My selection is on Pittsburgh over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

Is it time to start believing in the Pirates? They're playing some of their best baseball of the season right now and check in off a series sweep of the Mets at home. I like their chances of keeping it going on Monday as they send left-hander Andrew Heaney to the hill against Erick Fedde of the Cardinals. Heaney has gotten rocked in his last two starts but both of those came on the road. I think he can find success back at PNC Park, where he owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven starts this season. Heaney will be facing a Cardinals lineup that has had a tough time against southpaw pitching recently and doesn't travel particularly well. Fedde got lit up last time out and while he's been serviceable for the Cards this season, his 4.49 FIP and 1.36 WHIP still leave a lot to be desired. Both bullpens have been terrific lately but the Buccos' relief corps has certainly been better at home than the Cards' bullpen has been on the road. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

Athletics starter Jacob Lopez hasn't gotten enough credit for his recent stretch. He's faced the Royals, Astros and Tigers in succession and has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work and that's with two of those starts coming on the road. Given the way he's settled in, I look for the A's to hang tough at Steinbrenner Field on Monday. Drew Rasmussen has admittedly pitched well for the Rays this season. With that being said, he hasn't lasted beyond 5 1/3 innings in any of his last three starts and the Rays are just 2-2 over his last four outings when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Note that Tampa Bay's bullpen has imploded lately, sporting a 9.33 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last week - leaving the back door wide open should we need it with the insurance run in our back pocket. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Blue Jays return home off a successful series in Boston but I look for them to get tripped up in the opener of their four-game set against the Yankees on Monday. New York will send left-hander Carlos Rodon to the hill. He bounced back from a bit of a rough stretch by silencing the Reds over six innings last time out. On the season, Rodon has posted a 3.50 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while going 9-5. I like the way he matches up against the Blue Jays lineup. Max Scherzer will counter for Toronto. He didn't look good in his first start back after a long stint on the I.L. last week in Cleveland. He's been tagged for five earned runs in just eight big league innings this season and draws a tough matchup here. Neither bullpen has been particularly effective lately so we'll give the nod to the visiting Yankees with a decisive starting pitching advantage. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Seattle at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Valkyries have done nothing but impress over the course of their inaugural campaign. While they are coming off an ATS defeat, they won again, outlasting the Sky by five points on Friday. We'll call for them to give the Storm all they can handle on Sunday as well. Seattle checks in off a lopsided victory but that came at home against one of the league's worst teams in the Sun. Look for a down-to-the-wire affair on Sunday in San Francisco and we'll gladly grab all the points we can get with the underdog Valkyries. Take Golden State (8*).

My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Mets haven't been playing their best baseball by any means and come off another blowout loss at the hands of the Pirates on Saturday. In fact, they've dropped each of the first two games in this series in blowout fashion. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon, however, as they hand the ball to Frankie Montas for his second start of the season. Montas should be able to settle in as he makes his second trip to the hill after returning from the I.L. He was good but not great over five innings, not allowing an earned run last time out. I also think New York's bats can come alive against Pirates rookie starter Mike Burrows. The right-hander was effective in a relief outing most recently but in his last start he was tagged for four earned runs and two home runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Rangers. With their bullpen in good shape consider recent lopsided results, the Mets should have enough to get by the Buccos in an important turn-around spot. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with Dallas, even in a tough back-to-back situation on Saturday. The Wings dropped a close game against Indiana last night. That was a clear result of the Fever shooting the lights out. I don't expect Washington to do the same in this spot. Note that the Mystics have won a season-high three straight games SU and two in a row ATS. That includes an 'upset' victory in Las Vegas two nights ago. We'll call for a letdown here as the Wings avoid a second straight loss. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Arizona over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Diamondbacks fell just short in last night's series-opener against the Marlins in what was a wild 9-8 affair. We'll call for Arizona to bounce back on Saturday as it sends Brandon Pfaadt to the hill against Sandy Alcantara. Pfaadt is finally back home after a couple of rocky road outings. The last time we saw him pitch here in Arizona he guided the D'Backs to a 10-3 victory over the Mariners. His counterpart on Saturday will be Sandy Alcantara. The right-hander has struggled to the tune of a 4.70 FIP and 1.56 WHIP this season. While he has admittedly pitched better lately, I do think the red hot Arizona bats can get to him here. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Friday.

This will be the first ever meeting between the Sky and Valkyries and I believe the line is out of whack. Yes, Golden State has reeled off three straight ATS victories and checks in 6-1 ATS over its last seven games. I'm just not convinced the Valkyries are well-suited to a 'favorite' role at this point. Chicago comes off an 'upset' win at home against Los Angeles on Tuesday. That marked the Sky's second straight ATS victory. They still have a long way to go as they work their way back to respectability but we have seen some positive signs lately as they've knocked down 30+ field goals in three of their last four games. I think they can hang with the Valkyries here. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Arizona over Miami at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is quietly enjoying a career year in some respects. He's 7-3 with a 3.31 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. In fact, he's been one of baseball's winning-est starting pitchers in recent years, sporting a 37-20 record going back to the start of 2022. The Marlins are coming off a tremendous series in San Francisco but I think they're in a tough spot with Eury Perez making his fourth start of the campaign on Friday. Perez has logged a solid 2.99 FIP but a lofty 1.63 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings of work this season. The fact that he's kept the ball in the park has been a positive but I don't think that's sustainable (he allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings in 91 1/3 innings last season). The D'Backs bullpen has quietly turned things around lately, posting a collective 1.37 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

I like the way the opener of this series sets up for the Cubs as they look to cool off the red hot Astros. Chicago will send Cade Horton to the hill on Friday. The former first round draft pick has logged a 3-1 record to go along with a 3.78 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in eight appearances so far this season - certainly admirable numbers for a rookie pitcher. He'll face a fellow rookie in Astros starter Brandon Walter. Walter was a 26th round draft pick by the Red Sox back in 2019. He did have a cup of coffee at the big league level with Boston back in 2023 but prior to this season, that's been it. Here in 2025, Walter has posted a 3.67 FIP and 1.10 WHIP but is winless in four starts. I think this is a tough spot for the left-hander with Chicago ranked second in wOBA and first in ISO over the last week. Look for the Cubs to take the series-opener. Take Chicago (8*).

East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Alouettes have jumped out to a 3-0 start and will play their third straight road game on Friday in Hamilton. I think we can count on some regression from the Als offense in this one after they scored 39 and 38 points in their last two games. Note that the Tiger-Cats have had an extra week to prepare for this contest thanks to an early season bye week. Hamilton is off to an 0-2 start so it will be desperately trying to turn things around here. I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Ti-Cats offense against what has been a terrific Als defense. Montreal did allow 22 points in the fourth quarter against Edmonton last week, although two touchdowns came after the game was all but out of reach. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

With the uncertainty surrounding Caitlin Clark's injury status and both teams coming off 'under' results, we're working with a reasonably low total in Friday's clash in Dallas. We'll back the 'over' as I like Indiana's chances of bouncing back following last night's 'upset' home loss against Los Angeles but also question whether the Fever can turn things around defensively having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on 29 or more field goals. Dallas has drawn a favorable schedule lately in terms of offensively capable opponents and has thrived defensively as a result. I do think the Wings are in for a challenge here, however, as these two teams meet for the first time this season. Take the over (8*).

West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Elks as they look to turn things around against the undefeated Blue Bombers on Thursday. Edmonton is off to an 0-2 start but has faced a tough schedule, travelling to face B.C. in its season-opener before hosting undefeated Montreal last week. Winnipeg was expected to take a bit of a step back this season following an incredible run of dominance in the West. Instead, the Bombers are off to a perfect 2-0 start. While they're well-positioned to improve to 3-0 here, I'm not convinced we'll see them win by margin. The Elks showed plenty of fight in the second half last week against the Alouettes, scoring 22 points in the fourth quarter alone. This is a team that I still believe has a lot of upside after a strong finish last season. For the Bombers, this sets up as a letdown spot off last Saturday's lopsided victory in B.C. We'll grab the points. Take Edmonton (10*).

My selection is on New York over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. 

