Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -6 | 110-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers have been one of the best bets in the league in recent weeks but we'll fade them here as they head to Boston off consecutive ATS victories on their current five-game road trip. Note that the Celtics are hot as well, winners of three straight games both SU and ATS. I don't think there's any letdown in order for the C's here as they dropped their lone previous matchup with the Clippers this season by a whopping 20 points in Los Angeles. With the Clips having allowed their last three opponents to make good on 47, 44 and 43 field goals, I think the Celtics are catching them at the right time here. Boston cleaned things up defensively last time out, holding Houston to just 38 made field goals on 95 attempts. On the flip side, the C's have knocked down 44, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. Look for them to keep rolling on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Providence v. Butler -1.5 | 72-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over Providence at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. While Providence is the hotter team right now, there's actually only two games separating these two teams this season, despite the fact that Butler has faced the far more difficult schedule (according to KenPom). While Providence has faced the 294th most difficult schedule so far, Butler checks in having gone against the 40th toughest slate. Here, we'll fade the Friars as they come off a 103-point effort against Marquette - their fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory. Butler is in a prime bounce-back spot at home after losing its last two games, with both of those defeats coming in blowout fashion. Take Butler (8*). |
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12-28-22 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 131 | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duquesne and Dayton at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think Dayton is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here after holding Wyoming and Alcorn State to fewer than 50 points in consecutive games. Duquesne has displayed a solid floor when it comes to point totals this season, scoring 66 points or more in 11 of 13 games to date. With both teams having faced similar schedules in terms of difficulty according to KenPom, you could argue that Duquesne has been the better offensive team. Defensively, the Dukes leave a lot to be desired, however, allowing three more made field goals on one less field goal attempt per game compared to the Flyers. Dayton is favored by nearly double-digits for a reason here but I do think Duquesne can at least bait it into a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Hornets +4.5 v. Warriors | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the banged-up Warriors off their stunning Christmas Day rout of the Grizzlies as a 7.5-point underdog. While they do catch the Hornets in a back-to-back spot, Charlotte is off a double-digit loss in Portland. I like the way the Hornets have been pushing the envelope offensively, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in eight straight games entering Tuesday's contest. It's been a much different story defensively, but I do think they're well-positioned here with the undermanned Warriors having made good on 43 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and Sunday's 91-FG attempt performance marking a four-game high (they had gotten off 81, 74 and 83 FG attempts in their previous three contests). Simply put, it's difficult to win by margin when you're only attempting 80-83 FG attempts per game, especially against a team like the Hornets that will find its offensive opportunities regardless (they've scored over 100 points in 11 straight games). Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Knicks +5.5 v. Mavs | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Knicks as they look to snap their three-game losing streak in Dallas on Tuesday night. New York has been quite efficient offensively, despite its recent losing ways, knocking down 42 or more field goals in four straight games entering this contest. They lost at home against the 76ers on Christmas Day despite limiting Philadelphia to only 77 field goal attempts while getting off 90 themselves. I expect a reversal of fortunes here noting that the Mavericks are fresh off a nine-point win (and cover) over the Lakers on Christmas Day, getting off a four-game high 84 FG attempts while holding Los Angeles to a six-game low 80 in that affair. Dallas took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 21 points in New York earlier this month. New York had swept the two-game series last season, winning those contests by 23 and 30-point margins. Take New York (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Jacksonville in its most recent game but I think it's in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as it travels to face Notre Dame which is in a 'sling-shot' situation after a tough three-game stretch that saw it face Marquette, Georgia and Florida State. With that being said, I don't think we see the Irish run away and hide in this one. Note that Jacksonville has impressively gone 7-3 despite facing the 32nd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Irish are actually allowing five more made field goals on only two additional shot attempts per game this season in comparison with the Dolphins. The two teams are virtually mirror images of one another offensive, from a statistical standpoint at least, in the early going this season. I expect both to find some success here and we're dealing with a reasonably low total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the T'Wolves here as I'm confident they can at the very least take this game down to the wire in a matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks. Minnesota had won three games in a row prior to dropping tough decisions against the Mavericks and Celtics. They still enter Monday's contest having made good on 42 or more field goals in five straight games, while holding three of their last six opponents to 34 or fewer made shots. Miami had also been hot prior to dropping its last two games, winners of four in a row. I don't see the same level of consistency from the Heat offense, however, noting that they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Interestingly, the T'Wolves have knocked down four more field goals per game than the Heat this season, despite getting off just one more field goal attempt per contest. At the other end of the floor, Minnesota has allowed one more made field goal but on five additional attempts yielded to opponents. The T'Wolves should come in with confidence having taken all three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 113-104 win here in Miami last March. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | 118-139 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 5:10 pm et on Sunday. I see this as a potential blow-up spot for the Celtics offense against a Bucks defense that has struggled to find its way in the early going this season. Milwaukee checks in having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last seven games overall. Meanwhile, the Celtics have gotten off an incredible 100 or more field goal attempts in four of their last eight contests. The C's certainly looked in-sync on Friday as they knocked down 44 field goals and scored 121 points in a double-digit win over Minnesota. Defensively, the C's have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. My concern here is that we see a lopsided contest and one side or the other takes the air out of the basketball in the second half, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only. Take the first half over (10*). |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 224 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers scored 117 points in an upset victory in Boston last time out but needed a whopping 98 field goal attempts to get there. It's highly unlikely they come close to approaching that level of production here as Miami has held five of its last seven opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts, including these same Pacers back on December 12th, in a game that totalled just 169 points. For their own part, the Heat aren't scoring with much consistency right now, knocking down 40 or more field goals just once in their last six contests. The Pacers have quietly held the opposition in check lately, yielding just 38, 39 and 39 made field goals over their last three games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-22 | Bellarmine v. Evansville OVER 127.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Bellarmine and Evansville at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I simply feel this total will prove too low as these two teams look to bounce back from losses suffered last time out. Bellarmine has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season - 10th most difficult according to KenPom - yet still checks in a respectable 105th in the country in offensive rating. I expect it to bring a barrage of threes against a vulnerable Evansville defense here (the Purple Aces rank 276th in the nation in terms of defensive rating). Bellarmine has played at a slow pace so far this season but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition they have gone against. The Purple Aces are a short underdog for a reason here, but do have something to build on after scoring 72 and 69 points, knocking down 18 threes along the way, in their last two games. I do think they can at least keep pace here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair as they look to go into the holiday break (they won't play again until the 29th) on a positive note. Take the over (8*). |
