My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not sure that Game 2 of this series sets up all that much differently than Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. As I noted in my analysis of that contest, this isn't a favorable matchup for the Heat, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Miami's offensive ceiling appears to be fairly low, noting that it has not knocked down an identical 39 field goals in all three meetings with the Nuggets this season. In Game 1, the Heat actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts. I expect to see Denver tighten things up considerably from a defensive standpoint here. On the flip side, the Nuggets made good on 45 and 44 field goals in the two regular season matchups between these two teams but connected on 'only' 40 in Game 1. That was on just 79 FG attempts, however. This line may seem steep until you realize that Denver has outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points this season. Much like in Game 1, we'll again note that the Heat are 0-11 ATS after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less this season, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 5:30 pm et on Sunday.

We've made a bit of a habit of fading Padres starter Ryan Weathers and we'll do the same here as the Cubs look to bounce back from last night's shutout loss in San Diego. Marcus Stroman has impressed for Chicago this season, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 73 innings of work. While the Cubs bullpen behind him has struggled lately, this is still a relief corps I do have some faith in and the majority of their key arms should be in line to work on Sunday. Weathers checks in with a 4.48 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The Padres did win his most recent start but that was really no thanks to Weathers as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against the Marlins. While the Padres bullpen has posted solid numbers overall, it has had a tough time closing out games, already blowing 10 saves this season. Here at home, San Diego has converted four saves while blowing four as well. Take Chicago (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Vegas over Florida at 8 pm et on Saturday.

You have to figure the Golden Knights couldn't have their guard any more raised as they host the upstart Panthers in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday. I say that after Florida stole Games 1 and 2 in a building that's generally tough on opposing teams in Raleigh last round (it did the same in round two in Toronto as well) on its way to a series sweep. The Golden Knights are also coming off a loss in their most recent home game last Saturday against the Stars (before they won Game 6 in blowout fashion in Dallas). Here, we'll note that the home team won both regular season meetings between these two squads, including a 2-1 Panthers victory in their most recent matchup back in March. Note that the Knights check in an incredible 34-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Panthers have fared exceptionally well against Eastern Conference opponents this season, they're just 13-19 against the Western Conference, allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. Take Vegas (10*).

My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night but I look for New York to answer back on Saturday. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He's been roughed up in his last two outings but still owns terrific overall numbers this season with a 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. I can't help but feel the Dodgers bats are in for some regression after scoring six runs or more in six straight games heading into this contest. Los Angeles will counter with Michael Grove. He'll be making his fifth start this season and the results have been a mixed bag. Grove owns an ugly 8.44 ERA but has been better than that lofty number, sporting a 4.65 FIP. That's not saying he's pitched well, however, noting that he checks in with a 1.75 WHIP. As I noted in my analysis of last night's game, the bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup, however, the Yankees 'pen has been pitching far better recent, entering last night's contest with a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers 'pen recorded an ERA north of five over the same stretch. Take New York (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Dodgers dropped their most recent contest in Washington but I look for them to rebound in Friday's series-opener against the Yankees. New York will give the start to Luis Severino. He checks in sporting a sparkling 1.59 ERA in two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings. He hasn't been quite as sharp as that number indicates, however, as he has recorded a 3.73 FIP. In two minor league rehab outings, Severino logged a 4.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 2/3 innings. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be looking to bounce back after a string of rough outings but still owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 11 outings spanning 62 1/3 innings this season. He'll be making his second straight on a full five days' rest. The Yankees bullpen appears to have the edge although it is worth noting that the Dodgers bullpen has been significantly stronger at home than on the road, logging a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enjoyed a day off yesterday but will be back at it for the start of this three-game divisional series on Friday. The Mariners will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He checks in sporting a 2.93 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season. Over his last two outings he's tossed 12 shutout innings, striking out 18 and walking only four along the way. Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA but I don't think he's been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 4.64 FIP in 10 starts, spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. There's no question Gray has been terrific over his last seven outings but I do think he's running out of real estate in his current five-start undefeated streak. Prior to that he owned a 1-11 team record over his last 12 outings. The two bullpens are virtually a wash, although it is worth noting that Texas has had a bit of a tough time closing out games this season, converting 10 saves but also blowing eight. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'll lay the points with the Nuggets in Game 1 of The Finals on Thursday. Miami of course checks in off an incredible seven-game series against the Celtics, going 5-2 ATS along the way. Note that the Heat were contained offensively for the most part in the latter stages of that series, knocking down 42 or fewer field goals in each of the final four games. I feel Miami's offensive ceiling in this particular matchup with the Nuggets is rather low, noting that it made good on an identical 39 field goals in each of two regular season meetings. In fact, the Heat have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals nine of the last 10 matchups in this series. Denver on the other hand has made good on 42 or more field goals in six straight meetings and 45 or more twice over that stretch. While this line may seem steep, it's worth noting that the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 10.1 points on average. Also note that the Heat are 0-10 ATS this season when coming off consecutive games in which they held the opposition to 105 points or fewer, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Reds had their four-game 'over' streak snapped in last night's 5-4 victory here in Boston. I look for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting in Thursday's series-finale. Reds starter Hunter Greene's most recent outing went 'over' the total but it had everything to do with the Cincinnati offense as it rolled to a 9-0 victory over the Cubs. Greene actually worked six hitless frames in that victory, striking out 11 along the way. That marked his second straight start in which he recorded double-digit strikeouts. Greene has lowered his FIP to 3.62 and his WHIP to a still-lofty 1.38. It's worth noting that he should be in line for some regression to the mean in terms of hits allowed, noting he has given up 8.8 hits per nine innings this season after allowing just 7.4 in 125 2/3 innings last year. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.90 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work this season. Sale brings excellent form into this start having allowed just 10 hits and four earned runs in his last three outings, covering a span of 20 innings. The two bullpens have exceeded expectations this season. While the Reds 'pen has suffered a bit of regression lately, logging an ERA north of five over the last seven games, it has also converted four saves without a single blown over that stretch. Between the two clubs, they've combined to convert 31 saves while blowing only 13. Take the under (8*).

American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over New York at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series in blowout fashion but I look for the Mariners to answer back on Wednesday. Clarke Schmidt has turned things around to a certain extent for the Yankees over the last couple of starts, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings of work. He still owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.60 WHIP on the season. Of the 229 batters he has faced, 82 have reached base. The Mariners will counter with George Kirby. He got shelled in his most recent outing. It happens to the best of pitchers. That doesn't change the fact that he has pitched well this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 71-of-254 batters to reach base. As a testament to how impressive he has been, Kirby has worked at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash but I'm confident the Mariners can pick themselves back up at the plate and snap their two-game skid, noting they've lost more than two games in a row only once since April 30th. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Blue Jays picked up their second straight win in the opener of this interleague series last night. They'll likely need to get their bats out again on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Teheran has made just one big league start this season - his first since 2021. He held up well in that outing against the Giants but I think it's important to keep that brief start in perspective. At the Triple-A level, with the Padres organization, Teheran had recorded a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Of the 185 batters he faced, 70 reached base. Manoah has of course struggled this season, posting a 6.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP in 11 starts. You would have to go back seven outings to find the last time he lasted six innings or more. While the Blue Jays bullpen behind him has held up well, they also haven't had a day off (as a team) since May 11th. The Brewers 'pen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Braves got stunned by the A's in the series-opener between these two teams yesterday, dropping a 7-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back on Monday, behind impressive starter Bryce Elder. Elder checks in sporting a 3.46 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts, spanning 58 1/3 innings of work. Of the 237 batters he has faced, only 72 have reached base. He'll start on a full five days' rest after taking the ball on short rest in his last outing. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it has held up well on the road this season, posting a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He has actually gone two starts without the A's dropping a decision by multiple runs but Oakland has lost each of his last six outings overall. Sears owns a 5.15 FIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. He has displayed much better command than we've seen previously in his career, allowing just 1.7 walks per nine innings but will be tested by a Braves lineup that has drawn 178 walks this season (entering Monday's action). Sears hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season, leaving the A's poor bullpen likely to make more than a cameo appearance here. Note that Oakland's relief corps has recorded a collective 6.50 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season with only four saves converted and 10 blown (also entering yesterday's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'under' on Saturday and we'll come right back with the same play in Game 7 of this series on Monday. The pace has slowed considerably in this series over the last few games and there's little reason to expect anything different here. Note that Miami has now held 15 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Boston has been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight contests. The 'under' is now a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics facing elimination over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 199.1 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Saturday but we'll switch gears and back the Golden Knights as they try again to close out the Stars on Monday. Note that Vegas is 14-6 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season and 19-7 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. The Knights have been a terrific road team all season, going 31-17 and I'm confident they can come through for a second time in Dallas in this series to wrap things up on Monday. Take Vegas (8*).

American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen a major shift in this series, not only with the Celtics winning the last two games, but from a pace perspective. Game 4 saw the Celtics get off 84 field goal attempts while Miami managed to hoist up only 78. In Game 5, Miami got off only 79 field goal attempts with Boston attempting 79. Of course, the Celtics have shot a blistering 51.2% and 50.6% over the last two contests to get back in the series. I do expect a response from the Heat defensively here after Boston shot the lights out from beyond the arc in Game 5. On the flip side, we'll note that the 'under' is now a perfect 8-0 with the Celtics facing elimination in the playoffs over the last two seasons, allowing only 93.1 points per game in the process. That situation has produced an average total of just 198.1 points. Boston has now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games while Miami has held the opposition to 43 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 consecutive contests. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Stars have now been held to three goals or less in six straight games - matching a season-high. We've seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total. That's worth noting as the Golden Knights haven't seen more than three games in a row stay 'under' since back in January. We'll also note that the 'over' is 11-3 with the Knights playing at home seeking revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As we've noted previously in this series, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger appears to be wearing down and that's not surprising as he'll be between the pipes for an 80th time this season on Saturday. Knights goaltender Adin Hill has performed admirably but he's also faced a ton of shots in this series, 36, 28, 34 and 42 through four games, and will be starting a season-high eighth straight game with only one stretch of more than one day off between contests over that stretch. I expect both offenses to produce here. Take the over (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

I'm not convinced that this will be the pitcher's duel that many are expecting as the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Liberatore will be making his third appearance and second start for the Cardinals this season. He pitched well in his lone previous start, out-duelling Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in a 3-0 victory back on May 17th. The left-hander has yet to find much consistency at the big league level, however, noting that he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings with St. Louis last season. He has allowed 9-of-27 batters he has faced to reach base in limited work this year and I do expect the Guardians to apply plenty of pressure with their aggressive base-running on Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern should be the Cardinals bullpen as they haven't had a day off since May 11th and check in sporting a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Cards 'pen has converted only 11 saves while blowing 10. Shane Bieber has been somewhat un-Bieber-like this season, posting a 3.98 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. His walks per nine innings are up and his strikeouts are down (considerably). Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Compounding matters is the fact that he worked eight innings, throwing 106 pitches in his most recent start. The Guardians bullpen has been good but has had a tendency to cough up late leads, blowing two saves in the last seven games alone and 11 on the season so far. Take the over (8*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

