempts while the Bulls hoisted up 92. The problem was, neither team shot well from the field (Thunder - 42% and Bulls - 35%). The Hawks may not be on the same level of the Thunder but they do have the offense to push them on Sunday. Note that while Oklahoma City was on the floor last night, Atlanta has been idle since Friday. The Hawks are off to a 2-0 start, scoring 120 and 125 points in those two contests. Of note, Atlanta allowed the Nets and Hornets to get off 91 and 96 field goal attempts, respectively. If it hands out scoring opportunities like that again on Sunday, the Thunder figure to go off. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams posted 'over' results in their respective season-openers on Wednesday. The outcomes were far different, however, as the Bucks defeated the 76ers while the Bulls fell to the Pelicans. It's worth noting that neither team played with a lot of pace on Wednesday. The Bulls got off only 86 field goal attempts and were fortunate to get to 111 points thanks to a 49% shooting effort. It's going to be an uphill battle for Chicago offensively following the departure of Demar Derozan. The Bucks hoisted up just 80 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. Of course they shot a blistering 54% from the field. Milwaukee wasn't pushed particularly hard in that contest and I don't think it will be on Friday either. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Timberwolves suffered a 110-103 defeat in their season-opener against the Lakers. It was an ugly offensive effort from a Minnesota team that should be able to light up the scoreboard this season. The T'Wolves shot 41% from the field including 32% from beyond the arc. For their part, the Lakers shot just 44% but Minnesota did allow them to get off a whopping 95 field goal attempts. Of note, Los Angeles connected on just 5-of-30 (17%) three-point attempts so the end result could have been far more lopsided. We'll call for Minnesota to bounce back offensively in its second game of the season on Thursday. The Kings figure to be a willing dance partner in what projects as an up-tempo affair. Sacramento is loaded offensively with Demar Derozan joining an already impressive group. The only question is whether there will be enough shots to go around but on this night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this play sets up on Monday. The oddsmakers have been steadily dropping the total throughout this series and so far it hasn't done a thing to change the result as all four games have stayed 'under' the total. I believe they've made too much of an adjustment in advance of Game 5, however.

Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in Mavericks games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points this season. I do think the Mavs figured a few things out in their Game 4 blowout victory at home as they finally pushed the pace and were rewarded with their highest scoring performance since Game 5 of the opening round against the Clippers.

I do think we'll see a big response from the Celtics offense after they were held to a putrid 29 made field goals in Game 4. Note that the 'over' is 13-4 with Boston seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season. The 'over' is also 3-0 with the Celtics coming off five straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here.

Remember, the two regular season matchups between these two teams produced 229 and 248 total points. I still think this matchup can produce a track meet (where both teams participate) but we're obviously running out of runway in this series. Tonight is the night. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:35 pm et on Thursday.

We finally saw an 'under' result in game 4 of this series on Tuesday and with the Timberwolves once again facing elimination in Game 5 on Thursday, I only expect to see things tighten up even more. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 5-1 with Minnesota facing elimination in a playoff series over the last three seasons including a 3-0 mark in that situation this season. Dallas has held 12 of its last 16 opponents to 40 made field goals or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota has limited five of its last six foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time the T'Wolves connected on more than 43 field goals. Dallas has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight and 18 of its last 19 contests. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves have inexplicably dropped the first three games in this series and they'll need to step up their game defensively if they want to avoid the sweep on Tuesday night in Dallas. Note that the Mavericks have now reeled off five straight victories. That's notable as they've posted 2-11 o/u record when coming off five or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons including a 1-6 o/u mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen the 'under' go 6-1 when coming off three straight 'over' results this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 4-1 with the T'Wolves facing elimination in a playoff series over the last three seasons including a 2-0 record this season. Keep in mind, the Mavs got off only 68 field goal attempts in Game 3 on Sunday. They quite simply shot the lights out. The T'Wolves also shot well from the field but that was the first time in eight games they eclipsed the 50% mark. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday.

The pace wasn't necessarily there in either game but both Games 1 and 2 made their way 'over' the total. I'll call for a different result as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The Mavericks completely stifled the Timberwolves offense in the first two games of this series. Here, it will be Minnesota's turn to rise to the occasion defensively as this is for all intents and purposes a must-win game. We know the T'Wolves are capable of taking their show on the road as they held the Nuggets to 35 or fewer made field goals in three of four games in Denver last round. I'm just not certain they can break through offensively against a Mavs squad that has now held nine of their last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Pacers have displayed matador-like defense in the first two games of this series and have their backs against the wall as they return home down 2-0 on Saturday. I do expect them to at least offer some resistance in this spot as we know there's no coming back from a 3-0 deficit against a team as good as the Celtics. Of course, there are injury concerns for Indiana as well with Tyrese Haliburton leaving Game 2 with hamstring soreness - an injury he's battled throughout the season. Whether Haliburton is able to go or not on Saturday, I'm still anticipating a lower-scoring affair as both teams make their adjustments with the scene shifting to Indiana. We're always looking to isolate 'catalysts for change', especially when it comes to playoff totals and that is certainly in play here. Take the under (8*).