I think last night's blowout win by the Mets can serve as a building block as we head into the end of June. Griffin Canning starts for New York on Thursday. He drew a tough assignment against the Phillies in Philadelphia last Saturday night and after a shaky first couple of innings he held his club in the game long enough to secure an 'upset' win. Here, he'll face a middling Braves lineup and I look for him to find some success. Grant Holmes will take the ball for Atlanta. While he got off to a solid start this season his FIP has now risen to 4.42 and his WHIP to 1.22 - both numbers are higher than what he posted a year ago. The Mets are quietly coming around at the plate, ranking seventh in the majors in isolated power over the last week. Look for New York to secure a second straight win. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Indiana at 7 pm et on Thursday.

I like the way this game sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected as the Sparks look to snap their four-game losing streak and the Fever return home on just one day of rest following a three-game western road swing. While Indiana's offense has come around, even with Caitlin Clark mired in a shooting slump, its defense needs to right the ship in order to continue to win games. This is a fine bounce-back spot in that regard as they look to slow what has been an uneven Sparks offense. Los Angeles did knock down 32 field goals in a loss to Chicago two nights ago but had been held to 24 or less made field goals in three straight games prior to that. Los Angeles is in desperate need of a defensive turnaround having allowed four straight opponents to knock down 30+ field goals. I do think this is a favorable spot given the Fever's quick turnaround following a road trip. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Phillies will be looking to avoid the series sweep in Houston on Thursday afternoon and I think we're getting a terrific price to back them. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for Philadelphia. He brings excellent form into this start and has posted a 3.14 FIP and 1.19 WHIP in 15 outings this season. While the Astros have been outstanding against left-handed pitching, Sanchez has certainly vaulted himself into the 'elite' southpaw category and I think he can navigate the tricky waters well on Thursday. Hunter Brown will counter for Houston. He's also having a fantastic season but has wavered a bit lately, working 5 1/3 innings or less in two of his last three starts. Last time out he threw just 48-of-87 pitches for strikes in a narrow 3-2 extra innings win over the Angels. The price is right to take a flyer on the underdog Phillies in this spot. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Liberty opened their current road trip with an 89-79 loss in Seattle on Sunday, perhaps caught flat-footed after Sabrina Ionescu was a late scratch for that contest. That marked the Liberty's second straight defeat SU and fourth in a row ATS. I look for them to end their slide on Wednesday as they head to San Francisco to take on the Valkyries. Keep in mind, New York is already 2-0 against Golden State this season, winning back-to-back games at home back in late May. The Valkyries were competitive in the second of those contests but only after losing the first by 28 points. Golden State enters this game riding a two-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The opposition has shot incredibly poorly against the Valkyries but they'll undoubtedly have their hands full against one of the league's best offensive teams on Wednesday. Look for the Liberty to bounce back in convincing fashion. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I look for them to give the Giants all they can handle again on Wednesday. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to back San Francisco with its ace Logan Webb on the mound. As good as Webb has been this season, the Giants have won just one of his last six starts by more than a single run. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera held a tough Phillies lineup to just one earned run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings last time out and the Marlins are 6-4 in his last 10 outings with all four of those losses coming by a single run. In what projects as a low-scoring affair and with the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll grab the insurance run with the visiting Marlins. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Tuesday. 

The Fever have dropped their last two games SU and three in a row ATS entering Tuesday's contest in Seattle. We'll call for Indiana to bounce back in this spot after opening its current road trip with back-to-back defeats. Seattle is in a fairly obvious letdown situation after three straight wins and covers including an impressive 89-79 home win over the Liberty - arguably the league's best team - on Sunday. I like the fact that the Fever offense did get on track even in a losing effort in Las Vegas on Sunday (they shot 34-of-70 from the field). Here, it will be up to Indiana's defense to pick it up, noting that it comes off consecutive games in which it allowed 30+ made field goals. The last two times that has happened, the Fever have responded favorably in their next game, winning by 27 points in Chicago and 17 points at home against Connecticut. Seattle has made good on 30+ field goals in three straight games. The only other time that happened this season it went on to lose its next game 76-70 in 'upset' fashion at Golden State. Take Indiana (10*).

My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Nationals last night and I'll come right back with them on Tuesday as well. Washington was in a major slump at this time last week but has since turned it around to some extent, going 3-2 over its last five games. Trevor Williams will take the ball on Tuesday. He's been better than his 5.54 ERA indicates, logging a 3.72 FIP this season. Rookie Ryan Bergert will counter for San Diego. He's been effective but certainly isn't a candidate to work deep into a ball game and the concern here is that the Padres bullpen has really struggled lately, logging a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over the last week. They were forced to use four different relievers in last night's contest. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Colorado over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm not convinced the Dodgers are a 'sure thing' on Tuesday as they travel to Denver to open a series with the Rockies. Los Angeles has yet to name a starter for this contest as it continues to deal with a depleted pitching staff. One thing we know is that the Dodgers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has certainly struggled lately, posting a 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last week. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. His overall numbers aren't good but he does bring solid form into this start having allowed just one earned run over his last two outings, covering a span of 10 2/3 innings. The price is right to take a shot with the Rockies, noting that they're a not-so-awful 9-10 over their last 19 games and will look to win their second in a row here. Take Colorado (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Mystics at home against the Lynx on Tuesday. Minnesota comes off three straight wins both SU and ATS but all three of those victories came at home and two of them came against one of the league's most disappointing teams, the Los Angeles Sparks. While the Lynx have played well defensively, they do give up their share of opportunities and I'm confident Washington can take advantage. Note that the Mystics have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. They've been one of the league's better bets lately, going 4-2 ATS over their last six contests but do check in off an ATS loss (but SU victory) against Dallas on Sunday. Note that the Mystics have dropped the cash in consecutive games just once this season with that two-game ATS skid coming back in late May-early June. Meanwhile, Minnesota is entering uncharted territory as it rides a season-high three-game ATS winning streak. I think the Lynx are laying too many points in this spot. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Pirates took the opener of this series last night and have now won consecutive games. I like their chances of stringing together a third straight victory on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney takes the ball for Pittsburgh. He's coming off a rough outing in Detroit last week but had been pitching well prior to that. I still think there's plenty of upside with the veteran left-hander as he has posted a 1.19 WHIP in 82 1/3 innings of work this season and faces a Brewers team that has been streaky at the plate this season. Freddy Peralta counters for Milwaukee. The Brewers have won his last two starts but both of those victories came by a single run and prior to that they had lost two in a row with Peralta on the mound. With the Milwaukee bullpen struggling right now (5.16 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last week), we'll take a flyer with the upset-minded Pirates on Tuesday. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals suffered a 13-7 loss in Los Angeles yesterday but are an even 2-2 over their last four games to regain their footing following a long losing streak. They'll look to rebound on Monday as they send Mitchell Parker to the mound against a yet-to-be decided on starter for the Padres. I think we'll see Parker find some success in this matchup. He's coming off a fine outing against the Rockies last week, allowing just one earned run over six innings. In fact, Parker has worked six innings while allowing one earned run or less in two of his last three trips to the hill. Here, he'll face a Padres club that ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average and 24th in isolated power against left-handed pitching this season. Yes, the Nats' bullpen has struggled lately and as a whole this season. However, the Padres 'pen has also had a tough time over the last week, posting a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. I don't believe the lofty price for the visitors is warranted given the matchup. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Cubs on Monday as they send Ben Brown to the hill against Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals. While Chicago checks in ranked third in the majors in weighted on base average and first in isolated power over the last seven days, St. Louis is 14th and 19th, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. The pitching matchup could be considered a wash but we can make the case for Cubs right-hander Brown having more upside than Cards' lefty Liberatore. Of note, the Cubs rank sixth in the majors in wOBA and third in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Take Chicago (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas over Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Monday.