The Tigers took the opener of this series by a 7-2 score last night - their second straight victory. Note that they've strung together more than two wins in a row only twice previously this season while the White Sox haven't dropped back-to-back games since a three-game skid from May 10th to 12th, quietly turning things around following an awful start. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the visiting White Sox on Friday. I have him pegged as a positive regression candidate as much like his team, we've seen him start to turn the corner over his last couple of outings. Lynn still owns a disappointing 4.71 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season but those numbers do indicate he's pitched better than his lofty 6.28 ERA. Note that the hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate, even by Lynn's standards, as he has given up 10.2 hits per nine innings this season, compared to his career average of 8.3. Lynn has also given up 1.9 home runs per nine innings compared to his career mark of 0.9 but most of the damage was done when he was struggling early in the campaign. He has given up just one home run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. Lynn should be pleased to see the Tigers as his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against them. Joey Wentz will counter for Detroit. He made seven starts at the big league level last year and pitched reasonably well. It's been a different story here in 2023, however, as the book may be out on the left-hander. He checks in sporting a 5.79 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through 38 2/3 innings of work. Wentz hasn't made it out of the third inning in either of his last two outings. While he will have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time, the same could have been said in his last start against the Washington Nationals and he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits over just two innings. Based on recent form, we can consider the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup. I do like the fact that White Sox relievers have only been called upon to work 23 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting three saves without blowing a single one over that stretch. Despite last night's defeat, the White Sox have had plenty of success here in the Motor City over the last 2+ seasons, going 12-7, outscoring the Tigers by an average margin of 6-4. Take Chicago (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

We've seen consecutive low-scoring games in this series as the Golden Knights have taken a 3-0 stranglehold, pushing the Stars to the brink of elimination on Thursday. Vegas took Game 3 by a score of 4-0 and that's notable as only twice previously this season have the Knights played on the road following a shutout with those two contests totalling seven and eight goals (both victories). While the Stars were held off the scoresheet in Game 3, it wasn't for lack of trying. They carried the play over the game's final 50 minutes, peppering Knights goaltender Adin Hill at times. There were a number of posts and near-misses - I'm confident they convert some of those opportunities on Thursday. Dallas will be without Jamie Benn (suspension) and Evgeni Dadonov (injury) but neither are consistent point producers (11 and 10 points in the playoffs respectively). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing a staggering average total of 8.7 goals. The 'over' is also 16-8 with Dallas at home having lost at least two consecutive meetings with an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that spot. There's been no letdown from the Knights offensively in similar situations this season as they average 4.0 goals per game when playing on the road after posting a road win in which they scored four or more goals. As I've noted previously, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has been extremely overworked, approaching 80 appearances this season (this will mark his 79th). His save percentage has dipped to .895 in the playoffs and .876 over his last four games. Take the over (10*).

National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mariners got a bit of a scare, if you can call it that, from the A's last night as they trailed 2-0 before rallying in the bottom of the fifth inning and ultimately holding on for a 3-2 victory. Sitting in fourth place in the highly-competitive American League West and staring down a tough upcoming schedule that will feature consecutive series' against the Pirates, Yankees and Rangers, it's important that Seattle makes the most of this four-game home series against the lowly A's and so far, so good with two wins in as many tries. Ken Waldichuk will inexplicably get another turn in the A's starting rotation on Wednesday. The left-hander has been every bit as bad as his 6.85 ERA indicates, logging a 7.28 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through nine starts spanning 46 innings of work. Of the 220 batters he has faced, 88 have reached base including a whopping 13 home runs. Things don't figure to get any better here as the Mariners get their second look at him this season and he starts on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season (11 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts on short rest). Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown this season. Impressive rookie Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. While he will also be starting on just four days' rest, I'm not overly concerned as he did so back on May 7th as well (against a much tougher opponent in the Houston Astros) and allowed only two hits over six shutout innings. Miller's numbers are terrific. He has logged a 1.78 FIP and 0.51 WHIP through his first four big league starts, facing 88 batters and allowing only 13 of them to reach base. What I really like about Miller is that he's shown the ability to work deep into ball games, lasting at least six innings in all four starts to date. The Mariners bullpen behind him, while showing some regression lately, has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only six blown this season (entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We're starting to see this total creep down following consecutive 'under' results to open this series. I believe it's the wrong move. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. This 2023 campaign hasn't gone particularly well for the Marlins ace as he checks in sporting a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings of work. He hasn't been as bad as that ERA indicates, logging a 3.59 FIP and 1.23 WHIP but there is still reason for concern as he has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs over his last seven starts and now pitches on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season. The Marlins bullpen has been overworked, having been called into action for just shy of 190 innings already this season. Note that Miami relievers entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Karl Kauffmann will get his second big league start for the Rockies on Wednesday. I'm confident the Marlins bats can inflict plenty of damage against the right-hander. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest after allowing 9-of-21 batters he faced to reach base in his debut against the Rangers last week. Kauffmann inexplicably got the call to the bigs after getting rocked to the tune of a 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 37 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He allowed a ridiculous 69-of-174 batters to reach base with Albuquerque. The Rockies bullpen has held up alright so far in this series but is still a subpar relief corps having entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Padres took the opener of this series last night and have now strung together consecutive wins for the first time since May 3rd and 5th. I look for their success to be short-lived, however. Ryan Weathers will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. I don't believe he's been as good as his 3.42 ERA indicates, recording a 4.46 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work this season. The hits haven't been falling in against him but we're bound to see some regression in that department, noting that he has allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season but gives up 9.2 for his career. Of the 92 batters Weathers has faced, 28 have reached base, this coming after he allowed 10-of-30 batters he faced to reach base at the Triple-A level earlier this season. The Nationals saw Weathers in the 2021 season, chasing him after 5 1/3 innings but not before plating four earned runs including two home runs on seven hits (while striking out only twice). Trevor Williams will counter for Washington. He's given the Nationals about what they expected, logging a 4.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through nine starts spanning 44 1/3 innings of work. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season. Unlike his counterpart Weathers, Williams doesn't hand out many free passes, issuing just 2.0 walks per nine innings this season. While the Padres bullpen has pitched well lately, I'm willing to consider that department a virtual wash in this matchup at least when you consider the home/road splits of both relief corps'. The Nationals 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season while Padres relievers had recorded a 3.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. As I've said from the start of the season, I do think the Nats' are well-built for the ballpark they play their home games in, even if they are just 10-16 here this season. I like their chances of answering back against the Padres on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Dallas Stars played a perfect road game on Sunday in Las Vegas - for just shy of 58 minutes anyway. It wasn't enough as the Golden Knights tied the game at the 17:38 mark of the third period before winning it just over a minute into overtime. Now the Stars are feeling all of the pressure as they return home for Game 3 on Tuesday. While all signs point to Dallas evening up the series, I believe the value is with the underdog Knights in this spot. Vegas goaltender Adin Hill has stepped in and performed admirably, stopping 186-of-200 shots (.930 save percentage) in these playoffs. While Hill is fresh, having only appeared in 36 games this season, Stars netminder Jake Oettinger looks like he might be running out of gas, and for good reason. Tuesday will mark his 78th appearance in goal for the Stars this season. In the playoffs, Oettinger has seen his save percentage drop to .901. Over his last four games he has posted an .882 save percentage. I absolutely love the Knights depth and simply feel that they're not going to roll over for the Stars with the scene shifting to Dallas on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that Dallas is just 5-9 when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Vegas is 22-10 when playing on the road coming off a victory this season, averaging 3.6 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. Take Vegas (8*).

A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

The Rockies return home licking their wounds after getting swept at the hands of the Rangers in Texas, outscored by a 31-10 margin in that three-game series. They'll be in tough again on Monday as they hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is with his third organization already this season, for his second start of the campaign. Since lasting four years with the Brewers from 2016 to 2019, Anderson has now bounced around five different clubs since 2020. I don't need to tell you there's a reason for that. Incredibly, only 5-of-35 batters Anderson has faced at the big league level this season have managed to reach base. I can't help but feel that regression is coming, however, noting that Anderson had allowed 37-of-100 minor league batters to reach base, including four home runs, in 23 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier in the campaign. Behind Anderson is an awful Rockies bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 189 innings this season including 30 1/3 frames over the last seven games alone. Over their last seven contests they've posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He was dealing with a blister on his finger in his most recent outing but appears on track to make this start on Monday. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for just the fourth time this season, having allowed eight earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three outings on four days' rest. Like the Rockies, the Marlins 'pen has also been overworked this season, called into action for a collective 183 innings, recording a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP along the way. Take the over (8*).

Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

The first two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the Heat haven't been involved in three consecutive 'over' results since their first round series against the up-tempo Bucks. The pace wasn't necessarily there for an 'over' result in either of the first two games in this series. Game 1 saw the Heat and Celtics get off 85 and 81 field goal attempts, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat picked up the pace thanks to trailing by double-digits for stretches, hoisting up 92 field goal attempts. The Celtics were once again stymied, getting off only 79 FG attempts. The Heat have now held five straight opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Game 2 sticks out as an anomaly for the Celtics defensively as they've limited seven of their last nine foes to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The last time they allowed 90 or more FG attempts in a game they followed it up by allowing only 79 in their next contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 25-14 with the Celtics installed as a road favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Dallas over Vegas at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.

Game 1 of this series obviously could have gone either way as the Golden Knights ultimately prevailed in the early stages of overtime to grab a 1-0 series lead. I look for the Stars to answer back on Sunday. Note that Dallas is a perfect 7-0 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 2.8 goals in that situation. The Stars are 14-5 off a loss this season and haven't dropped consecutive games since March 14th and 16th. The Knights, meanwhile, are just 3-7 when playing at home after winning their previous contest in overtime, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goal in that spot. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday as the Rangers continued their onslaught of the Rockies pitching staff in an 11-5 victory. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Connor Seabold will take the ball for the visiting Rockies. He remains in the Colorado starting rotation out of necessity only as he has struggled to the tune of a 5.12 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 10 appearances including three starts this season. Of the 131 batters he has faced, a whopping 50 of them have reached base. Behind Seabold is a Rockies bullpen that has been extremely overworked, logging a collective 33 1/3 innings over the last seven games alone. For the season, Rockies relievers have combined to post a 3.90 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will give Andrew Heaney the start. He's been a bit of a mixed-bag, recording a lofty 5.11 FIP but a respectable 1.19 WHIP. The hits simply haven't been falling in against the left-hander as he has allowed just 6.9 hits per nine innings. I do think we'll see some regression to the mean in that department, noting he has still given up 8.6 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. The Rangers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has really struggled lately, logging a collective 8.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just one save converted and two blown over the last seven games. Take the over (8*).

Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina -1.5 goals over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Panthers rallied to take the opener of this series on Thursday but needed nearly four full overtime periods to get it done in a game that could have obviously gone either way. This was poised to be a long series from the outset and home ice hasn't really meant all that much in this particular matchup in recent years so I don't think the Hurricanes will be too rattled by dropping the series-opener. The Panthers are headed into 'uncharted territory' - a term I've used on numerous occasions during these playoffs - as they've now matched a season-high nine straight games in which they've avoided losing by two goals or more. I expect that to change on Saturday. Note that the last time they put together such a stretch from February 28th to March 20th they went on to lose their next game by a 6-3 score in Philadelphia. Here, we'll note that the Panthers are 2-12 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive one-goal road victories, as is the case here. The Hurricanes have been stingy at the best of times this season, holding opponents to just 2.6 goals per game but that number drops to 2.1 when coming off a one-goal loss. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed a lofty 3.8 goals per game when coming off a road victory over the last two seasons. Finally, we'll point to the fact that 30 of Florida's 44 losses this season have come by two goals or more. Take Carolina -1.5 goals (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Orioles offense kept rolling along last night, putting up six runs in a lopsided victory thanks to tacking on a couple of late runs against a banged-up Blue Jays bullpen. In fact, both bullpens are probably a little weary right now with neither team having had a day off since May 11th. The O's 'pen in particular has been overworked this season, logging 167 2/3 innings collectively. It has admittedly held up well but figures to be pressed into action early on Saturday noting that starter Grayson Rodriguez has yet to last six innings in a start in his big league career. Speaking of Rodriguez, he checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.73 WHIP and will start on short rest (four days) for the fourth time already this season. He hasn't fared well in his three previous outings on short rest, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Of the 170 batters Rodriguez has faced this season, 64 have reached base including nine home runs in 37 innings. Alek Manoah has been an abject disaster for the Blue Jays so far this season. To make matters worse, like Rodriguez, he'll be starting on short rest here. Manoah owns a 6.45 FIP and 1.80 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 85-of-214 batters to reach base. The Orioles are capable of applying significant pressure on the right-hander, noting they're among the league leaders in stolen bases with 42. In fact, they've averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home. With the Jays bullpen still sorely missing Zach Pop and Adam Cimber and having logged 4 1/3 innings, using five different relievers, last night, I look for plenty of offense from start to finish in this one. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

The Angels were involved in a wild affair in Baltimore yesterday afternoon, rallying for a 6-5 victory to wrap up that four-game series. Now they travel back across the country to host the Twins on Friday and I believe we're in for a relatively low-scoring contest. Joe Ryan will take the ball for the visiting Twins, who were idle yesterday after a three-game series against the Dodgers, also in California. Ryan has been terrific this season, logging a 2.54 FIP and 0.84 WHIP, allowing just 43-of-192 batters to reach base. It really doesn't get much better in terms of starting pitchers this season. Current Angels hitters have gone 4-for-12 in limited action against Ryan with only one extra-base hit (a double from Mike Trout). The Twins offense exploded over a three-game stretch from last Saturday to Monday, plating a whopping 35 runs. Since then, they've been held to eight runs in two games and I expect them to be in tough here as well, noting they average just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and will face a southpaw in Reid Detmers on Friday. Detmers has been a mixed-bag so far this season but it certainly capable of giving the Angels a quality start. Working 129 innings last season, Detmers posted a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. While he hasn't been able to reach those same heights so far this season, I do think he's been better than his lofty 4.89 ERA indicates as he owns a 3.90 FIP. He has allowed a disappointing 10.0 hits per nine innings but I do expect some regression to the mean in that department, and a lowering of his 1.51 WHIP to go along with it. Current Twins hitters are just 8-for-35 against Detmers including a home run from Carlos Correa. In fact, that home run is the only extra-base hits they've managed to collect off of him. This matchup pits two of the best bullpens in baseball this season. What I really like about the Twins 'pen is the fact that it is one of the freshest in the majors having logged less than 150 innings collectively. Having the day off yesterday certainly helps their cause as well. The Angels 'pen has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). While the 'over' cashed in Los Angeles' victory yesterday, it hasn't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from May 6th to 8th. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 5-1 in the Twins last six games but they've still posted a 19-22-3 o/u mark this season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Heat pulled off a stunner in Game 1 to steal home court advantage and at the very least a split in the first two games here in Boston. Incredibly, the ATS winner has now won the last 28 meetings in this series straight-up including 13 outright underdog victories. I look for that trend to continue on Friday but with the Celtics coming out on the winning end this time around. It certainly appeared as if the Celtics thought the Heat would simply roll over and concede Game 1 after Boston took control late in the first half to build a nine-point halftime lead. Instead, the Heat came out on fire in the third quarter, took control of the game and cruised the rest of the way. Note that Miami knocked down 46 field goals in the victory. We haven't seen it connect on 46 or more field goals in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd (oddly enough both games were against Boston) so we can count on some offensive regression here. The Celtics have now dropped three straight meetings in this series (both SU and ATS) and that's notable as they haven't lost four straight matchups against Miami since 2004. Here, we'll note that the Heat are just 8-18 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, while the Celtics are 19-9 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home over the last two seasons. Take Boston (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Blue Jays are struggling right now, fresh off dropping three of four games against the rival Yankees here at home. I'm not as easily convinced that they'll pick themselves up off the mat on Friday as some and will back the Orioles at a generous underdog price. While the Jays have the more high-profile offense on paper, it's the O's lineup that has worn opposing pitchers out this season. Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi knows all about that as he faced Baltimore three times last season, allowing 12 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. While Kikuchi owns a respectable 3.89 ERA this season he has logged a disappointing 5.46 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Behind Kikuchi is a banged-up Jays bullpen that is missing two of its key arms in Adam Cimber and Zach Pop. Baltimore will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson for Friday's series-opener. I'm not going to sugar-coat it, he hasn't been all that good this season, posting a 4.39 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. I do like the fact that he's managed to work at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He has probably deserved better than a three-start losing streak, noting that the O's haven't given him a single run of support over that stretch. The O's bullpen doesn't get enough credit. Their relief corps' has logged a collective 2.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. Take Baltimore (8*).

Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Panthers enter this series on a season-high five-game 'under' streak but I look for it to come to an end on Thursday in Raleigh. Florida did have one previous 'under' streak last five games this season, that coming from February 24th to March 7th. I simply feel the Panthers are going to have their hands full trying to defend the Hurricanes relentless offensive attack in this series. While Carolina has become known for its smothering defense and back-checking, it has also shown that it can score in bunches. Note that in the only two games in which it held New Jersey to fewer than 29 shots on goal last round, Carolina ended up finding the back of the net a combined 11 times. In other words, if the Hurricanes aren't giving up a lot of opportunities, that only means they're spending considerable time in the opposing team's zone, and likely capitalizing. It certainly seems that the Canes have had Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky's number. They've faced him seven times since he joined the Panthers, scoring at least three goals in six of those games. Of course, the same could be said for the Panthers against Canes netminder Frederik Andersen, albeit with a smaller sample size. Since joining the Canes, Andersen has faced Florida three times, allowing a whopping 11 goals. The Panthers, despite being listed as the underdog in all 12 playoff games to date, have displayed a fairly reliable offensive floor, held to fewer than two goals on only two previous occasions. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 20-10 with the Panthers seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday.