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12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take this opportunity to fade the Cavs, who check in 8-5 straight-up on the road this season but have been outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points per contest. The Cavs are 15-2 on their home floor, laying waste to the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. While it's true Milwaukee just dismantled a good New Orleans team in a 128-119 victory in the Big Easy two nights ago, the Bucks are also just two games removed from a 41-point rout at the hands of the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Cavs are riding a four-game winning streak and will have revenge in mind here after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both games were played in Milwaukee). Cleveland took both matchups on its home floor last season and neither game was all that competitive with the Cavs winning by 16 and 18 points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 233.5 | 91-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. A letdown was certainly to be expected from the Grizzlies last time out as they went into Oklahoma City after scoring 128 and 142 points in home wins over the Hawks and Bucks, what turned out to be the tail-end of a seven-game winning streak. While the Grizz still got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss to the Thunder, they made good on just 34 of those shots. Here, they do draw another forgiving defensive team in Denver, noting that the Nuggets have allowed 41 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games and more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Denver had rattled off eight straight games shooting better than 50% from the field before slowing down in its last two contests. I expect it to get right back on track here, noting that Memphis has allowed five straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more FG attempts and gives up an average of 42 made field goals per game away from home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Jacksonville -6.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 12:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Jacksonville on Tuesday as I'm higher than most on the Dolphins (noting that they've faced the 14th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom). Today's opponent, Louisiana-Monroe, picked up its fourth win of the season against Lamar last time out. Keep in mind, Lamar is a 4-8 squad as well, one that has yet to post a win over a Division-I opponent. The Warhawks previous three victories this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, Central Baptist and Champion Christian College. Jacksonville has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games entering this one but one of those contests came against a solid 9-3 N.C.-Wilmington team and the other was a nine-point victory (missing the cover by only a bucket) over Charleston Southern. You'd be hard-pressed to find an area of the game where the Dolphins don't own an edge in this matchup - perhaps shot blocking is the lone exception. I'll lay the points. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Weber State v. Utah State -15.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. We'll lay the points with the Aggies here as they look to continue their red hot start to the season against Weber State. While Weber State has faced the tougher schedule so far this season according to KenPom, the difference is negligible with the Wildcats going against the 116th most difficult slate and Utah State checking in at 126th. With that in mind, Utah State has posted vastly superior numbers at both ends of the floor. The Aggies have made good on nine more field goals per game compared to Weber State, on exactly nine more attempts per contest. They've hit five more three-pointers per game on only four additional attempts from beyond the arc by comparison. It's a similar story at the other end of the floor with Utah State allowing one less made field goal per game, on six additional shot attempts per contest. From the outside, both teams have allowed eight made threes per game but Utah State has done so on two more attempts allowed. With Weber State coming off a stunning 74-45 win as a 5.5-point underdog at Cal-Poly, we'll fade the Wildcats in this letdown spot. Take Utah State (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a prime letdown spot for the Magic as they come in 'fat and happy' off a two-game sweep of the Celtics in Boston and now play their second game in as many nights, in Atlanta on Monday. The Hawks are desperately trying to find some consistency, winners of just two of their last seven games overall. The good news is, they're coming off one of their best performances of the season as they defeated Charlotte 125-106 on Friday. On the heels of two days off and having scored 116 or more points in four of their last five games, I look for them to pull away for a convincing win over the upstart Magic on Monday. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nets are rolling right now, already a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on their current road trip and winners of five consecutive games overall. I think this is a tough game to get up for, however, as they head to Detroit to take on the lowly Pistons on Sunday. Detroit will be revenge-minded in this one after dropping all four matchups against the Nets last season. Note that Brooklyn checks in a woeful 2-11 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. The Nets are also just 19-31 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by just 1.9 points on average in that spot. The Pistons, meanwhile, have gone 39-20 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Take Detroit (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Quinnipiac -3.5 v. St. Peter's | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have faced difficult schedules with Quinnipiac checking in having gone against the 342nd toughest slate of games according to KenPom and St. Peter's having faced the 357th most difficult. With that being said, Quinnipiac has certainly handled its business a little better, going 9-2 compared to the Peacocks 5-5 mark. The visitors have made good on three more field goals per game compared to the home side, despite getting off one less attempt per contest. From beyond the arc, Quinnipiac has knocked down one more three per game on one less attempt as well. Defensively, these two sides are difficult to compare but Quinnipiac has yielded four more made field goals per game, albeit on 10 additional attempts from the field on average. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Belmont v. Chattanooga -5 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chattanooga minus the points over Belmont at 2 pm et on Sunday. The difference in strength of schedule between these two teams this season is not insignificant with Chattanooga having faced the 154th toughest according to KenPom and Belmont checking in having gone against the 234th most difficult. With that in mind, Chattanooga has still managed to post better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on one more field goal per game despite averaging one less attempt compared to Belmont. Chattanooga has also allowed two fewer field goal makes to the opposition despite those foes getting off five more attempts per game compared to Belmont. It's been virtually a wash from beyond the arc, although Chattanooga would appear to have a slight edge defensively in that department as well, yielding just one additional made three per game on five more attempts by comparison. Take Chattanooga (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the down-trodden Thunder here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak (not to mention get back at the Grizzlies after dropping both previous meetings this season) on Saturday nigiht in Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies are of course red hot off seven consecutive wins both SU and ATS. It's worth noting however that they've only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.6 points when playing on the road off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Teh Thunder are 27-15 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons and 17-6 ATS over the same stretch when coming off four or more losses in a row, outscored by only 3.1 points on average in that latter situation. Note that last season, the Thunder went 2-1 ATS against the Grizzlies despite getting drilled by a ridiculous 73 points in their first matchup of the season. Memphis has won only two of 14 road games by double-digit margins this season and it needed to get off nine more field goal attempts against Sacramento and eight more against Detroit to do so. It's unlikely it will benefit from that sort of shot disparity here as it checks in having allowed 90+ field goal attempts to each of its last four opponents while Oklahoma City has limited three of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grambling State +18 v. Virginia Tech | 48-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grambling plus the points over Virginia Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. I don't think this will be the beatdown most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Blacksburg. Grambling State has actually faced the slightly tougher schedule compared to ACC opponent Virginia Tech this season (203rd toughest compared to 206th according to KenPom). In spite of that, Grambling's numbers hold up reasonably well here. Virginia Tech has been the better team offensively, but from a defensive standpoint, the Hokies have allowed five more field goal attempts per game with the opposition making good on all five of those in comparison to Grambling. Grambling has given up the same number of made three-pointers per contest as Virginia Tech, but on three additional attempts from beyond the arc per game. While Grambling has knocked down three fewer threes itself per game, that's on eight fewer attempts compared to the Hokies. Take Grambling (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Miami-OH v. Bellarmine -6.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bellarmine minus the points over Miami-Ohio at 4 pm et on Saturday. Bellarmine has quietly faced the fourth toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Miami-Ohio hasn't exactly faced a cupcake-laden sked, it ranks 178th in the country in that department. In spite of that, Bellarmine has arguably posted the better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on just one less field goal per game compared to Miami-Ohio, despite getting off an average of six fewer attempts per contest. It has also knocked down an identical nine three-pointers per game despite hoisting up two fewer attempts from beyond the arc. Defensively, Miami-Ohio yields seven more made field goals per contest (on nine additional attempts). Bellarmine allows one less made three-pointer per game despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts from outside. You get the idea. Take Bellarmine (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State minus the points over Texas State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Sam Houston State has quietly faced the 31st toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas State checks in having faced the 253rd most difficult schedule. In spite of that, SHSU has posted better numbers at both ends of the floor. SHSU has made good on six more field goals per game on just nine additional attempts per contest compared to Texas State. Defensively, the visitors have allowed five fewer made field goals per game on only two fewer attempts per contest. It's a similar story from beyond the arc with SHSU knocking down three more three-pointers per game on seven additional attempts and holding the opposition to just one more made three per contest on six additional attempts from outside. Take Sam Houston State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Bowling Green | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee-Martin plus the points over Bowling Green at 2 pm et on Saturday. There's little separating these two teams in terms of strength of schedule to this point with Tennessee-Martin checking in having faced the 257th toughest schedule according to KenPom and Bowling Green having gone against the 283rd most difficult slate of games. With the former coming in on an extended ATS slide I believe the pendulum has swung far enough to back it in this spot. Note that Tennessee-Martin knocks down four more field goals per game compared to Bowling Green this