We faded the Rangers in their loss in Pittsburgh yesterday but we'll quickly switch gears and back them as they open a series in Baltimore on Monday. The Orioles continue to limp along off another losing series, this one at the hands of the division rival Yankees. Baltimore led Sunday's game most of the way but couldn't make it stand up in an eventual 4-2 loss. The O's return home to the Baltimore heat (game time temperature is expected to eclipse 100 degrees) and I look for them to struggle. Patrick Corbin takes the ball for the Rangers. It's notable that they're sending a left-hander to the mound as Baltimore ranks last in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power against southpaw pitching this season. Behind Corbin is a Rangers bullpen that continues to pitch well having logged a 3.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last week. While the Texas offense has disappointed this season, I think this is a series where it can find some success against a struggling O's pitching staff. Note that Baltimore's bullpen checks in sporting a 4.13 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last week, logging 28 1/3 innings without a single day off over that stretch. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We were talking about totals in the high-220's to open this series but will not surprisingly see the lowest posted total of the series so far in Sunday's seventh-and-deciding game. We already know what the Thunder are capable of offensively, particularly at home where they've gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts in two of three games in this series, scoring 120+ points on both of those occasions. The honus will be on the Pacers to contribute enough offensively to push this one 'over' the total and I'm confident they can. Game 6 served as somewhat of a breakthrough performance for Indiana offensively as it got off 92 field goal attempts - its highest volume of the series by far (its previous high was 85 in Game 3). While Game 7's often take on a defensive tone, I think this game ultimately amounts to the Thunder jumping ahead and forcing the Pacers to speed up in catch-up mode most of the way. Take the over (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

This series has been all about adjustments with the only time a team managed to post consecutive wins (and covers) coming in Games 4 and 5 from the Thunder. The Pacers forced this seventh-and-deciding game in a contest that was never in doubt in Game 6, delivering a 108-91 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday as the Thunder rebound and deliver a decisive victory of their own to clinch their first NBA title. Note that the Thunder, despite losing Game 6 in blowout fashion, have held the Pacers to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of six games in this series. In fact, Oklahoma City has limited an incredible 20 of its last 24 opponents to 40 made field goals or less. We've already seen the Thunder get loose offensively at home, hoisting up 94 or more field goal attempts in two of three games on this floor in this series (winning two of those games by double-digits). The Pacers used up a lot of what they had in the tank in an emotional Game 6 victory at home and I look for them to fall well short in their upset bid on Sunday night. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Mets last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday night. New York had to feel good about that victory as it displayed plenty of power in an eventual 11-4 victory. I like the way this matchup sets up as well with David Peterson taking the ball for New York against Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies in a matchup of left-handed starter. Interestingly, Peterson has yet to be on the mound for consecutive Mets defeats this season. They've gone 9-5 in his 14 starts including a win over these same Phillies back in April. Luzardo has lasted five innings or less in three of his last four starts and was tagged for four earned runs in an 8-3 loss to the Marlins last time out. The Phillies bullpen is in a lull right now as well, having posted a 6.65 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last week. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on New York moneyline over Seattle at 7 pm et on Sunday.

We'll back the Liberty on the moneyline on Sunday as they look to rebound following an 'upset' loss at home against the Mercury. While I do like New York to win this game, we're taking the moneyline route as we've already seen that it has a knack for winning SU but failing to cover ATS. Note that the Liberty have posted four such wins this season. The Storm are certainly a capable foe having won five of their last six games. This is a tough spot, however, returning home from a successful three-game road trip that saw them win their last two games SU and ATS (against inferior opponents to the one they'll face on Sunday). Take New York moneyline (8*).

N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The presence of Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Dodgers helps keep this total lower than it probably should be. The Nationals picked up a victory to even this series at a game apiece last night. Washington ranks fourth in the majors in isolated power over the last week while the Dodgers sit just three spots behind in seventh. Ohtani doesn't figure to work deep into this ball game as the Dodgers continue to ease him back into the starting rotation. Of note, the Los Angeles bullpen has been anything but lights out lately, logging a 4.96 ERA over the last week. Michael Soroka starts for the Nationals on Sunday. He's been as wild as it gets, issuing five walks and hitting four batters while also getting tagged for four home runs over his last two starts, spanning just 11 innings. On the campaign, Soroka owns a lofty 4.92 FIP and gives up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. Behind Soroka is a Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 5.32 ERA over the last week. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over Texas at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

This has been a rather uneventful series so far with the Rangers winning the first two games in relatively low-scoring fashion. I think the Pirates can answer back in Sunday's series finale as they send Bailey Falter to the hill against Jack Leiter. Falter has been good but certainly not great this season with a 4.29 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He does check in sporting a winning record at 5-3 and the bullpen behind him has been effective at home this season with a 4.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP to go along with 10 saves converted and only four blown. Jack Leiter got off to a strong start for the Rangers this season but has since fallen off, allowing 10 earned runs on 13 hits including four home runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 9 2/3 innings. While the Rangers bullpen has been solid lately, it has had a bit of a tough time closing out games on the road this season with just six saves converted and five blown. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the 'over' as the Sparks and Lynx meet for the third time this season on Saturday in Minnesota. The 'over' has already cashed in the first two matchups between these two teams and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday. The Sparks have played 'matador-like' defense this season and have gotten even worse lately, allowing four of their last five opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals and their last two to connect on a whopping 41 and 39 field goals, respectively. Offensively, Los Angeles will need to rebound here after making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in Tuesday's 98-67 loss at home against Seattle. While the Lynx are a terrific defensive team, I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order considering they've already defeated the Sparks by double-digits twice this season and check in off consecutive wins (and covers) at home. Despite the recent lopsided victories, the Lynx have kept their foot on the gas, hoisting up 72 and 76 field goal attempts in those two contests. There's little reason to believe the Sparks defense can serve as a speedbump here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Mets have lost seven games in a row following last night's 10-2 thrashing at the hands of the Phillies. Their pitching staff has really struggled lately but I think Griffin Canning can give them a quality start on Saturday while I do expect the Mets bats to come to life against Phillies rookie Mick Abel. Abel has made just one start at Citizens Bank Park this season and he was lit up for three home runs in an 8-4 loss to the Cubs. The Mets are a sleeping giant offensively right now and I think this as as good of a spot as any for them to wake up and end their lengthy skid. We know Canning is capable of turning in a quality outing as we saw him hold the Dodgers to just three hits over six shutout innings in his most recent road start on June 4th. The Mets have won two of his last three trips to the hill. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We saw 54 total points in this same matchup last week as the Blue Bombers offense thrived in a blowout win over the Lions. B.C. will be forced to hand the keys to the offense over to QB Jeremiah Masoli after Nathan Rourke suffered an injury. I fully expect the Lions to scale back their offensive playbook as a result and perhaps lean on their defense to keep this game competitive on Saturday. Having seen the Bombers offense led by Chris Streveler just last week, the Lions will need to make defensive adjustments here. Whether it is enough to secure a bounce-back win remains to be seen, but I do think we'll see a lower-scoring affair than we witnessed last week. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 4 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams are headed in opposite directions right now with the Redblacks sitting at 0-2 and the Stampeders at 2-0. Optimism was running high in Ottawa ahead of the 2025 campaign with QB Dru Brown set to lead the offense to new heights. So far, not so good as Brown is hurt (Dustin Crum will start on Saturday) and the offense could muster only 18 points in last week's blowout loss to Montreal in its home opener. Calgary was projected by most to pull up the rear in the CFL and while that could still turn out to be the case, there's no denying the Stampeders have looked good on both sides of the football through two weeks of the season. Calgary went on the road and held the defending champion Argonauts to just 19 points in last week's victory. That performance looks even better after Toronto put up 32 points in last night's narrow defeat against Saskatchewan. The last meeting between these teams produced 60 points last August but I expect nothing of the sort on Saturday at McMahon Stadium. Take the under (8*).