The Dodgers are a team that we want to bet on right now and Julio Urias is certainly a starting pitcher we're looking to support as well. Urias didn't get off to the best start this season and still owns a FIP just above four as he has been giving up home runs at a much higher rate than we're accustomed to seeing (1.7 per nine innings compared to his career mark of 1.0). However, he has strung together three straight solid outings, lowering his WHIP all the way to 1.07 and I believe he's well-positioned to keep the positive momentum building in St. Louis on Thursday. Urias' counterpart will be veteran Adam Wainwright. He struggled in a few minor league outings earlier this season, allowing 20-of-58 batters to reach base while recording an ERA north of six in 13 innings of work. Since re-joining the Cards he has logged a 5.10 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while allowing 17-of-45 batters he has faced to reach base. Now he faces a Dodgers club that is certainly comfortable facing him having gone up against him four times (winning three of those games) over the last two seasons (nine earned runs in 22 innings). The bullpens are virtually a wash and both teams were in action yesterday. I will point out that Los Angeles has converted 12 saves while blowing only four while St. Louis has just eight saves to its credit to go along with 10 blown. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series in lopsided fashion and they're favored again in Thursday's finale. I do think the Guardians give them a run here, but rather than back Cleveland in an underdog role, we'll go with the 'over' as I believe this total will prove too low. Logan Allen will get his fifth big league start for the Guardians. It seems as if the book might already be out on him after he looked terrific in his first two outings before getting roughed up in his last two. All told, Allen has posted a solid 3.26 FIP but a less-than-impressive 1.48 WHIP in 21 innings of work this season. Of the 95 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base including two home runs allowed. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's been terrific in his last three starts against the Guardians (all coming last season) but I don't believe this is a particularly favorable matchup for the right-hander this season. As I've noted time and time again this season, the Guardians do put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers that have a tendency to put runners on base as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths. Cease certainly fits the bill as one of those pitchers as he has allowed 72-of-212 batters he has faced to reach base in 46 1/3 innings of work this season. Note that Cease hasn't come close to matching last season's scintillating numbers (he finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP here in 2023. Also note that he'll be making his third straight start on short rest (four days). The two bullpens have been a mixed bag. The Guardians relief corps has generally been terrific, posting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox 'pen on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 5.77 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Between the two bullpens we've seen 17 blown saves (compared to 24 converted) so far this season. The Guardians are still without Jose Ramirez and possibly Josh Naylor as well but that's been properly factored into the total in my opinion. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm just not buying what the oddsmakers are selling with the Celtics laying a generous helping of points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive ATS defeats - their longest ATS losing skid since dropping the cash in three straight games from March 25th to 29th. Prior to that you would have to go back to February 13th to 25th - spanning across the All-Star break - to find a previous occasion where Miami lost more than two games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, the Celtics have covered the spread in consecutive games. They haven't strung together more than two ATS wins in a row since a six-game ATS winning streak that stretched from the last two games of the regular season into their opening round mismatch with the Hawks. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup. The Celtics topped out at 46 made field goals in four regular season matchups between these two teams and that performance came in a game where the Heat were missing Jimmy Butler back in late-November (Boston won that game by 13 points). In fact, the C's have knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. That's not to say the Heat have lit it up from the field in this matchup, however, I do feel there's a path for Miami to effectively shorten this game, noting that it checks in having limited the Knicks to 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of six games last round. The Celtics have been a more up-tempo team than we've been accustomed to seeing as a whole this season, but enter this series having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 contests. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are just 9-21 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The first two games in this series both went 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Chicago has now seen the 'over' cash in a season-high seven straight games. Its longest previous 'over' streak lasted only three games (twice). The interesting thing about this run of 'over' results is the fact that the Cubs aren't actually scoring with much consistency. They've plated 4, 10, 6, 1, 3, 4 and 3 runs during the streak. The question becomes whether the Cubs pitching staff can turn the tide and I believe it can on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly will get the start for Chicago. He's been a bright spot in the Cubs rotation - turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.57 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts covering a span of 44 1/3 innings. Of the 176 batters Smyly has faced, only 45 have reached base. Chicago elected to essentially wave the white flag from the seventh inning on last night, keeping its best bullpen arms in reserve. The Cubs 'pen has struggled lately but still entered last night's contest sporting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in night games this season (4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP overall). J.P. France will get his third straight start in the Astros rotation having impressed in the first two. He got the call to the Show after posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Since joining the Astros, France has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 0.69 WHIP, allowing just 9-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind France is a terrific Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown this season (entering last night's action). Take the under (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series and they've done so convincingly by a 13-7 margin. I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Wednesday, even as they face New York ace Gerrit Cole. We've seen some cracks in Cole's armor lately as he has allowed 24 hits and 11 earned runs over his last four starts covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. While it hasn't necessarily affected him much in the past, he'll be making his fifth consecutive start on short rest (four days). The Yankees have managed to win Cole's last two starts against the Blue Jays, including a walk-off 3-2 victory in the Bronx back in April. The last time New York won consecutive Cole outings against Toronto (back in 2021) they dropped his next start against the Jays by a 5-1 score. Behind Cole is an effective but overworked Yankees bullpen that was forced into action early last night thanks to starter Domingo German's ejection. Note that New York hasn't had a day off since May 4th, complicating late-inning bullpen decisions. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt. After an up-and-down start to the season he has really settled in over his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run in 16 innings of work. In fact, since allowing 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis in his season debut, Bassitt has given up just 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his last seven starts, lasting at least six innings in six of those outings. The Toronto bullpen faltered late in last night's game but entered that contest sporting a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season. Closer Jordan Romano is well-rested having not pitched since Saturday. Take Toronto (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants have taken a pair of tightly-contested affairs to open this series and the Phillies have suddenly lost three games in a row following a five-game winning streak. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Wednesday as it sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Ross Stripling of the Giants. Walker has certainly had an inconsistent start to his 2023 campaign but has managed to string together consecutive solid outings entering this start, allowing just four earned runs on 10 hits and no walks while striking out nine over his last 12 innings of work. I like the fact that he has lasted at least six innings in four of his last six trips to the hill and will be working in front of a Phillies bullpen that has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. Despite the close game last night, Philadelphia kept most of its key relief arms idle after Zach Wheeler worked six frames. Ross Stripling will counter for San Francisco. He's bounced in and out of the starting rotation in the early going this season, making eight appearances overall. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.14 ERA would indicate, logging a 7.16 FIP and 1.59 WHIP with 47 of the 131 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Stripling has topped out at five innings in his four previous starts this season which doesn't bode well as the Giants bullpen has been a mess, sporting a collective 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 12 saves converted and seven blown on the campaign. Note that Giants closer Camilo Doval, one of the few bright spots in the San Francisco relief corps this season, worked the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams were involved in an extra innings slugfest to open this series last night. In fact, the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Twins last four games following a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that run of high-scoring contests to come to an end here. Bailey Ober will get the start for the visiting Twins. He has impressed since getting the call to the bigs this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. He did get tagged for two home runs in his last start but those were his first two long balls allowed this season. Of the 92 batters Ober has faced this season, only 22 have managed to reach base. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that wasn't up to par last night but has generally been solid this season, recording a collective 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. On the road Minnesota's relief corps has converted five saves while blowing only two. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He's enjoying another terrific campaign, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. Like Ober he has been bitten by the long ball over his last couple of outings but has still allowed just 1.3 home runs per nine innings this season and I would anticipate continued positive regression in that department noting he hasn't given up more than 1.2 HR/9 since the 2019 season. Kershaw has allowed just 48-of-193 batters to reach base and will have the benefit of starting on full rest (five days) here. He faced the Twins once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 7-0 Dodgers victory in Minnesota. The Los Angeles bullpen has settled down after a shaky start to the season, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Diamondbacks cruised to a 5-2 victory. I expect a much different result from a totals perspective on Tuesday as we have an unappealing starting pitching matchup between Tommy Henry of Arizona and Kyle Muller of Oakland. Henry will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days) and that doesn't bode well after he pitched a season-high 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outing. Note that Henry has posted a 5.01 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. That's after he had logged a lofty 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season but hasn't had an off day since May 4th. A's starter Kyle Muller was a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta in the offseason. So far this year, Muller hasn't panned out, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.95 WHIP with 77 of the 185 batters he has faced managing to reach base. The A's bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with four saves converted and nine blown. Note that the A's haven't had a day off since May 1st, obviously further complicating their late inning decisions in this series. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The oddsmakers did a good job of setting totals in the Lakers previous series against the Warriors with five of the six games finishing within 4.5 points of the closing total. We saw the totals edge lower as that series went on and here in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals we're seeing a significantly lower total than we saw in Game 1 against the Warriors. With all of that being said, I don't believe the shift is warranted. Last round I talked on numerous occasions about how the Lakers had a solid floor in terms of scoring production against the Warriors but not all that high of a ceiling. I believe we're dealing with a different set of circumstances here against the Nuggets, noting that Los Angeles has knocked down 40 or more field goals in six straight meetings in this series but has also shown the ability to break out, making good on 46 or more field goals in three of those six contests. On the flip side, Denver has knocked down more than 40 field goals in six of the last seven matchups in this series, making good on 46 or more in four of those contests. The Nuggets are in excellent form off a series against Phoenix in which they connected on 42 or more field goals in five of six games. The Lakers continue to afford their opponents a ton of scoring opportunities having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. While Los Angeles' offense did get bogged down a bit as the series went on against Golden State, that will happen when you're playing every other day over a 10-day stretch. Note that the Lakers have played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here, on four previous occasions this season (not including their season-opener) and have knocked down 43, 42, 49 and 43 field goals in those four contests, producing an average point total of 124.3 points in that situation. Take the over (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively high-scoring series-opener between these former N.L. Central rivals last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. While Cubs starter Justin Steele saw his last start fly 'over' the total in a 10-4 Cubs rout of the Cardinals. We'll continue to smash the 'under' button with Steele on the hill, however, noting that he has logged a 3.22 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 53-of-192 batters he has faced to reach base this season. That coming on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which Steele impressively posted a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts spanning 119 innings of work. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.95 WHIP last year yet was snubbed in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. So far this season, Javier has posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He has struck out 35 batters over his last four outings. It's also worth noting that both of tonight's starters will be taking the ball on full rest (five days). While the Cubs bullpen has wobbled a bit lately, it still owns a collective 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has posted a terrific 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 2.53 and 0.84 respectively over the last seven games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Yankees took the opener of this series last night at Rogers Centre but I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Tuesday. Domingo German gets the start for the visiting Yankees. He'll be making his fifth straight start on short rest (four days) and it seems to be wearing on him as he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out only eight in 10 2/3 innings of work. While German's 0.96 WHIP is impressive, his 4.37 FIP tells a much different story. The fact that he's allowing just 5.6 hits per nine innings is really the only thing keeping his numbers in check but we can anticipate some regression in that department moving forward, noting that he has still allowed 7.8 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He posted otherworldly numbers last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2023, save for a couple of ugly outlier performances against the Astros and Red Sox. On the season, Gausman owns a 2.31 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing only 53-of-196 batters he has faced to reach base. Both bullpens have been reliable in the early going this season although I do think the Yankees are in tough in that department given they haven't had a day off since May 4th. The Jays 'pen has been particularly sharp at home this season, logging a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. Take Toronto (8*).

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Padres enter this game on a season-long five-game losing streak following a disheartening sweep at the hands of the division-rival Dodgers in Los Angeles. Their longest previous losing skid lasted only three games (that's happened twice previously this season). I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they return home to host the Royals on Monday. Interestingly, tonight's starter for San Diego will be Michael Wacha who just happens to be the last starting pitcher to guide them to victory last week in Minnesota. Wacha has been handled well this season as he's yet to make a start on short rest (four days) and won't here either. He's pitched as well as the Padres could have hoped for in the early stages of the season as he has posted a 4.13 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. While he is putting a few too many batters on base for my liking, he's done a better job over his last two starts, yielding just five hits and five walks (and only one earned run) over 12 innings. Wacha's counterpart on Monday will be Brad Keller of the Royals. The other Keller, Mitch, was lights out for the Pirates yesterday and has arguably been one of the best starters in all of baseball over the last month. It's a much different story with Brad. He checks in sporting a 5.39 FIP and 1.77 WHIP having allowed a whopping 72-of-178 batters he has faced to reach base. Note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest here. Of course, the Royals bullpen hasn't been much better, entering yesterday's action with a collective 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP having converted five saves and blown six. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite as good as most expected but hasn't been the biggest problem either, logging a collective 3.92 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering yesterday's contest. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. In fact, the Rockies have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, matching their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four straight 'under' results, their next game totalled 14 runs right here at home against the Diamondbacks. I look for a similar story to unfold here as they open a series against the Reds on Monday. Hunter Greene will take the ball for Cincinnati. We were fairly high on the young right-hander earlier in the campaign but the numbers don't lie at this point and he has really struggled lately. Greene checks in sporting a 3.48 FIP and 1.49 WHIP with 61-of-176 batters he has faced reaching base. It gets a lot worse when you consider he has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits, including three home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 innings of work. Greene has pitched here at hitter-friendly Coors Field just once previously in his career (last season), allowing four earned runs on six hits including two home runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Connor Seabold will counter for Colorado. He's made just two big league starts so far this season but has also logged time out of the bullpen. All told, Seabold owns a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 39-of-107 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs in only 23 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Reds actually faced Seabold last September and chased him after scoring four earned runs in five innings. Both bullpens have held up better than expected so far this season but I would also firmly place both in the 'overworked' category at this point, the Reds' in particular as it entered yesterday's action having logged a whopping 38 collective innings over the last seven games. Also note that the Reds haven't had a day off since last Monday, which obviously doesn't help matters. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Edmonton over Vegas at 10 pm et on Sunday.