season, on only one additional attempt on average. It also makes good on two more three-pointers per contest one one more three-point attempt per game compared to BGSU. It's a similar story defensively, with both sides allowing 27 made field goals per game but Tennessee-Martin doing so on four more attempts per contest allowed. I expect this one to go down to the wire and will grab all the points I can get with the visitors. Take Tennessee-Martin (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Providence v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Providence at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with Seton Hall here as it looks to best Providence in a matchup of two teams riding identical three-game winning streaks. Only one game separates these two teams this season with Providence checking in with the slightly better overall record. All records aren't created equal, however, at least not in college basketball. Providence has faced the 349th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Seton Hall checks in having gone against the 61st most difficult schedule. Providence does own the better offensive numbers this season but Seton Hall can hold its own, and then some, defensively having allowed four fewer made field goals per game (on four fewer attempts per contest on average) compared to the Friars. Opponents are knocking down two fewer three-pointers per contest against Seton Hall despite hoisting up an identical 19 three-point attempts per game compared to Providence. I mentioned that the Friars have been superior offensively but not necessarily from beyond the arc, where both teams check in having made good on 6-of-19 threes per game. Take Seton Hall (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 228.5 | 114-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup in Chicago two nights ago. While that contest reached a whopping 248 total points, it was aided by overtime, not to mention both teams shooting the lights out. I expect a different story to unfold in Friday's quick rematch. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 with the Bulls coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 215.2 points in that spot. The Bulls have also seen the 'under' cash at an 18-8 clip when coming off consecutive defeats over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 222.7 points, still comfortably below the number we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing). It's not as if this has been a particularly high-scoring series. Of last season's four meetings, three totalled 213 points or less. Wednesday's 'over' result snapped a six-game 'under' streak for the Knicks and their road games have still totalled an average of just 224.7 points this season. Meanwhile, the Bulls have seen their home games total an average of 225.8 points. I simply feel this total has been set too high as a result of Wednesday's track meet. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Murray State minus the points over Austin Peay at 8 pm et on Friday. It hasn't been a banner start to the season for Murray State and that was clear in its most recent game as it struggled to get past Chicago State as a double-digit favorite, ultimately winning that game by a single point. I do like the way the matchup favors the Racers on Friday, however, as they host Austin Peay. While the latter has faced the 205th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, Murray State has faced the 153rd most difficult. That's notable as the Racers have advantages at both ends of the floor in spite of it. Murray State has gotten off one less field goal attempt per game this season but has actually made good on one additional shot per contest compared to Austin Peay. At the defensive end of the floor it's really no contest as Murray State has allowed one more made field goal per game in comparison with Austin Peay, but on 10 more attempts per contest. In a similar vein, Murray State's opponents have knocked down one more three-point attempt per game compared to Austin Peay, but on seven additional attempts on average. We'll confidently lay the points with a Racers squad that took both meetings last season by double-digit margins. Take Murray State (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 227 | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Having lost three games in a row and after allowing 124 points against the Kings two nights ago, I can't help but feel the Raptors main focus will be on tightening things up defensively ahead of this clash with the Nets on Friday. Offensively, Toronto did put up 123 points against Sacramento, but it needed 94 field goal attempts (knocking down 50% of those) to get there. Here, we'll note that the Nets have seen the 'under' go 33-16 when the total has been set between 220 and 229.5 over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, the Raptors have posted a 3-13 o/u mark when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the same stretch, leading to an average total of only 209.2 points in that situation. None of the three previous meetings between these division rivals this season have sniffed out tonight's posted total, reaching just 214, 210 and 219 total points. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night in Charlotte. The Hawks have gotten drilled in the first two games of their current road trip, allowing 128 and 135 points in lopsided defeats in Memphis and Orlando. You have to imagine they'll be looking to button things up defensively in this one, noting that they've actually allowed 120 points or more in four straight games heading in. The good news is, they've allowed just 91 and 116 points in their last two trips to Charlotte going back to last season with neither of those contests coming close to approaching the lofty total we're dealing with tonight. Charlotte is reeling as well having lost six consecutive games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 with the Hornets playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, 13-3 when playing at home off two straight losses over the last two seasons and 9-1 when at home following three consecutive defeats over the same stretch. Perhaps better still, the 'under' is 15-5 with Charlotte playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 214.5 points in that spot - a full 20 points below the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Santa Clara | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Santa Clara at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Anteaters of Cal-Irvine have faced the 58th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom (Santa Clara checks in at 157th) yet have all but matched the Broncos numbers to date. In fact, UC-Irvine averages four more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to Santa Clara. It also knocks down an identical eight three-pointers per contest despite getting off six fewer attempts per game from beyond the arc. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor. Santa Clara gives up seven more field goal attempts per game compared to UC-Irvine, with opponents making good on five of those extra seven shots. On four more three-point attempts yielded per game, the Broncos allow a per game average of three additional makes from beyond the arc. Add in the fact that UC-Irvine has seen its opponents knock down a likely unsustainable 71% of their free throw attempts, and I like the Anteaters chances of staging a minor upset here. Take Cal-Irvine (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans -1 v. Jazz | 129-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. Utah took the front half of this two-game set in Salt Lake City two nights ago but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Thursday. Utah has actually taken both meetings in this series so far this season. However, it's worth noting that neither team has managed to pull off a three-game winning streak in the series over the last 11 meetings going back to 2020. New Orleans checks in averaging the same number of made field goals per game as Utah this season, but on one fewer attempt per contest. It knocks down four fewer three-pointers per game but that's on nine fewer attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Pelicans give up two fewer made field goals per contest, on two fewer attempts. Utah is giving up three fewer made threes per game - but again, that's on seven fewer attempts from beyond the arc. I'll bite with the Pelicans here. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Bowling Green v. Norfolk State -4.5 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State minus the points over Bowling Green at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Norfolk State as it looks to pick up a second victory over Bowling Green in as many years following last year's 90-84 road triumph. According to KenPom, Norfolk State has faced the 19th toughest schedule in the nation this season. Bowling Green on the other hand checks in having gone against the 297th toughest. In spite of that, the Falcons have made good on two fewer field goals per game compared to Norfolk State, on six more attempts. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor where Bowling Green has allowed three more made field goals on only one additional attempt compared to Norfolk State. The Falcons have recorded two of their three highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests and perhaps that is holding plenty of water with this line. I simply feel that Norfolk State is the superior team at both ends of the floor and will once again frustrate Bowling Green after keeping the Falcons on the perimeter for much of last year's contest between the two teams (BGSU hoisted up 40 three-point attempts, making only 12 in that game). Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 226.