N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

The weather forecast is playing a big role in this total sitting at 9, with temperatures expected to hover in the 90's along with a breeze blowing out to left-center. While weather is always something to consider, I don't expect it to be the deciding factor in terms of the total on Saturday afternoon. The Reds will turn to Brent Suter in an 'opener' role in this one. While Cincinnati's bullpen hasn't been great this season, it hasn't been a train-wreck either, sporting a 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown on the road. The Reds will need a strong pitching performance here in an effort to keep this game competitive because I don't anticipate them scoring a ton of runs off Sonny Gray and the Cardinals pitching staff. Gray comes off arguably his worst start of the campaign as he allowed six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Milwaukee last time out (that game actually totalled just six runs). Gray's last four outings have resulted in totals of 7, 2, 5 and 6 runs. Prior to his last start, Gray had tossed 13 1/3 shutout innings over his last two outings. Note that the Reds have produced only 33 runs in 11 division road games this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have produced just 143 runs and 31 home runs in 36 afternoon affairs here in 2025. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Orioles have put together back-to-back wins including an 'upset' victory against Max Fried and the Yankees last night. I expect to see their mini-streak come to an end on Saturday afternoon, however. Baltimore will send Zach Eflin to the mound. He was tagged for seven earned runs on 12 hits over five innings against the Rays last time out. He's now been lit up for multiple home runs in half of his last six starts. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is in terrific form right now having allowed just six hits over 13 2/3 shutout innings over his last two starts. In line with his numbers from an injury-shortened 2024 campaign, Schmidt has posted a 3.55 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 11 outings this season. The bullpen matchup should go New York's way as well as it has logged a 1.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last week while Baltimore has posted a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the same stretch. Take New York (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Chicago at 1 pm et on Saturday.

The Mercury stretched their winning streak to four games with a stunning 'upset' victory in New York two nights ago. That also marked their second straight 'over' result. We'll call for a change of pace here and back the 'under' as Phoenix wraps up its four-game road trip in Chicago. While the Mercury did put up 89 points in Thursday's victory, it actually shot just under 42% from the field. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Phoenix connected on more than 30 field goals. While Chicago has been one of the league's worst teams this season, it has played better defense of late, holding two straight and four of its last six foes to fewer than 30 made field goals. The Sky offense remains a mess. Yes, they knocked down 30 field goals in a home loss to the Mystics last time out but they haven't eclipsed that number since May 29th against Dallas. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in each of Chicago's last five games, a streak I expect to see continue here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Friday as they look to bounce back following last night's extra innings defeat against the Athletics in Sacramento. That was an up-and-down series for Houston but I look for it to settle in on Friday night in Anaheim. The pitching matchup favors the Astros heavily with Hunter Brown taking the ball against Yusei Kikuchi. Brown has been terrific this season, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has been all over the place with a 3.05 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. Houston has absolutely torched southpaw pitching this season and I think it does more than enough to cover the run-line in this spot. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Rockies in the opener of this N.L. West series on Friday. The case can be made that the Rockies are playing better than the Diamondbacks right now. Off a winning series in Washington and off a hard-fought extra innings loss in yesterday's series finale, we'll call for Colorado to rebound at home on Friday. Zac Gallen has not been good for the D'Backs this season, posting a 4.90 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while going 4-8 in 15 starts. Behind him is an Arizona bullpen that has been even worse than Colorado's, including of late as it has logged a 7.84 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Austin Gomber gets the start for the Rockies. He had a productive season debut last week, going five shutout innings of two-hit ball. Look for a competitive affair on Friday at Coors Field. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Twins offense exploded in yesterday's rout of the Reds to avoid the sweep in Cincinnati. We'll look for their bats to cool off on Friday as they return home to pitcher-friendly Target Field to take on the Brewers. Rookie Jacob Misiorowski will take the ball for Milwaukee. He had a nice big league debut as he allowed four walks but no hits over five shutout innings. I think he can build off that performance here in his first road start. The Twins will hand the ball to Joe Ryan. He had a rough outing against the Blue Jays two starts back but rebounded nicely against the Astros last time out, allowing just two hits and needing only 93 pitches to get through seven innings in a low-scoring 3-2 defeat at home. This is a favorable matchup for Ryan at home as he challenges a middling Brewers offense. Look for the starters to perform well and the bullpens to take care of the rest in this interleague affair. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Rays check in off a 4-1 'upset' loss at home against the Orioles last night. I look for them to bounce back on Friday as they open a series against the Tigers. Shane Baz will take the ball for Tampa Bay. The Rays have won each of his last five starts and I think they're well-positioned to stretch that streak to six games here. I do think Baz is a better pitcher than his 4.77 FIP indicates. He was terrific last time out as he scattered just three hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 9-0 rout of the Mets. We know he's a long-term winner at the major league level, with a career 13-8 record across four big league campaigns. Jack Flaherty counters for Detroit. He had his string of strong outings stopped in an 11-1 rout, at home no less, against the Reds last time out. He was tagged for seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in that contest. The Tigers are just 2-4 in his six road starts this season including a one-run victory in Toronto and another win over the lowly White Sox. With the bullpen advantage going to the Rays (1.69 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last week), we'll confidently back the home side here. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Sun have done a nice job covering the spread in consecutive games against Indiana and Phoenix but I look for them to fall short against the Wings on Friday. Keep in mind, Dallas took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 22 points on this same floor back on May 27th. Dallas enters this contest playing well, off back-to-back ATS victories and having connected on 29 or more field goals in five of its last six games. That's a far cry from Connecticut which has made good on 26 or fewer field goals in four straight games. The Sun were fortunate that the Mercury had an off shooting night last time out but they still lost that game by eight points at home. You have to figure the Sun have one eye on a long road trip that begins on Sunday against Golden State. We'll lay the points with the visiting Wings. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Roughriders will try to improve to 3-0 on the season as they head to Toronto to take on the winless Argonauts on Friday. I like Toronto's chances of avoiding an 0-3 hole as it stays home for a second straight week. Winning consecutive games on the road in the CFL isn't easy, especially for what I consider to be a middle-of-the-pack Roughriders squad playing on a short week (off a win in Hamilton on Saturday). Toronto did show some positive signs offensively in last week's loss to Calgary. The defense is sure to enter this game with a chip on its shoulder against revenge-minded Saskatchewan RB and former Argos teammate Ka'Deem Carey. He felt he was wrongly cut by the team in the offseason and has been vocal about it leading up to this game. I look for the Argos defense to come up with a statement performance here as they bounce back before a long week ahead of next Sunday's stop in Ottawa. Take Toronto (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Mets are reeling right now and there's really no end in sight with this difficult series in Philadelphia followed by another series against the Braves, who just handled them easily. New York is in another tough spot on Friday as it goes up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Since a rough outing at home against the Braves on May 29th, he's settled down, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits while striking out 16 and walking just one in 12 innings over his last two starts. On the season, Wheeler owns Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.76 FIP and 0.89 WHIP. New York will turn to Blade Tidwell for his second start. His first one didn't go well at all as he was lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. New York has precious few options on the mound right now noting that its bullpen has also struggled to the tune of a 5.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last week. Phillies roll. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday.

I expect the Fever to have their way offensively with the expansion Valkyries as these two teams meet for the first time on Thursday night. With that being said, Golden State doesn't figure to roll over in this underdog spot. The Valkyries had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 80-71 loss in Dallas two nights ago but should rebound with a good effort here. Consider that three of Golden State's best offensive performances of the season have come in its last four contests. In its last two home games it staged upset wins over Las Vegas and Seattle, knocking down 34-of-71 field goals against the Aces and 28-of-58 against the Storm. The Fever did hold a bad Connecticut offense in check last time out but I'm not sure a repeat performance can be counted on away from home on Thursday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Montreal at 9 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the points with the Elks as they look to bounce back from a season-opening loss in B.C. Edmonton is coming off its bye week, obviously not an ideal point of the season to get a week off but perhaps it helped work out some kinks from that setback in Week 1. Keep in mind, the Elks were in control of that season-opener in B.C. until the Lions took over in the second half. Montreal delivered its second straight SU and ATS victory to open the campaign, rolling to a 39-18 win in Ottawa last week. I expect the Alouettes to have a tough time matching the Elks intensity level here as Edmonton knows that it needs a victory to avoid a possible 0-3 start with a difficult trip to Winnipeg on deck next week. These two teams met twice last season with both of those games being decided by four points or less and neither team scoring more than 23 points in either contest. Expect a similar 'down-to-the-wire' affair on Thursday. Take Edmonton (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 of this series really had no business getting 'over' the total but thankfully a second half scoring explosion helped it along to cash our ticket. We'll go the other way in Game 6 on Thursday as the Pacers look to stave off elimination, perhaps without the services of star Tyrese Haliburton. If ever there were a spot for Indiana to make a game as ugly as possible, this would be it. We know they're capable of doing just that as we've seen it throughout the playoffs as they've employed a very physical brand of basketball. They can ill afford to allow the Thunder to get off 90+ field goal attempts again as they did in Game 5. Of note, the Pacers have held the Thunder to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games in this series. In fact, Indiana has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma City has been even better in that regard, limiting Indiana to less than 40 made field goals in four of five games in this series. Better yet, the Thunder have allowed 40 or fewer made field goals in 19 of their last 23 contests. You would have to go back eight games to find OKC allowing an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