The Golden Knights rallied for a 4-3 win over the Oilers in Game 5 of this series on Friday. Now it's Edmonton's turn to bounce back once again as it looks to force a seventh-and-deciding game. I like the Oilers chances in this spot, noting that the Golden Knights haven't won consecutive games against Edmonton since back in February and March 2020. The Oilers haven't dropped back-to-back contests since February 25th and 27th. While Vegas has done a good job of keeping pace with Edmonton in this series and averages 3.3 goals per game on the season, that scoring average drops to 2.5 gpg when it checks in off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 3.9 gpg on the campaign but that number rises to 4.3 when coming off a one-goal defeat. Finally, we'll note that the Oilers are 13-3 off a road loss this season, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot, and better still, they're 19-5 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Take Edmonton (8*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday‘s series-finale. Andrew Heaney will take the ball for the Rangers. As I’ve noted on previous occasions this season, he’s pitching for his fourth different team since 2021. Heaney has struggled so far this year, logging a 5.73 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The A’s will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after collecting five hits and two walks over six innings on April 22nd. Drew Rucinski will get another turn in the A’s starting rotation out of necessity only. He’s been predictably awful in his return to the majors (prior to this year he last pitched for the Marlins in 2018), posting a 7.27 FIP and 2.09 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings this season. Of the 73 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base. To make matters worse, Rucinski will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). Of course, the A’s bullpen has been awful as well, logging a collective 6.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown. The Rangers relief corps has been far better but still has just eight saves converted compared to six blown so the door should be open for potential late offense if needed here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The Mariners are suddenly rolling along, winners of eight of their last 11 games and they'll look to complete the series sweep in Detroit on Sunday. I like their chances with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Gilbert was a hard-luck loser in his last start as he allowed just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers. He's sporting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season having logged a 2.69 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts spanning 40 1/3 innings. In his lone outing against the Tigers last season, Gilbert tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win here in Detroit. Wentz has labored through seven starts for the Tigers this season having posted a 5.52 FIP and 1.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-144 batters he has faced to reach base. The left-hander will be in tough here, noting that the Mariners entered yesterday's action hitting 14 points higher against southpaw starting pitchers compared to their overall batting average, also putting up 4.8 runs per contest. In terms of the bullpens, the Mariners hold the edge in that department as well. They entered Saturday's affair sporting a collective 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. The Tigers 'pen has actually performed better than expected so far this season but still owns an ERA north of four and just nine saves compared to six blown. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers bats were fairly lifeless against Padres starter Joe Musgrove last Sunday night but they still found a way to pull out a 5-2 victory in extra innings and their dominance over the Padres continued last night as they secured a 4-2 victory to open this series. Musgrove has been slow to regain his form since returning from injury. He logged 9 1/3 innings at the Single and Triple-A level earlier in April and allowed 15-of-43 batters he faced to reach base. Since re-joining the big club he has recorded a 6.22 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing 20 of the 60 batters he has faced to reach base, including four home runs. I believe it's advantage-Dodgers here as they get their second look at Musgrove in less than a week and face him for the sixth time since the start of last season (the Padres went 1-4 in his five previous outings). Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He should be happy to be facing the Padres for a second straight turn in the rotation, noting that he owns a career 7-1 record to go along with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them. You would have to go back nine starts to find the last time the Dodgers lost to the Padres with Urias on the mound. He hasn't gotten off to the start he probably hoped for this season but has settled in over his last couple of outings (save for a bad first inning against the Padres last time out), yielding just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. Urias currently owns a 4.13 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 54-of-185 batters he has faced to reach base. I expect some positive regression to the mean in terms of his home runs allowed as he has given up 1.6 long balls per nine innings, which would serve as the highest mark of his career (his previous career-high was 1.2 last season). Both bullpens entered the season with high expectations and haven't necessarily lived up to those. With that being said, both have settled down over the last week or so although the Padres continue to have a miserable time trying to close out games, blowing three saves while converting just one over the last seven games. They've already blown eight saves this season (while converting 13). The Dodgers 'pen has converted four saves without blowing a single one over the last seven games. In fact, they've blown only three saves all season (while converting 11). Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Stars have taken over this series thanks to consecutive lopsided victories. With that being said, it's difficult enough to string together three straight wins by two goals or more but to do it against the same opponent is even tougher. Case in point, prior to the last two games, the Stars had never even won consecutive matchups in this series by multiple goals. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch from March 1st to 4th to find the last time Dallas reeled off three straight victories by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the Kraken haven't lost three straight games by multiple goals since February 7th to 10th. Here, we'll note that Dallas is a woeful 9-19 when playing on the road after winning their previous contest by three goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. The Stars are also just 7-11 when coming off a home win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that spot. Seattle checks in 15-8 when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored five goals or more this season, which is the situation here, outscoring foes by 0.8 goals on average along the way. When playing with double-revenge this season, the Kraken are 14-9 having outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (8*).

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup will feature two underrated starting pitchers in Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs and Joe Ryan of the Twins. While last night's series-opener snuck 'over' the total, I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Wesneski will start on full (five days) rest for the first time in his last five outings. He's pitched well nonetheless, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts. After getting off to a shaky start that included six walks and three home runs allowed in his first two outings this season (covering a span of just six innings), Wesneski has really settled down and checks in having allowed 44-of-145 batters he has faced to reach base. The Twins have had to scratch and claw for seemingly every run lately, scoring 2, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5 and 2 runs over their last seven contests. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out in the early going this season and doesn't get enough credit for how well he has pitched over the course of his three-year big league career. Ryan owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.84 WHIP in seven starts spanning 44 innings this season. Only 38-of-169 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Both bullpens have held up reasonably well so far this season with the Cubs relief corps' in particular shining lately to the tune of a collective 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games. They did use two key relievers in Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. in last night's game but both have proven capable of working back-to-back games this season. The Twins 'pen has logged a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season and they kept two key relief arms in Jhoan Duran and closer Jorge Lopez idle last night. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday.

We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

We've now seen each of the last three games in this series stay 'under' the total after a wild, high-scoring series-opener that produced 10 goals. Here, I believe we're well-positioned to back the 'over' as the Golden Knights look to answer back following a 4-1 loss in an animosity-filled Game 4. Of course, both teams will be without a defenseman due to suspension in this contest with Darnell Nurse of the Oilers and Alex Pietrangelo of the Knights forced to sit. Neither has provided much offensive spark in these playoffs but certainly play key roles on the blue line and will be missed here. I believe Pietrangelo's absence in particular further opens things up for the Oilers explosive offense as the Knights simply don't have anyone waiting in the wings capable of replacing the veteran's steadiness in critical moments (most notably against a lethal Oilers power play as Pietrangelo works on the Knights top penalty kill unit). Here, we'll note that Edmonton averages an impressive 4.1 goals per game on the road this season but that number rises to 4.6 when facing division opponents (18-game sample size). Note that the Oilers will likely be facing Knights goaltender Adin Hill again here, noting that they've now seen him in two previous starts, scoring eight goals on 56 shots (good for a weak .857 save percentage on Hill's part). Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on home ice this season but that number rises considerably to 4.3 when coming off a road loss (seven-game sample size). Also note that we've seen the 'over' go 9-1 with the Knights seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. Better still, even with the 'under' cashing in the last three games in this series, the 'over' is 21-9 with Edmonton coming off an 'under' result this season, resulting in 7.7 total goals on average in that spot. We haven't seen four straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total since a four-game 'under' streak from April 2019 to March 2020. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The White Sox return home after dropping three of four games against the lowly Royals and I don't believe they're any better positioned to gt back in the win column as they host the Astros on Friday. Houston salvaged the final two games of its six-game west coast road trip to finish 3-3 on that jaunt. The Astros got a much-needed day off yesterday as their bullpen had been struggling over the last seven games but still owns a terrific 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only four blown on the campaign. That's in stark contrast to that of the White Sox. Chicago's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and proceeded to give up the game-winning run in the ninth inning against Kansas City. Note that the White Sox haven't had a day off since May 1st, further compounding their issues. Chicago will give Michael Kopech the start on Friday. He's arguably been even worse than his lofty 5.97 ERA indicates having posted a 7.53 FIP and 1.57 WHIP through seven starts spanning 37 2/3 innings. Of the 170 batters he has faced, 62 have reached base including a whopping 12 home runs allowed. J.P France will get his second big league start for the Astros. While he came out on the short end in a 7-5 road defeat against the Mariners in his debut, it wasn't his fault by any means as he gave up just three hits and one walk while striking out five over five shutout innings. Note that France earned the call-up after he posted a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season, allowing only 21-of-77 batters he faced to reach base. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We've now seen each of the last three games in this series go 'over' the total which sends Game 6 into 'uncharted territory', at least in recent years. I say that because we haven't seen four straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2016-17. The pace certainly wasn't there to dictate such a high-scoring result in Game 5 on Tuesday. Boston got off 83 field goal attempts in that game while Philadelphia countered with only 79. The 76ers quite simply shot the lights out but I expect the Celtics to make the necessary defensive adjustments here as they face potential elimination on Thursday night. Since allowing the Sixers to knock down 45 field goals in Game 1 of this series, Boston has held Philadelphia to just 31, 31, 42 and 40 made field goals over the last four contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have now limited each of their last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. In fact, nine of Philadelphia's last 10 opponents have gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts. The lone outlier came back in Game 2 of this series last week - the only game that happened to stay 'under' the total in this series to date. Here, we'll note that the 'under' remains a long-term 231-187 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday.