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating with the Bulls coming off consecutive high-scoring contests. In stark contrast, the Knicks have seen each of their last six games stay 'under' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-17 with New York playing on the road off an ATS win over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of only 208.4 points. As for the Bulls, they've seen the 'under' go 23-10 after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 218.9 points in that spot. This season, Chicago has posted a 3-11 o/u mark when coming off a loss, with an average total of 221.1 points scored in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Stetson +15 v. College of Charleston | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stetson plus the points over Charleston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I realize that this is a 'revenge game' for Charleston after it went on the road and lost by eight points as a 5.5-point favorite against Stetson in last year's meeting between the two teams. I also realize that Charleston is off to a terrific 10-1 start to the season while Stetson checks in at 5-3. Still, I'll happily grab the generous helping of points with the underdog side here as I like the way it matches up. Note that Stetson has quietly faced the 72nd toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Charleston checks in having gone against the 107th most difficult schedule. With that said, Stetson has made good on one more field goal per game (one one less attempt) compared to Charleston while also allowing two fewer made field goals on just one less attempt. Stetson has also knocked down 10 three-pointers per game - an identical average to that of Charleston, however Stetson has done it on three fewer attempts per contest. I just don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as is seemingly being indicated by the lofty pointspread. Take Stetson (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Queens NC +3.5 v. East Tennessee State | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Queens plus the points over East Tennessee State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Noting that East Tennessee State hasn't really faced anyone of substance this season (345th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom) and still limps into this contest having lost five of its last seven games SU and all six from an ATS perspective in lined contests over that stretch, I'm not sure it has any business laying points here. Queens has done nothing but impress, going 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 ATS in lined games this season. It checks in having knocked down two more field goals per game compared to East Tennessee State, while getting off only one additional attempt per contest. It also allows only two more made field goals per game despite yielding nine more attempts than ETSU. It goes on from there - Queens makes good on nine three-pointers per game compared to six for ETSU, with the former only attempting four additional shots from beyond the arc. You get the idea. We'll grab the points here. Take Queens-Charlotte (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Coastal Carolina +4.5 v. South Dakota | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Dakota at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take a flyer on Coastal Carolina here in this rematch of a meeting on November 26th - the Chanticleers won that game by seven points as a four-point home favorite. I've yet to see anything indicating that South Dakota is worthy of the 'favorite' tag here. Yes, South Dakota has faced the more difficult schedule this season but it has also gone a woeful 2-7 ATS in lined contests. Note that Coastal Carolina is getting off five more field goal attempts per game, and has made good on all five, averaging 29 made field goals per contest compared to South Dakota's 24. CCU has also held opponents to just 24 made field goals per game, that's three fewer than South Dakota has given up, despite CCU yielding three more FG attempts per contest. South Dakota does have a slight edge in terms of three-point shooting, but CCU has defended the perimeter reasonably well, allowing just eight makes on 25 attempts per game (South Dakota allows the same number of made threes on two fewer attempts). Take Coastal Carolina (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Celtics here after they suffered their second straight loss (only their second losing streak of the season) on this same floor against the Clippers last night. Note that Boston scored only 93 points in that defeat, putting it in an excellent situation here given it has gone 11-2 ATS after scoring 95 points or less in its previous contest over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points on average in that spot. The Celtics are also 13-4 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12.6 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lakers are off a win and cover in Detroit at the tail-end of a long road trip and are just 16-29 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 3.9 points on average along the way. Worse still, they're 31-47 ATS as an underdog over that stretch, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points in those contests. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Alabama at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is being indicated by the pointspread. Alabama has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom but Memphis isn't far behind at 40th. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down one more field goal per game compared to Alabama despite attempting four fewer shots per contest. While 'Bama has made good on four more three-pointers per game, that's only because it has gotten off 13 more attempts compared to Memphis. Defensively, I have the two teams as a virtual wash with the Crimson Tide in slightly poorer form having allowed their last four opponents to make good on 26, 38, 26 and 25 field goals. We can anticipate a high-scoring environment here with neither side looking to slow the pace of the opposition in recent games. Given that, I expect the Tigers offensive prowess to keep them in the game from start to finish as they look to upset the revenge-minded Crimson Tide (Memphis took last year's matchup 92-78). Take Memphis (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-13-22 | Green Bay v. St. Thomas -12 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas minus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands in this one as St. Thomas catches Green Bay coming off an outright upset as a 6.5-point underdog against UMKC last time out. While Green Bay has struggled to eclipse 23 made field goals on most nights (that's its high-water mark in that department this season), St. Thomas has been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor. St. Thomas averages seven more made field goals per game compared to Green Bay on just six more attempts. It has also been considerably sharper defensively, yielding two fewer made field goals despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts per contest compared to Green Bay. There's no real discrepancy here in terms of strength of schedule as KenPom rates Green Bay as having faced the 229th toughest schedule in the country with St. Thomas checking in at 223rd. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Stonehill +13 v. Boston College | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stonehill plus the points over Boston College at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer on Stonehill on Tuesday as it looks to make life miserable for the already-cantankerous Boston College Eagles, a team that has lost four consecutive games. Despite the two teams facing a similar strength of schedule to this point this season (Boston College ranks 165th and Stonehill checks in 178th according to KenPom), we've seen them post similar numbers at both ends of the floor. Stonehill has actually knocked down one more field goal per game on two fewer attempts, while allowing three additional made fields goals per contest, but on five extra attempts. Stonehill is getting off four more three-point attempts per game compared to Boston College, and impressively knocking down all four of those extra shot attempts from beyond the arc. While B.C. will obviously be desperate to end its slide, Stonehill should come to play as well off a double-digit loss as a four-point underdog against Rider last time out. I'll grab all the points I can get with a team that has proven it can go on the road and win outright in an underdog role, having done so at Army and at Binghamton (I realize beating an ACC team on the road is a different story but here we're catching a generous helping of points). Take Stonehill (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Longwood -8 v. St Francis NY | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Longwood minus the points over St. Francis-NY at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll bite with Longwood as a road favorite here, noting that it has faced the tougher schedule (marginally according to KenPom) and rates out considerably stronger at both ends of the floor despite the near indentical records the two teams have posted this season. Longwood handled St. Francis-NY by nine points the last time these two teams met back in 2019. The only reason St. Francis was remotely competitive in that game was because it shot just shy of 51% from the field. Here, we'll note that Longwood is averaging six more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to St. Francis this season. At the other end of the floor, Longwood is allowing one less made field goal despite yielding one additional shot attempt per contest. Longwood has also made the most of its opportunities from three-point range, getting off two more shots per game from beyond the arc compared to St. Francis, making good on both of those attempts. Look for Longwood to pull away for the convincing win this afternoon. Take Longwood (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Blazers | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I like the T'Wolves to get some quick revenge against the Blazers on Monday after dropping Saturday's matchup on this floor by a 124-118 score. There's no reason for Minnesota to hang its head as it shot exceptionally well from the field in that contest but quite simply lost the free throw shooting competition (Portland knocked down 25 of 28 FT attempts). The T'Wolves have still held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, which is more than we can say for the Blazers, who have been lit up for 40+ made field goals in 13 of their last 14 contests. Saturday's loss could be chalked up as an anomaly for the T'Wolves as they enter Monday's game an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games against Northwest Division foes, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.3 points along the way. Here, we'll note that Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the previous four times it has sought revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season while Portland is 0-3 ATS after shooting 47% or better from the field in four consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State OVER 139.5 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring slugfest last year as Arizona State pulled off a stunner by a score of 58-57. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of pace here, noting that the high-flying Blue Jays were limited to only 54 field goal attempts in that defeat last year. Their low-water mark in that department this season is 53 but that came in a game where they scored 90 points in a win over Arkansas. I think the question here is whether the Sun Devils can get theirs offensively and I'm confident they can given the way Creighton's opponents have been stuffing the boxscore. The Blue Jays check in having yielded 30 or more made field goals in four of their last five games. Creighton is certainly in line for some positive regression offensively here. After knocking down 31+ field goals in four of its first six games this season it has been held to 27 or fewer made field goals in four straight contests. While Arizona State has been locked in defensively, I think it's in for a 'shock to the system' here against Creighton's shooting barrage. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton -3.5 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. Creighton already had plenty of reason to circle this game on its schedule after Arizona State stunned the Blue Jays 58-57 as a seven-point underdog in last year's matchup between the two teams. Here, we find the Blue Jays riding an unexpected four-game losing streak while the Sun Devils have exceeded expectations by winning nine of their first 10 games. It all leads to a convincing Creighton victory in my opinion. The Sun Devils aren't likely to contain the Blue Jays offense the way they did in last year's matchup, limiting Creighton to just 54 field goal attempts in that previous meeting. Creighton is shooting an average of 29-for-62 this season and should provide Arizona State with a 'shock to its system' after the Sun Devils were favored by five points or more in four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are an impressive 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games following consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 5.7 points on average in that situation. Take Creighton (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat now dropped the cash in four straight games entering Monday's clash with the similarly-slumping Pacers in Indiana. Notably, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS when in that situation on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.3 points. While Miami has held five of its last six opponents to 87 field goal attempts or fewer, Indiana has had no such luck, or interest, in controlling the pace of its opponents, yielding 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four and six of its last nine contests overall. Off an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite against the Spurs on Saturday, we'll call for the revenge-minded Heat (they lost by two points here in Indiana back in early November) to bounce back in a big way here. Take Miami (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Yale -5.5 v. Fairfield | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale minus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Monday. On the heels of its first losing streak this season, Yale will undoubtedly be locked in on its MAAC opponent tonight. There's no shame in the Bulldogs last two losses as they came against Butler and Kentucky, both on the road, and they managed to split those contests from an ATS perspective. Here, they'll face Fairfield riding its first winning streak of the season (two games). Despite facing the tougher schedule (according to KenPom), Yale has made good on nine more field goals (on eight more attempts) per game compared to Fairfield while also limiting opponents to three fewer made field goals (on just one more attempt) per contest this season. The Bulldogs are yielding the same number of made three-pointers (six) per game on two additional attempts. Fairfield has managed to stay competitive largely due to its ability to get to the free throw line (21 attempts per game), however Yale has limited its opponents to just 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Off consecutive losses, I think we see a disciplined performance from the Bulldogs here as they stretch out the margin for a comfortable victory. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 149 | 60-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Friday. Off a stretch that saw it face Purdue, Xavier and Baylor in succession perhaps Gonzaga can be excused for an less-than-inspiring performance against Kent State last time out. Off consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a much stronger offensive showing from the Bulldogs on Friday. Washington's opponents have shot a woeful 39.3% from the field this season. Some of that has to do with strong defensive play from the Huskies but part of it is simply related to luck. With that said, Washington has still allowed five of its last seven opponents to make good on 24 or more field goals. The Huskies have shown no ability, or interest to dictate their opponents' pace and I'm confident Gonzaga can take full advantage of that on Friday. For their part, the Bulldogs allowed 64 and 66 points in their last two games, despite those two opponents shooting sub-40% from the field. While Washington's offensive ceiling isn't all that high, its floor is at a solid level, noting that the Huskies have made good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last eight contests, held to a low-water mark of 62 points on the season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed fading the Knicks two nights ago as they caught a break with Dejounte Murray going down with an injury early for the Hawks in an eventual blowout win. Here, I don't think New York will be so fortunate as it looks for its third consecutive victory. Charlotte rides a three-game losing streak but it isn't playing all that poorly. The Hornets have actually delivered the cash in consecutive games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests. Note also that they'll be seeking revenge for an earlier 134-131 loss in New York back in late October. New York is just 6-6 on the road this season where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points and I simply don't believe it has any business laying points here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they look to snap a three-game skid and also avenge an earlier blowout loss to the Blazers this season. Denver has clamped down on its last two opponents, yielding just 81 and 72 field goal attempts but came away with nothing to show for it. The Nuggets most recent loss was particularly discouraging as they fell by a single point at home against Dallas in what should have been a terrific bounce-back spot. A lot of bettors got burned with Denver in that game and won't have much interest in backing it again here. Portland has knocked down 41 or 42 field goals in four straight games but has also gotten off 85 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests - a number I'm not convinced it will reach here. On the flip side, we've seen the Blazers relax a bit defensively of late, allowing four of its last six opponents to hoist up 89 or more FG attempts. In that type of environment, I believe the potential is there for the Nuggets to go off offensively in this one. Take Denver (8*). |
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12-08-22 | St. Thomas +7.5 v. Montana State | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas plus the points over Montana State at 9 pm et on Thursday. While Montana State has faced the considerably tougher schedule this season, St. Thomas has had a couple of true step-up games (against Creighton and Utah) as well and I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the pointspread indicates. St. Thomas averages three more made field goals per contest on the same number as attempts per game as Montana State this season. It has made good on four more three-pointers per game on just four additional attempts. At the other end of the floor, St. Thomas has allowed the same number of made field goals on two additional attempts per game compared to Montana State. Both teams have seen their opponents make good on better than 72% of their free throw attempts, certainly not a sustainable trend. I realize this is fairly rudimentary handicapping but I think it works in this spot and with Montana State coming off consecutive ATS wins, matching its longest such streak of the season, I like the fade of the home side here. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. Colorado has faced the 25th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and while this matchup with Colorado State looks daunting when you consider the Rams have scored 80+ points in three straight and five of nine games this season, it's important to note that CSU has faced a cupcake schedule (311th toughest in the nation according to KenPom) and is certainly in line for some regression from the field having shot just shy of 50% on the campaign. Colorado has actually allowed just two more made field goals per game (25) compared to Colorado State this season. The Buffaloes have had to play keep-up much of the way, knocking down 26 field goals per contest (that's two fewer than CSU on average, on four more attempts per game). Both of these teams have seen the opposition make good on better than 70% of their free throw attempts - not a sustainable average in my opinion. This has generally been a series played in the 120's and 130's, although the two teams haven't met since the 2019-20 season. I believe this total will prove too high on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-07-22 | Brown v. Rhode Island UNDER 131 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brown and Rhode Island at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Brown should have Rhode Island's undivided attention for this game as the Bears come off four straight wins, shooting 52% or better from the field in their last two contests. Keep in mind, the Rams are coming off an 88-74 loss to Providence in which the Friars shot a blistering 54% from the field. There have essentially been three games where Rhode Island's opponents have shot the lights out this season, that most recent affair against Providence being one of them. Apart from that, the Rams have been tough defensively and I do think this is a matchup they can handle. Both teams sit around the middle of the pack in terms of tempo with Rhode Island checking in 184th and Brown just behind at 187th. Playing at home, I do think we see the Rams dictate the pace here and they certainly won't want to let Brown get out and run after getting boat-raced by Providence last time out (the Friars got off 63 field goal attempts in that game - only the second time Rhode Island allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 56 FG attempts this season). Take the under (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Cornell v. Miami-FL -15.5 | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Wednesday CBB Free play. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Cornell at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always on the lookout for 'shock to the system' type of situations and that's precisely what we have here as Cornell puts its seven-game winning streak on the line against Miami. The Big Red check in 7-1 on the season but they've faced a cupcake schedule (333rd in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom). Cornell has been shooting the lights out with little need to slow things down and make life difficult for opposing offenses. That should come back to bite it here as Miami clamps down defensively while also making the most of its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor. Take Miami. |