This has been a back-and-forth series so far with the Rays most recently rallying from an early 8-0 deficit to take last night's contest in what was a wild affair at Steinbrenner Field. We'll call for the Orioles to bounce back on Thursday and will grab the insurance run at a reasonable price. Charlie Morton takes the ball for Baltimore. He's settled down since returning to the starting rotation, allowing just six earned runs in 20 innings of work. Of those six earned runs, four of them came in a start against the Athletics at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Of note, Morton has allowed just one home run in his last four outings. Drew Rasmussen got off to a red hot start for the Rays this season but has shown some possible signs of regression over his last two starts. Last time out he lasted only five innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs, against the Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Now he starts on short rest (four days) against an Orioles lineup that has shown some life lately. While the O's bullpen is usually a concern, they have held up reasonably well lately, sporting a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

This has been an incredibly low-scoring series so far as the Nationals continue their June swoon. I look for that to change on Thursday afternoon. The forecast calls for temperatures approaching 90 degrees along with a fairly strong breeze blowing out to right-center at Nationals Park. The conditions are ripe for a slugfest between these two National League clubs. Note that Rockies rookie Chase Dollander already faced the Nats once this season. He was chased after four innings in that game as he gave up nine runs, six of them earned in a wild 12-11 loss. The table is set for late runs in this contest as well with the Rockies bullpen having posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last week and the Nats' countering with a 7.03 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres at a reasonable price on Wednesday night in Los Angeles. Stephen Kolek will start for San Diego. He's had a rocky season so far, logging a 4.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP across eight starts. With that being said, he has held the opposition to just under 3.9 runs per nine innings and while the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns terrific overall numbers and has been pressed into duty for just 19 1/3 innings over the last week so the arms should be relatively fresh for this one. The Dodgers will give Emmet Sheehan his first start of the season after he missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery. Sheehan delivered mixed results in his rookie season in 2023 and draws a tough first assignment against a Padres club that will be desperate to bounce back following consecutive defeats to open this series. While the Dodgers bullpen behind Sheehan has been good, it has also worked nearly 30 innings over the last week so fatigue could become an issue in the coming days. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Cleveland at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants let us down last night as their offense, or lack thereof, spoiled a fine effort from their pitching staff. I expect them to bounce back on Wednesday as they welcome Justin Verlander back to the mound against Logan Allen of the Guardians. While Verlander has been up-and-down when healthy, he still checks in allowing fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to Allen. Both bullpens have had their share of struggles lately but we're willing to bet on the Giants relief corps rebounding at home, where they've posted a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season. The Guardians 'pen owns a 3.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Look for the Giants to get back on track and snap their three-game slide in this spot. Take San Francisco (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Guardians held on for a 3-2 victory. Look for more offensive fireworks in Wednesday's contest as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup with Logan Allen going for the Guardians against Justin Verlander, just returning from injury, for the Giants. It looks like an ideal night for baseball at Oracle Park with clear skies and the wind blowing out directly to center. Of note, the Giants rank top-five in baseball in weighted on base average over the last seven days and only got stronger with the acquisition of Rafael Devers from Boston on Sunday. Devers contributed an RBI double in last night's contest. Take the over (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

After dropping the first two games of this series and mired in an incredible hitting slump, I look for the Yankees to bounce back in a big way on Wednesday. Jack Kochanowicz gets the start for the Angels. He checks in sporting a lofty 5.62 FIP And 1.59 WHIP. Note that New York is top three in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Ryan Yarbrough counters for New York. He sports a 4.39 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and has allowed 2.5 fewer hits and 1.1 fewer walks per nine innings while also striking out 2.0 more batters compared to Kochanowicz. Of note, the Angels rank next-to-last in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees bullpen having posted a 0.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week, we'll confidently lay the extra run with New York in this spot. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Cleveland at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Giants starter Robbie Ray is coming off a rare shaky outing against the Rockies last time out but we'll call for him to bounce back on Tuesday as San Francisco opens a series against Cleveland. Ray owns a 2.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP on the season, holding opponents to just under 2.8 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Slade Cecconi of the Guardians. He was the big piece coming back in the Josh Naylor trade with Arizona in the offseason but has only showed flashes of brilliance so far. Cecconi has posted a 5.00 FIP and 1.34 WHIP in five starts this season. While the Giants bullpen has struggled lately, a day off on Monday and a return home should help its cause. Note that San Francisco relievers have combined to record a 2.43 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 10 saves converted and five blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Florida at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 5 of this series had no business getting 'over' the total but for the fifth straight time in this series, it did, and now the Oilers are on the brink of falling short of their goal once again, down 3-2 in the series against the defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers. We'll call for a lower-scoring contest (finally) in Game 6 on Tuesday. Note that Edmonton has allowed fewer goals per game, albeit slightly, on the road compared to at home this season while also producing fewer gpg. Oddly enough it's the same story for the Panthers at home. Edmonton is in uncharted territory right now as it comes off six straight 'over' results - it's longest such streak of the season (it's previous high was five and that was followed by a five-game 'under' streak). The Panthers have also seen six straight games go 'over' the total and that matches their longest streak of the campaign. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Edmonton +1.5 goals over Florida at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The pressure was squarely on the Oilers shoulders in Game 5 of this series at home on Saturday and they fell short by a 5-2 score. That game was a little closer than the final score indicated and I'm confident we'll see Edmonton throw everything it's got at Florida facing elimination in Game 6 on Tuesday in Sunrise. Note that the Oilers are 30-20-2 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 0.2 goals per game on average. Of note, three of the five games in this series have been decided by a single goal and we've yet to see consecutive games be decided by 2+ goals. I expect that trend to continue here with the Oilers bouncing back. Take Edmonton +1.5 goals (8*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Royals are reeling right now, fresh off consecutive series sweeps at home against the Yankees and Athletics. They'll hit the road on Tuesday as they open a series against the Rangers in Texas. That doesn't bode particularly well for their struggling offense as the Rangers pitching staff has been terrific this season. Jack Leiter takes the ball for Texas on Tuesday. He owns a 4.47 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but has limited the damage, allowing less than 3.9 runs per nine innings. Behind Leiter is a Rangers bullpen that has been lights out lately, logging a collective 2.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last week. Kansas City will pin its hopes on starter Seth Lugo. The veteran right-hander has posted a pedestrian 4.78 FIP to go along with a more respectable 1.15 WHIP and like Leiter, has worked in and out of some trouble, holding opponents to just over 3.4 runs per nine innings. The Rangers bats have been relatively quiet for the most part this season so this could be a positive spot for Lugo. Kansas City's bullpen owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last week but can't shoulder all of the blame as the Royals bats have done next-to-nothing. On the season, the Royals 'pen has posted a 3.18 ERA on the road with nine saves converted and only three blown. Both teams check in off an off day on Monday so it should be 'all hands on deck' in the later stages of this one. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