Thursday's series-finale between these two A.L. Central cellar-dwellers features a subpar starting pitching matchup between Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and Brady Singer of the Royals. The book seems to once again be out on Clevinger as he re-acclimates himself with the American League after spending the last couple of years with the Padres. Of course, Clevinger missed the entire 2021 season before returning to log 114 1/3 innings last year. He struggled to the tune of a 4.97 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and has been even worse in the early going this season, recording a 5.19 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts spanning 35 1/3 innings. Of the 160 batters Clevinger has faced, 56 have reached base including six home runs - all coming in his last four outings. Note that Clevinger will be starting on short rest (four days) for the third time this season. On the two previous occasions he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only eight innings. Singer has been a bit of an enigma in the first several years of his big league career. He had a terrific 2022 campaign by most accounts, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. That appears to be an outlier, however, as he has struggled again this season, posting a 5.40 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, allowing 57 of the 156 batters he has faced to reach base. Like Clevinger, Singer will also be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday. In three previous starts on short rest this season, Singer has been lit up for 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. This matchup also pits two of the worst bullpens in baseball with the White Sox relief corps' entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and the Royals 'pen logging a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Prior to last night's contest, the two bullpens had combined to blow 11 saves (while converting 11) already this season. Take the over (8*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Maple Leafs jumped ahead 1-0 early in Game 3 of this series on Sunday and might have thought the underdog Panthers would simply fold from there but that was far from the case as Florida ended up prevailing 3-2 in overtime. The Panthers have now won a season-high six straight games and while I won't make a habit of backing teams heading into 'uncharted territory' I'm willing to make an exception here. Toronto has now been held to exactly two goals in five straight games. That's just not going to cut it, particularly when you have a defense as vulnerable as Toronto does, noting that it has given up three goals or more in seven of nine playoff games to date. To make matters worse, the Leafs lost goaltender Ilya Samsonov to injury in Game 3 meaning Joseph Woll will likely get the start in goal on Wednesday. He's been sharp when called upon this season but suddenly has the pressure of Leafs Nation on his back after allowing the game-winning goal in overtime on Sunday, pushing the team to the brink of elimination. Note that Toronto is just 1-6 when playing on the road seeking revenge for two or more consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.3 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, the Leafs are 0-5 when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against a foe in which it scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Panthers have been an excellent 'positive-momentum' play this season, going a perfect 7-0 when coming off consecutive victories over division opponents this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 2.4 goals along the way. Going back over the last two seasons, Florida owns a perfect 5-0 mark after winning three straight games over divisional foes. Take Florida (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Edward Cabrera will take the ball for the visiting Marlins. He's coming off a 2022 campaign in which he posted a terrific 3.01 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a 4.59 FIP in 14 starts, spanning 71 2/3 innings. Perhaps that was a sign of things to come as he has labored through seven outings this season, posting a 5.13 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while allowing a whopping 54-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base. He'll be starting on four days' rest for just the third time this season having allowed four earned runs in 10 innings in his previous two outings on short rest. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He owns an impressive 2.75 ERA this season but again, that doesn't tell the whole story as he has logged a 3.88 FIP. The Marlins have seemingly had Kelly's number as he has faced them three times previously, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. That includes a start here in Arizona last season in which he was tagged for three earned runs on seven hits, including a home run, over five innings in an 11-3 defeat. Like Cabrera, Kelly will also be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season having allowed seven earned runs in 11 innings in his two previous outings on short rest. The Marlins bullpen has posted a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season while the Arizona relief corps' has struggled lately to the tune of a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games. In fact, over the last seven contests, the two teams have combined to convert only two saves while blowing five. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The last two games in this series both flew 'over' the total as the Suns answered back after digging an 0-2 hole in Denver with consecutive wins on their home floor. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair in Game 4 (it reached 153 total points) as the Nuggets hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while the Suns got off only 81. Both teams simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate a repeat performance from either team as the series shifts back to Denver on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 44-21 with the Nuggets playing at home after allowing their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field in their previous contest, as is the case here. Denver has been stingy defensively at the best of times at home this season, yielding just 108.5 points per game but that number drops to 107.0 ppg when coming off an 'over' result with that spot producing an average total of 225.2 points (Nuggets home games have averaged 227.2 points overall this season). The fact that the 'over' has cashed in consecutive matchups between these two teams is worth noting as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this series in the same season since the 2020-21 campaign (and in that case the third game totalled just 227 points). Take the under (8*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Kraken took control of this series with a dominant 7-2 victory in Game 3 on Sunday but I look for the Stars to answer back and even the series on Tuesday. Note that Dallas hasn't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 16th. The Stars check in a perfect 6-0 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. They're also 11-3 when playing on the road after allowing four goals or more in their previous game, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Kraken are just 2-7 when playing at home after winning their previous game by three goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. While Dallas did allow a whopping seven goals in Sunday's defeat, those type of performances have been few-and-far-between this season as it has been stingy, particularly on the road where it has given up just 2.6 goals per contest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.8 goals in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*).

American League Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mariners wasted another terrific outing from Logan Gilbert in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers to open this series last night. Now 4.5 games back of division-leading Texas and looking up at three teams in the American League West standings, I look for Seattle to answer back on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers. He had an outlier of a season with the Dodgers last year, an injury-shortened one at that, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work and that earned him a $12 million contract in the offseason. Not surprisingly, he hasn't been able to reach the same heights back in the American League this year, logging a 6.18 FIP and 1.30 WHIP through six starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. The Mariners will likely be happy to see their old friend (Heaney spent the majority of his career with the division-rival Angels), noting that they're 8-7 all time against him as he has recorded a lofty 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. After finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season he's picked up right where he left off here in 2023. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.05 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, allowing just 39-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. Note that he's faced the Rangers four times previously with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 with three of those wins coming by two runs or more. While it didn't play out that way last night, the two bullpens in this matchup entered the series heading in opposite directions with the Rangers 'pen having logged a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven games and the Mariners relief corps' having posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the same stretch. Rather than lay the considerable chalk with the Mariners here, we'll sacrifice a run and back them on the run-line, noting that 13 of their 17 victories this season have come by two runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Lakers thrashed the Warriors by 30 points on Saturday as Golden State had a miserable night shooting the basketball, connecting on just 36-of-91 field goal attempts in the loss. Hidden in that lopsided result was the fact that the Warriors held their sixth straight opponent to 43 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has now limited an incredible 19 of its last 20 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. I am confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back offensively here, noting that they've averaged 120.0 points per game when coming off a contest in which they made good on fewer than 40 field goals this season. We can project Golden State to have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game as the Lakers have now yielded more than 90 field goal attempts to seven straight opponents. While Los Angeles has hung tough in this series going back to the start of the regular season, I don't feel it has all that high of an offensive ceiling, noting that it has topped out at 42 made field goals in seven matchups. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 22-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. This is also one our favorite fade spots for the Lakers, as they're a woeful 5-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last three seasons. Take Golden State (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday and I expect more of the same as they open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday. Jake Irvin will get the start for the visiting Nationals. He's in the Washington starting rotation due to necessity only at this point. In his first big league start he gave up just one earned run on two hits over 4 1/3 innings but did walk four batters while hitting another with a pitch (and only struck out three). Note that in five starts at the Triple-A level this season, Irvin allowed 36-of-98 batters he faced to reach base and was tagged for three home runs in 22 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday will be Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander probably hasn't been quite as good as his sparkling 2.18 ERA would indicate, logging a 3.38 FIP. He does own an impressive 0.82 WHIP as he has issued just three walks in 38 innings of work. Some regression is almost a certainty at this point and here he'll face a Nationals club that has been at its best on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington just finished a series in Arizona in which it scored 17 runs across three games. Also note that the Nats scored 28 runs on 45 hits in a three-game series here in San Francisco last year. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. Nationals relievers have combined to post a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen has been among the worst in baseball, recording a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Rangers offense has exploded lately, scoring double-digit runs in four of their last six games. You still have to figure Mariners starter Logan Gilbert will be happy to see them on Monday, noting that he owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven career starts against them with the Mariners winning five of those games. Gilbert enters this start in excellent form as he has posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 36-of-135 batters he has faced to reach base. While the Rangers have been scoring runs in bunches it still might not be enough for tonight's starter Jon Gray. He enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts in 2022 but hasn't come close to recapturing that magic so far this season, logging a 6.22 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Of the 131 batters he has faced 45 have reached base including six home runs. Strikeouts have been an issue for the Mariners lineup but Gray hasn't been missing many bats, averaging just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Behind Gray is a Rangers bullpen that started strong this season but has fallen apart lately. Entering yesterday's game, the Texas relief corps had logged a collective 5.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, Rangers relievers have blown as many saves as they've converted (five). In stark contrast, the Mariners bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season with those numbers dropping to 1.54 and 1.11, respectively, over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

The Oilers routed the Golden Knights 5-1 on Saturday after dropping the opener of this series by a 6-4 score. I don't believe this is a series where home ice will matter a great deal, noting that both teams have been terrific on the road this season and certainly in these playoffs (combined 4-1 to date). Vegas checks in 28-15 away from home this season, outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. I mentioned the Knights are coming off a lopsided loss in Game 2 and that's notable as they haven't lost consecutive games by two goals or more since November 25th and 26th and that marked the only time it happened all season. Going back over the history of this series (since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017), the Oilers have never defeated Vegas by multiple goals in consecutive meetings. The Knights have been terrific when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, going 25-11 while outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Oilers are just 7-11 when playing at home off a victory by two goals or more this season and a long-term 18-24 on home ice after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday.

It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Sunday.

This matchup screams 'pitcher's duel' on paper with the Dodgers handing the ball to their ace Julio Urias against Joe Musgrove on Sunday. We'll go the other way, however, as neither starter has been able to find their form - at least not consistently - in the early going this season. Of course, in Joe Musgrove's defense, he's only made two starts since returning from injury. Neither outing went well, however, as he has logged an 8.16 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings of work, allowing 15-of-39 batters to reach base including four home runs allowed. Concerning is the fact that he also struggled in a pair of minor league starts, allowing 15-of-43 batters to reach base. The Dodgers saw Musgrove four times last season, scoring nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. Dodgers starter Julio Urias didn't have a good Spring, or World Baseball Classic for that matter, and has struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this season. Urias checks in sporting a 4.40 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing 45-of-160 batters he has faced to reach base. While he is coming off one of his best outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings against the slumping Phillies, he'll now be starting on short rest (four days) for the second straight outing - the first time he's done that since last season (June 29th and July 4th). Neither bullpen has been overly impressive in the early going this season. The Dodgers relief corps entered Saturday's action sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the Padres 'pen had logged a 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Needless to say, both lineups have the ability to put a lot of pressure on opposing pitching staffs and after a couple of low-scoring games to open this series, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New Jersey at 3:40 pm et on Sunday.

The first two games of this series have gone 'over' the total with the Hurricanes doing most of the heavy-lifting, scoring 11 goals compared to the Devils' two. Note that we haven't seen three straight meetings between these two teams go 'over' the total in the same season since way back in the 2013-14 campaign. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch that spanned between 2019 and 2022 (thanks to Covid) to find the last time any three consecutive matchups between these division rivals went 'over' the total. I would anticipate the Devils turning to Vitek Vanecek between the pipes in Game 3. He's played a big role in New Jersey's incredibly stingy nature here at home this season, where it has allowed just 2.6 goals per game. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 23-9 with the Devils playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Canes have seen the 'under' go 11-3 when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals in that situation. Finally, we'll note that Carolina has averaged just 2.3 goals per game with an average total of only 5.2 goals when playing on the road after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons (26-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