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12-06-22 | Yale +6.5 v. Butler | 61-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Butler at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel these two teams are mirror images of one another with the potential for the case to be made for Yale to be the slightly superior team at both ends of the floor, yet here we are catching more than a handful of points with the visiting Bulldogs. Yale does come off a win but non-cover against Stony Brook last time out but there's not much to complain about as it had previously a perfect six-for-six covering in line games this season. Butler comes off consecutive games shooting better than 50% from the field but should be held in check by a Yale defense that has allowed an average of just 19 made field goals on 55 attempts this season. By contrast, Butler has yielded seven more made field goals on only four additional attempts per game this season. While I realize Butler has faced the tougher schedule, I'm not convinced the lofty pointspread is warranted here. Additionally, Butler has made good on just shy of 74% of its free throw attempts this season, not a sustainable percentage in my opinion, while also sending its opponents to the line only 11 times per contest, also unsustainable. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 236 | 112-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams enter Monday's game trending in opposite directions with the Pacers having lost three games in a row both SU and ATS and the Warriors coming off consecutive victories and five wins in their last six contests, also both SU and ATS. Both teams come off 'under' results last time out, and we're starting to see this astronomical total come down a bit. I don't believe the move is warranted. The Pacers check in having knocked down 40+ field goals in four straight games. They're certainly getting their opportunities, hoisting up 94, 105, 100, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over their last five games. The problem is, their defense has been non-existent, allowing six of their last seven opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. Teams are bullying them around and that's not likely to change against the red hot Warriors on Monday. Golden State is rolling right now, making good on 42+ field goals in six consecutive games. On the flip side, it hasn't shown much interest in slowing down the opposition, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. Expect a track meet on Monday in San Francisco. Take the over (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Magic +11 v. Raptors | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have dropped the cash in consecutive games since we successfully backed them on Monday in Brooklyn. Here, I do look for them to give the reeling Raptors a run. Toronto is coming off consecutive road defeats in New Orleans and Brooklyn. The Raptors aren't playing with a great deal of pace right now and that makes it difficult to cover lofty pointspreads such as the one we're looking at on Saturday. While Orlando is struggling, it has managed to hold four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite getting off only 81 field goal attempts themselves last night, the Magic did manage to knock down 40 of them against a tough opponent in the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Toronto checks in having made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Campbell and East Carolina at 7 pm et on Friday. East Carolina checks into this game off back-to-back losses, held under 70 points in both contests after opening the season by scoring 75+ points in six straight games. Pirates opponents have been 'filling it up' so far this season, with six of eight foes having made good on 26 or more field goals, six of eight opponents have also scored more than 70 points. We will give the Pirates due respect in this bounce-back spot, however, confident that they can at least keep up with the Campbell Tigers in the role of short home favorite. Campbell successfully rebounded from its worst offensive showing of the season by exploding for 87 points last time out against Stetson. While Stetson's break-neck pace had a lot to do with that high-scoring result, it's not as if East Carolina will be looking to slow it down either. The problem is, the Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down the same number of field goals per game (24) as ECU despite six fewer attempts while making good on just one less three-pointer per contest, also on eight fewer attempts. Both of these teams get to the free throw line with consistency as Campbell averages 22 FT attempts per contest and ECU checks in averaging 23. The last time these two squads met in 2019 they combined to score 146 points. While the personnel has obviously changed, I'm anticipating a similar result here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. While the Lakers have gone 3-2 ATS over their last five games, I don't believe you're going to win many games, let alone cover a lot of pointspreads when you're allowing the opposition to get off 100 or more field goal attempts on a regular basis. That's the case with Los Angeles as each of its last five opponents have hoisted up 100+ FG attempts. Four of those five opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals and while the Lakers do catch the Blazers in a back-to-back spot, I also feel that Portland will be in a less-than-giving mood after coughing up a double-digit fourth quarter lead in a home loss against the Clippers last night. Portland has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts with the exception being a wild 132-129 overtime victory in New York last Friday. The Lakers recently enjoyed an offensive surge but have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four contests, despite the frenetic pace those games have been played at. The Blazers took the first meeting between these two teams back in October and while you might think the Lakers are poised to get their revenge here, the fact is they have defeated Portland by more than five points just once in five meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Portland (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-30-22 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 227.5 | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams playing at a reasonably slow pace lately and neither shooting particularly well, I believe this total will prove too high on Wednesday. Atlanta has gotten off just 82, 88 and 74 field goal attempts over its last three contests, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in all three. The good news is, the Hawks have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities as well, holding nine of their last 10 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's a similar story for Orlando. It has gotten off 80 or fewer FG attempts in three straight games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time the Magic knocked down 40 or more field goals. Meanwhile, they've held three straight opponents to 82 or fewer FG attempts, including the red hot Nets in a 109-102 loss on Monday. Brooklyn actually shot the lights out in that contest (44 made field goals) yet still scored 'only' 109 points in a game that stayed comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 214 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Portland at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I understand the logic behind this total shifting downward but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Clippers haven't been the same dominant force defensively this season, and certainly not of late as two of their last three opponents have gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts with three of their last four foes knocking down 40+ field goals. In fact, 12 of Los Angeles' last 14 opponents have scored 100+ points. The Blazers have been held to 97 points or less in two of their last three games but should rebound at home, where they're averaging north of 114 points per game on 40 made field goals per contest. Defensively, Portland has allowed eight consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In general, the Blazers play at a faster pace here at the Moda Center, averaging 85 FG attempts per game compared to their season average of 83 while yielding 88 FG attempts per contest to opponents compared to their season average of 86. Take the over (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*). |
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11-28-22 | Magic +10.5 v. Nets | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Monday. With Brooklyn 'fat and happy' off last night's 14-point win over Portland and Orlando looking to bounce back from four straight losses SU and three in a row ATS, I'll confidently grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Magic on Monday. Note that Orlando have Brooklyn all it could handle in two matchups on this floor last season, losing by a bucket and winning by seven. While Orlando is 1-8 on the road this season, only three of those losses came by more than 10 points. I still feel that the Nets have a fairly small margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. They've been shooting the lights out for the better part of the last two weeks but here they're asked to lay double-digits for the first time since October 29th against Indiana (a game they lost outright 125-116). We know the Magic can limit the opposition's scoring opportunities as they've held their last three opponents to 86, 82 and 77 FG attempts. Last night, the 76ers simply couldn't miss, knocking down a ridiculous 64.9% of their shots. Noting that the Magic are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times they've come off consecutive ATS losses, we'll grab all of those points on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. No question the Suns have had this one circled since dropping a wild 134-133 decision in Salt Lake City on November 18th. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that game, knocking down 51-of-91 field goal attempts in the narrow victory. Here, Phoenix catches Utah in a 3-in-4 situation, playing in a third different city over that stretch. The Jazz have had now answers defensively, allowing four of their last six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to make good on 47, 44 and 52 field goals. That spells trouble as they face a red hot Suns squad that has knocked down 42+ field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has rounded back into form defensively, holding its last three opponents to 34, 36 and 39 made field goals (the latter came on 92 FG attempts from the Pistons last night). Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Spurs (again) last night. Once again, we saw them push the pace, getting off 100 field goal attempts, but failing to make those opportunities count in a nine-point loss to the same Lakers they'll face on Saturday. Another positive, San Antonio limited Los Angeles to 83 field goal attempts. It has now held six consecutive opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Teams continue to shoot exceptionally well on this admittedly poor Spurs defense, but I do think we see Pop's crew step up in that regard tonight. Note that the Lakers are a woeful 5-17 ATS after giving up 95 points or fewer in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.5 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Pistons off their big upset win over the Jazz in Utah two nights ago as that marked their third consecutive ATS win, marking their longest such streak of the season. Detroit has shot exceptionally well over its last several games, knocking down 43, 47, 45 and 44 field goals over its last four contests, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of those games. Here, it runs into a Suns squad that has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and its last two foes to just 34 and 36 made field goals. On the flip side, Phoenix is playing at a tremendous pace and making the most of it, hoisting up 94 or more FG attempts in six of its last seven contests and making good on 43+ field goals in five straight games. Noting that the Suns are 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they've come off consecutive double-digit victories, I don't anticipate a letdown off a 10-point victory over the Lakers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 212 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is the second instalment of a two-game set between these two teams in Miami after the Heat prevailed by a 113-105 score on Wednesday. That 'over' result has led to an adjustment to the total here, and I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. Washington continues to defend well, holding three straight and 11 of its 18 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals this season. It has also been efficient offensively for the most part, although it needed to shoot better than 47% from the field to get to 42 made field goals and only 105 points in this same matchup two nights ago. The Wiz are averaging only 87 field goal attempts per game on the road this season while the Heat have held the opposition to 86 FG attempts per contest here at home. Miami has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games including 35 and 39 in two games against Washington (the first of which was aided by overtime). It matched a season-high with 93 FG attempts in regulation time last time out yet still scored 'only' 113 points on 39 made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets have absolutely shot the lights out lately, knocking down 40+ field goals in five straight games and 44 or more in each of their last three. Yet they've still been held to 'only' 112 points or less in three of those contests as their pace still isn't up to par, getting off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. Meanwhile, they're playing with fire at the other end of the floor, as each of their last six foes have hoisted up 91 or more FG attempts with their last three getting off 99+. The Pacers are fit to take advantage, noting that they've made good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall, despite attempting 90 or more field goals in only three of those contests. At the other end of the floor, Indiana has limited three of its last four opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts and four of its last six foes to fewer than 40 makes. Last time out, the T'Wolves quite simply couldn't miss, shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field, yet still won by 'only' 14 points. Take Indiana (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the set-up for this play as the first meeting between these two teams was lower-scoring than expected and the Grizzlies have actually seen the 'under' cash in three of their last five games overall, despite playing at a reasonably fast pace. Memphis has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games entering Friday's contest. It has also made good on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games heading in, but comes off a loss to the Kings last time out. New Orleans has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing three of its last four opponents to knock down 41+ field goals. However, its offense has more than made up for it, making good on 42+ field goals in six straight contests and 49 and 47 over its last two games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 5:10 pm et on Friday. With this line creeping up to +5 I'll step in with a play on the underdog Hornets on Friday. Charlotte is going to get its scoring opportunities, after all it has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games, knocking down 42+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been playing at a slower pace than we've come to expect out of it, getting off 85 or fewer FG attempts in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the T'Wolves last two opponents have racked up 90 and 96 FG attempts but have shot incredibly poor. Noting that Minnesota has won just once in the last five meetings in this series and that victory came at home, by only six points, we'll grab all the points we can get with the Hornets here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -1.5 | 112-98 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the well-rested Raptors as they take the floor following a three-day break, hosting a Nets squad that just got dominated in Philadelphia last night. Brooklyn, once considered one of the league's better defensive teams, has been giving up far too many scoring opportunities with each of its last five opponents hoisting up 91 or more field goal attempts. The Nets have yielded a whopping 99 field goal attempts to each of their last two opponents. On the flip side, Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in six consecutive games. Its only saving grace has been the fact that it has shot the lights out in its last two contests - something I don't expect it to do against Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors couldn't contain the Hawks fast-paced offense in Atlanta last time out but have still limited five of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, their own offense has been on an uptick despite a number of key contributors being out of the lineup, making good on 40, 44 and 48 field goals over their last three contests. Take Toronto (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Celtics | 112-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a pair of extremely tightly-contested games last season and I would expect nothing different in their first matchup this season. Boston was red hot heading into Monday's matchup with the revenge-minded Bulls in Chicago. There were warning signs, however, as the Celtics had allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. We can make that nine out of their last 11 now as Chicago knocked down 46 field goals in a convincing 121-107 victory. Now Boston will have to deal with a Dallas squad that has limited each of its last five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and will be in a foul mood off a one-point home loss against Denver on Sunday. The Mavericks have had their issues offensively but I'm confident a breakout is imminent and this looks like an ideal spot given the Celtics recent vulnerability defensively. With Boston's pace slowing over the last few games, getting off 88, 85 and 87 FG attempts over that stretch, and Dallas' tendency to lock down opposing offenses, yielding 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests, this has all the makings of a game that goes right down to the wire. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -6.5 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The absence of Chris Paul has provided some solid opportunities to back the Suns at discounted prices and I believe that's the case again on Tuesday as they host the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a prime letdown spot here after shooting the lights out in consecutive games against the Spurs and Pistons (both at home). Last time out, they actually allowed the Spurs to get off a whopping 105 field goal attempts but San Antonio couldn't take advantage, shooting an awful 39% in the loss. The Lakers aren't likely to see anything close to that level of inefficiency from the Suns here. Phoenix is really forcing the issue offensively right now, hoisting up 94+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games and making good on 43 or more field goals in four straight contests. On the flip side, I like the fact that Phoenix got back on track defensively in Sunday's win over the Knicks, holding New York to only 85 FG attempts after its previous two opponents had gotten off 91+. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-22 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these teams have shot with incredible efficiency lately, the pace just hasn't been there to dictate a posted total at this level. Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and hasn't reached 90 since back on November 4th in Washington (in a game that still totalled only 214 points). Meanwhile, the undermanned 76ers have hoisted up 79 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games and haven't attempted more than 83 field goals in any of their last six contests. While both sides have allowed their opponents' pace to tick up a little higher than they'd like in recent games, that's certainly not their M.O. and not something I expect to see continue. Note that Philadelphia has still limited seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It's a different story for Brooklyn as it has allowed three of its last four foes to knock down 43 or more field goals but it's unlikely the Sixers can take full advantage given their laundry list of current injuries. Take the under (8*). |
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11-22-22 | UMKC v. Indiana State -9.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana State minus the points over UMKC at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri-Kansas City pulled off a stunner against Toledo yesterday, winning by double-digits as a 17.5-point underdog. Toledo actually got off 16 more field goal attempts than UMKC in that contest, but couldn't make the most of its opportunities, shooting worse than 40% from the field. Speaking of poor shooting, Indiana State had an uncharacteristically-bad shooting performance against East Carolina yesterday, yet still defeated East Carolina 79-75. The experienced Sycamores have done a tremendous job of frustrating the opposition this season, allowing 20, 25, 27 and 22 made field goals while forcing at least 15 turnovers in fall four contests. Not surprisingly, they check in a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the lone pointspread defeat coming in yesterday's narrow victory over ECU. UMKC is allowing far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, yielding its first six opponents 60, 57, 64, 62, 58 and 66 field goal attempts - that despite two of those games coming against little-known schools in Lincoln (Missouri) and Calvary. Take Indiana State (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. We won with Utah the last time these two teams met a couple of weeks ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. Utah continues to afford itself plenty of scoring opportunities, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Over its last two contests it has made good on 51 and 42 field goals and should give the Clippers all they can handle here. Los Angeles obviously plays at a considerably slower pace, getting off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six contests. The Clips made good on 44 field goals in Saturday's rout of the lowly Spurs but that marked its highest total of the season. In stark contrast, Utah has eclipsed that number on five previous occasions. Take Utah (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Mercer v. Florida State -5.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Mercer at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Florida State is off to an 0-4 start both SU and ATS, experiencing some of the growing pains you might come to expect from a team returning just one starter. With that being said, I like the way this one sets up for the Seminoles as they catch Murray State coming off a home win and cover against Winthrop on Saturday. Mercer has shot 50% or better from the field in all four games to date this season but I'm willing to bet it won't keep that up. While Florida State has yet to find its shooting stroke, it had played fairly tough defense, limiting its first four opponents to 42.2% shooting. Noting that FSU is 22-10 ATS the last 32 times it has played at home off three or more consecutive losses, we'll confidently back the 'Noles here. Take Florida State (8*). |