This is a tricky spot for the Fever as they come off a big revenge-fuelled 'upset' win at home against the Liberty on Saturday - in a game where they welcomed Caitlin Clark and Sophia Cunningham back to the lineup - and look ahead to a three-game road trip out west that begins on Thursday at Golden State. Connecticut is coming off an 'upset' defeat at home against Chicago on Sunday. The Sun had been playing better prior to their current two-game slide as they were 2-1 SU and ATS in their three previous contests including an outright win here in Indiana as double-digit underdogs on May 30th. Of note, while Indiana got a major boost offensively with the return of Clark on Saturday, the Fever have actually struggled defensively in recent games, allowing five of their last six opponents to knock down 30+ field goals. That opens the door for a closer-than-expected affair on Tuesday. Take Connecticut (8*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The Liberty got caught flat-footed in the second half against the Fever on Saturday and paid the price in a 102-88 'upset' loss. We'll call for the defending champions to bounce back as they return home to host the red hot Dream on Tuesday. Atlanta has reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS but those came at home against an Indiana team without Caitlin Clark, the lowly Chicago Sky and on the road against a reeling Mystics squad. Here, Atlanta makes the trip to New York for a 'measuring stick' game against one of, if not the league's best team. Despite the loss on Saturday, New York continues to perform well offensively, connecting on 30+ field goals in three of its last four games. Note that the Liberty had held six straight and eight of nine opponents this season to fewer than 30 made field goals before yielding 37 in Saturday's setback. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'under' cash in the last two games in this series but I think a change of scenery back to Oklahoma City will lead to a more up-tempo affair in Game 5 on Monday. Keep in mind, the Thunder got off a whopping 98 field goal attempts in their narrow Game 1 loss here at home. The next game in OKC went 'over' the total with the Thunder winning in lopsided fashion. We've seen the pace bog down a little bit over the last two games. The Pacers, for as much as they'd like to turn this into a slugfest, have only had mixed results in doing so in this series. Here, I think Indiana knows it is going to need to get loose offensively to have any chance at pushing OKC to the brink of elimination in Game 6. We haven't seen three straight Pacers games stay 'under' the total since March. Meanwhile, the Thunder haven't posted three straight 'under' results since the second round against Denver. Take the over (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Phillies on Monday as they look to build off a series sweep of the Blue Jays over the weekend. Mick Abel will take the ball for Philadelphia on Monday. He's made three starts to mixed results, logging a 4.38 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. The good news is he's held opponents to just over 2.3 runs per nine innings. Sandy Alcantara continues to slog through a tough 2025 campaign for the Marlins. He owns a 4.71 FIP and 1.49 WHIP and has allowed well north of seven runs per nine innings. Entering yesterday's action, the Phillies bullpen had posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last week while the Marlins 'pen owned a 6.48 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I don't see any considerable advantage for the Dodgers in this matchup, not enough to warrant such a reasonable price to grab an insurance run with the visiting Giants. San Francisco will be looking to bounce back from last night's beatdown and I look for them to at the very least take this one down to the final at-bat. Kyle Harrison starts for the Giants against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Their numbers have been almost identical this season although Harrison has allowed slightly fewer hits and walks per nine innings while also striking out 0.9 more batters per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash in terms of recent form and the Giants relief corps has been significantly better on the road than the Dodgers 'pen has been at home this season. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Las Vegas at 6 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter this game riding three-game 'over' streaks but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Sunday. Las Vegas has been one of the league's worst offensive teams this season and A'ja Wilson remains questionable to play on Sunday as she works through concussion protocol. Note that the Aces have connected on fewer than 30 field goals in all but one of their nine games to date this season. Las Vegas will undoubtedly be focused on rectifying its poor defensive play after allowing three straight opponents to connect on 33 or more field goals. Seattle comes off a strong offensive effort in a win and cover against Dallas. Note that the Mercury have been relatively inconsistent offensively this season, however, having yet to connect on 30+ field goals in consecutive games. We can expect their best defensive effort here as they check in off three full days' rest. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City over the Athletics at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll back the slumping Royals on Sunday as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Athletics. The pitching matchup sets up well for Kansas City as it sends impressive rookie Noah Cameron to the hill against Jeffrey Springs of the A's. Cameron owns a 4.01 FIP to go along with a sparkling 0.88 WHIP in six starts. He checks in allowing less than 2.2 runs per nine innings. Springs sports a 4.72 FIP and 1.30 WHIP and has been tagged for just over 5.7 runs per nine frames. While the bullpen matchup is relatively even based on current form, it's no contest when you consider home-road splits. The A's 'pen has logged a 6.41 ERA and 1.69 WHIP away from home this season while the Royals relief corps has posted a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home (with 13 saves converted and only two blown). Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Phillies will look to complete the sweep of the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon and I like their chances of doing so. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Toronto. He's been good but not great this season, logging a 4.36 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 14 starts. Contrast that with Phillies starter Zack Wheeler who has once again posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.97 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 13 outings. The bullpen advantage goes Philadelphia's way as well as it has recorded a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last week while the Jays 'pen has sagged to the tune of a 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Edmonton over Florida at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The Oilers were able to find that extra gear after falling behind 3-0 after the first period in Game 4 of this series on Thursday. It would have been easy to count Edmonton out at that point as Florida dominated the game's first 20 minutes. Not only did the Oilers rally to win that game but they also showed a lot of resiliency prevailing in overtime after the Panthers tied things up with 20 seconds remaining in the third period. While it is the Panthers turn to respond on Saturday, they'll be hard-pressed to do so on the road, noting that Edmonton is 32-14-4 on home ice this season where it has outscored opponents by 0.6 goals per game. Better still, the Oilers are a profitable 66-30 in their last 96 games as a home favorite while the Panthers have proven vulnerable defensively on the road (2.9 goals per game allowed), at least compared to their play at home (2.5 goals per game allowed). Florida has played an awful lot of hockey over the last 2+ years and I think it catches up to it as this series goes on. Take Edmonton (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Al Ahly and Inter Miami at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll lay the juice to back the 'over' at a very reasonable number on Friday as the FIFA Club World Cup kicks off in Miami. Inter Miami enters this contest having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last 10 matches. In fact, each of its last nine contests have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both sides finding the back of the net in eight of those contests. On the flip side, Al Ahly has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Also of note, it has been first to score in six of its last eight contests. The goal here will certainly be to put Inter Miami on its back foot early. While that's a tall task, I do think Al Ahly can find the back of the net once to help this total along. Take the over (8*).

Interleague Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Rays rallied for a 7-5 win in the opener of this series last night and we'll back them as they look to notch another victory on Saturday. Drew Rasmussen has been terrific for Tampa Bay this season, logging a 3.24 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.2 runs per nine innings. Mets starter Tylor Megill got off to a fine start to the campaign but has struggled since and owns a 3.15 FIP and 1.30 WHIP, yielding north of 4.3 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup goes the Rays way based on current form as well. Tampa Bay's 'pen has posted a collective 2.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last week while the Mets relief corps' has logged a 5.21 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves exploded late in an eventual blowout win over the Rockies to open this series last night. We'll call for Atlanta to beat up on Colorado again on Saturday afternoon. The Rockies bullpen is a mess right now having posted an 11.42 ERA and 2.08 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has logged a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while needing to work only 13 innings over that same stretch. The starting pitching matchup favors the Braves here as well. While Spencer Strider hasn't been at his best since returning from injury he still owns better numbers than Rockies starter Chase Dollander. Note that Dollander has allowed a whopping 7.5 runs per nine innings in 10 starts (to go along with a 6.30 FIP and 1.55 WHIP). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between the Athletics and Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

We saw plenty of offense in last night's game between these two teams and we'll call for more of the same on Saturday. Jacob Lopez will take the ball for the Athletics. He owns a 5.62 FIP and 1.71 WHIP this season and has allowed well north of 7.0 runs per nine innings. Michael Lorenzen has been good but certainly not great for the Royals, posting a 4.75 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 5.2 runs per nine frames. Meanwhile, both bullpens have struggled lately with the A's relief corps posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week and the Royals' recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Phillies took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night and we'll call for them to prevail again on Saturday afternoon. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for Philadelphia. He's quietly enjoying another solid campaign having posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings (that's a career-best). It's been a much different story for Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis. After a promising rookie campaign last year, the wheels have come off so far this season. He checks in sporting a 6.91 FIP and 1.56 WHIP and has given up just shy of 6.6 runs per nine frames. The Phillies also own a bullpen edge based on current form. Their relief corps has posted a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last week (working just 17 innings) while the Jays 'pen has recorded a 6.97 ERA and 1.69 WHIP while logging 20 2/3 innings over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Indiana plus the points over New York at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Indiana is expected to get a major boost with the return of both Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham on Saturday. The Fever turned in one of their worst performances of the season last time out as they were blown out in Atlanta. That snapped a two-game SU and ATS winning streak. They'll play with revenge on Saturday after dropping a narrow two-point decision at home against New York back on May 24th. The Liberty are still undefeated on the season and check in off an easy 85-66 win at home against the lowly Sky earlier this week. Look for the Fever to give the Liberty all they can handle on Saturday afternoon. Take Indiana (8*).

Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers took back control of this series with a stunning 116-107 win in Game 3 on Wednesday. We won with the Pacers and the 'under' in that contest but will go the other way and back the Thunder in Game 4 on Friday. Note that Indiana shot the lights out on Wednesday, connecting on 44-of-85 field goal attempts. Of note, the Thunder are a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot better than 50% from the field this season. Oklahoma City continues to control the tempo, limiting the opposition to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 87 or less in 14 of its last 17 contests. The Thunder have also limited 11 of their last 14 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals so we'll count on a strong bounce-back performance here. On the flip side, the Thunder will need to make adjustments offensively ahead of this contest. Keep in mind, they did get off a whopping 98 field goal attempts in the opener of this series and have hoisted up 94 or more FG attempts in three of five matchups between these two teams this season. I'm willing to bet on OKC getting back on track offensively in this one. While the Thunder remain winless ATS on the road in these playoffs, they're still 26-24 ATS away from home this season where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points per game. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We won with the Dream on Tuesday as they pulled away for a 19-point win over the Fever. We'll go the other way and fade Atlanta on Friday as it stays at home to host Chicago. The Sky check in off consecutive losses both SU and ATS. Their most recent defeat came against arguably the league's best team in New York on Tuesday. I look for them to rebound here as they catch the Dream glancing ahead at a two-game road trip that will take them to Washington and New York on Sunday and Tuesday. After allowing five straight opponents to connect on more than 30 field goals to open the campaign, the Sky have held two of their last three foes to exactly 27 made field goals. Meanwhile, the Dream have allowed three of their last four and seven of their nine opponents this season to knock down 30+ field goals. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

These two teams are headed in opposite directions out of the gate this season as the Alouettes rolled to a 28-10 home win over the Argonauts last week while the Redblacks dropped a hard-fought 31-26 decision against the Roughriders in Saskatchewan. Ottawa entered the campaign with high hopes after sneaking into the postseason last year. There's reason to believe the Redblacks can be a thorn in the side of upper-echelon teams like the Als and this is an early opportunity to make a statement at home. Note that Montreal benefited from three Toronto turnovers in last week's rout. The Redblacks didn't turn the football over once in their narrow defeat in Regina. In what projects as a relatively low-scoring divisional affair (the total sits in the mid-40's), we'll grab all the points we can get with Ottawa at home on Friday. Take Ottawa (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the run-line with the Braves on Friday as they open a series against the Rockies at home. Colorado is fresh off a come-from-behind 8-7 walk-off win over San Francisco yesterday. There are still major concerns when it comes to this cellar-dwelling club, however. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies on Friday. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez owns a 4.46 FIP and 1.68 WHIP and has allowed a ridiculous 7.9 runs per nine innings in 13 starts. Bryce Elder certainly hasn't been great for the Braves, but he's been considerably better than Marquez with a 4.30 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 4.1 fewer hits and 0.5 fewer walks while striking out 1.8 more per nine innings this season. The bullpen edge goes to the Braves as well. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over the last week while the Rockies relief corps owns a 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over B.C. at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Following five straight Grey Cup appearances, most are anticipating a fall-off from the Blue Bombers this season. Meanwhile, the Lions are expected to win the West Division and supported that notion with a win-and-cover thanks to a second half explosion against the Elks last week (we won with the Lions in that game). I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored as the Bombers open their 2025 campaign at home on Thursday, however. The Elks had the Lions back on their heels in B.C.'s home opener last week but simply couldn't capitalize and create enough distance on the scoreboard. In the second half, the Lions talent gap simply won out. I don't believe there's as much of a talent gap in play in this particular matchup and look for Winnipeg to get off to a strong start in front of its home fans. Take Winnipeg (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this play sets up on Thursday after the first three games in this series all went 'over' the total. After giving up six goals in a blowout loss in Game 3 and facing what is close to a 'must win' situation in Game 4, I look for the Oilers to respond defensively. Keep in mind, they've held opponents to just 2.9 goals per game on the road this season, with the 'under' going 27-23-1. The Panthers were stingy in Game 3 and that's about par for the course here at home where they've allowed just 2.4 goals per game this season. From my perspective, Panthers all-world goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky once again looks like he's rounding into form - at precisely the right time. I don't expect anything to come easy for Edmonton here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Thursday as they wrap up their series with the White Sox in Houston. Chicago will hand the ball to Davis Martin as he makes his 13th start and 14th appearance of the season. Martin hasn't been terrible but that's about where the compliments end. He owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while allowing 4.1 runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He has recorded a 3.08 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.1 runs per nine frames. The Astros have a considerable edge in terms of the bullpen matchup as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the last week compared to the White Sox 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. On the season, Chicago has converted just three saves while blowing five on the road while Houston has converted 11 and blown only 1 at home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

The two starters in this matchup have done a masterful job of limiting the damage this season. Andrew Heaney of the Pirates owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.15 WHIP but has given up just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Jameson Taillon has posted a 4.84 FIP and 0.98 WHIP and has held opponents just under 3.7 runs per nine frames. Both bullpens are in terrific form right now with the Pirates relief corps having posted a 1.52 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week and the Cubs 'pen having logged a 1.08 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

We'll take a flyer on the 'over' in Thursday's series finale between the Yankees and Royals at Kaufman Stadium. Seth Lugo will get the nod for the Royals. He's had a tough first half of the season, logging a 4.86 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 11 starts. While the veteran right-hander has managed to limit the damage somewhat, holding opponents to just over 3.7 runs per nine innings, he runs into a very difficult matchup against the Yankees on Thursday. New York starter Will Warren got off to a fine start to the campaign but the wheels have come off a little bit since. Warren owns a respectable 3.34 FIP but a 1.41 WHIP and gives up over 5.6 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are in poor form. The Yankees relief corps has logged a 5.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last week while the Royals 'pen owns a similar 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series and I expect them to complete the sweep in convincing fashion on Thursday. Hayden Birdsong gets his fifth start (16th appearance) of teh season for the Giants. He's been serviceable to be sure this season, logging a 3.60 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding just a shade over 3.6 runs per nine innings. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela checks in sporting an inflated 5.39 FIP and 1.97 WHIP while giving up north of 7.5 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest with the Giants relief corps having posted a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with three saves converted and one blown over the last week. Colorado's 'pen owns an ugly 9.35 ERA and 1.96 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the reeling Sparks as they look to put the Aces on 'upset alert' on Wednesday night. Los Angeles has lost four of its last five games and checks in off an 'upset' defeat at home against Golden State on Monday. Oddly enough, Las Vegas is also off an 'upset' loss against the upstart Valkyries. While the Aces are a respectable 4-3 on the campaign, I'm concerned by the fact that their offense has yet to get rolling, knocking down fewer than 30 field goals in all but one of their games (that did come against the Sparks in an Aces win Los Angeles will look to avenge on Wednesday). On the flip side, Las Vegas has allowed its last four opponents to make good on 42, 31, 28 and 34 field goals. The Sparks are capable of hanging tough with an offense that has connected on 30 or more field goals in four of their last six games. Take Los Angeles (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Giants run-line last night as they rallied for a 6-5 victory at Coors Field. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday, however, as San Francisco holds an even bigger pitching advantage. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Giants. He's enjoying a renaissance campaign of sorts having posted a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland who owns a respectable 3.55 FIP but a 1.54 WHIP and has been tagged for just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on current form. Giants relievers have combined to log a 1.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown (while working only 22 1/3 innings) over the last week. The Rockies 'pen has recorded a 7.01 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with one save converted and two blown over that same stretch (and they've been pressed into duty for 25 2/3 innings). Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

Order was restored in this series in Game 2 as the Thunder rolled to a 123-107 victory to even proceedings at one game apiece. Of course, at the outset of this series, most expected Oklahoma City to dominate and cruise to its first ever NBA title. Now as the series shifts to Indiana for Game 3, the Pacers have to feel they have a puncher's chance. Note that Indiana has held Oklahoma City to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series. In fact, the Pacers have been better defensively than most give them credit for, playing a physical brand of basketball and limiting three straight and eight of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS on the road in these playoffs and I think we see a bit of an 'ugly' affair in Game 3 that ultimately favors the underdog Pacers catching a handful of points. Take Indiana (8*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 2 of this series managed to sneak 'over' the total thanks to an incredibly high-scoring second half. I expect a different story to unfold now that this series is tied up at one game apiece and the scene shifts to Indiana for Game 3 on Wednesday. I think both teams were probably content with the pace at which Game 2 was played. The Thunder and Pacers got off an identical 82 field goal attempts but the difference was Oklahoma City's exceptional shooting efficiency (it knocked down 40-of-82 FG attempts). Of note, the Pacers have now held three straight and 17 of their last 20 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Their physical brand of defense has translated to postseason success to be sure. The Thunder remain an elite defensive team and they showed it on Sunday, limiting the Pacers to 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held three straight and 17 of their last 20 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts while the Pacers have hoisted up 85 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven contests. Take the under (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The knee-jerk reaction from most bettors is probably to back the Twins to rebound at home off last night's blowout defeat at the hands of the Rangers. We'll go the other way and back red hot Texas as it hands the ball to Jack Leiter against David Festa of the Twins on Wednesday. Leiter has been solid this season, posting a 4.22 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing only 3.5 runs per nine innings. While we're talking about a fairly small sample size of just four starts and 16 2/3 innings of work, Festa has struggled to the tune of a 4.51 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up 5.9 runs per nine innings for the Twins. The bullpen advantage is decisive in terms of current form and it goes the Rangers way as they've logged a terrific 1.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP (while working just 19 1/3 innings) over the last week. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen has had a tough time lately, posting a collective 7.48 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll back the Rays as they look to bounce back from last night's defeat at the hands of the Red Sox. Zack Littell will get the start for Tampa Bay. While his 5.05 FIP leaves a lot to be desired he has limited the damage thanks to a 1.09 WHIP, yielding just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Red Sox starter Walker Buehler got off to a promising start but has since faded with his FIP rising to 5.29 and his WHIP to 1.44. Buehler has allowed just north of 5.5 runs per nine frames this season. The bullpen advantage based on current form does go to the Rays, even if it is slight. That's still enough to get us behind them at a very reasonable price on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a wild extra innings affair between these two teams last night and I think we're in for another high-scoring contest on Tuesday. Logan Evans will take the ball for Seattle. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in six starts during his rookie campaign. Evans has allowed just over 4.1 runs per nine innings. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. He checks in sporting a 4.95 FIP and 1.36 WHIP and has given up north of 5.9 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen has held up well lately. The Mariners relief corps owns a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last week while the D'Backs 'pen has posted a 5.61 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the same stretch. One way or another, we'll call for offensive fireworks again on Tuesday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants will send Kyle Harrison to the mound against rookie Carson Palmquist as they open a divisional series in Denver on Tuesday. Harrison has been quietly effective since returning to the Giants rotation, logging a 3.55 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Palmquist as he has worked 18 big league innings, posting a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP while yielding a whopping 8.0 runs per nine frames. As you would expect, the bullpen advantage goes to the Giants as well as their relief corps has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last week (and a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season) while the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (and a 4.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only four saves converted and four blown at home) over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the White Sox in the first five innings on Tuesday as they open a series in Houston. Shane Smith has been quietly effective starting for Chicago this season, posting a 3.52 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. While Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has pitched well lately, he still owns a pedestrian 3.93 FIP and 1.40 WHIP on the campaign and gives up just under 5.2 runs per nine frames. While there's no advantage in terms of the bullpen, we'll stick to the first five innings and back the White Sox to stay on level terms. Take Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' 4.5 runs between New York and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We have an excellent starting pitching matchup to open this series on Tuesday. Max Fried takes the ball for New York. He's having another Cy Young Award-caliber season with a 2.79 FIP and 0.94 WHIP through 13 starts. Fried has allowed just a shade over 2.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be rookie Noah Cameron. To say he has impressed in his first five big league starts would be an understatement. Cameron owns a 3.64 FIP and 0.79 WHIP and has yielded just under 0.9 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens struggling lately (both have posted ERA's north of four over the last week), we'll elect to play the first five innings 'under' only on Tuesday. Take the first five innings under 4.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the surging Rangers. They'll hand the ball to Tyler Mahle. He's been terrific in his debut season with Texas, posting a 3.22 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing just a shade over 2.0 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Rangers bullpen has been outstanding lately, logging a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last week. Compare that to the Twins relief corps' which has posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. Minnesota will give the start to Simeon Woods-Richardson. He owns a 5.25 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in eight appearances this season. Woods-Richardson has given up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings. Take Texas (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Fever are coming off back-to-back wins and covers including a 79-52 dismantling of the Sky in Chicago on Saturday. I still think Indiana is limited in what it can do offensively in the absence of Caitlin Clark. Note that the Fever have gotten off exactly 59 field goal attempts in three straight games. They've been fortunate to shoot exceptionally well in all three of those contests. While Atlanta has struggled defensively this season, I see this as a 'get right' spot at home off Friday's stunning 84-76 upset defeat in Connecticut. Prior to that loss the Dream had won four games in a row both SU and ATS. Of note, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of Atlanta's eight games to date this season. While Indiana has had to make the most of limited shot volume without Clark, Atlanta has hoisted up 68 or more field goal attempts in seven of eight games this season with a low-water mark of 64 (in a game it scored 88 points and won and covered in Los Angeles). Look for the Dream to overwhelm the Fever offensively and improve to 2-1 in this series this season on Tuesday. Take Atlanta (8*).

My selection is on Washington +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The argument can certainly be made that the Nationals have the starting pitching advantage in this contest with MacKenzie Gore taking the ball against Griffin Canning of the Mets. Gore checks in with a terrific 2.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP and gives up just under 2.9 runs per nine innings on the season. Meanwhile, Canning has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. Admittedly, Canning has limited the damage, allowing just 3.2 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is pretty much even based on current form and as a whole, the Nationals relief corps has struggled this season so we'll back Washington plus the half-run in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Washington +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay first five innings moneyline over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rays got a jump on the Red Sox last night and we'll call for them to take control early again on Tuesday. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Ryan Pepiot. He owns a less than impressive 4.35 FIP to go along with a respectable 1.13 WHIP and has limited the damage in 13 starts, allowing just 3.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a different story for Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito. He's allowing north of six runs per nine innings and owns a 4.76 FIP and 1.63 WHIP. With no real advantage in terms of their bullpen, we'll back the Rays in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings moneyline over Chicago at 6:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Phillies took the opener of this series in extra innings last night. We'll look for them to get off to a strong start on Tuesday and back them in the first five innings only. Colin Rea will start for Chicago. He's been good but not great this season, logging a 4.32 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 13 appearances. His counterpart will be rookie Mick Abel. While we're talking about a small sample size, Abel has performed well, recording a 1.13 WHIP and 0.71 WHIP in 11 1/3 innings of work. With the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll stick to the first five innings only with the home side. Take Philadelphia first five innings moneyline (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati over Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Reds took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I can't ignore the value being offered with them on Tuesday. Andrew Abbott will get the start for visiting Cincinnati. He has logged a 3.44 FIP and 1.06 WHIP in 10 starts, yielding just under 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Guardians starter Slade Cecconi who has posted an inflated 6.12 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.9 runs per nine frames. The bullpen advantage goes the Reds way based on current form as well as they've posted a collective 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last week. Cleveland's 'pen owns a solid 2.05 ERA but a lofty 1.36 WHIP and just one converted save over the same stretch. Take Cincinnati (8*).