The first two games of this series both went 'over' the total (using the closing total for Game 2, noting the final score fell right around the number) but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Saturday. Yes, the Warriors continue to give up a ton of scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 15 straight games. However, there's been a method to their madness as they've held 18 of their last 19 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Lakers don't figure to be the ones to break through, at least not right now as they've knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and that's despite hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles turned in a poor effort at that end of the floor in Thursday's predictable Warriors bounce-back game. Still, the Lakers have held eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 15 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Warriors can still get hot at times, as we saw in Game 2 of this series, they've actually made good on 43 or fewer field goals in six of nine games in these playoffs. Also note that while the 'over' has cashed in the first two games of this series, Golden State hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak way back in early February. The Lakers have had just one 'over' streak last more than two games going all the way back to December 28th, but it was a long one with eight straight contests finding their way 'over' the total from March 26th to April 9th. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Vegas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Golden Knights took Game 1 of this series in a wild 6-4 affair that was probably a little closer than the final score indicates. Edmonton definitely didn't bring its 'A' game (apart from Leon Draisaitl) but it was still right there, pulling within a goal in the third period before the Knight sealed the victory with a late empty-netter. I'm confident we'll see the Oilers bounce back on Saturday. Note that Vegas hasn't won consecutive meetings between these two teams since 2020. Since then, the Oilers have gone 6-3 in this series. I've talked about teams heading into 'uncharted territory' quite often in these playoffs (both NHL and NBA) and I'll bring it up again here as Vegas has now won five straight games. It has only managed to win five or more games in a row twice previously this season and only once has hit won six or more consecutive games with that nine-game winning streak coming way back in late October-early November. Here, we'll note that the Knights have averaged just 2.1 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals when playing at home off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons (16-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Oilers have held opponents to just 2.5 goals per game and outscored foes by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest over the last two seasons (20-game sample size). Better still, Edmonton is a perfect 7-0 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more against a division foe over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. Finally, the Knights are 4-12 when coming off consecutive home victories by two goals or more in team history, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. Take Edmonton (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The A's took a wild one in the series-opener between these basement-dwelling clubs last night. I expect the Royals to answer back on Saturday. Ken Waldichuk will take the ball for Oakland, giving the Royals the opportunity to face a southpaw starter for the second straight game after seeing Kyle Muller last night. Note that Kansas City is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, nearly a full run higher than its season scoring average. Waldichuk has been every bit as bad as his 7.26 ERA indicates, sporting a 7.40 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in six starts spanning 31 innings of work this season. Behind him is a majors-worst bullpen that has logged a collective 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with only three saves converted and nine blown. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He's had an up-and-down start to the 2023 campaign after pitching well for the Royals last season (3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 153 1/3 innings pitched in 2022). Singer has been marginally better than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates this season, posting a 5.05 FIP and 1.52 WHIP (still ugly numbers, I know). After turning in arguably his best start of the young season in Arizona two outings back, he made his next appearance on short (four days) rest in Minnesota and proceeded to get shelled for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He's back on schedule here, pitching on full (five days) rest and facing an A's lineup that has just one hitter that has seen him before (Tony Kemp - 0-for-9 career against Singer). Two other A's, Seth Brown and Aledmys Diaz, have worn Singer out in the past but both are currently sidelined due to injury. The Royals bullpen has been almost as bad as that of the A's so far this season. However, on a positive note, they kept a number of their key relievers idle in last night's defeat. I mentioned Oakland's penchant for collapsing late with nine blown saves already this season. In stark contrast, the Royals have converted five saves while blowing only four. While Kansas City has just two home victories to its credit this season, both came by multiple runs. On the flip side, nine of the A's 11 road defeats have come by at least two runs with seven of those coming by four runs or more. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday.

The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Celtics made the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing in Game 1 of this series and ultimately thrashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 on Wednesday. I expect the 76ers to answer back as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. While it's difficult to term any playoff game as a 'throwaway affair' but I think Game 2 of this series did quickly devolve into that type of contest for the 76ers. They ultimately hoisted up only 79 field goal attempts (and connected on just 31) in that uninspiring effort. Of course, the Sixers had already accomplished what they set out to do in the first two games in Boston and that was earn a split. A letdown was almost surely in order. Here, I'm confident it will be Philadelphia that makes the necessary adjustments, noting that it allowed Boston to get off 92 field goal attempts in Game 2 - the first time in seven games it yielded more than 83 FG attempts to its opponent. Still, the Sixers have limited seven straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Philadelphia has allowed 110.2 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 104.3 ppg allowed when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here, outscoring foes by an average margin of 7.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Boston averages 116.1 points per game on the road this season but that scoring average drops to 110.7 ppg when coming off a win over a division opponent. Finally, we'll note that the 76ers are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*).

Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter Friday's series-opener riding 'over' streaks with the Red Sox having seen each of their last four games (all against the Blue Jays) sail 'over' the total and the Phillies coming off a three-game set against the Dodgers in which all three contests went 'over' the total as well. I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday. One week ago tonight the Red Sox put plenty of pressure on Guardians ace Shane Bieber but couldn't break through in a 5-2 defeat. Since then, they've exploded for 8, 7, 6, 7, 8 and 11 runs over their last six games. Of course, they've also allowed five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 contests but we'll get to that in a moment. While the Sox draw a tough matchup in Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Friday, I'm confident they'll be able to find continued success. After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has turned it around over his last several starts, lowering his FIP to 2.54 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those numbers are relatively on par with what we've seen from the underrated right-hander going back to the start of 2021. With that being said, I do think he's in for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed (he's given up just one in 32 2/3 innings of work this season) and what better opponent to contribute to that than the Red Sox, who have already mashed 46 home runs this season. I'll also point out that Wheeler has yet to work beyond the sixth inning this season and just twice in his last 18 outings going back to last year, leaving the door open for a struggling Phillies bullpen to step in and make things interesting, noting it has logged a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Chris Sale will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. He was terrific in his most recent outing against the slumping Guardians. That start came at home, where he's pitched reasonably well this season. The road has been another story as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three outings spanning 14 innings of work. Overall, Sale checks in sporting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP with 47 of the 134 batters he has faced reaching base. He'll be up against a rejuvenated Phillies lineup that just welcomed back Bryce Harper earlier this week. Harper proceeded to go 3-for-3 in his second game back. Table-setter Trea Turner enters this series on a five-game hitting streak. There's danger up and down the Philadelphia lineup and this is obviously a team built for its home ballpark, averaging 4.6 runs per game in 13 home games so far this season (compared to its season scoring average of 4.3 rpg). The Red Sox bullpen has held up well, much better than I expected at the outset of the season, logging a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, it does enter this contest having not had a day off since April 27th and we're talking about a relief corps that has been overworked, having already been called into action for 128 1/3 innings this season. I can't help but think some regression will be coming for the Boston 'pen and the Phillies lineup poses a significant challenge. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday.

This price may seem high at first glance but I believe it could be even higher. Scoring first (and early) might just have been the worst thing that could have happened to the favored Stars in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Dallas probably thought the relatively inexperienced Kraken would fold rather quickly and that this series might just be the lopsided affair that many were predicting after Seattle pulled off its stunning upset win over the heavily-favored Avalanche in Game 7 of round one just two nights earlier. Instead, Seattle answered right back and ultimately scored four first period goals before allowing the Stars to rally back from a two-goal third period deficit. The Kraken ultimately won that game in overtime but I look for the Stars to answer back on Thursday. Note that Dallas has now dropped consecutive matchups with Seattle after winning four of the first five all-time meetings in the series. The Stars have averaged 3.8 goals per game while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons (22-game sample size), as is the case here. While Dallas averages 3.5 goals per game this season, that number jumps to 3.8 when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest (10-game sample size). As I noted in my analysis of Game 1 of this series, the Stars have had Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer's number, scoring 13 goals in three games against him going back to the start of last season. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger didn't have his best performance on Tuesday but actually kept the Stars in the game over the final two periods of regulation time and ultimately stopped 39-of-44 shots. The Stars haven't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 16th while the Kraken's most recent winning streak lasting more than two games (their current streak) came when they reeled off five straight wins from April 3rd to 10th (note that three of those victories came against the Coyotes and the other two were against the Canucks and Blackhawks - all non-playoff contending teams). Take Dallas (8*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*).

A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday.

Mariners starter George Kirby was a hard-luck loser in his most recent outing, working eight dominant innings against the Phillies but ultimately falling short in a 1-0 defeat. His 2-2 record through five starts overshadows just how effective he's been in his second big league season. Kirby checks in sporting a terrific 2.93 ERA but he's arguably been even better than that, logging a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Of the 120 batters he has faced, only 31 have reached base, including just a single home run allowed and a ridiculous two walks issued. While Kirby's results against the A's were a mixed bag in four starts last season (ERA north of four), most of the damage was done by players no longer on the A's roster (Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt in particular). His counterpart on Thursday will be Drew Rucinski. The right-hander likely wouldn't be starting in most other big league rotations but such is the state of the A's pitching staff. Rucinski checks in sporting a 5.83 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I realize we're talking about a small sample size but the fact that 12 of the 28 batters he has faced have reached base is alarming. Also note that prior to getting called up, Rucinski had posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings at the minor league level this season. Prior to that, he hadn't pitched with any major league organization since he was a member of the Marlins back in 2018. Of course, it's the A's bullpen that is even more concerning. Oakland relievers have combined to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season with only three saves converted and a whopping nine blown. Contrast that with the Mariners 'pen, which has logged a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 1.21 and 1.12, respectively, over the last seven games. Seattle relievers have combined to close out 10 saves while blowing just four. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Brewers have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series against the lowly Rockies but they're well-positioned to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon as they send veteran left-hander Wade Miley to the hill against Connor Seabold of the Rockies. Miley is having a fine campaign. While he's probably not pitching quite as well as his sparkling 1.86 ERA would indicate, he's still been incredibly effective, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through five starts spanning 29 innings of work. Only 30 of the 115 batters Miley has faced have managed to reach base. Meanwhile, Colorado will give Connor Seabold a turn in the rotation after he failed to cut it with the Red Sox (a fairly pitching-starved team right now). In 18 1/3 big league innings last year, Seabold was lit up to the tune of a 6.38 FIP and 2.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-98 batters to reach base. He's been a little better pitching out of the bullpen for Colorado so far this season but that's not saying much. Seabold still owns a 3.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP, allowing 25-of-65 batters to reach base. It rarely gets better for the Rockies as the game progresses, noting that their bullpen has logged a collective 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with four saves converted and three blown this season. Compare that to the Brewers 'pen, which has recorded a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting nine saves and blowing just four. It's also worth noting that Colorado's 'pen has been pressed into action for just shy of 20 innings more than that of Milwaukee. Take Milwaukee (8*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*).

Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey and Carolina at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs to open the second round of the NHL Playoffs last night. I expect nothing of the sort as the Devils and Hurricanes do battle in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Wednesday, however. New Jersey has averaged 3.4 goals per game this season but its offensive production fell off a cliff in round one against the Rangers, partly by design. The Devils averaged only 2.4 goals per contest during that seven-game series and we got a pretty good indication of how they want to play in the postseason as they often sat back defensively, waiting for the opportunity to counter-attack, ultimately firing fewer than 30 shots on goal in five of seven contests. I don't think Lindy Ruff's team will want to trade scoring opportunities with Carolina either, certainly not in the first two games of the series here in Raleigh. Note that the Hurricanes offense wasn't exactly humming in the opening round either, averaging 2.7 goals per game over the course of that six-game series against the Islanders. The Canes have of course had to make some adjustments with Andrei Svechnikov - scoring option 1B to Sebastian Aho's 1A - going down with a season-ending injury late in the regular season and then losing Teuvo Teravainen to a broken hand in round one as well. Carolina boasts one of the strongest defensive corps of any team remaining in the NHL Playoffs and I believe that group will prove difficult to break down in this series. The Canes have allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season with that number dropping to 2.2 when coming off a victory over a divisional opponent (13-game sample size), as is the case here. It's worth mentioning that while these two teams have met eight times since the start of 2022, we could be seeing a new goaltending matchup here as Devils breakout netminder Akira Schmid has never faced Carolina while Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen hasn't taken the crease against New Jersey since he was a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs (he owns a 2.11 goals against average .934 save percentage in nine career games vs. the Devils). Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 157-109 with the Devils coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more, which is the situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The first two games of this series have been of the low-scoring variety with the two teams trading victories. I expect a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale in the Bronx. Shane Bieber will take the ball for the visiting Guardians. While he's pitched well in the early going this season, he perhaps hasn't quite lived up to lofty expectations. Note that his 3.63 FIP would serve as a career-high while his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings would mark a career-low. In his most recent start last Friday, he worked himself in and out of trouble on numerous occasions in an eventual 5-2 win over the Red Sox. Note that Bieber has recorded more than four strikeouts in a game only once in six starts this season and that's despite working at least into the sixth inning in all six of those outings. I'll also point out that this will be his first start on short (four days) rest this season. He owns a 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt remains in the Yankees starting rotation out of necessity only. You have to wonder if he's long for a big league rotation based on how things have gone for the right-hander so far this season. Schmidt checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 25 innings of work - a far cry from the 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP he posted mostly working out of the bullpen last year. Of the 119 batters Schmidt has faced this season, 44 have reached base. He's already been tagged for seven home runs. Now he faces a Guardians lineup that as I've mentioned on numerous occasions this season is ultra-aggressive and has speed to burn on the basepaths, having already racked up 35 stolen bases this season. They're going to apply plenty of pressure on Schmidt and you have to figure they're in line for a breakout performance after being held to just six runs over the last three games. Note that Cleveland entered last night's contest averaging 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. Both bullpens are elite and have certainly excelled so far this season. I will point out that the Yankees have used key reliever Wandy Peralta in each of the first two games in this series meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Guardians 'pen has been dealing with a tough stretch from usually-reliable setup man James Karinchak. I do think the terrific overall numbers from both relief corps' have been properly factored in when you consider this relatively-low posted total. Take the over (8*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams enter this series riding 'under' streaks. The final four games of the Kraken's stunning first round upset of the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche stayed 'under' the total while the Stars saw each of their last three contests against the Wild cruise 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold as the two teams meet in the postseason for the first time on Tuesday. While Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer certainly appeared to have the Avs number in round one, I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his heroics here in round two. Note that Dallas has faced Grubauer twice in the brief series history between these two teams, scoring nine goals in those two contests. It's actually a similar story for the Kraken against Stars netminder Jake Oettinger. He's been between the pipes for Dallas in all six previous meetings in this series with Seattle scoring 18 goals and no fewer than two goals in any of those games. Of course, it's not all about the goaltenders. We're going to need this game to open up considerably compared to what we saw in the latter stages of the two teams' respective opening round series'. Here, we'll note that while Seattle averages 3.4 goals per game on the season, that average rises to 3.8 when playing on the road off a road victory (29-game sample size), as is the case here. The Stars have been fairly stingy on home ice, allowing just 2.7 goals per game this season but that average jumps to 4.0 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more (eight-game sample size), which is also the situation here (Kraken won the last meeting 5-4 in Dallas). In fact, the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that spot producing an average total of 9.2 goals. While playoff hockey tends to be lower-scoring, I would argue that the stakes were similarly high for both teams - keeping in mind this is only Game 1 of this series - when they matched up three times over an 11-day span back in March (the Kraken were fighting to get in the playoffs while the Stars were battling for playoff seeding). Those three games totalled seven, seven and nine goals (the last result was aided by overtime). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The series-opener between these two teams sailed 'over' the total last night as the Padres cruised to an 8-3 victory - their third win in a row. After a red hot stretch at the plate last week (30 runs in four games), Cincinnati has cooled off, scoring only 10 runs over their last three contests. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Petco Park on Tuesday. Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball, noting that he posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 105 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year - not bad numbers at all when you consider the majority of his starts take place at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. So far this season, Ashcraft has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, working at least six innings in four of his five starts to date. Note that he held opponents to less than 1.0 home run and 3.0 walks per nine innings last season. He's once again keeping the ball in the park this year, yielding just one home run in 30 frames of work - that coming in his first outing of the season. His walks are up but I am confident he can regain his command and he's made up for it by increasing his strikeouts per nine innings and limiting his hits allowed. All told, only 36-of-123 batters he has faced have reached base. With only 16 stolen bases so far this season, the Padres don't tend to put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with men on base. Note also that San Diego entered this series averaging just 3.2 runs per game at Petco Park this season. Veteran Michael Wacha will take the ball for the Padres. He's been better than his inflated 6.75 ERA would indicate, logging a 4.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP through five starts. Not impressive numbers by any means but they're largely due to consecutive rocky outings in mid-April. He pitched reasonably well last time out, holding a good Cubs lineup to four hits, one walk and three earned runs over five innings. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that I believe is in for some positive regression having entered this series sporting a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On a positive note, San Diego has converted 11 saves while blowing only four (entering Monday's action). The Reds bullpen has actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. Entering this series, Cincinnati relievers had logged a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Blown saves have been an issue with six on the season but the Reds don't project to be playing with a lead late in this game (of course it's always a possibility). Both teams were able to keep most of their key relievers rested last night, especially the Padres, who got six solid innings from starter Blake Snell and only used two relief arms in Steven Wilson and Domingo Tapia. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring weekend series'. In fact, the Phillies saw all three games in Houston stay 'under' the total and enter the new week on a four-game 'under' streak. Meanwhile, the Dodgers seven-game 'over' streak ground to a halt in a 1-0 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday before yesterday's game snuck 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker. He's had a bit of a rocky start to the campaign and doesn't figure to turn it around against a Dodgers club that has given him plenty of trouble over the course of his career (4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 12 career starts against them). Last season, Walker faced the Dodgers twice, allowing five earned runs on 12 hits and four walks while striking out only seven in 11 innings. So far this season, Walker has been about as bad as his 4.97 ERA indicates, sporting a 5.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP with 35 of the 108 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his second start of the season after a brief return last week. He's certainly not in midseason form just yet, noting that he has allowed five walks in just 6 1/3 innings split between Triple-A and the bigs so far this season. The Phillies are seeing right-handed starters well this season, averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. Note that Gonsolin is unlikely to work deep into this game in just his second start back from injury and that's notable as the Dodgers bullpen hasn't been nearly as steady as we've become accustomed to, logging a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so far this season. It's been a similar story for the Phillies bullpen, which has posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

Game 1 of this series managed to creep 'over' the total thanks to a tremendous offensive performance from the Nuggets. That contest marked only the second time all season that Denver hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts in a game. I certainly feel that the Suns expected the Nuggets to employ a different, slower-paced offensive gameplan than they did in the series-opener so now it's on Phoenix to make the necessary adjustments defensively. Note that the Suns have only had eight previous what I would term 'outlier' poor defensive efforts - games in which they allowed 48 or more made field goals (as they did in Game 1 of this series). Following those contests, they've allowed 95, 128, 111, 121, 112, 106, 94 and 115 points in their next game, so a bit all over the place, but generally-speaking, they've allowed just north of 110 points per game in that situation, which is right around two points per game below their season average. All that is to say, I do expect Phoenix to bounce back from a defensive standpoint in Game 2. On the flip side, however, I think the Suns are still going to be in tough. Note that Denver has now held 16 of its last 19 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Only four of their last 19 opponents have gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts and one of those was aided by overtime. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive games involving the Nuggets for the first time since March 10th to 14th. Note that they've incredibly had just three 'over' streaks last three games or more this season with none of those lasting longer than four contests. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Rangers answered back with a resounding 5-2 home win on Saturday to force a seventh-and-deciding game in this series. While the home team has now won back-to-back contests, home ice advantage hasn't meant much in the long-term picture in this series with the visiting side prevailing in 14 of the last 25 matchups. The Devils find themselves in tough off that lopsided defeat on Saturday, noting that they're just 7-17 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed five goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goal in that situation. Say what you will about the Rangers up-and-down nature in this series but at least their best players have lived up their billing for the most part. Meanwhile, the Devils have received just four assists and a -1 rating from captain Nico Hischier and no points and a -3 from highly-touted pre-trade deadline acquisition Timo Meier. Jack Hughes can't shoulder the entire offensive load, noting that he has scored three of the team's 13 goals in this series but has found the back of the net just once in the last four games. Meanwhile, the Rangers finally uncovered some cracks in breakout goaltender Akira Schmid's armor on Saturday (he was pulled after allowing five goals on 29 shots). I'm comfortable backing the Blueshirts at an underdog price with all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin having been at his best on the road all season, where he has recorded a .923 save percentage with New York winning 19 of his 28 starts. I'm still not sure we've seen his best game in this series. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Pirates with a 7-2 victory yesterday, also marking their second straight 'over' result. Note that they've recorded an 'over' streak lasting three games only once previously this season and that came during a series at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the visiting Cubs on Monday. He of course flirted with a perfect game two starts back before allowing two earned runs over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Padres last time out. There's no denying Smyly has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, recording a 3.24 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. He's allowed just 28 of the 110 batters he has faced to reach base. In his lone outing against Washington last season, Smyly gave up just two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work in a 3-2 victory here in D.C. Of note, neither of Smyly's last two starts have stayed 'under' the total. He hasn't gone three consecutive outings without an 'under' result since back in 2021 when he posted a five-start 'over' streak. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was one of the big pieces coming over in the Juan Soto trade last Summer. Gore has been good but not great so far this season although his numbers are somewhat skewed by one bad outing in which he couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Angels back on April 12th (that game still totalled only five runs). Through five starts, the left-hander has logged a 3.53 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Walks have certainly been an issue as he has handed out north of 5.0 free passes per nine innings. However, Gore does have the ability to erase those walks thanks to his high strikeout rate. He is K'ing just shy of 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Cubs should help his cause, noting that they've already struck out 224 times this season - an average of over eight K's per game. The two bullpens are a bit of a mixed bag. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP but have converted only three saves while blowing four. Meanwhile, the Nationals 'pen has recorded a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with seven saves converted and four blown. What I do like about the two bullpens is the fact that neither has been truly overworked with the Cubs logging 97 1/3 innings and the Nats' working 96 2/3 frames. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Sunday.

The 'under' has now cashed in three straight games in this series and that's not a trend I expect to reverse in Game 7 on Sunday. Keep in mind, we've previously seen a six-game 'under' streak between these two teams and that's notable when you consider there have only been 12 all-time meetings. Similarly, the Avalanche's current three-game 'under' streak has been topped by four previous 'under' runs lasting four games or more this season and that includes a December stretch that saw nine straight games stay 'under' the total. The Kraken have had three previous 'under' streaks lasting more than three games this season as well. We know Seattle will want to make this game as ugly as possible as it looks to pull off the major round one upset in enemy territory. Note that the 'under' is 22-11 with Seattle coming off a game in which it allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 24-17-3 in Colorado's home games this season, where it has given up just 2.7 goals per contest. Take the under (10*).