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11-20-22 | Spurs +7 v. Lakers | 92-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have now dropped four games in a row to open this road trip so they'll be looking to salvage the finale as they stay in Los Angeles for a back-to-back against the Lakers on Sunday night. I like their chances of at least keeping things competitive. Note that San Antonio, whether game-script related or not, continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities here on this trip. Over its last three contests, San Antonio has allowed just 79, 83 and 81 field goal attempts. It's been a much different story for the Lakers defensively as they've allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up 92 or more FG attempts. Four of Los Angeles' last five opponents have made good on more than 40 field goals, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Spurs offense tonight. Despite last night's poor showing against a tough Clippers defense, the Spurs have still knocked down 43+ field goals in five of their last seven contests. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-20-22 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nets | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Grizzlies are dealing with a number of key absences for this game I believe we're seeing an overreaction from the betting marketplace as a result. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nets made good on more than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies continue to find their scoring opportunities, regardless who is in the lineup, getting off 91+ field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They should continue to do so here, noting that Brooklyn has yielded 91+ FG attempts to three consecutive opponents heading in. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 219.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday evening. Charlotte continues to roll offensively, despite having little to show for it in the win column. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in five consecutive games and now faces a forgiving Wizards defense that has allowed six of its last eight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Washington has knocked down 41+ field goals in six of its last seven games and Charlotte has certainly proven to be vulnerable defensively with five of its last seven foes making good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Spurs +8 v. Clippers | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs have lost three straight games to open this road trip but I look for them to give the Clippers all they can handle on Saturday night in Los Angeles. San Antonio has actually done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively speaking of course) on the road this season. Only once have the Spurs allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts away from home and that came in a win in Indiana back on October 21st. Meanwhile, San Antonio has been making the most of its own scoring opportunities lately, making good on 43+ field goals in five of its last six contests. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down. They've attempted 81 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games overall, making good on 34 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. Only twice in their last 11 games have they knocked down more than 41 field goals which makes covering a lofty pointspread such as this one difficult on most nights. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Wolves v. 76ers OVER 222.5 | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Minnesota's current road trip got off to a sluggish start with a 114-103 loss in Memphis but since then we've seen the T'Wolves put up 129 and 126 points in wins over the Cavs and Magic. They've actually been playing at a considerably slower pace than expected lately but I look for that pace to tick up for this one. Note that Philadelphia has been a little more forgiving defensively than usual in recent contests, yielding 88, 89, 94 and 90 field goal attempts to its last four opponents. That's worth noting as they had limited nine of their first 11 opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts this season. In that vein, the T'Wolves have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 47, 44, 40 and 42 field goals. Each of their last five opponents have hoisted up 88 or more field goal attempts. Despite playing on the second of back-to-back nights, the 76ers would appear poised to take advantage of their scoring opportunities in this matchup, noting they scored 120 and 133 points in two meetings with Minnesota last season and enter this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in three consecutive games - their longest such streak of the season to date. Take the over (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Providence and Miami at 4 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been made to look very good offensively over the last couple of games but that's had everything to do with the level of competition they've faced. Here, we'll note that neither team has allowed an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts through three games this season. We've also seen some good discipline out of both teams defensively, with Providence yielding just 10 free throw attempts per game and Miami checking in allowing 13. In what projects as a tightly-contested affair with Miami favored by just a couple of points, I'll back the 'under' in Uncasville on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any team has impressed me more offensively than the Thunder this season. After cashing with the 'over' in their most recent game - a 121-120 win in Washington two nights ago - I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five straight games heading into this contest. While they only managed to get off 81 field goal attempts in that win over the Wizards, they've still hoisted up 93+ field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have sputtered a bit offensively of late but should be able to get on track here, noting that Oklahoma City has been very forgiving defensively, allowing four of its last five opponents to make good on 44+ field goals. Five of the Thunder's last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts while the Grizzlies have eclipsed that number of attempts in six of their last seven contests so the opportunities should be there for the home side. Memphis has been all over the place defensively but I will note that three of its last six opponents have attempted more than 90 field goals - that after only three of its first nine foes got into the 90+ range. Take the over (8*). |
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11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 228.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Thunder and Wizards on Wednesday. Oklahoma City is running as free-flowing of an offense as you'll find in the NBA right now, hoisting up 102, 111, 93, 88 and 98 field goal attempts over its last five games. Better still, the Thunder have knocked down 41, 50, 52, 55 and 47 field goals over that stretch. There's little reason to expect Washington to offer much resistance as five of its last six opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts. While the Wizards haven't been pushing the pace to the same level as the Thunder, they can certainly get out and run and take advantage of the opportunities they're afforded. In that regard, they should have plenty here as the Thunder have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 93+ FG attempts with three of their last four opponents knocking down 46+ field goals. The Wiz have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five contests. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs got drilled by the Warriors in San Francisco last night but I expect them to put up more of a fight against the Blazers in Portland on Tuesday. San Antonio actually got off a whopping 100 field goal attempts in that setback. It simply couldn't make the most of its opportunities. At the same time, it did limit the Warriors to 'only' 88 field goal attempts but the Warriors shot the lights out, as they're known to do on a regular basis. Here, I don't expect San Antonio to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Blazers, who have made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of their last five contests. Portland is having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last five games. Note that this matchup favored the Spurs last season with San Antonio scoring 114, 133, 130 and 113 points while going a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four meetings. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it as the Knicks head to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz on Tuesday night, with both teams coming off losses. New York has gotten off a whopping 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its 13 games this season while Utah has done the same in 10 of its last 14 contests. The problem is neither team has offered much resistance to the opposition defensively. New York has been lit up for more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Each of Utah's last seven opponents have knocked down 40+ field goals. We saw both teams shoot poorly in last season's two meetings in this series and as a result both games stayed 'under' the total. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's no question which way I'm going with the total in this early season showdown between the Spartans and Wildcats. The 'under' has combined to go 3-1 in these two teams' first four games this season and there's little reason to anticipate a reversal of that trend here. Kentucky has been 'filling it up' through two games, knocking down 34 and 28 field goals in blowout wins over Howard and Duquesne - both at Rupp Arena no less. It isn't likely to enjoy the same type of success here, however, noting that Michigan State just got done holding Gonzaga to only 23 made field goals in a tough 64-63 loss on Friday. Speaking of that game, the Spartans could only muster 21 made field goals against the Zags and now deal with a Kentucky defense that limited its first two opponents to just 43-of-133 shooting, despite the lopsided nature of those two aforementioned contests. Noting that the 'under' is a long-term 110-79 with Michigan State playing on a neutral court and 13-2 the last 15 times Kentucky has come off a double-digit home victory, as is the case here, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |